19 Burst results for "Lynton crosby"
"lynton crosby" Discussed on Reasons to be Cheerful
"With ED milliband and Jeff Lloyd. We are getting opportunity for four hundred million of the unemployed especially the young men who have defended. Let them go into forestry plug prevention and if you visited Paul we killing birds with one stone. We have clearly enhancing the value of all naturally office. And it's the same time relieving appreciable amount of that Cuba stress and we have been serving. Not only are Matt. Believe that often. Hello Hello so what is what is that a mystery voice competition. That's your great Uncle Cyril. Isn't it tell us by great uncle? Cyril well as you could hear half dollar Franklin Roosevelt rather than your Uncle Cyril it. His fireside chats in one thousand nine hundred thirty three and Franklin Roosevelt was. The president came in during the. Great Depression basically decided. The government shouldn't stand idly by and not do anything to help people and put people back to work and put people back to work he did including the civilian conservation corps. Where I think I'm right in saying that three million Men and it wasn't men. I will put back to work in the in the great outdoors. That clip was from Ed's personal collection of FDR's fireside chats if you ever lucky enough to give you a lift somewhere. He doesn't have music playing in his car. He just has those on on the loop completely right as well as sort of back copies of the Labor Party conference and also and also actually sort of teach yourself Italian CD where. I've never really got Paul's the first one which chat Makina which we're all very good at saying but we didn't really get really too much pulsa anyway. The relevance will this this week. We're talking about youth unemployment and the impact of the crisis on young people the resolution foundation projects that more than a million young people could be unemployed by the end of this year in the UK. We know that young people are always hit badly by recessions but even more so in the current crisis given young people are more likely to work in the hospitality industry shutdown and elsewhere. So we're exploring ideas for how to create opportunities. Young People's we recover from this crisis. We looking at the lessons from the past including the new deal in America in the Nineteen Thirties and that civilian conservation corps. That I mentioned. We'RE TALKING TO HISTORIAN. David Welna about those lessons than we're talking to Anna me from the features foundation and Kathleen Hanna from the resolution foundation. We'LL BE ASKING THEM. How government can address the problems of youth unemployment today then finally looking at it. I really exciting idea for youth environment service. Which could both address unemployment and help tackle the climate emergency? We're talking to Martin more from King's College London that Oh sounds good. Do you want to tell us about your reason to be cheerful this week? If you're sharing the days you know I got quite into the animal memes in this in this period and my son. Daniel turning eleven on the second of June. I think I'm going say it's the perfect present but basically you can do at zoom cool with a goat the higher and so. We thought we'd have that do that on his thighs. Little family thing especially you can find out all about the goats personalities. there's Mary Ambivalence Limited attention span Turkey Fine Ping in front of you. Who just go I on but Young Cup is shaking Susan and naturally inquisitive fellow Catholic. Let's talk space exploration. What good farming on Mars excellent sci-fi International Space Trouble Camera headbutting? Anyway basically. I think there's a farm. There's obviously facing difficulties result of Corona virus and they've been relatively inventive and you can get spent time with the go. You can also hire go if you've got a business meeting and you want to go on your zoom call as well. This is fantastic. Especially if you've got a a difficult business meeting where maybe you've got some disappointing sales figures to show US something. They the dead cat strategy. Don't they way you put something Onto the table. That is such a distraction that nobody talks about what was going on in the medical ready and they know used as a political technique. This is far better. The live goats straps very good live goats dressy replaces the dead cat strategy. I mean positive umbrella. Lynton crosby lookout just not coming to but no you'll goats but the hopefully go otherwise would no longer be the live goat. What's your reason to be? Cheerful careful is so obviously my son's nursery at the moment so I'm spending more time with him even than I usually do. Which means more screen time than we usually allow him and found this great thing on. Cbgb's called Nick Copes. Cast where A friendly feller probably have a similar age to us Comes on and Kids Colin via videophone. It's all set up by these so called in by video phone and gave him a subject and he writes a song on that subject and they. They do a lovely animation. And it's just really lovely preschool children's television. I thought this guy looks. He's just got the look of somebody who in a former life would have been some kind of Popstar or in a band so I googled him and he was in a bank the candy skins do you remember them. I to say I told preferred their early stuff before they had those artistic tensions whether they were from Oxford. And I'm I'm guessing. They came up in the late eighties when you would been university there so you probably Dan. The front in the mushed wasn't much candy skin's gigs and yeah he was. He was the he was the guy from that band to. I always enjoyed back in the day and not only that he comes from a show business family. His Dad played up Kirk in Randall. And Hop Kirk deceased. Wow now picture addressed. Yeah that's definitely a reason to be cheerful kokoska question in this context of of our children. Which is is it. Okay to be economical with the truth about the tooth fairy. The reason I ask is the Daniel who ten lost a tooth. I don't think he told us he. The tooth under the pillow nichols nothing happened. And I've got to make a confessional. I've gone to increasingly elaborate methods to try and keep the mythology of the tooth fairy going including sort of saying the free phone number where you've got to ring in to say that there's been a tooth pulling out. There's been problems to do with the current lockdown and crisis for the to the tooth fairies in lockdown the not considered a key worker. So so that's why you think what's the sort of balance of well. Psa balance of kind of you sort of wool sort of wolf allowed. Fine I think people overthink this stuff. I think firstly. He is testing a little bit anyway by having. So he's figuring out himself but secondly I don't get too hung up about it because you know it's a good lesson to learn about life that life is full of lies and disappointments anyways. I mean how would it be how? How just get bear with me here? How would you feel if I said the written a sort of an article? We've proportion from the Guardian by Terry McCafferty and Bob Filling about the crisis of the teeth. Barry was I was facing in order to make it kind of make credible without the alright. Yeah I think we don't like to read the article. Can we put in the newsletters? I'm sure you could. Maybe Joe Can. The problem is that I saw but I kind of I kind of was in this from about whether I was pretending it was true. We'll just having a joke so I left interior cavity and Bob Filling. They then they then Google Bob Filling and of course feeling doesn't exist so it's stretching stretching credibility. I felt like I needed a bit of a raised eyebrow. It it I think is that they want to carry on believing in it because they're worried about the flow of funds stopping when they start believing in it and so it sort of slightly playing along with us. I think it's fine and I think if we ever need a week off what they call. Bob McCafferty Terry McCafferty and Bob Above filling. They can stand in for.
"lynton crosby" Discussed on Monocle 24: The Briefing
"Strategist Isaac La Vida. Here's a look at who the heck he even is at the end of this month. The United Kingdom will leave the European Union and in so doing fulfill the key election pledge of conservative prime minister. Boris Johnson. To you get brexit done. We have followed that. He's paralyzed blocked. Dinner Lean capable of functioning as Anaconda that swallowed the neither moving one way on the other. He's lean except of course that brexit will not get done on January thirty first Brexit exit will not get close to done on January thirty first if and when Brexit can truly be said to have got done it will be still further pointless tedious Diaz wasted years from now but none of this matters to the Prime Minister and party. Who promised to do it? What does matter at least to them is that they won a thumping majority in last month's general election for that the Tories Oak considerable thanks and have doubtless already paid considerable? Money to a rashly officially beaded thirty something from Port Macquarie New South Wales who served as the Party's campaign director. His name is Isaac Lovato. It is. It's always hard to know how much credit to extend to such figures. Strategists spin-doctors string-pullers special advisers. It seems reasonable to assume the people capable of subtly manipulating public opinion in favor of their paymasters Also able to cunningly inflate their own reputation for being able to do so but there is little doubt that Levino presently basks in the warmest regard of the recently returned conservatives Dominic Cummings Boris orest Johnson's senior adviser and a man not known for self deprecation in much. The same way that circles are not known for being square has described Libido As a hundred times better at running campaigns than me so who exactly is is a collado and how did he get here. La Vida learned his trade from his fellow. Australian Lynton Crosby a veteran political strategist. Who has made something of a speciality of coordinating somewhat belligerent and populist campaigns for parties wrightwood of center in Australia and elsewhere though crosby's record in the UK is not one of unalloyed success excess? He did twice help. Boris Johnson get elected mayor of London no small accomplishment in a city not generally hospitable to conservatives Isaac veto worked on Crosby's twenty seventeen general election campaign for Theresa May an enduring. Listen perhaps in what not to do as a nation. We face the most important potent five years. I can remember. That is why I took the decision to call a general election so that we have a strong and stable leadership we need old to see us through brexit and beyond but La Vida made his name properly back in Australia in two thousand eighteen where he served as deputy director of the Liberal Party party. Australia's annoyingly named Conservative Party in May two thousand nineteen the Liberals led by incumbent. Prime Minister Scott Morrison steeled themselves also a general election which nobody believed they could win. With the apparent exception of Isaac La Vida veto helped create a strategy which relied on a ruthless roofless focus on the merits of the prime minister such as they were the shortcomings of the opposition leader and brutally simple messaging. It was a template readily adaptable optimal to Boris Johnson. Jeremy Corbyn and getting brexit done as is proper for a habit to of the shadows. LA- Vito has done little press press and let little be known about him. The impression conveyed by colleagues however is far from that of a fire breathing bully reports to Picton Ernest. Decisive voices won't see working eighteen hour days and maintaining a clear focus on what is required for victory undistracted by the gaffes bloopers or short circuits of the candidate which in a campaign for Boris Johnson must require a superhuman serenity libido and his pair of young New Zealander Digital Gurus. Ben guerin and Sean topping also understood that social media campaigns need to be effective rather than outwardly sophisticated. They were clearly on embarrassed to be seen pushing what looked to anybody but angry. Daily Mail reading pensioners like absurd amateurish. Nonsense Libido was not however shy about removing other senior Tories from the spotlight. At the end of Shepherd's Crook early in the campaign at related would housing and Mannequin Jacob. Rees Mogg intoned some ill-advised remarks about the victims of the two thousand seventeen grenfell tower disaster. I think if either of us were in a fire whatever the brigade said we would leave the burning building. It just seems the common sense thing to do and it is such a tragedy that that didn't happen but I didn't do with race or class. Rees MOGG has has bailey been heard from since and for that much. Even the most ardent remainder should extend Isaac La Vida Victory Chewed for monocle twenty four. I'm Andrew Mullen monocle rolex. Bring you the pioneers. For the founder of Rolex Hands Wills dove the world was like Living Laboratory. He began to use it as a testing in ground for his watches from the nineteen thirties. Sending them to the most extreme locations supporting explorers who ventured into the unknown but the world has changed as the twenty for century unfolds..
Who Is Isaac Levido?
"At the end of this month. The United Kingdom will leave the European Union and in so doing fulfill the key election pledge of conservative prime minister. Boris Johnson. To you get brexit done. We have followed that. He's paralyzed blocked. Dinner Lean capable of functioning as Anaconda that swallowed the neither moving one way on the other. He's lean except of course that brexit will not get done on January thirty first Brexit exit will not get close to done on January thirty first if and when Brexit can truly be said to have got done it will be still further pointless tedious Diaz wasted years from now but none of this matters to the Prime Minister and party. Who promised to do it? What does matter at least to them is that they won a thumping majority in last month's general election for that the Tories Oak considerable thanks and have doubtless already paid considerable? Money to a rashly officially beaded thirty something from Port Macquarie New South Wales who served as the Party's campaign director. His name is Isaac Lovato. It is. It's always hard to know how much credit to extend to such figures. Strategists spin-doctors string-pullers special advisers. It seems reasonable to assume the people capable of subtly manipulating public opinion in favor of their paymasters Also able to cunningly inflate their own reputation for being able to do so but there is little doubt that Levino presently basks in the warmest regard of the recently returned conservatives Dominic Cummings Boris orest Johnson's senior adviser and a man not known for self deprecation in much. The same way that circles are not known for being square has described Libido As a hundred times better at running campaigns than me so who exactly is is a collado and how did he get here. La Vida learned his trade from his fellow. Australian Lynton Crosby a veteran political strategist. Who has made something of a speciality of coordinating somewhat belligerent and populist campaigns for parties wrightwood of center in Australia and elsewhere though crosby's record in the UK is not one of unalloyed success excess? He did twice help. Boris Johnson get elected mayor of London no small accomplishment in a city not generally hospitable to conservatives Isaac veto worked on Crosby's twenty seventeen general election campaign for Theresa May an enduring. Listen perhaps in what not to do as a nation. We face the most important potent five years. I can remember. That is why I took the decision to call a general election so that we have a strong and stable leadership we need old to see us through brexit and beyond but La Vida made his name properly back in Australia in two thousand eighteen where he served as deputy director of the Liberal Party party. Australia's annoyingly named Conservative Party in May two thousand nineteen the Liberals led by incumbent. Prime Minister Scott Morrison steeled themselves also a general election which nobody believed they could win. With the apparent exception of Isaac La Vida veto helped create a strategy which relied on a ruthless roofless focus on the merits of the prime minister such as they were the shortcomings of the opposition leader and brutally simple messaging. It was a template readily adaptable optimal to Boris Johnson. Jeremy Corbyn and getting brexit done as is proper for a habit to of the shadows. LA- Vito has done little press press and let little be known about him. The impression conveyed by colleagues however is far from that of a fire breathing bully reports to Picton Ernest. Decisive voices won't see working eighteen hour days and maintaining a clear focus on what is required for victory undistracted by the gaffes bloopers or short circuits of the candidate which in a campaign for Boris Johnson must require a superhuman serenity libido and his pair of young New Zealander Digital Gurus. Ben guerin and Sean topping also understood that social media campaigns need to be effective rather than outwardly sophisticated. They were clearly on embarrassed to be seen pushing what looked to anybody but angry. Daily Mail reading pensioners like absurd amateurish. Nonsense Libido was not however shy about removing other senior Tories from the spotlight. At the end of Shepherd's Crook early in the campaign at related would housing and Mannequin Jacob. Rees Mogg intoned some ill-advised remarks about the victims of the two thousand seventeen grenfell tower disaster. I think if either of us were in a fire whatever the brigade said we would leave the burning building. It just seems the common sense thing to do and it is such a tragedy that that didn't happen but I didn't do with race or class. Rees MOGG has has bailey been heard from since and for that much. Even the most ardent remainder should extend Isaac La Vida Victory Chewed
"lynton crosby" Discussed on FT Politics
"The West could do business with the same time. There were one or two moments of real tension off to the record summit. Reagan essentially wanted to get rid of nuclear missiles and Margaret Thatcher was pulled as well. They were diverging views on Bush and Thatcher on Germany formation. As I say she was also pulled by the invasion of Grenada but largely it was more the world view of dealing with Russia managing the end of the Cold War and the West was right and had the might and then also obviously deregulation just the whole sense of weaken the state. If you remember Reagan's is comment about seven. Most Cherry was in the English language. I'm from the government. Hi How can I help. Margaret Thatcher could have easily said that but then of course the fact she is tenants the Meiji Agius. And I think I've heard you say a couple of times before the John. Major was quite an underrated prime minister that he won the ninety two election when nobody expected him to. But it also of course he achieved Maastricht. Which you've said was cake and eat it? It was a good deal for the UK. He was underrated in the sense that had to manage judge a very slim majority in parliament. And therefore he was vulnerable but he warned against expectations. That ninety-two election against Neil Kinnock. What what then happened of course was a disaster? The explosion of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism that we had joined which was a fixed but adjustable title exchange rate system where we thought this would tame inflation and maybe it was a prelude to joining a single currency probably not but we joined joined the wrong rate and it exploded in Nineteen ninety-two and the Conservatives reputation for solid economic policy exploited by the way Nigel Olsson now. A big eurosceptic skeptic favored joining the are just want to say that but the crucial point was that John Major and can clog and Norman Lamont want reconstituted British economic policy and it was a great success and they left a great legacy for Tony Blair nineteen ninety-seven indeed and of course when Gordon Brown eventually came in he followed the same spending lose. Ken Clarke done over his previous couple of years as onslaught probably a mistake. Actually they could have eased up up a bit. They overcooked as I remember in ninety nine two thousand on the public spending but they were so keen to have credibility in the markets. What what they didn't do? I always remember this. They had one hundred seventy nine seat. Majority this was extraordinary. Lack crushed the conservatives in ninety-seven and and yet they were still worried about Europe. And I can remember in European summit in the Netherlands. ninety-seven Alister Campbell. Bounding over to me. And I'd known him when he was a Daily Mirror political editor under the Reagan Thatcher years. And he said what is this year of politics. That sort of summed up where we were going but when you look at that email see John Major is now come out as one of the biggest voices since in his retirement for the European caused. But then you sold the split splitting the Conservative Party was opening and many of the characters who oppose Maastricht under the same people who led the brexit campaign many decades later he managed to hold it together. He kept the summit together in that period when you moved to bustles and was the. FTC's bureau chief that. How did the major government representative south in those summits? How engaged was Britain? Because one of the things that you skeptics have always said is. Britain didn't have an influence bitten. Didn't have a voice. Well this is just not true. First of all on the security side we very very important. We were influential in the Balkans conflict. Douglas Hurd was then foreign secretary. Latterly Malcolm Rifkind. We will a serious Powell. With a serious worldview. Second we will always influential in trade matters is where we represented the free trade wing influencing the Germans and containing the French third. We were always influential on the rules around the single angle market. We were respected in that respect full we backed enlargement I to Austria Sweden and Finland. No way didn't make it and then to central and eastern Europe we had a massive influence. So this is completely rewriting history. What we did have would to awkward things? One was the beef war. We had the scandal so we had a beat boycott from the U.. And John Major's suffered that it was grim period and I think the the other point was he had a slim majority and so he looked a bit weak. I remember helmet. Kohl's national security advisor saying to me the trouble Johm Asia's and he did a sort of wavy. TV motion with his hand. He said he's like a skier. He's always sort of skiing around things but of course you only got a slim majority. That's what happens before we get to the blaze. There is one think I think the major era that we should mention the F.. T. which I still hear from conservative. MP's today which was a nineteen ninety-two election endorsement. Now says long before you became editor it was not your core but when the FT endorsed Neil Kinnock in nineteen ninety two. That was very infamous moment. That's gone down in the paper's history. Well I was actually fortunately absolutely in Berkeley California on Sabbatical after my tour in Washington and before going to Brussels and I remember being asked to give a lecture at Berkeley on the coming general election and I finished it with saying. I'm not really sure what's going to happen but I can be sure about. One thing that the Financial Times would not endorse Neil Okay and when people go back to read that leader extraordinary piece because basically makes the case for John Major accepting the power graph then swerves towards. Actually it's time unhealed kinnock. Yeah I think maybe some mice got to Attack it just before Winston print and we were criticized very heavily but we got through that I think people hold that over us and it's you know it's nearly thirty years ago. Please come you know have a statute of limitation so we come to the black bound years and you still in Brussels this poem before you came back as news editor of the F.. T. Antoni black came in on a very pro-european wave and he was also in favor of the euro. And eventually Gordon Gordon vowed turned against it advised by his then chief advisor later shadow. Chancellor Ed balls how did you see bless approach to you because it strikes you when you read back He. He came in on time to take a different approach. The Meteo and be fully integrated Orland now with you but then pressured by maybe some parts of the press some pots public opinion. He became pretty eurosceptic in some ways. Well I see it slightly differently. Set the first thing is to remember is how big black was laws in Europe. At the beginning he was seen as the young leader. Who got it right? How to win a huge majority the new Third Way and he just towered over all of his counterparts because Helmet Kohl was on his way out just fine Europe? I mean play was the big new thing. I think that Gordon Brown had serious economic doubts about joining the single currency. I think they were right. Peter Mandelson was whispering in Tony Blair's he is saying if you want to be a real. Your opinion should join Tony Blair. was you know. He's flexible shall we say. I'm not sure he absolutely committed but he gave the impression that he favored it. And do you think looking back on that debate the UK made the right decision about the US. No question because at that point obviously there was a huge huge debate. It's the first time dominic. Cummings now the Plymouth chief advisor in is probably going to shape. A lot of his government entered into the national picture because he ran the business for sterling campaign at that moment and what is interesting. There are some people I remember our Gideon Rachman with someone who is skeptical of joining the euro but that was a point again the ratcheting up of US skepticism for muster in the ninety S. Until we come to Brexit so this is fine they were right business sterling. This absolutely right and Dominic Cummings around Britain campaign but what they tend understand. was that again. We had cake and eat it. We were the offshore trade and Financial Center. Where all the money from the euro zone? We're capital flows around the single currency increased dramatically. They came to London. They didn't go to Frankfurt Onto Brussels or to Paris so we had the best of both worlds out of the single currency but took advantage of the single currency throughout financial. Send and I want to ask you about George W Bush and Tony Black. Because that's relationship. You must've watch developed over a period of time that what was it that drew those too close together was it. Tony Blair is designed to be a statesman because that was probably one of the mall closest special relationship since the faction Vega era. Well it's funny because the Brits were worried because Bla- actually had a very good relationship with Bill Clinton politically. They were very close David. The Third Way Third Way politicians. So I think Tony Blair was very anxious to get close to George W Bush. He saw this as the key relationship and of course I was a little bit of naive not enough to nine eleven. Everything changed. It was fine to get close to George W Bush from the Americans on invasion of Afghanistan and toppling. The Taliban the problem was faced too. And I remember having a tool with senior adviser to Tony Blair and he said you know. That's Iraq phase two we invade Iraq. That's a whole thing and the neo. Cons drove the policy and then when France sherack can should in Germany pushed back against the neons and against invasion of Blair found himself. We gotta choose and he thought he could influence Bush and the debate in the UN and get a UN resolution. Of course we failed and this was a disaster. Now you you became editor of the F.. T. In two thousand and five which was around the time of Tony. Blessed third and final and Labor's last election victory. We should point out as well then and that was when the mood began to move towards Gordon bound. He became promise to in two thousand seven. Of course he was hit very quickly with the financial crisis. Which I'm sure your degrees being if not the one of the defining finding stories of your editorship at the F.? T. Gordon bound is highly lauded as the guy who saved not just the. UK's according but a lot of the world banking system as well now but is often criticized. Prime Minister has not been too successful. Do you think history might be kind to Gordon Brown because of his role in the Christ. Oh there's no question that Gordon Brown played a leadership role in the global financial crisis. We were earlier to spot the flaws in the financial system. What needed to be done? In terms of recapitalizing the banks. I think we would take him very seriously. Around the table and we showed a leadership role with Nicolas Sarkozy than the Americans came in and finally he dealt with therein banking problem and the problem was the Europeans not responding so yes I do think that people will be kind to Golden Brown and then the Ft. Which I guess was your first? Election Dawson backed the Conservatives in twenty ten much to Gordon Brown's displeasure. I'm sure leaves a very unhappy but can imagine that phone call. What was the reason that you decided that Labour had had enough of that point that it was enough it was time for a change? Actually it wasn't a phone call. It was a conversation in person who a few few weeks off to it but I think that we just felt that David Cameron Joe's bone represented a new kind of conservative movement Kamaluddin more pro European with a bit of skepticism and it was and we just felt it was time for a change. We'd had thirteen years of labor and in the end and we saw that they can get a majority so I was very very keen to have coalition government which was a new experiment largely worked quite well until of course in in two thousand fifteen when On the Lynton Crosby David Cameron decided to kill the coalition. Indeed I think it was William Hague who comes to that time that when they signed the coalition. Do Go. He said to someone who was in the room we've assigned the death won't if the Liberal Democrats they knew at that point it would destroy their reputation as this independent centre-left voice.
"lynton crosby" Discussed on Talking Politics
"The had a great night they went from seven point five to eleven point. Five percent the national venture. No other party put on votes like that. But it was an absolute catastrophe for party. That's had some catastrophes in its history. Three where does this one rank. I'm I think it's pretty bad. But I think it falls more in the category of failed attempts of revival very expensive Hansen failed attempt at revival rather than a shock on the of the nature. Twenty fifteen twenty fifteen was the cataclysm in which are not only reduced to eight eight seats but only came first or second in about seventy seats and votes for guys. Croton does mean they are second in quite a few sees absolutely so the problem they they had in. This election was that they were trying to appeal to a remain. Voting electorate many of whom were in seats. where the dams were nowhere at the last election Shen particularly in the London area that made the election campaign extremely difficult one to fight? I think we might think that a more low key let them campaign in which just Winston had spent and more time in eastern button and the party had stuck with a second referendum pledge rather than going to revoke article fifty might have got the party. Fifteen or twenty seats cheats. Maybe a couple more percent in the polls I was thinking of you. And what you said about Jeremy Thorpe in barnstable defending a seat that might lose their four installing fiber optic cable and it might have been better than the Swinson battle bus but the basic prompt them for the DEM's is a structural problem that they are now back to being a relatively small third party in in a political system. MM-HMM THAT OPERATE SOLITUDE party basis. Remember you have their same peers. Really that the proper third party politics than in the Commons with fifty five fifty five. MP's I mean it's really interesting if you look at the eight seats the Lib Dem's held onto in two thousand fifteen. They've now lost six of them so whereas in a sense senses the Party received it from its high tide at the end of the coalition it was mainly holding on in places where individual and peas were popular an well-dug-in or there was a compelling kind of tactical voting case. They can make to squeeze the party. They are now in a much more contiguous ideologically and politically contiguous position in the sense that most of the seats where they are now doing well. remain voting seats in the southeast Oxford. West Twickenham Richmond Park and so on they did pretty well in South Cambridge proven that they didn't win the foot pretty well in at Wimbledon. There's all seats which they might win next time. So there is a case for saying that. There is a springboard for Lib dem recovery and but what they have done is effectively written off much of the Celtic fringe. They were previously the main rivals conservatives and much of Cornwall Devon Somerset voted to leave many of those voters. Were now not touch Lib. Dem's in any circumstances the last question when you look at this now. It was an auto election because we did an episode about. Is this the Tick Tock Collection System WHATSAPP election. It was Boris Johnson Kissing babies election. It was him the number photos of him with a fish or All you know in a in a butcher's or with his tie tucked into his shirt and then in the building you know like it was an fashioned election. That's produced an old-fashioned result. I'm sure that was a lot going on to which is was new but is not immediately visible the morning off the night before significance. That had we talked about the ROB Delaney video that we're seeing twelve million times and here. We are with the Conservative Party. Having a I think that the late seventy eight hundred seat majority with Scotland and having gone in parliamentary time. So that's a big majority in England and done very well in Wales relentlessness of the messaging. That was that was different. It's just if you Lucht. Boris Johnson's twitter feed every two high many minutes. Utah have the same message different picture or something else and just went on and on and on I mean and it was like somebody drunk. Christmas party just kept saying I love you to somebody just rambles. But I'M GONNA. I'm just so I think you're right. Fail all trash into now. We're new technology tune was just how to continually repeat that message endlessly asleep and apparently I think on facebook anyway. Message went out to people in forty different constituencies saying yes they you are in one of the nine constituencies agencies that could save brexit. That seems to me to be a really good. People are trying to say it's illegal. I don't think it is illegal. I think you just is illegal. Gomo campaigning so my question was going to be though it both looks very familiar with it. Looks kind of mid eighties kind of politics and yet as we talk about. So much of this is not familiar that the Scottish question the role of the courts the possibility that we have a government that could be actually actually quite not radical but proactive on some constituent questions and Brexit to come and they will own brexit and they will bear the consequences of brexit unbalances. Familiar is are we still in pretty new territory. Do you think I mean in terms of election. Campaigning it was a textbook Tori campaign. They identified what went wrong last time. They replaced leader. They're attacked Germany. Kuban and the cost of labor programming. A classic sort of tax bombshell way. And saying that you know won't put two trillion pounds of spending would bankrupt the country and they identified weaknesses in terms of the impact of austerity. And don't want them anymore. Please chromosomal Xix. She's really simple stuff. It was a classic Lynton crosby campaign as well into crosby. Johnson's guru people email me overnight saying from Australia thing. Yeah we we've just had one of these two in every election as a moment a behind the scenes moment so with brexit was when cummings stood up and punch through the ceiling last sny apparently in conservative headquarters. They sang the Jeremy Corbyn Song but replaced the West Germany coping with Isaac Veto. The crosby proxy was put into run the campaign. But they're still some gains that I think aren't Joe's due to the nature of the campaign example. Is Ball's over where Dennis skinner is no longer going to be the beast of balls over will he may. Well be but no longer. Is there in pay and that for me was a real shock. I come from our area. It's an Mary where you'd never ever ever expect them to vote conservative particularly when they're so used to a real character. MP They all know he's somebody who's always in the community. Everyone knows him him knows him. Well known as a good constituency pay. Why did he lose his seat? Brexit let's the only real explanation if you go there and say we've had enough of this get brexit is it done. That's a very clear message to people in the area who voted leave. Who feel let down and so? I'm not sure how far some of these changes changes are due to Brexit and some are due to prompting police and promising nurses and promising to the changes and so in some senses. I don't think it's necessarily going back to business as usual. I think that's still hanging over us. A new think it was brexit and not Corbyn in Bolsa I would say yes brexit and on Scotland. But we've been here before we've had had a large number of empty. MP's returned all you find is that that doesn't really make much of a difference. When you've got a governing party with a longevity they can still get to do what they want so in all but not on this scale so there'd be large numbers but facing a coalition and then significant numbers in the eighties and some of the nineties facing governments with large majorities? But isn't this the first time you've had a huge. SMP Block and Assemble Party. Majority government but in many many ways exemplifies the point which is still doesn't matter that point you've still got a large number but the the big thing that matters is the the the party that forms government has majority and can do what it wants to finish. I thought the loss word on this should go to Helen. She and I have been talking about these things quite well now. We started this before. We were even talking Pulisic's when we put Cusco election but as talking politics. Exhaust slogan has been Kuban exclamation mark. I can never remember the order. I think it's trump exclamation brexit exclamation mark and felt for a long time that that was going to be the slave until the day we died. Well the Kuban bit is going to be shuffled off that India cools. The brexit has moved on. We'll deal with trump soon enough. Helen I kind of felt last night while watching it that you had been an indispensable guide to this. I I would have understood nearly as well where we might be heading without you and last night was in some ways. I think I can say this vindication of some of the things you've been saying over the past few years vindication of some of the conversations reasons that we've had on this podcast what's your what's your final reflection on it. I'M NOT GONNA ask you. Do you feel vindicated. But do you think the shape of British politics takes makes more sense than it did twenty four hours ago. I mean I think that I think I was the last election because I thought the what happened. Last night would happen in two thousand seventeen so meekly. It's like well. Why was wrong? Then what's the difference and I think that is partly because there was actually no prospects of Kobe becoming prime minister in two thousand seventeen so there were people. It could vote Labour without thinking that there was anything lycopene premium which might ensue from it and that was freeing thing at this time round that if your innocence was taken away from they voted they had to maker a harder choice but I think as well that the paradox folks of what happened. Last time we're brexit was concerned was that people in those seats will leave Isis. I mean in those seats who have crossed the conservative take majority last night thought. I think the Brexit was done before the last election and that they've been part. The point of Brexit was that it brought them democratic politics back again and sometimes I think that they thought they got the Labor Party back again and sometimes you democratic politics gear the Labor party because that's the way if they can see what democratic politics was. It was coming back home to them and so they expressed that by carrying on labor on them. What happened afterwards was that they were basically told me that they were still going about the referendum which had already been told by the actually the votes of the remainders who voted for the Labour party in two thousand seventeen despite fight it and stood remained party in two thousand seventeen in explicit accepted the result that their votes?.
"lynton crosby" Discussed on Coffee House Shots
"Hello and welcome to coffee. Shot spectators daily in these days. David unto two weeks weeks now until polling day and the Tories are still in the lead and people this week which got Westminster. Very excited suggested the Tories had there been an election this this week. We've won a majority in the region of sixty eight however as phrases hasn't as Telegraph column as we discuss on this podcast. There was still plenty of time for the Tories to blow it and there are some early signs as if you look at the days ahead that there are some obstacles they are going to have to and we will now go free. There's various ones but I think to begin with. That's just took fast about Bruce. Johnson and television appearances and scrutiny. Now openly on Thursday night we had a situation from abortions did not do the channel climate leaders debate instead. The Tories did organize a stunt of the rain. which went some way too distracting from this by sending Michael Grove data trying to get onto the stage not being allowed to do so and now there's another on about whether or not? Boris Johnson is going to face Andrew. Neil in the one to one lead interviews interviews every other mainly has agreed to this. And there's some talk that Berge can be bought from gay on the Angie safer until he agrees to this phrase raise. It has a slight with a twenty seventeen. Doesn't it in terms of Theresa. May's reluctance to go on. Various stages do set piece events. Boris Johnson's since allies would say we'll actually know how many things he's done already but if you take them in succession is not the best. Look no it's notes. I mean I do understand logic nick for a prime minister not doing these debates they tend to benefit the Challenger and the prime minister is ahead in the polls he would say look. What do I have to gain by stepping into this arena arena? I can also understand the logic saying look you journalist. You just want these debates for your own entertainment in your TV ratings. It's not to do with democracy. He is just all about you but the thing is we are. We are with these campaigns. The leadership debates have become a fairly big staple elections now over the course of his decades since David Cameron introduced them ten years ago. No so far. We've seen leaders debates. I haven't been that eliminating but we had the one to one interview and Renew Jeremy Corbyn Andrew Nicholas Sturgeon that were lot more illuminating allowed for follow up questions wherever leaders will through through the mincer. And it's always interesting to see how they fare. It looks a little bit cowardly. I'm afraid to save for Boris Johnson. To say okay let Corbin go through that Minster. Let Nicholas George. But I am not going to do. It's because I just didn't fancy it and the risk is that it can lead to the impression that you're taking the election victory for granted that you are adopting a safety first strategy and that you don't really think you've got to go out there to earn the votes of the people who are thinking thinking of you to support. IMA general election. The risk is that could backfire embarrassed that he looks lazy for looks complacent and he looks as if he's afraid of offer scrutiny. Rivals subjected themselves to James During the leadership contest. Boris Johnson did have a one on one interview. Angie Neal he still became came leader at Torrey Party and prime minister. So what's the difference in approach here. I think he was scheduled quite late in the process off. Most of the post-war it's out but I think he should do the interview for the simple reason this which is both Jeremy Corbyn and Nicholas Sturgeon had a tough time holding tweet but it was much less bound for Nicholas version than it was Jeremy Corbyn cushy made not perfect but much better fister defending her position and and then he wanted to be promised with United Kingdom. You'll be confident that you can get a half an hour interview defending you'll positions on a whole series issues. I mean these half an now in twos expose in a way. Were leaders debate. Don't because they allow forensic follow ups is weakness in position. You couldn't watch the android into into Nicholas Sturgeon and not. Come away from it thinking the S&P don't really have a proper answer to for currency question. You can watch animals into Jeremy Kuban. No come away the whole series the Ford about the fact that Germany doesn't seem to realize that government bonds government debt. But he seems deeply confused about what he would do a situation where you can take out what you could potentially take out the leader of terrorist groups such as Islamic state and that he he doesn't point you obviously doesn't really realize the scale and the gravity of the problem that we talked about Anti Semitism awesome. News is how the Rings not apologize but he denied that the problem has got worse since he became leader. I think Boris Johnson should be confident that he he is standing on a decent decent a pretty decent perspectives to become prime minister. And the only thing you can defend that perspectives in a half an hour or two and tonight we will not be seeing Boris Johnson on our television screens either but this is a preplanned non-attendance in the BBC's multi-party debate and you pay labour and the Tories sending on representatives who you need the Kuban Johnson's. Rebecca Long Baby Food Labor anniversary soon. ACT The conservatives James because leaders are not involved in this it does feel as though this is is perhaps less high stakes but you think there is still important in a debate like this for the Tories and is holding the line. There are so many parties in this he did in. The sense is going to be difficult for anyone to really is home to win a seven way debate similar similarly if we the other night the the Boris Johnson Jeremy Corbyn it was quite scrappy because of the format. I mean this is going to be even crappier because you're going to have seven people trying to speak up and make their case that points. I think the a big event is that is this time next week when we have the final. Boris Johnson. Jeremy Corbyn head to head debate on the BBC of the remaining TV debate as indefeasibly. Yeah that is the big the big moment say phrase of what else can go wrong. In the time we have left because he looked that Emma peephole this week yes yes. The Tories strategy in the mountains north seems to be paying off in winning some of these seats but the fractions at tiny as you look at some of these percentages one percent hair in that could really change a labor. She GonNa take these seats now. Professor Joan Curtis is that he thinks Arizona and is chance at being at Labor majority. But that's not talking about a Labor minority government propped up by SMP. Well it's funny. How often near zero percent? Chances Come true. I remember in twenty 2016 Princeton University. This model which is had predicted the two thousand twelve. US presidential election correctly and therefore there was a one percent chance of Donald Trump winning which he did Vernon Twenty fifteen. You had populous. Who came along with with what? They called the predictor. Not just an opinion pollster. They said it was lots of socio. Economic mkx data plugged into it. And they calculate your abilities to a fraction of a decimal point so you would have said zero point. Five percent chance of David Ever Cameron winning a majority a couple of weeks later. And that's exactly what he did so I think we ought to remember that opinion. Pollsters are still trying to adjust adjust to the new voting patterns were seeing on both sides of the Atlantic and until they get at least two elections right. I think we should all be rather cautious about their claims to have invented new technology. That can get the next election right and in fact during the seven days it took you. You got to do this. Pools the Tory lead went down by. I think sixteen seats. They had to knock off until they got to sixty eight. It doesn't take that much more of this trend continuing for the Tour de Majority to evaporate and slip through the prime minister's fingers quite quickly Jamison in response to this. What do you think the Conservative's strategy for the final part of the campaign is going to be doubling down or is it trying to actually change the pivot or pivoting different approach? Anything's everything's trying to make sure people too so I mean the first bit of us. Russia is desperate attempt to get Donald Trump. Not to say anything on his visit. Here today are very telling the boy shorts in this morning was basically saying to Donald Trump. Please stay out of our election. Remember how Barack Obama's intervention in two thousand sixteen referendum campaign backfire. I mean this was very public. Diplomacy please please. Don't say anything I I mean to feed them. We noticed that he was developing campaign cold. which could be the best defense given trump's Germanophobia against trump trying to get too close to the NATO summit offering the Tory message? The campaign is going to be we've gotTA GET Brexit. Don's country can move forward. That was a female surprising. Exactly the vows the theme of their press conference today and also it's going to be very like two thousand fifteen and this is where the you Goalpara. It provides them a problem which is going to be. It's I've Ashura hung parliament and if it's a hung parliament it's going to be the scholars nationalist calling the shots. Do you want that. I think we're GONNA see those. These two messages driven home relentlessly in the final week get brexit. Done is enough though. I mean sure that we never the BREXIT party voters. But what if they've really squeeze he's as much as they're going to add to that particular action and that right now as twenty seventeen people were thinking of domestic questions and finding which recent of much to say because I think they have have a decent argument but if next year is about another referendum. You won't get. I mean the twenty messages at its strongest when it's get brexit done so we can do X. Files Not oh hearing much of excellent point manifesto and say will would all you panting Steve because it has been but I've asked remarkable for its lack of ambition in many areas. Though I think the reason the manifest they seem so ambitious is exam done quite a lot in the first hundred days on an H.. Schools funding all. Those things. I think is interesting is wealth remembering how how the narrative changes which is a few weeks ago. Everyone was talking about. How can a fiscally reckless the Tories were? We've always big spending commitments now. Everyone's run saint by very ambitious in porn is because Labor's commitments all so bold so out there. Everything else pales in comparison Fraser. Razer is one potential issue. There isn't that because yes the narratives changed if the touristic more steak. Describe one of the things that leave every tapped into the referendum. Was this this idea of change and if the to restart look like perhaps not to us twenty seventeen the stable choice. That isn't necessarily going to get your high turn of non natives. People who don't know mediate t gallon. Vote for the Conservative Party. Your remember Lynton crosby saying in the two thousand fifteen campaign with the Tories triumphed..
"lynton crosby" Discussed on Monocle 24: Midori House
"Of which is what the likes of the other leaders think of leo varadkar if you see emmanuel macron has come across this quarter impatient in all this he's the one who's pushing in the UK you know there are there's the ah off the long and complicated history but there are no non didn't vote for brexit because he knew that in the referendum this would open up oh can of worms and twenty years after good friday agreement things had finally kinda settled a new generation had grown up without those troubles without that kind of conflict and this is taken them so far back but also brexit it's not the you know this is a real soul searching in orland in northern ireland as well they fourteen scottish referendum led to a lot of soul searching about unionism this has been another big thing of thinking about it and you know whether they were at one point be a border poll whether it'd be reintegrated the motives behind everyone was ireland being so strong because they thought it was a chance to reunify is incredibly complicated issue that i think british polls positions have really struggled with its exposed at the highest ranks of our government a lack of understanding of the situation the tensions the people we had northern ireland secretary who was stupid enough to actually say taking the job i didn't know that republicans voted one way and unionist voted another away you know it's shown a real complacency in british treatment of northern ireland listening to medicals house view joining me today vincent massey vinnie his UK correspondent for your needs and florence biedermann his london bureau chief for press now scaling -versity of turkey's military action against take care based in northeast syria has taken everybody by surprise even donald trump who's withdrawal of american troops on the region acting as a green light to the turkish oraon now seems to have had second thoughts and the EU has reacted with the threat of sanctions so who can now become the world's police man floor yes we have this desperate situation don't whether withdrawal of fifty US soldiers from northeastern syria led to absolute k. as being metered upon towns and villages yeah but i think it's not a complete surprise because a few months ago airborne had already said we would like to add sir securities on at the border and it's a constant in in turkish politics i mean since the kids like i've been busy in hong kong bureau chief for a remember the chris story i wrote twenty years ago was turkey threatening syria to bomb syria or if they don't do nothing to rain in the kurdish fighters so this has been a constant this applies to the the border with iraq because from iraq and syria were always group of kurdish fighters that would let's say a turkey which is not the case now but i mean this has been a constant that they feel the troops also had this kind of obsidian complex like the they are surrounded by enemies it's very important for them like to feel that they can have the security of borders on again also in iraq but especially in syria now so i mean it's not something new now the the real problem for for the you're or for trump is that you have to allies in the area like me turkey which has been a nato ally and pretty stable one on one side since decades on the other side like groups of kurdish fighters we've been supporting the western forces against is yeah so what do you do when you allies are fighting each other i mean but in the n. which one is the more important the most stable the more poor for i mean so whatever the game is yes that we'd be threat of sanction there may be some sanction indian if you look in the long term strategy i mean you can conclude that well turkey will go on and yes obviously everybody would try murdering their attacks but but what can they do we have the wider issues don't we that we can no longer rely upon the united states even say the same thing in the space of twenty four hours i mean we had donald trump withdrawing the troops in northeastern syria and then already we have the defense secretary mark asper warning serious consequences and there have been warnings of economic sanctions from the US to completely different messages i think in this scenario you have to oily separate donald trump and his twitter account with the rest of the american government i think it really is you know he blindsided them with this there was no discussion of this he was worried he watched the sunday shows impeachment was not going away so many stories have faded in his time this was getting bigger and wider an enveloping more people we've seen that this week he's starting to throw rudy guiliani guiliani under the bus as well he is pure distraction it is dead cat strategies have you throw a dead cat on the table no matter what you're talking about you suddenly go to talk about this dead cat that is you know a political strategy that lynton crosby famous in the UK has been using for a couple of years but donald trump is trying to distract from that impeachment and he's always concerned about his own hustle he wants a trump tower in assemble that's it he likes strong man and gone and he thinks he can get at trump tower that is it so he'll do what they're gonna say is completely blown down and convinced him to do this there is a strategy about protecting the cast he doesn't even understand the kurds are you know he falsely said this week will then other allies they went with us at normandy which is the most flippant thing ever in world war two as well so they no longer but also there was bands of kurdish fighters fighting in the second world war under britain as well so it's just historically wrong and he has no concern his tweet that he you have to remember everything for him as a reality show plotline you know he is a kadarshian president didn't and say what he thought was this guy was saying oh yeah you know just let us go back in maybe help you with your tower probably in a coded way and then he oh he's talked about this week is he's got two of the remaining members of the so-called beatles that kind of group that did all the videos of beheadings he were ever to citizens who were being stripped to their british citizenship isn so you go thousands of isis fighters always done as pluck out those two to take them to create some kind of moment in the next couple of weeks where he's going to say i'm bringing the justice against these guys who murdered US journalist james foley you know he's not caring as he is he's not carrying it going to be thousands of isis fighters that can suddenly get into europe kurds can no longer protect those prisons because they've got fight turkey and he you know he's he's just like well they're not coming is statements this week they're not coming here you know that's for europe to deal with you know this is it is in america and it's amazing that lindsey graham the congressman from south carolina who has been a staunch defender of trump really flayed himself for trump this cross the line even with him and he's been one of the most vociferous attackers and we'll see whether kind of congress this could be the moment where even they decide it's not worth picking up this guy mitt romney strongly came out and chastised the president and we'll see if many of them now decide with impeachment creeping up even a fox news poll this week said fifty one percent now impeachment and removal if that number keeps creeping up on me i don't think we'll see stronger action by congress to put real sanctions and try to stop turkey that's the that's america's internal issues that it has as a result but in the mean sometime we have the european union arguably the only body that can properly stand up toward on at the moment because we we have the threat of him sending millions of agee's your way i think those those is description at france has now decided to consider imposing sanctions against turkey but how much influence can the e u the house i think known now why because i mean you have these ambiguous towards turkey for years and years we would like you to be part of the club but then there was so much reluctance they played this game for the kids and now turkey really abandon the idea of completely so then yes they can impose some sanctions i think already netherlands said they wouldn't send them weapons which i'm not sure it's the be used source of weapons for turkey anyway so you can have the again that that kind of reaction but indian i mean the priority for the one would be richard the country and he won't he won't change anything in what he's doing pretty convinced like maybe he will sort on the offensive one or two as i don't know i mean but as long as the turkish army won't consider the reach their goal they won't change the action why would they i mean they had kind of okay was the win and maybe i should be more careful in the way i tweet and talk but in the end the reality is like there is this yes we've got a few minutes to go through the newspapers what does everybody found this morning yesterday it'll full of vodka who's who's the poster boy borough about jeremy corbyn because john macdonald who's affected deputy gave an interview yesterday finally enough to alistair campbell former labor spin doctor in which he said if they lose generally for many people will give them less incentive to vote labour in this election probably vote lib dem because they don't want jeremy corbyn to carry on after losing another election he's already been through one that he when you have such a fractured political system it's incredibly difficult to get anything done yes michael said well this.
"lynton crosby" Discussed on Talking Politics
"Union with the EU. There was none of that. Can you disagree with the economic concessions on the issue because they're not his to give the only person you can make concessions as the rest of the year in particular miracles or what I mean by that is concessions to the arguments of the other side and domestic politics so in the Scottish referendum case famous pledge whatever you think about it long term consequences. It was a signal that he he heard the arguments the other side. I think he was able to do that because he passionately wanted his side to win and there is discussion in the memoirs again. I write about it that they talk about close to the vote. If there's a risk they think they you might be losing. Should they say something about immigration should they at least acknowledge some of what's driving the other side's arguments and Lynton crosby among other people according to Cameron advise against thinks that but in hindsight that doesn't look like the right cool no I mean I do think that the difference with Scottish referendum does matter because saying saying we hear you and then being able to absolutely nothing about it. I'm not sure that that really works as a political tactic. Just kind of in some sense reinforces the argument given that doesn't make any difference like why anybody politician says about this or if you do it in the last week you might get away with it. You know I think if he understood as well as he did the the weakness of Britain's membership than absolutely had to make contingency arrangements arrangements of some kind for leave winning the referendum now. He says it will take time that was spent on all the things things that he didn't intend to stay on so he didn't see any government would replace him or any place would accept those contingency although he now this seems to be the weakest part of his defense he thought he was down for three months and in those three months he would have done a lot of this kind of planning but it was taken away from him because and relied Samedan inopportune opportun remark about to resume his personal circumstances but in those three months what could he have done no knowledge. I think this goes I think to an issue that he doesn't on the face in that is that at the very moment in which the referendum happened in leave one we were in a constitutional crisis because the majority of the voting Electra and said they did not consent to pretty significant Paul the constitutional arrangements bug which this country is governed so for that to be the case and then for the prime minister to decide that morning even though he's person who's whose decision making hats porters to that moment that the thing that he's going to do is is walk away. I think that is is pretty hard to get what head of UNTO UNTO justify because as we set about several times before in the issue of prudence and acting Putin lie's fundamental part part of the only way we should British constitution can work and not is an active huge risk taking I think but you also think it's it's not just the walking away their lack of consideration of the possibility of this outcome beforehand what in the months leading up in the years in Europe it back if back in two thousand thirteen he he thought whether wilfully not that he was heading down that road he might be trapped on that road or he might want to get on that road but towards in out. You have to think about what out vote means. I need well. We didn't encourage. We're not saying either to do. We we think that the way that he tells the story at least I'm being hesitant because we don't know all the things that went on inside his head but.
Boris' battle for Brexit
"Brexit circus continues in the UK and it's been more than threes since the biggest ever democratic vote in British history threes since more than thirty three million people went to the polls in a referendum threes since that vote authorize Britain's departure from the EU and yet Britain has filed to leave why I remember Boris Johnson's Dude manifesto deliver unite and defeat was the perfect acronym for election campaign since unfortunately it spills done but they forgot the final e my friends either energize. I say I say to all the dodgers dude food. We are going to the country. We're GONNA get Brits. It does deliver. WE'LL BREXIT is likely to be delayed again. Unite well as Britain conservatives who are divided more than ever defeat will. It's Boris who suffered several parliamentary defeats in the past week and energize is well. It's the reminders at least those in Westminster who are in so what on earth is going on so I'm in heaven is a high profile British commentator Haida and historian of more than three decades. He writes a regular column in the daily and Sunday Telegraph as well as the New Statesman. He's also a professor of history at the university city of Buckingham his new book staring at God version nineteen fourteen two nine hundred nineteen. That's published by Random House this month salmon. Welcome back to Irun. Thank you very much tom now. Give us a sense of where things stand with brexit well. We're supposed to believe in the European Union on the thirty first of October but apartment passed a law last week which was nothing to do with the government. It was the day that the opposition seize control of business in parliament of the law was to force Boris Johnson as prime minister to go to Brussels to ask for an extension until the thirty first of January he has said since then he won't do it if he doesn't do it he's breaking the law and he could be held in contempt of court and sent to prison so we're waiting to see what happens of course if he does go ask for the the extension. His credibility is completely torpedoed because ever since he started to fight his campaign for the Tory leadership in the summer it was on the basis that we would be leaving as he said do all die on the thirty first of October and if he does Austrian extension there's no guarantee also that the European Union will grant it it has it has to be grounded by unanimity of the other twenty seven members and they've been briefings over the last weekend from France that President Mackerel thinks we're just wasting wasting our time and the two where taking the Mickey out of the European Union. We leave immediately. We'll get to that in a moment but back to boras use side that he's credibility they will be damaged if he supports deadline of past the Halloween deadline of toby thirty one but surely some blog you'd that he's credibility is damaged because he has is expelled from the party twenty. One reminder rebels yeah. He's had a very difficult couple of weeks because he's strategist school dominic cummings who isn't isn't a member of the Conservative Party and isn't elected by anybody who has taken a scorched earth approach to those in the Conservative Party who oppose the idea that we might leave without a deal and Cummings Senator Johnson ten days ago have a force of Eight on this. If you lose the vote then throw out anybody who from your inside inside events against you and he is thrown out twenty one people including several former cabinet minister to X. Chancellors of the Exchequer an excellent translator and Nicholas serves Winston Churchill's grandson this caused tremendous outrage in in the Conservative Party in the country scorched earth tactics worthy of Donald Trump and that play will in a parliamentary. It's read democracy. It's very difficult and particularly in our parliamentary democracy add in Arkansas Seventy party whether there's always been ided individual constituency associations associations who choose candidates to become. MP's are independent of the center and can do more or less what they want and this is a very centralist almost dictatorship issue style way to run a political party which doesn't what one of the democracy okay well. The Commons has essentially overridden the prime minister by extending this deadline three months past October October thirty one but as you said before and as the support of all of the European Union governments what's the French likely to do well. France is is a problem and the European Union is not happy ship that the its adherence lighter percentages whenever there's an opinion poll in France it's neck and neck about whether French themselves ought to stay in the EU really yeah because they feel that this national sovereignty and their identity is French. People has been compromised by this also. They didn't like the fact act that they like the Germans are subsidizing other poorer countries who des necessary share all values in the suddenly anywhere near economically successful missile defenses in France the sixth biggest economy in the world we in Britain to the fifth so there's a lot of unrest about the European Union about interference in French live but President Macron Macron who of course his enemies early forties aspires to be the leader of Europe Anglo muckleshoot twenty five years older than him hasn't been well recently. She's twice while almost fainted in public appearances is standing down at the next election and she may not last much longer and it'd be a vacancy for the key player in Europe and macrumors to be that keyplayer he has a program he has a an idea of greater integration an almost federalization of Europe and he knows that written. If it were to stay in your opinion it will be completely opposed to that and so he wants personnel descriptors from your perspective from the perspective of other Conservative brexit tease you think the French could rescue rescue you by rejecting the the extension of the deadline yeah quite conceivable. They've changed their tune two or three times on this but then as recent word to come out of you've Paris last weekend was the British if granted a three-month extension would simply wasted. They've got no plan. There's negotiations getting on they haven't got a strategy to solve the problems that were in the deal that tourism April at Parliament in which was defeated three times because of its inadequacies and so the French are saying that foreign minister only real who spoke Sunday they're saying through him. We think the British had enough and we want to get them out so just say the French do due indeed reject this feel now that means that Britain will leave on October thirty one but still it just seems a fire that the only thing the British government is is doing at the moment and has been doing the lotteries is brexit. That's right. Actually it's an advertisement for what a wonderful thing that is not have government thing about the Belgium's about ten years ago and they didn't have government. That's right for about a year. I think we've we've we have passed laws in our country that I can remember. We've taken this different initiatives chiefs. We've just let people get on with this. Unemployment in Britain is about four and a half percent now. people frankly are unemployed in Britain. People whose health is cy battle junkies kids who just haven't called the brain power to get work. Everybody else go to job We've got very low inflation. We've got low interest rates. We're doing really well as a country economically and we are reasonably happy ship. It's really really brexit. It's appropriate. Maga Salmon Hefford the distinguished British columnist and historian. Let's turn to Boris Johnson. Someone you've known reasonably well over the last the best part of three decades in journalism now the Tory grassroots they love him. They voted for him to be their leader by warming the numbers you're leading conservative but you not like Boris Johnson. Why I Boris Johnson is a person. Who is you say I've known for years? A He is someone who has a very casual relationship with the truth he's known in the Labor Party. They put up tweets about him. Where they call Lavar Johnson I would get on Saturday but he certainly you finds the truth of difficult concept at times and I didn't think he's probity or the attention to detail all seriousness to be prime minister and the fact that he came into this office immediately cle- employed Mister Cummings as strategist and appeared to hand over the whole policy to him to do as immediately followed the as I say the scorched earth strategy suggest that Cummings Cummings his opponents rather than seeking to persuade the more reasonable him he just says because you're opposed to me you are clearly a worthless human being and I'm going. We're going to talk like Steve Bannon in the United States signed playbook but he's got more power than Steve Bounded had so this is this is very when Johnson was mayor of London. He had eight pitchy matters because he was notoriously idle. I'd had the attention to detail so he had to other people Lynton crosby officer Lynton of course was a former liberal rule and conservative party strategists seen all these well. Linson ran Boris Johnson's leadership election campaign and Boris Johnson wanted silence and when he collected his check which is a large one compact himself on the back of having a very successful job I didn't they with a Linson is still a a guiding Boris. There's been a word that he is but I presume has a general election and Boris Johnson has been trying to call on become get a majority sufficient in parliament eleven to approve that decision. Linda will be back in Blighty helping to run the election cabinet the many conservative voters and members of the Tory party the longtime readers of the Daily Telegraph often cruelly called the Tory graph they would read you and they might ask you does your hostility towards awards Boris out. Why your support for Brexit. No I really the thing I want most in life at the moment as an Englishman is for my country to be independent of European Union again I am hostile to Boris Johnson because I think he's very good record as a politician he was really second rate mayor of London where he wasted almost money the money and he was a truly bad foreign secretary he was a really I mean his officials at the Foreign Office absolutely detested him and he couldn't be trusted with any serious foreign policy. Theresa may continue to deal with the European policy with the policy towards America. He was allowed to go just places like darkest Africa unimportant to the Far East and shake hands there so he's he's not a capable politician. He hasn't got a grasp of detail and he's not serious and his response if you ask him a question he can't answer is to tell a joke. That's not good enough. I can't but he's defenders say he can unite the Party and in fairness opinion polls do show support for the conservative surging from twenty percent on the horizon May to thirty five percent under Boris add to that this is a point that phrase and Nelson the editor of the spectator. Mike's at two that the twelve percent support for the Briggs potty and you've got basically half the nation backing either Boris or Nausea Farraj saw even if the polls were to be tomorrow's election results you'd end up more or less with a fifty the strong majority for the Conservatives many people would say that's the best conservative results since Margaret Thatcher's third election victory in ninety seven well. There's a crucial assumption in which is an assumption rather than the facts in Fraser Nelson has jumped the gun on this and that this depends on there being a coalition between the Brexit Party and the Conservative Party is no oh such coalition at this stage at this stage but Nigel Farrell said the other day when Johnson went to see a variety of the Irish prime minister that he would regard leaving the European European Union without the deals offended of statecraft the minute that far out her that he said he's not serious about leaving without a deal therefore we can't do a deal with him. Okay Okay but just as soon there is a deal between Boris and Nargile Farraj between the Conservatives and the Brexit party this doing pretty good position because more than four hundred parliamentary entry states voted late in two thousand sixteen correct which is a lot more levers. That's true you must forget that there is a tribal determination of Labor Party vote. It is to fight for Labor Party even if it doesn't properly stand for Brexit so although Farrell she's very good at persuading working class former Labor voters to join the Brexit bandwagon had wagon we call it assume that they will also it's quite the puzzle says show a massive resurgence and support for the Liberal Democrats who are any two points behind the Labour party who basically written off when Cameron majority in two Thousand Fifteen yes and in twenty seven. I think they only had about twelve. MP's seventeen they WANNA by-election and they've had defections actions to them and I would confidently predict the Liberal Democrats win a lot of seats remain a tourism probably third of ill Tory party remains will vote for awesome in large quantities a lot of right wing. Labor people will them and quantities and the other problem that Johnson has got is it. He's loses his seats in Scotland because he's alienated. The Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson who retired at the age of about thirty eight last week saying that she'd had enough well. How vulnerable is Boris. I mean he has a majority in the Commons and I think you've argued elsewhere that he's hauled on his own. Marginal seat Ish Shakira era is what a majority of five thousand outs bridge which is a very mixed seat demographically in the West of London too high immigrant population many of whom are working working class middle class and not necessarily natural Conservative Party supporters of the Labor Party already flooding activists since oxbridge to to canvas and to try to defeat him so he could struggle to hold his seat but I think more than that the some of the things that he's Don John have really aggrieved people who supported him the early prorogation people thought the Queen in an embarrassing position the he's called call six votes on things such as calling a general election twice and other questions. He's lost all six of them. I don't see necessarily he's certain either to win the election far from it or even to hold his own seed. Well I mean this is a moving story and we clearly are in uncharted waters a back. Is it possible that brexit might not even happen. I've got about obviously if it doesn't happen it will be because he is. GonNa ask for an extension on what is being granted in those seconds as I say he's finished. He's in Party will turn on him. They that's not what they put him in there to do. Also it means that we will talk Frenchman so if we stay in until the study FESTA January. There's got to be some rapid footwork to get a deal together with the probably will be no extension after that. If we get a general election at a new party come in a policy of government then they might well call a second referendum the Labor Party at talking about doing that but the Labor Party is as divided if not more divided than the Conservative Party so we concentrate towards the party of government is a moment but Corbyn's is Labor Party isn't a real mess and they're far from shore to call the second referendum so we woke feticide the most lineup parliamentarians are reminders but a pretty significant segment
"lynton crosby" Discussed on Coffee House Shots
"Vodafone. Hello and welcome to coffee has shots spectators daily cuts on Katie balls joined by James Who Saif and the Mail on Sunday columnist Dan Hodges judges now is beginning to look inevitable that Boris Johnson's be crowned the next prime minister in two weeks time but what of how he will govern as ministers Johnson and novelists to be in his cabinet there are other the factions keep competing for his approval is being predicted that Boris Johnson will have more of a court than his predecessors groups of courtiers offering rival advice he will listen to these groups and play them off so which groups are vying lying for Johnston's ear. Now I've written this week on coffee has about this that I can't eight but I'm sure my guest today we'll be able to add some of their own but just to run free them. We have the old retain us and these the Oh time parliamentary supporters of Boris Chris Johnson Big Ben Wallace Nigel Adams Jake Berry these are supposed to see being with him since twenty sixteen and when he didn't have such luck with his Tory dealership campaign and of stock for him pre thick and then we have the new kids on the block. That's people like Gavin Williamson. James Wootton have come for the two thousand eighteen nineteen efforts as Lucy the city hall crit people he will around Boris Johnson. Here's mayor of London expect to have a prominent road if he takes number ten will walden at Lissa then there's the European research group spoken a lot many times on Coffee House shots figures that Jacob Frey Small Mark Francois Brexit is who want to see that brexit delivered. There's team vote leave. Those burr shirts knows from the referendum campaign. There are the Echavarri as as we could call them carry Simmons that goes with Ben Idiots and then there are the men and women of government those figures Trenton surely have a place in the Boris Johnson Cabinet and finally team Crosby Texter Lynton crosby and what role he is or isn't playing so Dan to start with year I've listed for I think some of the groups how do you see the various groups fooling around Boris Johnson. I think he's very accurate described. The groups that are forming around Boris but thanks quite interesting to step back and ask white is that we do have so many disparate groups sort of jostling for the kings of the moment and I think the fundamental problem that Boris Johnson in is GonNa face is it there are no Johnson nights as as such Boris when he takes over is going to be in my the one of the most personally isolated or maybe politically isolated prime minister's we've had when when black took over he was obviously at the hall of a very extensive very well disciplined very sophisticated <hes> audie logical stroke political oh movement it to the same extent when David Cameron took over the camera Kenwright sits at spent a number of years planning their political strategy buying into the political strategy organizing around there politicals strategy. acidy Boris is not going to have any of the of that at at and actually the person I think who he reminds me of in a sense is is Theresa May and when to resume took over and was himself quite an isolated quite early early on within cabinet and more broadly politically and I think that's why we've got this. We've already we're already seeing at within the campaign there is already degree of factional infighting which which is less actually factional and more personal personal for Boris his ear and I think as we move forward that is can be potentially be a serious problem. James Degree that erotic chaotic court. I think it's worth remembering which is whatever the political wisdom of this. This is kind the vote Boris Johnson once he doesn't like being tied down to one source of political advice. He likes this OBE yeah. He likes to sit there. As kind of Sun King with these people can orbiting around him and he doesn't doesn't like to distilling simply choose to buy one group or whatever now you can argue with that. It's going to be a recipe for trouble in Downing Street Cetera et Cetera et Cetera but I think we see that he has deliberately chosen to have this kind of open open door policy towards people. He's chosen to stay in touch with multiple people I think back to when Obama won the Labor leadership and his aides took his mobile phone off him on the basis that you know all communication was going to have to come through someone no noon taking Boris Johnson's mobile phone him and indeed. I think he still is in communication. A whole bunch of people why taxed but is what I think the role of idealistic comes in which the idea of someone who brought us trust you know he's Old City Hall Chief of Staff Somebody who you can try and to manage this process but let me talk to report is going to pick run essentially instrumental reason which is the in the current political predicament they are in. He is the person you can get them out of this mess and that's that is essentially the mission. He's had on your if he fails. He is going to be even learned even most people in politics but if he's accedes it will create its own momentum now. Let me look at the various groups that assum I think he would say that they actually have the greatest influence when it comes to speaking birth Johnson getting what they want but it isn't always that way John which figures you think has the most wheel the most influence on Johnson you've written previously no males on about the fact there seems to be this official campaign rain behind Boris Johnson said to have actual press rose and then those seems to be team carry at times and that's carry Simmons his partner. He listened the in the ECO warrior group so in part because he has a fix on environmentalism. Yes I think that was is a quite a generous demarcation for carries role within tim bars. I think speaking to team within people within the official campaign they see her influences going <hes> quite merely that the sinecure of green issues. I have to have to be honest. I know I mean I think she is obviously going to be an influential figure within his administration or certainly as he's campaigned currently seems to be structured. She's going to be going to influential. I mean being entirely honest there is there. Is there a number of very. The senior people around Boris Johnson who are very concerned about Kerry Solomon's potential influence upon his administration that is something that a number of people in our giving active thought too about how that is manage going forward but I think more broadly to sort of broaden out from from carrying I mean I think James is touching. I think the reality is that each of the people that you listed will at various times have a significant degree of influence over Boris depending on the the the the moment I think so depending on the political reality of the moment I think there is no doubt that the biggest decision he's going to have to make how he integrates the G. and that that sort of very hard of course grind the Tory Pro Brexit euroskeptism into into his administration because as James said that Boris Johnson has one job at the moment and and that job is to bring back to the Tory fold those Tory voters have abandoned the Tory party before the brexit party I mean the reality is it is not Boris Johnson that has one Johnson this leadership election. It is Nigel ferrall. She was one Boris Johnson. This leadership election and the moment Boris Johnson's accession was secured with European elections where the tourists were were annihilated by for ocean the Brexit Party so I think in the short term that is going to be the biggest fundamentally see how does integrate that as I say that hardcore orgeon element into his cabinet into his government without completely alienating the more moderate elements of the company. That's okay by that James because I mean look various groups. There are some that have I suppose more likely to run into or against each other and you have European Research Group you have Jacob Frey small in duncan-smith has not been given an official role in the membership stage of the contest to have the grape epidemic of government and by that I mean people like Matt Hancock Vicious do not generate Lucy Fraser. You wouldn't really expect to have too much in common but the people who go to E.. G. Meeting yet the current behind the same candidate so g think you conceive reached wet. Boris Johnson can keep Steve Fake happy and also keep the minimum government happy. Will they be happy just to have a job. Even if the guy for this very hard brexit so I think the Panglossian view is Boris. Johnson puts no deal on the table Europeans side that he is despite having said it's a million to one chance he is serious about this is perpetual lay a concession offered up on the backstop bodies sufficient to satisfy the DP the reopen the put it in Borgeson declared a great diplomatic triumph brings it back to parliament I'm because it is Boris Johnson selling it because what you're saying about stage two of the process you you don't get all of L._G._B._T.. Whistled down and most of them vote for it and some more Labor M._p.'s vote for it because they genuinely worried about no deal this time and he gets a deal through and suddenly he's off to the races. The assaults come out of the BREXIT party balloon. He's a few is bat too. Pessimistic views one pessimistic view would be the E._U.. Causes Bluff and and he is left at that point having to do it or not and which point parliament steps in and essentially everything comes tumbling down. I think there was there was a big question about the e O._R._G.. And the split blitz in it but occurred on the third time but maize deal was bought for collins when figures like in duncan-smith Jacob rees-mogg abortion himself voted for the deal to get brexit one is steep acre amount Francois continue to. To invade against that there is an interesting question about web g own on how much they really because ultimately the only basically withdrawal agreement that has lost forever is the laxed up and in fact by Stop Stop lost forever. Would they consider forty nine billion to get out of the E._U.. Cheaper the price on with a lot of are other concerns fade away because of direction Washington was promising to go in face to of negotiations. I mean there was a very interesting question passionate. About what is the test to serve his cabinet is it a willingness to publicly say the U._K.. Is leaving over the forty first. Come what may we would like to be a deal. We will leave on television. I come what may with the story is that the test and you see people such as I'm the RUB beginning to move themselves towards that point of view or is the test genuinely believing but no deal would be fine Nazis attention. I mean there are some people close to to no the only people who are in the camp and other people's. You'll government won't be boarding basically it's it's better to say look if you're prepared to publicly and privately support policy that is enough and licking teaser cabinet when you look at the the various factions there are some pretty on M._p.'s in the parliamentary arena but he looked at the older tena so that group of amputee with peanut versions in for the long haul now back when it was unfashionable to save because Ben Wallace Nigel Adams Jake Berry Corner to a degree down at least big. It's GONNA expect to get cabinet jobs in baton because you'll see people maybe in Gavin Williamson and then again. We have two cabinet ministers so there's going to be a scramble to test is loyalty is is the problem. This goes back to what I was talking about earlier when I was saying about I if you like that the lack of all Johnson nights as it were Johnson I organization I mean with the greatest respective of those people that you just listed as as the own retainers they are not people you would instinctively say are sitting at the top rank of talent within the parliamentary Conservative Party and there is going to be a decision Boris is going to have to make back the extent to which he rewards his allies but also has to reward and rely on those people who have not in instinctively been his allies and I think to follow up with I think I think James made a very very important important point. <hes> which again goes back to this balance between the G and those sort of government equalled what was it government's sort positive men and women and men and women women men and women men and women of men and women of government who are in a very different place from the I mean the reality is that Boris for all he's up. Boundless Optimism mm-hmm ISM is not going to be able to secure a markedly different offer from the European Union to that that was offered to reason to Theresa May and at that point there there are there are two questions one. To what extent will Leo G. BE PREPARED TO SELL A cell minor concessions to Boras as major concessions or concessions significant significant enough to give to give Boris's withdrawal agreement fare went fair wind and the second thing is if they can't sell that and Boris is presented with the option no the option but no deal to what extent the men and women of government who are prepared to as it will go along the right up until October thirty first at that point feel like they have to get to get off the ride because whilst you can see circumstances where saying I'm Barack for example can agree to serve in government to you try and as it were lend her weight to efforts to secure a deal and moves away from an ideal scenario to get your point where I'm barraged is actually standing up advocating no deal scenario before or on October thirty first that that is a real stretch this I would enough if he you slam the door and Boris Johnson's face and say we're not talking to you. The actually makes his life easier because I think the vast majority of those men of minimum government types cheese fries MONOGAM- <hes> Ka Katie is updated it. I think most of them and I've even maybe even rubbed with say look okay if he you won't negotiate then the blame lies that but if they aren't prepared to negotiate and the concessions that are offered they all they all genuine concessions not enough when that will matter one person. I think we haven't taught by who maybe should thank you..
"lynton crosby" Discussed on FT Politics
"And there was always going to be this transition from the first phase, the campaign sliver, the parliamentary stage and the second stage to win the grassroots membership. And yes, I guess the kind of guy grassroots members do like, but it is a sign that they read is something how to change the way they might actually be in a bit of trouble. Well, you're right. It's been a very bumpy transition from the first phase. Of course. Johnson campaign Westminster in the second phase, the first place was brilliantly executed with the help of people like James Watson, a former MP around his private office govern Williamson, the former chief whip I mean they delivered exactly what they said they were going to do. They got him half the parliamentary party got him into the second round out of Westminster into the country. The problem started obviously with the row that should the newspapers now. Not full burqas come in. He's a business partner of Lynton Crosby who's a close friend, of course Jon around his Merrill, campaigns successfully. But they've had a terrible run recently in British elections they've sought the Australian ones but they advise Boris Johnson in two thousand sixteen and his abortive leadership campaign. They advise the conservative party in. Disastrous two thousand seventeen campaign where they tried to build a personality cult around a leader, you hadn't any personality. And as you mentioned, they run that goldsmiths a polling campaigns balloons and mayor in two thousand sixteen where they basically round the dock was so racist campaign in a multicultural, tolerant, Sissy. It was obviously despicable. And so they brought this guy in their attentions. In the Johnson camp between the people around the first phase and not phobic is now running the second phase and I'm told it was marked Fullbrook first decision as the campaign chief executive to bring in, in Duncan Smith as the chairman, which in itself, was a fairly controversial thing with some of the people who've been with both Johnson away through Moore under, let's flip back to policy for moment. And I think, you know, jomie Honda's also put out some policy proposals this week, particularly on corporation tax spending a lot of money on defense and also want about juden tuition fees for entrepeneurship. And if we don't think both Johnson's policies are particularly thrown good. You couldn't say much for Jeremy Hans either. That's right. And I think sort of going back to this question of whether the whole thing is a good look for the Tory party. I'm really not. Not sure that these policy pledges are doing them any favors. I mean, we were thinking about, you know how full through the Johnson camps policy proposals are on. I would have said, you know, they're throwing them out left, right. And center by not really just the right and similarly with Jeremy hunt. You know, his idea for, you know, having a tuition fees amnesty for entrepreneurs. I mean if you look at the social background of entrepreneurs in the UK, this is the most privileged echelon of young people. It's completely bonkers. It's literally giving money to people who don't need it. And it kind of been thought for, for more than about a minute, before they came up with it simply I was interested on the defense spending thing. Because when you combine that with some of the tax cuts, you opening up a huge question, IVA fiscal responsibility. And you kind of one that also how much Tory voters have changed into whether they really want to hear that message on things like defense spending, which, you know, clearly goes down well in these hustings, but will it sort of carry forward into this mythical land beyond Brexit, which both candidates is so key? Into talk about in which we will never ever get to. Yeah. I mean, it reminded me that if you remember the scene in this one of the last series of the thick of it where the slightly new age, Tori campaign chief invite slow to people to sit in a circle a circle of positivity, and as they throw a ball to each other each one has to come up with an idea and everyone goes, yes. And that's what some of these policy ideas have reminded me of that. No one's that she sat and thought, well, if we do that there's a problem here we all come back on, with Georgia's point about Boris Johnson seeing himself since she has a much more one nation centrist figure..
"lynton crosby" Discussed on Coffee House Shots
"Welcome to govern house shorts spectators, daily politics podcast between the ship is now in its final furlong with Boorda's Johnson and Jeremy hunt meeting in Birmingham tomorrow. And what could be the first of eighteen separates hustings. So what can we expect? I'm frizz Fresno, joined by James Cy, then Katie balls, James. Why are we bothering with this five weeks of what we knew is going to be Walker for Boris? I mean, the unexpected does happen in politics, Katie rose ner spectacle than recently, but surely no expecting Jeremy hunter witness from the very beginning of this process. Jeremy hunt was the opponent. But the Boris Johnson campaign wanted they fought he had three weaknesses that played Boris his hands. The first is that he voted a most important is the voices remain in twenty sixteen. The second is that he is being Theresa May's cabinet. Throughout the entire Brexit process on the furred is, the hunt is instinctively, mal mannered politician, he's not one who tended to impose himself on a debate. And so, I think what we will see at these hustings. The campaign, intense drawn turn these things into is to something more akin to political rallies and feeding is made him. Feel good occasions, you all on his own conserved, his wonderful, and that basic will make it very difficult to Jeremy hunt to land any place. Now, you, you said you describe this as a five price. It's not really because the postal votes will go out sometime around July six and all the Akron results addressed the both bulk those will return returned relatively quickly, so almost whatever happens Leith role in the process doesn't massive out much because I suspect that the vast majority of people voted long before MRs over so Casey house. Michael Goov going to be feeling this morning because he lost out by just two votes. James explains. Why Jeremy hunt Boras favourite candidate? We all know why he wouldn't when my congressional because my Hoover's fight Michael win. So do you think he's feeling injured on redressed unpaid this morning? I think my Gobi feeling very frustrated. And I also think just looking at the today's papers might be when those days when you keep the papers away from your boss, because his multiple papers saying, Boris Johnson takes revenge Michael gov. And the idea here is that tactical voting was at play. And I think there's any question that there was had to converting if you just look, for example, yesterday at the number of savage, avid, supporters after he was knocked out of the morning vote, thirty three of them yet, but he, he publicly declared to say they're going to back Boris Johnson. So a least full Mobley said they were going to vote to produce Johnson yet. Bruce Johnson's overall anyone by free votes in between the fasten. The second clearly that means that there is. And that's just once we know about that means people were not doing exactly as they said. And I think the only question is does that mean that it was Boris Johnson campaigns water tactics were Cup? Couple of Boris Johnson, supporting MP's freelancing and doing things the Rona quarter, no instruction Gavin Williamson, the former chief whip sush Machiavellian type character he has been in charge of the parliamentary stage. So that's how you get the data tricks outta Gatien's, which we're hearing from quite a few MP's, the sense that there was an effort to make it so Jeremy hunt the line not Michael grove. And if you dictate suggested supporters seemed like a lot of those have gone grove, that didn't go Boris, so it doesn't quite add up. I think there's some people who feel like they're scheming, but there was. Sasha. John invis-, our is wrecking the fifteen visible orders when to Boris there for that would suggest that team is lent between ten fifteen votes to Jeremy hunt that didn't need to steal it fair and square. But ultimately, what's happened seems that's been some political plotting shark in Westminster. The volt shock that the haves. I mean, they say was evidence prove it now it's a secret fantasy awesome here. You say guess does campaign does seem as low at the upper hand of the other campaigns. But then, again, this is Westminster politics. And there's always been a little bit of, you know, Hugh Hugh can get ahead by any means possible slight things. And I think there are some in the Boris Johnson camp and not official perhaps, he d think that this was a very mechanical process, the parliamentary stages of this contest and not so that of a campaign Scott brought down or consumed, or thinking about the media doing pitches and social media, actually, it was just about gay enough MP's free. Whether that is free telling the bad things that would happen, if they didn't back their candidate offering a carrot. I mean, government sin has always said that he prefers a shop carrots, which is suggestions that you combine a stick with a carrot short Kerr James, the stories, I've heard. Govern Williamson over the last few days, really being quite striking the former chief whip seems to be doing Francis Irqah tribute act here. I mean it's kind of stems silent threats some MP's. In other words, I've heard one MP say that he was told by volumes teams that basically unless you sign up to team Boras. You not going to work in parliament and this government again and I'm going to personally see to it. Now, you knew MP's tend to exaggerate these things, but there's been a highly effective whipping operation, but I'm wondering, are you sensing some worry in parliament that Boorda's because he's had pretty much a walkover at this stage he'll have a walkover in the candidate stage. There are lots of unanswered questions about him, not whether he's a big, but basically whether he is, so relaxed his leadership style, create a vacuum into which some party Hardiman might. Step in and the Boras regime might be lot less often cuddly than it seems from his juvenile exterior, I wanna miss telling things is that, that can abortion satellites then aren't really bothering to deny that was voting taking place. What I do say that certain senior people in that campaign might have been involved. They, they're trying to say is the forest in the candidate himself didn't know anything about it. And I mean that is the frankly the review. I also think, as you say that, that one of the things is playing into is very big questions within the as I is the magazines with Burr, they're gonna three different power orbits around bursts yet. Very old London marrow crew. There are his palment relaunches the people who have been with him through the ups and downs. You have at twenty sixty in the time in the wilderness. And then they're all the people who've come on board, like, Gavin Williamson and have helped deliver this victory for, and presumably, they expect. Power non-return. Yes. And the first two groups are worried about the Lhasa group. And so, I think one of the things we are going to see is a kind of an all too. What about Boris Johnson? But his natural style is not restrict himself to one source of vice to. He will quite like the fact that they're all of these people jostling for the king's there, but I think he has to make some choices because from the moment he is likely to enter Downing Street to October thirty. First, this pivotal Davis ship is only ninety nine days and that means he cannot afford to waste an hour of that time. And so he's going to have to have a very clear structure when he enters dining Serie, and a very clear knowledge of what he is going to do. Do you think he needs to be clear structure, now because today's the day with a civil service will start talks with booth, the Kansas. Jeremy hunting Boris Johnson this happens before elections civil service will talk to the opposition, just in case you win. What would you like us to do? So this is starting now. But from what I gather Boorda's has new running the transition team in team Boorda's itself. Nobody is in charge arrest the. Boris who tends not to be around. So euro really getting sort of creative chaos now vis creative, chaos is imported into number ten wouldn't this be exactly what Michael warned us about that Boris for all of his cheering MRs ability to rally the troops as intensity, he doesn't have the decisiveness and the presence of minds to making the several difficult decisions day that prime minister needs to do, and I'm wondering to what extent, we will see not when he gets into office? But right now in his transition team whether he's able to have a hierarchy to have somebody who's in charge. In other words together grip of all these tribes who've gathered around him as James says, I think he will stop to fake us on that. And I think part of the reason that Boris Johnson allies, very happy, Jeremy hunt than the final eight is because they fear that they can actually spit that time fairly evenly between pairing for hustings against some. That everything is the greatest rat. And trying to have government will say, he he was going to be doing what I understand that Lynton Crosby team. And now coming in to help at the hustings campaigns hosting that they are going to be helping with, and that means that he, he's about extra there that will give others. You've been doing the parliamentary stages time to stop focusing on the on the transition on how what you do. Exactly when you take government because as James says, in his cover piece, this is going to be the most important ninety nine days of any prime minister given that there is a hard deadline, which may be trying to avoid, but there is a hard Brexit dead. Let an end of October which could mean that you having to potentially face a general election. You've got to say what you've done James as a tour gathering for the hustings. They will also be fighting a violation, which we hear has been cold this morning. So breckon run the show. See held by the Dem's into relatively recently. They held the seat in the washing seventy Batori impede. Chris Davis was done for fiddling his expenses. He has now been recalled versus the seconds accessible Rico following the pizza by Rico works, a new tool in the political when days if a certain I should've up for I came on. But if a certain percentage of electric in a seat, sign a petition demanding the recall of in Bonn action, baguette one, this is the second time it's happened the first being Peterborough whose MP was caught Zambia for speeding offenses. Yeah. And so I think we wait to see what happens here. I think the suspect the to Ripon he manages will be desperate to get his bond action in before Boris Johnson, all whoever becomes prime minister. Earn it actual test. I think one say show is one of the difficulties of politics right now for the Tories, which is busy did Morgan 'evote to leave. But the warriors of the Tories is that you'll find the lib Dem's could've leader could've remain alliance in this election, while the Tories in the Brexit party split the Brexit vote. No, Katie lib Dem's have been having miraculously resurrection recently, I mentioned, they will have -solutely want to win this, especially if they'd be replacing Toury, who was found to have been on the hey Dolittle, yes, and is lipped helix. Recall, petition some thought that I think feel on a Sonya. It was much more high profile case in terms of the MB had done this, cool case, she is in, I think, is conservative MP's and neighboring seas to this Hugh was skeptical that you would reach the fresh hold for full Rico, but the lip dams are. Adamant and very keen to get the seat bag and said they've run a very active campaign to get they needed about five thousand people to sign it. They got over ten thousand so they have very high hopes, and I think you'll see from the action, this is the kind of thing the lib Dem's obscene to share the keep building momentum. Now. It'll be interesting because the Brexit party light lip dams very well in the EU and actions and then had a by-election they thought they could use to show that they were an unstoppable force that can take on the tea party system in the end, they missed it slightly and elated very well, given the time it did me in that the Brexit party, I think, has reduced a little bit of the mystique, who perhaps a sense that it would necessarily take on both Tories and labour, obviously has a big affect it can have on the Tory vote. But the sense that they were gonna get lost seats in general election, I think, is in a bit more doubt. Now, the lib Dem's I think it could work in the way here, if they could win the see I think will really build into his idea that they had the pro remain Pasi. They are the ones who flocked tape, but if they don't get it, then I think you'll see again, the sense of all EU elections, Representative of what happens in first-past-the-post. The big difference is the Lib Dems in this half. The data for the Brexit party didn't have impeachable. The Dem's pointing Bod actions ver- as long as communist pop is being going, and they know what to do to win these kind of sees. And of course, it remains to be seen if Kylie will outlast lib Dem's, Katie less nights. We saw a rather disturbing video emerge climate change. Protesters has managed to get through to the Mansion House speech where they're protesting against the content of fem Philip how awful speech or something like that. But we also saw Mark Fields manhandle the protesters outside holding her by the neck and captured a very clearly on camera. I was Newsnight last night, and the image came through quite quickly. And nobody believes there is what kind of 'em reactions there. Yes, this is the climate change. Protesters' and one woman he was part of the protest was storming towards that. The top table and mock as filmed leaving his seat push. Shing her to the to the wall. And then grabbing her neck, a much Herat and it clearly on the video very heavy handed. You had Greenpeace healing to the protests suggest that he should be done for assault. I think in immediate Tom's, what means is the government have suspended him as a foreign office minister, so pending an investigation. Mark field has himself put him said he wanted to be put forward for an investigation. He has apologized. He said he made a split sex, a split-second decision to, to base the respond thinking that this person could be carrying some kind of web fused excuse I've heard of you. And so she media saying, as you could be nor seem to stretch. Yeah, he's, he's made the point that he made a split-second decision on. I think the suggestion that he accepts that was the wrong decision. What would be interesting? I mean just watching how this plays I you've seen some Tory MP's come to defense today, publicly and say that they actually think that he did, and particularly wrong because. And are in so much danger these days and times the various attacks in France, they actually do you take a chance and presume this person isn't freshening?.
"lynton crosby" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Oba Lynn, Matt Miller is on Bloomberg TV right now, as he's coming the late some Deutsche Bank story force, it'd be back shortly to join me. But first, let me take you through the monkeys. We check the monkeys every fifteen minutes here on Bloomberg radio. And the one hundred as up by two tenths of one percent, the up six cents does that should acts up nine tenths of one percent. Stoxx six hundred. So the broiled measure of European stock performance up by six tenths of one percent this morning. It seems that the fed did manage to lights, a fire runs a global equities, and that looks set to continue US feature point higher by seven tenths of one percent on S and P. E mini peaches, and the Dow down the NASDAQ futures, also pointing higher in NASDAQ futures up by mold the one percents right now. Oil prices, also high, oh, and there's a number of reasons for this one is the general growth expectations, as we have a more dovish fed the luxury of central banks globally seems to be a positive story this morning, very much. And we see oil prices high as a result by two point seven percents on WTI up by two point four percent. Brent adding to that dwindling stockpiles and the announcement that the Iranians say they shut down an American drone that he's also a adding to output momentum for oil prices. We also saw some buying a Shelton. Treasuries and indeed buying ten year treasuries on the back at the fed announcement. And so as a result, we saw those yields going low of the yield on the US tenure dropped below two percent, but I should say actually moved back above that levels holds around the two percent level right now the yield on the US two year one point seven two percent weakness in the dollar. A definite feature of the post fed monkey we action, so the dollar index by four tenths of one percent in just this morning session, and that he's quite a substantial move. The euro is stronger, the euro up by six cents of one percent at one twelve Ninety-three as. So often we saw the announcement this week. Of course, the year I was weak President Trump didn't like that very much. And we see that the euro is now stronger after we had from the fed the pound is also stronger out by seven tenths of one percent has multi with a weak dollar than UK domestic politics as a quick introduction to where we are on the market right now. Talking of UK politics. Let's get to the Tory leadership debates Boris Johnson says even further ahead of his rifles in the contest to become the UK's next prime minister on Wednesday. He's pitching clues tax cuts spending increases, and insistence that a no deal. Brexit remain an option battling to join Boras on the ballots goes to one hundred and sixty thousand cross where it's totally Ponzi men biz later on this month at from this evening. In fact, foreign secretary Jeremy hunt environment secretary Michael and home secretary, Socheat Javid. I'm pleased to say joining us here in this studio to take us through the details. UK government report test, you at Biggs, Stewart give more. It was interesting to see this boys, don't say far ahead now that he's result was exactly the same as the of the three who remained in the context together wasn't. It's all the sorry in the contest at the time addict together. So if Boris is the runaway favorite, at this point, I guess, the Buckley's now who runs alongside him when this policy members very much. So Boris Johnson is basically a shoo in at this point to be the first name on that final about it. And then you've got the three names, he would present very different challenges to Johnson. Michael gave in particular. Famously derail Johnson's leadership bathing in twenty-six of. You know, the two of them having a month to battle it out for the for the final victory is, has a lot of commentators quite interested. But obviously hunt Jeremy hunt phone secretary. Jimmy hunt is currently in second place and I'm secretary Saaji not giving up. Yes. Indeed, to sort of move a clean boy, Amy Joyce advise, you might say competitive Boris. Johnson says he Javed's I swore him Twitter posting at less than a ba- written to him by his by his one of his children saying, how proud they are affect fall family values coming through strongly hair all these things master in Tory, leadership actions Ovalles's talking of elections, though, they reach this tool that we could see an early in action. I mean, where enough is this coming from given how badly the early election idea went for Theresa May last time around this is a Bloomberg from Bloomberg last night. That members of Johnson's campaign team have been. Looking at how a, a general election would play out and what the prospects of Johnson as prime minister, what prospects heat have securing a majority in parliament that seen, as you know, the key to sort of unlocking the Brexit process, the, the risk of the moment facing all of these candidates for the leadership is that the parliamentary math itself hasn't been altered by what's been going, you know, this campaign, and therefore the risk is high that you end up reaching Taiba, which is the new deadline for Brexit with the inability to sort of come to a deal get a deal through parliament, all parliament blocking any effort to leave without leave the opinion without deal an election, very, very high risk, given the way the conservative party is polling at the moment, but election seen as a possible way to change the arithmetic in parliament, the story to it. Thank you very much Lynton Crosby. Of course, he's advised the, the conservative policy many times in the past. That's all he was talking about this. And he thinks the way that things have changed 2017 as the Jeremy cooling, wasn't seen as a real credible. Contender alita? Then and maybe now he and maybe that changes the dynamics thank you very much feel an this morning. UK government reporter Stuart bigs with us. Let's get an update on global news now. He's been Aaron's. Good morning, Anna tensions, amounting in the Middle East has Ron says it shall down a US spy drain, and it says face, but the situation is still uncertain and FOX news. Reporters tweeted navy drone we'll show down over the strait of homos in international airspace. This missile strike by rebels. They've nineteen Saudi Arabia president. She has landed in North Korea for a historic trip to pay on young mix candidate, says a meeting comes says US tubes with both China and North Korea stumble, it also case, a renewed commodity between the two neighbors and sense. Donald Trump, a message about Beijing's broader influence ahead of trade talks with she at the g twenty summit in Japan for Kim Un, it's another chance to show his options beyond a third meeting with Trump after their last summit collapsed. In Hong Kong. Karen Lee, Bloomberg daybreak Europe for the first time in the European Union's history, the jobs of income-tested own at once being bugs Maria today says we owe back for Mojo, strating Z you leaders figure out he will get won't in the European Commission. Now, there are a number of competing interests and particular when you look at the French and the German government, but the head of the European Council, Donald tusk is often mystic that a compromise will be found having set that there is already speculation that an emergency summit may be needed by the end of next week to break the deadlock in Brussels, Maria today, Bloomberg daybreak Europe, President Putin, hoses annual direct line cooling show. With Odin reversions today, believe X Antony, helping says this comes amid a simmering discontent. The live televised show.
"lynton crosby" Discussed on FT Politics
"We also do quite like a positive review. So the toy leadership contest is yet to full me begin, yet, all the candidates are going, and there's a lot of them that are now eleven candidates in the. Race to succeed Theresa May when she steps down as party leader on June. The seven there are five main candidates, but a lot of other people phone the hat into the ring possibly just to try and get themselves a better job in the next government, if they haven't got a particular chance of making it into downing sheep. So what should be, let's begin with the top of the race. And where all those people are the most obvious thing is that the fun is Boris Johnson still has not declared his formerly running to be prime minister, even though we've seen more pose this week that show. He is the favorite person amongst the conservative party's grassroots in this state is still looks like it's his to lose. Yes. I think that's right. And I think he's engaged in a bit of expectation management, if you look at the polls and the names of people declared for the various candidates, as you say, there are a handful of front is all around between the twenty Twenty-nine Mark Jeremy hunt. Boris Johnson, Dominic Robb, and so on. What's interesting is some of them are working. Very hold. And Boris Johnson terms of visibility is not working hard. Tool. He's having his private meetings, he's talking to MP's. He's working on the people who are going to vote in this first part of the contest. And I think he is deliberately deflating the level of support. He's got the moment. He's being advised at least unofficially by Lynton Crosby. I think there is an expectation management game gang on him whereby they want people to think, well, you know, maybe he's only got forty or fifty maybe it could be up for grabs. And actually, he's got quite a lot more in the bag is my hunch. And so, I think it absolutely is Boris Johnson's to lose. And I think it's going to be very difficult for those people who want to try and keep him off the top to going to the members, the key thing for Boris Robert is he doesn't want to be seen as the phone because that's quite a dangerous place to be in this race. Because as we've seen is a lot of candidates will go and attack them for being in that position. He doesn't want to be front, but he is to front run. I think he's probably ambivalent about this state is on the one hand he doesn't want to be the target for everybody else. On the other hand, if you can absolutely streak ahead. Then it becomes a fight for second. In place. And if he can really establish himself in the first ballot of MP's, then everyone will turn their mind to being his opponent and not fighting him anymore. Now, maranda green, this is where I think a lot of the considered property, I look in our eat of your own side, with Boris Johnson fine. But then it's the question who is going to be the candidate to beat him because this whole thing will start which down when parliament returns and the nineteen twenty two committee starts to run the rounds to choose the final two candidates. The stop boys candidate was thought to be some by Jeremy hunt. A lot of support, but he made these comments about a new deal begs, and he's really flip flopped on this issue, as seems to be hemorrhaging MP's and momentum. He does he's tried to keep both wings of the pulmonary party happy, which, as we've seen during the unhappy premiership of MRs Ma is quite a difficult thing to pull off. And also, I think he sort of failed to say anything memorable on those Jill positions. Whereas Matt Hancock the health secretary. He gave an interview to all paper this week in which he really decided to take on Boris Johnson..
"lynton crosby" Discussed on Monocle 24: The Globalist
"Tomorrow, British parliamentarians returned to Westminster. It promises to be an extremely interesting three months as the Brexit deadline, looms, a major rebellion by those who want a hard exit. Bruce and party conference season begins, and it's not just the ruling conservative party labor is embroiled in its own internal strife to well, his unpacked that awful buck to school feeling and look at what the Toma ahead. My hold is to allow Deaker the London Evening Standard joy. Thanks very much for coming in. Let's turn first to the group of MP's, including David Davis. The former chief negotiator for Brexit embarrassed Johnson, the former foreign secretary. He want to kill off Theresa May's Brexit plan. Both men resigned over the checkers deal. So what are they planning and who's involved? Well, there's a number of them involved in different fronts. This is sort of strange tea party of Jake breeze mall who's. You know, a Catholic besuited bespectacled man who looks like he stepped out to the Edwardian era. Boris Johnson awfulness for a secretary rather notorious now, and David Davis who all currently meeting with Lynton Crosby and interned Crosby has been known as the kind of great election strategists. He's what's number perceptions. The conservative party wet for Boris Johnson's mayoral campaigns and he's worked internationally, and he now seems to flipped from working from the government for all for the conception party ruling the moment to working for the people who are trying to oust the prime minister alongside them. There are another group of ministers led by in Duncan Smith who are now complaining about the check steel, and there are a number of letters in. Calling for her of coding for a veg. Confidence earn leader is a bit of a mess. When John Major was negotiating on European, nine thousand nine hundred. He toned the eurosceptics the Boston's. God knows what trees may is saying quietly to husband, Philip over breakfast in the morning, will they succeed in unseating her. Well, it's, it's, it's, it may be that she owns seats herself at the end of it. We all get into a crunch point where everything she seems to be proposing to the EU twenty-seven is hitting a wall or several walls. Actually one is the brakes, tears in department in her in. Party. The other is a few remains on her side and remains on the opposition side. And then this Michelle Bonier on the deadline. The other thing she's hitching is the deadline. So we've got to have something agreed by mid-november. Begins to increasingly look like we won't have a proper agreement. The check is deal will have to vote in. Parliament. Looks like she's going to lose that and having sort of wiggled and squirmed all Hawaii to this point. It looks like finally, the iceberg is unavoidable, and if that's the case, and if she does go, who would possibly want what's increasingly seen as a poisoned chalice was she went, she aware seeming. She's going to resign his. She does have this strange resilience. She may just hang on take more beating, but let us here for this point. She wants resigned so it won't be the right of the party. I imagine because I just didn't think they have the numbers. There's nobody particular on the left whose looks likely contenders. But I think there are two characters who are worth watching. One is Sergey Jovita is the new homes, new ish home secretary who is a Brexit here with some sympathy for the remain arguments. And I think he she was remain technically during the referendum. He's he's very good with business because he's been the business department and. Is that she really understands why they number of that won't remain in the EU and the other person to wash his Jeremy hunt who took over the department of health to be in charge of our NHS, which was possibly the most unpopular job new. Nobody survives that job and he survived. It did it for about years and years and years. And actually the NHS came at liking him and he's now being made foreign secretary of his troubles. He's a smooth operation. He might well be another player. As you say, of course, may may not go and she's been very vocal about the fact that there is no compromise on her checkers plan what she said. I won't be holding a second second referendum and you can wait that sentence two ways..
"lynton crosby" Discussed on talkRADIO
"Very unreasonable and there was this sort of paranoia among brexit is that if if there's a delay if there is anyone that says look you know if there was anyone who'd been honest enough to say look we haven't really prepared we need a bit longer brewster's would never have stood for that should they have beat a bit more reasonable about that because we might've ended up with a better deal i think that's obsolete to actually and i think you know there was a real mad rush just rigor article fifty straight away i think you're right paranoia is exactly the right word if it wasn't if it wasn't triggered soon enough then people would kind of forget about it in brexit would never happen if we'd actually negotiated before got some kind of day whether it looked like this or whether it look different per justice as a starting point and then get agreed on and then trigger article fifty i think it may have been a bit better and also it would have given it once you have that do have to get everything in place you know administration lee for businesses to get that ducks in a row all that kind of thing can be done post triggering article fifty but he knows where we're beyond that now it hasn't happened i've said it before i'll say theresa i did because i think she is trying to do a tight rope walk among all sorts of different opinions in her party and i'll say said it before i'll say again none of the men to stand up as well and put that put their head above the power they all ran for the hills the moment that brexit took place i think she has the problem is is the she has completely lost control i mean things like the christian get the majority yeah exactly and even even kind of longtime after that i think she's just completely relinquish control to has given the fact that brussels and the you you saw this still before harangue cabinet i think is absolutely catastrophic on if i was sat in her cabinet and thinking that women to be negotiating here you don't show your hand of cards to the person that you're playing poker with and then make your move to you and you're meant to be working as a cabinet autumn one and that's how she's gonna lose trust she's already lost trust with cabinet members already she's going to lose even more of it now i think and also she ran the most diabolical election campaign i think in history the lynton crosby the person who masterminded cameron's election majority win he says there are three things that win an election the economy the economy the economy and it was not an election where i felt the tory values of aspiring to do better and the government being behind you and very thatcherite they were displayed at all so and again and that was an another example of where she did not get her cabinet behind her because not one cabinet member apparently did not see the manifesto in full until the morning it was released until the morning it was published and that is quite shocking i mean that's when you get the you know the dementia tax and all this kind of thing with two capsule ed milliband i i would argue that theresa may's government at the moment and what they've done over the last year and a half it has been definitely more left wing than tony blair's government and potentially even what absolutely and of course we're going to end up with and i do think it was a strike a genius the nhs announcement for twenty billion pounds and that we will have to pay more because of cost now can raise taxes to pay for brexit and say nhs if you complain the nhs so it's kind of genius move on their part where analyze this little bit more and more from the newspapers we might talk about the big trump blimp as well talk coming up here on talk.
"lynton crosby" Discussed on BBC Radio 4
"Undermine her authority and damage the government andrew jackson well the prime minister needs forest the so when she has some kind of not entirely satisfactory deal she can sell it to the eurosceptic so it would be ridiculous to think that the prime minister's i mean the premise all enough on the issue in question she herself was strongly very firmly very categorically against building a third runway at heathrow so was philip hammond boris as usual selatan rather more interesting way and i think the wider public i think the people rachel speaks to our shocked by his whole style they think that politics cannot include anything reckless or exaggerated or and even even amusing but the wider public like that they want candor and politicians and they won't candor even if politicians sometimes subsequently wash about the party faithful when when you're looking at someone and thinking is this is this what we were i think what has to put oneself in the shoes of a third rate tori mp who's wired that he's going to lose his seat and when they change leader which may will before the next election they only do it once without having an election so the next leader will fight the election and they need someone who can actually reach the wider public and there aren't very many people rachel near that could name every member of the cabinet but i shouldn't think more than one person in one thousand and not sure i could myself actually most of them are so anonymous rachel this was the often called the the heineken test he still passes it doesn't he in terms of obviously the name recognition and and all the rest of it he's definitely famous but i think what's what's changed with brexit is that he's gone from being politician with outreach to quite a divisive figure so he's really disliked by the forty eight percent who feel he flip flopped and then eventually in their view came down on the wrong side i remember talking to lynton crosby about him once and he described him as a multi grain politician and a white bread era so he's interesting he's colorful he's entertaining but he's gone from being that sort of heineken politician to a very sort of divisive figure in a way he wasn't before the brexit referendum he wants to be a divisive figure has one of his weaknesses is that he wants to be liked and i think he could extend an olive branch to you rachel he would i think he entirely appreciates an audience of one of the convincing things about mostly found it very difficult to make up his mind on europe he wasn't he hasn't been believed it wasn't sort of stern on bending follow up the point is not how he wants to be seen but he is actually seeing how that might have shifted since the referendum well i think there will be a stop boris campaign and justice heseltine was stopped by found on the whole less interesting figure to lead them very lightly the same will happen next time but but i mean also in terms of public perception there yet this very interesting politician that people want to listen to you know in in the last few years there the with comments about business once we can repeat on the on the radio that some of the gloss might have come off him in that in that period what he won twice in two thousand eight hundred thousand twelve that some time ago but i don't i think i think his shares are now undervalued i think because the seriousminded people simply finding stylistically intolerable they don't realize that actually the wider public don't don't pay much attention to the detail of these things and they like someone who can actually bring a smile to their faces and actually has the courage to say things let's go back rachel to to to the tory mp's the ones who would have the first go at at at selecting a future leader how how will this how might this change their views.
"lynton crosby" Discussed on The Guardian UK: Politics Weekly
"The conservative manifesto is pretty policy light there wasn't much to discard gonna take a moment to defend the guardian because i'm not gonna speak for any other papers inside that with one of the things we did very deliberately and in fact i even predicted a hung parliament on this very podcast early on in the campaign was we didn't actually put the polls at the top of any of the stories and we made very deliberate effort not to do that now jeremy corbyn fans have the frustrations of the guardian i understand that completely but the aim of what we wanted today was to try to fake his actually on the policies and i think we did for example scrutinize the social castoff incredibly strongly through the campaign that doesn't mean that there are no mayor copos there are after every campaign and they just sandy right this fascinating piece this week about the tories who have this reputation as being brilliant election winners and in fact have failed to win an election and any convincing manner since nineteen eighty seven not as thirty years anti what are they doing wrong one of the main things revved on roma moved on increasing recent simone to to election when they won narrowly an unexpectedly by going very negative is they become addicted to negative campaigning on his of of massage lynton crosby vehicles trillion political consultant who's been involved in law of the recent campaigns by think it goes deeper than that i think the conservative party egged on by the rightwing press thinks that monsters labor sufficiently that's enough to win elections and i think that's a very useful thing to do from that point of view and it's coin defective but it probably doesn't get you too big majorities and when fat was running elections in in the late seventies in the eighties there was a negative silent but there was also be positive offer about mass shareholding propertyowning democracy all that kind of stuff and i think the conservatives have become too negative.
"lynton crosby" Discussed on FT Politics
"Is your choice but it certainly went over well even people he wouldn't think we're fan of such thing so for example round renationalization might be quite a good idea in the strangest quarters i have heard this said the other thing was that they were an up against a conservative manifesto which was much more an instruction to the population to take the medicine so you had a very unappealing conservative manifesto and a very promised the earth labour manifesto and then the social care so cool dementia tax became the kind of focus fool the unattractiveness of that whole conservative program the second problem the conservative party had had it is not the campaign they were spice reflecting they were supposed to be fighting a lynton crosby playbook campaign he knows how to win elections you'll supposed to be as dull as possible have one slogan one strong leader and ball the electorate until polling day with your singular approach the problem for to resume as she's also got powerful characters around her principally nick timothy had policy chief who wanted a manifesto that was ambitious and a radical programme ford a may government could do the two things do not gel you cannot have a boring linton crosby style formula and a bunch of incredibly controversial eat polka making measures to transform the nation most of which sound difficult dangerous if they might hit you in your pocket to the voters now before we get too carried away with this manama's joey corbyn's on outside down and she thought to still key indicators vis suggest the trees me is still going to triumph in some form warm is her personal leadership gratings and the second is trust on the economy and this was the classic indicated f i'm right and say i don't think anybody has ever won an election wiping behind on both of those and joe mccolgan they've all still faith far behind but mr corbett's ratings have improved but he still way behind theresa may's all right.