17 Burst results for "Lyle Brainard"
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lyle brainard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"To look at what this means for the Senate as a whole and we'll discuss the incredible shrinking office. Not just that more people want to work from home but office space itself is dropping a trend that actually started before the pandemic. But we begin with the big disconnect of 2023 at least the where economy is concerned because many predicted that the big economic story for this year would be a recession. President Biden's top economic advisor, the director of the National Economic Council, Lyle Brainard, is a former chair vice of the Federal Reserve and last month she discussed the risk of recession in the near term. We are seeing strong ongoing growth with inflation coming down. We're seeing unemployment staying below 4 % 20 months in a row now with inflation coming down and so those data which have been sustained now for relatively a long period of time suggest that there's ongoing resilience there. So we haven't seen a recession. There is no expectation of a recession and the resilience of the economy has analysts believing that if there is a recession, the recovery will be swift. So the story, the disconnect is between the consumer sentiment and consumer behavior. Let's bring in Betsy Stevenson, Bloomberg a opinion columnist and an associate professor of public policy and economics at the University of Michigan. She was also on the President's Council of Economic Advisers and was the chief economist at the Department of Labor. Tell us what is going on. What is this disconnect? Well, you know, when a lot of people hear this, they're like, of course people are mad. Prices are high. They're higher than they were in 2019 and they don't like that. And the fact that prices are high and that makes people mad is not the puzzle. It's that they are spending more than they were spending in 2019 and not as just more in, you know, they have to spend more to make up for inflation, but they're buying even stuff more there, you know, treating themselves. Consumption spending adjusted for inflation very, is very high. So they're spending as if they think it's good economic times. But then when we ask them, how do you feel about the economy? They are in the dumps, you know, as low in this period as they were in some parts of the 2008 recession. Would this be more of a reflection of a political affiliation if you're complaining about the economy and at the same time you're spending more money than you've ever spent before? Not because of inflation, but because you want more stuff. So, economists tend to believe in what we call revealed preference. So this is where this disconnect is very puzzling to economists because you're telling me you think things are but bad, you're spending as if you think things are good. So which is it? Is it what you're saying out loud or is it your behavior? One of the things that could explain that kind of difference would be if actually you think the economy is fine, that's why you're spending like it's fine, but you're telling people who ask you, you're telling the pollsters that you hate the economy because you're a Republican and the Democrats in power that and makes you hate the economy no matter what's happening. And in fact, there's recent research that's come out that shows that that can explain about 40 % of the disconnect. So we do have a partisan veil that affects our perceptions. Luckily, that partisan veil doesn't affect our behavior. So we have seen disconnect like this before. That's an historical that would go along with this. Um, such a good question you just asked. What we see is not as big of a disconnect as we're seeing right now. That's why it can only explain about 40 % of the disconnect. But what we do typically see is if I ask you how the economy is doing, and then I look at your your spending, on average, those things have been pretty well lined up. But if I then also had asked you, you know, what party do you identify with, what you'll see is that the Republicans are more optimistic about the economy when there's a Republican in power, you know, even when the economy is doing sort of poorly, and the Democrats would be less optimistic about it, and the reverse would be true if a Democrat was in power. So, you know, we don't see the kind of disconnect we're seeing right now, on average, but we do see that there is somewhat of a disconnect. And so some people have argued that it's the increase in partisanship that that has caused this big disconnect. And we are talking with Bloomberg columnist Betsy Stevenson about the big disconnect between consumer sentiment and consumer behavior. money illusion, which you mentioned in your column, what is that? How does that apply here? You know, when you get a raise, everybody wants to think that that raise is because of your hard work. And so you your want income to go up, you want to get that raise, but you don't want the prices to go up. Now, sometimes get we a raise because of our hard work. But a lot of the times we get a raise just because of inflation. And inflation is when all prices in the economy are going up average, on and that usually includes the prices of workers. So like that, that's one of the reasons why we can never reverse inflation. And that's something I think people really hate. But if we wanted to take all prices in the economy down 20 % on average, we'd all have to take a 20 % pay cut to do it, as well as cutting the prices of the things we pay for. Because it's that idea that if I walk into a grocery store and I hand over $100 for my groceries, well, that's $100 of revenue for the grocery store and the grocery store uses that money to pay its workers. So think about a mom and pop store. They're paying themselves and they're paying their suppliers, so if you're paying more, somebody's getting more. Is it the supplier? Is it the mom and pop? Money illusion is the fact that we focus on what are called nominal prices, that's the sticker price, for some things and we tend to try to think about real prices, meaning adjusted for inflation for other things and that means that we can be angry about the prices while not being angry about what that has meant for, say, our house I prices. have yet to hear somebody in this economy say, inflation is out of control. My stock portfolio is up too much. My house price is up too much. It's this ridiculous inflation, that stuff needs to come down. My house price better fall 20%. Nobody's saying that. People who want to buy a house who aren't in the market are saying that, but not the people who own a house. We tend to focus on the way inflation harms us and then then we try to ignore the way it benefits us. I'm wondering how long this connect can last or does it matter how long it lasts? Is it something that's sustainable? Is it something that folks will eventually grow out of, the pendulum will swing? That's good such a question. I think there are two distinct things, which is how long does it keep distorting people's behavior? I think people eventually get used to higher prices. You know, I think my grandparents probably never stopped complaining about the fact that, you know, they used to only have to pay five cents for a Coke. But I think that they probably were buying, you know, they were making buying about Coke at the end of their life as if they didn't have money illusion. But they certainly were still complaining about it. So that money illusion can affect our perception that things have gotten worse, I think, a for long time. And it probably depends a lot on sort of how old you are when these things happen. And whether, to be clear, occur. Inflation hurts some people while it benefits others. It tends to be very redistributive. distributed, And if we look in our economy over the last couple of years, the people who change jobs got huge wage increases. So those are some of the people who who won, but not everybody wanted to or could change jobs. And the people who stayed in their jobs ended up really losing out. Their wages didn't keep up with inflation. if you look at union members, their wages weren't keeping up with inflation. That's why we've seen any big union battles, like the UAW. Their wages had eroded really substantially due to inflation because they didn't have a cost of living adjustment in their contract. So people who are hurt by inflation may feel angry about it for the rest of their lives.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lyle brainard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Council director lyle brainard made the comments at the economic club of new york as for the overseas economy carried in the g d p in the uk fell a tenth of one percent in may after a slight in april it shrank less than expected in asia china's exports fell for a second straight month in june while imports slumped six point eight percent meanwhile nathan tensions between china and the u .s may be heating back up this morning sources tell us commerce secretary jina raimondo had her emails breached and a hack that came out of china raimondo has been a prominent american figure implementing export curbs on semiconductor technology to china and yet talks remain ongoing between u .s and chinese officials with secretary of state china's top foreign policy official wang yi said to speak today in jakarta we've got some corporate news uh back here in the u .s karen the walt disney company is extending the contract of ceo bob eiger for another two years bloomberg senior editor chris palmeri says after eiger's surprise returned to the house of mouse don't see this move is a shock when he stepped back into the role last year two years didn't seem like a lot of time to groom a successor which is one of his chief priorities they don't have anybody really at the corporate level who's had the kind of all -around corporate experience that they probably need this gives bob till 26 to meet that challenge bloomberg's chris palmeri says bob eiger and disney face several challenges including increasing streaming revenue and maintaining a strong theme park business anything there's another allen said eiger and other media executives face hollywood actors who might go on strike the actors union contract with movie and tv producers expired last night sag after a members will now vote on whether to strike later this morning futures this morning are on the rise s &p futures a third of a percent of sixteen points down futures up two tenths of a percent or seventy seven points and as that features up seven tenths of a percent or one hundred three points and the dax in germany's up six tenths of a percent thanks again hong kong jumped two point six percent today ten -year treasury of nine thirty seconds you three point eighty percent they yield on the two -year four point six four percent nine x crude oil up two tenths of a percent or eighteen cents at seventy dollars five ninety three cents a barrel and comex gold up a tenth of a percent straight ahead we have your latest local headlines plus a check of sports it's five five thirty one on wall street time to bring in michael bar for a look at what else is going on in new york and around the world michael thank you very much nathan general services take place today for one of the two new york firefighters killed in last week's ship cargo fire at port newark this morning's funeral for gusto acobo who was forty five will be held at the cathedral basilica of the sacred heart in newark meanwhile a viewing be will held at the same church tonight for the other firefighter killed the funeral for who was 49 is tomorrow president joe biden will close out his five -day trip to europe today in finland joined as nato's newest member earlier this year an entry that effectively doubled the alliances border with russia biden's trip is on the heels of the nato summit in lithuania where leaders is the pathway for ukraine's eventual membership when putin and his payment was for land and power unleashes brutal war in ukraine he was betting nato would break apart meanwhile turkish president race of time for the one vowed to speed up the ratification of sweden's membership of nato when his country's parliament returns from a two -month summer recess several tornadoes swept through areas west of chicago last night one twister even touching down at o 'hare airport a tornado churned through the chicago suburb of mccook mayor terry kar first time seen something like this we all went home nobody even knew a storm was coming all of a sudden the tornado sirens going off and everybody's running back get and our phones our are everybody's calling and tones are going off so this is a it just came through i mean we had no warning at all so far there are no reports of fatalities are serious injuries global news twenty four hours a day power more but than twenty seven hundred journalist analysts in over a hundred twenty countries are michael bar and this bloomberg needed thank you michael five thirty three on wall street time for the bloomberg sports update with john stachow thanks nathan women's semifinals today at wimbledon then second -seeded arena sabalenka takes on six -seeded on jebur last year she lost in the finals at both wimbledon and the u .s. open and two unseeded players made market avondra sova and svetlana she's been a big story ranked seventy six the wildcard entries of the svetlana is just back lane after giving birth only nine months ago and she's from ukraine baseball's back tomorrow yankees he's at colorado that's a place where you normally can score some runs yankees have struggled to do that that's why they just fired their hitting coach replaced him with a very confident sean casey i've been there a point where under teaching first half thing i've had you know those struggles and you know i think you know i know i'm going to be able to tap into these guys and you'll get that get their talent out we're too
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lyle brainard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Their families join us we are lls and when we walk cancer runs join your community and help bring light to the darkness of cancer join us as we light the night find your local event at lighthenight .org that's lighthenight .org Bloomberg television first in global business news the and they are moving from new york to san francisco headlines involving from london to hong kong it has been a week of huge gyrations the world turns to bloomberg for market headlines all eyes are on what's going on in the tech space the dollar really taking control here Bloomberg television the bloomberg business app in bloomberg .com check your local listings to the your area moment news breaks no one covers the world like bloomberg image of latimer putting as the all -powerful leader has been rattled already history was made here at the federal courthouse in miami when donald trump became the first ever former president to ever be arranged on federal charges we're going to need a new engine technology and that's where the real battle lies and whoever makes that decision first is Bloomberg what we've seen in the actual data has been a lot of resilience we've actually seen that market improved due to the very large increase we've seen in participation of working -age americans and so there are reasons to think that we are going to continue to see resilience against a backdrop of what we have referred to as more stable economic growth. An optimistic tone taken by National the Economic Council director Lyle Brainard formerly of the Federal Reserve System. She's getting a little more visible there to say the least how about on the chances of a US recession at the White House press briefing
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lyle brainard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"And factories. When the gas enters the atmosphere, it traps heat and contributes to the warming of the climate. And China has pledged to invest in additional $1.9 billion in the country's biggest maker of memory chips, the money is going to Yangtze memory technologies. It's a deal that may signal a renewed influx of government support into an industry hit by U.S. sanctions. And as the Bloomberg and JIT stem report, you know, Nathan, those space launches, they never get old. Yeah, and the always exciting. Not just the launches, but the rockets landing now. I get chills. Thank you, Karen. We're coming up to 6 44 on Wall Street. Time to check what's happening closer to earth in the nation's capital. Some of the top stories there include President Biden set for his first veto over an anti ESG Bill. The fed becoming a progressive punching bag as the president weighs his next pick and a new cyber plan that would hold software makers responsible for hacks. For more, we're joined by Bloomberg government congressional reporter Jack Fitzpatrick, Jack first, I want to get to the breaking news across the Bloomberg terminal moments ago on a red headline the G 20 failing to agree on language over Russia's war. I don't think this came as too big a surprise given that Russia is part of the G 20. Yes, Russia is a member. So these were the foreign ministers that could not agree to the language there, but actually a similar meeting that happened among finance ministers and Central Bank heads over the weekend and they also failed to reach a consensus on the language there and Russia and China had objected to the use of the word war. So this was not surprising given the difficulty of describing Russia's actions via a group in which Russia itself is represented. One surprise to come out of this India gathering Jack. Secretary of State Antony Blinken apparently had a brief face to face with his counterpart from Russia. Yes, this was on the sidelines. I was not something that was planned, but happened briefly and somewhat unexpectedly. And our colleagues are actually The New York Times has reported that in that meeting, secretary blinken made a few points, one the U.S. was going to continue to support Ukraine for as long as it takes Russia should rejoin the new start nuclear treaty and that Russia should release Paul. The American citizen who's been imprisoned there for a while. So essentially reiterating a few points that the U.S. had made quite clearly and not exactly a meeting in the middle stance by secretary blinken in this unexpected meeting with Sergei Lavrov. All right, let's turn back to the nation's capital and potential veto a promised veto really from President Biden over ESG Bill. Tell us more about that. Yes. This is a bill that he will get the chance to veto. This is the bill that would block the Labor Department rule that would allow retirement plan managers to take into account the environmental social governance factors into their investing, this happened a bit strangely through the congressional review act, which allows Congress to block executive actions like that with a simple majority in the Senate, but it's still needs the president's signature to become law. So this actually passed yesterday in a 50 to 46 vote in the Senate. There are a few absences, a narrow majority. It is politically notable because you saw two Democrats join with all the Republicans present senators Joe Manchin and John tester. So this does not seem to be something that's going to be enacted unless the president has a very surprising change of heart. He will veto it. But it is his first veto as the House and Senate both narrowly got this through. All right, let's keep an eye on the fed now. President Biden still has to name a successor to Lyle brainard as vice chair and it looks like progressives trying to put thumbs on the scale, so to speak. Yeah, Elizabeth Warren in particular has kind of led the charge among progressives seeking someone to counter Jerome Powell, Warren has said that Powell has made clear that he will take extreme steps in her words on interest rates and again in her words that he's willing to put millions of people out of work. This is sort of the debate on exactly how much unemployment you have to see in order to get inflation under control. There's a little bit of a back and forth on two names on Biden's shortlist Karen dinan and Janice Everly Everly is more of the dovish pick that progressives would like and they're going to continue to pretty vocally push for someone more on the dovish side who's more concerned with keeping unemployment low. And finally, Jack, what's this new cybersecurity strategy out from The White House? Yes, they're supposed to release that today about a 30 page document. That notably says that software makers should be held liable when they don't live up to the duty of care. They owe consumers business or critical infrastructure providers in the words of the portion of it that has been sent to reporters, there had been complaints from some U.S. government officials that tech companies, including Microsoft and Twitter hadn't done enough to secure user accounts. This is a strategy by The White House that would need legislating. It would need work from Congress, but it is a definitely a notable view that The White House is now pushing in a document they're set to put out today. And thanks for this. As always, Jack Bloomberg government, congressional reporter, Jack Fitzpatrick with us from the nation's capital and you can read more about these stories on Bloomberg dot com or on the Bloomberg terminal, follow all the latest on Bloomberg radio in Washington, Bloomberg 99 one and one O 5.7 FM HD two. S&P futures are now down 15 points watching Dow futures move higher now they're up 61 and NASDAQ futures still lower down 69 points, ten year treasuries down 7 30 seconds for yield of 4.02%, nymex crude is up about a half of 1% at $78 12 cents a barrel, the Euro weaker against the dollar at 1.0628. This is Bloomberg. I'm Stacey Maria Ishmael, managing editor of crypto for Bloomberg news. I'm your host for Bloomberg crypto, a daily Bloomberg I hard podcast. Join me weekdays for a
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lyle brainard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Begin in the UK where data this morning show inflation is slowing more than expected. CPI rose 10.1% from a year earlier, the lowest marks in September. Emmanuel cow, head of European equity strategy at Barclays, says investors are still wary of UK stocks. If you start to see some moderation inflation there, if you start to see the cost of leading crisis moderating, I guess, that might revive interest on the footage to fit in the more domestic part of the equity market, but speaking to global investors is a hard to fit much interest. I would say on the equity space in the UK. Hey, Manuel cow, at Barclays, believes they're still opportunity in Europe. He says rates don't weigh as heavily on Euro equities as they do in the U.S.. Well, speaking of the U.S., Karen fed officials insist rates could go higher if inflation here remains sticky, Richmond fed president Tom barkin tells us controlling inflation remains a top priority. New York fed chief John Williams thinks the fed's rate hike path will get prices back to their target. I am confident that the gears of monetary policy will continue to move in a way that will bring inflation down to 2%. New York fed president John Williams spoke at the New York bankers association in Manhattan this morning fed officials get more data to digest at 8 30 Wall Street time. We'll get the January reading on retail sales. In the meantime, in D.C. Nathan, one of the fed's most dovish voices is headed to The White House, President Biden named vice chair Lyle brainard as his top economic adviser. As for earnings in the U.S., a couple travel related companies are up in early trading, Airbnb gave a strong first quarter forecast and TripAdvisor beat fourth quarter estimates. And to Twitter now, CEO Elon Musk is reportedly taking steps to boost his tweets, we get the latest live with Bloomberg Steve rappaport, Steve good morning. Good morning, Karen and Nathan. Elon Musk says engineers are making adjustments to the social network's algorithm after a flood of the CEO's post Super Bowl thoughts generated a flood of complaints. The tech news website platformer reports Musk order changes to put his tweets front and center because his post supporting the Philadelphia Eagles just didn't get the attention he wanted. The since deleted tweet generated about 9 million impressions, whereas a similar tweet from President Biden was viewed more than 29 million times. Musk has more than three times the amount of followers than the leader of the free world. Live in New York, I'm Steve rappaport, Bloomberg, daybreak. All right, Steve, thanks. That's the 5 things that you need to notice start your day brought to you by interactive brokers. Futures this morning they're moving lower S&P futures down a third of a percent down 13 points down futures down to tenths of a percent or 70 points and NASDAQ futures down four tenths of a percent or 52 points. Ten year treasury up two 30 seconds, the yield 3.73% in the yield on the two years at 4.60%
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lyle brainard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Index futures are lower this morning. We check the markets all day long here on Bloomberg S&P futures down a third of a percent or 15 points down features down to tenths of a percent or 72 points, and NASDAQ futures are down half percent or 57 points, ten year treasury up three 30 seconds, yo 3.73%, Nathan. Karen, we begin with inflation and interest rates in focus around the world. Let's start in Europe or data this morning show UK inflation slowed more than expected. We go live to London and get the latest with Bloomberg's UN pots. Good morning Ewan. Good morning, Nathan and Karen UK consumer prices rose 10.1% in the year to January down from the ten and a half percent pace in the previous month. It's the third month of declining inflation with a dip in the price of fuel for cars a key driver, restaurant prices also rising more slowly. It's welcome news for the Bank of England, but with inflation still 5 times over target and wage growth coming in hot, the bank has plenty of work to do. In London, I'm in big daybreak. All right, you and thanks. Well, back here in the U.S., more fed officials are raising the specter of higher rates. We spoke exclusively with Richmond fed president Thomas barkin. We may or may not choose to take rates up further if inflation continues to persist. But we'll have to see what happens. If inflation settles, maybe we don't go quite as far. But if inflation persists at levels well above our target, maybe we'll have to do more. Like Richmond fed president Tom bark in New York fed chief John Williams said controlling inflation remains the top priority. I am confident that the gears of monetary policy will continue to move in a way that will bring inflation down to 2%. We will say the course into a large job is done. New York fed president John Williams spoke at the New York bankers association in Manhattan. Well, Karen, one of the fed's most dovish voices is headed to The White House, President Biden has named vice chair Lyle brainard as his top economic adviser, and the president's also promoting Jared Bernstein to chairman of the council of economic advisers. Moody's analytics chief economist Mark zandy says he is a fan of both. They both have a long history working with President Biden and the rest of the administration. They've been in the layout in the treasury and fed and Jared's been was vice president vice President Biden back in Obama administration. Mark zandy at moody spoke with our Washington correspondent Joe Matthew on Bloomberg sound on, catch the show weekdays, 5 p.m. eastern on Bloomberg radio or listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts. Well, now Nathan fed officials yet another economic report to inform their next policy decision and this morning we get the January reading on retail sales and here with the preview is Bloomberg's Michael McKee. Americans did something different in January. They bought more cars. That should help retail sales rebound after a surprise decline in December. The gasoline they put in those cars also cost more during the month and sales are denominated in dollars. Clothing stores may also have seen higher sales as apparel prices unexpectedly rose in January. That's not the dynamic, the fed wants to see policymakers are hoping demand drops so inflation will fall. A strong retail report would keep market concerns about higher interest rates front and center. Michael McKee Bloomberg daybreak. Mike, thanks on the earnings front watching shares of Barclays. They are down more than 8 and a half percent. The company or the banks trading about fixed income and equities missed estimates, Barclays also docked its bonus pool by about $600 million last year. On the flip side, commodities giant Glenn core saw its profit rise 60% to a record $34.1 billion. Glenn core will also return more than $7 billion to shareholders in dividends and buybacks. Well, here in the U.S., Nathan a couple of travel related companies are surging in early trading, Airbnb gave a first quarter revenue forecast that was stronger than expected and online travel company trip adviser reported fourth quarter results that beat estimates and both stocks are up more than 9% this morning. Turning to Silicon Valley now, it looks like you're not going to see a new CEO at Twitter until next year. Elon Musk talked about the succession plan at the world government summit in Dubai. I think I need to stabilize the organization and just make sure it's financially healthy place and that the product road map is clearly laid out. So I don't know, I'm guessing probably towards the end of this year, it would be good timing to find someone else to run the company because I think it should be in a stable position around at the end of this year. Meantime, Musk is reportedly taking steps to boost his tweets. We get the latest live with Bloomberg Steve rapaport, Steve good morning. Good morning, Karen and Nathan. Elon Musk was said to be incensed when his Super Bowl tweet generated a mere 9 million impressions, whereas a similar post from President Biden was viewed more than 29 million times. The tech news website platformer reports Musk ordered his team to alter the social network's algorithm to prioritize his posts. Twitter users on Monday could play their feeds were flooded with Musk's musings. The CEO later tweeted stay tuned while we make adjustments to the uh algorithm that last word in quotes, live in New York, I'm Steve rappaport, Bloomberg daybreak. All right, Steve, thanks, moves by Warren Buffett to tell you about this morning. Berkshire Hathaway increased the size of its bets on Apple, paramount global and Louisiana Pacific in the fourth quarter. At the same time, Buffett slashed his holding of Taiwan's semiconductor manufacturing just months after disclosing a major stake, Taiwan Semiconductor is down almost 4%. And from one billionaire to another, ray dalio is speaking out about U.S. China relations, the founder of Bridgewater associates says China is coming out on top in the trade war with the U.S., but he told the conference in Dubai the standoff between the world's two biggest economies will likely not escalate into military conflict. Straight ahead your latest local headlines, plus a check of sports and this is Bloomberg. It is 47° in Central Park. It's going to be partly sunny breezy and quite mild today, highs in
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lyle brainard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"I'm Karen Moscow, U.S. stock index futures on the rise this morning. We check the markets all day long year on Bloomberg S&P futures up a quarter percent or ten points down futures up about two tenths of a percent or 51 points at NASDAQ futures up four tenths of a percent or 48 points ten year treasury up three 30 seconds yield 3.68% Nathan. Karen, we begin with the key inflation report that markets have been waiting for January's consumer price data is due out at 8 30 a.m. Wall Street time and we get a preview from Bloomberg's Michael McKee. Starting with the good news, headline inflation is forecast to have fallen again in January. But that's because of base effects, the fact that it was higher last year at this time. The bad news is on a month to month basis, January prices likely rose at a faster pace. Some things like gasoline and used cars rose in price, but the government is also rejiggering its seasonal adjustments of the weight it puts on various sectors. That will give the CPI a statistical boost. Bottom line markets in the fed will likely look through the report, anticipating some reversion this month. The fed doesn't meet again until March 22nd. Michael McKee Bloomberg daybreak. All right, Mike, thanks for turning to The White House now. It looks like President Biden is set to pick a new top economic adviser. Let me get the latest live with Bloomberg Steve rappaport. Steve good morning. Good morning, Karen and Nathan. President Biden is Tapping Federal Reserve vice chair Lyle brainard for the job with an announcement coming as soon as today, according to people familiar with the matter. As director of the national economic council, brainard will have a prominent role as the administration shifts focus to the implementation of laws such as the inflation reduction act. Her appointment to succeed NSC director Brian deese creates an opening on the Federal Reserve board of governors as the Central Bank continues considers when to pause its campaign of aggressive interest rate hikes, live in New York, I'm Steve rappaport, Bloomberg daybreak. Thanks, Steve, turning to Europe. We're seeing wages in the UK rise more than expected. Let's go to London, get the very latest with Bloomberg's you and Ponce. Good morning Ewan. Good morning, Nathan and Karen average earnings in the UK executing bonuses rose 6.7% in the three months to December from the previous year, ignoring the pandemic, that's the fastest pace since records began in 2001. The reading another sign of Britain's tight labor market will provide ammunition to bank of the policymakers to hike rates again next month. The latest inflation data comes tomorrow. In London, I'm in big day break. All right, you and thanks for in Asia today, the yen is rising as kazuo oeda is officially nominated to helm the bank of Japan, analysts say the move will likely pave the way for a gradual pairing back of the Central Bank stimulus program and checking the yen right now. It should one 32.32 against the dollar. Let's get the latest developments on the China balloon incident Karen Washington and Beijing are weighing whether to hold a diplomatic meeting on the suspected spying device in the coming days. Amy Morris has details from our Bloomberg 99 one newsroom in Washington. Sources tell Bloomberg news that Secretary of State Antony Blinken is considering a meeting with Wang Yi, China's top diplomat had a security conference later this week. This would be their first face to face talks since the balloon uproar that led to a new spike intentions, senior officials say they have nothing official to announce. Blinken had called off his trip to Beijing last week after the U.S. identified the alleged Chinese spy balloon hovering over U.S. airspace. The U.S. says that balloon, which was shot down off the coast of South Carolina, was part of a global surveillance system since then three more objects have been shot down. In Washington, I made me Morris Bloomberg daybreak. All right, Amy, thanks for the U.S. Military, says it's recovered significant debris from that suspected spy balloon, and there's still a lot we don't know about the other objects taken down over the U.S. and Canada. That's according to Republican congressman dusty Johnson of South Dakota, who sits on the house China select committee. He wants to know more about China's motivations. Are they trying to probe our defenses? And is this the kind of traffic that's always been there and we're just doing a better job of catching it now or is this a new and perhaps more nefarious stage in the relationship between us and whoever's sending them? And Republican congressman dusty Johnson spoke on Bloomberg sound on, catch the show weekdays at 5 p.m. eastern on Bloomberg radio or listen anytime on demand wherever you get your podcasts. Or watching oil this morning, it is trading lower on news, The White House plans to sell more crude from the strategic petroleum reserve. We get the story from Bloomberg's Charlie pellet. Delivery's estimated to happen between April and June sources say the non emergency sale will amount to 26 million barrels of crude and as part of the congressionally mandated sale that lawmakers approved years ago for the current fiscal year. The energy department has sought to stop some of the sales required by 2015 legislation, so it can refill the emergency reserve, which currently has about 371 million barrels. After this latest release, the reserve will dip to about 345 million barrels. In New York, Charlie pellet, Bloomberg day break. All right, Charlie, thanks checking oil prices down. Nymex crews down one and a half percent or a dollar 18 at $78 96 cents a barrel Brent is down about 1% trading at $85 70 cents. I incorporate news this morning, Nathan, we have more job cuts coming to Ford, the automaker says it will eliminate about 3800 positions across Europe. The company is also trimming jobs in the U.S. as CEO Jim Farley targets $3 billion in savings
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lyle brainard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Trading. Let's get you up to date on the news you need to know what this shower, we begin, what January's report on consumer prices. It's due by 8 30 Wall Street time. RBC capital markets head of U.S. equity strategy, Laurie calvasina, is looking at how growth stocks will respond to the number. We'll see what the data shows, but I do think that if we get a favorable reading in that fed view, know that the fed is going to be able to pause before too long comes back into play. I think there is still some room for those tech sectors or the growth sectors to run and I would say among those three tech would be our favorite. And Laurie Calvin, with RBC capital markets, says traders are trying to gauge when the fed will pause rate hikes. In the meantime, at The White House, Karen President Biden is set to pick his new top economic adviser in Bloomberg Steve rappaport joins us live with the details. Good morning, Steve. Good morning, Nathan and Karen. Lyle brainard is leaving the fed to head up President Biden's national economic council sources tell Bloomberg an official announcement could come as soon as today, as vice chair of the Federal Reserve brainard supported the Central Bank's aggressive rate hikes to fight inflation in her new role, brandard will highlight the administration's efforts on that front with legislative accomplishments like the inflation reduction act. Brainard will succeed NEC director Brian deese, he's expected to leave The White House this month. Live in New York, I'm Steve rappaport, Bloomberg, daybreak. All right, Steve, thanks well overseas wages in the UK rose at the fastest pace in more than two decades. Pressuring the Bank of England to keep hiking rates. In Asia, Karen were seeing the end strength in a bit against the dollar trading at one 32.32 right now. That's after Cosmo oeda was officially nominated to helm the bank of Japan. The move could lead to a pairing back of the Central Bank stimulus program. And out of the latest on the China balloon incident Nathan, Secretary of State Anthony blinken is considering meeting with Beijing's top diplomat later this week. And that's after blinken called off his recent trip to China. The U.S. Military says it has recovered significant debris from that balloon. Republican congressman dusty Johnson of South Dakota says there's more to learn about these unknown objects in U.S. airspace. I actually think the balloons will be a very small piece of it. Even if you were only going to look at the way that the Chinese Communist Party surveils Americans, the balloons would be a very small piece of it. Republican congressman dusty Johnson spoke on Bloomberg sound on, catch the program weekdays at 5 p.m. eastern listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts. And futures this morning are on the rise Nathan S&P futures at 8 points up to tenths of a percent down futures up a tenth of a percent or 38 points at NASDAQ futures up three tenths of a percent or about 35 points in the ten year treasury up two 30 seconds, yield 3.69%. Straight ahead, we have your latest local headlines, plus a check of sports and this is Bloomberg. Thank you, Karen. It's 5 31 on Wall Street and Michael Barr is here with more on what's going on in New York and around the world, Michael. Thank you very much, Nathan. Police say a man suspected of killing three people and wounding 5 more in Michigan state university in east Lansing has died, authorities say he was not
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lyle brainard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"D.C. will get world national news. And we'll do that with Nate and Hager. Okay, Paul, thanks for waiting for comments in just a few minutes actually from President Biden on continued support for the war in Ukraine this comes as U.S. officials tell Bloomberg news that the Biden administration has signed off on sending Ukraine 31 M1 Abrams tanks in a deal with General Dynamics valued at $400 million. This comes after Germany promised dozens of its own leopard two tanks for Ukraine. We get more from Bloomberg's Amy Morris in Washington. The tanks give Ukraine a significant upgrade in the firepower they can deploy against Russia and helps them prepare for a springtime Russian offensive. In a joint effort with European allies, Germany says it will provide more than 100 tanks, something Ukraine officials said they desperately need to help them punch through enemy lines, but the bulk of those tanks might not arrive in time to counter Russia. Russia's ambassador to Germany warned the move quote takes the conflict to a new level of confrontation. In Washington, I'm Amy Morris, Bloomberg radio. Thanks again, we're standing by for those comments from President Biden the next few minutes they're scheduled for noon, Wall Street time will have it covered for you live here on Bloomberg radio. The president may be looking to the fed for his next top economic adviser. The Washington Post is reporting vice chair Lyle brainard has emerged as the FrontRunner to succeed Brian deese as chair of the national economic council. Reports, this is a crucial position. That's really critical job, especially as the president is dealing with higher inflation and obviously, as there's been a number of economic issues when you deal with gasoline prices, grocery bills, and also as they are have this economic sanctions against Russia, which has created a number of blowback issues and supply chains following COVID. Bloomberg's Android hordern reports no final decision has been made on replacement for Brian deese and it's not likely to be announced before the president's State of the Union address anyway. That's scheduled for the night of February 7th. The elementary school teacher in Virginia, who was shot by a 6 year old student in her class earlier this month, is suing the school district. Abby's Werner's lawyer Diana scanno says administrators at richneck elementary school in Newport News Virginia were repeatedly warned the boy had a gun and was threatening other students, but to scan who says the administration couldn't be bothered. Thank God Abby is alive. But had the school administrators acted in the interest of their teachers and their students, Abby would not have sustained a gunshot
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lyle brainard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Savannah from London from New York this morning in Washington, our Jennifer Jacobs and amery Horton got confirming FrontRunner status in top contender status of the vice chairman of the Federal Reserve Laos brainerd to be considered to advise the president in the position now held by Brian deese. This will be most most political leaving a senior and Lisa I would just say different vice chairman post at the fed Lyle brainard as vice chairman is different than Richard clarita is vice chairman. Was number two at the Federal Reserve. She is a number two, and she's been pushing back on the margins against this feeling that the fed has to go much further and is talking about the balance of risks to the downside in terms of economic pain. So what does that do if she leaves and who replaces her? And then there's also the questions of some of the political interference that some people are going to raise. It becomes a new debate, but she's going if she was to go back and The Washington Post was suggesting that the secretary of commerce Gina remained or maybe has said she doesn't want to do that that's speculation at this time, but Jacob's and harder in her reporting here on someone who is comfortable with policy, working with Bill Clinton on the same council is a very young academic out of wesleyan. I believe she was teaching at MIT at the time. I don't recall that. But I would really suggest that policy is where she's more comfortable than worrying about dynamic stochastic general equilibrium theory. Whatever you want to say about her, she is a very respected academic mind and policy mind. So people might get a lot of support behind her, even though perhaps they're going to be questions around the fed leadership and who are places her and what that means for the Federal Reserve. Brainer is FrontRunner to run the Biden economic council on the data front of deterioration through the morning Microsoft leading that deterioration after up nicely, negative 33 on SPX with Microsoft visiting two 36, even two 35 yields come in, John Farrell making note of that from London. There's just simply no question about that. It is earning season quickly, Lisa on individual names. Yeah, well, I just want to tell you this that Boeing just crossed. And their fourth quarter adjusted free cash flow is $3.13 billion versus an estimate of 2.89 billion. So just to give you a sense, we are getting a Motley picture. I keep going back to this with a lot of companies talking about pretty good earnings, at least so far, although with a bit of a softer picture ahead, Microsoft key among those yesterday saying that they are expecting a bit of a deceleration in the growth in the Azure platform. Those shares lower by 2.4%. Gaining back from some of the lows earlier this morning, Tesla shares down 1.1% ahead of earnings later today. A lot of people looking not only about Tesla's sales, why they've been discounting their vehicles, but also will Elon Musk talk about the next phase in the Twitter saga when he steps down who's going to replace him in AT&T came out this to me is oddly interesting because AT&T actually gave a disappointing forecast going forward and this follows on what we heard from Verizon yesterday, and yet the shares are up 2.3%, which raises this question of how much bad news has already been baked in. How much pessimism has already been established in the levels of certain names? Well, we'll have to see on that. I would say the shock to me as a shock is to anybody worldwide who follows aviation, like John farrow, is to see that the headline from the Boeing company is out of Arlington, Virginia, that will be a shock across all of my youth in the middle age from Seattle to Chicago to outside Washington. That describes a travel experience of John farrow over the last number of weeks. He joins us now with a really important interview conversation with Jane foley. Thank you, tika I have to say the travel has been pretty smooth over the last week or so. Maybe I've been lucky. Let's frame the last 12 months. This is important. We've been wrestling worldwide with inflation and central banks have made a move. The ECB has gone to two 50. The Bank of England has gone to three 50. The Federal Reserve has gone to four 50. The bank of Japan, the BOJ has done absolutely nothing. Is that going to change this year? Jane Farley of rabbit bank, alongside us in the beating heart of foreign exchange, James fantastic catch up with you. Let's start there. Sub zero at the BOJ. Is that going to change this year? You know, it might, but it might not. And I think that's a really crucial crucial point here because if we saw the meeting in January, we saw speculators all egging on for a change in New York have control. And what do they get? Nothing. And I think this is the risk, the market's now assuming that we're going to get there. Replacement for Corona in April, of course, as he steps back. And there is something that we're going to get maybe a significant change in policy. We might get a change in policy, but it may not be significant. And that's the point we might get at another two week kit to your curve control. We may get an interest rate. We may not, because if you look at the time frame for the bank of Japan, they're probably not going to be hiking interest rates next year when, for instance, the fed could be easy in other central banks. So you know you've got a limited time frame, but then you look at the fundamentals. At
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lyle brainard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"To speak with you this morning. Amanda, thanks for being here. Especially on the morning where we're seeing pretty nice lift in the futures after yesterday's decline. Do you buy into this rally? Well, it's nice to be with you. Thanks for having me. I would love to buy into it. But I think it's a little bit of false hope because I think the market is sort of blindly hanging its hat on last week's CPI report and that the fed is ultimately going to use that data point as the point to pivot. And I think it's a little bit too soon to claim victory in the war on inflation. Yeah, and it's going to set us up for the producer price index that we're going to get later this morning. I know that there's some division between consumer and producer prices in terms of how they feed into the inflation picture, but do you think what we get from the PPI today could be a similar catalyst to that huge rally we saw last week. Well, the expectation is not certainly to see as much progress as what the CPI report showed is very modest in terms of the improvement about a tenth of a percentage point on both headline and core. So we need to see some forward progress. We need to get more data behind us that suggests that the fed is starting to gain some ground against the inflation backdrop. But I don't think that the PPI report is going to be the shot in the arm for the market that CPI was last week. I mean, I think it's important to note that core PPI is already lower than core CPI, but in the case of both, there's still just much too high to call off the fed at this juncture. So you don't think that the CPI that we got last week is going to be enough for the fed to think about at least slowing down rate hikes. I mean, we got those comments yesterday from fed vice chair, Lyle brainard that it may be appropriate to start thinking about slowing rate hikes soon. Well, I'm hoping and praying and wishing at the top of my Christmas wish list is actually a fed pause. It's not even really a pivot. I mean, my definition of a pivot is not slowing the pace of rate hike. But market certainly expecting to slow things down here, 50 basis points in December and other 50 in February and then 25 and I think it's march. And so that is definitely an improvement relative to these big outside 75 basis point back to back rate heights. And so that is definitely going to be a bit of a calming effect for markets. But the reality is one data point or one fed meeting versus another is not really what matters ultimately for the market. It's where the end state for monetary policy plans. And we're heading into very, very restrictive territory for 2023. Yeah, I was going to say that would be the ultimate Christmas surprise if we got a positive month. What is your path? I think you laid out your path for fed hikes. What's it going to mean for the trajectory for stocks as we head into 2023 thinking about at least a little bit of a decline in the punch bowl? Well, I certainly think that there's some tougher days ahead of us. And that feels like a strong statement given how challenging 2022 was. But the I think based on historical tightening cycles, the fed never raised rates to 4.6%. That's the terminal rate based on the current dot plot and not tip us into recession. And it's based on the last fed meeting there are hinting at moving that terminal rate even higher. And so I think it starting to become maybe not a 100% probability, but pretty darn close to a foregone conclusion that if they go all that way from a monetary policy perspective that it's going to tip us into recession and I think what sort of lagging behind that story is the earnings recession. It's really the last quarter, so we're starting to talk about the concept of an earnings recession coming to fruition. So I think there is more downside to the market. If we start to see the bottom meaningfully fallout of earnings, we're not recessionary valuation levels. So I think there could easily be another ten to 15% downside. At both of those recessionary environments come to fruition in 23. We've got about 30 seconds left here Amanda. I wonder if I could get your take on the meltdown we're seeing in the crypto market with the FTX bankruptcy and whether there's any potential contagion risk across the market from that. Well, I'd love to plead the 5th on that one. Okay. We've gotten a lot of questions from clients about what's going on there. I mean, I think we need to be very close to that story and pay close attention to it given what looks like a lot of fraudulent potential activity. I don't think that there's necessarily a contagion or spillover type of effect. It's still early days. I think we're learning more day by day, but for now we think it's largely contained. It does definitely dampen the outlook for crypto in general. This is a big exchange. And so what is the next shoe to drop or is there a next shoe to drop? I think it really rattles the confidence of krypto investors. Really appreciate your perspective, Amanda, thanks again for coming on with us early. Amanda agati with us this morning, chief investment officer at PNC. Karen. Nathan, it is 5 54 on Wall Street, time for the Bloomberg law report brought to you by American arbitration association. And Sam
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lyle brainard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"In Washington to discuss her outlook for the economy, the fed's rate hike path, and the crypto market crash. Vice chair brainard spoke with Bloomberg's Washington bureau chief Peggy Collins, here's part of that conversation now. So so much of what we wrote about here at Bloomberg during the pandemic and elsewhere I know other journalists too was about people getting back into the labor market and getting jobs. Bloomberg economics actually is forecasting a 100% chance of a recession in the next 12 months. What is your forecast for where we end up in terms of unemployment by the end of next year? Yeah, so I think it's very difficult to give firm projections. Because this is a very unusual labor market. So the pandemic led to a lot of departures from in person services in particular. And if you look at hiring data, you can still see pretty healthy hiring in some of those in person services where some businesses are still trying to catch up to levels of employment that may be appropriate for the kind of the run rate that they're seeing. But it is the case that as rates move further into restrictive territory. And financial conditions remain tight. That does exert some restraint on demand. To bring demand into better alignment with supply. And so you will see some reallocation. Now vacancies are unusually high relative to unemployment. And that does suggest for the reasons that we were just talking about this sort of catch up hiring. There are some chance that we'll see more of a diminution in those vacancies rather than putting as much emphasis on layoffs. But it's likely there'll be a combination of both. Do you think the downshift is coming? Yeah, so I think it will probably be appropriate soon. To move to a slower pace of increases. But I think what's really important to emphasize, we've done a lot, but we have additional work to do both on raising rates and sustaining restraint to bring inflation down to 2% over time. So we have raised rates very rapidly by nearly four percentage points over about 9 months and we've been reducing the balance sheet and you can see that in financial conditions. You can see it in inflation expectations, which are quite well anchored. You can see it in interest rate sensitive sectors. But as we said last meeting, they're likely to be lags. And it's going to take some time for that cumulative tightening to flow through. And so it makes sense to move to a more deliberate and a more data dependent pace as we continue to make sure that there's restraint that will bring inflation down over time. So I want to turn to another big story that we've been covering, which is the implosion of another firm in the crypto market. FTX and Sam bankman freed's empire there. And in a speech in July, you were looking at the crypto market and at that time thought that there weren't signs that there were so much interconnectivity yet between crypto firms and the broader financial market to imply a systemic risk. How has your view changed given what's happened in the past week? Yeah, so I don't think my view has fundamentally changed. First of all, it is really concerning to see that retail investors are really getting hurt by these losses. And it is also the case. That despite a lot of hype, you heard a lot about how decentralized these markets are and how innovative and different. It turns out they're highly concentrated. Highly interconnected. And you're just seeing a domino effect, failures from one platform or one firm spilling over elsewhere. And it reinforces, I think. This need to make sure that crypto finance because it is no different than traditional finance in the risks that it exposes investors to needs to be under the regulatory perimeter. There need to be strong regulatory guardrails that assure that like risks are subject to like disclosures and like regulatory outcomes. And that was Federal Reserve vice chair Lyle brainard speaking with Bloomberg's Peggy Collins in Washington. You can catch the full interview online at Bloomberg dot com or any time on the Bloomberg terminal. S&P futures right now are up 29 points down futures up a 157. NASDAQ futures are higher by a 131 points to ten year treasury is up 1130 seconds, the yield 3.81% and the yield on the two year right now. 4.35%. Just had the latest from the G 20 summit and a big blow to another election denier in the midterms. It's coming up on Bloomberg daybreak. This is a Bloomberg money minute, Wall Street is coming off a losing session, the major averages had losses ranging from around two thirds of a percent to just over 1% Monday, a 211 point drop for the Dow. The government's latest reading on wholesale inflation will be out this morning, economists expect to hear that the producer price index rose four tenths of a percent last month. There's a chance we could see a drop in the price of coffee, the weather in key coffee growing nations has turned more favorable. The Wall Street Journal says coffee prices fell by more than 20% on the commodity markets over the past month. Jobs and Apple stores have lost some of their previous luster. According to many store workers who have talked to Bloomberg businessweek, Apple store workers
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lyle brainard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"The route in chip stocks continues around the world. And G 7 leaders weigh their response to Russia's missile barrage on Ukraine. The woman has been arrested in the fatal attack on a man on a Bronx bus plus a feisty debate between the two Senate candidates in Ohio. I'm Michael Barr more ahead. I'm John stash Harry sports that she's rallied to top the Raiders the Yankees begin their playoff series with Cleveland and its opening night for the rangers. That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg daybreak. On Bloomberg 11 three O New York, Bloomberg 99 one Washington D.C., Bloomberg one O 6 one Boston, Bloomberg 9 60 San Francisco, Syria's exam one 19 and around the world on Bloomberg radio dot com and via the Bloomberg business app. Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager. And I'm Karen Moscow and U.S. stock index futures are lower this morning. We are coming up to 6 O one on Wall Street and we check the markets every 15 minutes throughout the trading day, on Bloomberg. Right now S&P futures are down 36 points down futures down 254 and NASDAQ futures down 107 and the ten year treasury is down 1830 seconds. Yield 3.95% in the yield on the two year 4.32% Nathan. Karen this morning's drop in futures follows four straight losing sessions on Wall Street this morning yields on two year treasuries are trading at their highest level since 2007, ten year yields are flirting with 4% and the 30 year surged to its highest since 2014. Jordan Khan is chief investment officer at ACM funds. A lot of these areas of the market and the fixed income market are really getting oversold here that have come down quite a bit yields are much higher than we've seen in years. And so I think as soon as the market gets a sense that inflation is peaking and ten year you'll start to stabilize more. I think there could be a lot of good buying opportunities, but for us, we're not going to put the cart before the horse. Jordan Khan at ACM fund says the mood remains fragile ahead of Thursday's inflation data. Well, as for equity, Nathan, perhaps the hardest hit sector in the recent sell off has been chip stocks. In fact, more than $240 billion in market value has been wiped out since The White House imposed curves on China's access to semiconductor technology. We get more from Bloomberg's Charlie pellet. The industry sold off globally after fresh U.S. curbs on China's access to American technology, added to a disappointing start to the earnings season, stoking concern that the industry's downturn is far from over. The Philadelphia stock exchange semiconductor index fell three and a half percent, closing at its lowest level since November of 2020. The index has dropped nearly 10% over the past three trading days and is now down more than 40% so far this year. In New York, Charlie palette Bloomberg debris. All right, Charlie, thank you and the chips selloff continued overnight, leading stocks lower in Asia. Let's get that recap from Bloomberg's Juliet Sally in Singapore. Good morning, Juliet. Good morning, Nathan and Karen, some of the biggest losses were in chip related equities in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan where traders returned from holidays to join the global sell off in semiconductor shares. Taiwan's Tai X traded at November 2020 lows, while TSMC shares fell as much as 8 and a half percent, the most on record to July 2020 lows, the yen traded within sight of the original level that spurred Japanese authorities to defend the currency in September, and the one slid as wary mounts at Beijing will uphold its COVID zero policy well after the Chinese Communist Party Congress this month. In Singapore, Juliet sali, Bloomberg daybreak. All right, Juliet, thanks, Roland. You're up this morning, the Bank of England has been forced to expand its emergency measures. That's in response to chaos in the bond market and we go to London and get the latest from Bloomberg's UN pots good morning Ewan. Good morning Karen Nathan. It's the second time this week the UK Central Bank has moved to calm the bond market. This morning, the Bank of England expanded the scope of its guilt purchases to include inflation linked debt in an effort to avert what it called a fire sale. The intervention comes after a severe sell off on Monday that saw UK inflation in yields surging by the most on record in London immune pots Bloomberg daybreak. All right, you and thank you. The risk of a global recession is now rising thanks to higher rates. That's according to both the head of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank president David malpass. The risk in the real danger of a world recession next year. The advanced economies are slowing in Europe, the debt levels for the developing countries are getting more and more burdensome. The rise in interest rates puts added weight on it. And inflation is still a major problem for everyone, but especially for the poor. Those comments from World Bank president David malpass are being echoed by JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon. He says serious headwinds are likely to push the U.S. and global economies into recession by the middle of next year. Meantime, Nathan the fed keeps banging the drum for higher rates still vice chair Lyle brainard lays out a case for caution as the Central Bank works to curb inflation. In light of elevated global, economic and financial uncertainty moving forward deliberately and in a data dependent manner will enable us to learn how economic activity, employment, and inflation are adjusting to the cumulative tightening in order to inform our assessment of the path of the policy rate. Fed vice share Lyle brainard made the comments yesterday at a meeting at the national association for business economics in Chicago. Well, despite that caution, Karen, it's too early for a fed policy pivot that's according to strategic Goldman Sachs, who say the economic outlook is not bad enough yet and rates markets remain too volatile. Economists predict the fed is on track to deliver its fourth straight 75 basis point hike at next month's meeting. No, Nathan, let's go to the latest on the war in Ukraine. Russia has launched even more strikes in the country just a day after the most intense barrages since the early days of the invasion. President Biden will speak with group of
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lyle brainard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"5 30 on Wall Street, good morning. I'm Nathan Hager. And I'm Karen Moscow, and we're just about four hours away from the open of U.S. trading, let's get you up to date on the news you need to know what this shower, while U.S. futures are lower yet again after four straight and losing Sessions, earnings and inflation data will be key this week. Some analysts expect a significant earnings drop, but that may not come to pass if inflation eases. That's according to Bloomberg intelligence chief equity strategist Gina Martin Adams. The reality of the earnings stream is an inflation has been a big pain point for earnings revenues have been growing, but margins have been contracting amid the rising input cost pressure even though companies have been able to pass on some price increases. So we might be somewhat surprised by the degree to which a drop in inflation can actually soothe some of those margin pressures. Gina Martin Adams, if Bloomberg intelligence says she expects quote earnings confusion to continue into the next quarter. Chip stocks have been hit particularly hard in this recent sell off care and more than $240 billion in global market value has been wiped away after The White House imposed curbs on China's access to semiconductor technology. Meantime, Nathan, warnings of a global downturn are growing louder, the heads of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank warn a rising risk of a global recession and JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon is joining in says saying serious headwinds could push the U.S. and global economies into recession by the middle of next year. The fed still raising rates, Karen, but vice chair Lyle brainard is echoing some of diamond's concerns noting global tightening could spill back into the U.S.. We're starting to see the effect on some sectors, but it's going to take some time for that cumulative tightening to transmit throughout the economy. And for inflation to come down. Fed vice chair law brainer made those comments yesterday at a meeting of the national association for business economics in Chicago. Let me turn now to the war in Ukraine, Nathan where Russia is ramping up attacks and now G 7 leaders are holding an emergency meeting to discuss continued support to Ukraine. Bloomberg's at Baxter has the story. The White House in a statement says the other aim will be to hold Russian president Vladimir Putin accountable for Russia's aggression. Ukraine's president volodymyr zelensky will participate at the top of the meeting, the group was already openly condemned the Russian missile attacks, but will discuss whether more military support will be forthcoming, as well as any potential economic sanctions on Vladimir Putin and Russia. In San Francisco, Ahmed Baxter Bloomberg daybreak. All right, Ed, thank you and futures this morning are lower S&P futures down 32 points. You down features down 231 and NASDAQ futures down 95 and the ten year treasury down 1630 seconds 3.94%. Straight ahead, your latest local headlines plus a check of sports. This is Bloomberg. Thanks Karen 5 33 on Wall Street 53° in Central Park westbound four 40s closed near the outerbridge crossing on Staten Island and Michael Barr's got more on what's going on in New York at around the world, Michael. Thank you very much, Nathan, with less than a month to go until the midterm elections, democratic representative Tim Ryan squared off with Trump backed Republican candidate JD Vance in a feisty Senate debate last night. Ryan speaking on next our media about Vance. Donald Trump said to JD Vance, all you do is kiss my to get my support. Vance responded. You're going to take lectures on dignity and self respect from a guy caught on video kissing up to Chuck Schumer. Both candidates in Ohio are polling close in a race that could determine which party controls the U.S. Senate. A woman was arrested yesterday and Sunday's fatal stabbing of a man during an argument aboard an MTA bus in The Bronx. Detectives say 42 year old ebony Jackson was arrested in connection to the stabbing. Police say Jackson's apparent boyfriend allegedly stabbed Lamont Barkley, who was 55. It is the 8th person to be killed in the transit system this year, and the third within ten days. The man is still on the loose. At least 14 airports around the U.S., including Laguardia, reported their internal communications and advertising systems were hit by hackers believed to be Russian based. The group known as killed net claim responsibility for the attack, John holt quist head of intelligence analysis at cybersecurity firm mandiant says it was a denial of service attack on the airport websites. It's essentially superficial. It doesn't necessarily mean that any backend resources are being affected or data has been lost or anything that operations have been affected in any way. John, hold quiz with Mandy and told ABC no flights were affected. James Brennan, the San Antonio officer that shot an unarmed teenager who was eating inside of his car in a McDonald's parking lot has been fired. Global news, 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than a 120 countries. Michael Barr and this is Bloomberg, Nathan. All right, Michael, thanks
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lyle brainard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"And I'm Karen Moscow and U.S. stock index futures are lower this morning we're coming up to 5 O one on Wall Street and we check the markets every 15 minutes throughout the trading day on Bloomberg S&P futures down 34 points. Now futures down 248 and NASDAQ futures down in 98, ten year treasury down 1530 seconds yo 3.94% and the yield on the two year 4.32% and I'm excrete oil is down 2.7% Nathan. Karen today's drop in futures follows four straight losing sessions on Wall Street. This morning yields on two year treasuries are trading at the highest level since 2007 and ten year yields are flirting with 4%, 30 years search to their highest since 2014. Jordan Kahn is chief investment officer at ACM funds. A lot of these areas of the market and the fixed income market are really getting oversold here that have come down quite a bit yields are much higher than we've seen in years. And so I think as soon as the market gets a sense that inflation is peaking and tenure, you will start to stabilize more. I think there could be a lot of good buying opportunities, but for us, we're not going to put the cart before the horse. Jordan Conan ACM fund says the mood remains fragile. I had a Thursday's inflation data. Well, as for equities, Nathan, perhaps the hardest sector hit in the recent sell off has been chip stocks. In fact, more than $240 billion in market value has been wiped out since The White House imposed curbs on China's access to semiconductor technology. We get more from Bloomberg's Charlie pellet. The industry sold off globally after fresh U.S. curbs on China's access to American technology, added to a disappointing start to the earnings season, stoking concern that the industry's downturn is far from over. The Philadelphia stock exchange semiconductor index fell three and a half percent, closing at its lowest level since November of 2020. The index has dropped nearly 10% over the past three trading days and is now down more than 40% so far this year. In New York, Charlie pellet Bloomberg debris. All right, Charlie, thank you. And the chips sell off continued overnight, leading stocks lower in Asia. Let's get more on that from Bloomberg's Juliet Sally in Singapore good morning, Juliet. Good morning, Nathan and Karen, some of the biggest losses were in chip related equities in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, where traders returned from holidays to join the global sell off in semiconductor shares. Taiwan's Tai X traded at November 2020 lows, while TSMC shares fell as much as 8 and a half percent, the most on record to July 2020 lows, the yen traded within sight of the original level that spurred Japanese authorities to defend the currency in September, and the one slid as wary mounts at Beijing will uphold its COVID zero policy well after the Chinese Communist Party Congress this month. In Singapore, Juliet sali, Bloomberg daybreak. Juliet, thank you, Ellen. You're up this morning the Bank of England has been forced to expand its emergency measures as in response to chaos in the bond market and let's go live to London and get the latest from Bloomberg's UN pause. Good morning Ewan. Good morning, Karen, Nathan. It's the second time this week the UK's Central Bank has moved to calm the bond market. This morning, the Bank of England expanded the scope of its guilt purchases to include inflation linked debt in an effort to avert what it called a fire sale. The intervention comes after a severe sell off on Monday that saw UK inflation in yields surging by the most on record in London, a Muhammad Bloomberg daybreak. Are you and thanks. The risk of a global recession is now rising thanks to higher rates that's according to the head of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank president David malpass. The risk in the real danger of a world recession next year. The advanced economies are slowing in Europe, the debt levels for the developing countries are getting more and more burdensome. The rise in interest rates puts added weight on it. And inflation is still a major problem for everyone, but especially for the poor. Those comments from World Bank president David malpass are being echoed by JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon. He says, serious headwinds are likely to push the U.S. and global economies into recession by the middle of next year. Meantime, Nathan the fed keeps banging the drum for higher rates still vice chair Lyle brainard lays out a case for caution as the Central Bank works to curb inflation. In light of elevated global, economic and financial uncertainty moving forward deliberately and in a data dependent manner will enable us to learn how economic activity, employment, and inflation are adjusting to the cumulative tightening in order to inform our assessment of the path of the policy rate. Brainard made the comments yesterday at a meeting at the national association for business economics in Chicago. When despite some caution, Karen, it's too early for a fed policy pivot. That's according to strategist at Goldman Sachs, who say the economic outlook is not bad enough yet and rates markets remain too volatile. Economists predict the fed is on track to deliver its fourth straight, 75 basis point hike at next month's meeting. Now let's get the latest on the war in Ukraine, Nathan, Russia, has launched even more strikes in the country just a day after the most intense barrages since the early days of the invasion. President Biden will speak with a group of 7 leaders this morning, he's pledging to impose more costs on the Kremlin and to keep providing support to Kyiv. John herps is a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine and now senior director of the Atlantic council's Eurasia center. Ukraine's east. His objective today is to take political control of Ukraine. As objective tomorrow, once he has Ukraine in his pocket, is to go after other states, including our NATO allies. So he is coming for our NATO allies, and we are bound to defend with American troops. Former ambassador to Ukraine John herps spoke with our Washington correspondent Joe Matthew on Bloomberg sound on, catch the program weekdays
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lyle brainard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"On Bloomberg radio and television And another fed news Nathan the Senate has officially confirmed Lyle brainard as vice chair of the Central Bank the vote was 52 to 43 with most Republicans opposing brainard because of her views on regulation S&P futures are up 42 points This morning Dow futures have 382 and NASDAQ futures up a 133 straight ahead related local headlines plus a check of sports and this is Bloomberg Thanks Karen 6 O 7 on Wall Street 48° in Central Park still dealing with the closure on the east bend northern state near exit 40 a truck went into an overpass overnight We'll get the details on that coming up in traffic first Michael Barr with more on what's going on in New York and around the world Michael Thank you very much Nathan MTA chairman and CEO Jenna lieber says the chronic problem of fair evasion in subways has prompted a new initiative in New York Lieber speaking before the association for a better New York's power breakfast said that surging fare evasion threatens our bottom line and also threatens our social norms Lieber also says it causes increased crime He says many criminals enter the subway by not paying fares New York City mayor Eric Adams committed to releasing his tax returns and blamed his widely reported refusal to do so on as he put it the arrogance of a reporter who asked the question earlier this month Meanwhile mayor Adams proposed a nearly $100 billion budget pitching a pandemic recovery with less of the COVID stimulus funds that patted previous spending plans We have always known that our city would never be defined by the tragedy the spirit of New York City will always prevail Mayor Adams said he will increase spending for the Department of Corrections and the New York police department House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy will be asked to reconsider his refusal to testify to the congressional committee investigating the January 6th riot at the U.S. capitol That renewal comes nearly a week after a leaked audio revealed that McCarthy considered urging then president Donald Trump to resign after the riot McCarthy can be heard telling his Republican colleagues to stop attacking other House members by name The country is too crazy I do not want to look back and think we caused something or we missed something and someone got hurt I don't want to play politics with any of that The audio tapes released by The New York Times and were recorded in the days after the attack on the capitol SpaceX crew forward launched from the Florida Kennedy Space Center this morning.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lyle brainard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"7 30 Wednesday morning in Hong Kong 9 30 here in Sydney I'm Paul Allen And I'm Doug prisoner at the Bloomberg interactive broker studio in New York We had weakness in the equity market today as the result of a big move up across the U.S. yield curve heavens to Betsy will get trading underway at the top of the hour in Tokyo Sydney and in Seoul Brian Curtis will be by momentarily with a look at the latest in price action right now a few of the sours top business stories Governor Lyle brainard called the task of reducing inflation pressures paramount She said the fed will raise interest rates steadily while shrinking its balance sheet rapidly Brain had said this could happen as soon as next month Later in the day Kansas City fed president Esther George tells us that current economic conditions support the move When you look today at where the balance sheet is and the conditions in which we'll be doing that I think it easily argues for going faster and moving along at a quicker pace than we did before We have a ways to go to get this accommodation out of the economy George also said a half point hike will be on the table at the feds may meeting Tomorrow we get minutes of the last fed meeting and more clues on the path of tightening General Motors and Honda will jointly develop affordable electric vehicles in major global markets Now the automakers were saying today they plan to create new architecture to be used primarily for small crossover SUVs and prices will start just below $30,000 by joining forces GM and Honda believe they can more quickly reduce battery costs The companies are also aiming to share development cost Their new vehicles are expected to be available in the North American market in 2027 The U.S. is seeking to realign its commercial ties with China rather than seek a divorce and that's according to trade chief Catherine tye Here is tie in an exclusive interview with Bloomberg The lack of visibility lack of accountability and also lack of diversity in those supply chains are all issues that we are trying to address through realignment And so I would focus really on the kinds of changes that we're trying to bring which are really not about stopping trade or trade divorce They're really about bringing reform and more strategic approach to trade Clients remarks follow a congressional hearing last week where she told lawmakers it's time to forget about changing China's behavior Instead the U.S. should focus on rebuilding manufacturing and investing at home to counter the Asian country 33 past the hour let's cross to Los Angeles Brian Curtis is there looking at market action So that was a pretty dramatic move up across the curve today here in the U.S. wouldn't you say Yeah it was stocks and bonds both down and likely to see some selling pressure here in Asia We know that sovereign debt in Australia and New Zealand both slid in the wake of the sell off in U.S. bonds And a lot of that came from fed governor lael brainard's comments which you guys have highlighted that the Central Bank may start reducing its balance sheet rapidly and if that happens particularly at the same time that they're increasing interest rates you know pretty sharply like 50 basis points in that meeting coming up in early May Then it could have a pretty dramatic effect on markets I asked a guest earlier this morning if it might put the financial system into shock and he said well you know it does have a big impact and we're also heard the same from Christopher wood over at Jeffries saying that most global stock markets are correlated with Wall Street and the biggest single issue is the fed's monetary tightening cycle The offshore Chinese yuan retreated for a third consecutive day here at the moment 6 38 or rather 6 37 88 against the U.S. dollar economists have cut their 2022 growth estimates amid widening lockdowns of particularly with that lockdown in Shanghai And the U.S. dollar rose to its highest point since May of 2020 the Bloomberg dollar spot index which we like to use on this program rather than the dollar index because it's got a broader basket there It's up at 1200 and fairly steady here this morning And that means Dali yen is fairly steady but the end has been very weak It's at one 23 61 up against the greenback and the Australian dollar is 75.85 U.S. cents So we did get a steepening of the yield curve and a slope that turned positive The yield on the ten year jumped 15 basis points to 2.54% the two year is now at two 51 so three basis points lower And WTI crude slipping right now $100 94 cents a barrel 35 minutes past the hour Paul Allen to you All right thanks very much Brian It is now time for a check of global news Let's get to head Baxter.