17 Burst results for "Loretta Mester"
Bloomberg Radio New York
"loretta mester" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Now these minutes from the FOMC from their last meeting, it's wrapped up on February 1st, the central bankers announced a pretty modest 25 basis point hike in benchmark rates. The key, of course, is what policymakers see looking ahead. So what are we hoping to see this time? Well, ordinarily, you'd say you don't get that much from the minutes because it's three weeks old and we've had a lot of data since then, and we have had a lot of data that may have changed their views, and this week we got some of those views start to starting to change in public with Cleveland fed's Loretta mester, for example, saying that she thought that they should have done 50 basis points at that February 1st meeting. That would have been something we were looking for in the minutes. Well, let's hear a sound from Loretta mester right now. Why she says the case was made for a much bigger basis point hike. So at this juncture, the incoming data have not changed my view that we will need to bring the fed funds rate above 5%. And hold it there for some time to be sufficiently restricted to ensure that inflation is on a sustainable path back to 2%. Indeed, at our meeting two weeks ago, setting aside what financial market participants participants expected us to do, I saw a compelling economic case. For a 50 basis point increase, which would have brought the top of the target range to 5%. All right, Loretta mester there, and let's go back. Some of the things that you just talked about, these data points that really may have been exactly what she was referring to about better than forecast jobs report for January, better than forecast, Q four GDP, better than forecast retail sales for the same month. And how that may have influenced the fed in the last three weeks. It's going to be interesting to see how it might have influenced the fed because we've seen inflation come down a lot in November and December and then rebound in January and both the CPI and the PPI. And maybe it's telling us what the fed has been trying to tell us the inflation Genie is still not back in the model. It's going to take a while to bring that down and they need to do more for longer, raise rates higher for longer, which is something they've been saying for a long time. The real dichotomy seems to be on the growth side where many of these fed officials, including master, including Tom barkin earlier, saying that we think there's going to be a recession or darn close to it. Loretta mester said that business contacts in her district are preparing for one, and yet as you mentioned, the retail sales numbers and other signs of growth have come in fairly strong, so when does that happen? Right, and you spoke to Richmond fed president Barton just this past week and got some great insight from him. So let's listen to what he told you about fed rate hikes
Bloomberg Radio New York
"loretta mester" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Meeting coming out on Wednesday. Joining me to talk about it, Bloomberg's global economic and policy editor Michael McKay, Michael, thanks for joining us. Happy to be here Now these minutes from the FOMC from their last meeting, it's wrapped up on February 1st, the central bankers announced a pretty modest 25 basis point hike in benchmark rates. The key, of course, is what policymakers see looking ahead. So what are we hoping to see this time? Well, ordinarily, you'd say you don't get that much from the minutes because it's three weeks old and we've had a lot of data since then, and we have had a lot of data that may have changed their views, and this week we got some of those views start to starting to change in public with Cleveland fed's Loretta mester, for example, saying that she thought that they should have done 50 basis points at that February 1st meeting. That would have been something we were looking for in the minutes. Well, let's hear a sound from Loretta mester right now. On why she says the case was made for a much bigger basis point hike. So at this juncture, the incoming data have not changed my view that we will need to bring the fed funds rate above 5%. And hold it there for some time to be sufficiently restricted to ensure that inflation is on a sustainable path back to 2%. Indeed, at our meeting two weeks ago, setting aside what financial market participants participants expected us to do, I saw a compelling economic case. For a 50 basis point increase, which would have brought the top of the target range to pi percent. All right, Loretta mester there, and now let's go back. Some of the things that you just talked about, these data points that really may have been exactly what she was referring to about better than forecast jobs report for January, better than forecast, Q four GDP, better than forecast retail sales for the same month. And how that may have influenced the fed in the last three weeks. It's going to be interesting to see how it might have influenced the fed because we've seen inflation come down a lot in November and December and then rebound in January and both the CPI and the PPI. And maybe it's telling us what the fed has been trying to tell us so that the inflation Genie is still not back in the bottle. It's going to take a while to bring that down and they need to do more for longer, raise rates higher for longer, which is something they've been saying for a long time. The real dichotomy seems to be on the growth side where many of these fed officials, including master, including Tom bark and earlier saying that we think there's going to be a recession or darn close to it. Loretta mester said that business contacts in her district are preparing for one, and yet as you mentioned, the retail sales numbers and other signs of growth have come in fairly strong, so when does that happen? Right, and you spoke to Richmond fed president Barton just this past week and got some great insight from him. Let's listen to what he told you about fed rate hikes
Bloomberg Radio New York
"loretta mester" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"To be here. Now these minutes from the FOMC from their last meeting, it wrapped up on February 1st, the central bankers announced a pretty modest 25 basis point hike in benchmark rates. The key of course is what policymakers see looking ahead. So what are we hoping to see this time? Well, ordinarily, you'd say you don't get that much from the minutes because it's three weeks old and we've had a lot of data since then. And we have had a lot of data that may have changed their views, and this week we got some of those views start to starting to change in public with Cleveland fed's Loretta mester, for example, saying that she thought that they should have done 50 basis points at that February 1st meeting. That would have been something we were looking for in the minutes. Well, let's hear a sound from Loretta mester right now. On why she says the case was made for a much bigger basis point hike. So at this juncture, the incoming data have not changed my view that we will need to bring the fed funds rate above 5%. And hold it there for some time to be sufficiently restricted to ensure that inflation is on a sustainable path back to 2%. Indeed, at our meeting two weeks ago, setting aside what financial market participants participants expected us to do, I saw a compelling economic case for a 50 basis point increase, which would have brought the top of the target range to 5%. All right, Loretta mester there, and now let's go back. Some of the things that you just talked about, these data points that really may have been exactly what she was referring to about better than forecast jobs report for January, better than forecast Q four GDP. Better than forecast retail sales for the same month. And how that may have influenced the fed in the last three weeks. It's going to be interesting to see how it might have influenced the fed because we've seen inflation come down a lot in November and December and then rebound in January and both the CPI and the PPI. And maybe it's telling us what the fed has been trying to tell us, the inflation Genie is still not back in the bottle. It's going to take a while to bring that down. And they need to do more for longer, raise rates higher for longer, which is something they've been saying for a long time. The real dichotomy seems to be on the growth side where many of these fed officials, including master, including Tom barkin earlier, saying that we think there's going to be a recession or darn close to it. Loretta mester said that business contacts in her district are preparing for one, and yet as you mentioned, the retail sales numbers and other signs of growth have come in fairly strong, so when does that happen? Right, and you spoke to Richmond fed president barkin just this past week and got some great insight from him. Let's listen to what he told you about fed rate hikes. Well, I tried not to get too wound up in any particular data read, particularly a January data read, large seasonality factors, all that sort of stuff. But I do think
Bloomberg Radio New York
"loretta mester" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Positivity on the Chinese mainland, if you're joining from the region this morning, good morning, I'm Doug prisoner at the Bloomberg interactive broker studio in New York. And I'm Bonnie quin right alongside him, and, as you say, it's only a half hour into the trading session, but boy have we had a raft of news out of China already from regulation to renaissance Doug, let us know how things are shaping up for the trading day. Let's get to Brian. Yeah, let's take a closer look, as Doug mentioned, we are seeing some very modest gains in the CSI 300 here up about a tenth of a percent, a little bit stronger for the Shanghai composite up about three tenths of a percent. For the most part, the rest of the region has been lower this morning. Although Singapore has rally, the straights times index up a little more than a half of 1%. But some of the concerns were raised by the sharply edged of PPI report in the United States, produced the prices rebounding in January by the most that we've seen since June. And we had new home construction sliding for a 5th month in January and also had weekly jobless claims falling to 194,000 below expectations of 200,000. It brought out a couple of fed officials starting to talk about 50 basis point rate hikes at perhaps the next meeting. We'll get you details on that coming up. But that did rattle the market to a certain degree. We had yield shooting up a little bit and at the moment in Tokyo, the ten year yields at 3.89% and the two year is at four 67, WTI $78 right on the button. So we're definitely seeing some selling in some of the markets like in Tokyo and Sydney, but it's in the range of about a half a percent lower. Douglas back to you. All right, Brian, we heard today from two fed hawks one as St. Louis fed chief Jim bullard he was saying he would not rule out supporting a half point rate hike at the March meeting, and he urged additional rate hikes to ensure inflation does return to that 2% target over time. I think we can lock in this disinflationary trend by continuing to have policy rate increases during 2023, even though the real economy looks like it's going to continue to grow and the labor market broadly across the country looks like it remains strong. St. Louis fed bank president Jim bullard there earlier in the day the head of the Cleveland fed Loretta mester was saying she saw a compelling case for rolling out a half point rate hike. Last month when the fed met, that would have brought the fed's target range to around 5%, it's above that now if you're listening to some of The Economist over at Goldman Sachs and Bank of America, they have baked in another 25 basis points at the June meeting. Now back to master, she said the fed has to be prepared to increase rates if inflation does remain stubbornly high. Bunny? Well, Tesla dog is recalling more than 360,000 full self-driving U.S. vehicles over crash risk, but Elon Musk is objecting to the use of the term recall more from Bloomberg's Denise Pellegrini. This includes some 2016 to 2023 Model S's and model X's, some 2017 to 23 model threes and some 2020 to 2023 model wise. All equipped with full self-driving beta software are pending installation, and that should a highway traffic safety administration officials say the system may allow the vehicles to act unsafe around intersections, including driving straight through intersections from a turn lane. The officials say Tesla did not concur with nhtsa's concerns, but agreed to go forward with the recall out of an abundance of caution. Tesla is expected to issue an over the air software update by the middle of April. Denise Pellegrini Bloomberg day break Asia. Well, Beijing is said to be reviewing a recent deal between Ford Motor and the Chinese battery maker cattle now the concern here is that no core technology from cattle would be handed over to Ford. Let's get more from Bloomberg's Ivan man. The agreement would see cattle's battery technology license for use in Ford's new EV battery plant in southwest Michigan, but China is said to be concerned given the sensitivity of the deal and its implications for U.S. China relations. Sources say the findings will be presented to the country's top leadership, but the time frame for that is not yet known. Chinese officials will also check that individual sanctioned by Beijing are not involved in the Ford cattle project. Meantime, U.S. Senate intelligence chairman Mark Warner criticized Beijing scrutiny as quote ironic and hypocritical. In Hong Kong, I'm Ivan ma'am, Bloomberg, Debra, Asia. It is almost 6 minutes past the hour and time now for global news. U.S. president Joe Biden looking to cool off tensions with China saying he intends to talk with China's president Xi Jinping. Let's get
Bloomberg Radio New York
"loretta mester" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Our top stories and go inside everything. And a good morning, a pair of Federal Reserve officials who vote on policy this year have backed a downshift in the pace of rate rises, Dallas fed president, Laurie Logan, said the U.S. Central Bank needs to keep hiking rates put slowly, Laurie Logan's view was echo by Philadelphia fed president Patrick harker, who says he favors raising rates in quarter point increments. There are remarks or at odds with comments from FOMC hawks. James bollard and Loretta mester, who believe it's too soon for a policy downshift. Now Blackstone has raised a record $22.2 billion for a fun that will acquire stakes from pensions endowments and other investors. The whole which far exceeds the firm's initial target is the biggest secondary's fund ever raised and comes as a private equity giant further expands beyond its buyout routes. And finally, English football clubs have cemented their position as a leading revenue generators here in Europe, Manchester City took the top spot in Deloitte's annual money league for a second year running with 5 more English clubs filling out the top ten man cities revenue up 13% last year was boosted by sharp increase in commercial income, Liverpool and Manchester United, also made the top 5. Global news 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg quicktake powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. This is Bloomberg, Stephen. Leigh Anne, thank you very much now. It's cold out here in London. It's even colder in Davos, but our next guest EU economy commissioner Paolo gentiloni is thrilled about the weather, which he thinks will drive a Europe wide economic recovery. We'll hear more from that interview from Davos in just a moment. This is Bloomberg. Bloomberg television first in global business news. The markets matter and they are moving. Yields actually lower globally from New York to San Francisco. Headlines involving Twitter from London to Hong Kong. It has been a week off huge gyration. The world turns to Bloomberg for market moving headlines. All eyes are on what's going on in the tech space. The dollar really taking control here. Bloomberg television, the Bloomberg business happened, Bloomberg dot com. Check your local listings for the cable or satellite provider in your area. Wake up and text
Bloomberg Radio New York
"loretta mester" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"To head out to shop either in store or online today. That's 10 million more than they expected last year this time. Retail analyst work flickinger says, though the people have cut back on purchases this year. People are buying for what they need in postponing purchases on what they want into 2023. Flickinger says buyers are not so hot on consumer electronics, TV and consumer audio with the exception of PlayStation Xbox, which flickinger said it is doing very well. Elon Musk is seeking new investors for Twitter at 54 20 a share enough. If that sounds familiar, it should. That is the same price he paid when he took the company private for $44 billion in October and kicked off a contentious overhaul. The managing director of the billionaire's family office Gerald birchall has been reaching out to potential Twitter backers this week, according to news site semaphore, reporting on Friday. It's hard to guess how high interest rates will have to go and how long they'll have to be high in order to crush inflation. Federal Reserve bank of Cleveland president Loretta mester said her estimate for interest rates is higher than that of her colleagues and the Central Bank needs sustained tight policy to defeat inflation. We need to continue to bring up interest rates into a restrictive stance. We did a lot of work this year in getting expeditiously to a restrictive stance. Now we're just in starting that bringing rates even higher. And I think we're going to need to be there for a long, you know, quite a while in order to get inflation on a sustainable downward path. Master was interviewed on Bloomberg radio. Brittany griner intends to play basketball for the WNBA again. Bloomberg's and moss to explains. In her first statement since returning from prison in Russia, Brittany griner says she intends to play basketball for the WNBA's Phoenix mercury this season, and thanked those who advocated for her release. She's also pressing for the release of ex marine Paul Whelan. In her social media post grinder, thank the Biden administration for bringing her home and so the last ten months in Russia were a battle at every turn. I'm Anne mos two Bloomberg radio. Meantime, efforts are intensifying to reach a swap deal between Russia and the U.S. for imprisoned former U.S. Marine Paul Whelan after last week's exchange of griner at Abu Dhabi airport. Whelan's Russian lawyer, Vladimir azira Bangkok, told Bloomberg news that diplomacy to free the 52 year old American has accelerating and he may be swapped with in a month or two. Waylon was sentenced to 16 years in 2020 on spying charges he denies this after being detained in December 2018 while attending a wedding in Moscow. Global news, 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg quicktake powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. I'm Susanna Palmer. This is Bloomberg
Bloomberg Radio New York
"loretta mester" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Com for more information. Let's head over to Charlie palette. He's standing by in the Bloomberg newsroom, Charlie, we got a little over what, ten minutes to go into the close today. 13 minutes, Tim hub with the Dow, the S&P NASDAQ were all off session lows right now, but red on the screen with the S&P down 9 tenths of 1% after the loretto master interview we have got the ten year yielding 3.47%, the two year 4.18%. Cleveland fed president Loretta mester, telling our Michael McKee her estimate for interest rates is higher than that of her colleagues on the Central Bank needs sustained type policy to defeat inflation, master interviewed moments ago right here on Bloomberg radio. The level of inflation is still way too high. You know, 7.1 on the CPI 6% on the PC measured year over year. That's well above our goal. And so that's why we have to continue using our tools to get inflation on that sustainable downward path. And again, ten year yielding 3.48% gold up $17 now 1794 up by 1% and West Texas intermediate crew down 2.4%, 74 26 a barrel. So it is a down day on Wall Street looking for a second weekly week of losses for stocks, third down day in a row recapping S&P now down by 9 tenths of 1%. I'm Charlie peloton. That is a Bloomberg business flash. A turn on the radio. Yeah, but you let me drive
Bloomberg Radio New York
"loretta mester" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Bridgewater associates puts it. The fed and the government together gave an enormous amount of debt and credit and created a lurch forward. It a giant lurch forward and created a bubble. And now they're putting on the brakes. Okay, so now we're going to create a giant lurch backward. Dahlia is speaking there as the fed keeps indicating it is not going to pull its punches when it comes to fighting inflation. And Denise, we got some of those indications this week from Loretta master head of the Cleveland fed. Here she is with Bloomberg's Kathleen Hayes. We need to do more. And we have not seen inflation move back down. And we need to see that because leaving inflation where it is, if we continues, there's a higher chance that it does become embedded in the economy and affecting pricing decisions of firms and also getting into the psyche of households. And that has long-term negative connotations for the economy. So this is a question. We know that it's time to continue on and persevere and bring the funds right up. We know that we're going to have to keep it there for a time until we see inflation beginning to come back down because we really want to make sure it's on a sustainable downward path to 2%. So if you remember the dot plot in the median path from the last SEP in September, we're very much aligned in terms of where we think policy needs to get to. Okay. Well, in fact, after 300 basis points of rate hikes, you know, it seems that the terminal rate, I want to ask you, does it look like maybe it's going to end up having to be higher than you thought. Do you have any confidence now in even knowing what the terminal raids claim to be people, many people have talked about something as high as 5%. Well, we have to wait until we see how the economy evolves. This is the assessment process that we're going to be going through the end of this year and into next year is we want to basically get inflation on this downward path, right? Labor markets continue to be very strong. We have seen some moderation there. We have seen some moderation on the product side of the economy. And it really is. Now we're going to calibrate going forward. But right now, the funds rate is just approaching a neutral of funds rate. And we really need to get it above neutral for a time if we want to put inflation on the downward path and we do. So again, we're we put out the dot plots, which give our best estimate at the moment of what's appropriate policy. But we're going to be doing this assessment of how fast is man moderating health quickly is supply maybe picking up and our price pressure is coming down. And that will be the job as we go forward in this challenging time. Well, the message from the fed seems to be all the comments lately that the idea is to move quickly, front row of the rate hikes, get to a four and a half to four and three quarters. And then see how that's affecting inflation. But to clarify, does this mean that once you get to that point when you think you're at neutral when it's four and a half to four and three quarters that you're going to pause even with the funds rate well below the rate of inflation because that's where it's likely going to be. Right. Well, I think we're going to see inflation come down next year. So when I'm thinking about how far above a neutral rate do we have to go. And I do think we're going to have to be in restricted territory. Remember, as inflation comes down, we're becoming more restrictive. So again, this is the assessment we have to do. So I think the appropriate path is we continue to raise rates a bit more. So we get it up to that level where we're positive in terms of the real funds rate. Based on expected inflation over the next year, then we wait and assess data coming in, but not only the backward looking data and the lag data, but also the information we're getting from the street in terms of Main Street, right? Real consumers, real households, real businesses telling us how they're thinking about the economy. What about there's a big difference right now between the PCE, which is your main target. And the CPI. So can you continue to target the PCE and a nor the CPI given how different they are, especially when you're trying to figure out when you've gotten to not a negative funds rate, but a positive funds rate. When we look at a lot of different measures of inflation are target, our inflation target is formulated in terms of the headline PC inflation. So including all components, we want that to be 2%. That's our target. But when we're assessing where inflation is going, we look at the CPI. We look at the underlying measures in terms of the median CPI inflation, the trim means CPI, to mean PCE. And those give us the core measures. They give us an idea of where inflation is going. So the gap is really reflective of just the weights of the components and the indices, but they're all telling us right now that inflation is high and it's likely to remain high. And that was Loretta mester head of the Cleveland fed with Bloomberg's Kaplan haze. And coming up real estate billionaire
Bloomberg Radio New York
"loretta mester" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"This is Bloomberg daybreak Asia for this Wednesday, October 12th in Hong Kong, Tuesday, October 11th in New York, and coming up this hour, U.S. stocks turned sharply lower after the Bank of England says it will halt intervention in the market. The IMF cuts its global growth forecast further this year and warns that the worst is yet to come. And we hear this hour from Cleveland fed president Loretta mester on fed policy. G 7 leaders pledged support to Ukraine for as long as it takes. U.S. beats air defense systems to Ukraine, German Chancellor Olaf Scholes plans a trip to China to talk Ukraine. I'm Ed Baxter, with global news. These PSG start killing and papa regretting his decision to stay in Paris. And the schwarzman I'll have that story more coming up in Bloomberg's boards. That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg daybreak Asia on Bloomberg 11 three O New York. Bloomberg 99 one Washington D.C., Bloomberg one O 6 one Boston, Bloomberg 9 60 San Francisco, Syria's XM one 19 and around the world on Bloomberg radio dot com and via the Bloomberg business app. Hi everybody, big show coming up a very good morning to you from Hong Kong. I'm Brian Curtis. And I'm Rashad Salomon. By interactive brokers, interactive brokers charges margin loan rates from 3.58 to 4.58%. Rate is subject to change. Learn more that I became dot com slash compare. All right, let's have a look at that. The trading day in prospect for Asia and does any currency markets in focus, let's get more bloomers that Chris joins us Doug. Yeah, it was a volatile day in markets have both stocks and bonds chopped around quite a bit. Now in terms of the equity space we had some dip buyers coming into the picture kind of midday when the S&P 500 fell to its lowest intraday level since 2020, but sentiment really took a hit late in the day when the head of the Bank of England said support for the British guilt market will end on Friday. This is governor Andrew Bailey. He essentially issued a warning to fund managers, wind up the positions you're unable to maintain. You've got three days left. So in the treasury market stateside, we had long rates moving up with a ten year picking up about 6 basis points to three 94. If you look at the equity market NASDAQ comp was down 1.1% today in the broader market we had the S&P 500 weaker by about 7 tenths of 1%. The Dow industrial average held on to a slim game, let's call it a tenth of 1%. We had U.S. listed Chinese shares falling on reports of new lockdowns in the city of Feng Yang, along with some entertainment venues being closed in Shanghai, the NASDAQ golden dragon index was down about three and a half percent today. We know that global growth is under pressure and for the moment China is not relaxing its zero COVID strategy. That may change after next week's party Congress, but crude oil today down nearly 2% in the regular session to 89 35. I'll take another look at market action for you in about 15 minutes right now and update on global news
Bloomberg Radio New York
"loretta mester" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Were 30 minutes away from the open of the cash market on the Chinese mainland and in HK. If you're joining from the region good morning, I'm Doug prisoner at the Bloomberg interactive broker studio in New York. And I'm Juliette Sully in Singapore markets coming online this hour also being sold off, but not quite as aggressive with some of the other moves we're seeing, let's get all the latest with Bloomberg's Brian Curtis in Hong Kong Brian. We are seeing some pretty aggressive selling in Taiwan at the moment the Taj down 1.6%, but much less so in Singapore, the straights times index just down a third of a percent in the early going right now China futures are moving down, but also not too aggressively off four tenths of a percent earlier hang seng index futures were down just four tenths of a percent. But around the cash markets that have been running for some time this morning, some pretty steep losses here, the ASX 200 down nearly 2% here, the nikkei trading off 1.6% and install the cost down 1.7%. And we don't have trading in India, but just looking at that astonishing number from yesterday. One lone green number here peaking out with a big gain of 2.7% in the sensex yesterday, pushing up ever closer to 60,000 on the sensex. So what's really happening? Well, it's a hawkish drum beat from central banks that is taking a toll on risk assets. It's supporting the dollar pushing up bond yields. We didn't have the two year yield up at 3.50%, so that's officially the highest that we've seen since 2007, so what is that 15 years? And the yield on the tenure now, 3.20%. So a lot of nervousness here. The dollar advancing, as mentioned, right up around 1300 on the Bloomberg dollar spot index, and we've got the yen getting close to one 40 against the dollar. Dalyan one 39 42 the Euro just over parody at 1.0026 and oils down as well, 89 19 a barrel. Doug to you. Thanks, Brian. Well, more fed officials, stressing the commitment to defeat inflation. Today, it was Cleveland fed president Loretta mester saying the fed needs to move its benchmark rate above 4% by early next year. And leave it there for some time. But mister also said the fed's next move will depend on a variety of factors. The size of rate increases at any particular FOMC meeting. And the peak fed funds rate will depend on the inflation outlook, which depends on the assessment of how rapidly aggregate demand and supplier coming back into better balance and price pressures are being reduced. That is Cleveland fed president Loretta master, she went on to forecast inflation moving to a range of between 5 to 6% by the end of the year, and she also said she's not expecting the fed to cut interest rates in 2023. Well, meanwhile, Morgan Stanley chief U.S. equity strategist Mark Wilson says investors should brace for more pain. He told us U.S. stock indexes haven't yet hit bottom for the year as investors have been too preoccupied with the fed. Wilson told us an earnings risk is now upon us. We're cutting numbers and we think the numbers are going to come down even further over the next two quarters. So the bottom line for us is the PE multiple is wrong again, not because the fed is going to be hawkish, but because the equity market is being too optimistic about the earnings outlook. Wilson said the market will probably hit bottom between September and December as earnings get cut. 5 minutes past the hours we update global news
Bloomberg Radio New York
"loretta mester" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"It is 8 30 a.m. in Hong Kong and here in Singapore, I'm Juliette Sally. And I'm Brian Curtis training is underway in Tokyo Sydney and Seoul and we see extending losses there the nikkei now one and a quarter percent the ASX 200 in Sydney down 1.9% will get details on markets with Doug prisoner in a few moments, but for now Jules and I will look at some of the top stories. And fed officials this week have been stressing their commitment to defeating inflation. Today, Cleveland fed president Loretta mester reinforce the message that the fed does have more to do. My currency is that we've necessary to move the fed funds rate up to somewhat above 4% by early next year and hold it there. I do not anticipate the fed cutting the fed funds rate target next year. Mister also said that the size of the fed's next rate hike will be data dependent, and she forecasts inflation moving to a range of 5 to 6% by year end. Two of the world's most influential chip companies are set for a legal showdown. British chip designer arm has sued Qualcomm for breach of contract and trademark infringement. The conflict centers on Qualcomm's acquisition last year of chip startup nuvia. Nubia's business developed chip designs using arm licenses and they can't be transferred to Qualcomm without permission from arm. Shares in Qualcomm fell about 1% in New York trading. So far this year, they're down about 27% from their peak. We'll take talk parent by Dan said to be lowering the price of its stock options to retain employees, this according to a human resources executive in the company, options process would be reduced to a $155 a share from the earlier $195, and that's a kind of just over 20%. It comes after a shop downturn in technology valuations over the past year. Chinese president Xi Jinping's cracked down on the tech sector has deflated growth prospects for China's tech giants, which in many cases are experiencing their first revenue declines on record. Disney says it's considering a broader
Bloomberg Radio New York
"loretta mester" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Hi everybody, our three of the program, thanks for joining us here on Bloomberg daybreak days. You good morning if you're tuning in from the Asia Pacific, good day if you're listening elsewhere, I'm Brian Curtis in Hong Kong. And I'm Juliet sali in Singapore. Let's get over to New York City for a check of how things are shipping out for the Asian trading session. And Doug krisna David and gless made a very interesting point that U.S. stocks haven't had a single day of gains since pal's speech at Jackson hall. Yeah, I think the market is really coming to terms with the fed's new mission of fighting inflation even at the expense of growth. We'll talk more about what we heard today in the U.S. from the head of the Cleveland federal Loretta mester momentarily here on daybreak Asia. I want to begin with what's happening in the foreign exchange, the Japanese yen, weakening quite a bit against the dollar we are down now about three tenths of 1%, a level one 39 35. We got as weak as 139 44 or thereabouts, that's a year to date low for the yen, Vis-à-vis the greenback, the weakest that we have seen since 1998. Now, futures for the Nike had been weak right up until the open and indeed we gapped down right now, trading weaker about 9 tenths of 1% in the nikkei two 25 with the loss of nearly 270 points in Seoul, the Cosby sagging by more than 1.2%. We had a revision to South Korea's second quarter GDP and expansion at a rate quarter on quarter of 7 tenths of 1%. That is exactly what we had in the initial estimate. Also, we're at a short while ago that 3M is planning layoffs to cut cost a given on an economic slowdown that the company is seeing globally. This is a good benchmark or a barometer I should say for the global economy since a 3M has its fingers in so many different pies. The stock finished in the late session down by just a tenth of 1%. In the late U.S. session. Right now in Seoul, I mentioned the Cosby being weak by about 1.2% in Sydney, ASX 200 down, 1% E mini futures for the American market sagging quite a bit. I'll take another look when we check markets again in 15 minutes brain. All right, Doug, thanks very much. Fed officials this week stressing that commitment to beating inflation. Today, Cleveland fed president Loretta mester said that the fed needs to move its benchmark rate above 4% by early next year and then leave it there for some time. But mister said that the fed's next move will depend on a variety of factors. The size of rate increases at any particular FOMC meeting. And the peak fed funds rate will depend on the inflation outlook, which depends on the assessment of how rapidly aggregate demand and supply are coming back into better balance and price pressures are being reduced. Mesh to forecast inflation moving to a range of 5 to 6% by year end, and she said that she doesn't expect the Central Bank to actually cut rates any time next year. Well, meanwhile, Morgan Stanley chief U.S. equity strategist Mike Wilson says investors should brace for more pain. He told us that U.S. stock indexes haven't hit yet bottom for the year as investors have been too preoccupied with fed. Wilson told us an earnings risk is now upon us. We're cutting numbers and we think the numbers are going to come down even further over the next two quarters. So the bottom line for us is the PE multiple is wrong again, not because the fed is going to be hawkish, but because the equity market is being too optimistic about the earnings outlook. Wilson said the market will probably hit bottom between September and December as earnings get cut. Coming up in a few moments we'll have Jeff Schultz with this director and investment strategist at clear bridge investments. The time now four and a half minutes past the hour. It's time for global news. California is under blackout warnings as the new heat wave
Bloomberg Radio New York
"loretta mester" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"The S&P taking its year to date losses now to 17% Brian. Yeah, from stocks to bonds to commodities, every major asset fell in the month. It was a pretty tough month just about everywhere except for the dollar. The dollar had some sharp gains. Traders have changed their rate height expectations now after central banks pretty much across the globe all vowing to step up their fight against inflation. It's not quite the same with China and Japan, but just about everywhere else. That is the case. And all the major U.S. indexes had their worst month since June. Treasuries in August faced their biggest monthly loss since April, oil with a third monthly drop in that marked the longest losing streak in more than two years. So I was looking pretty rough out there right now Hank sing index futures down about four tenths of a percent. Nikkei futures are suggesting maybe a 1% drop in the cash market once we get up and running. Australian futures are down 1%. S&P E minis down another three tenths of a percent after falling 31 points in the regular session. It was a drop of about three quarters of a percent. Well down below the 50 day moving average now. So the S&P 500 failed to get above the 200 day that wrapped up the gains that we had seen since the lows in June. And now is trending lower. Quite distinctly now in a bear market. We've got yields here like this, the ten year up close to 3.20%, three 19, but the gain of 9 basis points the two year up to three 49. And WTI $89 and 12 cents a barrel, dug to you. All right, Brian, thanks. Well, fed officials continue to stress the need to defeat inflation today. We heard from the head of the Cleveland fled to Loretta master, she was saying the fed needs to move its benchmark rate above 4% by early next year, and leave it there for some time. However, mister did say the fed's next move will depend on a variety of factors. The size of rate increases at any particular FOMC meeting. And the peak that funds rate will depend on the inflation outlook, which depends on the assessment of how rapidly aggregate demand and supplier coming back into better balance and price pressures are being reduced. That is Cleveland fed president Loretta mester, she is forecasting, by the way, inflation moving in a range of between 5 to 6% by the end of the year, mister also said she doesn't expect the Central Bank to cut rates next year, Rashad. All right, absolutely. We are looking also what is going on with equity markets because in the meantime, we've got Morgan Stanley chief U.S. equity strategist, Mike Wilson saying, investors should brace for more pain, telling us that stock indices in the U.S. have not yet hit bottom for the year as investors have been far too preoccupied with the Federal Reserve. Wilson told us an earnings risk is now upon us. We're cutting numbers and we think the numbers are going to come down even further over the next two quarters. So the bottom line for us is PE multiple is wrong again, not because the fed is going to be hawkish, but because the equity market is being too optimistic about the earnings outward. Wilson's saying the market will probably hit button between September and December as earnings get cut. Coming up on 5 past the hour as we update global news
Bloomberg Radio New York
"loretta mester" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Stocks have come off session lows as comments from a Federal Reserve official brought some relief to traders concerned about the odds of an even more aggressive pace of rate hikes plunging the economy into a recession. In fact, the S&P cut its drop by half at one point after fed governor Christopher Waller said he supports a 75 basis point hike in July, but could vote for more aggressive action if data show further inflation risks. Traders reduced bets slightly on a 100 basis point move after his remarks. The Bloomberg dollar spot index trimmed games after touching a record while the two year yield reversed its advance. Cleveland fed president Loretta mester tells Bloomberg, there's a lot of data to consider before jumping to a 100 basis point rate hike. There's more data coming out that I'm going to be very attuned to. We have retail sales coming out on Friday and we have a very important University of Michigan report and of course that's important because it has the place expectations measure a consumer measure in there. So, you know, we have data coming out. What I take from the report and it was uniformly bad. There was no good news in that report at all. Was that inflation remains unacceptably high level? S&P 500 is down 1.3% down 48. The Dow is down 1.3% down 405, and the NASDAQ is currently down 1.1% down a 121. The ten years down 1530 seconds with the yield of 2.99%. West X intermediate crew is down one and a half percent 94 90 a barrel comic skulls down 1.8% at 1704 30 and ounce. The dollar Yan one 39 O 8, the Euro just over a dollar in the British pound at dollar 1801. That's a Bloomberg business flash. Balance of power continues. On Bloomberg radio. This is balance of power on Bloomberg television and radio. I'm
Bloomberg Radio New York
"loretta mester" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Services. Right now, we want to get to Greg Jerry's got your Bloomberg business flash of the San Francisco, Greg. Let me slip my sunglasses on here, a lot of bright red stocks are slumping his disappointing results from two Wall Street heavyweights add to recession worries while bets the Federal Reserve will intensify its fight against inflation pushed the dollar gauge to a record yesterday's hot inflation print bolstered wagers of a full point fed hike in July, Cleveland fed president Loretta mester tells Bloomberg. There's a lot of dating to consider before jumping to a 100 basis rate hike. There's more data coming out that I'm going to be very attuned to. We have retail sales coming out on Friday and we have a very important University of Michigan report and of course that's important because it has the place expectations measure a consumer measure in there. So, you know, we have data coming out. And the S&P 500 is down 1.9% down 72 the Dow's down 1.9% down 590, and the NASDAQ's down 1.9% down 211. That's interesting all down 1.9%. Ten year is down 1630 seconds the yield 2.99% West Texas intermediate crude is down over 5% at 91 44 look to the value of the dollar for that. Comics gold is down 2.1% at 1699 per ounce the dollar yen one 39 17 the Euro is under a dollar just under a dollar and the British found the dollar 17 94. As if Twitter was not having enough problems, many who wanted to tweet this morning had to listen to Michael Jackson and the Jackson 5 from 1972. Yep, that was the song. It was a big hit, but Twitter had its problems because they had a massive outage this morning. Leaving thousands of users without service for about an hour at the peak at 8 20 in New York 54,582 users reported problems on down detector. That's the Bloomberg business flash Bloomberg markets
Bloomberg Radio New York
"loretta mester" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Richard fidelity international one of my favorite people at Davos someone who really has a grasp of the dynamics of global Wall Street Great to speak to Lin Martin of the New York Stock Exchange The other day I think a Loretta mester at the Cleveland fed meth winds and Ann Richards is the best of global Wall Street in mathematics as well He knows the myth of Macy's in its up Omar said joins us right now analyst It Evercore ISI on a very good day for Macy's What's the difference between Macy's doing well and target doing less than well Good morning from halfway around the earth Thanks for having me guys Great question Tom I think this is really important actually A lot of people look at the numbers coming out of retail recently Amazon Walmart target and understandably get worried about a consumer recession especially with all the inflation going on But I actually think something different a little bit different is happening I think we're reverting to the mean I think you're seeing a lot of those pandemic winning categories winning franchises start to give some of those gains back And some of those categories and retailers that really struggled during the pandemic for obvious reasons such as Nordstrom and Macy's you're seeing consumers return to those stores and return to those categories such as dressing up to go out So I think we're seeing more of a spending shift in the consumer behavior Pattern shift and necessarily early signs of a recession The word moonshot is not part of what your research departments wants you to use The fact is Macy's has been a moonshot off the pandemic mat But also over the last number of years it's been a real doubt about the strategic execution of their management.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"loretta mester" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Down to where is acceptable And then what happens Have we changed inflation dynamics in an inflation regime Well we're aiming for our long run goal of 2% Now if the question is will it take some time to get down to that level Yes because we know that inflation can be persistent And we have supply constraints that even though everyone hoped that they would be easing or not easing and there's upward risk to inflation So it will take some time I don't expect we're going to get inflation down To 2% this year or even by the end of next year But we need to see those monthly numbers moving down in a convincing way I'd have to see compelling evidence that that's happening before I would want to say that we can ease up on what we're doing with policy in terms of taking away accommodation and perhaps moving above the neutral position We're speaking with Loretta mester the Federal Reserve bank of Cleveland president here on Bloomberg radio and television If inflation starts to come down but not very quickly and unemployment starts to rise are you stuck on the horns of a dilemma Well you know policy making is always complicated and difficult and everyone goes into this meeting looking at those exact kinds of questions At this point inflation is just way too high The longer it stays at levels this high the more risk there is that inflation expectations in the longer run inflation expectations will move up And then I'll just make things much harder to control And so you know I'm really laser focused now on that inflation picture and making sure that there's convincing evidence that it is on a trajectory to move down and that.