17 Burst results for "Liz Mccormick"
Bloomberg Radio New York
"liz mccormick" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Conversation, thanks guys for joining us. That is Liz McCormick, who is Bloomberg news chief correspondent for global macro markets. And Ben Holland joining us from Washington, D.C. Ben is Bloomberg news global economics editor joining here on the Wednesday edition of Bloomberg business week. In a moment or two, we're going to have an interesting conversation around trying to get control of addictive technologies. This is Bloomberg. Bloomberg radio on demand and in your podcast team. On the latest edition of the Bloomberg surveillance podcast on the banking crisis, a conversation with KBW, CEO, Tom Michel. Beta, you really can't have markets work an economy work at the banking system's not working, and it's really it's a step beyond that because it creates a lack of confidence. You mentioned earlier about a history of bank panics. You can argue whether it was 8, 9, or ten, but let's say roughly ten bank panics in the history of the United States. Banks made mistakes. We just had the second and third largest bank failure in American history. But the banking industry is built on confidence. And when confidence is shaken, it could absolutely impact the whole economy. A two 31 national bank of middlebury. Perfect example of a small bank going, wait, they're going to come in here, cash out and give it to James diamond, explain to us the dynamic right now of the national banks of middlebury out there scared stiff of those top 5 first of all, so it's not only national bank of middlebury, which actually is a bank that you mentioned specifically. But the big banks lead the global banking system. This is an industry where the American big banks lead the global financial system. That's number one. But it's really the midsize banks that I think we need to talk about. And if let's just say for round numbers, the big banks today have 60% of the deposits in America, there is they do not make 60% of the loans to Middle America and small America. So if the deposits are going to the big banks, but they're not the ones making the loans to middle and small America. It's going to have an impact on the economy. And I think long-term down the road, we're
Bloomberg Radio New York
"liz mccormick" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"To the wire and there's a real concern, you might just see more selling of treasures. Again, we have a backdrop of rates rising, inflation being sticky. There's a lot of concern out there anyway. That was Bloomberg news, chief correspondent for global macro markets, Liz McCormick, along with the editor of Bloomberg businessweek Joel Weber, Joel will be back a little bit later on. Coming up, Hewlett Packard Enterprise CEO Antonio neri on his company's strong quarter. You're listening to Bloomberg businessweek, this is Bloomberg. Bloomberg radio on demand and in your podcast feed. On the latest sound on podcasts, labor secretary Marty Walsh on the February jobs report, as he departs to take on a new chapter leading the NHL players union. It's kind of strange Joe. This is 26 years of public service. Being here to the pot of labor at the last job's day meets a great day for jobs in America. It's almost a two year university of American rescue plane passing. So the president's done an amazing job and I've been part of this this ride with him and it's been amazing. The highest labor force participation rate since March of 2020. I remember where we all were in March of 2020. That wasn't that time. So you're looking at the highest number since the pandemic essentially. Why are people now finally coming back to work? A lot of it has to do with the economic plan that President Biden's laid out. A lot of us do with business as well thinking about and adjusting to the worker. People are getting back to work because they need to get back to work. I think that having people vaccinated, the numbers of COVID going down, all of that stuff is playing into this, you know
Bloomberg Radio New York
"liz mccormick" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Exactly. So that's made it harder. That's why we know in past times what a lot of the traders do is say, hey, listen, I'm not buying any treasury bills or bonds that have coupon payments, which is this semiannual interest that's coming around that crazy X day time. But now this XT range is so wide that it's kind of murky in the market, right? People are like, I don't know yet what debt to avoid, right? So maybe that will become more clear as a troublesome when we get a better date, you know? Maybe we'll get an update from the treasury of when that X date is going to be. If the wheels start coming off this car ahead of that X date, do we have any sense what's gonna break? Well, you know, after 2011, a lot of the parties that be that oversee the treasury market did a lot, they were like, we don't want to go through this again with having no idea. So they did a lot of backup plans. Like, what if like maybe treasury says, well, we'll delay the maturities a day. They can deal with that because you have to remember there's the repurchase agreement market that uses treasuries as collateral. So there's a lot of things that what if it couldn't even function. So there's been some backup plans, but even those officials say, but we're not sure. You know, we haven't been through this before. You hope the treasury market will function, but chairman Powell has also said, don't expect that the fed can swoop in and make all cure all evil that it would be repercussions on the economy for a long time. It may sting borrowing costs for years and years. Explain that to me, that if indeed we get that default. I mean, if somehow then there's a fixed quick fix after it Liz, would we still have that long-term impact? Well, the economy. That's what a lot of people say. Of course, we don't know till it happens, but you know some very smart people have said in various stories we've done that it could be cured very fast, but you have to think some big investors say, I might add that I need a little cushion because you know the U.S. has defaulted, right? So you would say there might be some premium added to yields, not just for a day or two. Maybe small, but as a baseline for a long time because it's totally different dynamic, you know? Yeah. What do we think on the Republican side? Are they, is there any cracks anywhere in the in the wall that maybe exposed here that may lead a small group of people to say, you know, we're not standing with McCarthy anymore? Well, not yet. There's a few strongholds member McCarthy took so many votes to get him in as speaker and he had to cut some deals and that's made it harder because they also can kind of, let's just say in light term, spike him as the speaker, they have that option. So he has a lot of kind of payback to do. Eric was saying that maybe McCarthy in the end will do the best for the country and say, you know, I'll follow my sword and you know, we'll make a bipartisan deal. You know, so it may go that way. But again, I think it comes down to markets getting ginned up. Stock selling off. And that being in the front of the local papers and things that policy makers may realize, oh, this is bad. And we'll come up with a deal. So it's just hard for me to believe that they won't. But one investor said to me, I don't know, never say never. You don't know. Okay, so why throughout all of this? And whatever may come yet, mark has been kind of sanguine. Everything seems like it's not quite registered that this could go awry. Well, I think there's a few things. One is, like we said, they can't kind of know yet exactly when we'll hit that wall. Number two, there's a lot of other problems, right? Inflation is going to be sticky, you know, not to minimize traders, but there's only so many things they can worry about at once, right? So the debt ceiling, they're kind of in far away. Yeah far away a little bit. We have seen U.S. credit default swaps, which is insurance against a default in the U.S.. They're not a huge product here, and they're not that liquid, but those rates have gone up. So there is a few people buying some hedges against a default, right? So I guess there's a little concern, but I think we need to get some more clarity when we could hit this wall for Marcus to really kind of like sell treasuries at that point and et cetera. Have we heard anything from the biggest holders of U.S. treasuries at this point? And I think about whether it's Japan, we always think about China. When you talk about maybe ultimately in the future, if we do get a default, they'll want more. In terms of holding them, but have we heard anything from global investors on that front? Well, from sovereign nations. Yeah, no, they haven't. I think they don't want to get in the middle of this fight. I'm sure if it gets down to the wire, you know, we've gone through this before. China's a little bit and they still hold a lot, but they're a little bit less of a player. U.S. has a lot more domestic investors than they ever had. So we're not getting into that political jockeying. And I don't think they would speak beforehand, but you do have private investors saying, like, I'm worried, like I think I had some story saying, oh, there's not gonna be too much volatility ahead and one investor emailed me. Liz, the debt ceiling, you know, so there are a lot of the private investors that are concerned that this could be a lot of havoc and even if we don't get a default, if it goes down to the wire and there's real concern, you might just see more selling of treasuries. Again, we have a backdrop of rates rising, inflation being sticky. There's a lot of concern out there anyway. That was Bloomberg news, chief correspondent for global macro markets, Liz McCormick, along with the editor of Bloomberg businessweek Joel Weber, Joel will be back a little bit later on. Coming up, Hewlett Packard Enterprise CEO Antonio neri on his company's strong quarter. You're listening to Bloomberg businessweek, this is Bloomberg. Bloomberg radio on demand and in your podcast feed. On the latest edition of the Bloomberg businessweek podcast, a conversation with former IBM CEO and chairman Jenny rometty on
Bloomberg Radio New York
"liz mccormick" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"We have Mike McKeon, who's our expert. We talked about this. Yes. I don't think that they want to come out and say that, especially now, where they're really talking. We had one of the fed officials today talking about where you have much more credibility. So I think if they decide to guide us, well, we're at 3%, that's pretty good. I think for now they're going to keep talking that, you know, we're still on course to eventually get to 2%. Like, I think it was remaining in your previous segment was saying, eventually we get to 2%, but I don't think they want to lose that credibility. So maybe at some point, we know a lot of people have said that. I think Muhammad Elliot has talked about that. Going for 2% is just not the right number. But like you said, they've got to be very careful because so much about the fed winning on inflation is credibility. The market believing they'll do what they say. So that might be a big rethink, but I suspect they want to get through this year before they even kind of flick it that they're thinking about thinking about thinking about that. Yeah. Well, I just have to wonder too about the fed's ability to achieve that goal with the tools that they have. I mean, we would all love for inflation to come down Liz, but can the fed do that with the tools that they currently have at their disposal? Well, it's funny that one thing, you know, an investor said to me. And I always love when they bring something up, 'cause they're supposed to be smarter than me and they are, but I'm not asking that. I don't know if they are. Well, you say, well, Liz, by the way, and one guy said to me an investor, listen, Liz, you know, rate hikes are one thing, but I'm really worried about the quantitative tightening, which we've kind of forgotten about, which is the fed rolling off its balance sheet, which is at full speed now, and you know, what if that does continue on for another year or so, like the fed would like. There's some saying if the fed, of course, has to eventually cut, they'll stop that. But so you do have these two tools going. The right tool is the most blunt chair pals made that very clear. But they're also pretty quickly trying to bring that balance sheet down. So there is a lot of tightening in the system. And like you said, none of us feel too good. My vegetables are still more expensive than ever, but eventually they should get there. We hope to bring down inflation. Hey Liz, when you look at the trade, especially in the treasury trade over the last couple of weeks, it does feel like investors have gotten religion to some extent in terms of what the fed officials and FOMC members have been saying. So what do you think our audience has to kind of note when it comes to that treasury trade? I mean, right now, I'm looking at a two year note. It's off its highs of the day. But we're still at 4.8. What is it that they need to understand about the action that we've seen over the last week or so? Well, you know, it's interesting you bring that up because we were looking because like I said, this month has been brutal for bonds, right? The real just took off. Remember how January was also the everything rally, everything reality, including bonds. And I remember one investment manager saying to me, it was like January 25th. Well, if we could stop the year now, I've had a great year, you know? Unfortunately, it doesn't work that way, right? But so I think, you know, remember all the street analysts call this the year of the bond, right? Things are better yields are better. So I don't think we want to write that off yet. This was a brutal beating this month, rates are very high, like you said, but what if it does prove the fed gets the 5 and a quarter 5 and a half and stops, inflation starts to come down. You know, 6 months time, things could be looking better. I don't think a lot of people who are bullish on bonds are willing to give up their kind of willing to basically take the pain for a while. That may not be true if this keeps up for another three 6 months, but for now, I think the bullish Bond people are saying, okay, yeah, I'm not doing so great now, but I do think it'll be better. I'm making some decent income. I don't think festival in the 6%, you know, they're in that camp, you know? So we'll see. Really quickly here Liz, the thing that I would love for you to help me be smarter on is the fed updating its basic model of understanding in like 30 seconds. Can you tell me, do you think that update was enough? Do they understand our current economy? Well, that's another $1 million question. Let's talk about their update on what they think the neutral rate is kind of that standard base rate where they're not adding stimulus or removing it. And they have an updated that yet. And a lot of people think it's higher now. So the fed's long run rate is like a two and a half. People in the market think, mmm um. It's a different world now that might be high or so that could be a game changer. So there are some questioning some of the fed's bottles. You know, the jury's out on who's right or if they adjust, but it's an open question. Yeah, there's a lot going on and certainly for the fed to have to kind of figure out Liz McCormick. You always figure out so much for us here. So appreciative. Liz McCormick, she's chief correspondent for global macro markets at Bloomberg news joining us via Zoom
Bloomberg Radio New York
"liz mccormick" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Points lower, 10,545 is the level for the NASDAQ. Ten year treasuries down 30, 30 seconds yield 3.59% yield on the two year now up to 4.25. Nymex crude higher as well up 1.4% or a dollar 7, $75 36 cents a barrel comics gold is down two tenths percent, 1797 30 announced the Euro 1.0612 against the dollar. The yen is at one 36.98. That's the Bloomberg business flash, pollen creedy. All right, good stuff there. We really appreciate that. Looking at the IN go function pretty on the Bloomberg terminal gives you all the returns and Bloomberg index browser. I'm looking at the Bloomberg U.S. aggregate total of value index for the credit for the fixed income stuff down about 11.1%. That's bad. But it was actually a lot worse a few months ago. Bonds have been rallying a little bit here and I want to get a sense of what's going on out there. So we turn to Liz McCormick, chief correspondent global macro markets for Bloomberg news. I think she's down in our D.C. studio, which is pretty cool. Liz, thanks so much for joining us here. You know, it seems like it's not as bad as it was earlier near for the fixed income space. What are you seeing? Yeah, it's amazing. And I am in our lovely D.C. office here. But yeah, our folks in the corporate finance team wrote a nice story. I tell you, you see it everywhere from either the credit or the sovereign folks. It's like they said the outlooks are all about, oh, the year of the bond, the comeback of the bond, and it's like you just lay down how brutal the year has been with returns, but the flip side of that is it's brought yields higher, right? And people are saying, oh, well, maybe we're at peak inflation, you know, maybe stressing. Maybe even though the fed says it's going to stay at high rates for a long time. Maybe at least the uptick is going to stop soon. And maybe it's a time to lean back into the fixed income side. So like you said, there's folks like Vanguard and others saying, you know, investment grade credit looks good and maybe it's the time to dip back in and even some on the sovereign side. Treasuries and global sovereigns. Liz, there is a fun fact that Ira Jersey said to me last week and I've been saying, I think this is like the fourth time on the show that I've said it today. But he essentially argues that the idea of fed cuts being priced in the market is capping yields, especially on the front end of the curve for the two year yield, is there a possibility here that rate cuts or at least the possibility of them next year get pushed out of the curve and how quickly could you see some sort of shock to the front end of the curve if that happens? Well, I have to say and not have to say, but I do agree with Ira that those cuts being priced in our helping, right? Especially help them flatten the curve, but I mean, we saw a bill Dudley right on our opinion page today that kind of the market may need to listen to the fed and a Jerome Powell couldn't have been more clear that like, hey, we're not even thinking about cutting yet. So I think there is a lot of risk despite everyone saying the year of the bond, which sometimes when everyone's saying the same thing, it almost makes you nervous, right? There's a risk that things go the other way. But I think you're right. There's about 50 basis points of cuts priced in by the end of 2023. And if we go meeting by meeting by kneading and the fed keeps leaving it there and signaling, you know, no cuts to the next year. The market will eventually come in line. And I think you're right. That means maybe then the two year yield has more room to go upside. So there are some firms like you've probably seen BlackRock is warning, like sovereign debt, you know, there's a lot of risks inflation could be sticky and the fed stays high long. And that world, like you said, two year yields could go higher. And Liz, I mean, a lot of folks obviously talking about a recession in 2023. Are we seeing any signs of that concern and maybe the high yield market at all, maybe some of the lower end? Well, I do hear from folks and you seeing their reports and this nice story today is talking about, you know, when things get bad and you have a recession, it's defaults you're worried about and some high yield risk. So I think a lot of them leaning into the market are saying be selective into the debt markets. Let's go with the safer. The investment grade, which investment grade, like treasury, he's got really walloped the most because a lot of the bond yield as we've known for the last year, the pain and the bond market has been just pure call it duration risk. Fed just jamming up rates by over 400 basis points, push yields, and not to get too wonky, but you're getting more of a pure rate play. And investment grade credit, and of course in sovereigns because there's not as much risk of defaults, but high yields and things like that. I was listening on the radio with you guys this morning. I forget it was chatting with him, but Dennis gartman was on, and he was pretty negative on things, saying, you know, recession coming, fed to stay high. And that's when you worry is they're going to start to be more defaults. And, you know, these lesser grade companies not doing well or having trouble rolling over debt now that yields are higher. It's interesting that you mentioned defaults because it almost feels like at the moment the consensus here is that if there is a shallow recession, the risk of fallen angels, for example, is very, very low. But let's talk a little bit about Bond volatility here because if you look at the move index, you are starting to see it kind of stagnate a little bit when it comes to volatility. It's extremely high and it's kind of staying at those high levels. But why if the Federal Reserve has been nothing but clear about their strategy moving forward? Well, that I will admit it's a bit of a head scratcher because there's been a few fed meetings that I kind of said, oh, Jerome Powell, maybe had a little trouble with communication. This time he seemed to have his notes in line and you're right, volatility has come off, but it's still historically high and I think kind of getting to what Paul was asking is that, you know, even though people are saying, hey, maybe the debt markers will do better next year, maybe inflation is peaked. There's a lot of maybes, right? So I think there's enough risk out there that people aren't there is some volatility selling. That going on. But not in screaming, because especially after you've had such bad losses, you've got to be careful, I think. And so people, you do still hear people saying I'm holding powder dry, keeping cash. And I just don't think people are going to think Bond volatility is over until we kind of see the whites of the eyes, whatever that number is, CPI gets down to 4% that people really trust that inflation is in this falling trend. And we still just looking at the twos and tens Liz still about 65 basis points of inversion there. How are people thinking about an inverted yield curve? I'm just an equity guy, but I've been told, if you get an inverted yield curve, that means a recession, but we've been inverted for a long time. It seems like. Yeah, we've been inverted for a long time.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"liz mccormick" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Pull off a soft landing. I think in the market, like I was talking to a head of treasuries over at Vanguard and their firm's economists say, you know, fed will get to 5 and change and stay there next year, but he said, you know, there's a lot of uncertainty and he said, one thing we know for sure is it's getting his words like really tough for them to land this plane, meaning a soft landing. I think that risk is growing, even if people aren't who aren't officially calling for a recession. Again, the more this data comes out in the not in the fed's favor, the more bodes for them keeping retire for longer, the odds go up of a recession. I have to ask you this because I was reading this yesterday and I actually thought of you. We've talked about this in the past years ago about what kind of financial Armageddon would happen when we got rates this high. And Jeremy Stein, Harvard University professor, also who served on the fed board of governors from 2012 to 2014. Came out and said, it's astonishing. If you told any one of us a year ago, we're going to have a bunch of 75 basis point hikes. You'd have said, are you nuts? You're going to blow up the financial system. Do you think that it's too soon to say that that is not going to happen or do you think that it is fair to say, you know, it's testament to how much companies have extended financing and have really gotten themselves into shape that we haven't seen more of a disruption. Well, I think and I like Jeremy son a lot. I think what he's saying is true. Nobody thought we'd get here. Nothing has kind of like everyone loves to say something's going to break. But we are seeing issues, right? Well, we won't get into exactly who, but some companies are having troubles. But I think this is where this rub of, if the fed proves out of sticking it, like, say, 5% for a whole year, like more issues, like even just debt service costs, like we recently did a story about that. I mean, maybe not so much in the U.S., but around the globe, there's a lot of consumers who have floating rate mortgages, those are getting reset higher. People with home equity lines getting reset higher, companies, you know, they're not all refinancing today because they termed out debt, but when they start to, I mean, that's when it keeps going like, what else do you see kind of shake out of the water? You know, I don't like to use the zombie thing, but I don't know. I don't know if Jeremy all clear forever. Like, we're probably all clear, obviously, for now, but if the feds at 5, 5 and a quarter for a year or so, we haven't had that. You know, so I don't know about 6 months from now. Yep, good stuff. All right, Liz, thanks so much for taking the time to joining us here. Liz McCormick. She's Bloomberg chief correspondent for global macro markets. Just kind of getting the lay of the land on these PPI data and at least again another busy week next week for eco data and fed watchers, the CPI, obviously on Tuesday, the consumer price index, then we'll have the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday, you know, it could go either way, but I just think people are trying to get a sense of, is this a Federal Reserve that feels like it still needs to be in the aggressive mode, I guess. Sam bankman fried also testifying in front of Congress. And we're going to have on site down in Washington for some live reporting. So that's going to be headline producing, I'm sure as well. So looking at the markets here, a little bit of red on the screen here. Yeah, sbx of futures off about four tenths of 1%, looking at the yields ten year treasury up about four and a half basis points. 3.53 and at least before called WTI crude oil, it's up just slightly $71
Bloomberg Radio New York
"liz mccormick" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"From Bloomberg world, headquarters I'm Charlie Pelé to down the S&P nez stank all in the red right now. We're looking at an 8 tenths of 1% drop on the S&P 500 Index down 32 points now to 37 27, the Dow just below 32,000 right now 31,999 down a 148 points or by 5 tenths of 1% and NASDAQ is down a 119 a drop there of 1.1%. Ten year yield 4.13% with a two year yielding 4.68%. The Dow the S&P NASDAQ all remain in the red. Some of the other stories that we are following for you today, of course, we've got San Francisco based stripe, one of the world's most valuable startups announcing more than 1000 job cuts as it seeks to rein in costs ahead of any economic downturn. This according to an email to staff that was seen by Bloomberg news. Again recapping stocks lore, S&P 500 Index down 30, a drop now of 8 tenths of 1%. I'm Charlie peloton that is a Bloomberg business flash. Charlie, thank you so much. This is Bloomberg markets. We're recording reporting whatever you want to call it from the interactive broker studio, Paul Sweeney. Reported, they are out, I guess. I tried Nathan. Terrifying. I really, really tried. Creating Nathan Hager, filling in on a really exciting day, Nathan. This is post fed, you're seeing a very strange reaction in the stock market. It feels like there isn't really a consensus on whether or not the terminal rate could go much, much higher as a chairman Powell is certainly suggesting in his press conference ever less bonds are selling across the spectrum or across maturities. There's a lot to digest here and when we have this kind of conundrum of where do we even start? There's only one person to bring into the conversation. That of course is Liz McCormick. She's our chief markets correspondent on the FX and rate space, writing a pretty interesting story about how the fed is still enemy number one for a lot of these Wall Street traders, Liz, thank you as always for joining us, it's hard to pick a place to start because there's so much going on here, but if 5% is no longer the terminal rate in March of 2023, as was priced in going into the meeting, how high can we go? Yeah, boy, it's like a brain spinning time, right? I think all bets are off now. How was just so crystal clear like, hey, the data we saw since last meeting means our rates that we're going to project are higher, and so the market is pricing, the terminal rate isn't interesting out to June. It's got about 5.2 ish now, right? So, and you don't see barely any cuts by the end of the year. So that's like fed higher, keeps going higher and is very slow to cut rates. So that's kind of a double problem for bond investors, right? High rates and sticky high rates. Yeah, it keeps getting pushed back and back and back. And now we're seeing the inversion on the twos ten year at 55 basis points. I'm looking at a chart on it where it's like a spread that we're not we haven't seen since the early days of the Reagan administration. It makes you wonder how much further the idea of long and deep recession could be going in the bond market. Well, yeah, that's totally interesting. And I think, you know, I have a Jersey in our Bloomberg. The I group had a note saying, you know, that inversion is going to go further, right? Beyond these like already like you're saying historic levels. And with the feds in a bind, right? I mean, Powell said yesterday, the kind of path to a soft landing is getting worse, but their backs to the wall with inflation high. So yeah, Nathan, it could be that they have to go so far and the recession may be a worse recession than it would have been, right? Because the system, look at the housing market. Luckily, I'm not buying a house now, but for your trades to over 7%. Liz, I asked this question to I think a source of yours actually Danielle dimartino booth who is a favorite of our show. We talked a little bit about this comment that chairman Powell had made in his press conference. He said, well, the risk of over tightening is actually perhaps not that bad and I'm paraphrasing, of course, but he says we can always take a U turn. We can always kind of use the tools in our toolbox and cut rates. If we go too far. But Liz, in an environment where the Federal Reserve has gotten a lot of scrutiny for using those rates. And for quantitative easing as well, is there perhaps some hurdles for chairman Powell to actually cut rates when the time comes? Yeah, I mean, you're right. It's a good point. And I really like Danielle, like you said, too. But yeah, I mean, it's not so easy, right? He seemed to say, well, now, and he said in the past, it was vice versa, but now like you said, he said the risks are, you know, we let inflation stay too long. And that's a problem. So we can always cut rates, but you're right. You know, they're in a situation where it may not be that easy, especially, you know, creating them to kind of redeploy QE. There's a lot of political pushback against that, right? So I don't think he's got it too easy on either way, you know? Yeah, if they turn around too soon and if they were to pivot, which they definitely didn't yesterday and they let inflation get too bad, then they got to double down and then how you could again. But I think you're right that it may not be too easy if they crush this economy just to quickly revive it. So could things get worse before they get better next year for the fed Liz? Well, I think sadly we should all not look at our retirement accounts now. I think it's going to get worse for everything. Stocks are obviously taking it on the chin, the bond markets down, we've had that 60 40. There was no place to hide in the last year or two. And if the fed, we've got two CPI reports before their next meeting. If they're still strong, I mean, nothing will change as far as them seeming hawkish. So I think rates could go higher. This kind of 60, 40 paying could last and I'm not an equity analyst. I'm just saying, you know, what I see on the screens, but yeah, and you know, that's what they need, even though senators like Elizabeth Warren are saying we don't want too much pain, but Powell saying, sadly, we're going to have to have some pain for the American people. Otherwise, the pain could be worse if we have inflation for years and years entrenched. Liz 30 seconds here, the bull case for the dollar does it turn around or does it decrease the minute there is actually some sort of stalling out on the terminal rate. Well, wow, the bull case for the dollar, which was maybe seeming to kind of falter a little. It just got supercharged, right? But I think if the terminal rate keeps getting pushed higher and you have other central banks like the B of B today saying, hey, pull back your peak rates, you've got this divergence. So I think for now, there's not a lot to stop the dollar higher unless we get like two really soft CPIs, which I'm not predicting. Certainly something to watch. Liz McCormick our chief global macro markets correspondent. We thank you, as always, really the one and only name you have to ask when this kind of wonkiness takes place not
Bloomberg Radio New York
"liz mccormick" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Is balanced power on Bloomberg television and radio. I'm David western, we're going to check in on the markets right now if they would turn to critic Gupta. So it looks like sort of an equity kind of day off a little bit, but how much of a semiconductor? A good chunk of it is driving the entire market down actually. So this comes right back down to geopolitics. We've been talking about this. I feel like for weeks, David, this idea here that President Biden is actually cutting some of the technology, exports that are getting sent to China. So for those of you who are not familiar, basically when a chip is made, we like to think of the tiny little things that go into smartphones and washing machines and cars. Well, there are even tinier pieces that go into that tiny piece that the United States actually exports. So when the Biden administration basically takes that part out when it does kind of cripple an entire chip industry. It's on those fears that some of the biggest heavyweights of the S&P 500 are kind of coming crumbling down Nvidia. Advanced Micro Devices Applied Materials. These are all heavyweights in the S&P 500 that are pulling the entire market down. And you can really see the pain in the NASDAQ down one and a half percent. The semiconductor index of Sox index now trading at November 2020 levels right back to where the election last presidential election was. So you can really see that geopolitics are at play here. And of course, this is coming ahead of a very tumultuous, a very vault or earnings season as well. So that's going to be something that we're going to want to pay attention to. And when will we turn back to the fed when the CPI numbers come out? When the CVI numbers come out, it kind of feels like we go from payrolls, the CPI to fed decision, and then rinse and repeat, which crucial about the bond market right now, though, of course, is closed today, but Liz McCormick and our team over on the print side actually wrote this amazing story about just how many funds or sources of demand are kind of drawing up when it comes to foreign buyers when it comes to at the same time that QT is happening. So there's a lot of pain in the market that would have
Bloomberg Radio New York
"liz mccormick" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Sudden Friday matters. Liz McCormick, thank you so much. Of correspondent global macro. It Bloomberg news. Paul, I was on the street last night without The Rain. Rain, no rain, rain. It was a window of no rain, came up and they said, talk about the streaming because the person in the streets that they had like 5 6 streamers and their continent back. Who's winning the streaming wars right now? I don't know. I don't know. Well, certainly if you're creating content, you got plenty of demand for your content. You can place it anywhere you want. You make a movie, and then you figure out how you're going to distribute it, which is completely new way of going out. What are the names that we are all paying our stupid money every morning? Come on, the sum total in my house is bigger than my old cable. Exactly right. Okay. And we saw who's winning that choice. Well, yeah, I think the clear winners right now are Netflix and Disney. And then I think it's everybody else is gonna fight for whatever market share is left, whether the paramount plus we don't know the discovery. You don't know. And quite frankly, it's going to be a question who can bear the most financial pain to get to that point where you can kind of break down and start making real profits on there. And Netflix has done it in most of their markets. Disney will do it in another year or two. And then we'll have to see everybody else does. I see let's use of Netflix among the horde at home. I think it's just simply there's competition now. You have lots of places you can go to. Very good. We've got lots of places to lift the market features up 55 down features of three 55 630. That's important 29.18. With our news in New York City is Michael
Bloomberg Radio New York
"liz mccormick" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"It's happening to the U.S. too. You all paying back debt at a higher level. But if they have to pay back in dollars like you're getting to, it's harder to get that many dollars, right? So it's costing them more to pay if they have dollar denominated debt. So it can go in a various tentacles that hurt them for sure. Do we have to be worried Liz about, you know, we've seen this in the past, right? You talk about history, was it back in 85 in your story you talk about the Plaza court. I mean, do we have to be worried though about other nations working in agreement together to counter that strong U.S. dollar? Well, of course, some are trying in unison, like you guys have talked many times about the bank of Japan, which had been intervened unilaterally trying to slow the weakness in their currency. Other countries are doing some mild intervention, but you know, not to be like the U.S. is everything. But for a major intervention to really have heft, the U.S. would have to be involved. So much of FX trading, part of it is price in dollars. So I mean, other countries could try to coordinate a little bit more, but what it seems like. And you know, never say never, but the kind of 1985 style Plaza accord, you know, it is in the cards now. That was Bloomberg news bond in FX reporter, Liz McCormick on it this week's cover story. Coming up, well, the strong dollar. Yep, it's a big macro issue for the world. However, not necessarily top of mind for 1 May or back here in the United States. He is more concerned in making sure his city is among the country's most desirable
Bloomberg Radio New York
"liz mccormick" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Bat. I'm Scott Carr. And I did his Pellegrini in the Bloomberg newsroom. Investors may be glad for the weekend relief today after stocks plunged currencies while an interest rate spiked across the globe this past week, including yesterday. Liz McCormick is chief correspondent global background markets. I think the doors are all blown off. I mean, look at the UK, the movements are insane. How much yield to rose with the fiscal stimulus, the tax cut. And I think some of these global bond markets, the sovereign ones are bursting, those bubbles are getting popped all over. And McCormick does say, watch for more drama before it's all over. And after the Federal Reserve signaled last week, it's not done raising interest rates yet. We will hear from a slew of fed speakers this coming week, but bricks Nathan hacker is for Nathan. It kicks off Monday with Atlanta fed president Raphael bostic discussing income inequality at a Washington Post event. The heads of the Boston and Cleveland banks also speak Monday at separate events in the Boston area. On Tuesday, the Chicago and St. Louis fed presidents take part in discussions overseas, San Francisco's Mary Daly gives a keynote speech at Boise state university on Thursday, and on Friday, fed vice chair while brainer joins New York president John Williams at a conference on financial stability. All right, thank you, Nathan. And speaking of the fed and inflation watch two months to go before Thanksgiving, and the price of turkey is really going to stuff it to you. Turkey at an all time high, nearly 30% higher than a year ago. Overall inflation and also that terrible burnt flu outbreak to blame for this. And the head of the world's largest movie theater chain. Now joining the call for a four day work week, posting on Twitter, AMC, CEO, Adam aron, says it would happen to also
Bloomberg Radio New York
"liz mccormick" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Still the lack of full blown blown capitulation at this point could be a sign that the carnage isn't over yet. You have big firms like Goldman slashing their targets for stocks. They weren't a dramatic upward shift in the outlook for rates will weigh on stock valuations. Yeah, you mentioned the dollar hitting a fresh record sweeping aside other currencies of the pound, for instance, touching its lowest in 37 years. Looking at cable right now, one O 9. Also in striking distance of parity, dollar DXY that measure of 9 tenths of a percent. And as far as yields, the two year of 5 basis points four 17, the ten year is at three 70. We check the markets for you every 15 minutes during the training day right here on Bloomberg radio. I'm John Tucker, and that is your Bloomberg business flash call. All right, John Tucker, thank you so much. We appreciate that. Boy, it just looking at their red across my Bloomberg terminal here with the significant exception of the dollar that continues to be strong, pretty much across the board across all currencies. What to make of all this stuff. Let's check in with Liz McCormick. She's been doing this for a few years. Chief correspondent. She covers global macro markets with Bloomberg news. Liz, what's your takeaway here as we look at the weight of the market this week, this month, this year in the face of what appears to be pretty concerted global tightening here. What do you make of what's going on out there? Well, it is kind of amazing. If you look at the sea of call it size and scope, how big that fall, this is, it's just amazing. And I think let's talk about the rates market for a second. I think there's it's clear that global central banks have gotten religion on inflation, right? This global hawkishness, everybody, besides the bank of Japan. And that inflation is also sticky. I mean, we're seeing, I don't want to seem like an old lady, but people who've been in the market who never saw higher rates saying, wow, jeez, we can go above 4% in a two year node. And I think the doors are all blown off. I mean, look at the UK, the movements are insane. How much yields that rose with the fiscal stimulus, the tax cuts, and it's just kind of an awakening. And I think some of these global bond markets, the sovereign ones are bursting. Those bubbles are getting pumped, popped all over. Yeah, they really are. I think there's a contagion effect that actually Christie Lena gorge of the IMF warned about in the spring meetings, and she said, look, the way the bond market is reacting, it's a sovereign in debt crisis in the EM world. That you got to keep your eye on. Ironically, Liz, people are now saying the pound is turning into an EM currency. What gets me here is, didn't we know this? Didn't we know that if you basically in the United States fight the fed, but basically if you have this kind of budding of heads between the monetary authority and the fiscal authority, things are going to go south and that's why we're seeing flattening in the guilt curve and arguably in the treasury curve as well when you do have these kind of fiscal responses, why would they do this? Well, isn't that the $1 million question? And I'm not one to criticize the UK government, but like Mark Gilbert, who's with our opinion team, wrote, well, the markets are telling you this is not realistic, you know, look at the reaction, like you said. I mean, clearly, people are struggling all over the world, right? With the energy crisis and remnants of it, and the governments want to help, but to put through so many stimulative things while like you said, even the Bank of England is trying, you know, been tightening to bring down inflation that just at lager has with each other. And in the market, I came in at first, I thought, is there a bad tip or something? You know, you can guilt yields up 50 basis points. I mean, it's astounding. So here, back here in the U.S., the twos and tens, the yield curve is inverted, 40 basis points give or take. What does that tell you, Liz? Well, you know, I think despite chairman Powell trying hard to say, I know it's painful, but we're trying to hopefully not destroy the economy. I think the inverted yield curve and had an investor say to me today, Paul, that eventually not too long from now they think the broader curve, like from the fed funds rate or three month bills to the ten year is going to get deeply inverted, which is all a sign of recession. So twos ten being inverted, especially for a while now, right? Yes. And we clearly the bond market saying, we believe you're going to tighten and all rates are going up. But that this doesn't seem like this can be pulled off without turning the economy, the U.S. economy on its head and having a recession. Sometimes, I guess at least by next year, we've had a minute here Liz, I want to bring it back to the global story. The bull case for the treasury market here in the U.S. is it just that everything else is basically struggling right now. I mean, you see these fun flows, you see the most massive bond market itself in the UK, arguably in European I want to say spreads looking to potentially widen over the weekend with this Italian election coming up a far right leader expected to become the first female prime minister in Italy. Is that the bull case for the treasury market? Well, I think probably everyone who's doing it knows they're going to take some pain for a while. But the bull case for the treasury market is all those kind of risks and the long end, right? That you should kind of, a lot of them are peppering their way in, kind of like buying well more pain comes because if Paul was mentioning the recession happens, if more of these global issues keep popping up, then yeah, eventually you're going to see like we saw crazy rally amid the rise today and yields that when risk is so off you're right. Where do you go? The U.S. dollar treasury. So, but I don't think it's going to be without paying for a while pretty. But yeah, you know, buying into the long end is kind of like your hedge here for those other things. All right, Liz, good stuff. We appreciate getting your time Liz McCormick chief correspondent for global macro markets for Bloomberg news. She is a proud Rutgers scarlet knight alum undergraduate and MBA from Rutgers her Rutgers scarlet knights are three NO. They're gonna host Iowa this weekend in piscataway, so lots of good stuff happening at Rutgers and we appreciate Liz taking some time here. And again, you know, we kind of have certainly a risk off here again day today. Feels very heavy across asset classes in general. This is a market discounting what appears to be a global move higher in rates to combat global inflation. All right, right now let's head down to Washington, D.C. We'll get world a national news, and we do that with a new Mars. All right, thank you, Paul, Russian president Vladimir Putin is once again making some thinly veiled threats of using nuclear weapons in the conflict with Ukraine, experts say this can not be discounted. Texas a and M professor John schlesser. If the war turns against them conventionally, that's when they would be tempted to brandish the nuclear threat. And that appears to be happening here. Texas a and M professor John schlesner says if we see the U.S. ramping up activity in that part of the world, then it's time to take the threat seriously, however, he says that's not happening at least not yet. U.S. and China officials, meanwhile, meeting today amid rising tensions over Taiwan, China foreign minister Wang Yi says ties between the two nations are at a low ebb in a sign of low expectations the U.S. characterized today's meeting as no more than a way to maintain open lines of communication. Wine compared the recent push for Taiwan independence to a charging rhinoceros that must be stopped in its tracks and blames the U.S.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"liz mccormick" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Very much, Charlie palette at the Bloomberg business flash. Now let's get over to our chief correspondent for global macro markets Liz McCormick joins us to talk about what we're seeing happen in the fixed income on the fixed income side of things. Me and Paul are just dumb equity guys. So it's good to get slowly. Smart person's take. Yeah, please use small words for us. You have a story out today that jobs the jobs data that we see tomorrow is potential to push the fed towards a third jumbo hike. So a third, what? 75 basis point hike. If payrolls beat, right? Right. Even like you saw the ISM numbers today, the sub index unemployment showed it was decently holding in some strength. So if the jobs number comes out, especially if it beats like you said, I mean, the data just seems to be building that shows the fed has room to keep rising. Inflation is still a problem. Powell has said, I think the economy can withstand it. So while we get these numbers that kind of back that up for him, it seems to bode for that them going 75 basis points the next time. So yeah, there's a lot of eyes on payrolls tomorrow. You know, Vince ignore Bloomberg has a call here that basically the market's taken care of itself. It's taken care of inflation. And as a result, the fed should and is likely to pause after this next rate hike and that in and of itself is bullish for risk assets. The market's not sure about that. What do you think? Yeah, yeah, I think the market's in a quandary, right? There are some that we're saying, yeah, that's got to slow down. There's a decent amount that say, hey, the fed can get the funds rate to maybe a little under 4%. And then like Vince says they got to kind of slow down, pause. And then there are others that even our analog I keep bringing her up economics. She says fed goes to 5%. The folks at Bridgewater have said fed goes even higher. So I think it's like, I hate to say it, but the truth is in the data. It does inflation really keep rolling over. Does the economy start to falter or not? There's a lot of data that fed's got to sift through and decide. But there is a lot saying if they do another 75 bps that maybe they have to at least slow down the pace, you know? But we have to see. But what about turning around? Yesterday, master said, you know what, in my opinion, we're not going to cut in 2023. And that was kind of the fed's message checks and whole that to the market, like, hey guys, seriously, we're not going to cut next year. You are going to keep raising and then we're going to wait until inflation comes down. Kashkari has been extremely hawkish. And then yesterday, rich Miller had a piece out saying, Powell is now aiming for something much more painful for the economy. Somebody wrote in to me and said, the idea that one of the most powerful arms of the U.S. government is purposely aiming for pain. They're trying to put American people out of work. They're trying to raise unemployment is absolutely insane. If you see jobs starting to miss, if you see unemployment starting to go to 5%, don't they have to cut isn't the political pressure too strong? Well, you know, that's what Elizabeth Warren would say. She's been out saying, you know, we're worried about the fed is going to crush the economy, jobs. That's terrible. But the other argument, and I have to say, I kind of lean to that is what Powell saying is, you know, kind of inflation is a, let's call it a cancer attacks on everyone that if that lasts and it is strong, that's worse than sadly some people losing their jobs. So it's a bit of a push pull that the fed, of course, would love a soft landing, but I think, you know, through the months palace kind of moves away from that. Well, Liz, what's the idea? What's the consensus on how great a tool monetary policy is to fight supply side driven inflation? Well, of course, that's a lot of people say, not a good tool at all. So then what's the point? Well, the fed will say, well, if we slow down, we can affect what we can. That's demand, right? And let's say the supply stuff they have limited control over, fed is emitted that. But if they slow down the man, they'll slow what they can. So yeah, so if a supply issues and the sadly with the war and the energy crisis in Europe, if all that energy sector, all that remains sticky with inflation, then the fed may not be able to bring down that arm, but maybe sadly, maybe it's going to crush the part that they can, which is demanded from the U.S. consumer. So I guess the feeling is they've got to do what they can. But you're right. I mean, and I think they've admitted that. They can't control everything, but I think if they sit on their hands, they're in big trouble. There's enough of this macro stuff. I'm looking at the global ag here down basically 20% from its highs, right? And this month, we're just starting September today, Paul. Huge month for issuance. What's going on on the ground in the real financing markets? Well, first of all, companies need money, right? And summertime is usually a lull for issuance, not a good time. So they tend to come in after the summer's over. So they need some funding. And as bad as things are and it's pretty brutal where the ag has been, like you said, if rates are only going higher, you would kind of want to get now. Yes, get some fixed rates, three and a half may not be as bad as four and a half in a year. I don't know where it's going, but I think that's the thing. They need a certain amount of financing. It looks like rates are just at least for a while going nowhere, but up. So try to get in there when you can. All right, Liz, good stuff. As always, Liz McCormack chief correspondent, global macro markets for Bloomberg news. Matt, I'm looking at our Bloomberg video feed, it looks they are setting up Bloomberg businessweek at flushing meadow to U.S. tennis. These junkets, you know? Well, you could tear a master is the best at doing that. She is. She can interview anybody anywhere anytime, she was recently down at the Panama Canal of all places. And now wherever the cool people are, wherever the beautiful people are, that's where they send Carol and Tim. Well, and this is the place
Bloomberg Radio New York
"liz mccormick" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Is Bloomberg markets. With Paul Sweeney had met Miller. Now she four buy ratings from Wall Street analysts a recession doesn't necessarily mean stocks are gonna tank right away. What's an investor to do here in a rising interest rate environment? Where do you see the most inflation? Breaking market news and inside from Bloomberg experts. We were leaning pretty hard toward equity. To me, this looks like really just a one way street down. Because of all the dislocations, there's always relative value trades that you could be doing. This is Bloomberg markets with Paul Sweeney at Matt Miller. On Bloomberg radio. All right, coming up in this half hour, we're going to check in with Liz McCormick chief car bonnet of global macro markets for Bloomberg news. Talk about that yield curve inversion. Is that a thing plus Ted Smith cofounder and president of Union Square advisers? Let's talk tech, maybe M and a. Maybe some tech M and a. We got any plans for more M and a later this year, but first let's go to great Jared. Bloomberg news is getting a Bloomberg business flash, Greg. Still bouncing around session highs, Paul, jumping more than a one and a half percent with all 11 industry groups rising. The broad rally has been mirrored in the tech heavy NASDAQ as mega cap's apple and alphabet bounced back from yesterday's losses ahead of Netflix. Let me take a look at Apple right now up 1.7%. The S&P 500 is up at 1.8% of 70, the Dow's up 1.6% up 485, and the NASDAQ's up over 2% up 231, the ten year, is down 9 30 seconds to the yield 3.02%. West Texas intermediate codes down a half percent at one O two O 6 a barrel comics goes a little changed at 1711 even per ounce. The dollar Yan one 37 88. The Euro, dollar O two 47, the British found the dollar 2033. Members only clubs are popping up all across Manhattan providing an alternative social club and workspaces New Yorkers are spending less time in the office. More than a dozen membership clubs have opened in the borough since 2003, at least 9 in the past three years, most charged about 5000 or less some charged a whole bunch more. Can you imagine, you know, somebody calls their spouse and says, I work in late tonight. That's a Bloomberg business flash Bloomberg markets continue out. Paul Sweeney Matt Miller would never do that. Never
Bloomberg Radio New York
"liz mccormick" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"That's a Bloomberg business flash Bloomberg markets continues now both Sweeney and Matt Miller. All right, great, Jared. Good stuff. We appreciate it. You know Matt was just calling out here and I end screen the Bloomberg index browser, Bloomberg, U.S. corporate, total return value year to date. -14.6%. Treasuries too, -14.8. I mean, what's going on? And that does in total return. So not that it would have mattered because the coupons are so low, man. Yes. But it's harsh. And look, my mom and dad just retired. This month and I feel for them. I guess I'm going to have to step up. Sure. Is there broke now? You know? All right, Liz McCormick, global fixed income on foreign exchange reporter joins us live here in a Bloomberg, you know, I have to broker studio. So Liz, again, these are numbers. These are performance numbers. Your Friends in a fixed income market have ever seen? Never seen? Yeah, I mean, some of the data how you splice and dice it is like at least the worst first half and kind of modern times call it. I was mentioning to Matt that Deutsche Bank had some great data back to the 1700s, like how bad it was. I mean, people just aren't, most people aren't used to this kind of beating up in bonds. I mean, do people in fixed income today? They try to call the bottom like we hear equity. Investors try to call the Bacchus. Yeah, and this is where I feel like I see the same dichotomy going on as you guys are talking all about and stocks, you know, is this like a bear rally? Is it over? Same thing in bonds. People saying, oh, we've seen the peak and yields, you know, all the fed pricing for hikes is in there, the worst is over. And then other people saying, um, wait a minute, you know? Like 3.5 on the ten year was the highest we've seen, but like, listen, you know, I've been around for a while like the folks at Bridgewater have said to me a few times. We think rates go a lot higher, ten year could go to 4% or more. You know, fed is just got a lot more tightening to do. So there is these battles, I think, in both asset classes, you know? We'll see who wins in the end, right? Maybe next year sometime. I met a guy over the weekend, 83 years old, fascinating guy, and he watches and listens to us every day. He trades bonds every night. So at the end of the day, he'll make a trade, put on a position and then the next day. No one, nobody does that, right? Nobody does that. My father, who I've been doing this for so long, still says to me, can you explain to me again? What a bond is, you know what I mean? All the bond traders, I know all the guys I know who worked in firms on the street have long since retired or quit. Right, exactly. I remember my old boss ward McCarthy saying, years back when there was yield saying, I bought, you know, zero coupons, ages ago, and that put my kids through college. You know, like what used to be such great rates and those are just gone. Well, actually, Scott miner did say he's buying the strips, right? 20 years. Which is kind of jargony, but I guess when you strip out the coupon, you can trade the maturities, and then you can also trade each due date of the coupon. It's like a bullet, you know? It's just like a single coupon, in a sense, just what you get at the end. But yeah, they're stripping and I saw that. And we'll see, I mean, if we were in this era that we're never going to get rates too high again, which I'm not sure I buy into yet. People who bought strips or locked in tens at over 3% are going to be pretty happy if in a couple of years the feds fighting in a recession cutting rates again. Is that, by the way, kind of a consensus that the fed is going to raise rates high enough to fight inflation because now they have to. That's they're locked in and not only is it one of their actual mandates. And then we're going to have a recession in 2023 and they're going to have to cut right back down again. Well, I would say the timing of the recession gets nebulous. A lot of people say late 2023, I've heard a few say, maybe there's enough cash in the system corporations are much better. It could be 2024, but I think in general Matt, you're right that it's fast up front loaded quick and then the fed is going to have to eventually not too long be cutting rates again because they're trying to manage in pal said he's gone from, you know, like soft landing soft dish to saying, well, we could have a slow. He's trying, but you raise rates this fast, and I know there's not a lot of floating rate debt out there, but I have a home equity line of credit. And I was like, oh, they raised that rate pretty darn fast. You know what I mean? And not only that. Joel levington wrote a piece about the automakers. Now they're facing a $145 billion wall of debt. And it's not like, you know, they can just hold it. Right. They're constantly rolling over. So now they're going to look at 250, 300 basis points of increased cost. This, by the way, adds to inflation because they've got to pass that along to the customer, but it's tough for companies as well. Yeah, I think everyone, you're going to feel this very quickly. Now the fed said, we're really watching financial conditions, which is kind of nebulous, you know, how tight do they have to get, you know, not just what's the hard rate, the fed funds has to get to, but that's what they're watching. How does this filter through, look at mortgage rates over 6%. You know, they seem like so low for so long. The housing market has an imploded yet, but for once, not that I'm looking to buy, but you see on Zillow finally, price reduction. We didn't see that forever. So I think it's going to be no sale. I know people who wanted to sell and now they can't so they got to rent. Yeah, and you know what rents are crazy, right? Going up in price, the leases up, I've heard so many people complaining, oh, the lounge putting up my rank 25. Rent is too damn high. The rent is too damn high. So if you move, is that another reason to move the Austin Texas or? I don't think pricing is good in Austin Texas. I don't think it is either. You don't get a special rates because it's Texas. So where do you have to go? Columbus, Ohio. It's a great place to live in very affordable. People are just wonderful. And they play football. No accent. It's the only place in the country where there's absolutely no regional accents. They use people from the great state of Ohio often for newscasters. And Matt Miller, case in point. All right, Liz McCormick. Thanks so much for joining us, Liz McCormack. She covers all things global fixed income, foreign exchange reporters. She does it all for Bloomberg news and most important. She is in the Bloomberg director broker studio today, so we appreciate that. Looking at these markets here, just a little bit of red on the screen, not going to oversell here
Bloomberg Radio New York
"liz mccormick" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"To me this looks like really just a one way street down Because of all the dislocations there's always relative value trades that you could be doing This is Bloomberg markets with Paul Sweeney at Matt Miller On Bloomberg radio All right risk markets bouncing back on this Monday morning So we're going to focus on these markets first with Liz McCormick chief correspondent global macro markets for Bloomberg news Get her thoughts as she looks across the landscape here Robert stimson also is joining a CIO and portfolio manager for oak associate funds What is he telling his clients with these markets we've seen so far year to date in 2022 Right now let's go to Craig Jarrett get a Bloomberg business flash reset Pretty good surge over the last half hour Paul with big banks leading the gains in the S&P this comes after JPMorgan Chase and company's chief Jamie Dimon said storm clouds over the U.S. economy may dissipate The Euro is higher after European Central Bank chief Christine Lagarde said higher interest rates are coming in July Patrick Armstrong and purim tells Bloomberg he thinks Scott stocks as of this morning are at or near the bottom As long as you don't see a real earnings recession and I don't think that happens unless you have an economic recession it'll come down to a power wants to do He's got 60 basis points hiking in June and July If he assesses the lay of the land and starts to ease and accepts higher inflation rather than provoking a recession I could see around these levels being a bottom for the S&P S&P 500 is now up from the earlier bottom of 1.1% up 44 the Dow Jones Industrial Average is at 1.6% up 509 and the NASDAQ is up one half of 1% of 60 The tenure is down 1430 seconds the yield 2.83% What's next is intermediate crude is down four tenths of a percent of 109 83 a barrel comic goes up a half a percent in 1858 20 announced The dollar yen won 27 68 The Euro a dollar 6 6 6 The British founded dollar 25 73 That's a Bloomberg business flash Bloomberg markets continues now Paul Sweeney and kitty Gupta All right Greg Jared.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"liz mccormick" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Last month According to data from castle systems and office security firm that records workers coming and going to my measuring bad swipes into skyscrapers and corporate campuses which begs the question what are Austin office workers doing the other you know what 40% of the time when they're not in the office I would posit that they're probably a green hall in the hill country Watching the bands play and dancing the two step across Texas That's a Bloomberg business flash Bloomberg markets continue now with Paul Sweeney and someone who knows about the Texas two step That's pretty cool I'm gonna say you threw that in just for me didn't you Greg Jarrett Yes I did This is the big take the best of Bloomberg's in depth original reporting from around the globe This is a really fast moving story Of course a lot of outrage among investors This is so fascinating The market shut down in a way it's never done before That's going to have consequences for years to come The big take on Bloomberg radio Bloomer markets is brought to you by Commonwealth high supporting more than 2000 independent financial advisers with the solutions they need to grow with thriving business Commonwealth Go where you grow visit Commonwealth dot com to learn more We've got a treat here today Don't we agree Liz McCormick in the Bloomberg interactive broker studio one of our top reporters and she's got the big take story Liz McCormick chief correspondent for global macro markets and Bloomberg news joins us with the big take story Again Liz thanks so much for joining us here The fed's raising rates I'm going all cash I mean what's going to happen I know It's been a while Are you scary Some are used to low rates for their whole lifetime I won't say that I am I'm dating myself but yeah the fed's raising rates and me and some colleagues wrote in this big take It's not just rates that are going up but the fed and other leading central banks are kind of pulling back another punch bowl which is their balance sheet All those bonds they bought which was kind of the second whammy to help bring rates down and keep us from a protracted recession after 2020 the pandemic is all going in the opposite direction So it's a little bit mind bending Liz I have to ask about the balance sheet We asked Priya mister this earlier and she was like yeah nobody knows what's going on What is going on I love Priya And if she doesn't know but you know I kind of follow our Craig Torres and his stories And the minutes from the fed's last meeting they kind of laid out let's see if they surprise us that they're going to pretty quickly go to about 95 billion a month 60 billion treasuries up to 30 billion MBS rolling off each month And that's about a trillion a year at that pace So we think they're going to announce at Wednesday's meeting and say maybe they start in June And that's much quicker than they did in 2017 to 2019 when they were rolling back the balance sheet So it's faster Plus we have other central banks rolling back which we didn't have back then So to be clear that means when you say rolling back that means they're not actively selling it on the market they're just not reinvesting Right So right now when they mature they reinvest them with the treasury Let's talk just treasuries And what they're going to do is further treasuries They're just going to let them mature and go away They won't buy new ones MBS works a little bit different It depends on how fast people prepay their mortgages but that they want to the MBS holdings to kind of siphon down as well And that was one of the fears right That they would sell on the market which is a completely different dynamic Right But it's kind of complicated because they have flicked at that down the line Again MBS works a little different It's not like it matures on their balance sheet It's when people prepay And if rates go up you know how people don't prepay their mortgages because when they're going down everyone's like oh I can get a better mortgage rate And when they're going up people do that more slowly So the fed at the end has said possibly down the road we might have to sell some of our mortgage backed securities If they don't kind of go away fast enough But that's further down the line you know Do you think 75 basis points is still on the table for a move here Yeah so 50s a lock at this meeting I think where you know they're looking at maybe the markets pricing kind of some chance of 75 is that the next meeting So this is may then June But basically overall it's amazing There's about 250 basis points of hikes priced in through just the end of the year And that's pretty fast for the fed We haven't seen that kind of pace in a long time Do you think it's still valid or is it a valid issue that the fed is behind the curve I'm not sure how you define that but behind the curve Well who was it James bullard who's been very boisterous we know I think he said hey we're not but one of the fed officials said we're not as behind the curve as people think It's water under the bridge in a way now because they're really trying to catch up But.