17 Burst results for "Lisa Shallots"
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lisa shallots" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Today on Apple, Spotify and everywhere you get your podcasts. And I'm Denise Pellegrini in the Bloomberg Newsroom. Tracking developments in Russia for you and as we've been reporting former Putin ally and head of Russia's private military company Wagner Group, Yevgeny Przok and is heading to exile in Belarus after that deal we've been telling you about to call off his mercenary march on Moscow. The short military rebellion shows cracks in Putin's authority according to Secretary of State Antony Blinken. He says the situation in Russia is still developing but the armed uprising by private troops fighting in Ukraine shows cracks are forming in Putin's leadership. Here's Blinken. A direct challenge to Putin's authority surfacing very publicly the notion that this war, this aggression by Russia was pursued being under false pretenses, the notion that Ukraine or NATO somehow presented a threat to Russia that it had to deal with militarily, that's now much more out in the open than it's been. And Blinken there on ABC's here This Week, on Bloomberg Radio. Possible deal in the chip industry Apollo is leading a billion dollar debt deal to invest in chip maker Wolfspeed. That's according to the information citing a person with direct knowledge of the matter. And the report says a deal could be announced in the coming days. Investors also watching for U .S. economic data coming this week on economic growth and inflation. Lisa Shallot, chief investment officer for wealth management at Morgan Stanley, says the Fed is right to eye more rate hikes. I believe that the threats that were not out of the woods on inflation are legitimate and that you know under Jerome Powell's leadership I do think that the jawboning that he's doing, the hawkish tone that he's taking, is the right one at the current moment. And Shallot there on Bloomberg Radio. The Fed meantime preparing to unveil the results of its annual stress test. Wednesday, That's on Bloomberg's Karen Moscow has more on that. The tests examined a bank's ability to withstand a crisis. The yearly exams are being closely watched this time after three US lenders failed since March and questions linger about ability the of other institutions to withstand extreme stress. The tests were put in place after the 2008 financial crisis and for the first time the test will feature an exploratory market shock to the trading books of the largest and most complex banks. Thank you Karen. And you may have seen them on your social media feeds now and they've filed for an IPO. Bloomberg's Leslie Lotto has more. Beauty and tech company Audity, the company that runs Il Makiage and Spoiled Child has filed to go public. The Israel based company is planning to trade on NASDAQ with the ticker ODD or odd. The company was started in 2018 by siblings Oren Holtzman and Sharron Holtzman -Irelle. The company uses data and AI to develop brands and make tailored product recommendations for customers. The first quarter of the year brought the company nearly 166 million dollars in revenue. Thank you Leslie. News And Global 24 hours a day powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. My name is Mercedes Pellegrini and this is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, global our look at the top stories in the coming week from our Daybreak anchors all around the world. And straight ahead on the program, time for another big round of stress tests for the nation's big banks. I'm Tom Busby in New York. I'm Stephen Carroll London in where we're looking ahead to the gathering of many of the world's top central bankers in the Portuguese hilltop town of Sintra. I'm Ryan Curtis in Hong Kong. What will it take to revive the animal spirits in China? I'm Peely Lyons in Washington where the end of the second fundraising quarter is rapidly approaching for presidential candidates. That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend on Bloomberg 1130 New York Bloomberg 99 .1 Washington DC Bloomberg 106 .1 Boston Bloomberg 960 San Francisco DAB Digital Radio London Sirius XM 119 and around the world on Bloombergradio .com and via the Bloomberg Business Act. Good day I'm to you Tom Busby and we begin today's
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lisa shallots" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"A look at China first because Doug highlighted that. It's been three weeks in a row that we saw lower trading in the golden the NASDAQ golden dragon China index. And we did have that big drop in the last session of nearly 2% for the CSI 300. At the moment, China futures trading in Singapore are up a little, a little under a tenth of 1%. So nothing too exciting there. The streets times index in Singapore is just opened, it's down about two tenths and this fits with the flavor of the morning really across the equity markets, the tye X is down about four tenths of 1%. We've seen weakness this morning and soul as well. The cost be off about a third of a percent. The one market that has shown a little bit of strength is Japan in Tokyo, the nikkei has advanced about three tenths of a percent to move up of 84 points, and we do have this interesting sort of look at how the golden week holidays coming up in May might affect things generally, not just in China, but also around the region. Overseas ticket searches for a golden week are 120% of the level seen back in 2019. So that's the pre-pandemic period. Back then, some 170 million Chinese holiday to broad before the pandemic struck. So it may mean that some of the muted nature of the reopening in China really start to gather some steam. Once we get to those holidays coming up in early May. A couple of other quick numbers for you, the offshore Chinese currency, the CNN, is trading at 6 89 44 against the greenback. And the yield on the ten year treasury here is 3.56%. Doug to you, Brian, thanks, swell, stateside, it'll be a heavy week of quarterly earnings, a 170 companies of those in the S&P 500 are scheduled to report Bloomberg's Charlie pellet has a preview. Technology will be in focus when we hear from Microsoft meta platforms and alphabet, investors are continuing to sift through corporate earnings, looking for comments about pricing power and the outlook. Lisa shallot is chief investment officer for wealth management at Morgan Stanley. So far, earnings have been mixed at best. I think that, you know, certainly we've had a sector mix issue here that has prevented a material meltdown, but we've had some big names missing and missing on fundamental things like demand, like pricing, like margins. This week we hear from a wide range of companies, including General Motors, caterpillar ExxonMobil, GE Mastercard, Visa, PepsiCo, UBS, and UPS. In New York, Charlie pellet, Bloomberg, daybreak, Asia. Bed Bath & Beyond has filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy, the retailer will close stores and liquidate after its turnaround plans failed. We've got more from Bloomberg, Susanna Palmer. The retailer that sells all kinds of stuff for your home will begin liquidating its 360 Bed Bath & Beyond a stores, and 120 bye bye baby shops. This, while also searching for a buyer for some or all of its assets, Bed Bath & Beyond's crisis got worse this year, starting in January when it floated the idea of restructuring its debts. A last minute lifeline from the hedge fund Hudson bay capital management and an effort to sell more shares in the company didn't help a unit of 6th street partners is providing Bed Bath & Beyond with a $240 million loan to help it fund itself in bankruptcy. Susanna Palmer Bloomberg daybreak Asia. Well, this week's meeting of the bank of Japan will feature a review of those policies taken over the past decades, the story from Bloomberg's Joanne Wong. The BOJ would examine what's worked well for Japan's economy in the past, it will be done with hopes of the Central Bank can come up with effective policies under newly appointed governor caswell oeda. That's according to the sankey newspaper, the BOJ is expected to consider the past quarter century of Japan's deflationary economy, and the report said the review could go back as far as about 30 years, when Japan's bubble economy burst. The BOJ has employed unconventional tools since adopting a zero interest rate policy in 1999. Earlier this month, whereas said in his inaugural speech as governor that the banks yield curve control and negative interest rates were appropriate for now, but he added that he was open to the idea of a longer term policy review. The bank of Japan's next policy meeting will be on April 27th and 28th. In Hong Kong, Joanne Wong, Bloomberg, Debra, Asia. 6 minutes past the hour now. Let's get a check of global news
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lisa shallots" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Dot com and the Bloomberg business app. This is Bloomberg radio. President Biden says he will continue to stand by the FDA's evidence based approval of the abortion pill mifepristone following the Supreme Court's decision to allow the drug to stay on the market. The 7 two vote came after the court extended a temporary stay on a Texas federal judge's ruling to halt production and distribution of the drug. The family of the old national bank shooter wants to make sure the gun he used is legally destroyed. The sturgeon family said they were aghast when they learned Kentucky law mandates the assault rifle used in the attack will one day be auctioned off. They said they're working with Louisville police and the U.S. bureau of alcohol tobacco and firearms to ensure it is legally destroyed. Another poll is giving Donald Trump a strong lead over likely GOP presidential contender Ron DeSantis, a new Wall Street Journal poll shows the former president with 51% support from likely Republican voters and the Florida governor at 38% support other GOP candidates trail far behind, including former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley with 5% support and South Carolina senator Tim Scott, with 3%. I'm Michael kassner. The Department of Justice is joining an investigation into Southwest Airlines on Friday, the DoJ announced it will join the transportation department and the FAA in their investigation after millions of travelers were delayed during the recent holiday season. Officials say the number of vehicles parked on the top deck of the parking garage that collapsed in Lower Manhattan Tuesday was under the max allowed, Joe esposito with the department of buildings says the certificate of occupancy from the 1950s shows the garage was justified with the number of SUVs. Pretty similar in weight to the cause from the 50s, because those 50s cards were all heavy metal. Officials are investigating the cause but think old age of the building and number of vehicles played a part in the collapse. I'm Brian shook. A family member is in custody after a mother and daughter were found brutally murdered inside their New Jersey home Wednesday. Liz Warner reports. Cops in rozelle say ten year old Kelsey Morrison and her mother 45 year old Keisha Morrison were found dead in a horrific crime scene after the little girl did not show up at school. Keisha's husband Gary discovered a bloody axe in a bedroom which union county authorities believe was used to kill his wife and daughter. Garry Morrison's half brother ever Roy Morrison was later arrested in Maryland, cops say he was driving the family's stolen vehicle. Lyft plans to lay off 1200 or more employees in a new round of job cuts. That's according to The Wall Street Journal which reported the layoffs could affect 30% or more of the ride sharing companies workforce. Lyft doesn't count its drivers as employees. Sources tell the outlet that the move could help lift slash half of its costs as its new CEO looks to reduce costs and improve drivers earnings. Lift laid off about 700 employees late last year. A popular Virginia amusement park is requiring some guests bring a chaperone, Richard stelling explains king's dominions start to new policy tomorrow for kids up to 15 years old. They'll need an adult with them who is at least 21 in order to visit after 4 p.m. officials cited increase of unruly and inappropriate behavior at several locations nationwide over the last two years. Those who break the rules will be escorted out. The park just north of Richmond is open Fridays through Sundays until Memorial Day weekend when the 7 day week begins. I am Richard stelling. Russia is premiering the first feature film shot in space. The challenge was shot on the International Space Station in October of 2021 when Russia sent an actor and a film director to the ISS for a 12 day shoot. The film is about a surgeon who sent to the space station to save an injured cosmonaut. I'm Brian shook. And I'm Charlie palette. At Bloomberg world headquarters, we check markets all day long here at Bloomberg, a losing week for the S&P 500 Index and up Friday, stocks edged higher amid mix corporate earnings and as traders sift through the latest data for clues about the outlook for inflation and the fed's policy path. Phil Orlando is chief equity strategist at Federated Hermes. You know, the near term picture is inflation still seems a little sticky. Everyone's debating does the fed have one more hike or two more hikes and do they go on pause or do we have this immaculate pivot? Phil Orlando of Federated Hermes. While the next Federal Reserve rate decision is May 3rd, will it be the fed's last rate hike in this cycle? Lisa shallot is chief investment officer for wealth management at Morgan Stanley. We're in this period where the market, particularly the equity markets are just defying fed guidance and fed rhetoric. And as a result, I think to prove their resolve, there is not a zero chance that they keep going. Lisa shallot of Morgan Stanley. Industry data suggests U.S. business activity could be perking up this month. That story from Bloomberg's Vinnie del giudice. The S&P Global flash index covering service providers and manufacturers rose to an 11 month high, led by stepped up demand. If the trend continues, S&P says inflation could flare up, even so a key Federal Reserve report this week suggests otherwise the baseball economic survey warns tougher loan standards stemming from the banking crisis pose a threat to America's economy. If any doubt should ice Bloomberg radio. Tesla is increasing prices of its Model S and X vehicles in the U.S. after steep markdowns early this year took a toll on profitability and the carmakers shares. The adjustments come two days after Tesla lowered prices on its much higher volume model Y SUV and model three sedan for the second time this month. So what about Elon Musk's strategy? Nancy tango is the chief investment officer of laffer, tengler investments. What I think is important about Elon Musk is that he seems to be always going where the puck is going, not where it's been. And so the price kept cutting and then he announced price increases. That's going to drive people to the ecosystem. And I think much like Apple, that's a really smart strategy. Nancy tango of laffer tango investments. Tesla, today by 1.3%. S&P climbed three points up one tenth of 1% the Dow up 22 also up one tenth of 1% NASDAQ off 12 that to a gain of one tenth of 1%. Global news powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. I'm Charlie palette. This is Bloomberg. From Bloomberg news and iHeartRadio, it's the big take. I'm Wes cassava. Today the downside of the algorithm that powers TikTok's
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lisa shallots" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"You look at this Dunning-Kruger effect, is this something you could apply to the AI chat GPT conversation right now? In 5 years are we going to look back at the stock chart and say, this is the moment before the peak of mount stupid? You know, I don't even think we're going to have to wait for 5 years. I think there's going to be is suspect, but I do not know. So I'll avoid done in Kruger myself. And it's like Fight Club. The first rule of duning Kruger club is you don't know your a member of the Dunning-Kruger club, which we all are. But I suspect that we're going to see a huge advantage to either Microsoft or someone else versus Google, sooner rather than later, and the question then becomes who adjusts, you know, it's sort of like halftime during the Super Bowl, the teams go into the locker room, they make some adjustments to their play and they come out and continue. It's the second half that matters, not necessarily the first half. And so it's really hard to try and pick winners and losers, but I would not at all be surprised if we look back 5 years. Hansen say, wow, we thought this guy was this company was doing great and that company was really well behind the ball and it turns out like the automobile industry likes the television industry like the computer industry. There's a land rush and then a handful of talented and somewhat lucky survivors are what's left over after the smoke clears. Did you see the Lisa shallot commentary or story on the Bloomberg? She's saying they're a huge disconnect and basically the technicals are beating fundamentals here, which is why we have this rally from the bottom of October. I'm just thinking about that because Tesla climbed to the peak of mount stupid and was only very briefly in the valley of despair. Now it's back up, double from its low, and it doesn't seem to be based on any fundamentals. I only use Tesla because we're talking cars, but you know it could be anything, and all the trash from last year is now rallied so hard at the beginning of January at the beginning of 2023 in January and February. Does that make sense to you? Yeah, but keep in mind, Tesla might have doubled from, I want to say the end of 2022, I can't really, I'm trying to figure out where that's right, yes. Where the peak is, but it's still 50% off its highs. It's been cut in half since its highs. All right, it's not down. And here's the math thing that people kind of forget. You know, a stock's at a hundred and it loses 40% and it goes to 60, a rally of 40% back only takes you up to 84. Yes. You need a much more substantial rally of about 70, almost 70% to recover back to what you started. So when you have a stock down 68, 72% and you can look at peloton and you can look at arc and you could go look at Amazon, you could look at all the stocks that really got shellacked in 2022. That's the story of all 23 Barry, unfortunately, that's all we have time for. Barry rittle is there talking to us about the Dunning-Kruger effect this is Bloomberg. Some bonds last a lifetime. Some bonds inspire confidence, and some you grow to rely on. These are the bonds worth investing in. For
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lisa shallots" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Thanks very much. Pretty good. I should point out in studio with me, Paul Sweeney, out all week. And we are looking at a market rally today that so many people have worn shouldn't be. Okay, it's not a big, huge jump, but 7 tenths of 1%. Still, Lisa shallot came out and talked about from Morgan Stanley talked about the big disconnect and a lot of people are warning that this is House of Cards. Let's bring an Abigail Doolittle to talk about what's going on. Abigail I thought about you as I read the, I can't remember last night or early this morning in stock story because they said this is a story, this rally is built on the technicals and the fundamentals speak against it. So that definitely causes me to chuckle a little bit because I would say that it's built on both the technicals and the fundamentals, but those who follow the fundamentals more closely and they think their interpretation of the fundamentals points to stocks going down, but stocks are going higher. They're going to say, oh, that's a technical rally. You know, look, overall, we have an uptrend on the year. So that is the technical, but there's a reason for it. And I think that the reason is that the narrative is we're looking more likely at a soft landing. Stocks and bonds are digesting the idea that the fed is in hiking mode. We just got through another earnings season, you know, GDP, the data has been pretty good. The next point that we're really looking for is next Tuesday, CPI. Because this is the deal. We had this phenomenal jobs report. That suggests the economy is good. My own little being out and about, I mean, I see no signs of a recession anywhere you go, whether it's that mall in Westchester, which has the most high end stores ever, if you're on Fifth Avenue, or 57th street here, it is crazy busy. Wait, do you mean the Westchester or in White Plains or ridge hill? I think about the sprain brook. I am talking about the Westchester with Gucci and rivian. I mean, that's a pretty high end mall. And it's not happening lately. A lot of store closures on Madison. So that has actually been the case for a long time. And there's tax situations where for some landlords that actually makes more sense to have it sit empty as opposed to having. But I agree with you. I've been puzzled by that for more than a decade as opposed when I used to walk up Madison Avenue. I'm like, how is this possible that the best shopping avenue in the world has all of these sales and empty stores, and yet the economy is going great. But in any case, in terms of this current economy, I think that's a big thing that everybody's looking for next is going to be the CPI report out next week. I believe we're looking for 6.2% down from 6.5% suggesting that peak inflation is still in place. And if I think that there was one assumption around that jobs report that if jobs came in so hot like that, it means that inflation is going to go higher, not necessarily. We still have oil below $80 per barrel commodities are in the downswing. We don't know that one jobs report is going to move into the inflation picture and heat it up in such a way that the fed would have to hike more than already expected. They're indicated they're hiking. That's been a little bit of a disconnect, but bottom line, I think that the fundamentals are better than some out there think and the stock markets reflecting it. Well, tourists lock over at Apollo has been very vocal about a no landing scenario. Is that something the markets are actively considering is that why we're seeing all the screen on the screen? Yeah, I don't even know what to think of a no landing scenario. What does that even mean? I know, because I literally just give our audience a little contest here plus match. And it's basically a concept here that there's going to be no recession, no slowdown. We're just going to get out of this and there's going to be no soft landing or hard landing. There's going to be a no landing. There won't be a landing at all. Oh, that's what. That's what Abigail was saying. Yeah, and I think that I actually think that that's a soft landing because and the reason I think that there is a landing if you think about it in the pandemic, we went down and then the fed and the other central banks aggressively took the cockpit of the airplane aggressively higher. We went up and then we went down and now I think instead of going crash landing into the ground, now we are going to have some sort of a soft landing. So I think that one way to look at it is last year we had a really difficult year for stocks. The S&P 500 is a forecasting tool. It looks out 6 months ahead, so maybe that weakness there was a little bit of whatever there is not even minor recession, but just a little bit of a slowdown and now picking up. I think that that I think last year's volatility captured it. And if we had had this conversation 6 months ago from a pure technical standpoint and the technicals in my mind at least and I think a lot of people would say are early because it's all the information going in earlier if you assume buyers want to buy as low as possible and sellers sell as high as possible, it was a different picture and then all of a sudden, October, November, it started to change as people reassess whether or not it was as bad out there as folks thought it would be. So in terms of the company news today, what are you watching? Obviously Disney is a big mover. Yeah, that's such an interesting story because that's one earnings report where it really didn't have anything to do with the numbers of how to do everything with bob Iger coming back. What was he gonna say? He's talking about a restructuring $5.5 billion worth of cost savings 7000 jobs. Also very interesting. It just came out. Nelson peltz is now dropping his proxy fight because he basically got what he wants because bob Iger also said that he's going to go to the board she approval to have some sort of modest dividend reinstated. So it's interesting to see all the help wanted three board seats. He wanted but he doesn't really need them anymore because he now has a buyer there doing the things that he wanted to do. That's good because he wasn't going to get him. Yeah, well, who knows? He did pretty well with Kraft Heinz. He has a pretty good history. But it's interesting to see them. It's interesting to see such a flashy battle kind of go away where it was just worked out where both sides got what they want. Mattel, on the other hand, not so much. That stock is down sharply. They put up a poor quarter, so apparently toy sales, not quite as strong. And
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lisa shallots" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"By Memphis police is out. It starts with cops surrounding his car and throwing him to the ground with Nichols saying I didn't do anything. Nichols father Rodney wells spoke to MSNBC shortly after the video was released. What I would want to say to them is the best with the wrong kid. But you know, as my wife said, we pray for them too. We pray for their families. Meantime, three people are being arrested in New York City during protest for Nichols, hundreds of people across the country are out tonight, protesting. Groups have gathered in Washington, D.C., Atlanta, Philadelphia, and Boston. Notebooks, President Biden wrote in during his time as vice president are among the items seized by the FBI during a search of his Delaware home last week. A source familiar with the investigation told NBC News that writings in the notebooks showed potential references to classified info. I'm Brian shook. And I'm Charlie palette. At Bloomberg world headquarters. On up week for the Dow, the S&P and NASDAQ NASDAQ this week was up 4.3% up four weeks in a row. The S&P up two and a half percent. Today, Wall Street brushed off disappointing outlooks from some of the world's largest tech companies Intel was down 6.4%. Lisa Charlotte is chief investment officer for wealth management at Morgan Stanley. You know, we used to say that what happens to GM happens to the U.S. economy. I would say we're in a world given the ubiquity of semiconductors that what happens to Intel haven't see the economy. Lisa shallot of Morgan Stanley and speaking of the economy inflation is moderating, paving the way for smaller Federal Reserve rate hikes this year. More from Bloomberg's Vinnie del giudice. There's evidence the fed's aggressive rate hikes are starting to contain inflation. The fed's favorite measure of household prices registered the smallest increase in more than a year in December rising 4.4%. It had top 5% late 2021 and early 2022, fed officials may now reduce the size of forthcoming rate hikes to a quarter of a point. If any doubt should ice Bloomberg radio, as for consumer sentiment Anastasia, so is chief investment strategist at I capital, and she spoke this morning with our Tom Keene. The spirit is, it is buoyant. I mean, you look, you go through the airport, you go through the lounges. I mean, I think people are gainfully employed and they're still wage growth to be had and we're wondering why is there not as softer path of retail sales because people are gainfully employed. And sure, there's some jobs that may be changing hands, but those layoffs are now resulting in higher unemployment. I capitals Anastasia amarosa and on the topic of retail, Amazon will be among the big tech companies reporting next week. Joe Feldman is senior managing director at Telsey advisory group. We still very much like Amazon and we actually think this could be a very nice recovery year for them in terms of better profitability, especially as the year progresses and they start to lap some of the challenges that they faced in 2022. Joe Feldman of Telsey advisory group, he has a $125 price target on the stock according to Bloomberg data and an outperform rating. Today, Amazon shares advanced 3% to finish the week at one O two 24. Next week, by the way, very busy week for tech earnings in addition to Amazon, we'll be hearing from the likes of Apple, alphabet, meta platforms, and Qualcomm. S&P today up ten points a gain of .25%, the Dow up 28 high by one tenth of 1% NASDAQ up one O 9 gain of 1%. Global news, 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. I'm Charlie palette. This is Bloomberg. Bloomberg radio
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lisa shallots" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Experience tree falls and mudslides. I'm Phil hut, Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh says he's optimistic about the state of the high court, while speaking at Notre-Dame law school earlier this week, Kavanaugh, a conservative, said he and his fellow justices have great relations. He praised liberal justice, ketanji Brown Jackson, who was confirmed last summer, saying she's off to a great start. Data shows New York City subway crime is trending downward, the details from Scott Pringle. Subway crime was way up in 2022, but stats show it drops significantly at the end of the year, major subway crimes down 16% in October through December compared to the same time frame the prior year. Mayor Eric Adams credits a new program in October that ramped up police presence in the system. This system will be safe, it would be functional and it will be free from the disorder that we inherited. Governor Kathy hochul points to a December customer satisfaction survey that shows an 18% jump in riders saying they feel safe. There's this greater sense of security again, not my words, but the words of our valued writers. News anchors, TJ Holmes, and Amy robach are set to leave GMA three. The two were taken off the air after news of their romantic relationship became public, ABC News launched an internal investigation and a contentious mediation session was held yesterday that resulted in the two anchors leaving the network. President Kim Godwin told employees the relationship had become an internal and external distraction. I'm Brian shook. And I'm Charlie pellet. At Bloomberg world headquarters. On up week for the Dow, the S&P and NASDAQ NASDAQ this week was up 4.3% up four weeks in a row. The S&P up two and a half percent. Today, Wall Street brushed off disappointing outlooks from some of the world's largest tech companies Intel was down 6.4%. Lisa Charlotte is chief investment officer for wealth management at Morgan Stanley. You know, we used to say that what happens to GM happens to the U.S. economy. I would say we're in a world given the ubiquity of semiconductors that what happens to Intel haven't see the economy. Lisa shallot of Morgan Stanley and speaking of the economy inflation is moderating, paving the way for smaller Federal Reserve rate hikes this year. More from Bloomberg's Vinny del giudice. There's evidence the fed's aggressive rate hikes are starting to contain inflation. The fed's favorite measure of household prices registered the smallest increase in more than a year in December rising 4.4%. It had top 5% late 2021 and early 2022, fed officials may now reduce the size of forthcoming rate hikes to a quarter of a point. If any doubt should ice Bloomberg radio, as for consumer sentiment Anastasia, so as chief investment strategist at I capital and she spoke this morning with our Tom Keene. The spirit is it is buoyant. I mean, you look, you go through the airport to go through the lounges. I mean, I think people are gainfully employed. And they're still wage growth to be had and we're wondering, why is there not a softer path of retail sales? Because people are gainfully employed. And sure, there's some jobs that may be changing hands, but those layoffs are not resulting in higher unemployment. I capitals Anastasia more so and on the topic of retail, Amazon will be among the big tech companies reporting next week. Joe Feldman is senior managing director at Telsey advisory group. We still very much like Amazon and we actually think this could be a very nice recovery year for them in terms of better profitability, especially as the year progresses and they start to lap some of the challenges that they faced in 2022. Joe Feldman of Telsey advisory group, he has a $125 price target on the stock, according to Bloomberg data and an outperform rating. Today, Amazon shares advanced 3% to finish the week at one O two 24. Next week, by the way, very busy week for tech earnings in addition to Amazon, we'll be hearing from the likes of Apple, alphabet, meta platforms, and Qualcomm. S&P today up ten points a gain of .25%, the Dow up 28 high by one tenth of 1% NASDAQ up one O 9 gain of 1%. Global news, 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. I'm Charlie palette. This is Bloomberg
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lisa shallots" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Games. That's the private equity investors. Yeah, I saw that and I'm like, oh man, come on. Wait, are you are you actually next games fan? I do. I like this. Do you like playing? I can't even lift a fork. How am I going to play in the eggs? I want to ask you about the fork now, not necessarily the extra. Something I'm wondering. I've seen my kids watch people playing video games. It's anathema tomato understand why you would watch someone else play. eSports game. That's eSports. eSports. That's huge game. That's a huge business as well. Walt Disney Company up a little bit today on that news. So we'll see there. But Dow Jones industrials actually turn a little bit positively. So here we go. Michael Barr, thank you so much for joining us. I don't know where this tape's gonna end up. Like I always, this is what Matt Miller and I say. Markets usually up in the morning when Matt Miller and I are in charge. And then we hand it off to Carol master and Tim sydenham and the afternoon and they let the gains go. So I can put the blame on them usually, but today hopefully we can push a little bit into the green here this morning. Is that what's going on? Exactly. Yeah, I don't know. I think at this point, it's sort of this counterintuitive moment where if the market rallies too much, that's going to make the fed come back in and say, all right, we're going to raise another 75 in December and then that's going to send things tumbling again. And it's sort of this Lisa shallot of Morgan Stanley call it a roller coaster to nowhere. That's kind of how it feels about it. Lisa shell is very good. Crude oil, finding a little bit of a bit out there up 1.4%, $86, 50 cent. WTI crude. This is a Bloomberg pursuits look at luxury. Nestlé's blue bottled coffee is known for meticulously brewed smooth espresso and the crowds that line up to buy it. Now the famed Bay Area brewers are getting into the instant coffee business. Development took three years. A 1.7 ounce jar of blue bottle freeze dried espresso, which provides 12 servings of coffee, while sell for $25. When the World Cup kicks off November 20th, Qatar will be the only team in tournament history to play without ever having competitively qualified for it, since hosts get automatic spots. The resource rich country has been criticized for spending its way into soccer legitimacy. India's second richest man Mukesh Ambani is building upon his Dubai property empire with a $163 million beachside villa smashing his prior record for the city's most expensive presidential real estate deal within a matter of months. The billionaire has been snapping up properties overseas, increasingly looking westward for second homes. I'm Anna O'Day, Bloomberg radio, cyber
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lisa shallots" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Taiwanese people are not willing to back it down to a bully. Taipei based Tim copper and on the ramifications of speaker Pelosi's visit to Taiwan and later, David fickling on the reopening of the port of Odessa for grain shipments. But first to markets and John authors. Sujan, quite the week. Yes. Wouldn't have thought so. The first week in August, but here we are. Let's talk about false, all clears. I think so. Certainly what you've seen was I thought an extreme overreaction to the notion that the fed was ready to pivot already that in some ways that the battle against inflation was already won. Now, it's true that markets are about what's happening in the future. They're not about what's just happened. But when it comes to fighting inflation rates do have to go up and that has to tighten economic activity before inflation is beaten. You can't just skip those steps. You have to wait for them to work out in the real economy before you trade accordingly. Are you saying it's almost like a market is trying to trade both things at the same time? Yes, there might be very clear economic logic behind the notion that rates are going to go up. Then the economy will slow and then rates will come down again. We've all read our economic textbooks and you do want to guard against the future but you can't thereby assume that you can already buy bonds as though there's nothing to worry about. Right, and mainly the top term. There's a lot of problems. And you point out, Lisa shallots, points, and also at Hyman's points of whom are excellent market commentators and should never be ignored, right? Yes. We're in a genuinely unprecedented situation in an era of international finance and unprecedented global pandemic any number of possibilities are sensibly open. Nobody can confidently say that anybody else is wrong about this, but there are very strong forces pushing bonds in both directions. And I think that's an important point because it is both directions. It's not like it's an ambivalent market here. It's a market that's very convinced of two different things. That's why the universe. Yeah, and that's why the yield curve is a little bit like a slinky these days, but also. Because Nancy Pelosi decided to complicate things if you want to put it that way this week. Yes, I think from the cold blooded view of a macro trader. The potential Taiwan strait issue adds up potentially to the Ukraine war plus the trade war with China. All at once only worse. It's absolutely not what anybody wants to see happen. And so the degree of saber rattling ahead of her trip, which I have to say, I don't quite understand what the reason for doing it. This week was. Was very scary. I think you could see we had on Tuesday, we had a remarkable rise in bond yields, IE people sold their bonds, and in large part that was because there had been a somewhat extreme rush to the havens people were wondering whether the Chinese are going to shoot Pelosi's plane down. I'm not joking. That was going around there as a possibility. And the fact that she just landed safely and got out of the plane caused the bond market to turn around. So certainly you could see some kind of a short term sentiment extreme caused just by that event. That seems to have gone away though in 24 hours on less something else happens China seems to have made its moves. It's already imposed economic well, I guess sanctions yet they are sanctions on Taiwan. And it's going to engage in some drills, but this may not be the kick-off to the retaking of Taiwan. Exactly. It is looking for at some point in the future. Yeah, I mean, certainly I am not a expert on military strategy, but I've read quite a number of notes now that have come out from people who are. Both the sanctions and the military exercises are quite a lot more lenient, quite a lot less aggressive than they could have been. There are much nastier sanctions packages they could have done and they could be much more menacing when it comes to playing around with their military. So it looks as though Sieg Jinping might have blinked and Nancy Pelosi hasn't. Can't imagine you'll get any great domestic political credit for it in the U.S., but it looks as though Pelosi might actually have fare won that particular contract. Yes. They're not exactly equals, I guess, in that respect, but she may have won. So we're in August. We've had this huge move in bond markets. We also saw the NASDAQ reclaim lots of territories so far this week. It's very hard to believe in the idea that this could be a fossil care when you watch what's happening in the market. But I guess that's the essence of being a good trader, right? It's a very difficult one. Certainly a number of usual technical trading measures. I'm not normally a great fan of technical analysis, but it's at times like this. When markets have really been scared and when trading really is about mass psychology that technical measures can be quite useful. And the degree to which we have had such a big reversal of such a big sell off doesn't usually happen unless the bottom is in, and that deserves some degree of respect. The noisy fang plus index so that the index just includes ten huge Internet platform companies, Apple, Amazon, Tesla, et cetera. At this point, 20% up almost exactly from its low, which was in May. Some technicians would say that the 20% rise means it's back in a bull market. It's still a long way below its peak from last year. But the 20% rise is in very, very liquid stocks that people know about, and are thinking about, again, can't
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lisa shallots" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Stanley, CIO, Lisa shallots, warning that analysts are not reducing corporate earnings forecasts in line with economic projections. Case in point, Nike shares tumbled after the New York bell, the sportswear giant offered downbeat guidance, sales and greater in the Greater China region are down 20% missing analyst estimates. Let's bring in max bondues CEO and founder. MC capital. Max, what do you make of the Nike numbers and kind of what conclusions can you draw that might kind of set the stage for some of the other earnings announcements that are going to come in the next few days? Well, the key here is really the guidance because in terms of numbers of the passport is actually not bad. But what investors are worried about is the future is the guidance. And guidance here has been clearly bleak, which has led to the correction and post market that we are experiencing now. And the fear is that you might get quite a bit of that in the upcoming earnings season. So we are basically entering the slowdown in terms of growth and in terms of companies numbers as well. And part of it is definitely still not reflected in terms of the earnings expectation. So there needs to be a further correction in terms of that with potential negative outcome with respect to the share prices before the market can really rebound on a sustainable level. Max, good morning to you. This goes to the heart of what Michael Barry has been saying, which is this slowdown at the retail end, Walmart, target, Nike, I know Nike is about China. But he talks about a bulwark effect. In other words, when you got stuff backing up at the retail level, it causes an outside impact on the wholesale level and a deflationary impulse and that he says could cause a reversal by the fed. Do you think the fed in any way are prepared to reverse? So we under assuming the slowdown, potential slowdown in inflation. The fed currently can not be seen as changing its mind once again. It's already lost quite a bit of image over the past year. The point does not, it can not allow itself to change its mind again. So the messaging is going to continue with respect to their completely focused on bringing down inflation and consequently continue hiking rates. But the key here is with respect to additional additional hawkishness, because if what they've been saying so far, that's as far as it's going to go. So that's no additional hawkishness can be seen as a little bit of dovishness. And there are four from an inflation point of view, everything that you have just pointed out at the same time, some of the commodities declining. That's likely as in line with the base case scenario that we are going to be seeing peak inflation is not going to be as much a requirement for the fed to hike as aggressively. So all of that could potentially in a best case scenario support the market point forward. Max, let's talk about the investment strategy here. Does that mean you're holding on to a little bit more cash than usual? And might actually deploy it quite soon if there is another meaningful correction in equity valuations later in July. Correct. So we're holding on to what we define as being the core of the portfolio, because that's less trading oriented. That's more on long-term perspective in terms of secular growth of the names that we like. But definitely we are more cautious than what we've been over the past few years holding on to again, 19 and 25 to 40% in cash, depending on the profiles. And we're looking to deploy that a bit more tactically. So we've deployed that about two or three weeks ago. We're now taking out some of the investments. And upon a negative moves from some of the names that we like on earnings, which could happen, then we're going to be very happy to buy that because obviously we think we're closer to the bottom than we were a few months back. We're probably not at the bottom yet, but it's getting more interesting to start deploying liquidity. Well, it certainly feels less volatile perhaps than in 2008 when it was just a straight vintage line on the way down. This is a slow continental drift of pain. To the commodity space, you look non energy, non energy commodities, and we were looking at this yesterday, copper down 16%, 10.21% last week, the westerns in the 1980s. You think that there is more pain to come on the commodity side, yeah? Absolutely, because the move we have seen over the last few months in terms of the move up has been incredibly brutal. So it's actually been extremely positive for commodities, but that has to undo itself. So it's gone ahead of itself. And a lot of that will also do to some speculative positions and not so much as the geopolitical tensions and situations only. And we're seeing that unravel and the further unraveling is yet to happen. And again, that is going to have the consequences with respect to inflation, which could potentially bring it down. And the more important part here in addition to copper revenue and everything you've mentioned is to keep a lookout on the food commodities because that's the one that can really spell travel from a social point of view if they remain elevated. And that's the one that's likely to be more sticky. Okay, but certainly if China reopens and normalizes, again, additional pressure will come to bear across that commodity complex. Max, thank you very much for being with us this morning. Pack up your cash and be safe. Max bondues CEO and finder of SG MC capital. Plenty more ahead on today's edition of
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lisa shallots" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Air and on Bloomberg quicktake powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts see more than 120 countries. This is Bloomberg, yousef. Thank you very much, George. I always pretend to start off a plane like they do and Top Gun every time I go to war. Snapshot of what else is to come on the show. We get an assessment of the economic picture in the Middle East that's going to be with Abu Dhabi commercial banks, money come out. But up next, market sentiment, dampened again by growth and inflation concerns, we take the temperature with SG MC capital's max Bond duri that's next. This is Bloomberg. When will you be able to go to a meeting where nobody smells like hand sanitizer? Who knows? But we can give you the latest business and financial news. Fragrance free. Plus, tease out some of what you just said. Are there tools in the toolbox for the fed? Does that point to the need for continued monetary support? Bloomberg radio, the Bloomberg business app and Bloomberg radio dot com. You do realize the mark that this is having on a younger generation. Bloomberg, the world is listening. Start your market day with Bloomberg surveillance. The bond market, it's a really interesting soup Tom keem, Jonathan farrow and Lisa Abramovich. Isn't your base case the worst case scenario for us? Who says finance can't be fun? Who's in the zoo, guys? Which one of us? Bloomberg's surveillance must listen must watch. I think they made a great decision, separated us both. We didn't want to use it 7 eastern on Bloomberg radio and Bloomberg television. When you reorganize and declutter, we're probably the first thing you decide to keep. Is there any serious contemplation of sanctions against China detailed financial and business reporting? Tell us more about your customers and how they're doing now. Expert analysis. You're basically just changing a $5 bill into 5 ones. Definitely essential. Looking at high yield, where does that take you these days? Bloomberg radio, the Bloomberg business app and Bloomberg radio dot com. Bloomberg, the world is listening. The composer Joseph Haydn famously said, I listened more than I studied. It sounds like a law school hypothetical. Here in Bloomberg, it's the same thing. Do you maintain that low rate regime? Can you see our two years? How do you build a strategy with that eventuality in mind? Experts, information, news. The push sets up a potential fight. What do we know about how it will go public? Bloomberg radio, the Bloomberg business app and Bloomberg radio dot com. Bloomberg, the world is listening. Economists have begun to cut their top down economic forecasts for GDP. And yet, you know, fundamental company analysts are sitting there like deer in headlights, not knowing what to do with numbers. Morgan Stanley, CIO, Lisa shallots, warning that analysts are not reducing corporate earnings forecasts in line with economic projections. Case in point, Nike shares tumbled after the New York
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lisa shallots" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"And I'm Charlie pellet At Bloomberg world headquarters Four days of gains for both the S&P 500 Index and the NASDAQ 100 index tech companies led the advance today Colin Martin is fixed income strategist at Charles Schwab We've gotten some good news lately We've seen risk assets bounce back sharply this week Not just in the equity markets but we've seen a strong bounce back in the credit markets as well But there's still a lot of uncertainty out there Specifically the number of rate increases Colin Martin of Charles Schwab Now as for forecasts by fed members for their interest rate projections also known as the dot plot Lisa shallot is chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley As much as J pal has been good at being a good communicator to the street of late I'm not entirely sure that he's been good at corralling all the governors around a true data driven analytical framework Lisa shout out of Morgan Stanley Over at JPMorgan asset management global market strategist David liebovitz says what's not needed is a half point hike To me that the fed would be better off sticking with 25 basis points and potentially trading some rate heights later on this year for an accelerated reduction in their balance sheet in an effort to keep that curve upward sloping and prevent the inversion signal from really undermining investor risk appetite David Leibovitz of JPMorgan asset management The Dow the S&P and nez stack all higher on this Friday now for the week the S&P was up 6.2% NASDAQ this week up by 8.2% the Dallas week advanced 5 and a half percent S&P gained 51 points today up 1.2% the Dow is up 274 up .8% NASDAQ surged today by 2% Global news 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg quicktake powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries I'm Charlie pallet this is Bloomberg.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lisa shallots" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Special report I'm Brian shook And I'm Charlie pellet At Bloomberg world headquarters Four days of gains for both the S&P 500 Index and the NASDAQ 100 index tech companies led the advance today Colin Martin is fixed income strategist at Charles Schwab We've gotten some good news lately We've seen risk assets bounce back sharply this week Not just in the equity markets but we've seen a strong bounce back in the credit markets as well But there's still a lot of uncertainty out there Specifically the number of rate increases Colin Martin of Charles Schwab Now as for forecasts by fed members for their interest rate projections also known as the dot plot Lisa shallot is chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley As much as J Powell has been good at being a good communicator to the street of late I'm not entirely sure that he's been good at corralling all the governors around a true data driven analytical framework Lisa shout out of Morgan Stanley Over at JPMorgan asset management global market strategist David liebovitz says what's not needed is a half point hike To me that the fed would be better off sticking with 25 basis points and potentially trading some rate hikes later on this year for an accelerated reduction in their balance sheet in an effort to keep that curve upward sloping and prevent the inversion signal from really undermining investor risk appetite David Leibovitz of JPMorgan asset management The Dow the S&P and nez stack all higher on this Friday now for the week the S&P was up 6.2% NASDAQ this week up by 8.2% the Dallas week advanced 5 and a half percent S&P gained 51 points today up 1.2% the Dow was up 274 up .8% NASDAQ surged today by 2% Global news 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg quicktake powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries I'm Charlie this is Bloomberg.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lisa shallots" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Us and on our call and I think it's important we're watching geopolitical but we've got to remember there's a lot going on here in the U.S. domestically Yeah it could be a new Supreme Court Justice soon enough Ketanji Brown Jackson we're going to talk about the way that she's really blazing a new path toppling out 223 year barrier for black women Yeah it's unbelievable All right we're going to get to that in just a moment First up Charlie pellet Where should we begin Well let's begin with looking ahead of the weekend how we have got the Dow the S&P nesta all of now what a week this has been by the way so much going on but we've got it covered S&P up right now by 24 points a gain of .55% of Dow up 44 now up one tenth of 1% NASDAQ up one 79 again there of just about 1.3% Technology companies leading gains in stocks traders weighing mixed signals from the peace talks between Russia and Ukraine amid volatility from expiring options investors are looking longer term at the wider implications of the Russian invasion of Ukraine Lisa shallot is chief investment officer for wealth management at Morgan Stanley The much bigger narrative for business cycle of markets to begin to think through is what how is this going to change spending in the west and the degree to which we're going to see a shift of investment priorities at both a public enterprise dimension in things like defense cyber space security public health all of these dimensions in which this new quote unquote Cold War is going to be fought Ask and P 500 index up now by 6 tenths of 1% up 25 points We've got the Dow up two tenths of 1% up 51 We're holding close to session eyes Now to stack up 180 up by 1.3% Ten year yield 2.14% spot goal down 8 ten 1927 the ounce and West Texas intermediate crude up one and a half percent one O four 56 a barrel FedEx shares tumbling after the company posted quarterly profit below Wall Street estimates FedEx shares now down by 5% GameStop higher after reporting a surprise loss during the holiday quarter GameStop up by 4.8% Briefly not only have Americans lost confidence in their pre-pandemic retirement plans but nearly half of those between the ages of 18 and 35 quote don't see a point in saving for retirement until things return to normal to a yeah according to a fidelity investment I mean they're gonna be living in our basement even longer And what is so frustrating is that they have got youth on their side but what do they say that youth is wasted on the young Get out that future value calculator and look up compounding interest There you go Magic.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lisa shallots" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Russia is responsible for the explosion of a gas line in the self proclaimed Luhansk people's republic speaking at The White House earlier President Biden again said he believes Russia will invade Ukraine in coming days The president hosted a call with European allies and Canada's prime minister before his speech to hold Russia accountable for its actions The west is united Attorney Ben crumb says the family of Dante Wright is completely stunned by the sentence given to former police officer Kim Potter She was found guilty of first and second degree manslaughter for shooting right during a traffic stop Lawsuits filed against former president Trump in connection with last year's capital riot can move forward A federal judge said Trump doesn't have immunity from litigation and denied his request to toss the civil lawsuits Police officers at the U.S. capitol on January 6th 2021 and democratic House members sued the ex-president saying he was responsible for sparking the attack Brad Pitt is taking ex-wife Angelina Jolie to court nika magahi reports The actor is suing Jolie accusing the actress of illegally selling off her share of their French estate chateau miraval It alleges they had agreed that neither would sell their share of the estate and its vineyard without agreement from the other party Court documents filed in Los Angeles superior court say Jolie sold off her share to Russian businessman Yuri scheffler without Pitts permission Jolie and Pitt bought the 35 room mansion in vineyard in 2008 for nearly $29 million and tied the knot there in 2014 More Dave Chappelle is coming to Netflix the streaming platform is moving past the comedian's closer controversy from last year with a new four episode special However the series won't show Chappelle doing stand up rather him introducing other comedians sees chosen for the show I'm Brian schuch Corporate analyst and leaders say it will be harder to run a business this year than it was in 2020 when the pandemic first hit Mike Bauer explains supply chain stars lingering COVID disruptions labor shortages inflation rising pay and soaring demands for new benefits and work flexibility are driving up costs and complexity Toss in a surge of individuals starting their own businesses and others simply quitting work altogether and you see why CEO anxiety is spreading fast Lisa shallot CIO of Morgan Stanley wealth management says after two years of CEO sitting at home and getting well paid seeing their stock appreciate Yeah this year is going to be more challenging I'm Mike Bauer SpaceX is planning to launch its next Starlink mission officials at the Kennedy Space Center in Florida say the falcon.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lisa shallots" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"A look at the economic landscape out there one of the big questions I have is where are all the workers I see help wanted signs up everywhere And we're now coming to understand one of the key issues in the supply chain glitches They can't find enough truck drivers to get the stuff out of the port so where are the workers I think our next guest may have some thoughts on that Lisa shallot chief investment officer wealth management at Morgan Stanley So Lisa give me your best guess to where the workers are Good morning everybody So thanks Thanks for having me As you may note we have put out a piece on this last week Where we suggested that the pandemic actually accelerated a bunch of structural changes that were probably already a foot with regard to the labor market And our sense is that right now a lot of folks may be underestimating number one the portion of folks that maybe retired and that retirement rate was accelerated around the pandemic our gases as many as 1.5 to 2 million additional people dropped out permanently dropped out of the workforce because of the pandemic and they were able to do so quite frankly because financial markets and their retirement savings were covered So quickly and so fully A second group of folks we think relocated and really took advantage of the ability for many jobs to quote unquote go remote or move to a hybrid model that really created a mismatch between the supply of labor and the demand the geographic demand for labor And it doesn't seem like some of those relocations are unwinding And the third piece is what we would call the retraining and repositioning of folks that were in positions that were deemed quote unquote non-essential And during this last 18 to 24 months of the pandemic those individuals said hey the heck with that I'm going to use this opportunity to train myself to get certified to move into a role that is considered more essential and more stable and I'm not going to go back to some of those service jobs that carry high stress and high public health risk I can tell you a couple of those hit home for me My parents both had been wary of retiring You know for financial reasons but they've just done so well recently in markets that they've decided to pull the trigger This year and then in terms of the retraining element we talk so much about truckers on this show but I have been looking seriously into what does it take to get your long haul license your CDL and get a job not just local delivery job but a real you know follow that white line kind of job across the country It's not easy It's really difficult It takes a lot of time and obviously to make the big money you need a lot of experience So retraining takes a while you know in light of this Lisa why are we still at all time highs We got this supply chain crisis There's a labor shortage Everyone's talking about real inflation and yet we're at 45 51 What's going on Yeah look I think if there's two fundamental things One we know that this is a market that continues to be awash in excess liquidity While a couple of the measures that we use to look at financial conditions have begun to suggest a little bit of tightening it may be at the ultra front end of the curve The reality is is that there's still a ton of cash out there Morgan Stanley has done some work in the last two weeks talking about the role of the individual investor who's been still has seems to have access to ample balance sheet reserves to put into the market that that is a segment that is quote unquote buying the depth and so we have a lot of liquidity and money still very much eager and willing to participate in this market I think the second thing is is that despite the headlines and despite downgrades in GDP growth for Q three despite the delta variant so far corporate earnings are holding up Now our measures that look at forward earnings revisions say that the breadth of those earnings revisions has begun to roll over that these topics of inflation and input costs and lack of labor and supply chain are going to be a factor but it doesn't seem that thus far in the reports that we're hearing they are a big enough factor to throw water on this market So real quickly at least at 30 seconds where are you telling clients to go right now Yes So look we like the cyclical story in Q four and 2022 So we're buying financials We're buying industrials We're buying materials We're buying energy We believe in continued CAPEX and investment cycle We believe in the housing cycle So those cyclical oriented issues which tend to still have a little bit better valuation support than maybe some of the quote unquote work.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lisa shallots" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"A Bloomberg business. Spice Bloomberg Markets continues now Paul Sweeney And Matt Miller. Right, Greg? Jared, thank you so much. We appreciate that again. Green on the screen yet again at her near all time highs as we continue to hear that from Gregg Jarrett and his reporting seemingly on a daily basis that is Lot of folks. This feels like a market and looks like a market that is priced to perfection and might have some vulnerability into it. But that's not stopping this market. Let's check in with an expert who knows this stuff, Lisa Shallot. Chief investment officer for Wealth management at Morgan Stanley. They have 1.5 trillion with a T and assets under management. Lisa Thanks so much for joining us here today, I guess I'll start with kind of the wall of worry. Kind of question or topic here. How concerned are you about this market? Given some of the headwinds that you know, folks rightfully point out whether it's rising interest rates tapering and, you know, just Delta variant. How do you view this market right here? So look, you know, we've been on the record, um, you know, to say that this is a market that for the most part, while it can claim that it's climbing the wall of worry and certainly positioning, uh in, you know, the mega cap tax stocks suggest an element of defensiveness. You know, our sense has been that this is the market. Uh, you know that is shrugging off most of the concerns whether it is, um you know, disruptions coming from Delta variant, whether it's you know, supply Jean concerns whether it's been that China regulatory crackdown, or, you know shifts in policy from the Fed. Nothing really has gotten in the way of this market. You know, it's notable, I think. That For for much of the period. You know, after the first quarter, many folks were saying that the market was rallying because interest rates were falling, You know, really over the last month or so, we've seen the 10 year back up from its ultimate lows on the 10. Year of 1 17. We're back up here. Into the mid one thirties on the 10 year, and even that has not, uh, you know, interrupted this. This grind higher in markets. So you but you expect a pullback. Right? Lisa? You expect a 10 to 15% correction? Before the end of the year. Yeah, we do. And, And the reason for that is essentially twofold. So, with that move and raped, we ultimately think that price earnings ratios, especially on those most expensive stocks. Should compress. We've seen P e multiple compression, uh, in many, many other parts of the market, Whether you're talking about international stocks, you're talking about value Stocks, more cyclical stocks. You're talking about the small caps. This is the one area of the market that has remained immune so far, and there's just no precedent for that. You know, historically when rates go up, ultimately, P ratios Do come down, So we see that as a risk and secondarily, you know, we're seeing folks talk about the growth scare. We're seeing people downgrade their estimates for third quarter GDP growth. Even at Morgan's family owned Ventnor has cut her third quarter number from 6.5% annualized growth rate to a 2.9%. That's a pretty big cut. I And yet, folks, you know, don't think that's going to harm earnings in the third quarter, and we think that could be another negative catalysts. So you know, lower PE ratios and potentially Earnings disappointments or fewer positive earnings revisions by the two catalysts that that might unleash at 10 15% correction. So with that type of correction between now and the end of the end of the year possible, are you suggesting people raise cash? Are you suggesting they rotate into Uh, just maybe more cyclical names. How do you think people should position themselves for that? Yes. So we're in the camp that says this is about Rotating and actively managing. So we are buyers of consumer services of financials of some of the industrial cycle goals from, um you know safer. Health care names and some staples. Um it's just really some of these long, duration oriented secular growth stocks that we think are long in the tooth and a need to kind of Take their hit. So we're rotating here. No need to panic and go to cash and get paid nothing and even negative returns after inflation, But we do think that we're in a bull market. It's just Bull market and things other than the S and P 500 index. How important is the infrastructure bill or how important is fiscal? You know trillions of dollars and continued fiscal support. You know our perspective is that it's not so much the the dollars to let people forget is that a lot of this is going to be spent over. You know, multiple years, if not, if not a decade. And so on any annual basis, it's fractions of percentage points of growth. But it's really the that the shift in mindset that we are in a, um in in a more fiscally active Environment. And, um, you know, that is growth oriented. And so you know, we are constructive broadly. I don't know. You know exactly what the form of final legislation is going to take given all the puts and takes of this But we do think we're going to get something and that something on the margin is helpful. Lisa. Great to get your take. Thank you so much for joining us so we can get you back on soon. Lisa Shallot is the chief investment officer for wealth management at Morgan Stanley. Obviously very important view to get so. Always good to to hear from Lisa. You know, we are seeing continued gains in the markets right now. And as we heard earlier from,.