14 Burst results for "Lisa Bravis"
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lisa bravis" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"To catch up with us. My wonderful questioning to the chairman as always in the news conference. Thank you for that. On behalf of the whole audience. Really pressing him on those rate cuts, Mike. What was your assessment of what you heard in the last 60 minutes? Well, I think basically what we heard was the fed saying, we don't know exactly what we're going to do, so we're going to play it carefully. And we will punt on a decision or on forward guidance for now until we get a better read on the economy. Powell was at pains to say his own personal opinion is we're not going to receive a recession, but he also ruled out rate cuts in case somebody is thinking that they might do that soon. So a very cautious fed here. If I could, I'd like to ask Bill Dudley a question to be still with us about that because the data don't change a whole lot in 6 weeks. What would be the bar for the fed since you've been in those meetings for the fed to raise rates to change its mind to say we need to do more? What would they need to see? I think they had to see evidence that the economy isn't slowing with the labor markets not loosening that wages aren't coming down that core inflation, not falling. At the end of the day, what they're trying to do is assess what is sufficiently restrictive in order to get inflation back down to 2%. Before the banking system problems, they thought sufficiently restricted was higher than what we are today. In fact, Paul was talking about potentially even doing a 50 basis point rate hike on not too long ago. And then the banking problems hit. And so that's caused the fed to lower their estimate of what sufficient a restrictive is. So the data will inform them about what's efficiently restrictive is if the data is released wrong, they'll revive up their notion of what sufficiently restricted it. But can you put more financial sector data or are they going to put more weight on the data coming from traditional indicators? I think they're going to put a lot of weight on what they're seeing insurance is the labor market wages and inflation. That's really where they have it made much progress yet. There's also going to probably take some signal by what's happening in the housing sector because if you look at the single-family housing sector, it looks like it's actually stabilizing. So the policy restraint that's already been put in place looks like it's the effects of that on housing are starting to fade. About just a final question from us all. This is something my case brought up over the last week in my conversations with him, whether this would be a nod to June 2006. You obviously have a deep understanding of the history of the Federal Reserve. Back in June O 6, they wrote in the statement the extent and timing of any additional firming that may be needed to address these risks will depend on the evolution of the outlook and et cetera, et cetera, inflation and economic growth implied by incoming information. Now Bill, do you think it's a deliberate nod to June O 6 when essentially that decision ended up being a pause? No, I don't think they know yet. I think that's being truth, very honest when he said that we hadn't made any decision about whether we're going to pause yet. I think they think that the probability is higher that they're going to plug, but they haven't actually got there yet. Bill, thanks for that. What if I get a perspective? Go down to there on the latest from Bloomberg opinion. And of course, the former New York fed president on this Federal Reserve decision. If you are just tuning in, welcome to the program on TV and radio, special coverage here. Bloomberg surveillance after hours late. Very light. Tom Caine, Lisa bravis, Jonathan pharaoh. After I said, 3 p.m., which is bedtime. We got a pop channel. Negative 0.6% on the S&P TK and bond market. We've done 7 basis points in our two year right now. Three 88. Equity is good. There's no question about it. I've been looking at Apple. We'll get to that tomorrow, but John, what doctor Dudley said there is extraordinary he did not mince any words about this institution missing the effect the slew of the Newtonian rates of change. Of the interest rate movement hasn't been enough talk about this. You can do it on a Bloomberg terminal. It's in your face. And to hear that from Bill Dudley, I don't care that he's an ex official. That was a scathing rebuke of his institution. I felt on regulatory oversight to some extent it's been an acknowledgment of that in the most recent one. But two to your point, they increased interest rates aggressively from zero to 5. They weren't front loading, they were catching up. And because they had to catch up, you've had this rate shock. And that's what Bill Dudley is talking about. I know we're going to get to Jeff Rosenberg, but basically folks, this is bramo and Farrell all wound up in me and McKee are more institutionally friendly. I'm sorry some of the people that let me clean up what you just said. What do you mean by that? And I'll leave my account of it, is that you have the establishment view? Yeah. You know, it's like 2020. Everybody else, but the bottom line is here's a guy with immense experience bill was in my book blah blah blah. Great. He was scathing about his institution. Debt crises always happen in instruments that are thought of as safe. That is always what has happened. Back in 2007, 2008, it was the triple-A rated debt that was tied to mortgage mortgages that were basically bundled together. So here's the question, has this Federal Reserve? And frankly, regulators generally just let me finish. Have they basically assumed a complete lack of risk in some of the benchmark treasuries that they're using as the safety pools as the buffers. And this really, if it's not appreciated, how much further does it potentially go? Slowly loosen it with your teeth. Specific worst is an end of the clothes. I'm sorry, Pacific west has given me a 7 down to 6.52
Bloomberg Radio New York - Recording Feed
"lisa bravis" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York - Recording Feed
"Stay with us Bloomberg surveillance with Tom Keene, Jonathan farrow, and Lisa abramo starts right now. Broadcasting 24 hours a day at Bloomberg dot com and the Bloomberg business app. This is Bloomberg radio. Here we are talking about what is the landing look like? I'm looking backwards at 2022 and saying, that looks like the landing to me. The market collectively does not have a clue at this point in time. Hence we're going to get a choppy market. We're seeing the beginnings of a regime shift back to a point where interest rates matter. We are moving back both in growth and inflation to what we would refer to as the old normal. Disinflation is not a concept that is dead. It may be around the corner. This is Bloomberg surveillance with Tom Keene, Jonathan farrow, and Lisa Abramovich. We should just do a whole hour of people saying I've got no idea. I don't have a clue. I think we do. I think that every morning we have no idea. A lot from New York City this morning. Good morning, good morning, for our audience worldwide. This is Bloomberg safana with Tom Keane. Lisa bravis and Jonathan farrow futures right now up a quarter of 1% on the S&P 500. Plenty of data, fed speak, all that good stuff through the week. We need to pick up on European CPI this morning. Hot in France, hot in Spain, TK, we got a read on Germany tomorrow. There is a lift in Eurozone sovereign bond yields this morning. Transitory further going, this is the second tranche of hotter that we've had in, you know, I'm going to go back. People think it's physics envy. It's just the reality of, you look at a trend on a chart, and there's a vector, the vector and French inflation in no way shape or form signals disinflation. And now all of a sudden we're talking about four percent potentially at the European Central Bank. Try and get your head around that. That is absolutely ridiculous. That's the ECB. Let's talk about earnings in the United States through the week.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lisa bravis" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Well, it's going to be warm at the targets of the space rather than being taken as a very positive story. Walmart right now, up 5% in the pre market, one 45, 90. That stock is really outperformed through the year so far. I think coming in today was only down about 4% and Walmart's here, the headlines for you. The numbers come in at one 50, adjusted EPS for the third quarter, the estimate was one 32. You've got a $20 billion share re buy back, share buyback authorization in there as well. Because of these strong results for Q three, they've raised the year outlook on those strong results, significantly improved the inventory position in three Q as well. Now the inventory position, Lisa is a big, big story when it comes to good disinflation in American. Of course, this goes well beyond Walmart. So that's a decent read for the name. Is that a decent rate for the economy when you read those kind of headlines? Says no. And I think you asked the right question. Is this basically people downshifting? Take a look at the grocery sector. They say they're making significant inroads in getting market share in the grocery sector. How much does this speak to exactly what you're talking about? People who are perhaps in the middle or upper income brackets going to Walmart to shop rather than whole foods. No, that's a renaissance macro right now. Just right again. Neil, thanks for watching, as always. Walmart booming is fine. Come on. What gets cut back in this recession? It goes on to say anything this is the interesting point. The economy is speeding up. U.S. consumption is growing 4% in real terms. If everyone prepares for a recession, is it less likely or more likely? He says it means it's less likely there is no element of surprise. What do you make of that? Well, that's perhaps what other people are saying by saying it's baked in. I just want to make this, though, that they seal a full year adjusted EPS down only 6 to 7% versus the expectation of 9 to 11%. This is doing less bad, right? So to his expect to his point of if it's baked in, does it make it less likely to really have the same kind of oomph when it comes to fruition? Let's pick up on those comments from Neil in just a moment. Equity futures right now up 8 tenths of 1% on a S&P 500. With Lisa bravis, I'm Jonathan farrow. TK is going to be back in the seat tomorrow. I'm happy to say he's really shortening up these trading weeks TKS until you're trying to complain all summer about not taking time off and now he's taking the rest of the year off. Good for him. Enjoy it. Good for him. Yes. Okay. Bonnie to down four basis points from New York. This is Bloomberg. Now, with the latest news from New York City and around the world, here's Michael Barr. Lisa
TuneInPOC
"lisa bravis" Discussed on TuneInPOC
"Continue? Yeah, you know, look, if you look at the S and P 500, the top line or the headline doesn't really tell the full story of what's happening underneath the surface, 2021 was a great example of that. We had a rotation into value as the vaccine rollout happened early in the year. But then after that we saw a rotation back into growth, a rotation, perhaps back into value as the delta variant waned, but towards the end of the year, we actually saw a little bit of defensive moves. We saw defensive sectors like healthcare and Staples take a leadership role in the last month of 2021. We expect a little bit more of the same this year. We do expect the year to begin, perhaps a little bit more strongly driven by the value cyclical rotation. We do expect at some point we will get another reopening two, a little softer than what we saw last year. But as the year progresses, we would definitely recommend having a more balanced portfolio. As the year progresses and comps get harder for value and growth slows a little bit, perhaps still above trend. We would expect areas like growth like defensives like those quality names to really pick up the mantle. And so a more balanced approach to portfolio management this year. We think makes a lot of sense. Keep in mind, our old friend Tina does come back into play. There is no alternative. You know, investors, as always, are putting new money to work. Where do they go? Well, in an environment where liquidity is waning, they're looking for large liquid markets. And the U.S. equity market does come front and center once again. At least for now, until the global story picks up. Mona, do you get the sense that basically a balanced portfolio is the way to go and that frankly just owning the index continues to be the best bet at a time when the rotations happen. And it's unpredictable when. You know, I think investors that have owned the index have done well over the last three years and will continue to do well this year. To Tom's point on active management, hasn't panned out, has an outperformed and all investors are looking for some alpha. And so yeah, in our view, owning an S&P 500 Index is part of a strong balance portfolio. And certainly that index ownership will help you outperform over the long run. And so certainly that's part of a portfolio. This can be complemented by certainly parts of active management that perhaps do give you outsized exposure to a value sector or a growth sector, depending on where you're under weights and overweights are. So it's important to have a combination of both, but certainly we are in favor of having some exposure to index index ETFs index management as well. Mona always awesome to hear from you as we kick off 22 and look ahead to the year ahead of my channel there of Edward Jones on the equity market as we march towards a Federal Reserve decision at the back end of Q one. Some people pencil and Gina rate hike for the month of March. The question we're asking, the questions we're asking. Show me why I should hike in March or show me why. I shouldn't. This from city, they published just moments ago. Andrew Holland horse and the team Tom boy and markets and sustained strong demand despite the rise in COVID-19 cases mean fed officials will now need to explain why they are not hiking in March. The base case is sitting for what it's worth, Tom, is June. Well, you'll have to see John. I mean, there's a lot of economic data to come out, including the jobs report you mentioned the dispersion of the jobs reporting in shepherdson out to a million jobs. I'm going to suggest John most of fed policy comes back to the measurement of fully employed America and the measurement then of this wage inflation that's maybe there may be not there. John, we just need to get the data and I'm sorry. There are massively massively data dependent. I'm pleased to see your employed some. I had my doubts have been gone so long. It was. Communication. The one guy the one guy on week two of COVID that gives me a call and says I'm perfecting my Negroni. And perfecting my Negroni. John, John, what is great about this is I get extra points at motel 6, the benefits of being motel 6. It's great. It's good. I bet it is. Tom Kean, and Lisa bravis and Jonathan farrow features up 17. Let's call it 18. We're hired by four tenths of 1%. This is Bloomberg. Now the latest news from New York City and around the world, here's Michael Barr. Tom Lisa John Elizabeth Holmes has been found guilty of four counts of criminal fraud for her role in building the blood testing startup theranos. Bloomberg's Ed Baxter reports. Bill that she did into a $9 billion company before it collapsed in scandal. So the jury found four guilty counts for not guilty and could not agree on the three others. Her fall from grace is a celebrity CEO to convicted felon on fraud, marks one of the most dramatic dissents in Silicon Valley history. She could face 20 years at her sentencing, which will take place in a few weeks. She remains free on bond. In San Francisco, I met Baxter Bloomberg radio. The U.S. set a global daily record of more than a million COVID-19 cases. Doctor Ashish jha dean of the Brown university school of public health says the current surge of cases driven by the highly transmissible omicron variant is likely to peak soon and then drop off. Unfortunately, a lot of Americans are going to get infected. It does seem like a milder variant for a lot of people. I absolutely think this is going to build population immunity is going to make it much easier for us to deal with any future waves if they were to arrive. Doctor John told ABC Monday's number is almost double the previous record of about 590,000 sent just four days ago in the U.S.. Do you still have a BlackBerry? Give it a goodbye kiss
TuneInPOC
"lisa bravis" Discussed on TuneInPOC
"Are. Lisa, things happening very, very quickly. That seems to be a theme of our conversation through much of this morning. And the other theme is, is energy a risk play? Is it something that is a trade or is this something that's a supply demand picture that's highly nuanced with respect to the investment in fossil fuels and the transition to the green economy? And that I think is a distinction that you hear, the tension underlying Jeff curry's comments basically, he's saying, honestly, you have to have energy because that is the risk play that will hedge against inflation. I love Jeff. Very fashionable, you know. TK isn't Jeff the most vegetable guy at Goldman a Goldman. Haven't we concluded that? It's purely it's a risk, yes. I think he got solemn to wear a parabolic sneaker. He used to turn up into the radio studio with us with those balancing sneakers on. I was always surprised. Always surprised by that. Tom Kean, Lisa bravis and Jonathan farrow, your equity market, just down two on the S&P down 91 on the NASDAQ 100, down to 6 tenths of 1%, yields breaking out another three or four basis points to one 74. This is Bloomberg. Burden LLP accountants and advisers presents tax chat with mayor Minsk, partner and co leader of burden's real estate practice. Whether it's because of the COVID-19 pandemic or not, it is essential for anyone negotiating a deal. To understand the underlying economic assumptions and the current market. From buying or selling assets to forming a joint venture, it's important to work with a sophisticated tax adviser who understands how the changing tax law may impact the structure of the deal. At burden, we leverage our more than 100 years of transactional experience to help guide clients through the complexities of these structures and ensure that they understand any potential tax impact. If you're a high net worth individual or business owner, levert and help protect you, your family and your business. For more tax chat from burden, visit burden LLP dot com. That's BER, DON, LLP dot com. Burden accountants and advisers, we listen, we solve, we do. Hey dad, your prescription will be ready in just a minute. Hey, dad, your laundry will be ready in just a minute. Dad, your lunch will be ready in just a minute. Hey, honey. Why don't you take a minute? When you help care for a loved one, you give them as much time as you can, making sure they're safe and comfortable. But it's just as important that you take some time for yourself. At AARP, we can help with information and useful tips on how you can maintain a healthy life balance. Here for your own physical and mental well-being and manage the challenges of caring for a loved one, because the better care you take of yourself, a better care you can provide for your loved one. Thanks, dad. Thank you. You're there for them. We're here for you. Find free care guides to support you and your loved one at AARP dot org slash caregiving. That's AARP dot org slash caregiving. A public service announcement brought to you by AARP and the ad council. This is a Bloomberg money minute. Finally, it looks like food prices may be starting to come down a bit. A UN gauge of prices fell almost 1% last month. That drop was mainly driven by vegetable oils and sugar, prices surged since mid 2020 amid harvest setbacks expensive freight rates, labor shortages, and an energy crisis, and they are still near 20 11s all time high. Southwest Airlines is offering most workers up to double pay for overtime through January 25th as it tries to stabilize operations amid ongoing cancellations. The new incentive program applies to flight attendants, customer service workers, ground crews and others, talks are also underway on financial incentives for pilots. Stock slid yesterday, led by a route in technology shares after minutes from the fed meeting, signaled interest rate hikes may be more aggressive than many had expected. The NASDAQ took the biggest hit tumbling just over 3%. The S&P slid almost 2%. The Dow was down 1% in the session. Gina survey, Bloomberg radio. Why get your financial news of Asia from some secondhand source? The Asian trading day gets underway. Business news of Asia, firsthand, direct to you. The regulatory crackdown has been a very big issue in China hero fleet. We do have energy stocks leading the nikkei hire Bloomberg daybreak Asia. Tonight at 6 eastern. China has vowed to consolidate the country's EV industry. On Bloomberg radio, the Bloomberg business app and Bloomberg radio dot com. Markets, you can't predict them. The delta variant is ripping up the playbook. The best is being a bit of a fog at the moment, but when you listen to us, you'll come pretty close. Let's take a look at those small cap stocks. We're taking a look at some of the sector winners, the sector losers. Is this bullish or is it bearish? Bloomberg radio, the Bloomberg business app and Bloomberg radio dot com. Broadcasting 24 hours a day at Bloomberg dot com on the Bloomberg business app. And at Bloomberg quick take. This is Bloomberg radio. As the labor market continues to improve, we're going to see people come back into the labor force. Even with higher wages, you won't drive inflation higher. Inflation will come down, but from what levels one yields have gone up a lot and fast, but most of that increase has been inflation expectations, not the rear yield has such a difficult task ahead of them. They need to engineer a soft landing. This is Bloomberg surveillance with Tom Keene, Jonathan farrow, and Lisa Abramovich. This fed is ready to go from New York City for our audience worldwide. Good morning, good morning. This is Bloomberg surveillance live on TV and radio alongside Tom Keane and Lisa rabbits I'm Jonathan farrow. Your NASDAQ down again. Negative 82 on the NASDAQ 100 down another half of 1%, Tom Keane the fed. It's ready to hike and maybe do a whole lot more. Some nuance in there. I mean, around the silliness and Mike McKeon I make jokes about this, John, but the language of the minutes is several few some many. What several few summon many did was shock the markets yesterday afternoon. Shocked in big time, Lisa and introduced this faster approach to balance sheet reduction as well. And it's not lost on anyone. You and I have talked about it a few times this morning. Unbelievable, we're having this conversation about balance sheet reduction as they're still buying bonds, month after month in March. Which is a reason why the likes of Peter buchar who you highlighted earlier this morning is basically saying, why are we even doing this? Because they're continuing to expand their balance sheet. There is a change though in tone and how much will that change into action? How much does that matter? Because right now, a lot of people do not think that markets are priced for a fed shrinking its balance sheet. You've said this before, John, do you actually think that they'll go through with it? Markets seem to be saying, probably not, and yet they're getting more nervous. It's less game this one out. If they'd wound up, QE already. Let's say they finished the taper would January be in play. Never mind march based on the communication we've had from them so far.
TuneInPOC
"lisa bravis" Discussed on TuneInPOC
"With more. The question this morning can the airlines recover because we had 3000 flights nationwide, canceled on Monday because of the snowstorm and the residual effects from having the COVID sit calls affecting so many airline staff. The flight tracking website flight aware puts a number of flights scrapped within into or out of the U.S. at nearly 1100 delays, total more than 500. The death toll from a winter storm hitting the east coast is up to 5, including two children. Heavy snowfall shut down most of D.C. yesterday, triggering an emergency. Football fans are saluting steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. He helped his team beat the browns 26 to 14 in what is likely his last home game, a late interception allowed him to take a knee on the final play as fans cheered. I'm Michael kassner. When unprecedented events are unfolding, it's important to let history teach us. Do you think it's a different world for the fed? Bloomberg balance of power with David Weston, weekdays at noon eastern. On Bloomberg radio, the Bloomberg business app and Bloomberg radio dot com. I think place will likely move lower than 7% through the course of this year, but it's still going to be consistently too high such that it will be a consistent problem for the fed. The fed is reacting now to the inflation data and that reaction may actually come sooner in terms of the short term rating increases. Jake today saw that the global had a fixed income at Columbia threadneedle from New York City this morning at his 2022 with a little flavor of sprinkler 2020 with Tom Keene and Lisa bravis working from home I'm Jonathan farrow who in the studio features up 13 on the S&P up about a quarter of 1% and no one likes the taste. The sprinkle of 2020 do they? Yields up four basis points on ten to one 66 47. Crude higher by a quarter of 1%, 76, 27 on WTR 20 cents on the day. And that takes us to cookie Gupta and her chart of the day. Morning. Good morning, John. We have to talk about the OPEC meeting that's on the agenda and of course the major theme of 2022, which is inflation largely being driven up by those oil prices. Let's just talk about though what OPEC has done historically because they have actually come under a lot of scrutiny. From a lot of those oil consuming nations, Japan, Korea, India, and of course the United States saying you have to hike even faster to really fight those inflationary pressures. And that's what my chart of the day shows. Oil output coming from OPEC going all the way back to 1999 and how quickly or how much time it takes to actually recover some of the output after a recession. After the 2001 recession, it took three years for OPEC to kind of get back to that pre recessionary output after O 8, it took 7 years. So they're actually kind of using this very slow and steady approach in terms of hiking output. And they're able to do that because they're actually meeting some of those fiscal break-even rates. Saudi Arabia, for example, breaks even at $78 a barrel oil price as Brent right now hovering just near 80 similar story for Russia. Their break-even rate at $69 a barrel. So they are making money. Those kind of concerns of 2020 were the oil supply was actually hurting a lot of those economies. Well, it's not really the case anymore. Create a group to thank you so much in there. The microeconomics of oil always fascinating with huge uncertainty around it. Part of the uncertainty we see in our spectacular hydrocarbon surveillance of December was a bat on a 120 a $150 barrel oil and Deutsche Bank is one example really pushing against that looking for a subsidence in oil. Today, Brent crew near $80 a barrel. We get an update from our will Kennedy on the oil market. Will Kennedy, what is different about this $80 Brent versus the last time we were at $80 Brent? I think most people expect $80 not to be the top, as you were saying, some people expect it to go a lot higher from here. And we may see some softness through the free first three months of this year. Tom, there's a bit of a surplus expected into the end of this quarter, but I think the overriding idea for oil in 2022 is that we're going to run out of spare capacity and quickly these OPEC meetings are going to come quite moved because we're going to get to a point if we don't have a massive reversal in the global economy or a terrible COVID outbreak or something severe. We're going to get to a point in the middle of the year where OPEC is pumping every single battle it can. And at that point, demand will just keep pushing prices higher. Will Kennedy OPEC is about politics as much as it is about economics. There is the announcement, the firm and if you will, that the leader of turkey will meet with a leader of Saudi Arabia, explain the importance of that to the oil community that Erdoğan will meet with The Crown prince. Well, I think it's part of the broader picture for The Crown prince that The Crown prince is time as a parliament over that people need to be talking to Saudi Arabia against Saudi Arabia more than ever is control in the global oil market. And that control and as criti said oil coming in at above $80 a barrel, they're break-even at a time where they're producing close to as much as they've ever produced in their history means that dollars are pouring into Saudi Arabia and with those dollars comes a lot of political and economic cloud and leaders are going to have to talk to the MBS, whether they like it or not. And eventually that may well include the president. Well, how much does this increasing economic and political cloud of Saudi Arabia have to do with the fact that the shale patch really isn't coming back online as quickly as many people expected. And a lot of people think that we've already seen peak shale in the back view mirror. Yeah, I mean, that may or may not be true to you so but it is the other very important question about how the OPEC, the oil market and OPEC develops in 2022. As I said for OPEC, things look set fairly well. They're all going to be in demand, but the one thing that could upset that a little on the supply side is a resurgence in shale. It's been muted so far as you say, but it has been creeping higher, especially in the Permian Basin. And if we get oil prices going far beyond $80 a barrel, it may be that that process accelerates. So far they've been very disciplined, but how far that discipline continues as oil prices rise is going to be an incredibly important question for us to look forward this year. Well, we're talking with you as the OPEC plus meeting is underway and they're expected to increase their output by 400,000 barrels expected to bring online about two thirds of what was taken offline in 2020. When are we expected to get back to where we were pre-pandemic? How quickly can they do that given some of the supply constraints that you're talking about? Yeah, I mean, on paper, as I said, it should happen towards the middle of this year. That's what the schedule suggests, and that's what the 400,000 ballot day increments are geared towards. But you raise an important point about what many countries can do many countries oil industries took a bit of a hammering during the pandemic and the slump in oil prices. They haven't been investing. They haven't been drilling. And some of those OPEC countries are struggling to keep up. So the actual increases at OPEC is coming up with a below what their promising outside Saudi Arabia and the united members. So we meet by some estimates and meter center energy aspects says that we may get less than half of 400,000 barrels a day in February that they'll claim to put into the market. So it's going to be a meal struggle, but they may catch up. I mean, at these prices it will become economic to drill to invest for these countries. So they may be able to close some of these gaps, but it's clearly another thing for the market to watch this year and another reason that would add to the bullish argument for oil as we go into 2022. Well, great work, buddy. Thank you. It's good to see you. Will Kennedy there of Bloomberg crew this morning at four tenths of WTI 76 40 on Brent at 79 36 up a half of 1%. If you just turn and get in the last hour, a bit in use in the tennis world, tennis star, Novak Djokovic, will play in the Australian open, even though Tom, there are rules barring unvaccinated players. We have a statement from the tournament organizers. They go on to say Djokovic applied for a medical exemption, which was granted following a rigorous review process involving two separate independent panels of medical experts, one of those was the independent medical exemption review panel appointed by the Victorian Department of Health. They assessed all applications to see if they met the Australian technical advisory group on immunization guidelines. So Tom Kean, he gets to go for number 21. Well, we're making it up as we go, John. I think that's really what we're seeing here, whether it's vaccinated or unvaccinated. We all have our stories about this and John, I would say, you know, I had about three days that were difficult. I would say, and what I want to do is really listen to the medical community and what they think about the movement of unvaccinated people. And we were making it up. In some Cain, Lisa bravis and Jonathan farrow, you equity market up 12 advancing around about a quarter of 1%. From New York, heard on radio I've seen on TV for our audience worldwide, pushing all time highs. This
TuneInPOC
"lisa bravis" Discussed on TuneInPOC
"Given what the fed's been doing. Full basis points away from that zero level on a German ten year. As you know, Greg, just the experience of us all over the last ten years looking at European debt markets. It's what happens in Italy that counts here. Now, in America, we're talking about the prospect of tighter financial conditions and the ability or inability of the Federal Reserve to step back. Does the ECB have any capacity to maintain easy financing conditions for places like Italy and do they move away and ultimately does this European bond market trade like a sovereign or a credit Greg? Which one? Within the year, that's a very, very good question. To what degree can they pull back and not destabilize the periphery, Italy in particular, and it's going to be difficult difficult difficult to do. I think it's going to a mix of the two, obviously there's the sovereigns in the northern countries. It's the sovereigns, as they try nationalize the debt and some of those programs that they instituted after the COVID spreads through their last year. But they're still concerned about what Italy is going to be able to do if indeed the ECB pulls back from their purchases. That part of the market becomes a credit market and it's one to watch very closely. Greg, good to catch up to the great Staples there of DWS group. Tom king, you and I have been talking about this for a long, long time. The ECB is working through this bond market for a long, long time. We can talk about a Federal Reserve back in a way. What happens with treasuries? We can talk about a Federal Reserve backing away. What happens in Europe and ECB? Maybe they do the same. What happens in Germany? Tom you know what happens in Italy has been setting the guidebook to playbook for the CCB for a long, long time. Can they back away without causing a problem on the periphery? I totally agree. And I just want to say folks, what you just heard there from Greg Staples. This is why we do this. This is global Wall Street at its finest showing the dynamics of the moment. And John, I think you're absolutely dead on that Italy with its out economy, to be honest, ara economy, and its peripheral but not peripheral nature is a brilliant litmus paper for Christine Lagarde of her optionality and Jerome Powell across the pond to say Megan Greene would talk about, it's got to be aware and sensitive to Lagarde's choice set forward. And again, Italy is that litmus paper. It's just so, so difficult Tom, because when you're managing a bond market, if you manage just the treasury market, you understand the characteristics of treasuries as a central banker, when things get bad people buy them, things get better, people sell them. That's typically the way that sovereign debt markets work. If you're at the ECB, you're operating with bond markets with very different characteristics Tom. A pure sovereign like Germany, or maybe a hyper software and given how it responds to bad news. And Tom in Europe in Italy, a very different story. I'd almost call it a hybrid somewhere between a sovereign and a credit just in terms of the characteristics of that market. When things get bad, people don't gravitate towards BTPs. They step back from them. And even with characteristics of EM and also the political overlay, including the French election. What I would point out, John, and this is really important to our radio and TV audience. This is far more nuanced than the simplistic stuff you hear each and every day and Staples absolutely nailed that coming off of the David faulkner's Landau school at Deutsche Bank, John to say that this is way more nuanced than it used to be. It's totally agree. Your ten year in Italy for anyone that's following up 8 basis points this morning to about one 30. Oh, I am, thank you. On tens on BTPs on my screen right now. Over in Germany, four basis points on a ten year just shorter zero, negatives, four basis points. Right now. Tom can you get comfortable? With Lisa bravis and Jonathan farrow, your equity market down to on the S&P down 81 on the NASDAQ. Down a half of 1% from New York. This is Bloomberg. Now the latest news from New York city and around the world, here's Michael Barr. John Lisa John, thank you president Joe Biden and members of Congress are marking the first anniversary of the U.S. capitol riot. Today, lawmakers are holding events to reflect on the violent attack by supporters of president Donald Trump last January 6th. President Biden plans to say that at this moment we must decide what kind of nation we are going to be. Chicago public school classes are canceled again today after the Chicago teachers union and CBS officials failed to reach a deal yesterday. The CTU voted late Tuesday night switched to remote learning until January 18th due to the ongoing surge in COVID cases in the city, but city officials maintained their unable to accommodate such requests. Chicago public school, CEO, Pedro Martinez. We know that what happened when we went remote last year. We know, and we're being asked we'll just do it for another week. Do it for another week. As if the implications for families were not serious. As if it was that easy. Martinez says city officials hope to welcome students back in some capacity tomorrow. Defense lawyers for glean Maxwell are planning to request a new trial. Come days after a New York City jury convicted her of conspiring to recruit and groom teenage girls to be abused by Jeffrey Epstein and following the revelation a juror in the case revealed he was a victim of sexual abuse. Loyola law professor Jessica Levinson. the prosecution and the defense have asked the judge to investigate a juror who shared his experiences as a sexual assault victim with the jury. It's not clear if he correctly answered the question on the jury questionnaire asking if he was a victim of sexual assault. Professor Levinson says the judge will determine whether this undermines Maxwell's right to a fair and impartial jury. A new study says millions of kids are likely developing asthma from vehicle pollution. A study published by George Washington University found that nitrogen dioxide a chemical found in tailpipe emissions is a major factor in causing asthma. Live in the Bloomberg interactive broker studios, this is global news 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg quicktake. Powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts and more than a 120 countries, I'm Michael Barr. This is Bloomberg. With a Bloomberg business of sports report on Michael Barr. Should they be named the New Jersey jets or how about the east Rutherford giants? The NFL, the New York Jets and the New York Giants were hit with a proposed class action lawsuit by football fans, alleging the team's use of the New York name and brand while actually playing at New Jersey's MetLife constitutes false advertising to septic practices and racketeering. The complaint seeks monetary damages and require the Giants and jets return to stadiums in New York, speaking of the NFL, more than half of the league's 32 teams have female fan clubs and that doesn't count Philadelphia and its annual eagles academy for women. NFL senior director of diversity, equity, and inclusion Sam rappaport says with women making up just under half of the NFL fan base. It's so important for women at all age ranges to feel that they belong in football, whether that's through playing, coaching, or fandom. And that's a Bloomberg business of sports report on Michael Barr. Greg solder is president of WG, which provides engineering solutions for public infrastructure and real estate development projects. He's also on the board of overseers for New Jersey institute of technology and sees firsthand the intense demand by companies to hire and JIT graduates. This would come almost cliche to say, but a large percentage of the jobs required in the not too distant future have not even been identified yet. What that means is we need graduates with problem solving skills and an understanding of technology. Technological dexterity to be the leaders and innovators of the future and JIT is rising to that challenge. It's not just about the
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lisa bravis" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"The best for our nation and greeting each change with understanding good grace and an abiding faith in the Australian people's judgment. From her first trip here, it was clear her majesty had a special place in our hearts. And we, in hers, the tributes pour in from heads of state around the world. That was Anthony albanese, the Australian prime minister, life from London this morning, good morning to you all in New York and good afternoon to everyone elsewhere. Alongside Tom keen and Lisa bravis, I'm Jonathan pharoah. Let's check in on the markets for you. About 7 18 over in New York to 18 here in London, picture things looks like this, and I could eat futures up 33 points on the S&P 500. TK we advanced about 8 cents or 1%. Don't play in the markets today, and I would say, John, a 22 handle on the vix, we're back to 32,004 thousand S&P 500, and I believe it was you, John, that spanned binky charter's views at Deutsche Bank the other day of the spread, the diversity here, even from one strategist. I have to come up with, we need to get binky on the show. Because I get on with being kid, I want to have a go. I've been keeping the difference between recession and no recession, can't be the S&P at 3000 and the S&P at 47 50. I know there's way more to see you and I do enhance semaphores here. The way we're doing it. But seriously, I think the uncertainty here is extraordinary, which means to get to Sarah hunt here in a moment, is really quite important. My way is the intervention. You meant to stage the intervention. I was like, which is about you talking about monetary intervention or Tom John intervention. Well, Lisa intervention. I come in and just stand between you guys. Carry on. We finally have a dollar break. I think that is the news item as we traveled across. That's a real Euro dollar pop. Yeah, we got to have your way finally and we'll have to see where that goes. We welcome all of you from London. Lisa bran was John farrow and myself here for the next ten days and it will be an extraordinary ceremony at Westminster Abbey here in a number of days. Of course, many, I have to be honest, I'm presuming president and doctor Biden will attend. I think we can proceed. At this point, we can. I think we get to stay from all around the world, flying in. If you'll see how that evolves over the number of days with leadership from Anna Edwards and guy Johnson, right now Sarah hunt joins us, chief market strategist, Alpine sex and Woods as we consider the markets. Sarah, I usually don't go market strategy with you. I'm much more interested in portfolio dynamics, but I believe we had a June rally, is this a redux of what we lived in June? First of all, let me just say that from Americans too, we mourn the passing of the queen. It was amazing. She's been the queen for my entire lifetime. And that is sort of a shock to everyone's system. So getting back to my getting back to monetary policy, I'm not sure if it's a redux from June. I think that June was very much about the fact that we were going to pause and we had deconstruction. And we might be doing a mini version of that right here because you have seen oil prices come down. But I look at what's going on in Europe and I look at what's going on with energy across the globe and I have to say that it's hard to say that we're done with that high prices and how that's going to affect people. So I think right now you've got a little bit of relief from the dollar because the ECB hiked rates so that makes that swaps out that policy a little bit so that gives a little relief to the dollar. That's helping equity markets. I'm not sure that there's a full reduction in June, however. Sarah, can you just build on something you said about energy? Are you saying that you don't think we fully realize the consequences of the crisis we're in right now in places like Europe or are you suggesting that that crisis is about to get worse? I'm a long-term energy person. So this goes back to weather, right? You know, years ago, you used to look at the weather forecast to see what you thought energy prices were going to do. And if we don't get a very severe Windsor, if we get a mild winter, I think that that's going to help a lot. But I still think that there's a lot of pressure there. And it's unclear how some of those pressures are going to be alleviated. There's been a big program in the UK just announced yesterday about how to fix that for consumers, but that doesn't really figure out how to fix that for the companies that have to deal with the input prices and how that's going to look overall. So I think that there's still a lot of uncertainty. And the idea that we're sitting here in September when the weather is fairly mild and feeling sanguine about it, I think, is a little bit, it's a little bit premature. So we've been talking all morning about Liz trust and her recent plan. To bring down energy costs for households and how she did not include a windfall tax. How much does the lack of inclusion of a windfall tax the opposition there? The opposition in places in the United States as well sort of feed into your bullish stance on energy companies. Well, I think to the extent that there's never any relief on prices collapse, I think that the windfall tax is a little bit of a difficult argument to make. On the other hand, certainly given the extraordinary circumstances that were under taking it off the table entirely, doesn't help necessarily in situation because you're trying to look the same way to fund some of this relief. It's going into what they're trying to do for households and for businesses. And Germany is going to have the same issue because you've already seen a lot of complaining from businesses and from consumers there. And they've got skyrocketing energy costs that makes production very difficult. So that's an industrial problem as well as a consumer problem. So how to pay for that becomes the question. And a lot of the policies that have taken years to get to where we are are difficult to reverse. So I think that it's difficult to see how you see a situation resolving itself in a very easy manner, except for the fact that you've got some demand destruction going on partially on the oil front because in China, but in general, it is talking about conservation, it doesn't have to be the malaise of the 70s, but it certainly could be part of the conversation. And that seems to be a little bit off that that hasn't been part of that package as well. Sarah Han, thank you, of Alpine, Saxon Woods, on the energy situation, what it means in the equity market as well. Lisa, it's uncapped liability. You and I have talked about this so many times now. You can't come up with a number for how much it's going to cost because it is uncapped liability. Nobody can forecast the price of gas. Let's be clear about that and I don't think anyone right now can get in the mind of a dictator in Russia and what he's going to do to gas supplies or for that matter, how Europeans are going to respond to it if it gets a whole lot worse from here because it's not just the war. It's the response, the policy response to that war that's taken us to this place. With that in mind, Lisa, this stance on the windfall tax is based on where we are now. Now, if you tell me down the road through next year, the energy price is gas prices are going to explode explode higher again. And that the UK, the British government, has to cover the difference, the fatter margins for the energy companies, and they're on the hook for that, and
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lisa bravis" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"We have this situation where growth is slowing with the fed is tightening. The fed has been very clear. They need to slow the economy down so the stronger it is now, the more hiking they have. I believe the fed targets inflation and believes that by timing financial conditions, it kind of gets there. There is an increased probability of a soft landing. I don't think the fed's going to be doing much in terms of hikes next year. This is Bloomberg surveillance with Tom Keene, Jonathan farrow, and Lisa Abramovich. The bears are back live from New York City for our audience worldwide. Good morning, good morning. Good morning. This is fun fact surveillance to life on TV and radio alongside Tom Keane and the absolutely brilliant and sometimes slightly bearish Lisa bravis Jonathan farrow. Futures down by more than 1% on the S&P TK, it is Europe's summer of discontent. It really is. This is something folks has gone through the weekend with difficult news and the war in Ukraine. You see it in natural gas priced out of the Netherlands this morning, John. I'm going to use this phrase carefully. These are jump conditions. There's just no question about it. The Jordan Rochester of namura time this morning talking up the prospect of dropping down to 95 on Euro dollar after another brief break of parity this morning. Very sophisticated note folks. Jordan Rochester saying, look the shorts were there. They moved the market around the last time where Euro weakened under parody this time is different and it gives momentum rapidly to a 0.95 and out into the winter ever lower. And we're not framed for that. If you're just trying to get and you miss the shepherdson about 20 minutes ago, I'm Bloomberg TV, Brahma, wow. That quote, basically, and I'll read it verbatim. If you're not expecting recession in Europe, you haven't been paying attention. It's that bad. It has been that bad, and that has been all of the projections, and that's basically been baked into the Euro at this point or has it, right? I mean, that's where it goes to the Jordan Rochester point. He actually thinks this time is different that the last time that the Euro crossed through parody simply because the shorts and the sort of bearish positions have been more washed out, you have less of a positioning squeeze. I'm still focused on farm journal and the drought and it's not just in the U.S.. It's also in Europe, just adding to that summer of discontent. So Thomas the right question this morning. And it's a question we asked about ten years ago when we had the European debt crisis. Can the U.S. economy decouple? Be careful from the weakness we're seeing abroad and not just in Europe, but in China too. I don't think power will address that at Jackson hole. It's too sensitive, John. He's going to talk, you know, the usual script we're talking about and all the punditry that we're going to hear and had a great set of guests lined up as well. But he is central banker to the world, and he's going to adapt and adjust and I'm sorry, John, my head's a blur with a constant call from Goldman Sachs, but I think one part of the JPMorgan combine came out this weekend and said, look, they're going to do one more lift and that's it. The issue. And that was mislav matejko over at JPMorgan. I was too busy watching Leeds. I'm sure you score that goal. Kick the ball. We're going to go to that in a little bit. Just save the Premier League football talk. Kick the ball. Take the ball from further out. That's his advice for every single Premier League football team. ELISA. When it comes to this Federal Reserve, when this chairman acknowledges weakness, domestically or abroad, he risks coming across as maybe dovish when he doesn't want to. That's what's going to be interesting later this week when we hear from fed officials. How do they navigate that weakness, which is so obvious for all to see abroad. So the meeting minutes last week, I was reading through them, and I was reading through the responses, and a lot of people took them as somewhat negative, or hawkish, negative for markets in hawkish, even though they were really giving a nod to the concern about raising too quickly and not seeing necessarily the impact until it's too late. How much are they going to double down on that message? And are they going to basically say, look, we're going to hold rates higher for longer. And that will be the issue that will be the second point for markets rather than we're going to raise them incredibly high right away. We'll kick off our coverage on the ground. Thursday morning, looking forward to that. If you are just tuning in, here's the state of play in U.S. markets. Equity markets down lower negative on the S&P 500 futures off by more than 1% on the NASDAQ 100 down by 1.4%. We talked about that Euro weakness dollar strength Euro dollar clinging onto parity, negative 8 quarter of 1%. Crude positive half of 1% 91 22 on WTI and your U.S. ten year lease so basically unchanged. Two 97, 58. The action really is very much in the commodity space, at least in the natural gas space when it comes to Europe. Today, German Chancellor Olaf Schultz is heading over to Canada to meet with prime minister Justin Trudeau. The idea here potentially is partially to increase the imports of natural gas of oil from Canada. And this comes as natural gas prices in Europe have climbed to new record highs. They have more than doubled. Since June, just to give you a sense of the summer of discontent, and how much it is deepening in the entire Euro area. Also today, the pro farmer Midwest crop tour begins. And ends on Thursday, neither of you have taken me up on this. Tom John, honestly, this to me has been the story of the summer that was most underplayed. It is the incredible drought everywhere. And yes, I am biased because I just came from a more rural area where you can feel it in real relief, but this is all across the world. It's not just the U.S.. It's also Europe. It's also over in China, which you're seeing industrial production started to come in. What happens if the U.S. can not plug the gap in some of the props from Ukraine? I think this is important. Her more rural area, there were more black flies in people. Where did she go? What upstate New York? And they're actually weren't as many flies because it was so dry. This is my point. It was a new kind of terrain. Anyway, we could go into farm journal. I don't think we will. But I actually do think this is really important after market Zoom Video Communications reports earnings. Share that absolutely sky rocketed during the pandemic has lost all of that. How much can they really build the audience at a time when people are going back to the office? At least it's been a way too long. Have you forgotten that you can't discuss something really, really important for longer than 30 seconds without Tom just taking it somewhere less? I'm trying because this is actually really important. It's the world's food supply. It has imported. Great. I agree. Thank you. Lisa, welcome back. It's good to see you. Chris Harvey, joining us now. Head of equity strategy at Russ far cut. That was almost on the edge of line there, Lisa. It's going to be back. Chris Avi, awesome to have you with a certain I mean that. Chris, you wrote just a wonderful note in the last week. And I reached out to you when I told you that. It really was absolutely brilliant. You push back against this doom and gloom and the people that say this
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lisa bravis" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"I heard in the previous segment as well. And so far, the dollar has been a good place to kind of hide as we think about building portfolio of resilience but given the very good performance of our this year. I think there is limited expectation to how much more it can come to the rescue as we think about building portfolio portfolio resilience. So we definitely kind of think about dollar and international diversification as we construct this global portfolio. You know, John, I think that we're into the inner sanctum here. For those of you on radio behind way Lee is some extremely sophisticated math, John, behind her is either time reversal invariance of lambda or it's a formula to order pizza and BlackRock. I don't know which it is. It's not you. Who's responsible for your mess behind you? It's John and myself. It's really around this tradeoff between growth and inflation and how we are exiting the great moderation and into an environment that is a lot tougher in terms of the higher volatility micro volatility and the trade of featuring growth and inflation. Very cool. Thank you. Tom, I've just been making a list of some of the things people have told us this morning. Where Leah BlackRock just there. The Goldilocks outcome is off the table. They've downgraded developed market equities even further. Market shower, Michael shell of market field in the last hour or so. We could face a market accident at the start of the show, so now desire Franklin templeton were pricing in rate cuts next year way too soon. Too early to buy risk assets, pretty bearish start to the week from our guest Tom. These are institutional buy side and to see so now decide a claim Morningstar manager of the year, Lincoln, with way Lee there, John, on the measurement of what now, after the great moderation, that maybe is the raging debate of spring of next year. Everybody, I'm Lisa page. Just like that. Ramo, perfectly lined up this morning. It is just amazing. There is a very big concern when you see inflation and you hear the likes of sonata say that we could get down. To 7 and a half percent of 8% by yearend to me, that was the call that really stood out in my mind. What is the fed do with that? Very, very interesting to hear from everybody, including Lisa bravis, grandma, we missed you. It's great to have you back. I have no idea why you're leaving us again next week, but we're not happy about it. Very clear. What is it about? Not jet setting. I'm gonna be caravaning around here. In a canoe. Okay. The deer flies away. That's 6 tenths of 1% of the S&P from New York. Don't miss this. George saravelos of Deutsche Bank of foreign exchange with a rip roaring dollar this morning. This is Bloomberg. Now the latest news from New York City and around the world, here's Michael Barr. Tom Lisa John Donald Trump's one time adviser Steve
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lisa bravis" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Your dual mandate stable prices and maximum employment especially when the unemployment rate for black workers is still roughly double roughly twice the rate for white workers So unemployment rates for all racial groups have come down a lot and are now much closer to where they were before the pandemic hit So That's one thing I would say And that's important But the bigger point is this I do not at this time see the two sides of the mandate as intention I don't because you can see that the labor market is out of balance You can see that there's a labor shortage There aren't enough people to fill these job openings and companies can't hire and wages are moving up at levels that would not over time be consistent with 2% inflation over time And of course everyone loves to see wages go up and it's a great thing but you want them to go up at a sustainable level Because these wages are to some extent being eaten up by inflation So what that really means is to get the kind of labor market we really want to get We really want to have a labor market that serves all Americans especially to people in the lower income part of the distribution especially them To do that you've got to have price stability And we've got to get back to price stability so that we can have a labor market where people's wages aren't being eaten up by inflation And where we can have a long expansion too That's the good thing is you can have as we have We've had several of On a two year to two 65 63 So what have we got Equities are We've got yields lower We've got a dollar that's weaker and later it seems to me that just batting away the question about 75 basis points was sufficient to generate a monster rally in this market What does that tell you I mean honestly the idea that this was an outlier case that people thought that a 75 basis point rate hike was on the table for June to simply taking that off the table led to a rally that's one of the biggest that we've seen in weeks How does this really cohere with this idea that they have I'm sorry but credibility if they're basically turbocharging a market and leading people to basically reduce their near term rate hiking bets at a time when inflation shows no sign of slowing down Alongside Tom Kean and Lisa bravis I'm Jonathan farrow Let's listen to the chairman and south from what he had to say about 75 basis points 75 basis point in an increase is not something the committee is actively considering Assuming that economic and financial conditions evolve in ways that are consistent with our expectations there's a broad sense on the committee that additional 50 basis increases should be on 50 basis points which should be on the table for the next couple of meetings They chairman of the Federal Reserve TK that just goes to show how much was priced in this market And how difficult it is to out hawk this market with expectations so elevated going into this meeting He mentioned the 75 basis points and I would suggest John after that off the question from Colby Smith to the Financial Times he gave some immense nuance of neutrality And the red sticky that Bloomberg produced a 1448 says it all won't hesitate to go higher than neutral if needed and there seemed to be almost a massive instantaneous sigh of relief over the banded Ness the malleability of the study of neutrality And I really think that was something exceptionally important in this huge market move There is a ton of debate as to whether they will go beyond neutral And how much higher they will ultimately go in the end destination as well When I go through some dates with you all now just to work out where we go in here So we've got June and July June 15th July 27th they're the next couple of meetings for the chairman is referring to and basically put in a 50 basis point rate hike on the table We have CPI prints on May 11th June 10th July 13th August 10th And after July you've got a meeting from the Federal Reserve on September 21st This Tom for me for many people at for the moment at least puts the summer to bed Take you to Jackson hole you reset TK you look at the data that's come in and then we can have a bigger conversation about the future because as you point out the move to neutral expeditiously a word they like to use is largely baked in now but what next stuff to that is going to be dependent on what this data looks like through the summer The calculation and neutral is huge huge debate I looked at one paper from the late Robert caplan of the Dallas fed And John they have three measurements of neutral within that paper And I'm not willing to say if neutrals July if neutrals September if neutrals beyond that but what I heard was a chairman who made clear they are going to be very supple as they move forward on the data trying to figure out where that neutrality is Well Wayne witnessed just then the lace over the last hour or so I think it was the chairman Tapping the brakes on a runaway hawkish train What you get in after that as a consequence is an equity market that's higher and arguably financial conditions that are looser It's going to be interesting to see how this evolves for the next few weeks and months because I think we should remind our audience of what happened at the last fed meeting when the NASDAQ absolutely ripped by more than three and a half percent and then the following month was absolutely dreadful So fed day price section doesn't tell you everything Let's just caveat that there But financial conditions tighten for a reason And that was the objective Lisa This I don't know what this is Well you raised a good question Is he going to be happy with this price action since it's basically the equivalent of a 25 basis point rate hike if you take a rate cut I should say based on the easing and financial conditions that basically this is the wrong transmission mechanism whether it will stick is another story The other interesting thing is this comes even though this fed chair seemed a lot less confident about a soft landing He called it a soft dish landing and that it was going to be challenging to get there I mean he seemed to be conceding that this is going to be a struggle Should we get to a man who disagrees with this whole decision Tom The gentleman from Dartmouth David blanche flower joins us of course is wage curb is iconic in the study of the American and indeed the British labor economy is well professor blanche Farr thank you so much for joining This morning one of the great concerns here that we're hearing in every surveillance interview is a labor economy on fire Chairman Paul mentioned that three four times How fully employed is the backdrop as he searches for a neutral rate I thought all that was quite astonishing I'm sitting looking at a labor market where the employment to population rate is 5 percentage points below where it was in 2000 It's a percentage point below where it was in 2020 And what we know about hot labor markets is that actually the unemployment rate is not the right indicator What you need to look at is what happens out in outside the labor force And basically if the labor market was hot and firms wanted to get workers they can find them They've left the labor force and they left the labor force at 18 months ago So I didn't buy really any of that I thought this whole thing about the labor market being hot Didn't make any sense at all with 7 or 8 million jobs below to the equivalent of where we were in 2000 I thought can I just say time I thought it was a couple of things I thought I thought the questioning and the things that have been going on at the fed were just it's like everyone's singing from the same sheet It's as.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lisa bravis" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"This potential risk Yeah it's hard to pin it on one Lisa but when you think about risk appetite across the board I'd say I would focus on the central banks and most involved Q three So the fed probably leads the way followed by banking with bank of Canada so it's in those markets Whether it's high yield bonds or equities tough to sort of parse those differences but I would go to the dice here parts of risk So within markets do you want to focus on or do you think the risk is more susceptible to the high end I think it is the assets that typically are the higher beta most likely of me most impacted by this cutback balance sheet The reason why I ask Michael is because there's a lot of disagreement about how much momentum there is in the U.S. economy withstand The potential for 2.8% fed funds rate to withstand some of the rate hikes that you and others are saying is absolutely necessary in order to curtail what you see as dangerous inflationary pressures So at this point do you think that the fed can actually orchestrate a soft landing at a time when there are diverging viewpoints and diverging data points underpinning the economy It will be very difficult to fall at the soft landing I think Lisa was always going to be a challenge when you think about the massive amount of stimulus in the system over the last couple of years both monetary and fiscal the rebound from COVID on top of that commodities play That's an incredibly big ask to talk about a soft landing So it was always going to be tough I think it's gotten much tougher The chance of it happening probably is falling by the day So it's a 50 50 maybe it's probably not much better than that All right Mike we've talked about risk assets We've talked about the bond market Can I just get your thoughts quickly on the dollar which in light of everything we heard from the fed this week is heading for its biggest weekly decline since early February Yeah we think that's a mistake We're actually dollar roles and it's interesting that you can think about this from two perspectives It's really if you look back over the last couple of years and also just over the last couple of months the dollar has emerged as the top safety So that should be a win with the agreement situation intensifies which seems likely over the next month or two And secondly if you focus on really one of the meat and potatoes types of things in FX it's interest rate differentials And I would say that the least from our view there's more potential for the market to increase its expectations for hiking from the fed than there is from the ECB probably from the Bank of England So that also should benefit the dollars We're actually very positive on the U.S. dollar right now Matt Schumacher thank you fantastic cool earlier this year on the bond market might Schumacher there of Wells Fargo If you go back and find the clip earlier this year it's just me asking questions really We really going to get to one 51 60 when we're down there 1% at least we got there pretty quickly In fact very quickly One 15 at the close the last time the fed met before this meeting and then close to 2% this week Remember when we were talking earlier this year even at the very beginning of the year could the ten year yield actually get 2% I don't know And that was a bold call to say by year end It would get to 2% We're well through that And now the question is what is the cap right What is the point where it becomes self limiting And that conversation has changed The narrative is we don't know what that cap is anymore Only 18 days into March It's a long month isn't it It's how crazy March Madness and I'm looking at my bracket This is a basketball thing stateside which is my least favorite American sport but I'm trying to participate Katie lines why are you crushing this Your number two in this league I'm looking at the results now I honestly usually Virginia is in there and usually my loyalty to the who's indicates that I will always put them winning the entire tournament They're not even in it this year which breaks my heart but it makes me think a little bit more logically about my bracket and I actually put a little bit more stretch Wisconsin Wisconsin Yes I've got Most people do I've got myself beating Tom keen at the moment at least anyway And I did not participate Why didn't you participate Because I don't know anything about this Neither do I you think I do What did you do then I have my producer Okay you outsource it Jamie did this Let's reset now and look ahead So about 20 minutes time I could do that Lisa don't worry Thank you If you just ask 6 tenths only S&P on the NASDAQ with Dan about 6 tenths of 1% as well We're 20 minutes away from a really important phone call between the president of the United States and the Chinese leader President Xi and kaby it might take some time to find out what actually took place on their call but it starts in 20 minutes Yeah it'll be interesting to see when we get the readouts and if those readouts say anything decisive other than that they talked is the U.S. just going to say that if indicated what it already was going to say that it's going to ask China to put pressure on the Kremlin to end this conflict but we already know that Biden is going to say that So I guess the real question is what news from comes from this It's likely going to be on Beijing's side if they give any indication of where they're coming down ultimately on this conflict The administration has been very open about what they think about this Lisa they're doing that again this morning sexually blinking yesterday Wendy Sherman today every nation must call on Putin to end this war It's clearly what they want to hear in public from the Chinese government And then of course there's the question even if they do are we overstating China's influence over Russia right now Are we overstating Xi Jinping's influence over Vladimir Putin Now let me ask you this important question Do you feel more rested at the end of the week when TK's not here for a couple of days You really are going to do this to me Did you feel more relaxed at ease Really I mean honestly I've got to be honest This year has been incredibly long And it's not just for me it's for everyone as we deal with all of the vagaries And the really difficult news flow TK takes me late last night His flight was delayed by 5 hours He's an unhappy man And you were crying for I was not crying for Kaley great to have you with us in the seat And now you're going to be with us early next week as well So thank you Kelly lines Lisa bravis and Jonathan farrow Lisa shallot of Morgan Stanley 20 minutes away on Bloomberg TV looking forward to that future slower This is Bloomberg.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lisa bravis" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Maria what we saw take place last night was stunning a firefight around the side of Europe's largest nuclear power plant What's the reaction from the Europeans being this morning Yeah and have you said we have to be very careful around the reporting of this What we do know of course is that the International Atomic Energy Agency has said that this was in fact shelled by Russian weapons but the reactors have not been affected There is no nuclear radiation or leakage coming out of this but of course there are two people injured here The big question for NATO ministers and foreign ministers gathering here in Brussels is who controls this site and what are they intending on doing and what I get from the people that I've been speaking with the entire morning is that they do worry that Vladimir Putin on the one hand is saying I have no intention of hurting Ukrainians but of course on the ground it's a very different picture and everything that we've seen so far from the language but also the military actions from Russia are escalating They also worry that Russia is trying to form or force a conversation about nuclear Vladimir Putin talked about nuclear deterrence yesterday His foreign minister repeated that And today of course we have those terrible pictures of really shocked a lot of Europeans this morning one official told me this is now plaguing with fire and this is now serious on that front So we have to be very careful but NATO today also concern about escalating in any way Maria what is the trajectory of this war It's a completely unfair question but I'm going to go with it What is the trajectory of the war this weekend There's a nuclear plant There's another one to the west northwest X number of miles and beyond that There's another one way northwest and then another one passed that What's the trajectory of the war the land grab this weekend Well let's get to the capitol and take control of the entire country and as you say we're seeing this for pretty much every point around Ukraine Ukraine is completely trapped from pretty much every angle We see that the Russians have not been able to take over the big cities but that is the next big plan And of course Vladimir Putin saying we have an operation that's quote going according to plan repeating It is my conviction that Ukrainians and Russians are the same people and we continue on a mission Remember Tom in Russia the word war it's not allowed it as bad You have to talk about a special operation to free up Ukraine from Nazis and just very quickly also Tom There is a cultural aspect to this The word Nazi in Russia is very politically charged It is a very terrible insult when you use this It goes back to the history of the Second World War It goes back to the great Stalin victory when you use this word it really dehumanizes the other person to say you're a Nazi It just means you're a terrible person And of course the government of Russia and Vladimir Putin's eyes is on a mission to get rid of this Of course we know the reality on the ground Again as I said is very different and the Ukrainians did vote in an election for zelensky to be the president who is now by the way an icon in the country Meanwhile Emily President Biden has said everything is on the table including sanctions on oil and I'm wondering how much we know about reporting that Biden is encouraging domestic producers to actually pump more so that they can provide a buffer if we should go further in terms of the sanction front Well there's absolutely pressure on President Biden to go further I mean you heard Nancy speaker Nancy Pelosi during her presser yesterday when she was asked about it She did not mince words She said I'm all for banning And then we saw that bipartisan effort coming forward with the actual legislation to have a ban And then besides Biden's own party he is under pressure from oil executives who say you need to move up the production of shale that the U.S. does need to work on becoming more energy independent right now They know it's not going to happen overnight but there needs to be a plan in place At this point we haven't seen The White House bunch too much on this issue They said that they're worried that any sort of ban can wind up hurting the economy hurt Americans if the pump I mean gas prices are a major consideration for President Biden It's something that's very much on his mind And the mind of all Democrats is they try to make sure they're holding on to Congress in the upcoming midterms But at the same point I mean we've seen this war continue on We've seen the pressure continue Clearly there's a lot of bipartisan support for Ukraine We're going to be seeing another funding request come through $10 billion for a humanitarian aid and military aid to Ukraine we're expecting that to be considered next week as Congress prepares to fund the government to fund The White House that amount of money as well There's a lot of support for this And I think the pressure is just going to continue on Biden to do something about banning the U.S. purchase of Russian oil How many thank you that precious building Emily Wilkins in Washington Maria today in Brussels today Tom for most people last night was an escalation of step up of risk Had a NATO members respond That's where things start to get difficult If you believe in what the French president was said to belief after that call with the Russian president yesterday that things are going to get worse before they get better what's the next move from European What does it look like The next move for me and we're not NATO members John but within the politics of this I'd listen to experience military authorities as we have with general Hodges and general Kim it both of them were grim which means you have to apply material to the threat That's what I would look for next NATO supplying Ukraine in a huge way So that's a strategic military decision Tom a sanctions part of the next move too and what's the step up in sanctions look like What is Europe doing in terms of hydrocarbons Aren't we back to square one We are some in a big way Tom Kane Lisa bravis and Jonathan farrow futures down about 1% on the S&P Yields in 7 basis points were lower to one 76 83 and crude at one tenth of more than 2% This is Bloomberg.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lisa bravis" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"The day that we had a lot of this going on was actually the day that Victor Yanukovych a Russian backed leader was fleeing Ukraine This was a moment in which Russia lost that sphere of influence in Ukraine and you had former premier coming out and saying this is a new Ukraine a European Ukraine Then you have today defender of the far land and we've already heard from Putin in a statement talking about the crisis right now on this day which is Veterans Day in Russia saying that he wants a path for diplomacy but not when it comes to Russian red lines Those Russian red lines must be in the diplomatic talks Now already the United States says that's non negotiable because that is a veto on Ukraine and Georgia entering NATO and also pulling back NATO troops to the 1997 line Hey mate I've got to say really looking forward to the interview a little bit later amory horta and alongside Maria Anne Marie catching up with the Ukrainian foreign minister Tom that interview taking place around three 30 Eastern Time And again let's go 8 hours out on that or 7 hours out I should say John and you're deep into the evening And it gets us to where are we tomorrow morning Not U.S. morning but European morning and you wonder after a one day pause is it a launch of further developments here There was some language used by the British prime minister and the president of the United States They both used the same phrase tranche one the first tranche term of sanctions Just implied there's more runway here this more to come Yeah and they've got a new confidence in the coordination particularly with Germany and the United States It's home Kane Lisa bravis and Jonathan farrow futures up 7 tenths of 1% on the S&P yields are by three basis points to one 97 from.