17 Burst results for "Lil Brainard"
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lil brainard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Countdown to the close, Bloomberg's comprehensive cross platform coverage ahead of the U.S. market close, starts right now. This is the countdown to the close about 6 minutes left to go here in the trading session. Romaine boss stick alongside scarlet food. We're joined right now by our colleagues, Carol massar and Madison mills. Welcome to our audiences across Bloomberg television radio, as well as for those folks streaming on YouTube. Carol master, we talk about the market that was so lasered in here on a couple of key data points, the CPI data yesterday in the retail sales numbers today. Those have come and gone. And we're now seeing the market reaction and it's a little bit mixed here. It seems like some people think that this maybe is all clear and other people saying, well, the fed's going to be in the way. Yeah, we have a good debate continuing here. You like economic growth, don't you? I love economic growth. You know, but I'd like to come down. No landing soft landing. I don't know. Hey, listen, one thing I noticed, there's three women against one guy. I'm just going to tell you a romaine. You better watch it. All right, let's talk about speaking of what I'm watching is a semiconductor sector. There was a slew of news, so let's bring it up for everybody on TV and on Bloomberg originals and YouTube. Sex is pretty much little changed here. But Taiwan Semiconductor, that stock is down about 5 and a half percent. You know, you had the 13 F filings, hedge funds. A lot of them piling in to Taiwan semi last quarter, but this was happening just as Warren Buffett sold 86% of his short term stake cutting it just after months that he disclosed he had that $5 billion stake. So TSM certainly under pressure and I wanted to bring up Intel two. It's flat right now. We've got a story on the Bloomberg about how Wall Street is bracing for Intel to cut its record dividend. So it's just something we're keeping an eye on, Maddie. Something we're keeping an eye on also regarding those retail numbers from this morning. And those consumer floodgates are just ripping open as we know all 13 retail sales categories, rose last month, but take a look at this chart spending at restaurants and bars rose 7.2% that's the most since March of 2021. This data point is the main proxy for services in the retail sales report. So this is critical data when we're looking at as we try to kind of cling to any signs of disinflation on the good side, this figure is just showing that stickiness of demand for services. We continue to see on the services side definitely seems to be the ammunition for the fed to remain hawkish here, the balance right now between the economic growth, the resiliency of that spending, and the reaction function by the fit on change right now on an S&P 500 down two tenths of a percent on the Dow. The NASDAQ up about 5 tenths of a percent and some of the cyclical and small cap names out in front here on the day up about 8 to 9 tenths of a percent on the Russell 2000. And I'm looking at the sector performers here in the S&P 500 energy off by more than 2% as oil prices fall. Energy actually among the 11 industry groups has the smallest gain of all the sectors that are still up for the year. And remember, the S&P 500 is higher for the year. So that's pretty notable, given that it was the best performing group last year. And a lot of people still say there's a lot of value to be found in those energy companies. Well, we'll see that they actually look for it here. Of course, there is still some economic concerns. One reason why you see the drop in energy prices and of course EID data that we got a little bit earlier this showed one of the biggest jump in stockpiles that we've had. I think going back all the way to June of 2021. So definitely some concerns that maybe the demand isn't there pioneer natural among some of the big energy names that are moving lower here on the day. They're down 5%. Meanwhile, you have comstock, which is actually up 4% natural gas producer. And by that's largely because of some cost cutting that we're learning on the Bloomberg terminal today. So maybe the reaction there is what's making them the outlier here on the day. Meanwhile, you go back to the top of the screen here, any concerns here about a potential slowdown in digital ad spending that might have been put to rest by the report that we got out of trade desk earlier today. Those shares of 27%. The company not only had a great quarter, but standing by its forecast for the full year, both in terms of revenue as well as on EPS. So some people think that maybe the sell off that we saw in that ad space was a little bit too much, similar story for silvergate capital, which of course had a massive sell off. Those shares, which of course were up in the double digits yesterday, rising another 23% here on this day. And Carol, of course, we then go back, of course, to the big number, Maddie was just talking about it that retail sales number. You see the aggregate change, they are on your screen right now. That is resiliency Carol master of 3%. Tell me otherwise. It's unbelievable, right? Interesting to see everybody kind of out in full force in January, spending, and it was really broad based in terms of the expenditures that we saw from consumers. Having said that, our David Westin caught up with Brian deese earlier on Bloomberg radio Bloomberg TV. Of course, the president's top economic adviser, those stepping away as we know Lil brainard will take his spot. But David asked him about inflation coming down and if we can continue to see the pace of declines continuing, check it out. As you move down, certainly you're less likely to see the kind of deceleration in
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lil brainard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"In 6 21 a.m. here in London, good morning, a time for check of the markets then. In terms of European stock futures they're half all tens of 1%, the stock 600 though yesterday dropped the most in a month, has that start of the year rally turned. In terms of earnings, Ericsson sees a first quarter adjusted ebit somewhat lower than last year, remember that overall though the stock 600 index actually up 19% In the next out to next march, the market is currently pricing a hundred basis points of fed cuts, which is quite substantial. So those are the two big questions for the market right now is really how is this growth going to evolve? They're really less concerned now about inflation falling back to trend. Okay. We've also had a couple of senior Federal Reserve officials yesterday talking about the Central Bank making progress in its inflation fight, but that it would take time again the message about it taking time to bring inflation back to the 2% target. What else did we learn? We've had a whole host of fed speakers this week. Yeah, we really have the ones yesterday were the two most important ones that we've heard from John Williams and Lil brainard are the senior advisers really to Jerome Powell and they're part of the inner circle. So it's notable yesterday that none of them mentioned the word 5%. They didn't say anything very concrete about that, which to me shows that as head of the dove camp Lil brainard might be pushing eventually for this February hike to be the last one. Now, she also said something which I found notable. She said that there is a range of views on what it's going to take to bring the sticky entrenched inflation back down to pre-pandemic levels. That's this core services CPI. The part of inflation that we're worried that the tight labor market might be pushing wage inflation and then entrenched in those kind of in this kind of sectors. Now, why is that important? The fed is set up this narrative that they need to see weaker growth that would lead to then weaker wage inflation that would then lead to lower prices. The problem we're having now is it's happening in the opposite direction. We're seeing lower prices before wage inflation turned before the economic activity turned around. GDP is still printing on a three handle the last three quarters jobless claims are still extremely low. And we're seeing this happen while we're seeing inflation fall and especially the sticky components of fall. So she, I think yesterday was really making some room that it could be possible to see further moderation in inflation without a significant loss in employment and then I jumped to conclusions without a significant loss to GDP growth. So it will really have to see what language Powell uses on February 1st, but it seems to me that given what we heard from these two most influential members that they didn't mention this word 5% that possibly a pause in February is in the cards. Okay, something to watch out for if I were to tell thank you for very much for taking us through all of that latest fed commentary. Okay, let's send our attention to the UK where employers are hiring apace in January, despite the economic gloom, the recruitment and employment confederation says that a 180,000 new job vacancies were added in early 2023. Well, early 2020 1st January basically, this ahead of the retail sales data that we have out at 7 a.m. this morning. Bloomberg's UK correspondent Lizzie Bergen is here. So employers are taking on more staff. Why? I thought it was all dismal out there for business. Well, yeah, the rec says job ads were up by a quarter in the first week of the year compared to last year, even though G FK says that consumer confidence fell for the first time in four months. So what it suggests is that the economy is holding up, despite the cost of living crisis, firms are having to hire because of the labor shortages, and that's why in this week's jobs data, you saw that wages were rising at the fastest pace on record outside the pandemic, but the reason for the low confidence is that inflation swallowing those pay rise. The good news is though we heard from the governor and drew Bailey of the Bank of England in an interview yesterday, he's been in Wales, not in the Alpine pastures elsewhere, but he said that after two months of declining inflation, it does seem that the UK is getting past the worst of the cost of living crisis. Okay, well let's talk about ground shops who was in Davos talking about growth and admitting Brexit has caused quote significant challenges for UK businesses. Yeah, I should say notably the UK as francine mentioned only sent a skeleton delegation because Rishi sunak, Jeremy hunt and Andre Bailey didn't go. And it does prevent sunac reinforcing the stereotype of being a globe trotting ex banker, but it was a wide open golfer Keir Starmer so he could present labor as the party of business. Now shops repping the government did try to rebut this criticism that the government isn't managed. It isn't focusing enough on growth and it's just managing Britain's decline. He says that Britain wants to create a Silicon Valley with a British edge, but his speech was light on detail, business leaders in the room told my colleague for Aldrich, it didn't do much to reassure them, whereas to starmer's credit, he was much more specific about wanting to build closer ties with the EU, work with the U.S. on subsidies in terms of how he'd grow the economy. Okay. Yeah, very interesting. Lizzie, thank you so much for being with us Bloomberg's UK correspondent Lizzie burden there took us through, well, everything that's happening here in the UK. Coming up next we'll have a check on the markets three of the program and more
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lil brainard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Alleged mastermind behind a series of shootings that targeted the homes of democratic officials in New Mexico is making his first court appearance on Wednesday in Albuquerque judge said Solomon Pena will be held without bond. Bernalillo county district attorney Sam Bregman outlined the next steps. He's still detained and he will be until a hearing and district court either at the end of this week in the first part of next week and then we'll proceed with some more formal charging documents. New Zealand prime minister Jacinda Ardern is announcing her intention to step down. During a press briefing Ardern said she felt leading a country as the most privileged job anyone can have, but also highly challenging, adding that one shouldn't do it unless they have a full tank plus a bit in reserve. British actor Julian sands is being identified as one of two missing hikers in the San Gabriel mountains, search and rescue teams have been looking for the 65 year old since he was reported missing Friday. I'm Brian shook. And I'm Brian Curtis sin Hong Kong. Let's get you caught up on this hour's top business stories and the markets. Economists are raising their economic growth estimates for China in 2023. It reflects the reduction of COVID restrictions in China. And it follows a resilient set of numbers seen at the end of last year. The world's second largest economy is now forecast to expand 5.1% in 2023 compared to earlier readings of 4.8% and keep in mind growth was 3% for all of last year. In the meantime, global growth concerns are rising. U.S. economic data overnight was weaker than expected U.S. and Asia equities are moving lower this morning. It's an environment where some global central banks, including the fed, say there's still a lot of work to do. Both Cleveland fed chief Loretta master and St. Louis fed president Jim bullard see much higher rates ahead. We heard earlier from Bloomberg's Edward Harrison. There about front loading this and then sticking pat. And I think when you combine this whole concept up front loading the rate hikes and getting to 5, 5 and a half, whatever it may be as quick as possible with this cumulative tightening that people like Lil brainard have talked about, it definitely says that we're relatively assured of what we should be sure of what the path is. That is, get to 5, 5 and a half as quickly as possible. And then hold as long as they possibly can until we are 100% sure that we're returning to the 2% target. Edward Harrison, Bloomberg senior markets, editor. Bridgewater associates has doubled its assets under management in China, sources say a key indicator for Bridgewater is now strongly bullish on short term bonds. The company's onshore hedge fund unit expanded assets to more than $3 billion. China is said to be launching a new government backed transport app. It will target government and state enterprise employees. It's not clear whether it will include didi globalist shushing service. That is by far the country's dominant ride hailing platform. In Hong Kong says it will stop requiring people infected with COVID-19 to isolate. The government is lifting the order as of January 30th. The mask mandate is now the only major curb left from the city's COVID zero days. In the markets, the CSI 300 in China is up two tenths of 1%. The hanging index is flat. The nikkei down 1.5%. Dollar yen, one 28, ten, the yield on the ten year treasury 3.32%. And gold is showing a gain of about two tenths of 1%, 1900, $10, 30 cents, a Troy ounce. Global news, 24 hours a day, and on Bloomberg quick take. Brought to you by 2700 journalists and analysts in a 120 countries. In Hong Kong, I'm Brian Curtis reporting. This is Bloomberg. Bloomberg radio
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lil brainard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"The national archive says it must consult with the Justice Department before releasing information on President Biden's handling of classified documents to Congress. This as House Republicans on the oversight committee requested all documents and communications between the archives and White House related to the matter. The alleged mastermind behind a series of shootings that targeted the homes of democratic officials in New Mexico is making his first court appearance on Wednesday in Albuquerque judge said Solomon Pena will be held without bond until his next hearing. This is an attack on democracy. I don't care if it's a Republican or a Democrat, but when you are using violence to attack elected officials, it is so unacceptable it's beyond the pale, bernalillo county district attorney Sam Bregman. The body of a missing Pennsylvania mother is being recovered two weeks after she went missing. Authorities announced they found the body of Jennifer Brown on Wednesday. I'm Brian shook. And I'm Doug prisoner at Bloomberg world headquarters in New York. Let's check this hour's top business stories in the markets. Two of the fed's most closely followed hawks are now calling for more interest rate hikes, St. Louis fed president Jim bullard was saying the fed is nearly into a zone that could be called restrictive, but it's not quite there yet, and the head of the Cleveland fed, Loretta mester was saying she believes the fed needs to keep going. We spoke on this topic with Edward Harrison Bloomberg senior market editor. There about, you know, front loading this and then sticking pat. And I think when you combine this whole concept up front loading the rate hikes and getting to 5, 5 and a half, whatever it may be as quick as possible with this cumulative tightening that people like Lil brainard have talked about. It definitely says that we're relatively assured of what we should be sure what the path is. That is, get to 5, 5 and a half as quickly as possible. And then hold as long as they possibly can until we are 100% sure that we're returning to the 2% target. That is Edward Harrison Bloomberg senior markets editor. After the bell in the U.S. Alcoa reported fourth quarter results that were a little disappointing and guidance on aluminum shipments for the full year also missed the mark, uncertainties are not surprising. They range from higher global inflation dwindling demand in Europe and a softer economic outlook in China, the world's largest consumer of aluminum. Today we had chairs in Alcoa down 5% in the late U.S. session. Discover financial services is warning of a possible twofold increase in its rate of charge of this year. The company is saying it could climb as much as 3.9%. Australian employment unexpectedly fell in December and the jobless rate held unchanged employers in Australia cut 14,600 rolls from the prior month compared with market expectations for an increase of 25,000 Australian bond yields are lower. The equity market is higher as a little bit of doubt creeps in as to whether or not we're going to see another interest rate hike from the RBA in February. We check markets every 15 minutes here on Bloomberg right now in Tokyo, the nikkei is down 1.2% in Hong Kong the hang seng is weaker by two tenths of 1%. On the Chinese mainland cheung high composite better by a tenth of 1% in sold the Cosby rising by four tenths of 1%. US Treasury yields are stable after tumbling in the U.S. session given some weak economic news, the ten year fell 17 basis points in U.S. trading right now in the Tokyo session to yield on the ten year is 3.34%, a two year at 4.05%. Global news 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg quicktake powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts, this is Bloomberg. Bloomberg radio on demand and in your podcast team. On the latest edition of the sound on podcast, I talk with Maya McGinnis, president of the committee for a responsible federal budget about possible solutions to the debt standoff. There are ideas that run the gamut from absolutely ridiculous and something that you would only see in a banana republic economy to possibly workable, but we shouldn't want to find it out. We shouldn't want to get there. We just want to use them. There should be one goal with one possible addition. The main goal here is get the debt ceiling increased without any drama. And second, if possible, it is a good idea to include some measures that would include the improve the fiscal health, along with raising the debt ceiling, which is what we used to do. But it seems that we are going to go through a much uglier negotiation than spending our time now and talking about what policies were a fiscal commission that could be attached. And instead, we're going to go through these things. So debt prioritization, it might work, it might not work. I think even talking about it and trying it could start to be very dangerous in terms of stability for the market. And certainly, it just dumb politically and operationally we're not sure if it can work. I do think there's probably a small package of healthcare reforms that has been put forward in budgets of both Republicans and Democrats. There's probably half a $1 trillion of savings of healthcare reforms that could be there. Fixing the way we calculate inflation using chain CPI is something that they should be able to do and reasonable spending caps, but they'd have to be on defense and non defense. They work if they are reasonable levels. They don't work if they're too aggressive. So some medium ones could be workable. Maybe a commission with a very short amount of time to work
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lil brainard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"I'm Dan Schwartzman that your Bloomberg world sports update, Brian. All right, thanks very much, Dan, the time here just about 15 minutes before the top of the hour. Let's get to our guest, Edward Harrison, Bloomberg senior markets editor to take a look at how the markets reacted to the bad news today. So as Doug pointed out in the past, particularly over the last month or so, a bad news has been kind of good news because it indicated that perhaps from the investor standpoint that the fed would be thinking about a software approach to interest rate hikes. That didn't happen today. They sold it pretty aggressively. I guess everybody knows the fed's position now, right? And the markets and the fed are in very different positions. Yes, that's right, Brian. I think that the market has been saying that the fed is going to cut at some point during 2023 because of a potential recession and the fed has been saying categorically. That's not going to happen. And I think that the market eventually will completely come around to where the fed is That said, I think that up until today, the bond market and the stock market have been sending very mixed signals about where we're headed because the stock market has been rallying on the back of this news as if earnings don't go down in a recession. So that would suggest that there's optimism there, especially when you look at credit spreads, also doing the same thing. On the other hand, we've never seen we've never seen the curve this inverted in the last 40 years. Right, and even the bond market is not pricing in if I present rate yet, right? It's still owning pricing in 4.9%, so I mean, how slow is this market to catch up with the fed? I think you could say that it's very much fighting the fed Bonnie. I think that what's very interesting to me is we look at some of the metrics that the fed follows just before I came on, I was looking at what the fed had said about the near term forward spread being something that says that the market wants the fed to cut, but the fed isn't going to cut. And we have the bad near term forward spread, which is the difference between three month bills and what the market expects in 18 months at -1%. Jay Powell told us when it gets to zero, that's a sign that recession is coming. So what the market is basically saying is the fed won't cut until they ensure that there's a recession. And the caveat here is that I don't even know if the data actually showed despite the retail sales numbers that there is going to be a recession in the near term. Maybe we get off with the softest landing. It was a pretty steep drop in retail sales. Down 1.1% month on month, almost double the previous. So one thing about the big drop in equities today and the big drop in yields was that we seem to have some acceleration now to the downside, which brings me to Jim bullard's position. Now, we know that he said he'd like to get he'd like to get to the terminal rate faster, perhaps than some of the other fed presidents. And in a sense, isn't that better because if you have the economy slowing like this now and you spread out the fed rate hikes as some fed policies are calling for over the next 6 months, you know, 25 basis points a meeting over four meetings is 6 months of tightening. Allowing a lot more time for the lag defect. That seems, you know, that seems to have a heavy impact on the economy. Definitely. And I would say that Loretta masters very much in line with where bullet is they were two of the speakers today from the fed. They're about front loading this and then sticking pat. And I think when you combine this whole concept of front loading the rate hikes and getting to 5, 5 and a half, whatever it may be as quick as possible with this cumulative tightening that people like Lil brainard have talked about. It definitely says that we're relatively assured of what we should be sure what the path is. That is get to 5.5 and a half as quickly as possible. And then hold as long as they possibly can until we are 100% sure that we're returning to the 2% target. What are we going to see next? What data points are we on the lookout for before the fed meeting? Because it's only two weeks away. Yeah, I think that we're looking at the GDP number, which comes out in the 26th because there is a dichotomy between some of the prints that we've seen in ISM services, what we saw today in terms of industrial production, what we saw in terms of retail sales and what the GDP now forecast. That's the now cast from the Atlanta fed is saying that saying even after the retail sales numbers were incorporated 3.5% for
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lil brainard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Pretty likely just because of what the fed has to do. But what's different this time, I think, is that if we have a recession, it's going to be a fed induced recession. And the fed can end the recession by subsequently easing monetary policy. The challenge for them is to not use too soon. That was built on the former New York fed president and of course Bloomberg opinion columnist sitting down with Tom kingdon and bremmer of Eurasia group on the top wrist of the year ahead. Top race for many of you, of course, is what happens with the Federal Reserve and paramo, I've got to say, looking at the fed, can we pick up on that line from mister David that he used there? What's different this time is that if we're going to have a recession, it's going to be a fed induced recession. The fed can end that recession by subsequently easing monetary policy. Of course, they can do that. Will they do that? It's a different question. Especially if inflation is still the preeminent precisely. As if that's the concern, they're not going to want to go in the other direction for fear of exactly what we were talking about with a boomerang kind of up and down kind of inflation spurts. The challenge for them is not to eat too soon. I think we all agree with bull dadly on that particular point. Or rather, the challenge might be for some coming into 2023 easing too late and taking their foot off the brake. Just to give you a sense of where the market is, fed funds futures are pricing in almost a half a percent of rate cuts by the end of this year. By the end of 2023. That's the big occupant. This is the big argument and the fed is pushed back and a lot of strategists say this is not going to happen. They're not going to cut rates. And yet that is actually being priced into the market right now. We talked for a while and we keep going back to this question and it might sound boring, but I think it is the question to be asking fed officials is the risk of doing too little greater than the risk of doing too much. When you heard chairman Powell answer that question a few times going into yearend, I found like the answer started to sound like a little bit more balanced. The November news conference, it was sort of emphatic, super asymmetric risk, no balance here, whatsoever. It kind of shifted. Got into the end of the year. Lil brainard, perhaps, had a bigger influence on some of the rhetoric coming out. It is a good question, but I think back to our conversation with Troy geschke, where a lot of the big investors can't forecast what's going to happen in the macro world. Neither can the fed. So this is the question at what point does politics become a more preeminent concern than trying to game at a macro situation that is completely opaque? Do you know what I'll be happy to talk about a whole lot less this year? Can we just park the Sam bankman free story? That's dropped by and Schneider's got to cover this for a living. I get a finale forgive me. But I'm so sick of this story. I just wanted to go away. I spent my New Year's Day rereading all the indictments. So you and I both brothers. You know, at the end of the day, there are a lot of charges being bought forth for him as well as his deputies and by the way, we're not even seeing all of his deputies come to the fore here. For example, the former Alameda CEO, nowhere to be heard of or found. But today's a big day because today he will be going down to a Manhattan court and pleading we expect not guilty. That draws this out for another year or so for you, John. This will take a long time. Should he plead not guilty to 8 criminal counts. So talk to us about the timeline. What are we thinking about here? Should he plead not guilty, then there's a process in which he will go to court, there will be a lengthy series of hearings, it will take a long time. The question is, does his plea change anywhere in that kind of time frame? This has already, remember at the beginning we were talking about, how is this going so slow? Why is he doing all these media appearances? Why hasn't having the regulator said anything? In the U.S., let alone abroad. Now we're at this place where things have moved so quickly since December 13th. That was the only just a couple of weeks ago here that we saw that this indictment came out. There was a headline that crossed just moments ago that Sam bankman fridas asked judge to redact the names of the co signers on the bail agreement. There is a question not only about the machinations of this case. But who's backing him? Who is involved with him? Who are some of the people other than his parents, which also are interesting given that they are Stanford professors who were in the profession of law. Yeah, and have worked with very big figures from Peter Thiel to Gary gensler. So a lot of names here who know the bank been freed, but when you look at that idea here that you can't know who the co signers are for this, there's a lot of frustration. This is a $250 million bond. He says he has a $100,000 in his own bank account. This is secured by his parents home, which is a very small fraction of that bond. At the end of the day, there's a lot of Sam's life that he himself is financed through FTX, which has been getting all of these allegations here about the money coming from customers. Well, we've been talking consistently about not just this particular case, but the ripple effects through the crypto sphere, but also beyond political sphere, as well as others. And I'm just wondering whether you still get the sense in your conversations that there is more on that front or have we really seen the bulk of it, which seems to be at least based on the stability we've seen in certain markets, it's already passed. It's definitely not passed because remember, there are a lot of bills sitting in Congress now. At the time where many constituents have lost money from FTX or Gemini or genesis, and they are clamoring for their regulators and their lawmakers to get it together. These lawmakers, many of them have met with Sam bankman freed, many of them have taken money from Sam bankman fried and his deputies, some of them have given it back, but at the end of the day, there's no clarity. An FTX has lobbied for some of these rules, binance has lobbied for some of these rules. At least the U.S.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lil brainard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Side. We have seen a lot of encouraging signs even in the last consumer price index numbers that things are turning over. We're seeing things work themselves out. Claudia saw that these Sam consulting founder and former Federal Reserve economist on the Federal Reserve, a lot of people on that page going into the fed meeting a couple of weeks away. A lot from New York is the price section as we look to close out a month in November over the last couple of days. Over the next couple of days, with equities up on a month and down on the session, we're down about 7 tenths of 1% on the S&P 500. Yields are basically unchanged on a ten year 360 seven. Twos versus tens though. I mean, it is absolutely amazing to see the curve as inverted as it is. And I don't think we should just gloss over it Lisa, twos tens, negative, almost negative AC basis points this morning. This used to be the key indicator to forecast recession and 12 to 18 months time. It is deeply inverted the most inverted going back to 1981. We heard from dean kurnit. We heard from Brian Weinstein. They see it going beyond negative a hundred basis points. Does this give any indication as to the duration or the depth of the recession or just simply signaling? We're due for a downturn. You had Claudia Santa. I do wonder whether we start to see a little bit more division on this Federal Reserve at the next meeting in the outlook, just how wide are the projections, how wide are the bands going into next year? Or is it Lil brainard and everybody else? I don't know, I think for a lot of people in the committee, I think you can say the same thing that brain has said, but also saying that chairman Powell said. I think you could say both. You can say both. He did. The key issue she'll be when we get down to three and a half percent Inflation. If let's say we get down to a level, does this Federal Reserve have the commitment to keep going? A lot of people say no, that they're going to actually loosen up, that they're going to perhaps respond more to the employment into the economic picture. If they do that, what does that mean for longer term inflation? What does that mean in terms of the resolve of this Federal Reserve to have the inflation mandate that it has traditionally? The chairman of House speaking on Wednesday, then the Federal Reserve decision coming on December 14th, been through the days a couple of times worth going over again. The end of 2022 is just around a corner on the second you get payrolls. That's this Friday. On the 13th to get CPI on the 14th, you get a fed decision. And this week I understand the Senate, lawmakers returning to Washington, D.C., Henrietta trace director of economic policy at Vader partners joins us right now. Henry after for you what's top of mind as Congress gets back to business. I think just like with y'all inflation is top of mind still, it's certainly going to be a huge focus as we consider roughly $2 trillion worth of legislation in the next two weeks. You've got an $840 billion defense authorization act. You've got a one one and a half $1 trillion government funding bill, and then you've got what could be about $300 billion worth of tax credits. And if the inflation argument is that this is really supply chain driven and COVID driven senators are going to be more apt to consider the R&D tax credit consider extending the EBITDA instead of the ebit shift that will save corporations roughly $86 billion between just one of those and then a 150 or so between the two of them and then tack on another batch of child tax credit expansion. And those are the main drivers of the Senate for the next two weeks. Obviously, heavily hinged on inflation, that argument for recession as well. Henrietta, this doesn't compute. On one hand, they're worried about inflation on the other, they're on the brink of passing, potentially a $300 billion stimulative bill that helps corporations and helps households across the country. How do these two things go together? It's an interesting dynamic where the problem here is that the tax credits expired at the end of last year. So if you speak with investors, you speak with a lot of lawmakers and certainly if you speak with corporations, it's not technically stimulus on the business side. It's just an extension of the status quo. I wouldn't anticipate that the markets receive a $300 billion tax bill as an inflation or government funding driven package. Instead, it's mostly an extension of things that we've had for the last 7 years as part of the 2017 tax bill that they're just expanding instead of driving us into a situation or corporations will have to pay more taxes due to just the expiration of those credits On the child tax credit side, I think that's the inflationary piece because that's seen as more of a domestic stimulus for individuals, which is obviously a much larger basket. And you'll hear that argument from Republicans that they don't think it should be extended right now. And you'll get the same on the COVID side. In the meantime, though, and you say the COVID side at the same time that the U.S. is trying to deal with what the potential fallout could be from unrest in China. I'm curious whether we can expect some sort of response whether there is any response or preparation for either way, supply chains to remain constrained for longer or sudden increase in demand for some of the same goods and materials that the U.S. is looking for as well. Absolutely. I think a really good leading indicator of how Congress is going to respond to that is going to come later on this week as early as Thursday when they start debating the national defense authorization act. There are several amendments that are already pending to that bill that pertain to China that are about national security threats are about, for example, TikTok and whether or not it can be on federal government employee computers and devices. I think you're going to see a precursor to that entire argument before they get into it really in earnest and the weeks ahead starting on Thursday when they do the NDAA. So I'd watch for that. It's trying to front and center for all of us this morning. That's for sure. Henrietta, thank you for being with us Henri trace there of Vader partners all trying to work out the consequences of the protests, the demonstrations laser over the weekend. This to me is the most important news over the weekend and potentially even of this year heading into next year. COVID zero and how long can it continue? Because that has completely suppressed growth. And when you start looking at expectations over at Deutsche Bank for 2% growth globally next year, which is basically in line with recessionary global forecasts in the past. How much does this hinge on China remaining shut? How much is this hinge on them continuing with their COVID zero? So what Goldman had to say about an exit from COVID zero was interesting. They said this, the central government may soon need to choose between more lockdowns and more COVID outbreaks. The current situation imposes further downside risk to our below consensus Q four GDP forecast. A 30% subjective probability of reopening before QT next year includes some chance of a forced and disorderly exit. That last piece is not something I've thought about much until after the weekend and the events we all saw play out there are forced and disorderly exit of COVID zero. What does that look like? I was thinking the same question. I can't pretend to be a China expert. I can say that as I was reading through different pieces
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lil brainard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"All 11 them right now all are in the grain being lend higher by technology, information technology, and consumer discretionary stocks. S&P 500 seventy points higher as of 1.8%. Down Jones Industrial average, 402 points higher than 1.2% and the NASDAQ 100 right now. That is up 313 points. That's a rise of 2.7%, which at the markets for you every 15 minutes during the trade a day right here on Bloomberg radio. I'm John Tucker. That's your Bloomberg business flash, Matt and Paul. All right, John Tucker, good stuff. We appreciate it and we appreciate you and talk about what we really appreciate it up market and that's what we've got today. Pretty Gupta joins us Bloomberg markets correspondent. She never left. She co anchored for Tom Keene in the 9 o'clock hour. The only thing she's like, I'm not leaving because I'm gonna do a market check here at the top I'm surprised she stayed. I only took off my bow tie a Prada shoes, my glasses. Gotcha. Now I'm creating her product shoes. Yes, she does. That's a good look. All right, what do you got for us Gritty here in this upmarket? Well, I mean, man, we covered it, I guess I could just go home now, but basically you have a lot of green on the screen. I think this is really interesting actually because so many people came into yesterday when features were actually lower and said, look, this is a bull market. Last week's rally is not going to stick at all. And now here you are seeing this laundry list of reasons to basically buy. Now a lot of these are fundamental reasons. Some of this is technicals as well. We talked about this in the last hour, 50 day, a hundred day, that round number 4000 the stock market just blasting through them. This morning, coming out with some retail earnings, Walmart and Home Depot, signaling that let the consumer is still buying at the So you won that bet and that means what? She has to take me to the dairy Queen at the pilot truck stop in Hebron, Ohio. It's right off of that's a road trip. Which I will do when he can order something off the menu. He's on a diet right now and he can't actually have anything. He died anymore. It's a new lifestyle. Okay. Which means nothing on the dairy Queen menu. True, true. Anyway, it does look like it does look like a trend, doesn't it? That inflation is coming down. And in fact, every economist we've spoken to have said has said, this is coming down. The only big problem on CPI at least is the rents, right? I don't know what the breakdown is of the factory gate prices, but that just helps. Which can I point out was my thesis of why I said CPI had not peaked. It was because the housing stuff and you said it was on commodities. Regardless, to your point, Chris Waller really made a point about this. He said, don't Lamarcus shouldn't actually get too excited about this preliminary data. Lil brainard actually addressed it as well. And she says, preliminarily, it is reassuring. So yeah, you want to make a bet, double or nothing. What do I get if I win? Whatever you want, Gritty. I'll let you anchor the show. You got to take me. Oh, that's the new place across the street from here in our building. It used to be lesur, which if I have to take him to Ohio, he has to take me like domestically. So I want to be taken to the IHOP in Texas, Dallas, Texas, because it's the best I hop in the country. I love the big deal. And I haven't had it in a very long time. That is and then we'll go to the stockyards for breakfast. We'll have some way less rancheros. That's an experience. Fort Worth? Yeah, yeah, nice. All right, so when I see the Walmart and Home Depot numbers, my takeaway is the consumer still pretty strong here. I mean, how can you have a recession when you've got full employment, consumers still out there spending? Well, because you won't have full employment. Ken Griffin yesterday at the new economy. Is he at the new economy for him? Yes. Yes, he is the new economy forum in Singapore saying that telling Eric schatzker Bloomberg new economy forum. Yes, sorry. The Bloomberg new economy for him, telling Eric schatzker, Bloomberg, Eric schatzker, that he thinks unemployment U.S. unemployment is going to rise to more than 4%. And that will be very difficult to skirt a recession. I mean, worth three point for me. For me, four seems mild. But for the kids today, four is difficult, you know? Yeah, I don't know. Even my number three offspring got a job. What kids are you referring to? The kids basically, the kids who think like 7% is the highest they've ever seen in mortgage rates, right? Me and Paul remember a time when they were 17%. Back in the day back in the day, exactly. I don't know, I think this market is looking for a reason to go up here. And you know, the question is, obviously, is it just simply a bounce within the context of a bear market? Or is it a big short squeeze last week? People have placed a lot of wagers in ETFs against this rally. But we're almost at the yearend target. So the strategists that we survey across the street have a yearend target on average of 4055. Right now we're trading at what 4019. Yeah, so it'll be interesting to see if we continue to rise or hold here rather than. But look, bulls have history on their side. A lot of them are waiting for the midterms to end before hopping back in. So maybe this will stick. In the midterms already end, don't you know? Not really. We are one House seat away from a GOP majority. Don't you think that's going to happen? I'll bet you that happens. Triple or nothing. All right, critic Gupta, good stuff, market correspondence, correspondent joining us here in our Bloomberg interactive broker studio. Let's head down to Washington
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lil brainard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Were stocks trying to find their footing. I'm calling it a wobbly market. I just feel like, you know, certainly after the run up that we saw last week, it's a very different tone on this Monday. Having said that in terms of outperformance, I know you guys know I was going to go here, but I'm looking at the Chinese names that trade here in the U.S.. I had looked. But they were up more than 3% of their highs today, still up about 1.6% the NASDAQ golden dragon China index, but JD.com, Alibaba, Baidu, you're talking about 2%, 3% or three point four and a half percent for JD.com, higher. And this has to do with the indebted and troubled Chinese property sector market. It looks like Chinese officials doing things to help that sector and then again on Friday and I think this is carry over those restrictive COVID-19 policies. Maybe there's some softening so that's why you see some enthusiasm. I would only argue though that you got to be careful because this news and tone can changed him in 24 hours. Yeah, and we're going to get earnings from Alibaba on Thursday and then JD.com on Friday. So potentially get some insight there. I got to talk to Bitcoin. I was gone last week, but I was glued to my phone, even though I was on vacation, keeping an eye on what was happening with the FTX story. We're seeing Bitcoin down about half a percent right now. It was up earlier above 17,000, but right now, 16,276. Bitcoin was higher, but now lower after binance's CZ said earlier today that he plans to launch a crypto recovery fund to help industry players who are facing a liquidity crunch, details of that remain to be seen. We don't have didn't SPF have one of those as well as that point. Well, he did. In the spring and we've seen how that has certainly played out. Hey, speaking of SPF, he was questioned by police and regulators in The Bahamas on Saturday. So reigns to be seen the fallout from after all right, well a saga we're keeping an eye on here. Also keep an eye on the broader market here. We've been swinging back between gains and loss this year. Basically, the S&P relatively unchanged on the day the NASDAQ in the red, the outperformer on the day, actually remained some of those industrial and cyclical stocks here with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up about three tenths of a percent. And the down transports up more than one. Take a look underneath the surface for some of these individual sector levels. Healthcare, materials, energy leading the way, but not a ton of gains to write home about to the downside Romain. It's similar in story. We have discretionary financials, and then real estate is interesting because you'll really rising today and that's a reversal of what we've had in the last few days. Yeah, and when you talk about the consumer discretionary names as well as big tech, a mixed bag on the day with Microsoft Amazon Tesla in the red meta Netflix and AMD higher on the day, of course, we got that news out of Bloomberg reporting that Amazon said to be cutting about 10,000 jobs. Microsoft shares down about one and a half percent on the day as a lot of people start to question some of those tech valuations, particularly in the software space. But then take a look at Etsy Etsy shares up about 7% here. There is still some optimism out there for consumer spending just that it's not going to be as broad based across all of these different platforms. Maybe Amazon suffers an Etsy becomes the beneficiary. And of course, Tim, you can have your eye on the crypto space, a silvergate capital. We've been keeping an eye on that as a barometer here for crypto sentiment. Those shares rebounding here on the day up about 6%. The big barometer I'm looking at Carol, I think you're on board with me here is the massive dollar weakness that we've seen last week, a little bit of a bounce today, but testing some of those long-term averages. See being blender over at Stockton writes in and says that that dollar weakness has not been out of sync with other assets. It's actually pretty consistent when you think about the rate differentials as well as the move within the equity market. It is sort of this dollar weakness that's been boosting some of the equity markets as of late. And I think sort of a key bellwether go forward. One thing about the technicals of dollar weakness. All right, I think it's a really important thing we heard it from CEOs throughout the earnings season, also important is what we're hearing from fed speakers. They're out in full force. You know guys, one month from now will be our last fed meeting. FOMC meeting of the year. What would we talk about if that were the case? Exactly, pivot. We have to fire it and go home. That's a good point. Having said that, Lil brainard, in a fireside chat at our Washington D.C. bureau talking. Was our actual fireplace there? There might have been. You know, I've been down to the Washington Bill in a while. Romaine, focus, focus. Okay, so our Peggy Collins, she is the bureau chief of Washington, D.C. here at Bloomberg news, talking with Leo brainer. She's the advice chairman. She talked about that maybe we're getting closer to a point where in terms of rate hikes they could be smaller. Here's what she had to say. I think it will probably be appropriate soon. To move to a slower pace of increases. But I think what's really important to emphasize, we've done a lot, but we have additional work to do both on raising rates and sustaining restraint to bring inflation down. Of course, the fed vice chairman lael brainer, they are at the Bloomberg news bureau in Washington, D.C., what's interesting is I know we don't want to talk about pivot, but it does feel like there is increasingly momentum among fed speakers. Yep, we're going to keep raising rates because inflation is still a problem, but maybe they won't be as big as we thought they might be. Well, possibly. Right, exactly. And we heard from Waller over basically overnight out of Sydney. I guess some similar comments, so not quite as dovish as brainers, but this is a, this is a and this is a week where we're actually going to hear, I think from
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lil brainard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Technology at research at JMP securities, speaking with us earlier this morning as we parse through the fallout of FTX, the collapse of a company that went from billions of dollars of market value to zero overnight. Right now, just take a look at markets. You are seeing a bit of a retracement after the rally on Friday and Thursday. Although I gotta say, if you draw owning was what Chris Waller, the Federal Reserve governor was trying to do, not necessarily. That big of a decline. If you take a look at yields, they are climbing a little bit, but this ahead of a big discussion with Lil brainard and our very own Peggy Collins later this morning. You can also see the dollars sort of reasserting a little bit of strength after a huge bout of weakening heading into the end of the week. I mean, two days, the biggest two days of weekend going back to 2008. One in parse out as we wait for comments from President Biden over in Bali after the readout from his meeting with Xi Jinping, parsing through some of the wreckage of the past couple of decades. You could argue in turn, but particularly over the past couple of years in terms of all of the money flooding into more speculative investments, China basic Bloomberg Wall Street reporter joining us here. And I'm curious to know from your perspective, the FTX saga, how much that really represents something bigger that you're seeing happening throughout Wall Street when you speak to executives, where they're starting to see things wash out more completely. Certainly, you thought that a lot of the behavior when it came to venture capital is flowing, money into firms that they don't take board seats on, and they don't see the balance sheet of, you would think that that kind of behavior would be ending the last couple of years after we've seen some major hiccups in the venture capital world, but clearly that has not been the case. Crypto has not operated as a stand-alone industry away from the traditional capital markets. Remember, Ontario teachers, tamasic were among the types of investors that were invested in a firm in this firm, let alone a firm like this. And there's a question of how much this is really just an outcome of negative yields for so long or zero rates. And there's a question of how much this is actually fraud and it could take a Johnson, Bloomberg banking regulation reporter, is there in The Bahamas and I'd love to get your take tonight katanga on how much of this really was fraud was something much more nefarious than just simply money that went after an investment that turned out to be bad
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lil brainard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Feel so lost without my normal yields chart here, but we'll just sort of use this time to kick off against the markets reaction and really sort of the big economic data that we're expecting. Carol, for me, as I know it is for you, a big CPI report. It was interesting though, I was reading some information from omair Sharif, you know him over at inflation insights. And he cautioned a little bit that the core inflation month of Vermont that could decelerate, which is a good thing to just about three tenths of 1%. But the last time that happened, it then reaccelerated after that. So there's definitely going to be a lot of nuances within this data. Yeah, absolutely. It's September data, but nonetheless will be something we'll be thinking about because it's a key or what last inflation, right? We're getting down to thinking about the next fed meeting and what they're going to have to analyze. I want to go back to it. I can't believe I missed it. The NASDAQ golden dragon, which was down a lot in today's session. I know, I know. I think you talked about it earlier, right in terms of the gambling. But it does make me think about, you know, we travel coming off of the holiday there. The golden week holiday, COVID flare ups. I mean, when this economy continues to struggle, you do think about what's the global impact on everybody else. We're seeing that global impact right now with the chip sector because China is such an important customer for so many chip companies. Having the U.S. come out and say, you know, you're not allowed to sell certain types of chips, certain types of technology to this entire country has significantly concerned the analysts who cover the space. This shouldn't have been a complete surprise. I mean, I understand the knee jerk reaction, but we've been moving in this direction now for months and you probably make an argument that we've been moving in this direction for years. But it's another layer right on the semiconductor stocks that are already facing problems, whether it's lower PC demand and lower demand within. We've heard some of the warnings already from companies and then you layer this on top of it in terms of geopolitical concerns. Did you wonder how it plays out in terms of the catch a lot of investors off guard though, right? I mean, if they expected it, we wouldn't have seen shares fall this month. Or is it just another excuse to sell? Is there just a reason that people don't want to be lonely these markets at the moment when you've got geopolitics rising it's ugly head again. When you've got what is going to be a week of IMF World Bank dour talk about recession about a $4 trillion impact that you have in Los growth out to 2026 because of what is the global Central Bank movement to fight inflation. And it is global. I think that's such a key theme. I think sort of the big picture topics we've all been discussing is the global coordination or maybe the global conundrum that central banks find them in this time and are we all hiking and is this sort of a global coordinated cycle that we're not all, right? We saw Australia back off a little bit. You don't necessarily see China, you know, as we start to see maybe some central banks start to do it a little bit differently. How does that provide opportunities for investors? Well, I mean, I think the coordination is kind of starting to come to an end or at least certainly cracking. And you think about a lot of countries out there that are actually seeing the negative effects of that rate hiking, particularly coming out of the U.S. and they have to sort of move in a different direction if they want to protect their own currency and more importantly they're on economy. And Tim Carroll, I'd be interested to hear how many conversations you're having where investors and people with money to manage and talking about the Federal Reserve being forced to break something. We've talked all day about the liquidity issue that we've got in the US Treasury market at the moment that withdrawal we had Lil brainard of course that the Federal Reserve talking to that is this going to be the next key conundrum as we see the bond markets reopen tomorrow. It's a really good point. We just had the chief investment officer at ACM funds. He's got like 50 to 60% of his funds in cash because he finds that's the best opportunity right now. So that was very bearish for us to certainly hear, right? So it's just like people backing off at this point. That's a very interesting gold coins in cash. Is he? Don't let anyone know. You know, I went over to Jersey this weekend, Carol. I missed you. Well, why didn't you stop in? No, I don't know. Yeah, I don't like to put just pop in, you know? But you could have stopped by at a drink with us. Next time around, give me a warning. I hope you sort of lack the door. All right guys, that's a wrap. We'll be back same time same place across platform coverage. Maybe romaine or I won't be here. Who knows? Beyond the bevels yeah on Tuesday. You're listening to Bloomberg business week with Carol messer and Bloomberg quick takes Tim stenbeck on Bloomberg radio. It's gonna be a jam packed week, by the way, remains always welcome. I'm just gonna say what about me? Uh, I don't know how to do it. Okay. But it's gonna be jam packed while business, PPI, CPI, retail sales, fed minutes, bank earnings. It's funny for us to talk about. Yeah, and certainly enough for investors to kind of digest it all and see whether or not it changes their thinking when it comes to the fed. Let's get to the world of national news and Nancy Lyons in Washington, D.C., hey Nancy. Thanks, Tim. Russian president Vladimir Putin is warning of more attacks against civilian targets in Ukraine if Ukraine continues what he calls terrorist acts onto Russian territories that's likely reference to a recent explosion that damaged a major bridge from Russia to occupied Crimea. Ukraine, meanwhile, is pressuring the U.S. and Europe to provide more air defense missiles after Russia's missile barrage today. Bloomberg's Ann Marie horde with more. I spoke to the Ukrainian foreign ministry this morning what they are seeking for from the international community is more of these types of air defense missile systems, as well as they want the international community to label Russia a terrorist state. Bloomberg exam Marie hordern reports delivery and training on those air defense systems could take weeks. Well, today we learn former U.S. fed chair Ben Bernanke would be sharing the Nobel Prize in economics with two other U.S. based economists. It's for their research into bank failures and as Bloomberg's Nathan Hager reports, they are among what is considered to be a list of Nobel laureates that is far from diverse. In all 14 academics, scientists and artists are Nobel laureates this year, only two are women, French author Annie arnault won the literature prize, while Carolyn bertozzi is sharing the chemistry award this year with two men. It's a slight improvement from last year when only one woman received a Nobel since the prize was introduced more than a century ago, it has gone to women 61 times, including twice for Marie Curie that compares with 895 male Nobel laureates and 27 organizations. In Washington, I'm Nathan Hager, Bloomberg radio. Global news, 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg quicktake powered by more than 2700 journalists
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lil brainard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Canaccord Genuity to sell up to 15 million of stock and reported third quarter revenue that missed Wall Street estimates blue apron shares right now in the red, blue apron down 41.7%. I'm Charlie powder that is a Bloomberg business flash. Or something like that. I mean, there are other people that are like, it depends on if you add up all the Kardashians together. I mean, that other some of her sisters are worth more than a $1 billion. Yeah, I mean, they've figured out she's got her own plane. It's like a very expensive new plane. Let's get a business that doubled its valuation earlier this year. Yeah. She's getting into private equity. Did you see that? A few weeks ago? She's figuring it out. I would say. Former guy from Carlisle. Is it? Yeah. That's running it? Yeah, with Kim Kardashian. All right, the story that keeps on giving, all right, right now though, speaking of the story that keeps on giving, we have heard from so many fed speakers, we just talked about it, deep dive into what's going on with the dollar as a result of fed policy monetary policy here in the United States the implications of. So we wanted to talk a little bit more about a story that's on the Bloomberg and how we are beginning to maybe see cracks or early splintering when it comes to the fed message. So let's get to it. We got Craig Torres with us. Federal Reserve and U.S. economy reporter for Bloomberg news, Craig this afternoon joining us on the phone from Washington, D.C.. Craig, how far do we have to squint to read between the lines of what all of these fed speakers have been saying over the last week to actually find any sort of difference when it comes to the speed to peak rates. Not very far if you know what to look for. So I would say it's best represented by two people right now. On the one hand, Cleveland fed president Loretta master. Loretta thinks this is a very unusual and different environment where we've been above target for months and months, there's no sign of inflation relenting and sort of shifting down to the gradualism that we saw for many years in fed policy would be a huge mistake. In her own words, policies has to be asymmetric. In other words, being too tight is less costly than being too loose. On the other side, we heard from vice chair. I want to underscore that vice chair, lael brainard. And she said, well, let's not forget about lags. We've been running pretty hard here. Maybe it's time to start to be more data dependent and look around. That's kind of where the debate is right now. All right, so who's more important, mom or dad? No, I'm just kidding. But who's more important? I'm assuming Lil brainard, right? She's the number two at the fed. Well, you could say that, but remember in the, what's cool about this Carol is markets seem evenly split on this view, right? They have like two and a half hikes priced in. So they're not the weighing machine of the market is not giving more credence to one or the other, which I think is good. And second, remember the 2022 dots, we have 8 and 9. In terms of people wanting how many hikes they want for the rest of the year, not 8 or 9 hikes, but there's one group that wants a quarter point more than the first group. So, you know, it's a healthy debate. It's interesting. The debate could shift to based on the economic data we get this week, namely the change non farm payrolls that we see at the end of the week. Analysts are made by Bloomberg are still expecting a 265,000 person gain when it comes to those jobs. That's less than last month. Fewer than last month, 315 K, does any of this matter, Craig, if we get a blowout number in the jobs report? I think it matters. One thing that's just stunning is how. Resilient the U.S. economy is, right? It's held up pretty well. And the job market, I think, is being driven by the fact that we're going to be short on a secular basis. With regard to labor for a long time. And that story is about long COVID. It's about retirement and reduced immigration flows. Yeah. In terms of the longer growth impact, right? What comes, what happens on the other side of this? And how we recover after this fed rate cycle, right? That's kind of what you're getting to. I'm glad you mentioned that because we're just, I think everybody listening to us should pay attention to this. Tom barkin at the Richmond fed is out with a speech today. We're seeing it in other beneficials. We're starting to talk about the new secular. Secular order, not cyclical. What is the world we're going to have post COVID? And it may be a world where inflation forces are a bit higher because we don't have abundant energy. Globalization is disrupted and labor supply is more limited. This, okay. Okay. Carol just put her hands up I don't know if you saw on YouTube. She was just like, put her hands up like she's like, I've been saying this people. No, no, no, no. People much smarter than me, but the story that we did on Friday about the Cambridge professor, it was by the Bloomberg opinion piece. Bluebird opinion piece, and it basically that the earth does not have an endless amount of resources. So if we think growth is just going to kind of constantly come from Tapping earth. Buchanan was our guest on. Mark Buchanan, we're crazy. And we need to rethink and I agree that I love what you said, this new secular order. Life has got to be different with these big right Craig, macro issues, the shift off of fossil fuel. The shift because of the impact of climate change. I mean, look, we're talking about food shortages. I agree, like these higher costs that maybe are staying with us. It's different post pandemic. Yeah, now I don't want to be sorry, I'm like a little crazy. No, I don't want to be malthusian and say, okay, everybody stop having children because the planet's resources are limited. They is technology and innovation. And so. It takes years. That'll take like 15 years before we figure out how to get away from carbon, maybe longer. I don't know. But in the near term, I think the big issue for the fed is labor supply. It just doesn't look like it's coming back. All that, if you look at labor force and participation, low slow climb. Right. And I don't know what it is. You know, what do you get? Let's not say these are lazy people, okay? I don't like that. No, I'm not sure why they're not coming back, but something's going on. What do you guys think? Craig, I don't know. We scratch our heads and you're gonna have to come back and continue because we've got to unfortunately go off to news, but I agree. I don't know. We scratch our heads constantly when we try to figure out why aren't people coming back to the labor market? A big thank you to Craig Torres for joining us from Washington, D.C.. Let's stay in Washington D.C. at the world of national news with Nancy Lyons and ants. Thanks, Tim. President Biden is in Puerto Rico where he's committing millions to strengthen the island's resilience to flooding. We have to ensure that when the next hurricane strikes Puerto Rico is ready. Today, I'm announcing more than $60 million in funding to help coastal areas in Puerto Rico. Become better prepared for the store
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lil brainard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"A percent down 16 thousand little change down three and the NASDAQ down 1.3% down a 188 The ten year is down over one percent with a yield of 2.53% West Texas intermediate crude is down 6 tenths of a percent of one O two 61 a barrel comics gold is little changed at 1935 even per ounce The dollar yen won 23 31 The Euro a dollar 9 36 in the British pound a dollar 31 25 That is a Bloomberg business flash Bloomberg markets continues now with Matt Miller and Paul swinging All right great Jared Good stuff They're got a little bit of red on the screen Not going to oversell it here but the S&P off about four tenths of 1% Macro minute time Let's toss it over to pretty Gupta She's here in our Bloomberg interactive broker studio What are you looking at I love that we're sticking with macro minute I brought it I know I came up with it I thought it was kind of a cheesy name but now that you are going to roll off It's now cool All right so it's not It's not as cheesy as Emily in Paris Don't get me started Matt I love that show All these kids I'm walking around the office I took an informal poll this morning Kayleigh watches it What Danny watches it Of course we watch it It's like a super cheesy Netflix show Emily in Paris Well not all of us can go live in Berlin Matt so some of us have come back Anyways stocks they are down A lot of this is coming from comets that you got from lael brainer She did say that they are looking to strength the balance sheet as soon as may as soon as next month And that's really where you're seeing a lot of the pressure and stuff but also keep in mind you didn't see a ton of conviction at the open to begin with So one of the narratives right now on the trading desk is simply was there a reason to kind of sell where they waiting for the right headline Nevertheless you aren't really seeing much of a recovery either So that is why you have stocks on a down footing but given the kind of sensitivity to what's going to happen to the balance sheet isn't to be 500 is only down three times of a percent You're seeing a lot more pain in tech right now 1.3% decline in the NASDAQ I'm just going to quickly figure out what's moving there You can do that on the terminal with MOV function but I'm going to bet I'm going to take a quick while this is loading I'm going to take a quick guess out here I bet this is moving off Tesla because you are seeing Tesla shares down today And I'm right Yeah so Tesla is down One of the fourth biggest weights Amazon Apple Nvidia as well So once again this looks like a direct move off of those comments from Lil brainard All right good stuff Pretty Gupta with our macro minute there in the 11 o'clock hour Go to Gupta Bloomberg markets correspondent All right let's go to Tim Courtney Tim's the chief investment officer at accentual wealth advisers Tim there's so much out there whether it's economic issues inflation now we've got geopolitical risks What do you tell your clients here with all the noise that's out there in these markets Yeah there's a lot to choose from You can definitely point to just about any measure to make an argument But I think the things that we've been looking at recently have been some of the broader risk measures like the price of gold the dollar the fix these measures while they all kind of moved up over the last month and a half or so especially after the war started in Ukraine they've all been kind of cooling off The dollar has kind of reached a peak and has been trading in a range for the last week a couple of weeks Same thing with gold Peaked when over 2000 an ounce and now it's kind of back down on the 1900 to 1950 range Vix is back under 20 or at least it was earlier today So the risk measures look to have cooled and just looking broadly I think the most impressive thing is the year end earnings estimates for the full year 2022 continue to move higher A lot of times you start out the year with these earnings expectations that are pie in the sky and then you start to see them drop over time as kind of reality sets in And while I think a lot of people expect the first quarter to be kind of dull and not a lot of growth we've moved from an expectation of about 5 to 10% earnings growth for the year at the beginning of the year Now including everything you mentioned with the rates the war the supply chain still being still being messed up in several ways We're looking at now double digit earnings growth and the expectations can have continued to move higher in recent weeks So there's a lot going on you throw the yield curve inversion into that and all the questions about rates But it still looks like we have enough momentum coming into 2022 from the prior year to at least continue some positive growth and have stocks probably recover get back to positive and looks like they're going to end the year on positive territory Unless something really starts to deteriorate between Well there is no alternative Is that right I mean can you think of anywhere else to put fresh money right now No that's still a primary force out there Even with rates moving up as they have there's still well below the rate of inflation And there's still well below the profit yields that stocks are generating And so if you need to have some money in cash and bonds you probably don't want to overdo it You want to hold just enough there to make your plan work and to address risks that you might have But you're right Ultimately even with the rates moving up you still go back to I need growth I need to be able to hedge inflation And that leads you back to stocks Yeah it does All right Tim thanks so much for joining us here Tim Courtney chief investment officer at accentual wealth advisers right.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lil brainard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"What about that phrase end of that targeted measures from the PBOC the medium term lending facility that wasn't there As a heist what do we think the stimulus levers will be Do you think it's MLS first And the prospect of a rate cut is now on the table for 2022 at a headline level It is on the table man It's more support is coming I think with the PV of C as you mentioned it probably will be a rate code They will pull out their levers to ensure there's enough liquidity in the banking system perhaps even as we saw today allowing the U one to soften a little bit But most of the official sector action is expected on the fiscal side Last week spoke about for example the need for tax cuts and tax breaks and tax offsets for business people in particular So clearly they're going to do a lot on the fiscal side and of course as I mentioned in terms of the data today we saw state led investment starting to pull away from the private sector south suggests more money will be spent on for example infrastructure infrastructure projects So it will be a mix of borrowing and spending along with the tax cuts most support coming from the fiscal side But either way there will be government support because otherwise mine is most economists say they will struggle to hit the growth target of about 5 and a half percent Okay and thank you very much and to Karen on the very latest on the China data To the U.S. democratic senator Joe Manchin says he won't back President Biden's nominee for fed vice chair supervision Sarah bloom Raskin Now to move that will likely doom her confirmation in the Senate Let's get to our global economics policy editor Kathleen Hayes Kathleen this is in some ways a political flesh wound for the president Why the hesitancy on mansion Well let's first of all let's think who Sarah bloom Raskin is She is a she's already been a member of the Federal Reserve board of governors 2010 to 2013 when president Obama asked her to be the deputy secretary She's an academic She's been a financial regulator in the state of Maryland You think she'd be perfect for this job of vice chair supervision Looking over the banks And who is Joe Manchin He's a powerful senator from the state of West Virginia This is a coal state He's a senator who wants to make sure that the energy transition moves slowly He'd like to see more oil and gas production right now Sarah bloom Raskin after she left the fed in her academic career and on all kinds of panels there's been a supporter of the fed looking more at the impact of climate change on U.S. banks for Joe Manchin that's a red flag just as it has been for other Republicans who are afraid that the fed wants to meddle in how capital is lent to oil and gas companies Pull them back if they're not falling in line with the climate change mandate So interesting Patrick toomey who is the ranking member of the Senate banking committee They are the ones who have to get these fed nominees through so they can be voted by the entire Senate and go to the president He was on our Bloomberg television balance of power show today when the news broke a mansion's opposition he was asked what it means for Raskin This is what he said It probably does as a practical matter I'm not aware of any Republican support for Israeli and I have not spoken with every last Republican colleagues So I'm not speaking for anybody but I'm just not aware of it In fact after a mansion spoke out Susan Collins a moderate Republican from the state of Maine says she does not see Raskin moving ahead and remember most important here it's divided Senate 50 Democrats 50 Republicans If you have even one Joe mansion not on board and all Republicans against Raskin she is not going to get confirmed So that's where things stand now And who knows what magic Biden and his team might be able to play but for now it looks like the other four nominees are actually not saying nominees Well I want to say Jay Powell for fed chair and Lil brainard for vice chair and two others are maybe going to be approved by a Republicans The fed will still be able to do his job but maybe Raskin won't be part of that team Okay Kathy as you say there's some caveats in that aren't there Some interesting caveats Thank you very much Kevin Hayes in New York for the very latest on fed talk Let's check in on the first word headlines from around the world Back to New York Ronny queer is with the team Bonnie.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lil brainard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"It's 9 30 a.m. in Hong Kong I'm Kathleen Hayes And I'm Brian Curtis trading underway in many of the key markets around the region a couple of quick lines Kaiser has jumped 21% in the pre market We'll get you the latest quote on that in a few moments That's after commencing an exchange offer for outstanding notes and considering accelerating the disposal of assets to improve liquidity So all that makes Kaiser look a little better training the shares had been halted since November 5th and the other line bank of Korea raises its key interest rate Details coming up but for now some of the other top stories Gotta keep looking at this when Brian when they meant that last month the Federal Reserve officials acknowledged inflation was running hot and they were opened or moving policy support at a faster pace Since the meeting the brace data has gotten even worse Today the reading on personal consumption expanders expenditures I should say The PCE their main inflation gauge rose 5% over the past year even the core when you take out food and energy was still up 4% and change And that's the highest rate since 1990 the biggest challenge for fed leadership now JJ Powell has been nominated for a second term and governor Lil brainard has been nominated service vice chair and they may be entering a new era of overheating That's according to former US Treasury secretary Larry summers I think the question the fat is now managing is not do we have an overheating problem Can we bet with team transitory They know we do have an overheating problem and that they can't place their bet with team transitory They've got a new problem and it's a very complicated one and very much hope they'll be very thoughtful about it because there are no easy answers The new problem is how do you land this economy softly Well and of course this is why a lot of Federal Reserve officials are starting to talk about speeding up their taper process which would open the door to raising rates sooner in 2022 30 summers also says the fed was late to the party even seeing the inflation threat He says the fed foolishly asserted it wouldn't start raising monetary policy quote until the U.S. was at full employment Summer says officials are now going to have to figure out how to maneuver in their framework Well Jamie Dimon has apologized for joking that JPMorgan might outlast China's Communist Party Diamond's remark put the bank into damage control as soon as he made it We get more from Bloomberg's Charlie pellet Diamond is no stranger to brashness and he knew the bank would have to engineer a hasty retreat soon members of the firm's government relations team and China offices were corralled to discuss the remarks and decide whether to acknowledge them or let them lie Some 18 hours later when it became clear that the comments attracted global attention diamond issued a statement of regret In New York Charlie pellet Bloomberg daybreak Asia Wearing Wuhan Asia heart hospital is planning a Hong Kong IPO the healthcare services company could raise a few $100 million Hong Kong has been a busy venue for healthcare IPOs The city has seen $7.4 billion raised in the sector so far this year Sources told us the debut of Wuhan Asia hard hospital could take place as soon as next year The company's working with JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley on proposed offering All right the time is 33 minutes past the hour Let's take a look at markets here in the Asia Pacific Let's get to Doug Kristen Doug investors still a little bit puzzled and trying to figure this one out Where do you want to begin You want to begin with kaisa Let me talk about Kaiser first stock right now in Hong Kong trading is up about to 11% But the pre market indicated we could see a 20% move So we're not quite at that level yet This stock by the way his resume to trading for the first time in about three weeks So the story is that Kaiser is offering bondholders an option They can exchange existing bonds with new bonds that have an extended maturity and at the same time Kaiser is considering an acceleration of the disposal of a certain assets as a way of improving liquidity Even with a gain in Kaiser shares right now in Hong Kong the hang tsang is a bit on the back foot down about three tenths of 1% right now I'm going to run the function very quickly here on the Bloomberg terminal Go inside the Hong Kong market and take a closer look at its exactly what is breaking down here Information technology leading the decline along with real estate and healthcare Interesting that real estate is weak as a group in spite of the rally that we're seeing in Kaiser shares We had that rate decision from the bank of Korea as expected a quarter point increase in the key policy rate all the way up to 1% at the same time to be okay raised at CPI forecast for the new year to 2% from the current one and a half percent In spite of that we're seeing weakness in the Korean won down about three tenths of 1% against the greenback and in the equity market the Cosby is now down nearly 6 tenths of 1% leading the decline information technology But if you take a closer look the software group is actually higher where we're seeing weakness is in tech hardware and semiconductors in the South Korean session Right now in Sydney ASX 200 down a tenth of 1% and on the Chinese mainland Shanghai composite up about a tenth of 1% We're on the lunch break now in Tokyo with an EK higher by about 7 tenths of 1% Kathleen Well let's take a look at global news now.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lil brainard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Stocks higher Brian Yeah that was a really big report in terms of leading to bullishness on Wall Street to gains were not massive but we had the S&P 500 up four tenths of a percent the NASDAQ gaining three quarters of a percent in the Dow up about two tenths of a percent The value of overall retail sales increasing 1.7% last month that was better than the estimate of 1.4% If we look across the markets in Asia we've got about half the cash markets up and running now and a number of futures we can refer to In the cash markets the nikkei is up about two tenths of 1% in the early going with a gain of about 59 points The SX 200 is slightly lower down about a tenth of 1% and in so the cost be right at the 3000 level will be getting some interesting numbers later today from Asia Right now the cost be up about one tenth of 1% In terms of futures hanging index futures slightly lower down two tenths of a percent and foot to China a 50s are down about a quarter of 1% We're seeing active trading in S&P E minis at the moment and we're just moving up a little bit a couple of points there A gain of less than a tenth of 1% A couple of big notes here Chinese stocks did very well in the U.S. session with ADRs rising to their highest in three weeks The NASDAQ golden dragon index jumped 1.8% The yen is at its weakest level against the dollar in more than four years The dollar yen pair is at one 1492 now The Bloomberg spot index gained in the U.S. session flat here in Asia the Euro trading at 1.13 And I wanted to mention in corporate news China evergreens chairman wiki young is said to have injected more than a billion U.S. dollars of his own cash into the company to improve the developers liquidity China business news says that he has been doing that since July And that is a check of markets Kathleen Well let's look at some of the big news around the world starting with President Biden telling reporters to expect the long awaited announcement of a nominee for fed chair in the next four days Sources told us they'll choose between reappointing current chair Jay Powell or replacing him with fed governor Lille brainard The White House is seeking input from senators to insure either Powell or brainard would get the votes needed for the confirmation Senate banking committee chairman chair at Brown said he has no doubt the Senate would confirm either Kennedy I haven't heard from too many Republicans on that yet Banking committee approval will be the first step in the confirmation process Brown said his committee could hold a confirmation hearing as soon as early December on this very important nomination You follow the fed so closely what is your gut tell you My gut tells me that I think that with senator Joe Manchin wanting to talk to Powell I think what they're looking for somebody who could get an easy passage Jay Powell is the market against him for Democrats is that he's a Republican appointed by president Trump Lil brainard is a card carrying Democrat and would get a lot of support from progressives But I don't know I think maybe if you want ease of passage you still go for power It was very interesting Rick Davis on our show on the show just before not our show but the show right before us He basically said you know they've taken this long It must be lael brainard Otherwise how tough is it just to reappoint So we shall see four days yes for quite interesting Also we had the St. Louis fed president James bullard saying that the Central Bank should speed up its reduction of monetary stimulus He said that in response to the surge in inflation The inflation rate is quite high The core PC inflation rate that committee's favorite measures about 3.6% That's the highest it's been in 30 years So I think it behooves the committee to tack in a more hawkish direction but we could move faster We kept optionality on this that we could speed up the taper if it's appropriate He made a very interesting point He said that the committee would also have the option to raise rates while the taper is going on if the committee wants to move faster Other fed officials have been in no hurry to speed up the taper Thomas barkin for instance from the Richmond fed said the Central Bank can be patient in assessing the taper We'll see how long they are They can be patient about patients Well let's take a look at some more big global news now The Biden administration plans to buy enough doses of Pfizer's new antiviral pill to treat 10 million patients Doug Kristen are back with global news from the Bloomberg newsroom Yeah Kathleen is a Pfizer pill did show extraordinary results in a clinical trial It was effective at reducing hospitalization and death by 89% among high risk COVID patients We are told the company is planning to submit data for the bill to the FDA by Thanksgiving Separately The New York Times is reporting the FDA is planning to authorize Pfizer's booster shot as soon as as soon as Thursday this would expand a number of Americans eligible for additional shots by about tens of millions where the virus is concerned New Zealand has begun issuing vaccine passes they will soon be required in a range of public settings meantime China has cut the number of flights from some provincial capitals to Beijing to stem the spread of the virus there in Europe curbs were set from Germany to Ireland as authorities try to control the surge in infections and here in New York State officials are warning of restrictions possible if cases continue to climb President Biden and chief did agree on the need for talks aimed at reducing tensions over China's expansion of its nuclear arsenal along with a recent test of a hypersonic weapon U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan said the presidents did discuss the need for nuclear strategic stability talks at their virtual summit Sullivan went on to say the two leaders spent a good amount of time on the question of Taiwan Now Biden said the U.S. does remain committed to its one China policy although interestingly today Biden told reporters the 1979 Taiwan relations act makes it clear Taiwan is independent and makes its own decisions We'll take another look at global news in about 15 minutes from now Brian Doug thank you very much The time now is.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lil brainard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Days that's the line today from President Biden has been hearing on Bloomberg radio making more news the president making more news after his speech on infrastructure than he did during it And that's frequently the case This is why the reporters run after everyone as they come off the state maybe they'll say something real He told them to expect an announcement of a nominee for fed share in the next four days You can read about it on the terminal and that's where we start with the panel once again I'm Joe Matthew and Emily Wilkins is with us this hour The panel is well Rick Davis and Kristen Hawn with us for the hour Emily this is interesting It adds to the Groundhog Day aspect of this administration And just kind of the spirit in Washington right now where we come in every day and grind through this debate about reconciliation will there be a bill Is it going to be paid for We've got a deal Here's a framework and now this fed steady drum beat is really getting to the point of just deafening if you listen to or watch financial news you see how much angst there is in the market over this Why not just announce it Well remember when they do announce it that's not the end of the road This person whether it's Jay Powell or a Lil brainard needs to be confirmed by the U.S. Senate And you've already heard some concerns from senator senator Elizabeth Warren saying she would not support Jay Powell's nomination But you've also seen a number of senators say that they would prefer to have vote for senator Powell including a number of Republicans who have said hey you know we are happy to go ahead and back Jay Powell again We got another story up on the terminal that just really breaks this down You looking at members like rob Portman of Ohio tends to be a moderate voted for Lil Bernard for her current post but he said that now he's urging Biden to choose Powell And so I think you know if he does decide to go with governor brainard this could wind up being a battle in the Senate But the news today from sherrod Brown other than the imminent headline which did make me chuckle this morning because that word is just not terribly meaningful in this particular capital city The fact that he thought both could be confirmed left some people scratching their heads Do you believe it I mean look sherrod Brown knows more about his Senate colleagues than I do But it definitely seems like a Powell would be a much easier candidate to get through the Senate than for governor brainard Let's bring Rick and Kristen in on this What do you make of this whole conversation Rick the confirmation process Obviously it would be an easier road for President Biden to maintain the status quo but sherrod Brown saying both could be confirmed Do you believe that Sure Yeah I mean you rarely have a big fight on fed chair She's already been through a confirmation makes it even easier for her The fact that they're not bringing someone in from the outside really gives the Republicans in a Democrats on the banking committee and also on the Senate itself a lot of comfort that both people have been vetted So I really think this is a bit of a canard Biden's going to make his choice It's not going to matter really in the Senate confirmation process who he picks The fact that he's taken so long to do this indicates to me that it's probably not pal I mean how hard is it to reappoint pal How much do you really have to think about that Do you think there's a change coming It smells like it I mean he's been really good about putting a lot more diversity into the administration And he needs a new talking point around inflation And I mean if he can find a new talking point around inflation by picking then he ought to do that because he is stuck in the mud when it comes to that issue You know Ricky you have mentioned how long this is taking And it strikes me that they're not just looking to fill fed chair necessarily Biden also.