7 Burst results for "Lena Schipper"

"lena schipper" Discussed on The Economist: The Intelligence

The Economist: The Intelligence

05:56 min | Last month

"lena schipper" Discussed on The Economist: The Intelligence

"The link is in the show notes home. The main opposition party in south korea picked a new leader earlier this month lee. Joon sook is an entrepreneur and a harvard graduate. who's never held elected office and thirty six years old. He's the youngest person ever to lead a party in the country. Jenin among mr lease biggest fans were young men who feel victimized. By south korea's feminist movement many south korean men in their twenties feels golden by the country's current leadership who feel that she cyclist unpleasing veges. Lena schipper is economists. Seoul bureau chief. An agent suck the new head of the Has given voice to this answer. And in what way has. Mr lee becomes something of an anti-feminist his things basically says feminism is discrimination against men on what he's actually after equality say promised to abolish coaches for women in his policy wants to restore fan as to the political process by using things like tests on computer skills in that kind of stuff to choose. His party's candidates and he's picked up on cultural vessels last month. For instance those opposed to the issued by chain of convenience souls that advertise camping game including finger reaching out to grasp sausage and men complained because they said the famous reaching out to the societal Meiji that makes pinching gesture which they say is commonly used when mocking. The size of a man's penis on missilea demanded an explanation for this apparent hidden insult by feminists which went down well with his smale constituency. So he's something of a leader of a new culture war that i mean. How did he end up as leader of the opposition his election marks effort to rejuvenate the conservative fosse head of the presidential election next year. This is a posse that feels itself pretty badly in need of rejuvenation because loss helped power is president chase out of office in a corruption scandal. The other thing is young men are important constituency In the mayoral elections in solan poussin the to base seasons korean spring. More than three quarters of young men voted for the consensus. Having said that the some doubts about whether egypt soccer's sort of lasting figueras alita vacancies actually too young to become president himself. Constitution sets the minimum age of forty six but still Mris use on his novel. She might prove pretty powerful acids. It is reasonably likely the Popularity may aid who method the Decide to nominate in the run for presidency at least among some of the men and as for the young men who apparently important important conservative constituency. What exactly is that. They feel so aggrieved about so there are grief. I have pretty wide range of things. One thing they complain about marriage culture in south korea. Men are expects us to have an apartment have job. Look off the woman because it's still like a pretty traditional arrangement marriages were matinee expects to be breadwinners and women experts to do the domestic wax. They feel there's a lot of russia because good jobs ought to get houses are expensive when it comes to jobs. They have this feeling that because the current government says it's feminist government wants to make life easier for women Women being fad for promotions and then another areas the application of mole. There are some young men who argued in cases of discrimination harassment women getting a fair hearing than baton cases and so do these young men have point in any way yes a note there was a point in that compulsory military service is pretty long instill leon. Huff applies aged men. And so they say that having to spend that time in the ministry sets in back in that careers having said that south korea still schools extremely poorly on measures of equality between the sexes. If you look at something like the glass ceiling index switched economist intelligence unit compiles via that rates at the west rich country in which to be a working woman and the young women than make of those imbalanced said. I think you have very little overlap in perception between men and women and women say discrimination against men is incredibly privileged Elisa and the data at least amendment a kind of still on the side of the women because things that you can measure and the things you can see there is a lot of job. Discrimination are of glass ceilings. You come up against kind of once. You beyond that initial period of schooling university. Which i think young amana right to say his At this point so on the one hand you've got young men who resent the marriage culture in which they're expected to be breadwinners on the other hand to have women who feel in their careers. I mean it sounds like both genders here are caught in the middle of generational change. Yeah i think that's probably fed sign as Session change going on. That's not quite complete on that spacing a lot of uncertainty for a lot of people in the Which makes them. I think it's going to be a big problem actually in the next few years because i don't really see any reconciliation in that generation. I mean if you look at the older generations that also differences of same political outlets between men women but not anywhere near as extreme as among people in that vijay's as people grow up and stop calling the shots so taking possessions of found the country it could be incredibly conflictual and.

Lena schipper Joon sook south korea lee last month forty six both genders next year thirty six years old More than three quarters solan poussin earlier this month south korean twenties Elisa lease years One thing korean Mris
"lena schipper" Discussed on The Economist: The Intelligence

The Economist: The Intelligence

07:11 min | Last month

"lena schipper" Discussed on The Economist: The Intelligence

"This week. America's special envoy for north korea sung kim is in seoul the newly appointed. Mr kim said this week that he's willing to meet with north korean officials anywhere anytime. His meetings with south korean officials form part of what the biden administration has said. Are careful and calibrated efforts to deal with the north. Most importantly two countries agreed on the shared commitment to pursue who paid inquisition of the critic slot through diplomacy diallo officials from. Pyongyang should have good reason to come to the table at a meeting of senior party members last week. Supreme leader kim jong un spoke of food shortages saying that the people's food situation is now getting tense. It's a rare glimpse into just how troubled the country is very difficult to tell. Exactly how bad things on north korea because of the lack of information coming out of the country from what we know. It looks very bad lena. Schipper is the economist. Seoul bureau chief of the united nations came out with an estimate that households beginning to experience a hauch lean period between august and october gap of about two months food use. And also we've had lots of anecdotal evidence coming out of north korean tubs of market prices. And that kind of thing. Even pyongyang imported items like bananas cost something. like forty. Five dollars a key ally this been massive fluctuation and rice and grain prices to overall. It's looking at and what's behind it. What's the cause of the shortages. Said the fast course which kim's on blames which happens to be true is that losses is harvest was really bad so there was very little rain early on in the year and then there were three pretty terrible typhoons in august and september last year which caused devastating floods and destroyed a good part of the harvest. The north korean state media said that one on its own had destroyed. Four two thousand hectares of cropland. And something like seventeen thousand homes and according to external sources of weather stations outside the country. The summer autumn of twenty twenty was one of the wettest peres records since the one thousand nine hundred s. So that means the was unusual. And it's now something which just one crops are running low anyway so that explains a lot of wide situations that a lot but not all said that expands in loss of the situation. But it doesn't explain everything because the other factory looking out regarding north korea and food secure. She is the closed border to keep covid. Nineteen out so ever. Since last year. Kim jong un has basically shot at the bottom as completely trade with china. Which is the maine's of external source of things like food fash allies on fuel coming into the country disappeared almost completely for parts of last year. It's still incredibly low. And we also have continued imposition of sanctions from the united nations and the united states to persuade kim jong onto his nuclear program. So all of these things also contributing to the situation will at least some part of that then would have been foreseeable if a lot of the food comes into the country as imports for example yes The food situation in north korea has great but the particularly bad situation now was foreseeable and has some degree beating knowledge by the regime itself in january the the previous five-year plan had failed in almost every sector an april. He called on people to wage an all the more difficult arduous marks which just attend those used for the famine in the nineteen nineties that killed hundreds of thousands possibly more than a million people but now the language of food crisis that he's last week is particularly dive that stop and why make that admission though as a as a notoriously closed society that that doesn't let this kind of information come out why why announce it. I can't tell you exactly why it's doing it. But there are a couple of reasons that are imaginable. Jonah's communicating extensively telling the outside world with in a really bad place and telling particularly america. You can help us get out of this very bad place. But lifting some sanctions and making an offer that we would like and the will cause us to come back to the negotiating table. The other thing is communicating intently. Everything state media says directed at the outside world some of addressing north korean people saying look i realized that you and a bad way and that you having a much harder time usual. And even the euro says harian state still some degree of acknowledgment. You have to make to people that this offering that you're aware of this suffering because otherwise you know what they're gonna do in response. So what is the stakes. Doing to try to counteract. The immediate problem said the regime last week said they're going to throw resources at farming they're gonna focus on food. Production for the rest of the gear tried to have better disaster management particularly of things like typhoons improve fetilizer production. But in the short term doesn't actually look like the blind to do very much. Mr kim said the covid nineteen needs to be beaten on. That's attractive war. Which suggests that he's not planning to the border restrictions anytime soon and that means the situation when no outside aid that usually makes up for these food shortfalls come in is likely to continue. Ngos have had to leave the country. He's not shown. Any signs of accepting other offers of aid south korea's offered food age and spend ten down does a massive sense of paranoia of the pandemic coming into the country because north korea's claim stuff no cases and closing the border seems to be the utmost priority of the mend but what about the announcement that might be aimed at the likes of america and lifting of sanctions. How likely is that. I didn't think that's going to be a foster persons of lifting sanctions the us special envoy from north korea sung. Kim was in seoul this week and said they were willing to meet north korea without preconditions anytime but they didn't say that they were going to lift sanctions until the a and attitude on the north korean side so that process seems pretty stay on needs to me and kim jones signals are similarly mix. You said last week. The country's prepared for both dialogue and confrontation which means precisely nothing could go either way and his system this week in response to some in visit double down on the more negative side of things saying basically dream on guys. We're all gonna come on. Come forward in any way unless you make as an often and despite the visit seoul this week of son kim. This new clear plan. That's visible to me. The momentum the biden administration for what they actually want to achieve with regard to north korea. That longtime strategy is so. I don't really see that being any particularly impressive moves on either side of this stalemated situation for the next few months so in the short term anyway. It looks like this. This dire situation.

Kim kim Five dollars This week kim jong last week forty january last year Kim jong un seventeen thousand homes kim jones this week Schipper hundreds of thousands seoul sung kim two countries Nineteen about two months
"lena schipper" Discussed on The Economist: The Intelligence

The Economist: The Intelligence

05:43 min | 5 months ago

"lena schipper" Discussed on The Economist: The Intelligence

"We're so reliant on gas and getting away from that reliance is going to be very very difficult and i don't think anyone would say that the path to twenty-fifty net zero emissions is clear. There is still significant unknowns. There are many places where it's not obvious how it's going to be done. How thanks very much for your time. Thanks for having me jason. Another tactic in reading net zero emissions is to harness market forces markets. Put a cap and a price on pollution by issuing tradable emission permits in this week's episode of money talk or show on finance and economics by colleagues discuss europe's enormous mature carbon market where emissions prices are hitting record highs lookout for money talks wherever fine. Podcasts are sold and traded. It's been almost a year since we started producing this show remotely and working from home still. Has its frustrations and it's and it's surprises. Hello going every week. This isn't so bad. It could be far worse all fix mccoy. Ucla who lives in a block of flats in seoul. He says that at least once a week his neighbors vigorous sexual congress wakes him up and it seems like he's not the only one with noise complaints neighbors Driving people mad and blocks of flats and south korea. Lena schipper is our seoul bureau. Chief people been complaining about noises from children running around on the floors above late night. Music necessarily made worse by the pandemic. Because or there. There's no lock down in south korea working from home that's been recommended so for year. A lot of people have dispensed i am. Why is this such a widespread problem. I think it's just the nature of these highrise apartment blocks the way that built they just carry sound the earliest ones went up in the seventy s. Most of the ones where people live in now and up in the eighties and nineties and they all pretty cheaply constructed and this kind of two or three different models that companies follow and they don't use particularly good insulation than any of them so noise between floors. It's such a well established program. That does a national center dedicated to dealing with just that the center registers complaints office mediation through a range of committees and the point is to prevent lawsuits and perhaps even patch up neighborly relations after people have complained about each other and so how does the centered deal with these issues. So it's not easy to resolve these things partly because people seem to be driven mad by the mere existence of their neighbors. Nearly two-thirds complaints get the center a related to things like children running or adult simply walking in the flap says so people existing on top of your head and mediates nothing ends with people just being told they have to put up with the noise because it's inevitable of the people make some kind of a lawyer representing people who wanted to take they complex to court told us an even if you win. Compensation is very small so usually the answer is just deal with it. Just work it out for yourself. Yeah that's usually what happens. I mean you can try and talk to your neighbors. You can try to go through the building management but actually it seems to be that a lot of people take matters into their own hands and rather more extreme as are a lot of websites recommend effective ways to take revenge on noisy neighbors for instance by blasting bass heavy music towards the ceiling by banning mallets against the will japan creates noises that can take the skull according to one appetizer and there are a lot of cases where it gets worse than that even so last year one man was sent to prison for assaulting his neighbor with one of those rubber mallets under smashing it against the wall spoke to one person who suspects her neighbors practice basketball and golf and their apartment and she says that gnashing the whosever against the ceiling has worked on occasion. And mr you who heard from the beginning says he's tried to play british chops and the national anthem through ceiling full volume. That's factor adjusting the neighbors. But he says they approach has its drawbacks. He told me that basically unbearable listen to any length of time but you say the problem has clearly been exacerbated by the pandemic. Do you get the feeling that things will be a little less noisy. When that passes the number of complaints will go down. As the pandemic passes that there is a wide issue of ten floors and apartment blocks the government mandated that they be thicker and new built apartment blocks in two thousand thirteen and they're currently thinking about making them thicker still but that's not going to help residents who live in. That's the problem. it's very likely to persist. And that means that the probably a market for the carpets fluffy slippers nice cancelling headphones and south korea. For quite some time to come..

Lena schipper south korea two last year seventy s. jason Ucla this week one man eighties one appetizer two thousand thirteen one person one congress three different models ten floors nineties Nearly two-thirds once a week
"lena schipper" Discussed on The Economist: The Intelligence

The Economist: The Intelligence

09:46 min | 2 years ago

"lena schipper" Discussed on The Economist: The Intelligence

"This economist podcast is brought to you by linked in jobs. Hello and welcome to the intelligence on economist radio. I'm your host. Jason Palmer every weekday. We provide a fresh perspective on the events shaping your world. Today, Chicago, we'll elect a new mayor the colorful and outspoken incumbent Rahm Emanuel is a former White House chief of staff we chat with him and ask why he's stepping down. What he has and hasn't done for Chicago. And how he's ten year might hold lessons for other cities. Last week. It started to look a lot more advantageous to have kids in Hungary. The country's prime minister has made a pile of promises to shrinking demographic of young families, but non woodwork so well as taking a softer line on immigration. First up though. Starting tomorrow in Vietnam. North Korea's leader Kim Jong Hoon will meet with President Donald Trump for a second time. We're going to have a very interesting two and a half days in Vietnam. And we have a chance for the total de nuclearization of an area of the world that was very dangerous that may sound like a grand and concrete ambition, but there's some confusion as to what total denuclearisation really means. It seems that since the pair I met in Singapore last June. Mr. Trump has lowered his sights of it yesterday. He said he was not in a rush to denuclearization as long as North Korea. Does no more weapons testing. How much diplomatic progress has been made since that Singapore summit, and what the two sides expect to achieve this time around Kim to Donald Trump pledge to establish a PanAm peace regime on the Korean peninsula and to leave the fold you. Nuclearization of the peninsula, but they didn't really agree on what that meant for the past few months progress on any of those goals has been hampered by the fact that they haven't been able to agree on definitions of any of those things are sold bureau chief, Lena Schipper is in Vietnam ahead of the summit. Lena. What's the mood like in Vietnam? Well from what I could see on the road and from the airport. Everybody is extremely excited. This Vietnamese government we should say extremely excited. There are lots of American North Korean flags lining the road. They're all sorts of LED displays saying Hello. Welcome to noise such peace. So that can effort even though they didn't have very much time to Pat, what about your sort of home bureau, what what has the feeling in in Seoul. And so the mood is much less excited than it was before the Singapore. Some of the before Singaple you had the the to inter-korean summits that people very moved buying South Korea because you had. Kim's shaking hands across the dividing line in the demilitarized in the board of between North Korean South Korean people was very brilliant and hopeful and this time the mood was in is a lot more subdued. I think people have much lower expectations than they did in the run-up syncopal. Not very much as happened for few months there. The it's more wait-and-see. I think than it was. Some big promises were made at the last meeting, but since then not much as happened to fulfil them. What should the world expect this time around? I didn't think we should expect too much. Edward car is the economists deputy editor, but we have to see more than we saw from Singapore, which is really just a sort of handshake and a smile, so their various things that people are talking about one is an opening of liaison offices at the moment. There's no formal diplomatic contacts. There could be an opening of liaison offices in each other's capitals. It may be that North Korea is willing to shutdown temporarily or permanently its Yongbyon react to where a lot of immunity materials being created. It may be that they'll allow the inspection of its test site, which it said it's closing descend like significant Justice, but they're really less significant than they they see one high profile North Korean Coldham, like painting an old car for resale. These are really. Decrepit places 'institutions at all particularly useful to the north again on the other side in old even to get that far the United States may have to relax some sanctions. Now, this is a long way from eliminating the North Korean nuclear threat. But it is a movement of of some sort that is the the pointed question, do you believe that Mr Kim would ever completely denuclearize? I think it's unlikely, but he doesn't really have to listen to me, both America's intelligence services and more recently senior military commander in Asia. Have both said they think it's unlikely that North Korea will give up all its nuclear weapons. Their assessments is much more likely that careers willing to give up some weapons in exchange for a relaxation of sanctions, a recognition by the United States of the Kim regime, but Trump doesn't agree with that. And he called his security services naive and told them that they were totally wrong. And. There's a great deal to be had with North Korea, which he thinks has the opportunity become one of the fastest growing economies in the world. If only they tried so the discussion of denuclearization that came about during the Singapore meeting. What exactly does that mean? Well, I think that's a big problem because each side means different things by complete DeLuca is Asian the Americans made getting rid of all North Korea's nuclear weapons in a verifiable fashion. The North Koreans. We think mean getting rid of American troops as well as their own weapon. So it means getting rid of the entire threat to both career, which they would argue is the result of having US troops in South Korea protected by the US nuclear umbrella. So both sides in Singapore were able to agree on this formula because it meant fundamentally different things to each of them that at some points going to have to be resolved. This seems like a repeat of a situation the world seen before diplomatic attempts that result in North Korea getting concessions, but the west not getting the security that. Angling for that's possible. Certainly it's what many people think, but there is a difference. This time Kim Jong relatively young man around thirty would hope to have many decades in power. He has to think about what's what's the future? How can he survive for decades in power in lessee has economic growth? That's Mr. Kim's guarantee of maintaining power over decades. Yes. I mean, the economy is small and not doing terribly. Well, it'd be a long time before the economy can finance huge weapons expenditure. Even now devotes a massive show GDP to buy weapons, but it's clear that it's the technological level is conventional weapons is pretty rudimentary. So it depends to defend itself against the highly sophisticated weapons of his enemies all who thinks is enemies in in the region and the United States the way it defends itself against those visted weapons is with the nuclear deterrent will quite I mean, how do we escape the feeling that North Korea is? Getting more and more of it what it wants. But never any moves on on denuclearization. I think that's a hard question to answer. One thing that has been gained is that the haven't been more tests. So there's some feeling that for as long as north doesn't test than it's becoming slightly less dangerous is not completing the miniaturization of the warhead one hopes. And so there's a there's a feeling that perhaps. It's less dangerous if it's not testing, that's that's kind of some gain that the rest of the world is getting. But you're right. They have to think quite hard about how much they're willing to relax sanctions without seeing really concrete steps towards denuclearization. And the thing that's really key. I think some point the north is going to have to come up with a complete inventory of everything that it has. And we, you know, you'll know that it serious when the north has come out with his infantry Tillett does with just dancing around. Really? I mean, there is some sense that perhaps this is perhaps a bit of theater on. On both parts right on on Mr Kim, looking to to be seen to be getting concessions from the west Mr. Trump being seen to be a, you know tackling extremely thorny longstanding problem of diplomacy as it just the what is he's to make fun of some bits of it. The Trumpian tweets and of Trump's Egan's to be nominated for the Nobel peace prize. But I think there's something very serious at St. to the first of these is the north Trump was warned was a growing threat when he was coming into office. I and we've seen the cessation of tests. And that's something that's really worth having the second is that it's unacceptable to have North Korea able to hit the United States with a nuclear armed ICBM. No, president can stand for that. And so this something deadly serious here as well as the kind of grandstanding and the style in which Trump does. That's very Trumpian. But he is grappling with a fundamentally important issue for the security, nited states and for the security of the entire part of Asia. Thanks for your time. Thank you.

North Korea President Donald Trump Mr. Kim United States denuclearization Singapore Vietnam South Korea Trump Kim Jong Chicago Asia Jason Palmer Hungary Rahm Emanuel Kim Jong Hoon White House
Two for the show: Trump meets Kim

The Economist: The Intelligence

08:35 min | 2 years ago

Two for the show: Trump meets Kim

"Starting tomorrow in Vietnam. North Korea's leader Kim Jong Hoon will meet with President Donald Trump for a second time. We're going to have a very interesting two and a half days in Vietnam. And we have a chance for the total de nuclearization of an area of the world that was very dangerous that may sound like a grand and concrete ambition, but there's some confusion as to what total denuclearisation really means. It seems that since the pair I met in Singapore last June. Mr. Trump has lowered his sights of it yesterday. He said he was not in a rush to denuclearization as long as North Korea. Does no more weapons testing. How much diplomatic progress has been made since that Singapore summit, and what the two sides expect to achieve this time around Kim to Donald Trump pledge to establish a PanAm peace regime on the Korean peninsula and to leave the fold you. Nuclearization of the peninsula, but they didn't really agree on what that meant for the past few months progress on any of those goals has been hampered by the fact that they haven't been able to agree on definitions of any of those things are sold bureau chief, Lena Schipper is in Vietnam ahead of the summit. Lena. What's the mood like in Vietnam? Well from what I could see on the road and from the airport. Everybody is extremely excited. This Vietnamese government we should say extremely excited. There are lots of American North Korean flags lining the road. They're all sorts of LED displays saying Hello. Welcome to noise such peace. So that can effort even though they didn't have very much time to Pat, what about your sort of home bureau, what what has the feeling in in Seoul. And so the mood is much less excited than it was before the Singapore. Some of the before Singaple you had the the to inter-korean summits that people very moved buying South Korea because you had. Kim's shaking hands across the dividing line in the demilitarized in the board of between North Korean South Korean people was very brilliant and hopeful and this time the mood was in is a lot more subdued. I think people have much lower expectations than they did in the run-up syncopal. Not very much as happened for few months there. The it's more wait-and-see. I think than it was. Some big promises were made at the last meeting, but since then not much as happened to fulfil them. What should the world expect this time around? I didn't think we should expect too much. Edward car is the economists deputy editor, but we have to see more than we saw from Singapore, which is really just a sort of handshake and a smile, so their various things that people are talking about one is an opening of liaison offices at the moment. There's no formal diplomatic contacts. There could be an opening of liaison offices in each other's capitals. It may be that North Korea is willing to shutdown temporarily or permanently its Yongbyon react to where a lot of immunity materials being created. It may be that they'll allow the inspection of its test site, which it said it's closing descend like significant Justice, but they're really less significant than they they see one high profile North Korean Coldham, like painting an old car for resale. These are really. Decrepit places 'institutions at all particularly useful to the north again on the other side in old even to get that far the United States may have to relax some sanctions. Now, this is a long way from eliminating the North Korean nuclear threat. But it is a movement of of some sort that is the the pointed question, do you believe that Mr Kim would ever completely denuclearize? I think it's unlikely, but he doesn't really have to listen to me, both America's intelligence services and more recently senior military commander in Asia. Have both said they think it's unlikely that North Korea will give up all its nuclear weapons. Their assessments is much more likely that careers willing to give up some weapons in exchange for a relaxation of sanctions, a recognition by the United States of the Kim regime, but Trump doesn't agree with that. And he called his security services naive and told them that they were totally wrong. And. There's a great deal to be had with North Korea, which he thinks has the opportunity become one of the fastest growing economies in the world. If only they tried so the discussion of denuclearization that came about during the Singapore meeting. What exactly does that mean? Well, I think that's a big problem because each side means different things by complete DeLuca is Asian the Americans made getting rid of all North Korea's nuclear weapons in a verifiable fashion. The North Koreans. We think mean getting rid of American troops as well as their own weapon. So it means getting rid of the entire threat to both career, which they would argue is the result of having US troops in South Korea protected by the US nuclear umbrella. So both sides in Singapore were able to agree on this formula because it meant fundamentally different things to each of them that at some points going to have to be resolved. This seems like a repeat of a situation the world seen before diplomatic attempts that result in North Korea getting concessions, but the west not getting the security that. Angling for that's possible. Certainly it's what many people think, but there is a difference. This time Kim Jong relatively young man around thirty would hope to have many decades in power. He has to think about what's what's the future? How can he survive for decades in power in lessee has economic growth? That's Mr. Kim's guarantee of maintaining power over decades. Yes. I mean, the economy is small and not doing terribly. Well, it'd be a long time before the economy can finance huge weapons expenditure. Even now devotes a massive show GDP to buy weapons, but it's clear that it's the technological level is conventional weapons is pretty rudimentary. So it depends to defend itself against the highly sophisticated weapons of his enemies all who thinks is enemies in in the region and the United States the way it defends itself against those visted weapons is with the nuclear deterrent will quite I mean, how do we escape the feeling that North Korea is? Getting more and more of it what it wants. But never any moves on on denuclearization. I think that's a hard question to answer. One thing that has been gained is that the haven't been more tests. So there's some feeling that for as long as north doesn't test than it's becoming slightly less dangerous is not completing the miniaturization of the warhead one hopes. And so there's a there's a feeling that perhaps. It's less dangerous if it's not testing, that's that's kind of some gain that the rest of the world is getting. But you're right. They have to think quite hard about how much they're willing to relax sanctions without seeing really concrete steps towards denuclearization. And the thing that's really key. I think some point the north is going to have to come up with a complete inventory of everything that it has. And we, you know, you'll know that it serious when the north has come out with his infantry Tillett does with just dancing around. Really? I mean, there is some sense that perhaps this is perhaps a bit of theater on. On both parts right on on Mr Kim, looking to to be seen to be getting concessions from the west Mr. Trump being seen to be a, you know tackling extremely thorny longstanding problem of diplomacy as it just the what is he's to make fun of some bits of it. The Trumpian tweets and of Trump's Egan's to be nominated for the Nobel peace prize. But I think there's something very serious at St. to the first of these is the north Trump was warned was a growing threat when he was coming into office. I and we've seen the cessation of tests. And that's something that's really worth having the second is that it's unacceptable to have North Korea able to hit the United States with a nuclear armed ICBM. No, president can stand for that. And so this something deadly serious here as well as the kind of grandstanding and the style in which Trump does. That's very Trumpian. But he is grappling with a fundamentally important issue for the security, nited states and for the security of the entire part of Asia.

North Korea Mr. Kim President Donald Trump United States Singapore Vietnam Denuclearization South Korea Kim Jong Hoon Donald Trump Kim Jong Asia Seoul Lena Schipper Bureau Chief Inter-Korean
"lena schipper" Discussed on The Economist Radio

The Economist Radio

12:44 min | 3 years ago

"lena schipper" Discussed on The Economist Radio

"Us at radio at a communist dot com. Next, the eminent historian Lord, Robert skittles sqi his perhaps best known for his three volume biography of John Maynard Keynes. He's now written a new book called money and government. A challenge to mainstream economics, welcome to money talks. What were you trying to achieve in this new book? I was dissatisfied with the way both money and government had been fear is by mainstream economics ever since it started really. That is the idea that money is purely an intermediary and has never independent influence on on on outcomes in the idea that government was simply and interference with the otherwise hormone your seperation of market forces and ever since Adam Smith freely. You can find those ideas at the heart of economics. Hence the title, the challenge to mainstream economics. Canes did challenge them, and there was a Keynesian era when both of those ideas were were pushed aside. But then that in turn was succeeded by the restoration of the mainstream. And I think it was the mainstream that was in power so to speak. When we got into the crisis of two thousand and eight and many of the mainstream ideas can be found in what I would call the botched attempts to get us out of the crisis. So obviously, this is significant debate still. I mean, the was a fiscal stimulus in the immediate aftermath of the two thousand eight crisis. Golden Brown is sometimes tributaries as being the man who inspired this trillion dollar savior savior of the world. Exactly. So Keynes's ideas disappeared completely at that stage. No. But what had disappeared was the the possibility of a crash like this from happening when it did happen, then I think politicians would determine to prevent a repetition of a great depression that learned that much and that learned that it was politically far too risky to adopt the Hayek kin solution which was to lower the crisis. Toronto schools allow a lot of banks to fail, allow the economy to collapse for bit and then so bound back on its own. They they, they realized that was much too risky. So there was a huge stimulus. And I think most economists now except that the stimulus stopped the slide into another great depression. But the point is it was then abandoned before before Konami had fully recovered by any means. That was a resumption of growth in the last quarter of two thousand nine quite quite reasonable growth. And then the engines were reverse and a steady became the order of the day, the very much the emphasis of the last eight years since shift in two thousand and ten is being on monetary policy rather than fiscal policy. So undoubtedly there's been a monetary stimulus, but you argue in the book that really fiscal policy ought to take back the prime mo- driving force for reviving the economy. Yeah, I think both both preventing things like this from happening prevention is more important than cure, really, and and say, if you do get into into another situation like this, then then fiscal policy should be the engine of recovery. I think monetary policy turned out to be quite weak. I think monetary policy was useful, and certainly it had some stimulating effect. Stimulating effect. I think largely to offset the fiscal austerity. But even this is again, Cain said something very important here. He said there's many as slip. Twix Kappen lip. There was a lot of leakage. Central banks pumped money into the economy Varvara that purchases of government debt, but I love it wasn't spent. It was saved. And as a result, the stimulus was much weaker. And I think that took the central banks by surprise because they thought they were doing enough to hit their inflation targets, but they didn't and and say, really, the recovery was inadequate and introduce it quite lopsided because the money, the way they did. It went the holders of existing assets who have a great tendency to save anyway. And if they didn't save they buy existing assets. Now what you describe in the end of your book, which is these investment programs. Indeed, the national investment Bank to fund it sounds very, like current labor party policy g think labor party policy in aggregate would be good for the UK economy? Well, I think I'm very happy to anyone takes up these ideas and as it as it as it happens. The labor party is being more receptive to them than than than the existing government because the existing government is too large extent hostage to the Estero policies of Osborne, just throw bricks at into that mix. Let's assume labor has good policies as far as you're concerned on on fiscal policy. If in two years time we have a new labor government where out of the EU then the other policies involve much higher taxes for companies, much higher Texas on executives, nationalization without full compensation. In some industries, changes to labour laws make you more expensive too high workers. Do you think that that those policies will attract the foreign invest. -ment that Britain might need. You know when people are considering whether to invest in the UK which will suddenly have lost the links with Europe that previously made it attractive. Very hard to to answer that and and the answers we did know. But my my gut feeling is that if the some of policies actually causes the market to boom, in other words, if there's more aggregate demand the economy that will attract money, if only I'll hand you have something an economy that's raw stagnant with with a very, very low growth rate than anything of the kind yo- describing will simply be an excuse, not to invest in Britain. But the reason for not investing in Britain would be that the economy is is performing poorly. Not that the government policy is discouraging investment. I've always thought it sat way round. When people see a market, they will spend and produce things. If they don't see the market, then then they, they won't. And they'll always. Blame the government then for not creating the market or enabling the market that would allow them to invest. I'm so the government always gets it wrong. I didn't agree with every item of labor policy, certainly not. But I think if you look at the growth of inequality, huge growth of inequality since the nineteen eighties that must be connected with the loss of union boggling, PA. A much larger proportion of the the workforce was unionized in the seventies and eighties than it is today. And it's still case in Germany, whether retained manufacturing base much more successfully than we have. Of course, the whole purpose of Thatcherism was to destroy British manufacturing in order to destroy the unions. Uncontroversial point. Goodell ski. Thank you very much. Finally, the north and South Korean lead is together today in North Korea's capital Pyongyang. It's the latest in a series of unprecedented meetings between the two countries, but what are the hopes of South Korean firms now that the relationship between the two is thorn in April moon Jae-in, South Korea's president and Kim yeoman North Korea's dictator signed an agreement in which they vowed to revive ties, including economic ones between both countries. Lena Schipper is the sole bureau chief for the economist, sir. Lena all-south, Korean businesses actually excited about these opportunities. Philip, yes, there are some South Korean businesses. I would say which which very excited about the the opportunities chiefly among them, the ones who used to operate in the case on industrial complex, which was a sort of special economic zone just over the border at North Korea that was open about decade before shut down. In two thousand sixteen after missile tests by the northern regime. And there are lots of people who who in these companies who have very, very hopeful that it can be reopened. They can go back and reclaim some of the equipment that was left there that they never got back after it was charted. So they're certainly very excited. There's another group of business people who are not quite as excited, I would say, but the leaders of the Chambal the sort of big South Korean conglomerates who quite reticent initially, I think to to accept the invitation, the moon Jae-in extended to them last week to accompany him to Pierre. But in the end they went so I guess that they also see the opportunities on the other side of the border because it's a fabulously poor country, isn't it? It's not like it's you're breaking into China or some of the market weather potential movie huge. That's an extremely difficult marketer operation. I mean, the first hurdle of the everybody has is the fact that it still on the sanctions by the United. Nations and also additional sanctions by America. So present any dream of economic engagement. All business development and North Korea is illegal anyway, so on unless proper progress is made on the nuclear negotiations with North Korea, anything of that sort any of the things that the castle people are dreaming about that moon Jae-in streaming about just not be possible the even after that there are lots of adults, no private properties technically still illegal and North Korea. So you wouldn't really know how to protect your property rights. Once you were there, there's also tower experiences that firms have had in the path of just not having their contracts on of having property confiscated of essentially being kicked out of thera invent the Egyptian company. For instance, Orascom that sets up the move on network in North Korea. They never repatriated any prophets and they sensually lost control of their business about three years ago. So the chances are not looking exactly rosy, but. It's all Paul tolls an attempt by South Korea to increase ties is not generally welcome among the population. Would you say. Among South Koreans here and Solan and elsewhere across the country, I think did of improving relations North Korea's generally very popular just because people will very scared last year when Donald Trump was tweeting about fire and fury, and Kim Jong endless issuing sorts threats that the first and firing line. So the last thing they want is a ramping up of tensions. But I think once people realize that all of this is going to come with high costs and it's going to be very difficult and that probably the ones that are going to pay for it, they become up de listen to stick. So I think it's a very tricky tight rope to walk for me. Thank you very much. Thanks. That's all for this episode of money talks, don't forget to rate us on your podcast provider, and if you want to vote for communist radio in the lovey awards, you can't. We'd be no one as it in three categories. Goto lovey awards dot EDU. I'm Phil Cogan in London. This is the economist. This economy podcast was brought to you by Credit Suisse. Entrepreneurial ideas can change the world as a Bank with deeply rooted entrepreneurial heritage at Credit Suisse. We are driven by the idea of making progress happen. Do you have what it takes to be entrepreneurial? Find out what makes this way of thinking different and what you can learn from it, discover more at Credit Suisse dot com, slash progress.

North Korea South Korea John Maynard Keynes Credit Suisse Britain Adam Smith Robert skittles Canes Konami Toronto UK national investment Bank EU Golden Brown Germany mo Cain
"lena schipper" Discussed on The Economist Radio

The Economist Radio

04:31 min | 3 years ago

"lena schipper" Discussed on The Economist Radio

"The more the evidence comes through that this election is not fair than the more they will come under pressure by human rights groups by the opposition to set the FAI as such. So there's a real conundrum ahead. I think between those who value stability above all else, and those that, frankly, value democracy, Joe McDermott. Thank you very much. Joining us. Mixed up since North Korea's first, nuclear testing, two thousand six. The UN has imposed new miss sanctions on the country in the temp to persuade it to give up its pursuit of nuclear weapons. The sanctions are still in place despite the summit in Singapore and may between Kim Jong UN and Donald Trump, but that'd be reports China's been easy, pulling forcing them, but how much of sanctions being hurting North Korea's economy. I'm joined on the phone by Lena Schipper economists. So bureau, chief, Helena, nice limit. I've seen this week that the South Koreans have been producing some data on the North Korean economy, suggesting it it's been doing very badly. Yes, that's right. The South Korean central Bank which has been monitoring economic data from North Korea for almost thirty years now, sincerely nine hundred ninety s release a new estimate last week that suggests that in twenty seventeen the North Korean economy shrank by three and a half percent, which is more than any time since nineteen ninety seven when North Korea was in the throes of a massive famine and things were going really very badly. Indeed, it's very difficult to gauge what the North Korean economy actually looks like even for the Bank of career that has access to data from the intelligence services that other people don't necessarily have access to. So what they do is they don't. There's no data that's released from North Korea itself. They haven't released their own statistics since the nineteen sixties. The. Bank career gets various estimates from the intelligence services in South Korea from its agricultural institute measures crop kills some of the data from Chinese trade statistics with North Korea because China's North Korea's biggest trading partner and they produce these estimates and those estimates of how you address that the economy shrank by locked in in twenty. Seventeen. So how does the Banca careers picture correspond with visitors to kill Yang into North Korea? See when they go, they're the reason that some people are skeptical about the estimates that the Bank of career released is that that assessment, which is based on estimates on various data from the intelligence emphasis Chinese trade statistics, observations of copy else. That kind of thing does not tally with other indicators that people usually vertu when they try to gauge the state of the North Korean economy and two of those indicators of fuel prices and exchange rates. The thing about the. Exchange rate is an official exchange rate of the North Korean one with the dollar which nobody uses, but there's a black market, right? We're just been pretty much stable since Kim Jong UN took over from his father and twenty eleven, which suggests that there hasn't been any major economic crisis in which hasn't moved over the past couple of years. So it's very difficult to see how that tally with the assessment from the Bank of career that suggests this big recession and there's also no movement and fuel prices that we've seen that would suggest that there's massive trouble in the North Korean economy and I suppose on trade, they would have to rely on North Korea's trading partners. Mainly China, which would have an interest in to the extent that it's been evading or been failing to enforce sanctions an interest in talking down the amount of trade being done. That's completely correct. Chinese Trade Center sticks and generally regarded with a lot of skepticism by communists and particularly when it comes to North Korea for precisely that reason. So is the impression then that North Korea in a way has been quite successful at getting round. Sanctions the North Korean economy has been under sections. Yes, for almost ever really. I mean, the current sanctions regime is law stricter than it used to be the the United Nations in the United States also stepped up sanctions massively last year and response to Kim Jong UN's military provocations missile tests, but because the economy's been under sanctions for so long already, North Korea's had a lot of opportunities to develop, really, sometimes quite canny strategies to guess around existing sanctions..

North Korea Kim Jong UN South Korea China UN Joe McDermott Chinese Trade Center Lena Schipper Singapore United Nations Helena Donald Trump United States Yang