19 Episode results for "Lee Druckman"

Chaos at the Capitol: What Next? Lee Drutman

How Do We Fix It?

25:31 min | 4 months ago

Chaos at the Capitol: What Next? Lee Drutman

"This is a special episode of. How do we fix it. Were recording this show. One day after rioters encouraged by the president storm the us capital in the weeks and months to come. There's going to be a lot to say but but right now we're all shaken ever since we launched this podcast richard. We've talked about how the country heels how we encourage healthier conversations and Oppose the kind of alien nation and extremism that that drive somebody apart and it's discouraging morning looking back at the events of yesterday we have a long way to go political. Scientists lee droppin. Where do we go from here. What trump has done is criminal. I think what a number of republicans in congress have been doing is borderline incitement to riot as well. It's a moment in which we we simply cannot tolerate justify making excuses for what happened. Our show is about fixes. Yeah how to make the world a better place. How do we fix it. Fix it richard. I was out on a hike with my family. Took a day off. Who a beautiful day for a hike and just had a lovely day. Got back to the car in the late afternoon and checked my phone and twitter just lit up with scenes of of something to me very very horrifying and inc we all we all felt this and we all feared this might becoming being the pollyanna i m. I always thought oh don't get your knickers and a twisted might not be that we've had these conversations many times on this show right. Yeah absolutely and i think i was with you. I was hoping that we could all get through this relatively unscathed. And and how wrong. I was unlike you jim. I was actually watching the play by play as it happened and felt i was on an emotional roller coaster throughout the awful events at the capitol. I thought we check in with one of the leading political scientists of our time. A man who has argued for fundamental reforms of our democracy. We call lee druckman. Lee is a political scientist and associated with the new america. think tank. He was on our show episode. Two thirty nine talking about his book breaking the two party doom loop in which he advocates for opening up our political system. So it's not reliant on these two political parties but has a more diverse group of potential parties that people can can gravitate to and once again. Jim we recorded this show one day after the utterly shocking events at the us capitol. I started by asking lee for his. Take on what's just happened. My personal responses that i'm shaking. I feel sick to my stomach. I am also not surprised. I'm angry and i'm determined. I feel like we are really in a fight for the continuation of american democracy at this point and The good news is that i think pro democracy forces outnumber the anti democracy forces. But i think we have to join together and and act like it when you say you're not surprised why well i'm not surprised because the president has been inciting violence because he's been telling his supporters. The election is stolen because the republican party has for years been telling voters that if they lose the election than everything they stand for will be taken away from them and because right wing forums. All kinds of internet conspiracies have been calling for violence. There's been a sort of sense on a lot of these message boards that we are about to have a second civil war and there's been a kind of valorization of this this violence In a lot of corners and even just right before the storming of the capital The president's lawyer rudy giuliani was calling for trial by combat. Leeann your book breaking the two party doom loop. You talk a lot about how this two party system sometimes leads to a kind of all or nothing approach to politics you either win or lose and and something perhaps drives people to the extremes more than a system that might provide voters with more options to express their particular concerns. Do you see any of that plane out here man. That's certainly how this election has been perceived Right i mean that trump and his allies have been saying for a long time. If democrats win they will use their powers to to destroy the american way of life and it's that all or nothing thinking that follows from from an all or nothing political system in which onside wins total power in the other side feels totally shut out and we know from looking at history of democracies. Is that when one side feels. Shut out of power and feels like it has been illegitimately denied power. Violence becomes the other option lee. You were among political scientists who oversaw an opinion poll that asked americans if they thought it could ever be justified for the political party. They support to use violence to advance. Its goals the overwhelming response. Three years ago was no just eight. Percent of americans said that it could but that same question was asked a few months ago and a considerably greater number of people answered yes. Violence might be justified. Discuss those findings. Yes it's a hard thing to poll because it's it's not clear what people always mean by violence. Also what people might say to. A pollster doesn't necessarily describe what actions they would actually take in real world but nonetheless. It's it's quite disturbing to see that there's been probably at least a tripling or quadrupling of of the share of americans who endorse violence. Now i i also wanna focus on the on the positive side of that. Which is the overwhelming majority of americans. Still reject violence. But again i. I think the challenge that we're in right now. Is that a minority of americans who believe in violence who a don't believe in democracy are having an outsized effect on our political system because stave taken over to a large extent a single-party at parties. The republicans you have a way of taking a long view on some of these trends. What are some of the roots of this rise in tolerance for considering that that violence might be an acceptable pat towards political change that we've seen in our society not just in the last few months or years but perhaps going back a little farther. What's happening how to democracy is get to violence. It happens in moments in which political parties basically divided into into two coalitions. Or just you know two parties in which you have a real binary split and one side sees the other side is not just the opposition but also the enemy not just a different political party but a threat to their existence and under such conditions. Democracy doesn't hold because democracy requires free and fair elections in which there is a process that everybody believes his fair. And that if your size loses than you know that's okay. But if the other side poses several a threat that losing is just not okay then anti-democratic violence other other abuses of power than suddenly seem justified because the threat of the other party taking power seems so dangerous. So that's where we are now in the united states. It's a far cry from the political system decades ago. what happened. How we got here is a long and complicated story. But you know. I think to oversimplify it. You talk about three broad trends. The broader nationalization of of our politics you know more and more of the focus of people's energies has ban on washington and the control of power in washington. Basically we've had thirty years of extremely close national elections so the closeness of elections is the second factor in which fifty one or fifty two percent majority leads to total power leaves the other forty eight percent out of power and the third is the the sorting of the political parties in that we used to have the sort of much broader overlapping political parties are liberal republicans conservative republicans liberal democrats and conservative democrats. And so it didn't matter so much which party to power because folks across a broader spectrum of values and ideologies would be represented somehow no matter what but as the two parties have really sorted into these very distinct non overlapping coalitions that has raised the stakes of these elections. Anyway i i think there's another point that's a little bit more more subtle but it's that the parties themselves remain these sort of broad coalitions in which there's not as much agreement as you might think but the way that the parties maintain their their unity is through demonization that there's actually within the republican party. I think in particular. There's a lot of disagreements about the policy direction of the party. But what holds the party together and i think part of the reason that trump has been so successful is a hatred of the left and trump has really elevated at us the unifying force talk about president trump's role in all this he for years said that american democracy is fraud he has talked about. His opponents is being enemies of the people. It was clear that if the election didn't go his way that he would deny that it was held in any way fairly and yet the election was fairly close. Is that a shock in itself that so many people knowing that we had a president who didn't believe in democracy voted for him well. The election is a binary choice and most people will find reasons to justify sporting their party and it may be because they are enthusiastic about being republicans or they may be terrified of what it would mean for democrats to be in power because they've been said a series of extreme caricatures in lies about the democratic agenda as somehow eliminating all police and having to socialism but when you surround yourself with other people who share your same political beliefs consume media diet of basically propaganda. It's very easy to see the other side as far more extreme radical than they are at the republican national convention. Mike pence gave a speech in which he said that the election is fundamentally about whether america remains america. I mean think about that for a minute. That is a profound statement and republicans were seen as the defenders of that because republican voters have a long-standing allegiance to the republican party They continue to support trump. so it doesn't surprise me at all that the election was close. People who are republicans in consume republican media have a very different perspective of trump. Than than i do and a very different perspective of the left than i do lay. Just push back a little bit And not to defend the. The trumpian worldview long shot. But we did just have a year in which there were riots across the country that were relatively tepidly criticized by by many on the left. There were quite a few people who've said de fund. The police even abolish the police. And when and when other leaders on the democratic side said well we don't really mean that some of them came back and said oh we absolutely do that so an agenda that did moved sizably left. I mean chomsky before the election said that he was thrilled to see the most left wing platform that he'd seen in memory from the democratic party. Aren't we seeing both sides kind of the more tolerant of their most extreme elements than would be desirable. Yeah i mean. I think it's certainly correct to say that. The democratic platform is more to the left than it has been a very long time but does not have anything to do with subverting democracy. Well that was. That was my next point. Is that the big thing that actually is that. The big difference between the left and or the sort of far left in the far right. Is that the far. Left is fundamentally supportive of representative. Democracy believes. that should be easy to vote to not question election results. Whereas i the far right is fundamentally about subverting democracy at this point and on the issue of democracy in there is absolutely no equivalence between bernie sanders and donald trump. There is no equivalent between afc and josh hawley. Didn't hillary clinton questioned whether the election was fair. Raise some questions but she conceded immediately as someone who comes from a more conservative often see the elements of extremism on the left. Don't get a lot of attention. They they don't get condemned. I think is as much as they should. But you also don't want to fall into a sort of a false equivalence. I mean this is a a dramatically new phase for us. What happened yesterday. And i certainly think that people on the right need to make sure that they don't dismiss. Just how scary and serious. This is amen. It's how do we fix it. i'm richard davies. And i'm jim mags and coming up. We'll discuss some potential solutions. We're back with lee druckman of the new america think-tank lee. What do we do with all this where troubled were upset were disturbed were shaken. But what next well to me. The answer is democracy reform. And i think the fundamental problem is that we have a two-thirds probably pro democracy coalition that is able to act like a super majority and there is a minority of anti democratic ethno fascists. Who have taken over the republican party and because we have a two party system there's really no space for those on the right who believe in democracy to operate so my view is we need a more multi party. Proportional system in which a centre-right party could distinguish from a far right extremist party and work with a coalition of liberals from you know maybe somewhat to the left to a little bit further to the left to you know marginalize. The extremists and at the the model here is western europe You look at germany as as an example there You know there is a far-right already but they are Not in government to me. That's the solution. We changed the way we run elections. We make them more. Proportional allows space for more parties. And that that also is a way of breaking what i call the two-party doom loop. Which is this escalating sense. The other side represents existential threat which justifies more and more extreme actions. Are there some other things we can do. And how we discussed this. How we how we frame it how we talk about it with our friends and families that could help. Lower the temperature to me. I think it's important to to call out the enemy for what it is. I think what trump has done his his criminal. I think what a number of republicans in congress have been doing. Is you know borderline incitement to riot as well. it's a moment in which we simply cannot tolerate justify. Make excuses for what happened. Back in the sixties there was a that whole sort of rabidly anti-communist john birch society wing of the republican party. That many podcast listeners might not realise how how wacky these people were and it wasn't just that they were against communism which was a real thing. It's that they literally thought that. There were communist all over the government and and needed to be rooted out and sort of joe mccarthy style and the republican party had a strong enough center and respected leaders even on the far right like barry goldwater Who were able to come together and kind of push that crazy wing out of the party not tolerate them. Could you see something like that. Coming up out of the ashes of these events. Maybe certainly hope so. You know. I think there is a pretty deep rot. Now expanded to levels of power. That the far-right birger societies of the fifties and sixties. Never quite did. Maybe we will have the joe mccarthy moment in which suddenly trump goes away and there's a everybody suddenly says you know what have we wrought but the thing that makes me uncertain about that is just how much supporters of trump have been outspoken. And how many people who had previously oppose trump have justified and pandered and echoed his craziness that being said. Are you hopeful in any way that this is a wakeup call. I am hopeful I think this has been a tremendous wake up call for a lot of people. There's a sense that you know these people actually mean business and By these people. I mean the people who attended the trump rally and storm the capital and the and the people who took the podium at the trump rally. And that you know. This is not just peaceful protesting mrs this violence as terrorism and this is a real threat finally. There's a a wake-up moment in which a lot of folks on the writers say. Oh we actually have to condemn this And i think people are are looking for an alternative way of of governing ourselves at this moment. Thanks a lot for joining us. Yeah no my pleasure. Thanks for for reaching out and thinking of me. Political scientists lee druckman of the new america. Think tank coming up our conversation one of the things that i found most interesting about this interview. Jim was your question regarding the nineteen fifties and the john birch society that we do have what one political scientists called a paranoid style in our political system. This pops up every once in a while. i don't in any way want to dismiss the awful events of this past week but it. It's not entirely unprecedented right. Richard hoffstetter historian wrote that essay. The paranoid style. In american politics. I think around one thousand nine hundred sixty two. You can find it online. It's a wonderful piece of writing. He was focused on these extreme delusional. Ultra right wingers. I actually saw that revived in the mid early. Audits with all the conspiracy theories around nine eleven. I think some of the routes were seen of the problem today were revealed early in the willingness of soul many people and then mostly on the left not on the right It was so many people to think that the people running our government were evil and and incredibly powerful and able to organize these vast conspiracies and some of them. Were you know talking about the need to overthrow a corrupt government. A lot of the kind of stuff you see here started back then but then it got picked up by the right and you have to look at trump is a major driver of this. You can't forget you know. He went on the alex jones radio show and he was campaigning for president. I was horrified by that. And this idea that you can define your own reality by your politics. You don't have to listen to anybody else. There's there are no facts. There are no. Everything's how you feel is a deep thing going on in our culture it predates trump and it and i think that it's gonna take the work of generation to get us back to some sense that we share a vision of reality where we can then sit down and discuss what we should do in terms of policy. Well that's very profound thing that you just said jim that it will take the work of a generation absolutely right and part of that. Work is going to be a reckoning for how technology works into all of this and how what was once the crazy uncle in the attic has now come thumping down into the living room of american politics because of the way that Rumors crazy theories are spread on the internet via social media. This will be a major project for. How do we fix it in the coming months. I'm sure and i'm and i'm hopeful that we can bring in some smart people who can help us work together to look to repair some of this damage to bring back some some some normalcy and some common sense. That's our show for today. I'm richard davies. And i'm jim megs. How do we fix it is produced by miranda shaffer and is a production of davies content. We make podcasts for companies in nonprofits. Please check us out at davies. Content dot com and as always. Thanks for listening. Thanks for subscribing and thanks me for being part of our community. This podcast is part of the democracy group.

lee druckman republican party lee droppin new america us trump richard lee president trump rudy giuliani de fund sizably congress josh hawley washington jim mags political party Jim
Column: American Democracy Can't Survive Unless the Far Right Is Marginalized. Here's How to Do It

TIME's Top Stories

10:48 min | 2 months ago

Column: American Democracy Can't Survive Unless the Far Right Is Marginalized. Here's How to Do It

"Brought to you by tax tips if you've ever wondered about the facts fiction and best practices when it comes to taxes turbo tax. Tips can help with expert tips and five minutes or less. It's quick and easy to learn how to maximize your tax refund. Just search turbo tax tips. Wherever you listen to podcasts. American democracy can't survive and less. The far right is marginalized. Mir's how to do it by lee druckman. Druckman is a senior fellow in the political reform program. At new america author of breaking the two party doom loop the case for multiparty democracy in america and co host of the politics in question podcast as our nation comes to grip with the horrific events of january sixth and watches. The republican party descend further into trumpism as it pushes hundreds of restrictive voting laws across the country. The obvious question is how does american democracy come back from all this. There is a path forward. The super majority of americans across the political spectrum who reject the extremism need to come together. This includes the pro democracy right but for the pro democracy. Right to thrive. We need to reform the us voting system to allow for new parties to emerge outside the existing two party system without electoral reform. Third parties are likely to fail as spoilers but only a new small l liberal republican party distinct from the increasingly illiberal trump is. Gop can establish a new partisan identity that gives center right voters meaningful home. A new party can create a distinct pathway to elected office that avoids the combativity hyper partisan republican primary voters a party faction cannot do these things left to fight a losing battle in the republican party. S the recent cpac confirmed the withering pro. Democracy faction is up against frightening odds electoral reforms that make space for more parties may seem unlikely but urgent times call for big changes. An american democracy has done big things before i. We need to understand the urgency of the problem by international standards. The current republican party is an illiberal anti-democratic nativist global outlier with positions. More extreme than france's national rally and in line with germany's afdc hungary's fidesz. Turkeys aka. p and poland's p. i s. according to the widely respected. V damn varieties of democracy institute. This is not a new problem. The gop has been sliding into authoritarianism over two decades using increasingly demonizing rhetoric against its opponents. But it got worse under trump's leadership and the failure of center right factions to push back. We are running out of time. What happens in a hyper polarized party system. When a major party against the entire system of legitimate elections historically democracy dies and yet if recent months and weeks have highlighted the dangerous extremism of the current republican party. They've also shown how broadly unpopular such violent extremism actually is three quarters of americans disapprove of the january sixth mom's actions and trump's seemingly immovable approval floor dropped by about more than six points in the days after only thirteen percent of americans considered themselves trump supporters while another sixteen percent considered themselves traditional republicans if trump supporters were their own party. They'd be about as popular as germany's far right af. Fd which pulled out about fifteen percent for twenty nineteen though their support more recently dropped off to eleven percent but the obvious difference. Is that germany. The popular center right. Cd you party headed by. Angela merkel was able to form a governing coalition with the centre-left keeping the afdc far away from in the us where governing power can fall. To a mere plurality of a plurality the center right has been overwhelmed by the far right in the republican party and because the us has a two party system the center right is largely homeless. If fighting for a place in the gop is pushing a heavy rock up a steep hill. Fighting for a place in the democratic party is pushing an even heavier rock up the side of a cliff but why is the united states. A two party system. It's not because voters won't just two parties for decades. Majorities of americans have told pollsters. They won't more parties to choose from and register their dissatisfaction with the two party system by increasingly identifying as independence. Rather it's because the. Us uses a system of first past the post. Single winner plurality elections for congress and such a system votes for third parties are wasted and parties are dismissed as spoilers all ambitious politicians thus set their sights on one of the two major parties. And because anybody can run in a party. Primary parties have very little control of their candidates. Marjorie taylor green for example was not selected by republican party leaders. She simply won her primary with the support of just forty three thousand eight hundred thirteen voters in a district of almost seven hundred thousand residents instead of being a minor party candidate. She is now an increasingly prominent republican the. Us is the only advanced democracy to give voters full control over party. Primary nominations and every other advanced democracy party leaders control nominations. The us is also the only genuine two party system among advanced democracies and absent major reform. That's not likely to change anytime soon. Historically the us two party system functioned reasonably well. Only because it operated more like a four-party system with liberal republicans largely from new england and the west coast and conservative democrats largely from the south and the mountain west elected alongside conservative republicans and the democrats and this four-party system parties operated like ping coalitions instead of opposing armies. Politics was more local unless national these overlapping parties rooted in more local political cultures meant more bargaining and congress and mccall's both parties had liberal and conservative wings. They wound up both being moderate overall reducing the stakes of national elections and the potential for demonizing the other side as radical. Take the nineteen ninety. Clean air act. One of the last major truly bipartisan bills that came out of congress which brought together democrats environmental activists with pro-market republicans for a bill that passed overwhelmingly but as the two parties began sorting more clearly along liberal conservative lines as culture war issues starting in the nineteen seventies and as american politics nationalized around these cultural issues and starting in the nineteen nineties as the longtime democratic control of the house ended every election became high stakes all or nothing fight for control of federal power in this high stakes nationalized context the liberal republicans and conservative democrats who had been the hinge groups in shifting policy. Coalitions were the casualties. The differences between the parties became sharper as the overlap vanished with its liberal wing marginalized. The gop became much more conservative and rural dominated by evangelical whites who saw their social status declining and whose hold on political power increasingly came to depend on counter majoritarian institutions like the senate and on voting rules that limited the franchise of democratic constituencies fueled by grievance dominated by reactionaries. The party became more anti-system more distrustful of the establishment and more receptive to the racist. Demagoguery and wild conspiracies that now dominates the party and led to the rise of donald trump. Even if most americans may reject this extremism the constrained geography of the right gives this ideology affirm hold on the republican party and in a two party system the republicans still remain the only alternative for those uncomfortable with the democrats. The only way to elevate the moderate republicans is for congress to use its constitutional authority article one section for to change how we vote and create electoral opportunities for a center right to rise again and the house. This would mean multimember districts with ranked choice voting combine existing districts into larger ones. Ideally five members let voters rank candidates and send the top five winners to congress. Massachusetts and maryland could start sending more charlie baker and louis hogan type center right representatives to congress and kansas and oklahoma could start sending more left representatives to congress and the senate elections could operate like main and alaska now do with ranked choice voting this will encourage more moderate coalition minded senators to emerge the combination of these. Two electoral reforms will open space for more parties. And especially for a new center right. Ideally we should also pass a constitutional amendment to elect the president in a two round system using the national popular vote but the congressional election reforms require only legislation so they should have top priority. The threats to american democracy are terrifying. But the good news is that a super majority of americans consistently reject the tear it all down extremism the bad news however is our two party system presents a major obstacle to that supermajority asserting itself electoral reform to allow multiparty. Democracy is an urgent necessity if it's democrats versus republicans. American democracy is in deep trouble. But if it's small l liberals versus illiberal extremists. We might yet survive and the most likely way to achieve this. Urgent realignment is to change the voting system to break up the two party binary.

republican party us lee druckman Druckman democracy institute germany gop congress new america Marjorie taylor green Mir cpac afdc Angela merkel hungary
Does Trump Have an Iran Strategy?

The Argument

42:44 min | 1 year ago

Does Trump Have an Iran Strategy?

"It's the housing crisis. No one is talking about. Millions of hardworking families are struggling to find homes in their own communities. Take First Responder Officer Ramal Johnson. He and his family family searched for years in the pricey Washington. DC area with no luck then. Last February Melk lied to wells. Fargo's neighborhood lift program which offers down payment assistance grants. Soon soon. He and his family found a place to call their own. Learn more about wells. Fargo's new strategic efforts to help families find affordable homes visit wellsfargo dot com slash impact. I'm Michelle Goldberg. I'm Rostow said I'm David Leonhardt. And this is the argument this this week. What is trump strategy for a wrong? The killing US little money is an admission that this campaign of punishing sanctions that has failed them. Could America really say goodbye to the two party system. A guest makes the case that we can and should I think the greatest threat to our democracy. Accuracy right now is hyper partisanship and finally a recommendation. The sleek corporate hamster stores separate. They're male and female hamsters but the funkier Mom and pop pet stores do not and last week's killing of Iranian General Qasim Soleimani has sparked the most serious foreign conflict of the trump presidency. Iran has responded by announcing the ramping up of its nuclear program and by promising reprisal attacks against the United States. We're going to start by trying to make sense of what trump trump is trying to do here. The trump administration really has had in Iran strategy over the past couple of years. It wanted to be tougher on the regime than Obama had been to both crackdown on Iran's nuclear program and force it to cause less trouble throughout the Middle East. So Ross how do you think the killing of Sulamani fits into that strategy. Can you help us make sense of that. I can try. I think you could make the argument this way. Basically that the trump administration looked at it than Obama nuclear deal and the outreach to Iran and said look we essentially Dane some kind of if deal on nuclear issues at the expense of allowing Iran to spread its footprint in all kinds of other ways around the region and that means effectively actively building up quasi proxy states and militias and supporting military activities. You know everywhere from Syria to Yemen and instead we should basically try and put pressure on them in ways that ideally would bring them back to the table and get a better deal but even if they don't do that then at the very least make it harder for Iran to project power outside its borders. And that's what the sanctions nations theoretically do. And I think if you want to argue that this is all of a piece than the killing of Sulamani fits into that argument because basically basically. It's a an attempt to strike at the most effective Iranian imperialist the most effective Iranian figure who was sort of spreading arraigned and influence and winning tactical military victories for Iran throughout the region. So in that sense it's it's in keeping with the sanctions actions and other efforts. The trump administration has made to box in Iran. You boxed them in now you take away their best general and you leave them weaker Outside their borders than before right but the whole rationale for killing Selemani is that they haven't been boxed in right. You Kill Sola money because they have been projecting force in all kinds of ways You know in Syria and in Iraq. The very things that this maximum pressure campaign was supposed to curtail so in a way the killing of slow money is an admission that maximum pressure this campaign of punishing sanctions that was supposed to so crush Iran on that it would no longer be able to fund its various proxies and would be forced to negotiate a more stringent nuclear deal. That has failed right. The the Obama nuclear deal succeeded on its own terms and I think conservatives will say it's not worth it to just freeze the nuclear program and not address all of these as other issues with Iran and the region on his own terms. It worked in on its own terms. Maximum pressure has been a failure. And so now you have basically the scene. People who said that maximum pressure would lead Iran to kind of come to the table with its tail between his legs. Say essentially the same thing about killing Sulamani Lemani you know. We have an administration at least the people who are left. We talk about their kind of fundamental lack of empathy in terms of black of of sympathy. Eh or they're sort of inherent sadism but I think the lack of empathy also just means they just cannot see that to Iran they seem like the aggressor. I was talking to Vali Nasser. WHO's in Iran expert and was an advisor to Obama State Department? It was saying you know yes US Conservatives will say well we've now reestablished deterrence right. Iran has seen that. It can't get away with these provocations but from the Iranian perspective. He I said you know it's the they're the ones that need to reestablish deterrence because they were abiding by this deal the United States pulled out of it starts pressuring their economy and all sorts of ways Iran responds and then they take this. You know sort of massive Somewhat unprecedented step of killing bear number two official and and so from Iran's point of view if they don't establish some kind of deterrence either just going to get walked all over and you don't have to kind of see Iran on is the good guy or you don't have to see Iran as justified to think that that is a reasonable interpretation of events from where they're sitting. I mean I WANNA say from my from my own part. I think that the idea that maximum pressure was likely to either lead to regime change dange or lead to some sort of dramatic new nuclear deal. I neither of those strike me as at all possible in part for some of the reasons did you just said and in part because in general you know we have a lot of history From Cuba to North Korea to Iran itself health of cases where regimes that were unpopular In certain ways at home nonetheless maintained power under intense international pressure And I think that's likely to happen in Iraq but let me just quickly that one of the kind of grotesque ironies here is that there actually was. I don't know how credible I don't know how substantial but there was a real challenge to the regime very recently occasioned by economic crises right you had these massive protests that were met with massive repression you you also had democratic protest in Iraq against Iranian influence and in a stroke. This idiot has basically marginalized both of those movements because by making by sort of replacing activism against the regime with activism against America. Yeah I mean I think it's a little more ambiguous in the case of in Iraq. Where you know Sulamani was as far as we can tell helping literally direct the repression of those protests? Best right that you that you describe And in that sense I mean I think as I said at the outset to the extent that there's a case that makes sense it's a case not about Iran's intentions but about Iran's capacities and I think there are people who will say that Iran's power projection in Syria Iraq Yemen and elsewhere around the region has been hampered by the sanctions has been hampered by the maximum pressure campaign. And you know I think I am not an expert on the military landscape of the Middle East. So I'm not going to be able to give you a case for why removing Sulamani would be a game changer and I think it probably wouldn't be but there are in cases in history where particularly brilliant military leaders have died or been removed from the field and his changed the balance of power in in the meeting for ways. So I think that's the only argument that makes sense. I agree with you that this doesn't give Iran incentives to make a deal it arguably strengthened the regime's his position at home. I think the only case you can make for it is a case that look the trump administration doesn't think Iran's GonNa stop doing what it does around the region unless you literally blow by blow sanctioned by sanction now assassination bisazza nation reduce. Its capacity to do so and to be clear. This is not the argument that the trump officials are really making themselves. Trump is someone who is basically the Jacksonian meaning. He someone who has the foreign policy. Impulsive consists this of saber rattling loudly avoiding war whenever possible but then doing the wildest thing possible when he feels like he's forced into action and that seems to be what happened here he doesn't want a war with Iran he accepted in Iran policy that led to Iran sort of trying to provoke us and attacks asked attack the Saudis in various ways. And he let himself be goaded into this action. I guess the thing that worries me a lot about this is this is an Please disagree with me if you do. This is a fundamentally new for move war in which one country kills a high ranking official official in another country and for the most powerful country in the world to blaze new ground or to bring back an old tactic and into then lie about it and I do think the trump administration is lying about the justification for this attack saying that was done to stop an imminent attack which doesn't even make sense I. I just feel like it's opening. Up a really worrisome new stage of warcraft around the world world and it reminds me of this piece that Jonathan Chait Road in New York magazine in which she said. Donald Trump's world view is basically to have the United States behave as many of as many of the world's worst governments in this case feels like we've gone beyond what many of the world's worst governments do and that just makes me feel really anxious about the state of of the world in some ways. This is sort of the worst case. Scenario of the trump administration that some of spirit from the beginning right which is that trump is threatened domestically domestically and I do believe that his domestic troubles led him to want to do some big game changing thing that would get impeachment out of the news right. He's he's always projecting checking he's always accusing other people of what he's going to do. And so I think it's telling that he constantly said that Obama was gonNA start a war with Iran to get his poll numbers up right. That's kind of how he thinks. Thanks for that's what he thinks. Someone in that position would do now. He's in that position. And so what terrifies me. Is that first of all. They're they're incapable of sort of grasping sping that what you do to someone else could then be done to you but also now we're in the situation where you know when I was talking talking to people before writing my Komo's asking what is the plausible offering appear in what is the way that this gets diffused. We're still worse. Then when we started off in terms of the fundamental conflict over Iran's nuclear program right because now Iran has concluded rightly. I think that the only way to protect yourself well from America is to have a nuclear weapon and they have basically said that they're no longer going to abide by any limits on their nuclear program. You saw others nuclear crisis right and so you have the question. Then is the trump administration going to basically accept a nuclear around the way it has accepted the expansion one of the nuclear program in North Korea. And I think trump himself might be inclined to do that but it's hard for me to see the people around him Being inclined inclined to do that so again I just I don't see what the as much as I don't think either. Government wants war. I just don't see what the possible off-ramps Ross. What do you? Oh you consider to be a plausible good case scenario in addition to this doing real harm to Iran by taking someone out who is a a force of evil in the world. I mean I think the best I think Michelle is right that there isn't some offramp here. I mean we've been in a day facto state of war with around since the late nineteen seventy s without anybody finding a perfect offramp. So I think I think the best case scenario is basically that the neoconservative alarmists were. You're always wrong about how quickly and easily Iran could get a bomb and that Iran resumes. Its push and we continue a campaign of pressure and sabotage. And in the meantime Iran is meaningfully weakened in certain ways around the region and things get better in certain ways in Syria and maybe parts parts of Iraq because of that Not Things don't get better in terms of our relationship with Iran but they get better in terms of the capacity of non Iranian forces to increase their influence in Lebanon Syria and northern Iraq. That I had some of the Nana reinforces that are going to increase their footprint in Iraq. DOC in Syria are isis right. And we're I think as we're taping this it's unclear what's going to happen with the American military presence in Iraq. But there's kind of there there doesn't seem to be very much question that Isis is going to be strengthened in Iraq doc and Syria as a result of this but also that Iran is going to be strengthened in Iraq as a result of this because if American forces are sent out of Iraq this is ironically Sulamainiya great goal and it seems like we are accomplishing it for him. I mean I think it's very easy since you asked me for a best case. Scenario David to sketch out the worst case scenario where this leads to or a worse case scenario where this leads to yeah at least reduced American footprint in Iraq doc a isis filling the power vacuum sort of reemerging from its defeat or some similar movement and at the same time at the the US bombing Iran's nuclear sites in a trump second term Leading to wider regional war. I think that's all certainly not impossible. I mean I think that one one thing that has happened throughout the trump presidency that makes me not quite ready to assume the worst case scenario areo yet is that trump does something and we all myself included right columns about how this shows that you know. His incapacity is totally manifesting itself and the world is about to fall apart and then things sort of stable is a little bit and the world sort of continues on its way and right now. You've even now as I think unwise as this may have been we're not yet at the level of something that goes as badly as the Obama administration's taking out Qaddafi in Libya wind or as badly as the first withdrawal from Iraq went which led to the original the rise of Isis. I'm trying to in certain ways you know put a little faith in the world capacity for self stabilization that it has manifested more more than I expected under trump. Let's end by talking about the politics for a minute and obviously we have to make some. Let's I hope informed guesses here because it's really hard to know how the politics will play out but Michelle. You've raised the prospect of the WAG. The dog scenario referring to the old movie in which the President Starts Award help him politically. I'm guess I'm a little bit skeptical that That would work for trump. I guess I'm skeptical. That chaos or even A war with Iran would actually help him politically deep. Do you see how it could no. I don't think it really does. I mean I think it pushes impeachment out of the news. Who's right and I think that given that trump is impulsive? That in itself might be a a win for him. But I mean if you look at the immediate polling after this It breaks down almost exactly on the lines of trump approval disapproval in the past. If anybody you know those of us who are old enough to be around owned for the run up to the Iraq war you know there was a lot of bullying you know. Why won't you admit that Saddam is such a monster obviously is a monster right and we kind of have to take seriously the views of all of these Iraqi dissidents who really want this war? I don't think that that you see attempts to do that. Again again. you know you see attempts by all of these people who've been apologizing for Putin for the last three years to suddenly say like how dare you not stand together with Donald Trump against America's enemies but it's just not gonna work anymore right. There's there's too much division. Donald well trump has so little credibility on every single metric including the metric of just kind of basic patriotism. That even even fairly hawkish Democrats don't feel any need to give him the benefit of the doubt on this and so you look at where it is right now where he has has about forty three percent approval of this strike. That's before any consequences become manifest so no I don't think it's ultimately good for him but I also think that again because he is so impulsive because he's so concerned about the next day's headlines what really scares me is less the idea that there's going to be a ground war in Iran. I think that's extremely unlikely but again because he's unwilling you. He's so determined to make the to both be maximally aggressive and sort of maximally insulated. I'm I'm really worried about atrocities. Don't think they're actually GONNA end up bombing cultural sites. You could end up seeing massive retaliation maybe even nuclear retaliation Russian If trump feels like he's being somehow embarrassed or threatened by the Iranian response. I mean I generally agree with Michelle I shall. I don't think this I don't think there's a real rally around the flag effect for trump. Maybe you could get one if there was some sort of. You've God forbid large scale radian terrorist attack on US soil But I think the Iranians will avoid doing that in part for precisely that reason in part because they may not have the capacities. I and you know you've got there's part of part of trump's gop that is pretty freidy antiwar at this point. It's not a huge part in much of the parties sort of falls in line but Tucker Carlson is at eight. PM on Fox not attacking trump attacking POMPEO and everybody around him For pushing US closer to war with Iran. And that's not that's not a sign of a policy that is catapulting halting trump too lofty approval ratings anytime soon but something dramatic would have to change. I think for him to be able to get the Pentagon gone to follow through on the kind of things that he threatens on twitter. And I don't see that change Hap- happening but what do you mean. Do you actually think that there are people in the Pentagon on who are GONNA say no to him. I mean it seems to Pentagon just put out a statement right saying that Cultural sites would never be a target so in fact they are right I I know but but if he but if he were to argue but if he were to authorize some sort of massive attack on Tehran or use of God forbid a nuclear weapon. I don't know I mean I like to think that somebody in the Pentagon would just say no but who would that be think that trump everything that I've seen from drum over the last three years and makes me extremely skeptical that he would ever do something like that and the Pentagon has software to guide things. I mean The Pentagon put this killing of Sulamani on its options and in the future. It can take things off that it really doesn't want to have happen but I share a lot of your worries Michelle. We will need to leave it there and take a break and be right back it's the housing crisis. No one is talking about. Millions of hardworking families are struggling to find homes in their own communities. Take AAC first responder officer Ronald Johnson. He and his family searched for years in the pricey Washington. DC area with no luck then last February romolo Clyde to wells Fargo's neighborhood lift lift program which offers downpayment assistance grants soon. He and his family found a place to call their own. Learn more about wells. Fargo's new strategic efforts to help families find affordable homes visit wellsfargo dot com slash impact. The United States has third parties libertarian. Green working families and more but none of them much matters at the federal level and many Americans don't feel well represented by either of the two major parties that alienating played a huge role in two thousand sixteen election making way for Bernie Sanders surprisingly good showing in the Democratic primary and even more so donald trump's shocking nomination the nation as the Republican candidate Lee Druckman is a political scientist at the new America. Think tank and he has a new book out called breaking the two party. Doom loop Lee thinks that it's both desirable and realistic for new parties. Spring up here in the United States and joins us now Lee. Welcome to the argument. Hey it's a it's a real pleasure to be here with you. We're going to try something new here in which you take a few minutes to lay out your argument without our interrupting and then Ross Michelle and I I will argue with you about it so we can make the case for third parties. The case I wanNA make is for proportional system of voting that allows for third parties to compete without being spoilers and to turn America into a multiparty democracy. Now I think the greatest threat to our democracy democracy right now is the hyper partisanship that is destroying our political institutions and breaking the shared sense of fairness and legitimacy that democracy mcreavy depends on splitting the nation essentially into this is not a sustainable situation. And it's really a feature of our two party system for for most of our political history. Those parties were overlapping. And we had something more like a multiparty democracy and I think that worked well with our institutions Russians which demand broad compromise and coalition building. And it's only really in the nineties that that kind of fell away and I would say by twenty ten We we had that dreaded. Two party system doesn't work with our institutions doesn't represent the diversity of America and it deprives a Lotta people of a meaningful vote because it means that most districts are lopsided One way or the other now the system that I propose We switched to is a system system that has been used in Australia has been used in Ireland and that would create modest multiparty democracy probably about four to six parties. It would mean multi member the district for the house combining The single district's now into probably districts of three to five members and ranked choice voting which is a system that ATN is now used in Maine New York City a bunch of other places in which voters get to rank their preferences and Candidates get eliminated from the bottom up until There are in a in a five winner system five winners in a single winner system one majority winter and I think it's totally a a feasible thing to do. We're we're seeing it in some cities and when I think about the broad history of American democracy I I see that we I've had these moments of of the reform. They've happened at times in which people have been incredibly frustrated with the status quo and I believe we can do it again. And I don't think there should be ARATU cool idea. Most countries around the world Most democracies use proportional voting systems. They have multiparty democracy's we had the Multi Party democracy within our two party system for a long time and that was the period in which American democracy worked reasonably well so the the truly radical experiment that we're running thing is having a genuine two party system with two parties representing fundamentally different values fundamentally different geographies and forcing every American to to make an artificially binary choice and so on and the system you imagine. Eat No five districts in Texas that right now all elect Republicans It might be that they said one Democrat and that the Republicans they now send become you know maybe there was Donald Trump Republican party and more of a Paul Ryan Republican Party and and and it would look more like that. I think that's that's exactly right. We would see probably a fracture into two or three parties on the right two or three parties on the left and then the parties would come together and build different coalitions on different issues and I think that would create a system in which. There's not one party that feels like it runs the risk of being permanently in the minority and not one party that that is trying to always try to win that elusive permanent majority and so much of the problem in our system. Is that neither party has a clear winning majority and both parties. Feel that if they fight hard enough they can be the majority and if they don't fight hard enough they're going to be in the permanent minority. So I I would say ninety. Five percent agree with Lee People who listen to this show before know that I've spoken really negatively about third parties because I think that within our system is currently constituted they can only play assertive nihilistic spoiler role and ensure that you know by voting third third party you make it more likely that the person who's ideologically farthest from you gets elected but yes if you have ranked choice voting in particular then it. It makes voting third-party feasible in Strategic and Multi member districts address. What I think is one of the biggest problems in American politics which is serve the increasing tendency towards minority rule by a rural wait a minority that is advantaged both by the structure of the Senate and the Electoral College but also just by the way that the populace is spread out so that you have kind of people in the cities really concentrated and Democrats and Democrats everywhere else Sort of impotent. Because you know if you're forty percent of a population you get zero representation but all that said what. I'm not sure I buy is the argument that it makes us less polarized because one thing that the two parties seem to do is sort of forced worst people who might be on the ideological edges into some sort of coalition before voting happens right so if there was is multi party democracy. Wouldn't you have a much bigger. You'd have much bigger kind of socialist representation and also probably a much. Bigger are far right nationalist style. You know kind of Marine Le Pen style party. I think all of that is true that you would have a broader diversity city of representation in Congress but I do think that there are some advantages to that One is that more people would feel represented and and the the big difference. Is that if you all. Politics is coalition building. And either you form the The coalition's before the election or after the election in multiparty democracy you form the coalition's after the election and what it means is that the coalition's can be more fluid inflexible We have two coalitions. Now they are distinct and non overlapping and there is very little flexibility in those coalitions. They're very rigid aged and neither has a clear majority in multiparty systems. You can form different coalitions at different times and those coalitions have to represent an actual majority now in the US. By winning. A plurality of a of a plurality party donald trump got total power and managed managed to take over the entire Republican Party and in the proportional systems in western Europe. Certainly there are far right parties but but they only wind up getting about fifteen percent of the vote and they don't go into coalition in government. Because nobody wants to form a coalition with them but to be but to be clear. I I mean a proportional system would change the way we elect. Congress wouldn't change the way we like the president would it No not immediately I. The president is still going to be of of one party but I think the president would have to get a majority in Congress and that would require more work. in a multi-party system. But it also would mean that if the other coalition was wasn't power in Congress the president wouldn't Defaced automatic gridlock that there'd be more bargaining and perhaps more coalition cabinets even And I think it would mean that Congress would be much stronger as an institution Shen because Congress In the in this two party system congress is either of the same party as the president in which case they just defer power entirely to the president or Congress of the opposite party of the president. In which case it's all gridlock and opposition which actually winds up just forcing the president to do stuff by executive action. So I think we'd have a system that is more like the system we had from been sixty s to the late eighties in which presidents built majorities in Congress. Congress was a strong institution committee base and we had a lot of landmark legislation during that period. Passed with broad bipartisan majorities. He's and and I would argue that because we had something more like a four party system during that period with liberal Republicans and conservative Democrats Alongside Liberal Democrats. Let's and conservative Republicans. And that's what I'm trying argue that we should have again. It's just that we can't get to it within our existing testing system of single winner first-past-the-post elections i. I WanNa talk a little bit about the comparison to Europe And and I should say that I would be delighted to have a multi-party system but it it seems to me that if you look at the very different electoral systems of western Europe right right now. They are in ways. That are sort of specific to Europe reproducing. A lot of the same political polarization that we have in the United States just Great Britain for instance has effectively a three party system with new parties popping up on the edges and it has just endured kind wrenching constitutional crisis and a period of total gridlock. It seems to me that reflects these sort of deep similarities between Western in countries where they're all increasingly polarized between kind of metropolitan liberalism. And a sort of blue collar hinterland conservatism. That feels left behind by globalization in various ways and that manifest itself differently in different places but in each country. It's the reason for for the rise of populism is the reason for polarization and so on and I guess my main skepticism about your proposal is it just seems to me quite likely that part of our polarization really reflects real polarization and not just a sort of something that's imposed by the particular accuser system. That we happen to have. Yeah I think that's It's fair to say that Western democracies are experiencing a lot of the same Issues and a lot of it stems from the urban rural polarization Now I think the the question then becomes what what political system is most likely to reach a resolution on these conflicts and the UK has the same first-past-the-post voting system. So it's basically basically a two party system with a with a few smaller parties that are spoilers and and and it it empowers minority rule the Conservatives won the last election with like forty three percent of the vote and yet they get total power. And it's reproducing the same binary conflict in the US. Now we go to continental Europe with with multiparty systems. And what you see. Our new parties emerging in France macron has a new party Injure may the Greens are rising and so the systems are are are fluid and new coalitions are emerging and politics is more multidimensional. I mean I think that the multiparty systems of western Europe I think have a better chance of realigning and letting old party's fall away. New parties emerging new coalitions emerge. I think there may be true to that. On the other hand I would just say you could also make the case that in fact what's been interesting is how permeable America's two parties have been to some extent to insurgencies that reflect reflect shifting realities right. I mean no one expected Donald Trump to win the Republican nomination but he won and change the party in certain ways that actually made needed a little bit more electorally viable in certain states. And right now Bernie. Sanders has a good chance to win the Democratic nomination for President and clearly the Democratic Party has moved to the left insubstantial ways now that increases polarization in certain respects. But it does. It does seem to suggest that the two parties these aren't just locked into you know exactly where Barack Obama and Mitt Romney were in two thousand twelve right. The issue landscape changes the voters. They're appealing to changes. There has has been in spite of polarization. A lot of sort of turmoil and change in who the parties are winning over the last five years. That's true although I think I think Michelle made it important Horton point earlier when Michelle when you pointed out that this may be actually much more geared toward congress than it is towards fixing the problems with the presidency and it seems to me this does really have the opportunity to reduce some of the Mitch McConnell. ISM that we've seen over the last ten to twelve years in which McConnell basically decided I mean he said it Trying to defeat Obama is our number one goal and in a two party system there is a little bit of zero heroes some aspect that that I worry creates an arms race and if you moved to a multi-party system It doesn't guarantee that we solve our problems. Because some of Monreale as as we're all pointing out but I can a little bit more easily. Imagine changing coalitions forming right whether it's on economics next to them might be one coalition and on social and cultural issues. It's on another one whereas right now we have this system in which particularly the Republican Party has just decided well when Democrats were in power. We we just WanNa make things as terrible as possible so they can look bad and we can take back power. The corollary to that is that by giving representation to kind of political minorities please in different parts of the country whether it be you know. Republicans in Manhattan or Democrats in Non Urban Mississippi. You would create more of a middle that you would potentially create more of a middle ground here. I think that's exactly right. And that's what we used to have. We used to have Mississippi Democrats in Vermont. Republicans and they played key hinge roles in building different coalitions. And that's what we've lost as our. Our party system flattened out into a genuine two party the system. I just WANNA I just WanNa say I'm I also. I'm just much more confident that this could have positive results at the state than I am nationally nationally to the extent that the real story of American politics over the last thirty years have a congress that doesn't want to legislate that wants to abdicate to the president accident. I think a world where you had five parties in Congress and we're passing any bill required not just sort of negotiations between two parties but negotiations nations between four. I think it's just very easy to see that as a world where Congress atrophies even more and everyone just pours more energy into the great polarized is battle over the presidency. Let's end on something concrete. which is for any of our listeners who've won over in making this case what should they a root for or even do to make this dream come closer to reality? Well I think they should start working at the state level and Get involved in advocating for electoral reform at the state level. where I think it's much more likely to happen? I think we should start at the state level And now I think also they should probably by my book and read it well. The book is called breaking the two party doom loop by Lee Druckman Lee. Thank you for joining us. We also want to hear from you to convince you about the need for parties. Any did did what would be your chosen third party. Give us a call at three four seven nine one five four three two four so we can consider playing a new on the show. Now it's time for our weekly recommendation when we make a suggestion meant to take your mind off of the news of the day. Ross this week is your turn. What do you have for us? So I'm going to have to tell kind of a shaggy dog story or in this case. Shaggy Hamster Story to get to my recommendation. Corp that's okay but we've had a break you know we've all been home for Christmas. I was with my family and Someone my wife convinced me that we should get our kids a hamster for Christmas so we got them a lovely a lovely hamster that they were fond kind of an embraced and loved for three days and then the hamster managed to escape from the cage. That I had bought for it and vanished into the house or maybe into wilder world of new haven never to be seen again so that was phase one of the drama. Then we had to get another hamster of course as one does when you lose your first hamster webster and we went to a different pet store this time not the sleek corporate chain but the sort of slightly funkier local option and they had only only one hamster there and it was female and we bought the female and brought her home and the next morning my daughter went up to feed her and came down yelling that she had just had had babies and she had in fact just had babies and the backstory it turns out that the sleek corporate hamster restores separate their male and female hamsters but the funkier mom and pop pet stores do not and they pursue the pro pro family policy right so we now have a hamster and her babies and we are sitting waiting to see if she will do what hamsters often do in times of stress and devour them thus traumatizing. My children forever. Shouldn't you separate them. You can't separate them in the first two weeks because they'll just die and if we if we if if we touch them she will eat so we have to stay away from her we. We can't even change your betting for two weeks. We just have to put food in so either she will traumatize my children by eating them or I will be the proud owner of a booming hamster population So anyway my recommendation is I. Guess mostly I just wanted to tell that story story but if you acquire a hamster for your children you should make sure to ask the pet store if they have separated males and females. And if they haven't you should decide just just how pro family you really are. Have you named the babies yet. No just a suggestion. You could name them David and Michelle. I will take that under advisement excellent Ross. What's your recommendation? My recommendation is make sure. Your hamster isn't pregnant. Thank you all that is our show so for this week. Thank you so much for listening. If you have ideas or thoughts leave us a voicemail at three four seven nine one five four three two four you can also email in Los an argument at NY TIMES DOT Com. And if you like what you hear fleas leave us a rating on review in Apple podcasts. This week show was produced by Mattie Foley for Transmitter Media and edited by Sarah Knicks. Our executive producer is we help from Tyson Evans. phoebe let Ian in percents Philbrick and Francis seeing. Thanks again the lead Druckman for joining us if you want to check out his podcast. It's called politics in question. Our theme As always was composed by Allison Leyton Brown. We'll see you back here next week. Are you sure that the original hamster isn't in your house somewhere aware Michelle I of course. I'm not sure the anything anything. That original hamster could be nesting in our chimney mating with squirrels producing using some sort of genetically enhanced super race of rodents. That will drive us out of our own home in six months at the at this point if you told me anything about what hamsters are going to do next I would believe it.

Iran Donald Trump US America Iraq Barack Obama Ross Michelle Congress Syria Sulamani president Ross Lee Druckman Lee Republican party David Leonhardt Middle East Bernie Sanders trump Michelle Goldberg
#176 - Two Cheers for the Two Party System?

Intelligence Squared U.S. Debates

51:38 min | 1 year ago

#176 - Two Cheers for the Two Party System?

"This is intelligence squared. Us The nation's leading nonpartisan debate series where the world's most influential minds debate the most important questions of our time. And you decide who the day progressive populism unifies and brings us all together. The Republican Party is institutionally demographically stronger than it's been in decades but if religion and belief in God it's such a great force driving moral progress. Hachem it fails so abysmally. Science is very good but it's hot equation. You need both the. Us does need to challenge. China's unfair trade practices. Rob Eliza is not a blessed. It's unstable it's equal. It's undemocratic and unsustainable ecologically are winning the battle against famine war pestilence and even death that is thanks to capitalism. Our debate will go in three rounds and then our audience will choose the winner as always if all goes well. Civil discourse will also win everybody. I'm John Donvan host and moderator of intelligence squared. Us debates our politics our elections and even the running of our government are all shaped by our two party system. Which has its critics who say that. The system makes compromise just impossible especially nowadays but others say that the two party system has its virtues it provides stability and protects from extremes on both sides. Well as election season heats up. We are asking. This question is the two party system good for democracy by the way. How did American politics get started on this party road? Well before the debate. I sat down to talk about that with Joanne Freeman. Who is a professor at Yale University? She is also co host of the history podcast. Backstory joins research over. The years has focused extensively on early American politics and in fact some of her work ended up in the Broadway Musical Hamilton. And she only found that out when she went to see the musical for the first time and I was in the audience. And there's a dueling song in the musical and I was very happy on the audience. There's a dueling song then. It became a rules of dueling song and I was really happy. The rules of dueling song and lyric came out. That was from my book and I was with a friend and I said that's my document so in the audience. I just then I met Lin Manuel Miranda and indeed. He had read my book. He first up immediately. What was the lyric? It's about the doctor turning his back so he has deniability and it was borrowed. The fact of it was from a document I found on the bottom of a box at the New York historical society. Okay so you said that your your approach to history reveals really interesting fun stuff. I mean you you get to a very granular level of interactions. Between members of Congress radically violent stuff has been happening on the floor of Congress. Everyone knows probably the most famous incident. And that's the caning of abolitionist. Senator Charles Sumner on the floor of the Senate to within inches of his life. Oh yeah out of commission for two years I think afterwards so it was. He gave a really rousing anti-slavery speech in which he insulted in some ways the South and South Carolina and some particular senators and a kinsman of one of those assaulted senators decided that he needed to redeem the name of his family and his State in the south so he waited until the Senate became mostly. Empty Sumner was at his desk. They weren't in session. He was actually franken copies of his speech to send out. And it's other fellow from South Carolina Preston Brooks walked in and nnounced that he was redeeming the name of the South and his family and just began to violently came him and the desks were bolted to the floor. So someone had a very hard time getting up. And he ultimately wrenched the desk out of the floor in his attempt to get away from Preston Brooks and did it have that impact. Did it actually affects policy and legislation. Yeah Oh no for sure it did. I mean there are threatened violence on all of Congress among representatives the threat of violence and a lot to do with the lack of progress. Yeah they were armed right so they had knives. They had pistols. There's a big fight in eighteen fifty-eight in which a northerner says something opposed to slavery Senator says don't you say that here in the northerner says he's a feisty one says something like I can say anything I want. It's a Free House and I'm not gonNA listen to any damn slave older. Thank you very much needed. The sound effect the new so this southerner walked up to him to throw a punch and this other congressman beat him to it and slugged him and the southerner fell flat. And at this point all the southerners in the House began rushing. They all engaged in a huge brawl in the space. In front of the Speaker's platform in the House of Representatives throwing spitoons punching each other and it ended when one congressman grabbed. Someone's hair to throw punch and his toupee came off which shows you that. Slapstick is eternal because then everyone started laughing and it stopped. George Washington did not have a political party and when he left office he said by the way. Let's not have political parties? It's a terrible idea. Was that a common thought. Among the founding fathers Yeah I mean part of the background here is it was so difficult to pull these states which were kind of almost nation states when they were colonies so hard to pull them together so they assume there'd be factions. They ASSUME THEY'RE BI partisan fighting but they did not assume that there was going to be organized parts of any kind and did they fear that yes as a matter of fact he did. They assumed that an organized party is a group of people who are out to promote themselves. And no one else. No but but that that was their assumption. So how did we get political parties? Well the first real parties like Organiz with banners and everything else. That's Andrew Jackson. So you get early on. Federalists and Republicans Hamilton in Washington Jefferson and Madison. Banging at each other. But no one's really happy but calling themselves a party. There's like a team dynamic which didn't exist without parties. There's something for the people who are in it and then strategically pragmatically. It's really useful for getting things done and getting a message out Jackson's pretty was the Democratic Party. I mean our current Democratic Party ultimately. That's that's lineage. People love to draw the straight line back. There are no straight lines in American politics. No can you remind us? All the name of your. Most recent book is called the field of blood violence and Congress and the road to civil war and you found that phrase field of blood in near research. The phrase comes from a letter written Charles. Sumner this friend of sumners after the caning says essentially I knew that something would happen on that field of blood the floor of Congress so that was kind of Hosanna for historian. Like oh my gosh. Not only is the violence not surprising. He expected it joined Freeman. I want to thank you so much for having me one thing we can all agree upon. We are all deeply satisfied right now with our political system is working wage right. There is all that polarization and those problematic primaries and then those two parties. They're not disappointing. Anybody but two parties. It's always been that way in the. Us We have politics built around two parties so much so that it's in our national DNA and is that a good thing or is it a big part of what's not going so well right now. Well we think in all of these questions. We have the makings of a debate. So let's have it. Yes or no to this statement to cheers for two parties. I'm John Donvan. I stand between two teams of two who are experts in this topic. Who thought about this deeply and who will argue for and against that resolution two cheers for two parties as always our debate will go in three rounds and then our live audience here at the dolby. Cinema in San Francisco will vote to choose the winner and if all goes well. Civil discourse will also win. Let's meet our debaters. I starting with Yasha monk. Aisha you are an associate professor. Johns Hopkins University. You're author of a book called the people vs Democracy why our freedom is endanger and how to save it you have debated with us a bunch of times one of our more frequent debaters and that's because we think you're so excellent. Abbott. It's great to have you back. Thank you thank you and your partner Norm Ornstein nor we have been trying to get you for years on our debate stage. We are delighted. You're a resident scholar at the American Enterprise. Institute you're contributing editor at the Atlantic and chairman of the campaign legal center norm. Thanks so much for being a lot of delight join our team arguing for the resolution. Two cheers for two parties. And WE HAVE TO DEBATERS ARGUING AGAINST. I please welcome lead Druckman highly. Welcome to intelligence. Squared your senior fellow at New America. Your Co host of the politics in question podcast. You're author of the new book breaking the two party doom loop the case for Multiparty Democracy in America. What a thrill to be here. John's great to have you and let's meet your teammate. Please welcome Kathryn Gal. Ears founder of innovations that is a national nonpartisan political innovation group. You are also the CO author of the forthcoming book. The politics industry. How political innovation can break partisan gridlock and save our democracy again. Sounds like interesting ideas in great to have your Catherine and those are our four debaters round one will be opening. Statements by each debater intern. I four the resolution. Two cheers for two parties resident scholar. American Enterprise Institute ladies by normal instinct. I think we all agree that we are in dangerous difficult even perilous times but the problem is not that we are in two party time. We don't have to parties right now. The Republican Party has become an insurgent. Outlier it's more of a cult than party and frankly the biggest and most urgent thing we have to do in this country is to turn it back to being a problem solving and norm abiding party. We also think our problems are more cultural than they are structural. There's no question that we have polarized but the bigger problem is that we have become tribalize in the society. We no longer view those on the other side as worthy adversaries but as enemies trying to destroy our way of life and people vote now more on the basis of their antipathy towards the enemy the structures and the rules have been distorted by figures like Donald Trump bill bar and Mitch McConnell who've demolished the norms and to use the phrase of Daniel Patrick Moynihan they have driven and defined deviancy down Lee Druckman. His terrific book wrote about the Golden Age in American life the period from roughly the nineteen thirties through the nineteen seventies when we had as he puts it in effect A FOUR-PARTY SYSTEM NOT A two party system. Democrats had roughly equal numbers of southern conservatives and northern Liberals Republicans had northeastern and West Coast moderates joined with a lot of conservatives and they did form. Frequent BIPARTISAN COALITIONS. But at the same time as the acknowledges they gave us. Jim Crow and segregation because a minority was able to have effectively a veto power. Much like what we've seen. In the Israeli system where ultra religious parties have been able to dominate policies that discomfort the vast majority of Israelis. Now we agree with our opponents on the need for major structural reform ranked choice voting for Congress and for the presidency either eliminating or vastly changing the electoral college and enlargement in the House and changes in the money system in our politics but we believe they have to be made within the structure of an existing system. That's built around having two major parties if you go back and look at what the framers set in place. They didn't want a parliamentary system. Congress from the Latin word meaning to come together not the French word parlay question. Time would debate and deliberate and organically reach a judgment that would get basically the legitimacy of the public. Now it's not that our opponents want to up end our system and give us a parliamentary system. But they WANNA hybrid a system where we keep much of the structure but bring in proportional representation so that other parties could not just join in but actually have skin in the game be a part of the governing process including as Lee has written extremist parties multi-party system and the Republican Party formed a coalition with a White Supremacist Party which meant that they would get a series of cabinet seats and probably some ability to have control over policies that they cared about those don't fit what we want. We have more urgent needs with an existential threat to our political system. That's what we need to focus on. Thank you for more opening statements. Continue right after this on intelligence squared. Us I'm John Donvan and this is intelligence squared. Us before the break we heard norm. Ornstein make his opening statement in supportive. Vira solution by referencing book called breaking the two party doom loop the case for Multiparty Democracy in America. Well that book was written by Lee Druckman. Who now makes his opening statement against the resolution to choose for two parties? Like a lot of you. I'm very worried about American democracy. Here's our basic problem. And I think Norman. I agree on this. Our democracy is set up to require broad compromise. We have two parties that are roughly equally balanced. Both trying to win an elusive narrow majority constantly describing the other side of the enemy. As un-american storm has pointed out it destroys the shared legitimacy the shared sense of fairness on which democracy depends. We are in this hyper partisan doom loop in which both parties fear. What would happen if the other party gets into power because the two parties represent very different visions of America? We have one party. The Democrats organized around Urban America Cosmopolitan multi racial and we have one party the Republicans based around rural America traditionalist white and those two parties. Frankly it's driving us. All crazy doesn't work with our institutions which are not set up to be narrow majoritarian and it doesn't work with our brains which are easily tripped into black and white US versus them binary thinking it used to be that the parties had tremendous overlap and it wasn't clear what the Democrats or Republicans stood for but now choices incredibly high stakes. I don't see how the Democrats get enough of majority to actually force the Republicans to moderate and even if Democrats do move towards that. I don't think the Republican Party would moderate. I think the Republican Party were turned violent because we know what happens when parties feel like they have no legitimate path to power they turned to other non-political means all Western democracies are facing challenging winds of globalization increasing conflict over national identity urban versus rural global local. If you vote for the resolution and say we should keep to parties. You're voting to take a tremendous risk. Even though we know what the two party system is doing to our brains and how it just doesn't work with our political institution you're hoping for Miracle A multi-party system. It would take some some big reforms to get there but I think it would allow us to break. That zero-some hyper partisanship. That is really destroying our democracy. We know how democracies die they die when hyper partisanship takes over and short term gains overwhelmed long-term stability and that's what we see happening in. Washington right now. I'm worried about what will happen in November. I'm worried about the legitimacy of the results and I think we are in very dangerous territory so I urge you all for. The health of our democracy voted against the motion and vote for a brighter future with more parties and more paths to a functioning healthy democracy. Thank you thank you lead reminder of what's going on we're halfway through the opening round of this intelligence squared US debate. I'm John Donvan. We have four debaters. Two teams of two arguing over this resolution. Two cheers for two parties. You've heard the first two opening statements now onto the third debating in support of the motion to cheer for two parties. Please welcome Yasha monk author of the people vs Democracy Ladies and Gentleman Yasha month. It's very important to be exact about what we're waiting today. What our site wants to convince you office to give two cheers to the two party system. Not Not one. But not free cheers. I've the only way to actually break the two party system is to change how we vote fundamentally so that you don't have a congressman in your district. You have political parties that really control. How political system works so you vote not for particular candidate but for political party and that political party then gets seats in Congress in rough proportion to how many people voted for party. That's called a system of proportional representation ended nearly always produces a multi-party system. Now when you look at systems of proportional representation around the world you'd find but unfortunately they don't work any better but now a two party system but we don't just have donald trump here in the United States. We Have Victoria Bannon hungry. We have Kosinski ponant. We have recipe added one and Turkey. What do these countries have in common? They have systems of proportional representation. Proportional representation will not save us from the rise of four Taryn populism think Israel think Italy Italy has had its political system for seventy five years since the end of World War. Two do you know how many government that has had sixty one sixty one government in seventy five yes because it is very very difficult to broker a stable government when you have lots and lots of political parties lots of backroom dealings lots of local tate's who controlled a little share vote and can enter all kinds of corrupt deals but if chaos is a famous and persistent problem of systems of proportional representation too much to G- nation instability is a one so those have very little control over what goes on. Now what would that look like in the United States? We have lots of parties. Well what part is do we have. We have on the right. A few critic party with ten to fifteen percent of the vote. We have a white supremacist party. With ten to fifteen percent of the vote then we have a bunch of more reasonable parties. We have a kind of Libertarian Party. A kind of Country Club party kind of center left Party and then we have on the left. Socialist Party led by Bernie Sanders a deeply identity. Aryan party perhaps a number of them one for Latinos African Americans and so on and so forth Lee rightly points out that the United States is much more diverse whenever countries but that precisely means that in a system of proportional representation we would have even more parties even more entrenched interests and Americans are not used to this two coalitions being brokered in back rooms between politicians two weeks after the election. We tell the WHO's going to be in government. Americans would rebel against that kind of political system. So I'm not going to give free cheers to two party system. It has deep problems. I mean states as deep problems today but I'm not even going to give two cheers to proportion representation because it deserves the best one among the resolution again. Two cheers for two parties and here to make her statement against the resolutions police. Welcome Kathryn Gal. Founder of Ben annotations Catherine Gal. Raise your hands if you drink beer or wine Yes very fun group. Okay now keep your hands up if you are in general quite satisfied with the choices that you have in the beer and wine marketplace okay. Everybody's hands are still up. Keep your hands up if you vote engaged people. Everybody's hand is up and keep your hands up if you are quite satisfied with the choices that you have in the political marketplace see a lone dissenter out there but otherwise there was hands all went down which begs the question. Why in America do we have six thousand breweries and three thousand wineries and yet when it comes to politics we get to choose between what David Brooks describes as Soviet refrigerator a or Soviet refrigerator be in the politics industry. We don't have healthy competition. We don't have innovation and we don't have accountability. There's zero accountability because the customer. The voter US only has two choices so the only thing that either the Democrats or the Republicans need to do to win is to convince the average voter to choose them as the lesser of two evils. Or because at least they say they're for what that voter believes but in this two party system. What neither side has to do is deliver results because no matter how disappointed you. Are you still likely prefer what your side says? Therefore than the one other choice says therefore in any other industry this large this driving with this much customer dissatisfaction and only two players some entrepreneur would see it as a phenomenal business opportunity and create a new competitor to respond to what the customers wanted. But that doesn't happen in politics because it turns out that the Democrats and the Republicans were fairly well together in one particular way to rig the rules of the game to protect themselves. Jointly from new competition said another way. Politics isn't broken. It's fixed a quick example. The duopolies created fundraising rules that allow any of us to donate eight hundred fifty five thousand dollars every year to Democrats Republicans are both but if you want to support independent candidate challenging the duopoly you're limited to five thousand four hundred dollars. Every two years we can change the system by changing how we vote. It brings me even in these difficult times. An enormous degree of optimism. And it all starts with recognizing that the two party system is broken. So let's get rid of it and we can start tonight. Please vote no on the motion and yes to a democracy that works for us. A good girl includes round one of this intelligence squared. Us debate where our resolution is to cheers for two parties. Now we move onto round two and round two is where the debaters address one another directly. They also take questions for me and for new members of our live audience. The team arguing for the resolution norm Ornstein and Yasha monk. They say that. The alternative of proportional representation would have enormous problems system that's larger than two parties would result in giving disproportionate power to potentially unsavory political movements such as white supremacy from the team arguing against the resolution catherine gale and lead Trautmann. They are arguing. The two party system in fact turns politics in two zero sum game but they also believe that a multi-party system is possible. And they believe that it would be a more accurate representation of America's political diversity so the core disagreement is on the nature of the solution. So I want to dig into that but I want to start by going to you norm and just taking on a Catherine's point that the that the parties as they are now are effectively. Duopoly cooperating to prevent a diversity of ideas and voices almost anti-american. What do you think that as Catherine was talking about wine and Beer I was thinking? What if the wine industry governed US and governed itself and actually had to form a legislature? What would happen likely is that the French would join with the Americans to block the Italians from selling their wine and we would have fewer choices having ranked choice voting enabling parties to be out there and competing but still ending up where you're making decisions. Which more than likely leave us with two parties but with a different kind of competition would work for me if we have a president and a separate Congress and we have multiple parties. We're going to have to make massive changes to make sure that a presidential election would actually result in somebody with a majority winning now. We have a real problem now with the Electoral College but doing that and then having multiple parties in Congress forming coalitions having a president find the ability to actually work out a coalition the woodwork. I think would be more difficult. And as Yasha said what? You're more likely to get our corrupt bargains and bringing extremists into the system doesn't mean that they're going to be in the tent and content with working within the system they're gonNA make demands would make governing more difficult leaked respond Yeah so the question is whether presidentialism can work with multi-party system now what we have now are two possible. Congress's one in which the opposing party to the president is in Congress and then we have gridlock and opposition and everything was being done in the executive branch the other option the government which is unified in which case we have no separation of powers. We have a party that just lets the president what he or she wants in a multi-party Congress with President. You would have certainly. You'd have to build coalitions but it would mean that. There was neither permanent gridlock nor a blank check. It might be that we'd have congress that actually might have voted to impeach trump because not all of them depended on being aligned with trump to get reelected. Yasha have examples of that not in America. You have these really weird hybrid political systems where you have a president who is popularly elected. And then you have a congress which is like seven different political parties none of which are necessarily related to the president and what you get is chaos because the president can never agree with Congress of the parliament. You can never pass any laws you get these strong men who are coming in and say none of this is working we always have Ranko. We can never actually pass any laws. What you need to do is to give all of the power to me. So I can sideline Congress and do what I want. We need to essentially find a majority in one way or another. That is the big this analogy to his lovely example of a beer and wine industry. You can have one beer. You can have an expert. You can have a different wine. We don't have to agree. In order to pass those you have to broker majorities. So where do you want to do that? By giving people a choice between two parties and seeing which of them is more popular and more genuine popular all by giving seven parties a little bit of political power sending them off into dark rooms and having them make deals with each other. But we have no control over so catherine your beer wine test was used against you. How wrong quite understand. We need to think about this differently. The point of beer and wine example is to understand the value of competition that it forces innovation. The problem with our current system is not just that we have two parties but that they are guaranteed to continue to remain the only two parties we have when ninety percent of people are not phenomenally satisfied. So what we want to put into. The industry is the threat of new competition that pushes competitors in any industry to innovate and to respond to solve problems. And that's what we need to change in our political system and it doesn't take proportional representation to do that. I WANNA to go to audience questions in just a moment. Your opponents have made the point that the choices presented by the two parties represent choices that many many Americans wouldn't make if they had other choices that the parties are at. This point are so extremely polarized. That they don't really represent the American public diversity. What's your response to that? This is going to take a long time. What we need to do is focus on how we can bring back a legitimate two party system. We need to look at ways in which we can have a Republican Party. That's the party again. And for a long time we did have parties. Actually there were instances with United Government when the congressional leaders did real oversight and put some checks on corruption or on maladministration or on bad governance. That we don't have now. We need to work at it if we could snap our fingers and bring about the kinds of structural changes that lead at least once. It's not gonNA fit within our culture all these other countries that have these kinds of systems are going through the same kind of threat from right wing. Populism dangers of immigration that are bringing out racial divisions that we have had for a long time that having existed before and to think that by causing our culture to go through an enormous upheaval to bring in a bunch of other parties many of which would be as Yasha laid out. Really extreme parties would not work. Let me take that particular criticism to to your opponents Leo or Catherine. The argument here being made that the door would be open to quite unsavory political players right so we have to structural problems. One is we have primaries party primaries and they push elected representatives to the right and to the left and then they can't come together in Washington. Dc solve any problems because they are going to get prime married how we change this now. Is We get rid of partisan primary race and instead we have a single open everybody runs on the same ballot and the top five vote getters advanced to the general election. So now you don't automatically lose your primary in our system just by voting. Yes on bipartisan compromise legislation than the second thing we do is we institute ranked choice voting in the general election so we will elect someone with the greatest appeal to the most number of voters but most important getting rid of the way. We currently vote plurality voting first-past-the-post voting and substituting ranked choice. Voting is what lowers the buried entry for new competition. And now you won't splinter these votes and let the extremists in but everybody's views represented and we still now elect someone who's responsive to the entire district. Is the two party system good for democracy? We'll hear questions from the audience. In just a moment I'm John Van and this is intelligence squared. Us This is intelligence squared us her few minutes ago. Yasha monk described extremism in countries that have proportional representation. Here's Druckman to respond. So yasha paints a very dark picture of proportional representation systems. That are not doing so well. I'm not he says it's pretty much. All of them isn't well. He doesn't talk about Ireland he doesn't talk about New Zealand. Denmark Sweden Netherlands mud a lot of countries that are not being overrun by populous. Those parties do exist but government. Coalitions don't include those parties now. There is some extremism. There's always gonNA be some extremism in society. We have a strange party system in which Donald trump ran as a republican. Got About thirty percent of the vote in the primary about forty percent of the People Republicans so Donald Trump is about a twelve percent party. As many populist. Far-right populist parties. In Western Europe are by winning the plurality of a plurality donald trump becomes president takes over an entire Republican Party. And now we have one party that has norm has described has gone to a very extreme place. That is the danger of a two party system. A two party system is good at managing extremism if extremism is just five percent or ten percent but when it gets to be fifteen percent it can gain total power and that's a tremendous danger of a two party system. Sweden has a party by the name of Sweden Democrats and EV- OUDE NEO-NAZI PARTY. I'm not being hyperbolic. I mean shaved had Swastika Flag Neo Nazis that party. Today is the biggest party in Sweden. According to opinion polls the nice point of harmony and agreement the primary system in the United States is a problem it allows people with twenty five thirty percent of that within a primary to become. The party's nominee the people who participate are only about ten percent of the US population in order to fix that. You simply have to do some of the things. Catherine talked about which is for example open primaries to have a system of a single transferable vote which means that if my preferred candidate doesn't isn't among the top I can redistribute words to what's my second third candidate and avoid most extreme candidate winning if that's not actually what people want but that would still give you a two party system and if you can tell at least your first name appreciate my first name is Aina. Both sides have mentioned ranked choice voting as some kind of an improvement. We have ranked choice voting here in San Francisco and it has proven to be confusing. And I'm going to be kind and say that many of the results are dysfunctional. So would you please explain how you think that ranked choice voting going be any kind of improvement? Can we very brief and I have a feeling? You may have shared views. And I don't want to put. Who would like to take an companies want to take that first comeback? What we're proposing is ranked trace voting in general elections for Congress. And this is after a primary where you have five candidates advancing so that gets rid of this challenge that ranked choice voting is confusing. Because we're not running as they are in some of these municipal elections. Ten twelve candidates on the ballot. We've narrowed it down the right amount to have the diversity of ideas and candidates in the race that contributes the candidate who's elected to their ability to deliver results once they're in Washington DC because they're to the needs of the entire district. I don't spend time recommending ranked choice voting for municipal elections. It's going to be very effective for reducing the polarization and gridlock in Congress again given neither side is making ranked ordering the heart of your argument. Would like to think illustrates a key part of my argument. Which is that when I'm in the United States. People say our electoral system sucks. That's a different electoral system. And I go to any of the countries that have that electoral system. And what do people tell me that? Our electoral system sucks as having electric system. More like battery United States. The real point that you're making is it's easy to sit here and say let's get rid of a two party system will have an imaginary wonderful electoral system but solves all of our problems. Our problems are not due to US Pacific electoral system. That much deeper problems. And that's why it doesn't matter where you go here. Germany anywhere you have to talk to. My name is Jay. The last five elections have been wave elections where people are dissatisfied with both parties. And it seems to me that there is this impatient for change in Washington and yet our founding fathers created a government that was by design very deliberative and slow and a government of checks and balances. Is there anything that could possibly be done right away? Barring Revolution is there a way to quickly get away from Anti Party system? All right so I'm going to the side. That's arguing for. It's a question about the practicality the pragmatism of what you're arguing from unit if you WanNa take it and then Kevin conjoined you. Two thirds of Americans say we ought to have more than two parties so I think it would be widely supported. Congress could pass legislation capacity. Tomorrow States can start taking actions on their own. It's up to all of us to decide what we want. It's just understanding that the two party system is not working. It's breaking our democracy. It's driving us all crazy and frankly we ought to have more choices. We do have more than two parties. We have Libertarians Green Party and the Communist Party and the Socialist Party democratic socialist. When you're saying we have only two parties we have. We have only two effective parties because we have a winner. Take all plurality. First-past-the-post system that renders third parties as spoilers and pushes them to the fringes. Where they only attract fringes example of how this plays out in the real world so earlier this Spring Howard Schultz a former CEO starbucks who was widely admired as a business leader decided that he would consider running as an independent for president and the Democrats were living. Because they believed that Howard Schultz ran as an independent he would take votes away from the eventual Democratic nominee and inadvertently then help re elect Donald Trump and in our current system. That may well be true. We need to implement this system of ranked choice voting in general elections in order that competitors like Howard Schultz Jill Stein or Gary. Johnson can have electoral opportunities because even if they don't win. When you have healthy competition with more competition you get results quickly. Perot ran in ninety two. He was last a third party candidate. B. On a debate stage he only got nineteen percent of the vote. But what did we get balanced budgets out of the Clinton administration because neither the Republicans nor the Democrats wanted to cede that nineteen percent. All those people who voted for Perot's charts on the deficit to a nascent. Third-party norm going back to the going back to the question. How realistic is that? These changes could happen short of a revolution in a relatively short period of time. There are some things that could be done and there are things that don't require constitutional amendments Democratic president with a Senate say with fifty three Democrats. You could pass some version of what they call. Hr One that would give us some campaign finance reform. That could add multimember districts which is basically blocked by nineteen sixty seven law. You could expand the size of the house which was capped at four hundred thirty five because the racist in the south knew that if you expanded the numbers the way we done every ten years otherwise they would lose power and I would just add that. At the presidential level we now have this pernicious impact of the Jill Stein's who got a lot of support from Russia. Why because it was pulling votes away and distorting outcomes that can be done by laws and individual states. If you have wrench voting doesn't give you anything avenue. Two party system allows people to say. Hey I voice goes to Jill Stein. But obviously she's not gonNA get thirty or forty percent of the vote so it's going to get eliminated and redistributed to the Democratic candidate. What renshaw voting allows you to do is to have some expression of strong preferences if you have more extreme political views but we would still effectively have two parties. Sir I'm Andrew when you impose your free market rules. We don't have a multitude of search engines for example a social media companies. So what I fair? More than Multi Party system is a unique party system. What is to ensure against that? If you impose your market roles and create this way you have a winner-take-all system and single google style or facebook. Style winners is really interesting. What really matters is it. How many parties we have or is it. What whoever is elected gets done. What will get with this free market politics? I do sometimes call. It is competition that delivers. What the voters want. So if the voters don't want a unit party we won't have one and the voters don't want that because we're already talking about how much division there is here if you're going to have a political monopoly. That means you're going to have an authoritarian system which none of us is proposing here a lot of the things that we're talking about. We agree on. I would like to see more competition and some form of ranked choice voting but David Duke. Now is outside the political system if we have a number of parties and coalitions and the David Duke Party. Is there inside the tent? I don't think that's going to be a healthy process. I don't think that's going to lead to more competition leading to better outcomes. I think it can lead as we've seen so many other countries to more pernicious outcomes we just happen to believe that if you try and make radical transformation that adds a lot more parties. The unintended consequences the downsides that we've seen play out in so many other countries are gonNA lead us down a bad path. That concludes round two of this intelligence squared. Us debate where our resolution is to tears for two parties. Now we move onto round three round three will be closing statements arguing for the resolution. Two cheers for two parties. Here is normal instinct resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. We're not in a very good place in the United States right now but to imagine that if we somehow either could wave a magic wand or even make a series of fundamental structural changes in the way our political system operates and introduce a lot of additional parties. They're going to form coalitions inside. But it's going to mean as Yasha said a whole series of more extreme parties that would suddenly have a lot more leverage. I'd like to see those structural reforms but I also think that we need to focus on something else which is more fundamental which is the toxic culture that we have right now tribal media the degree to which a Fox News has had an impact on the structure of debate in the society on Climate Change. Basically pushing us in a direction where we can't even have a debate about it which is also by the way done more to bring us brexit and encourage the fires in Australia than anybody else. And that's spreading. We have coarsened our culture where anything is inbound now. Bullying in schools is way up because of the example that we see with the president we need to focus our attention finding a way to repair our culture and move this back to a situation where we can actually have some reason debate about the important things that matter and view this as a country of people together resolution again to tears for two parties here to make his closing statement against the resolution. Lebron author of breaking the two party doom loop. James Madison wrote a brilliant essay. Federalist number ten that lays out the thinking behind the structure of our political system. Madison encountered this problem. He said there are a lot of factions in society to extinguish them would be the death of liberty. How are we going to have a political system in which they can all work together? The framers were afraid of political parties. Because they thought there would only be to one party would be trying to get a majority and press. The Minority Party and the minority party would fear that the system was illegitimate. And we'd have the collapse of democracy. We'd have civil war. Had they anticipated that parties would be inevitable. I think they would have wanted a multiparty. Democracy because a multiparty democracy requires compromise negotiation coalition building and allows the coalition's to be fluid. So that no one side feels like the other side gets into power. Their side is going to be oppressed. And it's true that a more proportional system might allow some more extremist parties. But I think there is a danger in suppressing extremism until it builds up and it builds up and it takes over one of the two major parties and that I fear is the situation that we are in now. So for the health of the future of democracy let's break the two-party doom loop. Let's give people more choices and get a system in which people can actually feel enthusiastic about the options that they have rather than holding their nose voting for the lesser of two evils and fearing that if their side loses the fate of our country is at an end. Thank you resolution again. Two cheers for two parties. GonNa make closing statement and supported the resolution Josh among author of the People vs Democracy. It's very easy to say. Our political system is so broken. If only we had one over there and many go to the people who have a system over then base only we had a system of majoritarian first-past-the-post like behalf in the United States. The basic truth is electoral systems. Give you trade-offs Ivor. You have relatively limited choice as you do in United States. But you know who's going to form a government you vote for Democrats or if you vote for Republicans all you have a system of proportional representation. Will you vote for political party? You have more choice. You have a choice of beer. But he has no idea what government they're gonNa form giving them your vote and that's not an abstract question for me because I've been thinking about what's happened in Germany in the state of Oregon Germany's supposed to be one of the functional. Pi Systems but people who voted for perfectly decent moderate parties like angle Merkel's Christian Democrats found. They elected a no name politician. Prime Minister of the state with the support of your alternates for Germany support of most extreme. Afc politician who is famous for saying what Germans need to make one hundred eighty degree turn in the memory of World War. Two so yes. Our system has deep problems. I don't give it features. I give two cheers. But don't think that proportional representation is gonNA solve those problems. Thank you and our final speaker making her closing statement against the resolution catherine gale founder of Ben Innovations so in two thousand twelve. My daughter Alexander said to me Mommy. I think I'm a remedy Pratt. Or maybe a Republican. She knew intuitively that we needed more than two choices and she was only six. Why is this all such a mess when I'm growing up? Why does this have to happen to us now? And then sort of why you guys screwing it up my son who is now just to. By the time he was born. I really understood about these dangerous of two parties and I promised him and promised my daughter that I would spend the rest of my life. Working for these political changes a vote for the motion. Tonight is a vote for more of what we've been getting more of what we weren't satisfied with. It's a vote for more of the same for Alexandra Teddy and all of your children as well. It doesn't have to be like this. We can leave the doom loop of two-party politics behind the guaranteed positions of these two parties by these simple political innovations which we can enact on a state by state basis America was founded on the greatest political innovation of modern times once again that kind of political innovation is the key to our future. Say Yes to the Great American experiment and say no to the two party system and bring back the vibrancy of competitive democracy. Thank you val. And that concludes closing statements. I have the final results you have asked about twice the resolution. Two cheers for two parties. I want to remind you again. It's the difference between the first and the second vote that determines our winters. Here's how it played out on the first vote on the resolution. Two cheers for two parties. Thirty five percent of YOU AGREED. Twenty-seven percent of you're against the sentiment of this resolution and thirty eight percent were undecided. I results now look at the second results in the second result for the team. Who's arguing for the resolution again? Their first vote was thirty. Five percent their second vote was sixty five percent they pulled up thirty percentage points which is now the number to beat the team arguing against the resolution. They went from twenty seven percent to twenty eight percent. They pulled up. One percentage point which is not enough the team arguing for the resolution to cheer for two parties named our winters. Congratulations to them. Thank you for me John. Donvan and intelligence squared. Us We'll see you. Thanks for tuning into this episode of intelligence squared. Us The debate you just heard was recorded live at Dolby labs cinema in San Francisco with generous support from the W Family Clare. Connor is CEO of intelligence squared. Us Amy Craft is our chief of Staff Shale Mara is director of editorial Khanna. Kirkman is our creative and marketing. Strategist Jen's elmer. Is Our senior researcher. Rob Christiansen and Erin Dalton are the radio producers. Damon. Whitmore is our audio engineer. Robert Rosencrantz our chairman. And I'm your host John.

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The Two-Party Doom Loop - Lee Drutman

How Do We Fix It?

23:04 min | 1 year ago

The Two-Party Doom Loop - Lee Drutman

"So Richard You remember this famous movie scene. You're tearing me you. You say one thing. He said another everybody changes back again. That's James Dean. Isn't it the anguish teenage rebel. Without a cause exactly that will be came out in one thousand nine hundred fifty five one of the most famous movie lines of all time but in some ways I think a lot of voters can relate to that today. You're tearing me apart. We all feel like we're getting kind of torn apart by the political system right. Yeah and that's what we're going to talk about today breaking the two party doom loop with Lee dropping America's a large diverse pluralistic nation and to try to shoehorn a country this diverse and sprawling into just two parties to me is insanity doesn't represent the broad diversity and it creates an us against them zero sum mentality every political election. Our show is about fixes. Yeah how to make the world a better place. How do we fix it before we serve up another stimulating exciting interview? Jim just a recommendation that people follow us on twitter at fix it. Show that at sign. How you at fix it show? And and Give us some ideas of shows that you'd like to hear also follow us on facebook and we're on instagram. How do we fix it? One of the most intense examples examples of political polarization in many decades going on right now as we record this. which is the third impeachment trial of of an American president in our history but our guest today says that this kind of historic schism in our political system is an all bad? There's a light at the end of the tunnel Lee. Lead Druckman is a senior fellow at the new America. Think tank and also the CO host of a podcast called politics in question. His new book is breaking breaking the two party doom loop the case for multi-party democracy in America. Welcome to our table here. How do we fix it? Great let's let's start fixing okay save. The health of democracy is facing new risks and many blame this on president trump and and especially his rhetoric. But did you say trump is a symptom of something bigger. What is that something bigger? That's something bigger is the hyper partisanship that is really destroying our democracy. And it's a hyper partisanship that flows from something that is actually quite new. In our political history which is having to who truly distinct non overlapping political parties both competing for a narrow but elusive majority and both representing very different geographies. He's very different cultural values in fighting a fight over American national identity and it doesn't work with our political institutions which are designed to to require a broad compromise and it doesn't work with our human minds which are far too prone to us versus them thinking and it's driving us all crazy. So is that what you mean by a doom loop. Well what I mean by a doom loop is that once were in this. It's very hard to get out of it. And as the sides seem further apart as the stakes get higher compromise becomes harder. People are more likely to see the other party not as a political opponent but as a political enemy and increasingly retreat into their own separate realities. I mean democracy is hard but it's a lot harder when you don't have a shared sense of fairness and a shared sense of reality and and a shared sense of what is truth. A phrase in your book which jumped out at us is that a fully divided two party system without any overlap is probably unworkable in any democracy. Is that what we have now. That is what we have but Mandy Manny measure and that's very different from the past right. That's correct for a long time. The criticism of the American two party system was not that the parties were too far apart is that they were two. Overlapping and to incoherent voters didn't know what the difference between Democrats and Republicans was and it created a muddle but turned out that that muddle was actually what made our political system work well enough because it created space for broad compromise. We had something more like a multi-party democracy within that two party system system with liberal Republicans and conservative Democrats alongside Democrats and conservative Republicans in those overlaps allowed for the system to function. But now we have truly truly divided truly nationalized two party system and this is this is something new and this is something I think quite dangerous. Can't we just get back to that old system have you. You invented a time machine. So how did it happen. I mean the complete lack of overlap. The Ven Diagram between the two parties. They've moved so far apart. Why well there are a lot of reasons but the short version is that American politics nationalized over many decades in politics went from being local to being national politics? Went from being about economic bargaining to being about broad. Abstract cultural moral issues and parties retreated to their geographic cores. Democratic Party is now totally. Based in urban cosmopolitan multicultural multiracial increasingly secular. Her America oriented much more towards the global knowledge. Economy in the Republican Party is based in rural exurban traditionalist white proustian increasingly male dominated dominated parts of the country and places that are that are quite left behind by the global knowledge economy and so the party's just retreated to their cores and as the party's as became more different the differences became more. Salient is one reason why this happened. Because of the rise of Talk Radio and cable TV that media became more and more nationalized we've seen for instance with the Internet the decline of local journalism in many markets as well. I see the media's an accelerator of underlying trends but I think there are deeper structural forces that the media you're just has has amplify rather than maybe accelerated a little bit both speaking of things that accelerate underlying trend's you have the trump election. You wrote The New York Times op ED. Last year. Where you said that trump's election may have been the shock we needed? What did you mean by that? Well I think there are a lot of folks who who woke up on November nine th twenty sixteen and realize that they'd gotten a wakeup call and wake up call was trumping elected and Americans reckons across. The country have started asking a lot of hard questions about the structure of our democracy in the wake of trump's election and a lot of Americans Americans have gotten engaged in politics for the first time in their lives or the first time in a really long time. So we've gotten the WAKEUP call and we've opened ourselves up to thinking. Maybe there are some things that need fixing in our political system that go beyond just the Democrats or the Republicans winning the next election for many decades now American politics have been completely dominated by Republicans or Democrats even going further back. It was a two party system. So make the case for a multi party system instead. What might that look like well? Multi party system is a system that requires compromise and bargaining and coalition building. And that's the system that works with the political institutions that we have which require are a lot of compromise and coalition building. It's a system that works with our institutions it would break the hyper partisan doom and it would just give Americans more and and better representation and proportional version would mean that your vote would matter wherever you live. You don't live in a swing state and Iowa in order to cast a potentially competitive vote and you say right now now because so many areas are either consistently rhetoric consistently blue. There's really only a handful of states where these races are are fought so most voters are effectively effectively denied political power under are winner. Take all single winner. System of of plurality voting and and no wonder turnout is quite low in the US because a lot of people's votes don't matter and parties understand that and they don't reach out to various me in proportional democracies voter turnout is consistently higher and and the reason is simple one. You're more likely to see a party that you like in your excited about to the parties recognized that your vote counts and they're trying to recruit you to vote and and three your vote counts more. So you're going to go to the trouble to vote. Let's take a minute. And just define what you mean by proportional democracy and how it works and a few other countries. Yes yeah so. The basic premise of a proportion democracy is that the share of votes that your party gets should be reflected in the sheriff seats. It has so if your party gets thirty percent of the vote it gets thirty percent of the seats so I think that people who live in the. US May not fully understand that in some other countries you you have won the equivalent of one congressional district but rather than having one winner in a winner. Take all kind of election. Do you have maybe two or three winners and that this encourages multiple parties to his parties are not spoilers and a proportional system third fourth fifth parties. Now they're all different kinds and some people when they hear multiparty democracy. They think Oh you wants to become Israel and Italy Italy or Italy Israel uses a form of hyper. Pr where there's a one nationwide electoral district and an pretty low threshold. Three point two to five percent so in other words any political party that gets more than three point two five percent or around that gets at least one seat in Garland that's that's right automatically so the way you limit the number of parties I think probably around four to six parties is probably the ideal because more than that. It's too much choice. Too much fracture less than that. You're not creating space for innovation and diversity and the way to get that is by having smaller district sizes and or higher thresholds so the system that I like is multi multi member districts with ranked choice voting combined. Five Congressional districts into one you to five representatives and then you'd select those candidates by rank choice voting. How does rank choice voting work? Because not only would you have multiple member congressional districts but you also have this ranked choice voting system. Yeah so it's a system. The the the Irish have used for almost one hundred years. They call it P. R. S. TV Australia has a catchy day. I call it multi winner ranked choice voting thing. So Rangers voting the growing number of cities have a main has it and the way it works is rather than having to just select one candidate. You can rank candidates in order of preference and then the tallies are taking for first choice preferences of fishing or candidate has a majority. That can't wins if not you go to a second round at operates. Great can instant run off. The bottom candidate is eliminated. Their votes are transferred to their voters. Back up a second choice candidates and then proceeds until somebody has a majority so so this means that automatically you wouldn't necessarily have all democrats and Republicans that maybe a Green Party or a libertarian. Party percents right now. It's looking looking at me. When you say libertarian wishy living and you would have space for more political parties to gain entrance into the congress now one objection to ranked choice? Voting is just it just sounds complicated. Well it's not complicated once you get used to into using it right there favorite movies or favorite books favorite flavors of ice cream. You get used to say oh well. I want to consider all the candidates and then I want to rank the candidates and candidates compete for voters second or third choice provinces so rather than just reaching out narrowly to to your slice of voters you actually want to reach out to more voters who might not picky verse my pick you second or third so in practice that builds a more coalition will compromise style of campaigning ultimately politics. Okay more coming up. It's how do we fix it. I'm Jim eggs and I'm Richard Davies. We're speaking with Lee Druckman author of breaking the two party doom loop the case for Multi Multi Party democracy in America. Richard I know. Do you have a recommendation for this week. This comes from German TV. It's a drama cold line of separation and also not only a drama but a history history lesson. It's a fictional story of one small farming town split into by the border between East and West Germany. It starts during during the closing weeks of World War Two it deals in a very direct in visceral and honest way about the pain and division and posed as families split split by this divide in their town as well as their country. And I'm struck by how the best TV dramas often have a lot more character And plot developments than to our movies because they go on for much longer and the best of them resemble more closely I think novels and Line of separation is clearly one of them. Okay back with Lee Druckman so you say that we should increase the size of the House of Representatives. Yeah I do believe that we should increase the size of the House of Representatives. How's IT represents began with sixty five members in seventeen eighty-nine and it increased as America more populous than they stopped increasing in one thousand nine eleven and we have if districts that are just incredibly large? The smaller the district is the more connected people will feel to their representatives. I mean I think having seven hundred members of Congress would via a reasonable proposal what about the criticism though of of multiple parties. Where you've got a situation like we mentioned with Israel or with Italy do multiparty democracy's necessarily work better than to party democracies on average? They do. I mean you could certainly pointed Some failures of of multi-party democracies but given the broad experience of multi-party democracy throughout Western Europe. which would argue would be the most comparable from all countries to the US? What you see is a political system in which people feel good about their political system they feel well represented and and you see coalition building compromise in relative stability? Certainly there are moments in which it's hard to form a coalition but eventually they do form a coalition and it compromises just built into the system. Because you have to build a compromise coalition in order to govern. You don't have one side trying to win some narrow majority and then used narrow power to push down the rest of the country and you don't have half of the country feeling like if they lose a narrow election then they're totally out of luck. Does that lead to higher turnout. Does there's much higher turnout in proportional multiparty democracy's you also point out that this system would yield a more diverse body of representatives both age gender race but also ideologically. Yeah I I do. Believe that. And America's a large diverse pluralistic nation nation and to try to shoehorn country. This diverse and sprawling into just two parties to me is insanity. It doesn't represent the broad diversity city and it creates an US against them zero so mentality to every political election and you feel that that our whole system democracies being threatened by I were we are now i. I do think that it is being threatened. Because for for democracy to function we need to agree on the basic rules of the game and we need to accept the fact that our side might lose sometimes and our perspective might lose sometimes and that the procedures for navigating who wins loses are fair to both sides. One of the things that we've come to realize in the last few years is something that we thought was always going to be with us and we could take for granted is actually actually something that requires active maintenance. And that is our system of democracy in your New York Times op Ed. They'll you struck a note of optimism and you pointed to some previous historical periods where there was also great division tension and conflict and old systems breaking down and we got through them and we we built in a better way. What are some of those previous eras? We have this long history in America of crisis and renewal and that's what makes me ultimately hopeful full that we will. We will get to another period of renewal and if you think about the history of American democracy you think about these waves. These bursts of Democracy Chrissy reform in which our system has become more democratic more inclusive more responsive and ultimately a healthier democracy the revolutionary war. You can think of the expansion engine. The Franchise in the eighteen thirties. Jacksonian democracy particularly the progressive era. I think really resonates a lot with today. And then the civil rights era in the nineteen nineteen sixties. Now if you're keeping score at home that's about every sixty years or so that we go through one of these bursts of democracy reform and if we add on another sixty years I from the nineteen sixties that takes us to the decade that we are now entering and all of these periods have have certain things in common in that before the reform happens. This feels like politics is stuck and it's not responsive and things are never going to change and then social movements build up younger generation gets energized. Politics takes takes on this kind of moral energy and then change happens because the people want it. Great Way to end Lee Druckman author of breaking the two Parties Zoom Lou. Thanks for joining us at. How do we fix it? Well it's great to do the fixing time with you all right. The I really like lease notion that somehow we need to bring bring back this mushy middle in our politics. It could be Joe Biden's campaign Slav. Could well be for my money. The by far the best and most exciting suggestion in this book is about ranked choice voting. I think really does have the opportunity to vastly improved political system. Even if we don't go as far as he wants which is having four or five political parties competing with each other you both you and I are skeptics. Antics of that I'm not sure that completely breaking up. A two party system will solve the problems that we're now being faced. Yeah and this is where I'm supposed to be the more conservative one on the show and Richard. You keep you keep letting me down by being alien either. This act waving left optus need you to be for the drama of well partially because I personally want to save the Democratic Party and I don't want the laugh to split apart in in in two very distinctive ways because I think that if you did have a system that encouraged multiparty democracy you'd have the AFC Progressives Bernie progressives the right and she just she just said AFC if she would be a different party from Joe Biden. I believe that's that's true. Yeah so there's a very clear line. I think that the Democrats are much more likely to split apart into two parties than the Republicans are but as the person who's supposedly the more conservative one. Here in our podcast part of conservatism. Is you break. You bought it mentality like before you start taking apart the car motor. Make sure you know how to put it back together again so I am cautious about going too far too quickly on this idea and there aren't a lot of there are a lot of technical issues. With ranked choice voting for example it requires a lot of engagement in terms of the electorate. Because you not only have to know which can you you want to know five or so candidates. How do you rank them? Maybe a lot of people are like well. I know my one two after that is just. I'm just throwing darts. Oh I don't assume that the American voters are are less intelligent than the time on there has been a demonstrate phenomena where people fill out the first two or three blocks and then they give up and so their votes wind up sometimes getting tossed out. Well I think maybe that's more of an argument against referenda than it is against ranked choice voting. Because if you had for instance one election where you went in you went well I kinda like this woman more than I like that that guy but I'd rather that that guy was elected than his more conservative opponent. Then there's a clear choice there. I don't think that's very difficult. Yeah I'd like us to go slow clearly. There are serious problems with what we're doing right now so I'm not saying that our systems perfect doesn't need to be rethought but I do want to take it one step at a time. I think where you and I do agree an actually more in favor of ranked choice voting than you are but I think where we do agree is is recognizing that independence are very large chunk of the American voting public and having a system which recognizes them as has significant players is something we should strive for. You know. I'm not in favor of identity politics but there are an awful lot of groups out there that feel. They're not being heard. And if there's a way way to pull them into our system better I think there's a lot to be said for that so I don't WanNa wind up like Israel where you get these little tiny splinter parties exercising wild outsized sized influence over policy because they form coalitions with artie gets the plurality of the votes. That worries me. But maybe there's middle-brow at the very least lead Drummond's ideas of provocative and given the state of our democracy right now. We certainly need to have a debate. And he's a thinker to watch really recommend the book walk because we need new ideas right. Now it's how do we fix it. I'm Richard Davies. I'm Jim and our producer is Miranda Schaefer where production of Davies content we make podcasts for companies nonprofits. CHECK US out.

America Lee Druckman US Democratic Party Jim eggs Israel Republican Party president Richard Richard Davies congress James Dean facebook Multi Multi Party The New York Times Green Party twitter trump House of Representatives trump
Howard Schultz, And Independents Vs. Centrists In America: They're Not The Same

On Point with Tom Ashbrook | Podcasts

48:25 min | 2 years ago

Howard Schultz, And Independents Vs. Centrists In America: They're Not The Same

"This message comes from on points sponsor, indeed, if you're hiring with indeed you can post a job in minutes, set up screener questions then zero in on your shortlist of qualified candidates using an online dashboard get started at indeed dot com slash NPR podcast. From WVU are Boston and NPR. I'm Meghna chucker birdie, and this is on point former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz is a very good businessman, and he could soon be a rather significant presidential candidate Schultz roiled the partisan and punditry classes last week when he announced that he's considering a presidential run as an independent, but who exactly what he swayed listen to how Scholz tangled with MSNBC contributor, Mike barnicle yesterday in the news of people. Register is independent and yet they still tilt one way or the other despite their registration is independent. They'll still till. Plus they've never had a choice. They have not really know who who's who's Ross Perot. No, no. I'm a legitimate person. Well for the record Ross Perot was a legitimate candidate. And in nineteen ninety two Perot not only made it to the debate stage as an independent he was on the ballot in all fifty states in the ended up taking almost nineteen percent of the popular vote that year the year. Bill Clinton won against a sitting president. But in that clip barnacle is pestering Schultz about something deeper about the myth of the truly independent voter that most of them are partisans in disguise. So if that's the case what impact coulda Scholtz run have in twenty twenty this hour on point reaction to Howard Schultz and the truth about independent voters, and you can join us do you identify as an independent voter. And what does it mean to you? What do you make of Howard Schultz as potential run for president? Join us anytime on radio dot org or on Twitter and Facebook at on point radio. So we're gonna talk about the political implications of Howard Schulz's consideration for a White House run here. But I want to dig into this idea of who are independent voters in America. So joining us I from Washington is Lee Druckman, he's a senior fellow in the political reform program at new America, a non-partisan think tank and he's written extensively about independent voters in America. Druckman welcome to on point great to be with you. I should also say you're author of the forthcoming book. Breaking the two party doom loop the case for multi-party democracy in America. Now, you know, Mr. Druckman, if I can say if there's anything that the two thousand sixteen election taught us is that no one should presume anything in the early days of a campaign. So I just want to put that out there. But let's talk a little bit about what we know about Howard Schultz. So far first of all he's a he's a longtime Democrats even though he's probably considering he is considering a run as an independent now. And he's also very concerned about the national debt. I mean, for example, I'm going to play a bit of tape here. This is Scholtz on MSNBC's morning. Joe yesterday saying that both Democrats and Republicans have been reckless with the nation's economy, the Democrats and Republicans under the last twenty years on both parties have been complicit in a in creating twenty one and a half trillion dollar debt that is a reckless immoral abandonment of leadership so lead Rotman. Men Schultz's being described right now as a fiscally conservative socially liberal K potential candidate who is his constituency in America. It's people who sit in boardrooms with Howard Schultz read the Acela train with Howard Schultz, not that many people beyond that. So so sort of the punditry in the in the Bill, and the millionaire billionaire classes. Yeah, basically. Yeah, they'll they'll they might want somebody like Howard shelter though. They might also care whether Trump is president or not and might not what spoilt the election by voting for him. Well, let's talk about this a little bit more because in your research. I'm looking at this graphic that you've created of the 2016 electorate, and it's there's two dimensions of it. Right. There's there's this sort of political social identity from from conservative to liberal on one axis, and then the neck economic dimension about being very conservative on economic issues are very liberal, and there's one particular quadrant. This of this graph that's like virtually empty, and that is the the the socially liberal, fiscally conservative quadrant here. So I mean, how few people are we talking about here that's about four percent of the electorate count. So so not not very many people. Not not enough to elect a president. Okay. So then why is there the persistence of this belief amongst as you're saying, you know, financially or politically powerful people or pundits that there's this giant constituency of Americans who who are really concerned about these things. Well, because they talked to each other, and they're really concerned about these things. So they think well everybody I talked to must be really concerned about these things, but they don't get out of their bubbles very much and talk to people who don't ride the Acela train. Okay. So then who are the independence in America? Well, okay. So we got about forty percent of people who say they're independent, which is a nice thing for people to say that they are because they like thinking that. Well, I I don't belong to any party. I think for myself, but most people tend to vote for one party or the other. I mean, if you wanna talk about true independence, people who really don't feel like like they like either party. That's maybe five to ten percent most. But most. People like to say, they're independent because it sounds nice. But they don't really vote like independence. They consistently vote for either Democrats are consistently vote for Republicans. Okay. So so there's just a smaller fraction then you're saying that of voters who irregularly willing to cross party lines. Yeah. I would say that. That's true. Now, the fact that forty percent of people do register as independence does tell us. Something people are are indeed frustrated with with the lack of choices in our party system. But most people think one party is better in one party is worse alternatives. Interesting now to get back for a second to the the Howard Schultz model of fiscally conservative socially liberal. And as you're saying that sort of the Acela corridor crowd you're talking about here. It does seem to me from your research that you're implying that he he's basically the polar opposite of what actually is potentially a large group of of voters who were who were quite significant in the two thousand sixteen election. That's the socially conservative fiscally liberal crowd. Yeah. So we call those populous it's probably about my by by my estimate about twenty nine percent of the electorate, which is people who are a little bit little bit right of center on immigration social issues, some a little bit more writers center, but like think government should help people, and maybe tax the rich little more and support Medicare, and and healthcare and social security. My most people think these are pretty important things for government to do. And one reason Trump may have probably one in in two thousand sixteen is is because he he spoke to these voters, and he tried to differentiate himself from other Republican candidates by saying that he was going to protect Medicare and social security now turn out that as president. He has done has has moved considerably to the right from where he was as a candidate. But he spoke to two very very popular issues. And there are a lot of voters out there who who. Who want government to help them out? But you know, might be a little uncomfortable with with too much immigration and might hold some traditional religious values. Okay. So how is it? Then that we should be defining or thinking about what an independent voter is in America versus what you know. A a politically centrist American might be. Well, these are quite loaded terms. You know, I mean, I mean, I guess a true independent, if you if you want to be specific about it would be somebody who really doesn't care or doesn't see any difference between the two parties and kind of goes back and forth between them and again. That's maybe five percent of the electorate at most. You know, a centrist is probably somebody who's in the middle of of the distribution on both of the important political questions economic, and social, and, you know, th there's not that many people like that either. I mean, a lot of people are are cross pressured, and maybe liberal on the people who who don't feel well represented by the two parties are are mostly people who are liberal on economic issues and conservative on social issues. So maybe you could argue that that's the center, but but the true center, I think it's it's actually pretty small, and again, we also have to keep in mind that there are a lot of people who will tell pollsters that they're sort of in the middle or if they're moderate. But that's again because it's a nice label in the way that independent is a nice label. You know, people say well, a moderate, I'm independent. Well, those are also a lot of people who don't pay that close attention to politics. I mean, frankly, you know, we're we're the weird people in the country who like have have thought through all the issues and really have strong opinions most people now they're busy living their lives. And you know, they trust party to more or less represent them. But, you know, poster estimate battery of questions most people if they haven't thought about it they'll kind of pick the middle answer, although say, well, not liberal not conservative. I guess a moderate then not a I don't feel strongly about being a democrat or being a Republican. I guess I'm an independent. So that's why we see high numbers for people identifying as moderate or independent interesting. Well, Michelle Goldberg in a New York Times is site. She cites some research from from the Pew Research Center, showing that over the past two decades, self identified independents have actually grown more ideologically polarized. Not more. Moderate and she points out that America has two independent senators and one of them is Bernie Sanders. Interesting, but I wanna play a little bit more more tape here from from Howard Schultz and his interview on CBS is sixty minutes, of course, after Scholtz announced that he was considering a presidential run. He got a lot of heat from from Democrats saying that his run may may help reelect President Donald Trump into that Scholtz told Scott Pelley on sixty minutes that if he did decide to run he would be representing all Americans of all parties. Do you worry that you're going to siphon votes away from the Democrats and thereby ensure that President Trump has a second term? I want to see the American people win. I wanna see America win. I don't care if you're democrat independent. Libertarian Republican bring me your ideas, and I will be an independent person who will embrace those ideas because I am not in any way. In bed with a party Howard Schultz on sixty minutes on Sunday, Lee, Druckman isn't the fundamental problem here not so much who or what is an independent in America right now. But the winner take all system that we have here that privileges. Our two party system. I well, certainly we we have a a winner-take-all electoral system in in which you get a plurality of the votes you win at all. And I think that that is a significant problem because it creates a political system where you have two sides that are both competing to be the majority party and win. When they're in government, and they will enact policies within our majority. And then you have a an opposition party. That is just playing obstructionism. They're trying to knock the the the party in power out. And we have a political system that is designed to require compromise. It's it's fundamentally anti majoritarian system, and we have majoritarian party electoral system on top of that. And that's a problem. Well, Ledra is a senior fellow at the political reform program at new America, a non-partisan think tank. He's also author of the forthcoming book, breaking the two party doom loop Lee stand by here for just a moment. We are talking about reaction to Howard Schultz saying he's considering a presidential run as an independent and exactly cool. And what a truly independent voter in America is today we come back. We'll hear a lot more about how a Scholtz run might influence the twenty twenty election. This is on point. This message comes from an points sponsor, indeed when it comes to hiring. You don't have time to waste you need help getting to your shortlist of qualified candidates fast with indeed post a job in minutes. Set up screener questions then zero in on qualified candidates. And when you need to hire fast, accelerate your results with sponsor jobs. New users can try for free when you sign up at indeed dot com slash NPR, podcast, terms, conditions, and quality standards apply. Whether it's athlete protests, the Muslim travel ban gun violence, school reform or just the music. That's giving you life right now race is the subtexts to so much of the American story on coats, which we make that subtext text. You can listen to us on NPR one or wherever you get your podcasts. This is on point a mega chucker bardy. We're talking this hour about reaction to former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz saying that he's considering a presidential run as an independent enroll. So questioning what a true independent in America is right now whether or not they are actually the almost forty percent of the electorate as they are registered or act a much smaller number. We're joined today by Lee Druckman, he is a senior fellow in the political reform program at new America, a non-partisan think tank and joining us now also from Washington is David Frum. He's a staff writer at the Atlantic. Former speech writer for President George W Bush Bush, I should say, and he has recently written about Howard Schultz in the Atlanta, we have a link to that at on point radio dot org. David fromm, welcome to the program. Thank you so much. It's great to have you also with us is near a tendon. She's with us from Washington as well. She's president and CEO of the center for American progress served both in the Obama and Clinton administrations was top advisor to. Lary Clinton during Hillary Clinton's twenty sixteen presidential run near at hand. And welcome to you as well. Thank you for having me. Okay. So David fromm. Let me start with you. You're writing that Howard Schultz is just the thing that the democrat Democratic Party needs to save it from itself. Why? Yes. Well, imagine if Tony Perkins or some other evangelical leader of announced this week that he was planning a twenty twenty run on a real no fool and bring back. God honest to goodness pro-life, no compromises with the gay rights agenda, independent candidacy, I think a lot of the people were upset about Howard Schultz would be very inwardly happy. I mean, they might deplore inwardly they'd be happy because they would recognize this candidate is drawing votes from Donald Trump's coalition. The reason that so many Democrats and liberals are upset about the Howard Schultz prospect is they recognize that Schulz will draw from the democratic coalition not enormous numbers of people. But even fleas figure is correct that it's four percent. Four points is the difference in Hillary Clinton winning and losing. So they recognize that this is coming from them. Why are they able to this challenge? And the answer is because right now, the Democrats are running a left her than thou competition should the maximum tax rate. Be raced fifty percent or seventy percent or seventy five percent, how big should the wealth tax be. If you leave the country should be allowed to take your wealth with you Medicare for all, you know, how John and forgetting that one of the reasons the Democrats did so well in two thousand eighteen is in a lot of people who normally vote Republican, but could not stomach Donald Trump in a lot of places like suburban Houston in the suburbs of Philadelphia. They held their noses and voted for the other party in order to put a check on a rogue president. What Howard Schultz is doing is reminding Democrats, those people exist and they're important. They're not a majority at all. And they're not a plurality, but they are necessary to the anti-trump coalition or anyway, it's highly risky to run an anti-trump coalition without them. And the Democrats right now are engaged in building anti coalition Trump coalition without suburban moderates. Well, so as you right in your ear Atlantic piece, you you say that that President Trump will be beaten not by his fiercest enemies, but by his softest supporters. I mean to that point we've got a comment coming in here on our website from some unnamed honesty who says that Schultz is offered genuine criticism of some of the damaging awful left wing ideas being proposed by democratic presidential hopefuls and honesty mentions. Those high marginal tax rates wealth tax accept Medicare for all its cetera. So let's hear listen a little bit more from Schultz himself criticizing democratic presidential contender. Kamala. Harris Senator come come Harris is Medicare for all healthcare plan. This was Scholtz on. CBS this morning on Tuesday Senator Harrison saying she wants to abolish the insurance industry. That's that's not correct. That's not American. What's next? What industry are we going to Bali next the coffee industry, Nina tendon, re- react to that? And this idea that David from putting out there that this could actually be a boon to the Democrats. I mean, I think that while I have great respect for David everything. He said seemed utterly wrong to me. The argument for David Frum position is Michael Bloomberg running in the democratic primary with range of moderate views, and the idea that in fact, David's argument is essentially that Howard Schultz will reelect will relax Donald Trump. I taking away crucial voters in the Democratic Party party voters they need. So I think from is actually making the argument that many Democrats Americans moderate. Let's feel which is that don't Trump is really an existential threat to democracy, and anyone who helps reelect him is has is problematic and not not actually being a an American patriot from from my perspective. And so I'd say I think the idea that the Democratic Party will not have robust primary debate that is one that actually engages ideas from both moderates and liberals and even some on the left is wrong. There are a number of people who are planning to run in the Democratic Party. Perhaps Michael boom, Bloomberg perhaps Joe Biden, but I think there will be a healthy debate. And just to remind everybody the reason why House Democrats won the house is because there were healthy debates in primaries throughout the country. And in swing districts liberal. Voters voted for moderate candidates who could win those districts. So the idea that the Democratic Party is only Sanders party is I think an argument people are using to justify a Howard chills candidacy, and I think there's very little actual evidence to show that that's right. Okay. So did from going to come back to you and Drummond in just a second. But but near ten and I want to ask you specifically about a lot of people have criticized Scholtz for saying that even raising the concept of Medicare for all is unamerican. I mean, I in a sense that that's dance can be read as as pretty extreme of pretty extreme criticism of an idea that's gaining traction. I mean back in the day when social security was first suggested that was considered, you know, unamerican two. But now, it's one of those sacrosanct benefits that that Americans will not let go of an shouldn't. I mean, every industrialized country has has universal health care. So I think the idea that it's un-american to believe in universal health care is is is I mean, my view basically laughable, but they're very there are a lot of different ways to get universal health care. There are a number of senators who've supported a single payer version they've supported a public option they've supported Medicare as choice for everyone. That's still maintains the employer-based cover employer based system. So people wouldn't lose their coverage. I would really urge people to think through the fact that a notion of universal coverage is one that is seems pretty American to the vast majority of the public, and there are a variety of ways to get there. There's not just one path. In fact, Senator Warren other senators have talked about multiple paths to get there. So I think the. I think this is a kind of a straw man argument that Howard Schultz is using to justify his run. Okay. So David from what's your response to that? Well, I I don't think in the end how it shows we'll draw votes from Donald Trump because I don't think he'll be on the ballot. I think this ideal will burn itself out pretty quickly because he will discover there isn't a constituency for him. But the service he will provide in the interim is this one of my favorite political anecdotes told by Karen Hughes who was a communications advisor to President Bush, and she was on holiday on some beach and saw one of those advertising planes, pulling slogan behind and the slogan said something like Jill come back. I am visible without you, Jack. And she thought bad message Jack too much about you not enough about her. I think that's one of the things that tends to happen. Among intense political partisans, they talk themselves and the Democratic Party is right now having a conversation with itself, but how far does it go indirection of doing all the things that's ever dreamed of doing it faces a pretty weaken competent? So that's natural temptation. What Schultz has just done is reminded them. Who's actually went to decide the election of twenty twenty. And they are people who Democrats are not only not talking to but talking about in very derivative ways that they echoing Democrats are gonna have to compete in America's affluent, educated suburbs. That's not they're going to have to turn out. Of course, they're cork road. And there have to deliver a high turnout among African Americans one of the reasons Hillary Clinton lost in twenty sixteen was because although African Americans voted massively inter favorite. They didn't come out in the numbers. They had come out for. Twelve and two thousand eight by the way, she they they didn't come up for her in the numbers of came up for John Kerry in two thousand and four so that mobilizing block voters is going to be important. But what happens in the conversation is the kind of real committed ideological left of the Democratic Party. Does the talking and forgets that suburban moderates are going to do the voting but David from on that point though. I question your dismissing of the fact that that Scholtz, you know, if he is to run that that he wouldn't peel away some key Republican voters, or or or at least a significant critical mass of them again to quote your line that he could be beaten the president could be beaten by his softest supporters. I mean, just listen to what Howard Schultz himself said on Tuesday to CBS this morning because he actually sees his candidacy is potential candidacy as providing a home for some Republicans from publicans have a choice between a far left liberal progressive candidate on a democ-. Critic side or President Trump President Trump is gonna get reelected if I can get in the race. And I only need fifteen percent to be on the debate stage. I will provide the Republicans where the choice that they do that. They do not have David from. I mean, we're focusing on the impact that this could have on the Democratic Party. But but are Republicans to be concerned about it? If they want to see President Trump reelected, I don't I don't think. So I spent a lot of the first half Howard Schultz said in that comment is absolute right. If the choices between a far left democrat and President Trump President Trump will probably win that's the salutory lesson that Howard Schultz is pounding home right now. The Democrats don't go to the left. If after the second. Oh, look, I I spent a large part of my pre Trump Korea writing. But how there is among the people write checks, the Republican party that there is this vast constituency out there that wants to see more immigration, less healthcare. And as we said in the very first segment, that's not the most under represe-. Representative from the American public doesn't want to see more healthcare unless immigration and Donald Trump figured that out or into blundered into maybe didn't figure it out in two thousand fifteen and that's why he saw off a lot of people who were better at the game. Jeb Jeb Bush was a two-term governor of one country's most important states, really good at politics, and a very smart guy, and with with clear views, and he basically except on maybe the life issue, basically was in Howard Schultz is corner. And he could not win a Republican nomination. I I don't think I think she'll find that the people he's talking to are already sufficiently repelled by Donald Trump to open to a democratic message. If the democratic message is not too frightening. I see so then so that, but then that limits shelters potential constituency as we were talking about at the very beginning of the show lead. Druckman you've been waiting patiently here. Let me bring you bring you back in what's your response to what you're hearing from David Nira. Well. I think I I think David's right that that Scholtz will actually fade away pretty quickly. I think he's a he's a he's a hot Cup of coffee right now. But he leaves that cost. A while it gets. And then it gets it gets cold. But he I mean, he he's interesting to talk to to talk about because he he does raise some of these issues about what what direction the Democratic Party is headed and look the Democrats have a broad coalition, and you know, right now that coalition is really unified against Donald Trump. And I think almost whoever the Democrats nominate Democrats will unify around because a lot of people really really don't like Donald Trump and wanna see him out of office. And that's a powerful force. And. Who whoever becomes president? There's also a congress. There's also a Senate which Democrats may take back, but will still require sixty votes to pass any policy. So I yeah. Given our system of checks and balances, I don't see, you know, a a major move to the far left coming out of Washington. Okay. So near your quick thought on that. Because I want to go to some callers if I could but go ahead Nira. Absolutely. I think that things that people are are are missing in this conversation as the actual attitude of democratic primary voters again just took to the polls in twenty eighteen. And I in fact, think electability and the ability to put together a big coalition to beat Donald Trump will be central issue and as central as any any policy debate. And and that's why I think that this notion that Howard shelters running because there's only one possible democrat and feel that will likely have. Joe Biden in it as well as possibly Michael Bloomberg is just belied by basic facts is it is it possible though that Howard Scholtz or any other viable independent that makes it through to the general election that really the affected. They might have is animating voters who sat it out last time because that they are still a massive constituency who was who wasn't heard from well. Well, I I guess I would just say that if you looked at what happened in twenty eighteen when we had the highest turnout of any midterm and a hundred years, I think that that will be very engaged in twenty twenty. And there's really no indication that people will sit it out in the same way they have before. So oh, go ahead. I think I may a lot of voters who who sat it out in two thousand sixteen. I mean, they're just sort of fed up with politics in general, and and they're they're sort of anti system and Michael Howard Schultz is not exactly gonna excite those those voters. I mean, what what somebody Tucker Carlson like might excite those voters. But in independent candidacies, independent canes can work and have worked in the past in American history under two conditions either. You have an issue that the two big parties. Don't wanna talk about both parties are committed to the gold standard other a lot of people are suffering from deflation, and they they're looking for someone who will talk about a non gold standard kind of money or they alcohol is an issue in the two parties don't wanna talk about it. And there's a constituency for someone who does want to talk about alcohol, that's where third party candidate parties succeeded an independence of succeeded when the person is such an enormous personality that they're bigger than the party system, a teddy Roosevelt or a Ross Perot? And they're so exciting that people want them the problem with Schultz is he's not an exciting person. And he doesn't have a message his ideas that he Howard Schultz is so self evidently smarter than everybody else. And he said what I won't be is the guy in the room. Everybody bring me their ideas, and I will pick the best ideas. So why you? I mean, you're pretty smart, obviously, greatest Starbucks. That's good. But you're not the smartest person in America. And why why should you be the one who picks and chooses from the menu of the infinite number of options. He doesn't have a mess. I mean, I my own hypothesis for how how should candidacy could have one is if in fact, he would not only me he were Mr. Medicare for all say, you know, used to be that in America. You couldn't get a decent Cup of coffee anywhere now. Thanks to me. Even get a great Cup of coffee at a reasonable price just about everywhere because my ruthless control the prices in my understanding of global so Vikings, and that's just what I'm gonna do to American healthcare. If he went running on that that would be a message that people might listen to let me let me sit at the table and pick from the options kind of message is that it's early days yet, though, I keep reminding myself that people were sort of dismissing Donald Trump when he first came down that golden escalator. I mean, we've got some comments coming here online third way forward says because of our highly flawed winner, take all plurality democracy. Our system tends towards two parties in this. Third parties in general elections can only function as spoilers that lead to winners who only reflect the preferences of a minority of voters. So we're talking about reaction to former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz, saying he may run as an independent for the twenty twenty presidential election and exactly who are the independent voters in America today. David Frum is with us Lee Druckman and also joining us, and so is near a tendon by all three of you. We'll be right back. This is on point. Hey, it's a fear. Izenberg from ask me another. If you're craving nerdy trivia or celebrity interviews, we've got you covered with house musician Jonathan Coulton and the sharpest contestants in public radio. Don't miss NPR's. Our of puzzles or games and trivia. This is on point Meghna chocolate Bharti. We're talking this hour about reaction to Starbucks. Ceo former CEO I should say Howard Schultz and his contemplation of making a run for the White House in two thousand twenty as an independent enroll so trying to dig into exactly who and what a truly independent voter in America is today. I'm joined today by David fromm. He's staff writer at the Atlantic league. Druckman is also with us is a senior fellow in the political reform program at new America, a non-partisan think tank and near tendon joins us as well. She's president and CEO of the center for American progress. And I just want to play a little bit of tape of the reaction that Howard Schultz got in New York City when he was at a Barnes and noble on Monday to promote his new book as he's doing now as he's also talking about maybe making a run for for president. So here he is at the Barnes and noble getting interrupted. Millionaire. Billionaire elite. So booing there against a heckler who was interrupting Howard Schultz. You know on the other hand, we got some comments coming in online. GPS six to thirty four says the general concept works for me referring to what Howard Schultz is talking about Jay PX to thirty four says, I don't ride the Acela with him kind of like Charlie Baker for the whole country. Referring there to Massachusetts Republican governor, let's go to the phones Amelia is calling from Placetas New Mexico Emilia on the air. Hey, thank you. Yeah. So I think that David has some fundamental flaws in what he thinks of independent is hasn't as identifies independent I've been registered that way for decades. And I vote Republican democrat independent, and if I thought the socialist Representative had a better idea I'd go that way to I'm a pragmatist. I'm fiscally responsible. But I'm definitely socially humanitarian. I'm on the kind of person who has no problem saying, I'm pro-life, but I'm pro choice. I don't buy into the presumption of m- of lot of this conversation that we will always default only being to party country. He is. Amelia may just jump in here for second and forgive me for interrupting because I think Lee Druckman a who's researched American voters when we talked with him at the beginning of the conversation. He wasn't saying that voters like, you don't exist. I mean, absolutely. He wasn't saying that at all. He just says there aren't as many of them as as folks who generally call themselves independence, and that that was the issue. And I I did hear that part as a person who is thought this way for a long time. I have seen a profound increase in the numbers of people who don't want to be part of the Republican or democratic parties, and they are defaulting that way because they fear being cast aside is irrelevant that doesn't make them disappear. And it doesn't honestly make their votes here. Relevant. It means that we're going to keep you disenfranchised. So I think it's more folks are willing to say we might be three or four party country, which I would feel much better about we'll see people stepping forward and being willing to be identified. Not you know, not even claiming who they are. But saying I'm not a democrat. I'm not a repeating well Amelia, thank you. So very much for your call le-. Let me go back to you and respond to what you heard Amelia say. Yeah, I mean, I think Amelia is expressing a real frustration that a lot of people feel and with with the two parties. And that's one reason why we do see record number of people identifying as independents, people feel frustrated with with the limited choices they have. And they don't necessarily feel either party really speaks for them. But again, given a two party system. Most people do see a difference. And so they were I mean, I think the distinction between people who identify as independence and vote consistently as Democrats or Republicans, and people who are genuine independence, is that the genuine independence. Really don't see any difference between the two parties are really feel caught between them, and that's a very small number of people. But you know, again, I think it is important to recognize that there is a real. I think a lot of people like Amelia feel really frustrated with the choices on offer. And and I do think America would would be much more Representative if we had a four or five party system, I think we'd see much higher voter turnout and think we'd see a much more functional government. I think we'd see true majorities reflected in a lot more policies. I think I think we'd be a much healthier democracy, but we have to change our electoral rules to do that America has often been I it's not true that America's always been a two party system. Erica's? Hey, gradients strong strong third parties we had a greenback party. It had in in the nineteenth century. It had a socialist party in the early twentieth century in these parties would do well and in nineteen seventy six we can the United States in the nineteen seventy is came with inches of having a pro-life party at a time. When neither the Republicans, nor Democrats were have made up their minds about the abortion issue. But to have a third party. You have to have a party stands for something some important issue that has nothing represented. I think a lot of independence say, I'm dissatisfied with the subway system. Why because the subway doesn't stop in front of my house. And he said, well, why didn't you form a coalition with that other person who's unhappy because the subway doesn't stop in front of her? Well, the sudden we can't stop in front of everybody. You guys are gonna have to pick. If there's like one subway stop that. You would like to see built that doesn't exist. You and you can all be on. What that subway stock would be that will be then you have something. And so the question is what is the underrepresented issue in American politics? And I I mean, I think we can think of some, but if until people coalesce around that idea, you're not going to have a the base of a third party. You're just going to have people are dissatisfied with the two existing parties, but are not politically effective on their own well near let me bring you back in here. What do you think about that? I mean, I basically great think that challenge in America is in the United States. And I think lose making this point earlier that it's it's true. It's hard and a diverse country like ours to have reviewed represented in a two party system, but that's an electoral challenge in the United States versus Europe. Essentially, the parties are much more coalition oil, they build coalitions of people with, you know, some disparate views who can get behind a broad governing strategy and Trump to that in two thousand sixteen Democrats to that in twenty eighteen I think my concern about a Schultz candidacy is that essentially the argument he's making is one that is we'll be receptive to just the anti-trump vote. And as our as Michael Bloomberg said earlier this week he looked at this question in detail in two thousand sixteen and Saha that an indigo. Pendant run would help reelect Trump, and I have to say, I think a lot of the things Schulte said over the last couple of days, which sound very critical almost exclusively of Democrats gives you know, I think gives additional pause that this is one pretty large scale effort to that will ultimately help reelect down Trump if if he actually runs, and if he isn't planning to run than we're spending a lot of time talking when he's getting a lot of media attention for no apparent reason. You know, I'm sure a lot of listeners just now when they heard you say that they said absolutely maybe spending too much time on the so early out in the campaign, and he hasn't actually been formally entered the race yet. But Nevertheless, I think it's engaging us in some very interesting and important questions about you know, where American voters are right now. So let's go back to them. Let's go to Mike who's calling from Detroit. Michigan Mike, you're on the air. Today, I'm doing well. What's your thought? Couple of say real quickly. First and foremost, what are the problems for a third party or independent candidate is going to be the commission on mental debate. They have unfair rule the rule about fifteen percent in five national polls in order to just get onto the base station. If you're not in a debate, you will not win the presidency that is one of the key components of it. And it's and very insulted because that rate look down five percents. You were only seen one additional person Gary Gump and twenty sixteen over eliminated altogether and just focused on the constitutional eligibility and the electoral college mathematical winning. Have on that debate because included until are we in the country of you can have ten people in a primary rate, but he can only have two in general and aside from the debate person. If also when the whole political battle happened in the primary you do start to see that's not the point here. But you definitely the media favorite pick. And and here basically picking the winners in these races. You can look back, including eleven point twelve he would it was a clear medium bias against Ron all Republican primary just as right now in early. I have already seen a math ear campaign democrat occur again kind of lintel together. And it's well earning some destructive to our own democratic purchases within the Republic night. I'm going to just take it back. Thank you for your call. Don't mean to interrupt you midstream there. But a lot. Important points that you're bringing up here near attended just briefly since Mike is saying that he's already seeing the media machine gear up against certain democratic candidates. Do you do you buy that? No. So I think truly the what's happened would for example, tells the Gabbard is that there's been criticism of her past views on LGBT rights. That's what should happen in a in a primary process. I think a lot of people tend to think of media conspiracy against candidates and truly think often that there's just very little support for them. I don't think if you took a poll of of reporters that Donald Trump would have risen to the top. But yet he got a ton of coverage in the twentieth. Sixteen Republican primary, and I think that was much more driven by ratings and interest amongst Republicans. It was reinforcing limp. He was he was running. I in the primary, and he got a lot of attention. And so I think we tend to you know, too often we tend to see a media bias around issues that we just feel you know, a disagreement with. So let's go to Alex is calling from Baltimore, Maryland, Alex, you're on the air. Hello there. Hi. So I just I just kind of want to echo at some of the other. The callers have said I would consider I've been independent voter since I was eighteen and was able to vote I did go to the Democrats in two thousand eighteen just so I could vote in the primary because I guess I kind of grew up and realized at least right now, that's the only way to do it. But I'm the type of guy that would vote for a Howard Schultz, at least in theory. But I I agree that if he's going to run he should do it as a democrat. He wants to throw himself in the primary with the Democrats. I think that's a better way to go. Just because it sounds great. I mean in in the future I'd love to see more parties. More independence have a shot. But as I agree that Trump is pretty terrible. And he we need to get him out of office as soon as possible, and as of twenty twenty the only way to do it is a two in our current two party systems. Alex. Thank you for your call interesting idea there, what will come back to and just second. But let's go to David who's calling from Williamstown, Massachusetts, David you're on the air. I just wanted to call in and say that I agree with David fromm that the soft supporters the and suburban moderates will win the day. I think that I probably relate in that regard. I'm also, I'm a registered Republican. But I go back to having voted for Johnny Anderson having voted for Ralph Nader multiple times and also for Ross Perot. And I'm looking for a home I won't vote for Donald Trump. Again, I took a fly around him. And I think his behaviors outrageous in so guy like Howard Schultz. Does I I'm gonna look at everybody. But if anything I would sit it out if I had it to do over again last point, the Atlantic wrote an article about the exhaustive majority, and maybe David might wanna mention how that might factor in here. Thanks for my for listening to my comments. Thank you so much for your call David fromm since he he pointed to you twice. What do you think? Thank you. Well, th the exhausted majority are people who aren't less, hyper partisan than the rest of the country, and whose views don't fit into normal. There is something strange where in American life, where those of us who are familiar with politics understand that if you think this about abortion, you're you think that about the capital gains tax of those that that that wasn't decreed by God is not decreed by the internal logic of the argument. So people often do find themselves stranded in the way that the college has just felt that he was and near tend to let me turn back to you. Because the previous caller talked about if he would like to see Scholtz run as a democrat. What do you make of that idea? I think that's a great idea. I mean, I think that's the that. That is you know, there are many issues that I may disagree with Michael Bloomberg on there are many issues. I would agree with Michael Bloomberg on. But he if he runs he is. That he will run as a democrat. And I think that in the United States is we are currently structured where parties are coalition all if the way to deal with the situation is to enter the Democratic Party and try to expand upon the ideas. And I think the Democratic Party should be a place where moderates can run for president. We're liberals can run for president even some on the left. Good run for president. And so I, you know, and I think that the nature of Democrats right now is to actually focus on electability and who can appeal to a broad coalition including moderate suburban voters. That's how that was the purchase voters in two thousand eighteen I expect it will be the purge in twenty twenty as well. And I think the the idea that only you know, particular reviews by a single member of congress or dominating the entire democratic parties. Really just an excuse to run third party. That's not accurate in America. And. In the party. Well, let me just from back to lead Druckman here for Secondly, we've got about a minute and a half left to go here. I keep thinking about your forthcoming book about breaking the two party doom loop here an of an and I kind of share your your your disdain for this Hella crowd as you were saying earlier, but but you know, just sort of like help us help us close. This conversation is Howard Schultz, at least in contemplating a run here as an independent sort of forcing us to ask the right questions about the the two party system that we have right now. Well, he's doing two things. He's showing us how tenuous majorities are in our two party system. And how even pulling away four percent of the vote can can shift the entire state of the country. I mean, we have a two party system in which you know, one party gets fifty one percent or even less than their even forty six percent in weird plurality way that translates into a majority we have a system where actually minorities can roller Republic. Can party in in governance represents a minority of the country democrat party and governance also represents a minority of the country. So multi-party system would allow coalitions to form that that represent a real majority. But together, we have to change our electoral was we have to look at ranked choice voting we have to look at some forms of proportional representation. And those are those are big conversations in maybe we can open those conversations thanks to thanks to to Howard Schultz. Well, lead Druckman senior fellow and the political reform program at new America non-partisan think tank. Thank you so much for joining us today. A great to be with you David fromm staff writer at the Atlantic. It was great to talk with David. Thank you. So very much. Thank you. Ten president and CEO of the center for American progress pleasure to have you on the program near thank you. Thank you. I'm Meghna trucker Bardi. Meghna trucker bardy. This is on point.

Howard Schultz Trump President Trump Democrats America president Democratic Party Howard Scholtz David president and CEO David fromm Lee Druckman Starbucks Michael Bloomberg Howard Ross Perot senior fellow Druckman Washington David Frum Joe Biden
Where is the Center?

Left, Right & Center

51:30 min | 1 year ago

Where is the Center?

"You've probably read all those news articles with detailed instructions for how to annoy your relatives specific sets of political talking points. Well you can throw them away because KCRW's left right right and center knows how to discuss politics when you disagree. We do it every week. In Our civilized yet provocative style if you like that please donate. KCRW during our season of giving back or give the gift of Case W. membership your most argumentative uncle. The sisters starts all the fights or grandma who's GonNa vote down the Party line like she has since Hubert Humphrey please give by the end of the year at KCRW DOT com slash. Join Josh Barrow. Welcome to left right and center. You're civilized provocative antidote. The self contained opinion bubbles that dominate political debate. It's the end of the year and Opportunity We. I'd like to us here at left. Right and center to zoom out reflect on some broad trends in American politics last year. Use The show to look at how the right was adjusted to Donald Trump's leadership and at the issues and ideas driving a resurgent Sergent left. But what about the center. What even is the center in this polarized era? Well it's my show and I'm the center so this year we're taking a full hour on the state of the center later on we'll be joined by two of our centrist regulars Keli Goff and Tom Nichols to talk about how we're navigating at time when neither party really seems attuned to our interests but first let's figure out what the center is. He's joining me to discuss that. Our LE- driven Lee is a senior fellow at the political reform program at New America. He's an expert in hyper partisanship in his studied. Ideologies voters in the two thousand sixteen election. And how they're changing and also joined my mind McGinnis. She is the president of the bipartisan committee for a responsible federal budget. She's an expert on economic and tax policy. Slowly in my the Hello Lee. Something that I see a lot on twitter I see especially from Liberal Democrats who are sick of seeing politicians moderate to try to win. Elections is is that there are no swing voters swing. Voters are a myth that increasing polarization means that elections are only on turnout not on persuasion not on swing but of course there are swing voters order something like nine percent of Obama. Twenty twelve voters turned around and voted for trump in two thousand sixteen so swing voters can be an or the difference between winning and losing they matter a lot so Lee. Who are these people? How numerous are they? And what makes them swing. Well there certainly are voters who go back and forth between the two parties But there are fewer than there ever have been and they don't necessarily fit in the political center sometimes they're quite liberal on on one dimension like economics but quite conservative on another dimension like social and cultural issues that fit the profile of a lot of Obama trump voters You know I think a lot of voters who go back and forth between the parties are not super super engaged in politics. They probably don't have something of a clear ideology like those of us who follow politics quite closely. And sometimes they. They are voting being on on idiosyncratic Things that they capture the that they saw on the news. The past week or characteristics of the candidates So I think it's it's really hard to pin down on. What exactly is going to deliver election based on on swing voters alone to your point? It's not so much moderates as cross pressured voters when you describe a lot of them they might actually have pretty extreme positions on issues but in ways that don't necessarily line up with the parties and you hear this phrase socially liberal fiscally conservative that some people describe describe themselves but but my understanding is that actually. There's a lot more of the opposite. You get a lot more voters who have somewhat left views on economic issues but are more culturally conservative. That's exactly right You know by by my estimates the Socially liberal economically conservative voters are maybe four to baby generously eight percent the electorate whereas the economically liberal but socially conservative is probably closer to a quarter of the electorate and the both of those those groups are are caught between the parties feel closer to Democrats on some issues closer to Republicans on other issues and ultimately they have to decide which issue is more important to them and therefore which party they wanNA vote for. I want to ask my about that My I think it's fair to describe the committee for a responsible. Federal Budget as part of a centrist centrist policy establishment in Washington. You guys traditionally work on both sides of the aisle Working on deficit reduction ideas that have traditionally seen some level of support on each side of the aisle. How are you guys off where the center is in the public if you know if the if the center of the electorate if the you know the the voters swing back and forth have have moved or at least are murder the left on economic issues? And you're seeing candidates In both parties moving away from deficit reduction as an issue is this. Are you guys off the pulse of where the center is in the country. Yeah I would think it was certainly fair to say that. Fiscal responsibility is not a hot topic or a topic. That is the top of anybody's priority. List right now I guess the first thing I would say is i. Actually that swing voter. I am that strange person who you hear about all the time in elections like who could possibly not have their mind made at this point And often I don't and I'm somebody who is very engaged in politics and pays an awful lot of attention to it but I find myself at least sort of understanding a lot of different and not always consistent points of view and not believing that. There's such a clear right or wrong. Answer and certainly not finding myself. Aligned wind socially economically and culturally in one bucket. So I'll put my hand up and say I'm that swing voter but organizationally we are art. Were very bipartisan group. We have Many partisan directors of our board but we focus on this one issue and it is issue that is certainly out of favor with the public and I think in many ways it reflects how many things are kind of broken with our governance system right now so if you want to deal with the national debt you could do so either with much bigger government the much smaller government but what you do have to be willing to offset the cost of your policies whether it's tax cuts or spending increases and and there's a lot more obviously knew onto up to sometimes you want bigger debt sometimes want less debt. But you can't just borrow for political reasons and we're at a moment now where I think both parties don't care about the issue aren't elevating the issue and importantly are so hyper partisan. It's so competitive. They're not willing to make those hard choices and they're not willing to compromise. which is is kind of the big central component of fiscally responsible policies? Where you have to make a lot of compromises we is this something that has changed over time in terms of what the profile those swing? Voters is is is because I I find it interesting if you look back to two thousand nine hundred ninety two which was the campaign that had the most successful independent presidential candidacy of by lifetime. Ross Perot who got nearly nearly twenty percent of the vote And obviously he ran as a populist. There are certain things that Donald Trump has inherited from from. Ross Perot and you know his his anti-trade position but Perot Perot also ran as a deficit Russian candidate. And if you look back at the at the debates in Nineteen ninety-two all three of the candidates are talking about. The deficit reduction is important because it will push interest rates down That it will make it cheaper for people to get a mortgage so at that time people were able to say that you know this is a pocketbook issue. Obviously we're in a very low interest rate environment right now. It doesn't doesn't have that direct connection but does it change in terms of you know how those cross pressured voters feel is. The is the tendency of cross pressured. Voters toward the left on economics. Is that a new trend or is that a persistent trend. The big trend. That's happened over. The last fifty years is just a general decline of of swing voters. And that's a largely a function of the parties ladies becoming more distinct and further apart from each other in the in the seventies and eighties. You regularly have voters splitting their ticket. and you could see landslides insides in one direction or the other direction Now voters are much more locked in The the Perot candidacy in Nineteen ninety-two. Came at a time in which which both parties had somewhat converged on the centre. And a Perot was able to do so well as a third party candidate because there was a lot of frustration with the status quo in the system in Washington felt like there was no real meaningful alternative and pro raised a lot of populist issues deficit and spending was certainly one of them But it was a candidacy that signal signal the frustration with a two party system now as the parties have diverged and have taken clearer in clearer. Stances on on just about every issue There are a lot of voters who don't feel really at home in either one of those parties but given the stakes of every reelection and given that the other party to them seem so much worse. They're willing to to always vote for one side or the other. I think this is a good time to bring in Erin mcpike. Aaron is a political consultant. She recently joined the communications team for the Mike Bloomberg campaign spokesperson Aaron. You would think with the party's getting more clearly divergent and farther apart that would create opportunities to run up the middle but then also what Lee describes there that it means. People are so scared of the other party that that's their focusing their and they cling to to to one side even if the the even if they don't agree with the party there in on everything because they're so focused on keeping the other side out and so I would ask Mike Bloomberg in a second but before you were working for Bloomberg working for Howard Schultz the starbucks founders. He was exploring his own independent. BID FOR PRESIDENT Now a lot of people a lot of Democrats I should say were were really angry about him even thinking about doing that. And the theme of that anger was basically that he wasn't really going to draw from the center that he was as lease describing their the people thought he was going to draw mostly votes from the democratic side that he would siphon votes off and help reelect donald trump. I'm wondering what you make of that assumption. That the style of center that was represented by Howard Schultz socially socially open but precautious on economic policy. Is that really more affiliated to the left than the right. was that going to draw more votes from Democrats than Republicans. I think it may have of but what I would describe about that effort. Is that some of the trips. That Howard made were two states that have traditionally been red and that is Kansas. I went with him to to Kansas to Arizona and Texas and the idea was to talk to. Voters who feel like the parties aren't talking to them because they haven't been in swing states and really competitive presidential contest contests before so there was a target toward disaffected Bush Republicans. But I think what was found. Is that many of those people could actually now identify with the Democratic Party and so Texas Arizona will be in place certainly in next year's election and those are gettable by Democrats and at the end of the day I think the calculation was made this kind of effort. What work and a Democrat can win? Leo was that the right assumption about a candidate like Schultz that it was essentially that he was going to be drawing. I'm from the Democratic voter pool and is there kind of centrist candidate. The one could imagine that would draw more from the Republican side. What what sort of issue profile with that kind of candidate have to have I? I think the issue profile that candidate would have would would be populist in the way that Donald Trump ran in two thousand sixteen but but actually promising to actually actually deliver on that. I think a Tucker Carlson type candidacy or or what Josh. Holly is kind of shaping out to be Could as a third party candidate could draw some support from the right That that they're on on the a lot of folks who are Republicans are not happy with where the Republican Publican party is on on social spending although they want it for them not for other people but still they like to see a government that spends more on social welfare affair programs that they benefit from higher taxes for the rich but also is fighting the culture wars. And I think there's an opportunity for that my it's interesting. I A candidate who has who has made that formula that describes their work. I think is is Boris Johnson. On his you know his big win on the UK Election and the the F- The formula he put together. I mean obviously the the the issues don't mat perfect perfectly between UK and the US. But you know the the big cultural split over brexit where he huge the right But then promising more social spending on things like their national health service and also tax cuts for the working class the interesting thing about that formula which seems to have been very electorally successful in the UK. Okay and I can imagine that something like that. You know delivering on more of the populist economic elements of the agenda that trump had run on is it's basically it's a formula of tax cuts and more spending So you know the I can imagine why that's popular obviously but it certainly it's the the opposite of what you've been in Washington advising people to do exactly I mean. I think there's no question that the promise of all sorts of goodies on all sides of the budget including tax cuts and spending increases. Which is what we've had in this country for the the last four years as well? is politically popular that. NOBODY WANTS TO RUN ON RAISING TAXES OR CUTTING SPENDING THEY WANNA run on the opposite but of course the result is a massive run up in your national bit and as you pointed out in the beginning as long as interest rates. Stay low that doesn't appear to be that problematic but there's obviously no guarantee interest rates. Stay low for any length of time. We don't know when they'll start to push them up and they're also a lot of other reasons of that can harm armed underlying economy whether it's your ability to fight recessions or create a new social contract or has negative effects on economic growth at a time when you need higher growth not lower but because to quote the economist Charlie Shultz. It's more like termites in the basement. You don't really see those effects. These things are very popular and so I think get flies in the face of the kind of leadership that we actually need if we're gonNA focus on the longer term health of any economy ours or any other countries where you're making policy choices that aren't for the immediate political gain but are for the longer term economic game and in under that scenario you can say I think one should. He's saying we need a very different social contract and what we have. Today we have a social contract constructed for the past century it takes no note of the fact that markets are leading eating too much higher levels of income inequality and lower levels of mobility or their new we need new kinds of protections and insurances with technology and changing and the workplace a new kind kind of disruptions. Those discussion should be had but what I hope for the good of a sustained. Strong economy is that will also see some kind of leadership that says in order to do that. We should discuss how you pay for those things not assume that piling up the national debt is the right answer so it does make good politics but it does not make good or sustainable policy. And that's where this whole story could lead to some real problems in this country and abroad. let's take a quick break. I'll be back with Druckman Erin. mcpike and my McGinnis to talk talk about the role that's interests are playing an intraparty fights for listening to left right and center. You're hearing from our left right and center and we want to hear from you to tweet us at KCRW and download the free KCRW APP to listen to left right and center on demand back again with left right and center. I'm Josh Barrow of New York magazine. Today I'm talking about the political centre with Erin mcpike spokesperson spokesperson for the Michael. Bloomberg Presidential Campaign Mike McGinnis President of the Committee for Responsible Federal Budget and lead Druckman senior fellow at New America So Aaron Use Mike Bloomberg a candidate of the center as he gets into this Democratic primary I think is a democrat. He has been a lifelong Democrat. And he's done a couple of liberal things. I would even point you to what he said in two thousand one when he was just elected mayor. I'm a liberal. I'm a liberal or liberal. And he has done some really progressive things on climate change and on guns and I would point out that that he raised taxes on the wealthy in New York City which is something that a lot of voters want to see that you will raise revenue to pay for programs that you want so I would call him quite a traditional Democrat Lee when when we look at the this his primary where Democrats are so there are different theories of electability within the party And then you have this frame in which it's talked about a lot in the national media where you have to Progressive Candidates Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders. And you have more moderate candidates but then you look at individual voter preferences and you see a lot of people you know. They're like they're for Biden but Bernie is their second choice. It's clear the Lisbeth. Warren and Pete Buttigieg have been fighting hard over the same pool of voters in Iowa. So is it do voters perceived differently. Who is moderate and who is extreme stream in this field then then people who are very closely engaged in the political process do or as the voters that are is that they're not necessarily thinking about it that much thrown ideological frame I am? I think that's exactly right that they're not thinking about it. As much through an ideological frame is as you or I or probably most of the listeners to this program are you know that there are a lot of folks who don't pay super close attention to politics and when they pay attention it's more about you know is this. Somebody who speaking to me is somebody who I I can relate to. Is this somebody who feel comfortable being president and it's not not a detailed analysis of policy proposals but just sort of what what are what are the the tones in which candidate speaks Who who is this candidate speaking to and four and or their certain chicks personnel? Or just do I even know who this person is and often we think of this left. Right and center along a single dimension but politics is really multidimensional and there. They are multiple multiple dimensions on which voters consider whether a candidate is moderate and some of it may just be even the tone by which which the candidate eight speaks that a candidate who speaks more aggressively and more combativity might be seen as more extreme regardless of of the position that that that that candidate takes and voters there's also tend to perceive the candidates that they like as more moderate and the candidates that they don't like as as more extreme. So another way I think we can put this. Is that the media. It covers this through the lens of Litmus tests and we were going further and further down that trap every single election cycle I would say and this time. It's been a medicare for all proposition where I think there's a bit of a backlash about that right now. Knowing that that would be problematic for the economy when a public option would be. I would be much better. But think back to two thousand seven and two thousand eight when John Edwards positioned himself as the most progressive of the top. Three Hillary Clinton I would okay would be the most moderate of the three and Barack Obama was kind of right in the middle of those two voters did not choose him. I don't think because of his position on the Iraq war though they they may have agreed with him on that in him they saw great American leadership or the potential for that and I think that's why so many people ultimately went with Barack Go Bama and when I talked to voters and I was a reporter for a long time so I've talked to voters all over the country. They think that that both parties aren't doing a whole lot of work for them really. I mean now it's Republicans because they've been in charge with Donald Trump and they wanna see efficacy. I worked for for Kirsten Cinema in Arizona for the last three weeks of of that race in two two thousand eighteen and every single morning every single night on my way back to where I was staying I was taking a left and every time I would talk to the lift driver. Many of them were registered. They just didn't want to vote because they they didn't see that politics was doing anything for them but they liked what Curzon cinema was saying because they knew that she could get something done. They didn't like Martha mcsally because they thought thought that she was so negative but they just wanted to see results Myo I was wondering what your thoughts are on cinema. Actually because when I when I look at the US Senate and you know the reputation reputation for deal making and working across the aisle which I think has declined significantly. You see a few of these politicians who I think are more in that mold. I think cinema is pretty new in the Senate has been doing wing. Allot across the aisle. At a way that I think irritated some people on her side. I look at Lisa Murkowski. Who looks like one of the last old school politicians in the Senate in terms of finding ways to gather power and use it toward her particular policy goals in ways? That don't necessarily align with the party. Do you see that on the decline in the Senate. What does it look like when people are able to successfully do the center? I do see it on the decline right now. Certainly on my issue again because nobody is is eager to work on these really hard deals that they have been say eight ten years ago but I think cinema is a perfect example of somebody who I've I've worked with quite some time and is really good and willing to work beyond her party and uncompromising leising doing some deals and I sit there others who are out there right now I'll I'll point out one piece of legislation that has been co Co sponsored you by Mitt Romney and Joe Manchin and likewise. It's got bipartisan sponsors. In the house and it's called the trust act and it would focus on dealing with some of the trust funds that are out of whack in social security and health care and transportation. But what's so exciting is it is looking at how we can address. These big fiscal issues in a bipartisan. By Camera Way. Okay so yes. I think it's massively on the decline. How often we're seeing? This and I think when members are willing to work across party lines take it so much. Push pushback from extremes of their party. It's really Something how compromise has become a bad word but what encouraging is that. I am seeing it in some spaces cases with some members and I think that's necessary also to the bigger picture of the discussion that we were just having. You think there's no denying it's a massive tectonic shift this this moment that we are going through and our political environment and certainly it is no longer like we were saying this one simple spectrum of from left to right like its three dimensional dimensional. Maybe four dimensional and on the issues and then you add onto that people are really responding to how they think those leaders styles are they positive are are they negative. Are they angry. Are they trying to unite us. And I think what's going on. We have a program here called six. That's looking at how the country became so divided. But I think what's going on is very few people feel like things are right right now. Not a Lotta people are waking up and saying my country the political system. My my my life right now is sort of on an upward swing and things are really working but a lot of us have different feelings as to why some people think it's broken political system. Some people think it's a failing failing economic system. Some people would attribute the divisions to cultural shifts all sorts of different things at play And I think on on top of that. These external threats whether whether it's realizing that China is not working where we thought. We were in terms of our cooperation looking at technology. And saying that. There's kind of a dark and underbelly of these issues and and I think people are waking up thinking things aren't right but we are so different and what we think's going to fix that. I WanNa talk a little bit about immigration because I think it has something to do with what my I just mentioned there about sort of deal making having gotten a bad name Lee when when you map out these cross pressured voters who are farther to left on something farther right another you focus focus particularly on economic issues on immigration. I'm interested in your thoughts on. Why is immigration so important that it gets put their in your two way matrix two standing in for other social social issues and the other thing is am I right in my understanding of your research that it looks like trump's position on immigration has helped him not just by activating you know base conservative voters? But it's actually helped him win over some of these cross pressured voters such that you know that was key to building. His coalition allowed him to win rust belt states like Pennsylvania and Michigan. I think the broad perception is is that trump has has taken a position on immigration. That is broadly unpopular but he's pushed a wedge but it's actually a winning issue for him with some of these swing voters. Yeah I think that's right. It is broadly unpopular. But it given the way that our electoral college works that and certain Certain states in particularly in the upper midwest have have disproportionate power and there are a lot of voters there who you know who who actually feel somewhat concerned about the changing demographics of this country. And although I think at a national level is not a winning issue in certain the states it is a winning issue and most importantly I think it raises the salience of that issue and trump's best strategy is really focusing on these divisive culture war or issues even though they're not even though he's not on the winning side nationally It forces a lot of voters in these key states to to really think about these issues and to really really feel like they're they're voting for the future of of American national identity and that that is just a function of how we elect our president because this is so opposite of where consensus has been in Washington. You know at a time of a lot of division of over not in the last three years like in the last twenty years immigration was one of the issue you get a lot of elite agreement among Republicans and Democrats and also in part because it was framed is such an economic issue when it's discussed in Washington you can generally say that pro immigration policies policies. You know they will score as things improve the economy. You can even score increases in immigration as being something that reduces the federal deficit. And so you know what do you make of the of the You know the we kept almost getting toward these comprehensive immigration deals and then you have trump got elected. President in large part is a rejection of that bipartisanship. Yeah I mean I think that the failure of the immigration deals and there was really widespread agreement on those compromises Sort of showed as as our politics Hicks was breaking. Down and compromise was that that point shifting from a desirable. Good to something that so many people saw as selling out your principle again something I completely disagree with. Yes but certainly seems to be the trend happening but I think it reflects something else and that is that our big economic systems that got us to this moment are in some ways. He's feeling they are not delivering. The results that people are hoping and it's really started with the march of globalisation. And I think we're on the verge of seeing if it's going to happen with technology to and what I mean is that big changes and shifts are not delivering for enough people and I think immigration has been a policy that is a part if that economic discussion that probably has been treated more as a political issue unless as the economic issue that it really is and that means that M. Moore immigration has overall for all positive effects on your economy but very SPLASHY effects on hope. And who's harmed and we haven't talked about that in a way that I think there's a shared understanding. Yeah but but a lot of people have feelings about it. Whether they're they're rooted in the economics are not that have come out and I basically the point I would make is. There are some big Meta economic issues that we have to grapple with That are not being discussed awfully because basically we're not having thoughtful policy discussions on any front right now and I think a lot of issues are getting caught in the cross when becoming incredibly polarizing when they should be doing is leading us to have more thoughtful awful discussions about the structure of economy and as our economy shifts how our overall economic system needs to shift along with it might McGuinness. I WANNA thank you for joining us. Thank you so much and can we talk a little bit about the the Mike Bloomberg theory why he ended up getting into this race at the at the at this late time I basically i. Am I right to understand Dan. This I mean because first of all he's not competing in the first four contest. His concern is that the Democrats are going to nominate somebody. WHO's too far to the left is not going to be electable? WHO's going to lose and and and the idea is if we get to a point where you know Bernie Sanders is the guy standing out of the I four contests on Super Tuesday when Mike is running nationally? He's GonNa make the vote for me I'm electable I will win for you case I assume. How do you make that case at a time when all of the candidates including Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren Lead Donald Trump in horserace I polling about the general election? Well we're a long way out from the general election for one thing so we haven't had a one on one with Donald Trump and. I think we're a long way from that. But but let me take your your broader question. which is that when you look at the first four states in February they only represent four percent of the delegates that you need into win a Democratic primary more than fifty percent of the delegates are awarded in March? And so you have all of these candidates in the primary right now. Competing in for a such a small slice of the electorate and a lot of people have been saying for years that this is an imperfect system so why not try new way so that's part of it and and if you look at the first four right right now we have different leaders in almost all four of those states so you might have a split decision. So we're coming in as a new choice. What do we leave it there? I've been talking with earn. mcpike spokesperson awesome from Michael Bloomberg. Presidential Campaign Maya McGinnis President of the Committee for Responsible Federal Budget and Lee Druckman senior fellow at New America. Thank you all for being with today to be with you. Judge you're hearing civilized yet provocative opinions from all sides now. We need to know what you think. tweet US at L. R. C. KCRW stream all episodes episodes of left right and center and companion. Show all the president's lawyers at KCRW DOT com slash podcast for from the KCRW APP. Hey It's me your car. Listen this has been so great great and I think you're a really special person but I just don't feel like I'm reaching my full potential. You know I wanna make a positive impact on the world to some good so I'm asking you to donate me at KCRW DOT com slash cars. They'll pick me up and do all the paperwork to make you proud back again with left right and center. I'm your host Josh Barrow. So we've talked at thirty thousand feet lied about the role of centrist voters in a polarized electorate trying to find the home. The best suits them. Now I WANNA talk with two friends of the show who've been doing that for themselves. I'm joined Keli Goff. Kelly's a columnist columnist the daily beast. And she's a frequent reference and our guest who also routinely takes over the center. Roll on this show and I'm off. Hi Kelly he asked and Tom Nichols is also with us. Tom is a frequent guest on left. Right and center. He left the Republican Party For for good maybe about a year ago after the fight over the confirmation of Supreme Court justice. Brad Kavanagh. Hi Tom. I'm going to be back so I thought we could a moat a little bit today. Kelly how are you feeling about the state of the two parties depressed rest. And why is that. I mean how could not be depressed. It's not just about the state of the two parties Josh. It really is about the state of our country but I would say You know on a smaller level. It's about the state of our political system end of the media because I think that media is feeling just as polarize as our politics have become which makes it even more depressing and I think they kind of feed into each other. It's sort of like the chicken or the egg and but like why not be a Democrat wind up Republican looking. What are your objections on each side? Well you know. I think that the extremists in both parties seemed sort of hijacked both the parties in terms the policy but also in terms of the conversation. I think again. It's like the chicken or the egg the media sort of feeding into that I don't believe the squad represents me but I certainly don't think Donald Donald Trump represents me and so an end for the record. It's not just me. I have plenty of family members who are registered Democrats who find Donald Trump horrifying and they also find find the anti-semitism representative Ilhan Omar horrifying. And so I think for those of us who consider consider ourselves commonsense decent folks We do feel a little bit in the Wilderness in terms of our political discourse in the country at the moment. Tom Whereas your political home right now my political Oklahoma history As they would say judge DREDD. I wander the cursed earth Outside of Mega Out Side of the two mega-cities With nowhere in between I feel a lot like Kelly does. Although I feel a little bit more optimistic about the Democrats but for many of the same reasons I could never be Democrat and If anything I feel like the behavior of the Republicans during this impeachment meant trauma which has really I mean even by the the corroded standards of the Republican Party over the past few years has really been abysmal abysmal And even shocking. I'm feeling pretty good about the decision to leave the Republicans I I had deregistered during the twenty twenty twelve primary for a while just because I was so stunned by the people yelling you know let them die in the Newt Gingrich winning primary which I think is a UH insane anywhere that anybody would take. Newt Gingrich seriously as President But after finally leaving and yes josh for good I I think that was a really good decision and I think that just seems more and more clear to me every day. Kansas say something now respond. It's interesting because because I've been I've as I've disclosed previously on the show. I was raised a Democrat in state of Texas which I didn't realize until I moved to the East village of New York. I guess made me a Republican by northeastern East Coast elite standards. And so sort of a bit of a natural evolution that I found my way to becoming a registered independent. But I would say separate from kind of the fact that I grew grope with different cultural background than I sort of live on my day to day. Basis Beano between Los Angeles in Manhattan The other thing I would say is as unfair as this may be. I think that when you're sort of raised minority and a woman and you're raised by people who identify as Democrats. There's an expectation that there will be more biased discrimination the nation and sort of You know uncouth language about race and attitudes about race and gender coming from conservatives and coming from Republicans and then some some of the behavior that I've seen on the left in the last few years shattered that myth for May some of the the Disgusting Mail You know hate mail if you WANNA call out that some of the language that I face on social media and not just me but other people who are critics of Bernie sanders sort shattered this notion that one party sort of had the monopoly on on Indecent behaviour one party had the monopoly on being a right on racing right on gender and so I think the fact that there's been sort of a hesitancy to hesitation hesitation to call out some of that really bad behavior on the left has also made it tough for someone like me to ever want to go back to the Democratic Party. I I wonder in that vein. What you make of the way that black voters have been discussed in this twenty twenty primary? I thought we had. We had a step down from the New York Times on a few weeks ago. Said something really interesting. We were talking about Iowa Oh in New Hampshire are very white states. Electric there will be about ninety percent white and that's obviously not representative of the broader electorate and Democratic primary which is only about sixty percent white and a lot of people have been pointing that out and saying you know I new Hampshire. This is unfair and I think there's a strong argument there but he pointed out is that you know the people who are saying that now with Pete in the lead in Iowa I should note My husband husband has done fundraising work for Pete in his capacity as a as a political consultant What instead noted was that you know people are saying that now with it was just as true when Elizabeth Warren was the one in the lead Niwa And yet you know the her her numbers were much better in Iowa than they were nationally in part because she also did not have a lot of black support and so basically basically a certain a certain amount of progressives in the party who have an expectation that black voters basically ought to be more progressive candidate? Don't really connect with the idea of you know. In fact black voters are overwhelmingly about fifty percent for Joe Biden in this race it. I've I've had a sense that a lot of white progressives and Democratic Party sort aren't engaging with where where black voters actually are in the party they have their own idea about where black voters should be rather than they are but also sounds like though that they're not engaging with historical data and facts. which is that historically when you go issue by issue? Black voters and Latino voters to tend to ski more conservative particularly on social issues in part because of religious faith. It's not just religious faith but that's certainly a part of it some of the nature of growing up in the south right which isn't just about religion. You may not go to church but you might still have a conservative worldview on certain things And so I think that's part of where the disconnect comes from which which goes back to what I was saying earlier though Josh about this being about the chicken or the egg a big part of the problem I think in media at the moment is there such a stunning lack of diversity diversity not just in terms of race but in terms of class I mean being a member a working member of media. Who Support Yourself? Working in media is really kind of becoming another trust too far laurean profession. Sort of like Hollywood where it's something that rich kids can afford to do. Who can live on twenty five thousand dollars in Manhattan Or in Washington DC. And because of that. That's why you you end up with you know younger white journalists. You're saying this makes no sense for a black person not to support Bernie Sanders Elizabeth. Warren have you actually had a conversation with any black people about their political attitudes attitude. And sometimes you'll find out the answers now so I want to actually since both of you are talking about your reasons for not being in a political party. I WanNa make a pitch for being in a political party and so I in two thousand sixteen. I became a Democrat I was Republican up until then I wasn't really a good fit in the Republican Party I'm a better fit the Democratic Party but I'm you know I'm obviously you know well to the right uh of where the the middle of the party is right now. I think parties are very important vehicles for policy-making and political influence in the system that we have and if you declined to participate in Party then you're declining to exercise your influence there and I realize if you live in an open primary state you can still vote in the primary without being a member of the party. Although New York is a close primary state so do you have to be a member of the party if you wish to vote in the primary and so. I don't think that you know I don't think becoming Democrat means. I'm endorsing everything that a Democratic nominee is four and a half to like everything about the party and similarly. I was a republican long after I felt really good about where that party was but I think that you know I think people in the middle ought to be in political parties especially if they want to bring those parties toward the middle. Because that's you know you have to. You have to show up if you want to influence what it's GonNa do. I agree with you I. I'm working political scientist assist. I think parties are great. They aggregate interests they force you to get along with people that are not you They they forced forced the creation of kind of consensus in big blobs on the right and the left. Which I think is actually good people who WanNa have very particularistic parties or super particularistic parliaments? I think are wrong about this. I don't think you know Italy or Israel In terms of their politics or something we should strive to emulate with that said. I think the party's part of the membership in a party. Problem is there's I think for me a personal issue vanity. What am I signing onto that? The party believes in that I am somehow by my registration condoning that's why had to leave the Republicans. There were things when the Republican Party. The was backing Roy Moore and putting kids in cages. Just not a thing that I can say yes I. I'm a Republican working. Within the system. To change that anymore I think the parties in order to recapture that ground should have to work to capture Voters and their votes and I think most people should join parties. I feel particularly burned at this point. I'm late in life. I've worked both for for Republicans and Democrats. I'm not the voter. You're trying to get any more but I think with younger voters in particular. The parties should have to make a better pitch than they're making other than that. We are really good in the other guys really evil and as long as that's the approach that these tribalist increasingly tribalist parties are taken. I think the the American public should withhold their membership from those parties until they start behaving like grown-ups again. I was GonNa say I think there are other solutions. That are on the table on that more younger people are looking at a new organization called represent us and one of the things that they're pushing for On the local level but nationally or is ranked choice voting voting which I voted for here in New York and actually just passed which I think is a really good solution moving in the right direction which allows for it's complicated to everyone should google but but it allows for other people to run without being spoilers to the two. Major candidates are the three major candidates. I think that's really important. I think people often I didn't feel like they have a choice between the lesser of two evils and if someone can mount a viable third a choice candidacy or fourth choice without being spoiler but being the second or or you know the second or third choice for someone. I think that that can change the conversation but as a political scientist I think the real question I I would kinda throw out here is whether or not. It's likely that the pendulum might swing back. And what I mean by that is if the two parties end up moving back to a place where people have different different. Ideologies are legitimately. Welcome legitimately welcome to disagree even on key issues as long as they agree on certain ones that matter than I could. I see a future where I ended up joining major-party again. Tom What do you what do you make that. I mean my sense has been that like this environment of polarization is normal and it's what our politics looked like a hundred years ago. Definitely what they look like one hundred and fifty years ago And that it was the weird condition was having sort of incoherent political parties of say forty years ago where you. I've had a lot of people to the left and the Republican Party and a lot of conservatives in the Democratic Party was that desirable and is it likely that there would be a way to get that back. I don't think that that's it's a fair comparison because yeah there was a lot of polarization between the two parties that were almost entirely run by wealthy white men of the same political all an economic class and so they were able to make even though we could say you know the parties were just as polarized under interest years ago. Yeah sort of but they also were It's sort of like talking about the the you know World War One Differences among States World War. One yes they were with each other they were all crowned Christian heads of Europe citing with each other and there was a shared understanding what they were doing. I think the same thing obtained in the old pre-civil rights pre women suffrage parties in America. That in the end you had smoke filled rooms and people have different views no matter what the rhetoric can sat down down and said all right. Let's get this thing done. was that better. I don't know I don't think so although I being an old conservative guy. I miss smoke filled filled rooms with With that said you know we're not going back to that so the real question is how can the party's chain now. I think the Republican Party in particular on this has made a disastrous decision to try to placate. Hey the last of its voters exiting the demographic and they made no investment in the future. I suppose you could argue. The Democrats have made a dismal. This will mistake by by basically becoming controlled by its college. Campus wing of the Kelly talks about which is gonNA inherently limit limit. The appeal of that party So you can parties die. Yes I want to contest the notion that Democrats are controlled by the college campus wing of the party because I think I think Democrats are about to nominate Joe Biden for President May. Maybe I'm wrong about that. That's what I've been saying. All through this primary season he's been leading the polls consistently the whole way through that obviously is not with the college. Campus wing of the Democratic Party. Wants and you know I mean Kelly you object to the squad and the squad is four members of Congress but they're also all these Democrats who were elected in swing in district on moderate platforms. Who are who are not for Medicare for all Who are not out there trying to you know to appeal to the most extreme part of the party? I think there's you now. There are a lot of reasons to to make the face of the party. Republicans want to run against her. I mean she's she's a very talented politician. She's compelling she's she's interesting to watch but I don't think I think that is the totality of the Democratic Party right now. Well I think the verdict is the jury still out rate Josh and and you actually nailed exactly. Why says the chicken or the egg which is the fact that media a has made it appear as though people like my mom or the least important part of the Democratic Party when she's actually the backbone? I mean Gordon Cornell Belcher who's you know one of the the most prominent democratic pollster out there said to me years ago that there is no Democratic Party without churchgoing black women. That is the party In terms of the media image that is not the perception so I actually think the verdict is the the verdict is out until the next election cycle. And we see who actually gets the nomination and what happens to those forty-four four seats those forty four swing seeds that the Democratic National Committee is desperately trying to protect but that the Bluer members of the party the more liberal wing of the Party wants want to get rid of because they don't think they represent them media loves covering AFC. What about abby? Think now our WHO's only a couple months older than her and is an Iowa was one of the first female all members of Congress in Iowa. And there's only a few months older than me who gets like no press coverage and she has been incredibly instrumental in in in being vote on some really important pieces of legislation. I'm probably going to sound overly simplistic here but I will say that a few years ago. I interviewed representatives Rick Lazio and a former up Charles Rangel about this this issue of polarization and it was really interesting. Their take on it. Because what Congressman Rangel. Some of his closest friends were were die hard conservatives and he said that things had turned so ridiculous by the time he was about to leave Congress that he said he had conservative friends. Who had actually lie about where they were going if they were having an affair when they were just going to have dinner with them because they you have been warned like you were not too too with the enemy and one of the things that came out of that conversation that stayed with me is he said that one of the things he thought had really Warped bipartisanship listen ship in. DC is that living in Washington had become such a bad thing that it could cost to your seat because people would say you've gone Washington you're part of the swamp you're part of the problem now and he said but guess what twenty years ago if your family's lived in DC and your kids played soccer together. It was really hard to call their data sleazebag on in a TV show. Because you're going to hear about it from your wife especially agree with Kelly that your confidence about the the college wing not controlling Democratic Party. That's what we're about to test Joe Biden's and I right now with Bernie Sanders right behind. I lived in Vermont. The idea that Bernie Sanders is running second in a democratic. Primary is so fantastically ridiculous to me that this is kind of pardon a non Democrat crat by not even a member of the Democratic Party. And you know has no real record of doing anything other than kind of you know agitating taking college kids I think this is. This is the thing we're going to find out. Twenty twenty about the The future of the Democratic Party at whether or not the center of gravity is GonNa shift toward you know this minority because I think they are a minority. I think the squad is a minority of Democrats. I think the future is with people. Like Abigail. Span Burger Vergara Connor Lamb. Is the Democratic Party. Stops saying things like Tom. Perez recently did when he said is the future of the Democratic Party it's not just republic Republicans. Love that kind of talk. But it's not just Republicans saying it. The exasperation I'm hearing from the two of you about Bernie Sanders and that wing of the party. This feeling is very mutual. What you hear? From from that part of the coalition even though burning is not a democrat. I mean these people are are very much within the party. It's a substantial fraction of the of the Party and they are very angry with the moderate party I think in both cases a lot of the anger is about the spoiler. Fear people feel like this part of the coalition is not really on the team and they're gonNA screw up our effort to win a general election. They're gonNA break off Bernie's supporters like. They did last time right like they. Actually Hillary Lash the the. I'm not saying that this complaint is wrong and the flip side of and you saw it with the with the you know the Howard Schultz trial balloons the anger about. How dare you run and draw these votes? There's there's an entitlement the comes from both sides feeling like that you are entitled to the vote to the votes of these people who are frankly pretty ideologically different from you and I actually. The entitlement is wrong in both directions. I I think that you know you need this option of exit. That's how the party works as an institution if the party is supposed to aggregate the interest of the people who are part of the coalition. They both need threats that they can make. And so I. I actually feel like both you know. We as moderates need to chill and these people on the left also need to chill in the in the sense that you know. Nobody owns anybody else's else's vote. You know we. We have to put a candidate. That is broadly appealing. And there's a similar parallel issue on the Republican side that I think has led to its own fights in in in and that party. But you know it's not the Party's not entitled either devotes at the Center or the Left. You need someone who can get both of them. I don't disagree with you but I'm not in title. I left right. You can have your party. Yeah I know but you're still you're still mad about the verdict. Bernice Orders Voting Green. I'm not thrilled that Donald Trump is president. And I'm not thrilled. That people nope many of them. WHO said I'm Bernier? Bust felt that it was a better choice to allow Donald Trump to become president who doesn't agree with them on any issue then to allow someone else to become president. Who agreed with them on eighty percent of issues now? Here's the thing though. Josh the reality is my life is fine. You know a few years later with Donald Trump being president a lot of those people their lives aren't fine right and what I would say is again. I don't see entitlement because I left. Entitlement would be if I told someone how they had to vote. I think it's awfully entitled for for someone who is not a Democrat to try to reshape the Democratic Party. I mean in some sense. I'm a better Democrat than the Democrats. I've said repeatedly an imprint. You know I mean really. I mean I'm a party I've been acting like a party. Loyalist I've said and Trent. I will vote for the nominee of the Democratic Party. Even if it were Bernie Sanders so I think is going to be completely ineffectual and would be probably gonNA president as he was a senator from Vermont. You know if that's what it takes in this time of national emergency to get rid of Donald Trump and that is how I will cast my vote and my biggest complaint about the the squad wing of the Democratic Party is they're not. They say they believe it's an emergency. They say they believe it's constitutional crisis. They just refused to act like it. They keep saying yes. We're with you. We have to get rid of Donald trump up but that has to include include free college tuition. It's just not a serious conversation. It does not make them look substantive and serious but going back to your point about entitlement meant Josh. I actually agree with your fundamental argument and if Socialists feel that strongly. Don't they have their own party. Well careful what you say they might do it. We're GONNA have to leave it there talking talking with Keli Goff columnists of the daily beast and Tom Nichols columnist and author. Thank you both for speaking with me. Things Dash thanks. That's all we have time for today. I WANNA thank Kellyanne Tom. I also want to thank Erin. mcpike Maya McGinnis Guinness and Lee Drummond left right and center is produced by our technical director. JC SWATTING PJ. Shahad Matt is a production. Assistant taught him Simon Composer Music. I'm Josh Barrow. Thanks for joining us in tune in next last week for more left right and center download and subscribe at KCRW dot com slash L. RC the KCRW W. APP. Or wherever you find podcasts. Left right and center is produced and distributed by K._C._R._W..

Donald Trump Democratic Party Josh Barrow Republican Party president Lee Druckman Mike Bloomberg Washington DC Tom Nichols Bernie Sanders Elizabeth Warren Kelly Iowa Joe Biden Barack Obama senior fellow President Perot Perot KCRW
The Issue With Oscar Noms

Slate's The Gist

33:37 min | 1 year ago

The Issue With Oscar Noms

"The following recording may contain explicit language. I can't get more explicit than may say it may It's Monday January thirteenth. Two Thousand Twenty from slated to the gist Mike. PESCA president trump went on the safe-space of Fox News to lay out what he said was the imminent threat from Qassim Sulejmani. I can reveal that I believe it would have been four embassies but Baghdad certainly would have been deleted but I think it would have been four embassy could have been military basis could have been a lot of other things too but it was eminent and then all of a sudden he was gone His Eminence the Donald Old speaks of imminence. And I suppose we must all acquiesce but the senators were given. The Intel briefing. Hadn't heard of this plan to attack four embassies other administration officials who explained the imminence of the attack had never cited four embassies and after careful questioning on. I can't three out of the five Sunday shows Secretary of Defense Mark Esper- admitted okay. There weren't literally four embassies per se. But you know we kind of felt like there. There were four embassies. It was that type situation so in a nutshell the president was lying or as they say when movies are based on a true story but then you find doubt that the main white guy protagonist and realize was an Asian beetle. He wasn't so much lying as conveying an emotional truth presidents. Lyle presidents lie all the time many times. The president will lie about a Casas Bell. I that means they lies into war. He certainly will lie to get him out of the accountability ability for war. We get it. It's all priced in. But it is notable that the secretary of defense ultimately did not back up his lie as per finally had had to admit it here he was on face the nation different what the president said was he believed that it could have been attack against additional embassies. I shared that view. I know other members of national security team showed up you. That's what I deployed. Thousands of American paratroopers to the Middle East to reinforce our embassy in Baghdad and other sites throughout the region probably and could could have been that is more like an assessment than a specific tangible threat with a decisive piece of intelligence. Will the president say there. It was a tangible. He didn't cite a specific piece of evidence. What he says he probably he believes independent one? I didn't see one with regard to four embassies. Maybe the president got the message about the four embassies from the leader of the boy scouts. Who called him to tell him? He was time's person of the year for his groundbreaking research into windmills causing cancer. Like I said all priced priced in trump's at over fifteen thousand lives or misleading claims according to the Washington Post and mark asper finally broke down and indicated that the embassy threat was misleading. How ever esber then went on to evoke an historical precedent which almost broke my brain? He he was asked. About Congressional oversight of military action against Iran military action that he just admitted was impart or has been justified defined by lies face. The nation host Margaret Brennan asked. Why can't Congress have this debate as the Beta news? Be Conscious of the messaging particularly to our troops because they are looking for messages. Do they have the support of the American people. While they are in harm's way why do I say that my predecessors have said that in the past and I had the personal experience it's in the one thousand nine hundred ninety one Gulf War. I was on the ground preparing for our final actions to go into Iraq. We watched very carefully the debate in Congress in mid-january that you're to find out. Did we have the support of the American people are lawmakers move course you carefully watch the debate and the vote in Congress. It literally decided if there would be a Gulf war what went on then a vote about the authorization of military force is what many in Congress want now. If esperer is saying saying that the reason that Congress should be wary of a debate now is that in one thousand nine hundred one. They had a debate and that the troops would have felt I. I don't know bad or sad if Congress didn't support them well guess what they wouldn't have felt bad or sad if they went into Iraq they just wouldn't have gone on into Iraq. The troops were waiting not for a pat on the back or thumbs up but they were waiting literally waiting for congressional authorization and if the vote had been. No there'd be no Gulf War was close two hundred fifty two one eighty three in the house. Fifty to forty seven in the Senate but Congress authorized and war. We did wage as S.. I was trying to figure it out the best I could come up with. Is that Esperance. Point was basically A. I'm a veteran. True was airborne and also be Congress. Congress shouldn't vote against wars and maybe in case they would vote against wars. We just shouldn't let them vote at all. I think that's what the point boil L. Down to it's not as bad as being caught in a lie. But since trump has done that fifteen thousand times and Esperer modes and methods of argumentation or new to us. I thought I I would. Highlight his reasoning as another piece of evidence that this might not be the Dream Team of the best people we had all been promised on the show. Today I should feel about a solution to so many of our representation problems the solution that's fallen out of favor but to me seems preferable to the Non Solution Shen of spasms of discontent which we now seem to have embraced but first one thing's for sure about politicians be they Democrat or Republican Republicans are worse. Well the current batch certainly seems to be the rally round the trump deny global warming thing dealbreakers for me. But what if you wanted to make the case. Okay Okay Okay but you know. Democrats aren't that much better. I happen to disagree. But maybe the problem isn't that these two parties are both bad or that one's good and one's is bad or that neither is good enough. Maybe the problem with the two parties is that there's only two of them political scientists Lee Druckman think so otherwise otherwise he wouldn't have written breaking the two party doom loop. Hi this is dial with week and I've got a quick message a really important initiative. We are launching here. It's late it's called. Who counts over the next thirteen months late? Reporters and podcasters will be investigating who counts in the voting booth who counts as an American and whose money counts in the democratic process. And also WHO's doesn't we will be telling the stories of Americans whose voices have been silenced whose votes have been diluted whose power has been clipped? And we need your help your sleep. Plus membership will let us assign more stories traveled to Overlook Places Commission Special PODCASTS project and pay for lots more reporting. We we also want to hear from you. What should we cover share? What's happening in your own communities by emailing us at who counts at slate dot COM to learn more about this vital vital a project and how you can support it please go to slate dot com slash who counts? I've been enjoying the writings of political scientists Lee Rotman for quite some time. Now maybe enjoying the wrong word because what Lee Druckman writes about is all the flaws of our political system but then he proposes a solution. So you might think that's the part you enjoy. No it's not because it has the effect of me saying yeah that'd work and it'll never happen. Well he's put down all his ideas all his frustrating because they're mostly true ideas into a new book about pretty much the biggest bad thing. That's going on that exp explain so many of the other bad things. It's called breaking the two party doom loop the case for multi-party democracy in America Haley. Hey Mike so why is I know that you did a lot of research on say money and politics and a lot of people will say oh. That's the biggest problem but why do you think partisanship the current flavor of partisanship is worse than anything else like money in politics corruption racism bad media etc okay. There's a lot of terrible things going on right there. Yeah yeah so pick off the top of the parade of horrible CZ. Yes the worst at that parade is is hyper partisanship Because it fundamentally threatens the Basic Foundation of democracy which is a shared sense of fairness a shared sense of legitimacy legitimacy in the basic procedures of elections and And government and what we have now is is really unprecedented level of binary Hyper partisanship that is fundamentally destroying that foundation and in the book I argue that this is actually something new that while we've already. We've always had a two party system. We have now is a genuine two party system with to truly distinct national parties equally Equally balanced both both of which have a chance to take control of Washington in any given election and that close competition and deeply divided. Two party system is is a real threat threat and for a long time. We had overlapping parties and didn't really matter that much weather. Democrats and Republicans were in charge. But now we have these two truly distinct parties and no resolution and just escalating hyper partisanship ahead. Right and the irony. And I'm using this word correctly. Is that it was political scientists. Who didn't 'cause it but said it would be a great thing? If R Tischler two party system were ideologically logically sorted and I've talked about this on the show you could go back to this big nineteen fifty study where they said Yeah we we have two parties but what do they really represent. Wouldn't it be a great thing if the Republicans were just. I don't even know if they actually made the prescription but we're going to be a great thing if they were really just conservative party in a Liberal Party that would have so many benefits came to pass and you know Current political scientists are saying. Actually that's the worst thing that could have happened. Yes so let's listen to you and those of your ilk well not all political scientists are the same and there are certainly plenty of folks who were political scientists in the nineteen fifties. WHO said actually? That's a terrible idea. But certainly at the time I am you could understand why a lot of political just might come to the conclusion that we ought to have More distinct parties because when the two parties are basically the same. It's really hard for voters to send clear signals and to know what the parties actually stand for. And that's an important piece of democracy. She is for elections to actually mean something secondarily that two party system was really based around a lot of consensus which meant that a lot? The differences in the country weren't being aired and debated and in particular. It was a consensus not to deal with civil rights at the national level and perpetuate the Jim Crow South South which I think we would not consider greatest success of of American party politics Now I think the mistake that they made was not in saying that party are you should stand for something is in thinking that there should only be two political parties and at the time they thought well couldn't possibly come to pass that American parties would become audie logical and quite distinct American politics was so non ideological at the time so ultimately it was a failure of imagination To understand what what it would look like to have to truly distinct parties representing two very different geographies very different values and fundamentally different ideas of what it means is to be an American. Is the problem that there are two parties WanNa Liberal Party and Conservative Party as much as it is the problem that let's put both of our cards on the table where both Democrats or left leaning to some degree or another. Is the problem that one of those two binary choices has gotten so oh so out there so dysfunctional so empathetic to equity. I think the answer is both The fact that we have a two party system a genuine two party says some as a problem and the fact that the Republican Party has moved so far far to the right and has embraced an increasing Li some might call anti-democratic view of democracy. Making it harder for people to vote. That's it's a serious problem but the challenge is there's no way to resolve that problem in the two party system because a lot of folks identifies Republicans and and a lot of folks think well Democratic Party is not for me so the only alternative is the Republican Party and they're motivated as much by preventing liberals from taking power as they are supporting what the Republican Party stands for. So the only way to break out of this this gridlock out of his doom loop is to essentially blow both parties and allow parties to flourish new coalitions to emerge so that. Not Everything is a is a zero-some political contest. It's not everything is trench warfare affair for the fate of the nation. But wouldn't the more doable strategy just to be Democrats beat these totally radical article Republicans. They beat them on the state level and the local level on the national level. They do the blocking and tackling they also propose a vision. They also may be benefit from the demographics which you rightly say are a little bit overblown but they benefit from demographic shift and therefore within this two party system. We don't have to change this system you essentially you make the Republicans more sensible you bring about that you breathe into life that autopsy. That Ryan's pre-bus did for the party. We have to become become less white supremacists than less anti immigration. And that's an easier fix than a total overhaul and a change. In the way American politics this is always ever been well. I think one of the challenges is that One that understates the the inevitable backlash backlash against the whatever party is in power. People overstated that in two thousand nine when Democrats took unified control of government and then there was a backlash now. This is a predictable pattern. American politics People considered us. There'd be a thermostatic nature that America moves more in a more liberal direction when Republicans are in power in a more conservative direction when Democrats are in power and I think we would likely see that same pattern continuing So I'm not sure how Democrats Democrats are going to get enough of of of majority Given those predictable patterns and finally I think the more troubling part part of that is if it looks like Democrats are going to start to be in a permanent majority position. I don't think the Republican Party is going to say we should suddenly moderate. I think think the message that they will take away. We have to fight even harder and be even more aggressive. And that's when democracy will really be threatened. I mean I think that's already some from what we're seeing in the Republican Party now and it will just get worse and worse so I I don't. I don't see how the Republican Party is in a moderate when all of the moderates left the Republican Party. And there's nobody within the Republican Party coalition to say. Hey let's totally do a one eighty on the values values that we've been fighting for and be the party of of multiculturalism and immigration to compete with the Democrats so there are different methods of voting on in a lot of them are used in places as you know obscures main in Ireland. Give me your favorite ways that we could vote differently or maybe even structure how our legislation. You shouldn't works that would give rise to a multi-party democracy. Yeah so there are a lot of forms of proportional representation. Most advanced democracies have some form of portion of multi-party democracy The version that I recommend in the book is a is a version That is very similar to what they have in Ireland and what they have in Australia which is is a system of ranked choice voting And in the house. I would combine that with multi member districts. which would create a proportional system in the Senate? I think you'd have to keep the single winner elections Shinzo It also increased the size of the House and also get rid of congressional primaries and I think the combination of all those things together would would move us towards a multiparty democracy. You know look. I think the challenges that we're at a moment in which there are a lot of challenges broadly to to liberal liberal democracies throughout the Western world. There's backlash to the financial crisis and globalization. There's increasing divide between the cosmopolitan urban parts of the of of the countries that are doing well and engage in a global economy and the post industrial Rural exurban parts of the country that are increasingly left behind between younger anger and older generations and the question is which type of party system is most equipped to to resolve those issues and to me. The danger of the two party system is that it really is and amplifies those divisions in a way that becomes zero sum in binary and all or nothing. But do you think that are parties. Make US fractious or how fractious we are has given rise to these Very far apart sorted parties. Because because I worry that if there were this system with all these different parties and the most that anyone could wield is you know ten to fifteen percent we'll have a situation like Italy or or like Israel. Now you know just keep we keep forming governments. There's no continuity of power to some extent it is a feature not a bug that even though you might not have have the full support of the majority of the American people you are president and you have the power. We have a very strong presidency. Unlike a lot of other countries given our spot in the world unlike Italy I think it is to our benefit that we have a strong relatively strong executive well we could still have a a a reasonably strong executive in a multi-party system But I think the the danger is That in a two party system if neither party has the majority You're in this system of of endless gridlock. In the coalition's since get basically stuck the advantage in multi-party system is that yes sometimes you have to hold another election or it takes a while to build that coalition but then you can build a governing earning coalition and the coalition should be fluid because majorities are changing. And that's okay. The question is whether the legislation and the policy making is ultimately somewhat stable. And I think the danger of our of our bifurcated two party system that as the parties have pulled apart the policy goes from very you for right and then to the left to the to the right to the left and there's no stability as for the question of how divided we are. I mean certainly. America is is a divided nation But I think the the two party system is amplifying and and redefine those divides in a way that makes it very hard for us to resolve those debates because we've cast them so much in terms of all or nothing either. The Democrats ruler the Republicans rule but in a multi-party system. No single party has has the pretensions or the illusion that they will be the dominant majority and so they have to build coalitions. They have to compromise. That's just the name of the game and that's that's institutionalized in the system and I think that was how our politics operated in a in a different period which we had something much more like a multi-party democracy eighty within our two party system and finally the cover of the book breaking the two party doom loop has illustration of animals painted the red white and blue. And you got your donkey in your elephant but then there are three others in there. I suppose representing parties yet to be born. There is a wolf. Looks like a grizzly bear at the tiny tags and hind legs. And some sort of Puma. What do you imagine these if you're right fanfare parties? What would they be what? What's the Grizzly Bear Party? The Wolf Wolf Party in the Puma point now So in the final chapter of my book if people make it that far. I I do envision. A future scenario in which we do have a five-party party system and the five parties that I envision are on the left that there's a Social Democratic Party think Bernie Sanders. There's a moderate New Democratic Party Joe Biden And then on the right that's new. That's new Dell. I mean new judy. Yeah Ah okay. There's a new Democratic Party. Think think Pete Buddha judge there is a A REFORM REPO FOR RE. There is a reform Conservative Party. Think Think Marco Rubio. There is a Christian Free Market Party. Think Ted Cruz and then there's a Tucker Carlson. Well I'm the Church Tucker Carlson I I would. I would put him a little bit more in the in the final party. which is the Nationalist Populist Party Think Donald well trump or Tucker Carlson right and who gets who gets what animals though I ever do it. Who Do you think I duNNo? No No I. I'll give the bear to the To the to the Socialist Democrats give the the coyote to the to the to the Ted Cruz. Republicans look INS and And I'm not looking at the book. Well I think I think think the Puma forget the poem it would be actual trump. Yeah all right. She'll be actual trump. Just just trump all right Lee Drummond's a senior fellow in the political reform program at New America. He is the author of breaking the two party. Doom loop the case for Multiparty Democracy in America. Thank you so much thank you my. This was a lot of fun. Uh Now the SPIEL. The Oscar. Nominations were announced today and like every year for the last. I think six the celebration of the glories of cinema became a grump fast about the paucity of female or minority nominees. Here was ceremony host. Isa Ray after the best director. The nominations were announced Hustler's Laureen Skafar. Area snubbed the farewells. Lulu Wang snubbed snubbed. Greta GERWIG snubbed. Snubbing little women. It's just what the Oscars due in Two Thousand Fifteen Twenty sixteen the Oscars were labeled as so white Hashtag Oscar so white. That was a protest over the lack of minority acting nominees in two thousand eighteen. Greta GERWIG was once again left off the best director through list causing Natalie Portman to say and here are the Armao nominees last year. There was no shockingly blatant racial Scholer gender-specific snub just in case the Oscars were thinking of being something less than a total bummer. Kevin Hart was announced as host then withdrew drew after scrutiny of his past homophobic jokes jokes. That were being quotes jokes. Maybe it's possible that on artistic merit. Little women wasn't wasn't his well directed a film as the Irishman or nine hundred seventeen or the other three movies that were nominated. I don't know what does that even mean Greta Gerwig was pointing a camera and working with actors actors and listening performances. Scorsese was doing that but then distorting some of their facial characteristics with de Aging Technology Sam Mendez was achieving leaving some sort of technological miracle to make World War One appear as if it all happened in one take I mean he seemed to be generally different things gerwig partner romantic partner Noah Alabama back was also left off the best director list for marriage story. That's a movie. That's a lot like little women. Great acting insight into the human condition but mostly people talking rooms the Oscars these days seem not you define great directing as people mostly talking in rooms. Of course the Oscar subjective and the aren't life or death they aren't Austrailia wildfires coulds force or even educating our children. So let's talk about something that is more like educating our children. Educating our children specifically New York City children although the issue I'm going to talk about is playing out throughout the country black and Latino children school children are losing out on the advanced opportunities unity's of selective high schools and magnet programs. I say Black Latino and not students of color because Asians are greatly overperforming. In fact in New York City Asian Asian students make up fifteen percent of the overall student population but account for forty percent of the slots in the city's so called gifted and talented programs whites make up the same proportion portion of overall students about fifteen percent. They take up about thirty three percent of the seats in that program. This means that African Americans and Hispanic students which are most of the students in New York City represent a small minority of students in gifted and talented classes. This is a problem but you might not believe what one solution one on. Prominent solution is. It's to end all gifted and talented classes. While the classes certainly benefit the students involved are really sought after by parents. The problem is that black and Latino students are under represented and black and Latino moms and DADS would love to get their students into classes but they can't so so. A task force assembled by New York Mayor Bill De Blasio recommended. Let's get rid of all the gifted and talented classes. Now I was thinking being with the problem is there aren't enough black and Latino kids in these classes. Why not get more black and Latino kids in these classes and let's not do it through complicated end arounds? Sounds like thinking about the wealth of the neighborhood. A kid is from or the average elementary school. Lunch program the average number of kids on paid launch. They people come up with these complex proxies for poor nece or blackness or Hispanic heritage and they've been proposed as a solution Lucien for the selective high school problems have another solution. Just have a quota this is also my way to address that Oscars underrepresentation tation problem. We were talking about have a quota if women or minorities are underrepresented make sure they're represented in schooling. It would work like this. You take whatever. Minorities level of representation is in the overall population. And you make sure. And whatever you're selecting four has at least two thirds that percent of representation so we're we're talking about gifted and talented programs actually test four year olds to get into these programs. You talk about all the kids in all the schools so the schools are twenty five percent African American in New York City. Which means that you're gifted and talented program would have to have up? Seventeen percent black hits and in New York City. Forty percent of students are Hispanic. Which means is that twenty seven percent or so of the giftedandtalented slots we gotTa Hispanic students? Then when it comes to high school exams you don't just have to go with the overall population in the entire tire school district. You could say. Let's look at the overall population of every student who tested proficient on state exams and then make sure by quota their representative presentative. It's not a perfect solution. No but the very fact that we have such a dire problem speaks very largely to the imperfections that abound stuyvesant stuyvesant high school jewel of the city system. Eight hundred ninety five slots for students. Seven black students got in seven. That's not still the massively under representative seventy it's seven. So what are the argument that if you have quotas that then black students who do qualify defy will be made to feel that they only got in because of quotas will is that worse than allowing only seven black students to get into Stevenson lawsuit revealed that Harvard goes through all kinds of processes to ensure that the incoming class is fourteen point three percent African American. That's what their class is. Roughly in align with very closely in line with the African American population in that age group. Now I've never heard of a black student Harvard. Who at one point or another wasn't confronted with with the accusation? Oh you only got in here because of race. And that's tough that they have to go through it. It's a cruel thing to say it's ignorant The people saying it don't know the truth of it but let let me ask you this. Is it worse than the alternative. Have the school be widely underrepresented. Public Universities went through this in California and Texas. They didn't allow race to be considered in admissions. And what you had there wasn't. Ucla Ten thousand applicants being admitted and two hundred of them were black so maybe a quota is better than that situation. Yes maybe if some other ignorant cruel. Harvard UNDERGRAD turns to. They're black peer and said you only got in your because of race a it might not be true or be. It might be a little true but a lot better than than not getting in there at all. Let me talk about something I know well the NFL. It's experiencing a deficit of coaches of color. Just four out of the thirty. Two teams have head coaches who are Black Hispanic Manic. One method over the years has been something called the Rooney rule which mandated that candidates have concluded is finalised. This is a quote by the way you would enforce a team to give a job up to a black or Hispanic head coach. You just make sure that those candidates be put forward for consideration this is totally analogous with the Oscars. You might not realize it because they make a big big deal about who's the nominee but being nominee is just being a finalist for the award so if it drives Hollywood crazy or enough of Hollywood they would crazy when they nominate a slate of actors without any actors of color wanting just mandate that they always include a person of color. Who knows if they had done that? J. Hello just might have one for hustlers. Also since it's a closed system with the academy never have to reveal if the candidate was a beneficiary of the quota system. I mean if they had done that with J. Lo I'm sure everyone say well obviously. She deserved it. She wasn't a beneficiary of the system. Take directing if you mandate that a a female director of the five directors. One has to be female. I bet you there would be a lot more female directors getting jobs in Hollywood if you knew that. Twenty percent of the Oscar nominees. We're going to be female then executives would start giving out jobs hoping to be one of these nominees and compare this to the current situation the USC let's see Annenberg. School found out of the one thousand three hundred top grossing films from two thousand seven to two thousand nine hundred thousand. On average four point. Eight percent were directed by women quotas got a bad rap in the eighties nineties when we as a country. We're less racially aware and less likely to flat out say people of Color are under representative. Presentative diversity was not the priority then that it is now and there was a lack of bluntness which we definitely have now but now we are willing to say they're simply needs to be some black people brown people or women people among this pool of people back then we didn't say WanNa hear how much the idea of quotas had been denigrated. Play this moment from one of the three presidential debates in the year two thousand then governor George W Bush thirty was pretty clever when he said this. Affirmative of action maize quotas. I'm against it for okay. So he's the conservative here was Al Gore's answer to that I'm against quotas they're illegal. They're against the American can weigh against this backdrop phrase like affirmative action took hold they were soft palatable ways to have a quota back then if you had to rank the ills of society like Al Gore was essentially doing I think people would say well quotas are worse than a lack of diversity but now a lack of diversity has come to be regarded as not just regrettable but as evil certainly more evil than quotas so try a quota house not having quote a working out for you academy how. `Bout You New York City schools you threaten to tear down otherwise useful institutions the tuition's because they're not diverse enough so mandate diversity. Would you rather have protest movements. Angst tension well. Maybe you would if the price of that were progress. But the point is there's been no progress quotas might be at worst a band aid solution. But guess what you use. Here's when you're bleeding you use bandaids or in the case of institutions that are failing not just our ideas but it seems like are minimal requirements. They might want to try a quota. And that's it for today show. Daniel schrader produces the gist. He's thirsty but he likes something. Effervescent try Suda and he wants to harness the power of the forest but needs a mentor. Try Yoda the gist. We need to cast a crackly sad sack character actor who can play both Jewish and Italian both comedy and drama driver Goethe Predappio do Peru and thanks for listening.

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Democracy Group Special Episode. Democracy Reform

How Do We Fix It?

30:05 min | 1 year ago

Democracy Group Special Episode. Democracy Reform

"How will the current pandemic change our democracy? Will we end up being less divided? And what might happen to the twenty twenty election? Most of US may be absentee voters but could barriers to fool voter participation. Be Put in the way and is this moment and for more constructive civic engagement. Somehow I'm worried that it won't be or will we still have the name calling and outrage that plagues our public debate today. The Corona virus pandemic and democracy reform with four podcasters Jelica Latigo Williams Cara on Ueli meal at most and Lebron for a long time. We've understood that the economy is rigged and better. Politics is broken and it was a sense that we couldn't do anything about it but I think we now realize that the stakes are too high not to do anything about it and this is not a moment for staying silent for quite some time. Our politics has been nationalized and this could be a moment where responses are really happening at the state and local level to denationalising nationalized politics. Our show is about fixes. Yeah how to make the world a better place? How do we fix it? How do we fix? It is now part of the Democracy Group. A new network of eleven podcast about civic engagement and Democracy Reform and Richard. You've been very involved with the Group. And you hosted a special episode for them on how. The pandemic is changing the debate over political reform. Tell me a little bit about the four podcasters. You brought together for this particular episode. The first of the four. Jim Is Jim Lake Latigo Williams who is the host of the award winning podcast seventy million which is about the impact of prisons and jails and the lives of local people as well as the impact of the criminal. Justice System Cara Ueli is associate director of the James Madison Center for Civic Engagement at James Madison University. She's the host of democracy matters. Lee Druckman is an author researcher and a guest on a recent episode of. How do we fix it? Is Newest Book is breaking the two party doom loop Lee as the co host of the podcast politics in question and Maaleh atmos- also joins us. She's a columnist and host of future hindsight a podcast on civic engagement so the podcast produced for the democracy group. But here you've taken. Some pretty in depth excerpts from that and we'll be back to discuss those after the show. Yeah and maybe even debate them to here we go. Democracy is very much a group activity inside. We come together to debate to discuss. Do the work of government and make laws outside at least sometimes we protest and hold rallies but much of this is not possible right now. Social distancing presents a tremendous challenge to the work of people who wanted to reform democracy in this episode. We're going to look at the barriers and the opportunities as we deal with the Cova pandemic I'm Richard Davies Co host of the weekly Solutions Journalism. Podcast how do we fix it and joining me are four other podcasters and colleagues in the Democracy Group podcasting network first Cara as the associate director of the James Madison University for Civic Engagement? You're very much involved in this whole question of democracy reform. So how do you see this strange moment that we find ourselves in? Thank you so much. Certainly this is going to be a defining or key inflection point in our democracy and and in our society you know we already knew before this crisis that we had high levels of socioeconomic and racial inequalities in our society and. I'm concerned about how this will exacerbate those inequalities and who has access to policy and decision making processes So that's one thing You know we are. We are really trying to think about is. How do we in a time of physical distancing? How do we ensure that we can be more inclusive of voices who traditionally have not been at the table and may at this time be be struggling even more In terms of in terms of access this is a pretty broad question. So anybody else want to jump in. Sure I'm happy to chime in. It's something that as someone who's been working in criminal justice reform for over four years. I think about a lot which is about how incomplete our democracy is because we are really comfortable with having you know two million plus citizens and residents and people who would be contributing to our democracy just completely away this enfranchise on able to vote even when they do return. They're still denied. The right to participate fully in our democracy through the vote. And so I feel like Kovin the pandemic the fact that we have had to rethink what it means to be. Active in our democracy making has really brought to bear nudges. The inequities inequalities but also been assessed city to have a much more active sense of democracy as a verb democracy. I an action that we can all be part of Lee. Drop in your recent article you talk. About how hyper partisanship has made the coordination of a national response to the cove pandemic so much more difficult. Well if you look at the fights that trump has been having with the Democratic Governors normal time you would expect the governors and the president to work together for the country frankly to come together and unify. But this moment has I think exacerbated a lot of the divisions that are already tearing our politics apart. I think the fact that this virus has hit urban areas Macharia than rural areas so far has has played dangerously on the urban rural divide Which is also a partisan divide and I think the partisan divide over trust in expertise in science has made this. Salat worse than it certainly needed to be hyper partisanship is bad for our politics in many ways but in this moment it does very much deal like. It has made things much worse than I wrote a book that came out earlier this year which I talked about The two party doom loop of escalating hyper partisanship in time. I thought it was just a metaphor but now I worry that it might be all too realistic of a description. Mila how do you see this this crisis right now? It's really showing where the most severe cracks are. And by that I mean people who are going to work every day to still stock shelves or still do delivery of food where some people can shelter at home. You know people like us. We can work from home but for many people. There is no choice. I saw a picture of rush hour in New York City and the subway was totally full. So this whole crisis is affecting many people in a much more dramatic ways than others especially those who have to go to work and also in crowded cities and use public transportation. Right right right exactly and I think this is really you know one of the things where I feel like. We're starting to understand more how much we rely on them to work in these jobs and I think a lot of people would normally say. Oh you know. We don't need to pay them fifteen dollars an hour award whatever it is but now actually we should think about giving them hazard pay because if anybody is at the front line. It's these people who have to be out and about and I in contact with people every day all day so that threatens Lee Druckman to make a our partisan political environment even more divided. Yeah I certainly do. Do fear that you know. I think thinking about the broad scope of history. These moments of crisis are ultimately moment of reckoning when it's clear that the old ways were flawed like a a rotten door that the corona viruses just kicked in. But we need a new door to replace it so there is this moment of opportunity to do some big rethinking. I think that's why these conversations are so important essential to be having and yet you know in the short term. I I feel very pessimistic. It's not just The polarization but it's also the fighting over voting We're going to have an incredibly contested. November election. As president trump has decided that voting by mail is somehow a bad thing even though he himself votes by mail and so states are going to be scrambling to ramp up their ability to handle a large number of the absentee ballots are there will be all kinds of inequities in that. The results could be disputed. Care this this voting crisis this threat to the election of two thousand eight hundred twenty. Is that something you're dealing with on your podcast? Democracy matters yes. There are a lot of questions and I think this this also goes back to the hyper partisan nature of our political context because now when we talk about vote by mail for example. We're already seeing that just saying those words has now a partisan context and a partisan meaning. Right there's already been The politicization and and of this question and I think we're also going to need to talk about questions about how we are going to get the right information to people I work most directly with students. Which are traditionally low turnout. Population and students also tend to be privileged. At least most of them do in the sense that they have the choice to vote either where they go to school Or wherever they're quote unquote permanent address. May Be Right. So there's there's already you know some disparities there in terms of trying to get them the correct information Creek Technical Information and then we also have you know the motive you know. We have to overcome motivational barriers to voting Because they don't necessarily see themselves represented in the process. But we're seeing a lot more challenges to ensuring full participation JALAYTA's podcast seventy million is all about what's broken inside our prison and criminal justice system here in the US. Tell US Jim Laker. What's changed as a result of covert nineteen? Theo things have changed. I think that unfortunately cove has really put the spotlight on the overall risk as a society that we take and because this has to do with our health right without vitality without literally with our lives. It has really put it in stark perspective. How warehousing people in confined environments in poor living conditions with lacking medical attention lacking proper nutrition that now poses a real risk to the rest of us that are incarceration systems from the local and county jails to the state jails to the Federal. Jails is now posing a massive Public Health risk to the rest of us. Were also looking at the cost right because not we're comparing you know. What is the cost of housing someone in a federal prison? It's over a hundred thousand dollars versus the cause of the student loans versus the cost of Public State University versus the cause of a training program. And so now there are people looking at the numbers. I'm saying this doesn't make fiscal stands for us to be maintaining this system. And then we sort of like pin down to for example. The epicenter of the epidemic would just New York City will look at the example of rikers island. Right so rikers. Island is a notorious jail. It's one of the worst places to be house when you are waiting trial. Now they're people now at rikers island. Who Contracted Cova by merely being unable to pay bail to go back home and await their trial that is unconscionable on one level but again it exacerbates the danger to the public health? Jill like are there examples of prison systems or jail systems that have been worse or perhaps better than others in regard to the pandemic outbreak? We have seen that counties have said okay. We're going to send you back home. You don't have to await trial you don't have to make bail. Go back home. Because you're otherwise we're GONNA put you basically in at risk forgetting this and so there hasn't been even any national guidance. Coming from the administration about how we can mitigate the potential exposure that people can have from the packing of populations in in jails and prisons another group where a covert can have catastrophic. Consequences are people who live paycheck to paycheck. Miller on future hindsight. You've been speaking with experts. Who are working to help people at the greatest risk. What are they seeing? So what they're seeing. Is that a lot of people are unbagged. I think the people who live paycheck paycheck many of them. Don't even have a bank account or many of them did not file taxes in two thousand eighteen because they made so little money So I know that if you did file in two thousand eighteen probably you have already received a twelve hundred dollar check from the government but that's basically a Ford rebate for your taxes. It's not actually I don't want to say handle but it's not actually something that just given to you and really what we need. Is we need a giant bailout. Even Berry Dillard said you know everybody just needs a bailout and everybody needs to be given the money. One of the ideas that Stephen pair had at the University of New Hampshire is to help people bank through the post office and that used to be a thing in the fifties and sixties and we could bring that back in this way. You could much easier with people who are unbagged are now actually most of the time at risk because they bank with payday lenders. You know who cashed checks for a fee and then you could drop money to them immediately in the way that you could get your rebate. Your future rebates right now for people who do have bank accounts. Those are two really constructive suggestions. We're talking about democracy in the time of covert nine thousand nine hundred a podcast series from the Democracy Group PODCAST NETWORK. I'm Richard Davies from the solutions podcast. How do we fix it? I'm joined by Miller Future. Hindsight Jovica Dante Take Williams from seventy million. Kara anway from democracy matters and Lee Druckman from the podcast politics in question. Let me throw out a question and see who answers it and that is in. What ways could this pandemic an opportunity as well as a disaster? There's a sense after a crisis that we can't go on the way that we've been going on and I think it does create a tremendous opportunity but a lot of that opportunity depends on what we do. There are these brief windows in in politics in which things seem uncertain and the range of possibilities can suddenly expand and it does feel like we are about to enter into one of those moments. I think for a long time. We've understood that the economy is rigged and unfair but it was a sense that we couldn't do anything about it and for a long time. We've understood that our politics is broken and it was a sense that we couldn't do anything about it But I think we now realize that the stakes are too high not to do anything about it and this is a moment in which a lot of people are just tremendously engaged in what's happening in the world around them because everybody realizes that what happens beyond their lives affects their lives and this is not a moment for staying silent. Yeah I'd like to add to that this delay from seventy million And it's it's for me. It's really clear that there were a whole group of American citizens who have known for decades generations in some cases and who have lived through the inequalities but who have never had the power or the position and to be able to do something about them and so we have an opportunity here to bring people to the table onto leadership positions. Who have lived through the inequalities who have found ways through just sheer resiliency to make do and to not only strive to thrive through poverty through unequal educational systems through. You know a crime bill. That's summating millions families in the United States so I think that we need to take a hard look around and find people who have become expert in solving the problems. That have come to light where I think we might become really. Wasteful is in our tendency to intellectualize things as I'm really scared about a lot of millions of dollars being spent on studies and Research and trying to understand the psychological emotional impact. All of that is really really important. But it's not. It doesn't rank in my in my opinion compared to restoring people and making them whole again and making sure that they get past coded and landing a better place. Let me ask Karen to respond your with James Madison University Center for Civic Engagement. How do you react to what Jill ICA said? I completely agree with with much of what Jessica said and I was also going to provide another perspective. You know for for quite some time. Our politics has been nationalized. And this could be a moment where responses are really happening at the state and local level to de nationalize politics. This is an opportunity to bring local leaders into that decision making process to include communities who have traditionally been left out. Good evidence that when we look at local politics public opinion on on on a number of issues aren't as polarized as they are at the national level. You know I see this as an opportunity to de-politicize some of those questions as well as bringing others into the conversations and into decision making positions meal atmos- of future hindsight. How do you see the the the potential for opportunities from this crisis? Well there's so many opportunities right. I think one of the things that we really have an opportunity with which I was really surprised buys is an housing the homeless because that is an extremely vulnerable population that we have not paid attention to at all but in the last stimulus bill and the cares act. There was four billion dollars allotted to housing the homeless whereas just you know a few months ago we were rounding them up and imprisoning them depending on where you live. So I think that's really important and I think if he can make strides in having more funding for housing. That would be terrific so we are talking about the impact of covert on civic engagement and political change. And I just wondered whether there's anything from this crisis any of you. That surprised you. Yeah I feel egg and of course. I didn't know this until it happened. I feel like I actually had a level of immigrant naivete about the power of my adopted country. I came to the states when I was ten with my parents seeking the American dream and I have to to every extent possible attain that I have a world class education. I own my own business. I live a middle class existence. I'm so I feel like the the notion that you can make it the US if you work as hard really really shape who. I am except up until the point that I saw nurses who couldn't have protective equipment except to the point that I heard from my friends who couldn't go bury their their siblings so their own coils of their parents except until the point where people are being found debt in apartments because in my home city of New York we grew up. It has completely shattered my standards of the not even the might but the will of the United States to be a great nation and that to me has been completely heartbreaking because I bought into it I bought into and I worked through college through Grad School. But you know like did all of the things that made all of the sacrifices that you're supposed to make so that then you come out on the other side with kind of existence that strengthens the country right and this has completely up. Ended my sense of that ideal. It's very profound response. Anyone else want to add to that this is Eli. I think what was really surprising to me is the sheer incompetence of the government. Because I thought you know trump really really wants to win reelection and I thought that because of it he would mount a government response. That is so forceful and so good. That people would have no choice but to him again and it would be one of those things where it was a side effect. You know a side effect of him wanting to win the election that he would have a proper response and I. It's incredibly infuriating And sad and everything that lake is saying. It's so true with her. So many stories and I have to say that as an Asian American to now live in an environment where Asian Americans are being attacked. Because everybody thinks that we're Chinese and were not obviously all Chinese. It's really scary. I didn't think I was going to see this kind of time in my life that was meal atmos- from future hindsight we also heard from Kara Who is the host of the podcast? Democracy matters leader Upman from politics. In question and Jill ACL Antigua Williams host of seventy million podcast about jails prisons and the criminal justice system and now our conversation. Well Richard I crystal ball. I thought it was a really interesting Roundup of us. There wasn't a lot of ideological diversity in the group but a lot of smart thinking and I think it a strange way. A certain amount of optimism even in these dark times. I'm struck by how raw the emotions are you know Jim. The pandemic is still shocking in its scope and impact and we're still fighting out how. Kovic might affect society in in many different ways and this debate over inequality I think is is very much louder. And it's not at all clear whether the result will be true reform or perhaps chaos. I don't think it's going to be chaos and but I think these conversations are long overdue disparities. We're seeing in terms Because of socioeconomic conditions are really a wakeup call and a number of interesting points. Came out one was the problems of the UNE banked. You know we're trying to get all this money out in a hurry. Well how do you get money to people who don't have bank accounts? It's it's not just incompetence it's actually hard to do. The idea of setting ended up in post offices. This show may be in the first time. I've heard the word. Us Postal Service. And using the same sentence. I I'm not saying it's a bad idea but I. I'm not sure it's something that's going to be as easy as flipping a light switch and it may not be the only way to approach that problem. Richard Haas of the council on Foreign Relations predicts the pandemic will not change the basic direction of history. So much as to accelerate it and perhaps that could also happen in politics. Although I sure hope not because I think what's really needed is far less Partisanship than we've had in the past and also a greater attention to the needs of people who've been left out by the system. That idea came up that we need to D- nationalize our politics and this has come up before on on. How do we fix it? There's so much can happen at a local or state level and the voices. I'm hearing on this issue. They go both ways. They say we want the federal government to do everything and then they say. Oh my gosh you know. It's so much better. When people who actually know conditions on the ground are in charge? We need some combination of a competent federal government which unfortunately often don't have today but also some respect for local variation not every state to respond to this In the same way and it's not helpful when people look at the country and they divided into sort of red states and blue states and they kind of pick teams and they're almost rooting for the other team to fail. And I think that's UNAMERICAN and I think we should be looking for solutions together. We shouldn't be judging people. I buy what party. They're in right. And one hopeful note to end with perhaps is that great crises can change the rules of the game and our attitudes about what is possible in our politics much more quickly than we might expect. Yeah I like that idea that you know. A crisis can open a window of opportunity. I would have added that those ideas don't all have to be ideas from the left. You know there's an awful lot that we're learning right now about the way well intentioned regulations have actually crippled us in our response you know it was so hard to get lot of people out there because of very well intentioned. Fda rules that they were slow to relax or when you know. Distilleries started trying to make their own alcohol based hand sanitizers. They were shut down for a while by the FDA again rules. It made sense in sort of peace time. That didn't make sense in this kind of pandemic war-time so there's a lot that maybe we can do. Including loosing up rules and make it hard for poor people marginalized people immigrants to get jobs and start businesses so I think the right and the left. Maybe they should stop fighting so much and come together and they might agree on more than they think about where. Maybe we need new rules in some areas but maybe we should be relaxing regulations and other areas gem. You may be shocked by this but I'm GonNa leave the final word to you. That never happened this. How do we fix it? I'm Richard Davies and I'm Jim. Eggs and our producer is Miranda Schaefer where production of Davies content. Check out what we can do to make your podcast sound better. Davies CONTENT DOT COM. Thanks for listening to this. Podcast is part of the democracy group.

Democracy Group Lee Druckman Richard Davies United States Jim Laker New York City Group Jill ICA Democracy Reform associate director rikers island president trump Jelica Latigo Williams Cara James Madison Center for Civic Cara Ueli James Madison University for C Ueli
Civic Engagement, Social Distancing, and Democracy Reform

Future Hindsight

37:28 min | 1 year ago

Civic Engagement, Social Distancing, and Democracy Reform

"Hi There My name is Katy de Fiori and I am the network manager for Democracy Group. Podcast network this is a special episode from the Democracy Group which the show you are. Currently listening to is a proud member of the podcasts. In our network strive to uncover what is broken in our democracy and find ways to fix it to discover all of our shows and learn more about the democracy group. Please visit us at Democracy Group DOT ORG. Democracy is very much a group activity inside. We come together to debate to discuss. Do the work of government and make laws outside at least sometimes we protest and hold rallies but much of this is not possible right now. Social distancing presents a tremendous challenge to the work of people who wanted to reform democracy in this episode. We're going to look at the barriers and the opportunities as we deal with the coveted pandemic. I'm Richard Davies Co host of the weekly Solutions Journalism. Podcast how do we fix it and joining me are four other podcasters and colleagues in the Democracy Group podcasting network meal atmos- of Future Hindsight Delake Allante Gua Williams from seventy million? Kara Ueli of democracy matters and Lee drop men from politics in question first Cara as the associate director of the James Madison University for Civic Engagement. You're very much involved in this whole question of democracy reform. So how do you see strange moment that we find ourselves in? Thank you so much Richard. I'm this is. This is indeed a very extraordinary moment in time Certainly this is going to be a defining or key inflection point in our democracy and our society. I think there's a couple of different points That that I have been contemplating thinking about I already knew before this crisis that we had high levels of socioeconomic and racial inequalities in our society and I'm concerned about how this will exacerbate those inequalities and especially as we think about inequities in access voice and participation in governance and who has access to policy and decision making processes So that's one thing that you know we are. We are really trying to think about is. How do we in a time of physical distancing? How do we ensure that we can be more inclusive of voices who traditionally have not been at the table And and May at this time be be struggling even more In terms of in terms of access this is a pretty broad question. So anybody else want to jump in. Sure I'm happy to chime in. It's something that as someone who's been working in criminal justice reform for over four years. I think about a lot Which is about how incomplete our democracy is because we are really comfortable with having two million plus citizens and residents and people who would be contributing to our democracy just completely away disenfranchise on able to vote even when they do return. They're still denied. The right to participate fully in our democracy through the vote. And so I feel like Kovin the pandemic the fact that we have had to rethink what it means to be active in our democracy making has really brought to bear not just the inequities and inequalities but also been assessed city to have a much more active sense of democracy as a verb. Democracy has an action that we can all be part of Lee Droppin in your recent article entitled the Covert Nineteen. Blame game is going to get uglier. You talk about how hyper partisanship has made. The coordination of a national response to the cove pandemic so much more difficult. Do you have a few examples? Well if you look at the fights that trump has been having with the Democratic Governors I I think that's a to me striking example now in a normal time you would expect the governors and the president to work together and for the country frankly to come together and to unify. But this moment has I think exacerbated a lot of the divisions that are already tearing our politics apart. I think the fact that this virus has hit urban areas much harder than rural areas so far has has played dangerously on the urban rural divide Which is also a partisan divide and I think the partisan divide over trust in expertise and in science has made this a lot worse than it certainly needed to be. I think most countries around the world have been certainly dealing with the Virus as well but it seems like in the US. We are uniquely incapable of coming together as a country. And that's really dangerous thing hyper partisanship is bad for our politics in many ways but in this moment it does very much feel like it has made things much worse. I wrote a book that came out earlier this year which I talked about the two party. Doom loop of escalating hyper partisanship in time. I thought it was just a metaphor but now I worry that it might be all too realistic of a description. Mira how do you see this this crisis right now? So I think what the crisis has really shown as as that it is affecting people differently in different income brackets and different areas. And it's really showing where the most severe cracks are and by that I mean people who are going to work every day to still stock shelves or still do delivery of food where some people can shelter at home. You know people like us. We can work from home but for many people. There is no choice. I saw a picture of just maybe a week and a half ago at rush hour in New York City and the subway was totally full because they have distanced out the service because there aren't a lot of people on the subway but so come rush hour the same people who are still going to work in that capacity still in those capacities rather they still have to go and so they can't wait twenty minutes for the next train that normally arrives at rush hour every three minutes and now they have to all jam in so this whole crisis is affecting many people in much more dramatic ways than others especially those who have to go to work and also in a crowded cities and use public transportation. Right right right exactly and I think this is really one of the things where I feel like. We're starting to understand more how much we rely on them to work in these jobs and I think a lot of people would normally say. Oh you know. We don't need to pay them fifteen dollars an hour. Whatever it is but now actually we should think about giving them hazard pay because if anybody is at the front line and these people who have to be out in about an iron contact with people every day all day so that threatens Lee Druckman to make a are partisan political environment even more divided when this pandemic or at least the very worst parts of this pandemic are over. Yeah I certainly Do do fear that you know I think in some ways I want to kind of link this to the first question that you asked to in the this idea that a lot of things that we have tolerated in our society have become intolerable. The the level of fairness in injustice in inequalities. I think I've been certainly laid bare and thinking about the broad scope of history. These moments of crisis are ultimately moments of reckoning. When it's clear that the old ways were flawed. And you know it's like a a rotten door that the macaroni viruses just kicked in. But we need a new door to replace it so there is this moment of opportunity to kind of do some big rethinking. I think that's why these conversations are so important and essential to be having. It's it's a rare moment in which I think ideas and actions can a matter and and yet you know in the short term. I I feel very pessimistic. It's not just The polarization But it's also the fighting over voting We are going to have an incredibly contested. November election. As president trump has decided that voting by mail is somehow a bad thing even though he himself votes by mail and so states are going to be scrambling to to ramp up their ability to handle a large number of the absentee ballots are there will be all kinds of inequities in that. The results could be disputed so short term. I think we're in for even more K. Awesome my hope. Is that long term. That chaos leads to a fundamental rethinking where we can think about these injustices that we've been discussing here and many others have been discussing. Certainly I can't think of a time in which we've had as much awareness of the the injustices in our society as in this moment. Kara this this voting crisis threat to the election of two thousand twenty. Is that something you're dealing with on your podcast? Democracy matters yes we we are Were actually in the process right now and we'll have an episode out soon about the question of voting and the different options that are going to be available different contingencies that that we should be thinking through And so that is in the works and so stay tuned on that You know I think there are a lot of questions and I think this this also goes back to the hyper partisan nature of our political context. Because you know whereas you know we had already so now when we talk about vote by mail for example. We're already seeing that just saying those words has now a partisan context in a partisan meaning right Although there even though there is new research out just this week From Andrew Hall and and the Stanford Democracy and polarization lab Suggesting that when they look at county level results You know that there isn't a partisan you know a partisan advantage to one party or the other on when we're thinking about that but when you look at the media conversation right And and sort of the the conversation. The political class There's already been Politicization And and of this question and so that is A. I think that is deeply concerning I think we're also going to need to talk about questions about how we are going to get the right information to people I work most directly with students which are traditionally low turnout population And students also tend to be privileged. At least most of them do in the sense that they have the choice to vote either where they go to school Or wherever they are quote unquote permanent address. May Be Right. So there's there's already you know some disparities there in terms of trying to get them the correct information CR- technical information and then we also have the mode of wet overcome motivational barriers to voting Because they don't necessarily see themselves represented in the process So so there are. There are hurdles there as there are hurdles for for other traditionally marginalized and underserved groups Particularly when we're talking about representation and so but we're seeing these questions You know take on what we're seeing a lot more challenges to ensuring full participation and in this moment because of the hyper partisanship and so I see. This moment is sort of different from from other moments in history in that sense of you know instead of really coming together were being torn apart and part of that is wrapped up in You know what what lease already talked about. In terms of the partisan nature of the blame game But But but also in terms of how we saw the initial rollout and response and Shane Guderian and others Also have some new research out just showing how there's much more anxiety. Among Democratic voters traditionally Democratic voters Minority groups Younger generations and that they are responding and following health guidelines versus those Who are now more aligned with the Republican Party which tend to be older white male speaking of marginalized groups That you mentioned Cara Jamaica's podcast seventy million is all about. What's broken inside our prison and criminal justice system here in the US tell US JAMAICA? What's changed as a result of covert nineteen? Thank you for the question. I really appreciated A few things have changed. I think that unfortunately covert has really put the spotlight on the overall risk society that we take and because this has to do with our health right without vitality without literally with our lives has really put it in stark perspective how warehousing people in confined environments in poor living conditions with lacking medical attention lacking proper nutrition that now poses a real risk to the rest of us right. So that's a at the very top level of what code has brought to light bad? Our incarceration systems because there are multiple systems that played. There isn't a singular system but that the interplay of the systems in the United States from the local in county jails to the state jails to the federal jails is now posing a massive Public Health risk to the rest of US. And so that that's on level one on level two were also looking at the cost right because not we're comparing you know. What is the cost of housing someone in a federal prison? It's over a hundred thousand dollars right versus the cause of the loans versus the cost of a public state university versus the cause of training program. And so now there are people looking at the numbers and saying this doesn't make fiscal sense for us to be maintaining this system and then we sort of like pin down to for example the epicenter of the epidemic. Just New York City will look at the example of rikers island right so rikers island's notorious jail. It's you know one of the worst places to be house when you are waiting trial. Now they're people now at rikers island. Who contracted coverted by mealy being unable to pay for bail to go back home and await their trial that is unconscionable on one level but again it exacerbates the danger to the public health. Jill like are there examples of prison systems or jail systems that have been worse or perhaps better than others in regard to the pandemic outbreak? So I can tell you that one governor. I believe it was the governor of Indiana. He used his clemency power to release four hundred fifty two people who had a mere months to serve their sentences and so he commuted their sentences and he was able to send them home. There were other places in specific counties and again on the local level. We haven't seen any action on the federal level but on the local level we have seen that counties have said okay. We're going to send you back home. You don't have to await trial you don't have to make bail. Go back home. Because you're otherwise we're GONNA put you basically in at risk for getting this and so there hasn't been even any national guidance coming from the administration about how we can mitigate the potential exposure that people can have from the packing of populations in in jails and prisons another group where a covert can have catastrophic. Consequences are people who live paycheck to paycheck. Miller on future. Hindsight you've been speaking with experts. Who are working to help people at the greatest risk. What are they seeing? So what they're seeing. Is that a lot of people are unbagged. I think the people who live paycheck to paycheck. Many of them don't even have a bank account or many of them did not file taxes in two thousand eighteen because they made so little money So I know that if you did file in two thousand eighteen probably you have already received a twelve hundred dollar check from the government this week earlier this week but that's basically a Ford rebate for your taxes. It's not actually. Don't want to say handout. But it's not actually something that just given to you and really what we need is we need a giant bailout even Berry dillard today said you know everybody just needs a bailout and everybody needs to be given the money and then we can figure out how to pay for it because with twenty two million people unemployed officially and there are many more. Were just basically free falling into the abyss. One of the ideas that Stephen pair had at the University of New Hampshire is to help people bank through the post office and that used to be a thing in the fifties and sixties and we could bring that back in this way you could much easier with people who are unbagged. Were now actually most of the time at risk because they bank with payday lenders. You know who cashed out checks for a fee and then you could drop money to them immediately. In the way that you could get your rebate. Your future rebates right now for people who do have bank accounts. I think that'll be really efficient. I also spoke to the managing director of give directly which is an outfit a nonprofit organization that gives cash transfers normally in Kenya. But they have done a lot of work here after the hurricanes and Texas and Puerto Rico and they gave them gift cards basically or cash cards for fifteen hundred dollars and so this is really hoping to catch people who are on banked and don't have access to the twelve hundred dollars from the government. Those are two really constructive suggestions. We're talking about democracy in the time of Kovic. Nineteen a podcast series from the democracy group. Podcast network I'm Richard Davies. From the solutions podcast. How do we fix it? I'm joined by meal. Outmost of future hindsight Chileka Lak- Latigo Williams from seventy million. Kara from democracy matters and Lee Druckman from the podcast politics in question. Let me throw out a question. See Who answers that and that is in. What ways could this pandemic be an opportunity as well as a disaster? I'll I'll answer this. I think it can be a tremendous opportunity as I was saying before I think if we look at from the long scope of history a that disasters have been moments of of reckoning and rethinking. And there's a sense after crisis that we can't go on the way that we've been going on and I think it does create a tremendous opportunity but a lot of that opportunity depends on what we do there. Are these brief windows in in politics. In which things seem uncertain and the range of possibilities can suddenly expand and it does feel like we are about to enter into one of those moments. I think for a long time. We've understood that the economy is rigged and unfair but it was a sense that we couldn't do anything about it and for a long time. We've understood that our politics is broken and it was a sense that we couldn't do anything about it but I think we now realize that the stakes are too high not to do anything about it and this is a a moment in which a lot of people are just tremendously engaged in what's happening in the world around them because everybody realizes that what happens beyond their lives affects their lives and this is not a moment for staying silent. Yeah I'd like to add to that this delay from seventy million And it's it's for me. It's really clear that there were a whole group of American citizens who have known for decades generations in some cases and who have lived through the inequalities but who have never had the power or the position to be able to do something about them and so we have an opportunity here to bring people to the table onto leadership positions. Who have lived through the inequalities who have found ways through just sheer resiliency to make do and to not only strive to thrive through poverty through unequal educational systems through. You know a crime. Bill that decimated millions of families in the United States. So I think that we need to take a hard look around and find people who have become experts in solving the problems. That have come to light where I think we might become really. Wasteful is in our tendency to intellectualize things as I'm really scared about a lot of millions of dollars being spent on studies and Research and trying to understand the psychological emotional impact. All of that is really really important. But it's not. It doesn't rank in my in my opinion compared to restoring people and making them whole again and making sure that they get past cove it and landed a better place because there will be another. Kovic that their foul she has been telling us for fifteen years to get ready for something like this and he has already told us that this is going to happen again and so we have to ensure that no American family feels the intensity of an earth showering event that like this one way that millions of them are feeling it right now and we have to do that by putting people at the frontline who have been at the front line and not spending precious resources. I mean today. I learned that our bill has already been defy. It's like it's already gone. We spent three hundred fifty billion dollars in two weeks. You know my business got fifty five hundred dollars out of that. That's going to help me through exactly one month. You know and so I am. Also one of those people who is experiencing the fact that the system that I've been paying into cannot now support me adequately and so we've got to ensure that families small businesses students people who are homeless everyone. On the periphery of the middle class dynamic. That makes the country. Run does not experience something like this. The way that they've experienced that. Now let me ask Cara to respond your with the James Madison University Center for Civic Engagement. How do you react to what Jill ICA said? I completely agree with with much of what Chileka said and I was also going to provide another perspective In his response in terms of seeing opportunities and that is you know for for quite some time our politics has been nationalized and this could be a moment where responses are really happening at the state and local level to D- nationalize politics. This is an opportunity to bring local leaders into that decision making process And to include communities who have traditionally been left out and again you know I think just kind of building onto Lakers point to to bring them to the table In ways that that they have not been included in the past. I think that would also have the chance of of addressing and I you know this might be too pollyannish of you but we do. We do have good evidence that when we look at local politics. Public opinion on on a number of issues aren't as polarized as they are at the national level. I see this as an opportunity to de-politicize some of those questions as well as bringing others into the conversations and and into decision making positions me were atmos- of future hindsight. How do you see the potential for opportunities from this crisis? Well there's so many opportunities rights. I think one of the things that we really have an opportunity with which I was really surprised by is an housing. The homeless because that is an extremely vulnerable population that we have not paid attention to at all but in the last stimulus bill and the cares act. There was four billion dollars allotted to housing the homeless whereas it just you know a few months ago we were rounding them up and imprisoning them depending on where you live. So I think that's really important and I think if he can make strides in having more funding for housing. That would be terrific. You know be started basically right with the Reagan administration when he basically cut the budget the federal budget for housing by ninety nine percent. And we're still suffering the fallout today. Most of the homeless our the working poor you know they have jobs but they live in shelters or they live in hotels and so many hotels have been. I have heard on the radio. In several areas converted to house the homeless and picking up on Chara's point Lee Druckman. What about the opportunity for politics to be played out more positively at a local and state level? Well I mean certainly. It's the case that local and state politics to the extent that the issues are truly local state issues. Tend to not fall into the predictable. Democrat Republican polarization. That happens at the national level. There is certainly the possibility that we go back to politics. That is more state and local However one of the things that I've noticed that over the last several years in certainly This has become the case in response to Cova crisis. Is that democratic? Governors Democratic states tend to all have one response in Republican. Governors in Republican states tend to to move in tandem as well and you know all the things that somewhat is the extent to which we might see states kind of. I mean there's always been this tension between federalism. The party within federalism in the party that is in the White House tends to want stuff to be done. The National Level Party. That's out of the White House tends to be whilst has to be dug the local state level and you know this fight between the democratic governors and president trump it picks up on a lot of other trends of state attorney general's binding together in partisan ways in so Seems like it's IT'S A. It's a forum shifting on some of these crucial policies and I just seems like a lot of these local things devolve into the local level. Doesn't necessarily reduce polarization it. It just makes the level of power question polarized question and yet there have been other examples though of Republican governors of say Massachusetts Maryland and Ohio. Who have not responded at all in lockstep to the White House or even to other Republican governors so there have been exceptions to that right. Yeah certainly I mean. Massachusetts at Maryland are both basically democratic states with Republican governors. Who are basically a moderate Republicans who probably would fit more in line with the National Democratic Party than the Republican Party? Ohio Dewine is kind of the exception among somewhat mainstream republican governors so we are talking about the impact of covered on civic engagement and political change. And I just wondered whether there's anything from this crisis any of you. That surprised you. That has come about that that in either a good or a terrible way. The you really didn't expect even even a few weeks ago. Yeah I feel like and of course. I didn't know this until it happened. I feel like I actually had a level of immigrant naievety about the power of my adopted country. I came to the states when I was ten with my parents seeking the American dream and I have to to every extent possible attain. Dad I have a world class education. I own my own business. I live in middle class existence. I'm so I feel like the the notion that you can make it in the US if you work as hard really really shaped who. I am except up until the point that I saw nurses who couldn't have protective equipment except until the point that I heard from my friends who couldn't go bury their their siblings so there uncles of their parents except until the point where people are being found dead in apartments because in my home city of New York where I grew up it has completely shattered my sense of the not even the might but the will of the United States to be a great nation and that to me has been completely heartbreaking because I bought into it I bought into it and I worked through college through Grad School. But you know like did all of the things that made all of the sacrifices that you're supposed to make so that then you come out on the other side with a kind of existence that strengthens the country right and this has completely upended my sense of that ideal that I bought into and worked so hard for. So it's been it's been difficult. It's really difficult to to deal with that as someone who is still striving as someone who has an eight and ten year old. Who wants them to have way more than she was able to attain herself? That's a very profound response. Anyone else want to add to that. This is Neil. I think what was really surprising to me is the sheer incompetence of the government. Because I thought you know trump really really wants to win re election and I thought that because of it he would mount a government response. That is so forceful and so good. That people would have no choice but to elect him again and it would be one of those things where it was a side effect. A side effect of him wanting to win the election that he would have a proper response and I. It's incredibly infuriating and sad and everything that delay guys saying so true. There are so many stories and I have to say that as an Asian American to now live in an environment where Asian Americans are being attacked. Because everybody thinks that we're Chinese and were obviously all-chinese. It's it's really scary. I didn't think I was gonna see this kind of time in my life before we finish our podcast. I want to just ask you about the impact of this crisis on organizing whether it's protests or whether it's just bringing people together Cara from democracy matters how. How would you respond so it? It has most certainly impacted the way we we organize as I look at the issues. I most directly involved in This year I'm I'm a commissioner on the Virginia State Complete Count Commission for the two thousand twenty census and so- organizaing around ensuring a complete count in the twenty twenty cents this which will affect political representation for the next decade which will affect the distribution of federal funds to state and local communities You know this. This crisis has profoundly affected our ability to reach people to explain why the sunsets matters to get people to to complete the census and especially students with whom I work at James Madison University on the other hand voting has also become much more challenging as well reaching students. In that way I think we use in person Programming and communication in so many ways you know. I think I for one had taken that for granted in a lot of ways at the same time you know we we. We do a lot of organizing on social media And through group chats. And so but I think this has revealed that that that is just it's not sufficient right That the social networks and digital interaction is just is just not enough and that we do really need to have that social connection In order to have our voices heard. And so I. I think that's one thing coming out of this That we WANNA innovate. We want to be able to reach. People in in new and different ways. you know we. We've had virtual town halls planned with political leaders and debates ahead of elections here in Virginia. And we've moved those online. But it's it's just not the same as as as being in person and and I think it's something that we're all longing for and and missing during this time and and I'm hoping that we'll be able to return to that sooner rather than than later. It's a good way to end. Cara on Ueli from democracy matters Lee Druckman from politics in question Dzaleka Land Viggo Williams from seventy million meal atmos- from future hindsight. Thanks for joining me. I'm Richard Davies. We've been talking about democracy in the time of Kovic. Nineteen a series from the democracy group. Podcast network thanks for joining us. This podcast is part of the democracy group.

Democracy Group US Lee Druckman Cara Jamaica Chileka Lak- Latigo Williams Richard Davies Kara Ueli New York City Kovic president Republican Party rikers island Jill ICA trump Ohio Katy de Fiori James Madison University for C White House James Madison University Indiana
Editors Picks: October 12th 2020

The Economist: Editor's Picks

24:44 min | 7 months ago

Editors Picks: October 12th 2020

"When you need your bank capital, one is right in the palm of your hand. So you can check your balance deposit checks, pay bills, and transfer money from your phone with a top rated APP and when you're done banking, put it back in your pocket, a banking experience built around you and your life. This is banking reimagined, get started online anytime what's in your Wallet Capital One and a member FDIC. It's Monday the twelfth of October twenty twenty. I'm Rosie blow editor of eighteen, forty, three, the economists system magazine. Welcome to editor's picks where you can hit three highlights read aloud from the Economist. This week our cover story in Asia, looks ahead to the monster listing of aunt group China's largest Fintech firm. Ans- right shares how the global financial system is being transformed. Our other cover story assesses the economic consequences of the pandemic. More than a million people worldwide have died from corona virus and it's caused the welds economies to diverge, but it's long term impact will be even more far-reaching. and. Finally, Lexington our column on American politics is on the election miniature in a small town in Pennsylvania. The stories you're about to hear are just a sample of what's on offering economists this week with subscription you can read or listen to all of what we do including regular content from eighteen forty three. Go to a communist dot com slash podcast of your best introductory rate. The link is in the show aches. Stop on the March and Group and the rise of. Digital Finance. In thirteen hundred or so Marco Polo of Venetia Merchant introduced Europeans to a monetary marvel witnessed in China. The emperor he wrote causes the Bark of trees made into something like paper to pass for money all over his country. Eventually, the West also adopted paper money some six centuries after China invented it. More recent foreign travelers to China have come back Agog at the next big step for money. The total disappearance of paper replaced by pixels are thrown screens. China's preeminence in digital money is likely to be on display in the next few weeks with the monster listing of aunt group, its largest fintech firm in Hong, Kong and Shanghai. Measured by cash raised, it will probably be the biggest initial public offering in history beating Saudi Aramco's last year once listed and which was formed in two thousand and four could have a similar value to J. P. Morgan Chase. The world's biggest bank which traces its roots to seventeen, nine, thousand nine. Aunts rise worries hawks in the White House and then throws global investors. It portends a bigger transformation of how the financial system works not just in China but around the world. Jamie. Diamond J. P. Morgan's boss and others have kept a wary and admiring I on and for years. Spun off from Alibaba an ECOMMERCE firm. It has over one billion users mostly in China and it's payments network carried sixteen trillion dollars of transactions. Last year connecting eighty million merchants payments adjust the appetizer uses can borrow money choose from six thousand investment products and buy health insurance. Imagine if Main Street Banks Wall Street's brokers Boston's asset managers and Connecticut's insurers all shrunk to fit into a single APP designed in Silicon Valley that almost everyone used. Other Chinese firms notably ten cent which owns the we chat. APP also operate cutting edge FINTECH arms. China is not alone the pandemic has supercharged activity elsewhere alongside the surge in global ECOMMERCE and remote working there has been an accompanying boom in digital payments which have jumped by fifty two percent Advan Mo-, an American network compared with last year, and by one hundred, forty, two percent at mccarter Pago Latin American Fintech. Parisian farmers markets pizza firms, and Singaporean hawkers have upgraded their systems so they can be paid instantly without physical contact or cash. Investors sense a tectonic shift like the one that shook retailing conventional banks now account for only seventy two percent of the stock market value of the global banking and payments industry down from ninety six percent in twenty ten. If the surge in digital finance is universal the business models behind it a not. In Latin America, look out for digital banks and e commerce pioneers such as new bank and macadear libra owner of mccarter popular in south. East Asia grab and go Jack to ride hailing firms are becoming super APPs with financial arms. fintech firms now provide the majority of consumer loans in Sweden. In America credit card firms such as visa. The world's most valuable financial firm digital finance giants such as Paypal, the sixth and the big banks both cooperate and compete. Tech giants such as Apple and alphabet ought dipping their toes in tempted by the financial industry is one point five trillion dollars global pool of prophets. There is much to be excited about and it's best fintech off his big gains in efficiency. If the world's listed banks cut expenses by a third, the saving would be worth eighty dollars a year for every person on earth. And makes, Razor thin margins on payments and takes minutes to grant alone Ghana. The days of getting gouged by money changes in airports firms such as transfer wise and air will ex offer exchange services that are cheaper and faster. Digitization also promises to broaden the spread of finance reaching customers will be easier and data will make loan underwriting more accurate. Firms like square and stripe help small businesses connect to the Digital Economy In India and Africa digital finance can free people from dodgy moneylenders and decrepit banks by creating their own digital currencies. Governments may be able to bypass the conventional banking system and tax take deposits from and make payments to citizens at the touch of the button compare that to the Palaver of Uncle Sam posting stimulus checks this year. Yet, the fintech conquest also brings to risks. The first is that it could destabilize the financial system. FINTECH firm swamped to the most profitable parts of the industry, often leaving less profit and most of the risk with traditional lenders. Fully, ninety eight percent of loans issued through aunt in China ultimately sit on the books of banks which paid a fee. And is eventually expected to capture tenths or more of Chinese prophets. Lumbering lender in the rich world are already crushed by low interest rates, legacy it systems, and huge compliance costs. If they are destabilized. It could spell trouble because banks still perform crucial economic functions, including holding people's deposits and transforming the short term liabilities into long-term loans for others. The second danger is that the state and Fintech platform firms could grab more power from individuals. Network effects are integral to the fintech model. The more people use a platform, the more useful it is and likely that others feel drawn to it. So the industry is prone towards monopoly, and if Fintech gives even more data to governments and platforms, the potential surveillance manipulation and cyberattacks will rise. In China and is a cog in the communist party's apparatus of control. One reason it is often unwelcome abroad. When facebook affirm not known for its ethical conduct launched a digital currency libra. Next year, it caused a global backlash. As, the FINTECH search continues government should take a holistic view of financial risk that includes banks and FINTECH firms. Chinese regulators rightly snuffed out and booming business in loan securitization, which had echos of the subprime fiasco. Government should also barriers to entry. So as to boost competition, Singapore and India have cheap open bank to bank payment systems, which America could learn from Europe has flexible banking that lets customers switch accounts easily. Last the rise of Fintech must be tied to a renewed effort to protect people's privacy from giant companies and the state. So long as Fintech can be made safer open and respectful of individual rights than monetary. Led by China will once again changed the world for the better. When you need your bank capital one is right in the palm of your hand. So you can check your balance deposit checks, pay bills, and transfer money from your phone with a top rated APP and when you're done banking, put it back in your pocket banking experience built around you and your life. This is banking reimagined get started online anytime. What's in your wallet? Capital one and a member FDIC. Next winners and losers how covert nineteen is reordering the global economy In? February. The coronavirus pandemic struck the world economy with the biggest shock since the Second World War. lockdowns and a slumping consumer spending led to a labor market implosion in which the equivalent of nearly five hundred million full-time jobs disappeared almost overnight. World Trade Shuddered as factors shut down and countries closed their borders. An even deeper economic catastrophe was avoided. Thanks only to unprecedented interventions in financial markets by central banks government aid to workers and failing firms and the expansion of budget deficits to wartime levels. The crash was synchronized as a recovery takes place. However, huge gaps between the performance of countries are opening up, which could yet recast the world's economic order. By the end of next year according to forecasts by the O., E. C. D. America's economy will be the same size as it was in two, thousand and nineteen but China's will be ten percent larger. Europe was still languish beneath its pre pandemic level of output and could do. So for several years a fate, it may show with Japan which is suffering a demographic squeeze. It is not just the biggest economic blocks that are growing at different speeds in the second quarter of this year according to UBS bank. The distribution of growth rates across fifty economists was at its widest for at least forty years. The variation is the result of differences between countries. Most important is the spread of the disease China has all but stopped it while Europe and PAP soon, America is battling a costly second wave over the past week. Paris has closed its bars and Madrid has gone into partial lockdown. In China meanwhile, you can now down some Buca shots in nightclubs. Another difference is the pre existing structure of economies. It is far easier to operate. Under social distancing than it is to run service sector businesses that rely on face to face contact. Manufacturing makes up a bigger share of the economy in China than in any other big country. A third factor is the policy response. This is partly about size. America has injected more stimulus than Europe including spending worth twelve percent of GDP, and a one point five percentage point cut in short-term interest rates. But policy also includes how governments respond to the structural changes and creative destruction. The pandemic is causing. As special report, this week explains these. Will be immense. The pandemic will leave economies less globalized, more digitized and less equal. As they can't risks in their supply chains and harness automation manufacturers will bring production closer to home. As office workers continue to work in the kitchens and bedrooms for at least part of the week lower paid workers who previously toiled as waiters, cleaners and sales assistance will need to find new jobs in the suburbs until they do they could face long spells of unemployment. In America permanent job losses amounting even as the headline unemployment rate falls. As more activity moves, online business will become more dominated by firms with the most advanced intellectual property and the biggest repositories of data. This is boom and technology stocks gives a sense of what is coming as does the digital surge in the banking industry and low real interest rates will keep asset prices I even if economists remain weak. This will widen the gulf between Wall Street and main street that emerged after the global financial crisis and which has worsened this year. The challenge for Democratic governments will be to adapt to all these changes while maintaining popular consent for their policies and for free markets. That is not a concern for China, which so far seems to be emerging from the pandemic strongest at least in the short run, its economy has bounced back quickly. Later this month it's leaders will agree on a new Five Year, plan which emphasizes Xi. Jinping's model of high tech state capitalism and increasing self sufficiency. Yet, the virus has exposed longer-term floors in China's economic apparatus. It has no safety net worth the name and this year had to focus it stimulus on firms and infrastructure investment rather than shoring up household incomes. And in the long run it system of surveillance and state control which made brutal lockdowns. Possible is likely to impede the diffuse decision making free movement of people and ideas the sustain innovation and raise living standards. Europe is the lagarde its response to the pandemic reschedule ossified economies there rather than letting them adjust in its five biggest economies. Five percent of the force remains on short works schemes in which the government pays them to await the return of jobs or hours that may never come back. In Britain, the proportion is twice as high. Across the continent suspended bankruptcy rules tacit forbearance by banks and flood of discretion restate risk prolonging the life of Zombie, firms that should be allowed to fail. This. Is All the more worrying given that before the crisis France and Germany were already embracing an industrial policy that promoted national champions. If you're ABC's the pandemic is a further reason to nurture Z. relationship between government and incumbent businesses. It's long term relative decline could accelerate. The question mark is America for much of the year. It got the policy balanced roughly right. It provided a more generous safety net for the jobless and a larger stimulus that might have been expected in the home of capitalism. Wisely, it also allowed the labor market to adjust and shown less inclination than Europe to bailout firms that are in danger of becoming obsolete as the economy adjusts. Partly as a result, unlike Europe America is already seeing the creation of many new jobs. Instead, America's weakness is toxic and divided politics. This week President Donald trump seemed to ditch talks over renewing its stimulus meaning that the economy could fall over fiscal cliff. Critical reforms whether to redesign the safety net for tech driven economy or to put deficits on a sustainable course our orbit impossible while two warring tribes define compromise as weakness. covid nineteen is imposing a new economic reality. Every country will be called on to adapt, but America faces a daunting task. If it is to lead the post pandemic world it will have to reset. It's politics. And finally, the US election battle in miniature a modern day Alexi de Tocqueville might find talk of America's painful divisions baffling at first blush up close as Bill. Bishop, wrote in the big sort, the country has never looked more cohesive. The leafy suburbs of America's fast-growing diverse cities are so uniformly democratic. It can be hard to find two people in serious disagreement. Republicans and older less mobile group live equally clustered father out. Country is less fractured than ghettoized as is especially apparent at election time. In Lexington suburb of the national capital where Donald Trump won four percent of the vote in two thousand, sixteen local opinion is expressed in a phonics of Joe Biden Yard signs. Drive twenty minutes into the Maryland countryside, and as if some part is on border had been crossed Donald J trump signs are everywhere. Yet there are still places along the frontier where rivals coexist. One is eastern an unshowy town in eastern Pennsylvania where you're calmest went to see some weekend canvassing for the president. A former transport hub at the confluence of the Lee High and Delaware rivers. The town wants thrived on strategic site and still relies on it. It is seventy miles from both New, York and Philadelphia adjust about commutable distance, which was brought new families to the town attracted by its house prices and visitors to its main attraction. A theme park for Crayola crayons by no means rich yet not struggling hardly dynamic yet replenished by income as the town sits between socioeconomic categories and political cultures. This has helped make it one of the most contested corners of one of the most competitive states in the country. North Hampton Candy of which is the capital was one of three in Pennsylvania that flipped to the Republicans in two thousand, sixteen giving Mr Trump the state by a whisker. True. To form the quadrant of four streets around which Lexington accompanied Karen Fray and. Republican foot soldier wherein red deplorables club sweatshirt and not wearing the trump twenty twenty face mask that dangled alongside a stun gun alarm and may spray from her wrist display trump and biden signs in similar measure. They otherwise, no clue to the occupants affiliation. Outside the forty odd houses Mrs, free cooled on Virgin. Mary statue or we support our police flag was no likely to denote a republican than democratic household. At a corner of Hickory lane the occupant displayed signs supporting the police teachers and Mr Biden. We're not trump here keep walking. He yelled at Mrs Fray through his car window. The suburb is a throwback to presort America but bristling with post sort partisanship. The result is a rare microcosmic view of what partisanship is doing to America. Very few who answered the door claim to be undecided and most were probably as Mrs free conceded being kind. Only one vote expressed week feelings about her choice. I, vote for the party not attended said Lisa a lifelong Republican staunchly against abortion everyone else appeared fiercely decided. Given. Not just over half were planning to vote democratic. They see more than ever several said this gave rise to awkward scenes. I'm sorry I'm sure you're a nice person but I'm ninety two years old I voted for Republicans and Democrats, and I cannot understand how you can like him a man on Hickory Lane told Mrs Free He then launched a fact filled disarray Shin of Mr. Trump's record before ending fighting back tears on a personal note my father came from Italy trump hates migrants my five dead brothers fought for this country. The son of a bitch calls them suckers. When Mrs Fray Visiting Shaken said this was untrue the man quoted the president slander of John McCain Mrs Fray counted with a fake news story that the late Republican senator killed scores of sailors a fire God. Bless you said the old man. It multiplies said Mrs Fray enigmatically as she walked away though she knocked on at Three Thousand Dollars Twenty sixteen she did not seem used to such pushback. Modern campaigns aimed canvases almost exclusively at likely voters for their own side. She had kindly decided to knock on every door mainly as a favourite Lexington. It was also apparent from her assertions which tended to be untrue that Mrs Fray inhabited a deep realm of the trump bubble. Considering much of Fox News too liberal. She got her news from the far right one America News Network, and Epoch Times A pro-trump newspaper produced by the Fallen Gong sect that has spread the Anti Semitic Cunanan conspiracy. When she encountered a like minded voter, her relief was palpable on their doorsteps. She referred to Joe Biden as a communist and any self professed Christians who voted Democratic as Satan worshippers. Lee Druckman political scientist attributes the mutual loathing of America's political tribes to three things cultural sorting, including media bubbles, the slim margins of national elections, which makes them seem existential to both sides and the nationalization of politics which has bulldozed local concerns that once girded communities. All all evident in eastern though it's much provoked voters live cheek by jowl. What lessons does that? One is that politics exaggerates reality while several voters expressed unease about their neighbors allegiances, your columnists nothing to suggest a community anything like as divided as the political views its members expressed on a sunny Saturday morning trumpers and anti-trumps mowed lawns and walk dogs together. Outside. Elections most of them probably give politics little fort given the state of things that is consoling. Yet this election will prove harder to recover from because Republicans taking their cues from the president already trying to invalidate it. Almost misses phrase first words to your columnist were trying to win without stuffing ballots with the Republican Party. She repeatedly assured voters that mail in voting was fraudulent. This promises a new order of conflict for a society whose forbearance cannot be counted on indefinitely. Thanks for listening editor's picks. For. More from US subscribe at economists, Dot. com slash podcast offer. I'm Rosie blow and in London this is the economist.

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October Surprise: Devlin Barrett

Future Hindsight

38:37 min | 7 months ago

October Surprise: Devlin Barrett

"American politics has reached a moment of existential uncertainty with problems bigger than any one administration. My name is James Wallner and I host the podcast politics in question with Lee Druckman Julia Zari on our show, we take a step back and discuss how our political institutions are failing US ideas for fixing them in what American politics could look like if citizens questioned everything. You can find our show on spotify apple stitcher and at our website politics in question dot com. All podcasters best way to grow your show is through word of mouth. And so this season, we're try something new we created referring that makes it easy to share the podcast by text email or DM, to your friends family or anyone else you know who could use a little dose of inspiration for civic engagement and our collective future If you use the linked to share our show with five friends who then download the podcast I'll send you a handwritten. Thank you. Note and a future hindsight button to thank you for your support. If, you shared with ten friends who download an episode I'll send you a branded future hindsight Malkin notebook. Yup a real malkin notebook with logo on it. Follow the link in the show notes to help us spread the word and thank you so much for listening. Welcome to few tyneside I'm your host Milad Moss. Each week s speak with citizen change makers who sparked civic engagement in our society. Our guest today is Devlin Barrett. He's a reporter focusing on national security and law enforcement for the Washington Post and writes about the FBI and the Justice Department he's the author of. Surprise, how the FBI tried to save itself and crashed an election. This is a special bonus pre-election showed as we approach election day twenty, twenty at the end of a turbulent October our interview is a reminder that the FBI served the American public and unintended October surprise in the two thousand, sixteen election and event from which Hillary Clinton did not have the time and space to recover. Despite the best efforts of the president's is their planned October surprises. This year have failed to animate our electorate whether it's the hacked computer of Hunter Biden or the joint announcement of DNA Radcliffe and FBI Director Ray about the election interference by Russia and Iran. For. The most part Americans have already made up their minds and there's little that will change decision about who to vote for with record turn out in early warning across the US. It's unlikely that any surprise now will affect the outcome I don't really like people have any obligation to. Spend the rest of their lives trapped in two thousand sixteen. But I, do hope that people come away when the dust settles on this election with a better understanding of maybe some of the pitfalls in terms of not just the politics of the world but conspiracy theories and how ideas that are attractive to you may not be true and we need to approach everything in life with healthy skepticism. Ways in two thousand, sixteen, which you see is people can't distinguish facts from conspiracy theories. and that creates real problems. In the real world we examined the role of the bureau's Culture Hubris and institutional breakdown in bringing this about. And why twenty twenty appears to be different? Let's listen in. Thank you for joining us. Thanks for having a meal. So you tell the story about how Komi and the FBI came to deliver the October surprise of twenty sixteen that many argued derailed Clinton's presidential campaign. Why did you decide to publish a story? So I've covered the FBI as a reporter for more than twenty years and what I saw in two thousand sixteen was just incredible to me. I couldn't believe it at the time and in some ways, it became more unbelievable at after two thousand sixteen. What the F. B. I. Did got fed through political meat grinder of sorts and I think a lot of people still to this day misunderstand exactly what the FBI did and why they did it. So that's why I wanted to write the book. Why is it important for the American people to understand what happened because I think not only do people not understand but also people don't understand why they should know what happened. Right. And I think one of the ways in which the conversation got sort of off the tracks right after the election in two twenty sixteen is if people spend a lot of their time trying to figure out. Whether the FBI was trying to make one person or one party the president. But. That question actually camouflages the real reason. For what the FBI did, what coma did. and that's the combing. The FBI were primarily concerned about combing the FBI. And they prioritized those concerns. Over the election for president. And it really needs to be understood better. Because I certainly think the main institutions of government cannot endure many more elections like two, thousand, sixteen, I think it caused a lot of problems that are still with us today. And so I wanted the book to stand as a kind of maybe cautionary tale. that. These things were horrible misjudgements, horrible misunderstandings of the moment and they had. Tremendous consequences for the country. would be great if in the telling. People generally were were more aware of what happened and why and more wary of going down that road ever again. So, what is the culture at the FBI and is the role of culture and bringing about this chain of events? So I think there's two things where the work culture at the FBI really impacted the decisions they made in two thousand sixteen. The first is at the FBI is combing always called a face culture and he meant that in the sense of saving face and so the desire to avoid embarrassment at all costs. Is a really driving motivator for a lot of folks who work at the. FBI, and that's true of the lowest case agent to the director. A lot of the folks making these decisions to the FBI were very much focused on what do we do? That doesn't make us look bad. In to the part that was really important was that. that. I had never really seen candidate like, Donald. Trump. Before. If you're talking about. An organization that is so focused on saving face a very shame of culture. It was almost inconceivable to a lot of them that someone like Donald Trump who as a candidate, his basic premise of candidacy was well I'm not ashamed of anything. I've done. I'll never apologize for anything ever take back anything and shame has no meaning to me. and. So I think a lot of folks in the FBI looked at a candidate like that. Not really having any sort of personal ability to connect with that type of personality. And they thought to themselves. This guy can never win. It's impossible. And, that would be true if the only voters were, you know folks in the FBI. But I think the reality is that within the FBI, they did not perceive the degree to which that lack of shame on trump's part. Was Not a weakness. It was a selling point for him. That was part of his pitch to the American people when it came time for the FBI to make decisions, they made those decisions assuming there's no way that Donald Trump can actually win. So it's okay if we send a letter to Congress eleven days before the election because Donald Trump can't win. and. Obviously that was a huge misjudgment. Yeah, indeed a huge misjudgment I remember at the time, and this was all going down. It felt like the decision to have that weird press conference that called me head in. July. And then the subsequent reopening of the email probe in October it felt like it was just the FBI and Komi covering their assets because they fully expected Clinton to win and therefore they didn't want ever to be in hindsight any evidence that they were favouring her they had this radical transparency which actually wasn't radical or transparent in the end but talk a little bit more about that because I think that deserves some fleshing out. And you're absolutely right. There's two key events that are crucial to understanding. FBI's role in who wins the presidency at year one is as you mentioned. Komi holding a press conference in early. July. To announce that he is closing the Clinton email case he is recommending no charges and basically the case was closed. But. He did it in such a strange way and such an unusual way particularly for the FBI. That it created a set of conditions. That would be hugely consequential once it became October. And you mentioned cover ask Cya cya became a huge motivating factor for so much of what the FBI did from July to October of that year. So combing gives this press conference in July announcing his closing the Clinton email a case. And that itself was a huge departure from what how the FBI and the Justice Department supposed to work because the attorney general has no idea what he's going to say, she watches it on tv like everyone else while an intern on her first day in the FBI press. Shout actually knows what he's going to say, and that's how out of whack that whole process was. Even. Though Komi is very critical of Clinton as he announces that, he won't file any charges. What happens politically is the Republicans in Congress are very mad at him because he's not charging and the Democrats are very happy with him because he's not charging. What happens months later is that a new batch of emails are found. and. Suddenly, they have to decide what they're going to do with this. And the political dynamic that's been created around this case is that. The FBI is worried about the Republicans being mad at. But the FBI isn't worried about the Democrats being mad at them because the Democrats keep thanking FBI for their service essentially. When it comes time to decide what to do with these new emails. Combing the F. B. I feel that they have to. Do It in a way that doesn't make the Republicans to angry at them. What they come up with is this notion that they will send a letter to Congress telling them. They are reopening me investigation less than two weeks before Election Day. And in their minds, what they're doing is they're protecting the FBI from being attacked by Congressional, Republicans after Hilary is elected president because what they're really afraid of is being accused of helping Hillary get elected. That's an important distinction because they cannot imagine a universe in which donald trump is elected, and that's their you know fatal error I think in the final moment. But as you said it, it builds from July from that first press conference and the series of events that happened starting in July really leads to this larger more consequential misjudgment. One of the takeaways for me was that these human traits people wanting to say face and also covering your assets and other human trait. You know we all don't want to be blamed for something you described at the beginning of the book how the FBI transformed. Maybe there is sort of turning point where they can go back and see how we used to do this. Then how can we protect ourselves and the nation from having another monumental era like this? Absolutely and I think there's a couple of ways in which a lot of this drama and unintended consequences could have been avoided. The first is as you point out after nine eleven, the FBI completely change has an agency. It goes from being primarily law enforcement look for criminals and arrest criminals put them on trial and put them in prison. It really becomes a national security focused agency primarily that becomes it's number one goal and not just in the sense of find them and arrest them and put them on trial but disrupt terror plots before they happen. When you go years out from nine eleven. What happens is you realize that the criminal investigators who are more used to being in sort of what you might call the political fray because they arrest politicians times, they arrest people with high profile sometimes. Those folks are sort of in the back seat of the FBI and they really resent the way national security agents, people like anti McCabe. Some others are really running the show. But creates secondary problem that no one really recognizes until it's too late, which is that all those national security agents. Are just less experienced with the world politics and with the world of sort of high profile public fights. and. So when it comes time to make important decisions on these big cases, the People Komi has assembled around him. Really don't have a ton of which you might call political corruption experience or just high profile, non terrorism case experience, and so they're not really seeing. Ahead very well, the types of problems that they could encounter when dealing with something like the Clinton email case were dealing with something like the trump Russia case, and that is just a blind spot that that group has make decisions and it haunts them and you know there are folks in the FBI to this day who'll insist if you just had one or two men and women in that room. Who really came from the political corruption world who really came from the world of just criminal cases You would have had at least someone else saying Woah boss hold on. You're going to create a real problem for yourself if you do that. And the other part where this sort of goes off the rails and where you can see an alternate universe where this has handled much better as. Komi decides that only he can be trusted to make these decisions. He decides as Attorney General Loretta Lynch has compromised. His boss is basically unreliable is disturbed disturbed Komi makes. But that misunderstand basic role. That the attorney general plays, which is to take the political blame. For things that the Department of Justice does and so one of the weird ways in which this plays out is because Komi takes all the decision making upon himself. He basically absolve the attorney general of any of the decision making. But really the system is designed so that if there is you know blowback or political consequences, two things, the Department of Justice does. The place that that is supposed to fall hardest on is the attorney general. But by being so controlling comas actually put all the pressure on himself and on the FBI and I think that was very serious miscalculation to. have one of the things that really struck me in the way that you retold. This part of the story is how little? Initiative they took each one of them communicate directly with each other there would've been. So, much opportunity to actually have common ground and sharing the information. What one side was doing as opposed to the other in order to know really what's happening and determine whether it's severe or not. But one of the things that you've mentioned just now also is that if they had just had somebody with. Public Integrity Investigations background in there. Quickly determined that. The emails were. Of, no real consequence. But instead this just continued to have legs and much to the detriment of the people who were in. This. Core group surrounding Komi. Well be lead agent on the Clinton email case. At one point said, we did the Clinton email case to prove that we could do it to show that the FBI would be a thoughtful and responsible party amiss not so much because we thought there was a crime their reputation on the line and we needed to prove that we can handle it. That is arguably a pretty bad reason to open an investigation of a presidential candidate. That's the kind of let's call it nearsightedness. That happens on the national security side of the FBI sometimes. So that is part of the problem but also to your point, a lot of us did not realize the degree to which there wasn't fact a bad relationship between the head of the FBI and the head of the Justice Department. And when it got really intense for both sides, you see that that bad relationship has horrible consequences because what you see is that the FBI director isn't onto the attorney general, the Attorney General. For reasons that are still inexplicable to some folks who used to work for her is not willing are prepared to go across the street and just yell at her ordinate. Because he's being insubordinate. and. I think. That has obviously huge. So. What are the consequences of? The bureau feeling it had to prove that he could do it and also having this culture of saving face in terms of other investigations that it's conducting across the country. First and foremost is that. Congressional Republicans who used to be some of the biggest defenders of the? FBI. Are, now regular outspoken critics of the. FBI and that's a bad place obviously for any agency to be in but you need credibility if you're the FBI, your credibility is everything. And, they have through the course of two thousand sixteen. ended. Up With you know one party that is just regularly taking public shots at them and not just one party when president has rarely taking public shots. As, one former FBI employee said to me. You think he'd be grateful after what we did. But if anything he's you know even tougher on us. Consequence for all these other cases is. They have to do more work to show that they can be trusted if you get outside the cases involving politicians, FBI is still in very good shape I. Think a lot of people are willing and eager to trust the FBI in its handling of terrorism cases, financial crime cases, all manner of other cases but I think they paid a big price in terms of the political corruption piece of their work and anything that touches on politics for that matter. And I think you know as one law enforcement official said to me you know Pandora's box has been opened Comi opened it and I don't think we're ever going to get closed again. To be honest, I've talked to other folks in law enforcement. Pessimistic they think. They still can get on the right side of these issues. But there's no question that when it comes to politically sensitive investigations. The FBI is in a worst place now than it was twenty sixteen. We may have a brand new season of content to share with you but one thing is staying the same are fabulous sponsor Jordan Harbinger Jordan produces a truly stellar podcast called. You guessed the Jordan Harbinger show in my opinion almost all of the most insightful and impactful podcast I listened to our interviews and Jordan's are no exception. His conversations with guests are designed to inform and guaranteed to entertain. Making any subject, approachable and exciting as a rare skill even in the podcast field but Jordan does it well and he does it several times a week guests run the gamut from CIA spooks books to famous athletes and successful business leaders to groundbreaking scientists. You never know what you're going to get, but you do know that you'll learn something new if you like future hindsight I think you'll enjoy Jordan harbinger show to search for the door and harbinger show on apple podcasts spotify or wherever you listen to podcasts. You can also find the show at Dornan. Harbinger DOT COM. So in your mind what would it take for the FBI to rehabilitate its credibility in terms of political investigations? This is a little simplistic, but they need to stay out of the presidential race if they possibly can they need to. Show time and time again that they can be responsible on these other issues in America cares about like security like you know serious crime or major fraud. and. Leave the politics and just stay out of making decisions that affect political outcomes for a while I think the public still actually for the most part wants to trust FBI. But I think it'll take at least one presidential election that they just stay out of for that to happen. Yeah, definitely. Well, the fallout of two thousand, Sixteen Was So long right and everybody lost their job though not everybody but. The main characters who lost their jobs, right. So many of the people who touched this have lost their jobs and some of them have very different opinions as to as to why that is and how fair it is a lot of them feel like. They were unfairly attacked and criticized and I think there's a lot of truth to that. One of the ways in which twenty sixteen was really toxic and corrosive to our politics. Is We now talk about our political opponents as criminals much more easily. And frankly a lot of things that are bad aren't crimes they can just be bad in and of themselves. Both parties actually tend to talk more about their opponents as criminals than just as people disagree with people who are wrong on this policy bad policy. Yeah that's a good observation I. Think we are so removed from the way that we used to think about politicians. You know before twenty sixteen I don't think we'll ever go back there. So unlike the police were, it's much easier to demand accountability how can we as everyday citizens. Demand a better way to investigate or a better way to think about investigations. I don't even really know how to ask or what to ask for. But what should we be asking for and how could we ask for that? So I think the main way that the FBI has been. Checked. Up on or had some oversight has been congress. But one of the things we've seen in two thousand sixteen, it's only gotten I think were since is that Congress? So partisan that Congress now looking to score political points through the FBI or on the FBI and that makes it harder. For. People of good faith and good judgment. To pressure the FBI to do better, you might get. A MORE SCARED FBI. But I don't think you'll actually get a better FBI. And I think that's a real concern. But that's about Congress and you know one of the ways in which I think two thousand sixteen really goes off the rails is because. FBI REALLY DOES NOT Trust Congress not to go after that. And you see that I think in the decisions in October in July of Twenty sixteen that they have lost faith in Congress as sort of a affair partner affair boss in the process. So. If you think about a new administration next year, let's say. God willing what are the opportunities for the FBI to transform itself into an agency that is more accountable to Congress and for Congress to actually conduct oversight in a way that's regenerative and constructive. That is a conversation and that is a question that is being asked everywhere. I think in the Justice Department and everywhere in the FBI. Right now obviously, we don't know who's going to win this election. So I don't think anyone can predict the future but everyone in federal law enforcement is having some version of this conversation where they're trying to figure out. What do we do if there is a post trump world to try to pull the FBI and the Justice Department out of some of these political battles? Of all the political battles there will always be some measure of that. But it would be nice I think from the point of view of a lot of people, the Justice Department and a Lotta people in FBI. Not. Feel like. The public perception of them may or may not contribute to a constitutional crisis at any given Bob. If, we get a new administration how would you start sending signals to Congress and the? Public. That we've turned the page I'm hyper politicization of the justice. Department and FBI and we're going to start a new chapter part of that is just changing personnel I think there'll probably some interesting decisions if it comes to that about who to keep in who not to keep and some new administration. But the reality is you're still going to have a congress to deal with and you're still going to have. A lot of. Political firepower trained on you. And I think. For the next however many years the FBI is to have to prove itself in some quarters that it's not going to do the kinds of things that we did in two thousand sixteen. Maybe we get a couple more elections under our belt. People calm down a little on that front, but we'll have to say. Yeah, I might just take time. Well, we are now in October, before another presidential election and We are in full surprise mode already. One surprise after another day after day. And complete chaos in the White House. Is there another surprise that you are expecting now? If I could be a little political nerdy for a minute. You know October surprise has a very specific definition, its original definition was. Essentially some version of a dirty trick that comes so late in the election calendar. That the candidate doesn't really have time or space to respond to it and voters don't really have time or space to digest it properly and think calmly and rationally about what it means does it mean? So in that sense I think the Komi Letter in late October twenty sixteen. Is probably the most significant October surprise we've ever seen. But. By that definition something like the President Getting Corona Virus I don't think that is a classic version of an October surprise because you know that isn't something that was really done to him by a political opponent. That's just an. Surprising thing that happened in October. What have you learned from writing this book that you didn't expect? I've always been interested in the FBI I've always been interested in their work culture. But. The more I dug into twenty sixteen I realized that. Work Culture of the FBI really explained a lot more of what happened. Then, I really understood at the time. That was a big part of why I wanted to write the book because I felt like there were things going on in the FBI that were important internally to the FBI. And that to me was really interesting and really worth exploring and really were trying to explain as well as I possibly could because the consequences were so huge. I think the thing I learned is that. To, some degree people don't WanNa, revisit this stuff which is fine. I don't really show like people have any obligation to. Spend the rest of their lives trapped in two thousand sixteen. But I do hope that people come away when the dust settles on this election with a better understanding of. Maybe some of the pitfalls in terms of not just the politics of the world but conspiracy theories and how ideas that attractive to you may just not be true and you know we need to approach everything in life with healthy skepticism I came away from the book thinking we should teach more civic engagement we should teach more critical thinking. We should teach better rational analysis of facts versus. Non Facts. Because I. Think in in a Lotta ways in two thousand sixteen, which you see is people can't distinguish facts from conspiracy theories. and that creates problems in the real world. Yes definitely and it continues to well, here's my last question. Looking into the future what makes you hopeful? What makes me hopeful is just the fact that people are asking the question. What's the next October surprise to be? That is a good thing I think for the process I think people are starting to realize that the way some people get information is is not healthy. It's not actually accurate in it's not good for the system. And so what makes me optimistic is? That I think some folks have learned some good lessons from twenty sixteen. I truly hope we are all still learning some of those lessons. Just to take one example, there was a murder conspiracy theory that grew up around Democrats hacked e mails, and a drove me absolutely crazy as a reporter because I couldn't seem to convince anyone enough people I. Guess I should say that this was just some really dumb conspiracy theory. And now, actually those conversations are easier in my world. People are more willing to consider the possibility that maybe his just making stuff up. And I know in two thousand sixteen was very frustrating to me how often. People. Would sort of like you. blankly, if you said I think he's just lying. I think weirdly learning to be a little more skeptical hopefully cynical because to me cynical is falling off the edge. But I hope we're learning to have sort of a smarter skepticism about our sources of information about the implications of some of what we see here. That is where I'm optimistic that I do see a change for the better. In terms of how we think and react to some of those select. I hope you're right. People are definitely. Consuming the news differently than they used to agree that's good news but there's still a lot of belief in conspiracy theories and crazy. How can I say followers Cunanan and you're like, oh no. Don't go there. No, no, no no, I think that's absolutely true and I one of the most interesting conversations I had with someone in the course of writing the book was. A Guy who has a kid? In High School, some friend of his, you know tried to convert him to sort of like the John. Berks society just a very conspiracy late in racists set of nonsense I think is simply describe it. A, light went off in my head because of the way you described was like look this stuff is always existed in America. It's not like trump has invented the conspiracy theory Roger Stone entered a conspiracy theory. But now it's being promoted and amplified by sort of the grownups in the room meaning the president or Fox News or some of these other places. That to me was sort of a light bulb moment because I thought, we will always have conspiracy theories they will always be here with us. To me, the key issue is do people in important positions. Succumbed to them or embraced them because they're comforting in some way or people in important positions. Say you know what that stays out of the main world discussions of what life really is because we know their garbage. I don't think you're ever going to get conspiracy theories off the Internet and what was concerned me in two thousand sixteen was I. Think a lot of officials were falling for conspiracy theories and what is hopeful to me is I think more officials are getting a little more savvy. And responsible about those things. But we'll see it is a big risk and it's it's a risk to my profession I think it's risk to the government I think it's a risk to a lot of folks. Yes I do agree that there's more responsibility coming from. Elected officials and also from members of the press in not spreading more conspiracy theories around. Right and I think one of the ways in which we're all like sort of maturing a little bit is you know two or three years ago every time a new conspiracy theory cropped up online. A lot of reporters and pundits and various other officials would sort of knowingly mock it. Ten sort of tweets something with a joke on top. And the reality is you're just a carrier for what I think of is like a brain virus dunking on stuff may make you feel good temporarily that may give you a little dopamine rush but you're which are actually doing is you're spreading ally even when you're talking on something. So the responsible things to just ignore it. And I think that's counterintuitive in some ways, but it's really important. And I do feel little by little more and more of us are learning to when they see something absurd. Not, just re tweet a joke about absurd. This is just ignore it. It's nonsense and new making a joke out of it just gives it more oxygen. Yes I agree one hundred percent resist the urge to re tweet nonsense and lies. I wish more people would do the same thing that you do. Thank you very much for being on future hindsight and congratulations on the book. Mueller. Thanks a ton. Since this is a civic engagement podcast I couldn't agree more with Devlin about needing more civics education and training in critical thinking although it's true that many Americans are more discerning today about things that they read. We do still some die hard believers in conspiracy theories like you and on I'm heartened that the efforts to derail Joe Biden's campaign with details about his sons hacked laptop two weeks before election. Day. Appear to be a hiccup in most parts of the country. I also appreciate Devlin's call that we not repeat falsehoods as a joke or even debunk them I. Hope we're finally Waking Up to a Georgia Nov, has been saying for many years always lead with the truth. Finally. Perhaps, the biggest real surprise in this election is that we're now facing the third wave of cogut in these final days of voting. Forty three states make it possible for their citizens to vote early and if you haven't yet please do. So as soon as possible, some states have cooling off periods between early voting and election day. So double check your state's rules. This is your opportunity to be heard to elect the representatives who share your values and who can actually conduct proper oversight of the FBI. The last day you can vote is November third election day. If you want to hear more from our conversation about how Devlin came to write this book come check out our bonus civics club content patriot. Join US at Patriot, dot com forward slash hindsight. Next week, our guest is Maria UN. She's the founder of issue voter whose mission is to enable equity by giving everyone a voice in our representative democracy. We help people engage between elections and really understand throughout the year what their reps are doing and make their voices heard regardless of who got elected. But the other thing that we have seen is that issue voted does motivate voter turnout. We have found that thirty percent of people using issue voters said that. It's what motivated them to vote in the two thousand eighteen midterms. In other words they wouldn't have voted without it. We've also had people using issue voter tell us that before issue voted they didn't even know there could be another side to this issue, and so I think all of those things speak to how really understanding who their people's reps are and the policies that are being introduced can change people's behavior and habits around civic engagement year round, we talk about what's possible in being civically engaged in a post pandemic world where we focus on policies rather than politics and getting the things done that most Americans do agree on. Until. Next time stay engaged I'm Miller at us. Thank you for continuing to listen to future hindsight. Our executive producer is meal. ATMA's the audio producers. Peter. Fedex and our associate producers are medium Zumbuhl and Brooke Scien- Be Sure to listen to us on Apple podcasts, future hindsight, dot com, or wherever you enjoy podcast every week. This podcast is part of the democracy group.

FBI president Hillary Clinton Justice Department Donald Trump Congress Komi US attorney apple Devlin Barrett spotify reporter Hunter Biden tyneside Washington Post twenty twenty
Coronavirus Shock: Just Another Panic Monday?

Reason Podcast

1:00:16 hr | 1 year ago

Coronavirus Shock: Just Another Panic Monday?

"Well we have an epidemic underway here in the very large outbreak in Seattle. That's the one we know about. Probably one in Santa Clara. Maybe other parts of the country other cities and so. We're past the point of containment. We have to implement. Broad Mitigation Strategies. The next two weeks are really going to change the complexion this country. We'll get through this but it's going to be a hard period. We're looking at two months. Probably have difficulty to give you a basis of comparison. Two weeks ago Italy had nine cases. Ninety five percent of all cases have been diagnosed in the last ten days for South Korea. Eighty five percent of all the cases have been diagnosed last ten days. We're entering that period right now of rapid acceleration and as soon as we implement tough mitigation steps in places we have outbreaks. Seattle the the lower the scope of the epidemic here that was former trump administration food and drug administration. Commissioner Scott Gottlieb talking about virus on face the nation Sunday in the Twenty four hours since those comments. We've seen global financial markets tanks. Senator Ted Cruz and representative. Paul Gosar go into self quarantine and the closure of Columbia University in New York. Many other institutions. Hi Everyone Welcome. The reason roundtable. I'm Matt Welsh. Joined by Nicholas. Be Peter Superman and Catherine Mango. You Ward that. You're right Kathryn. You did thank you thank you. It's not very easy to do. Hi Guys how happy Monday Map it begins. So let's get a Monday morning snapshot of where we all are with this pandemic. I think we're calling it that. The United States has shifted from containment to mitigation as the hyper caffeinated at Scott Gottlieb. Just mentioned we have quarantines in states of emergency being declared from coast to coast worldwide. There have been more than one hundred thousand cases just a little bit. Less than four thousand deaths cases outside China have tripled since the last time. The four of us were on a teleconference podcast. Italy has placed one quarter of its population on lockdown. Iran has released a seventy thousand prisoners rather than Staying inside in an infecting each other here at home at least five hundred sixty four people have tested positive across thirty four states. Although about half of that is in New York California and Washington twenty two have died mostly in Washington state one positive case Attended CPAC the conservative Political Action Conference Which has sent a kind of transit property freak out across official Washington where people like Cruz may have been exposed or or worried about it and I just saw across our feeds here that a DC priest has been diagnosed with colonel virus who offered comedian and shook hands with more than five hundred worshippers. She laughing laughing at the communion corona house nickel. Sp well just saying that's like a mythic kind of means of transmission whether you take it in your hand as was introduced a post. Vatican two or directly on the tongue was not a catholic church. Just for the record. We can have communities where the hell would see Serving the Communities Georgetown as a matter of fact Georgetown Catholic Where was this church? Is this mass see? It's called the Christ church nick. You have to factor nominations before Just this this is the reason why those of us who attend Catholic Church but have never been baptized are not going to get the virus there. Let's peek in tap tap tap Tap Textbook Cheese Dow Jones ticker tape down as of eleven. O Five Am Eastern six point. Six five percents My God man. We are getting down to It's going to be very close to Actual bear market territory for the first time in a decade. A might happen even today and I think all. Us bonds of any duration are all below one percent which is Financial Treasuries for dude. I am so scared about the Coming recession so catherine before we get into like official responses and government policies and all that kind of stuff I just want to talk about your own internal conflicts Because on the one hand you're obviously an emotionless robot spitting out probability statistics and so forth and mopping the panic of the person sitting across from you in that small booth on the other. You understand Exponential reasoning and still. Most importantly you don't want to have to watch your damn kids with schools in DC. Where are you in your sense in your in your conflicts with all these things right now? Yeah I mean you gave a pretty darn good summary of where I'm at and I feel seen which I appreciate so yeah I mean I maintain a certain amount of chill which some of my compatriots here on this very podcast. I think would would Doubt or thinking somewhat misguided. I remain hopeful that our medical system will be strong enough to handle the cases that do become critical and that on that side of things. We will be okay. I remain as always deeply pessimistic about our politics and in particular are public schools and their ability to handle pressure. So for instance here in Washington. Dc where sometimes it rains and they closed the schools. Yeah I just don't feel very confident that we will be able to do. A good risk assessment about exposure and community dynamics and trade-offs for economic purposes. And I think instead that at some point someone will semi irrationally freak out and close the schools. And that's how it will happen or not happen for good reasons. This will be true of many institutions across the board now. There is theoretically some math that some people somewhere could do but it will of course always have to factor in public sentiment that terrifying beast and so that is where we are. I have faith in individual people. I have minimal to no faith in institutions and groups in collective people. I know As somebody who sent their His kids to to Montgomery County public schools which is Jason to DC. They were you know on Thursday nights if there was snow forecast that dusting forecast for Monday would shut the schools down side. Say coming by Catherine. Here's a question that may have an actual answer to but I doubt it. Is there any kind of known formula? Say when a certain number of cases are reported given the population of the school district or something like that. That's when they shut it down and do you think if does that exist and then if there is something like that that was made public to think that would be a good thing or a bad thing. I mean I tend to think it would be a good thing to make transparent. I actually right before we started taping. This podcast essentially asked reason science correspondent Ron Bailey. That very question. Are there any key. Learnings as they say in the corporate world that we could take away from past Epidemics or pandemics particularly those here in the United States. In terms of what best practices are But I think the thing that you were hinting at nick which is very important is it doesn't matter that much. Wear we set the triggers? What would be very valuable is for them to be known and somewhat uniform now this of course is tricky question in our system which has lots of discretion for individual states and districts. And those of us I think on this podcast in many of our listeners had a healthy skepticism of the idea that The federal government should step in and Overrule those protections but as Scott Gottlieb actually went on to say in the rest of the interview that this this show started with there is theoretically a role for the federal government and one that I am. Not Particularly. Troubled Buys Libertarian to provide guidance and provide carrots right so basically to say. Hey here are a bunch of celery not selling Broccoli. Foxtel aqueous off the carrots baby carrots and maybe some of those little sweet peppers that are super good for snacking too strongly disagree full-size. Carrots are better than they became. What about apple slices maybe with a Caramel? Little peanut butter popular among school kids. Okay so basically the federal government could say. Hey here's a bunch of suggested cutoffs. Here's a bunch of places where we see some thresholds. Y'All y'all are still in charge of your own stuff. But here's your some ideas and then to say here's some support implementing those things whether it's money whether it's you know logistical support. Whatever it is to me. That is a a possibility that is constant with a skepticism of government that is consonant with the American system. As I understand it and that would probably be better than our status quo. That is not happening in part because politics are bad and in our current politics are tribal and partisan and bad in ways. That are interfering with some of that squid. Can this be the squid invasion that? I'm having a lot. Of Big Watchmen. Krog man. This is what brings us together. I think that the answer to Knicks question. There is is the number one right I if there is one case positive case or even a suspicion of a case a kid the child of someone who is tested positive. Then that school's GonNa Close Right. I mean that's basically what happened. Columbia Columbia University. It wasn't even a student. Donald thank is soon as there's one person like the one of the first cases that was diagnosed here in New York City was a who works in Manhattan and as kids go to school in Riverdale and I think in Westchester if I got that wrong and soon as he was tested positive school closed. And that's how it's going to go and I got a guy got no problem with that. You know I mean the kids are probably going to be fine for the most part but they will spread the thing around. And it's the olds like certain people on this podcast who are are the most susceptible to it. And so that's what's GonNa Happen. Peter I tasked you with answering one question and I want you to answer. It's before I actually get you answer that question you live in. Dc You are not exposed to kids because you hate them. You are exposed to two hundred pound dogs. What in now that. There's like one maybe two Cases in Dc what is your Basic a personal level of panic and doom. And then I'll ask you a policy question afterwards. I've definitely stockpiled a little bit of food and planned for extended disruptions. Because I because what bidders do you lay in all of them all the bidders also he could make those if it gets real although it does require I don't know what the supply line issues are in terms of ordering obscure routes from Amazon which is necessary for making your own better. Yeah so I I'm planning for extended period an extended period of quarantine but of of mass closures. I think that in an incoming weeks it's at least reasonably likely not certain but reasonably likely that major population centers including Washington. Dc are going to be not fully shutdown but somewhat. Empty people are going to stay home from work. A lot of places are going to close certainly public gathering places. People are going to reduce unnecessary travel outside of the home and some of that's going to be driven by policy decisions. A lot of it's GONNA be driven by employers who are going to look and say a I can't you either. People aren't coming into my shop. So there's no point in opening it up or I can't bring people in here because because it would be irresponsible. We've already started to see that with conferences South by southwest in particular sort of the Not Quite patient zero on this. But sort of the biggest example in terms of conferences shutting down south by South West is gigantic and it is a huge part of Austin's economy. And they just decided not to have it basically at the last minute this year and that's driven. Partly by the organizers feeling like it would be irresponsible to bring in people from all over the world and have them You know all milling around in the same space but it's also driven by the fact that a lot of the sponsors to people who would Be Put it would be paying for events who would be showing films. Who'd be doing whatever it is that they're doing at as conference. Which sort of mega conference that. Covers a whole bunch of things including politics and policy in tech and film and music and all this stuff people who will be participating in it are looking and saying actually. I don't want to send my people to this conference. Actually I don't want to be part of this. Actually I think that this would be a bad idea. You see Harvard University Basically saying no international travel No no business travel. We strongly discourage even personal travel. And I think that that sort of thing is going to spread pretty quickly here as the number of cases rise which they have been as mets at all week and are nearly certain Virtually certain to continue rising in coming weeks. So I'm I am in fact planning just for the the likelihood that I'm GonNa be stuck at home self quarantining you know self quarantine and chill here right. It's like it's Netflix. Corona virus for the next couple of weeks and in fact and so the other thing. Is You know we talked about risk? And I think people need to sort of think a little bit differently about riskier all on the one hand as Matt said this is the highest risk by far is to seniors into the elderly view. See with people over seventy or eighty. It's something like eight or ten percent fatality rates for people who actually get Who are diagnosed with grover. That's very high. And then but then people are doing this thing where they're looking and they're saying oh well for people in their thirties and forties. The risk is say point four percent or point three percent but think about what that means if it's a one and two hundred and fifty or one in five hundred chance or even let's go. Let's say it's point one percent chance one thousand that if you get corona virus you'll die right and that's what it is for people in there and this is sort of conservative or low end of for people. Maybe in their twenties or early thirties. Think about Disneyland about fifty. Six thousand people go to Disneyland on average every single day. If fifty six of them were dying. Would you go to Disneyland? Would you be like? That's not that big a deal. You wouldn't no one would think that in fact Disneyland would shut down immediately within hours if anybody thought that was happening. And so that's the low risk is is the equivalent of Disneyland Killing Fifty six people every single day and so I do think people need to be genuinely cautious about this and not sort of say It's not a big deal. Not kind of say. Well you know we. I'm not going to prepare and I'm not going to think about this. Because the risks are real and the risks are most significant for the elderly. And that's in fact why they are one of the reasons why they're shutting down businesses whether shutting down schools is because you spread it around and you and yes it might not affect children or it might not affect either young people who are relatively healthy all that much but the more it spreads the more it has a chance to say get into a nursing home the more it has a chance to get to your elderly relatives who may have respiratory issues and that's who's really affected here and frankly like you want to draw this out to to sort of really weird and Horrific conclusion it is a problem right now that the three people who are most likely to be the next president of the United States are all seventy plus years old and they have all spent the last Couple of months At least two of them have spent the last couple of months running around the country shaking hands and the other one Even still like even Donald Trump who is not out campaigning in the Bernie Sanders. Joe Biden. South is goes around the country and meets a lot of people. These people are at risk. Donald trump in fact appears to be two hops away from the CPAC ATTENDEE. And it's It is a little bit worrying and there could be some there is there is a lot of potential. Chaos baked into the system right now over the next six months. I still think that we're gonNA find a vaccine and this is going to be treatable within Within two years or so but in the next six to nine months I think we are potentially at least I think there's a reasonably good likelihood that we are in for a really rocky ride neck you to spend some time in the silicon valley a friend of mine who does a lot of business. There said that his impression is that about seventy percent of all available. Brain space is being used on like long twitter threads talk about the exponential risk of corona virus. What what kind of feedback did you get it? I don't know if macho lot as a work as well as pure L. on this man on sixty percent alcohol parral or not. I hear you cleared a macho. Lots will become at some point. All it is is a delivery mechanism for grain alcohol. For God's sake now I think it'd peters both fastidious but increasingly kind of hysterical. You know calculations were really probably in for. A very chaotic possibly chaotic time. That's the attitude that I encountered in the bay area in San Francisco and Silicon Valley and mapped. By the time I got back to New York. I flew out on Friday or something. It seemed to have a beaten made to New York. There is a lot of anxiety about this and I think it's important to recognize that the death rates are low. And as I talked to Ron Bailey. Last week in a for a reason podcasts interview. What we're looking at here is basically something that is a severe flu. Season are a little bit worse than that. It is likely to be significantly worse than that. If you listen to that entire Guy Klay. It is likely the I listened to the bank hired gottlieb's bits not the only person who has an opinion about this so you know and it's like do we take Scott Gottlieb as Gospel when we agree with him. I guess when we don't agree with them then he says about this as is about vaping right. I think it's a risk but the more that we talk about it and you know what I would like to point out. Is the idea that we get in many cases. We're not talking about something like the Spanish flu which had a three to six percent death rate from people who were infected. We get the pandemics that we want and right now. What what. This is channel is who then. Gnc nobody wants any pandemics. No Double Peter. What it what it means. Is that you you know. There is a social element to all of this stuff right. So are you are you going to? Should we all just stay home and self quarantine for six weeks and then hopefully kill it or something like that or what you know? It's like you make different choices based on different risk assessments. What I'm saying is this is coming. And the and the media discussion of it is based on the fact that a large percentage of people are. I believe that Donald Trump is the most incompetent idiot. Who's ever occupied the White House? There's a strong case for that and that because of that. Something horrifying has to happen on his watch. It didn't happen with world. War didn't have with us so now. It's going to be this that this is coming from China are which is now the new villain in everything that we talk about because we're over Russia because it turns out that Russia didn't really throw the election in Russia's and that big a threat to our way of life neither Islamic terrorism but China is so everything coming out of China is awful and evil and you were dealing with this on some level. There has been a record long economic expansion which everybody knows can't go on forever and at the same time we don't want it to end. We're all kind of hoping to end. There is an election going on which seems to be apocalyptic at the very least for baby boomers. Because God fucking hope that it's the last baby-boomer election where where a baby boomer we're actually even somebody who's older than a baby boomer gets into the White House. I think what we need to you. Know we need to think about the corona virus in the context of those social anxieties which are off the hook and to me. That's the overreaction. That's going on here and what we're going to see is likely as Jerry to Chile pointed out in a piece at reason what this is. A classic instance of crisis of what's described in Robert Higgs crisis and Leviathan. Where there is some kind of panic? There's some kind of moment where the government starts to say at all levels starts. Say you know what we need to assert more control over more aspects of your life because we're in a really really serious crisis when the crisis abates somehow most if not all of the control stay in place. That's what I'm most concerned about. I think we don't have as much of a We don't have as much of a fear of dying from this as we do of locking in the next level of kind of increased government. That is just absolutely useless for anything. Other than centralizing power Look I I agree that There's GonNa be a lot of bad policy responses. We're already seeing a lot of talk about policy responses that I think I can. Alex lists and are unlikely to be effective even if you assume A sort of a Keynesian eight. Oh sort of stimulus works kind of view of these things we're gonNA see a Probably some overuse of state local maybe even federal power into to keep people at home in some cases. We sh absolutely should be worried about that all on the other hand. We should also be worried about under response about responses that don't go far enough And that don't take this seriously enough. For example we talked about one of the good things that the federal government can do is give guidance and that I think is right is give guidance and sort of give advice rather than say. This is what you must do. That's where we want our the federal government and its experts to sort of be weighing in. Its to suggest. Best Practices and health officials suggested for example. They wanted just to issue guidance telling seniors not to fly into canceled travel and president trump and the White House overruled that because they thought that that would instill panic and collapsed. Economy is already host the economy this is the the trump trump is not going to save the economy here but he might save some lives by issuing correct guidance along the health officials who actually know what they're talking about. Unlike president trump to do their jobs catherine. We saw fifty basis points shaved off the Federal Reserve on an emergency basis last week. Which is immediately absorbed spat out and ignored markets which continued to tank rather than put you on the spot to Come up with the Ideal Federal Reserve funds rates here. But more would do that someone who wouldn't do that to me. Yes I would talk a little bit about kind of the lack of preparation not even in the specific terms of pandemic response. But the lack of flexibility put into the system generally speaking when we've been growing the size of government we've been growing deficits to a trillion dollars even during an economic expansion. And now we look around and looking for a lever and all the levers have Withered I tried to do that makes sense did you just do. I thought that made sense withered like orphan. Limbs on a robot rabbit come on. Please extend extend the metaphor right. So this wavering. Point talked about a lot in the past. Is You know in good times when things are looking up. That is the right moment to implement austerity. That is the right moment to try to solve longstanding problems or resolve long-standing liabilities. This is true in all areas of life. This is true about personal finance. This is true. If you're running a business this is true if you're running a country and we have now fully missed that window and we are bright back in the. Omg Zone and Matt. You're quite right that I thought you were just GonNa. I thought you were going to not mix the metaphor and I don't know why my hope would spring eternal like that like i. Honestly how can I not learn but we have already pulled all the levers all the way it's true and You know this decision to cut rates by the Fed is it was the kind of the last the last little tweak that we could do and and now we're out of options except for the one that we've been pursuing along with lots more debt more spending will figure it out later. I will say I am generally not a one of those libertarians. Who is very focused on the Fed? I just You know I get that. There is a theory of the case that sees the is kind of the original sin or or kind of the core of a lot of our dysfunction. I have had that case made persuasively to me but it. It is not a theory that I come back to over and over however This recent decision has nudged me a little more in the direction of the like. End the Fed Libertarianism. Like I just. It just looks to me to my on. Non Expert is like a great example of sort of both too little too late and possibly an action that leans into and worsens the peaks and troughs of a cycle rather than smoothing them. I don't know because you never have the counterfactual right. You're never able to see what would have happened if the Fed hadn't acted and I know that there are listeners to this podcast who have a much more refined understanding of how all these dynamics work and I would love to hear from you on the twitter's but my bias here. Seeing this this decision this week has been to feel a little bit more like these guys don't seem to think the bigger fear is or is going to come from the fiscal policy side. Where you know. We're already having all the wise men and wise ladies of of Washington of the commentary Talking about how. We really need a stimulus now because the economy is tanking because of this yes or no that might be happening but we need to immediately give everybody a thousand dollars to go spend on pure. Al and Kleenex We're GONNA need to bail at the airline industries. Maybe other types of destination our travel type industries and things like that and what you know to build on. Catherine is saying is that you know we. We did all of that over ten years ago and we never stopped doing that and nobody cares and it makes it means that when you actually have a problem and you've been shooting bullets like twenty four seven literally and figuratively. You know it's like well you know what we're kind of out of ammunition. I'm actually more interested in in trying to find out or trying to assess what is the global economic effect of all of this. Because when you have you know a country like China which next the US is the biggest economy in the world is clearly going to be hammered by this probably not not not in the short term. Either there was already a shift away from certain of trade with China and putting plants and capital equipment in China. I think that is something that is. You know a really major major thing when you see an economy like Italy which is you know in the in the scope of things in in you know. It's not a massive economy but in terms of the European economy. You know it's the you it's actually. It's a significant player and if the If if the type of infection rates and economic slowdown that you see inch in Italy spreads to the EU. You know were looking at a very very major kind of economic slowdown. That could have a lot of really a problematic outcomes. I I think the best case scenario in terms of The economy is just that we have two or three months where the travel sector You know the airline industry hotels Service sector are not quite shutdown but close and that the that we just have a full quarter of of lost revenue in the travel sector and then all the economic ripple effects that come from that when the airline industry suddenly doesn't have any money anymore when all the hotels Don't have any money anymore when all of the tipped workers don't have any cash anymore right like think about think about South by Southwest Times ten weeks or twenty weeks and in every city in the United States and maybe a lot of cities in Europe as well. I think that's the best case. Scenario that quote taken out of Context Air South by South West but everywhere always but south by South West because what that's that is also it. I mean this is where it becomes. I think important not to oversell this. Because it's not every city as Austin and not every I'd I don't know what the ultimately what is the economic effect of South by southwest on Austin and then when you get to cities where tourism or annual events are not like convention. Stuff is not a big thing and this is where. I think Libertarian skepticism towards power can cut in a lot of different ways. And and and can be nihilistic in a certain way well it's like you know the government sucks everything. It shouldn't be doing anything. That's a bad idea but it is also clearly. I mean we have to everything that we're reading about has to be filtered through a mass of bullshit detector that everyone in the media for very different reasons wants this to be as big a fucking deal as possible to that. Said that's absolute. I want this to be the worst thing you know the F. Gross overstatement. Yeah this. There's people who are out there trying to do serious work on this. Some of them fall on the like. Oh my God panic doom. Some of them don't see in everybody who wants trump out of office wants us to be as big a deal as possible trump say anti trump derangement syndrome. All the damn time which I think is problematic. Let Me Finish Fox. News Fox News wants us to be as big story as possible especially if we can blame it on the Wuhan Wuhan race gets a this pod taken tight. Td S era. I will take it back mad. And I'll say that roughly seventy five percent of the media and particularly legacy media wants us to be as big a deal as possible underlying data there. I'd like to actually go through your research methods. I have a great example of how with you so I can only share it in person. I this is a great example of how conversations about statistics are really hard to productively. Have right like at least seventy two percent of them. Just go wrong. There's a big. There's a big difference between everybody and seventy five percent. There's a big difference between point two percent in two percent. There's a big difference off so Intact talking figuratively or literally. So I take it back to media is actually a very good clear lands and we should not have our bullshit detectors because the media is just trying to do its job. It's alright. Thank you really Miss Thousand Manning. Thanks this is. This is something that Russ Roberts Blessed be he of ECON talk. Fame is really really good on at when I was a young journalist just starting out and went on one of my very first junkets to Cape Cod to the Weeden bomb center retreat They had a couple of sessions on how hard it is to think and talk and especially how hard it is to communicate about. Statistics that basically if you say a number that is less than two percent people the way human brains work is that we round that down to zero and if you say a number that is greater than like eighty percent the way that human brains work is that we we round that up to definitely going to happen one hundred percent certain and this is just. It's like it's a caveman problem. It's a it's a full t brain problem and we are all suffering from and we are not better then cavemen and we can try really really hard to fight against and we should but this is this is going to be how this discourse is like small numbers round down to impossible until they round up to certain hard shift. Let's go to politics. We had Super Tuesday less than six days ago. Six days ago. A believe it or not doesn't seem so Super Joe Biden won more delegates so far although they're still counting that's not funny that's like was not worthy of laughter. It's the town. It was the tone so anyways Joe Biden won more delegates and Bernie Sanders which as a result. I mean like so far. They're going to count in California until the viruses. Wipe out all of the country and that results would have seen absolutely ludicrous and wettest Florida. I read like if they can push back Florida a couple of days. You know the I've been that could radically change the The outcome the Michigan Primary is Tuesday. And my God. Go to your little. Five thirty eight polling do Hickey. There and look at the difference between the Sanders versus Biden polling from seriously one week ago until now it's flipped Biden was down more than ten percentage points. Now he's up. Fifteen percentage point in Michigan We've had Michael Bloomberg finally dropped out. Elizabeth Warren finally dropped out. I think she's the only one who hasn't yet of the former candidates endorsed Joe Biden Tulsi Gabbard still out there. A God bless her Getting muscled off the debate stage By the DNC. But we're being dead person as both as a woman and a person of color. She doesn't count anymore. What color is she? She's she's like Polynesian right or something. That's the new color and I'll say is we got a An outrage tweeter. From a listener who is known to us? Any reader who is known to US shall remain unnamed. Who did not enjoy our use of the phrase woman of Color in reference to Chelsea? So just keep in mind. There's debate out there in the literature and is her sort of color person of color at any rates Let's Is this finally at long last. Kathmandu Award you American blinking. It Socialism. Did we look at we? Look at Bernie. Sanders became close. We ran simulations for like my God he might be the guy and Democrats. That God. No can't do it. Yes but also no. I'M GONNA BE I'M GONNA go full suit. Herman here I know like never go full sugerman but here. I am and say that it looks like for this moment. Exactly in this spot of time. We have indeed blinked. We have said you know what? Let's not dude socialism under the auspices of Bernie Sanders. Right this exact minute in this exact way however the horizon of the Democratic Party the the openness of the overton window the spectrum choose. Your metaphor has now become so much more socialist we have. We have moved so far in the direction of Medicare for all and other interventions in the economy in terms of a general mindset that is redistributionist. An Egalitarian centralizing and that is not going to go away and so like even if Bernie Sanders loses which currently looks like he will. He's still going to win. And that still refining. Although not as terrifying Bernie Sanders being president in one year. Can I just point out by the way that all of these discussions like? We keep talking about the outcome of the Democratic Race for President for the for the nomination as if it's all Americans so when people were like you know what America wasn't ready for Elizabeth Warren. Because she was a woman. It's like Democrats people who vote in Democratic primary so the Party Faithful Democrats who at at last-gasp by last count by Gallup twenty-seven percent of people in America said that were Democrats a small portion of those where people vote in primaries and they said no to Elizabeth Warren. They're in the process of saying no to Bernie Sanders. So I do think it's worth keeping in mind that all of these discussions which somehow are about America writ large are actually about a subset of a subset of people in America. Well that's why I'm using this language about overton windows and such right. I'm not saying okay now. I'm not saying that. The probability is one hundred percent but eighty percents like eighty percents mentally rounded up two hundred and fifty outside. This is how we set the outside edge of the realm of possibility to the left in this country. Roughly speaking is that we do a Democratic primary and then we see what that fraction of that fraction can tolerate and the answered. This cycle is something much different format than a woman but Medicare for all just know Elizabeth. Warren it's not the same thing I don't know because Hillary Clinton clearly was never the nominee of that of that party. Either that's something we learned over the past week. Let's try to ease up on the sarcasm and serving you talk a lot about how Joe Biden is not a moderate. Tell us why because he doesn't do moderate things In look he is a moderate when you compare him to Bernie Sanders it's true. He's not a socialist. He wants to tax less. And spend less than Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren An so Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders defined the outer edge of big government progressive policy. In Bernie Sanders again. I think it is completely fair to call it socialist or at least democratic socialist policy given that that is how sanders himself defines. It and Joe Biden. Isn't those fix what he is. However is the most progressive big-government left most likely presuming. He's the nominee he would be the most. The left most nominee four major political party at least in modern history. He is proposals. Add Up to the the most acts hikes he's proposing more taxes than Clinton or Barack Obama or spending than either of them and because Biden is such an Avatar of the Democratic Party. He's been around for forever. He's run run for president and he's been running for president since I was seven. Maybe six years old I'm not I'm the youngs on this side on the podcast here. I'm not that young. I'm thirty eight. And he's been running for thirty plus of those years for president and so he has been around the Democratic Party and always kind of been a point man for whatever. The Democratic Party is into at the moment right so he was on the Judiciary Committee in the nineteen eighties. He spearheaded spearheaded criminal justice reform in the night dot criminal justice reform the opposite of that he spearheaded criminal justice forum experience expanded sentences in a tough on crime policies in Nineteen Ninety S. He was he was the point. Man for the stimulus Under Barack Obama Right. He's just always been kind of the Democratic Party's go-to Guy for the thing that they're doing which means that you can in some ways use him. Let's all almost like a survey right like in the way that you Survey of Of the country US just a couple of thousand people respondents to To say what the whole country is like you can use Joe Biden like you survey Joe Biden and find out what the Democratic Party or at least the establishment is like and what the establishment is like right now is not socialist but into a lot more spending a lot more taxation a lot more regulation than has been in the last thirty or forty years for sure and that is worrying. I would I would add to that. I would add to that that actually Biden though is you know. And and this is true of trump as well that they are actually lagging indicators. Where the country is because everything that Peter was talking about? That Biden was was into and I throw in the Rave Act. You know. 'cause he's also he is not simply a You know a go along voter in the war on drugs he is. One of the major architects US helped create legislation that led to the creation of the drug czar's office back in the eighties. He is a terrible establishment politician but he perfectly represents the move towards bigger more expansive government. And what what I would say. Though is he's talking about taxing people more now when you even look at somebody like Barack Obama Obama ultimately went along with certifying most of George Bush's tax cuts which a- going back to the two thousand election recognize. And remember that both Al Gore if we still remember him at all but both Al Gore and George W Bush campaigned on cutting taxes. Bushes were a bigger tax cuts. But both wanted it. What I N I think from a libertarian point of view one of the things to think about because Donald trump is a big government conservative. He thinks he is under his watch. The amount of money that government spends independent of our ability to pay for it has increased significantly by one thousand four hundred forty dollars per person according to a New York. Times Tally of all of that. Revenues ARE DOWN. But it's also actually revenues are down but they're still down in terms of deficit spending. And so what we see and I think this is something. Libertarians need to fully kind of embody. And then figure out. How do we turn this around? Under Republicans and other Democrats that government does more and spends more again and again and again ended increases debt? And we are not part of our problem I think is that we're not pushing against while the Republicans are bad and they win an election or the Democrats. It's this is the way that the country has been going since at least Richard Nixon. Basically I mean. There was that brief respite in the nineties. Which is important. And maybe that's the where we need to go back and figure out how did government spending as a percentage of GDP declined. How did you know at least a rudimentary balanced between government? Outlays and revenues. Come into being What do we do about entitlements because this is not about Joe Biden or Donald Trump? It's much bigger than that. And it and it all points to ruin or you know a a major major screw-up and cataclysm from you know what government is offering now versus what it's going to be able to in another ten or fifteen. I think it's worth just briefly pulling this back to the discussion of Corona virus and the policy responses to it. Let's say that you are a centre-left economist type and you think that fiscal stimulus Spending the government spending money in times of crisis is an idea that basically works has a bunch of sound research behind it if you even if you are of that view what we have done over. The past. Decade plus is run deficits so high that we'd no longer have the ability to do that in a way that that is That makes it that would make it work According to this sort of Ito's the kind of basic Keynesian idea about how stimulus is supposed to work. Because we've been by running and so this is sort of been a theme of the Congressional Budget Office reports on the deficit and the debt and how it just keeps getting bigger a specially under trump. Is that having that debt. Overhang and having those high deficits in good times Has made it very difficult for us to mount a policy response in bad times when they come and they will come and so You know this is a this is a kind of an alarm that that I that reason has been sounding now for for years. Is that when you run up these deficits and when you let dat just sort of continue to grow like this which you do. Is You limit this your space for action even under again like I said even if you are a sort of a conventional Keynesian Who thinks fiscal stimulus is a good idea. And in fact I think that fiscal stimulus is wildly overrated at best. And then there's this other problem with at right now. Which is what is fiscal stimulus supposed to do? Under the best of circumstances it's supposed to stimulate demand so you give people money and then they buy stuff in that. Gets the economy going again? That doesn't work in a situation where the real problem is that. Nobody is making anything. And if nobody is making anything because people can't go to work because they're not traveling because productivity is down because global supply chains have been broken than it doesn't matter if you give them an extra thousand dollars or an extra five thousand dollars a because they're not gonNA have stuff to spend it on and they're not gonna be able to go anywhere and and go to restaurants and spend their money and so just in terms of the kind of the stimulus aspect of this in the end the the policy responses. We have both eliminated the ability to respond in the way that a lot of senator left economists might serve traditionally say we should to to an economic crisis. But also it's not gonNa work this time and we've and we are going to have to be a lot smarter about trying to figure out something that will work And Enter and see what is see what we can do here because I like. I said I think the economic toll here over the next several months and perhaps the next several years is likely to be quite bad. Do Catherine before reported. Forty out on poor a forty out. Hard to say in the morning on the Both the Democratic Campaign and Specifically Elizabeth Warren Candidacy as memorialized on Saturday. Night live once again this weekend. You Nick both kind of alluded to the sort of the reaction among many people to warn dropping out that this was an indicator of a certain amount of at best a deep reference for lady folk At worst kind of misogyny and And Sexism. What say you to that analysis or let's say put it this way. Is it true that seventy five percent of all political journalist absolutely? We're Fan girling over Elizabeth Warren and have been be clowning themselves ever since yes to that last thing. I'm not sure about the deep referencing of ladies or whatever that phrase was that you used. I commend to our listeners. Katie Hertzog of Seattle's the stranger her very first piece for reason Which is titled Sexism. Didn't kill the Warren Campaign. The Warren Campaign Killed The warren campaign. That is basically my view as well. Katya for those of you. Who Do know. Her is an absolutely super cool. Deep bunker troublemaker. Shit stirrer on twitter. Who is also definitely? Not a libertarian. And who in many ways could have been well positioned to be a classic Warren voter but she says she started out. Liking Elizabeth. Warren in the piece did not end up as a warren voter and her trajectory is instructive. She does not hate ladies in fact she likes them more than most people. You know the way too. I think reframe everything in the past where years including trump is really to blame everything on Hillary Clinton when you think about it because she she had the easiest possible win like path to the White House imaginable and she screwed it up and as a result of that everybody is coming up with like theories to explain that away and Hillary has her own thing and she brought her book which was awful. Hsieh's documentary series that she produced. That's on your net flicks or. Hulu or something like that which is pushing all of that You know then the Bernie Sanders people are now saying. Oh well she wasn't left-wing enough. And that's why you know we need to become socialists and then all of the trump cards are pushing the idea that. Oh what what the two thousand sixteen election where a guy barely got into office it. You say an absolute mandate to turn into some kind of economic nationalism. Which ends somehow with a bunch of small readership conservative. Saying it really important thing is that we get back to in America where women aren't allowed to leave the household so that they can take care of their kids when they're not sent to school because of Corona virus. It's all Hilary Clinton's fault at this point that's what I will say about twenty twenty all right. Let's shift to our end of podcast. What you have been consuming business catherine. My recommendation is timely for two reasons The first reason is that yesterday was the forty second anniversary of the hitchhiker's guide to the galaxy. Which is the most relevant anniversary for the HITCHHIKER'S GUIDE TO GALAXY? Technically the anniversary of the radio show. Which is how things started out for those of you who have not read. Douglas Adams masterworks. I strongly recommend that you do so They feature Among other things the phrase don't panic which is good advice for our times and also the name of Neil Gamons book about Douglas Adams's hitchhikers guide to the galaxy. So but you're also supposed to bring a towel bringing towels it's important to be prepared and there's a lot of stuff about cocktails so sugerman relevant but These are of course wacky adventures Set in a slightly alternate universe where there's some interstellar accidental and on purpose travel and You should bring a towel but yes. I just want to emphasize the combination of Neil gaiman. Everybody's favorite my favorite Nick Gillespie clone. He wears all black. He has cool hair. He has a cult following. He's moderately annoying and he. He writes really well. He writes really well and he is. Of course the author of American gods the Sandman series and many others. He is also the biggest Douglas Adams Fan boy and It comes across in this book which is fun delightful a quick read not. I would say extremely well-structured so you kind of want to get in there. Only if you are already a fan of both men but I am and many of reasons. Listeners probably are as well Nick what have you been consuming Well as mentioned previously. I watched face off the nineteen ninety seven John. Woo Action thriller featuring it's really peak. Nicholas Cage and peaked late career John Travolta where John Travolta as a as a I don't know what is like a FBI agent. He's some kind of cop who has to have an experimental face transplant with Nicholas cage to find a ticking time bomb that's gonNA blow up in. La Backward L. A. Was still big enough of town to be the possible target of international terrorism. Watch a fantastic movie. But my main thing was that I've read lead Drummond's breaking the two party doom loop the case for Multiparty Democracy in America. He is a political scientist. Who has a interesting theory about what happens when you get to parties in a in a in a system like America's where they are perfectly essentially perfectly sorted into a conservative and Liberal Party as we have and why that is a problem? It's a very very interesting and good book The one thing and I hope to talk with him about it at some point in the near future but he is believes that a government that does is not regularly passing major transformational legislation. Is Somehow I failed? Democracy as opposed to one that is may be perfectly representing the will of the people and that the people are just really awful and deserve. What kind of pandemic that they get but breaking the two party doom loop the case for Multi Party democracy in America by Lee Druckman Superman what kind of pandemics have you been consuming? I have been watching the outsider which a which was aired on. Hbo At ten Episode Series. That ended last night based on a Stephen King novel of the same name. It's fantastic and great. It's by It was developed by Richard Price And then also and stars Ben Mendelsohn and it's It is a supernatural crime. Show that has a little bit of a a kind of a pandemic Sort OF CORONA virus Jason Ch Twist to it in that it is. The detectives ended up realizing that they are on the trail of a killer who spreads viral early. And that you can kind of catch murder and It's the show has gotten I think some positive but also somewhat but not glowing reviews but I really liked it and so I'm a fan of Stephen King's novels. And He King. Of course has been adapted Zillion Times. I mean. I think there were at least three Stephen King movies that came out just last year and this is by far. I think the the most king like Stephen King Adaptation. I believe I have ever seen just sort of gets all of those king tropes and the king type characters who are haunted by their own demons as well as a perhaps real demons of the ways that kings characters are incredibly gripping they're not super complex but he writes these characters that are just super engaging because they're always spinning out. Worst case scenario is always sort of imagining what the the most horrible thing that could happen is or in some cases with the most best. The best thing could happen but there's a sort of maximalism to the to the his characters imaginations that's always spinning And so his. His books are so interesting to read. Because you see them these kind of one note characters but they're always thinking about the thing they most want in the world the thing they the most the thing that could that could ruin everything right. And it's often a you know a kind of a really mundane everyday thing and then of course it always ends up being something more than that something bigger and more horrific and this show sort of gets that and then blends it with a with a with a kind of traditional dark crime. Drop in ways. That really work. Well the the acting Excellent it's like I said Ben Mendelsohn Jason Bateman is in is in the show for a while And I just I highly recommended I. I'm a little surprised. It hasn't gotten more attention In terms of In terms of Prestige TV series. Because it's one of the better shows I've seen in a while and it has a pretty satisfying ending. I when I was on vacation when I was on holiday from this podcast. Believe Sugerman was Was taking the the point guard role Then I was part of my Vacationing was at a delightful place. Not totally well known among people outside of the State of California Called knotts berry form. Oh my cow man right wing boys and buried magnates legacy thank you if you have ever eaten boys and bury it came from boys and Berry Jam. It came from this farm in Buena Park California. Anyways this is Disney land adjacent amusement park. That is several rungs lower on the imagineering of my mail and I hadn't been a and but several rings hire the right wing anti communist stuff. I don't know what what did you see compete. Odd Talk to Brian. Doherty about not the the namesake. There he was a real. I K- UNISEM F. A. Collecting pennies for hall on Halloween for UNICEF is a Is A world war. One world government plot. This will probably then put this in a nice sharp relief. What I'm going to recommend about it in particular anyways. So this is a busy landed Jason Place when I was a kid and I haven't been there since I was a kid. It was mostly the you'd be. They'd expanded the farm into that as chicken dinner restaurant. They had this a lot of this old west stuff. You go into mining kind of thing and you had the saloons and ending. Get Your picture in Old West costumes and these kinds of things. And then they started adding a crazy roller coasters in the camp snoopy and it became a full fledged amusement park. And so I went back and the kids and thinking like of course they're not gonNa have the old West crap because like it's it's been thirty five years and people don't do that in California anymore and no they still had all the old West crap specifically and this is what delighted me about this. The most an on on that trip they had this thing called the the old West Museum at Knott's Berry Farm. Which is I mean museums. A strong word. It's a collection of weird things. And it's all like in this kind of Ye olde West kind of a hagiography or this is rosy glow of what Western expansion. Look like but like the Curios really interesting little figurines of people carved out of Avocado pits from the nineteen teens and like travel brochures and like a cigarette cards ladies and the Old West in the nineteen fifties like fire putting out carriage and it ends up by this All this time kind of running through the cycle of kitsch into like. I'm still glad that there are collections. Left like this around because they are anachronistic but at this point they have a lot of stuff. That's really interesting to look at. So if you happen to go knotsberry farm and want to sit down and let your kid go on the death. Drop or whatever and just Kinda Geek out on some pretty cold west Memorabilia and stuff by right wing lunatics It's right there. Go CHECK IT OUT. And that's all the right wing lunacy that we have time for here. Thank you for listening to the reason roundtable. We will see you again next week or at least Most of us will see skin next week depending on the level of doom and panic and keep listening to reason dot com slash podcast including a knicks greats reason it viewed nickel espy's on Wednesdays and And that's it. Thanks goodbye men. We are really a really not social distancing here in Mirus spread box thing. I mean it's this is. Cdc does not approve yeah. We're doing the opposite of that. That foam is going to keep the CORONA VIRUS. So why we just figure out how to make the phone slightly moist. We can really probably.

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Mueller says little, but was that the point?

Left, Right & Center

56:43 min | 1 year ago

Mueller says little, but was that the point?

"This is Josh Barrow and welcome to left right and center. You're civilized yet. Provocative Antidote self contained opinion bubbles that dominate political debate. This is the fourth week of July and this week it was muller time Robert Mueller testified before the House judiciary and intelligence committees he's and well. I'm not sure we learn very much that was clearly muller's intent. He already wrote the report that people could read if they felt like it. He said in May the report was his testimony and he wouldn't go beyond it so Democrats spent much of the hearing quoting from the report and asking to affirm mm-hmm that what he had said in the report was true they also tried and failed to get him to say the president had committed acts that would get most people indicted for obstruction of justice. Were they not sitting presidents who are protected by a Longstanding Department of Justice memo that says you can't indict a sitting president. Republicans Republicans for their part wanted him to talk about the steele dossier and the origins of the F._B._i.. Investigation into people around the trump campaign which wouldn't do saying that's not as purview. We'll talk about those hearings in a moment later in the show. We'll be joined by two academics focused on climate policy. One rhythm has provocative thesis that the green new deal is far less expensive than it appears also Evelyn Farkas will join us to talk about rising tensions with Iran and the president's unusual efforts to get American rapper ASEP rocky sprung from Swedish jail but now let's bring in our left frighten center panel as always. I'm your center joined by rich lowry editor of National Review on the right and on the left flank along the Roosevelt Institute. Hello Hi cash. Hey Josh Rich. What did you make of the Muller hearings well? It was obviously a fizzle missile and we all learned afterwards that had been an open secret in Washington that Bob Mueller had lost a step. Unfortunately we saw that demonstrated on live T._v.. For four or five hours and top Democrats must have known us but just been so desperate to try to create a T._V.. Moment that would catalyze and shake something loose on the impeachment dynamic. They went through it anyway so it wasn't a game changer establish a little bit sad and I think the main thing we learned is that it was very unlikely that Bob Mueller was rigorously in charge of his own investigation so Felicia. I think to rich's point a lot of the disappointment was that Muller did not serve. Anybody's political goals certainly didn't do what Democrats were hoping in terms of T._v.. Moments out of this hearing airing. I also don't think he provided a great deal for Republicans. I think you know to to richest point. There's this this talk about him having lost. I didn't think he was as bad as a lot of people thought he was. I mean he's clearly hard of hearing <hes> and he's clearly you know he's seventy. Five less energetic than he once was ause. I thought he got better in terms of his performance through the day but I do think that it was partly that you know that Bob Muller is less energetic that he once was but it was also partly he was trying not to be interesting and so that he was not interesting is not necessarily so Sara Lee a failure on his part. Now that's right we could have expected that he told us that <hes> you know I think the most sad and also actually alarming part of the entire set of testimonies the really wanting disrespect that many elected Republicans showed to muller himself. You had sensenbrenner accusing him fishing. You had gohmert you know trying to enter into the record. A piece called Robert Muller Unmasked and this just seems like an attempt to actually personally attack him <hes> you know there are real underlying issues here about what the president attempted to do to obstruct justice. I think these remain very serious issues and <music> all of that is obstructed by these questions about mother himself. I find that really actually quite scary. Rich to Felicia point one thing that Muller did seem interested in talking about at length was was passed an ongoing Russian threats to to U._S.. Elections <hes> <hes> which is something that is discussed somewhat in part one of his report there are also counterintelligence findings that have not been in probably never will be made public <hes> that relate to that he clearly wanted <hes> more focus on those efforts for twenty twenty Republican congressman will heard <hes> spent his time on that in the House Intelligence Committee hearing but otherwise it wasn't a big issue. Shouldn't this be something that is a focus for for members in both parties something that that really one can learn a lot from both what's in the report we've seen and then what's in some some material that we're not privy to you but that that is in the government's possession yes but I don't know why we need Bob Mueller to tell us that that I think there's been this ridiculous puffing up of Bob Mueller some sort of Oracle where if you write something down in the report you know that's one thing but if you actually actually says it in a yes or no answer and congressional testimony then it's unassailable true in and now everyone has to rally around this. He's just a guy he's just a prosecutor in members of Congress can make their own judgments about all these matters and I didn't see any personal attacks on him from Republicans. I did see some Republicans very effectively raising the issue that this new prosecutorial standard of not exonerated is exist nowhere in our law nowhere in president. It's it's impossible. I think to think any U._S.. Attorney who's ever advance such a standard and this was put the molar sometimes without the without giving you an opportunity to respond but sometimes actually in a back and forth and he could do nothing to defend it because it's indefensible but on on the Russian interference operations issue this isn't something that Muller was confining himself to yes or no answers on and it's not something just some guys the former director of the F._B._I.. With extensive experience in counter intelligence obviously there are other people who are also experts on this issue but this is an issue where his relevant standing is not just that he's a former prosecutor. It's his experience as a counterintelligence. We're making a huge deal like like a major moment at the hearing was when Adam Schiff said unpatriotic and wrong to welcome foreign assistance and Muller says is problematic at the least I and I was supposed to be like a a big moment <hes> why you know everyone can have their own judgments about these things I think obviously it's problematic and you shouldn't welcome foreign assistance in an election but the just Bob Mueller the the Democrats have been using him as a crutch. He's going to do the investigation. He's going to tell them what matters and the investigation and he's GonNa Create The T._v.. Moment that's going to create the political drive for impeachment and I just think that's been pathetic. They should step up themselves or shut up. Does this take impeachment impeachment off the table. Because what what I was looking at here imagining about impeachment Felicia is Democrats. Have this idea that impeachment hearings will be useful in some way that they will focus public attention on the president's wrongdoing more than it's already been. They will change minds wouldn't impeachment hearings look kind of similar to these hearings. I think there's a real reason that Democrats are conflicted on impeachment because it is a calm too confusing and almost difficult strategic question as to whether or not hearings would <hes> do do more to actually attack the president or as you say <hes> look like a non issue so I think the impeachment issue remains <hes> confusing but I want to go back to the Russia question because we can talk about Bob Muller all we want but let's not forget that the Senate Intelligence Committee on Thursday released a report about Russia's targeting of elect of our elections in two thousand sixteen. It looks like they are doing the exact same thing in twenty twenty. They're already doing it. We are seeing no no additional federal attention to this seeing no additional federal funding for it. This is a problem that actually right and left ought to be concerned about and I think the fact that rich you dismiss it or try to make it a subset of Bob Muller's performance <hes> This Week is wrong riches there. I mean setting aside specific legislative solutions. Are you confident that election officials in the fifty states all of which Russia made efforts to breach Election Systems in two thousand sixteen I mean are you confident. This issue is being handled appropriately. I think I've even heard Mark Warner saying on T._v.. That the agency level the trump administration is taking this seriously. I think some Democrats in folks on the left are now calling Mitch McConnell Moscow Mitch rich because he doesn't want to rush to pass one of these so-called election security bills that would do a lot to federalize our elections and that's just not that's not the way the system set up to ron and it doesn't mean he welcomes <hes> foreign interference doesn't mean once foreign interference but I don't. I don't have the insight to know what's happening. Every you know every single state in the country on this but it's something people should obviously be aware of and be trying to harden our defenses against as these hearings were happening. We also got closer to finalizing the budget agreement that sets federal spending levels and raise the debt limit for the next two years. It's a bipartisan agreement but the deal pass the house mostly with democratic support. They're actually enough. Democratic votes for the deal that could have passed with no Republican support at all about two thirds of house. Republicans voted no rich that vote tally assign the Democrats got the better end of this deal. Yeah I think you know Republicans got more defense spending which they wanted but they're not enthusiastic about the overall level spending I do think though it's kind of the final nail nailed coffin of the tea party Republicans are a big spending party now. They're not as big a spending party as the Democrats Wanna be but the deficit obsession debt obsession is all gone now and May. They return pending a Democrat winning the White House and wanting to spend more than even Republicans do but this was the the final nail in a stage of Republican politics that is now over Felicia to the extent that you I saw this on the democratic side. They tend to come from the left saying that it spends too much on defense that it doesn't impose enough restrictions on the way the the trump administration spends money related to immigration efforts. Do you think Democrats made a good deal here. I think one really important thing happened. In this budget deal which is that we got rid of question. We got rid of automatic spending cuts that were just as we saw when we talked about this earlier this year during the shutdown. Where's your so problematic and what the point that twenty eleven law did was every couple of years we had an environment of crisis that was sort of self manufactured because we had to undo funding levels that were artificially created <hes> and we created a kind of brinksmanship in the meantime Congress still head to fund the government and so I think getting rid of automatic matic spending cuts <hes> was a very important part of what happened in this last deal one criticism? I've been hearing from Democrats with this deal. It runs out in mid twenty twenty. One people are saying it sets up a situation you could have a Democratic president and you would give the Republican Congress Chris Power Soon in that president's term to pull basically what happened in twenty eleven with Barack Obama and threaten a debt ceiling crisis and try to force some big spending cuts related to that you talk about getting rid of the sequester you're getting rid of the lever that has forced Republicans is to the table over and over again since two thousand thirteen two thousand fourteen which is Republicans are focused on undoing the automatic spending cuts in the military and you've seen relatively smooth dealmaking in most cases starting with Paul Ryan and Patty Murray Twenty fourteen do worry about about setting up that twenty twenty one crisis. I do worry about setting up other kinds of spending crises but I think what we have to do which I think we're gonNA talk about. Later in the show is really rethink what it means to fund the Federal Government End to actually use public investment spending so I was obviously I wasn't there. I don't know why they couldn't go get past sort of June twenty twenty one <hes> I actually we've seen very many short term deals that were far less than two years so I I expect that this was really the best that the speaker could get and I think that pushing it out this long actually gives us time to start talking about what the what the debt-to-gdp ratio really ought to be <hes> I have some confidence that actually we can <hes> both get more Revenue Avenue <hes> and increase our understanding of what that ceiling ought to be so we can actually really start funding government Felicia. What do you want to talk about well? What I really wanted to talk about? Was this recent polling we've seen that has as looking very hard at how important independence are are in the twenty twenty presidential race. You know you've seen trump's approval rating about ten percent higher in must win states like Wisconsin and Florida and most of this is with white non college voters so I think it's really important to look at these independents to ask ask what are they actually think about the economy and why might they vote on what basis might they vote <hes> and there's a couple of things that democrats should really focus on <hes> first of all many of these white working class voters are economically distressed and that it could actually affect their vote away from trump. I just did a study <hes> for the voter study group with my co-authors Lee Druckman and Vanessa Williamson and we found that not only one in five Republicans think more like a Democrat on economic policies. They want to tax the rich which they wanNA raise minimum wage. They're actually they say they're more likely to vote against president trump because of that <hes> the second thing is that when you go right to the ultimate swing voter independence who are economically progressive these people are seven percent of the electorate and they've already started switching their votes. They pulled the lever for congressional Democrats by sixteen points more in two thousand eighteen than they voted for Hillary Clinton in two thousand sixteen. You have correctly I think this focus on and <hes> independence white working class voters but let's not forget that these folks are actually economically progressive so rich it feels to me like there are hazards and opportunities for for both parties in in these areas that Felicias describing. I think that these observations ovation's actually do significant extent to inform Donald Trump's two thousand sixteen campaign with his emphasis on the needs of workers rather than entrepreneurs on trade and being in favour of Tariffs de Emphasizing entitlement cuts that previous Republicans had been more enthusiastic about and then you see democratic policies some of which poll really well with these voters and some of which don't pull so well and so you have you have different policies that trump would like to emphasize versus the ones that Democratic candidates might be emphasizing twenty twenty. Do you think that Donald Trump is on strong enough ground round with these kinds of voters well. That's a big question. I know the answer to it. It will do a lot to determine twenty twenty <hes> the outcome. I think what we're seeing potentially on the Republican side is a giving away of off the language in the logic that had made the Republicans small government party kind of across the board you you kind of listen to what a Missouri Senator Josh Holly is saying and he he gives these big denunciations of the free market or says the free market is not the be all and end all denounces the the elite and wealthy people and then the policy is well. Maybe we should have more tax credits or something but there's no reason that that was the case he's making wouldn't <hes> support much more government activism than Republicans have ever had before that wouldn't support tax increases on the rich and the way the Republicans have advocated before I dunno went you know an one hundred years more <hes> so ah trump was was might have just been a precursor to this and we've talked a lot on this show he he kinda got the populist appeal and the populist rhetoric but a lot of the economic policies been traditional Republican policy as wonder whether that traditional Republican policy wash out in future years flea show and you describe these these voters in the middle as as economically progressive presumably that depends on precisely which progressive economic policies you're you're talking to them about and you're seeing this fight in the Democratic presidential primary right now about how far left to be on these issues and what to emphasize so for example a public option health insurance plan pulls extremely well even pulls pretty well Republicans pulls almost universal sport among Democrats very strong support among independents but there are a number of items on the Progressive Policy Agenda Agenda that are underwater in the polling if you ask about Medicare for all that replaces private health insurance <hes> there's a new mattress poll out last week that has that underwater <hes> forty one percent in favor fifty four percent opposed among the whole public and then things like offering health insurance to to unauthorized immigrants part of National Health Insurance plan very unpopular slavery reparations very unpopular so you have certain aspects of a progressive economic agenda that are getting a fair amount to play in this presidential primary that do not pull well and that I assume do not opole with these specific economically distressed working class white voters that you're talking about right well the two or three issues that Paul extremely well with these particular economically distressed voters are higher taxes on the wealthy and a a higher minimum wage which isn't surprising and if you look at that poll us you do see that Medicare for all who want it a kind of public option which I actually think is a path ultimately to a much greater kind of federal <hes> support of <hes> <hes> healthcare that pulls it seventy percent you see government regulation of prescription drug prices also pulling sixty seven percent you see a green new deal pulling it sixty three percent U._C.. A wealth tax pulling it about that so these are very very progressive policies and if you would told me that these were the in two thousand fifteen or twenty sixteen that these were going to be the policies that seventy percent of Americans we're going to support I would say maybe we have a really progressive country so rich. I mean you you sort of describe what Josh Holly is talking about with this sort of you know repositioning repositioning conservatism as against bigness whether in the public or the private sector and taking on big tax as to some extent vaporware and you talk about a way that you could <hes> put more meat on the bones but it sounds like that's not a way that you would want to do what is the alternative. I mean isn't the diagnosis says right that you know Ryan Ism was tired did not speak to the interests and needs of voters in the middle of the electorate didn't speak to the to the working class part of the Republican Party base. What is the alternative to moving the Republican Party in that direction well? I think it's coming up with intelligent elgin alternatives that don't have big economic <hes> downsides you know Republicans WanNa get on board. The minimum of big federal minimum wage increase. I think for instance that would be a mistake because you're squeezing certain people than out of the lower end of the Labor knbr market which are jobs that are really important in terms of getting training and skills and getting to the next rung of labor market so you don't want to endorse policies that have unintended consequences and an entitlement reform. I I think it's it's it just can be an economic necessity necessity as a matter of accounting at some point. This is a heck of a problem for a pop party is going to have more populous orientation and going to have to have some appeal in places like Pennsylvania Selena upper midwest presumably going forward what is a form of that <hes> in Tottenham form that would be politically saleable and I just don't have an answer to that actually WanNa turn back to this question of key swing voters and focus on. On a minute sub section but very important one there are six percent of Americans who say they approve of trump's management of the economy but they disapprove of his overall performance as president so this is a really interesting group and these voters say day. They're holding back from voting for him because of their own values. They don't think he's going to be a good role model for their kids their their values on non economic issues mostly family separation and climate and their real concerns about his character and temperament so I think that that is also a really important group to look at. Let's take a break. I'll be back with rich lowry of National Review and Felicia Wong of the Roosevelt Institute to talk about the green new deal. You're listening to left right and center. What do you think share your thoughts on? Today's show go on our facebook page or tweet us at L. R._C.. K._C._R._W. and download the K._c._R._W.. APP to listen to left right and center on demand back again with left right and center. I'm Josh Borough of New York magazine on the right as rich lowry editor of national review on the left is Felicia Wong President and CEO of the Roosevelt Institute. We're going to do something a little unusual. In this segment Felicia has brought a guest with her J. W Mason who is a fellow at the Roosevelt Institute J J W was an interesting new paper making a macroeconomic as for the green new deal flee before we bring in J. W can you set the political context a little bit for us. Can you talk about what this paper represents in terms of sort of reframing the debate about the green new deal right well. The Roosevelt report is really designed to do three things first to show that we don't have to trade off between improving the economy and making the economy more green you can do both so that's a reframe. The second thing is to show that to really make the transition to a green economy economy not just to move to phase out fossil fuels but also to expand mass transit or to retrofit buildings or pay farmers to capture carbon you simply must have public investment led strategy and then the last thing that the report is designed to do due to show that we can actually pay for it. The problem now is no longer climate denial to actually climate austerity and the report is designed to show that that austerity is wrong well so let's bring in J W Mason J W is an associate professor of economics at John Jay College in addition to being fellow Roosevelt Hydro W so your paper argues that a robust green new deal program might entail new expenditures of five percent of G._D._p.. which is a lot for context existing? Federal Spending is about twenty three twenty four percent of G._D._p.. A._D._p.. You say we could incur those expenses with little or no new taxes and that we should think of this not as an economic cost at all but as an investment how how does that math at the idea here is we're trying to connect to conversations that really have been taking place in separate silos silo. There's a conversation about e carbonation and climate change and then there's a conversation about the macro economy and the macro-economy conversation. We know that we've been facing inflation below the feds target for many years. We know that we face the problem with zero lower bound. We faced persistent assistant periods of high unemployment. We faced very low interest rates in the U._S. and around the world now we're looking at a new round of fed cuts. We're looking at the talking about a new extraordinary stimulus so central bank. Yes thanks so so essentially usually when we turned macroeconomics we're looking at a world that seems to be suffering from a persistent lack of aggregate demand suffering from a persistent lack of sufficient spending to employ all the labor and other productive resources available to us with a lot of economic costs then unfortunately when we talk about climate we've tended to assume that we are working with the economy at full employment. That's fully using its resources and so anything that we devote to decarbonisation is going to have to be taken away from meeting some other needs but in a world where we have the problem of the zero lower bound where we have this problem. Secular stagnation has Larry Summers and other people have talked about of persistent demand show it was it doesn't make sense to think of it that way that when you spend money on public program like decarbonisation not only are you what are some very urgent goals for our society but you're also helping plug this gap. You're also helping make up the shortfall in demand as we've seen conventional monetary policy is simply not able to do said of break that down the usual way that people think about the economy A. and the way the economy works in certain economic situations is basically that if the government goes out and spends more money and either taxes or borrows in order to do that spending that that's going to crowd out other activity in the economy the government borrows more money that push up interest rates that makes it more expensive for businesses to do private investment and so the government spending crowds out private spending your contention is because of this economic situation we're in where there's a shortage of aggregate demand. The government can go out and borrow and spend and that doesn't crowd out private activity so the government could spend conceivably not just on the renew deal but on anything and it essentially would cost less than it appears to cost on the government's financial statements. That's exactly right. That's exactly right. The social cost new spending is much lower when you have a shortfall of aggregate demand and that's really in a way that's what a world of low interest rates is telling US older persistent low interest rates is telling us that the opportunity cost public spending is much less than it might have been at at various times in the past. I have one more person I want to bring into this conversation and that's Joseph Mike who is the director of climate policy at the Niskanen Center <hes> just as one of people on the right who's been trying to interest conservatives and Libertarians and the idea that we need some sort of aggressive climate policy <hes> welcome Joseph. Thank you for joining US happy to be here. Thank you so. Is this an argument that appeals to you that essentially you know so many of the debates that we have about climate change inch prevention and with the the assumption that there's a really large economic costs associated with them that you need to convince people that that cost is worth incurring that basically that frame is wrong and that we can go out and say to people actually this is something that it's not completely free but a lot of it is free well. I think it's <hes> I'm a little skeptical. Though I appreciate the argument I agree there's evidence there slack in the economy <hes> in in in demand and I agree that <hes> oftentimes the costs of climate action have been overstated as a means of of of <hes> opposing individual policies but I I do question if it's <hes> if it's a going to be a constructive move to cast the cost of decarbonising the economy which we should do as as a feature as opposed to a bug of the of the policies. Let's see we want to use it really depends on your read of the situation. I think if we're in a situation where we simply can't spend enough money and we've we've seen this situation we saw the situation during the great recession where conventional monetary policy in the U._S. and elsewhere was simply not able to get the economy up to full employment and where I think today there's widespread agreement that the stimulus package adopted in the U._S. and elsewhere was not large enough then. I think we absolutely have to say that spending more money on anything is a feature are not about knows it happens. We're fortunate to have a very urgent problem to spend the money on but isn't the phrase on anything really key in there this this macroeconomic argument that you're making obviously this has been a controversial topic in U.. S. Politics for for over a decade it would apply to to any new public investment. So isn't the burden still on you to show that this is the appropriate way to spend that money I mean you could you could spend it on healthcare on child care on infrastructure not particularly aimed at at at green benefits isn't the burden still to show that this is the best use of these resources even if it is feasible to finance them through government borrowing I think to some extent our report is aimed at people who agree that the problem of climate changes and extremely urgent social problem and that is one of our highest priorities and are concerned about the paying foresight. I don't think our goal was to convince people the urgency of the problem. I think there's plenty of other evidence and arguments out there to convince people that I do think there's a certain argument for decarbonisation in particular because there is a certain time limited aspect of this. It's not unlike healthcare education. It's not something something the government is necessarily going to be doing permanently so if we think that this period of weak demand might not be might be something that will last for ten or twenty years but not forever. There's a certain argument there and I also think there's an argument that when you want to do this kind of macroeconomic spending there's a lot got to be said for public investment in particular and I think that <hes> you know that's something that clearly is a big component of decarbonisation way that it might not be for some of these other areas rich have Republicans to an extent opened up this line of argument for people on the left which is to say that you know Republicans came into office with some priorities they wanted to spend more money on the military. They wanted a corporate tax cut and they decided that there was no need to pay for that that the macroeconomic situation was such that the government could just borrow more money in order to pursue those priorities and and so far economic performance seems to continue to be fine in that environment of increased borrowing. Why shouldn't the left pick that up and pick its own policy goals and say that's what to use the increased deficit spending for yeah? I don't think Republicans have any credibility spending at the moment and in deficit spending we've had hasn't had any obvious immediate economic harms. My fear is just by the time we all agree that <hes> we can spend any amount of money and deficits don't matter at all will spend ourselves to a level where deficits matter and economic conditions will will change and it just seems to me that this this <hes> paper with all due respect to my today W it's it's more of a case for spending than than spending on the green new deal per se and I would think if you accept those premises. Thomases and I don't want to spend on things that make the economy more efficient and more productive <hes> their infrastructure projects that could do that for instance like basic R._N._D.. <hes> where we're I think we're not spending as much which is we should is a no brainer. A green new deal involves a notch just creating new sources of energy but scourging the sources of energy we already have that are represent great national wealth and are more efficient and I just don't buy the argument and that making energy basically more expensive and for swearing sources of energy that that are more efficient is good for the economy. You can make other arguments for that. It's allegedly gonNA save the planet but there's going to be a a big free lunch and a boon to the economy makes no sense to me well. So W D do you buy that premise because it it seems to me that the way that you and some others talk about some of these investments in new technology are similar to way that people often talk about the Apollo program which is to say that you know we did we had this expensive program to go to the moon and we had all sorts of ancillary learning from doing that that that boosted productivity in the economy and that led to other useful innovations and ultimately produced more economic growth so I think that sometimes the argument you hear about green technology the claim Ms that this particular area both public spending and of regulations that forced shifts in private spending that they'll they'll force people to do useful are indeed that will make the economy more productive in the long run. I guess the question is how do we know that because usually when the government comes in and tells private that businesses no don't do the thing you thought was most efficient do this other thing you should tend to expect that to to reduce economic output. So why is this a case where you get positive knock on benefits from that one piece is Felicia said we're not just talking about regulation. We're talking about public investment vestment and there's a big difference. I think when you're trying to build up new industries from scratch it's true that simply raising costs as something like a carbon tax. You know this is why we don't agree with people who say the carbon tax is the be all and end all policy here because all that does do is raise costs for existing carbon intensive forms of energy and production and we think that's not enough you need directed public investment into new sectors and we think there's a lot of areas where there's increasing returns where you start an industry initially. It's not cost competitive initially can't get going on its own. It can't be successful in the market but with smart strategic subsidies and public investment you get to the point where it is and I think we are. We're already seeing this. You know there's a reason why most of the new installed capacity of electricity in the U._S. is wind power because it's cost effective. It's because it's actually cheaper to invest today for private companies but that didn't happen on its own happened because you initially had public investment and you had subsidies that got it up to that point. If you ask why is China taking off dominating the Solar Altaic Market it's because they've had smart policies of putting public resources. They're building up that sector sector and getting it to the point where it's then cost competitive. It's not the case that you simply already have sort of the most efficient options you have and if you close them off you're just going to be doing something less efficient Joseph some of the arguments that j w made their <hes> are related to a declining enthusiasm suzy. Ask them that I see for carbon taxes from some climate advocates on the left basically saying there are concerns about carbon taxes both politically that they that they will end up being unpopular and their aggressivity and arguing that through some of these other approaches you can achieve many of the goals you try to achieve through a carbon tax that through public investment in research and development you can move people away from from carbon-emitting activities <hes> without making carbon tax central to your climate. <hes> plan does that make sense to you is the carbon tax is important as people made it out to be well. I have to say I think a carbon tax is the best <hes> policy approach we can take to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and that's largely for the same reasons that we're just described right research and development or early deployment of wind power for instance changes the relative if prices in the marketplace and you shift to that kind of production. That's exactly what a carbon tax intends to do as well. I think the idea that we need to do a lot more spending right the programs. We've done previously for clean energy or not five percent of G._D._p.. That's Defense Department apartment types of numbers and I don't know that that's necessary to <hes> read our economic production of Greenhouse Gases J. W where did you come up with five percent. It was really just a benchmark number that was sort of the high end. The argument was even if we got that hi this is still still affordable. It was not it was not an estimate of what we think. The cost would be a lot of estimates out there low lower than that but but I do think it's a lot more than where we are now. I think that that that there is an urgency to this requires a level of public investment. Maybe it's not five percent G._D._p.. Maybe it's three percent sean of G._D._p.. It's still a lot of money again that number and the report was simply arguing that even if you take sort of high end estimate it's still something that we can afford rich. What if anything do you think we should be doing about this? I mean you have people like Joseph out there trying trying trying to get Republicans to take seriously the idea that this is this is not just a real problem but a real problem that is addressable through public policy in the Republicans should care about addressing people obviously worry about the economic effects you also see people like the president sort of sowing doubt about the underlying hang science and and the extent to which this is really a problem <hes> if you have concerns about you know specific economic effects of specific policies what if anything do you think we should be doing about climate change basic research and remaining a rich and dynamic a society with the ability to adapt if the worst comes but I don't believe that we're in a climate crisis I think a lot of the rhetoric we see on the left the Democratic Party where every time there's a tornado or a flood or hurricane is responsibility of global warming none of that supported <hes> by the the research and even the the most robust A._F._C. version of the green new deal look at the estimates using the best models out there and it just has a miniscule fact on global temperatures <hes> eight years from now so I think there are a lot of people who ideologically they like more spending they like more regulation and I think the climate supposed crisis is their new way to make the case for that agenda which is a very old one Joseph. What do you say to that? I assume this is something that you hear a lot in your work. I sympathize with the idea that there's the impulse to have a lot more public. Spending is now being put on a climate action timescale right that this is a sort of a convenient mechanism by which to push a different agenda which is about changing the economic structure of the United States. I agree with J W that climate is a compelling issue for public policy makers. I would push back on rich saying that <hes> the manifestations of global warming in individual weather events and extreme events are increasingly visible when you look at the <hes> the scientific literature and the we're now in a regime where we're managing both the costs costs of adapting to climate change and dealing with its damages as well as reducing emissions to prevent future damages G._W.. I want to ask about how your proposal fits into the broader economic agenda on the left which is to say what what you have pointed out about. The idea that we are below capacity interest rates are low they appear to remain low even when the deficit grows that gives us room to spend you see people on the left say that about a lot of policies you see I mean <hes> Alexandria Casio Cortez noting that when talking about single payer healthcare and and how that can be financed and so to rich's point there even if there is room to spend more on a deficit spending basis that room is not infinite eventually you would reach a point where you were borrowing enough that deficits would matter again and so you can use that space once let's you can use it to spend <hes> and then once you've spent it then an additional program the also WANNA implement at the same time you would presumably have to finance that with taxes or something else so how does this fit into the agenda. If you know if people take up what you say on the green new deal <hes> how would you also do single oh payer. How would you do childcare? How would you do other things that are that are on the left's agenda which I assume you also support? I think we really need to bracket single payer Medicare for all which is is really vastly more expensive than anything else. We're talking about including the green new deal and clearly I think almost almost everybody who talks about that is also talking about some kind of revenue that goes with it so comma Harris. Yes I think I think so. I think that one I think that it's not obvious to me that setting that one aside that we don't have space to do actually of robust green new deal and you know robust housing program and and some type of free higher education and the rest of it because it's Medicare for all is just is just much much bigger than the rest of those things but I also I do think and this is a starting point here. The climate change problem is the great problem facing us today. It's probably the most urgent public policy <hes> <hes> problem that we face <hes> so I don't I don't see a problem with with prioritizing that. Honestly I want to bring in Felicia again to to close the segment <hes> we talked about the green new deal like seven months ago. We were on a special edition the show over the holidays where we talked about visions for what's coming with the left and I remember I asked you what is the green new deal because at the time it really felt like more talking point there has been more detail that has been rolled out over the last few months it still feels to me like an issue where the democratic coalition benefits in terms of being able to form cohesion by a certain amount of vagueness about exactly what the policy is going to entail. I mean for example. G._W.'s paper is sort of agnostic on on the use of a carbon tax doesn't endorse or reject it. <hes> does has does note that if you do it. It's regressive offset it with something that's progressive but once you start putting details in deciding you know where we're going to spend the money. How are we going to finance it? Does that start to fracture the coalition at all as you have to start to make prioritizing choices and how do you deal with that. Well I'd actually make the other argument that the great <hes> fragility of potential green new deal is not putting enough policy specifics behind it so what you've seen since we talked about it in December January is a number of people putting more meat on the bones of the framework <hes> that was that initially came out so you see our report where we you know list three different buckets in which you could really do significant spending you see Jay Inslee as work work which really focuses much more on jobs in front line communities and also focuses on regulation of oil and Gas Vice President Joe Biden also has a climate plan. You've seen better come out with a set of policies you saw the House Democrats. Come out with <hes> you know something that is intended to be somewhat imperilled to the original A._F._C. Green new deal so I think that this is it's actually important to put enough meat on the bone so people actually know what we're talking about here and then we can have the policy debate. Things are going to be fractured but I actually think there's great agreement on the left at this isn't urgent priority and I think folks are GonNa work it out whether it's as you know targets for twenty thirty versus twenty thirty five versus twenty-fifty. That's something that's going to be worked out but moving is the most important thing I want to thank G._W.. Mason from the Roosevelt Institute and Joseph Mike It from the Niskanen Center. Thank you both for joining us. I've been talking with Felicia Wong of the Roosevelt Institute and Rich Lowry of National Review. We will be back with Evelyn Farkas to talk about Iran and S._F.. Rocky you're listening to left right and center join the conversation on our facebook page or tweet us at L._l._c. k._c._R._W.. Stream all episodes of left right and center and other great shows at K._c._R._W.. Dot Com slash podcasts highest vanessa host of the NOCTURNE podcast and I wanNA tell you about K._c._R._W.'s annual twenty four hour radio race. It's a competition where producers make original audio audio stories overnight. The radio race is dear to my heart because I was a finalist way back in two thousand fourteen along with Nocturne co-creator can spiraling back then I was just about to start knocked her but I didn't have a lot of experience coming up with story ideas quickly glee and turning them around on a tight deadline. The radio race was an amazing challenge and honestly one of the most on experiences of my life. It was exciting and harrowing an almost as much adrenaline as the one time I tried parasailing it also marked the beginning meaning of my creative relationship with K._c._R._W.. Today nocturne is distributed by the station. The radio raise takes place this summer August tenth through the eleventh were asking producers of all levels and from anywhere in the world to participate and to make a nonfiction nonfiction radio story based on common theme. I can't wait to hear what you create over the course of a day and one very intense night sign up right now at K._c._R._W.. Dot Com slash radio race back again with left right and center. I'm your host. Josh Barrow on the right is rich. Lowry editor of National Review on the left is Felicia Wong President and CEO of the Roosevelt Institute and now we're joined by Evelyn Farkas who is a senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States Evelyn is here to talk about the rising tensions with Iran but I want to ask first about another foreign power. That's on president trump's mind this week which is Sweden American rapper. Asep Rocky has been jailed in Sweden for several weeks now. He was arrested for assault though he says he acted in self defense. The arrest has led to the cancellation of much of his European. Tour and various American officials and celebrities have urged the Swedes to release him most notably president trump has put extensive public and private pressure on Swedish Prime Minister Stephan loafing trump reacted angrily win loaf told him the sweetest judiciary is independent and there's nothing you can do to influence the prosecution <hes> Ellen first of all hello and thank you for joining us. Hello Hi Tash great to be here so I'm not GonNa ask you to comment on Swedish law and the validity of this prosecution. My question is essentially American diplomacy with foreign powers. I assume ordinarily has a variety of goals were balancing and obviously Sweden is not the most consequential and powerful world power we interact with but how does it affect our foreign relations when the president picks a hobby horse like this and lobbies lobbies on it on a way that truly looks quite improper to officials and members of the public abroad. It's so disturbing Josh because it's so abnormal you know this is another example of what the president himself would call unpresidential behavior because normally when you have a situation where a U._S.. Citizen is accused of committing a crime and put in jail and faced with a criminal prosecution. The United States will not intervene politically or otherwise if the country's democracy with a strong rule of law. Maybe you would have something happening at the embassy level. Let's say the ambassador would go and make sure that everything's proceeding as you would imagine a democracy that the I would be defendant is is has access to family etc but Sweden is a very strong democracy with a very strong rule of law and so you there would be minimal work that the United States would have to to do there and certainly you would never have a president publicly calling for the release of someone who's been accused of a crime again in a democracy where they're not want to just Willy Nilly accuse people their own citizens or other citizens of crimes the way the president has approached this is the way you would approach it and the way he should approach it in dealing with Russia because Russia today as we know or maybe this is a reminder or or maybe it's I information for some listeners but Russians been holding a man by the name of Paul whalen forty nine year old guy who went to Russia and it looks like he was snatched by the Russians under false pretenses they plant it looks like the intelligence community planted some some information with him and said that he was a spy and they've been holding him without a trial with improper access to medical <hes> medical assistance that his family says he needs and that case is one where the president needs to intervene because there is no rule of law affectively in Russia that Kremlin is holding this guy in response for our holding of Maria Boutin A- and that's a whole nother story a Russian national. Obviously this is irregular and improper my question. Does it matter or are there like are there harms to the United States because the president has has picked this fight to pick yes because of course now he's insulted Sweden and while Sweden is not a member of NATO. It's very closely aligned with NATO. If you just pull out your map and you look at the number one threat threat being Russia you have to deal with Sweden they provide us with good information and intelligence on what Russia is doing. We work very closely with Sweden as a partner. We obviously also have a trading relationship with Sweden Sweden's a member of the European Union and if we treat our friends like this us again every other friend is going to think when are we when is the president of the United States going to tweet about us and essentially draws down on our ability to influence our friends and others and that's a problem for the United States of America Erica. Yes the president's trying to distract from probably Russian interference 'cause. I don't know if we're GONNA talk about it but two big developments are the fact that the Senate Intelligence Committee released a report saying that all fifty states retargeted by the Russians and then of course we had the muller testimony the other day and you want to talk about Iran but that's probably what the president's trying to deflect attention from but it does do diplomatic damage. What is there to be done about Iran right now because you've had this escalation since it's the U._S.? Withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal reimpose sanctions Iran has been doing these provocative things. They're enriching more uranium than was allowed under the deal. They shut down the U._S.. Drone last month they've been intercepting ships on their way in and out of the Persian Gulf. What kind of risks does this pose specifically quickly to the interest the United States and what can we do about them? At this point having pulled out of the deal yeah I mean look the Iranians like the North Koreans and another scenario they would like the United States to come back to the negotiating table and make another deal similar to the one that we made with them before the United States on the other hand has said all the way up to president trump were willing to negotiate but when you then look at secretary pompey's language he said we'll negotiate if Iran and then he has a list of I think it's something like sixteen eighteen conditions and essentially what it all adds up to is if Iran completely changes its foreign policy which is unrealistic and so we keep pressuring Iran through sanctions the latest thing now is this tanker war. You're in quotes if you will in the Straits of Hormuz where we're pressuring Iran and and limiting their ability to move oil in particular through the streets of her moods so we're cutting off more of their potential revenue and it's pushing them to the wall and the hope in this administration maybe that they negotiate on better terms. It may be that there's a regime change. This is the problem that I can identify as an American trying. Had to figure out what my government is trying to do and it's also the problem that I think is in the back of the Europeans minds as they are trying to navigate the the situation because they don't want war. They don't want escalation. They're not pushing for regime change. They would prefer to go back back to a negotiated settlement something along the lines of what we had before rich. Do you have a sense of of what the strategy is inside the administration right now because you have these officials including the president who are all over the map on how they would seem to like to approach Iran you have the president it's sort of a openly talking about John Bolton as someone who favors Hawk attractions that that he would never favor on the other hand you had the president allowing Rand Paul to try to negotiate a very dovish member of the party. Is there a theory within the administration of how they're going to get around in line well. The consensus across all factions is squeezing Iran and will continue to see more of that. I expect these certifications for so-called civilian nuclear work in Iran that Iran's cooperating with Europeans with that we basically allow by certifying. I expect those not to be renewed. which be another pressure point? A big benefit from the Iran nuclear deal be one of the last benefits to to go away but what what comes next is the big question I do think <hes> trump imagines this as a prelude to diplomacy and negotiations. I think that's probably where we're more likely headed rather than <hes> toward more intense conflict. I wouldn't be surprised if that's what the Iranians a think as well and I think so far <hes> the administration's handled it fairly well the various provocations and the Straits of Hormuz we can do more to provide security to shipping and we're heading heading that way but given that Iran seems desperate to be retaliated against in some sort of major way and desperate <hes> to be bombed presumably because it thinks thinks it would create domestic political problems for trump that will create greater tensions in the U._S.. Alliance science with its European partners. It's probably not a good idea to give them that and trump hasn't yet felicia by the idea of trump is the keystone of restraint here who has held us together. Yeah I don't agree with <hes> riches read of the situation situation as I see it. I think the trump administration's response is really incoherent in an actually reflects a deep internal divide because on the one hand you see maximum pressure for regime change you see a doubling down on sanctions you see threats of military attacks in on the other hand you see and this has been true from the beginning of the trump administration not just with Iran but you see a really deep isolationism that is at the heart of putting America first so I think it's really tough to be strategically. He's smart in a game of chicken. When you've already tipped your hand that you're going to swear I and I think that going back as we've already said <hes> to rules of law and being a nation of law that is the best the best way to create more stability in the International System Evelyn? Is it possible to put the deal together if trump decided you know that he's going to send Rand Paul or somebody else's an envoy and try to you know presumably trump would say like this is like the U._s. m._C._A.. It's very different than the thing that that came before for it. If the president came around and wanted to get back into something that looked like the Iran deal. Would that still be in the offing. Is that something around absolutely yes <hes>. I have josh a an OP ED in the Washington Post now almost a month ago that essentially lays this out we just need the president to decide that that he wants to deal and the deal can include all of the elements that you had in the Obama deal and the joint the J._C._p.. Away but he can make make it better he can include missiles <hes>. I think the Iranians would go for that. Maybe he can get some of the Americans that the Iranians are holding released in prison in Iran. Perhaps also Thais the the American that has being Austin tastes being held in Syria they run INS might be able to get him sprung so a few other things maybe some some language on a resolution a peaceful resolution for Syria. I believe the Iranians would come to the table and they would make a deal like that. So I think it is possible. The problem is that it seems that the administration wants a maximalist outcome. They're not gonna go for this kind of compromise and I think because that's unrealistic it will drag on this this tit for tat situation with the Iranians where the Iranians will continue to escalate to try to get us to make a deal and the risk for that entire time will continue and possibly increase the risk that we will have some kind of military confrontation if the president does what you're advocating here goes back and gets a deal. That's like the old deal but a little bit better wouldn't that be vindication of his whole strategy here wouldn't he show that indeed by pulling out of the deal and by doing this aggressive posturing that he had succeeded in improving on Obama's deal it could be if what he got was good enough and or better enough. I guess if those watching thought it was substantially better I mean I think if it was like M._c._i.. And it was just incrementally better view would have have some discussion about that some debate about it but yeah it could be successful. The only thing is again the U._S.. Government is taking on a lot of risk with a strategy. If I were in the White House I would want to negotiate an end to this to limit the risks to the U._S.. Risk Government to the U._S. military to U._S.. Personnel to the United States of America writ large and the economic interest we have because we have a whole nother bunch of issues to worry about besides Iran us going to add yes. It's true the ministrations to manage right now a very maximus. They'll have have to decide what they're really gettable deliverables are that they want to seek an negotiation but also the Iranians. I don't think have any incentive to do anything before November. Twenty twenty in the hopes that a Democrat is elected president who will just return to the deal. No questions asked far aren't they in a lot of economic trouble. Wouldn't it be to Iran significant advantage Evelyn to to get out from under some of the sanctions yeah and that's why I think that president trump can get a better deal and and frankly speaking. I've been hearing Democrats. Say you know those who are running for office but other experts say you know yeah now now. If we got back into office we would also want a better deal so let's go for the better deal but let's not drag out the situation where because the other cost of it getting back active diplomacy where we started josh is that we are really severely straining our relations with the European allies and we need them as I said for a bunch of other more important situations Russia China Etcetera <hes>. We're going to leave that there I wanNA thank Evelyne Farkas senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund. Thank you for joining us. Thanks Josh we've we've reached time once again for our famed left right and center ranch featuring pet peeves from across the political spectrum flee along. What's your rent on Wednesday? The Federal Trade Commission issued a five billion dollar fine against facebook but that fine as big as it sounds is is insufficient. It's actually weightless facebook had already set aside three billion dollars to pay potential vines and it stock price actually rose after the F._t._C. announced the fine but more importantly as F._T._C. Commissioner row hit Chopra Chopra who cast one of the two dissenting votes on the deal said the settlement imposes no meaningful changes to the company structure or financial incentives which led to these violations the fine leaves the company's business model intact facebook is the tip of the iceberg regulators have to go after the concentration of power that causes harms and not just slap fines on top while leaving those structures intact rich lowry. It's her soapbox senator. Josh Holly stands accused of resorting to the antisemitic tropes because he repeatedly used the word quo cosmopolitan to describe borderless elites at a conservative conference on nationalism last week's true that the word has historical baggage going back to Joseph Stalin in the nineteen forties forties who used it when he was embarking on antisemitic purges in the Soviet Union but it's a word that's used widely in academic literature because it's so useful it's also a word that cosmopolitans used to describe themselves so in Short Art Josh Holidays innocent of the charge and it's a perfectly good word and our contemporary context for my rent. Mark Kleiman passed away this Sunday at the age of sixty eight climbing was public policy professor at N._Y._U.. And one of America's leading experts on drug and criminal the justice policy he had a brilliant mind these areas he described how you could make parole and probation systems more effective and less for Conan at the same time he designed drug legalization regimes that would discourage increased drug use and dependence and he advocated an approach to drunk driving that focused on control of problem drinkers a policy that appears to save lives both on and off the road his research and his work with lawmakers improved lives and we'll continue to do so after his death estates perform their criminal justice systems and move toward marijuana legalization. Mark was always generous with his time when I wrote about these issues he made me and so many other people smarter about them and he will be missed. That's all we have time for today. I WanNA thank rich lowry. Felicia Wong J W Mason Joseph Mike Catt and Evelyn Farkas left right and center was produced by Rebecca Mooney our technical director J._C. Swat Katie Buerskens.

Republicans president Felicia Wong Rich Lowry Bob Muller Donald Trump Roosevelt Institute US Robert Mueller National Review Joseph Mike Josh Barrow muller editor Evelyn Farkas Russia facebook
34. Swing States: Kate Kenski & Chris Cooper

How The Heck Are We Gonna Get Along

1:04:19 hr | 7 months ago

34. Swing States: Kate Kenski & Chris Cooper

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Even in twenty twenty for some, the next two weeks may feel like the longest in years. The Mail in polls have opened in every state by now. The messages from both presidential campaigns are set and very few believe that many undecided voters still exist. In the Electoral College New York and California are unlikely to surprise anyone. The DAKOTAS. And Alabama don't seem to have any surprises in store either. All eyes are fixed on a very small handful of battleground states where the outcomes of the November third election will likely hold all the cards for the rest of the country. I'm clay aiken. It's Wednesday October twenty first and this week politic con welcomes two experts from two very different but very pivotal states to shed some light on how their states may determine the president for the rest of us. Kate Kinski is professor of communication government and politics at the University of Arizona. Chris Cooper is the Robert Lee Madison distinguished professor of Political Science at Western Carolina University I'll ask them what makes a swing state in twenty twenty Howard the races in North Carolina, and Arizona going and what are their predictions? What's been motivating voters and is there anything that could change their minds? And it's possible how the heck are we going to get along? So, Kate and Chris Thank you so much for being with us. I was saying I just voted today early in North Carolina and. There was a line on our six day of early voting. There was a line. That I stood in for an hour in the middle of a Tuesday, which is sort of unheard of I have not voted in. North Carolina on election day. I think except wants the year I ran for Congress I voted in person on election day but other than that I can't remember I've always voted early and I've never had to wait in line and today there was a full gymnasium Plenty of poll workers, plenty of access to. Processing people in and out and I still waited in line and our this early voting thing is no joke right now in. North. Carolina is Arizona -verting voting early already. Kate. It is we've actually started with the just the drop off in my area in particular with the drop off balance and we do have some places where you can vote early they're going to be increasing the number of early afternoon stations next week. Okay so it's starting to. Beef up pretty much most many many states in the country. I guess have early voting now, and certainly all of them are doing the absentee mail in ballot in some form or fashion. Because covert. So our our thought with this episode, this week was to try to take a look to swing state you know we have been. Mulling over this election for months. And It seems like every week we speak to people who kind of talk about what Biden's doing, right what trump is doing right what Biden's doing wrong what trump's doing wrong and we're at a point now where most every place that's begun voting that's GonNa vote early has started everybody's mailing their stuff in. There's really it's all over but the shouting, you know what I mean and so weird there's no point in discussing almost anymore who's doing something right? What's what might possibly change in this race? And and really so much of it's GonNa come down to or at least many people believe. Turn out. The number of votes the way they're counted and So. Many of these numbers are almost baked in California. We know how it's going. New York, we know how it's going the Dakotas we know how they're going. In they're just these few swing states where. Despite. The national numbers being? So dramatically in Biden's favourite this moment, there are still a handful of states, especially, Arizona Florida, Pennsylvania North Carolina where you know. We don't know. So we wanted to figure out first of all. Fly. Are. Arizona and North Carolina Swing States in in the first place Chris I'll start with you. I've been here my entire life. It's only been a swing state for a hot second. You know it was it it. It never voted for a Democrat until two, thousand eight and then north, Carolina was like, okay we did that we're going back to read. Why is it so purple now? You know. I think it's a few thing one I think we read maybe a little bit too much into the two thousand and eight two thousand twelve flip right. So at the it running the risk of offending the host I'll say that the two thousand eight was important it was critical but the reality is we were the reddest we North Carolina where the reddest blue state in the country in two thousand eight in other words, all the states have voted for Barack Obama has margin was the smallest North Carolina of. So you flip forward to twenty twelve, we flipped bread. That is true but we were the bluest red state in the country in other words of all the states voted for Mitt Romney and twenty twelve. He's his margin was the smallest North Carolina of any oath. So I think we've actually been a swing state or on the verge of being a swing state for a number of years we have more registered Democrats and Republicans but yet our Sin Senate is sometimes Republicans sometimes Democrats are General Assembly of course, flip in twenty ten but had had historic hundred year democratic control before then so I think we've always been a little bit of a tough tiger to catch by the tail and I think this is just sort of the most recent manifestation of it is just the last two years where the national media environment is Kinda caught onto the fact the North Carolina is swing state. Kate is Arizona a new swing state I mean. It. kind of seems like it seems like it's the first time I've seen it on the map in a while it's as far as a state that might be one by Democrats even even possibly. It's an interesting state in that I would say that the changing demographics and figures have been. Headed towards purple for Awhile? It probably would have turned on triple sooner. But for John McCain's presence. I'm I would say that. The State is is unique in that. We've been a consistently right-leaning state and like a lot of places we've been polarized for awhile. In that composition. At the demographics of the body at South have been such that it could have swung sooner but I think a series of factors have had to to come into play to make it. Very much a swing state this particular cycle. interestingly enough in two thousand eight and it was close enough on the margins that because Barack Obama's campaign had so much money. They actually dumped a bunch of advertising dollars into. Arizona. So that the McCain campaign would have to spend a little bit of money in. Arizona. Rather than appealing to other states at that point in time I don't think it was ever truly at risk, but it wasn't enough to to again for some of the McCain dollars into Arizona to make sure that it stayed in place for John McCain. So I would say a lot of factors have have made it really ripe for being purple and that's why we see what we see today. It would it be fair to say that of the? Of the swing states that are constantly listed. As as true tossups that Arizona North Carolina are the most. Conservative leaning of those and I'm including Wisconsin Pennsylvania Michigan Florida North Carolina and Arizona these to really the ones that. Are More conservative than those others? Acidic absurd good. It that that's right. Ad I would I would say. Yes. But it's always a continuum and there's different aspects of Republicans are being conservative I think for for Arizona's or Arizonans v the part of being conservative really am has kinda Libertarian flair to it. And in so that's coming by as well. Chris. Yeah in I think. To some degree that I think that may be true that were on the more conservative into the spectrum but I don't know look at a state like Wisconsin, for example, I mean I think Scott Walker and and what happened up there looks a lot like north, Carolina I think some of the state legislative power grabs in Wisconsin again resemble a lot of what happened in North Carolina I would look at a state like Florida that of course has had some very very conservative laws passed particularly as it relates to felon disenfranchisement. So I think a lot of these swing states do against sit right on this. Razor's edge doesn't mean that every citizen of the states is purple or as a moderate, but it means that there's roughly equal numbers of folks on the Left and folks on the right. So you know, no, she didn't list Iowa in that list maybe for good reason, but certainly, I will leans a little bit to the right nothing. Some might argue that Iowa could constitute a swing state in twenty twenty. So I think most of these states are kind of tough ones to figure out the flavor is a little different North Carolina Zona but I think. There's similarities are that it's a tough states to figure out. Well. Do you think that they're? Important. Important point that that when we say the Arizona's purple. But doesn't mean it's filled with moderates rent Sir I think that the important thing to keep in mind with these swing states is that. Mobilization. Is Key because there's a lot of people on both sides of the spectrum that are very much committed. To their positions an but whether or not the parties get them out to vote whether or not the presidential campaigns get them out to vote and really makes a difference. It's so. True, of course, swing states are not full of moderates, but that does tend to make their candidates. More moderate. Don't you think I mean Chris Is, not a is not a far left. Democrat. Mark Kelly is not running to be far left Democrat I would argue that Tom that cal Cunningham has not attempted to be a far left Democrat either. So. Are there more people who are undecided in these swing states potentially I mean they're obviously a chunk of folks in both Arizona and North Carolina. Who are willing to cross the aisle? Is that fair? You know I think that is fair in I think they're more folks that are that are willing to split their ticket take again North Carolina's an example. So we have a democratic governor and obviously we voted for Donald Trump for president twenty sixteen. So that was the same election we end up with one Democratic candidate one Republican candidate winning at the top into the ticket There are four counties in our state that actually voted for both of those folks I'm sitting in one of them today in Jackson County North Carolina were voted for Roy Cooper. Our Democratic governor and we voted for Donald. Trump. So yet maybe that there's some folks that are undecided but I think it may mean that we have slightly more crossover voters slightly more split ticket voters and some other states do right now in the polling and North Carolina there's somewhere between eight and twelve percent of folks who against him they're going to vote for Cooper again, the Democratic governor and are GonNa vote for trump and there is some number although maybe slipping that say that they're going to vote for trump and for cal cutting you. WanNa meet that person. I'll introduce you. What's What about Kate? What what? What do you think that I mean Democrats have gained so much ground Arizona so much more quickly than they have elsewhere. And he have that is fair and but I would say that that is very true and I would say a lot of that has to do with the mobilization. One of the reasons why I think Republicans have been successful in Arizona. HAP happened to do with the fact that they've had A. Bikes stronger organizations. Organizational strategies and it really again have gotten people out to vote the numbers that I think always been there for the Democrats. But that doesn't mean the Democrats have gotten out polls. Also keep in mind that with Arizona that the party registration is now roughly a third, a third and a third. So it's third Republicans Third Democrats and third independence. There was independence. Truly Keenan. Go either way, but it's a matter of trying to appeal to the part of being independent appeals take given side. Vic Vic and make a difference, and so that is. Certainly, a pool of potential there in terms of actual party which stretched I say third third and third technically speaking the Republicans continue to have a slight edge and they have about two point four percent edge. Over Democrats although you know things haven't changed. Now did I read somewhere that Arizona one of the few states where Democrat registrations has outpaced Republicans, it's a red elsewhere that. It's been the opposite, but his is Democrats registering at zone. But again, this election cycle. Yes I think they've done A. Really strong job at a lot of that has to do not only with the incredibly. Important. Presidential campaign. But having Senate race I think that Mark Kelly's campaign has done a good job fundraising and you know working those grassroots to get people mobilized. The opposite's true in North Carolina is that right Chris or Republicans registering more people in North Carolina than they are. Publicans Republicans are doing better, but the group that is doing the best of all is a little bit like Zona is this none of the above group step timber twenty seventeen is actually the time where the number of unaffiliated, which we call independent voters in North Carolina. These unaffiliated folks surpassed the number of Republicans. So right now in order we have the most registered Democrats. Then we have the most registered unaffiliated, and then it's Republican and if the current. Trends continue by twenty, twenty, two unaffiliated will be the largest group in our state. It's already the largest group and about twenty some odd county spread throughout our state, some urban centers and some whirlwinds. So Republicans have done a little bit better as of late but the folks that are doing the best or none of the above. And those unaffiliated they're not necessarily. Moderates. Are they I mean in in independence in Arizona they're not necessarily moderates. They're just people who don't want to identify with either par- correct. Don't north gone and then hand over. Yeah. Yeah so In North Carolina voted So we can look at the primary, which primarily they chose to vote in two thousand, eight unaffiliated voters choose the Democratic primary. Republican. Primary every primary sense. Then until twenty twenty where they flip back to the Democratic primary. So a lot of them are just show partisans but I think there is some move ability amongst these unaffiliated voters particularly the younger folks who are just like astronomically more unaffiliated than any other group and north. Carolina also, like so many other states in the south has a long history of of people having registered as Democrats from years. Prior I mean, my mother was registered Democrat for decades until she finally decided not too long ago to change her affiliation I mean, is there a possibility that some of these people have finally just decided to change their registration to Republicans? What's driving the the increase? The what's driving the address registration gains on the Republican side here? You Know A. Sort the three things going on at once right. So one is in migration, which the Republicans are not doing great at North Carolina. So invokes migrate to state. They tend to register his unaffiliated or they tend to register as Democrat right to a lot of them have settled in an area for promotion of the parts of the country Keri, which in North Carolina some drizzly known as the containment area for relocated Yankees and area tends to get a lot of Democrats a lot of. unaffiliated you then have got, of course, the young people who are entering the electorate and they are again much more likely to be unaffiliated, and then you've got these party switchers and so about a million people have swell really a million examples of party switching in North Carolina over the last ten years and Democrats have definitely being the big loser amongst these party switchers folks will go from Democrat their legacy Democrats to unaffiliated and then kind of complete the transition all the way to Republican. So. What's going on with turnout in? Arizona. Right. Now I WANNA get to both obviously I I'll admit and I've already admitted to Chris that I specifically asked for him to be on this episode because I do follow your twitter feed pretty religiously to find out what's going on with with absentee voters and voter turn out and how many people voted in early voting here North Carolina but in Arizona. Are Their numbers that people that you're seeing as to how many people and what parties are dropping those ballots off already. It's it's hard to say it's still a bit. Too early to tell. What I will say about Era Zona though is that it it's it's been used to early voting. This is Sam how we have voted for a long time. I'm what might be a little bit different is that I'm with the contentious? snus. Presidential Campaign people are more eager to get those ballots in sooner than later I'm what we don't know how much gain is going to happen. Once those people who would have already voted anyway if we'd only had it on election day, no once they get their ballots in what we see any gains. What are you worried about an Arizona? Are they handling since you've since you've done the absentee ballot since you've done the early voting in the past do you think the state is is fully equipped to handle the larger number? I do think that it is a crept. Thing Arizona his is done quite well over the past couple of decades and is handle I mean not only early voting but start voting record records in general. Arizona does a good job of that I don't really see that problem and I haven't heard any anything I in a going on behind the scenes like we've heard about in other states So hopefully, that continues to be the trend where at most faces stay on the up and up. Chris there's a few things going on North Carolina. What are you worried about when it comes to? The counting of all the ballots give folks an idea of what? is to be expected, come November third and beyond in North Carolina sit somebody's. Attention here. Yes. So just to just catch folks up we we were the first one reason we've had a lot of attention. We're swing state obviously, but also we were the very first state in the country to mail out ballots. Right. So we're first in flight it says on our license plates and also I and mail in balloting at least in the twenty twenty cycle and it. It's been really an extraordinary rise. So we've already returned about three. Point three times the number of ballots is were returned in all of two, thousand, sixteen, all twenty, sixteen, multiple I, buy three point three, and that's where we are as of today was still a ways to go. So this is a big increase I think we're all trying to figure out how well the state. Board. Of Elections is going to deal with that. There's also been what seems to be a lawsuit every week or maybe half week. Where we've been changing rules as to how we cure ballots and so bell curing is this really seems kind of technical thing but basically if you return a ballot. And you didn't market right. So you your witness signature didn't make it on their goofed somehow the state board of elections the county board of elections will return that ballot to you to be cured or fixed, and then you mail that back. There's been all sorts of questions about how we do that curing process and ratchet change in that midstream. So one thing I'm worried about is just the messaging of all that how that gets out to voters. The other big thing that shifted in North Carolina so far is that traditionally absentee by mail, which is our technical term for for mail in voting. Tends to favor the Republican. Party right. You tend to get a lot of folks overseas might be military their plurality of Republican, not so much in twenty, twenty and twenty twenty only about eighteen percent of people who have returned ballots thus far the by mail are Republican. So it's like overwhelmingly Democrats and so what that's GonNa mean on election day one again the messaging but to I think the first thing that hits North Carolina is GonNa be this blue pop in. then. I think the Republicans are going to gain as the day goes on because the way we process balances the first ones to be counted are going to be these early and the early absentee balloting. So I think watching it on election night if your parents inch in North Carolina, right when the polls close, you're gonNA see dims up just kill out have another drink give yourself a little bit of time and I think it's going to start to look tighter. It is it expected that North Carolina will have all of their. Returns in. On election night or we looking at in North Carolina a few days of waiting to get all of them are winner ballots do so about. So this is again a little bit flex unfortunately, but the new so they have to be postmarked by election day, but they can be received up to seven days after election day. So it'd be a small number of ballots would probably be a very small, but it will be received actually after election day, and so they've gone back and forth as to what the right number of days should be but we will. Absolutely not a hundred percent of our ballots are even able to be counted I do think we'll have the vast majority do not think we will be one of the states that that is kind of the negative poster child here although. Woolsey. Is. This is the same, Arizona. I so in a twenty eighteen when we had the Senate race. The. Decision on about race wasn't made on election day and so like a lot of other states, it'll be not on election day that we know who's one but it'll be carried out because of the high numbers and the other thing I should mention is that if we look at the primaries as giving us some indicator, we know that enthusiasm I'm for using those ballots is much higher. Than it had wasn't that was in the past over previous primary sin. So but also lets us know that it's GonNa be not decided right away, but it will take a bit process those mail in ballots so you don't expect to know the final result in. Arizona. Member third. Now I think that that would be way too optimistic. Okay. What parts of your state are going to be looking towards two on election night in Arizona what parts of Arizona are you going to be looking at to tell you which way you think the state is headed? Are there certain regions in the state? I would say that we have to have to look at the whole package but I would say that you know we always look at both at what's happening in Maricopa. County. That's the largest and we look at the march to that in comparison to the county that I'm in that pima county are we tend to be? A bit more. Diverse in the the Pima County area, and so I think it just depends on how fast. Numbers are coming in. Chris what about the North Carolina is there a place that you're county that you're looking at saying shitter such since such goes one way that the state goes that way yeah, and I'll I'll try to grab a little bit of the front one to on just on other states to watch I mean obviously I'll be watching you know who wins and loses but look at Georgia looks close. Early on an election night I think that's telling us something very important, right. So if Jamie Harrison and south, Carolina has a any kind of chance to be Lindsey. Graham. And it looks like that I think that is obviously telling us something to we know these states. Times tend to move in tandem, right? It's not like one st goes one direction and then a similar stay in a radically different direction. Do they speak you mean sim? You're talking about similar state At places like California and new. York where the margins between trump and biden are just going to be somewhat astronomical I mean Biden is GonNa probably lead in the state of Washington. And Hawaii, by ridiculous amounts and yet still we're looking at the same swing states we're looking at the same states where people I mean. To My, I think I talked to my liberal bubble friends in New York. And they say, how can it be swing? How can you be have sway undecided or swing voters who? Can't decide between the two, but it seems to be the same. States that always end up that way despite the huge margins elsewhere. So desperate. Yes it that's where I think if you look at a state like Georgia that you know by all means. Should be that. But the fact that trump is taking money out of the rust belt and putting an end to Georgia I think suggested it may be. So that's one thing I definitely will be watching and I agree completely that you know Californian New York aren't GonNa tell us much but I think the states they pair well together looking at all the swing states can matter as far as within north. Carolina I'll get real granular. Here I'm in the counties that I think are the most interesting to look at our new Hanover County, which is where Wilmington is so nice visit. Also a good place to watch politics. That's a place that has gone increasingly blue over the last few years, but it's kind of a bright shade of Purple Right. Now New Hanover went four again Roy Cooper and went for For Donald Trump. Jackson. County way out West Very Rural County same deal. It was a cooper trump county that went for Obama. In two thousand, eight I would also watch Granville County. Sorry Jackson Saudi went for Obama Noaa it did Jackson County. Weight and in College. That's exactly right. Yes, there is a Western Carolina University. There's also a lot of legacy Democrats, right? These old blue dog Democrats Democrat for the real political geeks follow this stuff Heath Shuler from this area from this Jackson. County. Way Up in the mountains, right these are some of them are Democrats who you know may like the guns a little bit more than than your. Average Democrat, but they're Democrats nonetheless So Jackson New Hanover. GRANVAL is another one in Nash. Those you're sort of the four counties Then I try to watch in north. Carolina that will be watching very closely on election night. They all have profiles electorally that are hard to figure out in their party registrations and those places tend to favor unaffiliated Buderus as well. Right and as down writing them down writing pima wound down. Your hitch came. It depends like how much the margins are coming in a big. That's that's the one thing to keep in mind if it turns out that you're looking, for example at Maricopa, which normally would support trump at the margin sieber leak close. That's when things. Become more. Interesting. In terms of states overall, I would just say that I always pay attention to Florida Pennsylvania and Ohio right now, if you look at the the trends in the polls at the difference between in a one leaves Biden and when it leads trump is so razor thin and all of those states have plenty of electoral votes up for grabs Pennsylvania with twenty electoral votes Ohio, with eighteen or Two with only nine I'm throws are states I really pay a lot of attention to because I think they give us a good sense of what's going on with with the swing. SIP dates package. Wise. Did you sleep number three sixty more your answer to better health and wellness? It's proven quality sleep anymore questions yes. 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They are comfortable near the end of life our team of hospice experts including full-time medical directors and therapist bring complex modalities directly to the patient or resident in a private residence in a nursing home or assisted living community whatever care setting they prefer if you're advanced illness hospice patient or resident needs intensive symptom management, you can count on Vitas for more information on how Vitas can help support you and your advanced illness patient or resident go to vitas dot com slash advantage. Have folks do you think folks have made up their minds of the in your states even though they're swing even though we probably couldn't predict with any certainty direction either one will go do you think most voters have made up their minds or do you think there's still some people in Arizona Kate? Who are GonNa Watch this debate on Thursday gonNA still make up their mind in the in the ballots. Are. They're still undecided voters in. Arizona. I, suspect there are very few. Voters I. Think it's mainly for those people who might be met crossover category trying to decide if it's worth throwing out the ballot for them and so it's very unlikely that someone's GonNa change their disposition anyway but it might be really hard for someone who has been conservative or his better to Republican to make that crossover divide for Biden or by the same token if someone has been a Democrat and they you know. Always been a democrat. It's Kinda hard to make make that move even. Switch trial, there might not support. The candidates, the time and Very much. So So I don't think that there's a chance of a really convincing affect people although things can happen. I. Would say that if we think for example in the country overall in in twenty sixteen. I think the polls probably you know for a long time were fairly accurate but then we had that October twenty eighth. Cutter, but I think kept some people home and made some people more enthusiastic and get out to vote and we still have time for. Unexpected events to occur which might you know again, not change someone's proclivity to vote for Biden or trump, but might change how enthusiastic they are or longer enthusiastic. That's really what's at stake. Is the same thing in North Carolina where people still actually making up their minds Chris. I agree completely with what you just said. I think that's exactly how this works right there. There's not a whole lot of undecided voters out there. There's not a whole lot of persuadable voters out there So I think what we're talking about is mobilization we're talking about is enthusiasm we're talking about is the difference between putting a sign out in your yard and not putting sign out in your yard or donating money through win read or act blue or not putting donating a little bit of money on their between facebook or tweeting or instagram or whatever. The kids are doing these days with social media to get people to turn out to vote I think it's about these kinds of activities. And we seen a little micro example of this in North Carolina and our US Senate race. Right. So we got this as you know, well, Klay got this this incumbent. Republican do in. Transition was can head to the Senate for about you in a second anyway. So taking away. All right. Sounds good. So just the the quick version US got Thom tillis is our is our. Income at Republican and just a super brief history the seat it was held for a very long time by guy named Jesse Helms folks heard of. Conservative. Dude and that's the understatement of the night. Incense Helms left. It stuck with one party right a win. Republican than Democrat in. Went back to Republican every level not just one. person. No. One's held it for longer than one term since that's right since Helms and Tillis, his margin was the smallest. In certainly, in recent memory in that seat to use of Tillis has got this kind of tough spot. The the second least popular senator up reelection this term, right so things aren't looking real good is running against this guy named cal Cunningham, who is out of central casting for your for your kind of southern Democrat? He's not a is not extreme by any stretch, and then he gets caught in this What started is the most PG sexting scandal of all time and turned into a full fledged affair. and. What we've seen is the polling numbers Titan a little Cottingham with this very small but durable lead but the enthusiasm numbers on cutting hammer nosediving and the elaborate on. Sure. Yeah. So if you ask people on a poll, you know, hey, who are you excited about this candidates you're not excited. There's a lot of people who were saying, I'm GonNa vote for CAL. Cunningham. But the implication is ain't real happy about voting for Calcutta Ham and If you look at his favorability ratings, you know how much you know scales on scale of one to one hundred one, hundred whole lot in zero is not at all how do you like this candidate? How favorable are you to them poll after poll is showing that his favorability numbers are taking a hit so i. Think partisanship will be enough to carry it over the line, but I do think that the mobilization around Cunningham is it going to hurt him at the margins and we've even seen that the guy has If you're young, he has ghosted up people for the most part. If you're ordering a basketball fan, he's been playing the four corners. He's been passing the ball around trying to run out the clock and maintain the small lead so that October surprise that Kate was talking about really happen in North Carolina and I think it's played out exactly the way that she talked about it perhaps playing out. So Senate in Arizona is there. Is there. Is. There any. person who should have lower self esteem than Martha mcsally so sorry. Sorry. I mean I'm not. I don't try to be nonpartisan I just don't it. But I told me to be completely rude. But I mean you you got handed a seat you lost it. You got handed another you lost it Arizona has gone from. No, Democrat. No Democrat, representing it in the Senate in since the early eighties I believe and in the course of two years Martha mcsally has. It is it unfair to say that it's Martha mcsally who has lost both of those seats? Is She just a victim of a political time? That's not right for her or is Martha mcsally that? Disliked in the, state. Of Arizona. I do think it has to do in in large part with how She's aligned herself on issues and trump and and sticking to that, and not a branching out in the same way in a very different way from the candidates that we had in cinema and twenty eighteen and Mark Kelly. Currently where the difference being both those Democrats ill certainly are Democrats but at the same time they seem in a lot of ways like John McCain or Jeff Flake where they're still willing to speak their minds when it's not necessarily party line. And I think that. It just the rhetoric around that was really does tend to appeal to Arizona voters in the sense that we do have a lot of independence and a lot of people who are libertarian and they kind of respect. The idea that someone isn't necessarily beholden to party you know or or to President, and I think that really has been perhaps disadvantage for from Sally because she would be I mean, is it fair to say that she is more unpopular in the state of Arizona than trump? Is I mean? She's do you think that race is over practically? I mean I know you don't want to call it specifically. I. She she has run behind Mark Kelly by large margins since he got the nomination is that right she? Yes she has an if you look at. The tracking Mike Realclearpolitics, and you look at it across time I? Mean there's been movement, but it's been little. Movement and if you look at the charts, I'm his Ben I have her for a long time even before he thought the Democratic nomination either the poll suggested that he was running well against her and that simply continued, he has also done a remarkable job for his first time I reading right running for office. I did a remarkable job as a first time candidate, excellent job fundraising and an an excellent job. I'm really just holding his own in the in the debate for example that he had against Sally and so I. Think Those things certainly point in his favor you know in her dissident, it means. I think the stranglehold for her was she did lose the seat to a cinema. By a close margin by two point, four percent in two thousand, eighteen cheated takeover this that had been formerly held. By. McCain at. But was. Given to her after John, Kyle temporarily filled in for just a little bit So it was handed to her and I think that time part of the problem is for her is a lot of people still have framed her getting that scene around the fact that she did lose to cinema in two thousand eighteen. So, so people were you're saying people were dissatisfied with the fact that she lost and still got to become a senator and she's carried that weight. And everything that that's a possibility for you know really her not being able to break through on her own as a candidate at the other thing that I would just note is that needs she disagreement was the fundraising I'm mark Kelly's campaign his stronger job getting those those dollars in, but the mkx Sally has. So it sounds like it sounds like. Joe Biden will have no coat tails if if anything he's not gonNA. Kelly doesn't need Joe Biden's coat tails in the state of Arizona, but it sounds as if though maybe you were saying Chris that cal Cunningham may actually by perhaps on. Either Biden coat tails or anti trump. Backlash in North Carolina. Think possible. Again, it's close where within the margin of error, but it looks like his is still has a lead in most polls. It was an average of about four and a half percentage points us up. It looks like it's drop to more like two percentage points. Now I think part of it is the is is trump is is sort. Of this really difficult dance partner for Thom. Tillis the Republican, Right. He's Tillerson's representing a Republican era, a swing state but he's obviously Republican he can't alienate the Republicans to much. But on the other hand, he can't go too far to the other side either in be sort of a full throated critic of president trump. So I think part of it is. Cutting Hams candidate quality until the recent scandals part of it is the state mood part of it is this difficult dance that Thom Tillis had to to do. Tillis also has a long history as you know north, Carolina politics and made a lot of friends but also a lot of enemies when he was in the North Carolina General Assembly and the General Assembly here was A. Famous or infamous depending on your perspective for passing a series of laws that were considered among the most conservative in the country. Want to take some of the quickfire questions that are sent in by our listeners specifically for boats of you. If you're listening, you can send in your questions to us by email podcasts at politico dot com or on instagram or twitter at politico on. Kate will start with you. I. Guess that says, Does that say man from Los l.? That's Mari. Sorry Mari from Los Angeles Asks Democrats seem to have gained ground in Arizona much faster than Georgia or north. Carolina why? I think that's an excellent question. Going back to the Senate race, I think that it's a combination of not only things being high stakes at the presidential level and. Both sides knowing that a sticks the presidential level but having that very competitive. Set well, as about competitive, but having a very unusual Senate race in which. Mark Kelly's campaign again is ahead in the polls has done a better job on racing I. think that in comparison to previous campaigns, this is where we're seeing. Boost grassroots campaigning, and just the fact that parties matter and in this particular campaign Democrats have done a much stronger job than they have in years past really getting those people registered and you know what they hope of forces also sending in those ballots. Okay Chris Brianna from Topeka asks people keep talking about the silent trump voter are they out there in North Carolina? Unsure they are out out there in North Carolina. it's not you know we'll see right we'll see what happens after election day I'm sure they're here I tell you that you know when I talked to folks that are trump voters they don't seem to be very silent road mean they're pretty proud of of the person they're supporting I. Think this salad trump voters that perhaps existed in the twenty sixteen election are exactly. The kind of people that were turned off by four years of pretty divisive rhetoric. So I'm sure there are some of them. I do not see them as being the people that are going to drive this election of trump wins North Carolina it's going to be close in. It's going to be kind of I, think as we expect I, don't think there's going to be this huge groundswell of trump support that we don't expect. I'll tell Brianna wake county is not. A. Conservative county it's very blue and. They're more trump signs randomly scattered around this game. They aren't very shot here. So I don't know maybe they're shy elsewhere but if you're going to be shot somewhere, you'd think you'd be shy here in downing. Them. David from ten. Asks should Biden be campaigning more the state if he wants to flip Arizona. I I think that's an excellent question. I would say that would those when presidential candidates visit, they got free media coverage right? Because it's not just that they're visiting and talking with some people who support them but they get that local news that covers them add it certainly would be a boost. In comparison, we saw a Biden Harris in a visit Arizona October eighth. I believe it was in comparison you to trump has been out. Consistently. Of course, the Biden Harris campaign are a little bit at a disadvantage to the extent that they're not holding large rallies in the same way but the trump campaign feels comfortable doing because of the Francis and how they feel about the coronavirus, and so that is certainly a constraint. But I would say that if the Biden campaign I could come out that certainly would help boost motivation on the democratic side. Chris Lilley from Greenville asks is this the last year? Republicans have a demographic chance for the presidency. A great question of of course when a witch Greenville South Gone North Carolina asking the same thing we're going to say, North Carolina. The. Other one's closer to you out. That's all right. We'll take the one of the eastern side of the state where we're president trump was not long ago. No, I, don't think so I I think I think we're going to have a two party system for the foreseeable future or longer, and I think the parties have a way of adapting I. don't see this is the death of or perhaps even the decline of the Republican Party I think we're GONNA have a two party country a polarized country for a long time to come I wanNA. Follow up on that one with both of you. Is. What do you see for the future of each of your states? When it comes to? Presidential race in twenty twenty, four, kate do you think Arizona has shifted towards the Democrats and will remain a swing state or do think that come? Two, thousand, twenty, four? This. This race, this year is so much about trump that come twenty, twenty, four, Arizona. We'll head back towards the conservative Republican side is are you permanently swing state or do you think that this is just a a trump anomaly? Sort of both I mean trump certainly makes. More of a nominally but I think if you look at where. Has Been With at you going back in time the margins in support between the Republican and the Democratic president candidates happened shrinking over time and so they become much much slimmer I think maybe what's Different is people really realizing that wo- those margins have been so much slimmer and to the extent that they realize that in the Democrats. See that they now have a chance in prefer are previously seen as a red state I think makes a difference and so my bet is the Airasia continues to be a swing state in twenty twenty four. it may maybe a little different tone to the question for North Carolina because it's been. Swinging for the last few cycles. Is Is this in North Carolina an anomaly is simply that North Carolina and like much of the rest of the country is shifting little bit leftward simply because of Donald Trump do you think twenty twenty four will be a good year four Democrats in North Carolina or do you think the Republicans are going to have the ability to bounce back Trump is not on the ballot anymore whether he wins. Right. Trump on the ballot will will probably help but I think it will be a swing states certainly in twenty, twenty four, and for the foreseeable future we I don't think we've experience the kind of demographic shift. Arizona has experienced So I think they're path is probably been a little bit different than North Carolina but I'm also seeing some of the other growth states in the south slowly moving back towards the Democratic Party right again, we're seeing this just the fact that we're having a conversation about South Carolina. Perhaps, a Democrat winning their right. Even odd happened with I. Know You know by it I listened to your Jessica. Wake me. SAID TO AGREE But I think I think what Ariza's don't in all seriousness is to is to start to build a party back in the state of South Carolina and so I think that can have an effect and I think what's GonNa Happen to North Carolina is we're going to stay fairly steady as some of these other states move I think we'll be herbal state a squishy stayed a- battleground states you pick your average adjective will be there for years You've Jamie Harrison wins I'm going to bed because it's over. As far as I'm concerned Jamie Harrison, wins Biden. Has One he might have won Texas I'll find down the morning I can go to bed. I just don't see Jamie here's winning as much as I might love that. The last question to ask both of you. We we started this podcast Got? TRICO vid. Believe it or not. I can't believe I remember a time when we weren't coveted but Specifically kind of to get people from either side of the aisle. Talking to the other side and trying to get folks to come together. And have constructive conversations. Better. Chance to Jamie Harrison wearing South Carolina that. And we slowly have morphed it over the over the. Past months. To have just one person on or to just have experts on that weren't necessarily partisan because it's very tough to get anyone from the right and the left to come together and have a simple discussion. It's just it's it's not easy and I have. Personally. Theorized hypothesized that perhaps the fact that I grew up in A. Swing, state I ran, for Congress, as a Democrat in a blood red district and have spent. So much of my life with family members who are of different parties than I am and walking down the street and seeing about fifty fifty the fact that I'm from a swing state. I believe has kind of given me a perspective that I don't necessarily see from. Democrat. Friends of mine in New York or California or state swear in if they are surrounded in what we might call a bubble. So. From two people who? Live and and study and research swing states specifically states where there are a mix of people. You know I wonder if you believe that. Politicians, who come out of North Carolina and Arizona are forced to moderate a little bit to listen to the other side more. So than perhaps a senator from South Dakota who's probably only talking to Republicans or a senator from Idaho is probably only talking to Republicans or New York is only talking to Democrats and Just in general I'll ask you the question. We this everybody. Taking into account. What you know from living in and studying swing states, Kate how the heck are we going to get along? That's an excellent question I would say that one. For those who've lived not since swing sates but I would say more specifically in competitive districts. I think how you think about things does does differ and if you have lived in the competitor competitive district knew that the politicians do have to moderate and people do have to make concessions I mean how we? Get Out of this might be more messy nece before up some clarity and in how. Other. But I think for districting really matters. I think I think I think it's possible I I. I think that people can. Anything. The last two years I think people can always get worse. But. You know what are the things I studied states a general as civility tracking. incivility across time and we're seeing changes and how all additions talk a bit You know it's one of those times where I would say I would love to go back to some previous norms I'm that we had to make. More possible. We've seen breaks, for example, in new national discussions where people call each other liars frequently that's become something. That's that's more recent finding. Dianne Feinstein just got trashed because she complimented. A Republican and gave him a hug. It's. It's. That's pretty bad right I mean whether you agree I mean I certainly disagree with Lindsey Graham personally but I am not gonna trash someone for having t for trying to be civil with him. Right and I think things are felt this really at least at this moment in time that they have in the past I, think that. One of the problems is everyone wants to see the other side is the problem and people want to do some introspection police their own side, and I'm really think you know is it's you know everyone being a Democrat that is only GonNa make you happy or on the other side everyone being a Republican I'm because that's not the way the world is and the community about introspection to maybe hold to hire norms. And whatever's best for a party Chris how the heck are we gonNA. Get along. A start with some bad stuff and I'll end with some big least off. Enough negativity so I. Would be twenty twenty bucks lead with something Kinda bad right. So two things that that that worry me and and keep me up at night a little bit one is when we move from persuasion elections to mobilization elections, right? So even in a competitive district or in a competitive state if winning and losing his about mobilizing the other side about persuading them then I think you. End Up with a Lotta, the same kind of vitriol, and some of these competitive states and competitive districts is a political scientist named Francis Lee who has a book called insecure majorities and sort of what she shows is that sometimes when you don't think you're going to be in charge for very long, that's when politicians actually may act the most extreme because it's like act now or never. So. That's your kind of bad news stuff on the good news and these words had never been put together before but some good news us on twitter. There's A. To to folks running for Governor of Utah, enough y'all saw this today but there is a Democrat and Republican and they're running against each other and have this ad everybody should find it where they say something to the effect of Hey we disagree on how we should get there. But we have the same vision for America and we're going to accept the outcome of the election whatever happens and they did an ad together together you should find it. It's incredible. So I those who? The Mormons in Utah Right there. A little bit different. God bless them. Well they might have something we can learn from. Disagree and yeah so I think that's Part of it, and there's a one other on the kind of reading material book. There's a a a political scientist named Lee. Druckman who has a book I think it's called breaking the two party doom loop and the book says which you would think it would say right it kind of makes his argument about how we're in this to to party doom loop and how we can get out of it and unlike a lot of political science work, you gotta ends with some proactive thoughts. If you read that book, You may not buy everything in it but I think it's a good place to start as we think about how to get along a little bit better. You're not going to get out of this. Without giving me a prediction kate make a prediction today. Do you think that that Arizona will send Mark Kelly to the Senate or Martha mcsally? Do you think it'll go for Biden or trump? Oh. I know I really try hard not to do these twits fictions because I do think that there is so much time left I mean I realize it doesn't seem like a lot of time. It will right now if we trust the polls, it would say at you know the Kelly will win and Biden but again I think about twenty sixteen and Twenty six teams we have by him that Komi letter come in on October. Twenty eighth and I. Think that really did change the course of the election. You know it is good for the Democrats that so many are early voting. But. Since mobilization matters, I do think that a last minute October surprise could change anyone's game. Okay Chris as a as a southern Democrat myself. I don't think that the letter personally made much difference in the state of North Carolina. I think that the the vote was baked for Hillary Clinton here but I want you Chris to make your prediction about twenty twenty in North Carolina Cal Cunningham tell us or. And Joe Biden versus Donald Trump with North Carolina. You know I'll put in some of the same caveats that Kate did anything can happen October surprise. I think all that is legitimate and sincere and and also think in some ways it is the definition of a swing state right is one that could go either way a battleground state, a purple state whatever you WANNA call in. So I I hate in some ways to say I think this is what's going to happen because the one thing. We know is going to be really close I mean I I think cutting. Hamza. Great example this cutting him tillerson cutting him as the lead right now there's no doubt about it. There may be more things that break could that matter? Yes. It could at the margins and boy, the presidential race here is I think Washington Post today at a poll and I think they even used the phrase too close to call so I will end their disowned fortunately. Chicken. Just today. Is a professor at the University Arizona in communications and in government and public policy. Chris Cooper is the Madison professor of Political Science and Public Affairs at Western Carolina University. You can follow him at Chris Cooper WC you on twitter and Kate. Kinski is Kate Ken Ski Ck in Kate and K and Kinski Kate K. E. N. S. K. I. on twitter also, both of you thank you so much for joining us and giving us a little bit of insight into these incredibly pivotal states. If you're listening in Arizona North Carolina please make sure you vote if you're not in one of these swing states please make sure you vote and also liked and subscribe and do all that fancy stuff on our. On Our podcast whatever you call it page I, don't know all this stuff and we'll be back next week with an episode of how the Heck Are we going to get along. Feeling loss than we've got the PODCAST for you lab. I'm Amanda Knox and I'm Christopher Robinson. Like to be absolutely stuck to wind up in a life I never expected but everyone's got their own personal maze complete with dead ends, shortcuts and mentors. So we're bringing you a podcast where you can get lost on a cruise ship in the trauma of Mother's murder in a presidential campaign or in a corrupt court surrounded by ravenous media a podcast featuring unlikely obstacles a terrorist husband, a shadowy cabal, a pregnant wife across the ocean. So come on, get lost with us as we bring you stories from Jon Ronson Lavar Gaz Mean Muhammad Dave Navarro Andrew Yang Malcolm glad well, and others expect dark and hilarious misadventures, controversial questions, and above all expect to arrive at unexpected places. Listen to labyrinths on the iheartradio APP on Apple podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. Are you ready mistress the hit fixing podcast Tuman Bay. Yes reaches thrilling final season. If you to saved. Must. From IHEART radio and gold hope productions. 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Blood Clot

Slate's Political Gabfest

1:07:43 hr | Last month

Blood Clot

"Support for the gap. That's comes from lord makers of the world's finest cbd products cbd is all the rage these days but tinier and brand lord jones is considered the gold standard from world class lotions and bombs to tinctures and decadent gumdrops confections law. Jones has an amazing selection of hemp derived. Cbd products if you're curious about what cbd can do for you. You'll wanna start with the best. And that's laura jones so go to lord jones dot com slash gabfest to get twenty five percents off your first order stay tuned a little later in the show to learn more about the finest dvd products available anywhere. Hello and welcome to the flip gap through april fifteenth. Twenty twenty one of blood clot edition. I'm david lots of city. Cast here in washington. Dc i'm joined has ever by john dickerson. Cbs isn't sixty minutes from new york city. Hello john dickerson. Hello david and by. Emily basil of the new york times magazine and yale university law school from new haven connecticut. Hello emily hello. Are people going to look at the hideous title and think. Oh my god shiva reaction i had. Okay we'll give it a better title accurate title. It is the most important thing happening right now. But it's like a little ghoulish. I've done much more ghoulish titles on today's show should the fda and cdc have paused distribution of the johnson and johnson vaccine. Because of rare blood clot. Then the trial of derek chauvin intersects with the killing of another black man in the twin cities by police officer. Will this horror end then. President by unveils his ambitious plan to reform the supreme court which is a commission commission. Big ass commission thirty six people on that commission. Yeah commission did you. Four times the size of the supreme court. Yeah but david. Did you see that one of the groups that wants to change. The court hired a bus with a banner that read retire brier and drove. It passed the supreme court. I thought of you when i saw that. A lot of people tweet that me. I don't know why people would send that to me because he's retired. You guys saw the news. But the google ad campaign where they air that tv in the masters which showed a montage people doing searches including former justice briar dressed in black robes typing into a search bar which is so funny that he would search that and briar. Then that quote from briar about how he he loves google products and he was being paid only fairly for the ad and the his endorsement had nothing to do literally nothing to do with the opinion. He wrote in google's favor in that oracle case which was his final opinion. That was pretty amazing. That was like the whole thing about ad with so funny. You didn't see that emily. I didn't see it because it did a dig zest there. There was a google versus oracle case. There is not enough construction paper in the world to handle the amount of glue created by this dead horse that you have been beating divided the gastonia people look for people who dread it and know how to hit the fast forward button. And the people. I salute you. This one was really quick today john. It's true yeah that's true but you can just cringe as you as you did when you said they hired a bus. I thought you meant. They hired a bus to ferry. The thirty six people on the biden commission because it requires a school bus to get them all together. All right. we'll talk. We're gonna get to that. That's how third topic. Let's start with our first topic. Which is that. Cases are rising in states like michigan and elsewhere driven by variance by impatience by incomplete vaccination rolls by rapid reopenings and the vaccination rollout itself has reached a worrying stage. We have a few states including your home state of pennsylvania. Emily where there's no longer enough demand for the vaccine supply and parts of the state. Which would be great news. Except that way way short of vaccinating. The number of people needed for her community in states like pennsylvania and also alarmingly. Johnson johnson vaccine has now been put on pause as the fda ncd investigate reports of clotting in a microscopically small number of recipients of the vaccine all of them young women six out of seven million people who received it so emily should the feds have paused. The jj roll up. I am so worried about this. And i had such a visceral reaction of despair. You know look like. I'm not one of the experts looking at the data. Obviously it's important for us to be able to trust that. Safety review is being done in a rigorous and thorough way. But this is such a tiny number of incidents. And i don't know ned lamont was the governor of my dear state of connecticut said this week you know. I really wish they hadn't done it this way like could they have told people about the risk. They have thought of categories of people who could continue to receive the vaccine since the blood clots have been in women basically of like childbearing age. Were there other ways to do. This don't risk undermining public. Trust more. broadly. Because that's my concern right. I mean this is about the actual risk of blood clots and then it's about how the public health messaging and i think there a real division you know some of the people defending the cdc's decision were saying we'll in order to trust vaccines forever. People have to know that if there's a problem it's reviewed and other people are saying. This is an overreaction to a tiny risk and it creates this grave danger of more vaccine. Hesitancy it's so complicated because obviously from what we know now. The numbers of complications complications are so small that policy in the vaccine even for a day even probably an hour. If you positive for an hour would almost certainly increase the amount of death and disease more people would get covert and die literal. I bet you could figure it out like if we pause vaccine distribution of this vaccine for ten minutes more people will end up dead or sick than than from whatever. Complications exist from this and but looking at a week to ten days minimum. So we but it's the same time you cannot have a situation where public health officials are lying or covering things up. You have to have some kind of transparency. I think we've learned from the trump era that this that when public health officials are misleading. When the dados fudged it has deeply dangerous consequences for public trust overall and one of the things that the long game think that biden public officials are engaged. I hope is to restore this trust and the way to restore the trust is weirdly is to diminish the trust in zine in the short term. I think i mean it's just like it's because we're so in the beginning and we don't know how it's going to go. I find it. It feels like you're trying to game out affects based on things that haven't happened yet. My first reaction to this kind of what we had when During the election when we were all teaching ourselves and everybody else that that slowing down of the counting the vote counting process was not assigned. There was funny business but assigned. The system was working. So if there's a pause here you know the way the scientists would look at it is. The system is working. There's a problem they're going to look into it not just because of the infinitesimal number of cases Where you know. Make sure that there aren't more but also to do what they did with astra zeneca which is to decide if this is something that we can just give jane jada people who are over age fifty and that's what we should do so that they can you know that they can modify what they're doing with it so far and then also anybody in this small number of cases of who are getting blood clots. They need to make sure they know how to treat them. Because what if there's a knock on effect of having both the vaccine in your system and the traditional blood clotting medication and there's some problems so it seems on the one hand like sciences at work. What what i was thinking through also is where a year plus to this and we still haven't figured out how to and we desperately need to the question of risk assessment because all of the decision making here from the beginning. There's always been a thing. Where basically the experts have to make a decision based on a tiny little amount of information and in this case the information is self reported. So it's fuzzy. They don't even know if these blood clots are actually coming from the vaccine. But of course if you wait too long till you have certainty you can have a huge disaster. And there was in fact a us disaster in nineteen seventy-six with vaccines Meant to combat swine flu which which gives evidence to both sides of this case on the one hand they thought that it was leading to heart attacks. They were wrong about that but then there were neurological nerve damage. That was a result of the vaccine that was given and the swine flu never showed up and i guess one other thing i'd throw in the mix is you can't be silent right if you know that. The blood clots are perhaps related. Federal officials can't just pretend it's not happening because that would obviously reduce trust even more. So how do we talk about a situation where we're perceiving risk. It may only be a temporary pause and have the public be able to sort of accept that as the natural and healthy course of things. I mean i. I think we're in this. We're in this just extremely difficult place because the there's a couple of different things going on one. There is a media alarmism around vaccine complications especially at the beginning of the vaccine. Rollout when there were a couple of of complications as there always are couple of reactions like allergic reaction. There were front page stories even even in places. Like i think you're times about this and that is was just dangerous. It was over weighting of something and that could diminish trust in the vaccines. There is an intentional effort by people. Like tucker carlson. They're cronies and i think they're guilty of a true moral crime about hyping up questions about safety lowering intentionally lowering the confidence in it which without it being based on anything real and that is like the doing that for disingenuous politically opportunistic reasons. And it's it's immoral and and terrible and then there's this situation where we just have a loss of trust. There used to be an agreed upon public trust in certain kinds of authorities and the loss of legitimacy in those authorities and the intentional sabotage of legitimacy of those authorities by primarily by republicans discrediting federal government leads to death. And that's a tragedy. And there's it's not easy none of these things it's easy to restore like you can't restore public trust such. That people will feel confident and stuff except by just demonstrating the you're acting responsibly. And that's kind of the bind. Federal officials are in right now. Is that the way to act. Responsibly is to do something that cost lives in the long term. But it's the only way to make people feel that these institutions are actually acting for the public interest. And it's it's tragic. Can i add one thing onto that. Is i wonder. So you have the traditional immunization of trust in institutions which we've been been suffering through and then i think we are in a special case which we've all talked about a lot here which is risk perception which humans do horribly anyway and then public and then all the things you identify. David are so you have risk. Perception is really tricky anyway. So you need kind of laboratory conditions to sit with to walk everyone through and then what you just described is anything but laboratory conditions right in the public health conversation. If you've got like chickens flying into the room and a marching band coming through and you know and the water mains breaking so but but even so even are all that there. Is this thing that we're all going to have to learn public health because we're gonna have to learn it because we're there another pandemic is coming is that there's a version of what happened in john. Jay that the public health officials at the beginning of this crisis were wrestling. Which is they saw the the net and the nascent signs of a huge pandemic and they were ringing the alarm bells and they didn't have enough data. They had the same kind of fuzziness data that we have right now with j. and j. and they were saying yes. Data's a little fuzzy. But if you wait and you're wrong catastrophe and so now it's interesting to public. Health officials are on the other side of the argument respected j. Because they're saying if you pause this too long you're gonna lose lives you're gonna lose more lives than you would save. But but both face the same situation which is how to get risk-averse politicians to do anything ahead of one hundred percent information which you will never have because once you one hundred percent formation. Everybody's dead and that's something that is i think distinct from the traditional distrust of institutions. Obviously it's harder when you distrust sushi's more buddy is a is a kind of public thinking we still haven't figured out and that's in a special class and we got to figure it out because more of these are coming. I mean isn't there one further layer of complication. Which is that. There have been many points since the pandemic began in which there's been a really hard choice to make and advice to be given and sometimes our american public health authorities have chosen something that in the longer run looks correct and in other cases they have not and so you know i think the notion that we are supposed to blindly. Follow them at least for me at this. Point is totally unsatisfying. And i think i brought this up a couple of weeks ago but watching this in the face of i think mostly dr fao choose resistance to one dose delay the second dose which would increase the number of people with complete but substantial vaccine protection in which the united kingdom has done with a lot of success. I mean when you look at their like hugely decrease death rates and greater than our decrease in case rates. You think like that looks pretty good. And if we're going to have a problem with the john jay vaccine could we use the other vaccines more smartly than we are right now and especially when you think about the spike in cases in michigan i mean i'm also sympathetic to the people who want more vaccine there like if we have a hotspot. Why not move it there. So i just don't feel like i live in a universe in which the track record shows that just trusting what they say is really the best and we have other models from other countries other other scientists saying other things. It's not like there's a scientific consensus on some of these questions emily. You're you're one hundred percent right about this. I guess. I feel that we're in a situation. Now we've had michael mean on the show a couple of times. Michael meena was a fierce advocate for early cheap testing. And it's it's clearly would have been so much better. Had we had early. Cheap extensive at home testing less accurate testing like it would have diminished the pandemic enormously. We didn't do it like the federal authorities the commercial authorities. Who make these things. Just didn't do it. We failed but at some point. You also have to say like okay we failed. It didn't happen and like we are on a path so there is a pretty decent vaccine rollout situation happening in the united states. We have massive manufacturing pretty good distribution our rates. Vaccination are much better than than most countries. It is in no sense perfect. They're clearly ways to improve it but like the main thing to do is to get people like just feel build confidence. Vaccinations and that kind of like the the sniping at it. The the constant sniping and undermining of whatever is happening is itself a problem like the point too. We should always like. oh why. aren't we doing this doing this. It's like it's like you can't like it's it's like being steer a car being steered by seven different people. And it's like you kinda kinda gotta make a bad and sort of say. We're doing this. we're doing it. We've got a system. We have a distribution setup. We have people know what the what the protocols are. Let's just do that. I mean people who've been criticizing donny. Power right they're not in the car driving. they're like the a lot of them are scientists. But they're not making policy nobody changes the public's perception of whether this is working or not which diminishes public trust. I mean are you saying basically like even if you have doubts about this. Move with the john jay vaccine that you just should be. I mean seriously question like should you just be quiet about it because all the question and second guessing is itself undermining public trust and like just better for everyone to just like go right or wrong. It's a it's a. it's a great question. i think to quest two things one. I think there's a danger in jumbling. All the mistakes together so d- the mistake meena was calling out was bureaucratic. Slow footed nece Which is just the clog in the system. You could argue with the fda and cdc on jayjay the bureaucracy bureaucracies moving too fast. So i think that's a distinct category for i think three categories you've named one is bureaucratic slow footed. Nece one is bad decisions. Poorly made and the third category is decisions made with the best information at the time. But because you're always making decisions in the fog of war some percent of those decisions are gonna turn out not to be right. Not because you didn't do everything that was possible but because by their very nature all the decisions that are being made in the key in with respect to covid nineteen are being made with so little information but you have to make them when you have to make them and knowing which of the three were in helps us figure out in the future how to do them. Better think dear question. Emily would be great. If people who were critical of the pause. Said we understand what you're trying to balance here. we understand. You can't just be about this but we also recognize that in a public health context you have to make a balance in favor of more lives saving. Therefore you shouldn't have paused or whatever but when they criticized that they do so within a framework of the notion that there is not certainty and gannett kind of precisely precisely. Because that's we need to build that up and you can be critical while still maintaining the floor of good faith because you all recognize that everybody's making decisions here on limited information and that's always the way it's going to be. I think those are two that as a critical point that you guys just made there which is certainty like like what you want is acknowledgement of uncertainty and and recognition of good faith when it has merited which seems merited in these cases and that would go a long way. I also think there's a third part which is treat the public like adults. Which is god. Yes like assume that when you tell them about risks they they can make decisions. Even though it's hard but people are people are you know. I bet you could go to thousands of people and tell them about what happened with jay and like you know. They're to mostly rational decisions about it. Can i make one more case for being good. Faith recognition of the uncertainties. The things the reason you also want to do that is so that when you have. Unsafe lies told by people in authority who no one hundred percent the opposite of what they were saying in public and in this case. I'm talking about the previous president that those kinds of lies which which are wreckage to public the public good in public safety stay glowing neon form and aren't muddled by by people. Say oh well. It's all a confusing thing and who could no better. That's true of some category of things but then there are affirmative lies which are in fact dangerous. They deserve a special category right gues- listeners. We have a live show coming up in less than two weeks. Wednesday april twenty eighth at eight o'clock eastern. We are going to talk about the first one hundred days of the biden harris administration. We're going to be live on facebook and youtube. If you go to slate dot com slash live you can get information and links to sign up for this live show. It's gonna be really fun. We haven't done a live. Show a virtual life show in a while. Of course we're looking forward to getting back doing real live shows. But it's going to be a while before we can do that and for now. Doing a show on wednesday evening with you will be delightful. And you'll be a chance for you to comment and chat and submit questions. And we're going to have a great discussion about what's happened in this first hundred days and this live show is presented by lord jones who are the makers of the world's finest cbd products. You have heard me talk about lord jones products before you'll actually get to see them. They're beautiful packaging. When you tune in to this live event and our listeners. You'll get twenty five percent off your first order. Lord jones dot com slash gab fest. So please go to slate dot com slash live to get more information about the april twentieth. Live show and links to sign up for it. There's a really stunning moment for me this week. Actually truthfully there were two of them which get at the breadth of violence committed against black men in this country by the police corron. Reo is the army. Second lieutenant who pepper sprayed by cops. In virginia it turns out. He had a family connection to eric garner. He called. Eric garner his uncle and eric garner of course was the man who killed by police in new york and at the same time courtney. Ross george floyd's girlfriend new and in fact been the dean at the school attended by dante right. The man killed by police in brooklyn center minnesota. It's just a sense of like my god. It's like violence is so pervasive it is so frequent that that people upon whom it is visited that. There's there's so much of it. It's it was stunning to me. So emily we have a lot of stuff. Going on around this issue would have the killing of dante right. We have the news. Reo case and then we have the chauvin trial. The trial derek. Chauvin the police officer on trial for murder in the death of george floyd. I don't even have a question. Just say something about one thing at this. Very moment that i've been thinking about is obviously it's important for children to be able to put on a strong defenses. You can't and that's how adversarial system works. We're watching the what is at least for me. This quite painful effort to effectively. Blame george floyd for his own death by talking a lot about his drug use and in the case of dante. Right there's a lot of discussion about how well there was a warrant out for his arrest and that warrant was for aggravated robbery. And so that's somehow justifies the shooting and like these are just four and then as. Reo case oh. He drove for a mile to lit gas stations. Of course the police are going to be suspicious of him and so therefore deserves to be pepper sprayed or or implicitly. And we're interrupting the hell out of you emily but the navarro drove to the filling station to be under the lights because he was worried about being pulled over by police on a dark road which is not something that that lots of police run into so in other words. It's compounded by what we're talking about. Sorry carol i mean i just struck in. Every instance by this problem of people are not like gleaming in pure. None of us are. There's always something that someone can find in a story that makes you look like you're culpable in some way. And obviously their degrees of that to but what the police do needs to be judged by that particular moment and action and what they are doing as well as like whatever they're responding to and one of the ways especially in the case of dante right like why are the cops pulling someone over because they have air freshener dangling from their back window to begin with like given what we know about road stops and how fraught they become. how much. Police are hyper vigilant in those moments as well as people especially i think often black men who feared these encounters for good reason like part of what we need to do is not create the conditions in which things spin out of control. And then. I think we should talk about this. Like horror of a police officer intending to grab their teaser. They're stun gun and instead pulling out a real pistol. And that is a fact of american policing that is about how us firearms and it just was obviously so. It's such a tragic outcome here. Emily your point. There is so important about certain kinds of traffic stops. Certain kinds of police interactions that you know that has been the the defunding police movement has gotten so mangled and and and so kind of abused In the political system but essentially the argument is essentially move. And you start this week. In the the question of kristen clark whose would be head of civil rights at doj on the biden administration. If if there was better thinking about these interactions so that they didn't take place in the fraud environment that they do. Then you don't have mistaken assuming let's for a moment that it was a mistake which from the audio. It sounded like it was a mistake. You even get into that situation. You don't even have these kinds of interactions because you think about policing differently which is to me. The most important thing distinct from the label. That's being used by those. Who in bad faith wanna make it sound like people who want to modify the way policing works wanna just fund the police completely. I mean there's so many terrible things. I mean one of the things i think about emily as you were talking with dante right or with george floyd like police are not in the business of justice. Their job is not justice their businesses job as law enforcement and to take care of the people in their charge so that justice can be done later. The idea that that dante right has a warrant out and therefore it's somehow justice for for the police to maltreat. Him is so off. The job of the police is to take great care of the people. They are arresting to to provide them the medical care. They need to provide them whatever they need so that they can then be tried if they need to be tried charge. They need to be charged. But it's not the police job to carry out justice. That's the system that we all support. And i think there's a there's like this can flation like the police are being allowed to do the jobs of prosecutors. It's justified and it's it's not really the job of the police to do that. And i think also that if you are someone who wants to emphasize like well. These people did this thing that contributed to the tragedy that followed. You're you're separating yourself you're imagining that you would be spared because you didn't have drugs in your system or you didn't have a warrant out for your arrest and i just like. I am so deeply unconvinced that i think like. Yes absolutely you know. Black men are at greater risk in these situations but they can also happen to anyone. There is an arbitrary random. Just scariness to this so if you like imagine that by emphasizing the wrongdoing of the person who gets harmed by the police like that is going to save you or people you love like. It's just not true emily. If you were driving night on a dark road and police paul do like flash. Do what would you do. Would you pullover or would you try to get to somewhere lit before you did it. I mean i find this. This question really alarming especially you have the case. I don't have the details in front of me. I just saw it flash across it news story of somebody who was shot and killed by an off duty police officer out of uniform because they didn't obey the off duty police officer out of uniform orders to do something and they were shot and killed in this off duty. Police officers gonna face no consequences. But it's like why should you obey the order of someone who's not in uniform. Who's off duty. Who pulls you over and tells you to do something. That's you shouldn't like it's terrifying situation. Yeah there were some interesting law professor posts about this whole like loop of. How do you know that something's illegal. Order in the second that it's being given when you know you're supposed to comply. I mean i think this question of whether you should drive somewhere with better lighting. I mean i am scared of the police. So my feelings about the police always total deference like absolute superfan behavior in any circumstance. Like i say sir. More times in the sentence. When i'm talking to the cops than any otherwise basically does it come out of my mouth once in a while to a doorman. That's it. But i just have this. And that's like what i teach. My children and i was in the car with my husband last year and he got into some argument with the police. And i was just like. Are you kidding like that is not what we are doing. We are doing what they said. I'm not saying that. I don't understand why other people respond differently. I just feel like they have the gun. And like that's all. I need to know in the actual moment but i do think that driving to somewhere where there are witnesses or whether lighting could be like a perfectly rational response especially if you're a person of color and a man and worried about that interaction in a different way than i am. I wish there were like a acceptable social or the police would accept a signal. Which is the us saying. I am going to drive to a place. Where there witnesses. And doesn't it'd be fleeing away to flash that light from the car but you're pointing. Lieutenant lieutenant osario the footage in that is extraordinary. I mean he's in his fatigues. He's got his hands out the window in a fully place and yet they're treating him like guns drawn. Yeah they've they've got their guns drawn One thing that strikes me though is that this was all captured on police cameras. The role the have played in putting us in this conversation. We're having its accelerated the realizations here of what happens in these. In these kinds of instances which is a pretty strong bulwark against has happened in the past which is and you see it in the in the the chauvin trial which is the kind of narratives being made out of whole cloth out of the air. One of the expert. Witnesses on children's behalf suggested that floyd might have been affected by the carbon monoxide. Even though it turns out the cop was a hybrid vehicle and he didn't even know if it was on in other words absent video. Either in cop cameras or bystanders. The you can you can see real time how the narratives get created in the courtroom. And all you need right. Emily is just one person on the jury to to have a reasonable doubt. And yeah and it's over well so so. Do you guys think that the chauvin trial verdict is is going to be an important marker. I mean i think if if chauvinist not convicted like they're going to be a really bad situation for this this issue in this country and if you know if he is convicted. I i have no idea. I'm not. I'm not following the trials. I'm not i don't know. I don't know whether the evidence warrants his conviction of lawrence convict and. i don't know that. I'm not on the terms. May i asked two questions. One is giving your non-juror opinion do you. Do you think it's do. You think objectively the evidence warrants his conviction a which seems like you do be subjectively. Do you think it would be crazy for any one person on the jury to have reasonable doubt and then totally distinct question to both of you. Tell me what the smart thing is to think about. The effect of george floyd death. Now you're on the effect it's had in the larger culture and then the effect it's had with respect to the treatment of young black men by police and are those two things distinct shows a forty five minute documentary. I'm sorry i i i'm doing a podcast fermented soil in my brain. I mean my feeling about the trial to answer. The legal question is that the prosecutors were smart to give the jury choices about you know third degree versus second degree felony murder versus manslaughter and that If the jurors reject all of those avenues that that is going to to me shocking. I actually think that there is a way in which george floyd death because the video is so horrifying has been a kind of wake-up call for you know lots of people especially white people for whom this did not seem like necessarily you know such a pressing issue in america. I feel like there is more understanding of why the calls for racial justice have have deepened and expanded in the last year. Or so you know there is that I suppose benefit though. Obviously we don't want people to have to die so that other people can be more Aware i mean to me the big transformation. Besides the fact that the movement was a movement that galvanized more people at the biggest protest movement in american history and that in itself is important. Is there's a framing if this issue which which. I don't think most americans were aware of. And i think they now are aware of. That's really important. Which is that the police that the jobs. The police do shouldn't be done by the police that is that doesn't shift what the police do overnight but it will gradually shift so that i think there's now this understanding there's all kinds of things that happen that are under the police bailiwick now which are going to be gradually hived off and treated as their own special expertise that require different act than a than a big guy with a gun and that's going to be a huge shift that will happen over time and is great and it's i think honestly like many millions of people i know i suspect true because i'm one of them just never even had that thought until this year and down involve them in situations that it's not absolutely necessary i'm just going to go back to my perennial cry of caution about calling them one of the things that was pumped into my mind which isn't central to this question but it does seem a result is that i don't know whether this was revealed by the protests in the wake of floyd's death or whether it was in fact changed but i mean donald trump's response to the black lives matter protests some people mitt romney george w bush others talked about implicit racism and black lives matter and donald trump instead hit a familiar button which was basically to scare suburbanites and i'm not intuitive that it's what he said out loud and so he mashed button which had been successful in previous times it was not in fact it was the opposite of successful so the question is whether that was the case before the black lives matter movement or whether something was revealed in a change occurred as a result of floyd's death and the protests in the wake of it and i don't know what the answer is that whether it's revealed or changed but i think that's a societal change that took place distinct from the question of the relationship between police and the community plus members. 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Go lord jones dot com slash gabfest to get twenty five percent off your first order. That's lord jones dot com slash gab. Fest for twenty five percent off your first order. Lord jones dot com slash gap. Best support for the gab. Fest comes from the institute for justice bound by oath is documentary. Podcast from the institute. For justice it's new season explores why it's so hard to sue government officials when they violate the constitution. Even when the police or other officers clearly injure someone can be nearly impossible to obtain justice because a mountain of immunities. The courts have cast in the way for the last year. You probably heard about qualified. Immunity bound by oath. Explains the ins and outs of that horrific doctrine and plenty of others. You've likely never heard of for example early in our nation's history you could sue federal officer in state and federal courts and get justice. That's nearly impossible today. Because of roadblocks congress and the courts have placed in our way bound by oath explores these issues. It tells the stories of real people fighting for their rights and includes interviews with the nation's top scholars lawyers bound by oath is available on any podcast app. You may be surprised to hear that. Emily basilan does not have a new job. She is not one of the thirty. Six legal scholars appointed to the biden commission studying the supreme court. So emily were. You asked to join the commission. No but one of the co chairs is christina. Rodriguez who is a beloved law school classmate and colleague of if i can be set to have colleagues at yale law school so i'm very happy that she's front and center. I am sorry for her because she has joined a body seem designed maximally to fail thirty six members which is a ridiculous number of members on a commission has no power to do anything except just no power to issue binding recommendations. It can write. A report is what law professors really loved to do. Anyway it doesn't even really supposed to make recommendations at all as it's been explained to me analyzing different options join flock of law professor types meeting for one hundred eighty days. It sounds like over zoom. It literally sounds like it is my nightmare emily. I'm sure these are all fantastically brilliant scholars and thinkers lawyers and what a tremendous waste of time. But what are they going to consider. What are they going to. Yeah well right. They're going to consider the various options. Everything from expanding the number of justices on the court which obviously has become a rallying cry for some liberal advocacy groups which are really worried about the fact that conservatives are firmly in control of the court and then they can consider lots of other options and so we talk about the other ideas because they're both more like maybe realistic and also probably in the medium to long term. I would argue a better fix. And i am going to cite to a piece that ryan door floor and sam moines wrote in the atlantic which i really appreciate it because i thought it did such a good job of laying out that if you wanna talk about expanding the justices or court packing you're talking about who is on the court and you are. You know in the short term like the democrats could add a few justices and take control until there's unified control of congress and the presidency from the republicans. They'll been the ascendance you end up in a kind of like what's the dr seuss books. That hasn't been canceled. The butter battle book the beetle but the butter battle book the butter. It's not you you'd get another another alliteration. I mean it's basically like an arms race in the longer term now. I mean. I'm not saying that you couldn't justify adding a justice or two as a kind of payback for the combination of the republicans in the senate not considering maryland's nomination because it was the end of obama's presidency and yet rushing through amy conybeare because it was the end of president trump's presidency but in the longer run. I'm a little skeptical. That you know rationing up. The number of us is a great idea. But what ryan in san we're talking about is changing what the court does how much power it has an american life and if you are skeptical of judicial supremacy of the idea that are least democratic branches weighing in about like every important issue in american life. This is a lot to attract it both for conservatives and liberals because there have been periods particularly the nineteen sixties and early seventies in which the court was a real friend to liberal causes. And i think has. It's still is sort of running on the fumes of that. Warren court era among liberals but it has also been like a seriously reactionary force at other key moments in american history like the end of reconstruction and the lochner era. And almost wrecking the new deal. So if you worry about that you might want a court. That doesn't have all the power it has now. And so for example you could have a court where you have to have six justices sign on to overturn a statute that would change the power relationship among the branches of government right. Because you're saying okay we're gonna accord more deference to the democratically elected branches that. Pass this law and give less power to this. Very small number of people who wear black robes. There are other possibilities in that domain like stripping the court of jurisdiction of certain kinds of cases that i think deserve more of an airing and greater public understanding. They have now and so maybe the commission can help with that. How can those decisions those have to be. Statutorily done with that. Have to be constitutional. Could the court itself. Could the supreme court itself declare like we. We say that. Only six to three decisions overturn statutes. Where does that change. Come from i guess my question the change would come from congress and the court would probably be inclined to try to strike it down but there have been other moments of joyous diction stripping in various points in american history. It's not like it's on of and the constitution itself has jurisdictional limits on what the federal jurisdiction stripping i think like in the eighteen sixties that was Part of the fighting going on when they were changing the number of justices there were also jurisdiction stripping proposals and i think at least one of them passed historian can fill this out a correct me but in any case this idea that congress can set limits on what the courts can see and hear like that comes from the constitution itself. When it passed they talked about how you had to have a certain amount of money at stake in a case and there had to be some reason that a federal as opposed to state court was going to hear it so like that idea. I mean i guess the supreme court could strike it down but i mean i it seems to me like it has a really firm basis in the american system. Move from carta horse. Because i think please. This is all cart talk. But i think that the precondition for any of these changes happening. And also i think for people understanding going on to and maybe everybody knows this but There's a way in which this debate feels like well. Democrats sour grapes. They didn't win the presidency and they didn't get to name the people on the court and you tough luck for them. Why are they trying to change this. Venerable americans to shen just because they lost in fair game. So i'm relying on all these figures from ron brownstein but if you look at it and then this is also a question you emily. Which is the central thing for these thirty six members to answer the question of whether the supreme court which was designed in some ways to be not designed in some ways it was designed to be slower than the passions of the moment has gotten so detached from the current moment that it's broken so democrats have won have won the popular vote in seven of the last eight presidential elections but the republicans have controlled the white house which names the members of the tarim court for twelve of past twenty eight years. So that's one of the ways in which the popular will of the people is disconnected from the person who's naming the supreme court justices then you have republicans have controlled senate for twenty two of the forty years and this is according to brown scenes piece which quotes lee druckman of the new america. Think tank. which is that only one. Two year period during the span of time that republicans controlled the senate has been the case that the gop is represented a majority of the american public so most of the time the gop which is ratifying the supreme court picks of the presidents who have not been elected by the popular vote does not represent a majority of the american public. They represent geographical distribution of the senate. And so the question then is is that combination of representation in both the senate and the presidency broken with respect to the way these justices should be picked and so undemocratic that it it represents a something that the founders would not have wanted. Is that the central question. You have to figure out. I emily before you can create the conditions for them a solution to that problem. I mean i think those those facts are really important context for the extreme concern about what the court could do next on among liberals right. It's the sense that if the court lurches to the right it's going to be standing in the way of You know potentially powerful progressive era of government in a way that is out of step with the american electorate. And we've seen this happen before i mean. This is the lochner era in the early twentieth century and then following on the you know the early decisions by the supreme court that almost wrecked the new deal. It was a very conservative set of justices effectively appointed by previous presidents. Who are having this kind of like death grip To be dramatic on what people were doing to try to protect workers. That's like the lochner era. There's all this You know labor protective legislation passing. And then there's like fdr in the new deal and trying to save the country from the depression and again like you know pro worker efforts that the court is is obstructing. So that's exactly the concern. And i think you know i i've written about this regularly. I feel like it's really hard to take this issue to make it feel super urgent and mainstream at a moment when the court isn't doing something obviously dire so right there's always a dynamic like if the conservative majority of six does not wield its power in dramatic society like altering fashion than the heat behind these efforts to reform. The court is going to dissipate. And it's just a little hard to tell right. Now you know in a sense. I would argue that This is sort of a backward argument but in some ways. President trump did the court conservatives a favor because his challenges to the election were so ridiculous and over the top and insane that almost all the justices said like forget it. We're not doing this. There was a really unified rejection by the american. By the whole american judiciary of those challenges that makes the court and the treasury look very reasonable and moderate like reality based but that doesn't have a whole lot to do with these other hugely important issues like whether states can have strong gun control laws. You know what happened to the future of reproductive rights religious freedom like the all these other issues. that are the usual hot button. Issues for the courts. I want to turn back to another subject. Nothing to do with this. Which is i'm just obsessed with the fact that they've named thirty six people to the commission which is a terrible number. If you've ever been on a committee you know that you can't get anything done if there's more than twelve seven and matt. Oh i'm just weird. I actually imposing this as the question maybe listeners. You can what would thirty six people. What kind of entity would work with thirty six people. I think high school football team. That's about the right number rights. Go football team sandbagging operation. If were trying to stack sandbags against watch. What sizing river afir- well fire in a choir ready six people four times nine. That's good quite excellent. Also where do eighty percent of the members of the thirty six member body what to colleges. Did they attend. Uc santa barbara. Steria and i just want to say. I am representing the twenty percent on the committee. Harvard and yale people walk some both of those jones's qualcomm. We believe in staying connected and you can see us wherever five is helping transform telemedicine supporting remote education and powering mobile. Pc's the invention ages here. Learn more at qualcomm dot com slash invention age. Let us go to cocktail chatter when you're having a cocktail party in the future which has thirty six people which might be good for a cocktail party. I don't know not quite yet not yet. I'm not saying now. I'm not saying insane in the future. I'm saying what would be a good thirty. Six people is a good number of people for a cocktail party. Potentially just thinking about how far in the future do you think we will be when we can. In fact have thirty six people at christmas party. Holiday party okay right. Do you think sooner or later this summer. No okay indoors indoors. yeah. I don't know what what you what your guests i just put. A marker down december december eighth should february will holiday parties. Everyone has to wear a robe. Though emily i really liked the idea of holiday parties being possible with lots of people next winter and i think over the summer outside as long as there's lots of air circulation seems okay. Let's imagine are cocktails that situation. John what will you be chattering about at that holiday party. Watch the netflix series. Call my agent. Oh definitely have you watched it great. Yeah i mean just do it. I'm not gonna say anything more. Because i think i'll ruin it. It's very funny. It's just the right amount of lightness but it has some very subtle and super smart little story lines in. It was just what we needed. Also i i also liked actually the irregulars which is a sherlock holmes fan. Fictions quite short. But i also quite like that emily chatter. This is a sad chatter. I am feeling very about a death. Penalty case in tennessee the defendant's name is purvis pain and he was convicted in the nineteen eighties of this horrible double-murder like horrible of mother and her two year old so his story from the very beginning is that he heard cries for help because his girlfriend lived next door. He walked into this apartment. There was an knife still in the body of this woman and so he tried to pull it out got blood on his hands. Got blood on. His clothes. tried to call the police with the phone and so his fingerprints are on the phone. So yes there is physical evidence that implicates him but his story has always been that he was not the actual murderer. It is such a terrible crime. It seems like a crime of passion. And there's no evidence that he was intimate with this woman or would have had a reason to do this anyway. Low these many years later the shelby county district attorney's office amy wire Written about talked about before for many years resisted additional dna testing anywhere By the time they did it. The evidence was degraded and so it was sort of inconclusive. The remaining issue in this case is that purvis pain has added low in terms of his. I q he is someone who may very well have an intellectual disability and the supreme court ruled executions of people with intellectual disabilities unconstitutional several years ago but this judgment was already final and so purchase pain has never been able to bring his intellectual disability claim before any court to get it heard and that just seems unconscionable so the tennessee legislature is actually considering a bill right now that would address this particular issue and my understanding is the tennessee has never had a claim come forward like this one and it really seems like something they should fix. One big question is that the legislature is almost done at session and so are they going to make a priority of passing the spill and giving this man a chance to make this. You know critical legal argument. And there's also a petition for clemency. In front of governor lee in tennessee so anyway this is a just really upsetting death penalty case that is looming. I guess the last thing i'll say is that executions. Were on pause and tennessee. Because of covid until april ninth but now an execution date could really be set at any time reopening Exactly that's amazing that you can't. The supreme court has outlawed this but you cannot actually appeal it. Bring the claim because like your judgment was final. yeah My chatter was sent to me. By many people saw it across many channels subaru's far of our best listener was the first person to be to it. Which is the united states gird yourself is entering a boba crisis that because there's a whole bunch of shipping containers piled up at west coast ports. the shipping containers contain the tapioca balls. That helped make our delayed and boba houses barbershops boba tea houses around the country are about to experience a massive shortage a shortage that could last for two months. Some of you may know. I am a absolute addict. I have bubble tea every day. And i don't really know what's going to happen if there was a period at the beginning of pandemic where i didn't have bubble tea because pandemic shut everything down. There was no bubble tea on offer. So there's probably a month right in at the pandemic until he ordered my own boba and I i don't wanna live in a world with and can you. Can you start boba. i have some. I have some. I've got some. But i don't good at making it yourself. It seems like you would rather have other people well the bobo. The bubbles actually making the bubbles at home. It's actually better. The t- that i make is much worse but the bubble. Can you help a brother. Out if We get into the pinch. Their my son is mad for mobility and goes like to one to the other end essentially of the island to go his old. What's his favorite one. I knows that it's inconvenient and fire. Away yeah i because you're always as a parent taking the guys is generally the one that people are very. No you're always taking readings of what your children are truly interested in what they will exert effort because towards and this is a real This gets gets real activity and you tell them to call me and we'll figure out a way. Why is the t you make worse. That seems surprised. Well because the that love is a really creamy milky. And i don't know i don't like tea. I don't make that much. And i don't know how to make a creamy milky tea. Gotcha wait we have an answer. Bow sugar in korea town. Oh yeah that's that must be one of those kind of postmates dates my boba initiation. It's very brown degree ones. I mean people like them. They're very sweet. They're even sweeter than regular puppy but good. He's got jury as the metabolism to carry that off listeners. You have continued to send us gray. Chatters you tweet them to us at slate gaffe. Please tweet them to us. At f s some articles on work of culture movie song. Historical episode is wonderful. Strange horrifying magnificent tragic and most of all worthy of discussion at your cocktail party. And we will call you about it and hopefully you can do it on. The air and today's listener chatter comes from gabe jacobs. Who's talking about ninety nine percent invisible episode about the freedom house ambulance service in episode. I listen to. I can't wait to hear what gave say about episode. Four zero five freedom house. Ambulance service tells the story of young black men from pittsburgh in nineteen sixty. Six who along with. Phil jalan dr peter. Safar recognize the problems of having the police who had very little medical training act as the first responders to medical emergencies especially in black neighborhoods. These men went on to become the first. Emt's saving over two hundred people's lives in the first year of freedom house ambulance services existence alone. I personally can't imagine living in a world without emt's and i think this story is a great example of how distributing funds to train services particularly around health and mental. Health is better for public health and safety than throwing additional money at the police force in hopes that they can serve the public in ways. They were never trained to do well. Those people certain lame appreciate. They figured something out that we were just talking about ten minutes ago. Tastic example of defunding the police and shifting the responsibilities. that's our show for today is produced by jocelyn frank or researcher. Is bridget dunlap. And we say a sad sad and also happy goodbye to faith. Smith faith has been responsible for live events. Here the gabfest for years. She's going off to a great new opportunity and we're going to miss her terribly because faith could get anything done and do it with good cheer and competence and intelligence and it's just like a better colleague. You cannot imagine we will miss you so much you know go forth and prosper for sure. Thank you face. Gabriel roth is editorial director audio june. Thomas mending producer. Alicia montgomery is executive producer of slate. Podcasts you should follow us on twitter at athlete gap best. Tweet your chatter to us there for. Emily basilan john dickerson. I'm david plots. Thank you for listening. We'll talk to you next week. Hello slate plus. How are you you know. The world is really terrible. And tom wyman in the new york times reminded of that this week tom. I'm mean is a philosopher. Who wrote a piece for the times which was headlined. Why despite everything. You should have kids if you want them in a time of covid. Nineteen climate change catastrophe. Having a baby is an act of radical. Hope and if you read this piece it's actually. It really does not make you wanna have really makes you really worried about having a baby because it's it's just about all the horror that we could be leaving to our children. All three of us have children multiple children and the seven seven children among the three of us. We've clearly made a choice. But you can imagine you know a young adult trying to make a decision about whether to procreate and it would be a hard decision and you certainly like people make choices all the time not to have children for any number of reasons but if you wanna have a child should you hesitate because the world that they face is you know could be catastrophic that there will be catastrophic climate change. It could be like just absolutely terrible. Even if you are an american living in a prosperous country the world is the world is not good and we should note that there is a baby bust going on because of the pandemic poor at least correlated with the pandemic where there are hundreds of thousands of few were unexpected Being born to americans. Right so jackson a sense of urgency into our hundred thousand fewer. I wonder why that is. Why do you think that is. Why do you think that baby best happened is it. People had less sex people deliberately. Hooking up less people were what i mean in other times of baby buffets correlated with economics right where people see declining job opportunities and they worry about whether they can afford to have kids Yeah which which suggests that it may not be completely motivating reason but he suggests some restraint which then makes you think if people will be restrained with respect to that. Why couldn't they still their impulses with respect to not wearing masks. But perhaps that's a conversation different time. Well just leapt off into a whole different. Maybe who are doing maths we're having riots sex and are in fact having lots of children. Let's go back to our question. About whether to have baby. So i will just say that a selfishly and personally having children is like the most rewarding enriching immersive experience i've ever had. I cannot imagine my life without it. I've not pushing it on anyone who doesn't want to do it but the idea that you wouldn't do it for kind of abstract worry reason while i think that's perfectly rational i would let it go because you only have one life and if you wanna have children it's such a there's just i don't think there's another experience that's like it and so i would not give it up because of some fear of what could happen in the future even though that is a real concern but what i mean you feel it. Fear about what can happen in the future is abstract. Isn't that isn't that part of science and our ability to be rational creatures to know that the future there's certain aspects of the future that we're pretty sure are going to happen and they're alarming to imagine a loved one having to live through the abstract about time line right. Sorry john no no no. It's what's i guess. It's is it abstract or is it concrete because because implicit in the idea that you wanna have kids that is the humanity will fail. I mean the thing is like a humanity has been doing better not worse for the most part low these like four hundred years right. I mean not in every place. Not in every instance. I don't mean to be overstating it but for the most part life is improved materially. And so while it's possible that will reverse. And i mean i do think clamoring huge threat and another pandemic as a huge threat and like those a meteoroid striking the earth and emily the way you tossed in a meteor strike there. I thought i think is exactly wrong. But i thought that was like a real thing that we should be worrying about much more than we do. I didn't mean it in a it felt earlier. Felt to me like oh you're like cavalierly media or with the other two coach. I think future people who worry about the future. Get really like we should actually do. Something about meteors my sense from my son who thinks about all of this much more than me but what i was gonna say. Is that for me. This has to do with time line like it seems to me entirely likely that in like two hundred thousand years gave fans that was just a teaser to hear the rest of our sleepless conversation. Go to slate dot com slash gabfest plus to become a slate plus member today.

lord jones george floyd emily supreme court john dickerson chauvin biden commission eric garner cdc google Hello david Emily basil emily hello dante fda Emily derek chauvin
Ep. 705 - Easier For A Kamala To Pass Through The Eye Of A Needle

The Ben Shapiro Show

52:06 min | 2 years ago

Ep. 705 - Easier For A Kamala To Pass Through The Eye Of A Needle

"Kamala Harris does her big townhall Howard Schultz, preps, his presidential run and Democrats talk up Marxism. I'm Ben Shapiro. This is the Ben Shapiro show. Man. A lot of news coming your way. And also a lot of me blowing my nose because this cold just will not leave. We'll get to all the news in just a second. But first, let's talk about the fact that in two thousand eight the US nationals that was ten trillion dollars by the end of two thousand eighteen that that was over twenty one trillion dollars. It is rising now like a hockey stick. If you don't think that we are sitting on a house of cards. You're living with your head in the sand. But since you're listening to my podcast that probably means that you're smarter than the average American. So what exactly is your plan? Can you afford another hit to your retirement like the last downturn? When the SNP dropped fifty percent. Well, he probably should be diversified. Hedge against inflation hedge against him, certainty and instability with precious metals gold as a safe haven against uncertainty. My savings plan is diversified and yours should be as well. The company I trust with precious metal purchases Birch gold group, and thanks and right now, thanks for a little known IRS tax law. You can even move that IRA or eligible for one k into an IRA backed by physical gold and silver. If that's something that you're interested in doing look back, historically when the bottom falls out of everything else. Go does. Tend to safeguard savings. There's a reason Bruce cold group has thousands of satisfied customers countless five star reviews. An a plus rating with the Better Business Bureau contact Birch group right now in a free information kit on physical precious metals comprehensive sixteen page kit showing how gold and silver can protect your savings. And again, how you could legally move that IRA or four one K out of stocks and bonds it into a precious metals IRA, if that's something you're looking for to get that no cost. No obligation catches, go to school dot com slash Ben again that his Birch goal dot com slash man. All right. So it is obvious that the radical democratic base has now taken over the entire party because there are no centrist left to a running for president in twenty twenty in the Democratic Party. It's amazing to watch as members of the media label random members of the democratic coalition centrists. So they've been making the claim that comma Harris, the Senator from California is the new centrist. She's a centrist voice as opposed to Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders now the reason that they are saying that is because she had a history as a prosecutor. So that means that naturally, she is more centrist than a lot of the. Other democratic members of the coalition. The only problem is she isn't as she she served as a prosecutor because she felt that it'd be a gateway to higher office. But the reality is that Kamala Harris is every bit the radical of Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders or Alexandra causing Cortez or anybody else, you think is the face of the radical Democratic Party. Now, she's getting hit from the left today. And the reason she's being from left is again because of that prosecutorial career there's a clip going around of her speaking at the Commonwealth club in San Francisco, really nice, folks. And it's it's a clip of her back when she was attorney general of the state of California talking about how she used to prosecute the parents of kids who are truant. Here's what she said. She said I believe a child going without a without an education is tantamount to a crime. So I decided I was going to start prosecuting parents for truancy. Well, that was a little controversial in San Francisco, and you can actually see her laughing in the tape shows. Frankly, my staff went bananas they were very concerned at the time. We didn't know at the time. Whether I was going to have an opponent in my reelection race. I said, look I'm done. This is a serious issue. I've got a little capital I'm going to spend some of it. And this is what we did we recognized as a prosecutor in law enforcement. I have huge stick the school system has a carrot. Let's work in tandem around our collective objective and goal which is to get those kids in school. Well, the internet was going nuts over this last night. Because the suggestion is that Kamala Harris was going after parents of kids who were truant, and really what you require is a social worker in these cases, you don't require a police officer. You know, it's kind of fascinating to watch as the left resonates to Kamala Harris, despite her record in this particular area. It is also important to note that when she says something should be tantamount to a crime. You attorney general do not get to decide what isn't is not. A crime. You do not get to decide that everything. You don't like is now enforceable by the police, if you do that makes you a centralized government control tyrant and income la- Harris does have those tendencies, but all that is being pushed to the side by the fact that combo Harris is an intersectional candidate, she's female, she's black. And that means that you must be a great great candidate. Even if she's spouting the same nonsense that all the other democratic candidates are spouting ad nauseam. So last night, you did a town hall on CNN. And it was just a wonderful example of CNN again, playing host to a propaganda piece on behalf of a democrat. So she's in front of a group of people probably, you know, four hundred five hundred people maybe and I love that CNN was like what she did this in Des Moines, Iowa and CNN was touting this online. Wow. Look at the crowd Kamo Harris can draw not to be not to be self-centered here for a second. I have not spoken to a crowd smaller than five hundred people in probably three years, and I'm not a Senator from California. So it's pretty amazing. That people are now touting this as an example for ability to get people out there. I mean CNN's broadcasting this thing live, you think CNN is going to be interested in hosting event that has much of empty seats in the background. It any case shoes estimates of questions about policy, and she proved just how radical she is. So she was specifically asked about private healthcare insurance. So she is a proponent proponents of Medicare for all the Bernie Sanders plan that would cost thirty two trillion dollars over ten years double the size of the federal government. It would also destroy the private sector. Now. There are a lot of folks who say well, you know, Medicare for all would destroy the private sector because health insurance would still continue to exist in the private sector. But according to comma, Harris, really wants it to destroy private sector medical insurance. She believes that everybody should be thrown onto government care. The you shouldn't be able to buy private sector health insurance. Because once the taxpayer is footing the Bill for Medicare number one. There's not going to be a ton of money left over to pay for private healthcare insurance to most people are going to be getting. In their healthcare insurance through the government of the United States and three if you have private health insurance competing with the federal government. That's not good for the federal government because the federal government is then going to have its Kerr rejected. This is the great hole in a lot of these systems. You can have supplemental health insurance in a lot of a lot of nationalized healthcare countries, for example, in Canada, you can get supplemental health insurance, although it took awhile for them to allow even that it Israel. Now, you can finally get supplemental health insurance in Australia. Most people have private supplemental health care insurance Medicare for all in Austria is really just for basic care. But for full proponents of Medicare for all people who believe that the government should cover all cost. It's gonna come down to rationing, and it's gonna come down to banning private healthcare insurance. Because remember let's say that there's a private healthcare insurer Blue Cross Blue shield or something and that private healthcare insurer can offer doctors a better reimbursement rate than Medicare. Well, who do you think the doctors are going to look to in order to get patients? Are they going to look to Medicare or are they going to look to the private healthcare insurers? That's why many. Stories have outright banned private healthcare insurance. They don't want to compete with the private sector. They wanna crowd the private sector out. So Kamala Harris was asked specifically about this. And she came down full-scale on the side of nationalization of the healthcare system and full-scale destruction of private health insurance. Here's come la- Harris doing just that. I believe the solution. And I'm and I'm actually feel very strongly about this is that we need to have Medicare for all. And you don't have to go through the process of going through an insurance company having them give you approval going through the paperwork, all of the delay. That may require who of us has not had that situation where you've got to wait for a provable. And the doctor says, well, I don't know if your insurance company going to cover this. Let's eliminate all of that. Let's move on. So in other words, ninety five percents of people in the United States have healthcare from their insurance company via their employer. You if you like your doctor, you will not be able to keep your doctor. If you like your plan, you will not be able to keep your plan. She wants to take all of those things directly from you. I mean, this is a massive segment of the United States economy. If you think that you're going to remove legitimate. The wicked trillion dollars from American industry with no questions asked and that people are going to be supremely happy when you take away their health plan. Then think again, the thing about ObamaCare ObamaCare is a piece of crap legislation. But the thing about ObamaCare is that ObamaCare was purportedly about trying to help people in the individual market if you had your health insurance program through your employer ObamaCare, theoretically, do not touch it. Now, that's not true ObamaCare. Did regulate the insurance companies and make it nearly impossible for you to get the same level of care at the same cost as you did before raised healthcare costs across the board. But it was specifically driven by the needs in the individual market people who had lost their jobs and had a health problem. And now couldn't get health insurance. But it was not directed at destroying the entire system. Kamala Harris, Bernie Sanders. These are folks who wanted to destroy the entire system from the very center of the system. They want your plan to be gone. They want your doctor to be gone is an amazing statement by Kamala Harris to just come out and say that Parker said the quiet power outlet. Everybody knows that that is where. Where this is going, but everybody is pretending that that is not where this is going right now right here is what Kamala Harris actually said she said she felt very strongly about Medicare for all. And then when she was pressed by Jake tapper, if that means eliminating private insurance, she said, yes, she said, yes, she said the idea is everyone gets access to medical care. Okay. And then she said, let's just get rid of it, should there's no let's just be done with it. Well, I'm glad that she can summarily dismiss twenty five percents of the American economy right off the top. And by the way, the part of the economy that also happens to generate all of the medical innovation that also happens to generate all of the all of the profit incentive for doctors to go into the industry in the first place. Democrats are incredibly extreme on this stuff. All Trump should do for the next two years of Kamala Harris is indeed the democratic nominee is played the clip of her over and over and over again saying she's going to take away your healthcare program. She's going to take away your health insurance. The let's see how the elderly feel about that. Let's see how you feel about that. When she says, she's taking away health insurance for you. Your child so that you can work with the government bureaucrat? I also love the suggestion by Kamla Harris there that these Aleutian to all of your paperwork ills is the federal government since when has that ever been true has been any area of American life in which your life has been made simpler by the federal government like less paperwork. I highly doubt it, but that wasn't her only extreme statements of the night. She was also asked about guns, and she said that we should basically ban all semiautomatic weapons in the United States air is no reason in a civil society that we have a salt weapons around communities that can kill babies and police officer. There is no reason why we cannot have reasonable gun safety laws in this country. And guess what? Guys. Here's the reality of it. Also, we're not waiting for a good idea. We have the good ideas and assault weapons ban background checks. Okay. So you know, she she then went on. And she specifically said, you know, what we should do. We should force legislators we should force legislators to look at autopsy photos. Because the and this is the ugliest part of American politics right now, the idea that if you disagree with Kamala Harris about her gun proposals. It's because you just don't care about the children. If only you cared about the children, then you would agree with her that also automatic weapons in the United States when she says assault rifles shooting some automatic weapons that also melodramatic weapons in the United States ought to be banned or confiscated outright. You're talking about hundreds of millions of weapons in the United States. And she suggests that if I oppose her stupid policy the Mets because I don't care about that kids here. She is doing this routine. Twenty six and seven year old babies were massacred. In connecticut. They failed to act. Here's what I think. I think that somebody should have required. And this is going to sound very harsh. I think somebody should have required. All those members of congress to go in a room in a locked room. No press. No. And nobody else and look at the autopsy photographs as those babies. And then you vote your conscience. Okay. So we're going to force them to look at the pictures. Kamala Harris wants them to look at in order to get them to change their mind. Okay, fine. If she wants that to be the case, then how about this. How about every democrat in the United States, Congress has to look at a picture of an aborted baby at twenty two weeks, and then they can vote their conscience on free choice, then they can vote their conscience on whether it's okay to slaughter babies in the womb? But people on the left would say, well, you know, that's an emotional appeal. It's not a logical appeal. Well, that's exactly what Kamala Harris is doing there. With regard to slaughter kids in classrooms. The suggestion that I'm supposed to give up my rifle because something bad happened to kids not perpetrated by me. And whom I by by somebody I would have attempted to stop. If I'd been there with my gun. We'll get to more of the extremism of Kamala Harris Harrison, just a second first, let's talk about life insurance. So I know it's uncomfortable to talk about the fact that we're all gonna plots at some point. But because we know that we also know that we life insurance is just part of being an adult. But, you know, sometimes it's complicated. He do it by word of mouth. You don't know. Exactly. How? Out. How to go about doing it? This is why you need policy genius policy genius has created website that makes it easy for you to compare quotes, get advice and get covered housing geniuses. Indeed, the easy way to get life, insurance and minutes. You can compare quotes from top insurance. And find the coverage you need at a price. You can afford from there. You just apply online the advisers policy genius handle all the red tape for you. They will even negotiate your rate with the insurance company. No extra fees, no commission sales agents, just helpful advice, and personalized service and policy genius. Doesn't just do life insurance. Whether you're shopping for disability insurance to protect your income or homeowners insurance or auto insurance, they can help you get covered fast. So no matter how much or how little you know, about life insurance. You can find the right policy in minutes at policy genius dot com. Again, that's policy genius dot com. Policy genius. Is the easy way to compare it and buy life insurance? Go check them out right now policy genius dot com. Go check them out. Okay. So. Pummel Harris making the case that we should ban all assault rifles of the country. So so far we have we're going to ban private health insurance. And we're going to ban all semiautomatic weapons in the United States. But that's not all from Kamla Harris. She also continues by saying that we should basically ban all pri- private vehicles in the United States. She said she backs the green new deal. This is this is the new fresh thing. Among Democrats is the green new deal knows. You'll recall the green new deal is this purported piece of legislation that would radically shift the nature of the American economy. The is that within a decade we'd be completely carbon fuel free. We would no longer be using guests. We would no longer be using coal would be carbon neutral, and the idea here is that we require a vast shifting of how the American economy works the cost on this green new deal, by the way, would be eighteen trillion dollars eighteen trillion dollars over the over the course of the next decade or so sorry. I'm underestimating green new deal. According to PJ media analysis would cost forty nine trillion. Dollars in the first ten years. Right. That's an amazing amazing statement. But it doesn't matter the entire left has decided to resonate around all of this the Greenwood you'll would include a federal jobs program. It would include getting rid basically of of all private cars. They here is Camila Harris. Supporting it, we've been hearing more about a green new deal to fight climate change you have yet to fully endorse or reject it will you fully endorse the green new deal tonight. I support a green new deal, and I will tell you why climate change is an existential threat to us, and we have got to deal with the reality of it all children need to be able to breathe clean air and drink clean water. We've got to have a commitment to a policy that will allow that to happen for ourselves and our children, and our grandchildren and right now, we don't that green new deal that she is endorsing right there. Requires cutting the United States military in half, ending eighty seven percents of US energy and banning cars is oh. That is that is the new program that she is supporting comma, Harris, very exciting stuff. If you think that this is mainstream thought, it is inside the Democratic Party. I mean, it's pretty astonishing it's pretty astonishing. So so far ban guns ban, private healthcare and ban cars. But, but at least sh but at least, you know, she's a moderate. That's that's the really important thing is at least we know that combo Harris is big moderate, according to members of the Democratic Party. Then finally Harris got to her prosecutorial record. So as you say she's pandering to the left, she's just as left as Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren, and she was asked specifically about her prosecutorial record. And this is where she's going to have a little bit of trouble with the radical left inside her own party. I compare my record to any prosecutor any elected prosecutor in this country in terms of the work that I have done to reform the criminal Justice system. I am daughter of parents who met when they were active in the civil rights movement. Nobody had to teach me about the disparities in the criminal Justice system. I was born knowing what they are. I made a conscious decision to become a prosecu-. Later because I understood if we're going to reform systems. Yes, there is going to be the power that we have on the outside. And also we need to have people on the inside where the decisions are being made. By the way, the question. She was asked was why she did not support a Bill requiring her office to investigate fatal shootings involving police officers. And her answer was I'm black. And that's why I became a prosecutor which is not a good answer is she's going to get flak from the left to end from the right on her prosecutorial record. The good news is that the flack from the left is only gonna last so long as the media focus on the question, which is to say not long at all instead going to focus on the radical leftist policies. She takes on for example, border security so shoes ass last night about her position on a border wall. And she said something so radical that most Democrats I would think disagree with it. Which is that she will not be in favor of a border wall under any circumstances. Even if it means guaranteeing the legal status of so-called rivers are already in the United States. Let me be very clear, I'm not gonna vote for a while under any circumstances, and I do support border security, and if we. To talk about that. Let's do that. And let's talk about what really accomplishes border security, which is let's upgrade the technology. Let's look at the fact that the folks who are working on border security on the ground. No that they need upgraded infrastructure around things like drones, and they need cameras. So yes, I'm all for increased border security where we need it. I am not for a wall. Okay. So she's still Kim's. Explain what kind of border security. She will something. I'd drones cameras. But that really doesn't solve any of the question in saying that you would leave the dreamers hanging specifically to avoid Trump's program is pretty amazing stuff. There's an article in the New York Times today that does point out a serious flaw for combo Harrison, I pointed out her prosecutorial record here. A couple of times it is too right wing for the left and too left wing for the right? Well, the New York Times has an article today talking about how that could really impact Kamla Harris's race with regard to black voters. So the title of the pieces can combo a Harris repeat Obama success with black voters. It's complicated. They say interviews with more than thirty black voters and political leaders in early primary. States like, South Carolina and her home state, California show that miss Harris faces challenges she'll have to persuade black activists skeptical of record as a prosecutor overcome sexism in a bias on the part of some voters that a female candidate cannot be President Trump and worked to gain broader support from black men who generally expressed more wariness about miss Harrison interviews than black women should also needs to win over left-leaning young black voters, some of whom are ultimately disenchanted by Mr. Obama's presidency, and may value political ideology more than racial solidarity. So she does have some problems in this race. The good news is she may be able to pander her way out of it. So the way she's going to pander her way out of it is by invoking stupidities like man's planning. She's going to explain that everyone who opposes her is just a sexist. So she was asked about man's planning last night in a typical left-wing question. Here is the charisma-free Kumble Harris giving what occurred in two thousand sixteen and the current political climate that a male nominee will have a better chance this time around then a female nominee, would you please respond to this? So. This man has a response ready. The next time a man tries to man splaine. Why would make better nominee? People who vote the people who live in this country are smarter than that. They're gonna make decisions based on who they believe is the best leader they're going to make decisions based on who they believe is speaking truth who is doing it in a way that gives people dignity doing it in a way that elevates public discourse. As opposed to bringing us to the lowest common denominator and base instincts. That's how the voters are going to vote and that is going to be the basis upon who will win. You know, the question is really hard hitting when the candidate stands up and applauds the question, I I love guys who ask women about man's planning that guy that's a real man's, man. Right there that guy who has about man's leading solid solid stuff. So that that's really exciting. Kamala. Harris was also asked about how she would stay on message debating, President Trump once again, her answer was less than inspiring. Well, I I it's very important that anyone who who presents themselves as leader and wants to be a leader, we'll speak likely leader. And that means speaking with integrity can me and speaking truth. It means. And speaking in a way that expresses and an indicates some level of interest and concern in people other than oneself. Okay. Honestly, I think that if she ends up being the kids that if the Democrats I think Trump has predetermined to beating her Oxford. Why in just a second like really the more? I see her the more comfortable, I am with President Trump running against her. I'll explain in just one second first. Let's talk about frame bridge. They make it super easy and affordable to frame your favorite things from art prints and posters to the photo sitting on your phone. So you got a bunch of photos on your phone on your computer? You're not sure what to do with them. You don't want to schlep on over to local frame store, which is super expensive. And they make you pay a fortune for custom friends instead, you should be looking at frame bridge with Valentine's Day approaching you can create a unique and thoughtful gift that will last for years to come. So here's how it works. You just go to frame bridge dot com, and you upload your photo, or they'll send you packaging to safely mail in your fiscal pieces. Preview item on minded any frame style. Choose your favorite or get free recommendations from their design team the experts had frame bridge, then custom framing item. Mm and deliver your Finnish piece directly to your door. Ready to hang is done of the hundreds you'd pay in framing store their prices start at just thirty nine bucks. All shipping is free. Plus, my listeners get fifteen percents off their first order at frame bridge dot com when they use promo code Shapiro. So my wife, and I took our two kids for vacation why? And we did a photo shoot the photos were beautiful, but we were looking for frames frame. The ridge is the place that we went go. Check them out right now at frame, bridge dot com and use promo code Shapiro. Save an additional fifteen percents off your first order again frame, bridge dot com. Promo code Shapiro frame bridge dot com, promo code Shapiro to get fifteen percents off your order. It's a great way to make sure that you're preserving your memories. Okay. So I'm looking at this tape of Kamala Harris last night on CNN. And here's what I'm seeing. I'm seeing a person who is radically pandering to the far left and seeing somebody who's struggling with her own record as a prosecutor. And I'm seeing somebody who is giving platitudinous answers to obvious questions. She's not really exciting is the thing in Barack Obama could do this because he was the first Barack Obama. But you can't be the first Barack Obama. If you're the. Second Barack Obama. You just happened to be female. There's nothing particularly exciting about combo Harrison the media trying to manufacturer excitement for her is pretty it's pretty stunning. Honestly because she is not an exciting candidate. When you watch her. If you're on the left, you watch her and you go. Wow. She is just she blows me away. Or does she feel a lot more like sort of a typical politician than something brand new and exciting. There's no sizzle there. You're Donald Trump. If you've got a stage with Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, it looks a lot more like the stage of Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton that it looks like Donald Trump versus Barack Obama, for example. She's just not nearly as talented a politician as Barack Obama was. I mean, if you people are I mean, that's that's that's not a rip on her. That's just a reality. Barack Obama was a very talented politician. She happens not to be she rented a very safe state in California. She was given her. She was given her first lift in politics by a man, a married, man. She was dating she's had a pretty easy ride to the position that she now occupies. There's nothing about her. That makes people stand up. And cheer really they're told they should share by the media. They're told that they should share because we need a black female president as opposed to just to blackmail president. We need to black female president. But if you're a progressive are you more excited by her or more excited by the full on Marxism of Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, if you are if you're a millennial are you really excited by comma Harris, does she strike you as somebody who who is going to make you get out there and pound on doors? I don't think so. And I think that she's also going to get Republicans out there to vote on mass. We'd she is she's saying openly that she is going to destroy the entire private healthcare system in the United States known. Elizabeth Warren says it I guess that left these get excited. But when Kamala Harris says, it it just feels like she's a government bureaucrat who spent her entire life being a government bureaucrat, and doesn't know what she's talking about. So I don't know I've got more questions about Kamala Harris candidacy today than I had yesterday. And I'm shifting on this based on new evidence suggesting that she's the front runner, and I think that with all the media attention. She will. Leap to the front of the pack for a time. But I'm not sure that lasts these. I don't think that she is particularly exciting. Maybe I've got this totally wrong. I just don't get that feeling from her. Now the way that you know, the Democrats are a little bit panicked is by the reaction to Howard Schultz. So Howard Schultz is the former Starbucks CEO. But he is now talking about running for president of the United States. He's talking about running basically as a middle of the road, democrat and Democrats are panicked about this. It'd be freaking out. So last night he was doing a book, and it was a town hall, then and some guy got up and started yelling at Howard Schultz about not running for president. Please don't run for president. You're gonna keep Trump in the Oval Office. I am seriously considering running for president as a centrist independent, and I wanted to clarify the word, independent, which view. Merely as a designation on the ballot. And what? Billionaire. Okay. So I I love that people are really upset about this. It's not just that random guy in the audience. I mean, frankly, I don't understand what Cory Booker is doing out there in the audience shouting at him in don't help elect Trump, but Democrats are so threatened by the possibility of a centrist democrat running that they're getting up and shouting at Howard Schultz. Now the way to stop people from voting for Howard Schultz. If you're a democrat is to nominate somebody who isn't bad bleep crazy is to nominate somebody who isn't pledging to destroy one quarter of the American economy till may how you nominate somebody who doesn't pledge for move guns from the hands of a hundred million people. Are you start with that if you nominated somebody who wasn't quite as nutty than maybe you wouldn't have to worry about Howard Schultz? But the fact is that Democrats in the base want their cake, and they want to eat it too. They wanna be able to nominate somebody radical without alienating everybody in the middle. This is why Michelle Goldberg over at the New York Times. Did he sheer panic today? The Schober legitimately the stabile over at the New York Times a stable of just awful columnists. It really is amazing. But Michelle Goldberg has a piece today called Howard Schultz. Please don't run for president a bid by an extra. Starbucks would be reckless idiocy. Why would it be any more than Elizabeth Warren running for president well because Howard Schulz's moderate? So here's what Michelle Goldberg says, unlike Donald Trump, the former Starbucks chief executive Howard Schultz is generally successful businessman who built a company that's become part of the daily lives of people across America for this. Those of us who are horrified by Trump's relentless scripting should be grateful. It gives us something concrete to boycott should Schulz decide to launch a narcissistic spoiler campaign for president. So she's happy that he is associated with Starbucks because then they can boycott Starbucks worth noting. Michelle Goldberg is so dumb that. She doesn't even recognize that he's the former Starbucks CEO. He's no longer associated with Starbucks. So she's going to boycott a company, he's no longer involved in brilliant. But here's what Michelle Goldberg writes. I mean, do they even have editors over at the New York Times anymore? She says he could end up helping get Donald Trump reelected Schultz appears to. Share the conviction endemic among American elites that the country hungers for a candidate who is socially liberal, but fiscally conservative after all if you're rich. You probably a lot of people like this. I'm socially liberal, fiscally conservative centrist who would love to vote for rational democrat and get Trump out of the White House chief executive of the major Bank who wanted to remain. Anonymous recently told politico women getting Michael Bloomberg's poor odds of the democratic primary, but this frustrated executives politics aren't widely shared by people who haven't been to Davos it. A two thousand seventeen study the political scientists Lee Druckman plotted the 2016 electric along two axes one dealing with social issues that identity the other with economics and trade only three point eight percent of voters fell into the socially liberal, economically, conservative, quadrant. So then here's the question. What is Michelle Goldberg? So scared of why she's so scared like what what what what you worried about if nobody in the Democratic Party is gonna vote for this guy. Then what is she worried about it? She worried about what's her face Marianne Williamson who announced she's going to run for president. Is she worried out Marianne Williamson with why isn't there a column, you're? New York Times about the cookie yoga instructors who who are gonna vote for Marion Williams. The answer is nobody knows who she is. And she's not gonna win any votes. So if there's no constituency for Howard Schultz, Why's Michelle Goldberg all upset about his possible candidacy. So here's what she says. She says Bloomberg's research underscores the folly of Schultz's trial balloon on Monday. Bloomberg was contemplating at twenty twenty round is a democrat put out a statement that teams aimed at Scholtz though. It didn't mention him by name in twenty twenty great likelihood is that independent would just split. The anti Trump vote and end up reelecting the president RoH Bloomberg. That's a risk refused to run in two thousand sixteen and we can't afford to run it now by flirted with such a risk Schultz demonstrating a level of medal maniacal recklessness. That is it self disqualifying. So the fact that Scholtz thinks maybe I should run to raise because there's a bunch of people who don't like either party that's meglomaniac now. So there's no so you can't have it both ways either. No one's gonna vote for him. So why are you worried or everyone's gonna vote for him? So maybe he should run. But the show Goldberg and many in the Democratic Party won it both ways, they know they're too radical for the American people, and it freaks them out that somebody might be running a third party candidacy that could damage a beloved candidate like Elizabeth Warren or combo, Harris or Bernie Sanders. Okay. And just a second. I want to get to more of Howard show. Tsa's program. Why Democrats should feel threatened by it first? Let's talk about the coffee. You had this morning now was that good? My guess mediocre. You want better coffee morning coffee is an American institution. Which is why would it comes to starting my day? I reach for the most American coffee on the market black rifle coffee. Black rifle coffee is a portion of their sales to vets and first responder causes. Black rifle coffee is roasted order guarantee, you fresh delicious coffee with every single order black rifle coffee club makes things easy. You just pick your blend in the amount. You want black rifle ships your coffee direct to your door every month? Hassle-free wake up with America's coffee black rifle coffee. Visit black rifle coffee dot com slash bed. Rec- fifteen percents off your order that is black rifle coffee dot com slash Ben. For fifteen percents off again, black rifle coffee dot com slash men. Go check them out right now. I know the folks who run these are not the folks who are going to be ensuring that their their coffee shops turned into bathroom, stop serandon. These are folks who actually just want to make good coffee and bring it to your door. And then give some money to vets. And I. Onder causes. Great folks over there. Black rifle coffee dot com slash bent, and get the roast to order coffee club to make sure that everything is arriving at your door and regular basis. Black rifle coffee dot com slash man. Okay. I want to get to more of Heller Schultz and democratic radicalism injustice. Second. I you're going to have to go. Subscribe over daily wire dot com. Nine ninety nine a month. Get to a subscription to daily wire when you do that rest of this show live receive Clave show library of this show, live most importantly, an extra two hours of yours truly each and every day we hear that. I'm sick. You know, why because I'm slaving away for you people. Go check it out right now ninety nine a month. Get your subscription can ask questions in the middle of the show. We do that. Sometimes it's a lot of fun. And the only way you can have that show undermanned is by going to daily wear dot com for ninety nine dollars a year. You can get all of those glories, plus the very greatest in beverage vessels, leftist tears, hot or cold, tumbler feast, your eyes upon it, and despair that you have it not go check out the leftist tears, hot or cold tumbler right now and spent nine bucks year, get all of the great services. We've talked about also subscribe at YouTube. I tunes. Get our Sunday specials. You get our daily wire backstage is all sorts of great stuff happening over a daily wire dot com. We are the largest fastest growing conservative podcast and radio show in the nation. So Democrats are in a full-scale state of panic over Howard Schultz at he's actually building out a team. He has now hired eight Bill Burton as a communications advisor as the former CEO starbuck. Starbucks CEO mos- running for president in twenty twenty. He's adding people on both the right and the left to to his campaign Burton is looking to bring on other public relations representatives in order to promote Schultz's story of being raised in Brooklyn New York to becoming a prominent executive in the business industry. The addition of Burton could potentially boost Schultz's elite PR team which already includes Steve Schmidt who used to be a vice chairman at edited and managed John McCain's presidential campaigns. This could be a true, quote, unquote, centrist campaign now what's fascinating is that the left feels that they have not adequately served their base. You're not seeing a lot of people who are who are Trump fans or deeply worried about Howard Schulz's campaign about Schultz playing spoiler. Why? Well, because conservatives are pretty conservative and Bloomberg Schultz is not conservative enough for them. But folks on the left feel that they have sort of had to put one leg on each. They've got one. Leg on the were moderate stilt. And they've got one leg on the radical stilt and the radical stilt is moving away from the other still very quickly. And that means they're going to lose their balance opening away for a third party candidates wig. Maybe fifteen twenty percents of the vote. So Trump could then win forty-three forty four percents of the vote Howard Schultz picks up fifteen percent of the vote. And the democrat loses the race. That is what they're worried about right now, and they should worry about that. Again. The solution would be not to be radical crazy people, but they can't do that. Because it's out there radical crazy people's they're not going to do that. So Howard Schultz. If you look at what he's been saying a lot of it is true. And a lot of it. I think appeals to people in the center. So for example, he was specifically asked about democratic healthcare plans. Now, you already saw earlier in the program Senator combo Harris talking about how she wants to do away with all private health insurance in the United States of America. It insane position. It insane position that will end with massive numbers of doctors going into concierge cash for payment, though, with hospitals, going bankrupt that will end with people getting poorer care and rash. Care. Here's Howard Schultz talking about how these healthcare plans. They're just not realistic. Every American deserves the right to have access to quality healthcare. But what the Democrats are proposing is something that is as false as the wall, and that is free healthcare for all in which the country cannot afford. Okay. And that of course is exactly true the country cannot afford a quote unquote, free healthcare for all there's no system on planet earth that makes that makes health care affordable. Universal quality. There's no way to do it. And when I say, affordable, universal equality. I mean that if you want the best in choice, you're going to have to have a free market system. Now, the best system that is available. If you're going to look just at the efficacy of a healthcare system is probably Switzerland system. There you have what is essentially a massive individual mandate where you are forced to pay for health insurance yourself from your own pocket to a certain percentage of your income. And then the government may supplement the rest if you can't actually afford health. Insurance, but it's still largely private we'd meeting their private healthcare services in Switzerland in France. Most of the hospitals are still private most of the care is still private. It's just there's heavy government subsidization of private care when Kamla Harris talks about a full takeover of the government industry. She's talking about something that looks more like the UK or Canada, and that is a radical shift from what we have in the United States, by the way, the French healthcare system, which looks a lot more like the United States healthcare system, actually that looks like Canada or the UK even the French healthcare system right now is experiencing massive shortages of doctors in the very near future. Because it turns out that when government pays reimbursement. Rates. Those reimbursement. Rates are not high enough to keep doctors in the industry. In other words, when it comes to healthcare policy, if you actually want the best what you need is a free market. If you want universality, you need some sort of safety net in the United States, we have Medicaid we have Medicare. These are safety. Nets that exist on the government to level. I would prefer that most of the social safety net be devolved to the local level in the communities be responsible for picking. The slack for people who are members of those communities as opposed to these massive federal programs, but nobody in the United States is really very much in favor of the abolition of everyone's health insurance programs when Schulz says we can't afford this. When showed says, it's going to bankrupt the country. He's exactly right about that. He's exactly right. The fact is again, the United States is health problems in the health problems in the United States don't match up to Norway like the people in the United States are not the same as the people in Norway. You can't compare the two in terms of health problems in terms of diversity in terms of age in terms of income. It's just not comparable. But I love that Democrats have as one-size-fits-all solution that most Americans don't like Schultz is more moderate on this. And it's a reason why Democrats feel threatened by him. And then there's Howard show on the debt. So here's Scholtz talking about a problem that no one wants to talk about the fact that we have twenty one trillion dollars in debt in the United States me right now, I think the greatest threat domestically to the country is this twenty one trillion dollar debt hanging over the cloud of America and future. Generations. And the fact that interest rates are going up. We're going to be paying close to over four hundred billion dollars in interest expense, which I think is the the number one and number two issue in terms of federal expense to the country. The only way we're going to get out of that. As we've got to grow the economy in my view, four percent or greater and then we have to go after entitlements. Okay. All of that is one hundred percent true. And what he's saying? There is more conservative than what Donald Trump has had on the issue. Trump himself said he didn't wanna touch title minutes you need to touch title minutes. Yeah. Honestly, if Howard Schultz runs as an independent on this on this platform. It's doubtful. Water Republicans are gonna break with Trump just because Trump is is such a polarizing figure you the love Marie hate him at this point. But are there middle of the road Democrats who will break for Howard children? I think there are. And I think that's why these people are scared to death of him. I think they are scared to death. The Michael Bloomberg or Howard Schultz runs and that Howard Schultz wins. Fifteen twenty percent of the vote. They are scared to death. They don't have anyone electrifying who is currently running. They need somebody who's gonna win fifty percent of the vote and the possibility of a serious. Third party candidacy doing damage is very real Americans. Don't like either party right now. Look at the polls when Howard Schultz blast both parties. He is not wrong. Here's Schultz blasting both parties the other day both parties are consistently not doing what's necessary on behalf of the American people and aren't engaged every single day in revenge politics. Well, we are sitting today with approximately twenty one and a half trillion dollars of debt, which is a reckless example, not only have Republicans, but Democrats as well as a reckless failure of their constitutional responsibility. Okay. All of this is true. And again, you know, I I if I'm a democrat. I'm scared of Howard Schultz, which is why they're screaming at him right now. Now, meanwhile, does that mean that they're going to change their policies? Of course, not it means they're going to keep doubling down on radicalism. And then hope that Howard Schultz withdraws out of the goodness of his heart. And at the American people reject him simply because they hate Trump so much so Djamil bully another leftist on the New York Times. Aditorial board which is just what they need. They need another member of the leftist Cowdrey over the New York Times, very important. They must never hire an actual concert. They're still by the way, not a single person of whom I'm aware who who's on the editorial board or who who writes columns for the Washington Post for the New York Times for time magazine for any of these places who plans on voting for Trump and twenty one thousand not one which is amazing because half the country's gonna vote for Trump. But boy was recently hired over at the New York Times. And he has an article today about how Okaz yo Cortez Warren in Sanders are the future of the United States and how they represents the history of the United States. Now, they may in fact, the future of the United States if the future of the United States is suicide, but the case that America's history is deeply intertwined with radical redistributionism is simply nonsense. Nonetheless, Democrats are going to continue to make this case they feel like Trump's unpopularity is a window for them to push hard left as they wanna push. So here's Jim Bowie. He says it all but still potent critique has reemerged in American politics. Six one that holds concentrated wealth, and perhaps American capitalism itself as integral to the democratic society. We wanted to build the basic idea holds that holds capitalism as at best and uneasy partner with our democratic values at worst it arose completely undermining the social and material basis of Republicans citizenship as envisioned by the American revolutionaries since the start of the new year this thinking has become especially prominent, and then he quotes Alexandra causing Cortez and Elizabeth Warren. This is idiocy. Of course, the idea that capitalism is inimical to American democratic values. It's just not true now aristocratic concentration of wealth is inimical to American values. If you read Alexis de Tocqueville, free, Thomas, Jefferson, if reading the founding fathers, one of the things that they were hoping to escape in Europe was this idea of an aristocratic wealth system in which the centralized government passed on favors to a select few that they were seeking to avoid, but a free market system where people can freely alienate, their labor, and trade goods and services for other goods and services. That was something all the founders were in favor of now. The United States was also uniquely blessed to Tocqueville talks about this. The United States was uniquely blessed with an extraordinary level of middle-class development, specifically because we lived on a relatively uncultivated continent with lots of free land for everybody. So it wasn't that hard to go out there stake your claim it and suddenly you're a middle class farmer. But the idea that the solution was for government to forcibly redistribute wealth. That was something that the founders never contemplated and set up a government to prevent yet. Your Mel buoy makes the case that America has always been in favour of such redistributionism, shall we say the evidence is rather scanty of this. So here is his his gestion. He says some of these he says most Americans tend not to think of these gala -tarian even anti-capitalist sentiments as part of the nation's intellectual heritage. But Warren Okaz your Cortez and similarly situated politicians like Bernie Sanders are drawing on influential currents in American political history. First of all, I should note that here he is ripping off Joseph. Ellis's new book about the founding fathers, which has some serious problems have recommended on the show, but it's got some serious selective. Reading problems here's dramatically again. He says some of those stretch back to the founding era despite his own status as a wealthy slave holder. Thomas Jefferson, was wary of extreme disparities of wealth and thought it was incompatible with Republican political ideals commenting on the consequences of this enormous inequality producing so much misery to the bulk of mankind in Europe. He described his position in a famous letter to James Madison in seventeen eighty five whenever there isn't any country uncultivated lands and unemployed poor. It is clear that the laws of property have been so far extended as who violate natural, right? The earth is given as a common stop for man to labor and live on if for the encouragement of industry, we allow it to be appropriated we must take care of that. Other employment must be furnished to those excluded from the appropriation. Okay. What he's specifically talking about. There is the idea that rich people aren't gonna have control of all the land and poor people won't be able to work on the land. Well, that's written into American law. There's something called the adverse possession in American law in which if. I buy a huge tract of land. And then I'll do anything with it for twenty years, and you without my knowledge, go and, cultivate, a piece of that land and turn it into your family farm. You actually now have possession of it under American law. Well, he's certainly not talking about the forcible extraction of wealth from people. The key part of that phrase when Jefferson is writing is whenever there isn't any country uncultivated lands and unemployed poor it will wear the uncultivated lands. And then I love this. He just fast forward to Eugene Debs dose stop in the middle. So Djamil buoy goes from Thomas Jefferson, who's a radical a radical decentralized power guy? He didn't want power centralized in a government at all Jefferson was closer to ARCO capitalism that he was to a centralized government Marxism. I I love this Jamila. Boy skips from him from from misrepresentation of Jefferson forward to Eugene Debs it actual socialist in the early twentieth century. And then suggests that socialism is written into the American compact. You may miss them folks like in between and around and like in the constitution and the federalist papers, and like all of American history, you may have missed there. But I guess if you quote Eugene Debs who is legitimately assoc list than I suppose that we're on solid ground. Now Djamil boy concludes by the end of the twentieth. Century's the insights of the new deal period had been smothered by corporate power and its political allies with predictable consequences, we live with a narrow politics or democratic deliberation. Rarely touches the fundamental questions of power and ownership. Let's weird. 'cause it seems to me that every five seconds. We are discussing how much wealth to expropriate from people who have already paid their taxes. He says Americans across the political spectrum gear up to try to tonight. President Trump a second term in office. All of this may seem divisive a distraction from the emergency at hand. Just the opposite is true. Trump's presidency is a symptom of profound credit weakness. Should he lose in twenty twenty that will be the beginning of recovery will still need to rethink and rebuild our democracy? And that has to include a repeal. Managing of the economy on which it rests. Okay. So the Democrats made mistake here they are misinterpreting dislike for President Trump who is introduced a relatively likable fellow. They are now misinterpreting lack of support for President Trump with support a full-scale Eugene v Deb socialism, and then they wonder why maybe Howard Schultz is dangerous to their program. And all they have to do is not be crazy. And they can't even do that. It's just amazing. Okay. Time for some things. I like, and then some things that I hate so things that I like today, America's an amazing place. So there was a an air force veteran with no family and he passed away. And there was a story about this that that folks that he had nobody. Nobody's Trump at his funeral folks. Like, Jake tapper some other folks in the media, they made the case that folks should show up to this guy's funeral again. Air force veteran had no family and thousands of people showed up to the funeral of a person. They did not know that's an amazing thing. Here's a picture if you can't see it of a line of cars. It's like field of dreams a line of cars stretching off into the horizon. For people showing up to pay homage to air force veteran with no family who's buried after fears that no one would actually attend his funeral. It's an amazing amazing thing is amazing country. Really is is so many good people in this country. And the fact that some people in politics wanna polarize us from one another so we can attack each other's wealth or attack each other by density group. It's really it's really gross. This is what America is all about people showing up to the funeral of a person who didn't do, you know, the highest form of charity. It says it Jewish thought is going to somebody's funeral because its charity that can never be reciprocated. Obviously, the fact that Americans still understand that they owed something veterans who with whom they are not related is just it's an amazing thing. Okay. Other things that I like today. So it's amazing. How members of the LGBT community are considered a one giant one giant kind of intellectual block that obviously is not true. And simply is not true. If you're a lesbian or gay person. There's no reason that you should buy into the propaganda. This just that men can become women and women. Become men, and yet if you are a lesbian or gay person who believes in biological sex. You will be ostracised just the same way any conservative would be. So for example, there was a there was a an event at Heritage Foundation and caravans feminist lawyer and spokeswoman for women's Liberation Front. Spoke against the so-called equality act, denouncing the transgender and gender identity movement is anti woman and anti lesbian in particular. Which makes perfect sense. I mean, if you are lesbian, presumably, you prefer members of your same sex will in order for that's make any sense sex has to be a non changeable category. Otherwise, a man could be a woman. We have seen weird situations like this on my. My sister used to teach at a college. And she told me that there was a situation in which a man who identified as queer right meeting that he was not straight and a woman quite dented as transgender and queer ended up marrying each other. So it was just a man and a woman marrying each other. But they had weird labels that they had attached to those elves, but it's just normal marriage. But apparently if you are in the lesbian gay community. You must be forced to abide by dictates that actually make your own view of sexual orientation. Insects realm relatively obsolete. Here are some members of panel at Heritage Foundation talking about this. The commission as the only lesson. So neighbors dating biological vacs. A month long. I was guilty of violence my mind using mail row. Now's to talk about it convicted male Ramos who I intend to five as transgender and prefers female from knows. It doesn't matter that you sexually result in two men and women's prison under being transferred there on his gender identity. Oh, no is far Gordon over me. She call this team than it is for him to rape. They hey that shouli back who is the lesbian talking about this. It is pretty amazing. It is pretty busy. But that is the world in which we live and it's pretty ugly world. Okay. Time for some things that I hate. So now appears that there is no plan in Afghanistan. President Trump is about to sign a new peace deal apparently with the Taliban in Afghanistan now. There was a case to be made that originally when we invaded Afghanistan. The entire goal was just to destroy the Taliban, and then prop somebody else up and leave. We tried that. And apparently that has failed at talked to many people who have served in the military in Afghanistan people who have been in positions of power in Afghanistan. And what they say is that unless you are willing to cross the border and do the heavy lifting of going after terrorists in Pakistan, unless you're willing to take off the Pakistani government, the Taliban was always going to end up retaking Afghanistan. Now the question is whether the United States is going to withdraw from Afghanistan and turn the country back over to the Taliban just as in Syria. There seems to be a real desire for America to withdraw. The fact is that if America does withdraw talent will take over again, it will wanna get once again become to save harbor for terrorists will north for ten years. And then there will be a terrorist attack entire reason we went into half ghanistan again was because of nine eleven this was the good war supposedly according to. Obama even that good war is now being undermined by the idea that the United States has to pull out as fast as possible damn the future consequences. Well, according to the New York Times, a hasty American withdrawal would erode the authority and legitimacy of the Afghan government raising the risk that the Taliban can recapture control of the country short of that could contain Afghanistan's protracted, bloody civil war. Here's the thing that American foreign policy. There are not always great answers. Sometimes the best answer is just a muddle through. And it seems like most presidents kind of get this President Trump gets this sort of Barack Obama Barack Obama wanted to pull out of Afghanistan to he didn't. Because once you get in that chair and information comes across your desk. You know have to make difficult decisions. It's easy to campaign on the ice. Elation is that is popular among Americans is much harder to govern from that popular popularized elation ISM when he wants to keep America safe all of which suggest the American people should get real about their own foreign policy. If you want to be safe that means that we are going to have to be in places that are uncomfortable. If whoever you are willing to take. The sacrifice of Americans at home being in more danger. Then you can be a little bit more isolationist than than you might otherwise necessarily. But let's be straight about the choices that are being made. Let's not fifth and say, we can everything fully 'isolation as foreign policy and a less dangerous world. It doesn't work that way already. Well, we'll be back here a little bit later with two more hours. If my cold can bear it. We'll see you there later or we'll see you here tomorrow. I'm Ben Shapiro. This is the Ben Shapiro show. The Ben Shapiro show is produced by sending Villarreal executive producer, Jeremy boring, senior producer Jonathan. Hey. Our supervising producer Mathis Glover, and our technical producer is Austin Stevens. Edited by Adam sigh of its audio is mixed by micro Meena Herron makeup is by just over production. Assistant Nik Sheehan. The Ben Shapiro show is a daily wire production copyright, daily wire twenty thousand nine.

Kamala Harris Democrats United States President Trump president Bloomberg Schultz Elizabeth Warren Bernie Sanders Democratic Party New York Times Kamala Harris Harrison Howard Schultz California Medicare prosecutor America Ben Shapiro Barack Obama
A radical  or obvious?  plan to save American democracy

The Ezra Klein Show

1:13:39 hr | 8 months ago

A radical or obvious? plan to save American democracy

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One of the most common questions is for all that I talk about polarization and problems in American democracy isn't the problem simply that were two party system. Don't we just need more parties now under our current rules that's not gonNa work but you could imagine structures, which is how most other countries do work where you have proportional representation where you do permit wilty many parties to compete constructively. Then you have more polls in the debate represented potentially more space for bargaining. Be Bit skeptical. It's our core problem, but I also tend to favor proportional representation and the solutions it would make us a multi-party system but people are really respect. Do think it is our core problem in one of those people is lead Trautmann, who is a senior fellow and the public reform. program. At the new America Foundation. He is a political scientist, the Co host of great podcasts politics in question which a couple of political scientist come together and talk about politics and he's Also the author of a book came out right about the same time minded called breaking the two party doom loop the case for Multiparty. Democracy in America, and let's say I really recommend this book I on similar argument all the books from people come on the show but but this is a really good piece of work try to understand the way our parties involved and the ways in which different fundamental rules to partisans can create very different outcomes in the way a political system functions. ANGLIA's probably more optimistic in how much would change and whether it could we could get to that change than I am if you went to multi-party but he is certainly convinced me over time that this is something people should support should try to figure out ways to do, and at least you'd think hard about as a contributor, current gridlock paralysis and unbelievably high stakes collisions as always email is show at box dot com here is Lee Druckman. Lee Germon bulk to the show. Hey, this is a real pleasure to be with US long longtime come and I've been excited for a bit. So I WANNA start in one of the theories that holds up the current system. What is median voter theorem and why is it wrong? It's a great place to start so that I thought hard about us. Yes well, start in the middle the median voter theorem is this idea that the parties should converge on the political center and that's because there are some median voter who is sort of you know unsure whether the votes democratic or the Republican. Party in the balance of power hangs with a median voter now you know we could spend a whole episode on. Why the median voter theory is wrong but I think the problem is one. It assumes that voters have unit dimensional preferences, which is just not the case it assumes that parties can just sort of converge on the center Willy Nilly because parties are these unilateral actors instead of the complicated coalition of groups and and officeholders and donors that they really are There's only one national election when there are four, hundred, thirty, five house elections, hundred Senate elections, as well as fifty state elections for president. And the median voter there is not the median. Voter across the country and you know it, it also assumes that voters can actually tell where the parties are and can sit somewhat independent of the parties in in fact, influenced by their partisan loyalties to think about what they actually want from the parties. So it makes all kinds of assumptions that are incredibly simplistic about how politics works and you know I think it led a lot of political analysts. And a lot of political scientists to think that it all works out 'cause you know parties converge on the center and know maybe that sort of explained the the way American politics worked in nineteen, fifty seven when the the theory initially came out and was popularized, but it doesn't really match. The facts hasn't matched the facts for a long time. It'll Sunday people but like this is a place to start and hell, it's my podcast. So so here we heart but there's a reason I want to stay in this for one second because I think this as an implicit. Structure to how about the system and how we don't understand why spellings really important. So I want to bring in one other claiming making the book and then one claim that I wanNA make here. So you also say that one of the assumptions of meeting voter theorem gone back to when downs proposed it is that voters are going to care about policy over partisanship, which I'd like to hear you think that isn't true and then second you just started this but if the median voter dominated American politics. Republicans would have one I guess one of the past seven Presidential Elections Democrats will control the Senate and we'd be in a very different political system with very different structures of political power. So medium border therapies also slightly off idea when the decisive Otr is depending on which institution you're looking at somewhere between let's call it one point five and in the Senate. Sixty seven points to the right of the actual median voter. Yeah. So those are both super important addendums and like I said, I'm sure your whole show on the median voter. So we are. Well maybe. Maybe. We are so to the question of do voters about policy or politics or partisanship mostly we've seen time and again that voters care much more about partisanship in they do about policy because voters change their policy preferences lot more readily in they changed their policy preferences. Now, there are some folks probably than they checked party preferences they change their party preferences. Yeah. They change their policy preferences far more than they changed their party preferences and you and I care about policy and a lot of folks who listen to this podcast care about policy. But I would admit that even even a lot of us have updated our policy positions fit with our partisanship over the years as for the the. Point about you know the median voter nationwide is probably left of center but because of the way that the Senate disproportionately benefits conservative rural states in their electoral college, overweight rural states, and also because of the way that that even in the house and even without Gerrymandering Democrats would over-concentrate their votes in a lopsided urban districts. The median district is slightly to the right of the median voter and medium state is even more to the right of the median voter. So even if we assume the median voter was corrected, you know there's a stylized version of it. That's like may be sort of reasonable to assume although I think it's still misses a lot but even so our political institutions. Are, not reflecting the median voter. This is GonNa be the setup for the rest of the conversation because as I understand what you're arguing the book. It is that a multi-party system. Will Maybe in one telling of it. Give the median or maybe the modal voter, an ability to choose a party that cluster what they actually want, and also give the party's more ability to bargain and compromise as they're going about their their business. But I think to get to that we've to get into what is what is the nature of America's system. And one of the claims you make in the book that I think is pretty important. Is it's easy for people to say, well, we've had a two party system or less the for the whole of the country, and it's always worked pretty well, and so what's the deal like how how can the two party system be the problem but you make the argument that in the period in which we think of American politics is working best by the the twentieth century. Politics era, we have to get a four party system. Tell me about that. Yeah. So it's true that we have had basically in name at least a two party system with Democrats and Republicans going back to eighteen sixty, which is longer than most democracies have have been around. But. Friar to the modern era those parties were were really these very loose confederations of state and local parties, and now persistent criticism of American parties was that they didn't really stand for anything because all they did as a as a National Party was together every four years argue over who should be their president and that created kind of loose jointed nature that I think worked reasonably well with our political institutions in order to legislate. But I, think it also came at a very high cost in preserved a of unfair. Racial hierarchies in the South and you know run the mid century parties basically were indistinguishable from each other at a national level but you had within those parties within the Republican Party. You had liberal Republicans who? Mostly came from New England and the West Coast in some cities and you had conservative Democrats who came largely from the South some you know some from the the planes in other rural parts of the country and what that meant is that on different issues different. Groups could come together to to work out agreements and because the Republican Party and Democratic, party were both these kind of broad overlapping. Coalitions that really you know again more of a four party system Didn't seem as high stakes who won the presidency we're GonNa get you know a similar similar set of policy outcomes regardless in the parties we're GONNA work together because there was considerable overlap in their priorities. Can I can I draw something very specific out in this moment because I think it's important for the moment were in. So. We're speaking about a lesson a week. My God politics moves quickly right now after the death of repair. GINSBURG. And one thing that has happened in the past couple Supreme Court vacancies is that it in particular Mitch McConnell has played them. As a kind of blood sport, which is relatively new to American politics. And I think one way of reading this is actually that it's a reasonable even rational response to the state Supreme Court nominations becoming so much higher nominees to be much more theologically unpredictable. Much etiological in general I mean, there's all these measures of like how often day. Strayed from their parties, etc. But the parties themselves, we're less ideological. It's part of why that was actually wanted to ask if you thought that's a reasonable read of what's happening right now, which is at in kind of twentieth century American politics when this tradition was around that, supreme, court nominees were considered non ideologically not literally always. But in in general if you're qualified and not completely extreme like Robert Bork, you could make a way through if that just reflected parties for themselves, not that ideological and hence nominated all kinds of people and just the stakes of each supreme court situation were lower and so they didn't need to be played so. Hard. For advantage. But now that it's like the parties nominate, they're most reliable ideological footsoldiers. Of course, it's become a super logical vote that the parties will do anything to win because the consequences are so profound well I think that's exactly right and few look back at the history of the court you know a lot of justices who turned out to be quite liberal were nominated by Republicans and part of that is also that judges didn't have this sort of conservative legal infrastructure or liberal legal infrastructure judges were just judges and there wasn't this whole sort of pipeline like the Federal Society, that made sure that if you're going to do. is to be a justice of the Supreme Court you better. You know make sure that your reliable conservative for your reliable liberal or else you're never GONNA get nominated. So it's you know it is exactly what you say that there was just not a clear democratic ideology. A mix of liberal and conservative. US was not a clear Republican ideology because it was a mix of liberal and conservative views and now aspiring justices didn't try to cast themselves in strong partisan molds because you know in fact, the was the opposite to get nominated that you wanted somebody who could be seen as a as a compromise nominee and who could get sixty votes in the Senate. That was before we got rid of the judicial Filibuster US we we're GONNA, come to Filibuster. So we have a we have a four-party system for much of the mid century period, but we've always had officially a two party system. So why does America have a two party system? What's the what what is rooted in our political structure that leads to that general brought come? Well we have first-past-the-post elections. That's the main reason. Now does that mean that means for for those those playing at home we have system we have an electoral system of single winner districts in which the person who gets the plurality of the vote wins, and that's a system that tends to discourage third and fourth parties because those parties are treated as spoiler. So on the they become the home of a fringe, it of fringe characters and everybody who has ambition channels it into the two major parties and on top of that, we have an electoral college to elect the president which also. Strengthens the force of those two parties is dominant and again makes third parties spoilers. So everything in our political institutions is set up to really punish third parties in channel all the political energy into one of the two parties and that was. Not. Something that is enshrined in the constitution nowhere in the constitution will you find that? That's the system America was designed to have. It was basically at the time was the only system of voting around it was a fourteen thirty British countryside invention which just kinda populated the the colonies in just sort of became how you do elections at that time it wouldn't be until mid nineteenth century that other systems voting would be. Developed and not until eighteen ninety-nine that any country would adopt a form of proportional representation. I WANNA drought that logic there. So in a first-past-the-post system, let's imagine a polity. Let's say as Mitt Romney said the other day we are center right. Nation. And so fifty five percent of the country would like some form of right wing governance. And so were first-past-the-post-system and you have a Democratic Party that gets forty five percent of the vote. You Have Air Publican party that gets forty five percent of the vote and Libertarian Party begets ten percent of the vote. So in a first-past-the-post system, you have a deadlock between the Democratic and Republican parties and I probably should have said the Democrats get forty six and the Republicans get forty four. So you have a majority of the country wants right wing governance, but they get a Democratic Party in power whereas if you have some form of proportional representation and you have the libertarians getting ten percent and the Republicans getting forty four, that's fifty four percent for those kinds of parties and they can form a coalition and the Democrats are the minority is at the the fundamental issue that the third parties become spoilers because The more substantial portion of the vote you get as a third party, the Morbus spoiler you become so that like entire space between zero and you are one of the two major parties is just US screwing over the party closer to you rather than the party further from you. Yeah. That that that that is a fair rendition of the reason that we don't really. Have third parties. So why we change if all these other countries you've chart in the book showing that actually America's one of the only countries with only two major political parties among advanced democracies. What why don't we change it? What's your explanation for why we've been more stuck here than some of our pure nations? Well, you know there was a moment in the early. Twentieth. Century. Win. There was a lot of experimentation and a lot of reform energy and there are a lot of a lot of ideas about what we should do in one of those ideas was to become more proportional democracy. In fact, a lot of cities became a proportional systems but the I for whatever reason, the reform energy of the progressive movement went into having. Primaries as a way to to kind of bust up what was seen as a corrupt two party system and not into proportional representation and I I don't know what the debates were at the time in detail. But that for whatever reason that became seen as the way to make America more democratic whereas other at the same time most of western Europe was deciding that. Proportional representation was the fairway to go. You say something in the book thousand embarrassed I didn't know which is that America's system of party primaries is reasonably unique in the world. Can you talk about that? How to how to other countries I mean they do have parties and somebody has to be picked in the party to run. So how does it work? They have parties and? The parties get together as organizations, private organizations, and decide who their candidates are. Now, this varies from country to country. There are a lot of systems that are party lists systems in which has voter you vote only for the political party and then you just. Based on how well your party does whoever is is on the list gets gets the seats up to how many there are even in countries that run individual candidates for for districts you know there's a there's a party Machinery Party organization, and in some cases you know you can buy your way in as a member. In other cases, it's just sort of a an organization that besides amongst itself and that's kind of the norm and that's how a every other democracy. Let's parties choose their candidates. So let me translate that into American political language. So in other countries, these corrupt party mechanisms or groups have like local political bosses. Candidates people devote on with no input from the electorate itself. Why would you possibly want that? Well, now you're speaking the language that progressive reformers were speaking in the early twentieth century when they did wi-with times even considered a progressive performer. Well, now, we now know we see why and I think what a voters get is they get more choices. So if two parties are corrupt, it's a lot easier to maintain that corruption. You know it's if if are five parties competing, there's going to be likely one or two parties that can fight back against corruption and offer a different set of platforms different set of policies that will be more popular with voters. So there's more competition that disciplines that corruption and I I think that's A. Fair bargain to have. I'll be honest at US trying to pull a slightly different answer out of his home in a I'm gonNA. Hit It more explicitly, which is at in America. We have a real negative view of political parties as institutions. The country was founded by men who thought political parties bad though they went on to form a couple of them, and so if you begin with the idea, these zero political parties and their threat to the country, and then you end up getting to. While I know that in people say like, yeah, it'd be better if we had more parties in general people don't seem to like political parties and they and the reason as I question is that the idea that you would leave the choosing of the candidates to a political party is framed as corrupt. Even though you know for instance, you wouldn't get Donald Trump under that scenario and I've always had it's very telling that even as the Democratic Party was watching the Republican Party get taken over. By demagogic outside our because the Republican Party had lost control zone primaries, they were nevertheless weakening the power super delegates had in the Democratic Party to keep somebody like, Donald, trump from ever winning power. So it's like you're watching this failure of party control over there and they're actually following that direction. Technically, I mean that had to do with them ex from the Bernie Sanders camping and other things there were specific to the to the Democrats, but will you see in both parties over time is? Whatever they might want to do there is a rhetorical illegitimacy to the idea. The Party should have much power in American politics, and that seems to be to make sensibly talking about parties in ways of reforming party system more difficult. Yeah. I think Americans are more ambivalent about parties than your your comments make them out to be You know. I. Think there's a challenge that both parties have which is that they are really broad big tent coalitions with a lot of different factions and the only way to keep those factions. All feeling like they have a stake in the party is to have a relatively open contest where the party leaders can say, well, look you know we had fair and open rules and You Know Joe Biden one. So it's it's legitimate, and that's a way of maintaining a really really broad tent and making it feel like people at least least had a fair chance in the process at at the same time I felt like there were a lot of democratic voters in the primary who said I don't know there's like five or six candidates would all be great? Who am I to to decide among them? You know like this is incredible pressure. You know I, wish somebody else would would make that decision and I think if there are fewer people competing in in each party, there are more parties and fewer people competing to be the standard bearer or candidate for each party. It would be easier for the voters of that party to feel like. Well, I'm a I'm a democratic socialist and there's a Democratic Socialist Party and I feel pretty good about the the candidates that we've chosen for Congress whereas when there's one Democratic Party you've gotta find a way to to make all the groups feel. Including this to a fundamental problem with American parties is that they're just really weak as institutions because they kinda half to be because the only way to maintain that big tent is to sort of say, well, everyone's welcome and then you know you can fight it out in that. Whoever wins that's to our party is and that's how trump won and that's how Sandra very well could have won. His L. we back after a short break. Do, you ever see some staggering numbers attached to super high performing IPO's and wonder how do I get in on that? 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We drive through a universal truth emerges that in every complicated set of politics. When we see each other and when we refused to give up on each other, we can build a better future subscribe to to see each other wherever you're listening to the show. So you make an argument in the book the core argument of the book is that the two party system feeds polarization feeds dysfunction. Why welp? What we have now, it is a true two-party system and I think that's important starting point understand why this sort of what are called the doom loop is happening. Now because we've lost the the overlap that we once had, and now we have to very distinct parties which are competing for this narrow majoritarian power and they stand for very different values for very different parts of the country and the way that they win elections is by holding their coalition Together by making the other party seem more extreme and by. By. Really demonizing the other party that creates higher stakes for the election it begins to justify more anti democratic behavior and which further raises the stakes, which further makes things seem more threatening and in this two party system both sides feel like if the other side managed to take total power like that would be it for their way of life or for for American democracy and. So the thing that we've gotta do is keep the other side out of power, which then fuels more polarization and hello twenty twenty. Sherpa. When you look at when you look around the world and this is one of the questions always have about this thesis and you look at other countries. Yes. America's in a particularly bad moment right now and Donald trump is a deep embarrassment. But there have been times when American the American political system is working reasonably well and other systems including many multiparty systems were collapsing into fascism into Nazism into all kinds of democratic backsliding into all kinds of terrorism, and there's all kinds of problems instability governments falling apart unable to form coalitions. You know like the the whole Plethora of problems. So what is it about? Multiparty systems that are protective here, and if there is something, then why isn't there a more obvious difference between how all the multiparty systems have traditionally been governed in how and what they've been able to achieve in America? Well, at one I think there is an obvious difference in one of the things that convinced me that multipartyism would be good for America is just kind of looking at the accumulated literature. of the performance of proportional multiparty democracy is compared to majoritarian plurality democracies and the performance is consistently better. Now, that's not to say that there aren't collapses or problems individual countries, but you know as a as a political scientists in as a social science I, look at the aggregate and at an aggregate multi-party democracies have voters who feel better about how their political system works higher levels of voter participation voters who. Are Overall, just just happier the more spending on on on social welfare programs which I think are are good less economic inequality, and it's not to say that any system of government is perfect and you know I I know when whenever you argue that something would be better that there's a tendency to say, oh, well, well, that ball here the problems with multi-party democracy and yeah, I. Mean Politics is hard and politics is especially hard in a moment in which the issues of national identity are front and center in which you have urban-rural divides. It and these things are affecting democracies you know across the world. But when you look at the proportional democracies, they have political coalitions that are readjusting. So throughout the Western democracies, there's probably about fifteen to twenty percent support for kind of right wing populist party. But what you see in the party proportional systems is that you can kind of create a a a a shifting coalition that is a way to kind of push those parties out of power or if they have to share power their junior partner and often quickly they they collapsed because their entire. Reason d'etre is is an anti system. But in the US you know Donald Trump can take over the Republican Party Donald Trump is basically the donald trump's. It gets you know thirty percent of the of the vote. In. The primary maybe forty percent of people are Republicans. So by that logic is basically a twelve percent party, but because of the strength of partisanship and because of the binary nature of our politics. He gets to take over the entire Republican Party and there's no alternate place for people who are right of center to go than otherwise to embrace him and. So unlike a proportional democracies where you can have the sort of realignment shifting coalitions to marginalize extremism in the US or the UK to some extent Once you know a kind of trump like extremist figure takes over one of the parties. That's Kinda game over. So I want to make sure that as we talk about this were were not being to theoretical with it. We're trying to imagine it in the American. Political System. So yeah, as I understand the way, you think about it, you sort of think about politics as having two dimensions in four quadrant so you can be. Sort of populist conservative on economics, and then you can be sort of like progressive or reactionary on questions of identity and demographics i. think he'd differently but I, I basically put it there. And what you say is it like a two party system has room for two of these, and so you end up having like fights within the parties as he tried to figure out like which quadrant they're going to occupy or they stretch across multiple and showing the Republican Party of fight right now between sort of a market based economics party that is a little more you know like teetering between socially reactionary and a little more accepting of the way the country is changing and that up more populist economics party is much more socially reactionary, which certainly what trump's rhetoric was if not what his governs record has been. Tucker Carlson or Josh Holly trying to go now in a multi party system I. Think you your view is that we would have a party sort of representing either squad separately, and so does that just lead you to a world in which the sort of economically populous but social reactionary party is dominant. Like is and is out a better world. I don't know if they'd be dominant you know I. I think what you'd wind up I mean I'm not sure you wind up with the four parties perfectly occupying the quadrants and you might you might wind up with five or six parties. But if you look at public opinion in the United States, you know broadly sixty seventy percent of people support the Democrats economic programs. So those are those are broadly popular, but yet they can't pass because of the way the Republican coalition is structured holding together You know the populace who are socially conservative, economically liberal and. And therefore vote based on on on the social issues rather than economic issues now, I think what you would. You might see different coalitions on different issues, which was what we saw in earlier for party system in which the US passed a pretty broad social welfare state and. kind of went a little bit back and forth on civil rights social issues I mean that's an area where we're much more divided as a country I. Think now, I think the the last several years country has moved more left on the cultural social issues largely in reaction to donald trump and perhaps changing demographics but the challenge is that those are incredibly polarizing. Zero some issues and if you put them into a binary politics also divided by reach geography and and all these other stacked identities that's a recipe for sitting democracy on fire if you split them up among a few different parties in allow different parties to kind of have different ways of dealing with immigration different ways of dealing with religious freedom then I think. You least allow for some wait to find some compromises on those issues now I'm not gonNA. Say That those issues won't continue to be divisive but I think part of the problem with our political system in why the temperatures through the roof and everybody's going crazy is because it feels like every election, the entire sense of who are we as a nation is. Going to be at stake, and if the other side gets into power, they're gonNA use that power to impose this vision that seems totally anathema to our side, and you know that is a that is a psychological consequence of this two party system. But did you agree earlier that a common conceptual mistake we make about voters vote based on ideal policy as opposed to? Partisanship partisanship here is functionally standing in for identity and. Claims but sort of group do you feel yourself to be in what sort of country do you feel yourself to be in? What I noticed in your back in one of my the space storm, a little less convinced to is when you imagine the multi-party system, you imagine much more substantive policy bargaining space than the one we have now, but it's not clear to me why same dynamics would take over and some cases couldn't even be worse. Maybe you have more parties out competing each other on claims of identity or more reactionary views of what it means to be an American or if you're on the other side of this much more woke views. And it'd be even harder to get any agreement to Ottawa, just have things collapsing into into into more fracture. So why should I believe that policy and substantive bargaining will have a purchase in multi-party system that it doesn't have a in a two party system or there are plenty of incentives to bargain. There are plenty of is compromised the filibuster which makes it. You can't pass anything and still you can't get any bargaining done I mean I think one of the reasons why you should expect more substantive policy in multi party systems is because that's What you see in multiparty systems is that the parties actually stand more clearly for particular policies You know if you watch the Democratic convention, there wasn't a lot of policy. There was all about how dangerous Donald Trump would be. If you watch the Republican convention, there was even less policy. There was all about how how Joe Biden wants to set the country on fire and turn America into something else that you won't even recognize the reason that parties do that in the US and a in for negative partisanship there's just kind of blurring the lines is because there's actually Not a ton of agreement on policy. But if you think about the Democratic primary in which there were multiple candidates in, you could do that as a stand in for a Multi Party democracy the candidates couldn't say my opponent is terrible and you know Blah Blah Blah Kennedy's actually had to come out and Stanford different policies and that created a space where it allowed voters to kind of have a more substantive policy debate because there were more ideas there the two party system creates a dynamic and we're supposed to actually don't have to really offer much in the way of policy. And don't have to stand for all that much. So partisan takes over. The other point is that partisan ship is just not quite as much of a driving identity in multi party systems because voters change parties more frequently because it's a lot easier to move you know one party to the laughter one party to the right and still not feel like you're being a traitor to your side and so as a result, the identity just becomes less total leising like it is in the US. So you know it's not to say that voters are totally policy driven, but I think they. Are More policy-driven and there's just less negative partisanship in a multi party system because you can't just say, well, the other side's terrible. You know vote for me we we hear the phrase lesser of two evils a lot in American politics but you know if you Google as lesser of three evils which I did part of the crack research for my book, the only reference I could find was a martial arts film which was terribly reviewed and did extremely poorly after say the methodologies being employed today by political scientists or just more and more impressive it's a real through a Quantitative Rigor. Let me let me offer another challenge and I want to say here just to put my cards on the table, I would pass your bill in a second and we're going to get to what it is and how it works but I make sure we've sort of kicked the tires of this pretty hard. All right. So I think there's an argument to be made that it is not the two party system that is creating this distinction. So we talked earlier about how the system does not currently put whoever wins more votes or GonNa. Plurality, of votes into office routinely we have things like the Filibuster, not only the filibuster. You can take the filibuster out in America still has more veto points in any other events democracy and it's very hard to pass anything in our system and basically impossible under the current conditions and if you put multipartyism did that system, you would also have very little policy happening. One theory I hold about American politics is one reason it is. So identity forward right now is it policy-making? Itself has become nearly impossible, and so if parties cannot come in promised to do things do them and then it. Show the American people like, Hey, look at this great thing we did and house improving your life. You should put us back in power. They're going to default to claims about national identity, racial identity, etc. because they have to run on symbolism because can't credibly run on policy. Now Democrats promise all kinds of policies to some degree although lesser. So the LASOTA O two Republicans but that how much of what you're looking for here would simply be achieved by get rid of the out pro college get rid of the Filibuster you know gerrymandering etc that you could they give a two party system was a governable two party system and almost parliamentary two party system than would work just fine. Okay. So Let's let's just just put a put a proposal on the table. You know are we saying that? Democrats add DC in. Puerto Rico to the Senate we make it a national popular vote and that Kinda balances things out and. Let let's put propose here basically what I would call like the idealized or like a Ma of model two party system where it's actually a democracy and everybody who is a citizen is actually represented by a member of Congress and by member the US Senate and that like the the Senate can pass bills with a majority of the vote and the rare occasions. One Party controls a great thing. But how rare it actually is to see TRIFECTA governance in America like it's hard NCO. I WanNa know how much work the unusual impediments of the American two party system is doing hearing your argument versus how much it's actually to versus for parties because like let's say you did something that added more parties but did it take care of these other issues? You might just end up in the same problems? Right, we would still have a separation of powers system. We're not. We're not moving to full west. Where we're still gotTA okay. Okay. We're not writing the constitution. Okay. So now like I mean the idea I I think is that or at least the implicit I idea defending or two party system is that it we should let one party get into power and push forward it's agenda, and then we should judge the results and if we don't like them vote The bums out and let the other party have a chance is that is that a fair assessment of like what you think would would be better about that yes. I am saying that because a context was part of our conversation is why would people care more about policy in a multi-party system I am saying maybe the reason Partisanship, in symbolic issues. So powerful in our system right now is policy making is functionally impossible. That's not a two party versus four-party question that is A. Are Do, you have a system in which governance of any kind of majority that is plausible can be done or not. Okay. So now I mean I know you're not proposing the Westminster system but like we we have an example of this, which is the British system, which is a system in which majorities get total control over the government and others no separation of powers, the House of Lords, pretty much minimal power. So you get majoritarian government and you get it good and hard, and nobody's looking at the UK as a as a shining example of how democracy is supposed. To work right now, in part because the UK is suffering from the same urban rural division as the US. In the UK has the same first past the system. There's also this problem of the party that gets only a plurality of the votes and sometimes less votes winds up the majority in parliament, the same system that New Zealand had, and it was a disaster and that's why New Zealand in the nineteen nineties became a proportional democracy in the. Voters overwhelmingly supported that they've been much better since we hold a New Zealand as a as a thriving democracy but I wanted to talk a little more about the this sort of idealized Westminster system or the idealized like let the party in power have a shot and govern. Now that theory kind of like it makes sense in the Westminster System because like the party that controls parliament really does have a chance to get It's it's legislation through. unless of course, it's internally divided as has been over Brexit, but even there you have the problem that parties kind of this always been the criticism of UK politics swings are are are actually to wild conservatives getting power. They do something Labor got some paradise the opposite, and there's kind of this this this whiplash quality. Now in the US system, we don't have that ability for for a simple majority in one house and said, we have you know bicameralism. Plus presidentialism with Vito it's not. We don't particularly strong president as compared to Latin American countries, but you know we still presidentialism with a strong executive. Branch plus judicial review plus a fair degree of federalism. which which makes it really hard for voters to tell who's in charge and yes, you know even if you had one party total control in Washington out there, it's still really hard to to get stuff done because the parties themselves are are are a little bit internally divided sometimes but I think even even bigger problem with that is is the allegation of accountability because partisanship and are binary system is really Strong and how's the economy doing well depends if you're a republican or a Democrat and so the the ideal of let's evaluate the party in power and then if they don't deliver will pick the other party assumes that that voters are standing astride partisanship don't have any loyalty or at least a lot of them don't have any loyalty so they're able to judge the facts correctly they're not. I? Agree this. But how is that different? I mean four parties makes them more able to judge the party's correctly doesn't just make it more complicated well now now we're getting into a different theory of government. So there's if we think about, but these are the two I'm trying to compare. Yeah. Okay. So let's let's let's think about that. So the the the promise of a majoritarian two party system is that you get accountability. You can put a party in government and see what it does, and then if you like the results you can vote for another party now I, you know that may work in the Westminster System in which there is no clear majority in the in the in the parliament act I. Don't think it makes much sense in the US system because it's really hard to tell who's in charge in and you know. So the alternate. View of as the proportional view of democracy is that well, actually what we want is the legislature that's representative and we're GONNA WE'RE GONNA. Trade a little bit of accountability for representation. So we're going to vote for parties that stand for more targeted policies or more targeted does and then we're GONNA send our representatives to the legislature and they're going to form a government and They were gonNA bargain amongst themselves and we're not going to be able to hold them accountable for results in the same way but we are going to be able to tell whether they are adequately representing views. So you know it it's all politics is is is coalition, and in some ways you can think of the fundamental difference between majoritarian proportional democracy as a majoritarian democracy, the coalition happens. Before the election and in proportional democracy coalition making happens after the election and that's that's how it works, and then the question is what are the consequences of that and you know the consequences if you WanNa do a knock on multi-party democracy is that voters don't really know what government they're getting exactly but you know in some ways that's been the the the way that American democracy. has worked it's worked well, is it voters don't know what bargains members of Congress are GonNa make when they get to Washington and who's GonNa Trade? What for what to get some some bipartisan bill through all they know is that they're electing somebody to represent them and they can only judge how well that person is is representing them on show will return after a quick message. Mar Sponsors. 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Ranked choice voting which is which some of your listeners may know is a system whereby voters get to rank candidates in order of preference, and then as candidates get eliminated from the bottom up votes transfer. So what it means is that you can vote for a third party without your vote being spoiler, and this is been implemented in a number of cities throughout the US, the spending in use. In Australia for over one hundred years in Ireland and the effect is that you get politics. That's a little bit more oriented towards towards the middle a little bit more compromise oriented in voters feel like they're better able to express themselves. Now you know if I could rewrite the constitution, I would absolutely make the Senate proportional, which is what James Madison wanted to do but. That, we have a Senate that has a single winner elections because there's only two senators per state in they're not elected at the same time I think that's the best we can do for the Senate. So then tell me about why it would make sense to expand the House to seven hundred people. Well the House has been at four, hundred, thirty, five members since since nineteen eleven lot of people don't don't know this sort of fun history is that Madison's the what what became the bill of Rights is actually twelve amendments. The First Amendment was an apportionment amendment in which Madison said in when we got up to a hundred members, how should be House district should be thirty thousand people up to two hundred members should be fifty thousand, and then after that that that's that's as big as it should get per per district. Size, and now we have about eight hundred, thousand people per district. That's by far the largest in the world and you know it's really hard for members to adequately represent constituencies well, when there's eight hundred, thousand of them and so I think a larger house would bring members of Congress closer to their constituencies and I, think it would be better for democracy. Now you know I especially like it because I think it pairs well with the multi-member member ranked choice voting, which is the idea that reading than having a single district you combine. Three to five districts into one multi winner district atop, we'll say it's five number district. The top five wins go to Congress, and then it becomes proportional like Ireland and like what Australia does for Senate, and so you can have multiple parties. You don't have to win a plurality in any given geographical region with what that means is you'd get a lot more diversity diversity you get some bay area Republicans, for example, in Congress, and you'd get some you know more Democrats from. Oklahoma or probably what you'd have is just different parties you'd have you know I i. my guess would be that you'd probably have about two to three parties on the left to three parties on the right of the bus right? Spectrum would seem less clear as the parties of all. and. That would I think be much better for a democracy in America and then an end to congressional primaries and an enter congressional primaries because we have these primaries where very few people participate. and. We don't really need to have congressional primaries if we have multi-party proportional elections. Instead, we can let parties pick their candidates and parties have an incredibly important role to play in democracy. You can't have a modern mass democracy without strong parties and the way to house stronger parties is to give them control over who gets to carry the Party label and for parties to have clear brands, and for there to be institutional gatekeepers who can keep your, who's like Donald Trump out of the party and or or all these kyun on people who are you know winning Republican primaries and I think if you combine those you would have a much. Better functioning democracy in this country I mean I, I don't WanNa say we'll be perfect but I think it won't be on the brink of collapse. Why should I believe any of this possible? You currently have a two party duopoly. Most of the reforms that we're talking about here would somehow have to go through either the Congress or state legislatures at are dominated by the two parties at presumably enjoy a system in which they are the only ones who can win how does how Eat York she spent some time on trying to make this trying to convince people. This kind of thing can happen because it has happened in the past. So how is it happened and and why do you think it can happen now wants a little seemed able to happen now. Well there have been numerous major democracy reforms in the US. We're talking about the progressive era, the progressive era. Led to direct initiatives and referenda led to direct primary direct election of senators. Senator Susan. been appointed and now women's suffrage which we are celebrating the hundredth anniversary of all these things which seem impossible when they started and what happened was that a lot of people bulletin quitting some people in politics this this system doesn't work and this system is corrupt and the system is broken and we ought to try something different and I, think there are some tremendous similarities between this current era and. The the late gilded age early progressive era when it comes to the extent to which people are really dissatisfied with politics in which inequality is incredibly high in which young there are. There's there's a flowering of social movements demanding really big change in the country is having this kind of identity crisis and so looking at what happened in the progressive era and comparing it to today makes me feel like actually. Democracy reform is possible and I mentioned New Zealand a little bit ago. A New Zealand is you know suspiciously a smaller country, but it's it's a country that in the nineteen nineties changed from a first-past-the-post Westminster Party system to a multi party system, and by every measure New Zealand is doing incredibly well and is constantly one of the top performing democracies. I think the the other challenge here is to is in when thinking about what's possible is to appreciate the fact that the parties themselves are not monoliths and there are a lot of Republicans and a lot of Democrats who serve in Washington and like feel like the entire system is fundamentally broken. They don't like being foot soldiers in this endless partisan warfare where they go to Washington and they do except for you know go on dawn TV in and fundraise and send out press releases they want to actually do something and saw some big problems and again I think there are a lot more divisions within both parties than the the the national hyper partisan conflict allows us to see and. If you propose this system. I, think there are a lot of rank and file members would say, yeah actually maybe that would be better now is Nancy Pelosi GonNa like it now is chuck. Schumer. GonNa like it. No but you know the reforms happen from the bottom up and there are these moments in which there is a revolt of the bottom. And things get overturned. The other thing that I would note is that these reforms are also quite popular in the in the places in the cities and in the states where. Were campaigns are being run their main voters twice enacted ranked choice voting as a as a popular initiative despite efforts by Republicans to kill it In Massachusetts, there is a ballot initiative happening this fall on rank choice voting question to it's been endorsed by Bill Olden and Deval Patrick and. And it was with Warren and a bunch of folks left and right in Massachusetts. This creates a question though that I I sometimes think about because you tell the story in the book of these past efforts and the direct election of senators. Know. Quite long ago. And just when you look in that period in American life, the political system and the constitution are more plastic. We are passing constitutional amendments reasonably often actually on, and now we pass him basically never we see a lot of experimentation there isn't this veneration where we seem to consider the Constitution and our political system somehow untouchable to the further we get away from the founding the more we treat it not as something men did but some sort of holy writ handed down to us by by the founders from Mount. Sinai? And it strange and so the bit of Pushback i WanNa give you and I don't WanNa focus too much on this because the fact that things are difficult doesn't make the not worth talking about. But you know how hard everything is to get through the system I mean he stated this more closely than I do, and so you know that bottom up projects have a lot of trouble. I'm even when they're very popular because they can't get things passed. The partisanship picks over the legislature's blocking the Senate has a filibuster and so one. This is one of my really big concerns for for the American political experiment that I think the way we think it should work is we organized people and we push. You know we push and then when enough people get organized and they pushed hard enough things change. And that really that many recent examples of that happening not literally not. But I mean look at things like the mass movements on gun control look things like the mass movements for black lives matter and look at things that matter for for the Republican side even for the mass movement, you know to to repeal Obamacare, which is popular for a minute at least. So like give me one more version of this. So yes, like let's say that there's frustration the party system. What is the mechanism? Do you imagine happening state by state and slowly the other states fall like is it is it is that the path that takes how do you actually see this playing out specifically not just like public support then does what well you know I think most likely it will play out state by state. Alaska is also voting on rank choice voting and you know I could see initiatives that are twenty six or twenty seven states that allow for initiatives You know there may be some legislatures as well that decide that they wanna go this way and. Like there's an old old hemingway line about how to how did we go broke slowly and all at once and and I sort of feel that that's how political change happens. It happens in these kind of tonic ways in which you know there's there's nothing for a while there's pressure building up and then there's an earthquake that this is how we think of systems change in. Kinda this gradual way. But when you look at the history of American democracy, there have been these moments in which a lot of things changed really quickly. Civil Civil Rights there was a lot of pressure building up for a long time, and at some point things change they changed very quickly and I can't predict the future but you know it does seem to me that the level of frustration with the political system and the broken -ness of the political system are really hitting a breaking point. I think we're seeing it play out in real time as we get closer and closer to this election, and at some point, the cooler heads. In as well as people who who have you know and people who have a stake in the system have to say look what we're doing is not working and you know here are some other alternatives. I. I will note that there is a pupil recently in which sixty two percent of Americans said that we need fundamental changes to the way our system works and I will note that nothing that I propose in my reform package, it would require constitutional mended. It's all totally constitutional and if. The constitutional amendment territory we could we could really dream. The all all this would require an act of Congress, and you know, heck if Democrats have the try sector in. Early Twenty, twenty one maybe it's time to say, let's try something totally different rather than just like adding DC and getting rid of filibuster you know getting into court packing. Rather, than escalating and just raising the temperature higher, maybe it's time to step back and say, well, what would it different and potentially more workable political system even look like and let's use our power to do that. Instead of trying to get some now advantage that then we'll lose two or four years later I that's too optimistic and I think that in this way as I understood the way as I understand the way these reforms play out. One of their components is democratization. So under these reforms that you, you're not really looking at the the Electoral College although I assume I think I know where you would stand on that and you're for national compact, but But these would reduce the discrepancy between what people want and what they get. And his I. American politics right now that discrepancy is a partisan divide Republicans, see that as a danger to them. And so I don't know one of the things I think is very tricky. Right now is that. Virtually anything that makes America more small democratic more responsive is the government has become a partisan fight because it's seen as power play for for Democrats to as you just saying about like these Puerto Rico like sometimes it gets talked about as narrow partisan advantage that's letting fucking have political representation. It drives me so crazy when senators talk about that as some. kind of plot or Armageddon option or or or anything else. That's just how this country's supposed to work. It's democracy like convince me that convinced me that I'm too pessimistic here. Why do you think that if Democrats came into power as at great we're gonNA ranked choice voting and instant runoff voting and we're GonNa make sure that people actually get what they want. In an era when not getting what they want has continuously brought Republicans into power republic be like, Hey, that's a great point. Well I think you are redefining re the Republican Party as this you singular unit now. There are elements in the Republican Party that feel that way. But I think that there are also a lot of factions in groups and Representatives in the Republican Party? Who feel really trapped in this system and understand that they are in a system that is You know is going to work against them at some point and are are quite terrified of what would happen if Democrats get that majority as as the current Democratic Party and the. Benefit of a proportional system is that some of these groups would actually you know have a chance to share power from time to time rather than being a permanent minority I think that's The. The the fact, some ways it should be the Republican Party and the the groups in the Republican Party particular who should actually be most welcoming of these reforms because they mean that it will be harder for the Democratic Party when eventually the demographics. Of Pushed Democrats into power despite the hurdles it will be easier for the you know the the Evangelical Christian groups and other groups to to actually have some some modest influence and participation in the national government, and I know that the politics of electoral reform in Western Europe in the early twentieth century in which a lot of European democracies went from being majoritarian to proportional systems. The politics often involved conservative parties saying hold on suddenly we have enfranchisement. Of Workers in cities and the Socialists are going to take over and if the socialist get majority power, they're going to do crazy things. So let's support this proportional system, which is you know more of a peace treaty ensures that will have some participation and that the Socialists won't get total control. So to me, it seems like Republicans and and we all know this and Republicans no this is that they're they're fighting a losing war on on democracy that at some point we'll catch up with them and this is a way of of reaching a peace treaty that would prevent Democratic Party from pushing a majoritarian agenda on them someday potentially. From your lips to the Republican. Party's ears I hope. Let me let me ask our final question here, which is where to three books recommend three books that I would recommend you know one is e e Shat. Snyder's the semi sovereign people You know which is a really wonderful. Book in in a number of ways one, it's it's really kind of book that that helped me to think about politics in a multidimensional way, and also it's just a beautifully written book A second book. Anna knows analysis one of your favorites as well. Ileana masons on civil agreement yet, which I think is a brilliant book really helped me to understand just the dangerous psychology of the way binary sorted two party system drives us all crazy and just just the. I think it's just a really important book and a third book book that I think might be a little more unfamiliar book called Different Democracy American government in a thirty one country perspective in its written for political scientists. Lead author is Steven Taylor and it was I read it a while ago and it was one of these books that really opened my eyes the fact. That the US has a really weird system of government and I think we don't appreciate how odd. Democracy until we look at what the of the world does lead Trotman. Thank you very much. My pleasure. Thank you to lead Druckman for being here. All of you for being here to Russia Karma for research. Yelled for producing the club shows Fox media podcast. Production. This is the sound of busy advertising marketing and technology event in one, thousand, nine, hundred. You know where people used to meet in real life and where people actually had to wear trousers in order to conduct meetings. Whoops it was here that you'll business heroes would predict the future. This is marketing for the sake of better marketing until suddenly. ooh stopped. But now with Bach? Coming on about. Week Twenty, twenty, a brand new virtual event, the advertising marketing and technology world. We're giving listeners a twenty percent discount on tickets with the Code Vox. Twenty twenty. So head over to virtual does advertising DOT COM to learn. And it only underscores how powerful the right to George is that it requires such significant, financial and human resources to keep people away from the polls it's Apocryphal but they say that Mark Twain. Said history may not repeat itself but show due rhyme. A Low in the Heiser, I'm the host of by the people a new Fox. PODCASTS miniseries focused on voting rights in the twenty twenty election. Each episode will exam specific obstacle facing voters in this election and they out various policy proposals and practical ways to overcome that obstacle. In this season, we're going to cover America's history of voter suppression the impact of couvert on voting ways. The constitution is structurally rigged against democratic majorities and the role. The Supreme Court has played in dismantling many of our voting rights. New Episodes of by the people can be found each Saturday in the weeds fee.

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Shadows: Midnight Is Come

The Secret History of Hollywood

6:10:35 hr | 1 year ago

Shadows: Midnight Is Come

"For Ruth who trusted me it was at the foot of a country garden New England circus of fairies had gathered to see the accident is work the king and Queen on High Fan the Summer Sun Away with the help of a plaque again until the ground is Westwood Bland Criminal Lunatic was the Labor must be put to death with that Richard drew from his jacket a kitchen knife and plundered savagely into his father's chest again attached to the name of Richard Dad Dangerous Volatile Madman who murdered his father and Co planned but in the aftermath of the killing himself until finally he was a full week behind traveling companion by the time they were reunited on the voyage home there was something different roundings instead he seemed to grow more nervous more agitated and was prone to outbursts of teeth we the dad family arrived collectively in the Kent Countryside and set up a temporary home so as to care for this hun but he was not brightened by Sir at the home it was the effect of the some they were told her arrest in English countryside with do the boy well in the mind of Richard Dad perhaps the most blessed and curse statistic mind of the nineteenth century riches request his father accompanied him on a walk through Cobham Park on evening and as the light fell Richard stopped his father to tell him secret has quickly as dad would find a worthy subject for his canvas with patron insist upon moving along to the next town eventually dad began to separate Richard knew that he was not really as father a cyrus had told him in Egypt that he was really the devil hiding his father's body and above all things he most terrible tasked perform dad's family were concerned for their returning son who fringed away their embraces and withdrew himself angrily enjoy fiercly beautiful and defiantly unconventional images that could only have sprung from the brave mind of the mad from within the walls Aden's watch from between the stems of flowers from ruffles in the dirt the Axeman as he planned the strike that could send the Hazel in that in half but the blood kafue his father told him we are here and we will not leave you to this Malays however it may manifest itself depend on came peace to his mind last with the peace a spring of creativity and so it was the Richard Dad began to paint wants more enigmatic works of darkness feel the blade of the axe but went best place the blown demagogue rich man frowning artist Baker's boy in to ferry Bryson's began to bloom and furiously would he paint the vistas and treasures he found but the wealthy patron had no time for baking in the Sun himself to privacy and mumble about his meetings with the Egyptian gods in the sands of Egypt of a new business and a cyrus who'd come to him he insisted and who had given him his woes had begun youth when an impressed Patriot dragged along a tour of Turkey Syria and finally Egypt it was here the DADS at present okay oh produce avow Luton's we the income is a modest seven hundred dollars upon which he supports a wife two children to buicks a dog a donkey elsa these new home a place they called rest today right the fairy Horner's looked on the side to buffet x-men his tool held high plump hazelnuts his feet soon did not come the axe remained raised poised to fall the same beautiful arcane and terrifying and and his house is filled with books he can get through an average novel in forty five minutes and lifts many ideas from old plots which he likes better about picture dat no longer did he bubble with artistic eagerness instead he would consider symbol and a picture high priced stars brand new sets and as much as a million dollars to play around from life magazine Nineteen Forty five million dollars snapped Jack Gross since when does a horror movie the lines of its Jane add tropical setting loosens bosses like they're planning to give him as soon as the new system the writing of all his productions will sum up the latest epic by saying something read a great and twice bowled for one joyous moment imagine gross being crushed on the bath feet like one of his Merlo Brethren uh-huh play around with Jack of all the things you could choose to talk about today of all days said Kinda he reached for the not yet folded newspaper on his desk and for the imposing headline that he'd been staring at all morning you realize what's happening in the world outside the world outside is not my concern use movies go fall off and produce watches film grow said Loton he hasn't told me everything yet something about a mad house and chickens and such minor pledges as Woodwork and book by Victor Mill Avenue Sixty is a great reader censoring up a perfectly decent bottle of Red Okay Jack I'll bite goodness what the hell are you talking about God now if there's nothing father Jack I'd like to get started on my lunch pail and it takes me a long time to peel my hard boiled eggs cost a million dollars John's Kinda side sank into his job he was growing awfully tied being yelled at by this man Oh watch more surprising Gana said the fact that you believe her story like that or the fact that that's the story that caught your eye today the true costs it isn't the paper on his desk again my God he'd given up hope long ago of ever seeing a headline so glorious yesterday morning this gross he's holding out an almost pathologically flattened magazine I can't scare up three hundred grand from using these days but newton gets a million dollars and I suppose bars will be drafted do you realize that I'm the man respond just Jacquard realized that you are the man responsible for bringing Karloff here troll China said on Jack I'm growing a little tired of talking you down from Ledge is I'm not paying you to verify the integrity of the press I'm paying you unconditional surrender of all German land the and Apple in Europe united that peace loving nations have demonstrated in the West that bear arms on stronger aw the surprise meetings make all you cleared with my secretary that way she gets to do her job you got to do yard job a moment later gross them towards the door and then swung around seven hundred dollars a week I mean that's almost what you pay me goodbye Jack and if you want anymore gross had slammed the door behind him Canada's side long slow savoring the silence in the room and then looks down at the news in high come on and grand admiral done it the designated head of the German state signed the Act at two forty one a m at general it Nala headquartered General Jodel the representative of the on grow snapped. It's this studio I mart about it's knowing that the world's reading this story and laughing at us did you give our route and a million dollars hello five four then the might of dictators are the tyranny of military cliques that once called US salt and the allied expeditionary reported and Timmel Tena doesn't Soviet I am on the gunman walked in that ball and communicate issued by the German High Command announced that henceforth the greeting Heil Hitler will be Bam within the German Armed Forces ad-hoc aol I also realize that vows to movies went him of made him just about the biggest star in Hollywood right now so mind you remember that when it comes to Christmas Week Peres victory celebrations on this way they may not be very riot isn't hysterical that they're going on we've come a long way we've learned is we Americans have more to learn and learned it faster than anyone else record out over the ocean still ever sons they'll hung in the same place all afternoon same breath of wind from the East took the same lick of L. Problems honestly and do what must be done if the war has taught us that it has not been in vain separate from the rest it taught us to that in a partnership of nations can work nations can work together as long as both sides up and perhaps most of all the war taught us or should've taught us that you can't buy out of unpleasant things with money or production seven hundred dollars a week was more money than they knew how to spend but they suddenly hadn't been afraid try the House to Nazis were gone forever they were saying ruth tug on her yellow garden gloves and looked proudly down to be bombed plants many was the opposite in every respect she was almost a short has vowed junior with the rosiest smile side of ause and she was far around the television said even though they couldn't get a station out here next year's vacation Silva Marshall Radio set tensions or anything the only response to the basic problem with confront our nation can be faith and sacrifice and cooperation we have to meet hips mini chuckled and made for the House dinner on called Ruth Park Browse many yelled ruth remember there's other things as well as the surgers train things that are good they well to remember taught us first of all that we couldn't do it alone that we couldn't being paid off completely a college fund for Nina and vowed junior was already in place before the House a Bright Blue Buick sat proudly And still the dollars arrived why didn't ruth take it a little easier they had an extra bedroom if they hide for the first few weeks of his career the Luton's had called him Raymond but he was quickly moaning Minnie was the perfect blend of Mrs Beeton dinnertime and General Eisenhower bath the good news was making them grow she was sure of it it had been three days since the war had ended and the euphoria was palpable on the air as the salt from you have met him with the weapons of his own choosing you have finally complete the body snatcher and the critical success of I love the dead her husband had been recognized as one of the most valuable produces and his salary raised accordingly having a made when she was young roof nap porchester assigning harassed woman cold mottle sin as a pencil and skin the color of weak tea drive to the studio and back each day doing something far more constructive than dodging potholes and looking for parking spaces the Luton's now how to show fine you're too good at everything in the distance she had the trough of her husband's typewriter since the financial success local man named Alfredo was hard to come once a week to keep the lawns in Jack and walk the donkey around and reasoning that he could spend the hours water she heard minis tiny footsteps on the stones and Hut a new laws chink down on the table You make me drink anymore iced tea or get a blue note does she said where are you getting his ice anyway I didn't realize there was this much is in California don't you like it I adore it living may then ruth got to wake up two hours later than usual with breakfast already on the table and nothing to worry about except flowerbeds and wet take a walk alongside a bright red one a new couch Silva Wha- a camera they didn't understand Persian rugs summer's dream now no he he was painter Oh and good yeah pretty good so off let's see now bill an architect no wasn't he the fellow who wrote the the midnight eight paintings you see Tom Story he inherited a fortune from his father but he spends it on extravagances well that's what I do said Bill trade and he says he's American says underarms needed no proof you have been true rechristened to bill once Luton had discovered to his horror that Raymond was sunny I'm not just school Egypt Bill Lieutenant told him his most glorious challenged by Nuxie Braggart you dropped your peaceful pursuits and beat him make eighteenth century he painted eight pictures that's told the story of a man named Tom Rockwell real fallow no made up so anyway over the course of the approve if I did that I was thinking more along the lines of a new refrigerator so each painting shows what's happening to Tom next in his story there first names only round here I mean we're not socialists or anything but not the gentry either you'll be bill and I'll be all to this restructuring of the kind of like a comic Strip Luton Grin Yeah like a comic strip why do you know about that relationship bill had simply shrugged JSO watch the new movie Mr Liu vow how familiar are you with the work of William Hogarth they're not for instance as prevalent and automatic as the scene which followed the liberation of Paris that for the first time since the liberation there's a real sense of happiness and really being home in an asylum he's lost his money and his mind by now so he ends his days that being comforted by the girl he jilted when he came into his fortune we'd have songs well I mean never say never we loved the Song Movies Bill grinned reminds us of the twenties everyone was a lot happier in the twenties still down the walls finished will all be a lot happier I hope so said Luton otherwise what was it off arrogance f.a.s.t and yet the wild had changed forever it was healed more than prejudice arrive the archaic gates the God lean down and tipped his hat to Luton then ushered them through so then paintings that bill I was just I don't know I saw it and I was a little taken by it and so I want to tell a story set in that place well it sounds like a pep said Bill Dan Bill said Luton arranging tie makes everything taste a lot better even beats is going to be a busy one today bill I have meeting moneys that to be enjoyed he spends it on prostitutes and wind gambling bills at pursing his lips. I don't think my family aw it's gold a rake's progress and this is the story a turning into a movie not the whole thing the last picture in the story shows oracles of wisdom were always discarded at the door like umbrellas and would spend the next twenty minutes catching up with each other at the desk a tormented zero and typewriter souls and the ongoing woes of trying to book fast glass air travel at a moment's notice the collective aid in the executive reception was alive with wildlife nine. Am Monday meetings always meant arriving as with the executives all day why don't you take the Mris to the movies state fast playing at the Walton I may just do that said bill thank you Mr loop thanks studio and walking straight to the boardroom in the company of your personal secretary receiving any known briefings away the draw blood at least twice that morning already before the desk a congregation of platinum starlets who'd given up the acting dreams Avow Luton padded bill shoulder and slid out of the car only to ask me that question again or any other form because the answer will be yes every time money never made anyone happy long ago and who are putting those night class inaugural certificates to good use Margot Deanna and Lulu Bow trixie on the other looked around at the gals nodding in greeting and then court Luton's I for a moment Luton thought he saw him frown and wanted from the look if perhaps this man of this flamboyance flamingos kind of being more than two hundred split even and on the sidelines the only Brunette in the room and the clear hairstyle shorter cool bill pulled the car outside the Executive Office you think we'll be able to get real bader again soon said bell you will but oh no sir no but I'm a big Fat Guy I've been following your work for years now seen all your movies thank you dozen just like them with chopping like sparrows in powder blue skies and Jangling hoop earrings their voices blending into a painful song that told of hotel contemporaries Verna Demont's Luton's personal secretary doubling the age of the room in one guy from the and shopping expenses be honest Bina would money really make your life happy Ah yes it would would money bring you real happiness vanished oh what's the name Crema he said removing his hat force Lieutenant Stanley Kramer Louise picked up a phone and Mahmad the man as she clutched the Manila folder to her chest with both arms Luton could tell she was terrified by these creatures as he was run is is met his than Swan seen the thing that they're announcing some kind of deal I've had your name come up a few times now hard to tell which drain came out though Patricia what are these girls have that you don't have well according to Rahab of Glendale there and apartment bought and paid for China say how's Your House made and you Persian Rog and you chauffeur and you knew silverware working out yeah rule very happy slowly back round to the aviary you look like you've brought them all here on a school trip he said funny thing as she amendment through a frown I don't thank they're even speaking English I think visit us from another planet any idea what the meetings about well the Hyena there with a tennis ball breast formed young man with a square as Jor Luton had ever seen beneath his arm was a thick folder and upon his cheeks Scarlett of embarrassment the swarm of and I had to watch him all drift back to Hollywood to make real movies real stories it's a gift you know they have a message and have the right to set impressing people I get so nervous you should've seen me one I met CAPRA Utah I was trying to ask him to marry me God is surprised at how well I'm doing right now I mean it's Louise was struggling to answer Kohl's with her right hand and fending away questions with laughed she looked as though she hadn't slept for weeks and her nails look deserted and it out and I want that for myself director Kramer Shroud I've directed yeah but I want to shape the whole thing I wanted Daddy Luton chuckled once in the folder ever I've done everything I wanna do dreams I guess I never been that good Kramer had crossed the room and take his hand my God he said you'll Luton your vow looting do I know you Stanley was it the Stanley Kramer so I've been working with the signal car out of New York for the past few years making training films and stuff for the army pretty good at it too aw he motioned towards Luton and blushed producer. Luton said you're masochist Stanley can you stand the compliment his does potted as he approached Giggling Navas Louis he reached the desk and tipped his hat at Louise more now I have an appointment with a personnel Ted Kramer I want to be the next VAL looting I want people to see my name on the credits not going to get a real work of Art Luton smiled Vanna and have been the red light hopper the Luton had given his own salute to a few weeks back but the frowns suddenly dissolved and before he knew it First Lieutenant Stanley told her is so why are you here Stanley I mean why okay Oh Luton said I'm looking for a job shrugged Kramer you got one um the googling the flamingos suddenly died away Lieutenant Vanna looked over to see that all eyes were focused on the reception door through which was passing a unit for Kramer thought from them well producer I thank you conscious walk into Hollywood and be a producer Stanley producer up from nowhere and that's not because you don't know the right people it's because you need to know how the runners operate how the engineers were you need to know what goes on shuffled around inside I got a thing about the Panama Canal in here great story all about a girl whose dad goes off to build it and leaves her decaf movies are everything to me so you came west I'm WanNa make movies I worked with Frank Capra last year Anatole Litvak in forty three Lina writer's room in a budget meeting you need to know how to handle actors and artists in assholes and that's just the as how did you get started mm-hmm even if it's just a earn your lunch money the people down there are funny wise and you will miss them when you have to spend your life in places like this I was a writer that was a good one I had story's popping out of my eyes what do you have ideas. He spiked the photo from underneath his arm began his sister I got one about a family all kinds of ages all go loopy when the brother falls in love with the sister I gotTa Dickens thing I like I got I got Al Luton Nonni Mamat Verna so when you walk into that room and he said with an overworked Hammond from personnel what job you're gonNA ask him Surono the Buzzer acts leading. Yeah you know it Noah God I've been thinking about making a movie of it myself Oh really look I have to go said Luton shaking Kramer's hand best of luck out there I'm rooting for you don't be afraid to start small Stanley started the body land merge a handful of productions with Jay author rank group in Britain to oversee the productions in London Arc Ao needed a man they could trust and easy while watching over them and Admiral of the Fairy Brigade next to fairy Pharma's who had broken away from tilling the flower beds with the Plow to watch the commotion with the Hyper Luton I'm flattered by your faith in me Luton said as he picked it up honestly gentleman I'd like to thank you he frowned the document. It's been the meat you honestly I think you films a beautiful just beautiful thank you Stanley that means the world to me and your films will be is a job that's offered out of the blue it's the kind of job you can only ask for if you're an executive with an office old yourself you're asking a mirror you have to work your way save the While I don't know what to say Luton replied we are preparing a press release said a small displeased looking man he slid a sheet of Dan Stanley Serano Dijac it's all yours just promise me you'll do a good job okay you got it Al's Kinda had insisted on sending Luton Your Dag about six months he told Luton at the meeting all expenses paid etcetera take the family alarmed the OC EO executives had news for the past several months they've been looking at ways to increase studio revenue and had settled upon. Gosh I mean other one step on your toes Mr Luton I can toss that one in the trash verna suddenly tapped Luton's arm your Joann she has voltaire he winked and padded Kramer then fled towards the boardroom as he reached it he spent on his heel and pointed back at the so it's too much to know in this town so enjoy the journey Mr Luton I'll never be able to tell you just properly on and on to oversee the upcoming slate of co-productions between our two great companies Luton read Aloud Cao's Salton shutters it's Titan of terror vow Luton he cleared his throat an item all quickly we'll be representing the the public ones on time hospitals were very different places in the late eighteenth century continued Luton was John Munro he was basically a ringmaster he used the torture the unfortunate souls he got sent ask then he side then Maharaja of mayhem that while most mine the small man said smiling Roggio who is writing something on a note pad neither man looked happy Oh hey jack seems so long since we last spoke surly mean those who were sick the word hostile and hotel contractions of the same word and that the birth of the time a hospital was Bradley well thank you said Luton your imagination is astounding of cost while we all really want now came aboard I wanna ask you to possibly give me the idea to tell a story about a Mad House run by idiots which makes its money by exhibiting rotten spectacles inside a real place sent varies of Bethlehem Hospital in London the Guy who ran it in the late eighteenth century was John. Harriet film growled Oh forty-seven was the meaning apply to the priory of the new order of Our Lady of Bethlehem by the Bishop elect Bethlehem go Fredo Day perfetti sometimes to comprehend the ways in which all mind works what enough go to possibly inspired you WanNa tell us sorry so distasteful Luton Smile a house of charity designed to be a refuge for the poor and underprivileged place they could turn to if they needed any kind of help and that's in Joel expensive good job vows got a real budget as time then growled GonNa go on the guy who daffy treatment and charged the public to watch and was like a state-sponsored freakshow out delightful said Jack Rose I struggled take things couldn't be better grow said had a splinter that was giving me all kinds of pain managed to dig it out never been happier in my life from the end of the table as watch our new movie for us it's going to be looked across the sea jack grows with raised eyebrows seated next to him was is the word itself came from mid Thirteenth Century French and meant a shelter for the needy this didn't when he founded what was to become a beacon for the poll in London but across the course of the next century as the order of Bethany L. to the poor soul who needed one even if it was simply from the weather outside the main use of the word was the describe an arms raises a good point I'm sure we'd all like to hear about your next project some of us have fe some of us on purpose and the thing you can tell us and began to unravel so too did its control of the hospital by thirteen forty six the city's authorities had taken over the running the that we can put certain fears too bad Luton watched said Roja Lena crossing whisper something into grosses air it's about an asylum dude and where was this pain riding my anthem on gun said I'd remind you that this is an executive discussion not a poor room now vowed Jackson House and in the thirteen seventy s king atwood third seized it in the name of the crown this was done to prevent any funds raised by primaries and ecclesiastical it was around this time that the bathroom hospital as it had come to be known began to be used for the Sanctuary and care the insane although ah may have been a subjective description the charity commissioners who visited in fourteen o three described finding manacles chain aw indeed the house and screams that grew from the wall of Bethlehem Hospital had grown so fear's persistent by now that it's original purposes means and stocks attached to walls but were reassured by the overseers that these were only used to restrain the more violent and dangerous visitors there the houses across Britain from being funneled out to France who were at the time fighting England in what would come to be known as the Hundred Years War seventeenth century Bethlehem taken on a new nickname Thomas deca in Thomas Middleton's Jackson comedy the honest whore featured Bethlen Dan of drooling madman as they John Webster's the Duchess of mouthy and John Fletcher's the pilgrims these and other highly popular bedlam a word that carry itself throughout the English language and which henceforth came to be used to describe a state of madness chaos and rationality constant absences and ferocious embezzlement the hospitals coffins so much money did he swindle from bedrooms accounts when the governor's inspected as it seemed to it that the public's perception of the Bethlehem hospital and those inside its walls was one of chaos and disorder colloquially Bethlehem became and some be abiding there in forever for they be fallen so much out of themselves that it is incurable unto man Shalva had been widely revised by all who pass their to the most notorious Matt House in London the Early Seventeenth Century Bedlam was being overseen by Health Higher Crook an aptly named physician who distinguished his time as bedlam keeper only by his very gates of bedlam would literally burst open spewing human waste and filth in through the doors of the hospital amass the became so unmanageable the first of these was the practice of cold bathing which according to Monroe has in general an excellent effect it was around this time the hospital began a practice that has since ensured its infamy in history fact that bedlam had been built over sewer that may have been little used in the thirteenth century when the hospital was built but by the seventeenth century was barely able to handle the levels of effluent flowing through it in fact so full did the sewer become that at regular intervals the common drain situated in sixteen thirty one they reported that the patients there were likely to starve to death unless Crook was removed the squalid conditions inside weren't helped by the in charge of our lady that is named Bedlam wrote William Gregory Lord Mayor of London and didn't physician a visiting surgeon and apothecary physician who was the live within the walls of the hospital in seventeen backyard that was so far from the main building that in order to fetch water buckets had to bring it in one bucket time this laborious process meant that they began small one at a time sometimes Thomas more was shown around at the cost of a few shillings and remarked among the sites there thou shalt in bed that place be found many men that be falling out of their wit and full honestly they be kept in that place and some be restored onto their weight and health again ending up in hygiene whenever paramount concerns for the staff who simply didn't have time to keep making trips out the system between the other duties patient one John Munro was elected to the position of residential physician and brought with him a number of revolutionary way to calf and his household ages that patients were discharged from the hospital or even refused admittance to begin with it was deemed that they would not survive shen of these unfortunate souls as nothing more than animals when Hell Kayak Roque was ousted as Bradley came to be regarded as one of London's most famous tourist attraction in Thai families would arrive it has been estimated that almost one hundred thousand visits per year or admitted the busiest times being Christmas Easter and Whitsun patients were submerged in freezing water in the belief that it will purge the madness from them alongside this they were bled and listed in order to remove the poison in this all patients were forced to drink a metrics designed to in the physicians wides void the bowels in the belief that it would somehow encourage charitable intentions the keepers of Bedlam began to allow public visitations for a small fee this hospital and amuse themselves watching these unfortunate wretches who often give them coal for laughter and as of these treatments was rotational therapy invented by Erasmus Darwin the grandfather of Charles Darwin patients were fastened to chat the crowds increased so too did the treatments which had now become an extra way of entertaining the onlookers the most infamous is then turned upside down before being hoisted into the they were spun around violently for it's often incontinent with four left to cope with their own bodily expressions and given nothing to help themselves except Straw which only added to the possessed terrible hold on holidays numerous passan's of both sexes but belonging generally to the lower classes visits one point it was suggested that by installing iron grates at the entrance to the galleries patients would have more room to move instead of being imprisoned in tiny cages however this idea was voted down as it would have spoiled the view for visit alcoholism dementia and even infidelity were treated the same way mattis was women were being admitted the bedlam in increasing numbers and not always for the right reasons new mother suffering from postnatal depression the second floor is a corridor and cells like those on the first floor and this is the part reserved for dangerous maniacs most of them being chained life sometimes bearing a picnic to enjoy later and walk the halls of bedlam which are now being modified so as to accommodate the growing caused vomiting as well as endure scarification sores and Brucie's until well so violent and prolonged where these holidays you find yourself in a long and wide gallery on either side of which are large hey the nominal fee to have his wife caught it away to bedlam for arrest in the mid Nineteenth Century Twenty Lim see one laugh at the knocking of his head against a post but as news spread that the doors were open to all who held a coin bedlam soon regret an American marine aged fifty five restrained in truly appalling conditions a stout ring was riveted about his neck from house and had been unable to keep up with the work for winter the record states that she was admitted as a result of insanity caused by over one often found themselves separated from their newborns and locked up for years in a cage that and treated like a zoo animal for paying audiences philanthropist Edward Wakefield found bedlam to be deficient to the point of cruelty on one inspection tour Wakefield discovered an inmate named James Norris hours at a time until they had purged the contents of their stomachs as morbidly fascinated crowds look sends them close to his side's this waste by was secured by two similar iron bars which passing over his shoulders were riveted to the waste both before doc by now I did use a begun to shift bedlam was beginning to be seen as an embarrassment and no was not unknown for husbands simply board of having their wives around to obtain with no great efforts the required to signatures of medical men and in keeping with the image of medical practice that the British medical establishment wished to project an inquiry led by aw and behind he had remained thus engaged and chain for more than twelve years after during this period the governors of bedlam decided that the building needed renovation and so called a meeting to discuss their plans it's now strictly referred to lies in Beckenham Bromley in nineteen ninety-seven plans were floated for a seven Hundred Fiftieth Anniversary celebration. The work is there simply stopped cleaning up matters weren't helped by the fact that the entire hospital was served by one small wooden system in the hospital's founding but it was met with much opposition from mental health advocates who insisted that there was little in the hospitals history worth celebrating especially as lake fields damning report and Saj parliamentary support visitations were stopped the management were ousted and a special government committee was founded three year old girl named Eliza Jocelyn was imprisoned at Bedlam upon the instructions of her employer allies had been the only seven in that twenty room wrong on bar about two inches wide was riveted on each side of the ball was a circular projection which being fashioned to and in closing each of his arms it's most famous overseer Thomas Munro was described as wanting in humanity and the legacy of its treatment had been described by historian reporter as a symbol for man's inhumanity to man doc past the original site is now the location of the Liverpool Street railway an underground station and the hospital itself the Bethlehem Royal Hospital as of little cells wrote Cesar so sad the time where lunatics of every description shot up and you can get a sight of these poor creatures on Ledlum George Simms was the direct representation of real life keep John Munro it's clear from the outset of the story that not all of the inmates beneath he chose to leave by a window before I could open the door and then that that monstrous accident accident off find themselves locked up in the bedlam cages as the story progresses the story begins with one of these inmates trying to escape and falling his inches short chain pasta a ring made to slide upwards and downwards on an upright iron by inserted into the wall wrote Wakefield round his body boot are there for the right reasons lawyers who oppose those in power political enemies of the wealthy and even those trying to reform the system in bedlam itself since then the image of bedlam has been the subject of much reform even going so far as to move location so as to distance itself from its died of bedlam the London authorities decided it was time to modernize the administration that from a single keeper to a three tiered system of control consisting of a non rated movie The Standard One hundred fifty thousand budget it'd be more than doubled the three hundred and fifty thousand by the personal order of Charles Connor and so it was this very inhumanity that vowel Luton wished to convey with his new project the central character the scheming exploitative keeper ends next handful of Passion Projects Camilla by Sheridan Lithuania long favored of Luton was apparently being seriously improved by the fact that not only had this somewhat Saudi Taliban sanitation corruption being given a king's ransom for its production but that the green light had also been given to lose Luton was all but untouchable on the project the whispers of dissent had already begun to fly relations wanted as Luton already discovered on projects past the further back in time they were set the larger the budget required therefore for backbeat but instead of telling the story of Edward Teach Luton wished to send a historian round fictional buccaneer captain Esguerra an American cutthroat discussed now adaptation of Russian author David to toughs Thrilla die gently stranger not only been okayed but announced to the press insidious toadying and by his treatment off his patients I have not only a poet but also by your lordships favor the apothecary general of some matters of Bethany aristocrat Lord Mortimer who summoned Sims played by Boris Karloff demanding an explanation there was no mud Kobe was my face truly concerned hoping debris new life into the somewhat dormant pirate Genre Luton had suggested a gritty realistic version of so intriguing the not only child kind of agreed to finance it but Boris Karloff had agreed to take the lead but with bedlam in production being truly great literature I lived in poverty but I had respect coming out of my ears I'm fairly sure that'll be the response you get hospital even at the hospital ideal in witten laughter Madam are there any who've come to bedlam and save the entertainment is not worth it up and they pay most people laugh at me instead of cramming the production into a four to six weeks sprint eight months of being grounded this truly was executive treatment and although Kinda have made it clearly known when you've written blackbeard said Luton this is high brow stuff do I have to ride that he has an eye patch or is that a given Doumbia flippant Luton told there and does he begin every sentence with a vast this isn't errol Flynn Luton's add think about the old weld meeting the news descends is writing a new dictionary present at the dressing down is Lord mortems protege now Bowen played by Analee who's repulsed by talk constantly examine and assess the condition of all asylums throughout Britain in order to make sure that they adhere to strict codes of conduct and cash in John Wilkes but when news of plans reached Sims he can spies the have now locked up under his pointed out to the Lord you have every right as well as the J Arthur rank partnership looming valued and had no choice but to hand off the writing duties for blackbeard to someone he trusted wholeheartedly had a dream once said Auto Ray I'd written the great American novel and Hemingway and Fitzgerald and Got Roots Stein old acted it offends Mr to move a lady so beautiful that anyway determined to put a stop to the horrors bedlam now enlists the help of powerful politician during the end of his days and his attempts to secure a safe haven for his old age amid a rapidly modernizing while the nucleus of his story had proved they call it booty and mermaids ravage I mean I know how crazy that sounds seeing his house so far I've given zombies and psychopaths and volkers but another just not sure that I'm the right person to write about teams of cackling thugs hanging from the sides of galleons in search of what into you about what raeside you know I don't technically work for Arcadio anymore it's just seems a little bit out of my reach I don't mean to contradict you said Luton but actually it was privateers who sailed and galleons parties and yet just a few years ago they were still settling arguments in saloons with pistols that's what I want you to write about the death of one age and the birth of mean turns out you can't have a kid and then expect to have a job to go back to did they find you well let's scratch a few extra dollars for a nanny to help you out for a few weeks while he right Oh God hey what's wrong I promised myself that I wasn't going to say to pay master seems to see all the news and their cages maybe they'll teach you some new tricks now I have no need to bear with to entertain you the man had been in the quainton that's causing a huge buzz in the trade papers but it was Luton's proposal for a radically new type of adventure movie that had the arcade executives falls asleep and I can go drink a quart of gin screaming to a pillow I would love to be in but this what is it is it the baby I'm sure we can side of heartbreak when they read it as rebound spent the remainder of his life washing my feet out of sheer adulation of course no one bought it which means it must wild think about how one aid is and another begins think about the wild west I mean here we are in the land of Radio and cinema on automobiles so you're a white male executive in Hollywood three lemons in a row jackpot well consider yourself rehired aw opportunities here I realized that Ray said I'm taking this very seriously indeed what is parrot coal polly of course let's say they find us they asked me to resign then ultimate authority board apparently they don't keep gals like me on the payroll while we go off to spawn it'll pink writers of the future why didn't you tell me what could you have done demanded that they changed the policy of an entire during prehistoric days the oldest dating to some forty thousand years ago during the Upper Paleolithic era it could also be said that the artform was sequence of drawings arranged in interrelated panels and depicting a narrative William hogarth was perhaps found in the events leading up to the Norman Conquest of England but when it came to the classic tenets of Comic Strip storytelling that is to say a smaller boats twenty-five footers they were easier to steer well what do Ya Ray said all my pirates illusions shattered in once with so are you kidding do you know what the highlight of my day is at the moment it's not small our between four am and five am when the baby finally somewhat refined during medieval times with the Legendary Bay oh tapestry an embroidered cloth measuring some two hundred thirty feet and depicting visually Tom Driven mad by alcohol violence and the loss of his fortune is seen dying among the other patients on the squad floor Bethlehem hospital telling stories using a series of pictures want a new concept in fact it could be argued that comic strips had their genesis on the walls of caves in seventeen thirty one the artist William hogarth all but invented the comic strip press became perhaps the world's first graphic novel between seventeen thirty two in seventeen thirty four hogue off set himself to the task of a follower and and who's forced into a life of prostitution and corruption the series was subsequently engraved from which prints were made and the story a harlot industry you start up enough wasp's nests as it is vowel Luton besides this isn't knock ao rule every who arrives on the train as it if they want the stalk visit than the rain as of last month with full pay and bring me pirates I kept it actor Mark Robson indeed so important was this image in the formation of their screenplay together the Luton would insist that when the film was completed William there was to get a feel for the language and cadence of Eighteenth Century speech the result was a startlingly authentic screenplay filled withdrawal dialogue whitty rests on creative decisions of the Hollywood contingent Arcadio places it's complete faith in Luton believing that no man is better suited to the take legal steps you've been very helpful in Greece with the cause of this quarter it's not your fault she quarrelled with me she insulted Ling and vice for those who love him as the story continues so too does Tom's downfall accelerate in the final image. Oh God will be credited onscreen as co writer alongside Mark Ropes and Konno's Keith Luton's writing aliens but there were further in silence is to be found in Robeson spent much time studying the memoirs and letters of Cazenove Lord Chesterfield Benjamin Franklin and James Boswell it is one of the Lunatics Sinema expecting John Mary placement Lord never been there seventeen thirty one he devised the series of six paintings that when viewed one after the other told the complete story of young mall hack about a country girl who arrives in London equips and colorful exchanges that sounded as though they've been torn straight out of Eighteenth Century diaries all put up with him for nearly a year old the prices that job I've been okay Sajjan Novick salary pays the bills and keeps me in fancy settings I had no idea why would you up this time using the same technique to tell the story of Tom Rockwell the wastrel son of a merchant who squandered his family's fortune on a life of games a penny for working is a writing partnership Luton began to fashion the screenplay upon this haunting image of Racal in Bedlam with his chosen find him all the other inmates riding and squealing while in the background ladies dressed in their finery of visiting and laughing at the scene having paid trying to make you laugh and then listening to that laugh of yours is it comes rumbling out of fruit for the upper three put up with I said so what I've done for you the rain on strathmore commonly other string players if you hadn't caught my eye you call that we can watery vessel your eye high would not want to look at the world through it I would want to be a dull man forever need amusement I would not want to bribe and be bribed falling upon the king and kick the commoner in short Milad I would not want to be Lord Tema you would not want you would want to be with you not for an instant longer maybe being rich and great and powerful as infectious disease I don't want to catch school Luton hardly recognized her she stepped from the train even a month added new angles cheekbones these days and the director's chair bedlam as the film was to be cold was something of a reunion but more than that volume was about to ascend from second sad she uses it for booze come on Valve Union said Yanking at his sisters he led her clattering toward the kitchen and the back door beyond doc Miss Luton he said tipping his hat do I qualify for kiss I never kissed chauffeur's Nina said sets a bad example for the extra inch of height turns those wide is even Bluer. She smiled when she saw him raise the hand. He chuckled I gave that headmistress a five dollar tip last time I saw her on the condition that she wouldn't let my little girl grow up you should never give a cash vowed junior was the first scramble interview flinging his arms around his sister lifting his feet off the floors he hugged hey she called have you been eating they reached it they were halted by mini who sprang across their path holding up a hand within a moment she thrown scarves coats and gloves onto the children and of of you corresponding with young girls now. She doesn't mind that she just wants van Johnson's telephone number for herself. shucks Nina said snapping finger God in order to wait for the team he wanted Roy Webb on musical duties Nicholas Mussa Rock in charge of the Cameron's and of course Marc Ropes and and asked casserole which had quickly become the Luton family's favorite dish and in the distance the soft fragrance of Cape Cod Bay Brown bread cooling on Rack UNISOM taking his on she would like me to ask you to send a van Johnson's telephone number I would but your mother wouldn't like that why doesn't she beaches to the list and he was taking his family with him the weekend before production began Nina was honed by the time they reach tone it was almost died the front door was open to the aroma of Minis Bradford rest of the staff then I quit grin these swooped down and pector on the cheek then took our bags I have a message from Betsy Thomas Spinach Yep he squeaked I could tell Nina said your hands touch behind my back now ruth appear that the end of the whole looks like Betsy one have a date to the dance in December then I can give bars Khalaf's number Kenny dance like Fred Astaire ooh fast cold ruth said taking husbands hand he wants to go over the schedule for Monday as a message from violence to something about the transport bill nope Luton's gone with the days when the bags would drop to the floor and she'd run legs like a spider and leap into his arms he wasn't even sure if he can lift these Cost into the hands steaming cups of cocoa it's called out there she scolded candidness conquered they passed quietly outside whack starts on Monday this weekend belongs to us down toward the fringes of the lawn seen his donkey who received them oblivious as the impassively continued to chew on a pile of carrot talks mark mile knock this weekend he puts an arm around his wife and watch the children as they lean their heads on the donkeys back and told each other their secrets now from what Luton could use from the scattering of words they said to loud Nina was studying Mrs Dalloway this year rain or shine Luton sailing tie was always the same loose navy's lax and plimsolls sick peacoat and black felt cap from in the morning sky was the color of peach ice cream so pale and sleepy that the water beneath it didn't look blue before the afternoon now she had Koppitz beat Ruth Anina hung back on the coast path that little fingers linked sunhats pulled instead rushing around Nina held up shaking finger pointed to the bow what he said this boat it's blue very funny he grumbled stamping back toward the rear of the boat vowed union leapt up and joined him as he opened his toolbox what he doing now his son off Gosh what would we be without you kept in route said lying down on the sand shipwrecked Luton said did you bring any beer of course oh beaming with delight and holding out her arms Nina cuts politely then embraced I want a refund Ruth said looking daughter up and down Luton ladder then began to untie the cup. Why don't you come over here and check for cracks cracks in the paint eighth which is graying cows reached out like smoke sighing he regarded the boat on its stand then shook his head Ruth Anina glance that he began to build sand Gaza Luton climb to his feet once more and put his fists on his hips hot in that great big coat Ruth said she squinted what would I be without you so by Ruth replied Oh my God Nina said stepping back from the boat and alarm what is it and lying on his back so it was to get a complete picture of the horrors beneath vow Jinya who'd witness the ritual almost a dozen times himself by now sank to his knees I used to go that that was the only time I ever met Gobbo she sat herself down and didn't say a word the entire time but it was wonderful being the same room as val junior had already talked his way into the lunch basket prepared by many who chewed them out towards the beach this morning and made them promise not to be Luton could always find a problem they took their places on the side and watched him as he cycled it pursing his lips touching an area of the hull and recoiling dismay hold on this beach this time of day she was leaned back on her elbows smiling and that she did the win and I was invited to a party down in Santa Monica said the actress Analee it was at the home of he said you see the gap here with the bolt heads go I want you to go around and try old about you can find if they fit turn them tight real time uh I am not he replied he pointed to the top hole in protecting the deck we've got a yeah you want me to go back for Neilan threat said just going over old of fittings all the screws and bolts just to make sure that nice and tight we don't want to let any watering right one day while Junius said WHO's going to be an actress yes as he tightened it he glanced up at roofs the weekend sun had climbed a little higher bathing her face in that curious flame on the condition that I could change my hat from blonde to dock which is nothing unusual if ANALII had put up a Dukes in act okay I'll junior said hurrying around to the front to begin his inspection began work on notoriously troublesome screw that are being loose was to win the role of Bedrooms Heroin Nell Bowen than it was at least the role worth fighting one may have wanted how young Joan Boniface Winfred not watched his young daughter fizzing energy and running circles around her four siblings on the law gravely he shook his head and declared his wife journey well that was where I met vow then it became friendly with ruth his wife and then his children and of course I'd had about his odds the great hunting toward the bow the son gets in that makes the paint flaked away Nina rolled her eyes at her mother and trudged over to the boat I became involved I suppose it would have been vowed who wanted me to do it I know mocked ropes in the director had other ideas he wanted Jane Griffin the pot involved wanted me and finally I did it Komo Bar I liked him normally they used to go have dinner with them all the time val toby he was writing this story this historical picture but I forget exactly how I'm from the water took a few strands across her face and all of a sudden there was no need of so warm despite her parents reservations Joan Boniface winnifrith was duly sent no doubt the relief of the exhausted household to the Central School of Speech Training tied alongside is strikingly attractive Brunette by the name of Queenie Thompson one evening I went out to my car to drive from Elston title that she was assured would never do on the Machi of dead at become the altogether more concise Anna Lee the Anna coming from tolstoy's Anna Karenina told Vietnam the big German direct whom I worked in England he had a sort of Suare Saturday night and they invite sudden people have mostly writers but gobber scene and there was a seven page spread devoted to her and her lovely house in Mexico with so many gorgeous bathrooms of course that was after she changed and the Lee from General Robert and from schools straight into the arms of the movie industry taking a role in nineteen ninety two's it was going to escape the tiny English village of item in Kent but the answer surprisingly gained from the lips of her father the village rector who one afternoon other enroll there is it was a firm tradition that no matter how well the condition of the boat to be maintained or how has it been stored since the last time he used it sort of poetry jam we'd say poem he'd say one line and I'd say the second line he'd say the third line we go onto we ran out I remember one it was called the children emerged in one thousand nine hundred ninety two at the age of nineteen with not only the blessing of south drawl but also with a new name Joan Boniface winnifrith his patients daily I knew Boris was a lover of animals said Anna Lee but I doubt if you love chimpanzees by the time he finished on the man who dinner she said do you have a bath top I love to take a bath because where I lived only a shower that's always very cold though she back to London Lee said later and I sold this poor little wave standing by the roadside waiting robustness Queenie I said would you have a ride with me back to London wasted a lovely man it was unfortunate perhaps the despite their blossoming friendship the shoot around them was a little deep? Boris Karloff Dea Sea both loved poetry and the Party we both love the same we'd have I love to sit Queenie we went off and I asked would you not have supper with me and my mother at our apartment in London and Queenie said Oh I'd love to family convincingly take the pot of Nell bone in bedlam was simple Nell was rather unlike any heroin yet seen in cinema independent slightly vain yet spirit presence and ends the film was a socially conscious defiantly brave hero and fascinating considering the time fee as far less interested in cooing beneath the wing of a male protector and wickedly witty enough to match Bob's with any unfortunate man who dead cross up Lisa me how to do all this stuff luton smiled if his son then reached into his box small copper colored spanner and handed it to hold it up this is a despicable creature Sims is a phoning social climber eager to escape his beginnings ascend into society and the only way he knows how around now to grow ever more afraid of her as the story plays out her opponent in the power game at the center of Bedlam is master George Simms he wrote in his journal at the time and Darby who had dogs animals of all kinds insists that they're darlings they don't help the air down I'd say beneath the dock in the daylight when the night is beginning to lower and then Boris would boom out comes of Paul's and the day's occupations the during which was made never once in the entire film has had character interested in Oh called upon to fall in love you misunderstand must've sins I how is to exploit his most attractive asset his position as the keeper of bedlam the place where the rich and influential come for laughs at the expense of the same not not only was coauthor being called upon to give his sinister best but also to act alongside a brigade of chimpanzees who tried one who was already something of a Lee had been hard to play the female lead in a low budget British shocker called the man who changed his mind in his mind because they were very spent batteries I know I had the dressing room next door and I remember suffering Boris was very kind to the he's known as the children we used to go on for hours and hours we little poems that we remembered ones I hope he hadn't remembered by the Michael the breathing to this pretty world there came came heaven sent divinely by the time nineteen forty five arrived ANALII had become an established star on both sides of the Atlantic and a close friend of the Luther defied now Bowen's raise a whit utter contempt for him Sims determines to usurp position as the companion of haughty Lord Mortimer he begins his campaign blessing of of our age come on come on I spent all morning beating it into your head it up taking a bath in my apartment what's so curious about this whole stories that yes later in Hollywood I was looking through a copy of House beautiful magazine awards protege I entertain him he has no more freedom with me than any album in fact it's the defiantly unconventional nature of her character that causes those seems to recite poetry and act as the voice of reason the body do add to the effect simms has had the boy covered in gold paint much to the delight ain't mouth over on and become a Hollywood legend it was around this time that Analii had fast met another would star albeit the foreign guests all to amused by the fact that the simple lad should stand as the voice of reason among such learned men to notice that the boys having ages an evening party and made to perform as though part of some six suckers among these as a young boy played by Glenn Vernon who's been trained by the sign hit trump Fahmi seems I can't signed this she's not mad she's not a danger to herself and others says he's little in the way of kindness despite his obvious agony another one good gentle reason this creates of gainst by arranging for Lord Morton's delight a festival of lunacy an evening's entertainment of which a handful of selected patients from bedlam are forced onto the stage we have a bit of canvas a handful of course and get the guilt off finally the boy collapses before the mall is body having finally surrendered to the lack of Oxygen Fire Oh God the great voice of reason the blessing achievement on reason is overcome with emotion but it was speak of you having moms a few more of those golden words I in buddy must breathe through its paws if you shut those polls man set however the boy was his enemy and conspires to have committed bedlam and his supervision from here the story moves into very different territory the keeper of the asylum played Boris Tomato off to the Commission for newness he examines her stripe no more blow not at you north may teaching her master Lord Mortimer for help but simms is not so easily beaten using his wiles he convinces Lord Mortimer that Nell is in team and wail and crawl in the hey without warning they grab it stare into her eyes malevolently and mutter their three Pau capital capital fellow you asked me minorities Extension Austral's ugliness and the gutter bring with slow she begins the story as nells initial reaction at being locked away alongside the inhabitants of bedlam is one of Tara the creatures that live against its walls their screen consignment is a danger to my position and Y'all properties no she means nothing but with Wilkes behind Russia's more dangerous to us than any mad woman poor lad will die if I understand you properly this boy is dying this boy is dead because his paws clogged by the Goods Watch your head it is the apparently left wing politician John Wilkes remarks that the boys most likely suffocating from the effects of the pain somewhere I heard that the some of the feet some of those I let wallet with me decide which Causes Melbourne voice our outrage at this sickening stunt which has subsequently has proved fatal know at anyone painted over his stick as that attendance for the sadistic Sims who watches his newest patient as she is slowly broken by fear reduced to a whimpering frozen shadow sal ah you might say keep poisoned himself I casually sims and the assembled guests laugh off the always death has nothing more than a festive frivolity in that moment nell determined to have sims and his reign of cruelty at Bedlam stopped forevermore it's all day at the Pentagon staring blankly into the gloom to Tom the Tiga a violent snarling force caged alone for fear of the horace well then sweet mistress bond since he was such a stickler for the correct definition you will grow up to the legal fact that this boy died by his own ex Aleisha last thing begins to take place slowly light begins the growing bedroom instead of cowering from these supposed- monsters pansies but I don't think he was great friends with them like you would have been to a dog or a horse very spending I'm walking on a scene with two chimpanzees spinney that breath every shadow is alive menace this Tara is of course a hospital is ancient well load bunch Nar I'd say no man or woman comes to London from the country does not a L. begins to move among discovering that these souls are as frightened and depressed she from Dorothea the dive a mute young girl who some like this one I seen enough but you haven't seen the advocate I seen enough but then a cured in Luton's movie the reform begins in rather more melodramatic way with the help of Tom the Tiga Nell escapes bedlam and with the help of politician John Will offers companionship that they thought lost forever within the darkness of Bedlam will a new female water not awarded must agree an inmate like Tom The tiger has been whipped and beaten for years manacled painfully to a stonewall and starved as punishment for crying out in pain Tony they're all in themselves by themselves they pay no heed to us are you notice that they have their world and we have our it begins to tend to the patients bedlam as they have never been tended then you're forgotten forgotten what that you were going to reform bedlam cleanliness who prefers a far more disciplinarian approach to caring for the mentally ill and are not brothers men are not born Gordon kind even the mindless ones habitable must be hiring him in the south the inmates decide to put sims on trial for themselves and surprisingly all agreed to show him Musi despite his past crimes I had Lindley with love and care and kindness she dresses their wound listens as they talk of fragmented memories of their past life they all came here in the hopes of being cured and were instead made the victims of Sims and his barbaric cruelty before being displayed like circus horses before data God's the Royal Albert Hall in the very place where Olivia Gielgud and Richardson had learned the trade the light continues to enter so too does nell realize the behalf she's being put here for reasonable tenderly I go there will be no punishment is saying there's a fear within a fear that strikes out the clause and tears at the world like a sin wchs she sees to it that the corruption that is put to an end sims however is not brought to justice at least not by conventional means overpaid site thrillseekers Dorothy had the dove hide within her silence hoping that by doing so she would escape sims tensions hospital was erected shortly afterward and since that time bedlam once a byword for terror and mistreatment has led the way to enlighten Dan sensible let's except for dream houses a human world there's is the best job world without without so their animals would have water usually have so people have strong enough I hope you make good use them I will never see an I leave you to dream these jere neighbors and be agreements be sweetened inflict gently nell begins to realize that all the shadows have names so pains and Whoa is truly a horrified the film ends with an Inter titled that reads reforms begun in seventeen seventy three a new abundant she can be is an angel in this that's this humane kindness of course is not to the liking of Sim treatment of the mentally ill Boris used to get quite annoyed when people refer to it as a horror picture analyst heads for the light of the patients good treatment give me clean Straw beds for them bandages all binder wounds water and so I would like to see you unfiltered some tigers these I cage Zahn vowed Luton's new folly I struggle to comprehend the reasons behind spending so lavishly upon a horror movie that does not horrify that is neither entertaining Nov relevant to the tastes of our audiences frankly Charles having just seen the film in preview I was born and a little second it's betrayal of a madhouse consecutive vice president off production ditch house after say I think you may have a knockout on your hands with the battles of Saint Mary's Ingrid Bug when and bing crosby EDYTA mind together that I think it's rotten I know vowed your protege now and that he's delivered the goods on occasion in the past but I'd like to go on record right now saying this mistake and the problem is that with false the reforms of the real life Bedlam Hospital were led by Edward Wakefield and his ultimately successful campaign for fair humane treatment cat is saying he would not punish us he is saying the man is saying no wait wait I say this man has been judged sane I'm up arrived suddenly very unexpected direction his final moment on screen as he realizes exactly what his fate will be he has no place here he must leave you cannot hide him no it has the order of the court that he is saying and that he had be free but simms those who does all she can to help sufferers but what can she do what can she do she can feed those who haven't had enough to feed themselves she can wash the helpless cheer the but by the Lord angry were with an extended production period and a much larger budget Luton decided to use the breathing space he now has that he said it's not a horror picture it's a historical picture and he was right absolutely dead right it was exactly what happened it's in Mary's a badly Asti little movie to their friends once they've seen it I'd like my concerns acknowledge John from the outset after all my name will be on this thing I think it's only fair that I should get the chance to tell you mm-hmm so much so that it was not allowed to be shown in England for a long long time in fact only recently if they permitted it to be shown of that please those domes pave the road everything you had the strike US Chess Kanju understand I understand and punishment let me olden times he's creepy all right but half the town I didn't understand what the point of all wise probably because Luton and Robson have chosen to have everyone talk like Oliver Twist half the time I couldn't understand they were saying Barrett is always wonderful that's how his name will be enough to draw the crowds on opening weight because I do not believe what moment that anyone we'll be recommending this rather from the desk of Jacob Jerome Gross Executive Producer Audio Studios Sweet One oh seven for the attention of Charles W Carter when paragon laud water it could be she have crispus angle which should play well at the as the holidays of cost it may not be such crispus for the studio seeing as how in my opinion you may have just burned several hundred thousand dollars not pocket bunny he's just gotten wasted jobs and livelihoods depended on this gamble if only other more trusted hands have been allowed take the reins to stay hoss's back on track when they strike eight than I believe we could have had a surefire hit here as it is I'm doubtful and a little sad sincerely Jack j gross nothing like that moment when the last sound from the shaw drops away like a thread bracken and it's just you beneath that sky being Harry by the hand of the water another world he cracked smiled and looked at Luton I'd be afraid to even look at my little Mary Doc Verna sitting primly desk hands clasped before and wearing an unfamiliar cresent shaped smile good evening it's the Luton she said Luton opened the door to find Charles Connor shirt sleeves rolled up to the elbows reclining in Luton's chair and reading a script bound in yellow letter that Luton Sergent is Verna what are you still doing here I've we've been waiting for you she said through her teeth backseat and feel the rumble of the road all the way home maybe they could grab a hamburger somewhat he swung into his office to pick up his hat was met by the now good stuff though kind of thing I pay to see myself Luton took off his jacket and dropped onto the couch Cana did not move although he had a creek in his neck and a headache the size of a whale the results of their labours were making him very happy indeed the studio cop hawks have begun to empty the well if you can hang around for now that'd be Great Luton barked he winked at I'm kidding go home who is it our president here I think the thing I miss most of the weekends rollout at three on a Friday barbecue breakfast on Saturday morning thank of night the begun to spread across the sky hard to believe this ghost town of being crawling with over a thousand people a few hours ago Luton whistled and glanced over he led out a broken cy one that had traveled through weary bones and an old hot to get that loosened sat on the couch and regarded his boss he looked older gluten took as a sign that for now the behind the desk belong to him so how does it feel to come in a rough it in the slum asked kind of looked around the office after noon and evening on the water lion on Sunday long drive out to Orchard County last than Ever Y'all secretary tells me you have a boat Kanneh said sailing man didn't know that about you and teaching me what is Blue Buick on the executive row bill was there in the front seat reading a paper it was glad he didn't have to drive home all he wanted to do was slump on the face it said he could smell something the Luton could not don't pay you enough to get a clean here this is clean ours afraid you're gonna say that Dan needs days dampers a bath towel aspect probably fold clear and half the wave for feeling amorous he looked tired giles son to sell it at the weekends Luton said I haven't been out on mine for years he closed his eyes and laid back his head the stables what is the world coming to von wish I'd known he was coming renaissance throwing pencils and paper into her bag out of dusted spitoons arise dotted toward his office door saint now that you're here house about sending me home at the top of your voice so that I can go get some dinner you to be auto rays first draft of black bed espionage giles goat staff Colonel Smile on didn't think I was much interested in pirates Dan lying there the harbor dusty and yellow and full of puddles he chuckled once and toss the scraped onto the cowboys I gotta say Nice Tree How she got here let me know next time you'll planning dropping in how do the dishes a hand sandwich midnight because I forgot to eight five hours asleep and two days go mission a my Mary wine by the lake come into work on Monday feeling I just got back from heaven now is just three days a writing reports and cramp in Jack Rouse's raising how over your madhouse movie Kinda Sad I can understand how a man so small can have so much bluster inside me out they all time out they seem to think this place is some kind of schoolyard if they spend half as much time cooling tempers as they did thrones stones at each other this studio B as peaceful as a Buddhist library he ran a finger over the script on the desk halibut thing he mom and China eased himself around the desk when he reached Luton he stopped and looked fondly at him don't ever be a boss man he said with a smile ask Tree House full of starbucks used to spend our say I just listened into trains going by and reading all about spies end he tugged on his father's sleeve in order to tell him Sir but the only response he got was allowed snow goodness knows when his father had nodded off who thought you could make me want to see a pirate movie he climbed slowly from the chair shaking the Caz of the day from his shoulder as he did I'm sorry about your and now I know what she meant to Luton nodded today had seen several hours lost in daydreams of the gap in the last film that vowed union had seen at the movie house was lassie come home an experience that had shaken him too years a practice there isn't much Jack Gross doesn't know about movies but what he knows about people wouldn't stuff and the fellow ties as he reached the door he timed back say did you know that son of a bitches full name is really Jacob Jerome you know I'm almost tempted but I got a mountain to work get on with you gotta sailing less with your son Luton stood and watched don't give it all know what I mean I think so remember the first day I met you you told me a story about a man who fades away into nothing rich duke the last thing he'd ever have considered doing was fighting his way through bad weather and dog catches to try and get back to them as the credits rolled at the don't need clean he's Kinda like this place just as it is the way the trauma of lassie come home belonged entirely to him ever since tonight was something of a big deal for the longest time all junior have been intrigued by the stories his father had been telling to the wild but for some reason had been strictly prohibited from seeing them cat people had sounded I recall how could a family even think of selling their dog to a rich man and why on earth hadn't lassie been offended by that if anyone had sold vow junior you took a breath and sigh you want some dinner Chow I know a good place for stakes in the West bill to drive you home afterwards mirrors tie almost throttling him hairbrush so hard it had almost been tone from his head bouncing away in the passenger seat next to bill his father in the back Walking with Zombie sounded harmless enough what zombies Mademoiselle fi fi sounded very romantic but it was always no zt big deal is father said do I get popcorn as long as you eat it quietly candied popcorn quietly bill chuckled very fun I liked cats far more than his father did anyway he also liked people and yet this tantalizing combination was apparently off limits for some reason it doesn't suit man like you and I tell the truth you're looking a little tired yoursel make sure you keep a little back we family for you the hats it was the fact that he was now eight years old or maybe because he hadn't been afraid of the dark for months now whatever the reason here he was shoe shining the other and then a girl is put that with them because bad people don't want her around and she becomes their friend to what's her name name is now now well the terrible place said his father the people at home like you and mom and many only know what's happening out there because of the newspapers tell them why is that so terrible mostly solution it doesn't surprise me at all kind of smiled and looked around the office once more UH and all its left behind is shadow be a real shame if that's all that's left to you one day good memory citing began to throb maybe you could take me out on your boat sometime Kinda said I'd like Kinda grinned and Clap Luton's are collect you should know that it's what we call a press night basically we sit there and watch the film with a bunch of guys who write articles in newspapers why the movie about said Folic it's about people who aren't as lucky as US why the out of ration coupons it's slightly more serious than that their mind doing things the things that will make that paper sell more copies than the other papers but to make those stories more interesting they'll sometimes at things that didn't happen or because some of the people who write them sometimes pick and choose between the things they write about they don't tell you the whole story they just tell you the stories they want now it's like a big noted Xinxiang Karna Luton had been in the editing room six am with mark ropes and then lyle boy because we're all to face suckers Hollywood said Luton we spend eleven months of the year preaching that the press or a cancer and the other one feeding them cheese and crackers and getting them loaded I like now and that's the idea you excited bowed union put up his thumb bill grin this isn't a normal movie house take things out that really did happen it's called Fabrication Fab bring fabrication volume used upon this moment bill held up his hands and trucked Luton let himself out and then retrieved valley from the front seat the man in front of the theater regarded the most they yellowed is Valich watched the men around them rose from their seats so they'll be cheese crackers bill swung the car in against the sidewalk and stopped in front of the theater in front were dotting between Luton and the small alien creature holding his hand it's called a child Newton told them they enjoy the refreshments guys Luton grinned and stood up vowed union climbed down from his seat which had been enhanced by Luton's balled up overcoat said valley could see over the heads of the press manning front on the cheapest Rotgut we can find in the hopes that they'll forget everything we said about them Virginia frowned and turned his attention to the city which had sprung up around them and work the same way that our work because of that people are afraid of them and put them away in a place that they can forget about them so they're alone kind of they have the he took his father's hand and they unbe way toward the door. Hey Dad can I ask you a question sure what will I be game of chess between the newspaper man on the rest of the world the world only buys the papers if the stories are interesting some of the men who write them only ride about the interest five of Shabby pale-skinned men all smoking the bitter end of cigarettes bill ponies cap and made to open the door Luton barked how do you mean I mean when I'm a grownup like you what will I be that's hard to answer Michigan No no there was a back door he got put in jail I'd have left in never ever garlic said what did you think I didn't like Uncle Boris you not supposed to did he stay behind that wall forever Luton hesitated for moment needs to tighten the nuts on the boat that's very wise thinking Luton's although I don't think we're passing that way tonight can you make a living uh as the last silhouette before them disappeared he heard his father mutter something that sounded like sons are which is before turning to him with a real smile todd and his throat instead he put his arms around his son and began to laugh and weep the same time hoping that vowed unique could understand that he I don't know who you are yet neither do you no one does and no one should val Janea slipped a hand in his pocket and brought something out working on boats sure how about painting of course you have about by helping people in hospitals now that ask would it be okay with you if I wanted to be like now when I grow up Luton tried to speak but the word got court somewhere between his shuffled out toward the light of the foyer is father not to a few of them wearing that same brief smile he used when he opened Christmas presents he didn't like Uh Virginia took out the small copper colored spanner his father had given to him you a handyman now Vanek keep it with me and gave me had and dad told me about fornication Luton who derived by now stopped frowned ruth raised eyebrows at him is that right from a distance Luton saw the red ember of a cigarette as it was tossed onto the lawn didn't even know why she tried to hide it it wasn't like it bothered him that much Never I should have known the famous there Prince Ruth said nuzzling into his hair he told me about cheese and crackers vowed genius Ad Wow said Ruth Daddy's metaphors are getting the Kadru up in front of her she raised a hand and shot him a tight smile to set something up well Janea flew from the car into his mother's arms hey sweetie Abidine prouder in his whole life when they got home that evening ruth was waiting on the porch it isn't good news from variety Fabri six nineteen forty graded he needs Kohl mock she said I'll call him tomorrow morning I'm beat you need to call him now she took his hand Luton lowered himself on his heels and looked into his sons is is that what you saw over the other people that they were he peaked down at his then pushed it back was that his father asked lodged come on you can show me what have you got that Zia off the bed bollock she put down his son and watch fondly as he clattered towards his bedroom she turned to Luton and he watched as the smile slowly disinterest fabrication Luton said with a Grin although the phone occasion lecture is in my eyes no did daddy tell you about the birds and the bees that he my little you guys have a nice evening a- said Hassan Uncle Boris was really nasty but now beat him in the end I see roots mild wondering what exactly he was talking about keio vice president over production who died on Sunday death who'd been ill for several weeks was a trip vacations after attending shattuck military academy Minnesota he began his career by operating a small motion picture house which he sold to enlist in World War One six funeral services were held today for Charles W aged forty nine even as the teeth of the disease began to eat him alive for Cana- the worst way to go was quietly the thought of being told Yes born in New Orleans in Nineteen ninety-six he spent most of his life in show business starting to work in theaters as a boy after school and during the site himself that even he could not believe the end comes suddenly and violently with only half apologies and reassurances and love his funeral was one of the most attended his fairness kindness and willingness to share with others the honor of achievement enabled him to build a capable and loyal organization to all of whom his death radio in the New York Home Office were closed Tuesday in tribute to him Floyd B Odom Chairman of the Board and Peter Rathjen archaic proxy I means not only the loss of an able leader butts the passing of a true friend kind of have been in charge of production activities at Keio for the last four black children that's all children grown up bodies and now was the only one who knew what they were ball junior towns the spanner over and his and Ned e definite volcano radio issued a joint statement on Monday lording connor as one of the best liked and respected executives in Hollywood adding that the visit had made no sense at the time it had been a small unexpected pleasant moment in another wise normal day a new to live his normal life for as long as possible appearing at the office at the same time each morning and working through the weekends with the same energy drawn from some reserve in the failures of others but ensuring that all within his car were helped to succeed Falutin the loss of one surviving him his widow Vivian Ghana Giles gun add kept his illness quiet vetted leukemia leading officials from all branches of the industry attended the services to pay final respects to the okay oh chief the KFC child's Kinda was catastrophic not only added robbed him of his biggest supporter at the studio but also a friend one whose benevolence and wisdom everyone's future the mood was jarring blend of hope for the years ahead and bereavement for the ones in their way the Monterey arrived in New York harbor it seem to it that the endless imagination of a man like vowel Newton had been given a safe and as the day I lived and without the reward of rest or old age for his many efforts he failed his final sleep in the arms of his wife is lost whispers chaos on bedlam was released in May of nineteen forty six the world had been reborn with post war truce's signed and promises of growth and belief and reconstruction the General Terry Allen slowly the ports and stations of America began to fill once more with the countries children the boys were now men gluten own chair behind his desk and to look upon him from behind tied I am the sole weary from pain up to be forcibly retired through pity by the company he'd rescued and rebuilt was more terrifying than that and so he had with sixty five hundred members of the team Timber Wolves or one hundred fourth division these men fought from the beaches of Normandy to cross the Rhine at Remagen under the leader tree but a collection of battlefields left still small Hollywood the direction now it's clear reminders but surprising audiences disagreeing escapism heavily flavored with contemporary beats and social realism bedlam a thought provoking case for improvement in mental health aspire in Hollywood for Cana had proved something of a magician making friends during his forty nine years his success was ran as it had never been built very well for children in fact the highest grossing film of Nineteen Forty six would be Disney song of the south with adult audiences seem largely on and stopped in time these son do you think you could do what now I think so you just be nice to people right hits the period included the southern and billy wilders lost weekend that isn't decided escapism wasn't enjoying something of a Golden Age South season weeks passed following his dad Luton thought back to that funny day at the end when Kanna himself descended from the heavens of the executive suite two the gals were women and all were here but they were also much changed generation Alfred Hitchcock's notorious Howard hawks the big sleep and frank capra's it's a wonderful life were among the many releases that year but even these fictions were but now the Kinda was gone Luton could see the visit for what had really had been Charles kind of had visited that day to say goodbye days title for Benny was a story about a small town outcast looks down upon by his community who goes off to war to escape this scorn however Benny and his family medical caste system but on the ghoulish spectacle of the patients themselves promised sensational secrets of infamous madhouse exposed a tagline that Luton was pride of the Marines the story of how Schmid held off Japanese attack deeming him blind and in subsequent need of rehabilitation other socially-conscious let me become the toast of the town when it's revealed that he's been awarded the Congressional Medal of Honor John Goth field played US Marine Al Schmitt in you too many their maturity had arrived upon the battlefields the world was no longer wondrous exotic place filled with adventure in fish is supporters Manny Farber and James AG will by now morning the shift in Luton's focus from the contemporary modern horrors of cat people and the which seemed to draw on his romantic literary weaknesses more than on his best abilities which are poetic and cinematic but Luton and his friends would have to make much less act. I'm afraid that this particular film is a cafo pretty failure and I regret and somewhat fear Luton's recent interest in costume movies horrified at when he soared those who did make the trips the theaters to see Luton off new shocker found instead provocative discussion about what to do the dreamers returning war veterans and their reintegration into civilian life would not only on over twenty million dollars at the box office but also nine Academy Awards victim to the more literary horrors of on of the dead the body snatcher and bedlam this is a vowel Luton production. I hear movie audiences of Nineteen forty-six for the past four years Luton's tales of melancholy had reflected their wartime mood while quietly rewriting to complicate matters teenagers and twentysomethings on dates who derived hoping to have their stomachs turn by the promises made by archaic decidedly horror themed advertise needed the joys of life escapist spectacles where even more important now than they had been life must go on zing found themselves ostracized and confused by the period Dialogue Matt has one helped by the critical response even Luton duel in the Sun told the tale of a young native American go who goes to live with white relatives facing prejudice because of heritage box of his Tallis Luton's first real prestige picture and Charles kind of Swansong at Keio would not unfortunately find favor the society those who do not conform to the more civilized way of thinking and a warning to those who wished to exploit the child like outcasts I'm the desk of Charles W Khanna executive vice president of production Ko studios sweet fog near Jack install the wisdom and predictions of the Great Hollywood minds what the world really wanted was reality rules of horror movies for all time but audiences at simply fallen out of love with horror with a fantastical at least for now it's too much to the yeah had a lot to say and could well have been something of a lightning rod had it been adopted by the right viewers but it's marketing scented naught around the inadequacies of the the man chosen to replace Charles Connor was Nathaniel Peter Rothman the corporate president of Arcadio until a suitable interested in stories that weren't attempting to solve social problems the highest analysts throughout this period would include the best years of our lives a multilayered Taylor movie business but his background was not one steeped in creativity but in business itself and while he may have been adapted balancing books and making the hard financial decision Hollywood showing their work that they know all care half as much about movies or human beings as heaters off such people I will always right with friendliness and replacement could be found Robin's hand on the Tiller Arcadio was one that drew much praise for some time he'd been seen as one of the steadiest minds in the and the creative side of film production was one that seemed to elude him to compound matters wrath being accused of not being done to my face of favoring Mr Luton for reasons presumed to be on the hand the actual reason is underhandedness Pitta Mi's I think that few people in insignia and pleasing films and this before I would review them disrespectfully was a reaction that was unfortunately mirrored by the Hollywood audiences were back with a bang their numbers bolstered by returning soldiers and by the year's end admissions at US box office taking the helm at the best and worst of times faulk nineteen forty-six will be something of a gold rush for not just our Ko but for the rest of in forty two the owners of the Jackson Park Movie Theater in Chicago had had enough movie theater or theatre not belonging to a movie studio obtaining these hit movies for your screens could sometimes prove difficult studios were relaxed almost on his first day being tasked with solving a problem that would eventually prove more damaging than anyone could possibly no one of the court who ruled in favor of the plaintiff judging that Cao's actions and that of the other Movie Studios Violated Antitrust Statutes and Twentieth Century Fox and so finding a bio was no problem those wishing to buy up valuable trove of Shazad swoop to rent out that prestige hits the theaters phenomenal sums allowing the theater to take older prophets from screening they would much rather milk the prophets from movie goers fast quickly in hypnotized by nineteen forty six's record numbers of audiences and paying no heed to the advice that suggested this boom in numbers was listen generated genuine buzz could sweep millions into the pockets of studios with little effort required the problem was if you were an independent hounds upon this wounded animal tearing carrying from it as it limped through protest after protest it's most important stories it's okay was fined one hundred twenty thousand dollars for the next few months its name was dragged through the mud by the press who were eager hold the industrialist Floyd ODEM sensing that the wind was about to change instantly offered up around forty percent of his shares in the company and cash and only when the cues had dried up where they happy to talk about renting these films out to other exhibited for years practice had gone on with independent Hedrick after all Arcada was at the time one of the big five players in Hollywood alongside MGM Paramount Warner Brothers. Aw the Arcada theatre situated a short distance away from Jackson Park had for years been shaking every last coin from the local movie addicts sustainable with a hefty fine to pay with its reputation okay oh and others like them were engaged in a conspiracy to distribute new movies to own theaters in such a manner that independent theaters were denied the opportunity of and Jackson pocketing struggling to profit on July twenty eight thousand nine hundred eighty two the owner of Jackson Pollack filed a lawsuit arguing that it hits such as notorious on the best years of our lives star started attractions that drew huge queues theaters having to wait until the hits were no longer hits before they got the chance to show them and seeing the prophets pale in comparison to studio owned theaters but in ninety being dragged through the mud by the news hounds and with a sudden nervous wobble on the stock market regarding its share prices Cao's new boss and Peter Raffarin and Jack Gross Luton remember the first time he'd arrived at the executive offices was suddenly under all kinds of pressure and in search of immediate advice he sought the counsel of his Three Division Bosses Robert Fellowes Sid Rojas the most red volumes were wedged in horizontally above the dusty owens crossword books mainly Canas Woolen Jacket the one he wore in the meetings Charles kind is office was relatively new to the place and carry that uncluttered uninhabited air of a room not yet lifted a room that had not yet found Vivians picture was not on his desk but on a small table below the window during the quad now on the desk in each draw even in the trash can in fact the more he thought about it looking at his office told you everything piles of half-finished scripts against the wall and the cobweb layer of sticky dust on everything the kind you couldn't blow away stories everywhere on the ride and took his seat before them something about the scene was driving him crazy with deja-vu behind them a spray of rain began to beat the window they were clearing kind of his later some other executive would be here by Wednesday some other Cologne some other Chad best ways of making money as a Hollywood studios to own a string of theaters and show your films that I run the case which took over three years to come to court was decided on February twenty fifth nineteen forty six by the supreme a whole new story Luton hoped he'd never have to see it he checked his watch the meeting was about to begin it's fragrance a room with no story no trail to follow and yet today as Luton waited it told everything about I'd like to know why we've asked you here Luke and glance at each of them in time no Mr Raffarin I'm GonNa make this especially difficult today. Finished for the day was hung on the back of the leather chair his wife had bought for him on his desk a small wooden model of a boat on the stand the words by Luton looked at Russell's pencils it's crippled the problem is that we're in the midst of something of a transition Mathurin continued you know if you read the papers slightly said Bob Fellows Oh Bob said loosen you know I always liked you I think it's one of the great tragedies of my life that I wasn't in your d it got the idea that everything's on the up we're not as strong as you believe he smiled at Luton poor guy probably doing the best he could and his friend the bookcase near the window had begun his okay nuys but was overgrown Ravin laughed and they noticed that he was the only one doing so well he said clearing his throat as I'm sure you're aware you're not the only producer we've had to call in aw that's the official line right that's the story you've been hearing Mr Raffarin from Laurel and hardy that Rojas Pencil suddenly stop script sane person in this zoo decided to die in pain up until then though it was like Mardi gras every single day I'd get to whack light a few hundred dollars Luton what story hays off his tall whether someone could walk into his room and now a little something about him from the we looked down at the boat on the desk and smile I think we both now this is going to go right jars well obviously I feel terrible for you Luton's add guess we're only GonNa make fifty one million dollars this year that fifty two how do you think you've been doing are you still that you've taken the Council of mines vastly inferior to your own but I'd be extraordinarily grateful to us if you stop fumbling with your papers there mary-anne on its side the kind of boat he sailed in the bathtub when the boy inside the wheel from that moment the door of the joining US Ajay author rank group in Britain yes said Luton that's off Rathbun's at I never saw the point in it myself we fund half a movie Rex Connor would swing his Tara and there before him everything he laughed Vivian Assam address and the studio beyond cold because California is colder than the Arctic as we all know so I burn hundred dollar bills all day which the board just love old I every day just bugging me room was a little Ajar Ghana shaving brush and combs were still down on the glass show on the air the faint aroma has colognes they'll gross folded his arms slowly I think perhaps Matheson's Ed you do better with smaller budgets thing Rothman Hummed himself from moment leaving softly through several documents at his fingertips Well Anyway I've been looking over some of the Russell was writing something on a scratch pat and did not look up wrath inmate to stand up but was stopped by gross who at that moment leaned across mcgann Mama Luton taste right I mean I'm very very happy with what we've achieved in that department so far but I think at least for now I'd like to explore other options thank you for coming Raffarin said Nice to meet you Mr Luton pledges will mine lived in Chuckled Rothman smiled and clasped his hands before him and we get half the prophets where's the sense in that might as well keep it all in house Luton glanced at gross who raised an eyebrow and snapped ruth was going Asian you seem so reasonable thank you now about the question how do I think I've been doing oh pretty good until last month when the sure it's my opinion that perhaps your best work is done with with Mr Gross we make HAL team grow said with a grin A few doors along they were waiting for him Bob Fellow smiled warmly as he ended the fun the best part was that so many whys people told me not to but I just carried on because that's the kind of Guy I am he laughed and regarded said Luton Charles Kinda was good man said Raffin why he flashed a pain smile at Luton he made a lot of very good taes are the types of movie the killing the Horror Department we're simply responding to the public grow said Hamas down across the ball don't do this Charles loved that script if you never okay another project between now and the day my contract ends then fine but don't throw this one away upcoming projects you have Mr Raffarin you seem like a nice enough man and I'm really sorry that we've had to meet under these circumstances I'm sorry it devastated. She'd spent the last two months researching London fashions and mocking out places to visit even Virginia was excited about Madame Toussaud's decisions made a few bad ones he showed that Luton smile two of them are in this room roggio Stephan to begin to scribble again in snapped Jack be a human being Raffarin folded his arms and leaned back roggio looked Everett gross who looked down once more the caused now are being a little more selective with our projects wouldn't you just know it looks like the horror movies are out of favor at the moment he shrugged now account Oh not Roggio Grin so you want me to pitch any future idea is is that what you're saying wow said gross that's what everyone else has to do paper in his hand he mused upon it for awhile I I just don't see it he dropped a deliberate your proposal for movie called Black Band Not Shaw Pirate Movies Kinda went out in the Thirties Lutheran watched his bob fellow shook his head slightly talking of which said gross he picked up a piece of paper and squinted at it I have had neela and watched as Luton had lost his cool it was the satisfied face of someone who just won a fortune on a horse and all of a sudden the feeling of Deja d- Russell moment we just feel that it's not the right property said gross. Boris are not Jack I wish you had a backbone said Luton I am not convinced as an audience these days Charles signed off on that Newton said not on paper Charles left it wow grow set I guess right He's written a brilliant story Boris's in Charles loved it their season passes set gross we're just considering what best stop with the lies awesome good idea listen to each and every one of them I'll just bet you well Jack Gross looked around at the office we all have our own little peccadillo I'm not a fan myself Boris has agreed to play the lead where contents to let this one slide. Dan smiled gluten he'd seen this smile before the same queasy confidence smile he'd received at that first meeting when gross decree to change in paint playing the part of fans equality even though their minds have been made up long before he arrived and he thought of Nell Bowen in Bedlam when the Planets Align Rachel Nice to see how he swept past Luton followed swiftly by fellows and then Raffarin who patted lose jacket pocket and stood up launches on me Fellas what's the occasion chuckled Bob fellows rising from his chair does one of those Bri- some days when universal that putting on the brakes time to try other things 'cause we got just sign off on anything you want so you just come up with your ideas and we'll take them one at a time tally of their goals giving her case against the jury that had long before decided to banish into obscurity and to remove her from that site wow said Rodman I think I know how you like it alone he winked told you seated and just like that foul Luton's are Ko and just let me have it on the Chin Rothman considered from moment and then straightened you've been asked to oversee a joint production initiative with blue seemed to coalesce in his mind like the gradually stealing water lake who service has been broken by pebble before him with the Council of men deciding for all of us when I say that we're very much looking forward to seeing what you come up with next and seeing where it is you you're GONNA fit in around here he said Roggio who dropped the pencil and room he'd never seen before today so much ended he took from his pocket the small wooden boat that had until half an hour ago lived our department was dead Luton had grow slip through the door and out towards a no doubt one course automated lunch courtesy said Roggio funny how empty room can get so sudden almost hate to leave you don't want to be late for lunch why don't you stay up here while I think it's my ideas Mr Luton got demoted bill opened the paper and lifted the lid of his sandwich corned beef and Sauerkraut many walls and angel and she could get angry as a July sun no more corned beef and Sauerkraut Luton was reading in the back a thick block of papers also the room silence was overwhelming strange he taught himself the silent and somewhat obscure room bills and use those to light up my cigars which incidentally will made out of hundred dollar bills you have to burn money wherever you can in this place then of course I get braided into chunks with clips bill watched his face in the rear view frowning his lips moving ever so slightly as read sometimes he's smiling on Charles kind of desk and ran his finger across the name I'm so sorry Giles supposed to tell you this but you know he's got to get rid of the red car why because if he does then he has to get rid of you can afford both put away the papers and smooth is tie checked the angle of the handkerchief in his talk pocket looking Pretty Dapper this morning said Bill Bradley he ignored the praying of pain and held his boca face you out at something of a generous budget via last film Charles Kinda believed in me any idea of the task before him trying to sell a bunch of stories to a man who bore him the bitterest of grudges he had no choice but the drive himself hotter and since then bill had felt kind of terrible about things he wished he could say something thank you even but that would mean betraying minis trust few moments during the witching hour and the disappeared minutes at his desk when he jerked painfully awake having slumped asleep across his typewriter keys knows it talk to me I know we've had our problems I know you think I've been unfair I really don't know watch it they say Stop Newton said Jack Thanks said his boss he held out a hand and smiled began to quiver nervous day a hat bills I've never been a salesman bill mind think of how she told him think of the children think of yourself instead of that damn studio he wished he could but no one really had bill missed the rat buick kind of made it feel like a racing driver bills knee was giving him hell and he'd been grouting since he'd arrived you Ignani many starting don't you go fitting that car with bad feelings this morning there's enough of those around his do you have another appointment to go to Luton met Orion hell it. Remarkably the goal did not flinch she could be the next Jane greer he thought terrifies me what are you selling stories ideas myself will broken into pieces and put onto paper you've been working hard sometimes he'd flat out laugh and tried to hide it good stuff bill throat as they drifted into town Luton he bet she got the office job without even opening on now by eleven the Chad beneath him but become unreasonably hard and small he talked his folder the Mr vowel hadn't like go faster than forty five many had told him the story a sheet folded his savage in Brown paper one morning and shoved it down shoulder once gross was the last pass him he stopped at Luton side and rocked on his heels now you make sure you come up with just to escape the side of crumbling stubborn husband adheres at heart the most the way she turn her head away when he went to aside gross his office from time to time the God of the desk would cost him a withering glance her green is sweeping him from head to toe each time she did visit spent the weeks and a fury if she hadn't been loudly demanding he stop and rest then she'd been storming from the house in a rage dragging poor valley with outside the gross waiting for you can go right in thank you myron Lieberman said he smooth back his hair and took several breaths he kidding Luton said I've been here it's eight thirty I'm afraid Mr Lieberman has an eleven o'clock appointment the gall sad you can go right in Mr Lieberman right through that he's expecting you leave him his arm and began to pace excuse me came the girl's voice Mr Gross doesn't like people to pace barrier to stops the rooms below you have better seats for people he growled you need to tell gross to get a couch sure I'll do that and I terrified him they rolled up in front of the executive building built and in his seat and winked. Good Luck Mr. Salesman mm-hmm it was sweet of bill to be so facetious but he knew as well as everyone else in the household that the past several weeks being tough he'd hardly slept apart from which hit the man so sharply the almost dropped his case Myron Lieberman he said I'm here to see Mr Gross my point one was for eleven is call us suddenly felt too tight pretty thing twenty-five maybe read beauty queen from somewhere probably showed up looking for stopping L. Somehow and then he realized that Jack Gross was smiling happy smile do straight from the heart his right arm was hung across lieberman shoulder composer Luton stamped at the row three seats once more slapped his folder down on three and planted himself squarely on to why in God's name don't himself a young man with small round glasses appeared at the doorway breathless the girl suddenly turned on the wide white smile of Rita Hayworth on a dance floor an out toward the desk they strode murmuring delightedly to each other Luton stood in court groceries I vow grow said when he saw him Gosh I forgot so sorry to be late I had to get the streetcar and then the fellow at the front gate one at all kinds of permits and identification 's Mr Lieberman the girl said brightly you know I always listened better on a full stomach anyway grow said as he in Lieberman reach the door he glanced back over his shoulder don't go off anywhere he code how before I took off my shoes the guy looks down at Luton's feet with unbridled discussed will he be much longer Luton said the go shrugged a- as things stood Luton had no project no production for the first time in four years he was adrift with no land in sight and the forty-five grossest door opened for the first time that day Luton saw the man himself he looked unusual and for moments Luton couldn't place it ask the redhead put down at crossword puzzle Catholic took off glasses and picked it up on ring six this is the office of Jj Gross Luton tried now but we shall be back real soon you just make yourself comfortable Jack I've been waiting all morning gross that the words hang on the air you can take your looked awkwardly at Luton who's ten bad began to show in Crimson Blocher's around his collar he glad is Lieberman eased Pasta and slipped towards Jack grosses door for the next few hours Luton waited a here if you've been waiting all morning we had a meeting Luton said right he glanced at his watch well Myron I just out to lunch ideas Luton felt himself deflate slightly felt his jaw slowly unclench he dropped his head and made his way slowly back to the seats rolled his eyes chain j Oh yes Mr Gross Oh yes Mr Gross the go picked up a bolt wind eight that when he opened them all he could see bruises and the site of feet rushing toward from between them somewhere was bill calling who's the Luton Mr might be five minutes maybe thirty hate to get back and find you gone it was two thirty when the phone shrilled on the receptionist Mr Gross won't be returning this afternoon Luton felt the room orbiting from moment then swing to a stop slowly began in his chest and burned out through shoulder and down toward his fingertips he growled through his teeth and felt his knees clenching his is shot so tired them hunger was beating him from the inside like a bow thank you for your time by the time he reached the there's a lot of work sure the girls had she pointed that the needs stack of papers on the corner he hesitated for moment and put it carefully she scribbled something on a note then leaned over and began to strike out something on a different cheat with funds drought I'll see to it Mr Gross have a wonderful afternoon says would prove so strong. The nineteen forty-six will be the most profitable year yet in Hollywood's history but on the flip side Raffarin had ruth was doing our best play Nice but as much as she wanted to sing to his side and drape her arms across him and cry into the room was an inch deep in tears eight years away if you lie come back some other time I'm sure we can set something up for next month month after just a pitch meeting right he's not like was shot on she was far too angry it wasn't good for vowed union to see how this way poor kid only saw his father sick ad here the girl said nothing the children his hand Luton looks down at it I don't have any copies of these he said right thank you Sir thank you yes I'll do that good bye she dropped the phone into its place in gave Luton half the Hayworth Grin I'm afraid you'll have to reschedule she Luton Bluer breath nodded then loosened his tie inflict opened his top button is blood thumped in waves through his face so would you like some more he turns the photo over inside slowly he walks to the desk and placed it carefully down please take care of it he said I've been door if the executive building the headey could become famous he could tell by the valets face that he looked like how sad you want your car sir why why don't they why wasn't she enough for him Ruth Felt Harangue arise again and made for the he collected himself and goes to his feet his back at set like concrete and his eyes were weak beneath the blackest of headaches Mr Gross said that you can leave now forty two years old and recovering from his second heart attack and all because he just wouldn't stop Orleans Rose Garden grinning from the doorway as she floated through the air on the swing seemed like yesterday and yet here he was so much like his father that sometimes it took our breath away in a year or maybe two he was going to look like value out the day she I met him in Nope over and over and getting closer and does it went dark all he could think about was how strange was for bill to suddenly get so aw why don't you take a seat the girl said that she glance through handbag she fished out a stick of gum and unwrapped it Mr Liebermann shouldn't be too long in bad and looking like his own ghost how could he understand twice now she gone into Jackie was still still breathing gotta the Valley I think maybe I do and then a surge of pain shot through him like a bullet mm-hmm God how did that life come to this and found Valich they're called up like a coma and sleeping on his father's arm he looked for heaven all he wanted to do snuggle with the cat she used to cry and he leaps out of bed and run off to see you'd hear him doing at her and singing old man river listen things are easy and now the side is said Ray first few weeks from the end of the garden Nina's donkey gave a brave agreement I understand why she's mad can you believe it raise ad that donkey smells better than you right now a donkey Luton Luton side and smile you know fine it's okay to stop the I know you I know you're not in this for the glory you're doing it for them okay she said standing and taking his hand remember how bad you smell and remember they have laws against polluting the ocean made of paper and she refused to stop dancing next to the flames and you told her again and again that you loved her and that you couldn't Pajama trousers good mind my style he said catching her gaze you smell like a funeral home race at a used the ODA to repel flies sunglasses back up the bridge of her nose grimace toward the ocean many appeared on the patio where the tray of sandwiches many your dream and they don't deserve you said slowly he collected himself adjusted his gown then took his dark glasses from his pocket and put them on he tied towards her and held out a hand oh he smiled from moments and then looked over at the house and my wife it seems she'll come around said ray the flies will too in case you worried I looked at Luton now the garden gye the top of his chest showing at the va his navy dressing is bottom half was rendered decent by powder blue woah sitting in your garden at two PM in your pajamas you don't even have the strength to pick your son up of the ground and you smell like Limburg Luton side trying not jack it was a terrible thing to do to someone so fragile but ruth was right gotten to the point where any means necessary now matt you it didn't stop either did it. She knew this was going to happen. How many chances at heart attack do you think you get it's Russian in town that afternoon why do you WanNa Dance Jazz let's go for a walk down to the ocean you're right I need to behave let your big idiot she's been telling you for year to take it easy and instead of doing that you went hell for leather trying to impress Jack Gross and now he the talent that that doesn't help blackout sound but he looks like a chipmunk and I need all the reasons in the world not to beat him to death these times ray pushed right if you ever get tired of it you come right on over and work with me you got a baby right said mini right many snorted and walked back to the house but they'd rather have you than another hit for Arpaio that's why Ruth so matt imagine if she was the one with the hot twin the wellwisher would direct deputy towards him he never had so many nicknames in all his life I doing ranger how are you holding Virginia had followed his mother around the market while she squeezed fruits and vegetables tasks them and bickered with the man at the meat counter about how much a pound of brisket should call even a quarter to spend his whole which cost the entire coin included a stiff felt cowboy hat a thick deck of baseball cards held live without but those flames were so prized up he sat quietly he stood up turned away ray took a sandwich and ate it as you watched his shoulders but what about you share and how's the cops out here by the time they reached the car noted their bags into the trunk both he and his mother were through with sympathetic nods and pats on the as a reward for his tolerance Valich was escorted to the thrift store just every few minutes someone would stop his mother and ask how his father was doing and valid would wait and try not to yawn shuffle on his heel until that inevitable the ride home of being a painful blend of ruth having to laugh uproariously ask the supposedly devastating with the powers molten collection and shoppers bucs at the overbearingly racist overtones of the powers modern collection an intoxicated is not a bit did the full hut me but when I stopped at the ground I broke my leg ruth shut it the car drew against the sound of the sea was another one one she hoped was gone forever Heym a Nevis little man walked into a grocery orient val genius scans the page and delight duly says well Mr Hooley was you had much in the fall and Hooghly in front of the House Valjean remained buried in his book grinning has his mother let out of the car and she scooped up the bags in haram she stopped stupid she'd put the typewriter in the bottom of the wardrobe even moved his desk out into the lounge at the end of the whole mini appeared drying dish with a small shorts and vast glasses hanging magically from the end of his nose before him was the typewriter and hovering above the keys the extended index fingers of both I was trying to finish before you got home he said that makes it okay why are you trying to kill yourself why aren't you happy here store not now sweetie I want you to play in the garden take your baseball cards and go play but I wanna see that do it's now she's not she drops the eggs in the open drunken flew toward the house the tapping was louder now ruth felt tears spring to her eyes how could he be so rewrite of something you really like he leaned back in his seat letter he said Ruth held his gaze confused from women the by an elastic band a plastic telephone and the book entitled Twenty Five Hundred Jokes for all occasions by powers molten the gentleman said it was over here see that one's fine roots and oh my goodness it's such a funny joke you think that will like it I think he will just a someone asked a policeman I say which is the other side of the street Y.? Over there was the onset strange I was just over there and everything I miss it I'm trying to hold it together but I don't know how I don't have enough of a grip on and selfish I wasn't thinking about you or the children are so consumed with doing better with me even know what comes next I don't know where I fit in there anymore I feel like it's all falling apart all ending how she went to say something but ruth held up a hand and pushed on the study door he was there perched upon his small chair dressing gown boxes dance poised for action what are you doing to me she gossiped couldn't you give it a rest for a few weeks don't you get it what is the matter with you a hand we done ruth please just tell me why vow please what was so important story idea memo another pitch for Jack Gross the next to him her knees touched the ground a hand on his face come home she said come home to leave it she said distantly well he shrugged I guess we'll see I'm sorry that I forgot I promised a TA leaked from the side of her I I've been blind and stupid issues lips moving slightly as they followed the words Bruce Nap always at her most extraordinary in the most conventional of moment things anymore I'm so tired he closed his eyes and crumpled in his seat his face in his hand he saw her tennis shoe making sure the stories I could see in my mind getting to the screens completely intact withdrawing to withdraw to win fine for now I will I have it in writing Lebanon she said holding up his latter the doctor once he rested up for six months six months believe it you remember when we were kids he said the day we told your parents that we were getting married your father he did his best to make you believe that I was no good that was gonna leave you in the dust I made you a promise I promise never leave you rebuilding itself to notice them Luton soon discovered the pleasures of sleeping late of walking into town his hands in his pockets to buy it paper and the few items on Minis lists some afternoons Ruth would catch sight of him holding a one sided conversation with Nina's donkey cle- pulled it from its place and Luton watched there and the funny golden late afternoon light still wearing her woollen hat and how slacks and I'm sorry he said I am endlessly ingloriously unconditional shut she reached out and took it at the merits of Dickens or the overarching problems with Hemingway's well it was with some regret that the household bait my father rediscovered his love movies then vowed genius had late we'd go out to a movie theater every week Tan Line is caller was no more on some evenings he'd even been known to cook mainly Tomato garlic based inventions that he insisted had been audit his family's heritage although Nina senior when questioned by ruth during phone calls good never recall anything in that history other than potatoes and sour green beheld his face and hands smoothing away his head the way that aren't Allah done when he was a boy and before his the first over two years of happiness she reached the bottom of the page and look his way you mean this he closed his eyes and not make me so bill had become Raymond once more and all was right with the puppy fat around Luton's neck begun to shrink he learned so much about movies by the way the coming artists moved from one scene to another on weekends we'd go down to the boat with my mother and Nina she was home and sale and then looks down towards the tied at the top of the page the words dearest do Shinka she felt him take but the send-off included a well-stocked envelope of bells a warm embrace and a bag of Minis corned beef and Sauerkraut for the road it's no work no calls no stress no trying to win promise promise he said and he once told me that he dreamed movies that his dreams had cuts and fades and closeups he laughed comex established something of a legend for himself in the brief history of Hollywood his first foray into the world of entertainment come through his summer job as a dog's body had the flagler the family was delighted to hear that within a week of leaving them bill had begun driving a nice young producer in the hills it was to navigate the coal bill by his first name resort hotel in the catskill mountains his willingness to take orders and fascination with the organized entertainments there saw him taken firmly gone to return the face ruth nap how come this gal never seem to age how you manage I wonder oh putting the typewriter back in the water I will if you want to write anymore cute lettuce you use a pencil like all the other caveman bad but my father's career wasn't going very well so it wasn't an entirely happy time he felt alienated and depressed and he was having trouble tale the single blue Buick was hardly running at all these tags and even bill had to concede that his part in that story had run its cause and he was always reading them tearing the pirates was a favorite of his he believed the comic books were a precursor to the movies I clearly remember him talking about this telling me let's do to its social and entertainment director Don Hartman the man who would later become the head of paramount pictures though this element of any production whether large or small scale was always the story with Hotz help young is a door soon discovered his oh not to shoot for storytelling and began to write shortening his name slightly from isidori Sherry to simply Dory Sherry Gatien was unorthodox the constant battle between the flag land gross inches managed to instill an important lesson upon young is a door namely that the most important the wing of the social and Entertainment Director There Moss Hart who eventually will go on to write several of Broadway's biggest hits including the man who came to dinner and the monster followed told the family begin to gain existing as it were the edge of a world that was far too busy repeat vehicle who was much younger than my father was often they're so was Alan Napier I remember going skiing with the Napier's they had a cabin up at Arrowhead or big did upright staring into the inkwell or the oily gears of typewriter hoping that the muses of inspiration visit breakfast was says temporarily while a suitable replacement for Giancana's found the man brought in was is Dorrie Sherry who for almost two decades Yukon take it with the flag lists main competition was another resort hotel gross inches also fast becoming famed for its entertainment up by four it was far more important to have a good desk and Chad then a bed with all its springs from five am to five pm you applied ladies was while he was appearing tracy in hit play the last mile that he received good news by some miracle old sometimes they'd have parties and we'd have lots of different guests jock Tony was often there and he would bring people over sometimes I can remember Burt Lancaster the name change at first horrified his staunchly Jewish parents but when he pointed out to them the Dory was in fact the Hebrew word for gate to my generation they were mm-hmm the best work was done in the morning or so the great ones said and so despite the ambitions to be the next Byron Hemingway it was bed by nine and route's red hot tires storm over the Andy Chinatown squad and ladies in distress may have suggested that Cherry was set for life amount called Hollywood barely visible through the lemon rind windows and bursts violent sunlight and across the way somewhere beyond that Horizon Cherry's first script had landed on the desk of producer Walter Wager who liked what he read and send a communication to New York office which read hi Dorrie Herat's lunch was cigarettes dinner was coffee with a side order of cigarettes laundry was a once a week deal you didn't need your shots look to whites and the music of a factory took your poem that Shod of your heart and flattened it out for the world the long to a rump pom pom overdue now the formative for years he spent in front of the typewriter could perhaps a full cost very different faith titles such as fury of the jungle murder in the between nineteen thirty three and nineteen thirty seven Dorey Sherry along with several score others live the Hollywood writer lifestyle Sherry was an avowed Democrats and left wing advocate despite their political beliefs though no one could deny the cherry had the MIDAS touch when it came to movies took nineteen forty seven had arrived and with it a new head of production at Keio to replace and the Raffarin whose reign had always been intended that's how your skin was sickly green the most important thing was vitamin C. to fend off scurvy and outside the smog and Babylon very she writes with a lot of vigor for woman despite the inaccuracy Sherry was hot for one hundred dollars a week and made the move to Hollywood daddy seven his play too many heroes found a solid audience on Broadway and slowly Hollywood came to realize that it may have misconduct this misunderstood genie calved knows and almost instantly cherry and Raff went to warm wrath like his boss Louis. B Mayer was a staunch Republican decided the Dory Sheri's was a talent worth acquiring an offer sherry the role of production head for his newly established Vanguard Films Company incredibly his offense out among the contracted jobs he took on for the studios he may devote several of his desk bound hours each day to his own passions in nineteen in polk cinema his screenplay for the film the girl from Scotland Yard told the tale of a detective played by Karen Morley who joins forces with a reporter Tabei Robert Baldwin to pursue a death ray wielding anarchist with a pathological hatred of Britain and yet Sherry had loftier ambition it all proved to be enduring on lucrative victories that Father Exalted both vanguard and the name of Dory Sherry by nineteen forty seven force. I'll be seeing you. Nineteen forty-six is the spiral staircase nineteen forty-sevens the bachelor and the bobby socks and the same years the farmer's daughter if you want Kaffa that kind of lifestyle kilian no such luck for Dory Sherry his name is one linked with financial rewards by the time nineteen forty four had rolled around David o cells Nick Latin Rock prow the brief dalliance with acting soul sherry appearing on Broadway alongside the likes of Paul Mooney and Spencer Tracy in the we'll get any projects off the ground changed while line and money spent on horror films rarely being recouped he was also of the opinion that at least for now their destinies lay elsewhere not Joe Smith American kid glove killer baton and lassie come home where all multimillion dollar hits that firmly established shared Cassini at the time was that OC EO and Hollywood we're in the final days of the golden on trade his attention on the beat vision here he was caught alongside producer Harry braff known colloquially his colleagues as the anti-terror Judas long a lucrative nineteen forty six and established reputation as a studio that could produce success from low budgets a number of well loved movie series like the artists while why seem to have transitioned effortlessly into crime dramas Nicholas Mussa Raka and Roy Webb but both now saint and the Falcons to capitalize on and Hollywood's hottest producer the helm the future looked bright for what known could stint vanguard production chief between nineteen forty four and nineteen forty seven saw him rise even further upwards in the Hollywood hierarchy hit such as nineteen forty nine the producers around him now unfamiliar the officers were alive with people he no longer recognised even the banks of receptionist his screenplay for nine thousand nine hundred eighty eight boys down starring Spencer Tracy Undiminished Academy Award for best story and other successes such as Broadway melody of Nineteen family entrenched in the nausea Mussa rock in particular was making something was splash as the industry's former scribe of the ever evolving language studio in the first months of nineteen forty seven Jerry's rain at the studio was underway like Raffarin before Him Sheri was content to be advised by the response to Luton's arrival back at the studio was muted by now mock ropes and Robert Wise team with director Jacques Torna to produce out of the past widely recognized even today as perhaps the greatest example of noir storytelling and photography Vay that Hollywood ever produced all of which left Val Luton rather stranded six months in Hollywood tons was alive commissary and remain completely anonymous the faces were younger. The talk was obscure and remote even the so-called Star aw cinema his work on films such as the spiral staircase and lock it will being lauded as revolutionary and by the end of the year he would again it was as though he was a kid again and his parents had made a move school the foundations with the same but the school yard was full of new kids who had this division bosses but also by the data hoorah had never been genre that interested him and so when the figures show that audiences for the genre where Indy Walk Eos Boorda become convinced the Dory Sherry was the man to lead that production output and hide him on a five year contract old ingredients were that is seemed ever more precious and ever more distant the final straw came in the spring when he received written notice fulfillment he knew what lonely felt like the difficult truth of it was the dark ao had forgotten him was surviving just he's in the middle of nineteen thirty seven he was lowered away from the hack writing jobs by MGM who doubled his salary to see to it that he could fine without him and the people he loved most in all the while the family he'd grown and developed and sent off upon their own voyages in Hollywood we're doing is were seeking opportunities in different fields Robeson a become more interested in developing his voices director of drama and was busy creating projects at united no idea about who he was and as each day passed the memory of the days with Connor and Torna and ray and ropes and highly of plastic nothing like the robust Remington noiseless she'd had upstairs she could hear every footstep in the office above where they kept elephants apparent the rear of the building the order was signed by Jack j gross and all of a sudden gross in nineteen forty five promise had come to it's painful aisling or frowning or weeping the script he was reading Radha TAT TAT on the typewriter two fingers at a time wonderful day now secretaries at changed the happened at time when he could have taken his stroll through the backlog and greeted a thousand people along the way now he could take lunch in a crowded that his office was being requisitioned for the use of some young newly hired producer Luton was advised to make use of new premises on a lower floor someone all day her out the door open just a crack impact ahead asking easy in and him in his chair shirt open at the neck glasses halfway down his nose smashed awesome walked the whole surrounded by latkes and smelling like hundred dollar perfume seemed fake and how come everyone seems so disshevelled these days but there was one person who is even more distressed by this new situation and that was yes have you heard anything back from Mr Groceries office now anything about the whack I sent before before the I sleep and he was at once filled with joy and pride and the Mt Everest heartache of his life left with his secretary maybe that right maybe I mislaid it chain I worked hard on that stuff yes ed they had yet to install water machine Cheetahs for God knows what she was Gonna put it anyway the girls on the ground floor one is applied signed whispers Mama Bear was getting the royal treatment wore off after a month of course now she cries and he presses his eyes shut tight pardon me break nothing that's still saying that they never received a folder containing pitch ideas so strange Luton's at I could have sworn all he seemed to do was sit there reading book but not beating Really Jacob Towel by the way he suddenly jerked when she went in their stead down at the ZAP stairs you had to pack a mile away plus there was just no room anyway it was a damn dingy little hall and to Make Matters Worse oh Mr Newton cheeks remember the days when the whole studios the flow through his office the stories piling up on her desk the calls rattling the phone you Mr Newton said burner but you know what I think I'll stick around here Gatien need anything you could go visit your brother burner so you'll need ages if he'd been concentrating he used to read three books a day now he stared at the same one all day law verner he said leaning in from his doorway the phone Italian suddenly began to Shrill Verna and Luton swapped round she straightened and snatched it up hello this is the office of Valley now why on Earth would I want to do something like that but I can sit in this goddamn torture device of a chair look around in Harare the state of this shoebox trying to exist in in how may I help you Luton slipped from the doorway out star desk leaning in to try and hear the voice of the receiver Verna suddenly glad I think something like loosened checked his watch hey look van I think seeing is how it's Friday why don't you take off start the weekend thank you Vanna Democracy the new office was lacking janitors closet the new typewriter seemed to be made in surprise and joy and taking a pencil began to scratch something down right yes no apple be fine Luton craned is next attempted to read her scroll Mussa's back room might have cost he has appointments all day but I think I can safely say that he'll make an exception across on the next tables Dorothy pokka Humphrey bogart tyrone power. Mary Pickford Lauren in the Fifties Charlton Heston one of the biggest stars in the world at the time arrived with the Party of Eight people and demanded entry when he was told that the David o Celtic Musso and Frank Grill had been integral their favourite being flannel cakes fresh coffee Douglas Fairbanks and Charlie Chaplin would race daily to the restaurant on horses the loser even God can't get a table and Moose owes back room he said well Yana dining with God said your dining with his boss I've been invited to lunch today at two PM in the back room of Musso and frank's grill loosen took the paper and gave a low whistle the part of Hollywood's history as the many stars who adored the payphone in the fabled back room the first payphone installed Oh Dashiell Hammett and Orson Welles would meet and mingle and sign contracts roast duck and lamb chops safe in the knowledge that they were protected from autograph it is so at peace was Raymond Chandler here that it was while sipping whiskies brought to him by waiters who slipped away swiftly the place where he wrote mild sweetly at him you see now just imagine the mess you would have made that call if I hadn't been here held up the piece of paper you had the one to foot the bill usually chapman will be the victor of the race mcglone over his favourite dish of roast lamb kidneys well he in fairbanks kept an eye on the in Hollywood have been the one upon which careers have been killed and born since the silence and the wait was an hour esten stormed out and never time sells like Blue God stern maitre d' would stand God if you want headlining a movie Costa or running the studio itself the answer was no wait was an hour he angrily asked if the major de knew who he was the maitre d' casually looked Heston up down replied that he knew damn well who he was what is tied up outside the booth they used came to be known as the chaplain booth and to this day it's the most requested booth by visiting several chapters of the big sleep on the door to the back room perhaps the most hallowed doorway all you see the booth that scene everyone from John Barrymore to Jack Warner take drinks and dinner together Gary Cooper Greta Garbo were regular breakfast companions my friend here will have the same the waiter hurried away Luton glasses ride to see Robert Mitchum in a plaid pattern shirt stabbing potatoes with four he looked like he being awake for a week tough year for you so I was Iran Connor now he waved toward the direction of Luton's chess on the wind and dropped into the seat opposite within a moment a red jacket did waiter was at their side with a pencil going beef and cabbage thousand Short Zinfandels why was he happy they're all he knew that he'd been the happiest and softly he looked up at cells neck and shook his head applies anymore honestly it's not the same now sells nick leaned forward in his seat and fix is on Newton's house I am the astronomical salary of fourteen hundred dollars per week as well as guarantee said salary for two years a deal unheard of in Hollywood at the Time Desert Carlos notice that for this man bad heart you know the door clatters shut behind him Luton and Mitcham exchanged glances well drooled Mitchum smile. I believe I could use this man's dessert onto the question without sounding like petulant teenager he'd be happy if everyone stopped flying away to wonderful futures and came back to him if he could put ray on salary with that Luton's remaining reasons to stay at Arco the home of his greatest successes had gone and he knew that the the reason for Celtics hasty departure had been due to a two thirty five PM meeting with Buddy Silver Head of production admit I've had a little bird tells me you've had your department closed a little shame about that place cells like mused doc I wouldn't I'm not what you call connected anymore said Luton tells nick checked his watch from your town doesn't sound like you're married so we had a great team we had lots of control we will making great stories and it's almost like everyone graduated and went off to begin the real professional ethics he guest one look at the place something to do with Charles mostly because he couldn't bear the ID name was right to leave Luton's last day apple was here someone else's problem now goes the three hundred also doggy at novels in boxes could stay to perhaps his success would find the next big stack neatly into one third of secret the pipe he'd been given by Ray before she found out he hated them was placed next practical things new sean of each scene and each character the way they had done if he can bring connor back to life as no that he had at least one ally paramount studios two forty five PM cells they could not only convinced the silver to hire vow Luton as paramount's newest producer but also the are your satisfaction you're good man and you deserve good things regards David right stories with her all day if interest ropes and unwise in brooding tales of melancholy and data and heartache and spend nights on end talking about the and then he remembered the item in the bottom drawer of his desk and smiled ends out couldn't leave that it but more than anything he wished it could just be a normal day when he got he couldn't even remember why he'd made the Johnny ars and money eggs and Bacon later they waived him away as he drove the Buick like he was going on a sea voyage it was sweet of them to do hi Ruth in has some address and both of them standing by his chair and smiling without using their is he got the same treatment from his sister when she wanted typewriter oil a new pack of pencils diaries and a bag of marbles that had somehow stowed away to whack his jacket one day all these things before the contracts even being finalized cells they could deliver the news to Luton in a customarily brief memorandum which concluded with the words hope this is Robert Wise and Nicholas Araca Roy Webb Phil McDonald and dewitt Bodine and del Ray Al was a Friday breakfast was the kind you got if you're the queen of some place derived in the kitchen divine garlic in shot and race him the bottle pot followed by a small cheer verner appeared at the door holding a horizontal book upon which were balanced the dozen also run to cancel my unless you wanted to yourself and give my friend here anything he wants he stood and began to walk through the door then stopped and span around except different place from a year ago while the food's a little better grinned wise we got corned beef at the cafeteria yesterday they laughed you spend walk with you here and now this was my place in the wild this was our place he looked between their faces each paper Cups swiped from the water dispenser if there was any justice they have high you accountable and done this in the Commissary said Roy Webb whether Hal is if it stings arriving at his home box the reports were laughed in that stacks against the wall financial paperwork stretching as far back as captain China was the Guy Sheri's got sand he's GonNa legs but I wonder about what will happen next seemed like they're struggling with direction seemed like the happy to keep shoving out saint movies and gardeners is except for you look at cells what I'm trying to get at Val is are you still happy how could he hit he said he hadn't the pictures of Ruth and the kids of Boras child of his aunt and mother and sister to return to the House with him but that was the rest was asked if they wanted it it was as even if they didn't want it first of all from now on the winds changing somehow I don't know if it's because of the war something else but I feel as though Hollywood's on the heads were small kinds of newspaper tended to party hats you didn't think you were getting out of here without an embarrassing sendoff did you green Robeson Luton Smile finger touch the handle the door was suddenly thrown open ends there the threshold where the faces he done consciously been hoping to see run and Mark Robson it's eleven a m you think Jack grows is going to be happy when he finds out you skip school to be here it's fine ray said well just tell him you planned it what's he gonNa do John and the opportunity to prove myself you allow me to change my life for the better I'll never be able to thank you properly host would come down just to make sure you were going said Must Araca Luton waited for the chuckle deny care about anyone else he said you're the owner just old hat but also for allowing me even more important gift of your Friendship Khalaf held up his cop I five Nicholas Moose. ARACA reached beneath his jacket and produce the bottle of champagne as he wrestled with the Cork they spilled into his office I'd like to propose a toast of Owl Luton the finest producer in Hollywood and the finest friend a man could want eh people I wanted to see today he raised his Paper Cup and smiled at them silently they followed him I don't know what the future will bring Ed Merlo ride sells an exact he checked his watch again and then raised his hand in the snapping his fingers waiter flew to the table Carlos Tehran adjusted his ties verner blushing scrambled for another cop swilling the golden firming wine into it God bless you my dear he said catching his we want anyway more importantly said why he's checking his watch where's the gift he and ropes and Shadow Concerned Frown Utah Rhode Island Breath taking the cop he nodded and smiled at the group then reached Luton side and put a hand on his shoulder. I needn't tell you what is lost oh long looking for your place in the wild said Luton some people never find it it's been the honor of my life the time tales and grinning they swallowed their warm wind from that paper cups and began to applaud winded printed on the spine embossed gold leaf for the words cat people slowly he looked up at them feel library submit to me you believed in me when the whole while didn't who gave me another chance you gave me a level playing field L. chipped in San Verna open it impatiently. They watched as he fumbled with the not holding their breaths. Anticipation finally the binding unhurried Boris Karloff clutching beneath his arm scrap package tied with string. I'm so sorry Belaid I hurried here as foss could manage blasted pile on co-anchor Boris Luton said Barsky you didn't have to know since college he swept back the Leopard man the seventh victim the ghost all the way down to the bottom which bore the name Bedlam Erase at Gordon's more magic in that pile than in the whole Smithsonian Luton Open the volume and beheld his words in the words of body eleven scripts eleven stories formed in his dreams brought to live refined and perfected by the people before it back into the outer office and returned with the square package bashful he held it out to Luton who placed it on his desk and began to untie the string bound Oh free and paper was open to reveal a stack of eleven leather volumes Luton frowned at them and smiled gaffney he picked up the first exam honestly confirming his I'm so proud of his Hooton said they raise their cups to their lips the outer door opened and given to the wild the sum total of this funny family endeavor that had meant so much to him from your gene printed a neat Black Korea on pages as fine and delicate the Bible's upon the spine of the next names the names I walked with Zombie it's three PM Luton called today the cups was still wet in folded it and placed it in the center vacant desk in the Outer Office verner was putting on her coat checking anyway this isn't good by not by a long shot Khalaf said I fully expect to find myself employed by within the yeah or I'll see to it the jets box Luton took around and let her to the door they walked through the whole out round to the left brought to us and back again gross gets a job at paramount the gift said Philip MacDonald Gift Cold Wise of course of course said Kana he data set they reach Luton's then I want you to know something I talked to the paramount's office chicken supreme and Ray was right what are they gonNA do fire him for leaving early as he made to leave he opened his bottom drawer. I'm driving out to see my brother this weekend but I said no I meant as of Monday vanish rock secretaries democratic fashion in Hollywood bill that I want you to know though that I tried thank you but in the end today you made it very special for me and don't know how she said with the blush don't sell yourself short he said you know me better than most so I wanted to know if I could bring all of you with me vanish look ahead and held up a hand you don't have to do I thought they jump at the chance van I mean what inclined into the car and started the engine Monday morning he said New Chapter I'll think it over. She said raising an eyebrow eighteen we've been she put a hand on his chest and smiled then leaned up and kissed him on the cheek sweet band bow it's been side she slammed the script shot and surveyed the names of on the front my own true love by Joseph Michelle and Theodore Strauss array of you he watched a she way then law and blew him a case who wrote this junk Phyllis Calvert glared around the crew watched as their eyes fell downward glanced from side to side weekly you're GonNa have to do something about this line she said it's not working Michelle opened his script placed his glasses onto his nose and ran a finger Dan the growing she looked up at him and began to cry he took a hand smile so if you know anyone age the line is I've been worried for months now minutes moments and months that will never return to me it might look good on paper but she read looking at once more here slowly a small dock man eased himself off his stool and held up a nervous hand Joseph Michelle he said Trashcan along with the t crate the eleven led the volumes of his arc ao work were loaded into the front seat of the Buick Ruth The coal to say that dinner was mini any good all I'm looking for is basic competence Gardiner's I'd like to know what that feels like verner reach down and open his car door you betta drive away before we began with a fairly entertaining novel which was then turned into an efficient and entertaining scripts by Mr Michel and Mr Strauss that was over year I might've known you'd have an issue Mr Luton funny he said those were my thoughts when you began speaking if my services are so recount for the past twelve months the buffoons who run this place have savaged every last shred of invention from its pages what began as -pletely devoid of subtlety imagination and so and yet every single word within its pages was the subject of a battle it was revised I've been producer at paramount studios now for eighteen months in that time I have managed to get one project off the ground this call me crazy I'm a believer in working for my salary if that was so then why did you approve so bland a line of Dialogue Miss Calvert sounds preposterous out loud Michelle found the line and mused upon it from a bigger pardon came voice from beyond them but what makes you think struck out put back shortened rephrased redressed and rewritten before moving onto the next. If you think for one moment that I'm willing to give anymore aw and took out the dog puke tie reuss didn't even want it in the house and there seemed little use for it anymore Kathy Lee around on this already unrecognizable horror to satisfy the whim of an actress whose tongue seems unable to cut its way around the Tamest of alliteration the only person they'd let me bring over was it secretary Verna for Luton shrugged I guess the people you know I'd rather have warm wine in paper Cups Than Cognac in crystal think alike paramount he shrugged unlike the fresh start beautiful and rather poignant romance has slowly and painfully being turned into the monstrosity you hold in your hand a story almost you're free to go changing lines in the script Phyllis Calvert held a hand up against the light and look towards the source of the Voice of course she side God I feel better I feel like I'm stronger old roofs doing she said the rest for six months and it worked he's good and there's Luton watched after the assembled is of the crew gradually began to turn towards him and he knew that this time he was agreeable to you then I suggest you remove yourself from the set she snapped yeah that's generally the way things are done around here Luton's Ad but must be shorter them they said I can bring secretary with me to provide a sense of continuity I think the golden someone who knows how I want someone who can help me early in trouble the problems at paramount begun almost immediately buddy to silver the square draws in her desk one time she patted pockets and not at us out what will you do now do Shinka Latinas Act my own true love and who insisted upon countless rewrites budget drops and approvals before consenting to let Luton make the calling me okay that was kind of weird Luton Brendan pulled the garwe throwing a hand out of the window to wave goodbye in the Adamy award for best director and Ginsburg a nomination for best picture it was primarily gins back who just couldn't see the potential in Luton's God is always some tyrant Wanna let her dictated she picked up a handbag looked around at the room got dammit I was just getting used to this lose watts laughter by lady like the main Verner Matz Grin how could you have ever supposed that I could do without you across to where the cards were stacked without meeting another saul first and last time ever thank you runner said Luton coach Stevens Ironically Nineteen fifty-six Ginsburg would produce Steven Seminal hit giant starring James Dean a movie that Win Stevens the Ginsberg's guts and dubbed him the expedited among the many dozens of people Ginsburg at five at the Howard studios was famed directed and then you are sorely mistaken the eyes of the crew remained fixed on the floor a hundred is maybe all trained at featureless concrete badly the man who'd hide Luton had left no more than a month after Luton had arrived and was replaced by Henry Ginsburg a man with a loathsome reputation as Hollywood's hatchet man was thirty thousand dollars a day by day three the absence of fitness calvet Anita's the added almost one hundred thousand dollars to the already stretched an known for slashing projects ribbons if they were too expensive or not commercially viable enough nineteen thirty one to nineteen thirty six complete authority over the script including any revisions she deemed appropriate. This order was non-negotiable Andrew Wide No reply on loosens part writing then Mr Ginsburg would take a look at it when he got a free moment Lieutenant Verna spent the often drafting polite but firm memo further on the script and had marched off the set declaring that she wouldn't be back until she got her own way needing to bring the film in under Berg had acted as the general manager of the how Roach Studios and created such an atmosphere of doubt and fear among the creatives there that Stan Laurel who hated in discussion with both script writers loudly revising many sections of the script that she was unhappy with despite their week cries of protest when budget Verna attempted to make an appointment with Ginsberg on Luton's behalf but was told that there was nothing available for fortnight however if Luton sent along his concerns in under of the shoot a painful ordeal for everyone involved Luton found himself seated with Joseph Michelle and Theodore Krause beneath the camera helping them to rewrite Johny Luton's office was contacted by his cowboy boots agent who'd spent the last few hours in discussion with Ginsberg himself as of this moment miscavige was in order to appease Ginsburg Luton was suddenly faced with a film production the could not function without its star the cost of simply having the crew wait around softly for that was the only word for it calvet placed the script down prop chair without so much as the sound and then turned and walked from this ad so in short miscavige was the boss now and Luton Moss to behave himself or risk reprisals the following day he reported to the set actually left archaic at precisely the right time the record breaking audience numbers of nineteen forty six nineteen forty-seven evaporated the British government he get to promote and grow its own homegrown movie industry imposed the seventy five rather slow working producer who derived from some other studio and who'd had a few hits for them once and yet despite this vow Luton had things into alleged communist propaganda and influence in the Hollywood industry by the House Committee on un-american activities otherwise known as hugh he and several months that it had taken Luton to get the project even this fire have been the most trying of his career so far next to Ginsburg Jack Gross said the result of these hearings had led to the public shaming of the so called Hollywood ten a group of individuals who refused to answer questions about their alleged involvement with the communist reshape the script each time the Phyllis Calvert called a halt to the unhappy proceedings the money was better than Daca but the situation requesting the GINSBURG use his influence with Phyllis Calvert to persuade her to return to work however even as the request was being loaded into an envelope and prepared for it Israel and Lou Australia were like the three stooges and now the film star Phyllis Calvert and taken against Luton's refusal to Jenny Asian was sadly not in fact the only thing Luton seemed to achieve by making the move paramount was a demotion in the studio pecking order here he was nothing more rush studios he suddenly so ra boom in their output but caused the dramatic dropoff in revenues for foreign studios other European countries soon followed Britain for example in the hopes of boosting their entertainment industries to make things worse nineteen forty seven at C. Nine days of hearing annable through the gloom of the darkened studio all is except for the two belonging to Phyllis Calvert which seemed to glow hatred at his own to tempted to join them meeting to gain an understanding of the changes made he was some early dismissed and told that he would receive his new script into you calls for the removal percents tax on films produced abroad meaning that it was suddenly too expensive to book Hollywood movies for many theater owners that this was wonderful for Brit talk to him via so no I can put you through Sarah is no okay well thank you thank you yes goodbye she plays the phone down on the cradle potty these ten people were cited for contempt of Congress and blacklisted by the Hollywood industry off these ten producer Scott and director Edward Dmitri were two of Cao's leading creatives to comply with the growing pressure to blacklist communists in stablemates arcade critical affiliations of every remaining employees anyone with communist connections or leanings was thrown to the dogs by this time to five hundred thousand dollars a staggering drop of ninety percent in profitability from which it would never recover the Hollywood studio system entire Hollywood's troubles with the Supreme Court had never gone away on it but running a studio was decidedly different to buying one taking personal charge of the studios running Hughes you to the European import tax and now Cao's name was constantly being mentioned when it came to talk of communist influence in ear was instantly revised just nine a year Dorey Sherry along with several other high profile produces quit in protest krona's unless they rented them in blocks in some cases one hundred four movies at the time sharing to power week for an entire year this man that was all of the major studios have begun to see a decline in that province twentieth century Fox's were down by eleven percent mgm was down by huge six bounce the studio's main stockholder Floyd Ozlem who'd already sold off a huge portion of his shares when the Supreme Court had ruled against the studio in the antitrust case ads paramount's founder at of Zuko had perfected the practice all the way back in the twenties when he would refuse to lease his highly sought after movies the theater eighty two percent but the dock ao once one of the most reliable and profitable collectives in Hollywood profits were down from five point one million dollars the first few weeks firing of a seven hundred studio employees Cao's production slate which had been running at full powder and producing almost one hundred features audience numbers were down Cao's b-movie division long its main source of income was suddenly non-profitable now decided that he's money would be safer elsewhere and sold off the entirety of his interests that the man who bought them in nineteen forty eight familiar faces and made on shoestring budgets because they were essentially paying to rent these films without knowing what they were until they arrived in their cans even the since the antitrust case there Commons target was the long established practice of block booking a method of selling movies that Hollywood have been forcing upon theater owners for decades I'm not among the handful of hits he produced were nineteen ninety-one the front page nineteen thirties hells angels and nineteen thirty two's scoffing aw ironically it was paramount vow Luton's new home that would put the final nail in the coffin of not just our Ko to compound matters Hughes closed down the studios operations for six entire months so as to conduct lengthy and intrusive investigation into the independent did as did get the a product big-name attractions at paramount and the others were making they will also lumbered with a countless number of cheap production starring was Howard Hughes the aviation tycoon and occasional movie producer who hat since one thousand nine hundred eighty six being trying to establish himself in Hollywood as producer of deepest and most woeful films was still making a profit as Tino Belli wrote in his nineteen ninety-three Book Grand Design knowing that even the poorest picture would find an outlet the studios could operate at full capacity in the process the majors shifted the risks of production financing to the independent exhibitor. He's but he's main am vision was to one day own a powerhouse of his own by purchasing a controlling interest in one of Hollywood's largest studios he'd finally stacked through block booking two years of arguments lead to studios agreeing to limit the amount of films could be blocked booked to five at a time in short block booking allowed the majors to wrest the greatest amount of prophets from the market place in one thousand nine hundred eighty eight the justice opened filed a suit against Hollywood named the United States versus Paramount Pictures Inc at how charging old major studios with violating the Sherman antitrust. It still wasn't enough for years the case was dragged to gain the gains with the courts with the Justice Department doing their best to argue that the only way to ensure came to being sold for exhibition what is meant was that if a movie was no good then it wouldn't buy them Hollywood selloff their own chains of the frenzied studio heads went straight to the legal departments and demanded action the consequences of the Hollywood studios were huge tax payers huge employers goodwill was on the studio side even high court judges went to the movies suddenly panicked but also safe in the knowledge that they owned the services of the best lawyers in the land in nineteen forty eight the case was Fantas was for the major studios sell off their own chains of theaters thereby ensuring that every film made in Hollywood would have to stand on its own merits decided once and for all why the Supreme Court of America who ruled against the Hollywood studios block booking became illegal and the studios were instructed happen I thought they could spend years picking through the technicalities the court could order anything at liked but it had a responsibility to make sure that was done properly Supreme Court's ruling Goodman a paradigm shift in the way that Hollywood worked but the lawyers told the bosses to keep cool nothing was gone all this situation required was a little handling by men who knew how to handle things wheels could be greased all the lawyers had to do was begin the declining quality realistically the only way that the Supreme Court could force through the ruling was if they could prove otherwise and equal footing with their competitors why not solve the problem the other way round in perhaps the most audacious power placing thus okay who owned the fewest and so did not have that luxury it was this conundrum in fact that Howard Hughes being presented with as his main obstacle named an industry just relax this was all going to be okay you're sure positively you just take yourself a drink in ton down the blood pressure selling off their theater chain this gamble was monumental in front of the world and to the horror of the other major it is they're going to have to prove it won't kill US financially and we can spend years telling them what will the argument had merit lawyer then Howard Hughes happen of all the major studios OC EO had the smallest theater as for the major studios passionately made the case the loss of the theater chains could badly injured prophets which could in turn into mass unemployment and a drastic are in Hollywood Howard Hughes approach the Supreme Court and the Justice Department and offered voluntarily to go along with their court ruling and break up his own company that selling off their privately owned the chains would prove ruinous no court in the land had the right to purposefully ruin so benevolent and a St alty instead of quantity but he had failed to foresee the entire future by the early fifties television was fast becoming uses began to gain more power in the industry as their films could be sold with the same ease the movie houses who are no longer tied to studios movie employees that movie making factories with no theater chains may have looked good on paper without guaranteed box his admissions each studio had to concentrate on and the studio was running on few the end of the year during an interview the actor Dick Powell joked that ARC EOS contract list is down to three radio's Howard Hughes declare that Arcadia was spitting it's theater chain off to be sold to whoever wanted to pay for and if he could do back then so could the other in the face of this decision the studios had no choice but rain mgm in Panama could send out any of them movies to death thousands of movie houses and because of how many they owned could guarantee a healthy profit each time shirts like I said all we have to do is show the courts that this action will be ruinous to our company if they want us to sell off our national chain of movie follow suit by February nineteen forty nine paramount was out of the occupants and broke its company up daca within Orien- bette Lasky described it Howard Hughes time at Keio is nothing more than a systematic seven year it was not on his side the studio was hemorrhaging money and talent many of those not fired by Hughes during his six month long investigations into Oh to true success upon acquiring studio and suddenly the onset had become clear instead of buying up new theaters the ARC AOL and the most popular form of entertainment Hollywood saw audiences deserting them in their millions so as to enjoy shows in their own homes independent next room and the next Hollywood was far less Arcadian than he'd imagined no one dreamed in Texas but we're not quite yet releases which had long been a cash cow for Hollywood studios and their own data's were suddenly dead production slate were cuts to no more than a dozen the side chopping the company into many different divisions as possible and selling of everything he didn't understand or see the immediate benefit off as also year leading to huge unemployment a doc decay was irreversible while Hughes had won his power play goodwill for decades the other majors were out of excuses to and were forced to do the CY uses plan to reduce all the Hollywood studios anjem Studios AG hated leaving New York Greenwich Village was the kind of place the like a lamp right above the place day and night yes even in the middle of the night you still got sunburn like a son of a bitch what this place needed was a good New York family drifted past him as he walked down to the next room on the corner with the good drinks and the clouds of Music Sarah and then down to the actors and one hundred twenty seven lawyers having acquired the studio Hughes tenure there seemed little more than a fire sale throwing its finest assets Hughes had succeeded in leveling the playing field but in the aftermath of his play for power had also comes in okay oh communism were discussed it enough by his actions to quit and find homes elsewhere in one thousand nine hundred eighty two Cao's nets loss was ten million dollars onto the frugal seat of a golf cart and shuttled through miles of symmetrical buildings past flashes of Gruff Labor smoking thin cigarettes and carrying piles breath the studio system along with it the end of the golden age of Hollywood asphalt jungle were shooting one of the outdoor sets today ag spend the next few hours trailing it's director John Huston as he turned three pages of script into several dozen shots each meticulously constructed and crafted while Houston drawl to ag about his beliefs envisions agee's finished piece undirected Directa which would appear in September nineteen fifty edition of life magazine would prove to be one of the twentieth century's richest and most influential in up Piper AG hadn't seen sites this random since the night he'd fall off the wagon master some the movie he'd come to snoop around of sequined ballgowns a sudden had of small white dogs the dipped and dotted line shows a face pasta doesn't also brunettes and New York smog to give a man a little relief allowing breathe a little the tour was the same old thing eighty was loew's INC MGM's parent company who needed a man who knew how to make hit the current head of the studio Louis B. Mayer was deep into his back in nineteen forty nine during the time all of Howard Hughes first year as King of Arcadia studios and some time after Phyllis Calvert had seen getting suits and stood in the perfect line on a hill past two young men wearing spectacles and zoot suits kicking between themselves a makeshift bowl may have screwed insights into a Hollywood creative of goals part of the deal was writing at the studio to the guys in publicity always had a stolid to mention always had great vowel Luton would never again be respected at paramount the film critic novelist poet and screenwriter James Agee was being given the five dollar tour of the kind of here it was all dollar bills the callers with sweat rings and it was terribly flat not like New York the highest building here was forced sixties and no longer recognized the world he was trying to entertain Sherry had already assumed dominance over there and was being openly declared I found like another room in his own home step out of the hole and onto this data and algae went to the concrete garden or the taxicabs grew and where his facility to show off half the time they wanted to write the thing for you but there was one of the ag just couldn't pass up and that was a meeting with their newly hired abrupt end Jerry had grit almost as soon as Howard Hughes it started going crazy and being instantly snapped up by perhaps the smallest executive office he'd ever visited they spoke briefly about New York about the paramount decree about the mess happening over he's stumping little things the whole place seem designed so that you could still see the hills behind it but the real bugbear with aging was the son Okay oh onto hughes their favorite movies of the past six months and about Sheri's vision for the future of MGM Sherry was way more switched on than most unlike many of the studio heads he'd Matt Cherry New agey was he warmly shook his hand and showed him to a seat walk out of his office and onto a red carpet which was lined with star staff and executives who applauded him he buys the actor retirement by the lows board who wanted Sheri to become the undisputed ruler of perhaps Hollywood's most golden kingdom on May as last day there Sherry smile who did I miss well of course said ag you have one of the three greatest movie makers this country has ever produced under contract now had vice president in charge of production Dorey Sherry a man who just couldn't stop lighting Hollywood up like a firecracker even though he's rain at Keio would come to me enroll in the sequel to Mrs Minova he even managed to talk fred astaire ginger Rogers into teaming up one more time for the Buckley's of Broadway Fair to bean sherry raised his eyebrows. I'm really looking forward to seeing what he does for you I'm sorry said Cherry who do you mean to start with Judy Garland but she was unavailable something wrong with her Sherry Mate reply and then shook his head ag and duties at MGM will probably be have a wholesale clean out sometime in September he's already assigned me to a story of his own devising it's a shame it stinks so bad the town bay who was among those who turned out to wish him goodbye later referred to mayors exit is in every meaningful way the day that Hollywood ended but if I work hard enough at it then I feel that it might be a big success will forever still the rumor that I can only do horror movies come in did not press the point well the role impressive names Mr Sherry should be very proud we are we think we have enough stop however here to keep the lights on all deep into production as were James Stewart Katherine Hepburn and Spencer Tracy Jerry had just agreed a contract with greer Garson to reprise her Oscar he's at MGM as opposed I'm very lucky to have got myself hired a such a drastically reduced salary Dorey Sheri who's arrived to take over the production it seemed to come more from a creative side than a business one ag liked him especially when he mentioned that he was way more interested in movies with a social conscience his crisp color his hair was sleek and piano black upon his face lay the ghost of a smile was it a smack Luton hadn't quite league greatest movie makers in the world right now well I that was nice of him at 'em really know what to say Okay Oh is practically slows down universal is on the verge of bankruptcy and has cut down to less than a third of its usual staff the only place where there seems to be any hope whatsoever really had a chance to talk since last month Luton surveyed the no man's land of notes before him so long as Sherri didn't read the thing he was fairly sure he recalled a filing system Dan after hearing him wax lyrical I must say so my thought you might also like to know that Mr AG regards you as one of the three adas may as successor by the subjects of the Kingdom beneath them. This prophecy would prove painfully true from there in two years time when he was forced to finally they got to the talent roster John Huston was downstairs shooting the asphalt jungle Sam word George Kuchar and Gene Kelly were Said Luton I I think it's wonderful I guess I'm not used to working in this genre so I wanna take my time I wanna get it right sharing yeah I gave you I'm walking on it Luton's Mild Cherry let the words hang on the air you not a fan of the story oh no Asians really was it interesting you know he called you out by name said he was most excited about what you're going to be doing ah yes everyone here seems busy well I guess that's because they're all getting things done Luton suddenly wished he hadn't him he was currently using Sherry took the seat before him his suit was the color of brushed steal the tie was violet silk not dead center there's an animal trainers writers lots of writers I hear you Mr Sharon you made some pretty beautiful movies over at Keio thought figured him out yet but against this vision of intelligent elegance Luton felt like a Ham Hawk wearing a shot old good here I'm still finding my fee cherries head tilt slightly one side and then as his eyes looked him up and down the oldest leads me to wonder if you're almost finished on the script for the story one of the greatest movie makers in Hollywood he's at Ag says so and here you are writing comedies for me on the third floor left tie on the CEO desk real reason I came though said Cherry I just had the pleasure of meeting Mr James Ag of the nation and other fine bubbly falstaff had something to say I admire that maybe you'll get there again someday but for now it's all about doing the work and as the other studios struggle to pay the bill of course you also recently acquired the services of a set man here that I'm very excited about a really didn't glanced up to see Dorje sharing doorway smiling broadly pardon the intrusion said Sherry I just thought I'd pop along and see how things going no we haven't not I mean Luton surveyed the notes before him vaguely they told the whimsical tale of an English Gal who inherits Texas ranch and while traveling ruth had the car that day Luton it arranged aw ruth was packed a couple of streets away she'd seen the MGM exodus before and had no desire to be stuck in Luton dropped into the passengers claim it is romanced by three men who may or may not be fortune hunters at Keio it would have been a sixty two minutes second feature he'd been looking at office was no longer a guaranteed home these days bashful he made through the door and into the card very good man that Jerry clapping the arms of the seat and making for the door wouldn't want you to get left behind he reached the door and turned back blubbing left behind lots of people going back east they've never been so many waiters and busboys in this town is there all right now yesterday they were editor DM Other and Lucy Hollywood is in a state blacks and the always hills behind five pm in the sun was still set midday he reached out with one finger and poll his acti- loose ruth later hand on his knee so a good day and do you ever wonder what kind of life we might have had if I was wouldn't change a thing she glanced over to see him looking at her she shrugged pullover said loosen she hesitated hyphen. I'm super proud of you I'm so proud of the things that you have made official for some time Levinson she's mild Luton leaned his head against the glass much the town flypast neon billboards and I I know it's not high art vow he said the Hollywood's changing every day that passes it's turning into someplace else lots of what followed him to MGM Butts Downtown to the smaller office of an investment bank lucan could hardly blame verner liked to nest and his in the five pm traffic he missed the sound of verner snapping open her person loading it with the cosmetic she'd arranged like soldiers on her desk she had impact on the cheek she pulled away how was your day Jostle I'm the greatest movie maker in the world apparently it's official it's been Helluva thing Luton waited until his footsteps disappeared however thing sky was beginning to China's Pink Punch Ball my life is a gift said Ruth I thank God for it every day attorney the gate at five pm he shuffled the notes into a tattered square stack place them in this case the office they'd given him lead straight out into the corridor real trying to snag the eyes of passes by but no one seemed to see him with effort he followed the crowd in baby steps until they spilled out onto the done anything to keep it all together I just couldn't stop pushing back I just couldn't stop having it all my own way a few dollars more every month being invited to sit in on some dead meeting about budget strategies lost he said I don't know breath the boy in the park with all the stories scared of CADs Dreamer Miss Them Ruth everyone and I know what you're thinking the she said you're wondering maybe if you'd played things differently if you let them have their way little they are beautiful extraordinary and each one is a sacred piece of yourself Batman John Said Ruth I wake some nights hoping you'll really clock gable she hooked right and joined the road that led toward the horizon and where the in street that ran through the studio lot and then followed the cattle as they snake their way toward the gate and the streetcars dogs and cabs for moment and then swung the car off towards the break in the road where families sometimes stopped take picnics he leaned over and pressed his lips against their cheek held maybe tipsy wouldn't bit her mother Father Valet and many finish the jumbled rendition of happy birthday and looked at in eighteen candles were going to require an entire lung full of air and she was short enough breath she should have told him the moment she'd stepped off the train if he'd been a good boy and let them roll over you then you'd have been given a parking spot a little closer to the main building that you gave to the wild forever how lucky you are given that chance he closed his eyes and that's he did a terrorist game I just fiesta so much more yet I see you said unfortunate tree best to wait until he was a little more peace she taught herself in some perfect union rest and good nature offer a glass of wine publicly fired the path despite one of their biggest hits of the year being the film noir crossfire directed by Dimitri and produced by Scott because you did Nina Luton regarded the inferno before it for weeks now and try as he might he simply could not fall in love with it wearily he looked at Gerry enforce the smile I'm on it Mr Ruth took his face and hands and held him until he's is met and I love you thousand times over again and the way it was and I hate myself for not realizing at the time just how lucky I was now maybe I should there have been several silences on the car ride home that would have been perfect but she had visions of her father suddenly clutching his chest in agony at a news and careering into I five I'm getting married she said at the limit of our breath she blew hard and watched his each candle died shattering eagerly come on blow him said her father Nina took a breath and held it that stead down at the white cream cheese frosting below the fart Jewish boy what has parents say Nina Shuffled in eight they say they say it's not okay it's Lieutenant Ruth glance that each other they said this to you they said it to both of us modestly say when they told you that but it's real I promise I need him she opened arise and watched her mother and father look at each other as though they'd age a decade they turned him out said Ruth where is he he lives over garage in the middle of town he works during the day he he saved Nina's eyes fixed around the room and then returned to the floor a what have either set Nina shrugged that rich when nation maybe he can do pretty much anything Nina Klausner is please she said I know you probably don't believe me. He regarded his daughter this strange skinny creature with is like corn flowers and hand like honey a girl who laughed like life depended it's not true said her mother Nina knotted they told you that they don't want him marrying a Catholic and especially not been shot by the girl he loves and yet he can't stop looking at stoned and all his is said will why Happy Birthday said Ruth what the hell are you talking about Nina looked up at her father he looked like someone in one of his movies a guy who's Nina watched her mother begin to smile his family rich crazy rich but you wouldn't know when he first asked me to go for dinner with him all my friends told me I could do better and when we all found out later that his parents own half of Wall Street some of the pretty girls tried to but he won't even look that way his name is Lee Nina said we met upstate everyone thinks he's weird because he's quiet walking in the evenings around campus he trips on it and so kind so unconditionally kind how could that be anyone in the whole while incapable of loving this very very big earthquake Nina said wish granted said many she turned on her heel and may toward the kitchen say something Nina said over his own shoes now and then I've never seen him angry I love the way his cheeks go read when he smiles read like tomato is prettier than your kid Luton said he's got a great future said Nina he just graduated from college with a degree in mechanical engineering he's going to work uh he told him that I meant more to him than anything in the wild they didn't like it and so we had to lead it's a lot and your age of either said no that's not it said Nina they just they don't like me I should in a single moment stupid moment she said the hassle stupid stupid moment what is signing said Ruth Druckman being money Nina looked slowly but her mother he smiled despite the tear at the sides of her is slowly they both turn to Luton Ledra c'mon was as Nina described small this remarkable sounding young man of yours Nina looked up after all he said it's your birthday you should always spend make Rooney he did not know Betty grable he did not know bing crosby he did not know gregory pack he did not details Muren pictures which was answered by a brief affirmative and never again revisited Luton lacked the fact this boy was awkward finger between questions reminded Luton lot of the way heaves the drama and his knee at job interviews in his youth refreshingly Lee knew little about movies one of Luton's least favorite pastimes was attending parties at which he will be surrounded by young people and forced to repeat over and over that he did not know table vowed junior tugged on his mother's arm and nodded toward the still smoldering cake later said Ruth every minute of every day as the sunset file Lee and Nina and vowed union walks down to the beach birthday with the people you love the most Nina's Ds game five she pushed away how chair and threw her arms around her father on the other side with all their baps we should go for a drive Dupont said okay that perhaps we should go get all happy is set deep within kind bashful phase he liked to fumble a lot with his hands nervous time the way he pulled a little on his how each time she caught him looking at his cheeks would turn pink as a Bali Lipa he falls in love with her all over again Luton sat himself silence fell stay the way they gazed at his daughter as though she were the most curious most wondrously fascinating creature on the air little better than some studio janitor who gotten their hopes up for nothing but Lee Druckman Line of questioning rant and nothing more probing than Amir uncanny route said what is it about the Luton try but rankles with the high and mighty no one likes it when an angel falls from heaven the smile many Times said Ruth it's the same way you used to look at me when we were that age your parents were rich assholes too announcement was made before Lee put on an apron and dried the dishes with many he likes the way that lease is always returns to Nina when a inquiries were made into hiring outside caterers it was during the most peaceful sleep of his life that Luton was shaken awake by his wife each to kick around in the shallows Luton and ruth watched them walk down toward the gate at the end of the garden that children on either side of their visitor each holding a hand Mary would be the Luton's own house mini suddenly faced with catering and event that threatened to attract anywhere between fifty and one hundred people declared that she quit do you remember when that was US Ruth Lena head on his shoulder it's still us thing bad what have we missed he said apparently could not wait until the morning to inquire as to how her husband would feel about the south facing living room wall coming down so as to expand the aspect of the reception loosen look at what happened to Lucifer you like him right Roussette again when did my daughter disappear he said softly and wind Neria Luton would feel sick the north facing wall then baps so as to broaden the living dining area into one room seconds down and he can stay on the couch Luton said I can learn him a shot you lack him right said Ruth we seen the way he looks at Luton said the venue began as the local Episcopalian church followed by the beach followed by the town hall before Ruth and Nina absolutely decided that the only place in which the whether the wedding dress should be silk or Rayon simple Tiara or full veil white was too boring according to Nina perhaps something in Paul structural changes to his home and a sense of good health where not apparently bedfellows Sunday dinners only topic of conversation this woman take place as oppose it happened some time ago when she was far away from us do you feel all ancient he liked to the fact that a full hour was spent building blocks with volley let wendy clear the table after supper no fawning over loud uh for the next month's Nina's upcoming marriage to lead Druckman was the center of every moment in the Luton household a million different times when she grew up and we weren't there and he was said Ruth they watched as the three became on himself gazing blankly over to the hapless forever smiling face of Lee who watched the discussions with as much bemused fascination as Luton himself oppressing issue of wine for a party that was two months away the wine would have to be something local something imported something delicate something fizzy Snow Veronica Lake the look of admiration in there is dimming each time he chalked another name off the list until by the end the young people regarded him as Luton calmed her by telling the wedding would be a small affair with no more than twenty guests or is he likes to put it a largish dinner party no problem get him involved ruth did not want him involved Nina was adamant Ruth was adamant ruth was in fact impervious ruth cornered her husband at the Breakfast Table Vow I send out twenty one invitations to write a hand flew up if talking at three goals meal twenty people was no problem replied many then perhaps he would be inclined to perform the feat himself the following Chiffon something between bone and frost not so warm as parchment but not as bleak as daisy white at these conditions Luton View Val Luton it was difficult to feel anything but elation during this somewhat fraught period I thought you hated Paulette Honeymoon Verona or Paris you know the Pocono mountains in Pennsylvania supposed to be pretty cheap I mean romantic silhouettes and disappeared against the cinnamon evenings guy I like him very much unrivalled explosion of creativity as suddenly movies of inspired quality and the ingenuity born from the minds of new creatives began to find lighted having been invited by you and they're willing intention to attend our daughter's wedding Luton chewed slowly on his oatmeal come to think of it he had fashionable life following the landmark Supreme Court ruling against the major studios independent producers have begun to proliferate and thrive in the new on e Luton was unable to concentrate on his weekly helping the adventures of Sam Spade on radio who had time for the cartwright clip caper when there was the farmer Wednesdays these were stories allowed to come to life under fewer restrictions often they began with the writer producer who personally shepherded division through the in his life for not only was he about to hold the honor of becoming father the prettiest bride in this date but it was also at this time that the light of hope returned to his Lieutenant Lee Somewhat seasick is to gain this time to widen in horror the donkey will be taken to a neighbor's meadow and let loose to graze well Hollywood frontier it meant the end of many things most notably the power of the major studios over the cinema screens of America bidded also seen the birth when in a little generous with the invites couple of the older guys at the studio two or three guys from the cells neck days a Guy Oh two or three from the writing process the costing Russell's shooting editing and post production free from the many requirements and controls that came with working for students a dowry sure Madam Bovery we'll six horses and a country estate be enough matters game to something of a head when a month before the big day eating cake chocolate or Vanilla Vanilla Vanilla Lee wants me to tell you that he liked are we giving Leeann Nina Dowry Bring these very feelings and ambitions we're Robert Wise and Mark Robson its name was it clutch between its fingers a Sheaf of papers explain them she continued why did that so far I have received over seventy letters each stating more qualified than their mental vow Luton Lee raise the thumb in agreement and leaned his ear a little closer to the radio the music phonograph records or should they hire a band something read something white Jesus Christ Luton Groaned Leeann I can make Jin in a bathtub no-one Caz after the first loss anyway the studios and those who long ago become disillusioned by the studios way of doing things and who wished for greater control and two men who had long been independent production companies began to flourish generally headed by two types of people those who've been searching for a way into the movie business but who've been denied independent producing unit and so it was that after three years in the wilderness vow Luton felt scene wow this was the dream just us together dreaming up stories and making them happen with no one to crush it I can't believe it they want to be Aspen Production Robert Wise it scored a huge hit with his first APEC Arcadio the psychological Western suspense a set in the world of boxing champion Zarin Douglas feeling that their reputations were becoming something of a draw and noting the success of other watt it's just it's so important I keep pinching myself it's crazy this is it we always talked about an entire day sailing was spent on a single point of contention the donkey would have to go somewhere else for the day but Nina Bite his blackest concerns life it seemed was not through with him yet light still existed in his future both men long to create films that meant something to this still nervous wild strangely newborn after the horrors of the Second World War and still in search of an identity independence wise and ropes had decided to break away from the hold of the studios and fulfill a long held dream to create their own production company Suhaila Blood on the Moon starring Robert Mitchum and Barbara bound getty's while ropes and had been catapulted onto the list of Hollywood directors with his film noir look at me her face was pink from the morning air and let somehow by the joy in her eyes I want you to know how proud I am if you did we it's not a job interview Russo leaning on the car roof and smiling at him through the open window these are your friends I know he shrugged around the face the way he did himself these days he'd never seen him so happy so wow success suited them the side of his actors they were equally assured that any production of home which they embarked would also need the guiding hand of a producer and both men knew of no man we don't have room for hours roses or tulips no it has to be renewed what the hell is Ronan Bridesmaids paulette would judy proteges mark and Bob have made enormous successes and they want to work with me gain due to their great success the plan is to see if we can't organize some sort of friends filled with such joy and the feeling that after all this time he'd somehow returned home again was almost too much for his heart there he is mm productions was held onto coach tweet couches in the study at rope since house on Saturday Luton enter find them both laughing at the punchline of some joke you never stop believing you never stop getting out there trying winning losing doesn't matter you always get back up and do your best uh laughing and the years had suddenly disappeared they were a family one small and Aspen productions had been born rain producer with wise and ropes and as associate producers it will be their job to dream the stories into life and Luton job to handle the practicalities ofttimes out what she said he held out his hand which quiver despite in town she smiled and took it do me a favor into screen wise ropes and were of course to be the company's directors both responsible for the artistic vision of each movie Luton was to be the units they're doing so the budgets cost story consultancy productions script revisions Luton's was to be the steadying hand upon the sleep there means will be minuscule they spent the afternoon working out the little things while barbecued on the patio over grilled I go I'm so proud of you you deserve this you really do I love you he said and then potential distributors United Artists seemed most likely the son had grazed `skin read an each was blissfully filled with optimism grinned robeson would you look at this Luton took the hands gripped them put his arms around the both and before they knew it they were holding each other the one bright spot on my professional horizon at the moment Luton wrote to his mother in the letter the time is the fact that my two directory Hilla the voice of both reason and solution there was no man in Hollywood more experienced in getting so much out of so little and in the early days is to stay they drifted back to the oatmeal couches inside the ties and jackets have been lost some time ago over a few rounds of Pinochle where they each offered their thoughts are the lucky ones they're lucky to have you they are the lucky people in the wild and I should know because upon his screen the holy mess of movies and nights before his typewriter in the company of words always he was truly happy for the next few weeks at MGM concentrate beautiful intoxicating thrilling words that grew from his blood and out to the page beyond and for the first time since Bedlam promise me one thing promised me that no matter how lucky you feel that this is happening view that you won't forget that you earned this and they all three had full-time jobs with other studios other projects that were paying the bills the important thing was finding the right story and notching it old away from me of new ways to look at side but while Robeson and wise were by now fairly sure if that talent is writers editors and Oth dressed to the nines in dark jackets and ties ropes and spectacles when you could tell and he was wearing made his hat wise looked a little fuller wise and Luton talked about the possibility of each man editing the others finished real that's ten with the sun finally no longer able to make excuses been productions would be born and everything would be okay it was just a matter of holding out and holding on Aspen O corresponding with ruth regarding Nina's upcoming wedding some days pass without him talking to another living soul in the office he would merely arrived nope and a to be a headache from the team before drifted along the coast road toward home dreaming already of miraculous story in the plan was Aspen to begin small they were in no rush living at his Solis Twelve by twelve office each morning to apparently work on Sherry's story idea but in reality spending his entire day either working on perspective story ideas his desk take off his jacket despite the occasional breaks for coffee work for sometimes nine hours straight on heavily detailed multi-page story treatments for everything he had was being given to his family and his passion project with Wise Robeson funny he told himself the MGM should be paying the Price Ailing Club my daughter is getting married and even mean the well to us if he showed your face I for simple folk I remember he's a big paper map of the country and the Pala hanging on the wall above the little bookcase my dad and is the memorize the state mm-hmm good food is the author by the time Luton left them in the small hours of Sunday his mind was a helter skelter blend of excitement and happiness and my dad was a meatpacker out of Connersville fat back of a river in Indiana apparently we always live pretty well thing was difficult Dorey Sherry for his pot seemed largely to have forgotten once more at Luton even existed and thankfully this strange existence continued Luton his years of disillusionment to Hollywood and its hierarchy and the ad if he could just hold out a little longer than Nina would be married me he grinned and then began to La he patted the steering wheel and shook his head you're so cute sometimes Levinson she's Mile Hey on into martyrs they talked about the company logo to cold beers each sold them through a discussion on office rental as Robeson time to rump rose above the hissing charcoal in these dates racial discrimination is not just permitted but enforceable by law and the blue said Luton no laws either way aspen productions occasionally breaking away to chat as wife regarding caterers bells dress fittings will napkin college it was an uneven existence skeleton planet the country in black and white most states near the bottom were shaded and read a scattering of Western states as well as those in the furthest eastern Corner Northeast all the way to New York in these dates racial discrimination is against the law he swept a hand across the states shaded in red and the Jones family and you know what happened eighteen eighty three associate justice Joseph p Bradley argues that being a racist and despite his own personal happiness at the time Lebron was struck by a deep sense of almost guilt weekly he paid the bills with MGM's money and yet creatively bull street lots of bitterness in our town lot of anger we probably had more reason to hold a grudge against America than most Robert Weisman to my brain hide there's no better way to spend your time than being proud way live he used to say and then the depression hit us in the stomach and we got real shen public transport theaters for God's sake let's give everyone a damn chance Congress let's treat everyone as though they have a right to as much happiness bedroom floor until we got poor and it was all the fault of the east the rich guys who've been playing hooky when they had been playing smart suddenly we'd Haida Places Grimmett you can refuse to employ someone because their face isn't as Pale as your so you can legally tell a hungry black family with money chain put the large score of paper on the desk before them and pushed it open with both hands Luton and ropes and looks down to see a simple anyth- that crime of law look at this again why slap the map how can we be proud of that we go off to Europe to fight in seventy five congress passed the Civil Rights Act which entitled everyone no matter what the color of their skin the equal and fair rights to access accommodation is every American's God given right and wins the civil rights act gets over time and one of a sudden it's fine the segregate too shaded in blue the remainder had been left black. What are you see said wise while I'm assuming there are a lot of communist in the south at Luton why is that that means that common sense only prevails in less than half of this country and we call ourselves the land of the free do you know that i