19 Episode results for "Last Week Of February"

News AF | Jif Gif Peanut Butter Battle is News AF | Feb 25, 2020

Rob Has a Podcast

58:22 min | 1 year ago

News AF | Jif Gif Peanut Butter Battle is News AF | Feb 25, 2020

"So check this out. I got word that Hulu through this crazy party in Beverly Hills with literally all in the biggest reality TV stars. I'm talking about all the Bravo. Lips Candy Barris Porsche Williams. James Kennedy. Jack's Taylor even Captain Lee End K chastain. Here's the genius part. If you want to find out what happened at the party you have to watch the commercials. Yes I know I'll be tuning in and then signing up for a free trial to get my favorite reality. Tv SHOWS AT HULU DOT COM. Hey everybody wants to non. I'm Rob Cicirino back here once again with you about the week's most interesting news stories for the last week of February twenty twenty here on news af it or use. It wasn't like it's about to be the same movement. Whose makes you put to death. It's time for some news of the actual factual news is here to talk about all the stories that were submitted to us by our news. A F- listeners. And then also the stories we uncovered on our own in here to talk with us a man who can tell you what the first class horse lady is thinking. At any given moment please welcome the Great Tyson. Apostol ties now are you. I'm doing so good dude and Yeah I mean a lot of people are pretty stoked on my horse lady character and have to say that All I do too characters I just think what would a lady that's demands to bring a miniature horse on all her flights with her be thinking and saying at all times and then I just close my eyes and getting that character and I don't even a lot of times know what I'm saying because I'm just so overtook by the spirit of this woman. Does the spirit airlines of this woman so Tyson? How you've been asked for people to are they. People Buying Cameos Ask Oh yeah. That's where I can be the Horse Lady. Yeah that's nobody's bought a horse lake cabin yet. But I will do a horse lady impression for any cameo purchasers. Yeah and Yeah federal heads. It's forty five on twitter. We need an update on Thai. Tyson's a scientific experiment or you're doing a scientific experiment. Yeah so what is it. Somebody on twitter one of my Beloved followers on twitter wrote that. Just think if everyone who loves Tyson sentiment dollar he could continue to have to work again. Yeah so then I re tweeted it and wrote. This would be a really cool experiment. Let's do it for science and then dollar at five thirty in the morning young people have been sending me dollars. Yeah on Van. Mo- it's been a pretty steady stream enough to it's the trickle. Now it's now a trickle. It was a steady stream for like a couple hours. And now it's a trickle and still fun it's fun. I haven't decided what I'm going to do for the fans with the Prophet. I'm not keeping it for myself so I have not decided. I don't know I need suggestions. Yeah maybe giant tramps stand you. What would it say? Science Science Experience put science here. So how is it a science experiment? Did you have a hypothesis? If tweet this out. We'll say yeah. I followed the scientific formula to yeah. I don't know how science but comparing it to science made it fun for everyone to participate. Yeah and by the way I benefited from your science. 'cause like I said I got a random dollar from a very nice Tyson fan at about what say morning and you answered the question. It said if I'm giving Tyson a dollar might as well give Danny dollars. Well Yeah I was like what is going on here. What is doing late at night? You a dollar are so people are taller saying to science for Science for science. Well why don't you use the money's real science experiment that's a good idea. I did do a science experiment a while ago. But it wasn't very well documented and I will do it again or why. Don't you use the money towards a slot terrarium idea? This is what we've been waiting for funding for a slot terrarium idea but there's been so many Tyson. It's not idea funding money yet okay. It's not that big of a song. Bet It'll get there once. You hit the right person you know like you hit a Zuckerberg who's like. Oh I can give more than I can give a million dollars to this guy who's done nothing but bad mouth me. Some people have given me two dollars because they know that there are some anti-science people out there and for those people that are making their picking up the slack which is A. That's good citizen right there. Okay well we have not even formerly introduced the yet a man who's one dollar richer since he started this podcast. Dante brass least at least just don't let my wife know that I've made a dollar because she'll she's she's probably listening live and she's out there. Spending as we speak no no not spending. I would never say that she was that kind of person hoarding Forte. She likes money more than the goods. That can purchase yes. Yeah she's like Scrooge mcduck Scott that sell pool swimming in her money in gold coin. If I remember screws correctly he prefers swimming in coinage rather than paper. Money's maybe you should do a science experiment on whether or not you can actually dive headfirst into a thing of cool coins like mythbusters type of science thing. Do you remember how. High diving articulate ridiculous. It was like stories up. Dude that's day so you have to get all of the measurements. Make them real and then better idea into dive into it about this. How about we sued Disney for damages after we tried diving into a swimming pool gold? No like beavis and butthead don't disclaimer just figured nobody's going to have a whole building full of coins to dive in. Somebody's GonNa get there and that's going to be you know some hell to pay for Disney writing that in whoever the writer is maybe we'll have to take full responsibility. Okay all right. So Tyson is going to be working on constructing a real asset answer. I Yeah I know what my hypothesis is. If Tyson jumps into pile of coins then he will die. Bend Mo- Yes okay. Citing continues science. Let's see or for something. Miles paid me miles spence. Paid me a dollar for science okay. Mic and then this makes you a scientist to okay very respond to each one. Wow that's that's a lot of work. Is it for me like responding to people's real hard so really you have to wo Robert Ford just put in a multiple dollar amount for science? Wow the whole time talking to a lot of new story to Tyson. Science ties to do. You need to go to the bathroom and come back when you're ready I'm ready okay. Okay all right all right for sometime people on the Internet have debated whether it's a gift or gift any did you come down in one camp or the other Jeff. Jeff Yeah ooh also JEFF OVER HERE. My family was also Jeff. I'm a Har- guy. Used to be like really annoyed with the heart. Jesus like that used to be like you saying that it'd be like look. I Love You rob. But let's not talk again till tomorrow and then I just need some time to sleep on it and figure this shit our just using the ancient pronunciation Ganga's con- yeah if just sit very similar. Yeah okay well. Jif peanut butter is leading. People weigh in as they have decided to get into this This debate has which has raged for years where you can now get a limited edition jar of GIF peanut butter. They are traditionally J. I f. but now you can get a jar of gifts peanut butter. No it's not they say in the Article Jeff and they say the creator of Jif also says Jeff Not Gif. You know. It'd be awesome if we could just like the people who are in each camp. Vote Shame on purpose just to Piss off rob. No sorry Danny to cut you off. They say no. I can tell you very upset Tyson. Yeah K- go on. Danny I just say it'd be better. If all of us could just vote for a champion from each camp to go out and fight the other one and then just settle it like they used to. Yeah so we don't feel submit like the are strongman. Yeah exactly like each pick. Gladiator are gladiator. And he goes out there. We're not saying to the death but to submission like a UFC fight. And then that'll be the way to settle it. Plus they'll make a ton of money they can all be sent to science for Tyson. Everybody wants so they are advertising this gift in Jif. It says on the label itself that Egypt creamy peanut butter is with the soft g and then there is the gift peanut butter with a hard G. that's what it says on the Label Tyson. Why isn't the gift peanut butter with the hard g? Why isn't that crunchy? As opposed to a Jif with these soft g being creamy. Wait say that again if it has a hard. Gee shouldn't that be the peanut butter holiday. Both be creamy peanut butter and one is is gift with hard g and one is Jif. Yeah so you're saying the hard g should be crunchy I like. I prefer crunchy peanut butter. If we're gross really tears apart your bread look Bro. You gotta spread it gently and if you don't how it's spread it gently then you have too much yeah. I don't need half a container of Jif with crunchy all my toes. Just so I can be smooth and delicate with my breath so they should have. This is what they should have done with the Gif and made that the crunchy all the time. Not just a marketing stunt for a little while and then Jeff and then that would've been something. You're right rob once again. I think we have proven that we are a better marketing team than almost the other marketing teams in the world. I don't know why people don't consult with us. You know I feel like that. That's an idea. I felt like that for a long time. I thought of this that we should have some sort of a like a news AF AD agency. Oh for sure. Yeah I think that look like the member of the show Nathan for you. We could be like that except for really really different. Yeah realizes businesses. You can get your ten dollar a jar of twelve peanut ten dollars We're J- Jimmy's with that. Is You on Amazon? Yeah you it's twice the price of the J. Yeah Jif with. Are they expect this to become a collector's item all due respect to any of our listeners? Who might be interested in this? Well how much of a loser Tyson to be that invested in gift versus Jif to go online and buy GIF peanut butter. I almost bought some as I read the article this morning before just to be funny and have it like sitting in my background here in the next few episodes is this for this is what you get someone as a joke. If it was closer to Christmas it makes more sense because then it could be a white elephant. Gift Jar. What holiday's coming up? This is a great Easter March. I yeah this for you ready for now. Yeah Yup Yup Yup. So they have. This is enough to make thirty four servings or sandwiches and zero looping images that yes that's what's us. I mean the elevated prices probably because they had to put a new blender production and a new other this and they're covering the costs of all those things and then the novelty of it and who knows like we're mocking this now but let's say in thirty years we do a news af where we're like and if you have an unopened jar of of GIF peanut butter you that's actually worth like on antics roadshow. We see on antiques. Roadshow on open Jarrah gift peanut butter and it's worth like seven hundred and fifty million grandmother gave it to me and the contents are still intact bills intact. Yeah this is where seven hundred thousand dollars. Do we know if this peanut butter promotion has anything to do with the Mr Peanut death. Dan Did MR peanut. Want to be cremated. Well tremate turn it to a creamy cremating Karimi and butter. That's great. That's your best Joe. Shootout Twenty to twenty nine. The mystery remains spin on it. It's like an hearn. You can have again. The AD agency idea is only that much better with this great marketing idea. You've come just off. The top of your head came plan. Did you have that plan for all? I DID NOT. I did not eat just came. It was amazing because that is awesome article. I saw that. So that's amazing it takes. Ab Nut why should we beginning? Update ON IS NOT MR peanuts. I old grandchild if if it's his baby or it's Mr Peanut reincarnated. I think they had to get rid of baby nut because of the sexual connotation they just canceled baby now. I don't even know what that is. Yeah Danny I. I got the impression that baby not stop saying baby nuts ice in game five. The character's name is baby nuts. It just sounds like it should be a dirty rap song. Yeah okay well. That's that's what I'm saying I was about to type into my google. Search Bar. Baby you would not going Bro. I get the sense that do you remember in Star Trek to the wrath of Khan win. Spock died and then his body was gone but he transferred his consciousness into Dr McCoy and then in Star Trek. Three the search for Spock. They were able to transfer the consciousness to the baby. Spa Maybe then rapidly age. Jake's raise it. It was like they had the baby thing right in front of them. They should have just gone with baby. Spock for the final star Trek. Do you guys feel like I've seen all these movies like Youtube. Have based on my. Have you not seen that you do? Do you not know. We're have no clue what you're talking about asks. Danny I know I knew Danny as you were talking to him. I was like good thing. 'cause I know Danny's watching I will. I will say that babies spock was way better than teenage sparks. Remember how annoying that was? When it was a bad move John Losing reviewers and gaining viewers at the same time that you're talking about star Trek and is it different demographics now. Either have to keep the Star Trek. It's talk up every episode. Alright for go back to the baby. Nah Okay baby not was born on the Super Bowl and there was another super bowl promotion which which came up from Trojan Condom. This super bowl. I believe a B. Net was born on this super bowl. Yeah Yeah so okay so you know I guess that was the thing and so also then Trojan condoms had a super bowl commercial and so they had a contest where somebody had to show a stockpile of condoms to wear a to win a year's supply of condoms. I'm presumed unused. I would imagine. Yeah hope so in one in the contest or name is Annie Green. She was going to win a year supply of Trojan condoms. But she got way more than she expected. She received a shipping pallet with seven crates of condoms each containing forty eight boxes of ten condoms so she is received three thousand three hundred and sixty condoms as the winner of the year supply of condoms. This appears to be like someone only. They added an accidental zero to order. Yeah Awesome Bomb. Maybe two maybe two on the year supply. No well it depends thinking at least three hundred. Three hundred thirty six is closer to fill out if you're married or not. Yeah then it's like if you're married to get four or five of them and then if you're not married they give you three hundred sixty five and it depends on how married you are so the woman doesn't know what to do. She reached out to Trojan condoms on twitter to say like. Hey you sent me all of this Three thousand hundred sixty condoms in my possession. How is this a year supply? Hashtag overwhelmed Trojan said. We just thought you'd be really busy this year. That as a dangerous road to go down Jen Tyson was this like all Braga. A viral marketing could have. Yeah they could have done it on purpose. And it's Hilarious to get a full pallet of Trojan College delivered to Your House not rap and then just been all exposed. It's like when we were in elementary school and found a condom wrapper on the ground. Somewhere so we slipped it into the back pocket of the Mormon bishops son so that when his mom did laundry by the way that's not necessarily a bad thing she looks at it as a having three thousand three hundred. Sixty condoms Danny. You don't WanNa comment on a Tyson framing the Mormon mission on Mormon Bishops. Well we don't know how that story ended. That's that's we go to this day like. Are you listening? Mormon bishop son probably right now due to a life of crime that he was forced by. Yeah Yeah I WANNA talk about how? She's viewing this is just kind of. She doesn't realize that she's been given balloons gloves. You know I mean like there's lots of things you can do is to put your sandwiches to water. Balloons water balloons. She shows us the condoms as Ziplock. Bags Danny Yeah. They can count has mobile. Mike Waterproof IRS Yucky. Now use it for your cell phone if you could go out on a boat. Yeah I guess if you're traveling. Mass Transit SORTA LIKE. He's got gifts. She doesn't have to go gift shopping for like a few years because she can just hand these she doesn't need Saran. Wrap her partially consumed cucumbers. Yep SLIP ONE IN. Tie off the end. I'm just saying that she's not. She's not looking at the by way. Okay yeah she really. Isn't I bet the? Ups delivery person has a different perception of her. Now Yeah you live here all by yourself look around. Just you hear okay. Well you need to sign for this flu balloon animals. I didn't come up with that. A frost in the chat did but I stole it and almost use it as my own joke. Monday gave credit. Yeah sometimes we will still your jokes and use them as our own also sounds like yeah yeah you could frame frame super religious people with them. Put them in the morning. I'm what she should've done his forward a mall to Tim Tebow House well. He's very now. He's yeah the the bachelor contestant from last year. Madison sent it to Madison Madison this year. Yeah Yup Oh that's somewhere where they're like. I'm a Virgin Virgin my whole life. And then you're like no you're not how come you have this whole thing? Econ. Did you have a thin. If there's a thin layer between you and the person even if it's rubber that doesn't count as intercourse by the way. The woman won the contest. This was called the Hashtag Trojan sack party. Gross to Hashtag the contest that the woman won the sack party. Yeah Trojan Trojan Sack Party. You can sack parties. I I heard that they were going to go with Trojans Scrotum Party at first and then they were like no scrotum to visual. Let's do sat and that's really not how the condoms work Tyson. Well it covers everything but yes yes post. Always you can always triple bag to double wound. Do Yeah I mean you just flex. How many rubber based all I know is nobody's buying condoms now because they are just hitting this lady up on twitter we sell. Tally gave her a contract. Such resell. These okay. I don't think so. So I I know somebody who could use some of these spare condoms and that would be a one of the New South Wales babboons which was scheduled for a SEC. Demy Tyson so so you're saying that instead of going in for a vasectomy this baboon could have just gotten these condoms and been set for a couple of years. Yeah yeah so this baboon was. Condoms are a temporary fix. Rob I guess so I guess so you know. The second is reversible in some cases but yeah more permanent fix that's correct yes so this Australian baboon was scheduled for a vasectomy but instead was able to flee the operating room with two female monkeys. Danny what a baller move. Sounds like he'll be telling them he actually got the to me. That's a pretty classic. It's cool. Don't worry about anything I know where I can get. Some kind of classic Baboon Move Yeah Really Classic Baboon Move Dude. This guy is baller dude. He knew what was coming and he knew how to send a message. No was get away with my two. They keep calling the the females babboons wives. Yeah I found that. We're you yeah. His two wives. Yeah so yeah go ahead Raza poly-amorous relationship. It's common or uncommon in the babboons. Got bigamists not poly-amorous. I think polygamous ligaments and they're married. Yeah is there a Sarah? They said wives they said wives they didn't do baboon wives. Yeah okay what's with all these monkeys escaping? We have herby monkeys and Florida now. He got the boon in Australia. I know what is the monkeys? The primates have evolved to point where they're using robot fear as a diversion for the human race when in all actuality we got a whole planet of the apes scenario coming upon us where they're going to be spreading herpes to every one of us and once. We're down with the hurts. These guys these babboons are going to be multiplying like crazy because the vasectomy monkeys are getting away before their surgeries. There's nothing we can do to stop. So you think that the babboons are throwing us off the scent with the robot. Talk security elaborate. That's pretty pretty alliance. Do they know robots feelings? That can stop the babboons. They must they I I don't I have. I just barely came up with this so I haven't worked out all the details but I think we've got a crisis on our hands and potentially a new planet of the apes movie too right. Yeah started with the baboon that escaped a vasectomy with his two wives. Yes no starting with the herpes. Monkeys opening scene monkeys in a jungle pan out pan out Pan out Florida. What there shouldn't be monkeys there. There are purpose everywhere. Everything now Zoom over Australia K. monkey baboon wait. That Boone's live in Australia. Zoom Zoom Zoom. Out running out of a hospital dragging two wives caveman style out of the hospital meeting with them. No Vasectomy nats the opening scene. Okay Marrano loose terrify. Yeah by the way if you ask me which one I'm more scared of the baboon without the Me Of the heard of her monkeys. Your hands down are heard of her. Monkeys is probably one of the most terrifying things you're gonNA counter with excel. Is it called a hurt or is it called a clutch. I don't know I've heard like be heard hurt. Be Heard of monkeys college. Hoops may make sure you wash your hands. If you're ever in the vicinity of the heart be heard. Yeah so. I'm looking fused by the story where they say that. Local police in wildlife handers from the Toronto Zoo were dispatched to the scene. To capture the primates. The New South Wales Police confirmed situation has been under control. And they've contained the babboons just before seven PM. But a spokeswoman for the police said they have been contained police are working with experts to safely return them to the facility. There's no immediate danger to the public but people are advised to avoid the area. Why Yeah Yeah. Please avoid the area under control smoke and mirrors smoke and mirrors. Yep that's what they do. They have. The police uses media to calm our fears when they shouldn't be calmed at all. This story is by what the Star Rob us. So the star as we know it can be sensationalized a certain degree so when I read that I was like. This isn't even a true story but then they said the the whole Australia thing and Teranga Zoo. I've been to Toronto Zoo. So I know location wise. Those matchup and usually the star does not do their research in those instances. So I think that maybe this is actual fact. Well Danny. Is it possible that if we end up finding out more about the story. It's possible that the baboon and his wives are in the middle of a similar situation to the snake or g that we talked about last Real curious thing will be whether to get to a meeting. The mating which situation. Yeah which ends on. How much acrobatic training they've had if you find baboon mating boss the last thing you want to do is poke it with a stick okay or or looked in the eyes call the authorities and just get away from that meeting. Ball Dangerous Super Day. Yes yeah all right. Stay really is especially with all the herpes probably shooting. Outta there. It's like you can't even get close to it all right even probably smelling hearing it. You could get herpes. I bet so. Speaking of dangerous situations L. Let's about this story. Which I think we're really on the forefront of the you know googlification of medicine and we're here to push back hard against that. A alternative method for traditional treatments for hemorrhoids has been proliferated online. Tyson hemorrhoids sufferers are putting frozen potatoes into their anal cavity to not so much worse that way of hemorrhoids doctors saying this is a big problem. Do not do not do. This would try if I were in excruciating pain so the Jada does Jay the hemorrhoids. And then you're hoping potato will cure. Yeah I actually probably wouldn't try this. I read the whole article because know. I like to do my research before the show. Yeah that's the problem was one of the many problems with social media is that everyone is now a doctor and it is really really really crazy where they're just like. Hey Jenny. Mccarthy wrote a whole chapter frozen potatoes inner book and was like Oh. Why wouldn't we do that then seeming like he's talking about yeah but she's not exactly yeah and then they're like. Gwyneth paltrow said this is like well a panel of doctors who are actually trained in a lot of these Subjects say don't and they're like well when paltrow's more famous So it makes more sense. Yeah it's really infuriating to watch. This is like going to your doctor. And asking their their Advice and then being like that doesn't sound right. I'm going to ask my friend and then you ask your friend and then do what your friend says. Rather than what your doctor says. Yeah so I don't know I think I think deep fried potatoes in your mouth. Yeah that's great delicious one that's Great. I think jamming them. No other way. Rosen sliced them. No and how are you slicing them? I think you'd have to slice them around or something. I think like a jagged frozen potato. I think you WANNA go like more of like a Julianne Fry more than a wedge or slice I would try and do a cylindrical. Could like a curly fry no like a cylinder to cylinder where you're getting a cylinder that you're GonNa you're gonna cut it up like I said I'm going to cut it into a cylinder because I'm not gonNA. Yeah because I feel like that would be. The most surface area maintained along the HAM radio Outbreak. Why we see stories like this. Yeah I feel like people know. I feel like it used to be understood. That's how you got rid of hemorrhoids. Right and this is what I want to believe that. As we become more educated these stories become more of a fringe story rather than a mainstream story like. Yeah everybody in the Ukraine in the eighteen hundreds was using the frozen potato cure for their hemorrhoids. But now it's so rare that they're just stamping out those fires. On the periphery of people who still cling two hundred two hundred three hundred year old cures for for things. They don't go to their doctor like I don't need to see a doctor. Potato live in the chat says Tom. Hanks is a huge frozen potatoes for hemorrhoids advocate. Is he like the spoke? Either frozen potatoes at hemorrhoids as sally field is to whatever thinks she was too. That'd be great. Psa Hi Tom. Hanks and I endorsed this commercial about frozen potatoes. Yeah I think I think this is rare and I think that maybe one doctor in one area of very uneducated people had way too many and he was just sick of it. He's like dude enough. I gotta say something and then the story got pushed out into the national media and now we believe that everyone other than ourselves is putting cold potatoes in their butts. Yeah it's only everyone except for us and now we have to. Because we don't WanNa be the odd man out Danny Lost Rob. No is it just you and I. It's just you and I. We could hijack this entire thing. How is that possible? Seeing that he is the host rob sister. Nino is cancelling his twitter account and going by the apostle at least follow. What should we do? Did he step off for a minute to just double shell frozen potato? Idei side freeze. Let's see I got a text. I hope it's from him. Had A power surge. Might computer turned off restarting now. We have to do this by ourselves. Danny I can't I. Can't you know you pressure? My hands are sweaty so I think we've talked about herpes enough right. Let's see his. Rob Is the guiding. Angel? This message. If it's just you and I going to go off the rails but let's go to the next story Tsa Bands Tick Tock. Dang it meatloaf strawberry milk billboard. You didn't really do a great segue into that. Here's one I'll do a segue. So what were we talking about her? We'll talk about potatoes in the bud. Hard to connect the DO NOPE. I got it here. We go okay. So a lot of times if you're thinking about the potatoes and hemorrhoids story and saying to yourself. W. T. F. Have we got a story for you? The World Taekwondo Federation it has changed their acronym their age old acronym which was w t F thoughts. Danny Bryson go Actually in this day and age we talked about. We just talked about a story with Jif right. It seems like this is the perfect time to maximize your wt f downs. What I'm saying I think why. Why would you do this? They've got it all wrong. It's all backwards at the F. General Assembly it's not W. T. F. anymore. Now it's just W. T. Which is so stupid because they had the best name ever. That's going to generate the most clicks which is what it's all about and now they've just gone to wt. Yeah that's not enough. Look at this picture of all the people. The W. T. F. General Center so happy. Yeah they're innocent naive some of them. No but a lot of them aren't even from an English speaking background to even probably you know. Understand those acronyms. Maybe they are. Maybe that's universal bugger. King would pay a billion dollars for this type of advertising. So would wendy's yeah so all. Wendy's they all all of those Trojan planters. Yeah all of this is like you. Hit absent. Mindedly hit the Jackpot and they're they're just like no no thank you. We're just going to change it. Yeah exactly do they stumble upon like if if if I were driving down the street and I just saw W T F I would immediately go in and sign up. Yeah Right Deputy General Assembly. Yes please sign me up. And the next thing I know I'm super good at kicking and punching I don't actually know. What taekwondo is that like more wrestling or are you actually doing like spin? Kicks I think it's a some grappling and and spin kicks. I think it's a combination of I think it's probably grappling. You could use this like they could have. Someone grappling gets thrown to the ground and turns camera w t f ways to make a commercial out of this a maybe. It's more like the hand fist combat. Kim I wonder how many other organizations are going to have to change their Names like ll. Auto L. F. I San Louis. Yeah where are these corporations would stand for is actually see a bunch of them? I don't know S MD. Does anybody know. I do so one must know. It can't be Lost Knowledge K. What is it inappropriate really? Well I'M GONNA have to look. Where do I WANNA look it up? It doesn't matter okay. I won't anyways sitting next to me. Yeah watching she's always sitting there watching you making sure you don't do anything. Inappropriate spending money looking things up. Okay Guy Tyson. What's your next segue? I think cover WTI sufficiently K. I still have no word from rob. So we're going to keep pressing forward. If you think that W T F was bad than you should get a load of this Guy Rob. He's back thank you. Uh-huh oh my gosh. I had like some sort of a power surge here and my computer Got knocked knocked out and took forever. Reboot was what? I was listening. As on my laptop I was trying to carry your water. And it's a possibly possibly w t f they were. Yeah they really should your bass. Yes sigh of relief. I felt like we were we. Were exploring new territory now Scout Auden. Yeah then all of a sudden our scout disappeared ties and I started eating all of our food. Snacks immediately using the Matt has toilet papers with this computer. But so I think what I'm doing is after the show is. I'm going to like open associated. I'm going to open it up and then I'm going to shove a ton of potatoes in there. Are they frozen yeah? Nicole put some frozen potatoes in the freezer real quick. Yeah the thing is the frozen potato story. Just a lot of people are now going to be asked about why you know. Why are these potatoes in the freezer? To begin with free. Does I think they last for a pretty long time? Yeah that's the thing so instead of going through. Someone's medicine cabinet when you want to investigate because with a freezer to now. Yeah yeah good idea. Okay is a good idea one last story before we get to the ball tall and see. How many frozen Burritos Dan? He has in there so many. I've got enough for all three of us. So Valentine's Day was earlier this month as we Close out February but there was one guy who tried to pull off the ultimate Valentine's Day caper. There was a man who went to his a local outback and acted like he got stood up that night. He asked for a table for two and then stood there alone and looked very sad into glass of wine and then as the night went on he You know seemed more and more depressed hoping that people would pay for his outback meal. You know at least get paid for his acting hard. Act Sad when you're getting free stuff that's really hard. Yeah Tyson. This is a lot of work for an outback dinner. It is a lot of work for outback dinner. I feel like he was. Kinda not really shooting for the fences. Like if you're GONNA go big and try and really get a Freebie out of somebody. Then why not go something bigger and go like noteboo or outback? I'm sure a lot of people get free food there all the time. Yeah but it is believable that if you asked your Valentine's date out to the outback that she would show up. Yeah yeah the knowing thing about this is that he bragged about it I mean that's just the world we live in but he's like I committed. I lied committed a crime or I don't know what you call a soft crime and I got away with it. I guarantee that's only last two. You think Oh yeah sure did come on any price. Felt like he was going to get a girlfriend out of the whole thing at the end of it. All is the guy asking. He's saying he'll pay twenty five thousand dollars for girls. They're fairly sure what might move in the same circles. Yeah this is different guy. You're sure yum. It looks different. Looks Different because this is this thing. Yeah this is con man. This is con man. Shit right here for sure not air contest and it says that he did donate money for some reason. Yeah I think he's at the end of the story. That people are GONNA be mad. I mean so. He does like the girls. Yeah that was like the girls whose slash C. L. U. Yeah it's like when they get caught they don't get quite the response help for instead of getting all high fives digital high fives. That's when they suddenly say. Oh no no no no. I did this 'cause this wasn't just self promotion or me getting a free stuff griffey outback. This is actually for other things that asked me. What does the ACL you have to do with this guy getting a free dinner from people at the outback? He probably works for them. It's like like I if I was just going to donate money to charity. I think I would go with something like like feeds like the homeless or something. Yes like much shop of like I stole money from people and trick them. Buy Me dinner the outback so couple at the bar had paid for his meal. Here's the other thing that couple will never ever help anybody out after being conned. They've just taken a kind couple out of the pool of kind people who help those in need out yet. Made cynics out of sympathetic people I mean that's really the real crime here we've really is. It's like the it's the same as it always was like when I was a kid and you'd be walking around and you'd have somebody asked for some change and my dad would be like they're just going to spend it on. Drugs knows yeah potatoes. Yeah now it's like you can't even help a guy who's pretending to have a broken heart out at applebee's or that really is the real crime. Yeah yeah totally. It's like the kind couple has taken advantage of in next time. They think about helping. They'll remember this guy who donated fifty dollars. Aclu which we don't know maybe this couple maybe this couple is anti ACLU for whatever reason and now like their worst fears are coming realized Yes dupe twice. It's a deep twice. Yeah yeah all right Danny. Are you ready to take us to the bottle of a crack my knuckles? Oh Rackham. Wow did crack. I was afraid I was going to have to sing the whole song. Live with you Gone Rob After. Your Power Search Yeah. You don't have a surf protector. I don't know why I'm going to. I don't know what happened that really the power didn't go out of my house but like whatever reason like there was like split second that was enough to knock this computer of my wife. Slamming a ton of doors. Downstairs I don't know if that had anything to do with it also coincidence say that you had a power surge sounds awesome. Yeah I just had a power. Surge sounded cool like when he said a drink use surged with power and rage and from realty and. I wish I had that entire Palette Trojan condoms right now in my house or my power surge power. What happened all right? Let's go to Danny's bolt all right. Well welcome to my whole. I think you're GONNA like it. I think you're GONNA be be do the rest of the song the First Class Horse Lady Fish. Horse cogs holds the pilot quicker. We all regret horse is the thing turned down because the horse. That was amazing. I feel I feel. I feel relaxed. I feel more. I'm more it takes time but if you let the horse do its job really calm. I promise everybody here stuck by horse. It's GONNA get everybody down here and nobody's GonNa be upset is going to be calm. So you're stubborn and calm about the horse. Actually I I do find that when people tell you to be calm calming Danny. Thank you very much therapy horse. It's just calming Horse Therapy because that confuses people it's all who to call me. Yes okay. I'm afraid to talk. I I would just like I would just be quiet. Letting the carving of the Horse Take Okay yes okay. How long do I have to wait? Are you calm? Dyson yes can I have Tyson back. Can I summoned Tyson back dude? What if actually developed like split personality often two-mile annoyed? Would you guys be with me? I'd get fired wouldn't they? Yeah maybe like a horse lady puppet the suit like a like the comic dog insult comic dog ladies. Gentlemen it's an apostle is here with horse. Lady Lady you it's gotTa be was up more so everybody knows that it's. The lady on the plane with her miniature horsely. Yeah that's yeah horse lady just sounds like you're insulting. Someone's looks like it's for sure. Yeah because the Horse th the First Class Horse Lady Puppet and then the horse would be like just right next to her wrapped up in the blanket that's true and then And then you have to have the service like saddle. I M assuming. That's what the little horse horse carried. Its own baggage. Look at some of course ladies probably carrying her baggage too emotionally and in figurative baggage some research Tyson. If I can start yeah you can start talking about pets. Oh yes this is. This is a recent paper. They came out and they were studying body decomposition but inadvertently answered the question. Will your cat you if you dye your house when you think I think you would. I'm going to say one hundred percent. Yes it would. Does the Horse Lady for the horse would eat her in her apartment when she horses. I'm pretty sure are vegetarian and celery. So what they found out is that cats will snack on human corpses so it went presented with a delicious rotting human corpse. There is a good chance that should I die in this house alone? Liz leaves me. Takes Kids my cat? That I didn't even want will be eating me when they bust down the door doing. Can you blame it? Well you've talked about your cap before the and it sounds like a hungry cat is sounds like also waiting to each you. Sometimes it looks at me and maybe it is and now we know that the research is out. There shows that cats will eat your body so if that thoughts been keeping you awake at night maybe come up with some ways to protect yourself So that you can have an open casket funeral. I mean I guess but the sad. You'RE NOT GONNA CARE. Maybe but yet remembered that the cats probably GONNA go for the most delicious parts which we all know. Are The eyeballs? Come on no. It's true and then so the flank. You don't think the flanks more delicious. It fatty think. Well whatever it's going to be saying that you think loves you. I don't think that but I mean my kids do and my wife do that. Cat has no qualms feasting upon you as easy to but. Here's the thing Danny. So this supposedly an experiment and it's an experiment so I assume that it's a pretty sterile and safe environment with a cat also in the room of the decomposing corpse. How did that can't get in there? That's what I want to know. Okay so there are. These things called You've got to remember the names. There's a couple of colleges that do forensic classes where they have decomposing bodies just out in a yard that they kind of go out and examined to show like how bodies collective right but what. They found that the cats were coming to say cameras on these bodies. Obviously in they found that cats were coming in and snacking and so this is of like this is following. The cat wired that they're saying that this is a question that has been asked. You know whether or not the cats will eat you and then it goes on to say. The police reports people's animals including dogs. But you know they talk. Mostly about cats have nibbled on their deceased owners. So if you want to learn more about this if you're afraid of what might happen. Should you die alone? You know? This is an article from wired. And you know my cat. I really think would go right to me. You know while my body still warm while it's in the cooling face because it's a hungry cats very big ton of food and it just needs to keep its calories up WANNA sleep in. I think I think the rotting of the flesh though does soften it up so it's a more succulent cut than than like the Grizzled Bony Gristle. That makes up most. I can't imagine how it taste good to anyone I mean. But that's what they say about slim Jims and yet they're still. They're still on the well. That's the slim Jim with the cheese that a company is at the same time. And it's basically like you're eating at a French restaurant. It's quite exquisite and the flavors. You can mix in your mouth but anyway just so you know if you've ever had that burning question. Tyson's turtle probably would know Kisumu Tortoise toward are strict vegetarians on the dark omnivores. If I were a turtle than we'd then yeah you're endanger but you're safe okay. So Tyson safe. I'm in danger. All right but now we know where we stand when it comes to our pets consuming are. Do you know deceased bodies. Okay all right what. What is kind of a depressing Bolthole? Danny that was pretty sad for the cash starving. I wish we had the horse here to just chill out for a second. I wonder what the Horse would do the horse. Probably go crazy in your house like open doors and smash windows but it would be like out of your pantry and stuff I would license. She Wanders Sofa southbound. Even your your service horse horse first lady eventually. Yeah eventually. A Horse is going to be a horse. If you bring it back down to its most primal existence. I think. Rob was trying to tickle the Horse Lady Out of the service horse horses professionally trained by a group of horse ladies exactly like myself better very calm around the horse at all times and then the horse reciprocates that come back to humans that even come in contact with the horses horse later. You may be so tense like wells on a chalkboard for me per really is. It's crazy that even me when you guys have me do like I immediately. My heart rises and get agitated. Just knowing how screechy the voice is going to be. Your Apple Watch sends out an alert to nine one wake. The police just called and asked if I was having a heart attack your blood pressure and heart rate by it through the roof. Are you okay or asked if your wife had been abusing? We've heard receiver calls over a woman screaming at this even still like. I'm picturing a horse in an airport and even steel like my heart is like going crazy. All right he's not riley they're hanging their tic- all right well. It was a great news AF This Week. Water ride we had. We had everything this week including horse lady including Horse Lady so this was a great show. Thank you Danny and Tyson. For holding down the four while I dealt with tech issues over here I could use lady black over me right now. You do have a lot of tech issues. February has been a rough month for that is Somebody asked if I went apple. I did not. I'm still on Android. Just you know there's those android fans out there. I don't want them to leave me hanging smart hanging there. Of course you follow Danny Bryson on Social Media had at Tyson Apostle anything else. Anything else going on guys experiments on. Van. Mo- yeah. I'm excited I'm so excited for this scientific experiment Tyson. I MT I need suggestions though. So get on whatever platform you want to connect with me and give me some suggestions for probably in the neighborhood of one to two hundred dollar experiment. All right great work. We'll be back with our news af for the first week in March coming up a one week from today next Tuesday until next time I think everybody have a good one. Bye Guys

Demy Tyson Danny Jeff Yeah Danny Yeah twitter rob Toronto Zoo horse lake Danny Bryson Jif Jif Rob Cicirino Beverly Hills Disney Apostol James Kennedy Mo Hulu Van
Super Bowl LV, Farmers Insurance Open, & NHL with Brian Blessing January 26, 2021

Sports Gambling Radio - By BangTheBook

1:07:17 hr | 6 months ago

Super Bowl LV, Farmers Insurance Open, & NHL with Brian Blessing January 26, 2021

"Hello everybody and thank you for joining me here on this tuesday january twenty. Sixth edition of ats radio. I'm your host adam. Burke joined today by. Brian blessing the host of sportsbook. Radio and vegas hockey hotline. Talk about super bowl. Fifty five here give you our initial thoughts on the side and total hauer kind of set our prop strategies as we wait for those pets the posted later on in the week here and of course a ton of them to be posted next week jetsam some farmers insurance open. We'll warm up a little bit at torrey pines and talk about this week's pga tour event and finish out on the nhl side or against a very interesting stuff to talk about in a massive card of nhl action here for tuesday night over. Ats dot io we got you covered. Four su rule fifty five. My opening line report went up yesterday. I'll have a bunch of prop content throughout the next two. Weeks are the rest. Our writers over there will be doing the same on the prop side as well. Looking at the game from all kinds of different angles still doing nhl college basketball and nba on the daily as well. I've started working on my major league. Baseball stuff my plan is to try. And have my. Mlb betting guide out the last week of february somewhere around february twenty fifth so about a month away from that things starting to happen now in terms of transactions. We're getting a clearer picture on the start date for spring training. Some of the rules changes for this year. So about a month. Away from my. Mlb betting guide over. Ats dot io. Which has a preview of all thirty teams a win. Total pick for all thirty teams went twenty one and nine on those back in two thousand nine hundred nineteen obviously last year. Only the sixty game season but looking forward to that. Mlb betting guide which will be out here in about a month or so time finally delegate find in the google play store or in the apple store. Full article integration from the website. It's a bet tracker. It's an odd screen. Lots of helpful handicapping tools in that. Ats app so make sure you download that today with that. We bring the guests. That is the frigid and cold. Mr brian blessing from sportsbook radio and vegas hockey hotline ryan. How's it going today. Man snow everybody around. Here's going nuts. i mean i. I saw enough snow in buffalo to last me lifetime. They're all go nuts about we get a little snow overnight. Get me an inch in the backyard. And you know the thing about a school day begins the kids get a kick and they never see it. You know whatever cold it. I i tell you you know it's funny. We joke about going to capital and joke about your the sony open at wildlife. Hawaii sounds nice are nicer with each passing winner. My friend of us on the ship videos last week who. Let's quadruple that and go to hawaii you absolutely. It's a great plan while that goes here for super bowl. Fifty five and of course. You have a couple of videos from brian over on our. Ats youtube paid so far. Some initial thoughts from him on super bowl fifty five we'll get a full fledged pick over on our youtube page as things kind of settle in a little bit and of course Looking at the super bowl fifty six is which are already out. Because you know fifty five hasn't played yet so we might as well think ahead to the next one but those video you could check out our. Ats youtube page and brian. Is we take a look here at cerebral fifty-five coming up sunday february seventh kansas city minus three with extra juice minus three and a half reduce. Wherever you kind of look out there in the market those are your two choices. Total mostly fifty-six. Some places back to fifty six and a half here but there's not going to be a whole lot of movement on the side or the total for this game throughout the week enough this week but it is what we said in the opening video where it was you know. Three three and a half fifty seven came down to fifty six fifty. Six a half and resume. This happens every week. It happened with the bucks game. Brady money shows thing will get to three for a while. It's three minus twenty. It's gonna get the three and a half. I think this number gets two four adam. At some point. I really do. I think as people start to dissect this a little bit more in the money starts to flow in and they'll be late money. Obviously you know when we get the wednesday thursday friday of next week. But i just believe this number is going to go up. Probably closes three and a half. But i envision a scenario where four shows up. yeah. I think we see four here. Two maybe three and a half is the close. Maybe three and a half minus fifteen something like that. But i envision a scenario where this one does get to four. I mean look you know. Tim bay did what they had to do. Last week. they beat green bay. They got pressure on aaron rodgers as we talked about yesterday on the show and really. That was the difference in the game. Because tom brady didn't play particularly well. You i mean. He took advantage of a horrific defensive. Play call right before halftime. But he had the three picks in the second half that green bay just didn't take full advantage of credit to the tampa bay defence for that but your list kansas city team. You know we all knew that they were kind of a powder keg. We're just sort of waiting for them to actually care in most of their games and last week it felt like they actually cared it. We kind of saw what happened. Yeah i think there's a combination of things that are in play here but to me. The story coming into this game is brady mahomes vibe. It's kansas city's defense because nobody did to. The bills offense with kansas city did and i love the you know the low hanging fruit and other wing baskets are coming out of the. Were the big game. The stages too big for josh allen bubba. They probably romo probably showed a ten times in that game. An overhead shot. Nobody was open. Josh allen had nobody to throw to there was blanket coverage. I mean they and it's funny. How one play. And i'm not saying the game would have been different but it was nine nothing in the bills. Got the ball back again of your member. A little as a jailhouse break and alan step back let them all come to him and through feather to devin singletary who could walk for a first down and he dropped it. I don't know if you remember that play. Maybe the ball up nine nothing they punted and then kansas city's offense got going there the end around hartman and they never looked back but the story of the game coming into me is if kansas city's defense is playing like that they just completely shut down the buffalo wide receivers who had been sensational all year long so all the guys that their names are out there that are getting credit was a guy we should be talking about leading up to the game with brady. 'cause it it brady. Threw three picks against the backers. If he's got the honey badger. I got a bomb. Pick for the mvp. I think danny sorenson would be my home. Run shot to take a flyer on a defensive player winning the mvp. But i think. Kansas city's defense a story they they're running games going. They ended up turning to the williams kid. And that's what happened last year in the super bowl. You know the plug a running back. Who's the guy edwards helaire probably one hundred percent but the hit kelsey and he'll they're uncomfortable and then walk ins is probably gonna show up harbin's godspeed and they've just played with teams all year long and here is this that the terrifying way to look at this. And we're gonna be talking about this for two weeks while we blue in the face but you get throw the one game out. So basically they're fifteen in Whether they were were they go at the here fourteen into so they want to games there. Sixteen to in reality they're sixteen won the chargers game. Nothing we're talking about this team. Peaking at the right time. I mean it's horrifying. No you're absolutely right. And this is one of those things where buffalo's lack of a running game kind of came back to burn them in the afc championship game. Kansas city respect the ron at all. I mean they didn't have to. There was no reason to do that. Josh allen runs for eight yards yet. They had seven point. Two yards per carry but allen had twelve point six per carry on his own. Kansas city had no respect for buffalo's ability to run the football so allen. I think all things considered the fact. That josh allen had a decent game only turn it over once you know there were some coverage sacks in there with four of them. I think he played bad. When you consider exactly what you said. Nobody was open very tight windows to throw into and the chiefs. It was either sent a bunch of rauscher's or drop back in zone cover and blanket. Everybody it quarterback supposed to do in that situation and look. I'm not a run the football guy even though the browns said so much accessible that throughout the course of the year. I'm a big believer in throwing the ball simply because you get much bigger chunks when you throw the football and it's just a quarterback driven league from the way that the rules are are kind of interpreted and called but if you don't have any semblance of balance and a lot of problems and that was the case for buffalo. I mean kind of run. We talked about the bills all year. Long i said that's that is their achilles heel and we'll catch up to them and you know the the it's amazing because for the most part that offense. Why does a great job passed protecting but they really struggle running the ball. And everybody's looking at it. Single terry bills. She'll be drafted running back two years ago. You drive the single and then you drafted moss. I mean running back to running backs there. Were dime a dozen. They really are. I honestly everybody talks about bryant. Able like this mad. Scientists made a genus. I thought he caused them the playoff game against the texans last year with his play calling. And i'm i'm just saying the guy's been great. He's got alan to go to the next level but why they don't have a running game adam. I've said this since day one and in week nine. I begged on twitter before they gave. Can you guys wake up and smell the coffee. And they actually did it for one game against new england and they got like one hundred ninety yards rushing the bills running game every time they do run the ball. It's going in the shotgun with an inside hand off to single terrier moss who are standing still next to him and then start running. They never lined the back behind the quarterback to get a running start to get ahead get some momentum. Take a whole and run. I the to me. It's not the running backs. It's the play design anyone. No i think it's a really important point a lot of times and that was something i loved about what kevin stefanski with. The browns is that they'd run on a shotgun they'd run out of i form. They'd run out of a heavyset. They'd run out of all kinds of different formations any. Look if you're going to line up the same way every time and give the defense any kind of context clue you know. Maybe the the running backs footwork is setup differently. Maybe he's a step behind instead of standing right next to you know. Pick up on all this stuff and film study. You've got to show a lot of different variety in the browns did that. The browns had success with it. Well you will. I mean just. Listen i mean forget. Good luck to you of your own accord trying to put a guy on tyreek hill and cover this guy if you could put a lockdown corner on the guy and he's still going to get open but we. Kansas city does heels either in the slot. He's outside he's constantly in motion and he'll gets a running start with no no one hand handshaking them right at the line. Even a guy like that who's virtually uncomfortable. Kansas city's got him running all over pre snap it which makes him even more lethal right. No and that's what you do. I mean you know you kind of move kelsey on the formation hill around the you get people moving around and does a masterful job of that and even take it down to the college level. I think about the national championship. Game with alabama and ohio state. Devante smith was in motion before just about every snap your chasing him up and down the formation. Then you're expected cover that guy. It doesn't really work that way. I mean we you know it is what it is. It's designed to do but when you're talking about. Electric players like this motion is designed to and it does it. You had the defense moving but it also creates a little. Pre snap chaos. It's part of the chess match and kansas city's as good as anybody doing well and this is why. I like kansas city in the super bowl. And i mentioned this. Taking a minus. Three yesterday was probably a good idea. I don't know how many minus three is are going to come back at reasonable juicier if you can't find one right now but when you look at the first meeting between these two teams holster for four hundred sixty two yards and only about forty or fifty of those. We're in the last quarter and a half. I mean they had tampa bay completely pegged from game plan standpoint over the first three quarters. The buccaneers only covered because they scored fourteen points in the fourth quarter. When the game was already decided then achieves a new half we need a drive. We'll get it and they got it at the end of the game to play keepaway get enough first. Downs iced to victory. But that's the thing here. Is that you know. Kansas city can move so many guys around like a hardmen like a hill they. They've got edwards helaire. That can line up in the slot out wide or whatever else and what got tampa bay. The win over green bay as i talked about already. Was that pass. Rush that pressure with the front four kind of the tackles collapsing. A little bit for the packers. That's the only hope to me for tampa bay in this game is with the eric fisher injury. Can they take advantage of the kansas city offensive line and the problem is i think it's just too hard because of the the the ball out so quickly you you look at this thing and you know indi could have won and kept going. And you look at tampa bay. Washington gave them a tussle. They beat the saints. Brees wasn't one hundred percent and then this last game against the packers they go on the road and they beat the one seed. It's hard to shoot holes adam again. You watch the game. The halftime play won the game. You know a goofball idiot play by the packers and you know we look back on that game. I marvel at this stuff buddy. you know. i'm just an idiot. You know and i'm sitting in my living room and i'm watching the game and it's where it was second in one packers get three timeouts. Like whatever was left to to something like that. They loaded commercial and before. I shut everything off for the bills game on twitter during the break. I'm not looking for a pad and a bag here. But i'm just this is what is mind blowing me. I carp about the value of timeouts. And i would say that indianapolis could be played in this game. Their home because they blew timeouts. Your browns could be playing seriously. They blew timeouts. You know the the simple things that caused you games understand. Why teams don't understand. Just take the five yards. They why this is always a thing. And then i'm sitting there during commercial break. Its second and one. It's like the perfect scenario during the commercial break. I tweet out. Are the packers going to jump off. Sides on purpose and will areas be smart enough to decline the penalty. the able move. That's what i put out on twitter. During the commercial break they literally had even come out of the commercial. They hadn't even set up to snap the ball. Some guy from the baggers goes off side and arians takes the penalty. I'm like what are you an idiot. Its second in now. You get a penalty and it becomes second and six a false but basically if you play the odds its second one you got down to get a yard and now you own the two minute warning and their timeouts and you're virtually if you do give rogers the ball back getting back with ten seconds left. This guy takes the five yard penalty the beggars get them to third down. And there's the holding penalty the late flag. He did pull the guys jersey but they didn't pull the jersey pass. Incomplete aaron rodgers. Get the ball back with a minute. Fifty seconds to go away like look at that like that's off side. We get the first down guys like he didn't know that was coming. That was the perfect scenario. Decline the penalty. And oh by the way. You've got the greatest quarterback in the history of the game. That runs quarterback sneaks. He could run two quarterback sneaks at wars to get the first down. The game was over but arians decline the penalty and got away with it. Just marvel at this stuff. And that's something. I'm thinking about here too with this. Game is andy. Reid i mean the guy is is an exceptional game planner very very good head coach schemer and tampa bay. It didn't come back to hurt him. In the first half a dam sure could have they had what five or six third down conversions over their first couple of drought over the first three drives. That really gave them the opportunity to get out there and put some points on. The board scoreboard pressure on green bay. They kept running the football on first down so predictable not getting anything out of it. They converted what two or three third and ten pluses over their first few drives in the first half. I mean look they're playcalling was abominable in the first half for the most part. They just got very lucky. That brady was able to make plays on third doubt if you do that shit against kansas city any read. We'll bury you i. I'll be honest with you. The more i think about this game and i could be dead wrong. I've been wrong doubting the buccaneers last few weeks and several times over the course You say it sake out. That's what i think. I think this is an ass kicking. I realized honestly. That's what i think. And it's funny the lines three and used the words before the only chance tampa bay and the lanes three and no no. I feel that the only thing is kansas city does have this weird pension for coming out of the gate slow right. I mean they're down nine nothing in the bills game. They were down twenty one nothing to houston last year. They were down in the super bowl. I mean if they ever come out of the gate vast you know you get up fourteen. Nothing in brady's one dimensional. The way that defense played this past week. I i'm with it. It's a game that could be in in. Oh by the way we've been if you remember the long stretch of the super bowl were just duds they were all you know as kickings. We've been treated to a lot of good super bowls. I think for a number of years now. I don't know that this one's going to qualify. Now i don't think so either and this is one to where i talked about this on yesterday's show the spread hasn't come into play in a super bowl since two thousand nine which would mean that the underdog is won outright or the favourite has one covered so even this probably goes three and a half maybe four. I don't envision a scenario where kansas city wins this game by one or two maybe three points. Something like that. I can't see is going to win this game. I think they went big. Tampa bay wins this game. That's when it's close at that point the spread. It doesn't really matter anyway. So we'll do a rain dance and believe that you can get the skies over in tampa bay. We haven't seen a forecast that far out yet but you know you want off track somehow. Slow them down and listen. This isn't a diminish. The weapons that tampa bay has listen. They went up. You know diminish what they've done their here. Brady's here but you know they want in green bay. Give him credit. I mean the packers did a lot of stuff to you know. Lead to their own demise but tampa bay took advantage tampa bay took advantage in new orleans and survive surviving advance their here. So don't forget. They won this game without antonio brown. So you know you've got they've got weapons and four net you know. Have that nice spin. Move for the touchdown if they can get a lead and he can hammer the rock and shorten the game. I mean there's a formula for tampa certainly to win this game. You know. I think we're maybe maybe we're doing what we warned everybody not to do. And that's you know go overboard with what you last witness but there's something about. You had to go back to november first. Before kansas city covered a game and and they had a bite titter game they had a real edge. I think they really rose to the occasion here. Because i think they thought into their credit. I think they thought that was the team. That was a main danger to was the bills and they beat their ass. Yeah no i think that's true and and even texted you gonna get. Maybe maybe we are being too harsh dante bay. But i even texted you last week after tampa bay one after kind of watching that performance that i just i wasn't impressed with database performance. I really haven't been impressed with tampa bay all year long. They've won and found ways to win. And all of that. But i just their body of work just doesn't stand out to me astronaut texts you. I said the afc championship game is the super bowl. I remember wins again. Beats tampa bay so you know not gonna back off of that. I'm going to try to find more exciting angles to talk about as we go forward here over the next twelve days or whatever it is but well let me throw one edge it just want closure is a picture of the game you just watch the two games you just watch. They were able to get to josh allen. Numerous times we're allen could not get away from fresher and get out of the pocket. He did all year long. And oh hold on the bolt along well for starters. No one was open. He's done that all year long and been able to escape extend plays and then guys that were wide open downfield. Kansas city's defensive zach. How many times up the middle or off the edge. Do they get to josh allen who is arguably one of the. I dunno as one of the top five mobile quarterbacks maybe higher. I don't know. But they kill consistently got to josh allen. Whose evasive brady's a pylon. Yeah yeah i can't disagree with anything you said. They're frequent in evaluating that game from a buffalo standpoint. I don't mind the game. Josh allen played people are talking on the ball too long and look he had turnover issues especially in his first year but even in the second year to where we had some turnover issues he did take some sacks and kind put his team in some bad spots i look. He didn't really hurt his team. That badly in that game he had horrible fro should have been picked. He threw one bed. Pass on an out to digs. Just a quick out. He sailed up has but again he. He's back there he. He has them in the right place. The pre-snap routines. He did everything he's done all year long. The difference was other than beasley. Who's almost uncomfortable. Underneath davis was playing in a bum ankle. The not an excuse. He's they're big but he was rendered moot because he wasn't one hundred percent. Davis is there big guy in the red zone. They really never got to the red zone. You know what i mean. I mean the the wide receivers were not open in that game and they didn't run the football. The andy reid out coach. Mcdermott leslie. frazier's game plan was a train wreck. I mean it was one of the. You're literally going do we. Don't we pick one because they didn't blitz them and they were getting destroyed. You know playing zone and protected against the big play at some point in the game like that when you read how the game's going to create a turnover we you gotta blitz and hope he makes a mistake plus they should have been blitzing from the first nap of the game. Because we don't know about the guys toe i. It was a really bizarre game plan on both sides of the ball. They deserve full marks as far as they got. And i m. you know it's over. i say. Hey the better team won on. But i just thought their game plan on. Both sides of the ball was really pedestrian. They gotta coached they did. And even though the browns hung around too fancy out coach you know in in the divisional round game as well so i would expect the same here for areas. I mean i know. Aeriens is a pretty experienced guy but i would the same for him. I would expect byron left which to get out coached here in this one again. Just a lot of signs pointing towards kansas city was observed. Today win the lottery at this morning. Keep if leslie frazier. Gets the texans job. The bills get to third round draft picks. I haven't seen anything about that yet. But we've go. Leslie frazier go. Well before we move away from the super bowl. As i said props are gonna come out starting thursday night or friday at a lot of places and then obviously a lot. More things will get released next week. That's when i looking into i believe eric. Churches singing the national anthem. So i'll start looking at that. I don't know who the hell is doing the halftime show. But we'll work through all that stuff you're both on. Ats radio and over at aps. Dot io as well brian. What's your general approach to the prophet betting market. There are some things that you know you of like to take a look at annually or you just kind of looking based on the match up. How does that thought process. Come together for you know. It's it's the matchup i mean. They're they're things i think you look at. I know last year. I'm going from memory and i'm looking at the box score Yeah last year. I think and i told you. I'm playing danny sorenson to be the mvp and the game. Which is a long shot because williams could be the mvp last year. Run the ball. Mahomes got it. And his quarterback rating was seventy eight in the super bowl and he was on the. Mvp you know we know bradier or mahomes are going to be so charge. And the odds are they. One of them will win it but if it happens to be lower scoring or kansas city just kind of you know beats them up on both sides of the ball. But they get a defensive touchdown I can take a shot with danny sorenson to be the mvp. The honey badger sticks out sort of this orange and guy is a monster. I remember last year in the super bowl. That was my big play. The game i swear i swear to god of all things my big play in the game last year and this will be the case year. I'll find something. But my my strongest opinion and biggest bet last year in the super bowl was and i forget the exact number i think it was five and a half. I play danny sorenson over five and a half solo and unassisted tackles and he had He had six total if four solo tackles. So i'm gonna play sorenson. I know that i'll play. Sorenson tackles. I would assume he'll draw the match up on gronkowski. That was part of it. Last year he was going to draw the assignment on the On the other side of the ball kennel go well. I was gonna say i'm looking at the box. Go to make sure i to kill because make sure he play. He played because he's always hurt. But kittle had four receptions for thirty six yards. I could virtually guarantee you. Sorenson may three four tackles so if gronkowski is going to be a focal point of the. I do look to do that. If you have an offensive guy you think is going to have a big day with receiving yards. Who's the guy covering them if they're gonna target a guy you know twelve times. He's going get nine catches other than if he goes for a touchdown the guy covers gonna make seventy five percent of the tackles that the guy gets you know what i mean and number on the the defensive side of the ball but if he's the guy covering the guy you think is the focal point of the offense. You know you're getting the i hate the value. Where they you know but but the lower numbers the the guy that's going to be covering him and his tackles. So that's how i i do look at the game. I kind of go inside and try to find. Those kind of things were found edgy. Finding edge yeah. There are a lot of different ways to attack. This is patrick. Mahomes first touchdown last year. That was something that was a big swing for me. Because i was kind of about five hundred on props. When i hit that one pretty nice big price. With his one yard touchdown. I had a lot of different types of things. Damian williams i wound up having him over his total yards rushing and receiving. That was an easy one that came through as you said. He could've wound up very easily being the mvp in that game. I think about a lot of different things i think about. Who's going to line up with who i talked about. All the pre snap motion for the chiefs. So it's hard to take some defensive player stuff with tampa bay. But i'm sure i'll find some ways to do that. Then you also think about game state you know. How do you expect this to play out like you. And i are both talking about. We think kansas city wins. This game win this game comfortably. So that would mean brady is gonna have to throw a lot because tampa bay is going to be trailing in the game who benefits from that. Do i wind up being tyler johnson over receptions over receiving yards something like that thinking that the chiefs just decide what mike evans is not going to beat us. There's no matter what the score of the game. As mike evans will not beat us. So maybe they'll get johnson or scotty miller or somebody like that. You start thinking about that. I think about game state kind of what. The focal point will be. Generally wound up finding. You're the third receiver option. Something like that. I remember a few years ago in the super bowl brandon lavelle for carolina. I had him for any time. Touchdown i think first touchdown and a few other props that was the game re basically had his head ripped off with a two yard line of before we've been going in for a touchdown but basically got decapitated left the game with a concussion but he was right there on the doorstep for going over a lot of the prop. So that's kind of what i like to do. I like to find some defensive guys based on matchups then kind of find the guys that you know. Maybe people are expecting to be a huge part of the game plan but wind up being that way. Because it's the super bowl and you've got elite playmakers. Elite quarterbacks generally speaking elite to above average coaching mines. That they're gonna find other edges. I think we can play out in the market. Well you look at this last game. Devon whited fifteen tackles you know. He's a tackling machine. I don't know that necessarily plays out the same way Because kansas city's offense is designed but if kansas city gets a lead and then they go to the running game a lot. I mean a guy like that's a ridiculous number you know they're not gonna hang your twelve and a half tackles for white. It'll be something up there. It'll be something about eight and a half nine and a half. Probably total tackles on a guy like devon white. The one thing. I don't usually play these things. But i think with these two quarterbacks i may play the longest touchdown of the game. They'll probably hang up usually like forty two and a half forty three and a half. Some maybe longer i might play. We'll find out by the time we get there but both tampa bay safeties hurt now. Maybe they're ready to go by the time you get to the game but if you get some inexperienced safeties back there against mahomes i mean you you know. Those deep corners sets up somebody to run a nine rowden like wide open from homes. And like you think about it from last year. China's kelsey caught all six of his targets. But only for forty three yards. His longest catch was eleven yards so got to look at that game. And you think okay. Is san francisco match up nightmare tight end. George kittle going to focus on the match up nightmare titan on the other side and they absolutely did and they really did hold him in check. Now he did score touchdown for the anytime touchdown and all that but can had forty three yards only six catches so you start thinking about. What is the other team going to try to take away. Is there something that they understand your the absolute importance of prep for in practice. Something like that. I love the props. Props to me are my favorite thing of the entire. Nfl season because to me. I'm gonna sit there. I'm gonna get in the minds of all four of these coordinators and try to figure out what they want to achieve. And obviously we have a recent data point for andy. Reid you'll just having been in the super bowl. Last year and eric b enemy and spagnolo and all that but to me i think that's i think it's the most fun way to approach the props because i think kansas city wins this game in bog fashion but the numbers probably right. The totals probably right from a betting standpoint. Bet home to win the mvp. Because there's going to be probably even money or something like that to do it. I'm gonna find stuff. That's kind of off the beaten path a little bit. Maybe even some cross fort props just. We have a very diverse portfolio for the supermodel. Well you're going to the market but you're also going against the odds makers when you say you're trying to get ahead of the quarterback we try to get into the head of the oddsmakers in the betting public to the from the proper perspective. I mean i it was like to me. It was a license to print money in the last month of the season. The bills had a monday game. San francisco sunday night game with pittsburgh then saturday. They played a denver those kind of a nationally televised game because it was a saturday game and then they played a monday night game against new england. Four weeks in a row on the go really. You guys aren't gonna keep bumping number of strong opinions in the game themselves was i played. Stefan digs over like the one week it was like eighty nine and a half than the the highest he ever got until ninety two and a half and it was to change jinx jinx. Jink guys he leaves the league in targets. He leads the league in yards. He's in a total toe battle with kelsey for the to lead the league in receiving yards and they were going for they wanted him to get it and it was like believe me step on digs getting. The yardage was a saver. Play insider total in any of those games that in the bills covering the first half number which literally i mean you. Could you know we have lakefront property. So if i'm gonna have lakefront property. I'm not doing it in cleveland baltimore buffalo. Well i say that i'm not. I'm sitting on my patio looking at snow. But you know what i'm saying. Though you find those things that you keep waiting for these adjustments and sometimes they never come. No that's an excellent point and again we'll talk a lot more about props as we have some actual numbers to talk about instead of. Just kind of speculating where some of these things will be. But yet to me. That's the best way to attack the super bowl year in and year out. And yet even though i've got a pretty strong opinion on the chiefs here i'll still have a lot of products probably somewhere in the range of ten to fifteen prop bets That i do like and we'll be writing about over at the website and also talking about on the show here last thing but generally speaking the offensive players go over the total in props are on the losing side generally because if a team gets a lead in a team is one dimensional and then the teams go to the nonsensical cover two or preventive vents. And make take four minutes five minutes to score instead of wh why are you changing your frustrate. The hell out of them but it. But then you get that dinking dunk stuff where it becomes a fantasy football game and has nothing to do with the game itself. I mean the the guy if you remember what tony romo at the end of his career the fantasy gold mine of all fantasy. Goldmines was jason witten. It's it there. He'd be invisible. The whole game cowboys will be down. Seventeen jason witten would get one hundred yards on the last three possessions of the game where they would just throw ten yards and ten yards away and you methodically. Go down the middle because the defense was given them that point. I mean the problem is fantasy football. That's risk no. That's a great point and a lot of things to consider here for super bowl. Fifty five to say the least one of my favorite golf tournaments is also next week although clearly watered down here in the pandemic the waste management phoenix open of this week. We've got the farmers insurance open at torrey pines which will also host the. Us open this year. So even though there's an event over in dubai where guys like collin morikawa. Our hat is there. Tommy fleetwood is there which kind of surprises me with that major coming up here at torrey pines. We've still got a pretty good field this week. No dustin johnson. Tiger woods had back surgery again. Not miss. we're missing guys. Like patrick can't lay webb. Simpson stuff like that. So we got jon. Rahm the favorite seven to one at draftkings rory mcilroy about nine to one zander. Shaw flay san diego state product at twelve to one tony now. Seventeen harris english. Becky matsuyama patrick reed. All in the two thousand. Five's some very good players in the thirty and forty range this week. What happens is without can't lay and simpson and all of that. Some of the prices kind of gets spread out to some degree and with a couple of single digit guys in rahman rory we got some good value here at torrey pines this week brian. Yeah it's it's so early in the real quick undo by that you mentioned that it's not not the gloss over because you made me thinking i went and looked. Rory was runner up at dubai. This past week and tie hatton was just lights out. And now rory's traveling all the way to heck back. I'm sure in luxury but that's a lot of travel. But he wasn't good form didn't get any done on sunday. I always guys always play. Good over and dubai martin climber at forty two one who had a real solid last year. Henry stenson don't sleep on hinder extensive. He's i thought. I saw forty five to one fifty to one. He lives in hawaii and his game. Believe me is. I watched them late in the year. He can still stripe the three. Would you sixty one. Action is overly the henry stance and watch. Just throw that out there. Because i love the european tour. I don't think we talked enough about it. I mean maybe it's my fault. I think we should talk more about it. I love the european tour. And i think there's real real good. The problem with the european tour is unlike the pga tour at this is like golf. Used to be like you. Make your bets on wednesday and good luck to you know you watch the tournament and there's really not much in the states we can do about it you know. From fluctuating odds as the tournament goes on. But i love the european tour. I think climber and stinson are certainly worth a play there to give you a little something little run for your money there as for this one Rum withdrew last week with a tweaked bag. If he's okay he plays good here. No doubt remember the long snaky made on eighteen to one year to win it mcelroy. I'd throw out because of the travel. I hate chalk but zander. Shaw flee went to san diego state. He's on. He's a twelve the one i would think there's a day come in that he's going to win at torrey pines them. If it's not this one could be a major. That i would i would look at shaw. Fli leash man. I always bad you know thirty five to one. He's defending champ. So you kinda gotta look at stuff like that to Scheffler is a guy that can be a birdie machine but who is there was one of the guy told you was playing. It actually played some really good golf. I mean he's been making a lot of but i think he's close to winning too. So if i add to two picks coming sharply in horsham would be my starting point see and this is one of those tournament shaath. Twelve to one at draft kings horseshoe forty five to one. This is one where because of the length specifically of the south course where if you play seventy two holes here fifty. Four going to wind up being on that south course. You really can't take a ton of longshots here because you need guys that are big hitters. You need this is of course. It's very much about length because you've got that south course over seventy seven hundred yards. I mean that thing is a behemoth the north course is easier but you only play it for eighteen holes so to me. You've got to look at length in a tournament like this and a lot of the shot guys. Just don't hit the ball that far. That's why they're long shot guys. It's why you see that johnson's or hsieh's rabies in tournaments like this because they know they can't compete they. It takes three shots to get to a par five other guys getting their in to with ease so you gotta look at distance players here. In this event. I think and one that i started looking at also in that thirty to forty range. I think a lot of the good values are this week. Matthew wolff played really well here last year in his first start. That kid hits the ball a ton. Now maybe he's got some things to work out with the short game and stuff like that but you know this is about hitting the ball a long way being able to play. Well with those high irons giving yourself a six or seven iron in as opposed to three or four iron so i think matthew wolf at thirty four to one does make some sense here this week because again he is a guy that can shorten this course. I you know to a degree above watson is another one fifty to one long layoff for bubba but he led the feel last year in strokes game. Tina green. we know he's still hits. The ball a long way. He's played well. Here is one here in the past and something else that i kind of thought about here is that you'll for bubba watson. He won in twenty eleven. Took a few years off came back and played it last year. Maybe because he knew that torrey pines was coming up wanting to get some reps sear for the. Us open this year so he played last year. Now he's back here again. This year you guys know which courses kind of fit them know where they wanna play no why they wanna play them. I the idea that bubbas back here for a second year and it makes him pretty interesting. Fifty to one in the middle of finding. It's something interesting just with what you were saying. Now go one more year back and fun radio. Is this possible. They keep with a at the farmers insurance. I'm looking at the last. That's twenty nine hundred. The last three years a guy who described the merits a look. And i think he's a different player. Is jason coke wreck and he missed the cut in two thousand seventeen then three years in a row. He's a twentieth twenty-first twentieth. Jason cobra kai guy because he's kicked the door down now so he's got a win under his belt. He's playing with house money. A jason coke. Just listening to you. Describe what you think. It's needed to win this tournament. I would look at a guy like jason coke who won in vegas He almost wanted colonial is games. Getting better and better is a much better player. Plus now he knows how to win. I think coke. Rex worth a flyer. Here i'm looking to see what we got on him. Sixty sixty one sixty six to one. Yeah yeah go. Greg talked me into it. So i'll go go. I'd say shafi coke wreck and billy herschel as a starting point. Hey i like those three names like those surnames quite a bit one name that you and i did talk about before the show here. He is a massive long. I'm seeing him. Actually as highest two twenty five to one my head here last year. I know who you're talking about b homes. Yep now the problem here with gb homes is that he hasn't played in forever. I mean it's been at least three months since he's had a start. I don't even remember when his last start was but he doesn't have three top. Six finish here was sixteenth at the farmers insurance last year and again you don't necessarily have to bet him to win. But you know places like draftkings offer top five top ten towel by the way. It's vegas by the end of this year they said top-five i've begged phillies for decade. You know if you show if you get a guy like j. b. home that hundred seventy five to win you still get seventy sixty two one to be in the five. I mean i can't. How many times can can i run. Second up cedar. We were talking before we went on the air. I said on whether the danish guy go. Yeah alex noren. I had alex one hundred one. He lost what was it. The fifth extra hole. They had a play. Finish it on a monday against jason day. You know that great big great big loses in a playoff coulda had a top five forty. Two one was an offered right now. I think i think it's huge again. You can have a very diverse portfolio when it comes to gulf betting. Gb homes eight to one two finish in the top twenty four and a half to one to finish in the top thirty again. Maybe he doesn't because he hasn't played in a long period of time. But there's nothing wrong with taking guy. You liking futures market at thirty five to one but then also taking a look at him for a top in the five to one range or something like that. Lots of ways to bet golf in this legal. us market. And i'm glad to hear that you're going to have more ways to bet golf out there in vegas soon. No i'm counting. I'm trying to think which one was it. it had to be the safeway. I bet them in here. In the fall. I think it was the safeway open. And he shot seventy in the first round but saying that he was like one hundred one j b holmes. He was under through eight holes. He was the leader. And i'm like all right. Yeah you're gonna get a run for my money here and we then snowman double. That's the problem with him. Disaster is always looming kinney string together. And not he's kind of like the the longshot ricky fowler fowler fowler. You watch fowler. You watch game degraded. And he's right there and he's right there and then all of a sudden word rickie fowler. Go he took a triple. You know these guys. The can't avoid the train wreck you know. Who else is becoming that way as tony female. Oh my god working with a turn. No i mean if you watch this tournament sunday and you know patrick. Can't we played great shoots a sixty one c will kim was clutch down the stretch and one shot but how could have won that thing in sleep. He missed three to four years like to voters. it's he he can't get out of his own way. He literally sits here and goes. You know there's a point where he goes. Hey if i make this. I'm gonna win. And then he misses the whole by yard. I tell them it's unbelievable louis. The skill set. It's all there but there's oh oh that female should have won that tournament. That's amazing you bring him up. Tony fowler ricky female is always just calling those two guys and they're interchangeable ricky female tony fowler. Man i i feel so bad for dudes like i know people are going to sit there and say yeah. Well there's still make good money for finishing tied for fourth. Or whatever. But i root for ricky in every major and i'm going to get to the point now where i'm gonna root for female on every big tournament to just this because i can't imagine and there's there's nothing i hate more and golf a little bit different. Obviously there's nothing. I've ever hated more. And like when people should clayton kershaw because he's one of the best pitchers of all time but he hadn't won a world series. Oh he's so bad in the play up okay. The guy is also awesome every regular season. Get his team to the playoffs. Like i hate that narrative of guys that don't show on the big stage well who different because it's individual but man buddy executive same premise. I knew this was going to happen. And you know every dumb ass with the low hanging fruit and you know even even if they'd have won the thing that found a way to shoot holes out of there there's this big faction of alan haters out there. Why i you know whatever but up told you. That's i started this thing with you. Alan was terrible the big stage and told you he's nothing like guys. If you want to game. I mean there wasn't a whole hell of a lot. He could do there. No one was open. But but but that's your the quarterback you get the fraser. You get the blame. No absolutely dots on the farmers insurance open. Make sure you check out my preview over at ats dot co for that tournament. As well and brian will finish up here on the nhl side of things and something interesting. I threw it you here at the Before we started recording home favorites in the nhl so far thirty five and thirteen seventy two point nine percent on the season last year. Of course season was shortened. A little bit that we had the round robin games which are included. I don't know why but they are a home favorites last year. Fifty five point nine percent. Four seventy four and three seventy four so good last year fifty six percent but this year seventy three percent for the home favorites so far in the nhl gonna change. It's gonna change. And i think we're only six seven games in and we saw what happened with the caps where the four russian players went to the room. Got you know whatever they're out. These guys are learning protocols and all this other stuff it's the first time they've been traveling again in over a year. You know the bubble where they're all stuck there was the same boat. I think there's i. In fact i asked pete deboer this after the first road game in the post game press conference and he said no no no not that not to the point where it would impact the way we play. But i think it's a it's a real thing. They're learning the protocols what they can't do on the road literally these guys go to the rink and the hotel the regan hotel but they go to the hotel and they go to their room. There's no interaction. You know what i mean like these guys you go to your room and be a good boy. These guys are stuck in hotel rooms watching tv. They're learning the ropes on itineraries and schedules and how to deal with. Here's how here's how we have to do this on the road. So i think there's a real learning curve slowly but surely these teams now get it down and rhythm. Here's what we gotta do. We talked about this for the season. Start you watch teams on the back. End of a four game road trip mentally. They're gonna check out. Give me to hell home. I want to get on my wife and kids and the dog and his. I'm sick of being in his hotel room and they only been on the road for four games. It's a travel. I really believe that. Yeah i think so too. I think that we can also take some things kind of out of it. And you mentioned teams on those long road trips and i sort of look at montreal here where they were on a six game road trip and maybe vancouver is just not any good. I mean maybe that's a possibility or maybe montreal's awesome but the way they finish that road trip was a big surprise to me playing a third straight game in vancouver and they were dominant in the last two games there in british colombia. I think that maybe even know it is a small sample size. It's not a lot of data points for us to look at. We're finding out about the identities of these teams and to me when you spent like five days in the same city not able to go to your teammates room not able to do anything and you can still stay focused on the task at hand and play that well. History conference betting on a team like that. Do a a a stupid plug to plug no. That's fine all right. Buddy cam stewart. We have a podcast. It's called the hockey betting pa hockey bedding podcast the hockey bedding podcast dot ca. A he's an idiot and funny he. He's a boxer ox. He's literally i we. We laughed half the time. We're doing it. But the winners were given out honest to god man being dead serious following the sport forever and it's not rocket science and i would just you mentioned a team. I mean we'd love montreal. Think that's a great team. But honestly we nailed. That series would vancouver and i think you can do this and do these teams in so much of what's going on in hockey now or situational place. When montreal went to being couvert couvert sitting there at the time they had a one win. Like it was like. You're looking at it going. Their season is on the line here. I mean literally. We're early indices their seasons on the line. They have to win the game tonight. Montreal's better team. Dan cooper won the game six five. They were life and death but they won the game. Now you're two more games going okay. They gotta win better team then you come back with montreal who win comfortably the next two games. So they'll vancouver's gotta coming in last night and makeovers a dollar forty favorite and it's the same scenario that existed in the first game when they were hosting montreal going their season is on the line. The gm's under duress. He's on the hot seat but the funny thing is if you win three in a row you're right back in it but vancouver had beat ottawa. Last night they had to. They played eight games now. Teams already have games in hand on them. If they lost last night they'd have been in the basement. Ottawa well they what they win. They won seven one. They were a gift last night. And the puck line was plus a dollar eighty. Honestly these are situation place the sabres and one because swept by washington. What the philly philly had murder teams bubalo synagogue on our seasons on the line. Here you can't have a three-game loses. They won the first game against philly. I think it was six one honestly. Look at the standings in there are situations where you sit there. Go my god. This is a playoff game for these guys. Right there in front of your face in you know team to lose the first game come back with them in a revenge spot because they've got the desperation of the team that won the first game doesn't this is going to be. A hockey is always the best sports this year is. It's chink city. It really is the the philly philly and boston played the first game and i watched the sabers play. The flyers for a couple of games phillies a disaster in their own entering boston. Couldn't shoot it in the ocean. So they go. Okay philly boston. Five and a half like yeah. I don't know about that one. He's the goals are about to come. And certainly your boston's pissed that they're not scoring goals and i just watched the flyers play two games were. It was a fire drill in their own ended. Rink this game on thursday. The total is five and a half finals five four. So that's that's an over game. Two games in rio boston philly. They get five and a half five four six one. The oddsmakers only can do so much. And now you're throwing beckham. Goal is integration carter hearts all of a sudden playing like crap. It's only a couple of game window. Jerseys out of the gate wendy rough. He's doing a great job. Well we'll get new jersey well. These guys hadn't played seven. it missed. They're hungry got a new coach. There are fire and ice. And they're ready. Okay keep great good for him. I love lindy. Ruff is a friend. I you know. I'm rooting for him. Hard i knew after a dozen games waters going to find its level with jersey. You know what. I mean but right now. They're playing good. Yeah no i agree thank you can you can do a lot of. I don't even want to call it. Reactionary based stuff. But i mean to a degree. It kind of is tonight. For example. i look at a team national. This is a must win game tonight for national. You're a dollar seventy five favorite taking on chicago team. That's not very good. Has injury concerns missing some guys all that kind of thing. Give them credit. They battled after struggling with tampa bay. The other better teams they played but nationals already lost three in a row and in this fifty six games. Sprint you talking about this before the season even started you cannot have losing streaks. You just cannot do it. You have to stop them immediately and for nashville their backs up against the wall tonight. And should they be dollar. Seventy five favorite. Maybe not but you know maybe there is some price. Inflation built into that number just because of what. You've already talked about what we've seen play out already. Those anybody's listening. Don't don't go nuts. I mean it can lose. But i think tonight is one of the strongest plays. I've seen in a while again. I don't want somebody. you know. Bridge jumping here going nuts. But i just watched the sabers play the caps and the sabres took three or four points from the caps and i'm ripping them to shreds. I'm like you know. They got three or four points. But their goalie ullmark. His father passed away. They should have been playing like their life. Depended on it in the caps had four guys out and they lose the first game shutout the second game. They're getting punched in the mouth. Taylor hall got run off the puck up and they scored in the sabers. Did nothing nothing. No push back. I'm like these guys are soft but they get a ton of ability guys could score. Well they end up winning the game in a shootout. But i'm watching washington it was basically beckstrom and oshii and carlson. The defense those three guys against the sabers and they got. They got three hundred three possible for okay. They're playing the islanders today. The dollar thirty favorite coming in here. Tom wilson also got hurt over the weekend so the caps or minus five guys and the islanders are coming off a loss. I listen give them credit. They got points but at the islanders show up with estonia their shoe coming off a loss. The islanders win this game by three goals tonight. I really liked the islanders today. And the numbers telling you something there. A dollar thirty on the road to hell. Buffalo is a dollar thirty on the road against washington. The only the only difference is it's the islanders it. It was the sabers well. The islanders islands have way better goaltending. And they'll take advantage of the shortcoming that washington has at the moment in buffalo. Beat them the two games the way they shooter. Beat them the islanders. It'll be a dollar seventy here now. all right. i like the islanders are enough. Said don't don't please if you're listening. Don't go go nuts. What's the caps win or something. But i think the islanders step on their nick knight one other situation or ask you about is columbus your they finally make that do block trade and it didn't wanna train him. I mean know. He's one of the best players on the roster but it was a it was not a good situation at all. We of course saw that shift. You know where he wound up getting benched for the rest of the game against tampa bay and all that so columbus completes the trade. Get him out of there. There are a little short handed for their second game against tampa bay because they hadn't gotten line eight yet still. Don't have line a yet. He's got a pass quarantine or or whatever we still in our assume right. So commerce's shorthanded without. Do they had to shuffle. The line up a little bit and they beat tampa bay five to the other night tonight. Florida's in town florida bringing sergei brodsky back. That was another situation that was kind of uncomfortable for columbus for a while they fought. Oughta make that one work for the most part even the blue jackets. And you gotta think a team. That's very tight knit like they. Are you know with a guy in tortorella who sorta rela. Lets you know where you stand with him. I mean he's not a guy that you know kinda pull punches or anything like that is columbus playing on here in the short term now. They've got that situation behind them. It's a good question. They were a gold mine the other day. But here's the thing. Tampa bay won the cup. The collective sigh of relief when they win the cup. They won the cup when they be columbus columbus kryptonite. Columbus knocked them out the year before the first game in that series was what five overtimes columbus matches up with. Tampa bay. they they get up for them I think the five to win. The trade was made in the years out of the room and finally get the y out of here and they rallied around one another. I like twitter rela. I know he's an upper like columbus their grit and the whole nine yards but florida is just really getting their season started. I mean i think they'll they'll beat chicago coming up here. A couple of games get a split out of dow's columbus carolina down the roads a nice series. Then they get to more with chicago. They're going to do well here in in the you know in the next little bit i like. I like the makeup of the team In once he gets in there they'll get a short term bump like you said they don't have him yet. I'd be a little leery. I wouldn't be jumping on like right out of the gate In actually playing florida could be a letdown for them. After you know after beating tampa bay like that this could be a kind of a sketchy letdown spot. You know what i'm saying. I mean i. I liked the team. I think down the road They're good they're going to do very well but i- buyer beware for me against florida here if you look at the central division these teams now have to play fifty two games in one hundred days fifty dallas because you're the problem with Who was first dallas was first florida. Couldn't start their season. All right so florida then beat chicago a couple of games. And then there's carolina. Carolina gets so florida ford. There's healthy as they could be in. These guys haven't played a game since last tuesday. And they've gotta make up all these florida's done nothing wrong. Has anybody done anything wrong. It's all wrong way to put it but florida's a victim of two other teams having a problem so we don't know anything about florida yet other than their to in. Oh yeah maybe it over tonight. I mean if i if i would i would think the total would be a safer. It is it six or five and a half five and a half. Yeah i'd probably lean to the think bobrovsky still can't stop a medicine ball. He five four in overtime. The black the black hawks put up for on him. Yeah there you go. Merry christmas the over. I like it. I like a lot of what we talked about here on. Today's show with brian. Blessing sports radio and vegas hockey outline also contributed to our ats. Youtube page will have a lot of super bowl content coming up on including a lot of prop videos there from brian. But what about the two shows and also you mentioned the hockey bedding podcast. I guess you've got three shows going on right. The list is growing kid. It's fun tuesday's all you and me i got you. We do your thing in the morning and then You'll join me on sports. Radio would be two to four eastern on sirius channel. Two oh four and adam will be on with a scenario number one today of do that. With stevie slapshot oddsmakers handicappers both sides. That account. Got you governor. We vegas hockey hotline one. Pm pacific time ks. Hp dot com. You can listen to it live if you're a hockey fan. The hockey bedding podcast dot ca with cam stewart. All is nonsense is on my twitter at brian blessing. How's that keep it simple. Sounds at one thing though. I do want to say but you will. Do we do the videos for you but the next two weeks are crazy. You will we get a point by tuesday next week. We're sick of it. Play the damn game but then we get a second wind with all the props and every year. We'll be at sunset station early next week. During the shows but on thursday and friday its annual super bowl. Prop shows jacor as kind of the king of the props. We'll be over at the super bowl. Doing radio shows oscar goodman's come by He always comes buys always good fun. But we really dive into the props and the numbers that have moved and try to find you value and break down the game next thursday and friday our annual super bowl prop shows will be doing those over the super book at the west gate. Absolutely sounds awesome. Definitely looking forward to hearing about those and looking forward to be on your show today here this afternoon as well. Brian blessing host of sportsxradio and vegas hockey hotline at brian. Blessing on twitter. Thanks so much for your time man. Don't get warmed up. And i'll talk to you again here a little bit. You gotta help their you. Brian blessing always fun talking. Nfl nhl golf here with him on. Today's show coming up on wednesday's edition of ats radio. We'll chat with kiev. O.'neil from the odds breakers about his thoughts on suitable fifty five early side and total kind of his prop strategies. Then take a look at the college basketball side of things Taking a look at the big ten and some of the other games coming up here for this week. They'll do it for me. Thank you so much for listening. Everybody and we'll talk to you again tomorrow.

kansas city tampa bay super bowl josh allen danny sorenson Josh allen Kansas city buffalo browns packers green bay brady Baseball football nhl adam kelsey bills torrey pines
Previewing the NFL Combine

The MMQB Podcast with Peter King

19:19 min | 1 year ago

Previewing the NFL Combine

"Welcome to the M. I a mini pod. My shorter podcast of the week This is the preview podcast into the NFL scouting combine recording. It's Sunday night at my home in Brooklyn about eleven thirty PM. We're trying to get the column up a little bit early this evening and I'm trying to get to bed at a reasonable hour this evening. So let me tell you a little bit of what I got in the column this week and a little bit of what this week is going to be like a region the very top of my column too much happening for the last week of February. The new look primetime scouting combine kicks off in Indianapolis Will Joe Throw. I WON'T BE SURPRISED. If Mr Borough doesn't while interview rooms are full of prime college quarterbacks and receivers and while most NFL coaches in GM's meet the press on Tuesday thirty two NFL player. Reps and union officials will be in. Cba study slash haggling mode the NFL Players Association will be in Indianapolis to meet with NFL owners. There could be a ten year deal struck or the deal could blow up or something in between the competition. Committee begins meeting in Indianapolis this week. Actually they began meeting on Sunday evening in ten on trying to salvage the pass Interference Review Rule. That was a train wreck in two thousand nineteen. I'm GonNa tell you how I think it can be salvaged. Tom Brady veteran of twenty. Nfl seasons nine super bowls and one month being a free man will be hundreds. Or maybe thousands of miles away from Indiana but brady rumors will nip at the fringe of a big Newsweek with his ability to hit the market. Just twenty three days away. So we'll start with real footballer. What passes for it in the hallways of the Indiana Convention Center and IT Stadium Partner. Lucas Oil Stadium. Get ready for a week of stories of risers and fallers in the twenty twenty. Nfl draft although in reality not many players truly rise or fall at the scouting combine. So what I'm doing in doing in the column this week is I'm previewing the scouting combine. And I'm going to leave that right here. I'm going to talk about it right here on this podcast and then I'm GonNa talk about my suggestion to save the pass interference rule. I've got a long section of about The CBA talks and what a big week. This is In terms of labor and for his Labor Agreement. I'm not GonNa read you that you can go on my Go-to my column football morning. In America at NBC SPORTS DOT COM or at PROFOOTBALLTALK DOT com. So let's just get underway talking about the The scouting combine. It's a very rich draft at wide receiver above average at corner. Good at running back defensive tackle quarterback and suspect almost everywhere else. I ask Daniel Jeremiah. The worthy successor to Mike. Mayock in the twenty-eight our NFL network televising of the event beginning Thursday from four to eleven pm to give me his top ten in this draft entering the combine along with his early. Mock top ten. They're pretty different. Actually the Mach Number One Cincinnati Joe Borough quarterback Lsu number to Washington chase young edge rusher Ohio state number. Three Detroit Jeff. Oh Khuda cornerback. Ohio state number four New York giants Mekki Becton Tackle Louisville number five Miami to a tag of Loa quarterback Alabama number six the chargers Jed Rick Wills Tackle Alabama Number Seven Carolina. Derrick Brown defensive tackle Auburn number eight Arizona tristen worse. Guard Iowa number nine Jacksonville. Isaiah Simmons Safety Linebacker Clemson number ten Cleveland Andrew. Thomas Tackle Georgia. So that isn't exactly the same way that Daniel Jeremiah has his ten top ranked players in order. He goes one chase young to Derrick Brown three Joe Borough Four Isaiah Simmons Five Jeff Okuda six to a tag of Loa seven. Giovane kin law eight CD lamb nine Jerry Judy CD Lehman Jerry. Judy both wide receivers and ten Maki. Becton the tackle from Louisville. Then I get into some specific measures at the combine the headlines. Opinions are interesting heading into the official start of the draft season. Let's start with the Hawaiians health. Every quarterback opinion in his draft is prefaced with if to a tag tag of Ole is healthy as in if two is healthy and surgically repaired hip checks out. He won't go below Miami at five but that's a big if takeover low as marvelous prospect but he had to high ankle sprains and a major hip injury and his last fourteen months of college football. This week gives thirty two teen medical staffs the chance to poke and prod and evaluate the hip and a probe whether his injuries will become professionally chronic. Or whether they're flukes. It's a really important week for him. If I'm picking let's say five six or seven. Jeremiah told me Saturday night. You've got. The Dolphins chargers panthers. That's the quarterback alley right there. If I'm the dolphins and I'm picking five and my doctor tells me look and he needs to sit out the entire season to get one hundred percent healthy but in my opinion the odds are in our favor. Then you pick them. I wouldn't even care if you redshirt him. Now the borough coronation. He'll speak to the press Tuesday morning and be asked whether he intends to play for the bengals if picked first overall by Cincinnati. That's one story the rest of his story the Bengals and those hoping he falls to them will continue to probe is pass particularly. This one team told me of Burwood left. Lsu after his mediocre two thousand eighteen season that team would have given him approximately a fifth round grade. Now he's likely to go number one. That is after fifteen otherworldly games in two thousand nineteen do you realize and I didn't realize this until I started looking at it. The Joe Borough had sixty touchdown passes and six interceptions in fifteen games in two thousand nineteen. I mean that's amazing so I asked Jeremiah about that. And he said. Look Joe's training an hour for my house with quarterback coach Jordan Palmer. He was out there with Sam. Darnold Josh Allen and Kyle Allen I went up and watched him worked at work out and throw then I had a chance to visit with them and I said Joe you're going to get asked this question at the combine. Why the unbelievable leap from last year to this year? He said first of all. He's a Grad transfer most Grad transfers transfer in the spring. He said I got to Lsu after the freshman at already reported for full camp. So you talk about trying to learn everything in a heartbeat and try to get to know your teammates and then plug in and be ready to play. That's the first part second party. Hadn't played much football in the previous three years and then schematically and this is the big thing they were in a lot of seven man protection in that offense last year burrows greatest gift and you can see this year when you watch him is he has the vision to be able to take a snapshot of the entire field to see everything to process to throw accurately well. When you're in seven man protection you limit the number of guys that can get out and root. You're limiting the answers. You can give somebody. He was handicapped by them. Trying to mass protect him and I went on further in the story but the bottom line is that under new offensive. Assistant Joe Brady in two thousand. Nineteen they started with six man protection and then five-man protection and Joe Borough was consistently getting to pick from his choice of four or five receivers on almost every route is. Jeremiah told me. His super power is the ability to see the entire field so they kind of unlock that superpower this past year I told Jeremiah. You've got to tell America that story on TV this week. He told me I've only got twenty eight hours. Then we got into his opinion about chase young. The Ohio State Pass rusher. He said he might be better than Nick. Bosa might be with. Last year's first round rusher Montanez sweat and quite possibly formidable veteran Russia Ryan Kerrigan in place. Washington could have one of the game's best pass rushers on day one if they take young. Jeremiah told me there's some guys you just don't trade off of I don't trade away from quarterbacks and I don't trade away from a leading edge rushers because that's how you win football games and there's an embarrassment of wide receivers are an embarrassment of riches it wide receiver last year in the draft. Twelve receivers went in fifty two pick spin between twenty five overall in seventy six overall. It's amazing how many had instant impact in year one marquees Brown Terry maclaurin Deebo Samuel. Aj Brown McColl Hardman and decay metcalf. This year Amazingly Daniel Jeremiah's given twenty seven receivers top three round grades. And he says the best draft for receivers. He has ever graded. He said. I think the class this year goes deeper than last year I maybe had eighteen or nineteen players would top three ground top three round grades. It make sense with the way the Games being played these college teams are playing four and five receivers at a time. These guys are catching a million balls in. Nfl offense is still are asking these guys to swallow a phonebook playbook when you look at what he deebo. Samuel did in the Super Bowl. You just get the ball in his hands. Use them in the run game throat him everything. So that's the end of a lot of what I wrote about the combine. I shorten at a bit because I got a little wordy at times with the combine discussion. Go to football morning in American you can read it In this in this week's column so got another section in the column about the crummy pass interference rule which seems doomed. And then I write. But I've got an idea how to save an important part of it. So here's where it stands right now. The weekend before. The start of the scouting combine is usually the weekend we start hearing about new rules in rules tweaks from the League office in the Eight Man Competition Committee that began in Indianapolis on Sunday featuring discussion about the two thousand nineteen rule that turned into a weekly conflagration around the league. Ofensive IN DEFENSIVE. Pass interference calls and non calls being reviewable after conversations with coaches others close to the process and one person close to officiating over the past month. I just can't see this real surviving in its current form and maybe not at all what happened last year. Clearly was there was a different standard to overturn calls. Either made or not made on the field that past thirty one to one by club owners at the March. Nfl meetings there had to be assault and battery on a receiver. Three or four seconds before the ball arrived for a no flag to be turned into a flag. I jest but not by much. The rule became a sideshow as you all saw in. That room was passed in two thousand nineteen on a one year trial basis. I just do not see it. Getting passed in two thousand twenty. So this is my idea. Let's say owners get to the League meeting in Florida in late March and the League sees no way to get a three quarters. Vote for the rule as is. I think that's likely the impetus for this rural was to provide a failsafe for plays like the one in the NFC championship game thirteen months ago. With one forty nine left in the fourth quarter of a twenty twenty game New Orleans quarterback drew brees threw the White House. Tommy Lewis inside the Rams ten yard line defensive back Nicole. Roby Coleman slammed into Lewis clearly before the ball arrived no flay the non-interference called force the saints ticket. A field goal the rams tied it with a field goal to force overtime in the rams won in overtime. So I say let's leave the failsafe in place create a rule in say the last three to five minutes of the game to prevent a catastrophic play like the one in that title game allow The New York Officiating Command Center to ride herd on the last three to five minutes of every game. Allow them to call for a review of calls either made on the field that look shaky or calls not made looked like they should have been flagged. The amount of time is malleable. If it's three four five minutes that's fine you know. I wish the rule could've worked but I see the league's reticence to see the game slowed with challenge given that the league and probably majority owners. Don't want the rule in its current state. They're still away for an amended rule to save games fermenting with a terrible call or non call in the waning seconds. The League should strongly consider it so I go over all. That's at stake in labor negotiations. I I know that that's a big sort of inside baseball story. I guess in this case it'd be inside football but you know I struggled with what to do with that because I did a lot of reporting this week on the CBA and what might cause it to fail and and all that and I just wonder how much people really care in part because the currency does not expire for fourteen months. So it's not like football is going to go away so I wrote about it at some length you can read about it in the column but I just don't choose to to read it because I think part of it I think it's much better to be able just to read it and to try to soak it in So tell you one. Quick King of the ROAD SEGMENT IN THE COLUMN. This week. Fm I as travel correspondent Al Michaels reports from his weekend in Las Vegas. Michaels had a conversation with a couple of hotel executives. There a normal weekend in Vegas. They said season influx of about three hundred thousand visitors but on the weekend of April twenty. Three through twenty six the NFL draft will be in Vegas as Michaels told me they say there could be between six hundred thousand seven hundred thousand coming to the city for the draft. It could be the biggest weekend for visitors. They've ever had their ladies and gentlemen. The power of the National Football League ran a lot of letters this week. Manna got flooded with him. After last week's column you'll enjoy those and we'll wrap up with my do Haiku my CBA gut feeling not optimistic. It gets done this week. Everybody thanks a lot for listening to the FM. I A mini pod this week. I'll be back on Wednesday. I'm GONNA have a lengthy conversation with Daniel Jeremiah. Basically a previewing in introducing this year scouting combine. Also have Jerry Judy define receiver from Alabama with the conversation this week so comeback on Wednesday and you will get your combine Jones satisfied. Thanks a lot for listening and have a great week.

Daniel Jeremiah National Football League football Joe Borough League Indianapolis Lsu Ohio NFL Players Association Cba Washington Tom Brady America Alabama Louisville Joe Throw Indiana Joe Brady Las Vegas
Zoltan Pozsar on What Just Happened with the Treasury Market

Odd Lots

44:25 min | 5 months ago

Zoltan Pozsar on What Just Happened with the Treasury Market

"Hello and welcome to another episode of the pots podcast. I'm tracy alloway joe weisenthal. So joe. it's well. There's been a bit of drama in the treasury market once again. Yeah i noticed. you've got to do one of your tracy. Loa signature things. Were you talk about a move. That happened that's supposed to happen. Like once. every three billion years yes I love talking about those because it really gives everyone the opportunity to show that they've read to books by saying that the world isn't normally distributed but of course out we did see some pretty big moves in the treasury market so first of all the ten year yield jumped up to one point six percent. This was in the last week of february but the really big move came in the five year. And i think that one had something like a seven or eight standard deviation. Move one of those things. That's supposed to happen in like ten million years kind of things and really i know people make fun of standard deviations in sigma events. But really we're talking about the world's most liquid market and stuff like this keeps this. Is i think the fourth big bout of treasury market chaos that we've had in just a couple years so i'm thinking back. We had one in What was it. september twenty nineteen. We had repo madness. Then we had the march joss in twenty twentieth delivered. Us t trades boeing up and then we had a mini rates blowout in october twenty twenty. And now we just had the most recent incident so something is going on and clearly. There is a persistent issue in the us treasury market. There's a lot of things going on at once these days because there seems to be ongoing structural issues questions about liquidity which is weird in a the world's most deep and liquid market and be a market in which the fed is actively supplying a lot of liquidity or very active in the market. And then of course it's interacting with the economic situation nine policy situation because we have this fed that said we're not going to raise rates until the economy hits these benchmarks. Everyone's watching to see the fed's credibility we also have a very rapidly improving economy. We have people warning about inflation for the first time so all kinds of things happening once but yes to your point the big action we've seen we've seen rates at the long end year. Thirty year yields have been rising for awhile since the middle of last year. But it's really the action at the shorter end at striking here. Yeah and of course one of the weird things about last week as you mentioned the economy but we had this big tantrum in bond year yields without a corresponding taper. I guess so. We kind of had a temper tantrum because not that much changed last week. We didn't have fed speakers talking about rates rising or anything like that but we have this huge move in the bond market so a lot of focus on micro structure at the moment a lot of focus on liquidity ease of trading and the overall or of the treasury market. And we have a perfect person to talk about all those things. We're going to be speaking with zoltin. Pose are from credit suisse. I care wait. Let's do it yeah So zoltin i should say in addition to being a strategist over credit. Suisse has also been on the thoughts podcast multiple times. So we will be getting you that tote bag Any day now zoltin. Thank you so much for coming on. Gotten thank you very much for having. I should say one more thing. Which is that every time. There's any volatility in the rates market. Someone ibiza. it says you guys gotta get zoltan on get. It happens every time. Anything takes higher on screen of like overnight funding rates. Whatever like when you have exultant back on the episode so this is a lot of requests for this one. Sorry go on okay. Well on that. No i mean why. Don't we start out with the big question. So every time. There's some sort of chaos in the rates market. Joe gets an ib asking for you to come on the show. There have been a lot of those over the past couple of years and as we were discussing that something you wouldn't necessarily expect for the world's must liquid market so what's going on here. And why do we keep getting these sort of Mini blow ups in rates. I think people get taken out of their positions all the time I mean just to just set the set the stage for the conversation. I think there's there's a number of things that are happening That has happened last week for a number of east now and really since the The democratic when and the blue sweep the treasury curve has been steepening quite remarkable. I mean relative to The slope of curves in germany and france and japan. You know the. Us treasury kirk has gotten quiet. Steve per a number of reasons you had you had The blue sweep. You have the vaccine rollouts. Which is you know happening in the us More rapidly perhaps in other parts of the world you have The market starting to price in recovery The market trying to price in the inpatient and the market is getting Excited about the idea. That book surely comes some fed action and that that is going to try to chase down version of keep it in check and to all of these things. I think have driven the steepening of the curb. But you know the the interesting thing. Is that the steepening of the curve. Has been fairly ordered. Okay and so what happened. Last week was a little bit plumbing related but again the the underlying structural driver of rising yields has been more fundamental. Given what happened last week i would say that number to central banks. That's quite a bit into headlines last week and that got. The market's a little bit jittery. I think never some headlines around The are biens ads and there were some headlines around the rb a you know with the rbm. i think what What didn't have the situation was. The market interpreted the headline that the the finance minister of new zealand has forced a new mandate On on on the reserve bank of of museum which is house price star. Getting in house prices have been through the roof in new zealand. So hikes are coming because of that which is which is absolutely not the case. I mean you know. The rbm says is policy mandate is pretty much unchanged price too busy to mandate they have their Full employment mandate they have their Financial stability mandate and all that has happened. Is that that financial stability demand. They've got a more explicit piece to it. Which is you know looking at house prices. More carefully In the future particularly house price dynamics driven by up second home buyers and an investment properties buyers those number one number two the rb had breached euchre targets. Okay and so. The market was looking very closely at The three year point in the in the australian government bond market and it got you know one basis points do basis point three basis points higher than the yield curve targets and. The rb didn't do anything and so because the rb was slow to respond to to to the debris from that yorker starting at I think the market got quite spooked by that. You know australian accounts did try to get long Australian bonds but you know things. Were moving so fast and prices are getting so much that They got limit down very quickly. So if you couldn't take advantage of. The south in the australian yields. What a lot of accounts in australia and of done is they have rather shortage You us treasuries and so now. We are in tuesday wednesday timeframe and then by the time. We got the thursday in the us. We had a scheduled seven year auction And that auction brand absolutely horribly. It was one of the most On in recent memory. I forget how far you have to find something as lowly subscribed and you know that also had some technical driver to it. Because you know in the us are in this kind of no man's land from from a regulatory perspective. Barry backward full us that are normally have big presence in in these In his auctions have been a bit on the sidelines nathan. Because there's a big question mark in the us regarding the treatment of off treasuries. You know he's going to get extended near the exemption from the esa laura or not So so there was a a lot of uncertainty about that and then you know you mentioned the five year point. I mean it so happens that you know when a popular trade in the us has been you know people shorting the five-year being short five year and Long the thirty year and you know all. These rates market dynamics were happening. And the market those questioning central bank's commitments to low rates for a long time. People were just shaking out of these Carry positions then you know we have a financial system that is highly levered. 'cause rates are so low right so one way of generating a decent amount of return low risk low yielding assets. Is you let her it up. And every time you have a change in expectations and your understanding of the world and for how long the central banks should be accommodated You got shaken out of these decisions and and things are quite volatile happens so there's obviously quite a bit Going on here. And i the way you laid it out is really great and of course it seems like a classic finance thing that even though there's a lot of different things somehow randomly gets kicked off by policy choices at the reserve bank of new zealand of the reserve bank of australia. And then it spills into their. You mentioned the r. And the questions about that. And in fact some of the issues that i get when they like when they want to hear you on it specifically about that what is it. I'm aware that something. Some decision has to be made at the end of this month. That's going to affect our bank liquidity. But sort of describe what. This sort of this ambiguity. That's hanging over. The market is and how that is affecting rates market liquidity. So this is a big topic. I you know trying to think through how to attack the question one. The there's lots of ambiguities right. So you know. First of all we have an exemption currently in place which says that you know reserves just success at central banks and treasuries that are banned. Colds are exempt from calculating the supplementary leverage ratio so these these leverage ratios are much higher because of that now and exemption was put in place in april i last year and it set to expire and the end of this month march thirty and so no one knows whether it's going to get extended whether it's going to be renewed temporarily or or if it's going to but it's going to get extended permanently but there's going to take away you know a letter from a senator brown and senator warren during the headlines today Yeah they've sent the letter to to the federal reserve arguing against making this exemption permanent There are ideas that have been put forth by The professor darrell. Darrell duffy at stanford that you know maybe only reserves should be exempted permanency but not treasuries That would be more in line with the global standard. Where you know. The ecb has exempted reserves. The smb has exempted reserves for days by the way ended at the end of december Already in the bank of england the reserve so that would be more in line with the international standard but the downside of that would be that you know the banks would be forced to sell treasuries because you know your balanced constrains And only reserves are exempt from the laura and you bought a lot of treasuries last year. Then you'll have to sell oldest treasury. So that's that's what is This uncertainty as you know when it comes to the lottery. There's really two things that you want to think about. The first is that we are not done these. Qe and the are not done with you. Know the the wall of gas fitting banking system had so there's things on the horizon and the ads. We are focused on number one treasury. Cash balances are coming down. I mean you know. That's one point six trillion dollars of cash sitting in in a in a in a bank account that the federal reserve and and those balances come down reserves in the banking system are going to go up and number two. Tv's ongoing and it's one hundred and spending billions of dollars a month you know at face value. Fold a treasury cash balances. Come down to zero and q. He proceeds this year. We are going to be adding two to three trillion dollars of cash into the banking system. And so the banking system does not have the balance sheet to take on two to three trillion dollars of cash without s allowed relief. You sort of thinking those and then the other problem is ad you know. The ban on stock buybacks ended and the banks are getting ready to to return capital to shareholders. And and and if you if you buy stock and his exemption does not happen then you basically are in a position where the banking system is going to return capital to shareholders that would otherwise have been used to take on more reserves and and and and treasuries in the in the system. So when we talk about this exemption be kind of think about it that this magic bullet. That's going to allow the banking system to take on two or three trillion dollars of reserves. So let's assume that that s exemption have you know these hassle or exemptions really matters for the for the handful of big banks that that really are key for pretty. us financial system and these things are J. p. morgan wells. Fargo citibank bank of america. I would have split. Pnc in the bucket those vows. So these are these are the banks that are too big. Repositories of deposits and reserves and treasury securities and they are the banks that have been underwriting. The fiscal and monetary expansion all of all of last year so. Let's assume that the renewed exemptions so what would happen would you know abandoned. Jp morgan be in pole position to put on another five. Hundred billion dollars reserves the fed and another five hundred billion dollars of deposits as the stimulus checks. Go out. the answer is no because you know j. P. morgan has two constraints. It has an esa lar- constraint and it has a jesus constraint so even if you exempt reserves and treasuries from the esa lar- then bank is still going to be in a position to take on massive amounts of new deposits and additional reserves and additional treasury securities because that book push their jeep score and their gbs surcharge from four percent. Four and a half percent and their management is repeated a number of times that they don't want to have a higher jessop score and they don't want the higher capital ratio than five and a half percent. Okay so you know. Sr exemption or not. You know jason. Morgan is not in a position to take on a large amount of additional reserves. So that's number one number two you know wells fargo bank that i had been writing about A lot recently wells fargo is in a unique situation because they they are under an asset grow them okay and they they have been put into that place because of past issues they have had an a sad has put them in in this acid growth position. So you know the the analogy there is if you think of the. Us financial system the seven. Four seven a boeing. Seven four seven. it's really have been it. It really has been flying on three engines because the fourth engine you know is just not worth working at the moment that that's wells you know if you have an exemption you're still not gonna help wells fargo because they can't grow their balance sheet much. Okay so that's that's the second and third seed bank is you know it's a unique creature right because it's half global half. Us it's mostly an institutional bank not a retail banks or doesn't have as big a retail presence as j. p. morgan or or bank of america. So you know the stimulus checks are going out and all this cash. That's coming into the system you know. They're positive growth. Is you know not going to be as big as it would be for j. p. morgan and and and bank of america. And you know the other thing about cities that they slept line their balance sheet since the third quarter of twenty twenty so they haven't really been growing they're balancing That much then. We have bank of america which is a banged up would absolutely Benefit from really. Because they don't have a jesus issue like j. p. morgan And you have you know. Pnc bank which is a which is a large regional. Bank would say probably borderline national bank. Because it's so big and so you basically have to banks that would be the primary beneficiaries of of an esa relief. Then you need to stop there because every time the sad makes a decision about a lot of relief and and all these changes to to the basel architecture they use something called a impact study and the aim of this impact studies. Basically Quantify you know what type of a quantity benefit the system guests by doing this rule change and you know if you come to the conclusion that all these large banks are trying to help. We are only going to benefit one or two not the entire class. Gbs should be really do this or be getting a lot of mileage out of Out of ece lotteries. And i think you know the answer. There is is not really because again you are going to be looking at find banks and really only two of them are going to be able to absorb a lot of reserves and and treasuries and when you look at the scale of things to come you know two to three additional liquidity. It's clear that even those do banks are not going to be able to absorb all of that liquidity so observational number. One you know. How do you justify when when the when the universe of bang stuff can benefit from this on scale. I e your ability to add balance capacity to the system is is not that big to begin the studying. Definitely one thing that they are going to They're going to look at the second. Because you know everything that we're talking about is basically about. How do you absorb the additional cash. That's going to come into the system this year. the second aspect of of it is is this The esl are exemption is is very important from the perspective of stock buybacks right. So a lot of these banks move say We have a lot of access capital and what that means is that they have a lot of excess capital relative to recreate it assets You know re speeded assets are basically loans and you know the bank's credit portfolios but loans have not really been growing and the banks have had a a stock buyback ban that has been in place since april first so basically old ole net income to the banking system has been generating for the past twelve. Months has been retains And you know that added to banks Capital base so You know when the banks are saying of a lot of access capital that excess capital relative to risk weighted assets but it's not ex- capital relative to older reserves treasuries that have been accumulated Last year as as the fiscal and monitors underway. And so you know essel are exemption. There is essential for the banks to be able to start returning some of these access capital to shareholders. But again you know. That's a capital return aspect and not necessarily to make it easier for the bank's return capital shareholders. But it won't necessarily add you know balanced capacity to to to design. And that's what makes it so complicated as a decision for the fad. So i guess to two related questions. One during the february bond market drama. Like how much did s our concerns way on dealers in european. I know that you liked to call around a lot of the banks sort of pickup market color when these things happen so i'm just curious how much that came up. And then secondly what could the fed do to sort of relieve balance-sheet pressures instead of extending l. Are if you think that it's not necessarily the most efficient way of doing that. Okay well. I think i think the way last week in in the treasury market and and nbs lar- question are related is actually not true. Not through the dealer balanced. It's basically the bank portfolios that you want to think about it. So every every large as bank is going to have a dealer subsidiary. And what's the bank operating subsidiary and he's the banks that have older reserves and all the treasuries dealers have obviously a treating will be in the grand scheme of things that that's tiny so when you get an auction that was bad. Okay a large part for that. That auction is basically because bank portfolio doesn't show up because the bank football polio doesn't know what's going to happen and sell our exemption. Management is getting the balance ready for stock buybacks. If you wanna buy stock you. Basically and exemption does not happen than You will be you know. Trolling balance-sheet capacity away to basic carry Liquid assets. And if you do that you know it's much better to do that when you have less treasuries and more reserves so you know the the esl are exemption angle here is just basically you know having these exemption being resolved already. And if we have clarity on it and you know maybe the fat you know extended Permanently banned the banks would have been more present than that auction and so things would not have gone Best you know what happens with with again you know. The these. These carries traitors getting shaken out of their positions dealers are going to kind of intermediate these things. But you know in in real time. I guess you know you always have these air pockets that the dealer set the intermediate to invent flows go one way and then create the other ray. I mean it's never a smooth process. But i will say that you know dealers. Intermediation capacity was impaired by any means. Because because of these s our deliberations it's more like or bank portfolio duet show up at the auction and take down the treasury's or or not you get a second question tracy. But i forgot was oh so the second question was if the s alar extending s exemption isn't the most efficient way of fixing this problem. What could the fed or regulators do instead again. I think i think you have to you have to go back to. Qe one and qe qe qe. Three you know that Two thousand and eight to twenty fifteen period to see how the system absorbs the community about The that's putting by central banks. You know the reason why. And bring up queue on threes. The fed's balance sheet expended. That a great deal to but half of the liquidity went to the large american banks and the other half has gone to the foreign banks. What makes last year an anomaly. Is that all of these security. Let's get into the system. Went to the american banks and it stays with the american thanks. You know when you look at you know the the foreign banks holdings of reserves of the fed It's been largely flat. Okay so you basically have to case studies where you know. We have a big downpour of liquidity. It's all going to the american banks and then we have another downpour. Victory earlier in history. Where half here half over there. What is going to happen. If the american banks are going to have balance sheet strain well The system is going through josh You know the stimulus checks that are going to come in Those are going to be hitting people's bank deposits you know these are old retail deposits that every bank lobs and you know when the stimulus checks. Go out you know. It's obviously going to be jp morgan bank of american and an all these big national banks that are going to be getting it. But that's going to put them in a position where if they have fixed quantum of balance sheets. Because that's all. I really doesn't happen then. They are going to have to take a hard look at their deposit base and say okay. Well we are getting good retail deposits. We have some institutional deposits to some of it operating some of it not operating non-operating basically excess cash that these institutions just park with large banks. And then you know the bank is going to be in a position where they are going to have to turn some of these institutional deposits away. There's a number of wasted to doing that. I mean you're basically dealing corporate treasurers so you will pick up the phone and tried to negotiate with them you know. I can't hold it in the bank but you mind moving over to my acid management arm and putting it into money fund. Or if that doesn't work you can put Put a fee on you. Know these deposits. Some of the banks are doing this already I'm not going to mention meech bank but one thing for example In january started to charge institutions for deposit balances that are above their december thirty source level. And you know there's just a apply bay of saying that. Look if you place more cash with me. There will be associated with that so you know. That's that's one very of encouraging depositors. Move cast from one bank to another or from from the banking system to do To to money funds and then the thirteen year gonna do is you're going to move concentrates negative and you know this is not. This is not theoretical because if you look at j. p. morgan's fourth quarter earnings prison. You know they have a very interesting slide on this bad you know we. We are now approaching balance-sheet constraints we have all these deposits coming in the only asset. Truly we can deploy these deposits into cash. The fab sundays is points Or become by treasuries which you know the tenure point that kill great but otherwise you know treasuries are not not really a good Good investment opportunity and banks to begin to. They're not very excited about buying treasuries. And you know these are all very low. are we type activities and low. Roa means you're diluting your your banks performance and you know if you have a fifteen percent the roi target and old balanced growth. That you're getting is is happening in these in these in these little spread assets than you. Basically the with your. Your banks are released. So you know the the point of this disparaging. The earnings presentation was that for us to improve the economics of business given all his downpour. Mcvitie on the system expansion that the fed is forcing on the banking system. We will have to move or ozzie traits negative. Because that's the way are going to be able to meet our our earnings targets. And so you know when you bring in this negative Deposit traits idea into the picture than you know. The the picture you know starts to fall together because what's happening here is that as the liquidity comes in banking system becomes balance-sheet constrain. They are pushing the money away into money. Funds and bill market. Because not everybody is going to in in in money funds and so you know the the idea of negative billiards. Which is you know a regime where we are at the borderline in already. You know this regime of negative deleo goes hand in hand with negative deposit rates or fees on bank deposits. Because there's so much gasping the banking system just doesn't want to hold it and you know that money is getting pushed around in the system and and be trying to find a home for it and you know giving your very long winded answer. But basically what are what is the technology to basically deal with this technology quote unquote. You know we have a two for which is the reverse repo facility right the money that is going into the money funds Funds need an assets to invest this cash into and so you know really be as simple as whatever money. The banking system doesn't want any money from the money should be able to place in the reverse repo one four one. There's one problem in disarray. It's cabs at thirty billion dollars per counterparty. Which means that. If you're a large money fund and you have fifty billion dollars of those coming at you because you know p. Morgan just pushed the fifty billion dollars. You will only be able to thirty billion of that in the reverse repo facility and remaining twenty you will be investing at Rates below that potentially a negative interest rates. You know then the money funds can get into a situation where if i can invest a negative rates only My marginal infos. I'm not going to win that money. Because money is not supposed to break the buck and not breaking the bacchus. Pa is possible. Only if yields and your investment universe or above zero so number of money funds that you talked to the especially the larger ones are contemplating gating inflows and basically shutting the door To new money and then you get into dynamic for the bank doesn't want to get the money. The money doesn't month to get the money so then the bill market remains this kind of ultimate shock. Absorber that's going to take the insoles and that's how you get to negative. Bill yields basically between now and and the beginning of of summer. What isn't fast can't do the could simply uncapped use of these. Rpi facility. And i think that would go great lengths to to ensuring that there is a flexible supply of of an asset for money from comebacks Where you can invest gas at least at zero or wants to raise the the period from zero five days is when you have a marginal asset for forty for the money fun complex that pays five basis points and then and then you don't have any of these issues and you know that's my. I have been arguing. And in my in my recent pieces that far more important than raising the price on the reverse repo facility is to on the use of that because you know he's again only x. Amount that fight at five basis points. Once you're beyond that amount you will be lending cash at rates less than five as points and you still get into these vitamins. So we've been talking a lot about plumbing obviously and this is sort of The key story and the issue of like where to put all this extra cash and the lack of vehicles to place it. You know we just have. We have a few minutes left before we go. I want to get back to something you know. In your first answer we talked a little bit also about positioning and how low rates the only way to compensate for low rates is leverage. Some of the issues with australian investors have to Short the us treasury market to sort of hedge the fact that the The belly of the australian curve was blowing out. Let's go back a little bit to that. And how much is that part of the story of the sort of concentrated positioning see. Ta flows And how much is that part of the story that we've seen how much of that is still built up. How much had to sort of tension is there. And how much is that a dissipated with last week shock. I think i think a lot of this has the sa- positions have shrunk right so short belly along the back end. I think those positions have been downsized Relative to last week. I think i think we also had this episode of you. Know what's how how committed are central banks to keeping you know in the case of the rv a rates in the belly anchor. I think you know the the the the central bank of spoken loud and clear. You know the cbs spoken loud and clear about any of their yields Going higher either. The fed hasn't really said anything. And frankly you know. I don't think i don't think that they should. I mean maybe. Even even i was i was a bit too fast last week. You know saying that well. One thing that the fed could do is a talk rates down. Do something like an operation twist you know sell front and stuff and buy back and stuff to to police the long. But here's the point. You need to police because what you have seen is that you have this massive selloff but then you know the the ethics hedged buyers. There's talk a lot about on this show. At least one. I come on. Is you know they are now getting a beautiful amount of slope in the treasury. Gervin and again keep in mind every time you talk about all these cash coming into the system and bill yields going negative that means that these hedging costs are going to be very well anchored and if anything they are going to be going going lower so basically you know the sell off. That happened last year you know. Some guys were striking out of their positions. But that was an opportunity for another set of buyers because if you look at these aspects yields i mean we are back to levels. Berbie have last time being in twenty fifteen and you know that's just crazy because you know when you look at yields in japan and you look at yields in europe. I mean those are still abysmal. Ride so any fixed income alligator is going to look at These types of sell offs Great excitement than that's that that wasn't part of the south healing mechanism and You know the thursday. We had a bad day but friday. And since then we've been having a great great price action in treasury so again you know some people win some people lose but i don't think that The should do anything about this and again you know. I think. I think there will be a couple of these Instances where you know as being placed in there even the reflation narrative is not going to go away anytime soon. you know. that's going to drive yields dynamics. I think that's that's the part of the best part of the The future out. But i'm not sure that you know. The fads should do anything explicit about it. I think even even i think even regret saying last week you know one of the things that have pets should do the talking down. Be do operations with i mean. Sometimes you get bound up in the emotions of the markets you know the market has as of you know self healing properties right and and again you know the the losses for some investors for opportunity for the ethics hedge buyers Later on you know. On friday. And andy special week so i wanna go back to the start of our discussion and just talk a very very broadly about the strength of the us treasury market in terms of actual structure. And the plumbing. We've seen these instances where liquidity seems to evaporate and last week wasn't necessarily as bad as what we saw in march but we did see bid ask spreads on treasuries start blow out. How concerned are you about. I guess the structure of the treasury market or liquidity within the treasury market generally. You know. I think. I think it's a question i think you know marquette's not supposed to be about no volatility at all. In fact i think is a is a healthy phenomenon and you know i just don't think move staff have seen last week i mean again. You know markets go from one extreme to another but but for as long as there is a you know mechanism whereby some value-based investor is going to provide an outside spread and puts a lid on things. That's great then. I think you know what what what i think happened. Last week is actually i. I tend to focus on you. Know the south healing properties of the market and from that perspective. I think that the markets are fine. It's just that you know some lever players were shaking out of their position because you know the the. The market's perception of of how committed central banks are to keeping rates. Low has has changed and you know central banks basically when the other way and and and and the market the market. Calm down so i you know i wouldn't point to you. Know there's too much regulation and that's why the market is getting these spay or or or any of that. I think i think it's just. It's just a healthy development. I mean it's not comfortable especially if you're on the wrong side of the trade. But i don't think but i don't think that bet be should be going down a path where you know. We need to redesign the treasury market. Because there is occasional basketball to zoltan. I think that's a great place to leave at. We can always talk to you for a few hours. Thank you so much for coming on. We appreciate it begs zola. Those really great. Thank you very much for having me guys joe. It's always great. Having zoltin on and his explanation of the price action last week was probably the clearest one that i've seen so far and a lot of people are sort of freaking out about this being a central bank miscommunication or the taper tantrum reebok's but actually like if anything it resembled a sort of technical shift in positioning as levered players. Rethought their pets. Y- there's always a lot of what when rates move violently you know. We can't really help. But ascribe some sort of deep economic significance to them in people love narratives about the bond market is challenging the fed or inflation or maybe something with fiscal policy. And i guess that's always there to some extent and perhaps This sort of the difficulties in communication that maybe the The antipodean central banks have had new zealand and australia. Kicking things off. They've had sort of problems with communicating about their term rape path. But in the end like when you have a bunch of people who are all levered into sort of roughly the same positioning and you have these other cloud hanging over the market such as The questions about the essa. Laura that you can just get stuff. It doesn't always necessarily have to have sort of meaning per se right. It's sort of the thing came. Stop equivalent for the treasury market. Sometimes things just had cut you and it doesn't necessarily mean there's guard. No that's exactly what i actually thought about it with. Respect to game stop. It's like something sometimes things just happened and just at the same way everyone was like. Oh this is class warfare. This says something about t plus too. It's like sometimes things just happened in market loose. I can say oh. Yeah i also thought it was great. That zoltan kind of i mean just on the point about the bond market challenging the fed which was narrative that we saw come out some commentary. Next week you know. The fed can't control the bond market. The bond vigilantes have returned that sort of thing. I thought it was really interesting That's all time basically said that he regretted writing last week that the fed could do an operation twist or something like that to keep a cap on bond yields like he sort of admitted that he was caught up in the moment and that things have changed. But that's why it's not something that you hear from a lot of analysts necessarily that sort of honesty no totally right and also this idea. It's like look like bonds are not equities. And they do have as he pointed out this sort of Natural curve mechanism and we have gotten to the point where their steepness in the curve. Such that for four and fx hedged buyers there is now failure new set of bidders comes in so it cut with a with game stop you can have an extremely long period of time in which the underlying in which the value of the security is extremely divorced from anything resembling fundamentals and. It really seems much harder to have that. It's what it's hard to really even imagine. What like a treasury bubble would mean because you do have these sort of natural buyers that come in at certain levels if you get a disconnect and disconnects do happened between fundamentals rates Very quickly New sources of money emerge in one air another. And you don't get the move going on forever. I just had a great idea for a Financial market novel. A scenario in which wall street bets tries to take on the treasury market and forces squeeze happy interesting twenty one trillion dollar market versus Registers maybe we should write a novel together. We've never been able to come up with a good idea for like proper financial book together. Maybe the answer is novel fiction route. I'd be up okay. This has been another episode of the thoughts. Podcast i'm tracy alloway. You can follow me on twitter at tracy alloway and i'm joe weisenthal. You can follow me on twitter at the stalwart. Follow our producer. Laura carlson on twitter. she's at laura. Carlson followed the bloomberg. Podcast francesca levy at francesca today. And checkout. All of our podcast. Bloomberg under the. Handle ed podcasts. Thanks for listening. Climate change is at the center of everything. Bloomberg green is at the center of solving it bags by powerful data and a global news room. Bloomberg green is focused on solutions and the greatest opportunity of our generation bloomberg green solutions for a changing climate in partnership with general motors. j. l. l. m. standard chartered visit bloomberg dot com slash green.

treasury fed us treasury us bank of america tracy alloway zoltin joe weisenthal fargo reserve bank of of museum reserve bank of new zealand of senator brown senator warren Darrell duffy boeing J. p morgan wells Fargo citibank
March Market Madness; Ariel Investments; Saudi Oil Output

Squawk Pod

36:01 min | 1 year ago

March Market Madness; Ariel Investments; Saudi Oil Output

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We've come down nineteen trading days the Saudi Russian split CNBC Contributor Halima craft on. What's at stake in an all out oil price war there? We're getting to that type of situation where the Russians are essentially saying. We're going to target sale. We want Shelter Rollover I. This could be extended downturn in twenty twenty thirty seven years of market drama experience Ariel investments chairman John Rogers. We're there eighty-seven buying bargains during that crisis. We were there in two thousand eight early. Two thousand nine buying bargains. We think this is the opportunity to buy those stories. Plus what's a hoped-for recovery without some alphabet soup? Is this a you? Recovery is at a lower case fee or an upper case fate. I'm CNBC producer. Katie Kramer. It's Tuesday march tenth. Twenty twenty squad. Pod Begins Right now becky by in three two one good morning everybody. Welcome to Squawk box here on. Cnbc we're live from the Nasdaq market site in Times Square. I'm becky quick along with Joe. Kernan and Andrew Ross Sorkin. Our Guest House is Joe. Terranova from verdicts investment partners. He's also a CNBC contributor. And it's great to see you here. This morning Becky I step on the pod market turmoil again today Tuesday. Us stock markets are pointing to something a rebound after a two thousand point drop Monday. The steepest single-day declines the two thousand eight financial crisis and historic decimation of oil prices. The Dow S and P and Nasdaq each fell more than seven percent. Monday and the speed of the decline kicked in circuit breakers a literal halt to the markets just as the trading again. Here's what that sounded like on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange live on. Cnbc up there you see See the cessation in Texas circuit breaker whom the bell tolls trigger. That was the first time since. Nineteen ninety-seven that circuit breakers kicked in an effort to slow down some of the panicked selling the garden variety corrections twelve and we got a pandemic. What what's what's a decent We're about maybe towards got an additional eighteen or nineteen percent yesterday. Ah Eighteen or nineteen you once again. If it goes from Europe a thousand a day you will once again be the call of the bottom you will be. I'll be right there and I wouldn't be surprised but it's just consensus. It's just it's just a feeling that everyone has at the same time that you express that's all it is and that many times. That is a contrarian indicator but I don't know what do you more to go or well. I understand the focus on the equities market. It's right Connotes going to default Treasury Yields Treasury yields they're zero yields have been the leading indicators where equities are going. I think yesterday we got four. We got down to thirty one points yesterday. Okay we are now back to seventy two basis points which is exactly where we were on Friday so that is a very indicator and treasury yields have been leading the equities market and all risk assets since the middle of January if you go back to January fourteenth January thirty first while the equities market wasn't concerned about the corona virus and potential spreads the United States. What was telegraphed at that? Point Treasury yields that were melting. Lower financials at that point topped out. I think the first place that you have to identify if you're going to see stability and I like what I saw yesterday from yields. It's the velocity of these moves. That's been so shocking to kind of watch all time highs on February nineteenth. We've come down. Nineteen trading days twelve trading day. So there's been five instances on Becky's point in terms of velocity where you've experienced during the course of one week a decline of greater than ten percent. Obviously the largest one was. You were down eighteen percent from October. Sixth the Vo Eight to October Tenth of Oh Eight. The other instances obviously or eighty seven two thousand and two thousand one. You lost eleven percent in the last week of February so the question becomes everyone believes in Aviv recovery. And if you look back. At all these instances all these instances there is a recovery. You have to identify you have to identify is it. Is it a lower case fee or an upper case fate? And that's the question so I I saw some nuts yesterday at least in some industries where people are asking. Is this a you recovery for these particular industries where there's a big fear factor so the u? Recovery really only happened after two thousand two thousand one because you had the DOT com bubble burst cruise ships again anytime soon but you had the DOT com bubble burst. Then you have the experience of nine eleven and then you had that you recovery. That's multi years to recover eighty-seven it took two years to recover and an OA. It took five years to recover the experience. I think most people are trying to identify with right now. Is December of two thousand eighteen? That's okay five months to recover so markets are moving much faster. I think we're getting acclimated to a different type of marketplace. And let's understand this biological in nature but let me ask you. We've never experienced. Ask You this the question that we yesterday that I still don't know the answer to which is what do you think? The markets think in terms of duration and extent scale of the problem here in terms not necessarily of the health scare unto itself which is real but the fear factor and how many people are not going to either be going to work. You're going to restaurants getting on the plane and you know markets discount. Things that you're saying here is what we've been talking about for three weeks winning but we haven't but I would argue that up until the past week. There was a view that somehow it was not gonNA come here in some meaningful way. We'll see an escalation in the number of cases that are reported here in the United States where I see an escalation on desensitized to that but I think for the investor at home. There's an interesting perspective here of how you have to treat this because it is happening so fast you have to have the Warren Buffett mentality and treat all of this as a passive investment. Let me explain what I mean by that. If you're invested in private equity right now are you seeing? Is it visible to you? What's going on in your investments? It's not if I said to you Andrew. Your House is going to decline ten percent over the next week and then in the following three months could go down another ten percent. And you're GONNA say Joel. I'm going to sell my house so I think the investor at home has to understand this intrigue it passively and I think we're becoming more financially literate that we're getting to that place. The markets get emotional and we emotional. What's our total number of cases? Everybody that walks by me. I think Scott now I mean I want I don't want anyone coming via there's five hundred out of opted all of my freakish sort of Dan's washing and pure rally. Have you seen video of toilet paper? What's what's the toilet paper. Things run out of other things that make do with food waters. Some you know toilet paper. That's the because there were shortages in Japan because we watched it play out. In case instance. All right I'll figure something out. President trump now says he's going to be meeting with Senate and House Republicans today. The ones that aren't self porn TND to discuss a possible tax relief. Measure in response to the corona virus. We're seeing the Senate is going to be meeting with house. Republicans Mitch McConnell Everybody and discussing possible payroll tax cut or relief substantial relief very substantial relief. That's a big. That's a big number We're also going to be talking about hourly wage earners getting Help so that they can be in a position. Where the not gonNA ever miss a Paycheck Wall Street Journal reports Peter Navarro and Jared Kushner pushing for a payroll tax cut. Now while Larry Kudlow and Treasury Secretary Manucher calling for targeted measures aimed at helping workers without sick leave and businesses facing virus related disruption and latter camp payroll tax. Doesn't help anybody. Who is not getting paid? Because they're staying home because they're suddenly their tips have disappeared or anything else. But that's how I make Jason for making that case says so they tried. They did this back when when he was advising. President Obama. Wish it had done more. Maybe all of these things I mean. I still think that we're going to have a conversation about bailouts of industries. That hasn't even begun yet. But I think you're GONNA get targeted at that for all sorts of things. I I agree with Becky. I think specifically talking about hourly wage earners and say that is that's priority number one hostage commonsense of look. We should make sure that people aren't incentivized to still go to work. If they're if they're sick we we should make sure that people are getting sick. Leave for them. As president trump said yesterday for things. It's not their fault. We want them for the Public. Good to stay home and not risk infecting more. People shouldn't do that without pay for that. And and I think the president's economic team should walk in with a chart of the Dow Jones transports and there's the reason why you have to support the travel industry Obviously the market is telling you a story there. That's that's a particularly ominous one. I also think there are other measures that they need to enact here to make sure that investors are not discouraged to investing. You actually want to encourage at this point investing in the stock market you could take the 401k annual limit you could raise that to twenty five thousand dollars you could take the capital loss on an annualized basis. That's been three thousand dollars for a capital loss. Since the last forty years you could raise. That's twenty five thousand. You could take salt limits. Which are ten thousand? You could raise those twenty five so I think there are a unique things that you do specifically to your point targeted to let's encourage investment in the bucket limits. I mean it would help a lot of people on the coast where you've seen potentially some of these things but I don't think that's targeted enough raising the salt limits on things and also if you take all these moves that look like you're only helping the stock market. I listen helping. The stock was the stock market encouraging. assets and investment into assets has been part of the story for the last ten years the wealthy. But you're also seeing the inequality of effect that has come in. As part of that too I would say that the moves we took during the financial crisis led us to the point where you had many people feeling like. They were not part of the part of the system. That was getting Bernie Sanders. I think if you look at some of those things you look back on this one. I have to say because I think it's politically palatable to be helping investors at this moment. Italy has expanded travel restrictions to the entire country at this point in an effort to try to control the spread of Corona virus. Let's go live to Rome. Nbc's Claudio Levin is standing by in joins US right now Claudia. What can you tell us about the difference between today and yesterday? There's a massive difference of course because last night and until last night the only section of Italy that had these massive restrictions of move movement restrictions was the north while last night the Prime Minister Julian dramatic press conference said that those restrictions will be applied to the whole of the country including of course. Rome was does. What does that mean? Well the prime minister is telling all Italians or sixty million of them not to get out of their houses and unless they have a real emergency either for work or a medical emergency and they even have to that in case somebody stops them if they are moving around even in their own city by having self-certification form that says who they are where they're coming from where they're going and why the fine if you break. The rules is two hundred fifty dollars or even three months in prison during that press conference. The prime minister said that that these are desperate times that the future of the country depends on Italian. The sense of responsibility in at least until now. It looks like they did. Listen because I'm sending here the colosseum usually one of the most crowded places not only in Rome in the whole of Italy and it is fairly fairly quiet fairly empty. Mostly tourists are here. So there is a big difference. Italians trying stay. Put their staying at home on unless it's really necessary for them to get out plotted. Thank you very much. The presidential campaign season continues. There's some newest and analysis this morning. Joe Biden's tax plan and who would fit the Bill Robert? Frank joins US right now. He has more of the Good Morning Robert. Good Morning. Becky will. Biden's plan would raise taxes by four trillion dollars over a decade with most of that paid by high earners in companies. That's according to a new study from the Tax Policy Center Biden would high tax revenues by eight percent in total every income group would see a tax increase. The middle class would see an increase of about point four percent but the top they would see by far the biggest hiked the one percenters within average tax increase of about three hundred thousand dollars a year in their tax rate would jump by twelve percent to forty two percent of the top point. One percent those people making more than three point six million dollars a year they would see their tax rate jump by sixteen percent to forty seven percent and nearly three quarters of the increase in taxes under his whole plan would be paid by the top one percenters and the bottom ninety percent of Americans there would bear less than seven percent of the total cost. A Biden's plan calls for rolling back. The trump tax cuts bringing the corporate rate up to twenty eight percent from the current twenty one percent and he would tax capital gains the same as ordinary income. For those who make more than one million dollars a year that means the capital gains tax. Which is the most important for? Investors would go from twenty percent to thirty nine point six percent and he would apply the payroll tax income over four hundred thousand dollars now. His plan is less than a quarter of the cost of Bernie Sanders plans sanders. Plan would total more than seventeen trillion dollars over a decade guys back to you. Yeah Watching a lot of the predicted stuff. Joe This morning. Trump reelection is at about fifty or fifty one. Cents and Biden is about forty eight cents. That's that's pretty close the generic even though we'd probably sanders now sanders is so down. I mean for Michigan. They're like he's talking about maybe winning Michigan Ninety two cents for Biden in Michigan. Which is today. And I think he's single digits for the nomination at this point but for generic twenty twenty who wins Republican or Democrat. That moved that flipped yesterday to fifty three cents. Democrat forty eight or forty nine Republican now. It's back fifty one fifty something like that. So it's all corona virus. It's unbelievable yeah. You wonder how that's GonNa shape the primaries and the election and you know the tax thing is if you start to have a true economic slowdown you're going to see a decrease in tax revenues at the state and federal level. And what will that do to how they're gonNA make that up? Are they going to raise taxes of certain pundits on the left? They're trying to call it. The trump virus in its this. This is Katrina things like that. So it's I mean there are working overtime on on trying to work it. Okay Robert Frank you. This one baffles all of us. It's inexplicable investment platform Robin Hood suffering its third outage and dazed or yesterday's Marc morial angry investors. Who couldn't trade during Wild Day? In the markets the platform was down shortly after the opening bell and partially restored by ten thirty. Am and then though at around three thirty PM. We had problems all over again. This is one of the sort of more baffling things happened in the marketplace especially during these historically and also times you have young people who have used this to get into the market. We all thought this was a great thing because it was bring young people into retail investors into the game. Tell them repeatedly and now they can't they can trade and I'm worried that it's going to push that full group out of the market. There's GonNa be lawsuits left and right lawsuits loose lawsuits of the key. They're going to get pushed out of the market to somewhere else interesting. Every it's this business caused free trades everywhere else in this business couldn't do it. Hey Okay but that's a great environment for investors in if they're not able to execute on their business model then they're going to face the challenge of significant lawsuits and the customers are going to find a home to Becky's point somewhere else where they're gonna go for zero could be a TD. There'll be a e-trade the well now the together with Morgan Stanley and everglades. They'll be welcomed with wide open arms will be next coming up on squawk pot a Saudi Russian oil price war. Saudi Arabia has pledged to hike. Its crude production to capacity. Cnbc contributor. Shoddy Arabia is a central girl oil from Saudi Arabia. Were to push up production to that level. We'd be out of reserve. We'll be right back. No one likes to feel stuck boxed in or held back especially by your cloud. It's a problem but the IBM cloud is different. It's the most open and secure public cloud for business. It can manage all your apps and data anywhere across all your clouds so it can help take on anything from re booking flights on the fly to restocking shelves on demand. Without getting in your way. Smart loves problems. Ibm Let's put smart to work visit. Ibm DOT com slash flexible to learn more visit Squawk pod from CNBC? Good Morning. Welcome back to Squawk box right here on C. Museum Andros Sorkin along with Becky. Quick and Joe Kernan in-studio Joe Terranova crude oil plunging twenty four percent yesterday in a single day. It was the worst single day since the Gulf War started coming in the wake of Saudi Arabia's split with Russia. Joining us right now fresh off a trip to Riyadh is Lima craft. Rbc's head of Global Commodities Strategy and Middle East North Africa research and Halina The markets rebounding a bit today. But what's happening with this rift between Russia and Saudi Arabia? And should we anticipate that there would be any coming together anytime soon. I mean the Saudis have made it abundantly clear then. Let's Russia returned to the OPEC bargaining table. They'RE GONNA take production up to potentially new highs. They were out today. Indicating that they would take production to twelve. Basically a twelve point three million barrels a day that would be a record high for Saudi Arabia. So this is a situation right now where it's really. I think in Russia's Court to see whether they will come back to the table there were reports on the BBC website today. The Russian oil minister will be meeting with the company's country's corporate leaders to see if the Russians can put something on the table. But that's where we stand right now. I think it's really a question. Of what will Russia do if Saudi Arabia goes ahead with this in Russia does not come up with some sort of a deal that they can put things back together? Was yesterday's sell-off Overdone why. The Saudis are intent on really ramping up production. I think we will be in a situation where oil potentially could fall to the twenties. I mean there are individuals in Russia most notably the head of the Russian company. Ross Net who signal that he would want to take its production up further as well we could be in a situation where Saudi ramps up production and the Russians raise production so that type of situation when there is so much concern about demand. I mean this would be a really negative impact on oil prices again. I think we'd be talking about oil. In the twenties and such a scenario so yesterday was not an over selloff. If that's the case today and over bounceback where you're already looking at Oil Up by better than ten percent. I think right now. People are hoping that cooler heads will prevail. I think if we get clear signals that the Saudi statements are GonNa be masked by barreled. Then I think the market won't really start to be very concerned about having an oversupply situation. While demand is rationale. We have not had a situation before when we've been in a demand crash where the producers have put millions of additional barrels on the market. This'll be an almost unprecedented situation. How long could Saudi Arabia and Russia each? Carry Out that strategy. Well this is a question about you. Know how deep are their reserves? I mean both countries have saw. They're pretty Saudi. Arabia saw their reserves. After twenty fourteen. They will be under economic stress carrying policy. Ford Russians. Say They have more bandwidth to do so. They say they're not as dependent on oil. Is Saudi Arabia? They say they need to lower oil price to balance their budget. But this'll be a cast of both countries economic strength. I do think again. I think the Saudis are looking to try to get the Russians back to the table. This is not a twenty fourteen situation. They're not looking to flood the market almost indefinitely to break shale. They're trying to get back to the table. But the Russians on the other hand there are signals again if you look at that. Ceo Roth Nicky Gore section that he is looking to take out. Us Shale production he wants the US shale producers to balance this market. If we get into that type of situation where the Russians essentially saying. We're GONNA target sale. We want shelled rollover. I this could be extended downturn in two thousand twenty Lima just a couple of hours ago. Saudi Aramco said that it's going to be increasing. Its oil output to twelve point three million barrels a day starting in April is that just negotiating tactic. I mean when I was in the Kingdom I was really struck by the bear grimly determined to see this through. There's no joy about this policy but they indicated that they will be wrapping up production potentially to their maximum levels again. We've never seen Saudi Arabia produce at these levels the recent high within twenty eighteen when they produced just over eleven million barrels a day if they did twelve point three that would be almost unprecedented in terms of Saudi production. And it would leave us with almost no spare capacity in terms of producer states. Saudi Arabia is a central banker of oil. Almost every country produces their maximum levels. Saudi Arabia's really the country that sits on their reserved in the market so if Saudi Arabia where to push up production to that level. We'd be out of Reserve Halima. Thank you good talking to you. Thank you next. Unsquashed pod Ariel investments. John Rogers. This is unprecedented crazy crazy times. So much volatility so much fear it makes you feel like you're getting toward the bottom seasoned and unafraid of volatility along term investors guide to this week's market drama. We'll be right back. Welcome back to Squawk Pot. John Rogers began his investing career at twelve years old. He started with stocks in his Christmas stocking. Thirteen years later at twenty five. He started Ariel over the next thirty years. John Built that flagship mutual fund into the thirteen billion dollar firm. We know today. Ariel Investments Aerial Fund. That first investing vehicle is still around today. It's held a number one track record among its peers since the market bottom after the financial crisis. It's probably no surprise that John Rogers reputation on Wall Street is an impressive one. He's been highlighted alongside ledge near investors like Warren Buffett and Sir John Templeton of whom inform Roger's own investing strategy. He's a long-term contrarian investor and he quote believes in being greedy when others are fearful. Seems like a pretty good time for that philosophy. Here's Andrew kicking off squawks conversation with Ariel Investments Chairman co-ceo and chief investment officer. John Rogers do you think about him is in place? We'll never know. This is unprecedented crazy crazy times. But it does feel like there's been some type of capitulation so much volatility so much fear it makes you feel like you're getting toward the bottom. And what have you been doing about it over these past couple of days? What are you planning to do about it today? But we've been talking to all of our management teams on the phones. Ceo's trying to get as many company visits as possible and we want to take advantage of the volatilities. If you've been buying have you been lagging the entire week and half two we have been we can say we just started yesterday. But we've been doing for several weeks. Now is the market gets cheaper and cheaper. Refining more and more unprecedent bargains. And what do you think I mean? We've been talking about it all morning. What do you think is baked into the market in terms of where we are right now in terms of what may or may not happen going forward with the virus that is I think as we can unfolded and we got into this week? I think people really are seeing all the bad news. I think it's pretty well. Incorporated people are all extrapolating. This seeing getting to be like Italy. People are talking about cutting. You know all the things that could go wrong here talking to you. Think that's all that's all in. I think it's all in I really really do. And there's great great opportunities out there temperatures because you disagree with Android so you say that you see bargain easy Where are the areas that you think sectors or individual stocks? That you think are really oversold at this level. We have two sectors that we've been focused in on these days. One of the financial services. Our LARGEST POSITION IS K. Are we think that private equity is an extraordinary place to be more and more people more and more investment committees or allocating money to private equity? They have lots of pools the cash. And they're in a position to take advantage of these bargains. Because there's so much cash the private it's been kinda waiting because prices have been so high so this is the time to deploy exactly. I think this is very helpful for them. I also strongly strongly believe that northern trust the old gray lady of Chicago. It's real anchor institution it. Selling ten times earnings kind of unprecedented cheating for the kind of brand and strength in northern trust represents we'll private equity almost become like hedge funds of ten to fifteen years ago? And I think there's there's some excitement if you're going to re price them at a lower level but let me ask you about strategy of passive investing and the environment. We're in now D. Do you think that possibly investing strategy is kind of contributing to an acceleration in the volatility and the leverage liquidation that we're seeing and you see a return to more active management strategies. I do believe that. The passive management phenomenon is exacerbating. What's happened in the markets and the active in the markets have become so prominent in the volatility increases with the kind of regular trading that happens within the within the past the area. We believe strongly that active management will be making a comeback. This US old dinosaurs. We'll have our day in the sun and There's real opportunities when the markets are trading for reasons that are not fundamental stocks are trading because part of an index. It's they're getting thrown away at bargain. Prices it gives you an opportunity to be selective and find some great businesses that the indexes are getting rid of so. I'M GONNA nominate go back. I'M GONNA. I'M GONNA argue side for a second because we're going to have Larionov the other day. And he said twenty to thirty percent was definitely possible. There are other people that given the move that we've seen in recent years from seventeen sixteen seventeen eighteen thousand all the way up to thirty thousand some of them for a while than saying this thing needs a forty percent correction to get back to wear long-term you get down to a single digit multiple on some of these. That's what we've seen in seventy four and some of these bear markets. I just wonder if if with professionals like you John whether there is a complacency that we assume twenty percent is going to be it and it could be thirty or thirty five percent given that this is so different than anything we face before. How was that Andrew? I'm just saying I've been reading all day for the past couple weeks. Is this idea that you can have a ten percent correction on where the market was. Here's what and you add in. The I think the reason you get a twenty percent. Sharps off the worst case scenario in people's traders minds. They've already got that but then again technically but I think that we have had in China the book. I don't think I don't think you tell me. I don't think lockdown of London New York. La IN CHICAGO AND ATLANTA. And I don't think that's baked into the cards. That is not but I think there's so many cheap sectors and cheap stocks now. He sounds again. Like complacent Professional money man industry right now. Cbs Viacom selling four times three times earnings. They're going to sell three. Billion Dollars Worth of assets. They've got such extraordinary content. It doesn't make sense to three to four times earnings meredith local television broadcaster and owner of people magazine. It's not only three and four times earnings but it's got a ten percent yield in an environment. We have less than one percent on our treasury bills. So I just think this is a these. Stocks are really treat an already baked in a lot of bad news which John the mascot dissuade December of eighteen six months basically to recover Eighty seven two years to recover. Wait five years to recover. What type of recovery time period do you think we're challenged by? I think it's more of a six month period. The area was thirty seven years old. We've been to this movie before we were there. In eighty-seven buying bargains during that crisis we were there in two thousand eight early. Two thousand nine buying bargains. That's why we've been actually number one in our category since the March. Two thousand nine so we think this is the opportunity to buy and we think that you know it can last six months you never know exactly how long but as we always remember last century started a sixty six over eleven thousand Warren Buffett. All these talks about that I can remember last century. We had the Spanish flu pandemics. We had two World Wars Great Depression. The markets bounced down did. Did you have a lot of cash? She'd been hoarding to this point. Where money are you putting to work? We've done both. Some of our products have more cash than others are small cap product. We had significant amount of cash. Since we've been able to put that right to work. Does that ten percent or six to seven percent roughly but then also we've been fortunate as some takeovers here we own a lot of techno. So now we've been able to scale out of that a little bit as the stock to risen. Recently because of the takeover we think it will be more media consolidation happening. That helps you generate cash for new bargains. And then of course you sell your most expensive stocks to buy these really really cheap telling. Oh well we're talking to tanks. Let me put you on a different issue. Which is last time you were here. You were a Bloomberg Man. There was a report yesterday that you have swung behind Biden which may be not unexpected. Because that right will yes. I was a true believer in what President Obama believed in and thought that he put together extraordinary team. So Vice President Biden was a part of that team and so I'm supportive and feel bad. That might blame. Bloomberg couldn't make it to the finish line but we really think it's time for James John. You had that wacky predicts and pence was going to be president. I know you remember that. You said that. The trump's hiding so much that there's gotta be something there so by twenty twenty pence will be president but that made you worry that he'd be a much more viable candidate than if the president were trying to get reelected so now you must be happy since it looks like it's going to be trump so he'll be easy you said he'd be much easier to beat than pence. I still believe. That's okay but what was the whole thing that you took a shot that something that might be over saying we have to prepare for all eventually. No you said that's going to happen and we got idea. We've question. Do you think that this whole episode both between the markets and what's happening with Cronje more? Broadly is going to have a demonstrable impact on come November. I think given that bottom is in right. Sounds like and that this may or may not be behind us but looking more rear view mirror ish than four mirror. Does it actually impact? The election? Said six months is kind of my timeframe so as we get toward November. I think this'll be kind of ancient history. We'll be on to some other issues in our country at that point so you don't think Biden will be able to take advantage of this to the extent that he's going to be able to argue that somehow this was mismanaged one way or the other part of mosaic of many things that have been mismanaged and so many things that have so many people that have come and gone and so many different leadership roles he'll be able to create a narrative there but I think this virus challenge. I mean Jonah by November. Join the president had story to tell about the stock market and about I mean even on Friday. We got the latest example of the economy with that great jobs number and unemployment at three and a half percent wage yet until this came along it knocked the stock market down almost twenty percent. We'll see what happens with the job numbers but the mosaic. You're talking about got a lot better for for your side in the last month. There's no denying that right numbers. I hearing you say bottoms and made me rethink everything with Andrew. That's scares me when I think too. Many people think think about him is in anytime supposedly consent. So you gotta go to the opposite seinfeld opposite. He did. Thank you for being here. That's pod for today. Thanks for listening. Squawk box is hosted by Joe. Kernan becky quick and Andros organ tune in Weekday Mornings on CNBC at six am eastern for now from the Nasdaq market side. I start doing this tape from home Joe. And if you've listened to this far. I hope you subscribe to Squawk Pot. Wherever you get your podcasts on apple podcasts leave us a rating or a review with your thoughts that helps other listeners. Find US. We'll meet you back here tomorrow. Clear thank died. No one likes to feel stuck boxed in or held back especially by your cloud. It's a problem but the IBM cloud is different. It's the most open insecure public cloud for business. It can manage all your apps and data anywhere across all your clouds so it can help take on anything from re booking flights on the fly to restocking shelves on demand. Without getting in your way. Smart loves problems. Ibm Let's put smart to work visit. Ibm DOT com slash flexible to learn more.

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Super Bowl LV Prop Picks & College Basketball Tips with Kiev O'Neil February 3, 2021

Sports Gambling Radio - By BangTheBook

55:20 min | 6 months ago

Super Bowl LV Prop Picks & College Basketball Tips with Kiev O'Neil February 3, 2021

"Hello again thank you for joining me here on this wednesday february third edition of ats. Radio i'm your host. Adam burke joined today by kiev o'neill from the odds breakers were talking about super bowl. Fifty five take a look around the acc and the big ten in college basketball here on today's show. Today's show is fifteen hundred edition of either bang book radio or ats radio that does include some stuff. That i wasn't on we had a basketball podcast through bang the book. That was done three times a week. That i wasn't on. So it's not my fifteen hundred show but it is the fifteen hundred overall for this little baby that i started back in august of two thousand thirteen so over eight million listeners year to date so far fifteen hundred editions of bang the book radio or ats radio so thank you so much to everybody. That's been along for the ride all of the listeners. I know there are some listeners that have been around for a very very long time. I thank you for that all the guests. I've had over the years on this show much appreciated for coming on taking your time giving us your insights here across a variety of different sports betting markets and big time events. So been a lot of fun certainly expecting to have a lot more of these shows as we go forward here definitely excited to talk about the super bowl and some college hoops on today's edition of. Ats radio over. An ats dot io. Got some stuff up yesterday. My article on game props and then by article on the kansas city chiefs props that i like here for sewer. Fifty five got my situation articles for the nba. And the nhl up over there and keep checking back to those each and every day to see the spots of for that evening's games did a market report update yesterday on the super bowl. And we'll talk a little bit more about the side and total here on today's show. You can check that out over at. Ats dot io as well and the rest of the writers fantastic work covering the nfl college basketball nba nhl so on and so forth. And we're probably about. I would save four weeks. Or so from my. Mlb betting guide for the twenty twenty one season hoping to have that out here the last week of february so definitely hard at work on that as well. Finally the average you can find in the google play store or in the apple store. Full article integration from the website. But the app is also a bet. Tracker has an odd screen with the us sportsbooks a stats database. To help you out with your handicapping. Lots of impressive betting resources there in the ats app. I encourage you to all of that and check that out today with today's guests that is kiev. O.'neil from the odds breakers kiev. How's it going today. Man do a great adam. And first of all congratulations on fifteen hundred episodes here. I mean what a phenomenal feat to accomplish. Man i mean you are a staple in this industry. And i gotta tell ya out of all those episodes. I would bet that. I listened to at least twelve hundred of them. I appreciate that and yeah you know it's been it's been interesting to say the least. I think it was about twenty six teen. I want to say that we started doing the daily show five days a week monday through friday. There was even a time. When i was doing two hours a day here on the show usually with three or four different guests. We've kind of down that format a little bit here now but you know it's been interesting to watch. The industry grow and develop in that time. Starting long before legal sports betting in the us was allowed us. So you know. We've we've seen done a lot here on. The shows definitely hoping to keep doing that as we go forward here and finally get to see the super bowl coming up here on sunday after two weeks worth of prepping and talking and analyzing everything in anything about this game here chief still minus three with extra juice out there across most of the market fifty six the total across most of the market as well. You will find some fifty six and a half south there. Maybe you find a rogue three and a half something like that but kiev just not a whole lot of movement on the line here. Since we last talked on wednesday no it seems pretty frozen at the at the minus twenty. I still think it's going to close at three and a half. I don't think it get to four. Because i just think there's going to be too much brady money stopping that but at the same time a there's gonna be some weather possibly you know i've been looking at it every single morning and it doesn't look like those rain. Clouds are going away. Matter of fact the rain precipitation. Chances went up a little bit as we just discussed before the show and Maybe the wind went down a little bit. But there's going to be thunderstorms. I would guess that there's gonna be some wind and so you know my concern would be For the passing game for sure and you'd have to think a little bit more towards the running game if that happens adam. Yeah that's a big question. I mean obviously you know weather can be unpredictable in the state of florida at all times and certainly here. You know this time of the year water moisture down that way a lot of precipitation. Maybe don't get some of the severe thunderstorms that you'll see pop up in the later spring and in the summer months but still could be a factor and again we're still four or five days out from the game to the point where you really don't want to put too much emphasis on the weather forecast at this point in time and something else to keep in mind here too and maybe we haven't talked enough about this point Throughout the week is that look. This is the tip of the iceberg. And maybe just the tippy top of the iceberg. In terms of money. That will come in on this game because sharper more influential. Betters are taking pieces here. And there of the of the line of the total stuff like that the rid of markets but for the most part here public and recreational bettors will not get involved in this game until saturday night or sunday. So we're we've still yet to see an avalanche of money multiple avalanches of money. That will come in on this game. And i think it's interesting. You mentioned that. Tom brady sentiment because we have seen. The buccaneers. take money game day pretty much. What at least three weeks in a row here in the playoffs. And certainly you know the tail end of the regular season to where they kind of seem to get things on track a little bit. It makes me wonder what does happen with this line as we get to the weekend. I two expecting three and a half to be the closing number. But you kinda wonder what's going to wind up with all that public money. That's coming in here within thirty six hours of the game. Yeah absolutely and you also have to wonder when if you're going to try to go against the public let i mean it just in general. You would think the unders went to do that. Because if you're to get in at a spot where lots of money comes in on the unders which happened in some offshore books last year. You might miss out on the best time. You know a couple of books. I looked at last year. I remember some of the money coming in on the under laid on saturday. And your saturday number If you're going to bet the younger was actually better than the sunday one before the super bowl. So so that's some stuff to think about. As well i mean how much is gonna come in for some of these inflated line so i've been you know out to some of the people in the industry Behind the window trying to find out what's best. And i've been getting some mixed answers myself adam so I'm excited for the game. Though no matter what. And i think if you if there's a number you like you gotta take it but You know keep in mind you gotta watch that weather because you're going to get some of the receiving numbers down if if the weather's going to get worse and worse or be rainy and windy And possibly the running back numbers are going to go up. So just keep that in mind when i think something else that was kind of interesting an interesting development here. This week is that we had that. Kobe scare for the chiefs with demarcus robinson and then daniel kilgore two players. That are were listed as close contacts. So they're going through all of the protocols and all of that and there's still a chance that they're cleared of course by sunday but yeah that's kind of in the back of everybody's minds anyway and includes some of the more influential sharper betters. That are out. There of these guys are doing everything that they're supposed to do. And there's still a chance that you may wind up with some covert positive. Some close contact stuff things of that sort to the point. Where maybe we would have seen a little bit of movement on tuesday. Maybe here on wednesday. Possibly some on thursday tomorrow you know as the books kind of increase limits a little bit more. But they're still that uncertainty kind of that black cloud hanging over the season as a whole. But especially here this showcase game where some people may be reluctant to go out there and and of take a stand kind of take a position knowing that. Hey we still have a few more days of testing to worry about to where we hope nothing happens but of course you never know exactly and not just that i think there has been a ton of movement just because we're the juices at at minus one twenty. You know. I think the extra ten cents. There's young people are hopeful. They're hoping to get a three. If they want like kansan people and tampa bay are hopeful to get a three and a half. We'll see if that happens but it's kind of earth who's who's going to be the desperate to move. I is what i wonder. But the covert thinks just like you said. Yeah it's in the back of people's minds. I mean what if something crazy happens. It's one of the quarterbacks. I'm sure these quarterbacks are kept under lock and key. About this little disease you know it gets cracks and crevices and vents and people get that say that even go out so i i have no clue what to expect but at the same time. That's why you have to make sure you have good. Bankroll management don't over invest in the super bowl. Make it a fun thing to watch. Don't put too much money into it that you can't afford to lose it. There's nothing worse than watching a game being stressed out about it. you know. Drop your papers. Don't sit there and stare at your phone enjoy. The game is must you can so with that we get into some prop picks here on. Ats area. We've been doing that with all of our guests throughout the week here. We will continue to do that on thursday and friday as well. The four that. I've talked about here so far. Williams over forty five and a half rushing and receiving yards. I've even seen that as low as forty two and a half and it may keep going down because based on the action. I'm seeing out there so far. Clyde edwards helaire expected to be a bigger part of the offense for the chiefs that williams so seeing edwards helaire. Go up seeing williams. Go down a little bit so maybe get some better value on that one as we get closer to kick off here also like levada david over seven and a half tackles hamstring issue for him. But i can't imagine there's any way shape or form where he misses the super bowl also from on tuesday both teams to score three or more touchdowns yes was plus one twenty five bedroom. Gm and the no missed field goal minus one forty three at draft kings i minus one forty williams hill or fan duel one of the two when i wrote the article over at. Aps dot o. So those are the four for me. we also had. Brian blessing talk about liking the chiefs. Total team rushing yards over on yesterday's show kyle hunter talked about ronald jones over rushing yards cameron break on receiving yards and under ten and a half for penalties in the game. So those are some of the problems that we've talked about here. So far kev. I know you've got a few more props than i do here for this segment so go ahead and start with you. What's the first prop that you're looking at here for the super bowl. Well before i get to that well. I guess you'd call this prop i mean there's an outline on the super bowl i remember. You mentioned an adam that you don't think the the spreads going to come into play. Well if that's the case. I've been thinking a little bit more about that. You could take an outline minus seven and a half at plus one ninety of course if you think that Kansas city is going to possibly blow them away. But i found a better prop and take it yet but i mean if i really liked kansas city before the game maybe i will. You can get kansas city winning by seven to twelve points at plus four fifty and you can get kansas city winning thirteen to eighteen points at plus six twenty five at bookmaker right. I would rather go that direction because you have the seven and you have the better odds. You're just sacrifice the extra unit because you'd be playing both. But i really don't see kansas city winning by over eighteen points. I think no matter what brady is going to. At least make it respectable so i just wanted to throw that out there adam. Since you don't think it's the spreads gonna come into play. Have you look got a chance to look at that. No it's not something i usually look at. I generally try not to bet a lot of props that are sort of exact result. Type things whether it's a player prop or the final score the game. Final point total for each team stuff like that. I like the yes no over under type stuff but you bring up a good point that if you do think that kansas city wins this game wins this game comfortably. There are alternate ways to do it other than just taking that minus three. You can take the bigger line. You can take some of the exact result props as you're mentioning. It's kinda the same thing like we've talked about in the past where maybe like a team but you don't wanna lay minus two hundred on them as the money line favorite something like that. Well if they're going to win the game their quarterback's probably winning the mvp. So maybe that's plus five plus one ten plus one fifteen instead of laying the minus two hundred on the straight up money line. So that's the nice thing about this. Super bowl is that there are a lot of different ways. You can go at alternate ways of playing your thoughts on the game. That may have a higher return for you. Yes absolutely add just comparing the two. I like taking the plus four fifty which is actually plus three fifty plus six twenty five which is plus twenty five spy twenty-five rather than the outline at my seven and a half is all is probably the point. I was trying to say but yeah there's a lot of ways to attack this and and you a nice hit if the chiefs win by seven to eighteen points right there. Let's move right into my first. Prop play leonard fournette over three point five restrictions sections that one. I like a lot. And i believe i got plus one. Oh five on that one. So for net has at least four receptions in the last three playoff games. Kansas city is actually the worst team against pass catching running backs in the nfl. Giving up eight hundred and thirty four yards and yards. They are and their third in receptions allowed at ninety three. And so if you remember tom. Tom brady to white. Think both you and i have cashed on those props before will this is what brady likes to do. Plus buyer left which has left a lot of the in game decision. Making up to tom. Brady i could see leonard for naked and a lot of dump off. Send the flat right there. So i love this proper. Three point five adam. Yeah i think this is a good one and especially to as we've talked about a lot. And as i talked about last week on the show i do like kansas city. I like kansas city to win the game. Pretty comfortably here. That means that leonard fournette will have opportunities to be targeted in the passing game. Because you're the chiefs if they do have a lead here in this one then you know. Obviously they're gonna try and keep everything in front of them. Not get beaten. Over the top by evans godwin all that. So that means maybe brady has no choice but to dump it off and even if the game doesn't play out in that way then maybe it's just a big part of the game plan as it's been in most of the brady super bowls to use the running backs effectively in the passing game so i liked that one there with four over three and a half. It gets a good look. All right sounds good. Mommy move into the next one. Yeah i think you said you had four of them right. I believe yeah i have four of them the next one. Let's do it. We have number of times. This was kind of more of a creative when it has nothing to do with the gameplay itself. But i like to you know. Try to find a little value with everything last year. The we one on the tom brady mentions right. was juice but it went way up. Well this one. I'm still seeing at minus one five number of times that the patriots will be said over two times. I don't think that nance tony romo are going to be able to contain themselves here. I mean with the amount of super bowls that brady went with the patriots. It's going to be a talking point multiple times. There's a lot of time down time between plays and they're going to have to feel like they have to fill it with as much talking as possible. I just don't even see how. It's possible that i can imagine the packers less than four times so i like this problem over two and it's one of those more creative ones that have nothing to do with the game. I think it's one of those things to where you know. The patriots mentioned thing makes a lotta sense but we just talked about it if leonard four net is used a lot in the passing game. It's very easy for tony. Romo to say you know and this is something that brady and the patriots did all the time using james white and using some of their other running backs and you also have rob gronkowski who played for the patriots with tom. Brady it's one of those things. I think is very easy to sort of you know maybe even talking about antonio brown you know having been with the steelers and the steelers had some of those match ups with the patriots. I agree with you. I think this is one that could definitely go well over and and if it is a flatlined there onto as well i mean. What are the chances. The patriots are only mentioned once or not at all during the super bowl. Oh my god. I can't believe it said to be honest with you but this is one. I'm definitely going to be attacking a next time. I'll go next here. go break. You got two of them laughed. I liked the to. You've got here so far four receptions and also mentions of the patriots one that i like here and this one is juice quite a bit but it is one that i kind of believe i talked about a little bit in passing yesterday's show if not i'll go ahead and talk about it here. Total kickoff returns under four. And a half. At william hill this is minus two twenty. Now i've seen minus two fifty out there at points. But and i know that this is a very chaki prop and a lot of people. Don't like to play the chalky props. They wanna bet a little to win a lot. So they'll bet safeties and longshot first touchdown scores longshot. Mvp's this and that. But when i look at this one here under four and a half. And i understand that a lot of people are probably saying okay. Well there's expected to be a lot of scoring in this game. Which would mean a lot of kickoffs which would mean a lot of kickoff opportunities for there to be kickoff returns but when you look at these two kickers specifically bradley opinion for tampa bay eighty five percent touchback rate on the season. Eighty five out of one hundred kickoffs harrison bucker seventy six percent. Seventy two out of ninety five. He was only one point. Four yards per kickoff show than pinon. So it's one of those cases where bucker could have had more touch backs but maybe teams returned out of the end zone. Something like that. I don't really expect these teams to run the risk of having a fumble on a kick return or something else that kind of goes wrong. You get a holding penalty and get pinned at your own fifteen or your own ten something like that. I think these teams. We'll just go ahead and take the ball to twenty-five not be the least bit concerned about whether or not their offense will move the football so the one thing that scares me a little bit. We talked about this a little bit already. Kiev is that wind. Could be a factor. You could have some weather considerations maybe that knocks them kickoff down something like that but both of these guys with plenty of leg to kick it into the end zone or through the end zone. I like under four and a half total kickoff returns again. It is to twenty but i just don't see a whole lot of kick returns in this game that's fine that's i. I like that as well. Because you have to think with butter the chiefs. We're probably winning a lot of these games forcing the other team to take it out of the end zone where they should be taken any chance that they can break one for a kickoff return so Great stuff yet. Both of these guys have Some serious legs and being able to return it over four times is a big feet these days in the nfl especially when they're trying to take returns out of the game so even with a little wind. I mean you're gonna get some stuff that the wind is in your direction right most of the time. When teams are scoring the touchdowns the wind's blowing with them right. So they're kicking off that way so Great prop adam. I really like it all right. What's the next one that you're looking at next one. I like is total sacks and there's actually two plays in this one. I'm going to take the total sacks for tampa bay over one point five at minus one ninety and i'm gonna take the total sex in the game over three point five at bindis one fifty here tip obey ranks fourth and pressure rate and third and sex. I mean the big thing for me is that the eric fisher. Injury is going to shake some things up in casey right. It's gonna shake up their offensive line. And you know that. Todd bowles trying gonna try to take advantage of that he's going to try to blitz a bit and we're already hearing some whispers of that well mahomes ain't afraid to take to go down and if mahomes is a little bit scared to run the ball because of his concussion or is he's more reluctant just a possibly go down himself so he won't get hit. You know so. I think this is an easy prop to win myself and on the other side of it. Brady's not afraid to go down either. What did brady do the last game. He threw three interceptions. I mean brazed gonna take a sack now before he he's going to throw it a dangerous interception unless they're really really losing the game and if they're really losing the game they probably already took a few sacks as well so on both sides of the coin i really like it but i like it a lot for tampa bay and i like it a lot for the total at over three and a half out of this one that i took a pretty close. Look at i agree. There's some shuffling on the offensive line for kansas city. And i've seen some very smart people that i respect so that they think todd bowles will be a lot more aggressive in this rematch. In the first game he sat back in zone kind of tried to keep everything in front of him and it. It didn't really work at all. And patrick mahomes any monster first half and threw for over four hundred and sixty yards and took the second half of the game off pretty much so maybe bowles does forced the issue and again i keep going back to this because there are correlations involved. When you start talking about how you think the game plays out and how some of these crops are going to go again. I like kansas city. So what that means. Is that tim basically have to throw the football out in the second half. At least that's my opinion on the game. I might even take a look at somebody like brady attempts over something like that but if brady is going to be dropping back a lot then there is a higher percentage chance of him getting sacked. And that's something look. Brady was not sacked. A lot during the regular season has not been sacked. A ton here in the playoffs. Either but there's always one or two game they don't give up five or six game like we see some teams do but there's usually one or two spotted in there a little bit and then for kansas city. I know mahomes is a super mobile guy. But tampa bay as you said they pressure a lot they blitz a lot and they got there a lot so i would make sense and it's another example of why you don't want to be scared of laying juice on some of these props you know. Sometimes it's because it's a sharp side and they just got money down before you did and kind of push that number up a little bit but also you know when there's juice it has a higher expectation of happening to the point where i wanna shy away from stuff like that and you should have some inverse the oh in your prop betting portfolio. Let's say i mean what if the game is a thirteen to seventeen game. I mean look at your profits and think to yourself. What's going to happen if this final scores. Thirteen to seventeen. Am i gonna lose my ass or what's going to happen if it's forty to thirty five. You have to look at both ends of the spectrum. In this thing is a little bit of protection. i think. If it's going to be a lower scoring game you have to imagine that some of these teams have one of these teams has gone sacks so it kinda works both ways and you can still hit that obviously sect prop even if there is some high scoring so it's a little bit of protection as well. I thought that thought process. And i like that. You're kind of looking at it from sort of multifaceted approach to of not just playing the over for the game but you know also sort of looking at the two teams individually where maybe one caches and maybe the other one doesn't and you drink the juice on it but again there's a method to the madness there. There's a thought process. There's an approach and that's a really important thing. I think in a lot of different ways when you talk about these props second one for me here and like i said i'll probably have about ten of them over the course of the week on the show doing two per broadcast here. I'm looking at mccoll hartman receiving yards under. Now i've seen twenty eight and a half with minus one twelve minus one fifteen something like that. I've seen twenty seven and a half at even money. Admittedly i don't know the exact value of one receiving yard but it'd probably be more inclined to take the minus one twelve twenty eight and a half something like that you know when i look at mccall hardman i just don't see him as a focal point of this offense now after marcus robinson isn't able to play. Maybe that does give hardman more of a chance at getting some targets. Maybe sammy watkins able to go here. That would take away from hardman as well. But i think instead of using a guy like hardman you can just use a guy like edwards helaire. Now that he's back. I think terrell williams is a guy that you could target and i also think that san francisco. A great job taking travis. Kelsey away last year. Only six targets caudal six but only forty three yards. I think the chiefs want to get kelsey more involved. I want to have tyreek hill involved as much as he was in that first game. So when you look at this and you'll get all the weapons that are available for mahomes. I just don't see mccoll. Hardman being that high. On the pecking order getting a carry. Maybe an explosive rushing play. Sure that's a possibility. But i don't see him here as a focal point of the passing game so i know it's a low under at twenty eight and a half but i just don't think that hardman will be a trusted option from homes. In this game i agree with you. Because there's just too many weapons to go around when it comes to the chiefs and you know they're gonna want to get their main guys going here. The the the emergence of edward hilar- in this game is really going to hurt some of these other guys at with the number of attempts. I mean we only have four quarters of play here so if you like that one you might even like his receptions as well under the two and a half. Is that something that you're looking at them. Yeah absolutely. I'm looking at that one and i'm glad you brought that up because you know that that could be one. I'm going to be playing which would possibly featured on one of our my next shows as well so great stuff there. Adam really liked that one man. So let's go ahead and talk about your show real quick here. I know we usually save it for the end. But let's go ahead and put it right in the juicy part of the show here. Because i'm sure that i know that you just did a show on some of the props stuff and all that but i imagine you've got another broadcast coming up here this week. Yep absolutely so. We have another broadcast coming up and We're actually going to have one of the lines makers for mybookie coming onto actually discuss some of the props that he created their raphael sparce. He's also from docks sports. And so. I'm real excited to get him on and on saturday. Kyle and i are going to get on our better odds sports betting show at one pm. Eastern crystal leak is going to join us from espn. And we're going to talk a little bit about some props that chris is gonna take as well. I'm gonna try to throw it a few more for this huge super bowl week so if you guys have the time feel free to join us check it out makes you fall kiev on twitter at odds breakers and i guess that what's the last prop that you're looking at here for the super bowl or at least were on our show all right well. There's there's two of them. I have two more quickly. Go over this. One is going to sound really public. And i thought hard about it. 'cause i'm usually the one in super bowls and big games to fade the top receiver in go big on the next receiver. But the more i dug into it. I just can't see away. That tampa can stop tyreek hill now And i think he's gonna get his yards pending the weather now. The weather does get me a little bit concerned about this but tyreek hill can break. He has breaking speed. He could break a lotta tackles he can he just one play here. Get a chunk of fifty to eighty yards in. So i think that he's got a good shot of taking over ninety five yards hundred yards wherever the prop is set. Where you're looking at. Obviously it sounds public because he got two hundred yards that last game against tampa bay that first quarter which was freaking awesome by the way but look at. What's tampa's got on defense there. Safeties are banged up jordan. Whitehead left last game with a nasty shoulder injury and there seemed to be really quiet about it which makes me worry. 'cause they beat about it and antoine winfield. The other safety missed last game. If these guys can't play. I mean i don't know what you're gonna do over the top for a guy like tyreek hill and you know maybe this whole yardage thing wasn't a fluke and he's gonna get his now does tampa him just of the sheer embarrassment. Maybe but then they have kelsey to deal with as well and they know all too. Well what kelsey could do. Just a lot of weapons on this. Kansas city team. But i think they you know he's the one that i liked that could go over I sure Pending the weather. Obviously and i think if you wanna take a little shot maybe half of that for him at mvp at plus one thousand. I wouldn't have a problem with it because the quarterback. Mvp odds suck this year. They are massively juiced. They are incorrectly priced. And the only other player that i think has that next level value. That great athlete is tyreek hill. I mean there's just too otherwise just too much to go around right with this offense so plus one there. Yeah i like that a little bit. But i really do think he goes over his yards. Adam somebody i think is kind of interesting to think about here and speculate about. Is you know. Patrick mahomes won the mvp last year. And i don't know if he was the right call. I mean certainly played very well in that fourth quarter to bring kansas city back and of course you know win the super bowl but dave williamson a realistic. You know stat line worthy of winning that award the game away for them absolutely and running backs. Don't win it. i mean it's been a very long time since a running back has won it. And i don't figure running back. Wins it here in this game but you sort of wonder here from a super bowl standpoint. If there's a skill guy that has a big game namely you know one of the wide receivers tight ends whatever because they gave it to mahomes last year. Is there that chance that maybe they look at it and say okay. Mahomes threw for three fifty but tyreek hill. Had one hundred thirty yards in two touchdowns. Maybe we'll give it to tyreek hill here you know. I just wonder if that's a possibility because mahomes got his last year. And you know. I'm not going to say there was controversy about it. But you could make the case damian williams should have gotten it instead. I think a lot of people may their case. And i was one of them and maybe i'm just bitter because i took mac to get the mvp in the college football national championship and they gave it to devante smith who knows but maybe there's a little trend there that Receivers are kind of getting there you know and if you look at any player that was like devante smith to his college team. It's tyreek hill. Is nfl football team here. So it real interesting but if he breaks a few and in scores a couple. Td's here well That would be a nice little pale for well. A lot of good thoughts here on the subaru. We've been a lot of good thoughts so far this week on the big game. I guess the last thing. I'll ask you hear that man. I mean who wins you. Call your shot. What what are you thinking here. What kind of finally looking at. Well well i think the chiefs win thirty two twenty seven right. I mean is that with the line of my line was three point two five right and so i have to go by that and i love. Tom brady and he deserves all the respect that he gets he. I think he is the greatest of all time. But it's mahomes is time. And i think there's a passing the torch that's going to happen in this game but if you really liked the chiefs and don't want to lay the minus one sixty five minus one seventy. Whatever it's at right now. I'm gonna ask you question adam it. Do you think that athletes are superstitious. One hundred percent they are. What was the color of the gatorade last year when kansas city wanted. Oh god what was it. It was orange. It was orange and orange comes up the most times out of every single gatorade bath. It's thirty three percent of the times. The next is clear and then there was only a few citrus and a couple of other ones. Let me ask you this. If you're the waterboy for kansas city and you make that gatorade blue and they happen to lose this game. You think that there's any chance that they're going to have you back for next year. That's pretty good point. That's an excellent point. I see what you're getting at here. And you know those novelty props always really interesting. Orange is probably a good call because you know as you said last year. So that's what the chief said when they won and the other team on the other side where's shade of orange so i think orange is that. Set your lock of the week here the well. I haven't talked to gatorade myself. They've have not returning my calls but Or the chiefs. But it's not a lot. But i'll tell you this Rather than laying midas one seventy on the chiefs you might be able to get the same value plus one five and if the chiefs happen to lose tampa still might have orange gatorade right there. But i just can't imagine this team changing it up when they won on orange last year so i think that's a nice little sneaky one. I think i think it's kind of in the price too. So i i liked that one for a little bit i. That's a good call. That's a good way to transition here over to the college basketball side of things for a few minutes and you always want a big ten here so far in your segments and we will do that in a few minutes time. But i've also noticed that with your play articles over at the odds breakers on the times you're looking at stuff in the acc know we talked about duke and kind of some of your Dislike of the duke blue devils for this season. But i also saw that over the weekend. I believe you're north carolina state and syracuse over the total and we generally don't really think about syracuse games as as being high scoring with that zone defense and all of that but it does appear here this season kiev that syracuse pretty good offensive team. Defensively they're still limiting opportunities but not to the same degree that they typically do. Is there something you've picked up with the orange year. Well yeah i mean. I've noticed that there's going to be some value on those lines. Because i don't believe that can does it correctly when it comes to totals. I think they shade the unders or the shade. The over is a little bit too much. Under and i think the low totals high on so on the ends of the spectrum. I i usually find value and to be honest with you. I don't think you have to necessarily specialize on a conference. If you're betting totals because there's a lot of great information out there one thing about syracuse. Is that these totals are made based upon the adjusted temple. well you look at the adjusted tempo. And then you look at their average possession length. There's a huge discrepancy. There are one hundred nineteenth adjusting tempo which is pretty fast above the average but their twenty ninth an average possession length. So you realize that. The temple that's put into the number of this game might be a little bit shy and you know and and that's what ended up happening in this game. Unfortunately with four minutes left they decided to stop playing kind of waiting for the lash out of the game. And i have no idea why they did that. We still want it. At the end it was close. It was trending ninety two eighty percent over this whole game but You know. I was happy to get it but i thought i was on the right side. The whole game of that discrepancy nc state. There's a little bit of a discrepancy as well sixty nine point four is there just at tempo but they're actually sixteen point six and average possession. Length ranking one thirty seventh in justin tembo in one zero six and average professionally. So that's where. I found a little bit of an edge. Also a lot of people think that if a team has i'd adjusted temple of seventy four in. They're playing a team. That has an adjusted temple of seventy four. The next game. If they play each other is going to have a tempo seventy four. That's absolutely wrong. They're temple is going to be about seventy eight. Because it compounds you know if you have to multiply and divide it by the average tempo right so if you take the seventy four times. Seventy four divided by the average. say seventy. the real temple for the next game is actually seventy eight because too fast teams are playing each other. It's going to be faster than what they average a lot of people don't understand that and it's a way to get in to totals especially when you get numbers from places like tour terrific and canton. Well that's really excellent. Inciteful stuff there. I mean that's something that i'm sure a lot of people don't really think about and as you said it's something that's pretty easy to kind of work into your handicapping so long as you can do some of that math and kind of pick up on some of these things where you know tempo and possession length as you said there can be some discrepancies and if you find one of those. I think it's a pretty interesting opportunity. to try. And cash the winters there on the total side so with that being said syracuse place. Clemson here this weekend and clemson a very slow team. They move at a glacial pace for the most part here. They've had some games that were very low against morehead state and virginia couple of teams kind of sped them up to a degree. But what are you thinking about this one here where you've found an angle on syracuse. I feel like have you found something on. Clemson makes some sense well. I'm glad you brought this one. Because there is an edge. I think in this game syracuse. Obviously they have a game against louisville. It's tonight so We don't know what's going to happen. I would if i if you like clemson. I would hope that was going to lose north carolina. Instead they upset north carolina and beat them but syracuse place. Faster clemson place. lower it just. In general right. Clemson does pick up the plate pace if they are hitting their shots or if they find a groove or maybe they're way behind in the game but if you look at the teams that clemson beat over the past month or so There's something that they all have in common and that is they. Don't shoot the three that well you know they. They beat louisville and carolina over. There's only two wednesday have out of six games. So they have fort losses. Since mid-january louisville shoots the three rank in two hundred thirty third in the nation north carolina shoots the three ranking two hundred ninetieth in the nation the teams that beat them. right here happened to be shooting threes. Very well florida state was poppet threes over. I'm like nobody's business Georgia tech pop threes over at home ranking fifty ninth in the nation. We found out that clemson's defense that formerly was number one in kent palm earlier this month or sorry. Last month february now has a weakness. They ranked two hundred twenty fifth against the three point. Shot the good news for clemson is syracuse. Is just one of those teams. That doesn't shoot the three that well. They only rank thirty one or two hundred forty. I thirty one point seven percent from three. So that's the angle that you have here also struggles. When facing teams with a good defense like virginia north carolina. Syracuse gives up eighty points on the road. So that's a big one for me as well syracuse. Kinda beats up though the medium teams The bad teams but when they face a good defense they they tend to get throttled so this game is under three and a half adam. I'll probably be contrarians playing clemson. Anything else you've noticed in the acc with any of the other teams. That are out there that you found to be actionable. The acc is definitely lot weaker than it was. We read virginia tech last week and it was a bad start. I thought that was gonna be a loser but virginia tech kind of turned it on. There's no the conferences week. The conference is weaker than it normally is usually the. Acc is the best conference. Then you have your big ten god. I don't even know if the acc is good as the sec this year and right now i have the big twelve as the best conference in the big ten. A second so That's one thing. I definitely noticed. north carolina is trending up. In my opinion. I'm glad they lost against clemson because i'm going to look at them against duke this week. We'll see where that spread is but duke is also one last few games as well. You have to remember that. I mean i wish i had more to give you the duke north carolina game dukes going to be a three point favorite To be a great game to watch but at the same time they're not the great teams in the top. Ten to thirty seconds on kent bomb. North carolina is ranked forty third. So that's going to be an exciting one. But i'm gonna try to dive a little bit deeper into this one. Both teams improved. I think north carolina's slightly. Better than do and i think duke makes a lot of mistakes. that they shouldn't make Cameron indoors. obviously not the same place without fans as well so I notice a miami had great play. Well they played amazing against duke and they were a fait team of mind. Wong came back and did a great job so not much there florida. State's coming off that loss against georgia tech. They're going to be Wanting to beat the heck outta wake forest this weekend. I think this is kind of one of those Get back up games so Even though you're gonna be laying thirteen or fourteen points might look to play florida state which is a very well rounded team and probably the best team in the acc. It's such a tough conference. Because virginia and florida state are pretty clearly above the rest of the league. Which means that you get a lot of these spreads that are in the you know one to six range. Were kind of the home team's favored. Or maybe you wind up with a really short dog. Something like that. And everybody's kind of beating everybody. Virginia's state above that fray. They've only lost one of their eight conference games. Virginia tech and florida state two losses apiece louisville with three but everybody else has four or more in conference play so do you find that a higher variants conference like that is sort of easier to bet or does it make it more difficult because you know really any one of these teams can lose to any one of these teams at any given night. I think that it makes it easier. Because you're gonna look more towards the dogs in this because the dogs are ya. They're upsetting teams. You know as you can see. This has been happening and i know the spreads not that high but in general here just remember. These teams are kinda all evenly evenly matched in general except for florida state and virginia. So the rest of these teams. You can just kind of look at it. You know who's going to be the five point dog. Maybe there's going to be a little bit value on them as kind of the way i look at it. I'm not sure if that's right adam but we'll see how this conference beat each other up throughout the rest of february. Why ask you a couple of games here in the big ten as well which i know is sort of your area of expertise here on the college basketball side of things. A couple of close games last night with maryland winning by one over purdue and then in illinois indiana game. it was a pretty good one went to overtime illinois. A barely covers the three number four. A lot of people out there were three and a half that was available earlier on the day winning by four road there at indiana we already talked about the to thursday games in the big ten ohio ohio state and iowa also rutgers and minnesota with minnesota back out on the road once again. We didn't discuss those on mondays. Show with kyle. Hunter i in kyle talk a lot of college basketball specifically the big tad any thoughts. You want to add what kyle mentioned earlier on in the show. No i actually agree with all your sides on that one. I like iowa here. Probably facing an ohio state team that might be a little bit overrated. But at the same time i will tell you. I really love what holt's been has done over there to this team. Ladele has been great. I just think that's you know it's time for them to step back a little bit iowa yet. He did beat michigan state last week. They didn't cover the spread. Cj frederick should be back. I think that iowa it has some upside because their pace of play here. Especially coming home. I i was going to ready to of try to take that number one in the big ten status back When they played at illinois it was neck and neck game and illinois was at home in illinois won that game. But you know i. I will definitely a top team alpena michigan in this changes as we discussed before. But i think it's michigan iowa maybe ohio state illinois is third probably illinois still for me but it's really close all right so let's look at the friday game here game. We haven't talked about yet on the show this week. Maryland on the road at penn state on fox sports one as we talked about maryland with that one point win last night over purdue a nail biter head to come from behind trailing at halftime by a bucket. Now they go on the road to penn. State and penn state team is good not great pretty good offensive team. They struggle a little bit on the defensive end relative to some of the other big ten teams but they are a top thirty team according to ken palm in the nation. So what are you thinking here about this one on friday night. Well i disagree with that. Their top thirty team. But i also kind of disagree that maryland is to both of these teams are kind of fade teams fermi and it sucks that they're playing each other here. It's going to be ugly. I mean penn. State's showed their face against wisconsin. I was kinda even as a badger fan. Halfway hoping penn state was going to cover those get some more value. I'd maryland this game. But i i mean it's going to be penn state minus two at home. I don't think that's that that better as spread. You know it's going to be around one forty four pets big man. John harare's been playing really well lately. If he gets into foul trouble then this is more of a live bet situation. You're gonna take maryland there because they are pretty small Or just not talented at all. Besides john harare down low so remember that one thing penn state has done well as played pretty well at home lately they you know. It'd be wisconsin. And now they look good and then they can look really bad Maryland coming off a window makes me less prone to take them you know. I usually like taking big ten teams off of a loss. I guess a lot of times in general you think that but obviously number dependent is all times but penn state's going to try to push the pace and barons going to try to slow it down. But penn state is at hall. Maryland is going to have a large advantage inside or the shoot fifty. Three percent from two maryland ranks eleventh in near proximity points. If you look at has metrics and penn state ranks three hundred twenty fifth in defending pointers and ken. Tom so maryland shouldn't even take a three. They should just stick to the paint and try to beat him up. Pretty bad down. There was some good ball movement Penn state does have the advantage from three though. They shooed thirty five point. Eight percent in maryland ranks two hundred forty six on defense allowing threes. Thirty five point five percent. So penn state has that three-point advantage of the question is are they going to be hitting the threes. And that's kind of where you think about the live betting situation. They're put harare in foul trouble tense as not in threes maryland covers. This spread all the way but You know i. I have a game that pick them personally. So seventy three seventy three is kind of where i have it. So i'm not. I'm not rushing to the window on this one. Oh we'll see what that number comes out here for that friday night matchup last game and the big ten to discuss here kievan. I wonder if illinois got softened up a little bit with last night's close game against indiana as they prepare to take on the wisconsin. Badgers here on saturday. And a big game here. Huge game really for both of these teams. Because you have this situation here. Where i think. Wisconsin is very quality team. Obviously illinois is a very quality team and now we start kind of thinking about how seating will shake out for this conference tournament teams looking to kind of build up that. Nc double a. tournament. Resume to worry about seating there of course for the bubble in indianapolis so big time game here between two teams that are top ten on some sites but our top twenty as far as the ap goes about these teams adam as you look at them this here and they returned most of their same players both teams and did they really improve that much from last year. I don't think so. I mean one ten games in a row less here. The big ten down the stretch. They became the number one seed in the big ten tournament until Obviously it got canceled for cove it illinois. you're returning. They'll soon move. That was such huge news. As coming back michael in the nba. Cock burn frazier. Well what happens is that they're forward. Stink bugs amish. Feely the good news for this game. Is that wisconsin is soft down low. I mean ravers and potter. They don't rebound they don't offensive rebound they hang out around three point land hoping to take threes. You've got your six eight six ten guys sitting there shooting three pointers right. Well that's gonna give illinois a big advantage especially if they're not hitting potter has been hitting that well wet rivers is hot and cold and i find that interesting So illinois's weakness if you're going to exploit them you're going to have some ball movement down low and i was constant with that. Swing offense they keep the ball up pretty high. You know and wisconsin is a terrible team at shooting twos. They ranked two hundred thirty four. Th in the nation at forty eight percent field goal shooting. Twos shoot the three pretty well but they're not at home. They're going to be a little cold. I guess illinois Favorite here the totals could be one thirty eight. But you know just going from what i said. Illinois averages ten points per game more than wisconsin maybe they're softened up a little bit and i am concerned illinois was a four point. Open up favorite against indiana. It went down to to the ended up winning that game in overtime and covering bad for the people that took indiana. But i still in illinois gets the job done here and i got illinois winning seventy two to sixty six so at the three this would probably be a plan illinois for me and i hope. Wisconsin does get some Dog status bets on. Because i think i would come back illinois man grid stuff on today's show with kiev o.'neil from the odds breakers and as we talked about earlier in the broadcast. You've got another podcast coming up this week to go along with the great written content over at the website. That's right and i think i have another quick play for you guys if you don't mind. Etem michigan state is slated to play nebraska on saturday. If it happens but nebraska has been cova protocols for the last month. That's literally about a long since they've played a game michigan state spin losing. You know that doesn't happen along with izzo. I can see a slump. Game coming up with michigan state. Nebraska plays fast. They lose fast. I'm going to be taken michigan state at the half here and i'm probably going to take him for the full game. So just give you a little teaser for coming up this saturday and i'm sure you'll be writing about that one then over at the odds breakers yes for sure. We'll we'll do at him. What else is going on over there right now. Man well check out. We have lots of free place. Lots of breakdowns. There's we try to put as much value as we can. We try to get you at least Between me chris and a couple of other people At least one play a day right and christopher doing a great job. We did pretty well yesterday on our free plays so we always love college basketball. In the weekends we focus on it so check that out. If you like what you hear you know feel free to become a member or you can become premium member at and you just get what i bet on and the place that i like to make and cash on so Really appreciate all of our audience and Check us out. Podcast comes out thursday and make sure you follow on twitter at the odds. Breakers or at ole be kiev. Kevin neal from the odds breakers thank you so much for joining me man. I appreciate it and we'll talk to you next week. Have a good one a mareo. There's kiev o'neill again. Anti oddsmakers on twitter. The odds burgers dot com. Is that website coming up on our thursday edition of ats. Radio we'll chat with the one and only brad powers professional better in handicapper from bradpowerssports.com. Some more suitable props and discussion coming your way. We'll get some college basketball insights from him including a couple of picks for thursday night's action so should be a lot of fun with that still working guest for friday. But i'm sure we'll finish out the week on a high note here on. Ats radio they'll do it for me. Just listening everybody. And i will talk to you again tomorrow.

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Imagine a World Without Restaurants...

Business Casual

24:12 min | 1 year ago

Imagine a World Without Restaurants...

"Before we start the show. I want to talk about our sponsor medal lab. It's possible you haven't heard of them before. But there is a zero percent chance that you haven't interacted with their products. Metal lab has worked behind the scenes for over a decade to design build and ship APPs. It over a billion people use each month for everyone from startups like slack coin base to industry leaders like Google Dubar check them out at Meta lab dot co and let them know Kinsey from business. Casual sent you. That's Metal Lab DOT Co. Hey everyone and welcome to business casual the podcast from warning brew answering your biggest questions in business. I'm your host and Brew Business Editor Kinsey Grant. And now let's get into it as most of you probably know by this point. I have been quarantining at my family's house in Florida for the last two or so months I lived here for the first eighteen years of my life but ever since I moved to New York City at truly has felt like it's become part of who I am and it's about more than just my overpriced department or my friends there or my job. Their New York has shown me more than any other place. How food can serve as the epicenter of a community going for soup. Dumplings Joe Shanghai China Down Burning my tongue on baked ziti little Italy. It shows you that eating can really take you places and that's why restaurant closures in the wake of the Kobe. Nineteen pandemic have felt like a sucker punch when your favorite restaurant is put in jeopardy at truly. Can't feel like your whole community is on the brink. Just think about your favorite spots and think about what your life or your weekends would look like without those spots for me. The thought of never going to Oleo up you in the West village is frankly devastating. I moved departments to be closer to the restaurant. Truly I really really did. I wanted to be closer to the people to the frito Mizuho. The Sprint says on the Patio Andre. The waiter who always gives me extra olives and bread and has seen me on every birthday since my twenty-third for me. That restaurant is the center of gravity in my neighborhood. And according to famed chef and restaurant or Marcus Danielsson who? You're going to hear from shortly and who you'll probably recognize from his many appearances on the food network. Judging chopped competing in iron chef restaurants like Oleo pugh are harbingers of small business success and of small business failure. It brings simple. We have to decide what America we WANNA live in. And most people WANNA leave living in neighborhood by whether a plurality of services whether you like got hair salon whether you like the Nail Salon. Whether you WanNa going to boutique whether you if we all find with just living around big boxes seeing ship to us I think people wanna live in neighborhoods combination of services and when you don't have restaurants you also don't have that small teak you do not have that Nail Salon. You do not have these. You know more bespoke experiences that really are the sole and the heart of a neighborhood imagined in West village or Chelsea without restaurants will guess what everything the like about these incredible imagine aspects of Brooklyn Harlem without restaurants. You know all these other reasons why you would go to Harlem integrates a Sunday afternoon in spring and stroller. Lennox in part of that is gone. If there's no retail Rizal as restaurant goes so goes small businesses and this is a very pivotal moment in our country what society and then small businesses are the engine of American himself of of employment. But besides just number you kind of have to let close your eyes for a second stay. I limp choose to live you know. Tell me part of town that you love to be a why ride you can. Just ask yourself that question. Then you take small retailers than you probably don't WanNa go there you know what I mean especially when you live urban his leg you want that combination of the social impact at those places. Have you want to know the person that you know your Barista down the street and you think about her in him when at shop closed and like like it's all part of enjoyable experience and we're not robots union beans with with with emotional intelligence stimulate? Chef Marcus runs a number of restaurants all over the world. Most notably Harlem's renowned. Red Rooster wanted to talk to him about the restaurant industry to better comprehend how the space from fine dining on down has changed the face of today's pandemic under session because as far as Marcus sees it are the backbone of small business and community and beyond just that they employ a lot of people according to the National Restaurant Association. The restaurant industry employs fifteen point. Six million people in the US alone and was on track to do eight hundred ninety nine billion dollars in projected sales here in America for twenty twenty but the sad reality is that an enormous chunk of those fifteen point. Six million people are now being furloughed or laid off restaurants especially the small ones can't afford to keep employees on the payroll when there's virtually zero business coming through the door seriously in New York City alone restaurants spending dip ninety percent in late March compared to a year earlier so now that we understand a little bit better. What's at stake? Let's understand how we got here. I spoke with chef. Marcus in early. May Me from my living room and him from his office at Red Rooster in Harlem. So if you don't mind can you walk me through what the experience was like for you as the shutdown started to take place? What was it like? How did things change while I mean it was I would say it started last week of February first week of March and You know around March eight nine two got really intensify and it wasn't a matter of you know we're microbe. Msg Partners and owners in twenty five units in eight countries We building some were middle of construction and others we operating some like this whole Iran. Everything in the gamut so how to do this at this time with very very different operating Sweden where actually people but we didn't shutdown country and of this is being dubbed with Montreal New York City Miami. Very very different. So it was. That week was really about incoming And trying to understand. How do we do it right? One of the laws in each plays and and through the logistics of that and then the following week which actually really about pivoted pivoting something APPs Because even if we couldn't be open traditional way we still had worth and know-how and a value proposition. Pivoting has been the name of the game for the restaurant industry in these very very weird times. Some are making meals for frontline. Workers others are going all in on delivery etc. But there's an important note here that I wanNA bring up. Delivery isn't just a simple solution. You could shift your business to one hundred percent delivery but that sometimes means losing fifteen percent even up to thirty percent of the bill to third party. Services like Uber eats or GRUB. This has been a big sticking point for a lot of high end restaurants I can think of a lot of examples in New York of restaurants that previously didn't offer delivery now are offering delivery for some. That's the what's keeping the lights on for others. It's too much of a cost to pivot. What are your thoughts on this? Strategic Shift to delivery for restaurant previously had not engaged in that. I don't know I don't think you can put a one size all and so. I do think you know if you were good at it before. You're going to be good at it now because it's something that you have routine on expertise on certain menus suits delivered right and certain you have to do some shifting on what that's GonNa look like I'm sure there will be another delivery model out of that. I think about historically during post war so post any challenging situation. There's always a new system that comes out of that so I'm sure this is. I don't know what that's going to be but I'm sure Someone really smart is sitting in thinking about that right now. Non Of those choices were easy. I'll tell you that much. I want you to take a second to think about how you would entirely shift your business model on hours notice while you ruminate on that. Let's take a second to hear my partner. Business casual is brought to you by just works. Just works as here to support the small business superheroes working hard to protect their companies and take care of their teams with simple software experts support for payroll benefits compliance. And Hr just works take some of the guesswork out of running a business in both good times and bad. They know small business leaders. Where many hats and they're here to help you do it. All with just works. Seamless tools for managing remote teams navigating new legislation that includes scheduling tracking and staying compliant with new leave requirements from day. One and there are available round the clock for you and your team called slack chat text or email them just works as their for those who do it. All learn more at just works dot com slash business casual and now back to the conversation with chef. Marcus Samuelsson on how? The restaurant industry coping with Kobe. Like I said just before that breaks change has been a major theme for the Hospitality Space. Throughout this time. And it's hard not to start with the people talking about how restaurants are adapting. I understand the concept of community is enormous especially in the restaurant space. A especially when you're in a neighborhood as community centric as Harlem but really I think the same could be said Ver- from any of your locations. The same could also be said for the community that you've brought into the restaurant as employees as your team a red before this conversation that The the framework that you've put in place after all these closures serving meals pivoting. Your strategy has let you re reemploy like ten percent of your staff. I believe At Your restaurant so my question now is what about the rest of that team nor goal is to hire back as many as we can. Obviously this it's going to take months. If not years red rooster. We had under one hundred eighty employees. Seventy on top of that seven musicians and then all the other People that arrests brought highest the person cleans window. The person delivers deficient the chicken. You know like that you know. Restaurants very complex multi layered Moore's Industry that has many hands it actually the word restaurant to restore your community and it's GonNa take a long time to get all those positions back or goal is to hire back as soon as possible. But it's GonNa take a long time to preserve as many jobs as he could and help the community at the same time chef. Marcus partnered with chef. Jose Andreas World Central Kitchen. And that's really what we partnered with with Sandra's we'll central kitchen and extremely proud to say that we have served two thousand meals today between all three restaurants reckless Miami Newark and Register on a different partners in you know in Newark with audible. That helped us with to go combination with Michael Jordan and ending Harlem in anchor like city has out the so at the chef. We Cook for a lot of different people. We we have a lot of different relationships and this was to talk to us. I think it was really sweet reasons for us to do this right if you look at the chain the infrastructure food where farmers are burning their food. Because there's no restaurant but right by US serving in volume we helping that system to combat quicker second is obviously getting jobs fat and in Newark in Harlem we of ten restaurants up doing this. That provides some jobs back. And then thirdly obviously or I is actually the community are need to so many reasons what to do. Why do this we have to do safe way? And we learn that day by day. I know that those changes don't necessarily happen overnight. What kind of strategic decisions that you have to make before implementing this sudden pivot? What was that like for you to decide not to leave. Then it's okay. What are you going to do? And how you're GonNa have impact and we decided for many reasons. Harlem has really been so giving to my family to my to my community to to for us you know so. I want to be here and battle it out as much as we could. Those were the first decisions and then after that. It was some logistic right but like as a chef. That's what you do you deal with. Privee food premiership deal with You ability sire in this in the middle right that cooks WANNA come work for you but also custom was to get their purveyors wants to be part of it so once you got that big decision of going to stay then it was really about. Who would be the best fitting partners with clear pretty early that world central kitchen will be a great partners now? There's another major theme at play as the restaurant. Industry Copes and that theme is pooling resources together to achieve change. Its most certainly clearer in examples like chef. Marcus and chef Jose coming together to help deliver meals to those who need them. Most but similar sense of solidarity is evident in restaurant leaders efforts to persuade government officials to lend a little more a little bigger of helping hand. And I I know you take in something of a leadership position in trying to make sure that your chef colleagues at those in your your groups are taken care of and that they will be taken care of in the future. There does kind of beg the question. Though that is the government doing enough. Small restaurants are small businesses. They were supposed to be taken care of by the government with a bailouts with this relief program with the paycheck protection program. Do you think that restaurants have gotten enough of that to sustain themselves for the next several months no is the short answer is no. I think that it's important that the people in Congress at a dialogue that mirrors what small restaurants look like and it was clear to me. have not set up a group that is diverse enough. That how you're GONNA get insight to that right so. I must surprised not doing that. I I don't know what to say. I mean I'm very appreciative. Better stabbed here try. Because obviously new pandemic hits all levels but to me like they. The coalition needs to represent what small business looks like. And if you have a group that have an honest dialogue within a couple of hours. You can actually have something that mirrors. That would be helpful if you if you think that the fillets McDonald's is what is small business will let you clearly doesn't understand fully understand how restaurant America looks like you know and I'm not saying it shouldn't be room for them but it needs to be Abou- suppose and how can you have a collision where first of all. Maybe they changed it. But I didn't see a lot of women there right so it's only men that work from by the way there's zero people of Color in the restaurant industry. I mean think about that. I WanNa say the restaurant industry is not unique by having right a lot of the big businesses that you know I remember got help to in two thousand eight the biggest banks in the world the biggest airlines in the world so when restaurant community finally gets out of so many times anytime. There's a charity time. There's a big or small the restaurant people they are communities they are so I I don't look at US unique needing help to despair challenging time and I think it's a very rare. We actually don't want about. You just want to go back to work in. It's very simple. You know Are Being I can guarantee you. It would be zero. Stock buybacks for executives are bailout will go ninety nine ninety five percent back into the business right. Our bailout looks very different than major corporation. That does oh by the way we're going to buy bags for executives. That's a lot to stew on. It makes me wonder what it would look like. If every government appointed task force looked a little more. Like the industry who's wellbeing? It's supposed to be championing so we think about that. Let's take a short pause to hear from our partner like most of you. I have a lot of APPs on my phone and the APP probably use. The most is actually my banks radius. Bank has a rewards checking account that makes banking from your phone so easy and convenient you can track spending view transactions pay bills and manage. All of your banking needs at anytime from anywhere their award. Winning APP is like having all of the benefits of a community bank. No matter where you are they have no monthly or hidden fees and customer support seven days a week plus you get unlimited cashback on everything from groceries to pharmacies restaurants and entertainment radius. Bank offers one of the few checking accounts. Earn a solid interest rate on your money which as a business podcast host and finance enthusiast is music to my ears. You can apply online in less than three minutes and start banking from anywhere at go dot radius bank dot com slash morning brill. That's go dot radius bank dot com slash morning. Brill and now back to the conversation with CHEF MARCUS. Samuelsson on how the restaurant industry is coping with covid with chef Marcus. We've talked a lot about today's challenges. But what about tomorrow solutions? I want to know more about how the space comes back from this and what the future looks like for restaurants I mean. Will we ever get to eavesdrop on the couple on a second date about two inches away from us at the table to our left ever again? Most reopening guidelines vary greatly from state to state here in the US but we can pretty much count on less crowding once things start getting back to normal and that's assuming things ever do get back to normal. It's entirely possible. Many restaurants. Don't come out on the other side of this and it's not just the mom and pop stores but even the best restaurants in the world we've seen a lot of reports that even say the example that is is floating around the news as we're having this conversation is eleven Madison Park World's best restaurant in two thousand seventeen. The head chef said they're still a question mark whether or not the restaurant will be able to reopen. And if it does it's going to take millions of dollars it's GonNa take a lot of infrastructure changes if that's the experience at what was one of the world's best restaurants. What does that mean for the smaller businesses like the MOM and pop restaurants? That may be only have one location aren't owned by larger restaurant group. I mean I mean Daniel will be all right. He will be right. I can guarantee you that. He's an amazing talented chefs and he has so much to offer. But I think you said something There was really put. What's going to happen to the smaller? And I think that's why we work. You know everyone that works on the Independent Restaurant Coalition. They're going to be okay but it's not. The fight is more for. I think our restaurant community looks more like Queens. The Queens you go to Jackson Heights you go one of these communities. You WanNa go there. Because they're small ups. We've fighting for that your role when a platform you worked for a long time should be to not just for yourself but for the legacy the annual community and You know Daniel. Dan Is Amazing. He will be fine I I think you have to separate. The person versus may not come back. But I know that chef will create something that it's amazing. What that is. I don't know but I know he's amazing. So you know what I mean like you see that constantly rights through. That's the seeming in so many other. Everything that we enjoy is question. You know Broadway Comeback that doesn't mean George GonNa come back but how what shape right and at and you can go down the list. You know what I mean obe. All things around culture being asked is being questioned. Because we don't know how it's GonNa feel like to be in a big room collectively again. Just know that as for silver linings could tell you what's positive that's come out of. Its two things independent restaurant. Coalition Golf Shops and restaurant from all of the world along the country working together and representing you know getting our message to Congress to hopefully can be more fair deal of of the P A of the of the loan and because was clear that they didn't have voices that look like businesses And then you look at the government Restaurant Coalition. It was even clearer. That the know right but razzle leasing like independent So during difficult time people figure out out to stick together work together and hopefully not so difficult time to build those bridges. She can reach out to you network. And that's what I'm seeing like now. I do know that we've ever resilient and we're gonNA come to how learning to navigate that right now. Yeah it's it's going to be an enormous game of wait and see wait and see seems to be the name of the game these days not just in the restaurant space but I think the reason this fuel so much more visceral than reading about bank earnings tanking or private equity running low on dry powder is that restaurants are businesses. We feel deeply personal like I talked about at the top of this episode. Restaurants are community and chef. Marcus an emigrant. Who made his home in this country and this industry is the perfect example. I've still got a lot of questions about what comes next for this face and one of the biggest questions. What about the fast casual chains? That don't really have the same kind of reputation as chef. Marcus Red Rooster could cloth Napkins and rotating dessert menus. Actually be a detriment here. Do the places where we often eat but rarely sit. Get a free pass from this crisis. I want to find out so next on business casual. I'm talking to one of the founders of sweet green. Nicholas John to understand how his chain is planning on utilizing its competitive advantage tack to weather the storm and since week green has already lived through one major global financial crisis. I want to talk to an innovator. Who's just getting started in fast casual? So I'm also bringing in James Beard Award winner and owner of the newish fast casual spot field trip shocked Jay Johnson. Thank you so much for listening to this business casual and I can't wait to see you next time for episode with chef. Jj and nick from sweeping.

Chef Marcus Harlem New York City US Marcus Red Rooster Marcus Samuelsson Kobe government Oleo pugh National Restaurant Associatio America Red Rooster West village Marcus Danielsson government Restaurant Coalitio Independent Restaurant Coaliti partner Google Business Editor Congress
PMQs Unpacked 26-5-21

The Red Box Politics Podcast

46:08 min | 2 months ago

PMQs Unpacked 26-5-21

"This is the box podcast. I'm matt surely water day. Have you gone eat popcorn. Left calls talked about pam. And there's this other thing before pm cues this guy that was talking. We'll probably touch on that in a sec pm cues. I'm pat post johnson versus patch. Mcguire joining this week to unpick. Exactly how johnson reacted to those extraordinary claims from dominic cummings. That's coming up next our panel. No out thompsons day today. Her goal to be taken by john. Stephenson the daily mail. So john stevens and robert covington first of all in a sentence. Your initial thoughts so far Lab well for it started quite slowly and now he's warming up the hancock saying and you just mentioned trump the cia. Yes me to begin with. I thought it comes to bury boris. And he's and he's actually burying himself and keeps apologizing I mean. I think you kinda Speaks well of away. But it was more about general incompetence and chaos its filings and everybody's filings. But now he's getting into the specifics of a bit more. I mean well done to rosie cooper she And also held onto jeremy hunt. Left me thinking. Joe a wish. Jeremy hunted one related. Although although listening to it. You wonder if tommy cummings wishes that job while the toy leading your your initial thoughts. Well i think the key things that we've learned as the government was had moved to slow and it was chaos inside number ten which is all things. I think that everyone in the country's knew that was the case but hearing next with details over and hearing don't coming session all these schools going through everyone for johnson carry the dull komo said well mahan called a one by one throwing out these grenades of accusations against him i think has attention to be quite damaging as opposed the confirmation official confirmation teddy his version of events birth official confirmation of what lots of people suspect anyway is still is still notable this depending just sort of picked out some of the highlights soul you know the most significant moment so this is dominic cummings kicking off what hour and a half ago now he started with a very clear statement apologized to the families have lost loved ones during the pandemic saying the governor had filed the public since tips. Try to figure out what happened. And the lessons to be learned. I hope you'll get all the people involved are in here to to to speak to you about it. The truth is that senior ministers senior officials senior advisors like me fell disastrous short of the standard start. The public has a right to expect of its government in a crisis like this when the public needs. Most the government failed and other states wall families of those who who died and surly. How saudi i for the mistakes made unfamiliar mistakes about coffee messages in on that jeff saying refreshing to see someone except sounds responsibility for failure. The damage donald second lockdown to there which actually haven't even got onto yet Rebecca's i'm pretty much reflects what the who could have been focusing on refreshing to get a straight apology whether or not it's something. We've become unaccustomed to but then david says so. Far depth should never been allowed near the center annex as My thoughts are with the families. One hundred thirty thousand people who are no longer with us and the many many thousands whose lives have been changed wherever the really is often. I suppose that's the important thing. So far is the you know he was very clear. Upfront dominic cummings apologizing to all those affected. Do you think that we've learned something. Sort of devastatingly. New john stevens. That we didn't we really didn't know before the diverges from the The narrative of journalists We've had books already written on it. Is there something that we didn't know before. I think so far. No there's been no key thing he's come out and said the i still. Oh my goodness. I kind of believe that happened. You know the have been over slowly over these allegations about how they were mistakes in government. The hasn't been so far. Warne key thing that we've learned that you think. Oh mike or stocks to bring down the government for over it sounds as ours ours more and also you know at one point. He said he was willing to hand over the texas watson's between him and the prime minister oversee the committee with kings. Get agreement to get as much who've as much information as they can. I think he's not dominant. Cummings isn't going to stop and think think team carrier going. Stop freaking against him. That's the possible problem for the government as isn't going just end today. It's just going to keep going as possessing given you want you listed all the drive by shootings you know. Donald trump was trying to bomb the middle east Carry was particularly upset about storing the times about the dog at in the middle of all this he was source of in the alarm About how to respond to current of. Let's take a little another clip. This dominic coming telling the committee. Despite seeing the risks of covid on the news it was still not not really government pilot. Throughout much of january and february government itself number tad was not operating on a war footing in february on this in any way shape or form lots of key. People were literate skiing in the middle of february. It wasn't until it wasn't until the last week of february that there was a really any sense of urgency. I would say of course the Number of the radio on war footing in february As i said before in the first ten days of february now because there are all sorts of things going on those the two that was Those reshuffle going on and the happened on the twelfth and then the pm went away all holy see weeks then after that. I didn't go all day. I was in street throughout period. An i i spent more more of my of my time. I want to apologize for this. I didn't s- Obviously inveterate backed i. Should it be hitting the panic button for my boss. In february i did increase. We hit the panic. Button was february. Went on bought s- I like most people. I think were going league reassured. By things a bubble told the totally that was Discussing the impacts back in january february it on holiday back in february Do you get the sense that he Yet landing this idea eh comes in. It's dominic cummings land. That he was he doesn't seem to be so far at least as it feel as if he was the all knowing genius at the heart. You know he was. He thinks like everyone else was was forced to admit under some pretty decent questioning out. She both greg clarkin me winstons. He did not say wise cheltenham and liverpool going ahead. You now says he wish he had done by much as a lot of people at the central government and now wishes they'd they'd sounded the alarm earlier mean he hasn't been able to si- That he said he was a lone voice in the wilderness. Churchill in the nineteen thirties. Saying you know this is terrible and this has been warning against. Somebody obviously didn't do that. I think a couple of things in terms of use you said in terms of revelations. I thought it was interesting. The cabinet secretary thought matt. Hancock should be sacked. i'd heard that before and also i think cummings in his apology. He said the people have died unnecessarily now that getting into the public discourse i think he's quite significant because we have not heard that before the gum and saying that people died. Who didn't need to have that opens up a whole. I mean rosie. Cooper was talking about corporate manslaughter. I mean that opens up a whole avenue attacking terms of incompetence and so therefore the general air of chaos rather than saying. Oh well okay. They didn't know what they're doing governments. Never do it becomes rather significant. Doesn't it suppose it's sort of implied about. No one thinks that you know. This is the absolute minimum number of people that slightly different. But just put it out really put out that i think is that mean that headline for me. If if people died it didn't need to die. We sort of knew wait but he said it makes the that makes competence a completely different order. Doesn't it save. It felt one of the particularly interesting wins was when dominic cummings was asked wind and you push the. Pm hearts bringing lockdown bringing these meshes and. he said well. If i was wrong. I didn't know if i was wrong. That's the problem. The everyone has in government. It wasn't it wasn't the everyone knew the right thing today. When that was deliberately ignored the no one had the best information. We were learning about this virus. I think that is kind of the biggest guests out full. Boris johnson in downing street was the none of this was done maliciously the along the mistakes that were made which just made because it was just a chaotic situation. Even though the preparation had been jumped properly you mentioned His comments on matt hancock. Let's just take a listen to the dominant comes out to say about the house. Such i think the secretary of state for health should it be fired for at least fifteen thousand things including line to everybody in multiple locations in meeting after meeting in the in cabinet room on publicly. That's pretty strong. I mean the evidence. Like the boris saying bodies putting up in the streets People wanna see the evidence. I mean ashley ashley. Interestingly rosie cooper the labor impair on the committee also when coming out that the ball bodies piled up In the streets comment but she did it as part of a two part question and he answered the other and they moved on with somebody else's will be interesting to see if anyone if anyone comes back to their at. I suppose the key thing that we need to remember all of this is the matt. Hancock was fired. it was dominic. Cummings and he's a witness and all this but this is his truth is not necessarily detroit. Johnson yeah and. I think that he's not necessarily helped himself. In advance of today's hearing by putting out all of the tweets over the last few days the he has looked like a man with a grudge kind of former employees. Got a school was to set to even what he does say. I think it will get a lot of tension. Looked fit does have the potential to be hugely damaging for the government. I think he helped himself by putting these tweets out there the last days he does it. Luck extent Who wants to take down the government. And i think that would be kind of. Do people trust him or do they trust board stunts in more and i think a lot of the public will be suspicious of dominic. Cummings especially after what happened last year with hope. Barnard castle bawku chatting one day last week to a minister who'd beat in the womb for some of those early meetings and Yeah was was caught. Surprised given the you know the dominant comes confidence to sing at the back of those meetings. the main thing they remember from contribution was what a messy looked. You know turning up gardening close. And he's betty shoelaces face was used to me. You know he's sort of wise off the event. Now i suppose it's one of those things in the ultimately someone has to make it to the boys. Johnson's the wants to make the decision. It's on his shoulders will ever decision. He makes in terms of the impact on the economy. The impact on public health and we re dominant. Cummings louis modest thought. It was one in the country for large parts of this ultimately department is. He has all this advice coming at him from scientists and medical people from political people from super forecasters. And he's the one who has to sort of absorbable this information. Yes i mean yeah people will. I think we will have being very forgiving of the fact that Wrong decisions were made or right decisions. We're not taken or taken to lights because it was a. It was a a chaotic difficult. Unprecedented situation They generally willing to forgive. Boris a great deal on light in a way the apps they take a look at dominic. Cummings and think I'm not. I'm not totally sure about this man but what. They won't forgive if he can. These allegations about the The price that boris was prepared to pay to avoid the second lockdown. They will not forgive out but he needs to Needs to give us some evidence. John yeah i think in especially in this first section. When he's been talking a lot about the stage the scientists got it wrong. They were feeding us the wrong information. It matt's almost quite helpful for boris. Johnson he was getting this information that then turns out to be wrong. He's being provided with these strategies which out to be ineffective in the wrong thing to do. and so. if you're boris johnson you can say what was. I meant to force of an expert in united disease days. And so he was doing what he thought was best on the information they had available even though dominic cummings is kaylene airports. Don't some fun anymore. I think selling this first section from the surface that has been quite helpful in that way but as it says we come onto later stuff about the second knocked down you know. Last november happened around christmas time square. He's got potential which be slightly more damaging. John stevens comes now. Of course you can walk in the times. Every saturday anacostia to remain the toddler saturday. To just get yourself thomson. Subscription to the times four times box by up next off those claims and dominic cummings. Let's find out how. Boris johnson responded. His pm cues unpacked. Mu connection between a healthy microbiome and our health is clear. Meat pendulum glucose control a patented medical probiotic. That's revolutionizing the dietary management of type two diabetes by helping to lower blood sugar and a one c levels pendulum contains unique strains of beneficial bacteria often missing and people with type two diabetes visit pendulum life dot com for product details and use code control twenty to save twenty dollars on your first order every year. Compliance regulations changed thousands of times. And every your adp makes thousands of seamless platform updates so businesses can focus on everything else like running their business. Grow stronger with adp hr talent time n pero. You're listening to the vet box cost. Now it's time for this. Pin jews unpacked on times radio unpacking the politics and cutting through the crossfire order order. I ma jolie mcguire to announce we do need to get a whole load of those so they got all bases covered. So tim shipments away. This week i assumed that wherever he is holidays he's got a big bucket of popcorn in front of him and what he's been watching dominant coming so we are now what two and a half hours. Even patrick what's your main. Take away from it. I think matt hancock is going to spend this afternoon. Drafting a lengthy statement also op-ed that may appear in a newspaper tomorrow. Defending himself against those allegations is is my main takeaway. That's interesting you think. In terms of a lot of this is there's lots of dates and timings and production values and all of that but the the bull politics of the prime minister most seen in twenty six months ago for his senior aid appearing in public to give the covent sitting prime minister of say quite a kicking revealing that he at one point wanted to be injected on television with coronas. That's quite a thing. Well and also saying put him on a par with jeremy corbyn with whom don cummings worked to keep out of power with johnson. And that's does the interesting thing you know why he thought he was all for. Why campaign for him to resign his prime minister. That's an interesting question The politics said that matt hancock should be fired Some of the others in your wishes soon acts quite well. Chris witty to seems to come out of it all so far. We'll have to wait and see what happens when we get on the second lockdown but we know that kissed who's been watching all morning. This is a big test for him as a leader of the opposition. How hard do you think he's going to go and it will well. There's a wealth of material we know kissed armor is often uncomfortable or disinclined goes the jugular himself in his own words. But now he can quote. What's out tweets in abundance. Let's find out how how much of the last two and a half hours going to read out this. Go to the house of commons. His case star leader the opposition. Here's tom thank you mr speaker. Can i join the premise. Comments spot hills for a mike. Wetherby mr speaker this morning. The prime minister's former closest advisers said when the public needed us most the government failed. Does the premise agree with that. I mrs baker. The handling this pandemic has been one of the most difficult things is countries have to do very very long time. And none of the decisions have been easy to get into. A lockdown is a traumatic thing for a country to deal with the pandemic on. This scale has been appallingly difficult. And we've at every stage tried to minimize loss of life to save lives in inches and we have followed the best scientific advice that we can speak and stay in a nutshell is politics the criticism that you Failed you let the country down and goes johnson's response. He's it's an incredibly difficult thing. We did our best is very difficult. we try to minimize loss of life. Invocation being didn't always go perfectly. Well yes two things one. There's the old line about an unmanned even listen to talk radio earlier about Gabe votes not about how crisis begin. But how they end gutman's passing on that metric but the second thing saying it's not easy i saved. There's one floor with dominic. Cummings is testimonies. Argument is that so much of it relies on a sort of sex mackinaw argument where he says if only use read this book on super forecasting or if only use this data scientists friend of mine in charge. Nobody's ever heard of. It's all sorts of if only superman was in charge of the pandemic response. Things would have been fine whereas the goodman quite rightly or you know Perceptively is betting on the public Having sympathy for the fallibility of humans facing a totally unprecedented policy question. Though he's awesome. And this point there's also something vanek about case domine now Aligning himself with dominic. Cummings when the labor party done so much to discredit him and criticize even following the two bono carlson even more important joining the local election campaign this year. Their messaging for a couple of days was w pay wiser nurses and yet now he's a great ally well anyway. Let's go back question to kiss. donna speak can. I remind the premise that one year ago almost to the day he described his former adviser as in his words in every respect acting responsibly. Legally and with integrity this morning that same adviser has said that. Cd-rom ministers felt his words disastrously short at the standards that the public has a right to expect of its government. That lives were lost as result. Just the promise drip setback central allegation and that he's inaction lead to needless deaths. No mr speaker and of course all those matters will be reviewed in the in the course of the public inquiry that i have a nonstop. I noticed that he's fixated as ever on the on the rear view mirror. Speak while we are on this side of the house are getting on with our job rolling the vaccines making sure that we protect the people of this country that i think has being the decisive development on which people are rightly focusing. I can tell the house that in spite of the continuing concern that we have abide to the indian variant. We are increasing our vaccination program at such a rape. Though we can now ask everybody over thirty to come forward get again actually boisterous immediate answers most interesting. Thomas saying Do you accept. It's your actions lead to needless deaths and he replied no mr speaker well that is a direct rebuke to almost everything. Tony cummings has said this morning and it's interesting that he immediately followed that with the segue into abbott. Nobody wants to talk about the anyway fixated on the rear view mirror which interestingly is what. Grunge shops on the broadcast around this morning said about dominic cummings himself clearly. The government believes that kissed on dominik coming who've now both been cutting hindsight. I don't know what happens in the hindsight only when you've got to noncommissioned officer somebody Texted india saying He's field marshall. Hide dominant covid because he was obviously pit bull senior. But yeah i suppose that's the ultimate politically to get through this always. Johnson could just do what he's done him. Why did so well. In the local elections everything else focus on the vaccine and volume longley and people really dislike those weighty heights this but if recently biased the fact that people think the vaccine programs going by the fact that people are quite forgiving about an unprecedented thing hit and we have a precedent to base reaction to suddenly back in march anyway but interestingly a portion from saying no he's responsible begs the question. Well when he comes to give his testimony who is he gonna. Blame is and you know. An inch an intriguing in dominic. Cummings line was Monks will the secretary in the prime minister. Both agreeing that matt hancock was a bit rubbish. So when the time comes heathrow. Hong kong the buses. Well do us know what you think about this. You can text us eight seven trouble to start message of the word times. What did you think about. The exchanges pm cues a packed. Let's go back to house. Call questions three. Mr speaker is no good. The prime minister talking me his former chief. It's his former chief advice up. Who's looking back on telling the world how useless the promise to was taken cage efficiently his former adviser one of the most serious points. This morning is what the promise to fail to recognize the severity of this virus until it was too late dismissing. It is quote from this morning. Another scarce story like the swine flu since the to recognize to count of his own behavior. And if so what are you guys for being so complacent about the threat that this virus oppose this is anybody who credibly accused of being complacent about the threat with this virus. Any any point. We have worked flat-out mr speaker to minimize loss of life to protect the nhs while they have flipped mr speaker one position to another backing curfew. One day oppose the at the next backing bounds. One day opposing s calling for tougher border controls. One day then say that quarantine is a blunt cake. mr speaker. We got on with the job of protecting the people of this country from one of the worst pandemics in living. If not be worst in living memory we've turned the corner and it is no thank mr speaker to the loyal opposition opposite also loyal opposition. Possibly i feel now we've been here before I'm not sure the when case dhamma talks about now trying to to to quote dominic cummings necessarily what the thing that if you don finkelstein scholar and the time i always read anything. Let's collect because he's they're talking about it was your former adviser is your former adviser. Now says that you've made a mess of it and dance khalidi interesting on this. Basically what did boys johnson and dominant cummings think was going to happen when they shackled themselves to each other. How on earth boys comes with thought that that's always going to end in any other way to basically ended up in this situation. Always johnson obviously thought that he could change dominate coming summit coming so he could change posted. We all where we are. But also as you say we've been here before in the crucially labor's critique i that the government was too slow to act that it was slow on locking down. It was slow. Mpp was slow on a second down a circuit breaker. These are all questions. Kissed obama has asked of the before and the fact that they're now accompanied by damning testimony from dominic doesn't change the substance of the arguments being advanced on both sides. So the reason why it doesn't feel like here's armor. Despite the absolutely explosive seismic sensational morning. We've had in the committee room. delete applicable. Doesn't feel like he's knocking out of the pong because this is a fairly run of the mill session of pm cues with new hooks for famiglia questions that the prime minister's answered before given by now very well worn arguments in to his defense. I think that's probably it's so far. At least a case. Thomas questions have been quite board a not on some of the very close pacific's winstons. Did you ask chris witty to inject you with. Tv would be not a bad question to ask about. The house of case told me things to ask it up and see that the evidence of his former advisors really getting to the private smoldering in that response another incredibly serious statement from the prime status former advisor this morning consensus pumped up off the health secretary including an allegation. The health secretary misled other ministers and officials on a number of occasions. I don't expect the promise that to respond to that. But can he confirm from this morning's evident tamba prime minister john. He confirmed the cabinet. Secretary advise hidden the prime minister that he the cabinet secretary had quote lost faith in the health. Secretary's honesty answer to that is no speaker. And i'm afraid. I haven't had the benefit of of seeing the evidence that he that he's bringing to allies. But i i must say i think what the people of this country want us all to is to get on with the delicate business now trying to reopen our economy and restore people's restore people's freedoms get back to our way of life by rolling the vaccine. I would have thought that that was a much more profitable line of inquiry of the right honorable gentleman today. The people of this country want us to focus on well the booth. I'm afraid i haven't had the benefit of seeing the evidence. He's bringing the house today. Oppose johnson this not to watch so therefore he can't respond to any of the claims probably wise as a tactic jet. The suggestion box said well. Then cabinet secretary suggested sacking matt hancock in the march of last year. Yes and ex well. Exactly and here's the perfect storm. Thomas trying to brandish dominic cummings is oral testimony as it were as a as a trump card because it is fundamentally a case of. He said he said without note by the way that dominic cummings has not been playing. The much vaunted audio recordings of everything. The prime minister said privately to this committee in the absence of documentary evidence and for the most explosive claims. There is still very little kissed alma. Leaving himself. vulnerable to Being swatted away quite. He's been quite broad questions and he's getting caught answers pointing knocking. I fall on on that. A bit of support for matt handal but not masses for both johnson said. Let's go now question number five. In case speaking promised to can't have it both ways either. His former adviser is telling the truth. In which case the prime minister should answer the allegations. All the price has to suggest that his former adviser is not telling the truth which raises serious questions about the to judgment in portugal in the first place. There's a pattern of behavior here. There was clearly a lack of planning poor decision making a lack of transparency. Una prime minister who was absent from the key decisions including five hundred copa meetings and who was to quote his former advisor a thousand percent to obsessed with the media but another central allegation briefed overnight. The primis to delay the circuit breaker over the autumn half term because of quotes cove. It was only killing. Eighteen year. Olds remind the premise. The over eighty three thousand people over eighty lost their lives to this virus his decision to delay for forty days from the sage guidance on the twenty first of september until the thirty first talk toba will be as one of the single biggest failings of the last year does the now have been told of the evidence. Does the prime minister set three used. The words cove. It was only killing. Eight year olds or words to those effect. I'm gonna start with mr speaker. We saw what happens during the pandemic. Can he talks about the the september lockdown and a my approach to it and the very position that the country faced. And of course. This'll be a matter for the inquiry to to go into but we have an objective test. Mr speaking in the sense there was a circuit breaker of the kind. He describes in wales. It did not work. And i'm afraid to speak. I'm absolutely confident that we took the decisions in the best interest of the of the british people it and when it comes to when it comes to hindsight misses because just just remind the right on that he actually denied this at the time and then had to correct it but he voted to stay in the european medicines agency. This is big. Which would have maybe really is a greatest sedition the vaccine rollout. We have a interested in our denial on the substance of the allegation. Just as you recall the Heavy sunday night when the daily mail from page talking about letting the bodies pile high. I broke donny. Street ruin equivocal and said. This did not happen but every time you get administered the dispatch box fielding a similar allegations. Michael grove didn't categorically no that. That definitely wasn't a categorical. Denial they choose not to to be so. And i'm big us-south that's mildly interesting if the rest of the unsa drifted off into the european medicines agency. I'd all of that in terms of the art of pm cues and You know exploiting this crisis political advantage so far. Do you think a. Tom is doing enough to insert himself into this. I mean essentially the star of the show. Today's dominic cummings but a wheel. Political skill is to insert yourself into the story of the day i would say kissed homers encountering the problem. We always faces the. He is indeed insert himself into the narrative but he's leaving himself vulnerable as any any opposition leader in a pandemic of teas knowledge phrase hurling from the ditch. Backseat driving to say after. You've missed junction. You really ought to have you really also left the motorway there. It's it's position that garner's Very little public sympathy or political capital for obvious reasons and for our including lots of texting Basically saying this that this is you know political nerd. This is absolute. This is crack in terms of your obsessions. But we shouldn't forget that yougov poll you invite boxes week. Fourteen percent of people say they Trust dominant coming to tell the truth on komo voices. So he's not he's not necessarily a fascinating to listen to. He's not necessarily trusted witness for the country. No an ultimate who in their right mind is paying close attention lot. You and i are to a joint sitting of the health and science well valued at times radio listeners. But yes i accept it. They all all the rest of the country. Okay let's go back and see if we can pull altogether and landa punch with these final question. Two pm case speakers be giving evidence this morning gets his former adviser and the promises careful not to refute these allegations. Mr speaker. what we're seeing. Today is the latest chapter of a story of confusion. Chaos and deputy misjudgements from this government from a prime minister governing by press. Release not a plan in the last twenty four hours. We've seen the same mistakes made again with the ridiculous way. One point seven million people in bolton burnley bedford blackburn. Kirtley's hounslow lester. North tyneside have been treated in the light of the drip these very serious allegations of the failure of the promise to provide even basic scores continuing mistakes affecting millions of people. Just prime minister now recognize. He must brimful with the timing of the public inquiry. Tova should start this summer as soon as possible. Not mrs peacock. As i've said before i'm not going to concentrate valuable official time on that now whilst still battling dependent in i thought actually that was what the house agreed on speaking. He continues to play these pointless. Political games are once we get on with delivering on the people's priorities. Fourteen new hospitals eight thousand seven hundred seventy one more police on our streets. Now we're getting on with the railways mr speaker. We're giving people the opportunity of home ownership in a way they never have ninety five percents mortgage and we vaccinated we. Don't we live at sixty million. Vaccinations more loves these european comparison. It's more than any other european country including twenty two million doses and that with great respect for the right own room. I believe that is the priority of the british people. Ready what they're focused on our. He voted to stay in the european medicines. Agency they vacillate this speaker. we vaccinate they. They deliberate we deliver. You noticed as a bit more noise in the background are the few more. Mp's in the house of commons. The have sometimes the slightly lactation tools Although a huge cheers and other cyber in the light of the one of your favorite visual battles murkiest he suggests that the Public inquiries should be brought forward to the summer. Got straightforward no. Yes again and unser. The prime minister has given before unl- awesomely lots of politics. A lot of political messaging is asking the same question on making the same point again and again and again and again until such time as the public nelson agreed with you or until such time as you can a change in direction from your opponents and unfortunately the starmer at the moment. he's getting neider and he's not going to get either for the foreseeable. Future watching is changed indeed watching the entire exchanging case or on boris johnson. That you just think who would be leading the opposition one who will be lifted up during pandemic and three who would be leader of the labour party. I actually wonder any sort of touched on the sixth question. Multi of being better focusing on handling of the pandemic now the confusion it listed all those countries that countries all those towns and cities whether it's suddenly how these rules changed confusion now and they were very referring back to dominate. Cummings yes because labor's labor still have this. They're not doing much more willing to criticize the gunman in the early of the pandemic for obvious reasons but they still have this sort of vestigial desire to be constructive be perceived as constructive but the risk if you focus all your criticism on a bit of the pandemic that most public are inclined to now forget or give the benefit the dow and you implicitly accept the government's argument while it's hard not to the vaccine role. I was going brilliantly. And if you and your focus is on the first of the pandemic as you say you're neglecting areas where it's still possible to make hay to draw a line of continuity between the star of the desert the cassin confusion the star of the pandemic and now rav implicitly accepting the government's argument that it was rubbish. Then you really gotta grip on it now. Yeah that'd be a different Ways tie altogether well. That was Case tom is attempted to take you on a police johnson. Let's hear now from ian blackford. The snp leader in westminster. This is what he has to say. Thank you. Mr speaker can associate myself with the remarks of prime minister for those seeking justice for his song. You'll never walk alone mr speaker. Hundred and twenty thousand people have died of coronavirus united this morning the prime minister's more senior former adviser dominic cummings apologize on behalf of the uk government. He said when the public needed us. Most we failed. We know that the prime minister of catastrophic stroke the crisis. He went on holiday when it should have been leading efforts to tackle the pandemic. he was still slow to go into lockdown. He failed to secure our borders. He sent millions of people but to their offices. Prematurely there is no doubt that these mistakes cost many thousands of lives. When even a disgraced figure like dominic cummings is willing to own up and apologize. Isn't it time that the prime minister does the same mr speaker. I take full responsibility for everything that i've said as i've said before and he will recall both in this house and elsewhere. I'm truly sorry for the suffering that the people of this country have experienced. But i maintain my point that the active throughout with the intention to save lives and protect in an inequalities with the best scientific advice achy. Exactly what we dan foot. Thank you the evidence with have. This morning is extraordinaire. Sadly not surprising. It paints a familiar pattern of behavior. A negligent prime minister more concerned with his own self interest than the interests of the united kingdom when people were dying the united kingdom government was considering chicken pox parties and joking about injecting the prime minister with covert live on tv. We had a circus act when we needed serious government. Isn't it the case that what the country needed leadership most. The prime minister was missing in action. Thousands names have paid the ultimate price for his failure. When will prime minister finally it said the sponsor ability for the failures of his government strife said repeatedly in there tied take full responsibility for everything that the government did and i will continue to do. So one of the reasons we've set up an independent public enquiries. I believe this country do deserve to have daylight sean. On all the issues he raised. I must recognize the events that he that he describes. But i do think that we acted throughout with the intention of saving life a protecting the nhs taking the country through the worst pandemic of one hundred years. And i think if. I think it's also true that way in a much more fortunate position. Now thanks to the efforts of the british people and the fosters vaccine roll out in in europe and i'm grateful for that his world off for the first time. They saw chicken pox. Parties and injecting himself with tv were raised in a about unfortunately as in blackford star location and a series of questions and thoughts and points. Although boys i don't recognize the events as he describes them which by which he presumably means. The chicken pox party had much to mock said. We'll disappointment if he believed on pretty interesting to hear in blackford of all people signed dominic. Cummings is i d case. Tom won the week. Quirks of this committee testimonies. That you'll having people as you said. Earlier i have expended so much time and energy trying to dismiss dominic cummings is beyond the pale as now paragon of every possible virtue honesty but yes. I think the most significant the prime minister's onto their walls. He's he's he whenever spice when these difficult questions he issues. That sort of blanket apology for upset caused Claims full responsibility without necessarily accepting their version of events or the diagnosis off the commits failings and then deferring to the upcoming inquiry which says a very powerful political purpose. We'll just what we've been dipping into pm. Donald cummings few minutes is admitted. Anyone in the country through a global pandemic would've struggled he said in christopher the prime minister. But if you dropped you know bill gates or someone like that. It's that job on the first of march the most competent people in the world. You could possibly find. Any of them would have had a complete nightmare. There's no doubt. The prime minister made some very bad misjudgements and got some very serious things. Wrong is also the cases. No doubt is extremely badly. Let down by the whole system and it was a system failure of which include myself in that as well. I also failed bill. You know that reference to bill gates. Exactly what would save. They wanted to disguise the fact that he's controlling will by the vaccine. The benefit of the tape. Patrick is joking. Bill gates is not control of your exit. We've got time for on this episode of the red box. Podcast over gives to me. Live monday friday ten til one on times. Where do we bring you the best. Bits here on the puck. And if you're not white and view of you get your podcast. Form a connection between a healthy microbiome. Our health is clear. Meat pendulum glucose control a patented medical probiotic. That's revolutionizing the dietary management of type two diabetes by the lower blood sugar and a one c levels pendulum contains unique strains of beneficial bacteria often missing in people with type two diabetes visit and life dot com product details and use code control. Twenty to save twenty dollars on your first order.

dominic cummings matt hancock dominic Cummings rosie cooper johnson boris boris johnson john stevens Chris witty pat post johnson robert covington tommy cummings Johnson committee with kings matt greg clarkin ashley ashley Barnard castle bawku Hancock
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37:01 min | 10 months ago

Hi. This Is Your Bank. Give Me Your Account Number and Password | EP: 35

"You made it. You arrived this is. He's eleven towns advertising stories and your about to hear and detaining personal often instructive stories from deep inside the world of advertising. Hello this is wells fargo bank. Please open this important message by sending us your account number and password. Oh and while you're at it. How about sending us your social security number. Okay a no go. Really how about you. Send president mugabe twenty five thousand dollars for his startup in papua new guinea or we can all just go to amazon and by a new apple. Watch i'll need all of your screen names passwords credit card and a recent photo of your youngest child. Okay okay does. All of this sound insane. Well people deliver this information to strangers every day because they fall from malveaux zing. Hey advertisers and publishers. An even you. It is time you hear from malvern housing expert. Here is peter's interview with matt. Gillis the ceo of clean. I o mat. Gillis who are you and what do you do. Hey peter thanks for having me. I am the ceo of clean dot io. We're a company that protects websites and their users from the harmful effects of malveaux -tising. And you may wonder what malveaux -tising is because it's probably not in the dictionary. It is malicious advertising the easiest way to explain who i am and what i do what our company does If you on a website you've been scrolling up and down and all of a sudden it redirects you to a page and says congratulations peter. You want an amazon gift card or peter. Your phone is infected with thirty nine viruses. Click here because you can remedy that. We prevent all that in real time at runtime. So we make the internet safer. We publishers save their user experience and preserve their revenue and hopefully preserve their reputation at the same time. And how often does this happen. I always had this sort of perspective. I'm a baby boomer. And i watched the baby boomer and it seems like it's the baby boomers in the older generation that falls for the Although i don't see too many of many more than nigerian email send me or or your netflix. Your netflix bill. Payment did not go through. Click here to give us your credit card data again exactly. So that's happening. That is happening when i go to a potentially publisher website. Yeah i mean listen it all depends on what websites you go to where you frequent but it is actually pretty much Everywhere you know. I think one of the most people don't understand why it happens or where it comes from and the reality is this stuff comes through the advertising supported ecosystem so any website that makes money through ads. is at risk and the irony is the bad actors. In the case of alberton they're actually buyers. So they are buying ads on websites and using that as a trojan horse to try and infect your infect your device or create a user experience where they can create an engagement with you and get paid for some event so so yeah. Listen my wife as we're bed in the morning. She's checking her phone and looking at the sites that she goes to like it it. It often happens. It doesn't happen all the time because if it did it'd be easy to catch an easy to prevent these bad actors. What they do is they try and really fly under the radar like good advertisers would do they frequency cap right and they try to do it enough to get an roi but not dude enough. Not too much to get caught. Well i'm gonna use to First of all we i. I didn't say this earlier. But of course i'll say it in the beginning and the end yada yada on the show notes clean. I oh is that the name of the company clean dot. co dot. I oh i love those url suffixes i. We call you know had their growing indian ocean or input. Output is what they say. Okay all right indian ocean. I wasn't indian january. That's sadly another story. Here's an interesting metric for you. There might be people out there going. Well you know is this. How bad is this is real or not you. You guys have raised close to eight million dollars in vc funding. That would suggest to me that the market thinks that there is a problem. Is that a good metric Yeah i think that's a valid metric. I mean i think there's lots of startups that are able to raise a seed round of funding to take a swing and see if you've got a good idea that finds product market fit. I think as you as you move your series which is what we just recently did. We just raised five million dollars during kobe by the way. That's a good story and we can talk about that if you want. But yeah like listen. I think it's validation that we have a venture scale business. That's truly what happens. When you've raised a series. A round is that they believe that this can be a big business. And we've had rocket ship growth over the last You know kind of two years that we've been in market with this product so yeah i think it is a good. Kpi do you meet with the vc's online is this a virtual virtual virtual vc funding round. Will you told me that you love good stories. It is a good story but yeah we. We didn't started to raise our series a. at the end of february And i had a week. Two weeks of meetings booked for new york with all the big pc's And the week of which was the last week of february. Most the bbc's shutdown before anybody else did because as you can imagine these guys are like revolving doors of international travelers. Who were there to shake your hand and reach you and all that sort of stuff. So the bbc shut down early that pushed our fundraising round Into march and so. I started at the end of march Met with about forty different species. All over zoom never met any of these guys in in person and We managed over the course of sixty days to To to raise our series Still have not shaken. People's hands doesn't mean we didn't do a heck of a lot of diligence because by the way we did and so you just got to know each other in a different way. A real way of raising money. And i think v. sees and investors are trying to figure out how to proceed in the nor so feel fortunate that it's that it's behind us now. We're investing in the future while it used to getting finding you sir. Include the visit to. I forget the road in a sand hill rosanno. I've been sand hill road. And i've had some weird i i. I've raised money in the past and i had some weird offers the woke hundred and fifty thousand dollars which means nothing to them. Why so that. They get a little bite in case something happens. You know it's it's the casting Bryce seeds to hundred one wants to miss out and they all want even have your logo on their website. And i'm like what do i need to fifty. And yeah exactly. That's a whole vc. Story well congratulations on that and So interesting right. Raising money Without smelling the other person which is part of the year. Wanna get to Tiger lion land. But you know we all have ways of checking out other people. But you're we're gonna obviously come back to clean dot i o. But wanna ask you a little bit you. You have a history of building companies. What what have you built and sold. I've been really fortunate In my career so Got my training. Working for wireless carriers So i worked for bell mobility in toronto canada. I'm canadian and then Spent a few years at verizon wireless down here and you know so. The first company that i was part of that was A success video game company in the early days of playing video games on cell phones. This is before the iphone so this is when you used to play a video game on your you know your lg six thousand or your motorola razor if you remember those devices were deep in your drawer there but Yeah so we. We built a company that our biggest game was a tv game. show called. Who wants to be a millionaire and So we required by japanese video game company called capcom one of the early I would say like console. Game builders Their games were like street fighter. If you remember that one in the arcade or resident evil which was made into movies as well but anyway they were hardcore games company. They bought are casual games company because they saw that the world was moving too casual. Did that then actually went in the ads business so i spent probably the better part of the last eight years before coming to clean working for millennial media which was a Early mobile ads platform. That really helped app developers Make money in the app developer ecosystem. I lived it and gets one of the reasons why i've had some successes that had empathy kind of along the way in living these problems that i'm now solving But the problem. I had at capcom was we couldn't get people to spend a dollar to buy a game in everybody. Goes in buys a coffee every day for five bucks but they won't spend one dollar a game that they'll get use out of for a long period of time so the ad supported model in in the app ecosystem became really important. And obviously it's huge dates while your apps for free that you could download and so i was with them. We took the company public. We then sold the company to aol we Which was acquired by verizon. So i am back at verizon honestly and then we ended up acquiring yahoos as part of a bunch of big fundamental changes in the ecosystem over the last eight years specifically in the ads related ecosystem fortunate along the way to really cut my teeth in some of these. I call them like game changing times in the world especially with the evolution of the mobile device. and how. it's become the epicenter of what you do all day every day. Well going to come back to a awhile story but since we're on a roll here this malvern i'm i've got to imagine one of your primary platforms mobile. So how does malveaux -tising does it work differently on mobile and desktop. I mean it's they. Don't discriminate the bad actors. Any one of the things. That's interesting a lot of people say like we'll how does it work or why. Why does it happen. You know you need to kind of peel. The layers of the onion back to understand who it is behind all this and and we'll call them bad actors but these bad actors are actually performance advertisers. Right so i they're the buyers in quite frankly the most sophisticated buyers on the planet because they're the guys that have figured out how to buy an ad pro grammatically for. Let's call it a dollar per thousand impressions most real advertisers. I know your podcast. Talks to advertisers and agencies and most real advertisers by that same ad and they'll cross their fingers and hope that a half of one percent will click on that ad engage but these bad actors have figured out how to initiate malicious javascript to actually create a one hundred percent click through rate. That's why when you're scrolling on your device and then all of a sudden redirects to that you want amazon gift card page That's basically dam creating clicks and getting hundred percent clip rate They've got business models on the other side of this thing so you'll often see something that might say obviously not where you're living But hey we're glad you're a comcast customer. Please take the survey. And what they're doing is they're repurposing knees you know Affiliate based events into Like a billable affiliate marketing engagement. And so they can target. Because they know that you're a comcast customer because you're actually devices connect to your comp comcast wi fi They're very sophisticated in how they operate So that's that's really how it works and why it's a problem and you know any of these times where you've got these big ecosystem where there's tons of money flowing around that tends to attract bad guys so it's this. This is a matching cross platform. Is it on. Its effect facebook. It affects eat anywhere where users are engaging. Ads are served. They can buy and so yes on facebook. As you. it's big problem on facebook when you are scrolling through your newsfeed on facebook and other someone has shared a to a new story or Quite frankly some websites actually by ads facebook to try and get people to come to their site when you click on those ads or those stories. it effectively launch you to the web page of that website But it keeps you within that. Facebook embedded browser view. So yeah. I mean the the bad actors. It doesn't matter whether it's desktop or whether it's mobile think of it like it's offer driven right so if somehow the you know the profit motive was to get app downloads for a vpn software into do that. They have a landing page. That says your phone has forty-nine viruses they would only target mobile because they would want you to download that app mobile In some cases some of the scams are on your desktop. where it says you're norton. Antivirus has expired. Click here and often many times. People will click there because they'll be fearful of what that messages and they spoof. They spoofed the experience. They spoofed the brand To make it look so real that you would want to click on that so yeah it's They they don't discriminate really. It's all about engagement narawa. And i think as you think about sophisticated performance marketers. You're going to be very precise to where you spend your media. And if you're not getting that are why you're going to actually direct your dollars away from non-performing media sources so so that's how they operate. I divide their skill. Set into one is obviously the technology and the programming that can allow this to happen and then the second is the product that they're putting out there which is which is you know sometimes almost gets me and i'm going to say i'm pretty sophisticated. I've been doing this internet thing since the mid mid nineties i'll go. Oh it's you know netflix. Yeah my bro. I trained my brain and hopefully my family to realize that. Wait a minute. When was the last time that flicks. You know Ever when do they direct a message. Soukous netflix's smart. Enough to say. I don't i don't wanna fuck this up right. You know. I don't want you to start thinking that whenever you see my name should click on it. Some thinking. the creative side is pretty special. Creative side. I mean again. Look like you talked to advertisers and agencies. What's important the creative right. That's the thing that you're looking to get the engagement out of. And so yeah. I think they spend a lot of time and money testing creatives and i would imagine just like any other. Great performance advertiser. They're gonna run ab tests and see what works. And what doesn't but yeah they they've really gotten in this In this mode lately that we've seen at least in the last year or so is like really getting sophisticated with like how beautiful they're creatives like look and and how You know. Sometimes i think they have spelling stakes. Just like you can tell. It's probably not their first language that they've written it in So that to me like the netflix were always gets me almost and then i read it. And i'm like oh. They told that word wrong and it had they not that they probably would have got me. But i king with a j. Yeah you know it's just it's too easy but but yeah i know. I think they've spent a lot of time and energy and investing in the technology to obviously create the engagement and get people to auto click on things that you didn't click on and then once they get you the landing page. It's all about workflow and you through that thing to get the bounty that they're looking to get For whatever the engagement is they're getting paid on so whether it's an app install whether it's a form fill like a survey completion whether it's a let's capture your p. i. Your email address for a sweepstakes again. Just like any performance advertiser who is their customer. You know it's hard to say. But i think their customer or their partner I would think are some some semblance of the affiliate world Where you know marketers pay affiliates and then sometimes they lose sight of who gets a hold those offers and or how those offers are used the example that i used about like you know comcast i mean i have had that happened to me where i get redirected to a page. When i'm at my home on the my wifi. That says you know. Take the comcast survey. I am sure that comcast somewhere has has gone to a marketing agency. And said listen if you can get me survey completions from my existing customers and find out how happy they are or what what services and features that they would like from us will pay you a bounty for that And so what happens. Is i think these affiliate offers kinda get retreated and retreated and retreated and lo and behold now somewhere there's someone that's redirecting users having a terrible user experience but landing people on these pages to try and complete a survey so i think that's probably where it works because these bad actors aren't calling comcast themselves comcast would probably never take that phone call but you know if the kpi for comcast is let's get survey completions while as you know there's folks out there that can help you get those. I'm spinning a little bit of these guys. Have three things going for data which is readily available to everybody. These days a great programming. I'm for some reason i'm visualizing europe. I don't know why other than they do. Pretty good job over there and finally creative. So i mean that's the holy grail of tra- triumvirate. Whatever is the way. I think there's a fourth leg to that stool which i think is access right. I mean if you think about it. Accessing consumers has never been easier and over the last ten years. If you look at the media world has changed in the last. Ten years obviously emitting less editor fifteen or so but like programmatic media like buying and selling impressions on a unique user base at real time at run time in that decision happens an how pervasive that is across the entire internet across every device. I think the the level of access and the openness of that access has really you know it's been something that obviously every real advertiser has taken advantage of and i think even more so the bad actors Just a an unlevel playing field for them to go out in an attack this ecosystem because he used to have to talk to someone to put an ad on a website used to have to create an insertion order. And you know in that world probably play too well for the bad actors but the moment that you could actually put your hands on keyboards and set up targeting and you know do unique creatives and unique landing pages and really get sophisticated on on delivery because of that access. I think that probably changes. That's why in the last ten years or so when i was that millennial media back in two thousand ten like this was a problem for me in my world back then. And that's how long has been going on you know and we didn't really have the tools to protect from it at the time because the bad actors were really just out innovating so i think The access to consumers is probably maybe point number one aside side mentioned When i started building websites in the mid nineties and the companies that i would look at and learn from. Were the pornography websites. They were generally way ahead of everybody else in terms of use of internet based technology. That's probably another conversation i'll have with. Maybe donald trump when they went and if he's available. I'm not really familiar with what you're talking about. Peter but yeah maybe good use of tech would say right. Yeah listen. I think And figuring out how to profitably as well as far as i'm concerned in our world. I think everything's free for the most part and those people that pay but they figured out how to make money and that's the same as the bad actors in this space. Is they figured out how to make money. And that's what makes it so compelling for them and that's why that's why it's a problem you know it's interesting like my family my friends. They asked me what i do. And when i explain it they totally get it because it happens to them. They've experienced it. They felt it and they felt it on. Cosco top ten websites. It's not this isn't something that's buried in the underbelly of the internet. This is something that happens. You know on websites that you probably go to on a regular occasion and how is how easy or difficult is it to sell into the media companies. They're your primary customers. Yeah yeah. I mean so the primary folks that we would sell to our the media companies the website owners in the monetization platforms so the. Sp's i think are also another another query of business for us but how easy is it to sell them to publish. While i mean part of but it was probably a lot easier right. I mean kobe has had pretty big impacts on media publishers. But i think at the end of the day it's really expensive to create great content. It's really expensive to attract users to your properties and once you've done that you've got to protect them while you're there and so most publishers that we talked about this problem they totally get it and they get it because if they don't have protection you just look at twitter and their end users will be complaining about it on twitter right so users pretty vocal even when it's free and They'll let you know that you got a problem. So you know. I think published most publishers will take this seriously because they want to protect that asset which is their relationship with their end user. How has that pandemic thing affected your world. It's been super interesting to see you know when when the pandemic hit in call it you know. Obviously the facts started. But when when. I think maybe marched the tenth or something like that when when we all really started going to lockdown advertisers all. The big brand. Advertisers started pausing their spans right. And so as you know in the media business you know it's kind of cyclical that you know. The the end of month end of quarter are generally more active specifically for brand advertisers. They're looking to you. Know spend their budgets and so when a lot of brand advertisers like you know call. It travel advertisers hotel airline entertainment. All the things that got shut down sports. They all started putting their spending that actually created some pretty dynamic challenges for the ecosystem. Cpm's publishers went down. fill rates for publishers. Went down and if you're a bad actor and your performance media buyer you're looking to try and capitalize on these sort of events and so we actually saw quite a decent surge in malvern gang activity As the pandemic started so in kind of call it mid to late march and through april as brain. Advertisers started to come back and spend started to come back and call it. Mid may we started to see that threat level start to decline again. But for us i think the disruption ecosystem peaked kind of as the work from home and virus. A virus lockdown took off And also i mean listen. Traffic increased right so so many different forces that i think made it challenging for publishers. And so that that's kind of it and we saw you know in key countries where the virus was active. So call it. You know western europe. So germany france spain italy k. North america like that was where we really saw threat levels from our -tising increase over the early days of the virus. You just raise money. What are you gonna spend it on well in running a company moz. If you read sas blogs most people say the first thing you need to do is hire a head of marketing and the crazy part is we. We didn't do that. We actually just hired head of marketing this week. Which is kind of crazy. But i i think the reason is is we. We really put all of our money into our product. It sounds cliche but like we really focused on solving the problem and winning the hearts and minds of our customers and we figured that if we did that they would all tell their friends how good we are. And that's exactly what happened so we've grown to this size. Where now over. Seven million websites have our code running on them all because of word of mouth and we put a ton of energy not just in a product but into the client success team until like making sure that our partners really have the support that they need and it's resulted in in a net promoter score of eighty six so we we measure our success in one of the main. Kpi's that we look at our net promoter score because that's the thing that you know you've got happy customers. They're going to tell to friends so what we're going to continue invest in his product. We've got a couple of jason sees. We're looking at and new products That we're going to be bringing out over the next few months. Maybe i'll come back and tell you about those ones because one is super interesting that i think you'll you'll quite exciting but yeah just investing in our people in our tech and continuing to scale. So it's pretty. It's pretty simple. You know if you the right product you you'll you'll win the hearts and minds. Yes i'm sure you don't probably love these guys that produce the but there they'll be around for a while by the way i happen to know that your net promoter score is higher than troodos political here with no no. I'm trying to prove. I'm an international guy. A french names on there. You go right now. I think we're proud of it. So you're not afraid to say that so this not a problem the neck i mean you know you have to make it happen you really. Your next stage is awareness growth within the publishing world. How's your awareness within the advertising world. The the agency world will say what's interesting is most folks. I think on the advertising side and on the agent side agency side. Don't really think about this problem. And they and they really should the problem that i think most people focus on on that side of the world it when you when you use the word fraud is non human traffic or invalid traffic right. Nobody wants to be buying ads. Where it wasn't a real human sitting beside you know behind the device with an opportunity for engagement and by the way i i've t invalid. Traffic and non human traffic has been a big problem in the industry. And there's a lot of great folks that out and solve that problem and we're not one of them we have not gone in focused on invalid. Traffic the problem that we focus on his actually win. Everybody's deemed that it's valid traffic. It's unreal consumer a real device a real network and why i think advertising agencies need to think about this immed- ask the questions of whether you know the people that they're buying from have this protection. Is that if you think about it. you know. Generally on our web page. There's probably three or four ads and About actor is buying one of those ads that actor generals and buying all four of them. why would they. They don't need to file for these need to buy one to get that one hundred percent. Click through rate but what that means that. They're three other real advertisers on that page. And what happens when the users are hijacked away to these pages that they can't get back to is that all the three legitimate ads that were bought on. That page are no longer engage. -able if you've had the experience yourself you'll probably know that the back button is usually disabled like this is one of the things that the bad actors do they leaving really lock you in that experience so you can't get out and one of the things you probably have to do is either restart your browser and restart your phone. And then you can't get back to that page that you're on so i think there's there's a return on adspend impact that this brings to advertisers. That are you know. Hoping for real engagements So that's that's one of the things. Why think they should be thinking about it But generally that's not the first on their mind as they're looking back at their media buys right. Well it certainly seems like something to major. Advertisers should be thinking about especially if their brands are getting hijacked to right. I mean like if your visa or your american express her your walmart or amazon or the wireless carriers your brain constantly being hijacked in these things because they're spoofing you to try and get engagement so yeah i think a lot. More people should be focused on this. And and by the way. If if they're folks in your audience that that Are curious about this. I'd love to talk to any of them and really help them. Figure it out. I will definitely Let the world know who you guys are in on my website and in the show. Notes i you know. It's always funny with show notes that people read them. Who knows you know. There's so little research on podcasting. It's very interesting for such growth category. The exactly you x. Of podcasting is the remains an unknown. A let me say two things. One is i think what you're doing is fascinating It's one of those areas that really demands more awareness and You know given The effect of the pandemic on the media world. Excuse me the media world the advertising world advertising agency world. These guys are so consumed with other things. It's interesting that this is a problem that they're dealing with personally right. It's not just a business proper dealing with the personally which is always Always interesting You know like that. Oh yeah they happened to me last week or or my sister clicked on this and now the following is happening. So it's definitely a problem. Yeah i see the people were so close to these things that we often forget that we're consumers to while there was an old. What was it. David ogilvy that said the consumer your wife something like that. I don't know the quote. I wanted to just make a point one. I want to come back to. Aol story of. Because i didn't want one interrupt early. I haven't told us during a long time I was the of development director at saatchi and ninety four so long longtime ago and i was in london moved back to new york. I discovered Digital stuff Roms if you remember right and of course then. The graphical browser came out. And i said to the agency we gotta get into this and For many many reasons they didn't. So i said well i gotta get in so i found this guy at a company called redgate communications. Probably something you don't even know about. And i went down to florida and was like the first digital agency was owned by ted leonsis of course eventually became whatever chairman who knows what title available so go down to ted and i say so. What is this explains it to me. And he says can give you some advice. I said yes please. He said. Peter get the fuck out of advertising so a year later i was raising money for things anyway. Make a long story short. i went into publishing. I worked for advance publications and put their newspapers online. Okay that was that a few years later. I with france. Launch company called active buddy which was in the bought business You probably played with smarter child which was on. Aol and microsoft. You could talk to a computer using instant messaging multiple conversations with aol. Microsoft yahoo and i thought awol had to buy us because we had millions of people. We are on their buddy lists right in the good old days and so i am so stressed out as the ceo of this company trying to raise money am a mocking up fifth rings. It's ted and he goes. Hi peter. it's ted. I said what's up ted now like my heart is in my mouth kind of thing and he goes. We're not buying you. And i said ted six years ago you told me to get the fuck out of advertising. Now you're telling me you're not by my company. So i help a brother out ted whatever. He's he's britain whatever. I'm really sorry. I have to go by the capitals. Are the wizards right now. I'm a little busy but it. My here's my point. you You've him sweet spots. And and and the a clean dot i o. Sweet spot sounds like a good one. And i wanna thank you for your time and i also want to look forward to hearing about whatever is up your sleeve because it sounds like you have sort of large sleeves. Well listen i think a similarly. When i left oath which was verizon media and after spending last eight years in digital media and advertising i had said hey i think i need to do something different and so within folks look at me now and they say hey man you're still in digital media like willie but the reality is is we're actually cybersecurity company. It just so happens that digital media companies are customer so so for me. I've gone from this like games to digital media to now cybersecurity. Like i'm excited about how i've been able to kind of deal with the same sort of customers but in completely different a completely different lens of attacking a problem so yeah you should have got out of advertising but you know. Hey sports teams are they really that lucrative. I don't know about right now. No it's sexy. you know. it is sexy but god. There's a lot of empty seats you know they're they're they're valuable. When sell them right. I think so but i listen. I think it used to be all about the media contracts. Right i mean. That's that's what the value is in these things. I know. user behaviors are all changing. It's not what it used to be. Law make two predictions one. It will get better someday. And you're in a business. That's growing so i congratulate. Listen the the money that's coming into this world right. I mean bad actors chase money. Why do they go. Rob banks because there's a lot of money there so i think we're in the right spot and know. The reality is most businesses launch products. And move to the next one in this business. You cannot do that. You need to launch a product and continue to innovate because the bad actors are innovating. Faster than anybody else. So for us. This is a game of cat-and-mouse or constantly iterating in innovating exciting. To not know what tomorrow will be like most would be very stressed by that. But for me you wake up on a saturday morning and you're like oh wow this massive attack last eight across these countries and we were ready for it so it's kind of fun cool. I like that. you're a cybersecurity company. I think you get a higher multiple on that note. I'll say thank you. Thanks for having me. Peter and i'll come up to baltimore sometime. We'll cracks and crabs crabcakes me. Thanks a lot man thanks peter. Thank you for listening to the advertising stories. Show with matt gillis. Ceo of clean dot io about melber -tising in the bad boys of the internet. Speaking of bad boys. There will be lots more interesting interviews coming up so. Please subscribe to this show where you listen to podcasts. Or we will use your personal credit card to buy peter a new model x. Tesla by the way many thanks to mr robot for helping to produce this show.

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Super Tuesday is days away

Left, Right & Center

51:53 min | 1 year ago

Super Tuesday is days away

"This is Kelly Gough of the daily beast and welcome to left right and center. You're civilized yet. Provocative antidote to the self contained opinion bubbles that dominate political debate if the last week of February and this week the trump administration ready for battle in the war against corona virus after a tough impeachment. Fight could this actually become the biggest crisis of his presidency and during the chaotic debate? The remaining Democratic candidates made their case in South Carolina will the first southern primary. Be The last stand for some presidential hopefuls after South Carolina. It's onto Super Tuesday. We'll look ahead at which issues are likely to decide. Contest in fourteen states and America Samoa and which candidates are likely to emerge with fresh momentum versus which candidates are likely to face a final reckoning and speaking of reckoning author. Linda Hirshman will join us to discuss the recent conviction of Harvey Weinstein and her book reckoning the epic Battle Against Sexual Abuse and harassment. Now let's bring in our left right and center panel today. I'm your center filling in for Josh Barrow. And I'm joined by Henry Olsen senior fellow at the ethics and Public Policy Center and calmness at the Washington Post on the right and on the left Elizabeth Brunette of the New York Times. Hi Hello Hi this week. Corona virus transitioned from an international crisis to America's most pressing health emergency. It was just announced that the first case of Corona virus of unknown origin has been diagnosed in America specifically in northern California. This means that an American resident with no immediately identifiable trail of contagion has contracted the illness meanwhile White House Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney asserted. The press is over hyping the virus to try to hurt president trump politically president trump spoke to the press to give his thoughts on the corona virus threat. There's no reason to be panicked about but when I mentioned the flu I said actually I asked the various doctors. I said this is just like fluke because people die from the flu and this is very unusual and it is a little bit different but in some ways it's easier and in some ways. It's a little bit tougher but We had so well under control. I mean we really have done a very good job. I will say that I'm no doctor. But medical experts seem to agree that the virus is not actually easier than the flu But as a testament to just how seriously president trump is taking the Cova nineteen threat. He appointed vice president. Mike Pence head of the new corona virus taskforce. Henry want to start with you. There was some immediate blow back to the fact that Mike Pence's head of the Co Coronavirus Task Force because as governor of Indiana. He presided over the state's worst HIV outbreak. And I and I thought that was a bit of a stretch to kind of compare being governor of a state that's in with an HIV outbreak to being appointed head of a task force with a very different kind of Health concern but specifically what people were pointing out is is that part of why the HIV outbreak reached to new heights while he was governor was because of his his opposition to needle exchange programs and so basically the criticism. I've been hearing is that. It's it's kind of indicative of an overall rejection of scientific basis for policy that the trump administration the president himself and the vice president hold and there's a concern that that is part of what slowed A more aggressive response to corona virus and that appointing the vice president head of this task force is is actually not proof that the administration is moving in the right direction. What are your thoughts on that? I think just another example of trump derangement syndrome a version three thousand five hundred sixty three. There's just nothing this president can do. That can possibly be applauded As something. That's good for the country. I think putting the vice president in charge shows that he's taking it seriously putting somebody who's directly responsible to him and elected by the people so there's political accountability unlike when president. Obama put Ron claim in charge of the Ebola outbreak in twenty fourteen. You know an appointed staffer responsible to the vice president No one thinks that Mike Pence is going to be sitting here making or no rational person thinks that Mike Pence is going to be sitting here making decisions about the details of the response. What he's doing is convening The experts who are going to be making those decisions and providing political accountability I think that's the right decision to make and I think people who are trying to do otherwise are people are putting politics above the Publican. Well one of the things I read is. Is that the concern that the fact that this administration has been slow to fill out of position. So for instance there are nearly seven hundred vacant positions at the CDC that crisis like these are the moments where that comes back to haunt A president is that true. Or what are your thoughts having covered a number of IT industry? Yeah no I have not the. Cdc hiring practices is not my usual beat at the Washington. Post on can't say that this is above or behind what other administrations have done. You know I think what we can take solace in is exactly one of the things that many people don't like about the president. Which is America first that this is a person who is going to as he said in his press conference. But the safety of Americans I all other considerations Going second and that means I think that if he needs to make the politically charged decisions to reduce imports travel to economically significant countries. He's going to do and he's not going to bat an eyelash about it and he's going to move on with that And then I think he's likelier to take at this point quick decisions that could be criticized for being overreactions rather than the contrary I think that the president has behaved perfectly. Well in this case and I think we might actually see this as being one of his final hours much to the surprise of his Legion of detractors. One of the realities were now facing. Is that the virus is not just having dire medical implications. It is having a devastating impact on the global economy It actually just marked the worst week for the stock market since two thousand eight economic crash so Liz I guess my first question to you is the fact that that Mike Pence has essentially been deputized by the president to lead the response to this virus really reaction to trying to solve the medical crisis. We're facing or is it. A some people posit the presence efforts to stop the crisis from tanking the economy which frankly has been the issue that that is making a second term for him. Look well within reach because even for people who may not love him or love his tweets. The economy has been doing fairly well for a lot of people. Yeah I mean. I'm sure it's a little bit of both right anytime. Anyone is appointed to a very public position aimed at sort of steadying. The ship in circumstances like these You know I think Ron Claiborne was the bolivar And and was much ballyhooed for similar reasons. The idea is To control The incident to try to limit infections and to direct the public health response but also an and not ridiculously right. This is a very very important role To try to manage the public response So in these Public health crises. The way that the public responds is extremely important. In terms of determining health outcomes. And it's also just important in terms of people's quality of life If there is a a huge economic impact That hurts people and it doesn't hurt people in the same way and perhaps the most dramatically getting sick or losing someone to an illness but it does hurt people. And so I. I don't think it's ridiculous For a president and trump's position to be you know thinking of ways to manage sort of public sentiment. I'm not sure that pointing Mike Pence The Kovic Nineteen's are a has actually made anyone feel much better about it but I do think that is you know part of trump's effort there and and it's not a ridiculous effort. I had actually forgotten about this. But not about Hurricane Katrina but in terms of the political fallout having some legs. Meaning one of the things that I was reminded of in just reading the coverage of this virus is that the Bush administration as we all know it was widely criticized for how responded to Hurricane Katrina and the GOP ended up suffering significant losses in the midterm elections. Afterward could this health crisis end up having a profound impact not only on the presidential election but on other races throughout the country? Absolutely absolutely I think that if we do see widespread community transmission of Cova nineteen lots of people get sick Hospitals are overwhelmed and and crucially a lot of people Will be able to move to the front of the line and others won't be able to based on their income So I think if a circumstance like that happens and you see lots of poor people. Lots of elderly people struggling to get the kind of care that well to do. People can secure very easily I think that will highlight Critiques that folks like Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth. Warren had been making the American healthcare system. That you know it's a for profit industry it's a business not a right As my former colleague Meghan mcardle once wrote That is the reality of it in the United States and the reality is pretty ugly and pretty easily discerned to be ugly in the event of a pandemic. Well that's certainly one of the defining stories of the last couple of weeks and we're gonNA keep our eyes on it What other stories are you both keeping your eyes on Henry? I'll start with you the story. I'm keeping an eye on. That doesn't really get a lot of attention as what's been going on Alaska over the last year That you've got a deep red state. Where the governor try to enact a Republican Orthodox economic policy which is cutting government dramatically and In order to right size the budget any subject to a recall And he's been backtracking as fast as possible. And I've been writing about this. I think it's just another piece of proof that Republican or Economic Orthodoxy of small government At all cost is dramatically unpopular in the country and it's one that if Republicans we're following more closely You would see a lot. Saner economic policy coming out of Washington from the side of the elephants. Then you often see so. It's something that I see regularly recur back to because I think it's a very instructive about where the mind of the American people are which is very different. From where a lot of people on the conservative movement. Thinking is so if you were a betting man and you had to to gamble right. Now what do you think are the odds of Governor Dunlavey of Alaska recalled about fifty fifty? You know is that They don't do very much polling up there but The if you take a look at how Alaskans vote They actually would prefer somebody from the center right to the right and What drastic budget cuts Do is Scare those people under saying that the thing they value more which is public services are at threatening that he was talking about cutting the budget of the University of Alaska by forty percent. Talk about a way to get moderate. Republicans deciding that you are not fit for the office and he was doing it in order to maintain Increase THE ANNUAL. Check that each Alaskan receives from the permanent fund which is funded by oil revenues from sixteen hundred dollars. A person to thirty two hundred dollars a person if you can't get a family of four excited about getting sixty four hundred dollars a year extra from the government and that they would prefer government services. That's a pretty damning indictment of the small government agenda and I think that's why his Ostra fifty fifty and I think that's why this year he's fired his budget director. Who set him up for this mess. And he's been running away from last year's budget as fast as he can. Liz what stories. Are you keeping an eye on this week? In a very busy and contentious Democratic primary Lots of policies have come and gone. and Bernie Sanders released one last week. That didn't get much attention in light of everything else that's happening in the news but I think would make a huge difference in people's lives and that is a plan for universal childcare now sanders plan is pretty straightforward in his plan. The federal government would cover all costs of for childcare until Kiddos go to school Elizabeth. Warren also has a child plan. And that's a little bit more complicated instructor. Under her plan. The federal government would cover eighty percent of the subsidies for children and families with incomes below two hundred percent of the federal poverty line and fifty percent of the subsidies for children with incomes above that amount and then state and local governments would pick up the rest There would be possibly under warrants plan about six thousand dollars in user fees for some users For the Child Care Plan And under sanders there would be no out of pocket costs for for any particular user But I think what this has Breached is that for lots of Americans for lots of people certainly for my family The cost of childcare nearly rival of the money that one or both parents make and they seriously call into question the wisdom of for a lot of folks of continuing to work after they have kids. Now if you are Someone who's interested in a robust economy? You probably don't want all parents dropping out of the workforce and you don't want a huge reduction in labor supply so available childcare is pretty important and it's a matter of quality of life for families to be able to pay for childcare without struggling financially in these crucial early years for childhood development. So while it's not a big thing yet and you don't hear people talking about it as much as healthcare. I think we should keep our eyes on child care. I have a question you know. David Brooks at are really fabulous piece in the Atlantic this past week on title. The nuclear family was a I the title doesn't do it justice and I encourage everyone to read it but I thought it was really fascinating because one of the things that made me think about Liz. Is this whole concept of family. And what the American family should look like and how it's really has evolved over centuries and is continuing to evolve and so I'm wondering if part of why the Sanders proposal didn't get as much coverage is because it. This is not as much of a defining issue as perhaps people expected it would be. Because for instance I. I am child free by choice. Chosen not to have kids when I I. You know discussed that decision. I think you know publicly in a piece like years ago it was still considered kind of you know an oddity or interesting. And at this point about a third of millennials according to polls don't want children so. I'm wondering if this really is considered is a universal issue or Israeli will is perhaps more of a niche issue than than even Sanders supporters realized. You know we're going to have a huge reduction In people having children people that is if they're going to be is if there's if there's a huge increase in people who Won't have children. That's a big problem for the economy And it's a big problem for social reproduction. And a whole other host of things so it makes the having of children all the more precious and something that governments should be interested in subsidizing. Even more or immigration. Right I mean but they also could elect not to have children right so like once they get to America and become acculturated to American culture and decide that they are similar to Americans. They may take on the perspective that they to do not want children so then we're back in the same place that we were So it would seem like You know if we're going to be moving. Globally towards higher education higher incomes fewer children or no children than government should be even more tilted towards Subsidising and encouraging childbearing to avoid the problems say Japan is having with their with their aging population. We're actually at a time. I've been talking with Lisburn of the New York Times and Henry Olsen of the Washington Post listened to left right and center. You're hearing from our left right and center and we want to hear from you to Tweet us at LLC KCRW and download the free kcrw APP to listen to left right and center on demand. Support comes from MOCHA no offering free general admission and presenting with pleasure pattern and decoration. American art nineteen seventy two to nineteen eighty five. The exhibition examines the movements. Embrace of forms traditionally coded as Feminine Domestic or craft based and thought to be inferior to fine art the decorative sensibilities in our today point to an influential legacy that is ripe for consideration now on view at Moca Grand Avenue. More at Moca Dot Org Mocha art for all back again with left right and center. I'm Kelly Gough of the daily beast sitting in for Josh Barrow on the right is Henry Olsen columnist at the Washington Post on the left. Is Elizabeth Bunich columnist at the New York Times so there was just another Democratic primary debate. Only this one was special because it had not one but two billionaires in it. This debate was significant for another reason. It seemed to be universally panned congresswoman. Debbie dingle called it a disgrace and it seemed that everyone from voters to media columnists all dubbed at kind of a disaster with too much shouting and moderators. That lost control on the other hand. I know that I've spent much of this election cycle listening to people complain about how boring and useless. Some of the other debates were so the first question I have which all direct to Henry is. What makes a good debate a debate? That is actually useful to voters. And then could you rate the South Carolina debate beyond its entertainment value. Can you rate it? In terms of how useful it actually was to voters. I think it's very difficult for a debate as large as democratic rates to be useful to voters that you don't get enough back and forth or time for people to explore their differences because there's seven people on the stage or in some cases there were ten people on the stage and so it the only way to break through and get the all important for campaign purposes post-debate Media Buzz is to a scripted exchange. Where some good one liners. And I don't think that's very useful to voters at all I think a good debate. I what I would love to see them do more of Is things or good television experiences or like the CNN town halls where you have people who have time to answer questions. Time to interchange Ideas with people of an audience. I think that is useful to voters. Because you actually get to see a candidates thoughts and some depth of thought as opposed to the quick repartee and attempts to avoid the question. The moderator asks you can ask her spew out the pre-campaign talking points that Has Been focused group. Your strategist And so on that score. I would say the debates usefulness if ten is highly useful and one is not useful at all at about a three You learned very little. About what the candidates actually thing and the the person who you did learn about new. Machar keeps ceding tweeted during that debate the She seemed to be getting all the policy nerd questions. Please tell me about your rural Well if you cared about that you actually got to learn something about Amy Klobuchar. Rural Health Plan For most people same old same old and a lot of shouting and a lot of disorder was more reminiscent of a wwe match then a serious political endeavor. Well then I'm surprised. More people don't seem to enjoy it I actually have to say though to your point. I didn't know because they're fun personalities. Don't tell me I mean nobody. Everybody was the. He'll nobody on that and no one had interesting costumes. I will say though. I didn't actually see Senator Klobuchar tweet. But what's funny about you saying that? I had a conversation with a couple of people who said you know I felt like I actually learned quite a bit about Klapisch ours policy credentials and Bonafides from the debate. Liz what did what do you? What do you think makes a good and useful debate? And where did this stack up as far as useful debates? Go in your mind. Yeah I mean I think it's it's tough to have a good debate right because there are so many people still in the field And a lot of these debates are quote unquote debates. I don't really function To highlight ways in which the opponents differ from one another and to give them a chance to argue for their perspective They more just give the candidates an opportunity to sort of save their peace and for voters to hear them interrogated on issues they might be avoiding on the campaign trail so in that sense. I do think they're quite useful This one was listening. W E match and more like watching the view right of people sort of like Cadillac chattering over each other but with who played the Megan McCain character. Let me say I do like the view I it's just a it's a different experience and I think most people are going for when they watch a presidential debate So so I do think this was among the worst of the presidential debates so far precisely because it was really difficult to even discern what was going on. And and that is the value. Add of these debates Is that you can hear people But I do think it did bring one thing home. And that's the degree to which The remaining candidates are attempting to distinguish themselves from one another down at the last moment so as we come to these really important primaries like South Carolina They're trying to explain to voters who they are in the ways in which they differ from one another. I think that's especially important for folks like Kluber Char Buddha judge Who are still occupying kind of center. Lane trying to break out From that from that Center Position Front runner. I'M GONNA ask a political nerd question because I love political history. Which is it seems to me like when I was a kid that there were these breakout moments from debates that that literally became a defining part of political lexicon defining part of American culture. You know I think back to Senator Lloyd Bentsen whose from my home state of Texas saying the Dan Quayle senator. I served with Jack Kennedy. I knew Jack Kennedy. Jack Kennedy was a friend of Mine. Senator. You're no Jack. Kennedy alignment is so popular. That it actually has. It's own wikipedia. Page discovered a political line. That actually has its own with the pedia paid and then of course there was. Ronald Reagan's famous line to address concerns about his age when he said to. Walter Mondale during the nineteen eighty-four debate. I want you to know that I also I will not make agent issue on this campaign. I am not going to exploit for political purposes my opponent's youth and inexperience how we don't have moments that go that you know become defining parts of our culture from from modern day debates theories about that entry. I think part of it is. You're both debates. That you mentioned there are Are One on ones And it was Much easier to in both cases. The ones you mentioned are a contrast you know. I am ax. You are why One was humorous and one was not. It's very difficult. In a multi-stage debate a lot of these debates now are being played not to lose because you know that It's very hard to score winning line. But it's very easy to score losing line like the Rick Perry and so consequently people don't try to have that knockout line that we remember because they want to avoid the Rick Perry screw up that people remember for the wrong reasons. I usually think debates did at least in the modern era don't seem to have that much of a capacity to alter significantly but I was surprised. Joe Biden had one of the stronger debate performances. I think of this election cycle in South Carolina and apparently voters agreed because he was barely leading sanders. Before this debate and after the debate they just released a poll yesterday that show him up by about twenty points. Frankly the largest surprise actually to me was the fact that Tom stiers apparently third in South Carolina. Which I I didn't know that they had become such a force there so Liz Do you think that South Carolina will kind of cause some of the I guess the Anti Sanders voters to coalesce around Biden? Or do you anticipate that. There's going to be a long slog to Super Tuesday for any of the the the anybody but sanders undecided voters. I know you're very decided. But I mean what? What do you think coming out of? South Carolina? Libya C. Change. Yeah I I don't I don't especially expect a sea change out of South Carolina almost because I think it's been well understood for a while. Now that it was very likely to be a strong state for Biden And Biden's in focusing a lot of his efforts there so it's not going to be a big surprise At the same time you know I haven't seen the bump I would have expected For Bernie coming out of Nevada yet. And so well because I think his his competitors are hanging in there and I think that at this point a lot of the folks who are still in the race who have received quite a bit of money who are still successfully fundraising have their bases pretty locked in So I I don't see quite a lot of movement Between people who are say diehards for Biden or diehards for Warren diehards for Buddha judge? I think those bases have sort of acquired their own personalities at this point because Those candidates continue to fundraise and have said they will stay in potentially all the way to a contested convention. Yeah so I'm not sure. Do you see though like an Amy Klobuchar hanging on to I mean. How long does she hang on? I thought she had a very strong debate performance. But I'm a little baffled even that she's frankly saw race. I I mean I'm a little confused about that as well. I don't know what she thinks is going to happen. I know that once people have done fundraising they feel an obligation an obligation to their donors to stick around and not give up and they also have staffs they don't want to let go So it can be difficult tagging out So for Kluber. Char I mean at. That is a little more puzzling to me than somebody Biden who who's I think quite obviously hoping for a big comeback And I'm not sure that we'll see her all the way to Super Tuesday. I certainly doubt that. We'll see her past super Tuesday on these debate performances might be VP auditions. So a lot of that might be going on. I felt watching that state. I think that Elizabeth Warren and Amy Klobuchar of actually both run run fairly impressive campaigns but I felt particularly the last two debates that I was watching two different vice president auditions. I believed what Elizabeth Warren said. When she the private conversation about Bernie Sanders thinking a woman couldn't be elected president but it has not come up since there was a huge backlash among his supporters. For her saying so and she's not laid a finger on him but in every debate has practically verbally ripped might Bloomberg's face off which to me indicated that she was auditioning to be a very strong by the way the he contender for Bernie Sanders because ninety percent about being the attack dog and if there was ever any question that Elizabeth Warren could handle that I think she made it loud and clear that she absolutely could on the other hand hearing. Amy Amy Klobuchar talked so much about how she doesn't think capitalism is a bad thing to me signal that she's auditioning for vp for someone else. Probably a billionaire onstage So I think you're you're you're definitely in the right direction Liz. The closing question of the debate was very interesting. They asked people to talk about their misconceptions that voters have about them and to talk about words to live by. So I figured we could do a bit of a round robin here. I'll start with you Henry. What are misconceptions? Some of your readers might have about you. And what are your words to live by? My instinct is to mimic or agree with amy. Klobuchar is that A lot of people think that I'm boring more boring than I am. But I think the biggest misconception that my readers have is that I'm a trump sick when in fact I criticize trump as much as I praise trump But in the current climate people seem to want you to be one hundred percent hundred team or another in the fact that To quote one of my favorite Mottos treebeard the end From the Lord of the Rings. I'm not on anybody's side because no one is exactly on my side That doesn't sit very well with people But as far as my motto aside from Treebeard Mine is Miguel Sir as the man who fights for his ideals is alive. It's The inscription that I put inside all of my books And it's something that I've tried to live by Liz. What about you misconceptions that some of your listeners and readers may have about you and what are your words to live by? That's a really good question. I mean I sort of don't begrudge a lot of the candidates for avoiding the question because it's hard to answer Misconceptions people have about me a lot of people. Think I'm a lot bigger than I am when they hear my voice I'm not even five feet tall. I think that that is a big misconception. I get a lot Maybe a little bit on the shallower side I think a lot of people feel like I'm Sort of traditionalist Catholic. I am not. I'm a normal Catholic. I'm just an ordinary everyday Catholic. Who GOES TO CHURCH? I don't have any hot takes liturgy. I'm not upset about the pope. Generally not paying that much attention to the pope So words to live by words to live by You know I think a lot about Matthew seven twelve in everything do unto others what you would have them do unto you for this sums up the law and the prophets. Those are good ones And I have to say that this conceptions about me I think listen I are two sides of the same coin because usually when people meet me in person they say some version of Wow. You're much taller than I thought. You'd be Because nearly six feet tall. So that's the first reaction I get And my words to live by come courtesy of one of my heroes Arthur ash and they are the words on the monument in his honor at the. Us Open which are from what we get. We can make a living what we give however makes a life. I've been talking with Lisburn Nick of the New York Times and Henry Olsen of the Washington Post. We'll be back with my conversation with legal scholar. Linda Hirshman on with the Weinstein verdict means for the future of the metoo movement. You're listening to left right center. You're hearing civilized yet. Provocative opinions from all sides now. We need to know what you think. Tweet US at. L. S. C. Kcrw extreme all episodes of left right and center and our companion show all the president's lawyers at KCRW DOT com slash podcast or from the KCRW APP. Thank you for listening to this. Kcrw podcast in case. You don't know us. Kcrw is public radio in Los Angeles bringing the best of NPR to southern California. We're also known for our own brand of bold and innovative program. Evocative storytelling taste making music and audio documentaries. That are a little movies for your ears. You can join our community to support this show and others or make a one time donation just to say thank you I never at kcrw dot com slash join. Welcome back to left right and center. I'm Kelly Gough of the daily beast. Your Center sitting in for Josh Barrow on the right is Henry Olsen columnist at the Washington. Post on the left is Elizabeth Brunette columnist at the New York Times. It's been a little over two years since blockbuster. New York Times article on movie mogul Harvey Weinstein kicked off the Metoo movement actress Ashley Judd and others alleged incidents of harassment and assault this week. Weinstein was found guilty of criminal sexual act in the first degree and rape in the third degree. He was acquitted of other more serious. Charges Weinstein is not the only powerful man to face a reckoning for past behavior but his fall from grace represented a major turning point in Hollywood and American society author and legal scholar. Linda Hirshman joins me now to discuss her book reckoning the epic Battle Against Sexual Abuse and harassment. Thanks for joining me. Linda thank you for having me so Linda. Your book which is fabulous by the way is basically a definitive history of all of the major sexual harassment and abuse cases in American history. Before we dive into your book. I just wanted to start by asking. Were you surprised by the Weinstein Verdict? I was a little surprised I was because rape law is a ill fitting instrument for dealing with the kinds of behavior that he engaged in so because rape law has its origins in the idea that women were their fathers and husband's property and they had to be protected in their purity. So the idea of the kind of woman that rape law should protect is is a very very old one and I was afraid that that idea would creep in to the trial of Harvey Weinstein. And he would be acquitted. Well interesting I would have just follow up on that then because I I do. There's something interesting to me about that case for Wolfer lotteries and but You since you're chronicling a lot of the major cases one of the things. I couldn't help thinking about while I was reading. Your book is for the Civil Rights movement. There are definitive moments right that representative turning points and not just in the Courts Brown board of Education but also criminal cases The EMMETT till murder the disappearance and murder of the three civil rights workers in Mississippi Awesome Mississippi Warner Cheney exactly so I guess my question is why is it that certain cases become the defining cases of movements and others do not? Why did the Weinstein case break the damn for behavior that a lot of people knew had been going on for a long time? Why was that the case that broke the damn show? I think that there's an argument that the bill cosby conviction actually was as entitled to consideration for the landmark case so we mustn't forget the tremendous effort that the mostly black and brown complaining women made to get bring Bill Cosby to justice and that conviction came first. So I think that it's a it's often a cluster. It's often accuster. Kit Can stop the fruit really quickly because the the first time he wasn't convicted and cosby actually ended up being convicted. After the Weinstein story broke and and I do think there's a connection so that's why again so I'm curious. What do you think it was about? Specifically the Weinstein case that reignited the conversation again it was to matters. It was the Gretchen Carlson. Civil Rights Act Lawsuit Against Roger Ailes and the fact that fax news conceded so quickly. Oh interesting and then it was the Weinstein case so Carlson suit against Roger Ailes at her outing. Roger Ailes for the abuser. That he was comes a year earlier than the Than the articles in the New York Times and the New Yorker. So Weinstein's case both makes new law like Brown did but it also matters because the wrongdoer was brought to criminal account and that's the most serious that's you know that's different from Brown v Board which was a civil case. It was kind of interesting so the idea of a powerful man actually having to do time potentially behind bars as to having the right attack. And that's what everybody is saying about Weinstein but what I want to add from the work I did. On the reckoning book is that it also represents an application of the law of rape to women who behaved like Normal Twentieth and twenty first century. Women they were ambitious. They wanted to protect their careers. They were trying to make it in a very toxic work environment. They were not. Somebody's Princess Starter. Locked up in a tower. Who was violated by you know US Criminal Stranger? This is a the fact that the New York rape law was applied to protect them is a change in the law. One of the things to that point that I I thought you made in your book which to be quite honest. I hadn't actually thought about telling reading your book. Is this idea that part of why there is so much complexity around Enforcement of sexual assault law is not just because of misogyny but because most behaviors that are criminalized. It's clear cut that we as a society considers morally abort whipping human being that you have chained up entreating as beneath you. We society collectively of decided as morally boron sex on the other hand is something we a society theoretically considered to be pleasurable and enjoyable as you explained in your book except in certain circumstances and those circumstances have never really take into account the needs and wants And and the empowerment of women because that was never factored into the concept of sexuality in American culture and that that was a really really profound assessment. The other thing that I thought Your book did so well and I. I just have to issue this explanation for listeners. Who MAY NOT KNOW? I am black. You are white and I say that only because One of the things I found fascinating and Really powerful about your book is how much you made. A point of repeatedly giving credit to women of Color for essentially being the backbone of this movement. You cite a number of cases and situational examples in which women of Color Black Women in particular played pivotal roles in sparking social change. That benefited all women on this issue. Most people know who Anita Hill is but for our listeners. Don't now can you tell them about Michelle Vinson and her significance in the history of sexual harassment law? So Michelle. Johnson was the plaintiff in the first case of sexual harassment. That went all the way to the Supreme Court of the United States. The cases Cobb meredith versus Vincent for her and she was a an black. Women are so often the targets of this behavior. Because the men Pecan the least powerful person in their universe. So erases society. Black women are already one strike down Michelle Vinson represents this very well. She was really poor and she lived in a very poor section of Washington an in her neighborhood. The little branch bank was like an island of order and security and she aspired to work there and she got a job as a teller because she knew the supervisor who was also black of this local branch and the day he hired her took her to dinner and said that she had to have sex with him if she wanted to keep her job and like they say in the musical Oh God she needed that job and he made her life a living hell for four or five years following the vote raping her exposing himself to her having what would pass for consensual sex with her. It's a lot like story that those women told in the Weinstein trial that weird mixture of a powerful man who can control your living and you sometimes grudgingly concede that you all have sexism and sometimes it's actually raped. This is just like mayor versus Benson and finally. She couldn't stand it anymore. She quit any fire and she. She took sickly when he fired her and she sued him and that case went all the way the Supreme Court of the United States and the court ruled unanimously that the creation of a hostile work environment like the ship reviser did to Michelle Venison was violation of title seven the equal employment laws and Michelle Vincent and was the third in a line of black women plaintiffs who made the early days of sexual harassment law. I do have to talk about the other side of the aftermath. Which is there have been a number of studies published in the last year on the effects of the metoo movement and I think the positive effects are obvious right which is perpetrators finally being held accountable and some survivors getting long overdue justice. But the news isn't all good. The Journal of Organizational Dynamics found that in the wake of me to twenty seven percent of men admitted to now avoiding one on one meetings with female co workers. Twenty one percent of men said they would be reluctant to hire a woman for job that involved business travel and nineteen percent of men would be reluctant to hire an attractive woman and that actually those actually weren't the most disturbing numbers what was really troubling. Is that ten percent of women in hiring position. Said they also would be wary of hiring attractive woman. Now so it's not just men Celinda. How do you fix? The backlash is it. Training is getting more women executives. What what is the answer? If in fact those people did what they said they did. They are confessing to violating the Civil Rights Act of nineteen sixty four nineteen seventy-two on imprint. Okay there's a reason why those people tell interviewers that that's what they're doing but they will not give their names. It's a it's illegal. What they are doing is illegal. But I'm asking policy wise. How I guess the analogy I would draw is Brown. V Board of Education made it Illegal for meter. We've received a separate unequal education. It could not force white people to dinner with me and two and if I can't go to dinner with you that makes it hard for me to get a promotion at your company because you don't know me socially so there's the so. There is the the morally legally right argument. But then there's the actual day to day execution of how you change hearts and minds and I believe it's absolutely possible that there were people who were absolute racist. The law came down. They had never interacted with many black people. They started to interact with them. Any their positions evolved or they accepted that society was evolving. But a lot of that had to do with actual policy change and also it had to do with soft change right the the changing of culture the the Seeing you know black families on television meeting black people and social settings that didn't scare them to be quite blunt right so I guess I'm asking you. What is the version of that of of how you evolve men who may be misogynist or you know men? I I hear this London quite honestly men who are college student whose parents are making them wary of potential. False rape allegations. That's how these men are going out to the world so I'm asking from a policy and an an actual tangible standpoint. What is the response to help to to try to quell the show? The aftermath of Brown v Board is very harsh example. Because they didn't even offer you the equal education that you're entitled to by Constitutional Law took a generation or two generations for that to even begin to be possible so it's social changes very slow. I I think that The the next generation that will be raised in the aftermath of metoo will be better. I'm hopeful about the next generation. I'm hopeful about the organization in America coming to gather in cosmopolitan cities. So I think that women are also in again led by black women like Eva. Jubeir name right are are moving into positions of power in the content business so the more women that there are in writers rooms in director's chairs and Making movies like little women which did so well The the more that will evolve. In the natural way that you're describing. I have one last question because I will certainly get it on social media. If they don't ask. I know a lot of the backlash fears are to your point. You know overblown right because you have a lot of powerful men so they have power so they have. They should have less to be concerned about than those of us who do not but the irony of course of me being a black woman is that not only have we historically been on the receiving end of more harassment and abuse but historically the men in our families have been more likely to be falsely accused of sex crimes and to face dire consequences and then not talking a long time ago. I mean the murder of Emmett till was in the fifties but you had the central park five. You just referenced. David you've Rene. Who did the beautiful A series on them The Brian Banks case the recent sacred Heart University case Of a where to football players who are African American were falsely accused. How we work to ensure vulnerable women feel protected but so do vulnerable men. What what is the magic answer on that now? I don't know that there's a magic answer. But their interests are not so different because when the central park five or falsely accused the real rapist went free and in the months after they were falsely accused him. Before he was caught out caught he raped many other phone or poor women so women do not have an interest in men being wrongfully accused of rape because that just means that the person who actually raped them goes free what we hadden. Weinstein case for instance was not a mistaken identity like the central park five. That's a very different problem. What you had was someone that you knew was doing it. We could not get the society to call him to account. Well we'll say to and in the Sacred Heart University case in terms of showing the evolution of culture. Is that Emmett till was murdered for a false Alexander allegation. It wasn't right incorrect identification. Brian banks the accuser recanted and in the Sacred Heart University case The woman who falsely accused him. It is actually supposed to be serving a year in jail so it does show that we have evolved as a culture from lynchings to where we are now But I think the fear has not gone away particularly for the mothers sisters descendants of these communities. And that's always kind of hovering over these conversations But I do to your point. There is a very big difference between the lack of power of the central park five when they were accused and the immense power of Harvey Weinstein. And how he wielded it and I thought that your book did a really Beautiful job of kind of drawing that through line in terms of an overview of American history and sex abuse cases So I encourage everyone to read it. the book is called reckoning the epic battle against sexual abuse and harassment a Linda Hirshman. Thanks for writing this book and thanks so much for joining us today. Thank you so much for having me. We've reached that time once again for our famed left rates into rants featuring pet peeves from across the political spectrum. Liz Brunner. It's your soapbox normally. I like to reserve this time for something a little bit silly or ironic. This time I'm going to do another public health announcement please please. Please don't re tweet share on facebook. Pass along to friends anything. You're seeing about Cova. Nineteen that does not come from official sources like the Centers for Disease Control. The World Health Organization spreading panic is one of the biggest risks involved in a pandemic. It causes people to act. Irrationally and unpredictably which makes it hard for public health workers to help us do not panic and do not share anything. That's going to induce panic. Hang in there Henry Olsen. What's your aunt? My rant is is personal and cultural which is I was listening to music Yesterday as I was flying in here Phoenix and I was listening to a song from the nineteen sixties. And just thinking how beautiful the singer's voice was how melodic the music was and that this was the winner of the Eurovision Song contest and thinking. Why don't we have these songs? That chart nowadays. Why does everything have to be overproduced and and loud And often risque. And they're betraying my cultural conservatism in thinking that maybe something that happened to some of the things that we're cultural norms fifty or sixty years ago. We're actually good things and maybe we should return to them for my rant. The words better late than never felt particularly apropos this week in the final days of black history month. Congress voted to make lynching historically one of the most notorious forms of terrorizing and torturing black-americans a federal crime. The bill was first introduced more than one hundred years ago. While high profile cases like the nineteen fifty five murder of fourteen year old Emmett till by a group of angry white men generated headlines most of the nearly five thousand victims of lynching did not the National Memorial for Peace and Justice in formerly known as the National Lynching Memorial opened in two thousand eighteen. And just days ago a monument was unveiled to posthumously. Honor the Groveland four black teenagers. Falsely accused of assaulting a white woman seventy years ago one of the teenagers was murdered by a posse. Four conservative congressman. Just an mosh. Thomas Massie Louie Gohmert and Ted. Yoho voted against the Federal Anti Lynching. Bill they should be ashamed of themselves. But every single other member of voted for it. In an era of hyper partisanship. Where very little seems to get done? This is something all Americans can celebrate and be proud of. That's all we have time for today. Thanks to Henry Olsen. Liz Brunette and Linda Hirshman left right and center is produced by Sarah Fay. Our technical director is J C Swat Todd. Simon composed our theme music. And I'm Kelly gone filling in for Josh Barrow. Thanks for joining us in tune in next week for more left right and center download and subscribe at kcrw Dot Com Slash. L. RC the KCRW APP. Or wherever you find podcasts. Left right and center is produced and distributed by KCRW.

Harvey Weinstein Henry Olsen vice president Bernie Sanders harassment America Linda Hirshman New York Times South Carolina Liz Kelly Gough Josh Barrow Amy Klobuchar trump rape Mike Pence Elizabeth Warren Washington Post United States Cova
COVID-19 Chapter 9: Economics

This Podcast Will Kill You

1:12:44 hr | 1 year ago

COVID-19 Chapter 9: Economics

"This is exactly right. My name is Rachel. Hey Ghimire I am lucky enough to work as the manager of Education and community engagement at the Canton Symphony Orchestra in Canton Ohio. I'm a recent graduate of the Baldwin Wallace Conservatory of music where he majored in bassoon. Performance and arts management and entrepreneurship as someone who is in their first year of professional work. I did not think that a global pandemic was going to be my biggest worry while on the job since the majority of our patron baser elderly and more at risk to cove in nineteen. We were watching the outbreak very closely over the last week of February and the first week of March when reports of cases in America were becoming far more frequent. We knew that we had to start thinking about what would happen if we closed down. We watch preparedness videos and started creating plans for working from home canceling concerts etc. We hoped that we wouldn't have to use any of these plans but unfortunately that was not the case. This is my fifth week working from home and the symphony has now canceled all of our concerts and events through the end of the season which is June twelfth. We cancelled our fundraiser and have announced. We'll be doing a shorter season next year. Working from home isn't all that bad. I've been able to connect with our community through online educational videos and more social media presence. But I've been worried worried about our musicians. Who make their living in a GIG economy with this pandemic and the shutdown of live music so many people have lost their source of income thankfully. The Canton symphony has been able to pay musicians. A portion of what they would have received for concerts cancelled. But what about the income from smaller concerts? We were going to put on what about orchestras. What about their gigs for Weddings Easter? Maybe even this coming summer. Nothing I've been worried for our students in the communities teachers seniors have had their last year taken away from them. Student's ability to learn their instruments in an ensemble setting has been taken away from them. I'm worried for the future of the symphony. How long will we be able to support this financially? A grant from the government will only last so long America's orchestras and the arts in America are suffering because of this pandemic. We are unsure how this will affect things in the long run. But there's a strong likelihood that this could break. Many organizations. Life is now planning for a future. That is uncertain. Life is now trying our best to connect with our community through rebroadcasts of concerts virtual orchestra online education content and home videos for musicians. I am trying to use this time to work on collaborations and projects. I didn't have time for before. I'm trying to stay positive. But it's hard when the future is uncertain. I know this isn't forever. I'm grateful that I work in a field that expresses the human experience and connects people. Despite political racial geographical or economic differences. Music is something all humans have in common. It's something we can share while we are separated during this pandemic. I only hope that the organizations that provide these experiences to the world will be supported through this pandemic and come out of the other side stronger than ever ready to spread the joy in connection that music provides my name is Eliah crabtree and I live and work in Seattle Washington with my girlfriend and our Menagerie of pets the industry. We both work in hospitality. I am a bartender and server at a sports bar in downtown in the financial district. I have been in this industry now for over ten years while it can be difficult. I really enjoy the fast paced nature and social interaction. I I became aware of Colvin's back in early January. We were discussing it at work and later discovered one of the first use cases was in our state it wasn't until March that things became more apocalyptic about a weakened of March more and more restaurants bars and hotels were laying off staff or deciding to close up for the month as our customers dwindled. So did our hope of getting through this winter. We had all just made it through the slowest months for sales in our industry. And we're looking forward to spring when business would inevitably start ramping up monetarily. During the winter months those who have savings from the summer are living off of that so in spring hits we are all out of hot water and can afford to live actual lives and not be ruled by work by March fifteen. When the orders came that we had to shut down. There were many restaurants that had already permanently closed. Corporate restaurants will most likely make it through this pandemic unscathed but many of the other restaurants that have made Seattle. Their home will struggle to make it through. This rent is very high and has already been pricing. Not only business put people out of the city for years adding to that the amount of food that has gone to waste or given away the cost of restocking. The walk in fridges will be nearly unaffordable. Most of us live day to day while we work our paychecks. Don't particularly go along way. As much of the money we earn is in cash. There is an executive order that landlords cannot evict during this time and utilities will not be shut off but they continued to accrue forcing those of us that cannot pay into debt. I struggled to think about how long's pandemic will continue when we slowly get back to normal. How long will some of us be out of work? How long will we be able to survive through this? I lost my health insurance so I cannot afford to go to my therapist until I get either healthcare from the state or go back to work full-time. I'm struggling with the decision of potentially getting into another line of work. But if I get a job I no longer qualify for benefits and would then have to wait longer to receive anything through my employer. I am stuck between a rock and a hard place and the only thing I can do now is wait and try to enjoy the staycationing. Make the best out of this time. I get to spend with my partner and our pets. My Name Is Jessica. I'm twenty seven years old and live in a semi rural town in New South Wales Australia. Up until a few years ago. I worked in child care before I started carrying full-time for my elderly grandparents. Both of whom have many medical conditions such as diabetes chronic obstructive pulmonary disease emphysema and heart failure prior to the pandemic. Our days were simple busy but simple morning medication breakfast than our days would consist of. Doctors appointments or errands on average. There were four to five medical or care-related appointments per week afternoons would usually consist of social activities. More errands or arrest then nights were more medications and Jarring I. I started really feeling the impacts of the pandemic in March. My grandparents were told to limit when they leave the and to self isolate due to their health conditions. They were and still are vulnerable and at risk this also meant. I had to do the same so I didn't spread the germs to them. Unfortunately we live day to day life when it comes to finances due to caring for them. I cannot commit to a job. Their appointments and medical needs. Take up a lot if not all of my time. I'm fortunate to get welfare from the government but this only goes so far especially right now during the pandemic we cannot afford to bulk. Buy Things and during the initial panic buying. It was hard to get our hands on anything. I was full of guilt. Here I am supposed to care for them but I couldn't even provide the simple things like toilet paper and bread do our finances and medical needs. It was also hard to self isolate or quarantine ourselves. It's a constant battle between protecting them from the virus and protecting them from their medical issues. There's always judgment from people. Why do I need to go out so much? Why can't I just stay at home? Why am I putting myself and loved ones at risk? I asked myself these questions too but the answer is simple. My grandparents lives depend on it. They depend on me being stuck at home as hard on my grandparents. I can see the negative effect. It has had on their physical and emotional wellbeing. They're no longer able to attend their rehabilitation and physical therapy leading to more pain and a decrease in their ability to move around emotionally. They're missing their social outings. They feel alone. They're older and technology isn't easy to understand for them. They like me are also scared. I'm terrified of the potential of my grandparents getting cove in nineteen because I know their chances of survival. If the infection was severe would be slim to none. I couldn't live with the guilt if I was the reason. They caught the virus. Even if I know that my leaving the house is in their best interest right now. It's a constant struggle and I feel like whether I leave the house or not I lose. There is no winning until there is a vaccine or some end to this pandemic ono. No no no no no no no no no no no no no no no no no no no no no no. No no no Thank you so much to everyone who took the time to send us those amazing firsthand accounts. We really appreciate it. Thank you so much. We've we've read every single one and really really enjoy reading them. Wish that we could have every single one on the podcast but thank you all so much. Yes hi I'm Aaron Welsh and I'm Aaron Almond Updike and this is this podcast will kill you. Yes we are on episode nine episode nine. That's a lot of episodes Aaron. I know in a very short amount of time a very short amount of time. This is our anatomy of a pandemic series. Where each episode? We're discussing a different aspect of the cove in nineteen pandemic. So this week is quite a bit of a deviation from our normal because we're going to try to wrap our heads around the economic impacts that we've seen so far and what we might expect to see moving forward. Yeah so Erin. We Are Disease Ecologists Epidemiologists. Are we talking about the economy? Okay good question I mean and if we are talking about it for many different reasons yeah so one of the things that we've always tried to do with this. Podcast is explore the many different ways that has impacted humanity. Right are normal episodes. Take the form of one disease that we explore through space and time right like we talk about the biology of how it makes you sick but we also spend a lot of time on the history of how this disease has moved through populations and the impacts that his had across many different facets of humanity right. And if you've listened to an episode before you know that you can't look at these diseases or these epidemics in a vacuum you have to consider other aspects because they involve people and people are very complex creatures with culture and politics and history and thought and all of these different aspects. That you that you lose a lot by just looking at it in a very directed way right and so we're kind of using this pandemic as an opportunity to say. Hey look at the myriad ways that Kobe. Nineteen is impacting life and humans and humanity. And so that's why we kind of decided to dive into the economic discussion of of this pandemic right. It's something that I think. Had this pandemic happened. In the past we would have touched upon the economic impact of it in our history. Section of a normal podcast. But it's just like we're living through this now right rather than looking back on this historically and so we do want to make sure that we're looking at all the aspects of it absolutely. Yeah so okay. So but before we dive into this aspect of Kobe. Nineteen we have a few pieces of business to cover so once again firsthand accounts we are still looking for them if you are still willing to provide them and we also want to again. Thank everyone every single person who has sent in there. I see an account. We really appreciate it. Another piece of business is alcohol free episodes so again you can find episodes with the quarantine you talk edited out under the episodes tab on our website and one last thing we have bookshop dot org affiliate page. You can find a link on our website underneath the books tab to bookshop dot org and that'll take you to our affiliate page on bookshop Dot Oregon so bookshop is once again an online bookseller that works with independent bookstores to help them sell books. And I think we have one more thing of the most important piece of business its quarantine anytime Corentin e time okay. What are we drinking this week? Quarantine number nine stands to reason. What's in this one Aaron? This one is basically the last word. So what's in the last word? It is gin looks Ardo lime juice and chartreuse yum. Yeah it's delicious actually it and there we go easy peasy. That's going to be a fun one to make the CERITA for. I don't know what I'm GONNA do. How do you substitute chartreuse? What flavor is chartreuse? It's like a million herbs it's like basically the KFC million unknown herbs and spices herbal tea herbal tea. That could be a good. We'll we'll see we'll make it work. Don't worry don't worry we'll find a we will okay. We will post the recipe for our quarantine. -I and our Non Alcoholic Placebo Rita on our website. This podcast will kill you. Dot Com and follow along Oliver Social Media to see the quarantine posts in real time. All right so this episode. We are absolutely without a doubt going further outside of our wheelhouse than we've ever gone before but like we already said we feel it's a really important topic to address in the context of this pandemic. So we're talking today about economics we've all seen the headlines about unemployment rate skyrocketing probably every single one listening knows at least one person who's out of work right now. I know I do or are themselves out of work exactly right. It's a really scary situation for a lot of people financially right now but like we said we're disease ecologists an epidemiologist. We don't know anything about economics or the economy. I don't think I could give a definition of the word economy before this interview and frankly I'm not sure I could right now after we've already had it then. I did learn a lot. We learned a ton so as usual we sought out the expertise of someone who does know what they're talking about and we were thrilled to get to speak with Martha Kimball who has extensive experience in economics and Economic Research and we will let her introduce yourself and explain how in the heck we even measure the status of the economy. Whatever that means right after this break. There are other ways to use your phone to escape from reality besides instagram and twitter. Read it like the fun puzzle game. 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They're in the process of transitioning to a one hundred percent compostable recyclable packaging and our over fifty percent of the way. They're already that's awesome. That is awesome. I am really digging the OATMEAL bowls. I gotta say like I'm so bad at making myself breakfast or at forcing myself to eat breakfast and so having those there is clutch. I now that it's finally warmer really love in the SMOOTHIES. They have a like chocolate mint. One it feels like you're getting a milk shake for breakfast but it'll go to daily harvest DOT COM and enter. Promo Code this podcast to get twenty five dollars off your first box. That's Promo Code. This podcast for twenty five dollars off your first box at Daily Harvest Dot. Com DAILY HARVEST DOT COM. My name is Martha Gamble. I'm the manager of economic research at Schmidt futures which is a philanthropic initiative started by Eric and Wendy Schmidt. My background is in economic policy and labor market data so in a previous life. I was the research director at indeed DOT COM Which I think I'm still contractually. Obligated to say is the world's number one job search website And before that I worked on the hill at the Joint Economic Committee which is Congress's sort of internal economic think tank And then worked at that council economic advisers at the White House and also at the Department of Labor Where I specialized in unemployment insurance among other things excellent. Well thank you for coming on to talk to us today. We are as we told you not experts in the economy So we're wondering if you could help. I sort of set the stage for us a bit in terms of what the economy in the US. Or if you could talk a little bit about what it looked like broadly. What did it look like? In the months leading up to this pandemic and what are some of the indicators that we use to know how the economy is doing? Yes if you look at the economy in the United States leading up to the pandemic it was in incredibly good shape. We had record low unemployment rates. Perhaps more importantly I can get into why we care about this. We had the employment population ratio among. What economists like to refer to as trying age which by which we mean age. Twenty five to fifty four. Never LET ECONOMISTS NAME ANYTHING WORKERS WISE. You know continually improving. We had really fast wage growth for low wage workers in particular which is exciting because those are the workers who most need a wage. And so what you had was an economy where workers could find. Work workers even given up on finding work. We're coming back into the labor market and the workers who most needed a raise. Were getting a raise. Wow that's good news. What was a great time to be alive? Roy? So can you talk a little bit more about these indicators? Are there some that are more important than others? Yeah so I think the thing that often. Confuses non economists. The most is the unemployment rate so economists meaning very specific thing when we say rate we mean that one. You don't have a job. I think that part is obvious but we also mean that you are actively looking for work and so that can end up being really confusing to a lot of people and it can also end up skewing the numbers a little bit particularly if people feel really discouraged by the labor market. You saw this during the great recession and so people often say that the unemployment rate is you know fake or it's not counting the right thing and that's not right. It's just counting very specific definition of unemployment. That means that sometimes people are more likely to look at the employment to population ratio. And that is exactly what it sounds like. It is the share of the population. Sixteen over because we don't really care for year olds are working with the job. Then we get into the prime age restriction and. The reason we do that is that we have an aging population. And in the same way that we're okay with four year olds. Networking Burr also K. With eight-year-olds networking. That's not really an indication of economic health and so if you restrict to the percent of the population ages twenty five to fifty four with a job that's been pretty good barometer in recent years of people coming back into the labor market and finding work. I'm going to insert a brief caveat. Here which is that. It doesn't work particularly well if you're trying to compare today to say nineteen fifty two because if it were nineteen fifty to the three of. Us probably would not be working so you had so many women. Who've come into the labor market which means that the percentage of the population with job. You would expect to have gone up so you can't do. Historical comparisons in the same way going way back with that number but if you're looking at say now versus two thousand it's of concern. That's very interesting. Yeah and so when you look at the population overall with a job. Does this mean sort of any type of employment? Even if it's part time employment or anything like that yes and this is another incredibly important indicator that we look at so there is something that the bureau of Labor Statistics calls part time for economic reasons. Which is a very fancy way of saying. You're part time but you don't want to be so there's the rate of part-time work overall but there are plenty people who work part time in that works for them and we're good with that if you WanNa work twenty hours a week and you have twenty hours rates. We are on board So part time for economic reasons is the share of the labor force and by the when I say labor force I mean people who are either employed or unemployed who are working part time but would prefer fulltime work. Okay Gotcha Gotcha okay so moving on from this beautiful image of strong economy and growth growth growth. That kind of changed right and in the past month or several months. So could you take us through a timeline of the economic impact that Cova nineteen has had so far starting with like when what were the first signs that we saw something is wrong or that this pandemic is going to have a major effect and were there certain industries that felt the impacts of the pandemic? I and Then maybe kind of bring us up to where we stand right now as of April fourteenth at three PM Eastern time. So I'm going to start off with one caveat before diving to your question. Which is that we were in this amazing place of growth growth growth and also we had just been coming back from the great recession we had been dealing with the recovery in the mid to thousands and the reason that all that is important is that there are plenty of economic indicators going into this that weren't even back to where they were in the late nineteen ninety s early two thousands which is the last time that we think of the economy is being really strong. So it's important to emphasize that the economy was doing good. But not as well as it could have been and so we lost out on all this potential when this happened just really sad. So let's let's start with the time line of what happened in late February early March. We were starting to hear some rumblings. About what these numbers? We're going to look like and the number of people who were losing their jobs who we're losing our where people weren't making reservations at Restaurants Anymore. Open table released data. That was very scary about that. In particular and the issue with labor market data is often lags. And it's incomplete so the first data that God's was in mid March about unemployment insurance claims and that spiked from where it had been which was in the low two hundreds and it had been there for a while and that was very low which is both good and bad and we can get into that later but it spiked into the high to hundreds. So still not you know. Historically at the levels say that you saw the great recession but was particularly scary about that was the speed at which it was happening right so we saw a jump of about a third in a week and the highest it ever got during the great recession of like a one week jump was fourteen percent so that was very scary. Of course the week after. That was even scarier where jumped up to multimillions and then the week after that in two more than six million in the week after that stayed at more than six million. And so what you've seen. Is this House to put it except insane. Number of people losing their jobs in an incredibly short timeframe and so it's this real whiplash we also got what is referred to as the employment situation which the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases every month. So you know if listeners. Now like they look their phone and they get a news alert that says the unemployment rate was X. percent and we added x number of jobs that the employment situation a lot of predictors hadn't expected the employment situation report to show that much because of the data was gathered. And so this is kind of technical thing but you know it says that this is the report for the month of March but of course the data's not gathered March first to March thirty first. It's gathered at a specific point in its gathered around the week of the twelfth which was a little bit before it seemed like things were really hitting the fan and so people like me thought. Oh well maybe it won't be that bad and it was bad. We lost seven hundred thousand jobs which of course compared to the multimillions that we then lost the in the next few weeks now look like a cake walk but I think it gets. This point of things were bad even before we thought they were bad. The unemployment rate jumped up quite a bit the part time for economic reasons rate that we were talking about earlier also jammed and there's a couple of things that I think. Were really scary about that report. Not just that it happened harder and faster than we were expecting. One is where the job losses worse they were almost entirely in leisure and hospitality particularly foodservice drinking places which. I think makes sense the other place that we saw a lot of job. Losses was what's in ambulatory healthcare services. I told you guys that economists should never be allowed to name anything but think about doctors offices. Dentists Offices Home Health Carries New People talked about healthcare as being a safe place going into this pandemic but of course that's not true for all types of healthcare jobs and if you're for instance of physical therapist it's really hard to do your job right now and so scary about that is that we lost seven hundred thousand jobs and that was truly just the beginning right like there was just these We're not seeing these follow on effects in you know let's say accountants who could do their work from home but their services are no longer need it. So we're that's still show starting to show up in the data the most depressing statistic in the report to me ways what s the bureau has sex less identified as what they considered to be a survey error and so they had specifically said to people if your employer has sent you home because you can't work you are designated as unemployed as but on temporary layoff and people didn't answer the question that way. There was a big spike in people identifying themselves as employed but absent from work. And it could be that. There's some percent of them who really were employed. But say we're in quarantine or something like that but the spike was big enough. That thinks that people answered the question wrong and I think that this get at this. I mean just hugely depressing psychology of this great of you have people who've been told by employers like we're furloughing you sending you home for a couple of weeks but our intention is to hire you back and workers are relying on that. But we don't actually know that employers will be able to hire people back we don't even know that some of those employable still exist and so you have this big group of people who are telling government survey people that their job is still there for them and in fact. That job may not be there for them at the end of this. So we'll see how that number of all but that was the number. That sort of I found most depressing and upsetting. Yeah and that's where we are depressing. Yeah and that kind of actually gets into the next question that we had and that is looking at the difference in impact this is having on employers versus employees in sort of the difference in impact that these changes in this sort of. I mean this global pandemic is having on small businesses versus large corporations versus the individual consumer and employee. So could you talk a little bit about those differences that we're seeing in terms of impact? Yeah I mean I think the answer is unless you're like clorox zoom. No one's doing that. Well right I mean it's just it's really hard. A huge amount of consumer spending has just been sucked out of the economy. I mean you can lookit me. I'm very lucky I still have a job. I am not spending money like I used to because I can't. I would love to go get my haircut. I would love to go out to dinner but I literally cannot spend that money. There's a group of us on twitter that it's refer affectionately referred to as ECON twitter which is basically a bunch of economists getting very nerdy about economics on twitter and someone asked this question of what our policies that you support. Now you wouldn't have supported a couple of months ago and someone somewhat sarcastically. Responded everything but it is really true right. So you've seen conservative. Economists saying get money to individuals and workers do it yesterday. Write them direct checks like this is a nightmare. You've seen more liberal. Economists saying save businesses or these workers won't have jobs get to get back to like get them money. Get them yesterday. And there's actually been pretty fair amount of among economists there's disagreement on the edges. We always love to argue but we all agree. That workers need direct support and businesses also need direct supports. This isn't something that frankly we necessarily would have expected a lot of people to play for. You know saying to a restaurant will. Why didn't you plan for a situation in which you couldn't open your doors for six to twelve to eighteen months like that's we wouldn't ever have expected them to play and so we really are in the situation where we both need to be supporting workers so that they can survive and stay home and buy groceries and also supporting businesses so that workers have a place to go back to if you're not dealing with sides of this it's kind of scary to think about what the economy could look like on the other end Yeah so one of the questions that like and I see headlines and discussions of Oh the stock market is this or the stock market is that and this is like a complete like obviously. I know nothing about this. The stock market and the economy What does it mean to the average human being I guess like to the average person in the US when the stock market increases or decreases? Does it mean anything? No I feel better all along. The stock market is not the economy about fifty percent of American households. Breath the exact number. But it's something like that don't hold stock and I think one thing that can be particularly frustrating to people is you'll often see headlines that say things like six point. Six million Americans filed for unemployment. The stock market rose by X. percent. And everyone's like what is going on in that particular case the stock market has already priced in that millions of Americans were going to file for unemployment. They already knew that was going to happen at the same time around the same time. The Fed announced a huge injection of money into the markets and so what the stock market was responding to was not the unemployment insurance claims. Which an IT already priced and already knew it was going to be millions of people who've lost their jobs but this new good information that the Federal Reserve was writing on its white horse to help that being said the the stock market is made of people. That sounds like I'm talking about soil and green but the question is do a bunch of people know what's going to happen over the next six months and if you think that no one really knows what's going to happen over the next six months you know. The stock market doesn't really know either which is part of the reason why you've seen so much volatility there in recent weeks. I've often compared the stock market's just like stock market like many of us right now is just like a cranky toddler who needs a nap and a snack and it does and it got a snack from the. Fed and it was very about that. It's just not going to settle down for a while until it's a lot clearer. What's going to happen? Yeah accents so this right now is being what what we're going right. Now is being termed as a global recession right like is that is that accurate. I mean it's it's interesting to. Economists have like very technical definitions of a recession and technically we haven't hit those definitions of a recession yet. And I think that it tells you a lot that economists are not waiting for those indicators or just like no this recession we're in. We're not questioning. This is not. This is not a drill. I'm going to anticipate a question from some of the listeners. Which is is it a recession or a depression So depressions are interesting because there isn't a specific definition of Depression A. Depression is a period of high unemployment. That goes on for a long period of time. We are at a high period of unemployment so we have already lost more jobs than the total number of people who are unemployed at the height of the great recession. Like we are like Worda were like. We are at a high level of unemployment. We are into double digit unemployment. The only question is how far we go that then raises the question of how long we stay in this. And that's a really hard question to answer. And I know people really bought answers on that and so do I. The problem is that it depends on the actions. That policymakers take and it also depends on the public health prognosis rate. So if by some miracle someone pops up tomorrow and says I have a vaccine. We've been secretly testing on humans for all this time. And we're totally good to go and manufactured billions of doses. And we're GONNA roll it out no problem then we'd come back right then it would be okay. The problem is the longer this goes on for the more you have what economists refer to as scarring people. Run out of savings. They haven't worked in a while and so their connections to help them find jobs. Go away the businesses. They had connections to May have gone out of business and so the longer this goes on for the harder it is to come back from and you know it's not comforting but that's it's really an open question at this point in no one really has be answer. It's really hard Yeah so one of the things that I've been so curious about is comparing this to the nineteen eighteen influenza pandemic which is the closest thing that I can think of in terms of like well a pandemic that people pandemic that has led to essentially like the shuttering of a lot of things like to my very basic knowledge. But we were always taught was like. Oh the roaring twenties everything was great and then there was a Great Depression. So like was there. A huge economic impact of the nineteen eighteen influenza. Was it short term and then like recovery or like what? What are some of the differences or do you think are the key differences between what we're going through now and what happened there? Yeah so there's a couple of key differences so the first answer to your question is with the usual caveats about historic economic data and we're guessing etcetera etcetera etcetera. Our best guess is that. Gdp dropped by about six percent because of the flu pandemic now the thing we have to keep in mind is that and stick with me here. Nineteen eighteen is not twenty twenty and there are some minor differences. One thing. There was a war in one thousand nine hundred and that makes a big difference on mobilization of resources and ability to come back from things the other things that our economy is really different. So if you think about nineteen eighteen and again the usual caveats about historical economic data apply. But you know we were much more heavily into manufacturing and we were much more heavily into agriculture right. So if you're working on the family farm and there's a pandemic you can still keep working on the family farm right and you may have dat. You may have issues but there's a place for you to go and work and people may not be buying as much of your produce but you have a place to live and you're making your food. Please don't ask any other questions about farming of but now we're a services economy. We are really reliant on consumer spending. That's what drives the. Us economy and consumers are spending right like we're not going and getting haircuts. Were not going out to dinner. We're not going to the gym. We're not spending money on all of these things and no matter how much money you give us at a certain point. We're just not going to have you know once we've got Renton Food and that's likes right now. There's just not that much else for us to spend money on and so any attempted. Economic forecasting is a fool's game that being said you know there was a study that came out yesterday. That was suggesting that we can get a ten percent drop in year-over-year GDP at the end of this year which is bigger than we saw the nineteen eighteen flu pandemic and I think this reflects that were in a different world than we were and it's always per a lot better off right like nineteen eighteen. They didn't know how to treat that we're we. We have a much better public. Health and healthcare system in my understanding by unit from an economic perspective were so much more interconnected. And were so reliant on spending the other people are doing and so that could really have impacts. Yeah that makes a lot of sense so I know you kind of touched on this a little bit already but does it seem and I know also that you're a US economics expert but are there any places whether it's industries or countries that seem to be at all resilient to this or is this sort of just. Everyone is equally in the toilet. At this point you know as regards to countries one of the countries that is in a really good situation right now and stick with me on. This is the United States so we just talked about how horrible things are in the US but it is so much better to be us than it is to be so many other countries and one for that is because people really want dollars right now dollars really safe place to be. That's caused various fluctuations in the financial markets. But it also means that borrowing is really really cheap for us right now so you see the federal government talking having already allocated you know trillions of dollars talking about spending even more. You haven't heard anyone or at least reputable talk about the national debt and that both because this is not the time but also because our borrowing rates are so low it really can. It doesn't matter and I want to be clear like I am not an economist who thinks that government debt doesn't matter. I am someone who thinks that long run. You have to think about how much you're borrowing and how much you're spending cetera right now. It doesn't matter like spend it give people money and so we're actually in a pretty good situation relative to a lot of countries which is also very scary within the United States. I think a lot of people have gotten a bit of a shock over the past few weeks when this first started happening there were a lot of people who really thought that this the carnage was going to be controlled in services that were provided face to face so restaurant servers Trainers employees at gyms haircutters. I keep coming back to haircutters which gives you the sense of how I feel that my hair right now that the problem is those people then stop spending and other companies are scared to invest and to the question becomes not just. Can you do your job from home? But will people pay you to do your jobs from home and that moves us away? A little bit from is your job face to face but this question of just are people going to pay for your company's Work Right now so the distinction now isn't so much. Are you a computer programmer versus a hairstylist? Because as a computer programmer you can usually work from home but are you a computer programmer. Who Works for a company whose services are still needed right now as opposed to a computer programmer who works for a company. Who services aren't needed as much right now. You know that that I think is gonna be really hard and more and more of a shock to people as time goes on and it's it's really really scary and no one knows where it's going to go next or how long this is going to go on for her and it makes it really hard for companies and people to make decisions Yeah like the the primary effects and the secondary effect and it just seems to just sort of like ripple out out to other industries the longer that it lasts just the bigger that ripple right so one of the areas specifically in the US Talking about the industries or groups of people that have been heavily. Impacted is You know there's been a lot of discussion about the GIG economy and how much the. Us relies on sort of you know. Low paid workers with no protection from their employers. So you know is is our reliance in the US on these types of workers on this type of gig economy. What are the implications that this pandemic having for that aspect so I do want to address this issue at the economy really quickly? Because I think it's something that sometimes people get a little confused about so the conversation. The GIG economy has in some ways outpaced the data about the GIG economy. We have very bad data on the GIG economy. It's not collected particularly well. The best data that we have actually suggests that it's a relatively small percent of people who do what we think of as traditional Gig work and I think one issue that you have is that for a lot of people these kinds of informal or less certain work really hidden to us before right so for instance david-weill who's a professor has talked a lot about how hotels outsourced. They're cleaning staff into their cleaning. Staff wouldn't actually work directly for the Health Hotel they would be contracted out. We don't see that right like we just see. The hotel rooms being cleaned. We do see our uber driver. We do see the post mate. Who's coming to bring us food? And so these places that work had been much more uncertain and people hadn't been able to rely on the traditional protections of work. I think part of the conversation just comes from it becoming more visible to assert us so with that caveat and people are interested in this they can. Google be less contingent workers survey on. There's a lot of data about that. Yes workers in the United States. Have a lot fewer protections workers in other countries? And if you think about the workers who are most vulnerable in almost every sense of the word right now. They are the ones with fewer protections so like grocery store workers very unlikely to have paid very low paid very exposed to this virus. I think one thing that you're seeing right now. Is People really realizing how much the day to day? Functioning of the economy is really reliant on people who are incredibly poorly paid work under really tough conditions and who. We don't necessarily treat very well but if they work walk off the job the rest of US are in love trouble. I think there is this question around. How do we as a society think about compensating? People who are doing this vary poorly paid but also right now. Very dangerous work yeah. Is that something that you think will change the future? Oh it's just so hard to predict how these things are which is like a theme of this entire conversation You know I think it's unclear. I think you've already seen a certain amount of labor activism and labor unrest among these workers and also at the same time. These workers are incredibly vulnerable. They may not have savings and more workers are becoming unemployed. Need to feed their families. And it's it's really unclear. I think where this is all headed but I think this is actually transitioning into this broader points. Which is that right now. Economic Policy Is Public. Health Policy and Public. Health policy is economic policy so people keep saying what is the number one policy that we need to save the economy right now and the response is fix the public health crisis like anything else we do is just bandaids on this until the public health crisis is done at the same time in order to fix the public health crisis you have to make sure that the economy is functioning reasonably and that people have enough money to feed themselves and their families and have a place to live you know if people lose their homes go into homeless shelters and can't feed their kids will one. They're not they're not in a place where they can't keep the corona virus from impacting them. Homeless shelters are back for that and also look. They're going to leave and try to find shelter and try to find a job and be going out in the world and circulating around. And so there's been this question around some of the economic policy actions that have been taken if like. Why are we paying people unemployment insurance right now? Then they won't look for work and this is a huge problem. This is the comments referred to his moral hazard and the thing is right now like we don't really want people looking for work. We don't want people leaving their homes. We want people to stay home and sit there and stay safe. That is incredibly important right now. And so like some of these new traditional calculations fall by the wayside. Yeah and so that kind of going to be one of our next questions are the current benefits that we have enough to keep people at home and to to sort of address this public health crisis at this point. Yeah so the changes to the unemployment insurance system are encouraging that being said one of the big issues that you have right now is that people can't get access to benefits because we do not have a very good government infrastructure in this country. It's just not something we've ever really invested in and so you look at other countries. Dave invested in their social safety nets a lot. More and with that comes a easy financial connection to their citizens that they can utilize at a time like this. We haven't done that and should so the unemployment insurance system right now is just breaking under the load. The systems weren't set up for this. They weren't even really ready for regular for session and this is not a regular recession and so you know one of the things. That's incredibly important for us to be thinking about. Moving forward is investing in the infrastructure of government. And making sure that we have that and it's functioning you know it's not just for workers you've seen the same complaints with the small business program paycheck protection program or but has also run into technical issues and also with twelve hundred dollar checks that are supposed to be sent out and so you know. We haven't invested in the day to day functioning of governments. And the moment when you find out that things are breaking is almost always the moment where you most need them not to break. Yeah so I know that you said that guessing at the future is a fool's game so let us ask you what's going to happen? No I won't ask you what's going to happen but I guess what I do want to ask is what do you think it will take to recover. And how will we know when we have recovered? Whatever whatever recovered means what does that look like. Oh that's a good question. One thing I wanNA point out is that it's not just getting back to where we were before because this was something we were talking about earlier where we were going into. This was a labor market. That still had room to grow. And there were still people who were benefiting from the really tight labor market and so you a full recovery doesn't just mean getting back to three point five percent unemployment it means continuing to get all those people who were coming back into. The labor market who were getting wage increases the full benefits of that. And it's just so frustrating we've had we've lost decade. It's so frustrating. As far as how long it's going to take. I think this could take a really long time and I think people have to really be emotionally prepared for that. Think of how long it took us to come back from the great recession and that was a different situation and that was a financial crisis cetera. But this is worse in. Ace always really. I don't know I said a lot of ways. AND RECOVERY IS NOT. GonNa be tomorrow and it's not going to be next month and it's probably not going to be this year and frankly it may not even be next year. It just takes a really long time. And we'll have to keep in mind that there are people for whom the impacts of this are gonNA stretch for years We know that graduating into a tough economic situation impacts your earnings for a really long time We know that losing your job impacts your earnings for a really long time and so we have to keep in mind that for a lot of people. It's not like Oh always find another job in six months in. It'll be okay. Let's just not the way it works. And so we as a society have to be prepared for that are there. Are you seeing any innovative solutions? That people are proposing or starting to implement in terms of like social safety net. Like you were saying to help alleviate this current crisis but also to try and put things in place to prevent something like this from happening again. We need a silver lining to end twenty new communist anywhere. I think on the federal government side. If feels like it's been so slow but they've actually moved incredibly quickly like this is it is unprecedented the speed at which the which this happened in his unprecedented the speed with which Congress acted. You've also seen the Federal Reserve taking unprecedented actions to shore up the economy. And so you know. So far policymakers have actually doing okay. I like to be clear if I were in charge. Are there things that I would have done differently? Yes absolutely I would. Have you know we need more money for all of these programs we need more money yesterday? Unemployment insurance infrastructure to work. Better all of these things but the economic response has not been backed. We just need more of it. So that's myself reminding silver lining among the silver as it gets what color you'd call that Opel less than maybe yeah shimmering and then he capacity like an oil slick though so dear. Oh yeah well well so looking forward again. What are some positive changes? You hope to see. Come out of this. Maybe whether that's policy or just in terms of how people think about the economy or how interconnected people are finally realizing all of these different aspects. Are What are some of the positive changes you hope will come out of this? We'll really start investing in our unemployment insurance system. This is something that a group of us have been screaming about for years and no one ever pays attention to you. I when it's not a recession because it's not a recession but it's incredibly important. It's a thing that people assume we'll be there for them when they lose their job. It often isn't and I'm hoping people really take a good look at it and try to figure out a way to make the system work better both from a design perspective and also from a tech infrastructure perspective for people moving forward. I also think it's helpful that you've seen policy makers move at least by standards relatively quickly to get people the money that they need. Should WE BE? We'd be moving faster. Yes absolutely and I don't want anyone to think that I don't think that but I'm hopeful that when the next recession comes around will remember that one of the most efficient ways to help people who have lost. Their jobs are in financial stress to give the money. Which isn't that complicated. But sometimes we make things more complicated than they need to be. Yeah this is kind of a pardon this silly question. But where's the money coming from? This is a good question here after noobs. I don't get it yeah borrowing. We're borrowing a lot of money but we're borrowing it at such cheap amounts of money like we are borrowing money so cheap it is practically free. Wow So we have these twelve hundred dollar checks that are going out to. Some people is twelve hundred dollars going to be enough to get people through these next few months to keep the economy afloat or whatever afloat means no and this is why one of the things that a lot of economists are most focused on right now is in whatever legislative package passes next. What you need is what we refer to as triggers for the help that we're giving to both individuals but also businesses and so what we mean by that is And if people are interested you can look up the work of Claudius Psalm as a gem. She's an amazing economist. But you know she's on all of this work about how we think about using the unemployment rate to trigger on and off different programs and this is already something we have a little bit in the Unemployment Insurance Program. But you know this is going to be too stressful. And it's not gonNA work well if every month or two. Congress has to come back and go like well where are we? How do we feel about this? Where do we think we're going like? It's a lot easier if we say. The checks will continue until the unemployment rate has hit X. percent or the checks will continue until you know. The number of new cases is experts. Whatever we think the right set of triggers is in this situation but doing these kinds of one offs is just. It's really hard. And so putting these kinds of triggers on spore. You know this kind of relief is really important What a fantastic interview. Thank you so much Martha for talking to us and taking so much time out of Your Day. We really appreciate it. We really patient. Also that was so thrilling. My brother what my brother works in like. I don't know something financial still. Don't understand what he does but he was like very jealous that we got to interview the big deal so thank so much for taking the time to talk to us. That was great. Yes okay so what have we learned? Well number one. I've learned a lot about how we actually measure the economy because really I didn't know any of these things. I didn't know the metrics and what they meant. And so what? We have learned from this interview that prior to this outbreak the US economy was really in an upswing. We were seeing growth. Not just low unemployment numbers but actual increases in wages and that one number that. Martha mentioned the unemployment population ratio. That was improving. So basically even though we weren't fully back to you know pre two thousand eight great recession crash numbers. The economy was really looking strong and was in a period of growth before all. This happened absolutely number two. The second thing we learned is that we have lost a ton of jobs. So many many tons of draw. It's like hard to wrap your brain around it really is and it's not just in sectors that you might have expected like the service industry face to face businesses but even things like health care that you might have thought were sort of safe industries in a pandemic and because of all these job losses and of course because we're all staying at home and not going out and spending money even people who have jobs that they could in theory do at home are feeling the strain because so many companies and businesses are losing money and in some cases letting people go because of it. I'll also add that even for those of us who are at home and in theory still working and Martha didn't say this specifically but I'm almost positive that all of us are seeing massive dips in our productivity simply because of how difficult it is to focus whether that's because you have kids at home with no child care or you are ill yourself or you have loved ones who have fallen ill that you're helping care for or because I don't know the world is crashing down around us and it's kind of hard to focus on your job absolutely number three and this is a really scary one. I think we don't know how long this is going to last. And we don't know what businesses are going to survive. We don't necessarily know what it's going to look like on the other end of this thing. Basically and so while a lot of people may think or at least hope that their jobs are waiting for them. When this is all over there is so much uncertainty about literally everything right. Now that it's very possible that many people will be out of work not just during this pandemic but also after it ends and so while we can't predict exactly what the overall impact of this pandemic is going to be on our economy. It's entirely possible and some people are actually predicting that the effects are going to be much greater than we think happened as a result of the nineteen eighteen influenza pandemic which really is kind of the closest thing that we can compare our current situation to either way this is already worse than two thousand and eight which is pretty scary to think about and we don't really know how long it's going to take to recover. Oh yeah definitely get better number four. Many of the people most affected financially by this outbreak are the same people who are vulnerable in many other ways with no sick leave very poor or no health insurance or in some cases still working but in incredibly unsafe conditions right now so right now. Economic Policy is public. Health policy always argues say like hundred percent. Always the case but all economists even agree on this right now which apparently is not a thing that happens very often to get economists to agree on things so the most important thing that we have to do in the US and across the globe right now is address the public health crisis at hand and get the epidemic itself under control to try and minimize economic damage. Yeah totally number five. The US especially needs to invest in our social safety nets including our unemployment insurance program if we hope to have any chance at addressing this current crisis and preventing issues like this in the future snaps while economic impacts of this pandemic are just as global as the health impacts like we talked about in the disparities episode. Not Everywhere is going to feel this impact equally. We learned that the US is pretty good position financially to be able to borrow lots of money at low rates but our lack of government infrastructure with regards to social programs makes it difficult to actually get that money to where it needs to be basically in the hands of people who need and in countries that have stronger social programs in place. It's easier to actually mobilize and get people the help that they need at a time like this and so I think that this is like this episode was hard because it was depressing yes and seemed very scary very however. I think that one of the the silver linings even though in the interview. I don't think we any any strong silver linings by one of the things that I think we can take away from. This is that this is going to be used as a teachable moment. A massive global teachable moment public health is economic health. Yeah I have a very small silver lining. What's that I don't have to worry about the stock market or ever learn what the Dow really means? I love that part I I knew it like I felt so validated in my life. Yeah I still don't understand what the stock market does. But guess what I don't have to does it matter to me. Someone's going to write it. It'd be like actually. It'LL BE MY DAD. Actually that he'll text me as soon as this episode comes out and he'll be like let me. I thought I've explained to you Erin. Sorry Dad Oh boy yeah me ways anyways so thanks again to Martha for giving us that fantastic interview. Yeah it was really great to talk to you and we really enjoyed it we did. I was GonNa say we owe you a haircut when this is all over totally. We'll show you for a haircut. Well thank you also to blood mobile for providing the music for this episode and all of our episodes and thank you to you listeners. For sticking with us through these tough times tough times yeah hope you hope you can find a silver lining of your own. Let's go yeah. Actually that would be great. It would be great. Can you tell us what your silver linings are? Yeah we need them plea all need them we all we should do a silver linings episode. Okay that actually in the works okay. Well until next time. Wash your hands you filthy animals.

United States Seattle Economic Research twitter America Canton Symphony Orchestra Google bureau of Labor Statistics Canton Ohio Baldwin Wallace Conservatory o
Skims, Spanx, and a Shapewear Shakeup

Business Wars Daily

05:30 min | 3 months ago

Skims, Spanx, and a Shapewear Shakeup

"Business wars daily is supported by microsoft teams. Microsoft teams is helping priority. Bicycles transformed the way. They work after closing their new york city showroom. They started doing virtual visits on teams. Now people from all over the world can come into their showroom learn more at microsoft dot com slash teams our new book the art of business wars features stories and lessons from history's greatest business rivalries with powerful insights uncovered through hundreds of episodes of business wars go to wondering dot com forward slash. The art of business wars to order your copy now from wondering. I'm david brown. This is business wars daily on this wednesday april twenty eight. Let's talk about shape. Wear yes rarely seen but heavily relied upon to kind of hold everything together underneath unforgiving outfits for decades one name has been synonymous with shape where that household name is spanks and behind. It is a true rags to riches story. Sara blakely started the company in nineteen ninety eight with five thousand dollars in her bank account. Two years later after oprah named spanks her favourite product of the year sales hit ten million dollars in soon. Enough blakely was a millionaire. There's another name in shape wear however that you may have heard lately skims and that one is more like a rich is to riches story. that's because the founder of skims is reality. tv star. kim kardashian west who was already sitting on around nine hundred million dollars in net worth when she rolled out the shape where line in twenty nineteen but skims proved to be ever popular and this month crash. Ian west officially joined the billionaire club according to forbes. She says the company is valued at one point six billion dollars but if one thing could threaten the shape wear industry. It's a months-long pandemic that forced everyone inside canceling events in making sweatpants. Cool once again. And it's true that in two thousand twenty sales of shape wear dropped thirty percent but the skims kept trucking bringing in one hundred forty five million dollars in revenue last year. That's small potatoes compared to spanks which rakes in about four hundred million in a normal year but skim success is still turning the heads of investors to the tune of a recent funding round of about one hundred fifty four million dollars. Now part of the reasons skims is doing so well as the fact that it's founder happens to be famous very famous since keeping up with the kardashians debut. In two thousand seven kardashian. West is set firmly atop a multi million dollar empire of clothing makeup and even mobile phone game that landed her on the cover of forbes that name recognition those millions of instagram followers. Those are the things. Spanks is blakely who sold fax machines before launching. Her company. Just didn't have at the start. Another part of skim success seems to be. It's focused on inclusivity. According to the new york times the company offers shape where pieces in nine sizes up to five x and in a range of skin tone colours shape. We're like spanks have traditionally been about hiding the body but kardashian west says skims are designed to accentuate and celebrate a body's natural shape and we're spanks has firmly placed itself in view of the older professional set skims was poised at least initially to draw in younger customer. Who just happened to be fans of the family. Last winter kardashian west brought skims into nordstrom stores across the us in a bid to lure older customers. The average nordstrom shoppers forty-three but whether skims can take a significant bite out of spanks is market. Dominance depends on well how quickly the world starts dressing up again. It would seem though that things in that department are looking up in the last week of february. Seven of the top ten selling items on clothing retailer. Anthropology is website redresses. According to the new york times. Richard a hain chief executive of antropologist parent company urban outfitters also said quote going out close unquote were on the rise. That's good news for the shape where industry after a sluggish year and both spanks and skims or hoping to the transition out of sweatpants into dressy options is well smooth from wondering. This is business worse daily. I'm your host david brown written and produced by jessica. Your mossy edited by. Emma courtland are executive producers. Are jenny lower. Beckmann marshall created by earn on lopez. Four wondering microsoft teams is helping priority bicycles. Reinvent the way they work when the pandemic hit. The bike shop had to close their new york city showroom. They've found a way to reopen by doing virtual visits on teams. Now the team can meet with two or three times the number of customers than they could before and people from all over the world can visit their showroom learn more about their story and others at microsoft dot com slash teams.

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Brave to Launch Privacy-Focused Search Engine - DTH

Daily Tech Headlines

06:13 min | 5 months ago

Brave to Launch Privacy-Focused Search Engine - DTH

"Don't let things pass you by. Try to live for the future. Wish stronger together. This is journeys through pulmonary fibrosis sharing hot warming and courageous stories from people affected via ran lung condition. Listen for free on your favorite podcast. What does it take to end cyber-attacks. At cyber reason we can tell you exactly what it takes. It takes an army of battle-tested defenders on emission defenders who fight the foes that operate under the cover of digital darkness defenders who think move and adapt faster than cyber attackers defenders with technology and effortless automation to spot an attack forming on computers mobile devices servers and the cloud and alert. You when it matters. Most to end cyber-attacks it takes the brightest minds in global cyber intelligence working to deliver future ready protection to guard your data wherever the fight moves. Cyber reason is ready to win the battle with you and for you in the fight to end. cyberattacks we are the defenders. Join us to reverse the adversary advantage with proactive protection. Against ever-evolving threats cyber reason and cyber attacks from end points to everywhere learn more at cyberrays dot com slash daily. These are the daily tech headlines for wednesday march third. Twenty twenty one traveling. Oh the privacy. Focus browser brave and the acquisition of the open source tail. Cat search engine. Developed the clicks team with plans a brave search engine by this summer. This'll be presented with other search providers when you select default search option with brave saying. It's engine won't collect ip addresses or use personally identifiable information to improve search results. Virginia governor ralph northam signed the consumer data protection. Act into law set to take effect january. First two thousand twenty three companies with data on one hundred thousand virginia consumers or that make at least fifty percent of income on the sale of data on twenty five thousand virginians are required to let consumers received copies amend or delete personal data and opt out of using data for marketing purposes. Google has previously pledged to eliminate third party cookies part of its overall privacy sandbox initiative in a blog post the company clarified it will not build alternate identifiers to track individuals as they browse across the web but replace individual identifiers with aggregation anonymous asian on device processing and other privacy. Preserving technologies uber spun out. Its postmates ex delivery robotics division as the independent company serve robotics. The spun off company will continue its existing delivery operations in los angeles with plans to further invest in rnd and expand markets through partnerships. A federal jury in texas ordered intel to pay veal technology. Two point eighteen billion dollars for infringing on patents on chip-making technology which until plans to appeal. The pants were transferred to sl from x. p. twenty nine nineteen which inte- criticized for having no products or revenue outside of the lawsuit in an sec filing lifts said the last week of february. So it's best week of ride volume since the start of the covid nineteen pandemic. The company narrowed expected q one loss to one hundred thirty five million dollars and expects to show positive. You're for your growth in ride volume for the second. Half of march apple announced annual results hearing study in the research app finding average weekly headphone exposure for one and ten participants is higher than what the world health organization recommends twenty five percent of participants experience bringing in their ears multiple times a week and ten percent of those in the study have been diagnosed with hearing. Dj launch dj. I f a new drone model for customers that want to add a head mounted display to the flying experience as well new optional motion controller the f. cost one thousand two hundred ninety nine dollars for the drone. The second gen at pv goggles a controller and battery with the motion controller. Another one hundred ninety nine dollars with additional batteries available through the fly more bundle acting. Ceasar director brandon. Whale said it will take up to eighteen months for the. Us government to fully recover from the solar winds orion supply. Genetech whale said that there are two phases to respond to the incident. Short term mediation efforts to remove the software and eliminate points followed by strategic recovery to rebuild secure systems. The social network parlor withdrew its antitrust lawsuit against amazon which was filed after. Aws suspended service to the platform for failing to moderate content incited violence parlor reserves. The right to file the lawsuit on similar grounds epic games acquired ton of games group which includes the publisher irregular corporation as well as us. Forty two games and media. Tonic makers of fog is media. Tonic says there are no plans to make. Fog is free to play but hopes to bring features of fortnight rocket linked to the game including account systems cross. Play at squad. Versus squad moats twitter announced. It's opening it's twitter spaces audio chat rooms to android users. Previously available only on ios android users will not be able to join spaces conversations although they can't start them for now with that functionality. Arriving soon valve released lennox version of its steam link up letting us your stream games to olympics p. c. company also updated. Its remote play together feature which lets users play with an unlimited number of friends over the internet with out steam accounts limited only by available bandwidth and finally google officially removed. It's cardboard vr goggles from its online store. A product originally launched in two thousand fourteen. The move is another step in google. Shift away from phone vase. Vr having already released a cardboard open source project for developers and discontinuing daydream vr. Headsets in two thousand nineteen remember from our discussion of the tech news of the day. Subscribe to tech new show and tech new. Show dot com. You can find show notes and all these headlines. Well thanks for listening. We'll talk to you next time. And from all of us here at daily tech headlines remember have a super sparkly day.

governor ralph northam pulmonary fibrosis Ceasar director brandon Genetech whale Virginia google virginia intel world health organization sec los angeles texas apple Whale
Brave to Launch Privacy-Focused Search Engine  DTH

Daily Tech News Show

06:13 min | 5 months ago

Brave to Launch Privacy-Focused Search Engine DTH

"Don't let things pass you by. Try to live for the future. Wish stronger together. This is journeys through pulmonary fibrosis sharing hot warming and courageous stories from people affected via ran lung condition. Listen for free on your favorite podcast. What does it take to end cyber-attacks. At cyber reason we can tell you exactly what it takes. It takes an army of battle-tested defenders on emission defenders who fight the foes that operate under the cover of digital darkness defenders who think move and adapt faster than cyber attackers defenders with technology and effortless automation to spot an attack forming on computers mobile devices servers and the cloud and alert. You when it matters. Most to end cyber-attacks it takes the brightest minds in global cyber intelligence working to deliver future ready protection to guard your data wherever the fight moves. Cyber reason is ready to win the battle with you and for you in the fight to end. cyberattacks we are the defenders. Join us to reverse the adversary advantage with proactive protection. Against ever-evolving threats cyber reason and cyber attacks from end points to everywhere learn more at cyberrays dot com slash daily. These are the daily tech headlines for wednesday march third. Twenty twenty one traveling. Oh the privacy. Focus browser brave and the acquisition of the open source tale. Cat search engine developed the clicks team with plans a brave search engine by this summer. This'll be presented with other search providers when you select default search option with brave saying. It's engine won't collect ip addresses or use personally identifiable information to improve search results. Virginia governor ralph northam signed the consumer data protection. Act into law set to take effect january. First two thousand twenty three companies with data on one hundred thousand virginia consumers or that make at least fifty percent of income on the sale of data on twenty five thousand virginians are required to let consumers received copies amend or delete personal data and opt out of using data for marketing purposes. Google has previously pledged to eliminate third party cookies as part of its overall privacy sandbox initiative in a blog post the company clarified. It will not build alternate identifiers to track individuals as they browse across the web but replace individual identifiers with aggregation anonymous asian on device processing and other privacy. Preserving technologies uber spun out. Its postmates ex delivery robotics division as the independent company serve robotics. The spun off company will continue its existing delivery operations in los angeles with plans to further invest in rnd and expand markets through partnerships. A federal jury in texas ordered intel to pay via technology two point eighteen billion dollars for infringing on patents on chip-making technology which until plans to appeal. The pants were transferred to sl from x. p. twenty nine nineteen which inte- criticized for having no products or revenue outside of the lawsuit in an sec filing lifts said the last week of february. So it's best week of ride volume since the start of the covid nineteen pandemic. The company narrowed expected q one loss to one hundred thirty five million dollars and expects to show positive. You're for your growth in ride volume for the second. Half of march apple announced annual results hearing study in the research app finding average weekly headphone exposure for one and ten participants is higher than what the world health organization recommends twenty five percent of participants experience bringing in their ears multiple times a week and ten percent of those in the study have been diagnosed with hearing. Dj launch dj. I f a new drone model for customers that want to add a head mounted display to the flying experience as well new optional motion controller the f. cost one thousand two hundred ninety nine dollars for the drone. The second gen at pv goggles a controller and battery with the motion controller. Another one hundred ninety nine dollars with additional batteries available through the fly more bundle acting. Ceasar director brandon. Whale said it will take up to eighteen months for the. Us government to fully recover from the solar winds orion supply. Genetech whale said that there are two phases to respond to the incident. Short term mediation efforts to remove the software and eliminate points followed by strategic recovery to rebuild secure systems. The social network parlor withdrew its antitrust lawsuit against amazon which was filed after. Aws suspended service to the platform for failing to moderate content incited violence parlor reserves. The right to file the lawsuit on similar grounds epic games acquired ton of games group which includes the publisher irregular corporation as well as us. Forty two games and media. Tonic makers of fog is media. Tonic says there are no plans to make. Fog is free to play but hopes to bring features of fortnight rocket linked to the game including account systems cross. Play at squad. Versus squad moats twitter announced. It's opening it's twitter spaces audio chat rooms to android users. Previously available only on ios android users will not be able to join spaces conversations although they can't start them for now with that functionality. Arriving soon valve released lennox version of its steam link up letting us your stream games to olympics. Pc company also updated its remote play together feature which lets users play with an unlimited number of friends over the internet with out steam accounts limited only by available bandwidth and finally google officially removed. It's cardboard vr goggles from its online store. A product originally launched in two thousand fourteen. The move is another step in google. Shift away from phone vase. Vr having released a cardboard open source project for developers and discontinuing daydream vr. Headsets in two thousand nineteen remember from our discussion of the tech news of the day. Subscribe to take new show and tech new. Show dot com. You can find show notes and all these headlines. Well thanks for listening. We'll talk to you next time. And from all of us here at daily tech headlines remember have a super sparkly day.

governor ralph northam pulmonary fibrosis Ceasar director brandon Genetech whale Virginia google virginia intel world health organization sec los angeles texas apple Whale
Cattle Current PodcastMarch 20, 2021

Cattle Current Market Update with Wes Ishmael

07:59 min | 4 months ago

Cattle Current PodcastMarch 20, 2021

"Negotiated cal prices got underway at steady money on wednesday. Last month's winter weather likely impacted first-quarter fee. Lot marketing while wheat prices could have something to say about first-quarter placement coming up on your calendar market update with west. one out. all this is where ishmael with your cal. Current market update for wednesday night and thursday morning eighteenth. The march negotiated cash bid cal. Trade was slow on light demand in kansas and nebraska through wednesday afternoon live trade with steadying kansas at one hundred and fourteen dollars one hundred and steady to a dollar higher nebraska at one fourteen elsewhere trade ranged from limited on light demand to mostly inactive on very like command with too few transactions trent according to the agricultural marketing service last week live prices one fourteen in the southern plains in colorado and one twelve to one thirteen. The western core belt with chris prices at one eighty in nebraska. And one seventy eight to one. Eighty in western core built cattle. Fear sold near a thousand head in central stockyards weekly fit cal exchange auction though selling all from texas except one lot. Nebraska traded on a live weight basis at one hundred and fourteen dollars and fifty cents. Cattle futures mostly edged higher wednesday supported by software corn futures after the front teeth contracts as well as resurgent choice. Wholesale be fags. Perhaps there's also some early position against the monthly cattle on feed. Report comes out friday more about that report momentarily. Live cattle futures closed average of fifty two cents higher from five cents higher the back to a dollar twenty to hire in spotty bro. Fear cattle futures closed an average of thirty nine cents higher from seven cents to a dollar thirty to higher except for ten cents and forty seven cents lower in the back to contracts choice. Box be cut out value as a dollar fifty four entire wednesday afternoon at two hundred and twenty eight dollars and forty seven cents. One hundred weight select was a dollar eighteen lower at two seventeen fifty nine corn futures closed fractionally lower to two cents lower except for three cents higher and fractionally higher in the frontier contracts soybean futures closed mostly five to ten cents lower cavs and fear kelsall generally steady to hire at the weekly wednesday auctions monitored by cal kern theater steer sold forty eight dollars higher. It okay see west. In oklahoma fear. Heifers traded three to six dollars higher a day. Earlier steering heifer castle to five dollars higher except four as higher on heifers wine five hundred pounds there. Seventy four hundred twenty four head on offer across both days at hub city. Livestock auction in aberdeen. South dakota steer soul to five dollars higher at six hundred to six hundred and fifty pounds. Seven hundred to seven fifty and eight hundred fifty two thousand pounds. There are too few comparable steer sales to trend at other weight heifers. Their wine five hundred six hundred pounds mostly steady and in three to six dollars higher at six hundred one to seven hundred fifty pounds. There are thirty three hundred sixty nine hit on offer. Deers wayne. Four hundred eight hundred pounds sold steady at winter. Livestock dodge city where there are twenty seven hundred and fifty seven head steers wayne. Eight hundred nine hundred pounds sold study to two dollars. Higher africa's waiting three hundred or six hundred pounds sold steady but steady to two dollars lower at six hundred two nine hundred pounds finally steers wayne. Six fifty to seven hundred pounds sold three dollars. Higher kissed lock stock auction man. Dan north dakota steers wayne's seven hundred seven fifty sold a dollar lower feeder heifers. Wayne five hundred. Five fifty sold four dollars lower than a dollar higher at six hundred to six hundred and fifty pounds and four seven dollars higher at six hundred fifty eight hundred pounds. There are twenty one hundred and five head on offer major. Us financial is closed higher. Wednesday buoyed by reiteration from the federal reserve that it intends to maintain the holiday devastates poor interest rate according to a statement from the fomc to committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at zero to zero point two five percent and expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the committee's assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to two percent in is on track to moderately exceed two percent for some time the dow jones industrial average closed one hundred and eighty nine points higher the s and p five hundred closed eleven points higher and the nasdaq was up fifty three points act last month. Severe winter weather is likely shifted. Some feed lot marketing because of the weather disruption. There's a temporal shift of expected. Steer heifer more things out of the first quarter to be marketed. In the second quarter say analysts with usda's economic research service in the monthly livestock dairy and poultry outlook daryl peel extension livestock marketing specialist at oklahoma state. University provides some perspective on how the widespread storms effective de la performs. Steer and heifer slaughter dropped seven point one percent year over year in the middle two weeks of february before bouncing back steer carcass weights dropped sharply in february declining by twenty pounds from nine hundred. Nineteen to eight hundred ninety nine pounds in the last two weeks of the month peel says in his weekly market comments. He explains the last week of february marks. The first time. Since october of two thousand nineteen that weekly steer carcass weights were lower than the previous year heffer carcass weights dropped eight hundred fifty eight eight hundred thirty four pounds in the same period that same storm close sale barns which may have limited fiedler placements for the month on the other hand current and expected week. Prices may elevate lot placements in march as more producers with a dual purpose winter. We look to put it in the b e r s analysts. Explain the expectation that relatively high wheat prices may discourage the grazing out of small grains pastors and move more cattle feedlots. Sooner than previously expected is anticipated to shift placements from the second quarter to the first quarter as a result. They say some fed cal. Marketings are expected to shift from the fourth quarter to the third quarter. Usda's monthly feed report comes out. Friday afternoon analysts surveyed by berry and reported by the daily livestock report. Expect on average february feed lot placements to be one point. Seven percent less than a year earlier february marketings to be two point six percent less and the march first inventory to be one point five percent more debt. You're kelkar marketer date for wednesday night and thursday morning bait tnt march. This is worse ishmael. Thanks for listening

nebraska kansas cal kern agricultural marketing service southern plains wayne
Trade, Fed Chair Powell in Focus

WSJ Your Money Briefing

07:11 min | 2 years ago

Trade, Fed Chair Powell in Focus

"Are you hiring with indeed you can post a job in minutes set up screener questions than zero in on your shortlist of qualified candidates using an online dashboard get started today at indeed dot com slash podcast. That's indeed dot com slash podcast. With your money briefing. I'm Charlie Turner in New York for the Wall Street Journal stocks ended higher Friday on rising hopes that the US and China can strike a trade agreement. There was word that President Trump was looking at extending trade talks by two days past the March first deadline. The Dow Jones industrials retook twenty-six thousand rising one hundred eighty one points Friday to twenty six thousand thirty one. The NASDAQ composite gained sixty seven points in the S and P five hundred rose seventeen. Both the Dow and s and p were up more than half a percent on the week. The NASDAQ rose three quarters percent, we're joined by Jessica Menton who covers the markets for the Wall Street Journal, Jessica the major averages are now at their highest level since early November. It's been a great year for stocks following the market trough at the end of two thousand eighteen things have really taken off and this week marked the ninth street week. If you're looking at the Dow, NASDAQ in Russell two thousand of notching gains in the SNP, it's the fourth week in rose. So clearly when you're looking at that they've just really taken off and a lot of the beaten down. Areas that we saw in the fourth quarter investors have broad based have been scooping up opportunities seems too much of the rise can be tied to optimism on trade. You know, the White House has said progress was being made on reaching a trade deal to head off tariffs. As mentioned the White House was weighing extending the March first deadline on sanctions by today's. So, you know, by the time a lot of people here this podcast the deadline may have been extended exactly and looking ahead towards next week that deadline is on more. I, but we also are going to hear from fed chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday and Wednesday. So those are two big things. And in addition to that, we also are going to get the fourth quarter GDP number which was delayed because of the government shutdown. It is backward-looking. So a lot of the investors. I've spoken with said they're not going to put too much weight on it. But still when you look at the fourth quarter of that is a very big quarter. When you think of consumer spending, especially during the holidays, so I think that especially there. They're they're going to look at it. And during the revisions in the coming months for that number to looking at just we're corporate profits are because although when you look at earning season right now fourth quarter expectations have been better than a lot of investors have feared, but when you're looking at the current quarter a lot of those estimates have been downgraded. So I think that's something. They're really going to hone in on when you're looking at corporate profits, but again trade and fed are going to be really big on the calendar next week. Oh, just as an aside there. I know profit estimates have been lower. But do you think the market the way it has been, you know, stocks could still rise if the results beat these lowered estimates, it seems as if it can and there's a few really positive indicators out there in one of them is the fact that this rally isn't only led by one particular area or a group of stocks say like with the FANG stocks the past couple of years, this is very broad based. It's really being led by beaten down areas like industrials which got hit hard. A lot of due to the fact that they are exposed to China. So when we had those trade concerns, really wait on the that sector, and then also energy tech is in there, but also consumer discretionary and then financials, so it's not just one group. And I think that's a healthy indication. Are we getting ahead of ourselves on trade as of this moment there still no real details on what kind of agreement would be reached, you know, the US and China haven't resolved disagreements over things like technology. So I'm just wondering, obviously, there's hope, but I'm wondering if it's premature I asked that question to a lot of investors that I spoke with especially this week heading into that deadline, and they said that it's almost as if any news is good news for them. So even looking today, sometimes we can conflicting indications, but Trump even suggested that he might delay the deadline there, but it seems as if it's already sort of baked into the market, and when you're looking at the fed, and the fact that they've signal that they're going to be more flexible with. Policy. I think looking ahead and seeing what Jerome Powell says about the balance sheet because that was something else last year that was a little bit different than just raising rates. The fact that they were doing that. And a lot of investors said they thought that that in some ways when they were paring back that folio in essentially took some liquidity out of the market. So I think that's something. That's really big next week. One interesting thing this past week. I guess we're gonna have food companies to the list of sectors that have struggled craft Hines wrote down the value of some key brands by more than fifteen billion dollars and other food company stocks fell as well. That's stock took quite a hit today and definitely fell over twenty five percent by the close on Friday. But interesting enough, I mean, a wait a bit on when you're looking at consumer Staples. But even those defensive areas this year are still up so utilities real estate in consumer Staples. So I think it's a healthy sign. The fact that the market is being led by defensive. Areas. So they're still up, and that's good. But the fact that it's it's these other cyclical names like industrials at energy, Wall Street Journal markets reporter, Jessica Benton. Thanks, Jessica, thanks for having me, are you hiring within deed? You can post a job in minutes set up screener questions than zero in on your shortlist of qualified candidates using an online dashboard get started today at indeed dot com slash podcast. That's indeed dot com slash podcast. The last week of February is chock full of events. Plenty of economic reports. A busy earnings calendar and some high profile appearances from fed officials Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell will deliver two days of economic testimony this week in front of congressional committees. The week is dotted with speeches from several fed presidents trade discussions between the US and China are continuing ahead of a March first deadline after which the US would slap Chinese imports with new tariffs. That deadline may have been extended by the time you hear this will not only get the revised estimate of fourth quarter GDP law. Also, get the preliminary estimate which was delayed by the government shutdown. Other economic reports include housing starts new home sales. Consumer confidence factory orders construction spending and manufacturing activity. We'll get the December report on personal income and spending also delayed by the shutdown. Checking the earnings calendar. We'll hear from Home Depot. Macy's Nordstrom gap. Best buy, footwear, L brands, and Marriott international. Quarterly results as well from shake shack Papa Johns, home builder toll brothers and mobile payments company square. And that's your money briefing. I'm Charlie Turner in New York for the Wall Street Journal.

Wall Street Journal China US Jerome Powell fed President Trump Charlie Turner New York Jessica White House chairman Jessica Menton Marriott international Jessica Benton Macy Home Depot toll brothers
Clothing Sales Indicate That People are Over COVID

Mojo In The Morning

09:41 min | 5 months ago

Clothing Sales Indicate That People are Over COVID

"Hey we got a sign that i think people are starting to feel that co vade maybe beyond the tail end. And i'll tell you about that coming up here in just a little bit just a matter of seconds. I let me just tell you that later. This hour spikes going to be phone. Scamming shannon's dirty and then next hour the second date update wire. You not getting a callback. After you went on a date with someone we will find out coming up here in just a little bit so the pandemic maybe starting to to curve towards hopefully being over according to internet clothing sales a positive sign that people are starting to feel a little bit more optimistic dress sales. Actually were huge over the last Week or so dress. Sales in dressier clothe sales clothing sales were Were bigger people were were going online and buying things. We're in the past that they haven't been buying. They've been by an athlete stuff. Exactly the pants sweatshirts. Yeah that's smart. It's probably a good indicator you wouldn't think of that but people are feeling optimistic. Then maybe soon. I'll be able to actually go out in public again and hanging out with friends again nicole. I went to six restaurant saturday night and could not get in anywhere because the the capacity was doubled to fifty percent with the state's restrictions and a lot more. I think the nice weather a lot of people just feeling good and going out and it was crowded. I think what ended up happening too because at twenty five percent of the residents said that they were kind of empty and i think what happened was when people started feeling more optimistic that they could actually get a table when he went to fifty percent. But it did see seem nice to see parking. Lots that were full. People kept apologizing. We'd walk in and a hostess bam sorry. It's like an hour. Wait and i'm like don't apologize. I'm glad i'm happy to see that for you. I mean we'll just go across the street. Anthropology said that seven of the ten best selling items on its website last week and All the way through the last week of february were dresses. That's interesting and the ceo of urban outfitters said that They're starting to see a trend more going out fashion Where people are actually buying more things to go out last week in trending news. We brought this up. We really didn't discuss this the there's a big group of people that have already picked out. What is their first outfit that they're going to wear when they finally get to go out and do something fun. Event like like or go to go out to a bar like people haven't gone to bars and you know a while and just going out and just had like a night out And into they already have picked out. And i don't know if any other listeners have that picked out. I was getting text messages from fletch over the weekend. This is when you know that cova could be on its tailspin because i was getting text messages from flash which you'll appreciate this when i show you guys them and It's him making small. Talk with me okay just like hey dude what's going on. I think he was just looking for me to you. Know to tech some back. I much fletch was going on thinking. He's at home. Whatever and he goes nothing just Just hanging out right now. And then he sends me a picture of these girls okay. He said he said just hanging out at a bar with these guys just wanted to draw a line and see what's up talent base more big listeners of the show he said they they They remember listening to the show. And i was there. It was basically picking up girls. And i was like i think tobin might be on a tailspin. Fleshes out talking to hot girl. He's talking to hot girls in actually talking jogging cam. You just wanna talk to anybody. I didn't want to say they've been in their house for levy. But don't you wonder by the way i wonder. If that's the case. How how will things have changed over. The course of the last year will people become. Because i've noticed that. I felt like people have become less friendly when you're out in public like nobody talks to each other. Nobody says hi gershon store yesterday. And i actually said something to one of the people in the produce section. That was another customer. And i just i just said i said wow those look really good and she just looked at me like i was speaking another language in. She didn't understand what i was saying because was so shocked to somebody was saying something. It's like it's weird of people trying to avoid each other and stand clear of each other and so to start having those small talk. You know instances in grocery stores and stuff it. It blindsides people. They're not ready for it. They're not used to it but i was i. It's it's weird. Because i was hoping that maybe that will transfer into when we go out and about that. We'll just become like maybe we'll be so shocked that people are coming up and talking to us that will have like friendly conversations that people will become friendlier Dating the dating sites have you. Have you guys noticed that. There's more traffic on the dating sites than than ever before if you if you're on like hinge or you're on tinder They say that the sites have had an increase of more than forty five percent of people uploading their profiles of the last month. All garbage people Let's i lost my profile. Every couple myself that with with the The those sites that it might have been easier to find somebody during covid were Loan years i think conversations were easier to have like i had much more Communication with people before i decided to go some But it's still more time actually held a conversation per day or two before it went in by. It's it's bad. It's just all the lonely people that couldn't figure out how to get our stuff together for the past year. I have to tell you that. I can't believe how many people i'm going to keep it clinks. We could have kids listening right now. But i can't believe how many people have that that i know that are single have met somebody over cova and have and have been hooking up with with like like it to me. It didn't seem like a change very much. In the beginning it changed like the first four months. It kinda changed and then fall came. It didn't change my friends. Who are single lasted about three months of kobe. During the peak of march april may when it was really bad was soon as the warm weather hit last summer. They were all back to normal as a guy you know and i was. I was very conservative with cove. And everything and these guys just like. Hey and i don't want to tell. People are single how to live like you know i. I didn't know what it was like to be them to be lonely for eight years and then hit a pandemic where you can't even go out and talk to people but it was but you know what none of the people that i know got cova d- from meeting somebody and actually none of them bounced around between like three or four people. They all met one person. Like i can't believe how many people i know have met a person that they probably are going to get married to her being a long term relationship brankova. I'd like it wasn't like i think the random hookups you know we were on the radio on one person. We have three friends of ours. That met somebody during this time. And they're like so excited to finally you know introduce us to them. And i'm like really you guys just matt and you're like yeah. This is it. this is my mind. Yeah all right. I also think kind of changed dating perspectives. Because i think people who did meet somebody who let them into their personal bubble during the pandemic really smart like a lot of alone time getting to know each other. I think it changed. How serious people like. Oh i'm comfortable with you all quicker well instead of just random swiping and hooking up you said. Hey i'm i'm actually concentrate on one person what's up ari at kroger. What say that again. You cut out what. I met my boyfriend during the closer you get that which we spent a lot of time. Didn't we kroger. Why not meet somebody there for eight months to move in together and everything. How did you get him to talk to you. Because like i said i couldn't even say. Hey that looks really good at it. In the produce section or overgrowth problem for was he just a fellow customer or co worker. What was it that. What your topic. All because i really like positive. Also he made like a catch up line about popsicles. Like all exactly you or your kids. And i was like oh And then what is hanging out the popsicle section.

cova hi gershon store urban outfitters shannon fletch nicole tobin kroger matt ari
Episode 48: Sam Davis San Vicente

Racing Rundown: A Horse Racing Podcast

11:17 min | 1 year ago

Episode 48: Sam Davis San Vicente

"Are at Erie Go. I mentioned earlier the week earlier in the week on Monday. That will be back for a Thursday show geared is. We don't have much time today. So we're not going to do any of the formalities. Just get right into this. We got a couple of Derby preps on tap for the weekend. The Sam Davis at Tampa Bay downs and the Sandra Day at Santa Anita. There's no points on the line in the sand placenta but it's agreed to derby. It's a great you race for three year old so it's a race that some horse they're going to use for a prep to the Kentucky Derby so we're not gonna get into that just yet. I do also wanted to sit on a couple of other notes before we get going with those Talking about the endeavor six grade three down at odd Tampa Bay downs That will feature the return of got stormy Two time grade one winner from last year. And there's really not much to go. There's really not much to say about this race. Other than the fact that got stormy is going to probably run a really really good race in this and that aside from that. There's not really anything anyone in here. That looks like they're gonNA take a shot at an upset here Really if all goes well got stormy should win this also just hitting on the last version of Saint Saint Point. Eric both said this before. The show that This last version is Venetian harbors race. As long as she doesn't have any issues like basically the same thing that got stormy as long as there's no issues or anything then the this'll be Venetian Arbor's race so now getting into the the jury preps on the weekend we just had a late development With the Santo Sent Day Nidal the the flashy made in winter's going to be back and he will be running in the Sanford Santa against the defending too euro champion storm the corporators cup juvenile winner. So that is very interesting. This was going to be a race where we really got to see whether or not storm. The court was our his wean. In the Breeders Cup. Juvenile was a fluke or not and this just adds a whole nother layer to that are being that you know if storm the court were to be able to win this race especially against a Horse. The likes of noodle which a lot of people are very high on. I know that I have eric and I had both said that. We're Kinda cautious on calling him a super horse yet but this would be valuable valuable matchup for storm the court to go up against a horse the caliber of Nidal on the Derby trail so that that is a very interesting race to say. The least. There's also some other nice sources industries you've got you've got Ginobili and you also have fast enough and read also From Bob Baffert so he's taken two horses of this this race. I'll toss it over to Eric and let him give his thoughts on this race. Then the dog in an adult development is one. I don't think really many people expected. Especially because the staffer camp in the ownership group behind it all were indicating that he was going to be heading to Oaklawn for his next star. Bucks Bob after we know him he he says he's going to end Nominee everywhere in intermittently thinks. They're ready to run in. The sense brings meaning which would be three weeks ago on Saturday on Sunday He posted one work last Saturday. going four and he did it. Well you know a workout. Indicate he's trying to get ready for another race So you know baffler probably just kept kept his car and kept his hand close to his chest and now he's GonNa be running in your and it's A. It's a smart idea rather than chicken halfway across the country to run against a likely big group. Ogun usually is dirty. Prep he's GonNa get a small field at attractions familiar with At a distance use familiar with so. It's a really nice spot but things aren't going to be very easy for me. He's facing the two year old champion storm. The court who Obviously putting his best performance in the British Abdul No last time I am cost to see how he performs considering he is coming back from a mile and a sixteenth integrate one to a seven furlong one turn race but we do not like CNN. I needed a good thing I do think generally from the outside in Riyadh from the inside are going to Kind of practice from the court to set a quick eight so I do really question how to run back here I am intrigued by fast. And up. He's also cutting back distance after his Kawkab Derby win but if there's a major pace meltdown he'll probably becoming Coming late from off the pace But in terms of picking this race it happened to be an adult purely Having everything setting up for him they stopped I. Just he's a little. It doesn't seem to be true quite yet. I wouldn't be surprised. Fabric does scratch him Morning Erase 'cause. That's Bob Advocate. But an exciting prospect. Probably know hyped maiden winner in the last couple of months against zero chance. It'll be a it'll be a good race. Basically I would probably go the same route and in the event of a late stretch. I'd probably take storm. The court in this spot shifting gears to the other side of the country the other one of the few horses under betrayal that has run multiple races and has yet to incur. A setback in. The form of a loss in a race is independence. All who is three for three coming off of his New Year's Day win in the Jerome. He'll be running down at Tampa Bay downs in the SAM. Davis is going to be going up against it intriguing horse that ran second last start out in the REMINGTON Behind Shot Ski. Who Lost his past week in the withers? The the big buzzword obviously is going to be independence hall as we chronicle the last time he is a son of constitution and there there is the question mark of whether or not he is going to be able to have his head screwed on right in to paraphrase what. Erica to say about it and also the this will be probably the best field. He's running up against a specifically With the second choice. Aaj We'd who? A lot of people were very high on off of his second in the. Renton so it will be. It will be a lot. It will show us a lot. I should say in terms of what kind of Horse Independence Hall is whether he is a really really high caliber horse on the Derby trail. Or if he's one that is just okay so this weekend will tell us a lot about him and whether or not he will be the leader going into this week at going into this Kentucky Derby of twenty twenty you put it perfectly. They're talking about I mean this is really getting down to business. If you can win this race. Against definitely as he said the toughest group he stays to this point. you're going to establish himself as the top horse if not the second top If we're considered his law On Derby trail but if he loses his race he immediately becomes a just another part of the craft. He could still make the Derby but he's not going to be a standout top. Pick come that time. This group is tough your dimensioned. Aliyu and probably get the best status of Packwood up in his last start. But he's definitely full of promise Premier Star the six from the Horn of our barn has been really impressive. Winning news breaking his maiden winning allowances last time out both at Gulfstream And then solve Alana's and you actually mentioned him earlier this week when we were talking about it in the second to the law they come from the same barn and so as running some pretty big races I think is only going to be a separate race on dirt and he showed a lot of promise in his last one An- Q. More I think I just have to mention as possible when candidates Shop Lou from the outside the eight one. The grey stakes. I believe in a at Woodbine last fall for all weathers yet you know. I think I think this'll be the spurs star bird but He's runs on on the grass in on the all-weather tracks he's showing a lot of promise and then the five no getting over me he. He's won a Maltese detangle local. Hope he's actually. The only horse in this race is based in south Florida the entire year Or has gone at least route this point in his career and he's won his last couple of races by a lot of lakes obviously against much weaker competition. Much I know that the trainer very high on him. So that's definitely a long shot. Choice but independence hall. I'm not I really can't say I have a pick yet because I haven't been able to look at the race too much with the entries only coming out yesterday of but I'm not going to hand it to him. 'cause this is one tough group but definitely a make or break typer independence hall. It is worth mentioning that last year. Local horse while the fine did win. This Sam Davis. Oh it's not unheard of for the local horse to come in and run a big race so that there is a lot on on tap for that. I don't want to focus on this too much but I do want to ask you. How much of a concern is the the antics that he had in his last start? Do you think that that's something that continues or that? It gets corrected New Environmental. Definitely something to watch Sipping you know out so miles down to run into new place for the first time just like you did Excuse me now. Like he didn't his last year and so it'll definitely be interesting but we also saw you able to overcome it So if you can you act the same way. He didn't a little better. I don't think it'll be that much from factor but there's always the chance that gets worse so it's really just going to be a you know when we get there. If he acts up worse any did act would authentic concern all right. So that's it for this week we are going to take next week off Probably the most you'll get from us is a We'll do risen star preview over on Youtube. But I actually overran the allowance that I have on the platform that we get this out. So we're going to have to take next week off. We will be back The Week of the Saudi Cup and you can expect a arisen star preview on Youtube. So that's what we got for for next week. Aside from that and I do apologize for that. I don't didn't like that I had to overrun the allowance. But I really wanted to get that deal Romans interview out so I just Kinda bit the bullet and put it out there. So we'll see you in two weeks we're GONNA be talking about all of this stuff. The Sam Davis says Sanford Santa will know whether or not some of these horses are legit and we'll be getting into the racist for the Saudi Cup so that will be all the stuff coming forward. The last week in a February the last week of February we will have all of that stuff covered as well as talking about the first Fifty Point Preparez at some point next week. So that's it for this episode. We'll see then.

Sam Davis Derby trail Kentucky Derby Eric independence hall Derby Sanford Santa Youtube Horse Independence Hall Saudi Cup Sandra Day Erie Go Bob Baffert Derby Tampa Bay Saint Saint Point Santa Anita typer independence hall Riyadh Breeders Cup
Canadians wonder when travel will be possible as pandemic drags on

The Current

24:31 min | 2 months ago

Canadians wonder when travel will be possible as pandemic drags on

"Throughout the nineteen eighty s strange phenomenon was sweeping north america. They were in a panic and like people in a panic. They want solutions allegations of underground satanic cults torturing and terrorizing children. The thing is there were no satanic cults preying on children and nearly thirty years later the people touched by it. All are still picking up the pieces. This isn't a work of fiction. This is a work of history satanic panic available now. This is a cbc podcast. We are all hopeful. We're going to be able to get back to normal in the coming months And start traveling again But the reality is we're not there yet. We're still very much. In a third wave we still need to get more and more people vaccinated across this country and get those numbers down. however we also know that As people start to travel again perhaps this summer if everything goes well it would make sense for us to align with partners around the world on some sort of proof of vaccination or vaccine certification. Well perhaps this summer if all goes well probably thinking from your lips. Prime minister trudeau and some people are already rushing to book tickets. Jen macneil is one of them. She's on the line with us from her home. Heggers ville ontario. Good morning jen. Good morning all right. tell us what. What are you planning planning to do with your family this summer. Well we have actually been planning since christmas of nine. Twenty nine twenty twenty. I guess it is so it was supposed to be our kids christmas gift. And we've had it canceled three times and we're hoping to go to cuba and all guest. You can't even remember when you were originally came up with this idea. It was so long ago. I just feel like kovic has gone on forever. Yeah well you're not alone on that one. Is it so important. Gen free for you in the family to travel. What does it mean to you to get out of the country to to to go on a trip. Well we love going on trips with our kids on. The memories are just amazing The kids talk about them constantly. And the other thing is that. I'm so i was diagnosed with depression and anxiety when i was nineteen years old and so for about six or seven years. I've been getting out of the country during our winter months and it's really helped me to To get through those winter months because they they're very difficult to deal with without any sunshine and not being able to go outside I'm not huge on the cold so so it's really helped me personally Just to be able to get out and get some sunshine and and and just kind of forget everything. That's at home and just enjoy ourselves. But you know jen that you're faced with this sort of risk reward equation that the reward is getting that sun and it's good for your clearly. It's good for your soul. The risk though continues to be out. There i mean how. How do you balance those two sides. Well it's not easy First and foremost at the front is is my family's safety and not just my immediate family. But i'm my parents are in their mid to late seventies and i've barely seen them over covid just to be safe because i'm a special education teacher so I haven't stopped working on at the school because my kids can't work from home so The most important thing is safety. So if we're not being told that it's safe to travel or if we have to stay in hotels for extra longer or things like that Then we'll probably move vacation again for a fourth time Because that's that's the most important thing to me is is the safety of my family. So what would be the green light for you. What are you waiting until you're really feeling comfortable that the time is right to travel outside of the country. Well we're basically waiting to be told that the restrictions to travel are lifted as long as you have your vaccines. I feel as though that Both of the minister the minister of health canada and the minister of health. On -tario i. I'd like to hope that they'd like to keep their jobs and wouldn't necessarily say hey. Travel restrictions are gone. Takeda travel if it really wasn't so. I guess i'm kinda trusting them to not want to lose their jobs and have people get sick from traveling But you're you're you're still watching waiting listening for that for that green light. I'm wondering jen because you've had this on again off again trip for years. What happens if you have to cancel again. Well then we book again or maybe this time. We'll just wait until everything has has kind of settled down. The the only thing that we've noticed is we have been watching. And the trips in like say december. When i would be able to go again have skyrocketed again of the cost. The cost to that trip. Yes yes they've gone up exponentially compared to what what we're paying right now so there's just a lot of factors involved in it. It's been a process for sure. Well jen i can hear in your voice how much this means to you and your family. I really hope it comes through because so many canadians are rich. Travels we mentioned so good luck in. Here's hoping for the best. Thank you so much. Have a wonderful day. Youtube jen macneil. She's planning a trip to cuba. This august will see and and we know. The jan is far from the only canadian excited about a change of scene. Richard vanderloop has been hearing from a lot of them. He's president of the travel agency trip. Central dot ca. Going richard. good morning mark. Well well pleasure to have you here and and you heard you know from jen. She's like itching to go and yet a little reluctant obviously waiting for approval to go Is this consistent with what you're hearing from customers out there. Yeah i think it is. I think there's a there's a very small number of people that are as hopeful as jen that you know things are going to be moving. The summer i think for a lot of people now with the plane still grounded heading down south and really you know a a smaller amount than the reason was last year at this time You know a lot of people. Right now that are booking are booking for the sort of november and later i think people are making their own sort of judgement calls about you know win. It is going to be that. It's likely going to happen again. And i think part of it is that the deposits rate now are very low to make a booking with the final payment. Do you know twenty five or forty five days prior to departure where you know. The risk loss is pretty low as opposed to securing your place so see a customer like jan calling up and say look. I wanna make plans to go to cuba this summer. What advice do you give them. Well I can tell you that pre covid. We sort of went over terms and conditions. Like non-refundable you know. Changes are very difficult for practically no changes. You know people went for the lowest price so today. We're spending a lotta time. It takes three times as long because we have to go through okay. This is the scale of cancellation deposits. Here your options for A waiver to reduce the cost if you have the changes or cancel it. Here's the insurance issues right now. So there's a lot more disclosures about you know and the thing we're finding as well is that prior to all this we would make those disclosures and then we would transact in the trip would happen. Now we're sort of doing this from the beginning of the booking all the way until people come home because the conditions could change so we are not just advising people ahead of time revising them as things change even when they're in destination and have to return home because things have changed. But you and you heard you heard jen mentioning though that you know the fact. That costs are. She said skyrocketing for for bookings in the in the winter. Months is is this just reflective of this incredible pent up demand for canadians to travel contract. Demand is absolutely huge. We surveyed fifty seven hundred of our own customers and It it's significant so you have to remember that there are people that travel only once every two years once a year three times a year four times a year. None of that happened. So even even if you have twenty percent of the population that says i will not travel until this pandemic declared over The the scale of the other sort of die hard twenty percent that wanna travel now and the other sixty that are in kind of this variation of of win. Those conditions would be right for them. It's still a lot of people. yes there is. There is demand. I was reading something in the new york times yesterday. Where you know the centers for disease control. They have these travel recommendations and they put you know what are very high risks for american travelers. And what they noted is that. They're there has been a spike of bookings for places like cancun although there's been a spike in covid cases there so i mean i don't understand why why why people aren't aren't looking into that. They seem that they're going to travel. Even if there are spikes cova cases. Why is that. But i think a lot of this follows the normal distribution and i know even my own family family extended family friends whatever everybody has various opinions about this and there are just sort of this twenty percent of people out there that we travel right now if it wasn't for that fourteen day quarantine And never mind. The hotel Thing so we were rising to about five percent of normal demand in december and and it was steadily going up just creeping up a little bit until the three day. Pcr tests prior to returning to canada. Came back but the fourteen day restriction was really the big one because if you can't work at home and you don't have a certain lifestyle. It's very difficult to do. So i think the the the restrictions or keeping us sort of twenty percent on lock. And then you know my business needed no Government restriction in february the last week of february twenty twenty where it was down half of what it normally was on the last week of february. That was the market telling me that people didn't want to travel so it's a varying degree And i and i think you know this is what we're gonna see roll out depending on whether restrictions are relaxed and dance based on benchmarks or if they're stay completely in place and turn on a light switch. It's really gonna make a difference. Did tell me though i mean. We're talking about international travel. What about mystic travel. What about travelling within canada. Wh what are you hearing about that Well this is my pet peeve so you know we always think that this virus comes from somewhere else and and whether you're looking outside canada or you're looking outside the province or you're looking at people that live in northern ontario and dirty torontonians coming up. Everybody always thinks that comes from abroad. And what's amazing to me is that we haven't been putting rapid testing in place for domestic flights like all the way back to the beginning of this You know we don't wanna stop canadians mobility but it seems crazy that you have these really onerous restrictions Sort of like. We're trying to build a moat. When you know the trojan horse is already in and yet you can travel freely within canada with with no tests So i think you know if there was rapid testing it would really restore confidence as vaccines roll out and as things are moving because you know the virus comes over the border from truck deliveries and it's very difficult to stop you can delay it For sure and it makes a difference in the early stages but once it's in community spread. It seems to me that domestic flights are fair. Game as well you know. I wasn't sure we we all try to imagine. Now what the post pandemic world will look like. And and i wasn't sure if travel would be one of these things that people would want to get back on a plane but from what what you're saying is you know you're you're you're feeling very bullish about about the future of travel once once we get into this post pandemic period whenever that will be an for me. I mean we're so economically hammered like we are with with a travel agency that mostly sends people out of the country we the first impacted in the very last recover. It would have been cheaper in hindsight simply shut us down right. But we had to deal with the math or the cancellations people screaming about not getting refunds. I remember that booking and booking and so you know i'm i'm kind of philosophical about it. It's like i just wanna make sure it's done right and it happens rather than these false starts and stops because every time we have to re book people canceled people. It just more cost With no revenue so from my point of view. I think like the thing a lot of people. Think if you're in the travel industry or some hard hit industry you're against all these restrictions no it has to be over in order for this to to really recover and it's just a question of how we do it so we don't have the starts and stops the time just just quickly before. I let you go if you had an opportunity where you most excited to travel. I when the time comes. I you know what i i'm a travel chameleon So i love all kinds of travel. I think my favorite destiny shinn the good blend with just beat. Go to hawaii Getaway the beautiful weather i need. I you know that sort of does it for me but you know realistically I think sunday first of all the big thing that's going to boom. It's just people visiting friends and relatives that that is going to be the first thing. The second thing is gonna be these sun vacations that we sell a lot of because you know the resorts are pretty big. You can kind of keep separated There's no reason like there's there's a lot they can do down there even in an interim stage But you know more than anything. I really want a good party. I want like four am beer spilt on the floor of singing. That's where i miss more than anything. Yeah and. I think you'll have a lot of people joining that party. Richard i. there's a lot of pent up demand for that to listen. Keep the dream alive. And i hope your business bounces back as soon as it. Can richard great to talk to you today. Thank you so much. Vanderloop is president of trips. Central dot ca. I'm speaking to you at a moment of grave crisis i'm jeff turner and this is recall. It's a series about history not the ancient past but history. That still hot to the touch. In this first season i explore a revolutionary political movement that brought a modern democracy to the brink can find recall how to start a revolution on the cbc. Listen app or wherever you get your podcasts breaking up to do. But when it comes to your wireless carrier you should have left a while ago. you deserve. Better xfinity mobile break free from the big three get unlimited with five g included for thirty dollars a month when you get four lines. On expanding mobile prices may vary intercepted to reduce speed the twenty gigabytes per line. Well as we hear. Canadians are indeed itching to travel. But when will it really be safe ashley. Toot is an infectious disease epidemiologist at the school of public health at the university of toronto. I actually so when you know you're you're hearing it now from our from our guest there. There is this pent-up demand to travel. What do you think the chances that people are actually going to be able to travel in the near future. I think that traveling in the near future is going to happen. It's just going to be a bit strange in the sense that you know we can already see places starting to open up You know particularly. I think you're is a good example where you know. Places where vaccination has been happening You know they're they're starting to think about you know. How do you have travelers in any. What are the requirements that we need to have in place. But i think it's going to be a bit of a patchwork in the sense that you know you're really going to have to think of it. You know where you traveling to. What is the situation there. what are the requirements. But they have. It's not going to be the sort of you know. Go on a website and pick adjusted nation and go there book your ticket and go there. There's going to be that that period of time where there's a fair amount of planning there's gonna be you know some uncertainty and so you know. The the idea of sort of carefree travel. I think is going to take a fair bit longer. Will the prime minister said all canadians will have a chance to be vaccinated by september and that travel might be possible after that point. Do you think that once people start canadian. Start getting that that second dose that that give them the confidence to get on planes again. I think so. I mean i think the thing that's really important to remember that the pandemic isn't over just because you've been vaccinated and you can travel again so again you know. In in a large share of the world the situation is going to remain pretty bleak firm for longer just because we don't equity in terms of his vaccinated so again you know. I think from sort of local perspective. Yeah absolutely people are going to to feel more confident. But it's it's not it's going to be different. Beat because of that and because of the fact that you know there is gonna be huge differences in terms of your comfort level is just because you're vaccinated you. You may travel to a destination where there are still restrictions and laze where you know bars and restaurants may not be oh bencher so so it it. It's going to be a situation where you're gonna have to research where you're going and also be be prepared for the fact that you may plan to go somewhere and and everything looks great and then the situation changes throughout this tent on make is that you know. It's really hard to plan. I hear you may be a question of lowering expectations. But but tell me this is just one thing for the travel agent to be saying. Come on. let's let's get out there and get on planes. But as an epidemiologist is a part of you that thanks folks look just pump. The breaks here. Traveling is not the most important thing to do. While we're still in the midst of a global pandemic do you think. Do you think people really to to sort of temper. Their expectations about about traveling again. Yeah i mean this. Is you know on the one hand like i. I would love to travel right now but on the other hand you know because you can doesn't mean you should and and you know i think he you know i. I probably have a very different perspective. Given the fact that you know you're sort of watching what's happening in canada and what's happening in the world the new. There's there's so much going on right now and you know. I don't want to be a downer but you know the fact that you know. We're still in ontario. We're still fit in other parts of canada. We're in the midst of this pretty bad third wave and we're still dealing with you know making sure you know sort of pretty basic sort of measures that people can have in their lives to get through the pandemic in terms of things like paid sick leave in having stakes safe workplaces. You know travel seems like a bit of an extravagance having said that you know i know that. Need a break and you know looking into the future. We we absolutely need to figure out how to do this. And how to do this safely. It's really just a matter. I i think you said it's sort of tempering our expectations and and you know being okay with you know pushing this forward a little bit recognizing that you know this is going to come back your going to be able to travel again. But it's maybe not you know necessarily our our number one priority right now. What year in toronto. And and and i'm sure you've heard the premier antero doug ford. He's demanding tougher border controls. So just give me your view on that. Just how important have border restrictions being in controlling the spread of covid nineteen. Yeah i think the border controls are important and he nec that when you look at the plans that countries that are are starting to open up your travel have they all include testing even amongst vaccinated. People they're still asking people to get tested and the reason that they're doing that is because we really need to have a view of what's happening in terms of you know where where cases occurring are we seeing the emergence of variants that may be West responsive to the vaccines that we have right now and the borders are really our best view into what's happening around the world. So i think i think the borders are important not only for preventing transmission but also forgetting for surveillance so really understanding how the landscape is changing and making sure that you know if we have the emergence of of additional new variants. That that we find them quickly and the borders are are her way to do that. We you talking international travel here but what. What's your view on domestic travel. I mean borders places like nova scotia. Where i have family loved to go They've closed their borders to to to to people coming from specially ontario. What what's your view about that about. What canadians should be doing or should not be doing at this point. Yeah i think. I think we're going to continue to see those sort of bubbles in terms of you know having restrictions to try to travelers to places that have low case counts and i think that makes a lotta sense right now You know the the risk of of bringing to places that have things relatively under control is a real one and you know that's why there's been such a focus on mobility not just at the international level but also you know local. We talk a lot about that. You know you know even within a province you want. You don't want people moving from from hotspots to other parts because that that can spark outbreaks in places. That don't have it so again. You know. I think as much as everyone has has itchy feet and really weren't to to get out and explore it's important to really be mindful of you know what the current situation is and and you know if you can you know you you can still have a vacation without traveling too far from home and i think you know as long as we have these. These disparities in terms of where cases are happening and where they're not It's you know it's a bit of a sort of community minded service to to to not travel from a place where you have high rates of infection to somewhere where they don't a good point ashleigh great perspective. I like what you said about. Just because you can travel doesn't mean perhaps you should so we'll food for thought and i know we all wanna travel but i guess we just have to be patient. That's the lesson of the pandemic patients. Actually thanks so much for talking to us today. We appreciate this thank you. Actually chewed is an infectious disease. Epidemiologist and mathematical model or at the delaware school of public health at the university of toronto for more. Cbc podcasts go to cbc dot ca slash podcasts.

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