18 Episode results for "Larry Sabato"
The Final Countdown: Amy Walter & Larry Sabato
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Fellow from Washington Chuck Todd, and this is the Chuck Todd Gas. So cute music. Vinyl countdown. With less than a week to go before election president trump and former vice president Joe Biden are making closing arguments with trump holding his rallies in. Key states in an effort to juice space turnout for Biden campaign playing a mix of offense defense. So weirdly Joe Biden. Had No official campaign events plan. For today. Six days before the election. We will discuss of course, it's not just the White House that's on the line. The Senate's also grabs their enough tight races at Mitch. McConnell. Might not be the Senate majority leader in January, and then there's the house race where we find some interesting storylines if you understand the future of both Marty. So joining me now to discuss racist down the balance for the best amiable course national editor of the Cook Political. Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics Man Behind one of our favorites newsletters. Sabah's Crystal Ball Haney and Larry Welcome to the todd cast I. I I gotta I gotTa start with this Amy Walter. It's six days when we're speaking right now and I'm still just sort of Joe Biden is not in a battleground state today. Let me repeat six days before the election by not in a battleground state unless he accidentally crosses the Delaware today. and Go, drop off a piece of mail. Okay I know in is kind of remarkable. Truck when we think about all of our past election experiences, right they involve both candidates. Crisscrossing, the state the states are crisscrossing the country in a last ditch effort and we know empirically chuck that. Those. More likely than not help the candidate feel better and are they're just burning off anxious energy than actually swinging votes one way or the other right that there? Yes it's. It's great I think in in a show of a sort of a last minute a push into a state to say you know if this means we win by one thousand votes because I got to that state at the end That's great. But in this era beyond the pandemic. In this era where people are getting their news from all kinds of sources, this whole trope of gotta go into a state to get you know on the local news broadcasts for the eleven o'clock show I don't think it holds as much weight as at once dead. Now that's for sure and we're not going to get the the twenty five thousand show up in Madison for Bruce Springsteen Allah John Kerry. Look at look at this turn out you know to. Right, Larry Sabato, there's something about Joe Biden's campaign that feels like a throwback. Doesn't it. It is sort of a you know he and maybe that's one way of staying maybe not campaigning today as a way of staying on message right? Well you began this campaign that way and he's ending it this way. I always say the one st I'm absolutely sure of is vines GonNa Carry Delaware because he's been so many during the campaign but look I think it's wise I think what they've done is absolutely correct given the circumstances of this election year and first of all, there's a pandemic Biden is what seventy seven getting ready to turn seventy eight it's nothing to fool around with when you're. Older says guys pushing seventy So I understand that part of it but the most important thing is Joe. Biden can make mistakes we think through his career is that a long long long career, but he has made lots of verbal gaffes. So you know you can't get in trouble for things. You don't say that's a really important lesson in politics and Biden, his learned it over and over. So look there are Democrats who are worrying that by sending the last days in Georgia Arizona Texas you're there are because they remember Hillary Clinton. Not Going to Wisconsin Etcetera but this is a very different race very different race. Well, let's talk about. reading some tea leaves here and I'm going to start I'm going to start sort of geographically from what I know about your own, both of your own where were you guys have spent time in your lives and you know stuff? Well, so I because they're unique state. So Larry let me just start with this look we know which way Virginia's GonNa go but I guess the bit but because Virginia's an early reporting state it, there is some tea leaves to read that could tell us about the national dynamic. So give me one me one thing you'll look for in the Virginia turnout in the Virginia presidential that you think could give us a hint at what's happening national. Well, a off air we were talking about the Fifth District, which is actually where Charlottesville lives though it isn't like Charlottesville at all. It's a giant district stretching from northern Virginia the way to the North Carolina border, and it's eleven twelve point Republican district should go for trump easily that's very much in question if he carries an all, it'll be by a few. And that incredibly is a district that may turn over the turn over to the Democrats at certainly close race because the Republicans nominated somebody way to the right they tossed out an incumbent Republican congressman WHO's a moderate? So I would say look to the fifth because if you're. Sitting on pins and needles down get out. Virginia. Virginia is going varies all I. Mean it's much better than for Hillary Clinton she wasn't. Digits. Yes I do I think it goes in? Around in. So maybe it's nine maybe it's eleven but this isn't even vaguely close. Yeah. Amy I'm going to start I know you have unique. You spend some time in south. Carolina. You get to see that. you spent some time down there and I know you've had different experiences in. Pennsylvania. So let me start with those two states. What what's something to watch for in South Carolina? That might give you a hint that's also an early reporting state. It is a lot of folks I think have been looking at the first district and notably. So because that's the district that Democrats picked up in two thousand and eighteen and I, think all of us at the beginning of the twenty twenty cycle thought well, that's one of those seats that you pick up in a wave year but probably lose it in traditional D-, presidential your turn out. But the Democrat there has been running really strong campaign. He's favored to win pretty easily So I'm I'm very curious to see the margins in that district for trump and Biden because what we've been seeing and hearing is That it's not just that you know the Democratic candidates ahead in that district so that the race at the presidential level is also tied their and that's you know that I can't remember what exactly the trump number was there but it certainly was five to ten points and and that's what we're seeing all over the country truck at the at the congressional level. You know we've been talking to pollsters for awhile now on both sides that say you know whatever trump got here in twenty-six he's polling somewhere between five and ten points low were and you know can survive in some of these red states with trump getting a lower margin but. In other places like Pennsylvania, for example, you can't because it's not just the philly suburbs where Biden is running really strong. It's also a been northeastern Pennsylvania and near Harrisburg and in you know in and around where. Connor Lamb, all those kinds of candidates were successful. So that's where trump really needs. To run up the score and hope that maybe these congressional district polls are missing something for him. Larry can you identify one state or Congressional district where trump is stronger than he was four years ago? Now that that's pushing maybe maybe something in Alabama. He's I. Mean That's The reason I this is one of the ways I check myself right? which is. Forget the numbers airman. Where is he strunk? And I can't think of many examples and the reason I picked Alabama was not just out of air. I keep seeing surveys both congressional district in statewide that show him doing even better than what was twenty points I think he wanted by in two sixteen. So among hard core conservatives and where the evangelical population is large, trump is proved himself and they're going to reward him. But the problem is they don't have anything near majority the votes. So you know it's tough for trump to to make advances I think he's trying to to skim by with one or two percent and a lot of these states hoping that he can cobble together an Electoral College Jordi again acknowledging is is people ain't GonNa win the popular vote is he's GonNa lose it worse much worse than in two thousand sixteen. Why would say amy I just pulled in California Biden is leading is narrow he only had a thirty six point. Only Warren harding one by more points in California. I think forty was his win to take that Larry I thought that was a good a good good piece of Trivia for eight hundred twenty. I remember it chuck I was. But Larry think about this amy Larry Just said Virginia Tad. We're looking at thirty six bide Mike Clear seventy. Okay. It in California. I. Could could buy win the popular vote by seven or eight points, and we still see all the battleground states decided by less than three. Yes. Certainly good I mean that's the thing. Thing that. I'm trying to prepare people for the. To The ride Utah to speak close a blowout meaning week, we could take up eighty percent hundred percent. Look at Iowa Florida North Carolina Georgia. Five and get fifty two in any of them. I think he can get close to that. Sure but you can also see it being he may win all of them, but you could also see a scenario chuck where he doesn't any of those you know the North Carolina, Florida Georgia Texas Ohio, and it comes down once again to like we saw in two thousand eighteen Pennsylvania Wisconsin and Michigan Arizona turning blue by decent if not narrowing margins you know. I went back chuck and I looked at going back to nineteen eighty the the final the margin of the popular vote and then the electoral vote percentage for the winning candidate. So let's go back and look for example two, thousand, eight. So Obama wins fifty, three, forty, six. Now that is a reasonable number to think we could see in twenty twenty right largest income at Democratic victory. Since nineteen thirty to the regular. Okay. So he got three hundred, sixty, five electoral votes with that. He got sixty eight percent of the electoral college with fifty three percents by Biden. That's my realistic biden concealing yes. I I would agree and then you know you look at. Of course a ten point late, one, thousand, nine, hundred, eighty, which a lot of folks. Like to point. To compare to compare this year two, thousand, nine, hundred, eighty when a ten point victory for Reagan got him. Four hundred eighty nine electoral votes, right? So we're not we're not at that. But it's I think it's realistic to think that. Yes. Somewhere over three hundred is certainly plausible but getting into the four hundreds. Without both Texas and Georgia right. Larry. I I don't I don't think he'll reach four, hundred I think he he could easily get mid three fifties and you know just going back. I. Saw that same poll you saw. In. California plus thirty six. And my first reaction or that's goodness news for Biden, and then my second reaction was that's terrible news for might. Running up the popular vote in eat league blue states and this is true in other Places York New Jersey Illinois he's getting higher percentages than Hillary Clinton did in the places where he doesn't need the votes engine trump to win the electoral college again more easily but Mike Garcia won't win. That's It you know in a you're at I'm being slightly facetious but you get my point there. It does have a meaning down about. Yeah and that's really the question chuck when you were asking about, is there a district or part of the country where the president's doing better today than he did in two thousand sixteen I'm very curious to see if what we're seeing in the polling about trump's strength with Latino voters really does materialize, and in that case, you know some of these Central Valley districts again, he's not GonNa win them but improve on his margins there or Rio Grande valley or something like that you know like in the Texas twenty-three, not not clear that that's going to going to hold out but that's definitely one place where I would look. Let me go into the mid West and that is we see that that the president and it's really a financial reason that he's having to do this they've decided. Look. Let's see if we have to pretend, we have to find pat without. Florida. which I think says, a lot I think the month the Bloomberg money is having an impact they feel overwhelmed. So at this point there, they wanNA roll the dice. Michigan and Wisconsin do either one of the neither one of them look like they're going to move when four years ago both of them looked. Certainly looked like they were hard. They were reaches for trump, but they seem like bigger reaches now. I fear were missing something Larry What do you fear and what do you see? My fear is summarized that old acronym PTSD and I think we all feel that way and you're absolutely right. I look at Wisconsin I. Look at Michigan Look at Pennsylvania and I wonder you know in the beginning of this cycle. I thought Michigan would be the easy pickup for the Democratic nominee. Biden or somebody else. L Look like. Your look like that and Wisconsin would be tougher and. Tougher, and now it's it's starting to look like Michigan is the toughest one of the three although you could argue, Pennsylvania still the toughest. But Wisconsin, if we're to believe the surveys that are being produced and I don't believe one this morning that had plus seventeen. In. Wisconsin for by then. I, think you do ask those questions? Is there a hidden stronger rural vote that's going to produce not just larger numbers but also a larger percentage for trump getting back to our question about where he might do better than he did in two thousand sixteen. So look we're all prepared for surprises. We have to be especially after the last time, but you know at at a certain point. And keep in mind we have had more surveys and good surveys formed survey in many of these states, sometimes two and a half to one compared to twenty sixteen like Wisconsin. We have a lot more to go on. We do you know amy I wonder if the Michigan situated the reason, there's been stability there in the numbers meaning it's never feels like in the last couple of months, it's by never been able to leave bigger than six or seven. Is that James. Campaigns pretty strong down the balance in the Senate pack. The Senate Republican packs are in that state way that they're not. There isn't that kind of extra help in Wisconsin for trump there isn't that kind of extra help in Pennsylvania. I just wonder how much James Campaign has been. Does it provide almost like an artificial floor that is kept trump more competitive than maybe maybe it should be you know that's really interesting. I've been thinking about that with Iowa to right where the Biden campaign not right right I think. that. You know that the fact that Greenfield and the SEC in all the outside groups are in there helping the Democratic Senate candidate is probably helping Biden and all the money that's been pouring into the house races in Texas and the legislative races in Texas. Again, those are all going to suburban Houston Dallas. Also boosting biden bright normally the top the. Lower down on the ticket folks are desperate for the presidential candidate to come in. But in this case, there's enough money coming from the down ballot races that it's actually probably having an impact On on the presidential so I I think you're right there the other thing to think about with Pennsylvania Michigan Wisconsin, I mean, I just keep coming back to something that I've been focused on since twenty sixteen, which is. The trump margin in these states and how. Important it is to look at his vote share from two thousand sixteen and how close or how far away he is from that in two thousand twenty and what we saw in two thousand, eighteen was. The trump vote share was incredibly predictive for Republican candidates that year. So even even the Republicans who outperformed. trump in two thousand, sixteen found themselves not doing any better. Or if they were lucky three or four points, maybe better than trump did in their districts. So trump got forty, six, bega, forty six and in with Wisconsin Panya Michigan remember he carried all three of those with less than fifty percent of the vote. That's not gonNA. Be The case this time around where he can count on third party candidates siphoning enough away to be able to win with less than fifty and I also go back to you know if you look at the polling actually in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania has been incredibly stable in that you know poll after poll trump forty, four, trump forty-five, the trump. Trump forty five he's the he's number. I'm sorry. Yes. Yes. It's been Dana Radic number number. Yes. Yup and if you're at forty five percent I, mean all of us have followed politics for a long time. If you're an incumbent forty, five percent a week out from an election that is a very bad place to be now can he make up some of that and get himself to forty? Seven Forty, eight? Yeah, I don't. I. Don't disagree with that at all. It's the how do you get to fifty from forty five? That is a bigger push even if we. Say. They're all these voters maybe that we've missed. I WANNA stick in the mid West Larry Island Ohio. So, four years ago Hillary Clinton performs the way she performs both of those states both were nearly double digits in the great takeaway was she lost Texas by less than she lost Iowa right. So it was this and you hear that the assumption was well Okay Iowa and Ohio they're going the way of Missouri. And yet here we are and they're right back to where they weren't twenty twelve right back to where they were twenty eight right back to where they were twenty four. What's The outlier? Sixteen or eighteen, or now of probably sixteen I think sixteen is going to go down in history as the great exception us some might call it a fluke. We'll see what Tuesday tells us and maybe days and weeks thereafter But I think twenty sixteen will go down in history as the great exception. So, many of the normal rules were broken, which makes sense because trump breaks role that's really how he lives But this time you know he's got a four year record and things are going terribly well, you know Kobe Kobe Kobe now so I think this one's going to be more normal that doesn't mean that Biden will necessarily carry Ohio. In Iowa if I had to guess I'd say a little better in Iowa than Ohio it's my gun. Yeah. That's my gut reaction to it but in my guts been growing during your pin. I've got a better handle on this thing is pandemic you wide your gut so you can have more gut feelings. That's exactly what I don I feel like I've done my part I, my part, the pandemic, the five I wear elastic. Than Belts and I think we we've all learned that. Well. Let's talk about this year's outliers though and let me get into Senate races. So you know we're all political junkies, which probably means if you're like me. You No. Longer you're like, yeah whatever Montana Iowa North Carolina tell me more about Kansas South Carolina Alaska right like you know we always want the new thing as political junkies the new races. All right. So I love those three I'm obsessed with all three and Kansas, is my real obsession state because I think Kansas is not an outlier I think Kansas is going to be. is on its way to becoming more like Iowa in a will be more competitive. For the foreseeable future, the other two I don't know what to think but that's more. My head is at amy discuss those three and. What do you make of all three? The. Kansas. Start with Kansas. So. You know I think what we're seeing there is how different? Johnson County looks now from the rest of the state and Johnson County of course suburban Kansas City which has in the past voted. Has Been. More. Swinging they voted for Democrats. Traditionally, Swing Kansas three was traditionally the strict of Kansas right and now it is like so many suburbs in. In. And around Metro areas, it has moved decidedly decided. Against the president and so I think you're gonNA see incredible numbers for Democrats out of Johnson County. But then you got the rest of the state and I still think that's where the rural the red come through for the president wildcards are our our weather which Tonto Pika are going to act like suburban areas. That's right that I in. The, the story I've heard in Kansas is that Brownback is still. There's still more angered brownback to. And I think there is still this and if you watch the campaign ads there from the democratic. Senate candidate. There's still this sort of Midwest Nice. Let's let's try to be bipartisan Yes we are a you know. C, Conservative kind of place but we also. Don't like to to see people overreach right or an an and the the backlash not just brownback but also Kobe. Has Been Remarkable. You know it's it is one state where that tea party fervor the Trumpian Maginnis just hasn't really stuck in Kansas in a way that it has in these other red states it. This is why I feel that Larry that even if Republicans hold the Senate seat and even if. Trump wins the state say fifty, one, forty, six, which is something you're just like, wow, what's going on in Kansas that this is a shift that it is a more moderate republican state then its reputation once told us yes, I think the book what's The matter with Kansas? We'll have to be rewritten and we often get stuck in the history trap and I'm particularly vulnerable to it because I've. Done I call it been there done that disease. Yeah. Exactly can happen because it hasn't happened. The Democrats can't win a sentence because they haven't won one since Franklin Roosevelt. No they can and and obviously bullies trying to the democratic. Senate nominee is trying to repeat to Governor Kelly's campaigning since she doesn't have the same opponent though was very popular but just to broaden out a little bit think about this on election night, we used to always expect two three four big upsets really big upsets in the Senate or governor whatever, and often because they're so little tickets living we don't have those upsets the way we used to however this. Time. You've got Democrats being competitive in Senate races or an independent Slash Democrat in Alaska you've got them being competitive in Alaska in Montana in Kansas in south. Carolina. In Georgia you know Democrats only need to pull an upset maybe in one or at most two of the seats to guarantee Senate, control an absolute majority not fifty fifty. So it's worth keeping an eye on the if there is a way they're high enough above the water so they can catch it. I'M GONNA pause. There will be right back after a quick break to talk about some upset specials from Larry. You're listening to the Chuck Todd Cast. For. The, Prince. Amy In fact, Larry's getting at something and I sorta hinted at it about the you know about the top of the ticket and the Electoral College that it does feel like. Everything may end up just tipping the in one direction and so while. I. Look at the Democrats path to the majority is actually boat is actually quite difficult. At first, right at the end of the day, they have to figure out how to flip one of the following probably two of the following three, Montana, Iowa and North Carolina. The good news is there in the game and all three, but they probably two of the three in order to cement majority those easily they can lose all three and then certainly. You know they get really close in a whole bunch of red leaning states, but they don't get there or they win them all but say, maybe one right like an Alaska feels like. You know that they just need too much help to pull that off and maybe they come up to point short in Texas. Let. Are we looking at that phenomenon that more likely they probably all they all the they all either win by a point or lose by points. I mean, traditionally, that is what's happened. If you look at the Cook Report Ratings for the Senate for the last ten, fifteen years, you'll note that. The tossups don't ever break fifty fifty, the closest races breaks seventy to eighty percent one direction at the end but you're right truck you do wonder if in this moment were in with you know they incredible polarization plus record turnout. Does. This look more like two, thousand, eighteen than two, thousand, eight, crank. The closest races in red states ended up going to or maybe purplish red states end up sticking with Republicans. So to your point the North Carolina in Iowa Montana's But the Arizona Wisconsin Pennsylvania Michigan's or pretty well, Colorado's they. They stay pretty well safely into the Democratic Camp and and this is what I think we don't know is we're turning out so many people. So. I just don't know how you right and so I don't know how you account for low propensity voters all across the spectrum both from the trump demographic and from the Biden Democrat. Let's have a little fun here. Last few minutes under the radar. Campaigns or candidates that that you're sort of into, you're going to be curious to watch and if they win, you'll be curious to watch them govern Larry we start with you. I go you mentioned Alaska I would definitely go without gross just because he's very interesting. He is Alaska. They just don't vote for Democrats but it's surprisingly closed not just the Senate race but the House race and the and the presidential race even in Alaska they've never really taken to trump account. Remind me in a way even though they're not at all religious like Utah of Utah they've than Utah's never taking your trump either. So I think that's a very interesting race it's received almost no coverage because it's Alaska. Irwin, pandemic even longer I have to say I'm surprised how many members of my tribe do well in Alaska Politics It's not it's not something you would at, but at the same time. You. Know it's a very libertarian state. They don't care about religion. You know, hey, you're here you're tough enough to be here. Okay Anybody else you're watching any other state you're. Upset specials anything like that. Well You I'm sure you've all received the calls that I have over the past couple of months that Doug Jones is going to win. This thing Doug Jones is going to pull it out. Tommy reveal terrible candidate Blah Blah Blah a none of us believe it but I'm watching it because you know that's a tough position to be in the one. Democrat who's a? Really, resent. C- You know of course he'll. If he wins, he'll get I think a very nice appointment maybe in the Justice Department I, I have to tell you. And it. I don't know whether this is enough of a trend to say, but Tommy topper Ville. Reminds me a lot of Tom Osborne and a button. took out. Who are terrible political candidates they don't do the extra work. They're kind of Lazy Osborne was a lazy elected Wilkinson famously lost his race that he shouldn't have lost granted. He could blame LBJ in the in the landslide year for that one I believe it was sixty four but but and then, and then this with Tommy who has been incredibly lazy. And who doesn't live in the state I? Mean that's what's remarkable. I've even really did think in that race when they got. So I happen to know this area very well, my my in law as all are from the panhandle there and he lives on the beach in Florida and he did this little promotional video that says I love living at floor right here Florida. I'm sure he thought Oh. What am I ever running for Office ed I did think it would be one of those things that would resume and what's interesting is it doesn't it did not seem to penetrate at all what cost Com Daschle in South Dakota I thought could cost the Tommy top level right in Alabama. Didn't aren't Amy Gimme your upset specials you're under the radars, your obsessions what are you? You took one of them which is the Virginia five but from the Senate you know. He's no longer under the John James and Michigan. But he's one of these candidates where you know he is in a really strong candidate who's running in the wrong years and we've seen these you know politics is as much about timing is anything else. You could see John James had been running not in the two thousand, eighteen wave not in the twenty, twenty presidential. But in a midterm year like twenty, ten or twenty fourteen that would have been arrested that you could see him win if not easily but we feel better about his chances and then I guess I'm also just keeping an eye on. Mississippi. Thank you for bringing that up I have a curiosity about Mr. Espy's campaign myself. Yeah. I mean, look at our Senator Jessica Taylor's been talking about this for a while. Now, the fact that the Senator Cindy Hyde Smith hasn't been raising a lot of money she's not really on TV The African American. Population Mississippi is significant espionage shown that he's able to really you know run strong there and you know I. Think because we have turned out that's going up everywhere. You know you can't I do I think that He's going win no, but it's definitely one to keep an eye out make an interesting. Prediction that. Has So many caveats in it that Y- can't hold me to it. Jamie Harrison wentz in South Carolina. I think it wakes up the Mississippi Democratic Party. Do what it can be like Mississippi as a voter registration and organisation hurdle for the Democrats. It's not a persuasion hurdle right? They could become a lot more competitive if if. It is something that. If Jamie Harrison is able to be basically the first modern democratic US senator in in the south. That could and then you and you and it's followed up with warnock. In fact, warnock looks like he's you know right now. I would say you know who is most likely to be a US senator in Georgia I might put him one right now in new to right of like of of outcomes Apu's you know best position to win this thing I. Think I'd rather be worn out right now than any of the candidates in either race. What you yeah. Yeah I think that's a really really great point and South Carolina is well. Georgia, showed, US enjoying his broken rates, it energizes American electorates in Alabama. Mississippi maybe trade. that it would be just changed the south the perception that Democrats have who's of who can get elected. Quote winnable candidate. Yeah. Exactly. What does electable candidates look like it is like Doug, Jones maybe they look like Jamie Harris Yep. Exactly I mean that's where it started it. All started with the Stacey Abrams election and. Just in terms of now at the time, but certainly this conversation about. A candidate who you know an African American woman Get close in a state like Georgia, right a state that they've been. So careful the Democrats to put the you know. Jimmy Carter Lake. Southern White Democrat in in front. To. Keep going 'cause this is fun to do. I guess I should we we should stop. It would be. You. Know we could do haven't done Kentucky. Senate. We haven't done. You know but we have done Minnesota. Senate I, mean we did leave a few things on the table here but. Did I. Leave anything out turn out. I'll give you this quickly over under one, hundred, fifty, five, million, Larry over under. Under under but not much under. Amy. I would say under too. But I I'm with Larry that. You. Know. I am not saying that it's GonNa, be you know? Well hundred by the way ready to settle the bad. It's going to be difficult because here's a here's a wit I. Think how? Attempt to vote I didn't. Less than one hundred and fifty, five, million votes will count. How's that. Going to be an eye opener for many. Americans. Well, it's quite possible that well over a million ballots will be disallowed for one reason or another one million Americans who went to the trouble of trying to vote or voting thought their vote was counted and it wasn't. If we ever going to change, it might be after this election I hope. So you know what? It's an excellent point in an excellent point to end on it. It's like if we have more than a million, Americans disenfranchise it is it is about time we re re reexamined. This ridiculousness of how the rules are done. I have to tell you I didn't know a post market matter anymore I will leave it there. Larry. Sabato. Amy. Walter. Thank. You I think we did the we did the listeners. Good. Much. Appreciate you've been listening to the Chuck Todd cast from the press. Today's episode was produced by Justice Gilpin Green and Matt. Rivera John Reece's our executive producer. Our theme music is composed by media NBC News. Special coverage of election night begins Tuesday at five pm Eastern on NBC News Now that's when the first exit polls. Are ripped open under the tree and gets me depressed daily MSNBC every day at one meet the press reports on demand on peacock this week. How you can trust the polls this time. Then there's the big show every Sunday morning to thanks for listening until your clothing. Hi Everyone. It's joy Reid I'm so excited to tell you about my new MSNBC showed the readout every weeknight I'm talking with the biggest newsmakers about the most pressing issues of our time like Joe, Biden, the words, president matter, and so as President United States the first thing I'm GonNa do is stand up and talk sense and be honest with the American people level with them. Atlanta Mayor Keisha Land's bottom we need as many voices as we can have as. Possible, sounding the alarm encouraging people to wear masks and to take all precautions and to follow the science and the data Senator Kamala Harris We send folks into war wearing camouflage. So what is going on here when you said camouflage uniformed officers into a city and many more, you can listen to the read our podcast by searching for the readout. That's R. E. I D. O. UT ONE WORD wherever you're listening right now and subscribing for free. Thanks for listening.
Election 'Super Bowl' kickoff with Charlie Cook, Larry Sabato and Maria Teresa Kumar
"I. Wonder he's latest miniseries. Bunga. Bunga hosted by Comedian Whitney Cummings tells the unbelievable true story of how billionaire playboy turned politician Silvio Berlusconi hypnotized Italy for almost two decades in the nineteen ninety Silvio had had enough of the government's rules and regulations. So he decided to run for prime minister. You can't beat the law change the law, and thus his legacy would become an explosive tale of what happens when private business interests and political interests compete head to head for his entire political career Silvio spewed lies and propaganda to what was true and what was opinion was a matter of opinion. And while everyone was distracted, he used his mafia ties to blackmail government officials and rewrote the laws to protect and enrich himself until two words brought his entire empire crashing down. Bunga Bunga described to Bunga Bunga on apple podcasts or you can listen early and ad free by joining wonder plus the wondering. APP? Hello. From Greater Washington I'm Chuck Todd, and this is the chuck todd guest. We are about eight weeks away from the election and posters are polling. To our new NBC News Bears Hold Five ahead up trump I nine points Pennsylvania state rich with by demographic strangers. These days of African Americans in older whites while the two candidates are locked in a dead heat in Florida, where Biden struggling with Latinos and southport victim. An interesting divide to watch Catholics, quickly active versus inactive right now, they tend to pick winners and the active Catholic slow there. Then there are. Hispanic. Catholic. On that for both part of the faith that is growing the fastest. Later in the show be joined by Latino CEO Maria Theresa Qamar to Discuss Biden is underperforming Latinos in my own sake but excels with them in states like. Texas but I it's a march through the battlegrounds with two of my favorite election legends Charlie Cook Political Report and Larry Sabato Sabotage Crisper Ball. Mister Uga himself as well. Welcome luck. Guys this is like our simple pregame show before the season starts in some ways you know. Just we get to let a rip here. We're at that point. Charlie, I'll start with you. This is a remarkably stable race that I feel like people are trying to will to become closer. I'm not sure if it's really tightening or we're just got a whole bunch of people claiming it's type. I. Think we everybody's been talking about Democrats having pay. T. S. Dave from November of two, Thousand Sixteen I. Think for political reporters an analyst a lot have ptsd to from the shock of November two, thousand sixteen and they're they're just terrified of being wrong again. And refused to recognize or just choose to not to recognize the fundamental differences between this race in two thousand sixteen, I don't think this is this race is closing at all and reflects stability that we saw on president trump. Trump's approval ratings. I mean, he had the narrowest trading range between his peaks and valleys and that three quarters of Americans have either strongly approve or strongly disapprove him. Ninety percent of Republicans are with him five, six, eight percent of Democrats are a totally against him. So you've got a certain structure that there's just not a lot of malleability in this race, and so I, I don't think I. Don't think this race has changed at all since the first of August. Possible. We may re run the twenty, sixteen race and the only difference will be there's no third party candidates of of note, and they're going to break for Biden two to one and we'll electoral. College result that will look like twenty twelve in will say oh Look remarkable stability. I think people are just they're the they're they're. It's it's almost like a weird confirmation bias where if you want to look for. Signs of of of of change if you look hard, if you can find something to a nail everything to a hammer, everything looks like a nail and people are looking for things but when you step back and just look at the data. And when you ask yourself out K roughly. Sixty close to sixty percent of Americans disapprove of the job the president's done handling the greatest crisis. Our countries had in three quarters of the century. So why would it be shock that he's behind eight to ten points and nothing seems to move it much Larry Sabato. The academic Scott Right for years ago in some ways by staying away from polling staying away from some of the stuff going with the going with the okay. WHAT'S HIS DADDY ECONOMY? You know what political party is due for a win all those little factors. Do you see the same race Charlie's. Well. Partly. You know I'm a big fan of Albert Einstein and I know he's not usually quoted in political matters, but he believed in parallel universes and provided some of justification for it. So let's use that analogy. we have one hundred parallel universes. Right now, I would say, Biden is likely to be president to win in sixty five or so maybe seventy of the hundred but Donald trump still retains the ability to win in perhaps thirty or thirty five of them. The question is which parallel universe are we in and we know we ended up in one that was extraordinary for years ago because Hillary Clinton had about the same odds I think it was around seventy thirty on the parallel Universe Front I. Think this race Titans, it's going to tighten toward the end. We always talk about tightening sometimes it happens sometimes, it doesn't we all think of races where it never really tightened. We can also think of races where it really did tighten and sometimes slept rarely, but it does I. Think you know there are still a pieces of this election that have not fallen into place. And if we are regressing towards the mean of twenty sixteen, which we may well be. then. Let's remember trump got forty six percent now right now I think most of us believe he can't get to forty six percent, but he might be able to because of the one really smart thing they've done which has spent four years identifying the trump voters who didn't vote either weren't registered didn't show up at the polls in two thousand, sixteen, they've. Had the money in the time to do it? Biden didn't even know it was the nominee until March So you have to allow for these possibilities while saying certainly Biden is the favourite, but I'm not gonNA fall into the trap of saying he's a heavy favourite. He's the favourite. That's enough for early September. How much is the political environment? Changed since twenty. This time in two thousand, Eighteen Charlie I. I think in terms of like what direction is the wind blowing in his light moderate or heavy I think you look at sort of generic ballot tests, for example. It looks basically. You know basically the same as where it wasn't November of two, thousand, eighteen and in two thousand eighteen, you know everything revolved around the president in the part of the country that had little small town rural it was it was a referendum on the president and he lost Democrats, picked up forty seats in the house in it gave you one message but in another America where small town rural it was a referendum on the president and. Republicans did great. Actually picked up two seats but the thing is everything is pivoted about him and to me I have no reason to believe that job approval is GonNa be any different in any less of a predictor accurate predictor of how incumbent presents going to do is in the past, and then you know we're all waiting with baited breath for the next NBC Wall Street Journal Poll. But you remember in in your last one, what seventeen percent. Think countries head in the right direction has seventy two percent wrong track. Those are the kinds of numbers that that that that are that happen. Win Win voters decide to throw a party out. So if this is a referee, you know a if this is a referendum on the incumbent, how does president trump ran and number two the only way that doesn't happen is if he makes Joe Biden totally unacceptable and you look at Biden's favorable unfavorable numbers and you know they're not fabulous they're not great but I tell you what the hell of a lot they're better. They're better than president trump's are, and there are held a lot better than Hillary Clinton's were. So. Larry. Sabato. Donald Trump is trying to do something that we've never done in American history become the fourth straight president to win reelection. We've never had a war in fact we when when Obama won reelection, he was only. It was only the second time. We'd ever seen three in a row win three presidents, individual presents when they second concern. In a row. Where in history would trump said if you pull this one off I mean, is there a corollary? I really don't think there is a donald trump is the exception to everything every rule he's ever known about politics and maybe every rule you've ever known about life. So I don't try to fitting in anywhere because in history in the long run, he's GonNa stick out like a sore thumb, but we don't want to get into that Let me comment if I can't chuck on something Charlie said I grew most of what Charlie said but. There's some hidden pieces to this election. How does trump get reelected I mentioned one about finding will trump voters, but it's pretty clear. They've decided to declare the pandemic over and we need to remember always that the largest chunk of his base will either believe anything he says or is willing to defer to it and really doesn't care if they disagree it's not GonNa Change how they feel about trump. So the pandemic is neutralized for a lot of the trump people and then you have racial resentment I've been looking at this very closely and I have for years the Bradley effect and the wilder effect in lots of other things. The loud white respondents on these polls are not telling the truth they're giving social desirable answers as frequently happens and the While I know you got your head on the head to head or do you think they're doing it on the issues of protests like well, I think on the protest but it it carries over to the election because trump is making it such an election issue and you know Biden is in a tough place. There he's got the overwhelming majority of black voters and other minorities, but mainly black voters. So he can't say things that affect them that upset them at the same time he's got to speak to the white constituency that voted for trump but is looking to biden as an alternative. That's a tough position to be in I'm not saying it's GonNa work for trump but I'm saying, let's keep an eye on it because it's happened before. Charlie What your how does trump which you're giving me the state path Trump wins reelection. What what's most viable in your mind that I think the only way would be precisely what happened last time another words he seeks out winds in Michigan Pennsylvania Wisconsin. He does it despite the fact that this time there really will be a democratic campaign in both Michigan and Wisconsin and central Pennsylvania But that if he were to win and I put it only about twenty percent chance. But if he were to win, it would be that he found enough. UNREGISTERED, a of non non college whites or whatever he found enough votes to offset. What whatever the difference what was created by Democrats really running a real campaign trying to get the vote out Detroit Milwaukee and Ann Arbor and Lansing and Madison. That he was able to get more than that in enough to stay just ahead. But I think that's to me the electoral vote. Wise. That's the path. Because I don't I don't buy this Minnesota stuff one bit. So as far as I'm concerned Biden is going to win all twenty of hillary states and DC, and that's when we start as Vision Wisconsin Pennsylvania Arizona Florida Georgia and then keep an eyeball out on Georgia I wo- in taxes. By the way, my favorite genre says a great saying when people say and I think there's a twenty percent chance the trump wins and he goes would you fly in an airplane that had an eighty percent chance of landing? Go and finish it. Arrived there is and I heard one of my colleagues Amy Walter was talking to a pollster recently. I A democratic pollster and she said finally asked him in okay. What was your? What? Your bottom line? What do you think and he said twenty percent chance that. President trump wins the electoral college. Forty percent chance that Biden wins the electoral college narrowly. And forty percent chance that the electoral that Biden winslet vote by a really big margin and The moment she said that it just resonated with me. You know what I think that's you know narrowly means Michigan. Wisconsin Pennsylvania possibly one more state but big margin would be sweeping all the big six and maybe you know maybe maybe not necessarily grabbing one of the next four but I I don't see I mean hell you know we were all wrong last time but I. To me the only things that resemble two, thousand, sixteen in this election is number one it's a US presidential election number to Donald Trump's Republican is Republican. Republican nominee in both and three boats years again with a two and other than that I don't think there's anything like I mean come but races and non income at races. Presidential elections are just like apples and oranges. Fully, different, and then the the other line that somebody gave to me and I can't remember who said it. But I thought it was a good line too which is if you believe trump trump bake at the inside straight, he did it once just remember Jesus walked on water wants. Give you. See Him do it a second thought. Larry. I I was actually going to pose the question it it A. Charlie broke it down clearly sort of has at pollster views it as sort of there's a two to one chance that Biden hits like a three, fifty plus night or three thirty. I look at the Obama levels right somewhere in the mid three mid low to mid three hundred's on electoral. College. The likelihood that he's north of that versus trump winning like what is a greater chance that Biden gets north of Obama's numbers or that trump wins in your actually I think it's pretty close the odds are pretty close on those two things were winning. You remember that trump got three hundred, six electoral votes that means he can burn some now he's not GonNa Win Michigan. Wisconsin let's wait and see Pennsylvania your pulsa chest it's over other bowls had much closer Susquehanna was close last time did a good job and they had very close look. It's early September but he's got a that is trump has electoral votes to to burn. And so I can see Biden picking up states that Clinton didn't get but being around to seventy maybe a narrow win and Arrow loss much more likely to be a narrow win. A big win is possible if trump is trump does lots of controversial obnoxious things within shouting distance of the election and the chances of that are always good. Look at his record. It is interesting when you look at trump's path though. And I know you believe it or not earlier this week, the trump campaign started to outline. We got to pass without Florida. Charlie Cook. Basically, their theory is, Oh, we'll just will hold everything else but loose Florida and Arizona. And you're like. Okay. But what electric? What what election is that? Right, is that election that the? Older voters in Florida are going to go biden but older voters in. Pennsylvania are GONNA go trump. Right, that is a hard one to fully compute is. It is. You know I keep looking back. We were seventy eight thousand votes away from Hillary Wins we expected that, but it was a little closer we expected. And that's like an eyelash I mean when you're talking two tenths of a point. In Michigan and seven tenths of a point in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and I've leave you and I. We all three was look at enormous amounts of data and we believe in data but down to my marrow. I believe that. You had a whole bunch that trump people in two, thousand, sixteen, they they wanted they were so for him they were. So Against Hillary, they were passionate all of that great intensity and on the Clinton side for the most part, there was an a lot of ambivalence who are a lot of people that really didn't WanNa vote for her but they were never going to vote for Donald Trump but I think. They were prepared to hold their noses and vote for her and then in the last month particularly after Billy Bush access Hollywood there was no way. Trump could win. There was no way she could lose anybody that did not enthusiastically want Hillary Clinton to be president got a pass and they didn't have to vote and by God I think a lot of didn't and yet they all power three on January twenty first. Ninety, two, thousand, two, thousand, seventeen to demonstrate you I wanted the DC police to like go make people produce I, vote I voted stickers and say, okay if you could produce sticker, stay on here, knock yourself out. But if you don't have one, get the hell off the street, let's when a shift to the Senate here I think the Senate in the presidential are going to go the same direction. It just feels there's too many overlaps in it appears. To many battleground states that said Where do you see the battle for the Senate now have? Republicans feel better this week than they have in a while at least about holding they don't talk about gaining but just about holding. Well, they'd be very lucky to hold fifty three seats given what's up in the way things have been going I agree with you that there's a high probability that the presidency and the Senate will go in the same direction you can strain and find paths where they won't align but by and large you know again, it depends on your view of how this racist GonNa, go up if it's Biden blowout than I, think Democrats reasonably can expect to get fifty two seats fifty, three I. Don't believe you know some people are pushing fifty six get real you know come back to Earth. But. If it's even vaguely competitive. Let's say Biden winning by three or four or trump a winning the electoral college and keeping it to two or whatever turns out to be. Then you could see Republicans retaining fifty, one, fifty two. If you run the probabilities right now underlying right now it comes out about fifty fifty that's the probability and that means the presidential winner control. Senate to after they abolish the filibuster which they will you know in my mind the over and his four seats foresee game for Democrats I think the Arthur being more than four or about the same as it being three or less. Go through the racist. So I assume Kelly Gardner are in Jones feel as if all three are in the same place, the incumbents, all trail. Right Alabama Colorado Arizona and they all trail on unlikely barring some Shane something has to change in that campaign for the trajectory to change that. Fair. Yes, yeah I think. Yeah. So then that takes us to the next level of competitive, which feels as if it's worth Carolina. Georgia ac not the not the not the jungle primary, the the the the Georgia perdue yet. Georgia. Purdue. North Carolina, Georgia Purdue Iowa, Maine Montana they all to me the elect they're all in the same spot. Nobody's got a lead more than two or three points. Is that where it of those places who would you rather be? Charlie all start with well yeah. I I put Susan Collins in Maine and. Topped and and. Joni aren't Ston Iowa I put them closer to the edge then I would do. Her do or. Why would put till? Tillis Tillis Collins and Ernst I put Danes when notchback mean he's just gotTa get so many ticket-splitter littered that I make a little bit of a distinction there. But I I think collins aren't stint and until Tillis. Tell us as the most endangered of those three. Followed by. Collins then aren't linear them in your near Bath in Democrats have to win two of those three probably to win the majority. Yup Yup, Yup Larry where are you in these That's about where I am I. Think Maine Iowa North, Carolina are tossups obviously Montana is. It's too too big. A afford to stream a too big stream to Ford is going to be very difficult for bullock to to win that. But North Carolina depends on the presidential race. I think they will end up coinciding toward the end Iowa same way, and given the margin by which trump wanted for years ago you'd have to give the edge to to trump in Iowa and if you do. Then you have to ask who are the voters who will vote for trump who won't vote for arts main is very different because that's very likely to go for Biden by more than it went for Clinton and Susan Collins eventually your number comes up she's done a great job of managing to bridge the gap between the two parties but I think her numbers coming up. That's my guess. Stuff you know four terms is pretty impressive that she's one. It's tough to get into that fit with term fifth term column there. You know it's interesting Larry. Just pointed out about Iowa Charlie I saw some numbers yesterday. interesting. So I'm going to give you these comparisons. Trump has a bigger lead in Montana endanger does but. Are. urged has the bigger lead in Iowa than trump thus discuss. Well. I think it is very hard to find a farmer. You know someone in rural America, alight in rural. America. That voted for president trump last time and overwhelmingly they did and doesn't support him this time but they do exist and You know we're talking about Maine I've spent a lot of time this summer in Maine and it's Kinda lobstermen it out. There industry's been devastated but by God, they're holding with most are holding with him, but it doesn't take many of them to to defect just a small bit. With the increasing centralization growing suburbs around demoing, for example, it doesn't take that many to make a difference. And I think that you know that maybe Ernst might be able to have a little bit more separation. From President, trump than some others, but you know in Maine though. There is a feeling people you had a lot of people, Democrats and independents who were very proud about supporting. Susan Collins all these years. It was their sign that they're not just some partisan tool or something there sign of bipartisanship of independence, but after Cavanaugh. Tax Cuts in impeachment or they feel angry bitter betrayed. The I would say there are more goodbye Susan bumper stickers in Maine than any other political bumper sticker about that. That is that is fascinating Larry I wanNA close our conversation with this you are you are you were in Virginia you've been you've been in Virginia was a red state. You saw it become a purple state. You would argue for years that it's a much a swing state it just isn't swing presidential and Lo and behold it became a swing and presidential for like a day and then it moved moved out. What's been interesting how many states have followed the the Virginia model, which is The suburbs all of a sudden go away from the Republicans and the state dramatically changes and there's this. Saw It in. Colorado. Who saw we're seeing it near Zona and I lied, I'm leading you this way to say. Of Georgia and Texas, which one is is next to sort of experience which you saw happen nationally to the Virginia vote. Georgia I I'm a little skeptical of Texas always have been probably always will be your confusing neon colors because I'm colorblind but generally speaking I'm kidding generally speaking. The trump presidency we don't often focus on this. The trump presidency unlike most presidencies is going to have a long term hang over. For Republicans in suburbs and a lot of other places, maybe not rural areas but suburbs and in central cities, and that is going to be a major problem going forward for the Republicans but it gives Democrats opportunities to finally convert to to get that last stage of conversion that they need in Georgia and Texas. and. Some other states that are on the edge North Carolina's still on the edge. I have some of its argued to me that they would believe has a better shot at Georgia and Florida, and they're saying they're you know more likely states go the same way But it was an interesting an interesting. That someone was offer or take it. But it goes to first of all goes to the Latino problem that facing South Florida. But. Also, the increased this how NASA the suburbs ours like Morocco I you see a shift like that and you can chain campus. Chuck Has Floridian. How has this Puerto Rican? Migration to the Orlando area. Was that overstated how overstated I think what people forget the I four corridor is not swing anymore. But what happened is Republicans especially, trump trump. Trump vote. One of the weird things about sixteen. We didn't Florida turnout was up while the while turn out in the Midwestern states were down. Trump just made voters I mean I joke if the if the county didn't touch salt water. It voted for trump and way theme. You know what? The Orange County success exceptions on the IPHONE quarter? No. The I four corridor is not as swing. Is it used to be I? Mean you realize Hillary Clinton carried all all the counties we used to say you had to carry to win floor shared all. In the apple quarter. But the that that's not the way anymore, and in fact, you know what is interesting is trump ran up ran the score places like Pasco County. which is sort of like you know it's it's sort of stuck in the middle of central Florida will but it is. That's where they ran up the score and that's where he is. You know the other thing is. Trump in the same way that Biden has campaigned basically in one state for nine months. Pennsylvania trump has campaigned in one state for four years. For. So I do both of those things matter here. Well, thanks for turning to the table. This was a lot of fun. This is what I would strongly. Very Avenue Charlie Cook we get to do this again, one more than for the election voice sounds good to. Charlie. I also had a special third guest here, a bird that was literally tweeting as we none of us are big tweezers anymore but I literally word tweeting I'm recording outside to in my outside home studio because my indoor spaces are taken up by classrooms. I I was wondering who's bird that was I couldn't imagine that. Charlie. Would would have a bird to take care of it well, surely. Out. A gentleman had a pet bird. Thanks guys. I'm GONNA pause there. We'll be right back with a quick break. Maria Theresa. Kumar you're listening to the Chuck Todd asked from meet the press. Hey, it's Chris as this week podcast wise is happening. I'll be talking with Tony Basilica about what it's like to run a restaurant during the corona virus. My sense is given what kind of energy I'm getting from the veterans in the industry who I do know and how worried they are about things by senses that they're extraordinarily worried the situation that these loans have put us in. It's given us a little bit of a lifeline, but it's Kinda. Put us in a strange position where. We're kind of like sort of acting like an unemployment office or maybe employment officers. It's a very weird position to be in in I. Think it's very dangerous position to be in because I don't think it's very easy for most of us who are trying to run restaurants to like focus on what's GonNa really help this thing survive I just WanNa, make sure that people have incomes. That's this week on wise is happening search for why is this happening wherever you're listening right now and subscribe Hey Guys Willie geist here this week on the Sunday sit down podcast. I get together with Grammy Winner Mary J. Blige to talk about her new venture into the world of wine and a look back at her groundbreaking career. Get our conversation. Now for free wherever you download your podcasts, I'm joined now by Voto Latino CEO Maria Theresa Qamar to discuss why Biden is under performing with Latinos in my home state but excels with them in states like Arizona and perhaps Texas. Where Theresa Welcome back to the todd cast. Things. So it was it's interesting and and look. And I've had this conversation. Different ways in different times the Florida Latino voter. First of all, there isn't a Solo Florida Latino voter there is. Different. There's different aspects of of issues that animate certain communities in in Florida in. Obviously we know that the foreign policies. Of Venezuela and Cuba, have have an outsized impact. And I guess the question is this. When you saw the was interesting I thought about our poll metairie was the reaction it was. In. It was sort of expected. You know this has been something that's been whispered about point by kind of has this Latino issue for there's a lack of enthusiasm it's been whispered in whispered and let's all of a sudden. The Florida poll was the bullhorn is that a is that a fair way to look at it? I think I'll share with you voted Latino. We have a C. three arm where we do our voter registration and we beefed up our C. forearm to deliver Article Work Chuck and we endorsed. Biden for the very first time we'd never endorsed a presidential candidate endorsed for the very first time in April because we had been scenes from legs and we had been seeing that there was serious concern with Latinos in in Texas am sorry in both Pennsylvania and in Florida and we made it very vocal of why we were endorsing because we believe. Mine is the right person for the job, but also was a way for us to kind of sound the alarm within Latino community that things are not well for them under this administration long story short I think the biggest challenges that we saw that Latinos were. Not really paying wide paying attention to the election into weren't being spoken to. So that's one of the reasons why we we endorsed because we saw it as real critical. Opportunity to address the fact that Noah's talking community and it's been a challenge the campaign now seems to be paying attention I. Don't think they realized how deep seated it was and check if someone were to ask me will why are Latinos in Florida doing so well and voting you know aligned with trump I'd say that trump has never stopped his bill little campaigning in Florida. Since he took office and is not just trump but there are there's a congresswoman that's running right now against on chalet she parrots everything that trump says she beads on the messages of socialism. She beats on the messages of communism and says that the Democrats are Socialists and that's an let's not go back to Cuba and I deeply believe that the trump strategy is the Karl Rove strategy of the Bush administration when he was running for the White House for the first time. Trump recognizes that he doesn't need all the Latina voters. He doesn't need Auto African American voters. He just needs to skim off the top and he's doing a great job of it. So. What would you explain it? Do you believe that the difference between Arizona and Florida here is simply The amplification issue you just mentioned in south Florida that there's a Republican Party apparatus that frankly. It's been it's been. On this topic basically for three straight years and that it's just a different type of Latino voters Zona and their Republican. Party they're just as alienated them for so long that you don't have the same connectivity. Exactly right I think that the difference between a Floridian let the and at Arizona Latino I would say is that the leadership? In. Florida is not kostic. To be a to community in the same way in Arizona, you had a whole generation that grew up under. Really Racist Anti. Latino. Leadership whether we're taught Martin your Pyeho or Stephen Peers at Jan brewer and you had a whole community that while they were not eligible to vote, they were aging into the voting age population at witnessing their families being mistreated in. So in Arizona, you have a young ovulation that started organizing. Really in twenty ten that finally can flex their muscle and are old enough to vote and build coalitions and Florida. You don't really have that There is almost a privilege of being let the a not being denigrated as a result when you live in Miami places like Miami Orlando and it is a different feel politically as well. You don't have people constantly racially profiling you or disparaging you. There's a different sensibility I would say in a Latino community because they don't feel like are under attack in Florida as they do in. Tech in Texas Arizona Nevada, Georgia Virginia, North Carolina Pennsylvania, and so in that the trump administration has recognized that to speak to a floridian. UTAH. Need talk about Communism Meeting to talk about small business you need to talk. About family values and because people feel unquote safe, they don't feel that they are under attack. They feel that they can make a be aligned more with a political party that fight freely doesn't like them I. If you look at what trump is trying to do, he has set up a denaturalization task force under the Department of Justice the when you talk about. Eliminating payroll taxes you're talking about defunding social security and the funding a medicare. Two big issues in Florida that the Democrats really should be talking about because that would scare the Bejesus the majority of Latino voters or is so many of them are naturalized in. So many of them do depend on Social Security and Medicare. Discuss this with the Biden campaign. In what I see, they have done a social security and the fact is was interesting is the social security message and the message sold voters is breaking through for Biden. What was amazing about our poll is the other way to look at the pole. Yes. So, if you're biding, you'd rather overperform with older white voters right now than any other demographic group in Florida and he is at least compared to four years ago he he's doing only one part of the message said. So security message, he's not doing this naturalization. Right Cheque's doing absolutely much better with older voters, but that's fine if he was doing as well among Latino voters in African American voters. But what trump did last time in the two thousand sixteen election with African American voters he siphoned off eight percent of right that that's that's big and if you continued again doing the Karl Rove strategy where you just chip away at different voters, it's going to be very big challenge because in Florida, you're going to need all the voters to it. He'll. Gallup show. To, meet twenty two governor's Race Ranger Gillam carry volcanic Jacksonville, something, Hillary, Clinton did. But he lost up but only one Miami by by a smaller margin than. By smaller version than hell. I. Mean It'd be last four, hundred, thirteen thousand votes almost a by about the fame. Jeff. Walk Up to Florida where just that one percent skim off the top can make the difference between winning and losing stay. Exactly. Right. In I wonder if they should be making not just specimen, Florida Florida's possibly hard to to get I think for the Democrats but it's might I would encourage them to look at other opportunities in check. You know what to say I encourage them to look at Texas Tech How would you agree? With all the money you've spent in Florida at this point. Right, at this stage of the game, I, hear you on Texas long-term but at this stage of the game were spend your money. I'll share with you. We are right now registered. Registered voter in Texas. It's twenty one dollars for us to register Texan. It's six. Is it. Because this same. Atmosphere in Kostic anxiety that Latinos faced in Virginia. In Nevada in Colorado in Arizona and California way back in the way under people send. The those that same perfect environment along with meeting a new youth that is aging into the population is happening in Texas. You have two point five, million unregistered Latino Youth. Five hundred thousand of them who heard a president call their families in loved ones, rapists and criminals who also are witnessing s before that was signed into law by by Abbott that basically allows any official to question a school aged child with her American the stuff is happening in Texas is much more akin to what? Folks in Arizona felt under sp one, seventy, one eighty-seven than what we saw than what Floridians are feeling right now, there's a different type of anxiety that is really happening in Texas. Is Again, more akin to the other states that swung bending floored. Case it's a compelling case vital question is. Do you see Biden campaign doesn't have a money issue. Do Do they know their problem? Do they have the ability to address it? I think they're starting to bring in the right people and having these conversations. The challenge is that the game is not one on the traditional airwaves we're used to. It's it's one in the nooks and crannies of the Internet. It's one in the Nixon crannies of peer to peer what's up conversations, and they need to get up to speed to that because that is where people are sharing information. That is where people are using each other validations, eaters of information whether it's right or wrong, and the people that you're going to swing are paying attention by the influencers of their network online versus. The traditional Spanish language medium. Well, we shall see like I. Said I'm guessing Florida Bowl served as a interesting alarm lot Fox. Sports Talk? and. Theresa Kamara CEO Voter Latino. Excuse. Thanks. You've been listening to the Chuck Todd cast from meet the press. Today's episode was produced by Justice Screen and met Rivera John Research check producer Steve. Look. Ties the head of PODCAST FOR NBC News Our theme Music composed. By spoke media you can catch meet the press daily on MSNBC every at one PM eastern about. And the big show every Sunday morning. Thanks for listening. Mainly host into America a podcast from MSNBC, join me as we go into the roots of inequality and economic injustice and racial injustice, and then when you add health is a health injustice into what's at stake people are going to be voting not for person but for stability and into what comes next into America a podcast about who we are as Americans, and who wants to become new episodes every Monday Wednesday and Thursday subscribe now.
AP One Minute Headlines Jan 09 2019 07:00 (EST)
"I hate you with the rhinestone collar between us dogs. I just convinced my human of grade to a new home with the twelve hundred square foot bathroom. I think she called it a yard with Wells Fargo's three percent down payment on a fixed rate loan. My Uman realized new home was within reach learn more at wellsfargo dot com slash. Wells Fargo home mortgage down payments as low as three percent on a fixed rate loan require mortgage insurance. Ask a home mortgage consultant about loan requirements. Wells Fargo home mortgage is a division of Wells Fargo Bank NA equal housing lender. MLS three thousand nine hundred one. With virgin media. You can build up the entertainment and Ted down the price. Switched virgin media today and get super broadband and TV for just forty nine euro month for an awesome, twelve months the sale that stacks up now on C, virgin, media dot e and checkout, how a mobile sales stacks up to TT's applies thirteen eighty dollars. I e twelve month contract offer ends twenty seven to February twenty nine thousand. I'm Rita Foley with AP news minute. The president will visit the Mexico border tomorrow. He says the nation needs a wall at the border to resolve security and humanitarian crisis tonight. I'm speaking to you because there is a growing humanitarian and security crisis at our southern border. Chuck Schumer is the senate's top democrat Democrats and the president both want stronger border security. However, we sharply disagree with the president about the most effective way to do it. Democrats call the five billion dollar wall. The president wants immoral and ineffective political analyst Larry Sabato on the president's Oval Office address last night and the Democrats response. He didn't transform any mind. Now, the Democrats didn't either today the president will visit Capitol Hill to meet with Senate Republicans later today, he'll meet with congressional leaders of both parties at the White House. Parts of the government is shut down because of this border. Wall battle this day nineteen the. Shutdown. I'm Rita Foley. This is firefighter Raphael. Poor yet for firehouse subs. Introducing the new spicy Cajun chicken sub Cajun seasons grilled chicken, breast zesty cherry peppers and housemaid Cajun male just five fifty five for a medium. Remember a portion of every sub you buy helps provide lifesaving equipment for personal sponsors firehouse subs. Enjoy more subs saved. More lives. Limited time only plus tax participating locations by ourselves with. Tony the minimum of one million dollars in two thousand nineteen to the firehouse subs public safety foundation by building point one one percent of every purchase.
AP One Minute Headlines Jan 09 2019 05:00 (EST)
"Brexit may not be certain. But one thing is clear. Your business could face serious challenges. Enterprise. Arlyn's wide range of supports will help you plan innovate compete and diversify speak to your enterprise Arslan development adviser or visit prepare for Brexit Dodi an initiative of the government of Ireland. I'm Rita Foley with an AP newsmen at President Trump says the nation needs a wall at the border to resolve the crisis tonight. I'm speaking to you because there is a growing humanitarian and security crisis at our southern border. Top Senate democrat Chuck Schumer Democrats and the president both want stronger border security. However, we sharply disagree with the president about the most effective way to do it. He wants a five billion dollar wall, which Democrats have called the immoral and ineffective political analyst Larry Sabato on the president's Oval Office address last night and the Democrats response. He didn't transform any mind. Now, the Democrats didn't. Either the president will visit the US Mexico border tomorrow today. He'll visit Capitol Hill to meet with Senate Republicans later today, he'll meet with congressional leaders of both parties at the White House, the border wall battle has parts of the government shutdown. This is day nineteen of the shutdown. I'm Rita Foley. I'm Jay Farner, CEO of Quicken Loans, America's premier home purchase lender. We've created a new way to protect you from unpredictable interest rates are exclusive rate shield approval. I we lock your interest rate for up to ninety days. Then if rates go up your rate stays locked. But if rates go down your rate drops either way you win. Call us today at eight hundred quicken or go to rocketmortgage dot com, racial approval. Only about on certain thirty year fixed rate loans. Call for cost information and conditions. Equal housing lender. Licensed in all fifty states last number thirty thirty additional conditions are exclusions may apply. The iphone ten are is here at T mobile. And there's a whole lot of love like taking those perfect new year new you portrait mode selfish. You're going to share. It's the best way to stay connected to everyone you'll heart most in twenty nine to to get ready to fall in love with by phone ten are on team. Oh, the most loved and wireless. Call one eight hundred t mobile to learn more. Visit a store today.
AP One Minute Headlines Mar 22 2019 20:00 (EDT)
"And now an ad from dad, right? Save money on car insurance when you bundle home and auto with progressive guy. Take these right? What is this? Wow. Where did you get this? I'm talking to you with the hair. Yeah. Where did you get this? Good stuff and solid. That's not veneer that solid stuff. Progressive can't save you from becoming your parents, but we can save you money when you bundle home and auto. Progressive casualty insurance company affiliates and other insurance discounts not available in all states or situations. More of the USA than ever before. With American Airlines. Fly direct to Dallas Fort Worth from Dublin airport this summer and connect onwards to over two hundred forty destinations across North America. Enjoy complimentary meals drinks from the bar transatlantic WI fi live TV and over a thousand hours of entertainment on board. Our state of the art Dreamliner start your next big adventure with American Airlines at a dot com. Muller sons report to Justice department, I'm Tim Maguire with an AP news at Robert Muller ends his special counsel's investigation without publicly announcing any further indictments or charges in connection with Russian interference in the two thousand sixteen election and any ties the Russians may have had with the Trump campaign. Attorney general William Barr says he will review Muller's report and provide his preliminary findings to the top members of both congressional Jesuit judiciary committee's as early as this weekend. Democrats and some Republicans say the reports. Could also be made public cinema, ignore leader Chuck Schumer wants everything made public. Look, I'm not gonna draw any conclusions until we see not only the whole report, but the underlying findings documentation presidential historian, Larry Sabato, fully expects bar to make public. What can be released the right thing? The right thing to release to congress and the public as much as he can. There are certain highly confidential parts that shouldn't be released. I'm Tim Maguire. I'm ready to take the next step arm ready for university that will help me advance in my education and career university. That will make me feel supported an connecting ready for ODU online. Click this set or go to online dot ODI you EDU today and now an ad from dad. All right. Save money on car insurance when you bundle home and auto with progressive got tickies off. Right. What is this? This looks good. Wow. Where did you get this? I'm talking to you with the hair. Yeah. Where did you get this? Good stuff. Solid. That's not veneer that solid stuff. Progressive can't save you from becoming your parents, but we can save you money when you bundle home and auto. Progressive casualty insurance company affiliates and other insurance discounts not available in all states or situations.
AP Headline News Mar 22 2019 19:00 (EDT)
"Today. We're more connected than ever. We're also more distracted. We've got things to say. But as anyone listening. BBN T. We make sure your voice is heard. We listen and understand your needs. So you can live your best financial life. Everyone else may be distracted. But our focus remains on. You BBN t always see is you BBN team member FDIC. This April prepare to meet Cathy sparkle fingers. No, it's not. It's not. Sure say you're him here. The hero just say the words. Though. Hey superhero Zam in cinemas April five book tickets now. Maguire special counsel. Robert Muller is wrapped up his nearly two year long. Russia investigation without announcing any further indictments may be Donahue reports from Washington a source tells the AP Muller is recommending no further indictments his team has brought charges against thirty four people including six associates of President Trump and three companies Muller has revealed a sweeping criminal effort by Russians to interfere in the twenty sixteen election and showed people connected to the Trump campaign were eager to exploit Email stolen, from Democrats attorney general William bar has said he has a vision of two reports one for the public one for members of congress. It's unclear whether President Trump will ask to see the Muller report. And under what circumstances he or his lawyers would be able to see it at Donahue, Washington democratic leaders are demanding bar turnover. Everything to congress make it public university for Jinyan presidential expert. Larry Sabato says bar will make public as much as he can do the right thing in that. He's to release to congress and the public as much as he can. There are certain highly confidential parts that should be released. President Trump's attorney Rudy Giuliani says he and other lawyers want an early look at the findings before they're made public at something. Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer says should not happen. Attorney general bar must not give President Trump his lawyers or his staff any sneak preview of special counsel Muller's findings are evidence. President Trump has been laying the groundwork for his response to the investigation for nearly two years in an interview with FOX business network. He tried to discredit the entire investigation as a hoax deputy appoints a man to write a report on me to make determination of my presidency. People will not stand for this is AP radio news. A new report outlines a data breach involving victims of hurricanes and wildfires in his job is to help survivors of natural disasters. But a government watchdog says they have committed some mistakes also made the victims vulnerable to identity theft homeland security departments office of inspector general says FEMA wrongly released the personal information of over two million survivors of hurricanes Harvey Irma and Maria as well as the California wildfires in two thousand seventeen information, like Bank names, electronic funds transfer numbers and Bank transit numbers were accidentally provided to a contractor fame. Officials say they're working on a fixed and should have it in place by next year, Shelley antler. Washington Stanley Cup champion Washington Capitals will be at the White House Monday to be congratulated by the president. But the team's goaltender Dryden Hopi says he will be there. He says he has to stay to to his values. I'm Tim Maguire Radio New. Hi, it's Jamie, progressive's employee of the month two months in a row. Leave a message at the. Hi, jamie. It's me, Jamie. I just had a new idea for our song about the name your price tool. So when it's like tell us what you want to pay. Hey trombone goes, blah, blah, blah. And you say we'll help you find coverage options that fit your budget. Then we just all do finger snaps while choir goes, savings coming at ya. Savings coming at ya. Yes. No. Maybe. Anyway, see you practice tonight. I got new lyrics for the rap break. Progressive casualty insurance company and affiliates. Price and coverage match limited by state law. Hurry into old baby. Tomorrow for fifty percents off all swimwear two dollar tanks for her and free flipflops when you spend fifty dollars or more in store tomorrow only at old navy. Valid three Twenty-three limit five. Tanks. Select tanks and flip flops only free gift in stores. Only.
AP One Minute Headlines Nov 07 2018 11:00 (EST)
"Choosing energy company raises many questions constellation can answer all of them with energy solutions that fit your needs energy, efficient, simple, inciteful inflexible. That's what makes battleship America's energy choice. Learn more constellation dot com slash energy the day after I'm Ed Donahue with an AP news minute. Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell is happy. The majority remains on the Senate side for the GOP Democrats now have the majority in the house, but Connell says Democrats should not go after President Trump. We impeach President Clinton. His numbers went off and ours went down and we underperformed in the next election. So the Democrats under house will have to decide just how much presidential harassment. They think is good tragedy. I'm not so sure it'll work for university of Virginia political science professional. Larry Sabato says President Trump will go after House Democrats be major change for him though. He'll just quickly because he usually attacks devil fingers, and he's going to make one of Pelosi and really all of the other. Democratic leaders. You can expect daily tweets about that Georgia's hotly contested and potentially historic governor's race may not be over yet. Democrat Stacey Abrams, Republican Brian camper. Waiting for final counts of absentee and provisional ballots. I'm Ed Donahue. Adam LeVine from the boys and new music from route five we have not one not two not three up four, but all five of the Maroons here. L Helen today at three on NBC four. It's four o'clock so much has happened during the day. It's hard to keep up. That's why news four four is working for you. I Pavlos amusingly on Harris break it all down the with the storm team four forecast from Doug cameras for new four. I did four we'll be on and working for you.
AP Headline News Jan 09 2019 07:00 (EST)
"I'm Jay Farner, CEO of Quicken Loans, America's premier home purchase lender. We've created a new way to protect you from unpredictable interest rates are exclusive rate shield approval. I we lock your interest rate for up to ninety days. Then if rates go up your rate stays locked. But if rates go down your rate drops either way you win. Call us today at eight hundred quicken or go to rocketmortgage dot com, racial approval. Only valid on certain thirty year fixed rate loans. Call for cost information and conditions. Equal housing lender. Licensed in all fifty states NMLS number thirty additional conditions are exclusions may apply. The Brexit may not be certain. But one thing is clear. You business could face serious challenges. Enterprise. Wide range of supports will help you plan innovate compete on diversifying speak to your enterprise Arlen development adviser or visit prepare for breakfast Dodi an initiative of the government of Ireland. A radio news. I'm Rita Foley. Did the president change any minds last night? He says the nation needs a five billion dollar wall at the Mexico border. All Americans are hurt by uncontrolled illegal migration. It's strange public resources, and drives down jobs and wages. Among those hardest. Hit are African Americans and Hispanic Americans. But Democrats aren't convinced house speaker Nancy Pelosi accuses the president of misinformation and malice top how atop Senate democrat Chuck Schumer Democrats and the president both want stronger border security. However, we sharply disagree with the president about the most effective way to do it. What does the nation think this morning political analyst Larry Sabato on President Trump's Oval Office address in the democratic response? He didn't transform any mind. Now, the Democrats didn't. Either the border wall battle has shut down parts of the government day nineteen of that shutdown. Oh, something we weren't supposed to see investigators or accusing former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort of lying about sharing information with a Russian contact information was accidentally revealed in a defense lawyer filing that was meant to be redacted. It says Manafort shared polling data during the twenty sixteen presidential campaign with an associate accused of having ties to Russian intelligence and lied to federal investigators about it at Donahue, Washington. Paul Manafort has pleaded guilty to conspiracy charges. Police in Phoenix are collecting a DNA sample from every man who works for a Phoenix long term care facility. They're investigating a case in which a twenty nine year old woman in a vegetative state for more than ten years gave birth to a baby. Boy, the woman's family says the child will be well cared for. They are asking for privacy. This is AP radio news. A new study shows the dad were tising for drugs and medical devices has nearly doubled in the past two decades. And there's a warning there. Researchers estimate medical marketing reach thirty billion dollars in twenty sixteen. Nearly a twofold increase from nineteen Ninety-seven ads. For prescription drugs were run about five million times in just one year spending on consumer ads climbed the fastest. But most of the dollars are spent marketing to doctors, the Dartmouth College health policy expert who wrote the study, Dr Steven willow Shen says consumers need to be skeptical about those drug marketing claims he says, marketing drives more treatments and more testing. Which patients don't always need. I'm Jacky Quin gases to Twenty-three a gallon. This morning demand is hitting its lowest level in nearly two years says the AAA a year ago gas was almost two fifty a gallon. I'm Rita Foley, AP radio news. This is fire fighter Raphael. Poor yet for firehouse subs. Introducing the new spicy Cajun chicken sub Cajun seasons grilled chicken, breast zesty, cherry peppers and housemate Cajun male just five fifty five for a media member. A portion of every sub you buy helps provide life safety equipment for purse respondents via subs until more subs. Save more lives. Limited time only plus tax participating locations by ourselves. With donate a minimum of one million dollars in two thousand nineteen to the firehouse subs public foundation by donating point one one percent of every purchase.
Trump, Biden and Coronavirus in 2020
"From younger finance this election. I'm Rick Newman and I'm Alexis Christopher's welcome everyone to the election onyx. Podcast we hear Yahoo. Finance are all broadcasting from our respect an impact on the twenty twenty election. We're not talking much about the election. It seems like Joe Biden the presumptive Democratic nominee has into hiding. But we want to talk about how this virus could impact president. Trump's chances of being reelected I guess the latest wreck is that trump is saying we could reopen the economy in less than a month. He's looking at Easter now. Just first off. What are your thoughts? Well my read on what's going to president. Trump's mind is He recognizes that. You just don't win. Reelection has an incumbent president If there is a recession on your watch especially if it comes late in your watch a leading into when voters go to the polls now obviously many other things are going on here. I don't think the any voters actually blame president trump or would blame him for the fact that the corona virus exists or that arrived here in the United States. I mean that would happened under any president but there are some major questions about trump's handling it and about the federal government's response to the virus in the in the effect it's now having on the basically the entire US economy so Just to frame this conversation. Let's I I just want to look up some so. I'm looking into my Webcam here and my computer's over here so I'm GonNa look over to this study. That Larry Sabato the political scientists at the University of Virginia put up on his political side which is called sabotage crystal ball. Anybody can look this up this analysis by Alan Abramowitz a political scientist so Alan Abramowitz has done some good analysis on a president's reelection odds given two things his approved his or her approval rating. But it's always been his so approval rating and change in GDP in the second quarter of the election year. So just to give you a sense of where this seems to sit for. President trump right now prison. Trump's approval rating is about a minus ten. That's what it has been for most of his presidency And we are now hearing projections that GDP growth could hit negative three four or five percent on a year over year basis in the second quarter. So if if if we were have negative. Gdp growth of three percent so negative negative three three percents trump would only get one hundred eighty four electoral votes if GDP falls to minus four percent year over year that trump's electoral vote total would follow one sixty four and if it's minus five percent in GDP trump one hundred and forty four electoral votes. Takes Two hundred seventy two seven zero electoral votes to win? So if trump wins between a one hundred and forty four hundred eighty four electoral votes. That is lacking. That's a wipeout. That's not even a close election. So that's how. The Corona virus is affecting trump's reelection odds at least on paper now. There are some people who think well maybe the country will rally behind President Trump And sort of view him. The way you might view a word time president You know when the nation would get a tax such as George W Bush after the nine eleven terrorist attacks we had Anthony Scaramucci to former trump advisor on our air. Recently on Yahoo. Finance saying trump could win SCARAMUCCI has been one of these sort of Guys backdrop and then completely flipped said He's teased terrible. I he's GonNa get creamed in November but now with these development SCARAMUCCI is saying. Oh maybe he could win. A we have no idea whether voters will rally behind trump as if he's a wartime president. I do know that as of now which is about ten days after this whole thing really started to get bad. There's basically been no change in trump's approval rating. I expect that to change one way or the other because I mean this is just such a profound event. Maybe people just don't know what to make of it but I think it's more polls change. That will change trump so trump knows. He's gotTa get something going here He's got to get the economy started again. He's got to do something about the millions of jobs. We'RE GONNA lose. Obviously he pays a lot of close attention to the stock market. Which I know you've been talking about every day breathlessly Alexis so that is trump problem and it's a big one now. I want to get back to his approval. Rating you said. It's at minus ten percent net net approval rating. So when you when you say the portion who approve minus the portion who disapproved so his Let's say his net approval. I think last time I looked at five. Thirty eight was around forty. Four percent net approval in maybe a disapproval was fifty two percent. I mean so. That's eight percent of his net approval. Then would be negative eight. So He's in that range he's been in that range of around negative eight negative ten. I mean he has had a negative approval rating his whole Presidency what about this this concept of president trump as a wartime president? I believe he said it himself. During one of the numerous press conferences. He's been having with the media. He likened the virus to a war and he was saying that he was a wartime president. what could he be doing rick that he's not doing with the executive power he has to try and fight this enemy. I think there's one huge thing It is a go as big and aggressively as you can to ramp up testing in. The United States has lagged on this from the beginning. So we all know. Trump was very dismissive of this buyer. He said all these things that are going to come back to haunt him in the fall general election. He said it will disappear of the virus. He said we haven't under control. We have it contained. He said all things like that and all of that is turned out to be completely untrue but I think worse than that. We're now getting some understanding of why it took so long to get tests out there so we could figure out what was going on so There've been good investigative reports by the Associated Press. Reuters has done something. There's another piece in the New Yorker what took so long and they were just stumbling in bundling all along the way so the CDC had problems. There were mistakes in the test kits. They doubt they had redo some of those original tasks at the same time there was no Impetus from the White House. Nobody from the White House really banging on heads in this should have been happening in January saying. Hey we need to get on this this this could be this is this is sort of a five alarm fire. We need to be throwing everything out is because look what's happening in China. Now trump is has set things like nobody could have known what would happen. That is not true And the record clearly shows there. Were there were a public health experts publishing op eds in all the leading newspapers. Saying this is a bigger problem than anybody is acknowledging right now. Here are the things we need to do. Ron Clain who was the Bulla are under president? Obama publish something like that in the Washington Post in in the middle of January saying. We're not doing nearly enough and now president trump is saying well I No one knew that it was going to be like. That's not true so in a sense. It's if he wants to go with that. Wartime president analogy will the wartime President Levies. Guard DOWN IN ALLOWED AN ATTACK. Take place or did not. Respond is aggressively to attack as he should have so to go back to your original question. The thing we must be doing now is testing as many people as possible I mean the ideal outcome here would be to have enough test for multiple tests of the entire. Us population Yes a one billion tests in the idea is if you can test everybody then you can then you can figure out. These people are fine. They had the test. They're fine so they're free to move around now. We know who can who can go around or go back to work go shopping or do whatever and we also know that these other people here are not okay by the way Medical experts are saying that the actual infection rate is probably ten times higher than reported infection rates. So we've got tons of people in the country who are infected and don't know and they're walker walking around and Infecting other people the infection rate for corona virus is much higher than it than it is for the flu and the virus itself is considerably more dangerous than the flu. So that's why we're having these exit I will get this right. I guess I WANNA say existential. But what I what I mean to say is exponential revenues exponential increases in numbers. Here in New York and other places. And that's going to be showing up more and more places so I'm I'm honestly matic right now. Part of the issue is if you're not showing symptoms you could be out and about and still spreading it now. The president would say once the economy to get back up and running by Easter time. But that doesn't mean that state by state. Those governors are going to do that if they're seeing what's happening on the ground within their own state with their own healthcare workers on the front line realizing that their hospitals are already Max damage. We keep hearing here in New York State Governor. Cuomo talking about and I actually have a sister who's an emergency room nurse and she's telling me her hospital is just so thin they have hospital beds up and down the hallways or for people who were ill she saying. They don't have the masks and other equipment. They need to do their work and she's afraid to go into work. I mean if those are the conditions and I'm hoping they're not three four weeks out regardless of what president trump says these governors are not going to get back to business as usual right. Well Governor Cuomo here in New York is actually saying it's GonNa get considerably worse here in New York so he if assuming we considered do the things we're doing now we're going to see the peak of this In thirty or forty five days that's my understanding and Look that that would come after. What president trump is now saying? Let's get started reopening things around Easter. Which is April twelve? You know president cannot order local economies to reopen that is up to a mayors and governors. And you know people who don't have this in their community yet. Do I can understand why they don't appreciate the scale of the problem but Any mayor I think it's if you're if the people who run your healthcare system are telling you They are about to get swamped with more sick people they can treat and some of those are going to be fatal cases and they are going to be having to let patients die that they might otherwise be able to save if they had the capacity. I don't think any governor faced with that with that choice and knowing that he or she would have to explain the consequences when they happened. Would say I don't care. Let's just leave all the businesses open. I'm not GonNa shut down bars and restaurants. Barber SHOPS NAIL SALONS. Were just going to tolerate this public health emergency. I mean so for president trump. He's going to reopen businesses. He's I mean if he actually does you know he probably will not actually do that. I get he. He feels like he wants to do that. But I don't see how we he can because I just don't can't imagine any governor or mayor doing that in posing that kind of a burden on the local healthcare system and I guess one last thing I'll say on this lexuses I I've been hearing so as I've been writing about this. I have been hearing from people who live in flyover country And I say that that's a term of to me. I'm from Pittsburgh which is fly over country. I grew up there and I still family there. They kind of consider this a an urban or coastal thing in that maybe you know it's like a Sodom and Gomorrah phenomenon and it's never gonna come to them You know it is going to hit rural communities. Only epidemiologists are saying in the problem. Either be more acute there because a lot of rural communities have very limited hospital access. Some of them don't have any intensive care. Units and governor Cuomo. Here New York did say recently. He said what we've got going on in here. This is coming to your community. Wherever you live in America look at us as the example of. What's about to happen to you so for everybody who thinks that we in the media are exaggerating overstating this. I regret to inform them. I think they will soon understand why this is so serious. I think that's an excellent point in a couple of people that I know. They were not attacking when they said this but they did say look. I know you're in the media and I think the media's just blowing this up And you know we would like nothing more than to be able to report better news about this. But I'd like to think we are conduits of of a number of facts for people and we hope that people listen to what we're telling them because the only way to get a handle on this is indeed of each and every one of US practices social distancing. Just because what's scary about this is we just don't know who has the virus who doesn't again coming back to that as dramatic we go. I just want to remind people that's why it is so important to get testing massive massive testing capacity if we ever have to Overdo it on some just overdo it there. Is You know you have to think about the private sector? So we have a lot of companies now are trying to ramp up production not just of test of ventilators and masks and other things personal the personal protective equipment. The health care workers need. But you know they They're even now. I think rightfully reluctant to start mass producing stuff that is going to be needed. They don't know how they know how long it's going to be needed. So it had some in some parts of the supply chain here. They could be. They could start mass producing stuff and end up stuck with a lot of stuff that they're just gonNa take a loss on. So that is where the government needs to step in. That is actually the job of government which is to to help. Companies bear the risk or to take some of that risk off the company's when it's in the public interest in the not in it's a national priority and trump has not done this yet. I mean he has talked about activating this DP a defense up Productive Act. But he's not really used it to do much of anything so far and I. I just think he's way behind on this and we don't WanNa over politicized this but this is going to become a just a huge political issue in the fall and voters gonNA decide trump faced a crisis. Did you handle it? Well or did. He fail an governors albeit. A lot of them are democratic governors. But still like the Connecticut Governor Lamont telling trump. I think you should just shut down the whole country for a little while so we can wrap our heads around this and that of course. Cuomo here in New York. Are The governor here. Asking trump to go ahead and invoke those powers and to put American companies at work to produce the products that we so desperately need I wanted to talk about Biden Joe by. I mean what happens if this went into hiding. I mean we know at least as of the recording. This podcast Bernie. Sanders has not yet dropped out of the race. You know what's the latest there? Joe Biden is still alive and well as far as we know he has started making some TV appearances via. I saw one thing he did on. Tv they said it was via satellite. But I to me. It looked like it was just via a Webcam. Like I'm talking to right now. Joe Biden so clearly they're not doing any campaign events and had we had normal voting I think you're getting to the point. That Bernie Sanders would probably be gone sooner if we had actual voting going on still a lot of those states have postponed their elections so that in a wedding. That's a reprint Roberta standards. He's he's way behind. He's going to lose. Barring something unforeseen but now there's there are no additional votes for a while so he's going to stay in and he and Biden have both been sort of having their say about this. I don't think the media's paying a lot of attention and I think that's appropriate What JOE BY JOE? Biden's not president so there will come a time when you know he can up Present an alternative vision for what you know. What he thinks needs to be done But you know. It's this delicate on problem. So Joe Biden has been taking some shots at president trump when he when he talks about this is outlined east. He has a plan he does have a grown of Irish response plan again. He's not the president and he's not in any position to enact that plan. So what's the point But you know there is there is a you know this politics. And it's not GonNa it's not gonNA become genteel just because of this virus so Binds been a by the time I think we will certainly be hearing a lot from him. in this regard once she is the actual nominee assuming he is and this. I'm sure there's going to be an ugly battle come. The fall would hope that by the time. The general election really heats up in September and October of Later this year one would hope that we have made some progress on this and so that Biden is not really going after a sitting president. He's having to make life in decision life and death decisions every day but that it could be in that position and frankly I will say if this crisis is still that bad by By September and October I. I think trump is toast. Oh for sure for sure ornament and that leads me to my next question is their time. So all of this is so time-sensitive right right but is there time for trump to turn things around for himself and have the American people view him in a more favorable light. Is there still time for him to do that in this pant I guess there is? I mean we're about Seven months away from November. Right now I don't I don't have a good feel for that. Honestly I mean it's been my best guess And this is this. Not wishful thinking. This is what I think is actually going to happen. Based on analysis icy we've talked. We talked about this at the beginning of the year. I think trump is likely to lose in November. And I think that's for several reasons we've outlined before before corona virus ever popped up. You know I think Mike Bloomberg's money is GonNa make a big difference and Barack Obama has been on the sidelines totally silent. I think once Barack Obama gets involved which I assume he will think that's really going to help drive up Democratic Boat. But will we even have an election on the day? I mean I we probably will but I who knows I think you have to yourself? What prominent people? I mean a lot of film. Celebrities have gotten this disease. What if some of them start to die What what how will that affect popular opinion? you know there since. This is more dangerous to older people than to younger people and it is. I you know everybody is saying everybody who knows about a pandemic city is saying this is going to get worse before it gets better. I'm just wondering what is that. GonNa look like an will. Voters let trump off the hook for that when he could have been on this at least a month sooner than he actually was and arguably almost two months sooner Especially as the wing everything that happens in the markets every day I know now. Do you like the stock market will be in better shape than it is right now by. Election Day. Well boy. I hope so as of this. We've got as of this podcast. You've got the Dow off nearly thirty seven percent in just a month time. I mean how low are we going to go? I guess we still my tests that But all the experts. I'm talking to say it's great all the monetary and hopefully fiscal stimulus. That's coming but at the end of the day if the headlines about the virus don't get better we don't start to see things moving in the right direction regarding the actual pandemic and the health of Americans. They don't see how the market can actually start to turn around to to build a sustainable rally. I mean we haven't had back to back rallies on Wall Street in more than six weeks right now and all the experts. I'm talking to say if you want just a glimmer of hope that you've hit bottom. You need to start seeing two or more consecutive up days for the stock market. You know. I'd also hope that our medical professionals who are advising president trump are talking about an exit strategy How do we exit out of a lock down? Because it's not just going to be v-shaped recovery as a lot of people had hoped in the beginning. I think it's becoming more and more clear that this can become a u-shaped recovery for this market a much slower gradual move to the upside and I'm wondering at least I'm hoping that there are plans for how we're GonNa vote come November November's along time away but even when this economy gets back up and running I don't know about you. I don't feel like running out being with a bunch of people and I don't feel like being line waiting to vote so happening. The podcast again in the same room. I know that I'll I'll get into room with you. That's not a problem but I mean when when I have to go with a bunch of people. I don't know if I want to do that. So I'm hoping that you know our leaders are thinking about this and planning for a strategy out of this this lockdown mode for a lot of states and also about. Well I think the I I actually think. We need to dispense with the idea of an exit strategy. Because I think this is going to be one of those things that you just muddle through and you never know when you have actually one until maybe it's in the past at some point in it's not gonna be a decisive victory. I mean the viruses not going to raise a white flag and say Eissa render. It's never going to be that. We do know that the development of a vaccine would be if a definitive a point at which everybody could get vaccinated and then we might be able to say okay. We finally got through this but as everybody points out that is Twelve to eighteen months away and then everybody has to get the vaccine so that would do it but what happens in the meantime. Can we get to a point? Where some parts of the economy come back online and it and we all feel that. It's okay for certain people to get back together. Do Face to face commerce in events and all the things we used to do again that depends on super aggressive public health strategies right now and testing testing testing so some of the physicians. I've been following. Say You have to be prepared not just to test people once but the test people multiple times and you have to do things like sample the population so just a random sample of the population all around the country. So you can figure out. What do we think the infection rate actually is and then then use that data to try to start narrowing in what you think you need to do? Can you identify places where the virus it looks as as has receded and then maybe you do sort of a contained a comeback of economic activity in that era by the same idea? Identify hotspots in as hot spots. Pop Up you need to put these warranties these sort of quarantine hot spots around the huge problem we have right now is because we don't know who has it and who doesn't we're going on the assumption that everybody has it at everybody is a spreader so we have to have better information. This is really a data problem and let me just attesting problem. Which makes you wonder if Mike Bloomberg had had stuck around data guy would have had a better chance we don't. He became mayor right after the tragedy of nine eleven Would he have had a better chance? Do you think we're what we're up against time. But what do you think I am not seeing anybody showing real leadership in terms of mobilising all resources from public sector private sector military anything else. That's out there mobilized all of those resources into one giant national effort to get testing everywhere. It's happening it is happening everywhere but it's happening. You know a little bit here. New York is trying to do each thing. Eleanor he's trying to do. Its thing. Who's WHO's running the show not clear at this point. Yeah we definitely need a more cohesive. You know group effort here even within our own. Our own borders all right. We'll certainly president. Trump is going to be judged that continues to be judged by how he handles his pandemic and it could mean whether or not he remains in the White House. Come November still so many question marks and Rick. Thank you for being with me. We're GONNA continue to talk about all this stuff in the days and weeks ahead in our election onyx podcast. Thank you all for being with us. We hope that you are staying safe and being well. I'd make sure to follow me at Alexis. Tv News and me. Rick J Newman. Are Everybody until next time you out.
AP Headline News Jan 09 2019 06:00 (EST)
"I'm Jay Farner, CEO of Quicken Loans, America's premier home purchase lender. Today's fluctuating interest rates can leave you with unexpected higher mortgage payments at Quicken Loans. We've created a new way to protect you from unpredictable interest rates. So you can buy a home with certainty. It's called rate shield, and here's how it works with rate shield. You can lock your interest rate while you shop for a new home. So if rates go up, you don't have to worry. And here's the best part. If rates go down you get the lower rate with rate shield, we really have you covered. Here are more reasons why you wanna work with America's largest mortgage lender for nine years in a row now Jd power has ranked Quicken Loans highest in the nation in customer satisfaction for primary mortgage origination. And for the fifth year in a row, they've also ranked us highest in the nation for mortgage servicing rate shield, another way, we can save you money on your mortgage. Call us today at eight hundred quicken or go to rocketmortgage dot com. Basin. Rocket mortgage data in comparison to public data records, Rachel approval only valid answering thirty or purchase transactions. Call for cost information and conditions. Equal housing lender. License in all fifty states MLS number thirty thirty additional conditions or exclusions may apply. Why? A radio news. I'm Rita Foley. How is the nation reacting to President Trump's first Oval Office address to the nation. He argues that the country needs a five billion dollar wall at the Mexico border every day customs and border patrol agents encounter thousands of illegal immigrants trying to enter our country. We are out of space to haul them, and we have no way to promptly return them back home to their country. But Democrats in their response accused the president of appealing to fear, not facts. House speaker Nancy Pelosi on the border wall battle that has shut down parts of the government says -ly much of what we heard from President Trump's throughout the census shutdown has been full of misinformation and even malice the president has chosen fear. We want to start with the facts. So is the president changing any minds are the Democrats political analyst, Larry Sabato? Only people who were truly listening to him and would be affected by anything. He said are already for him and inclined to believe any thing. He utters period. He didn't transform any mind. Now, the Democrats didn't either later today. The president goes to Capitol Hill to try to shore up support for his position later today. He'll meet at the White House with congressional leaders of both parties did Russia interfere with the presidential election on behalf of Donald Trump by using inside information from the Trump campaign prosecutors with special counsel, Robert Muller's office are accusing former campaign chairman Paul Manafort of sharing political data during the campaign with a business associate accused of having ties to Russian intelligence and prosecutors say he lied to them about it, according to a court filing. This is a P radio news. You still have time to shop at Sears company, chairman has gotten a few more hours to secure the funding. He's promised to keep Sears afloat. Lawyers for Sears told a New York bankruptcy judge that there had been round the clock negotiations to try to save a deal offered by CEO Eddie Lampert to preserve four hundred twenty five stores and fifty thousand jobs Lampert is apparently willing to deposit tens of millions of dollars from his ES L hedge fund to satisfy the board of directors. But that doesn't automatically save the company leopards bid, we'll go to auction next week competing with other bids from liquidators who are trying to shut down Sears. I'm Jacky Quin. The Federal Reserve says American slowed their pace of borrowing a little bit in November. But the number still grew by twenty two billion dollars auto and student loans offset some of the decline in the category that covers credit cards. I'm Rita Foley. AP radio news. The iphone ten are is here at T mobile. And there's a whole lot of love like taking those perfect new year new you portrait mode selfish. You're going share? It's the best way to stay connected to everyone you'll heart most in twenty nine two. So get ready to fall in love with by phone ten are on T mobile. The most loved and wireless. Call one eight hundred t mobile to learn more. Visit a store today. I'm Jay Farner, CEO of Quicken Loans, America's premier home purchase lender. We've created a new way to protect you from unpredictable interest rates are exclusive rate shield approval. I we lock your interest rate for up to ninety days. Then if rates go up your rate stays locked. But if rates go down your rate drops either way you win. Call us today at eight hundred quicken or go to rocketmortgage dot com, racial approval. Only ballot on certain thirty year fixed rate loans. Call for cost information and conditions. Equal housing lender. Licensed in all fifty states MLS number thirty thirty additional conditions or exclusions may apply.
AP Headline News Jan 09 2019 09:00 (EST)
"The Starlight lounge presents an evening with the progressive box. Let's go tickling the ivories. He just saved. By bundling home and auto progressive gonna finally by a ring for that gal of yours Hugo send dolences. This next one St.. There's. In my all, thank you. Because of casualty insurance company and affiliates. Discounts on available in all states or situations. The Brexit Nino be certain, but one thing is clear. You business could face serious challenges. Enterprise. Orlands wide range of supports will help you plan innovate compete on diversify speak to your enterprise Arlen development adviser or visit prepare for Brexit Dodi an initiative of the government of Ireland. Radium years. I'm Rita Foley. President Trump will try some arm twisting today on Capitol Hill after that Oval Office address last night during which he said, the nation needs of five billion dollar wall at the Mexico border in his national address, President Trump claimed there's a crisis on the border with Mexico, a crisis of the heart and a crisis of the soul. Critics call the security risks overblown and Trump is at least partly to blame for the humanitarian situation. Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer, and the Democrats respond says the president has used the wall to divide the nation throughout this debate. And throughout his presidency. President Trump has appealed to fear not facts Schumer says the president should reopen the government including agreeing to extend funding for homeland security to allow time for compromise Tim McGuire, Washington, so did the president or the Democrats change any minds last night university. Virginia political analyst Larry Sabato says no we're so deeply divided that is the fundamental problem at the core of all of this. And we have a very very divisive president the most divisive in my lifetime. And I started with Truman we're hearing the deputy attorney general rod Rosenstein who appointed lead rush investigator. Robber Muller is expected to leave his position soon. We're told Rosenstein will leave after President Trump's choice for the attorney general's job. William bar is confirmed. Prosecutors with Robert Muller's office are accusing former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort of sharing information during the presidential campaign with a business associate accused of having ties to Russian intelligence and prosecutors say Paul Manafort lied to them about it. This is according to a court filing was accidents revealed by defense attorneys. This is a P radio news. President Trump is upset the tight relationship between the US and Europe. And now Europe is firing back a key. You lawmakers group has fired off a letter to Washington in a letter to be sent to members of congress the delegation. Few us relations criticize what it cools. The increasing me home-field approach from the White House and decries the dimension of the EU ambassador to the US in the notch. Sleaze ceremonial diplomatic list of precedents to the bottom of the list in the letter obtained by the Associated Press the delegation pleads that both sides, not undermine each other. As it says doing so it play into the hands of rival global powers chance. Atlantic relationships have subtly worsened since Trump became president two years ago. I'm Karen Shamas. Iran's supreme leader is calling US officials quote, first class idiots, the US and Iran have an already tense relationship as the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei makes his comments. I'm Rita Foley. AP radio news. Firefighter Raphael Pori yet for firehouse subs. Introducing the new spicy Cajun chicken sub Cajun seasons grilled chicken, breast zesty, cherry peppers and housemate Cajun male just five fifty five for immediate. Remember a portion of every sub you buy helps provide life safety equipment for personal sponsors firehouse subs. Enjoy more subs. Save more lives. Limited time only. Plus tax participating locations by ourselves. With donate. A minimum of one million dollars in two thousand nineteen to the firehouse subs public safety foundation. Right. Donating point one one percent of every purchase. The iphone ten are is here at T mobile. And there's a whole lot to love like taking those perfect new year new portrait mode selfish. You're going to share. It's the best way to stay connected to everyone you'll heart most in two thousand nine to so get ready to fall in love with by phone ten are on team. Oh, the most loved and wireless. Call one eight hundred t mobile to learn more. Visit a store today.
AP Headline News Jan 09 2019 08:00 (EST)
"Brexit may not be certain. But one thing is clear. Your business could face serious challenges. Enterprise. Arlyn's wide range of supports will help you plan innovate compete and diversify speak to your enterprise Arslan development adviser or visit prepare for Brexit Dodi an initiative of the government of Ireland. A new radio news. I'm Rita Foley stepping down. We are learning that the man overseeing the Justice Department's Russia investigation is expected to leave his job soon deputy attorney general rod Rosenstein is intimidated to leave the Justice department where he's been overseeing the day to day operations, the special counsel Robert Mueller's investigation into Russian meddling in the two thousand sixteen election soon after William bars confirmed as attorney general once confirmed bar would assume oversight of that probe. It isn't unusual for attorneys, general and other cabinet secretaries. The have their own deputies AP Washington correspondent Matt small prosecutors with special counsel Robert Muller's officer accusing a former Trump campaign chairman of sharing information with the Russians Paul Manafort is accused of sharing polling data during the campaign with a business associate accused of having ties to Russian intelligence. Prosecutors say. Manafort, lied to them about it. Manafort has previously pleaded guilty to conspiracy charges in the Muller investigation. President Trump visits the Mexican border tomorrow after an Oval Office address last night over the years, thousands of Americans have been brutally killed by those who illegally entered our country and thousands more lives will be lost. If we don't act right now. The Democrats say the five billion dollar wall. He wants to put up at the border is immoral and won't work to resolve the nation's immigration challenges. House speaker Nancy Pelosi also says the president is overstating the threat at the border. Sadly, much of what we heard from President Trump's throughout this sense of shutdown has been full of misinformation and even malice the president has chosen fear. We want to start with the facts political analyst, Larry Sabato, transform any mind. Now, the Democrats did neither this is AP radio news. Financially troubled, Sears may be about to be rescued. Lawyers for Sears told a New York bankruptcy judge that there had been round the clock negotiations to try to save a deal offered by CEO Eddie Lampert to preserve four hundred twenty five stores and fifty thousand jobs Lampert is apparently willing to deposit tens of millions of dollars from his ES L hedge fund to satisfy the board of directors. But that doesn't automatically save the company Lippard's bid, we'll go to auction next week competing with other bids from liquidators who are trying to shut down Sears. I'm Jacky Quin. Iran's supreme leader is calling US officials first class idiots this as you as secretary of state, Mike Pompeo toured the Mideast promote the White House tough stance on Iran. The Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is comments reflect the border tench broader tension between Iran and the US Rita Foley, AP radio news. We came looking for real main winter, and we found it we were headed to the lodge. The fire really the only thing I wanted was some hot cocoa and one more foot of snow. I forgot that days like this last longer than we think this trail these woods, these pount's these stories they start with us. They stay with us plan. Your main winter getaway at visit main dot com. I'm Jay Farner, CEO of Quicken Loans, America's premier home purchase lender. We've created a new way to protect you from unpredictable interest rates are exclusive rate shield approval. I we lock your interest rate for up to ninety days. Then if rates go up your rate stays locked. But if rates go down your rate drops either way you win. Call us today at eight hundred quicken or go to rocketmortgage dot com. Racial only on certain thirty year fixed rate loans. Call for cost information and conditions. Equal housing lender. Licensed in all fifty states MLS number thirty thirty additional conditions or exclusions may. Why?
The Democrats' Miserable Week
"The candidates welcome by Spice Guide in the first question is for you in the last few days you can say the Democrats will be taking you too. Big A risk if they nominate Senator Sanders for mayor glued edge but they came out on top in Iowa. What risks to the I would Democrats Miss? Oh this along the long race that took it. I'll I'll probably take it here. Traditionally Bernie One by twenty points last time and Do well I'm no matter what I'm still on this for the same reasons in God love Ya. That was Joe Biden making his closing bid to voters Friday at the latest Democratic presidential. Debate in New Hampshire a state where The former vice president was leading in the polls as recently as three weeks ago but tomorrow night might finish this lowest fifth. Hello everyone welcome to the reason. Roundtable I am at Welsh joined by my esteemed colleagues Peter Sudirman Nicholas and Catharine Mangku word. Happy New Hampshire Eve. Everybody how payment happy Monday. So we're GONNA talk about the by Den Death March plus some news. You might have missed this past week budged first. Who wants another libertarian? podcast you you want another libertarian podcast and it is called Lions of liberty. Let me briefly tell you about it. They've got three weekly shows under that. One on Bella. Feed feed over at lines of LIBERTY DOT com. There is the eponymous Monday flagship program between guests such as Ron Paul Jean Epstein and our own beloved nickel SB Wednesday today to have electric liberty. Land a comedic breakdown of culture and current events and then there's felony Friday where you get inspiring firsthand tales about people battling the criminal in Justice System Goldline's liberty dot com or your favorite podcasting platform. You'll be glad you did okay. What a absolutely terrible a week for the Democratic Party the Iowa Caucus caucus up their vote? Tabulations Pretty terribly and even though the turnout wasn't a particularly a high in the end Bernie Sanders basically on the popular vote people to Judge when the delegate vote and Joe Biden finished fourth. Just tick ahead of Amy Klobuchar while those recriminations recriminations were still ongoing President Donald Trump gave a pretty effective state of the Union address. Tuesday night in which he didn't even reference impeachments speaking of which on on Wednesday the president's was formally acquitted along party lines with the sole exception of Mitt. Romney voted on one count. Then trump spiked the football in a bizarre czar victory ramble from the White House and kind of began firing everyone who testified against him. Democrats now are increasingly face a choice between a a Democratic Socialist you honeymoon Soviet Union a McKinsey manufactured child politician who progressives despise and a billionaire. Stop and Frisk Kerr who they hate even more nick. You Hate Joe Biden more than life itself Is it possible that after seven times of doing this. He's just not very good at running for President President. Yeah I think that's coming through pretty loud and clear and unlike Fine wine he is really getting worse with age has cork. He's been corked Matt. The unwillingness for him to even engage. Stephanopoulos is question in the the bit that you ran. I think think is really telling. And it's it's telling two possible ways one he doesn't WanNA actually come out swinging against Bernie and Pete Buddha judge or any of his yes Opponents in in clear resounding terms like he should have answered vibrantly and ex explained exactly what he meant. which is you would be a good message or that? He didn't understand the question and that he needs like fifteen minutes of you know of Kind of preempt time to figure out what the Hell is going to say about anything saying because through so many birds nest like corked in his brain somewhere. I don't know if you guys saw Saturday night live this weekend. But they're called open was the democratic debate and the the funniest bid although it's cruel but there's humor for you the moderator says Mr Biden. You have sixty seconds. He goes what the doctor said. I had six eight months brutal. Peter you live in Washington. I saw some of you people out there. High fiving Abidin for posted debates attack adding adding a Pete Buddha judge for his his life accomplishments as a politician which included like you know repaving some stones and putting up lights in the city isn't the whole like Hey I've been in Washington for a half century thing not the most particularly inspiring campaign message. I think it is a problem for Joe Biden right now. He is not offering hiring people and actual positive vision except not Bernie and that has always been his pitch is he is a return to normalcy. Whatever that is and in some you know we could argue whether he is returned to normalcy? We could argue that. He's actually much more liberal than Obama Than Than Hillary Clinton. There's you know I think those are plausible good arguments. It's even for various reasons is proposing any more taxes more spending but in some ways he is a return to the democratic establishment as we have known it for the last thirty or forty years and the problem is the democratic establishment as we have known it for the last thirty or forty years is not particularly popular. Sucks it is it is it. It is bad for a lot of reasons that Libertarians would think. But it's also not super popular amongst Democrats and that's why you are seeing a democratic voters. Look look for an alternative in somebody who is relatively young and untested mayor Pete and in somebody who is known as an outsider critic of the Party and who has been a consistent critic of the Democratic Party for basically his whole political career and that is Bernie Sanders. Of course until Biden is arguing that you should return turned to a thing that everyone in his own party now not quite everyone but many many people in his own party or trying to get away from Catherine As our resident Pete Stan Dan how ting leded your leg get when he started over the weekend talking about deficits and in Bernie's to pie in the Sky Hi with the socialism's and such I want some credit for the fact that the the only two politicians in this recent cycle that I have grudgingly said even moderately legal things about have been people to Judge Mitt Romney and they had a good week. y'All I mean seriously Mitt Romney out there not only voting his his conscience in a way that I thought did him credit but also really expertly planning the media. Roll out of that thing and I know that some people took that as has more evidence that he's bad but I think it's mostly just evidence that he's like excruciatingly competent. And if if I may speak for America briefly excruciatingly rushing. Competent has a certain appeal right now. Also Mayor Pete out there talking about legalizing all drugs on the debate stage and and then following it up by saying yes. I really meant all drugs now. He's talking about debt. He's not a libertarian. He sucks they all suck. Everyone's sucks but still. My two guys are not doing badly right now. I would like to think that they represent some kind of like future. Change Movement Libertarian. -Tarian moment they don't but still not too bad however the Judge Berge Twenty twenty. What I do want though is that? I can't believe we made it this far into to this podcast already without just saying out loud the phrase the Joe Biden said out loud which is to call someone. A lying dog faced pony any soldier at an official events. I like I would. What is it we're talking about? Biden is like return to normalcy. What is that? That's pretty normal for joe abided but now for America would Joe Biden has been America for decades anytime. He doesn't sniff hair. It's a victory for American dog. Faith Pony soldiers. I would have used that as the clip Catherine I feel your implied rebuke however former host of this very roundtable podcast. Andhra Heaton who. I muscled aside in a power grab was there and he tweeted out which I retweeted as well That people are taking the quote out of context that it was and I get it was actually talking about his class and then he just meant it like you. Rascal like he meant it in a way. That actually was just kind of like you. Hey Hey buck aroo. I'm coming for you. It's still krant so cray What's up pop Nick you referenced. At the top and I want to pursue this kind of Biden's it's an willingness to go after Bernie in fact even had a huggy huggy moment this. There's been a lot of commentary that I am intrigued. By which is basically what Democrats are doing and have been doing up until this moment in in the two thousand twenty Democratic primary mirrors What Republicans were doing and not doing with the rise of trump in twenty fifteen and twenty sixteen which is to say? Instead of attacking the weird interloper they are terrified of his following and followers in sort of like keeping gloves off situation. And before. You know it. It's Kinda too late. What what is your Alicea that and then you know maybe like even their own outsider status what that might say about? The party's how do you how. How do you take that first off? I mean let's stop with the fiction. That Bernie as an outsider. He's been in Congress one in one role or another for. You're twenty five thirty years into the party. Not I know. But Eddie's run for President I mean that'd be like saying Jesse Jackson as an outsider because he never wins the nomination or something like that. I think it's really central to Bernie to be like. Oh look at me. I'm such an outsider that I'm at fucking every Democratic Party. The thing that's been going on forever and having said that I go back to something that Peter touched on. I think it's really interesting and exciting to Z.. Non Establishment type characters like a Hillary Clinton like a Joe Biden assailing to easy victory. I mean Hillary ellery obviously got the nomination to Hook and Crook in two thousand sixteen but Biden is banned blocked here and I think it's pretty compelling. Oh he he's GonNa tell about South Carolina and Super Tuesday and all of that. That may come true. But he's he has to do the equivalent of whatever somebody somebody does after they've had as much plastic surgery as he has to sweat into the nomination but it is it's it's you know in two thousand sixteen ecksteen in that campaign trump destroyed the Republican party or the Republican establishment. None of the you know where to a point where loyal Republicans lukens were even taking somebody like Rand Paul as like the person they wanted over somebody like Donald trump because trump is too much of an outsider. I think we're seeing that in the Democratic Party and for for me that gives me hope. Not Because Bernie is better than Biden or Biden is better than trump or anything like that. I don't think that's actually true. And I don't think it's meaningful all but when you see these major parties going through connections trying to maintain control over their own process. I think everybody wins. And at that's the beginning of the end of the duopoly in the form that it has been locked into for about fifty years so more power to all of us petered. Did you share Nixon. For when scruffy outsiders takeover the week hosts of political parties or. Are you a Jonathan Rouch. `institutionalised I think think there's some good things and some bad things. It is a useful demonstration of the weakness and the awfulness of the duopoly and the two party system when Bernie any sanders and Donald trump and up being the nominees. And I think next totally right that when you see that happening that is a sign of the collapse APPs of those institutions and and and it is a sign that people are figuring out that they don't work and they don't provide what people want from them. However I also think that that it's it's kind of a bad situation when we end up with the links the legacy of that duopoly still in place because the institutions? We have are designed around the expectation that there will really only be two political parties that matter and that each one of them will produce a presidential nominee and that they will also vie for power in Congress and the the two chambers. And that then what you end up with our extreme candidates who like Bernie Sanders Who now I mean Bernie Sanders if he is the nominee? You have to presume that even if you think that trump is likely to is more likely to win he has a reasonably good chance winning the presidency. He is at worst the second most likely person to be president. You know starting in January of twenty twenty one and I don't want Bernie Bernie Sanders to be president. I think that someone like Bernie Sanders is dangerous and similarly I think that Donald Trump was quite is is remains quite dangerous As a as someone who holds more political power than any certainly any other person in this country arguably person in this world and so when you have a system that where the duopolies kind of hanging on there and we're still forced to play by its rules in many ways but it is producing bad results than you get this kind of institutional breakdown that that leads to a decline entrust. Nick has written about this. I think I think that's what you're seeing here with with the nomination processes in the last couple of years and that leads to bad governance And it leads to Kind of two large-scale social risk is. Maybe the way that I would put it in that candidates like Donald Trump and Bernie sanders especially with the presidency where you have so much power bound up in the discretion of one individual Who often ignores the limitations on his or her power? There's just a huge amount of risk in nominating. Somebody who is just like the the screw it I I hate everybody else. Let's just try something crazy. Different Mold and that. That's what we're seeing in and I do worry about the long term potential bill risks that come with a Catherine I was on Our good pal. Kennedy's show last week and it's always fun to in the Green Room. Watch the displays of Fox business and Fox all they were talking about two things one. Is that damned rat. Bastard liberal all sell out Mitt Romney and then the other was this amazing amount of kind of gleeful crocodile. Tears over the way that the establishment to screwing over Bernie Sanders it seems very obvious that Republicans The president in particular. Love love to cheer on Bernie at this point joined whether they think it's because he is himself kind of divisive figure or that he's beatable or whatnot but all of this plus the Iowa Tobacco and the recrimination that came after it. Got Me thinking like it doesn't take much to rip the mask off of the Democratic Party right now and realize how much they all. Oh hate each other. I imagine. Imagine if it comes down to a Bernie versus the Bloomberg versus mayor. Pete could that like it. It's it might not be possible to unify a Democratic Party around that. No I mean the idea that those three men are all in the same party is the strongest longest possible case. You can make four. We shouldn't only have two parties right like that's crazy. Those those three people share only the thinnest ernest of unifying agendas. The country that they envision the you know the there are three totally different timelines. And the idea that the idea that we're going to sort of have to shove them all into the same box and then only one of them gets to come out a winner in the end is is a total indictment of this system. I will say like like I have been Like you watching the kind of to me. The most interesting conflict is the class warfare versus identity. Politics Politics Debate But that's not really what those three guys are. Even there are so many other rifts and divides inside the party that you can't like will doesn't it seem like the class warfare folks basically one that the identity aeriens various lumbergh is the nominee right. I mean you know it's it's it's awfully hard to make the case though. Of course this is something about taxing rich people in the whole thing identity. The strong identities Matt's written in this The people who ran the the campaigns that are most focused on I dared identity in issues have dwindled in this field. Yeah but but I don't think that they are. I don't think you should count them out as a force within the party. I think that it so happens in this field right now. That's how it shook out but like identity identity. Politics still is the bread and butter of most of the mid Tier Democratic activist pool. And you know there. That's why you see this desire to screw Bernie. That's why you see all these weird institutional tensions but I do. I do just want to kind of come back around also to this point about its Chapo apoe trip house versus Pod Save America all the way down. God Wow that's a dark dark vision. No I wanted to come back around to the The total shamelessness looseness of the Romney. Romney is a leftist condemnation Because they really like the pure kind of you know post-facto reasoning like the the the rationalization of these positions. After the fact the instant turn against him he would have been hero. If you'd voted the other either way whatever would have said anything else. Also Alan Dershowitz. Do we want to take a minute and talk about what happened there. What happened there so now anders? What's his testimony at? The I think the second or third to last day of the impeachment hearings. He sort of Dershowitz like he did he. He did this thought. Experiment out loud in the middle of one of the most most important moments maybe of his life and sort of said well technically if the president believed achieved if a president hypothetical president believed that he was acting in the national interest by ensuring his own election. If you believed that being elected was a crucial part of securing the national interest and if that motivation was mixed with other motivations that would not itself be corrupt now first swale. Everyone interpreted it in a much less subtle way. Just as like literally Dershowitz ratifies the Sun King Right. It was just like Oh. If you think you're on election election is good. Let's say like we're done. But the fact that every single Democrat got up on their high horse and said like. I can't believe that he would suggest is that. In executive could equate their own interests with the interests of the country. We would never do anything like that. And to even say that out loud is frankly ridiculous. Meanwhile everyone does something like that every day. Are you not enjoying though the The way that both Mitt Romney and John Bolton Heroes of the Republican Party first class absolutely. I'll become like it's it's. It's like one of those things where the writers room it's like. We got to season seven. We never thought we'd get here here. We didn't have enough story planned like well. I guess I guess our our our lead characters are now bad. I mean just in general just the sentence Mitt Romney votes against against one article of impeachment of Donald Trump like. That's a sentence already that ten years ago I mean we keep saying this but it really keeps being true ten years ago. That's it is one of the least impressive people in American politics I think you know whatever your partisan affiliation as he was he was a terrible terrible presidential candidate who had one good debate now. He was anti immigration debate announced Obama and then pushed out in the subsequent conflicts conflicts with Obama. He was terror he would not even admit whether or not his law that obamacare was drafted off of had an individual mandate. He wouldn't wouldn't name a single program that he would cut if he were elected president. And then he's now doing the profile encouraged thing where it's like. He's in the most thinking thinking you want to cut funding for most it like all fourteen. It was actually maybe just his personal donation profiling auto in where it's like. Oh look at me. I'm standing up to the president who I lobbied for a job and I was asked I kissed. And he's comes from a state that is resolutely anti-trump trump. He's the safest politician in the world. He is spoiled milk. All the way down. And I I it just it beggars my mind that anybody is taking any time to think about a guy who's as inconsequential as Mitt. Romney and literally right here. I'm in the room with the Knicks. Metaphorically I mean we've talked about this before but I just cannot. I cannot disagree more like that. Is that is a story. You could tell about Mitt Romney but another story. You could tell which I think is at least an equal contender for the truth. And the one that I find find more compelling is that he is you know he's a politician again and therefore has made compromises and has said things that are suboptimal and has you. You know kissed us in various scenarios but his story of I. He has a vision of the Republican Party. He tried to win the presidency with that vision key failed. He went back into his corner and thought about what he could do. That would still help. Make that vision reality even under Donald Donald Trump. He is clearly an extremely competent and serious person he clearly is like a principal guy. Who's thought deeply about these questions? I don't share all all of his principles and he sometimes has waffled on them right again. He's a politician but I the idea that he is somehow particularly bad strikes strikes. Me As as Brung he is. He is better than average for a politician at the very least to. I wrote a long Feature on Mitt Romney when he was running in two thousand twelve and spent a lot of time going through his record as Massachusetts Governor. I guess I kind of agree with both of you in that Mitt. Romney was Pretty bad on a lot of measures as governor now You know in some ways. He was technocratically competent but I think in ways that were largely the negative and and and did not produce good policy in particular with the Massachusetts predecessor to Obamacare. And then when he ran he ran in this way. That was weird Lee Sort of non ideological and non sort of he didn't it was like he didn't have really all all that many political principles except the consulting World Vision of. Let's just do stuff that works. And he didn't have a big idea for war. What America American culture or politics should be but at the same time he was obviously incredibly accomplished in the private sector? Somebody who was really a a very good manager a thought deeply about how how markets work about how to add value About Labor about all this stuff and he was also somebody who was just incredibly personally decent and so I think that's what you're seeing here is that he's not a great politician in a Lotta ways. He's not somebody who we want leading the country and sort of outlining a political vision for how the country should be governed at the same time he somebody who has a kind of great A Real L. moral personal decency and character That comes out in his in his politics and in the way he behaves himself as A. US Senator for we get off Mitt Just just Like to reiterate my ongoing analysis of those who were not on the left who criticise or oppose Trump trump. I always seem to come from Three categories it's the libertarians. Like Justin. Amash it's the neo cons or whatever they call themselves these days the bill kristol's Cels of the world of which none of the avatars in Congress have really opposed trump in any meaningful sense. And it's the Mormons Some of whom have neo-con ish tendency. Some of them. We have libertarian. Tendencies but repeatedly it always comes from those people I wanted to also put a little number on the identity politics conversation Russian a random thing that I track from the moment that had happened was When Elizabeth Warren came out and leaks in an unfavorable way the conversation the private conversation that she'd had with Bernie Sanders in December? Twenty eighteen in which The allegation was that Sanders told her that a woman couldn't win. The president that day was January. Thirteen when His lead over her in the national polls was on average weighted by five thirty eight. A two point. Four percentage entity points. It is now the last time I looked which was yesterday. More than eight percentage points so like the the idea. I identity politics. Hail Mary that she she threw did not make a to the end zone at all not even close it was a it was a pretty remarkable We're going to shift. I I believe To President Trump's posts impeachment victory lap in a moment but first one of our very favorite organizations in the world is the foundation for individual rights in education or fire who work their tails off to defend free speech on college campuses read more about Out them at the fire dot org or by texting the word fire to five to eight eight six but first let me tell you about three outrageous cases. They helped defend Naomi. Naomi was barred by her campus from starting to animal. Rights Club should've called Joaquin Phoenix sister. Mike was blocked from proselytizing about legal pot and Kevin was prevented from handing out copies of the actual constitution. Fire helped all three can read their full stories over at the fire. Dot Org or text. The word fire to five to eight nate six. But here's the gist buyers. Legal advocates successfully defended each student vindicating in the case of the Constitution. Kid The free speech rights of more than one hundred and fifty thousand college students. Well done fire does not care about your politics. It just want students and faculty to be free in expressing them again. Text fire to five to eight eight six six or visit the fire dot org to discover more about their good works. You'll be glad you did all right. One week into the life of the life of the yeah forty fifth president on Monday trump wins the Iowa caucus ninety seven percent to one percent apiece for Bill Weld and Joe Walsh the latter of whom Actually drops out on Tuesday. Gallup's presidential approval Center register his highest ever approval rating forty nine percent including ninety four percent among Republicans Republicans. Then that night he gives a comparatively restrained if a bit on the reality TV style state of the Union address which is not at all a subtle about about going directly after the black votes. And if you listen to Van Jones pretty successfully so Wednesday he gets acquitted. Thursday he delivers just bonkers. Ha-had Yabu from the White House Friday. He show Willie Fires a lieutenant. Colonel Alexander Van Moxham obviously on twitter weirdly. Fires his twin brother other as well as ambassador Gordon Song and transparently for testifying against him then he spends all weekend tweeting like crazy person about like reinstating. Pete rose to the hall of fame and God knows what else Today he is unleashed administration has his annual and annually ignored budget proposal and To the top it off a hosting a town hall in New Hampshire Tonight and I'm already exhausted just reading this very small selection of the president's activities for the last week. I'm just going to throw it out there to so you people. What is one random impression that you get? From the present at the United States performance trials tribulations of last week next Hugo first. One one is that it is totally his election. To lose he has a comparatively good record to run on in terms of economic growth and various other types of opportunities as and the one thing especially if he's running against Bernie Sanders or and Elizabeth Warren. You know he's he's got an easy path to the basket Matt and all all he has to do is keep his most awful tendencies under wraps which is going to be very difficult for him. Obviously I think the pitch towards it's black voters and and to a lesser grain ads and things like that of Latino voters is actually more a bid for centrist white voters who are are you might Who are not going to be totally into any of the Democratic candidates but also don't want to vote for somebody who is clearly racist and as a result the way that he makes those plays and talks about the positive benefits of his presidency for for minorities? Well make that a little bit easier easier. But and I think that's a smart play. Actually and it might help peel off you know. A couple of percentage points of ethnic and racial minorities that vote it overwhelmingly in the other direction. So I I mean I think what you're seeing here is a guy coming into some level of competency Right at at the right moment. Uh Uh Superman. What's one impression that you pull out of Trump's last seven days. I don't know if I agree with Nick. That the litany of of things you described there is a a sign of a president coming into competency and also what are we should worry a little bit a vote against just a little bit of its three and a half years into the presidency and he's finally become incompetent on the week that he delivers a bunch of crazy rants and fires fires his enemies. Nobody that I wanted to actually who cares about vin been and all that kind of stuff I care about firing vote. Fetch you uh-huh no you asked who cares about cotton. I care about the president's Using power of his office to punish his enemies go ahead sooner. Yes the actual thing that I wanted to point out. With just the the transparent package -ness of GOP centrists in the era of trump and in particular Susan Collins who who explained her vote to acquit trump. By saying I do not believe that the House has met its burden that the president's conduct however flawed warns the extreme step of immediate removal from office. Decision is not whether you like or dislike this president or agree or pose with or oppose his policies It's about whether the charges meet the high constitutional standard of treason. Bribery high crimes. Misdemeanors okay. Fine that's actually. I think I could come up with a disagreement with that But I think it's completely fair in fact to vote to acquit on that but she followed up by explaining we you know I think trump has learned his lesson. He's learned from this case and and that trump will be much more cautious in the future and won't stop the kind of bad behavior that got all of this started and then of course what does he go and do. Just a few days later is to Is that He. You know kind of started out like this maniac rant from the White House and Fires a bunch of people bowl for political reasons a transparently while pretending that that's not what he's actually doing exactly the stuff and an end and collins leaks to the New York Times that she had warned. The White House against is doing this and that she was very disappointed. She knew trump wasn't gonNA change. She had no reason to think that he had learned any sort of lesson she gave this just completely hack rush pretext for her vote because She wanted to vote with her party. And this is why goes back to our Mitt Romney conversation. What Mitt Romney did you agree or disagree with it? But it was an actual act of a bridge and bravery in certain ways which is that? He voted his personal conscience. And did what a US. Senator is supposed host to do in an impeachment case which is not to simply say well. I am a pass through for the poll numbers that we're getting out of my state instead. I'm here to exercise. Is My own independent judgement. He faced no reprisals for his vote. So yeah I mean this is where I fail to say. Wait he has been then disinvited from CPAC so we. It's an extra week. That's a gift what she hasn't attended since two thousand thirteen say. Everybody is a hacker. Anything but it's like he made the safest possible choice that he could do. You know it's like He. He pays no cost for this other now. Other people are talking about Mitt Romney. What an honorable man? I think there's a difference between saying relative to other Republican senators. It was easier for Romney amny to make this choice and say it was the safest possible choice he could do clearly. The safest possible choice for Romney was just go along with the rest of his party and not say anything and just vote to acquit Donna. Surly in Utah. His state. I UTA was not going to rebuke him for for for acquitting. The president along with the entire rest of Romney is pretty much. The King of Utah for life He's the King of Utah but he's facing even as we speak Nick Bills in the Utah Legislature of one that would allow voters the chance to directly. Recall the US. Senator There Yudo senators and another one. That's official censure of him he had a lot of You Hind closed doors meetings and tongue a wagging it was not a pleasant week for Mitt Romney in Utah. Think it's worth pointing pointing that out as well again. Like he's not brave in the sense of like hiding Anne Frank in his attic brave but like you know it was not this was not the path of least his houses are large and he has a lot of thirty case. PUT A lot. That's who voted to You know to cancel. Donald Trump were voting out of principle. They were not also at lockstep with their parties. I mean I don't even I fail to see how this is. Is You know a moment. Oh meant to be like. Oh yes finally. We get something good out of a politician. I am not sure anyone's positing that necessarily but Katherine what's one takeaway from president. Donald Trump's last seven days of activity there so so many so much room for activities I was just scrolling through his his twitter. Feed as we were talking and I realize this is like the smallest small ball. I could possibly offer you. But here's here's what I'm GonNa give you a series of tweets just talking smack about Larry Sabato like this is baby actually good I guess what trump silver lining here. And and. Here's what I've got is Larry. Sabato is much better. Ah Giving you the answer. After everything is finished and the final result is in then he is telling you what's going to happen because in fact not doesn't have a clue. Donald Trump is not wrong. That the whole purpose of Larry Sabato is that people like we need a quote from Larry. Sabato that will say the conventional Israel was a bit after the fact uncontroversial. and Larry Sabato is like I have got you covered and it's like it's such a perfect example of Donald. Trump is like a moderately astute viewer of Cable News. Like that's that's a good point. Why why do you guys think? He's his approval. Writing is going up. I mean is it just that you know more and more people are because we were at and again I say this not as not as somebody don throw clear. You love him manage his. I hope you're talking to somebody else. Man I'm just asking asking though like you know what what you know. Everything is is. I mean. This is what you're the most pro-trump anti-trump Guy I've ever met now. Now now I refuse to wrap my personal feelings towards him and his policies intuitive and analysis of whether it is more likely or less likely to win reelection and as of today than as Union speech answers. This question which is that the economy is very good. And that is like a both a sort of boring pundit Larry Sabato would say that kind of thing and also you know. Donald Trump lead with a full thirty to forty minutes of reminding people that the economy me as very good and that was a smart thing to do because the economy is in fact quite good and if we believe as we Have at least said that we believe is the country for a very long time. which is the president has some sort of quasi magical power to make the economy's good that he deserves credit and blame when the markets go up and down? Then that's it. It's a very simple equation. Now of course I think all of us on this podcast know that it's more complicated than that and in fact Donald Trump has done many things that have. I've been good for the economy. But also is waging a trade war that may take a dent out of the economy in the long run and in fact may already be there are cyclical things that happen where the subsequent president benefits from the decisions of the previous president and vice versa So I think it is generally wrong to equate president's actions with the quality of the economy one to one but the fact is the economy is good and the Democrats are thinking about running absolutely crazy socialist donald trump looks okay to the electorate. That just seems like a very simple pull obvious thing and does not require us to do any kind of like fake news real America class war. You know we don't have to do any of that. It could just be three people feel like things are okay at their house right now to answer your question Nick. I think he's gone up recently because Democrats did impeachment bad and and There's a decent track record of when You know the impeaches seem to not do a very good job of the president's accrues some benefit. I don't know if that I wouldn't predict that. That would stay because impeachment is now over except in the mind of Tom. Steyer and maxine waters. There's and a few others so we'll see if that lasts and the other thing too. Catherine's point Larry Sabato a perennial. Point is that traditionally there has been a connection connection between presidential approval ratings and the state of the economy This has not been a traditional president trump himself. Point out Larry Sabato. Oh cannot predict the future. The future based on That usual prediction Starts to look a little dicey although to argue against that points with myself. It's also true that the moment that the financial crisis really hit in two thousand eight was the death knell of the John McCain campaign is the single biggest factor in that election action. was that Barack Obama was seen as the person who could respond to that crisis well and not John McCain so it can if it goes bad but then Bama also beat Mitt Romney. Everybody was saying based on Economic Indicators Obama was the most vulnerable incumbent in es so like the the tethering of of Your of Economy and presidents is is changing Than it does normally. There's been a lot of them. We've referenced a lot of crazy easy amounts of news that everyone's that the dogs of the media are chasing squirrels of news around over the past week this way too much news. Basically between the Super Bowl and the New Hampshire primary. It's insane ten days stretch of alcoholism. One thing that Libertarians are fond of doing is pointing out other stuff. That's important is drinking. Yes but so I want each of us to go around and points at some bit of news. That is of importance that has happened since last week. Convened together Catherine wanamaker. I also am going small on this one but I think are particularly good Outrage Bit of news which is Baltimore County just casually admitting that it hasn't been recycling the glass that it's collected for seven years so like this is this isn't a folks make sure to recycle so this is the kind of thing that is you know if it weren't true it would sound like a crazy thing that like John. Tierney made up when he was high. Because it's it's such a dent out of the Orthodoxy of of recycling specifically alien also just Symbolic Environmental Acts Baltimore County again collecting glass in single stream recycling so everyone's just dumping it into their bins. Turns turns out. That's a terrible way to recycle glass. It gets dirty. It's not usable They've been checking it for seven years and when asked hey. Do you think maybe you could tell people to stop up putting glass in the recycling county officials explicitly say well. We don't want people to get out of the habit of doing the ritual of recycling Michael because maybe someday we will figure out once again how to make the recycling of filthy glass profitable. That's ridiculous that is ridiculous that is it's such a classic case of a little bit of everyone's time everywhere. Just being casualty disposed of because no single person is could he be angry enough about it to make it stop. This still won't stop at. This news has not resulted in Baltimore County being like yeah. We're very sorry. Please stop recycling glass. The policy policy remains unchanged. It's shocking we should be angry. Recycling is garbage. The End Nick what's literally garbage in this case literally garbage yes neck. What's a bit of news I it's it's not a hidden story but I think the the complete fuck up in counting the Iowa Caucus votes is one of the reasons? Why trump You know looks better by comparison because the Democratic Party insists on putting a lot of stock into you know the Iowa caucuses and with an incumbent the Republicans don't have really anything to do there but it's As I called it last before the caucuses Iowa's garbage state. The caucus system is garbage. They created an APP. That was a piece of crap And so you get this weird outcome where nobody really understands. What's going on other than all of the Bernie rose and and add ladies are more pissed off than they ever were which is saying something because they did get robbed of a clear result? That probably would've put the guy in in I am is really. It is revealing moment because Democrats are running they consistently run on managerial competence. The idea that they can design systems that work and then they designed this completely inscrutable insane. Caucasus them combined it with technology that they didn't test I and that didn't work and it completely blew up in their faces and just kind of reveals exactly how bad they are at running the sorts of systems that they are saying we need to implement nationally and this picks up on what Catherine is talking about which is a smaller cut but an important one. which is that you have the governments you know or people effectively acting as government meant telling you a story which gets revealed as bullshit and then they're like okay? Well let's just get onto the next thing and it leads into the other thing. That is actually happening tomorrow. Which I think is great as rand? Paul is co-chairing Hearings into the costs and benefits of the Afghanistan war based on the revelations in Washington impose from last December. Shuji important and that to me is the mega story of the past couple of months at really just kind of you know it was was there for a second. You know where the Washington Post had thousands of pages of documents that showed in detail how the American government started lying about Afghantistan and and the possibilities of success or even that we were pretending nabet definition of success for decades now and this this all adds up and this is part of the reason why trump is a viable politician out because he kind of admits with a wink and a nod that he's crooked and that he's no different than the other people other that he can he can make something out of it In a way and he's not going to be applied. Just add onto that that again. I found myself nodding most vigorously along at the Democratic Debate Elizabeth Warren when talking about Afghanistan. I think she's very eloquent. And I believe correct act although I could be wrong that What we're doing there is pointless? Me Should Stop Come Home Peter. What's a bit of news? That wasn't covered very much. Over the past week that you think is nonetheless less newsworthy or Worth the tension of our dedicated and wonderful reason roundtable listeners. On Thursday of last week attorney. General William Bar are the top law enforcement official in the country. One of president. Trump's biggest defenders said that the US government should consider taking quote a controlling stake in European countries Nokia and Ericsson in order to Thwart CH- Chinese five g technology was basically saying that the government should own these companies that it should own the means of production and and so in an in a presidential election year in which the Republican president is running totally reasonably in most ways against socialism socialism and against possibly a self declared socialist. You have a top. Republican official. Actually proposing that the government quasi nationalize and industry Speaking of Socialists. I will choose as my story. That didn't get a lot of coverage got some was that a leading presidential candidate of the Democratic Party Bernie. Sanders said that he would legalize marijuana nationwide on day. One the presidency. They want to legalize all of marijuana on day. One which I think is interesting in two ways that cut against each other one one. Is that it kind of just shows The fact that that wasn't newsworthy. Show that yes. It was a busy Newsweek But also favoring marijuana legalization is no longer anger either a career killer or even all that noteworthy anymore which is a remarkable sign of progress on the other hand. It's also a super alarming alarming. That someone waving around. I'm just going to void rewrite existing laws. I mean with a pen phone. There's laws on the book. Those law ask ask. The control of substance is a law. Just make it go away this law. That's lor is but there is. There is awesome ambiguity about this scheduling marijuana and whether or not the president can kind of unilaterally dictate about that a lot and and I think that it would be great for the president to aggressively lead to the rescheduling. And he he or she can do that. Legalizing it nationwide. Just sort of flippant attitude towards Executive Power and sadly one that is absolutely mirrored by pretty much everybody in the with any standing left in the democratic race. Just everyone's out competing one another with all the crazy stuff they're going to do in the first one hundred minutes of the presidency okay. We've come to our last hundred minutes of this podcast cast which means Discussion of what we all have been consuming. I presume that some of us were consuming at least parts of the Academy Awards last night. So I wanna go I I in just talking and defending a Joaquin Phoenix's absolutely crazy speech Like book in that. With trump's victory lap in the White House is like America's integrate place right now. What I liked about it was that it was actually voluntarily bowl and weird crazy? He's a haunted dude. He's coloring really far outside the lines. US talking all kinds of stuff about like the inseminating cows and stealing their babies in their cries of anguish I kinda it just loved it Not that I agreed with a lot of it although I did agree with apart. That didn't get a lot of play. I don't think which is that. He went against canceled culture at the end and talked about the necessity for redemption and compassion and empathy and giving people second chances all of which ethnic or messages that America needs to hear. If not necessarily early in a four minute absolutely rambling crazy speech By best actor nominee love anyone is also part of the opening non opening monologue by the Chris. Rock and Steve Martin who started the show by saying why isn't there a host twitter twitter Anyone else have an Oscar related one to attack onto that Catherine I presume you're watching some of the dresses and the ladies Y- I definitely watched zero minutes but as always went online and looked at these slide shows of the dress says not just on the lady that Arrow billy porter as always dominating the fashion headlines with totally cuckoo bananas outfit that was beautiful beautiful and awesome and I continue to be happy that we live in district one of them. The Hunger Games are going great for us and and The rise of multicolored hair eyelashes. That are actually feathers and hats. That have police on them. And now apparently a giant skirt modelled old after Buckingham. Palace's ceiling or something. Yes to all of it. But mostly yes to Janelle monae coming dressed as always as a sexy bisexual actual robot from the future. Never don't do that but she's the nick. What have you consuming sometime in the last two weeks? I went to Z.. Parasite which ended up winning best picture as well as I guess. Best Foreign Language Picture and it's phenomenal. I know You and Peter. I think have talked about that in the past it's It's a great movie and it was. I think I in the end I could give two shits about who wins at Oscar. And who doesn't but it's save really good picture and I'm kind of happy to see a picture like that which is about ideas and it's about class and his about hierarchy Takes home the You know the statue over a kind of the ninetieth iteration of something about world. War One. Isaac were passed the age of epoch. You know historical epic and it's much more interesting to see a movie. I like parasite I. I think it's a really really great Film and it's similar in a way to get out or US new Jordan peele movies that kind of play with genre as well a serious idea so really realize that you just called it A picture like Super Grandpa style like we should. We should be using that partially because the concept of like. What's a movie what's film home? What to show is all broken down and we begin to say an old man voice like I went to the patients like that Speaking of which my complaint about the Oscars is that the greatest greatest or a tour of the Word Picture Robert Evans of who died a was part of the in Memoriam in the in the Maurienne thing they they they coupled people yup like let us let us have our crying on the couch moments with the individuals not like Ago Confusion of two people. Sooner than what did you consume. Well well I I see I consumed the entire Oscars and in particular. I consumed a parasite director bunk. Julian hose great great acceptance attendance speeches all of which were translated from Korean. The only things that he said in English were basically. Martin Scorsese Quentin Tarantino are great. Love those guys now. I'm going to get really drunk and you know what over again you know what. That's the same. I A big mood as the kids. Say again a for granting the fact that none of this really matters I was happy to see. Martin Scorsese Sese Or and the Irishman get shut out effectively because it really was not a meaningful movie in any way shape or form. And if you know if if the Martin Scorsese has move aside so parasite at other movies like that can rise. It's just like the nick. Nick always wants to have an Irishman on the screen. Let's pick another. It's a French goodbye. It's lucky I disagree about the Irishman. As you know but I really loved parasite and in in particular. I just want to put in a word for the movie as not as a great piece of social cultural filmmaking. Even political filmmaking thinking and it's been adopted by a lot of people are like Oh this is a movie for our times because it's about inequality and social class and it's basically the Bernie Sanders message in movie form. And I think that's a really really shallow in a kind of inadequate way of reading the movie it's actually an incredibly humane film about social structures and about the invisible systems that serve surround all of us and the ways that That we kind of don't know what systems We are enacting and we are trapped in and movie. That isn't just sort of like rich. People are bad and terrible and eh it's actually really quite empathetic towards its towards its rich people and You know And it's it's a movie that is that is also just sort of really elites. It's sad in a lot of ways but it's also really just delightfully vicious in the way it kind of attacks everyone And everything and just sort of suggests guests that the only way out of our broken systems. Isn't you know to have You know there isn't like let's it's not like elect Bernie Sanders or pass campaign finance reform. It's like blow up the whole thing And an end the rate and just sort of like find some way to completely destroy everything An escape And it's too there's real you kind of Like there's a deep humanity in all of his films even if he's coming from a sort of a a a a place of you know leftist class warfare right you'd did. He also directed Snow Piercer. And some stuff like that That I think is Really resonates and is is really wonderful to see in film in that. He's asking questions rather than just trying to supply ants. I think they you know the basic to I. I think you're to charitable towards the wealthier people in that Scenario Peter Bought Right. It's it's incredible to see a movie that has actually treating kind of ideas in a serious way. It's really good at it and it's it's great on on a kind of superficial plot level and it's fucking awesome when you start to think about it and it's easier to deal with a in America because it's it set in Korea I suspect that if that movie is probably been made about America many times if we just fail to fails to register with us because it's too close to home but I don't know it reminded me a lot of the early nineteen eighties John Carpenter films which were all these great just brutal little Genre films but stuff like They live and Escape from New York and the thing which were all very clearly social political parables about their time but are also just really enjoyable as movies about Kurt. Russell you know fighting off crazy monsters. I don't I don't think those rose to the level of seriousness in terms of Of what they were critiquing but yeah I I agree you know in the main on that and and again it's they escape from New York doesn't get taken as seriously in America partly because it's it is American but I just a counter that the thing is actually the along with idiotic crecy the The the big predictor of our current of political moment. I and I would also like to single out for PLO brim The the Journalist Alec mcgillis who last night's said a one thing. I'm still trying to figure out about parasite why wasn't the great film. About extreme income equality made in the country that suffers from from it the most by which he presumably meant the United States which is such a dumb tweet that even James follows said because because that would be China in response but anyways that's all the The Red China Bathing that we have time for here on the reason roundtable podcast thank listening. Stay tuned next week and also I'll go to olive reason dot com slash podcasts to see all of our offerings including the reason interview with Nicholas On Wednesdays that's it thank you. Hopefully the news will slow down. I and we'll have fun the end.
Jim Acosta on Reporting on Donald Trump's White House (Live) | Larry Wilmore: Black on the Air
"Correct. Hey guys, welcome to the ringer podcast network its list Kelly, the co host of ti-time, your favorite celebrity, and pop culture podcasts have moved out of channel thirty three and into their very own feed called bring her dish on ringer dish. You can still listen to jam session on Wednesdays and teach him on Fridays. We'll be launching a brand new show that will publish every Monday episode so far included a heated debate on witch celebrity Chris rain supreme and a social media, deep dive on the big little lies cast, so to hear more about the Royal family and our current celebrity obsessions. Subscribe to ringer dish on apple Spotify or every get your podcasts. Thanks, jen. Thanks. Awesome. His such a great. Can you guys hear? Excellent Jim, your book, the name of people such Roenick title. Really, like Greek tragedy tragedy. Episodes. What I was gonna go man. We could only joke. And so why would you right? Does this is happening to us in real time you decided to put it down on paper? Right. I did. And I you know, I was explaining that folks, tell me to write a book. All right, a book, but no, the, the more serious side of this, and not to get too serious from the gecko is that I strongly believe, and I think I'm staying in my lane as a straight news reporter and saying that the president of the United States should not refer to press should not refer reporters as the enemy of the people, and it's a simple as. So wanna way, some potables. Yeah. So in a way, I kind of looked at this as reclaiming that expression. And, you know, my, my sense of it is, is that if it's if it's okay for the president to refer to us as the enemy of the people, who's next, what part of American society, does he referred to as the enemy of the people next. And I don't think we want to go down that road. You know, I feel very strongly about what I do as a reporter every day. I think my job is to give people the news, that's basically it. But these days when the president of the United States, it was recently found by the Washington Post utter ten thousand roughly ten thousand false or misleading statements that that well. It's you know, it's a lot, you know, and it may seem higher. Maybe the numbers a little higher. I guess if I some estimates but it's put us in a position where we're fact checkers in real time, and that under the president's skin upsets is team and his supporters. But, you know, my sense of it is, is that we can't let that get in the way of the job that we have to do. So I really want to give folks, a sense of what we do on a daily basis. What we've been through and hope at the end of the day, the folks have a better appreciation for I, I think is a very vital part of American society, and our democracy, completely and reading the book, it's funny because it takes you back and you remember how not just something happens every day, almost like something happens every hour in this. That's true in this aga- that we've been watching hang you started. When did you start following the Trump campaign, this was in January of twenty sixteen so rock Obama gave his lasted the union address? I walked out of the gates of. The White House and I did not go back to the White House until after Donald Trump became president after he was elected president. Right. So that was that was still that was after that was right before the Iowa caucus right before. Okay. So what was your feeling? When you first got close to Trump. Did you have a sense of him then that changed right away or stay the same for while? Did you have an immediate sensitive at that time? Well, I remember, you know, it's interesting that you wanna you wanna start there because I remember following them around at some of the normal stops that reporters would go to with candidates, and there was a, a pizza place, as I recall, an Iowa that he stopped in and his his security team was awfully confrontational with us. And it seemed to be almost a tone, set from the beginning for my standpoint that, wow. These guys are a little more rough than other, you know, candidates and other candidates and their teams that I've covered in the past. But the thing that was interesting about Donald Trump from the gecko that he loved the coverage as I write in the book he. Loves the coverage, but he hates the scrutiny. And so, you know, he would take our questions at press conferences. He would do these little occasional one on ones with us out on the campaign trail. But once you started poking areas he didn't like, right? That's when he would lash out at us. And you know what? My sense of it is, is that, you know, things obviously escalated over time during the campaign. He would call the dishonest dues media. The disgusting news media, and so on. And then he rolled that act into the Oval Office and it turned into fake news and the enemy of the people and he hasn't really turned back since then what was the what do you think was the turning point for you, and your ups evasion of Trump early on? What was the point where you because there was a point where people weren't taking them seriously? Right. They come on. Seriously Trump, you know, this is gonna work, but then it's lowly started to change wind for you, as a journalist, you say, you know, we need to really pay attention to this. Well, it, it, it really happened Larry before I even got out there on the campaign, Donald Trump announced his campaign for the presidency and referred to Mexican immigrants as rapists. And krimmer. Annals. That's how he launched it. That's how we launched a campaign. I said, you know what? This is something we've never seen before in American politics. And then, you know, later on that year he called for a ban on Muslims coming in the United States. And if you look at the polls at that time he was leading the Republican field. And you know, it basically stayed this way, this dynamic state in this in the same kind of place, right up until he clinched the nomination and my sense of it was during that time, even in the early days of his campaign, that we were dealing with this sort of nationalist, movement that we've never really seen before. I remember going to Trump rallies, and he would make fun of Mitt Romney, and I'm thinking to myself, this is the party's previous nominee and making fun of this guy. And in his own party, as in the crowd is going while they're loving, he would go off on the Bush family, and Donald Trump crowds, go wild, and. Anything like that before that has. So, like, puzzled me. Yeah. That his crowds Republican crowds. But I don't even know if we can call them Republican crowds. I think is base has their own identity. It seems like the trumpets party. Yes. I can't imagine people cheering that type of you know, rhetoric in volatility and hostility about their own party. Yeah. Absolutely. I write about this in the book and Mitt Romney at one point was so concerned about it. He gave the speech at the university of Utah, where he said, that Trump is a con man. And, you know, all that is voters are going to end up with a lousy hat and, you know, running joke. It was a rally Dajo. You know, and I remember covering Mitt Romney back in twenty twelve and he was this, you know, people might not like politics, but he was decent. Fatherly figure and to see the Republican party go from somebody who is like your grandfather to somebody who is Donald Trump. Let's cut to the it was, it was astonishing. You know, others murderer. You know it was he was it was just an incredible thing. And I, I kept waiting for the Republican party to say, wait a minute. We can't do this anymore. You know, Trump would say I can shoot somebody on Fifth Avenue and get away with it. You could say that John McCain, wasn't a war hero and get away with it. And we were all out on the campaign trail, thinking, eventually, this is all going to catch up with them. And then it never did. Yeah. That was the thing that got me when he said that about John McCain, and he said, it would such glee. And he was also being defensive. And I thought has numbers are gonna PUM after that and nothing happened. No nothing happened. What an I talk about this in the book, one of the things that his advisors picked up on that when Trump would go out there and say these outrage. -rageous outlandish things. The news media would flock to it. You know, we were chasing the so-called, bright, shiny objects. And, you know, they thought let's keep doing this and Donald Trump's at all. Let's this is working. Let's keep doing. This and it did drive, the new cycle on a regular basis to the point where Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio Ted Cruz, and those guys said, we can't get on TV because this guy is driving the story day, and, you know, folks will say, well, did you guys give him too much attention in too much coverage? And so on. I remind folks he was the Republican front runner throughout the almost the entire process. And so the question I ask, is news organization, you know, whereas journalists, how do you not cover the front runner as the front runner? You know, it's sort of like what people ask me now, you know, should you be reporting on the president should we be reporting on the president's tweets. Well, you know, the question speaks volumes should we be reporting on the president, you know, or should we importing on what he says the questions, you know, the question suggests that perhaps we shouldn't because of the things that he says, but we can't stop covering him. He's the president, well C N N's taken a lot of flack from some of their people, I think you mentioned even in your book, Jeffrey Toobin, a mess show us very apologetic. But I get it you know, there's. A crash. She kind of have to cover that crash. That's right. Yeah. But it did is their journalistic regretful nece with some of that, or I think that lessons were learned for sure. And I think what you're gonna see moving forward is you're gonna see less of those rallies covered. And, and, and I think where you're going to see more of. Disappointed. And what you see more of is, you know, we'll go to the rally, we'll go to the correspondent at the rally after over and they'll say, okay, Jim what did he say you know what happened there? And then maybe you know, as a guest with the anchor, they'll be fact checker, we hired this great new fact checker Daniel Dale, from the Toronto Star, people might know who he is. He's kind of social media celebrity now because he is like this fact, check guru. I think he knows Donald Trump's falsehoods, better than Donald Trump does. And I think what you're gonna see moving forward is, you know, savvier coverage of what he does because he does throw this stuff out there. I write of the book, you know, senior White House official one time said to me, you know, Donald Trump rules by creating instability, you know, he, he makes everything on stable around him that way, he controls the chaos, and he was doing it on the campaign trail. And he's doing it now, I, I look at it a little differently to me I feel like he's the WWF president. You know. That's true. Yeah he likes spectacle. It's like, you know, of course he's into his brand, and everything. But those rallies to me what was interesting was the spectacle of it. You know, you're waiting for somebody to get body slam literally, you know in in for complicating punch. Yes, you're looking for confrontation happen, and all those things, you know. And it felt like that then transferred over into his relationship with the press that same type of WWF type of confrontation the way he calls people. It's like you know, he's wrestler, any gives people nicknames. Even you know, it really is those clips of Donald Trump during the days when he was a reality TV star pro wrestling matches and pretending the bodies lamb people pretending to get in fights with folks, and, you know, he has been in observer participant in this kind of reality TV stick for a long time now. So we shouldn't be surprised when we see it on national television as the president of the United States. But, you know, one of the things that I tell folks is that, yes, you know, he, he is sort of pulling these reality TV maneuvers on. On us from time to time, but that doesn't change when we have to do at, at CNN or what we do in the press, we still have to cover this as a serious serious thing. This isn't reality TV, this isn't a joke. These are very important matters that, that, you know, are critical to all of our daily lives into the security and safety of the world. You know, when people ask, you know, does it matter if the president's, you know is honest were should we just take him seriously? Not literally or right now, we have a national security crisis going on with Iran. So, you know, the credibility of the United States. Government is important as turns out when it comes to, you know, is the public going to believe you know, if we're getting to a national security crisis, the public trust which Trump says about, you know, what's happening with Iran if for ten thousand other times, he's been caught and these walkers, and these falsehoods. Do you think Trump has changed or is changing? We help people relate to the presidency. I mean he, he seems to have a different. I mean. May sometimes these things happening. You can't go back. You can't put that genie in the bottle. You know, the way he communicates directly with the public, I think that is a change of Trump has learned, the power of, of communicating directly for good or for bad through Twitter, which I don't know how you guys cover. That is dot easy. How do you how do you cover his Twitter? Because do you look at those as fischel statements or? Ramblings of. Was that was a question during one of the press briefings with Sean Spicer. You know, somebody did ask the question are the tweets considered official statements of the president and Spicer said, yes. Which I'm not sure they really wanted him to say you know they are official statements that. So I mean, I'll just tell people how my day starts my day starts at the crack of dawn, wake up. I look at my phone and they're all these affiliations on my phone. The president's been up tweeting since I before I was awake. And some of those tweets are factually challenged, and the, you know, I'm being diplomatic and we just got started. But, you know, sitting on his gold toilet at three. Or whatever color is. But, you know, this is made us fact, checkers and real time we spent a lot of our time and energy fact checking the tweets fact shaking his statements, and people will say, well, why do you spend so much time doing that? And my question is, will my goodness. What would our sense of the world be, what would our sense of the truth? Be in reality. If we didn't correct the record, you know, ten thousand walkers would be hanging out there as the truth as reality. We can't do that. Yeah. Some of. It's so frustrating for me what I think like, when you say, ten thousand was it the Stalin, quote, where you said, one, one death as a murder a million statistic or something like that. I'm paraphrasing. But it almost seems like Trump is on that with lying, you know, like one fifth is alive, but ten thousand lies. What does that become that becomes his version of reality as oppose? Right. Right. And he has his own version of reality. It seems and I talked to now you have to debate him on his terms, sometimes his version of reality, and people ask, you know, about these press conferences, and how we go back and forth and why is it so conventions and so forth. Well, if the first time you asked the question what you get is a line of BS, you know, you do have to keep poking and prodding, whether it's the president or Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Sean Spicer, and, you know, you can't just take what they say, face value. You know, I take folks back to the very first full day, the administration when Sean Spicer came out there and told everybody that Donald Trump. Had the biggest inauguration crowd size and the history of the country, and he didn't take any questions that day. And we all of us in the press corps. You're like you're sitting where where we were, and he came out and he said this, and we all looked at each other afterwards, and we were like my God. What just happened here? What is going on it, it really rocked our worlds under Obama. You know, the press secretary Josh earnest would come out, or Jay Carney would come out and they were talked for an hour, and it would get to the point where the reporters in the briefing room would say, okay, thanks, Josh. Thanks J. We're done. We're ready to go. Now, we gotta get back to work, and Joshua say, oh, no. Let me take another question. And with with this current crew, you know, we're lucky if we even have a briefing, Sarah Sanders, not had a briefing and over one hundred days she gets she gets paid a lot of money to be a spokesperson for the United States government. How is that accountability? How is that being accountable to the people what she does these days Shogo out? She'll do a live interview with Fox News. And then on. On our way back to office. She might stop and talk to the rest of us for a few minutes. And then go back into office how what world we live in. It's interesting. You brought up the whole Sean Spicer thing with the with the mo-. I find that I lie and unbelievably incredible, I am so an admiration of that lie. He was it was an amazing because we saw the truth. The dance of that lie ships kiss. It's really fantastic. Masterpiece is a masterpiece by because he's he's saying, I don't give a shit what you just saw don't give it shit about the truth shit is going to change your right now. And we know he saw this, this like, when people say, will Hillary lies to Hillary like, like a politician Trump lies like a crackhead. That's the difference. Alcoholic. He challenges reality itself challenges us to fuck with what he just said. And that where God bless you. Mr President newer, my inside voice. It's fantastic. Because thing about this. He comes out. That's as I when he comes out with that he comes out of the gate. He's Yelm, the games changing now changes to bit where you just thought out of my head. That's what he did. That's why this is amazing. This is going to play this and think about all the his the best lies have that quality to they do. It's true saying Trump's best lies, right? And what either Mazen? I mean what, what we noticed at the beginning of all of this was that? I mean, his, his credibility was basically shot on the very first day of the administration. So people are wondering, well, why is it during these briefings afterwards? Why folks, you saw the clips of people rolling their eyes are talking about this before? And they're, you know, montages of April, Ryan my colleagues rolling their eyes. And so on because, you know, a little point, we're, we're in the briefing room. We're supposed to be journalists with bases here, and we can't believe what we're here and you know, and it's like you know, sometimes they they're asking us. You know, are you are you being too contentious and asking these questions? Sometimes we just wanna make sure did we hear that correctly? You know is out. Is that right? And so that is, and then the second part of that, too, is okay. So not only is that out. They've been Trump gets Sean Spicer tube to double down, and he's great. He's got a swallow that thing that big horse pill in his mouth. And, you know, the horse pills sticking up everybody to see everybody knows he had to swallow that crab, you know. Yeah. You can barely even get it out as he saying, and which is another thing because, now he's got his cruise peddling has lines. And, and that's what people lost sight of, as I write in the book, I think was Sarah and Sean law sight of is that they work for the American people. They work for the tax payers. They don't work for the Trump organization. They don't work for Donald Trump, Trump. They're not a contestant on one of his reality shows. They're working for us. And this is reality. You know that was the also the first time. I think you writing your to Kellyanne Conway said, alternative facts. Right. And you say that she actually, I guess she said this to you or somebody that she ashes additional information and I'll turn of. Or was it all additional alternative information, and additional additional facts? Yeah, she just kinda jumbled it all together, but she say she's, I mean she's one of the few people to our credit who sat down with the on the record for this Trump wouldn't do it Seir wouldn't do it. She and Steve Bannon did it Kellyanne Steve, Bannon debt and Kellyanne says she claims she didn't mean to say alternative facts, you meant to say alternative information, and additional facts and they got much together. Now we have slips for reason you have forty slips for a reason, and people can take that with grain of salt. But what I found interesting. And you'll see this also in the book is that she also says, I don't agree with the term the enemy of the people, and she also says, I don't agree with taking kids away from their parents at the border. So I thought it was. Surprising that here's somebody who's very senior White House official disagreeing with the president on multiple different occasions. And saying it out loud to one of his least favourite reporters, so and I found that to be the case Leary throughout the writing of this book and through my reporting CNN is that there are people working inside. Forget the people up on Capitol Hill, or the people working inside, the, the White House who don't agree with what's going on or exhausted by his behavior and his rhetoric and so on the so-called deep state. I don't know if that I don't think that's the deep state as I like to say, if you're talking about the deep state, you're in deep something else. No. I mean, a lot of these folks who come to us Larry are our folks that are I described them as patriotic Americans or people who they see a report is trying to get to the bottom of something and they want to help out now. Are there some folks who are trying to spin us and knife and other, you know, rival inside this chaotic west wing in the back and so on sure there's some of that, that goes on? But you know as. In the book, you know, there's one national security official to me, who said to me that he couldn't tell whether the president was advancing US interests and could not explain why Trump was so cozy with Ladimir Putin and gave him a soccer soccer ball. But I thought that was pretty shocking coming from a national security official working inside the ministration. And, you know, when, when the Ladimir Putin was running for reelection, and March of twenty eighteen Trump wanted to send them clipping in the mail. A newspaper clipping saying, good luck flat. Amir hope you do. Well, you know, this kind of stuff is, we're having fun or joking around here with some of the stuff is really serious, and it's been you know, it's been a heck of a ride trying to keep tabs of it all mainly. Because as you and I were talking about this before we came out here, it's just sort of an exhausting new cycle on after another. But we have no choice. We've got to stay on top of this and your transcripts. Let's interesting, it's hard not to laugh a lot. And this too, is especially. When you're when you're reading the way that you're talking to the president. And when you see his words on the page and your interruptions, are Larry because you're always trying to get to that today to that kind of point, you know, I mean, do you feel let me ask you this personally? Do you feel like you're? How should I say this? Do you feel like you have a partisan view on the way that you ask the president questions? Or do you feel like you're, you're having you want to get to the truth? I think that there are lots of different ways to get at the truth. And I think sometimes you have to poke and prod them and certain places to see if you can get them to break out of their talking points because he even has his own talking. Right. But, you know, one of the things that was astounding to me in this was at the February twenty seventeen press conference. We were going back and forth over the Russian investigation, and the firing of Michael Flynn that astral, skirt visor, and so on. And it was during this press conference where he called me, very fake news. And I thought, okay, well, he's done it again. And then after the press conference is over, I get this phone call in from hope Hicks. One of his top aides. And she goes Jim, I just want you to know that the president thought you were very professional today. And she said the president says Jim gets it. And I think to myself, wait a minute. Five minutes ago. He's calling me, very fake news. And then after the press conference his aid is calling me and saying, Jim gets he's very professional, what that says to me is that this is an act, and I talked to a crushing well. I hope not Larry. I really hope not. I'm trying to say for all. This is. Yeah. No, let's not do that kind of stuff. Trey drags. Where was I in that story there? No, crushes on you. He's. Mukasa very good reporter, that and that also up at that press conference, but my sense of it was is that it started off as this act as this reality TV schtick. And when he found out that we weren't Meatloaf and Rosa and some of the other characters from the frankly, there wasn't. True. That was she. He's just a good point. Might be in there somewhere. Gary, I don't know. Somewhere in there. Probably eating me low. We weren't going along as like characters from the Rentis, and we were saying hold on a second as president. That's not true. I think that's when we started getting under his skin. And I think you know, maybe this was you know what I do wasn't something. He anticipated season two or season, three of the White House apprentice, when did when was the first time he used fake news that term, remember fake news was something, he used for the first time at a press conference in January of twenty seventeen. This was his press conference during the transition at least nine days before he was sworn into office. CNN had just broken the story that the US intelligence community had gone to the president-elect and said, Mr President, the Russians may have compromising information on you this may affect your presidency, you know, watch out and, you know, I Sean Spicer comes out and uses the term fake news. And then Mike Pence comes out and uses the term fake news. And then Donald Trump does the same thing. And I thought you know what? The this starting to bug me. I you know, after we had been abused out there on the campaign trail and called the dishonest. Speedy and disgusting news media and so on. I thought you know what this is this is different? This is more than just attacking the press. This is taking story that was true in real and trying to say that it was fake this was telling people that up was down and black white, and my sense was the president of the United States, can't do that. You can't just go into the Oval Office, pulling the wool over people's eyes like this. And so I tried to, but in an ask them a question, and that's when he said, no, no, you're terrible, your fake news. But and, and what we've seen ever since then is the president calling stories that he doesn't like fake news. And is I write in the book, every time he calls his fake news. That that's usually a tell, you know, like a poker player has it's completely. And it's usually when we're onto something I like to call the truth. You know that that is when we're when we're drilling down to that point where he is going. Back to those insults. And that sort of thing, that's what I tell folks. Okay. This is what we all need to pay really close. Attention is that is. When we've, we've hit on something I love your book. We're talking about the leaks. I mean that White House. It leaks like it was unbelievable cheese grater, you know. And he said, well, the leaks are real, but the news is fake. Yeah. It's a mind bender. I mean I don't know. That's usually say check, please. I'm outta here. No. I mean. Yeah. That was that happened. During one of those moments, the information is correct. But your reporting of it is fake. That's right. And you know, Leslie Stahl to her credit over a CBS. She one point reported that Donald Trump personally told her that he calls, stories fake news. And he goes off on the press, because he doesn't want the public to believe what we say so at that press conference when you call very fake news. One of the things I asked him was Mr President, when you do that, aren't you undermining the public's confidence in the press, aren't you undermining people's confidence in what they hear what they see any kind of started started to agree with that he says, you know, you're right about that. But and then he got back to how he feels a badly treated by the press. And in my point of it is, wait a minute. You know, folks say to me all the. Time. Well, why is it that the approval levels for the press are so low right now? Well, if the president of the United States is running down on a regular basis, of course, they're going to be folks out there who confidence and us, and one of the things I get to towards the end of this book as we can't have a situation in this country, where half of the country believes what the president says, or what is ally saying conservative media, and then what everybody else believes because they're getting it from the mainstream press, if we're not dealing with a common set of facts, and common sense of the truth. We're in big trouble t think the public is at that point now, do you think the president has voted trusts in what we can call mainstream press? I think he has, I think that, you know, a lot of his supporters, you know, and I see this out the rallies. You know, go to these rallies. And I get, you know, combination of things I get the middle finger. I get people yelling at me and saying all sorts of things, and then some of them will say, can I have a selfie? So it's a mixed. They give you the middle finger. Sometimes they do that. There's it's. They satisfy both urges. But what, what I find what's interesting about the rallies, or one of the reasons why I like covering the rallies is that it's sort of like holding up a mirror to America, and it is sort of tapping into the mindset of, of Trump supporter, because what I often find is that they're selling us, essentially what they've been told on the president's favourite media outlets. And I hear kind of the same talking points. And I think to myself, my goodness, you know, folks are being immersed in the stuff they're saying those same thing, they're saying, I mean, I remember going to one from rally, and there was a baby a onesie that says CNN is faked. And I'm thinking to myself, baby, a one sees this button. I mean, what's next in utero, indoctrinating, you know, like that, that to me is, is a worrying sign, and you see these signs at the rallies, people holding up signs talking about various conspiracy theories. And as I write in the book, this really shouldn't come as a surprise anybody. When you have a conspiracy theorist in the White House, you know, and folks might say, well, maybe that's too harsh should you be saying that we'll remember Donald Trump was one of the leading proponents of one of the biggest false conspiracy theories of all time, which is Barack Obama wasn't born in the United States that is a false bogus conspiracy theory. So it shouldn't come as big surprise folks, that many of his supporters, also, adopt conspiracy theories as fact as well as disturbing as it may seem to you, and I hung to us as a member of the press. How do you deal with the, the overseas part of it that to me is some of the most agree GIS present? Overseas. I think Helsinki was one of the places to where he will just to mean the pressing. Call them out. I think that is even worse than what he does here. How do you guys deal with that sort of thing? Well, I think your heads exploding a little bit. Yeah. No question about it. And I mean, I'll, I'll tell you, this is what it's like you go on these road trips with president, you go over seas. And you're essentially at the mercy of the White House, and their handlers, and so on, because they're moving from one event to the next, and, yeah, when the president goes off, on us in front of the press for say a foreign government that we're visiting that day, you know, it is pretty depressing. Because the United States of America is supposed to be this beacon of democracy all over the world. We're supposed to be setting the example for all of these countries everywhere else. And I and I mentioned this one story when we went abroad, with present went to Asia, and he met with the, the guy who's in charge of the Philippines, right now, this guy Rodrigue, oh, do Tei was a brutal essentially an autocrat dictator now. In that country. And there was this one press conference where do territory refers to us as spies. He says, I'm not gonna talk to you guys. You're the spies and Trump started laughing along with that, you know, and it may be thing you know, if you're the president of the United States, okay, if you're not gonna stand up for us at that moment in time, which maybe it should have you should have at least don't laugh along when the dictator causes spies. You know you know this has happened on multiple occasions and, you know, right in front of Theresa May, he called me fake news. At a press conference, remember that in Britain before the Helsinki summit, and, you know, the world is watching, you know, the world is watching this, and they're taking note, and this is why you have long standing US allies data partners, who question, whether they do it openly now, whether or not, they can count on the United States, whose hands does that play into, of course, it plays Vladimir Putin's hands and the other folks were watching around the world, those other autocrats and. Dictators, those other foreign governments around the world that don't respect our values. They're seeing the president. The United States degrade, you know, the discourse in such a way that I think it opens doors for them and invites them to sort of be his many, many me on the world stage, and we just don't know what the consequences of that are going to be like. But my, my sense of it is, if we don't see either a force correction in his behavior were, you know, on the national level in terms of our elections. You're going to see other governments around the world. Start taking a page from him. You know, this, this happened, just recently not drone on too long about this. The president of Brazil came to the White House. They've new hard, right? President of Brazil also Daro, and he came to the White House for a joint press conference in the rose garden and are referred to stories back in Brazil as fake news. And so now it's like a virus that's spreading around the world. And it's interesting how he likes to buddy up with these strong men. Around the world. I mean joking with Kim Jong UN he wants to be his buddy so bad. You know, it's, it's just really shocking to me, some people feel that Trump wants to be that here. I don't think he's like this brilliant, Machiavellian. I just think he's an immature three-year-old. That's interesting own brand, but I could be wrong. Do you is there a sense of fear about that? Trump has an ulterior motive in this or is he just really not that complicated? Well, he keeps joking about, you know, maybe we'll have a third term or they'll add on some years to term and office, because he feels, you know, cheated by the Muller investigation, Bill Maher, thanks. He's not gonna leave if. Talked to a political, you know, analysts in this book law. You know, a time political science professor, Larry Sabato at the university of Virginia respected guy presidential scholar. And he said, never since Richard Nixon have ever worried about a president carrying out a coup stay in office. Now, this is not some crackpot. This is Larry Sabato from the university of Virginia, who doesn't throw around that kind of rhetoric. And so there are real concerns out there. I think that'll be a very big moment for the Republican party, and I write about this in the book. There have been so many moments during the first two years of this president's presidency, where the Republican party had an opportunity to slam the brakes on some of this behavior and hit the pause button on some of this rhetoric and they just didn't do it because they were getting an exchange for going along with the president's rhetoric and behavior. They were getting tax cuts. They were getting conservative judges, and they were getting things like that. And they weren't, you know. Saying, hey, miss president, you shouldn't call the process of the enemy of the people or heinous president, you should refer to immigrants in this fashion. And my sense of it is, if, if Donald Trump doesn't want to go willingly at the end of this term. I can't believe I'm even talking about this as if this was a possibility, but people do worry about this. Yeah. It's going to be a huge moment for the Republican party, because my sense of it is that they're going to they're going to have to be the ones to say, that's it. Mr President is time to go. Yeah. That sentiment. I guess, I suppose what do you what do you expect to see in this next election in terms of Trump? Do you think he's gonna try to do his thing, the same way? Just or is he turned the Democrats into you guys? Well, he's starting to do that. You know, he didn't have, you know, the, the villain pro wrestler, there at the beginning of his administration. That's yeah. Kind of what we got turned into. And now he's got Democrats to run against these starting to do that. You know, I think he's got a really big uphill climb going into twenty twenty. We saw him go back to that issue of immigration during the twenty eighteen midterms. Remember he was referring to that caravan of migrants as an invasion and he was trying to push peoples buttons again. Yeah. The way he did during the twenty sixteen can't you, you really push them on that pile on that point? And you know, one of the things that we. Was Republican operatives, you know, they're folks up on Capitol Hill saying, don't do this. We don't want you doing this, because you were going to turn off people in these swing districts. You know, and that's what happened in a lot of these house races. One of the reasons why the Democrats swept into power and such a huge decisive fashion is because there were folks in these swing districts who said, you know, we're tired of this immigration rhetoric. This does not work on us and people forget that midterm elections typically favor of the Republican party. If you look at the turnout for midterms, it's usually the Republicans who turn out and higher numbers in presidential elections. Those the years, one Democrats turn out in higher numbers, the Democratic Party won by an eight point margin in twenty eighteen midterms. What does that tell you that this margin could be even higher twenty twenty so what did we see? Donald Trump just do this past week right before his first official kickoff rally down in Orlando, Florida. What's the issue that he hits immigration? Remember, he put out that tweet earlier this week that said there, we're going. Have this big round up of of undocumented immigrants all across the country. And then we reached out to our sources. I talked to a senior administration official who said there's nothing happened. There's nothing imminent happening. He's just throwing stuff out there now they, they may have operations happening down the road. But he said, there's nothing imminent this, there's nothing imminent and so he's trying to go back to this issue of immigration, because he knows it is it it's exciting for his base. But it didn't work for him in the twenty eighteen midterms. And my sense of it is, he's kind of feeling around, what am I gonna do this time around in twenty twenty to get the same thing going again? And, you know, he may he may find that in twenty twenty he's not going to be able to replicate what he did in two thousand sixteen because Gration was such a strong. I always felt that he won because of immigration. And when I say one, I mean that's what electrified is base was the was that issue. But it and people call read me. I don't even think it's red meat for his base. I think it's like LSD first base. This hallucinogen that they think people are invading country. While that's, that's the way I describe it. You know, it's like California's still California. Yeah. Was not the colony of new. Wata. Malla. You know, they didn't raise the Mexican flag over Los Angeles or anything like that and down on the border. It wasn't like a scene game a game of thrones catapults shooting boulders over the border. There were like moms with little kids with the explorer strollers and stuff like that. You know, and my sense of it is, is that we've seen this with this issue of immigration is a criminal ization, and demonization of, of desperation, and you have people coming to this country because they're desperate to leave these, you know, gang infested places in Central America. They're not coming here to change our way of life or take jobs away from people that, that, they, you know, that normally find they're doing it because they're in big trouble down there. And, you know, I get it that we need to have borders, and we did have security in this country. But my goodness. How can we get to a point in this country and I write about this in the book where we're taking kids away from their parents. I don't get that. I still don't get that. And I think it's okay. Yeah. I mean, I think it's okay as a straight news reporter to say that I write in the book, there aren't two sides to a story. There aren't two sides to a story when it's a matter of right versus wrong. And I, I think I thought about that because I'm a parent. Wow. What are we going to say to ourselves five ten fifteen years from, now when we go back and look at this footage of these kids being separated from their parents? It makes me shake my Honey do personally. I mean, when you went through the whole thing, where you were accused of hitting the intern or, or smack him, or whatever was with the doctor video. Yes. But personally that's you know, it kinda crosses that line a little bit. It seems as professional was that a tough thing to deal with. I you know, I couldn't believe it. You know, I was there on that subject of the caravan, I was asking the president about this and say miss president, you're calling invasion of innovation and we went back and forth and he got he got very upset. You know, if there's one thing he doesn't like he doesn't like being called out for his dishonesty, and he doesn't like being called out for his insensitive and offensive rhetoric. Anyway, doesn't like to be called up for just talk. Our just talking. Situation. It was kind of a double whammy. I mean he was doing both at the same time and all of the sudden, I'm, I'm looking over here and there's this intern coming for my microphone, and you can see in the video, I recoil I, I pulled back, and I say, pardon me, ma'am. And she, you know, for a moment or two tries to, to take the microphone she goes away. And then, you know, I go back about doing my business. I do my life shot on CNN. Do my story for wolf Blitzer that night I leave I go to dinner, I'm coming back to the White House, and I'm looking at my phone all of a sudden, see this notification on my phone. It's a statement from Sarah Sanders, not to me, but to the whole world, Jim Costa's press pass has been revoked. And I and I think to myself. Wow. And it says, and we will not tolerate a reporter laying his hands on a White House intern like Bill Clinton, all of the sudden or something like that. You know, and it's like wait a minute. I didn't do that. And then, you know, and so I re- tweeted her tweet, and I said, this is a lie. And I think to this day, it's got like ninety nine thousand retweets or something like that. And then later that night to defend herself. She goes, and we stand by our decision, and here's the video. Here's why. And that was the doctor video that was that they put out where they actually sped up the video to make it look like I did this karate chop motion on the internet. Remember the karate shop, does everybody remember that. And I tell folks pork chops, I know karate chops, I don't know. You know, I'm not, you know, there, there's no black belts that they hand out, and I don't have anything along those lines. But, but I thought to myself, you know, all kidding aside that we're sort of in this George Orwell nineteen Eighty-four upside down world, where the White House, the United States government people forget that they're like, oh, that's just Sarah Sanders, Sean Spicer, Donald Trump. That's not the White House. That's just the TV show. We watch. No. It's the United States government. Using your tax dollars to put out a doctor video. And we found out that that video came from the people over at Infowars, which I hate even saying the name of that website because it's such a discredited conspiracy theory ridden, you know, bogus website, and I'm thinking to myself. Wow. We're paying how much money to put out Dr videos from Infowars. It was just mind bending. And so, but to CNN's credit, there was no hesitation. There was no wishy washiness. They decided right away. This is an important first amendment case, we took the, the Trump administration took the White House to court the, you know, the, the lawsuit said, you know, CNN, and Jimmy cost versus Donald J Trump, and that at that moment, I was like, wow. Okay. This is heavy this, this is not the people's court. It's not judge Judy this. I wish we're judge Judy of God. I was I was dead. No. We didn't get Schutte. We got Trump judge. And I remember thinking that myself I write about this book. I'm like, oh, man. We got Trump of when a judge my goose might be cooked here. But even the Trump appointed judge said, you know what I've got to go with, you know, case law and precedent and you know there was a court case that had been handled in this in a similar fashion where essentially, they just took somebody's press pass away didn't give them their rights. And, you know, the judge follow that essentially to the conclusion that we, we ended up with. But what I remind folks about, and you'll read about this in the book is, you know, consider the case that the Trump administration was making the Trump administration's own lawyers Justice department lawyers, we had lawyers on behalf the United States, Justice department arguing against me paid for with your tax dollars. And they made the argument in federal court, that the president of the United States can pick and choose who covers the White House. They made that argument, of course, they said that if the president doesn't like the coverage that you're doing or the reporting that you're doing that the. White House can say you know what you're out of here, we can take away your press pass, and I thought you know what if we ended up being unsuccessful in that case, the judge ruled against CNN, first of all, we were gonna appeal it could go on forever. But it would have put a real chilling effect on the first amendment and free speech in this country. And I'm not trying to puff up. What happened with me or anything, but you could have had governors, the governor of the state, the mayor of the city say, well, we're not gonna, you know, have this station at this press conference anymore because we don't like the covers that you did. And by the way, we're, we're backing this up because of what happened in the case of CNN versus Trump. It would've established a precedent across the country that elected officials could toss out journalists that they don't like and my goodness, at that point the question, I ask, is does that sound like the United States of America any more? My goodness. No, actually does to me. Because I don't think so. I mean, I really Richard Nixon, he wouldn't, let CBS coming to the White House, a couple of times excluded some reporters from that I think even Obama did some stuff with Fox News. I think the president president stood up when, when Obama tried that with FOX the rest of the press corps said you know what? Ms president. You can't do that. And to go after the brother. Fox's credit. They were one of the first ones to come along and support us, in our court case. And I think they realize, you know, it's not so good when the shoe is on the other foot, and I remind my friends in conservative media. There's no guarantee you to stay in power forever. There's no guarantee that tribe, or Donald Trump junior or vodka travel, wherever they wanna do next guest to be in the White House. I was just making sure you're paying attention. And, you know, you know, you I say to my Republican friends and conservative colleagues in the media like do you want democratic presidents come in and say, okay, we'll Donald Trump did it to CNN. We're going to do it to you guys. You're outta here. We can't keep going down that road. That's not that's not gonna work for anybody. Do you think? Fox News is turning against Trump. He seems to be worried about that. It would be fantastic. Yeah. I mean, I think they troll him sometimes too, which is not having a great time this shit. Man. I love I love chef. He loves to troll, Trump. Yeah, I turn the lights off and just. He's doing a great job over there. He really is. And you know what we hear from folks from time to time is that and I write about this in the book, is that, you know, he Donald Trump is a dicta- dec-, and he is obsessed and he watches all the time because you got breaking news. He can't stop watching things. Breaking it must be a me. Right. That's right. But this one senior White House official said to me, he, he loves to watch you guys all the time, but he washes FOX to make himself feel better. Yes. I think he has some kind of odd relationship of Jeff Zucker too, you know, because they go back to the apprentice he was running in be Seebeck at the time and I think it's a competitive type of thing he doesn't wanna see Jeff win or something like it's a little weird. And so I think it's really something is I think it's rooted in something like. I will say this, you know, Jeff has made it very clear to the White House to Sarah Sanders to Donald Trump, that this rhetoric has got to stop when that self-described Trump supporters Caesar say ox, a pipe bomb to CNN various mechanic officials around the world. Jeff have really been biding his time on route a lot of this wasn't sending out statements all the time. And Jeff had finally had enough and at that point, that's when he put out the statement that said the president's words matter, and you know as, as we have been saying, CNN lately, just because you are pro truth doesn't mean you're anti Trump. You know, the truth has to mean something in this country. It may not it may mean more to us and to the current occupant of the Oval Office. But that doesn't mean we stopped doing our jobs. And, you know, to just credit to the credit of the people at CNN they stood behind me every step of the way, and I know that they're folks there, sometimes they don't agree with everything that we do. But when it when it came down to defending the first amendment. Speech in this country. The right of a free press. I thought CNN you know, really did everybody a solid during that whole episode? And you know, it's one of the reasons why proud to work there. I know in this time as soon as you know, all come on Jim is this one of the promos or something like that, but make fun of saying, I know. But that's okay. That's we we. Here's the thing, we, we can take it all good natured because I just, you know, it's my invasion seen, and always breaking news. And now they literally are breaking news. You know, but I thank you to get it on the way home. That's fine too. You know what I what I folks is, and I mean this, and I know we live in the cynical time and folks, don't wanna believe this and think it's Courtney and stuff like that our hearts are in the right place. Larry. They really are. And, you know, when it's Anderson Cooper or wolf Blitzer or Jake tapper versus Cuomo. Dana bash, my colleagues over the White House. These are some folks who are dealing with an unprecedented situation and some very difficult times. And it was not like we want a parade thrown fours, or anything like that. China make about we're not trying to make it about us. We are looking at this as a very serious time in this country. And I think we approach it like that. Yeah. Well, let's take some questions for mister go around with the microphone and choose. This is where I insult. The question if I like the question you ask, I'm going to call you a name. I hope you don't you should try Trumpian and pro. All right. I love her just a quick reminder questions around here. Start typically with the W H sometimes a D. They're generally short. There is no such thing as a two part question and tonight, only Larry Wilmore gets to ask the follow up question, many rules, I had the whole two part question, but I'll only make one just so. How do you fair it out? The news inside the White House when Sarah Sanders this, not having these price briefings. How are you getting those nuggets out of people oddly enough? We have more truth coming out. No. Know what I find is that there are folks who still want to talk to us. And just in case folks, don't have all the vernacular down, or whatever we talked to officials from time to time on what we call on background where they give us the information but they don't tell us who they are. They don't want their name attached to the information, we can still talking to various sources, put together, what's happening on a daily basis in that fashion. Now, the other thing is as mentioned earlier, Sarah, we'll go do these live exclusive interviews with FOX, and then she'll come down the driveway and talk to us on the day that the full Muller report came out, not the whitewashed version that first came out, but the full model report came out. We had to settle for Sarah Sanders driveway gaggle as we call it to ask questions. And that was the day where I asked her, I said, well, if the president weren't the president would he be charged with a crime right now because remember the whole? We'll see memo that basically says Justice department guidelines that say, you know, the president can't be charged with a crime, but president can't be indicted. Those are the kinds of questions that we used to ask in the briefing room when the lights were on the cameras are on and there was one reporter chasing after Sarah after she was finished that day saying, Sarah. Why don't you go in the briefing room, the breathing room? It's thirty feet away and saying that the podium like you used to. Is more difficult now but we're trying our best to talk to sources inside the administration. And the other thing is Donald Trump likes being his own communications director. He might like being his own press secretary, there's about opening press secretary and he likes talking to us. And so we, you know, I don't know if you want to call that information, but we, that's you know, that is how we get the administration's take on things. But, you know, we talked to folks up on Capitol Hill. We talked to folks inside the Republican party advisers to the president. And we put all of that together and try to get at something that is pretty darn close to the truth. And I think we do a solid job of Trump is so hockey for attention, but then he says stupid. He's like his own deep throat half the time. Veal and things about him. Run of you. There's an expression that we have down this business. There's a there's a tweet for that, you know, when, for example, he deep throat's himself in tweets for example, today, we're talking about that triple on time. No, we're, we're talking about Iran, and there's a tweet back from twenty twelve where he says Barack Obama's going to start a war with a run in order to get reelected. And it's like you know, you can't make this stuff up. It's sort of, like, you know, like a time machine back to, you know, the way he used to think back, then it's kind of amazing someone back then. Yes. I wanna I salute your bravery and your true patriotism, so much. And along those lines was driving here tonight. I actually heard him talking on the news saying, you know, that drone that where over to Iran didn't have any people. But if it had had people in that would have been a real problem. You're right. VS all the time too. There's some of these Larry take. I'm just going to. The team with the highest score wins. We do have a question I just want, and I could be wrong that I heard recently that CNN had either different management or different president or something like that. And a that may not be true. But I did hear on the radio, and if so will that change any of your reporting, we have a new company, we have a company AT and T Bossie and yes, and to AT and T credit? And again, I'm not trying to sound like a corporate PR here, AT, and T was very much on board with the press pass case they didn't hesitate either and, you know, big corporation like that they could have gone wildly on us, but they did. And but ours are saying, president is the one who's been there for the past six years, just. And I think we've got a good team over there. They have not asked me to change my reporting change. What I do. Nobody's told our folks. You be a little less tough on, on the president or anything like that. And I think it's to everybody's credit at CNN that we've maintained that same approach in posture because my goodness, you know you can just imagine the situation I can see you're not in your head bam. You could imagine a situation where, you know, executive over here talks to the White House over here, and the fixes in, you know what we're determined to do over there to make sure we're still doing the news. You know, sort of damned torpedoes, you know, at this point, because this is a very important time and this is vital information that we're talking about that you deserve. Well. Banking. Story broke today, and I'm not sure that it's accurate. I'll try to help you out that, that from intends to tweet rebuttals during democratic debates. Yes. Should should the media carry those? I mean it seems to me that that's who is he. Tweets. Rebuttals. Well, anyway. Alive. Yeah. The media even cover those during the debates really not this -rupt of I mean, it seems that it's mad anyway, I think you're going to see a lot less of that. I think you're gonna see a lot less of covering the trolling and the team. You know, we're we have caught on. We're, you know, we're starting to connect the dots. You know, we're seeing the patterns and I just think you're gonna see a lot less of that. I really do. I think you're going to see more fact checking you're gonna see more investigative reporting. You know, they've been talking to me about getting out there and covering, you know, sexy topics deregulation and stuff like that. So, you know, folks covering insert, yeah. So we're, we're putting some meat on, on the bones of what we're seeing out there because a lot of folks will say, all you do is cover the tweets and all you do is cover the daily drama. We wanna know what's happening with the environment. What I talked to my own kids about what the most important story is right now. They'll say climate change, you know. We are covering hell of a lot of climate change these days. Let me tell you and you may not believe that to be the case. But I'll point you to some of my colleagues who are now doing a lot of coverage on that. And I think the public just response to almost instantaneously because it is something that we all have the sense of my goodness. We've seen the you guys have perfect beautiful weather here Angeles. But if you look at the national data over the last twenty years, most of the hottest years on record have occurred in the last twenty years, and the most powerful hurricanes have been happening over the last two or three decades that points to very serious problem with the climate the Arctic ice is retreating in ways that we haven't seen in a very long time. There are some major indicators happening right now that the planet is in trouble. And so I think you're gonna see us focus on issues like that moving forward heading into this campaign. So it's not just. About the tweets and the usual back and forth with Nancy Pelosi and so on. And I think people are going to be better served in the long run because of that. In the corner over here. We're kind of the Mike. What is your sense of the connection or the relationship, the true relationship between Donald Trump and flat Putin Donald Trump and Putin? Yeah. I mean that's the million dollar question. I gotta tell you. I mean, and that's why put it in my book. I talked to top national security official who said I can't, I can't explain this to you and I talked to this official on several different occasions. And even after the mullahs report, I went back to this person. I said, okay, now what do you think? And this person said, I still can't sort this out for new Jim. I can't make hesitate of this very cozy relationship and we, you can trace this all the way back to the campaign, one of the chapters in my book is Russia. If you're listening, you know, people I like to point this out. I mean, I asked the question that, you know, prompted Trump to say that I asked him, why won't you tell Putin to stay out of our elections? This was after the hack at the DNC was reported. For the first time. And that was when he launched into that whole Russia. If you're listening, if you find Hillary Clinton's emails, you'll be rewarded mightily by the press, now at the time the campaign said, oh, he was just joking. He didn't mean that and some of us okay maybe he was joking. Remember what he said to George Stephanopoulos, just the other day? Well, if a foreign government came to be with information, I take a look at it, and maybe I take it hidden sound like he was joking. Then we are here we are three years later, almost three years after he said, Russia. If you're listening, he's still talking about that. I think that should give the voters pause. And I think it does not take you out of the out of the lane of being a straight news reporter to say that I it does raise questions. And that's why we asked the question all the time. What do you make of this deal? The Steele dossier. You know, it's, it's one of those things where some of it has turned out to be true. Some of it has turned out not to be true. But the day that Donald Trump got so mad at us at that press conference CNN deny even report, the details of the dossier. We held back we feed buzz faint. Yeah. There were some on substantiated things, and that's still dossier, and our talking. Where are, you know, where we're going to say this? But what's funny really is what or gating, right? Air. Air. Yeah. Let's hope not. Yeah. There's some things I don't want to. Yes. Exactly. But you'll recall at the Helsinki summit with bladder Putin, Vladimir Putin address this issue. And as I write in the book, and as I point out, he didn't really deny that they had. Incriminating or uncompromising position, whatever you wanna call it evidence and our compromising position, I guess, the case, maybe, but, you know, and Putin said, basically said that they have been in the practice of collecting this kind of information on business. People go to Russia. So if you go to Russia, you know, and you stay at the Ritz Carlton, please be on your best behavior because. Yes. Do you think the president has since abuse problem substance abuse? I where do you get that from? If I may ask. Well, first Janetta is brother clearly own. Yeah. And then you can look at the behaviors. Yeah. I don't think he does. He doesn't drink right now. He doesn't drink and. Maybe if this, Kentucky Fried Chicken is the substance, there's a lot of DIKO he's got a button for diet coke. You know, I don't know the answer to that, quite honestly, and I couldn't venture gas. I do know. And I will say this to their credit, they are trying to focus on this opioid crisis in the country and when he has spoken about the opioid crisis. He's talked about is his brother and you know how he went through substance abuse issues, and so to be honest with you. I I've been covering them for three years. I don't have any information about that. It would be irresponsible, for me to, to take. I mean guess give him some credit. It's one of the few things speaks, very eloquently about his, his brother and his, I think, alchoholic believe that's right. That's right. Yeah. And he sees talked about that for a long time. There was someone this young lady here. I think he's too much. We talk it out with Trump. I'm taking real. News and calling fake news in my survey Shen and personal experience the this year situation where we have a lot of. Fake news that has real aspects, but it's not actually being reported on Acura correctly. Particularly online, and with media where it's really just being sort of paid for stories that are not being investigated by all parties. What is sort of your opinion on where we've gone with online news coverage, you're talking about like the fake news stories of show on Facebook. Russian points showing up on real sites. Entertainment news or Washington Post, but they're only being covered sort of one statement of celebrities perspective, but has not actually been investigated or any other parties. Looked into the facts news, not opinion news based on facts, but they're not actually reporting all of the facts of the situation, they're more like I would say, like a media campaign, that's being reported as news that actually is has factual aspects, but isn't actually being reported that. Well, you know, there's a lot of good reporters in Washington DC as I've known a bunch of the folks of the post and the times, and the various networks for several years. Now we try our darnedest not to fall for that kind of stuff. And, you know, my sense of it is, is that we're doing our best every day to have multiple sources and not just take it from one individual. So you don't get one-sided view. But as for the issue of actual fake news, which sounds like an oxymoron. I mean just to discuss that for a moment. Yeah, I mean one of the things that. Is really concerning to me is have you guys heard about these things called deep fakes? This is the next generation in, in actual flight is actually, so it's sort of, like what happened to me with that doctor video, and the and the press pass incident where we've now gone from okay, you got fake news stories like pizza gate and Cunanan and things like that, which is just garbage Oguz fake stuff and Russian Russian Botts are planning, these stories on Facebook pages and things like that, and it caused a lot of discord in two thousand sixteen. A lot of people were believing these stories that have websites where if you looked at the full website like dot something, you know, x y z, and that's usually good telltale sign of, of fake news story that's been planted. Now, you have this where you have deep fakes where you have operatives with political campaigns who have the technical capability now of manipulating, video manipulating audio in such a fashion that it looks real that what you're watching. What you're hearing. Seems like the real thing sort of like the karate shop video where they sped up arm movement to make it look like I hit that intern. And just recently this happened to Nancy Pelosi, you'll remember when they slow down the audio Nancy Pelosi makes you made it sound like drunk or speech, or whatever, getting back with this gentleman, saying talking about slurred speech, and so on just put out there and it's just put out there and on, on Facebook. The Nancy Pelosi video registered millions of us. And so now you have a situation where, you know, political operatives the Trump campaign, they're not gonna do it inside the Trump campaign, there may be operatives outside the company campaign, so they can have plausible deniability where, you know, some of the stuff may be put out there just to pull the wool over people's eyes. And you know, four governments made try to engage in this kind of thing too. So discord, our elections, and you think the 2016 campaign was tougher reporters, it's going to be even more tile. The news organizations going into twenty twenty because we're going to be very cognizant of the fact that they're dark forces out there trying to manipulate the video, and the audio that you're taking in to try to sway votes and the upcoming election. It's a very serious debate and acceleration of this, this election. I think it's I think it's going to happen. I think we're gonna have a very big problem with this. And you know it's going to put every news organization on guard. CNN has done some great stories on this go to our website and you search or if you go on Google and search deep fake CNN, and that's not a slam on us. It's I think a way to find some really good stories that we've done recently on this, and you'll see some video examples of video that's been manipulated. So you can see sort of before, and after an explanation as to what's going on. It's one of those things I've been telling folks wherever I go guys, we have to be careful about this kind of information, because it's going to be injected into our news cycle, like virus to how, how does the average person who's now. Like doesn't come to an event like this. They're not on social media every day, you know, they're at work, most of the day because, you know, they're trying to make ends me trying to feed their kids that type of thing. I feel like they're so vulnerable to this type of thing really. We fight that as both from a media point of view like reporting even from what I'm doing. What do you have an opinion on that advice, my adviser most worried about that? That's for votes will be coming from or those types of people. Yeah. By my advice is to, you know, we gotta keep talking to one another, and all of these folks in this audience tonight, may be of sympathetic point of view, to, to the press to CNN appreciate that. I'm so happy. That that's the case. But you may have friends you may have relatives who you can't really have a conversation with over thanksgiving dinner anymore because it's so difficult to talk about this political climate mice. And I know this is difficult to hear and you don't wanna hear it, and you're like, I'm not gonna listen to this guy. Please don't give up on talking to relatives and those friends because, you know, moving forward into this next campaign as much as drives you nuts to talk to your, and now, you're Ralph about politics. I think that we can't give up on talking to one another about what's happening to this country. And my sense of it is this goes back to some of the themes, in my book is, we don't wanna remember when you and I were going, Larry, and we would talk about, you know, our grandparents, and our parents would talk about how they don't wanna hand off to the next generation a country that is worse off. They want to be better. They want to hand off to the next generation a better country than the one. They got does anybody ever say that anymore? Right. Nobody really says that anymore. So how can we in our right minds hand off to the next generation a country where it's okay to refer to the press as the enemy of the people or referred to immigrants is rapists, and criminals, and that sort of thing, what are we doing to this country? And that's one of the reasons why I wrote this book is sort of shoot warning flare into the sky. Bye guys, we can't keep going on like this. And so as much as we want to give up on talking to relatives talking to our friends that we disagree with my attitude is that we've got to keep trying because, you know, this argument is too big. It's too important to give up on. I think that's a great way to to wrap that up. I thank. Guys. Thank you so much. Three them. Black. Thank you. Great talk.
Relatos de mi tierra 213 Formosa, consejos para viajar por el norte argentino
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The Primaries Project: There's Gotta Be A Better System...Right?
"Welcome to the third and final installment of the primaries project as series about how we nominate presidential candidates last week we looked at the real world world consequences of our primary system and the week before that we examined how it came to be. If you haven't heard either of those episodes yet you may WanNa check them out first this week. We're looking at how the system could be different here. We go roll. Call Jefferson Ascend Hancock items. John Henry Patrick Henry President of the Convention George in Washington. The floor is your that's Timothy. Bats are Youtuber in high school history teacher in New York taking us back to the summer of seventeen eighty seven even during a more than three month long debate known today as the constitutional convention the time has to review and saw all constitution. Hey Hey the founders argued over how the United States would be governed. They disagreed over matters of representation including how enslaved people would be counted. How how many representatives each state would get and some delegates refused to sign without a bill of rights? What's needed that isn't he'll well? The requested specific protections Shinzo individual freedom of speech religion assembly saved them in the notes and we might add a bill of rights later even with all this drawn out debate and the addition of a bill of rights. There were many things the framers left out entirely for example parties when the founders wrote the constitution they didn't believe in parties. That's Larry Sabato Director of the University of Virginia Center for politics in fact the founders. They didn't believe in popular politics and widespread voting and of course since the framers didn't believe in formalizing parties. They had no no reason to design a system for parties to choose candidates to run in general elections commonly known as primaries many constitutions. Have that you an article about the operation of politics. But of course the United States doesn't without a primary system laid out in the constitution. The parties have been left to design whatever process they want and they have I and since the process isn't in the constitution that means the parties themselves could also change it pretty easily. That is if they thought it needed improving proving over the last two episodes we talked about how accidental our primary system is and how flawed in this episode. We're wondering if other places do it better and come to think of it. What is better even mean? Yeah well this is a very good question. Gideon Rahat professor of Political Science at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. The most common way is to argue argue that the most democratic system as the most participatory system. Our system is very participatory. We believe that we have a democratic process. We're democracy so we should have a say and we don't really get too deep into the into the weeds about how that democracy works as long as people are voting. Then that's democracy democracy Hans Knoll the political scientist who helped develop the party decides theory most people quite understandably Don't spend all of their time thinking about the implications of different democratic institutions. They just WANNA see. Democracy happening and primaries are great to see democracy happening knowles. Point is that a democracy isn't well-functioning just because people are voting as we heard in the last episode although we have a very open system in the United States it it doesn't necessarily lead to a public consensus or good governance. The design of the system is key. I would say that the Marquis is is about Checks and balances about the involvement of different institutions with different level of inclusiveness. And this is also part art of the American way of thinking about democracy. This is the way that your founding fathers has established your to your very complicated regime and Rajavi has laid out a rubric to help judge how Democratic a candidate selection system is according to Raha. There are four key components the first is inclusiveness or how opened the process. It is to the general public. The second is competition. How hard do politicians have to work to be nominated for re-nominated dominated? The third is responsiveness. Has the system chosen. Politicians who govern according to the will of the people and the fourth and final is representativeness has the system resulted in a governing body that reflects the population of a country tree to understand what all this means in action. We're going to explore how different countries around the world nominate their candidates. Let's begin our world tour in Norway is expected to put your head illegal. After the blast the thing Alpha I young illiberal eastern in Norway Party leaders choose which candidates will run so the part is controlled all aspects. That's ruined Carlson. A professor at the University of Oslo the the voters have no say they just have to vote for the list that the party has decided upon so that makes it quite exclusive. That gets Mahat's first component. For Judging how Democratic Democrat candidate selection system is who takes part probably the most important one is the inclusiveness or exclusiveness in this of this electoral. This electorate is the group of people that chooses a party's leaders for example in the US. It's the people who vote in primaries earnings and caucuses the electorate is the people who choose between those candidates in the general election and in some parties the selector is very very very very exclusive. It's the party leader that selects candidates for parliament. Okay in Norway the selector is about `bout as exclusive as it gets in the US it's very inclusive and all of this effects. How candidates behave the more inclusive selector? selector art is the more individualistic player. The candidate with and the more exclusive electorate be the more he or she would be a partisan players show. The candidates in Norway do not run personality. Driven campaigns. Do not focus that much on themselves. They said that at the most important thing for my campaign is to get focused on the party in the. US campaigns are more candidates centric and intra-party conflict can get messy see and personal and minutes later it was game on Julio Castro in the middle of a healthcare discussion taking veiled swipe at Joe Biden. Going there on on the question of Biden's forgetting what you said in Norway on on the other hand there's no incentives for for for candidates to campaign against shoulder it's important to note though that countries like Norway have many parties so while there's little fighting within parties if voters are politicians don't like the direction of one party they have numerous other options to choose from in the US us if you don't like the direction of one party for the most part you only have one other option. Norway is an extreme example but there are also candidate selection selection systems that are more exclusive than the US while not being quite as exclusive as Norway election countering sorting counting adjudicating sitting on votes in the Republic of Ireland. The final decision is taken by a vote of the Party members. That's Theresa reading a political scientist at University College Cork in Norway. It's the party leaders who are selecting the candidates while in Ireland. It's generally open to all Party members but party membership requires choirs paying fees attending meetings and working for the party. In other words these people are clearly invested in. The party's goals patchy membership is actually she quite low in Ireland. It's one of the lowest in Europe. In fact only about three percent of the country belongs to a party so about one hundred forty five thousand people in a country of almost five million. And what does this mean for the people who are nominated. It Means Party selectors. The members of political parties play a really crucial crucial role in shaping the choices that the arrest of the electorate are faced with when they go in and get their ballot paper so they really do a pre screening process who says almost every democracy on the planet has a more exclusive candid selection system than the US. But there's one country that may be even more open up about a third of Argentina has a national primary primary system. It's an acronym fossil which stands for pre. Mattias I've yet simultaneously. Nobody got thirty. s that's Peter Balas. I am the share. You're of the Politics International Affairs Department at Wake Forest University and the Associate Director of the Latin American. Latino studies program here Argentina's peso system means jeans obligatory open simultaneous primaries which is to say that every single party Argentina has to do primaries as for every single level of office in every Argentine has to vote in those primaries. So this is an extreme form arm of democratization as the Argentines pose it but at the same time it has disadvantages and those those disadvantages can be similar to some of the ones we see in the United States. There certainly is the kind of personalism factionalism populism from the bottom to the top of the Argentine political system that we've talked about as a more generalized problem of primary systems in the world and of course the more inclusive this electorate when it comes to a very large select tourists. It's very hard for challenges to compete unless they have a lot of money of course and that brings us to the next component for judging a candidate selection system which is competition. Competition is key because without it you don't really have a democracy. There's no decision to make. I don't think people realize how significant candidate selection is. It's significant because many times the selector is really the elector meaning if the general election is not competitive who who the candidate is is the only decision that matters. That's not often the case in presidential elections in the US but it is often the case in congressional national elections. Like if you think of the United States and a good election ten percent of our seats are actually competitive. That means that the bodies Susan the candidates they're really choosing the representatives. It may seem like open. Primaries would be the most competitive system Kim since anyone can run and the public gets to vote. But that's not necessarily the case primaries give advantage to incumbents the people who have a lot of money and incumbents usually have a lot of money convincing the public to vote for you in a primary can be very expensive putting a premium on on name recognition and ability to fundraise that can decrease the world of possible contenders and decrease competition. Actually many sometimes the would be more competition in the more solicitous electorates. It's hard for political scientists to measure. How competitive a candidate selection selection system truly is but one way to do it is by looking at how often non incumbents win away slowly Lee? She asked what say Olympic in a study of Israeli parties were hot found. That closed systems are actually more competitive than primaries areas when party leaders make this electorate both more non incumbents win and more candidates are able to compete the next dimension of were Hans Rubric. Rubric is responsiveness. which gets that? What politicians do once? They're in office. So in terms of responsiveness we asked the question Christian okay so the candidate was selected and then elected and we of course assume that he or she they they want to be reselected reelected again. So who are. They're monsters to whom do are they responsive to who are are they accountable in the US. The primary electorate represents a very small and often skewed segment of the American public so politicians are accountable all to that group of people but they're not only responsive to those voters they're also responsive to their donors and the media and other darling of the tech world is his people to judge. We found donations to his campaign from network. CEO Reed Hastings Pinterest CEO closed systems. Politicians are first and foremost responsive sponsor to their parties. Goals again really on the Irish system. Individual members of parliament very rarely actually go against her vote against Their their parties and parties tend to take discipline fairly seriously and very often will suspend or even expel members of parliament's for voting against the party. There isn't a strong incentive to pander to outside interests because it's a small group of Party members that will determine whether you get nominated or renominated in thinking about responsiveness. It's important to keep in mind. The campaign finance laws are a major component in determining determining how parties prioritize policies in Ireland party finances so restricted at its. It's not really useful to think about parties as responding to the preferences references of Of donors parties are guided by their popularity. In the Irish context a candidate's nomination prospects are in the hands of the party. And the party's responsiveness. To monied. Interests is limited through strict campaign finance laws so very often the the parties will seek to enhance their popularity with the floating voter with with The largest percentage of the electors ad that they possibly can at last. We've you've reached the final stage of Rihanna four point rubric representativeness this one is pretty straightforward. Does the system select people who who are. Representatives of the larger populations demographics take gender for example when the parties are involved there is more representation at least in terms of gender. Can I be prime minister in another absolutely Donka Longa the late is not in the US even with open primaries the selectric after it does not necessarily choose people who are like them. Here's Jonathan Hopkin. A professor of comparative politics at the London School of Economics. If we look at WHO's in Congress aggress who gets elected president there. Generally man generally wiped generally wealthy rights. I think there's much more of a kind of premium on personal wealth and fitting into a very mainstream establishment kind of image in the US their interest groups in both parties that are focused on trying to diversify their candidates in terms of gender and to we'll lesser extent race. Here's representative. I think we need to encourage nontraditional candidates to run for office. Which is why I focus? Specifically on recruiting women on Recruiting Hispanic candidates recruiting African Americans in democracy is where parties are more hands on in choosing candidates. They can ensure diversity in a way. American parties can't good evening for weeks. We've watched politicians slugging it out together tonight. Last we hear the voters verdict today. Tell us who's one. Britain is one example of this hands on approach in nineteen ninety-seven. Tony Blair of the Labor Party wanted to have Many any more women in the British parliament. So what he did is in the districts in which he didn't have any incumbents they ran all women shortlists meaning that four or six women. Candidates competed for the candidacy of the Labor Party. Not In the electoral district that is they didn't allow men to compete only women and this way They made sure that women would be selected and then elected in Europe. I think there's much more likelihood that you can make it political legal career if you're a woman if you're not for wealthy background if you have no particular financial resources of your own in the same study of Israeli parties we mentioned earlier were hot also found the exclusive systems result in more women being nominated than inclusive ones in nineteen sixty eight. When Democratic acquatic activists began the process of changing how we nominate candidates in America? They were focused primarily on how inclusive our primary system. mm-hmm is. But that's just one dimension of a well functioning democracy and when you judge our system by things like responsiveness competition you were representativeness. Doesn't get great marks so at the end of each interview we did for this project. We asked ask the experts we spoke with if you could create a candidate selection system in the United States from scratch. What would it look like? And let's begin with Gideon Rod who prefers a multi step process. I came to the conclusion that the most democratic system would actually actually be a system that would allow different. selector ought to take part in candidate selection that is I would allow the smaller a body of the party to screen the candidates and then I will Allow wider audiences like party members or even party supporters to select from the shortlist. That Artie has screened. That's somewhat similar to the system that Elaine K.. Mark the author of the Book Primary Politics proposed it would be a hybrid between the party leaders and the voters odor's in the perfect system. I would have the caucuses the Democratic Caucus the Republican caucus in the congress all they deliver votes of confidence in the presidential candidates party leaders would ultimately endorse three candidates. You know I would just have some have three choices and say yes senator so and so and governor so and so and former defense secretary so and so they all have have the temperament and the background to be president of the United States. But those votes of confidence wouldn't be binding I would then let the voters go ahead and vote in primaries An elect delegates to the conventions. But they would have been forewarned that some people people the their peers think could be good presidents and other people their peers think could not be the idea of a middle ground between an open and closed system was popular among the academics. We talked to actually I the super delegates. Are I think a good voice in the party and Dan to restrict their voice bore probably not the best decision that's Barbara nor indoor professor in the School of Government and public policy. Let's see at the University of Arizona. Super delegates can give sort of they expert opinion and that goes along with the popular opinion that you get through the primary Mary so giving both kind of elements Some influences important. Another proposal for trying to achieve balanced was something along the lines of going back to the old pre nineteen sixty eight system. Here's Hans and all I would try to create a party convention where instead of the delegates at that convention being instructed directed by voters how they're supposed to vote instead say let's let's create a representative democracy where you get a diverse set of people who represent all the different factions within the Party and and then let them negotiate and choose a party leader fivethirtyeight contributor and Marquette University political scientist Julia Azaari is also on board with relying more heavily on a convention process but she stressed it would only work. If voters became more involved with their parties it would sort of involve a total revolution of political society. In some way in order for a convention to work like a representative democracy convention. Delegates would have to know what issues voters is care about and be accountable to those voters. I think one of the nuts. We haven't cracked is like how to get people interested in party politics when there's no whiskey at the polls. The the machine era had a lot of selective benefits for people to be involved in party politics. If you can get a job you can get you know if you needed some kind of material assistance. You could get that without getting more people involved in the party's it's possible that only the most extreme views in the party would be represented at this hypothetical convention. The the goal of a convention would be to find a consensus within a party. We actually put out a call to listeners of this very podcast to share their thoughts for remaking the primary system and they had a different idea about how to find a consensus. I think ranked choice voting from top to bottom should be mandatory. I think it would be good to go for Arinc choice method instead best decision. Making process is a ranked voting system. This way the most number of people are happy. Eh and the compromise is never the lowest common denominator we heard from a lot of ranked voting fans and for those who aren't familiar. Ranked choice. Voting is where you rank rank your preferences if no candidate has a majority of first choice votes the one with the least gets booted and those candidates votes go to the voters second choice that continues until someone has a majority okay back to the experts. Caitlyn Jewett political science professor at Virginia Tech also saw a convention system as appealing but with a big asterisk. I view that system as actually quite reasonable slow but I don't think it would ever fly with the American people. I think we are now. In era where the American people expect to the have a direct say in who becomes the presidential nominees but I very much recognized that the parties are private organizations and can do this however they want. I don't need to solicit The opinions of the American people short of a radical change Jewett supported getting rid of the the current sequential calendar. I would say that I would probably lean towards eliminating caucuses and establishing primaries in all states and probably lean towards a national primary day so that all states are voting at once that there is an unequal representation or influence wants across states. Sorry also wanted to get rid of the calendar but wasn't quite for a national primary. The counters bothered me for a long time. I think probably the most practical solution is the sort of regional rotating primary. Where the region's vote together? And do you switch off. Who goes who goes I or something along those lines? Or if the region's vote together you have groups of states that cross different regions. We did hear another argument for a national primary. Very though from Kenneth Baer a former Obama administration official and political analyst. I think the national primary could be a reform. That could really get out of this this this sense of Of the individual states that could have more of a say than others he said it seemed like a reform that could plausibly happen in America. Unlike perhaps some of the others in the current context where we are right. Now I think this is a reform not a radical upheaval and reform that potentially could lead to more participation into the system maybe rejuvenate some interest in health and our democracy Wayne Stagger a political science professor from Depaul University City doesn't think national primaries are the way to go. Yeah it would be more democratic. But what you're GONNA do with the national primary like that and at a potential run off is you're going to advantage vantage the candidates who are nationally known right off the front foreign and who can raise money and so lessening on candidates aren't going to have much of a chance even in that system mm-hmm and lastly Peter Savelli from wake forest. University suggested starting point is to standardize our system nationally. If I had to design the system from on the bottom up the first thing I would do is establish something that does not exist in the United States but that exists in almost every other democracy that I've seen in in the world which is some sort of federal electoral commission. We technically have a federal election commission. But it doesn't set election law nationally like it does in other countries. We do that fifty times in the United States right. It eats state level so my colleagues in Latin America will call me and say Hey Peter. I'm doing the project I'm primaries. Can you send me the primaries law. I'm like well get ready for fifty files because as we got fifty different laws. This is really unusual unusual in the world and kind of frankly a little bit crazy over the coming months. The process we've been discussing in this series series is going to play out before is the voices of a small number of unrepresentative. Voters will be empowered. You're from I o on the day the first voting in the campaign. The Iowa caucuses the biggest day so far in presidential politics entire states may be ignored. Mitt Romney Walk Away with more than half of the Super Tuesday delegates. He says it's time for his opponents to stand down. Cash and personality will likely upstage page governing know-how and at the end of it. All there may not be any clear consensus at all. Vote your conscience. Vote for candidates up and down the ticket who you. We don't know exactly how the Democrats nominating process will play out. But what we do now is that it doesn't have to be this way a We're at a moment in American history when dissatisfaction with the political process is rampant and ideas about how to change changed the system particularly from the left about a well-designed nominating process. Isn't a silver bullet. But it's a key component of a functioning winning democracy and as you heard at the beginning of this episode. How America chooses its candidates easing in the constitution? If the parties wanted wanted to change it they could just do it. So why don't they the the system as it works now. It would be very hard to change it because people are thinking that white participation is necessarily more democratic. I think they've been cowed K.. Mark is referring to the parties parties. I think they've been cowed by their activists and I think there's been a sort of absence of courage on the part of the parties. You can be hard to get used. Used to the idea that there's more to democracy than just voting You need to have really a very. How would I say that there? Should it'd be a crisis a real crisis. In order to promote a reform of this system says it would take a dramatic event to get the parties. You decide to change and K.. Mark says that moment may be approaching. Remember change happens in party politics mostly as a result of failure so we now have a president who could fail L. Dramatically in two thousand twenty and take down a lot of senators and governors and state houses with him a big. If that's the case then I suspect that that the reborn Republican party because there will be a rebirth of the party will take a long look at how it got itself itself a Donald Trump and may decide to start the reform process and as with the Democrats in one thousand nine hundred sixty eight when they kind of fell apart. Okay when one party starts to reform process it inevitably has consequences for the other party. Whether that moment is in twenty twenty or years from now there will almost certainly again come a time when the parties conclude that something has gone wrong that they aren't choosing the best candidates they could that it's time to change the system but as we learned over the course of this series. A A new system doesn't necessarily mean a better system to get that. The parties need to be thoughtful. Who are they listening to? And why and how are they aggregating all those voices after all no less is at stake. Then who will ovalles to lead the free The primaries project was reported by me. Gaylon Droop and produced by Jake Jake. Arlo did the engineering and scoring. Our editor was Chadwick. Matlin and my sweet Lord did the fact checking Tony Chow. Was Our technical director a special thanks to Timothy Bats for letting US use his constitutional convention Vidya and thanks to you listeners for listening to the primaries project if you enjoyed it tell your friends to check it out as well also if you WANNA learn more about how our primary system works head over to the fivethirtyeight Youtube Channel You can get in touch by emailing US at podcast at five thirty eight DOT com. You can also of course tweeted us with questions or comments. If you're a fan of the show leave us a rating or review in the Apple. podcasts store or again tell someone about us thanks for listening and we'll see you soon the.
AP Headline News Nov 07 2018 12:00 (EST)
"Before I was Queen Latifah. It was always my parents dream for me to go to college. And to this day. One of my biggest regrets is that. I never finished. I'm sure they would've traded any of my walks down a red carpet to see me walking cap and gown. My mom always told me education is the key to unlocking your dreams. That's the kind of belief Strayer has an each and every student. I'm not saying it's going to be easy. And that's what makes every class every exam all the hard work and every diploma more rewarding. It makes us all proud. I'll tell every straight student. I meet the same thing. Life has its peaks and valleys this all about how you handle yourself. Do those Bally's doesn't matter. How long you've been out of school or the first in your family to go to college. If you took time off to raise your kids, or if you're one career, but here another calling get started. You can us. Get it together Strayer university, go to stray oh dot EDU. To learn more Strayer university is certified to operate by chef. AP radio news. I'm Ed Donahue, President Trump is pleased with the results from election night last night, though, the majority in the house will belong to the Democrats. Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell is also pleased with the results. His majority remains the AP. Saga megani? Is at the White House McConnell says he was watching the news this morning. I said he's probably a rare opportunity to say McConnell smile. He says it's a good morning for Senate Republicans and President Trump deserves their thanks president was very helpful to us with the GOP losing house control McConnell says he spoke this morning with democratic leader Nancy Pelosi. We discussed ways we might be able to find a way forward citing infrastructure as one topic McConnell says he cannot imagine the Senate will take up immigration this year. Saga megani? At the White House university of Virginia political science professor Larry Sabato doesn't expect President Trump's strategy to change thrives on division. He will continue to divine because he believes that by dividing, he conquers, and he may be right. But of course, you can ask the question is this good for the country. We want to be the United States of America or the dish United States of America and the Georgia race for governor democrat Stacey Abrams and Republican Brian camper. Waiting for final numbers, Lauren. Grow war. Go with the Abrahams. Campaign says this is a tight race. Harry camp is just fifteen thousand five hundred thirty nine votes above the runoff threshold as you know in Georgia to get to an outright win. You must get fifty percent, plus one Stacey abra. Tmz if she wins. She would become the first female African American governor in Georgia Republicans also preserved governorships in key states, like Ohio and Florida. There are still undecided races for Senate in Florida as well as an Amazon a- and in the state of Montana. This is AP radio news. The migrant caravan has reached Mexico's capital they were a central issue in the midterm elections. President Trump called him an invasion thousands of immigrants who've walked through three countries in three weeks headed toward the US. Many say they're fleeing poverty and violence there in Mexico City now with they're being offered visas, but after an arduous trip and still hundreds of miles from the US border. They're taking at least a couple of days to decide what to do stay in Mexico or continue on to the US one woman from El Salvador asked why she should continue toward the United States. Just for them to turn me back. She said, I'm Rita Foley, head of Russia's federal security services attempted drone attacks worth warded during this year's World Cup in Russia. Alexander Bork, Nicole says his officers took measures to detect and foil attempts by terrorists use drones. He did not say who they were or how they were stopped. I'm Ed Donahue. AP radio news. There's a reason we invented things like same day delivery and PB and J in the same jar. We love convenience, which is what makes Permanente so special we offer healthcare and coverage together. So rather than having your doctor over here and your insurer. There we provide quality healthcare and coverage under one roof freeing, you up for other important tasks quick sandwich. Kaiser Permanente together we thrive. Visit KP dot org slash integrated customers hopefully with Millon estates, inC, twenty one St. rock in two zero eight five two.
AP Headline News Jan 09 2019 05:00 (EST)
"There's firefighter Raphael Puerto yet for firehouse subs. Introducing the new spicy Cajun chicken sub Cajun seasons grilled chicken, breast zesty, cherry peppers and housemaid Cajun male just five fifty five for immediate. Remember a portion of every sub you buy cubs. Provide lifesaving equipment for personal sponsors via subs until more subs saved. More lives. Limited time only plus tax participating locations by ourselves. With donate a minimum of one million dollars in two thousand nineteen to the firehouse subs public safety foundation by building point one one percent of every purchase the come of Brexit may not be certain. But one thing is clear. You business could face serious challenges enterprise. Orlands wind range of supports will help you plan innovate compete on diversify speak to your enterprise Arslan development adviser or visit prepare for breakfast Dodi an initiative of the government of Ireland. A radio news. I'm Rita Foley. President Trump will visit the US Mexico border tomorrow after telling the nation last night. There is a crisis there and the US must build a wall to resolve it in his national address, President Trump claimed there's a crisis on the border with Mexico, a crisis of the heart and a crisis of the soul. Critics call the security risks overblown and Trump is at least partly to blame for the humanitarian situation. Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer, and the Democrats response says the president has used the wall to divide the nation throughout this debate and throughout his presidency. President Trump has appealed to fear not facts Schumer says the president should reopen the government including agreeing to extend funding for homeland security to allow time for compromise. Tim McGuire Washington University of Virginia political analyst Larry Sabato says neither the president nor the Democrats are changing any minds. On this issue. So deeply divided that is the fundamental problem at the core of all of this. And we have a very very divisive president the most divisive in my lifetime. And I started with Truman this border. Battle has shut down parts of the government. This is day nineteen of the shutdown today. President Trump will visit the capital to meet with Senate Republicans he will meet with congressional leaders of both parties later today at the White House. A court filing says former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort shared political data during the presidential campaign with an associate accused of having ties to Russian intelligence, and then lied about it to federal investigators. It's the first time prosecutors have accused President Trump's chief campaign aide of sharing information in this situation. This is AP radio news. Warren Levinson reports from New York that the city of New York is now saying it wants to make sure everybody has health care coverage. Blasios says New York will spend up to a hundred million dollars a year to cover every city resident including immigrants here illegally healthcare is a human right in this city. We're going to make that a reality plan aims to reach six hundred thousand uncovered New Yorkers, including those who can't get coverage because of their immigration status. Those who consider themselves to healthy for health insurance. And those who find the Affordable Care Act coverage too, expensive, or too complicated. The plan is to more than double the city's public health insurance option within two years. Warren Levinson, New York police in Phoenix are working to get DNA samples from all male employees at a care facility were a patient who had been in a vegetative state for more than ten years gave birth to a baby. Boy, hacienda healthcare says it welcomes the DNA testing of its employees. I'm Rita Foley. AP radio news. News will your child's be ready for kindergarten at Chester broke academy. Preschool, the answer is yes. Our curriculum offers the perfect balance of learning in play our teachers personalized that experience for each child through engaging activities that develop the skills they need to be ready for what comes next attended Chester book academy. Open house on Saturday, January twenty six from ten AM to one PM to find a preschool near you. Click the banner or visit Chester Brooke academy dot com. That's Chester, Brooke academy dot com. The iphone ten are is here at T mobile. And there's a whole lot of love like taking those perfect new year new you portrait mode, selfish going share. It's the best way to stay connected to everyone you'll heart most in twenty nine so get ready to fall in love with by phone ten are on T mobile. The most loved and wireless. Call one eight hundred t mobile to learn more. Visit a store today.