22 Burst results for "Lael Brainard"
Sound ON
Fresh update on "lael brainard" discussed on Sound ON
"Goldman says yes. But can you pause today without people pricing in more cuts? That's going to be difficult. Ten seconds away, Mike McKee standing by, your equity market on the S&P 500, unchanged through most of today in the bond market yields allowed by four basis points. The two year 4.12% might be the key. It's a quarter point move for the fed to a range of 4.75 to 5% and a change in the statement guidance no longer anticipating ongoing rate increases. Instead, the committee anticipates some additional policy firming may be appropriate. They drop a reference to inflation easing in favor of saying it remains elevated. There is no change in where the firming ends, a median consensus of 5.1% again for the terminal rate and a slight lean to a hold for longer. The statement does acknowledge the recent bank issues. Quote, the U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. The statement says recent developments are likely to result in tighter credit conditions for households and businesses and to weigh on economic activity hiring and inflation. The extent of these effects is uncertain. In terms of the dot plot ten members saw 5.1% as a median terminal rate with 7 above, one put it as high as 5.9%. We do learn lael brainard was one of the lower ones on the dot plot. She had one of the two dots below 5.1%, and
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lael brainard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"About his accomplishments and what his successor lael brainard can do to help get inflation down. Lay all this going to be an extraordinary leader and counselor for the president just brings this breadth of expertise and context having not only been at the front and center of these macroeconomic debates, but also having worked at treasury and at the NEC previously as well. I think the core tools that the entire economic team and the president will have here are the tools to implement the historic pieces of legislation that we passed last year. You know, most of the work involved, whether it is prescription drugs or lower energy prices or more infrastructure. And semiconductor facilities that will help reduce price bottlenecks in our transportation system. All of those are coming online. 2023 and 2024 are going to be the big years of implementation of those provisions. There's a lot that we need to get right. There's a lot that needs to get done well in that context. But I think that's going to be the principal set of tools that the economic team and the president will have. Brian, I'm sure it's time for you to reflect back on what you've been doing here for the last two years. What are you proudest of as you look back in the accomplishments? Well, yeah, you're like, I'm proud of this team. I'm proud of this president navigating through a historically unprecedented period of time. I think the historically strong and equitable nature of this labor market recovery and this recovery over all is something that, you know, I think that the American people should take pride in. We've defied a lot of odds and also the fact that it was not it was not a straight line. We talked about it a lot over the course of time, but that we were able to get these three big pieces of legislation on infrastructure, chips, inflation reduction act that I think will provide a long-term public investment support. Get more of this and other conversations on the latest balance of power podcast. Listen on the Bloomberg business app, Bloomberg dot com and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Some bonds last a lifetime. Some bonds inspire confidence, and some you grow to rely on
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lael brainard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Stories in the market, swell the cost of living in the U.S. cooled a bit in January, but overall retail inflation does remain elevated. Wall Street's reaction shows that markets are still realizing inflation will likely remain higher for some time. So the question is, is the fed's fight to bring it down being complicated by that 2% inflation target? We spoke with Ken rogoff, the former IMF chief economist, he says the answer is yes. Back in the day, they should have set 3% instead of 2%. But they didn't. And they've really made commitments. If you change it, it means you might change it again. So I think what, in fact, will happen. I don't think we're going to have a soft landing, by the way, I think we're going to have soft, but not the landing. I think inflation, there can allow to be out there for longer, but they're going to say it's going to get back to 2%. We're just taking longer. I think that's going to be the rhetoric. That is Ken rogoff there. He went on to say the fed will have to figure out where to put the interest rate long-term so that the U.S. does not have an inflation problem. Well, in the wake of that CPI data, we had a number of fed officials saying that higher rates may be in place for a long period of time among them, the head of the Dallas fed Laurie Logan saying more may be necessary in the fed should not lock in on a peak rate or a precise path of rate increases, we also heard from the head of the Richmond fed Tom barkin. Here's what he had to say earlier on Bloomberg. We may or may not choose to take rates up further if inflation continues to persist. But we'll have to see what happens. If inflation settles, maybe we don't go quite as far. But if inflation persists at levels well above our target, maybe we'll have to do more. That is Richmond, president Tom barkin. Well, President Biden has named fed vice chair lael brainard as his top economic aide she will replace Brian deese as director of The White House national economic council. We have more from Bloomberg's Michael McKee. It has a lot of experience in Washington. She was deputy treasury secretary. She was the deputy head of the national economic council before. So she has worked on the political side for many years as well as on the monetary policy side. So she knows everything about what's going on in Washington. And she is also considered to be a very capable kind of, I don't want to use the word bureaucrat, but somebody who knows how to get things done. That is Bloomberg's Michael McKee, by the way, earlier today the fed said that brainard has submitted her resignation as fed vice chair, it will be effective on or around February 20th. We check markets every 15 minutes here on Bloomberg in Hong Kong to hang seng down nearly 1.4%. The cost be weaker by nearly 1.2% in Sydney ASX 200 down nearly 1.2%. And we're on the lunch break in Japan, the nikkei was last quoted weaker by four tenths of 1%. Global news, 24 hours a day powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts, this is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg law. A divided Supreme Court rejects a religious challenge. Tell us a little about the facts of the case. Peter views with prominent attorneys in Bloomberg legal experts. I guess his former federal prosecutor Jimmy Carroll joining me is Bloomberg long reporter Jordan Rubin. And analysis of important legal issues, cases and headlines. The Supreme Court takes on state secrets multiple lawsuits were filed against the emergency rule. Is this lawsuit for real? Bloomberg law with June Grasso from Bloomberg radio. Welcome to the Bloomberg launch show, I'm June grosso. I had this hour former vice president Mike Pence will fight the special counsel's subpoena using a novel theory, and why the FTC is stopping its in-house lawsuit challenging meta's acquisition of within unlimited. Former vice
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lael brainard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Gonna answer a whole lot of questions. It just kind of pushed the ball forward to the next data point. And the fed speak that we got today didn't really change either romaine. It was all about there's more work to be done. Which point out, of course, we talk about the lack of conviction in this market volume, like once again, for a second straight day, we are well below some of our more recent averages here when it comes to market across volume across the market. Here are your closing numbers here on the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is lower here on the day down about 5 tenths of a percent. Before we continue, though, we do want to get to some breaking news and this involves a national economic council and the Federal Reserve we're now learning that the president of the United States Joe Biden is going to tap the feds lael brainard to be his top economic adviser. There was a lot of discussion about the potential that she could move from her role at the fed into The White House to be the top economic adviser. I believe we have our Bloomberg international economics correspondent Michael McKee standing by right now. With a little bit more information on it. So not necessarily surprised, but give us a sense as to why brainerd he would ask brainer to make this move. Well, this was a trial balloon in The White House, did not shoot down. It has a lot of experience in Washington. She was deputy treasury secretary. She was the deputy head of the national economic council before. So she has worked on the political side for many years as well as on the monetary policy side. So she knows everything about what's going on in Washington. And she is also considered to be a very capable kind of, I don't want to use the word bureaucrat, but somebody who knows how to get things done. And that's going to be the important thing going forward for this administration with Republicans running the house, not much is going to pass, but implementing the inflation reduction act and the chips act are going to be important tasks for them plus coordinating the rebuilding of Ukraine and other parts of the world. Along with these romaine, along with her nomination, we're also seeing the president elevate Jared Bernstein to the head of the council of economic advisers because Celia rouse is leaving. And he has promoted Heather Boucher, who's a member of the council of economic advisers to chief economist to the invest in America cabinet, which is sort of an additional job, I guess, this will go along. But ramamurti will be deputy director of the national economic council. He is now but also adviser for strategic economic communications and Joelle gamble, who's the chief economist at the Labor Department, is going over to the NEC as another deputy director. All right, so Mike changing The White House C suite economic C suite if you will, to some extent, what I'm thinking about, though, is well brainard has been one of the more dovish voices on the fed, very key. One of the senior voices obviously is vice chairman or formerly as vice chairman of the Federal Reserve. What does this mean? What seems to be like a critical juncture for the fed as they try and figure out how long they continue to raise race rates. What does it mean by kind of taking away her voice? Well, she has been an advocate of what happens when you raise rates to people who are average working people. Does this hurt them? How are they going to get by when we're raising interest rates if unemployment starts to go up? So that voice will be lost for now unless she is replaced. But Jay Powell has also embraced that. So that may be okay. What's worse for the fed at this point, I think, is that she has been key person in operating the fed itself because she chairs four of their committees, including the payments committee, which is putting together and putting out this year, the new fed now instantaneous program, payment program, climate risk. She's very big on climate risk, financial stability, and the community reinvestment act. So she has a major role behind the scenes at the fed and it's going to be interesting to see how that gets divided up. Doesn't the fed vice chair need to be confirmed by the Senate as well? The fed vice chair would be if they appoint somebody new to replace her as vice chair. Sure, but if they elevate. She doesn't need to be confirmed to go to the national economic council. So they could elevate somebody who is already on the fed and they would have to be confirmed as the vice chair or they could appoint somebody new then make them the vice chair and they have to be yeah, because nothing's going to get done under this Congress. Yeah, that's a question about what a lot of speculation about who might replace her because this trial balloon has been out there for a little while. And while there are a lot of names, it isn't clear that anybody will get the job because The White House doesn't usually move that fast on the fed and you've got an election year next year. Absolutely, and go back to when she was selected because there was some pushback out there that maybe certain elements of wall streets or elements of the corporate world weren't necessarily her given her ideology as vice chair. But overall, I guess, kind of worked out. I mean, we didn't really get anything dramatic out of her, at least with regards to any pushback on those industries. Yeah, the biggest concern was her feelings about financial stability and regulation that she would push for those. And while she has the fed has deferred, and she has deferred to the other vice chairman Michael Barr, who was appointed and confirmed later. That's his lane. And there are concerns about where he's going to go with all of this. But lael has been pretty much more identified now with monetary policy. So less of an issue for her there. All right, I think so out there to
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lael brainard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Up two tenths of a percent or 20 points in the ten year treasury up one 32nd. He had 3.69% Nathan. Karen, we begin with the key inflation report that markets have been waiting for January's consumer price index is due out at 8 30 a.m. Wall Street time. We get a preview from Bloomberg's Michael McKee. Starting with the good news, headline inflation is forecast to have fallen again in January. But that's because of base effects, the fact that it was higher last year at this time. The bad news is on a month to month basis, January prices likely rose at a faster pace. Some things like gasoline and used cars rose in price. But the government is also rejiggering its seasonal adjustments to the weight it puts on various sectors. That will give the CPI a statistical boost. Bottom line markets in the fed will likely look through the report, anticipating some reversion this month. The fed doesn't meet again until March 22nd. Michael McKee, Bloomberg daybreak. Right, Mike, thanks, while we turn to The White House now, and it looks like President Biden is set to pick a new top economic adviser. We get the latest live with Bloomberg, Steve rappaport, Steve good morning. Good morning, Karen and Nathan. President Biden is Tapping Federal Reserve vice chair lael brainard for the job with an announcement coming as soon as today, according to people with familiar with the matter. As director of the national economic council, brandard will have a prominent role as the administration shifts focus to the implementation of laws such as the inflation reduction act. Her appointment to succeed NEC director Brian D's creates an opening on the Federal Reserve's board of governors as the Central Bank continues its campaign of pursuing aggressive interest rate hikes. Live in New York, I'm Steve rappaport, Bloomberg daybreak. Okay, Steve, thanks turning to Europe. We're seeing wages in the UK rise more than expected. Let's go live to London and get the very latest with Bloomberg's Ewan Potts. Good morning, Ewan. Good morning, Nathan and Karen average earnings in the UK excluding bonuses rose 6.7% in the three months to December from the previous year, ignoring the pandemic, that's the fastest pace since records began in 2001. The reading another sign of Britain's tight labor market will provide ammunition to bank of the policymakers to hike rates again next month. The latest inflation data comes tomorrow. In London, I'm mu and pots have been booked daybreak. You and thank you and Asia today, the yen is rising as kazuo oeda has officially nominated to helm the bank of Japan, analysts say the move will likely pave the way for a gradual pairing back of his Central Bank stimulus program and checking the yen now is it one 32 O 9 against the dollar. Now let's get to the latest developments on the China balloon incident. Washington and Beijing are weighing whether to hold a diplomatic meeting on the suspected spying device in the coming days. Amy Morris has details from our Bloomberg 99 one newsroom in Washington. Sources tell Bloomberg news that Secretary of State Antony Blinken is considering a meeting with Wang Yi, China's top diplomat had a security conference later this week. This would be their first face to face talks since the balloon uproar that led to a new spike intentions, senior officials say they have nothing official to announce. Blinken had called off his trip to Beijing last week after the U.S. identified the alleged Chinese spy balloon hovering over U.S. airspace. The U.S. says that balloon, which was shot down off the coast of South Carolina, was part of a global surveillance system since then three more objects have been shot down. In Washington, I made me Morris Bloomberg daybreak. Amy, thank you. The U.S. Military says it's recovered significant debris from the suspected spy balloon, but there's still a lot we don't know about the other objects taken down over the U.S. and Canada. That's according to Republican congressman dusty Johnson of South Dakota, who sits on the house China select committee. He wants to know more about China's motivations. Are they trying to probe our defenses? And is this the kind of traffic that's always been there and we're just doing a better job of catching it now or is this a new and perhaps more nefarious stage in the relationship between us and whoever's sending them? And Republican congressman dusty Johnson spoke with our Washington correspondent Joe Matthew on Bloomberg sound on, catch the show weekdays at 5 p.m. eastern on Bloomberg radio or listen anytime on demand wherever you get your podcasts. Let's take a look at the oil market this morning
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lael brainard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"We start today at The White House. We're waiting for President Biden who is scheduled to give some remarks about those M1 Abrams tanks that we'll be heading over to Ukraine. We will bring those remarks to you live when they happen. But that's not the only thing happening on The White House right now. There are reports, maybe about a change in the director of the national economic council. And for that, we turn to our Washington correspondent Anne Marie Horton, who is at The White House. Well, tell us about lael brainard. Yeah, so David, the number two at the fed might end up becoming the number one voice in the west wing when it comes to economic issues, lael brainard, her name is really at the top of the short list who is going to replace Brian deese, interviews are still ongoing. They have not made a decision yet. We should also note obviously there's other shake ups. We do have the chief of staff as well looking to exit. We know that mister Zion's will be taking over for mister clane. No one is leaving before February 7th but lael brainard is at the top of this list. I'm sorry Anne Marie. Emory, the only reason I understand is for the president of the United States, he's now in The White House. He's about to speak. Yesterday, Mark. 11 months since Russia's brutal full scale invasion of Ukraine. 11 months in which Ukrainian people have showed Putin and the world. The full force of their courage and the abdominal determination to live free. And through every single step this horrific war, the American people have been strong and unwavering to support and Democrats and Republicans in Congress have stood together. The United States has worked in lockstep with our allies and partners around the world to make sure the Ukrainian people are in the strongest possible position to defend their nation, their families, and against the brutal truly brutal aggression of Russia. I haven't seen the likes of this in a long time. The United States and Europe are fully united. This morning, I had a long conversation with our NATO allies. German Chancellor Schultz, French president Macron, prime minister sanook and the Italian prime minister maloney. To continue our close coordination and our full support of Ukraine, because you all know I've been saying this for a long time. The expectation on the part of Russia is we're going to break up. We're not going to stay united, but we are fully thoroughly totally united. We spring approaching Ukrainian forces are working to defend the territory they hold. And preparing for additional counter offensives. To liberate their land, they need to be able to counter Russia's evolving tactics and strategy on the battlefield in the very near term. They need to improve their ability to maneuver and open terrain. And they need an enduring capability to deter and defend against Russian aggression over the long term. The Secretary of State, the secretary of the military, behind me, they've been deeply, deeply involved in this whole effort. Armored capability as general Austin will tell you has been critical. And that's why the United States has committed hundreds of armored fighting vehicles to date. Including more than 500 as part of the assistance package we announced last Friday. And today, today I'm announcing that the United States will be sending 31 Abram tanks to Ukraine. The equivalent of one Ukrainian battalion secretary Austin has recommended this step because it will enhance the Ukraine's capacity to defend its territory and achieve its strategic objectives. The Abrams, thanks for the most capable tanks in the world. They're also extremely complex to operate and maintain. So we're also giving Ukraine the parts and equipment necessary to effectively sustain these tanks on the battlefield. When we will begin to train the Ukrainian troops on these issues of sustainment logistic and maintenance soon as possible. Delivering these tanks to the field is going to take time. Time that we'll see, we'll use to make sure the Ukrainians are fully prepared to integrate the Abram tanks into their defenses. We're also closely coordinated this announcement with our allies. The American contribution will be joined by an additional announcement, including that will be we'll be ready available in more easily integrated for use in the battlefield and the coming weeks and months of other countries. I'm grateful that Chancellor Schultz for providing German leopard two tanks and will lead an effort to organize the European contribution of two tank battalions for Ukraine. I want to thank the Chancellor for his leadership and steadfast commitment to our collective efforts to support Ukraine. Germany has really stepped up the Chancellor's been a strong, strong voice for unity, a close friend, and for the level of effort we're going to continue. Supporting Ukraine's ability to fight off Russian aggression to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity is a worldwide commitment. I just love to worldwide commitment. Last week, Germany and Germany secretary Austin convened the Ukraine defense contact group for the 8th time. This group was made up of some 15 nations, 15 nations. Each making significant contribution of their own to Ukraine's integrity. Each fully committed to making Ukraine remain strong and independent and able to defend itself against Russian threats and violence. I want to thank every member of that coalition for continuing to step up. The UK, the United Kingdom, recently announced that it's donating challenger two tanks to Ukraine. France is contributing AMX tens. Armor inviting vehicles. In addition to the leopard tanks, the Germany like the United States is also Germany is also sending a patriot remix battery. The Netherlands is donating to Patreon missile and launchers. France, Canada, the UK, Slovakia, Norway, and others have all donated critical air defense systems to help secure Ukrainian skies and save the lives of innocent civilians who are literally the target, the target of Russia's aggression. Poland is sending armored vehicles, Sweden is donating infantry fighting vehicles. Italy is giving artillery. Denmark and Estonia are sending howitzers. Latvia is providing more stinger missiles. Lithuania is providing anti aircraft guns and Finland
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lael brainard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Were up across the curve today. We heard from the vice chair of the fed lael brainard saying rates need to remain elevated for some period of time. Steven, thanks for being with us. Stephen Davies there founder CEO of javelin wealth management joining us here on daybreak Asia will give you a market update and a check on global news. That's ahead. This is Bloomberg. Bloomberg radio on demand and in your podcast feed. On the latest edition of the Tate podcast, a conversation with Fernando valley, a Bloomberg intelligence. China reopening kind of kick starting this supercycle in commodities. How long is that gonna take? It may take longer than expected for a couple reasons first. Just a contagion that we seen in the rising cases that's actually limiting the traffic. So if you look at the ridership, for example, in the Beijing subway, it's still about 30% of their usual levels pre lockdown. So we're still far away from a real impact on demand. And then I think what you said about the debt ceiling not to restart something. Please do. Tell me. Something to that could break. It's China is Japan. Those are all very severe risks in the short term that our headwinds for oil and oil consumption because as you said, there is an issue with how we fund our government and not just in the U.S. but globally and that if we have an issue there and that leads to lower demand because we had to either raise rates or just find a way of containing investments that will ultimately impact the oil consumption at least in the short term. How closely have you been watching the fed as an oil analyst for Bloomberg intelligence? Very closely. In fact, last year in our meteor outlook, we said the fed is the biggest risk for oil prices and lo and behold it panned out. And then we said China is the biggest risk. But we think the reopening will have an impact. It doesn't solve the Chinese consumer. It will improve the overall activity, but it doesn't solve it they're massively levered and their real estate
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lael brainard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Who upgraded the stock going into this earnings, the bullishness was around how Netflix's pace to deal with all of the issues this industry is facing. They have an ad supported tier that they feel is reasonably priced. Great pieces leads that. Meantime, Netflix ended last year on a high note, the company added about 7.7 million subscribers last quarter, analysts were predicting only 4.5 million. Netflix shares are up almost 7% in after hours and a reminder coming up in a few moments. We'll be chatting with geetha ranganathan, Bloomberg intelligence analyst on U.S. media and the specialist on Netflix. Well, today we heard from the vice chair of the fed lael brainard saying that interest rates will need to stay elevated for some time as a way of cooling inflation here she is, speaking at the University of Chicago, booth school of business. Inflation has declined in recent months, but inflation was very high. And it's going to take time and resolve to get it back 60%. Financial conditions have considerably over the past year as the Federal Reserve and central banks around the world have tightened policy considerably. Fed vice chair lael brainard now she did not say exactly what her peak rate was or what she envisioned it would be, and she didn't explicitly state a preference for whether the fed should downshift to a quarter point move at the next decision, and that Brian is well known will happen on February 1st. Absolutely can't wait, I'll be getting up
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lael brainard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"So within the last half hour we got the reading on third quarter GDP for Japan very weak, negative 1.2% on an annualized basis for Q three, the street was looking for positive 1.2%. The end right now much weaker one 40 35, the end week in quite a bit in New York trading, we were down around 8 tenths of 1%. The nikkei for the moment is essentially flat, the market in South Korea, positive with the ASX two check that the Cosby up two tenths of 1%. The ASX 200 in Sydney is down about two tenths of 1%. Stateside it was all about interest rates we heard from fed vice chair lael brainard saying the fed should soon moderate the size of those of fed rate hikes. I think it's fair to say that the market is already looking at a 50 basis point increase next month, which would be a little different than the 75 basis points that we have received over the prior four fed meetings. Today yields were up across the curve a ten year now in Tokyo at three 86, a two year at four 39 equities were weak in the U.S. session the S&P was down 9 tenths of 1%. We'll take another look at market action for you in about 15 minutes. Head Baxter has a look at global news headlines Ed. All right, thank you, Doug President Biden and she say they understand each other's position on Taiwan after their meeting yesterday, Biden saying he plans to dispatch Secretary of State Antony Blinken to cement what the two talked about. That talk actually was early this morning. U.S.. Now, there remains some major differences on trade, human rights, but both say they hope this opens the door for further talks, and the G 20 nations have agreed on a draft statement despite major rifts regarding Russian Ukraine will see what the final verbiage is. Australia's prime minister and Anthony albanese has announced he will meet in person with president Xi on the sidelines of the group of 20 today, control of the U.S. House of Representatives still not decided may not be until the middle of next week. University of Virginia student shot and killed three members of the school's football team as they returned to campus from a field trip, he is in custody. In San Francisco, I'm Ed Baxter. This is Bloomberg. I'm back to you. Douglas in New York City, thank you. Let's get to Katherine kaminski, she is chief strategist also p.m. at alpha simplex group on the line from Boston. So I referred to the story on China. Last Friday we had some sweeping relaxations of controls not only on the property market but COVID policy as well. Look at the market in Hong Kong Friday, the hang seng was up 7.7% yesterday we gained about 1.7%, but the market in the Hong Kong finished off the best levels. Is it a time to look at EM particularly in Asia if you can kind of establish the notion that maybe maybe China's economy is going to begin to recover soon? That's a good point. I mean, if you look at the relative size that you saw in EM versus the U.S., I mean it's pretty it's a pretty big difference. I mean, and you've really seen a lot of a lot of value taken out of some of those indices, so it could be an interesting point right now to reinvest. And I think that's probably why you're seeing a lot of investors doing that. Because they're thinking, you know, it could be a good time to see the tide turn. Yeah, looking at this GDP number that we got out of Japan a short while ago, negative 1.2%. I'm just wondering in my own mind whether this reflects the weakness of the Chinese economy because Japan does rely on China. It exports a great deal into that economy. So I think it's fair to say that so much of the world, particularly the Asia Pacific relies on a very, very strong China and it seems as though now that we're on the other side of the party Congress, Beijing has got that message and and may be a small modification in the COVID policy as well could help out. But is there a segment of the Chinese market that you would look to put money to work in? Yet we were talking yesterday about some of the relaxations that the property market may benefit from. And I'm wondering whether or not there are segments like property that have been so decimated that you feel like, okay, I'll take a flyer and I'll put some money to work there. I mean, I think that's a good point for us, it's probably something more of a commodity story. Anything linked to commodities and anything linked to a resurgence in demand is going to mean positive opportunities, whether it's outside China insect China. So I think that's something that I would probably want to think about. We're still not seeing that yet. I mean, we're still seeing lack of demand for things like oil and other products. So I think eventually you're going to start seeing some sectors that have been much more affected by this situation coming back. So I guess it's good to see that there is some chance of a buying opportunity right now. Yeah, to your point today, OPEC cut its demand to outlook for global crude and we were down quite a bit in New York trading and we were weaker still here in the electronic session around 85 40 and WTI. I want to get your take on crypto. Maybe you don't play in this space. Okay, I get it. But in terms of the psychological impact, when you have a crypto chaos story that's been kind of playing out now for it seems like days and days and a major meltdown in one of the key crypto exchanges, how do you read this in terms of its impact on overall market psychology? Well, I think it's been a really interesting environment for that because a lot of people started asking us before these situations is crypto as safe haven asset. And it's kind of funny when you think about it at this point now that it's just an asset that is highly volatile and volatility goes both directions. And I think this is what we're starting to see is that there are a lot of cracks and
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lael brainard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Not slowing down his campaign, Politico reports he's received three quarters of a $1 million in ad spending from the Trump backed super PAC make America great again that says the former NFL star has been dog by allegations he paid the mother of one of his children to have an abortion over a decade ago. Walker denies the story, it's been an emotional weekend for many in Florida coming home to what's left of their homes after hurricane Ian, reporter Cathy parkes in the hard hit Fort Myers beach area. Jerry R trip went in knowing there would be devastation. But he wasn't prepared to find his home flattened. My House is gone. The storm is blamed for more than a 130 deaths making it the deadliest hurricane to hit Florida since 1935. Texas governor Greg Abbott says there will be no pardons for marijuana offenders in his state that from the Republican after President Biden announced a mass pardon of those convicted of federal marijuana possession. I'm Scott Carr. You are listening to Bloomberg opinion. I'm Bonnie Quinn. By the way, do get in touch, comments and opinions always welcome at Molly quin Twitter or email vin at Bloomberg .NET. Now to the markets and another whippy week to start October Bloomberg market senior editor Mike Regan joins. All right, Mike, well, this week we saw stocks rebound, but it was more like perhaps a short squeeze, maybe a little bit of bargain hunting, but now we're seeing some kind of consolidation though again. It could still be just a reaction to headlines, such as the OPEC plus cuts. Where is Wall Street right now on the fourth quarter? Well, I think you're right that this rebound in stocks we saw was a little bit of short squeeze and also the drop had been so severe that valuations started looking attractive. But I think another thing that's really driving it is what I think of as sort of wishful thinking that some of the central banks around the world are poised to be a little less aggressive with their interest rate increases. For example, a reserve bank of Australia only raised rates by a quarter of a percentage point, many people were expecting much more and prior to that the Bank of England announced that it would start buying that country's bonds to sort of shore up the bond market there that was in turmoil. So the sense I think a lot of people have is that the fed doesn't want to sort of break anything with their interest rate increases if they tighten financial conditions enough that it causes problems in the financial system that they will either pause or be less aggressive with rate hikes. And I just thought wishful thinking because I think that's possibly what it is right now. It very well could be true that the markets are right in sensing a less aggressive fed. I think it's just more hope that that's the case. Yeah, because when you think about it, Australia is a very different economy and interest rate increase in Australia affects a lot more people a lot faster, housing is much more to do with variable rate mortgages than it is in the United States. And if you look at England, well, there's a whole lot of idiosyncratic problems in England, so I guess I agree with you that maybe Wall Street is being a little bit hopeful if we think about what Mary Daly said this week. She pointed to real wage growth and pointed out that real wages are actually falling 9% and let's just have a listen to what she actually said. Unlike it's a great time to be a worker. It workers and I have all this power. I don't see a lot of power if you're real wages are falling 9%. And so that is sort of an example of why inflation is a corrosive. If we let it go, it's a corrosive disease. So yeah, Mary Daly is the San Francisco fair to labor economist, her eyes are clearly on the labor market, but I mean, she kind of speaks for many of the fed members these days. Yes, I think that's an absolutely correct interpretation of her remarks. And a lot of the remarks really that we've heard from the fed. The one sort of limb that a lot of people grasp onto as lael brainard of the fed, very influential member of the fed said something to the effect of they are monitoring or stresses in the financial system and that they don't want to aggravate anything like that. But I agree that most of the commentary from the fed has been look inflation is our biggest problem. We are going to solve that before we worry about anything else basically. So that is kind of why I think it's a little bit of wishful thinking in the market that they are used to be a little bit less aggressive. But to get back to the start of the conversation, the stocks had fallen so much as of last week, we are setting new lows in the major benchmark indexes, evaluations started to look attractive again. Assuming you can put some faith into the earnings estimates for the rest of the year next year, which to be honest, not a lot of people are. They expect those earnings estimates to come down. But it does sort of present an opportunity for many investors to come in and say, okay, this might be the time to buy even if it's just a short term rebound because we've seen that all year. Stocks would fall very aggressively, then we'd have a very sharp rebound and then they'd fall even further set new lows and then another rebound. So I think that rhythm think declines and then a fierce rebound have a lot of people trying to perhaps guess that this is another one of those occasions where we'll get a nice strong rebound, even if it doesn't mean the bear market is over for good. There are these tactical opportunities to catch a bear market rebound like we've seen this year. Well, you mentioned companies and Helen of Troy, the maker of oxo kitchen tools and hot tools curling irons. Basically, the maker of lots of things that people use around the house that are not extremely expensive, they said that consumers are delaying purchases and trading down. Are we seeing the beginning of what could be a more chilling earning season? I think we are. And they are one of several companies FedEx being another Nike, CarMax. A lot of companies have sort of pre announced or at least given some sort of outlook for the rest of the year and for perhaps early next year suggesting that, yes, consumer demand is calling off. But not only that, the strong dollar this relentless rise in the dollar we've seen all year is very bad for companies that depend on overseas sales. If you're selling products in Europe in Euros and then converting it back to dollars, you're really getting hurt on that foreign exchange conversion back in the dollars when it's the strong. So there are a lot of people racing for some disappointments in the earnings season, especially from the outlook perspective, the forecast for the rest of the year. And next year. That's why I say, you know, the valuations look cheap if you look at say a PE ratio of the S&P 15 plus change or something now, right? Yeah, yeah, it looks attractive when looking out at what is expected for next year's earnings, where the next 12 months earnings. But a lot of people are thinking, well, we can't really put a lot of faith in those earnings estimates right now because of all these issues. And that company you pointed out, being a prime example of that. And your identity, in fact, actually pointed out in one of his notes that 15 looks cheap, but we could actually see the forward going down into the single digits. Mike, how if at all are the convulsions in the UK markets bleeding over to the U.S.? They definitely caused a lot of volatility when Liz trusts announced her economic plans. I mean, we saw that weakness in the pound and a rise in interest rates, a very dramatic and disturbing rise in interest rates in the UK. So it did cause some added risk aversion in the U.S. markets and global markets really, but they've kind of snapped back from that because of the actions by the Bank of England and even the UK government softening
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lael brainard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Analysts today at IBKR dot com slash GA. So some gains on Wall Street are looking like Asian stocks may post their first win in about 6 sessions. Let's get the latest with Bloomberg's Brian Curtis in Hong Kong Brian. Yeah, in one of the most interesting moves was from oil, WTI falling into a death cross pattern where he had the 50 day moving average moving below the 200 day. And so we had a huge drop there, 5 and a half percent, traded below $82 for a while, just picking up a little bit at the moment Juliet, WTI trading at 82 18 a barrel and Brent last traded at $88 right on the button. But we had a number of other factors really you saw a U.S. equities rising the most in about a month as treasury yields eased back a little bit there. We had the yield on the ten year down to 3.26% two year down to 3.43%. So coming down some 7 basis points or so. And we also had lael brainard saying that the fed doesn't want to over tighten. Now she said all the right things as well for those that are looking for consistent policy from the fed. She said that the fed will fight inflation until the job is done, but she did mention that that they don't want to go too far and although that might seem obvious, it did fuel some buying. And we'll have more on what we heard from some of the fed speakers in a moment. Apple gained a little under 1% after rolling out new devices and not raising prices got some attention. So the future is here and the cash markets, the nikkei is up 1.2% now. The ASX 200 is up about a tenth of 1%, and it cost me has opened up around two thirds of 1%. And that is a check of markets, jewels. Thanks, Brian. Well, as you say, oil tumbling to the lowest since January, U.S. benchmark WTI sinking below $82 the global Brent benchmark down below 90, Bloomberg's sukin and also tells us why. We've got growing fair that China COVID zero policy means even more lower demand from the biggest consumer of oil. We've got a surge in dollar which is bearish for commodities in general. We've got the U.S. government cutting its annual oil production targets for the third month in a row, and that slimmer four cast really adds another layer of worry on a market dealing with unprecedented volatility since war in Ukraine. Crude has made a soft start to September extending a run of three monthly losses, and that is the longest streak in more than two years. While high prices and a tight labor market weighed on U.S. economic prospects over the next year, although inflation shows signs of decelerating, this is according to the fed in its latest beijo. Still, fed officials have continued with the hawkish rhetoric. Cleveland fed chief Loretta mestis is the fed's benchmark will get above 4% by early 2023, and they won't be any easy next year. Fed vice chair Lao Bernard says that rates will need to be raised to restrictive levels for some time, and at the same time, braynard has struck a balanced tone in her first policy speech in some months. At some point in the tightening cycle, the risks will become more two sided. The rapidity of this tightening cycle and its global nature, as well as uncertainty around the pace at which the effects of those tighter financial conditions are working their way through the economy, create risks associated with over tightening. And if history is any guide, it's important to also to avoid the risk of pulling back too soon. So advised Jeff has supervision Michael Barr also said data will drive the decision on the size of the next rate increase, fed officials have said a 75 basis point move could be on the table when they are next meet on September 20th. Coming up, we're going to join Vishnu verathon head of economics and strategy at Mizuho bank, but now it is coming up to 5 minutes past the hour time for
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lael brainard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Do you Federal Reserve vice chair at lael brainard today said half point raises over the next few months are reasonable for more we bring in Bloomberg's Abigail Doolittle for more on this Abigail I guess we can say goodbye to a September pause It sounds like that is the case or at least that is the jaw boning on the day of course fed chair or excuse me vice chairman of the Federal Reserve Leo brainard earlier today In an interview with CNBC did make that case saying that it's reasonable to expect to 50 basis point cuts over the next two meetings and that there's no reason for a pause in September Now this seems to be a bit of a walking back to some of the color that came out of the FOMC minutes for the last meeting when there was the room for flexibility So it seems as though maybe the Federal Reserve is going to continue on this hiking path in a more aggressive way than folks had thought last week And remember of course last week we had a big rally a piece of that idea that maybe the Federal Reserve was not going to be as aggressive What makes it so interesting Joe initially stocks really did take a leg lower on those comments And now we have the S&P 500 up about 9 tenths of 1% the adage sell in May and go away is not true Right now through the beginning of May the S&P 500 is higher How about that I guess anything can happen in this particular market When we consider the fed how important is tomorrow's jobs report in determining the way forward It's very important Right now the survey is calling for a little more than 300,000 jobs to be added for the month of May down from April and as we had been discussing earlier it's important that that number comes in right around that number or even a little bit lower because yesterday we had that stronger than expected ISM number that print which is good news but good news is bad news because it supports what layer layer brain et cetera earlier today that perhaps there won't be a pause that there's no reason to have a pause because the economy is still perhaps what some might consider to be a little bit hot It's hard to call it hot at this point because a 56 print on the ISM while certainly is an expansion isn't overly overly expansionary It's certainly strong but nonetheless in the expectation of this tightening environment you want a Federal Reserve you want numbers that come.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lael brainard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Is Bloomberg daybreak Asia for this Wednesday April 13th in Hong Kong Tuesday April 12th in New York coming up this hour U.S. consumer prices rise in March to a record high fed governor lael brainard says the fed is steadily tightening policy to a neutral rate and China is stepping up stimulus with infrastructure bonds We'll take a look at those stories coming up here on daybreak Asia We're also standing by for a press briefing from New York City officials in regard to today's shooting at the city's subway system in Brooklyn Want to cross first to Los Angeles Brian Curtis is looking at markets Brian All right Doug thanks very much Well stocks in Asia looks set for kind of a mixed start We had a lot of action in markets in the past 12 hours or so but not so much inequities Oil jumped back above $100 a barrel and that will certainly add to some of these worries about inflationary pressures They look to stay elevated and perhaps to cut back on economic growth Let's take a look at equity futures briefly hangs in index futures down about four tenths of 1% China futures up about two tenths of a percent S&P E minis are gaining a little bit here It was a fairly muted session when it was all said and done although we had big gains early in the day on Wall Street but then in the end we finished down the S&P 500 off about a third of 1% NASDAQ down about three tenths of a percent and the Dow Jones Industrial Average losing about a quarter of a percent The session was shaped by the latest inflation print It showed an 8 and a half percent jump in the headline number the highest in four decades but some moderation in the core gauge that excludes volatile food and energy prices So there was a lot there for both the bulls and the bears some took some heart in that number The yield on the ten year down to 2.72% so it was a drop of more than 5 basis points the two year at two 40 so the spread there 32 basis points and let's get the update on oil WTI crew here one O one 57 barrel Douglas to you All right Brian thanks so much Well one of the big stories in the U.S. today had to do with the consumer price index report that the core reading came in below estimates Now the increase in the overall rate of U.S. retail inflation is the steepest in more than 40 years Today we heard from fed governor lael brainard she echoed the fed's commitment to combating rising prices She told The Wall Street Journal the fed will move expeditiously and the tightening will come through the combination of balance sheet reduction and interest rate hikes The combination of policy actions along these lines should bring the overall policy stance to a more neutral setting over time But it's important to note that I don't look at one number And I certainly don't just look at the policy rate because it's the combined impact of our balance sheet and the policy rate on financial conditions Now brainers reference to a neutral setting addresses the level of interest rates that neither speed up nor slow down the economy Paul Yes two minutes past the hour Now it's time for check of global news.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lael brainard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"He told lottery officials he was in paying attention when he picked the ticket and it was a fluke The man says winning the prize hasn't sunk in yet I'm Brian shook And I'm Doug prisoner at Bloomberg world headquarters in New York Let's check this hour's top business stories on the markets Markets are still reeling from a shock delivered by fed governor lael brainard who said the fed will shrink its balance sheet at a rapid pace as soon as May She said caps to govern the pace of asset roll offs could be significantly larger and phased in much faster than the last time around She made no mention of outright asset sales We have the entire U.S. yield curve moving up with a ten year treasury now in the Tokyo session just under 2.60% a two year at two 57 Now the emphasis on balance sheet reduction as opposed to interest rate hikes sent long-term interest rates higher in the U.S. session so as a result we do have positive slope to the U.S. yield curve JetBlue Airways has made an offer to acquire spirit airlines this offer is roughly $3.6 billion the unsolicited bid could potentially spoil sprint's planned merger with frontier airlines shares in JetBlue are down 7% in the regular session We had shares in sprint rally 22% and shares in frontier were higher by nearly 4% in the regular session and Twitter has named Elon Musk to its board of directors one day after disclosing that Musk now is the social media companies largest shareholder We check markets every 15 minutes here on Bloomberg Right now in Hong Kong the hang seng is weaker by 1.7% in Tokyo the nikkei down more than 2% on the Chinese mainland Shanghai composite weaker by three tenths of 1% in Seoul that Cosby is off 1% and in Sydney the ASX 200 weaker by 8 tenths of 1% Crude oil is continuing to retreat WTI now one O one 50 in the electronic session weaker by four tenths of 1% Global news 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg quicktake powered by more than 2700 journalists.
CNBC's Fast Money
"lael brainard" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money
"Equity. These go up immediately. So just to be clear, these are sensitive. These are libor plus. And I think we have a consumer that is very much addicted to low rates. And I don't think we've seen that. So that's what equities can't do until we get there, even though the market is a discounting mechanism. So two points, I want to make the first what 18 you had a very different administration that was just pounding on the fed, tweeting all the time. You got to you got a lower rate. You got a lower rates. I don't think we're in that environment anymore. For the 4 trillion, that's one reason, but also this is a different administration. And I think that this fed will try to be less beholden to the market. The administration is more worried about inflation right now. Think about that. So listen, it's different. My point is, is if we have material slowdown and I'll go back to you. They're going to have to get a bit more dovish because the rates have already moved in front of it. That's why we have this inverted yield curve, right? So they're not going to be able to go meaningfully higher here, but right now, in 2022, in the midterms, they're worried about inflation. At some point, as you get closer to that, I think they switch. I mean, I think what lael brainard said today in her testimony was key, and that is, you know, if you take a look at lower to middle income households, they spend 70% of their household income on necessities, things that are more subject to inflationary pressures guide. And that's what's going to be squarely in fed focus. And I hate to put these two things together, but it is a midterm election year, and we can't ignore that fact either. No, yeah, absolutely. Everybody's point. Absolutely not. And what's different from now and October November, December of 2018 is nobody uttered the word inflation for basically a decade. Now it's on top of mind for everybody, rightly so, by the way. And I'm glad that these fed officials are so concerned about Middle America and people are living paycheck to paycheck because they got what they asked for. They've been begging for inflation for ten years and now they've got it. They always thought they could control it. Clearly that's not the case. So will they overshoot? They have to. They have no choice. The next CPI readings have a 9 handle on it. When was the last time you saw that? I don't know about that. I mean, 7.9 was pretty high since the 80s, Tim, right? Well, it is. And I think we've all discussed both the lag effect of first of all, whether you have the bulks, these things that are probably a 9 month delay. I don't think we've even started to see where labor price inflation goes. I think you just get back to a case where the consumer who has also been thrown money. We gave away 25% of GDP in the last couple of years. The most important in inflationary impact. And this is empirical. It's been studied. It's not the rates at zero. It's the QE. And if you look at the four different QE periods that we've had. And I think the unwinding of the balance sheet, which is what she talked about today. And that was what was different about this versus some other stuff. Is the part that I am most worried about in terms of the impact of what it does to both the markets and the consumer. And again, remember the fed portfolio we talked about during COVID in the early days. It's up there going in and buying. We were wondering why they were buying triple-A Apple debt. We were wondering why they were going in and buying stuff that wouldn't really interest rate sensitive. All right, so let me ask you this. You just talked about banks carrying before. What are they telling you? I'm looking at the mega cap names that are where they trade kind of elevated here. And the bank stocks going into their earnings next week. We know JP is going to report on the 13th and a few others. It's just a few bucks over its lows. I mean, they trade horribly. And I'd like to think that investors and bank stocks like big investors, they're doing smart things in front of events like that or periods. I'm just curious because to me, not encouraging. So the bank stocks, how they trade before earnings has not been a good indicator of those earnings at all. In fact, it's terrible. Right. They trade well. They've been earning well for a while, right? We're put aside reserves huge reserves during the pandemic and yet still were able to make money, then they were able to reverse some of those reserves. And so I think three or four times they traded really well into earnings and really got out on the precipice of something. That's kind of my point. That to me is one of the big risks. We have the precipice of something I always look at the HYG. I always look at the LQD. Right. Credit is just starting to widen a little bit. This in itself, the magnitude of the move today, nothing to worry about, but if you get a couple days of it, credit, it's a psychological thing. People start to get nervous. That to me is one of the bigger risks. Let's turn out to a developing story in the airline space spirit airlines stock jumping up the company said a received an unsolicited takeover.
WABE 90.1 FM
"lael brainard" Discussed on WABE 90.1 FM
"Chair of the Federal Reserve spoke before the Senate banking committee at her confirmation hearing today In her opening statement lael brainard pointed to the strong economic recovery over the past year then brought up the issue of rising costs But inflation is too high and working people around the country are concerned about how far their paychecks will go Let's bring in NPR's Scott horsley who's been watching the hearing high Scott Hi good to be with you Good to have you The issue front and center at the hearing is of course inflation What stood out to you in the hearing today Just as fed chairman Jerome Powell did it his own hearing earlier this week brainerd stressed the Central Bank is focused on inflation and that it's ready to crack down For most of the last two years the fed has been primarily concerned with propping up the economy and getting people back to work which is one of its two main goals but the other goal is stable prices and right now that has moved to be very much the front burner issue for the fed not surprisingly Of course this week we got the inflation report for December which showed consumer prices climbing at the fastest pace in almost 40 years and it's no longer just a few pandemic sensitive items where the prices are going up inflation was north of 3% in more than two out of three spending categories that the government keeps track of I want to play this exchange with senator Elizabeth Warren here it is What if inflation is caused by kinks in the supply chain Prices jump because the supply chain is just not functioning Does the fed have a tool to deal with that No we have a tool that operates on the demand side which is the federal funds rate So how much our supply chain issues contributing to rising prices and can the fed do anything to address them Yeah it certainly part of the problem and know the fed doesn't really have tools to deal with that as brainerd said A good example here is the rising price of new and used cars which has been one of the big drivers of inflation over the last year That's mainly the result of that computer chip shortage which has limited carmakers ability to produce as many cars and trucks as consumers would like The fed can't more computer chips It can't fix that supply problem What it can do is tamp down on demand by raising interest rates and brener and her colleagues are prepared to do that They're hoping they won't have to clamp down on demand too much They are assuming that there will be some improvement in the tangled supply chains at some point over the course of the year and senator Warren said she hopes the fed won't overreact here because if the fed hits the brakes too hard that could stall the economic recovery So you talk about brainerd mentioned interest rates Is that the only tool that fed can use to get inflation under control at this point That's the main tool There are other steps that fed can take its pumped a lot of money into the economy since the pandemic began and it can gradually pull some of that money out which is another way to tamp down on demand But raising interest rates is the fed's primary inflation fighting weapon When fed officials met back in December most said they expected to raise interest rates at least three times this year each time by a quarter percentage point Some policymakers are now saying we could see four rate hikes this year and forecasters think those rate hikes are likely to begin sooner than had been expected Maybe as early as March Really quickly does lay brynner and have a clear path to confirmation I think so She did get some pointed questions from Republicans on the committee today particularly in the area of climate change which some GOP.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lael brainard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"A holiday parade tragedy a vigil was held this evening in Waukesha Wisconsin where 5 people were killed and more than 40 others were injured yesterday when an SUV barreled into the parade crowd Police chief Daniel Thompson identified the suspect Mill through 9 years of age who was a resident of the city Milwaukee 5 films of first degree intentional homicide with additional charges based on the investigation The White House is touting 95% compliance with a COVID vaccine requirement for the federal workforce That includes government employees and contractors and numbers around 3.5 million The prosecution is preparing to deliver its rebuttal tomorrow in the closely watched trial of three men accused of killing ahmaud Arbery after closing arguments got underway earlier today The three white men are accused of murdering Arbery last year in Georgia while he was out for a jog I'm Brian schuck And I'm Brian Curtis in Los Angeles Let's get you caught up on this hour to stop business stories and the markets President Biden has selected Jerome Powell for a second term as fed chair He also elevated governor lael brainard to vice chair The nominations are expected to help maintain consistency at the Central Bank It comes as the Federal Reserve grapples with the fastest inflation in some three decades Well the fed might need to remove monetary stimulus faster than planned That's according to Atlanta fed president Raphael bostic He commented a few hours ago on Bloomberg radio Well I think there are good arguments to be made that we really should be considering fast We execute the taper There's a lot of uncertainty in the market inflation as you noted is at a very high level And I think it's important that if we need to be moving interest rates that we get the taper out of the way first So a faster taper would certainly give us more optionality as we move into 2022 and see where the data takes us That was Atlanta fed president Rafael bostick heard.
AP News Radio
Biden to keep Powell as Fed chair, Brainard gets vice chair
"President Biden says he's nominating Jerome Powell for a second term as federal reserve chair in a statement the president endorses Powell's stewardship of the economy throw brutal pandemic recession in which the feds ultralow rate policies help bolster confidence and revitalize the job market Biden also says he'll nominate Lael Brainard the only Democrat on the fed's board of governors as vice chair the number two position two other slots on the fed's board remain vacant as does the position of vice chair for supervision of bank regulatory post Biden says those positions will be filled early next month my camp in Washington
Bloomberg Radio New York
"lael brainard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Futures are little change this morning 5 O one on Wall Street and we check the markets every 15 minutes throughout the trading day on Bloomberg S&P futures again little changed up a point down futures down 16 NASDAQ futures up 24 Ten year treasury of 6 30 seconds he had 1.46% John And Karen will have more in the markets in a minute but first let's begin with the Federal Reserve as Jay Powell's term as chair runs out It looks like lael brainard is talking with The White House about the position Let's get the latest live with Bloomberg's ready to yawn Good morning Renee Good morning John Sources tell Bloomberg news that Federal Reserve governor Lille brainerd was interviewed for the Central Bank's top job when she visited The White House last week This signals that current chair Jay Powell has a serious contender So far only the two have publicly surfaced as candidates We're told that has also been considered for vice chair of the Central Bank Powell's current term is fed chair expires in February and the president says he'll move quickly to fill the spot Live in New York I'm ready to young Bloomberg day break Ready to thank you at the same time the Federal Reserve is issuing a warning on risky assets The Central Bank says rising valuations are making risk assets more susceptible to collapse if the economy has a downturn We get the story from Bloomberg sternly pellet The fence warning came in its twice yearly financial stability report and its sighted stable coins as an emerging threat The fed said asset prices remain vulnerable to significant declines should investor risk sentiment deteriorate progress on containing the virus disappoint or the economic recovery stall The Central Bank also said stable coin threats are growing that fragility in China's commercial real estate sector could spread to the U.S. if it deteriorated dramatically and the difficult to predict volatility similar to this year's meme stock frenzy could become more frequent a social media increasingly influenced trading In New York Charlie palette Bloomberg daybreak Thanks Charlie On the economic front this morning we're going to get the first of two key reports on inflation Economist predict producer prices rose half a percent in October That data due out at 8 30 a.m. Wall Street time Well John inflation concerns are having an impact on the cryptocurrency market Bitcoin and ether are trading at all time highs this morning Bloomberg markets reporter Heather Burke has more It seems one reason could be inflation hedging low real yields I mean you've got the yield on 30 year treasury inflation protected securities at a record low And there's son of ongoing concerns about inflation risk in the global economy Bloomberg Heather Burke says Bitcoin is up 10% over the past three days and checking Bitcoin right now It's up another 3% at $68,176 And oil is also higher this morning Traders are waiting for signals from The White House on whether it's going to tap the strategic petroleum reserve The energy secretary Jennifer grant Holmes says President Biden may make an announcement about oil prices this week Checking crude right now Nymex crude is up 88 cents at $82 81 cents a barrel Well John the rise in energy prices and other consumer goods has come as President Biden's approval ratings Wayne David palaeologus has director of the Suffolk university political research center in Boston The same people who gave by the low marks and approval we only had Biden at 38% approval and 59 disapproval but those same people gave extremely high marks to the hard infrastructure Bill And President Biden will be taking to the road to tout that infrastructure Bill short life second universities.
The Breakdown with NLW
Bitcoin Isn't Acting Like Stocks, Stocks Are Acting Like Bitcoin
"What's going on guys. It is thursday march fourth. And today i am going to try to flip a mental model. Here's my proposition. Bitcoin is an acting like stocks right now. Stocks are acting like bitcoin so it started this conversation. We need to hop on over to twitter where there is a lot of discussion right now around. Rising treasury yields when the year started the ten year treasury yield was at zero point nine three percent versus the closer to one point four seven percent it is now that yields spiked even over one point six percent last week. So what is driving the rise of these treasury bonds this. Us government debt in short. It's expectations of a stronger economy. Vaccines keep getting rolled out with new ones coming on the market which suggests that all american adults who want to can be vaccinated by basically the beginning of the summer simultaneously. You're seeing restrictions on businesses being rolled back and the market doesn't believe in fact that the fed is going to be able to keep rates as low as they've been or continue the sort of asset purchase programs to provide liquidity that they've been doing now. These rising treasuries have been causing havoc in the public markets and part of the issue is valuations the s. and p. five hundred is currently trading at twenty two ex expected earnings which is close to the highest. It's been in twenty years. In december two thousand nine six months after previous it was trading at fourteen acts with this means that even small changes in the treasury yields which is another way of saying small changes in how appealing bonds are as compared to stocks can cause major spasms particularly for tech companies which are trading at the highest earnings multiples. There is also. I should note some real wildness happening. In the repo markets ribaud stands for repurchase agreement and repos are collateralized short term loans which help financial institutions. Keep money flowing are used by the fed to conduct monetary policy basically the repo rate is a measure of financial institutions with cash willingness to lend on a short term basis. We saw it in insane. Spike in september twenty nineteen when the overnight repo rate rose's highest ten percent and there were still acquitted. He crunches it. Seems like there's something big going on right now in the repo market that we might need to discuss but for the sake of this conversation i wanna keep more broad basically sum up treasuries or freaking equities out and even bringing bitcoin into the conversation. Aucoin desk headline article today reads. Bitcoin hovers below fifty k. As traders await feds take on bond yields quote according to analysts. Comments powell is monitoring events in the treasury market. Might be enough to calm things down encouraging return to a softer dollar that could bode well for bitcoin. Stocks both assets have mostly moved in the opposite direction to the dollar index over the past twelve months however the rally in yields may accelerate leading to a stronger dollar and weaker bitcoin. If powell downplays concerns over rising bond yields taking cues from his european central bank counterparts quote. No such concern from powell would suggest the fed is happy for treasury yields to find the right level as our bond strategy colleagues say potentially triggering another spike in yields and more dollar short-covering ing analysts noted. So what do people think powell is going to say in. Today's comments many things. That powell will try to convince markets that the bank will be ultra patient in any pullback of support for the economy some like bloomberg. Don't think he'll explicitly say they're going to cap long term interest rates instead most think that he will reaffirm the feds determination to meet their updated. Inflation and employment goals employment specifically has been the key here basically. The fed has been more or less saying that they are willing to do whatever it takes until full employment is achieved so even if it seems like markets are steaming. That's fine as long as they can get to full employment. They already previewed this position this week. With comments from fed governor lael brainard who said that. The fed has quote quite a lot of ground to cover to meet its objectives. The question becomes what tools the fed actually has. The first is words. What bloomberg calls forward guidance light fed is currently buying one hundred and twenty billion dollars of assets per month eighty billion and treasuries and forty billion in mortgage backed debt. They could potentially be explicit about when they intend to scale that back rather than leaving it to market guesses they could also be even more definitive and precise about what it would take for them to raise rates. What if words don't work however what would come next while there could be some more. Extreme courses of action. Bloomberg discusses to the first is a resumption of operation twist in which the fed would eliminate their holdings of t. bills which are shorter maturation of usually a year or less and put money into longer dated securities. The benefit would be that it would alleviate downward pressure on t. bill rates which are currently threatening to go negative.
Monocle 24: The Globalist
Who Could Serve IN The Biden Administration
"Now. The current incumbent of the white house is showing no signs of planning to pack his suitcases. But that hasn't stopped president-elect joe biden from pushing ahead with his plans for the fresh administration a large part of this is the people who will make this administration so comparative unknown who will become household. Names come january for more. I'm joined by louis. Lukens a former. Us diplomat and a senior partner at sigme global advisors. Welcome back lewis. You want it now. i'm i mentioned here. That comparative unknown but the list of the runners and writers to make up the Biden cabinet this pretty well known names in there. He's going to bring on a really experienced team of people. All of whom most of them will have had experienced during the obama or administration's These will be maybe not household names To the american people but most of them will be known certainly within the national security establishment for the top jobs at defense and the state department and national security adviser and those kinds of jobs. So where do we start with. Who's going to pay. When i mean he's likely to name a chief of staff this week. Isn't he chief of staff this week. Probably ron claim who was as chief of staff before and and is a well respected in washington that liked cross the. I'll have to say for the cabinet positions Biden will be a little bit constrained by the senate because the senate of course has to approve The the secretary of state and defense and all those main all the cabinet positions so and we think the republicans are probably going to maintain control of the senate. So what that means is for example. There was some talk that elizabeth warren wanted to be secretary of the treasury. That will not happen now. The the republicans in the senate will not confirm a left-wing progressive democrat for a top job. So it'll force by his cabinet choices to be more centrist Which is not a bad thing actually But it means at that. The progressive wing of the party won't get the sort of personnel appointments obeyed hope to see in washington now filling. His cabinet job says he will give priority to technocratic experience. Loyalty and diversity. What does that mean in terms of who. We are likely to see for some of the top jobs well so he has pledged to have the most diverse cabinet ever. I think so. I think the front runner for secretary of state is susan rice. Her confirmation might be a little bit difficult because the republicans do not like her. But i think they will still try to get her through. I think we'll see a woman a treasury for the first time ever lael brainard. I think we'll see a female secretary of defense for the first time ever with blank florida. Yes michelle foreign. I of course so. I think we'll see a lot of women. And i think we'll see some. And then when you get down into the secretary of urban housing and urban development and human services and health and human services and things like that. I think we'll see people of color We'll see women will see Just in general a much more diverse cabinet than what we have now which is basically a lot of older white men. Let's look at the way that this actually could play out. You mentioned the idea of susan. Rice becoming the next secretary of state we need enormous job in rebuilding us foreign policy after four rather damaging years. One could argue. I mean she's former. Us ambassador to the un national security advisor to president obama. She's she's walk the walk. She's got the experience. She's close to joe biden. She'll be good at rebuilding alliances but there is that fair. Isn't there that if you start trying to bring back people from the obama administration. How much is concerned that. I think that joe biden is simply trying to wind the clock back by four years when america is a very different place now will america is a different place in the world is a different place so there is a bit of that risk. But i think that hurts that biden's team and and his cabinet members will make very clear that they recognize that reality and they certainly are going to bring Some of the values in core beliefs that that they that they had when they worked during the obama administration. Including you know for someone like susan. Rice a belief in working closely with partners and allies in in a belief in multilateral. Ism but you know overlaid with the recognition that the world is certainly a different place in that china is stronger than it was four years ago. And we're dealing with you know. Global threats like terrorism and climate change and In the pandemic so certainly a different range of issues in a different approach to how to work on them But as. I said you know the same values that these people had when they work for obama For years ago one of the big words associated with joe button is unifying and there is a suggestion that he's going to have what's known as a unity cabinet bringing in prominent republicans. How's that going to work. Well it's unclear. I think it's a great idea. In principle to bring in a couple of republicans but some of the republicans whose names have been floated including john casick and mitt. Romney are very very unpopular with the left of the democratic party so he has to be careful in doing so not to upset his own party too much. I think a meg whitman's name has been thrown around as a possible candidate for secretary of commerce. She is someone Lifelong republican but she did endorse a biden and actually endorsed hillary clinton for years ago She is someone who i think would be acceptable to the left of the party. Someone like john. Casick are mitt romney's little bit harder to convince the the progressive that they add value without detracting from the cabinet.
CNBC's Fast Money
The Fed has capped bank dividends and suspended buybacks after stress tests
"For the first time in the ten years of stress, testing banks are required to resubmit their capital plans later this year to reflect the current environment by chair Randall. Quarrels notes in a statement that there is quote material uncertainty about the trajectory for the economic recovery in its impact on banking organizations, and not all governors agreed to let the banks continue payouts even if If, they're limited fed governor Lael brainard said in a separate statement that she does not support giving the green light for large banks to deplete capital which raises the risk they will need to tighten credit or rebuilt capital during the recovery coverage, informing this decision by the Fed was a covert sensitivity overlay for their traditional stress tests where the test of the bank's viability under three hypothetical recessions in subsequent recoveries, v-shaped, u-shaped and w shaped. The Fed notes that there are scenarios are not predictions of the likely path of the economy in aggregate, though the Fed said loan losses for the thirty four banks tested amounted to five hundred and sixty billion to seven hundred billion dollars aggregate capital. Ratios declined from twelve. Twelve percent in the fourth quarter of two thousand nineteen to between nine point five to seven point seven percent in the hypothetical downside, they did not break out the results of the cove analysis on individual banks, but in the after hours investors have been drawing their own conclusions with mixed results depending on the bank mixed performance depending on the Bank Melissa all right Leslie, thank you Leslie picture with the results of the stress has a lot to think about. There are a lot to think about in terms of how it affects the bank trade, but there's also this to think about. Take a listen to what David Ellison of the Hennessy funds said on the closing bell just a few moments ago. There really inserting themselves, and and basically acting like they want to act in a sense that these companies are effectively nationalized. and. We're seeing the effect of that today. in what they're saying, so they're worried about the the appear to be more worried about the economy than the market is. Again heard Powell last week. Say that he was worried now. It seems like we're hearing that again. And this is going to be an ongoing thing. The banks are going to be battling this for the next couple years. So they are effectively nationalized according to this bank investor, guide me. What does this all mean for the bank trade? Yeah. It's interesting. I mean I. Don't know if I'd go that far that the bank should be but I I respected the the opinion on that. Know what it means for the bank trade I don't think the value proposition of the reason you were getting wanted to belong J. P. Morgan was because of the dividend or their stock. Buy Back. I mean I. Don't think that's why you're long the stock, but I understand the headline. This is somewhat shocking, although probably not all that. Surprising quite frankly, I think a lot of people probably saw this coming I think the bigger headline was the reason I thought. The market rally in the first place was a relaxation of the Volcker rule to a certain extent. I think that's why banks had the big run. Now you have to wonder if the timing was somewhat coincidental. I still would submit the following. Pretty steadfast on this you're looking for opportunities to by name like J. P. Morgan for that now second potential run up to one fifteen, and we've done the math for you. I mean one fifteen for J. P. Morgan is putting a one point eight multiple on sixty two dollars tangible book, and it makes a lot of sense. Go back and look where we traded up to a couple of weeks ago and that to me is where the market wants to go I. Don't think it's I. Don't think this is the reason to be bearish the broader market although you know I am. But I do think the headline is probably going to some people carrying. You've been a longtime investor in the bank specifically, certainly not for the dividends, certainly not for the share buybacks. Knew that they were gonNA suspend by back at least for this quarter. So how do you factor this into your investment thesis? So. I mean I guess it makes sense I that they say. Let's see how the year unfolds before we decide whether or not you're going to be allowed to to pay your dividend, or at what level you'll be allowed to pay your dividend, so that sort of makes sense to me i. think what is going to be more important I think is how bad are the provision for loan losses going to be in this quarter? And how bad are they going to be given that we are having difficulty reopening? How sustainable those losses to be going through the throughout the year, so I had thought that the first quarter and the second I'm sorry, the quarter ending in. June, and this next one I'm sorry. March marching, June would be the worst quarters of the year. Maybe there's another bad quarter here. It is interesting to me though that the Volcker rule did come out on the same day that I mean that's sort of like back to go go times. To? The stress tests. But I think the story hasn't really dramatically changed today we'll be. It'll be interesting when we see on Monday. Who is going to change their dividend? Would seem like Wells Fargo is maybe a likely candidate. For BANKAMERICA's city and JP Morgan. The big money centers I don't think they're moving much I. saw city up a little JP Morgan down a little and Bankamerica down. Little I don't think a whole lot has changed to me. It still comes down to how bad will the loss be? Yeah, Goldman after hours one of the biggest loser, if down two and a half percent, a wells Fargo's down one and. And a half percent.