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"ken fisher h" Discussed on CATS Roundtable

CATS Roundtable

07:09 min | Last month

"ken fisher h" Discussed on CATS Roundtable

"It's been open so it's kind of a bittersweet You Know Businessweek Day that we we recognize ten years of Dover but we were able to also in addition to the Fisher House that we built there we were. We were able to build they. Don Denominational Spiritual Center where family could go and pray or meditate in their own way and you know to me not having that at Dover when families were allowed to go and and witness you know their loved one coming home was was just travesty. So you know we're able to do that. And and our commitment you know keeps going on To this day and we'll we'll continue well into the future as long as there's a need while the Fisher fabric does wonderful things and I. I can't I don't know if you know me and your Uncle Zachary Fisher under H W Bush help build a chapel at Camp David Camp. David never had a chapel before and in nineteen eighty nine nineteen ninety was ninety one something like that. We built the chapel at Camp. David and it was a wonderful thing that we did talk about chapels and we talk about religion yesterday on Saturday. President trump announced that you know religious freedom and at all the churches should open and meet if we have super walk. It's open and if we have Liquor Stores Open. Why not opened up the churches as long as they take the right precautions? Where their masks and be able to have people pray and? I commend the president for doing that. Because people should have religious freedom. They should be able to do that. Well you know. Cows one of the learned in Iraq. It was a young soldier who came to me and we were talking about prayer and we were praying together Here I am at Iraq Frank With Rain Marina. He says to me. Hey Tony I doubt if there are too many atheists in the Fox hole today and so prairies important for as important to every single synagogues and mosques and and and churches and and Protestant and Catholics. We all have to pray because prayer is a power that without doubt has proven itself over the world's time from biblical times to now over pandemic prayers very important rifle or gone or weapon against this terrible terrible terrible virus and We all the time time to pray and that was wonderful at candy. Your your brother Bruce mostly was on before and He he does wonderful things at cushman and Wakefield and Cushman and Wakefield pixes hired eight hundred veterans for his company. Yeah Bruce has been a leader. It's a it's a real pleasure for me to to actually be the CO chairman of the intrepid with Bruce. He's been a basically a part of the family for many many years. Now and you know we've got this this one thing in common. Which is you know our love of the military our love of military families. The most important thing. I think that we need to remember. Is that behind? Every man and woman that wears a uniform is a family and that makes sacrifices and bears burdens that the average American has no concept of and it's up to us the people that are aware of it the people that that are in the trenches. If you will you know helping our veterans helping our are active servicemen and women and remind people that that these families you know need help sometimes too and you know when a loved one is in the hospital. You know. It's up to Austin to make sure that these families are taking care of these are America's families now and when they give the ultimate sacrifice store on the family loses a loved one in line It's up to us to remember. What the sacrifices that have been made on our behalf and that is what this weekend is about not about barbecues not about the about three day weekends and and no zoom calls this weekend but But most importantly About wreck remembering those who have paid the ultimate price for freedom and the reason we could have those barbecues reason. We can have a dinner with our friends and our families is because the sacrifices people have made on behalf of our country at Jeff. How Long Jeff Cathy? How long have you been Bankamerica about a dozen years? I finished up a twenty nine year career in the navy and up in Washington. Dc actually work for secretary Fran Harvey for a little bit who was so instrumental in building the CFI out in San Antonio and and So it's just It's just been a tremendous Company joined Reich. You know when Recessionary period head and really unemployment for the veterans was quite high which with this pandemic is Gotten up there again up in double digits. So as Kim said you know they're they're a great way to support. The troops is for those coming back. Who Want to enter the workforce and join their communities and they done They're good service and an honorable way for the country and what better way to improve their financial lives and employees them properly and in really appreciate what they've done and experience that they bring and they I mean they can run big that they've got the talent they got their work ethic that got the attitude and that's why we percent. Jeff thank you for everything you do with bank America and with Brian Moynihan and Dick's of a minute convert duty for of veterans and about Bank of America. God bless America and Tony. Orlando up sir. You're out they're bringing people in and you do wonderful things. Both of us are missing. Good friends that we work together Bob Hope and built as he had fisher. What can I say I I used to eat with your dad. at Copy Yola Restaurant Twenty years ago thirty years ago and had been dad. We must say that he knew how to have fun. Oh Yes dad but so do you don't you? Let's add your brother. Steve Fisher worked very closely together. Happy happing helping POW and the intercity kids at the bank. You only thank you. Tony Thank you can and thank you for everything you do and continue to do and God bless America. John About American Bob. Hope you carry this. Carry the torch very well. Thank you sir. Active like appropriate at the end of the show at the end of the show. We all stand up when we play. God bless Barrick..

Jeff Cathy Zachary Fisher David Bruce America Dover Fisher House Camp David Camp Steve Fisher Iraq Frank With Rain Marina Don Denominational Spiritual C Iraq President trump Wakefield Bob Hope president Bank of America Tony Barrick Orlando
"ken fisher h" Discussed on CATS Roundtable

CATS Roundtable

09:12 min | Last month

"ken fisher h" Discussed on CATS Roundtable

"Incident. Tony Orlando for everything. You do for our veterans with us With this is Jeff Cathy. Who is the head of Military Veterans Affairs at Bank of America? Whose spots of this hour. How are you jeff? John How are you all? I am good. I am Greg and we got ten Fisher the Fisher Brothers who does Dover House ten years on Memorial Day Dake and Ken. Are you there John? Well only Tony Ken. And and Jeff you you guys worked so hard for veterans Townie. You you started off helping With Bob Hope you grace hundreds of millions of dollars with Bob. Hope is that right up. I have been honored John to be able to take my career because of that. Little Song that you played was written by Irwin Levine. And Larry Brown made never thought nor did I on a rainy afternoon in New York that that's become a tool to raise money on behalf of veterans. I've been able to go to the rack and work for our troops in Iraq and I've been able to work for twenty four years free shows and Branson Missouri. I just want you to know that. The President Missouri's become a real spotlight for veterans in Nineteen ninety-three. We started a free show at the two thousand seat theater. I owned at that time. And for twenty four years we did a free show started out with two thousand veterans coming in for free ended up being five thousand people every single year on a waiting list to get on to see that show where we would tribute and Bob came Bob. Hope came in nineteen ninety-three to launch for me. He's been he was great as you know spearhead to raise money for veterans with his heart for this country and in my own little way. I have been honored to carry that condition that Bob hope gave me. I've been able to raise hundreds of million dollars more importantly creating awareness in this country and around the world to give respect to those people who go on and put their name on that bottom line and say. I'm ready to die from Erica. And on this Memorial Day. We honor those who did without them. We wouldn't have the freedoms that we have today and to those people who are against on this show. I'm honored to be with you Mr Fisher. I'm honored to be on you back at America's always always always been there for veterans and again here they are again and you John. We've been friends a long time. I WANNA share one thing about you with your audience. We did a fundraiser. And a show while you were running for mayor and I came out saying yellow ribbon and you actually send the course with money. And you're one heck of a singer Buddy Tony. I must say we always had a lot of fun together and hopefully win the ended. His virus comes. We will continue to have fun together. I WanNa Thank Jeff Kathy and Bankamerica Jeff. You are the head of the Military Veterans Affairs for Bankamerica at your sponsor. And as I said to you me your chairman. Brian hand both on the board of the Medal of Honor Foundation. Jeff tell us all the stuff that Beck. America does with veterans. Well of so much John and thanks for the opportunity. I I grew up with Tony. Sing Anti Yellow Ribbon. And I saw Bob. Hope on the USS Cole. Right around Thanksgiving and Christmas time Over by Lebanon and bring back great memories and and You know people outside of the military are very much supportive of of the jobs that That are done inside and as well as line morning. Hand and the leader of our company and he does so much as well as the management team and other senior leaders and Insofar as making public commitments to hire ten thousand bedrooms which we did in two thousand fourteen five year plan to bring some coming back from Iraq and Afghanistan and other places around the globe to get them Integrated and properly brought into the civilian workplace and joining the communities and contribute like they did in the army the Navy the Marine Corps Air Force also big contributions on property donations. And I remember seeing Mr Fisher up in But that's a Maryland And and Building New Fisher. Houses are watching them expand from twenty five to twice that number and we were early on in two thousand seven out there through the Intrepid Fallen Heroes Fund and built that Or supported and funded some of that and the private way with the Center for the intrepid out there in San Antonio Texas. I've gone out I've seen it burn units The Surf Wars and the people lose Amputated parts of the body. That really gets a core back in together Fisher family the leadership inside of our company and support not only these veterans and retain them and give them good career pass but military spouses in out of the two hundred thousand or so veterans who raise their hand leave the services every year and and and the spouses about ten percent of them want to start their own business right so they take an order for many years and now they want to give orders and really really lead the own trajectory and so were there for them in that respect we've got employee networks Military one inside inside the company. Forty one chapters now. Eleven thousand members to really help the young Army and Navy and Air Force Members. Come in and figure out what corporate America's like and help them with the business active man and some exposure other lines of business. We work with a lot of nonprofits in the Post traumatic stress and traumatic brain injury. Space that I know Mr Fisher and all of you are interested in so those nonprofits and the Bush institute really help us Generate larger outcomes for For Bank of America. So it's just a great pleasure to be lucky enough to be in this role with just a great leadership in the company. That is wonderful. A Bank America. Ten thousand veterans being hired debt is so wonderful And I work also very close. The Dixon woman who was a marine Vice Chairman of back America and he does some wonderful work Work the BURRIS. And I think we did eleven neck boy last year and I think we met there and it was so wonderful and Ken Fisher. Tell us all the wonderful things that that the Fisher family does. We started with the intrepid and and moved onto additional text house. Ken Yeah John. Thanks for having me in jeopardy was good to hear from you again We've so appreciated your involvement down at the center of the intrepid. Course Tony Orlando and all you do. it's started With my Uncle Zach Fisher that you knew when he brought the intrepid to York City and converted into the air and Space Museum. Where we have the Memorial Day ceremonies today The ship has been closed. Obviously for the last couple of months. But we're hoping to get it open soon. Out of the intrepid came a number of initiatives one of which was Fisher House which Which I am also chairman of and Fisher House is basically. We Build Comfort. Homes for families the veterans and active servicemen and women To stay in for no charged while loved one is hospitalized whether it be for morons whether it be from sickness or illness we have eighty seven fisher houses around the world including one in Great Britain and over the thirty years of the program. We've helped four hundred thousand families have to this point and saved them almost half a billion dollars in travel and lodging one of the houses that we still stands out particularly this weekend and that was the Fisher House we built his Dover. Which is we know is where where those who have given the ultimate sacrifice and come home and the families who were able to get to Dover would to to do. The unthinkable would come in at three four in the morning and witnessed the repatriation of their loved. One and then they'd have to get the car and drive to a cheap motel which we didn't think was Wasn't thicket of sacrifices that this family made we also found out that there wasn't a place for them to pray. So what we did was we we mobilized I I actually got a call from the surgeon general in the army who made me aware of the situation we broke ground in. May Two thousand ten and we finished the House November tenth. Two thousand ten. It was the quickest house we ever built but the need was obviously so compelling that we had to move and everybody around us involved with over you know was equally Dedicated to the project. So we were able to do it in record time but Thirty seven hundred families have used that house in the ten years..

Zach Fisher Military Veterans Affairs Bankamerica Jeff Bob Hope Tony Ken John Bob America Fisher House Tony Orlando Fisher Brothers Buddy Tony Fisher Intrepid Fallen Heroes Fund Jeff Cathy chairman Building New Fisher Dover House
"ken fisher h" Discussed on We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

14:55 min | 11 months ago

"ken fisher h" Discussed on We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

"Let's say i was american only and tech only now you get down to other questions like well if the time for big cap and small-cap and intuitively in this period big tech has done better than small categorically so trying to fiddle around with little tech is kind of silly but on the other hand and once you get down into really big tech since really big is actually really big because dollar weighted average capital worlds like two hundred and thirty five billion dollars once you get to that point then. You're really talking about irrelevance. You've stocks to pick from now then. There's a time to apply stock picking to those relatively few stocks but you've just taken this haystack and winner to down on simple notions like one time to do big wants a time to do small wednesday time that tax should fit in the time that tex shouldn't fit fit in then. I've got my bias based on what i've learned in my life. It's the how i think that works and i ended up having those biases and after rethink all that stuff all the time the simple fact is the way i would think about the world always is take the whole world. Look what it is and look at how it breaks down into these categories and then say what are the categories is it should be working now and why and then once i've winnowed the world down to the categories. That should be working then. I do my stock picking their. If i'm dead wrong those is categories don't work what would be the parts. That would work really well. Let me buy them knowing that. I hope they actually lag there like my insurance. Policy always wanna to buy some stuff that does badly because if that stuff does badly it means the things that i thought would do well did do well. You've got to always have some counterbalance counterweight. That will protect you if you're wrong but you start with this top down view. What is the world. What should do well now. You don't have to be a genius obvious to know that traditionally bull markets as the bull market gets older and older and older fewer and fewer stocks lead the market higher that otherwise otherwise breath narrows so you say to yourself when you're at that stage were breadth should start narrowing. What should it narrow into you. Wanna be overweight there air but once you're getting into the area that it should narrow into if you think about it the stock picking is picking among fewer and fewer stocks. That doesn't make the stock picking any l._s. valid. Why do you want to go fishing in the whole lake. When you know that eighty percent of the fish or over in one part of the lake they might go to another part of the lake at a different time in the morning. They like this part of the lake and in the afternoon they like that part of the lake but you want to go where the fish are. You don't want to be fishing where the fish aren't on the hopes that you might cat one a big one out in the middle of nowhere. I'm curious about what you learn from this cycle with yulong experienced that you haven't really encountered before if you think think of this cycle which is now ten years old more or less slicing in time in half the twenty first century today that's also perfectly perfectly parallel to what you view as the global deterioration of the news business the news business really peaks and nine hundred ninety but it's going on gangbusters through the nineteen ninety s into two thousand really starts deteriorating after that tied to the internet since then the news news world as become much more what i would call stubborn hold onto false stories and that actually becomes a form of an arbitrage opportunity already these things start they start saying them they say them over and over again not all not always but sometimes blatantly the wrong and they keep going and keep going that keeps pushing people who don't know any better to keep believing that story and has had it goes on you can bet against that. That's something that i don't really think existed much in prior cycles in prior cycles. The news tended to follow reality. It didn't predict reality -ality it wasn't always right but it tended to adapt that term over time and now i don't think it does. I'm not really sure but that feature sure you can see this. I do a lot of things overseas. I spent a lot of time overseas and in almost every country. I'm aware of all the major countries of western europe. This function is very silo by country that is inside the countries spain italy germany little bit less germany mostly in germany france you you come from denmark with burson. Which is the greatest paper in denmark in my opinion by far this function of holding onto older ideas. He is once. You should have figured out just dead wrong. It keeps going and i think it's an rb crushable opportunity interesting so in continuation of that question. I'm curious yours about the biggest change you've seen over the years in the stock market and not just this cycle but just or your investment career. The biggest change has been the technology has allowed pricing bifurcated well. I was very young. You had new york stock exchange fix commission rates. Everything was very expensive today. There's there's things that are very inexpensive as a long term result of mayday but then you also have things that are very expensive so we've got the whole world of two and twenty stuff and then we've got the stuff that discount down to next to nothing and funds that you buy it very low basis points that world is just average fees. I don't believe <music> budget. All you hear a lot cheeser down. Fees aren't down fees just spread out from the middle and pancaked. You've got these very high fees on one end very low. Oh fees on the other end and in the middle there's less players but that all just come technology saying that technology has been the biggest change over the last forty years sounds. Don't try to me but it's true can have plenty of reading your book beat the crowd and we'll definitely make sure to linked to that new show notes fantastic book in that book you talked about. I widely as investors should think differently. That's not the same as thinking obviously the maga or at least it's not necessarily the same as thinking opposite the market. What did you mean by that. What will in its simplest sense stig. They conceptual framework of the market is it had pre prices all widely known information and i think probably all your viewers know that if you take all widely-known information and you agree with the consensus views on that you're agreeing with westbound pre priced and you can't possibly the notion of betting on what's been pre price prices kind of stupid then there's this other ilk that existed long long ago which would call itself contrarian. The fact is in in that vein can train as was often thought of as if everybody believes something will happen. The reverse will that also to me seems to be kind of stupid and by that what i mean is markets pre price but with a wide variance around that think of it more like the face of clock if everybody thinks noon will happen. It doesn't mean that it does mean that twelve thirty and eleven thirty won't happen. That's all been pre priced but three o'clock might happen and nine the clock might happen or the reverse. Six o'clock might happen if you were just a contrarian and you could see that everybody thought noone was going to happen. You'd be wanting to bet on sex ex but in reality three could happen nine could happen what the market pre prices. Let you know a band with of possibility spectrum that you i should assume won't happen in the marketplace because it's been pre priced but outside of that bandwidth anything else can happen. It helps you figure out out correctly part of the possibility spectrum to refute to repudiate and then think of out of all the other possibilities. What's most likely and that's where you go knowing again as i said earlier. You're going to be wrong a lot so you gotta be prepared for what to do if you're wrong. This is the reason why i don't that too heavy because if you bet too heavy and you're wrong you're dot you. Gotta say to yourself all the time. Here's what i think's going to happen so here's where i placed my bet and if i'm dead ed wrong and all that stuff won't work what would do really really well then and let me on a little bit of that. 'cause i gotta protect against being wrong because i'm going to be wrong a lot so keeping that in mind ken i know you have some very interesting thoughts on big tack and who's buying tobatek at the moment. Could you please elaborate for very the basic reasons. This is a very long expansion. It is the kinds of stocks that people by late and expansion or different than what they do early in an expansion mansion what they typically by late in an expansion is exactly what tech is at this moment in time you know if you think through the period after two thousand until two thousand and nine tech lag pretty much the whole way because it got too carried away before it's not as carried away this time as it is then but the fact is this category gory like all others will have its day in the rain and now it's having stay in the sun. This is a cyclical event. That feels like it goes on for a long time because this expansion goes on for for a long time and the expansion goes on for a long time because the average annual returns are low because the average annual growth rate of the world has been low in real g._d._p. There's a whole lot of reasons for that but we've had this longer grinding slow expansion which has led to the longer grinding joyless bull market get but late apple market things like this. The new entrance into the late stages of bull market are people who were too afraid to own anything before the things they buy by the push. The market towards final cop aren't the riskiest things in the world. They were too afraid. Don't anything before they're buying their initial stocks and they wanna buy things that they see as for the future leading names they know things they know will be around in case. They're wrong things that feel like even and if i'm wrong i can't go that wrong. So what do they buy. They buy the kind of growth the global names they know in some different cycles those could be parts of consumer staples. They could be a different cycle healthcare drugs but it's pretty common for them to be big high quality rowing tack doc because he's got that part where somebody can say i can buy it and put it away for ten years and i'll be fine which is exactly what people thought in nineteen ninety eight nine hundred ninety nine as they were buying the then mega cap tech stocks which actually were fundamentally sound companies pretty much a lot of hot air and a lot of a little tech companies then but not in in the big high quality ones yet over the next decade big high quality time on the little stocks and <hes> things that might be thought of as riskier as a category tend to lead is coming out of the bottom of a bear market and they do that coming out of the bond market because the kind of people that are buying men are exactly reversible the late stage buyer these are the people that are hard got steady as you go looking for big wins willing to do it among among companies that if the world was as bad as people once upon a time thought it might be in that recession and bear market if the world was really that terrible the company try gonna business and they get that big bounce if you go back to the history of stuff like were to bond stater innocent sink feld all all.

germany denmark europe apple york spain burson france italy ten years thirty five billion dollars eighty percent forty years
"ken fisher h" Discussed on The Meb Faber Show

The Meb Faber Show

01:57 min | 2 years ago

"ken fisher h" Discussed on The Meb Faber Show

"Of a big loss because it can certainly color i think in a good way you're investing education and in career going forward last question thinking still play red rooster on guitar was last time you picked up a guitar can i haven't played car in a long long time but i'm sure i could play little red rooster with my eyes closed i don't know how well play it that's a different topic and it would be a question of what tuning i was in i used to play mostly in d or e open tunings flight and bottleneck and as you discern from checking out my back pages little red rooster was just about my all time favorite and i basically loved blues rock and particularly you know what i did was lied and you know i've rate memories that but everything's age appropriate and i don't really see myself at my age is running around playing guitar anymore well i i listen to it for the first time yesterday great and we'll we'll get jeff to add a little snippet to them never never you've never heard red rooster before no not not i think i listened to the dixon version is that right wrote the song but you know what you wanna do it's been done so many times so many great people but literally this is an opinion of course i don't think it's ever been done in a way that really moves more people than the stones version i mean keith richards keith richards rhythm guitar on little red rooster is just a die for check it out check out the stones doing a little red rooster whether it's one of their recordings of it or whether it's them doing it live there just i mean he this great great great performance rates on by the way listeners kenan irbe be speaking at the i'm in conference down in so cow in june so come on out and say a hello kim fisher it was so much fun today thanks for taking the time out to to chat with us thanks for having me on medved was fun listeners.

jeff keith richards kim fisher dixon kenan irbe medved
"ken fisher h" Discussed on The Meb Faber Show

The Meb Faber Show

02:02 min | 2 years ago

"ken fisher h" Discussed on The Meb Faber Show

"Jason's wide almost always says great things and he's a great guy and until he did that piece in your book i didn't appreciate his childhood experiences he's he's very unusual guy and i've known him a little bit for a long time and it's rare that whatever base and says isn't pretty right on is is great in another common friend we have which made me think when you're talking about all the comments because i do my very best it's hard to but to not read the comments on twitter and message boards and everyone else but but our friend barry riddled says you should never read the message boards and the comments because that's where intelligence goes to die so but it's interesting you say that about the reactive meter on the housing piece because it gives pretty good inside onto the sentiment that's a pretty widely held universal belief that housing is is this phenomenal investment the only comment i will make is that is the possibility housing if someone if he keeps them if it's automated and it keeps them from doing something dumber with that money and it's automated way for them to save that they otherwise would spend maybe a good idea absolutely and that's just parallel to for example the dalbar studies that show that people that invest in load funds do better than people that invest in the same firms comparable noload funds why because the people at by the load funds seal prison to imprison by the load and so they don't in and out them people by the no load funds treat them like creating vehicles and the holding period is much shorter and they in and out all the wrong time so even though the no load funds do better than the load funds overall the holders that load funds do better than the holders the no load funds because the people that hold a load funds holding for so much longer and they get the delivery of the bad medicine and they follow the bad medicine bad tasting medicine that's good for them whereas the noload folks just don't hold it down that long and wretched back up and i don't differ.

Jason barry twitter
"ken fisher h" Discussed on The Meb Faber Show

The Meb Faber Show

02:01 min | 2 years ago

"ken fisher h" Discussed on The Meb Faber Show

"And particularly now in the post new tax law for most people and so when you look at that people say oh no no no no no no no i couldn't possibly i mean you couldn't rent my house i mean g not my house not my house not my house but and then then they'll say well then why is it that people buy houses to turn around and run them out and the answer is because they don't fully account for the cost when they do that and what they're hoping for is appreciation and they may get that appreciation which may be a little or a lot but it's always a lower return than not always almost always a low return than they think they have once they have it because they didn't account for the full coffin really the first one that i was just trying to urge people to do full accounting i mean why full yourself yeah it's it's it's easy to forget about the we just had a renter but we just had to move out of our house for four months for a backtoback termite than in black mold sessions so i think that causing landlord probably ten fifteen thousand dollars i imagined but a lot of people don't don't think about those things and costs people responded to my first call and saying that you own your own home which was actually within the second sentence of the column saying fool am i own my own home as an investment silly idea but why do i own my own home as i said in the piece because i can afford to i don't think of it as i'm doing it for an investment purpose doing it for a convenience purpose just like i own my desk i don't think on my desk goes and investment i think jason's wag had a good comment maybe as article about something like you know a home as an asset not not not an investment in he's kinda referring it to not necessarily as a financial asset you know a place where you can make a lot of memories and you build a family and have a home base and all the wonderful warm cozy feelings but not necessarily optimizing pure investment return as the main reason to to buy one which i think is pretty pretty solid advice.

jason ten fifteen thousand dollars four months
"ken fisher h" Discussed on The Meb Faber Show

The Meb Faber Show

02:02 min | 2 years ago

"ken fisher h" Discussed on The Meb Faber Show

"Need cation on that or maybe i've got that wrong because i'm idiot but the fact of the matter is that very few people almost no one fully accounts the full toss of housing they all tend to think sort of like i bought the house for this on a mortgage i paid this now i'm selling it for that and the it's way up above where i bought it so it must have been a good investment and the first one that i wrote wanted to make the point that you really need to account for the full costs all of the features including home insurance and taxes and end end in all that stuff to track from your return and when you put those all in it's actually much lower than you want and then i didn't articulate well i used the county that i came from originally that i was raised in which is one of the hottest markets in america over the ten year time period and i said you know here's the return and then people thought i cherry picked that because it was a low return in fact i cherry picked up with a high return but italy explain that very well if you actually look at lots of places in america returns over long periods have actually been that good once you fix in the costs and there's all kinds of websites you can go to to approximate what those total costs are and then there's a point that nobody wants to accept which is that there's actually hard data on all fifty states on ownership versus comparable home rental rate and in fact it is always very state to state of course but it's always much cheaper to rent a home than to buy that same home and then people say i yeah but when i buy the home i'm not paying rent well the average homeowner in america owns there for ten years and in the first ten years approximately fifteen percent of your payments ever go to principal eighty five percent or almost exactly the equivalent to.

america italy principal ten years eighty five percent fifteen percent ten year
"ken fisher h" Discussed on The Meb Faber Show

The Meb Faber Show

02:21 min | 2 years ago

"ken fisher h" Discussed on The Meb Faber Show

"Absolutely we can have a problem with that but the mild uptick in long rates that we've seen so far is a little bit like somebody spitting into a like it's really interesting because almost university this is an investment economic whatever you call this financial position that i think is almost universally on the opposite side where most people think of debt almost everyone thinks about it in terms of their own personal sort of construct we're we're dead is bad and if you have too much debt you're going to go bankrupt and yada yada but but it's kind of a different scenario for the government and the way that can presents it listeners i think is is really useful where you think about returns and you know if a lot of the assets people are the us producing and capitalism's earning outstrip a lot of the costs it's it's a it's a positive carey in quite a bit of a positive carry as well think about that return on our equity or the return on our total assets including debt based on normal accounting of which of course normally counting is not terribly accurate there double digit returns where the interest rate is the numbers you know to get double digit returns at two three percent rates across the euchre spectrum is that i mean that's a great tradeoff it it's the same conundrum people have in my usa today column this week i talked briefly about the stupidity of the senate democratic senate bill was introduced sp twenty six five where you know they would like to eliminate the ability of public companies to be able to buy back their own stock in the marketplace and the fact of the matter is they do that on the basis they think that the money should be hoarded and used instead for wages and infrastructure development and capital investment that but the fact of the matter is they kind of missed the point that if you take a triple be raided bond and you think of that as pretax cost and you take the inversion of the p e and you think about as an after tax cost and you borrow longterm money and buy back.

bond euchre senate two three percent
"ken fisher h" Discussed on The Meb Faber Show

The Meb Faber Show

01:44 min | 2 years ago

"ken fisher h" Discussed on The Meb Faber Show

"All of the data public and private sector dead america's very far from over indebted in most people don't think of debt financed term as written endlessly most people think of debt as bad more deaths worse too much debt you go to hell in too much debt and you do go to hill but you've got to actually think of that in agreement as a financial set of instruments used against the on debt assets that we have as a total package that helps deliver a return for our society and you say to yourself what's the return on assets what's the burden to carry burden of the debt and so for example if you look at us government debt which is the one almost everyone always talks about those people aren't sitting there worrying about how much does amazon have when you look at government debt interest payments on government debt as percentage gdp or as a percent of tax revenue currently because interest rates are relatively low very low or running half literally half of what they were in the the second half of the eighties in the first half of the nineties and part of that the debts fire both absolute sense percentage gdp but also it's partly true that they're not as much higher as people think they are and it's also true that the interest rates your lower and to the question that was asked yeah interest rates are higher but they're not nearly higher enough to cause a problem you gotta get interest rates up across the yield curve spectrum more than one full percent from where they are before you're gonna ever begin to even contemplate a potential problem in that when you think about how much of the extent that schedule is fixed at a point in time it's gonna take years to do can it happen can we have any problem with that.

america amazon
"ken fisher h" Discussed on The Meb Faber Show

The Meb Faber Show

01:59 min | 2 years ago

"ken fisher h" Discussed on The Meb Faber Show

"What about now or interest rates going up to be a problem in one of my favorite things that you published many years ago and updated more recently was concept of a balance sheet of the united states so if you'll see to answer that question anyway you want is is our data problem is there any risk to what what's going on the fed and you can feel free to illustrate with the balance sheet as well sure so i you know as william kennedy martin famously kinda talked about he was the head of the longrunning headed it said over and fifties into fifty and kinda famously said that when you come head of the fed to take a little pill and it makes you forget everything ever knew it lasts as long as you head of the fed which later became referred to as martin's little pill as a play on what used to be famous carter's little liver pills it didn't do anything and the fact is milton friedman would've told you when i was a boy that central banks have just batch it crazy and they're gonna be bat shit crazy and if you expect them to be anything but bad shit crazy it's wrong and we always have and we've had from ever fear of losing the great head of the central bank that we have until we get the next one and then the next one and the next one and they all do stupid stuff and central banks in the developed world outside of america central bankers do stupid stuff and the notion that they can find to the economy through interest rate wiggles milton friedman debunked again you know before i was old enough to redeem and the fact is i was true then true now things are a little different now than they were then but said simply there's the fed on the one hand and then there's the other issue which is i mean do with the fed per se which is death and you know debt comes from school policy and then there's private sector debt and then you can build a balance sheet out of.

united states fed william kennedy martin carter milton friedman america milton one hand
"ken fisher h" Discussed on The Meb Faber Show

The Meb Faber Show

01:51 min | 2 years ago

"ken fisher h" Discussed on The Meb Faber Show

"What's the first thing i might buy well i might buy stock in the company i worked for i might buy stock in the company my spouse works for or my brother works for my next door neighbor works for or that big global high quality company that lives to town this base two towns away in that i can feel comfortable i'm not gonna lose my shirt on and increasingly that bull market moves into ladder faces it's those characteristics that tend to work that the time for example for cap is bouncing off the bottom of a bear market as a bull market begins in the first third it's it's the exact reverse and even there that's openly the time for small cap value where you get low quality smallcap which is the version of things that people in the bear were so afraid with absolutely die if things ended up being as bad as people previously feared that when they're not quite that bad you get this huge relief bounce from small value does best in the first early phases of a bull market which is the kind of data mine and the in the small cap effect and take five the first third of the five bull markets out of the data series you find big gap doing markedly better than small up in the rest of history it's it's that part that nobody ever talks about it that which is unsettled going back to the batch it principle and at the same time i mean fundamentally it's it's so easy to buy the big easy late in a bull market that a lot of people don't want to do it so then they under perform a lot of people sit there and say boy you know i to be doing something tricky bastard of a bull market find a needle in a haystack is an expensive game.

"ken fisher h" Discussed on The Meb Faber Show

The Meb Faber Show

02:01 min | 2 years ago

"ken fisher h" Discussed on The Meb Faber Show

"When you look at presidents and you look at market history i believe it's abundantly clear that the american system gives the president much less power than people think the president has in ways that would impact markets and that well presidents do have impact we tend to make way too much of them this president particular for good and for bad people tend to make way way too much over because he's by any definition not archetypal traditional president but the reality is us constitution that have been limited power the president's limited power congresswoman power the courts and to turn it all into sort of a slow moving thing that makes it hard to get a lot done in a big hurry and once you're in a bull market and you recognize you're in a bull market unless you can actually identify the bull market ending the normal thing would be dec returns that are markedly above the average that would be more normal than not normal returns aren't the line i use in the line i use into bunker in the line i used in my only three questions book is normal returns are extreme average returns are are made up of the average of extreme return you gotta like extreme i think that's a great we we've actually used that quote attributed to normal market returns or stream in for listeners just to give it a little context and i'm rounding here to make it simpler because i i like rules with them but basically if you think stock market twenty plus percent years having about a third of the time it's a little more but zero to twenty about a third of the time in negative almost a third of the time again it's a little bit less but a year of that kind of zero to ten percent which is really what everyone expects most years is pretty rare it only happens fourteen percent of the time so i think it's a great example if you bracket that ten number that people look for with five to fifteen.

president fourteen percent ten percent
"ken fisher h" Discussed on The Meb Faber Show

The Meb Faber Show

02:02 min | 2 years ago

"ken fisher h" Discussed on The Meb Faber Show

"Cash is that investors just don't think in real versus nominal terms because almost everyone thinks in terms of nominal returns but real is really the inflation is the risk for bonds and cash as well or they just are so emotionally wedded to the volatility of stocks in the short term i don't i don't really know which one is the main driver there but maybe maybe both a little bit i think the third i mean those two are perfectly valid in your hundred percent correct about the two but i think there's a third and that's the point where you've got the intersection with the road to hell and that's that forgetting about all of the micro details that we all focus on what stopped do i own what sector do i own should i be value or growth in perpetuity or this moment in time all that other kind of stuff forgetting about all that for the moment in the long term we are in a unique period of humanity that's existed for the last couple of hundred years where there is an explosion of science technology transferring into know how to ployed off in through capitalism for the benefit of humans not perfectly but consistently better than people ever forecast and all that translates over time into the capital markets and it's that upside from the part where human accumulation of science technology knowhow deployment in creative ways whether it's technology product something that somebody uses technology to produce a non technology product or just somebody with a crazy ass idea that people end up liking we are doing things that to my grandfather was born san francisco and eighteen seventy five if he had tried to describe to his grandfather the things that he would see in his lifetime but the time he died in nineteen fifty eight.

san francisco hundred percent hundred years
"ken fisher h" Discussed on The Meb Faber Show

The Meb Faber Show

02:05 min | 2 years ago

"ken fisher h" Discussed on The Meb Faber Show

"To kind of you know at the beginning of modern portfolio theory then absolutely stocks are riskier than bonds bonds or riskier than cash etc by any standard if you think instead of opportunity cost risk which presumably lots of people that took economics once upon a time learned then once you start looking at longer rolling time periods and the consistency indoor dispersion of returns it becomes clear that those two kinda reverse and that stocks are far less risky than bonds that in fact my next usa today call them will be making the point that in the longterm soccer lous risky cash and in the short term of course the reverse is true and everybody everybody gets the short term in their bones because the inherent nature of humanity for volusia reasons is largely myopic but the fact of the matter is in the world in which we live most people are gonna live longer than they think most people are gonna live really long time when you look at long rolling time periods stocks overwhelmingly do better than bonds consistently the burien is mostly by a lot i done the data lots of ways lots of times lots periods but if you go off in if you take your sixty five year old retiree today who's married to a sixty year old woman there's a pretty darn good chance she's gonna live into her nineties and that she's got a thirty plus year time horizon when you look at thirty year time horizons this notion that i'm sixty five i'm retiring so i should become very conservative with my investments and on mostly bonds and cash is objecting yourself to huge risk because you either believe in the power of the holy blessed ism or you go to hell and years and years and years ago i wrote a forbes column that i liked a lot that basically said if you're in that.

soccer burien volusia sixty five year thirty year sixty year
"ken fisher h" Discussed on The Meb Faber Show

The Meb Faber Show

02:02 min | 2 years ago

"ken fisher h" Discussed on The Meb Faber Show

"A way to be self promotional away i'm writing about it because i found this thing nobody else it ever written about it i mean there's dairy very very minor allusions to some connection there that you can find some footnotes and various places in financial literature but no description no writing no methodology no data at cetera so it just seemed like a logical thing to do in a vein of trying to figure out i mean another day i kinda thought that if i could ever get if i could ever get to where i had one hundred million dollars management i'd have it made and i thought the book might help me with that in some respects in many respects i underestimated that affect but that's neither here nor there basically i was wondering my way out of the wilderness so to speak here's one of the things that i wanted to touch on because i think it's fascinating i think it'd be really hard for a lot of people is that using a factor like prices sales you know and you became well known for a factor that's worked great over the years but it kind of in recent years or i'm not sure really kinda win the shift started to happen you know and this is a rarity i think in finance investing so many people become totally beholden to one strategy you know somebody's i'm a dividend guy i'm a gold bug or just totally unflexible particularly someone who's invented popularized a single protein you've kinda come around where say you know what it's not something that we necessarily used as much it's maybe law some as effective maybe take us through that because i think that's a really hard concept for a lot of investors is being somewhat agnostic or honest about an approach that certainly they were tied to working with and maybe eventually don't use as much more so i don't know that i'm anymore honest than the next fellow but i'm as pragmatic as i know how to be and fact is you either plan to go to hell you don't and i always thought veering away.

one hundred million dollars
"ken fisher h" Discussed on FT Money Show

FT Money Show

01:36 min | 2 years ago

"ken fisher h" Discussed on FT Money Show

"So when fide that which was okay well thanks very much there to govern jackson the ftc economics correspondent you can read or leave featured this weekend all you ready for rate rise in among section of the ft weekend newspaper or online from friday after dot com slash money wasting an asked me anything event on the evening of wednesday octavia 25th with all us investment called miss ken fischer fischer investments if you want to come gates f t dot com slash ken fisher events ticket cicilline few available which cost thirty five pounds including a glass of wine all too if you quit and v full terms and conditions ansett brexit preview investment portfolio is an enduring question and it's one that mike a curry investment directorate fidelity has tackled in her ft money call them this week gene joins me now in the studio to discuss woke micha thanks k c you made the point that there are two things which already weighing on investors moines's right now brexit the bad let's touch on the latter if investors worried about obamacare leeming around the corner what do yes will this fate to be worried about the end of the bull market we've had a bull market for eight years running now and invest is on increasingly nervous about an impending correction the short on says this very little that you candy because the fact of the matter is the initial stages or the final stages of the bull market are often the most profitable foreignbased based so you don't want to take all your money of the table tease seed you could miss some money into cash but as i say the new risk leasing aren't i think the most sensible option is t.

jackson moines obamacare ftc ken fischer ken fisher mike thirty five pounds eight years
"ken fisher h" Discussed on FT Money Show

FT Money Show

01:36 min | 2 years ago

"ken fisher h" Discussed on FT Money Show

"So when fide that which was okay well thanks very much there to govern jackson the ftc economics correspondent you can read or leave featured this weekend all you ready for rate rise in among section of the ft weekend newspaper or online from friday after dot com slash money wasting an asked me anything event on the evening of wednesday octavia 25th with all us investment called miss ken fischer fischer investments if you want to come gates f t dot com slash ken fisher events ticket cicilline few available which cost thirty five pounds including a glass of wine all too if you quit and v full terms and conditions ansett brexit preview investment portfolio is an enduring question and it's one that mike a curry investment directorate fidelity has tackled in her ft money call them this week gene joins me now in the studio to discuss woke micha thanks k c you made the point that there are two things which already weighing on investors moines's right now brexit the bad let's touch on the latter if investors worried about obamacare leeming around the corner what do yes will this fate to be worried about the end of the bull market we've had a bull market for eight years running now and invest is on increasingly nervous about an impending correction the short on says this very little that you candy because the fact of the matter is the initial stages or the final stages of the bull market are often the most profitable foreignbased based so you don't want to take all your money of the table tease seed you could miss some money into cash but as i say the new risk leasing aren't i think the most sensible option is t.

jackson moines obamacare ftc ken fischer ken fisher mike thirty five pounds eight years