3 Episode results for "Kate Bond"

RBA April 2020 - Lockdown, AUS Recession And What This Will Mean For The World Economy

The Property Couch

36:33 min | 1 year ago

RBA April 2020 - Lockdown, AUS Recession And What This Will Mean For The World Economy

"Governor Low and the Reserve Board met today and they kept the cash ride on home but we all know that because the cash right is going to remind at point two five and took such time as we reach an employment levels of four point five percents and also inflation within that two three bandwidth now governor and the board basically saying that could take up to three years so in terms of these updates. We're going to take a little bit more of a deeper dive into some of the financials because we have saying an unprecedented world so we want to have a look at some of the data even though that daughter is lag Dada but also someone forward indicating data because we probably have tough times ahead in the short time but in the medium to longer term things are looking pretty good. The other big news that the reserve board was trying to To do and achieve was with the bond right Sir remember that I had that initiative to try and get the three belonged right down so ran that point. Two five and side. They've been reasonably successful in buying billions of dollars worth of government bonds. And as I come to wear that sort of seeing it around the point two seven of one to saint marks. They're doing a good job in trying to kate bond. Yoda ran that sorta point two area. So there's no data the reserve board and the governor doing everything they can with monetary policy. I we'll talk a little bit more about the fiscal stimulus. That's been presented but I also just wanted to have a look at the mall global story here and what's happened around the world stock markets. So this will go down in history as certainly the most fascinating four to six weeks history in terms of what's happened around this Kobe. Nineteen the Koran of ours. Because we did say during this time. That was an enormous amount of panic and upheaval. Um that we did so you could now. What was saying that? He's the responses from governments and also the Federal Reserves and and all of the central bankers. I'm is incredible. Stimulus and liquidity moves to perform as I say whatever it takes to hold up the economy is based I came in this world where effectively people are locked down and they can't produce and I com- certainly Spain at the levels that I want to if they're all caught up at Heim so we did say that is the big moves. We also saw in terms of short term Economic Mystic Knight and he's placing on the world economy and also domestic economy has been about this mobility of people movement and knows productivity declines and obviously as consequence of that was saying these these short-term job losses. Not just here in Australia. But we're starting to see the news happening in America and obviously what was saying without European friends who are also gone through some very very difficult times so these events obviously lead to global shamrock panicking. Where they've really struggled to be able to assess the value of this risk in these downtown and and that is basically saying the whole global economy effectively being impacted by these by these medical crosses that we're experiencing right now. We take a look at some of the different marketplaces are the ones that we watch obviously are at two largest economies in terms of the US. We've definitely seen through the media. Reports of those horrible situations in the hospital. Was there in New York where you know. Bicycling the demand cannot be met by the by the babies. I haven't and obviously the challenges around people's lives and what they think the united potential death right of these bars to be which is incredibly sad news. Indeed where they forecasting at the current staining of between one hundred thousand to a name. Worst-case modeling at the moment is sitting at two hundred and forty thousand. We take a look at some of the data. That's obviously Dan saw the known fan. Payrolls plummets over one hundred seven hundred thousand in match which is the largest decline since two thousand and non unemployment jumped point nine percent to a rating of all point full which is hovering around the fifty year. This was after sorry I should say hovering around fifty years low so unemployment in America at the moment was basically seeing around three point five full of this cross so we know that there's going to be far more job losses but the job losses that showing up in those particular numbness at that time. Were really in leisure and hospitality of the back of the social distancing rolls that they introduced ivy we do anticipate further and significant deterioration in the short term. We see ten million rickel ten million spark in initial job climbs over the past couple of weeks suggesting that that's going to show up in the data in the Nazis in future. The other thing that was of interest using around the same. The non manufacturing index surprising resilient resulting macho every day pulling from fifty seven point three in February two fifty two point five much that was still signing the manufacturing index expansion stage. And now. We're all be saying that would have contracted significantly since that initial rating in March and went out saying sort of businesses retool to accommodate and potentially support the requirements around medical. The Nice things happening Ivy but certainly a significant downturn experienced in the US as across the globe. China's the story that we just wanted to focusing on in terms of the the the service. Pm Index Rose. Forty three to forty three now. That was off the back of the February rating which was twenty six and five remembering there about four to six weeks ahead of most other nations when it comes to the rise and potentially the controllable containment of the nine virus every day. So what we basically saying is. They're moving back to a more normal right now. That's still not an expansion. Remember guided and fifty is an expansion. So I only getting to forty. Three is now the question. Is this the normal where we asked him saying contraction or are we just basically widening full the DOT com out where we go above fifty percent? Bicycling nines the China's backing growth stage now Early to predict that. But that's obviously what we want to be monitoring in terms of the productivity. That's happening out of China as their economy opens up and people start to get that mobility back in return to work in terms of Europe. We saw an interesting result in February. So we are going back a long way but we did say retail sales. Jump by point on which was higher than expected of only a point. One of one percent increase the theory behind these possible in crisis judy stockpiling of essential goods so Germany and France. By I've had you know increases in retail sales in excess of one percent in February which is a very very big number on the Dan saw. We'd say the sick. I'm a more dire rating. So the amount martigues index in our rating of Twenty six point full format which is down from fifty two point four so effectively. Obviously these lockdown requirements. These economies are going into hibernation. Is What how promise. We'll call it where they're in a free state until I get in control and contain the the virus that's going around it now coming back home in terms of what we say in Australia. Certainly with We're going to experience whereas the say negative two quarters. Those two quarters that will be a luck certainly be much in June. What isn't social at the moment considering that we're getting a little bit more? In control of the containment touch wood Early signs of US doing the right thing and how we can all help each other by staying at home and not interacting socially with anyone is the September quarter might still be negative but like most economists on also believing that the December quarter if we are able to regain mobility and we see the locks of restaurants and bars and coffee coffee shops and bicycling being or attend to mow normal level of walk that we should say returning back to growth the December quarter which technically means. We'll have a pretty shortly recession. Which is my prediction. At the moment. In terms of when we do say these economic upheavals the first market the shows up. He's obviously the stock market. So we did say to the I two hundred cold at twenty one point four percent fall in March quarter that can pace to at twenty three point two percent fall in the Dow Jones. So we'll the gains that we got in January and February our not by the foles we saw in March and I roll. We were down side in terms of from the peak of the market. Down to the bottom of the Michael. We've experienced If we look at the I roll I six index. We are actually talking about forty nine percent which is incredible and it just goes to show that. The market's still remind very volatile and it's not apply for the fine him the moment as we moved into a bear market during the match and we've given up all of those guidelines so markets share market particularly. We'll continue to have these big fluctuations on a daily basis. We marry up good news with with more bad news regarding the KHURANA virus and how applies outs abiding the markets and also in the media outlets in terms of information? We always look at the Australian dollar during these times. There's a bit of a cushioning and that's what it's doing right now so there has been a flock towards us. Dole's so we have seen over the same period of the March quarter million dollars declined by twelve percent in his hovering around that fifty nine to sixty one cent range against the greenback and that is the currency of choice. When we say they stopped so having Soco's so there's been a flaw towards the greenback so the Australian dollar is potentially going to do a favorite of the cushioning in the coming months row. Konami as we stop to bought a mouse and then we start the show. Sohn's LAV again in terms of how that shows up for us it's obviously means domestically we might travel and have a real spark in domestic tourism. If we are able to travel again which is be great. And I suspect it'll be became hinds about getting us out into the tourism markets of Astrology. A- and spending money locally because money wants Trish that five when we talk about things nationally. It's also a bonanza for our exports and also for our companies in US Dulles and bring those profits back into Australian dollars as well so That's a good story in terms of how Australian dollar will apply as a positive note for us the other one. I'm going to spend time talking about the unemployment right. This is the one that's really going to shy. What type of recovery that we say? But I also WANNA make sure that we're not just getting too caught up in the headlines so it's really important to disdain. You know what has been done by governments in this particular spice. And how that's going to affect the data over the course of the next couple of months so we definitely need to be looking at the indicator as one of our primary indicators and the government has made a move from a fiscal point of view to introduce the job package which is a winner in terms of keeping the unemployment right Loa effectively to to gain access to that the job Cape Pine will be tied by employees to their employees by employers. I should say to their employees as a means to to keeping that money coming through. So they're gonNA pick up percentage of the salary and that's effectively going to kate people on the books and not in the Dole queues in terms of lining up for the job. Seek a package that was also announce so along with a lot of other economists in terms of what they forecasting. I tend to agree that we will say the unemployment right sort of around that nine percent range. That's on the back of the job. Kepa program that we saw now prior to that most economists were forecasting that the that job. Sorry unemployment would go potentially between twelve and fifteen percent. If we didn't have that time Nansen everyone had to apply for unemployment benefits to actually get any cash like coming into the hassle so in terms of what I'm looking at it from a short term point of view from my point of view. It all really depends on where we you know win. Wait when we get let out himes and guy back to some level of normality wrought. So if we're if we're able to save some shops bars and restaurants being able to come sort of June July old lighter that will definitely have immediate positive impacting tomes of people returning to work and and businesses potentially rehiring during those periods. A done suspect going to say everyone walking adding to the vase and knock clubs and and partying Hud and so we basically say a little more satisfactory containment and also some updates in regards to how some of the successful treatments that have been trial at the moment around the world or working in mitigating the fatality rights. Because we absolutely now based on the experts telling us that we won't be saying vaccine for the next twelve potentially I two months so if that is the case we are obviously going to be reliance on containment as well as some of these treatment programs that will then say ability picking up. Remind Guy. Through sock of of containment lockdown and sokolow's of of Ivan activity just to keep the the curve. Dana's eyesight so it's very safe to assume that we will probably be in some form of lockdown through Vipul and also into my to get that containment under control and that obviously will probably vain start to show up in a guy in a rise in the unemployment level now when we do see that. It's obviously interesting lot because when we did look at the fabric results for unemployment we had a good number the unemployment righted full and from five point. Three down to five point one which was precis. They right so pretty Koran avars. That's we had some intimate it's an. It's obviously fresh. Driving to know that that that my main was building was also building in a lot of industries as well as the property market is well that said the fauna point that I do WanNa Mike which is what all's mentioning earlier which just around the numbers that you're seeing the headlines that you're going to see in terms of the bite around what he's going to train spy in regards to the unemployment right and hauling us around the participation right side. The other part of the fiscal relief that was being offered was doubling the unemployment right. So you have what's called a new start and then you have the job seeker payment. So that's now eleven hundred dollars per fortnight so in February we did say the participation right. And it's been a little for the last sort of three to four months around sixty six percent in February so I'm very very high historical level off suspect that that's GonNa go up even further so by example if a husband or a wife the major breadwinner or whatever has had some time. Some reduced allies. An inside a waffle husband wasn't working in. Were the primary care for the children. I'm not as well put their hand up and I suspect I will so. I do. Suspect that the participation right is going to increase beyond levels that we've ever seen it before because there is a material amount of money thing might available to climb that unemployment benefit and saw when you do say the unemployment and potentially do get into double figures. Just have a look at that participation right because they've gone to I seventy five eighty percent then. The reality is those people. If was normal. Circumstances wouldn't necessarily be working so ivory artificially inflating the unemployment right but the good news is that money's moving into those households and those households continue to kate paying their bills and also starting in properties move now onto consumer confidence in Saint. This is one of those forward looking indicators and yeah as I said the last couple of weeks probably this last week and a half is doing a little bit more calm than but prior to that on the two weeks before that die off the die announced after for the restraint on movement. Further lockdown further penick further financial markets. Going into chaos. Shay Amac dive bombing all those types of things. I'm was happening so this consumer sentiment and confidence survey was released backing the twelfth of March. So it sort of looking at the bottom arch and what we sold it was. The consumer confidence fell three point. Eight percent to ninety one point nine to five. I suspect when we get the Knicks Rating. Which is going to come out. In the fifteenth of April that the WESTPAC IMA- consumer sentiment survey showed a further deterioration as we battled through dismiss. That he's the virus that's affecting us only temporarily but still going to be a significant cates in regards to the economic gap puts the paper that. So let's move on from consumer confidence in cinnamon. Let's have a look at business confidence in Santa men and in the February ned condition survey so are full of three points to a zero rating conditions and infra confidence. We saw another full of three points to a negative full now. A suspect. That's because while we were sitting in February after business confidence was really around the time that we had this supply challenges and so that was affecting business confidence in regards to those supply challenges. We obviously know that that now. That's led to productivity and now demand challenges in in the economy so it's a fully blown sort of economic impact. And so that's what we're basically saying Agai. Those reports were by SPEC in February. So I do expect business confidence and sentiment surveys will be at some of their lowest ratings. Ever when we say the next couple of months of data coming out and that's all. I really important and that's what we're saying now. Interestingly enough obviously those figures that I just reported today were certainly historic lows. But they still wouldn't as long as what they were prayed. J. Of saone beyond the AFC ratings that we sold their side. As I said I think I roll notwithstanding that that This cross this is going to be lodge is already larger than what we saw during the day because affecting bicycling populations on all different levels and so I will say is ratings thought to drop further moving into the retail sales. So February rail. Sol's we do see a guy in an expansion. Two point five. I with a month and there was significant increases in spending at supermarkets. Pharmacies tycoon. Y outlets Fabri now. A part of the obviously the signs of consumer behavior in panic. Balling that we did say on followed as the health crosses start at the site. We do believe that they sectors are expected to say further increases in the months hence consumers. Spain's InFocus still relies mainly on essential spending and the significant dancer engine discretionary spending. That's what's going to be interesting so so what I'm really curious to watching the data as opposed to the top line. What's going to happen in terms of yes? We absolutely know that they'll be retail. Spending will be significantly impacted. The number is going to be pretty ugly for the next couple of months but what we were interested to say is that we know that the type of spending that securing inside supermarkets amendment hours heavy is what they are at Christmas on. So you know how much that retail spending in the discretionary solid is GONNA be offset in spending in supermarkets and in pharmacy and Tyco as we apply this up particular story outside. That'd be something interesting to watch. Let's get into the property story. Because this is obviously the area of expertise that we hauled in terms of looking at the market and to some surprises. Even know as we said we'd say a significant panic in financial markets and and the last couple of weeks of March. We did say property. Prices grow across the nation. In fact there was only one capital city that was high had a negative garage story for the month. So that February paints up demand carried through into March and early indications from where we sit right now a bit of that he's still carrying in through into liberal but we did say point seven Iva Role Sydney one point one percent growth. Melvin point four griped prison points six point three point five thousand two percent very strong point six camera so I combined capitals. Point seven and Combine Ridge Larry's on six The quarterly numbers look pretty strong and a two point. Seven annual brush right nationally. Seven point five and if you add the yield the wrench Liam coming onto the is eleven point six now again. Yes we absolutely know that that. He's stark data. And that was tracy they provide of our what we now want to look at is what's happening in the auction clearance rights because historically speaking auction clearance rights or a very very good indicator of the level of demand in the property marketing. Real time as opposed to the reporter daughter in the Silos Dada which can be one. Two three months all so when you're looking at auction clear track daughter it's really important to get the context of that and and that's pretty easy but when you say public auctions band you go to see what's going to happen. In terms of how results materialize way of example these last two kings whereas last weekend there was three thousand ninety. Two himes sheduled for auction now the weekend before that it was three thousand properties also scheduled for auction in because markets. You don't even look at at lytle. All Brisbane for any reliability in terms of how has process will move because most people down to auctions in particular markets but certainly row to be capitals at two big property markets that is a measure however when you start to say historical changes in terms of the wine which assets assault it can also be quite unreliable in regards to what that looks like a big give. You context around that traditionally leading up to the long weekend and the Easter break. Those two weekends out significantly big games for auctions now traditionally we say around six percent of properties that were going to auction be pulled prior to auction. I'm this past weekend. We saw forty five percent of properties being withdrawn from auction. So that's effectively almost wanting to so we are differently saying I was probably. He's being withdrawn from auction. Now one could argue. Is that because you don't have buys? And that showing up in demand and and that potentially has a process ramification there's validity in potentially some of that story the other part of that story. Is that those people who are looking to sell a usually under occupies remembered I control seventy percent of the marketplace and so if they selling a property and they're not confident that they're going to be out of buying on the property whether it be an upgrade or Dan Breida. They're going to pull their property from sale because there's just no value and high risk in terms of having a property sold but potentially nothing to by now the other important measure here all those remaining properties is. It four percent. I repeat eighty. Four percent of those properties was sold prior to auction. Now if you're getting eighty four percent of ours effectively fifty five percent that were reminding so prior to auction that also tells you that the has thing still some of that demand in the marketplace and transactions have differently thing taking place now in terms of as everyone just decided to drop process and sell for any particular process will. I wouldn't have thought I wouldn't have thought that would be the case. So agai are they look at the data and what I've seen in. The release of the auction clearance writes. Datta and most importantly the cool logic hung price index. They had done index. Look at that on a weekly basis and it's telling me that property prices across the five national logic markets reminds flat so we aren't necessarily saying probably prices deteriorate in the cowart market as it currently seats so that's not decide that we want see some price correction and we're on recode through property. Catch podcast as talking about what happens in particular downtowns and and this downturn is obviously severe downturn. We're not sort of not recognizing that it's not a severe short term impact in regards to the economic impact but what we're also bicycling sending if there's a significant amount of Vin does not willing to sell and a significant amount of buyers who I also been put onto the bench because of the job security. Although there uncertainty in terms of what's happening then we have seen the property market slowed significantly. What I would call. Certainly the most significant slowdown. We've ever seen certainly mine. Twenty five thirty years of watching the property market in this respect. There's nothing lock. There's nothing to compare to it in terms of the papal concrete. After that I want and because the economic shockers Saturn immediate. That's why we're basically saying a marketplace that he's slowly closing down without bicycling closing Dan so own repeat. The market is definitely open. But if you're not if you don't have to sell you wouldn't in this particular marketplace. I'll give you some examples of what potentially helping you from not being able to sell in this particular market and the first one is the government relief measures again fiscal relief measures differently helping so the fact that you know that you've got if you're still a Job. Kepa you've got a minimum of three thousand dollars coming into the Hassall combined household. You might have six thousand dollars coming in if you bought a Spain kept employed. Or if you're in a job seeker environment where you're getting twenty two hundred dollars a month old obviously forty four hundred dollars if you both on job. Seca payments or combination of the two on you coming into the hassle so thia going a long way over the short term to ensure that we don say distressed selling in this particular market. Because it's really really important to understand that and the other thing that when you say marketplace lock these es also understand if you are still inactive by that finding good properties during these times is a little bit more challenging one thing that we've noticed occurring in business we've never bought or seen mall properties being off until us than than ever before in an off market. Why so basically the selling agency contacting us? Because I now that we've got a lot of bars who are looking to buy. And so that come to us with potentially off market opportunities and obviously being considered but the general properties on the marketplace are also going to be hard to define if people pull them off the search engines luck real estate dot com dine dot com as well so it's important to understand that and when you do see a slowdown on this the other thing. We're all cyanide. Seeing is the price of the transaction is slowing down so by that I mean. I'm getting access to inspect the properties in the first instance to validate whether it's a good probably then getting the building in pissing inspection done on the property and then also saying the value of at and valued at probably all of those take time because we have to get the health perspective involved and making sure that it's safe for staff and for the tenants. All the iron is of the property in terms of people coming through their property as well. So that's really important to understand that it's a more civil process in terms of buying those properties. The other point to walk side is that we do not true history That we will see. Some of them will premium properties just by szekely removed from sale. There's not too much happens in the premium market during this time unless it's distress style and we're not necessarily signing that there'll be a lot of hours coming onto the market so with that being said we also nowadays with a low of volumes. The median record which is the middle property in a series of silos. I- repair time this guy to be fluctuating a lot. Because if you take that talk twenty five percent. The colts all probably not basically coming to market. You may see month-to-month some real fluctuations in the median prices of properties across the state. Now remember you combine the Median House. So I wouldn't worry too much about that. Would be would be monitoring. What's happening to property prices for similar types of probably Myra to get a bit of saints in terms of what's happening to probably process it like layered because a guy in the cross Siemian across Melbourne. We do expect that they'll be negative reports coming through and we also I during these times that any prebuilt hassle land packages an additional stalk and highrise apartments and medium apartments and coming to a Finnish. I'm wwl flood. And so what we refer to his junk stalk there'll be a fair bit of junk stock on the market and I suspect you know you can putting some some pretty aggressive offers on nice properties and they accepted if this crisis was to continue and if the cross was to continue we normally don't say a lot of distress stalk we want to see a lot of distress in the first couple of months but if the crosses continues and we say a longer economic deterioration they will start to say some more distressed properties coming tomorrow and a little bit more distress selling. But I'm not predicting that I believe that. That will be the case but again nobody really knows in terms of what's happening but if that if that slowdown is longer than potentially more those distressed properties will come on once of we slay their relief from the government potentially runs out and also the other critical. I released this bank putting price which is the repayment pool is by the banks also gets reviewed as well so and a guy that the government's going to introduce them even though this stimulus in terms of what's happening there so. I think that's an important message. Decided the property market. He's not immune to this. But in terms of the quality have a look at what's being off on what's being bought and sold at this time. It's usually inferior. You GotTa Hustle. Really hard to get what we call. Investment grade there's plenty of investment stuck at the dunk types that Cape Wife Diligence and then in terms of my fond loves evasion. And this will be a bit of Princeton. Repeat for the next couple of months in my view and I've already started saying this publicly but for those who are in a position to acting the property market now. There is definitely less competition. I we have absolutely moved to allies market. So if you're a stable work with solid solid fundamentals in terms of job security of a fundamental financial buffa this is definitely an opportune time for you to have a look at the property market and see what's available to you and try and save you can find a nice little la a property to to acquire during these uncertain times for those of you who have no ability to acting the property market because your circumstances changed and you'll finance in a position to allow you to do anything that's completely fine but there's no excuses for you not to be looking at your household finances and effectively getting them in order in terms of what. I currently looks sorry. Actual you know that you clean them up actual that you really do unto stain. What is money in and money out? What's essential and what's discretionary Mike? Show your rod across that because one thing for me and something that brought an item. They passionate about On our property catch podcast and how we educating Barthet clients and also the broader community is that this crosses Staus Ha lot to me that too many households darn pie enough attention to their finances and have have filed to put a financial buffering plice which in our from our point of view is something that everyone should have. All wise is a little bit of a Buffa in terms of their situation. And what this has highlighted these so many people across this country are living paycheck to paycheck without putting any money away. And that just says to me that we bought a favor to works. They would do around financial literacy and about teaching people how to organize and manage the money and will continue to do so as we continue to offer free services such as the you know the my wealth portal. Which is an money smarts platform. So if you want to get access to that for free you can simply go to. Www Dot W. dot money smarts dot com. That I you. That's a free place for you to organize and set up your finances. Below is being very highly. Secure If you WANNA organize yourself and the nausea finances. That's a great place to stop because if you can organize money and track your service. Then you're not gonNA have any talk of financial transformation and ultimately that's what brought us an IRA all about in terms of making show. You transform financially so they have it. That's the The April all four chatting to next month just remember. Knowledge is empowering but only if you act on heightened folks. Boris hold. Why he before you go if you want new to our community and only listen to maybe a handful of episodes early recommend that you go all the way back to episode number one where we unpacked all the foundations. When it comes to property investing for those would be a little bit. Tom Poor of good good news for you. We have a binge God that you can download straightaway which summarizes the first twenty episodes. Where Ben Annoy unpack the foundational pillars of the ABCD? And so much more and you can get that straight away if you go to the property. Catch DOT COM Dodi Ford Slash. Tpc Twenty you can download and consume it whenever you want. It's completely free and available now and for those of you just a quick reminder that nothing we've spoken about today constitutes financial advice. We recommend that you reach out to your licensed professional advisor so that you can look at your unique circumstances before acting one any information to get go to the probably catch dot com slash. Tpc Twenty get your been God.

US Bicycling Spain Dan Breida Australia Reserve Board kate bond China America himes Governor Low Federal Reserves New York Konami
What the G-7 deal means for digital taxes

Marketplace Morning Report with David Brancaccio

08:40 min | 4 months ago

What the G-7 deal means for digital taxes

"This marketplace podcast is supported by out systems. The application platform that enables every company to innovate through software out. Systems accelerates the development of business critical cloud applications build the difference without systems for more information visit out systems dot com slash action. Hey everyone i'm eddie as hosted the marketplace podcast. This is uncomfortable. It is a show about life and how money messes with it and this season. We're digging into one very specific feeling that nagging suspicion that in some way or another pro kinda getting scammed from a decade-long quest to unravel an identity fees to the get rich quick ler of multi level marketing skis. We get into how our society seems to be built in a way that can often leave many of us feeling cheated. You can check out. The new season of this is uncomfortable to get your podcasts. What is a digital tax. I'm david brancaccio over the weekend. The world's biggest economies agreed on a new global minimum tax rate of fifteen percent to seven and the organization for economic cooperation and development. Ocd want multinational companies paying some tax. Somewhere there's not law yet national. Legislators including the us congress would have to decide another part of the agreement a deal to push for a global digital tax the host of our program. Marketplace tech is molly. Would she has this take. The agreement will create a minimum tax on profits that company's earned by selling digital services like advertising mostly but they don't have a physical presence in a country. It doesn't single out the american tech giant's but it applies to what the cd calls the largest and most profitable multi national companies. So yes facebook. Google amazon even apple on profits from its app store. These companies have been battling digital tax plans. In france. Spain italy the uk and the us has even threatened sanctions in response to countries that tax american tech giant's on their digital prophets on their turf. See in the digital economy. Anyone anywhere can be a customer and if you're buying from amazon in spain you're not buying from spanish retailer amazon profit but pays no taxes at all not even real estate. No money stays in spain. The deal does sort of throw big tech under the bus but it would also supersede any local digital taxes so it gets rid of the potential for a patchwork of tax regimes and creates a base rate for everyone to follow my colleague. Molly would host of marketplace tech new research from the retirement equity lab. At new york's new school found that nearly two million people retired early during the pandemic and in most cases. Not by choice marketplace's justin. How has that. The people were talking about are in their mid to late fifties years ahead of retirement age. They were forced out of the labor market because their employers did not hire the bag or the employers are not hiring workers. Economist gilarducci at the new school says people without college degrees were forced out at higher rates than people with college degrees. Who are working longer and for black workers. It's even worse. They have experienced. The highest increase in share retired before age. Sixty five than any other of our work groups and these groups often don't have the opportunity to save for retirement while they're employed says labor economists. Kate bond the washington center for equitable growth. So for example workers are less likely to have retirement. Savings plans offered at work. And it's really hard to save for retirement with that. The report says we're going to see an increase in retirement inequality since these involuntary retirees face a higher risk of falling into poverty. I'm justin justin how for marketplace the. Snp future is down a tenth of a percent. The dow future up slightly eighteen points this marketplace podcast is supported by personal capital. Who can help you take control of your finances no matter where you are. Download the personal capital app or start today at personal capital dot com to get free professional grade financial tools including a retirement. Planner and fi analyzer. Want to talk. Personal capital has registered advisers by phone or online for qualified users personal capital. There's no place like financial confidence. The one point nine trillion dollar stimulus the biden administration labeled the american rescue plan from march of this year includes an unprecedented twenty billion dollars for tribal governments but travel leaders are bracing themselves for challenges given what happened under pandemic stimulus passed under donald trump. And the last congress a year earlier that was called the cares act the mountain west news bureaus savannah mar reports leaders of the eastern shoshoni tribe in wyoming are used to planning for every dollar that comes their way but not last year. The money came out a quick and it was a flurry that's karen sneider. The tribes pandemic response coordinator. She says the eastern shoshoni received close to fourteen million dollars in badly needed cares. Act he'd but the tribe had just six months to spend it. I just don't think that deadline was ever realistic. Nor was it conducive to us. Doing good planning close to half. The money was paid out directly to tribal citizens and the tribe prepaid for materials in lieber contracts to whether is elders homes ahead of the deadline then just days before that deadline congress extended it by another year to the end of twenty twenty one very counterproductive for them to wait till the final hour. Biden's american rescue plan gives tribes through twenty twenty four to spend their new aid money. Eric hanson researches reservation economics at harvard. He says that timeline allows for spending on what tribal communities really need improvements to healthcare housing and water infrastructure the platform upon which you can lift yourself up going forward but it's not yet completely clear what's allowed and last year. Henson says tribes received little guidance about spending decisions. This time he says treasury should have a team of people in place who are equipped to field an inquiry like that pretty quickly and there was another problem. With last year's cares act. The allocation formula used to divide the money the tribes argued it relied on flawed federal data about each tribes population so many tribes lost out on millions in aid. Some successfully sued the federal government for their fair share. This time around. Karen snyder says she's relieved. The allocation formula will use self reported tribal population numbers. This is the biggest injection of funding into an in country. That's probably gonna ever happen in my lifetime. If the disbursement is done correctly she says the money will be transformative in albuquerque. I'm savannah mar for marketplace and treasury secretary janet yellen is saying that if the biden administration stimulus and infrastructure plans cause interest rates to rise a bit so what. Let me get your her quote to bloomberg news at the g seven meeting this weekend. If we ended up with a slightly higher interest rate environment it would actually be a plus from society's point of view and the fed's point of view unquote. Now stockholders may worry that higher rates may make bonds more attractive but many savers including people on fixed incomes would like interest rates that are not zero and bring higher returns. I'm david brancaccio. You're listening to the marketplace morning. Before from apm american public media molly would of marketplace tech a show that helps you understand the digital economy. How a more of the country get access to better internet. What new jobs will artificial intelligence create or destroy and what tools will help survive are already changing climate. We tell the stories behind the technology in our lives and every weekday. Our podcast brings you insight. You won't hear on the radio checkout marketplace tech. Wherever you get your podcasts.

david brancaccio organization for economic coop amazon spain Economist gilarducci biden administration Kate bond washington center for equitabl justin justin congress Personal capital eddie karen sneider molly app store Molly Eric hanson
The jobs available arent necessarily the ones people want

Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal

27:40 min | 4 months ago

The jobs available arent necessarily the ones people want

"This marketplace podcast is supported by equifax the world's digital infrastructure company looking for the choice and control of hardware with the low overhead and developer experience of the cloud deploy x. metal in minutes across eighteen global locations from silicon valley to sydney. Just add metal. At metal dot equinox dot com this marketplace podcast is by stanford graduate school of business live online executive education programs explore topics like leadership strategy. An innovation learn from stanford's most sought after faculty visit stanford programs dot com to learn more. I said this yesterday it is true again today. The big picture economic story this week once again is jobs. Jobs jobs from american public media. This is marketplace in los angeles. I'm kai ryssdal. It is wednesday today the second day of june. Good as always to have you along everybody. The story about jobs in this economy has been for weeks. Certainly maybe a month or two. It's been the story of companies getting desperate to find people and workers in no hurry at all to go back to jobs that maybe have not working conditions and definitely not great. Pay the conference board said today about eighty percent of companies look into higher mostly industry and manual services workers are having a tough time finding them twenty five states all of them led by republican governors are trying to push people back into the workforce by cutting unemployment benefits and increasingly as marketplace's kimberly adams reports by making people prove they're actively looking for work in many ways. This is just going back to the way things were pre pandemic state suspended requiring people to look for jobs to get benefits when there weren't really any jobs and people were supposed to be staying at home but now that employers are struggling to fill positions. Those rules are kicking back in. This is mostly related. I would say to people who are being called back by their former employer. Andrew statiners a senior fellow at the century foundation. In those situations. You generally job. Why benefits you have to go back to that former employer or else you lose your benefits but a lot of people may not want to go back to their old jobs or even the industry they worked in before. Kate bond is director of labour market policy at the washington center for equitable growth. She says these requirements may make businesses be able to hire workers particularly in the short term. But i don't think it encourages. A sustainable quality job matches even for those businesses. Because she says those workers probably won't stay very long in jobs they were kind of forced to take but the job. Search requirement is politically. Pretty popular has bipartisan. Support and many businesses looking to hire are demanding it katherine edwards economist for the rand corporation. Employers have a understandably single-minded view of success in this situation. They wanna hire someone at the wage that they're willing to pay but she says it's better for workers and the economy for people to spend a bit more time on unemployment so they can land a better job down the road in washington. I'm kimberly adams for marketplace. Once people get those jobs or the jobs they have get back closer to normal there is some friction you might say between workers and the bosses about the office specifically being in it. Some companies would like to have people back there. Some people would rather not marketplace's refinisher has that one. If you go into a job sites ziprecruiter about half of people looking for work say they want to work remote right now and almost half say that they would like a remote job even after. The pandemic is julia. Pollick is a labor economist with ziprecruiter which by the way is a current marketplace underwriter. Now that's where job seekers want. What they are being offered is something else only about nine or ten percent of job postings explicitly offer. The opportunity did work remotely now. That's a big increase from before the pandemic when only two percent of job postings offered remote work as an option but still there's is a big mismatch between what job seekers looking for and what's really available but a lot of employees are not playing around when they say they want to remote ops barbara holland is with the society for human resource management. They surveyed workers back in february one third of the respondents had said that they were willing to take a pay cut in order to continue working remotely and given employers have been screaming about a labor shortage. I think it's going to shift our job. Market some companies stand to gain dan scott illegal recruiter with got searched group. He says about forty percent of his clients. Mid midsize law firms are open to remote work. I am able to bring better people to those firms. It's just reality. Because they're looking at the best people. They're not looking at the best people in their market. The reality right now is less a war between employers and employees and more. Just a lot of experimenting. According to robert sutton an organizational psychologist at stanford. We're going to see what works and we're gonna make a lot of little mistakes so we we don't make big mistakes and of course. This is all connected to the tightness of the labor market when unemployment benefits run out and kids go back to school. The conversation over remote work very different in new york. I'm sabrina sure. For marketplace unemployment report comes out friday morning by the way. That is why. We're on jobs so hard this week. You heard about the ransomware attack on the world's biggest producer. I'm sure j. b. s. The company does say production is mostly getting back online today but if you needed evidence a cyber attack is coming soon to a company near you. There is this. The massachusetts steamship authority. Said today it has been hit in. Ransomware attack ferries are still running. Should you be traveling between woods hole. Martha's vineyard and nantucket cash only though the company says and you should probably expect some delays on land logged wall street today mostly status quo. We'll have don't quibble by the way on land lock wall street. Just don't details numbers. You know the drill said you're going to need way more than the fingers on one hand to count up the various shortages in this economy truck drivers talked about that one yesterday containers to move all the stuff we're buying on those trucks. And then there's all the stuff that goes into the stuff that goes into those containers. Semiconductors in lumber aluminum steel the list goes on and on all those shortages trickled down to the people trying to get stuff. They make into consumer's hands. India hines runs. A company called vinod temp. It makes refrigerated wine cabinet and imports ice makers and dishwashers and other appliances as well so we got her on the phone the other day to talk supply chain. We cannot get container. Space on the vessels Also there is a chip shortage so products are delayed And we're constantly getting price increases every day. It's a different problem we'll show there. Let's unpack that a little bit and let's start at the beginning containers coming out of. I'm assuming china is where they're coming from. How do you get container space at a time when pretty much everybody on the planet is screaming for container space. Well i don't. I think the right now so for example Last year we paid something like thirty five hundred dollars container. Now we're looking at ten thousand dollars a container and we are told if we pay a surplus fifteen hundred two thousand dollars surplus we can get some space so basically be ticking. The space to someone else so of course. I look at that as a shakedown. And then i get really mad. I'm like i'm not paying that. So the two companies that are getting space right now. So i hear our amazon and walmart and i'm a little guys so yeah line okay. So that's right. I feel your pain. okay. So that's containers talk to me about chips in semiconductors and and specifically you know we've all heard about cars and all those things that have a dozen or two chips in them. Wh how many chips do your appliances need and and is it. This is a strong word but existential problem for you because this chip shortage is going to be around for a while. So when i first heard it i was like i kinda thought. Oh it's just a moment on not like the freight problem which is really really a problem so far. There is a delay on a few models. But it's already delayed. So i think i'll know more the extent of this pain in about four months. That's not a short amount of time for months to michael but the cycle of products now east to be your order. Something get something in sixty days basically. Now you're looking. I mean i get emails saying order now because it's going to take six months to get your products in like six months so it's really difficult to try and provide proper inventory with this chain disruption. Right let's get to the third item price This is costing you money. This is costing you money. I'm sure to what extent can you pass that on or are you eating it. Or or what. The what okay. So we still to like the top retailers and the struggle. were having first to get pushback. I you're like what no one else is doing it. Okay right then you're like i don't have a choice. Have to pass it or there's just no point in selling the product you know breaking even or losing money so it. It's just kind of at that point where we raise it as much as we can't problem is is that they already raised it november. Then we got the last month or so saying raw materials. Everything's real expensive. Coppers expensive blah blah blah. Of course you know. I'm pushing back delaying pulling the trigger on some of these orders. Until i'm i'm just really trying to negotiate better pricing. Because i can't go back to my retailers they take sixty to ninety days to increase their pricing. So it's it's really nuts on the supply chain right now. She'll look what are you gonna do. Well i've had to stop a lot of products that i wanted to test. I've had to put every new kind of item on hold in just really focused on what i know. Cells luckily for me products that we were testing and that we might have stock of all are selling through so it's actually almost like a spring cleaning which that's the positive part for me so i'm not crying yet. I'm not happy with the product stock. I need it by all in all. We've managed this whole thing pretty well. India heinz companies called vetoed temp trying to manage through this pandemic hans. Thanks for your time. I appreciate my plastic moving to an entirely. Different kind of supply. Chain the supply of new workers graduating colleges and universities and work with me on the metaphor. There will you commencement. Season is well underway and there have been more impersonal ceremonies this year than last but plenty of virtual ones to derrick. Durum is one of the ten people. We've been following in our series about the american labor force. It's called the united states of work and he is the dean of the school of liberal arts and culture at minneapolis community and technical college. He sent us an update. So we just wrapped up Spring semester we had over thousand graduates. Another virtual graduation. There was a point where we didn't think that we'd ever get through this academic year. There's been a lot of a lot of work faculty of done to whether the pandemic and support students. And so hopefully they're enjoying a nice breathe right now. I'm staring at spreadsheets. Like i always. I always do so not much change here. Enrollment for summer is down. A percentage point to which is the first time. It's been down in our summer for a couple of years now. Prior to the pandemic our average student ages twenty eight. And we've seen it reduce. We're getting younger students. And so i don't know if that's a reflection of older students delaying their educational choices until they can be in person and so right now. It's kind of a guessing. Game with the cdc changing guidelines unmasking and social distancing. We're awaiting more direction from the minnesota department of health on what that will play out. But i would guess by july. We'll have a better idea of demand where students want to be might have to shift at that time. I'm still at home. I'll start transitioning back to campus on a rotational basis over the summer and then more fully in fall semester. I'm an introvert. Had to be on campus for an event a couple of weeks ago a community unity events. And i ran into a faculty member who has an office two doors down for mine and we sort of walked to the office together and that was like one of the things i'm like. Oh wow i hadn't thought about how sort of valuable and important those hallway. Conversations are not to mention it. Save me like nine other emails and the process dirk lindstrom there at minneapolis community and technical college. He's part of our series. The united states of work coming up. I was like this. This isn't adding up. you know. Sometimes it never does first though. Let's do the numbers dow industrial's up twenty five points today just under a tenth percent. Thirty four thousand. Six hundred nasdaq up. Nineteen points tenth percent. Thirteen thousand seven fifty six s and p five hundred found six points also about a tenth percent forty-two and eight two hundred billion dollars is a number we are looking at today. How much corporations have committed to racial equity and social justice since may of twenty twenty that's the calculation from the kinsey institute for black economic mobility which has much of that money is ended affordable housing and support of small and medium-sized businesses. Sabrina was telling us about employees. Prefer to work remotely even in a post pandemic world companies that outfit offices are catering to the work from home customer. Odp corporation. They own office depot. And max up half percent. Herman miller he of the chairs down seven tenths percent. Hp inc down two tenths percent. You're listening to marketplace from all of us at marketplace. Thank you for. Your support has year whether you just gave for the first time or have been a loyal donor for years. Your generosity makes our work possible marketplace investors. Keep this public service going strong. If you're not an investor yet there is still time to become one give anytime at marketplace.org/donate and again thanks. This marketplace podcast is supported. By cyber reason. If you're defender fighting to protect your organization from cyber attackers you must be successful ending attacks every single time. They only need to be successful. Once cyber reverses the attackers advantage their future ready attack platform gives defenders the wisdom to uncover understand and piece together multiple threats and the precision focused and cyber attacks instantly together. We are the defenders cyber reason and cyber attacks from endpoints everywhere learn more at cyber reason dot com slash marketplace. This is marketplace. i'm kai ryssdal. We talked work and the changes. Come into it as we got going today and while there is still a whole lot. We don't know about what work is going to be like in the long term. I will bet you a paycheck. There's going to be a bunch of video conferencing involved and as the risks from the virus. Fade we're probably not gonna throw it our ring lights all of a sudden but how we use video technology is probably going to change. Marketplaces megan mccarthy carino. Has that one. That's like that fifty pound sack of flour. You bought at the beginning of lockdown. Videoconferencing has gotten kinda stale over the last fourteen months. I'm on zumra about eight. Am in the morning sometimes until seven or eight pm. at night. i felt like i was living in a screen. Kyle arteaga runs a pr firm that used to have offices in san francisco nashville and dc. He's mostly gotten rid of them and transformed into a remote first workplace. He hopes will rely a little less on video conferencing soon. We're just gonna have to make rules and set parameters over when it makes sense. The technology is going from a substitute for social interactions. To just a tool says erik. Gordon a business professor at the university of michigan. I think we all learned something about the value of physical presence. People who irritated me in my office. I can't wait to see them again but it doesn't have to replace face to face to be useful says. Sit all neely a business professor at harvard. It's additive compliments even for people who might be called located. There's convenience to say hey let's get on zoom for fifteen minutes. A figure something out video chatting has become a reflex. We won't just drop but we'll use it. More sparingly says brian crop head of hr research at gartner. What are the tasks and activities and moments where we really need you to be in the office. And what are the ones where you don't need to be video. Works for one on one meetings or presentations but jerry shen new introductions are sharing a birthday cake probably better in person. Just don't use that old flower. I'm megan mccurdy carino for marketplace. Should you miss us on the air for some reason. Got a podcast. You check it out no matter how close relationship is it can still be incredibly difficult to talk about money. Studies actually show that arguments about money or a top predictor of divorce in this country and after a divorce among many other things it can be tough to be open again with a partner about your finances kind of thing you know really know how to prepare for because not a whole lot of people like to talk about it from our podcast. This is uncomfortable. Re mcrae's brings us a conversation between a couple that actually likes to doug about money even if they don't always agree. This spring of two thousand thirteen was one of the most difficult times and lindsay galbraith's life. She was pregnant with her second kid. Her husband had lost his job and storm had just caused a tree to fall on their house. One night she was busy handling insurance claims and pouring over the bills and i was looking at bank statements and it just. I was like this. This isn't adding up. She has her husband. Why isn't this adding up. He didn't say anything he left. The room came back with a suitcase. Full of clothes. Fully expecting lindsey to kick him out for what he was about to tell her and he showed me his bank account on his phone and it was hundreds of dollars in the hole overdrawn and he said i don't have any money. She caught him in a web of lies he'd been lying about getting unemployment and also had pretended to be enrolled in school after two years of trying to mend their relationship. Lindsey filed for divorce once. She started dating again. She vowed to keep her. Love life in money separate eventually. She met a guy named chris. Their first date was at a cocktail bar. Do you happen to remember what you talked about. I think one of the things that i really like to talk about his relationships meets like talking about your ex husband or just like conceptually relationships. I don't think so. She absolutely did talk about him at length. That's chris johnson lindsay's date and she was like ex-husband tree fell on my house like it. Just all came out chris. Lindsey have been together now for four years and they're pretty much on the same page about things except for when it comes to money. Chris wants to merge their finances but the thought of that especially after her divorce freaks lindsay out very on the some of that came from trauma. She very clearly was going to need time to come around to sutton things instead. each month. A chunk of christmas paycheck automatically gets deposited into lindsey's bank account and then she buys the groceries and pays the bills. They're still figuring it out but they were willing to let me sit down with them and record a conversation about how they manage their finances. I'm very comfortable this arrangement. How do you feel about it chris. To some extent that does feel a bit like infantilized. Seems a bit too extreme. But it's it's almost like it's saying a bit of a dangerous kind of parent child dynamic which is like you know. Potentially death for many relationships lindsay admits she likes to be in control and she worries what could happen if they pool their money. Like there will be some situation in which one of us isn't happy with the way the other person is spending money and it becomes contentious. So i think that what this comes down to. Is you doing For potential exit strategy than i am you are being more mindful of if we break up. Do i come out equitably with the amount that i deserve to come out with you. I mean you're you're right than it is like really about like what happens if we break up and solo. I am mindful of that. Because i don't think this is about me. No it's not about you at all. I know that you are very responsible with money and that you are not trying to swindle me in any way lake. So many people lindsay's relationship with the money is influenced by her past and she's trying to protect herself which can make it hard to compromise. Chris off and finds himself doing this delicate dance of being mindful of lindsay's boundaries while also trying to honor his own needs in how they manage their money about an hour into their conversation. He makes a pitch for at least a shared account for groceries. That small extra step adds a level of control for me or a level of ownership over the process that makes me feel as if i have some equal level of say okay. We can get account for the groceries. That's fine. I think we should use podcast interviews to mediate financial. Trump's chris says it's a step forward and a step away from an exit strategy. I'm ready matinees for marketplace. You can catch more of the conversation between chris and lindsay by following. This is uncomfortable. Wherever you get back. I known on the way out which comes as the white house announced a bunch of new ways to get getting the needed easier today and is our bush had this morning. It's going to buy twenty one and america. A round of beer wants the biden. Administration's goal of seventy percent vaccination is reached about which two things first of all beer question mark from anheuser busch. But maybe that's just me more to the point you read the fine print and you see the company is going to get your data. It's going to get your pictures and oh by the way it's really just a five dollar virtual debit card to the first two hundred thousand people who respond all right. We gotta go. Here is your moments of economic context though staying consistent with the theme of jobs today research out of the new school and economists teresa ghilarducci who we've had on the program she among others. It shows an extra that is unexpected. One point seven million workers over the age of fifty five retired of the pandemic. Jeff retired in particular. The research shows black workers without a college degree which is to say some of the most vulnerable people in this economy just retired because they couldn't get jobs are digital and on-demand team include foot memento lou over oxman. Erica phillips brian. Rana handing tony. Wagner's turn you have is is our executive director of on demand. I'm kai ryssdal. We'll see marbot this. Apm this marketplace. Podcast is supported by geico. Do you own your home. Sure you do. And i bet it can be hard work you know what's easy bundling policies with geico geico makes it easy to bundle your homeowner's or renter's insurance along with your auto policy. It's a good thing too because you already have so much to do around your home. Go to geico dot com. Get a quote and see how much you could save. Its gyco easy visit. Geico dot com. Today that's geico dot com.

kimberly adams kai ryssdal minneapolis community and tech Andrew statiners century foundation Kate bond washington center for equitabl katherine edwards Pollick barbara holland robert sutton massachusetts steamship author stanford vinod temp stanford graduate school of bu