33 Burst results for "Kashkari"
Simply Bitcoin
A highlight from Taiwan's Next Embracing Bitcoin?! | EP 863
"It's all going to zero against Bitcoin. It's going on forever. You're against Bitcoin. You're against freedom. Yo, what's up? We are back. We're back for another episode of Simply Bitcoin. And today is an interesting story. I did have to do some deep dive for this one. So game theory is heating up in China, guys. The first reading of Taiwan's crypto bill passes. And depending on the source, Taiwan might be on the verge of making Bitcoin legal tender January 24th. It almost seems like this is happening. It's almost like it's inevitable. And Taiwan is embracing Bitcoin. And we all know the saga between China, that we know that we won China policy. We've been covering this all year. And we know how many times China banned Bitcoin. They banned mining. We've seen even Taiwan themselves try to ban Bitcoin. But of course, you can't ban Bitcoin. You can only ban yourself from Bitcoin. And even this week, on Mainland, Hong Kong has been mulling over whether they are going to embrace an ETF as well. So it really makes you wonder. And if you go back for a couple episodes, Niko and I went over this, the idea of maybe China is using different proxies to embrace Bitcoin after officially banning Bitcoin. The dip last we saw, I think that was 2021 now, it's all a blur at this point. Some days they're banning it. Some days they're embracing it. Well, it seems like China or Taiwan, forgive me, is about to make Bitcoin legal tender. And remember, one of the IRLs we did, we had a friend come on here and I'm blanking on exactly which one it was. But he said basically that what they mean when they say crypto is really Bitcoin and they do not talk about what they have under their mattress. So whenever you're hearing crypto come out from the Asian countries, from China in particular, remember that they know what we know. It is Bitcoin only. And there's Bitcoin and then there's other cryptos. Anyways, Bitcoin's global game theory chess match is playing out in real time, guys. And as a Bitcoiner, you just love to see it. The Mexican standoff is continuing to get spicier. It's continuing to heat up. And it's going to be very interesting to see which countries get left behind, which countries don't embrace hard money. And also in that same vein, which countries are fighting their citizenry. And as we always say, forcing them to have fun staying poor. Anyways, welcome to Simply Bitcoin. We are your number one source for the peaceful Bitcoin revolution. We cover breaking news, culture and nomadic warfare. We bring on Bitcoiners from all around the world, from the biggest names to the everyday Bitcoiner. We got them all and we will be your guide through the separation of money and state. And of course, I am not here alone, guys. I am here with Dell, the funky hodl sapien. How are you doing this morning, Dell? Good. I'm dandy. I'm chilling, relaxing, moisturized in my own lane, sitting in a 45 gallon tub of lotion right now. It feels pretty luxurious. Absolutely love it. OK, well, Dell, what are we going to cover on the culture today? We're going to cover that you can't really stop the Internet. You can't stop things from happening the way you want it to. I imagine most of the people that come to this channel are interested in Bitcoin surviving. That's my assumption. There might be some people that come pass by like, oh, what's this all about? But I get the impression that the regulars that I see in the chat, you're Roman, you're wine a kiss. Tyler Durden, what I'm not going to try and talk for wine a kiss. He's a he's a he's a strange cat. That one is people that I see in day in and day out. They're people that are they understand Bitcoin to some degree. They like it to some degree. And they're yeah, thumbs up to that Bitcoin thing. But the idea that it could die or shut down is not something that a lot of us think about all that much. We're like, oh, it can't happen. But here's a question for you, Opti. If you were given a challenge, let's say let's say somebody comes along, Michael Saylor, whatever anybody that you know has the money to say, I'm going to give you a million dollar bounty to shut down Bitcoin. Could you do that? You think you could? Not for a million. There's literally a half a trillion dollar bounty on Bitcoin. You got to you got to you got to put those numbers up. Well, like, do you think you could do it at all? Me personally? No. Yeah. Yeah, exactly. And so the idea that there is some individual out there or group of people that can shut it down is preposterous. But yet there's still and we're going to play this clip. People out there that are honestly, they're relatively smart people in many fields and there's a lot of really smart people that don't understand Bitcoin. It's like shut down. Shut down the Internet. What are you going to do? Go in. People, people are concerned about that, Del. That is definitely on people's minds. Well, I get that. But why? Like, tell me how that happens. Like, walk me through exactly how how it how that would work. Like, please. Like, if you can do it, if somebody can do it, I truly as much as I would like to see tomorrow, would like you would like to see somebody shut down Bitcoin. So we're going to be talking about that in the culture. Like, you can't do it. Like, I want you to if you can, if somebody in chat can do that, by all means, go and do it. Because we need to know that that's a vulnerability when we need to know how that could happen. And oh, wow, there's a guy that's in the simply Bitcoin chat that has the ability to go and flip a switch and shut off Bitcoin. That we should know about that. And I mean, that'd be so funny. Someone in the chat just shuts it off. Anyway, anyway, side tangents. I mean, we even see it and we hear this all the time. I hear this all the time when I talk to my normie friends out there. They're like, what if, you know, like in twenty seventeen, it was like, what if China bans Bitcoin? And like they did it and it didn't stop Bitcoin. I am convinced that every three letter agency around the world, that nation states have also tried to attack Bitcoin and they continue to try to attack Bitcoin. But they can't stop this. They cannot stop digital money for the digital world. And even if the even if we got like some weird by chance EMP or something that shut off all of electricity, we will never go back to a time without the Internet. I am fully convinced of that. The Internet is something that that is ubiquitous with the modern world. It put a pause on things. If people talk about that, like, oh, well, what about. OK, well, just imagine if things that are escalating over in the Middle East and then the whole Russia, Ukraine thing, like imagine things really take off. And they detonate a nuke in the atmosphere over every country in the world and all the Internet goes out. What about your Bitcoin then? Like, do you even hear what you're saying? Like, imagine that scenario and the thing that is going to be on people's minds is food, shelter, is my family safe? And then probably after the first 24 hours, where can I get a I'm just going to say it, a hand job where where the sex workers like where where can I go and trade these bullets that have been stocking up for, you know, a little me time with with Old Destiny over there? And I do mean old because she was in the business for a hot minute and she's looking a little more now, but she's got the experience. And that's what you're going to want to go to when times are tough. You're going to want to go to the person that knows how to get you to that happy place. So, yeah, you're going to check in on Destiny and give her some bullets for some fun times. But you're not going to be thinking about Bitcoin. You're not going to be thinking about all my cat pictures and all the trad wives on Twitter talking about how they're grass feeding their goats. No, you're not going to be paying attention to any of that. You're gonna be like, what do I need to survive? That's it. That is that is it. That's all you're going to be paying attention to. So this idea that, oh, what happens to your Bitcoin? It's like, go fuck yourself. What are you talking about? Listen to yourself. Is grandma alive in a nursing home? Because there's no oxygen on. What's your first concern if the nukes go off and there's no Internet Opti? Is it is my note still on? No, it's thinking about people in my local community and can I survive? Exactly. Exactly. All right. Well, this is going to be a spicy one. I can already tell this is going to be a spicy one. Let's get into the show, guys. This time seeds do it yourself kit has everything you need to hammer your seed words into commercial grade titanium plates instead of just writing them on paper. Don't store your generational wealth on paper. Paper is prone to water damage, fire damage. You want to put your generational wealth on one of the strongest metals on planet Earth, titanium. Your words are actually stamped into this metal plate with this hammer and these letter stamps. And once your words are in, they aren't going anywhere. No risk of the plate breaking apart and pieces falling everywhere. Titanium stamp seeds will survive nearly triple the heat produced by a house fire. They're also crush proof, waterproof, non corrosive and time proof. All things that paper is not allowing you to huddle your Bitcoin with peace of mind for the long haul. Stamp your seed on stamp seed. Yeah, the chat. You guys are wild. Love you guys. Anyway, we made this easy for you. Scan the QR code. Make sure your seed phrases backed up on something stronger than just a piece of paper in your sock drawer. Make sure it's backed up on titanium, guys. This is the way scan the QR code. Get yourself a stamp seed kit. And we have been in the talks of getting a simply Bitcoin branded one. But maybe maybe you don't want that OPSEC unfriendly version. But anyways, scan the QR code. Go check it out. Get yourself one. Stamp your seed in titanium. All right, guys. Anyways, we're over here on the numbers. We're at Clark Moody's dashboard. Of course, my favorite number is the block height. We are currently at eight hundred and fifteen thousand eight hundred and eighty six. Take talk next block. Honey, bad you don't care. Blocks keep coming in. We are what? Twenty four thousand one hundred and fourteen blocks away from the halving roughly around April 20th of twenty twenty four. So it's happening in time, guys. We know exactly what's happening with the monetary policy that is Bitcoin. You love to see it. Bitcoin is my stable coin. Bitcoin is stability. Anyways, the current price on Bitcoin is thirty five thousand three hundred and forty dollars per Bitcoin. The Moscow time, a .k .a. how much your fiat dollars worth, a .k .a. how much Bitcoin you can buy for a single U .S. dollar is two thousand eight hundred and thirty cents per dollar. The percentage of total Bitcoin that will ever be issued is ninety three point zero three percent. The market cap and fiat terms of Bitcoin is six hundred and ninety billion dollars or six hundred ninety point three billion dollars. The realized monetary inflation of Bitcoin taking fiat currencies to school is one point seventy four percent. It's going to get cut in half. Well, I think it's going to slowly. Is it going to get cut in half? I think it's going to cut in half. I think that's what the halving does to it. Anyways, Bitcoin versus gold market cap is currently at five point two seven percent. We are only at five point two seven percent of the gold market cap. The hard money gang. We're coming for gold. Gold market cap is ten trillion dollars. Only five percent of that, guys. And you guys are bearish out there. Couldn't be me. Can't relate. Anyways, the total public lightning capacity is five thousand three hundred and five point zero seven BTC. The hash rate has been going absolutely parabolic. Of course, this is just a rough guesstimate of what is going on on the Bitcoin network. But something is happening and people are uploading and turning on a lot of A6. The last 90 days, we are at four hundred and twenty point one exahashes. The pending fees. Oh, my goodness. It's spiking right now. Eleven point four four BTC, at least according to the mempool that Clark Moody is connected to. We've been telling you for a while. You wanted to make sure that you are consolidating your UTXOs because things are going to get crazy. This will probably cool down a little bit. I think I did hear that there's some like ordinal BRC 20 stuff going on right now. Yeah. So that's probably why we're seeing this spike right now in the fee market. So once it gets a little cooler, oops, oops, sorry. It gets a little cooler. Not wrong, though. Yeah, not wrong. Once you once you get a little cooler in the fee market, I suggest you guys take the opportunity to consolidate your UTXOs. Make sure that you have good UTXO hygiene. Anyways. All right, guys, I'm going to connect last night's TTO that I did with CJ. I hope you guys watch that. I do have it up here for you guys to show you that you need to go watch this. And I took a little piece out of there. But here we are. We got Neil Kashkar. And remember who he is. He's the crazy guy that was coming out when we were going through the the, you know, the flu pandemic. And he was telling us that they can print unlimited money. And they clarified that question. And we got the memes of him with crazy eyes, like, wait, so you're telling me you can print unlimited money? And he said, yes, that's exactly what I'm telling you. Well, here he is again. And if you listen to last night's TTO. And you will listen to this this morning. You really start to realize just how detached these quote unquote elites are, how detached the Fed is from reality. You really would ask yourself what is going on. And again, I reference the white paper constantly on here because it's literally in the first paragraph of the white paper. Satoshi was so prescient when it came to this because he saw the fundamental problem of the fiat system. It is its trust based system, inherent trust that you need to just trust that these people know what they're doing. And we're seeing in real time that people still seem to trust them. And if you look at the data. There is no reason to trust them. Anyways, Neel Kashkari in this little video here goes, I'm not seeing a lot of evidence that the economy is weakening. And he discusses market expectations for an interest rate cut by the central bank next year. So let's just listen to him and remember the idea that the only reason the system is continuing to hobble along as it is, is because people out there still believe these people in the suits that they know what is going on. Trust the experts. They know exactly what's going on. Trust the guy in the suit on the television telling you that they have the economy under control, that interest rates are under control, that the Fed knows where we're going. And if you really look at the data, it may be completely different and telling you a different story. Anyways, let's listen to this, guys. You said that people want certainty and that you can't give it to them. And I understand that. But people don't just want certainty. They also want some sort of guiding philosophy. Do you think that Fed Chair Powell has outlined some sort of guiding philosophy on where the bar is to cut rates, on where the bar is to raise them further? Well, I think he's articulated very clearly that we're committed to getting back to 2 % inflation, right? There's been some chatter amongst economists that maybe we should raise the inflation target. I think he's done a great job saying that is not on the table. We're not going to do that. We're going to get inflation back to 2%. And we're going to let the data guide us. We've moved very aggressively. We've made a lot of progress on inflation. We're not done yet, meaning inflation is not back to our target. And if we need to do more, we will. There seems to be a feeling in markets that the bar to cut rates has been lowered over the past week or two weeks. That suddenly, not only are we reaching a pause, and have we seen a peak in the Fed funds rate, but that also the Fed will cut next year, maybe surgically. Neil Dutta is talking about that. He's coming up next. Do you want to push back against that? Do you think that the bar to cut is still just as high as it was? I have no idea where market participants are getting that. There's no discussion amongst me and any of my colleagues about when we're going to start preparing to cut rates. The only thing that's been talked about at all is that at some point, when inflation is well on its way back down, if we didn't back off a little bit, the real rates would be getting tighter and tighter and tighter. And that's real, but that's math. But is there enough weakness currently in the market, in the economy, I should say, to give you that sense at this point? Look at the last GDP print. I mean, does anybody look at that and think, oh my gosh, the economy? For the last 12 months, GDP has been very strong. The labor market continues to be quite robust. Yes, the unemployment rate has ticked up to 3 .9%, but we've also seen a huge surge of labor supply, which is really positive, come online. So I'm looking at this. I'm seeing consumers that are strong. By the way, my airplane that I came here on was 100 % full yesterday. It's going to be 100 % full today. I'm not seeing a lot of evidence that the economy is weakening.
Bloomberg Daybreak Europe
Fresh update on "kashkari" discussed on Bloomberg Daybreak Europe
"People call that the ice and our company and the ice age. The Fed's top names are on Bloomberg Radio. Atlanta Fed President Avowal Bostic. Today my outlook is that we're going to stay on that slow and steady. Minneapolis Fed President Neil Kashkari. have We to let the inflation data guide us the labor market data guide us. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daley. We are committed to keeping rates higher for longer. Listen on Bloomberg or any time on the Bloomberg Talks podcast. Bloomberg. Context changes everything. Bloomberg radio on demand and in your podcast feed on the latest edition of the Masters in Business podcast, a conversation with Peter Atwater, author of The So I teach a class in financial economics at William & Mary and the first day of class, what is it about finance that makes its difference? It's decision making where the income is to be determined. So
CoinDesk Podcast Network
A highlight from MARKETS DAILY: Crypto Update | Institutional Interest in Chainlink, Circle Considering an IPO
"This episode of Markets Daily is sponsored by CME Group and PayPal. It's Wednesday, November 8th, 2023, and this is Markets Daily from CoinDesk. My name is Noelle Acheson, CoinDesk collaborator and author of the Crypto is Macro Now newsletter on Substack. On today's show, we're talking about a possible crypto IPO, Chainlink, Fed comments, and more. So you don't miss an episode, be sure to follow the podcast on your platform of choice and turn on notifications. Just a reminder, CoinDesk is a news source and does not provide investment advice. Now, a markets roundup. Crypto markets perked up yesterday, with a sharp jump late in the day at one point pushing the Bitcoin price above $35 ,700. It has since settled back some, but seems to be holding on to the gains. At 9am Eastern Time today, Bitcoin was trading at $35 ,400, up 1 .8 % over the past 24 hours. Ether was trading up 1 % at $1 ,890. Elsewhere, Chainlink, Polygon, and TonCoin are up 8%, Solana, Cardano, and Polkadot are up 3%. In macro indicators today, it's time to talk about talking. I'm referring to the attention paid to speeches and interviews given by Fed officials, at events, on television, at universities, wherever, and why it matters. And I mention it today, because Fed officials do like to get out there and deliver their message, nothing new there. But this week seems to be particularly noisy. This morning, I counted 15 scheduled Fed official public remarks for this week alone, and there were probably some I didn't catch. Two are from Fed Chair Powell himself. First, let's look at why they do this, and then we'll get into why we should pay attention, and also what they are saying. They do this for several reasons, one of which is personal branding. Another is broader education, that's part of the job. In case you haven't noticed, the Federal Reserve even has an Instagram account now and posts regularly. Perhaps the most relevant reason, however, is the messaging coming from people involved in setting US interest rates. Each Fed official is allowed to say what they think they don't have to conform to any official statement, and because of this, their comments shed light on what goes on behind the closed doors of the FOMC committee, and what factors could influence the next interest rate decision. For that reason, we should pay attention. This may be hard since there is so much Fed speak, but even just glimpsing at reports of official comments can give a feel for where the collective mood is, and this can help to shape expectations of where interest rates could go from here. So, let's take a look at what Fed officials are saying. On Friday, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he thought the Fed was done raising interest rates. On Monday, Minneapolis Fed President Neil Kashkari hinted that he thought there were more interest rate hikes ahead. In speeches on Monday and today, Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook said that she hoped that no more rate hikes would be needed, but that escalating geopolitical tensions could spill over into higher inflation. Yesterday, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee hammered home that any move on rates will depend on inflation, not on jobs or economic growth. In other words, heading into a recession will not budge the Fed. There are several other comments as well, and taken together, they give the impression of a Federal Reserve Board that is not in unanimous agreement about the rates outlook, but that does with one voice stress the importance of the inflation numbers. That does not mean other economic data points are not significant. After all, pretty much everything is intertwined. But it does mean that the inflation data is the most significant.
Markets Daily Crypto Roundup
A highlight from Crypto Update | Institutional Interest in Chainlink, Circle Considering an IPO
"This episode of Markets Daily is sponsored by CME Group and PayPal. It's Wednesday, November 8th, 2023, and this is Markets Daily from CoinDesk. My name is Noelle Acheson, CoinDesk collaborator and author of the Crypto is Macro Now newsletter on Substack. On today's show, we're talking about a possible crypto IPO, Chainlink, Fed comments, and more. So you don't miss an episode, be sure to follow the podcast on your platform of choice and turn on notifications. Just a reminder, CoinDesk is a news source and does not provide investment advice. Now, a markets roundup. Crypto markets perked up yesterday, with a sharp jump late in the day at one point pushing the Bitcoin price above $35 ,700. It has since settled back some, but seems to be holding on to the gains. At 9am Eastern Time today, Bitcoin was trading at $35 ,400, up 1 .8 % over the past 24 hours. Ether was trading up 1 % at $1 ,890. Elsewhere, Chainlink, Polygon, and TonCoin are up 8%, Solana, Cardano, and Polkadot are up 3%. In macro indicators today, it's time to talk about talking. I'm referring to the attention paid to speeches and interviews given by Fed officials, at events, on television, at universities, wherever, and why it matters. And I mention it today, because Fed officials do like to get out there and deliver their message, nothing new there. But this week seems to be particularly noisy. This morning, I counted 15 scheduled Fed official public remarks for this week alone, and there were probably some I didn't catch. Two are from Fed Chair Powell himself. First, let's look at why they do this, and then we'll get into why we should pay attention, and also what they are saying. They do this for several reasons, one of which is personal branding. Another is broader education, that's part of the job. In case you haven't noticed, the Federal Reserve even has an Instagram account now and posts regularly. Perhaps the most relevant reason, however, is the messaging coming from people involved in setting US interest rates. Each Fed official is allowed to say what they think they don't have to conform to any official statement, and because of this, their comments shed light on what goes on behind the closed doors of the FOMC committee, and what factors could influence the next interest rate decision. For that reason, we should pay attention. This may be hard since there is so much Fed speak, but even just glimpsing at reports of official comments can give a feel for where the collective mood is, and this can help to shape expectations of where interest rates could go from here. So, let's take a look at what Fed officials are saying. On Friday, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he thought the Fed was done raising interest rates. On Monday, Minneapolis Fed President Neil Kashkari hinted that he thought there were more interest rate hikes ahead. In speeches on Monday and today, Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook said that she hoped that no more rate hikes would be needed, but that escalating geopolitical tensions could spill over into higher inflation. Yesterday, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee hammered home that any move on rates will depend on inflation, not on jobs or economic growth. In other words, heading into a recession will not budge the Fed. There are several other comments as well, and taken together, they give the impression of a Federal Reserve Board that is not in unanimous agreement about the rates outlook, but that does with one voice stress the importance of the inflation numbers. That does not mean other economic data points are not significant. After all, pretty much everything is intertwined. But it does mean that the inflation data is the most significant.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"kashkari" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Conversation is going to continue in just a moment with Neil of Renaissance macro before we get there just to check in on some of the scores right now in financial markets equity futures a touch negative by a quarter of one percent on the S &P yields a touch lower by single basis point four sixty two eighty seven the dollar a little stronger against the euro one of six eighty three that currency pan negative here Lisa by about zero point three percent I thought it was interesting that kashkari Neil was talking about the dollar and the strength they're sort of kind of raising doubts about the story that at the yield increase was really due to the increase in the debt increase in deficits increase in anxiety around the US political system that was interesting to me that normally you would see the dollar weekend the fact haven't makes him sort of question whether this is a supply -driven story I might push back that the rest of the world looks worse even so there is that sort of issue but you know this has been one of the big conundrums given the position they're in they cannot talk about rate cuts yes they can't even imply that they're thinking about rate cuts and that's the conversation we need to have right now with Neil Dutta the head of US economic research at Renaissance macro Neil good morning to you good morning let's go straight there because my IP was lighting up with messages from you we're not thinking about tapering two months later cutting a month later what do you think is going on within the FOMC where do you think this is going? well I think I agree that it doesn't pay much to forecast right now it's important just to look at the data as it's coming to you and so I do sympathize with that but at the end of the day I mean the unemployment rate is up above the feds forecast for this year that's and the first time that's happened since March of 2022 now you know when you're in the thick of it it's hard to know whether that represents the start of something much more onerous or whether it's just the normalization of the labor market but I think for the fed I think the doves on the FOMC and remember you know President Shkary he tends to lean on the hawkish side of the consensus at the Fed I think for for the doves they have all the ammunition they need to basically put the Hawks in a casket okay I mean I think that's the way I would think about it I mean you can point to the pickup and productivity and what that's done to unit labor costs you can you can point to what Powell has said right I mean when central bankers use proceed carefully risk management that's code for doing nothing and finally I mean the employment report was probably understating growth payroll that's my view I mean there was a lot of strike activity so and forth but at the end of the day average hourly earnings are running just over 3 % at an annual rate over the last several months so I don't think the Hawks on the committee frankly can use the labor markets as a rationale to be hawkish anymore so that is over and so you can I think the doves can basically say that the labor markets have been rebalanced and if they can say that just implicitly it means that the door is a little bit cracked open for for a cut and you you know the point I'm making to you is you know Jay Powell it wouldn't be the first time he basically you you know flipped on a dime I mean we're a long way from neutral I mean a few months later he's cutting rates we're not even thinking about thinking talking about tapering or hiking and then we're hiking and tapering basically in the same month so you know to me the fact that they're not talking about it is irrelevant it's also in their SCP for next year the question is whether surgical cuts what are surgical cuts basically a few cuts to stabilize the economy I mean I think that the issue is is the extent to which cutting quickly translates into rapid economic stabilization so I mean for as an example I mean let's let's see see what happens with mortgage purchase demand over the next couple of weeks we've seen mortgage rates basically come down to what like 7 % okay wait I'm trying to wrap my head around this six months ago you were talking about way more economic strength in the in the US economy than people had expected now you're talking about strategic or surgical cuts by the Federal Reserve to economy stabilize are you saying that they are warranted because the economy is that job my isn't to tell people what I think the Fed should do my job is to to try get into their head and figure out what they will do I mean if I was there would I be I would probably be more hawkish than the consensus on the FOMC but I'm not there well but does this mean that you think the consequence of surgical cuts to fortify the economy will be prolonged inflation yes okay so then how sort do you of arrange around that sort of what is the inflation rate how do you sort of lean into the the rally that we've seen in the bond market and say wait a second you guys have gotten ahead of your skis based on the game theory that the Fed is playing and the way that they're likely to do surgical cuts I don't know that the bond markets getting ahead of itself I think the market bond is sniffing out that the distribution of risks have changed I don't know what the Fed may do next I mean that that's that's what what I think the bond market is doing and I think bond market investors are right to do that because as I say you know you think about it basically three prongs right the labor market inflation and then financial conditions if the Fed can look at the labor market and say the labor markets are rebalanced okay that's check done you know you can't use that anymore as a reason to be hawkish so if anything if the unemployment rates not going up a little bit the distribution of risks are that they would cut because the labor markets and right if the labor markets are thawing that's gonna give them increased confidence that inflation will thaw and so and then finally if that's the case they're not going to be particularly concerned about the easing in
CoinDesk Podcast Network
A highlight from MARKETS DAILY: Crypto Update | The Tone of the Federal Reserve Is Shifting
"This episode of Markets Daily is sponsored by CME Group. It's Wednesday, October 11th, 2023, and this is Markets Daily from Coindesk. My name is Noelle Acheson, Coindesk collaborator and author of the Crypto is Macro Now newsletter on Substack. On today's show, we're talking about spot ETFs, Bitcoin, inflation, and more. So you don't miss an episode, be sure to follow the podcast on your platform of choice. And just a reminder, Coindesk is a news source and does not provide investment advice. Now, a markets roundup. Crypto markets are particularly choppy at the moment, with general risk -off sentiment keeping a lid on prices. After drifting lower yesterday, Bitcoin's price dropped sharply this morning, at one point shedding 1 .1 % in just five minutes. It has since recovered part of the loss. According to Coindesk indices, at 8 a .m. Eastern time today, Bitcoin was down 1 % over the past 24 hours, trading at $27 ,230. Ether dropped even more sharply, losing 1 .5 % in the same five minutes. Unlike Bitcoin, however, it has since clawed back all of that loss. However, it is still down roughly four -tenths of a percent over the past 24 hours, trading at $1 ,575. Even though Bitcoin's price has not been doing well this week, it is still up 1 % so far this month. October is typically a strong month for Bitcoin, with an average return of all Octobers since 2010 of 25%. Obviously, averages are just that, the average of a range of movements. But if that average is met this month, that would put Bitcoin at just over $34 ,000. Moving on to signals in the macro market, we now have more confirmation that the tone of the Federal Reserve is shifting. In yesterday's episode, I spoke about comments on Monday from two Federal Reserve officials. These suggested that the central bank was now more willing to let the bond market handle some of the tightening going forward, implying that the Fed wouldn't need to raise rates quite as much. Well, yesterday we heard from more central bank representatives. Minneapolis Fed President Neil Kashkari echoed the earlier comments of his colleagues. So did San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic went even further and said the quiet part out loud, I quote, I actually don't think we need to increase rates anymore, end quote. On this bond yields fell further. Remember that bond yields move inversely to price. Earlier today, the 10 -year US Treasury yield almost reached 4 .5%, its lowest point since late September, after yesterday, registering its steepest one -day drop since August. This yield adjustment is largely in the long end of the yield curve. The rate on US two -year notes is up on yesterday's close, while the 10 -year yield is still falling down 1 .4 % or 6 basis points earlier today. Yields are still high across the board, though. This will continue to apply pressure to corporate profitability and bank balance sheets. In other macro news, yesterday we saw the leading small business optimism index decline for the second month in a row. A small increase had been expected. Also, US producer prices are just out. These measure selling prices from domestic producers and are another way to look at inflation. The index rose half a percent month over month in September, more than expected, but the smallest increase in three months. In other words, inflation continues to moderate, but is far from vanquished.
Markets Daily Crypto Roundup
A highlight from Crypto Update | The Tone of the Federal Reserve Is Shifting
"This episode of Markets Daily is sponsored by CME Group. It's Wednesday, October 11th, 2023, and this is Markets Daily from Coindesk. My name is Noelle Acheson, Coindesk collaborator and author of the Crypto is Macro Now newsletter on Substack. On today's show, we're talking about spot ETFs, Bitcoin, inflation, and more. So you don't miss an episode, be sure to follow the podcast on your platform of choice. And just a reminder, Coindesk is a news source and does not provide investment advice. Now, a markets roundup. Crypto markets are particularly choppy at the moment, with general risk -off sentiment keeping a lid on prices. After drifting lower yesterday, Bitcoin's price dropped sharply this morning, at one point shedding 1 .1 % in just five minutes. It has since recovered part of the loss. According to Coindesk indices, at 8 a .m. Eastern time today, Bitcoin was down 1 % over the past 24 hours, trading at $27 ,230. Ether dropped even more sharply, losing 1 .5 % in the same five minutes. Unlike Bitcoin, however, it has since clawed back all of that loss. However, it is still down roughly four -tenths of a percent over the past 24 hours, trading at $1 ,575. Even though Bitcoin's price has not been doing well this week, it is still up 1 % so far this month. October is typically a strong month for Bitcoin, with an average return of all Octobers since 2010 of 25%. Obviously, averages are just that, the average of a range of movements. But if that average is met this month, that would put Bitcoin at just over $34 ,000. Moving on to signals in the macro market, we now have more confirmation that the tone of the Federal Reserve is shifting. In yesterday's episode, I spoke about comments on Monday from two Federal Reserve officials. These suggested that the central bank was now more willing to let the bond market handle some of the tightening going forward, implying that the Fed wouldn't need to raise rates quite as much. Well, yesterday we heard from more central bank representatives. Minneapolis Fed President Neil Kashkari echoed the earlier comments of his colleagues. So did San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic went even further and said the quiet part out loud, I quote, I actually don't think we need to increase rates anymore, end quote. On this bond yields fell further. Remember that bond yields move inversely to price. Earlier today, the 10 -year US Treasury yield almost reached 4 .5%, its lowest point since late September, after yesterday, registering its steepest one -day drop since August. This yield adjustment is largely in the long end of the yield curve. The rate on US two -year notes is up on yesterday's close, while the 10 -year yield is still falling down 1 .4 % or 6 basis points earlier today. Yields are still high across the board, though. This will continue to apply pressure to corporate profitability and bank balance sheets. In other macro news, yesterday we saw the leading small business optimism index decline for the second month in a row. A small increase had been expected. Also, US producer prices are just out. These measure selling prices from domestic producers and are another way to look at inflation. The index rose half a percent month over month in September, more than expected, but the smallest increase in three months. In other words, inflation continues to moderate, but is far from vanquished.
Bloomberg Radio New York - Recording Feed
Monitor Show 07:00 10-11-2023 07:00
"Now, through October 13th, you can join Planet Fitness for just $1 down, $10 a month. With free fitness training and most clubs open 24 hours, it's the most convenient place to get that big fitness energy. Join for just $1 down, $10 a month, no commitment, cancel any time. Deal ends October 13th. See you above for details. This is Bloomberg Radio. Investors are lacking conviction one way or another, and I think perhaps key to this will be whether or not this conflict does expand. When you see rates move at this speed and in this quantity, you always worry that something may fall off the bus. I think the mindset and the thought process is finally shifting after years and years of low interest rates. Everybody's worried about their ability to finance. We're not fully back to where we need to be to say mission accomplished. This is Bloomberg Surveillance with Tom Kean, Jonathan Market move is absolutely phenomenal. Life from New York City this morning. Good morning, good morning. For our audience worldwide, this is Bloomberg Surveillance on TV and radio. Alongside Lisa Brabits, I'm Jonathan Ferro. Yields down, double digits, twos out to thirties in yesterday's session. This morning, we're down another 10 basis points on a 10 -year lease of $4 .55. And why? Is it just perplexing, as Neil Kashkari says, or is there something real behind this move, whether it has to do with concerns about geopolitical risk or whether it's having to do with this idea that maybe Fed officials won't raise rates again and will take a more dovish stance, given that rates had gone up so much. And yet, if they reverse too much, that creates a bit of a problem. It's odd that Kashkari is equally perplexed, but also saying it's possible that rising yields might mean the Fed has to do less. So without any real understanding of why they're higher, they're happy to outsource monetary policy to whatever the bond market is doing. I mean, essentially, monetary policy uses the bond market as a transmission mechanism. So if the bond market is going in a certain direction, they don't have to understand it. And if it be...
The Breakdown
A highlight from Anti-CBDC Bills Advance in Congress
"Welcome back to The Breakdown with me, NLW. It's a daily podcast on macro, Bitcoin, and the big picture power shifts remaking our world. What's going on, guys? It is Monday, September 18th, and today we are talking about anti -CBDC legislation being advanced. Before we get into that, however, if you are enjoying The Breakdown, please go subscribe to it, give it a rating, give it a review, or, if you want to dive deeper into the conversation, come join us on the Breakers Discord. You can find a link in the show notes or go to bit .ly slash breakdown pod. Hello, friends. Happy Monday. Welcome to another week, another frankly weirdly quiet week right now. I don't know. There's something out there. There's some bad juju. I guess it could just be another example of this weird period of the cycle that we're in that's sort of past the worst, but definitely before the good stuff starts again, but I'm excited. But we are not going to dwell on that. Instead, we are going to hop, skip, and jump through a number of things that have happened over the last few days, kicking it off with what has become a surprising political issue this election cycle, which is central bank digital currencies. The House Financial Services Committee will hold a markup section on Wednesday, which will include two bills aimed at preventing the issuance of a US CBDC. The first bill is Tom Emmer's CBDC Anti -Surveillance State Act, which would prevent the Federal Reserve from offering any products or services directly to individuals. Fed branches would also be prohibited from keeping accounts for individuals or issuing a CBDC or similar digital assets. Emmer's bill was recently reintroduced during last week's CBDC hearing and now boasts 49 co -sponsors. On September 14th, the House Majority Whip tweeted, A governmental tool for financial surveillance is un -American. We must urgently develop a digital financial system that is 1. Open and freely accessible to all. 2. Without requiring permission from the government or anybody else. 3. Private safeguarding the user's identity. In a separate tweet, he had said, If not open, permissionless, and private, like cash, a CBDC is nothing more than a CCP -style surveillance tool that can be weaponized to oppress the American way of life. The second bill is sponsored by Alex Mooney and is called the Digital Dollar Pilot Prevention Act. That bill is structured as an amendment of the Federal Reserve Act of 1913 that would prevent Federal Reserve branches from even conducting CBDC testing and development. Now, of course, senior Fed officials have gone on the record to say they have no plans to issue a CBDC without the approval of Congress. In May, Minneapolis Fed President Neil Kashkari even questioned the need for a CBDC given the existence of instant payment fintech services. He noted that CBDCs would be a powerful financial surveillance tool and could enforce negative interest rates, but questioned why the U .S. government would have any interest in constructing such a system. Now, all that said, some Fed branches still do seem to be interested in the development of CBDC technology. The San Francisco Fed, for example, recently advertised a position for a crypto -architect for a CBDC project, and Project Hamilton was concluded and wound down in December after two years of collaboration between the Boston Fed and MIT. Now, in terms of where this legislation actually is, the markup process allows committee members to comment on the drafting of bills. A vote is then taken on whether or not to approve legislation for a full House vote. Both bills are only a few paragraphs long, so shouldn't drag out to an all -day, contested affair as we recently saw with the stablecoin bill. Instead, the bills could act as a bellwether for congressional sentiment around CBDCs. Multiple Republican presidential candidates have made opposition to a CBDC a part of their campaign. For example, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis said at a July event, If I am president, on day one we will nix central bank digital currency. Done. Dead. Not happening in this country. Outsider Democrat candidate Robert F. Kennedy has also been outspoken on the need to oppose the issuance of a CBDC. So given all that, if either of these bills progress to a vote in the House, they could be an opportunity to put members of Congress on record about their support for a CBDC coming into election season. Now, we could spend shows and shows and shows talking about why this seemingly small issue, at least to the rest of the world. Obviously, I'm not talking about for our audience and our community. But this issue, which is for all intents and purposes very small to most people, has become such a central piece of the opposition narrative heading into this election cycle. I think there are probably a few different elements of it. One, I think it feels to many like an extension of government power. And as we've seen and discussed, it is quite clear that how much power governments have is going to be a major issue. And of course, while that's coming from the Republican side of the House, it's also coming from Democrats. And this is perhaps not surprising. It's not surprising because we're still coming off the COVID period, which brought up major questions of how much authority the government has to be involved in people's lives. And so in many ways, this is an extension of that conversation. I think there is also a little bit of nervousness around technology in general. This is something that we've seen in crypto. It's certainly something that we see in AI as well. And while this is technology in the hands of the government, not technology in the hands of big tech companies, it still has that feeling of lots of data, lots of power, lots of information, big black holes, and not a clear way for citizens to exert influence when it comes to this important domain of their lives. Anyway, right now, there's no one who's really actively arguing for a CBDC, which could frankly be another reason why it's a nice political issue. It gets to stay a little bit, at least in the realm of metaphor for some of these larger topics, but it's still something that can be legislated upon with lower stakes than going after government power directly. Anyways, it's one we're going to keep an eye on to see just to what extent it continues to be an issue in elections or whether it's just part of this early narrative testing process at this very nascent point in the election cycle. Next up, we go halfway around the world to Hong Kong, where the Hong Kong Monetary Authority has issued a warning to crypto users that unregistered crypto firms could be presenting themselves as banks. The HKMA, which serves as the region's banking regulator, said that firms which use language associated with the banking industry could be in violation of recently implemented Hong Kong crypto regulations. The regulator said it had become aware of firms using terms including crypto bank and offering quote banking services. They even went so far as to call out firms that use the word deposits or promote their quote savings plans as low risk with high return. The HKMA said in a statement that quote, The regulator noted that these firms advertising themselves as crypto banks were not supervised by the HKMA and are not covered by the region's deposit protection scheme. Now, Hong Kong's crypto regulations coming into force in June was one of the big stories of this year. The rules were intended to permit retail crypto trading on regulated exchanges and they're being administered by the local securities agency rather than the banking regulator. Since then, only a small handful of firms have been granted licenses. This includes HashKey and OSL, who were licensed to provide retail trading exchanges, as well as Swiss -based crypto bank Ciba, which has received in principle approval to offer over -the -counter derivatives trading and asset management services. Now, enforcement of Hong Kong's crypto regulations has also begun in earnest. Last Wednesday, the securities regulator issued a warning against Dubai -based crypto exchange J -PEX. They alleged the firm had been promoting its products and services in Hong Kong without applying for a license. A press release from the securities regulator included allegations that J -PEX were advertising their services using the prohibited terms deposits, savings or earnings. They noted that many J -PEX products had quote, The regulator also accused influencers and local OTC desks of making false and misleading statements on social media that J -PEX had applied for licensing. Following the warning, J -PEX employees seemingly disappeared from their booth at the Token 2049 conference in Singapore, where they were a platinum sponsor. And on Sunday, the exchange ramped up withdrawal fees to $999 and also implemented $1 ,000 withdrawal limits, essentially being a withdrawal halt. Now, J -PEX addressed this on Sunday, blaming quote unfair treatment by relevant institutions in Hong Kong towards J -PEX. They said that quote, J -PEX said they were currently negotiating with these market makers to resolve liquidity issues. The exchange promised to quote, They claim that emergency withdrawals are still being dealt with manually and also announced that trading on their earned trading platform would be halted on Monday. Now, adding something to the story, on Monday, the South China Morning Post reported that local police had received at least 83 complaints about J -PEX involving assets worth around $4 .3 million. They say the securities regulator had escalated investigations to the Commercial Crime Bureau on suspicions of fraud. Follow -up reporting said that lawyer turned crypto influencer Joseph Lamb -Chalk had been arrested on Monday in connection to promotion of the exchange. Sources also said an office building had been raided on Monday morning. Now, there's a lot that's actually really worth watching here. Hong Kong creating this licensing regime is not just relevant for citizens of Hong Kong, although it certainly is for them. This has been seen, rightly so, as a marker of slightly shifting Chinese attitudes towards crypto in general. When these rules were first announced as forthcoming at the end of last year, it was widely anticipated that it would include a retail trading ban. Remember, crypto trading has been banned in China for the last few years. However, in the wake of FTX, and in particular the US's aggressive response to it, it appeared that the Chinese authorities might be reconsidering their position and in so doing using Hong Kong as a vehicle for testing the waters on the market without changing any policy in mainland China. In that light, I don't know exactly what this enforcement action around J -PEX actually signals. Arresting an influencer certainly sends a signal, but to what the ends of that signal are, I'm just not sure. I do think, however, it's probably worth weighting this issue as a little bit more significant than just a regional crackdown, as it may have bigger implications given the unique role Hong Kong plays relative to China when it comes to crypto. Next up, we move back to bankruptcy proceedings in the US where Gemini have slammed the proposed settlement between DCG and their subsidiary, Genesis, calling it misleading at best in a court filing on Friday. Now you'll remember that earlier last week, DCG had filed a proposed deal which would settle approximately $630 million in outstanding loan payments to Genesis. DCG said the deal could result in 90 % recoveries for unsecured creditors and recoveries as high as 95 % to 110 % for Gemini Earn customers who form the largest creditor entity in the Genesis bankruptcy. Gemini said in their court filing, however, that, quote, DCG touts proposed recovery rates that are a total mirage, misleading at best and deceptive at worst. Make no mistake, Gemini lenders will not actually receive anything close in real value terms to the proposed recovery rates under the current agreement in principle, end quote. DCG had proposed a repayment schedule for $1 .65 billion in total loans over seven years. Although the agreement had a substantial payment in the first year, criticism of the deal noted that recovery calculations were contingent on crypto -denominated payments becoming more valuable over time. I think the numbers were something like Bitcoin going to $85 ,000 and ETH going to $8 ,500. Gemini customers are owed around $1 .1 billion and it appears that taking on long -term risks associated with crypto prices and the continued solvency of DCG are simply not acceptable to them. Gemini said in their filing, quote, receiving a fractional share of interest in principal payments over seven years from an incredibly risky counterparty is not even remotely equivalent to receiving the actual cash and digital assets owed today by Genesis to the Gemini lenders. They added that, quote, DCG's proposal is markedly parallel to an attempt to satisfy its significant obligations through the issuance of IOUs instead of paying any real cash and digital assets. Gemini lawyers also slammed DCG's negotiation tactics, claiming they had made efforts to suggest that they would become desperate enough to take a significant haircut just to move on. On their creditors update blog, Gemini put it even more pointedly, stating that, quote, DCG is gaslighting creditors and testing earned users' resolve by baiting them with false promises of high recoveries. Now, hanging over the current state of the Genesis bankruptcy is the firm's right to exclusively propose recovery plans. The judge had granted a 30 -day extension to the exclusivity period through to early next month. That order was contested by Gemini and ended up falling short of the 60 -day extension requested by Genesis. After the exclusivity period has elapsed, creditors will be able to organize their own proposed deal to bring the bankruptcy to a close. Finally, separately on Friday, Gemini updated their lawsuit against DCG and CEO Barry Silbert. They now include four direct allegations that intercompany loans between DCG and Genesis were designed to, quote, make the market believe it had actually fixed Genesis's cratering financial condition. So there you have it. There are a number of other things that happened over the weekend or around the end of last week that we may touch on in conversations later. Mark Cuban got fished for almost a million bucks, for example. The New York Times leaked parts of a 15 ,000 -word Sam Bankman -Fried ramble that amounts to a very self -pitying reflection on the state of affairs. And Google's head of Web3 is begging the industry to build something actually useful. For now, though, we are going to wrap it there. We're going to get to the hard work of building back this industry from the ground up. I appreciate you hanging out here with me as we go about that work. So until next time, be safe and take care of each other. Peace.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"kashkari" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Kashkari and Rafael Bostik was slightly differing views on whether the fed needs to hike again to western is global had of acid allocation. I'd be HF asset management. It's interesting how the fed is becoming more split between bostick, who would vote for a hold right now, but I listened to Paul Tudor Jones, he's got skin in the game. He says the fed should declare victory on inflation now. Would you agree? Should they declare victory and pause? Good morning minutes. I actually would agree and subscribe to that view that they should pause and see how things really devolve. I mean, you can see that there are already cracks in the system and that the economy is slowly fading, although it's quite resilient for now. And so I think from the inflation side, there will be a cyclical downturn coming soon. And so this should give the fed some relief going forward. I was drawn to the line. I mean, we're dealing with the debt ceiling prevarication procrastination, whatever word you would like to have. But the ultimate compromise in your view will be a drag on the economy. Would it be a serious drag on the economy? I look at the empire manufacturing data. That's what the market got hung up on yesterday. That dropped the most since April 2020. What is the risk from a debt ceiling fix that it materially impacts the economy? Tell me, yes, it is the data, the employment manufacturing is quite volatile series, so I wouldn't give too much on that, but you're right. The economy is slowly fading. And Last. minute deal, what certainly had to the economic strengths we already are having. And what also add to volatility and security. I want to be something like 2011. So something which is a bigger issue, but we have to keep in mind 2011 was already amplified by the European debt crisis. So to also play a role at that time. Now, your currently very slightly underweight risk. The China day that we have had this morning, certainly puts into question the velocity of the recovery in China from retail sales to fix assets investment, both all three components, but those two underwhelming perhaps by the most. You are longer of emerging market and China relative to the U.S.. Is that predicated on reopening and rate cuts? It is actually on the one hand we are new beforehand that the reopening rebound is mainly focused on private consumption and services, not so much on the manufacturing sector. And if history is any judge for a Corona reopening in the Western countries, and I think the rebound is going to take another one to two quarters. And that given the fact that Chinese equities are quite de rated now and give them the fact that they might do a little bit on the stimulus front. I think there is still a little bit of leeway for Chinese equities to catch up. And for a much. And what is it that draws you on the emerging markets, again, there is this mighty view emerging market bonds have done really quite well. And the bets are mining that you're going to see a series of rate cuts in emerging markets. So who's going to go first and what's kind of size of cuts? Do you expect in 2023? Are we going to see significant cuts in EM in 2023 or is it a 2024 trade? But I stack up now. I think this is something which you already can play if this is really going to happen already in 23 is an open question. But the market is trying to anticipate such a move. So I think there is still leeway and it's still something something to play. And on duration, I was drawn to your view that you want to be long at certain proxies in the Eurozone on the slightly longer end. So talk me through that narrative. Is that based on the view that what the ECB might be at or near the end of its hiking cycle? Yes, I think they are probably at risk to over tighten if they go all the way to three 75 or in 4%. And on the economic front you see that there already cracks, for example, German factory orders really slumped by 10% in March and it has been production and the use was quite weak. So I think there is a good reason to start going slightly along duration if ECB is really making a pause. It's too early. Now so I would go for proxies like 30 ten, steepen in the Eurozone, but I think the time is coming. Okay, going to thank you so much. Some smart on the money calls they're going to western. Global head of asset allocation at odo BF management, my gas
Bloomberg Radio New York
"kashkari" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Your Bloomberg world sports update done. Danny, thank you, well, a lot more fed speak today, the takeaway, I think, was pretty simple. The destination point now for the fed funds rate is going to be above earlier predictions if you take fed officials at their word. Let's take a closer look now at with Bloomberg's Anna Wong, our chief U.S. economist who joins from Washington. And we heard from fed shared Jay Powell today as well as the head of the Minneapolis fed Neil kashkari and kashkari is now predicting that fed funds will peak somewhere around 5.4%. As I remember, you were one of the first to say that fed funds could peak somewhere around 5% and people at the time thought, wow, 5%. That's unusually high given the circumstances. You proved to be right. Do you have a new forecast? Well, so our forecast has maintained a 5% of the peak months rate. But I do think that the risk of it being higher is definitely has definitely increased. But I also think that regarding the fed speak of neo cash card, he has, he has been one of the most selfish and I'm not selfish. Sorry, hawkish. Fed officials for in the past 6 months now. In fact, he has maintained that 5.5% being the peak fed funds. So I think altogether, I don't think that either cash carry bostick overpower himself had revised up their terminal rate from where they were before the jobs report last Friday. Well, Anna, good morning, and thanks for being with us. Let's take a look at one reason why they were sounding so hawkish yesterday and that of course is the U.S. jobs report from last Friday. I mean, I hate to join the ranks of the party poopers here, but you've been at the forefront of telling about the seasonal quirks in this report. I mean, do you think people are getting that message enough? I mean, it seems like you're kind of in the minority right now on that point. Yeah, yeah, yeah. So, you know, it's a very complicated report. It's very confusing, but I do think that Powell's interview today did confirmed in my mind that the fed staff were also not taking too much signal from the strong jobs report. If you look at the details of what fed fed president bostick also said, he also said they need to look deeper into this report. If things continue, then they will have to revise up the terminal rate estimate, but as of now, given this report that we have neither boss ignore Powell had revised up their terminal rate. So if this employment report, the one that we had last Friday is a bit of an anomaly, and there are complexities here that have to be unpacked. Is it possible that there is an abrupt turn when it comes to non farm payroll creation? We've already seen a number of job cuts coming from information technology. And for those, including the swaps market, indicating that maybe we see rate cuts rate cuts by the end of the year, is that misguided, or is that still a possibility? I think I definitely think it's still a possibility. So I do not take any signal at all from the 3.4% unemployment rate of telling us that a soft landing is the most likely likelihood. In fact, if anything, a very low unemployment rate would increase the possibility that there will be a recession 12 months from now. So if you look at 1969, the last time when the unemployment rate was this low at 3.4%, 12 months later, it was already at 4.8%. So if you keep looking at history over the last 50 years or more, whenever unemployment rate hits this low, very soon everything is turned. Also about labor hoarding. So one potential explanation for this strong labor report last Friday was affirms a hoarding labors, right? I also don't think the hoarding of labor is sustainable in the U.S. economy. So the reason why firms are holding on to the labor right now is I think they're still holding hope that there would be a soft landing or the recession would be shallow and that's why you want to hold on to the workers. So that actually happens in all the recessions before 2008. It's a commonality across historical recessions that firms tend to hoard labor in the initial stage of a downturn with things are uncertain. But as things worsen, then they will start letting go. Workers. Yeah, I think we've seen somewhere in the vicinity of just under 70,000 information tech workers, let's go since the beginning of the year. I think on the other side of that, services was very hard hit during the pandemic and one of the things that I would point on and we don't have time
Bloomberg Radio New York
"kashkari" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"The continuing lesson is that one needs to be careful to complete a full prescription of antibiotics rather than to stop too soon because that raises the risk of recurrence. That's certainly true with respect to inflation and we saw that in the mid 1970s when inflation, which had spiked in the early 70s, came way back down, but then it started to go right back up with fed easing even before the oil shocks of the late 1970s. So Larry, as you suggest, we got some glimpse into the thinking of the fed this week. By things like mister kashkari, what he had to say, we had other fed people saying, we really should stay up at 5 or above 5, even 5.4% for some time. We also got the minutes of the last meeting out. Were you encouraged by the fact that at least apparently some of the members of the former really really struggling with the fact that the markets remain, the conditions, financial conditions remain pretty loose despite everything the fed's been telling us. Look, good. David, I've been speaking in a different way about the fed and the last couple of months that I had been before and that's because for whatever reason, they have come around to views quite close to mine. They think inflation is the primary concern. They explicitly recognize that there's going to need to be increases in unemployment to contain inflation. They recognize the say of labor market developments as a kind of super core measure of inflation. They're showing awareness of the fact that the neutral interest rate is a real interest rate concept rather than a nominal interest rate concept. They're recognizing that the tradeoff is not between unemployment and inflation, but between unemployment and the level of entrenched in inflation. These are the kinds of points that I've been stressing on your show. For the past 18 months and I think I'm gratified to see that they now are increasingly representing orthodoxy. I think it's interesting that the fed is indicating a commitment to tighter policies, more focus on resisting inflation than the market is expecting. They will carry through a lot. I think I would be closer to the fact at this point in terms of judging what will happen. Then I would be to the market. And finally, Larry, you brought chat GBT to Wall Street week this year and in the year of 2022. Is that going to be a major factor going forward? And broader that AI and by the way, quantum computing. I think it's all
Bloomberg Radio New York
"kashkari" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"And the continuing lesson is that one needs to be careful to complete a full prescription of antibiotics rather than to stop too soon because that raises the risk of recurrence and that's certainly true with respect to inflation and we saw that in the mid 1970s when inflation which had spiked in the early 70s came way back down, but then it started to go right back up with fed easing even before the oil shocks of the late 1970s. So Larry, as you suggest, we got some glimpse into the thinking of the fed this week by things like mister kashkari when he had to say we had other fed people saying we really should stay up at 5 or above 5, even 5.4% for some time. We also got the minutes of the last meeting out. Were you encouraged by the fact that at least apparently some of the members of the former really really struggling with the fact that the markets remain, the conditions, the financial conditions remain pretty loose despite everything the fed's been telling us. Look good. David, I've been speaking in a different way about the fed and the last couple of months that I had been before and that's because for whatever reason, they have come around to views quite close to mine. They think inflation is the primary concern. They explicitly recognize that there's going to need to be increases in unemployment to contain inflation. They recognize the say of labor market developments as a kind of super core measure of inflation. They're showing awareness of the fact that the neutral interest rate is a real interest rate concept rather than a nominal interest rate concept. Their recognizing that the tradeoff is not between unemployment and inflation, but between unemployment and the level of entrenched in inflation. These are the kinds of points that I've been stressing on your show for the past. 18 months. And I think I'm gratified to see that they now are increasingly representing orthodoxy. I think it's interesting that the fed is indicating a commitment to tighter policies, more focus on resisting inflation than the market is expecting. They will carry through a lot. I think I would be closer to the fed at this point in terms of judging what will happen. Then I would be to the market. And finally, Larry, you brought chat GBT to Wall Street week this year and the year of 2022. Is that going to be a major factor going forward? And broader than AI and by the way, quantum computing. I think it's all
Bloomberg Radio New York
"kashkari" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"They are going to be some losses and they're going to be some failures around the global economy as we transition to a higher interest rate environment. And that's the nature of capitalism. And Minneapolis, fed president Neel kashkari, says the Central Bank is quite a ways away from pausing rate hikes. Likewise, Karen fed governor Christopher Waller emphasized the need to bring down inflation. I believe we have tools in place to address any financial stability concerns. And we should not be looking to monetary policy for this purpose. The focus of monetary policy needs to be on one thing, fighting inflation. Governor Chris Waller says the fed needs to continue to raise interest rates into next year. We also heard hawkish remarks from Cleveland fed chief Florida, fed governor Lisa cook and Chicago's Charles Evans. While taking a look at markets now, Nathan, U.S. stock index futures are lower following those comments. Plus weaker earnings from chip makers Jessica Bieber is portfolio manager with easterly investment partners. Interest rates have really been a dominant story since mid August. And it's created some panic and equity markets as around housing, M and a financing, rolling debt. I think people are really worried about kind of how those rates are going to affect individual companies. And just a beamer with easterly investment partners says we're only starting to get hints of the full impact of rate hikes. One of those hints could come today, Karen in the September jobs report due at 8 30 a.m. Wall Street time stick with us for live coverage all morning plus conversation with U.S. labor secretary Marty Walsh live in the 9 a.m. hour on Bloomberg radio and television. And we have an update on Elon Musk and Twitter this morning in Delaware judge has halted the mid October court case against Musk to allow his deal to buy Twitter to close. And we have three winners of this year's Nobel Peace Prize Karen alas be a lot ski from Belarus a Russian human rights organization memorial and the Ukrainian rights group center for civil liberties have all won the Nobel Peace
Bloomberg Radio New York
"kashkari" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Million people are under evacuation orders. This has been a special report. I'm Brian shook. And I'm Brian Curtis in Hong Kong. Let's get you caught up on this hour's top business stories and the markets. Apple is said to be backing off plans to increase production of its iPhones this year. The reason is the surge in demand that was expected has failed to materialize. Sources say that Apple has told suppliers to pull back from the efforts to increase supply instead. The company will stick with producing some 90 million handsets for the period that's roughly the same as last year. More fed officials say they need to keep hiking interest rates to restore price stability. Chicago fed chief Charles Evans and Neil kashkari of Minneapolis said that the fed should deliver on the rate increases that they forecast. Kashkari told The Wall Street Journal that the current pace of interest rate increases is appropriate. We are moving very, very aggressively. There's a lot of tightening in the pipeline. We are committed to restoring price stability, but we're also we also recognize given these lags, there is the risk of overdoing it. Kashkari said the fed should keep tightening until it sees compelling evidence from core inflation that it is falling, and then the fed can be patient. China is facing increasing risks from deflation and according to the latest report from the China beige book. It comes as demand crumbles under the weight of an ongoing property prices and that the economy is being threatened by continued COVID restrictions. Let's check the markets, the Hanks and indexes down 2.8%. The nikkei has tumbled 2.4% very much a risk off session
Bloomberg Radio New York
"kashkari" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Now understand the seriousness of our commitment to getting inflation back to 2%. Those were kashkari's words, joining us now is Janet muy head of market analysis at brewin dolphin. Do you see more stocks decline coming more volatility as if markets are now getting the message as kashkari says? Hi, good morning, Caroline. Thanks for having me. Yeah, absolutely. In the short term, we are bound to see more volatility on the downside probably because we have such a strong summer rally based on the notion that the fact will pivot or even cut interest rates somewhat next year, but that is completely dismissed now. So that's why we will likely see some reversal of that strong summer valley and then the markets will more focused on the economic side of things, which is likely to weaken globally as corporate earnings, which so far I think quarter is okay, but we will we will see we can earn is going forward. So I think markets will be very focused on these and recession risks in the UK U.S. so that's why we do see markets going back down in the short term. So that's the outlook for fed rates later, but what about in September markets are putting odds of a 75 basis point hike even higher now? Yeah, yeah. So it's very clear that interest rates will remain elevated for a while and outside rate hike ashfield going to have perm, whether you're talking about the U.S. or UK or in your area. It's going up globally. So these kind of tightening and financial conditions is not grateful operas or corporate earnings. So we think that the market will be more focused on that. We don't think that it's actually reflected in a lot of these earnings forecast yet. So we'll earnings will be downgraded in I think in the coming months or so. So that's why we do think that markets will have more downside than upside from there. And I do think that these high interest rates will take time to work through in the economy. We may not see in the data yet, but for sure, we think that the U.S. is very likely to head into a recession sometime next year. Okay. In that case, how does Europe deal with the energy crisis, the recession risks here even greater? Yeah, absolutely. I think there is other high convection that Europe is going into recession, much higher conviction than the U.S.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"kashkari" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Entering in homes, we were blessed that that came below projections. There will be a meeting Tuesday to determine the next steps after the Artemis one rocket launch was scrubbed today. It comes as the next launch window won't open before Friday. However, mission manager, Mike serif, and refused to take a guess on whether the launch could happen then. I'm Brian shook. And I'm Brian Curtis in Hong Kong. Let's get you caught up on this hour's top business stories and the markets. Minneapolis fed president Neil kashkari says he's happy to see the recent equity losses. He said it shows that investors understand that the fed is serious about tackling inflation. Kashkari told the odd lots podcast, there is a risk that the fed might end up behind the curve on the way down, it's still a risk that the Central Bank should be willing to take. American firms confidence in China has fallen to a record low. A survey from the U.S. business council said that it's due to COVID related lockdowns and geopolitical tensions. The sour outlook comes as companies struggle to retain staff in China and have faced increased business compliance costs. Pinduoduo has reported revenue of about four and a half $1 billion for the second quarter. That's up 36% from a year earlier. Net income more than tripled in that time, signaling a rebound in consumer demand. Is now hoping to enter the North American market. Here's Bloomberg Stephen engel. It's going to be its first cross border ventures, so there's a lot at stake for this company, but again, HSBC raising PDD to a buy rating with a price target of 93. That's a 41% upside premium to today's close. As I said in the last 6 sessions, it was also up 44%. So this is a good picture for the tech space. Oil is near the highest level since late July, potential production outages in Libya could exacerbate a global energy crunch. Right now, WTI is trading at 96 73 a barrel. The Hangzhou index is down 1.8% in EK is tracking up about one full percentage point, the ASX 200 in Sydney, up about a half of 1%. Global news, 24 hours a day, live, and a Bloomberg quick take. Brought to you by 2700 journalists and analysts in a 120 countries. In Hong Kong, I'm Brian Curtis. This is Bloomberg
Bloomberg Radio New York
"kashkari" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"And Brian, we're seeing a little bit more positivity in markets than what we were witnessing this time yesterday. It is a little surprising, and we have Thomas talk coming up in a few moments. We can put it to him. Is this complacency or is it patients being expressed by investors or are they just not that concerned about higher interest rates and what that means for currency differences? Because we've had a lot of weakness in local currencies and a lot of strength in the dollar. Generally speaking, that has been bad for risk assets, but at least today we're sort of meandering along. The ASX 200 up over 7000 with gain of a little more than half of 1% and EK has rallied about 6 tenths of a percent, been higher in New Zealand all morning, also by around about 6 tenths of a percent. And a couple of markets had just opened up are a little bit more cautious. The Thai X in Taiwan is essentially flat here. And the straights times index in Singapore has expanded about two tenths of 1%. And if you're leaving a composition, it seemingly spread across most of the sectors looking at the nikkei almost all the sectors in that range of half a percent to about 7 tenths of 1%. The Bloomberg dollar spot a little bit weaker. Dalyan, one 38 55 we were at one 39 yesterday, and the Euro is at parity with the dollar at 1.0002 and we're seeing the yield on the ten year treasury now 3.09%. So we had J pal pushing back against market hopes for a pivot. They're scaling that at least today. That was the latest setback. We have the fed also reducing its balance sheet, starts getting underway in September in a more aggressive fashion and the other risks China's economic slowdown, Europe's energy crisis, the war in Ukraine. It's all out there, jewels. It's all out there. All right. And let's get to what Minneapolis fed president Neal kashkari also said, Brian, because he sees the recent sell off as evidence that the market is taking the Central Bank's inflation fight seriously. He spoke in an interview with Bloomberg's odd lots podcast. I certainly was not excited to see the stock market rallying after our last federal open market committee meeting because I know how committed we all are to getting inflation down. And I somehow think the markets were misunderstanding that. And I was actually happy to see how chair Powell's Jackson hole speech was received. You know, people now understand the seriousness of our commitment to getting inflation back down to 2%. Kashkari also said that while there's a risk the fed might also end up behind the curve on the way down, it is a risk the Central Bank should be willing to take. Meantime, the European Union said that it's preparing to intervene in the energy market. That has electricity prices in Europe have soared almost tenfold in one year. Here's EU commission president Ursula of underlying. The skyrocketing electricity prices are now exposing for different reasons. The limitations of our current electricity market design. It was developed for completely different under completely different circumstances and completely different purposes. It is no more fit for purpose. Von der leyen added that an instrument will be developed that will ensure the price of gas will no longer dominate the electricity price. The exact makeup of the EU intervention plan is still being developed. EU diplomats said that the commission could offer a detailed proposal as soon as this week. In the meantime, White House aide John Kirby said that the U.S. is concerned about the energy shortages in Europe and will work to alleviate that potential threat. Well, coming up, as you say, we're going to talk to Thomas head of apec iShares investment strategy at BlackRock, but now it's 5 minutes past the time for global
Bloomberg Radio New York
"kashkari" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Markets, the Bloomberg dollar index currently up a tenth of a percent, pressure on the single currency here at Europe and the Euro currently trading against the U.S. dollar down two tenths of a percent at 99 at 47 below parity, the pound is one 18 down a tenth of a percent, and the U.S. ten year benchmark holding up above 3% on that yield. The two year currently at three 30 and in commodities Brent training at a $100 a $101 a barrel, that's up a little over 1% at WTI as at $94 a barrel and Bitcoin trading at 21,317 Caroline. At the markets, let's bring you our top stories. Minneapolis fed president Neil kashkari says that action from the Central Bank is still very much needed in the fight against inflation. The U.S. Central Bank has been raising interest rates at a rapid pace this year in a bid to bring down inflation which is near the highest level in four decades. Kashkari's warning comes after fresh data showed U.S. business activity contracting for a second straight month in August. Meanwhile, in the UK, Liz trusts, the favorite to become the next prime minister has confirmed that she would hold a fiscal event in her first weeks in office, speaking at a Conservative Party meeting, trust hinted at targeted cost of living support for pensioners, her campaign has signaled that she would not wait for the usual independent budget estimates before delivering action on soaring energy bills, the result of the leadership contest will be announced on the 5th of September. And finally, almost half of the European Union is under drought conditions with the weather set to remain hotter and drier until November, as well as affecting vegetation and crops, the European drought observatory reports that severe impact are expected on the energy sector, particularly hydropower and the cooling systems of other power plants. Global news 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg quicktake powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than a 120 countries. I'm Caroline Hepburn, this is Bloomberg Bloomberg opinion in full perspectives and experts data driven commentary on breaking news. It is 9 20 in
Bloomberg Radio New York
"kashkari" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"High the fed is going to go and how long it's going to maintain the eventually restrictive monetary settings that it is aiming to get to. Garfield, what should we be reading into the bond market reaction to this? We're still talking about a more than 40 basis point spread between two and ten years as that remains inverted. What does that tell us about how the markets are interpreting the inflation numbers? Well, it tells us that the markets are still more certain than anything else that a recession is extremely likely or at the very least a severe economic slowdown that fits with the commentary from Neil kashkari and Charles Evans, the two fit speakers who are overnight who are sticking with a hawkish tone. We had a very, very big move in yields in particular at the short end immediately after the CPI release, but those came back. So that's the clearest thing that we're on watch for a severe slowdown and that a big part of that slowdown is going to be the fed keeps raising rates higher. The other concern that you have to have is that yields look too low considering what the fed is promising that it's going to do. If it wants restrictive cash rates, it's hard to see two year yields in particular staying as low as they are even now at 3.2%. And it's also difficult to see ten year yields going too much lower from 2.8% and even a potential take climate again to 3% once that battle is over. Garfield's Reynolds Bloomberg's chief rates correspondent thanks very much for joining us. This is Bloomberg
Bloomberg Radio New York
"kashkari" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"A tenth of a percent on the Bloomberg dollar spot index. We did have the biggest drop yesterday since the start of the pandemic for the dollar. Bread crude $97, 35 per barrel erasing earlier losses trading flat right now. Gold $1786 per Troy ounce. That's your Bloomberg business flash now let's get more on the top news headlines for that we go to Leigh Anne garon's morning Julianne. Good morning to you and thank you. Minneapolis fed president Neil kashkari and his Chicago counterpart choles Evans responded to softening inflation data by saying it does not change the Central Bank's path towards even higher interest rates through 2023 in a panel discussion kashkari said he wants the fed's benchmark rate at 4.4% by the end of next year and at a separate event, Evans agreed saying inflation is unacceptably high. Staying in the U.S. Donald Trump has declined to answer questions from New York's attorney general in an investigation into potentially fraudulent asset valuations. That lawyers were probing if his organization manipulated asset valuations to secure bank loans and also insurance, the former president repeatedly invoked his Fifth Amendment right against self incrimination, the deposition comes just two days after the FBI searched Trump's home in Florida. And Samsung has unveiled the latest generation of its foldable devices, the new galaxy Z fold four and the Z flip for the fold phone has a 45% more durable display
Bloomberg Radio New York
"kashkari" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"IBKR dot com slash GA straight to Bloomberg's Doug Krishna. Good day for stock Serb, but at the same time they're fixed income markets, bonds ending up pretty much where they were before. Yeah, it was kind of an interesting day in treasury market. I can talk more about that in a moment, rich, but I think it's fair to say it was all about this report on July, consumer prices, both the core and overall CPI readings were below forecast. Yeah, mainly because of lower energy cost. And that helped to fuel bets on a fed pivot away from aggressive tightening to a smaller pace of those rate hikes, but to be fair, I think the bears took the CPI data with a grain of salt. They said, you know, the fed is a long way from its goal. 8 and a half percent inflation rate. Well, that's piping hot. Overall food prices were up 10.9% from last year. By the way, that's the biggest increase we've seen since 1979. And remember, we have heard from fed officials, they want to see months of evidence of cooling, especially in that core gauge. We're going to take a closer look at federal action momentarily here on daybreak, Asia. Now, in terms of equity market, price action, we had a rally across the board, although it may have been that some of these moves reflect a small amount of short covering. We had the Dow picking up 1.6% the S&P today hired by 2.1% NASDAQ comp jumping 2.9%. The NASDAQ composite is now up 20% from that June low, so can we say the bear market in the NASDAQ is over, or was this simply a one day wonder? Yields, let's look at the two year at one point we were down nearly 20 basis points to three spot zero 7 where at three 21 now as we get set for trading in Tokyo, the dollar down into big way, the yen rallies and crude oil week will talk more about markets in about 15 minutes Brian. All right, thank you very much. Doug, let's get to that fed action. And what they're saying about it, and the U.S. inflation decelerating in July by more than expected. It's prompted investors to scale back bets that fed officials would opt for another 75 basis point hike in September. Minneapolis fed president Neal kashkari was out. He said that even though the CPI data was softer, it will not change the fed's rate hike path. The idea that we are going to start cutting rates early next year when inflation is very likely going to be well well well in excess of our target. I just think it's not realistic. I think much more likely scenario is we will raise rates to some point and then we will sit there until we get convinced that inflation is well on its way back down to 2% before I would think about easing back on interest rates. Kashkari said he wants the fed benchmark interest rate at 3.9% by the end of this year and then at 4.4% by the end of 2023. In the meantime, Chicago fed president Charles Evans welcomed today's inflation report, but he said that inflation remains unacceptably high. Evans also said that he expects the fed will be hiking rates the rest of this year and into next year to get back to its 2% objective. All right, having a look at Disney out with fiscal third quarter sales in earnings that were analysts expectations beats, sales in the quarter jumping 26% to 21 and a half $1 billion, results driven in part by the strong performance of its theme parks the company audio also adding some 14.4 million new subscribers to its Disney+ service. Again, that was the head of the thinking by analyst Disney+ now has just over a 152 million subscribers while its competitor Netflix had 220.7 million subscribers, Disney also saying that it's raising the price of its streaming service by 38%. That's all to generate more revenue for its money losing online businesses. Bloomberg's Lucas Shaw. It's raising prices across the board for all of its services. And it feels like it's now established itself enough with the customers that are able to do that. That should boost arpu that should be as profitability. And the real question is whether that will put a drag on subscriber growth going forward. On December 8th, Disney will introduce an ad supported version of its streaming service, current Disney+ subscribers would begin seeing this version unless they agree to pay more for the commercial free plan. So what does all of this tell us about the economy will coming up in a few moments as Carl tannenbaum executive vice president and chief economist at Northern Trust. But now it's time for global news
Bloomberg Radio New York
"kashkari" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"This is Bloomberg daybreak, Europe. How exactly will it be? Will it be a slowing down? Will it be a technical recession for basically gravitating towards zero? The reason a risk of a recession in Europe in all our assessment mostly leading to the developments of the war. We do see significant slowdown in growth that's to be expected given how rapidly the economy grew. Bloomberg daybreak, Europe, on Bloomberg radio. Honda 7 30 a.m. here in London very good morning. I'm Caroline heppel. And I'm Stephen carrier listening to Bloomberg daybreak, Europe live from London. We check the markets for every 15 minutes here on Bloomberg radio Euro stocks 50 futures down two tenths of 1%. This hour, the MSCI Pacific index was up by two thirds of 1%, the hang seng now up by one tenth of 1% as well, looking head towards Wall Street S&P in many futures, down by four tenths of 1%, the Bloomberg dollar spot index is a tenth of 1% weaker this morning against the pound it's trading at one 21 79 on the bond markets the German ten year bond trading a basis point higher at zero spot 83, whereas the Italian ten year BTP is also up by a basis point at three spot zero two. So there's the markets. Let's go to our top stories this morning, HSBC has reported an adjusted pre-tax profit of $5.97 billion for the second quarter a big beat on estimates. The bank has vowed to restore its dividend to pre COVID outbreak levels as soon as possible. Here's what you and Stevenson, HSBC's chief financial officer, toppling back a little earlier. We've committed to pay half of that return out by way of dividend of 50% payout ratio. So I think mathematically, when you run that through, what you will see is a very material step up and dividends for next year. That was HSBC, CFO, U and Stevenson speaking to Bloomberg, the bank's UK division delivered a strong set of results for the institution adjusted profits of two and a half $1 billion, up 15% compared to the first half of last year, HSBC shares currently trading in Asia up 3.4%. The Federal Reserve is committed to bringing inflation down to 2%. That's according to Minneapolis fed president Neil kashkari, who says the bank is doing what's necessary to bring down demand. In an interview with CBS, the policymaker wouldn't rule out the possibility of the U.S. economy tipping into recession. We're going to do everything we can to try to avoid a recession, but we are committed to bringing inflation down and we are going to do what we need to do. And we are a long way away from achieving an economy that is back at 2% inflation. And that's where we need to get to. That was Federal Reserve bank of Minneapolis, president Neil kashkari speaking to CBS face the nation, kashkari does not vote on monetary policy this year. On Thursday, the Bank of England is expected to step up its fight against inflation, joining some 70 other institutions around the world and delivering a half point race arc in a bid to damp down price rises. Now Lufthansa may face further disruption after pilots voted for strikes if necessary to force a wage deal. The VC pilots union voted overwhelmingly in favor of walkouts, which could trigger more cancellations on top of the 7000 flights affected due to staffing shortages, a Lufthansa spokesperson said constructive discussions are underway to resolve the conflicts. And England have won a major football tournament for the first time in over 50 years with a two one extra time victory over Germany in the final of the women's Euros. Chloe Kelly came off the bench to score the winner in front of a crowd of Klaus to 90,000 at Wembley. Marina manager at Serena weaver says the tournament has had a widespread impact. I think this tournament has done so much for the game, but also for society and women in society in England, but also think across Europe and across the world. And I hope that will make a change too. That thing done women's team manager Serena vigman speaking there, she now has won back to back women's Euros titles, taking her first one with the Netherlands four years ago. Yeah, what a night amazing stuff while looking ahead a bit more in terms of football and what happens the day after the big victory. James woolcock is here in studio to tell us what to look ahead to today. Wow, Caroline Steven, as you know, when we get off to air at 10 a.m. the both of you might want to head down to Trafalgar Square, where you can get access to the UEFA women's Euros 2022 commemoration celebration where you'll see both vegan manager and the team gracing the stage for Q&A and lift the trophy. The problem if for those of you trying to watch it from home is that BT south are on strike for the second day. It's their
Bloomberg Radio New York
"kashkari" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"And here in Singapore, I'm Juliette Sully. And I'm Doug Krishna at the Bloomberg interactive broker studio in New York. We've got the China open now as well as the opening of the equity market in Hong Kong hang seng is down about 9 tenths of 1% right now, and on the mainland Chung high composite weaker by nearly a half of 1%. Brian Curtis will join us in a moment or two to give us the latest. Right now, a few of the sours top business stories, jewels. We'll have to hiking interest rates 75 basis points the fed is looking at what it needs to do next to bring down inflation. Minneapolis fed president Neel kashkari says the fit is committed to doing whatever is necessary. But she says the fed's 2% inflation target remains far off. Kashkari says faster cost of living increases of becoming more broad based and aren't limited to just a few categories. Here he is on CBS face the nation. I mean, typically we think about wage driven inflation, where wages grow quickly. And then that leads to higher prices in a self fulfilling spiral. That is not yet happening. High prices and wages are now trying to catch up to those high prices. Those high prices are being driven by supply chains and the war in Ukraine, among other factors. And so we need to get the economy back into balance before this really does become a wage driven inflation story. And that is Minneapolis fed president Neil kashkari who had earlier here on Bloomberg. He said the fed will do everything it can to avoid a recession, although he acknowledged the fed doesn't have a great record of being able to do so. Kashkari also said he doesn't expect the Democrats new bill on taxes climate and drugs to have much impact on inflation in the next couple of years. Well, Chinese banks are likely to face mortgage losses in a worst case scenario of around $350 billion, an estimate from S&P Global holdings reflects plunging confidence in China's property market, the combination of mortgage boycotts and slower growth of rattled authorities in Beijing, and it's triggered warnings of a broader systemic risk environment so far the result of the boycotts listed banks have a reported ¥2.1 billion that would equate to around 311 million U.S. dollars in delinquent mortgages and so far this month the hang sang index of mainland banks is down about 12%. I should say for the month of July, shouldn't I Julia? You should wear an August in the future. All right, investors expecting Elon Musk to sell more of his Tesla shares by the end of the year. That is based on a recent M live pulse survey. 1562 traders investors and analysts responded to it, and that's after a $44 billion takeover of Twitter was announced with Musk offloading 9.4 million Tesla shares in April. He's since backed out of a deal to buy the platform, 75% of the M live survey respondents now think Musk won't end up owning Twitter about a third of them think he'll settle with Twitter for more than a $1 billion. Now 68% think mosque will likely sell shares regardless of what happens with the Twitter deal and that could signal further pain for Tesla's stock, which is down about 16% this year. 33 past the hour Brian Curtis joins us from Hong Kong, he's looking at markets. There's so much to talk about. I don't know where you want to begin. Well, I guess the home crisis or the housing crisis in China is a good place. We just had some data to review China's top 100 developers seeing home sales slump further in July or did so the mortgage boycott crisis weighing further on confidence, as you mentioned, Doug, combined contract sales plunging 39.7% from a year earlier. That's according to data compiled by the China real estate information. And on top of that, China is considering a plan to seize undeveloped land from some of the distressed real estate companies and use it to help finance the completion of stalled projects. The factory activity we've talked about that a lot this morning in China unexpectedly contracting in July. So all of this is weighed on equity markets in the Asia Pacific and particularly on the Hong Kong and China markets. Right now the CSI 300 is down 9 tenths of a percent, the Hangzhou index is down 8 tenths of 1%. A few other markets are doing okay, the nikkei has advanced three tenths of a percent and right now the SX 200 in Australia is up about a third of 1%. Other markets that are trading in Taiwan, the tye X is down four tenths of a percent. We also see the straits times index marginally lower. Alibaba is trading now down another 4.6% after the losses we saw late last week in particular, the ADR is fell 11% in the U.S.. That's after the firm was added to a list of companies facing delisting in the United States for failing to provide access to audits. And also Jack Ma was pushed out of ant group last week that also helped push down shares. In terms of currencies, the Bloomberg dollar spot index is now weaker so that's a little bit of a change this morning down two tenths of a percent. The end has shown a lot of strength now Dolly on one 32 35. Bitcoin here down 1.6%, 23,419. Juliet to you. Thank you, Brian. 35 minutes pass the hour time for
Bloomberg Radio New York
"kashkari" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"30 here in Sydney. I'm Paul Allen. And I'm Doug Krishna at the Bloomberg interactive broker studio in New York. We'll get trading underway in Tokyo Sydney and Seoul at the top of the hour, not a lot of enthusiasm for risk assets. I'm looking at the E mini futures contracts now for the American market showing a little bit of weakness after quite the rally in the states on Friday. We have oil trending lower. And the dollar strong yeah, not by much, and a little bit of weakness coming through in the end, but boy, what a rally in the Japanese currency against the greenback in the states on Friday. Closer look at markets with Brian Curtis in a moment right now, a few of the sours top business stories. Coolest of fayette hiked interest rates, 75 basis points last week. What to do next? To bring down inflation, while Minneapolis fed president Neil kashkari says the fed is committed to doing whatever is necessary. But he says the fed's 2% inflation target remains far off. Kashkari says faster cost of living increases are becoming more broad based and aren't limited to just a few categories. Here he is on CBS face the nation. I mean, typically we think about wage driven inflation where wages grow quickly and then that leads to higher prices in a self fulfilling spiral. That is not yet happening. High prices and wages are now trying to catch up to those high prices. Those high prices are being driven by supply chains and the war in Ukraine, among other factors. And so we need to get the economy back into balance before this really does become a wage driven inflation story. That's Minneapolis fei president Neil kashkari hood here earlier on Bloomberg. He said the fed will do everything it can to avoid a recession, though he acknowledged the fed doesn't have a great record when it comes to being actually able to do so. He also said he doesn't expect the Democrats new bill on taxes, climate and drugs to have much impact on inflation over the next couple of years. Some equities are getting extra attention as the crisis on monkeypox worse since we have more from Bloomberg's Denise Pellegrini. The jynneos vaccine maker being most widely used in the U.S. as Denmark's Bavarian Nordic and that stock is up more than 30% already this year. Smallpox vaccine maker merchant and antiviral makers seek a technologies and chimeric are getting some extra attention as well. With column analyst Boris picker calling them, keep beneficiaries of the World Health Organization's calling monkeypox a global emergency. Japan's Meiji holdings, which produces a smallpox vaccine at medical tools supplier, precision system science could also see a jump in interest, plus there's a whole list of potential Chinese test kit makers, including orient gene BioTech and a sure tech that could also stand to benefit. Denise Pellegrini Bloomberg debris. A worker crisis has been averted at Boeing at least for a few days. The threatened strike on Monday by two and a half thousand machinists will not happen. The union instead going to extend talks through Wednesday. Last week Boeing workers rejected the latest offer, the union said its priorities were wages, strengthening 401k retirement plans and eliminating a two tier wage system. Separately, U.S. regulators approved Boeing's plan to inspect and repair tiny structural flaws and Boeing 7 8 7 dreamliners, resolving the union conflict and getting Dreamliner deliveries back online may ease pressure on Boeing shares, which have lost about 30% of their value over the past year. Coming up on 34 past the hour Brian Curtis is in Hong Kong looking at market action, so I said that there was a little bit of risk aversion happening. Would you agree with that? Well, certainly in the case of the Hong Kong and China markets, now you could have looked at the Politburo meeting from a week or so ago in two ways. One is they didn't roll out a lot of new stimulus. So some investors might have taken over drawn some confidence from that that these are the men and women who should know China's economy best. And if they say it's not necessary, well, you could take some confidence from that. But the market has done just the opposite. And so we saw a sell down last week. It was a rough end of the week, even though it was a pretty good week for stocks on Wall Street and in Europe. And then you get the factory activity over the weekend for July, the official PMI coming in with contraction at 49. So you would think that there'll be some downward selling pressure today, the future is always tell the story. The FTSE China a 50s are actually up a tenth of a percent hang seng index futures are down three tenths of a percent. Alibaba's ADRs fell 11% in New York on Friday. That was a very big price adjustment. That's after the firm was added to a list of companies that would face U.S. delisting for failing to provide access to audits, and also let's not forget Jack Ma was pushed out of ant group. That sent a negative signal as well. On the regulatory front. So the goal in the NASDAQ golden dragon China index was down 3.1% and we're expecting to see a little bit more selling today. Also, the U.S. is tightening restrictions on China's access to chip making gear. That's according to a couple of suppliers. It's an increase in U.S. efforts to curb Beijing's economic ambitions. Before the U.S. banned the sale of gear that could fabricate ships of ten nanometers or better, that was banned to China's semiconductor manufacturing international. If they didn't have a license, now lamb research says the U.S. has expanded that to 14 nanometers. The moratorium likely extends beyond Smith. So expect as mentioned a little bit of negativity there. It only in one 33 50, so we've seen a lot of strength in the end of late. We had weakness last week in the dollar, but then today it strengthening a little up about a tenth of a percent. Paul, to you. All right, thanks very much, Brian. 35 minutes, 36 minutes past the hour now, time for a chick of global news. And U.S. House speaker Nancy Pelosi's Asia trip is underway with the potential Taiwan visit still a mystery. It begs to stop
Meet the Press
Fed’s Kashkari Warns Delta Variant Could Slow Jobs Recovery
"Result, covid numbers in the tri state area continue to rise hospitalization so much lower than during the pandemic Peek at much lower than in some states like Florida. Even so, as we've been reporting watch for details from Mayor de Blasio tomorrow on mass guidelines. The attempts to try to slow the spread in the tri state area, the delta variant getting the attention of the Fed. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari says this could keep some Americans from rejoining the labour market. People are nervous about the Delta area. That could slow some of that labor market recovery and therefore be dragon economic recovery, So the sooner we can get people vaccinated. The sooner we can get Delta under control, the better off our economy
Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia
Minneapolis Fed chief Neel Kashkari warns of "grinding, very slow recovery" without more federal aid
"In the meantime, Fed officials are warning of risks without sufficient government aid coming. Minneapolis Fed Bank President Neel Kashkari told CBS that the recovery has flattened out and lawmakers need to do more. We're going to continue to see a grinding very slow recovery, with thousands of small businesses around the country going bankrupt. That's why it's so vital that our elected leaders come together to take more action. You know the job market today, 11 Million Americans are still out of work relative of the job market in February. That is as bad as the worst job market during the great recession in the great financial crisis, and so AH, lot of people are suffering. A lot of small businesses are suffering more assistance is definitely needed. Kashkari also said that as the virus cases mounted in the United States, more government support will be needed to make up for consumers pulling back. Well,
The Peter Schiff Show Podcast
Fed Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged
"It's been a rough ride for US stock indexes since the Fed's announcement on Wednesday that it had decided to leave interest rates unchanged, and of course, it was followed up by a Powell press conference. In the last three days, the Nasdaq composite is down by just under four and a half percent s and p five, hundred down almost two and a half percent Dow Jones holding up better down about one percent clearly. What was weighing down the SNP and not so much. The Dow are the tech stocks. They're really dominant in the NASDAQ. That's why it's down the most what people are blaming the sell off on is the fact that the Fed was not dovish enough if you can believe that first of all, what are those statements that the Fed did make is they intend to leave interest rates at zero throughout at least twenty, twenty three. Now, I'm not really sure if that means that maybe they're going to start raising them in twenty twenty three or they'll leave him at zero through the end of twenty, twenty three and they're not going to start raising them until twenty twenty four but whatever it is, it's a pretty solid commitment to leave rates at zero. I don't think the Federal Reserve at any point in time following the OH eight financial crisis made a commitment that solid right to leave rates for so low for so long, but I'm not the only one. That saying that this wasn't enough I mean even Neil Cash Gary came out today I was reading an article he wrote and he says that the Fed's commitment not to raise rates wasn't strong enough now I don't know what he's talking about I mean how much stronger could they have made it I mean could he added a few more not even thinking about thinking about it's pretty clear. The feds not to raise raise but maybe cash carey wants a more definitive statement that like we're not going to raise rates. No matter what. In his article that he wrote a kind of saying that the Fed's commitment to not raise rates wasn't strong enough what he did say though was that you know if we are surprised by unexpected heating up of inflation, he said, well, you know that's an easy problem for the Fed to solve a really a unexpected heating up. In is an easy problem to solve how exactly is the Fed going to solve and unexpected heating up of inflation? Well, it only has one tool, right monetary policy. All it can do is raise interest rates and shrink. It's balance sheet. It can sell treasuries and reduce the money supply which has been growing dramatically although the balance sheet his condiments stuck right around seven trillion So that hasn't really been moving I. Think we're getting ready for another big jump in that balance sheet though. But. How's the Fed? GonNa get a fight inflation. How was that an easy problem to solve? It's an impossible problem to solve which is why the Fed isn't even going to try. I. Mean It's amazing of Kashkari actually thinks that it will be a simple thing to reign in an unexpected heating up of inflation when that would require much bigger rate hikes mean the reason that cash. Carey wants to make sure the market knows that rates are going to stay zero indefinitely is because he knows how important these artificially low interest rates are to prop up the bubbles in the economy. Well, if he knows how important it is to keep these bubbles from deflating, how can he believe it's going to be so simple to raise interest rates if inflation picks up without pricking. The bubble. So the whole thing is ridiculous but as I said on one of my prior podcast about the market I think that the Fed is going to have to deliver a much larger dose of monetary stimulus because whatever stimulus has already been telegraphed to the market is already baked in. So now they need more rate the drug addicts need an even larger dose of this monetary. Heroin, they need shock and awe at this time. So in that respect cash carriers right that in order to get the markets to go up to fed has to bring more to the party as far as more money printing another round of Qe, a massive commitment to print money and to keep interest rates at zero but we're cash carriers. Wrong is the ability of the Fed to actually. Put out the inflation fire if it really starts to rage, it can't, and basically what cash gary really wants the Fed to say without actually saying it because he understands the ramifications is that we are going to keep interest rates at zero. No matter what happens to inflation no matter how high inflation goes we're going to stay at zero see that's really what he wants, and in fact, that's what. The Fed is going to do whether they wanNA, come out and say it or not. You have to read between the lines. They can't raise interest rates because they'll prick the very bubble that they deny exists and the reason they're keeping them zero. The reason they're saying that they're never going to raise them is because they understand this and so they're trying to thread this needle right without breaking the bubble. and. So when He comes out with these comments. He's clearly lying in fact, the one thing about the bubble. Is that nobody at the Fed wants to acknowledge its existence in fact at the press conference that? Followed up on the decision to leave rates zero. What are the most ridiculous comments that Powell made? Is His denial that there was a bubble because somebody asked him and I don't remember who? But one of the reporters at this press conference asked Powell if he was worried. About this easy monetary policy about his commitment to keep the rates at zero till twenty, twenty, three, twenty, twenty, four. If this risked creating bubbles in the financial markets
Business Beware
Fed's Kashkari calls for 6-week economic shutdown to control coronavirus spread
"President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, called for a nationwide economic shutdown of up to six weeks to get the Corona virus pandemic completely under control, warning that the rest of 2020 could be much worse than America has experienced thus far in the New York Times op Ed, he wrote, the next six months could make what we have experienced so far seem just like a warm up to a greater catastrophe. With many schools and colleges, starting stores and businesses reopening and the beginning of the indoor heating season, new case numbers will grow. Quickly using information from the Center for Infectious Disease Research. President
AP News Radio
Trump advisers cite need to stop 'permanent' economic toll
"Three leading members of the White House coronavirus task force are now in quarantine including the nation's top infectious disease expert Dr Anthony Fauci but administration officials are saying that shouldn't affect workers confidence that they can return to their jobs safely economic adviser Larry Kudlow tells ABC's this week why don't we rely heavily on what the business is the free enterprise system could produce companies are very innovative they know the job that has to be done this is more likely to be a slow more gradual recovery also appearing on ABC's this week federal reserve Minneapolis president Neel Kashkari says I would love to see a robust recovery but that would require a breakthrough in vaccines a breakthrough in widespread testing a breakthrough in therapies to give all of us confidence that it's safe to go back cascara Yance the economic effects of the pandemic are likely to be felt for a year or two Ben Thomas Washington
Money For the Rest of Us
Will Infinite Money Save the Economy?
"We'll Infinite Money Save the economy governments and central banks around the world are working on measures to combat the economic recession the contraction really. This shutdown of the economy related to the pandemic social distancing is causing people rightfully so to stay home. Jobs will be lost. Businesses will be hurt and are being hurt and it is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve in US and other central banks around the world to be the lender of last resort and for federal governments to step up and provide stimulus and emergency relief to households and businesses. Now there's a great deal of discussion with regard to how that relief should be delivered in this episode. We're going to look at some of the things that the Federal Reserve has announced and it appears the US government will announce some recording this on Tuesday march twenty fourth if not passed final emergency relief bill yet but we have some indication of what it will contain and we WANNA look at perhaps some unintended consequences namely the potential for inflation given the level of stimulus. It is a challenging thing for politicians in central banks are now. I do not envy their situation. But we'll see and discuss it and is there anything we can do to protect ourselves in case things don't necessarily go as planned last Sunday on sixty minutes news program. Scott pelley interviewed. Neil cash. Cari he is the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. He's the former assistant treasury secretary. He's a member of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee so he is in the room when the Federal Reserve is discussing. What should be done in the interview? Cash Cari mentioned. There was a huge demand for cash dollar bills by businesses and he says the Federal Reserve and as a member of the FM OC. We will absolutely meet those demands for cash withdrawals pelley asked him will the reserve. Just print money Kashkari response. That is literally what Congress has told us to do. That is the authority they have given us to print money and provide liquidity into the financial system we create it electronically and we can also print it with the Treasury Department he mentioned. How are stresses in the Bond Market? Bet It is freezing. Up companies are having difficulty borrowing money to fund their operations and we've also seen a lack of liquidity in bonds. There are too many sellers and not enough willing buyers. Liquidity is the ability to buy or sell an asset without impacting. It's price if there's a huge demand to sell a security and there's not enough willing buyers and the price drops so when cash Cari says the Federal Reserve will provide liquidity to the financial system. Sometimes called injecting the quickey. That means they're buying. The Federal Reserve is buying assets in order to provide a bid so that they don't fall further EM- price.
Bloomberg Law
China reports no new domestic virus cases for 1st time
"As imported cases of the coronavirus urged the Chinese city of Wuhan where it originated had no new infections for the first time hoping with the virus is not been easy here in the U. S. and the Minneapolis federal reserve president Neel Kashkari said today the U. S. Congress must act fast to help Americans already losing their jobs correspondent Richard quest reports with positive tests amid traders at the New York Stock Exchange come Monday the floor will be closed electronic trading will continue so the market is not being closed only the full the
Biz 1190 Overnight featuring Bloomberg Radio
Fed's Kashkari says he's not advocating an interest-rate cut
"Rub it seems if the rate traders have regained the rains from J POWs transitory argument, and a lot of part of Los we pumped it into the GT library. This is the fed funds and the imply rate by January of next year. And the market is a humane that we all probably going to see more likelihood of a rate cut on this market. Where do you stand transitory are the rate traders right in terms of inflation the argument? I think it's depends on a lot of things. Right. And when the net, Chris fishing this, and we profess to give a very clear accurate indication of inflation will be twelve in south. And I think a lot of it depends on trade as well. We don't think that the recent change in relation data. I think it was something like point one below consensus. Makes much of a difference in Cornflake running at around two point one percent. So we don't see the need right now any pressure that is for the fit to cut rates. If you look at unemployment, it's below four percents effectively put employment the US economy is doing fairly. Well, and inflation is still benign now, here's the thing. If you do have tariffs hitting US imports that will obviously lack was slow the economy, but at the same time will be an inflationary impact. And we should start to see those those impacts on inflation to the imports pretty coming through in the next six months says something to watch out fool, but right now, we offended comfortable with the the fed remaining flat for the next three to six months at