19 Episode results for "Kahan"

The Data Detective

Cautionary Tales

37:10 min | Last month

The Data Detective

"Pushkin let's get it done. With duncan dunkin is taking america's favorite coffee to new levels at twenty twenty one as the new explorer batch the globally sourced with smoky. Dark berry notes as also. New duncan midnight the richer intensely dark roast with hints of chocolate old days. Start with midnight. And don't forget the new hot or iced extra charged coffee with twenty percent. Extra caffeine from green coffee extract. Exactly what we all need to take on. Twenty twenty one. America runs on dunkin price and participation may vary limited time offer. Hello cautionary tales listeners. Tim harford here. I have some good news followed by a treat. The good news is that after long months in the making the new mega season of cautionary tales is about to appear right here on this feed fourteen episodes of fiasco in catastrophe of nerdy insights and heroic failures but occasionally not too often a happy ending. There were murderers idiots and heroes. There were fraudsters and fighters whistle blowers thera- gamblers and gamers geeks galore all played a stellar cast of actors so stellar in fact that i'm still pinching myself. I'm looking forward to revealing their names very soon. I loved writing series. Maybe hope that you're going to love listening to it. Starting weekly on the twenty sixth of february and now the treat loyal listeners may know that my new book. The data detective has just been released to the us and canada by publishes. We've had books have kindly agreed to let me share with you. The final chapter of the audiobook. In which i reveal the golden rule of thinking about numbers in the news. I've been so pleased with data detective. The international edition was called how to make the world at up and was a number one business bestseller in the uk. The data detective is book about how to think clearly about the world by being wiser about statistics and wiser about ourselves odar cognitive biases in it. I offer ten simple rules to help you be calmer and smarter is you scroll through social media or scan the headlines and plenty of stories to the book is available wherever books are sold and so is the audiobook read by yours truly. I hope you like the audiobook extract. You're about to hear and if you do look out for the data detective book e book and audiobook. An please spread the word. The golden rule be curious. I can think of nothing. An audience won't understand. The only problem is to interest them. Once they're interested they stand anything in the world orson welles. I've laid down ten statistical commandments. In this book. I we should learn to stop a notice. Our emotional reaction to a claim rather than accepting or rejecting it. Because of how it makes us feel second. We should look for ways to combine the birds. Ice statistical perspective with the worms eye view from personal experience third. We should look at the labels on the data. We're being given an ask if we understand what's really being described fourth. We should look for comparisons and context putting any claim into perspective fifth. We should look behind the statistics at where they came from and what other data might have vanished into obscurity sakes. We should ask who is missing from the data were being shown and whether our conclusions might differ if they were included seventh. We should ask tough questions about algorithms and the big data sets that drive them recognizing that without intelligent openness eight cannot be trusted eighth. We should pay more attention to the bedrock of officials artistic and the sometimes heroic statisticians who protected ninth. We should look under the surface of any beautiful graph or chart and temp. We should keep an open. Mind asking how we might be mistaken and whether the facts have changed realized that having ten commandments is something of a cliche and in truth. they don't commandments. So much as rules of thumb more habits of mind that. I've acquired the hard way as i've gone along. You might find them worth a try yourself when you come across a statistical claim of particular interest to you. Of course. I don't expect you to run personally. Who the checklist. With a claim you see in the media. Who has the time for that. Still they can be useful informing preliminary assessment of your new source is the journalist making an effort to define terms provide context assess sources. The less. these habits of mind are in evidence. The louder alarm bell should ring. Ten rules of thumb is still a lot for anyone to remember so pants. I should try to make things simpler. I realized that these suggestions have a common thread. A golden rule. If you like be curious look deeper and ask questions. It is a lot to ask. But i hope that it's not too much the start of this book. I begged you not to abandon the idea that we can understand the world by looking at it with the help of statistics. I believe we can and should be able to trust. That numbers can give answers to important questions. But of course numerous in virga. We shouldn't trust without also asking questions. The philosopher nora wants declared well placed trust grows out of active inquiry rather than blind acceptance. That seems right. If we want to be able to trust the world around us we need to show an interest and ask a few basic questions. And despite all the confusions of the modern world it has never been easier to find answers to those questions. Curiosity it turns out can be a remarkably powerful thing about a decade ago. A yale university researcher danka showed students some footage of a protest outside an unidentified building. Some of the students were told that it was a pro-life demonstration outside an abortion clinic. Others were informed that it was a gay rights demonstration outside an army recruitment office. The students were asked to factual questions was it. A peaceful protest did the protesters tried to intimidate people. Passing by do they scream or shout. Did they. block the entrance to the building. The answers people gave depending on the political identities embraced conservative students who believed they were looking at a demonstration against abortion so no problems with a protest now abuse violence now obstruction students on left. Who thought they were looking to gay rights. Protest reached the same conclusion. The protest is acted themselves with dignity and restraint but right-wing students who thought they were looking at a gay rights. Demonstration reached a very different conclusion. Now left wing students who believed they were watching an antiabortion protest. Both these groups concluded that the protesters had been aggressive intimidating and obstructed. Kahan was studying a problem. We met in the first chapter the way our political and cultural identity desire to belong to a community of like minded right thinking people can on certain hot button issues leaders to reach the conclusions. We wished to reach depressingly. Not only do we reach politically comfortable conclusions. When pausing complex statistical claims on issues such as climate change we reach politically comfortable conclusions regardless of the evidence of our own is as we saw earlier. Expertise is no guarantee against this kind of motivated reasoning republicans and democrats with high levels of scientific literacy off further apart on climate. Change to those. With little scientific education. The same disheartening pattern holds from nuclear power to gun control to fracking the more scientifically literate opponents are the more they disagree. The same is true for numeracy the greater the proficiency the more acute the polarization notes kahan after a long and fruitless search for an antidote to tribalism. Kahan could be forgiven for becoming jaded yet. A few years ago to his surprise kahane and his colleagues stumbled upon a trait that some people have and that other people can be encouraged to develop which inoculate saas against this toxic polarization on the most politically polluted tribal questions. Where intelligence and education fail this trait does not. And if you're desperately burningly curious to know what it is. Congratulations you may be inoculated already. Curiosity breaks the relentless pattern specifically kahan identified scientific curiosity. that's different from scientific literacy to qualities are correlated of course but there are curious people who know ravi little about science yet and highly trained people with little appetite to learn more more scientifically curious. Republicans aren't further apart from democrats on these polarized issues if anything that slightly closer together it's important not to exaggerate the effect cheerios. Republicans and democrats still disagree on issues such as climate change but the more curious they are the more they converge on what we might call an evidence based view of the issues in question or to put it another way. The more curious we are the less are tribalism seems to matter. There is little correlation between scientific curiosity and political affiliation happily. There are plenty of curious people across the political spectrum. Although the discovery surprised con- it makes sense as we've seen one of our most stubborn defenses against changing. Our minds is that we're good at filtering out or dismissing unwelcome information. A curious person however enjoys being surprised and hungers for the unexpected. He or she will not be filtering out surprising news because it's far too intriguing. The scientifically curious people hans team studied were originally identified with simple questions buried in marketing survey. So that people weren't conscious that curiosity was being measured one question for example was. How often do you read. Science books. Scientifically curious people are more interested in watching a documentary about space travel or penguins than a basketball game or a celebrity gossip show and they didn't just answer survey questions differently. They also made different choices in the psychology lab in one experiment. Participants were shown a range of headlines about climate change and invited to pick the most interesting article to read there were four headlines to suggested climate skepticism and two did not to reframed as surprising and two. We're not one. Scientists find still more evidence that global warming actually slowed in last decade. Skeptical unsurprising to scientists report surprising evidence arctic ice melting even faster than expected surprising and not skeptical. Three scientists report. Surprising evidence is increasing in antarctic not currently contributing to sea level rise. Skeptical and surprising. Four scientists find still more evidence linking global warming to weather neither surprising nor skeptical typically would expect people to reach for the article that pandered to their prejudices. the democrats would tend to favour headline that took global warming seriously while republicans would prefer something with a skeptical tone scientifically curious people. Republicans or democrats were different. They were happy to grab an article which ran counter to their preconceptions. As long as it seemed surprising and fresh and once you're actually reading the article as always a chance that it might teach you something. A surprising statistical claim is a challenge to our existing worldview. it may provoke an emotional response. Even fearful one. Niro scientific studies suggest that the brain responds in much the same anxious way to fact which threaten our preconceptions as it does to wild animals which tighten our lives yet for someone in a curious frame of mind in contrast a surprising claim need not provoke anxiety. It can be an engaging mystery or puzzle to solve you listening to an exit of the data detective. Courtesy of penguin random house audio. The data detective is a brand new book written and narrated by me. Tim harford and we'll be back with more after this message. Dunkin is taking america's favorite coffee to new levels with the boldest lineup new coffee choices in the browns seventy year history. As the new explorer batch globally sourced blend with smoky. Dark barry notes. This is the first coffee. In dunkin's limited batch series and it will only be available for a limited time representing the four major coffee growing regions of the world. It's the first time in duncan's history they'll be featuring beans from ethiopia and smarter. It's an adventure. In every sick as also new dunkin midnight richer intensely dark roast with hints of chocolate dunkin has offered a dark roast since two thousand fourteen but dunkin midnight is their darkest roast yet. And don't forget the new hot or iced extra charged coffee with twenty percent. Extra caffeine from green coffee extract. Exactly what we all need to take on. Twenty twenty one pair. Each new coffee with a delicious snack food from dunkin like stuffed bagel minute order ahead on the dunkin app and earn rewards. America runs on dunkin price and participation may vary limited time offer. Hey i'm andy if you don't know me it's probably because i'm not famous but i did start a men's grooming company called harry's the idea for harry's came out of a frustrating experience i had buying razor blades. Most brands were overpriced over. Designed and out of touch at harry's our approach simple. Here's our secret. We make sharp durable blades and sell them at honest prices for as low as two dollars. Each we care about quality so much that we do some crazy things like by world class german blade factory obsessing over every detail means we're confident and offering one hundred percent quality guarantee. Millions of guys have already made the switch to harry's so thank you if you're one of them and if you're not we hope you give us a try with this special offer. Get a harry starter. Set with a five blade. Razor waited handle shave gel and travel cover all for just three bucks plus free shipping just go to harrys dot com and enter four four four four at checkout. That's harrys dot com code. Four four four four enjoy. A curious person. Might at this point. Have some questions. When i met dan kahan the question. That was most urgent in my mind was. Can we cultivate curiosity. Can we become more curious. And can we inspire curiosity in others. There are reasons to believe that the answers are yes. One reason says kahan is that his measure of curiosity suggests that incremental change is possible when he measures scientific curiosity. he doesn't find a lump of stubbornly incurease people at one end of the spectrum and a lump of voraciously curious people at the other with a yawning gap in the middle instead curiosity follows a continuous bell curve. Most people are either moderately interiors or moderately curious. This doesn't prove that curiosity can be cultivated. Perhaps that bell curve is cast in iron yet does at least hold out some hope that people can be nudged a little further towards the curious end of that curve. Radical leap is required. A second reason is that curiosity is often situational in the right place at the right time. Curiosity will smolder in any of us. Indeed kahane's discovery that an individual scientific casati persisted over time was a surprise to some psychologists. They had believed with some reason that there was no such thing as a curious person. Just a situation that inspired curiosity in fact it does now seem that people can tend to be curious or injurious that does not alter the fact that curiosity can be fueled or dampened by context. We all have it in us to be curious not about different things at different times one thing that provokes curiosity is the sense of gap in our knowledge to be filled. George lowenstein a behavioral economist. Frame this idea in what has become known as the information. Gap theory of curiosity has lowenstein puts. It curiosity starts to glow when there's a gap between what we know and what we want to know. There's a sweet spot for curiosity. If we know nothing we ask no questions. If we know everything we ask no questions either. Curiosity has fueled once we know enough to know that we do not know alas open. Don't even think about what we don't know there's a beautiful little experiment about our in curiosity conducted by the psychologists leonard rosenblatt and frank kyle. They gave their experimental subjects a simple task to look through list of everyday objects such as a flash laboratory zip fastener and bicycle to rate their understanding of each object on a scale of one to seven after people had written down their ratings. The researchers would gently launch a devastating ambush. They asked the subjects to elaborate is a pen and paper. They would say. Please write out your explanation of a flush lavatory in as much detail as he can by. All means include diagrams. It turns out that this task wasn't as easy as people had thought. People stumbled struggling to explain the details of everyday mechanisms. They had assumed that those details would readily spring to mind and they did not and to their credit. Most experimental subjects realized that they've been lying to themselves. They had felt they understood zip fasteners and laboratories but when invited to elaborate realized. They didn't understand tool when people were asked to reconsider that. Previous wauneta seven rating. They mark themselves down acknowledging that their knowledge had been shallower than they'd realized rosenblatt. And kyle called this. The illusion of explanatory debts the illusion of explanatory. Depth is a curiosity killer and trap. If we think we already understand why go deeper. Why ask questions. It is striking that it was so easy to get people to pull back from that earlier. Confidence all it took was to get them to reflect on the gaps in their knowledge and does lowenstein argued gaps in knowledge. fuel curiosity. There is more at stake here than zip fasteners. Another team of researchers led by philip fern. Back can steve sloman. Authors of the knowledge illusion adapted the flash laboratory question ask about policies such as a cap and trade system for carbon emissions a flat tax or a proposal to impose unilateral sanctions on iran. The researches importantly didn't ask people whether or not they were in favour of or against these policies as plenty of prior evidence that such questions would lead people to dig in instead fern back and his colleagues. Just ask them the same simple question please. Rate your understanding on a scale of one to seven then the same devastating up please elaborate tell us exactly what unilateral sanctions are and how a flat works and the same thing happened. People said yes they basically understood these policies fairly well then when prompted to explain the illusion was dispelled. They realized that. perhaps they didn't really understand a toll. More striking was that when the illusion faded political polarization also started to fade people who would have instinctively described political opponents as wicked and who would've gone to the barricades to defend their own ideas tended to be less strident when forced to admit to themselves that they didn't fully understand what it was that they were so passionate about in the first place. The experiment influenced actions as well as words. Research has found that people became less likely to give money to lobby groups or other organizations which supported the positions. They had once. It's a rather beautiful discovery in a world where so many people seem to hold extreme views with strident certainty. You can deflate. Somebody's overconfidence and moderate their politics. Simply by asking them to explain the details. next time. you're in a politically argument. Try asking your interlocutor. Not to justify herself but simply to explain the policy in question she wants to introduce a universal basic income or a flat tax or a points based immigration system or medicare for all. Okay that's interesting. So what exactly does she mean by that. She may learn something as she tries to explain. So may you and you may both find that you understand a little less and agree a little more than you had assumed figuring out the workings of a flush lavatory understanding what a cap and trade scheme really is can require some effort one way to encourage that hefford his to embarrass somebody by innocently inviting an overconfident on a scale of one to seven but another kind of way is to engage their interest as awesome. Well said once people are interested they can understand anything in the world to engage. People's entrust is neither a new problem nor an intractable. One novelists screenwriters and comedians have been figuring out this craft for as long as they've existed. They know that we love mistress drawn in by sympathetic characters. Enjoy the arc of a good story and we'll stick around anything that makes us laugh and scientific evidence suggests that awesome wells was absolutely right for example studies in which people were asked to read narratives and non narrative texts found that the zipped through the narrative at twice the speed and recalled twice as much information later as for humor. Consider the case of the comedian. Stephen calbears civics lesson before his current role as the host of the late. Show colbert presented the colbert report in character as a blowhard right-wing commentator in march twenty eleven. Kobe began a long running joke in which he explored the role of money in us politics. He decided that he needed to set up a political action committee pac to raise funds in case. He decided to run for president. I clearly need a pack. But i have no idea what tax do he explained to a friendly expert on air. Over the course of the next few weeks culbert had packs and super pacs and five hundred one c four's explained to him from where they could accept donations up to what limits with what transparency requirements and to spend on what he was to discover that the right combination of fundraising structures could be used to raise almost any amount of money for almost any purpose with almost no disclosure clearly see force have created an unprecedented unaccountable untraceable cash tsunami that will infect every corner of the next election he mused and i feel like an idiot for not having one colbert later. Learned how to dissolve his fundraising structures and keep the money without notifying the tax man by repeatedly returning to the topic and in character demanding advice as to how to abuse the electoral rules colbert explored campaign finance. In far more depth than any news report could have dreamed of doing all of this actually improve view as knowledge of the issue. It seems so a team including kathleen hall jamieson. Who also worked with dan. Kahan scientific curiosity research used the kobe storyline to investigate how much people learned amid the laughter. They found that watching the colbert. Report was correlated with increased knowledge about super pacs and five. Oh one c. four groups how. They worked what they could legally do reading a newspaper or listening to talk. Radio also helps the effect of the colbert. Report was much bigger. One day a week of watching culbert taught people as much about campaign finance as four days a week reading a newspaper for example or five extra years of schooling of course this is a measure of correlation not causation. It's possible the people who were already interested in super pacs tuned into kobe. To hear him wisecracker about them or perhaps politics junkies know about super pacs and also love watching culbert. But i suspect the show. 'cause the growing understanding because kobe really did go deep into the details and large audiences stock with him because he was funny. He doesn't have to be one of america's best loved comedians to pull off this trick. The npr podcast planet. Money wants shed light on the details of the global economy by designing manufacturing and importing several thousand shirts. This allowed a long running. Storyline investigating cotton farming the role of automation in textiles. How african communities make new fashions out of donated american t. shirts the logistics of the shipping industry and strange details such as the fact that the men shirts which were made in bangladesh attracted tariff sixteen point five percent whereas the women shirts made in columbia. Our duty-free these examples should be models for communication precisely because they inspire curiosity. How does money influence. Politics is not an especially engaging question. But if i were running for president how would i raise lots of money. With few conditions and no scrutiny. Is much more intriguing. Those of us in the business of communicating ideas need to go. Beyond the fact check can the statistical smackdown facts are valuable things and so is fact checking but if we really want people to understand complex issues. We need to engage their curiosity. If people curious they will learn. I found this in my own work with a team who make more or less for the bbc. The program is often regarded affectionately as a myth buster. I feel that our best work is when we used to illuminate the truth. Rather than to debunk extreme of falsehoods. We try to bring people along with us as we explore the world around us with the help of reliable numbers. What's false is interesting but not as interesting as true. After the referendum of twenty sixteen in which my fellow british voters decided to leave the european union the economics profession engaged in some soul-searching most technical experts thought that leaving the eu was a bad idea costly complex and unlikely to deliver many of the promised benefits or solve the country's most pressing problems yet as one infamous soundbite put it. The people in this country have had enough experts. Few people seem to care. Won't economists had to say on the subject and to our credit. I think professional economists onto to understand what we had done wrong and whether we might do better in future later at a conference about the profession and the public the great and the good of the british economics community pondered. The problem disgust solutions. We needed to be more. Chatty and approachable on twitter suggested one analysis we needed to express ourselves clearly and without jogging offered many speakers not unreasonably. My own perspective was different. I argued that we were operating in a politically polarized environment. In which almost any opinion we might offer would be fiercely. Contested by partisans economists deal with controversial issues such as inequality taxation public spending climate change trade immigration and of course brexit in such a phibro broil environment. Speaking slowly and clearly would only get you so to communicate complex ideas. We needed to spark people's curiosity even inspire a sense of wonder the great science communicators after all people. Such as stephen hawking and david attenborough do not win over people simply by using small words crisply spoken they stoke the flames of our curiosity making us burn with desire to learn more. If we economists want people to understand economics we must. I engage their interest. What is true of. Economists is equally true for scientists social scientists historians statisticians or anyone else with complex ideas to convey whether the topic is the evolution of black holes or the emergence of black lives matter the possibility of pre-commission or the necessity of pre registration the details matter and presented in the right way they should always have the capacity to fascinate us. Awaken our sense of wander. I say to my fellow nerd communicators ignite the spark of curiosity and give it some fuel using the time honored methods of storytelling character. Suspense and humor. But let's not rely on the journalists and the scientists and the other communicators of complex ideas. We have to be responsible for our own sense of curiosity. As the saying goes only boring people get bored. The world is so much more interesting if we take an active interest in it. The cure for boredom is curiosity goes an old saying. There is no cure for curiosity. Just so once we start to appear beneath the surface of things become aware of the gaps in knowledge and treat each question as the path to a better question. We find that. Curiosity is habit forming. Sometimes we need to think like darrell. Half there is a place in life for the mean hard-nosed skepticism that asks. Where's the trick. Why is this lying bastard lying to me. But while i don't believe it is sometimes the right starting point. When confronted with a surprising statistical claim it is a lazy and depressing place to finish. And i hope you won't finish there. I hope that i have persuaded you. We should make more room. Both for the novelty seeking curiosity that says tell me more and the dog had curiosity that drove austin bradford hill and rich dull. Ask why so. Many people were dying of lung cancer and whether cigarettes might be to blame if we want to make the world add up. We need to ask questions. Open-minded genuine questions. And once we start asking them we may find it. Delightfully difficult to stop. That was an extract from my new book. The data detective. The international edition is make world up. Thanks for listening and keep on listening. Because cautionary tales is back on the twenty six th february.

kahan dunkin Tim harford Kahan america duncan dunkin Dark berry virga danka harry kahane colbert culbert duncan Dark barry Pushkin orson welles dan kahan lowenstein
Steve Kahan advises young professionals to find jobs at tech startups

Jazzed About Work

28:40 min | 10 months ago

Steve Kahan advises young professionals to find jobs at tech startups

"This podcast is brought to you by the Voinovich School of Leadership and Public Affairs at Ohio University. Hello Everyone I'm Jones and this is just about work where we talk about everything that might have an impact on your career. Our guest today is Steve. Kahan a serial entrepreneur and a marketing expert. Who's been a leader in a number of successful tech startups? Steve Guy who cares about young people. And he's given a lot of thought about how they can get their careers off to a strong start. He's also thought about how you can re boot your career. If you're feeling stack and an unsatisfying job so see has written a book. That's full of good advice. The full title is via startup superstar. Ignite your career working at a textile today. Steeple share some helpful advice about startups and about some career basics. For Everyone Steve. Your Book Be Startup. Superstar answers a lot of questions that I think a lot of people have and really excited about getting into it but before we do that. I am very interested in your story. We always are interested in career stories here on just about work but I WANNA know. How did you make the leap from one kind of track over to the world of startups? How did it all come about? So if you take a step back. I found for me that the traditional path from school the climbing the corporate ladder could not only be high risk for my career. It could almost feel like a death trap and my father like any other fathers and mothers out. There used to tell me so many times. When I was growing up he would say Steve. Get your degree. Go to work for a large corporation. You work hard. They'll take care of you and you will have a great career and then my father would say. Of course your mother and I would prefer you'd become a doctor or a lawyer but short of that getting a job at a large corporation will do so. That was a path I took and And so I started my career working at a large corporation processing claims staring at my bank statement and the pile claims that I was processing a wondering. How on earth I would ever actually get ahead. And I'd work long days in the student. Loans would take a hold of my paychecks before they'd ever hit my bank account so for me. I asked myself a very important question and that was how could I earn a great living and loved the work I do and it was at that point that I decided to make the lead to the start up world Joined a small team of crazies. Hell bent on changing the world and I've made that leap and thirty years later. I'm still in the startup world and have loved every moment of it. Well before we go on let me ask a real basic question for people Startups thirty years ago. Maybe you're different than the are at a day. Startup world is is still kinda crazy though. So how would you define what a startup actors is what phase of the business qualifies as a startup right? So if you read what the United States Small Business Administration says when they define a startup they'll say the startup is a company. That's been in business for under a year and in the formative stages but that actually paints a poor picture for what defines a startup and My friend Doug Irwin. Who's chairman of a Venture Capital Company and Serial Technology Entrepreneur? He offers I believe a far more instructive definition. He says that a startup is a company that operates like it's the last frontier for a place. Where non conformist can live create? Sell THEIR IDEAS. And it's a place where you get to be the rough writing rebel running circles around the slow moving bureaucratic large corporations and so start up is really a culture. It's a mindset. Is that team of crazies. That believes that it could change the world. Well you make a very Romantic picture but it means a lot of hard work and maybe shifting roles and pretty fluid doesn't it if you join a startup it does. I mean there's no question about it I mean if you're a start up you're going to have to work hard And there there can be long hours. But also it's a it's a great place to be because of the fact that you have great versatility in your role that you get the opportunity to wear many hats. And the world pays for deep expertise and typically at startups. Because there's not tons of other resources all right around you you get that opportunity to gain exponential learning opportunities and if you're a entrepreneurial willing to take advantage of those opportunities then you're able to build upon that knowledge it's just a great environment to be in and there's no question that there is a great amount of change in there is risk but But if you if you like an environment that has attribute such as the ones that I've suggested it could be a great place for you to be well. There's always uncertainty in the job market. No matter what you're doing and what I thought when I read your book is that part of what motivated you to write. The book is that you have you have compassion for young people in the job market. You worried about Their ability to get out of debt. And you're worried about their Possibilities for for growth is is that really part of why you are talking about startups. Because you think there's flexibility and opportunity there for for people who really struggling. I do What I'm most concerned about is that nearly forty three percent of college graduates with a bachelor degree are underemployed. And then if you add on top that say you've already met. You made the leap into a building your career. If you Google the phrase people who feel stuck in their corporate jobs you'll get nearly three hundred million results which means that. There's a lot of people who feel this way. I mean that's a lot of content and so from my perspective I sort of also see it this way as that. What have you have your heart set and getting in the C. Suite in your career or getting in the Sweden if you decided to join the fortune five hundred. I've got two words for you. And they are good luck. And obviously there can only be five hundred. Ceo's in the fortune five hundred and maybe five thousand in the C. Suite all told and many of those people stay in their jobs for years. Which means that your odds of being in the C. Suite in the fortune five hundred are about the same as your odds of being drafted into the National Football League where two hundred and fifty four players are selected in each year's NFL draft. Compare this to the forty six thousand startups in the United States alone. Along with a recent study where CEOS at startups were ask. What's the number one issue keeping them up at night? And it's hiring good people and think of that. Hiring good people was rated ahead of growing revenue. Acquiring customers are gaining access to more capital so given the fact that people many people feel stuck in their corporate jobs or underemployed and that startups there so many good ones that are desperate for hiring. I felt that that connection needs to be made and that I might be able to help facilitate The accomplishment of better professional and hopefully financial outcomes for for young people around the globe. Well I know that we have many young professionals in our among our listeners and so I bet I'm feeling excited for them as you talk about the startup culture and start up. So let's say we have listeners out there who are who are ready to go based on what you've been saying how do they get started Looking for a startup. Getting Ready for it. So there are many ways that you could think about looking for these startups but lemme perhaps suggest to unconventional ways. That listeners can go find some amazingly great jobs. So I if you take a look at a getting on Google and googling the word accelerators or seed accelerators. These are application only programs that provide capital mentorship and educational opportunities to the startups that they typically fund. And if you Google accelerators they exist in most every major city around the United States and a lot of these accelerators list the companies that they fund and those companies list the jobs that they have available. And so. That's one hidden jam where you could go to look for these opportunities that a lot of people just don't know about another is engaging with startup looking online and this is something that people just don't do and so just take myself for example. There have been a number of people over the years that have watched what I've communicated socially and come directly to me hiring manager of the Lincoln Messenger for example and you. You would do this not in a sales away but in a sincere heartfelt a fashion in which you're looking for some career guidance and what you'll find is that many startup leaders realized that they've been helped themselves along the way of their career and they wanna be able to pay it forward and don't be dissuaded if you don't have all the startup leaders engage with you because they're busy people but a lot of these startup leaders actually will and so going directly to those people and companies that you might want to be a part of and doing it as I mentioned in a sincere way might actually enable you to transition the conversation to you which might then give you access to the great jobs that are within that company or within that executives network so two ways to To find some great Roles that people might not necessarily consider. Are there certain Skill sets that are most in demand. What if you are A liberal arts graduate from college and you're sitting processing claims somewhere Should you be going back to school? I or how? How do you prepare yourself to to make a case that you're a good possibility so I am living proof that for example I've been in technology and in cyber security my entire career and I couldn't code a line of code if my life depended on it right and so there are opportunities a great opportunities whether it's in technology biotech or whatever it might be for people who have a variety of backgrounds across all functional areas? What's really important are the attributes that you bring to the table that make you a great startup. Candidate attributes like accountability people who embrace accountability to get things done. You can't hide at a startup of people who are not I e people and you'll know I people by those who tend to take all the credit but rather we people and these are the folks that are much more willing to share the credit. Because you'll be working typically with a small team you've got to work well with them People who are prepared to work hard because there's no easy button and then also those that have persistence and tenacity at a startup. You're going to be going up against bigger better-funded competitors you don't WanNa take small obstacles in and turn them into a great big mountains up but then also to have the tenacity to blow past those obstacles. That will surely come up along the way. I think if those are attributes that in reflection described you. As you're listening to this you very well may be someone who could be outstanding to work within a startup. We'll be back with Bev after this brief message. Are you ready to make a difference in the world? The Voinovich School of Leadership and Public Affairs had Ohio. University can give you the skills to do just that. The school offers a multidisciplinary approach where Public Policy Environmental Studies in entrepreneurship. Come together to educate. Tomorrow's leaders learn more about the master's in public administration or environmental studies by visiting Ohio Dot. Edu Slash one of its those startups. Although they may be wonderful experiences most startups fail and means that you have to go and look for another startup to continue your pass if you make the wrong choice wrong in the sense that it doesn't turn into the next great thing is that A real career killer or is that just a step along the way. It's a step along the way and what I've learned is how to choose the good startups right because there's a lot of them and you're right a lot won't make it but if you have the criteria that you are much more likely to to select a startup that is successful That's obviously where you WANNA be. And so here are the criteria that I look for when I joined a startup and by the way I'm now on my seventh start up all six of successfully soul prior so if it was just one or two maybe it would have been just dumb luck but I guess after several. It's it's I've learned some some really important things. Here's what I look. So the first thing is is quality people who share your values so people reflect a company's culture and if you don't think you can respect trust and admire the senior leadership that's involved move on and what you're looking for. First and foremost is a management team solid team of leaders who rock your world. So that's the first thing that I look for. Second is a concept that fills a big market need particularly in the B. Two B. World buyers. Don't spend money on Nice to solve problems. They spend money on muscles. And there's lots of research you could do right in. Google to read what analysts are. Influencers are saying to make sure that the marketplace is big enough. And don't be worried if you see that there's lots of competition. Worry if you see. There's no competition which suggests that there might not be a market. So that's the second thing third. I look for great product that I can believe in and so there is more of what I purchase it. Use it or recommend it and can I go to work every day with a passion for what the company crates and in particular myhrl or your role in creating so you WanNa make sure that you can get bee hind that product with great enthusiasm and then finally I look for to determine if the startup is well funded so you want to choose a startup. That has a long enough runway to get off the ground. So make sure that. It's properly capitalized. You of the best chance for growth and stability. Those are the criteria that I look for and for me. All of those boxes must be checked. It sounds that they add up to a really terrific opportunity. So so let's say that I'm We have a listener and they take your advice and they do their homework and they find us a place. It checks all those boxes. Do you have any tips on how they can prepare for their interviews? So I think the the first tip that I would give would be. I'm an offer to is that. Do you have an elevator pitch for yourself right? And so so. Many people memorize the elevator pitch for the companies that they worked for but they don't have one for themselves and start up executives. They WanNa know why you and they WanNa know it in the first sixty seconds and so a lot of people haven't thought about how to concisely articulate. Why them the second thing is is the questions that you ask so I laid out some criteria that are absolutely critical to to selecting a great startup. But how do you actually determine the answers for those questions and can you really learn about that startup but asked smart questions that in fact actually differentiate yourself in the process because no one else is gonNA ask them so? These are the questions that I would recommend that you might consider Asking and this would be a good time to take out a pen Or type these out. So why is now the time for your company to Exist? What are you love about your team? And why are you the ones to solve this problem? Tell me about pain customer. What was that journey? And what are the revenue expectations for that customer over the next year? What key milestones has your company achieved? How much is the company raised? And what's its runway? Who are your investors? And why did you choose them? And the last question I would offer up. And this really gets at the values of the management that you're interviewing with if you weren't building your start up. What would you be doing? Think if you have an elevator pitch. That certainly would be helpful. I'm assuming you'll do some research on the company but if you ask some great questions like those not only will you learn a ton but I can assure you no one else is going to be asking the those questions all tall and you'll have a A great opportunity to differentiate yourself and learn a ton in the process. I think those are terrific. Questions and asking meaningful open ended questions like that. That's a wonderful technique for any kind of interview situation. You don't have to Be just looking at a store it up and but that brings me to the second part of your book. The first part really focuses in on the start up environment and the second part I think. Offer some to Ref Career advise for just about anybody would it would seem to me that the are Interview advice applies that. What what are some other key things that you think Young professionals should take away from your book when they're thinking about Creating career wherever it is so I've got so many Baloney cover Cover one or two for you. So regularly challenge the status quo. So we've all heard the old sayings if an April don't fix it or that's the way we've always done things around here and the status quo is strong because in many ways it represents a bias could permeate the culture of accompanied for keeping in place the current state of affairs the status quo is comfortable. It's predictable people think it's less risky. But I can assure you that growth requires change and most every person an organization that wants to become great at some point had the challenge. The status quo particularly as the pace of change is as incredible as it actually is. And it's not about being the contrarian that challenge is every single little thing but it's simply that you you can achieve and build on success if you continue to do the same old things in the same old way so that would be one. Another would be Acknowledging the elephant in the room and here is that you will be in business meetings. And maybe you've already been in them where things seem to be going gray. You're getting stuff accomplished and yet there's one big issue that is hanging over. Everyone like a cloud and this is issue that everyone is thinking about but nobody wants to discuss and so people tiptoe around it and that's what's known as the elephant in the room and it's an expression that refers to the big obvious challenge or problem that no one wants to bring up because it might be a little bit uncomfortable and of course it's it's it's less stressful to avoid those big problems but unlike fine wine in my experience that these elephants don't get better over time they rarely vanish. So if you see that there's an elephant in the room and of course make sure it's actually an elephant Address it head on those would a couple of many pieces of advice that I would offer up of for people to consider one of my favorites. Among your pieces of advice is to have a learning plan to commit yourself to learning Both deep learning about specific things and broad learning so that you can make lots of connections is. Is that one of your favorites to it. Is I mean when you think about learning and this is So important is that organizations today. You might think that they have training plans that are in place and device For you and what you'll will find whether you're in a small startup which for sure they won't or a large corporation which they might say that they do but they don't is that you've got take accountability for your own learning and realize that it is constant learning if you look at my deep domain of expertise it is marketing and when I got started versus where marketing is today. It is completely changed and it's even changed over the last few years. A for example in marketing. Today it's all about the metrics it is it is so financial and metrics Related that in many ways. You GotTa really be outstanding at at those Topics and that isn't how marketing always was. So I you need to take charge of building your own learning plan certainly people that you That you report to or mentors that you might have might help you to to a bill that more rally but then committing to constant learning Particularly in the world that we live in today is so important for you to stay at the top of your game and really be that a plus player that you have the potential to be. I totally agree with you. I think that's great advice and your book. It's full of great advice. The full title of the book is be a startup superstar. Ignite your career working at a tech start up before. We close Steve. Is there anything else you want readers or listeners? To know about your book the book really goes much more into codifying and land a job at a great startup and what I call under seven keys for the C. Suite thirty five actions attitudes and behaviors. That one should have to maximize success. It's it's a quick read. It's a lot of how to implementable information. And so I I hope that your listeners. Like it and that they contact me with any questions or comments that they might have. Thanks very much and thanks for joining us today. Thank you for having me today. We've been talking with Steve Callaghan about how and why you might want to go after a job in a tech start up. This podcast is produced by W. O. U. B. Public Media Adam riches our audio engineer. I'm your host Bev. Jones or of think like an entrepreneur act like a CEO. Today's career tip is that it's never a bad career. Move to keep learning and building expertise. It's important to have deep knowledge in at least one area and broad knowledge cutting across many fields. Thanks for joining us today. If you've enjoyed our show please tell your friends.

Google Voinovich School of Leadership Steve Ceo Ohio Jones United States Steve Guy National Football League Kahan United States Small Business A Steeple Doug Irwin Steve Callaghan Ohio University Ref Career C. Suite chairman Sweden
BONUS 271: Affording Infertility without Bankruptcy

Beat Infertility

42:29 min | 7 months ago

BONUS 271: Affording Infertility without Bankruptcy

"Welcome to be infertility a podcast where we get real about infertility empowered you to take back control and provide you with hope for the future ready. Here's your host fellow infertility warrior heather, whom in. A. Bonus episode to seventy one. Today's guys his Chrissy Kahan and infertility warrior and author of baby bankrupt. We will be discussing advice from her book about affording fertility treatments without going bankrupt you can find baby bankrupt online at Amazon Dot Com. And as always, don't forget to visit our website for more information about this episode at beat infertility. Dot Co such bonuses to seventy one. Take a listen. A Hi Chrissy welcome back to the show. Thank you so much for having me back on. Yeah. It's a long time since you've but on the show I interviewed you about your journey and episodes one fifteen and one, fifty nine. Yes. Because we can't assume that everyone's listened to those. Why don't you tell us about your journey to date sure So it's been an eight year journey so far still. Going with infertility started out, you know I was a a young newlywed and we were excited to start a family and then I realized I had a coconut shaped fibroid tumor and my husband had very conceal all which means he has varicose veins down there in the only side effect is infertility. So we started our journey having surgeries and then I assumed that we would be able to conceive naturally after that. Wasn't the case after that, because we were both in education, we decided to try to foster to adopt through the system in Maryland's. We got two beautiful girls ages five and seven who we had for five months, and then we ended up losing them because of the challenges within the system and the system wanted to reunite with biological mom who was convicted of abuse. So it was through my advocacy because I could not stand the. Toll it was taking on my youngest mentally end that we ended up losing them, and so that led us to write our first book navigating the road of infertility. Then we chide I via and did about four rounds to miscarriages and they thought I had a blood clotting disorder. So we were kind of on hold for a while we came back. We had another round, and at that point, my husband's really didn't have any viable sperm left. So then we started to look into adoption we were denied for international adoption. We wanted to do special needs in China. We were denied because we didn't have eighty thousand in acids, assets lying around, and we both have anxiety and depression. So then we started to look into domestic adoption that would would have been about forty, four, thousand dollars, and so he started that process in the middle of that process, we got accepted for embryo adoption. which I thought was fabulous because it would be like adoption except I could carry the baby everybody else that got our embryos that we chose got pregnant with twins. Unfortunately, it did not work for me. So we gave it some time after that, and then we went back to domestic adoption. We started that process, but it was too expensive and we actually ended up filing for bankruptcy because we had spent like thirty, eight, thousand dollars to that point. So that led me to start writing my book baby bankrupts where I talked through all these challenges and then we tried one more round of IVF because we give it another year and everybody said, Oh, you need a you know greater fertility clinic that has better averages. It's bigger. So we went to shady grove fertility bashed in the business and same outcome did not work so I can honestly say it was a lie and here we are never. Thought of back here but we're now living in Florida and we are classics done going through the process of adopting through foster care down here in together teenager you have been through quite the journey. That's for sure. Yes. We are going to talk about baby bankrupt today. There's a lot of advice in the books I WANNA go over that as well as just general tips for affording treatments without going bankrupt. We obviously don't want anyone that go bankrupt. Not So, let's start off with the easy ones. Why did you write the book I really wrote the book because I feel like you get a lot of advice when you're going through infertility my husband and I have been very open about our journey and people just loved his hone you like just go adopt or there are so many kids in foster care just do that urges do I the F. I really wanted people to understand the breakdown a what ATM me. So within my book, I included all the forms, the process, the cost of each I had very good insurance. I was an assistant principal, and even with my insurance, it ended up costing me so much money because with IBM just adds up all those visits. So I really wanted people to know what you're telling someone to do and what it looks like. A. How did you lay out the book to make it easy to follow? It's interesting because you know the last eight years I never thought. I would end up writing that book anybody to be honest with you, and so of course, I've saved all these forms and everything along our journey. Not really mean to just because you know you save important worms that cost you money. Because we had moved to Florida I really went through everything I had I didn't outline of some of the most popular vice people like to say, and that is how I did my chapters and through my chapters with that advice I broke down the time line and then the process and the cost for each option that we lived through fostering surgeries adoption every kind of adoption an IBM Ho should this book be used as a resource for infertility warriors anybody going through infertility? You're in part of a club you never signed up to be an and it's so hard at so many different emotions. So four infertility warriors who are starting who are in the middle who are at the end you have a happy ending or don't I want them to read this and now that they're not alone and there is this resource here especially in the beginning if they're trying to figure out where to go. It's a good resource to use. The intent was also to have people who haven't been through infertility but no someone because we know it's one out of eight one out of eighty couples and I think it's getting smaller than that statistically. Everybody knows someone struggling hiccup in read the buck because please don't send and I had this happened so many times in all my friends and family met well but they just sent me pictures of kids that were up for adoption or the country not realizing the whole process that you need to go through to get. So I wanNA people who give that advice really know what they're saying you stole my next question I was going. To ask how can this be helpful for those who aren't going through infertility just to clarify you're suggesting those folks by the book, read the Book and just educate themself about the process. So they don't send you pictures of kids upward option. Yes or even you know I found myself out to dinner the other night and I was with my mom and one of her friends and we were talking about our process right now and This is something that just you know you get those common things that are told you throughout your infertility journey just makes you cringe and she said we were talking about our process right now and she said Oh will you know when you adopt you're going to get pregnant. I just I cringed because it's just not medically possible. I understand that happens to people, but it's just not medically possible for me, and so I really would like for people who have not experienced themselves to understand exactly what us infertility warriors are faced with what we go through and the struggle of Alabama of it emotionally, and financially you discuss multiple options for infertility in your book. Ivy F fostering different types of adoption. Is there an order in which someone struggling with infertility mark want to consider these options? That's a great question. I got a lot of negative comments when I started posting about going through I v F. And I of course, you know you have to have those conversations with people courageous late because I would get the comments odor of so many unwanted kids. There are so many kids in adoption just do that for me. I never planned on doing ivf i. did it probably backwards usually when people have infertility issues, they start out, go to their doctor. I had the push my doctor to get a Sonogram because you know when you're young, they just tell you give it more time once I found out, we could not conceive naturally being an educator unloving kids no matter what my heart wanted to go right into the foster care system most people probably. Would have gone through the ass than considered all the medical options and then started to think about adoption I was very naive and my thinking male, and that's where I really wanted to go into the foster care system because we went into it class wine, raise their hand and said, we're in this for adoption assuming are fostering agency would help us get the right match foster care. The primary goal is reunification apparent. No matter what and so what you don't realize when you're signing up for that is you're just like housing the child, you are not there to adopt them and less parental rights have already been terminated again I did it out of whack. You know we did become parents for five months. We had thought we were told those girls the rights had been terminated, but it was a very messed up case and then after that, I realized how hard it is for rights to get taken away from biological parents and that's what I chose to on this journey to have my old really i. did it very very backwards I think most people would go through the stabs through. IBS and then explore adoption I want to go through each of those options one at a time. Let's start with of how did the idea process differ at each fertility clinic you saw. The first. Facility Center I was with the were like my family because that doctor did my surgery and when you go through something as scary at least it was for me the whole fibroids humor and going you know inpatient stay for three days. I really built a bond with that doctor. So I wanted to stick with her it was a smaller fertility clinic sell. In everybody knows your name everybody knows your story it's like they're your support I really loved that about that. I was with them for like four of. Trials. larger Fertility Centre Shady Grove. It reminded me of like. You know you go to the Deli you take a number you sit there there were so many patients I will say though the setting it was like you were in a spa like. Nannies the music. It was just it was bigger. It had a different feel. But at first I was really put off because I didn't feel that personal connection and so. I wanted to give it a chance just because I wanted to try for myself to see the difference in both and I think people just need to know what are you want more? Do you want a more personalized experience where it's a smaller clinic but they may not have as many advances medically as a larger clinic or do you want that? Larger feel that more popular place where you're probably going to be just more of a number, but they do have more medical advances. So I think it varies depending on what kind of experience people want what should listeners know if they are considering ivf you WanNa, know the process and you want to find a doctor fertility specialists that you feel comfortable with. They should be able to sit down with you listen to your feedback explain all your questions and not make you feel bad if they make you feel bad in any way goats who another fertility specialist because it is such a long journey you have so many emotions as you're going through it and you need to feel confident in your team that they are trusting you because it's your body and no matter the experience they may not know your body and that was the case for me. And that is where I had a lot of medical difficulties and I would say my first fertility specialist respected that way more than my second experience. What told did IBM take on you emotionally physically and of course, financially I the F. is such a roller coaster and again my husband charged documented as best we could you're on all these different medications, all these different pills. So your hormones are all over the place you're getting multiple shots through the majority of the process you're getting blood take. The second at Shady Grove for me I pretty much got blood taken every single day looking back. Now you know I was an assistant principal in an elementary school with six hundred students for the teachers I really don't know how I did that to start my day because you end up starting your day Kinda dropping your pants and go in and getting blood taken and it's like good morning how are you and then you go on your way I just I'm not really sure how I did it but you know us warriors you do anything to try to achieve your dream and so you just need to prepare yourself. It's It's a long road. It takes a very strong physical toll on you and then the egg retrieval some people I've heard say it's not a big deal for me. It was a big deal every time they put you under in for me we found out the type of anesthesia that was used with me. To. Like turn blue or pass out. So it was very scary because about three times I really thought I was going to die. That's how fell and also for me I do not have blood that can be easily taken due to my means. So physically that really took a toll and then you hope you get like a nurse that can understand you A. Couple of times I got really nasty nurses through the experiences financially even though they give you a calendar in a breakdown financially of everything you're supposed to pay I remember the couple of times like not questioning and just check in and they're like Oh. Will you know ninety dollars for this or read another forty dollars and I didn't really can check it because. You know you're there embarrassing. You're in front of everybody. So you just put it on a credit card. Don't think about it my leader experiences I really questions each charge went through it and so I. Think you WanNa, make sure you know what you're being charged for. You're prepared for the physical process, the different stages of IVF and also you. Know what your insurance is going to cover and what you're going to have to pay the CO pays at up. So when you're going to your IBM DR almost every day during the week think of Thirty Dollar Co pay at least three times a week and that starts to add up throughout the month hosted idea impacter marriage my poor husband I love him. He is. I'm very lucky that he grew up. His father wasn't surgeon. His mom was a nurse and he was very comfortable with the whole medical aspects. Thank God because I have a master's degree and China understand that medication schedule and how to administer some of those medications just was always over my head. So he really handled that part of it. It's very hard because of all your moods and of course you. Know my husband felt bad. Sticking me with needles every day but I will say I'm very blessed in the fact that with everything we've gone through it's really mean our marriage stronger whereas I think it could very easily tear people apart I've heard you know some women have had do all the shots and everything by by themselves and you know you have to decide in your marriage, what I B. F is GonNa look like for you. But for us, you know we really tried to be open with all of our communication and our feelings. We have avow that we took good bad and ugly, and that's just what we have stopped to did your husband experienced an emotional toll absolutely and I think the man doesn't get as much recognition throughout the any infertility process and it's very hard. It was very. Hard on him. So not only is he having to with shots and follow this medication regimen, but he's also going through the roller coaster of emotions getting excited. The possibility that we could be pregnant than the two times that we were than losing the child early on. Then he's gotTa take mean to have the procedure to get the tissue remove and really he didn't have the luxury of being able to. Break. down. Because he had to be the strong silent one there for me is there anything that you would have done differently with IVF and are there any areas in which you could have said money order to avoid your eventual bankruptcy? With Ivy F I feel like I really could have saved money if I would have been more cognizant in the early stages of. How many visits I was GonNa have a week those copays, and then after desk when they're telling me, I, owe this instead of just. Sitting, down and talking to the financial resource person there and really looking at it because you I assume that all the charges were legitimate later on when I look through the bills and I, you know was going through what should be covered There were discrepancies and so if I had taken the time to really see what I was being charged, why and sit down with someone I, think I could have saved a lot of money up front I want to talk about fostering. Now, what should listeners know if they are considering fostering? If you. Want, to go that route and right now we're in our adoption classes through Florida which I have to say I've been very impressed with the system down here. They say immediately in your orientation class, the difference like there is not fostering to adopt down here there is fostering or adoption. If you're fostering the goal is reunification. So most likely those kids are going to go back to their biological parents or another family member. It takes eighteen months for parental rights to be terminated. So even though you have that child in your house, you're technically not making decisions for that because they are wards of the state. Adoption through what was foster care means those parental rights have been terminated. But they will tell you they don't have young healthy kids available for adoption. Most of those kids are older an every child in foster care. up for fostering up for adoption from fostering has trauma, and so if you are looking for young kids, it's better to go through the foster portion. Kind of hope that parental rights get terminated at New Penn maybe adapt and later on but it takes three years than if you go through adoption where they are predominantly older and they have a lot of trauma. What toll did fostering take on you emotionally physically and financially, it changed my life in a lot of ways I can't say I would not make the choice that I did because I love those girls. Being apparent for five months was very eye-opening because even though I've been a teacher and assistant principal on iep chair, I didn't really get it until I was on the other side of it, and so that experience led me to write a multiple books. We got to be parents for five months, but it was very stressful but rewarding. The hard part is, is we were parents and once your parent, it doesn't shut off. So even now I still think the girls you know I still have dreams about them I still WANNA. Know you know if they're okay because we lived for them for five months they were our worlds also opened my eyes to the system and just how it's not necessarily ear to support. The child and their best needs, and that was very hard for me is to to experience that. So it was just it was very, very eye opening. Financially you know our grocery bill went from one, hundred, twenty, five dollars a week she'll like three hundred. The first weekend may have the girls they had super lice. We had to go to a clinic twice financially adjust devastated US emotionally it's still something that's very hard for us. Even four years later did fostering impact your marriage. Greatly. Anytime you're you're parenting and I think most. People know like you're you know you have you really get to know your partner when you get to know their parenting style how we would discipline the children U. Different decisions like that. It was eye opening. We had some pretty rob fights because then you're short on sleep, you're just going through the motions but. I can say ultimately at the end you know going through all of it. We were there in it made our marriage stronger but there's no one else that understands what we lost aside from my husband and I. Hey infertility warrior, it's heather. This episode of beat infertility is brought to you by me regular listeners of the show know that I struggled during my infertility journey with everything from finding the right clinic to advocating for protocol customized to my body to allowing infertility to consume my entire existence and everything in between in other words I've been been where you are. Now that I'm on the other side and the interviewed hundreds of other warriors and fertility experts, I've discovered the fastest way to realize your dream of becoming a parent is to get educated. Regain hope build resiliency, learn self advocacy skills and partner with someone who's been there whether you're an infertility Newbie or a seasoned veteran it would be my honor and privilege to provide as one client. Put it unwavering support with fully engulfing and genuine empathy. If. You'd like to learn more or schedule a free thirty minute call to discuss how I can support you during your infertility journey. Go to beat infertility dot co slash. Hope now back to the show. What emotional toll did fostering take on your husband he's still our five year old Harley. was really are baby. Loved her so much. It's so much I dedicated my book to her. He still has a hard time seeing little blonde girl. Sometimes, he will break down if something triggers that for him. It's really really hard because you know we thought they were ours. We thought she was ours and we still love her very much and. Things remind my husband of her and he breaks down and we talked about it and we reflect on you know the good times and tried to. Move Forward. Is there anything you would have done differently and are there any areas in which you could have saved money? I could have saved a lot of money when we were in the fostering experience the little girls they came to us we have three days. To get set up for them being part of our household, they came with one bag between the two of them I think one toothbrush may be one outfit each. So we bought everything and you get a stipend for fostering, but it's nothing and it doesn't come until the end of your second Matz. So within the first month and a half, we were out thousands of dollars. In if I could go back, I would've reined in spending and not try to give them maybe everything they wanted everything I wanted to provide still provide a nice comfortable living but not spend so much. What final advice would you give to someone who is considering fostering read the chapter really now what you're getting into, we were very naive I can say this time rounds were having. Experienced and I wish, I. would have had the kind of training I'm getting now upfront. because. We really just thought. that. It was going to be easy and that most people in the system in the best interest of the children and unfortunately they're not I want to talk about adoption. What should listeners know if they are considering adoption the great thing about all the options for adoption is most sites you goes to the very clearly specifically, almost overwhelmingly list the process for adoption in the costs. So you need to know what options are you considering if you're considering international adoption, you need to know that you're going to need to agencies you're going to need a local agency and you're gonNA need an agency that works with specific countries they're. Only specific countries we in the United States out from at this point, each country has their own stipulations. So I put that in my book where they can see like you have to be married for a certain number of years you have to make X. amount of income you have to be this age it's very, very specific criteria whether you choose international or domestic you WANNA know there's a ton of paperwork that you're gonNA have to complete it so much. It's very overwhelming but again, they break down each portion of the process domestic adoption. If you're looking, you can either go traditional or agency assisted knowing that traditional means white. A white child and that's over fifty thousand dollars or for agency assisted, which is usually a child of color that is about forty, four, thousand dollars throughout the whole process. What toll did adoption take on you emotionally financially, it's a lot even get started. So for the adoption process whether it's international or domestic, you start off having to do a fee to even submit your application. So when you're starting off in the whole at one, hundred, fifty or three, hundred dollars little frustrating unlike with fostering where they do a home study for you. With adoption, you still have to have a home study it can't be it has to be a year older so like we had one done through foster care but because had passed, it expired and then the home study itself was gonna cost two thousand dollars through Catholic charities up hard because you're starting off you're not really seeing your progress and you're putting out all this money. So that's where you want to know what it's GonNa Cause even get the application in in the beginning. In the middle and the end and to really see if you have the finances to go all the way through with that process, Ho did adoption impact your marriage it was a roller coaster because you get your hopes up, you get excited. So it I you know I talked to the agencies in, we were going to adopt special needs from China. We got all excited got everything set off all the paperwork filled out, and then we were denied due to depression his anxiety in Arawak. Acids lying around. So that's another blow because you feel like something's wrong with you that you can't be viable with domestic adoption I. Feel like at that point, we were kinda going through the motions. Because in the middle that we went to embryo adoption and embryo option again is specific process is like going through I via. So we got really excited when you get to see all the profiles and you get to choose your embryo they tell you like the grade and talk you through and you get to see the mother and the father in their history, and so that was exciting we made a date nine out. Of that, then you go through the idea process, which is more miserable because you have no retrieval. So you're like all those hormones, all those emotions, and then you don't get any release and then you go through the process of having them inserted in I can say, no, that doctor was very for me. There was not a connection to him are embryo adoption that made it very hard and then when it didn't work. Not only where we out eight thousand dollars which you have to pay up front. The day I found out the embryo didn't take I was told by the doctor it was because of my weight and so that was a big blow that was really defeating in that process did your husband experience an emotional toll of course I mean he he experienced emotional toll all the way through not one that he was ever open about and really put at the. Forefront, but you know each time there is excitement there was torture with the process there was waiting, and then there was ultimately disappointment and so that that takes a toll on you after a while. Sometimes, it was hard for us to consider keeping going like to explore anymore of these options we had to really at some point give it some time because we just weren't there emotionally. Is there anything you would have done differently with adoption and other any areas in which you could have saved money. I, feel like with A. I kinda jumped in really fast. So it was almost like three options ended up going at once and I wish I had done a little more research before each process end. So that's what I would recommend to other people and that's why I wrote the book because they want you to know what you're getting into what you're signing up for. If I had. Her hands thoroughly research everything in the breakdown before letting my heart, lead me into this is this must be this must be the chance I better jump on it and get all this paperwork done. I know I could have saved a lot of money. So the embryo adoption really crushed us because that was eight thousand dollars. You just handover upfront in that that really really hurt us and I thought that was going to be a successful due to their positivity rate but it just did not work out for us so I wish I would have research everything more carefully what final at vice would you give to someone who is considering adoption? It's funny because we just had our most recent class. Never say now. Just. Say Not right now. So it's interesting where we started in thinking the kind of child we wanted to adopt you know because your ass, the gender, the age profile you might end up in a completely different place. I never thought regionally when we got the two girls I, never thought I would have girls I always wanted boys I always wanted a African American boy. If I was going to adopt that completely changed, we had white girls, and now you know we're considering a teenager are to with special needs and so. He just really wanted to explore what you're open to yourself in husband. Or Your partner why is it that you want if you want a baby that is healthy you wanna go through domestic adoption. And that's where you just have to know that at the end even with all the money spent the parent, the biological parent could change their mind. If you're open to giving fostering try you might end up with a younger child, but they will all already been through trauma. If you want to go through international adoption, you just WanNa make sure that you meet all the restrictions for the country that you're looking at and know that you're GonNa have to pay all those fees and travel over there and just really look explicitly at everything and determine what is the best fit for you. But know that you might end up on your journey in a completely different mindset than when you started what did your experience help you realize? It. Helped me realize that he. Is more important than anything. I can honestly say right now that I am in the best place emotionally in my life now and I'm happier than I've ever been because I learned that my piece is my priority. That's why I gave up my you know filing for bankruptcy was almost ring in a way because I was able to quit my six figure job and move to my dream place of Florida and you know now even though I don't have my girls or I don't have the child I thought I wanted. I'm still living in my dream house in my dream state loving my job and just enjoying my life and I can honestly say if it happens and we ended up with a child through adoption this time I'm so excited I know that child or children will be meant for me. But if it doesn't work out, it's not gonNA. Rock my life the same way because I am grounded in my piece. What are the next steps for you in your journey? So it's pretty cool. Down here we're getting all this training. So we have our last adoption class this week, and then we go to our home study and the home inspection, and they have what's called heart galleries down here in Florida. So you can see the children that are available for adoption, and so I would say about three months out from being able to be potentially matched with a child. How can friends and family support someone with infertility? Really. Know what you're talking about when you give advice, please just don't give advice randomly just how the person you love them and you're there and whatever they need your there. It's just it's really hard. It's a really hard journey ends. It's interesting because now I, look at my facebook feed and I see all these friends who were having infertility struggles when I was at different points in my journey and they all have kids now and they looked so happy and. If you are someone who's had infertility issues and you got your happy ending please also don't forget about those of us who haven't because it's so hard and so I would just say just love don't give advice just say I'm here how can I help support you? Is there anything else you'd like to add about affording infertility without going bankrupt heather I. think that you as a fertility coach I'm seeing some things that you've offered about helping people financially I would say seek out of resource or someone who can help you because it can be very overwhelming and you might WanNa have third perspective that's able to help you toggle through all the financial options and the process who can really help you break down what it's GonNa cost and if it's affordable for you. To wrap up this episode, what words of hope would you offer to someone who is still on their infertility journey? Your is not over you may not know how it's going to end. It may not end the way you envision it but your story is your story and has power fall, turn it into your message and know that your piece is more important than anything and you don't need a certain outcome to have that piece Krissy. Thanks so much for coming back on the show I. appreciate it. Thank you so much for having me Heather, and for everything you do for all of us infertility warriors. Thank you for listening to beat infertility join our free private support community at beat infertility dot co Ford's slash APP. If you find yourself meeting additional support visit our pace programs that beat infertility dot co Ford Slash Pope you. If you'd like your story to be considered for future episode, please fill out the form at beat infertility dot com Ford slash contact until next time.

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BONUS 283: Male Perspective About Male Factor Infertility

Beat Infertility

37:48 min | 4 months ago

BONUS 283: Male Perspective About Male Factor Infertility

"Welcome to beat infertility a podcast or we get real about infertility Empower you to take back control and provide you with hope for the Future Ready. Here's your host fellow infertility Warrior Heather human. Welcome to bonus episode 283 today's guest is Aaron Kahan an infertility Warrior and co-author of navigating the road of infertility Thursday. We will be discussing male Factor infertility from a man's perspective. You can find navigating the road of infertility online on Amazon package is always don't forget to visit our website for more information about this episode at beat infertility. Take Alison Krauss. Hi Aaron, welcome to the show. Hi. Thanks for having me. I've interviewed your wife Chrissy several times, but I want to hear about you. How old are you? What do you do for a living? And what do you do for fun? Sure. I'm thirty-three years old. I'm an educator and author also aspiring broadcast journalist kind of like yourself. I like to read I like to write I do wrong. A lot with voice over stuff online. It's just a hobby of mine. But you know, I'm also a cyclist which is a a new-found hobby relatively a healthy human being I'd like to thank God. Did you always want to be a parent? I did actually yes ever since I lost my father a very young age. I wanted to be a dad. How did you learn about your own infertility? And what was that moment life for you? It was about six months after received went off of her birth control, but we've decided to have kids they say, you know, wait six months and after that but you're still having some issues contact somebody else. So we waited six months after Christmas Eve went off her birth control. We did get pregnant at first but that was our first miscarriage and that's when we started like look into the idea that maybe one of us is having some issues. I went to my urologist I was diagnosed with varicocele, which is a very best vacations in your testicles. That is the foremost cause of male infertility off. And we'll obviously be getting into that later today. But let's talk more about your infertility story Chrissy again has told the story before from her perspective off, but I'd love to hear it from your perspective when we started to try to get pregnant. Honestly thought it wasn't going to be an issue for us. We we thought it was going to be you know, a simple nice and easy months later where it is, you know get a pregnancy test and Christine will be pregnant and everything's going to be fine. It was a kind of a shock to us after her getting off of her birth control and trying and trying and just nothing happening. There was a shock to us. And so when we started to do some research, I never thought this is going to be an issue. There's a little it was a little mind-boggling because you kind of just expect to word for a human beings we procreate that's what we do, but when it doesn't work for you it gives you like this different idea of like Amy, maybe there's actually something wrong with me. So what we did was we song With the process of IVF, which is a very harrowing experience. You've never done it. It's rough because it involves a lot of injections and hormone treatments. It can be if you're squeamish. It can be a real tough time cuz you only have like so much real estate that you're working with when you're injecting the hormone shots and after a while you start to bruise up and it's not a pretty sight. And then what the hormones do to you emotionally I can tell you Chrissy was understandably kind of like hair on fire crazy for a little while because of all the juices that were running through her and we did I believe seven rounds of IVF over the course of four years. None of them worked after a while. We were just like, you know what this is just not going to happen for us. So we decided that we would start to try to adopt and that was its own nightmare. It's been a crazy ride. Can you tell us a joke? More about the adoption part absolutely Christian are both Educators. We decided that we would best serve kids with special needs wage to place so we wouldn't just be going through the regular adoption process. We decided to go through the Arc of Baltimore, which is a program that Services the needs of kids with special needs. So that was like an extra forty six hours of training where we had to learn it. You know, we were CPR certified we were taught how to watch channel kids with PTSD. The autism certainly was also part of the training after we did that 46 hours of training. We kind of got the call one day where they said the adoption agency said that they had two two girls five and seven sisters who were in need of a home and the box that we had checked for this age. Was that we weren't going to be like a revolving door foster home. We wanted to adopt. So it was like we made it very clear that we weren't going to be doing like, you know, a new kid every 6 months or anything like that. It was like if if we're going to take some kids into our home it's going to be a permanent situation. So we got these two girls thinking that they would be our daughters effectively legally speaking a couple of weeks later. We were told by the adoption agency. Hey now, we're trying to reunite them with their mom and their mom was in and out of jail heroin addict. She had already gone to prison for abuse month or two daughters effectively. We were kind of like floored a little bit. We still wanted to see tried her best to make this living situation as permanent as possible, but we were kind of railroaded because we were not fond of the idea of weekly visits with the biological mother because they were was having a real job. Impact on the youngest girls mental state she already suffered from PTSD and just so many other issues that were caused of being born. They basically he's a good baby. This is with Mom were causing her to kind of regress. It was rough and we made our voices heard we even like Chris used her Cloud as an as an administrative educator and bolts need to get meeting with the head of the Department of Social Services. It was just so obvious that this lady did not care about our concerns like at all. She just sat there walk across the table just with this big S eating grin on her face just and just just just like you guys just went on for days to call Decatur didn't you? They're not your daughters just don't think of them like that anymore and we were just like, oh, we're in a broken system, right? So it was just that when it was rough. And so basically we had him for about five months and Department of Social Services after we met Which is loud and clear decided that we were no longer a good fit for the girls and they kind of just took him away from us because we were too vocal. I'm so sorry to hear that story. It's awful every time I hear it for anybody who wants to hear Chrissy's side of things. I have a link in the show notes to her episodes. Let's transition into the topic that we're here for today, which is male Factor as you mentioned before you're an educator not a doctor but you've been asked many questions over the years about male infertility Thursday. We're going to tackle those questions today. Let's start with how common is male infertility male infertility is actually extremely common. It's about 7% of all men may have some form of infertility whether it be environmentally caused or you know, an inherited situation. But yeah, 7% of all men that's about two hundred ninety million or so dead. What are the possible causes of male infertility the most common cause is varicocele which is varicose veins that are that grew inside of your testicles that's really hard to detect and often times that it starts out like very early on in a man's life and if it goes undetected, you know after a while the damage is kind of already done and you can't really reverse it. You mentioned this is something that you had did you ever have a corrective surgery? I did. Yes. I had a varicocelectomy was a quick outpatient surgery. I went under for maybe like an hour or so while the the doctor kind of they they they they cut you open like the pelvic line kind of like drag the the veins out that way it can be helpful. It can certainly. The damage that's that's been happening, but it doesn't really reverse the damage. It's kind of impossible. I know that people with this condition are typically tested again six months later dead. Did you have any Improvement? I did I had about 23% motility which wasn't the worst of the diversity but it's still not great. I am from 23 to I believe like 32% motility, you know, it's better again not great, but it's better. You talked a little bit before about this, but our people typically born with male infertility. Our genes a factor genes are a factor. Yes one hundred percent like that that can happen. It's inherited from the male side like Joe pass it on to you and it's been happening a lot more recently with the Advent of assistive of pregnancies that we've got going on. If you're a child of IVF and you're a male you should get yourself tested because that's a big part of what the problem is is that they're finding that with the the way that we assist in in the pregnancies is starting to have like a negative impact on the ability of birth. For the if you if you have a son his ability to procreate is absolutely affected. What are the symptoms of male infertility that men should be looking up for there are a ton of different symptoms wage. If you don't necessarily know what you're looking for, you might you might miss it a big one is that you can actually see without having to go to a doctor or anything like that is is if you have a lower volume of sperm or flu age, if you're not ejaculating much that's definitely a sign you want to look out for that. That's probably the most preventable like the most observable thing that just like the average guy can check for there's also like there's blood in your in your state and your statement which have happens. That's also something that you can be that can be detected. But other than that like it's unless you're like trying to get pregnant with your significant other and it's just not working like it's a little difficult to look out for and a lot of guys don't want to think that that's something that they have to worry about. They just think that hey it's just not work because that's what that's what we as humans do. Especially in this day and age it's something you gotta look out for check with your urologist try to start checking, you know, relatively early because like I said earlier after a certain amount of time less specially like varicocele or environmental factors. The damage isn't really reversible. It's already there and it's going to stick with you. Did you try any other treatments any medications or supplements to improve your fertility God? Yes, what are the IVF treatments that we had was when they're administering the hormonal shots to Chrissy. They are also giving they were giving me medication to Kris effectively like a good flow to that area of your body. And it also was It was supposed to supposed to anyway increase your motility. There are a bunch of different types of medication for that. It just depends on what works for you off, but it's just, you know, some pills to take nice and easy. It's not nearly as rough of a journey for a guy than it is for a girl. Can you tell us a little bit more about the other options in addition to the dog? And you took a big part of it is environmental like changing your environment. You want to stop drinking alcohol. Does that has a huge impact on your ability smoking weed is also frowned upon to make sure you're just firm way less modal. You also want to avoid leaving your laptop on your lap for a long period of time. I that was definitely something that I did as a kid. I thought that it was going to be an issue. But that's that's that's a huge problem. There is also like I said the pills that you take to increase your sperm motility certain diets that you're supposed to be on like high and fiber diets stuff like that as far as that goes for guys. I mean like there's not really a whole lot else because it's a way more simple mechanism that we're working with than the female counterpart. I know a lot of guys aren't real anxious and eager to go to a doctor to be checked for male Factor. So why don't you take us through the physical examination so people understand wage Going to be like yeah sure. So you under your urologist you want to go to a specialist because there's the people who are going to serve you best. It's kind of like any other physical exam where they pull your drawers down. And and it's Jack you for varicocele. It's actually very easy to find for urologist. It was it was kind of funny because my urologist I got into the exam room and she she you know, I I pull us down and she was just like just immediately started, you know, cutting the testicles trying to figure out what was going on and she was just like immediately was just like, oh very good steel. You've got like three right there. I was just like, oh, okay. What and that was the first I had ever heard of such a thing. So it was just shocking especially how fast she was you just got in there was just like, oh man. Yes three varicocele veins right there. That's causing all your problems. Unfortunately, there is no way to tell when those developed basically having any idea as to how much damage they had done over time was kind of impossible at that point. It was kind of an eye opener. I totally understand not wanting to get naked for a doctor. That's that's never a fun experience. But if you're concerned about your ability to procreate you're definitely going to want to just kind of like bite the bullet and get in there cuz and and get in there soon, you know early early detection is the key to follow-up questions to that. Do you believe that people should see a reproductive or ologist or any urologist? And then the second question is are there any blood tests that men should expect as far as I know any urologist would be fine a productive urologist would be ideal certainly but if none are available a regular urologist would do just fine. They still knew what to look for and as far as blood tests go they don't really dead. That because that's the it's the causes of male infertility aren't really found in the blood like that not certainly in the same way that they're detected as women because the hormone that kind of like dictatorship the reproductive process and women it's not prison at all in in men. So you don't really do blood tests for that. You do have to ejaculate into a cup and they basically take that off of sample and that's how they're best able to check your motility and the functionality of your sperm. Can you take us through a semen analysis? Sure, what they do you offer you have to you know, go into the back room. You have to ejaculate into a cup and once you've done that they take that to the microscope effectively what they do is they shift through all the brake fluids. They try to find a good sample of your actual spur. There was not a whole lot to work with they there was just not a huge sample sized, basically birth. I believe the number is between 40 million and a hundred million sperm in a sample is like a regular amount. That's a normal healthy amount and anything below that age is considered, you know low normal or just low. I was around five million in my sample. So, you know, it was not not much to work with what they do is they they they get off their individual sperm under the microscope to try and get an idea of what you're working with. So they checked the morphological aspect which is just just to say like the shape and size package which is a huge Factor cuz they want to be a streamlined as possible. So if you're looking at like a more oblong shape or a less than regular head size going to be working against you and so what they all said was they checked to see how modal your sperm is. And so that's to say if it's not moving around a whole lot that's going to be working against you as well. And so what the doctors do is well, they've got your guy's name. A microscope they're looking for like all these little points to make sure that they're able to successfully diagnose what your primary issue is. A lot of the problem is has to do with like there's a logical aspect of your sperm which again is like the shape and size. If you're looking at something that's too big can be considered like a bloated sperm that's never going to amount to a successful pregnancy. If it does end up being a successful pregnancy. You're you're probably looking at some developmental issues for your child. So that's definitely something to look out for you talked about varicocele repair, but what other treatment options are available including ways to extract more sperm so very cuz you're like to be certainly works. There's also the pills that you take our baths and just like vitamins, you know, nice and easy regimen of pills and you're supposed to take them for a course of I believe it was three months and then they go back and they they check to make sure That's doing something for you cuz it doesn't always work for everybody kind of just like a not a last resort necessarily but it's kind of just like well, maybe this will help you get to where you need to go, but it doesn't it doesn't work for every month. And again the environmental factors just if you're really trying to get pregnant and you want to get that done you gotta stop drinking alcohol. If you're a weed smoker knock it off for a solid six months because the way that dog sperm works is that whatever your your intake is, you know, whether it be just like alcohol or weed or anything like that that can have an effect on your sperm motility for the next like I believe it was like six months after your last drink or after your last pipe full week. It has a long-lasting effect. So you really gotta knock that stuff off if you want to get pregnant and it's not working out for you. How do you move forward once you're diagnosed as infertile? It depends on who you're with I think if you want to just be able to manage how you think about yourself in that way the way that I did it was wage. I kind of just like sat down and just thought to myself like, you know at my less of a man. Am I somehow defective as a human being you kind of just have to sit with those thoughts while and just process them deal with them in a way that is healthy. Definitely. Don't be a denial of it all and certainly don't turn to drug use or you know alcohol use cuz that's not going to help you. It can be a little rough at first because you really think to yourself. I'm just supposed to be able to do this. This is what humans do we are fruitful and we multiply just realize that you're not alone. There are a lot of other guys out there who are going through the exact same thing. It's nobody's fault. Really. Hey infertility Warrior, it's Heather. This episode of beat infertility is brought to you by Me In addition to hosting this podcast. I'm an infertility coach who supports Warriors just like you regular listeners know that I struggled during my journey home. To make the decisions and advocate for myself as a result of took 5 years $75,000 three egg retrievals seven embryo transfers for miscarriages and two stillbirths before I finally had my daughter in other words. I've been where you are now that I'm on the other side. I hope people like you own navigate the complicated world of fertility treatments and other paths to Parenthood. I help people like you make scientifically-based well-informed decisions about your next steps rather than relying on Doctor Google and Facebook groups. I help people like you prepare for appointments identify opportunities to ask questions and advocate for yourself. I help people with like you become an active member of your fertility treatment team rather than blindly trusting the decisions that are made for you. I help people like you become a parent fast birth. I only have a couple of slots open and they've generally fill up fast. So if this is the help you need reach out today, tell me your story and learn more about how I can support you during your infertility Journey at beat and fertility. Now back to the show. I'd like to hear about how this whole process impacted you emotionally and financially so emotionally it was a little rough at first. I definitely thought there was something wrong with that was at the same time. It was kind of just like this is you know par for the course for my life. I feel like I've never really walked the the most beaten path when I talked with Chrissy about it my wife she just you know what I'm dealing with the same thing here. So there's nothing wrong with us. There's we're we're okay. This just may not be something that we're able to do. So that's why we decided to you know, adopt and stuff like that but like financially it cost us about $40,000. I believe out-of-pocket overall with the treatment of IVF and we had pretty incredible Insurance actually which handled a lot of it if we didn't have that is awesome of insurance as we did. It probably would have cost us around $80,000. But the one biggest Financial hit that we took was when we did embryo adoption, which is to say when you already dead. Like an embryo that's been made by approving couple who have like already donated their embryos and every single one of the couples that had received an embryo from this particular couple had result of twins without exception all of them that turned out to be an eight thousand dollar swing in a mess. That was the biggest financial aid that we had just like, you know all at once $8,000 that ended up in Iraq effectively did that impact your relationship at all. Yes, and no, I mean we've talked about this before it's like we're married. We took our valves we're never going to leave each other. You can't be mad at them in person cuz it's not their fault. It's nobody's fault. This isn't we're not purposely trying to not get pregnant. It's just life. We certainly had some Christ sessions over it, but we thought were fought about it. We never had any tips or anything like that where I just thought to myself like, well, I'm if you can't bear me a child. I'm going to leave you like that's just ridiculous that would that would never happen home. Just not who I am. That's not who Chrissy is either. What's one of those things that we're we're going to get through and we're gonna get through it together. What about the financial strain? How did you guys work through that part just go off work every day. We have both agreed that we were going to try as hard as we could to get this done go through IVF and the embryo adoption we both agreed to it. So it was a little rough on the wallet, but it was at the end of the day was a decision that we made as two consenting adults. Just trying to get pregnant. It was a little rough. We actually went through bankruptcy which was way more complicated process than I ever would have thought. Honestly that was kind of crazy. You gotta go down to like the courthouse and stand in front of a panel of people while they assess whether or not you going through bankruptcy is a viable option for you to bite the bullet and pay off the the extreme amounts of money that you owe but we what your bankruptcy was successful that was a little rough, but we have you know, a fresh start we decided no more i v e After seven, rounds, we're good. Now it's it's on to adoption down here in Florida as taboo as infertility still is to talk about I feel like it's even more taboo to talk about money factor. Why is that do you think guys are guys they just want to believe that their stuff is working and there's this really like. Strange and archaic mode of thinking that because if you're not as motile as as you should be your somehow less of a man. I honestly when I first heard about that, I was just like what no was just if medical issue has nothing to do with you as a as a human being that it's that's got nothing to do with it. But I was I was raised by a doctor and a nurse. So I I kind of had a a different perspective on that sort of thing, but I am really talked to some guys over the course of four or five years. Now who were just like, how did you how do you look at yourself in the mirror in the morning would knowing that you can't get a girl pregnant and I'm just like that's a really cool. Thing to think that I wouldn't be able to do that just considering it's nothing to do with you as a person. It's just kind of like they're a whole bunch of mitigating factors there. It's it's taboo because guys want to think that no matter what it's they're going to work. It's kind of along the same lines as like erectile dysfunction. It has nothing to do with you as a person. It's just you know, you've got a lot of medical factors that are stacked on top of each other that kind of results in this one thing it's rough to talk about but once you start to talk about it the floodgates kind of open a little bit and you're and you're like I can actually took down have a rational conversation about this and you'll you'll find that like there are a lot of other guys out there that are going through the exact same thing and even though it's it's rough and even though it's cause some issues whether it be in your relationship or how it's going to affect your life going forward. It's okay. There's nothing wrong with you. It's not like you're doing this on purpose. It's because of XYZ wage. Found that a lot of guys have a hard time talking about it. But once they start to talk about they're just like oh my gosh, I can actually have a conversation about my feelings. That's incredible. How have guys found you in a past and what type of support have you provided them? We've never been shy about our situation. We wrote a book about it. In fact, so like it's not anything that I myself have ever been shown no talk about necessarily in the past guys have have found me through reading our book or most of the most of the time it's because their wife made them read the book Navigator of infertility, but you know, I've been on the news internationally and nationally speaking guys have found me that way cuz when we talked about the book on like HLN or something like that see with me cuz I would get emails from guys out there who just like, oh my god. Did you really just go on the news and talk about the fact that you're having infertility issues. I think that I am also having infertility issues and the name Like all shy about it and like I'm not, you know, I don't necessarily want to put anything out there, but I think I might be going through the same thing. So basically I'm just like, hey man, just go ahead and talk to me about it. It's fine cuz like this there's nothing you can say that I haven't already, you know heard or been through email guys back and forth. My friends a couple of my friends have since also gone through the IVF process and she didn't even want to like broach the idea until they saw that you know, we were putting out this book and we were we were talking about it with everybody and they were just like, okay so we have to go through IVF, but that's okay right? I'm just like honey, it's fine. It's it happens to a lot of people want in a couple's I have have gone through exactly what you're going through it helps them to know that they're not so alone and they're not as I said earlier a lien dated as they really think they have that that they are. It just becomes an issue of they think that they're suffering in silence when they don't have to be it's, you know, nice to be kind of like a show dog. Kryon, obviously, it's different for everyone. But have you found that most guys are more comfortable talking to a friend or someone they don't necessarily know like you they prefer to talk to somebody that they don't necessarily know even though they're they're trying to be more open about it. They don't want everybody on surface of the planet to know what they're going through. They just took a you know, an ear tube and definitely helps if you're kind of like you're outside of their Social Circle, that's definitely something to point out is that yeah, most of the time they need to talk to a friend. They want to talk to somebody who's outside of their Social Circle who has experienced dealing with the the mail and fertility Factor. I've done a lot of interviews over the last five plus years and one of the things that I've found is that men and women are in different places in terms of how much to share with other people. Tell me about your experience with that as well as the experience of others that you've talked to you guys are definitely Less open to sharing that's just like that again that very archaic motive same thing where guys have to be like this Rough and Ready type situation. It's it's it's ridiculous. I feel like it's it's it's so outdated but it's still definitely the mode of thinking of a lot of young guys. If you're a guy and you're going through male infertility, there are lots of people to talk to their forums online where you can kind of like just have like an email chain back and forth It's kind of not too dissimilar from like I always say like maybe alcohol Recovery Group or something like that. There are many places, especially in the world of today when you have the internet as much so readily available as it is there are lots of people to talk to and there are not necessarily in your Social Circle there, you know, it's a nice safe space to kind of like vent to talk wage. Your frustrations but there there's just there's entirely too many guys going through this right now that are suffering in silence when they don't have to be there's plenty of people to talk to, you know, there's plenty of birth stories that are you know, just like yours, you're not the only one going through it. I talked about it and navigating the road of infertility are booked how you know, it's it was It was kind of eye-opening to me when I started to talk about this stuff with other guys in my Social Circle and they were kind of just like a man you don't talk about that and I'm just like, okay, whatever I'm going to talk about it. That's it's not that big of a deal to me off after it was funny cuz after I started talking about it with with my friends a couple of my guy friends came up to me after you know, they they've been married and trying to have a kid for at least a year and nothing was happening and they don't like it was kind of like they they came to me like almost with their tails like between their legs or they were just like, hey man, so the thing that you're going through now like looking over their shoulder like, you know, expecting somebody that wage Fountain they got you or whatever cuz they're just like us so what's the deal with my stuff? Is there something wrong with me? And I'm just like, okay. So thank you for coming to me. That's awesome. You you definitely want to see urologist want to see a specialist somebody who can effectively diagnose what your issues are cuz it could be something as simple as a varicocele situation like mine and that is relatively simple given the nature of what we're talking about or it could be like a genetic factor that you just you know, you're simply incapable of procreating which is also again, it's fine. It's there's nothing wrong with you. It's just life away and that's just the way it is. And so I've had a few conversations now with with some friends about that situation and it was it was funny. I actually a buddy of mine wasn't sure that he was willing to go through the IVF process with his wife cuz he was just like this chick stuff man. I don't know. I'm just like dude. Did you get yourself checked? Did you get yourself tested and so yep. On my advice you went to a neurologist who was just like oh, so there's something there's something wrong with the advice for he ended up taking that that regimen. I talked to you about earlier where they it's just a regimen of pills you take like vitamins and over the course of like six months you took those and now he's expecting twins. So it's like I'd like to say that I had a hand in that song What About men's comfort with their wives or you know female Partners talking about their situation to other people I share everything with my life. So it's definitely like a very archaic vote of thinking that like, if you're a guy that you've got to be like a a stoic male figure where you don't talk about your feelings, you know talk about any issues that you're having. You're just supposed to be a game in your all right all the time that's never gelled too well with me because it's just like life doesn't work like that, you know, or we're all human beings. Um, but a lot of the guys I talk to rep. They have a hard time talking with their wife about it weather wise about it because they think that they're supposed to be like the rock the completely unyielding force of Manliness. They're not allowed to have these conversations with their wives and I'm just like I'm telling you right now if you actually opened up your wife and talk to her about it. She would really appreciate it. It's not an easy situation to go through Thursday is just made that much harder by going through it alone. And if you just have a conversation with your wife about it, I'm telling you that that's going to be like a huge Boon to your relationship. It certainly has never steered me wrong. Just having a nice open conversation about your feelings and about how you're going to approach the situation going forward. How can a man's partner support them during this process just be there just a shoulder to cry on be open to the idea of maybe your your man's going to cry a little bit. Is that happens Thursday? Guys are allowed to cry too. If you want to be as supportive as possible. You just listen make sure that you're as open and and loving and forgiving as possible never try to play the game gave that's where you start to go off the rails. That's the the blame game is is useless and it's harmful. It doesn't get you anywhere. It certainly doesn't solve the problem. What about going to appointments with you? I know that I always appreciate my husband going to appointments with me, but does the reverse work? Yeah, absolutely again, it's you don't want to go through it alone. My wife went with me to all of my urologist appointments when we started trying to diagnose what was going on with us there was never an issue and she was glad to come, you know, maybe she would she would miss a couple of just because of work or what have you but otherwise she was she was fine with me just like I was right there with her through all of the IVF appointments unless I had worked to go to or something like that, but generally speaking we accompanied each other with throughout all the Applause. Is there anything you wish you had done differently? That is a good question. You know, no not really. I feel like the way that everything kind of panned out the way it was going to work. I don't see how doing anything differently would have changed anything cuz at the end of the day, we're still never going to have our own kids. It's just it's just not in the cards and maybe if I could change one thing maybe I would go back in time and tell my like twelve year old self to go see a urologist and figure out whether or not that was the varicocele was an issue, you know all the way back then but other than that, I can't imagine doing anything different like we've covered a lot of ground today. But is there anything else you'd like to add? Yeah. I just wanted to you know, say all your male audience members out. Don't be afraid to talk about it. It's not your fault. You're not doomed to suffer in in alienation and isolation. Just just to have a conversation. That's the first step to Healing mentally to wrap things up here. What words of Hope would you offer to male infertility Warriors? Sure, I mean, hey guys, every situation isn't like mine. There are certainly things you can do where you're able to help yourself. Definitely if you're out there and you're trying to get pregnant and it's not working out for you. It's okay. Everything is fine. You're not less of a man. You're a beautiful human being just the way you are. Don't ever let anybody tell you different Aaron. Thank you so much for coming on the show today. I appreciate it. Thanks for having me. Thank you for listening to beat infertility. Join our free private support community at beat infertility.com forward slash app. If you find yourself needing additional support wage visit our paid programs that beat infertility.com forward slash help you if you'd like your story to be considered for a future episode. Please fill out the form at beat infertility khong Co forward slash contact until next time. home

varicocele Chrissy Aaron Kahan infertility Alison Krauss Department of Social Services PTSD Amazon Christine Navigator of infertility heroin Facebook Amy Baltimore Decatur Iraq
Cultural Cognition of Scientific Consensus

Data Skeptic

31:47 min | 2 years ago

Cultural Cognition of Scientific Consensus

"Episode, two hundred thirty five. Welcome to data skeptic. A podcast about data science and fake news from an algorithm respect. Here's your host, Kyle polish coming to you from just outside Yosemite, national park. This is data skeptic on today's show. I interviewed Dan Kahan for meals, cultural cognizant project. A group of scholars interested in studying how cultural values shaped public risk perceptions related policy believes we explore some of the impure coal work that measures how people perceive new information in light of their existing beliefs. Dan con I'm a professor of law ecology at Yale Law School. You've done a number of different research projects involving kind of the study of how people understand science and take information from scientific experts and things along those lines. Before we get into your formal research statement, what got you interested in this line of inquiry web always been interested in gaps between expert and a general public understandings of policy related science earlier in my career, I focused more on criminalize use a gun control and death penalty, but here at yelling. Have made lots of Han tax with other scholars who had similar interests in the agenda. Just got broader towards all forms of policy related science. So I'd imagine there are some things you're, you know, gravity that there really isn't any debate about scientists pretty much set us up. What are some of the topics that people do have general resistance to the scientific consensus about dairy polarizing has the North Pole alcohol for the it's actually the case that there are many, many more issues that don't promote helpful polarization than that do, but people don't go to the highway to watch the cars going by without accident. There tension is called to the car crashes. People tend to fixate on the relatively limited number of forms of policy, relevant science that do by people in hotel round. The obvious example would be climate change, which is one of the most polarizing issues in US politics, but it is dispute to not about what we should do in response to climate change people with. Different values will almost certainly have different ideas about what the remedy should be. But instead it's a fight over with the facts are of climate change something on which there's plenty of scientific evidence, but there are other issues that are like this to nuclear power on his another example how the most polarizing issue on before climate change the effectiveness of the death penalty or gun control on those perennial issues, we can think of plenty of, although we don't tend to think of the numerous other ones that don't divide people on these grounds. The latter class definitely is larger. So when it comes to something like climate change, obviously, this is a well studied problem, but to really be an expert in it, you need to go through a lot of schooling and understand that data. Some people might claim that, well, it scientists who aren't distilling their information, their knowledge out to the public in an efficient or -ffective path. What are your thoughts on that point of view? I don't think that the model from the mouth of the scientists to the era of the citizen on his. Right for any issue on which there's policy relevant science. I don't think that the biologist did a better job explaining pasteurization of milk. For example, on the climate scientists undoing explain the greenhouse effect. The truth is that we always learn what science knows what's valuable to permit side. Our own peer groups are communities where we know who knows what about what I'm good at. Judge credibility people don't hear from scientists on any of these other issues. So I don't think the problem is that scientists are speaking clearly enough if that's what people think the problem is on the, that's the problem. Science doesn't move from the the scientists to the citizen except through many intermediary institutions on. So if there's something wrong with the consensus, not reaching people, it's those meet intermediary institutions probably are not operating waited. They should. How do we go about studying this empirically, what kind of research I wanna get into the background of the research conducted that helps us get a sense for how people do in don't process information. We. So we relied primarily on Enright working group. Two kinds of studies with the first consists really just observe as where will measure people's group outlooks, maybe their science literacy on the one hand, and then their views about the facts of one of these issues that divide people on cultural grounds on the other what you might expect to see if the problem was that people didn't know science was that people who are highest in science literacy are converging despite the birth identities. But in fact, the opposite is true as people become more science literate, they actually become more polarized in. That's not the pattern you would expect to see the difficulty where that scientists weren't speaking clearly enough. For example, the other kind of study that we do is experimental will test whether people credit or discredit a piece of information depending on whether if it's on with their punctual predisposition on an issue. We've even seen that people who are very good at math on, we'll have a lapse in their ability. If back they're given a problem. Where the answer is contrary to the cultural predispositions they will perform any better on that kind of math problem anymore. Fascinating. So they seem to have the analytical skill set, but there's something else cognitively going on. Is that right? Well, what happens is that people who are very good with numbers still have to rely on some intuitive sense that they've got the answer right before they move on. If they get the wrong answer, they think, well, maybe you're looking at this harder in what feel like they finally got the right answer. They move on field. Right? And I think with with this kind of problem, people are confusing kind of positive feeling they have when something fits righty. Allergy for the positive feeling happy. They've got the answer, right? So they give up too soon. I'm problems that require them to think hard in these studies. I know you've kind of broken down people into a couple of different categories for how the responses play out. Could you share a little bit about those labels, how design them measure for them, and so on. Typically, we use to different scales at toodle sales to measure what we call people's cultural worldviews. The two tales represent just attorney ways of seeing value in society. So one of them distinguishes between people who are relatively individualistic, who believe that individuals should be securing the conditions of their own flourishing without assistance from or interference by the collective versus people are more communitarian who believe, in fact, securing individual well-being Daba Gatien of the community and who who advocate that the policies take precedence over individual interest. That's one dimension did. The second is hierarchical versus a gal -tarian on somebody's hierarchical that person values having lots of rankings that are based on individual characteristics age in gender, even ethnishity if they're more gal -tarian than anybody should be able to tell them what to do just based on those kinds of characteristics. In that gives us a really strong platform foundation for studying people's perceptions of risk. People who have different combinations of values that scene will disagree about environmental issues on the one hand or market regulation issues on on the other on the disagree about public health issues like the vaccine prescribed girls. Now for school boys on the disagree about the impact of illegal drugs on people's health or on crime. We developed it by a essentially doing focus groups with individuals without have characteristics listening to them talk in. Basically the scale now is just a set of statements. Things like society has grown to soften feminine or something like this. That's on the higher utilitarian scale. In based on people scores, we can assign them membership to these different kinds of groups. That to me is the strongest way to approach these issues. But a lot of times too will just use right last, that's good enough or something like climate change. But when we really want to try to get. Macabre, hence used as framework. It also helps us link up scholars and other societies who couldn't measure whether they're their subjects are the members of the Republican or democratic carve you obviously. So it helps with that. I appeal to experts quite often if there's some big discovery. For example, recently, there's been a proposed proof of the Riemann hypothesis and I'm not qualified to evaluate if it's true or not. Yeah, yeah, we'll see where it goes, right? One of these comes out every so often. Well, that's really good because even experts have to divert other experts on something like that. Right. It's that's a great example. So they'll come appoint when they'll be the peer review process will take over and I trust the scientific method. I won't claim it's perfect, but it's the best system we have. So I do appeal to experts, but I take it from some of your research that the way in which people appeal to experts evolves based on who the expert is and how they're presented. Could you talk a little bit about the degree to which that impacts people's decisions? We call this the psychological dynamic coach mission, which refers to tendency of people selectively credit in discredit information. Our evidence in patterns that reinforce their cultural predispositions and it affects all manner of proof from arguments that people are making to their ability to understand data and also their assessment of the credibility of experts. I'm so it turns out that people will view a person who's highly credentialed as a scientist as being an expert on a particular topic like climate change or nuclear power conditional on that person's agreement with the position that predominates in people's groups or communities. The truth of the matter is that neither side is saying that they, that scientist isn't that science isn't authoritative for the beliefs that they have about these policy issues, but they're processing information about what science knows in a way that's skewed on her bias towards their forming in persisting in the beliefs that are common in their group on booming. They argue about something like climate change, knowing says, screw at the science through the scientists. Who cares what they believe they both say will science is on our side, right? It's kind of like nations go to war. They say, God is on our side. It's just not processing information information that they usually would use a m- not so much to understand the science because that's far beyond the capability in time that most is tab, but just to recognize who knows what about. About what in that kind of recognition is essential for science. I'm even scientists have to have it otherwise it wouldn't be a process of incrementally augmenting our knowledge. You can't start over from the beginning every time you have to be able to recognize what were you can rely on on in building scientific research program, for example. Well, ordinary people to they're really good, pretty good at recognizing who knows what about what it's only when you get one of these issues in which positions become entangled on with people's identities that you have this disablement really of their recognition capacity. So one of my goals, personally, I'd like to believe as many true things in his few false things as possible. And I think good path to doing that is following a sort of basin approach, and I know you've been able to frame some of your work in that context. Can you share your thoughts on a help people incorporate new information from a business perspective? Rubasinghe perspective shore. And when thing to say about that is the base basis theorem. Beijing process. It's more of Ristic. I mean, I'm sure you know that social scientists, psychologists in particular, have documented myriad ways in which people's information processing diverts from Beijing. But if you start with Beijing model, then you can pretty much understand just about any one of the defects in people's ordinary reasoning. If you compare how it doesn't fit with Beijing. I'm so forbe's here. I would just use the most basic understanding that when people get new information, they update their existing beliefs in proportion to how much more consistent. The new information is with one potential belief versus another right? How much more consistent it is. That's the likelihood ratio amazes right one one rendering basis is that prior odds times the like ratio equals the posterior odds in our where we focus on how people's group commitments generate conflicts among them over. The likelihood ratio or how much weight to give to the evidence. So people might see one in the Saint piece of evidence on, but give it different weight depending on what they think the outcome is that evidence supports, but this doesn't just affect science. We've done studies where people sense impressions will participate in this kind of pattern by to tell people that have the subjects that protests is at an abortion clinic in that the protesters are disagreeing with Roe v Wade and the other half of the protesters at a military recruitment center by people who don't approve of the former policy that excluded openly gay and lesbian people from the military and people with different values will disagree about whether some of the protesters are blocking into a building or hitting people with their signs and so forth. It all depends on what we tell them. The protest is about in how that corresponds with their values. You really see this line of motivated drive in how people process information when it comes to science, it's the same thing. People are. Looking at the cues that normally tell them what science knows and they're construing it knits by fashion. Make sense. It makes sense also helps us to see that. Although this dynamic affect science in a really profound way and threatens to prevent enlightened self government, it's not just a, it's not a process that rises in our assessment of science per se on this kind of dynamic happen in any kind of setting where people relying on actual information. Tell me more about that to me. I mean, facts and science. They might be technically different, but I think of them as both sources of truth. In what way do they differ? Well, that the example of the study I just gave you call. They saw protests the people weren't disagreeing about facts, but science will have much to say about whether a protest your block, somebody going into a building, people just form different impressions of what they were interpreting seeing on film. Those same groups are the ones that are disagreeing about climate change. I'm a what science says about the safety of nuclear power of west science. About the episode of HP vaccine. If you see that in fact, this process isn't unique to science. You're in a better position. I think to remedy if people even outside of the mains of science or disagreeing about facts, including the Wednesday taken with their own sense, impression, that's unlikely that the solution to the problem is to change, how do science or how it communicates Heinz. Listeners, are there any of you who haven't yet checked out brilliant dot org, if so, you gotta get over there, brilliant dot org, math and science done, right. You can use that site to help you master key ideas in math science, computer science, and a lot of other professional topics. So what is brilliant was not boring lectures. It's not dull hard to follow endlessly long content of courses. Brilliant is teaching platform that helps you learn through interactive problem solving courses. I've taken a bunch of these myself real and they're all designed to be entertaining, challenging and educational. Whether you're an ambitious student to professional or just a lifelong learner. Let's see. Let me scroll through the courses real quick and pick out one. You got a bunch of good ones, but today I wanna highlight science essentials, you know, there's a lot of data people who listen, sure, you know, sequel, you know, programming you machine learning. But if you wanna be a data scientist, you got to earn that second word sciences a method in brilliant sciences central's course, they'll teach you the. Scientific process, measurement matter, motion forces, energy, all the key basic concepts of science, any well rounded person should have this background, whether you just curious about the forces that govern our world or you're beginning journey to scientific greatness. There's no better way to build your understanding of science essentials than heading over to brilliant dot org slash data skeptic. That's brilliant, dot org slash data skeptic. So in one of the studies, you guys conducted your your co authors, you tested the hypothesis that cultural cognition shapes the perceptions of scientific consensus, and there's definitely an effect there. We can see in the paper. Could you share some details about the degree to which it impacts people's perceptions short on internet April, we did was have people assess the domain of expertise of people who were presented as being highly, credentialed scientists. And again, it turned out that where we told the subjects that scientists view. Consistent with the one in their their cultural group. They were highly likely to to rate that person as an expert on the issue. If we told them instead that the scientists have Gordon opinion opposed to the one that prevails in their group, then they will. That's not a scientist with expertise in this area on any effect size were very large. I'm so the group that is actually a skeptical about climate change, fifty six percentage points more likely to judge the person as an expert scientists in private if he or she took the if he took the position that prevailed in their group and that that was on both sides of the issue is similarly large effect sizes than something like power. So people are shifting from a decided, majority in their group rating the prisoners, an expert scientists in that domain to the position. No, he's not an expert. Scientists are domain depending on what they were told. The scientists believe Beijing incense, their priors were determining what wait to assign to the evidence. It wasn't that the evidence, the weight of the evidence was causing them to just prior attitudes or beliefs about the risking question. From my point of view, I guess I'll inject a little bit of my own personal thoughts here. I see that as a big cultural problem for us. I would like to think that people appreciate the scientific method not, you know, like I said earlier, not that it's perfect, but it's a good path to learning the truth in when people then choose to adopt beliefs that are contrary to that. I see it as a problem. Do you agree and you have you found any way we could maybe mitigate this. Sure. But I think again, it's it's important to understand this from inside the point of view of the groups that are disagreeing about what scientific consensus or disagree about issues that are attended by scientific consensus. I think it's wrong to believe at one group, trust science in the other doesn't impact. We've done studies that show that another thing. Another kind of fact on which people will be biased as how much their group as opposed to another group is open minded in reflective about scientific evidence. That's another one of the things on which people will become divided over what science knows. It is a problem when people have this, this kind of tendency, which we call cultural cognition unto credit evidence selectively based on its coherence with their their cultural predispositions. Because if people process information that way, they're never going to converge on the truth, no matter how much information you give them to think about it in the basin sense that they're determining the lighten the ratio or wait. To get to the evidence in a way that reflects their group already believes so they'll be stuck on these positions that are posed each other. It's not a truth convergent way to to make sensitive information. Although it is a kind of identity protective way of doing so, but it's not a conscious process. Either people don't people feel like they're following what they're going with. The kinds of intuitions they have about what science identify what science knows I'm, but in a polluted science medication, virement, those kinds of capacities are effectively disabled giving the wrong answer, even though normally give them the ranch. So how do you know? Is there anything science communicators should be doing that would maybe help mitigate some of the problems in convey more truth? Well, I think that it should be clear by now that just giving people more information of is not the solution. People have been credit that information or rejected based again on whether it's consistent with their cultural predispositions. With science communicators to be focusing on is the entanglement of these positions with people's identities. I think the best way to do that is to give people the very kind of information that usually used forget what science knows at what science knows about pasteurization of milk. What science knows about the medical benefits of getting rays, the risks of using cell phones. So they see other people doing things that events competence in the science when people are using scientific information to make important decisions about how to live. That's how other people learn what science knows. So you want to actually increase the proportion of impressions that they form in which people like them are using the science relative to the impressions they formed when they see their people inside their group, arguing with another group about what science knows that ladder kind of information is what launches them into the identity protective rather than the truth seeking kinds of information processing. So if you're in south. East Florida. For example, you should be able to find people who are within different opinion formation groups where using the science, whether they're developers, climate science with developers or business owners, or just ordinary people from their own housing association in they're all making decisions. It turns out based on the best information we have on climate change. If you show people doing that inside so much that they're arguing with them trying to give them a evidence, they're just acting in a way that attest to their acceptance of the validity of this evidence. That's I think the way to help people get back and sing on between their intuitions in what science knows. Gotcha. In on some of these, as you mentioned, there's a probably a wealth of mundane existence. We could give where certain scientific findings are not controversial at politically and we don't have these issues, but some of the key ones like gun control and stuff we've been talking about climate change was it inevitable that these would be. Shoes that would become politically polarized, or was it just the circumstances that certain people, uncertain sides decide to chase after these? I tend to believe that no technology is destined to have this kind of polarizing profile, but that's more of a conjecture than something I know for sure. It's something that we should be focusing on a lot more have issues become this way because it's a lot easier. I think to prevent issues from becoming this way than it is to untangle identity from positions on these issues. Once this dynamic takes place, but I'll give you an example with the HP back seen on the HP vaccine is for a disease that sexually transmitted on his the major problem. Cervical cancer is the only seen that the CDC has recommended beyond the statues for school in middle school enrollment on that, the states haven't uniformly adopted in what was different about HP vaccine was that it came to people's attention through a political process on the man. Factor of the vaccine was trying to excel rate how quickly schools would adopt HP vaccine requirements because it was in competition with another Parmaceuticals company that assume to come out with another HP vaccine. Normally, people find out about the vaccine from their doctors on those people that they trust, they say, will do what you say to do. But here they were seeing FOX TV one position in MSNBC take another in. So they understood these issues to be the ones that in effect where markers of or proof of their loyalty to their identity groups and at the very same, almost exactly the same time or just a little bit before this people weren't polarizing over another vaccine for sexually transmitted disease at crisis cancer, the on the BB hepatitis b vaccine. So the have feedback seen did come to people's attention through the normal route, not through legislatures debating whether to have a requirement, but through their doctors who. Got the information from public health authorities on that these axes, that made sense. So you can make a mistake if you if you're leading information about a new technology travel to people's awareness through these politicized channels rather than through the normal channels that they operate, where people who are transmitting information, they're not aligned with one side or another in these conflicts? Yeah. Make sense. When what wouldn't make sense body never learned the lesson that I mean, this is like a precious commodity. I, it's like a a precious instrument being sent for class mail wrapped in a newsletter. We have to do a lot more to protect the value of the science that we have. The knowledge that we have from these kinds of distorting influences the it's actually a common strategy of those who want to generate conflict onto the other side into two arguments, arguments about climate change or arguments about evolution. The arguments between cultural. Identifiable advocates is the source of the pollution in our science education environment. That's what emits these kinds of meanings that entangled, group identity with positions on these issues were in an era now where there's a lot of discussion of fake news. Do you think that the proliferation of the internet and the accessed information are things getting better or worse digest? The of the echo chamber has been around for a long time in the sort of the best evidence of the echo chamber is, is the echo chamber keeps propagating the echo chamber thesis for a long time. Social scientists have studied the echo chamber concluded that it really isn't the case that people are forming their views within these informational silos. The people who read in your times, the are also very likely to look at the Wall Street Journal in vice versa. People will strat the information about what their teams view is from just about any source that you give them with fake news. I think we really need to distinguish between different kinds of fake. News, there's the stuff that looks like something that's produced by recognizable information providers like ABC news or the New York Times, or what have you. And at state, these ridiculous kinds of headlines like pope endorses Donald Trump. And as I read the evidence than assembled so far have done these studies, but I keep up with them. Probably nobody really believes that they're getting some kind of a thrill out of it. It's titillating in funny, but it's almost in the nature of satire, the really dangerous. They news relates to what positions groups have relative to other groups. The Russians were were disseminating lots of information by posing as different kinds of activist groups and actually fomenting the kinds of device that we saw that sometimes lead to violence. That's the atmosphere in which people become motivated processors information because it's polluting their science education environment. That's the kind of thing we should be most inserted about right now. We're just learning about how the internet. Becomes conduit for this kind of misinformation and maybe how to prevent it in. It's clear if you're trying to keep track of where we are relative to the to the Russians information misinformation that they're ahead of us. Maybe two, you have an advantage when you're playing offense, right defense, people don't seem to be credulous so much motivated. They want to believe the positions that are socio with their group. When you have that kind of demand, it's going to very profitable to generate a supply of misinformation. And so a lot of the silliest kinds of fake news that we saw before the two thousand sixteen election. The pope had endorsed Donald Trump, for example, came from a group in Macedonia that was just basically creating click, bait amid new that drew people in with these kinds of stories they would. They would click on the surrounding rinks on for things like hair loss treatment in what have you studies that suggest that nobody's really crediting, those ridiculous headlines, just laughing at them, but the the much more. Dangerous threat comes from the distortion misrepresentation that Russia, for example, makes about the position of different groups on controversial issues. And so it's it's stoking up this kind of cultural division, say on police violence that then makes people into the kind of people who process information bias way that's much more threatening. I think to taco passes to make sense of policy, relevant science than the kind of silly headlines. At this point, we were just playing from a defensive position. We don't know how to actually control this dynamic on the Russians seemed to be experts on how to how to manipulate it and use it to their advantage. It's essential tar democracy that we figure out how to prevent other countries from basically polluting our size indication environment. And this is a female of the recent book by Kathleen hall. Jamieson that discusses how these sources endanger democracy. In this way, I highly recommended to wrap up then I know were protecting, you know, another. The US election. What are your thoughts on how concerned we should be that misinformation could play a major role in the outcome will you know? Misinformation has been with us for a long long time. It hasn't originated from Russia all this time, but originates basically from within our own society where you have people divided along these cultural lines and then confidential preneurs who basically convinced them that these kinds of issues are ones in which positions match their their identity. We should be worried about that because the prospects for enlightened self government depend are are having kind of clean science negation environment in which are faculties, recognizing what science knows are not disabled. We should worry about that as we come up to presidential election or as we come up to any kind of election, local or national. We live in a society. One of the main focuses of witches to protect us from wrist. The only way it can achieve that is if citizens are themselves able to. Denies what it is at science notes. If diverse citizens recognize what science knows. They won't always Rian policy. They'll always be disagreement based on their value, but nobody even knows what policies really implement their values in science education environment that essentially corrupts their their capacity to interpret the cues signs at science usually uses to have citizens orient themselves with the best available evidence will then where can people follow up online to learn more about your work and to follow your future publications shared that our research group has a a website on cultural cognition dot net, and you can find lots of studies there on about the dynamics that I'm talking about. And there's a blog that discusses these issues on oftentimes features data to help people make sense of them. We even solicit very actively Pipop assise from their readers of the blog. And then we use the events that we have test those democracies. Thanks for listening today to skeptic were the news Baby, Jake, but the data does line support the show and find extended materials at data skeptic dot com.

scientist Beijing US Dan Kahan HP North Pole Yosemite Donald Trump Yale Law School Han Kyle polish Enright Allergy Dan con Kathleen hall
#131 Skattebetalerforening vil at skattefradraget for fagforeninger skal kes!

Liberaleren Podcast

23:23 min | 7 months ago

#131 Skattebetalerforening vil at skattefradraget for fagforeninger skal kes!

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FACEBOOK instagram with. Youtube. That's also in Utah.

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[REPLAY] Annie Duke  Thinking More in Bets (Capital Allocators, EP.76)

Capital Allocators

46:41 min | 6 months ago

[REPLAY] Annie Duke Thinking More in Bets (Capital Allocators, EP.76)

"Hello, I'm Ted Saudis, and this is capital allocators. This show is an open exploration of the people and process behind capital allocation. Through conversations with leaders in the money game, we learn how these holders of the keys to the kingdom allocate their time and their capital. You can keep up to date by visiting Capitol, allocators, podcasts, dot. com. Guest on today's show once again is any duke decision making expert world, famous former poker player, and author of the now bestseller thinking in bets I had a chance to interview any at the Investment Institute Fall Forum in Chapel, Hill North Carolina and the live interview follows special. Thanks to Andrea Sympathy Donna Holly. Institute for having any in me down for their terrific events. Our conversation covers the challenge of separating signal from noise in making decisions. The formation and confirmation of beliefs forming decision groups communicating with teams and mistakes. Annie's advisory clients have made after reading the book. We closed with some questions from the audience and end with two great poker stories of how any approached being a woman in the male dominated poker world. Europe wrestle brain was on display this time around covering a few of the same ideas from our last conversations and some new ones with different anecdotes along the way. Please enjoy my second conversation with any Duke. Thanks to to entrance specially for having us here I'm going to give a very quick intro of Anne. She. Studied cognitive psychology at Columbia and Penn.. which as you can imagine, is the natural path to becoming a professional poker player. He was a dissertation defense away from getting her PhD. Got Ill and needed to take a year off and that led to one year sabbatical trying to make a little bit of money at a poker parlor and billings Montana. And twenty years. Later. She retired one of the most famous poker players in the world probably the most recognized television poker player and. That time she realized that she might not play poker forever and started thinking about what she was learning in the process and did a whole bunch of speeches and advising and earlier this year published this fantastic book called thinking bets, which was her third book but I for General Audiences. So if what we're saying bores you as we all have done, I've been sitting there too and you take out your iphone during this, go your Amazon APP. Click. It's fine. We don't mind thinking about to by copy. And he what was it about poker? That led you to start thinking about decision. Oh. Gosh I feel it so circular so What I was studying when I was in graduate school feels I think to most people that goes pretty far afield from poker. What I was actually focused on was how children learn their first language. And what you realize when you get a table is actually this is an incredibly similar problem which makes you think about the similarities kind of across all learning where there's noise. So if you think about the problem for a child to learn a language, there's all sorts of noises. The child has to pick the things that are language of all the noises so like crackling papers don't count. Right. So that's Kinda hard. And if you can pick those out now you've got to identify the word boundaries and the sentence boundaries, and that's also really hard and then once you get a word boundary and then mother says something like Dax. What has DAX mean well, does it mean the act of pointing? Does it mean the thing that she's pointing to does it mean an aspect of what's being pointed to like the color like yellow or soft? Could it be a state of mind like think? Is it an action I? Mean? This is a really hard problem in it's incredibly noisy and the feedback is great and kids do it super? Fast? So. That's what I was looking at Hauer, their constraints that are sort of built into the way that we come into the world with this language machine that allow us to reduce the noise, and now I move in I start playing poker and I think now doing something totally different. Except that I'm not because you make these moves and then you get some feedback you win or lose the hand. But what does it really mean is the problem because you can win a hand out of pure lock you could win out of skill you could win it but not have one as much as you should have. For example, you could win. But when too much, you could win more than you should have same thing on the losing side. So it's also incredibly noisy, and so when I was thinking about what are the things that are really causing problems with learning language, which is there's information that could doesn't know, and then there's sort of lock in terms of what's paired with what seemed like the same problem that was occurring at the poker table at. which point I realize this is really the problem we have is decision makers in life. Right is that there's a lot of noise between outcomes and feedback, and despite the fact that when I was in graduate school is todd that learning occurs when there's lots of feedback tied closely in time to decisions and actions I realized well, Poker really tells you that's not true because people don't play poker very well, but there's a lot of feedback so. At some point I realized I'm just moved into a much better laboratory actually for studying the kinds of problems that was interested in graduate school in sort of took it from there and merged the two together and how did you start thinking about that difference between noise and signal so this was something that was really thinking about when I was thinking about language acquisition, right? Like there's a lot of noise and there's actual noise because it's language to. What signal to the Child Hera depicting the signal out. So I was kind of thing about this just sort of trying to solve the problem for myself for about eight years I wasn't really in any kind of explicit way thinking about it in an academic sense I was thinking about how do I learn in this environment and figure out what's what? And then in two thousand, two, I got asked by a hedge fund to come speak to a group of their traders. They were having a retreat for their traders to come and talk to them about risk. And I you know I don't really want to talk about risk. I realized what I really want to talk about was this noise problem and that was the first talk that I gave was about this noise problem in what it does. That's really where I ended up really thinking very explicitly about the way that this disconnection kind of pulling apart this uncertain relationship between decision quality and outcome quality really gets in the way in so many ways of good decision making. So why do we get things wrong cash it's such a complicated question, but here's the problem for any given outcome that you have trying to work backwards to the quality of decisions really hard. So most of the time decision quality is incredibly opaque particularly in retrospect we don't really. Know what the mathematics working an unknown probabilities, right. So a lot of times it's like ensemble probabilities where it could be going in many different directions. But at any given time that we make a decision, there's lots and lots of possible futures that can occur but there's only one that actually does occur. Right trying to figure out what are the probabilities of those futures is actually really hard to do from a prospective standpoint. But once we get into a retrospective Stan meaning that some outcome has already occurred then we. Have a huge problem. I talk about it in the book I caught resulting, which is determined that my group used for which is that the result actually cast a huge shadow on her ability to come back in and actually determine what the decision quality is, which is hard on its own but it's like this very big cognitive shadow which I think is really built into us. We'd like things to be very connected. We like things to happen for a reason we like things to have a causal relationship we. Don't like randomness as species, and so once we know the outcome, it's like we can't go back and kind of reconstruct the decision tree in any kind of real way, and so what ends up happening is we use the outcome quality as to perfect to signal for decision quality as we're trying to kind of work back into that, and I think part of the reason for that in terms of connection is if you think about from an evolutionary standpoint, what's the punishment for a false negative versus a false positive? And, obviously, the punishment for false negative is much bigger. So you're on the Savannah you hear rustling in the grass you're standing there trying to figure out what that is, and then you die because you get eaten or you run away and you might be wrong but who cares so the penalty for being wrong isn't so great because you live in your genes pass on. So we have this real tendency to be sort of over fitters. It's easier when you do things prospectively to not do that because you don't. have anything to fit it to yet except your own ideas, which is a whole other problem. But the retrospective problem is particularly problematic because it's not just your own ideas that you're trying to over fit it to. But now you actually have a result that you naturally over fan what happens with your own ideas we can think about any decision we make a bat my book is called thinking and Bats, and so this obviously the premise of it so people don't tend to think about their decisions it's bad because. They think about that's confined like they think about it. In the traditional way, we used to go in a casino and I place a bet on the craps table. But all that Abed is is you have some set of limited resources you Dan have to invest in some sort of decision you can't invest in all decisions that are available. You've got to go one way. So you're trying to figure out given the resources that I have which thing do I want to invest in that will result in what I? Think are going to be the best possible set of futures given the limited resources that I have to invest. So anytime that we have lots and lots of futures that could happen and we have limited resources, we know that we're bedding and this is actually true. Even if you only have one option, you're still betting on that one option because of the uncertainty still bat. So once we sort of have that we say okay. So every decision is about what are those bets built on? Will they're built on our beliefs? and. We can sort of divide our beliefs into two categories. One is like facts earth is round. Another would be predictions. The Earth will be around tomorrow and so those beliefs that we have about facts out in the world and how those can help us to figure out what the world would look like tomorrow or the next month or the next year. The next five years are wetter informing our bets. So we have this foundation for every decision that we make and what we would love. Is If the feedback that we get out in the world drives? This foundation actually makes it so that this is how reforming our beliefs, but it turns out that that's not. So and this is where we kind of get this over fitting problem in prospective sense. So most of the beliefs that we have are actually woven into our identity about ourselves there some that aren't, but mostly the things that we believe actually sort of build our view of ourselves and they become part of our identity. This is particularly true when we get into things that have to do with tribe and tribe isn't just about. It's about whether you're a value investor or a trend follower or whatever. It might be. We all have these tribes and we believe these things very strongly as part of our identity but we also believe things that aren't part of identity that also drives the way that we look at the world. So example that part of your identity would be. How do you telephone man's going to go bald and when I ask people in the audience, they'll raise their hand. You look at the mother's father and what do we do with that information? Do we go out and take a random sampling of men who are going bald and find out where in their family tree they lied what we do is we notice men who have gone all they say, yes, it was because my mother's grandfather was bothering me say, hi, this must be true. So this becomes this problem circularity that what happens is it's not that the information that we get in the world actually informs. Our beliefs it's that we form beliefs in a relatively haphazard way, and then those beliefs actually drive the way we process information. So what ends up happening is kind of twofold one is that we notice information that confirms the beliefs that we already have. So you're looking through Google news and you're seeing the stuff that agrees with you and you don't see this stuff that doesn't agree with you so much. That's confirmation bias that's pretty well known but a bigger problem that people don't talk about it as much is that when we are confronted with information that disagrees with us, we work very hard to disconnect from it. So, what happens is in the morning I'm reading political articles. I. See something that agrees of me I practically past the headline I just gave me I'm so right. So is this person who's just written and when I see something that disagrees with me that I read our write a dissertation on it. This is why it's wrong. These are the facts are not including. This is why they're biased. So I worked very hard to make sure it's not true and the other thing is that when information comes from out of tribe, we don't trust it so it can actually cause us to entrench more. So what happens is that instead of the information in the world driving Our belief for Mason what happens is that the beliefs we have actually drive the way we process information and they drive it in a particular way to reinforce the police we already have and we get this circular pattern called motivated reasoning. So this is where the prospective problem comes in is the as we're trying to figure out what are the possible futures that might occur her we have to have a very clear idea about how much luck is in the process. which we try to reduce because we don't like to think about luck it doesn't feel good to us that we don't have control but then also the belief that we have are going to inform our predictions about the future and our predictions about the future are going to actually be motivated to essentially affirm and confirm that the beliefs that we already have, and so we're not going to get a particularly good view of the future that way other than suffering from resulting. Confirmation bias motivated reasoning and just about anything else. Is there anything we can do to? Improve, the quality of our decisions. So we can, and the important were in there is marginally I. Think what people generally think is like well, I'm super. SMART. And everybody super smart because of the better than average effects that we're all super. Super, smart. And now I know about this someone told me about motivated reasoning someone told me about confirmation bias. They've told me about resulting. They've told me about so yeah, me I'm clearly not gonNA. Do it anymore And the answer is, yes, you will, and in fact, it will be worse for you. So I'm just going to give a little bad news before I get to the good news. So there's actually two. Pieces in my book, it's a study by Dan Kahan that showed that people who are really numerous. Statistics for example, being able to work correlation tables that are difficult because the raw numbers point in the wrong direction but the correlation point to in the right one, the people are really good with those tables. When you give them tables that have to do is something that is politically motivated for them like gun control they're worse. They're better at spinning the dated a fit, their beliefs because they're better with data like hoodoo putting a spin room dumb guy on the smart guy but the smart guys that he can be to mind for you. So that's number one. Then there was also wasn't solving syllogism syllogisms have internal logic. They don't have to relate to the real world, but we know that. People get tripped up when a syllogism come to conclusion that doesn't comport with the real world like all frogs or blue, and then you fall apart and you can't see the internal logic anymore. So again, they looked at people who actually like had degrees in logic they were really good at it and they were worse when it didn't comport with their with their political beliefs. This isn't I know it's really sad. So being smart actually makes it worse. So that's number one. So don't think that's going to solve it. I think that that's what's really important. So now here's how we get marginally better. Just to serve in the room, how good do you think you all are in this room it's fighting when other people are being biased like really good, right. Right 'cause like I'm screaming at the television all the time. Okay. So we know that we're very good at spotting it and other people in fact were so good at it that there was a great study that was just done where they had people solve logic problems and they had to write down their answers to logic problems. Then rate their own answers. Of course, they rated quite highly then they had them rate other peoples solutions to the logic problems. Well, guess what one of the five that they were reading was their own solution which they had previously rated quite highly, and now when they it and they did not know it was their. Own they were very critical of it. They wrote the dissertation on why it was so bad. So even when it's own answer and we think it comes from someone else we're much better at spotting by a okay. So let's use that to our advantage and I can say, Hey, ted I can see that you're really biased and so why don't we make a deal because I imagine if I can tell you're really biased. You can probably tell when I'm really biased. So if we make a pact between the two of us that you're GonNa Watch my bias and I'm GonNa Watch your bias. Now we can form kind of a decision group together. Where we make rules about what the interaction is supposed to be. You can set me straight I can set you straight, and now we can have a commitment to essentially reasoning to be accurate versus reasoning to be right and I'd like to really make that distinction reasoning to be right is I believe things I want those things to be true that recently reasoning to be accurate is saying there is some objective truth and I should be working to build the most. Accurate model of the objective truth because if we go back to the idea of decisions, it's bad who wins back the one who has the most accurate model of the objective truth or the one who just right well, that's an easy answer. So let's make a commitment to do that together and watch each other's back some hard to envision that you start doing that and it can be a little bit emotionally charged trying to tell me that something I think is. Are there ways of massaging the language so that it's easier to deliver that message? Yeah. So certainly, there's some people have a personality where when I, just say like you're out of your mind, it's fine but not everybody's kind of like in that way. So there's a few things you can do. One is you can say well I. Think there's another way to look at it. So notice I haven't in any way invalidated your way to look at I'm saying, could you consider this other thing? Let's look at it this other way, and then like we can compare and contrast, and so all of these sort of ways you can do it have to do a not invalidating the thing you said. So another thing you can do is to actually be very future focused. So if you say something that I think is really biased about something that's happened in the past what I can do instead of saying, don't you think that's not why that's actually true instead can say, well, how do you think you could prevent that from happening in the future? Now. Notice that in order for you to actually reasonably answer that question, you must go back and look at where you went wrong in the first place because you can't answer that question without doing that. But I'm not the one making the challenge to you. I'm just asking how you fix it in the future. So an example with my kids right and my my child would come home and say, Oh, I got such a bad grade on that task because the teacher put a bunch of stuff that wasn't on the test and it was really hard and everybody to really poorly on it and also he hates me and you can ask anybody in the class. Meanwhile, I saw a lot of to Katie played. So Instead of saying to hold on a second I saw you on to k the whole time. What I say is Oh. That must be really frustrating. How do you think you could do better on the next test and we'd get to the same place as if I said, you were playing a lot of two K. it's just that we would do it without the confrontation because I would just validate. So think about how do you say yes, and you know that old improvisation thing of. Starting. One of these discussion groups, how do you start honing in on? These are the observations that I'm going to try to make for you where I see you have a bias when I'm not experienced doing that yet one of the things that I really ask for people to do and I'm doing trainings with them is to start to really write down a list for themselves of things that are really good cues. They're probably thinking in a biased way. As an example whenever you sort of offload to the world when you're socializing something to the world completely that's usually a really good example. Actually, I saw something interesting recently a an interview with cliff agnes and he said this he said when the market goes down because of humans panicking people say the market went down. So that's a really good example of socializing to the world if this has nothing to do with people, but it goes down because of algorithms trading people say it. Was the quad fault so that privatizing to people. So that's a good example of when you see yourself socializing out to the world. That's what my son was doing. It wasn't my fault it was because the teacher doesn't like me for example. So I know that for me, that's a really big thing when I listened to that structure and that structure of the language where I know I'm socializing to the world another one for me personally as like, oh my gosh, it was so unfair. It feels really unfair. It feels like things like this. Always happen to me when I'm speaking in extremes of leg zero, one, hundred percent I'm totally certain or you're wrong or I'm right or I should have seen that coming. That's another good one for me. So anyway for everybody is going to be a different list. So I really ask people to write these things down and then I would share that with you and then you would help me to start completing that list so. We would start somewhere where you'd say look here the things for me that are bad things for me to be saying here's the type of category where I think that I fall down please watch for this and we're GONNA share these lists together and then can you help me add to it I think that that's always a really good place to start a lot of the people listening are leaders of organizations and yeah, you could form a discussion group is probably great thing to do. How did they go about communicating with their teams in such a way that improves the quality of the decision of the team. Let me give you two of the many many many ways. That you can do that the first has to do with food really understanding that when you're in a leadership position particular, there's this problem of contagion that really exacerbated. So contagion is basically this. It's not only that I will try to reason toward my own beliefs. But if I tell you what my beliefs are, I have infected you with them and you will now without knowing it also try to reason toward my beliefs. So most of us kind of want to be on the same page with the other human beings that we talked to assuming that you're within tribe. If you're not within tribe, we have the opposite motivation, but that's then also infecting you in a different way but let's assume were in try. So, given that you want to be on the same page as I am without knowing it unconsciously once I've stated my belief which could be a factor a prediction it doesn't matter. You're now going to start to reason toward that. That's a particularly big problem if you're in a leadership position. So when you're trying to get high fidelity vice from your team, it's really important that you keep your beliefs to yourself. As you're trying to work decision and allow them to sort of speak freely number one, and it's actually really hard to do think about this for yourselves like when you share like an opinion piece, you read an opinion piece in a newspaper and find out what somebody else thinks about it. Do you do this or that here's a hey, ted i. read this opinion piece we read it. Let me know think. And Stop. Be Hey i read this opinion piece and I think this this this and this about it I'd love to get your opinion. Will you read it? We all do the second thing because we think that our opinion is somehow really important. It's like an important piece of Information I. Think I'm giving you really valuable data but in. So doing I've ruined you as a partner in crime because you are now going to read that through the frame of what I've already told you and we do this in little ways every single day and leadership we have to really be careful about this infection problem. So that's number one is like keeper beliefs to yourself keep your predictions to yourself try to keep your leans to yourself as you're trying to work through decisions or when you're doing post mortem or whatever it is let them speak freely and then the other thing that I would say is that the group will infect each other as much as you can give them at first to give independent advice the better off you are so that they're not awful infecting each other because sometimes the more charismatic people in the. Group will be the bigger factors or whatever. So so that's number one is trying to quarantine and then number two is you have to lead in a way that really allows people to not be afraid of outcomes and I think this is really hard. I think there's a lot of really bad decision making that happens in the world because we're really afraid of how it might turn out, and so we're trying to anticipate what's the decision in which I can make the best case for why this isn't my fault. And when we start to reason, in that way, our risk profile starts to get really really distorted because we're not aligned with what the long term best interest of anything is were aligned with what trying to protect ourselves against what the short-term downside and I think that in general that's sort of a leadership issue and it's because the problem is that human beings no that people blame them for the way that things go right it's kind of going back for this resulting problem and giving that human beings know that you get blamed for that. Then essentially, you just try to avoid the. Things you get blamed for, and then all of a sudden you have a sales person who's closing one hundred percent of their sales, and by the way if you can't change your fire them, which is counterintuitive. So I think that's another thing is that you really have to communicate in a way to your team that you don't need to be afraid with me that I care about the quality of the decision but I'm not as worried about the quality of the outcome not in the short term I recognized that if we work together to make good quality decisions, the outcomes will realize. In the investment world is world uncertainty. We. Know that we're going into decision and don't know the answer now we don't. How do you go about talking about what you do know and you don't know in a way that makes people on your team more comfortable. To fall through the process without the reliance on the outcome. So there's a few things that I think are really. Helpful. In terms of getting people to that place. Thing. Number one is as you're trying to work through it really having people work through what are the possible scenarios. And have them start to try to really put probabilities on those and when they say while the probabilities are known, you save fine but we know it's not the whole range of zero to one hundred percent. So let's try to create a range on that and when you do that what you tell them is I understand I'm not asking you to be right. I'm asking you to start to narrow it down and thinking this probabilistic way and give me sort of what you think is the best view of the future and obviously in order to start narrowing down what those ranges are in the probabilities than you start to ask the right questions of what are the things that we could know that would allow us to actually get this to be uneven narrow range you start to get people. Really comfortable with being willing to not say I think it's fifty five percent being willing to say I think it's somewhere between forty and sixty five percent. How can we get that better? So that's a good way to communicate. The process matters to you because even saying its seventy five percent that's an outcome right there that people feel like they're sort of going to be pegged to, and so they're afraid to give you anything at all. That's number one number two is to allow people to understand that the point is to again be accurate. Not Right. So I think this idea of doing these pre mortems are really important because it shifts what it means to be a team player into something where you're willing to explore the way that things can go. Wrong. So there's kind of a pair of exercises that you can do is a back cast in one is a pre mortem. So aback, cast would be things are good right or it's a year from now and our portfolio is up. Fifteen percent. Why do we think that that happened? So this is a really natural way for people to think, and now you're sort of working backwards. It gets you out of thinking about just what's rate here thinking a little bit more long-term about what are the things that could have occurred in the last year and you do that happy exercise but doing this other. Exercise of it's a year from now on our portfolio is down fifteen percent that's a pre mortem and have people actually engage in that exercise allows people to know that you're thinking about the fact that things don't always work out what matters to us is that we foresee the landscape much more than that. We get a good outcome, right because we assume that. If we foresee the landscape and we go through these exercises and we're willing to do this together that we're going to end up on the good side of the outcome's much more and it redefines for people what being a good team player means because now they get to say, well, we made this mistake and we did this wrong and then you think about. The things that have to do with luckily, the president did such that we we don't have control over that and you start to think about what do I have control over what I and that gets you much more focused just on how good of a forecaster are we and now the outcome you're looking for is good forecasts as opposed to good or bad. And if you can get people focused on good forecasting as opposed to the quality of the outcome itself people believe much more that the outcome will come. You've written the book and there's the definition of the problem, some prescriptions and you go out and you start advising organizations who have read the book. What have you found? So it's two things. So when I was reading the book and I was talking about this disconnection between outcomes and decision. Quality I was thinking about two problems that come from this problem number one is that you can make really really good decisions and have them not workout. Even if it's ninety nine percent of the time, it's GonNa work out sometimes that one percent hits. So. There was definitely that side of it but the obverse of that is that you really really really terrible decisions and have those work out. Just fine. I have read Red Lights in my life by mistake and I'm alive. Thank you very much and both of these are really huge problems for learning really really big problems for learning. Because in one case obviously, you don't want to think that just because it worked out well, I should now go from running red lights. It's pretty bad. I mean I've actually heard people say like I drive better when I'm drunk it's like Greek because you've got home safely. Of We all have that there's so many things in our lives where we think we've drive better when we're drunk just because like stuff worked out so we don't want to have that happen. But what's interesting is that as much as I emphasized that side of the coin, which I think is actually the worst problem. Good. Stuff happened I think is because of me solely, I'm just going to repeat all that stuff and the reason why I think it's a worse problem is number one. You don't want repeat it but number two. When you go down that line, you tend not to explore whether you were like on the Tertiary Line Yeah Okay you had a great result, but maybe you were supposed to have a result that was twice as. Good. But we leave those things relatively unexamined because we just think we did a great job. I think that's the bigger problem what people latched onto the other thing though which isn't surprising given our own bias that our beliefs in the things that we believe about ourselves in our own decision quality are so wrapped up into our identity. Is it surprising that people latched onto? The can have bad outcomes and it's not my fault part. I SUPPOSE I. Suppose that isn't that surprising because that fits in with reasoning to be right. I thought I emphasize it enough in the book that I was really really scared of this other problem. I don't know if I could've emphasized it enough maybe and so that I was really surprised about was that that particular line of reasoning about what happens when things work out well, and why is that so problematic for learning and so then what goes along with that is that what I found was that one of the biggest problems that I was seeing was that people who are in finance not this process language like they know it really well, like they understand you're supposed to speak in process. But when I actually looked at what they were doing, they weren't they were really just worried about the downside unexpected downside outcomes. So they would come in and they would say, oh, we're really process-oriented around here but I'm having this problem because I feel like my desk heads are not managing their risk for while you know and I don't understand why because I tell them I don't care all the time 'cause were process oriented, and then I would sit in on their meanings and they were all why did we lose? So I was like, well, what do you think you're telling them? You're telling them you really really care when you lose one was the last time you had a meeting about why did you win? The example that I give is like your real estate investor and you invested in the property and the. Appraisal comes in super low and it's just it's all hands on deck. What's wrong with our model? But the appraisal comes in super high and it's literally like And obviously in reality that's like as big a problem, right? Like if you're model is forecasting low, that's as big a problem for your ability to actually allocate your capital and a really smart way is if your forecast is coming in wrong, the other way outside of the world remains unexamined. So unless you're willing to examine both sides of the world, how can you actually be process-oriented right than you're really just outcome oriented with a bunch of process language wrapping around it, which is why I go back to this problem of being smart makes it worse. Because when you're smart, you're really good wrapping processing language as a pretty package. But what's inside is a pile of bad outcomes when you open the present, it just looks really pretty and it sounds really good and you're really convincing to the people around you except that you're not actually behaving in that way it's just that you can spin a better story about how your process slanted. I'm sure we're going to have questions people and ask before we do. I want to give a little pitch for your block. So. First of all, if you've you're looking at your phone and haven't bought the but you're supposed to do that, then you should go to any duke. Dot Com. There's a wealth of information. One of them's Andy's been putting together a weekly blog of things. She sees an read where people are consistently making these types of mistakes and as she said, you find I read the book, and for about three days I'm thinking incredibly well about my decisions and then you go back and I found this just a fantastic way of refreshing your mind Oh. Yeah. GotTa remember every week every week everyone. Yes. It's a newsletter and you can just go on there and and subscribe to it. It's. So how else you spend your time? The the newsletter takes a lot of time. So I just told another book with a third book behind that. So I'M GONNA be working on workbook to help people be able to install some of the lessons in the book, and then another book that's a little bit more on the line of what we just talked about actually in terms of the real problem of late, how do we actually get people away from being outcome driven in their decision making going back to do my PhD with Fil tight lock. Trying to fit that in it's been slow but. Because I'm a little busy and outside of like my children take a lot of my time and other things I'm doing a ton of this. I do a lot of keynoting trainings half day full day trainings. Coaching. And Consulting. So I would love to spend the last five minutes allowing people the audience to ask you some questions. If that's okay before you're gone hey, questions please raise your hands. Probably, everyone in yours invested with either individual pulling the trigger on. Whatever investment or a group making a decision? How would you expect those to two different I mean I think into lead individual would have far wider outcomes either really good really bad versus a group, but the honesty review. So it's so completely depends on how the group is constructed. Most groups become individuals on steroids kind of you tend to stick with people who Agree with you people don't really like conflict very much. Generally, descent is not well represented and so in some ways, a group can actually be worse than an individual if the thought stylus confirmatory. Now, if you have a group whose really developed a good culture around exploratory thought, then the group was going to do much better in general and the reason why is That, the group will have a disciplining effect in a pretty strong disciplinary effect on the bias of any particular individual in the group. But you have to really query. If you WANNA understand whether a group is the better choice than in particular individual, you've got a query on what that culture looks like and you have to be really careful because you may have. Someone, tells you about how process oriented they are and how open to dissent they are. I would want to sit in on those meetings and listen to how they actually communicate with each other because in reality, it's incredibly hard to actually put into practice and when you do that, you have a bunch of people who are cheerleading each other and actually becomes worse. because. The individual will tend to have more doubts because they don't feel like they have natural consensus and so the individual will discipline themselves better than a group will discipline them if the group has a confirmatory thought style so I would say sort of if you had to rank order, the worst is a group that has a confirmatory thought style. Then would be an individual investing in. Dan would be a group with an exploratory thought style. I. Think that we tend to think that putting a group together just better and it's not true. It really depends on what the culture of the group is but you said really resonates with May I really enjoyed your comments. Curious. There's so much talk in executive ranks about being, results oriented. And I'm curious about when you go out and talk to people how that language of I'm results oriented gets in the way of what you're talking about I. Think it's one of the worst things that somebody can say I think that if you say I'm long-term results oriented, that's totally fine because we should all be long-term. Integrate like give me ten thousand coin flip. So I'll tell you a whole bunch about the coin. But. I don't want to know on one result. That's a language that I actually tried to get rid of right away because I think that that's actually directly communicating to people that they really need to defend themselves against results but particularly bad results. So I think that when you say results oriented, you think that your motivating people to give you good result and the fact is that you are but not the right kind what you're motivating them to do is to choose consensus choices to stick with the status quo to choose the lower volatility choice rather than the higher volatility choice to try to sort of the swings low I actually hearing it for enchants of. Therefore. Grandjean in. Not. Process Range. Oh that's really interesting. So generally what you're telling people is that your decision making is a black box to me. So you are saying, I'm not process oriented and fact what I think goes along with that is very often what you hear from people who are saying I'm result-oriented is that they have a big belief in gut as well. It's this idea of like. Well, we can't really open it up to a process because like I have my secret sauce and so if you ask me why made the decision I did it's just because a me. And what I really try to get people who are thinking that way to think about is that it's really good to open up the black box because I'm a big fan of what Feinman said like if you can't explain it to an eight year old, you probably know what you're talking about and so when someone says well I did it because of my gut I think it's a cop out and what generally say to somebody like that is what okay I know it was your gut. So that's great and really happy your gut is so good but wouldn't it be great if the rest of your team could learn from your gut and so what what then do is I don't. Challenge that there is really good. I. Just tell them. If you really did if they had to teach it to the rest of their team, because otherwise what happens is that you're not actually bringing your intuitive choices up to the light of day against a rational process. So I think those two things go hand in hand. Is there a big believer in blackbox decision making? So you have to sort of pull those two things out the way I do it is like that's great but you got to teach them how and then that will generally get them to start thinking a little bit more about process but it's tough. We have a group of very experienced women back here and we. Not they're not others throughout through twenty six percents. I counted the roster, but we were talking as you were talking about how we are constantly. Feeling like we're wrong when we are in a group meeting and we've often been the only woman in the group is just so consistent. I think for women in a lot of these meetings. Is there something about we should be aware of in those meetings or try to grab onto or the way that we were taught to do things? Can we close this you telling poker story? Of How? You can take advantage of being a woman. Oh. Yes. Sure. That's an interesting way to close it. Absolutely. Okay. So Cheer Point, I, think that one of the problems that I have found when I've talked to women and just to give you an idea in an average poker, three percent of the people playing are women. Not Too many of us. So you're sitting at the table and by the way there's no HR, department. and. There's this real sense like as someone said, something completely outrageous you at the table and you look at the floor person his supposed to be sort of controlling the game it's you can leave. So all right. Okay. I guess I could. So it's this idea like you're here voluntarily. So therefore, whatever abuse, you're taking your choosing a lot of what's happening is that what's coming at? You is a real disrespect for your abilities in your intellect. I think everybody has a need. To be liked and respected, but there's a time and a place for that and when you're sitting across the table from an opponent, it is not in any way shape or form to your advantage to be proved that you should be liked and respected as much is it doesn't feel good when someone says something really nasty to you and disrespects you as an opponent that's an advantage. So what I used to try to think about when I was playing was that in terms of the structure that I was sitting in, there wasn't a whole lot that I can do about it. Right? Like I couldn't look at the floor men and say, could you make the stop? That wasn't going to happen and that maybe just by presence in need being in this world that may be the culture would change over time. But that certainly in any given moment I couldn't do a whole lot to change the culture. So what I started to think about was, well, how can I take the fact that you have this attitude toward me? and not everybody but a certain. Subset of the people I was playing against would have this attitude toward me and how can I actually create agency for myself in that interaction in order to turn that to my advantage. So here's to really simple examples. I know that you think I'm capable of thinking that's only one level deep. That's as far as a little girl brain will go. So therefore that must mean that if I'm betting I probably have a strong hand and if Not then I probably have we can, and so you're gonNA give me a relatively one to one mapping between my actions and the quality of my cards. So once I know that I can say, well, you don't think too much of me. That's fine but because you don't think too much of me, that means I can bluff you all the time because you're of the opinion that I'm incapable putting a lot of money in the pot unless I have a very good point. So that would be a way that I could use that to my advantage. Another example would be there's a certain type of opponent who would consider it a total assault on their masculinity if you were to bluff them. That'd be the worst thing that could ever happen to them and what goes along with that is they want to kind of assert themselves over you all the time as well. So the way that that tends to manifest is that they're highly aggressive of you because they're trying to bless you all the time and if you try to bluff them, they call you because the only way you can stop someone from every bluffing you is to actually just check them out every single time and not ever fold and folding. To a woman doesn't feel very good to them. So obviously, against somebody like that well, there's no use in bluffing but what I know I can do is that I can take my very good hands and I can just bet like way more than I normally would be able to because you're just going to be what we call looking you up all the time you're going to want to see my whole cards to make sure I'm not tricking you because that would not feel good to you. So I remember actually. One of the very first time that I played the biggest win that I had at this time. I was playing a two dollar five dollar pot limit holdem game. I. Think. My biggest wind up to this point was probably eighteen hundred dollars and I played against a particular gentleman who was of this variety who really just wanted to assert himself over me. So he kept betting and I kept calling him and I would call him with like as high and I would call him would like to. TWOS and I mean I was just calling these ridiculously bad hands and he would move onto the next handed try it again and it would move onto the next and try it again and ended up winning seventy, five hundred and the game. Was the biggest one I'd ever want, and for anybody knows anybody about that dollar five dollar limit like a huge win in that game should be a thousand dollars. So like this is a good example of the best revenge is not for me to try to convince you otherwise it's to figure out what the best way for me to take strategic advantages of the way that you're sort of viewing me as a human being then I can walk away from the table because. Wouldn't be friends with you if this is your attitude toward women anyway. So what do I care was kind of the way that I. Look at why am I trying so hard to make you my friend and I wanted to say really really clearly that this is not the majority of people I played against there is just a certain sector of the people that I played against to behaved in this particular way and it was Super Yummy when that happens. The in bed. Before you take off, I've created three different ways for you to stay updated on the podcast and my blog according to your preferences I you can sign up to receive a monthly email with a few great things. I've read and listen to over the month second for more prompt delivery you can subscribe to my blog and receive emails when each podcast episode and blog post come out and last you can access the full library of transcripts by signing up for a premium subscription. All three options are available on the homepage at capital allocators PODCAST DOT COM. Thanks for your support.

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From the Vault: Motivated Numeracy and the Politics-ridden Brain

Stuff To Blow Your Mind

1:11:14 hr | 1 year ago

From the Vault: Motivated Numeracy and the Politics-ridden Brain

"You at Lexus. Their greatest curiosity is you because the most amazing machines aren't inspired by machines. They're inspired by people. That's why Lexus asks different different questions. Better questions. More human questions like Kenya. See with your ears and the answer is our is inspiring as you are which may leave view with one question. What amazing ideas will you inspire next? Discover the answers. LEXUS DOT com slash. Curiosity Hello Bunnies. This is ARD marine. We knew me from Chelsea lately or Regina Sinclair on insatiable. I want to tell you about my comedy. PODCAST will you accept this rose which is new to the iheartradio podcast network we we recap every season of the bachelor franchise including the bachelor the Bachelorette and Bachelor in paradise. We bring in bachelor super fans including Lance Bass Nikki. Glaser debby Brian. And more listen to will you accept this rose on the iheartradio APP apple podcasts. Or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey welcome to stuff to blow your mind. My name is Robert Lamb. And I'm Joe McCormick and it's Saturday time to go into the old vault this time. We're looking king at an episode that we originally released in November of two thousand eighteen yes This was motivated numeracy and the politics ridden brain. It's twenty twenty so it seemed like a good good year to roll. This went back out in. Oh boy let's dive right in welcome stuff to blow your hi from how stuff works dot com. Hey look stuck to blow your mind. My Name is Robert and I'm Joe McCormick and Robert. I WanNa hit you with a quote. I'm sure you've heard this one a million times before it's a quote from the American writer Upton Sinclair And the cool goes like this. He says it is difficult to get. Amanda understands something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it. Ha Ha well. That's pretty apt. I'm not sure I'd actually heard that one before but but that certainly has a ring of truth to it really. You never heard that. I don't think I heard that when people roll that out all the time time we're talking about you know industry Schill's maids spokespeople. Pr Types Yeah Upton Sinclair ran for governor of California in the Nineteen Thirties thirties and he claimed in a campaign retrospective that he used to tell his rally audiences this and I. It's a great line. There's plenty of truth to it right. Yeah by the way for anyone. Who's he's not from Upton Sinclair lived eighteen seventy eight thousand nine hundred sixty eight and he was the author of the jungle and perhaps More known to some of our listeners for his nineteen twenty seven story oil which was loosely adapted into the two thousand seven film. There will be blood always going to be remembered for a movie I but did he also right Boogie nights the original version. Yeah maybe so maybe so but no not just an author but also a politician. Yeah so he was used to talking about issues of public policy. I mean he was a politically concerned writer. I think a lot of times people put him in categories. Like like with Charles Dickens. You know somebody who's known for writing fiction but also for exposing seeing the plight of the politically disadvantaged and so yeah this quote comes up a lot like if you're talking about a lawyer representing big tobacco back in the day who'd come on TV and say say the science isn't settled yet. There's no proof. Cigarettes caused cancer or maybe a coal industry lobbyists may be literally the same exact person comes on TV. A few decades later Erin says don't listen to the climate alarmist their scientists on both sides gain. Climate change isn't settled yet when you're hearing from people like this who are paid to represent present a particular point of view obviously don't have to be a super skeptic to realize you shouldn't just take their word for it But people who get paid to tell you that the grass is pink in the sky is green are GonNa keep saying that you know you're not going to change their mind by offering them evidence or making good points or something because they're not here to figure out what's true they're we're here to say their lines. I'm always reminded of the the doctor character who had inevitably show up in the late night. infomercials for various products right You know clearly clearly. They didn't just do a cold call and get somebody in there to To to show for this product only Marlboro stimulates your cues zone When it comes to like that I guess this is kind of a tangent but when when it comes to like people who show for a particular point of view or are spokespeople for some kind kind of line on TV? I always kinda wonder like do. They end up really truly believing the thing that they're paid to say or is there some kind of cognitive dissonance ends in their brain. I don't know what it's like to be in that mind. Yes that's a great question though because I mean it's one thing for just a like an individual to endorse a product you know. Oh yeah like reading an ad or even saying hey. I tried out this product. It's really great You guys should give it a try as well which obviously we do on the show but But but when you get to that level where you have an expert when you have say a medical doctor appearing on an infomercial or appearing even in some sort of governmental body A. and saying yes I stake my reputation on this I stay my professional expertise off. Put It on the line in support of this product or this industry and directly contradicting what appears to be the preponderance of the evidence that that's what these industry shows come out to do right. They come out to tell you that the scientists are wrong but anyway given evidence that has emerged in recent years. I think maybe later on in this episode we should come back. And and try to do an updated version of this upton sinclair quote because I think that the scope of this quote is actually to limited by just focusing on the salaries so so we'll come come back to this But today we're going to be talking about a form of motivated reasoning. A form of motivated reasoning called motivated numeracy and and specifically how that relates the idea of identity protective cognition and this is come on the show before we talked about it in an episode while back called science communication breakdown. I think that was like a year and a half ago or so. I believe so. Yeah but it was based on when you had gone to the World Science Festival and seen a talk that included the work of of the Yale. Psychologist Dan Kahan. Who is he does a lot of really interesting research about biases in motivated reasoning in the ways in which our brains failed failed to be rational in one way sometimes by being Sort of subversively. Rational and another way. Yeah isn't it interesting. How we sometimes as to outsmart ourselves these matters? Yeah So I want to start by thinking about two different kinds of disagreements that come up when people talk about politics ex there obviously lots of different ways people can disagree about politics. Here are two different kinds of currently politically relevant statements. One is somebody who says the government shouldn't have a right to tax my income. Right you might talk to a libertarian. Who says and then here's a different politically relevant statement? Human human activity is the primary driver of global climate change now. People have political arguments over statements. Like both of these to all the time but these are not at all the same. What kind of statement? One big difference is that the first statement is a statement about values. Like you can't do a bunch of empirical experiments to determine if it's correct correct or not that the government should be allowed to tax people. That's just a question about what you believe. Should be the case. What about values and priorities and about about the priorities of the person making the statement right? It's a it's a it's a commentary on how you think or how one group thinks Politics should work or how government should work rather And we shouldn't be confused by the idea of political science political science though A A serious field is a different matter compared to The natural sciences well. It's certainly true that with questions about like whether or not you should tax income you can approach that question from the point of optimizing sizing for certain goals like you specify goal and you compare different methods of achieving that goal. Then you can do that but like absent all of that kind of framework. That's just a statement about values news on the other hand. The you've got. The human activity is the primary driver of global climate change. That statement is not like that there simply is a fact of the matter either. They're human activity is the primary cause of global climate change or it isn't and you can do empirical experiments to test this hypothesis. And of course the answer is yes. Yes we now know that it is the primary driver of global climate. Change with like a you know. Ninety something percent certainty is we really really strongly no this. This is undoubtedly the scientific consensus even though this question is politically controversial. It's scientifically controversial. And if you doubt this you actually have the ability to go. Look up the evidence yourself especially the That's one thing that the Internet is. Great for you can go read the most recent IPCC report you can read the thousands of individual studies. You can look at the data and read the climate scientists own words about how their conclusions are drawn from the data of their experiments. And if you actually do that I think any reasonable person person should be able to conclude of course human activities the primary cause of climate change and yet. That's not what happens. Is it questions like this. Remain main politically controversial with people often. Judging the answer in a way that aligns with their political identity now speaking politics I just WanNa throw a quick fact. Look the this episode. We recording this on election day it will be published after Election Day. So yeah so we don't know what the outcome's GonNa be yeah so So none of this. None of this commentary on things that have not yet occurred a- As of this recording. Yeah and it's not really a commentary on politics per se commentary on a psychology really The that is going to be at play in people of all political persuasions Zachary. So I think we should turn to look at the The big paper that we're going to be focusing on in this episode. The the lead author was was Dan Kahan but the other authors include Ellen Peters Erica. Cantrell Dawson Impulse Slavic Nick and it's called motivated numeracy and enlightened self government published in Behavioral Public Policy I think I published in two thousand thirteen revised in two thousand seventeen gene and they start off by observing the same kind of thing. We've just been talking about that. Obviously there are questions where people can argue about their political values but the politics is also full of these arguments about purely empirical questions Many of which are no longer in fact. empirically controversial like is climate change driven by greenhouse house gas emissions. The answer is yes But this is still politically controversial other questions like this. The they give big list of one would be like. Could we improve public. Doc Safety by storing nuclear waste deep underground and that one is yes as well. I believe that's one that was brought up in the the panel ruled signs festival. The Kahan spoke on. Yeah Yeah and that was one that actually I seem to be more divisive They kind of pulled the audience there at the World Science Festival. So you know for the most part very informed informed curious bunch right but even day. We're not as well informed On this issue as they were on some of these other issues. We're talking about here. Yeah now not all. All of these questions are going to be as settled with as much confidence as other ones are so like we have a very high confidence now that greenhouse gas emissions driving climate change but there could be other questions that are in theory empirical even if we don't have a scientific consensus yet. I honestly don't know where this the next question falls in whether it's more settled or less settled but other questions would include things like Do Gun control measures reduce violent crime or increase it does public spending in the aftermath of an economic recession increase the length of the recession or shorten it and so with some of these questions. We don't always as yet no the correct answer but they are. At least empirical you can do tests and you can gather data and you can find with some degree of confidence that there is a correct answer. It's not just GonNa to be an endless contest of values. Yes it in the domain of science and science can have at it one of the interesting things about a lot of these questions is that they for some reason. Almost I always seem to concern questions or perceptions of risk. I guess maybe that's just what politics is about. Yeah I think there is a lot of Risk Canales in politics. I mean obviously. There's there's there's always a certain amount of fear mongering as well Like how do you. How do you capitalize on the sort of risks? That that That voters are considering. How do you potentially Stir up the flames or Or Tamp them down a bit depending on. What kind of reaction action you're looking for? You look at many major policy decisions as as conflicts between perceptions of different kinds of risks. Right like like. So somebody will say well. There's a certain amount of risk where running by not doing anything about global climate change. Here are the things that could result and somebody else says yes but if we do something about got it we risk. I don't know we not making enough money or something or priore Frat. Perhaps it's yeah. We risk hurting ourselves in the short term or what short-term risk versus long term risk immediate risk versus more elusive risks. Yeah now obviously when you look at these questions that have been pretty convincingly answered with empirical evidence and yet intense disagreement persists in politics. This obviously isn't helpful like there's enough under dispute over what values this should drive public policy that it really doesn't help to add to that. Like unnecessary dead in disputes about underlying empirical facts when the science or the the facts are actually pretty clear. So the question is why. How come you can have a question where the evidence is very clear? Such as the cause of climate change Being related to the burning of fossil fuels but the public not being in general agreement about it and this. This paper looks at two major competing. Hypotheses to explain this like why people don't accept the facts when the facts are pretty clear and the first one is the hypothesis they call the science comprehension thesis assists or the sat and basically. It goes like this. The public in general has a pretty weak understanding of science. We are likely to misunderstand. What scientists dentists through telling us if you put a scientific paper in front of us we're probably not gonNA understand it? Those were likely to be misled by people who are trying to deceive us to their own an advantage and I think unfortunately or well. I don't want to pre-empt what we get to in a bit. But I I guess we could say unfortunately this hypothesis is pretty common among long skeptics and science enthusiasts even scientists themselves and I feel myself very drawn to it Because if you accept that the problem is we're just not scientifically literate enough to understand what's being talked about in weight. This is actually kind of hopeful. especially if you're an educator or a science communicator because the problems chrome simply a lack of knowledge. There's just a deficit that can be made up and so if you just give people better scientific education better communication communication of the scientific reality Under this hypothesis. If you just teach people better scientific literacy skills they will finally see the light and come around and accept except the empirically verifiable facts. Yeah there's hoping this because you can. You can teach people about science you can. You can teach people more logical thinking as well And Hey of course. I think that's clearly part of scientific literacy as well but I can't help but think back to for instance. Carl Sagan's discussion of on the the Baloney. He detection kit like the problem is people. Don't have the kit online right. Or they don't have all the tools and the cat For instance just just to blow through these really quickly. He goes into far more detail on the demon haunted world But the nine tools are again abbreviated number one. Whenever possible there must be independent? Confirmation of the facts facts in quotation marks number to encourage a substantial debate on the evidence Bhai knowledgeable proponents of all points of view. Okay yeah number. Three arguments Humi- from authority carry little weight. Authorities have made mistakes in the past. They will do so again. In the future. In science there are no authorities at most. There are experts in K.. Number four spend in more than one hypothesis number five try not to get overly attached to a hypothesis. Just because it's yours iowans hard. Yeah immerse quantify if whatever it he is you're explaining has some measure some numerical quantity attached to it. You'll be much better able to discriminate among competing hypotheses. This is why numbers are often useful in science tackling number seven if there is a chain of argument every link in the chain must work including the premise. Not just most of them number eight autumn's razor. This is basically quickly when you have A two hypotheses that explain data equally. Well you choose the simpler of the two right so like a dream or a hallucination is probably a better explanation for your alien induction experience. Then aliens coming here exactly and then finally the ninth tool in the Baloney Detection Kit. Always ask whether the hypothesis can be at least eastern principal falsified propositions that are untouchable or unfalsifiable are not worth much. That's a really good kid. And I think Carl Sagan I don't want to put words in his mouth but I do think he he seems to operate from that kind of hopeful scientific comprehension thesis point of view. At at least as best I can tell it. Seems like he thinks you know the problem with the lack of scientific skepticism among the people is just they need access to better tools like this and if we can communicate those tools to them they can bring them online and then they'll be more protected against the Titular Bologna. Yeah I think so now back to this paper the authors write that on this this hypothesis on the science comprehension thesis the lack of comprehension skill causes people to over rely on. What's what's known as system one thinking when judging empirical scientific questions like perceptions of risk now we should mention a little bit about the difference between these concepts of system one thinking and system two thinking? This is big in the works of people like Daniel Conham on who've written about behavioral economics and the psychology of bias and stuff. That's right it was key to his two thousand eleven book thinking fast and slow and we've talked about system one thinking system to show before I think the basic explanation here system one thinking is all about how fast automatic frequent emotional stereotypical unconscious thinking. This is the third this is ruled by heuristic shortcut. Cut ways of thinking when you when you look at two piles of things in WanNa know how many you know which pile has more things in it. If you just judge I don't know your eyeball it that system one system two thinking would be what maybe you count things in the pile. It is slow effort for infrequent logical calculating relating conscious is reminds me a lot of the to fear networks recently discussed on the show the slayer episode. Yeah system to is all about avoiding tiger haunted thickets while if you rely on system one then you're more of a tiger racer tiger boxer or a strip tiger denier and both both of those systems are necessary. Actually because we don't always have time to do deliberate. Slow logical calculating conscious. Thought a lot you so you know if we did that about every decision we made. We couldn't live. That would be no way to survive. You have to be fast and reactive and unconscious about all kinds of things and so the question is how do you choose which types of decisions and scenarios to apply these two different Thinking scheme to on the science comprehension thesis. I think the ideas that people are relying on system one thinking to answer empirical questions about science that are politically relevant whereas they should be using their system. I'm to thinking to get through the get through the fast reactive stereotypical thinking and and come to the correct answer. Fun Fact We used to be owned by a company company that called itself system one named after this this mode of thinking but that's not the only hypothesis on offer. That's the science comprehension thesis the other a hypothesis. The rival hypothesis is what if the problem with controversies over. Empirical questions is not that. They're caused by deficit of knowledge alleged cognitive skill and this other idea the authors called the identity protective cognition thesis or the ICT they write quote and whereas Seti attributes conflicts over decision relevant science to deficits in science comprehension ICT sees the public's otherwise intact capacity Pasadena comprehend decision relevant science as disabled by cultural and political conflict. In other words. It's not that people can't understand the science lance it's that they could understand the issue if they were not politically charged and it is specifically the political charging of the issue that makes it impossible impossible for them to understand what they otherwise might be able to all right so I have to try and put this into tiger terms. Okay so it's like having the capabilities to avoid void tiger kill zones but refusing to do so for political reasons. Right yes all your friends around you maybe are saying like oh no the the people who say that the Tigers hang out in the jungle are dumb they are the bad people real people. The good people all know that there are no tigers in the jungle. The Tigers are somewhere else. I do admit I love it anytime. We can put things in terms of big cat attacks. That always just seems to really help explain a topic you should know. I'm picturing nodar the real tiger but tony the Tiger Tony The tiger mauling and killing people. All right that works for me okay. So here's the question. If this hypothesis is correct why would it be the case that political charging of issues would make us unable to use our normal reasoning faculties. Well first of all I mean. Think about the Upton unclear quote. It's difficult to make. A person understands something when their salary depends on it here. We're not talking about a salary but about something else of immense psychic can material value and that is your membership status and standing within a social group that is in part defined by its commitment to certain moral all in political values. I think that's very much like salary. I mean salaries money. Money is life money happiness. I mean we say it's not but it is and then and then Better but it is the thing that allows us to eat and live and be in most circumstances certainly in the world that we've we've we've made and remade for ourselves and likewise equalize In a more primal since belonging to a group being part of the group that is that is survival for for the Homo sapiens. Yes that is how we have historically and pre historically managed to live it psychically necessary to us. It's necessary for us to have good mental end. In fact I think in some ways good physical health breath to be a member in good standing of a social group in a social network. But if you want to go into our you know our evolutionary history. It is literally literally materially necessary to be accepted as a member of the group. You're driven out of your hunter gatherer tribe. That things are not looking good for you. You're just waiting to fall into a tiger at that point right and so if all your friends and allies believe one way about any politically charged issue climate change or gun control or whatever and you put yourself at huge personal risk by advocating a position that that group disagrees with. You could be alienated from your Social Group. You could lose connections that you depend Don for mental health and survival thus you could definitely see identity protective cognition as a kind of mental immune system it protects the brain from beliefs chiefs. That could potentially cause you immense harm if you were to express them. The brain detects a belief for an idea that is a threat to your social identity and it I put up a wall against that belief and doesn't let it in because it could hurt you and I think we can all relate to this someone level or another you know. How many times have any of US said Ed? Why refuse to believe that or I find that hard to believe right And of course there are a lot of examples that come up In which the the issues relate more clearly lead to personal belief and and or just pure opinion artistic value for instance if a movie review or television viewer tells me that an upcoming Coen brothers movie isn't worth seeing. I generally find that hard to believe until I see it for myself and say in the case of inside Lou Davis I end up agreeing with what inside Lewin Davis it was wonderfully made. Prepare to be ostracized. It was wonderfully made but it was just not my cup of tea. Aw I loved it. I Love Oscar. Isaac with how man he. He's such a great singer to the music and it was. The music was was great. It just did not It did not made me happy sad in an interesting way you know I will. I will do my best not to fully alienate you and throw you out into the cold us. But that's one thing ultimately becoming down to art and personal opinion in there. I think there are going to be certain areas where you are going to be so attached to certain artistic values that you're gonNA feel reluctant to state it Because of how it might affect your standing in a group. Oh yes so. That's a different kind of variation unless there are some unpopular are aesthetic opinions. That you're not really scared to voice because you could abandon them if you needed to. Maybe but a really deeply held aesthetic preference that would be unpopular. You may be just. Don't even bring up. Yeah like imagine a band abandoning abandoning your favorite rock band in high. I school you know that sort of thing but but clearly you know a lot of these other issues are also going to be different matter say matters of hearsay or something. There's just not completely provable one way or another Say some bit of dirt on a political candidate that can either be confirmed nor denied but then we have to come back to those empirical questions. The ones where science can and does is weigh in on the matter. Yes and fortunately as the authors point out not that many empirical questions are really likely to trigger identity protective cognition only empirical questions that are unfortunate enough to get tagged as politically significant along. Partisan lines really acquired this taint For example you know there's been been a partisan divide over the HP vaccine probably because it has some kind of perceived relevance to sexual morality and young people but there's no partisan divide on the the use of antibiotics to treat bacterial infections and most questions are more like the antibiotics. There's just there's not a partisan divide about what you know temperature richer. Water boils or ninety nine percent of scientific questions. There's not really a partisan divide on though to come back to antibiotics. I see I see a dark future. I see there could be a time. Where if members of one major political party but not the other happened to start talking about antibiotics? I think you could quite easily see. Partisan Associations Arise antibiotics could go from an issue. That's non-politicised where pretty much everybody agrees to an issue. That suddenly is divided along partisan lines Not that seem sadly like the kind of thing we would do but to come back on the other side okay wait a minute. Don't people also have an incentive to have correct beliefs. Obviously right I mean right. Yeah I mean it. It definitely pays off to have a working realistic model of how the world works works that you live in but it pays off in some ways that are much more personally immediately relevant than others Depending on the issue think about it in policy policy relevant empirical questions like the impact of carbon emissions or the impact of gun control policies. The consequence of one individual person being wrong is vanishingly small but for that one person the consequence of being alienated from their identity group is potentially massive so on one decision decision you potentially cast one vote out of millions for a poorly reason to public policy and on the other decision you could alienate or weaken. Your most important friendships is your work relationships and even your sense of self And so the authors write quote persistent conflict over risks and other policy relevant facts reflects the tragedy of the Science Communications Commons they misalignment between the individual interests that culturally diverse citizens have informing beliefs that connects them to others who share their distinctive understanding of the best life in the collective interest that members of all such groups share in the enactment of public look policies that enable them to pursue their ends free from threats to their health and prosperity. Okay maybe we should take a quick break and when we come back we can take a look. Look at how we can compare these two hypotheses. The New Year is upon us. which resolutions do you plan to conquer and twenty twenty become more mindful or create create a healthier lifestyle through diet exercise and of course improved? Sleep the sleep number. 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GEICO is almost better than playing pickup basketball. Because there's always that guy who joins your game. He never passes the rock. He constantly bricks threes. And who completely hack you. And then put his hands up up and say no foul no foul with GYCO. It's easy to switch and save on car insurance. No need to fake. An ankle sprain because you're absolutely exhausted so switching save with GYCO. It's almost better than sports. Think all right. We're back so we're gonNA look at ways to compare these two offices now of course in all of this I can't think well why can't it be both. Why can't we can't we have like both of these these These reasons is in play. You mean that So we've got the to seize the science comprehension thesis which says the people come to incorrect beliefs about scientifically are are politically relevant empirical questions. Because they lack the scientific literacy skills to understand the issues and then the other one says it's not that they lack the skills to understand Dan the issues. It's that they are being selectively blinded from proper reasoning by Identity protective cognition that is socially conditioned right the idea ah coming back to seconds toolkit. It's like do I not have the tools or is there just this like this. There is a social psychological reason for not using the tools that I have. Well I think technically you could have both in a way so the question would be Can you show that these are are mutually exclusive and that would come through in the evidence but you certainly could would have A population that has fewer science comprehension skills. Then it could and so you could educate people in science better and we would have higher fire scientific comprehension skills but also within that population identity. Protective cognition could be highly salient. So that's a good question But if you want to these two hypotheses against each other you can create just create conditions. Where they're obviously going to be antagonistic? as far as the data's concerned and so here's one idea if the science comprehension thesis is correct right. The problem is a deficit and understanding science. People who are better at drawing incorrect conclusions from scientific data will be better at it whether or not the data concerns politically relevant issues right so it should mean that if the sat is correct the Science Cumbrian thesis. It should mean that if you have scientific understanding skills like numeracy which is skillet using zing numbers and drawing conclusions from From quantitative data if you have high numeracy you should be better at drawing the correct conclusions from data. Whether whether or not that data flatters your political perceptions On the other hand if the identity protective cognition thesis correct people who are better at drawing correct conclusions from scientific data. We'll see this skill significantly hampered by the introduction of a political identity threat all right so I have a feeling we're GONNA WE'RE GONNA look at some experiments. It's now Yes so. The experiment is Big Sample of one thousand one hundred and eleven demographically diverse ideologically diverse. US adults And you you sort them. According to a couple of major factors one is political ideology so they're sorted on On a scale of how liberal or Conservative they rate themselves and then the next says their numeracy skills determined by numeracy test the authors write quote a well established the highly studied construct numeracy encompasses not just mathematical ability but also a disposition to engage quantitative information in a reflective and systematic way and to use it to support valid inferences. So it's not just being good at math but it's being able to say look at data in the study and figure out what that data should tell you so. The authors came up with a couple of fictional experiments and they took the results of these fictional experiments and asked the participants to draw conclusions based on the results. They showed them now. Both the results of the fictional experiment and the talk of the experiment were manipulated to create different tests conditions so the same results were offered in the context of either being about quote the effectiveness of a new skin rash treatment. Eight men or quote the effectiveness of a ban on carrying concealed weapons in public. One of those is going to be more controversial than the other right. So what they're saying is they. They expect expect that the skin rash treatment is not going to have any partisan significance in less. I don't know Major. Republicans or Democrats start talking about skin rashes a lot but at at this point it was not politically relevant. The other is of course being about guns which is one of the most highly charged politically charged topics Where people break down along partisan artisan lines? Okay so imagine. You're one of the people who's the subject in this experiment. They will give you a Is a table of results to look at and it might say I'd say it's urine skin rash condition. It might a y'all table of four numbers and the different numbers represent patients. who did use a new skin cream and patients agents who did not use a new skin cream and then the other axes of the table will be patients whose rash got worse and patients whose rash got better and then you need to determine termine based on the numbers in the table whether the skin cream is more helpful or more harmful and then substitute in the exact same thing for instead of US patients this using a skin cream cities that did or did not ban carrying concealed handguns in public and instead of the rash getting worse or the rash? Getting better. It's crime went down or crime. Went up so the authors had three hypotheses three that they would test here one is that they guest subject scoring high in numeracy would be more likely cleaved. Get the right result in both skin treatment conditions and this pretty straightforward basically. They're saying people who have higher numeracy skills are more likely to use deliberate it system to thinking to work out the CO variance between the results and draw the correct conclusions. They're more likely to get the skin. Rash thing right hypothesis to is based on the science comprehension thesis so if the science comprehension thesis is correct they predict that subjects scoring higher in numeracy. Quote would be more likely to construed the data correctly actually not only when it was consistent with their ideological predispositions but also when it was inconsistent with them unless they were more likely to display less ideological ideological polarization than subjects lower in numeracy in other words on the science comprehension thesis. If you're better at understanding quantitative science your interpretation of the results colts of the gun ban thing should be less affected by political bias and then finally they have a third hypothesis based on the identity. Protective Cognition thesis quote ideological polarization in the gun ban conditions should be most extreme among those highest in numeracy under this hypothesis. People high in numeracy Morrissey are not immune from identity protective cognition and will like everyone else always seek ways to affirm their existing political beliefs but using losing their numeracy skills. They can use system to thinking to draw correct but counterintuitive inferences from the data win it flatters their beliefs chiefs but detect that. They should skip this and use quick heuristic to arrive at the wrong answer when that flatters their belief so so quote if high numeracy humorous subjects used their special cognitive advantage selectively only win doing so generates an ideologically congenial answer but not otherwise. They'll they'll end up even more polarized than their low numeracy counterparts. And so here we get to the results. So first thing worth noting is that detecting ovarian ends is difficult if you're not experienced in it so across all tests conditions. Most people got the answers. Wrong All tests conditions combine fifty nine percent subjects supplied the incorrect answer And this is probably because if you just look at the numbers and use a quick your ristic or system one thinking you're likely to draw the opposite correct conclusion you'd actually have to do the math in comparison ratios to come up with the correct answer but the results found hypothesis one. which was that if you're high ain't numeracy? You're you've got a better chance of getting the skin. Rash results correct that was supported by the data. The better yard numeracy the more likely you are to draw correct inferences. This is from politically neutral data. Though most people were not very good at this Hypothesis to which would be consistent with the scientific comprehension thesis says that people high in numeracy will show less polarization on the gun ban condition. This was not supported by the data. Conversely hypothesis three was was supported by the data. And and that was that people with high numeracy skills will show even more ideologically polarized judgments about the results in the gun ban condition addition and so what the authors conclude as high numeracy partisans used their skill selectively when a laborious system to calculation will yield results salts that are flattering to your political point of view. You'll do it but when you threaten your point of view you'll skit. You'll skip system to reasoning and just draw incorrect heuristic conclusions And so A few takeaways here. I think we should think about while we're discussing. This one is that I should stress. This study doesn't showed that science education and science communication efforts are pointless or bad or anything like that science comprehension skills including numeracy are crucial for answering answering all kinds of questions accurately when system one heuristic model would cause you to come to the wrong conclusion. So it's kind of the baseline right. You've gotta have scientific comprehension in skills but if these results are valid what they do show is that science comprehension skills are not necessarily protection against getting politically charged. Science questions is wrong because the brain uses it science comprehension skills selectively. It's more likely to bring out the big guns. If they will help it protect its identity. And it's more more likely to surrender to heuristic thinking if that's what protects your identity another way of putting it. Political identity can make you selectively bad at math. Even if you're normally good at math and so in this this is where we get into some of these areas where we see say an individual that that has a scientific background announed or PhD. Or what have you That UC showing up on the side of say climate change deniers or or even something more Ridiculous analyst like a like a like a flatter the belief system yeah I almost never see it with flatter beliefs but you do see it with climate. Change what you noticed with. Climate change changes that like Sometimes people will come up with lists of scientists who don't agree with the consensus on climate change and usually almost none of them work in fields fields relevant to climate change You know th. They're not like climate scientists. I'm not saying there are no climate. Scientists disagree but they're almost none right. They tend to be somebody about like one example. That often comes up and I honestly can't remember to what extent his disagreement is with it but say Freeman dyson is an individual of note. WHO has at least at at times cast some doubt in the area but is brilliant is Freeman dyson is in was and he's not a climate scientist right? It tends to be people commenting Outside their area of expertise and yet they still have the aura of credibility. Because it's like well. These are smart people there scientists right So you know you'll see a list of scientists Mantis who don't accept the the consensus on climate change. And they might be like petroleum engineers and stuff like that. So it's like it not like petroleum engineers aren't smart right. I mean I'm sure all all these people are very smart people. But it's just that having scientific comprehension skills does not protect you against arriving at Malan informed bad conclusions that support your identity now of course one of the tools Sagan's toolkit that had to do with replication. Yes so that's always a big question question and in fact I found one thing that I wanted to explore a real quickly if you follow psychology research and you saw something about motivated numeracy failing replication in a recent recent study. I think that's probably a reference to a conference paper draft presented in two thousand seventeen that claimed as part of its findings to failed to replicate the motivated evaded numeracy effect and then Dan Kahan and Ellen Peters two of the original authors of the first paper we were talking about in a twenty seventeen response defended their paper as best as I can tell quite successfully by pointing out that the study that failed to replicate the motivated reasoning effect Number one had a very small sample size and fifty fifty five and was ideologically homogeneous. It was basically ninety five percent liberal and in a paper called rumors of the non replication of the motivated numeracy effect. Act Are greatly exaggerated Kahan and Peter is they The so they they argue against this supposed- failed replication and they also present the results of their Own Replication attempt with a with a sample size of fifteen hundred ninety six in which they did successfully replicate the findings of the original very closely and so so As far as I can tell motivated numeracy through identity through identity. Protective cognition is still pretty solid. It looks solid to me and also as far as I can tell it's it's not just me defending a cherished beliefs that's important to my identity through motivated judgment. Because in fact I find I strongly dislike the idea of identity. Protective Cognition Mission I I think I would much rather live in the world of so many of our anthropogenic climate change accepting peers. And we're you know it's the world where if you could just educate okay. People enough with better science literacy skills. These dead end public disputes over pretty solid empirical. Science could be resolved. What means you could essentially win an argument over these issues by presenting facts presenting data? And that's how a lot of these people want it to be like that right SCIENC- People Wanna say say. Well I can. I'll just bring more evidence all show up with even more references next time and that'll get him but I'm afraid the evidence seems to be coming in that it doesn't necessarily summarily work that way. Maybe and you know we shouldn't be all or nothing in the way we talk about things different. Different types of appeals will work with different people but on average that does does not appear to be how people work are on that note. We're going to take a break. And when we come back working expand on the c the concept a little bit and talk about what can possibly be done nine and talk about Scott Steiner. Oh yes hi my name is Sebastian Maniscalco Pecorella and this is the Pete and Sebastian. podcast this is a show Joe. Beat night talk about our personal private lives just two guys. Hey I'm comedian. Pecorella and I met six years ago on a bus in Toronto is terrible. iheartradio was number one for podcast. Is that on purpose. Man that you go like step up. It doesn't say anywhere on doing the highest pitch voice. You have as fast as as you can. There's other podcasts. Out there that you probably listening to or watching. Listen people. I'm telling you right now. This is comedy gold. All right. We'll take the show to another level. Listen to the paid Sebastian. Show on the iheartradio APP apple podcast. Or wherever. Take your podcast. Hello bunnies. This is Maureen. You may know me from Chelsea lately. Shameless or as Regina. Listen Clairon insatiable. I WanNa tell you about my podcasts. Will you accept this rose which is new to the iheartradio podcast network. On this show we recap. Every season of the bachelor franchise inch is yes that includes the bachelor the Bachelorette and most importantly bachelor in paradise each episode. We bring amazing celebrity guests who are bachelor super fans to discuss discussed the show with us including Lance Bass Nikki. Glaser paget Brewster Debby Ryan Rob Benedict Lauren. lops Bryan Safi Fortune. TEAMSTER Thomas Middle Ditch. Theo von Beverley D.. Ngelo and more. If you watch the bachelor franchise you're GonNa love hanging with us. We get into the hot details of the show. You may have other choices and bachelor podcast but none that are this funny and we truly are fans listen to will you accept this rose on the iheartradio APP apple podcasts. Or wherever you get your podcasts casts our back so joe re familiar with a Scott Steiner before I mentioned to you. I was not tremendously familiar. But you sent me the best video I've seen all week. Yes so this. This was a video and this is readily available online because it it it kind of went viral rule and became its own name. But it's a video of professional wrestler Scott Steiner Aka big POPPA pump. Oh okay yeah well well I think I knew him better by that name. Yeah that was yeah. That was a moniker. He adopted at one point in. Its this is a clip from a wrestling promotion that was known in two thousand eight. Tna a promotions now called an impact and Steiner launched into a backstage promo that in typical pro wrestling. Fashion is all shouting and laced in Macho Bravado. Uh but in a twist. It's also full of math and statistics. He makes the highly rigorous. Yes yes and in this particular promo he makes the following claims. I'm just GonNa roll through these okay In a normal human voice laid on me. Okay so he points out. Normally a wrestler has a fifty fifty chance of winning a match. Okay all else being kosher. Okay Yeah but given his big POPPA pump superior genetics his opponent. Samoa Joe Only has a twenty five percent chance of winning. Oh no but it's a three way match as well and it involves Kurt angle so eat first participant here has a thirty three and a third percent chance of winning but he But since Kurt Angle. According to Steiner knows that he cannot win. He won't try so steiner presses the following quote so Samoa Joe you take your thirty three and one third chance minus my twenty five percent chance in you have an eight in one third chance of winning at sacrifice. Sacrifice being the name with the Pro Wrestling event. The when you take my seventy five percent chance of winning if we were to go one on one and then add sixty six and two thirds percents percents. I got one hundred forty one and two thirds chance of winning. It sacrificed see Samoa Joe. The numbers don't lie and they spelled disaster for you at that sacrifice December watch sacrifice. Were you there I did not. I was not I did watch some clips from it looks like it was a pretty hard hitting match. Interestingly Interestingly Enough Samoa Joe One oh man however Kurt angle was injured and had to be replaced by another wrestler so one assumes that that would have changed as the equation somewhat despite having a negative forty one percent chance of winning sheep one. So this Steiner says the numbers numbers. Don't lie or do they. Is this admittedly ridiculous. Example is this. Is the Scott Steiner falling prey to a lack of understanding regarding numerous or is it motivated. Numeracy is he just so highly motivated by his dislike of Samoa Joe and his belief in his own superior genetics so readily cleanest handles them That might be a better example of a mathematical incarnation of the dunning Kruger effect. Sure but This is where you believe that you have more fluency. That's the in a particular area than you actually do. Yes the WHO we we should. We should get into it. One time. Dunning Kruger effect. Because there's a I know there is as a more nuanced understanding of than you usually see when it's deployed in the media and stuff but the basic idea. Is that with done Krueger effect. If you are not very good lead within a skill set or within a knowledge domain you also lack the Meta cognitive capacities to understand what would make somebody good at it. Thus you oof failed to grasp your own shortcomings and thus people who are very low skilled or very low knowledge a certain domain tend to vastly overestimate tomat- their skills or their knowledge because they can't know they can't know what they don't know all right. Well I realized that this example was was maybe more entertaining than helpful. Still Oh my only opportunity to really work Scott Steiner into an episode. Come on. We've been plowing through a psychology paper. We've got to have a little wrestling. Lighten the load all right well. Well now that we've lighten the load. Let's let's come back to the big remaining question of If motivated numeracy is the key thing. That's happening here. This is the the enemy the threat. Then how do we deal with. Yeah like what what can be done and so I would take away from this research. Is that good science. Education and and science communication are necessary but not sufficient necessary but not sufficient to produce a correctly informed citizenry. You can't have people making good judgments without understanding the facts but the better they understand the facts. The more they'll use their understanding to support their identity derived point of view so Kahan and others proposed the way to beat. Motivated reasoning is not necessarily to improve the reasoning but to remove the motivation to remove the motivation. Like that reminds me so much of Krishna's words to Arjuna in the Hindu epic The bulk of GITA. Oh Yeah Yeah. Yeah if if if I may I'd like to read because having come from the quoting Scott Steiner. I obviously want to move on other high literature. Yes so this. These the words of Of Krishna the man alone is wise. Who keeps the mastery of himself? If one ponders on objects of the sense there springs attraction from attraction grows desire desire flames two fierce passion. Passion breeds recklessness. Then the memory all betrayed trade. Let's noble purpose. Go and saps the mind till purpose mind and man or all undone but if one deals with objects of the sense not loving and not hating making them serve his free soul which rests serenely Lord low such. A man comes to tranquility and doubted that tranquillity shall rise the end and healing of his earthly pains since the will governed sets the sole at peace. I'd say the will governed is much cheesier said than done isn't it. Oh Yeah that's why we've clearly were still struggling with it and you know and I don't want to you know. Obviously this is a work of literary significant instant. But yeah this idea of acting without passion seems to to line up reasonably well with this idea of tackling various innumerable problems without Bringing in this political motivation. Yeah though of course it seems. It's very unfortunate that I think a lot of this motivation comes in unconsciously right because I mean we we. I guess we haven't really addressed this so far but you have to assume the people are not generally really and you probably know from your own experience. At least it's like mine. They're not generally thinking like okay. How should I trick myself right now to come to the wrong conclusion because it would be socially acceptable? It doesn't feel like that to think about political issues that are empirical issues that are politically relevant. it just feels like well. I'm just trying to figure out what's right but obviously I must be doing this at least sometimes. Yeah we're just kind of we're we're we're swing through life. We're not necessarily thinking about the individual strokes. Yeah you know it all kind of comes together and we ended up making these mistakes and cognition and Tarim besides what the authors of that original paper. We're talking about. I mean in a way this. This is rational. It's rational impervious way. Not In a good way that ultimately creates the most benefit but any kind of short term perversity. It is rational. Like you'll sometimes uh-huh hear people talking about early minting in politics. How others just won't do what's rational be given a certain interpretation of rational self interest this irrational national relationship with empirical questions makes perfect sense the authors write quote? What any individual member of the public thinks about the reality of climate change the hazards hazards of nuclear waste disposal? The efficacy of gun control is too inconsequential to influence the risk. That that person or anyone he or she cares about faces aces nevertheless given what positions on these issues signify about a person's defining commitments forming a belief. At odds. With the one that predominates on it within the important affinity groups of which such person is a member could expose him or her to an array of highly unpleasant consequences. Thus like we know that it's radically consequential. What in general public policy is about climate change or gun policy or something you know these are hugely important questions? But the the impact of one individual person's opinion feel small enough that you basically the consequences of that or almost irrelevant. It's like like what's really relevant is. How is this affecting me and my day to day? And now it's primarily affecting you and your day to day is the social consequences of the beliefs you express but obviously that's what we want. We want everybody making rational decisions. Having correct empirical information to reason from of course they're still argue about political values but at least having everybody except the same set of correct facts when correct facts are on the table right. I mean a lot of it. Come Kinda comes down to the fact. That we are a short-sighted species basis that can barely see beyond her own horizon but but we are attempting to see beyond that arise and we are trying to to to maintain in the world or create a world that can be sustained in some fashion we you know the old adage of courses making thinking about your children and your grandchildren. Yeah when when you're making decisions such as days but historically it's not the sort of thing that we're great at as species and yeah and so it's is clearly not enough just to tell people like well. Here's the problem with how you're probably thinking you're probably doing identity protective cognition and you need to stop it. You know that that that's just obviously not going towards US asking somebody to shut their mind their ears off like Oh yeah. They're really gonNA listen to you. Now Buddy yeah I mean and then they're probably not even doing it on purpose us right. I mean you and I are doing it sometimes. We're not doing it on purpose. The people who do this. They're not doing it out of a will to deceive themselves is just happening. Is Part of what the brain does even unconsciously so the question is could you do something external. Could you create a state of affairs. That would change. Change the incentive structure do what the author said and somehow change the motivation. If you can't change the reasoning in motivated reasoning maybe you can change the motivation in motivated aided reasoning. So here's one thing I'm thinking about most politically relevant numeracy is basically recreational. Like you need to get the numbers right right when you're calculating your bank balance but if you get the numbers wrong when you're talking about gun. Control climate change there's no immediately detectable consequence to you as long long as you get them wrong. In the way that your social group approves of and this is not true of every person in every context for example why does scientists working within in their own fields Tend to usually to get the numbers right of course not always but usually like regardless of whatever their political opinions are if they're doing work within their field they tend to get it right most of the time well because they're going to be other scientists that are gonNA attempting to To perform the same experiment airman to see if they get the same results people reading it and if they see the error they are going to. They're going to correct them on it. I mean that's part of the process. Yeah there's a strong incentive to get the numbers right failed numeracy in your own published research is potentially a major blow to your credibility your career to your standing among your professional peers and stuff so I wonder if it's possible to change the incentive structure for non scientists to somehow be more like that this might be just completely impossible double fantasy but is there a way you could make it so the getting the factually correct answer is incentivized in social situations of lay people. Arriving at conclusions in agreement with your social group is not especially incentivized. Is that just totally unrealistic. Hope can human nature changed that much. How did he does some kind of daunting like you? Like what kind of structure system would Enforce that and then how does it. How do you roll it out successfully? I'm some I'm sure some Tech billionaire has some kind of nightmarish idea for an APP. That would do that but in fact we just destroy everything. They're also sort of black mirror. ESCA solutions solutions that. Come to mind but they all have like a black near S. Twist where you can see how screw things up or where people would essentially rebel against it and say you know what I don't. I don't really want FACEBOOK or twitter. Or what have you coming along and calling me on things that I've said that were incorrect in the past. Maybe I'll just white my account instead dead suffering that embarrassment. Yeah okay. Here's another idea. Maybe some way to fight the motivation. Perhaps this social support networks and instructors that are not dependent on ideological agreement like if people really strongly felt confident that their friendships and their work and family relationships were safe and would not suffer it all no degree of alienation or weakening of relationships from disagreement over political issues. Maybe that would remove the incentive. You've does that make sense. Like if people felt that they could disagree with their social group and not not risking anything by doing that than there would no longer be a protective -tective motivation. In what beliefs you hold to using basically make our social groups making the making them more open to free discussion and more accepting of disagreement. I guess I mean at least seems like a possibility And maybe the way maybe one way of addressing that is not that you can really changed just the nature of peoples family and friendship relationships like that all that much. But if you could have I don't know Supplemental Social Dynamics like this may be eighty one thing that community style groups like church congregations and things like that are useful for In that they provide sort of like outside outside of the family and the small friend group they provide like a backup social situation where you You can retreat. If you are feeling down in your other relationships ships though not to say that not church congregations I've ever made people feel alienated for disagreeing. Oh yeah I mean I guess. The thing you know I'm just saying like supplemental toll Social Safety Nets. I guess right. Well I could see where different group I mean. Different social groups can serve as the backup depending on. What's happening in your life? I mean I can imagine a scenario scenario in which certainly a church could be the the the fallback but also scenarios in which Work Social Group could be the fallback or just your your your your home life so your home social your family down through the father. All my friends are mad at me because of what I said about nuclear ways. At least I'm doing doing okay. Work I don't know like one of the idea that seems one of the ideas that comes to mind here is like you'd almost want to have social groups that are More adherent to scientific consensus. I hate to come back to that because ultimately if if that is is not present in In one of these social structures I mean. It's there's going to be a possibility that some other factor is going to be more pressing pressing in the world view and certainly one sees that in religious groups. I mean not all religious groups but there are certainly religious groups out there that have have beliefs leafs that Run very counter to scientific consensus down. Do they do so in a detrimental fashion. I mean that's it's going to depend. Yeah again I don I mean as with all these these questions like. Is there any way to actually engineer. That or is just impossible. Well no I think we have. We need to create a new religion. That's coming down to you know up. Yeah the an open discussion science. I religion They can just a sweep across the sweep across the land from short ashore and And and make a better world for the future. Well I'll let you carry the crook of priests in profit on that one Okay here's maybe one more way another. Ah Basically I'm just offering different ways. You could approach motivation problem. I don't know of any specifics that you could create. But here's another way of approaching it. What if there is a way to schofield facts from acquiring in the first place what Cahan and Co Authors call quote in Tag Mystic Cultural Meanings in other words if he can't fix publican understanding making people better at science comprehension? And you can't program people not to be incentivized. First and foremost by sense of partisan social belonging. Maybe the best way to protect facts is to find a way to never let them become politically charged in the first place. If there's so if somebody could figure out a way to do that or at least lessen the probability that would happen that also seems like a very useful a good way to fight this problem but it may I also be impossible because there's again political incentive for people to politicize certain issues the Ivy League con Kahane's definitely talked about this before. I believe he touched on the idea of of not necessarily like outright preventing but like a dignified when it is beginning to take place and in finding ways to intervene gene and keep it from being so highly politicized. Because it's like barnacles building up on a ship or something right yes Like when you detect and maybe you have a process for when you detect that a an empirical scientific question is starting to become an issue of political significance. Suddenly what you want is to get all the politicians ends and political actors to stop talking about it immediately and instead get a politically neutral celebrities in spokespeople and stuff to talk about it. Yeah Yeah I've got a pretty good idea. I think it probably has thirty three and one third percent chance of success. But if you add that to the forty six one half percent chance. It's getting Steiner Riddick. You might get up to one forty one and two thirds chance of winning. You know one of the things that the Han all all right in there Paper thought was really interesting. Is that They point out that People even when experts in other fields are primarily as humans experts. It's about quote identifying who knows what about what that's sort of is the main way our brains work right that's like our primary capacity is figuring out who who knows about what things right. Yeah I mean to come back to Sagan's point of view you know it's it should be less about trying to figure out WHO's the authority in this looking at. Who who is the best and expert in a given field and being able to sort of way what they're saying and what they're saying but oftentimes we use this capacity of looking at who knows what about and what not to figure out who has the real who's got the best expertise to offer but it's the best expertise is saying what I want to hear said exactly? Yes who is saying what I wanna hear said or what. My Social Group believes in the best way so I can say at the same way. Anyway you geniuses out there who who Who can think of more specific and possibly effective ways to undercut the motivation? Part of motivated reasoning and em- politically relevant empirical. Here questions would let us know. What are those ideas you have indeed? This is one of those areas where this this hypothesis is so new guy. I don't even think we probably have the science fiction action to level at it. The listener will be creating the science fiction of that. Might in some way. Inform what we actually do about it. Yeah this whole coalfield identity. Protective Cognition in away is still developing so more research could change. What seems to be true about it today but I duNNO I. It's one of those where I feel alike. I'm very interested in this research. But it's not necessarily encouraging I want to go back to the science comprehension thesis world. I WanNa live in the place where or you can just where you can just tell people. More share more knowledge with more enthusiasm modeled the correct kinds of critical thinking and all that and And bring people aboard right but it's just not that easy is right or it's just not enough. I mean it kind of comes back though again to the GITA and and other older works that taught hot about like self awareness because that's ultimately what we're talking about is new ways to become aware of how our brains or working in how in some cases aces we our brains. Our minds are tricking ourselves into Do clinging to beliefs that simply. Don't hold up. Yeah Oh in one of the things. Of course we've always got to mention. We mentioned this in pretty much any time. We talk about bias or something. You're sitting out there thinking right now. Yeah this is what other people do but it's it quits. We can all too example in our own lives big ones small ones. You can't recognize. Don't even know you do. Yeah exactly exactly got to remove that plank or I will on that note. We're going to go and close out this episode of as always head on over to stuff to blow your mind dot com because that is our mothership mothership. 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Dan Kahan Upton Sinclair Scott Steiner Tigers apple Carl Sagan WanNa Lexus Chelsea Social Group Sebastian Maniscalco Pecorella Kenya cancer Robert Lamb Charles Dickens writer California LEXUS DOT
Motivated Numeracy and the Politics-ridden Brain

Stuff To Blow Your Mind

1:09:22 hr | 2 years ago

Motivated Numeracy and the Politics-ridden Brain

"Fundraise is the future of real estate investing? That's right fund rise delivers the kind of investing power, you usually only see giant institutions bringing real estate's unique potential for long term growth in cash flow to individual investors, getting started as simple unusually takes less than five minutes. When you invest you'll be instantly diversified across dozens of real estate projects each one carefully vetted, an actively managed by fund rises team of real estate pros van you can use their intuitive investor dashboard and real time reporting system to monitor the progress of each property within your portfolio, that's the future of real estate investing. So if you're ready to get started, visit fund rise dot com slash mind. That's F U N D R I, E dot com slash mind to have your first three months of fees. Waived again, that's fun dries dot com slash mind. Welcome to stuff to blow your mind from how stuff works com. Hey, what stuck to blow your mind? My name is Robert. And I'm Joe McCormack. And Robert I wanna hit you with a, quote, I'm sure you've heard this one a million times before it's a quote from the American writer Upton Sinclair, and the cool goes like this. He says it is difficult to get. Amanda, understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it. But that's pretty apt. I'm not sure I'd actually heard that one before. But but that certainly has a ring of truth to it, really. You never heard that heard that when people roll that out all the time when they're talking about, you know, industry Schillt's made spokespeople PR types. Yeah. Yeah. So Upton Sinclair ran for governor of California in the nineteen thirties, and he claimed in a campaign retrospective that he used to tell his rally audiences this. And I it's a great line. There's plenty of truth to it. Right. Yeah. By the way, for anyone who's not familiar Upton Sinclair lived eighteen seventy eight thousand nine hundred sixty eight and he was the author of the jungle and perhaps more known to some of our. Listeners for his nineteen twenty seven story oil, which was loosely adapted into the two thousand seven film. There will be blood always going to be remembered for a movie I but did he also right? Boogie nights. The original version. Maybe. So maybe so, but not just an author, but also a politician. Yes. So he was used to talking about issues of public policy. I mean, he was a politically concerned writer, I think a lot of times people put him in categories like like with Charles Dickens, you know, somebody who's known for writing fiction, but also for exposing the plight of the politically disadvantaged, and so yeah, the this quote comes up a lot like if you're talking about a lawyer representing big tobacco back in the day. Who'd come on TV and say the science isn't settled yet, there's no proof cigarettes caused cancer or maybe a coal industry lobbyists. Maybe literally the same exact person comes on TV. If you decades later and says, don't listen to the climate alarmist there, scientists some both sides gain climate change isn't settled yet when you're hearing from people like this who are like paid to represent a particular point of view. You don't have to be a super skeptic to realize you shouldn't just take their word for it. But people who get paid to tell you that the grass is pink in the. Guy is green. We're going to keep saying that, you know, you're not going to change their mind by offering them evidence or making good points or something because they're not here to figure out. What's true? They're here to say their lines. See, I'm I'm always reminded of the the doctor character who had inevitably show up in the late night infomercials for various products. Right. Clearly, they didn't just do a cold. Call and get get somebody in there to to to show for this product only Marlboro stimulates your cues own when it comes to people like that. I guess this is kind of a tangent. But when when it comes to like people who she'll for a particular point of view or spokespeople for some kind of line on TV I always kinda wonder like do they end up really truly believing the thing that they're paid to say. Or is there some kind of cognitive dissonance in their brain. I don't know what it's like to be in that mind. Yes. That's a great question though. Because I mean, it's one thing for just like an individual to endorse a product, you know? Oh, yeah. Like reading. An ad or even as saying, hey, I tried out this product, it's really great. You guys should give it a try as well, which obviously we do on the show. But, but, but when you get to that level or you have an expert when you have say a medical doctor appearing on an infomercial, or appearing even in some sort of governmental body and saying, yes, I stake my reputation on this. I state my professional expertise off put it on the line in support of this product or this industry, and directly contradicting what appears to be the preponderance of the evidence. Yes, right. That that's what these industry Shiels come out to do. Right. They come out to tell you that the scientists are wrong. But anyway, given evidence that has emerged in recent years. I think maybe later on episode. We should come back and try to do an updated version of this Upton Sinclair, quote, because I think that the scope of this quote is actually to limited but just focusing on the salaries, so so we'll come. Back to this. But today, we're going to be talking about a form of motivated reasoning form of motivated reasoning called motivated numeracy. And specifically how that relates to the idea of identity, protective cognition, and this is come up on the show before we talked about it in an episode while back called science communication breakdown. I think that was like a year and a half ago or so I believe so. Yeah. But it was based on when you had gone to the world science festival and seen talk that included the work of the Yale psychologist, Dan Kahan. Who is he does a lot of really interesting research about biases and motivated reasoning and the ways in which our brains failed to be rational in one way, sometimes by being sort of subversively rational in another way. Yeah. Isn't it? Interesting. How we sometimes as seem to outsmart ourselves these matters. Yeah. So I want to start by thinking about two different kinds of disagreements that come up when people talk about politics. Obviously, lots of different ways. People can disagree about politics here, two different kinds of currently politically, relevant statements. One is somebody who says the government shouldn't have a right to tax my income. Right. You might talk to a libertarian who says. And then here's a different politically relevant statement human activity is the primary driver of global climate change. Now people have political arguments over statements like both of these to all the time. But these are not at all the same kind of statement one big difference is that the first statement is a statement about values like you can't do a bunch of empirical experiments to determine if it's correct or not that the government should be allowed to tax people. That's just a question about what you believe should be the case, what about values and priorities and about the priorities of the person making the statement. Right. It's it's a it's a commentary on how you think or how one group thinks politics should work or how government should work rather? And we shouldn't be confused by the idea of political science political science, though, a serious field is a different matter compared to the natural sciences. Well, it's certainly true that with questions about like whether. Not you should tax income. You can approach that question from the point of optimizing for certain goals like you specify goal, and you compare different methods of achieving that goal then you can do that. But like absent all of that kind of framework. That's just a statement about values on the other hand that you've got the human activity is the primary driver of global climate change that statement is not like that. There simply is a fact of the matter either human activity is the primary cause of global climate change or it, isn't and you can do empirical experiments to test this hypothesis. And of course, the answer is. Yes, we now know that it is the primary driver of global climate change with like a, you know, ninety something percent certainty, we really really strongly. No, this this is undoubtedly the scientific consensus, even though this question is politically controversial, it's not scientifically controversial. And if you doubt, this you actually have the ability to go look up the evidence yourself, especially that's one thing that the internet is great for you can go read the most. Recent IPC report, you can read the thousands of individuals studies you can look at the data and read the climate. Scientists own words about how their conclusions drawn from the data of their experiments, and if you actually do that, I think any reasonable person should be able to conclude, of course, human activities the primary cause of climate change. And yet that's not what happens is it questions. Like this remain politically controversial with people often judging the answer in a way that aligns with their political identity. Now speaking politics, I just wanna throw a quick fact Lloyd here about the episode we were recording this on election day, it will be published after election day. So yeah. So we don't know what the outcome's gonna be. Yeah. So so none of this. None of this is a commentary on things that have not yet occurred as of this recording. Yeah. And it's not really a commentary on politics per se commentary on psychology really the that is going to be at play in people of all political. Suasion xactly. So I think we should turn to look at the the big paper that we're going to be focusing on in this episode. The the lead author was was Dan Kahan, but the other authors include Ellen Peters. Eric Cantrell, Dawson pulse. Slow Vic in this cold motivated, numeracy and enlightened self government published in behavioral public policy. I think first published in two thousand thirteen revised in two thousand seventeen and they start off by observing the same kind of thing. We've just been talking about that. Obviously there questions where people can argue about their political values. But the politics is also full of these arguments about purely empirical questions many of which are no longer. In fact, empirically controversial like is climate change driven by greenhouse gas emissions. The answer is yes. But this is still politically controversial other questions like this. The the give a big list of them. One would be like could we improve public safety by storing nuclear waste deep underground. And that one is the yes as well. Believe that's one. That was brought up in the the panel ruled signs festival that Kahan spoke on. Yeah. And that was one that actually I seem to be more divisive. They kind of pulled the audience there at the world science festival. So, you know, for the most part, very informed and curious bunch, right? But even day, we're not as well informed on this issue as they were on some of these other issues we're talking about here. Yeah. Now, not all of these questions are going to be as settled with his much confidence as other ones on. So like, we have a very high confidence now that greenhouse gas emissions driving climate change. But there could be other questions that are in theory empirical, even if we don't have a scientific consensus yet. I honestly don't know where this this next question falls in whether it's more settled or less settled. But other questions would include things like do gun control measures, reduce violent crime or increase. It does public spending in the aftermath of an economic recession increase the length. The recession or shorten it. And so with some of these questions, we don't always yet know the correct answer. But they are at least empirical you can do tests, and you can gather data, and you can find with some degree of confidence that there is a correct answer. It's not just going to be an endless contest values. Yes. It's in the domain of science and science can have at it. One of the interesting things about a lot of these questions is that they for some reason almost always seem to concern questions or perceptions of risk. I guess maybe. That's just what politics is about. Yeah. I think there is a lot of risk analysis in politics. I mean, obviously, there's there's there's always a certain amount of fear mongering as well. Like, how do you? How do you capitalize on the sort of risks that that voters are considering how do you potentially stir up the flames or or or tamp them down a bit depending on what kind of reaction you're looking for. Well, I guess you could look at many major policy decisions as. As conflicts between perceptions of different kinds of risks. Right. Like, so somebody will say, well, there's a certain amount of risk where running by not doing anything about global climate change here the things that could result. And somebody else says, yes. But if we do something about it we risk. I don't know we risk not making enough money or something or per per perhaps. It's yeah, we risk hurting ourselves in the short term or what a lot of times short term risk versus long term risk immediate risk versus more elusive risks. Yeah. Now, obviously when you look at these questions that have been pretty convincingly answered with empirical evidence and yet intense disagreement persists in politics. This obviously, isn't helpful like there's enough under dispute over what values should drive public policy that it really doesn't help to add to that like unnecessary dead in disputes about underlying empirical facts when the science or the facts are actually pretty clear. So the question is why how come you can have a question. Listen where the evidence is very clear such as the cause of climate change being related to the burning fossil fuels. But the public not being in general greement about it. And this this paper looks at two major competing hypotheses to explain this. Like, why people don't accept the facts when the facts are pretty clear, and the first one is the hypothesis they called the science, comprehension thesis or the SC T. And basically, it goes like this the public in general has a pretty weak understanding of science, we are likely to misunderstand. What scientists are telling us if you put a scientific paper in front of us. We're probably not gonna understand it. Those were likely to be misled by people who are trying to deceive us to their own advantage. And I think unfortunately, or well, I don't want to pre-empt what we get to in a bit. But I I guess we could say, unfortunately, this hypothesis is pretty common among skeptics and science enthusiasts and even scientists themselves, and I feel myself very drawn to it. Because if you accept that the problem is we're just not scientifically literate enough to understand what's being talked about in a way, this is actually kind of hopeful, especially if you're an educator or a science communicator because the problems simply a lack of knowledge there's just a deficit that can be made up. And so if you just, you know, community give people better scientific education better communication of the scientific reality under this hypothesis. If you just teach people better scientific literacy skills, they will finally see the light and come around and accept the empirically verifiable facts. Yeah, there's hoping this because you can you can teach people about science you can you can teach people more that logical thinking as well. And the of course, I think that's clearly part of scientific literacy as well. But but I can't help but think back to for instance, Carl Sagan's discussion of on the the baloney detection kit, like the problem is people don't have the kit online, right or they don't have all the two. Goals in the kit, for instance, just just to blow through these really quickly. He goes into more detail on the demon haunted world, but the nine tools are again abbreviated number one whenever possible there must be independent confirmation of the facts facts in quotation months number to encourage a substantive debate on the evidence by knowledgeable proponents of all points of view. Okay. I remember since. Yeah. Number three arguments from authority carry little weight thority have made mistakes in the past. They will do. So again in the future in science. There are no with authorities at most. There are experts in K number four spin more than one hypothesis. Okay. Number five, try not to get overly attached to a hypothesis. Just because it's yours. Allen's hard. Yeah. Immer six quantify if whatever it is you're explaining has some measure, some numerical quantity attached to it. You'll be much better able to discriminate among competing hypotheses. This is why numbers are often useful in science. Yeah. Right. Number seven. If there's a chain of argument every link in the chain must work, including the premise. Not just most of them number eight autumn's razor, this is basically when you have a two hypotheses that explain data equally. Well, you choose the simpler of the two right? So like a dream or a hallucination is probably a better explanation for your alien abduction experience, then aliens coming here. Exactly. And then finally the ninth tool in the baloney detection kit, always ask whether the hypothesis can be at least in principle falsified propositions that are untenable or unfalsifiable are not worth much. That's a really good kit. And I think Carl Sagan I don't want to put words in his mouth. But I do think he he seems to operate from that kind of hopeful scientific, comprehension thesis point of view, at least as best I can tell it seems like he thinks, you know, the problem with the lack of scientific skepticism among the people is just the they need access to better tools like this. And if we can communicate those tools to them they can bring them online, and then they'll be more protected against the. Titular baloney. Yeah. I think so now back to this paper, the authors write that on this hypothesis on the science, comprehension thesis, the lack of comprehension skill causes people to over rely on. What's what's known as system? One thinking when judging empirical scientific questions like perceptions of risk now, we should mention a little bit about the difference between these concepts of system one thinking in system to thinking this is big in the works of people like Daniel conham on who've written about behavioral economics and the psychology of bias and stuff. That's right. It was key to his two thousand eleven book thinking fast and slow and we've talked about system one thinking system to thinking on the show before I think so. Yeah. The basic explanation here system one thinking is all about fast automatic frequent emotional stereotypical and unconscious thinking this is the third. This is rule by heuristic shortcut ways of thinking when you when you look at two piles of things in wanna know how many? You know, which pile has more things in it. If you just judged by eyeball, it that system one system two thinking would be what maybe you count the things in the pile. Right. It is slow effort full infrequent logical calculating and conscious issue reminds me a lot of the the to fear networks recently discussed on the show. Yeah. In the the slayer episode. Yeah. System to is all about avoiding the tiger haunted thickets while if you rely on system one, then you're more of a tiger racer tiger boxer or just I guess just a straight up tiger denier. And you know, both of those systems are necessary actually because we don't always have time to do deliberate slow logical calculating conscious thought a lot. You know, if we did that about every decision we made we couldn't live that would be no way to survive you have to be fast and reactive and unconscious about all kinds of things. And so the question is how do you choose which types of decisions and scenarios to apply? These. Different thinking schema to on the science, comprehension thesis. I think the ideas that people are relying on system. One thinking to answer empirical questions about science that are politically relevant, whereas they should be using their system to thinking to get through the get through the fast reactive stereotypical thinking and come to the correct answer. Fun. Fact, we used to be owned by a company that called itself system one named after this the this mode of thinking, but that's not the only hypothesis on offer. That's the science, comprehension thesis. The other hypothesis the rival hypothesis is what if the problem with controversies over empirical questions is not that they're caused by a deficit of knowledge or cognitive skill. And this other idea the authors called the identity, protective, cognition thesis or the ICT they write quote, whereas SETI attributes conflicts over decision relevant science to deficits inside. Science comprehension, ICT sees the public's otherwise intact capacity to comprehend decision relevant science as disabled by cultural and political conflict. In other words. It's not that people can't understand the science. It's that they could understand the issue if they were not politically charged, and it is specifically the political charging of the issue that makes it impossible for them to understand what they otherwise might be able to. All right. So I have to try and put this into tiger terms. Okay. So it's like having the capabilities to avoid. Tiger kills owns but refusing to do so for political reasons, right. Yes. All your friends around. You maybe are saying like, oh, no. The the people who say that. The Tigers hang out in the jungle are dumb. They are the bad people real people. The good people all know that there are no Tigers in the jungle. The Tigers are somewhere else. I do admit I love it. Anytime we can put things in terms of big. Cat attacks that always just seems to really help. Explain a topic. You should know. I'm picturing not a real tiger. But Tony the tiger. Tony the tiger mauling and killing people. All right. That works for me. Okay. So here's the question. If this hypothesis is correct. Why would it be the case that political charging issues would make us unable to use our normal reasoning faculties? Well, first of all, I mean think about the Upton Sinclair, quote, it's difficult to make a person understands something when their salary depends on it here. We're not talking about a salary, but about something else of immense, psychic and material value, and that is your membership status and standing within a social group that is in part defined by its commitment to certain moral and political values. I think that's very much like salary. I mean salaries money money is life money is happiness. I mean, we say it's not, but it is. And then and then, but, but it is the thing that allows us to eat and live in be in most circumstances, certainly. In the world that we've we've we've made and remade for ourselves. And likewise in a more primal since belonging to a grouping part of a group that is that is survival for for the homo sapiens, yet is that is how we have historically in pre historically manage to live. It's psychically necessary to us. It's necessary for us to have good mental end. In fact, I think in some ways good physical health to be a member in good standing of a social group a social network, but if you want to go into our, you know, our our evolutionary history, it is literally materially necessary to be accepted as a member of the group. Fear driven out of your hunter gatherer tribe that things are not looking good for you. You're just waiting to fall into a tiger thicket at that point. Right. And so if all your friends and allies believe one way about any politically charged issue climate, change or gun control, or whatever. And you put yourself at huge personal risk by advocating a position that that group disagree. As with you could be alienated from your social group. You could lose connections that you depend on for mental health and survival thus you could definitely see identity protective, cognition as a kind of mental immune system it protects the brain from beliefs that could potentially cause you immense harm if you were to express them. The brain detects a belief for an idea that is a threat to your social identity, and it puts up a wall against that belief and doesn't let it in. Because it could hurt you, you know, and I think we can all relate to this someone level or another. You know, how many times have any of us said why refuse to believe that or I find that hard to believe, right? Of in. Of course, there are a lot of examples that come up in which the issues relate more clearly to personal belief in and or just pure opinion, artistic value, for instance, the movie review or television reviewer tells me that an upcoming Coen brothers movie isn't worth seeing I generally find that hard to believe until I see it for myself and say in the case of inside Lou and Davis, I ended up agreeing with what inside Lewin Davis. It was wonderfully made for pair to be Auster Cise, but you know, it was wonderfully made, but it was just not my Cup of tea. I loved it. I love Oscar Isaac with how man he he's such a great singer to the music, and it was the music was was great. It just did did not it did not make me happy. Well, that would make me sad in an interesting way of I I I will I will do by best not to fully alienate you and throw you out into the cold. So, but that's one thing right automatically coming down to art and personal opinion. And India, I think there are going to be certain areas where you are going to be so attached to certain artistic values that you're gonna feel reluctant to state it because of how it might affect your standing in a group. Oh, yes. So that's a different kind of variation. Like, there are some unpopular or aesthetic opinions that you're not really scared to voice because you could abandon them if you needed to maybe, but a really deeply held as thank preference that would be an unpopular. You may be just don't even bring up. Yeah. Like, imagine abandoned, abandoning abandoning your favorite rock band in high school, you know, that sort of thing, but, but clearly, you know, a lot of these other issues are also going to be different matter say matters of hearsay or something there's just not completely provable one way or another say some bit of dirt on a political candidate that can either be confirmed nor denied, but then we have to come back to those imperial questions the ones where science can and. Does weigh in on the matter. Yes. And fortunately as the authors point out, not that many empirical questions are really likely to trigger identity, protective, cognition only empirical questions that are unfortunate enough to get tagged as politically significant along partisan lines really acquired this taint. For example. You know, there's been a partisan divide over the HP vaccine probably because it has some kind of perceived relevance to sexual morality and young people. But there's no partisan divide on the use of antibiotics to treat bacterial infections and most questions are more like the antibiotics, there's just there's not a partisan divide about at what you know, temperature water boils or ninety nine percent of scientific questions. There's just not really a partisan divide on though to come back to antibiotics. I see I see a dark future. I see. There could be a time where if members of one major political party, but not the other happened to start talking about antibiotics, I think you could quite easily. See partisan associations arise in antibiotics could go from an issue. That's non-politicised where pretty much everybody agrees to an issue that suddenly is divided along partisan lines that that seems sadly like the kind of thing we would do but to come back on the other side. Okay. Wait a minute. Don't people also have an incentive to have correct beliefs. Obviously. Right. I mean, right. Yeah. I mean, we it definitely pays off to have a working realistic model of how the world works that you live in. But it pays off in some ways that are much more personally immediately relevant than others, depending on the issue think about it in policy relevant. Empirical questions like the impact of carbon emissions or the impact of gun control policies. The consequence of one individual person being wrong is vanishingly small. But for that one person the consequence of being alienated from their identity group is potentially massive. So on one. Decision. You potentially cast one vote out of millions for a poorly reason to public policy in on the other decision, you could alienate or weaken your most important, friendships, your work relationships, and even your sense of self. And so the authors write quote persistent conflict over risks and other policy relevant facts reflects a tragedy of the science communications Commons a misalignment between the individual interests. That culturally diverse citizens have informing beliefs that connect them to others who share their distinctive understanding of the best life in the collective interests. That members of all such groups share in the enactment of public policies that enable them to pursue their ends free from threats to their health and prosperity. Okay. Maybe we should take a quick break. And when we come back, we can take a look at how how we can compare these two hypotheses. Hey, everybody real estate. Investing is known for a lot of things mainly making a select group of people a lot of money, but being an online cutting edge experience, it's usually not one of its hallmarks. Well, that is no longer. The case fund arise is the future of real estate investing their revolutionary model is transforming the industry. 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So yeah, we're gonna look at ways to compare these two hypotheses now, of course in all of this. I can't help. But think we'll why can't it be both. Why can't what will we can't? We have like both of these these these reasons in play you mean that. So we've got the to seize the science, comprehension thesis, which says that people come to incorrect beliefs about scientifically are politically relevant empirical questions because they lack the scientific literacy skills to understand the issues. And then the other one says it's not that they lack the skills to understand the issues. It's that they are being selectively blinded from proper reasoning by identity, protective, cognition that is socially conditioned, right? The idea of coming back to Sagan's toolkit. It's like do. I not have the tools or is there. Just this like this. There is a social and psychological reason for not using the tools that I have. Well, I think technically you could have both in ways. So the ques-. Question would be can you show that these are usually exclusive and that would come through in the evidence, but you certainly could have a population that has fewer science comprehension skills, then it could. And so you could educate people in science better, and we would have higher scientific comprehension skills, but also within that population identity, protective, cognition could be highly salient. So that's a good question. But if you want to pit these two hypotheses against each other, you can create just create conditions where they're obviously going to be antagonistic as far as the data's concerned. So here's one idea if the science, comprehension, these is correct, right? The problem is a deficit and understanding science people who are better at drawing correct conclusions from scientific data will be better at it. Whether or not the data concerns politically relevant issues. Right. So it should mean that if the SETI is correct the science, comprehension. Jesus it should mean that if you have scientific understanding skills like numeracy, which is skill at using numbers and drawing conclusions from from quantitative data. If you have high numeracy, you should be better at drawing, the correct conclusions from data whether or not that data flatters, your political perceptions on the other hand, if the identity protective, cognition thesis is correct people who are better at drawing correct conclusions from scientific data will see this skill significantly hampered, but the introduction of a political identity threat. All right. So I have a feeling we're gonna we're gonna look at some experiments now. Yeah. So the experiment is big sample of one thousand one hundred and eleven demographically diverse in ideologically diverse US adults, and you sort them, according to a couple of major factors one is political ideology. So they're sorted on on a scale of how liberal or conservative they rate themselves. And then the next is their numeracy skills determined by numerous. Test the authors, write quote, a well established and highly studied construct numeracy encompasses not just mathematical ability, but also a disposition to engage quantitative information in a reflective and systematic way and to use it to support valid inferences. So it's not just being good at math. But it's being able to say look at data in the study and figure out what that data should tell you. So the authors came up with a couple of fictional experiments. And they took the results of these fictional experiments and asked the participants to draw conclusions based on the results, they showed them now both the results of the fictional experiment. And the topic of the experiment were manipulated to create different tests conditions. So the same results were offered in the context of either being about quote, the effectiveness of a new skin rash treatment or quote, the effectiveness of a ban on carrying concealed weapons in public. One of those is going to be more controversial than the other. Right. So what they're saying is they they expect that the skin rash. Treatment is not. I'm going to have any partisan significance in less. I don't know. Major Republicans or Democrats start talking about skin rashes a lot. But at this point, it was not politically relevant. The other is of course, being about guns, which is one of the most highly charged politically charged topics where people break down along partisan lines. Okay. So imagine you're one of the people who's a subject in this experiment. They will give you a a table of results to look at. And it might say say, it's your in the skin rash condition. It might you'll have a table of four numbers and the different numbers represent patients who did use a new skin cream and patients who did not use a new skin cream. And then the other axes of the table will be patients whose rash got worse and patients whose rash got better. And then you need to determine based on the numbers in the table. Whether the skin cream is more helpful or more harmful and then substitute in the exact same thing for instead of us patients using skin cream cities that did or. Did not ban carrying concealed handguns in public. And instead of the rash getting worse or the rash. Getting better. It's crime went down or crime went up. So the authors had three hypotheses three that they would test here. One is that they guest subjects scoring high in numeracy would be more likely to get the right result in both skin treatment conditions, and this is pretty straightforward. Basically. They're saying people who have higher numeracy skills are more likely to use deliberate system to thinking to work out the co variance between the results and draw the correct conclusions. They're more likely to get the skin rash thing. Right hypothesis to is based on the science, comprehension thesis. So if the science comprehension thesis is correct they predict that subject scoring higher and numeracy, quote would be more likely to construed the data correctly. Not only when it was consistent with their ideological predispositions. But also when it was inconsistent with them unless they were likely to display less ideological polarization than subjects lower. In numeracy. In other words on the science, comprehension thesis. If you're better at understanding quantitative science, your interpretation of the results of the gun ban thing should be less affected by political bias. And then finally they have a third sus based on the identity, protective, cognition thesis, quote ideological polarization in the gun ban conditions should be most extreme among those highest in numeracy under this hype. Asus people high in numeracy are not immune from identity, protective, cognition and will like everyone else always seek ways to affirm their existing political beliefs, but using their numeracy skills they can use system to thinking to draw. Correct. But counter intuitive inferences from the data win it flatters their beliefs, but detect that they should skip this and use quick heuristic to arrive at the wrong answer when that flatters their belief. So well, so quote, if high numeracy subjects used their special cognate. Native advantage selectively only when doing so generates an ideologically congenial answer, but not otherwise they'll end up even more polarized than their low numeracy counterparts. And so here we get to the results. So first thing worth noting is that detecting Cova Syrians is difficult. If you're not experienced in it so across all tests conditions. Most people got the answers wrong all tests conditions combined. Fifty nine percent of subjects supplied the incorrect answer. And this is probably because if you just look at the numbers and use a quick Ristic or system. One thinking, you're likely to draw the opposite of the correct conclusion you'd actually have to do the math and compare some ratios to come up with the correct answer. But the results found hypothesis one which was that if you're high in numeracy, you're you've got a better chance of getting the skin rash results. Correct. That was supported by the data the better yard numeracy. The more likely you are to draw. Correct. Inferences from politically neutral data though. Most people were not very good at this hypothesis to and which would be consistent with these. Scientific comprehension thesis that people high in numeracy will show less polarization on the gun ban condition. This was not supported by the data. Conversely, hypothesis three was supported by the data. And and that one was that people with high numeracy skills will show even more ideologically polarized judgments about the results in the gun ban condition. And so what the authors conclude is the high numeracy partisans used their skills selectively when a laborious system to calculation will yield results that are flattering to your political point of view, you'll do it. But when it threatens your point of view, you'll skip it you'll skip system to reasoning and just draw incorrect heuristic conclusions and so a few takeaways here. I think we should think about while we're discussing this one is that I should stress. This study doesn't show that science education and science commune. Station efforts are pointless or bad or anything like that science, comprehension skills, including numeracy are crucial for answering all kinds of questions accurately when a system one heuristic model would cause you to come to the wrong conclusion. So it's kind of the baseline, right? You've gotta have scientific comprehension skills. But if these results are valid what they do show is that science comprehension skills are not necessarily a protection against getting politically charged science questions wrong because the brain uses it science comprehension skills selectively, it's more likely to bring out the big guns. If they will help it protect its identity, and it's more likely to surrender to heuristic thinking, if that's what protects your identity another way of putting it political identity can make you selectively bad at math. Even if you're normally good at math. And so in this we this is where we get into some of these areas where we see say, you know, an individual that that has a scientific background or PHD. What have you? That you see showing up on the side of say climate change, the Nyerere's or or even something more ridiculous. Like a like a like a flatter the belief system. Yeah. I almost never see it was flat earth beliefs. But you do see it with climate change. Definitely what you notice with climate change is that like sometimes people will come up with lists of scientists who don't agree with the consensus on climate change. And usually almost none of them work in fields relevant to climate change. You know, the they're not like climate scientists. I'm not saying there are no climate scientists that disagree. But they're almost none. Right. They tend to be somebody like one example that often comes up, and I honestly can't remember to what extent his disagreement is with it. But say Freeman Dyson is an individual of note who has at least at times cast some doubt in the area, but is brilliant. As is Freeman Dyson isn't was he's not a climate scientist, right? It tends to be people commenting outside their area of expertise. And yet they still have the aura of credibility because it's like, well, these are smart people there, scientists, right? So, you know, you'll see a list of scientists who don't accept the the consensus on climate change. And they might be like petroleum engineers and stuff like that. You know? So it's like, not like petroleum engineers, aren't smart. I mean, I'm sure all all these people are very smart people. But it's just that having scientific comprehension skills does not protect you against arriving at Malan formed bad conclusions that support your identity now, of course, one of the tools and Sagan's toolkit ahead to do with replication. Yes. So that's always a big question. And in fact, I found one thing that I wanted to explore real quickly. If you follow psychology research and you saw something about motivated numeracy failing replication in a recent study, I think that's probably a reference to a conference paper draft presented in two thousand seventeen that claimed as part of its findings to failed to replicate the motivated numeracy effect. And then. Dan, Kahan and Ellen Peters. Two of the original authors of the first paper, we were talking about in two thousand seventeen response defended their paper as best as I can tell quite successfully by pointing out that the study that failed to replicate the motivated reasoning affect number one had a very small sample size in fifty five and was ideologically homogeneous. It was basically ninety five percent liberal and in a paper called rumors of the non replication of the motivated numeracy effect are greatly exaggerated Kahan, and is they so they they argue against this supposed failed replication, and they also present the results of their own replication attempt with a with a sample size of fifteen hundred ninety six in which they did successfully replicate the findings of the original very closely. And so as far as I can tell motivated numeracy through identity through identity, protective, cognition is still pretty solid. It looks solid to me. And also as far as I can tell it's not just me defending, cherished belief. If that's important to my Dimity through motivated judgment. Because in fact, I find I strongly dislike the idea of identity, protective, cognition. I think I would much rather live in the world of so many of our anthropogenic climate change accepting peers, and we're you know, it's the world where if you could just educate people enough with better science literacy skills, these dead end public disputes over pretty solid. Empirical science could be resolved. What means you could essentially win an argument over these issues by presenting facts, presenting data, and that's how a lot of these, you know, like scienc- people want it to be like that. Right. Scienc- people want to say, well, I can I'll just bring more evidence the all show up with even more references next time, and that will get them. But I'm afraid the evidence seems to be coming in that it doesn't necessarily work that way. Maybe an you know, we shouldn't be all or nothing in the way, we talk about things different different types of appeals will work with different people. But on average that does not appear to be how people work. I will on that note. We're gonna take a break. And when we come back working expand on the concept a little bit and talk about what can possibly be done and talk about Scott Steiner, though. Yes. Hey, folks, these days, you can get practically everything on demand like our podcast, you listen when you want when it's convenient for you. So why are you still taking trips to the post office to mail letters and packages when you can get postage on demand with stamps dot com with stamps dot com. You can get access to all the amazing services of the post office right from your desk. Twenty four seven when it's convenient for you. You can buy in print official US postage for any letter any package using your own computer and printer and the mail carrier picks it up just click print mail, and you're done couldn't be easier. We used stamps dot com here and the the office when we need to send out the I bit of merchandise of correspondence. And we want you to try it out as well. I mean, it's just so handy to have all of that power. Just right there in your officer in your home, and right now, you can do so by using mind blown again that's mind blown for this special offer it only clued up to fifty five dollars in free postage digital scale into four week. Try. Trial. So don't wait go to stamps dot com before you do anything else. Click on the radio microphone at the top of the homepage in type in m I n d DB L O W in mind blown that stamps dot com. Inter mind blown and start mailing things. All right. We're back. So Joe where are you familiar with the Scott Steiner before I mentioned him to you? I was not tremendously familiar, but you sent me the best video I've seen all week. Yes. So this this was a video, and this is readily available online because it it it kind of went viral and became its own maim. But yeah, it's a video of professional wrestler. Scott Steiner AK big poppa pump. Oh, okay. Yeah. Well, I think I knew him better by that name. Yeah. That was. Yeah. That was a Monica he adopted at one point. And it's this is a clip from a wrestling promotion that was known in in two thousand eight TNA the promotions now called impact and Steiner launched into a backstage promo that intitial pro wrestling fashion is all Xiaodi laced in macho Pravada, but in a twist, it's also full of math and statistics. So he makes highly rigorous. Yes. Yes. And in this particular promo he makes the following claims. I'm just going to roll through these okay? In a normal human voice lay it on me. Okay. So he points out that normally wrestler has a fifty fifty chance of winning a match. Okay. All else being equal share. Okay. Yeah. But given his big poppa pump superior genetics his opponent Samoa. Joe only has a twenty five percent chance of winning. Oh, no. But it's a three way match as well. And it involves Kurt angle. So each participant. Here has a thirty three and a third percent chance of winning. But he but since Kurt angle, according to to Steiner knows that he cannot win. He won't try so Steiner presses the following point quote, so Samoa Joe you take your thirty three and one third chance minus my twenty five percent chance in you have an eight in one thousand chance of winning at sacrifice sacrifice being the name of the pro wrestling event. But when you take my seventy five percent. Chance of winning if we were to go one on one and then add sixty six and two thirds percents. I got one hundred and forty one and two thirds chance of winning at sacrifice see Samoa, Joe the numbers don't lie. And they spell disaster for you at sacrifice watch sacrifice were you there? I did not. I was not. I did watch some clips from it looks like it was, you know, pretty hard hitting match. Interestingly enough Samoa Joe one. Oh, man. However, Kurt angle was injured and had to be replaced by another wrestler. So one assumes that that would have changed the equation somewhat despite having a negative forty one percent chance of winning one. So this is as Steiner says the numbers don't lie or do. They is this admittedly, ridiculous example is this is the Scott Steiner falling prey to a lack of understanding regarding numeracy. Or is it motivated numeracy is he just so highly motivated by his. Dislike of Samoa Joe and his belief in his own superior genetics that he just so readily mishandles them that might be a better example of a mathematical incarnation of the dunning Kruger effect on the sure, but this is where you believe that you have more fluency in a particular area than you actually do. Yes. Be the who we sh we should get into one time the dunning Kruger effect because there's a no there is a more nuanced understanding of it than you usually see when it's deployed in the media and stuff, but the basic ideas that with the dunning Kruger effects. If you are not very good within a skill set or within a knowledge, domain, you also lack the meta cognitive capacities to understand what would make somebody good at it. Thus you failed to grasp your own shortcomings, and thus people who are very low skilled or very low knowledge in a certain domain, Tim to vastly overestimate their skills or their knowledge because they can't know they can't know what they don't know. No. All right. Well, I realized that this example was was maybe more entertaining than helpful still my only opportunity to really work Scott Steiner into an episode come on. We've been plowing through a psychology paper. We've got have a little wrestling the lighten the load. All right. Well, we'll now that we've lighten the load. Let's let's come back to the big remaining question. You've if motivated numeracy is the the key thing that's happening here. I if this is the enemy the threat than how do we deal with? Yeah. Like what what can be done? And so one thing I would take away from this research is that good science education and science communication are necessary. But not sufficient necessary, but not sufficient to produce a correctly informed. Citizenry? You can't have people making good judgments without understanding the facts, but the better they understand the facts the more they'll use their understanding to support their identity derived point of view, so Kahan and others proposed that the way to beat motivated reasoning is. Not necessarily to improve the reasoning but to remove the motivation to remove the motivation. Like that reminds me so much of Krishna's words to Arjuna in the Hindu epic the buck about Gita. Oh, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. If if I may add like to read, you know, having come from the quoting Scott Steiner, I obviously want to move on other high literature. Yes. So this these are the words of of Krishna that man alone is wise who keeps the mastery of himself if one ponders on objects of the sense there springs attraction from traction grows desire desire, flames two, fierce, passion. Passion breeds recklessness. Then the memory all betrayed. Let's noble, purpose, go and saps the mind till purpose mind, and man or all undone, but if one deals with objects of the sense, not loving and not hating making them serve his free soul. Oh, which rest serenely Lord. Low such a man comes to tranquility and out of that tranquillity show rise the end and healing of his earthly pains since the will governed sets the sole at peace. I'd say the will governed is much easier said than done, isn't it. Oh, yeah. I mean, that's why we've clearly we're still struggling with it. And you know, and I don't want, you know, obviously, this is this is the work of immense literary significance and Indy philosophy. But, but yeah, this idea of acting without passion seems to to line up a reasonably well with this idea of tackling various innumerable problems without bringing in this political motivation. Yeah, though, of course, I it seems very unfortunate that I think a lot of this motivation comes in unconsciously, right? Because I mean, we I guess we haven't really addressed this so far, but you have to assume the people are not generally, and you probably know from your own experience at least if it's like mine, they're not generally. Thinking like, okay. How should I trick myself right now to come to the wrong conclusion because it would be socially acceptable. It doesn't feel like that to think about political issues that are, you know, are empirical issues that are politically relevant. It just feels like well, I'm just trying to figure out what's right? But obviously, I must be doing this at least sometimes. Yeah. We're just kind of we're often just we're swimming through life. We're not necessarily thinking about the individual strokes. Yeah. You know, it all comes together. And we ended up making these mistakes, and cognition and to reemphasize what the authors of that original paper we're talking about. I mean, in a way this is rational, it's rational in a perver- sway. Not in a good way. That ultimately creates the most benefit, but any kind of short term perversity, it is rational like you will sometimes hear people talking about early minting in politics. How others just won't do. What's rational begin a certain interpretation of rational self interest? This irrational relationship with empirical questions makes perfect sense. The. Authors. Write quote, what any individual member of the public thinks about the reality of climate change the hazards of nuclear waste disposal. The efficacy of gun control is too inconsequential to influence the risk that that person or anyone he or she cares about faces, nevertheless, given what positions on these issues. Signify about a person's defining commitments forming a belief at odds with the one that predominates on it within important affinity groups of which such a person is a member could expose him or her to an array of highly unpleasant consequences, thus like, we know that it's radically consequential what in general public policy is about climate change or gun policy or something, you know, these are hugely important questions, but the impact of one individual person's opinion feel small enough that you basically the consequences of that or almost irrelevant. It's like what's really relevant is. How is this affecting me in my day to day? And now, it's primarily. Affecting you and your day to day is the social consequences of the beliefs you express, but obviously that's not what we want. We want. Everybody making rational decisions having correct empirical information to reason from of course, they're still going to argue about political values. But at least having everybody except the same set of correct facts when correct facts are on the table, right? I mean, a lot of it kind of comes down to the fact that we are a short sighted species that can barely see beyond her own horizon. But, but we are attempting to see beyond that arise, and we are trying to to to maintain a world or create a world that can be sustained in some fashion. We, you know, the the the old adage of courses making a thinking about your children and your grandchildren. Yeah. When when you're making decisions such as as, but historically, it's not the sort of thing that we're great at as species and. Yeah. And so it's clearly not enough just to tell people like, well, here's a problem with how. You're probably thinking, you're probably doing identity, protective, cognition, and you need to stop it. You know, that that's just obviously not going to war issues asking somebody to shut their mind their ears off like, oh, yeah. They're really going to listen to you now, buddy. Yeah. I mean, and then the probably not even doing it on purpose. Right. I mean, you and I are doing it. Sometimes we're not doing it on purpose. The people who do this. They're not doing it out of a a will to deceive themselves is just happening as part of what the brain does even unconsciously. So the question is could you do something external could you create a state of affairs? They would change the incentive structure do at the author said and somehow change the motivation. If you can't change the reasoning in motivated reasoning maybe you can change the motivation in motivated reasoning. So here's one thing. I'm thinking about most politically relevant numeracy is basically recreational right? Like you need to get the numbers. Right. When you're calculating your Bank balance. But if you get the numbers wrong when you're talking. About gun control or climate change. There's no immediately detectable consequence to you as long as you get them wrong in the way that your social group approves of and this is not true of every person in every context. For example. Why does scientists working within their own fields tend to usually to get the numbers? Right. Of course, not always. But usually like regardless of whatever their political opinions are if they're doing work within their field. They tend to get it. Right. Most of the time. Well, because they're going to be other scientists that are going to be attempting to to perform the same experiment to see if they get the same results there be people reading it. And if they see the air, they are going to they're going to correct them on it. I mean, that's part of the process. Yeah. There's a strong incentive to get the numbers right failed. Numeracy in your own published. Research is potentially a major blow to your credibility to your career to your standing among your professional peers and stuff. So I wonder if it's possible to change the incense. Structure for non scientists to somehow be more like that this might be just completely impossible fantasy. But is there a way you could make it? So the getting the factually correct answer is incentivized in in the social situations of lay people and arriving at conclusions in agreement with your social group is not especially incentivized the movie is that just a totally unrealistic hope can human nature change that much higher than it does some kind of daunting like you like what kind of structure system would enforce that. And then how does it how do you roll it out, successfully, I'm some I'm sure some tech billionaire has some kind of nightmarish idea for an app that would do that. But in fact, would just destroy everything. Yeah. They're all sorts of sort of black MIR Esca solutions that come to mind, but they all have like a black near s twist where you can see how it was screw things up or where people would essentially rebel against it and say like, you know, what I don't I don't really want Facebook or Twitter or what have you coming along. Long and calling me on things that I've said that were incorrect in the past may just white my account instead suffering that embarrassment. Yeah. Okay. Here's another idea. Maybe some way to fight the motivation, perhaps this social support networks and structures that are not dependent on ideological agreement. Like if people really strongly felt confident that their friendships and their work and family relationships were safe and would not suffer it all no degree of alienation or weakening of relationships from disagreement over political issues. Maybe that would remove the incentive does that make sense. If people felt that they could disagree with their social group and not not risk anything by doing that than there would no longer be a protective motivation in what beliefs you hold him. Basically, make are the social groups making the more making them more open to free discussion more accepting of disagreement. I guess I mean, the at least seems like a. Ability in and maybe the way maybe one way of dressing that is not that you can really change the nature of peoples family and friendship relationships like that all that much. But if you could have I don't know supplemental, social dynamics like this may be one thing that community style groups like church congregations and things like that are useful for in that they provide sort of like outside of the family and the small fringe group they provide like a backup social situation where you you can retreat if you are feeling down in your other relationships, though, not to say that not church congregations have ever made people feel alienated for disagreeing. Oh, yeah. I mean, I guess the thing, you know. I'm just saying like supplemental social safety nets. I guess right. Well, I could see where different group. I mean, different social groups can serve as the backup depending on what's happening in your life. I mean, I can imagine a scenario in which certainly a church could be the the the fall. Back but also scenarios in which work social group could be the fallback or just, you know, your your your home life. So your home social behavior family the follow it, you know. All my friends are mad at me. Because of what I said about at least nuclear way, at least, I'm doing okay work. I don't know like one of the ID. It seems one of the ideas that comes to mind here is like you'd almost wanna have. Just social groups that are. More adherent to scientific consensus. I hate to come back to to that. But because ultimately if if that is not present in in one of these social structures. I mean, it's there's going to be a high possibility that some other factor is going to be more pressing in the world view, and certainly one sees that in religious groups. I mean, not all religious groups. But there are certainly religious groups out there that have have beliefs that run very counter to scientific consensus down do they do so in a detrimental fashion. I mean, that's going to depend. Yeah. Again. I I mean as with all these questions like is there any way to actually engineer that or is that just impossible. Well, no, I think we have we need to create a new religion. That's what it comes down to you know. Yeah. The an open discussion science, I religion. They can just sweep across the sweep across the land from short ashore. And and and make a better world for the future. Well, I'll let you carry the crook of priests and profit on that one. But okay, here's maybe one more way. Another basically, I'm just offering different ways you could approach the motivation problem. I don't know of any specifics that you could create, but here's another way of approaching it. What if there is a way to shield facts from acquiring in the first place what cahan and co-authors call quote in Taganrog, cultural meanings. In other words, if you can't fix publican understanding, my making people better at science, comprehension, and you can't program people not to be incentivized first and foremost by a sense of partisan social belonging. Maybe the best way to protect facts is to find a way to never let them become politically charged in the first place. If there's a if somebody could figure out a way to do that, or at least lessen the probability that would happen that also seems like a very useful thing a good way to fight this problem. But it may also. Be impossible because there's again, political incentive for people to politicize certain issues. Yeah. The league con Kahane's definitely talked about this before I believe he touched on the idea of of not necessarily like outright preventing. But like a win. It is beginning to take place, and and finding ways to intervene and keep it from being so highly politicized because it's like, you know, barnacles building up on a ship or something, right? Yes. Like when you detect maybe have a process for when you detect that a an empirical scientific question is starting to become an issue of political significance. Suddenly what you want is to get all the politicians and political actors to stop talking about it immediately. And instead get politically neutral celebrities and spokespeople and stuff to talk about it. Yeah. I feel like it's a pretty good idea. I think it probably has thirty three and one third percent chance of success. But if you add that to the forty six and one half percent chance. Then you're really getting Stein Ariffin. Yeah. You might get up to two one forty one and two thirds chance of winning. You know, one of the things that that Han it all right in there paper thought was really interesting is that they point out that people even when experts in other fields are primarily as humans experts about quote, identifying who knows what about what that sort of is the main way our brains work, right? That's like our primary capacity is figuring out who knows about what things right. Yeah. I mean to come back to Sagan's point of view, you know, it's it should be certainly less about trying to figure out who's the thority in this looking at who is at best an expert in a given field and being able to sort of way what they're saying. And what they're saying. But oftentimes we use this capacity of looking at who knows what about what not to figure out who has the real who's got the best expertise to offer. But it's with the best expertise is saying what I want to hear said exactly, yes. Who is saying what I want to hear said or what my social group believes in the best way. So I can say the same way. Anyway, you geniuses out there who who can think of more specific and possibly effective ways to undercut the motivation part of motivated reasoning and I'm politically relevant empirical questions. Let us know what are those ideas, you have indeed this is one of those areas where this this hypothesis is so new or the guy I don't even think we probably have the science fiction to level at of you, the listener will be creating the science fiction of that might in some way, inform what we actually do about it. Yeah. Th this whole field identity, protective cognition in away is still developing. So more research could change what seems to be true about it today. But I know I it's one of those where I feel like I'm very interested in this research, but it's not necessarily encouraging. I I wanna go back to the science comprehension thesis world. I wanna live in the place where you can just where you can just tell people more share more knowledge with more enthusiasm modeled, correct? Kinds of critical thinking and all that and and bring people aboard. But it's just not that easy as right or it's just not enough. I mean, it kind of comes back though, again to the Gita and and other older works that taught about like self awareness because that's alternately. What we're talking about is new ways to become aware of how our brains are working in how in some cases, we our brains. Our minds are tricking ourselves into do clinging to beliefs that simply don't hold up. Yeah. Oh, in one of the things, of course, we've always got to mention we mentioned this in pretty much any time. We talk about bias or something you're sitting out there thinking right now. Yeah. This is what other people do. But it's big to we all look to examples in our own lives. Big ones small ones ones you. You can't recognize and don't even know you do. Yeah. Exactly got to remove that plank. All right. Well, on that note, we're going to go in close out this episode. Of as always head on over to stuff to blow your mind dot com. Because that is our mothership that is where you'll find all the podcast episodes. You'll find links out. There are various social media accounts. There's also a tab at the top of the page where you can go to our store and get all sorts of cool merchandise some of its show specific like the great bacilus score the Cambrian life shirt. There's other stuff is just has to do with their logo. But it's a great way to support our show if you wanna spend a few bucks and get something cool to stick on your laptop or your shirt on the other hand if you want to support the show without spending a dime just rate and review the show wherever you have the power to do. So thank you so much to a wonderful audio producers, Alex Williams Tari Harrison, if you would like to get in touch with us with feedback on this episode or any other with your ideas of how to take the motivation of motivated numeracy in motivated reasoning. If you want to let us know where you listen from how you found out about the show or suggested topic for the future. If I didn't already say that. 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Upton Sinclair Dan Kahan Carl Sagan Scott Steiner Tigers cancer California US Samoa Joe Robert I Ellen Peters Charles Dickens Joe McCormack Kurt angle Schillt
Japonizados Micropodcast | 226 | Death Note

Podcast RadioViajera

20:00 min | 11 months ago

Japonizados Micropodcast | 226 | Death Note

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NutriMedical Report Show Thursday Aug 15th 2019  Hour Three  Pastor Carl Gallups, http://www.carlgallups.com/, Kingdom of the GODS, Trilogy of Christian Truth Books, Important Ready, Avoid Apostasy, Naos Temple is US,

NutriMedical Report

53:50 min | 1 year ago

NutriMedical Report Show Thursday Aug 15th 2019 Hour Three Pastor Carl Gallups, http://www.carlgallups.com/, Kingdom of the GODS, Trilogy of Christian Truth Books, Important Ready, Avoid Apostasy, Naos Temple is US,

"It's the doctor bill. Deal show presented by neutral medical dot com call live eight one eight eight eight six four zero one and welcome back we have pastoral gallup's is amazing author and moviemaker passer colonel <hes> you've been busy we hope to have you on as we rescheduled every second thursday so now of course the end of the month <hes> your latest book i like to talk about it and he has as part of a trilogy talking about some of the issues raised a few things the last show. I'd like to expand upon go ahead well. Thank you dr bill to be on the show with you and i appreciate your kindness. I don't remember exactly where we left off. Let's i been limited as a couple of issues elected throw it because they come up with other people. I came client. The family survived the holocaust as the same issue. Did you didn't think that the jews most jews want to build a temple certainly not on the temple mount which was the temple of antonius. <hes> the second thing is we have right now. <hes> <hes> today israel's blocked ilhan omar talib who have criticize israel from going there which is good. I think <hes> we have dump trump the embassy from tel aviv to jerusalem <hes> and of course i heard that the eventual place that they're going to build the of the u._s. Embassies actually very close to the springs kahan which is where the ancient temple was it appears that the only people don't want all the templars evangelical christians and every small segment of the jews. Can you expand upon because i think a lot of people this is something that happens in the christian church now which is a pretty confused in many ways. They always wanna sign. They wanna have a sign of a temple. They wanna see certain convent's happen in order for them to tell them what's next but i you know i like to expand on that because i don't think that the people who are looking for a sign are going to get the kind of science because they're not looking in the right place are they. I i think you're right and you know i always leave room for me to be wrong in these matters but i can speak from contextual biblical standpoint and i can can say to your audience i i will soon have another book coming out that will address this as part of that book that so i'm saying that to save that they will be tons of references princes from renowned scholars that go back eighteen hundred years all through the last eight hundred years who see the same thing that i'm getting ready to talk about so i just want your listeners. No i'm not pulling this out of my back pocket. I you know doesn't make me right doesn't make me a hundred percent right but it does mean that. I know a little bit about what i'm talking about. Here's the pro here's the deal now i can talk from a biblical contextual scholarly standpoint and i will but first let me say this from from <hes> i witnessed firsthand inside of israel one of my dearest friends and ministry partners for the last six or seven years. His name is rabbi zev the porath peo- our dr a._t. <hes> he is a <hes> messianic rabbi. He's a born again. <hes> orthodox do <hes> who is <hes>. He's the founder of messiah of israel ministries messiah of israel ministries dot com. You can find him okay now. The reason i bring him up is because his father was a rabbi. His grandfather was rabbi rabbi. His great grandfather was a rabbi trace their lineage back. I don't know thousand years. The way back from israel was a nation to two of his grandparents. Were <hes> <hes> grandfathers. Were on the diane. The judges they were judges in the rabbinical courts of israel <hes> self went through the achieve of the most prestigious they just in israel preparing himself to be a san hebron rabbi. He graduated from u._c._f. And had there's the certificate or the degree if you will that that enabled him to do that in the midst of all of that is when he found a jesus christ as messiah lord and savior and he's got an amazing testimony only that's in my book the rabbi the secret message in the identity of messiah <hes> but anyway bottom line is he and i've had deep conversations about this matter of the temple. Now you gotta remember not only does he come from an orthodox jewish sampling born and raised in israel speaks hebrew as his first language his mother's side of the family deeply he connected to the israeli government and the israeli military his father's side of the family deeply connected to the whole orthodox movement in israel that goes back before israel was even a nation so this guy he's not one hundred percent correct on everything he says but but he knows what he's talking about. We guarding matters jewish matters israeli matters government matters military matters and in this discussion of the temple. Here's what he says. He says first of all carl carl the scriptures simply don't support a literal reconstruction of a literal temple in the last days not when you understand the original languages ages of the old testament and the new testament but he says but it's just as important and i was in israel with him not too long ago so i'm gonna tell you something firsthand. I experienced yes but he says that he has deep deep connection inside the israeli government who's also a high ranking israeli idea military member and and <hes> i. I don't know if he's relative. He hasn't told me the guy's name but a we've had lengthy conversations and he said this he says my contact tells me and swears that the temple institute that is there near the temple mount in downtown to rousselin. It's a museum and and by the way very few jews in israel. Zep says even know where it is none <noise> ever visit it. It is a tourist attraction <hes> for basically christians from other nations mainly from the united states also china's a huge attraction because they have a large christian population and some of the european countries the temple institute now the temple institute is billing itself and marketing itself as an organization this getting ready to build the third temple on the temple mount well christians all world go crazy easy over that they salivate over it and this inside contact told him that the temple mount institute has raised billions. That's be with the a billion with a b. billions with an l. dollars and could bill and temples on the temple mount right. Now this shows you i. I've changed the name just to be a little sarcastic about if i call the evangelical the evil jellyfish somehow they they wanna sign you see because because the works gospel being preached by a lot of the church wants to have a sign because a lot of the church believes good works wipes away sin just like coney dra was yom kippur in israel and good works talent. You have to have a relationship with god. God's relationship counts a lot more than a good works and people don't understand this so when and people looking for a sign a sign a sign they should understand that even in ancient israel when they were giving warnings warnings to repent who's warnings to restore relationship. It wasn't warnings brings to you know change and build a different building <hes> it was warnings to change the relationship with the creator. God wasn't it. He's a personally nationally well. Let me let me let me finish telling your audience. Do what ya i wanna finish telling your audience this connection <hes> because i think they will be shocked shocked by what they hear by the time i've completed so the bottom line is that that this contact is assured that the temple institute as a whole now. I'm sure there are some people in it and and i know some what you say that i'm slandering in labeling them by saying this but i'm telling you what zev has told me that his contact inside the israeli israeli government is set and i've got all this documented by the way from israeli government sources actually that say the same thing and i've got it in my book coming up very soon but but but what he told me was he's look they've got billions of dollars enough to built-in temple structures and they literally have no intention of ever building a temple mount. It's a money raising scheme for the state in the nation of israel and for the orthodox movement and it's kind of propped up by the government because he against the orthodox movement is deeply entrenched within the israeli government in the same way the roman catholic church which is slightly from now. Let me inserts us and i want to hear your comments. It's very likely that trump because he's deepening drenched was known the celtics but many evangelical christians believe a temple is going to be built and this particular temple monday student israeli government at temple. Even if it's not going to be fulfilled by scripture is very likely to be built anyway. Isn't it well. That was where i was going. I was going say that it wouldn't surprise me at all. If if the orthodox movement tries to do something in the way of an altar of sacrifice the temple on the temple mount etc because the very very very orthodox believe that they have to have something like that in order for their massage because they rejected jesus to to return but here's the problem now. I've got the statistics on this. I don't wanna bore your audience with it but i got it all documented but the truth of the matter is in zev showed showed me all of this in writing from israeli sources that the vast majority of jews around the world much less than israel are not only not orthodox walks are secular. I mean a huge abortion or or what we would call nominal. <hes> is my guest knowing. My relatives relatives friends jewish friends their secular. They're not even religious in any way the you know they may call himself a jew but to actually going to synagogue or or our study all the repairs or anything well. I was going to say that that's very similar to a lot of christians. In america you know seventy percent of america claims to be christian's when you poll the population elation but yet we know that not seventy percent of the of the population is born again. Spirit filled jesus loving church going christians. No what are well. They're a nominal christians in other words. They would say well. I'm not an a._t._s. Well what are you buddha buddhist hindu muslim christian that that's our family tradition and so they they they go to easter services they call it they go to christmas services and then they say well. I'm a christian well. A lot of jews are like that celebrate passover. They'll l. celebrates. You know young kapoor. They'll go to synagogue but that's about it now other than that they get on with life and then they they very quickly. Tell people know i'm ju. I'm ju. I'm not a christian. I'm not this. I'm not that i'm a jew. The vast majority of jews around the world are like that according to statistics so the so only the the the percentage of the population in israel that is deeply orthodox is twenty five percents or less of that twenty five percent only <music> a little more than half of them so now we're down to thirteen fourteen percent want a temple on the temple now now with with with twelve thirteen eighteen fourteen percent of the total population warning temple mount and the government has stated we are not going to bulldoze the moss for blow it up the temple and with seventy five to eighty percent of the jewish population in israel not caring about a simple one way or the other or vehemently opposed to it and the ones that are opposed will tell you because i was in the streets of jerusalem with zef just a few months twelve month and a half ago we interviewed people just walked up to jewish people in jerusalem. Let me just ask them and they said no. No no no. We don't want one. We don't want world war three. We we're plowing down. The mosque of omar is a guarantee of destruction and death of jews. It's missiles coming from me ron. I it's it's a it's a catastrophic time and the other thing is the place where they're likely to build a temple. Here's one built is actually the alternate tried to pull the last year they brought it in jerusalem and trying to get jerusalem to give him authorisation to sacrifice lamb but it didn't get it in time so sacrificed lamb outside neither did of wine and a grain offering and they did bring it in <hes> during the if you've of yom kippur <hes> but what happens is it's very likely if there is any kind tampa more likely to be near the springs and behind below the eastern gate which is already israeli territory and have total control of that area's not near the muslim ariel sharon mosque and if there is something there. I think that they're thinking that if they build this temple that they're going to restore the religious rights in israel including the blood sacrifice a young reporter report take away the sins of the people in the in the nation and the christians are expecting this temple to be a sign of the seventy or treaty. That'll be broken in the middle that actually precipitate the birth pangs in the coming marriage supper of lamb. I think the christians want signs rather than any <hes> as results. They're going to be very disappointed aren't they. Yes and you've addressed a couple of areas where i was headed. I was going to tell you and your audience that zev love was at that altar sacrifice on yom kippur last year. He was there present. He's a citizen of israel born and raised there speaks speaks hebrew directly connected to all the rabbis directly they know him and he knows them and have conversations with them regularly as as a citizen of that nation he couldn't find it was hidden away behind some trees outside of <hes>. I forgot the gate it was outside the city walls and it was oh on across a no on the other side of a hill behind some trees very small alter. They didn't sacrifice a lamb on it. They had killed a lamb somewhere. Else had an ice chest in a cooler brought the cooler up in the back of a truck they pulled <music> out had barbecue basically and there was about thirty or forty people there yet. They had cameras rolling. They were live streaming and trying to make people think that you know this was a huge huge big jewish thing and the jews of israel weren't even there. They didn't even know about it so find it. In fact there was an american who was in israel that knows self off who had spent two days looking for the location finally found it got it confirmed and call him on his cellphone to get directions to to how to get to his in his own city how to find this so-called alter wins. I've got there he. He went to the people that wrench are of it because they they all new in. It is what are you doing. This is a farce and they said well. You know we're just want people to know we're trying to do this trying to raise funds and so they raised funds already. I've heard about the temple mount association bring and the evangelical were going crazy and they were riding on the jews have built villepin author of isis again when nothing could be further from do you have difficulty taking supplements. Are you searching for a high quality. 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You can't get a more powerful allied to fight daily bugs and serious pathogens. Give your body what it needs. Alison med ed order. Dr bill de gaulle's neutrogena triple eight two one two eight eight seven one or neutral medical dot com. That's one aaa two two eight eight seven one or neutral medical dot com tom and listened to the mixture medical report on the genesis radio network with open lines every weekday moocher medical dot com bringing nutrition and medicine together dental voices waft us into the future and we have of <hes> the amazing curl gallup's carol. What is your website. If people get your books averse <hes> pastor carl gallup's you're on amazon. You're on many other replaces. The latest one is called the yeah. It's called god's at the final kingdom and yes. My website is just my name dot com carl gallup's dot com. I'm carl gallup's dot com and yeah. My books are sold <hes> especially. The last ford was defender publishing their their sold. Wherever books are sold i mean even secular stores you can go to barnes and noble and amazon and then mom and pop stores have excuse me and you can you can get them but anyway the latest one is god's final kingdom and and it just released another one that released earlier this same year so i've had to out this year is the rabbi the secret message and the identity of messiah and if go to my website they can and click on the banner they can see the book they can read inside the book they can see the table of contents. They can watch promo video. They can see the back cover front cover and read some endorsements excetera website parl gal dot com yeah by the way i want to spell out for people so it c a r l g l l u._p._s. Dot com curled keret dot com so please give us a preview that you wanna talk about specific issues of your your experience recently in israel. Please continue. Thanks and i just want to tell you folks if they'll go to carlisle dot com slash books. It'll take you right to the book page of these last four books and there's package deals they're in in bulk rates and we can sign allman shipping free and all that they just need to check that out okay so when i was in israel about <hes> i guess it's been about a month and a half ago. Oh now i was there for oh several weeks and zep rotten. I did a lot of ministry together. So we went up to the temple. Mount one day and we went to the temple institute we went into the offices there now zeph speaks hebrew as his first language but he has no hebrew accent when he speaks english because his father was so famous <hes> was over over some yeshivas some some schools jewish schools and some synagogues in the united states that zappa was also came with his father and raised in the united states and was put in in american schools so the english he learned he speaks with a very american accent so the two of us went in and spoke nothing in english and we started asking there were two to women there who were <hes> administrating the offices that day but <hes> we told them we didn't lie to them. We didn't try to trick them. We just spoke and then we let them make whatever connections they wanted but we just ask the question how much money how big of a check how much of a check would we need to write today to the temple institute and boy. There is got huge. I think they thought they saw a couple of billionaire. Americans you know and and they and i said how much money how much how much of a check what i need to write that to give gift the temple institute so that we could start construction on the temple now i mean it. Let's get it going. Let's bring out the stuff. Let's get it started. Let's start pulling all the political strings. How much money do you need to finish this and she's and she said oh. We don't know there's no amount. Just give what you can and i said mom. You don't understand and i'm asking asking us. How much money would somebody need to write a check for to get it done now. Not just not just fundraising i'm talking about. Let's get it done. Let's get it done well <hes>. How long are you going to be here so we'll be here for a couple of hours in this area will listen. Let me call the chief rabbi. I want to get an answer bush. She was so happy she just knew she was going to be a hero in and get a check for millions of dollars right there so in about forty five minutes we went back and she came bouncing up to us and how the other woman wither we talked to the chief. Rabbi and i said okay how much money she said he said to give all that you can give and i said well. That's not an answer. I said look. I build buildings and by the way i do. I've built quite a few in my ministry time. Sanctuaries and education buildings etc and i said the buildings and i know how that works. You have an estimate of what you need and even if there's an over run you still can get very close. I need to know a figure and she said well. The rabbi said but there was really no figure just to give the very most that you could give 'em. I said well. That's not any way to raise funds. I can't believe that's how you raise funds funds and i said so. What if i wrote you a huge check and she suggests that would be good. That would be good. I said well let me finish. I said what if i wrote you a huge check and and then and then you know what are you going to do with it well. We'll just as soon as we can. Start the temple we will and i said well well. What's holding holding you back. I said if it's money as let me let me talk to you about how much you need. She said well. You know there's it's. There's some politics two. Oh well what why didn't you say that i said so so if i give you a huge check and the politics <hes> stand in the way what do we need to do then she said without even taking a breath. She said we need to raise more money. I said well if we raise even more money than everything. We could give what what would that do. She said maybe it would change the politics. If we show them how much money we have and i didn't what would you do. She said well we would need for you to give us more money. She literally they literally said that dr bill and we're that's bizarre bizarre moneymaking scheme. I'm telling you now this does not count the fact that there are genuine legitimate orthodox jews who pray fervently who wanted temple their heart's heart's desire is to see a temple temple mouth but i'm telling you it's a miniscule amount of the population. It's a teenager amounts of that then the entire jewish population religion in the world and it's only the deep deep miniscule tiny part of the orthodox movement. That's even talking about it but what they have learn. They have learned that evangelical christians around the world want a temple on the temple mount more than the jews want it so they've learned that that is a way to rake in billions of dollars of funds and they're doing it and and every now and then you'll see it appear in the headlines of some you know <hes> some some online internet <hes> publication some out of israel some from around the united states you know the jews are getting ready to build the temple mount and funds uh-huh pour in from the united states when actually that's not what's getting ready to happen now. I'm just telling the truth. I know some of your audience might not like it but i'm just on telling you from me. Being there talking to the people from zev living they're connected to the government connected to the military connected to the orthodox movement deeply deeply <hes> speaking hebrew as his first language listening to the rabbis teach about this thing the vast majority of the jewish rabbis do not want temple on the temple mount. It is a money making thing so what i say to the evangelical church in america quit reading the novels and watching the movies that have dramatize talk. Is this thing that probably is not going to be a part of the last day scenario. Probably i could be wrong but based upon all that. I just said plus plus deep biblical connections that i could make i mean i can take the scriptures that they use. There's only three scriptures in the new testament that people used to quote prove. There's going to be the temple and the main one comes out of second thesselonians chapter two. I can promise you that does not speak of temple on the temple. Now it does not in no way contextual but that's what it means anyway big can of worms here on this in studio in the show which is good. I have another can of worms for you. <hes> i have a good friend. <hes> who i've actually brought books back from america back in one thousand nine hundred nine to israel it was actually a book that was published in printed in america by avi lipkin who's goes by the writers name <hes> victor mordechai personally. I was just with him in israel right right i yeah i and i have had a good friend of mine actually but he differs with me and a couple things because i like to raise questions that make people kind of squirm. I mean i i'd like to say i have more questions than answers. I'm like a three year old. Never wants to become for two year. Olds learn to speak in sentences three year. Olds ask questions and make got all squirm and four year olds eventually shut up. I have no intentions of ever becoming four so i raise the question when i had him on a few months ago. Has this book is called christian revival for israel's survival. I brought boxes back to his wife and nurse jerusalem back in nineteen ninety nine. That's twenty years ago and i asked because we've had him on the show on and off for for over twenty years right and i asked him i said now you've gone to a lot of ministries christchurch's. How if you're not deceptive asya you show meshiah because he ministering to christians to try to convince christians should support israel but he doesn't personally except messiah messiah now. There's a lot of jews that are very intelligent. He's an intelligent man and i asked this question. He got really you know basically upset in fact up to the point where you said you know you upset me by asking asking these kinds of questions last time was said it should upset you because it upsets me that a fellow israelite hebrew and cohenim blood haven't accepted messiah now the messianic jews. I remember the messianic association misery. I met back in nineteen ninety nine days off circle in tel aviv. I know these people personally salie and these are jews came from everywhere from russia from all over the world and they actually converted when it converted by the way if you're a neurosurgeon from russia and you convert to to become come messy a lotta time you lose benefits in fact you may not even be able to get a job sweeping outside in front of a cafe israel persecute those who become messianic after they were quote quote <hes> if you wanna call it <hes> jews beforehand and even were secular jews but you jews by title by by stamp and <hes> <hes>. I want the raise issue. 'cause i want juice realize your nation physically emotionally spiritually will not survive unless you repent. It's not just a matter of personal survival of jews to become immune system book of psalms that they shall see one they appear so i think it even comes up with a number of the gods clever enough. The one third of jews will repent and see the one they pierced. I e issue and i agreed with me that that my fellow human beings especially fellow jews. It'd be part of my own blood. My grandfather spoke yiddish are not repenting and accepting messiah because the end of the ages coming. I mean right now. How many missiles do you think are aimed in syria by hezbollah from iran and and neither not just non targetable like scud head missiles but really it's accurate we can hit with a matter of cubic yards. How many missiles do you think are aimed at the guts of israel right now. I don't have a clue. I imagine there's a bunch a quarter million regular missiles at least two hundred twenty five thousand highly targetable missiles that can take on a building or go through a window israel is doomed okay and they're now trying to take a policy of going and trying to get these missile silos put there by iran and hezbollah and the iranians believe when their twelfth mama's they call it believe it or not what they believe in the twelfth imam shows up. They have to bring a boat a nuclear war in order for islamic vacation of the world happen. Now lots of muslims don't believe this but the muslims supported by the mullah's <unk> honey in iran which means that they can attack israel and try to destroy it and start world war three. They candice lama fi the world. They're not like russia's have some commonsense evenson drinking vodka that don't want to die or have relatives and older but bush cas di the muslims want a great big war to islamic by the world and they don't even care if most of their citizens is when this stupid thing how crazy is is so this is the end of the road and the russians unfortunately tied people don't realize how much of the russian army are muslim forty two percents increasing rapidly and most of them come from non russian countries like to jamaica stan azerbaijan etc and you know who they look up to their religious leaders. It's the mullah's and ronnie onny previously. I talk many by the way we the british and the put ayatollah in there after the photo of the shah and shot was put in there after like the like like <hes> <hes> the original guy that was in there trying to get the british to put a chemical plant in there. You know people don't understand what's going on here. We've we've actually loaded the gun and somebody's got the safety off yeah well and that goes. I mean you're right and that goes to the discussion. We were having about the temple so many christians christians are looking for a temple to be built and the third temple fervor and fever and you know and they base a lot of it upon the the popular teachings of novels goals and movies and <hes> the in times and in verse you know and schisms 'isms of eschaton charts and graphs and the maps in the meantime the word of god is very very clear in in especially that passage and second thesselonians which we can get to if you want but also just coming. I'm just telling folks what the jews in israel or the independent party's going to build a temple. It'll be the jews in israel. It won't be christians in the bible belt of america money but i'll tell you what my guess is. I'd say i put what about a ninety plus percent chance a temple will not build on the mosque of omar near the springs behind by evangelical funding and a small segment of jews and want to have a temple apple and then we're looking for a sign. The signs not going to happen. They're not going to advance will well and it also is not going to turn jews to begin except sciascia see accepting messiah doesn't mean stern a blood sacrifice in fact <hes> i have an interesting term i wanna run by <hes> firstly the rabbinic society that has the temple mount was set up and tony sixteen in fact the entire rabbinic council was completed the same year as trump was elected and they're they're setting up a peace treaty and when they do this the setting up of the abomination a desolate is basically saying piece where we're going to have a blood sacrifice sacrifice vice. It'll substitute for the blood of your shoe. That's an abomination. That's desolate. Israel israel doesn't realize it's actually tempting its own destruction doesn't it and like to address that in a couple of on the bank's analysis go back to that. Are you still looking for that. One on iodine that you can really trust a medical doctor endorsed product that is backed by honest research and true integrity of science then search no further go to new for medical dot com for dr bill eagles triumph proven time and time again to be the very best iodine available for you is the only tesla activated debated monitoring plasma in the world it optimizes mida conjul function and generation of new might qendra from totally neutralizing the venom from the desperate asu precludes spider bite in southern california to eliminating malaria parasites reported by medical missionaries in central india doctor bills you try adine is simply. 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I'm sure is no scar taking a two to three capsules twice a day with uncle mike tyson michael due to <hes> provides an amazing support for regeneration any tissue organ on the body and even advance stem cell therapy support treatment do get neutral medicals red velvet d._r. From dr building dramatical calm <hes> medical dot com triple agent to unto us one. Stay well and stay with me for medical hi hi. I'm dr bill daego m._d. A. m. a. c. A. m a forum of neutral medical dot com and a consultant providing advice free an advanced protocols for your optimize the mayes wellness and advanced technologies dealer regenerate. You can contact us at neutral medical dot com. That's tier. I medical dot com or eight to one to eight hundred seventy one get free email starter protocols of our top medical-grade nutraceutical initial testing and recommendations for your own primary doctor to do as well as recommendations to give you an idea of a consultation and a full protocols and try to help you regenerate tissues heal naturally without the use of toxic poly pharmacy. I can send tests gets to you as well anywhere in the world and provide you recommendations referral of specialty clinics worldwide so contact me dr bill bagel at neutral medical dot com. That's a medical dot com or eight eight eight two onto eight hundred seventy one and injure medical dot com. He held the most amazing drinks with best both feel highest quality by nutrient <hes> exposure to your body to heal and regenerate and the most powerful persistence nutrients nutrient to heal your body dramatically. We have ageless which makes you h last which repairs your d._n._a. Exchange telomeres etc. We have life support. The detox talks is face to detox pathways salvation and methylation pathway support. We've added glycemic blocks of carbohydrate absorption health diabetes for weight loss and as well with people they're trying to build a bustle using our special. Formulas darker wolf called mega muscles between meals along with sports energy light. We have the amazing neutral complete the most complete read and re green streak in the world the best most feel and flavor could offer mix it to with but a mineral mix which is our fruit flavored mixed power vitamin stay well with neutra medical every day <music> and welcome back. We have pastor carl gallup's or it'd be back in two weeks past curl. You've got some amazing wisdom. I need to have your personal more of your travels in your connections nations in israel because this needs to be spoken to the none of the christians but also jews and christians in israel and people around the world because i believe that the if you wanna call it the detonator you almost it's like the pin for the eventual destruction of the world is actually the you wanna call in a grenade of israel. How's that yeah yeah. Well yeah and and i really want. It shouldn't take me much longer at all but i really want to kind of put a bow on what i was saying about the temple because i certainly don't want to be misquoted. I know you won't and i know your audience won't do it on purpose but somebody made listen to this later and if i didn't finish them they're going to say i. I can't believe he said this but here's the point so if if the jews as a whole and i'm i'm speaking eighty percent of the the jews in israel either do not want a temple on the temple mount or they don't think about it one way or the other and the ones that don't want it or vehement because they don't wanna a war. They don't want to world war. They tried to move the muslim omar because right now. Even all in the last few weeks was apparently has ceremony last week where there was a big the conflict over this <hes> muslim ceremony in a cosmic conflict on temple mount with police and so on even the idea of going up there for example areas or wanna went back pretty years ago villas twenty years ago round was number of shielded people just walking around the temple mount near. I think a muslim holy day in a concert catastrophe and he was at the time. I'm the prime minister of israel. This is a big deal isn't it yes yes and and that's what i'm that's. What i'm saying. Here is to your audience. I i wanna make sure sure they hear this that that <hes> that that there's a very small teeny minority and this is not just me making can this up this comes straight out of israel straight out of the government straight out of the rabbinic movement straight out of the mouth of a man born and raised there who's connected to all of those things and who who really wants to know the truth of it and and has come to the truth and that is there's really there are there is no intention of of any formal powerful movement of the government or the jewish people to build a temple on the temple mount and here's the thing <hes> brother bill is that it is this whole the thing is fueled and financed by evangelical christians around the world largely from america and it is a huge money making thing and okay and and i say to these christians say look number one if even if you know you think that a temple is going to be built on the temple apple mouth in the last days and your funding it you also believe according to that same belief that believes in a third literal temple. That's got to be built. That's the temple of the anti christ so you are funding the temple of the anti christ instead of funding missions and outreach and an evangelist exactly in other words symbol the goes in and actually declares his the ghana verse now very quickly. Let me talk talk about second. Festival is chapter two where he will set himself up in the temple of god proclaiming himself to be got. Here's the problem with saying oh well. That's the typical that's is your proof. No that's what you read in english but the problem is and i do a deep study of this and zeph herat who speaks hebrew has backed all of this up but the bottom autumn line is in the greek there are two words used that are translated into english as temple one of them is he run h. e. I r. o. n. The other one is not owes n. a. o. s. he runs speaks of the actual temple building with the courts and the inner temple and the inner sanctuary <hes> the temple that was on the temple mount the right the not oh speaks of the inner place or the holy place of the temple or the greek dictionary say or used metaphorically to speak of the church itself or the inner sanctum where the holy spirit resides in a person's <hes> <hes> so so so let me finish this this is important so paul who wrote almost half of the new testament document and he uses the word he iran which is literal temple one time one time in the scriptures when he talks about those who serve in the temple <hes> are are you know offer the sacrifices in the temple and he talks about that and he uses that word twice in one sentence and he uses the where in iran every other time he uses the word not host and he never speaks of a literal temple again but rather what he says is. Do you not know that you are the not host of god. Do you not know that god is building a new of jew and gentile but to one one the one new man <hes> with him as the head of the church that the that the holy spirit of god lives in the not host the holy place. You are the temple that the church is and so get the second thesselonians to he says now he says in the last days the people in the not let me give you an insertion of fact is okay. God let me have a supernatural official visitation october ten ninety nine three nine months later. I went to work tariffs above top secret clearance retriever for space which is the primary node for the matrix tricks or the movie like the mark of the beast twenty forty two years ago. I was at work at u._c._l._a. On the world misses you brain bank and electron microscopy lab because my first wife his dying of m._s. and darpa insisted they wanted to work with me because they're going to do genetic engineering altered female fetuses to create brady female super soldiers that were twelve times stronger than normal humans with genetically engineered and a magnetized non liquid nitrogen cooled helmet to convert thoughts on more community wanted to hack into their cortex and the alphabet of the cortex so they can create cyborgs the five g. network unfortunately that donald trump is pushing andy electronic attic messaging that ilan with chip is talking about the death of the soul is the final stage of the market vis system. If you want to call it is hacking into the human cortex. He can literally laugh children. Get a video game say two or five years from now where they can literally enter cyberspace. Whether you don't have to have is rare that can actually enter cyberspace space directly interface. This i believe is a final where the not always is being invaded so in other words the final airs you literally lay your soul what your consciousness and your intentions of your heart to the dark side and that's where i think of being us being the temple because you see god wants to prepare us to be the bride of god. It's our destiny for the human race to become married and become the everlasting br bride of the heavens not heaven of heavens so the human race actually get sanctified in the identify covenant gets reestablished so god learning in a sense we assure mary's the human race so we become the bride of god and what i see happening thing is the opposite's going on. We see evil taking over. We see social media we she you know operation crimson mess where they're using technology to try to hack in the cortex and because i had classified despite access to information. They're doing this stuff including the u._s. Military and tech companies like google and facebook and milan moscow and others they wanna hack into in tears intentions of your heart. They don't want to buy and sell through amazon. They don't wanna wanna know. You think you're not in china. They factories where they have helmets where you can actually tell if someone's stressed or what they're thinking and they'll pull them off production lines today and have the last four years in china by wearing a thought control helmet. Did you know they already have that now in china yep yeah i'm listening to you. Go ahead so what i'm saying is. I believe that what you're saying is not less is really important. Principle the temple simple and that's why i like the temple in the desert you know and temple had the sea cow skins which are white on the outside and reading the side. It was actually an archetype of the human body because original temple desert. You know that moses carried around. They haven't higher place around. All of the twelve tribes was an archetype of human body with harse being the heart and the holy police being the brain. I believe it's an archetype of god's saying i'm gonna make you my temple which he did when he did the blood sacrifice died across he learned he made a covenant to make us his this temple didn't he. Yes he did and the point. I'm trying to make here before we go off the air because i cannot be misquoted on this doctrine. I'm <music>. I'm gonna be in trouble so i finished making my way to finish up eventually brothers your show. I just wanna make sure elaborate right because this is important to go ahead. Yeah we got into a deep area and i just want to make sure that i'm i'm understood. <hes> the bottom line is and and we don't have enough time now for me to do what i wanted to do but the bottom line is <hes> that the the scriptures jesus warns assist paul who wrote almost half the new testament documents he warns us peter warns john warns us the book of revelation warns us the seven letters to the seven churches worn warn us that in the very last days there is going to be a demonic satanic incursion into the not the church into people's hearts into the institutional outward church and even into the heart. Even the very elax could lead to see if that were possible end unconscious of their heart is what you're saying. Yes it will be so demonic. The spirit clearly says in the last last days there will be doctrines of demons and the bible does so clear jesus told parable after parable about the the yeast working its way through the doe in the last last days about the pair's being planted by the enemy among the wheat about the final harvest. That's coming in about the apostasy and the great falling away and so paul uses that word not on purpose when he says an in the knowledge of god in the last days not the heat iran manatt owes he says there is where this this antichrist's spirit and this antichrist's. That's gonna rule the world for a little while. There is where he's going to set himself up and say i am god and you better worship me or i will kill you and and the point is christians. Today's world are missing. What's really happening happening in the world because they bought into novels and movies as their theology rather than what the word of god says and i. I just let me finish brother. I go to israel. I talked to the people the temple mount. I talked to jews that live there. I talked to people that are connected to the government and to the to the deep orthodox movement and they're not going to build a temple brother and nobody wants it except very very few and the evangelical christians around the world are pouring money in there by the billion trying to build a temple the anti christ if they do build something. It'll be a distraction. The real issue is the real thing. Ask things like the big tech companies like google facebook or all tentacles of the beast trying to not only hack into your mind and was five network of some of the newer technology that are coming in fact <hes> i have customers supercomputers fast enough that you can actually get ahead full band rate now an extra control computer by thoughts you know that and and <hes> they build that ship last year. It's a as chip fast enough to take to control it. They want to have it bidirectional and once they do that which the cellphone companies had talked about the next generation of cell phones. You won't even have to have years. You'll have direct quarter cle interface with fought with sight and hearing that is scary and that's where i think the not always actually the taking over of the consciousness of the population and people just like when they love their cell phone is this to be sarcastic. It future cell phones. All you have to make mandatory velcro la yet to have a cell phone with this new technology attached by velcro to somebody like your shoulder. Your right hip <hes> but you're right. Not house is us. We're the nautilus then if we don't stay discern it correctly we're going to i welcome. The anti christ in this global supercomputer system is all seeing like amazon and n._s._a. In the virtual world project object which they put together for all project mega that was channel by the tuli society changed society of germany's former c._i._a. And the five is is it actually created the spies against trump people know the system is nascent louis moving quickly toward this vigil and where they can actually enter and control an and insert ideas into your consciousness. That's where we're going. Isn't it the way that's where technology is headed and of course even before that we have have the churches inserting a pie apathetic ideas that are basically anathema to the gospel right. Yeah that's right so i think you've clarified yourself. I think he's basically saying is not less people. It's not the first term use for the building. The term mm-hmm was he iran but the point i'm trying to make is that the only word that paul uses <hes> is i. I lost my place wipro. You made your point amazing discussion today. I'm so impressed with what you've said. We'll see again in two weeks time. I get ah go to curl gallup's dot com get his books. Get informed start some serious prayer get a pair of group together in your home and start realizing that we are the nautilus we are the temples of god and we have to protect that temple from false ideas trump abnormal eschaton and do not support our bill they temple in israel. It'll be a distraction and prevention of juice repenting to turn back to shula and christians who think they need to sign sign sign of god inside them today today. He starts today the moment thank you pastor gallup's amazing discussion most.

temple israel temple mount temple institute america united states omar talib carl gallup amazon iran temple desert temple mount institute jerusalem china springs kahan donald trump zev
Crime In Music 63: I'm Kodak Black and Membitta...Timmbuba...Reewitto...Sunnaaa...!

Rock N Roll Archaeology

1:26:05 hr | 2 weeks ago

Crime In Music 63: I'm Kodak Black and Membitta...Timmbuba...Reewitto...Sunnaaa...!

"For seventy years. The world's top recording studios and concert stages have relied. On ak g microphones to craft. Today's biggest hits a cagey. Lyra brings legendary cousteau engineering to versatile. Usb microphone that delivers in highest quality audio today everyone is adjusted to higher resolution television. The same must be done with audio the k. g. lyra microphone is a big step in that direction. Whether you're recording a podcast interview your next spotify single or just wanna be heard clearly on your next. Virtual meeting liars innovative aka g capsule array adapts to your performance to record pristine audio with a k. g. Lyra you'll be up and running in no time. No matter your experience level it just works right out of the box create and capture your music podcasts and videos with class leading audio quality by legendary ak acoustic engineering from the comfort of your home. Hello and welcome to music. I'm your host. Brian jenkins lee. And with me it's always my friend. Been rubio that was a pretty good crack. The beer there. Brian has a lot. Mike picked it up. Oh isn't that great. Another things great. As every other week we bring you a great new true crime. Podcast about people in and around the music industry and their misadventures into lawbreaking. You like music history murder mystery. People with eccentricity you've come to the rate spot cher with your friends tell relative right now. Ben wants us to go to maryland. Get the good people of the panhandle state. well you know that big powerball just got one by somebody maryland. I'm hoping you're listening you know. We're we're looking for some sponsor and go to our patriot insight patriots slash crime music if you happen to be in maryland and sitting on a little excess cash a few million rolling around in your trunk your car her something. Well if you know someone there or honestly anywhere son your favourite episode. Tell him to give us a try. We're just trying to spread the word of music history and true crime and so if you like that sort of thing help assault be great. Also if you wanna talk to us. We are on all the social media is crime in music or go to our website. Crime music dot com and leave a speak pipe. That's where you can leave a voice message. You don't have to leave your name. Email nothing you can be like great. I listen to you and pika. Kansas or you can be like yeah sucking sound like you got a phallic things in your mouth when you talk see. Brian likes like high praise. I liked what. I like. Any communication we get from the listeners. It as long as i know people are listening in at all. I wanna know. What was that one girl's name and her and hey he was aggressive. I think good i think. Got a shot all right so and if you're listening lettuce would us now. At any social media or feedback act crime. Music dot com is our email. You can check us out there. And i don't remember everybody's name. I remember ends name. That's true you did. She left an impression superman. I talked to superfan michelle for have second about that. She is hilarious. Oh yeah no she bringing people together superman ship your famous shells or man michelle superman michelle all right. Well we we. You know not making a living talking but we should maybe try to do a better okay. Give him superman fish l. We'll do that. Okay all right so today. We're gonna talk about a couple of things in this episode. We're going to talk about well. Go into your court dates thread that we've had to cover an almost every beam up crazy people from florida. Have you ever knack onto a court date. I mean it's not like you. And i are going to know the high on my priority list when i got one. Yeah the time to tap into their early. that's their. that's one of those ones. Where like ten minutes early is on time. If you're on time you're late to show up the court man. I do not mess with that. Oh yeah yeah and dress nice. Oh yeah i get three p. man wingtips got to and what was the second thing. We're talking about florida florida crazy people florida all right. I like that well. I mean that's always it's low hanging fruit but it always tastes soga pictures pictures. Okay pictures all right. Good all right. Well these are. These are hints. These are just. I mean things are going to talk about. Prelude teasers letting people know what they're going to learn about your lorna courtrooms. Okay pictures our pictures. There you go and with that. We're going to jump into guest. The guest i do this. Everybody knows my. I know i i like. It is the only thing that brian does to actually get. This yet is a good no it. It itches the same little part of my soul as instant lottery ticket. Oh yeah i know. Probably gonna lose. But it's gotta fun when you win the adrenaline zehr. Few is and if it's just you know when your money back are all right. What are we. Don't really stand much of a chance. So you know okay. I mean Black all right Acdc no Opposite spectrum jay black jeep black now little black. I'm getting maybe a a rap. A rapper ding ding little black and jay black florida. No court date Little kodak that. I've heard that all i know. He's a soundcloud rapper. Okay the project baby. Now bill k. capri not his actual name. Okay no i. E you've already told me i don't know he is but little kodak was something we're getting there aren't bill kahan bronco bill white well the opposite of black. Hey dusen active. What are these his. Name's all his dave's long i do. That's what i kept going back. Jay black little black little kodak project baby. Bill cake capri bill. Kahan blanco dusen active. I think it's dyson active myself. But whatever he's soundcloud. Rapper got any idea who is now. I don't know we have seven seconds. I don't think you're gonna tell me that's right. It's kodak black okay. i've heard kodak boomeranged. I knew that. I don't know that's ok. Okay kodak black is a soundcloud. Robbery was born on june eleventh. Nineteen ninety seven ninety seven okay in palm beach florida. Hey just not derailed quite yet. One of my favorite rappers slash someone. We've done an episode on little wayne. I don't know what he did or what he was in trouble for. Okay what are you just got pardoned by outgoing president. Oddly enough did you. This will come up then does come up does come up in the show. Check with us after the break and we'll get there. I didn't know there tight. Apparently there are former mayor of detroit orally kwami got cuomo party out. Oh my god qualms free seven years in twenty eight years. I think something lockups your city funds. Everybody all right years. We're still looking for a stream strawberry. So i don't know where she went out. You'll never see her again. Especially now you're afraid of freakish. Ignite man strawberries on the run from kwami. That's for sure. She's think she's running anywhere anything. He's just disappeared. Oh she might. She might be part of. The foundation is definitely part of the foundation. He's over down to somewhere under manooghian mansion. All right terrible a podcast for one st place. Okay june eleven. Nineteen ninety. Seven born dyson active. Pompeii beach florida dussen. It's d. i. E. u. s. o. n. And then his last name is active. Okay that's real name. i can pronounce. Yes i guess israel and that's a neat name other name you should keep your rapper or music person octave is good. Yeah it's an think. Fits pompeo beach florida to his parents Literally just says his dad and then marceline active his mom okay so he was born to his parents. That's yup that's the fact of that card move on. His parents are immigrants from haiti and his mom and dad separated We're gonna call them cody. So that cody was raised solely by his mom marceline in public housing down in golden acres. Down in florida correct okay. His father was not around. Support the family financially. So cody starts rapping an elementary school. Isn't got that father figure. So he's hanging out at local trap houses after school to records music now not trap houses. I always been a few different definitions but basically absolutely yeah just trap. It's a drug house shelter drug users and the provides a place to deal drugs making the house a trap house where their term trap refers to the place to deal drugs and trap. Meaning you once you get in. You can't get out. Yeah you're in the game as so to speak. The cycle keeps coming around in your face. He spends his youth reading the sources and dictionaries to further his vocabulary. We we did to laura leonard in third grade. Learn how to speak. And i say mr ford sure. He was teaching third grade. You have some. I think we've mentioned this before. He died is he. Yeah i learned that at dick's funeral or oh clair's not clear. susan okay. So he would our punishment of you're screwing around you would have to basically start copying the dictionary that's correct. Just open up to a page copy. That was a big dictionaries. Thi lanh he would he would. Your punishment was tells us something little. Just copy one page of the dictionary which is on a writing a lot of words. And if you were like jerry you had copied twenty pages of the jeff always screwing pete in the radiator walk. I remember that yeah. It smelled like maple syrup. Don't turn that on. That's what i put my coat on after lunch when we're outside playing in snow to dry it out your gloves. Little fan fall he to me when i saw him as adults for being a bully jeff he was. Would you label him as a bully or just a. Why didn't know that he's just dick that he was a screw around. Screw up using a mean smart ass kid in the back of the class who is always like doing mean pranks and tricks and making fun of people. Didn't care who nobody liked them. Well that's probably was mean. I sorry jeff jeff. Sorry buddy adolescence. you know. i don't know i. I don't think i was a bully. But then there were some people that were probably bullied more than the rest of us. Oh i was really. And i wonder if they thought i was being bullied if they did. I'm sorry about it. i was just. I don't know what it was. i wasn't purposely. Doing i was a kid. No apparently i was a bully on the bus to katy little brother. Oh yeah. I was bullied. The boss actually confronted me as working a retail job as an adult and he was like. Oh you're a bully. The bus like oh god. I'm so sorry he's like no. It's cool. it made me this. The other i was like what would just go home. And take it out on my little brother like. Oh no so. The reality is related. Yeah realities of what you do. As a child people does come around as adults doesn't kill. You makes you stronger right. But no i've heard that staying so wouldn't kill. You may struggle. Foil didn't kill me. But i'm definitely not drugger down one foot. Well we need new podcast about bullying crime bullying all right. So this guy was a bully. He's apparently bullying cody gets in. He fights and gets them brawls goes breaking and entering with his friends he gets expelled from school in the fifth grade for fighting. He's arrested for auto theft while in middle school. Oh wow so. He's like in sixth seventh eighth grade. Gentlemen's dealing cards like to twelve. Doing caboose and cars cool. I play that video game. That's terrible the sofa. Because because if i heard about this real f. it'd be like oh that's sad but if there's a video game like get them kid yes window though about his upbringing. He said he was given to and he says quote sell drugs with a gun on his hip or rap. Well or you can do. Both i think again and i pretty sure he's gonna show that we do. Cody turns to robbing as a means of providing support because again his dad gob. So it's just him and his mom bobbing like rallying people in stores. Okay now back. Then about the ages six. He started using the nickname black in the us. A username little black. So he's a started already early with the nicknames. Two thousand nine. At the age of twelve cody. Johnson rap group called brutal youngins with little young and with z z z. Yeah he's using the stage name. Jay black that point gap then. He joins another local rap. Group called the chi lawns. Did jack black ever have a problem with that. You think. I don't know it never comes up but i bet she ticket he's like that's not me. That's this twelve year old kid in florida. I think jack black. Jack we should get together and do something. Coghlan's ko l. y. o. n. s. Colin's what is the second rap group the colons on like the name of a street or something. Oh bet your good call. December two thousand thirteen cody releases. Its first mix tape called project. Baby is one of the hints. I gave you and so because you know. He's well he tells you why anyway. December two thousand fourteen He releases the mix tape heart of projects. Well this is two thousand fourteen. Yes so they're probably mixed cds whatever they call them mix tapes. Okay that's the term the term right you get a new mix tape from drake her. Whatever so october. Fifteenth speaking of drake canadian rapper. He posted video of himself. Dancing to one and cody songs skirt. Which helped him get gained popularity despite objections from other rappers such as like earl sweatshirt essay month kids signs a deal with atlanta record so basically drake picked up one of his mix tapes. He's like oh. I like this jam and so he did like a little instagram video together. A contract yup. Do you get a contract. But he takes heat from other. Apparently just the rapper named earl sweatshirt. Who i've never heard of great name though earls sweatshirt. That's why we kept it in there. He's named after an inanimate object so the does not even twenty years old yet. That's correct ninety seven to two thousand fifteen getting close. What are we at eighteen years old. Yeah okay that's about right. All that's real good. Yeah doing real good well october. Two thousand fifteen. He's not doing good because he's arrested in pompeii. Oh beach charged with robbery battery driving with a suspended license. False imprisonment of child and possession of cannabis. Okay so a lot of times when you get in trouble. Yeah you'll be getting in trouble for one thing. Let's say you steal. A car would ever charged with correct. Yeah and then everything you're doing while you're stealing that car they just keep tacking it on like resisting arrest. Hit him with this mean naked. Save resisting arrest. Whatever right battery. Oh you bumped cops head. And i'm not saying he didn't do terrible stuff no but they don't just bring in jail or they don't just arrest you with one count of this right they pile it on but the what was the the taking a kid false imprisonment of a child. Sorry michelle what false. And i wonder if he had was buddies was oh what happened. I'll tell you what got to. That's right jeeze jason. He's accused of forcing several people into his car after he thought someone broke into his house like he thought people into his house jumps in his car runs down the street. I get in the goddamn car. I know you broke into my house. Like one of those type of case so he. He was trying to get the perpetrator he's doing a little vigilante justice on side. We were talking about resisting arrest. And what i think people should try now is when cops go. Stop resisting stopper. Because that gives them authority to beat your ass. Apparently legally hearsay. I don't know if that's true but what you do. is you say time to comply. Because now you've acknowledged their order in you've said what's my time to comply with this. Stop resisting and if they don't give you one than there aggressively attacking you and that can be considered assault due to tape it to on with my phone. I assume that standard practice tape all encounters with police. Do you not do that. I don't have encounters. Please give me neither in when. And if next time i do it's going to be real frigging cordial 'cause i'm a pussy. Oh yeah getting into it man. I if i'm doing something wrong. Now get caught. I knew that was a chance that it was like if i'm speeding down the expressway there. You go and i pulled over and that cop comes up to my window. I'm going to do everything i can to get. That ticket wrote for me as quickly as possible because the time to fight is not on the road. No it's in. The court written the courtroom court dates people or or how get a lawyer. I have my pattern down now. My little pattern. That i do because you were around from my teens and twenties. I think i got pulled over like thirteen times in two or three years. Because i drove a huge big old car with fuzzy dice in the mirror and they would always pull me over thinking. I had drugs or something. I never did. Never found him so i never had them. I got pulled over one time. Because i was shot driving home and my mom in the car. My family coming home worst. We're up north. Where up north. We're going down thirteen. It's just a two lane road and there's a car ahead of me that kept fluctuating their speed from the from like fifty five miles an hour. Which is a speed limit down. Only thirty miles an hour and i'm clearly. She was on her phone. I mean i could see it. I could see her doing. Use your cruise control people. Well i started getting a little bit perturbed. And i got an area where i could passer will understandable and i pastor. You go probably went on this fifty five. Melania road as probably went seventy miles an hour air. You go got around or man. Yeah i got a minivan led it up so apparently a cop was coming the other way way down the road i mean no no chance of like hitting treasuring. It was pass. I did go over the speed limit. And that's the lie can't go over the speed limit when passing a vehicle. That's supposed to and he gave me a ticket for it and so i was not happy about that. I felt like man. You're just getting little ticky tacky here you know. Whatever capp had the worst. It was so bad. How close were you. Roll down the window. And he's standing right there. I could smell. It was terrible building jersey. Like hockey uniform hockey patio. Maybe came out of drop in. I thought maybe it's is bulletproof. Vest doesn't get washed. I don't know they wanted. You can't tumble dry those. I don't know they got. They can wash everything else so at least pop a little ozone on it or something. I don't know that's true. I'm a little mad about number. I'm you've been doing. I'm thinking about it and the next day next two days later maybe maybe two days later a day later or at least two days later i got three and this was a city. Probably forty five to an hour away. It wasn't in my local town. It was hour away the eighth you that you're always out of district man. What's your deal. While i don't get in trouble my desert because i know most with right officer caribou. Need you to turn yourself or we're going to issue. A bench warrant was care. I got three letters in the mail from three different lawyers. John saginaw wanting to help fight my case so they might right on. Okay must go right to the the the courthouse men or whatever grab all the records read a quick form letter sure and the one guy said i can take your credit card over the phone. You never need to come back into saginaw. He basically said pleaded down without slowing sad. The one and that's the un yup. Thank you not up for the burden but to this this this lawyer bright and so he did and got didn't any points you don't fight with the known road. Whatever no i've been pulled over for stating they claim. Eleven miles over. I said one because it's right at the transition of a speeds. Speeding signed speed limit. Sign been pulled over for the fuzzy dyson. The mirror been pulled over for having a headlight out like three different times. She pulled over suspicion burglary coming out of the back of the building. I worked in. You got mechanic's tools. I'm like i'm gonna mechanic course. They do came into the back of the building. I'm like i managed the style of the key. And then that's the time when one cop pulled me over another cat pulled up. And then he started asking questions and so i was like i'm talking to him and i'm not talking to you and he's like. Oh you watch your attitude. I'm like he pulled me over to. Do i talk to you. Do i talk to you. And the other cop the flag his buddy off. He's like it's fine. he's just a kid. Go skewed but i got pulled over with doctor. Dr scotty robb coming back up north one time when we had a trail of sheet six feet behind the truck got pulled over then you such a magnet back in the day i would always get pulled over. No tickets knock wood but one speeding ticket. I guess be day not a lot lately. When i was a kid. I guess i'm dumb. Speeding tickets because i was a dumb kid. Speeding the worse. You get pulled over for the headlight and we were drinking in the car. That's a fun one. We told them we are going to bluegrass festival. New cows bluegrass festival. Oh you both follow me. He gave us a police escort festival. We all have beers in her hands. Cooler in the backseat. I dropped off at a party. One time after i got pulled over and i got taken in by the cops. Yeah i got. I got pulled over. That's right. I really showed up by car. I have to go this. I went to jail. I didn't go to jail. I went to the to the jail. Holdings l. o. And they gave me a breathalyzer test and my vehicle impounded. And they're like all right. You're free to go blue. I had i had some alcohol in my system but not enough to keep me very allowing vehicle at arden told way so the caps like we can pick you up and i'm like no i'm just gonna walk back to his party's twelve miles away. I don't gotta lotta options here buddy to get into carol view. Oh that's awesome. Joe and by the time the party it was not a party anymore. Showed up well because yeah you killed by showing up with the cop. Dudes drinking off a cake. A beer in this care polls and there is our as big as pipeline i- hop out and the cop pulls away. They're like what who is this dude under said local funds hardy. No-one will leave you girls ladies. Okay all right we need well anyway. The whole point of all of that was sometimes. When you're young. You make support choices. Yeah i mean that's where it is. So he made some poor choices Yeah he back to it. He gets accused of forcing several people in his car because he thought they broke into his house. Right so he he actually got him in the car and then he gets pulled over in his car under suspicion of robbery and assault. So the cops are like. I think those people are trying to get out of that car as guys driving around at gunpoint or what. They didn't say good. But how do you get them in the car without a gun. I assume it was point right. It was alluded to but never specified so anyway All that he's later released on bond. Well yeah he's you can't put everybody in jail. He's not famous yet thank well. That's you're famous enough. Yeah yeah december fifteenth. He a mix tape institution so he's working on that fame but then on christmas day. Two thousand fifteen cody is pulled over by police in saint lucie county florida and charged with possession of twenty grams or less than two pounds of marijuana and possession of drug paraphernalia christmas on christmas. You're not supposed to do that and be caps. Aren't supposed to give tickets and christmas. I thought that was the law was going to say well. You can't be driving around smoke a bowl of true. Everything's forgiven his birthday. happy birthday. Jesus sorry buddy get home safe. You know well that is not what happened so get a read rethink driving home from the in laws. Continue moving on february sixty thousand. Sixteen cody reportedly played the treasure sitting nightclub in south carolina. He was alleged to have engaged in sexual battery of a victim at a hotel located. Twenty one twenty west luqa st florence south carolina. The victim says she had accompanied cody to his hotel room where he said to have tore off her clothes raped and bit the victim at the comfort inn and suites. He's charged with criminal such miss. He's charged with criminal sexual misconduct. She went back to the hotel room with them after clubbing. Yes sounds like Treasure city nightclub got little pop in and she's like. Oh i'll go home with this dude. And then he was. It reads like he was so aggressive he just went right after like we bang in now so i'm not i'm not giving you know. He did something if he did something wrong. It's terrible but that cell ladies if you're at a club and some strange dude that you me at the club buys you some drinks. You have a good time doolittle dancing and you decide to go back to his hotel room. The i i mean you know why he's asking you back hotel room. Well saying he should be biting. You know that's not. Yeah that's cool or hurting you. None of that no salty point you can say no at any point but be aware if it was my daughter i was telling us to. It'd be like don't go back all right. Just as head on the swivel misconstrue. Something might have got it back to the hotel room. I wonder if she likes to play jenga. That's not why they're going there now. Oddly that could have been in that would have been okay but yet and that would have been fine. Just don't don't don't go back. You're asking for trouble that's the way to put it. Yeah yeah yeah unless troubles. What you're looking for might have been looking for trouble. Yeah she well not bad trouble easing. Maybe she found out. He was a semi famous and soundcloud rapper. What's it's somehow sure. I mean it's just an online it's online music repository or whatever you want to put on their podcasts. Our podcast is on soundcloud dot com slash kind of music. There's only the ike turner episode. But it's there. Yeah no instead of the traditional route through radio labels and record companies use self produce. Put it up on a soundcloud where people can listen to your music. Download your tunes man. And so you skip a lot of the corporate bs. But there's not a weighty paid maybe not as quickly no you kinda. it's like that whole in one. You either hit it or you don't but you keep working at it and then eventually you might get the whole in one and it. Sounds like cody. Here's gonna get that pretty soon. So i didn't tell them to cash do that. Catchy six nine correct. Check that episode. Definitely soundcloud rapper. It's just the new way to get your sound out there. It's one of them. I mean you can do youtube youtube. Instagram live wherever you want all of them but these kids Him little yati the little dudes like that. Go to soundcloud. And then that way they skip the conventional barriers like oh lawyers and all that stuff you know my music to the people. What and you don't need to know anybody. No yeah the helps but you don't need to be good and get lucky. Well speaking to be being. Good april twenty first two thousand. Sixteen cody is arrested. Again and charged with possession of a weapon or ammo by a convicted felon possession of marijuana and multiple traffic violations ammo canada mo as a convicted felon apparently Depending i probably the caliber of ammo is at the right term. Oh right like. I mean what gives a bullet without a gun. Throw real hard. Yeah olenin like stone but yeah right. The bullets be kind of a waste of money. Okay cody allegedly spotted purchasing marijuana from two men in front of a known drug dwelling spot drug dwell marijuana what year. This is two thousand sixteen. It's not the law go crazy. They'll very reasoning. He flees from the police. He runs red light before finally pulling over please who claim to have seen cody. Toss a gun into a dumpster and later recovered a loaded glock twenty. Three forty caliber pistola. They book him. He's held on five thousand dollars bond until his release in six months with a twenty three. It's got the shorter handle is it. I was. That's why it's in. There is like i figured you know what the twenty-three is. Forty cal yeah. The twenty two is a normal size gun. I think the like the handles a little shorter little easier to consume all. You're doing better okay. And the and the glocks of one that's made from mostly plastic. It's gun plastic fantastic. I don't think it can get through Oh no the firing pin while the barrel firing po. Okay rings he can replace all those set. The fire had been. Maybe this was the question my wife has last night. What if you fire a gun out in space. And i was like nothing. It's gonna make a click because springs going to activate the hammer but there's no combustion because there's no oxygen it doesn't need access so the firing how how we do burning what the book all of the gunpowder. Oxygen is required. Whoa wow i came in very agro. Sure did we just as does. I think no no. Oh yeah that's like saying you can light. Imagine space now you need you need. What's for matt right. You need oxygen for gun. No you don't need. It's built into the gunpowder. There's oxygen in the gunpowder. Oh shit shit. Hard time with the fact that there's guns in space and i'm like i guarantee you their guns in space. I think it's been documented that there are guns. There's a on the international space station. Yeah i'll just say that there's a gun there's a way to. I don't think you want to shoot a gun on the space asian. Vote a little hole. That's a problem and now wherever you shoot that. Bullets gonna whip around the earth at that speed for infinity. So that's how that works physics okay. Thanks brian curran physics. Well okay. he's he's in jail so at that time. Though may two thousand sixteen. He's featured on french montana single lockjaw from french montana's twenty first mix tape. Mc four you've heard of french. montana. Well i know i know his sister hannah. Yes that's very good. I don't and billy ray. Cyrus i'm pretty tight with so yeah well just know that this lockjaw single peaks at number twenty three on billboard's hot rb charts and that means dude is sort of making it mainstream so right. He's in the top twenty five on the billboard. Whatever with french montana's so now he's kind of making it. It's not billboard. Whatever it's billboards hot are nbc slash hip hop songs chart. Okay but it's a noted chart and he's on there at twenty three guy charted all right. He's he's doing well. He was doing better today than he was yesterday. Except for in jail. You really gotta hit the c. h. Uncharted could be misunderstood. Very very charted charted guy charts made two thousand sixteen may eighteenth two thousand sixteen cody's arrested again in broward county florida this time in connection with open warrants related to the previous charge of false imprisonment and armed robbery. You don't go to the court date or she award for you so while he's in jail for this arrest outstanding warrants for the criminal sexual conduct case in florence and the marijuana possession charge from december also brought up. So they're like since we got you here also says yes and and so. He's detained while in custody. So we put a second set of handcuffs on. It will right like wait a minute. You're the guy so nice. By the time he got to the sally probably at three or four says of handcuffs on him. Yeah again he was getting in trouble for not taking care of the trouble he got into already. Just go to your court. Why is it so hard everybody's struggles everybody god. Well maybe we wouldn't have them on our our podcast. He did everything right. That's true with this wouldn't exist. Maybe people out. Brian that do things correctly and still and well. No they don't get out our. Oh yeah you've never heard of them or you've heard of them. I've had he's been in trouble. Never went to his court dates. Willie nelson you never hear about it. I gets pulled over all the time. I think we could do an episode and willie nelson. It's in the pipeline. He's got some tax issues to which is a boring crime. That's true but he's i would like to see the list of noted celebrities and people that you've heard about and singers and politicians and movie stars and sports folks that willie has smoked with. Oh god the political figures. From what i've heard i i've i've heard a few different stories and willie's always been out in front saying i smoked marijuana all the time i smoke weed. I can't do my nelson betcha. There's a lot of people out there that do that. Keep it quiet. But you know when willie's in your town and he's out as little bossi's got his boss you pretty much have to smoke weed with willie nelson like that'd be cool. How would we. That's the thing right doing you. don't smoke weed. Not willie nelson man. I mean that's like. I don't even know who. Who would you have like a drink with. I gotta have a drink with that guy. Sam adams sam adams. I would have to have a drink with sam adams. That's a good one. No i yeah you. Hey you wanna last. Night will ios in thailand and smoke a big fatty boom batty. Blunt with william. The boss smelled really. What's the name of his boss. Boss name is both has a name. I don't know what it is. He goes but i think you might be right. Is it named after a horse roy. Rogers horse yeah and then his guitar is named something as well. Like i was gonna say lucille but that's bb king. Beat the fuck up. It's got a hole in it from those picks drums and all that a lot of famous people have all right. Well we visit. Willie nelson podcast. Check out our willie nelson episode. Go back about three minutes. Great art who. Yeah here. we're still talking about cody. Yeah we're still talking about code. Cody fujifilm we're still talking. About cody. june two thousand sixteen. He releases his fourth mix tape little big puck little big. Pa k he's trying to get a to pocket and biggie kind of okay. Little big pook trying to evoke old names. Yup and so man. I skipped one. I'm sorry i got that again. Sorry michelle august two thousand sixteen cody single skirt reaches number ten on billboard's bubbling up. Aren be hip hop singles chart. Correct june two thousand sixteen. He releases his fourth mix tape little big paw that becomes his first to chart on billboard reaching number forty nine on top rb hip hop albums chart in number eighteen on the heat seeker albums chart i. I wonder how many different charts there are. And how many of them that kinda parallel each other. You know like there's a lot a lot of charts so maybe buy into a chart and use a on big big rap big daddy chart whatever and that's the name of your chart chats the big picture the big big daddy. I am number twenty three on the big big editor. If you say with authority it sounds i number two on the big rap. Big daddy charts. Cody he's saying enough thirty like you know what you're talking while you're using fake graphic daddy. Daddy that's the chairman. That's funny well along with the big big daddy church. June two thousand. Sixteen cody is named x. l. magazines two thousand sixteen freshman class and is that a big magazine. I don't know actually. I felt cloth excelled bigger than nextel. I suppose it's really not gone from. Xl the to xl. It's not double the size. Yeah well luckily. I'm back down to the else now. So yeah loser. August two thousand. Sixteen cody has criticized. When a studio session video is recorded it's released it. Shows him ridiculing dark skinned black women with lyrics which imply those women were less attractive than light skinned black women which is considered a type of misogynistic warr or anti-black hatred towards women. See i'm i'm happy about that. I love all women. I'm not even know. I'm glad that there's somebody getting in trouble of caller for being racist or miss against women misogyny nar nar noir. Yeah and so often. It's such a white people. Get in trouble for being racist against black people. But there's careful buddy well known just how you approach it. Well pump the brakes there. Take about forty percent off. Yeah no but you know. There's there's plenty of other racism out there and oh yeah it should be as frowned upon his it and so if this black dude i'm assuming he's haitian and he's now giving shit to the darker skinned girls compared to the lighter skinned girls for it so he should get. He's rung up on flight bull. Do buddy come on. Don't do that everybody else got in trouble for being addicted. It's your turn. Don't be a dick stop being a day. That's a good that's a good motto for life. Don't be don't cool man because dude we got this august sixteenth. Two thousand and sixteenths. Unfortunately after three months in jail cody is sentenced to one year of house arrest and five years probation. He's also reportedly ordered to complete community service. Anger management and community control supervision programs during this hearing atlantic records executive vice president michael. Kirshner was in attendance. And he said that quote he cody. Quote had a bright future recording artist. Now you adieu. Remember back in the day when i told you i loved to be under like do whatever. The minimum thing was to be under house arrest for awhile. Yes i do call that. I've changed my mind. You don't wanna do that or you don't want the ankle bracelet. I don't wanna do it because you said he was under house arrest and moya would talk about some of our people that were under house. Arrest me like walkie. Dude got mentioned in the hills. You're doing all right now after the whole entire lockdown bullshit like. Get me that house. Gimme lockdown in my Estate montano with one hundred and fifty acres. Whatever no even there. I i need to get away. I just need to get out of the house to kissel everybody's there all the time. I just just give me of here. Well the judge declares cody would be permitted to tour internationally while under house arrest so he gets what you want. What exactly so. You're not in trouble at all. Well you have to stay at home which will hold on. We'll get there. You gotta stay at home. you're touring internationally vets. Only if you're overseas okay. You state your house. If if you're in america you gotta stay home. Stay at your house. The entire world at your disposal. You do whatever you want or you can go anywhere else on the global. Goddamn if when you get to america you get off that plane. You better repair shooting onto your florida. Broward county in your freaking house. Yeah that's where you go I think i'm going to tour internationally. For how long was as the rest for its towards. It's really funny. The extended all he's doing is he's going to like an irish pub somewhere in ireland in singing one song while drinking and having fun for a year yes toured. How many were in your audience While the bartender road he's always show of those guys are good for you. Guys set up the lights and the music guy. Danny great showmen great. Yeah no well anyway. That's but that's daily got man. So that's what happens when your ordinary horton right. Enough record producer record producer. Michael kirschner yeah. So prior to his release from broward main jail please discovered two more outstanding criminal warrants. The first one from florence south carolina felony criminal sexual conduct the second for saint lucie county. Florida alleging two counts of misdemeanor marijuana possession so cody's not released from jail in addition to the warrant. He's charged with criminal sexual misconduct florence case. He's charged with sexual battery which carries a penalty of up to thirty years in prison so long time while he's in they keep finding more shit on him. What it's amazing to me that in today's day and age technology that the most advanced age of communication ever to counties bordering each other can't communicate a adults crimes dude. The doctor's office in the hospital didn't talk to the hospital when i went to the doctor's office about when i went to the hospital. That same building dude. Yeah and again. We live in the most advanced age of technical communication. Like all they need is a facebook. cry hashtag out on the same tweet. All you need is loosely. Restructured twitter and you could have all the people that commit crimes anywhere in the world. Right there come to the same top time and date stamp pinned to the top and i i swear still go to court today and when you're in trouble the dude the clerk the docket guy lower. What's next on. The docket will hand the judge. A big fat folder a manila folder with like binder and ragged papers hanging out the side and do a little stringy. See in the middle of a bible and okay. What did you do today. And he's going to read the whole thing but if it was on a computer format i would feel much better like with the star trek like that little clear pad. They used to hand people. That glass tablet in the. Then you go. Captain and captain like flexes finger. Maybe if they like that the technology if they close if they had a thing that you could just touch with your hands notebook but but skinnier fitter yeah then page paper bigger ones or smaller ones happen depending what you need. You only need one button on it. That's it that's it the rest of it would all be screen. Do we should make one of those all right patent and a lot of money all right so here we go. September nineteenth two thousand sixteen kodia sentenced to one hundred twenty days in prison again after pleading no contest to one charge of possession of twenty grams or less of marijuana and one charge of use or possession of marijuana paraphernalia from that. Two thousand fifteen traffic stop and saint lucie florida. So in addition to serving the prison time the rappers driver's licenses also suspended for a year and he's ordered to pay two hundred ninety eight dollars in court fees. So i mentioned at the beginning of the podcast here about trump commute and a couple of people. There have no of notoriety. Or whatever. No spoilers no no no. I was in that article i was reading. He was there. Were like e people. You've heard what our holy cow. okay. I didn't know that a few of them were totally legitimate bullshit. Sure don't get no but he did. Pardon a lot of people that like one dude was a mechanic for a a operation of drug dealers. What yeah he didn't even like do. The drug dealing just kept the cars around and he just kept you. Know like hey. Can you fix this car and you know. Make sure we are ready to go to our next drug deal. He was in jail for like. Yeah pay years. What's oh wow and there were. There were some other ones that were very minor drug cases this guy. He's getting in trouble for one hundred twenty days for a little bit of we'd less than two pounds right but of states that are in jail for twenty thirty years for about that same same crying. California's jobs are sick. With people who liked grow operations and stuff that are now completely. Go right but you did it before before it was legal. Right so commute your sentence. I believe that presidents do that usually. They'll do it every year. They can people whenever they want the president. I will say that you broke the law and it's no longer illegal. You should be let free and most of the time that is the case but a lot of time. The red tape just gets in the way. Oh my god you know and a lot of the people that any of these presidents do commute are just waiting for red tape to clear a bunch of seventy eighty year old hippies. Just like i didn't do anything wrong. Man like willie nelson style. Wow how ebola's are anyway. Well a while. He's in jail two thousand sixteen coating releases the song. Can i know you're in jail you cannot brian's inflection don't stop don't release the magic december first two thousand sixteen after serving his time in florida. Cody assent sent to south carolina to handle his sexual assault charges there for biting a check. The correct he walks free after paying one hundred thousand dollars in bond and then posts on twitter. I'm happy to finally be going home to my friends and family. I look forward to clearing my name in the very near future. I wanna thank god my family my team atlantic records my lawyers and all my fans for your continuous love and support. I can't wait to get back to doing what i love. Most working on being the illest. Rapper alive i i feel like somebody the illustrator alive during the fingers. Now yeah baby forever. Two thousand seventeen cody broadcast and instagram. Live of himself in washington. Dc in a hotel room with several other men while alone female performed oral sex on them. Cody's instagram count hit record high during that broadcast. They can show that stuff instagram's no later. He posted a message to twitter about the incident reading. If i could change. I swear i would. I tried everything. But i'm just so could all at that's not even a lyric. That's literally what he said. Well he thinks and lyrics. That's probably dream -sition seventeenth two thousand seventeen cody releases. The single being a musician tunnel vision. The song debuted at number twenty seven peaks at number six becomes. Cody's first top ten hit on the us billboard. Hot one hundred. That's legitimate chart number seventeen on the canadian hot one hundred and with that. We're going to take a quick break as we do high school band. Twenty one days. We did not do the kodak black thing. We were not like soundcloud rappers. We had to make shit on old four track tapes and this is one of those gown zone and we're back that songs bad. That's maybe the best song on cd. Would you say i would say yeah. It's title the title track called. Actually it's not but saw the albums called mama's mess there are tapes guys if you want them. Send me a semi three dollars. And i'll ship it to you're gonna have to buy an eighty dollar retro but when you can find a boombox you'll be a great. Yeah i i don't like the boom. I think the ones that look like little like rectangle and small and oh yeah yeah that original sound like a leather case. It slid into like a purse. Yep i was just gonna say the one that looks like a purse and then the headphones of the day basically looked like these headphones professional recording headphones. They came back around just that phones. And then you saw that one. Little tiny headphone. That looks like your buds. Now oh yeah and you're like wow like i must be ray shields high tech. Yeah right or he works for the cia. My neighbor greg. Whatever he had sony tape player. That was just a little bit larger than the actual size of the tape. And i was like oh so cool. 'cause i tape player was old sony sports walkman so that big yellow thing with like a flap a door as waterproof sweat proof. 'cause all the sweat and i did listen to music. Maybe butchering this little bit. But when they first came out with the walkman name-brand walkman walkman sony. They had some that were sold in japan. Had to audio jack so two people could listen wall off the same walkman and they decided that that was now what the walkman needed to be needed to be personal used. They didn't want to turn those to it. So they purposely downgrade air. They filled that hole in and they sold them to the united states. And there's only a handful of those japanese ones out there all through the exact same except for that one little jack and if you find one of those. It's it's like the holy grail of walkmans that's treasures men who money when you go rolling through like a secondhand store or restore whatever you know what you're looking for man you can. You can save a lot of money. Make a lot of money. I don't wanna get too far on this conversation. But i've always had a little spot. Those guys that go to storage units have paid on god and the optional sturdiness. No that's all fake storage wars. All that is fake. That's fine no. I don't wanna be on the show okay. But they will do that. Oh yeah no. It's a real thing there's a catalogue of what's in each of those units though everybody knows exactly not exactly but a large idea of what they don't dig it out and run it all down. They can go in there real quick and look at a few things. There's this that and the other yup but there are. I guess maybe at set. There's a treasure in their treasure. Your treasure hunter hiring treasure. Yeah she you wanna map you wanna dig and five paces off the north shore fun. What you're doing rain it in keep. It contained much like that february. Twenty eighth two thousand seventeen while out on probation. Cody doesn't seem to understand. He's supposed to quote remain confined to his approved residents except for one half hour before and after approved employment public service or another special activity approved by his parole officer. So go directly to where you need to work and back right no stopping offer donut now or as you may recall if you're a boxing fan during this time cody was not confined to his home. He walked pro boxer. Adrian boehner to the ring in cleveland for his fight video. A lot of people saw that. Yeah absolutely roloff sir. I think brunner one. If i'm not if i'm adrienne bronner's good boxer immune also. He turned up at a nightclub in miami that same day. So oh gee prison. Yvonna duty. Absolutely adrian brunner's a champ bro. And now i'm not gonna talk boxing mma. I don't know boxing. I will say that But these are both probation violations from that false imprisonment charge back in two thousand sixteen and he gets cody right back in jail. Back and broward. County florida makes you think what was going through his head. He knew he wasn't supposed to do that right and then he did it. He broadcast it literally broadcasted television. No yeah when you're walking boxers to their ring you're going to be seen by millions of people and and when you're walking boxer to the ring were don't ignore the rings at no now focused on that. Go radio i look i i am out earlier today i got the route i got this and i'm the only one apparently they can do it. Because i'm violating my role for this cody. Cody can't do it 'cause now he's locked down without bond Reps from atlanta record lawyers lawyers. Louis said quote lawyers are working diligently on this matter. Lawyers mags money. The black and better tour he was on is now postponed. Yeah well yeah. I seriously i sometimes thing that you do things wrong in his position. The ticket that streak cred. Oh okay there you go this. It doesn't get no. This isn't cool. This is just like arrogant ignorance. Whatever man and then it makes you wonder. Is he doing because he's stupid or ignorant and there is a difference. There is a difference better than worse. But yeah i feel like he's can mean stupid. I even feel like there's a little entitlement in here like because he's got atlanta cracker. You got it. Let record lawyers and that's what it is. The they've pulled that route it out of the hat more than once already. So whatever. I can do what i want. I got the switch nor the rings at follow me. Speaking of march thirty first two thousand seventeen cody releases is debut studio album painting pictures debut studio album the rest of more mix tapes okay. The album reached number three on billboard. Two hundred sold seventy one thousand equivalent units the first week. And that's a record cody while discussing rappers on the fellow. Two thousand and sixteen x l. freshman list uzi vert little. Yati cody creates a beef when he insults them while conducting a livestream instagram interview. Little little who's evert replied stating that. He was not bothered by the insult but that he still fucked with kodak black so i guess he was just talking. Smack these guys off though. Well here's the thing. I'm gonna get in trouble with some segment of our audience at this one. These are mumble rappers. Familiar with number wipers like little. Yati muga boo boo. Every now that was my impression of snoop. Dogg making fun of these guys. Because that's what he says he's like. What is this all about. What even saying and so if you indicate that that's not real rab or i've even seen these guys in interviews where the old heads like dudes from the eighties. We'll be like you got to pay respect to all those guys before you gotta respect the shit old man. I'm doing what i do. And so these guys take a lot of heat. They say a lot of controversial shit. They use the social media to sort of build up their name. I think that's what cody was doing. He was just sort of like fire a couple of shots like these dudes now. We're talking about it so you got beef bigger than you be with you. Little yati bigger walk little yachties bigger than kodak black and little vert i would say they're about the same level. I am not a rap aficionado. Any regular listener to the show knows the whole in my music. History knowledge is the rap game so feel free to get a hold of us at any social media livas speak by crime. Music dot com. Tell me i'm wrong to me. I don't know shit that's great. Let's all agree out there in the audience at brian is the he is the beginning in the end of saying what is and isn't more popular in the rap world. Oh yeah okay. You're in charge. I'm a content expert in the genre of rap back. Not brian's now brian rap god. Yeah on rap. I do not know those things. So between april twenty first and may two thousand seventeen. Cody deals with a number of legal issues. Skipped one back up. June twenty second two thousand seventeen after filing a formal request permission to record new music and perform with rap artist with criminal records to june. Two thousand seventeen. Cody's request is granted and he's allowed now to record with other people who are in his situation so he was being legally told he. Couldn't patronize with people ahead. Correct other legal issues doesn't want to get together with the girls dirt scheming plotting a gang if you will you know. No so he so he was not allowed to say. Do a duet with anybody. That had priors correct. Okay yeah they kept them apart interesting. Isn't it though that's the thing right like you've heard of that. I guess you gotta have a good team lawyers and now some egghead. In the bureau of justice is going to stamp your paperwork with other reading. The list of people. Like what do i. What do i care. Little yachties saying at my at my son's bar mitzvah. We'll let him go. This one's named after a boat. This one's named after a gun. This guys named after film. Fake and hang out. I don't see what's going to happen. Whatever between april twenty first and may fourth two thousand. Seventeen cody deals with a number of legal issues on april twenty first. He's accused of grabbing his anger management. Counselor by the arm after. She threatened to call nine one one when he refused to leave the session so she asked him to leave because he was quote intentionally disrupting the session by burping repeatedly. Sorry michelle third is five days later april twenty six. He's found guilty on five counts of violating his house. Arrest walking adrian. Browner to the ring probably doesn't help on may fourth. He's sentenced to three hundred and sixty four days in prison with the possibility of early release if he completes his life skills course so if he can make an omelet or do laundry. I don't know what's life skills. He's successfully finishes the course doilies and he's released in june after serving only ninety seven days. That's better than three sixty four. That's three months instead of twelve months. Palley 'em in august eighteen two thousand seventeen. He releases the follow up to project baby. The cleverly named what do you think it's called toddler project baby to it should be toddler. That'd be great. We're all just project baby october. Nine thousand seventeen in grand jury in florence county south carolina. Usa indicts cody for first degree. Criminal sexual conduct in relation to the encounter that he had with the teenager at the conference weeds back in february. Two thousand sixteen so is divided. Honestly he's only got his main route of of issue was the sexual assault thing at the comfort inn. Ripe and some drug charges and that thing where he went and got the people at rob. This house made him going their car. Yes so really been doing a lot of bad. He's just keeps. What are you talking about. He abducted people off the street going to jail for carrying one point nine pounds of wheat around with him everywhere he goes. His driver's license isn't isn't current. He's assaulting people outside a strip clubs violating house arrest by walking boxers and going nightclubs. And he's not doing any of the coordinate and he's done none of us coordinates. He assaulted his anger. Management counseling because she stopped burping. Like you get freaky. Kind of hot jude. Trying to no excuses for this guy hasn't killed anybody yet. We're not gonna go there we'll see. Let's see what the cards i still got like. Twenty cars left november two thousand seventeen. Cody releases a deluxe version of project. Baby to titled project baby to all grown up. Did he had like a foldout. Poster came in with a cd. You know you get by. The cd yanked the little thing. Unfold at u. penn in to your wall poster. No but the deluxe version did contain the single codeine dreaming. Which peaked at number fifty. Two on billboard's hot one hundred. Okay get a little extra november thirtieth th two thousand seventeen cody signs an agreement to pay four thousand two hundred dollars a month until two thousand thirty three for child support to jerem jan. Shemaya broomfield the mother of cody son. King khalid oh. He's got a kit. He does all right now. we can do some reverse. Math from two thousand. Thirteen mine is eighteen. Which is like six something five. Two thousand and fifteen must headed so they go Papa so it's two year old we're dealing in addition to paying child support. Cody will also be responsible for son's health insurance cost but he will have his tation rights. So that's actually good kitchen. His dad the father figure. Yes even if it's that dude man. Speaking of that dude january eighteenth two thousand. Eighteen cody is arrested at his home. In florida on several charges including grand theft of a firearm to charges of possession of a weapon or ammo florida delinquent adult felon possession of cannabis over twenty grams child neglect without great bodily harm and two counts of parole violation while they just keep stacking up on them. How did they know. Authorities were alerted during an instagram. Live video. Which cody appeared to be surrounded by guns n. marijuana while in the presence of his son. You're just those you're broadcasting. Why don't you call the cops go. i'm gonna break the law Let let's know tomorrow at three. I'm gonna break the law. You can watch it live on instagram. A nip slip right guns and we'd and young children and i didn't know justin timberlake is going to do that. It's not my fault. Well however lawyer lawyer lawyers filed motions to dismiss the charges claiming that the marijuana in good and shown in the video were merely props created for creative use. Only great right. I can do anything. I want on instagram. And say acting as a beer can but you'll never know. Yeah i hate that shit. Man that's symbol. They're like prove it doing. These are just fancy guys with degrees ago. Yeah okay you saw picture. You don't prove it's not it doesn't mean it's real shadow of a doubt. I doubt anybody should be a lawyer. I think we are lawyers brian. Yeah you don't think i'm a lawyer. I approve it. Then that's what a lawyer would say to you. How dare you doubt me. I saw video one time real quick. This guy was sidebar. This guy was all dressed in a fancy sued tedtalk sorta stage not the actual ted talk stage but similar to that and he goes. Smoking is bad. I don't know if you know this. But ninety seven percent of all smokers smoke eventually. We'll have health complications and die of smoking. Everyone's like oh he's like you with me. That's a lie just lied to you now. What i'm going to tell you about is that you will be convinced by what you hear. In the way people say it. And that's what makes it truth to your mind. And i'm like oh god it's so. Yeah it's really funny because very quickly right. amanda suit whipped out a statistic. And you're like oh like would you believe it with conviction. Dude get a clipboard. Walk around say so conviction. You go wherever you want. You can go to parties. You can go weddings. do yeah. No the facilities manager told me. I have to check on the fire extinguishers over in the hallway be the accessory tunnel. Thank you are you're in the oscars that's hundred percent true. I have often walked into places that i'm not supposed to be whether it was a cancer or a baseball game. Sure for my job. I did a lot of cold calling it. Businesses and the hardest point to get into that business is through the front door receptionist. Yup she is trained and exercise daily to stop salesman from coming in and bothering people her. That's her gig. She's really good at it or guy. Don't go there doorbell. Go to the side door where the dudes are outside smoking and then just ask hate bill. Mckay work here no. Hey where's the maintenance guy at boom guy you talk to always a maintenance guy. I'll cool tigers head. go tigers. Go sports sports what you want to say it with already own the place when you're walking through you've been there one hundred times man we did you. Just tell people how to break and enter or how to enter. I guess not to break but how to enter. I told people how to get invited me. I will follow you this advice for entertainment purposes only. It's all perhaps Speaking of entertainment entertainment. That's what i would call cody releases heartbreak. Kodak mix tape on valentine's the damn hard cody releases the heartbreak. Kodak mix tape on valentine's day two thousand eighteen okay. We're getting close to today. we're getting there. And creeping up february twenty-second second two thousand eighteen. Three of the charges. He caught following the raid on his home drops. Doodoo sprucing doodoo. I did prove it prove. They're not real guns. Prove it despite the drop. Charges cody faces. Four other charges including marijuana possession possession of ammunition and was held without bail for violating his probation april seventeen thousand and eighteen. Cody pleads guilty. To violation of driving under suspense driver's license and thus is sentenced to three hundred and sixty four days in prison. However being cody already spent ninety days in sincere arrest he could be released as early as october. Eighteenth on good behavior and that's kind of a win for the guy because it's like Your time so we'll edit your time and maybe finally he's starting to show up to some of these things seem i guess some business there. You're working on no. I'm honestly looking at this. List of trump pardons because he might be on their. Hold your horses buddy. We're getting real. Close all right all right chief. I don't know if you've ever listened. Gordon lady oh god day he'd garage people. If you don't know g gordon liddy as he was involved with the watergate scandal is a spice and jesus by this he is a spook would kill people for the government and he had a radio talk show yes he did he was on and he would just i up holiday table. No this is the temporary legs he would. He would pound on the table and get so mad on the microphone. You could hear him pounding on the. It was like one of his props its onboard. Sell sell sell them in the head. Shoot them in the head. That's what he told people when federal officers. If you've got to defend yourself don't shoot him in the chest because comedy ruba. You gonna shoot them all trove allen. I would imagine he has to help. People figure it out to dude. I mean we got grand theft auto teachers how to do it pretty much all right. Tibet controller up a couple of degrees may fourteen two thousand eighteen. A judge orders pleased to return items to cody that confiscated during the january. Two thousand eighteen th raid on his house. No that's that's at thing we're caps when they arrest you whether the right or wrong can take all your stuff dude and then like etta jones. It's your you're you're free and clear. We'll where's that diamond gold earrings and my watch and that pilot. Don't we kept that. Among the items sees where cash jewelry clothes art in a hard drive with unreleased music on it and electronics xactly. They give them back. Just seems like they did okay. August eighteenth. two thousand. Eighteen cody is released from jail after serving seven months of a one year sentence for possession of ammunition and possession of marijuana august twentieth two thousand eighteen roughly a week after his early release from jail. Cody scored another victory. When the department of justice recommended that the rapper be let out of the probation stemming from the drug possession charge. He caught following the rate of his home in light of the recommendation. The court terminated. Cody's probation immediately lawyer louis. Okay so he's not even probation now. Nope he's outta probate court even an although he doesn't have all those can't be around guns and ammo i believe if he's still a felon he still can't possess those things. Yeah gones anyways. They think. And am or ammo of a certain caliber. It can be an instagram video of your buddy. All of a sudden gone you can be with your buddy. I think so. Yeah right well. Continuing on the idea of positive progression during the time in jail that he just got out for cody seemed to be trying to get his life turned around. He earned a ged. Legal name to bill k. Capri and even tweeted about writing a book. I think of things you could learn from cody. I'm we're learning stuff right now. This is a book. Yeah that's true two thousand and nineteen. He garners more controversy when he offers to a wait to have sexual relations with lauren london. The girlfriend of nipsy hustle. He recently died. he was shot a few days beforehand. And then cody's like. I'm gonna wait to have sex with you lauren. So cody said he would widow. Yeah a nice guy. Cody said he would quote give her a whole year. She might need a whole year to be crying and shit for him so he claims what like i have. I di- brian. Hey thanks man. And then i die year. I'll give you a year. Then i'm coming back He received immediate backlash for these comments. Dj the radio station power one. Oh six which is a very influential rap and hip hop radio station. Just incredible not the wrestler announced that the station would be boycotting kodak's music credible said quote. We stand with family of nipsy hustle and are appalled by the disrespectful comments made by kodak black. Do you think he thought he was like being nice giving a year. You know. i don't like being around crying bitches. I think he's just some asshole. Fired up some thought and his head without thinking about the reality of it so but fellow rappers t know again. We've made some of these mistakes fellow. Rapper check out our episode and the game also responded ti. I said quote you out of pocket in a video recorded just for cody sent him that. And then on. April seventh responded. Saying if i on april seventh responded saying quote if i fuck. I can't say that we're like you hit a wall. Bryant words your heart. April seven cody. Respond saying quote disrespected you. Lauren london in any shape or form. I'm sorry me. Even though i didn't know anything he doesn't matter april. Two thousand nineteen concert promoter files a lawsuit against cody for failing to appear at his concerts. Cody didn't show up where he was supposed to promote it. Still doing cancers. He changes name. But now he's still rapping and stuff. Okay well he's still. He actually had somewhat of a religious thing when he was in jail and so he actually gets to call himself bill. Kahan blanco which is is some type of bible or koran reference. He had so many nicknames. I couldn't run them all down. I mean he got he he. He's still doing music stuff for money. Oh yeah kodak black man you can. Yeah you can look them up. But don't go ask. Nick fits about him. He's a promoter that claims that cody was contractually obligated to perform for him on march. Third two thousand seventeen in new york gate name was dick fits. Nick fits all right. And it's different. Mr fits the dick fits would be a whole different story. This is nick fits as his dad. Richard nick rescheduled the show for april. Seventeenth cody doesn't show. But that one right. So you're like dude come on all right third time. Third time's a charm. They say guy schedules update for the third time. Three strikes. you're out. Cody doesn't show up for that. One either fits states. The incident cost them over five. Hundred thousand dollars in losses hurt his reputation as a promoter and he is suing for over half a million dollars On meena vitz true. That's bad honor. Your contract zooming had a contracts. Exactly what was Did was there an excuse. Why nothing he's probably in jail. Not so you think about the dates. Real quick vince noise in jail. That's not his obligation. That's like you signed a contract to appear that's on you either. Rescheduled at three times and that setting up. The banquet room though for that concert fits tried doing it right. Man he's like. Let's get a kodak concert. Okay no not this. Sorry guys. he's in jail. We're you're scheduled okay. We got the second one come is going to be awesome. I've been talking to him this time. You respond to my emails. Now he's in jail again. Okay no third time. God damned if this kid doesn't show up all right now. He's not here like you said yeah. Don't even bother with the chairs guys in jail for those reasons i do. Not but that is pretty much at the time line are so anyway. That's still yet to be resolved. April seventeenth two thousand. Nineteen cody and three others are arrested by. Us customs border protection agents trying to cross into canada from new york. He's found with his glock nine. He's got marijuana and he's taken to niagara county jail. Okay that's april two thousand nineteen. Yes okay kobe times. They're trying to get into canada that he can't do that at can't cova. That's before twenty twenty. So this is when you could freely travel to see sima buddy. Mike candidate candidate. Mike cody pays somewhere between twenty to forty thousand dollars in bond. So we'd probably thirty thousand dollars a month and then walks out of the jail with a fan of cash covering his face like headed on me. Oh he's big cash right. There flipped it out. To just fanned it like deja money. Let me go less than a month. Later he is arrested for weapons possession in miami florida just before he was set to take the stage at a hip hop music festival rolling loud. He is apprehended by us. Marshals four and federal firearms violations following what is described as quote extensive investigation. So they're they're watching him isn't isn't the term i. I'm i'm probably wrong on this. One rolling loud rolling out. Isn't that mean you're basically you're pat you're holding you're doing you're you're going. You're driving with a weapon in the car with drugs in the car. You know more than i do your man. I didn't know what that was. Is that what. It is rolling allowed. Sure it is now. I believe it don't be. Don't be rolling loud. everybody that may determine roll. Roll real quiet. i like it. I still can't. Hey yeah come wheeling up your in loud if you're gonna be at a concert and illicit term is what it is and that's the name of your counter and you're gonna be there. Everybody knows you're on the playlist. Yup got the guns. Don't give the caps of reason riding arrest you in person they can tell us not a prop they will no. I'm not ride with ben. He's rolling loud right dirty rotten dirty. That's i think if you got weed on your drugs going to be rendered a key has since put up his six hundred thousand dollar broward county home. Collateral for his half million dollar bail. Prosecutors are arguing. He should remain in jail because he is a threat to societe. Heli probably is gonna say himself some money by not getting in trouble if he just stays in jail for a while you get the care of if convicted. He could face up to ten years behind bars so that would save a lot of money. Don't want him get more trouble. That's all you can do. I mean that's half a mil right there for bonds. So i mean he his whole that many records dude. Some college free november. Thirteen two thousand. Nineteen cody takes a plea bargain. And he's been sentenced to forty six months in prison shorter than the ninety six months he woulda got and the rapper had been involved in a fight while incarcerated that involve injury to a prison guard. Yeah ok well fights happened in jail. That's true but so basically he's getting halftime because the plea bargain march eleventh two thousand and twenty cody pleads guilty to firearms possession case when he was charged After being detained at the canadian border with the glock the court is considering between two and seven years in prison which will run concurrently with this forty six months that he's already serving for lying on federal paperwork so as of june twenty twenty and cody is serving federal sentences at united states penitentiary. Big sandy high security prison in china's kentucky. usa says. I like that name in october. Two thousand nine hundred and cody is transferred to united states penitentiary thomson that is on january. Nineteenth twenty twenty. One president donald. J trump commutes cody sentence in his twenty twenty conviction and a quote from black jay. Black little black little kodak project. Baby bill k. capri bill con blanco dyson octave kodak themself quote. But i feel like. I have enough knowledge to get by in life. Obviously i don't know everything. But i feel like i have enough to get me through kodak black ladies and gentlemen wait for it. Wait for it so win win. Did that come down. The the commute thing january nineteenth gonna find his name. Yeah right so that puts it at like two days ago. No time stamp. That's funny where you think. Kodak black there are some crime and that one. I think you said there were a couple of different names of the albums that he did in a name or two that wrong about. I'm gonna have to see. If i've i have listened to overnight little kodak i think is the more popular nickname man i. I think this poor guy was that he it is a trip. He thought he could just keep getting away with stuff and it wasn't like he was doing those cool gangster. Get in trouble or go to jail for you. No big time gun battles or right. Whatever no he was getting in trouble for little bullshit and he's every time he got in trouble for little bullshit he didn't take care of and then got in trouble for more little bullshit. I'm not seeing biting woman that doesn't want to be bitten little but it's not like don't do that in the head you don't do that either. Yeah and then. The drops in the weapons was just continuing remaining the little penny fights and everything else. It just kept piling on to a heap of bullshit before it could be digested getting out of the way. Yeah no go to court handle your shit. Get a big wall. Calendar desk calendar just read down. This guy could have. Maybe been a lot bigger if he wouldn't dealing with the buzz so much. Yeah it you spent more time in your social media is instead in court. You have bigger following. The he might. There's hope for everybody. I suppose you will do a part to on this guy. no no. he'll do much more no. I don't think you think he turned over his leave. I think he's got i think he's reached a level of fame and success. Where we're not going to hear about. Remember that list of people you talked about in the beginning like hey i wonder how many people break the law we don't hear about. We'll call that paola list. I think kodak black is graduated to the paola list. I'm disagree all right. I mean let's check it out only to be confrontation. They just say. I think we're going to hear his name. Come up. i think you're right and since we're talking about part two's episodes we're going to wrap it up for this week man. I was just up and down. I guys he's like. Oh i'm making soundcloud wrap of now famous in jail again in jail. Oh okay. I've got out on jail again. I'm going to canada. I got a gun so man it was just kind of all up and down for this dude. Haiti probably stroke. She's like nevis. America's complex this shit having haiti. Well guys if you wanna hear about shit that happens in america haiti or others around the world and involved musicians and their misadventures in the lawbreaking hit us up on all the social media's let us hear your voices go to crime music dot com. Scroll down to speak pie. Widget hit record leaves message. Guys are awesome. Benue suck jason. Where are you whatever you want to tell us. tell us you like burbs burbs Men anything you can imagine but hey homework for the folks out there. Scher get your dogs bark. Oh dog messages are awesome. I don't know if you know this. But are we have two mascots. Golden retrievers on the old podcast. And i think ben's got a dog. And i think jason we have. We got a dog crew for for mascots. So we'll put those up on social media. We want to see your dogs on social media programs rhymes with dog and Well whatever everybody It's all out of whack now. 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cody Jay black florida kodak marceline dyson maryland earl sweatshirt Brian jenkins lee michelle superman michelle zehr bill k Hey dusen Kahan blanco dusen Pompeii beach willie nelson jack black laura leonard mr ford susan okay
Feb 23, 2002: Betancourt and Rojas Kidnapped

Today in True Crime

12:34 min | Last week

Feb 23, 2002: Betancourt and Rojas Kidnapped

"This episode is brought to you by amazon prime video. What if you thought you killed someone but couldn't remember. Emma isn't sure what role she played in the disappearance of missing girl. That girl's mother is determined to find. Emma and the truth watched the amazon original series. Tell me your secrets available now on amazon prime video today is tuesday february. Twenty third twenty twenty one on this day in two thousand. Two colombian presidential candidate ingrid betancourt was traveling to the demilitarized zone and son be sent a one with her campaign manager clara rojas when they were kidnapped by the guerrilla group known as farc. They were held captive for almost six years. Welcome to today and true crime spotify original from podcast for today's story listener discretion is advised. This episode includes discussions of cruelty. Abuse and sexual deviance that some people may find distressing. We advise extreme caution for children under thirteen. Today we're covering the kidnapping of ingrid victocrat. Ou're and clara row haas. Let's go back to the skies above columbia on february twenty third at around seven. Am it had already been a long day. Clara rojo's was in crisis mode when their plane landed for a brief layover while in the air. Ingrained betancour's entire campaign staff had read a concerning headline in a local newspaper in grids campaign in disarray. She's on her own. The article was the latest in a series of political setbacks. In grid had recently suffered. Clara was already reeling from the week before when a number of her key campaign staff had resigned during their layover. Clara arranged a last minute. Press release while. They sat in the vip waiting room. They needed to project the image. That ingrid betancur wasn't alone and was gaining momentum as the may election drew closer. Ingrained had suggested the day before that clara didn't have to join her on this trip. It was a risky one. Peace talks with farc had recently dissolved and the mayor of sun be. They'll kahan wanted someone from his party to show. The government had not forgotten them. Despite the danger in grid agreed to go. Clara insisted on going to momentum was momentum and she needed to be by in grid side to show her support both as a friend and campaign manager. She would spend years regretting this decision. They arrived in florencia just before nine. Am on the twenty third. The plan was to take a helicopter from there to sunday sunday. The first army helicopter arrived at ten. Am filled with soldiers and officials. It left ahead of them in preparation for the arrival of president on dress donna odongo who was also scheduled to visit that day. This visit came as a surprise to ingrid's team who thought she would be the only politician visiting the area that day. The presidential plane arrived at around eleven. According to ingrid the president saw them but didn't acknowledge them and just walked on by in grids. Entourage was at a loss. It was unclear whether they had authorization to proceed all the military helicopters left and none had space to take ingrid delegation. They had two choices traveled to somebody sent by land or give up and go home. The latter seemed too much like admitting defeat. The local department of security agents agreed to set them up with a pickup truck but without any security personnel to join them in the end. The car would only take five people in grid clara a driver and two journalists who were covering the campaign the lack of security mystified clara and ingrid but they were unwilling to waste any more time arguing reassured by a promise that security would pick them up for their flight. The next day they set off it was hot that afternoon. According to rojo's it was eighty five degrees in the shade. They encountered an army checkpoint fairly early and received word that there hasn't been any recent fighting in the area they stopped in the town of montana's to refuel and then the trouble began their kidnapping began without fanfare. A young man stepped out onto the road in front of them and wait for them to stop. He carried a rifle and wore a machete on his back within minutes. They were surrounded by armed men in uniforms. Suddenly a loud explosion came from nearby and one of the men standing nearby fell blood running from a wound in his face. The guerrillas loaded him into the politicians truck and the young man with the rifle climbed in as well in the chaos. Someone shouted to the driver to take the man to a hospital under the instructions of their new passengers. Ingrid's car sped off ten minutes later. They reached another check point of sorts. Where the group was divided up and put onto different vehicles. Ingrid and clara were set into the back of their own truck and taken deeper into the jungle in all the shock and chaos. They were only just now realizing what had happened. They'd been swept up in guerrilla warfare and kidnapped they would never make their appearance in son. Be sante coming up. We'll explore the fallout of this kidnapping. And how these women eventually gained their freedom listeners. I am thrilled to tell you that. This month marks a huge milestone for podcast. It's the four year anniversary of another fantastic podcast. Host called serial killers. If you haven't had a chance to dive into the stories and psychology behind the most nightmarish murderers of all time. There's no better time than right now to start listening each week. We enter the minds the methods and the madness of the world's most sadistic serial killers from the son of sam david berkowitz and a coed killer edmund kemper to eileen war dose ed gain and coming soon the night stalker richard ramirez and this february lookout for our four special on couples who kill following. The worst love has to offer their names may sound ordinary but their atrocities are anything. But trust me you do not wanna miss it with hundreds of episodes available to binge and new ones released weekly get to know the killer's crimes and cases that forever changed. The face of history followed the spotify original from podcast serial killers new episodes air every monday and thursday. Free on spotify. or wherever. You get your podcasts. This episode is brought to you by home. Chef take a break from takeout and increase your kitchen confidence with home chef get recipes and perfectly portioned ingredients delivered right to your door so you can prepare your own meal and impress yourself with your new skills for ninety dollars off. Headed home chef dot com slash spotify. That's equivalent to ten free meals when you sign up that's home chef dot com slash spotify for ninety dollars off now back to the story on february twenty third two thousand two in grid encore and her campaign manager. Clara rojas were both captured by guerrillas. Just outside of samba center. They'll kahan the guerrillas were members of a group known as farc which stood for the revolutionary armed forces of colombia. According to ross the two women began plotting their escape within three days of being taken. They attempted to escape twice. And after the second attempt. A rift between them began to widen due to stress and the frustration of the failed escape attempts as their captivity wore on bitcoin. Core wound up being absent for the election. In may of that year she received only point five percent of the vote. An attempt was made by the french government to rescue but encore who held dual citizenship with france but it went horribly wrong and the rescue team was unable to locate her the last time. Either she or rojo's were seen publicly was in a video farc released later in two thousand three after that the public had little to go on besides the word of farc members in two thousand six a curious rumor reached the press about row haas. She had apparently given birth to a son three years. Her captivity who she named immanuel details of the father are scarce but the prevailing story is that ross had a consensual affair with one of her guards. The childbirth had to be conducted via caesarean section with the rebels sterilizing their surgical tools over a candle reading instructions on how to do it from a medical book row. Herself refused to comment on the circumstances of emmanuel's conception saying the only thing i will say is that during my captivity i underwent an experience that left me pregnant. It was forbidden among farc. Soldiers have sexual relationships with their prisoners. So it's been suggested that emanuel's father was banished or executed thankfully this harrowing experience eventually came to an end both rural hus and betancur were rescued in july of two thousand eight by the colombian military those six years in the jungle going from camp to camp change. The course of these women's lives immensely the once tight friends each wrote books on their respective experiences and moved on with their lives as much as could be done after their rescue. They haven't worked together since. Thanks for listening to today in true. Crime i'm vanessa. Richardson for stories. Similar to this one. Check out the spotify original from podcast hostage today in. True crime is spotify original from podcast. You can find more episodes of today and true crime and all other spotify originals. From podcast for free on spotify. We'll be back with a brand new episode tomorrow in true crime today. True crime is a spotify. Original from podcast. It is executive produced by max cutler. Sound designed by one boorda with production assistance by ron shapiro. Carly maddin and bruce kovic. This episode of true crime was written by robert teams. Draw with writing assistance by alex. Benetton and checking by shan lopez. I'm vanessa richardson listeners. Don't forget to check out the spotify original from podcast. Serial killers every monday and thursday. Take a deep dive into the minds. And madness of history's most notorious murderers you can. Binge hundreds of episodes four years worth and catch new episodes. Weekly listen to serial killers free on spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

farc ingrid Clara rojas clara Clara amazon ingrid betancourt guerrilla group ingrid victocrat clara row haas Clara rojo betancour ingrid betancur Emma donna odongo kahan department of security Ingrid
[REPLAY] Annie Duke - Improving Decision Making [Capital Allocators, EP.39]

Capital Allocators

59:30 min | 6 months ago

[REPLAY] Annie Duke - Improving Decision Making [Capital Allocators, EP.39]

"Hello. I'm Ted CDs and this is capital allocators. This show is an open exploration of the people and process behind capital allocation. Through conversations with leaders in the money game, we learn how these holders of the keys to the kingdom allocate their time and their capital. You can keep up to date by visiting Capitol Allocators PODCASTS, dot? com. Guest. On today's show is any duke. Any is a renowned public speaker and decision strategist who for two decades was one of the top poker players in the world. Among her highlights were winning a world series of poker bracelet. And winning the two million dollar winner-take-all World Series of Poker Tournament of champions. Her Study of the science of smart decision making began when she received a National Science Foundation Fellowship, which she then used to study cognitive psychology at the University of Pennsylvania. Charity, work and television appearances and he was a runner up to Joan rivers on the celebrity apprentice during which he raised seven hundred thousand dollars for Refugees International. He's a natural teacher and storyteller with an active mind the constantly searches for accurate truth. I highly recommend Annie's new book thinking in bets, which comes out later this week. In her life after poker, she's become a featured speaker writes a newsletter and a blog and advises companies on improving their decision. Making process have illicit website, any Duke Dot Com for more information. OUR CONVERSATION DISCUSSES ANY PATH FROM AN IVY league education to professional poker the nature of a vet how we form beliefs why we make bad decisions and what we can do to improve or decision making process towards the end. We also talk about bankroll management poker faces and advice. She would give the president on how to make better decisions. With the podcast growing an audience each week, I wanNA. Thank you for turning in and ask you to spread the word to just one friend this week. If you'd like, you can also join the one percenters out. That's one percent of listeners who were kind to take a minute to write a review on itunes. Let's keep the momentum going. Please enjoy my conversation with Annie Duke. Thanks so much for coming joining me. I'm so happy to be here. You have this background. You say that like I. Cater poker-playing background one why don't we just start with you take a little bit of time to talk about your path to poker and then where we are today so are so I started off doing my Undergrad at Columbia and they're in my freshman year I met a professor, their name Barbara Orlando and she's amazing. She's now at Johns Hopkins and she was studying first. Language acquisition in children and ended up being her research assistant for four years while I was at Columbia, and at the time I thought I'm going to stay in New York that really really really love New York. But she really pushed me to go and study with her adviser for Graduate School and woman named Lila Glickman and her husband Henry Lightman who were at Penn.. So I applied to Penn I, got into Penn visit. I loved it I. Loved Lila. I loved Henry I loved the program there. So I ended up going to Philadelphia to. Get my PhD in cognitive psychology you almost got it. Yeah. So so things take a little bit of a turn I finished my coursework got my masters did my qualifying exam I did my research and I had all of my job talks lined up. So I was going to go out for my job talks. I actually got sick right before that and ended up in the hospital for two weeks. So in the academic world, it's a seasonal market. So if you kind of miss that one season, you have to wait a full year. I'd just gotten married. My husband is s husband had a place in Montana and we said, okay we'll just go there and I can recuperate and then I'll finish the whole thing and I'll go back out the next season but I discovered that when you leave school for that time off that you're fellowship doesn't follow you and I said Oh no, I need money. and. It was then that I started playing poker in a little tiny card room in Montana called krystal lounge, which is everything that you could imagine from a little tiny bar in downtown billings Montana, with that name, it's kind of wild to come from. I guess you could call a card playing family. It wasn't this rare thing that one day you said, Hey I'll just go try poker. Yeah. It wasn't so out of the Blue I. Mean we played a lot of cards when I was growing up not poker per se but my brother, he had gone off to go to college and he was really into chassis. He was actually an amazing chess player sort of through this chess world he kind of fell into playing poker. So he had already been playing for quite a while before I ever started playing I. Think actually he'd really been playing for about ten years so. By the time it got around to this thing that I did. He had already made the final table of the world series of poker. He was originally a great player. So it wasn't like completely out of the Blue I had watched him play quite a bit when I was in graduate school on my fellowship which doesn't leave you a lot of room for like vacation money. He actually would fly me out to Vegas once a year. For. Vacation and he had given me a little money to plant some low stakes games. So you know I had some experience and he said I was just telling me, I'm like I don't know what to do like I. Don't know what I'm supposed to do to make money. Now while I'm waiting to go back to academics and he's the one who actually suggested said, you know I think that you can play poker in. Montana why? Don't you do that and so at the APP that sounds like a good thing to do for the meantime, the meantime turned into twenty years. So there you go. You recognize at the time that you're training in psychology would be so relevant for the game itself at the time I would have to say, definitely, no, there's language acquisition over here, and then there's poker over here and I didn't necessarily obviously see how those two things might. Relate to each other. Now in retrospect I can say it was certainly really helpful. But the first time that I actually thought about it in any kind of really explicit way that there was this really strong relationship between two things was in two thousand and two I got asked to give I. Talk a friend of mine named Eric's idol whose an incredible poker player absolutely one of the legends of the game who actually met when I. Was Sixteen long before his playing poker through Howard Eric got asked by a friend of his to speak to a retreat of options traders for this friends hedge fund and Eric News, his name's Roger Low Eric knew him because Eric used to trade on the floor and so eric had been involved in the world of finance as well. So his friends had, hey, will you come and talk about what poker might teach us and I think Eric had a tournament players something and I was taking time off because I was super pregnant at the time. I think. I. Was about two weeks away from having my fourth child I wasn't traveling anywhere. So he said I can't do it but my friend Anne, you should have her do it. I had to think about how am I gonNA explicitly talk about the relationship between these two things and that was the first time that it really. Opened up to me it sort of top of mind that there was actually an incredibly strong relationship between the two things and what I've been doing graduate school actually had been incredibly helpful for me in poker and could be helpful in general to understanding how do you make decisions particularly under conditions of uncertainty. So I started talking in two thousand and two actually around that same time. I got offer to go and become a trader and I was very, very, very far down the path of saying yes to that when. Poker exploded all over television I really really really love poker but I never could play it quite as much as everybody else because I had four children. So you know mom I for sure poker players second. So I had gotten offered this job I thought Oh you know that'd be really interesting. You know to to be a traitor and there seems like there'd be a good connection and maybe this will be really good training for that and the reason why step back from it was that that was the year that the. Sap got televised with the hole card cameras for the first time. The WTT started and took a step back and I said to the company that was thinking about her and me you know, let me take a second like I may come back to it, but it seems to me that there this might be kind of an interesting journey of its own now the poker's on television. So I decided to continue down that road and on that journey that hooker was offering me and it was incredible. But from that one talk in two thousand and two I was getting referred out and what I was discovering even from that I top it was. Really reigniting the fire that I had for teaching when I was in graduate school one of my favorite parts of it was actually teaching, and by the time you finish your master's who actually get your own classes. You're not. You know just a Ta and I loved it that idea of like communicating to an audience and having them nod in agreement and feeling this sort of thing about what poker is the total, not zero sum ness of it. All was something that was really fulfilling something in me that I wasn't necessarily getting from other things and so once I started getting referred out. I started really actually focusing on developing that business also unparallel. Which I did and what were those first set of lessons that you imparting on traders what I. got asked to speak about by Roger was risk and I didn't actually talk about it. I ended up talking about something else which was tilt. So tilt for people who don't know the word because it's a very poker term sounds like a pinball term. Well, it is a pinball term. Exactly. If you think about a pinball machine what happens when you shake it, it's sits down and says tilt in the mechanics kind of don't work. So borrowing from that analogy, you can think about when you're. Emotionally lit up, it's like your brain is shaking and shuts down the prefrontal cortex shuts down your ability to reason in the same way that a pinball machine just won't work anymore said, that's where the term comes from. Actually it is a pinball analogy admits been brought into poker. So here's the thing and poker. You have a really good thing happening that also can cause a really bad thing to happen. You have a chip exchange sits occurring. So you're essentially marking every single transaction and you're following the PL right like you're seeing it in real time. It's like you're really watching that ticker. There's something good that comes out of that, which is that it forces you to recognize that every single decision even the little tiny executional ones on your way to sort of a larger goal have upside and downside associated with them that there's risks in every decision that we make even the little tiny ones and in poker, you don't need to wait so much to see those play out over time because there's this compressed timeframe. So that's the good. Thing. 'cause you really focus on the execution and poker because of that but the bad thing is as anybody who's done any ticker watching in their life knows is that that can really light your emotions. When you have those down swings, you can get really emotional about it by the way. Also, when you have a big upswing, you can overreact to that as well and when we get into the emotional part of our brain, we don't think well. So, what I talk to them about was, how do you manage this? So I was imparting some thoughts on how to sort of make sure that you're limiting how much tilt is affecting your decision making I wanna come back to a of the tools that you've created. When I think about a bat and I was looking your book thinking bats I think about poker I think about sports gambling betting, how do you take that concept of a bet and then make it broadly applicable to decision making. So I always say it's real easy because all decisions are actually bats it's just a matter of making that explicit. So if we think about what about is, we're trying to make some decision about how to invest our resources that's informed by the beliefs that we have. About what the possible future might look like obviously when you're playing a game like poker, the thing that you're investing his money, but there's other things that we can invest like time we can invest our happiness we can invest our health. We have these limited resources that we can invest. So once you start thinking about that, that's what really is well gosh that sounds like any decision that you make if you are in a restaurant and you're trying to choose between ordering the chicken or the fish. If you order the chicken, you're foregoing the fish. So that's the limited resource you have to choose between one. Or the other and you forgo all other options when you choose the chicken and you're betting that the future that results from having chosen, the chicken is going to be better and have a higher rate of return for whatever it is. In this case, it might be health or happiness or enjoyment or whatever. Then the future that would result from ordering the fish. That's not any different than if I bet on a hand of poker, it's the exact same thing. The difference is that in poker that is made explicit and that's a really good thing because we're always betting on an uncertain future whatever the decision. Embedded in that, you talked about a better decision being based on beliefs and we met through Michael Motion and talked a lot about the economists work. So there's a lot of hard wiring about belief system one and system two thinking that caused us to get things, wrong? Yeah I. Loved Your description in the book of the Science of the brain that prevents us from getting these things right and then what are those problems issues that we have and making good decision I think they'd a lot. Of people are really familiar with Dan Gilbert's work stumbling on happiness. They might know him from the prudential commercials as well. You know where the people like put up like much be saved for retirement isn't enough I don't know a Harvard professor. So Dan Gilbert is very, very famous for stumbling on happiness giving a tedtalk on it, but people actually are less familiar with some really interesting work that he did on belief formation in the nineties. So here's the issue if you think about the evolutionary history. Of the human species. So now we're talking about what is the machinery that we're we sort of come with in terms of our brains. For most of the evolutionary history of our species, the way that we form beliefs was through our perceptual system. I couldn't tell you something that happened in a remote part of the world that you had never experienced. Right. There was no way to communicate that. So you're forming beliefs based on what you see. You see a tree. Now you have a belief about that tree you touch something. So this is all happening to our senses. It's perceptual if you think about. Perceptual belief formation. There's really no reason to vet the beliefs because we don't come across things like. Or hallucinations very often. So if I see a tree, I can mark that as true. I believe that this tree is there. I've marked true belief possibly like something could happen like if you happen to end up Mirage, you saw something on the horizon that you thought was something and then you came up close to it, you might then change the belief but mostly it's like you you see it you believe it. And then that's it. That's the end of the process now as evolution does, and this is very beautifully described in a book called Kluge by kind of Gary Marcus really highly recommend it. Whatever Lucien often does is create a Kluge that's like let's macgyver it. We're GONNA take some toothpaste in a paper clip and Of Wire, and we're GONNA make a bomb. So we have this way that we form beliefs, and now we've got this new thing which is that we can form abstract leaves. I can communicate things to you about things that you've never experienced for yourself. Now, you can form an abstract belief of course, storytelling re-re it's exactly so. Evolution as it will does not say, Oh, we're going to build brand new machinery that processes information in a totally new way to handle this new stuff which abstract instead it says, let's just glomming onto. It's already there. We have this perceptual belief formation system. It's worked really well for us. It's stopped us from getting all the Lions on the Savannah. So a US, we'll just use that and that's exactly what happened. So intuitively if. I were to say to you, how do you form your believes I'm betting you would say, well, I, here's something or I read it, and then I think about it and I think about what I know about it, and if it's true or not, and then after I've done like a bunch of thinking about it than I decide whether I'm GonNa Logic tour not so you think it goes here it vetted a step two and. Lodger belief true or false step three. So what Dan Gilbert showed? In the nineties was no no, no, no no. It's just like perceptual believe. You. Hear it. You lodging his true and then maybe later on you vet it. So now we believe what we hear and what I point out in the book is that's not so much of a problem. If you actually get to step three, step, three would be the vet check it know check against reality. See what the objective truth is. Make sure that you're calibrating your beliefs updating them all the time so and so forth. So if we knew that we were doing step three the fact that you sort of defaulted to believe it's true. I. Not such a big deal. The problem is that there's all sorts of work that shows that you just don't do step three, and that's where we really get into trouble is that we hear it we believe it, and then like maybe if we have the time or insulation later we might do some vetting of it, but we vet it in a way to. Sort of confirm the belief that already got lodged for this reason that it wasn't even vetted in the first place and will work really really really hard if we're confronted with information that disagrees with the belief that we've lodged in this really haphazard way to make sure that we discredit the information that disagrees with this haphazard belief. So you can see how this? Can Cost. Problem. A little bit. Just a few you can't think your way out of it right? It's just hard wiring. Yes. So there's really amazing work by a guy named Dan Kahan. He's at yeah and what he's shown is people know a lot about confirmation by confirmation bias specifically you're you're kind of noticing information that confirms you and you kind of don't pay attention to you don't notice information that is disconcerting. So Dan Kahane's done a lot of work in this sort of larger process called motivated reasoning that not only do you have confirmation bias. But if I hand you information force you to read it. So now you can't ignore it of something that disagrees with you. You will work incredibly hard to discredit it. So if I give you a scientific article that agrees with a belief, you have you'll go. Yeah sounds good. And if I give you a scientific article, the disagrees she'll be like. Well, here's all the problems with the methodology and their end was too small. Know I think they might have been hacking and you know you will literally just come up with every reason why this isn't true. Okay. So that's really part of motivated reasoning is that our beliefs drive the way that we process the information, which then reinforces the belief. So it becomes the circular pattern. So what Dan Kahan showed is that being smart doesn't help. Because I think intuitively, we think well I'm a smart person and now you've told me about interesting. And I kind of know about these biases. So I'm not GonNa, do it anymore the nozzle keystone of actually has done some of this with blindspot bias that the smarter you are the sort of the bigger, your blinds about biases. So conscious did this work which showed that if I test you for how good you are with statistics would just analyzing some sort of neutral statistic lake does the skin cream work I assume you don't have very strong emotional opinions about yet. I can find you some people who. Guessing. So if I can't do that the results of some sort of study about skin cream and now I just test how good are you it analyzing the data assume you'd be very good at it and I take you compared to somebody who's maybe not so good at analyzing the data. So now I've got divided into two groups. The statistically adapt people in the statistically not so dead people now I give you literally identical data, but it's about gun control. and. What happens is that how biased you're reading of those statistics is they were perfectly fine with one was cream is actually correlated with how smart you are and it's correlated in the bad way. So the smarter you are the better you are at kind of slicing and dicing this data to support whatever your prior is. So, if your prior is gun controls a good thing, you'll slice and dice the data to support that if your prior is gun controls terrible in it's horrible. Then you'll slice and dice to support that the people who are not so good with statistics while bias don't show as big a bias. So let's see. It's. We're pretty hard wire to make some bad decisions and the smarter we are the worse it gets worse it Gatz and we don't even better believe it's a lot of doom and gloom so. It is, and so you know as we've talked about right I'm in the world investing and it's easy to see how applicable it is. Is there anything we can do? To fix the problem or at least to not screw it up as much. I looking for good news now we're dying. A. Week. Have a lot of his news. Excellent. That's the good news. So so let me start with. The title of the Book Thinking Bats. So the first step. is to understand think about the information in this new way where members advantage that poker players have that I talked about at the beginning is that it's very explicit that these kinds of decisions are bats and that your bets are informed by your beliefs. Now, here's the thing about that. Is that WHO wins a bet? The person who proves there right? In the confirmation by kind of way or the person who's developing the most accurate representation of the objective truth it's clear that the second person is going to be the one winning bats. So if we start to think about things is bats which makes the risk explicit, it forces steps three. If we go back to Dan Gilbert's work forces that vetting step very intuitive. Let's say that you say some thing that you think is a hundred percent trip. For example, you say citizen Kane won best picture use announced that was certain to. Let's say that you now say to me. Doin about what happens to you. Wait a minute. Let me think about that too. I WANNA bet on citizen Kane is best picture. So this thing that you literally said a second ago. As, if you were just one hundred percent sure that was true. You now start to go through that third process. Well, what do I know? What does he know that I? Don't let me think about that because he may have information that I don't have anything about that. What other things could have won that year you ask yourself how sure it I am of that one hundred percent. Sure probabilistic. Right. So it forces you to start thinking probabilistically if forces you the start going through that step three process of seeking out information in a much more unbiased way because you're trying to figure out what the objective truth is. Now because now you're being forced to put something on the line. It's sort of a skin in the game question. So that frame through which we look at things is the first step to understanding how. Do, we calibrate our beliefs and really really really wonderful things happened from that. What starts to happen is that you start to express yourself in a more probabilistic fashion because you don't want to get challenged if I announce things and then attach some sort of level of certainty to it. So I say now if I speak to you and I say, well, citizen Kane won best picture I'm going to say I'm sixty percent on that. I've done to really wonderful things. First of all, I've accurately represented with my state of knowledge is which is always better better decision makers, but also invited you to be my collaborator. To help me vet this and that is going to get us too much better. Decision Making is going to get us to be less biased. I've invited you to check my bias for me. And there's two reasons why opening that door wide open with this of uncertainty is really helpful in getting you to help me. The first is that when I express things total certainty. One thing you might do is not tell me what you know about it because you're embarrassed because I've said, it was such assurance that maybe now you think you're wrong about this whole citizen Kane thing. So that's reason number one but reason number two is even if you're pretty sure that citizen Kane didn't win, you might not tell me she didn't want to embarrass me. We have all these social reasons why might not do this? Once I say sixty percent. There's none of that I mean I mentioned true in the trading world in the allocation world people just state their case and so that lesson is hey, if you state your case probabilities I, you end up with the richer conversation. So not only do you end up with a richer conversation, but you're more believable as a communicator so I think it's a little counterintuitive, but our intuition is always good. So I mean our intuition is that when I hear something, I bet it before I said whether believe it we know that that's not true intuitively I think we think that. As leaders, we need to express things with confidence and we confuse confidence and certainty. So we think if I say I know it's going to be this way. Percents sure this is true. That's we're going to be more believable communicators. Well, first of all, that's not an accurate representation, the world because there's too much luck involved. So if I say to you like I know the future is going to be this way if we make this decision, that's patently silly because there's too many things that can intervene. So am just Presenting the world that way when I speak that way but also more believable as a communicator because when I say to you here are the possible ways. I think it's GONNA turn out and I'M GONNA make stab at assigning. To this variety of scenarios. Now you look at me. Wow. She's put a lot of thought into this. She's clearly informed. She's telling me what she knows and what she doesn't know she's acknowledging where her knowledge gaps might be or where she needs help or any of those things and that in itself makes me a more believable communicator. The other thing is that in particular people who are leaders need to be very careful about the way they express things because anybody on a team who has leader up at the front saying here's the strategy we're GONNA. Do this and you know I'm sure of it. The people on the team WanNa be eighteen players and being team players not disagreeing with the boss. But the other thing is that if we go back to that work that we talked about with Dan Gilbert, how easy it is for me to infect you with my belief, we hear it. We believe it. So just by expressing how you think things are going to turn out you've now caused virus like even -ffected everybody with your belief and they're gonNA tend to reason toward your conclusion because now they're going. To be sort of late, invited into the confirmation process with you as opposed to the exploration process with you what a great device to just improve the way we can think get into probabilistic thinking by just asking someone who wanted that and I have to say I used this Oh my daughter last week I'll tell me twelve year old. I don't remember exactly what she said, but she threw something out there. And I just finished the book and I said Hey WanNa bet and she lost. And it works I'll show. Through and you could see it. You could see it in her head. She pause whatever she had said to me she completely understood. So that was great I love getting that feedback of the application of the book I mean obviously at this point, you're one of the first readers of the L. hearing that application and seeing it in action it works. Thank you for telling. Let's talk about more. What are some of the other devices that we can use to improve? The way we make disappears thing. So we have this kind of general framework, which is this idea of thinking about things as bat, but we know. Let's just beyond. That we're pretty biased and let's assume we're smart. So it's even worse. So really what WanNa bet does is a gets you to think about what does it mean to win? So our default is winning would be affirming that our beliefs are already true that bad things happen our fault that good things that happened to our credit and that sort of what nature has sort of defined winning as for us as we but that's a big one. So that concept right there of good things that happen we take credit for yes. It's called self serving bias seems like a good name for it. A good decision would ever is if something doesn't work out not our fault, this series of circumstance. VOL toughen bite well, low vol environment now. All right. So that's sort of like the programming. Okay. That's what it means to be. Right. But WanNa bet does is it shifts your idea of what winning means so winning is now actually Having the most accurate representation, the world and that really comes through the accountability that this idea of betting is because when you challenged your daughter to about you're holding her accountable. To. Her beliefs in a way that we don't do what that does is it makes it so that instead of viewing. That disagrees with us as an attack on our identity. It now changes that helpful because now if you have information that might calibrate my belief. Wow, that's gonNA cause me to be a better now the rules of the game it, but it's really hard to do on your own. That's the thing. So we're all just really biased. We default to these natural ways of thinking kind of the way that our brain works but here's the thing and I'm sure that you've noticed the senior own way. Do you think you're better at sort of noticing your own baggage or other people's when other people running around taking credit for all sorts of or just being like Oh, loss because. Insert hard luck story or thing that was unpredictable or whatever. They couldn't control. You spot it right away your likes comas. and. What that tells us is that other people are actually pretty good at. Spotting our biases so In the same way that you sort of naturally recruit people into the process with you. When you express things probabilistically y not do that intentionally and purposely recruit people into the process with you. So you can form a really good group of people who have decided together that they have a commitment to accuracy. That they're gonNA, hold each other accountable to that commitment. And necessarily that they're going to be open minded to diverse viewpoints and they're going to consider counterfactual and they're going to look for information that disagrees with them, and they're going to be all sorts of things like a really good credit giver a really good mind changer belief calendar or all of these things and and get people into that process with you because honestly they're going to be better sort of seeing your stuff than you are, and now you can be really helpful to each other and then side benefit, which is actually in some ways, the primary benefit is that they're going to reinforce. These new habits of mind. So If you're in a group which has this commitment and we all know like, let's be honest like when someone else is doing really well, and things aren't going so well for us, it's hard to give them credit. It doesn't feel that good. But if you've gotten some people together who've made this commitment together now when you give credit, they're going go. That's amazing that you give credit to that person because they know things aren't going so well for you. So like good on you, that's so incredible and the thing is that that kind of social approval. Can Be like the biggest pellet for the rat you know the biggest reinforcer, and now that's what's going to start to get you that good feeling as opposed to just sort of the immediacy of the swatting away of the bad thing. Now, the idea that I'm really good at giving credit to people and these people have now reinforced that for me that's GonNa Start to get you to this place of being. A much better decision maker and it's all about how is the group sort of reinforcing these kind of commitment to being unbiased and minded, and all of these things through this accountability mechanism that the group is providing, which is something you naturally see at a poker table. So if there are rules good rules for the group, so there is accountability to the truth sounds like some type of positive affirmation of the process. Are there other kind of rules that you would say if you want this type of feedback loop together here, the three or four things that you should establish as the way we're going to communicate together absolutely I'm so glad that you asked that question I think it's important to understanding what makes a good group? Why is this really important this accountability piece So when you form a decision group and here's the wonderful news, you might be thinking to yourself who am I gonNA recruit into this process with me like how am I going to get a good group going and the good news is you don't need very many people. You actually only need three to borrow from Phil- Tat Lock Author of Super Forecasters, you need three because you need to disagree. And went to referee. So in the batting world, if we disagree, we have a sort of Phantom third person, which is the bed itself, which is now going to sort of referee the situation for us. But obviously, in the real world, we're not just throwing money down on the table. So you need a third person and they can act as the referee in a disagreement. So go find yourself a couple. Of people and then now really form a contract. So you have to agree to a few things. So you have to agree this commitment to accuracy. You have to agree that you're going to be accountable to each other for the decisions you have to agree to be open minded to diverse viewpoints, and then how you can stand she ate that right? So how do you actually stantione this commitment to? Exploratory thinking as opposed to confirmatory thinking, and it's through these ways of communicating to each other and these commitments to the types of conversation that you're having that. You can really actually borrow really nicely from science and from scientific norms of communication within that community. So there was a guy named Robert Mertens super famous guy in science and he came up with these norms for scientific communication there called the Mauritanian. You can google them, but it's an acronym that you can remember it's called Kudos. So the first is communism definitely not the political kind communism meaning that data are shared. So, what does that mean? It means that in the scientific process if I'm doing a study like within my group, obviously my data belongs to me but once I publish to the community, they have to be able to see the data in order to evaluate a proper. So we can think about that in terms of communicating with each other because smart people are really good at spinning the data and sort of presenting a case in. Like highlighting certain things are leaving other things out in order to drive you toward their conclusions. So we don't want that to happen. So within your decision group be as transparent with the data as possible. Now, a couple of things is whenever you feel like you don't wanNA share a detail. Those are the details you should share. That's very good rule these it probably means that it's going to cash in a bad light in some way. You in a bad light or your belief in a bad light or maybe it's GonNa Argue against the conclusion that you're trying to get across and that's where it's getting uncomfortable for you. So make sure you share those but one of the ways to actually really make sure that that happens is to essentially create a template for the details it must be shared because then you're always forced to share the exact same things regardless of. Whether they support your conclusion or not, these things must always be shared otherwise, I cannot give you any kind of advice that has fidelity if I do not know these details. So that's communism. Universalism is ideas have objective truth regardless of who the person is WHO's communicating it. So the example I think I given the book is that it doesn't matter whether it's Mussalini or George. Washington or your mother telling you that the earth is round. The Earth is round regardless of whether you like the communicator or not. Now, obviously, if I'm talking to a PhD economics and they're giving me an opinion about trade, their opinion is going to have more fidelity than somebody who I just met on the street who does not have a economics. So you obviously have to take those into account, but all things being equal. The truth is the truth. So one of the things that will happen is that we will change our opinion. Depending on WHO's delivering the message. So here's a really good thing you can do into group is when you are trying to talk about different viewpoints and get people's opinions on viewpoints. Don't say who has the view and I think that we can see this in our politics now. So an idea that had a bomb set, it might come out of trump's mouth all the people who've been like that's awesome. Obama you're so great it comes out of trump's mouth. And they're like, no, no no, that's ridiculous or vice versa. Oh, that was ridiculous Obama. ooh trump you're so smart and it's literally it's the same words. So why is that happening and it's because people are not applying this norm of universalism they're evaluating the message in light of the Messenger. It's like you know don't shoot the Messenger for this is don't shoot the message. So as much as you can when you're communicating these things either tried to leave the Messenger. and. Just present the case as stated and VAT it in absence of that or you can also imagine like, let's say you don't like the Messenger you could go through the process of saying well, let's say that for example, you say what? If Obama had said it if you happen to be never-trumper so just sort of trying to think about the hypothetical counterfactual I think that's a really good thing to do. So that's the you in Kudos and then D is disinterested nece, which we all have these conflicts of interest and we have to think about conflicts of interest in this very specific way in this financial way. So. You have you know disclosure forms for conflict of interest. Okay. That's interesting. It can cause a whole lot of problems. The real conflicts of interest comes from this issue of motivated reasoning and confirmation bias. We're always trying to make sure our beliefs are true. Of course, there's going to be two things that muck up your decision process within the group. One is your beliefs and to if an outcome has already happened because you're GONNA? Try. To reason to make the outcome, make sense if I tell you. Oh, I think the strategy is one hundred percent true. You know it's going to work sore of it. I've now infected you with my belief, and now the group is going to try to reason toward that when you're trying to invent a decision, don't say what your belief about what the correct answer is. Just leave it out in the financial world really deconstruct the trade before. You get the result of it. So you've decided to put a position on deconstruct that decision process prior to say an option expiring and the more you can do that the better. But if it has expired if you are past the outcome, which of course, happens in poker all the time. Then when your communicating to people who don't already know the outcome do it's Just don't tell them. Okay. So that that's the deep part and then the Os part is objective skepticism. So approach the world asking why aren't true as opposed to why they are hard to do the opposite completely hardwired you did opposite. We don't like thinking about counterfactual is we don't like thinking about. Well, what if it fails? So as I'm sitting there and I'm saying to you, well, what do you think I? You know I, want to make this particular investment I should be asking you. Tell me all the reasons you think that this is a really bad idea. because. That's more valuable to me because I already know why I think it's a great idea to tell me if you argue against it please. So you can do that within your group as well within your company. You can do that through really creating red teams. So you have red team blue team that's one way do it and notice what's really wonderful about the red team thing in particular remember I said, we have this team player issue is that the game for the red team is to disagree so you've actually now to be a good team player on the red team it's all about disagreeing. So that's actually a really good way to sort of solve the team player problem you can do that. You can have a descent channel which is anonymous. That's another good way to do it. There's a variety of ways. that. Organiz skepticism, can we talk about mental time travel? Yeah. Because when you're writing about, Jerry Seinfeld. MARDI MC fly I. can't help bring them home. Well, I do get to Lauren Conrad from the hills on MTV earlier in the for. Yeah. Sure. What do you want to know about mental time travel you talk about how shifting your mindset I just love those examples. Okay. So here's the thing. Like the back to the future movies I assume you do too. I think it's an uncontroversial opinion to say what particularly back to the future one. Number three, we'll have a discussion huge fan of that one. But what do you hear from Doc Brown in that? You know. Don't under any circumstances interact with the yourself, the pass version of yourself what's going to happen you know? Well, the worst case scenario is the time space CONTINU- slaps on itself in the universe will be destroyed. So and you see that right you see Marty doing all of these kind of circuitous thanks to try to avoid himself because God forbid they they ever collide. This can be horrible. But what you really learn when you start thinking about, how do you become a really the decision maker is that the best thing that could happen is for pass Marty. To run into future Marty and have a a discussion, have a little chitchat about how things are going because are in the moment self is pretty bad because we're temporal discounters. Here's the issue when we think about this problem of the difference between sort of like reasoning to be right versus reasoning to be accurate when reasoning to be right coming from because. I assume that you would agree with me I. Think. That if I were to tell you. If you're more accurate in your beliefs, you will have better results in the long run in your life. That seems fair but if I'm reasoning to be right. In the sense of just a firm I already believed to be true. Let's agree that that's the enemy of accuracy. So, why do we do it? Because if I say to you, what's your goal in life? It's like, Oh, I won't be happier and Healthier and wealthier and more interesting back. And we've both agreed now that. Well, okay. The better calibrated your beliefs are the more likely we're going to get there and yet over and over and over and over and over again, your reasoning in a way that's the enemy of accuracy. So why are you doing that? This is a next Jerry. Jerry exactly. So Jerry Seinfeld does a bit. You can actually find it on the clip on Youtube and he's like Oh you know night Jerry's like I wanNA party and I'm going to have another drink and I don't WanNa go to bed 'cause I'm having fun I'm night Jerry and then morning juries like Kertu Night Jerry BECAUSE MORNING JERRY GETS TIRED AND HUNGOVER and Scott to go to work and it's you know it's horrible for morning. Jerry. But night Jerry isn't thinking about morning Jerry Nigeria's thinking Jerry's having a fun time in the moment and so this is the real problem of temporal discounting like out in the most beautiful way by Jerry Seinfeld is that we have to get night Jerry to think about morning Jerry or put another way we have to get morning Jerry to tap night Jerry on the shoulder and say, hey, night jerry go to sleep because I'm GONNA exist. And we're actually the same person. So could you please not punish me and that's really the problem of temporal discounting and it's the problem of this reasoning issue is that you know thinking fast and slow it's really beautifully laid out that. What we're all kind of trying to do is to generate this positive narrative of our life story and within that positive narrative having bad things happen because you were a bad decision maker. Saying that person's doing better than me 'cause they actually deserve it because they're going to give him some credit all of these things like Oh, that belief I had. That was really dumb all the things like they don't in the moment contribute to your positive narrative now in the long run they will but there is no, you know there's the long run. There's no morning. Jerry. So the question is, how do we trigger this really good mental time travel that can get morning Jerry to tap Nigeria on the shoulder and say, Hey, could you go to sleep or hey, could you change your belief because it's not? Accurate Guide, really like you to be calibrating a little bit even if it doesn't feel good right now and that's really the question around mental time travel I want to see how you might apply some of these tools to kind of the parallel with poker and investing when things I'm always thinking about in that context is kind of the notion of bankroll management on a poker table if someone manages their bank bankroll, well, what does that mean you recognize what your edges you know at the Vaal is. Fairness your risk of ruinous, and you make sure that however much money you have at risk in any given session. Is, essentially you're mind, Kelly? Yeah. So I have enough money in my total bankroll the given what my edges I can withstand the swings. Here's the problem is that we're really bad at the. Intuitively we're bad. We're bad at it for a couple of reasons. One is that we generally over US made our edge. With be honest. We think we're better than we are. We also underestimate the vall I. mean we tend to so we generally think we need a lot less money than we do in. Then we're suddenly surprised that we're broke but another thing that happens is that this is actually a bigger problem because I kind of step back from decision making and run a calculation when I'm an unemotional state I can say, well, I need this much money and this is how much I'm going to risk each time. And so I can sort of get that kind of under control through brute force. The problem really comes with the in the moment decision making right. So I'm sitting in a game and I have to sort of broad decisions to make but the big one is if I've decided I'm going to risk a certain amount of money. What do I do if I run out of it? And that's where we get into really big problems so. NECESSARILY IF I've run out of the money it means I've been losing. Though that means I'm until. So it means that I'm just sort of emotionally unhinged right and. LIMBIC. System is now lit up. and. I'm going to try to swat that feeling away in the moment and how am I going to swat the feeling away in the moment I'm so unlucky can't believe how lucky I am these people are really bad and I'm not losing because I'm not decision fit right now or because I'm not making good decisions I'm losing because the Kurds are going against me. Now. When you get into that mindset and now you're trying to make a decision about whether you should put more money on the table. You're very likely to put more money on the table and really bad because you don't know wire winning or losing, and that's really what the problem is. So I'm in no way shape or form trying to say that it is purely rational to have a loss limit visas not. If you were a totally rational actor, you would invest when you have. An edge to again depending on what your risk tolerances and you would not when you don't. Okay. That's if you're a purely rational actor, the problem is that you're assessing whether you have an edge or not I sort of think about it is stacking rationality is okay. So I know it's irrational to have a loss limit. But that rationality is a lot less damaging to me in the long run than allowing myself to make these irrational decisions about whether it's a luck or skill issue that's causing me to lose right now so that I press my position in places where I never should. So that then I lose so much money that I couldn't even reasonably went back in the next day so even The next day I can't come in fresh having reset with fresh decision making because I'm still emotionally unhinged from the day before trying to get my money back and then that just cycles on until I'm broke. So I recognize that the consequences of that in the long run or a lot worse than applying this other irrational strategy, which is this is how much I'm allowed to lose period. And assuming I have a really good group around me. I'm accountable to that. So at that moment when I think you know, but this is an exception I know how lucky I am right now that I'm going to have to go talk to Ted later and it's going to be like, Hey, I thought you were only gonNA lose this much. Why did you lose twice that and I'm going to have to sit there and tell you oh well, you should've seen I was so unlucky and I couldn't possibly predict it but I was making good decisions and like I've never played better in you're gonNA go come on. Tell. That's where they'd had ability comes in. A lot of the work that I do is interviewing people and so things I'm always envious bad is this ability to read poker faces Oh show are there tricks? Obviously there's a long history of experience to get good at what works. Sure. Well, first of all, let me just give you a recommendation. Isa Go read anything by Joe Navarro his is a former FBI guy and he is incredible with body language. He wrote a couple of things that are specific to poker, but he's written a few that are more in the business space. He writes for psychology today on a regular basis and he's just got a lot of really really great things to say about body language that's number one. So, number two is this that I think that what you need to do is realize that you're kind of merging two things. One is you've got these body language cues, but also you have sort of the story that the person is kind of telling you. So the way that would work at the poker table as as I gain more experience with you. I start to sort of narrow down the possibilities of what an individual bet from you means because I've seen, you bet in the past and I kind of know what your tendencies are. I have some idea of the frequency with which you're willing to enter a pot, for example, the frequency which you raised versus call versus fold when I've seen you with particular. Categories of hands I've seen how you play and so if I've never met you, I'm going to go from some sort of base rate of the category of the type of person that I think that you are. It's very busy right and then I'm going to start updating immediately as I gather more data. That's actually the most informative stuff they you can get is just seeing how do people react to certain things? How do though I? Think they're going to react to this thing based on what I know from the past and be a really good listener to those stories not talking about. Their words and talking about their actions the way they talk when do they pull back? When do they lean in? When did they get excited? When do they not get excited and those are some of those body language cues this is just sort of their bedding. How are they better now, the body language kids have to do with signs you're generally looking at signs of be uncomfortable and signs of being comfortable, and those are the two things are kind of looking for. So signs of being uncomfortable that had to do a stress are things like when blocking their something, they don't risk Ross arms. Or they'll sort of pile things in front of them. That kind of thing they're not leaned in. But if someone's to leaned back if they're taking up too much space generally shouldn't believe a thing. They're saying because people generally aren't like this there. It's sort of like purposely trying to look relaxed. But then there's other things they'll do like you'll get hooding where before they deliver something if they sort of close their eyes and then opened them again that usually not a good sign for what's bad come out of their mouth when they're comfortable, you'll see lip pursing. You'll see people I'm biting the inside of their cheek or sort of taking their tongue and like rubbing the inside of their than there's these sort of self soothing things that you do like you might rub your hand or that will be sort of looking inside of your lip things that are supposed to calm you down. It's really up versus down right when their body language is going up. That means they're excited. They're happy when it's going down not so much. So what's good to do sort of take these kind of physical cues? And merge them with the story that they've kind of told you in the past as you gotten a feel for how they behave in different situations, and that now you can merge together to make some sort of prediction. So you need to understand what you're base rate is. And I only know that by. Watching you and coming in with some sort of prior. But then as I see you always. So that I've always got a fresh assessment tournament a little time to ask my normal closing questions. But before that I know you're on the celebrity apprentice and I don't really WanNa talk about the president however. I thought it might be interesting to ask if you were hired in your business consulting seat to consult president trump about how he could improve his decision making process. What advice would you give him so? It would be the same advice I would give to anybody and I think that you can see that here's one is be curious. Be Curious about what other people's opinions are and be open minded to them. I. Think that always makes you into a better decision maker. That's true for anybody don't express with such certainty I. Just don't think that that's good for anybody. I don't think it's good for your listeners and I don't think it's good for you specifically seek out to set and that's something really important be open minded to descend don't Schwab it away listen to it and I think that this is one of the most important things that you can do in order to be a good decision maker sounds good. Okay. Here we go. What was your favorite sports moment either as a participant? Or a fan and we're going to tell me mayweather. Is. For No, I don't. Now what will let you answer however, you'd like okay if Poker's a sport. And I'm specifically talking about like something that I was participating in poker is sport than it would have to be. NBC. National heads up championship where I got the chance to play against air sidell in the final. Now understand I said before I'd known Eric said L. since I was sixteen. He was incredibly important mentor to me and so to be able to face. Him in a final. That was such a sort of combination of lake. You know this big history of my life and that was really really amazing. But I guess I have to say if not sport and it's just me I mean to be fair I live in Philadelphia so we just have to go with wow the eagles really crushed it against the Vikings on Sunday. I don't know what's going to happen on February fourth. Come out right after unfortunate. Yeah. So well, I don't know right now what will happen, but we'll know the result by the time this comes out, but that was a pretty great moment for them to make the NFC championship and I believe that the last time that they've made the Super Bowl with also against the Patriots of if I'm not mistaken. So first of all, that's cool. Second of all, my brothers, a humongous Patriots Fan and you may wonder why am I? Really he's patriots because we both grew up together in the same household because I did not watch football when I was growing up I started watching it when I was in graduate school at Penn. now used to go to the eagles game all the time and I watched it every Sunday, and so I ended up being an eagles fan. He was a patriots fan. Now for the second time you're going head going head to head really flying. Now I just like what I watch it. I don't have enough of an opinion about football to be enough better at football what teaching from your parents most stayed with you. This is going to be one for my father. I was probably a teenager late teens something like that and he said to me if you have one really really really good friend in your life, you're doing a lot better than most people. I think that that's always really stuck with me. As a way to sort of move through the world. What information do you read that you get a lot out of that other people might not know about I am a huge evolution, junkie. The greatest show on earth. Why evolution is true I mean those books I think are so amazing to really understand like how you think through a problem. What evidence means how do you interpret evidence? What does it mean to have different disciplines lineup to get you the same answer that conciliates and convergence and how important those are in like trying to figure out what the objective truth is. It creates this framework for a rigor. Around, thinking about the world that I think I'm not sure you get so well from anything else and I will just consume huge book book-length thing evolution. What life's lessons have you learned? You wish you knew a lot earlier in your life so I would say that this comes from parenting. That getting mad. Blake. Any kinda yelling like All parents yell it doesn't do anything for you. It's kind of useless Kinda when you're on tilt. Yeah exactly. My. Youngest got in trouble for something and I know it's something that she's fifteen and it's something that with my first I would have been not over like what are you doing? You know just the whole nine yards and instead I just said, okay, you know. So I think you did this thing lying's GonNa make it worse. So just please tell me the truth and she did and I said Okay here's your consequence and then we just went on with our day and it was so much more pleasant. And I got a better result out of it like she got the consequence she wasn't allowed to do it. She understands why there was no reason for me to get a bluster about it, which wasn't GonNa create any good for anybody not for my emotional state for short. And I say all the time like you know I, wish I had really figured that out earlier I think as a parent and as a communicator, you feel like if someone does something wrong, they need to know how important it is and you need to let them know that this is wrong that has caused. And That's so much more about your own ego and wanting to be right and wanting them to know that you're right. It doesn't get you anywhere. All right. Last one where a few decades from now you are in your rocking chair counting your poker chips. You know what advice would you give yourself today? Everything so much like don't be so anxious about every little thing relax slow it all works out you don't need to be moving all the time. Yeah for sure I don't know how well I'll be taking that advice, but maybe if I do some good mental time travel. Are Getting. Old. Decrepit rocking, Cherry Yanni's tactic. Anne today. Then I can get a little bit out. Any, thank you so much for taking the time you for having me such a fun discussion. Thanks for listening to this episode I hope you found a nugget or two to take away and apply in your investing and your life. If you've liked what you've heard please review on itunes or Google play to help others find out about the show. Have a good one and see next time.

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Maybe shes born with it, maybe its the DD glow!

Wells Adams and Brandi Cyrus's show

52:03 min | 6 months ago

Maybe shes born with it, maybe its the DD glow!

"Me You look good. You got that deep Dicken Glow I. Think. It's so true. By the way I was watching your story and it's just like stories of rile making you coffee or making you've been. Doing some arts and crafts did you just bring them over to basically be your man bitch I mean I didn't ask him to just Kinda have been no he just he's the best because I don't really have to ask him for any of those things and like listen I'm not stupid. This is probably gonNA. Wear off a little bit. He's just like we're so thrilled to be together. He's being like extra service. But he is so good like he just makes me coffee without asking ever without me having to ask or he'll like clean the dishes without me having to ask he does it so great. I know if you're listening to this Ri-, need a pump, the brakes you're making all of us look like assholes. He is the best buy. So I have to be careful because he's so camera shy. If he knows I'm videoing him ill like clam up and he very definitely won't speak and he'll dislike freeze. So I have to be sleuth in video and when he's not paying attention is nice. Nice. Were you able to like watch anything or are you guys jaw sts make the entire day? We're like naked watching things like do both we did. We watched show when we start the show and I'll tell you about the show we watched. Yeah. Let's. Assert against you. Do Bros... Hose lose you're listening to your favorite thing podcast with and brand you? Really, quickly, I had someone message me and be like, Hey, I listened to your podcast and I'm so confused why do you guys ring bells? What's the bill really and I'm like? Sweet sweet precious person. Clearly, you're not listening. So for the new listeners out there, we ring a bell every time we say one of our favorite things, hence the name of the show. So. Whenever you hear this, it means that well, you're getting some favorite shit. Yeah exactly. Okay. So you guys have been naked watchin-. Some TV's will watching a little TV now. I'd say the I'd say the watching the TV is about five percent of what we're doing right now. Got It. Got It. Yeah. Yeah. But we did. So my mom actually recommended a showed me can't believe she loves Hilary Swank I think my God. That she's in Okay Chick flick hold on if you're GONNA do away I have like a whole thing on a way Elliott. Will, that's the show that I watched. Okay. Hold on. It, you have not seen PS I love you. You'd better fuck in get it together. It came out in two thousand seven, but it is A. Tear jerker or pass you should watch it his mom me mildly I. think even Noah like it's one faves like we have seen this movie eight zillion times and I'm not occur ir but it makes me tear up. It's so good. So we love Hilary Swank, 'cause we're big I. Love You fans. So my mom like was raving about away. It's just said I had to watch because Hilary Swank and she knows I love space. So I did what we did watch it. We finished the last night. You know what Hillary was also in a lot of things a lot of things but one of the things that she was in was the karate kid. And by the way I finished Cobra Kai season one and we'll get into it. I had this whole like I was going to go from Cobra Kai from Hilary Swank into away but since got this is the one thing then My literal one thing. But I don't know it seems like you're pretty pumped on away. Did you love it? So for whatever reason hilary swank follows me on instagram. She. Does. And? I walk we started watching away. We finished it and. No joke like? I was I wasn't really crying, but when it ended, I was like, no. I walk up there. And I- legit messaged Hilary Swank because I I know she falls me so I know she'd have to see it. And, like this is what I wrote to her. We finished away last night and I have to tell you I was honestly inconsolable when an ended, which was very true. Ask Sarah. And I said that show is so good. It made me cry a bunch sweater bunch and visually it was amazing anyways. I really loved it and I can't wait for season two. So then she wrote back. Hi. Thank you a like a happy face emoji means so much to me. Hope you to beauties are super well during these strange and uncertain times sending love and light heart and I was Li-. Hillary. Sh-. And then girling board. That's pretty cool. All anyways I honestly love the show but I'll let you go into it if you want. Well. Right I have mixed emotions about it. So here's my thing. Here's my thing. There's just so much space content and I just felt like this was not the best. I. Loved another life way more than I. Loved this one I thought they were very similar minus the SCIFI aspect of another life Sean Penn. Sean. Sean Penn's in one where they go to March. It's blonde girl with short hair and she's Jack. Yes she's from battle sugar lactic a Elma Blair's in it and another life know I'm talking about yeah and it's Katie's off the I loved that show and this felt very similar to me and I listen I like I ll visually it's amazing. My favorite part of the entire series was the scene where they're outside the settlement running for anybody, but they're outside the spaceship. And they're collecting watering I'm talking about loved that scene I thought it was sick and obviously like getting to watch any space show for me as I just love space. So I did I did like it I just felt like it got sleepy in the middle like the first couple of episodes were really great and last episode was Phanom and I loved the way it ended and it was like an almost took took getting to the finale of the of the season to get me hooked, which maybe is a genius thing. Now, do want to watch these in two, but it definitely lost me in the middle like there were some episodes I was basically sleeping through I couldn't really pay attention. And some of the story line I felt like lost me a bit but overall I did like it and I am pumped for. season. Two. The other thing about it, and again I, don't WanNa ruin it for anybody that hasn't seen it. It was a little like predictable in the sense of like by the end your leg of course worked out like this. I. Don't know like I would have just like for things to be a little bit more unexpected to the end of the season. Okay. Is that it? I did love it though I highly recommend definitely should what hilary swank is phenomenal her body. Fun Nominally held issue not gonNA. Okay. Everyone that just listen to what Brandy said don't listen to any because forty six manch looks good. Then show was so good and I'll tell you why that show is good. Okay. Every episode starts with a fucking problem. There's always a problem when space and also the stakes are so high for any television show or movie or any type of piece of entertainment or art there the stakes have to be high or else the viewer or listener or whatever doesn't have a dog in the fight. Right has no skin in the game every episode star, but there's a problem. So in the beginning of the episode, you know that they possibly die and obviously like going back to what you Were saying in terms of like it's predictable. Of course, they're not gonNA die they could not to ruin it for you. But like one of them at least the show can't continue Ritu itself if everyone fucking dies but unable to everyone does one or two well, okay. The stakes are always super high pay when you were talking about like doing the spacewalks are called E. V. as first of all, they do a couple of them. The first one that Hilary Swank does with the Russian that one rate is. Occurs Bro Spacewalk scenes are phenomenal. Yes. But I'll tell you what I really loved about the show. They do a really good job of character development every episode and they're kind of gets there like spotlight. And it's a little bit like lost. They focus it on one character and like go back in their time line as to like how the hell they became like this like how did you become this astronaut? What are all these issues that you had that led you to this point where you're going to fucking Mars these people why you distrust everyone like? What are your issues and I really liked that because it was interesting way of shining a light on these people because you want to show them going like they're going into space you know. So they had to do all these flashbacks as I really liked. Okay, and then all the storyline back at home is really good to with her husband like I love. Yeah he's Great. He's been in a lot of stuff he was in sports night was an old Aaron Sorkin show that I loved anyways he's a great actor and the daughter's really good like the whole thing is just really really good stakes are super high fucking visually really really stunning. A Hilary Swank is great. She obviously he's caring the whole thing but the Russian and I liked him a lot. He's so good and his storylines crazy. You know but they should he has to go through and then also the the guy from Ghana who is adopted by the Jewish family. I love so much and then also like I hated Asian chemist Dr. Liu Wang and I loved her when you find that like the bullshit that she has to go through by being from China and they're kind of putting the whole thing. anyways all to be said I really really enjoyed and also like when the show ended same thing that you were saying when the show ended I was like I cannot wait for season two. Yeah. Well, season to better be all about frigging Mars because I need to see more of that. You know what I'm saying yeah, I know okay real. Quick Spoiler Robin do something really really quick to sector brandy about it. So if you haven't seen this shown you WANNA, Watch it skip ahead thirty seconds to do this quickly three seconds what I thought was going to happen was can cookbook ahead and go okay. But I thought it was happened was they were going to land on Mars and just like the rocket that came beforehand that lost communication that they were to lose communication they were marooned on Mars you know, and then all of a sudden hillary got the hookup with the Indian guy because there's some sort of sexual tension. With the girl that's. Going to happen it did happen so. The hell happened. anyways. But I did too, I. kind of thought. It would have been a better cliffhanger if they had lost connection dough for sure for sure. Anyway. So just a little bit like come on. And all work out in tight nicely abode space. Yeah I know. Oh. Great Show highly recommend to go backwards now like Hillary was in karate kid too I think she was in and so Sarah and I watched Cobra, Kai and six, and so for those that don't know the chronic kid is rough macho. He's a kid from Jersey who moves to. The valley, in Los Angeles SPEC ninety four and he's getting picked on by this guy named Johnny and so he learns fucking karate from Mr. Miyagi. You guys know the story. So Cobra. Kai Takes Place Twenty five years down the road right johnny the sweep, the leg jetty. He is washed up unemployed kind of the pieces shit like still live in the glory days and Ralph Maggio or Dana Russo. He owns the car dealership. So he's doing really good in his life and Johnny's doing really bad at all kind of stems from that one fight that they had where Crotty kid wins right? If you're really not a fan of Eighty S. Or if you're gen zero and like younger, you might not love this because this show is throwback to eighties in so much as like how they shot it how it's written the jokes they use the music they use, and also kind of everyone's a bad actor like every eighty s movie ever and it is so good. It is phenomenally good so much so that when the first season ended I was. Saying with away Netflix's like all right. Let's go to season two and I was like there's no season two. It's go at all I haven't finished. He's in too but I will say it's really great. Basically, what happens is Zach Johnny the bad guy ends up teaching all the nerds in the valley how to do karate the story line is now completely switched and then Danny the root of the karate kid ends up teaching Johnny's son how to become a karate guy and then they fight role reversal and there's a love injuries. Obviously, they're still hatred but like respect between Johnny and Danny, I mean I gotta say man if you love nostalgic eighties cinema. Get on it. It's great and also kind of bad in the same way I'd never seen the karate kid. Never. It's great. I just blew your mind. You said, sorry I haven't seen it. Shout out to the wife tear they came in. So Clutch and sent me a message and fixed my Apple Watch problem member house why it's twenty twenty like wine can't the Apple Watch send a voice text. It can F- Way and thank you to the white here. The showed me how is it really easy? Oh, it's so easy like go into the so for those. Others dumb as me you go into the watch APP on your iphone where all the settings for your watch our and you can easily easily go to like the setting or whatever. That's and just switch it to. You can either allow voice text only or you can give yourself the option of text and actual texture a voice tax, which is what I did. So you say you're taxed and then you can either his audio or normal. Well, it's great. It's great. Speaking of life two years coming in heavy on the clutch that I'm halfway through this saviors champion and okay. So it's funny. Okay. We talked about it last episode. Someone's like you need to read the Savior's champion. It's hunger games but better and for adults which I would agree with basically the story line is if you listen the last episode, you kind of know the story with the storyline is a savior and she's kind of like the Queen of the realm or whatever the queen of the land all these guys get to like basically compete with one another through it's called the labyrinth and the last man standing gets to marry the savior and become the king basically. So I'm reading it and it's good. The main character the protagonist has got into bias. Like a heart of gold doing things for the right reasons similar to hunger games like he gets into the thing because he's like trying to save his family and like he doesn't really give a shit but he's trying to save his family and it's more. So his sister who's a paraplegic and he's trying to get money for doctors bill fix her back and Yada Yada. Yada, the story basically is all these guys. Like, the best dudes in the in like all four realms are going through what's called the labyrinth in the labyrinth it's almost like an Indiana Jones Shit. There's traps there's like booby traps. There are some guys that are in the that are in the game that are just fucking killing other guys just because they know that at the end of it, whoever's last gets to win known guests to meet or see the. Until like the first stage has been completed, and then they get to meet the savior and they all get to ask her one question and whoever asks the best question gets the first impression rose now and get to spend more time with there is another I mean it's on the first impression Rozewicz like wins like the first impression thing and then like it's similar to and I'm like, this is the fucking Bachelorette they ripped off this book yet it is the Bachelorette but with the stakes a little bit higher lots of show I'd. Only and what's even funnier kind of like the subplot is after every like stage of the labyrinth if you make it through, there are healers disrobed women that and he'll you because a lot of them are sliced open and broken bones and stuff. So these healers will come Tobias. Main character starts to Kinda feel some fields for one of the healers and not for the savior, which is a tale as old as time in the Bachelorette when won the contest and falls for producer? Boy I'm telling you. I'm telling you this shit. Whoever wrote this book has been watching the. And was like, you know what? Let's turn it up a little bit but I will say this it's really good. The fear that suggested it not wrong. It is very much hunger games the but for adults like they say bad words, they talk about topics you shouldn't talk about in NY novels and stuff. So anyways I haven't finished it yet, but I thought that was so funny I was like I'm just reading the Bachelorette right now like rated R. Data Lorette. Like if the Bachelorette was on not cinemax but skin amax. Okay, sound good. Honestly, yeah we started watching different show called glitch on Netflix. Have you heard of this now it's an Australian show and look it up. I. See it's a couple years old. The premise is really interesting and so I'm not sure if I'm like I'm fully bought in but I'm like what I'm seeing so far. So the tagline is six people returned from the dead with no memory and attempt to unveil what brought them to the grave in the first place. So like the first episode starts with all these people rising from the dead at A. Cemetery down in. Australia, like a cop gets called in and he's thinking it's a bunch of people on drugs fucking around the cemetery but there are like muddy and stuff, and he's like trying to wrangle them all in. He's like what is going on here? Like would you do calls in like the paramedic and so he starts like wrangling all these people that just appeared out of the ground. They start to figure out that like Oh, these people have been dead for years and now the back to life. The main twist is that the cops his wife had. Passed away a couple years ago from cancer she now is back. This is a tough thing for him because guess what he married her best friend typical but then there's also people that died from like back in the eighteen hundreds you know like the mayor of the town from like hundreds of years ago is also being brought back to life. So they're all trying to figure out why the hell they've been brought back to life at one point the cop tries to take one of them, pass the city lines and when that happens bad things happen they can't. Leave Ooh. So anyways, glitch I'm it's early but I'm like a lot. All right and it's got a really good rating on rotten tomatoes and stuff. So real quick thinking of Net flicks. Are we gonNA talk about the controversy that like working movie of Select Ten year olds? Yeah. The working documentary it's not really a documentary has lots of people like are you know they say they're boycotting Netflix's deleting it for a hot second trying to make a statement it's not a good look. I didn't even really know what it was about until today do follow Barstool Sports. I'd probably. And I realized that Barstool sports can come across as misogynistic because like also that's what it is. But this one guy that does the KFC podcast I've been on by the way he does this thing called the minute man, which is a phenomenal. He basically just like breaks down what the fucks happening in like a couple of minutes on instagram great fall and I was watching today and I was like Oh, this is what this is about had no idea and so yeah, Netflix's do better. Kanye, they do better I know I was just curious if he'd seen it even I don't know because I haven't just creepy dude. That's weird. I think when I thought it was the documentary it was like, okay. You know like we did we cheer and what's the other one dance moms and like okay this is what this is and then finding out it was cast like a Weird I'll tell you what I am going to watch by the time. The podcast comes added already have aired, but I am so pumped to watch kb on dancing with the stars. Yeah and I think you think the cast like extra good. This season I feel like she like garlic a great season Nellie can't we watch Nellie tried to dance. Also Carol Baskin is the fact that Carol Baskin is unidentified. The stars says so much about the entertainment culture we live in right now I know but like. Amazing and also if he doesn't do. CARE. Basket she has you know that the the dance of like yes. Past two. So I, like I like dancing with the stars a lot I've watched it here and there like I I. Think I've said before that, my dad was on the show like forever ago and it I started. And I loved it then. So I'm actually excited to watch every week this week. Now that I'm invested, not I've got a friend on the show. But I'm GonNa Watch that premiere tonight I gotta say like Caitlyn's been jockeying for this for a long time trying to make this happen we were talking about it. This season is so stacked because Caitlin is a dancer she's a good dancer. It's going to be tough for her to win this thing. I'd like a lot of are gonNA vote for Carol ended because it's insane Carol Baskin. But then there's also like actually there's a figure skater or like a gymnast there's. Like these are real against. Yeah. For sure that's going to be insane also not to switch topics so quickly, but does everyone out there know that California's on fire but not just California basically the entire West Coast and Colorado PSA like countries on fire wells can you tell us anything about what's going on right now there when you're living at the countries on fire know. It sucks like you walk outside and his and his it smoky like the air quality is as they say is so bad like you walk outside and notice that it's hard to breathe anything three days ago you'd walk outside and it was just hazy could smell it and it was just you couldn't see the the sun it looks like we're on the fucking surface of Mars every day the sun is just like bright orange weird like hazy. Yeah. It's bad at today's a little bit better but like knock right Freak, like do you go on run still or are you like it's so smoky I can't no. I don't go on runs anymore sucks. Suck, did you see this? Hundreds have gathered here in front of the county administration building calling for the end of mouth mandate saying they are tired of not living their normal lives. So, there is a known more masks rally. Utah didn't know that it gets better for action, Friday morning and Saint George Several police officers on standby as many locals called concerns about coronavirus spikes overblown. The flu kills more than Corona virus others. Glad. We're getting a sound bite from a four year old. Do better calling the virus, a hoax or sitting asymmetric carriers simply do not exist. Yes. They do and they cannot be forced to wear masks anywhere as citizens of the United States. If we want to wear a mask that's fine we can take care of ourselves some rally by the way that guy looks exactly like you think that that guy would look goatee holding an American. Flag wearing sunglasses that he definitely got at a pilot service center they shouldn't ever wear masks if they have any medical issues or mental health concerns or if they simply count breathe you all have mental health concerns. Thing, I can't breathe and then he died and we're wearing a mask and we say I can't breathe, but we're being forced to it anyway. So many are you fucking kidding me? That guy. On his neck at literally couldn't breathe but you can't breathe through a fucking piece of fabric because you've. been all chases now jeopardized kids health parents are demanding. They have the right to decide what to do with their children. I'll tell you another reason. I'd hate math most child molesters love school. What. To do with anything I mean. Seriously this is a SNL skin. They found the four year old. Whatever. The Fuck said that makes no sense more people will die of the flu well, no, they don't but science. And they've got the long guy who's carrying around the flag and then they got this lady who's making the point that has nothing. I'll tell you who loves masks child Molester. Most Molesters. Dies. Ancient. Oh my God. It's funny and it's not funny and terrifying but I watch it smells like maybe we deserve all this. Maybe we manifested this because we are just horrible species. Yeah. We are, do you want to hear the rest of it? Sure. Goldman. Responded that they don't understand why crowds are protesting them based on a mandate given by the governor they blocked off the front entrance to the school building and we went out ask them to move in the attempted to storm the school building the school board is implementing the governor's recent order. The facial alone are not enough, and if apparent is adamant that their child had not wear mouth or shield, they must fill out a form including doctors snow. So the district can review it and think George Corales ABC forenames. Guys. I. Just don't know. Anymore. I mean honestly I hate to say it. But I usually Tennessee's not too far away from this situation. Sure. Sure. were Tennessee is not they're not loving the masks I mean, oh, I've seen video lower Broadway party Razi. I'm just GonNa stay in my house like I have been I'm going to stay in our showing all I do. I can't leave my house because there is so much smoke. Out Say Yeah. Happier News I mean I assume you're pretty pumped about this whole Chris Evans fiasco. I saw I don't even I don't even know about it. You have to tell me because I saw somebody posts about it this morning and a winter click on the link and then something took my attention away. So please tell me what's going on we LE- accidentally posted something what do I Google Chris Evans? So. What happened was? I guess on his story, he posted like a picture of his penis pick of his photo gallery of all the pictures that he had and. That accident. I don't know and I guess that there was. A. Like black and white like artsy picture of a Dick in that. So. Effectively posted. Like a Dick, pic but in true Chris Evans Form It's artistic find. Taking up the Internet. The actor appeared to. Upload a photo of an erect penis. Do we not is that not known. But I can only assume it is right. Man You know. But I like how Smart Rough Lopresti teagan offer Chris Evans support after Penis Pick leak I mean the headline I'm a straight man even I wanna see what Chris Evans is packing. Right. He's so hot and then his brother. tweeted the next day I went off social media for a day. What did I? Miss. First of all Chris Evans, you shouldn't never never a picture your deck because that's out sound like it did. Never taken or limit, let's say someone else's Dick don't have other pick dicks in your library because then this could happen you're Chris Evans just show people your Dick in person. You know as long as find it as long as it's consensual and People Wanna see your Dick I can't I can't imagine how people not want to see Chris Evans, Dick, I mean it's captain. AMERICA'S COCK It's got to be beautiful. It's got. It's gotta be just perfect. Well, they're GONNA get of wiping it from the Internet because I can't find it. I mean come on it's Captain America Captain Mirrors Cocco Voice. Is kind of like Blake overt or something yeah. Well, that's fascinating. If anyone finds it, send it to me, please no, no, no, no no. Don't. Knelt for number one please don't be sending. Brandy. Dick. Pics. Yes the one. In and also no because okay. If there was one of Miley, you and want people continue to send that around. She would be encouraging people to send that around even know who you're talking about. Cyrus Miley does love a good Dick Pic. Fees. We just got back from like that little vacation in Palm Springs. It's really the only traveling that I've done this entire quarantine because the you know world's any. So we are around like my brother and his wife Sayers. Best. And her boyfriend, and so we're all sharing this airbnb in the desert who's kind of a smaller place. So we were kind of like sharing bathrooms and stuff and guess what everyone was just raven about. What's that Mike quipped brush they saw that mug hanging on the mirror and they're like, what is this amazing gadget now like Oh apparently, no one is listening to our podcast because we talk about quip all the freaking time. If you don't know about quip, Dude, get on it and here's the thing brandy. They've got a new toothbrush. It's like a Smart Electric toothbrush and we've seen this thing. I actually just thought the other day and I was like I have got to upgrade. I'm all about stuff that can next to my phone because it will help me track how often and how well I brush gives me tips and coaching to improve my brushing habits. I earn points for daily brushing and bonus points for completing challenges, and you get to redeem rewards like free products, gift cards, and discounts from quip, and their partners. This really is this modest frigging toothbrush I've ever seen and no worries. If you already have equipped toothbrush, you can upgrade with a smart motor and keep the features. You know and love talking sensitive sonic vibrations. Two minute timer with thirty seconds pulses for guaranteed, clean, slim, lightweight, and sleek with no wires nobody chargers to weigh you down and the multi use travel cover that doubles as a mere mount for less clutter. God. LOVES FROM QUIT PLUS also makes other products for your teeth that I'm a big fan of I love the watermelon toothpaste Ri- actually stolen other day asked if he could use it and because I'm nice I said yes. They also have loss eco-friendly solar battery charger to power your quip with the sunshine, which is great for the planet we. Love this company, we've been using it for a long time. So you guys got to check it out. Yep. Join over five million miles who used quip and save hundreds compared to other blue toothbrushes. When you get a quick smart brush for just forty five bucks starting right now go to get quip dot com slash y. f. t. right now and you'll get your first refill fo- free start getting rewards and that to your I refill create get quip dot com slash Y. T. Spelled G. E. T. Q. U. IP dot com slash y f t clip better oral health made simple Andrew awarding. Broke it. All right guys it is just about around the corner until it's my favorite season of the year fall, which means time to shop for a whole new fall wardrobe and I've been checking out the new products at one of my favorite companies Rossi, they make stylish. Shoes and bags made relief on the go. It's carefully crafted stuff with ECO friendly materials like re purposed plastic water bottles and marina plastic note not only are you guys getting super cute shoes and bags you are helping save the planet by using recycled stuff and wearing sustainable products yet they're incredibly comfortable with zero break in period. Thanks their seamlessly knit to shape design with many chic styles choose from Rathi, shoes for the perfect pair for every adventure. Dude. My favorite rotties are the slip bonds because I just go up and down to the barn. So many times during the day that I love having shoes by the door, I can just slip on and not to mention their super easy. To take, care of their fully machine washable. So every time they need a refresh, you just toss them in the washing machine and they come out looking brand new I. Love that rotties is using recycled materials. They have kept over sixty million single use plastic bottles out of landfills and transform them into their signature thread, and the is beautiful. It really makes for great products. You guys got to check this out. They've got amazing shoes and bags available right now at rockies dot com slash f. t that's Rossi's dot com who are ot H. Y. S. dot com slash Y. F. T. Style and sustainability meet to create your new favorites had to write these dot com slash Y. F. T. Today. We watched a movie there night. That was absolutely phenomenal. Really have you heard of love wedding repeat we're flipping through Ryan I were having. Differing opinions on what to watch the other night. And I passed that one and I wanted to watch it and he was like now. Yeah, Love Wedding repeat is so good and here's the thing I'm the same way. I don't know why because every ROM com that sears maybe watch him like I. Liked it. It was good. But this on. So good. Okay. Do you remember Hal amazing for weddings and funeral was? Yes. I. Mean it's such a good rom com but it's really just like this British dark humor you know it's just sardonic and just so fucking funny and that's what this this is like this year's four weddings and a funeral. Okay. While trying to make his sister's wedding day goes smoothly Jack Finds himself juggling an angry ex girlfriend, an uninvited guests the secret misplaced sheep sensitive. And the girl that got away in alternate versions of the same day it is so great Sam. Claflin. Love. Hand he was in Hunger Games He's great. He's the lead. Can and so his sister's getting married, they're all British and assistance to be married to this Italian guy is in Italy. It's like beautiful. So his sister was best friends with Livia months character and while they were like studying abroad Sam's character Jack kind of fell in love with Livia months character Dina years ago things happened where they couldn't hook up. So this is opportunity to rekindle things with Livia months character. but he sat at the table next to his ex girlfriend. WHO's is it Frida Pinto? She's the girl that was slumdog millionaire really pretty Indian woman. So she's sitting next to her. And she's got her own issues going on the sister's getting married like the ex boyfriend has ruined the fucking wedding and it's like this poor guy is trying to like smooth everything out and also trying to have a nice time and it's just the best writing. It's so funny. The twist of the end is great like all of it is just so good. Okay. I'm GonNa make rilot that with me I really think you'll enjoy it. I. Loved Cats Absolutely. Loved it. mazing quiz talk about how fucking horrible Mango Salsa is why people are continuing to try to feed it to us. I'm sorry I love Mango Salsa hot. Take other century brand new legs dateable. WHO HAVE COME In my fridge as the speak why I put it on top of my Veggie Tacos this week and it was bombed on. God Salsa should not be. Sugary and sweet it should be subtlety. Sweet It's the little sweet with a little kick. No. Bomb if don't ever invite me over and have mango salsa hanging out. I will I will. Slap it straight down with carpet. Live. On the complete other side of the country as me so. Not Doing it. I'm in the fancy football league with like every. Bachelor. Motherfucker in the world. Do this every year do you on? We got some new. We've got some new guys you on WHO's in it. Who are the newbies? Okay. So first of all, the the League is called the fantasy suite, which of course, that's pretty funny. It's pretty good. You Got Yours truly got cameron. You got nick vile you have cold and Underwood, which wo what is happening over there. Talking about that to circle. Back Circle. Back we've got Matt James who by the way he's going to be the new bachelor he was in the league last year and no one fucking knew who he was. We just needed an extra person and so like my friend Matt wants to do it and we're like, okay, whatever and the entire season we're like who the fuck is this guy and now he's the bachelor. World you got. You Got Chris Harrison you got dini babies got Tanner Tolbert got jared Haida on. You've got Ben Higgins Chris ran down and you got Jason. Kartik. Grocery, Bitch Joe and the be Bowel Bob Oh bok which by the way. So. bitching how it says that Sarah's spouse or partner was Joe Mobley I. Think I said it at that time. So then Google fixed it and then it went back relying no no no. Like, but then it changed back. So there's no one else there and also look good on you I guess like fucking no one's got anything going on. So it's kind of funny but like there's someone out there, who's like, nope, it's got to be Joe. We got back. I. Just saw a lot of people come out and be like well, you're an idiot it says Sarah is engaged with you like what the hell are you talking about? It made made you'll get a big fat liar switched it so fast. Yeah. Then is green grab vets that I had put people on blast Okay Circle Back Okay Yeah Asi is suing or not suing, but like restraining order restraining, order this restraining order happening. Yeah. What the heck out of me I don't know. All I know is what I read something about like putting a tracking device on a car. CONES in Colorado. Yeah but anyways, yeah. Like he's in cold in our fancy league and I want to be like, Hey, dude, what's going on? Also. Do you want? Do you want to Trade Julian Edelman to me? which ones really more important to you. In, the league anymore. I. Don't know either by the way I've been higgins the sweetest guy in the world kick my ass this week in fantasy. So that's that speaking of football which I really know nothing about except for the fact that a friend of mine is dating a football player so I don't know if any of you guys follow. Camille. Cossack. She is dating Rob Gronkowski do Paul Hurdles Wells. No but I know Rob Gronkowski. So she posted they shot I guess it was like an instagram. Ad But it looks like full-on commercial for a Product. Called like manscaping or something that's like a manscaping shaver and it is the funniest thing I have ever seen. I am obsessed with them. They are a couple goals I just love how much they like poke fun at themselves and just like they will do they'll do whatever and just as just. So funny to me I think they're the cutest thing in the world and I love that commercial I thought it was funny. So if you don't follow them, go check out meals instagram and watch that ad 'cause it's funny as hell. Have you seen my balls. Route KFI in his balls. There behind your overgrown shaggy. Bush my love. Bushy. I can't see them help. If you're bushes overgrown, it's time to trim your hedge funds lawnmower. Order Your lawnmower now at meals an ad for them we're not GONNA pay for this is pretty funny. How do you know her I? Just have mutual friends with rob I guess and then they stayed at my house during stage coach last year. And I became friends. She's so sweet but I just love how hard they lean into the cheesiness like even the music behind it like it's just cheesy as hell but like that is an instagram ad that works that that is like instagram at goals. Yeah. Well, some production puppy and so funny to me. I want to ask you I actually I bet you haven't watched this on comedy but So recently, Sarah Sarah had never watched parks and REC before or. Or. She had like scenic besides but she seen it all the way through and I was like you've got to watch in all the way through. So she went and watched the entire thing all the way through and absolutely loved it. It's amazing and now she's on the office I. Guess The question is is what he got office or Parkson Wreck. Office for me I love the office I. Think That's what I would have said before we started this little thing but parks and rec seems to be holding up a little harder than the office right now what do you mean? Well, Michael Scott, I think in like the early two thousands him being like misogynistic and stuff was funny and now it's like the. Can't. Kinda creepy I could see that not as cool as it. This is a hot take, but Steve Carell was not like he was not the highlight of that series for me like, yeah his character was funny. But like that was not what kept me watching the office? It was all the other characters I feel who's your favorite character the office obviously Jim and Pam well right. But like I feel I feel like. That I, mean it was just cast. So well, I feel like all the other Dwight, are you freaking kidding me freaking hilarious blonde girl. Angela Love Angela, there's just so many great members of that cast. Yes girls funnier whatever. But he was not the highlight of that series for me at all. So my favorite was creed I think creed was the fucking hilarious funniest because he's done a lot of airtime when he does it's like home runs but for parks and REC, who's your who's your guy or girl? I didn't want enough of it to have a guy or girl I've literally only seemed like maybe three episodes here and there. Yeah. I used to leave it on for feather to watch like when I leave the house. So Bronze Swanson Is. Just the greatest character ever. He's so good. Use Fogel go and then also Ben Schwartz character is so bucking good don't suspicious don't be suspicious don't don't respect. speaking of singing. Do you got any music's I? Should've plugged this earlier. Because it's been out for a few weeks but my baby brother brazen has a new song out called glass between us I brazen so much because he really like. His sound is so different like we all do music and a sense and whatever and brazen has just really blazed his own path and like has his very own unique style and I love it so much just fits him. So well, he's a cutie pie on the album cover. I like that. Because it's different for him. He's putting out another song next week. That's more of his usual. Full key blue grassy sounding stuff says that I liked because it was very cinematic sounding something I would listen to in the car of the`real yet exactly which I love stuff like that. So I like hearing his voice on that a lot keep an eye on brazen. He's about to put a lot more new music and he's been in the studio working really hard. So had to give a shout out. Will I saw that of monsters and men have some new stuff out and I mean right loves them love them to. This is a song called visitor. I listen. I. Checked. Like that a great, and then I did see that PECs guts most. Likely. Because it's To. Way. To. Produce something. I. Do have one more actually. What are you got? It's not super new I think amount over the summer but it's it's funny I'm not really the big Chelsea Color van but she does a lot of collapse with artists that I really love and then I end up liking that song a lot I think she just what we say she with the bank not long ago she's got a song with Noah Kahan they have a song together called crazier things like a lot. Harder. Hardest been trying. coast. ttrij. To pass my crossing Ken crazier things. You love. Noah's voice. Don't you? Yes I do. Yeah. That's the most brandy sounding. Vocal I've ever heard sounds like much of his mouth he's saying Ze. Yeah Yeah, are you cool come up to know about is the Bible you I've been horseshoe for two weeks. That's why been a little bit off the grid. So like the Combo of horror showing plus rioting here against it's been a whirlwind of the past couple weeks. So if anybody out, there is a horse person and knows what I'm talking about. So I have this. New Horrors you know I got her in March and young and really green, and so we started showing we did a couple of weeks in June and just took her to see kind of what we what we had and just jumped around really small and We've been working really really hard since then and so this past two weeks we started week one just popping around. The meter jumpers, which is just tiny little three foot jumps or whatever hoping to make it around crashed through a jumper to just trying to get her to do things correctly and put the right strides in the lines, and by the end of week to she was cruising around the high adults with clean rounds and fast rounds, and we really ended on a high note. So I had a lot of fun horse showing and having right there to help me and cheer me on was so fun a negative couple weeks off and then I go back for two more weeks in October. So that's been keeping me really busy and it's funny I don't don't post a lot of my like competition horse content just because I feel like I. I don't know most of my followers. That's not why they follow me. You know it's. Just. Annoy people with my horse stuff but then when I do post about it, I have all these horse girls come out of the woodwork and say post more postwar WanNa see more of your writing and stuff. So I'M GONNA try to post more about that now that I have right here to take videos and photos of me on my horses. I understood none of the words you said like clean hydrating nine. What does this horse's name? Well, I call her star but her schone MS starpower. Well, it's like Oh yeah. and. She's crazy. So if you watched my story today, if you watch the days ago, if you're listening now my posted, if you photos at the horseshoe photographer took and she jumped she just as this horses nuts like she jumps everything a foot over what it really is. So if I'm jumping meter ten, she jumps like it's meter twenty-five it's just absolute crazy. She's so insane but she's such an incredible athlete. She's by far the most talented horse. I've ever owned some really excited to keep putting in the hard work and seeing how we end by the end of October I love I love a horse that goes meter twenty, four beaten you know just. So? Crazy beast. My Mom's insane. So like the the highest level of competition here in the states, it's they call it the Grand Prix in its meat usually meter forty, meter forty, five, I think occasionally you'll see meter fifty over here but but it's like the big time like all the professionals right and my mom called me and she was like, when do we get to go to the? Grand Prix. And I'm like we're a ways away from that mother she's like I'll pay for it like can we go and I'm like, yeah, you don't WanNa pay for any of the costs it takes to get there. You just want to do the the big thing, the big money class insane but but maybe someday, we'll get to do that and my mom can come me on and pay for it. Yeah. That'd be nice dish. When Nice. That'd be nice. Her well I don't know tell you other than. I'm going to I'm going to. Go outside and just breathing like three packs of cigarettes. I'M GONNA, go make a runner watch the calm that you recommended should. And by the way I'm not really gonNA smoke cigarettes. I'm. GonNa. because there's smoke outside. I'm John batchelor. At Joe Bareback. All right. Well. I hope the world doesn't end before next week. Just got good for me. Good nut through. Their the bell. soleus afraid.

Hilary Swank Sarah Sarah Chris Evans Netflix karate Dick Pic Carol Baskin Noah Kahan hillary Zach Johnny Tennessee Rob Gronkowski Sean Penn flu Colorado Ri Cobra Kai League Elliott
Who Cares What Science Says? Chris Volpe on Why Some of Us Care and Some Don't

Clear+Vivid with Alan Alda

35:44 min | 1 year ago

Who Cares What Science Says? Chris Volpe on Why Some of Us Care and Some Don't

"I'm alan alda and this is clear and vivid conversations about connecting and communicating the first thing we found through studies was that the words people use when you talk about science or very positive words words like curiosity discovery optimism youth and then looking a little more deeply and how people talk about it <hes> it became very clear something fascinating it was going on there that that for most americans they equate the word science with hope in the last hundred years something has changed our lives run on science now and there's no going back the food the information mation we consume the medications we take. They all depend on science to reach us and to get to a set of price we can afford. We want a pill or a discovery that will allow us to live and we not only wanted. We expected even our money. There's a generation among us. That doesn't carry cash just a little piece of plastic that gets them everywhere. Do we realized realized how dependent we are on science. We understand what might happen to us. If science suddenly stops or slows to a trickle chris volpi wants to know how we feel title about science. It's an important question and it's one that needs a good answer of science is going to survive chris. I'm really glad to be talking to you today because i think about this all the time the relationship between our culture and science and it disturbs me a little bit funding is down for science. Specially basic research vaccinations are down measles is up the the climate crisis is just a joke to a lotta people. What's what's missing. What do we have to do well alex. It's terrific perfect to be here. Thank you <hes> there's a question whether the challenges a breakdown between society and science or is it a science a collateral federal damage to larger question and that is issue of <hes> of of society and questioned the institutions just a fundamental growth in cynicism by american humane. All all institutions tend to get questioned and downgraded and everyone's mind yeah and this. There's actually a lot of data to this and so for example. If you're in the media you're a journalist. You really not happy right now. Because in the last thirty years trust and journalists dropped precipitously trust in banks and financial national institutions has dropped precipitously. Let me go back for a second. You're engaged in a project called science county running it. What what are you trying trying to find out which it's basically research to start with right. What's your overall plan for. Science counts right so so science council was created needed to bolster public support and awareness of science okay <hes> and <hes> it became evident very quickly that that actually nice to narrow a gold that there are bigger things going on and so our research is to try to answer even bigger questions in terms of you know where does science. It's live in the psyche of ordinary americans <hes>. If i yell the word science on a crowded bus would it people think will try to get they might or they. They might lean in and listen. Tell me more <hes> <hes> you know and more importantly what do people feel. <hes> you know what do they sense some very fundamental questions. And what kind of answers did you get to those questions as a really interesting and it was <hes> it was a surprising jarring to some folks <hes> the the first thing we found through studies was that the words people use when you talk about science or very positive words words like curiosity discovery discovery optimism youth and then looking a little more deeply and how people talk about it <hes> it became very clear something fascinating. It was going on there that that for most americans they equate the word science with hope. How did they get to hope right. So what we did was we did this was part of a national little survey and then also focus groups where you bring small groups of people in you have to have conversations and over and over again phrases like science serves the greater. Oh good or <hes> you know sciences a path to a better tomorrow kept coming to the surface and so it became very clear that for the people we were talking to science was coupled to some desired outcome very payoff oriented show you you interpreted that as hope that's right and then we fed back. We asked him yes. That's the word that's it. That's exactly what i'm trying to catch yeah yeah show scientists and their work or associated with the word hope what you learn from that what do you what do you do about that. How do you advance the mission of your your organization. Science counts. I am part scientists and i'm part marketer <hes> and so from in essence for the brand of science to be hope is wonderful. You couldn't pay enough if mike that's a great place to be. We should be excited as scientists and science advocate that the public look to science as delivering delivering on <hes> wonderful things and making the world a better place <hes> the question is how deactivate that how do you make that sort of an abstract ideal to a real idea at to an idea what people can actually express that get involved. It's one thing to sit in your living room and say boy. I hope those scientists you know cure this or do that or discover this <hes> i think think we're at point culturally where we need people to stand up a little bit more <hes> and and and expressed that's a priority. It's not just something they like but it's a prior one of the problems that's been expressed many times which is basic research research into the true unknown where we don't know what we're finding out basic basic things about how nature works it doesn't pay off with practical application sometimes for a hundred years sometimes longer <hes> einstein's work mark hundred years ago enabled us to have cheap e._s. in our phones in our pockets. Nobody knew that at the time and if his was a big project object <hes> would it have got funding because one hundred years later you've able to do something. They didn't even know you needed so isn't that a difficult situation nation in trying to get exploratory curiosity driven science funded. How do you do it. How do you go about it. How do you how do you use lose hope to do that. Fortunately people seem to be willing to give us the scientific community along leash partially because what you said because to some degree curiosity is good enough. Discovery is good enough. <hes> one of the challenges that we found is not that that <hes> a lot of americans eric instinct that the government shouldn't fund or participate in science <hes> but the the miss assumption that the role that that the government that we as taxpayers play is very minor. We found that only one out of four americans thinks that the role of government in science is necessary has a pervasive. Where did they think it comes from. Google apple elon musk yeah so in other words if science is really worth in some people's minds or many people's minds if science is really something that we can regard is helpful and useful then it'll be making a profit and supporting itself self in many areas and and that in fact the census that's what's going on today that most of the scientific research even basic research is being done by big corporations and philanthropies and elon musk man. That's the name came up a lot of that's interesting. The the problem is it's not reality. The problem is that the taxpayer favorable government supports about fifty percent of all the basic research the the u._s. So there's a fundamental misunderstanding standing in terms of what's the tail and what's the dog mini comes to do in this before we get to the question question of what you're gonna do with all this research. Tell me more about what you found out about. How scientists regard their role in this one of the things that we discovered was that it seems that scientists are sort of two camps when it comes to how they connect personally with science about a third the scientists were comfortable with using using the word hope and then about a third of the scientists said joy and excitement yet will. I can understand that because they're doing something that they love. That's right the question. Though is if the public sort of gathered around hope is more payoff a call it payoff oriented yeah <hes> and a large fraction of scientists are more process oriented which is what i would say love what they do you <hes> well. They're doing it exactly because their self selected group is really has to do is all over again. When i know you proposal the time and we do too knowing your audience knowing what they care about whatever it is and finding how what we do fits in with what they care about but there's a very interesting one of the most startling things i've heard come out of your research his the opposite of what we all. I think an awful lot of tend to believe which is the more people know about science the more willing they are to accept some of the findings things of science. I may not be putting it the way you put it. How would you say yeah that's an absolute phenomenon and and <hes> we've touched on it and then there's some other work that's been done by others. I think really drove it home. One researcher in particular yale dan kahan <hes> and his and his group <hes> they found something really fascinating and it really turned everything on its head in the scientific community and that was you know the the the idea what we call the science deficit model in other words. Let's take climate change for example. The reason that forty percent or so of the population is having a hard time acknowledging that climate change anthropogenic climate change is what's happening is because they just don't know enough about the signs and so the solution would be if we could only teach them more science. We could only turn them into us. They would reach the same conclusion an- so dan and his team did a really neat survey and they tested this not just climate change it looked at multiple issues and in a nutshell what they found found was that when you're talking about non controversial issues like for example if there's more sunlight trees will grow taller then it is true the more you know about the science the more you will agree with that statement when it comes to these issues that we controversial climate change. G._m._o.'s vaccinations nations in fact it doesn't work that way at all. It seems that people reach a conclusion first and then they used their science knowledge to defend that a position to the point in which those who knew the most science were most polarized so by knowing more science you had people on each end of the the the issue not agreeing more but actually diverging more than sounds like they were using their knowledge of science to defend a position they knew was correct. So how do you handle it in the conversation. That's a difficult conversation to have. You have one set of ideas. They have a whole other said did not sound like you're threatening their lives. You have to try to not threaten their life. You have to try to find common and ground even if it's teeny and miniscule i mean you know you've got to do it on a personal level and assess the take home point way ahead. Can you remember one conversation asian where you started kind of far apart and got a little closer will one. Can you track that for me sure so i'll i'll pick on climate. Let me see c._f. So i have a neighbor who is wonderful. At articulating his point. I wish i had his gift for communication and his talking about sea level rise and he summed it up his position by saying <hes> i will believe in sea level rise when all those rich liberals liberals start selling their beachfront stumped. I respond that there's a lot of those rich. Liberals already have a house up on a hill there. You go those two. That's right colorado's kenny expensive and so i think part it was not slapping back right away when he said that and sort of letting that get out there and then you know beginning to talk about it and you know identifying that the fact there are a lot of people who aren't rich liberals on coastal areas who are threatened in southern florida coastal <hes> virginia maryland and at least with this one one individual where i think we started getting a little bit of modification. Both of us was the idea of prudence. Maybe we're sure maybe be. We're not sure maybe we can agree that. We're not one hundred percent shore <hes> but isn't the prudent thing to do to <hes> keep studying and learning but to the extent that we can you know begin begin to to prepare may be beginning to scale back be more careful when we come back. Chris volpe gives me some good news about what science counts research has discovered about the public's exc trust in science and the growing eagerness of a younger generation scientists to share their work with the rest of us. The today show is sponsored in part by the alan alda center for communicating science and we do workshops all over the world to improve communication in stem and medicine and there's nothing like a good testimonial michael turner research theoretical cosmologists who coined the term dark energy. Here's what he had to say about the oldest center workshop he attended. It's been fantastic. I had incredibly credibly high expectations and they've been exceeded. I thought it was pretty good at communicating and i learned a bunch of new ways to communicate. I found wear ear where armstrong where we how do i how i improve that so <hes> without any hesitation i would say this is well worth doing check us out at all the center dot dot org fishes clear and vivid and now back to my conversation with chris volpi and what he calls my tree in dollar question. How do you communicate with people who are so far apart from where you might be if you say something something that threatens their view of liberty or their view of what it means to be a citizen in this country you know hitting them at home not even close homage at its wouldn't part of their identity when you attack. Somebody's identity is very hard for them to trust you. Why would you do about that. That's the trillion dollar question i mean. That's what the field is trying to grapple with. I'm going to give you a short just short answer because i don't have a good answer. It's part of why i have a day job is to try to figure this out but word that i think is missing from our field is word grace. We sometimes a science scientists. Sts and may maybe some science communicators but i think science communicators do a better job. We don't proceed as gracefully in a sensitively as we should because we don't recognize that we're really as you said. Potentially attacking people's core values the reasons for being if i say you're wrong about this issue <hes> i'm not really saying you're wrong about that. Scientific issue what i'm really saying is you're wrong about caring about that thing. <hes> that is not really about your your your view is wrong your your your entire outlook is wrong when in fact the essence of an empathic approach approach is what you were describing find out where they really are what really matters to them and can you agree with what really matters to them this whole notion in of trust seems to me to be really important and and when you describe the public's reaction to science as being in one of conscious hope i think of how often i hear from people who are impatient with science because science science can't make up its mind. They say i tell you wine is good for you then they tell you it's bad for you then. They tell you a year later. It's good for you again. Coffee same thing coffee will cure. You're all kinds of diseases. Caffeine is good. No wait a minute the stuff that's not so good and coffee. Don't take it so much so if they think science can't make up his mind because because they don't practice science they don't realize science is not in the job of giving you the absolute answer about anything but to keep keep making progress and understanding how the complexity of nature fits all its parts together. My guess is you'll never get the total final answer to for that but that adventure spins off so much good to the rest of us that we can call it hopeful but there's this impatience inch and lack of trust that comes with unfamiliarity with the scientific prices. What can we do about that yeah so so the great news is that the public broadly really trust scientists back there one of the few groups of professionals that trust has eroded over the last thirty years in an and over thirty years is not my organization as pew research and the national research <hes> board have studied that for thirty years so that's great news that is as good news but it reminds me of the idea that i've heard from some scientists not nine an awful lot. I think a lot of scientists see the advantage in communicating well with the public but i've heard from some scientists. That's not my job. I've heard my job is to do the science to get results. Not sell the results. Anybody just let everybody know what the results were. Let them make up their own minds. Lead science. Take could take it to the next step. Do you see much resistance to u. C. p. scientists his resisting the idea that they're being asked to convince people have their science when they feel in fact their job is to present the the data which ought to convince people on its own. I mean there is a valid idea that if you add selling pressures to are your data you might be doing science a disservice certainly the word cell is insensitive word but in the survey we just did with the all the center it was clear hear that scientists want to share their work yeah yeah <hes> and <hes> i mean to the point which i would say the scientists who sort of want the door shut and selenium <hes> curmudgeon. Let me do my work. That's what i'm doing and you know i published the paper and let other people read it <hes> they're in the minority and and it certainly in the minority the younger generation students and postdoctoral researchers an assistant professors has tremendous energy for wanting to get out there and and share the results <hes> and that's great news. I would say personally that if a scientist doesn't want to engage with the public if they're independently wealthy and funding their own research you know that's their prerogative but view there's a social contract here if you are receiving federal funds and the vast majority of scientists due in part or in whole i really do think that one of the culture changes that has to happen within the scientific community and i and i'm not alone. I'm not the originator of this but i'm on the bandwagon is that you know we. There's a social contract. We have obligation to talk to the public public not necessarily to sell them on anything per se or or to take them to change their minds but just share what's going on <hes> where you know this. This is a valuable <hes> exercise as valuable endeavor and in and when you include listening in that having a conversation with the public not just telling them in a one way street kind of way but actually hearing their reaction that can actually be beneficial not only to the public but the science itself it seems to me. There are efforts now that i'm aware of that. I think a really interesting and really <hes> doing something. Along those lines where research surged scientists are in contact with people in the doctor's office makes use of the research that's done and the products it it produces and then they get together with the community and all three of them talk about what the real effect effect on humans is of all this work and what their response to it is what they need what they were hoping for what what how whether they're satisfied or dissatisfied satisfied and even just giving them data that they wouldn't get if they just stayed in their own imaginations but get real human responses. That's that's an example. I think of listening to the public and their mom sure many other examples i think it's critical and <hes> one of the worst insults i was ever handed when i was graduating and was a scientist was i had someone an entrepreneur. Tell me that he thought what i was a natural marketer and i was deeply offended by that. I so that marketing is like selling. It's a loaded word well. That's how i interpreted it. The whole point of being scientists was i didn't want to at the time soiled myself which such trivial and so how do you see marketing now now that you don't feel so so it took me about five years to figure figure it out because after i graduated i went into it became a little bit of an entrepreneur so i had the school of hard knocks and i realized what he was saying. <hes> you you know marketing for most people marketing is synonymous with advertising and that's only a thin little sliver of marketing. The full marketing is a life cycle and it goes like this first step one observe and listen step to assess need step three come come up with the service or product to address that need created step four deliver it and step five live see how it went go back to the beginning now. It's the scientists. That sounds really familiar to me. <hes> kind of observe come up with an idea to an experiment meant and then go back to the beginning sounds like the scientific method. It's very synonymous and i think to your point that first step is not thinking or doing it's listening and observing and that's something i think we could capture <hes> and i know the marketing is a is a loaded word certainly in science and if the changing the word is up it might be a smart idea. I listen observe and assess is probably good enough so now let me get back back to my question. I asked you a while back after you've completed the research that you've embarked on where you're figuring out how the public regards science and how science regards the public and and so on do you have an end game in mind. You have a plan to do something to help. Help remedy the the disproportionate relationship the poor relationship that still exists in terms of science and the public how do we how do we bring them together. How do we get them to share a common view of science that benefit science and benefits to people both so i'm a put the burden on scientists i just as the experts in that relationship and that is <hes> as much as one wants to talk about the details and the process is. I said you've got to start with the benefit. You've got to start with the outcome. You've gotta give some textual <hes> explanation. Why should this doesn't matter to me and so those first couple of sentences <hes> need to be. Here's why this matters to you or here's why you should care and very often if you do that atwell. It's been my observation that you're the person you're talking to is actually going to ask you to get into more details. They'll prompt you to have that conversation and so it's not as much one way. It's more of a dialogue on a conversation. There's something else that occurs to me that i wonder if you take into account. There's something communicated by the way the scientists is lit up illuminated by the excitement of the work this amazing thing thing. I discovered about this little worm. It's it's so tiny you can't you can't see it without a microscope and yet some of the secret of longevity is in this worm aw that's fascinating that affect that attitude that can be expressed sometimes better by some people than others others but all of us can learn to express what we feel about the things that mean a lot to us like the thrill of discovery that is not an argument. It's not words. It's you being able to observe in me. What gets me going and you. It might be contagious to you. Is there a way to discover how effective that is. Can you research <hes> you can <hes>. I'm willing to take it for granted. I mean i think enthusiasm is infectious. That is a big big part. Take advantage frankly that the scientists have <hes> because most scientists are very excited about what they do and they're. They're excited excited to share <hes> an and that's the okay the there's an old saying this is going back to that dirty word marketing again but it's so fundamental and i know it's core to the to the <hes> to what the the all the center does <hes> human beings were not thinking beings that feel we are feeling beings think oh ooh and too often the word emotion is sort of a sacrilege word among scientists certainly physical sciences natural sciences social scientists are much more comfortable with fat and then we in a way they have a leg up in terms of bridging the gap between themselves in the public and so i think you know we all we have to recognize the emotional title content of any conversation and to the extent that it's positive ride it. That's how you connect with people will to that. I would say amen let me <hes> let me close conversation by ask your seven questions you know but this we ask ask everybody the seven questions and they're not threatening for doug don't look so scared but they invite seven quick inches roughly about communicating and relating okay i know what do you wish you really understood. <hes> i wish i knew more about. I wish i knew more about mathematics six and i wish i appreciated mathematics arithmetic but the higher mathematics from a language point of view <hes> shared that with you. What do you wish other people understood about you so i struggle with the english language and the tragedy is the only language i speak so <hes> i i and that's a genetic thing it runs on my father's side of the family <hes> and we're hoping that gene eventually dilutes out and a couple more generations but sometimes words the right where it doesn't quite come out and so sometimes i what is this a condition with the name i have. I have face blindness. Do you have a name for what you've got there. I don't i i haven't and headed diagnosis. I figured one way or another. I'm stuck with that so why pay a doctor very interesting well. That's not a short answer but it was interesting. Thank you so next question and what's the strangest question. Anyone has ever asked you so. This one's a guilty pleasure. The strangest question was a <hes> son. Are you making chlorine again and i would. I feel like i'm obliged to provide background so i was a chemist and i learned a lot plot it in high school in my in my parents basement fiddling around and for a reason i can't remember i wanted to make chlorine gas which is not a particularly good substance had be careful and <hes> i accidentally made too much and <hes> ended up with a face full of chlorine gas which i can tell you is not very pleasant. I don't recommend they basically burns your skin. It's very corrosive you're asked are you producing this again. Why would you make it the second time <hes> yeah well so i guess i filled the the ventilation system of my parents house with us and my father who was a chemist also was watching i think the team and instead of getting up and seeing what he just yelled chlorine again and i i grew up with the addams family so i felt that that was our addams family moment. I felt like all right we will. I hope we have just put a <unk> spike in the heart of science fabulous antic next question. How do you stop a compulsive talker. <hes> um so i would say. I don't have a proven method but i would say if you're in a room where you've identified another compulsive talker. Maybe try to match. That's that's good. I haven't heard that one before that's when i'll stop that with that one. I think that's probably the best shot. Is there anyone for whom you just can't feel feel empathy. Yes absolutely <hes> it is <hes> is a human weakness boy people who cut line that just gives. You don't care what's going through their mind. You can usually tell if it's genuine emergency and for that. I'm forgetting but there's some folks who just play by a different set of rules awesome. That's just that bothers my sense of civilization and order. How do you liked to deliver bad news. In person on the phone or by carrier pigeon uh-huh well like would be as far away as possible. I think but this is one of those questions where the right thing to do is usually the hard thing to do a lesson. I learned as a child so i wouldn't like but i would probably do it in person just because being the hardest thing to do it probably is the right thing to k- last question what if anything would make you into friendship i was thinking words dishonesty and selfishness if you determine if you find find out that you're being taken advantage of <hes> and you realize there's no friendship than it's there's nothing to end. Just walk away while don't walk away from our conversation sation without my thanking. You and i hope that we continue to pay dish friendship that starting. Thanks for coming in talking with me. Thank you allen. This has been clear and vivid. At least they hoped so my thanks to the sponsors of this episode all the income from the ads you here go to the center for communicating science at stony brook university. I should've just by listening to this podcast. You're contributing to the better communication of science so thank you for more information about the all the santer santer please visit all the center dot org chris volpi's the executive director and founding board member at science counts which is a nonprofit organization that works to strengthen our nations and our personal commitment to science science counts provides resources and research that helped to promote the immense good scientists dufour's after all behind the word science. You'll always find real people people who are working hard each day to find solutions solutions and answers to some of the most complex problems imaginable they give me hope every day and i'm in constant all the wonder value good signs signs and the dedicated people keep searching to find out more about science council in their recent initiatives or to get involved. Please visit it sounds counts dot org. This episode was produced by graham shed with help from our associate producer. Sarah shakes are sound engineer. Is dan zuma. Our tech gurus alison causton and our publicist is sarah hill. You can subscribe to our podcast for free <music> at apple podcasts stitcher or wherever you like to listen for more details about clear and vivid and to sign up for my newsletter please. He's visit alan alda dot com. You can also find us on facebook and instagram at clear and vivid and i'm on twitter at allen. All thanks for listening. Uh next in a series of conversations. I talk with hope jaren hope hope is a scientist and writer who has such a knack for communicating. She convinces me at least that i have more in common with that plant over there then i thought i did the reality is that plants do all the same things we do. They grow they get sick. The heal from sickness they have offspring offspring. They reproduce they store against future bad times. They do all the things we do they. They just do them very differently than we do. We're kind of stuck stuck in a different world from them and so a big part of studying plants well is spending a lot of time imagining just imagine with hope jared than me next time on clear and vivid to listen to these podcasts you can subscribe for free at apple podcast stitcher forever. You listen <music>.

scientist chris volpi alan alda apple stony brook university Chris volpe alan alda center dan kahan Google mike Caffeine michael turner santer santer u. C. G._m._o. dan zuma researcher florida sarah hill
Zero Recourse:  Frontline Workers Say Republicans Proposed Liability Shields Threaten Their Safety

TIME's Top Stories

10:31 min | 7 months ago

Zero Recourse: Frontline Workers Say Republicans Proposed Liability Shields Threaten Their Safety

"Zero recourse frontline workers say Republicans proposed liability shields threaten their safety by Alana Abramson. Like, millions of American workers, Mercedes Taylor, and overnight Security Guard at Houston's William Kahan International. Airport has been forced amid the worsening pandemic to make grim calculation as a sixty-nine year old asthmatic with high blood pressure Taylor is susceptible to complications from covid nineteen, but her need for a paycheck outweighs her concerns for her health. It's a frustrating position to be in. Taylor says while the airport has provided workers with masks and hand. sanitizer she says, management has not been forthcoming when employees test positive, it alarms me that they don't feel the need to tell you. You Might WanNa go get tested. You may have been exposed. She said her frustration increased this week when she learned that Congressional Republicans New Covid Relief Bill includes a proposal that would shield nearly all public and private organizations including her airport from legal liability of workers got sick on the job. We're getting twelve dollars an hour we have no sick days. Taylor says for them to be concerned about the liability of employers and then not being sued versus the employees who have been consistently showing for work and providing service. I'm very disappointed. The Republicans sixty five page proposal introduced by Texas Senator John Cornyn, and backed by the white. House would shield all corporations schools, healthcare organizations, nonprofits, and religious institutions from most covid nineteen related lawsuits under the proposed language corporations and organizations that are following any form of public health guidelines could not be held liable if a worker contracted covid nineteen on the job. If the legislation passes as it's written a worker who wants to sue for a corona virus related death or injury must prove that the organization in question engaged in willful misconduct or gross negligence. These terms would retroactively apply from December Twenty nineteen through October twenty twenty four. Democrats and labor advocates argue that by making the standard of proof. So high the Republicans Bill Grants blanket immunity to public and private organizations all but eliminating their responsibility for their workers safety. It would essentially make it impossible to sue for a covert related injury says, David Vladeck a law professor at Georgetown. University. Who testified before the Senate Judiciary Committee in May. The goal here is to completely insulate businesses, schools, universities, anyone who is a service provider from any immunity at all it sends a signal to the American people that we don't care about your health. He added if you get hurt from someone else you have no recourse zero recourse. Senate majority leader, Mitch McConnell, and Cornyn. Say That's not a fair characterization of the proposed law. It will not ban corona visit lawsuits and it will not give anyone a get out of jail free card. Cornyn. Said on the Senate. Floor on Monday what it will do though is put safeguards in place that will prevent opportunistic lawsuits from harming the workers and institutions we are depending on to see us through this crisis. McConnell says, liability shields are crucial to the US economic recovery and warns of the prospect of a second pandemic of opportunistic litigation enriching trial lawyers at the expense of main, street and medical professionals. Know Bill will be put on the Senate floor that does not have liability protection. He told reporters on Tuesday Big Business lobbyists have been pushing for strong liability protections for months. The Chamber of Commerce spent twelve point, three million dollars lobbying congress and the White House between April and June. In part on liability protections. Disclosure records show smithfield foods a defendant in one corona virus related lawsuit paid top lobbying firm Holland and Knight LLP two, hundred, thirty, thousand dollars to lobby for liability provisions. The American Medical Association the physicians powerful lobbying arm spent over ten million dollars to push for the shields trade associations, representing real estate developers and airlines both spent more than one point five million dollars. Daniel all a senior researcher at the Center for Responsive Politics which tracks political spending says, lobbying disclosure forms have shown considerably more attention being paid to liability and tort reform in twenty nineteen according to data all provided to time one, hundred, forty, five firms were hired to lobby for liability protections by twenty twenty, that number had increased to two, hundred, ninety one. We started hearing from our members across all industries of all different sizes that one of the things they were anticipating was the potential four from their perspective very frivolous lawsuits says, Neal. Bradley an Executive Vice President who oversees policy at the Chamber of Commerce we are constantly learning about new and better ways to prevent the spread of the disease that creates an opening for a lot of folks who want to argue that an employer should have done more than what they did, which has a chilling effect on your ability to reopen. It's not yet clear what version of covert Bill Congress will pass. Any bill will require bipartisan support to get to the president's desk and Democrats widely oppose the Republicans liability measures. The version of a relief bill that House Democrats passed in May does not include liability protections at all. It instead requires the Federal Agency Occupational Safety and Health Administration Osha to set a national standard for workplace protection from the virus based on recommendations from the centers, for disease, control, and prevention. Democrats say that the Republican proposal goes too far and that a viable package must include protections for workers. We WanNa make sure regulations Osha regulations or others are followed and are sufficient to protect patients, customers, employees, and others who are utilizing services or public accommodations that people are making sure that they make every effort available to them to protect people in this Environment House majority leader Steny Hoyer said Wednesday. That will be the context in which we have discussions on liability. As millions of frontline workers like Taylor have continued to go to work despite the pandemic a handful of covid related court cases have cropped up in April and anonymous worker in smithfield foods. Meat Processing Plant in. Missouri sued the company in Federal Court, alleging that it was failing to provide protective equipment and enforce social distancing policies in May and June McDonald's workers filed lawsuits in Illinois and California making similar allegations in June Amazon employees at fulfillment centers in New York and California filed two separate lawsuits both alleging the companies work conditions were causing them to spread the virus to their families and communities. CIONI Brent a California. Amazon employees who filed one of the lawsuits said on July twentieth press call that she only went to the courts after she had raised concerns with her manager and filed a complaint with the California division of Osha that went unheeded without the ability to file a lawsuit. Amazon. Would be able to get away with its actions and more Americans would needlessly get sick or even worse die. She said it is my hope that workers in every industry will be safer because of my lawsuit. But litigation like this isn't very common in part because it's often costly for everyone involved and in part because it's hard for workers to win the case against Smithfield foods was dismissed in May with the judge ruling the matter fell under the jurisdiction of Osha. American Association for Justice A. J. A trade group for trial lawyers that opposes the liability shield legislation analyzed a database of the more than thirty four hundred corona virus related lawsuits compiled by the law firm Hunting Andrews Kurth. It found that just one hundred, sixty one were for wrongful death or. From the virus a AJ executives say the cases filed against corporations like Amazon and McDonald's were critical in shaping the national conversation about the rights of frontline workers. Senator McConnell is seeking to cut off one of the only tools Americans have to keep themselves. Safe says, Julia Duncan Senior, director of government affairs for the organization. Just the filing of these cases can protect hundreds of thousands of workers. Taylor who says she has no intention to sue her employer argues that's not the point. The real issue she says is that at a time of great peril workers, protections should not be rolled back I just think they can do better. Taylor says of Congress I don't mind working I. DON'T MIND rolling up my sleeves, but it's a little bit annoying when I don't feel like I'm being regarded.

Mercedes Taylor Senator John Cornyn smithfield foods Senator McConnell Amazon Senate Bill Congress congress Chamber of Commerce California Alana Abramson Senate Judiciary Committee Federal Agency Occupational Sa David Vladeck William Kahan International Texas American Medical Association Houston
58: "TDAH y Ajedrez"

Charlas sobre TDAH

1:08:52 hr | 2 months ago

58: "TDAH y Ajedrez"

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Episode 128: FALL UP - SESAL #23

YEK YEK JE

07:56 min | 2 months ago

Episode 128: FALL UP - SESAL #23

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