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The Breakdown
A highlight from Institutions Are Getting Ready for the Next Bull Market | Weekly Top Five
"Welcome back to The Breakdown with me, NLW. It's a daily podcast on macro, Bitcoin, and the big picture power shifts remaking our world. What's going on, guys? It is Saturday, September 9th, and that means it's time for the weekly recap. Before we get into that, however, if you are enjoying The Breakdown, please go subscribe to it, give it a rating, give it a review, or if you want to dive deeper into the conversation, come join us on the Breakers Discord. You can find a link in the show notes or go to bit .ly slash breakdown pod. Hello friends, back with round two of the dialogue news analysis show that I've been experimenting with with Scott Melker on Fridays. Still doesn't really have a name. So for you guys, it is just the weekly recap, but on this show, we're digging deeper into a bunch of things that we've covered this week on The Breakdown, as well as some things that we haven't. We talk about Visa's stablecoin settlement program, the FASB changing the accounting rule, a slew of discussions around Genesis and DCG, including Genesis suing DCG, a little bit more ETF talk because it's 2023. So what else are we going to talk about? And then the recent CFTC decisions against a set of DeFi protocols. As always, this content is a little bit more opinionated and analysis versus just what happened. And I think that if I have to sum it up, what all of these stories sort of look like to me or where their common through line is, is entering this phase of final cleanup and preparation and transition from everything that was to everything that will be. You're seeing half of the stories that come out about new TradFi integrations and institutional programs and infrastructure being built, and then half the programs that are about legal battles and cleanup from what happened before. To the extent that there is a shift in feeling among those legal battles, more and more of others and availing themselves of the legal system to actually get better policy made. And so I think net net the trend is towards positivity and the next thing versus being dragged down by the last thing. That said, there is still a lot of cleanup left from last year. So let's dive in and see what you guys think. So it was pretty challenging this week to get down to a top five in my very humble opinion, so much so that I kind of like listed a few honorable mentions here. I am not even in the top five apparently as a jam or JP Morgan moves into deposit tokens for settlements. Stake was hacked by North Korea once again. How can we stop North Korea from hacking us? We have apparently the U .S. authority is an FBI looking into DCG and the IMF saying not to ban crypto. And those aren't even in our top five stories. Pretty crazy week, I would say. But what is is visa taps, Lana and USDC stablecoin to boost cross border payments. Do you want to dig into this for me? It seems that they already were piloting this for quite a while. They've been doing it on Ethereum, but that they've now moved on mostly to Solana because it's faster and cheaper. I mean, I think there's a couple of things that are interesting about this. One is, you know, I think the overarching is Visa just absolutely plowing ahead with the integration of crypto rails as part of its normal course of business. I think what's meaningful about moves like this is that you're sort of moving out of the realm of, oh, it's a cute pilot project for the sake of headlines into this is just another option to settle transactions, which is the core business that we're doing. And I think putting kind of a fine point on that is the fact that this wasn't like I don't believe at least that Visa sat down with the Solana Foundation and cooked up something big. This is just Visa tapping into existing public infrastructure, making a decision to do it, which is exactly what you'd want to see in the normal course of sort of crypto adoption is, again, not sort of headline driven partnerships, quote, unquote, but just integrations of infrastructure. And I think that's that's what we saw here. Yeah, I agree. And Kai Sheffield, who's the head of the Visa side of this, did a great thread on it and said exactly what you just did. You basically said, listen, this is how this thread you guys should take it. This is how Visa works, right? When we settle a transaction, it's between the merchant and the bank. And this is just a better way to do it that we're piloting for anyone who wants to use USDC. They're effectively saying what we've known all this time is that there is a better way to do this, a faster way that eliminates intermediaries and settles even quicker. I mean, it seems like such a layup, but like you said, this didn't require them going to the Solana Foundation or calling a CEO. They just said there's an existing technology here that can make our business better and are adopting it. I think there's just absolutely huge. And yet again, one of those things that's not making noise in this bear market or this crypto winter, whatever we call it, that will be in a year. One of those narratives that we look back on and go, holy crap, Solana is working with Visa and this is how Visa is settling their transactions as we see Solana go up by a few hundred percent. I really think these are going to be meaningful stories in a year when the bull market picks up. I think one of the things that is going to be sort of fascinating to see is Solana has had a real trial by fire, which it was always going to, you know, anytime you have an alt layer one that rises to be sort of the darling of a bull cycle, it has to then go through a bear cycle and see if, you know, was it just venture capitalists taking advantage of a new narrative to make a bunch of money or does it have actual staying power. And Solana had it extra hard because of its association with SAM and FTX and Alameda. And so the fact that you still have people building on it that range from, you know, small projects all the way to sort of Visa, I think is testament to the fact that it's sort of gone through and is working its way through that trial by fire. Yeah, in fact, I mean, from a market perspective, you would think that because of the relationship with SPF and FTX that it was almost beaten down more, obviously, than it should have been and should be one of those that actually has further to rise, right? I mean, the reversion to the mean for Solana when you see the things Ethereum doing and that Matic and Polygon, these partnerships should be tremendous to see. There's still a ton of building happening on Solana. For what it's worth, that's been my assessment of a lot of, you know, we got down to, what was it, you know, 17, 18 ,000 in Bitcoin, you know, sort of the lows post FTX, and we decoupled from the larger macro to the downside. And I think a lot of what we've been doing since then is to some extent finding where the bottom was supposed to be for this cycle, you know, to the extent that there is such a thing. You know, it's always been kind of interesting to see people kind of, you know, why are we at 26 or 30 or whatever it's, you know, my feeling has been that it wasn't necessarily some sort of, you know, big move. It was just that reversion to the mean of, you know, this thing isn't totally dying. And we're back to sort of where the bottom might have been had it not been for catastrophic fraud all over the place. A hundred percent, even if you just look at sort of the four year cycle, we had what would have been the bottom on the chart when, you know, people view that metric in different ways, but where weekly RSI was oversold and all this bottomed around 20. And then all of a sudden we got this sort of FTX black swan, but retraced that across the entire market in just two months. So I really do think that right now, 25K is just sort of fair value. Right. It's where price was before and after Graysdale, before and after BlackRock and before and after sort of FTX. So I agree with that. I think that that means this is just that part of the cycle. Yeah. There's something to be said for people like not being real stressed out about where the price is too, just as a psychological indicator of that. Like, you know, yeah, it would be nicer if it was 30, but at 30, we're getting kind of excited. At 26, we're just sort of hands up shrug. I guess this is kind of where we are for a while. Absolutely. So I think the next story, and I think that this one is one of the biggest stories of the year, actually, is FASB's crypto accounting shakeup could learn more corporate investment. Michael Saylor and others argue for anyone who wasn't paying attention. You've probably watched the show. You've probably heard the nuance of this, but effectively we had Michael Saylor and MicroStrategy buying Bitcoin, sparking the last bull market. I think it's fair to say it was like August 2020, and that led to the massive run up Tesla buying, Square buying. And we saw that Michael Saylor sat down with, I believe it was 2000 CFOs of companies. We were all so excited that February of 2021, he was going to teach them all how to put Bitcoin on the balance sheet. Crickets, right? It absolutely didn't happen. And it turned out that was a result of the way that they had to account for their Bitcoin on their balance sheet, which was effectively to peg it to the lowest point it was during that quarter and then take the loss. And even if it was higher, you couldn't take the game. Well, those rules are now changing in 2025. So I don't think that this is a massive catalyst at the moment, but this opens up just huge potential in the future. Yeah, I mean, it's funny. I love the quotes around this one because the people who are on the FASB were basically like, it's very rare that we get to do something that's incredibly obvious, time saving and right. And but this is that, you know, and that's why it had a unanimous vote. It just the way that it was accounted for didn't make sense before. And to your point, Scott, you know, I don't think this is going to be a theme to any time you start to kind of look at institutions getting involved in some way, there's a temptation to view every story as it should be a bigger deal than it is. But really, it's all about the slow accumulation of normalization. And this is just another part of that. You know, no one is going to make the decision to put Bitcoin or either anything on their balance sheet because they know how to account for it, but they might have come close and not because they didn't know how to account for it or the way that they would have accounted for it didn't make any sense to them. So it's kind of a barrier clearing process that I think is part and parcel of where we are in the cycle as well. That's right. Now, if they want to, they can. And before, if they wanted to, they couldn't unless they were out of their mind and wanted to piss off their board and shareholders. Right. I mean, Michael Saylor obviously here saying fair value accounting is coming to Bitcoin. This upgrade to FASB accounting rules eliminates a major impediment to corporate adoption of Bitcoin as a treasury asset. Like I said, guys, this is a 2025 thing, but this is going to give those CFOs and risk managers a long time to actually consider this. And then James Lavish, I just want to point out, he did an incredible thread on this. If you're looking to have it explained to you, I think in more layman's terms, this is the thread you want to go to. Now, listen, we I think we all are clear on that one. This next story, we had to effectively like rope in five different things because this is everything grayscale at the moment and it's a monster headache, in my opinion. But the first one that I went, I think, went completely unnoticed as part of the Genesis story is they're shuttering their crypto trading desk for the U .S. market. This is their OTC trading desk. I'm going to be honest with you, Nathaniel, I didn't know that they still had a trading desk. Yeah, I think that's why they went unnoticed, because people would have assumed that it was just gone already. Right. But I really thought that in their bankruptcy they had capitulated and that their business had basically wound down. But apparently they were still a major player. And this is important because this is how huge entities largely buy and sell Bitcoin. Right. They're not going on Coinbase and placing a bunch of bits. Michael Saylor might be, honestly, but most of them do this through institutional OTC deaths. And this could leave a gaping hole. I mean, Max Boonen, who I love, said, so Genesis trading stops trading. Why? And no one on crypto Twitter is commenting on it. But at the same time, we see the news. Coinbase begins offering crypto loans to large U .S. institutional investors. That's the other side of Genesis's business. But clearly, Coinbase is coming into is stepping in to try to fill this Genesis vacuum. Yeah, I mean, it is a big loss to have sort of a prime brokerage esque service that, you know, the most notable one totally decommissioned. But at the same time, you know, you have to think that any institution worth its salt, any investor worth its salt, saw the writing on the wall, you know, basically probably as soon as withdrawals started being halted in November and started making other plans. So even if there was still business going through there, you have to think that some of that was starting to shift. It does leave a vacuum, but, you know, nature abhors a vacuum and so do crypto markets. And especially with so many institutions now lurking around the edges of the space, building infrastructure for it, you have to think that that's that gap is going to be filled by more than just crypto native companies like Coinbase real, real soon.
The Breakdown
A highlight from Visa Goes Deeper on Stablecoin Settlement
"Welcome back to The Breakdown with me, NLW. It's a daily podcast on macro, Bitcoin, and the big picture power shifts remaking our world. What's going on, guys? It is Wednesday, September 6th, and today we're talking about big news from Visa. Before we get into that, however, if you are enjoying The Breakdown, please go subscribe to it, give it a rating, give it a review, or if you want to dive deeper into the conversation, come join us on the Breakers Discord. You can find a link in the show notes or go to bit .ly slash breakdown pod. So yesterday's episode started with a very brief discussion of a nominally big thing for Solana that didn't push the price at all. What we're going to do today is talk about that thing, which is much bigger than just Solana, and also talk about what it says about the general state of the cycle that we're in. The specific news was that Visa has announced an expansion of their stablecoin settlement to include the Solana network. Visa will now settle some cross -border payments using USDC on Solana. The payments company began experimenting with USDC for treasury operations in 2021. The pilot began with Crypto .com's crypto -linked Visa cards issued in Australia. Visa set up a cross -border settlement channel with Crypto .com, which allowed the exchange to finalize customer purchases using USDC over Ethereum. The expansion of the USDC settlement pilot is being done in collaboration with merchant acquirers WorldPay and Nuvei. This will allow merchant customers to select USDC stablecoin settlement as an option instead of receiving fiat currencies. Now the upgrade to Visa's systems is entirely a back -end improvement, and it's designed to cut settlement times and costs. In a statement, they explained that at the moment, quote, But what they don't see is that the funds used for their purchases need to move between their bank, the issuer, and the merchant's bank, the acquirer. This is where Visa's treasury and settlement systems enable the clearing, settlement, and movement of billions in transactions a day, making sure the correct amount in the preferred currency is received from the issuer and sent to the acquirer, end quote. Now currently cross -border card payments rely on the SWIFT system, which can take several days to finalize. By switching to crypto rails, merchants can receive cleared payments much faster, which is obviously a huge boon when it comes to cash flow management. Visa head of crypto Kai Sheffield said in a Twitter thread, WorldPay and Nuvei enable card acceptance for a diverse set of merchants across the world, including a growing number of merchants interacting with the blockchain and crypto economy who may prefer to use USDC within their corporate treasuries over traditional fiat banking. Visa can now settle these payments to WorldPay and USDC, enabling WorldPay to more flexibly manage their own treasury infrastructure and route the USDC directly to their merchants with less worry about wire cutoff times and bank holidays. It's still early days, but Visa has already settled millions of dollars of USDC over the Ethereum and Solana blockchains between our clients. We are committed to continuing to innovate around how we move money and provide our clients modern options for settlement, end quote. Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire noted that the paradigm shift enabled by using USDC as a settlement currency and not just a payments currency. Also on Twitter, he wrote, One of the things that I am most excited about regarding this new expanded use of USDC by Visa is the fact that USDC is being used as a core settlement layer within the Visa network, a more real -time, global alternative to traversing SWIFT and various ACH rails. More often than not, everyone focuses on the purely retail uses like the Shopify USDC plugin. When in reality, USDC is a generic digital dollar protocol that spans from retail to wholesale across commerce and finance. Our existing mental models for payment systems are dated. An internet -native digital dollar and stablecoin network protocol scales from tiny micropayments in P2P transactions to multi -hundred million dollar capital market transactions, end quote. Now, while Visa has been experimenting with faster USDC settlement on the card issuer side of the business for some time, this pilot extends that functionality over to the merchant settlement side. Now, to bulls, this move seems like a significant step forward in the adoption of crypto networks as a global public and neutral end -to -end value transfer system. Visa currently settles $11 .6 trillion in global payments annually and this settlement use case is precisely what research firm Bernstein envisioned when they made their call in August that stablecoins could become a $2 .8 trillion market over the next five years. So in terms of community reactions, obviously for the Solana bulls, this was a huge deal. Anatoly Yakovenko, the founder at Solana Labs said, I want Solana to be so cheap that it saves Visa money to use it over its own in -house infrastructure. And I want Solana to be so fast that it improves the user experience as well. Lily Lu, president of the Solana Foundation said, We've had a long -standing thesis around payments being only possible on Solana. Fifteen years into the conception of cryptocurrencies and the gradual progression of this use case from forum post to proof of concept to DeFi adoption, Solana meets users where they are today. Click a button, something happens immediately and with infinitesimal cost. This is going to be demonstrated at scale with Visa building on Solana. Now, others focused on the significance from the Visa side of things. Terry Angelos, who formerly worked on crypto at Visa said, Visa is an authorization network and not a payment network. Merchants pay for real -time authorization, security and guaranteed payment. Settlement post -transaction is when Visa moves dollars from issuers to merchants and that can happen on Wires, ACH and now crypto rails. Nick Carter writes, This is a huge deal. Writing on the wall, stables would become de facto interbank settlement solution via card networks. Even my non -crypto fintech friends are fired up about this. This is one of the most important news items of the year. Caitlin Long puts it even more catchily saying, Visa debanks the banks by going around them to settle US dollar payments outside the US banking system and outside traditional USD payment rails. Pilot programs for now, but… Dennis Porter, the CEO of the Satoshi Action Fund wrote, Bitcoin -only people will hate this but it needs to be said. Stablecoins will play an important role in the next wave of financial technology. The dollar isn't going anywhere anytime soon. In fact, stables will strengthen the dollar. Banks will adopt quickly. Now I could and maybe will at some point do an entire show about why Bitcoin and stablecoins aren't at least in the short term competitive. One offers an improvement on the system that exists. The other offers an opt -out of the system as it exists. In other words, they are far from incompatible. Finally, Mert, the CEO at Helios Labs says, The Visa news today isn't just good for Solana, it's awesome news for all of crypto. Slowly the Overton window is shifting and more financial activity is moving on chain. So this must have caused a huge price run up, right? I mean, this is big news. Nick Carter called it one of the biggest pieces of news of the year. Alas, Solana was up just 2%. Crypto trader Gumshoe wrote, In a bull market, Solana would have jumped over 100 % with all the crazy news of the past two weeks lol. The other news that he's referring to was Solana Pay integrating with Shopify two weeks ago. Trader Horse writes, The sole response is a good indication of the current market environment. Imagine what this post would lead to during any other point. Instead, price is listless. This is not a supply issue. We just don't have any buyers. The news should excite long -term investors, however. Teams that are still grinding in the bear get rewarded in the bull. Now I weighed in on this yesterday as well, tweeting, People looking for prices to move up on good news right now are totally missing the part of the cycle we're in. Until new buyers come in, it's sideways or down only. Doesn't mean good news isn't still good. It's just not going to show up in price. Now in the particular case of Solana, there is a general and specific context. The general is what we just talked about and where we are in the cycle. The specific is that Solana is dealing with the overhang of the FTX estate having $1 .1 billion worth of Solana in their coffers right now. That's something like 13 % of the total supply. Reinforcing the contrast between news and energy, even as all this was happening, Solana's daily active addresses fell to around 204 ,000 at the end of August. That's the lowest level for the metric since the block began tracking it in late 2020. Rebecca Stevens, data analyst at The Block Research, put the reasons pretty crisply saying, The Solana ecosystem was already seeing a decline in active users prior to the collapse of FTX, but the fact that the blockchain had such strong ties to the exchange and Alameda Research hurt its reputation a bit. The SEC alleging that Sol is a security also hurt the token's price and has caused it to be delisted in the U .S. on several platforms like eToro and Robinhood. Now overall, the block's monthly exchange volume measurement hit its lowest point so far during this cycle in August. Just $423 billion in volume was moved through centralized exchanges last month, falling below other recent low points in May and December. The lack of trading on exchanges was punctuated by Binance falling below $200 billion in monthly volume for the first time since November 2020. Now this lack of activity extends to Bitcoin as well. Dylan LeClair tweeted, As a percentage of circulating supply, Bitcoin moved in the last 30 days is at an all -time low of 5 .4%. Meanwhile, spot volumes are at levels not seen since 2019. Saying this market is thin currently is an understatement. Reflexivity Research co -founder Will Clemente writes, Crypto aggregated trading volume is the lowest that it's been since 2020. Google's search trends for Bitcoin and crypto at multi -year lows. Realized volatility, implied volatility, weekly Bollinger Bands, all near record lows. This is exactly what apathy looks like. Now Kaleo pointed out that although this is brutal, it's not necessarily out of sync with the cycle. He wrote, Centralized exchange volumes haven't been this low since December 2020. Daily average volume is down from $164 billion at peak to around $13 billion now, a 92 % decline. For reference, the peak in the 2017 bull market was around $28 billion, with an average of $2 .5 billion per day six months prior to the 2020 halving, a 91 % decline. So after all of the centralized exchange trauma we've seen over the past year, we're still in line with a similar trend to what we saw last cycle, despite how rough it may feel. Still, I think it's worth noting comments from Kobe given during the height of the bull market. On the Up Only show, he said quote, You need to have the same level of interest when everything is really boring. The main way you have to make it is to try to perpetuate your interest through the boring bit. The boring bit is where the opportunity is. Now of course, one of the things that people anticipate could bring some new blood in is that fabled Bitcoin spot ETF. So an update on that front as well. After winning a comprehensive victory in court last week, lawyers for Grayscale have written to the SEC to ask them to get moving. According to Grayscale, the court ruling was so comprehensive that the SEC has quote no grounds for treating the Grayscale Bitcoin trust differently to Bitcoin futures ETFs. They wrote quote, Now the letter anticipates a change in tactics from the SEC who may choose to introduce new reasons to prevent Grayscale from converting GBTC into an ETF. The letter stated that quote, Grayscale pressed home the importance of resolving this conversion in a timely manner given the number of rival products clamoring for approval. The letter noted that the SEC may have now exceeded the time allowed to refuse an application, reserving their right to argue in court that the conversion should now be deemed approved. Grayscale argued that quote, Finally, they requested to meet with the SEC as soon as possible to discuss the path forward. James Safart, ETF analyst at Bloomberg said, Now even as the ETF situation works to be resolved, there is clearly some jockeying for positioning as it relates to renewed or new institutional interest in the crypto space. As a for example, Coinbase has launched a new crypto lending service aimed at U .S. institutional clients. The service looks to fill in the gap left by the Genesis and BlockFi bankruptcies. An under -the -radar SEC filing made last week disclosed the program already has $57 million in client funds. According to a person familiar with the service, clients can lend out their crypto assets on an over collateralized basis to Coinbase. The firm can then extend those crypto assets as loans to institutional trading firms. This is essentially the same business as prime brokerage in the traditional finance space. Now, unlike the canceled Coinbase Lend program, retail customers are explicitly excluded from this service. By catering exclusively to accredited and institutional clients, Coinbase is able to offer the service under less onerous regulatory requirements. Honestly, one of the big takeaways is just what a big gap has been left by Genesis in the U .S. institutional environment. However, as you'll hear in an interview coming out later this week or maybe even later today with Hani Rashwan from 21Shares, that institutional interest may be far less gone than it might currently seem. However, that is going to do it for today's episode. I appreciate you listening as always, and until tomorrow, be safe and take care of each other.
Tech Path Crypto
A highlight from 1238. Visa Launches Payments on Solana | USDC Stablecoin Set To Explode
"All right, so let's dive into Solana today. A lot of big news happening around Visa, what this partnership and or association might mean for Solana's future, but more importantly how payments may be affected worldwide with Visa and Solana playing into this. It's going to be a good one. My name is Paul Bearer. Welcome back into Tech Path. We'll get into a full lineup here. Part of this you've probably seen here on our show before. In fact, if you go to our YouTube channel, you're going to see a few things here. We did a full -on video right there with Visa ends Ethereum gas fees, Coinbase surpasses Bitcoin. The point is we've been reporting on this for quite some time, seeing some of the advancements that Visa has been able to make, obviously one of the biggest leaders in the financial sector in terms of credit card payments. But I think this is a little bit of a different story. I want to break into a few points here. I want to go right to the press release. And this is Visa expanding stablecoin settlement capabilities to merchant acquirers. And I'll explain what that means here in a second. Visa is expanding a stablecoin settlement all to the high -performing Solana blockchain and is working with merchant acquirers, WorldPay and Nuvei. This is a big deal because it gets into the overall structure of how Visa translates from an actual consumer using a credit card all the way to the merchant that is being paid. So further in the data here, it says through live pilots, issuers and acquirers, Visa has already moved millions of USDC between its partners over the Solana and Ethereum blockchain networks to settle fiat -denominated payments authorized over VisaNet. So big deal. Further down in the press release, the Circle account that they have, Visa can now manage settlement payouts in USDC to WorldPay and Nuvei, who can now then route these payments in USDC to their end merchants. Another big advantage here. As Visa looked to expand its capability to additional clients, there's also been a significant demand to leverage newer high -performance blockchains that can send and receive stablecoins with higher speed and lower costs. What does that sound like? Sounds like Solana. And then, of course, they go on and says this makes Visa one of the first major payment companies at scale to directly utilize Solana for live settlement payments between its clients. So this is a big news for Solana. Obviously, Solana moving up a little bit on the chart today where most of the market is down. Last up on their point was Block Explorer Soul Scan numbers include real TPS, excluding voting TPS. I'll explain that in a little bit. We'll get into some of that detail. There was a couple other points to make here is that Visa controls a lot of the credit card networks when you look out there in the system. And the consistency that they've been able to hold in terms of the dominance has been pretty significant. 52 .6 % right there against their nearest competitor at MasterCard and then even Amex and Discover kind of coming into play. So the reason I say that is because this has a major impact on the overall cost for Visa's infrastructure. Now, I want you to think about that for a second. If you're a business, if you're a publicly traded company, and you're out there and you have a new solution, a new technology that starts to reduce cost in a big way to you, it's really your fiduciary responsibility as either the business owner or the CEO to start to look into these things. This is a big deal. I think this will also kind of be interesting to look at how this connects between the future of payments and the consumer side of this, which we'll talk about here in a second. Here was Kai Sheffield, who's one of the Visa guys over there that's really breaking it down. One of the things that they showcase here is it's still early days, but Visa has already settled millions of dollars in the USDC. We talked about that earlier. But this is kind of the framework of what it looks like. And when you look at this, it goes out from the consumer in through the issuer, typical. You'll notice over there on the left side, you've got bank wire, which is typically the route that it's going, which costs money. And then you've got Ethereum and Solana that now starts to reduce that infrastructure costs in both in and out, which goes over to the acquirer. So again, getting back in and of course, eventually that flows out all the way into the merchant, which is a big deal because when that starts to reduce cost, then this starts to change the game for payment systems globally. Obviously, Visa kind of controlling the market out there. So this would be a big, big advantage. I'm surprised Solana isn't moving up even more so. Obviously, we've got a lot of pressure on the markets right now. But Solana, of course, making its way up the charts a little bit. If you look at a couple of things here on the stablecoin dashboard and on Solscan, you'll evident here as USDC. And typically, that has been kind of the thing. So again, this is just another big advantage of USDC making a major play into the major finance networks. And this, I think, is one of the bigger things to watch, especially as Visa jumps into this because the likelihood is we're going to see more and more of these payment networks doing the same exact thing. And that is figuring out a model in which they could come into this. All right, so in real -time transactions, you can kind of see it happening right here. Again, this is over on Explorer for Solana. So this is showing that the toolset is at work and obviously, Solana being well used within the ecosystem in terms of payment architecture. A couple of the aspects to look at here, these are transactions per second and the success rate. TPS is growing, so this is something that we've anticipated. This, I think, is in the very, very early stages. We are going to see an absolute explosion of TPS once we start to see the kind of implementation of these networks really kind of come to fruit. This is going to be an advantage, I think, for the marketplace that a lot of people are probably not necessarily anticipating. The other thing that plays into it, these are the non -vote and the vote transactions. Remember, we were talking about earlier in that press release of the voting transactions and the non -vote transactions. Obviously, the voting transactions are growing right now, but again, I think this will be a scenario that plays in time that will showcase how these companies will really start to utilize blockchains like Solana to really further kind of the definition of what they're doing in terms of their payment architecture. A couple of clips I want to get to. This first one is getting into Kai Sheffield, the guy with Visa, talking a little bit more around the crypto test. Listen in. Companies like Crypto .com, they're saying, wait a minute, we're holding some of our corporate treasury in USDC. We pay some of our employees in USDC. Consumers are spending from a balance of crypto or USDC. Why do we have to convert that back into traditional fiat in a bank account just to be able to settle the obligations that we have with Visa? Today, we can't receive USDC from one of our clients to a traditional bank because traditional banks don't support USDC. They're not plugged into public blockchains. Now we have an account at Anchorage where we have an Ethereum address that we can provide to a client and we could say, instead of having to send us a bank wire to our existing bank account and paying us in dollars, you can pay us in the public Ethereum blockchain to the account that we have with Anchorage. There's going to be a long transitionary period. I think a lot of people think in these binaries of you live in a world of just traditional fiat bank accounts or you go completely crypto and everything is in USDC on public networks. For as long as we can see, there will be traditional fiat and there will be digital fiat. All right. This came over from the Bankless guy. The cool thing here is that he's referencing this whole payment infrastructure. There are problems within it that I think will take some, you know, payments really are kind of at a 2 .5 level right now before we see Web3 really take off. And he is exactly right. There's going to be both. I think a lot of people will have both a crypto wallet and a traditional banking wallet. What's going to be interesting to me is one, how the IRS is going to continue to maneuver in it, because that's one of the biggest situations that I think falls into this, is that the traceability of these things are going to be very troublesome unless you've got companies out there that are able to be able to track this. Visa will be one of them, but there's others that I think we're going to be getting into. Payroll, I think, is another one that I think eventually we'll move into it. I'll show you a couple things here. I want to jump into also what Kai was talking about, NFTs. Listen to it. Now we see NFTs as this, you know, really brand new phase of commerce where it's a digital storefront and it's an entirely digital product that you're selling. And we think that the potential that this has to just increase the velocity of commerce is tremendous. When you can sell something to someone across the world and have it minted instead of produced in a physical factory, and then have it delivered to a crypto address instead of shipped to a mailing address, and have that happen instantaneously, and then have whoever receives it be able to own it and resell it if they'd like to someone else all across the world, the number of transactions and the amount of commerce that can happen we think could be beyond anything that we've ever seen before. Okay, so I just want to make a point here. That is one of the leads at Visa saying this. So the reality is coming to a scenario with Visa where they see the future. And when you look at Ethereum, you look at Solana, the potential of what Web3 has to hold in the future, I think we're really at a very interesting forefront of innovation happening right now. And part of this is still the old guard holding on to traditional banking, traditional politics, traditional everything. And then you have this new guard coming in. And it happens with cycles all the time in terms of demographics. The difference now is that there had never really been a monetary system that separated like that. And now we have that. And I think he's exactly right, is that the opportunity is going to be absolutely unbelievable here in the future. And I think a lot of the emerging demographics and some of the demographics out there that just are very native digital or technology wise, they're going to be able to accept what's happening and really take advantage of it in the near future. Let's go over to a clip here by Jeremy Allaire from Circle around the use case of Solana and USDC. Listen in. By the plateau, is that just kind of normal market stuff? Or do you feel as though there are specific use cases that Solana developers should be working on that would really help grow that number? Right now, I think USDC has double the amount that Tether does. It's the most used stablecoin on the network. But what does it need to really go from $2 .5 billion to closer to what it does on, say, Ethereum? And so I think just continuing to focus on building quality experiences, building high performance experiences, and doing things that aren't possible in other places. I think having central limit order books, for example, as a composable unit opens up all these other applications that people can build on top of. One of the apps that I'm really excited about seeing get built out and launched is Star Atlas, which is a game. But it has a marketplace for in -game items. And it has a lot going on. So there's a lot of different things in that project. But they're able to take the Serum protocol and weave that into their game marketplace. And that's pretty powerful when you start to see these things mixed together. So I think Alair also is very savvy on where the future is going. And I think this is one of the things when you have major corporations like Circle and what's happening with Visa, then you layer in some of this technology like what Solana has been able to achieve. All the pieces of the puzzle start to come together. And that's when you see major innovation and advancement. It's happened before in the era of the Internet, mobile, social. All those cycles of tech adoption for society happened because of companies that started to realize, hey, there's some better ways out there. An example of that is what like Superfluid is doing here. So they are a company that essentially are going to be doing streaming payments. And just to show you a little bit about what they're up to, this is how they're looking at streaming real time payments in from users directly into your business. And it's happening right now. Now, this is very early and we'll most likely see a lot of other companies that are going to be able to do this in the future. Obviously, blockchain, especially blockchains like Solana, make a big opportunity for this to happen. Further into this, this is Copper X. All right, so I'm going to play this for you, just an example. But they're using Superfluid to essentially transact like this. And again, this gets right back into the idea around not only Solana, but also within the ETH ecosystem that plays into this. So again, very, very big opportunity here for streaming payments and what that might look like. And what really starts to go into an opportunity is getting into the idea of payroll. And payroll is a big problem because right now there's really only one way to do it. But when you have such a global population, people all over the world, you know, you've got issues with from one country to the next in terms of the value and the denominations, all that plays into nothing when it comes to crypto. And I think that's a big advantage of companies that are able to kind of leap forward into that X layer. I want to play a clip here from them to kind of talk a little bit more about what Copper X is doing. Listen in.
The Breakdown
A highlight from A Primer on China's Current Economic Turmoil
"Welcome back to The Breakdown with me, NLW. It's a daily podcast on macro, Bitcoin, and the big picture power shifts remaking our world. What's going on, guys? It is Thursday, August 17th, and today we are doing a great, big, what the heck is going on with China episode. Before we get into that, however, if you are enjoying The Breakdown, please go subscribe to it, give it a rating, give it a review, or if you want to dive deeper into the conversation, come join us on the Breakers Discord. You can find a link at the show notes or go to bit .ly slash breakdown pod. Hello friends, we are rumbling on towards the end of the week. And speaking of rumblings, if you have been watching the macro Twittersphere closely, there have been growing rumblings about China. You see it pop up a little bit in mainstream media and on YouTube's and certainly now happening on podcasts. And then yesterday, Preston Pish tweeted, anyone have a really good and recent article or podcast on what's happening with the economy in China right now? Well over here at The Breakdown, that really cinched it that we were going to dig into this. And before we do the usual caveats, one, I am not a China expert, just like basically I'm not an expert on anything we talk about here. But what we try to do well over here at The Breakdown is aggregate sources to help you better understand what's happening at least a little bit better. And number two, to the extent it comes up, apologies in advance for pronunciations or perhaps I should say mispronunciations. With that, let's try to get a sense of what's happening and why it matters. On Tuesday, the People's Bank of China cut rates on one year loans by 15 basis points to 2 .5%. This is the largest cut since 2020 and was an emergency policy adjustment following the release of some truly dismal economic data. July data showed weak consumer spending growth, sliding investment and rising unemployment. Youth unemployment for people between the ages of 16 and 24 hit 21 % in June. I know you guys can do the math, but to put that differently, that means one in five young people are now out of work. In fact, this month, the National Bureau of Statistics didn't actually release data on youth unemployment, stating that they needed to adjust their methodology to exclude students seeking their first job. Now, over in currency land, the yuan has devalued by 6 % over the course of the year, recently reaching the low point it recorded last October of 7 .3 yuan per dollar. That's the weakest exchange rate for the yuan since late 2007. Data from June showed that China have decreased their holdings of U .S. treasuries for three months in a row, bringing them to a 14 -year low. Some analysts believe that these reserves have been mobilized to defend the yuan from devaluing too rapidly. June CPI data released last week showed that the Chinese economy was in outright deflation. Consumer prices fell by 0 .3 % on an annualized basis. Manufacturing activity has now contracted for four months straight, and GDP growth this year has been paltry, recording 2 .2 % in the first quarter and just 0 .8 % in the second quarter. Multiple international banks have now downgraded Chinese growth estimates, forecasting that the economy will fail to achieve the 5 % growth target set by the CCP. And if that target is not hit, it will be the third year in a row with sub -5 % growth, an unprecedented rough patch in the post -Mao era from 1976 onwards. Now, contributing to this are debt problems, credit problems, and social stability problems. But before we get to those, let's do a whistle -stop review of the last few years in China to see how things wound up in this position. You will remember that during the pandemic, China ran one of the strictest and longest -running lockdown regimes in the world. And while the impact of the lockdown on the people of China was of course immense, the disruption it caused was also a major driver in economic dysfunction. Global supply chains became broken, impacting items from semiconductors to gym equipment. While the fragility of supply chains based in Chinese manufacturing had long been a talking point for hawks in the West, the failure of multiple critical supply chains during the pandemic cemented the idea of reshoring manufacturing across the political aisle in the US. Since taking office, the Biden administration has pursued major industrial policy with a view to decoupling critical industries from reliance on China. The financial sector has also been discouraged from investing in China over the past few years, with a range of policies and pressure campaigns ensuring that capital flows into China are crimped. And as a little bit of a self -shill, if you want to hear about how this has been impacting the development of their artificial intelligence field, go check that out. There continues to be incredible pressure on the Biden administration to even increase restrictions on export of AI -related technology to China, even though many of those restrictions are already in place. Anyway, heading back into the COVID era, as the rest of the world opened up and rolled back lockdowns in late 2021, China continued to be locked down into the strict zero COVID era. Many times, even when it appeared that things were on the verge of opening back up, some new outbreak would cause another lockdown, leading ultimately to citizens bristling at the continuation of tough track and trace policies. Another big notable event during this time was that in December of 2021, the massive Evergrande property development group defaulted on an interest payment on its corporate bonds. The property giant had been severely impacted by a crackdown on leverage within the property sector in 2020 and had struggled to refinance its debt. The tightening of credit standards was known as the three red lines policy and was intended to reduce the credit risk of home builders. When it collapsed, Evergrande had over 50 million apartments left unfinished, leaving homeowners to question whether they would ever receive finished units. The Evergrande failure precipitated further economic problems across China in 2022. Protesters staged demonstrations outside banks, with organized groups refusing to make mortgage payments on unfinished homes. In many cases, mortgages had been taken out prior to construction beginning, and so you can only imagine the frustration of people who were continuing to pay for homes that had been further and further delayed and who couldn't actually even live in them. In that same time period, multiple banks and wealth management products failed across the country and Chinese real estate in general entered its most severe downturn in history. Now the government did step in to manage the Evergrande failure and broader economic contagion. They were, however, in a tough position. Government policy around the restriction of credit to the property sector had been a major catalyst for the problems, but officials were reluctant to wind back the regulations entirely. President Xi Jinping has been outspoken about reducing the financialization of housing, stating, quote, houses are for living in, not for speculation. Now diving a little bit deeper into this area of the economy, the property sector is a key part of basically every major economy, but China takes this element to the extreme. China has one of the most overvalued housing markets in the world in relation to income. On average, an apartment cost over 30 times annual income, with major cities like Shanghai bringing this ratio as high as 50 times income. In the US, the ratio between housing costs and income is closer to four times on average and 10 times for major metros like New York and San Diego. Part of the reason housing is so expensive is that Chinese citizens use housing as a primary store of wealth. Again, this is true globally, but it's particularly lopsided in China. Housing accounts for more than 70 % of household wealth in China. Many people invest in property and then hold it vacant to preserve its value as a never lived in home. China has some of the highest rates of homeownership in the world, with as many as 90 % of households owning at least one property. This skew towards the property sector is largely a function of mistrust in other domestic assets, as well as tight capital controls. The Chinese stock market is notoriously opaque and lacking in the disclosure rules that provide a semblance of investor protection in the West. And while managed investment products are popular, they're often just proxies for exposure to the property sector. Analysts typically measure the Chinese property sector as representing around 30 % of Chinese GDP, which compares to the estimates of around 17 % in the US. Now other countries, including Canada and Australia, have similar levels of household wealth and GDP contribution from the property sector. But the key difference for the Chinese housing industry is the sheer scale of the market. Chinese real estate is estimated to be worth $42 .7 trillion. This is slightly larger than the US real estate market in aggregate, and even a few trillion dollars bigger than the total market capitalization of the entire US stock market. Many point to Chinese real estate then as the largest asset class in the world, and it is going down hard right now. Official data has new home prices down 2 .4 % across China since their peak in August of 2021. Existing homes have dropped by 6 % in the same time. This is already a massive drop for a housing market that was generally assumed to go up forever, but these official average figures don't tell the whole story. In China, closing prices for real estate are not public, so the official data is an estimate at best and a political fabrication at worst. The data relies on surveys and has significant smoothing to dampen trends. This makes turning points difficult to capture and could mean the official data is not telling the full story. Private data from property agents shows major markets like Shanghai and Shenzhen falling by at least 15 % in prime neighborhoods. The real estate surrounding Alibaba's headquarters is estimated to have lost a quarter of its value. Goldman Sachs economist Wang Lishang said, Now, alongside the fall in the housing market, more acute problems in the financial sector have also sprung up recently. At the end of July, Zhongrong International Trust Company missed payments across dozens of wealth management products. The company is a gigantic player in the Chinese shadow banking sector, which intermediates loans between individuals and private lenders. They primarily deal in the sale of real estate backed bonds, and at least 30 products are now overdue, and the company have said they have no immediate plans to make clients whole. Chinese authorities have set up a task force to investigate potential contagion, and banking regulators are looking into risks at the firm's part owner, Zhongjie Enterprise Group. Zhongjie managed around $138 billion. Jason Hsu, chief investment officer of Raelient Global Advisors, said, This was one that everyone knew was going to blow up. Overall, there are 106 trust products across the country in default through to July of this year, worth around $6 billion in principle. Real estate investments have accounted for 74 % of default by value. Corporate defaults are also up in recent months. June and July recorded missed payments on more than a billion dollars in domestic notes. That's the worst stretch since last December and January, which was punctuated by the default of Evergrande. This time around, the problem seems centered on an even larger property developer called Country Garden. The firm is considered by most to be the largest home builder in China and has more than four times as many outstanding projects as Evergrande. Country Garden has missed payments on its dollar -denominated bonds and is currently inside a 30 -day grace period prior to a formal default. Trading has been suspended on at least 11 onshore notes, and payment extension proposals are in the works. Country Garden's January 2024 dollar bond issuance traded at 9 cents earlier this week, an implied yield of 2 ,500%, just to give you an idea of how the market is pricing the firm's chance of recovery here. Now, as credit risk rips through domestic markets, China's major state -owned banks have been told to sell dollars to buy yuan in both onshore and offshore markets. According to anonymous sources speaking to Reuters, Chinese banks have been propping up the yuan throughout the week in an attempt to control the decline of the currency. Now, standard caveat on quoting Zero Hedge, but Zero Hedge is also reporting that Beijing have urged investment funds not to sell off Chinese stocks. Taking a step back, up until recently, the Chinese reopening was a major narrative for markets. There had been turmoil across China over the last two years, but many investors consoled themselves that China would reopen strong and provide some much -needed growth to the global economy. What's happened is almost the complete opposite. Chinese growth has come in weak and sputtered along since reopening. It now looks like China is headed for a recession at best, if not a full -blown financial crisis. Carnegie Endowment senior fellow Michael Pettis wrote, It may seem like terrible luck and amazing coincidence that so many things are going wrong in the Chinese economy at the same time. But of course, it is not a coincidence at all. This is how systemic imbalances work themselves out. I've often written about the Minskyan dynamics of long periods in which market variables move persistently in the same direction. When that happens, businesses, banks, local governments, and households who implicitly or explicitly take too much one -direction risk systematically outperform those that don't, until eventually the operations and balance sheets of much of the economy are directly or indirectly leveraged to those variables. That is why, when that variable finally reverses, the damage can often be much greater than anyone expected, mainly because no one understood the extent of the implicit and explicit exposures. Decades of surging property prices, expanding liquidity, and contracting credit spreads in China have created an economy in which balance sheets have highly correlated mismatches and distortions. In that case, the impact of an eventual reversal is brutally hard to predict. What about the response? Well, three weeks ago, when it had become clear that China was entering another period of economic distress, Chinese leaders vowed to provide more support. The Politburo pledged to spur consumer spending, tackle unemployment, and backstop the property sector. However, details were sorely lacking. The Politburo's statement acknowledged that the economic recovery after reopening was making quote torturous progress and that it was necessary to quote actively expand domestic demand and expand consumption by increasing residents' income. Julian Evans -Pritchard, head of China economics at Capital Economics, lamented the lack of a clear plan. He said at the time, Given how bad things are at the moment, it is a bit disappointing that they didn't give us some figures. And while their statement did recognize the risk to the economy, Evans -Pritchard said quote, They are not so desperate that they feel the need to resort to the old -school Big Bang stimulus. What he's referring to is that during prior downturns during the 2008 global financial crisis and the 2012 euro crisis, the CCP was eager to dole out massive stimulus on the supply side. The Chinese government directed the stockpiling of commodities and gigantic infrastructure projects to keep growth ticking over at a fast pace despite global economic turmoil. This time around, as of yet, there is no clear policy, just haphazard emergency interventions. For example, the People's Bank of China has cut rates, but there's a limit to what monetary stimulus can do to support consumption. This time, the problem is deflation, a collapse of demand. Until now, Chinese policymakers have largely been able to keep the economy out of the ditch using only supply -side stimulus, but it's not clear that that will work again. Late on Monday, Kai Fang, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee at the PBOC, warned that emergency rate cuts would not be enough. He said, Fang joins a growing chorus of economists insisting on direct transfer payments to consumers in order to support spending. This option has been controversial with senior Politburo figures, however, and so far Beijing has ignored the suggestion. Many have suggested instead that tax and fee cuts for companies were the most direct, fair, and efficient way to stimulate the economy. Senior Party members also have a history of warning against the Of course, the concern is that the underlying problem might be a simple lack of capacity. China's government resources are distributed through numerous local governments. These governments typically raise funding through land sales, but with the property sector in trouble, this line of revenue is less viable. There has also been an ongoing dispute between the central party and provincial governments. During the turmoil of the last few years, Beijing has been reluctant to come to the aid of overindebted regional governments. Estimates vary wildly due to the large amount of off -balance sheet liabilities, but Goldman Sachs analysts think there could be as much as $13 trillion in debt held by local governments. China's GDP is around $17 trillion annually, so there could be significantly less fiscal space for stimulus than the publicly disclosed figures imply. Liu Chao, professor of finance at Peking University, said, Now, as you might imagine, overarching all of these economic problems are the very real political considerations. Tensions around the rule of President Xi Jinping have started to come to a head around the financial turmoil of the last two years. For the first time, we've seen evidence of open protests against Xi on the mainland. Now, of course, it's impossible to tell how widespread the antipathy towards Xi is, but it's hard not to view at least some of the events of the last couple years as cracks emerging. And so really where we're left to do a very brief summary is a situation in which a set of challenges are converging all at the same time. And they're a set of challenges not necessarily easily solved by old techniques. Officials are caught between wanting to run back the old playbook and trying to figure out if there's a new playbook that'll work better. Michael Pettis again wrote, What got China into this mess has been over a decade of massive amounts of investment in unnecessary infrastructure and empty apartments. If this investment had been economically justified, rising debt would have been more than matched by rising productive capacity and GDP, which means local government debt would have never become the problem it has clearly become. I understand why many policy advisors are so worried about China's economic slowdown, that they are turning again to the old policies that boosted GDP in the past. But more of the same won't get China out of the mess that more of the same got it into. Now, of course, outside of China, the big questions are how a Chinese recession or slowdown or even financial crisis will impact the global economy. One thing that some observers have noted is that we haven't had a normal business cycle recession in so long. In other words, we haven't had a downturn precipitated by anything other than a financial crisis for so long that we kind of don't know how to handle it. We don't really have a playbook for what to do with it, at least not one that's been updated recently. To some extent, I wonder if the not knowingness of the situation is contributing to the anxiety around it, but as with any macro topic, it is an extremely dense, complex, nuanced intertwined set of issues. And so the best we can do is keep trying to keep track of it and recontextualize as new events teach us more about what's happening. Hope this was a helpful primer, at least a little bit on what's going on. Until next time, peace.
Bloomberg Radio New York - Recording Feed
Monitor Show 23:00 08-05-2023 23:00
"Investment advisors switch to interactive brokers for lowest cost global trading and turnkey custody solutions. No ticket charges and no conflicts of your interests at ibkr .com slash ria. Can't even board his superior. Thanks Ava. That's Bloomberg legal reporter Ava Bennie Morrison. This is Bloomberg Law on Bloomberg Radio. I'm June Grosso. Stay with us. Today's top stories and global business headlines are coming up right now. The city of Atlanta is announcing road closures ahead of an expected indictment against former president Donald Trump. More from Liz Kennedy. While former president Trump pleaded not guilty to criminal charges in DC on Thursday for his alleged efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election, the Fulton County Sheriff's Office announced that it would be shutting down several streets in and around the county courthouse and government center. Beginning Monday, August 7th through Friday, August 18th, roads will be closed ahead of an expected indictment by the office of Fulton County DA Fannie Willis into Trump's alleged attempts to overturn Georgia's 2020 election. Things are calm now in New York's Union Square after a social media influencer's giveaway sparked chaos. It started when Twitch streamer Kai Sanat said his fans have to show up to get some giveaways. The impromptu giveaway for 300 PlayStation video game consoles caused thousands of people to show up. New federal data shows US employment rose by 187 ,000 jobs in July. The monthly jobs report also shows the unemployment rate remained essentially unchanged at 3 .5%.
Bloomberg Radio New York - Recording Feed
Monitor Show 19:00 08-04-2023 19:00
"With no fees or minimums and no overdraft fees, banking with Capital One is the easiest decision in the history of decisions. Kind of like choosing Derek Jeter as the pinch hitter for your baseball team. Jeter, you're in! We need a home run! I'll give it a try. I've swung a bat once or twice. That's out of here! Yep, even easier than that. With no fees or minimums and no overdraft fees, is it even a decision? That's banking reimagined. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. See capitalone .com slash bank for details. Capital One and A member FDIC. Which is not consistent with the inflation target. And that was Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England with Bloomberg's Francine Lacroix. And that's it for this edition of Bloomberg Best. I'm Ed Baxter. And I'm Denise Pellegrini. This is Bloomberg. Now stay with us. Top stories and global business headlines are coming up right now. Broadcasting 24 hours a day at Bloomberg .com and the Bloomberg Business Act. This is Bloomberg Radio. Things seem to be calming down and crowds have dispersed in New York's Union Square after a social media influencer's giveaway sparked chaos. It started when Twitch streamer Kai Sanat said his fans have to show up to get some video giveaways. Final time saying this. Anybody who's just coming in to stream, Friday, 4 o 'clock, Union Square Park at 4 o 'clock. Me and Phantom are giving away PCs, gaming chairs, PS5s, gift cards. The impromptu giveaway for 300 PlayStation video game consoles caused thousands of people to show up. Police say Sanat is in charge.
Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal
"kai" Discussed on Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal
"I appreciate your time and your expertise. Thank you, Kai.
America First with Sebastian Gorka Podcast
Why Chris Kohls Wanted to Review the Original "Karate Kid"
"Chris Cole's welcome back. It's been a while. Yeah, it has actually, not for the listener, or the viewer, but for us it has because we shot these in a weird order. It has it feels like a really long time, but it's so fun to get back into it, and what a great movie to do so with Karate Kid a classic. The first in a franchise, cartoons remakes, you name it now a new TV show Cobra Kai a spin off. You chose this movie, why did you choose it, Chris? Well, you know, this is one of my childhood favorites. I think it's my brother's was my brother's favorite movie for many, many years. And it's just one of these films where when you're a kid, you know, it's an underdog story. It's obviously it's like one of the quintessential underdog stories in history. And underdog stories have existed since the dawn of time. But I don't think they ever made one quite like this, and then once they made Karate Kid, I don't know if everybody remembers this. I was born in 79. So when this movie came out, I was about four years old. But it was a phenomenon. I mean, it was sort of in the same way Beverly Hills cop was. This may have even been bigger because although it didn't do as well as at the box office, this was a movie for kids and at least kids of my generation, everybody just loved Karate Kid. People wanted to take karate, Japanese culture became more interesting to people and this movie just changed American culture. It was a really, really big deal. They did the underdog story better than probably anybody else ever except for probably rocky, obviously. What's the connection? The connection of course is the same director. Yes, same guy who did rocky John Alvin also directed this one. He was accused of making basically rocky with karate for kids, so basically it's a ripoff of his own movie.
Epicenter
John Letey: KYVE Decentralised and Accessible Data Storage
"John, tell us a little bit about yourself and how you got to be here. Of course. So yes, I know I'm John. I'm the cofounder and CTO of Kai. A good place to start is probably like how I got into crypto. So come from more of an academic background doing a lot of research. Actually was doing a lot of research in AI, which now is like a hot topic, but I'm quite deep into crypto now. So I came from the academic side of things. In 2019, I was doing an internship for London based startup. Actually kind of touched on data there a little bit because what we were doing there. And again, this is when enterprise blockchain like the thing. And so basically we were building an enterprise blockchain based off of Ethereum that was dealing with sensor data. At some point. Exactly. So it was like my first interaction with smart contracts with Ethereum with data involved in the mix there. It was loads of fun. Kind of fell out of it though after that. That was my first interaction with crypto. But when I really got heads down to crypto, I was actually during the COVID lockdown. So 2020 start of it summertime ish. And kind of by chance fell onto RE and just like discovered it. And what fascinated me about are we actually right now everyone kind of just assumes the data is permanent. When you have photos and whatnot on your phone, you just assume that it's permanent, right? But in reality, it's actually not. You know, maybe you have an I call it backup or something like that. Again, very work too, but in the end, data is not actually permanent. And so it was kind of a cool realization for me. I was like, um, actually, this is a very niche problem that they're solving, and really fell in love with the concept of it. Of course, you know, I'm a huge history nerd as well, so that also kind of fascinating to me about permanently storing everything. So yeah, so like joined the community, I was actually one of like the first community developers like really just like building lots of random cool stuff and are we.
Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal
"kai" Discussed on Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal
"I got my brackets done just in time. The men's NCAA basketball tournament tips off tomorrow, the women go on Friday, but a man all the bright lights and buzzer beaters, lingers the messy world of name image likeness for college athletics. Bruce schoenfeld. He's an author and contributor to The New York Times Magazine, wrote not too long ago about how those NIL deals are changing the economics of college athletics. Bruce, welcome to the program. Thanks, Kai. Good to be here. Let's get the lay of the land here on name image likeness. What is the current state of play? Flux. It's a complicated situation because the current lack of restrictions were sort of thrust onto colleges with no warning and the going on two years since then have basically been a real-time reaction to all of a sudden having your athletes be able to do in any extreme something they weren't able to do at all before. With no guardrails and no guidance. So who's in charge? I mean, is there anybody keeping an eye on this? I mean, you and I are keeping an eye on it, but it's just people like us. Unfortunately, the only entities that really could regulate this are the NCAA, which in its infinite wisdom chose not to, and Congress, which is Congress. Enough said there. So look, this is fundamentally an economic problem, right? Because while college sports are a multi-billion dollar business, there are only so many bazillion dollars and now the pies are having to be split. Talk about that a little bit. You know, there are many unintended consequences to this. I think everybody felt that it was a good idea, the problem there is that unlimited amount of money that's coming in is coming in from sponsors and boosters who were already using it in ways that were helping to sustain all the rest of college sports. And now that money is all going to the quarterbacks and the running backs and the point guards and the power forwards to the detriment of all the other sports that needed to survive. What happens then to the rest of any given schools, maybe non revenue sports, but also, you know, second tier ish kind of sports. I mean, is there are they not getting any money now? Well, you know, it remains to be seen what happens. The funding mechanism for those sports is through the athletic department. The athletic department gets its revenue from a handful of ways. Television contracts, ticket sales, and boosters. That money now, instead of coin for the swimming pool, the best thing I can do and do on behalf of my university is to go get that prep quarterback. Now, putting aside for a moment that one of the few restrictions on this is you're not supposed to be using it for recruiting. Everyone's doing that. And that is money that has to come from somewhere and that was doing other work. It kind of sounds not sustainable, Bruce. It isn't sustainable, and that's kind of one of the good things in that everybody in the ecosystem agrees that something has to change. The problem is there's not a lot of agreement on how it should change. So we go back to the beginning, what's the current state? It's just in flux. It keeps changing. Week after week based on new developments. So look, for all the flux and the murkiness and the pain, you know, sort of that's coming from this. Do you suppose this is a necessary step to get to the point where number one everybody recognizes that college sports, especially big time college sports, are actually oh look a business and B, we figure out how to make it function as a business. You know, a lot of athletic directors felt that the old system wasn't working. And they were headed for an economic problem even apart from their immunization of athletes that there needed to be changes. And maybe the answer long term is that not every school will have every sport that each school may have a couple of big time sports and not much else or it may play out in completely different ways. The problem is no one has any idea. Frequent contributor to The New York Times magazine
Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal
"kai" Discussed on Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal
"Zone today, Silicon Valley bank, it's demise. What it means and what happens now. Our reporters coming up with some of the details we start though with deep ready. He's at Politico here today for a non Friday review of where things stand. Hey. Hey Kai. All right, so now that we are past the deja vu all over again because as we were talking about before the gong sounded, there was a little bit of that on Friday. Let me get you to the first thing I want to discuss. Two 1008, this is not that elaborate. This is absolutely not September 2008. I think we can clear that up. This is not a collapse. This is not a freefall in the economy. But there are other dates that we can think about. And we have been thinking about and over the weekend with other reporters and editors, we were all saying, is this march of 2008 when bear Stearns was rescued, was absorbed, fell apart, was absorbed by JP JPM and the federal government. Was this August of 2007 when we saw the first credit crisis cracks appear. And those are not dates you want to even be talking about either. Obviously this is different. This is even though it's exactly 15 years to the week since that moment in March of 2008. This will be its own. This will be the SVB issue that not only changes banking for generations, but also I think we'll reframe how we think about the role of government yet again in huge chunks of the economy. Say more about that, you use the word rescue, others are using the word bailout. There is a very important distinction and it applies to the depositors versus shareholders, talk about that a little bit. Who is being saved here, the shareholders are gone, the unsecured bondholders are gone. The board is gone. The executives are gone. They're all gone and they get what they deserve here. The real question here is, what should depositors, whether they're Silicon Valley startups or even small businesses? What should they have been expecting here from regulators? What do you think of when you put money into your bank that you're going to be able to get your cash? Not in silly investments. But in your bank, just cashing in the bank. And everybody assumes it's safe and the government made the decision here that you can't have a functioning economy. If you don't have that assumption. But there have been limits on deposit insurance for a reason because it costs money to do these things. And it was period of 72 hours to have the federal government without passing any new laws without having any public debate, essentially announce that those deposit limits are not really operative anymore. It's just fundamentally just a huge sea change in how we think about bank regulation and what that leaves regulators to do, which is to tighten up oversight over everyone and everything going forward, you don't want to be embarrassed again. And that is going to have an effect on businesses. It's going to have an effect. Obviously, on banks. But on everyone else in the risk aversion that comes up in a moment like this, suggests there's more to come in the ramifications, even if it's not a fall 2008 crisis. There will surely be congressional hearings, progressives in the Congress are already pushing for more regulation. Do you expect actually Congress to do anything or is this going to be the fed and the banking regulators sort of doing it on their own volition? The lesson from 2008 is that the lawmakers who are elected do not actually want to make these decisions. They did not want to make them in tarp in passing a bailout. They do not want to make them now. They passed a law that leaves it to the regulators to get beaten up over it, and that is what they're going to do. Now you kind of hope that when you see all of what's happened in markets and you see cheering in stock markets and you see all the crypto Bros who have been clowning around being anti government and then crypto value surge from government intervention, you got to scratch your head and think what on earth is going on here. What is this entire sector? How did all of this happen? There will be hearings. There will be screaming. There will be all the things to come. But this is the decision that has been made 15 years ago to leave it to the unelected officials to make these decisions to save the economy. And honestly, I think we all sit and watch this thing and just sit in absolute terror of what this would look like if this actually required the politics of today to resolve what we were dealing with over the weekend. Super quick, the Federal Reserve meets next week. Before any of this, everybody had said, oh, yeah, it's going to be 50 basis points half percentage point. What do you think? You know, we've been talking for how long about what's going to break. What's going to break when you and nobody knew, there's just this old saying in economics from an economist late economist Rudy dornbush, things take longer to happen than you think they will. And then they happen faster than you thought they could. And this is the thing. It takes so long for higher interest rates to create anything to break anything in a way that you're like, why is this taking so long after bludgeoning the economy, and here it is, and this is the effect. The fed obviously knows that they can't do anything that shakes the economy even more right now. They will almost certainly not be going 50 basis points in a rate increase, but take their time and try to figure out what the fallout is because it's going to take months to discover that. So deep ready at Politico on a not Friday, thanks. Thanks, Kai. Take care. Wall street today, this is firmly from the silver lining file, but traders are betting just as Steve said the collapse of SV meme means the fed's going to ease up a little bit on interest rates. Who knows? Details numbers. You know the drill. All right, so let's start digging into the details of how we got here. How did we wind up with banks failing so spectacularly and whose fault is it? The Federal Reserve said today it's going to do a review of the supervision of SVB. And President Biden said this morning you might have heard that he wants a full accounting of what happened, including what effect a relaxing of some of the Dodd Frank banking regulations that were Washington's response to the 2008 financial crisis as he was talking about, what effect those rollbacks might have had. Unfortunately, the last administration rolled back some of these requirements. I'm going to ask Congress and the banking regulators to strengthen the rules for banks to make it less likely this kind of bank failure would happen again. Marketplace is Kimberly Adams explains what happened and why it matters now. The original Dodd Frank law said that once a bank got bigger than $50 billion in assets, it would be subject to additional rules and oversight. Then came 2018 and the economic growth regulatory relief and consumer protection act, AKA the Dodd Frank rollback. Aaron lockwood teaches political science at UC Irvine. In 2018, the law said, oh, now that only applies to banks with more than $250 billion in assets. And it turns out Silicon Valley bank at the time it actually even last week fell under that threshold. Even though it was the 16th largest bank in the country, Dennis Kelleher is CEO of better markets, which lobbied against the rollback. Before the law was passed, banks the size of Silicon Valley bank would have been required to have more stress tests more frequently. And crucially to maintain more liquidity to, you know, help out in case of a bank run. There is definitely an I told you so moment for this, Carter Doherty is with Americans for financial reform. Congress chose and the regulators ran with it to peel back rules that would have given us a better chance of
Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal
"kai" Discussed on Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal
"Store Leland Michigan is the place. This final note on the way out today offered because if we stop talking about this stuff, we are going to stop talking about it. The unemployment rate in this economy last month, as you know, 3.6% overall for black Americans, 5.7%. That is up from 5.4% much as with the overall population though, that's because more people came back into the labor force. All right, we are going on a Friday here that was your moment of economic context. It's a calendar update, really. March 21st and 22nd. What's that, you ask? Why those dates Kai? Next fed meeting, that's why. Our theme music was composed by BJ leader minutes a good thing I use myself in this job, huh? Marketplace is executive producer as Nancy farga, about a Tam is the executive editor Neil Scarborough is the vice president and general manager. I'm Kai Rizzo, we will see you on Monday, have yourselves a great weekend, all right? This is 8 p.m.. Hi, I'm John Kim, the host of the angry therapist podcast. I'm a therapist who went through my own rebirth many years ago and I've been documenting my journey ever since. I believe in casual over clinical with you instead of at you, I come unrehearsed on purpose because self help doesn't have to be so complicated. Our podcast episodes are short and easy to jump into. I encourage you to check out the angry therapist podcast now whenever you listen to podcasts.
Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal
"kai" Discussed on Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal
"Coming up. You're very right. I did call it highway robbery. Last year's supply chain was kind of like the wild wild west. But first, let's do the numbers. Yeah, the wawa is, again, down industrials down 5 43, 1.6%, 32,254. The NASDAQ down two 37 2%, 11,003 three 8 the S&P 500 sliced off 73 points, about 1.8%, 39 and 18 banks tumbled ahead of that key jobs port I was talking about JPMorgan Chase reversed 5.4% Bank of America backed up 6.2% in a cost saving move General Motors is offering buyouts to what it says is a majority of its white collar employees shares down nearly 5%. General Electric on the other hand picked up 5.2% after firming its 2023 guidance for revenue growth earnings per share and cash flow, that is quite something if you've been following the saga of maybe the original American conglomerate. When you announce you're going to wind down operations or share price generally tanks such is the case for silvergate capital which slid 42% today the struggling crypto lender earlier posted a $1 billion net loss in its fourth quarter bond prices went up, yield on the ten year Tino thus fell 3.91% you're listening to marketplace. Hey everybody, it's Kai, you know, when you listen to marketplace, you hear economic stories and realities from all communities, especially those often underrepresented in financial news. That's because marketplace is a nonprofit public service newsroom and it's our mission to be inclusive and shed light on the ways that our economy isn't. And you can be part of that mission by making a gift to marketplace today. Don't eat now and marketplace dot org slash donate that is marketplace dot org slash donate. This is marketplace. I'm Kai riz doll U.S. benchmark crude oil, West Texas intermediate, about $75 a barrel today. For global benchmark Brent, North Sea about $81 a barrel. The Russian benchmark, its most exported grade of oil known as urals, right around $60 a barrel, a substantial discount or penalty pick your term as a result of western sanctions on Moscow. Thing is that $60 price point for Russian oil is right near a three month high, and that has oil traders and oil policy makers alike, wondering what's going on. Marketplace is lily jamali covers energy for us. The war in Ukraine has scrambled the market for Russian oil, says research analyst Pavel Milton of Raymond James. The pool of buyers. Immediately dried up after the start of the war. And that was before two western measures aimed at punishing Russia, an EU ban on Russian crude, and at $60 price cap spearheaded by the U.S.. There are big legal and logistical risks involved in buying Russia's urals grade oil. Voltron says as long as the war goes on. Overall screwed, will continue to be heavily discounted compared to just about everything else in the global oil market. Since the war began Russia has shifted some crude exports to Asia, with much of that discounted oil landing in India, turkey, and China. Bill smeed, chairman of smead capital management, says part of the recent surge in recent crude prices stems from China's emergence from pandemic lockdowns. That had kept the demand for oil down for a while. But now it's picking up sharply. And the pool of buyers in China appears to be growing, says David fife, chief economist at Argus media. Until recently, a noticeable share of a kind of Russian crude from Siberia was going to China's small independent processors in the so called teapot refining sector. They've been the main purchaser and in many ways the main beneficiary of cheaper Russian crude over the last 8 to ten months. Now, larger Chinese refiners are getting interested, driving prices higher, he says. But few things affect oil prices like a threat to slash supply, which Russia has promised to do. For March, they have unilaterally decided to cut their crude oil production by half a million barrels a day. The extent to which they'll follow through could have a big effect on where Russian oil prices go from here. I'm lily jamali
Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal
"kai" Discussed on Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal
"In Baltimore, I'm Amy Scott in for Kai riz doll. It's Wednesday, March 1st. Good to have you with us. It's been close to a year now since the fed started nudging up interest rates to try to slow down inflation. The idea is by making borrowing more expensive for people and businesses, demand falls and prices stabilize. So it's maybe a little surprising to learn from the federal deposit insurance corporation this week that banks have not seen borrowing slow down. Overall, the FDI sees quarterly survey of banks found that total loan balances rose from the previous quarter, and over the previous year, marketplaces Justin Ho explains. The FDIC found that loan balances increased across the board. Consumer loans, commercial and industrial loans, even mortgages, Peter Alden, as CEO of bay state savings bank in Massachusetts. It's a little surprising. We thought we'd come through yearend and into the first quarter with loan demand based on the higher interest rates decreasing. But Alden says inflation is pushing business clients to borrow so they can pay more for inventory. Consumers are using home equity loans to pay off their credit card debt. They can move from a credit card rate of say over ten or 11% down to a 6 and a half interest rate on an equity loan. Businesses can justify paying higher interest rates if the projects they borrow for pay off. David Reilly, CEO of sunrise banks in Minnesota, says a lot of commercial real estate developers have been borrowing more lately. They feel that they can raise rents and stay competitive. And so the math still works. The FDIC says loan making could slow down if the global economy stumbles. But Dominic Miata, CEO of optus bank in South Carolina, says the economy in his region is booming. Everything from real estate to restaurants to new businesses, the interest rates have not seemed to damper that appetite for growth and access to credit at all. Me artin says borrowers are asking about interest rates. Many are trying to get creative. Where you may have a three or 5 year fixed rate loan at, let's say, 6 and a half or even 7%. But then you make it 5 years from now, you make it adjustable. The idea is to save some money if interest rates fall in the long run. I'm Justin Ho, from marketplace. On Wall Street today, markets were mixed. We'll have the details when we do
Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal
"kai" Discussed on Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal
"In Los Angeles, I'm Kai, Roosevelt, is Monday to day the 27th of February. It is always to have your long, everybody. We bring you at the top of the program today from the national association of realtors, the pending home sales index, a measure of contracts signed to buy homes to find here as existing single-family homes, condos, and co ops. We will get actually later on in the program to what makes a home a home, but to the housing news of the day, the pending home sales index was up 8.1% in January that is to say the second straight month of more contracts signed. And the number of existing homes on the market is improving as well, even though by historical measures, it is still really, really low. And that tight inventory is bad news for would be home buyers, but you know who it is, good news for? Home builders, marketplaces Matt Levin has this one. There's always about a zillion reasons not to move, renting that unwieldy truck fumbling with that weird packing tape dispenser that never works. And for homeowners who refinance during the pandemic housing boom, reason one zillion and one is pretty compelling. Rafe dad address it covers the home building industry for Bank of America. So over 80% of current homeowners now have a mortgage rate under 4%, which makes the prospect of financing at today's rate of 6 and a half percent on a 30 year fix. Not so enticing. The incentive for existing home inventory to come on the market is really, really low right now. So we'd expect the existing homes sales remain under pressure and pushing more people into the new home market. The home builder Toll Brothers reported new home sales last month were better than January sales for most of the last two decades. New homes are gaining popularity, partly because the cost of fixing up a fixer upper keeps rising says Jessica allows at the national association of realtors. 41 percent of people who purchase a new property are actually doing so because they want to avoid the renovations. Even with home builders benefiting from low inventory now, they'd much prefer to see lower mortgage rates, demand would be much higher for both old and new homes. And with rates so high now, many of the people buying brand new homes are those that don't have to borrow in the first place. Rob deets is with the national association of home builders. Generationally, that buyer is going to be a gen xer. Who's in the peak earning years. It's going to be a baby boomer who maybe can purchase with all cash. First time home buyers? Well, how long can you live in a fixer upper without fixing it up? I'm Matt Levin for marketplace. On Wall Street today, traders kind of put last week's disappointments behind them. Kinda, they sent all three major indices a little higher, kinda. We'll have the details when
Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal
"kai" Discussed on Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal
"It Baltimore, I'm Amy Scott in for Kai riz doll. It's Wednesday, February 15th. Good to have you with us. People went shopping again last month. That's the big takeaway from today's retail sales report from the commerce department. After falling in November and December of last year, sales rose 3% in January. And that was pretty much across the board. Auto sales, bar and restaurant tabs, furniture, electronics, clothing, all got a boost. Marketplace is Mitchell Hartman, has the story. Inflation and recession worries caused consumers to hold tight to their money in November and December. They had done most of their holiday shopping in October, front loaded the holiday season a little bit, and then really pulled back in those two months. That's Kayla brune at polling firm morning consult. But what happened at the same time was that inflation started to slow real incomes actually picked up over that period. A lot of workers have been getting raises. People on social security got a big cost of living increase. So in January, consumers had more money to spend. Retailers, meanwhile, had a lot more stuff to sell. Because supply chains have mostly cleared up, says Arun sundaram, research. Retailers, their shelves are fully stocked. They have the products that consumers want, which they now have to move off their shelves fast. A lot of retailers have been facing excess inventory issues. We've been seeing discounts and markdowns to try to entice consumers to make these purchases. Consumers are shifting how and where they spend in response to inflation, says sunderam, he's doing it himself. You're two years ago back then I was definitely shopping more at Whole Foods and also ordering out more. Now I'm cooking more at home. I've been going to Walmart more. The U.S. consumer is being whipsawed by rising prices and fears of recession on one side, rising wages and strong job growth on the other. Marco and Columbia business school says it's hard to predict how they'll react. The vagaries of consumer behavior is a black box. In January, at least that black box said, what the heck? Let's go shopping. I'm Mitchell Hartman for marketplace. On Wall Street, traders ended the day in a buying mood. We'll have details. When we do
Mark Levin
Ketanji Brown Jackson Supported 'Wokeism' as Early as Kindergarten
"Of Georgetown day school community 7 years ago Patrick and I are a husband I guess Witness the transformative power of a rigorous progressive education that is dedicated to fostering critical thinking independence and social justice In just what does the Georgetown day schools progressive education quote unquote and dedication to social justice look like in practice Well according to their website during the time she was a board member a board member It means events like the transgender day of visibility that urge students to quote use your voice your platform your network to communicate your support for transgender rights The trans community and transgender people particularly trans youth and black trans women are most often an egregiously targeted Wow Talks about abolitionist teaching centering queer voices hosted by abolitionist teaching network and including Kai growths of woke kindergarten I don't know what this is but you get the drift right
Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal
Limits On Toilet Paper And Cleaning Supplies Are Back At Costco
"Go to costco or your local big box. Perhaps you got toilet paper on your list. Maybe some water cleaning supplies as well. But when you go to load up your car you see the signs that say two per customer or whatever. The limit is not as you might think. Thanks to reprise of the apocalyptic stockpiling early on in this thing. It's a supply chain again. But as marketplace's amanda peach reminds us limits on how much consumers can buy can backfire on retailers. Trying to sell it when there was a run on certain products in pandemic early days. The explanation was simple. Basically consumers freaked out. Ken boyer studies operations management at ohio state university and people heard. There's gonna be a shortage so they went to buy more but shortages now are much more about shipping delays and other supply chain constraints boyer says take toilet paper even if it's manufactured in the us the chemicals to make it might come from china or thailand. They're sitting on a boat. Offshore that becomes a delayed the toilet paper manufacturers sometimes. The shortage is in packaging or containers like cans for soda or bottles for water in melbourne. Florida alley strands. Saw a sign at the grocery store. At limiting the number of cases of water customers could purchase to to literally. My first thought was hurting. Strands checked her phone. No hurricane warnings so she thought what's going on with bottled water. She bought two cases and had her son. Do the same. You drink the bottle of water. But he was getting his shopping part for me. Because is there going to be a run on water. And that's why stores have to be careful about signaling. Shortages with product limits on we realize goods are scarce. They become more valuable to us. Care me. Burke is a behavioral economist with the university of southern california. I might not new toy right now. But i know toilet. Paper is scarce. So i may go stock up on it as much as i can at the moment. In burke says that unnecessary purchasing can add pressure to supply chains at exactly the wrong time. I'm amanda pitcher for
Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal
Fed Considers Tapering Bond Purchases as Economy Grows
"So much talk about so little time and that is not. I promise you just me trying to get to the good stuff. It actually has been a busy week. Genus malik is at the new york. Times neil richardson is at adp. Hey you too. I kinda hake so neil and let me start with you I want to discuss a little bit. chair powell and his press conference this week in which he said In literally so many words that the fed has made that substantial further progress Or is very close to it to start to reduce its bond buying program the taper He said we've more than gotten there and inflation as we've talked about many times on this program not quite yet on jobs and i guess my question is we've been told it's going to take on another twelve months or a year or year and a half for the for the job market to recover. Why do you think the fed is gonna taper now. Well they are going to reduce their bond buying for one reason and one reason only they wanna get bang for the buck. They're spending a hundred twenty billion dollars a month on bonds. They wanna see some effect in early on. When everything was in chaos in the financial markets and bonds that were considered safe started acting very risky ways. That were unpredictable. That bond buying helped stabilize everything. It was a success story but bang has faded into a whimper. It's not really having a lot of effet particularly in the jobs. Market that has bottlenecks. That are more amenable to fiscal policy in action than monetary policy. Junior you're on that You're on that video. Call with chair. Powell you're probably paying closer attention than i was. But i don't think anywhere. He said the word transitory about inflation. Did that strike you at all. You know. I think it is interesting. I think there's been a real short of decision. Among monetary policymakers to start being a bit more cautious in the way that they talk about inflation either they still say that there are these temporary forces pushing inflation up. There's no reason to believe that they're going to last forever. But i think we've all become a lot more modest about how long we think temporary is going be you know because it's earlier in the year. They thought these these temporary dislocations we're gonna fade within a few months now. It's like pretty obvious that they're not gonna fade until we're well into next year and i think they're real questions about you. Know how how quickly supply chains in particular are going to get back to any kind of normal
90.3 KAZU
"kai" Discussed on 90.3 KAZU
"Kai raised all the fifth largest economy in the world. If we counted California as a separate country wraps up a big election tomorrow, Governor Gavin Newsom faces a recall just in case you hadn't heard, and with all the attention on whether Newsom is going to be needing a moving truck Some other important news might get overlooked because tomorrow is also on the Census Bureau is going to release poverty Statistics for 2020, which I mentioned. Because last year California had the highest poverty rate in the country marketplace Matt Levin explains how the richest state in the union could also be the poorest. The Census Bureau came out with a better way to measure poverty a decade ago. When that adjust for the fact that say, living in L. A is a lot more expensive than living in Jackson, Mississippi. And even though California has one of the strongest social safety nets in the country, it has one of the highest poverty rates 17% in 2019. And it's really housing costs outweigh in the added benefit from social policy programmes. Caroline Danielson is with the Public Policy Institute of California, even with record high unemployment. She expects last year's big boost in federal assistance to reduce California's poverty rate, But struggling Californians may benefit less than those in other states. There's also the factor of immigration, so Children are typically eligible for benefits. But sometimes their parents are not. California has the highest share of immigrants in the country, and many of those families live in the Central Valley huge agricultural region that's often overshadowed by the Bay Area in L. A. Chris Haney is director of the California Budget and Policy Center were a big state. So you know, in some respects, we have parts of the country that will look like the wealthiest of wealthy places, but we also have places that will be among the poorest. Hundreds of thousands of low income Californians have left the state in recent years. Michael fled, is CEO of the L, A regional food bank, he says relocating is a frequent topic among those who wait for hours outside the South LA headquarters, but Just picking up and you know, moving to another city isn't necessarily going to be something that's successful because rant wise, other parts of the country are starting to look more and more like California. I'm Matt Levin for marketplace. The temperature in Austin, Texas, today mid to upper eighties. Partly cloudy, a far far cry from the freezing the ice storm that took down that state's power grid. It killed hundreds of people and left millions more without power For days back at the beginning of the year. Over the summer, the Texas Legislature did pass a couple of laws designed to make sure the same thing never happens again. But whether they actually got their marketplaces Andy Euler covers all things Texas for us, Texas is exceptional in many ways when it joined the union. The state won the right to divide into five territories If it wanted to, and in the 19 thirties, Texans decided they didn't want to join either of the country's electricity grids that one of the East or the one in the West. Texas leaders decided they wanted to have their own grids. They wouldn't be subjected to federal regulation of electricity here. Daniel Cohen at Rice University in Houston, says the state's decision to block the feds from getting up in its business still has consequences. We weren't imagining. How vulnerable we would make ourselves by not being able to bring in power when we need it, the most like it.
Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal
Wholesale Prices Hit Record 8.3% In August
"It's been kind of a hodgepodge week to be honest for those of us. Whose specialty is this economy here to help. Sort out are k. davidson. She's at the wall street journal. Also brian chung-hee's at yahoo finance hayatou. So kate i'm going to start with you and with his observation of the news of the day. The producer price index came out this morning. That is of course Prices at the wholesale level up eight point three percent in a year. Do you suppose anybody at the fed or more accurately at the white house walked over to j pals office and said hey. Jay highlight transitory. Now pal well. I don't know about the the white house. Because they they're sticking to the transitory story They they put out some new forecasts. I think it was lat late last month. Essentially showing that they they still think prices are coming down this year by a lot So they they more than doubled. Their forecast for inflation. This year back in february they thought it would be just a little above two percent now. They're at four point eight for the year. That's fourth quarter over compared to the fourth quarter of last year But you know even to get to that point as you pointed out. Prices are so high in consumer prices last month or in july rather consumer prices were five point four percent over the previous twelve months. And that's the highest. They'd been On an annual basis since two thousand eight so their high and to get to the white house forecast they'd have to come down a lot. So i think that they are feeling the political heat over rising prices right. Republicans are really hammering them on this. But i think that they economists there and even at the fed will find out on a couple of weeks. The fed might mark up their forecasts but so far they continue to think that these price pressures will fade
Make Me Smart with Kai and Molly
Beached Rat Carcasses Indicate Mass Rodent Death During Ida
"Gotha missed today. The headline says beached rat carcasses indicate mass rodent death during ida experts. Say they were talking about the number of beach of of rat carcasses that have been found along the beaches of new york city since that storm came through. And here's what bobby corn corrigan. A longtime pest control expert and former rhode intelligence for the new york city department of health. Set with this with this particular storm. Any rats that were in the sewers were either crushed by the current or swept out into the rivers now rat populations in new york city number typically in the millions right so i tweeted out this story today and then i got a bunch of responses along these lines which is peace from the cdc from a number of years ago that says rats can swim or wade in the water for up to three days without drowning. They like to swim a very good at it. Iraq survived being flushed down the toilet and might even get back into the same building by swimming back the same way
The TWIML AI Podcast
Exploring AI With Kai-Fu Lee
"All right everyone. I am here with kaifu. Lee chi food is chairman and ceo of innovation ventures the former president of google china and author of the new york times bestseller superpowers. And we're here to talk about his new book which will be released next week. A twenty forty one kaifu. Welcome to the tuomo. Ai podcast thank you thank them. It is great to have an opportunity to speak with you. I'm looking forward to digging in and talking more about the book before we do though i'd love to have you share a little bit about your background and how you came to work in the field of ai. Sure i started With my excitement in back in nineteen seventy nine. When i started my undergraduate at columbia i worked on language and vision at columbia and then i went to carnegie mellon for my team at which develops the first speaker independent speech. Recognition system based on machine learning actually Some the earlier thesis in machine learning in nineteen aba. I also developed a computer program that the world's fellow champion is all in the eighties. Very early years after mike graduation from Cmu i talked there for two years than i joined apple and led a a lot of apples. Ai speech natural language and media efforts later joined sgi and then microsoft where i started microsoft research asia in beijing in nineteen ninety eight which kind of became one of the best. Tom research labs in asia. Later i joined google and ran google china for four years between two thousand and five in two thousand nine. We did do a little bit for how they i mostly was Really developing google's presence in china in two thousand nine. I left google and started my venture capital firm assign ovation ventures and at san ovation ventures we invest in the bow for the ai companies. We were about the earliest and probably invested in the most companies we invested in about seven unicorns in ai alone and with a few more Yet to come so they're excited to be in the era i it's Was not so hot during much of my career. But glad scooby with the catch. The recent wave and participate in it.
Make Me Smart with Kai and Molly
Mars Rover Apparently Retrieves First Rock Sample for Return to Earth
"Perseverance rover has collected. Its first rock sample. Oh yeah thoughts on perseverance. Well more importantly it's the first rock sample. That's going to be brought back right. That's the deal. So they drill a hole in iraq. They pulled it out and then through some you know orbital mechanics. Whatever they're going to get it back to earth which is just cray cray half full. Always send matt damon. I'm going yes. Yes yes wow. I'm not ducking guys like you say that's amazing that is actually
Make Me Smart with Kai and Molly
Starbucks Employees Start a Unionization Drive
"Unionization. Oh interesting starbucks isn't unidas. Subjects is not union and there are three stores in. I want to say upstate. New york where they have launched a unionization drive. I think so much has been made the past. I don't know ten twelve fifteen years of the benefits that you get at starbucks in how they'll do your healthcare if you're only x. Hours a week and they'll pay for college janson but but There are some scheduling issues. I think with starbucks and those things look you gotta you gotta take your people have unionization is what it takes then okay. I didn't know. Yeah definitely i mean. I think we're all seeing that. The degradation of worker rights that led to the wage stagnation of the last forty years and frankly is probably contributing to people not wanting to go back to jobs that have been historically kinda crappy for a really long time Unions may have their issues. But this is the type of thing that they're really that they're really good for
Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal
When the Effects of the Climate Crisis Hit Home
"Do you start with the economic effects of the weather and the climate in this country the past week or so hundreds of thousands of people without power along the gulf coast. They've had to evacuate and leave their property and their jobs behind the flooding last night along the east coast. More than twenty people killed in new york and new jersey and pennsylvania. The subway system the biggest and richest city in this country underwater literally. I'm sure you've seen the videos. The insurance claims shirley in the tens of billions of dollars the investment. That's going to be needed to manage and to adapt to the effects of climate. Change as we've seen this week. We're not ready sorting. As marketplace's amy scott reports with much of our housing stock nearly a third of homes in the us are at high risk of natural disasters. According to core logic and low income communities are especially vulnerable these homes haven't been updated haven't gotten consistent reinvestment rehabilitation retrofitting over the years khalil. Shaheed is a senior policy adviser with the natural resources defense council. He says there is federal funding. To help weather is homes by switching out single pane windows for sturdier double pane glass but shaheed says roof repair one of the most expensive and important fixes isn't eligible once the roof goes. And you know you get the wind damage and you get rain damage so it just really compounds. The severity of a storm. Like this one.
Make Me Smart with Kai and Molly
New York Times' Taylor Lorenz on the Creator Economy
"The wren's who covers tech culture and online creators for the new york times started doing this work at the atlantic. And i just loved every bit of it. She is also the author of the forthcoming book extremely online the rise of the online creator and creation of a new american dream. Taylor thanks so much for coming on. Yeah thanks for having me. So tell us about the economy parts of creator economy and what we mean when we say these terms yeah Well the term creator economy only emerged in the past year. I'm really the past nine months but the industry has been around for a lot longer. So you may have heard of the influencer economy or like the online celebrity world All of it refers to essentially people making money by building audiences an influence on the internet. And then monetize ing those audiences. So you can think of twitch. Streamers youtube stars instagram influencers. All of these people are part of the broader quote unquote creator economy or creators and influencers. The same thing yes. Creators influencers are the same thing and the word creator was actually coined in its modern usage by youtube. Back in twenty eleven He wrote a piece on this but when the marketing industry cold in the mid twentieth tens the word influencer became popular because it was really a way to talk about sort of multi-platform creators. So the word creator was so synonymous with youtube. Instagram irs. viner's wouldn't call themselves that So they sort of started calling themselves creators and influence right. They start calling themselves. Influencers influence was always the term sort of most popular throughout the mid twenty tense but in the past year as the tech industry has kind of embraced this whole world. It's flipped back to creator as as sort of preferred at platform agnostic term.
Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal
"kai" Discussed on Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal
"You know sometimes you make a promise with the best of intentions but then events just conspire against you. Such is the case today with me and this program and inflation been trying my darnedest not to overwhelm things with inflation stories. But we'll get the latest reading on the. I word tomorrow morning. When the bureau of labor statistics grace's us with the consumer price index for june. May as you might or might not remember showed biggest annual increase in consumer prices. Four point nine percent in thirteen years and here is why. I'm telling you this. Housing is part of the cpi consumer price index and housing. Prices have been rising like crazy as you know. So you think you might see that reflected in the monthly number but the shelter component of inflation as it's called has actually stayed pretty steady for the past decade marketplace's. Amy scott went to try to figure out why to understand how the b. l. s. measures housing inflation. I went straight to the source. I'm steve i'm an economist. And the information analysis. A section of the consumer price index program at the bureau of labor statistics has that for a government title. Reads job is to explain the cpi and the data behind it to the public. He says the goal of the cpi is to measure changes in the cost of living over time to do that. It tracks prices for a bunch of different things like gas groceries clothes and housing. The overall housing category includes furniture appliances and utilities even lodging away from home but the biggest component is what we pay for our primary residence. The price of rental housing is easy. The index looks at changes in monthly rents but most americans own their homes. And that's where it gets tricky when you purchase a home. A large aspect of that purchases is an investment aspect. It's not a consumption aspect and we are trying to measure the price change for consumption to do that. The bureau uses a calculation known as owners equivalent. Rent the idea. There is that if you're living in your home your cost of sort of consuming the shelter provided that at home is what you're forgoing by not renting it to somebody else. The cpi estimates owners equivalent rent by looking at actual rents for comparable homes in the same area but remember. Housing is just one item in that basket of goods and because it takes up a bigger chunk of most of our budgets it carries a bigger weight in the overall measure of inflation real rents and would be rents. Make up about a third of the cpi to come up with that weight the b. l. s. surveys us about how much we spend on the items in the basket including rant and for homeowners. That's where we have to ask this question if you were torrential house. How much can rent for seeing as how most homeowners probably don't spend a lot of time thinking about renting out their homes. They guess you may think all that guessing is why some economists have a problem with the way the cpi measures housing inflation is always around two point five percent regardless of economic conditions. Jiro yoshida is a business professor at penn state university. He says it's not the guesses. It's the hard numbers the ones based on actual rents that distort the inflation rate renters. Who stay in the same place for a long time. Typically only see small increases every year but when they move out rents often jump a lot for the next tenant. Yoshida's thinks the cpi has too few of those renters in the mix that appreciation rate tend to be underestimating the reality because that survey misses the huge adjustment between long term tenants yoshida and some colleagues created a different measure of housing inflation based on new leases and voila between april. And may we have eight point. Four percent annualized inflation that is significantly higher than two point five percent. Cpi rent and if you plugged that bigger housing number into the overall cpi inflation in may would have been nearly half a percent higher not a small thing if you're on social security and your cost of living increase is pegged to the cpi or if it determines your annual raise at work. The ls has tweaked. Its formula but not enough. Yoshida says and if you're wondering how all this measures up for the fed it uses a different index which yoshida says also underestimates housing inflation. But we've done enough for today. Maybe next time. I'm amy scott for marketplace final note on the way today saw this on. Cnbc data from the national association of colleges and employers paid internship pay it turns out the highest. It's ever been twenty dollars and seventy six cents an hour. That is the good news. Some are twenty twenty data by the way. The bad news is that fully. Forty percent of internships are still unpaid. All right. we gotta go. Here is your moment of economic context before we do. Though vaguely i word based but in a news you can use kind of way. Bond yields as we have mentioned a couple of times past couple of weeks have fallen quite a bit since inflation became a thing and people started talking about it back in february one way that decline manifests is in mortgage rates. Freddie mac says a thirty year fixed rate mortgage can be had on average at a rate of two point nine zero percent. that's the lowest rates of been since coincidentally february when inflation became a thing when people started talking about our daily production team includes unease. I mean andy corbin richard cunningham. Riyan horst sean mckenry blasios and minju park one last thing to do today that i meant to do on friday but honestly it kind of got away from me. We said goodbye last week to scott tong. after sixteen years with martin place. He opened our shanghai bureau back in the day. He has reported far and wide force. Ever since on virtually everything this program covers now is on to do something else. We wish him well of course and we'll miss him. I'm kai result. We will see you tomorrow. Everybody this is apn. Hey it's jed. Kim post a million bazillion million brazilian is a podcast for kids families. That helps dollars make more sense in each episode. We tackle the tricky questions that your kids have about money. Like how is it made. Is there a factory somewhere that makes it. Or what determines the price of pizza and we're back with all new episodes. That's more answers to the questions. Your kids wanna know thoughtful ones. The silly ones and the really hard. To answer one's million. Zillion listen wherever you get your podcast..
Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal
"kai" Discussed on Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal
"This final note on the way out the day in which women draw the short straw again saw this in bloomberg a study out of a couple of european universities and research centres into audio quality on video conferencing systems. And this is going right. Not all sounds it. Turns out that is not all frequencies carry equally on those platforms. Women's voices in particular. They wind up sounding expressive and thus less charismatic and persuasive than men's voices do because of course. That's the way the technology works. We're out of here but here is your moment of economic context in which el salvador leans hard into bitcoin. The granddaddy of crypto currencies is now legal tender in that country. As is the us dollar by the way regular listeners to this program we'll have heard the lamentations about bitcoins. Unpredictable volatility which i guess is redundant can't have predictable volatility. Anyway case in point the law passes. Bitcoin goes up five percent because armenia production team is. Brian allison drew justed. Jeff peters j. cbo leonid Thorpe point carlos throttle back a one minute. They're the ones coming in. So the rest of this don't have to. Because because because i'm kai ryssdal we will see marvin by this is apia hollywood host of marketplace tech a show that helps you understand the digital economy. How a more of the country get access to better internet. What new jobs will artificial intelligence create or destroy and what tools will help us. Survive are already changing climate. We tell the stories behind the technology in our lives and every weekday. Our podcast brings you insight. You won't hear on the radio checkout marketplace tech. Wherever you get your podcasts..
Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal
"kai" Discussed on Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal
"In los angeles. I'm kai ryssdal. It is tuesday today. The eighth of june. Good as always to have you along everybody. We are going to do a one to to start things off today. A macro micro thing a big picture and then granular look inside the gears of this economy. The case study at hand is the supply chain on which we have spent as. You're no no small amount of time. The past couple of months shortages and price spikes logistical. Bottlenecks well to that end. The biden administration says it has planned the supply chain disruptions task will thinking goes increase domestic production of critical inventory like semiconductors in batteries. That was announced. Today it is also by the way admission that we are not going to be able to make everything we need ourselves. Marketplace's justin hose on the macro desk. Today what the biden administration's really doing here is trying to reduce the economy's dependence on china talking about trying to reduce dependence on other countries for rare earth. That's mainly china. Td russ is an economics. Professor at uc davis. They're talking about trying to safeguard and encourage domestic sources of key pharmaceutical ingredients here. We import those from china. So the idea instead is to rely more on american. Allies is trading partners. Says rachel brewster at duke law school when we're discussing semiconductors. Our major allies will be out three. Ed japan i wan when we move onto pharmaceuticals. It's going to be maced much more in europe. But there's a problem with that says emily blanchard at dartmouth. We have been entangled in many of the same trading partners for a number of years the trump administration slap tariffs on trade with a lot of these countries and even now tariffs on european metals. Remain in place. I think here we are sensing a very deliberate and intentional policy shift by the biden administration to say let's deal with some of these national security concerns with our neighbors not despite our neighbors blanchard says we don't have the capacity to manufacture everything we need in the us. It'd be a fool's errand. She says to try to go it alone. I'm justin how for marketplace. The mark part of this supplies story today comes to us from the national federation of independent business which released its small business optimism index this morning. The group's monthly survey of business owners in retailing construction manufacturing also services among the highlights forty percent of small business owners plan on raising prices the most since nineteen eighty-one marketplace's kristen schwab made some calls bobbi williams in columbia south carolina is facing some tough competition not for who can make the best catfish or country fried steak. But who can lauren workers like. Say if you could bog mirror we will hire well. We just need some bodies right now. Williams raised starting wages at his restaurant. Lizard's thicket to ten dollars an hour up from eight. Meanwhile prices of everything from pork to plastic goods are soaring. Bacon has doubled food. Prep gloves quadrupled because manufacturing processing trucking. Everything is backed up every week. There's five or six items that are out of stock williams's had to pass the cost onto customers because he simply can't sell more to make more money labor and supply shortages are holding business owners down. The big issue is that they aren't able to take advantage of that increasing demand for their good or service. Hollywood is with the national federation of independent business which found half of small business owners had unfilled job. Openings in may and of those more than ninety percent say there were few or no qualified applicants. that's jeweler becky. Both problem in oak michigan her goldsmith moved to hawaii during the pandemic. she needs sales associates. Too i can train people to sound. But i can't train people to have a personality binding people with that you know. Hey how are you in the. It's more high. She too has had to raise wages. And that's not her only problem. Her suppliers are raising prices because minds and manufacturers overseas are still dealing with pandemic disruptions. I'm kristen schwab for marketplace on wall street today. Not a whole lot of enthusiasm. Either way really..
Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal
"kai" Discussed on Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal
"Final note on the way out today might have heard that the department of justice has recovered some of the bitcoin that colonial pipeline paid after that ransomware attack last month. Sixty seven point three bitcoin recovered. The government says worth two point three or so million dollars. But here's the thing when colonial paid the ransom which the ceo has said they did just days after the may seventh tech sixty seven point. Three bitcoin was worth three point. Seven million dollars so where the other one point. Four million go volatility. That's what that is getting. all right. We gotta go here. Though is you're a moment of economic context commodities division with a reopening economy comes increased demand. We know that demand for lots of stuff including oil the us benchmark west texas intermediate hit seventy dollars a barrel today closed just under. That's about two and a half year high gas by the way three. Oh five a gallon says aaa. Our daily production team is indie corbin richard cunningham real and horse mchenry dc plus ios and menu park. I'm kai ryssdal. we will see tomorrow. Everybody this is. Apn hey everyone. I'm eddie matinees hosted the marketplace podcast. This is uncomfortable. It is a show about life and how money messes with it and this season. We're digging into one very specific feeling that suspension that in some way or another pro kinda getting scammed from a decade long quest to unravel and identity to the get rich quick alert of multi level marketing skis. We get into how our society seems to be built in a way. That can often leave. Many of us feeling cheated. You can check out the new season of this uncomfortable wherever you get your podcast..
Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal
"kai" Discussed on Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal
"In los angeles. I'm kai result monday today. The seventh of june good as always have long everybody last week. As i think i mentioned maybe a couple of times. It was jobs jobs and more jobs this week. Yes jobs still matter but attention turns to inflation. We're gonna get the latest report on the consumer price index. This thursday. The fed meets next week. Tuesday wednesday at which inflation will surely be discussed so we are going to get ahead of the story just a little bit with mohamed el aaron talk inflation and this recovery dr. Aaron is the president of queen's college cambridge also the chief economic adviser at all eons. Welcome to the program sir. Thank you for having me. You are becoming One of the more high profile people who say they are worried about inflation in this economy. And i guess i want to know is why i'm one more worried because of what i'm seeing on the ground talking to ceo's and other people that really participating in the price formation process we seeing significant supply bottlenecks. We're seeing soaring transportation. Cost the facilities in hiring. And all of these things on not immediately reversible. So when you look at the economy from the bottom up you start sensing mounting inflationary pressures that are being encouraged by incredibly loose monetary policy as you know though j pal and many others Say you know what we see all that too. But it's transitory. These are weird times in this economy. I'm paraphrasing the chairman here These are words in this economy. We've been deeply scarred. It's all gonna work itself out and and clearly. Don't buy that. I by the view that these uncertain times. What i don't buy is the notion that we ought therefore confident that inflation is transitory. Undoubtedly out to elements that are transitory uncle base effect. Simply when you compare with the previous year it really does matter that the price level came down and the other one are very short term imbalances between supply and demand. But we are seeing deepa things going on the economy. And i just think you have to be open minded to the fact that the supply side and demand side evolving structurally. In a way that may be po- inflationary can i read that as you saying That perhaps the fed is not being minded right now and maybe chair. Powell has painted himself into a corner. I feared that's the case. And i say i fear because fed credibility is key so the fed has done two things one. It has repeated the transitory narrative and it has become a mantra literally. Mantra and the second one is that it shifted unfortunate time from a forecast based approach to an outcome based approach so. If the fed is wrong it will be late. And if it is late is going to have to slam on the brakes and it has to slam on the brakes. History suggests we end up in a recession and we may end up with financial instability. So there's a lot of stake here and that's why slowly easing your foot off. The accelerator is a much better outcome than having to slam on the brakes. Let's translate here for a second. When you say slam on the brakes. You mean raise interest rates precipitously which will then drive. The economy into recession and markets will go haywire correct. And the last thing we need right now is to derail that recovery and to derail what i think is a significant economic policy. Shift the biden administration. So what are you looking at to to let you know when this might Not be translated. I mean i mean treasure. Sectarian said this weekend. She's looking at expectations right. What people are thinking about inflation. Also low wage earners and their pay increases water. Your tells here so. I i'm looking at the fact that from the aggregate data we have completely missed to surge in both cpi inflation and what's called inflation second. I listened very carefully to what companies tell us on their quarterly earnings and then look the functioning of the labour market. How do you explain that booming. Demand is not resulting in higher job being created. How do you explain the fact that we have over eight million openings. That are not being well all right so wait sorry. Sorry jump in but you look at the pay of these jobs. You look at the fact that people are still getting being scared of catching a disease and then also as you know in this country there's the whole discussion about federal ui benefits. I mean there's a lot of factors here correct and over the next few months some of them should be reverse so the argument. We will know by the end of september. We'll also get a better feel for how worried people are going back to where we will also get a better feel for what happens when you open schools but i do think childcare is important. I do think that we having skill mismatch. They're simply too many uncertainties. The alternative of just repeating over and over again that is transitory inflation suggests that you have conviction when this little foundation for that view or so. Here comes the unknowable question. When are we gonna know Whether this inflation that we are seeing. Because it's their right. When are we gonna know whether it's transitory or it's here to stay so defense has told us very clearly that they don't expect to know until the end of the year. What the beginning of next year. The markets are a little bit less certain so we have seen significant increase in facing expectations. And this is the issue is when he asked a question. If i end up making your mistake which mistake can recover from more quickly. Muhammed eleryan Is the president of queen's college Cambridge also chief economic adviser at alliens. Mama thanks very much retirement. Do appreciate thank you wall street today. Inflation chm inflation kind of a mixed bag in equities. We'll have the details.
Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal
"kai" Discussed on Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal
"Coming up. I was like this. This isn't adding up. you know. Sometimes it never does first though. Let's do the numbers dow industrial's up twenty five points today just under a tenth percent. Thirty four thousand. Six hundred nasdaq up. Nineteen points tenth percent. Thirteen thousand seven fifty six s and p five hundred found six points also about a tenth percent forty-two and eight two hundred billion dollars is a number we are looking at today. How much corporations have committed to racial equity and social justice since may of twenty twenty that's the calculation from the kinsey institute for black economic mobility which has much of that money is ended affordable housing and support of small and medium-sized businesses. Sabrina was telling us about employees. Prefer to work remotely even in a post pandemic world companies that outfit offices are catering to the work from home customer. Odp corporation. They own office depot. And max up half percent. Herman miller he of the chairs down seven tenths percent. Hp inc down two tenths percent. You're listening to marketplace from all of us at marketplace. Thank you for. Your support has year whether you just gave for the first time or have been a loyal donor for years. Your generosity makes our work possible marketplace investors. Keep this public service going strong. If you're not an investor yet there is still time to become one give anytime at marketplace.org/donate and again thanks. This marketplace podcast is supported. By cyber reason. If you're defender fighting to protect your organization from cyber attackers you must be successful ending attacks every single time. They only need to be successful. Once cyber reverses the attackers advantage their future ready attack platform gives defenders the wisdom to uncover understand and piece together multiple threats and the precision focused and cyber attacks instantly together. We are the defenders cyber reason and cyber attacks from endpoints everywhere learn more at cyber reason dot com slash marketplace. This is marketplace. i'm kai ryssdal. We talked work and the changes. Come into it as we got going today and while there is still a whole lot. We don't know about what work is going to be like in the long term. I will bet you a paycheck. There's going to be a bunch of video conferencing involved and as the risks from the virus. Fade we're probably not gonna throw it our ring lights all of a sudden but how we use video technology is probably going to change. Marketplaces megan mccarthy carino. Has that one. That's like that fifty pound sack of flour. You bought at the beginning of lockdown. Videoconferencing has gotten kinda stale over the last fourteen months. I'm on zumra about eight. Am in the morning sometimes until seven or eight pm. at night. i felt like i was living in a screen. Kyle arteaga runs a pr firm that used to have offices in san francisco nashville and dc. He's mostly gotten rid of them and transformed into a remote first workplace. He hopes will rely a little less on video conferencing soon. We're just gonna have to make rules and set parameters over when it makes sense. The technology is going from a substitute for social interactions. To just a tool says erik. Gordon a business professor at the university of michigan. I think we all learned something about the value of physical presence. People who irritated me in my office. I can't wait to see them again but it doesn't have to replace face to face to be useful says. Sit all neely a business professor at harvard. It's additive compliments even for people who might be called located. There's convenience to say hey let's get on zoom for fifteen minutes. A figure something out video chatting has become a reflex. We won't just drop but we'll use it. More sparingly says brian crop head of hr research at gartner. What are the tasks and activities and moments where we really need you to be in the office. And what are the ones where you don't need to be video. Works for one on one meetings or presentations but jerry shen new introductions are sharing a birthday cake probably better in person..
Talking About Fun TV Shows!
"kai" Discussed on Talking About Fun TV Shows!
"And he says you know you got to Visualize who you wanna hit. And he's like do you have someone in mind and Miguel pitchers cuyler and So he really starts wailing into the dominant. He's so he's getting better at hitting things and so it goes to the next scene and it's cuyler at the dinner with the larusso and daniel. He is cutting up some tuna that You know he's making sushi out of the tuna and He's using the special knife that he got from okinawa. And everything like that and cuyler. He does the rudest thing ever possible because daniel offers him some and cuyler says he doesn't want any because he doesn't like sushi and You don't like fish. And sam says no you like fishy like to fish sticks at school and he's like yeah. Fish sticks are awesome. Ghani fish sticks and you know a marseille this right now and this. Is you know one of the reasons why kyle gets on my nerves. Because i'm iming speaking as somebody who has had kind of nervous Meet meet the parents dinners you know And i was so nervous. I'm not a big sushi eater either. Okay but If i'm against at somebody's house my girlfriend or my boyfriend's house and they offer me sushi. I'm gonna try it you know. I'm not going to be like a like sushi. But do you fish sticks. No i'm not. I these kids today and you know if this is an example of kids way they are. I mean come on guys. You know i would. I would be embarrassed if if i refused. My boyfriend's father's you know offering a food. I would be so i. I would be slowly gradually sinking underneath the table. I wouldn't know what to do with myself so anyway So amanda and sam they go and they look for something for colored to eat leaving cuyler and daniel at the dinner table to talk. And you know maybe get to know each other and Daniel asks him where he got his black guy from and collar tries to tell him that he did it in a wrestling match. And all of this and Daniel knows better. you know. Because he's he's he's been bullied you know he had his fair share of high school fights and But cuyler says no. It was nothing like that. And then you know so daniel asks. Was it something going on at home. And of course collar says no. It wasn't anything like that either. And he says that some guy outside a mini mart jumped in because all him and his friend was trying to do. Was you know by Protein bars boba blah and So daniel buys this and so the next thing we go to is daniel. He's going to the doj oh to cobra kai and He confronts johnny right before that we see mcgill. And he's cleaning the windows as in the cobra kai and he as johnny's like dessert particular way. You want me to do this since say in and john is like i don't care you know but he looks like he's doing that wax on wax off thing..
Pop Culture Cosmos
"kai" Discussed on Pop Culture Cosmos
"My friend i wanna talk to you a little bit about cobra guy. Have you had a chance to check out any of the episodes as of yet so that was one where i've never actually gone to watch the first couple of seasons so i'm really behind on that show. Go ahead spoil away man. I mean it's going to be a little bit before. I get there so go ahead. What are your stoked about your punch in the screen. What are your thoughts. I'd kick the screen. But i hurt my foot earlier before we started the show so i wanted to go ahead right now and tell everybody i will not go into major spoilers. Let's go a little bit back in time with cobra. Kai cobra kai was Show that debuted on youtube. When youtube was looking to do original programming it was the big marquee show for them. They had a few other shows but none of them have really lasted or have the kind of popularity that cobra kai cobra kai is kind of like the continuation of the events. That happened from karate. Kid one two and three. If you've seen those movies this is like the well. This is what happened. Many years later could be the case. And i know. I've said this before on the show josh but when i watched season one and i really didn't think i was going to be watching the joint one but they had a free preview on youtube so i checked it out and i was amazed at how much i enjoyed that episode. Because i'm not a big fan of the movies. I've watched one and two. I've watched one a couple of times. Thought even back then in the eighties. When i was a teenager i thought it was super cheesy and did not even care for it at the time trying to watch it again later in life and still can get it before. Cobra kai came out. But let me tell you. Cobra kai is the series that in deers people with the karate kid movies. And even if you didn't like it as i did it now makes you understand and makes you appreciate those movies even more even the widely panned karate kid part three it does a great job of embracing what was so cheesy amount that and actually enveloping it by turning and twisting it around on its foot..