17 Burst results for "Judah Cohen"
"judah cohen" Discussed on KQED Radio
"Their home, But I guess people must just be taken that step. There's a matter of fact. I was talking with the family on yesterday, and they just knew that these people, you know they're the temperature in their home was 32 degrees, and it's life or death. I mean, when you think about it, So what they did was they brought the people in and they all had their mask and gloves on and The individuals in one side of the house while they were on the other side of the house, and you know that was survival. And that's that's what we do in times like the Michael Evans has mayor of Mansfield, Texas. Thank you, sir. Thank you very much, and good luck to you. People watching. This week's weather include Marshall Shepherd, who is director of the Atmospheric Studies program at the University of Georgia. Professor Shepherd. Welcome back the program. Thank you for having me. I just want to start with the obvious. We have really, really cold weather in a region that does not normally expect it. Can we connect that to climate change? Yeah, that question always gets asked, But I always start the answer that question with a reminder that it is winter and it is February and so can get cold outbreaks. Naturally, This is a case where that word the polar vortex has resurfaced. Typically, it's zord of keeping that cold air up in the Arctic, but occasionally it can be breached or weakened and you get these disruptions in the polar vortex. And then you can get this cold, dense air to use down into the lower 48. That's what we're seeing there. There is some evidence in the science literature that these disruptions will happen more frequently, and so that we may see more of these types of events, but it would be sort of scientifically irresponsible toe link this specific event toe climate change, but we know that there may be a connection. Going forward with these types of events appreciate the frankness there. There has been some research suggesting that Arctic warming is weakening the jet stream, which might change the kinds of air that come down. To the United States. Does that seem to be happening? Yeah, that's that's what I was alluding to. With this direct disruption. The polar vortex. There's something called Arctic amplification whereby the Arctic regions warming a bit more intense than we are down in the lower 48. There are science, the papers that suggest that that causes a much wavy or jet stream pattern with more high amplitude ways. If you think back to high school physics, and so we get these really cold events But we also get these really warm events during the warm season as well. So this isn't an unprecedented Cole. We've seen it before. But as my colleague Judah Cohen has often talked about these things that used to happen less and frequent less frequently, but it seems that they're happening yearly now, which is something we're keeping an eye on seems to be happening more frequently, and I just want to underline another thing blindingly obvious, But sometimes when it's super cold, you get On Internet troll, saying something about everybody says it's global warming. Look how cold it is. Climate change means extreme weather, right? Not just warm weather. Well, I I often say whether is your mood and climate is your personality. Your mood today doesn't tell me anything about your overall personality. And nor does a day of cold weather or hot weather for that matter, or a week of it. So that's ah, very sort of poor framing that we do get often on Twitter and in various places. When I see someone saying that it clearly sort of illustrates that that person doesn't understand perhaps the difference between weather and climate, and the other thing I would say is because our winters have been so warm as our climate changes. When we do get extreme cold weather. It feels that much worse because we don't experience their extreme cold. As much as we used to. So suppose somebody an official from Texas called you up and asked for advice and said, You know where upgrading the infrastructure. We're rebuilding the infrastructure. We don't want to experience like this week to happen.
"judah cohen" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Know, it just turned into a cascade. So he's very climate change connection here. Is it too early to tell if it's more of a question of too early to tell? I mean, there are people who study the Arctic and they've been studying the warming up there. The fact that there's a lack of sea ice and For instance, Judah Cohen at a and he says, that is definitely a climate change connection here. All those scientists want to look at it longer want to take more studies before they make a commitment? Hey, burn. One thing I want to ask you about is the Texas Railroad Commission G. Jim Wright, our commissioner, he told Bloomberg TV that renewable energy sources Such as wind turbines are diverting resources away from reliable fossil fuel sources like natural gas, So I want to ask you, you study. This is alternative energy sources. Partly to blame. We have a story on the system right now by our colleagues, and you know that that wasn't the conclusion I drew after leading the story was that You know, I didn't really see that in in their reporting, so I wouldn't I wouldn't want to comment on that further. Is it more that the power grid problems and limitations of aging of you know, which is not a new story, Brian. You know this well. You know, is it just I mean, we've been talking about this for years for decades. Well, you know, it's not just Texas either. I mean level over the summer, where it was extreme temperatures in the other direction, hot weather that caused all these problems in California and where they had issues. And there have been other issues in the Northeast as well. I believe in Long Island a few years ago, had This is severe issues out to some severe weather events. So I think you know we're seeing the chickens are coming home to roost, I guess is what I would say A brand what needs to happen. With the grid with infrastructure in California in taxes and other parts of the country to make sure that this type of thing doesn't keep happening. The scientists tell me. We have to accept the fact that we live in a changing climate and a changing world and we have to prepare for it insures. Tell me this is well. I talked to a lot of different insurance companies, and they're always saying the same thing. The world is changing and changing it a very fast rate and we have to prepare for it. Every insurer I ever talked to, They say, Prepare, prepare, Prepare, prepare, and you know, none of them dispute climate change. They say that it's coming in here. It's now in its a problem. It's why really climate change for such a long time. People like Well, it's you know, not a financial story. It's not an economic story and yes, it is. And we have definitely seen it. You know, Brian just quickly over the last few years. How much So it is. Oh, I totally agree with you. I mean, I think the Climate change is a financial story. And to look at it from any differently is the wrong conclusion to take because it's going to affect the banks and everyone else. Totally. Alright, Brian. Thank you so much. Really Appreciate your reporting. Brian K. Sullivan. Ah! Bloomberg News. Joining us on the phone from Boston. Let's get back to a world of national news over to Nancy Lions in D. C. Hi, Nance. Hey, Carol. The Democratic chair of the House Homeland Security Committee, Bennie Thompson is filing a lawsuit against Donald Trump for inciting the deadly insurrection at the U. S. Capitol and the attorney for Thompson, Joe Sellers. Says Trump, his attorney, Rudy Giuliani, as well as the proud boys. An oath keepers also tried to interfere with the election. They collectively move to take over the capital and attempt to slow down or stop the Congress from ratifying the election results. The lawsuit is part of an expected.
"judah cohen" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"This Tuesday the energy crisis scribbling power grids across the US and we're seeing blackouts, leaving about five million customers without electricity. It's all because of unprecedented cold weather across Texas and other states that are normally pretty warm this time of year. Then get this. There are global links to this. Brian K. Sullivan is Bloomberg News Weather reporter. He joins us now on the phone. From Boston. Brian, Let's start out with just the big question, right? Like how did this happen? The wet weather wise. Why is it so cold in so many parts of the country that doesn't don't usually see temperatures like this. So during the first week of January, there was a burst of warm air over the North Pole. And that may sound a bit of Ah, uh, paradox, but warm air will come in over the North Pole. And what this does is it displaces The colder air up there the you have the polar vortex, which is like a girl of wind that keeps the cold in the North Pole. This warming will weaken that and it allows the cold the spill out. So this has been weeks in the making, but it's you know, it finally got here at the end of last week, and it's really dug in now. All right, so that on top of how come the power grid couldn't deal with it? Well, that's good, and that's a big question, And that's one of the ones that things that lot of people are looking into. And part of it is that The cold was just so severe when it got into a Texas. Um A lot of these places just aren't equipped and you know the infrastructure isn't equipped to deal with Such bitter cold, you know, in the north or the northern Great Plains, For instance, they're used to seeing temperatures go down the single digits and whatnot. But in Texas. Now you have equipment failing and you know, it just turned into a cascade. So he's very climate change connection here. Is it too early to tell if it's more of a question of too early to tell? I mean, there are people who study the Arctic and they've been studying the warming up there. The fact that there's a lack of sea ice and For instance, Judah Cohen at a and he says, that.
"judah cohen" Discussed on News-Talk 1400 The Patriot
"Five officers shot. And he's requesting prayers that we'll get officers were rushed memorial Hermann hospital and Ben Todd one by lifelock for others by ambulance. One suspect is dead. But it's still an active scene with two suspects. Still at large found your reporting, Texas governor, Greg Abbott issued a statement saying the attack on the officers as a solemn reminder of the service and sacrifice our brave men and women and law enforcement make every day to keep us safe. After blizzard, like conditions raked the upper mid west today. Forecasters are warning blisteringly cold conditions will settle in correspondent Seth Bornstein reports. They'll be an extended cold snap because of the polar vortex. That news is well, it won't be as cold. This cold snap will only be a few days, but it will still be cold. And a still be colder than normal. We will feel the effects of this polar vortex wandering until mid February. Maybe as late as mid March. That's according to Judah Cohen who's a winter storm expert at atmospheric environmental research, which is just outside of Boston. The Trump administration is pressuring the Madero government in Venezuela to give way to opposition leader Guido in the wake of the country's economic condition. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin says the US is imposing sanctions on the Venezuelan government. The United States is holding accountable. Those responsible for Venezuela's tragic decline. We will continue to use all of our diplomatic and economic tools to support. Interim president Guido the national assembly and the Venezuelans people efforts to restore their democracy on Wall Street the down on by two hundred nine points..
"judah cohen" Discussed on Here & Now
"Think are important predictors indicates. What will they be the behavior of the pull of war TEK? So we're now having this, you know, disruptive polar vortex. But if we would have a strong, pull of war Tech's that would indicate more mild a winter, whereas the rest of communities really focused on the tropics using that. So the with one big predicted everybody talks about hear about a lot about even in. You know in the news is they'll Nino southern oscillation this this. This year, we have anaemia actually, which is when the warriors are above normal temperatures in the tropical Pacific off the coast of South America at tends to make it. I'll warm in the western US in cooler, maybe and wetter in the southeastern US. I mean that would that would kind of be consistent with what maybe the expectations are based on the behavior. The the Anthony behavior the polar vortex. But I think that cool cold temperatures would extend for the north then you might typically expect with just hell Nino alone. Winter now a couple of times you've said, there's a debate about this or the science isn't quite clear on what what's causing this, and what's causing that with the research that's being done. Now, the technology that we have now is it are we getting closer to the point where they'll be less of that where we'll be able to say this is a result of climate change. This is a result of this. This is why these droughts are happening, etc. Yeah. I mean, I think that technology is getting better. I mean, for whatever reason, and we were I was just calling somebody else that this topic seems more controversial than others in the in the climate. I mean, I was just at a conference a couple of weeks ago and the speakers when it came to this topic all Gaba. So this is a controversial topic. There's a lot of debate about it. You don't hear that? But other topics so this one seems to be kind of unique about their mouth the controversy for reasons, I don't fully understand. But you know, we use we use these global climate models GM's to try to understand this problem. I think I think there there would need to be improvements in the mile to get come to a better understanding of the mechanisms involve let's say with the with the Arctic change, and and the pull of war Tech's behavior, and then our weather, but you know, hopefully, you know, we're gonna make make progress on that. But well, we we certainly have a pretty good idea of what's going to happen. At least in the coming days. I mean, really we we know that a hurricane is gonna move this way. And that it's going to go up north, and you You know. know, the temperatures are going to be like this five days out, you know, seven days out. We're pretty good at that. At this point. You have to imagine that we're only going to get better at that. You know, I mean, we're going to get better. But I I mean, I'm looking at this event that's going on now at this vortex disruption. The models have been all over the map in their forecast. I mean, much really surprisingly saw I mean, even I'm been surprised, and I'm pretty skeptical about the models ability. So, but that's different from the weather forecast. Which is just you know, is it going to be rain tomorrow night? I mean, I think they're being tremendous improvements in that, you know, certainly over the over my lifetime, but the bigger picture still a little more difficult. Yes. But getting out beyond the week or ten day forecast. It's even especially difficult when when you have this kind of poll of war sticks rupture that's going on. I think the models really struggle with this and its influence on our weather. So I would expect the predictability or the the accuracy of the mouse actually be pretty poor over the next couple of weeks. That is Judah Cohen director of seasonal forecasting at the firm atmospheric and environmental research and a visiting scientist at MIT. Thank you, so much, my pleasure. Thanks, saddened me..
"judah cohen" Discussed on Here & Now
"And you know, I'm reading all these reports about isn't this great battered housing market. Yea what's drawing the trend driving the trend first of all as far as mortgage rates? Go. The biggest influence on them is the US treasury bond market. The yield on treasury bonds is considered the most risk free way to get a return on your dollar in the investment world. So what happened was we've had some weak economic data and we've had a really turbulent stock market. And that tends to send people into the treasury bond market, and they bid up the prices of treasuries, which in turn brings those yields down their own interest rates, and those interest rates influence, not just mortgages. But but basically all loans throughout the economy because if you can get a certain percentage in the treasury market, it's considered the most safe way to invest your money. So all other interest rates sort of react to that. And at the same time, the Federal Reserve has sort of signaled that it probably won't be as aggressive lifting its own benchmark interest rate, which affects the yield in treasuries and everything else. So a big part of it is this turbulence in the stock market and weakness in the economy, that's really driven those treasury yields down. Okay. But what is James stack seeing? Yes, you have the rates going down. And I can see homebuyer saying great now is the time. And I tell us why we care about what he thinks. He's got a pretty good track record. That's exactly right. Yeah. That's that's a big reason why we played the up pretty high is he actually is one of the few people that predicted the real estate crash in two thousand and eight and he also predicted the slowdown that we saw last year. So anyone who's a sort of bad batting a thousand for housing, we tend to pay attention to and his main concern is those other things I talked about that the economy seems to be coming off the boil a little bit that home sales work down last year in certain months has him worried that housing is just gotten to expensive. It's not affordable enough for a lot of people. And he thinks that psychology is really starting to change where people are looking at housing and saying, you know, what it's just too expensive. I'm not ready to buy a home yet. And that in turn would obviously 'cause prices put some pressure on home prices. If there are less active buyers in the housing market. What will that do for the economy? It's not a good thing at all for the economy. I I mean, I think obviously the two thousand eight crisis and recession was centered pretty much on the housing market and the mortgage market. I don't think the risk is as great as it was then simply for one thing, there's not as many adjustable rate loans outstanding as there were back then and those rates all go up as interest rates rise. So that risk isn't as great and the whole structured finance that Wall Street had put together to to fund the mortgage market is in better shape than it is now, but it certainly that said, you know, I would necessarily cause a crash like we saw in two thousand eight, but it would not be a good thing for the economy. It certainly would add to the concerns people have hope Chaim stack isn't right. This time. Senior editor Bloomberg news. Thank you. Some parts of the US that have been experiencing a mild winter could be infra change the band of Arctic air known as the polar vortex is split up into three pieces and one part of it has drifted over New England and eastern Canada that could mean an increase in severe winter weather across parts of the east coast in the coming weeks for more. We're joined now by Judah Cohen. He is director of seasonal forecasting firm atmospheric and environmental research and a visiting science at MIT to cone. Welcome to here now. My pleasure. Thank you. Okay. So let's start with what is the polar vortex? So Paul vortex area of low pressure that sits right over the North Pole. High up in the atmosphere about the twenty thirty miles above the surface. And it's around the pole of Tech's fast flow ribbon of air. The key kinda keeps the cold air confined inside of the polo vortex. And then you have mild their air that flows on the kind of the periphery or outside of the..
"judah cohen" Discussed on KDWN 720AM
"A L. I get the follow us on Twitter and on Facebook show. All right. So they say I live in Nevada and southern Nevada. So I'm not gonna feel this. But I really feel for you guys. They say the polar vortex could bring freezing Arctic air over the US and send temperatures plummeting within weeks. Now, what is the polar vortex the air there sixty thousand feet above the Arctic circle, isn't that where the North Pole is. Polls must be up there in the Arctic circle. I really would love do. They really have Santa's house. Did they actually I heard that at the North Pole? They really do have a North Pole. Is that true? I want to look that up because I would that would be on my bucket list. I wanna go to Disneyland Paris. If I ever get the money, I want to go to Greece 'cause I've already been to Italy, I loved Italy, Germany, China, and Japan and Australia, but I would want to see Santa's home at the North Pole. I just what I think that'd be the coolest thing. Researchers say the polar vortex the US and Canada. By the end of this month or in January. Judah Cohen a climate expert at atmospheric environmental research, said the latest studies indicate that there is a chance Arctic air could push southward and Blake it much of the northern hemisphere. The coming weeks, they said all depends on the polar vortex..
"judah cohen" Discussed on KDWN 720AM
"A L. I follow us on Twitter and on Facebook that up to Dolly's show. All right. So they say. I live in Nevada and southern Nevada. So I'm not gonna feel this. But I really feel for you guys. They say the polar vortex could bring freezing Arctic air over the US and send temperatures plummeting within weeks. Now, what is the polar vortex? Why air there were sixty thousand feet above the Arctic circle. Isn't that where the North Pole is? Pulse. Must be up there. The Arctic circle. I really would love do. They really have Santa's house. Did they actually I heard that at the North Pole? They really do have a North Pole. Is that true? I want to look that up because I would that would be on my bucket list. I wanna go to Disneyland Paris. If I ever get the money, I want to go to Greece 'cause I've already been to Italy, I loved Italy. Definitely want us to Germany of lunacy, China, and Japan and Australia. But I would want to see Santa's home at the North Pole. I think that'd be the coolest thing. Researchers say the polar vortex the US and Canada. By the end of this month, or in January Judah Cohen climate expert at atmospheric environmental research, said the latest studies indicate that there is a chance Arctic air could push southward and Blake much of the northern hemisphere. The coming weeks, they said all depends on the polar vortex. And if it's stable the winner will be quite ordinary.
"judah cohen" Discussed on KDWN 720AM
"C D A L. I get the follow us on Twitter and on Facebook that up to Dolly's show. All right. So they say. I live in Nevada and southern Nevada. So I'm not gonna feel this. But I really feel for you guys. They say the polar vortex could bring freezing Arctic air over the US and send temperatures plummeting within weeks. Now, what is the polar vortex? Guess it's the air there sixty thousand feet above the Arctic circle. Isn't that where the North Pole is? Pulse. Must be up there in the Arctic circle. I really would love it. Do do. They really have Santa's house. Did they actually I heard that at the North Pole? They really do have a North Pole. Is that true? I want to look that up because I would that would be on my bucket list. I wanna go to Disneyland Paris. If I ever get the money, I want to go to Greece 'cause I've already been to Italy. I loved Italy definitely want us to Germany. China and Japan and Australia. But I would want to see Santa's home at the North Pole. Just what I think that'd be the coolest thing. They say researchers say the polar vortex at the US and Canada by the end of this month or in January. Judah Cohen a climate expert at atmospheric and environmental research said the latest studies indicate that there is a chance Arctic air could push southward and much of the northern hemisphere. The coming weeks, they said all depends on the polar vortex..
"judah cohen" Discussed on KDWN 720AM
"Seven seven. The DA L. I gets a follow us on Twitter and on Facebook that up to Delhi show. All right. So they say a. Nevada and southern Nevada. So I'm not gonna feel this. But I really feel for you guys. They say the polar vortex could bring freezing Arctic air over the US and send temperatures plummeting within weeks. Now, what is the polar vortex? I guess it's the air there sixty thousand feet above the Arctic circle, isn't that where the North Pole is. The North Pole supposed to be up there in the Arctic circle. I really would love do. They really have Santa's house. Did they actually I heard that at the North Pole? They really do have North Pole. Is that true? I want to look that up because I would that would be on my bucket list. I wanna go to Disneyland Paris. If I ever get the money, I want to go to Greece. 'cause I've already been Italy. I loved Italy definitely want to see Germany. Wanna see China, Japan and Australia, but I would want to see Santa's home at the North Pole. I just what I think that'd be the coolest thing. They say researchers say the polar vortex at the US and Canada. By the end of this month or in January. Judah Cohen a climate expert at atmospheric and environmental research said the latest studies indicate that there was a chance Arctic air could push southward and Blake it much of the northern hemisphere. The coming weeks, they said all depends on the polar vortex. And if it stable the winner will be.
"judah cohen" Discussed on KDWN 720AM
"C D A L. I get the follow us on Twitter and on Facebook that up to Delhi shown. All right. So they say. Nevada and southern Nevada. So I'm not gonna feel this. But I really feel for you guys say the polar vortex could bring freezing Arctic air over the US and sent temperatures plummeting within weeks. Now, what is the polar vortex? I guess it's the air the sixty thousand feet above the Arctic circle, isn't that where the North Pole is. The North Pole supposed to be up there in the Arctic circle. I really would love. I do do. They really have Santa's house. Did they actually I heard that at the North Pole? They really do have a North Pole. Is that true? I wanna look that up because I would that would be on my bucket list. I wanna go to Disneyland Paris. If I ever get the money, I want to go to Greece 'cause I've already been to Italy, I loved Italy. Devil. Wanna see Germany doesn't want wanna see China, and Japan and Australia? But I would want to see Santa's home at the North Pole. I just went. I think that'd be the coolest thing. They say researchers say the polar vortex at the US and Canada. By the end of this month or in January. Judah Cohen a climate expert at atmospheric environmental research, said the latest studies indicate that there is a chance Arctic air could push southward and Blake much of the northern hemisphere. The coming weeks, they said all depends on the polar vortex..
"judah cohen" Discussed on WGN Radio
"January a punishing blast of cold on the way, the harshest winter in years. Scientists warned polar vortex unleashed its fury here soon. I was really surprised. I started seeing those reports yesterday it's hard to know how to respond to those the the fellows pudding. This out as a respected researcher out at MIT fellow by the name of Judah Cohen and a couple of years ago. He put out this winter forecast who's going to be cold from the Rockies eastward it turned out to be warmer than average. But he looks a lot at Siberian snow cover asked you some of these long range. Forecasters shoving I'll be honest with you. I get to see that workout. How's that working out for your doctor? Honestly, you know, it it. It's cited so often as an of course, if a scientist utters polar vortex. You know, it gets a media headlines. But I'm not sure how many people are on board with that. And it has caught a headlines and perhaps he's under shopping. I he also looks at stratospheric warming which has been shown to buckle the Jetstream give it occurs in the right area. For guys got a clothing deal with one of those puppy coke later. Or maybe click clause in his contract with university. I'll tell you, Richard. I don't mean to denigrate the the research he's done because he's done. So you've talked about about him before the show respect is rework. But but the isn't the polar vortex what we used to call winter. Yeah. That's exactly right. I noticed the USA today article made that comment, and it's very true. And look here. I'll I'll tell you. What it when I saw that? And what is your into? We get these experimental forty five day runs. Both European centers model and our national weather shirts. Runs one. So I look at them. I thought wow, they're run twice a week by the European cetera out to forty five days in our national weather cherise runs. What's called this? Yes. CFS two models climate forecast system model, and and then they what they do is they run at ten times in average the forecast, and it does not show the polar vortex coming down in January. Now that doesn't mean there aren't going to be cold spells, I suspect there will be in the fear. I had this. When one of these comes down, everybody's gonna say she had the polar vortex. Look January will produce some cold spells. But when all said and done, I think. Yeah. That's pretty typical. And by and large the consensus seems to be now European model that shows does show a cold spell coming down. But its last run three days ago that didn't show the cold spell. So I would urge caution in reading too much into this just yet. And I we don't you're not buying it, Tom. So tonight what you're saying is there's really cold air above the North Pole. And that causes other areas of the globe to get colder because of the cold air above the North Pole. Richard as usual, you'll have you know, boiled it down. He's really there near the North Pole. It seemed Colo in there and the air above it is even colder. She. He's detect some sense that it's already going to be or is going to be disrupted at that certain point and can models predict that far out, Tom. Well, you know, what we get general forecasts up to forty five day period. What they do say they come up with predictions and five day blocks. And you smooth a lot of things out. I mean, we we have no skill at predicting a particular snowstorm out at forty five days, nor do we have a lot of skill at a particular cold spell. I would say that you know, there's a high probability will probably get a cold outbreak of some sort in January. But by and large, I'm not sure that's going to characterize the whole month. And I noticed a quote that appeared in a lot of these. Forecasts was this would be the most significant event of the winter which sounds to allay person like a pretty ominous prediction, I I'd be a little cautious about it. And I wanna she just how things unfold because they should sonny's. Forecasts. I've seen to that effect said it. It ought to be coming in the end this month and January, and I we're looking already to the end of this month, and there's a sign of a modest cool down at the end of two weeks. But by and large that period, that'd be colder later this week, but still above normal. I don't see any barbaric outbreaks just at this point. And I I would fully expect we will have a pretty healthy cold spells some point. But I'm not sure it'll characterize the rest of the winter. You know, it might be everything again. Very fell in January in Chicago. Why do you have to hype everything up with that kind of madness? Well, the problem with these predictions. We're all taken down if they don't work out. You know, everybody says they love you. And with that too. Yeah. Yeah. I'd hold off on that. The thinking has been when the books are closed on this meteorological logical winter, it may average above average, temperature wise and look at the call we have you know, a week and a half two weeks ago that ran over a multi week period. And people were saying what happened to this warmer than average winter. Well, that wasn't the winner. First of all. Great point. It's not over yet. We're still not in winter, quite no. Meteorological winner here, right? Richard. How does this thing? Evolve. Tom and your experience to make such headlines. Like that is this something that among meteorologists and people who scientists who studied the weather all sort of comparing notes, but then this one popped in in such a big way in part of it may because he's so respected as you point out. I just I wonder how this how this occurs with your guests is on that. Well, I think what happens is one media organization picks up on it. And then puts it out there and everybody else investigates and says, hey, this is indeed what a researcher respected researchers saying. So we'll go with it. But I I think it important whatever you're talking about..
"judah cohen" Discussed on Weather Geeks
"And so we have to understand those types of forecasts are made for those who may be in the utilities industry where guests. Suppliers will be buying more natural gas overall for a winter because it may be deemed colder than normal for a certain area and a lot of the forecasts have been based on global parameters such as well Nino. The tropical warming of these Pacific, researchers now Judah Cohen and others have looked at other high latitude forcing Arctic sea ice snow cover in Siberia, these types of factors that also can help modulate the winter overall. It's fascinating to see and the the meteorological emails and chat rooms are full of a lot of information now over the past week or two here that the back end of the winter could be really interesting some Some of of the United United States. States. Setting up a pretty cold pattern across the eastern US. When original seasonal forecast. A lot of them were suggesting warmer than normal overall. I because I like winter. It's going to be interesting to see I might put my money on the fact that we could have a very interesting back into the winter, and we are projecting. At least I've seen some Noah stats projected El Nino setting in as a week El Nino the last I had seen in the last couple of weeks here and week. Only news can have all different. They can go in of different directions for the east one of the weaker El Ninos produce one of the coldest winters on record in seventy six seventy seven back when when I was in school. And so it's going to be interesting to see how it plays out. But Marshall when I used to get called a national weather service to give a winner forecast, regardless of the forecast. I would always ended by telling people to keep their snow shovel their skis handy that that is good advice. And I think that's a good place where we're going to end it today. Tom. Thank you for joining us on the weather needs podcast. It's been great to get your expertise great to be here. And thank you again for joining us on the web gates broadcast. I'm Dr Marshall shepherd from the university of Georgia.
"judah cohen" Discussed on Weather Geeks
"Just based on some of the numbers, you you were the closest of some of the organizations you're comparing to same for some of the middle parts of the Pennsylvania, New York and whatnot. You you all were closer to what actually fell. So whatever you doing it worked in this case. Now, I mean, clearly there cases where you maybe have your own challenges as well. But in this particular case it worked just fine. So that's a Khuda. That's a testament to sort of whatever it is you're doing here. But it sounds to me like you are still thinking about ways to optimize the way not just we forecast the meteorology of these events. But how we communicate them as well. I mean is there some magic solution is there some? Tom that if you could be the head of the whatever organization you would implement from not from a weather standpoint. But from a communication standpoint, I got away from the mic there got so excited about that question. Is there something that you would just like the see happen that we are not doing from a communication standpoint? Or is it just the probabilistic that's part of it. I think I think continuing to communication and make sure that that those who are listening to making decisions understand that they're not going to read between the lines on this. When you say to them. Hey at four o'clock, the snow is going to come down at two inches an hour. This is what that means to you. Don't let them a don't assume that that person is going to say, okay. Well, then I have to do this in this. You have to provide that added information as well. If I had my way if I was king, I would introduce an AI artificial intelligence type system that would look at these particular high impact situations when not only you're getting heavy snow. But you're getting heavy snow in highly populated area and between if it occurs between the hours of three and five PM as an example, then the impacts are going to be exponentially higher, then the type of alert that goes out, whatever that alert is going to be to the forecaster to whoever is, hey, this one is way beyond where a typical storm would be impact wise and bringing in all of that data and using artificial intelligence computers to really put all of these this type of information together. I think I think that would go a long way and helping us identify these types of events I've got one last question for Tom. But before we do that I wanna give a shout out to Dr Brad Johnson who's one of my PHD students who actually the week of this event. We were talking about defended his dissertation at university of Georgia. And the topic was urban and winter weather in the northeast core there along the I ninety five corridor there, and he was looking at this. Rain snow line in this sort of impacts of urbanization on mix vase precipitation, freezing rain versus. No. So Brad often jokes that may be because he now lives in DC area. His defense actually brought along this storm. But before I before, I let you go, Tom. I I can't let you get out of here. You're the winter weather expert for the Weather Channel without getting your take on the winter looks like based on some of your early thoughts and prognosis the question. I know you get so I get a lamb. We did have a recent weather geeks with Greg Postel and Judah Cohen talking about their outlook on things what are your thoughts. Well, let me say at the outset that. I'm not all that sold on a full seasonal forecast. Because there are so many parameters get come into play with seasonal forecasting and very recently. There have been so many other researchers who've come forth and said, hey, it's not that simple. It's not something. Like, so talk tell us before you kind of go into that. What do you mean for the listen to talk about seasonal forecast? So this would be a forecast for the entire winter season as an example for December January and February overall what we'll forecast is whether it may be colder or warmer than normal and more or less precipitation, those of the two parameters that we will look at over an entire winter. Well, first of all it's not going to be that way. During the entire winter. We know in any given winter even our warmest winters in the northeast, we've had some massive northeast snowstorms.
"judah cohen" Discussed on Weather Geeks
"So I got this. I got ask you this. This is maybe what everybody's waiting to hear how accurate forecast been. I think you know, I I think they've been quite good. I mean directionally so predicting a cold winter or warmer, not you know, not the error. But you know, we've been right about seventy five percent of the time, you know, in the eastern United States, and that's been pretty fairly consistent. Do you? Keep a set of statistics that are publicly available for the forecast. I don't you know, we have a paper that show some statistics on the forecast from two thousand seven so clearly data. I don't update I do get asked a lot. You know, how you are in. But I there's no place you go where where I actually, you know, show keep her scorecard of it as good idea. But I don't have one. Gotcha. Well, I don't know we're we're all looking forward to this upcoming winter, and what it has to offer and look forward to checking out your your forecast. That's wonderful stuff. I love the application of these kinds of connections that are seemingly far and wide. But yet can have significant consequences for Saul so four preliminary. We'll be updating in November have a blog. I'll definitely posted there. So be sure to go there. Yeah. Can you give us the address? Okay, we'll along. But it's I mean, if you go to WWW dot com, it's you know, it's it's on the right hand corner. Orphee just Google search Judah Cohen Arctic oscillation show, the first thing that will pop up. So updated weekly block how about that. All right fantastic. All right. Doctor Judah Cohen, director of seasonal forecasting atmospheric and environmental research. Thank you so much for joining us on whether geeks. It's been a pleasure talking with you and learning so much about these kinds of connections. Thank you very much..
"judah cohen" Discussed on Weather Geeks
"You know, Tony Barnes peaking in the nineteen nineties and a lot of ways, I think the, you know, the field has an advanced beyond. He could probably give that same talk. And it'd be just, you know, up to date as it wasn't the nineteen nineties, again, a lot of I think a lot of the forecast thing, you know, hasn't really moved beyond. And so, you know, certainly, I think for for the garment, you know, it's been a crutch where they, you know, really, the only thing though, rely on against with with this work with, you know, with the cyberrays SOGA, I'm trying to say that you know, there's we can't build upon this just one idea that sees the forecast can be can be more than just end. So, and you know, and there's a value to it. And and benefit, you know, for, you know, for for society to try to incorporate, you know, these newer ideas. And I think a lot of ways I'm hoping I think maybe the, you know, we had the super in two thousand fifteen sixteen rather the forecast didn't work out that well, at least on the precipitation side where you know, expecting this big bounty of rainfall in California came the next year, and it was more of transitioning until anaemia, but. And I think people realize, you know, this is a strong of an on the signal like you can get and and yet at the forecast did not work out. So well, I'm hoping that people are ill. I gain the sense that people are more open minded to ideas. And hopefully, you know, that the, you know, lot of a lot of the other whether operations forecasters, you know, we'll try to embrace or, you know, welcome new ideas and making seasonal forecasts such a severe and snow cover, which is kind of been hanging on the fringe. They're you know in the diaster for for a long time. Yeah. I mean, it's a, you know, end so explains of small fraction of the variability that we get over North America. I mean, it's twenty twenty five percent. Statistically of what you end up getting on a seasonal average. It's a player. But as you are exploring there are others out there that can override, for example, the expectation from end so and I'd like to talk about how that can happen. Coming up in an XBox. We're gonna take a break. But yeah, Dr Judah Cohen were talking about.
"judah cohen" Discussed on Weather Geeks
"Winter is just around the corner. And everyone is wondering how cold it's going to get and how much snow is gonna fall today. Dr Judah Cohen gives us a sense of what we can expect we dive into seasonal forecasting and examined for example, how today's weather can provide clues into for example, next month's weather, and in particular, we ask why Siberian snow cover important, and why do we need to pay attention to the stratosphere? You have stratosphere that layer of air thousands of feet above were planes fly. And guess what? We'll break it all down as we discussed the twenty eighteen twenty nineteen we outlook. So welcome to this week's edition of weather geeks. Dr Greg Postel filling in for Marshall shepherd, and I'm joined by Dr Judah Cohen, who's director of seasonal forecasting of atmospheric and environmental research in Lexington Massachusetts, Dr Cohen, thank you very much for joining us on whether geeks. It's a pleasure to be here. Thank you for having. Yeah. Well, so Noah recently K. Came out with their seasonal forecasts for the winter, which is apparently a largely influenced by variations in the ocean. Temperatures in the tropical civic phenomenon. We knows L mean you, but you have an alternative approach to winter season forecasting in general, which relies on something entirely different. And that may have an outcome. Really? Unlike there's so explain. I like the stark contrast ING seasonal forecasting with the short range forecasting, which assume mostly listeners viewers are familiar with though the one two three to five even you know, we're going on to ten days. Now, there's been drastic improvement. I think certainly over the course of my lifetime. Remember when a three day? Forecasts was like it was more like eight no spinning of the throw the dice. But you know, that's not not the case anymore, and maybe the the accuracy we used to have for three day. Forecasts now can be said for a seven day. Forecasts Orillia tremendous strides have been made in the field of short range forecast. But.