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Bloomberg Radio New York

07:01 min | 1 year ago

"jonathan panico" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Hey Charlie, thank you. The president's national security adviser Jake Sullivan, a brief reporters ahead of Joe Biden's trip to the Middle East. He takes off tonight on the way to Israel and then Saudi Arabia, but he started with news on Iran, not directly tied to the president's trip, but certainly informing it and may be providing the backdrop for it as Sullivan has news that the Iranian government is providing Russia, let him say it with hundreds of drones for use in Ukraine. Here's Jake Sullivan. The Iranian government is preparing to provide Russia with up to several hundred UAVs, including weapons capable UAVs on an expedited timeline. Information further indicates that Iran is preparing to train Russian forces to use these UAVs with initial training sessions slated to begin as soon as early July. It's unclear whether Iran has delivered any of these UAVs to Russia already. Early July, so here we are. So now, with more questions about the purpose of this trip, is it just to get more oil? Because we keep hearing Saudi Arabia, the UAE, the only two nations that have spare capacity, 3 million barrels a day combined. Let's say he gets all of that oil. And brings it home to the United States with 95% refining capacity already spoken for. Does it actually make a difference? Maybe not according to some people. But as we heard or read in the president's op-ed over the weekend, at least The White House says there are much bigger plans within the eye on the Abraham accords and potentially normalizing relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. At an awfully precarious time in our history. That's where we begin with Jonathan panico, director of the Atlantic council's rent scowcroft Middle East security initiative, former deputy national intelligence officer for the near east. Jonathan, how ambitious is Joe Biden feeling as he gets on Air Force One? Well, good afternoon to you and thanks so much for having me. I think he's not feeling that ambitious to be honest. I think there are places that he knows that he can advance both Israeli Saudi and others engagement. I think more than anything this trip is really about resetting relations with Saudi Arabia and with some of his other gulf allies, including the United Arab Emirates. But when it comes to the oil itself, as you said, 3 million barrels I've heard the number might be as little as 2 million barrels. The spare capacity just isn't really there. And the odds that it's going to have a meaningful effect, I think on oil prices is pretty minimal. I think what he's really hoping more than anything is that if he can stabilize the relationship now that he can move it beyond just the traditional energy and defense sectors and really expand it to economic issues to climate issues to other alternative energies as well of course as security. What is he's going to the West Bank as well? What does this mean for the potential two state solution as he becomes the first president to fly from Israel to Jeddah on Friday? Yeah, so I don't think that the Saudis in Israel is already to normalize yet. My sense is that as long as king Solomon is on the throne, it would be unlikely that Saudi Arabia would normalize relations with Israel formally unless there was a two state solution. If MBS sees the throne, then obviously that might change the conversation. He seems to have a slightly more progressive take on whether or not normalization requires a two state solution. I think for the West Bank, to be honest and for the Palestinians, what it really is is a chance to get back in the game a little bit. Obviously they cut diplomatic relations after the Trump administration moved the embassy to Jerusalem. So another reason. Yeah, that's absolutely right. And so I think this is an opportunity to try to hopefully reset things a little bit. I don't know, Jonathan, I've been hearing a lot of big talk. I mean, expectations get awfully high, especially when people start tying it to very specific things like gas prices. The president's being beat up by Republicans for going so called hat in hand to MBS to beg for oily is getting beat up by progressives for, well, you know, not considering, I guess, to the extent that they think he should, the human rights record, the Khashoggi Khashoggi murder, which he says he will bring up here. Expectations perilously high as he set up for failure because it doesn't sound like you see many deliverables. Well, I think that there's a few, but I certainly agree that if the expectation and the public sentiment seems to be that this will bring down oil prices, then there's going to be disappointment. I think that there are places that can be advanced. So for instance, in addition to the bilateral exchange with the Israelis, there will be an I two YouTube virtual conference. I too being Israel and India, YouTube in the United States in the united of MRS, which creates a bit of a new coalition that we haven't seen before, that really could have a long-term impact when we think about Israeli technology, emirati, capital, and the industrial base that the Indians have. So I think that's a possibility. I also think on the security side, look, the move of Israel into the centcom area of responsibility from the Yukon one is not a small move, it brings the Israelis into the same room as the Saudis as the qataris, even though they don't have formal diplomatic relations. I think it's important about making marginal progress a huge deliverable. I mentioned at the outset this news of Iran supplying drones to Russia, that's going to be in the air and part of the conversation I presume as lines are being drawn Jonathan this Iranian Russian axis is becoming a bigger worry for Saudi Arabia. It is. I think it shows the shifting alliances and frankly transactional nature of most Middle East states and that includes Iran. I think at this point, it's obviously going to overhang a number of different conversations, both in Israel and the president's conversations with the so called GCC plus three. In Jeddah, at the end of the week, my sense is there will be a recommitment to Israeli defense and was really security. I think you'll also see the same commitment to the Arab states. What that actually means purposefully, I don't quite know. I think there's some discussion about an integrated air and maybe maritime defense system. That certainly would be a great starting place, but it'll take some time to develop. Jonathan, thank you for the insights, Jonathan panna COFF, the Atlantic council with us on Bloomberg sound on