28 Burst results for "Jonathan Farrow"

"jonathan farrow" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

07:45 min | 2 months ago

"jonathan farrow" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"The consumer is not as resilient as they've been in the past and more sensitive to prices. Stagflation really induces and it's a precondition for a growth recession. You've also got this fact that the world is changing economic volatility is so much higher now. The market has shifted completely away from inflation concerns to what recession concerns. For most people, it looks and feels like a recession. This is Bloomberg surveillance with Tom Keene, Jonathan farrow, and Lisa romulans. Here comes another fed rate hike from New York City this morning. Good morning, good morning, for our audience worldwide. This is Bloomberg surveillance live on TV and radio alongside Tom keen, and Lisa Bradford, Jonathan farrow, futures positive TK up 9 tenths of 1%. We look for another 75. Yeah, wall earnings coming out right now, Bristol-Myers Squibb, ADP, as well. And John, all that comes down to is it's better than good. I think Mickey chowda will give us wonderful color on this in a moment. You see it with Google Microsoft world coming to an end at what? Four 15 yesterday for 20 and you get to the morning and guess what they're up. I'm not going to get that excited. I'm going to call it a side relief time. I think others are too. Maybe signs of resilience given what we've seen in other names coming into this earnings season. Where's the world? But, you know, I think this wraps around with chairman Powell is going to have to say today, which is, you know, we're getting a long. Are we in a crisis as we try to bring inflation down? And this debate we're having this morning on the show. I think it's just fabulous. It leads to that press conference. There are things that are happening, Lisa, that I imagine this fed wants to see, which is maybe job opening start to come down, hiring intentions adapt, a little bit more demand come out of the labor market. We all wanted to see an adjustment in the housing sector. We see a gasoline prices lower. We tick in boxes and do those issues get bigger in a way that maybe the outcomes are undesirable. The problem is, is that the market goes ahead of the fed so much further than perhaps the fed would like. And at this point, yes, perhaps we're ticking boxes now and perhaps it feels controlled, but it can happen in a somewhat sudden fashion that all of a sudden the market does turn. And all of a sudden, the economy turns and the fed finds itself too tight. How much do they talk about this being a desirable outcome versus a weakening at a time when they're signs that certain aspects of inflation are softening IE Walmart with that retail inventory glut having to price it down. It goes to the question you asked earlier this morning. We've been asking it a few times over the last week or so. How do they acknowledge the weakness we're seeing in this news conference and how does that tears up for September? You know, I think that they're probably going to look at the weakness that we're seeing and they're going to say this is what we need to be seeing but that inflation is still there and that needs to be what we combat. They have to continue with that tone. At what point in this I think what people are going to be gaming out after this fed meeting at what point does the conversation change to how much does the unemployment rate have to rise? How much do the jobless claims have to rise before the fed starts to really talk about the labor market mandate as well? And is it rising when they get to September? Let's want to look for. If you're looking for alphabet, we are higher by 3.7% Microsoft doing well in the pre market as well. Futures higher by 8 tenths of 1% on the S&P 500 on the NASDAQ 100 higher two by 1.4% yields in just a basis point or so two 79 40. The Euro shown a little bit of strength. You are a dollar positive four tenths of 1% and crudely. So back to a 96 handle on WTI. Yeah, that's really been one major market. And I will just note that natural gas prices over in Europe have surged to record highs so that of course is the backdrop as we've been talking about throughout the morning with a weaker Europe, interesting the Euro is rallying a bit. Today, here's what I'm looking at. 10 a.m., we get June pending home sales. This has been one area of absolute devastation if you look at how much the volumes have dropped, plummeted in the home sales transaction data. Yesterday we got new home sales, plunging to the lowest levels going back two years. At what point do we see an ongoing weakening here that is not yet reflected in prices may take a while to go into rents, but highlights how quickly this market is responding to what the fed is doing. 2 p.m. we get the FOMC rate decision followed by two 30 p.m. press conference. We get to speak with so many wonderful guests for the fed special, which will start at one 30 p.m.. Muhammad el Arian, William Dudley, Diane swank, all joining us to really parse through what we should be looking for and really what the fed is trying to say because we have known that some of these commentaries have been more accurate than the market immediate reaction knee jerk reaction, which has tended to lag behind the realization that comes several weeks later. I'll just say that. Earnings do continue also after the bell Qualcomm meta Facebook. I will do this for you, John. And Ford Motor, we have seen a complete sell off. How much has been already priced in. And I think that is really the key job, because we aren't hearing the best news out of these earnings, right? I mean, they're not stellar earnings. There have been a lot of beats that have been below average if you look at historical quarterly earnings period. So at what point are we just seeing a market saying, okay, at least it's not the worst case scenario so we can start buying again. Yeah, Facebook has been an ugly story. That's why Tampa, more than 50% year to date. Brahma, thank you. Bigger channel joins us now. Chief global strategist and asset allocation head at Deutsche Bank. Binky, you're asking an important question. Are we seeing signs in this earnings season of rising corporate risk aversion? What do you see binky? So far, I wouldn't characterize the earnings season as showing sort of widespread or broad based signs of corporate risk aversion. But if you take a sort of wider look as to whether we are going into recession, what I would argue is pretty surely we are doing so, but we're doing so pretty slowly. So I put it as a pretty shortly but slowly. As far as earnings are concerned, we are coming in right now as of yesterday evening. Below average beats, I think you got to keep in mind that S&P 500 earnings almost always beat by about 5%. We are running at about half of that right now and of course that's going to sort of keep changing. But I would say the important thing to keep in mind here, since we are talking about recessions, we are concerned about declines. This is really the first quarter in two years that while the headline number looks fine at 6, 7, 8% growth. A lot of that is just simply coming from energy, which we all know all about from oil prices, energy earnings are actually down for the first time a year on year. Look at it sequentially and seasonally adjusted basis. They're down by good three or four. Okay, what's so important here is you and I could talk for three hours about this and never run out of questions and insights on this. I want to cut to the chase, which is sector analysis over the next three years has to be absolutely critical. How do you choose which sectors to go into? You're at a table with folks land now. He's foaming at the mouth about a need for a week dollar. Somebody else is nuts about foreign exchange. All of this other noise right now. Forget about it. Three years out, how do you choose which sectors win? So I think you have to play the sectors according to your view on where you are in the cycle and where we are basically going. I would argue the probabilities of recession have gone up, and there's a little choice, but to be long. So what's your overweight sector right now? So it would be Staples in the healthcare on the view that we are basically UnitedHealthcare as a drawdown of 2%. Nobody knows that. In a down component, John, it's a Dow component. Remember that. And I did healthcare down 2%. I mean, that's the resilience, right? Yeah. It is, but I think you

Jonathan farrow fed Tom Keene Lisa romulans Tom keen Lisa Bradford Myers Squibb Mickey chowda chairman Powell Microsoft Muhammad el Arian William Dudley Diane swank Ford Motor Bristol New York City John
"jonathan farrow" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

01:49 min | 4 months ago

"jonathan farrow" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Much more ahead on day 8 Middle East This is Bloomberg The only way to start the morning is with optimism Your jobs recovery was sluggish A lot of people agree on that Bloomberg surveillance with Tom Keene Jonathan farrow and Lisa Abramovich Finally we got some abramowitz gloom to get in there The ultimate south second of my B when Lisa capitulates Bloomberg surveillance Must watch Lisa your data point go Tom you're great Never change We did mornings at 7 eastern on Bloomberg radio and Bloomberg television There are a lot of ways to look at the world right now Interesting that you've got an overweight on Hong Kong And the more of them you can access the better What has to be his strategy Perspective Who's doing school best Clarity How do we get it so that the benefits get to everybody Expertise He seems to have exactly the right combination It's character plus policy Bloomberg radio the Bloomberg business app and Bloomberg radio dot com Bloomberg the world is listening Economics All this doing gloom was out there finding Do you see this as a technical correction investment What are you looking at Give you some sort of compass through this period The Bloomberg surveillance podcast Lots and lots of talk about what the fed should and shouldn't do John Keane Jonathan Ferrell Lisa Abraham Alex and the names that shaped the world's markets We speak with professor schiller of Yale University Bloomberg surveillance Listen to dad Bloomberg dot com the Bloomberg business app or subscribe on Apple podcasts Let's get back into the Middle East markets with our equities expert file So far has in terms of.

Tom Keene Jonathan farrow Lisa Abramovich abramowitz Lisa capitulates Bloomberg Bloomberg radio Bloomberg Middle East Lisa Tom Hong Kong Jonathan Ferrell Lisa Abraham Alex John Keane professor schiller fed Yale University Apple
"jonathan farrow" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

04:56 min | 4 months ago

"jonathan farrow" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"With Tom Keene Jonathan farrow and Lisa abramo It has been absolutely brutal from New York City for our audience worldwide Good morning good morning This is Bloomberg's surveillance live on TV and radio alongside Tom Keane and Lisa Graham and Sam Jonathan farrow futures positive by more than 1% on the S&P TK one on course for a 6th straight week of losses Sure he can losses are there Yeah there's a bid right now John but I'm going to call it a fragile bid and I focus on the vix It's still above 30 30.66 It's a bounce but it's just a bounce Have we seen the worst of it Have we seen the capitulation We've heard so many people try and answer that question Tom over the last few days It just gets me going to got me going yesterday coming back from Tottenham arsenal at the same thing John I can't say it enough You can measure catharsis where nowhere near there I measure it well out above 35 on vix into the 41 42 level or miles away You are desperate to get that match review and aren't you No I don't want to do it here I think it's appropriate The Musk news and the Twitter news is pushed Tottenham arsenal aside but I don't want to get into it now Jim I just think it was you know to see it was to believe it I mean you know I'm on the same page Totally inappropriate Totally 15 or 16% licks in early trading Basically Elon Musk with it one tweet wiping off billions upon billions of market value for this company that started the end of the day yesterday at 35 $36 billion in value How much does he really back away from this Because of a concern about bots that seem to have been remedied because there weren't as many bots as he expected on the platform and how much to your point John is this basically a re rating because he feels like he was going to get a bad deal and going to pay way too much for a company that should have priced way lower if it hadn't been for his influence over the past few months The extra point as well is the financing lined up Perhaps those concerns about bots are justified We'll see Right now there is a massive spread between where the stock is Tom 38 and when the agreement is 54 20 54 20 versus 38 As we talked to our Alec Webb John I think it's much more about Tesla I'm sorry The drawdown on Tesla from the peak peak peak is 41 percent We're down in the 700 level which is where a lot of people calculate the margin call Maybe the margin calls below that mister Musk has to be looking at his core holding is a foundation to his analysis forward Big move into that point some tests are up by more than 5% this morning From New York this morning good morning Let's work through this Friday morning price action for you We are positive across the board here on the S&P on the NASDAQ the S&P up by more than 1% the NASDAQ 100 up by 1.6 Yields are higher by 5 basis points to two 89 85 And this takes some getting used to A one O three handle on Euro dollar One O three 88 back to the lows of 2016 Lisa positive about a tenth of 1% today Yeah and just to put that into perspective as you've been noting this morning those 2016 Lowe's were just a hair away from necessarily getting back to 2003 2002 And just a complete sea change in the Euro experiment in the modern world 8 30 a.m. is the beginning of a slew of U.S. data U.S. important export price information How much do we see a decline from some of the highest levels ever in history the previous months Because we are seeing oil prices come down How much does it matter We just saw gasoline prices at least in the futures market reaching new all time high because as we've talked about on this show it is a refinery problem not necessarily just the price of oil and we have seen refinement shortages unlike anything in recent history at 10 a.m. we get University of Michigan consumer sentiment Do we see an improvement in sentiment or a worsening as inflation continues to grind higher as people start to worry that perhaps the fed can not get away with reducing inflation without spurring or at least exacerbating some sort of recession It's not clear whether they be spurring it but they might be trying to get ahead of it before inflation has a more trenchant and more pernicious effect on markets and on the economy And today we get a slew of fed speakers including Minneapolis fed president Neil kashkari He speaks at 11 a.m. he's going to be focusing on oil prices and the ramifications for inflation longer term and Cleveland fed president Loretta mester will also be speaking along with fellow central bankers from around the world to really give a sense of how to move away from such liquidity without spur and some sort of crisis It's what they're not saying that matters this week They're not bothered by the prices on the screen going down Lisa This is different to what we experienced in the last ten years They don't have another transmission mechanism And this is the uncomfortable truth If they are relying on markets to transmit financial policy to monetary policy then they're going to have to have markets go down and the question is have they gone down enough to really bring down inflation just yet And that is the tension right now underpinning volatility that a lot of people expect to continue The number one question for investors right now is a question that children on road.

Tottenham arsenal Tom Keene Jonathan farrow Lisa abramo Tom Keane Lisa Graham Sam Jonathan farrow John Alec Webb John Tesla mister Musk Elon Musk Tom Bloomberg New York City
"jonathan farrow" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

07:25 min | 5 months ago

"jonathan farrow" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Surveillance with Tom Keene Jonathan farrow and Lisa Abraham always 5 straight weeks of losses in the equity market hello week 6 from New York City this morning good morning good morning for our audience worldwide live on TV and radio alongside Tom Keane and Lisa branded Sam Jonathan farrow equity futures TK down another 1.9% That's where they're moving a bit is not coming yet Well we can say across three hours here with a pre show preparation and starting surveillance this morning John It's a situation that deteriorates We're going to get out to a 34 vix in a moment And we're looking for a bit in John just as one indication out there Bitcoin under 33,000 joins a party A big move is that big moves in the equity market and in foreign exchange as well as some the dollar index The strongest since 2002 this is big stuff We are very dollar centric here folks And by that I mean foreign exchange centric with Turkish lira blowing through 15 to 1502 John the immovable forces we talked to Michael pervis in a moment is the ten year yield 3.18% Didn't we get through 3% A cup of coffee ago Three 20 Now Tom overnight in this session Big move on a ten year the 5 year the highest since 2008 bramo we're pushing ahead to the big one on the schedule this week is CPI this Wednesday And how much we get that mechanical peak in inflation And then looking forward is that going to be something that we see continuing to decelerate this idea that perhaps the fed will get a reprieve from that We're talking about the idea of risk not stemming from the fed It is stemming from supply chains out of China It is stemming from oil prices that are surging having to do with what's going on in Ukraine And that I think is very hard for the markets to deal with which is the reason that we're getting this tightening kind of ramification of volatility The line from Morgan Stanley Lisa I know this resonates with you too avoiding a recession is our base case but markets will have to confront the rising probability of one regardless And how do you do that after a market has been benumbed by a Federal Reserve for decades basically saying we've got your back Suddenly not having their back and all these traders have to readjust to suddenly whipsaw action does not have to do with what a number of people say at Washington The fed put has been well and truly retired hasn't it given what Lisa just laid out there for us We're going to talk to Michael perverse purpose about this about you know what I guess it's a new regime John And to me there's a repricing going on You put an historical context Is it a bear market Yes certainly as you mentioned John on Friday many stocks just absolutely hammered But you look at the indices and you say well where is the immediate catharsis that we really have we seen catharsis yet John I don't think so Can we make the case that the worst of this is done At least I'd look to credit What's been interested in about credit is yes there's been damage done there But spreads haven't blown out in a massive way like we might have seen maybe a couple of years ago and that's intriguing from my perspective and from others too It's something I focus on every morning when I come in I look at spreads on both investment grade and high yield in the U.S. to gauge exactly that Do we start to price and credit risk How do we get credit risk when you get well capitalized companies that don't have near term maturities The next maturity wall isn't until 2025 So at that point it's credit even reflective of real risk If companies don't have to borrow money and borrowing costs rise does it matter That's the question A lot of people in fixed income are asking right now We're going to return to that a little bit later Futures right now on the S&P and on the NASDAQ into negative territory by 2.3% on the NASDAQ 100 on the S&P down by 1.8 Yields are higher on a ten year three 18 In this session today we had a little look at three 20 yields are higher by 5 basis points Foreign exchange the dollar the strongest going all the way back to 2002 So Euro dollar negative just a ten to 1% at one O 5 So many questions this morning including are we there yet Have we seen catharsis When do we get the full washout We will be talking about that with an incredible roster of surveillance guests Deutsche Bank's George sir velos joining us talking about the Euro a possible strength there which is interesting given the fact that it has been a one way trade in dollar and the Euro has absolutely broken down U.S. Secretary of the Treasury is going to be joining us Ottawa ariyama I am very interested to hear about what the U.S. is next steps are in terms of additional sanctions towards Russia but also with respect to China given the legacy tariffs there And Matt dizak of the Merrill Lynch and Bank of America private bank talking about how much is already priced in with respect to treasury yields Okay let's say that that's the case but is there a non linear move from three and a half percent or three and a quarter percent on the ten year to 4% At 8 a.m. we get Atlanta fed president Rafael bostic joining us on Bloomberg television with our own Michael McKee talking about possibly some of the guidance and frankly I want to know about what they think about the market's reaction to fed chair Powell's press conference last week And at 2 p.m. meta Facebook is opening its first physical store the metastore in burlingame California You can go and live in a universe that's far more certain and less valid than the one that we currently live in The reason why I'm actually interested It's not exactly that It's because the shares are down nearly 40% NASDAQ shares down more than 20% year to date Where does the growth come from John For these growth names given how much has already been priced in and given what we're seeing in China and frankly what a lot of people are saying is going to be a global growth slowdown And the problem is and Lisa thank you is that Tom some of these names are actually still generating decent growth And yet they're being absolutely pummeled in the stock market Well this is important And I think there's a lot of growth out there and you wonder what do you do And we're not going to give investment advice here John But to your point again on Friday there seem to be two markets Those of profit surviving holding on and a lot of others just absolutely powdered John before we get to our wonderful guest Bloomberg dollar index since February 24th the invasion of Iraq up 6.7% the call of the year so far is David fok Landau Michael perverse is going to join us now Some founder and CEO of tour back in capital advisers Michael can you make the case for the end of multiple rewriting in this equity market I think by my math John I think we've given up about three and a half P points this year to date off those lifetime highs back at the end of last year By buying masses we're going to sort of call it a three to 4% maybe three to 5% ten year yield By my math we get to another one to possibly two PE points And at that point I think we're really done I think my bigger question though is that the cross asset volatility conditions right now are extraordinarily robust and dynamic And I think they're so you guys were talking about these shocks from supply chains and some shocks from oil which the fed has limited ability to address And I think one of the things that's going to help is only going to reinforce this very high rate volatility It's not just rates at three volatility And if the cross volatility surface is that high I just wondered if there's so much dust kicked up in the air and there's so much uncertainty about what the risk free rate is going to be over the next period of.

John fed Tom Keene Jonathan farrow Lisa Abraham Lisa Tom Keane Sam Jonathan farrow Michael pervis George sir velos China ariyama Matt dizak Morgan Stanley
"jonathan farrow" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

02:07 min | 6 months ago

"jonathan farrow" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"More ahead on this daybreak Middle East This has been that When will you be able to go to a meeting where nobody smells like hand sanitizer who knows but we can give you the latest business and financial news Fragrance free Plus tease out some of what you just said Are there tools in the toolbox for the fed Does that point to the need for continued monetary support Bloomberg radio the Bloomberg business app and Bloomberg radio dot com You do realize the mark that this is having on a younger generation Bloomberg the world is listening Start your market day with Bloomberg surveillance The bond market it's a really interesting soup game Jonathan farrow and Lisa Abramovich Isn't your base case the worst case scenario Who says finance can't be fun Who's it to zoo guys Which one of us Bloomberg's surveillance must listen must watch I think they made a great decision separated us both We did mornings at 7 eastern on Bloomberg radio and Bloomberg television When you reorganize and declutter we're probably the first thing you decide to keep Is there any serious contemplation of sanctions against China detailed financial and business reporting Tell us more about your customers and how they're doing now Expert analysis You're basically just changing a $5 bill into 5 ones Definitely essential Looking at high yield where does that take you these days Bloomberg radio the Bloomberg business app and Bloomberg radio dot com Bloomberg the world is listening The composer Joseph Haydn famously said I listened more than I studied It sounds like a law school hypothetical Here in Bloomberg it's the same thing Do you maintain that low rate regime Can you see our two years How do you build a strategy with that eventuality in mind Experts information news The push sets up a potential fight What do we know about how it will go public Bloomberg radio the Bloomberg business app and Bloomberg radio dot com Bloomberg the world is listening.

Bloomberg Jonathan farrow Lisa Abramovich Bloomberg radio Middle East fed Joseph Haydn China com Bloomberg
"jonathan farrow" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

05:39 min | 6 months ago

"jonathan farrow" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"All right thanks you just heard our simulcast on TV and radio talking this Abramovich and Jonathan farrow that fed me second fed meeting of the year where you all been looking forward to it And we got that march rate increase as expected I think what's interesting is what they have talked about in terms of growth here Jay Powell talk about what he thought was a strong growth forecast but also moving up their inflationary expectations but longer term the expectation is inflation comes down again I've been tracking the markets here Tim and Charlie broke down the numbers But it looks like the equity market based on my calculations and just as the news of the fed announcement was coming out at two 15 Wall Street time We are higher in terms of where stocks were prior to that announcement So we've definitely seen a bounce back after initial sell off And it looks like that tenure has settled down to where it was prior to the fed news The two year the shorter end of the yield curve Close to where it was a little bit higher Well let's go back to the equity market because I think that this was a really important point for at least equity investors when Powell said quote the economy is very strong and well positioned to handle tighter monetary policy It was at that point that equity started moving high recording to our Bloomberg live blog team when it comes to the what the FOMC chair was saying and what markets we're doing because it was pretty remarkable as soon as the statement came out We saw a real sell off in equities Yeah we did initially but we've seen the bounce back And if you look at the yield curve we saw the yield curve between 5 and ten years invert after the FOMC decision right after it And the 5 to 30 year yield curve just a little bit about 30 minutes ago The curve extends its flattening to under 25 basis points So this is what's key We're watching that That inversion especially when it comes to two and ten and what it tells us about the potential for a recession And so we've talked about that in particular Right now though yields like we said kind of staying where they were the bid up to it but down from some of the spikes we saw right after that fed decision Okay so the fed raising interest rates by a quarter percentage point signaling hikes at all 6 remaining meetings this year launching a campaign to tackle the fastest inflation in four decades We got the dot plot The median projection was for the target rate to end 2022 at about 1.9% kind of in line with bets but then rise caroled a 2.8% in 2023 Yeah this is what's kind of interesting in our live blog on the fed really pointed this out They're like wow look at that inflation forecast 4.3% from the end of this year A major overshoot Is that transitory Well that's the question They still have it coming down to 2.3% in 2024 It's a few years from now but that's the expectation that it writes itself And then when it comes to growth I mean back in the December forecast they were looking at more like 4% for this year Now it's down to 2.8% So what does it mean in real terms We just heard from our TV colleagues that do these numbers really add up does it make sense So this is what we're all going to have to be guessing and maybe waiting for the next fed meeting but also the jobs report because higher rates are probably going to mean a higher unemployment rate So what is the appetite for Jay Powell the fed when it comes to that Well that next fed meeting is happening on May 4th So that's what we have to look forward to then Hey let's not bring in Lizzie Ann Saunders chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab She joins us on the phone from Naples Florida What is your big takeaways after watching fed share pal just now for the last hour and a half Yeah so obviously the move they made with raising rates is not at all a surprise I think it was the relatively optimistic assessment He gave of the economy in light of what has been growing concerns about recession now We have to keep in mind that the fed broadly fed shares specifically haven't necessarily been the best forecasters of recessions are often sort of whistling past the proverbial graveyard And so but I think that is probably the key takeaway as he doesn't see recession risk is particularly high at this point I mean Liz do you find first of all great to have you here And you and I have talked about lots of market cycles over the past many years And I do wonder how you see this one right You've seen strains and stresses in the system I think going back to the you know we talk about the financial crisis How do you see this market cycle How would you describe it I think it's different in so many ways not least being what interestingly is no longer front page news which is the virus And that's just really turned topsy turvy Any traditional analysis of what the business cycle looks like the fact that most of what we're seeing in the economy not least being inflation is much more typical of a late cycle phenomenon yet if you were to just look at the calendar relative to when we went into the COVID recession you would think we would be earlier in the cycle We also know that the fed is now launched off to zero bound at a point where inflation is raging and growth expectations for the first quarter are quite low And the yield curve is quite flat So the background conditions for the fed to start raising interest rates this is not what you typically see Now whether or not that means there's a greater chance of the so called policy mistake I think it's easier to.

Jay Powell fed Jonathan farrow FOMC Abramovich Lizzie Ann Saunders Charlie Bloomberg Powell Tim Charles Schwab Naples Florida Liz
"jonathan farrow" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

01:30 min | 6 months ago

"jonathan farrow" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"The only way to start the morning is with optimism The jobs recovery was sluggish A lot of people agree on that Bloomberg surveillance with Tom Keene Jonathan farrow and Lisa Romero Finally we got some Abramovich gloom to get in there The ultimate south signal might be At least the capitulates Bloomberg surveillance and must watch Lisa your data point go Tom you're great Never change We see mornings at 7 eastern on Bloomberg radio and Bloomberg television There are a lot of ways to look at the world right now Interesting that you've got an overweight on Hong Kong And the more of them you can access the better What has to be his strategy perspective Who's doing school best Clarity How do we get it so that the benefits get to everybody Expertise He seems to have exactly the right combination It's character plus policy Bloomberg radio the Bloomberg business app and Bloomberg radio dot com Bloomberg the world is listening Breaking news first Or in Ukraine The U.S. says Russia has asked China for military equipment to support its invasion The European Union is set to impose more sanctions on Russia Imports of some steel and iron products were desperate flight of people in Ukraine to try and escape the current spiking gas prices largely to fall to Vladimir Putin For the latest headlines and the effect on the markets Stay with Bloomberg radio the Bloomberg business app and Bloomberg radio dot com I.

Tom Keene Jonathan farrow Lisa Romero Bloomberg radio Bloomberg Bloomberg television Lisa Tom Hong Kong Ukraine Russia European Union China U.S. Vladimir Putin
"jonathan farrow" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

07:51 min | 1 year ago

"jonathan farrow" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Growth as well It doesn't need to be inflationary I'm not worried about revenue There's certainly plenty of demand out there pretty much across the board The issue is can that demand be fulfilled This is Bloomberg surveillance with Tom Keene Jonathan farrow and Lisa Abramovich A bit of risk aversion this Wednesday from New York City for our audience worldwide Good morning good morning This is Bloomberg surveillance live on TV and radio alongside Tom Keane and Lisa brahmin I'm Jonathan Ferro This Wednesday futures negative 53 we're down on the S&P 1.2% Tom keen on the NASDAQ which M1 point four We are down 1.4% It's moving out there as well And John as you said in the last hour you go to the currency dynamics as well What about the thundering silence of the weak dollar crew I mean it is stunning how that is stopped Strong dollar this morning Tom risk aversion the thread of higher yields is pretty clear isn't it You buy the green pack You find the U.S. dollar dollar index 90 through 94 ton We're positive four tenths of 1% there Right And the CDS market the credit default swap market some of those indicators showing attention Yes it folds into Washington As well John our guests coming up here really is pushed against weak dollar for months and months and months Margaret McCormack looks like a genius Looking forward to that Is it fair to say the epicenter of all of this is energy The percent are certainly natural gas in particular And when you take a look at the United Kingdom that's even more the epicenter where you see prices absolutely surging But there's a bigger story here And that is the transition of an economy at a time of a perfect storm I mean how many factors do we talk about Supply chain disruptions A pandemic And then you deal with the fact that we're trying to transition to greener energy You put them all together and it's a mess Do you remember the hopes of September Lisa Yes do you have a good fun What happened to September It turned into October And now we're talking about maybe it's not going to come She won 22 Well are we even though do people expect her to be a sort of moment where we realize yeah we're all able to go travel again I think that those hopes are fading And I think that's what we're feeling And that's just an idea of the conversation right now And here's the setup this Wednesday Let's put through the price section Equity futures are negative for the lower The S&P 500 is lighter by about 1.2% The NASDAQ is down 200 We're negative 1.4% into the bond market Given what is taking place in the equity market in the bond market right now they're not big moves rubber basis point of two on ten One 54 32 ton I walked in and was surprised I'm sorry I think I saw one 55 tenure They're not big moves but the vectors in the right direction It's the system Correlation It's persistent Yields have been moving higher off the lows of early August from one to 58 through one 54 and threatening to go even higher from here The FX market talked a little bit about that dollar strength and Lisa you wrote down one 1540 negative a half of 1% And to me the story of the yields and the story of the dollar go very much together the idea that here you have a risk off mood bonds are not a haven Why Because what is the threshold for the fed to start tapering the $120 billion of monthly bond purchases That threshold has gotten a lot lower 8 15 a.m. we get U.S. September 80 P employment change The expectation is for it to indicate perhaps a bit of a better jobs report on Friday However of course this is not necessarily that negative Again what is the threshold for the Federal Reserve A lot of people are saying that the bar has been lowered They want to stop buying bonds even if the economy is showing some strains So at 11 a.m. President Biden is hosting a meeting with business leaders including the CEOs of Bank of America and Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan to talk about the debt ceiling expect a lot of catastrophic discussion about the potential risks of defaulting does this matter to anyone You do see that the T Bill yields have been rising however still not indicating the same kind of distress that we saw throughout markets back in 2011 And today is the second day of the Bloomberg invest conference You've got a host of great speakers including Michael or Getty of Ares as well as Greg Johnson of Bridgewater and highs of Wellington management The interesting thing to me John has been what they have been saying about China The world's second biggest economy slowing down increasing regulatory risk they do not want to own it And I think that this is important The idea that Don Fitzpatrick of Soros came out and said we are not putting money into China right now She is not alone People rethinking their strategies at a time when they're looking for diversification but not at the risk of regulatory uncertainty to this degree Always brilliant here from Greg Jensen British water really looking forward to that Lisa thank you so much A classic risk of setup in G ten in foreign exchange looks like this Outperforming the yen and the Swiss sea That's why you've got today underperforming the commodity currencies The likes of the RC the likes of Norway that's also what you have today We need to talk about foreign exchange Your backdrop this morning a stronger dollar Mark McCormick a TV securities the global head of FX strategy joins us right now Mark a story of performance over narratives your line start there unpack that for me Yeah it's a great question because I think what we have is there's a lot of narratives There's narratives around real rates about central banks around stagflation reflation all these dynamics related to this kind of transition period we're going through as well And I think what the performance tells us is that currencies are respecting mean reversion They're trading off of mean reversion based strategies valuation positioning these things that are really kind of technical they sit behind the scenes but they're just not really sexy macro stories It's not really about the fed It's not really about what's going on in some of these global dynamics But the point is if you're trading FX a core strategy that focus on mean reversion plus growth plus terms of trade and plus the risk aversion dynamics we see is really the combination that's done great through this declaration period or this stagflation narrative through the summer So I think that's a big part of it is again thinking about what's driving FX in terms of performance and what's rewarding currencies versus what's being discussed as a narrative If there is an interest rate dynamic and then you go over to a flow analysis and Mark you've nailed this over the last year with dollar resilience Are we near big figure jump conditions in the major pairs I don't we are but we're also not This is where the performance analysis comes in The question is is does the move in these currencies reflect a risk premium Or are they moving with fundamentals And the flow side is really kind of what drive us away from fundamentals So when you think about Euro it does look it's screaming very cheap right now in terms of positioning short term valuation But again the flows can push us maybe to one 1450 one 15 But again there's not a dynamic here that we've seen Euro move lower at this magnitude where it's kind of validated by the move in the relationship it has to other macro drivers So that's where again the flow dynamics are important But if you look at the weakness in the end it is calibrated quite well with the weakness that we've seen or the relationship we have across yield curves and inflation dynamics in terms of trade shock that we're dealing with now So dollar yen moving higher is a bit of a more sticky trade relative to what we've seen in the Euro at least in the very short run How damaging is the strong dollar right now for emerging market currencies considering that this is exactly what they do not want to see A higher inflationary premium in developed markets certainly in the rates markets Right across the board is challenging and you can see it's probably challenging because if you look at the relationship of Euro in revenue we should remedy should be trading at 6 80 That's your historical correlation over a running couple of years So you can see that a lot of it is managed A lot of it is kind of coming through back in G ten It's probably running through gold prices as well You know some of these more liquid currencies You can see Koreas Been sold off quite aggressively So yeah I do think a big part of the relationship with EM is EM as a whole is going to underperform as markets are repricing the fed the real pricing rail rates They're dealing with stagflation But there are winners on a relative basis in EM If you think about central banks that are hiking if you look at growth stories that are generally okay if you look at the terms of trade shock and who wins the miters and the exporters and the.

Tom Keene Jonathan farrow Lisa Abramovich Tom Keane Lisa brahmin Jonathan Ferro Margaret McCormack Lisa John President Biden CEOs of Bank of America Don Fitzpatrick fed Greg Jensen
"jonathan farrow" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

04:56 min | 1 year ago

"jonathan farrow" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Alongside Lisa Promise. And Katie? Lance. I'm Jonathan Farrow. Some came back this in the capital data record market. Looks like this on the S and P basically unchanged advance in a couple of points by 0.4% into the bond market with your time in the curves steeper four basis points to 1 36 64. Little bit of feedback from the audience. Lisa Interesting how Pharaoh disappears and Thomas at work. Now Tom has gone and Pharaoh is working. Could it be That one and the same. I mean, it is true, and I put this out on Twitter. We have not been seen in the same room or Yeah, Who knows? I wondered the same thing. Maybe I just play split personality on the program and Run into the other room. You look really similar. So impression. I could see just you know, we should share what Katie said when she sat in the big chair earlier this morning. I have no idea what you're talking different. Kind of fit, wasn't it? Kaylie Euro dollar 1 18 61 negative Attention throw us under the bus. 60 would do such a thing Crude down about a dollar and change too. $68.03 were down by 1.8% are moving on guys and not getting in trouble. And I'm Green joins us now have the Kennedy school senior fellow make and it's been a while, but a story hasn't changed. In fact, the only thing I can think of that has changed is that we were all waiting for September. Now, seemingly, we're all waiting for 2022. What's your take on things? Yeah, I think that's right. I mean, the big question remains whether there's going to be inflation and it sustained inflation or not, And that question hasn't been remotely answered. There are data points supporting both sides of that story. We were all hoping a couple months ago that come September, kids will go back to school. We'd all go back to the office events would happen in person again. We'd be traveling again and that that's clearly not happening so Unfortunately, I think we're going to have to wait a bit longer and ride out this Delta variant wave to see what the fundamentals really look like Megan. We spent the last couple of weeks to having this discussion with economists who have all basically said. Stress all. Perhaps the consensus is that this is a recovery delayed and not derailed. But Peter Chair raised an important question about 10 minutes ago on this program as to whether the demand right now and the job openings in America, which is sky high. Do stay that way into next year. And the longer they're left unfilled that perhaps they do start to drift away and disappear altogether. Malcolm, You're an economist. What would you take be on that particular deliberate the moment. Yes. Look, I I think that it depends entirely on the viruses. All things have for the past year and a half. But I don't see us going back to shutting down the economy the same way we had before, in which case demand shouldn't win as significantly as some people fear. I think that much bigger concern is the supply constraint on workers. We saw that in the last jobs report. A lot of workers didn't want to go out and get jobs because they were concerned about the Delta variants. And that fit through into wage increases. What aren't which aren't necessarily a bad thing, but they do become a concern if they turn into a wage price spiral. I don't think that's happening yet. Average hourly earnings were a pretty significantly but average weekly earnings were down a bit because ours have cuts. You need both. Earnings and hours to increase for to maybe start to creep into a wage price spiral. That being said companies don't have the same pricing power that they used to. Workers don't have the same power that they used to negotiating power for wages. And so I just don't see that creeping in. Megan, How do you view the recent slowdown? The recent his appointments that we've seen in economic data is this simply a result of the delta vary it and we'll see renewed growth. Later on in the year, renewed momentum or is this something different? As Pete Sheer was talking about? Look. So from the very start of this pandemic. I've suggested the recovery might look like a Nike swoosh with a zigzag on the on the end of it, and I think we're seeing a bit of that zigzag like we did. Previously was shut downs and reopening. So I think a big piece of it is the delta variant. But I've also thought we'd get this bounce back and then a long, hard slog, and I think that might be creeping in. As well. So we've had kind of the brunt of the bounce back. We might get a bit more as we end up on the other side of this variant. We've But of course, new variants might come out as well. So I think it's a bit of both not to give you a typical economists who can video well, But then there's this other question about the supply chain disruptions which you mentioned in one of the biggest port operators came out. Over the weekend and said, Actually, the problem is, there's just too much consumption. People just are buying too much stuff, and that's fueled by the stimulus checks they've gotten. Do you think that that ultimately will be the solution that people will have to buy less stuff? Which is exactly what the economy Does not necessarily want or certainly nations do not want to see because they want this momentum. I don't think that's the concern. Actually, I think when demand is there then Cos you tend to invest and ramp up the supply chains, So I think that's much more likely than that. Consumers have to just Can seem left less..

Jonathan Farrow Katie Malcolm Pete Sheer September Thomas $68.03 0.4% Lance Kaylie Pharaoh Nike 1.8% America Peter Chair 2022 Tom Twitter next year Delta
"jonathan farrow" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

08:28 min | 1 year ago

"jonathan farrow" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"I'm Jonathan Farrow is the price action as we await numbers from Morgan Stanley Equity Futures Down 4 5/10 of 1%. And Here are the numbers from Morgan Stanley. Second Quarter net interest Income $1.87 billion. The estimate 1.77 billion Net Revenue. 14.8 billion. The estimate. 14 point 03 billion important numbers for Morgan Stanley Wealth management. Net Revenue 6.1 billion. The estimate 5.92 institutional investment banking revenue that comes at a 2.38 billion firmer than the estimated 2.6. Throwing a ton of numbers that you want to know that with me just one final round of numbers. I want to get the trading numbers, equity sales and trading revenue 2.83 billion. The estimate 2.5 billion, said, coming in hotter there, but lights are again It's another downside surprise when it comes to fixed income. Sales and trading. How many times we've seen that this week Revenue 1.68 billion the estimate 1.91 billion and Thomas Stock 90 77. We're down by about 1.83% in the pre market. This is a company that will we have adjustment this quarter. There's lots of moving parts here and in the beginning of their press release, John They really do emphasize that e trade Eaton Vance and on and on, So I think you've really got to be careful here, particularly about single point data points. I'm much more interested in ratios and a return on common equity of 18.6% or 19%, excluding all the Gorman has going on. Those are really not bad ratios. John. If you'll indulge me time, I think one number that will get people's attention, though they want to see it Equity 1000 trading revenue. However, Morgan Stanley's an important figure 2.83 billion that comes in hotter than expected the estimate 2.5. If you can bring up the stock in the premarket as we work our way through these numbers, the stock $90.77 were down about 1.83% when the British finally PASOK is leading our coverage of our earnings in the financial sector throughout most of this week. Should I just run me through it? He goes through the numbers right now. What jumps out to you? The equities trading number is, of course, very important for Morgan Stanley. Analysts expected that to come in less And Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan this quarter. In fact, they came in more than both of their peers that miss on fixed income trading. Remember Morgan Stanley brought in close to $3 billion worth of fixed income trading revenue just about a quarter ago? That was unheard of for Morgan Stanley just years ago. Now $1.6 billion. It's a fine print its a solid print. It's more than what James Gorman had been guiding for, but again less than analysts expected. So what to make of this trading slowdown, general? Across the street. The other thing Tom had mentioned that return on equity. It did beat analysts expectations. But the comparative story here is what analysts and investors will also be looking at here. John that compares to Goldman Sachs is return on equity of almost 24%. So this game of efficiency this game of market share continues to play on on Wall Street. I noticed down in footnote, 12, Mr Gorman says. This note was put together by people sitting in an office. That was a joke, Folks. Nationality. I e. T e Trade and Eaton Vance and the rest are they? Bolton's? Are they German? Part of the of the earnings story that a large part of the company huge part of the company time? Because we're going to watch Morgan Stanley go through this integration throughout the year, we're going to want to see how that impacts the investment bank have they been keeping up the focus at their investment bank? While integrating these two businesses as we know this M and a market this E. C. M market ultra hot markets in which Morgan Stanley for years has competed neck and neck with Goldman Sachs. Morgan Stanley Market cap has surpassed markets Goldman Sachs, its price to book ratio is more rich than Goldman Sachs is trading at right now. So the trade off is truly staggering as Morgan Stanley's texture of the bank changes will deny. That's exactly why I wanted to go because I looked at Goldman Sachs shares in premarket trading just as a comparison there, also lower by about 8/10 of a percent. But it's just a knee jerk reaction is more from Morgan Stanley. Even though for the most part, these are beats across the board. Except for that fixed trading. What do you make of that? Where people seeing the advantage shifting to Goldman Sachs here? Well, for now, they're cheaper, right? And that efficiency story is not for nothing right? We're in an era where inflation on wages is happening across all of Wall Street. Competition is happening. I mean, twice this week alone. I've spoken to bankers choosing between working at either of these two banks. So that investment bank is is no small story and how they pay those bankers is no small story, something Morgan Stanley has in its advantages. The headwinds were seeing inside the tail winds were seeing in wealth management, something Jon Pruzan talked about last quarter was the idea that it's not just this e trade retail frenzy that's feeding activity. It's also the financial advisors across the U. S that's dealing with their wealthy clients. Lending is higher when it comes to wealthier clients. Morgan Stanley is trying to build that bank when it comes to their wealthier clients. Let's see how much they're able to do that, as we know their peers are also trying to compete heavily when it comes to high net worth loans. Charlie Bassett. Thank you so much, much more honest, Garcia Allison Williams joining us for the banks, some here And a bit shot. I think we need to pause and just take a moment for James Gorman in his best practices, which Shonali reviewed there is you know it passes by in business media is another moment. But John, these are Titanic statements about what Morgan Stanley is accomplished over the last 10 years. Even before Mr Gorman's tenure, stocks had a great run. Here today as well. And I hate to reduce Mr Coleman's Tenuta. What's happened yet to date on, But we're up about 35%. I think that's worth noting. As you look at the quota for lower of 1.45%. There's a difference here isn't there between what Morgan Stanley has been doing more recently? And what Goldman Sachs hasn't done well recently and what people expect government sex to do, which is to make an acquisition. Some conversation in the previous our John just one anecdote here. There's a set of stairways nearest CEO Hiding role at Davos. I stood on that stairway John with John Mack after the trading Tobacco of Morgan Stanley. Let's be direct. They had to go to the Japanese to save the ship. I mean, maybe that's an exaggeration, but we'll go with it for morning TV. John. What Gorman is done is completely underestimated. He went to conservative route with persistency with his mathematical acuity and shit. Ali mentions, you know. Are they cleaning Goldman's clock? No, that's not accurate. But this is true excellence. And here comes the next act. Tell me the next act is an expensive one a lot of investment in a lot of acquisitions, and they've got to work out. You think they will? Well, I have my own opinion, which nobody cares about. But let's be clear. E Trade and Eaton Vance are two totally different cultures. And that's going to be an acquisition project of culture as well as finance someone who knows that as Amy was Silverman with RBC Capital Markets, joining us for too short a visit. This morning, Amy, you look at derivative dynamics right now. What are the four cross moments say about this are the equity market. Yes, it's certainly an odd equity market, and to be quite honest is giving me a little deja vu because it feels a little bit like August of last year, especially with the leadership, you know, kind of going back to that mega cap tech trends. I will tell you that in the options market, we're starting to see a lot of options Volume trading again. And these sang Man type names an apple and if you look at the playbook to last year, typically that positive momentum just begets more momentum. August late August, negative real yields deeply negative real yields. I mean, that's the parallel here is you mentioned? Do you think that's what's setting the tone? More broadly, just what happens in the bond market? Yeah, definitely, You know, Look, that's that's part of it. And then you know, the other fact that I think is important is when you look for made to June. A lot of asset managers really missed out. When you know the NASDAQ heavy They started to outperform again because obviously they had gotten rid of those. Mega mega tech growth, you know, in favor of more cyclical names, and, you know, obviously that underperformance means there's going to be a lot of ketchup. Now, if these names continue to outperform, and so we'll start to see those skews heavily in the options market. One reason why it's always fabulous to speak with you is because you understand the positioning and where things are sort of more heavily weighted..

Morgan Stanley Jon Pruzan James Gorman Amy RBC Capital Markets Charlie Bassett Goldman Sachs John 2.38 billion Tom 19% 18.6% JP Morgan $90.77 1.45% $1.6 billion 2.83 billion John Mack Jonathan Farrow 14.8 billion
"jonathan farrow" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

02:19 min | 1 year ago

"jonathan farrow" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Mrs and Verizon's entire media division. A unit, which also includes tech crunch could fetch as much as $5 billion. Verizon wants to focus on wireless and building out its five G network. Gina's her veddy Bloomberg radio Every week day Matt Miller and polls Weenie ask a few of the top market makers and analysts for their opinions. And while it's polite to listen to everyone, does it make sense that Tesla is worth $660 billion in market cap is more productive to listen to. The best. What's the data that you guys really look at? Bloomberg Markets weekday mornings at 10 Eastern? What do you expect from Jerome Powell on Bloomberg Radio? The Bloomberg business happened. Bloomberg radio com Bluebeard, the world is listening. When we say Bloomberg brings you the latest financial and business news anywhere we've actually given the matter quite a bit of thought, Let's get now to a guest joining us from Bangkok. She joins us on the phone from the Hudson Valley Bloomberg Radio the Bloomberg business have in Bloomberg radio Com. What is that moral leadership look like to you? At number the world is listening. Broadcasting 24 hours a day at Bloomberg, calm on the Bloomberg business after It's pretty simple to recognize that we're in the midst of a boom here in the U. S economy is very resilient, and now it's working with private sector and the public sector. Whether you're growing up 9% of whether you're growing at 6% is facing the labor market. I think it's going to remain very strong for at least the next two quarters. Question is How long is transit? Great? Is it a couple of months? Is it a year or 18 months? It's certainly not long term until the tax changes happened. You ignore them. But the reality is the markets are ignoring this'd is Bloomberg Surveillance with Tom Keene, Jonathan Ferrell and Lisa Graham awaits. Good morning, everyone. Jonathan Farrow, Lisa. Tell.

Tom Keene Jonathan Farrow Matt Miller Jonathan Ferrell Lisa Graham Jerome Powell Verizon $660 billion Gina Bangkok Lisa 6% Tesla 18 months 9% U. S a year Bloomberg Radio $5 billion Weenie
"jonathan farrow" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

01:55 min | 1 year ago

"jonathan farrow" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"I'm Jonathan Farrow. This is coming with me. This'd Bloomberg planting a flag. Now, the latest news from New York City and around the world hears Michael Barr. Lisa John. Thank you very much. President Biden signed executive orders that, he said, We'll slow the spread of Corona virus and ramp up vaccinations. Have the signing event. The president said his administration's plan will take cooperation from both parties were in a national emergency. This time we treat it like one together the national plan. As the United States of America. The covert tracking project reports the pandemic killed more than 4400 people in the U. S. On Inauguration Day, Dr Anthony Valachi, the U. S government's foremost expert on infectious disease. Said he feels somewhat liberated working for President Joe Biden after Donald Trump tried to sideline him Valachi during his first briefing as a member of the Biden administration. Was now the infectious disease expert recalled having to contradict Trump at times, but it was very clear that there were things that were said be it regarding things like That really was an uncomfortable because they were not based On scientific fact, Dr Valachi says there were consequences if you contradict it. Then President Trump Resting. National Guard personnel were forced out of the U. S Capitol yesterday and move. This sparked outrage. The troops were abruptly moved out of the capital resting area and into a parking garage nearby. Many lawmakers were upset after images emerged of the troops sleeping on concrete with few toilets or electrical outlets. Troops related move back to the Capitol complex lie from the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers Studios. This is global news 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg. Quick take powered by more than 2700, journalists and analysts in more.

President Biden Dr Anthony Valachi President Trump Resting Bloomberg Donald Trump president Bloomberg Interactive Brokers Jonathan Farrow Biden administration Lisa John New York City National Guard Michael Barr United States America executive U. S
"jonathan farrow" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

05:13 min | 1 year ago

"jonathan farrow" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Still Jonathan Farrow, but the two of them on there, count on Hyde is this morning, Caroline. Even I operating in two different time zones. This market to this market living in 2021. We've gotta work through a brutal here and now on both sides of the Atlantic. Yeah, when you're looking at the covert headlines when you're looking at the lockdowns, which are coming to an end on your side of the Atlantic at some point, but then higher tier systems. What does any of that even translate into junk But I couldn't wouldn't want to get up early for anyone else. But the moment I am seeing some market action that just speaks to this rotation, not having that much longevity this weekend. Take the child. Caroline, This is beautiful. This is much better shall uncover female. Thomas. What I give back. You could do that. As I go through the markets. That's just perfect timing. Let's get to the price action this Friday morning we do head towards another week of games on the S and P 500. We said to add just a little bit of weight. So we're up about nine on the S and P 500. These aren't big moves up a quarter of 1% of the S and P Posture this morning just a little bit more defensive small caps on the performing big tech outperforming the FX market. We reclaim 1 19. We stay there. You're adorable 19 and about 20 of about 1/10 of 1% huge calls coming through. Around Europe in the euro for 2021. Do we have a repeat of what we saw back in 2017 in the bond market? You do have that ball flying around in the Treasury market. That means the long game this beer tens of thirties you ought to lower their by two or three basis points on a 10 year. 20.8553%. That's the story the market let's bring in our guest this morning through Madis met life investment management chief Market strategist drew fantastical catch up with you, mate. Let's just talk about the bond market to begin with. We talked through the last 10 years in the last cycle and our inability to get your tire much higher our inability in Europe to generate any kind of recovery that actually led to higher interest rates. In fact, they kept going lower through the cycle. Why's this recovery going to be any different group? When I talk to people, I think what's different about this recoveries that everyone's talking about the risk of inflation going forward? Andre actually surprised me because I think when we do the math, you know, we come up with kind of inflation normalizing posts that posts this crisis. But I think a lot of people have it and their in their minds that this is an inflationary event. Longer term on that the period we're living in, you know, more closely resembles kind of the Vietnam era in the United States that seventies error that led Tolo that, you know inflation picking up You have a fed? That's very aggressive. You have government stimulus, which You know, we already had rounds of and we'll probably have more rounds of And then of course you have you have Ah, big amount, dislocation and things like the labor market. And so you know, you combine those factors and people begin to worry a little bit more about inflation than they used to. We got into the eighties, the end of the seventies, The 10 year yield was about 13%. Right now it's 85 basis points. That's a nominal yield granted, but through Western concern Around inflation. Why is it not being priced into this bond market and I was part of the conversation? I'm having them daily as well. It's not in the market right now. I think because people have have kind of you know, this is the boy who cried Wolf scenario. People like myself have talked about inflation risk coming out 2008. We were wrong. You know, other people you know, talked about as well. And so people have kind of got it into their heads. That inflation is this thing that you know the old people on Wall Street talk about, but that doesn't really exist. On. You know, you hate to say well, this time is going to be different, But I do think that there are some reasons to believe inflation might take higher. But let's just normalize it. You know the idea that This movement and yields is not part of kind of the movement yield we saw for the last couple of decades. Right. This is this is an aberration across the trend on it. It means that most likely the most likely, Sarah. My mind is that inflation was higher Yields move higher. We probably don't go above the pre coverted highs right Member at the end of 2019 10 year, U. S. Treasury yields were just below 2%. So you know, even just the normalization is 110 basis points or so. On. I think that's something that's more realistic or more reasonable to consider. I'm not worried about a 4% 10 year yield any time soon. If you want to call that being worried, I think I'd be I'd be moving money at that point. One inflation rate, though, do you see on the higher side? How hot does it run? I'm looking for normalization of inflation s 02% or so you know, it's um And you know it could go a little higher for a temporary period of time. But I think the question people have is if we see 2% inflation is the Fed going to react, and I think pretty clearly the answer is no. They've told us no. On but worries me and I think what were his other people about that? Is this idea that an organization that really couldn't orchestrate an inflationary push, or, you know, has had more difficulty pulling down inflation. Moving inflation around the way that they want has the ability to kind of maneuver inflation, you know, with that fine degree of precision, and I think you know, letting it run hot for awhile. Sounds great. How do you know when you're supposed to pull back?.

Caroline Europe Atlantic Jonathan Farrow Treasury Fed Hyde Madis Thomas Andre U. S. Treasury Wolf Tolo Sarah Vietnam United States
"jonathan farrow" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

06:10 min | 2 years ago

"jonathan farrow" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"It is possible way could have negative growth in this resurgence gets bad enough and mobility falls off enough, so the next couple of quarters is going to be very challenging. We knew that things were going too slow down after the bounce back in the third quarter. You're seeing that in the data now, Robert Kaplan down instead. President and Loretta Mess the Federal Bank of Cleveland president, speaking of Bloomberg in the last 24 hours alongside some King Lisa Promise son Jonathan Farrow have to say I've been lucky to catch up with President Nestor to three times over the last nine months or so, alongside Michael McKee, Tom. Even other momentum in the U. S economy has been really quite impressive, very impressive for that matter going into the back end of the year. The tone. The president Mr took in that interview, long winded responses, but very direct, and they went towards us. Let me be clear about that They were towards Capitol Hill in Washington D. C. Yes, pleading for more fiscal help. It is their geography. Jonah's. I've done a lot of reading on this over the years and folks for those you particularly international when they went down Madison Avenue to J. P. Morgan and said, Mr Morgan, You gotta fix this. They set up the Fed, and the only way they could do with John was the massive distrust of agricultural America with urban America, which basically meant New York, So they set up the regional feds. And you know, Mike, it's John. It's real simple. They have each of them a character in President Mestre is colored by the challenges of the manufacturing Midwest out of Cleveland. As well. Terry Wiseman knows all this history with Macquarie, director of Global Currency's teary 11 Year note you talk about after the Biden effect. What's the Biden effect? And what happens after Think it was referring in the note to the effect of the bite administration on the relationship between the U. S and China. This was not really a Domestic issues so much as it was an internationalist. You believe that with abiding administration coming into office relationship with China will change. It will be a lot less of commercial Combatants. It will not be about imposing tariffs on imports into the U. S. Will be more human rights oriented. It might be more sanctions oriented. Mark a shift. I think journal. The markets will life that there'll be fewer surprises. But there will also be fewer surprises for China as well on gets one reason why the dollar has depreciated relative to the yuan in the last few weeks. Anticipation of this effect coming out of the Joe Biden administration. Terry we still have 60 days at least before we deal with the Biden administration. Then talk about what happens after that, And in the near term, there is a dissidents that's growing between the Federal Reserve and the Treasury secretary, Steve Mnuchin, that emerged yesterday about the extra funds that were allocated to the Fed. Under the cares act. I would love your take on how significant it is that the Fed might not have as much money to commit to municipal bonds to corporate debt to possibly lending to businesses. Yeah. So I'm gonna try to downplay The this dispute or this quarrel between the Fed and the Treasury. It's not that it's not important. It's not that it can affect market sentiment adversely. Clearly it can and we saw when the news came out last night. Stock markets while was a little bit but they did recover. Reason. Putting it into context is because there are much more grave situations lining up for the U. S economy in the next few weeks. One of them plainly is this fiscal cliff. We may see at the end of the year. The moratorium on foreclosures on student debt relief on the extra unemployment funds expire. And when you think about that the size of that fiscal cliff It really makes these quarrel between the Fed and the Treasury looks small. It's small potatoes compared to the stuff that's happening on the physical side. Terry. How much damage do you think we should do to this economy but wake up again this morning. Two more good news around the vaccine. Fizer could get an emergency authorization that could be used. We could be seeing vaccinations next month. In America. How concerned are you about the damage we could do between now and really getting a ramp up in that vaccine rollout? Yeah. So this is a battle between the forces of light and the forces of darkness. The forces of light are are the vaccine, its efficacy on the speed with which it can be rolled out, not just in the U. S. But globally, the forces of darkness. Are is the fiscal cliff. I just mentioned that the spread of the pandemic itself and the so called second wave that we're seeing in the North had 13 hemisphere winter. I don't know how the markets will adjudicate or settle out the this war. This battle between these two forces. My suspicion, however, is that the forces of light will win out. In other words, the fact that there's going to be a vaccine by the spring that will be pretty pretty dramatically distributed not just in the U. S. But in the Northern Hemisphere that will serve as an anchor for market sentiment, even though we will see a double dip and growth in the fourth quarter and early part of the first quarter. I also am figuring into all of this, the prospect that Congress will come to terms With the administration and passed some sort of physical relief between now Inauguration day that will help to at least alleviate part of that fiscal cliff that we're looking at at the end of this year. Here. You talk about lightness and darkness. It sounds like a nerd episode of the Man DeLorean. We'll have to see how that goes. Terry. I noticed on Bloomberg Dollar Index. We are back to January of 2015. Basically the dollars gone nowhere for five years. Which way does a cut or does it stay in this remarkable range? So we actually think that the dollar is gonna weaken going forward. It may not be a dramatic weakening. I know that some houses on the street are talking about a 20% decline in the value of the dollars index between now let's I don't mean to interrupt, but why is Steve wrote wrong? About the dramatic decline because there's certain advantages that the dollar will still have even in abiding administration..

Terry Wiseman Federal Reserve Joe Biden China Cleveland president America Treasury Steve Mnuchin Biden administration President President Nestor Bloomberg President Mestre Robert Kaplan Federal Bank Jonah J. P. Morgan
"jonathan farrow" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

04:36 min | 2 years ago

"jonathan farrow" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"TV and radio alongside Tom Kane. I'm Jonathan Farrow. Lisa Brown. It's degenerating over the weekend. It's 11 year old. She's back with us. She promises us. She's older than that. We'll catch up a little bit later with Lisa about talking your equity market right now of 16 points, the S and P 500. We advance 1/2 of 1% 4 months of gains. We had some weight to it on the first training day for the month of August, typically a volatile one. It's quite this morning heals up to basis points on a 10 year to 0.54%. Tom Keep talking about it gonna come back. You're a total 1 17 31 19 in Friday session. Then we unwind. Some of that dollar weakness. The euro coming back down 4/10 of 1% Pay rose Friday. Tom Just a compromise away. I've got to say it's a big one hugely anticipated, I really can't say conversation. A conversation John through the weekend and this morning as well is gearing towards a Friday reported them before that, the claims report. A CZ. Well, John on the dollar. I think it's really extraordinary. The quiet that's out there and you know some people. The strong dollar the resilient dollar people finally having their moment after 89 10 Tough day, HSBC Look, I always think it's too premature to see a full 5% move in the dollar Index Dollar index of my ad There's still north 90 and to sit here and start saying it's the structural move you've been waiting for. Right. The reserve currency, the US dollar, We're moving away from it. It's just too early to make those conclusions. Tom Marvin birth of Barclays, agreeing with HSBC on the resilient dollars right now, to begin our week of economic coverage here on the simulcast on radio and TV worldwide is Ethan Harris. He's a Bank of America with authority on the transfer from Greenspan. Bernanke with this wonderful book, and also on absolutely nailing. The non V shaped recovery of 7 4008 No major house did better than Bank of America on that call Ethan once again, we don't have a V shaped recovery. What kind is it? Well, we have two months the followed probably by three months of El. That's what it looks like. And then hopefully from there, we started picking up again. But I mean, if you look broadly if the data Clearly the resurgence in the virus caused the a little bit of pulling back and the economy and July and we expect things to be kind of flattish for the next few months. What is your unemployment statistic for Friday? I mean, people are verbal ing a 10 ish percent. How much of a mystery is that statistic? Well, I mean, the employment report is going to be could be anything as we know. Economists have done a terrible job of forecasting in the last couple months, And that's because there's so much cross currents in terms of firing and hiring in the labor market. I mean, our guests at this point is the unemployment rate dips below 11% so it comes down to 10 7 To put that in perspective, that would be worse than any months during the Great recession 10,009 So it's great that it's coming down, but there's still a long way to go. Nathan, Did you ever think that you'd have a payrolls guests of positive one million, but then also right in the line afterwards, there's a risk of a negative print. I mean, just how one president and it's this moment for this big report this Friday. Yeah. I mean, it's a product of the impressive nature of the crisis you have, you know, cos that laid off you know, 20 million people, and now they're hiring some of them back. On the data. We look at the comments Look at that's supposed to tell us what these numbers going to be. Just doesn't really tell the whole story. And so we know we try hard. I mean, every comes looking at these numbers over time. And we're still getting big forecast error, So it's it's just unprecedented time and so unprecedented volatility, Ethan any seasonal quirks that we should be focused on going into this print? Well, you do have a little bit of that you've got. You know you don't have the usual shutdown of the auto sector in the summer s O. That could help a little bit. We could. We got perils coming in at a 1,000,000 I think the consensus is a little higher than that. But But those kind of smaller seasonal stories are overshadowed by you know, Like I said, all the volatility of the number I would view 1,000,000 is OK. I mean, this is remember payroll surveys taken fairly early in the month. So it's reflecting how the economy is doing in late June and early July. Things have weakened since then, so it's believe it or not, it's slightly old news. Thiss July peril number. It's quite clear that the labor market is weakening. And there's faith at Washington will come to some sort of.

Ethan Harris Lisa Brown Tom Kane Bank of America Jonathan Farrow HSBC US John Bernanke Washington president Nathan Greenspan
"jonathan farrow" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

01:34 min | 2 years ago

"jonathan farrow" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Tom Keen, Jonathan Farrow, Lisa Abramowitz and the names that shape the world's markets speak with Professor Schiller of Yale University Bloomberg Surveillance. Listen today at Bloomberg dot com. Business described on apple podcasts. In a world pandemic. Wild theories about is beginning to percolate. But there is one source that's expert honest and current Bloomberg surveillance With Tom Keen, you try to avoid the losers. Jonathan Farrow, We've got the potential for the Value Trap and Lisa Franois. What's the risk for financial stability? Bloomberg surveillance. Weekday mornings at seven Eastern on Bloomberg Radio. The Bloomberg business happened. Bloomberg radio dot com and now watch us on Bloomberg television. You know your body and you know when something's off when something doesn't feel quite right. Don't ignore symptoms like fatigue, joint pain, rashes and fever. They could be signs of Lupus. Listen to your body. Take care of yourself. We're here to help you take control of your help. Learn how at the fierce take control dot org's brought to you by the Lupus Foundation of America and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Enjoy. New Jersey Institute of Technology Makes Innovation Happen. N G I T faculty meant toward Christoph Camacho when he was a student, helping him co found a startup and patent a device that uses drone technology for reforestation and to collect valuable data for land management..

In New York City hot, steamy four day - Ga Test 2

Bloomberg Surveillance

02:18 min | 2 years ago

In New York City hot, steamy four day - Ga Test 2

"There's gonna be a lot more unemployment coming on a ship from what was temporary unemployment into permanent. To some degree. These companies are now starting to hunker down for a longer, more protracted recovery on so they have to right size. Their business is not gonna turn on right away, and we'll find out some things that were turned on, and we turned back off for a little while. It's gonna be bumpy. Mrs Bloomberg Surveillance with Tom Keen, Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. Good morning, everyone. Jonathan Farrow, Lisa Branson, Tom Keen on Bloomberg Radio, Bloomberg television Worldwide hot and steaming in New York City hot, steamy four day conversations in Europe to some level of success. We'll talk about that in a moment. And then, of course, the stimulus discussion and Washington and all this wrapped around A market that will never, ever ever go down Futures up 25 down futures up 1 86 We have a 23 print and the vic's now John just to go to the equity markets for one teensy weensy second. I know you want to talk Europe. I mean, come on, John, 32 to 23 on the vics is really something. It's an equity markets got away from so many people, Tom, particularly big tech side to see the nasty 125% higher through 2020. Amazon, up 70%. Microsoft Apple Up 35% We have had Monster moves and the South side has struggled to keep up through all of it. John your thoughts on Europe use did a tour of duty in Frankfurt, Germany, Viscerally felt that tension on the continent. How historic is this? A story? Important moment, Europe has demonstrated or demonstrating that they can borrow what the commission level and distribute grants the places like Italy that was unthinkable in the last crisis. What it's what many people wanted to see. I don't think it's that golden bullet, though, Tom, this is not the end of fiscal integration. This is part of the journey. And that's how you should view it. It would take a while for this story to build the keyword here, though, is crisis. It took a crisis to take this step forward. I imagine it might take another crisis down the road to take the next important step forward for the continents are Maria today. Oh, in Brussels. And of course, it's been an exhausting for days. Lisa Bram. Once I look at all that's going on. And really the fixed income market is the litmus paper off this system. What of the spread Barca do off this agreement? Oh, well, you can see that there's definitely risk on and it

Tom Keen Europe Jonathan Farrow John Mrs Bloomberg Lisa Bram Bloomberg Bloomberg Radio Lisa Abramowitz Vics Lisa Branson Amazon New York City Frankfurt Microsoft Washington Italy Germany Brussels
"jonathan farrow" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

03:52 min | 2 years ago

"jonathan farrow" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"I'm Jonathan Farrow on this Tuesday morning, Tom Kane. It is gift back Tuesday in the equity market and a reminder Of the bumpy stuff and start world that we live in right now. With Malbin, Australia governed back into lock down for six weeks. I put that in the script in the six AM I agree, John, the Melbourne, Australia. Maybe that's a path to come. I don't know the details on the other side of the planet. But this is a serious thing, folks to see a new lock down in Melbourne. Some other difficulty news around the world on the cases of the virus, John even though the death statistics are actually Pretty good. Later on this recovery, it will be bumpy. It won't be synchronized. The buzzword of the moment on Wall Street, I think has to be a divergence who can engineer the most dependable, reliable recovery and as a market participant, What is the optimal way of getting exposure to that story? Yeah, and perhaps divergence between some of the optimism we've seen in markets and the real economy, which does appear to be stalling out. Certainly in the United States, as well as in Europe were hoping to get a little bit more of a sense of what that officials are looking at. One of the main things I'm watching today is a barrage of fed speak their back. We're going to be hearing from a slew of Fed officials, including the feds, Raphael Bostic. Very daily and Tom Barkin. Also what I'm watching today, 10 AM Another read on the US labor market with the U. S. May jolts job openings data and three PM This is key, John. We've been talking about this a lot. President Trump will be participating in a forum on reopening schools until school's re open. We cannot get the economy fully up to speed because working parents cannot get their lives back to normal. A key debate at a time when you want to see kids kept safe, John The debate will continue to have right here on this program this Tuesday morning, with equity futures down by 28 points, enough by 9/10 of 1%. The last 24 hours all about a global equity market rally. And here in the United States. It was all about big tech, the NASDAQ back to all time highs up 16% year today on a big question. How do you tilt away from the United States when it is the home? Of mega cap growth stuff. I want to begin this show by asking that question to James Athey abandoning standard investments James help me understand that it is the home to make a cap tech Apple Amazon Microsoft surging this year and back at all time highs for all three of those stocks. Why would you tell us away from that story towards the rest of the world? Good morning, John. I mean, if you had done so, for whatever reason, then then obviously you would have underperformed significantly because globally equities have You have nowhere near the performance that we've seen from some of these mega cap tech names that you've just described there, and that's not just in the You know, immediate pre and the media post covert period. That is something which has been going on for some time. I mean, thie Eurostoxx index is not far from the same level. It was that in the late nineties, when you compare that to the performance of the US indices. The divergences Stark. So if you are value investor on you look at things like price to earnings or price to sales and you look a tech names and say, I just can't justify owning these names with such multiples. Then obviously you've missed out to this point. It is essentially a leap of faith. There is no possible way that you can do a calculation to justify the valuation. Off those big tech names. You are nearly investing in a narrative in a belief that they are able to turn what are either dominant market positions currently or or Emerging market positions currently in this in the case of a name like Tesla that you believe they can convert into you know, the winner takes all and become a true global monopoly on again, you can't prove that that is merely a leap.

John United States Melbourne Australia Jonathan Farrow Fed Tom Kane James Athey Malbin Tom Barkin Tesla engineer Europe Raphael Bostic President Trump Apple Microsoft
The alpha generating opportunity for the second half of 2020

Bloomberg Surveillance

05:58 min | 2 years ago

The alpha generating opportunity for the second half of 2020

"Of K P W as we enter the second half over this year, I think we have very little clarity, Visibility whatsoever. Government e Year and well this economy and the pandemic situation will look like from New York City this morning. Good morning to world alongside Tom Kay. Together with Lisa, Grab it some Jonathan Farrow, one hour, 12 minutes away from your opening about We roll over just a little bit. A mild move lover, down six points. The S and P 500 off by 2/10 of 1%. That's the equity market is the bond market for your Treasury yields have been lower. The curve has been flattered through much to the morning so far, your 10 year yield comes down to basics points. You're 30 year down almost three and a foreign exchange muted price. Actually, G 10 through much of this morning euro dollar Going absolutely nowhere. Poundsterling just a little bit weak. It's on the pound. Just a little bit lower. Well, interesting in the pound. Maybe Francine Lacqua, driving the pound weaker with her conversation with the chancellor of the exchequer earlier today, right now to have you reset for the second half of 2020 a guy who writes an incredibly interesting short research note. Michael Purvis is great because it six or seven or eight pages instead of the 30 pages a boilerplate that your eyes glaze over on. And in that he always tries to get out front of the trend. He did that to a tea with the Asia currency dynamics about 23 years ago. He is tall back and we're thrilled. Michael could join us this morning. Michael Purvis real simply. Where's the opportunity? Right now? What do you writing about is the truth. Alfa generating opportunity for the second half. You know, it's it's a tough question. Tough. I think for any of us, we were shifting. I would start by answering that question. If we were the first half was very fine area, you know, almost sort of wrist on wrist Call Allah 2010. The second half is going to be a much more nuanced sort of less binary set of analyses. And there's a lot of things that are just to come into the foreground. Just after we clear the Fourth of July holiday, which is all of that right around the corner. They're so I think the framework shift there, you know, in terms of how one position For the second half. I am looking, you know, opportunistically to sell volatility. I did that a couple of weeks ago when we had that big spike after the FOMC. There. You know, I'm looking at, you know, on my long equity portfolio toe have sort of a core ballast of what other people have. Which is you know the big cap tax, which is sort of an all weather type of Equity investment. It's almost a separate after classes to itself. There. I think the areas that are very interesting into the second half is looking at this potential sort of pivot where Europe, the European condition. Maybe moving into a into a more interesting place with stimulus slowly coming together and at the same time writing political risk in the United States. With a whole bunch of uncertainties. But what kind of policies were going to get out of D? C in 2021? There's no like I expect. I expect for the f B X, you know, to be most likely rangebound. I think it's gonna be hard to be a committed bear in the second half, but the same time it's gonna be hard to be That they committed bowl and then I think not too much that answer, But I would also suggest that look, you know it's it's arguably a consensus trade right now, but I've been Very constructive and precious metals for some time, and I continued to be so I think we're going to see a lot of pick up their particularly in the minors and silver. Well, Michael, that's basically a whole book. So let's pick out part of the story gets a Europe Do you think we could see re allowed performance on the continent? Well, I you know, Look, European equities have been the mother of all value traps for some time. We've all been there revolved and you know, sort of excited. You had a glimmer of hope in 2017 that lasts about 6 to 9 months. There. But I do think that there's something that investors have to keep their eye on here. Which is that there is, um you know, perhaps a bit as the catalyst has brought together. The new sense of European cohesion, and you're saying that with this with this very large 750 billion grow stimulus plan France, Germany over Anchoring there, and it seems like there's slowly getting old 26 countries on on board with it, but it's very important because it underscores declining. If it happens, it'll level harmonized. Interest rates across the eurozone. Um you know the spread of TB. The bones will come down and arguably, O'Neil should come higher as well. But at the same time, the political risk premium that's always exist in the euro should come down. I think I look, there's a lot Can happen between now and that you know whenever that might become a reality, but it represents a very, very important chefs in terms of training it, you know, it may be The long euro trait is the easier crazy and say my along the equities right now or or or the widow maker of sorting fun, but I think it's very, very important because over the long term mechanic tracked Very substantial capital flows that have been very US focus. Back into the eurozone, and that has implications that will ripple across. I think the whole the whole investment landscape. Again with the caveat gifted when it comes to happen, But there is a moment of building there that We had not seen before. Michael purpose

Michael Purvis United States Europe Tom Kay New York City Jonathan Farrow Treasury Eurozone Lisa Francine Lacqua Fomc Poundsterling Chancellor Asia France Germany
Apple launch: Bigger! Faster! Pricier! Innovative?

The Savage Nation with Michael Savage

02:35 min | 4 years ago

Apple launch: Bigger! Faster! Pricier! Innovative?

"Tomorrow. Apple's expected to introduce several new iphones ipads, apple watches as the tech giant tries to become the first US company to reach a two trillion. Dollar market capitalization for a preview of what to expect Bloomberg's Tom Keene and Jonathan Farrow spoke with BT, I g analyst Walter Pijesak. Walter diode cell where are you right now on apple stock has been obviously been performing well as it typically does ahead of a an iphone launch. I guess warn people that the day of the launch itself, which I guess is expect tomorrow the announcement stock doesn't typically fair that well, but rather than being focused on the near term just looking at the long-term, or at least an intermediate term prospects of earnings rose said the company, that's the reason about this. Have you done a sum of the parts analysis of you ever have you actually tried to figure out what services slash itunes is? Is actually worth or the core franchise is worth. Or the peripheral is worth have you done a sum of the parts? We haven't done that yet, Tom. But, but it's it's interesting because it's so early stage if you look at the number of let's say active, I phone users that are out there. Creative strategies estimates that about eight hundred million eight hundred fifty million there's only three hundred million people today that are paying a regular subscription. So we're still early days in terms of number of customers paying regular service fees, and then no services themselves per customer, which in in in the service industry that's called. Our polls can probably go up on on new opportunities.

Apple Jerome Lambert Bloomberg Tom Keene CEO Cartier Van Cleef Andrew O'day Johann Rupert Reese Mont Chief Executive Officer Walter Pijesak United States BT Jonathan Farrow Chairman Analyst Two Decades
John Tucker, US and Bloomberg discussed on Bloomberg Surveillance

Bloomberg Surveillance

00:10 sec | 4 years ago

John Tucker, US and Bloomberg discussed on Bloomberg Surveillance

"Lisa Abramowicz. This morning Tom Kaine on vacation, I'm Jonathan Farrow two as away from the opening bell. Let's get you updated on the news you need to know this hour in sixty minutes from now, we get the aug jumps report,

John Tucker United States Bloomberg Serena Williams Lisa Abramowicz Twitter Burt Reynolds Jonathan Farrow Tom Kaine President Trump New York Times Washington Heidi Heitkamp Deutsche Bank Syria Osaka Alex Jones Brett Canada
Tencent, the Chinese Internet Giant, Stumbles

Bloomberg Best

00:27 sec | 4 years ago

Tencent, the Chinese Internet Giant, Stumbles

"New York the US equity market was down in the. Last session but we finished well off. The worst levels of the day a, couple of forces were at. Work it began overnight when the Chinese Internet, giant tencent. Reported disappointing results ADR's and, ten cent were down six point. Seven percent now at the same time US video game stocks. Were weaker after, China decided to. Pause on the approval of, game licenses Electronic Arts fell three percent activision blizzard was down. Two point eight

Bloomberg Turkey United States Senior Fellow Stephen Cook Twitter President Trump New York Ceo Elon Musk June Grosso Tencent Ken Langone York FOX Cisco SEC George W Bush Jonathan Farrow Electronic Arts
US, Bloomberg and Taiwan discussed on Bloomberg Best

Bloomberg Best

04:40 min | 4 years ago

US, Bloomberg and Taiwan discussed on Bloomberg Best

"All this and more coming up in, the next hour. Of Bloomberg best I'm Doug krizner at Bloomberg world headquarters in New York let's check this hour's top. Business stories and the markets US airlines are planning to. Comply with. A demand from the Chinese government it wants carriers to identify Taiwan to reflect China's claim on the island territory we are told you. As carriers affected by the mandate include American delta United continental, and Hawaiian holdings and they will begin. We are told to change their Taiwan. Reference, over the next day or two Facebook is trying to open a center in China to support local startups even though the company's apps and websites are still blocked in China you might remember earlier this month Facebook set. Up a Chinese subsidiary Facebook technology it registered capital of thirty million. Dollars according to a filing after the bell here in the states AT and t., reported disappointing results in its first earnings reports since closing on the Time Warner deal there was weakness in eight AT, and t. entertainment group that includes direct TV this as a result of cord cutting and consumers moving. To internet video. The revenue number missed estimates AT and t. shares were. Down one percent in late US trading. Called palms deal to a by an XP semiconductor expires on Wednesday the agreement does then. The companies are waiting approval from regulators in China we are told a delegation. Of Qualcomm executives are in last minute discussions with Chinese, officials we check, markets every fifteen minutes here, on Bloomberg we're seeing. A little bit of pullback in the end vis-a-vis the dollar here at one. Eleven twenty five the Nikkei two twenty five is higher by one half. Of one percent hang sang eight tenths of one percent the Shanghai. Composite is a head less than, one tenth of one percent the, kospi is. Down one tenth of one percent and the ASX two hundred weaker by two tenths of one percent global news twenty four hours a day on air and a. Tick tock on Twitter powered by more. Than twenty seven hundred journal List and analyst this is Bloomberg a combination of protectionist economic policies a new Chinese initiatives are reshaping, the economic world for more on this regime Bloomberg's Tom Keene and Jonathan. Farrow spoke with Abby Joseph Cohen and advisory director and senior investment strategist at Goldman Sachs. I guess we've gotta talk about vanilla equity investment. How do you respond when you see the gloom articles they seem to peak Friday about seven, PM but. You've spent decades in cycles of doom and gloom are the doom and. Gloom articles, on a given Friday now. Different than they were other eras I think that we're seeing increased concern. Tom and it's appropriate in terms of where the United States in the world are heading in terms of Ideo political. Alliances and, also in terms of the trade picture we have taken for granted since the nineteen fifties at the United States would Dominate in. So many different areas we. Were by far the. Strongest economy the other, economies of Europe in Japan had been devastated by. The second World War and now we have real competition on the economic front. And, that comes from China and quite frankly they are playing a long game everybody focuses on how they're doing this, quarter this year they are making long-term investments not. Just in terms of? Their own economy but in terms, of their long-term trade and political relationships their, version of the Asian Development Bank in which they're providing significant funding for infrastructure in Asia and throughout the world is the equivalent of the Marshall plan. Which gave the United States an enormous advantage, in terms of global trade focused on Europe I in the fifties and sixties and so I think there are real. Concerns when I take a look at the, equity market per se I always start with valuation the valuation is okay if If inflation and interest rates do what we think, and most importantly earnings continue to pop as they seem to be doing and real GDP seemed so strong this quarter obviously equity investors are going to. Feel good however as I look. Out into two thousand nineteen I think we're going to be seeing slower growth for example SNP earnings this. Year up twenty percent next. Year six or seven. Percent John this is single digit. Abby this is and this is a, slowdown as well in GDP and what I worry about is that if, valuation is currently fair there's not much..

United States Bloomberg Taiwan Facebook Bloomberg World AT Abby Joseph Cohen Europe Tom Keene Chinese Government China New York Qualcomm ASX Doug Krizner Shanghai Twitter Goldman Sachs
Bloomberg, United States and Abby Joseph Cohen discussed on Bloomberg Best

Bloomberg Best

04:15 min | 4 years ago

Bloomberg, United States and Abby Joseph Cohen discussed on Bloomberg Best

"Don't do cut. Menu money on Vases and I'm quite confident that the Class PSA group CEO. Carlos to Varas weighs in on trade I think it's better that. We keep open trade in the world I think it will create more wealth for humanity and it will create more win situation than lose lose situations all this and more coming up in the next hour of Bloomberg best First let's check the markets and some today's. Top business stories I'm Charlie Pellett equity benchmarks finished. The day mostly higher led by technology and healthcare companies while China's, efforts to support its economy spurred interest in high-risk assets across. The Asia s. and p. five hundred index up for a second straight day Jim Karen is portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley investment management I think the stronger. Dollar is a real key if if the dollar does start to weaken that as a shore sign of risk on risk, off the dollar is actually strengthening so I think that's the. Backdrop and I know there is. A. Lot of discussion around trade and some of the concerns around have. Pushed. The dollar higher so I I would still, have to argue that the biggest risk in the market. Are still some of these trade concerns and that is ultimately going. To be stronger for the dollar so it's a real balancing act Abby Joseph Cohen is senior investment strategist at Goldman Sachs on Bloomberg television today she urged caution for fixed income investors I think it will be increasingly difficult. For fixed income investors to do well, now we're looking at global bond markets where government bond yields are negative for more than half of the developed. Economies, that's not sustainable in the United States we've already. Seen a rise in the ten year treasury yield. Two three percent cat go higher we think it will three point, six percent by the end of next year so we would. Be cautious in fixed income Lululemon athletic has named Calvin McDonald to lead the yoga wear maker as it looks to rehabilitate its internal culture and expand its. International presence, he recently served as the top executive of makeup chain Sephora stocks mostly higher SNP up thirteen of five tenths, of one percent the Dow up one hundred ninety seven up. Eight tenths of one percent NASDAQ. Little. Changed lower by a point I'm Charlie Pellett that's a Bloomberg business. Flash. Bloomberg best with June Grasso and Ed Baxter continues a combination of protectionist economic policies a new Chinese initiatives are reshaping the economic world for more on this regime Bloomberg's Tom Keene and. Jonathan Farrow spoke with Abby Joseph Cohen and advisory director and senior, investment strategist at Goldman Sachs. I guess we gotta talk about vanilla equity investment how do you respond when. You see the gloom articles they seem to. Peak Friday about seven PM but you spent decades in cycles of doom and gloom are the doom and gloom articles on a given Friday. Now different than they were other eras I think that. We're seeing increased concern Tom and it's appropriate in terms of where the. United States in the world are heading in terms of geopolitical alliances and. Also in terms of the trade picture. We have taken. For granted since the nineteen fifties at the United States would Dom Nate in so many different. Areas we were by far the strongest economy. The other economies of Europe and Japan had been, devastated by the second World War and now we have real competition on the. Economic, front and that comes from China and quite frankly they are playing a long game everybody focuses on how they're, doing this quarter this year they are making long-term. Investments not just in? Terms of their own economy but? In terms of their long-term trade and political, relationships their version of the Asian Development Bank in which they're providing significant funding infrastructure in Asia and throughout the world is the equivalent of the Marshall. Plan which gave the United States an enormous, advantage in terms of global trade focused on Europe I in the fifties and sixties and so I think there..

Bloomberg United States Abby Joseph Cohen Charlie Pellett Goldman Sachs Tom Keene Varas Europe Group Ceo Carlos Lululemon Calvin Mcdonald China Portfolio Manager Morgan Stanley Asian Development Bank Asia Jonathan Farrow
Walgreens shares pull back after initial post-earnings gains

Bloomberg Daybreak

04:57 min | 4 years ago

Walgreens shares pull back after initial post-earnings gains

"Stand today and where they may be heading next good morning six twenty on wall street i'm john tucker walgreens reporting third quarter earnings before the open of regular trading in new york today and to give us more of what we expect from walgreen jonathan palmer's healthcare bi senior industry every analysts joining us from bloomberg intelligence this morning first of all i i think we have to explain the competitive landscape that's taking place in the pharmaceutical space right now with walgreens what is it just how competitive is it it's a very interesting time for the pharmacy players there that cvs and purchase of patna potentially going through a competitor on the insurance side what are the big tvm's express scripts which really leaves walgreens as the last really stand alone pharmacy chain big pharmacy chain in the united states those competitors are all merging and they're standing at some really smart person described their strategy right now is kind of whole home is it say that they held an analyst they last month in new york where where they usually give an overview of their longterm plan and really they're sticking to their knitting they're not really doing anything dramatic like we've seen their competitors do walgreens has been big on on dealing partnerships with other companies they announced the small partnership with the insurer humanity to do stuff in their stories and kansas city but we're not really seeing the dramatic lou that the competitors have made the kind of embrace maybe what might be a new environment and retail there acquiring rite aid stores though right and the distribution centers that's correct that you know that about two or three years ago to fifteen tried to acquire all of rite aid the ftc push back on that deal and they eventually wound up buying about half of rite eight two thousand stores i did mentioned it before but another interesting transaction that's happening is rate is merging with the grocer albertson's form a bigger retail conglomerate both grocery stores and pharmacy so another example of of competitors embracing business models while walgreens you know just like i said six that their knitting so the impact on earnings what are you going to be looking for in the report this morning the thing investors are gonna be looking for today is really the amount of script growth that's going through their stores last year they acquired or not fired they announced a couple of deals where where a number of came on board into the walgreen model they they announced deal with a company called prime air to bring a lot of their members into the walgreens stores now anniversary and and we have the rite aid stores that they acquired last year coming online so so really people are going to look to say where where scripts going conscripts growth is what drives the pharmacy all their entering the dow jones industrial average as one of the components of the doubt what impact does it have at the end of the day might be that it doesn't really have a big impact outside of the prestige factor of being a dow jones company i the tweets of walgreens has been interesting one you know we've seen in retail a lot of pressure from from amazon you know across all the different facets whether it's grocer big box stores it's interesting to be that jones committee decided to include walgreens who as i said was is really sticking to this retail centric model when some of its competitors like cvs are bracing these new models of retail and insurance combined together which in my mind probably would have been a more appropriate choice of what the new economy really looks like they entered earlier this week not exactly an industrial company where do you expect sales real quick about ten seconds yeah i think i think the sales on the pharmacy side will be up modestly in the low single digits the other pieces of store data piece that a lot of investors look at what's happening not in the scripts but i'm not retail side that the key metric going forward as well jonathan thanks very much walgreens probably around seven o'clock this morning wall street time we'll get results jonathan palmer of bloomberg intelligence of walgreens earnings you're listening to bloomberg daybreak bloomberg surveillance this time key jonathan farrow out of the dow but the ceo has a new plan g nickname in a william blair today at seven am eastern on bloomberg radio bloomberg the world is listening this is a bloomberg market minute.

John Tucker Walgreens Ten Seconds Three Years
Elon Musk Thinks Wall Street Traders And Fossil Fuel Companies Are Stealing Tesla's Data

Bloomberg Best

04:30 min | 4 years ago

Elon Musk Thinks Wall Street Traders And Fossil Fuel Companies Are Stealing Tesla's Data

"To the hit movie incredible two incredible gay pixar its biggest opening weekend ever with one hundred eighty million dollars in ticket sales but in an unusual move isn't is issued a warning to movie goers who have epilepsy scene with the villain screen slavery features bright flashing lights the disney says could trigger seizures in people with epilepsy migraines or chronic illness the epilepsy foundation even issued a statement all theaters the post warning signs for people wanting to see the movie i'm tj cudicini chef marcus samuelsson has bought a former pool hall and over town a historic black neighborhood of miami with plans to open a restaurant a miami redevelopment board has already point tens of millions of dollars into over town but samuelson is the first celebrity to make a commitment there he bought the building for one and a half million dollars while turning down opportunities in south beach an cates this is bloomberg best bloomberg best is about the insight and the context get from our marquess it's a great way to catch up on some of the stories you might have missed on the bloomberg stories you're not going to find in any other news organization bloomberg best bloomberg's best stories of the day our d by twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts in more than one hundred twenty countries around the world i'm june grasso and i'm ed baxter on this edition of bloomberg best for monday june eighteen mary lovely from the peterson institute discusses us trade policy in china when we placed tariffs on these types of goods were indirectly trying to get at the chinese where i off hitting mainly our allies operations in china was former commerce secretary carlos gutierrez saw the republican party we look more like game right wing european party populace not too concerned about business antiimmigrant all this and more coming up in the next our bloomberg best i'm doug krizner at bloomberg world headquarters in new york let's check this hour's top business stories and the markets president trump seems to be threatening to escalate the trade fight with china into a fullblown trade war the president has directed the us trade rep to identify two hundred billion dollars worth of chinese goods for additional tariffs at a rate of ten percent for its part china said it will take strong counter measures if the us issues in new list the aussie dollar fell to a one year low on that news the yen has strengthened by more than six tenths of one percent and equity markets in china and hong kong are sharply lower the hang sang is down two percent the shanghai composite is weaker by one point six percent the us senate has passed a defense authorization bill that would restore penalties on china telecommunications giant z t e that sets up a political clash with the white house since it overturns a reprieve on penalties from the us commerce department a disgruntled employee tesla broke into the company's manufacturing operating system and sent highly sensitive data to an unknown third party according to an email sent to staff from ceo elon musk the worker who had been denied a promotion did quite extensive and damaging sabotage crude oil right now trading weaker after moving higher in the new york session there is a key opec meeting this week and producers is said to be discussing a smaller than expected boost to production wti in the electronic session sixty five sixty we check markets every fifteen minutes here on bloomberg right now in tokyo the nikkei two twentyfive is down eight tenths of one percent in seoul the kospi weaker by nine tenths of one percent although in sydney the sex two hundred is ahead three tenths of one percent the us ten year treasury in the tokyo session with a yield of two point eight percent global news twenty four hours a day on air and a tick tock on twitter powered by more than twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts in more than one hundred twenty countries this is bloomberg after president trump imposed new sanctions on china last week the us and china are heading for a potential trade war from ron trade relations between the two countries bloomberg's tom keene and jonathan farrow spoke with mary lovely a senior fellow at the peterson institute murray what's number one thing we get wrong in our tariff allowances or discussion two thousand eighteen vintage i think the biggest misconception is the extent to which the trade between the.

Pixar One Percent One Hundred Eighty Million Dol Two Hundred Billion Dollars Twenty Four Hours Fifteen Minutes Million Dollars Eight Percent Six Percent Ten Percent Two Percent One Year Ten Year
Kevin Durant of Golden State Warriors wishes he had late transition play back after Game 4 loss

Surveillance

01:53 min | 4 years ago

Kevin Durant of Golden State Warriors wishes he had late transition play back after Game 4 loss

"The sports the bloomberg nbc sports report which stashower john we finally got a close game in the nba conference finals golden state led the rockets twelve nothing then trail by ten before halftime warriors rallied reclaimed a twelve point lead within used it a big fourth quarter held the warriors only twelve points in the rockets one ninety five ninety two james harden thirty points chris paul with twenty seven steph curry lead golden state with twenty eight points kevin durant twentyseven the warriors first home playoff loss dropping game seven of the two thousand sixteen finals they tied the record with sixteen wins in a row the series is tied at two there's a new mac the longtime bluejays slugger jose bautista signed and then played so it was a wild day one of my while listen based sitting at home on the couch two o'clock and six thirty hours doubled and scored his first mets at that but it was the mets only wrong they lost the marlins five to one in their four game winning streak rare loss for the yankees dirksen pro three one home in the first half domingo's vermont texas one six four zero three more yankee owner's the laws that seventeen homers in the last four games two years after the jets drafted quarterback christian hackenberg in the second round they treated him to oakland for a seventh round taking never took a snap as a jet with the bloomberg nbc sports update i'm jon stashower john john stashower thank you even the sports news here's the price action this wednesday futures negative sixteen on the sp down one eighty one on the dow risk aversion driving a bit into treasuries iota by four or five basis points through the morning three point zero one percent is your yield on a ten year and in the fx market against the bulk of g ten dollar strength eurodollar dance six tenths of one percent to one seventeen flat from new york for audience worldwide you're listening to bloomberg surveillance you are listening to linda radio alongside myself jonathan farrow this morning and through the next couple of is a lisa abramowicz.

Jonathan Farrow Linda DOW Jon Stashower Oakland Texas Steph Curry Chris Paul NBA NBC Bloomberg Lisa Abramowicz Kevin Durant New York John John Stashower Christian Hackenberg Jets Vermont Domingo Yankees
Barbara Bush, President and Director discussed on Surveillance

Surveillance

02:07 min | 4 years ago

Barbara Bush, President and Director discussed on Surveillance

"For our listeners worldwide good morning good morning alongside tom kaine in washington dc i'm jonathan farrow in new york and we are to as away from the opening bell let's get you updated on the news you need to know this hour volkan stanley up almost two percent firstquarter earnings per share trading revenue and trading all topping analysts estimate some really solid figures come again morgan stanley elsewhere ibm shares are down more than five percent after the company reported narrow profit margins and no revenue growth tesla will begin round the clock production of its model three ceo elon musk told employees in an email the electric carmaker will try to build six thousand of these saddam's a week by the end of june another production target coming to you from elon musk and theresa may's brexit strategy facing a renewed threat today the uk prime minister's flagship bill returning to the house of lords and a proposal to keep the uk in a customs union with the eu after leaving the block may pass quite easily there's some stories we've got our eye on let's get you some headlines as well from around the world and psychomotor to michael barr good morning michael good morning jonathan good morning tom to officials say that c i a director mike pompeo recently met secretly with north korean leader kim jong un and now president trump has confirmed it with a tweet this morning trump had said us and north korea were holding direct talks at extremely high levels in preparation for possible summit between trump and kim presidents first ladies and many others in new barbara bush are praising her devotion to the nation her family and literacy president donald trump said among mrs bush's greatest achievements was recognizing the importance of literacy as a fundamental family value that requires nurturing and protection former president barack obama said mrs bush lived her life as a testament to the fact that public service is an important and noble calling mrs bush died yesterday at age ninety two global news twenty four hours a day on air and at tick tock on twitter powered by more than twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts in more than one hundred twenty countries i'm michael barr this is bloomberg jonathan thank you very much that's.

Barbara Bush President Trump Director Theresa CEO IBM Washington Michael Barr Twitter Mrs Bush Barack Obama Donald Trump Tom Kaine North Korea Kim Jong Un Mike Pompeo EU UK