38 Burst results for "Jonathan Farrow"
Bloomberg Radio New York - Recording Feed
Monitor Show 07:00 09-26-2023 07:00
"With Bloomberg, you get the story behind the story, the story behind the global birth rate, behind your EV battery's environmental impact, behind sand, yeah, sand, you get context. And context changes everything. Go to Bloomberg .com to get context. Bloomberg Business Act. This is Bloomberg Radio. U .S. growth both accelerating and surprising to the upside. That's something that's going to change. The U .S. economy in the near term will probably be slowing down. When I look at the bond market, it's pricing in a slowdown. When I look at the equity market, it's not. What people have been doing all year, which has confused me, is sold bonds, but said that they like them. Right now, we're still in the annoyance phase of inflation. That's why we think it will persist. This is Bloomberg Surveillance with Tom Kean, Jonathan Farrow, and Lisa Abramowitz. Good morning, everyone. Bloomberg Surveillance, Jonathan Farrow, Lisa Abramowitz, and Tom Kean thrilled you with us on radio, on television. Right there is what we're about. Katie Kaminsky and Eric Davis yesterday each separately, equities and bonds, looking for price down, yield up. Bramo loved Monday, not so much in love with Tuesday. But Lisa, I mean, the toxic stew or brew of the last 48 hours is something. Yesterday was a tipping point moment where we saw yields climb to levels that people didn't think possible. And they basically were all saying that this, we had seen the peak about six months ago, and here we were reaching new post -2007 peaks in the 10 -year yield. And today we're seeing a little bit of a bounce back, but not with conviction. And that raises a question, can we live with these rates? Why are risk assets holding in as much as they are? Yes, you're seeing a bit of softness today. And are we entering a new regime that looks unfamiliar to anything that we have seen over the past 20 years? And I would stagger the data dependency. Yesterday, the 30...
Bloomberg Daybreak Europe
Fresh update on "jonathan farrow" discussed on Bloomberg Daybreak Europe
"Responsiveness you need? Given the changing marketplace, you need established advisors who help find opportunities in the current business and tax environment. Anshin's accountants and advisors provide the resources and guidance that you and your business need to meet today's face challenges. Visit Anshin .com to contact us. The Global Leader in Business and Financial News is now live on YouTube. Watch Bloomberg Radio all day. This is a market that's much more bullish. Market news, conversation and insight from Bloomberg's signature radio shows. Surveillance, markets, sound on and business week. We've got a rally in stocks. More breaking news today from Supreme the Court. Bloomberg Radio. Watch us every business day live on YouTube. Search Bloomberg Global News. Bloomberg. Context changes everything. The possibility of lung cancer can be pretty scary, especially if you're one of approximately 8 million current or former smokers at high risk. That's why SavedByTheSkin .org wants you to know that now there's a breakthrough low dose CT scan that can detect lung cancer early and it only takes 60 seconds. You stop smoking, now start screening. For an easy quiz to see if you're eligible, visit SavedByTheScan .org. It could save your life. SavedByTheScan .org is brought to you by the American Lung Force Initiative and the Ad Council. The business news Wall Street depends on. Under surveillance this and the insight that only Bloomberg can provide. The real news this morning is the 30 German year yield. Bloomberg surveillance with Tom Kean, Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. to You have look at the data as it is. It shows strength and it shows higher inflation. Listen to Bloomberg surveillance live weekday mornings at 7 Eastern or on demand on Apple, Spotify and wherever you get your podcasts. Bloomberg. exchanges everything. At Oppenheimer we focus the power of our thinking on you. Getting Creating customized plans to help achieve your goals. The power of Oppenheimer thinking is boundless and original. listening more closely and investing with the confidence of over a century of experience. Creating new opportunities that rely on innovation, preserving capital and come from deep insights. Put the power of Oppenheimer thinking into your investing. Call an Oppenheimer professional. Tuesday, a Bloomberg exclusive join
Bloomberg Radio New York - Recording Feed
Monitor Show 07:00 09-25-2023 07:00
"Today, ophthalmology residents use Fundamental VR and Orbis International's virtual training tool to practice surgeries. Dr. Renee Badrow says, with Fundamental VR, I can virtually practice cataract surgeries over and over in the metaverse. More training hours in the metaverse means increased access to quality care for patients in need. These are the ways surgeons are using the metaverse today. Learn more at meta .com slash metaverse impact. The rate sets the problem. It's the adjustment. What's going on in market is quite different to what's going on in the real economy. The economic soft landing narrative is definitely being challenged. This is Bloomberg Surveillance with Tom Kean, Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. Good morning, everyone. Bloomberg Surveillance on radio and television. Jonathan Farrow, Lisa Bramowitz and Tom Kean. John Farrow on assignment after a two to two draw at Arsenal Tottenham. I watched the highlights. I did too, actually. I was trying to make sure I kept up. Very good. Farrow recovering from that. We hope to see him maybe tomorrow because the Gulf Stream's over here. So you know, I think maybe Wednesday. Okay, hold on. Let's just make this real clear right here. I do not take a Gulf Stream or a private plane because people have actually stopped me and said, why are you not on a private plane? I know, they stopped me too. I have never taken a private plane before in my life, but carry on. I was stopped and he threw about Lisa on the Gulf Stream and said, well, the Bombardier we're looking at, but we just don't think we can pull that off. Future's a negative one Dow. Future's negative 14. You're waking up on a Monday to a changed world. Bramo nails it with a quinfecta idea of five or things in a swirl. Let's go to something we haven't talked about yet with a real yield up near new highs, new generational highs, 2 .11 percent. China, the developers, that story unravels to the point, I think I can say there's no bid in the market because there's no market.
Bloomberg Daybreak Europe
Fresh update on "jonathan farrow" discussed on Bloomberg Daybreak Europe
"Time as in spaghetti sandwiches for dinner they're my fave dad you're the GOAT you don't have to speak team to be a perfect parent thousands of teens in foster care will love you just the same visit adopt us kids org brought to you by the US Department of Health and Human Services adopt us kids and the Ad Council the business news Wall Street depends on under surveillance this morning China's sliding into deflation and the insight only that Bloomberg can provide the real news this morning is the German 30 -year yield Bloomberg surveillance with Tom Keene, Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz you have to look at the data as it is it shows strength and it shows higher inflation listen to Bloomberg surveillance live weekday mornings at 7
Bloomberg Radio New York - Recording Feed
Monitor Show 07:00 09-22-2023 07:00
"With Bloomberg, you get the story behind the story, the story behind the global birth rate, behind your EV batteries' environmental impact, behind sand, yeah, sand, you get context, and context changes everything. Go to Bloomberg .com to get context. This is Bloomberg Radio. We still think rates are somewhat too high over the long run. As long as the politics lets the U .S. be exceptional, you can have higher yields and a stronger dollar. Turning to the U .S., we are a lot weaker than consensus with U .S. growth. Inflation expectations are fairly well behaved for consumers. What we're seeing is the lagged impact of fairly aggressive monetary tightening really starting to bite. This is Bloomberg Surveillance with Tom Keane, Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. This is Bloomberg Surveillance live from the city of London for our audience worldwide. Good morning. Good morning. Alongside Tom Keane and Lisa Abramowitz, I'm Jonathan Farrow, your equity market positive here by 0 .2%. It's been a rough, dicey couple of days in this market. Let's put it all together. Biggest one -day loss on the S &P 500 in about six months, yields we haven't seen for more than a decade, cycle highs on a ten -year, on a two -year. This morning in today's session in Asian trading, we went through $4 .50 briefly on a ten -year. We come back about a basis point, $4 .48. TK, putting it all together, what a ride it's been over the last few trading days. I'm going to go away from the equity market. I really take issue with the worry and the doom and gloom on equities. It's barely a pullback here with a VIX at 17 .12, I believe, as a level. You think we had a 20, a 22, a 25 VIX. We got nothing. It's been resilient equity markets with the bounce back today. In the other areas, you're right, John, in foreign exchange, I can tell you it's an interesting study. It's not one or two pairs. It's like 10 or 12 pairs you can study. Sara Velles with us from Deutsche Bank.
BTV Simulcast
Fresh "Jonathan Farrow" from BTV Simulcast
"Do you build a strategy with that eventuality in mind experts information news the push sets up a potential fight what how do we know about it will go public Bloomberg Radio the Bloomberg Business App and Bloomberg radio .com Bloomberg the world is listening the only way to start the morning is with The jobs recovery was sluggish. A lot of people agree on that. Bloomberg surveillance with Tom Kean, Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. Finally we got some Abramowitz gloom to get in there. The ultimate south signal might And Lisa can pitch your lights. Bloomberg surveillance. Must listen. Must watch. Lisa your data point go. Tom you're great never change. weekday mornings at 7 Eastern on Bloomberg Radio and Bloomberg Television. There are a lot of ways to look at the world right now. Interesting that you've got an overweight on Hong Kong and the more of them you can access the better. What has to be his perspective?
Bloomberg Radio New York - Recording Feed
Monitor Show 07:00 09-21-2023 07:00
"With Bloomberg, you get the story behind the story, the story behind the global birth rate, behind your EV battery's environmental impact, behind sand, yeah, sand, you get context, and context changes everything. Go to Bloomberg .com to get context. This is Bloomberg Radio. We intend to hold policy at a restrictive level until we're confident that inflation is moving down sustainably toward our objective. We're running strong growth, we're running inflation that's above target, so it makes sense to guide towards higher for longer. There is a concern on the other side of this that they're going to need a higher neutral rate. The economy has changed since the shutdown restart, and the Federal Reserve is still struggling to come to grips with that. The Fed delivered exactly what they wanted to, provide a hawkish sap that allows them to speak more dubishly. This is Bloomberg Surveillance with Tom Kean, Jonathan Farrow, and Lisa Abramowitz. Well, there's a split decision, live from London, for our audience worldwide. Good morning, good morning. This is Bloomberg Surveillance on TV and radio. Alongside Tom Kean and Lisa Abramowitz, I'm Jonathan Farrow, and I'm not talking about the Federal Reserve. Rates unchanged at the Bank of England, Tom. The votes split, nine members of the MPC, 5 -4, in favor of maintaining interest rates exactly where they are at 5 -25. This is a surprise. It'll be interesting to see the defense makeup. You see a 5 -4 in terms of maintaining. That's the kind of tension, John, may be obscured in Washington. It's very visible feet away from our offices. That's the decision. Here's the signal they want to send this morning, Lisa. Further tightening required if inflation persists. It feels like this week's CPI print, a bit of a game changer for this BOE. I want to hear, though, from you.
Bloomberg Radio New York - Recording Feed
Monitor Show 07:00 09-19-2023 07:00
"With Bloomberg, you get the story behind the story, the story behind the global birth rate, behind your EV battery's environmental impact, behind sand, yeah, sand, you get context. And context changes everything. Go to Bloomberg .com to get context. The Business Act, this is Bloomberg Radio. Looking forward, the jury's still out on inflation, but that recession risk remains significant. It might take longer for inflation to get back to target. It's true there is a resilience of inflation which is more tangible in Europe than it is in the U .S. Consumers in particular, they aren't behaving like there is a recession in any form coming around the corner. There's a risk here about a wage price spiral that isn't going away anytime soon. This is Bloomberg Surveillance with Tom Kean, Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. A two -day meeting at the FOMC begins right now or whenever Chairman Powell gets out of bed in Washington. From London, from our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning. This is Bloomberg Surveillance on TV and radio alongside Tom Kean and Lisa Abramowitz, I'm Jonathan Farrow. A sneak peek at the price action, equities right now positive by 0 .1 % on the S &P 500. Main event of the week, Tom, there's three of them to be fair. The Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the BOJ, the big one for most is the Federal Reserve, Tom. Tomorrow afternoon. It's going to be interesting to see. The way I look at it is with Greenspan, was he having a ham salad sandwich or a peanut butter and jelly sandwich? It was a king. I mean, did they watch what the governor of the Bank of England does when he stops by Greer's? Do they follow the suitcase and see what's going on? Communication has changed. I don't know what to make about it other than there's no other story. $95 barrel oil and to talk to our guests this morning, including the encyclopedia known as Will Kennedy. We're here. We're here. We're going higher. Ninety five on Brent. Lisa, $92 .51 on WTI. We've got questions.
Bloomberg Radio New York - Recording Feed
Monitor Show 07:00 09-18-2023 07:00
"With Bloomberg, you get the story behind the story, the story behind the global birth rate, behind your EV battery's environmental impact, behind sand, yeah, sand, you get context, and context changes everything. Go to Bloomberg .com to get context. We've yet to see the full effects of the previous tightening come through into the real economy. We have structural imbalances here in the U .S. that no one wants to deal with in Washington. The bigger concern would be that things get unruly in China. I think the Fed is going to be paying very close attention to the path of energy prices ahead. The Fed will do what we all expect it to do, which is to pause and basically indicate they're data dependent. This is Bloomberg Surveillance with Tom Kean, Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. Live from London, on the edge of saying good afternoon, good afternoon for our audience worldwide. Good morning, good morning. This is Bloomberg Surveillance on TV and radio alongside Tom Kean and Lisa Abramowitz. I'm Jonathan Farrow, your equity market on the S &P 500. Just a touch positive on the S &P. Got into a massive week for central bank decisions. Wednesday, the Federal Reserve. Thursday, the Bank of England. On Friday, TK, the BOJ. Just around the corner. Translated with $94 oil, up goes the gallon of gas. I know they don't pay attention to that. Somehow I think they will on Wednesday. And I would suggest the Governor of the Bank of England, you ready for this? $7 .24 for a gallon of petrol in the United Kingdom. That's real money. That's real money. I mean, you know, we don't look at that. The cars are smaller. Lots of electric vehicles here, way more than I would perceive in the United States. But I'm sorry, inflation's there. And as you said earlier, John, in our leisurely English breakfast, full English breakfast this morning, it's just real simple. I mean, all in, inflation's the story, higher yields. Look, this hurts, even with 7 to 8%.
Bloomberg Radio New York - Recording Feed
Monitor Show 07:00 09-14-2023 07:00
"The U .S. Border Patrol has exciting and rewarding career opportunities with the nation's largest law enforcement organization. Earn great pay with outstanding federal benefits and up to $20 ,000 in recruitment incentives. Learn more online at cbp .gov slash careers slash USBP. Bloomberg Business Act. This is Bloomberg Radio. The consumer is stretched here, right? We have to pay attention to that. Whichever way you look at it, inflation is too high. The Fed has to, we think, rates can still move higher and I think that's a really important thing for us to remember. The market has not fully bought into this disinflationary trend idea. I think we're actually going to go into a mild, short recession going into next year. This is Bloomberg Surveillance with Tom Kean, Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. Live from New York City this morning. Good morning, for our audience worldwide. This is Bloomberg Surveillance on TV and radio. Alongside Tom Kean and Lisa Abramowitz, I'm Jonathan Farrow. Your equity market is positive, near session highs up by 0 .4%. Later on this morning, U .S. retail sales and jobless claims, before we get there, an ECB rate decision. Later on tonight, Tom, we're expecting a news conference from UAW, the big union taking on Detroit's big three, because two hours after that, 10 p .m., news conference, potentially, Tom, midnight is that deadline to strike a deal with Detroit's big three. I just went to our engineers in our control room, the team that we've got with our interns and, you know, they use chat, GTP, GPT and all that AI stuff. I want three countdown clocks today. We need three. What are your three events? 8 .30, 10 p .m., like ECB economics, 10 p .m., and then 12 midnight. We'll see if Cinderella comes out and gives us a strike. Pick a story.
Bloomberg Radio New York - Recording Feed
Monitor Show 07:00 09-13-2023 07:00
"With Bloomberg, you get the story behind the story, the story behind the global birth rate, behind your EV battery's environmental impact, behind sand, yeah, sand, you get context, and context changes everything. Go to Bloomberg .com to get context. Use Bloomberg Radio. Us along with many in the street, we're looking for a slowdown and looking for a recession this year. It just hasn't manifested. It's still a very strong labor market. The U .S. economy is far from robust. It's still in positive territory, absolutely, but the momentum seems to be shifting to the downside. I think the consumer is incredibly stretched right now. I think the reaction function of investors is to get out quick if the data starts to deteriorate. This is Bloomberg Surveillance with Tom Kean, Jonathan Farrow, and Lisa Abramowitz. The most important data point of the month coming right up. Live from New York City this morning. Good morning, good morning from our audience worldwide. This is Bloomberg Surveillance on TV and radio alongside Tom Kean and Lisa Abramowitz. I'm Jonathan Farrow. Your equity market on the S &P slightly negative by 0 .1 % on the S &P 500. That data is 90 minutes away. TK, that data, U .S. CPI. It's going to be nominal data there, the core number, and then on top of it the inflation number. We studied it all. We'll give you Michael McKee's treatment here at 8 .30. Just printing moments ago, the 10 -year real yield, John, pops up to a 1 .96%. That's a two basis point move here, and that's underlying churn here between nominal analysis and real analysis. We'll do that at 8 .30. And the difference, Tom, between core and headline within the data itself. Core, we're making progress. Headline, do we have a problem? Lisa, Brent Crude, 92 .65, WTI, 89 .50. There's a big debate. Does headline matter? If you do see a pop up.
Bloomberg Radio New York - Recording Feed
Monitor Show 07:00 09-12-2023 07:00
"659 on Wall Street. Stay with us. Bloomberg surveillance with Tom Kean, Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz starts right now. Broadcasting 24 hours a day at Bloomberg .com and the Bloomberg Business Act. This is Bloomberg Radio. Center banks around the world, both developed and emerging, are fighting inflation. I really think it's about ECB policy, how that relates to Fed policy in this US dollar. The consumer remains strong, so there kind of continues the challenge that the Fed has. The last mile is going to be hard, but I do believe that we are very much on that disinflationary trend. I think we're in this very like hold your breath kind of moment. This is Bloomberg surveillance with Tom Kean, Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. In many ways the week begins today. A from New York City this morning. Good morning, good morning for our audience worldwide. This is Bloomberg surveillance on TV and radio alongside Tom Kean and Lisa Abramowitz. I'm Jonathan Farrow. Your equity market slightly negative by 0 .2 % on the S &P 500. Tomorrow the big data point. CPI just around the corner tomorrow morning. Stateside, before we get there, later on this afternoon a much anticipated iPhone 15 launch, Tom, after a week of weakness from that Apple stock. Can we try to get Apple tied into the CPI report? Can we do one strike? I don't think we can. Higher prices. There it is, you know, there it is. We're going to see it this afternoon. We've got a full Bloomberg technology team. Ed Ludlow, Caroline Hyde. Styling, they're there. Bases loaded, TK. You know, it's going to be there. They're doing, I think they're doing a new iWatch, iWatch not getting much traction. AirPods better get traction. Another set. Well, we've got, we've got an odd set under the couch, so we've got to replenish. With a new set.
Bloomberg Radio New York - Recording Feed
Monitor Show 07:00 09-11-2023 07:00
"Daybreak. I'm Nathan Hager, alongside Karen Moscow. 659 on Wall Street. Stay with us. Bloomberg Surveillance with Tom Kean, Jonathan Farrow, and Lisa Abramowitz starts right now. Broadcasting 24 hours a day at Bloomberg .com and the Bloomberg Business Act. This is Bloomberg Radio. We think there's more downside risk here as we go through the next few months. When the yields move, they're going to move down at a lot. The question is not whether things are declining, it's whether they're declining fast enough. I think positioning has really changed and you've seen that inflection and sentiment in the options market. The bottom line is they fit. Once to slow things down, don't fight the fit. This is Bloomberg Surveillance with Tom Kean, Jonathan Farrow, and Lisa Abramowitz. Live from New York City this morning. Good morning, good morning for our audience worldwide. This is Bloomberg Surveillance on TV and Radio, alongside Tom Kean and Lisa Abramowitz. I'm Jonathan Farrow, your equity market on the S &P 500. Nicely positive here by 0 .4 % following a week of losses and pushing ahead to retail sales on Thursday, CPI on Wednesday, and the main event, Tom, going into the Federal Reserve a week away. I take your point. I think this has not been said enough. There's a Fed meeting after the ECB meeting. It maybe has a little bit of import. Nothing's going to happen at it. It's a dead meeting. It's a live meeting. But, you know, I take your point. You got to get to the Fed meeting. There's some data in front of it as well. But are all eyes on November? I think so. I think we've just leapt forward to a November analysis. The hawks on the committee aren't screaming hike in September. If you listen to the economists on Wall Street, those that think we get another hike, I'm thinking Andrew Holland, Horster City, perhaps Mike Gape and a Bank of America thinking that risk still exists. They're looking to November, Tom, not September. The Fed wants to be patient now. Wait to see if there is further evidence of a re -acceleration of this economy, which leads to an acceleration.
Bloomberg Radio New York - Recording Feed
Monitor Show 07:00 09-08-2023 07:00
"659 on Wall Street. Stay with us. Bloomberg Surveillance with Tom Kean, Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz starts right now. Broadcasting 24 hours a day at Bloomberg .com and the Bloomberg Business Act. This is Bloomberg Radio. It's been a pretty impressive cooling of the labor market throughout the course of this year. We are expecting the inflation numbers to continue to come down. Part of what's driving our inflation today is lack of labor supply. I'm not sure that we've seen all the pain that this increase in interest rates will cause to the economy yet. I believe that the soft landing scenario is the worst case scenario. This is Bloomberg Surveillance with Tom Kean, Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. Soft patch going into the weekend. So weakness in this equity market. Three days of losses on the S &P. Hello day four. Your equity market looks like this. Futures negative by 0 .1%. Going into the Federal Reserve in a couple of weeks' time. That meeting just around the corner. The quiet period for Fed speakers. That begins in about a day's time, TK. I just want to go back to it. I'm old school on this. I'm sorry, everybody talks too much. Is that including us? Yeah, I was about to say. Everybody, there's too many speeches. Can we just get a rule where they can only speak once a week? Should I restart the show? Life in New York City this morning, good morning, good morning. Does that help? Is that better? Just stop talking? No, I'm not talking about you. I'm talking about the Fed presidents and all the communication. Well, they stop now, don't they? From tomorrow? Yeah, which is good. They should stop all the time. That's where I am. All right, Bramo, you're allowed to speak. It's okay. Thank you, I appreciate that. You've got Tom's permission this morning. Okay, that's very exciting. I think it's a very hard message and what we've been hearing from Fed officials has been pretty consistent, which is...
Bloomberg Radio New York - Recording Feed
Monitor Show 07:00 09-07-2023 07:00
"Karen Moscow 659 is the time on Wall Street Bloomberg surveillance with Tom Kean Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz Starts right now Broadcasting 24 hours a day at Bloomberg .com and the Bloomberg Business Act. This is Bloomberg radio We wonder if the consumer is beginning to bend not necessarily break I think the last thing consumers need at this point in time is a spike in oil prices and gas prices Does energy drive the economy or does the economy drive energy? Oil prices going up even for a short time just complicates this narrative for the Fed Figuring out when to stop the rate hike cycle is always a really really tricky business for central banks This is Bloomberg surveillance with Tom Kean Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz It's tempting to avoid a third day of losses here on the S &P 500 live from New York City this morning Good morning. Good morning for our audience worldwide. This is Bloomberg surveillance on TV and radio alongside Tom Kean and Lisa Abramowitz I'm Jonathan Farrow your equity markets negative by zero point three percent on the S &P 500 Apple Down and down hard this morning off by three percent TK after a softer session Just yesterday evolving a lot of opinions on this and I'd say a lot of unknown unknowns as dr. Alerian would say we really don't know what the ramifications are. Certainly you mentioned mr Ives with a bullish cast on Apple says it's not that big a deal But yeah, I agree.
Bloomberg Radio New York - Recording Feed
Monitor Show 07:00 09-05-2023 07:00
"6 .59 on Wall Street. Stay with us. Bloomberg Surveillance with Tom Kean, Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz starts right now. Broadcasting 24 hours a day at Bloomberg .com and the Bloomberg Business Act. This is Bloomberg Radio. This economy has outperformed this year, both in terms of growth and bringing inflation down. Inflation is going to come down faster and that would allow the Fed to cut in 2024. They've been able to slow employment and they've been able to do it without significantly raising the unemployment rate. The labor markets are normalizing. I think it would be really unlikely that they're going to move at the next meeting. This is Bloomberg Surveillance with Tom Kean, Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. It is not the September people forecasted about nine months ago. Live from New York City this morning. Good morning, good morning for our audience worldwide. This is Bloomberg Surveillance on TV and radio. Alongside Tom Kean and Lisa Abramowitz, I'm Jonathan Farrow, your equity market on the S &P 500. Trying to recover down by almost a tenth of one percent on the S &P right now. TK, things are better, far, far better than we thought they would be nine months ago. Yeah, some would call this New Year's for the business community to hear back from the summer, kids back to school today, tomorrow, the next day, whatever. I mean, it's sort of like an important moment forward. And as you say, they didn't get September nine months ago. I didn't think they got September or August five weeks ago. It has been a topsy -turvy end of summer. Why should September be any different? Goldman Sachs, recession, 15 percent. We get the quote up from Jan Hatzius. Read as follows. First, real disposable income looks set to reaccelerate in 2024. Goes on to sound the back of continued solid job growth and rising real wages. Second, we strongly disagree. Lisa, I know you've got a view on this one.
Bloomberg Radio New York - Recording Feed
Monitor Show 07:00 09-01-2023 07:00
"59 on Wall Street stay with us Bloomberg surveillance with Tom Kean Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Bromwich starts right now Broadcasting 24 hours a day at Bloomberg .com and the Bloomberg Business Act. This is Bloomberg radio If you look at the economic data, I mean it just keeps coming in showing a tight labor market We keep getting these numbers drawing spending in essence We're seeing the economy is genuinely slowing some but it's not falling off the cliff I think the equity market is focused on earnings We are in sort of a lull waiting for the labor market to catch cold so that we can actually yes Stop this acceleration in wages at the end of the day The question going forward is can the consumer continue to live beyond means this is Bloomberg surveillance with Tom Kean Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz a Good morning Everyone Jonathan Farrow Lisa Ramos and Tom Kean Jobs Day Farrow off Bramo off Catherine Greif old in she'll be doing the real yield at some point here Recorded after the jobs report you'll look for that through the weekend as well and out of jobs a great set of guests We'll get to that in a moment here What we've got is an equity celebration and continues the bears in retreat in August features up 15 Dow futures up 119 the VIX a bull market 13 .47 we don't have the banner, but as I mentioned yesterday coming off the lows the VIX from 31 Flip the numbers down to a 13 Handle that shows a shock that we've seen here Katie Greif felt.
Bloomberg Radio New York - Recording Feed
Monitor Show 07:00 08-31-2023 07:00
"More than 12 % after that earnings disappointment. Bloomberg's surveillance of Tom Kean, Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Bromwich starts right now. Broadcasting 24 hours a day at Bloomberg .com and the Bloomberg Business Act. This is Bloomberg Radio. Since the beginning of this hiking cycle, we've tried to say a soft landing is the most likely outcome. We're clearly nowhere near where the Fed wants us to be on inflation, but momentum is easing. The Fed is looking for an excuse not to hike. The Fed has already signaled that they plan to cut rates by 100 basis points next year. I think we close the door to a September Fed hike. This is Bloomberg Surveillance with Tom Kean, Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Bromwich. August coming to a close. It's almost September, a day away from New York City this morning. Good morning, good morning for our audience worldwide. This is Bloomberg Surveillance on TV and on radio. Alongside Tom Kean, I'm Jonathan Farrow together with Katie Lyons. Your equity market right now slightly positive on the S &P on a four day winning streak and attempting to make it five. The fate of today's session in the hands of maybe jobless claims a little bit later. Tom, a bunch of other things as well after a week full of jobs data heading in the right direction for the doves on the F1C. I'm going to look at personal income, personal spending as well. But to kind of find the bull market and we've got Jay Polaski coming up. Very important conversation here. 13 .91 on the VIX. So this August, August is terrible. Crash in 98, you know, the terror August, you know, just go to cash. I said it earlier. We're down 1 .6 % in August on the S &P. I mean, don't participate. And I'm sorry. There we are. And it wasn't just the Apple. I mean, yeah, the tech stocks are always there, but other stocks are there because of the wall of money that has to find a place to go. It can't.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"jonathan farrow" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"All is it's here, rates This but have Markets we're one still have not more is been, sure last I Bloomberg push would they're say, in Surveillance them done. we very are It's with still accommodative so expecting Tom and the problem unclear awaits. recently. one Kean, last what I think if rate there's hike path a the surprise, the problem economy is Good the fed could pause morning everyone, Jonathan Farrow, Lisa Raminson, Tom Kean on radio, television, Kaylee lines, the short story, she won't be here Friday. They will They will not be here Friday. I will be here Friday with a jobs day discussion, but a ton happening before we get there in breaking moments ago, John, in Germany, a tick higher in year over year Germanized inflation. It's a journey. They're having with inflation in Germany, and I'm sorry. There's a lot going on between jolts and the shock of yesterday in America, and jolts in the Spanish inflation shock that we saw today down slightly from the previous month in Germany, but it's an upside surprise, regardless. And there are some out there who believe perhaps this leaves the door open for the ECB to make a move on September 14th. Others after the data of yesterday, job -opening data in America, believing that that closes the door on the Fed making a move, Tom, on September 20th. So that's where we are. The data yesterday fuel for the doves to take to the table when the FOMC gathers next month. We'll see what we get later today. ADP, 14 minutes away. Tomorrow, jobless claims payrolls Friday. Things can change, but so far so good for the doves this week, Tom, with the data yesterday. Euro comes off fractionally intraday here a little bit weaker. Euro don't want to sell that. Let's get back on track with the U .S. And John, I'm sorry, something happened yesterday and no, it wasn't a jump condition, but to me it was boom. Maybe things have changed. There's a distinction, Tom, John, I'm sorry, It's on this program suggesting this might be closer to the latter than the former, which is interesting because we spent the last couple of months talking about resilient a U .S. economy. Overwhelmingly, the consensus view is we're making the right kind of progress. Job openings down back to 21 levels. Quits rate dropping, Tom, indicating maybe we're taking some heat at this labor market. That's the objective of this Federal Reserve. For Ian Lingan, though, Tom, I would say at at a consensus the moment, going really hard, saying that Treasury market, that 10 -year, is a screaming buy. He thinks that yield can drop to 3 % in line with what Michael, the JP Morgan, what he's been calling for over the last couple of years. Tom, where are we now? $4 .15 on a 10 -year? He's looking for more than 100 basis points lower 10 on a -year yield. I'm going to look at the real yield here. 1 .86 % down from 1 .9192 yesterday into the screaming that buy Mr. Lingan has on the nominal 10 -year yield. I just wonder as he framed out the real yield where that goes and that could be a changed world for equities. Well, and he said that where it is right now and up to what $2 .15 is where the Fed would like to see it, that question of the Fed's. Yes, but at what John is speaking to, the idea that maybe we're starting to see potentially a real deterioration. What Ian Lingan was suggesting, are they going to be comfortable with that? When you still had Loretta Mester as recently as last week at Jackson Hole saying we'd rather over tighten than under tighten. Maybe they already have gone too far, but is that what they would have rather done? Not far enough. Veronica Clark reaffirmed this yesterday on the Mester View, they've got a long way to go. You mentioned City, Hold On Horse just published, you'll like this headline Tom, Jolted by Lower Job Openings. But, and there is a but here, a historically low unemployment rate and high ratio of openings to unemployed individuals suggests the labor market remains tight enough to prevent wage growth from sustainably slowing down. Are we making progress? Yes. Is it sufficient in the mind of Andrew Hold On Horse and City? No. We're going to do a quick data check here, touch on the pecan and get the petered shear. John, my data check's simple, I got a vix at 14 .52, it's a bare market, things are terrible. Loss is year to date on the S &P, there aren't any, they're double digit gains. Loss is month to date, we're just a little bit lower than 2 % on a month on the S &P, Tom. I got 4500 SPX, the Dow's nudging 35 ,000, we're not there. I'm not near 16 ,000 NASDAQ 100, but hey, it's a bare market. Equities right now on the S &P, negative 0 %, if you are just tuning in, unfamiliar with this program, that was a heavy dose of sarcasm underpinning Tom's line there on this is a market. bare In the bond market yields are higher by a couple of basis points, 414 on a 10 year, just about 10 minutes away from that ADP reports on the estimate. For those that care in our survey, it's the estimate for the ADP number, the previous number 324 click on the hurricane here. We have land. hit We've gone from the shock of category four in the early morning hours down to category three and moments ago, a headline of some confusion, Franklin far towards Bermuda, John, it's hurricane season, tropical storm conditions heading to Bermuda later on today, Tom. And as you say, it's hurricane season continues for a number of months. We'll give you full coverage here. Thank you, Rob. Carolyn for attendance earlier this morning. Thank you to Peter Shear for attendance right now. Had a macro strategy academy charities. Peter, did your journey in the markets, did it change yesterday with a jolts report? Not really. It was more or less in line with what we're looking for is basically the Fed is looking for an excuse not to hike. So they're going to be looking across a broad spectrum of data. And I think the one area that's going to disappoint is jobs. I think there are going to be downward revisions. You mentioned a bunch of other parts of the jolt report yesterday. The hires rate continues to drop down. There's been this dichotomy that the hires rate has been very strangely low relative to job openings. I think that's going to catch up. So as jobs slow down, I think the Fed's going to have the excuse to do nothing. And then it's going to become a question of were all the economists, including myself, who are looking for a recession this year, going to turn out to be right or not. Okay. Well, as we talk about whether or not you turn out to be right, if the job market is slowing if down, we're starting to see the growth deterioration happen, but inflation is still too far above where the Fed would like to be, which they say still is 2%, what do they do then? I think the key word is they say is still 3%. I'm not sure it's really 3%. I think they're going to be looking for excuses to delay. So I think we get tenure yields back to 3 % and then we're going to need significant either jobs data, consumer sales data, real inflation data again, because they're already trying
Bloomberg Radio New York - Recording Feed
Monitor Show 07:00 08-30-2023 07:00
"659 on Wall Street Bloomberg surveillance with Tom Kean Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz starts right now Broadcasting 24 hours a day at Bloomberg .com and the Bloomberg Business Act. This is Bloomberg radio Everyone's still data -dependent and everyone's still basically concerned We really don't know where we're going. I think the trend in global rates is still up I think everyone's been surprised and we've been so resilient up until this point I think we're in a pause period now, but I suspect we'll have a strong fourth order the bar for a rate hike in September I think is pretty high. This is Bloomberg surveillance with Tom Kean Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz It is jobs week in America not jobs day life from New York City this morning. Good morning Good morning for our audience worldwide. This is Bloomberg surveillance on TV and radio alongside Tom Kean I'm Jonathan Farrow together with Kelly lines your equity market just about a negative on the S &P 500 down after a big one -day pop on the S &P and the Nasdaq in yesterday's session Tom off the back of job openings data ADP a little bit later claims tomorrow payrolls on Friday. Well, we're gonna see what the perils are again I'm gonna say it's a wage report It's going to be interesting to see for the Fed and for what it means for equity markets what the wage Dynamic is much more than the actual non -farm payrolls Number and that's where the jolt survey came in yesterday. We're jolted at the market. Can we state the VIX under 15? I think that's a bull market 14 .5.
Bloomberg Radio New York - Recording Feed
Monitor Show 07:00 08-29-2023 07:00
"Stay with us, Bloomberg Surveillance with Tom Kean, Jonathan Farrow, and Lisa Abramowitz. They're back together again and it starts right now. Broadcasting 24 hours a day at Bloomberg .com and the Bloomberg Business Act. This is Bloomberg Radio. We're growing above trend. We're certainly seeing surprising resilience in many, many areas and, you know, that resilience may continue. I do think the strengths need to be resistant to the next year. As we look out three years, we will have seen peak inflation, we will have seen peak Fed. This pause period has continued to be moved out. We do think there is quite a bit of fragmentation in the economy right now. This is Bloomberg Surveillance with Tom Kean, Jonathan Farrow, and Lisa Abramowitz. It is Jobs Week in America. Life in New York City this morning. Good morning, good morning. For our audience worldwide, this is Bloomberg Surveillance on TV and radio. Alongside Tom Kean, I'm Jonathan Farrow. Together this morning with Katie Lyons, your equity market just slightly negative on the S &P 500. Tom, job openings a little bit later. ADP tomorrow. Jobless claims Thursday. Then onto Friday when you get that payrolls report. In a Labor Day with a 3 .5 % unemployment rate, John, if you parachuted in from another decade, another era, a 3 .5 % unemployment rate would be unmitigated bipartisan celebration. Why are we so screwed up? That's a question for Katie Lyons, Tom. I'd throw in GDP in a mix as well. Potentially with a three handle this quarter. Fed funds at 5 .5%. And you might ask this question if you came down from Mars. Are we sufficiently restrictive, Tom? No, no, no. I sent an email to somebody today. I can't remember what it was to be honest. John, we are not sufficiently restrictive.
Bloomberg Radio New York - Recording Feed
Monitor Show 07:00 08-24-2023 07:00
"Much more on that and more. Bloomberg surveillance with Tom Kean, Jonathan Farrow, and Lisa Abramowitz starts right now. Broadcasting 24 hours a day at Bloomberg .com and the Bloomberg Business Act. This is Bloomberg Radio. Now, unfortunately, we've seen this deterioration in breadth and it's sort of across the board. The consumer can spend if it wants, it has a lot of savings, but it's a question of confidence. They continue to prioritize services or continue to prioritize food and drinking places. The consumer will start to face headwinds in our humble opinion. It's going to be difficult to get to that last mile of inflation decline from 3 percent to 2 percent. This is Bloomberg surveillance with Tom Kean, Jonathan Farrow, and Lisa Abramowitz. From New York City, for our audience worldwide, this is Bloomberg surveillance alongside Damien Sasseour and Gina Martin Adams. I'm Matt Miller. Tom, John, and Lisa are all in Jackson Hole ahead of our special coverage tomorrow. I'm told that they are doing some reporting today. Obviously, there are a lot of very important people there hanging out at that wherever the million dollar cowboy bar or the mangy moose or whatever the cool place is to go. And then tomorrow, starting at 8 a .m., we'll have our special coverage of Jackson Hole. So 8 a .m., I believe until noon New York time, it's 1 p .m. in London, 8 p .m. in Hong Kong. Definitely don't miss television. I can't wait to see if any of them is wearing a cowboy hat. Mike McKee had. Did you see him yesterday? I did. I was on radio with Mike. I saw him. Amazing outfit. He always comes. Fantastic. He always brings it to Jackson Hole.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"jonathan farrow" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Yesterday. The nikkei up a 5th of a percent and the ASX 200 as rallied about four tenths of a percent, but the equity futures trending a little bit lower here Hans index futures, for instance, down about 8 tenths of a percent. And the U.S. stumbled a little bit, investors balking a bit at the prices paid measures and the latest data that was out and investors raising their wagers on peak rates. So that is constraining the market yield on the ten year 3.99%. Doug back to you. All right, Brian, thanks. Well, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson is the firm's chief U.S. equity strategist, and he is widely followed. Well, now he's issued a warning the worst is still ahead for U.S. company earnings. He spoke earlier in the day with the Bloomberg's Jonathan farrow. Arch can be both seasonally positive or negative, but what we're seeing is this pattern over the last year where we're in an earnings downtrend. And there's a presumption now, I think by the market that because the economic data has been a little bit better than expected, including what we were expecting, that the earnings declines are now over. And that's now what we think. And the way the market's been trading over the last three or four quarters is the market figures it out the month before earnings because the word kind of gets out that maybe things aren't so great and that last calendar month and then of course when the company's report and the numbers actually come down, the stocks have kind of relief rally thinking, okay, the worst is behind us, but it's been kind of this repetitive pattern. So that pattern holds in March should be the month where the first quarter earnings get digested, even though the revisions are coming down yet. The market gets ahead of it by about a month. Mike, there is a concept that I hear you use and seeing your research repeatedly. It's negative operating leverage. Now Mike for people who aren't in the equity market like you are, don't follow this stuff like maybe other people do. What is that concept mean? And why is it so important right now? It's a very simple kind of set if anybody who's been doing this for any period of time understands it, which is that when you get positive operating leverage is basically the leverage the company's earnings have to revenue growth. And so when the pandemic, of course, we had incredible positive operating leverage because costs were slow to come back as people were stuck at home, but the revenues came roaring back as we digitized the economy and we were able to operate. So we had this windfall profit and we think that that windfall profit was very broad. It wasn't just a few companies benefiting from COVID. It was all over the economy. And as you know, John, we've been talking about this for a while. And now, of course, we have evidence that that negative operating leverage is going negative, meaning we're seeing it deterioration and earnings growth. I'm sorry, revenue growth, but then we're getting a much more severe decline in the earnings. And we just saw a couple of companies you mentioned in the retail space where that is being played out in spades. And that is going to happen across the economy. The evidence is already overwhelming. It's been most apparent in the tech space because that's where the over investment was the most egregious. And now we're seeing companies deal with that, but we think they're going to be woefully slow to get those costs down to a level where you think they need to to get the margins to stabilize. So that's the thesis. It's playing out. I think some people think the worst is behind us. We think the worst is still probably ahead for most companies. Mike Wilson there, the chief U.S. equity strategist over at Morgan Stanley talking to our Jonathan farrow
Bloomberg Radio New York
"jonathan farrow" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Podcast from London are Jonathan farrow with Peter Oppenheimer of Goldman Sachs. Very slowly people are warming up to it and it's been a long time coming. I know that. But performance attracts investors and we've seen 30% rebound in the European market since October, at least in dollar terms. And that is starting to energize a bit of interest in the region. And it reflects the big shift we've seen towards value. Again, something we haven't seen now for more than a decade. So clearly we've priced that recession with priced Instagram stagnation and investors are focused on the difference between the two. I get all that. But now we need to talk about the difference between stagnation and real recovery and expansion and that's been a theme for us this week. When do we start to focus on the fact that there is no growth in Europe is just an absence of a recession and what we've seen so far is a bit of a squeeze of relief rally and perhaps nothing else. Well, I think we need to put it in context here. We think that the global economy is in a relatively good shape and we expect to see a soft landing in the U.S., but we also now expect to see a relatively soft landing in Europe. The falls in gas prices have helped to pick up in China as well. But the absence of recession, as you say, doesn't mean we're yet into a strong recovery cycle. And I think the rebound that we've seen in risk assets in the last couple of months is overstating the potential from here at the index level. We've got flat returns in the U.S. this year, slightly positive returns in Europe. So we prefer Europe. We
Bloomberg Radio New York
"jonathan farrow" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Asset management chief investment strategist with a note of optimism among a lot of gloom. Tom Kane, Jonathan farrow Lisa brahmas Tom and John are both off Davy and sass hour is with me today and I'm so pleased to say he can give you much better World Cup coverage as well as all things having to do with emerging markets. Right now, I want to go straight to our guests. He is one of the brightest minds on Wall Street. Christian Mueller glisten managing director of four portfolio strategy at Goldman Sachs and Christian, I want to start in Damien's specialty in the developing world because overnight the lockdowns in Beijing, the first lockdown in the capital of China. To me, is a really significant story that changes potentially the narrative for next year. How do you view that story in light of some of the optimism around China's reopening? I make a great point. I think if you think about outlook for next year, like China was one of those bright spots because there's asymmetry, the economy is in its niece for clear reasons like asset prices in very bearish kind of territory. So it felt like there is a story that's emerging that came to some extent support next year and drive growth acceleration trif that trough and economic activity. But I think what we're learning and I think what our economists have been seeing as well, it's going to be incredibly bumpy. I think the end game is that China will probably by second half of next year accelerate with regards to growth helped by the reopening, but the path to that could be incredibly bumpy and the real reopening we always thought would occur kind of around Q two. And as you see those cases go up, you could say that the risk is definitely that it's being pushed further out. But Christian, how does this affect the different parameters if it reopens if it doesn't, the bumpiness that you see? Is it bullish if they reopen if that means incredible demand suddenly coming online for energy? And for commodities, generally, at a time when that's one of the main drivers of disinflation right now. Yeah, you highlight one of the big dissonances like one of the big kind of negative cycles there. I think right now, as you know, oil prices have come down significantly like curves are in the front end, a bit in contango. So I think you're dealing currently with the setup where there is a bit of a buffer, but you're absolutely right. There is definitely a chance of a replay of headline inflation volatility next year, which then feeds a bit into rates and to some extent kind of can drive also spill over to risky assets. But I think at this juncture, this full reopening, as I mentioned, is to ask more of an H two story. I think in the near term, it seems to be more of a drag on oil than anything. But it does highlight something which you mentioned, I think to me, risk premium in the last month have significantly come down across the board on China assets, but also on global cyclic assets on China exposed companies in Europe, and it just feels like there's not that many good growth stories to go on. The market has embraced it very quickly, partially that has contributed to a bit of a false start in kind of relief on the growth side and it could very quickly reverse to some extent if that doesn't prove to be the case. Well, let's just crystallize that. I mean, a bit of relief. I mean, we saw 22% increase in the hang seng, China enterprises index October. But we're still down 27% year to date. Talk to me. I think investors are realizing myself included, that you just can't have zero exposure to emerging markets in China, right? So my question for you is, what is the best way to get that China exposure? What is the best way to play the reopening narrative in China? You make a great point there because it's been really difficult for international investors for strategic point of view. To get excited about China. And there's a concern with regards to how investors will benefit from China economic roles in the coming years. There's been a concern with regards to obviously zero COVID. And at the same time, you have this reopening story. The reopening story, if you follow the kind of template from developed markets should be very good for domestic consumer cyclicals, services sectors, and it's not easy to get exposure to that via the headline indices. Our team generally have become quite a bit more constructive. The whole north Asia complex, which they think will be pulled along, so you can diversify to some extent, just being in China with maybe being a bit more in Korea, being a bit more in Taiwan. But in the end, if you really want to kind of go directly exposed to the reopening, you need to go potentially much more on specific sectors, specific stocks, and it becomes much more of an alpha theme. So our strategy team, they've created a basket for that, which clearly for a lot of the asset allocators I speak to, that becomes too specific. Christian echo talks South Korean Taiwan with the all day. But let's shift back to the U.S.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"jonathan farrow" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Please should be does have to remind itself and remind markets I should say that it's primary ethos is to control inflation. We don't think that these people will reach a restrictive territory before the start of 2023. The global economy is not getting very soft at the moment. Inflation will probably be staying sticky and hard and companies will pass some of that through. There is lower inflation in the pipeline, but it's not in the headline figures yet, and I don't think the fed is prepared to blink. This is Bloomberg surveillance with Tom Keene, Jonathan farrow, and Lisa Abramovich. Good morning, everyone. Jonathan Farrah, Lisa Bradley and Sam king. We welcome you on a Friday on radio on television. We welcome you to double digit inflation. No, not food inflation in the United States. John farrow, Germany joins Italy. This is ugly. 11 handle for CPI in Germany year over year, 11.6% on CPI. And we've got a big turn of events in this bond market too. Yesterday, major rally, yields lower today, big sell off your tap at the front end of the curve Tom in Germany, the two year up 17 basis points. My problem with this is really, really smart people thinking really, really hard, are undershooting the trend everywhere and you wonder if that's going to be in the United States as well. We said it a few times. We keep talking about peak inflation time. If it's in our past in America, is it still in our future in Europe? Because that inflation number is getting worse, have this conversation yesterday about the ECB, having some kind of step down. Let's talk about how difficult it is for this European Central Bank this week. 75 basis point hike, CPI in Germany with an 11 handle and Lisa PMIs in the 40s. That is the central bankers dilemma. Downside risk the growth upside risk to inflation, what on earth do you do with interest rates? Especially at a time when you did not get the worst case scenario come to fruition or whether it has been somewhat mild, you haven't seen those stockpiles of natural gas come down as much as they had feared and still inflation is coming in harder than people expected, even with lower prices, you wonder, Tom, how this is going to play out. Considering that the ECB is going to try to crack down and we do have a lag. Bring it over to the United States, John two days, Halloween. I'm going as a swap line on Tuesday, November 1. ISM manufacturing survey is 50.0 and a 49 handle there again as that tendency. We'll say if we start to get that downturn in America, Tom, you saw that subtle hints of that in the GDP report. Yesterday, many people did. Well, okay, I take the point here that again, Chris Lowe was outstanding on this of a really fragile GDP report, but here this morning, bringing it over to earnings, forget about Twitter and all that theater. There's some good earnings out there, but everyone focused on big tech dealing with inflammation, dealing with the dynamics of dollars. With a focused on big tech because that's where the waiting is. That's where the power is, the big weightings in a market cap weighted S&P 500. You look how swear our energy Exxon Chevron, crushing it through the air and today on the quarter Tom. Great numbers. What are we here from President Biden, Lisa today? You've talked to Ann Marie and others here. I mean, does the administration get out front here and full election panic? Well, they probably will. They're probably say that this is going to really get their investments up that it isn't as significant as it could be. But what's the actually going to do given that we have two weeks? Two weeks, so the election. And it's not clear what they can do. David costan was a serious in a moment. Let's get through the data John very quickly. I'm going to do yen quickly here backs up off BOJ one 47 51 rounded up one 48. Where is that statistics Sunday? 7 p.m.. Did you just say bad axon as if X was a dog's name? Yeah, Exxon. The president's hospital. That total. Is that what the president's going to do? Bad exercise. Just stop it. Of the election, they're going to get crushed in Washington because they're going to go up there. They're going to be there, you know, I promise to sell the truth the whole truth. And they're going to go project your project. You're going to get a costume before it runs away. You do the data again before costumes waiting for a day. And it's already futures it down by about 5 tenths of 1%. The bond market yields are higher by 9 basis points. The higher in Europe, that CPI print from Germany's ugly. David Carson Goldman Sachs joins us this morning. David, can you explain to me how your world has changed from when I studied three to 4% FX adjustment on equities and all of a sudden we're doing dollar adjustment of 6%, 8% and the CFO of Apple said near 10% yesterday. How does your world change with strong dollar? Well, the way the world changes from a fundamental point here in the United States is that 70% of the revenues of U.S. companies are actually generated domestically. So therefore, the sensitivity of companies from a corporate point of view is largely going to be focused in the technology sector where almost 60% of their sales are overseas. So from that point of view, Tom, the translation back is really going to be focused in certain areas as opposed to broadly across the market. When you look at the sales of healthcare companies, utilities and the telecom companies, even financials, largely domestic in nature, and therefore it's less sensitive than maybe is widely perceived. But it is definitely a concern and a focus on some of the global multinationals tech in particular. I'll tell you, let's talk about buybacks. This came from market insider yesterday. Listen to these numbers, meta spent 45 billion on buybacks last year, paying about three 30 a share on average meta yesterday close with a 97 handle. David cost him what on earth is going to happen with corporate buybacks in the year to come. And just walk us through because I know you and the team at Goldman do so much work on this. The importance of buybacks as a feature of demand in this equity market. So Jonathan critical point is the fact that over the last ten years, every year, the single biggest source of demand for U.S. shares has been corporate repurchases. So question here is this year there'll be up around 5% versus a year ago. And our forecast next year is they'll probably decline by about 10%. So 10% less buybacks in 2023 than this year, that's assuming a soft landing. Jonathan, if you had a recession scenario that's probably down 40%. That is, again, a very significant development in the terms of the confidence the CEOs have in the outlook for business activity in the coming year. That does drive some of their decisions on their capital spending. I've spoken with some boards this week as they think about their uses of cash in the coming 12 months. The idea of how important capital spending is, relative to research and development dollars, how do they think about the prioritization of merger and acquisition spending, but buybacks has been the default use of cash for a lot of companies. And that is likely to be receding as we look into calendar 2023 and that again has been the single biggest support function for equity prices in the last ten years. David, just to sort of underline this point, how much do you expect this to pull back in terms of how much stocks can gain? Just simply because this massive buyer will not be there. Well, it's a big issue. We think about flow of funds if you want to think about it in that context. The idea of pension funds is countercyclical buyers would be one area of source of demand, partially
Bloomberg Radio New York
"jonathan farrow" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Because the original target was 80% by November 1st. And it's the end of August so there you go. Just a little bit of good news out there in Europe. Like from New York City this morning, a good morning with Tom Keene and Lisa brahmi, Sam Jonathan farrow, futures passing back, kinda on the S&P by not even two tenths of 1% on the NASDAQ 100 up 62 points. About half of 1% a year to higher by two or three basis points three 13. Not going to neglect this. I think we have over the last 90 minutes or so, but crude and 88 handles were breaking down there by 2.9%, 88, 95. There were some concerns about supply out of Iraq, I think Iraq has come down those concerns about supply out of Iraq. And then on the horizon for the last, I think 12 months at least, this ideally so that maybe just maybe there is a deal from Iran, but I feel like we've been talking about that forever. This to me is a recession call. It's basically a higher prices that are cannibalizing demand and the more that the world slows down, particularly led by China. The less demand there will be. And that's what's leading to lower prices. That's been sort of the theme of the past three months. I'm with you. Demand destruction some. Back on the table. I think the jury's out and I link it to the COVID policy of Asia if they change their COVID policy. Maybe you get an Asia boom as some have written about some of the optimism J poloski JPMorgan and others on the Pacific. We get an oil update on your next gallon of gas with will Kennedy senior excuse me. Your next gallon of petrol will Kennedy joined senior executive editor commodities in London. Well, there's a tone out there from a select few of a potential global disinflation for all the other matters out there. Is oil is the will Kennedy world linked to the possibility of a global disinflation or is oil separate? I don't think it's separate at all. I think that the oil is being put under pressure by a lot of different things, some of which John just mentioned there geopolitical things, but the thing that's really putting under pressure, the prospect of higher rates and a stronger dollar, the stronger dollar has proved a huge headwind for oil and is one of the things that stopped it getting traction. But the other thing I want to say about the oil market is it's remains hugely volatile. We're getting these big swings. The Saudi oil minister intervened in the market last week to say to people, look, don't ride us off. We're willing to cut production if we need to. That sent oil up as hard as a 106 for Brent. We're $10 below that now. And it's interesting to me that Pierre van de van took to Twitter this morning just to say that in history the oil market is broken at these moves don't make sense. They're not fundamentally driven. They reflect a lack of liquidity in the market and it's quite hard to read oil from a fundamental perspective right now because a lot of people aren't totally sure the price signal. Who's the country you're watching? Who's the marginal player OPEC plus OPEC minus the United States, all the rest of it. Who's the country that is a decider of oil dynamics into September? I think there are four things we need to watch Tom. Sorry for the slightly long answer, China, as you mentioned, the huge driver of demand, Russia. We've got more sanctions coming on all at the end of the year. What will that do to production? Will they be able to sell more oil to Asia and less to Europe? Saudi Arabia, how do they respond to this market? Do they follow through? On the threat of cuts. And finally, the USA, there are two things to watch in America. Firstly, we're about to stop withdrawals from the SPR, which has been a huge source of comfort to the market, putting that oil into the market and shale isn't growing as fast as people expected as a very interesting column from my friend Javier blass this morning about how expensive pipe is getting in the shale patch and that's dampening growth. So we've got to keep an eye on those four countries. I think as we look to the market into the end of the year. Will we often probe this particular topic, but let's do it again. Can you frame how difficult this winter is going to be and the decisions that some of these governments still haven't made that they need to make in the next few weeks. Well, I think it's instructive just to give you some examples from the UK actually where people are starting to realize just how catastrophic their bills are going to be and businesses in particular who are more exposed to free market prices than households in some respects. We're seeing all these stories of people running cafes, pubs, and they're facing bills that are going up 5 times. And frankly, people are saying, how can I operate my businesses on that basis? And they're saying, without some form of government help, I'm going to fold. So I think you're starting to get a picture about how this could really impact the wider economy. And if these energy prices are left unchecked for small businesses for consumers in the UK and other European countries, it's going to have a catastrophic economic impact. And I think what we're watching is how governments respond in the UK how the new prime minister we get next week responds because I think it's going to need a big policy intervention. Well, there's a plan. Some plan to bring down the prices of electricity, an emergency combating of the very high prices. That's what we learned from Ursula von der leyen this week. When she gave a speech
Bloomberg Radio New York
"jonathan farrow" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Else and we're going to talk about that someone else. Miss hagman in just a moment. From New York City this morning, good morning. Some Kelly Ryan and Jonathan farrow futures down 8 or 9 cents of 1% on the S&P. The NASDAQ 100 down around one four percentage point now. We roll over yield to higher by 7 basis points to 87 12 on a ten year and just a bit of news on congresswoman Cheney Tom speaking on The Today Show on NBC saying she's thinking about running for president will make a decision in the coming months. Probably Elon Musk is as well John, can we pause here for a moment, Anne Marie can pause and consider the view in Washington that is 811 days? From the 2024 election, can we just state that the British do this better? I know you like saying that periodically, don't you tell? There is a lot 811. It's the primaries TK. You take so long to select a candidate for each party. That is a good place to start with Andrew Horton, whose expert on this, and of course, will enjoy 2022, 23, and most of 24 is well. And Maria is all about the primaries. Does the Cheney party and I mean vice president Cheney's party? Are they even part of the GOP primary? Not really. I mean, it's a great question. There are a number of candidates that Trump backed that did lose, but overwhelmingly his candidates won. And this is the step we have in our morning brief of the 270 candidates for international federal state, local and political positions, Trump has endorsed since leaving office 216 have won. A number ran unopposed, but only 17 have lost. He is clearly, even though he's not in office, even though he didn't win the 2020 election. He is clearly still the head of this party. And you see a number of candidates show fealty to him to want to make sure they could win, but in her concession speech, Liz Cheney said, she could have done that to secure her political future in Wyoming, but she refused to. Do the Democrats want president Trump to run though? Well, that's a great question because a lot of Democrats would think that if you just have a rematch of 2020, Biden would still win. Well, and the president has indicated as well that he does intend to run again in 2024, but as Tom alluded to, there is a lot of runway until we get to the presidential elections of 2024. What about the midterm elections of 2022? Can we really just talk about whether or not the fate of the Democratic Party has changed at all given the small wins President Biden has been notching over the last several weeks, including the signing of the inflation reduction act yesterday. It's a great question. You know, Jonathan had been talking about this for months, actually saying he thought the timeline was potentially on people's sides in terms of inflation coming down. And they had a little bit of wiggle room and they did have a very productive summer. There was a bipartisan gun legislation. They were able to secure the backing of Congress for Finland and Sweden to join NATO, and then of course you have their agenda. They've been wanting to get through in terms of climate provisions, Medicare provisions, raising of some taxes, although as Jonathan pointed out in the last hour, they're not exactly closing special interest loopholes, but this is something they could go home to their constituents and say, look at all the stuff we actually were able to get done. We were able to get that dumb because we have these slim majorities, voters back in, there's a long list of provisions we've continue on to get done. Imagine a lot of people are going to say, put me back in office, I will work for family leave. And a number of other things that were originally on the close to $10 trillion build back better. And also the other big thing that I think we were talking about every single day was gas prices. It has evaporated from the news because now what you have are gas prices that are pretty average for the everyday American consumer under $4 a gallon. If that continues, this is certainly going to help the Democrats. Down every single day since the middle of June, quite remarkable. We're talking about primaries here, AMH, and we could spend a long time talking about Republican primaries coming up on the horizon next year and beyond. Are we going to have primaries for the Democrats? I think that's the big question coming out of the midterms, whether the president can actually put to bed this idea that he's going to run in the second type for the second time for a second term, because when he says it, and when people talk about it, there's so many people that don't believe it. So two things. One, the president could not come out and say I'm not running, right? Then he would be a lame duck. Potentially he could closer to 2024, but what we are hearing in the reporting is that he plans to run, even though you do have members of his party saying, thank you for beating the former president Trump. Now it's time to pass this on to a new generation. Following the midterms, this is going to be the most important discussion I imagine within the Democratic Party. And it's just briefly anyone in Washington, one of my Manchester United. Any talk? I spoke about it. I'd love to buy a football team in the United Kingdom. No, so far, there is not a I haven't heard any in Washington looking to buy a sports team. There we go. I think it's not European football. Elon Musk with a joke had on Twitter. If he's just tuning in. It's just a joke. I'm thank Manchester United you're welcome. He then said it was just a joke. We've put out an opinion column on Bloomberg. It's the tweet. Manchester United fans are so fed up with their current owners that even a joke bid for Elon Musk sounds like an improvement. How'd you like that, Tom? To think that the stock's up. The stock is up in the pre market by four and a half percent. Look at this. Trying to help us here because most of us, you know, I like to play knowledgeable. I'm dumb as wood on this. John, just as simple as it can. It's the second week of the season. Don't these teams turn it around? They can turn it at rad sun. If you've made the right transfers in the summer transfer window and I think the problem is that people don't think they've made the right transfers in that window. They've still got a few weeks left, which means you might get a panic buy, and for that reason TK, given their performance over the last couple of weeks, a lot of people don't think they can turn it around. It looks like mid table mediocrity based on what we've seen so far. If they're lucky. Anybody don't update on Musk and Twitter, Kaylee, are you up to speed on this John and I aren't? I think there's the debate about whether or not he's going to get content from all the Twitter employees he wants to will look for what the outcome of the trial is in October. It's a saga that is ongoing, but it really just speaks to Elon Musk saying he's going to do things that he wants to do things and then backing out and manipulating markets along the way. John, you asked if anyone in Washington is looking to buy the team. I'm just wondering if anyone in Washington is looking at these tweets and saying, we need to do something to regulate this. It's a publicly listed company and we're just sort of joking about buying it. And of course, if I joke about bike it, no one believes it and the stock doesn't move because I haven't got the money to buy it, but he's potentially got the money to buy something like that. And that's why some people take it seriously. No, no, absolutely. Absolutely, absolutely, absolutely. And if he made, you know, I'm going to get myself going. Okay. If he did a Twitter to be diplomatic about it, maybe the family would say, it's the glazer family, right? Just the case I found. I get the teams mixed. They are in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Is that right, Tom? Yeah, they're on the bradys. The brightest. Okay. Thank you, Tom. Features down 8 tenths of 1% on the S&P in just a moment we'll catch up with my console. In about an hour and 5 minutes, we'll get retail sales in America. From New York. This is Bloomberg. What?
Bloomberg Radio New York
"jonathan farrow" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"The consumer is not as resilient as they've been in the past and more sensitive to prices. Stagflation really induces and it's a precondition for a growth recession. You've also got this fact that the world is changing economic volatility is so much higher now. The market has shifted completely away from inflation concerns to what recession concerns. For most people, it looks and feels like a recession. This is Bloomberg surveillance with Tom Keene, Jonathan farrow, and Lisa romulans. Here comes another fed rate hike from New York City this morning. Good morning, good morning, for our audience worldwide. This is Bloomberg surveillance live on TV and radio alongside Tom keen, and Lisa Bradford, Jonathan farrow, futures positive TK up 9 tenths of 1%. We look for another 75. Yeah, wall earnings coming out right now, Bristol-Myers Squibb, ADP, as well. And John, all that comes down to is it's better than good. I think Mickey chowda will give us wonderful color on this in a moment. You see it with Google Microsoft world coming to an end at what? Four 15 yesterday for 20 and you get to the morning and guess what they're up. I'm not going to get that excited. I'm going to call it a side relief time. I think others are too. Maybe signs of resilience given what we've seen in other names coming into this earnings season. Where's the world? But, you know, I think this wraps around with chairman Powell is going to have to say today, which is, you know, we're getting a long. Are we in a crisis as we try to bring inflation down? And this debate we're having this morning on the show. I think it's just fabulous. It leads to that press conference. There are things that are happening, Lisa, that I imagine this fed wants to see, which is maybe job opening start to come down, hiring intentions adapt, a little bit more demand come out of the labor market. We all wanted to see an adjustment in the housing sector. We see a gasoline prices lower. We tick in boxes and do those issues get bigger in a way that maybe the outcomes are undesirable. The problem is, is that the market goes ahead of the fed so much further than perhaps the fed would like. And at this point, yes, perhaps we're ticking boxes now and perhaps it feels controlled, but it can happen in a somewhat sudden fashion that all of a sudden the market does turn. And all of a sudden, the economy turns and the fed finds itself too tight. How much do they talk about this being a desirable outcome versus a weakening at a time when they're signs that certain aspects of inflation are softening IE Walmart with that retail inventory glut having to price it down. It goes to the question you asked earlier this morning. We've been asking it a few times over the last week or so. How do they acknowledge the weakness we're seeing in this news conference and how does that tears up for September? You know, I think that they're probably going to look at the weakness that we're seeing and they're going to say this is what we need to be seeing but that inflation is still there and that needs to be what we combat. They have to continue with that tone. At what point in this I think what people are going to be gaming out after this fed meeting at what point does the conversation change to how much does the unemployment rate have to rise? How much do the jobless claims have to rise before the fed starts to really talk about the labor market mandate as well? And is it rising when they get to September? Let's want to look for. If you're looking for alphabet, we are higher by 3.7% Microsoft doing well in the pre market as well. Futures higher by 8 tenths of 1% on the S&P 500 on the NASDAQ 100 higher two by 1.4% yields in just a basis point or so two 79 40. The Euro shown a little bit of strength. You are a dollar positive four tenths of 1% and crudely. So back to a 96 handle on WTI. Yeah, that's really been one major market. And I will just note that natural gas prices over in Europe have surged to record highs so that of course is the backdrop as we've been talking about throughout the morning with a weaker Europe, interesting the Euro is rallying a bit. Today, here's what I'm looking at. 10 a.m., we get June pending home sales. This has been one area of absolute devastation if you look at how much the volumes have dropped, plummeted in the home sales transaction data. Yesterday we got new home sales, plunging to the lowest levels going back two years. At what point do we see an ongoing weakening here that is not yet reflected in prices may take a while to go into rents, but highlights how quickly this market is responding to what the fed is doing. 2 p.m. we get the FOMC rate decision followed by two 30 p.m. press conference. We get to speak with so many wonderful guests for the fed special, which will start at one 30 p.m.. Muhammad el Arian, William Dudley, Diane swank, all joining us to really parse through what we should be looking for and really what the fed is trying to say because we have known that some of these commentaries have been more accurate than the market immediate reaction knee jerk reaction, which has tended to lag behind the realization that comes several weeks later. I'll just say that. Earnings do continue also after the bell Qualcomm meta Facebook. I will do this for you, John. And Ford Motor, we have seen a complete sell off. How much has been already priced in. And I think that is really the key job, because we aren't hearing the best news out of these earnings, right? I mean, they're not stellar earnings. There have been a lot of beats that have been below average if you look at historical quarterly earnings period. So at what point are we just seeing a market saying, okay, at least it's not the worst case scenario so we can start buying again. Yeah, Facebook has been an ugly story. That's why Tampa, more than 50% year to date. Brahma, thank you. Bigger channel joins us now. Chief global strategist and asset allocation head at Deutsche Bank. Binky, you're asking an important question. Are we seeing signs in this earnings season of rising corporate risk aversion? What do you see binky? So far, I wouldn't characterize the earnings season as showing sort of widespread or broad based signs of corporate risk aversion. But if you take a sort of wider look as to whether we are going into recession, what I would argue is pretty surely we are doing so, but we're doing so pretty slowly. So I put it as a pretty shortly but slowly. As far as earnings are concerned, we are coming in right now as of yesterday evening. Below average beats, I think you got to keep in mind that S&P 500 earnings almost always beat by about 5%. We are running at about half of that right now and of course that's going to sort of keep changing. But I would say the important thing to keep in mind here, since we are talking about recessions, we are concerned about declines. This is really the first quarter in two years that while the headline number looks fine at 6, 7, 8% growth. A lot of that is just simply coming from energy, which we all know all about from oil prices, energy earnings are actually down for the first time a year on year. Look at it sequentially and seasonally adjusted basis. They're down by good three or four. Okay, what's so important here is you and I could talk for three hours about this and never run out of questions and insights on this. I want to cut to the chase, which is sector analysis over the next three years has to be absolutely critical. How do you choose which sectors to go into? You're at a table with folks land now. He's foaming at the mouth about a need for a week dollar. Somebody else is nuts about foreign exchange. All of this other noise right now. Forget about it. Three years out, how do you choose which sectors win? So I think you have to play the sectors according to your view on where you are in the cycle and where we are basically going. I would argue the probabilities of recession have gone up, and there's a little choice, but to be long. So what's your overweight sector right now? So it would be Staples in the healthcare on the view that we are basically UnitedHealthcare as a drawdown of 2%. Nobody knows that. In a down component, John, it's a Dow component. Remember that. And I did healthcare down 2%. I mean, that's the resilience, right? Yeah. It is, but I think you
Bloomberg Radio New York
"jonathan farrow" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Much more ahead on day 8 Middle East This is Bloomberg The only way to start the morning is with optimism Your jobs recovery was sluggish A lot of people agree on that Bloomberg surveillance with Tom Keene Jonathan farrow and Lisa Abramovich Finally we got some abramowitz gloom to get in there The ultimate south second of my B when Lisa capitulates Bloomberg surveillance Must watch Lisa your data point go Tom you're great Never change We did mornings at 7 eastern on Bloomberg radio and Bloomberg television There are a lot of ways to look at the world right now Interesting that you've got an overweight on Hong Kong And the more of them you can access the better What has to be his strategy Perspective Who's doing school best Clarity How do we get it so that the benefits get to everybody Expertise He seems to have exactly the right combination It's character plus policy Bloomberg radio the Bloomberg business app and Bloomberg radio dot com Bloomberg the world is listening Economics All this doing gloom was out there finding Do you see this as a technical correction investment What are you looking at Give you some sort of compass through this period The Bloomberg surveillance podcast Lots and lots of talk about what the fed should and shouldn't do John Keane Jonathan Ferrell Lisa Abraham Alex and the names that shaped the world's markets We speak with professor schiller of Yale University Bloomberg surveillance Listen to dad Bloomberg dot com the Bloomberg business app or subscribe on Apple podcasts Let's get back into the Middle East markets with our equities expert file So far has in terms of.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"jonathan farrow" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Surveillance with Tom Keene Jonathan farrow and Lisa Abraham always 5 straight weeks of losses in the equity market hello week 6 from New York City this morning good morning good morning for our audience worldwide live on TV and radio alongside Tom Keane and Lisa branded Sam Jonathan farrow equity futures TK down another 1.9% That's where they're moving a bit is not coming yet Well we can say across three hours here with a pre show preparation and starting surveillance this morning John It's a situation that deteriorates We're going to get out to a 34 vix in a moment And we're looking for a bit in John just as one indication out there Bitcoin under 33,000 joins a party A big move is that big moves in the equity market and in foreign exchange as well as some the dollar index The strongest since 2002 this is big stuff We are very dollar centric here folks And by that I mean foreign exchange centric with Turkish lira blowing through 15 to 1502 John the immovable forces we talked to Michael pervis in a moment is the ten year yield 3.18% Didn't we get through 3% A cup of coffee ago Three 20 Now Tom overnight in this session Big move on a ten year the 5 year the highest since 2008 bramo we're pushing ahead to the big one on the schedule this week is CPI this Wednesday And how much we get that mechanical peak in inflation And then looking forward is that going to be something that we see continuing to decelerate this idea that perhaps the fed will get a reprieve from that We're talking about the idea of risk not stemming from the fed It is stemming from supply chains out of China It is stemming from oil prices that are surging having to do with what's going on in Ukraine And that I think is very hard for the markets to deal with which is the reason that we're getting this tightening kind of ramification of volatility The line from Morgan Stanley Lisa I know this resonates with you too avoiding a recession is our base case but markets will have to confront the rising probability of one regardless And how do you do that after a market has been benumbed by a Federal Reserve for decades basically saying we've got your back Suddenly not having their back and all these traders have to readjust to suddenly whipsaw action does not have to do with what a number of people say at Washington The fed put has been well and truly retired hasn't it given what Lisa just laid out there for us We're going to talk to Michael perverse purpose about this about you know what I guess it's a new regime John And to me there's a repricing going on You put an historical context Is it a bear market Yes certainly as you mentioned John on Friday many stocks just absolutely hammered But you look at the indices and you say well where is the immediate catharsis that we really have we seen catharsis yet John I don't think so Can we make the case that the worst of this is done At least I'd look to credit What's been interested in about credit is yes there's been damage done there But spreads haven't blown out in a massive way like we might have seen maybe a couple of years ago and that's intriguing from my perspective and from others too It's something I focus on every morning when I come in I look at spreads on both investment grade and high yield in the U.S. to gauge exactly that Do we start to price and credit risk How do we get credit risk when you get well capitalized companies that don't have near term maturities The next maturity wall isn't until 2025 So at that point it's credit even reflective of real risk If companies don't have to borrow money and borrowing costs rise does it matter That's the question A lot of people in fixed income are asking right now We're going to return to that a little bit later Futures right now on the S&P and on the NASDAQ into negative territory by 2.3% on the NASDAQ 100 on the S&P down by 1.8 Yields are higher on a ten year three 18 In this session today we had a little look at three 20 yields are higher by 5 basis points Foreign exchange the dollar the strongest going all the way back to 2002 So Euro dollar negative just a ten to 1% at one O 5 So many questions this morning including are we there yet Have we seen catharsis When do we get the full washout We will be talking about that with an incredible roster of surveillance guests Deutsche Bank's George sir velos joining us talking about the Euro a possible strength there which is interesting given the fact that it has been a one way trade in dollar and the Euro has absolutely broken down U.S. Secretary of the Treasury is going to be joining us Ottawa ariyama I am very interested to hear about what the U.S. is next steps are in terms of additional sanctions towards Russia but also with respect to China given the legacy tariffs there And Matt dizak of the Merrill Lynch and Bank of America private bank talking about how much is already priced in with respect to treasury yields Okay let's say that that's the case but is there a non linear move from three and a half percent or three and a quarter percent on the ten year to 4% At 8 a.m. we get Atlanta fed president Rafael bostic joining us on Bloomberg television with our own Michael McKee talking about possibly some of the guidance and frankly I want to know about what they think about the market's reaction to fed chair Powell's press conference last week And at 2 p.m. meta Facebook is opening its first physical store the metastore in burlingame California You can go and live in a universe that's far more certain and less valid than the one that we currently live in The reason why I'm actually interested It's not exactly that It's because the shares are down nearly 40% NASDAQ shares down more than 20% year to date Where does the growth come from John For these growth names given how much has already been priced in and given what we're seeing in China and frankly what a lot of people are saying is going to be a global growth slowdown And the problem is and Lisa thank you is that Tom some of these names are actually still generating decent growth And yet they're being absolutely pummeled in the stock market Well this is important And I think there's a lot of growth out there and you wonder what do you do And we're not going to give investment advice here John But to your point again on Friday there seem to be two markets Those of profit surviving holding on and a lot of others just absolutely powdered John before we get to our wonderful guest Bloomberg dollar index since February 24th the invasion of Iraq up 6.7% the call of the year so far is David fok Landau Michael perverse is going to join us now Some founder and CEO of tour back in capital advisers Michael can you make the case for the end of multiple rewriting in this equity market I think by my math John I think we've given up about three and a half P points this year to date off those lifetime highs back at the end of last year By buying masses we're going to sort of call it a three to 4% maybe three to 5% ten year yield By my math we get to another one to possibly two PE points And at that point I think we're really done I think my bigger question though is that the cross asset volatility conditions right now are extraordinarily robust and dynamic And I think they're so you guys were talking about these shocks from supply chains and some shocks from oil which the fed has limited ability to address And I think one of the things that's going to help is only going to reinforce this very high rate volatility It's not just rates at three volatility And if the cross volatility surface is that high I just wondered if there's so much dust kicked up in the air and there's so much uncertainty about what the risk free rate is going to be over the next period of.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"jonathan farrow" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Bloomberg Savannah's with Tom Keane Lisa Roberts and Jonathan farrow futures unchanged on the S&P and on the NASDAQ two Here's a call from Oppenheimer Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan upgraded even of the economy were to enter a recession we believe that the banking industry would handle it better than any recession in history We're not economists but let's talk about it But this is unlikely to go straight from labor shortages to recession given the large pullback in the stocks and modestly higher estimates the average bank relative PE multiple is now down to 52% So they're looking for some real upside here to those two names tongue And all that up because they're very very constructive on the markets They have been they participate in this bull market But John again it goes to the people adapt Companies adapt central banks adapt They're looking for 30% upside from here I will just say that the market is not picked up on high yields translating as better for bank stocks That's just not been a story over the last few months In fact year to date we've seen this massive move in yields and banks just haven't participated Slot it in is a two hour conversation that we can have this morning with Kenneth rogoff He's Professor of economics at Harvard He is the former IMF chief economist It's far far more than that Truly one of our thinkers of this moment we're in I mentioned professor rogoff to get a gopinath when I was at the IMF A number of weeks ago about this moment with foreign exchange and linking it into our greater global economy and of course our central banks Ken thank you so much for joining surveillance This morning Ken I want to go to a quote from 20 years ago I remember this paper the Carnegie Mellon the freshwater school Bennett McCollum and the team the once dominant ISL M framework from macroeconomic analysis has been sharply criticized excellent of it and the rest of it Nevertheless most undergraduate macroeconomics textbooks continue to feature IS LM models can take us from John hicks 1939 through what you and I were weaned on to where we are now Does any Central Bank have a convection a conventional theory in 2022 Well they still teach I saw them analysis and modern versions of it But central banks of course were not expecting this inflation They hadn't seen inflation for a long time They didn't know what would cause it They had some thoughts And I think if you're honest about the academic literature there was tremendous uncertainty about the Phillips curve about the long run neutral rate of interest So there's just massive uncertainty and then you get hit by the pandemic and now the war in Ukraine and the uncertainty is bigger than ever It was so important here folks and I speak of project syndicate I can't say enough as a font of wisdom led by Kenneth rogoff the laureate Michael Spence and Steve roach many many others but can rog you're right in your assay there on the synchronized global economy How synchronized are we How synchronized is America with China and with Europe Well I mean I think the risks of having a perfect storm where Europe is in recession because of the war China is in recession because of a failed COVID lockdown policy in the United States because the fed Titans too much too fast or however we judge it in response to inflation And that's all feed on each other I mean if China has a supply recession which is really what we're talking about that's going to feed inflation It's going to hurt demand in Europe Obviously if the United States goes into recession it hits financial markets all over the world I would say the risks have risen palpably that this might happen We could get things could work out well I said there's a lot of uncertainty but it's not hard to see all of these risks I mean I'd met in China It's hard to see what's going on but I feel they might already be bordering on recession So Ken do you think that already the risk has gotten too much the fed moving too far too fast at a time when a significant proportion of those on Wall Street think it's the opposite that perhaps they're poised to be overly dovish and not respond enough to inflation that surprises again and again to the upside Well I don't think we'll know for a while what they're going to do because they can raise interest rates a lot before they raise them too much I mean the idea at this well I think the idea that just to 3% would be enough is really unlikely I think they're going to have to raise interest rates to four or 5% to bring inflation down to two and a half or 3% And I don't know if that is something they're going to decide to do I'm not even saying that's something they should do We really have to see what's going on How deep the recession is They've dug a hole or to be precise the huge stimulus and march And I think a lot of the pressures on the fat and uncertainty from academics and research has dug a hole And it's not easy to get out of I mean there's no pretty picture here Ken let's sit on that for a minute but you think that in order to get down to a two and a half or 2% inflation rate they would have to raise rates four or 5% You don't know whether they should do that When will we know whether they should be opting for getting back down to that kind of target at some point in the next few years Well I mean you know it depends on what's going on what the costs are They could get lucky and some of the inflation turns out to be transitory enough so that they get a gentle landing It is not impossible but clearly a lot of things still that could go wrong escalation in Europe China getting worse and it's irrational COVID lockdowns And there's just a lot of uncertainty so I'm not going to say I know exactly what needs to be done but it's clear that things are way out of control Can rogoff you are part of our global interior confidence in the dollar from mundell Fleming to Jacob frankel to your work Maurice felt in the rest and on Rudy dornbush and we come to a new point is the dollar study of value now or is it secondary to what it used to be Oh I think the dollars more powerful than it ever was And yes Central Bank reserves have been diversified a bit although a lot into currencies that are sort of pegging against the dollar The dollar is dominant in trade and boy saying it's dominant in financial markets that's dominant and all kinds of transactions it's surprising I think it's actually by many measures more dominant than it was in the 50s when it was supposed to be going to currency Well in the 50s and let me digress then Ken this is so important on Germany right now in Europe is Germany held back by a memory of atmar issing economics and such I mean is Germany reticent with the war and Ukraine from another time and place is the dollar from another time and place I'm not quite sure what you're asking Tom I mean are you asking is Germany not moving more aggressively and Ukraine because it's concerned about deficits I don't think so I think it's much more the concern about escalation how much do you push Putin to push him over a cliff I think that's actually a very tough call and the Germans don't see it the same way that the American administration does Yeah I'm sorry my question there wasn't all that clear I fail I failed Ken when the Red Sox are in last place So I'm failing Right now Ken on Germany then in the Euro the challenge for Christine Lagarde given what I'm going to call the German reticence How difficult a moment is this for the politician Lagarde.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"jonathan farrow" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"More ahead on this daybreak Middle East This has been that When will you be able to go to a meeting where nobody smells like hand sanitizer who knows but we can give you the latest business and financial news Fragrance free Plus tease out some of what you just said Are there tools in the toolbox for the fed Does that point to the need for continued monetary support Bloomberg radio the Bloomberg business app and Bloomberg radio dot com You do realize the mark that this is having on a younger generation Bloomberg the world is listening Start your market day with Bloomberg surveillance The bond market it's a really interesting soup game Jonathan farrow and Lisa Abramovich Isn't your base case the worst case scenario Who says finance can't be fun Who's it to zoo guys Which one of us Bloomberg's surveillance must listen must watch I think they made a great decision separated us both We did mornings at 7 eastern on Bloomberg radio and Bloomberg television When you reorganize and declutter we're probably the first thing you decide to keep Is there any serious contemplation of sanctions against China detailed financial and business reporting Tell us more about your customers and how they're doing now Expert analysis You're basically just changing a $5 bill into 5 ones Definitely essential Looking at high yield where does that take you these days Bloomberg radio the Bloomberg business app and Bloomberg radio dot com Bloomberg the world is listening The composer Joseph Haydn famously said I listened more than I studied It sounds like a law school hypothetical Here in Bloomberg it's the same thing Do you maintain that low rate regime Can you see our two years How do you build a strategy with that eventuality in mind Experts information news The push sets up a potential fight What do we know about how it will go public Bloomberg radio the Bloomberg business app and Bloomberg radio dot com Bloomberg the world is listening.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"jonathan farrow" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"All right thanks you just heard our simulcast on TV and radio talking this Abramovich and Jonathan farrow that fed me second fed meeting of the year where you all been looking forward to it And we got that march rate increase as expected I think what's interesting is what they have talked about in terms of growth here Jay Powell talk about what he thought was a strong growth forecast but also moving up their inflationary expectations but longer term the expectation is inflation comes down again I've been tracking the markets here Tim and Charlie broke down the numbers But it looks like the equity market based on my calculations and just as the news of the fed announcement was coming out at two 15 Wall Street time We are higher in terms of where stocks were prior to that announcement So we've definitely seen a bounce back after initial sell off And it looks like that tenure has settled down to where it was prior to the fed news The two year the shorter end of the yield curve Close to where it was a little bit higher Well let's go back to the equity market because I think that this was a really important point for at least equity investors when Powell said quote the economy is very strong and well positioned to handle tighter monetary policy It was at that point that equity started moving high recording to our Bloomberg live blog team when it comes to the what the FOMC chair was saying and what markets we're doing because it was pretty remarkable as soon as the statement came out We saw a real sell off in equities Yeah we did initially but we've seen the bounce back And if you look at the yield curve we saw the yield curve between 5 and ten years invert after the FOMC decision right after it And the 5 to 30 year yield curve just a little bit about 30 minutes ago The curve extends its flattening to under 25 basis points So this is what's key We're watching that That inversion especially when it comes to two and ten and what it tells us about the potential for a recession And so we've talked about that in particular Right now though yields like we said kind of staying where they were the bid up to it but down from some of the spikes we saw right after that fed decision Okay so the fed raising interest rates by a quarter percentage point signaling hikes at all 6 remaining meetings this year launching a campaign to tackle the fastest inflation in four decades We got the dot plot The median projection was for the target rate to end 2022 at about 1.9% kind of in line with bets but then rise caroled a 2.8% in 2023 Yeah this is what's kind of interesting in our live blog on the fed really pointed this out They're like wow look at that inflation forecast 4.3% from the end of this year A major overshoot Is that transitory Well that's the question They still have it coming down to 2.3% in 2024 It's a few years from now but that's the expectation that it writes itself And then when it comes to growth I mean back in the December forecast they were looking at more like 4% for this year Now it's down to 2.8% So what does it mean in real terms We just heard from our TV colleagues that do these numbers really add up does it make sense So this is what we're all going to have to be guessing and maybe waiting for the next fed meeting but also the jobs report because higher rates are probably going to mean a higher unemployment rate So what is the appetite for Jay Powell the fed when it comes to that Well that next fed meeting is happening on May 4th So that's what we have to look forward to then Hey let's not bring in Lizzie Ann Saunders chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab She joins us on the phone from Naples Florida What is your big takeaways after watching fed share pal just now for the last hour and a half Yeah so obviously the move they made with raising rates is not at all a surprise I think it was the relatively optimistic assessment He gave of the economy in light of what has been growing concerns about recession now We have to keep in mind that the fed broadly fed shares specifically haven't necessarily been the best forecasters of recessions are often sort of whistling past the proverbial graveyard And so but I think that is probably the key takeaway as he doesn't see recession risk is particularly high at this point I mean Liz do you find first of all great to have you here And you and I have talked about lots of market cycles over the past many years And I do wonder how you see this one right You've seen strains and stresses in the system I think going back to the you know we talk about the financial crisis How do you see this market cycle How would you describe it I think it's different in so many ways not least being what interestingly is no longer front page news which is the virus And that's just really turned topsy turvy Any traditional analysis of what the business cycle looks like the fact that most of what we're seeing in the economy not least being inflation is much more typical of a late cycle phenomenon yet if you were to just look at the calendar relative to when we went into the COVID recession you would think we would be earlier in the cycle We also know that the fed is now launched off to zero bound at a point where inflation is raging and growth expectations for the first quarter are quite low And the yield curve is quite flat So the background conditions for the fed to start raising interest rates this is not what you typically see Now whether or not that means there's a greater chance of the so called policy mistake I think it's easier to.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"jonathan farrow" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"The only way to start the morning is with optimism The jobs recovery was sluggish A lot of people agree on that Bloomberg surveillance with Tom Keene Jonathan farrow and Lisa Romero Finally we got some Abramovich gloom to get in there The ultimate south signal might be At least the capitulates Bloomberg surveillance and must watch Lisa your data point go Tom you're great Never change We see mornings at 7 eastern on Bloomberg radio and Bloomberg television There are a lot of ways to look at the world right now Interesting that you've got an overweight on Hong Kong And the more of them you can access the better What has to be his strategy perspective Who's doing school best Clarity How do we get it so that the benefits get to everybody Expertise He seems to have exactly the right combination It's character plus policy Bloomberg radio the Bloomberg business app and Bloomberg radio dot com Bloomberg the world is listening Breaking news first Or in Ukraine The U.S. says Russia has asked China for military equipment to support its invasion The European Union is set to impose more sanctions on Russia Imports of some steel and iron products were desperate flight of people in Ukraine to try and escape the current spiking gas prices largely to fall to Vladimir Putin For the latest headlines and the effect on the markets Stay with Bloomberg radio the Bloomberg business app and Bloomberg radio dot com I.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"jonathan farrow" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Growth as well It doesn't need to be inflationary I'm not worried about revenue There's certainly plenty of demand out there pretty much across the board The issue is can that demand be fulfilled This is Bloomberg surveillance with Tom Keene Jonathan farrow and Lisa Abramovich A bit of risk aversion this Wednesday from New York City for our audience worldwide Good morning good morning This is Bloomberg surveillance live on TV and radio alongside Tom Keane and Lisa brahmin I'm Jonathan Ferro This Wednesday futures negative 53 we're down on the S&P 1.2% Tom keen on the NASDAQ which M1 point four We are down 1.4% It's moving out there as well And John as you said in the last hour you go to the currency dynamics as well What about the thundering silence of the weak dollar crew I mean it is stunning how that is stopped Strong dollar this morning Tom risk aversion the thread of higher yields is pretty clear isn't it You buy the green pack You find the U.S. dollar dollar index 90 through 94 ton We're positive four tenths of 1% there Right And the CDS market the credit default swap market some of those indicators showing attention Yes it folds into Washington As well John our guests coming up here really is pushed against weak dollar for months and months and months Margaret McCormack looks like a genius Looking forward to that Is it fair to say the epicenter of all of this is energy The percent are certainly natural gas in particular And when you take a look at the United Kingdom that's even more the epicenter where you see prices absolutely surging But there's a bigger story here And that is the transition of an economy at a time of a perfect storm I mean how many factors do we talk about Supply chain disruptions A pandemic And then you deal with the fact that we're trying to transition to greener energy You put them all together and it's a mess Do you remember the hopes of September Lisa Yes do you have a good fun What happened to September It turned into October And now we're talking about maybe it's not going to come She won 22 Well are we even though do people expect her to be a sort of moment where we realize yeah we're all able to go travel again I think that those hopes are fading And I think that's what we're feeling And that's just an idea of the conversation right now And here's the setup this Wednesday Let's put through the price section Equity futures are negative for the lower The S&P 500 is lighter by about 1.2% The NASDAQ is down 200 We're negative 1.4% into the bond market Given what is taking place in the equity market in the bond market right now they're not big moves rubber basis point of two on ten One 54 32 ton I walked in and was surprised I'm sorry I think I saw one 55 tenure They're not big moves but the vectors in the right direction It's the system Correlation It's persistent Yields have been moving higher off the lows of early August from one to 58 through one 54 and threatening to go even higher from here The FX market talked a little bit about that dollar strength and Lisa you wrote down one 1540 negative a half of 1% And to me the story of the yields and the story of the dollar go very much together the idea that here you have a risk off mood bonds are not a haven Why Because what is the threshold for the fed to start tapering the $120 billion of monthly bond purchases That threshold has gotten a lot lower 8 15 a.m. we get U.S. September 80 P employment change The expectation is for it to indicate perhaps a bit of a better jobs report on Friday However of course this is not necessarily that negative Again what is the threshold for the Federal Reserve A lot of people are saying that the bar has been lowered They want to stop buying bonds even if the economy is showing some strains So at 11 a.m. President Biden is hosting a meeting with business leaders including the CEOs of Bank of America and Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan to talk about the debt ceiling expect a lot of catastrophic discussion about the potential risks of defaulting does this matter to anyone You do see that the T Bill yields have been rising however still not indicating the same kind of distress that we saw throughout markets back in 2011 And today is the second day of the Bloomberg invest conference You've got a host of great speakers including Michael or Getty of Ares as well as Greg Johnson of Bridgewater and highs of Wellington management The interesting thing to me John has been what they have been saying about China The world's second biggest economy slowing down increasing regulatory risk they do not want to own it And I think that this is important The idea that Don Fitzpatrick of Soros came out and said we are not putting money into China right now She is not alone People rethinking their strategies at a time when they're looking for diversification but not at the risk of regulatory uncertainty to this degree Always brilliant here from Greg Jensen British water really looking forward to that Lisa thank you so much A classic risk of setup in G ten in foreign exchange looks like this Outperforming the yen and the Swiss sea That's why you've got today underperforming the commodity currencies The likes of the RC the likes of Norway that's also what you have today We need to talk about foreign exchange Your backdrop this morning a stronger dollar Mark McCormick a TV securities the global head of FX strategy joins us right now Mark a story of performance over narratives your line start there unpack that for me Yeah it's a great question because I think what we have is there's a lot of narratives There's narratives around real rates about central banks around stagflation reflation all these dynamics related to this kind of transition period we're going through as well And I think what the performance tells us is that currencies are respecting mean reversion They're trading off of mean reversion based strategies valuation positioning these things that are really kind of technical they sit behind the scenes but they're just not really sexy macro stories It's not really about the fed It's not really about what's going on in some of these global dynamics But the point is if you're trading FX a core strategy that focus on mean reversion plus growth plus terms of trade and plus the risk aversion dynamics we see is really the combination that's done great through this declaration period or this stagflation narrative through the summer So I think that's a big part of it is again thinking about what's driving FX in terms of performance and what's rewarding currencies versus what's being discussed as a narrative If there is an interest rate dynamic and then you go over to a flow analysis and Mark you've nailed this over the last year with dollar resilience Are we near big figure jump conditions in the major pairs I don't we are but we're also not This is where the performance analysis comes in The question is is does the move in these currencies reflect a risk premium Or are they moving with fundamentals And the flow side is really kind of what drive us away from fundamentals So when you think about Euro it does look it's screaming very cheap right now in terms of positioning short term valuation But again the flows can push us maybe to one 1450 one 15 But again there's not a dynamic here that we've seen Euro move lower at this magnitude where it's kind of validated by the move in the relationship it has to other macro drivers So that's where again the flow dynamics are important But if you look at the weakness in the end it is calibrated quite well with the weakness that we've seen or the relationship we have across yield curves and inflation dynamics in terms of trade shock that we're dealing with now So dollar yen moving higher is a bit of a more sticky trade relative to what we've seen in the Euro at least in the very short run How damaging is the strong dollar right now for emerging market currencies considering that this is exactly what they do not want to see A higher inflationary premium in developed markets certainly in the rates markets Right across the board is challenging and you can see it's probably challenging because if you look at the relationship of Euro in revenue we should remedy should be trading at 6 80 That's your historical correlation over a running couple of years So you can see that a lot of it is managed A lot of it is kind of coming through back in G ten It's probably running through gold prices as well You know some of these more liquid currencies You can see Koreas Been sold off quite aggressively So yeah I do think a big part of the relationship with EM is EM as a whole is going to underperform as markets are repricing the fed the real pricing rail rates They're dealing with stagflation But there are winners on a relative basis in EM If you think about central banks that are hiking if you look at growth stories that are generally okay if you look at the terms of trade shock and who wins the miters and the exporters and the.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"jonathan farrow" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Alongside Lisa Promise. And Katie? Lance. I'm Jonathan Farrow. Some came back this in the capital data record market. Looks like this on the S and P basically unchanged advance in a couple of points by 0.4% into the bond market with your time in the curves steeper four basis points to 1 36 64. Little bit of feedback from the audience. Lisa Interesting how Pharaoh disappears and Thomas at work. Now Tom has gone and Pharaoh is working. Could it be That one and the same. I mean, it is true, and I put this out on Twitter. We have not been seen in the same room or Yeah, Who knows? I wondered the same thing. Maybe I just play split personality on the program and Run into the other room. You look really similar. So impression. I could see just you know, we should share what Katie said when she sat in the big chair earlier this morning. I have no idea what you're talking different. Kind of fit, wasn't it? Kaylie Euro dollar 1 18 61 negative Attention throw us under the bus. 60 would do such a thing Crude down about a dollar and change too. $68.03 were down by 1.8% are moving on guys and not getting in trouble. And I'm Green joins us now have the Kennedy school senior fellow make and it's been a while, but a story hasn't changed. In fact, the only thing I can think of that has changed is that we were all waiting for September. Now, seemingly, we're all waiting for 2022. What's your take on things? Yeah, I think that's right. I mean, the big question remains whether there's going to be inflation and it sustained inflation or not, And that question hasn't been remotely answered. There are data points supporting both sides of that story. We were all hoping a couple months ago that come September, kids will go back to school. We'd all go back to the office events would happen in person again. We'd be traveling again and that that's clearly not happening so Unfortunately, I think we're going to have to wait a bit longer and ride out this Delta variant wave to see what the fundamentals really look like Megan. We spent the last couple of weeks to having this discussion with economists who have all basically said. Stress all. Perhaps the consensus is that this is a recovery delayed and not derailed. But Peter Chair raised an important question about 10 minutes ago on this program as to whether the demand right now and the job openings in America, which is sky high. Do stay that way into next year. And the longer they're left unfilled that perhaps they do start to drift away and disappear altogether. Malcolm, You're an economist. What would you take be on that particular deliberate the moment. Yes. Look, I I think that it depends entirely on the viruses. All things have for the past year and a half. But I don't see us going back to shutting down the economy the same way we had before, in which case demand shouldn't win as significantly as some people fear. I think that much bigger concern is the supply constraint on workers. We saw that in the last jobs report. A lot of workers didn't want to go out and get jobs because they were concerned about the Delta variants. And that fit through into wage increases. What aren't which aren't necessarily a bad thing, but they do become a concern if they turn into a wage price spiral. I don't think that's happening yet. Average hourly earnings were a pretty significantly but average weekly earnings were down a bit because ours have cuts. You need both. Earnings and hours to increase for to maybe start to creep into a wage price spiral. That being said companies don't have the same pricing power that they used to. Workers don't have the same power that they used to negotiating power for wages. And so I just don't see that creeping in. Megan, How do you view the recent slowdown? The recent his appointments that we've seen in economic data is this simply a result of the delta vary it and we'll see renewed growth. Later on in the year, renewed momentum or is this something different? As Pete Sheer was talking about? Look. So from the very start of this pandemic. I've suggested the recovery might look like a Nike swoosh with a zigzag on the on the end of it, and I think we're seeing a bit of that zigzag like we did. Previously was shut downs and reopening. So I think a big piece of it is the delta variant. But I've also thought we'd get this bounce back and then a long, hard slog, and I think that might be creeping in. As well. So we've had kind of the brunt of the bounce back. We might get a bit more as we end up on the other side of this variant. We've But of course, new variants might come out as well. So I think it's a bit of both not to give you a typical economists who can video well, But then there's this other question about the supply chain disruptions which you mentioned in one of the biggest port operators came out. Over the weekend and said, Actually, the problem is, there's just too much consumption. People just are buying too much stuff, and that's fueled by the stimulus checks they've gotten. Do you think that that ultimately will be the solution that people will have to buy less stuff? Which is exactly what the economy Does not necessarily want or certainly nations do not want to see because they want this momentum. I don't think that's the concern. Actually, I think when demand is there then Cos you tend to invest and ramp up the supply chains, So I think that's much more likely than that. Consumers have to just Can seem left less..
Bloomberg Radio New York
"jonathan farrow" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Mrs and Verizon's entire media division. A unit, which also includes tech crunch could fetch as much as $5 billion. Verizon wants to focus on wireless and building out its five G network. Gina's her veddy Bloomberg radio Every week day Matt Miller and polls Weenie ask a few of the top market makers and analysts for their opinions. And while it's polite to listen to everyone, does it make sense that Tesla is worth $660 billion in market cap is more productive to listen to. The best. What's the data that you guys really look at? Bloomberg Markets weekday mornings at 10 Eastern? What do you expect from Jerome Powell on Bloomberg Radio? The Bloomberg business happened. Bloomberg radio com Bluebeard, the world is listening. When we say Bloomberg brings you the latest financial and business news anywhere we've actually given the matter quite a bit of thought, Let's get now to a guest joining us from Bangkok. She joins us on the phone from the Hudson Valley Bloomberg Radio the Bloomberg business have in Bloomberg radio Com. What is that moral leadership look like to you? At number the world is listening. Broadcasting 24 hours a day at Bloomberg, calm on the Bloomberg business after It's pretty simple to recognize that we're in the midst of a boom here in the U. S economy is very resilient, and now it's working with private sector and the public sector. Whether you're growing up 9% of whether you're growing at 6% is facing the labor market. I think it's going to remain very strong for at least the next two quarters. Question is How long is transit? Great? Is it a couple of months? Is it a year or 18 months? It's certainly not long term until the tax changes happened. You ignore them. But the reality is the markets are ignoring this'd is Bloomberg Surveillance with Tom Keene, Jonathan Ferrell and Lisa Graham awaits. Good morning, everyone. Jonathan Farrow, Lisa. Tell.