17 Burst results for "Jonathan Bernstein"
"jonathan bernstein" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Bar with more on what's going on around the world, Michael Thank you. Karen Secretary of State Antony Blinken is heading to Egypt and Jordan as he presses ahead. With a diplomatic mission aimed at shoring up cease fire between Israel and Hamas is in Cairo right now, blinking has vowed to rally international support to rebuild the destruction in hard hit Gaza. The Senate voted never lied to confirm Kristen Clark, President Joe Biden's picked to run the Justice Department's civil rights division. Clark becomes a top member of attorney General Mary Garlands leadership team in the NBA playoffs. The Nets down the Celtics won 31 Oh, wait to take a two games to nothing lead in that series in major league baseball. The Yankees lost, the Mets won along with the Giants. Red Sox, Nationals, Orioles and A's all lost global news 24 hours a day on here and on Bloomberg quick tank powered by more than 2700, journalists and analysts and more than 120 countries on Michael Barb, this is Bloomberg. The following commentaries from Bloomberg opinion. 60 votes. I'm Jonathan Bernstein, a columnist for Bloomberg opinion. When I see claims that there haven't been any filibuster so far this year, I get cranky because it couldn't be further from the truth, which is that everything is still a bustard. In the Senate monitor. Filibusters were essentially threats to indefinitely delay action. They're invisible, especially when they're successful. Most winning filibusters kill bills before they're even considered. They don't give a closer vote. They don't get extended speeches, they just die. This kind of filibuster didn't exist 75 years ago, it was still rare 50 years ago. But since 29 it is applied to absolutely everything indeed, it's been so thoroughly institutionalized. That Senate practice just assumes that everything is filibustered. The most obvious example being the once unheard of, but now standard agreement that amendments to bills must reach a 60 vote threshold to be adopted. Universal filibuster the 60 vote Senate is the overwhelming fact of legislative process in that chamber right now, no filibusters. There's nothing but filibusters. I'm Jonathan Bernstein..
"jonathan bernstein" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Rumored radio. Com Base is balance of power. With David Western Coming up on balance of power. What Democrats and Republicans do today may determine who controls the House and the Senate after midterm elections next year. Jonathan Bernstein of Bloomberg Opinion says What drives the elections may just be changing. But first we get a market check from Charlie. Thank you very much. David West, unhappy Tuesday, fast moving markets right to the numbers will get with the Y in just a moment here as somebody down now by 20. Lower by 5/10 of 1% Technology is where we're seeing the real selling today. The NASDAQ 100 Index down 1.4% NASDAQ composite index Down 1.7% Down 225 points The Dow has fallen 80 points lower now by 3/10 of 1%. So a down day for the Dow, the S and P and NASDAQ Technology shares, leading a decline in stocks on concern that valuations have gotten out of hand. Made higher bond yields and bets on pastor inflation right now, the 10 year Yield 1.35% gold down 2/10 of 1%, 18 05, Beyonce and West Texas intermediate crude oil. Advancing by 1/10 of 1% 61 76 cm's consumer confidence is up even with discouraging data on the labor market. And with that story years, Bloomberg's mini down Jude I stop broke. This moderated and jobless claims continue to run it historic levels. Nonetheless, the conference board's consumer confidence and expert February reached the three month Hi David suggest Americans are gaining some faith in the economy progresses. Copa 19 vaccines rollout Still harbor concerned about.
"jonathan bernstein" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Take his number. 11 Trio Now Global News Update. White House physician, Dr Sean Conley says President Trump is doing very well. He's being treated at Walter Reed Medical Center in Bethesda, Maryland, at a Saturday morning briefing. The president's medical team says he's experiencing a mild cough, nasal congestion and fatigue but that all of those symptoms are improving. Doctors at he's been fever free for the last 24 hours, is breathing easily and is not on oxygen, a resupply mission to the international space station now on its way after a successful liftoff from a Virginia launchpad. Cygnus spacecraft will rendezvous with the On Sunday. A space X launch is scrubbed seconds before liftoff. The Falcon nine Rocket was to carry a U. S. Air Force GPS satellite into space. The release of a new James Bond movie is being pushed back because of the Corona virus pandemic. No time to die, will not hit theaters until April 2nd. That's the latest I'm Cameron Fairchild. You're listening to Bloomberg opinion on Bloomberg Radio. I'm June girl. So our next guest Bloomberg OPINION column. This Jonathan Bernstein made a prediction back in October of 2017 that it was very likely that the 2020 elections would produce a unified government. That is when one party controls the White House and both houses of Congress. So, Jonathan, we're here about a month away from the November elections. Has your forecast about unified government looking looking OK, Right now, it looks like Joe Biden wins them is a pretty good chance. The Democrats will write over the majority in the Senate and almost a certainty. If Biden wins that they'll wind up with a majority in the house. So that looks pretty good. However, if Trump wins He almost certainly hold the majority in the Senate, but he won't have the house so that you have my garment looks unlikely If Trump wins. On the other hand, it's more likely that Biden window of great mouth, so we'll see how it go. Let's talk about the house first, because you write that even a significant late surge for Trump and Republicans would not be enough to get them to 218 House seats. It really doesn't look like it right now. If you look at the way the cook political report, which is sort of one of the premier rating services, people, experts who know you have the details, race by race right now. They think that if Democrats lose all the toss up there 20 situations that they call toss up. Democrats would still retain absolute majority in the House. And in fact, if you ever lose all the concept that actually gained a few teeth because there's a few Republican seat currently that are now lean or likely Democrat. So you know if it's looking like Democrats are going to probably pick up a few seats in the house, with perhaps upside of picking up, you know, over 10 ft, when we were discussing the possibility of Democrats controlling the Senate Some time ago. It was said that it would be an uphill battle for Democrats to win the Senate back. What about now? Well, you know, the Democrats have an uphill battle this time because Republicans have a 53 to 47 majority Plus the Alabama seat held by Democrat Jones has always been assumed to be ah short term thing that Republicans will regain that Alabama's a very Republican state. So that would be 50. For that would need Democrats would need to pick up four seat even if Biden wind and then Vice president to be Harris would be the deciding vote. But it's looking a lot better for Democrats. They are now probably going to pick up the Arizona seat in the Colorado City were incumbent Republicans seems to be in big trouble, and then we have a good fighting chance in four or five other seats and possibilities and maybe three, or 45 or six others where it's possible that if there's a strong search for the Democrats at the end that they could pick up quite a few Could Democrats chances in the Senate shift a great deal If Trump is elected president, and why Yeah, I mean, it would definitely help Republicans. If Trump is elected, it will help the Romans even more. If Trump was elected with a plurality vote. Remember, he may be his best chance of winning the presidency, winning a second term, maybe two in the electoral college despite losing the overall vote, which you know is how the rules of the game work for presidency but doesn't really help Republicans, perhaps lower down the ballot. If there's more democratic, both out their overall, you know, the truth is that over time Incumbency advantage and all other Factors for how something wouldn't have gotten much less important, and partisanship has gotten more and more important. We're seeing more and more straight ticket voting, so it's possible that we'll have a few teeth that go one way for the presidency and another way her Senate, but it's increasingly rare for that to happen. How many seats to the Democrats have to get in the Senate to do away with the filibuster? That a big question if you can do it by majority vote the way that the Democrats in 2013 and Republicans 2017 changed the rules of the centre of practices the Senate by majority about the nuclear option, But if it's a 50 50 Senate, with Democrats having the presidency, that means that they have to count on the most moderate Democrats. Probably don't mention of West Virginia vote to do something that would probably get a pretty big negative reaction. So you know realistically, it's a factor of two things. How urgent is the need to do something? Despite Having a good majority. And then how slim is the majority? You know, we're assuming here unified Democratic government job by this president. We don't know that's gonna happen. But let's say that happens. I am left. Republicans say no stimulus. No bills whatsoever that you compact well, in that case, Democrats, even Joe Manchin might say. Us. We just We have to govern and therefore will do with the filibuster. But if Republicans are more willing to compromise on stuff like that, or, you know, willing, tto lose on stuff like that. That would take away a lot of the impetus to get rid of the filibuster. Thanks, Jonathan. That's Jonathan Bernstein, a political columnist for Bloomberg Opinion. Bloomberg OPINION column This Frank Barry is crossing the country in a Winnebago to find the spirit of America. Last week, we heard about his departure from Times Square in New York City, this week's destinations Transit in Philadelphia. Think of your first week. What's your general sense of traveling in a Winnebago on the Lincoln Highway? Well, Lincoln Highway was originally a series of dirt road hasn't moved Ah, more or less driving Winnebago through some of the sounds and the real challenge is small enough. We've been ableto maneuver around, but we've been we've been enjoying, and it's going well and getting a lot of great people on having a lot of really interesting conversation. This week includes a drive through New Jersey, the Garden state and in Trent, and you saw a lot of boarded up buildings that had been boarded up for a decade or more. Well, Trenton is a city with a lot of great industrial history that is long gone, but the old worldly wire works was there rolling being the man who built the Brooklyn Bridge over this done, so there's great history there. There's a bridge. And transcend that the strength and makes the world takes. And that was true for an awfully long time. Its not true anymore And there are a lot of boarded up buildings in Trenton. Ah, ah and there, although a lot of people are working to revive it, But as you know that the along Our journey and lots of cities around the country have experienced similar losses and jobs and industry and have tried to build back with varying degrees of success track that it's just one example of it. And you talk to an unusual graffiti artist unusual not because of his art, but because of his involvement with the government. You usually don't think of graffiti artists being so are helpful for the reverse of a city..
"jonathan bernstein" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Technologies. I'm Charlie Pelican that there's a Bloomberg business Flash Bloomberg opinion informed perspectives and expert data driven commentary on breaking news. It is time now for Bloomberg opinion. Joining us today is columnist Jonathan Bernstein. Jonathan Welcome back, Great to have you with US. You got a fascinating piece, particularly because on my home stays Michigan and starts out with Rick Snyder, the former governor endorsing Joe Biden. You're not sure how excited you are about it. Well, you know, the truth is there are very small expected effects from something like that. There are hardly any voters, even in Michigan who are sitting there saying Well on ly. I knew Rick Snyder was doing then I know I would have voted for So you know, there's a man and you know, then if you take somebody like, um, you know Christine Todd Whitman, the former governor of New Jersey quite sometime ago. She's not affecting any votes directly. By coming out in favor of Joe Biden. But that doesn't mean there are no effect at all well, and that begs the question. Even if you look at the two conventions as you point out the piece you had Colin Powell, for example, coming out and endorsing Joe Biden. On the other hand, you had a state representative who is AH, Democrat lifelong Democrat endorsing Donald Trump. So there must be some reason why they do that. Well, there's you know, the total right now is that there's a whole lot of former Republican officials who have endorsed Joe Biden and there's a source I know just the one State legislator who's endorsed Who's endorsed Donald Trump, so that there's an overwhelming you know where the defections are there in favor of Joe Biden, and the thing is that it provides two things. First of all. Every time one of these things happen. It's a positive story for Biden. Omega Story for Trump, You know that's not a big deal. But every day that Trump doesn't get his stories in the news media. That's a good day for Joe Biden. Um and so, you know, Snyder endorses. Well, that's a story and it's going to run on Gibson play, especially in the home state again. And so that's a plus. Um, The second thing is that every time it happens, it helps The news media. Understand what's actually going on and feel freer to say yes, Donald Trump's not a normal candidate. He's you know, Unlike normal president, he's unable to keep this party in line. And it colors the coverage that Trump gets going forward. So it's interesting. You raise that, Jonathan, do you think in your opinion? Is that legitimate or not so legitimate? In this sense that sounds like you're sort of tryingto spin the ref as it were. Insofar as the media is supposed to be trying to be at least impartial, trying to be neutral. Is that really something that we should be taking into account? A CZ journalists? Absolutely, because you know to be neutral does not mean to Not report what's actually happening right? And so if the actual news out there is that People who work with Donald Trump. Don't think very much of him that you know there. There isn't this kind of you know, but both sides are not equal at this point. It's important for the media to be able to say that, in fact, because the media cares so much about seeming neutral. It's hard for them to do it in one of the things about these cross party endorsements. Is. It gives an objective way for the media to say things which they sort of believe, anyway correctly, um, and allows them to say things which, otherwise, they might be hesitant to say. If we oversimplify the world and say we have Democrats. We have Republicans. We have independence. Who's the target for these cross endorsements? It's a practical matter is there's some chance that loosens just every bit a little bit the sort of cement that keeps a Republican with a rolled hem party. You know, I think that in general, if it all all of this operates on the margins, and there's no particular reason to think in advance that it's gonna work. Um, equally across. It may very well work equally for all groups or in some cases, it may not. So you know if Colin tells us the endorsement that may Have more ineffective for voters who care particularly about foreign policy and national security issues. Christine Todd Whitman, who was in addition to governor of New Jersey she was head of the She might affect maybe suburban educated women who care about the environment. So you know, some of those may be wavering Democrats who might have hesitations about buying it says to them. Oh, yeah, you know, even a Republican support him. It might be independence. It might even be, you know, loosely attached Republicans. I wonder Jonathan know whether this president particular may just be immunized himself from this. I mean, he has said all sorts of things and had all sorts of fights, including with former members of his Cabinet, four star generals who called him out and condemned him. It doesn't seem to affect him much is that does the American people really care about the fact that people don't like? Some people I should say don't like Donald Trump the person because they may like his policies. Well, I think that you know, you have to think of these things, not in terms of black white but in terms of affecting on the margins, So I would say yes. In fact, All of these previous conflicts do add up and, you know help to explain why Trump is behind in the polls why he's been unpopular president throughout his administration. You know when the economy was doing well, so you know, going back before the pandemic. He was still well underwater in the public opinion polls and in fact, behind Joe Biden and they head to head matchups, and you know why does that happen? Well, it's not that Voters on mass, You know, all say, you know, Donald Trump did this or Donald Trump, you know, got in a fight with so and so, therefore, it all adds up little bits at a time to undermine his position. And to affect how the coverage works, which in turn undermines his position, which might explain a little bit. Why President was so quick to come out and condemn that Atlantic piece about what he said about support, reportedly said about veterans who died. Exactly. You know the the idea that Oh, this is going to be the thing that suddenly doesn't that that's not, you know, it doesn't work like that. It works on the margins a little bit of time. But it's a fascinating column really appreciate your being with us, Teo Describe it to us. That's Blue Merc opinion columnist Jonathan Bernstein. You can read more on this and other stories from Bloomberg opinion at Bloomberg dot com. Slash opinion and on the terminal by typing.
"jonathan bernstein" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Opinion comets. Jonathan Bernstein, We're gonna talk about Jonathan. I'd love to get your take on just kind of the postmortem if you will of first the Republican Convention, which just Ended last evening. Well, you know, Think about the Republican Convention. The problem. The biggest problem they had, I think is just the sense that they were out of touch with What people in the states or concerned with what voters care about. You know the decision to sort of portray the pandemic and the economic fallout of endemic as something that was already solved, Essentially except well. We also have the vaccine, but But it's all it's really past tense. And you know Larry could load specifically talked about it as past tense in past tense, you know that just doesn't mesh with the way Americans are living their lives these days, and I think You know that's really a problem for the party. But one could argue that the party is reflecting quite well. His bass who generally speaking you know hasn't perhaps You know, probably views the pandemic in a similar fashion. Well, I think you know the the the attempt of the core of what Trump does over and over again is speak on ly to his strongest supporters. You know, I think that's correct. And of course, they're going to like him, and if you are trumps strongest supporter, you believe that he's handled the pandemic wonderfully. The problem is that his strongest supporters or about 25% of the electorate, There's another. You know, 15%. We're probably gonna vote Republican. Anyway. The problem is that adds up to 40 41 42%, and you need more than that. So what do you believe the Republicans need to do coming out of the convention between now and the election? Well, they need to get from 42% 2. You know, they may not need to get the 50% because they may have an electoral college advantage again. But they need to at least get back up to the 46% for you. You know that he had last time. And the polls show he's just not there. And it's not clear at this point. What you do if you're the incumbent president, you know, presiding over 10% unemployment and 1000 people dying a day. You know, the problem is the reality. The problem is the governing problems. Not really the campaign problems so some people took. I think more the traditionalists. I would Characterize that. Maybe maybe not took offense to the actual convention taking place at the White House last night, with all the pomp and circumstance and the fireworks and the lack of social distancing and mask wearing. That was just kind of spectacle. What do you want your take? Well, yeah, it is. Certainly improper and probably illegal to have used the White House. I actually probably would have given him a little bit of slack. I mean, there's a pandemic. You can't have a convention. You know if he had just used it the way that they used it for the first lady's speech the other night, But the fact that they also during the convention, um conducting official business, you know, granted pardons during the convention. For you for the cameras that the cabinet and other people, you know, we're clearly engaged in political activities. You know, all that stuff is You know, just a example of how lawless trump and his administration have been. And you know, I don't know what extent that has electoral implications, But it certainly has implications about what kind of, um you know, Administration that this What does former Vice President Joe Biden need to do between now and the election? You know he's got to him. He will start campaigning in person. Some, um, they have a strong hand. But you know, it's not an insurmountable leave. He has to do the job. You have to. You know, Biden has always been gaffe prone. He's going to continue to say thing. Put its foot this mouth. He needs to minimize that while you know, getting the job done, you know. Continue campaign continue to, um, do a professional job of a campaign and we'll see if he can do that. Should he debate President Trump? Oh, absolutely. Yeah. The debates are almost certainly gonna happen. Biden certainly isn't going to back out. Um, it is possible that Trump will find some excuse for backing out. You know, um With the by the Trump campaign is is been smearing Biden and saying, You know, if hinting, or explicitly saying that he's mentally deficient, But you know, we had a president last night, who gave up on his speech about three quarters the way in, he stopped bothering to hit the applause lines. It was clearly tired, so you know, can Donald Trump debate over? Um you know, of course, about 90 minute debate or something like that. I don't know. Um, but obviously, but I'm going to try and debate. I would expect that Trump will, too, because I think he has great confidence in his own abilities. To, you know, do that kind of thing exactly 22nd stance. And do you believe polls? Yeah, the poles are, you know they have margin there. They could be somewhat wrong. But basically the Poles did a better than people think job in 2016. They were after in 2018. There's no reason not to believe. The polls if you understand them correctly. Interesting. Dr Burstein. Thank you so much. We appreciate that. Jonathan Bernstein Bloomberg Opinion Politic Politics columnist Joining us. We appreciate that. You can read all of Jonathan's work at Bloomberg dot com. Slash opinion and on the terminal O P. I and go for all of Johnson's work and all the other. Great opinion work that comes out of Limerick opinion Every day they're putting out really thought provoking work, and I we highly recommend you take a look at that. We appreciate Jonathan coming on looking at the market share. Quick data check still green on the screen pulling back a little bit, but we have the S and P, up three points of Dow Jones Industrials up about 25 points on the NASDAQ leading the way up 4/10 of 1%. 6 11,077 right now, let's go down to Washington, D. C. Let's.
"jonathan bernstein" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"The people affected about as today's Bloomberg small business report from the Bloomberg interactive brokers studio this is Bloomberg best its forty seven minutes past the hour now it's time for Bloomberg opinion David Westin spoke with columnist Jonathan burns dean about the Democrats impeachment hearing informed perspectives and expert data driven commentary on breaking news from the interactive brokers studio this is balance of power and it's time now for Bloomberg opinion today welcome columns Jonathan Bernstein so Jonathan we had the first day of open hearings on impeachment yesterday another one tomorrow I've been fine in part by just reading your opinion pieces which are coming up fast and furious what we learned so far well two things first of all the Democrats have finally figured out how to hold a hearing the over the course of the year they have been a bunch of attempts by the Democrats to do that and they've sort of botched it and as the years gone on they've got a little better a little better and yesterday they sort of ran a smooth hearing they laid out the evidence that they had you know they they didn't get tied up in the procedural knots they learn how to deal with Republican government objections and learn how to sort of just show anyone who is watching exactly what they had to say and what the witnesses have to say and the second thing of course is that they have the witnesses had devastating things to say about Donald Trump and you know laying out exactly what he did wrong and why it's wrong does it appear the Democrats are going to remain pretty much focused on the Ukraine story that is to say that the question of whether the president withheld support and maybe with held a meeting from a presence Lynskey of Ukraine tied to an investigation exactly and it certainly seems that the hearings tomorrow and then three days next week are gonna be focused on that to some extent it does have some relationship to the Russia story into other things but yeah there's no sign right now that the Democrats are going to be talking about small you man sort of that is president the president profiting off of his businesses through his political career or a sexual assault or any of the others many families that come up for president trump these hearings are start at least for now are narrowly that focused on the Ukraine story thank you to Bloomberg opinion columnist Jonathan Bernstein you can read more on this and other stories from Bloomberg opinion at Bloomberg dot com slash opinion and on the terminal by typing O. P. I. and go and now let's check in with the Bloomberg affiliates to find out what's happening on the nation's most influential radio stations.
"jonathan bernstein" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Of twenty thirteen as the stronger economy lifted prices for companies and baby boomers decided it was a good time to sail and retire. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates four times last year and a total of nine times says twenty fifteen the rating creases through two thousand eighteen have made it more expensive to finance purchases and a slightly weaker economy is likely to make some potential buyers wary about acquiring a business, and that's the boom. Bird small business report from the Bloomberg interactive brokers studio, this is Bloomberg best. It's forty seven minutes past the hour. And now, it's time for Bloomberg opinion. I'm Jonathan Bernstein. A columnist for Bloomberg opinion, the best model for Joe Biden and nomination. Politics is Walter Mondale in nineteen Eighty-four Mondale like Biden was a successful vice president and a well regarded Senator like Biden, he didn't really inspire a lot of enthusiasm and his liberal history seemed a bit old fashioned Mondale almost lost the nomination, but eventually enough Democrats stuck with the candidate. They knew one danger is that Biden will wind up as Mondale light. And that will be good enough. Another danger is that even if Biden winds up like Mondale is one of the finalists for the nomination. He might not get as lucky with his opponent between Biden and Bernie Sanders. Most party actors will presumably swing strongly to Biden. However, I'm not sure Biden retains his support against several of the other candidates. I'll be impressed. If Biden rolls out eye-popping slate of endorsements this week and surges. And the polls. But even then I find it hard to believe he'll be stronger than Mondale was in nineteen Eighty-four and Mondale barely one. I'm Jonathan Bernstein for more opinion. Please go to Bloomberg dot com slash opinion, or Opie. I n go on the Bloomberg terminal. Thank you. Now. Let's check in with the Bloomberg affiliates to find out what's happening on the nation's most influential radio stations..
"jonathan bernstein" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Dow Industrial's down to one hundred twenty nine tenths NASDAQ down eighty six a drop of one point two percent. I'm Charlie Pellett. That's a Bloomberg business flash. Bloomberg best with June Grasso. And Ed Baxter continues. From the Bloomberg interactive brokers studio, this is Bloomberg best. It's forty seven minutes past the hour. And now, it's time for Bloomberg opinion. I'm Jonathan Bernstein, a columnist for Bloomberg opinion. Do you remember the proposals and Donald Trump state of the union speech? Probably not all of the Union's fade rapidly Trump's fade more rapidly than most because he still doesn't understand are the speech is an opportunity like last year Trump's speech was far more focused on the folks in the gallery that on policies. He engaged in some soaring rhetoric about child cancer, then asked congress for barely any funding. And then there were the recycled ideas, including school choice and parental leave. If you blinked you missed infrastructure on his biggest issue, the border wall. He just ran the same rhetoric without hinting what he's going to do if he doesn't get what he wants from congress. What matters for president in the state of the union is reaching an administration position, and then placing it on the national agenda, which means this was another way stopper. Trinity. From a president who was wasted. Plenty of them. I'm Jonathan Bernstein for more opinion. Please go to Bloomberg dot com slash. Opinion or Opie? I n go on the Bloomberg terminal. Thanks jonathan. Now. Let's check in with the Bloomberg affiliates to find out what's happening on the nation's most influential radio stations. I'm Gina Cervetti and on WBZ in Chicago. I'm reporting that westjet is rethinking its excitement over bowling's. Smallest 737 max for Netanyahu on W H A S and logo quarterly results at yum brands.
"jonathan bernstein" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"It's forty eight minutes past the hour. And now, it's time for Bloomberg opinion. I'm Jonathan Bernstein. A columnist for Bloomberg opinion. Nancy Pelosi went on the offensive Wednesday by postponing Donald Trump state of the union speech. And even suggesting that Trump might want to just submitted in writing there's little question that the speaker knows how to negotiate and how to fight a larger point, however is just how topsy turvy this entire shutdown has been closing. The government has been Trump's idea from the beginning. Trouble is Trump and other Republicans who want the shutdown should also want it to be painful, and they should be emphasizing. How terrible the consequences are closed. Government can be instead Democrats are the ones constantly emphasizing the effects. Well, Trump and his ministry. Are downplaying them. But if they are correct, then why should Democrats feel any pressure? In other words, it's still hard to see how this ends well for the president. He should be looking for the least harmful escape path. But so far it's not even clear he realizes he's played himself into an impossible position. I'm Jonathan Bernstein for more opinion. Please go to Bloomberg dot com slash opinion, or Opie. I n go on the Bloomberg terminal. Thank you Jonathan. And now, let's check in with the Bloomberg affiliates to find out what's happening on the nation's most influential radio stations. I'm Courtney Donohoe on can't they be in Omaha. Shopco filed for bankruptcy becoming the latest victim of the retail. Apocalypse says merchants struggle with too much debt by made Corey KF vk in Sacramento, I'm reporting a group of activist shareholder proposing that Amazon stopped selling facial recognition software to government agencies. I'm Steve Podesta on KYW in Philadelphia. We're talking about the Philly fed index of regional business conditions. I'm Andrew O'day on WBZ in Boston. I'm talking about fresh disclosures by GE regarding its political donations. I'm Lisa guarantee on W w j in Detroit, I'm reporting Volkswagen Nissan and Honda say the death of the sedan has been exaggerated. Thanks, lisa..
"jonathan bernstein" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Bloomberg world headquarters, I'm John Tucker with this Bloomberg business flash on a day when the S and P five hundred ended down sixty two points. This was a fall of two and a half percent to twenty four forty seven. The Dow Jones industrial average fell two point eight percent. It was down six hundred sixty points at twenty two thousand six hundred eighty six composite index fell two hundred two points. A decline of just over three percent to end the day at sixty four sixty three. Stocks sank after a factory gauge dropped the most in a decade and apples cut in a sales outlook continue to reverberate throughout the markets. Adding to concern that global growth is slowing. We had treasuries rally and the yen another safe haven that strengthened the yen was at one zero seven sixty seven up one point one percent against the US dollar the ten year yield fell to two point five five percent. And that's a Bloomberg business flash. I'm John Tucker. Bloomberg interactive brokers studio, this is Bloomberg best. And it's forty eight minutes past the hour. Now, it's time for Bloomberg opinion. I'm Jonathan Bernstein, a columnist for Bloomberg opinion. We're now well into one of the longest government shutdowns in US history. The problem this time is never made sense for Donald Trump to force a shutdown over funding for his border wall. So assessing what will come next is well difficult instead of making a deal last year when Republicans held unified control of government Trump has chosen to negotiate from a position of. Of relative weakness as Democrats take over the house majority. What he's bought for that trade off is a very public demonstration of his belief in a border wall. As far as the Democrats, go my sense is they have little interest in pressing their new negotiating advantages. If they can get the that they had when the Senate recently passed a Bill to keep the government open. They'll take that's the Raymond that trumpet seemingly endorsed and then rejected which gets back to where I started. It's impossible to make predictions about this stuff when negotiator behaved irrationally. I'm Jonathan Bernstein for more opinion. Please go to Bloomberg dot com slash opinion, or Opie. I n go on the Bloomberg terminal. Thanks jonathan. Now. Let's check in with the Bloomberg affiliates to find out what's happening on the nation's most influential radio stations..
"jonathan bernstein" Discussed on Slate's Political Gabfest
"Right. That we can't even really key in this funny way. He he plays against himself because he wants attention so badly that he brings it back onto the presidency. Even in a moment when it would be smart to just kind of punt to congress. How do you guys think if you were if you were Nancy Pelosi? Chuck Schumer or even Mitch McConnell that you deal with the problem of an untrustworthy negotiating partner. I mean, this is the problem, of course for the shutdown, but it's gonna be a problem going forward. How is it that that the people who need to negotiate with him can work with him to actually get anything done? Or is it a hopeless task? I mean, if I were McConnell, I would basically be trying to trick him. Right. Because I don't think I don't think shutdown is in McConnell's interest, right? What what is McConnell care about? He cares about confirming judges. He cares about keeping his Senate majority. I don't see how shutdown helps either those. So I basically be looking for a wait for Trump to claim some kind of victory if I were Pelosi and Schumer, I would be really torn because there's a there's a part of me that wouldn't actually be looking that hard for a solution. Because I would think that the risks are more to Trump, and I would pass my bills, and I would basically say to Trump hate we've passed these bills you want a solution. Let's play ball as they told them in the Oval Office. Before the New Year's it's not like he has a lot of Republican votes for the wall either. So he's in a tough spot. I mean, somehow they're gonna like muddle their way out of this eventually, but I don't see the short term solution is for Trump to just like change the rules of the game declare victory move on. And the longer term is for him to get back into some corner. But that then it becomes harder to see how he capitulates. I think the just at some point. He's just going to have to like figure out a way to declare victory. Can we talk a little bit more about Madison Romney, and whether we think that the concern about Trump's presidency is deep enough in the Republican party that it might actually have some tangible results as opposed to just rhetorical ones. Is there evidence that that is going somewhere? I mean, certainly after Madison's resignation. It seemed like people on both sides of the aisle or willing to express real. You know, close to fear about what this was going to mean for the government. And yet I don't see any actual steps being taken to protect the country differently. Nothing will happen. I cannot see anything happening. But David you're wiser than I I I don't think I'm wiser than you are. But I there are a couple of political scientists whose work I've enjoyed through all this Jonathan Bernstein, and Matt Glassman, and they've argued that actually congress has constrained Trump more than most people understand. And that basically if you look at Trump's lack of success at getting almost any legislation passed save a tax cut, which is like the layup of all lay ups for Republicans, and you look at the ways in which his own agencies haven't always even tried to implement what he's doing on things like foreign policy on trade that that this criticism of him actually has constrained him in certain ways, and I'm kind of sympathetic to that case. I think Trump hasn't been able to get as much done as many presidents in a whole bunch of realms and part of the reason for that is some of this criticism from congress, and I do think they haven't done nearly enough. They haven't constrained of nearly as much as I. Think they should. But I do think that there Trump faces risks this year that we will see more and more of this. And that when the Muller report comes out, he will not have a particularly strong base of support. But David you're looking at me. Well, I don't understand what the this legislation. This this illusory legislation that Donald Trump's administration wanted to put forward. They don't have. They have. No, I would have said what's constrained, the Trump is their incompetence is that they don't particularly have an agenda. They don't have anyone who's there to write a Bill..
"jonathan bernstein" Discussed on The Sicario Effect
"Hey, guys, it's Jonathan Bernstein. Here your host. I just wanted to take a minute to say thank you to all of our listeners. We couldn't do this without your support. Also, I wanted to say if you guys have questions if their stuff you wanna know in if there's stuff that you've come across in the last thirteen episodes, and you have questions or you're wondering about something, please. By all means tweet meet at Sicario effect, bore Ajay Branston that's J B R A N D S T E, I N, and you can also go on our website and ask questions there. I have one request, please, please. Please review and rate if you can do that it will help us tremendously. I hate asking because I just want to provide content for you guys to enjoy and listen to, but it helps tremendously I has I've said in the past. I don't like asking for that. But you cannot imagine what it means when we get reviews from you guys. And so far we've had really good reviews. So it's been nice also if you could tell your friends. And have them. Subscribe. That is one way that will help us tremendously. And it's another way of showing your support. And we really really appreciate it now because it's thanksgiving we decided to take a break and spend time with family and friends with that said, we didn't want to leave you without anything. So we decided to bring you a mini episode this week, it's not gonna be as long as normal episode. But it's just something to I guess hopefully tide you over and then next Monday, we will have a whole new episode. Our next official episode. That is episode fourteen will be out on December third and everything subsequently after that. So again, thank you. And please, please I'll say last time rate and review it really helps. And thank you again for supporting us. It means a lot a listener note. The story contains adult content.
"jonathan bernstein" Discussed on Pop Culture Continuum
"Stinker lets loose so and at the beginning they have all these people talking about this movie in nineteen seventy seven. They came out with part of like the CB trucker craze called stinker. Let's loosens about this redneck trucker and has a pet monkey and all this shit. And like everybody's talking about how they sought at the drive in and blah, blah. It was never a movie, not an actual real movie. But this audiobook is supposedly. A reading of the novelization of the movie that came out nineteen, seventy seven. I said, there was no real movie. It's really stupid, but it has like Jon Hamm is the main guy stinker. It has a Andy Richter Andy daily. Paul Tomkins a bunch of great people reading. This is on platform. Audible. Yes, on audible or like I said, I tunes you can get as an audiobook. However you can find it. Yes, stinger lets loose. I mean, it's so dumb that like I couldn't listen to it straight through. I had to take breaks because I was like, dude, but it is funny talent on his great and I will also recommend. I recommend to books went on who cares? I read a lot. I'll have more mad world an oral history of new wave artists in the songs that defined the nineteen eighties by Laurie meduse key and Jonathan Bernstein. So they they pick songs from these new wave artists and than they talked to the actual artists about the song. So it's kinda cool and another one is called our mathematical universe. Shit. I don't have the author on me, but it's basically a physics cosmology, and he talks a lot about the mathematical concepts and things that led to all these scotteri. So you know, if you're a big nerd, it's it's very fun. Those are mine. I think I'm just going to recommend to as America such a baron Cohen show Reynolds shirt time. It's typical stuff that he does, but it's still really funny. Yeah, I heard hitter missed pending on what he's doing, but. Well, there's, I think every episode has at least one hit though he plays. He has like the super-conservative character super violent, conservative character..
"jonathan bernstein" Discussed on Vox's The Weeds
"Swayed because like you can say, I think something Jonathan Bernstein and some others of witness look like in politics, talk is action, which I do think is true, but it also matters where you talk, right? Like talk off the record to Jake Sherman about how you're doing all that you can and the president just has this irrational be in his bonnet is a particular kind of talk. Right? And the purpose of that talk is to distance yourself from Trump while also trying to come down the temperature pressure. Token Fox News is delivering a message to Trump's core supporters, right? And a thing you could do like, I don't think that Sean Hannity would refuse to book Paul, Ryan. If he said, I would like to come on and have a vigorous argument with you. You about pressure policy? I mean, maybe think Sean Hannity completely refused to. Well, I mean he would have Paul Ryan that be hunker, Carlson, probably would you could do this right? But instead like the zone, if you just watch FOX, you would just see these House Republicans doing this stuff. And while Paul Ryan because he's sleazy liar, like doesn't personally engage in these kinds of antics about the FIS. Marin like he picks the committee chairs like he controls the floor agenda, and this is what they are doing. They wake up every day and they try really hard to perpetuate this cover up and like that's fine, right? Like it's partisan government. If Republicans want to help Donald Trump be corrupt and helped the Russian government destroy American democracy just like they want to destroy every other aspect of American democracy like that is their right, but it really makes me mad when they go. Like whining to axios and politico goes, one is to do. Fucking nothing. Do nothing. Okay. So let us debate that quite possibly lake. There are hundreds of Republicans in either chamber of congress and lake. Maybe the people who are talking to Jake Sherman are not Jim Jordan. Key point. Like I want you. I want to just for the sake of this episode. Imagine that such a Republican exists because I think it is more likely than it exists than not, and also because like there are answers to what do you want us to do? You don't have to just throw up your hands and say like, well, we can't do anything because other people out there are trying to undermine attempted oversight of the president, like just with things we've already talked about in this episode so far one, you could lift up the things that do underline the conclusion of the intelligence agencies. Just like Jim Jordan is lifting up the light fiction that the FIS application validates the newness memo. You can lift up the things that do underlying kind of your assessment of the case without picking fights with your colleagues to you. Could. I don't know Paul Ryan could stop running interference for Nunez in picking fights with the DOJ over what documents their turnover, which is something that we know he is done three. Like if you're a standard backbencher you could be spending your time lifting up the borough Warner investigation. So that even if you're a member of the house, you're like sending the message that is far as you're concerned. There is a serious congressional investigation and there is a non serious one, four..
"jonathan bernstein" Discussed on Filmspotting
"Okay so that's the other really interesting thing about the film and it's right there in the script written by jonathan bernstein and james greer is that both possibilities can be true right she can be there against her will because of nefarious reasons and she can be having a serious mental christ right in until they clarify specifically until the plot clarifies what's happening i had no idea right and that's again i was questioning myself and her the whole time and i think that is held intention yes or you could make the case the entire film and that's an injured writing tack to take it's one of the things i want to go back and watch it again yes to really try to suss out and i also like in the script as well and how we captures this performance is that this crisis that she's facing the psychological crisis at least is rooted in two traumas that we come to learn about and i think both of those again we won't detail them but are interwoven nicely throughout the film so that it leaves us question how much damage has she taken on because of these experiences and we're kind of i you know we're clearly still left with that question to a different degree at the end of the film yeah we are now the iphone on your fro cheer obviously we saw it to great effect in sean bakers tangerine the first film really to gain some attention and deservedly so our golden brick winner here on the show a few years ago i think somewhere along the way maybe back when we were doing our fall movie preview in those questions i saw a description of this movie that said something about it being shot in secret and it occurred to me today that i probably misinterpreted what secret meant i thought that not only was it shot on an iphone josh but the iphones allowed soderbergh to shoot in such a way where they were basically capturing it was i think i've said it was the bow finger style where it's like the actors yale in this case the actors know that they're making a movie but the rest of the.
"jonathan bernstein" Discussed on The 11th Hour with Brian Williams
"Many of our presidents have dealt with scandal at some point in their presidencies end after a first year overshadowed by the muller investigation donald trump is now on that list so far nineteen people have been charged five have pleaded guilty including former national security adviser michael flynn former deputy campaign manager rick gates and campaign adviser george pompidou helpless without knowing what other charges might still come the folks who compile our morning political summary around here i read it nbc news wrote this today quote whether or not muller ever finds a smoking gun that trump and his campaign colluded with russia this is already the biggest political scandal in decades and we are just more than a year and to trump's presidency and nine months and muller's pro they go on to reference comments made by political scientist jonathan bernstein who said it's quote clearly the worst presidential scandal sin at least irancontra but probably cents watergate jonathan bernstein is here with us tonight is a longtime political science professor who is now a columnist for bloomberg view wall jonathan but let me have you put it in the way you'd like how big is this thus far based on what we know and why well you've got to begin with russia out you know interfering in the united states election trying to influence the election you've got the trump campaign at the very least welcoming that interference we don't know if there was whatever accounts as collusion book but they certainly welcomed at both publicly the president of the now president on the stump invited russia to interfere in the campaign essentially and we know that covertly that was also going on that there was meaning in trump tower in at center and cetera so it so we've got that and then we've got a cover up you know we've got obstruction of justice from the president which he talked about admitted to brag about on television that he fired the director of the fbi because of the russia investigation so if you put all that together you've got as you you just went through the list of how many indictments guilty pleas already it's a major major story as he was coming down the aisle to deliver a state of the union i remember remarking that i i couldn't remember another president at the end of his first year with his presidency as emperor.
"jonathan bernstein" Discussed on P&L With Pimm Fox and Lisa Abramowicz
"A from doing anything really meaningful new on the uh on the rate front at least a year away and in the meantime if you want to beat long euros it hold euros you have to pay uh a uh you have to pay care you have to be you know if you're your daughter funded you have to pay a negative rate differential to hold that position so that you know i think it's important to listen to the signal but not forget that the reality on the ground right now is that policy is still very accommodative in europe yes the economy is hot but what that does is create a real uh downward pressure on real rates because inflation goes up in europe nominal rates are held stable in real rates actually get get lower which can hurt the currency in the near term thanks very much for being with us daniel katz is is the head of fx strategy in north america or be and teat sorry bob the did vote two two the kfqd there was an election a yesterday in alabama and the verdict was somewhat surprising this very red state turned blue for the first time in more than twenty years here to talk about what the implications are is jonathan bernstein bloomberg view columnist coming to us from san antonio jonathan thank you so much for being with us what's your main take away from it the election of doug jones to be the senator representing the long red alabama in the senate where we removed furner bureau every move from it vote count removes a huge difference between having a 52 48 majority of republican bid you're who we went through your corner him to having a fifty one forty nine majority you know of vice president trump has already had the break car farms because republicans couldn't keep all fifty two together um you know oil pequal republicans would have walked.