22 Burst results for "John Farrow"
Bloomberg Radio New York
"john farrow" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Making. You're so fancy with that bow tie today. Very cool. In the FX market a euro looks like this clinging to 108. The data out of the Eurozone just has not been great at all 108 .08 that currency pair Tom negative 0 .1 % you caught up with ECB president Christine going Lagarde into the ECB and that ECB seemingly does not want to give anything away going into that decision on September 14th. Not only that but I think they're respectful of what the market reaction could be in bonds. I mean bonds here aren't like bonds here but within the entire debt instruments towards banking instruments and the floating nature of so much of this you know they're walking on eggshells to get to September 14th. US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo continuing her trip in China telling the premier quote President Biden asked me to come here to convey the message that we do not seek to decouple. It is still unclear whether Secretary Raimondo will meet with President Xi Jinping before her trip concludes later this week. We don't want to decouple. This has been the message continuously through the year. Secretary Yellen tried to convey the same thing. The word Secretary Yellen used was diversify. Yes after she had moved on to de -risk. They're really trying to finagle the language here to not potentially indicate to China they that really are trying to cut ties with that economy and with that trade relationship. They say that's not what they're trying to It's achieve. about protecting national security interests. But to your point, Jean, of the question of whether Raimondo will meet with Xi Jinping, we're also wondering if President Biden will be meeting with him again. They haven't spoken since last November. Is that set for later this year? Potentially? Potentially maybe. Is that what we're working towards with this? Perhaps that would be the indication. Get those ties warmed up with other administration officials for a meeting with the two leaders. But of course, the language to your point, John, on what he's been saying at campaign fundraisers, calling Xi Jinping a dictator, China taking time I don't imagine that might not be that helpful. If I'm in Congress, I'm listening to John Farrow. Why aren't they coming here? You ask that question. I don't know the answer to that. That's a really good question. Well documented that leader the of China hasn't traveled much since. Well, I don't mean just a leader, but the other ministers as well. I just it's a one way. One by way the US government, like the defence minister. That's been a problem. Yes. A big, big issue. The latest out of China this morning, so much to talk about the potential that we get deposit rates cut, the potential we get mortgage rate cuts, the potential we get fiscal easing. But I stress the word that we need to emphasize is potential. These things in big ways to support this market or this economy for that matter. The other story to talk about the head of bank supervision at the San Francisco Fed, Azar Abbasi stepping down months after the banking crisis of Signature Valley Bank. Abbasi and Fed president Mary Daly under scrutiny in the wake of the collapse of SVB and other lenders as well. Abbasi will retire at the end of October. The San Francisco Fed is yet to respond to the timing of the departure, Tom, that's going to take place a little bit later this year, about a month or so. I see Mary Daly at Jackson Hole. You sort of wonder how that's all going to be played out and this is obviously the first step of it. There's discussion about Daly's distance from all this banking debacle. I'm not up to speed it on other than to say this doesn't surprise me at all. The surprise is the timing that it's taken this long to get to this point. People would say let's go, let's go, let's go, but the fact is the machine moves slower, and so that's where we are. We'll try and get more clarity on that and the final story we need to just keep an eye on over the next couple of of days, course particularly for the residents of Florida. Hurricane Idalia set to make landfall on North Florida by Wednesday. High winds, storm surge could deal as much as 10 billion dollars worth of damage. The Florida Governor, Ron DeSantis, is expending evacuation mandatory orders for the counties in the storm's path, Tom. It's that time of year and this one looks pretty brutal so far. I believe it's north of where it was last time, but not only people on the west coast of Florida, but John, many surveillance guests who have places down there. I think hammered is the proper word. They really got a lot of damage. Big time, one to watch and of course Wednesday the day to watch, Tom. So we'll be of on top that story tomorrow. Yeah, we'll have to see, but we'll follow carefully in a movable feast always within the Gulf of Mexico. Joining us now on bonds and particularly on the European dynamics of bonds off the ECB. What do do bonds tell you in Europe? And let me go to the German debt market, which is what we follow in New York. What do German yields signal now? Well, investors are heavily divided about what the ECB do. will I think what yields signal is we've seen a bit of a 10 year rise, a bit of a flattening off the curve. So investors a bit worried that inflation will be around for longer and that will result in higher rates for as longer well. You and ABN emerald just did a fancy survey of the mood of those that need yield. Are people clipping coupons or are they actually looking for some form of total return? Investors are looking for total return, but did we did an investor survey. We do it twice a year. We had more than 170 investors responding, so quite a big survey across a wide range of countries. We will publish a note, but a sneak preview showed that indeed about 10 -year yield, 10 -year bond yields, some investors think it will end up $3 .30, others think it will be at 2 something percent. So it's a bit to what you said before, the conditions at the moment are so uncertain, it's so unclear what path the economy will go and what central banks will do, and that is also heavily reflected in the results of our survey, to be honest. But what given you're saying about how uncertain it is, and that is also the message that Jerome Powell I think was trying to convey in his speech at Jackson Hole, that the cloudy stars night situation poetry, basically that just they don't know, and yet what you're seeing in the treasury market in particular seems more definitive. John was just talking about north of five percent on the two -year yield for multiple sessions in a row. That auction yesterday, the two year auction yielding the highest since 2006. Is the bond market more sure than the policy Maybe, market?
Bloomberg Radio New York
"john farrow" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Michelle. Thank you, mister Ed. Later this hour we'll have David finnerty one of our FX and rates gurus here at Bloomberg to discuss all the latest moving in the markets. A lot to ask him about in the FX space with currencies jumping around in central banker activity and of course an anticipation of that big fed decision coming next week. We're in the quiet period now for fed officials, so we'll grill him on all the latest to watch there. This is Bloomberg. Bloomberg radio on demand and in your podcast feed. On the latest edition of the Bloomberg surveillance podcast from London, our John farrow in conversation with HSBC's max Kepner. I do think if we look at the consensus, right? I do think, look, we've got very pessimistic expectations. I think everyone is saying, look, earnings expectations are still too high. I don't disagree with that, but I disagree with the sequencing. I disagree with the timing, right? Because if we've got pretty much everyone agreeing that H one is going to be tough, if we got economists agree, like they've never agreed before, look at the Philadelphia fed survey on this recession probability. That's the highest in 50 years. So we've got consensus agreeing on the probability of a recession on the factors driving it and on the timing. Now what's the downside surprise then? What's the downside surprise to earnings? If you've seen in Q four and now in Q one, those earnings revisions down what's particularly in the cyclicals in consumer discretionary in materials in the mega caps and IT and communication services. It's exactly where we want to see them. What's the actual downside surprise? Now, I would argue, if we get an average recession, right? It's not going to blow anyone's bowed resonant. It's not going to be like, oh yeah, this is a massive surprise. This is why we need to get bearish. No, not at all. Actually, what we need now is we need to get something properly going wrong. We need to have something break. Then you can be buried. You clearly thought it was upside risk. We've got a squeeze right now, that's clear. I'm trying to work out what are the durable tail widths for this market. I get it. Everything you've said, a lot of people are on board with it. What's durable about what we're seeing? I think it's still durable because sentiment in positioning is still so downbeat. Get more of this and other conversations
Bloomberg Radio New York
"john farrow" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"And CIO at defiant and BTS. We talked there about Tesla. It did say it's on track to deliver about 1.8 million vehicles. This year, we got a closer look at the markets. There's a lot happening today in Asia stay with us. This is Bloomberg. Bloomberg radio on demand and in your podcast feed. On the latest edition of the Bloomberg surveillance podcast from London, our John farrow in conversation with HSBC's max Kepner. I do think if we look at the consensus, right? I do think, look, we've got very pessimistic expectations. I think everyone is saying, look, earnings expectations are still too high. I don't disagree with that, but I disagree with the sequencing. I disagree with the timing, right? Because if we've got pretty much everyone agreeing that age one is going to be tough. If we got economists agreeing like they've never agreed before, look at the Philadelphia fed survey on this recession probability. That's the highest in 50 years. So we've got consensus agreeing on the probability of a recession on the factors driving it and on the timing. Now what's the downside surprise then? What's the downside surprise to earnings? If you've seen a Q four and now in Q one, those earnings revisions down what's particularly in the cyclicals in consumer discretionary in materials in the mega caps and IT and communication services. It's exactly where we want to see them. What's the actual downside surprise? Now, I would argue, look, if we get an average recession, right? It's not going to blow anyone's Bowser. It's not going to be like, oh yeah, this is a massive surprise. This is why we need to get buried. No, not at all. Actually, what we need now is we need to get something properly going wrong. But you come in. We need to have something break. Then you can be bearish. You clearly thought it was upside risk. We've got to squeeze right now, that's clear. I'm trying to work out what are the durable tailwinds for this market. I get it. Everything you've said, a lot of people are on board with it. What's durable about what we're seeing? I think it's still durable because sentiment in positioning is still so downbeat. Get more of this and other conversations on the latest Bloomberg surveillance podcast. Subscribe on Apple Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Plus, listen anytime on the Bloomberg business app and Bloomberg dot com. The best. Hey, what's up, y'all, Kelly Clarkson, and as the daughter of a school teacher, I know just how important education
Bloomberg Radio New York
"john farrow" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"It's going to be a mild one that we're going to go through. So hopefully. But we're all correct on that side of the column. So I look forward to 2023, a second half better than the first half. But yes or no, we're not there in a recession yet. Yes or no? No, we're not there. A serious recession. Merrick Cordero, thank you so much. Executive director at the port of Long Beach, joining us from California. This is Bloomberg. Bloomberg radio on demand and in your podcast feed. On the latest edition of the Bloomberg surveillance podcast from London, our John farrow in conversation with HSBC's max Kepner. I do think if we look at the consensus, right? I do think, look, we've got very pessimistic expectations. I think everyone is saying, look, earnings expectations are still too high. I don't disagree with that. But I disagree with the sequencing. I disagree with the timing, right? Because if we've got pretty much everyone agreeing that H one is going to be tough, if we got economists agreeing, they've never agreed before. Look at the Philadelphia fed survey, right? On this recession probability. That's the highest in 50 years. So we've got consensus agreeing on the probability of a recession on the factors driving it and on the timing. Now what's the downside surprise then? What's the downside surprise to earnings? If you've seen a Q four and now in Q one, those earnings revisions down what's particularly in the cyclicals in consumer discretionary in materials in the mega caps and IT and communications services. It's exactly where we want to see them. What's the actual downside surprise? Now, I would argue, if we get an average recession. It's not going to blow anyone's bodes. And it's not going to be like, oh yeah, this is a massive surprise. This is why we need to get bearish. No, not at all. Actually, what we need now is we need to get something properly going wrong. We need to have something break. Then you can be buried. You clearly thought it was enough cyber risk. We've got to squeeze right now. That's clear. I'm trying to work out what are the durable tailwinds for this market. I get it. Everything you've said, a lot of people are on board with it. What's durable about what we're seeing? I think it's still durable because sentiment in positioning is still so downbeat. Good more of
Bloomberg Radio New York
"john farrow" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Close to 6 tenths of 1%, we're seeing the majority of gains right now, at least on the major indices that we follow on the NASDAQ up by 1.5%. You're listening to Bloomberg businessweek, Tim steinbeck and creedy Gupta in for Carol massar this afternoon and we're. Just getting started. This is Bloomberg. Bloomberg radio on demand and in your podcast feed and the latest edition of the Bloomberg surveillance podcast, a conversation with ADP's nailer Richardson after the jobs report. We learned that our firms, our clients over a million clients, they're still hiring rather aggressively. We also learned that that hiring intensity is coming from small and medium firms that were blocked out through a lot of the hiring in 2022 outmanned by larger firms when it came to benefits and wages. And then the third thing we learned and I think this is really important when you talk about the next steps for the fed is that wages are moderating. They are. But they're not moderating quickly enough to make even a 2% inflation target seem reasonable at this point. They're still quite high, almost double what they were going into the pandemic. So there's still a lot of work to do when it comes to wages and getting them down to a tolerable pace of growth that meets the fed target. The Economist John farrow is really emphasizing the ISM numbers on Friday is well. They show some sogginess. How does Nela Richardson define a soft landing? I have trouble with that phrase, but if we don't like the phrase soft landing, where are we going with that optimistic outcome? Well, to me, a soft landing is a landing you can walk away from. And I think the economy is strong enough right now, at least it looks like it'll do so. We pretty much got a Goldilocks report on the 6. And I'm going to say more about that in a second. But we got our report where you still saw a strong jobs growth and moderating wage growth. That's like the perfect scenario for a soft landing. The question is, will that trend continue? Get more of this and other conversations on the latest Bloomberg surveillance
Bloomberg Radio New York
"john farrow" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"We've got the yen, something like nearly 4% up from where it was yesterday we got at the moment also bonds under pressure. The U.S. ten year yielding 3.68%. This is Bloomberg. On the latest edition of the tape podcast, a conversation with Kathleen Hayes of Bloomberg television on the bank of Japan. Kathleen, I came in here and listened to the energy John farrow and Tom Keane have about the BOJ. I'm like, I don't know. Can you tell me why this is important? Why is this important? Oh my God. First of all, being surprised, I was sitting on the 6th floor in front of our camera up there, getting ready to react to this with our team in Tokyo and Asia. And when I saw the headline come across, widening yield curve control. I was shocked. Everyone was shot. All the signals coming out of the bank of Japan, including governor kuroda, repeatedly was no we're not ready. And the expectation has been, not ready to start making this move. Even with inflation rising, Corona kept saying, well, we don't know if it's sustainable. You know what? There might be a global recession. Bring down prices. That's we need the stimulus. And then we're getting a new governor. The new governor is going to be in place in April. And at that point, that's been the expectation when it would start. But the BOJ has been insisting even when the shift away from extraordinary stimulus started, it would be gradual. And when koda had his press conference last night, one of the things he stressed was we haven't changed our forward guidance and we're still concerned that inflation may not be sustainable, we just have to rise. The spring negotiations start off to the first year probably in late February early March, that it was about financial stability, keeping and there's a big concern about the weekend, right? That's been something that very unpopular with the public. So this is a step. But one thing to say, it's not clear that the regime shift has fully begun, but at the door is definitely wide open. It's clear that's where the BOJ
Bloomberg Radio New York
"john farrow" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"This is boulder. On the latest edition of the Tate podcast, a conversation with Kathleen Hayes of Bloomberg television on the bank of Japan. Kathleen, I came in here and listened to the energy John farrow and Tom Keane have about the BOJ. I'm like, I don't know. Can you tell me why this is important? Why is this important? Oh my God. First of all, big surprise. I was sitting on the 6th floor in front of our camera up there, getting ready to react to this with our team in Tokyo and Asia. And when I saw the headline come across, widening yield curve control. I was shocked. Everyone was shocked. All the signals coming out of the bank of Japan, including governor kroda, repeatedly was no we're not ready. And the expectation has been, not ready to start making this move. Even with inflation rising, Corona kept saying, well, we don't know if it's sustainable. You know what? There might be a global recession, bring down prices. That's we need the stimulus. And then we're getting a new governor. The new governor is going to be in place in April. And at that point, that's been the expectation when it would start. But BOJ has been insisting even when the shift away from extraordinary stimulus started, it would be gradual. And when koda had his press conference last night, one of the things he stressed was, we haven't changed our forward guidance. We're still concerned that inflation may not be sustainable. We just have to rise. The spring negotiations start off to the first year probably in late February early March, that it was about financial stability, keeping and there's a big concern about the weekend, right? That that's been something that very unpopular with the public. So this is a step. But one thing to say, it's not clear that the regime shift has fully begun, but at the door is definitely wide open. It's clear that's where the BOJ is going
Bloomberg Radio New York
"john farrow" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"This is Bloomberg surveillance. We are awaiting U.S. data, but we are more waiting what is happening in 10 Downing Street where we are waiting for some sort of statement, potentially Liz truss stepping down. Tom are getting all sorts of messages about perhaps the lettuce one. Well, there's a zeitgeist that's on there. Guy Johnson standing by as well as we wait for this moment in British history, but with claims out with it extremely good number 214,000. That's a constructive number from two 28. I don't have the revision yet. Down to two 14 is a number that I'm going to call that not Jerome Powell friendly. We're going to stay away from that right now. Equity futures lift on that and yields here, I'm going to call it churning. Maybe yields pull back a little bit 4.56 in the two year and the ten year 4.11%. I'm trying to squeeze this in before we go to the moment in history. Lisa, let us regroup here and I will go to the day John farrow did 9 hours on TV on Brexit and as somebody emailed into me how much of this moment and the moment of Theresa May redounds back to this arch debate of England, the United Kingdom extracting themselves from Europe, how much is that really what we're talking about today? The post Brexit turmoil, I'm sure we'll be a discussion for the history books. Also, the post pandemic playbook at a time when inflation is one of the most important problems pressing a nation, really her agenda was to cut costs and to cut taxes. You're not cut costs, increase costs and cut taxes. It failed. At least when the market size. On radio on television, we show that Beth Rigby always informed says the prime minister is about to resign that according to sky at television. Guy Johnson is in London guy. We're going to stay on 10 Downing Street on TV with a podium set up a good 25 feet from that acclaimed black door. Guy Johnson, if the prime minister resigns, what happens next? We don't know Tom. How is this process going to unfold? I think it's probably just been decided inside Downing Street. We've had this meeting taking place. You've had the chair of the Conservative Party in there. You have the deputy prime minister Kofi in there. You've had the chair of the 1922 committee, mister Brady in Sagar and Brady in there. And I suspect they've been working out how this process is going to unfold. It's not just the 22 rules that need to be changed in the 1922 committee rules to be changed. Other rules need to be potentially altered here as well. I don't know what the process is going to look like, Tom, but what is clear judging by the shot we have up on the screen in front of us is that something is about to change. We welcome all of you on Bloomberg radio and Bloomberg television to this historic moment for the United Kingdom guy Johnson in London with our government team as they report this story. Lisa Brown, what's in Tom Keane. Tragically, I'm not kidding your folks. We make a lot of jokes. We have a lot of fun, but just too bad. John farrow is off today. We look forward to his perspective in the coming days. Lisa, I look off claims at a higher real yield out to 1.71%, but separate from that is the economics here of stronger Sterling and more stability for the next United Kingdom government. Well, more stability for now, which goes to the question which you rightly ask guy, what comes next for all intents and purposes over the next two weeks, three weeks, four weeks, is the United Kingdom going to be run by a technician by Jeremy, Jeremy hunt, who has taken over as the Chancellor. Now we're going to have to see here, and here we go. And now the door opening at 10 Downing Street and the prime minister walks to the podium in silence. Let us listen. I came into office at a time of great economic and international instability. Families and businesses
Bloomberg Radio New York
"john farrow" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"So when you have sizable movements in the dollar, it has very sizable implications for the global economy because it's so dominant in trade and finance. But the important thing to keep in mind is that there are fundamentals that are driving these large rumors. They seem very quick this in very steep. The differences in the path of monetary policy, tightening is one factor, the differences in high energy prices are affecting countries as another factor. So I think this is going to be a bit of a rocky, right? For countries, but they will have to adjust to it. So they have to use their own monetary policy tools to be able to keep inflation. About emerging markets. So let me stay with the major countries with you, doctor gopinath. And let's look at the yen experiment. All of this meeting in the world. John farrow is transfixed by yen one 47. What is the council of you and your chief economist to the Japanese to extricate themselves from their unique yield current curve control experiment? They were a fundamental reasons for that particular divergence that we're seeing in the currency. Japan has decided to stay the course in terms of keeping interest rates low while the fed has decided to stay the course in terms of raising interest rates very decisively to bring down inflation. And that of course is the one of the primary drivers of these different of the fact that the yen has lost value relative to the dollar. Now, of course, over time, monetary policy will have to figure out what the best course is depending upon inflation development in Japan. But as of now, I believe given the diverging trends, currency movements would look like they do now. With all of your expertise, if Japan capitulates to a more normal monetary
Bloomberg Radio New York
"john farrow" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Brilliant interviews over the last 24 hours and another series of interviews still to come. That was John Lipsky, the former first deputy managing director at the MF sitting down with Tom. About an hour or so ago, your equity market shaping up as follows going into the CPI print an hour and 12 minutes from now, equity futures up by 7 tenths of 1% on the S&P, yields go and kind of nowhere on a ten year we're down about a basis .88 42. Tom Keane, we've got the countdown clock ready inflation one hour and 12 minutes away. Everybody here in Washington, John, I'll be looking for that U.S. CPI report and as Lisa mentions, the course statistic I'll be looking at Cleveland CPI or the Dallas trip means some of these custom indicators, but what they all mean and what we'll see at a 30 is tension for the global financial system. If you're a geek on this, if you're part of global Wall Street and want to dig deeper, this is the interview of the day. Tobias Adrian had the privilege of a PhD at MIT with Olivier Blanchard in the giant Stephen Ross. He is director of monetary affairs in capital markets at the IMF. Let me cut right to it. You're the most popular guy at these meetings. What do you telling scared politicians? What do you telling scared central bankers? While the number one goal for monetary policy is to get inflation back to target in the vast majority of countries inflation as well above target and that is the primary concern. Continue, please. Having said that, financial stability is also at risk. So when we are looking at where we are over time in terms of stability, it is very concerning. Over time, what will shift out of these meetings to over time? Will we have a more patient Jerome Powell? Wow, that's a good question. I would expect that what is priced in at the moment is what we are very comfortable with. And I do not see major changes there relative to what is priced in and what relative to what was announced by the policymakers. The third you heard four days ago was me showing John farrow in New York, British guilt out 7 standard deviations, price down, yield up yesterday I believe John will correct me over 5 percent. Should we expect more four or 5 6 7 standard deviation moves and fixed income? Well, I think the Bank of England has had these targeted and temporary asset purchases that are scheduled to expire. And those have been successful in terms of bringing guilds down, temporarily, and bringing them back up in a more gradual manner, so of course the overall stance of monetary policy continues to be one of a tightening as inflation is above 10% in the UK. I want you to go into your iconic green book on financial stability or frankly instability. It is absolutely definitive
Bloomberg Radio New York
"john farrow" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Because that was the consensus position in this equity market, the stamp of the year was to get a long bank because the fed was going to go on a rate hike in cycle. And here we are with the rate hiking cycle that the consensus didn't foresee at all because we were talking about one maybe 2% this year. Now we're talking about three pushing four, maybe even 5 into next year. You're looking at yield curve that's incredibly inverted. You're looking at deal activity that's falling off a cliff. You're looking at this concern that FedEx expressed that companies are not going to be spending as much. It is not a recipe for banks to do well. I can tell you things are turning just a little bit. We were much, much lower than some money on the equity market we're now down to 8 tenths of 1%. Yields are a lot higher than ten year just rolling over in the last 20 minutes or so Tom. Now basically unchanged at three 44 56. We pause here now for a momentous moment where someone came up to me and thanked me for my soccer knowledge and coverage here. Did that actually happen? The olive came out of the martini. Let's do this right now. This guy is exciting. For those of you who don't follow this, this is a reason to follow John farrow in English football. This kid at man city. John, this kid at man city. To me, is the day Shaquille O'Neal showed up in the NBA. Absolutely prolific. He is an old school goal scorer. I don't think he's quite 7 first, but he's an old school goal scorer. Number 9, we kind of drifted away from that in the last decade or so. Manchester City going back to that. A poacher tum. Someone who likes to play inside the area but can break from the back as well. It's just awesome. Did someone actually come up to you and thank you for your sake? Oh yeah, yeah. Absolutely. That's wonderful. You said the two of you are what's happening. You said the two of you are gaslighting
Bloomberg Radio New York
"john farrow" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Look, it's just clear that the sand has a lot more work to do. They're behind the curve still inflation is still by far our biggest problem if everything we're hearing from the fed is be patient we want to see the numbers on inflation we need them to come down. We feel that the fed can probably do its job and get things done in terms of bringing down inflation. I think by the end of this year, we're not talking about inflation anymore. This is Bloomberg surveillance with Tom Keene, Jonathan farrow, and Lisa Abramovich. It's non farm productivity Tuesday from New York City for our audience worldwide. Good morning. This is Bloomberg surveillance live on Bloomberg TV and radio Tom king John farrow and Lisa abrons John off for the entire week, not just today, and yesterday. And Kaley Lyon's very much in the seat, we appreciate it and happy birthday, Tom. I do want to get a sense of how much this is a data dependent market. We see it's a data dependent fed at least what they're saying even though they give a lot of forward guidance. However, we are seeing each data point really move the needle. And what's important is beneath the headline data never as mattered more and that's what we're going to do today with productivity and all its complexities, but Lisa, I would really take it to tomorrow where we really got to parse out the inflation data, not just look at the headline number. You made a great point earlier, Tom, where you were saying that the non farm jobs number that we got in Friday was kind of game changing. And I would agree. I would have heard from a lot of analysts was it confirmed this idea that a recession was not imminent in the economy. How much does that CPI potentially end up being game changing as well? If it comes in, not lighter than expected, but hotter than expected. It can be either way, and we've seen those two different opinions from our gas branch shoot you to join us here in a moment will no doubt weigh on that as well. But what's interesting to me is not so much the makeup of core in headline, but at least of the makeup of the service dynamic versus the goods dynamic in the major surprise to the optimists may be goods disinflation. And that's put a lot of people were kind of expecting the sort of roving inflation. I keep going back to that because it's not sticking in one place. It's going from sector to sector, maybe moving away from washing machines and going toward rents. But Kayleigh, how much are we seeing that in some of the dispersion and earnings? Because we've seen almost 90% of S&P companies report earnings. And it's been all over the map in terms of the optimism or pessimism, but overall resilience is the word. Resilience or at least less bad than feared, which doesn't necessarily make it great, but at least it's something and that has provided somewhat of a ballast of support to the equity market, but you have plenty of people, Mike Wilson, over at Morgan Stanley, David cost and a Goldman Sachs saying looking forward into the rest of this year, that margin pressure is going to come in as you look at producer price inflation, that of course will also be getting later on this week. And that continuing to be a persistent pressure. My question, Lisa, is if inflation is still running hot and the labor market is resilient, doesn't that just mean that the fed has to be even more aggressive in order to actually get demand now? Does that mean the economy is too strong? So their policy doesn't have as immediate as an effect. And that's what Greg Peters was getting at, that he doesn't buy this idea that the fed is going to be able to cut rates next year because of the intransigence of this inflation, but Kaley give us a sense of how good or how bad the earnings were. I mean, how much does Mike Wilson's view a faith based view on what's to come rather than on the ground teale is now? Well, the backwards look was okay, right? You had most companies beating expectations on average by about 4.4%, but we have to keep in mind that a lot of that came from energy because obviously energy companies have just been blowing it out of the water in terms of profit. If you ex that out, earnings have actually been down, not up. So that's something we have to consider. And Tom talking about oil prices, they are up about a percent on the heels of that headline very much driving. A lot of the action that we're seeing today with the drawings that we're seeing in equities continuing to deepen as we move ahead in this morning. Up a stick on Brent crude back to 98. We've ebbed off a little bit in the last 20 minutes, but I would put it in the category at least it bears watching. It bears watching especially because it's a reversal of the trend that we've seen. How much is that? What's underpinning the optimism, the decline in gas prices and this fact that we have seen a cooling off in oil, which is one of the major components for a lot of the headline CPI prints. Right now, let's turn to somebody who's been tracking this all from the wonderful city of Milwaukee. Dear and near to my heart, Brent Judy. CIO of Northwestern Mutual wealth management talking about the potential optimism or not heading into the rest of the year, you think a recession is already baked into the price. What makes you confident about that, given the resilience that we have seen in the evaluations. Well, I mean, there's so many things to say here. I guess if you look at the 25% decline early in the year, I think that was the baking end of a mild recession. Everybody trotted out their graphs that showed that the S&P was pricing in a 91% chance of recession. I think that's priced in. Look, what's going to happen for the rest of the year is going to be determined by the path of CPI period. Everybody does these historial historical analogies they talk about earnings. I think if you look at 66 to 82, if you're going to start making historical analogies. And each and every one of those times, when CPI peaked, the market bottomed. And guess what? During the time when CPI peaked in the market bottomed, earnings actually peaked and rolled over. Think about the CPI comments that you just made, the PPI comments, the producer prices, the margin pressures. The most important thing you need to think about is CPI and I do think that's peaked and I think it moves lower in the coming quarters. Run, as you know, and you've been very good at avoiding the cliches, the mother of all cliches right now is to buy quality. We're in search of what that means. I have no clue. But what I do is know is if I have a three year hold, a more cautious Northwestern Mutual view, I can parse quality growth versus quality value, which is more attractive now, given a short term of three years. Quality value for sure. I mean, if you look at value as a factor, it is as cheap as it's been historically. Agreed. So if you think about value, I think about things like the S&P 600, which surprisingly to some is small caps, but it's quality small caps. There's actually been the best part of the market this year, not large caps, not mid caps. It's quality small cap and towards the value side. Okay, but I need to interrupt. This is so important, Brent, since 2014, we've had a partition where growth is rained supreme. What is the catalyst for quality value to begin to catch up? I just think that the differences in valuation. Look, it's not a valuation is not a shorter term metric, but it's a longer term metric that tends to work. If you buy something cheap, you're paid over periods of time, three, 5, and ten years. You had an extremely odd market during the period of 2010 to 2020, where interest rates were artificially low. Earnings on the technology side were the only game in town. I think that's shifted. You just mentioned earnings in your opening with oil stocks and things of that nature doing a bit better and think about the possibility for interest rates to continue to rise on a ten year, certainly I do think the fed is probably done here in the not too distant future, at least for now, but I don't think we're going back to a period of time where you wake up each morning and worry about deflation. I think it's quite the opposite for the next few years. And every economic cycle has had different leadership because it's unique. And so I think going forward, you should look towards quality of value, just given the cheapness. And if you think about it, the economic environment will eventually shift. I think we're going to have a mild recession. There's another side to that. And we already have price set in, I believe. And so when you think about valuation plus what's coming, I think, from an economic perspective, I think you want to stay in quality. I'm sorry, in value. All right, well, it takes two views to make a market and Brent, you're kind of
Bloomberg Radio New York
"john farrow" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Laurie surveillance on a most important day one hour away from an absolutely key inflation report Lisa's gonna start out with futures right now but I'm sorry Lisa Euro speaks volumes It speaks volumes about the divergence in the pictures for inflation and for growth both in the U.S. and in Europe What I'm going to do here is I'm going to first pretend to be John farrow And then I'm going to pretend to be romaine bostick So pretending to be John farrow taking a look at what's moving markets To me the interesting note is not that the actual magnitude of the moves because they're not that big but rather the divergence between S&P and NASDAQ We have seen for so much of this year the NASDAQ underperform to the most that we've seen going back to the dotcom bubble The S&P we have seen a shift in that as growth concerns start to weigh more heavily NASDAQ futures up about a tenth of a percent S&P futures down about a tenth of a percent Again not huge moves ahead of this key print but still notable A lot of this is being fueled by the bond market You're getting relief on the long end A bid into longer dated bonds the ten year and the 30 year bond yields coming in a bit Whereas that two year yield continuing to climb yield curve flattening 2.86% on that two year now is people expect the fed to have to be more aggressive with their moves even as longer term growth projections come in and that 30 year really standing out to me after an auction yesterday that was stronger than expected yields down 3.15% Tom Again people are gravitating back to duration given what they expect for growth It really interesting seeing as doctor Larry and mentioned here doctor Larry and mentioned here Lisa this idea of looking out to the second the third the fourth inflation report from now is really key Right and so that's why each perspective report becomes increasingly important Not only for the U.S. but also for the Euro region Yesterday the ECB came out indicating they were going to hike rates at the next meeting leaving a 50 basis point rate hike on the table They are ending their bond purchases and you get this weakness in the Euro and continuing to be even weaker against the dollar as a session goes on one O 5 83 against the dollar How much does this have to do with a lack of commitment to immediate and urgent movement by the ECB And how much does this have to do with what Jake foley was talking about to me Tom I think this is the key issue An existential threat to the Euro project given the fact that peripheral spreads are starting to blow out and you might see that continue because there is no concrete plan I do think that we're going to be talking about that more frequently Right now I'm going to pretend to be romaine bostick and get you some movers I'm going to just whip through this really quickly To me Credit Suisse nearing the lowest levels that we've seen in decades people talk about a possible combination with state street them saying it's nonsense The share is now $6 and 42 cents It speaks volume And Twitter shares I'm watching also closely We haven't really been talking about this Tom But they came out and called Elon Musk's bluff They basically said okay you want all this data on all of the spam Here you can have it But you can't use this as an excuse to avoid a $1 billion breakup fee And then I just wanted to look at the tech sector to take a look at some of the flight to quality and that we're seeing that green across the board Apple meta Facebook and Microsoft all up with meta up 6 tenths of a percent 7 tenths of a percent Again flight to safety This is big tech being a haven yet again at least on the margins as people worry about growth concerns Tom Lisa thank you So much Joining us now for an exceptionally important interview for those overweight or over hoped on technology Daniel Suzuki dance Suzuki works with Richard Bernstein definitive I can't say enough about Richard Bernstein's classic book style investing Dance Suzuki the style has been to own technology you people are heated the technology is a value trap Why is it I think that's right Tom I think there's a lot of people saying that at this point things have gotten cheaper and obviously they have you know but that's the argument you could have made three months ago 6 months ago And by the way that was the same argument that people were making from the very early stages of the tech bubble back in 2000 I think it always has to come back to the fundamentals You know profits liquidity and sentiment Sentiment from a sentiment evaluation perspective this remains the most expensive and still well loved part of the market Despite the volatility they're actually seeing inflows in many of these areas of the market They're probably the biggest beneficiaries of the liquidity boom You see it over the last few years So as liquidity goes the other direction that's going to become a major headwind for these areas And the part that the market's missing most I think is people have this impression that these are defensive areas of the market that they're not cyclical Obviously that was the case in the pandemic But if we go through a typical run of the mill kind of economic slowdown their earnings are going to slow down you're already starting to see that show up in some of the results And so it's probably not the time to jump in here Can you partition among tech or do you throw them all out with a bathwater Yeah obviously they have different characteristics and different cash flow profiles And different valuations right So but the thing that sort of aligns them all is that they were all huge beneficiaries of the riot up here over the last few years You know there was massive flows coming into all these parts of the market whether they were higher quality names or lower quality names and that boosted sort of rising tides for all these boats So as those tides come down you know I think that's going to sink all ships as well I mean you saw the same story back in 2000 Just go back and look at the Intel Cisco's Microsoft oracles sun microsystems of the time Those are the names back then that everybody said were rock solid industry leaders that weren't going away That didn't stop those stocks from going down 50 60 70 80% before finding a bottom And basically not making your money back for another ten to 15 years So I think that's the same story Remember that 6 or 7 years ago Apple traded at less than ten times It got up to like 30 times So that rising tide didn't matter if you were a good company or a bad company it benefited all these companies So what do we need to price in or what do we need to see to show that everything is priced in You could argue that Apple goes the way of a Nokia but surely you're not going to argue that Google ever has competition or Amazon Yeah I think to answer the second part of your question I think the.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"john farrow" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"On the commodities front WTI crude oil is lower just over $85 per barrel gold is also lower It's called $1845 an ounce Bitcoin That's the story here this morning It's about 7% lower today and now trades about $38,400 per token or so maybe an entry point for somebody just sitting down Let's get some more color on those equity markets Well bloomer markets correspond to pretty good Pretty what are you looking at Yeah Paul we have to start talking about Netflix because you know there's a real shortage of that this network Is your ticker down 20% I'm gonna quote John farrow here and saying that a company worth $225 billion should not be moving 20% Right In just the pre market this of course coming off of an outlook miss a Netflix expecting to add only 2.5 million users in the current quarter and to add on to that the company also reporting 18.2 million customers in 2021 that's down from 50% from 2020 So major hit for Netflix and you're seeing some of those other streaming companies taking a hit as well Roku is one of them are okay use the ticker down just shy of 4% Disney as well DIS is your taker down 3.6% Well I'm trying to download Ozark as we speak and it's just not working here so I don't know what's going on Is that your Netflix show of choice Right now yeah it's big I noted I'm gonna add that to my Netflix watching list on the good upside though We were talking about kind of the perhaps money coming out of those stay at home stocks peloton getting a little bit of a bid this morning PT ON is your ticker up 4.4% Remember it had a major hey yesterday down over 20% in its own stock This comes after a report that it was slashing costs to cope with slowing demand for its stationary bikes They're also planning to cut jobs Of course they're also posting revenue of $1.1 billion There was a time when you had to wait months to get a bike Yeah I mean months Oh yeah And you know it's just amazing Now they're cutting production on some of the bikes and the treadmills and things like that just amazing The times have certainly changed and to go really quickly back to Netflix here If you actually looked at a chart of Netflix and its market cap it made a literal round round trip in its chart all because of the squid game returns that boosted the stock since the 2020 pandemic and then now it's coming back I will see what it does at the open of course Moving on to another earnings story here this morning CSX the railroad down just shy of 4% It's called cheshi systems back in the day when we trade it When I traded railroad stocks chessy system Noted Fun fact you're Friday fun fact folks Fourth quarter profits Are you sure the running railroad I traded for Marvin gardens which usually never worked out Is they called reading or reading Ready Oh really Yeah Yeah She's like from a foreign country That's Texas I know I know It is the Republican Party I know I even say Houston not Halston You scandal Baltimore in Ohio Yes And how you would trade from my mother was smarter than me She would always go for Illinois For me I just go in circles until I create no idea We're talking about monopoly Yeah There we go Give me some credit Anyway CSX I'll wrap it up here Fourth quarter profit and revenue beat overshadowing by a miss in this operating ratio a measure of the railroads efficiency You don't need those road efficiency numbers from an hour I love them But revenue ten miles RTN that was a basis for your earnings model for the railroad companies how much revenue did they generate from moving a ton of freight over one mile Oh interesting There you go That's your modeling tip of the bacon You and I just leave and you can do it Yeah exactly We should do that for charge of the day Tom We should Pretty good to thank you so much greatly appreciate it We said good morning to all of you Bloomberg surveillance futures negative 23 Dow futures here down which means that you know we probably have to talk about Netflix Yes it seems to be the theme this morning It's actually really interesting and I just had a raging debate with Barry Ritz on this ether rug enough joints as we pick up the pieces of Netflix Keith does the company have an obligation to maybe sort of kind of like suggest to the sell side to the 51 analysts on the Bloomberg that follow Netflix to maybe suggest this quarter doesn't look that good That's the understatement of the year yet So the fourth quarter actually was much better than feared I think what's really spooked all of us has been the worst I think it's the worst of the worst case scenario for the one Q guide And that's about 60% lower than consensus but I think really what everybody was kind of hoping for was some kind of return to a predictable pattern of growth and that's obviously not happening Why is a predictable pattern of growth not happening Because typically if you look at a pre-pandemic year the first quarter kind of sets the tone for the whole year So you have the service typically adding anywhere from about 6 million to about 8 to 9 million subscribers in a regular year That's about 30% of their entire years additions And now if you extrapolate and you take this two and a half million and you kind of model it out for the whole year you basically get under 10 million And that just does not work for the Netflix story The Netflix model is predicated on about at least 25 million subscriber additions per year And this is what kind of throwing everybody off And to kind of amplify these problems further is the whole margin story They were guiding to about 300 basis points of margin improvement every year And now you suddenly have them walking that back a little bit for 2022 and actually kind of guiding them Jump in here I'm talking to two experts who ranging out and Paul Sweeney to both you and Paul pick up the conversation Are they wandering back to negative free cash flow because I don't think so No I think this is a profitable business We've seen it in the U.S. for a long time But is this just a simply a question of the programming expenses rising faster than maybe the revenue because of subscriber growth is slowing Is that the kind of the story So on the margin side Paul the operating margin underperformance is really just more effects issue They said that that's going to hit revenue Just the fact that the U.S. dollar has strengthened so much that is going to cause about a $1 billion impact on the revenue line And that's really what's affecting the margin guidance But really what it's come down to your point about free cash flow I think they still have a lot of operating leverage in the model So I think this will be a sustainably free cash flow positive story I just think it's going to take us longer to get there because initially when we kind of modeled out this company we thought about a billion and a half dollars in free cash flow in 2022 I think it might take a little bit longer to kind of get there and we're not necessarily going to see that huge ramp up So I think subscriber growth definitely decelerating it's going to be at least I think another three to 6 months before we get some clarity I'm binging Ozark this weekend just let me know right now Keith what does this mean for the kind of the streaming business overall I know some of the other stocks Roku and Disney taking a little bit of.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"john farrow" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"The market's moving the last ten minutes John a real deterioration in the tape Yeah tell him the NASDAQ 100 down more than 200 now negative 1.4% And if Bill Dudley formerly at the New York fed and now if Bloomberg opinions on if he's right and the fed funds rate needs to peek three to 4% in that range that I think is fair to say we're not done here Tom I think it's fair to say ten years don't peek at one 80 right now one 76 92 If you're part of global Wall Street if you're just worried about your retirement plan you need to stay with us for the next ten minutes RJ Gallo with us on fixed income Francisco blanche scheduled to join as well on a $100 a barrel oil John farrow the zeitgeist over the weekend you were out front on it with a NASDAQ leading the way But suddenly a deterioration was because of what Dudley said I don't think it's because of what dumpty says but what Dudley says is part of the broader conversation Tom How far does this fed need to push it to tighten financial conditions And when we think about trying to financial conditions that's not an undesired fallout Right Of what we're talking about here That could be the objective for this Federal Reserve Not an undesirable fallout of what they're doing Tom an objective And that's different Pushing against a caution here is that if you do get a higher yield global financial step in and buy America Lisa bramos those auctions are actually more important now as we move into January Wow I'm so excited that you're getting excited about the bond options that we have coming up Threes tens on Wednesday And onward honestly I'm still trying to get my head around the idea of a three to 4% fed funds rate as Bill Dudley was talking about And this idea that the rate would have to be that high of an inflation rested at two and a half to 3% How does negative real yield play into this How does that global backdrop of demand that you were just talking about Tom Play into the likelihood of treasury yields getting back up to what they used to be decades ago And John breaking news and this is just a tea leaf folks and the idea of a new rate regime John you see the Central Bank of Romania the numbers don't matter but the answer is they go up in rate from two to two 25 and with the exception of turkey that's the direction of travel for global rates for most central banks And to Lisa's point on the right market negative real yield is part of the issue for the likes of Bill Dudley Because they're so deeply negative in real terms it means they've got more work to do If you believe the fed needs to do something about inflation then they need to get to a positive real rate And they need to get there quicker And I want to be clear about the words of Bill Dudley He's been calling for this Tom for the last 6 months plus I remember talking to him going into the summer and he raised this as a key risk When the fed had to move they're going to have to move sooner and quicker and take it to a place that people aren't thinking about And Tom they're still not thinking about it That is an outlier call that a fed's run rate gets anywhere near three 4% Most people somewhere between two and two 50 And radio and TV we need a data check to start John I'm going to note vix in 19 level just breaches 21 showing some of that morning tension John what do you see in the data And that's that 100 breaking down a couple of hundred points on we're down more than 1% Negative 1.25% Call it negative 1.26 In a bond market yields did breach on ten to one 80 briefly Came back to one 76 74 But the fact of the matter is we've taken out last year's highs We've done it really quickly Standard of the year at one 50 Tom had a 25 basis point move last week and last week alone It will be interesting to see We start strong as our Francisco blanche scheduled to be with us RJ Gallo joins us right now with Federated Hermes RJ you're in the fixed income space Are you stealed for a bear market Price down yield up in your world Yes time we are We've been short duration for well over a year to significant degrees We felt that the simple fact of the matter was that the inflation was too hot for the feds transitory argument that argument is now largely ended The fed has done a significantly hawkish pivot We now have X FOMC members on your show talking about how hawkish they're going to have to be and we're in fact the fed might have gone wrong Three to 4% the range that Bill dunley is talking about arce I just wonder your response to that you heard it Your reaction Pretty striking As you just mentioned it's well beyond consensus I think it's hard to fully know I think the fed might have made an error in the fundamental change in their framework in the midst of a hurricane When they went to flexible average inflation targeting which was inherently dovish the world was facing greater uncertainty around public health than in a hundred years And when.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"john farrow" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Just mentioned we're gaining about 37 points right now the S&P 500 up to yet another all time record high Every day this week is green Today every day They will send stocks Can't fall Well they can It's just that they haven't been doing it lately I mean there are two themes that really come out of today's trading One John Tucker kind of alluded to with this Pfizer COVID-19 pill I mean we're seeing some real moves in response to that Pfizer up more than 9% John mentioned Moderna which is down 19 and a half percent and then you also have Merck which they're looking for authorization for a pill that may be less effective frankly and those shares down about 9% But then there's what's going on in travel socks The COVID-19 developments clearly a part of that results out of air-b-n-b and Expedia also part of that air-b-n-b up 11% Expedia up 9 and a half percent You look across online travel companies airlines cruise lines you name it And you've got gains So I mean there's plenty going on Even beyond that but those two things really emerge from today's trading All right Dave Wilson senior stocks editor Thanks very much for that Now as I said labor secretary Marty Walsh speaking to Bloomberg news John farrow leads that interview Let's listen in Thank you team Secondary whilst joining us now on the labor market report we got a little bit earlier this morning Dan in Washington D.C. secretary well it's great to have you with us on the program sir I just wanted to start right here with a wage story We heard from the president of the United States in the past week on this Just listening with me about what he had to say Take a listen The wages.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"john farrow" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"That I think actually could be quite interesting. The questions that he will get asked, of course from Mr McKee. I'm sure we'll ask very pointed question about the modalities around that tapering process that's going to be important for the marketplace. Because right now they can sense asses pretty firm around this idea that tapering will look like it did back in 2000 and 14. It's not entirely clear to me that we should be so confident that it will play out in exactly the same way. There's certainly a possibility that the data could be strong enough, particularly on the labor market side of the equation. Where we actually get a faster taper than what we had back in 2014, Matt. How important is the CPI print today for the Fed and for frankly, your call when it comes to Treasuries. Lisa, I'm really glad you asked that question because I do think that this number is important in particular what we see developing an owner's equivalent rent, so the rental components of the CPI basket we think will continue to show strength. And ultimately, even though you the transitory components of the basket, like used car prices will almost certainly come down. We think that those could be offset to a certain extent but an important extent. By the continued rise in owners equivalent rent. What's more important for our call, we think is how all of this inflation data ends up affecting inflation expectations from here and on data set that we got yesterday from the New York Fed showing that inflation expectations have reached a new high in their survey. That to us is the real key for the tapering process. How quickly it evolves. That's what we think of fluency. Participants are particularly focused on today Series high high since 2013. I took note of that as well. I think many of us did not. Let's get to the call, then high yields stronger dollar Can you walk me through the stronger dollar? Absolutely, you know, the higher yields story in the United States, for example, can't occur to the extent that perhaps most investors would like to see you'll dries without Europe participating, but in these early stages of this process that we think is going to play out. We see a decoupling between us interest rates and those in Europe. In other words, we see US interest rates rising relative to interest rates in Europe and as that decoupling process plays out. Particularly in real interest rates that we think will put a boost to the U. S dollar vis a vis the euro. So we remain bearish on euro dollar. John. Our current target is 1 14. We were targeting 1 17 before it got to that target. We've reassessed. We think it can go further. So we're targeting 1 14 on euro dollar Matt home back. Thank you, sir. My cousin from my mom's side. We can do the side by side Troops side by side. My cousin from my mom's side Mass. Mom, my auntie. Seriously, seriously. Yeah. Matt Hornbeck over at Morgan Stanley. I've been very open about that over the years. Well, you can see we grew up together Vacations in America that would come To the UK when we were younger from Morgan, Stanley. Matt told me everything I know about the bond market used to bully me when I was a kid. Okay for Treasurys. Treasure is for those on radio. They're wearing the exact same outfit. They've got the same classes story. You know what we planned this today? It's gonna catch up, mate. Talk soon. Matt Hornbeck, Morgan Stanley, head of global macro strategy on this bond market, this FX market to time looking for a stronger dollar and high yields. And speechless, John. I had no idea didn't know that. Well, you know something? You ever look at the Morgan Stanley disclaimers. You know, he doesn't own the shares and at the bottom and says, I'm related to John Farrow. Yes, it will read the small print. I didn't read the Morgan Stanley shares either For that reason, because Mats over there, Joan, look, look..
Bloomberg Surveillance
Is Amazon making any money from Prime Day?
"Watch some in in London with this right now on Amazon prime day man John Farrow took me to task tide pods laundry detergent is usually thirty to fifty eight and they're giving it away to John for all right now for twenty two dollars seventy nine cents that's like you know thirty percent off thirty five percent how do they do that map block somewhere they make any money on Amazon prime day when John Farrell gets out the Bloomberg charge card yeah well may be known as much as they usually do but also I mean I think that's gonna be a mix of Amazon and the Browns and sells promoting the stuff I for me I think this these two days as it now is farmers and is much more about raising profile of the prime membership because there have been a whole bunch of studies that show that prime members spend way more on the platform the non prime members I think the last research I saw suggested was about fourteen hundred dollars a year on average for prime member compact about six hundred dollars for non prime members say the more people they can get state prime memberships is going to be better in the long term for business I think taking a beyond just the retail stuff when you've got this in the apple pushing into TV in the coming months you know it's kind of more important for the kind of broad a range of services they're offering to eat so Matthew I mean it's not just Amazon it seems like in a wal Mart's got a big sales day blitz target we know Ali Baba from China's got their singles day there's a lot of competition out there on the retail sales how does Amazon fairing yeah we can we can I think I think that they're doing pretty good mean I guess what yeah if you look at is in sales through the year Q. two isn't a big split it still key for whether you get that real big retell blip into Christmas I think this is kind of helpful for them from a kind of momentum perspective but it's not the be all and end all on us I think for them it's more about just kind of raising profile of the prime concept but overseas successful enough that you've had these big brown this Walmart and everybody else feel that they need to do something because that gonna suffer more pain from the success thousand jets if they don't do something so I think that's props more the sense of how the how much kind of retail foot full they kind of socket on these couple of days some of you I know it it's big here Amazon prime this big here in the U. S. gives a sense of what it's like in the UK and Europe so for sure you can yeah it's it's pretty big I mean you know over the weekend huge amount of advertising yeah on kind of radio print ready making people aware of these this couple days in the kind of office you can get I'd say let's let's say props on the continent just because you know Amazon on the whole kind of online shopping thing is is is a little bit behind as it as it often is on these things there were talking to Matt Miller in Berlin idea today and you know he didn't really get the sense of being a huge amount of promotion in Germany on this one so if official the U. K. as big a big deal let's say props on the continent but it's still important to their elasticity in raising the annual fee on prime I mean when the sell side or Bloomberg intelligence looks at what is it ninety nine dollars a year yeah I think you sound I think it might be a hundred twenty now okay so they can creep in it yeah right do we know where their limit is where the social women is on that price my answer is we don't have a clue I don't think we do I mean for so we don't actually know how many customers they've they've got on prominent I think lost it just pays a set the about a four hundred million globally so you know we don't have any talk the mystic modifications to me is still seems like amazingly good value now as a in the U. K. it costs seventy nine pounds for the year for which you get you
Bloomberg Surveillance
U.S. Nears Bull-Run Milestone
"Negative, it's an? Interesting market isn't it Tom record bull market run depending on when you think the bull markets dancing and then just a record, high in yesterday's session a record high that not many people really discussing because which, rounding in politics again Well we we I mean it's news and again for our, global audience historic moment of this for those of a certain vintage is just unreal I mean it's just extraordinary for those of us that we're in The mistake made in markets being conditioned by previous events I mean there are, so many analysts and strategists investors still conditioned by the. Financial crisis, and they, missed. A ton, of upside because of it totally agree hundred percent agree And He's just not that I'm going to make a call in the, market but I will say, John what was the market reaction back to the? Instances you just, alluded you're going into a recession, in we didn't realize the amplitude of the collapse of manufacturing. America but, again from a political oversight, over it wasn't. Linked. Okay in my, opinion it wasn't like As seventy four, things are loud Points out that they are extremely empathic parallels to look. At Nixon and the seventy degrees and if you wanna decent explanation as, to why they were so different forget the politics and just focus on the economy in the one thousand nine hundred fifty s Let me in the nineteen ninety one hundred percent agree and that's why you have different outcomes But. Also the correlate of nature is tighter to. GDP nominal GDP, and such versus the political Mellstrom there's no question in my mind on that and right now you know to, borrow. A. Phrase from a guy who lives. Over above the Gucci, stores to make America great economic yeah At the moment at the. Moment the volatility in, the extreme headlines on the front page of the newspaper don't infect this bull market too much futures. Are Dan just four on the s. and. P. five hundred, Dow futures negative just twenty three NASDAQ one hundred features pretty much unchanged we down just
Bloomberg Surveillance
Eli Lilly to take animal health unit public
"Good morning everyone Pimm FOX, and Tom keep from our studios. In your John, Farrow down, in Washington ninety. Nine point one FM he's gone off to his other franchises Pinhas other properties is they say His, other property, doing TV show right now is a good thing. Talking about Turkish lira crushed Turkish near a four point eight nine week. Or Turkish lira they didn't raise rates renmimbi a little bit weaker swell lifted the market futures up. Ten pin what are you. Focused, on well since you mentioned Turkey I was, interested in, the. Exit of mess at Osceola from the German national team football soccer team very good soccer. Football equals the same. Thing in some places he said that. He quit over racism and disrespect Yeah, he said that when. He wins he's considered German when, he loses yeah, he's considered an immigrant and this all had to. Do with a picture in which he was standing next to the president of Turkey used to air to one in the news today again Turkey with the new regime the new financial regime Turkey saying no we're not, going to raise rates and police, a market so the lira. Weakening out as well we've lots to talk about. This morning right now were their equity. Report we value David Wilson David elite with alphabet you got something better alphabet is as I mean the shares are up four, and a half percent remember. They have two classes of stock in the s. and p. five hundred and indeed the owner. Of Google reported second quarter? Earnings, revenue that beat the, average analyst estimates in a Bloomberg survey in bear in mind they came up with the profit figure, that omitted, the record five billion dollar fine imposed by the. European Union even after that penalty alphabet made money In the quarter they have Verizon of two percent the mobile phone companies profit and sales last quarter surpassed the highest estimates, subscriber growth also be projections, and Verizon raised its revenue forecast, for, the year and we should note AT and t.'s results, are due out after the close of. Course they're the biggest US competitor of Verizon and that stock up about. Three quarters of a, percent at the moment. Verizon one of three companies are, the Dow Jones, industrial average to report the others United Technologies we. Know them for jet engines elevators other products there little changed in early trading and three m dowana half percent even though they're second quarter results were just ahead of estimates then you see the effects of higher commodity, prices on a couple of companies, one of them whirlpool down. Ten percents in early trading the appliance makers second. Quarter results missed projections and Kimberly Clark Tissues diapers. Other consumer products down two and. A half percent they, cut their profit forecasts for, this year to reflect commodity costs as well as currency moves Lockheed Martin by contrast up two and, a half percent the defense contractors second quarter earnings and sales beat estimates and. They're a, full year profit forecast top the highest projections so they're doing well then you turn to pharmaceuticals. Biogen up seven, and, a half percent he drugmaker beat second quarter profit and revenue forecast and raised, its full-year. Estimates ally Willie's up three and, a. Half percent they're spinning off their animal health unit at Lonzo either side to, do it after a months-long study lily second quarter results beat. Estimates as well then you had a take under you might say the banking. Business right Sino-US finance based in Georgia they agreed to, buy Florida's FCB. Financial holdings were two point, nine billion dollars Stock both companies shares taking a head sign of us down seven. And a half percent and FCB lower by, eight and a half percent Quest Diagnostics time about. Stocks are down lower by five percent revenue at the clinical testing company trail the average estimate. By the most more than five years earnings also miss. Projections on a couple of, notable gays to finish this off Tom public group up seven percent the advertising company raises. Full-year revenue forecast after. Second quarter sales topped estimates and we've seen disappointments in that business. From Omni com as well as Francis Publicis Groupe so a real contrast there and Harley Davidson you may recall President Trump. Calling them because of their plans to move production stocks up four percent in early trading earnings for, the second quarter unexpectedly rose revenue topped with. That said they did cut their profit margin forecast, for this year, to? Reflect the tariff imposed by..
Bloomberg Surveillance
Stocks drop broadly as new China tariffs rekindle trade-war jitters
"Fox in for john farrow tom keene in london we are two hours away from the opening bell on wall street let me get you updated on the news that you need to know at this hour investors around the world are selling stocks after the us fired a new shot in its brewing trade war with china the trump administration releasing a list of two hundred billion dollars worth of trade tariffs on chinese goods china is vowing to retaliate no details yet as to the exact nature of the retaliation and the bidding war over britain's top paytv company it is increasing as the bid for twenty by twenty first century fox's increasing for sky tv at values the company now at thirty two billion dollars that is twelve percent more than the offer that was made by comcast of course they're all in a bidding more disney comcast for those assets of twentieth century fox and trench coats not loved so much the shares a burglary falling as much as five percent in london the luxury goods makers saying that revenue rose just three percent in the second quarter as it trails rivals in the all important china market all right it's time to find out what's going on in the world we've got to mr michael barr mr bar tom thank you very much nato secretary general jens stoltenberg says he agrees with president trump that nato allies should contribute more to the alliance in terms of defense spending but he also defended nato saying that there is strength in unity and while talking to cnn ahead of the summit stoltenberg was asked about his earlier breakfast meeting with president trump extent orange juice toll stunts all fruit solid on good breakfast.
Surveillance
Aramco is world's most profitable oil company: Bloomberg
"And on bloomberg tv you can of course read this on the bloomberg terminal the aramco accounts inside the world's most profitable company a stunning stunning pace this morning tom to go with the news well there's a huge news flow but this this is an investigative piece really resets any debate on global hydrocarbons and we congratulate our team on that effort futures up six ten futures of fifty eight vic showing the good week john farrow's losing money twenty one on the viks down eight point zero nine point four zero points stay with us this is bloomberg if you run a small business you know there's nothing small about it dell's small business technology advisers are here to help with solutions tailored to your business get the latest technology like dell laptops with intel core processors plus with free shipping and a price match guarantee you know you're always getting the best deal talk to a dell small business advisor today at eight seven seven by dell that's eight seven seven by dell.