21 Burst results for "John Farrell"
Bloomberg Radio New York
"john farrell" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"And Stellantis as being a very positive outcome of when the parties really in good faith and stay at the collective bargaining table. What we are doing is good faith negotiations leading to workers getting a fair share of the gains in these industries at a time when american companies are really doing so allow well brainer, the National Economic Council director managing the message from the White house, I'm going to suggest they got to be happy. Good morning Bloomberg surveillance, Lisa Brown and Tom King, John Farrell. It's sort of like you know when they get ready for the balloons at Thanksgiving where the night before they lift the balloons on Central Park West. I went over once and once, it's very very cool how they do that. I went over when you get could close to the balloons. Yeah before they cordon it off and then the crowds were kind of sectioned off. Farrell is so all in Halloween. Oh yeah. That he's like takes you know that's why he's been on a cruise and he came back. He says I can't come I'm in. in preparation for his costume or whatever. So we're gonna expect some significant pictures tomorrow. He's going as Adele. He's got lots of ideas for will that. I say when you talk about the auto manufacturers and what happened yesterday, it does seem like a seven -week strike is largely over and you're seeing a relief rally in some shares. Solantis shares up for example. ADR up is going about 3 .3 % this morning even though they came out, reported earnings and said that they saw net revenue hit of about 3 billion euros from the work stoppages. So there are some feelings that there was some you know loss but not enough to really torpedo anything. We walked away from story the but Lisa very quickly here before we go to Gabriela Coppola. To me what's disappeared is a debate on EV. I mean the basic news flow on EV over the last three, five four, weeks has been okay everybody that wants one's bought one now what? And that's sort of an here like let's get back to work and make gasoline and diesel engines. There are a lot of questions here and I think their first question is just on a union perspective have workers gotten their fair share during the recovery as auto prices climbed at record levels. The second thing is how do US companies remain competitive with an emphasis on electric vehicle production when consumers don't all want them because they're outpriced or they're outranked. So there are these questions these competing goals and then it's wage or is the it other compensation like benefits like pensions some of the other things. We haven't covered this story all the distractions. Gabriella Coppola doesn't have that luxury out of Southfield Dearborn in Detroit. She is up to speed on a big American strike Gabrielle. Let's start there right now. How big is this strike? Well this was a historic strike that has it never happened that they struck all three companies at once and it was a very different strategy than you know in the past they would just take one like in 2019 GM they just went you know one automaker and took out all their plants, but this was almost 47 about about 45 ,000 47 ,000 people were on strike and different in total if you add up all the different plants that were struck. Do you feel that it's over? I mean if I got a Bloomberg headline GM reaches a tentative deal with UAW I guess it's Ford it's Chrysler and now GM is Is the strike over this morning? Well you know I think the leadership of the UAW and then the workers have to vote to ratify the agreement so it's technically not over but people are going back to work and I think for you know from early reactions it's safe from some of the workers at Ford who've seen the deal. People are really overjoyed I People think. can't believe what an incredible deal they got. I think they didn't get to find benefit pensions back or you know I'm not saying it was perfect and there's some people who still a lost lot you know maybe in 2007, 2009 they want everything back you know that's still going to be disappointing. But overall I think it's a pretty you know it's just an incredible deal for people. It's way, way better than what they got 2019. Gabrielle, there's a question about how much the UAW has support gotten outside of the union, right? Union membership doesn't really represent the bulk of electric vehicle production workers particularly not in Tesla and certainly not at other manufacturers outside of the Detroit Big Three in the U .S. How much does this actually give the UAW clout in negotiating for a swath of employees? I think it gives them the best shot they've had in a very long time maybe ever. That doesn't mean they're going to be successful but they do have I mean I think the union was negotiating with that goal in mind. You know we broke stories that talked about there was a magic number. They wanted able to be to show at least a 30 percent wage increase which they basically got if you add the 25 percent plus the inflation adjustment that they want. That was the thing they wanted to be able to bring to their car companies and especially at the bottom rung because you know the big issue with the UAW workers has always been that ever since the financial crisis there were two tiers and there were temp workers. So you know those great middle class jobs that are kind of the stuff of you know political speeches and things like that only part of the workforce had that. You know other people like if you're a temp worker I met people on the picket line that you know had started at 1567 an hour and they've been in that temporary status for years. Yeah. You know not getting profit sharing not getting 401k not getting the benefits of a full -time worker. This deal brings all those people up and I think that is going to be more attractive to you know temps at say you know Toyota or Volkswagen or Tesla or you know whatever. What about from the U .S. auto manufacturers competitiveness standpoint there is a concern of how U .S. automakers are going to compete with China for example when it comes to electric vehicles how concerned are people that
Bloomberg Radio New York
"john farrell" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Credit makes sense. But we don't need to have lower quality credit high yield. We can get good enough returns, we think, in the center of this distribution. And continue to respect the fact that the recession risk is two ways it could be better than our baseline, but it could be a lot worse. This is another way saying I don't like emerging markets right now. Can you build on that a little bit? So I think we are scaling into emerging markets. We have emerging market positions, select FX positions, select local or dollar based EM, so I think that it's going to depend on your asset allocation. But for us, I think at this stage, core fixed income very good yields of a 5% for core bond funds looks very attractive as we get more confidence in terms of the shape of the recovery and or the path for the fed. You can scale into EM over time. And Ian was earlier hiking. They were earlier in the cycle the yields are quite attractive. So I think there's good opportunities there. I've got one final question for you. You're a bond guy, so naturally you're worried about something. Tom Lee shouldn't have talked about this over the last couple of weeks. This is the third year of pandemic economics. And every single year, we seem to have got it wrong. Big time. Is there one thing that you're worried about right now that you think people might be getting wrong as we go into year three of this? So the thing I am worried about is the possibility of higher inflation. So to relate it to the pandemic, longer time for healing in terms of all the disruptions we've had and stubbornly high inflation that takes more from central banks to cure, it's not the baseline, but I think that is a big risk. And I think if you look at the last couple of years, no one's won any prizes for their inflation forecast during this period and the baseline is the baseline, but you need to think very carefully about these risk cases and the one which would worry me at night is stubbornly high inflation settling well above to three or 4% type core inflation. And if that happens, that is going to be very interesting in terms of financial markets and volatility and Andrew always a clinic. Good to see you in person. Andrew boss there, pimco, TK, always a worry if you're a bond investor. There's one for you for the year ahead. John Farrell, thank you so much. Appreciate that. Fish is negative 14. Please stay with us. This is Bloomberg. Good morning. Focus
Bloomberg Radio New York
"john farrell" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Savannah from London from New York this morning in Washington, our Jennifer Jacobs and amery Horton got confirming FrontRunner status in top contender status of the vice chairman of the Federal Reserve Laos brainerd to be considered to advise the president in the position now held by Brian deese. This will be most most political leaving a senior and Lisa I would just say different vice chairman post at the fed Lyle brainard as vice chairman is different than Richard clarita is vice chairman. Was number two at the Federal Reserve. She is a number two, and she's been pushing back on the margins against this feeling that the fed has to go much further and is talking about the balance of risks to the downside in terms of economic pain. So what does that do if she leaves and who replaces her? And then there's also the questions of some of the political interference that some people are going to raise. It becomes a new debate, but she's going if she was to go back and The Washington Post was suggesting that the secretary of commerce Gina remained or maybe has said she doesn't want to do that that's speculation at this time, but Jacob's and harder in her reporting here on someone who is comfortable with policy, working with Bill Clinton on the same council is a very young academic out of wesleyan. I believe she was teaching at MIT at the time. I don't recall that. But I would really suggest that policy is where she's more comfortable than worrying about dynamic stochastic general equilibrium theory. Whatever you want to say about her, she is a very respected academic mind and policy mind. So people might get a lot of support behind her, even though perhaps they're going to be questions around the fed leadership and who are places her and what that means for the Federal Reserve. Brainer is FrontRunner to run the Biden economic council on the data front of deterioration through the morning Microsoft leading that deterioration after up nicely, negative 33 on SPX with Microsoft visiting two 36, even two 35 yields come in, John Farrell making note of that from London. There's just simply no question about that. It is earning season quickly, Lisa on individual names. Yeah, well, I just want to tell you this that Boeing just crossed. And their fourth quarter adjusted free cash flow is $3.13 billion versus an estimate of 2.89 billion. So just to give you a sense, we are getting a Motley picture. I keep going back to this with a lot of companies talking about pretty good earnings, at least so far, although with a bit of a softer picture ahead, Microsoft key among those yesterday saying that they are expecting a bit of a deceleration in the growth in the Azure platform. Those shares lower by 2.4%. Gaining back from some of the lows earlier this morning, Tesla shares down 1.1% ahead of earnings later today. A lot of people looking not only about Tesla's sales, why they've been discounting their vehicles, but also will Elon Musk talk about the next phase in the Twitter saga when he steps down who's going to replace him in AT&T came out this to me is oddly interesting because AT&T actually gave a disappointing forecast going forward and this follows on what we heard from Verizon yesterday, and yet the shares are up 2.3%, which raises this question of how much bad news has already been baked in. How much pessimism has already been established in the levels of certain names? Well, we'll have to see on that. I would say the shock to me as a shock is to anybody worldwide who follows aviation, like John farrow, is to see that the headline from the Boeing company is out of Arlington, Virginia, that will be a shock across all of my youth in the middle age from Seattle to Chicago to outside Washington. That describes a travel experience of John farrow over the last number of weeks. He joins us now with a really important interview conversation with Jane foley. Thank you, tika I have to say the travel has been pretty smooth over the last week or so. Maybe I've been lucky. Let's frame the last 12 months. This is important. We've been wrestling worldwide with inflation and central banks have made a move. The ECB has gone to two 50. The Bank of England has gone to three 50. The Federal Reserve has gone to four 50. The bank of Japan, the BOJ has done absolutely nothing. Is that going to change this year? Jane Farley of rabbit bank, alongside us in the beating heart of foreign exchange, James fantastic catch up with you. Let's start there. Sub zero at the BOJ. Is that going to change this year? You know, it might, but it might not. And I think that's a really crucial crucial point here because if we saw the meeting in January, we saw speculators all egging on for a change in New York have control. And what do they get? Nothing. And I think this is the risk, the market's now assuming that we're going to get there. Replacement for Corona in April, of course, as he steps back. And there is something that we're going to get maybe a significant change in policy. We might get a change in policy, but it may not be significant. And that's the point we might get at another two week kit to your curve control. We may get an interest rate. We may not, because if you look at the time frame for the bank of Japan, they're probably not going to be hiking interest rates next year when, for instance, the fed could be easy in other central banks. So you know you've got a limited time frame, but then you look at the fundamentals. At
Bloomberg Radio New York
"john farrell" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"And Jonathan Farrell, John Farrell on assignment. We're looking forward to his effort right now. We're going to get to Jane foley and foreign exchange here in a bit, but we'll Simone foxman joins us now from a stadium 30 minutes north of Doha where it is 89° and it's in the 80s I guess here through the next number of days. Simone on Sunday it is 60,000 people to see the first kick of I believe it's cutter and Ecuador. Exactly how hot will it be in the stadium? The last time I looked at the forecast, it was supposed to be I think the high 80s outside, but in the stadium, it's going to be pretty cool. A lot of these stadiums like albeit that you see behind me. They have air conditioning technology. They've been built that way, even pretty efficient technology. I mean, I've been in some stadiums actually in the middle of August, and they were still tolerable, not cool. I understand Simone that for a girl from Columbia University of New York, you've never tasted Budweiser. I get that. I understand they don't serve it north of like a 108th street. What are they going to do in this uproar about no alcohol, but they're going to serve bud zero. Where does that move to a Sunday first kick? Yeah, so this is in a big about face for organizers. They had initially said that fans would be able to purchase Bud Light within the stadium perimeter outside the stands themselves. Now they've turned around and said, you can't do that. And in fact, so no alcohol is going to be sold anywhere within the stadium perimeter. Alcohol is a really hot flash point for Qatar and has been throughout the preparations for this event because this is a conservative Muslim country. Public drunkenness, illegal, even alcohol drinking pretty taboo. There's a lot of restrictions on where you can get alcohol. So folks are going to be able to buy alcohol and Bud Light in the fan zones. They're going to be able to go to restaurants, attached to hotels and buy it, hotels themselves, most of them allow it, but it's not going to be allowed in the stadium perimeter. And that's something, you know, that really upsets fans. Also, the fact that it's being announced about 48 hours before kick-off. Well, Simone, this praises a larger issue about the culture shift and how this is really a unique World Cup given that it's being held in Doha has been held in the Middle East for the first time. And some of the controversy around how it got there when it got shifted from those summer to the winter. How much is this an inclusive World Cup with a buy in of everyone versus one that still has fractures around the edges
Bloomberg Radio New York
"john farrell" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Smooth. There's no question about it. The gentleman from Kentucky can absolutely get it done and for that matter, John, I thought axel Weber was smooth as well. Your thoughts, John Farrell, on what we heard from the leader of the bundesbank. Well, tell him I think a lot of what we're experiencing right now is some of the stuff he brought into about more than ten years ago that once you go down this path, it's very difficult to get back out of it. From the ultra accommodative to where we are right now, it is indeed historic. What I've heard this morning folks is this is a once in 40, even 50 year moment for all within financing global Wall Street. If you're part of global Wall Street, this is must listen. It is rare that you speak to anyone in the economics who actually chapter 23 of the textbook, which is on finance and bonds. There's a governor of the Dutch Central Bank and is truly expert. It linking in economics to the fixed income of space, including British yields at 5%. Governor, thank you so much for joining Bloomberg. Thank you today. I've got a first go to the ECB questions. Can you explain to me how the ECB can become more restrictive, raise rate 75 basis points with a nominal GDP construction of the continent? Where do they have the animal spirit to withstand ever higher interest rates? Well, I think to answer that question, you first have to sort of look at where we are in terms of the starting point. We're still way below neutral. So policy is still accommodative. So I think it is no regret that we have to end this accommodative phase of policy. And I mean, your question of how deep should we go into restrictive territory once we get there? Well, we crossed that bridge when we get there. It is original right now you're in accommodate that are also accommodative, however you want to phrase it as well. What happens next after the presumed rate increase over the next year? Well, I mean, our president has stated very clearly that we are currently in the face of normalizing interest rates. That means taking them to neutral. Unfortunately, nobody knows with any level of precision unusually. But I've been saying that we need at least two more significant
Bloomberg Radio New York
"john farrell" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Decision is one minute away with Tom Keene and Lisa rabbid Sam Jonathan farrow going into it future as positive about a tenth of 1% on the S&P 500 on the NASDAQ 100 unchanged Euro dollar term. One zero zero one 8 were positive about a tenth of 1%. Pro tip follow John Farrell, the dynamic here that matters is to watch the outlier, which is John, Italy. It'll be interesting to see how Italy paper moves here. And that spread got into this decision about 227 basis points, Lisa, 50 or 75 with 30 seconds away. And whether or not it's going to matter, right? A lot of people saying the consensus is 75. You are seeing a bit of Euro strengthening ahead of this. Can it stick regardless of what the ECB does in the face of some of these energy problems? I'm proud of a news conference as well. We're looking for some forecasts and I think it's important to recognize this. We're all talking about a recession, aren't we? In Europe, it's not there yet. It might be in one now, haven't seen the data yet. Will the ECB actually forecast one in that news conference in 30 minutes? And if they don't, what does it mean for their credibility at a time when everybody else seems to be forecasting one? The second's a wife and that right decision we are looking for 75, most people though think it's a coin toss between 50 basis points or 75 from the CCB. The decision moments away, leaks out seconds late, this is not unusual. There it is. 75 basis points from the ECP. The depot rate goes from zero to 75, the marginal lending facility goes to one 50, the main refinancing rate goes to one 25. So that is a 75 basis point hike from the European Central Bank. The reaction in the market looks like this on Euro dollar. Slightly positive by a tenth of 1% Euro dollar right now. One zero zero one 8. I was talking about the spread between Italy and Germany at the moment. That's about two 27. So Lisa, 50 or 75, it's 75. And the question is going to be what they signal going forward as a lot of people are already pricing in another 75 basis point of rate hikes through the remainder of the year. What does this mean for assets you are seeing a bit of a pop as you said to the Euro. But how much do they buffer this with some recognition of the pain that is being conferred on the Euro region as a result of the higher energy prices, as well as suddenly the fact that negative yields zero rates has absolutely evaporated. The working through the statement we're going to forecast here, looking ahead the ECB staff have significantly revised up their inflation projections and inflation is now expected to average 8.1% in 2022. 5.5% in 2023 and 2.3% in 2024. On the growth outlook, after a rebound of the first half of 22, recent data points were substantial slowdown in Euro area economic growth with the economy expected to stagnate later in the year and in the first quarter of 23. They go on to say very high energy prices are reducing the purchasing power of people's incomes and although supply bottlenecks are using, they're still constraining economic activity in addition. The adverse geopolitical situation, especially Russia's unjustified aggression towards Ukraine is weighing on the confidence of business and consumers. The outlook is reflected in the latest staff projections for economic growth, which have been revised down markedly for the remainder of the current year and throughout 23. I can give you that outlook now. They look for the economy to grow by 3.1% in 2022, 0.9% in 23, 1.9% in 2024. It's a 75 basis point high today. They're not forecasting a recession right now and they expect to raise interest rates again over the next few meetings. They're going to go meeting by mating, but Tom, I think if you get any criticism of the decision today, it might not be on the policy call. It may well be on the forecast because these forecasts are for growth. They are not for a recession as far as I can see. Well, there are forecasts and they're very political as well. Let's remember there's no statement in there on a war in Ukraine, which has a little bit to this because I haven't seen that as well. John, I love the elegance of getting away from data dependency and forward guidance where they just gracefully say there will be a meeting by meeting approach. They do it more elegantly than we do in math centric Washington. And this data is moving quickly. I believe we've got Maria today standing high in Frankfurt. It's been a while, Maria. I typically I'd spend some time welcoming you back, but we've got some news to cover. Go through the headlines for us. Yes, and Jonathan is 75 basis points. It was the obvious choice, but it was not a given because the debate around 75 for 50 basis points have really heated up in the days prior, remember some in the governing council were concerned about the idea of a full blown energy crisis, potentially hiking aggressively in the face of potentially a recession, which they don't refer to here. They talk about stagflation, but nonetheless, to me what it shows is that the hawks have it. It's really the hawks that control the governing council now and they really did feel at this point. There is a window to hike. The European Central Bank credibility is on the line here. You had to take or have to take decisive action here. Maria, who are the hawks besides the obvious bundes bank and the people of Germany. Who joins them this morning? I mean, we've seen this. It's the Dutch. It's also the Austrians. I guess we'll
Bloomberg Radio New York
"john farrell" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"I looked Leslie at this bond market and the supposed to react off the speech to borrow phrase from John Farrell. What if it's a nothing burger? What if nothing happens in the speech? Then what? Well, I think the market's really gone back to this June playbook. If you look really what's happened in terms of the projection, you know, we've gone from pricing it in July, because the 80 basis points of easing in 2023 now down to 35 basis points in 2023. And that in February, but in the latter part of the year, you know, we've moved sort of the march peak to that 3.8% fed funds rate, which is really not far right now from the fed terminal. So you kind of gone back to this June playbook and a lot of Powell's constituents and their hawkish report as somebody erased what he said in July FMC that we're currently in neutral. So I think the market is really priced standard taken out a lot of that pivot and gone back to that Judy playbook in terms of forward pricing. If it's a nothing event, I mean, you know, I think that you'll have that knee jerk reaction with yields coming down and spreads tightening just because people are concerned right now that he might leave more on the hawkish side. Leslie, we've got to leave it there. Thank you. Leslie falcone, the of UPS. What are you doing this morning? What are you looking at? What's making you laugh? I mean, 6° centigrade. I look at this. And I think this came up. I'm going to give credit to zero edge, but I really don't know who to give credit to. What if it's a nothing burger seriously? I heard that from Luke more of Aberdeen. That's Friday. Said the same thing could just well be boring. Could well be boring. Maybe it's one of these biggest historical things looking back over decades, you're not buying it at all. Two things. I hate the phrase nothing burger. I very strongly feel about this. I'm not interested. A burger is nothing in there. You
Bloomberg Radio New York
"john farrell" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"There? And end it with John Farrell. I don't know who made that decision, but we say, welcome to you. I'm Tom Kean alongside Lisa bramlet. We are not David Weston, but we've had so much fun here on a Friday to bring you Wall Street week on Friday. And of course, into the weekend, right now it is a joy to go into the trenches on Wall Street week of strategists and thinkers on Wall Street, adjusting in real time. Laurie calvasina is the RBC capital markets. She is exquisite as small caps in mid caps and also the gyrations of the market. A lot of good work there, bouncing off the work in economics of Tom porcelli. David Bianco is an institution far too young for the years on Wall Street. Deutsche Bank, and now with DWS group, America is so valuable. I think he walked out the door and they brought him back a second time. Two of you thrilled to have you on what is absolutely an oddest week in years. Laurie, we're equities removed from the turmoil in the other asset classes. I think they were a little bit this week, but frankly, I think they deserved a bit of a break after the year that we've had in the past couple of months that we've had. And look, I think investors on the equity side were also gearing up for earnings. And we were in a little bit of a holding pattern until we got to the end of the week. And financials, I mean, there was definitely interesting moves and financials today once we finally got through the house. You should all be back age this morning. David Bianco helped me there because in your research, you know, you say the banks are of interest, but the banks are all varied. Which kind of bank is where investments should be today. The big banks, the ones that have sticky deposit bases, the ones that will benefit from the fed hiking and the continued third hiking. So it's not comfortable to own banks if we're perhaps heading into a recession. But even if we do have a recession, this is not going to be a deflationary type of financial crisis. I think the credit costs will be well behaved and the banks will do fine. How much our financials and idiosyncratic story versus a story of macroeconomic strength really because that really was the feeling when JPMorgan came out and over time it became something different. Well, it's a good question. And I do think when you have, it's financials are always a macro story. It's very difficult for financials not to be a sensitive to the macro and purely idiosyncratic. However, what's happening in the macro situation right now is inflation and the fed hiking. So who's the only beneficiary of interest rates going up? It's banks. Everybody else is worried about that, not just in terms of slowing economy and earnings and PE pressure, but banks benefit, at least with higher earnings from higher interest rates. So given that backdrop, Lori, and given the fact that you said that really, stocks were somewhat immune to the volatility we were seeing in other asset classes. What are we pricing in? Is there a disconnect right now between the asset classes with stocks painting a much more sanguine picture? Look, stocks are pricing in a recession at this point in time. I mean, we've moved beyond kind of growth scare territory, which is where we were for the first part of the year. And now we've been down in around 25% from the peak or so. And your typical recession draw down on a median basis is 27. Your average drawdown is 32. So we're kind of pricing in that short shallow recession scenario. We're not typing in a typical recession. We're not pricing in a severe one. We're not pricing on an extended one. But I think the good news if we do have that short shallow recession in the back half of the year, the equity market got a lot of that damage out of the way early. Well, I joined a Friday evening and into the weekend as we get to continue with Laurie calvasina. And David Bianco as well. Again, we've got so much to talk about here over the hour. I can't say enough about the importance of speaking with Gregory Fleming as we will hear in a bit and again, professor summers was immensely prescient today on some of the images back in 1998. He says maybe panic less and much. It'll be interesting. Yeah, and that's certainly a theme as we try to chart a path. What did we say this week that it's not necessarily the question of whether we get a recession, but the path to get there in the path out of it to get back to that 2% inflation rate. We've got much more
Bloomberg Radio New York
"john farrell" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Television first in global business news. The markets matter and they are moving. Yields actually lower globally from New York to San Francisco. Headlines involving Twitter. From London to Hong Kong. It has been a week of huge gyration. The world turns to Bloomberg for market moving headlines. It's all eyes are on what's going on in the tech space. The dollar really taking control here. Bloomberg television. The Bloomberg business app in Bloomberg dot com. Check your local listings for the cable or satellite provider in your area. Market analysis that goes beyond the ordinary. Again, I learned another function for Matt Miller today. Bloomberg markets with poles weenie and Matt Miller. Why is this stock so unloved? Weekdays at 10 a.m. eastern on Bloomberg radio. Bloomberg Savannah, good morning, everyone. John Farrell, well deserved week off Kaylee lines in with Lisa bramwell at some time, thrilled you where the sun radio and television Sterling right now, one 22 80 flat off of the shock of those three small elections in England all against prime minister Johnson's future futures in the U.S. up 32 advancing nicely NASDAQ 100 up 1% because doctor hazy is with us, we'll go quickly here. Lisa, individual socks. Yeah, I'm looking at a number of earnings that came out in particular FedEx yesterday after the bell that really were much better than expected. FedEx share is up nearly 3% ahead of the open. Tom, fascinating to see why. It's actually seeing some of the labor shortages ease or saying profit margins come in a little bit better than expected kind of going against the gloom narrative that we've been talking about. Shopify bouncing a bit after rolling out some new features, but those shares down more than 70% so far this year. And Twitter share is getting a pop, although off earlier highs after reporting that they are going to give Elon Musk, whatever he wants to see in terms of data over the weekend. And Elon Musk trying to back out of the price tag that he had by asking for more. That's my interpretation because it is going to be interpretation. Friday, look in the banks this morning, given the fact that they're going to be rolling out buyback plans after the stress tests. Interesting to me that city is not participating. How much has been already baked in. JPMorgan Chase up for tenths of a percent Bank of America up also a similar amount. Tom, how much can these banks really reprise some of their value in the shares given the fact that they're down more than 20% as a wholesale so far year to date? And they still have billions of dollars of expected share buybacks coming. Lisa, thank you. So much. From Dudley and mckelvey to the era of hazi as Goldman Sachs research has been about acuity on this Friday, we're going to lose the numbers, the many numbers of January is work as teams work. But we're going to go to one number, which is your Q four number. They've marked down GDP from a Sterling 1.3%. To sub 1% that gives you some of the direction of the recession call, but at the same time, January is calls for a shallow recession. If we get a shallow recession, you quantify what it will mean for jobs in America. How does the magnitude of recession work into the dynamics of unemployment? Yeah, let's just be clear that we don't have a recession in our baseline forecast. We do have significantly below trend growth, 0.9%, only half the long-term trend pace. But our best guess is that we'll be below trend that rebalances the imbalance in the labor market and that ultimately also helps bring inflation back down. That said, there's a very significant risk of recession. I think it has gone up because it's very difficult to reduce labor demand without the deterioration feeding on itself and then ultimately culminating in a recession. So we're giving a one in three chance of a recession in the next 12 months. And it's close to 50 50, I think, over the next 2% of unemployment rate baked into a 2001 ish kind of recession. In 2001, it was a two percentage point increase that was the bottom end of the historical range if you look at all of the recessions in post war history, the top end of the range is 5 and a half percentage points. I think if we do have a recession, it's likely that it would be on the shallower end for two reasons. One private sector balance sheets are in better shape than at the end of previous business cycles. And two, I think while inflation is very high, I don't think it's as in trenched. Certainly not as entrenched in expectations as it was in previous high inflation episodes, 70s, early 80s. Yeah, and we just fed off a couple of weeks where people were ratcheting up their expectations for the terminal fed funds rate to about 4% as of at some point next year. And here we are looking at a huge rally in two year yields. Can you translate the rally that we have seen through an economics lens in terms of what people are forecasting and whether it seems plausible in your mind? Well, our forecast is a terminal rate of three and a quarter to three and a half percent. We think we'll get there by the end of 2022. We don't have any additional rate hikes in 2023 basically because the economy is decelerating is growing below trend inflation is coming down and I think at that level the fed would probably hold you're right. We had price something around 4% immediately after the effort of the meeting or right around the F one C meeting. But I think people have looked at the fact that the economy actually is decelerating. And that has led to a reversal of that. And I think fundamentally, that's appropriate. But Jan, given the fact that we are seeing a deceleration, but we're not seeing a deceleration when it comes to the inputs into inflation. And we're seeing rents continue to climb at a record pace. We're continuing to see some of the disruptions to oil supplies and to food supplies that are causing some of the price increases. When do you start to talk stagflation? When do you start to talk about a fed that is forced to act despite an unemployment rate that's rising and despite weakening economic data points? Well, I think it's a little bit more mixed if I look at the inflation indicators. No question the last CPI and the rent number there was bad. There was an increase in the long-term University of Michigan inflation expectations measure. But the supply chain measures are actually getting better. You look at the supply of delivery indices in the business service. Those are coming down, the wage numbers in 2022 have been sequentially clearly slower than the second half of last year. And I think broadly speaking, inflation expectations look at just the break evens and the bond market are still very well anchored. So I think it's a more mixed picture. And in an environment where growth comes down to a below trend pace, I just don't think that the fed would keep hiking aggressively when the economy is already slowing and inflation is already coming down. So, Jan, essentially, what you're saying is that when chairman Powell was speaking on Capitol Hill yesterday saying that our commitment to fighting inflation is unconditional that they're actually our conditions in which the fed blinks. I think the conditions where the fed blinks, but it's
Bloomberg Radio New York
"john farrell" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"John Farrell. We got 14 things to talk about. Let's squeeze it in. Now, Before Michael McKee and James Bullard of the ST Louis Fed. They're looking at a bond market most unusual in love with the curves flatter that's curious, isn't it in the face of the C P pp than expected Not a question. Still to be asked for this Federal Reserve Tom, We understand the objectives. We understand the mission made a better understanding of how $120 billion of asset purchases every single months helps them achieve that. And in the words of Congressman Trey Hollingsworth in the last 24 hours, Tom were distorting the financial economy for very little benefit. In the real economy that seems to be a big debate that gets a lot of attention. Still, then John what's so important here and we lead strong. And this morning, I'm Bloomberg Radio on Bloomberg Television or Michael McKee with James Bullard. Then later, he will be in conversation at the Rocky Mountain Summit with Charles Evans of Chicago. And I believe John Chairman Powell stop by as well for an appearance midday. Mike McKee has got it right. That's any Tom. He's got it right. Maybe that's what we should be doing. Chairman. Power will come by. In the next couple of hours. We'll get a testimony from him. And then we'll have some questions this time from the Senate Banking Committee, Tom and I imagine it will be more of the same more of the same for a Federal Reserve chairman. Looking for a second term. Let's be clear about that. That very much on the agenda raging debate Lisa Brammertz, the nuances the distinctions of transitory in temporary, which is it and one of the most most important aspects. I think of the testimony yesterday. And frankly, what he might say today is Fed Chair, J. Palace comments and housing and, frankly, the line of questioning there. When you talk about the elevated asset prices and the potential for financial market distortions to have a real world impact, that's very much the forefront of his focus. I'm curious. But Jim Bullard says about tapering mortgage backed securities purchases. That's economics at the moment. John Oliver, it wrapped around the morning of data and, of course, claims coming up as well. Here in 28 minutes, red and green on the screen has become red in the screen Futures Negative. 15 January sticking the VIX, not a big deal. 17.53 isn't gloom, but it's not the day after day bull market we've seen. Let's keep it brief time been into the bond market Yields lower curve flatter down two basis points to 1 30 to 57. And if you're just tuning in for an audience worldwide on TV and radio Morgan Stanley down about 1.36% just a little light on fixed income trading once again forget James Gorman's bank on Wall Street's up. Very good. It is a regime change. Well, no, Actually, nothing's changed. Michael McKee has offered some place romantic. Well, Lisa, John and I are in the cold shell of a summer in New York. It is Michael McKean conversation at the Rocky Mountain Summit. With the most interesting gentlemen from ST Louis. Michael McKee. Good morning. Good morning to you, Tom. We are here in Victor, Idaho, where the sun will be up and a little bit. The Sun's already up in ST Louis. And we'd like to welcome Jim Bullard to Bloomberg. Television and radio Worldwide. Good morning to you, sir. I'd like to start with a two part question. Chairman Powell yesterday said that inflation is largely a factor. The inflation we're seeing is largely a factor of the reopening of the economy and supply chain issues that will fade. But he also said that we are some ways off from the substantial further progress the feds using as a marker for when it wants to start tapering, so question one. You agree with Chairman Powell on inflation that it is going to be very temporary and question to Where do you think we are on that substantial, further progress continuum? You know on the you said very temporary. I think that's the key debate here. I think, uh, it's clear that some of the inflation will be tapped right. How much and how much feeds into more persistent process. Is really the question that the committee has to wrestle with going forward here, so I think we're or, you know, already above our target on core PC inflation. The committee, according to the summary of economic projections, is predicting 3% That's excluding food and energy prices. That's more inflation than we've seen in a long time in the U. S. And I think some of that will hang on and persists through 2022. We had hotter reports than we anticipated recently. So there's some The possibility that we would ratchet up our expectations for inflation in 2021 22. So this is a different situation that we faced in the past. And on the on the labor market. I think we have made substantial progress. We've come a long way from where we were last December, and all indications are by anecdotal reports that the labor market is going to continue to improve. A lot of people are looking toward September October when schools are back in session for further Improvements, so I think we're in great shape on labor markets as far as Having been able to make progress since last December is not fully healed. It's not fully don, but but have we come a long way since December? I think the answer is yes. Well in terms of that progress, then do you think tapering may have to come sooner than most people anticipate, perhaps pulling it forward into the fourth quarter of this year? Well, the committee is going to add debate that in earnest now at the July meeting, I would emphasize there are lots of parameters around the taper decision. The starting date is only one part of it. The the pace of tapering is another part. MBS versus Treasuries and we can talk about that, if if you want and and but I think the most important thing and that I've been stressing here is the idea that You probably don't want to be an automatic pilot in this situation. This is, uh, really fast growing economy lots of things happening both in the U. S and globally. And I don't think we're we have the luxury of being able to just, uh, go onto automatic pilot and say that we're never going to change the pace of purchases. I think we have to be more state contention than that. Because we're not quite sure where this inflation process is going to go. We need some optionality on the upside with respect to possible inflation shocks. While the chairman did say again yesterday that if inflation did seem to be persistent, the Fed wouldn't hesitate to act and that you have the tools to deal with inflation. What do you say to critics on Wall Street?.
Rotten Tomatoes is Wrong (A Podcast from Rotten Tomatoes)
"john farrell" Discussed on Rotten Tomatoes is Wrong (A Podcast from Rotten Tomatoes)
"I'll sud. I'll see you there but it will be interesting to watch her this time because i obviously she's she's got a few movies under you. Learn a little bit as you go. And i can imagine. She's able to do more now than she was able to do. In the first one or it could be the other way around. She's just like go ahead. Sweetie i'm gonna go. I'm gonna go hit my trailer and guess what else we're getting guess. What else forgetting what. Oh russian accent yet. More russian accents david harbour Also what's her name. God fumes pugh lawrence pugh. Yes lawrence pugh. Who i just love. I was not a fan of midsummer but she. She gave it her all in that movie mary crazy of this is why i don't know why people sometimes now seriously brothers told me on multiple occasions. He's not going to go on the road with me because he's worried. I'm taking him to some midsummer like ritual and the brother the whole time. Like listen to black people telling you and they just like glories ignoring Another thing we've kind of talked on it before. About mickey worth. I'm sorry micky work was our first Entry of bedia semi marvel issue. You cannot tell me different like that is the most insane flunkies is and i know they come up with some stupid reason why it was supposed to be there. But i'm like the minute. I thought i was like. Oh this cake like legitimate hillary but they said told you why he had whips up. That was the issue. The harness was to power. The whims lose. Like out of all the things. You could fam- you just looked around the house when you were making this in a back alley siberia home. You just happened to have whips that you would like you know what these look. Good electrified like. What can you also picture. Mickey work as like your neighbor in the suburb. And he's out there with this parakeet and like on his lawn like if he was in just a regular like robe or like just normal clothes and i saw him with a bird. I'm like there is freaky things going on in. That would the one with the whips he would he would just it'd be a giant electrified weed whacker where he's going back and forth and i really think i feel for the character to because the character it seemed like he wanted to have those electrified whips particularly with the purpose of shopping cars in half lately. That's why he did it. And then the rest of the movies just now. This is what i'm taking it back. I'm really. I wish i'd sort of modified my weaponry a little bit more but man does that. What an imposing presence. Yeah for a villain to arrive with where he does. Not care about the cars indy cards over two hundred miles an hour kids. They're just zoomed by him. He does not care perfectly times the whips and he gets a car rammed into his legs multiple times and he bounces back from it. That is a guy hell bent on hips and four times a guessing the with the c. Again south of john farrell and just the road good dialogue that pepper happy antonio habit at that moment where. He's trying to get the briefcase he likes. Can i get off. The football told even sales having you try to hit me like we try to hit what you're trying to me get football. Yeah the other thing is interesting too. Is they took away. That plot device in the story of ironman of him being able to get into the soup..
Bloomberg Radio New York
"john farrell" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Bostic in for John Farrell remain. I'm going to assume that Mr Marlowe's doesn't own Athlon Medical Athlon Medical employees, eight employees. Well right now it's up about 256% here. In the pre market. This is a small caps out there. That's just it. This is a small cap stock less than $100 million in market value. As of yesterday's close, it's going to be a lot higher. If it opens here. Who knows? Tom? This actually got touted on Reddit here. There seems to be a lot of talk about some Medical packaging to pronounce it, But who knows? Finance writing it up here? Chemo purifier purifier That sounds like Yeah, all of that. Did you see what what Jeff Gundlach said yesterday about memes. Stocks, he said, is playing with fire. Don't even get involved on the shorts and the long don't even get involved, probably said he probably has 7000 shares. Babylon. He bought it from Pharaoh. Right now we're going to his equities and the new bonds Ira jersey to join us in a moment, but very quickly here on fundamentals and not memes. We are mean for you with David Wilson. What do you got? What I'm talking about today. It's what's going on within the S and P 500 component stocks And it's something that JC O Hara, who's the chief market technician over at the M Cam Partners, point out, and his latest note, looking at something called the Accumulative Advance Decline line for the S P 500 So cute. It's down, right? I mean what we're talking about day to day. How many stocks up in the S and P. 500? How many down and there's sort of a running total of that. So we saw that particular indicator, which we can pile here at Bloomberg set a record on Friday, even as the S and P 500 kind of struggled to fall soon. We saw it again yesterday with the index near a record toward the close of trading, but not able to get above it is that Breath in the market. Is that what breath really means? That is that is one indicator of breath. And it's perhaps a more traditional one. You can talk about other gauges. Equal weighted index is kind of gets into the same place, you know, Take the S and P 500 move market value out of the equation. Count every stock the same, and by the way, the Equal weight s and P 500 also got to a record on Friday. So you know it's about the broad based strength in the market, which oh, Howard describes as a technical pillar. Got 30 seconds because we got to go to the bonds with the yield of 1 49 and the 10 year. David Wilson. Don't you love the very line geometric. I mean, it's just the coolest index. It's like log rhythms, folks within the series. Well, I mean, that's it. Another example of broad market since Value line covers about 1700 companies and are all included in that in that I just did this so you golf could see the genius city of David Wilson. Mean, you know, there's 1700 stocks on the Value line Index. I did not know that. Are any of them. Um, M stuck. I wouldn't be surprised if you'd find game stopper AMC or some of the others in there in the nine o'clock hour. David Wilson joining us with the SPAC report right now, Kyra Jersey joins us our chief U. S interest rate strategist. IRA sophisticated question. Why are yields going lower? The economy is not as good as people think. And and the bond market is leaning very short. So I think that you just have a little bit of short covering here and we're approaching 1 50 is not a particularly important level on technically. 1 47 is and we're only you know a heartbeat away from there at this point. So what's causing the short squeeze at this point, Kyra, given the fact that we're probably going to get CPI numbers tomorrow that show inflation certainly picking up in the short term in the U. S. Yes, I think it's though that that that the market is coming around to the idea that inflation is going to be Transitory. One of the big moves here is you've seen 10 year inflation break. Even so, the the market's expectations for what inflation is an average over the next 10 years come down about 10 basis points. In the last in the last two weeks and and I think that that's endemic of the idea that we don't have the labor market quite as strong as people had hoped. We still have retail sales that are spotty. Overall and even if prices in some sectors are going up, there's still a lot of large sectors that have are going to see prices actually start to stabilize over the next three or four months. So a few weeks ago when everyone thought that the data was actually good and will continue to be good IRA. We had actually seen a little bit of shortening in duration and a lot of folks portfolios at least. Folks that we talked to here on the network here. Does that duration shorten further Or does it go in the opposite direction? Yeah, well, I think I think everyone was kind of leaning short. So you had people in curb steep nerves. You had people. No outright short duration. So you know, in the shorter end of the curve and and selling longer term stuff, so a lot of that is starting to unwind. You look at futures positioning, and you see a lot of long duration positions by speculators or starting to be cut, You know, pretty significantly over the over the last couple of weeks and and I think that that kind of activity is just showing that No, This is not going to be a one way street. It's not, you know, yields go from 1% up to 2.5% all at once. I think eventually they will, but you're going to see these long periods of consolidation until there's Clear and convincing evidence that the that the economy is going to be on strong footing in that the Fed is going to do something like paper. I think the issue you have with the data. Being as uneven as it has been, is that monetary policy is likely to be on hold even longer, And I think that that's One of the one of the factors that's driving this this short covering rally IRA. You started your comments by saying the bond market is saying that the economy isn't as good as it seemed, and that this is sort of the confirmation that we're seeing in the move today. Other people would say baloney. It's because the Federal Reserve is buying $120 billion of bonds every month and will likely continue to do so. And that is the entire reason because otherwise these yields would not make sense. Given more inflation already is. What's your response to that? Is this all the Fed and the Fed action? Well, it's no, it's not definitely not all the Fed action because if that was true, then yields would and would never have sold off in the first place. Um, because they haven't stopped buying the same amount that they have been the amount of bombs now for almost a year. So so it's not that, but it is the idea that maybe they're going to buy more for you no longer period of time that maybe Taper will be delayed..
Page To Stage
"john farrell" Discussed on Page To Stage
"And i continue to. Do you know i i was doubtfire. Is is a show by show before because i needed John farrell was southie rob and they were top of glass. There other professions wayne was a songwriter carried brilliant screenwriter john screenwriter at an office but the number of use felt so upbringing teams together. Because everything is fresh. Anything is possible. There's not as an agent saying you you're talking to this has to happen krieger. It's just getting the room Fled because that's why it's after that initial When you guys jumped over to the states with six ended the north american tour. When you're looking for a house for it to be on broadway. Can you talk about those discussions behind the scenes. I mean we always hear about shows like just trying to get into a house in like. That's the reason why they can't make it to broadway on time. And it's all about certain timing. Was that one of your main responsibilities in your role as a producer on this production. I think I think my hers probably the author simple. That's my job. Yes but that's not the most important. I'm a great believer that you blow his gets here. If the show captures the imagination. And i knew the show i knew i was right in your always a little worried. Because if you're not worry you don't understand you know the risk reward ratios art of your skill to now with signs are I this show. That opened a great show right cyclo that opened it. Mcc previewing the night trump length. It going what are shows about. The election of trump created a great all over our audience and the show seemed very different than anytime before so so world events can fact the mood and attitude on audience shows about and I.
WBZ NewsRadio 1030
"john farrell" Discussed on WBZ NewsRadio 1030
"Flying temperatures, 33 Agrees. After more than 1500 games in a Red Sox uniforms and three World Series titles. Dustin Pedroia is retiring. The 37 year old had injury issues over the years but was known for being a hard nosed player. Former manager John Farrell says Pedroia was arguably the best second basement to wear a Sox uniform. Pedroia stepping down retiring for the Red Sox today, We'll have more coming up in sports in just a couple of minutes. Or coded relief is on the drawing board in Washington 10 Republican senators releasing the framework of their proposal. The price tag of their plan is nowhere near the $1.9 trillion proposed by President Joe Biden. Instead, 10 Republican senators are proposing $618 billion for the next round of covert economic relief. Their plan includes more money for vaccine distribution, funding for schools and small businesses. And an extension of federal unemployment benefits of $300 per week through June. It also includes another round of $1000 direct stimulus checks, but those checks will only go to individuals making less than $50,000 per year. Liz officials. The ABC NEWS Washington Massive jump in the price of game stops. Shock Star Game stops stock say that three times fast raising some red flags around the trading world. But the big rally from the game stops stock. Actually has Hollywood doing some thinking deadline is reporting. MGM has scored the rights to a book proposal about the Wall Street bets, read it for him that propelled Gamestop stock in defiance of large hedge funds. The book called The Antisocial Network is from New York Times Best selling author. Ben Mez Rick He's the author of the Accidental Billionaires. The founding of Facebook, a tale of sex money, genius and Betrayal, which was adapted into the Oscar winning film The Social Network in 2010. Lisa Matteo CBS News. We can tell you that Game Stop stock was down about 31% today, but the markets across the board doing some gaining andro Day is at Bloomberg. Good way to start a week a day. Month. Whatever. Indeed, Darryl closes up 230 points That's almost 2%. NASDAQ Up 332 S and P 500 up 60 as the upheaval brought on by the tug of war between Big Wall Street firms, short selling troubled stocks and individual traders inspired by Reddit message boards, bidding those same stocks up Calm down at least a little at least enough for the market today. Since the unveiling of its first sink in car infotainment system in 2007, Ford is.
WBZ NewsRadio 1030
"john farrell" Discussed on WBZ NewsRadio 1030
"The Reggie Lewis Center was supposed to open today. But it isn't because of the storm at Fenway Park in Gillette Stadium vaccinations will move to earlier in the day. Those who couldn't make it we'll have to reschedule. It's the end of an era at Fenway Park. Justin takes one day, Dustin Pedroia will not be taking one deep anymore. He is retiring after more than 1500 games and Red Sox uniform and three World Series titles in 27, 2013 and 2018. The second basement is hanging up the cleats the 37 year old has had Issues over the years with injuries, but he's known for being a hard nosed player, Former manager Terry Francona says PD was the ultimate team player. Former manager John Farrell says Pedroia was arguably the best second basement aware a Sox uniform and someone who knows a bit about being a Red Sox legend David Ortiz. There's Pedroia was committed to do well for his team and his teammates is commitment was extraordinary. Two or three traffic and weather together. The Subaru retailers of the England all wheel drive traffic on the threes. We got the snow flying problem spots might where are they? Yeah. Then here we go. We've got snow coming down overall area highways. Well, except Route six on the cape. They're just getting rain mail mostly over Route six. But, yeah, we're seeing those delays and backups were the snowplows and sanding trucks are treating the highways. Of course. Just have patience. Give them some room today. Others attracted trailer in tandem trailer ban on all state roads. So keep that in mind, too. Now Here's the thing. The volume is is really light. I think a lot of folks are staying off the highways today, which is probably why we've got no serious A major problems here of the expressway..
Bloomberg Radio New York
"john farrell" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Look to the voters and those voters who support President Trump. A number of them were. I've spoken to have said that they are Trump supporters first before they belonged to any party. And so the question is number one. How will those voters continue to support Trump as he loses his platform as president in the White House and number two? How will that impact elections? Will we see lawmakers still want to be in step with Trump as we saw for the recent Georgia's Senate runoff? Well, we see the party continued to listen to Trump to pay attention to trump or will we see other figures begin to emerge and leave the party in a different direction. Emily Wilkins, just east of the White House here, we welcome all of you to our simulcast on Bloomberg Radio and Bloomberg television here. The D eight o'clock our futures up 15 down features of 40 a lift to the market on a day of history for the United States of America. Jonathan Farrow, Lisa brand Woods and Tom Keen. Thank you for joining us through the day, David Westin in 11:11 A.m. will move to the swearing in of of President Biden right now, the helicopter and the cell phone of the White House. John Farrell. I want to direct our attention to what we'll see in a half an hour, which is Mr and Mrs Biden coming out of Blair house, where traditionally they would stay. And going in beginning the festivities of the day. The celebration of the day. I mean, it's odd in that it's one part Ah, unique process by President Trump and another part John Farrell, of Mr Biden really hearkening to great tradition. And some tradition is one thing. But policy making is another. And I think the tradition is, of course important, but this year You're walking into a real crisis. Tom, a real crisis, a pandemic that continues to take many people's lives in a threshold in the United States of America. Went through 400,000 in the last 24 hours. There is real work to do. There is no honeymoon down in Washington, D. C. Let's be clear about that. I think the events of the last two weeks prove their underlying it and Tom, I think the way that That transfer of power will take place today through the next several hours in the United States of America, underlies that these are not normal times, nothing normal about it. There's real work to do still, and they're gonna have to hit the ground running. I don't think they get 100 days. I don't think they get 100 days to sit there and wait and I don't think they expect they will, either They've been talking about the failures of this administration. Since this administration walked into the White House on people will want to see results and see results quickly. The vaccination program will be a real test of that. How quickly can things improve their OK there pretty good compared to the rest of the world right now. On the vaccination front. Tom needs to get a whole lot better. Glimmers here in the last few days of maybe some better trends in the United States. But as I said earlier a few days ago, I didn't extrapolation out to the shocking statistic of half a million. And it's unfortunately sooner rather than later the schedule here for this hour and think, too. So our producers for giving us this and this is already amended. The president eight o'clock Andrews. We're late on that at 804 Wall Street time. 8 20, the president, with comments at Andrews, Mr Biden leaving Blair house at 8 30. I assume that will be on schedule and he will attend church, a bipartisan effort. It's ST Matthew's Catholic Church, the Cathedral of the Catholic Church in Washington D. C right now Greg Valya joins us with a F G. I've noted everybody in Washington reads each and every morning. And Greg. I do want to talk about something we've really avoided this morning is John Farrow mentions? We get right to work. And part of that work is impeachment. What will we see this Wednesday and Thursday? On impeachment. Yeah. Hi, Tom. Good morning. Everybody talks about unity, and I know it's going to be a big thing for Joe Biden. But we have a different trial coming up that I think will be better. I think it will drag on for two or three weeks. I think they probably will fail. I think it could make Donald Trump look like a martyr. I think it'll complicate Joe Biden's agenda so right away after talking about unity, we could that and I would just also Anton the Janet Yellen hearing yesterday. Was not that unified. The Republicans pushed back hard on new spending. Yeah, well, that's exactly where I wanted to go. This idea that we talk about unity. And yet we have these divisions that are getting just deeper. Do you feel momentum behind this $1.9 Trillion plan, Or do you think this is going to drag out for months far longer than the market is pricing in? I think this moment, um behind a plan. I'm not sure it's this plan that has a lot of money for state and local governments for minimum wage. I think we'll get something but I don't think it will be 1.9 Trillion. I think we could get a deal by the end of February. But the Republicans really showed their hand yesterday that they don't want anything this expensive. 1.9 trillions the number. What do you think it comes down to, Greg? Well, I've been saying something around 15. I think maybe 1415 I think that is doable. The Democrats have to hold on to every one of their 50 senators. And I'm not convinced, John that they've got all 50. They might have 48. They might have 49. So this will I think, boil down to negotiations between Joe Biden and Mitch McConnell great value with us with a G E. F and he will stay with us at this moment, Kevin so really at the Capitol overlooking the West front The capital, Emily Wilkens, just east of the White House of Freedom Plaza, is we wait the president of the United States to leave now seven minutes behind schedule, not a surprise with that The helicopter awaits for the trip to Andrews as well. Great value is so much of this, and we just talked to where there's the Post pollster for conservative at Republicans, is Republicans. Acting fast to get ready for 2022 primaries. What would you expect to see from conservative Southern Republicans? Well, it is amazing. Isn't it time that we're already talking about? Translate to, But that's Washington. So a couple of points I'd make number one. I do think that the Republicans will hit hard on the issue of taxes and spending. I think the country doesn't want big new taxes. I think that's going to be a potent argument for them s so I think that the other point I'd make is that historically a first term president. In his first midterm election, loses about 5% of House and Senate seats. If I were to lose 5% of House and Senate seats, he'd lose both houses. Greg, I want you to talk about the silence of Mr Hoover. Mr Roosevelt long ago and far away in the early days of the Depression without question that quiet is car ride in the history of our presidents..
Bloomberg Radio New York
"john farrell" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"So much for joining us, a former chief of staff for President Bush thrilled to have him in to get Republican perspective this morning, Lisa your thoughts in that conversation and really pulling it back to the response that the senator from Utah got yesterday. Well, the question of who is the leader going forward here and how that leader operate with the Democratic leadership currently That is going to try to push forward some fiscal support. I mean, just speaking from the markets perspective, moving past the politics. That is really the main question. How much support are we gonna pump into an economy is still very much beset by this pandemic, Tom. And of course, you saw the financials really move yesterday. I mean, I think one of the great shocks there was small cap movement and in banks leading hire a swell this idea that more physical support is going to spur growth. Is going to spur inflation. Tom, I do wonder how much longer term inflation and growth we can really get with money that for all intensive purposes, still is plugging a production gap from the pandemic that is really, really drawn everything to a halt. There's been some good are reading on that and writing. I should say as well about the application of all this debt and where it's going. Let me do a day to check right now, As we move forward through surveillance. Lots of good voices coming up is well features up. 14. I need to give you levels because I've lost perspective. 37 55 SPX. I only did that for John Farrell I know is watching and Capri Dow 30,000. 800 NASDAQ important Over 12,700. It's a melt up. Please stay with this assignment, Kissed and Bloomberg Radio Bloomberg Television Lisa Abramowitz, Tom Keen and John, uh,.
The Herd with Colin Cowherd
Indians take AL Central lead with walk-off HR
"Wonder if joe man's going to school the same way of all the other veteran managers in major league baseball always have decided they don't wanna pay the older guys they'd rather use young guys analytics they'd rather make out the lineups in the front office rather than let managers do it in the dugout. We saw dusty baker. We saw joe girardi. We saw a buck show walter walter. We saw john farrell. We saw all these old. Tom skippers get shuttled out and not to be seen again. Is this going to happen to joe. Madden madden says he remains optimistic about getting a new deal with the cubs but it is interesting that he went into the season without without having more than just this season on a contract despite the cubs all the success that he's had the oh epstein the president of baseball all operations says that <hes> he'll wait and see sit down at some point and they'll discuss the future of joe madden and let's face it unless they win a world series. It doesn't seem as if the cubs interested in bringing back joe madden number three just when you
Bloomberg Surveillance
Is Amazon making any money from Prime Day?
"Watch some in in London with this right now on Amazon prime day man John Farrow took me to task tide pods laundry detergent is usually thirty to fifty eight and they're giving it away to John for all right now for twenty two dollars seventy nine cents that's like you know thirty percent off thirty five percent how do they do that map block somewhere they make any money on Amazon prime day when John Farrell gets out the Bloomberg charge card yeah well may be known as much as they usually do but also I mean I think that's gonna be a mix of Amazon and the Browns and sells promoting the stuff I for me I think this these two days as it now is farmers and is much more about raising profile of the prime membership because there have been a whole bunch of studies that show that prime members spend way more on the platform the non prime members I think the last research I saw suggested was about fourteen hundred dollars a year on average for prime member compact about six hundred dollars for non prime members say the more people they can get state prime memberships is going to be better in the long term for business I think taking a beyond just the retail stuff when you've got this in the apple pushing into TV in the coming months you know it's kind of more important for the kind of broad a range of services they're offering to eat so Matthew I mean it's not just Amazon it seems like in a wal Mart's got a big sales day blitz target we know Ali Baba from China's got their singles day there's a lot of competition out there on the retail sales how does Amazon fairing yeah we can we can I think I think that they're doing pretty good mean I guess what yeah if you look at is in sales through the year Q. two isn't a big split it still key for whether you get that real big retell blip into Christmas I think this is kind of helpful for them from a kind of momentum perspective but it's not the be all and end all on us I think for them it's more about just kind of raising profile of the prime concept but overseas successful enough that you've had these big brown this Walmart and everybody else feel that they need to do something because that gonna suffer more pain from the success thousand jets if they don't do something so I think that's props more the sense of how the how much kind of retail foot full they kind of socket on these couple of days some of you I know it it's big here Amazon prime this big here in the U. S. gives a sense of what it's like in the UK and Europe so for sure you can yeah it's it's pretty big I mean you know over the weekend huge amount of advertising yeah on kind of radio print ready making people aware of these this couple days in the kind of office you can get I'd say let's let's say props on the continent just because you know Amazon on the whole kind of online shopping thing is is is a little bit behind as it as it often is on these things there were talking to Matt Miller in Berlin idea today and you know he didn't really get the sense of being a huge amount of promotion in Germany on this one so if official the U. K. as big a big deal let's say props on the continent but it's still important to their elasticity in raising the annual fee on prime I mean when the sell side or Bloomberg intelligence looks at what is it ninety nine dollars a year yeah I think you sound I think it might be a hundred twenty now okay so they can creep in it yeah right do we know where their limit is where the social women is on that price my answer is we don't have a clue I don't think we do I mean for so we don't actually know how many customers they've they've got on prominent I think lost it just pays a set the about a four hundred million globally so you know we don't have any talk the mystic modifications to me is still seems like amazingly good value now as a in the U. K. it costs seventy nine pounds for the year for which you get you
Bloomberg Surveillance
Donald Trump meets Queen at start of UK state visit
"Much. It is always a moment of imported, what is a special relationship. We've just seen Marineland to the side of the garden at Buckingham Palace. And then the pageantry of the president United States and first lady exiting to be greeted by Prince Charles and to be escorted to a handshake with the Queen outside of Buckingham Pels, John Farrell official this morning, Woodrow Wilson's entrance into London. In one thousand nine hundred eighteen is a conquering World War, One hero. Very different this time. But nevertheless, the formalities are there, whichever president, typically at a state, visit, though, you'll greeted ho Scott's parade says original Bank rated in the garden, Horseguards parade. Is this is in the Kentucky Derby, as it is very different summit. It's not the Kentucky down for no. So typically, welcome to Horseguards parade. Welcome this time by the prince of Wales, and the duchess of Cornwall they will go inside. Now they would also meet with the Queen that we'll have lunch together. I understand also that you have Sussex will be joining them as well. But Princess of his associates on maternity leave. She's on maternity. Leave our listeners worldwide will not be doing Royal baby talk on this program. Don't we will lose to vote? That's the excuse for the duchess Ajan. Don't get me started. I don't you? I have no interesting, comfortable baby. On new importers looking at us. Humping that we just took credit and we talk about this sunny. Keep talking. William. This Jerome Powell nasty right now. Getting out front. No. I just on the, the Queen no one's getting any young. So I think people are going to read chicken entrails into who's meeting whom, and so on an patch, it shouldn't be over interpreted. The key point is this is a state visit not government. Visit so. Yes, that is an. Council on Friday, the counsel, general, I should say the United Kingdom was John and I were in London, we're seeing the, the guns cannons are out shooting. It reminds me of the movie, the patriot. And this is a true story, folks. Ball went right through Cornwall's. I honestly never know whether it's a true story with you will. Bar, but they're, they're doing this going to be many as you mentioned, John correctly. All of this pomp and circumstance leading up to exceptionally serious Thursday at Portsmouth, the seventy fifty anniversary of the landings
Surveillance
GE Will Spin Off Health-Care Business in Latest Revamp
"The yen one zero nine point six run as a bloomberg business flash tom and john thank you so much karen bar where this we're talking to run a six hour basis now bloomberg intelligence looking at industrials including generous electric karen the headlines today including healthcare is a spin out of sixteen percent of revenues was for me the bombshell which is at lawrence call larry cop of danaher will become the lead director tell audience who mr cop is and tell us why the danaher process will be good for mr flannery and ge larry call was the former ceo danaher he was are here or not so arguably one of the most well respected industrials ceos he he took danaher from a small hand tool company until multibillion dollar healthcare slash diversified entity very high margins and then split the company into an industrial and a healthcare business so he's execution is fake danaher business systems is the process by which he executed so well and that's the thing that people will be cut to the chase and i know you're not going to write about this because john farrell wants to get in here with fourteen questions are they gonna danaher is g e and are what they're really doing is setting up ge is the ultimate bolt on for dinner danaher is danaher new danaher is health care and in fact there was some discussion that danaher had looked at a part of gs healthcare business a life science business i don't know that they'd be very interested in healthcare relate the equipment you know the imaging equipment i think g e g that's going to remain is just going to be again a heavy capitalintensive business but air aviation and power so you know in a way they have healthcare piece now and they'll have an industrial pieces well but they'll just be separated you karen you've talked about the strength of this healthcare business you surprised that the spinning off as quickly as they have announced the.