13 Burst results for "Jody advocate"

"jody advocate" Discussed on This Day In Esoteric Political History

This Day In Esoteric Political History

08:21 min | 1 d ago

"jody advocate" Discussed on This Day In Esoteric Political History

"To this day in Esoteric political history from radio topiary. My name is jody advocate. This Day August Eleventh Nineteen ninety-three Ruth Bader Ginsburg, first day as supreme. Court justice. She was sworn in the day before had been confirmed relatively smoothly earlier in the year after being nominated by bill. Clinton to replace Byron White She became the second female justice on the Supreme Court. I'm not sure when she was getting sworn in, if you realized that someday should become. Become a bit of a mean with people getting tattoos of her face or her image on a onesies on babies in park slope in Berkeley. But Hey, here we are, and let's talk a little about the legacy of Ruth Bader Ginsburg time on the court. I'm joined as always by Nicole, Hammer? Of Columbia Hello Nicki. Yeah. You never see Semih Ironic onesies coming debut. Judy. That's right. You live your whole life without having people get a tattoo of your face, and then someday that just changes and so I guess it's hopeful. At some point, someone might get a tattoo of your face, but I don't know inspire. Inspire and our special guests, this episode who who else to join for this one. But one of our favorite legal writers and talkers, Value Lick of slate, who does the amicus podcast was just published a three part series on Ruth Bader Ginsburg including an interview with Ginsberg herself. So W. Thank you for doing this. Hey Jodie. Hi. Nicki, I've wanted to put in a pitch for someone to get cracking on the Elena. Kagan onesies I think it's time is coming greed So you know sunny sort of my or has a lot a lot a lot of fans, but I think Elena Kagan somehow not nearly enough onesies tattoos so. Dark. Horse the. Game. In the Wendy's index turn. So I do want WanNa talk about your series and your series kind of does does something to paint the roots of where Ruth Bader Ginsburg came from which I think is an interesting place to start. Let's talk a little bit I. Guess about the selection and confirmation process. One thing that I just noticed researching. This was that you know correct me if I'm wrong, but it seemed Clinton's choice was really on a razor's edge, and it was really maybe at the last second that he decided to go with Ginsberg. What do we need to know about that? That decision? I think many things were interesting about that chief among them. You know Clinton's like a big gregarious personality and Ruth Bader. GINSBURG is not right I. Mean, I think she is just. Such a a serious personality, there's a funny story that her daughter tells. I think in one of the movies, her daughter. Jane, says, they used to have a little. Cup. And a thing in it called Mommy laughed where they would put like a dollar in if you know, but it was empty like. Not a big big robust personality. Ironically, her husband Mardi really was and when justice GINSBURG talks about people she loves in the world. She always talks about Mardi and Justice Scalia because they make her laugh and I think one thing that is definitely true is that she would not have bold Bill Clinton over in one of those go sees where they sit and Chat Jeff Rosen who's now at the Constitution Center, but who was then just doing journalism I, think take some credit fairly for putting her on his shortlists for writing an article while this was in process saying. You should really take a closer look at her. She's a really interesting jurist, and the last thing I would say which is interesting is in addition to being a pretty sober interview in a pretty moderate judge at that point part of what's been lost to history is that the women's movement was not for her, she had really somehow wrong-footed a lot of women's rights activists, and they did not really support her either they felt that her funny incremental step by Step Litigation, strategy in the nineteen seventies was really That of privileged white women and really small ball, and so she was in some ways. Darkhorse candidate for a lot of reasons that history is now forgotten right because when you get the. Face. And you get this idea that she was this rabid bomb throwing lefty feminist. She was none of those. They don't get attached to this incremental. ISM. porteous kind of sober legal architect of long term plans I. Mean. She was just none of the things that we. Raya Fight Today Yeah, which is why this is a really interesting moment for her to get nominated all those forces come together because on the one hand, you have that kind of moderate record from the Appeals Court and then from the circuit court. But then on the other hand, she doesn't look as left as she is and so one of the other people who helps to push her forward. Forward. Is Orrin Hatch. WHO's a Republican senator who's on the Judiciary Committee and Bill Clinton even though he didn't have to because the Republicans were in the minority reaches out to hatch and ask him for some ideas and hatch trying to forestall a more liberal candidate suggests both Ginsburg, and just, and who'd become Justice Briar. So He's Bill Clinton. Who's always looking for that that third way that. That moderate way in the middle seizes on these two names and eventually nominates them both. When you read about the confirmation hearings themselves, if it seems like there's two main themes that may be to my mind are slightly at odds with one another, which is one she does carpet from around here, but I think make a fairly forceful statement with regards to row, but within those confirmation hearings are. Are also where we get the Ginsburg rule, which is kind of way to evade and some way taking hard stances, and so can you just characterize the nature of her confirmation hearings and an confirmation hearings at that time and how much she was really trying to be put on the record and how much she was trying to play that game that we see Supreme? Court. Nominees always play. It's a good question and I think one answer is she did indeed layout. I think what is the formulation for the GINSBURG rule which is? What does she call it? No hints, no forecasts that she's not going to talk about how she's going to vote in future cases. But she did that in part because she had this massive record to build both from sitting on the bench and all of her academic work and all of her litigation work, and so she was able to say, no hints, no forecasts in part because her record really demonstrably proved how she thought about road. There was never a question how she thought of and you know as folks. No, she actually thought. In some sense was wrongly decided that she would have located the right to reproductive freedom, equal protection clause and not in due process. She actually thought row was far too conservative and didn't go far enough, which is also proven pretty prashant. But I, think that what she was saying when she? Made. Her kind of line in the sand. I'm not going to forecast what I'm to talk about in future cases was go ahead and look at my record. It's pretty clear. Now, the quote Unquote Ginsburg rule is cited by people who have no judicial history who have no academic writings who've sometimes been bloggers or seven minutes before they get nominated to the federal appellate courts and they use it. It to say I'm not going to answer anything, but the GINSBURG rule emphatically didn't mean in her view I won't discuss my ideas about things. So now when it's used by people when they refused to answer whether Brown v Board was correctly decided, that's not the GINSBURG rule. That's just evasion I think. Yeah. I'm so interested in her feminism and maybe this is a way of. Understanding her judicial thinking as a way to better understand this because she as you mentioned she when she's nominated, she's considered a moderate or centrist. But today she's.

Ruth Bader Ginsburg Bill Clinton Ginsburg Unquote Ginsburg Supreme Court Nicki Ginsberg Elena Kagan Orrin Hatch Berkeley Byron White Mardi Step Litigation Judy Jodie Columbia Appeals Court Justice Scalia Jane Jeff Rosen
"jody advocate" Discussed on ESPN FC

ESPN FC

04:54 min | 9 months ago

"jody advocate" Discussed on ESPN FC

"And for US Really Immaculate. So I I I don't know I think I think they need to reevaluate singer to With a view towards the summer. So Jill we're joined by Jody advocate who of course Does those thirty for thirty podcasts. Obviously remember The documentaries yeah if your podcast guy and I am I'm assuming you are to audience. Otherwise probably wouldn't be listening to us I there's some really good stuff in there any did he's. He's done one on one of those stories that I remember as a kid I'm just fascinated fascinated me. I think there's a real expression of international football he meant at the time Jody Thanks for joining us. And and you're gonNA tell us about the epic Brazil VICI World Cup qualifier ahead of the Nineteen Ninety World Cup. Yeah I was GonNa ask you to you whether either of you remember this incident and not Jodi not only do. I remember the the incident I remember Rosemary as Mary Mellow. I even got the boy. Was Rosemary Mellow in. It really was a good excuse. You yeah so I I too young to read about eighty nine knowing that you were coming on the show freight shirt and this. I didn't know about and try said reporting seen it either but you know it's a little hard. I'll give people some context. It's a little hard talk about without spoiling it but in essence in this latest episode of thirty for thirty we do Lisa stark with documentaries. Were looking as you said at these matches between Brazil and she led to qualify for the World Cup which is in Italy And basically Eh over the course of these two matches series of escalating incidents the Games get wilder and wilder. The fans get wilder on water and then ultimately one of the Chilean players does something that to my money is Gabby Tommy. Maybe the most auspicious act. I've ever sort of encountered in sports like it's definitely after Holyfield Tyson ear-biting level in terms of. I can't believe someone did that But you know to US really likes to thirty for thirty. I think the larger context about. How did she get to this moment? How did the team gets to this moment? Where things just spiraled so out of control I honestly I was thinking the I was in the same thing paying and again? We're not we're not going to give away What happened I it is pretty extreme and you talk about you know. Would you give up for your country. What would you give up? Make the impossible happen And there's a whole broader context To this as well all because you know people may remember this was a qualifying delay. Santana who you know. The the some people feel was the last great truly the Great Brazilian coach who coached Brazilian way He moved on after the eighty. Six World Cup. Your this Guy Charles. Aronie they were playing three at the back. The the whole idea was you know We have to be more European but then had a horrendous qualifying campaign they're up against a Cheetah team who again I believe their last Their last experience in the World Cup was in nineteen eighty two when they weren't very good and I and it all comes to a head had in this incredible game And is incredible this incredible incident which later would would pull in criminal investigations and whatnot and see all sorts of ban enforced and and it would just turn to global story. Yeah and I think it also really is tied up into a moment of especially in Chile. you know this this link we see over and over between nationalism and the football team and so she was coming off of a dictatorship Both the dictatorship and the new democratic movements were all trying to sort of seize upon this really good soccer team as the symbol of the country. And you can tell that the players so bad and I mean it's you know it's it's no surprise. We didn't know this when we started reporting it now thirty years later but she was going through national prices and we see the soccer team football team right right now. reflecting that in refusing to play some games and so it's just a reminder that these themes and these and mix of the Po- The political and nationalism and sport are always. He's there in this kind of moments where to one of my favorite things favorite stories because getting huge themes but then it comes down to just one person digital actions which You know you get that night. Nice mix of high and low Jodi. Thanks so much It's thirty for thirty podcasts. Go check it out. I'm sure Yakking con- confined it comes out November. Twenty six really is an absolutely.

US Rosemary Mellow Jody Jodi Brazil Jill soccer Gabby Tommy Lisa stark Holyfield Tyson Guy Charles Mary Mellow Santana Italy football Chile.
"jody advocate" Discussed on 30 For 30 Podcasts

30 For 30 Podcasts

04:21 min | 1 year ago

"jody advocate" Discussed on 30 For 30 Podcasts

"In two thousand fifteen after winning the women's World Cup. I'm very lucky that I got to end my career exactly when I wanted to got to choose when I finished, and I think that's a rare thing in the professional game. Jackie little is still selling cabinets. She started her own remodeling business and married that these United player now. Her ex husband. Looking back. She hates that her soccer career ended so abruptly. She wishes she could have made that choice herself instead of having it made for her. I would have played for as long as possible. And it's funny because my ex husband is gonna know maybe I think why would you retire play until they like don't let you back on the team. Right. I mean, what are you going to do afterwards? Get a desk job. I told him until obviously we got divorced was like play until they like don't pick up your contract play until like they literally have to peel you off the field play until you can't go anymore. Okay. Thanks for listening. Now before we get to the credits. A quick heads up. If you happen to be listening to this before Thursday may sixteenth be sure to tune into ESPN two for a special broadcast from ESPN w it's called the ninety nine reunited, if features a lot of the same people you just heard from but lots more on nine hundred ninety nine and the legacy of that World Cup team. So check it out. It's Thursday may sixteenth seven PM eastern on ESPN two an shout out to Laura per cell and ESPN team who worked with us on putting this all together. Thanks for listening to thirty for thirty podcasts. My name is Jody advocate. ESPN film, senior producer Aaron Liden. And I are series editors the story was reported and produced by Andrew homes and Meredith hot or not it was edited by Andrea obese Scott with archival research by Linden Meese mixing and sound design for this episode by Meredith hot our very own Andrew MAMBO was project manager and helped edit they Sepah sewed, and I'll point out this story took place years ago, but the fight and the tensions between the women's national team and US soccer do continue. You may be seeing some of this going on right now in the news with clashes over equal pay. There's some possible lawsuits it's very much involving story. So as such later this summer during the World Cup. We're going to be posting a bonus episode. I'll talk with angel Helms and Meredith about the World Cup play some audio that didn't make it into the episode. We'll talk about the latest in US soccer. So keep your eye out for that. And if you have any questions in the meantime for us them, send us an Email thirty for thirty podcasts at ESPN dot com. The thirty for thirty podcast team. Also, includes producers meet Kabali Ryan and tell and Keith Romer additional archive research by VIN de Anton Sam dad was the production. Assistant on backpass we had additional production support from Rachel Bain, Bradley Campbell, amber Espinosa, Emily Forman rich Halton Kelly. Jones Barrick rate and special thanks to audio recording in Salt Lake City. Natalie Mead provided fact checking for ESPN films are executive producers are Connor show, rob king and Libby Geist. Our development team is at a new house engine. Anthony, the thirty for thirty team. Also includes Deirdre Fenton, Jennifer, THORP cath, Saint he'd weezer Janice Maria Delgado, Tom Picard, Paul Williams eve wolf and Alex Bowen, the peon audio team includes trod Keller, Tom Ricks, Meghan, judge peachy and see Ryan, Glenn or Devon McGowan and Elizabeth Fierman especial. Thanks to Lee Burke, Emily Birt's, Dan courts. Joe Cummings Anson Dorrance Lauren. Greg John Lingle and Casey CJ. Our theme music was composed by Rishikesh here way. Be sure to subscribe to thirty for thirty podcasts in the ESPN app. Apple podcasts Spotify or wherever you listen. If you haven't gone back and listen to our first four seasons. Go ahead and do that before season five arrives in you phone later this summer soon with more thirty thirty.

ESPN US Meredith Jackie little soccer Kabali Ryan Joe Cummings Anson Dorrance La development team Jody advocate Salt Lake City Greg John Lingle Jones Barrick Laura Linden Meese Andrew homes Aaron Liden Andrew MAMBO VIN de Anton Sam
"jody advocate" Discussed on 30 For 30 Podcasts

30 For 30 Podcasts

05:26 min | 1 year ago

"jody advocate" Discussed on 30 For 30 Podcasts

"Here at thirty for thirty. We tried to reward our listeners with great stories deep reporting and compelling characters. Everyone loves a reward. That's why discover is committed to rewarding their new card members with cash back match. Only. Discover offers the dollar for dollar match all the cash back you've earned at the end of your first year automatically no caps. No sign ups. Redeem your rewards in any amount at anytime, and they never expire with all the extra cash. You can get great seats to game a concert, maybe vice new headphones. Listen to your favorite podcast, doc, try it and believe it at discover dot com slash match only for new card members. Limitations apply. Welcome to thirty for thirty podcasts from ESPN films and ESPN audio. My name is Jody advocate. This week episode three of our fourth season. A story all about hippodrome moment of protest in long. Distance running running is the most popular form of exercise in the world today around the globe. There are more than thousand marathons annually. But before the nineteen seventies running, especially here in the United States was a fringe sport. No, one even made running shoes in the United States. But for women runners the trouble went way past the lack of shoes women were actively discouraged from running for a number of reasons both within the running community, and by society at large this week story is about a time. When that started to change time bracketed by two key moments captured in two key, photographs one you may have seen the other oddly. Not this episode was produced by transmitter media. Hillary Frank is our host here we go with the six. Mm sat. When I was a young girl people, even the milkman the mailman would go to my mother and say is there something wrong with your little girl? I see her out running people. What are they running from? Where are they going? Is there a problem? They throw something out the window at you from a car, you know, maybe like piece of paper or a soda bottle. Everybody's dog would chase. You wanna bite you? I remember an incident running around with my running buddies all women and some guy came up and pinched one of us on the rump. And my girlfriend's was say to me if you do that you're going to get big legs. You're going to look like a boy, you're going to grow hair on your chest. When Katherine Switzer was starting high school in nineteen Fifty-nine. She wanted to get on the field hockey team. Her father told her she'd make it if she ran a mile every day, she took it advice and she made the team, but she fell in love with running. I never felt closer to my body or to nature or should the universe or to God. Or whatever you want to call it. Then when I was running and so- running in itself, always made me feel totally confident brave courageous and at one with my total sense of capability so much. So that in nineteen sixty seven Catherine found herself training to run a marathon. But people would say, oh, you shouldn't do that. You're never going to have children and your uterus is going to fall out even her doctor thought, it was a bad idea. I mentioned to him that I was running and I'll never forget because he was sitting across from me at his desk with a cigarette. And he said something like why would an attractive woman like you want to be running a marathon, you really can impair your ability to conceive in your uterus because you're going to be constantly impacting it and pounding the pavement. I would definitely not recommend this because you could you know, have a prolapsed uterus. This idea was something a lot of doctors believed at the time. I just remember walking out of the office and saying, you know, this is really such B S. You know, if you have children is going to be much more injurious to your system than. Running. He didn't see it that way, obviously, not only with Catherine up against doctors who didn't take her running seriously. She was also up against an entire industry and sports media who didn't take women seriously. Outstanding boulders in the women's division. Noted for her beauty of form. Of course. That's bowling form. Is Tilley Taylor. We'll good luck to all of you girls. And or is it women? I guess that's the word. You can call us. Anything you want because we love you come in give atop. This is Brian Madden. Enjoying himself in the York. But then in nineteen sixty seven Catherine made running history unim- probably best known as the woman who broke the gender barrier at the Boston marathon. It has been all male event. But today somewhere among the thousand pair of hairy leg somewhere in this world of Lyneham it vapor there was perfume and women in past years. A few other women had snuck into the Boston marathon, most famously Bobby Gabe who had run faster times than many men, but Catherine was the first

Catherine Katherine Switzer United States ESPN Boston Brian Madden Jody advocate Hillary Frank bowling York hockey Tilley Taylor Bobby Gabe
"jody advocate" Discussed on FiveThirtyEight Politics

FiveThirtyEight Politics

14:06 min | 2 years ago

"jody advocate" Discussed on FiveThirtyEight Politics

"Check it for free. It won't affect your credit. Go ahead. Take two minutes check what your rate would. Be for a new loan from upstart. And the best part is that once your loan approved, the funds will be transferred to the very next business day over one hundred thousand people have used up, start to do all sorts of things. Pay off credit cards, fund a wedding or simply make a large purchase. Now, it's your turn, go to upstart dot com. Slash politics find out how low your upstart rate is. It takes only two minutes to check. It will not affect your credit. That's upstart dot com. Slash politics. We're back and we have a new Senate for cast. Remember when was it last Thursday and then Thursday and there were there wasn't model tuck an excellent model talk with Nate and Gaylon last Thursday. But I'm curious to hear what Claire and Mike are learning from that model. So as of this taping forecast shows that Democrats have five and six chance of taking the house that's in the house forecast percentage points up from last week, and then the newly published Senate forecast shows the Republicans are favored to retain the Senate, a two in three chance. Just about the same as it was when we. Published on Thursday. There are a lot of interesting races, maybe some unexpected forecast within that Senate model. So cleared at anything pop out at you at the state level when you took a look? Yeah, there were number states that I think are interesting, and maybe I'll just do quick run through and then mica weekend kind of chat about like things that you thought were interesting. But I mean, I think the top, I'd say my top three that I think our interest will be interesting racist to watch because I think they're going to be really close our Florida, Texas, and Tennessee, Florida and Texas because there and I think the the forecast shows us decently close races, Florida has a governor running against incumbent Senator. So that's interesting. Now the governor is a little bit more high profile sometimes unpopular running against the Senator who's a pretty low key dude Bill Nelson versus Rick Scott. And then in Texas, you've got a pretty red state, but a a democrat candidate and beta work running against Ted Cruz democratic candidate who seems to be appealing. To a soft middle of independent voters who might be inclined to defect from crews then in Tennessee. You know, our model doesn't give a great shot to Phil Bredesen's who's a former. He's the democratic candidate, former governor of the state run against Marsha Blackburn currently gives Blackburn seven and Chen chance of winning. I think that that race will be closer personal opinion. Hot take because I think that he has. A, he's an, he's a known entity in the state. He's, you know, he was, I think, pretty decently like governor. And I think because of the red environment of that state where the modeled leans more towards Bachman. But I do think that's that's going to be close one. And I don't know. I don't like their other. The other things I think are interesting places like West Virginia, North Dakota, like you know, West Virginia, I think is actually interesting because it shows the power of a no name in smaller statement. Yeah, totally. No there there are few bucket, so I agree that Tennessee and Texas. Super interesting. I also think maybe the model is a little low on on the Democrats chances in in Tennessee. I was surprised that the model was so bullish on all the red state. Democrats, the model has Heidi Heitkamp as a slight favorite in North Dakota, Claire mccaskill as a slight favorite in Missouri. Mansion as clear mentioned as a strong favourite in West Virginia, Joe Donnelly as a moderate favorite in Indiana. So so the model has all those all those incumbent Democrats in red states favored which if Democrats are going to have any chance to to take the Senate, they need to run the table there now, just because the model has favored doesn't mean all of them will win. But I think I think what the model is looking at his like in a very friendly, democratic environment. It's hard to lose as an incumbent, you know, it's, but so so so that as a group I found interesting and then I don't know. I guess we have to take Beto as a as a serious chant having a serious chance. The have the piece up on this race later this week. But I, I think that state is interesting given that cruise has such a solidified national reputation and aerobic is not known by a lot by decent portion of the Texas electric and is in the process of making an impression on them. A lot of people. If you look at the breakdown and polls, you know, you'll see twenty to twenty five percent or sort of undecided about him, but everyone has an opinion about cruise, good or bad. And I think that's sort of as you as will watch the race go on for the next couple months. People will tighten and have more opinions about him Bill. You know, there's gonna be more ads and everything, and I'm interested to see what happens with those, you know, independent voters who are not wed to cruise, Texas is a red state. So you would tend to think that a decent number of those independent identifying people are actually. Republican-leaning. But also I think a rock is an attractive candidate who is new and running against a particularly disliked candidate in some ways. An Aurora. I think I think that's an important part point right now. Rourke seems like a very strong candidate and he needs to be. So he has to basically run a perfect campaign. I think to pull this off n have the national environment favor him. We're, we're probably gonna talk about Texas a lot between now and the election. But one question on that that I'm thinking, you know, in the wake of the twenty sixteen election, we had a lot of conversations in our team about kind of how we saw that race develop and some lessons that we learned. And I mean, I know I'm going to try and thread this needle a little bit, but one thing we talk on Mike, I, you know, you said the specifically was that when you see a candidate who has you know the buzz and the enthusiasm, and you know, frankly, I think even said, you hear stories at one came in his all the yard signs and one candidate doesn't him one candidates having rallies that people really excite. Fid about and going viral, and another doesn't. You shouldn't totally discount that even though we're fivethirtyeight. So is there any element of that with this Texas race that's like maybe we would have reviewing it slightly different now than we would have three or four years ago because we've learned to not totally discount that buzz element. I'm not sure. Do we ever totally discount up? I guess. When we talked about Sanders and Trump we reflected and said that we needed to not totally dismissed the fact that Sanders having these rallies where bunch of you were showing up element, I wouldn't. I remember conversation. Conversely, I wouldn't necessarily tie this race to twenty sixteen in that way. I would tie this race to more or rooks fundraising, which is very healthy and that shows critic enthusiasm, two years after Trump. I do think that you know, he's made a big to do about visiting all the counties in Texas, even the rural ones. Right? So that's probably a reaction to twenty sixteen. But I do think that like Texas is in the midst of these decades, long shift to, we've got to build a viable base forever and turn the state blue, and I guess I would connect. I wouldn't say so much. Listen, you're always going to have an enthusiastic base of people who will fill out little town halls or, you know, have the yard signs, particularly in a, you know, when they're not in the incumbent party in the White House in a midterm year, I'd say it's more how much money has this guy raise nationally quite a bit more than Cruz. That's an indication of enthusiasm and. And the effects that I would say twenty sixteen more so than like the the visuals of there isn't. Yard signs with Nate? Not in the room because I know that I'm gonna blow his gas, I'm pro yards. I mean the the, the visuals, the buzz in this case points in the same direction as everything else. Which may be as reason to to pay attention to it. There is something weird though in like Texas is competitive, competitive, Tennessee is competitive, but also like why? Why then is our like Nevada, Arizona, so close. Also, there's like there's something jarring about Nevada being basically a toss up Arizona being basically a toss up, but then also like Tennessee being basically a toss up or Texas think I'm not making a value judge necessarily on this. But like you know, Jodi you were talking about buzz earlier on Texas. They're actually lots of competitive races on this map. I think people from both party wanna think flick about the full map, but let's let's be blunt about this. People have been right at the media, I think, has been hyping Rourke because it's a sexy story to say, God, there's viable Democratic Senate in Texas America loves a handsome, white man, and America loves to hate on Ted Cruz. And like, let's be blunt about. Those things that take that, what what do we mean? When we say buzz, it's frankly a lot of those elements. And so you know, other races don't have that even though they're just as close. Let me defend the media for one second. First of all, without is important in that Fisher gifts democrat to a nother piece on the board that they could potentially win, and they are really wanting for pieces. Second, as as gala mentioned on Montauk Beto is just a dashing figure. Said he said he was going to my point about the media, Mike one one last thing because we've been getting a lot of questions about this. And I think the next model talk will go into this more in depth, but we now have to forecasts out. We have a Senate forecast and we have the house forecast. We've been getting a lot of questions about if and how and whether people should combine these two and people are obviously starting to think about the possibilities of what are the chances of the Democrats taking both the house and the Senator, what are the chances of them taking the combination or potentially Republicans taking both? So how how do we? How do we wait he's together so the the because as mentioned, it is one model, the model actually calculates the probability of each of those scenarios happening, right? I wouldn't buy like one of our one of our colleagues when we launch Senate model asked well, are Democrats chances of taking both just their chances in the house multiplied by their chances in the Senate. And the answer is no, because they're not independent events, right? Basically, you have the same input in this case, how Americans feel and who they want to vote for, but being filtered into two different things in the house. It's four hundred thirty five races and how those districts are drawn where the incumbents are, what sheets are open. And in the Senate, you have thirty five races in different states and different incumbent and not filter on the Senate side is much much worse for for Democrats than than it is on the house side. On the house side, Democrats still have a disadvantage. All that Ted D'amoto calculates odds of each narrow and Democrats, chances of winning both the Senate and the house are basically the same as their chances of winning the Senate because in a world where they win the Senate, it means they had a really good night generally and they most likely mean that feels like the simplest sort of takeaway. We can give our listeners which if you wanna think about the chances of them taking both just look at the Senate forecast because. If that happens, then it's less than one percent chance that they win the Senate and and lose the house, right? Yeah. So we, this is these numbers are a little bit out of date, but the forecast having changed much. So these numbers haven't changed that much according to the classic version of our model. There is about a one in three chance at Democrats win the Senate and the house. So it's basically their chance to win the Senate right there is a less than one percent chance that Democrats win the Senate, but failed to win the ham, right? It's basically impossible. There is a about a one in two chance of a fifty percent chance that Democrats lose two Senate, but win house. That's the modal outcome here, right? And there's about one in five chance that Republicans keep both chambers. Okay. And that will continue to shift a little bit, but it's important to look at these together. Okay, we're going to ramp clear Malone. Thanks as always. Thanks Mike Cohen. Thank you. My pleasure. And I just want to apologize to all the all the great people living along lakes. The whole thing sent me beautiful pictures of their shorelines, which I very nice. Shallowest greatly. And thus these used to warm up in the summer listeners a heads up that tickets to our live show. Next Monday. New York are sold. I've never done before. My first thought good for you. Look, we will certainly see a member of you and for the rest of you a heads up that since we will be recording at a live show next Monday evening, the audio from that will hit your podcast feed a little bit later than usual nervous about it. Any pets don't don't wear skirt, highchair highchair tables are I mean tears are sexist day Japan. Now in my rider, the chairs backs. So I would say, make sure that your has back mica and don't work. My strategy is going to be, don't try to be funny. Think that's actually an excellent strategy. Just let it naturally come up the way always. My name is Jody advocate. Gallinger producer, Tony, Chow is in control. You can get in touch by emailing us podcasts at five thirty, eight dot com. You can also of course tweet at us with any questions or comments about the show. Thanks again for listening and we'll see assume.

Senate Texas Tennessee Mike Cohen Ted Cruz Democrats Claire mccaskill Nate Senator Rourke Phil Bredesen Trump West Virginia White House Heidi Heitkamp Joe Donnelly Bachman Beto
"jody advocate" Discussed on FiveThirtyEight Politics

FiveThirtyEight Politics

06:15 min | 2 years ago

"jody advocate" Discussed on FiveThirtyEight Politics

"Should I read mate, tweet live as a way of getting him on the show via Twitter in general, election related punditry is a few weeks behind the actual data, but once it comes up the shift and pulls it both exaggerates swings an overestimate, precision, underestimates, uncertainty. Welcome to the five thirty politics podcast. My name is Jody advocate. Tomorrow is the Super Tuesday of the two thousand eighteen midterm. Primaries are we go with that doesn't born that calling Super Tuesday. We didn't go at that on the site if we talked about it just like a big primary day. Okay. So somewhere in the ranger, hey, it's a big primary day to eight is Super Tuesday that is happening tomorrow. Eight states are holding primary spanning pretty much every region of the country just to lay them out there. They are Alabama, Mississippi, New Jersey Isla, South Dakota, Montana, New Mexico. And finally, California rear going to preview a number of those, not all of them, but then we're really going to focus on California which will be the last to report results and conveniently where there's the most suspense. So we're gonna talk about those racist, but also some of the larger political trends in California over the past few decades here to do that. Politics writer Claire Malone. Hello, Claire and politics editor make a Cohen. Hello, Mike. Hello and nates overs out today. So it's just the three of us. Nathan. Vegas really. Wow. We got a real Ewing theory game brewing here without our without mate year. Prime firmly believe we're better without. Let's not. Let's begin with tomorrow. Super Tuesday and California. So there are a number of significant primaries taking place there. It's also just an interesting time to take stock of California politics and general Claire wrote a great piece on the site today, describing the state's political transformation yet really great piece sort of through the lens of Senator Dianne Feinstein very well edited piece. I might add as well. Suck up. Great. Well, Chad, did a great job, so we'll get into some of those trends. But I feel like anytime you talk about this California primary happening tomorrow, you kinda have to quick explainer of the nature of the primary who wants to take a crack at why California's primaries are different structurally than some of the others. It's the jungle primary, which is the sort of like nickname that we have given these primaries that California's sort of most prominently uses and it's, they started doing them in twenty twelve, but it's basically where the top two vote getters regardless of party move on from the primary to the general election. And it was initially supposed to be this thing where they were trying to get rid of sort of the hardcore partisanship of primaries. So Democrats electing really, really left candidates Republicans electing really, really or nominating, really, really right candidates, and they wanted to find more moderates coming to the general election, but what's happened that has become a thorn in the side of both parties is. Is that they're running into problems where they'll get a number of candidates from each party that might basically what I think of the cannibalize each other's votes. And so you might knock out strong contenders and unintentionally seizure race to candidates from the other party. So it's it's kind of a messy, unloved process in California these days. So just the paint, the picture of your voter in California. You walk into the polling booth tomorrow with, doesn't matter whether you're registered Republican or democrat or independent. You see just one big group candidates and you just pick and then top to go through. Exactly, yeah. Did we out the jungle primary? Was that our appelation or someone we didn't top two primary jungle primary. So let's Hugh jungle boogie please. I don't think we've the rights to that, but yes, listeners in your head, you can sing jungle boot or that that credence. They were not better. Okay. So let's see how I mean. I think there's a lot of wrinkles is Claire pointed out about how this plays apples do that by way of looking at some particular races there, anywhere this jungle primary is going to actually sorta shake out an interesting ways, Mike several. So most of the attention about how the how the top two primary could screw party has actually been on, it could screw Democrats and and it could. There are few house races district thirty nine forty eight, forty nine in particular, maybe a couple others where you have more than a dozen candidates overall and among Democrats you have, let's say four to eight in those three districts. But you also have six, Dave Republicans in each of those running, but they're, they're not just any candidates viable well-funded candidate. And so those districts, there's a fear that as Claire put it, the candidates could cannibalize each other's vote leaving just a couple well-funded Republicans remaining. And then the November election in those house districts is between just to. Republicans or even just one Republican. One democrat went in fact, maybe could have been between two Democrats, but they get, yes. Oh, spread the worst case scenario for them as for Democrats, the Republicans, it would be Republican. Yeah, I think in these districts in particular part of the reason they again thirty nine forty eight forty, nine part of the reason they attracted to many well-funded candidate is because they're competitive district. So if you had a quote unquote, fair primary, I don't think you'd end up with Democrats, but look like, this is a these are mess at really anything could happen. Yeah. And maybe just pull out to talk about it a little bit to get people respective. I mean, we think that California's gonna be, you know, if if they're what twenty three states that need to flip the house, California has a huge number of these districts that voted Clinton, but traditionally lean Republican that the house seats belong to Republicans. It's also created some inter-party strife because the d triple c, you know is is sort of putting its thumb on the scale for candidate thinks that are better suited or better-funded to win these districts. And that's caused a lot of hurt feelings within the party, especially supporters and candidates who

California Claire Malone Twitter Dave Republicans Mike Jody advocate Senator Dianne Feinstein Ewing Nathan Alabama Vegas Chad writer Cohen editor South Dakota Mississippi Montana New Jersey
"jody advocate" Discussed on FiveThirtyEight Politics

FiveThirtyEight Politics

01:40 min | 2 years ago

"jody advocate" Discussed on FiveThirtyEight Politics

"Kinda sponsor the show i'm gonna buy ad time in which i just then can rebut yeah make my points what the politics podcast my name is jody advocate there's lots discussed on this rainy monday i dunno listen you are but i want you to know that we are also receiving scary alerts about flash floods and our phone i have to change my shoes she's wearing old new down so listeners feel bad i as we are wet i'm scared i experienced snow in kansas city this past weekend yeah here's what's today's show will start with a look at how americans feel about foreign intervention this of course in the wake of the us air strikes on syria that president trump ordered on friday night and we're executed on saturday morning we will check in on former fbi director james comey his new book comes i've heard about that it's comi week at bumped infrastructure week yet again but if we could combine the two and i guess the main thing will do is ask whether we are actually learning anything new during this komi week here to mark the occasion at her and she faints over hello nate hey jodie okay we're getting better that was that week nobody was there was there was a level of effort that i politics reporter clear malone hey clara he should we just do the cavs lost sixers one thing right now and get out of the way guess he could if you're dick.

kansas city us syria trump cavs president fbi director james comey nate reporter
"jody advocate" Discussed on FiveThirtyEight Politics

FiveThirtyEight Politics

01:39 min | 2 years ago

"jody advocate" Discussed on FiveThirtyEight Politics

"Welcome to the five thirty politics podcast my name is jody advocate perhaps you've noticed that there's a lot of news out there a lot of news we're actually going to narrow it way down today and spend basically the whole show on one story one question state of the russia investigation and big question it seems to be kind of the question of the moment what would happen if donald trump fired robert mullet here to answer that question not right now this is just the insurance so here technically to say hello heterogeneous over nate hello and he did it he really brought it clear malone can you up to that billing clair's already exasperated that's reporter clam alone and politics editor mike a is here hello everybody city we got two great lows and and neat one other note at the end of the show we're going to a quick primer on the illinois third district primary which is taking place tomorrow because while we think it's interesting and because we can go from big stuff about robert mueller to very narrow stuff about the illinois third district primary that's that's our show but this question trump and muller it's very much on the mind probably for good reason so let's just lay out what happened over the last few days that has thinking about this you guys can jump in and help me if if i missed anything starting on friday attorney general jeff sessions fired former fbi deputy director andrew mccabe based on a recommendation from the f b i this office they found misconduct by mccabe related to a conversation with a reporter we can get into that if we'd like but people also see mccabe as an ally james komi and he's been under attack by the president for a long time so that set off a lot.

president james komi andrew mccabe attorney illinois mike a editor russia jody donald trump reporter deputy director fbi jeff sessions robert mueller clair robert mullet
"jody advocate" Discussed on 30 For 30 Podcasts

30 For 30 Podcasts

01:40 min | 2 years ago

"jody advocate" Discussed on 30 For 30 Podcasts

"Jody ever again here i'm glad you're enjoying 3432 on yasser part of a special collection of sports audio documentaries from espn films were finding the best sports stories right now and to do that were behind the wheel of the many countryman the biggest any yet these of pussy course the find great sport stories if the get out into the world and follow your instincts that's where the mini countryman's all wheel drive comes in handy with all four we can chase down a story in the city the country and most places in between podcast equipment isn't very bulky but even if were hauling a lot of gear there's plenty of cargo space for all your stuff and if a few of our producers tag along no problem the mini countryman comfortably seats five adults the countryman meaty big but it's still drives again many thanks to the twin power turbo engine no matter what story you're chasing the mini countryman will help you find it it's available now and so we're thirty for 30 podcasts visit many usacomcountrymen today you're listening to 30 for thirty plus presented by the many country my name is jody advocate this is our place to talk about some of the episodes from this season of thirty for thirty podcasts and today we're discussing nadan ski the documentary about the creation of the madden video game franship's 3432 andrew mambo was the lead producer on this episode and he is your host for today he spoke with dave new power of nfl films who produce this episode and audio producer emma jacobs also part of the team that put it together so here's andrew talking with dave and emma andrew take it away.

Jody franship producer emma jacobs espn andrew mambo dave nfl emma andrew
"jody advocate" Discussed on 30 For 30 Podcasts

30 For 30 Podcasts

01:41 min | 3 years ago

"jody advocate" Discussed on 30 For 30 Podcasts

"This is jody african thanks for listening to espn films thirty for thirty podcasts were each story is made by different team of unique talented producers wondering where to find talented folks for your company if you've ever had to build a team you know it's not easy and that's where ziprecruiter comes in with ziprecruiter you can post your job to a hundred or more jobsites with just one click and then they're powerful technology efficiently matches the right people to your job better than anyone else that's why over 80 percent of jobs posted on ziprecruiter get a qualified candidate in just one day experienced ziprecruiter difference and find out today why ziprecruiter has been used by businesses of all sizes to find the most talented qualified job candidates with immediate results and right now listeners to the show can post jobs on ziprecruiter for free just go to ziprecruitercomtalk for thirty that's ziprecruiter dot com slash thirty for thirty from espn films and espn audio you're listening to thirty for thirty plus presented by the mini countryman my name is jody advocate this is our series of bonus conversations inbetween seasons conversations between me and filmmakers about some recent thirty two thirty phil we're going to be bringing you five of these conversations in the runup to our next season of original documentaries which launches on november fourteen this week on thirty for thirty plus the story of the largest single day mass arrest in the history of the us marshals it's a stating that took place in 1985 in washington dc and was fuelled by an elaborate and very clever they and switch.

ziprecruiter phil us espn jody washington 80 percent one day
"jody advocate" Discussed on 30 For 30 Podcasts

30 For 30 Podcasts

02:07 min | 3 years ago

"jody advocate" Discussed on 30 For 30 Podcasts

"Stay tuned for a preview of the next episode behind every athlete team or victory is a story yes pean films thirty for thirty podcast brings you these stories there's a story behind lumut blue moon belgian white of belgian style which beer was born in a ballpark it started as the sandlot brewery inside chorus field at the beginning of the 1995 baseball season one beer turned into a roster of beers and the clear fan favorite then called belly side which is known today as bloom belgian white coming up next on thirty for thirty podcasts we are all about to witness an event that never happened before and television sports a top boxing contender coming inside the walls of a prison to fight an inmate even god's the light james the love the idea that this site was a he he knew was it would do something if they could to stop it they still caught up in mojo in the atmosphere to watch a fight in the shame ruler riot started batch where i wanted to have the fight 'cause i want that room recover suffering differ it was not pressuring mouse issues route thanks for listening to thirty for thirty podcast my name is jody advocate this episode was producer reported by rose evola our producers are andrew mambo and julia lower henderson and taylor barfield and k mcauliffe our production mixing sound design and original music for this episode by ryan ross met conner shell in libya guys they're executive producer for espn films erin light in a senior producer and adam newhouse is director development that espn films team includes deirdra fenton jenna anthony ryan lantau catherine he jennifer thorpe and calling.

k mcauliffe ryan ross conner shell executive producer producer adam newhouse jody andrew mambo taylor barfield espn jennifer thorpe
"jody advocate" Discussed on 30 For 30 Podcasts

30 For 30 Podcasts

01:42 min | 3 years ago

"jody advocate" Discussed on 30 For 30 Podcasts

"Thanks for listening to thirty for thirty podcasts my name is jody advocate this episode was produced in reported by rose avalanche our producers are andrew mambo and julia lowery henderson deliver field and kate mcauliffe our production assistance mixing sound design and original music for this episode by ryan ross met khanna show in league ice their executive producer for yet skin films erin lighting a senior producer and adam newhouse is director of the velopment that espn films team includes theater fenton jin anthony ryan intel catherine sinking jennifer thorpe and colin fleming the s p an audio team includes trunk keller tom rix meghan judge peach yunessi me and ryan grand especial thanks to ryan hurley ray demand rodney velez air an rj santillo a he has pm new york xi yang park did archival research and roger jackson provided fat checking for this episode we got production help from cast graham dawe share licet seena jason titley andy ingle males and fianna them special thanks the emily khandan and to end daniels sue riches and victoria humphreys for their archive of footage from the ice special thanks the pen hata and joe sites are theme music was composed by risheh case here way of the podcast song exploded were posting lots of extras on twitter instagram and facebook if you want see a picture of the women on the ice give us a paula and you can sign up for newsletter to our website thirty for thirty podcast dot com be sure to subscribe to thirty for thirty podcast in the espn or apple podcast we'll be back next week with more thirty for third.

jody apple twitter risheh graham dawe rodney velez ryan hurley colin fleming jennifer thorpe espn khanna kate mcauliffe julia lowery henderson andrew mambo ryan ross espn paula facebook victoria humphreys daniels emily khandan roger jackson yang park director adam newhouse producer executive producer
"jody advocate" Discussed on FiveThirtyEight Politics

FiveThirtyEight Politics

01:35 min | 3 years ago

"jody advocate" Discussed on FiveThirtyEight Politics

"Do you think disney executives get to see walt disney's cryogenicallyfrozen body have you seen it you sean tell when more level up a fight yeah after five years mickey mouse comes by in one night and takes you to defeat his new land welcome to the 530 politics podcast my name is jody advocate let's jump right into the shouted because there's a lot to discuss and we're going to devote the entirety of today's show to the senate healthcare bill which was released late last week in his potentially going to get voted on later this week so quick process quick intro data might into it here to discuss arrangements over kalanick pelagic politics works ira malone high clerked page at each and wiz katy perry anton will harry allah i guess we should wait before we talk about healthcare and point out that there is some big breaking news usually pick breaking news occurred after we record with the supreme court decided to buck that trend by giving us big news justice we were coming into the studio today so i want a quick reactions before we get to healthcare which is really the story this week though this is becoming the story of today the supreme court said that they were going to hear a case about the trump administration's travel ban this fall but harry there are some implications for right now rights what an essentially it was reinstated for right now at least in parts of let's say you have a family member within the united states are say you're at the university of hawaii.

walt disney mickey mouse jody advocate supreme court travel ban united states disney senate ira malone university of hawaii five years