24 Burst results for "Jim Grant"
Bloomberg Radio New York
"jim grant" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"A financial historian and journalist, an investment strategist, perhaps best known for his book, devil takes the hindmost, a history of financial speculation, and let's start with this quote that I like from a 19th century trader, James Keane, all life is speculation, the spirit of speculation is born with men. Tell us about that. Well, I mean, the act of speculation is to look out into the future the word speculator is Latin and was a Roman military guard, whose job was to look out and see whether the speculate on danger to the Goths were coming out of the hill. In particular, when you get into financial markets, the capitalist world, you are always trying to anticipate what's going on. In that sense, even people who describe themselves as investors are also necessarily speculators, but when we talk about speculation, we often talk about sort of unfounded or irrational or dangerous gambling type tendencies. So that leads me to the question, what is the actual difference between speculation and investing clearly they're both a gamble on the future? Is it about the amount of risk taken and the psychology of the person involved? Or is it something a little more quantitative? You've read schedules where are all the customers yachts. And do you remember there, he says, the difference between speculation and investment. Is that speculation is an attempt, normally unsuccessful, to turn a little amount of money into a lot, whereas in investment is an attempt normally successful to make sure a lot of money doesn't become a little. French went, right? Is that right? So embedded in that is the idea is that the speculator is going to be taking more risk. And not concerned with preservation of capital the way an investor might be, is that the speculator called the book devastate the high most. And that is really reflection of what they call the greater full theory of investment is our buy a shibu inu coin. And sell it to you, Barry. When they're about because I think Barry is the bigger sucker than I am. And that he'll take it off me from a bigger price. That's the sort of Ponzi scheme or pyramid. The chain letter dynamic to a speculative bubble. And the other aspect of the speculator is it often gets lured into envisioning how the world will be and kept drawn into these new technologies, and the speculator, the trouble is that they look into the future, they imagine the future is actually much closer than it turns out to be, and so you could say that their operating with sort of hyperbolically discounting the future or just say they have too low a discount rate. So they're drawing everything forward, and even with the Internet, which, as we know, established and changed their one's life within short period of time, even then, Judas and stop the NASDAQ, coming down by more than 75%, a lot of these dot com businesses flaming out. That's really quite fascinating. So I mentioned earlier, the book comes out in June 99, pretty auspicious timing. But it raises the question with the publication of your new book, how often does history repeat itself are all of these bubbles and manias and collapses pretty much the same playbook that just substitute Internet for railroads, substitute houses for telegrams, do all these things just follow the same sort of cycle just forward in history. Well, Jim grant has a comment that as he says, we're always stepping on the same rake, and I have a friend of mine financial strategies that is in Edinburgh called Russell Napier, ranze. Oh, I know the name. He wrote a book on he wrote a book called the anatomy of the bear. The bear, that's really excellent book. He has a financial library in Edinburgh called the library of mistakes. And the idea is that you can learn everything you need to know in finance and for an investment career by actually working out the mistakes people have made. Although I should add, you know, certainly doesn't help you on the short side, betting against Specter bubbles. When I was at GMO we, colleague and I ran a sort of quantitative analysis of a respective bubbles, and we crunch, released my assistant, did, 10,000 years of data, of various commodity markets and real estate markets and stock markets around the world. And what we found is that bubbles are indeterminate in length. And there also indeterminate as to how high they can go. So if you don't know how long the bubbles are going to last and how high it's going to rise, then you might be able to identify a bubble, and I don't think that's frankly that hard. And I think that's useful if you're just a long only investor, you can stay out of the bubble market. But the timing on the downside is really difficult. Yeah, and I think what we've been the last decade, we had people were talking
Odd Lots
Fresh update on "jim grant" discussed on Odd Lots
"How much do these like long cycles sort of correspond with like essentially ideas that are invoked? You have to wonder whether the direction of causation. Richard Russell, who's a marvelous technician and thinker about markets who was no longer with us, was the author of the epigraph, Markets Make Opinions. And this, I think there's something to the idea that phases of economic life, whether they be markets or a nine to five world of actually producing things, as it were, that the background music of enterprise kind of conjures ideas. I'm not sure if ideas cause that. Maybe they might. Well, these ideas are recurrent. I mean, I'm told that generation, what comes after Z? I don't know. Whatever my daughter, I don't know. I've got to find out what that is. They're socialists, apparently. So, we'll reinvent that one again. I've given you a very poor answer to an excellent question, Joe. That's all right. Well, just on the notion of these long -term cycles maybe starting to shift, it does feel like previous decades were about sort of lower interest rates. And during those previous decades, we basically built the financial system around the assumption that government bonds are the safest thing out there. Super safe. Super safe. Government bonds, the yields don't move around that much. And yet, in the previous year, we have seen big question marks around the safety of government bonds and the stability of yields, which have resulted in a few things breaking to your earlier point. We saw troubles at the bank. The Fed reporting an accounting loss on its own balance sheet. What does it mean for the financial system as we move into potentially a higher rate environment or a higher vol environment for rates? I think one of the ideas that has sustained markets over the past called generation is the idea of Federal Reserve competence, the notion that people at the Fed know what they're doing and can make things happen. They are weathermakers in finance and they're responsible for the great moderation. They're responsible earlier for Paul Volcker is mastery of the inflation problem. So I think that the Fed will be revealed as a bunch of well -intended people who are involved in a kind of pseudoscience and people will wake up one day and say, I noticed that my weather app is accurate for a day or two, but out 10 days, I wouldn't bet my dog's life on it. And yet we listen patiently, even reverentially The economists at the Fed talk about what's going to happen next month or next year. They know nothing. I The future is a closed book. The screenwriter named Goldman, Butch Sundance, Ken and others, such great. And he said, apropos of Hollywood's forecasting and building. Nobody knows anything simply in Goldman, correct, correct as the fashion of future. The difference is that the Fed thinks it knows something. Coming up next, we take a closer look at the current state of markets with the legend Jim Grant. You're listening to Odd Lots on Bloomberg Radio. Also make sure to subscribe to Odd the Lots podcast on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. I'm Joe Weisenthal. I'm of your energy, increase your concentration, and receive up to $200 while learning how. Call or text now. This new stress management program is part of a black health and resiliency project. Sound too
Bloomberg Radio New York
"jim grant" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"A financial historian and journalist, an investment strategist, perhaps best known for his book, devil takes the hindmost, a history of financial speculation, and let's start with this quote that I like from a 19th century trader, James Keane, all life is speculation, the spirit of speculation is born with men. Tell us about that. Well, I mean, the act of speculation is to look out into the future the word speculator is Latin and was a Roman military guard, whose job was to look out and see whether the speculate on danger the Goths were coming out of the hill. And in particular, when you get into financial markets, the capitalist world, you are always trying to anticipate what's going on. In that sense, even people who describe themselves as investors are also necessarily speculators. But when we talk about speculation, we often talk about sort of unfounded or irrational or dangerous gambling type tendencies. So that leads me to the question, what is the actual difference between speculation and investing clearly they're both a gamble on the future? Is it about the amount of risk taken and the psychology of the person involved? Or is it something a little more quantitative? You've read shreds where are all the customers yachts. And do you remember there, he says, the difference between speculation and investment is that speculation is an attempt, normally unsuccessful, to turn a little amount of money into a lot, whereas in investment is an attempt normally successful to make sure a lot of money doesn't become a little. French went, right? Right. So embedded in that is the idea is that the speculator is going to be taking more risk. And not concerned with preservation of capital the way an investor might be, is that the speculator called the book devastate the home most. And that is really reflection of the what they call the greater full theory of investment is our buy a shibu inu coin. Or an NFT, and sell it to you, Barry. When there are because I think Barry is the bigger sucker than I am. And that he'll take it off me from a bigger price. That's the sort of Ponzi scheme or pyramid. The chain letter dynamic to a speculative bubble. And the other aspect of the speculator is he often gets lord into envisioning how the world will be and gets drawn into these new technologies, and the speculator, the trouble is that they look into the future. They imagine the future is actually much closer than it turns out to be, and so you could say that their operating with sort of hyperbolically discounting the future or just say they have two lower discount rates. So they're drawing everything forward, and even with the incident, which, as we know, established and changed it once life within short period of time, even then, Judaism stopped the NASDAQ, coming down by more than 75%. A lot of these dotcom businesses flaming out. That's really quite fascinating. So I mentioned earlier, the book comes out in June 99, pretty auspicious time in. But it raises the question with the publication of your new book, how often does history repeat itself are all of these bubbles and manias and collapses pretty much the same playbook that just substitute Internet for railroads, substitute houses for telegrams, do all these things just follow the same sort of cycle just forward in history. Well, Jim grant has a comment that, as he says, we're always stepping on the same rake, and I have a friend of mine, a financial strategist, lives in Edinburgh, called Russell Napier, runs a. Oh, I know the name. He wrote a book on he wrote a book called the anatomy of the bear. The bear, that's really excellent book. He has a financial library in Edinburgh called the library of mistakes. And the idea is that you can learn everything you need to know and finance for an investment career by actually working out the mistakes people have made. Although I should add, you know, certainly doesn't help you on the short side. Betting against Specter bubbles, when I was at GMO we, colleague and I ran a sort of quantitative analysis of a speck of bubbles, and we crunch, released my assistant, did, 10,000 years of data, of various commodity markets, and real estate markets and stock markets around the world. And what we found is that bubbles are indeterminate in length. And there also indeterminate as to how high they can go. So if you don't know how long the bubbles go to last and how high it's going to rise, then you might be able to identify a bubble, and I don't think that's frankly that hard. And I think that's useful if you're just a long only investor, you can stay out of the bubble market. But the timing on the downside is really difficult. Yeah, and I think what we've been the last decade, we had people were talking
Odd Lots
Fresh update on "jim grant" discussed on Odd Lots
"And Bloomberg Radio .com. Bloomberg. The world is listening. The world is listening. The market will go. Right now, it feels like a wild ride. One thing's for certain, there's a way through it. experience And the and guidance of a Merrill advisor can help you get there. Because where there's a bull, there's a way. Find an advisor at ML .com slash bullish. Merrill a Bank of America company. What would you like the power to do? Investing involves risk. Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Ben Arndt, Smith Incorporated, registered broker dealer, registered investment advisor, member IPC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Bank of America Corp. Meet Sam. Sam is 30 years old. Sam may not act the part, but he's a billionaire. But on December 12, 2022, everything changes for Sam and what he calls a screw up. The US government calls one of the largest investments in history. From Bloomberg and Wondery comes a new series, Spellcaster, the fall of Sam Bankman Freed. Follow Spellcaster, the fall of Sam Bankman Freed on Amazon at Pass. You're listening to Odd Lots on Bloomberg Radio. I'm Joe Weisenthal and I'm Tracey Holloway. And on today's show, we're discussing the -decade multi trends that happen in the world of interest rates. So for more on the topic, we're joined by the one and only Jim Grant, founder and editor of Grant Interest Rate Observer. I was a we are embarked on a long cycle of rising rates. And I say that, first of all, for reasons of pattern recognition, there's no theory behind it. But I observed that in 2020 and unimaginably 2021 some large number of debt securities were priced to yield less than
Bloomberg Radio New York
"jim grant" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Chancellor, he is a financial historian and journalist, an investment strategist, perhaps best known for his book devil takes the hindmost, a history of financial speculation, and let's start with this quote that I like from a 19th century trader, James Keane, all life is speculation, the spirit of speculation is born with men. Tell us about that. Well, I mean, the act of speculation is to look out into the future the word speculator is Latin and was a Roman military guard, whose job was to look out and see whether the speculate on danger the Goths were coming out of the hill. And in particular, when you get into financial markets, the capitalist world, you are always trying to anticipate what's going on. In that sense, even people who describe themselves as investors are also necessarily speculators, but when we talk about speculation, we often talk about sort of unfounded or irrational or dangerous gambling type tendencies. So that leads me to the question, what is the actual difference between speculation and investing clearly they're both a gamble on the future? Is it about the amount of risk taken and the psychology of the person involved? Or is it something a little more quantitative? You've read shreds where are all the customers yachts. And do you remember there, he says, the difference between speculation and investment is that speculation is an attempt, normally unsuccessful, to turn a little amount of money into a lot, whereas in investment is an attempt normally successful to make sure a lot of money doesn't become a little. Fresh went, right? Is that right? Right. So embedded in that is the idea is that the speculator is going to be taking more risk. And not concerned with preservation of capital the way an investor might be, is that the speculator now called the book delete the high most. And that is really reflection of the what they call the greater full theory of investment is our buy a shibu inu coin. And sell it to you, Barry. When there are by because I think Barry is the bigger sucker than I am. And that he'll take it off me from a bigger price. That's a sort of Ponzi scheme or pyramid. Chain letter dynamic to a speculative bubble. And the other aspect of the speculator is the often gets lured into envisioning how the world will be and gets drawn into these new technologies, and the speculator, the trouble is that they look into the future, they imagine the future is actually much closer than it turns out to be, and so you could say that their operating with sort of hyperbolically discounting the future just say they have two lower discount rates. So they're drawing everything forward, and even with the Internet, which, as we know, established and changed their one's life within short period of time, even then, juniors and stopped the NASDAQ, coming down by more than 75%, a lot of these dot com businesses, flaming out. That's really quite fascinating. So I mentioned earlier, the book comes out in June 99, pretty auspicious time in. But it raises the question with the publication of your new book, how often does history repeat itself are all of these bubbles and manias and collapses pretty much the same playbook that just substitute Internet for railroads, substitute houses for telegrams do, all these things just follow the same sort of cycle, just forward in history. Well, Jim grant has a comment that as he says, we're always stepping on the same rake, and I have a friend of mine financial strategist, Liz and Edinburgh, called Russell Napier, runs. Oh, I know the name. He wrote a book on he wrote a book called the anatomy of the bear. The bear, that's really excellent book. He has a financial library in Edinburgh called the library of mistakes. And the idea is that you can learn everything you need to know in finance and for an investment career, by actually working out the mistakes people have made. Although I should add, you know, certainly doesn't help you on the short side. Betting against Specter bubbles, when I was at GMO we, colleague and I ran a sort of quantitative analysis of respective bubbles, and we crunch, released my assistant, did, 10,000 years of data from various commodity markets and real estate markets and stock markets around the world. And what we found is that bubbles are indeterminate in length. And there also indeterminate as to how high they can go. So if you don't know how long the bubbles go to last and how high it's going to rise, then you might be able to identify a bubble, and I don't think that's frankly that hard. And I think that's useful if you're just a long only investor, you can stay out of the bubble market. But the timing on the downside is really difficult. Yeah, and I think what we've been the last decade, we had people were talking about dot com 2.0 back in 2012, if you remember. And I actually, when my last project said GMA was to do a sort of to look at what was going on from economic sentiment perspective, looking at various different measures, blue bear ratio, amount of margin loans and system. I can't quite remember what they were. But anyway, I put them all together and it looked baked sentiment was very inflated and in 20 13, and actually I presented this to Jimmy clancy. And Jeremy got up out and said, I think the bull market has longer to run. And the other day he was sort of tweaking my name by saying reminding me that I had
Odd Lots
Fresh update on "jim grant" discussed on Odd Lots
"Interested in history as well we read have a lot written some and uh... wrote a book on uh... budget right yes i did yeah walter badgett is the kind of muse of contemporary central banking they invoke his is dictum about in a crisis they will say that contemporary central bank land freely uh... to everybody which is a very much paraphrase of badges lend at a higher eight against suitable banking collateral to solvent institutions uh... i would say i think you must be have been exaggerating when you said the thirty -five times revenue we were like i was like that cannot be right can be thirty x revenue but no fiscal year in twenty twenty four or the estimate for in video revenues forty billion it's a trillion dollar company and so yeah basically it looks like a typo i can't even look at this clear twenty twenty seven the currently on the bloomberg i found this twenty seven billion so we've been like you got to twenty seven you're still like a fifteen x twenty twenty seven or fourteen x twenty twenty seven bloomberg which can get anyone the phone article of scott mcneally and say what now let's do that let's do that soon that's a really good idea scott's really those earnings calls back in the day were really fun can i ask a question you know you mentioned dogma you mentioned the fed's rusty inflation fighting tools which on you know maybe understandably because for the previous decade or even longer maybe the impulse reflation and are we missing on the downside et cetera what did that period teach you as a historian of financial markets a student and someone who's like what did the period of like two thousand through nine 2020 in which we had large deficits we had this exploding size of the fed's balance sheet and yet sort of ability to generate inflation like what was your sort of like looking back on that decade what is it well it was very humbling for me what i took away from it is that the inevitable is always certain but not always well i look back at some of my work there and i was rather impatient for the inevitable difficulties and crises attending upon this credit creation jag thought i thought certainly it was going to happen like tuesday or so but so it's like the elapsed time between the first signs of house prices going way above trend on the one hand and the onset of the housing related credit difficulties of two thousand seven eight and i that period of six years was approximately twenty years in journalistic time if you were a little bit too insistent yeah just on this point let me ask a sort of devil's advocate question because i had trajectory a similar sort of i wouldn't compare myself to you obviously but you know post two two thousand eight i wrote a lot about excesses in the corporate bond market and it seemed very clear to me eventually this would blow up it didn't really and you know we could argue that maybe the time is coming for some of those excesses to to get flushed out of the market but it does feel like the solution to a lot of financialization is more financialization or at least it has been why can't that continue forever and like what is the tipping point at which solutions to financial problems is no longer viable. A tipping point was six years ago. I know. It's very specific. My impatient clock it was a long time ago but it did not tip. So why can't on it go forever. These excesses do crop up. They are met with additional manipulation stimulus intervention and still we go on. Who said there is a deal of ruin in a country because it was Adam Smith and there is a great deal so to speak in finance and manipulated finance. One of the singularities of the present time is the American position in international finance. Countries emits the reserve currency which means that we consume much more than we produce. If we finance the difference with dollar bills only we can lawfully print at a most reasonable price of like nothing and we remit the dollars to our creditors mainly in Asia say and those dollars don't leave the country because they come back in the shape of treasuries and mortgages purchased with portfolio interests of our creditors. So that is kind of a new thing in the long historicals. It's not so new in terms of years but in terms of phenomena. It's a reserve currency country being a chronic big debtor that's kind of a different thing. Reserve currency country living on the kindness of strangers so to speak that's it's not exactly writ. The more one learns the less dogmatic one becomes about timing certainly. Well that actually leads to the exact next question which is you know obviously currently today in 2023 there's yet another round of oh is the dollar gonna lose some its global status but we've been hearing that forever right like we you know we heard that certainly after the great financial crisis pre -grade financial crisis it was a lot of talk about the euro and and we've talked about in the show and like you know who is the model that flashed euros on like you know this is not a new thing so when you think about like okay like timing is really tough with this stuff like does it feel new does this moment feel different than past times when people had dollar status anxiety well some of the rhetoric's the same I guess by definition the excesses are greater the US international financial position which is a piece piece of data that comes out every year by this time ever shows a deepening deficit between what we own of other countries securities and businesses versus what they own our of securities and businesses and other security and public security so that the deficits deepen but still what's you know so what's the competition Turkey is mad at us and wants a different currency Iran ditto China and Russia the same but I don't see those as strong competitors for an alternative currency I see gold as a perennial option unfortunately too few people share my enthusiasm perhaps bloomer could help along those lines as well just on this note I mean we were talking Nvidia when you see markets react like that like what do you happening think is there what is the thought process of an investor who says I'm going to buy Nvidia when it's up forty percent in three weeks well I've a couple of things first of all again under the heading of you never know which I have come to embrace as a sound journalistic and life principle there's a possibility this time it is the invention of fire part two so one holds a mind share for that I think more likely is that this is part of the muscle memory of the generation 0 % interest rates and all you can eat credit the great all you can eat credit buffet table was open for business for 10 years interest rates fell from 1981 until a couple of weeks ago and it's called 40 years that's a lot of muscle memory central banks have intervened predictably until fairly recently when markets shuttered but what happened in 2019 of the repo market this obscure recondite thing caught a head cold in September and the Fed assumes QE didn't call it QE it's not QE yeah it was QE so naturally people assume that the upside is the side to be on it takes a true contrarian most bloody -minded contrary in this to to butt one's head against that but it's a living so why do people do it because a because cyclical memories are short and cycles are recurrent and B because it has worked coming up next we delve deeper into the future path of interest rates with Jim Grant that is up next on all thoughts right here on Bloomberg radio also make sure to subscribe to the lots podcast on Apple Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts and this is Bloomberg mr. mr. favorite Bloomberg radio show Bloomberg Businessweek Masters in Business Bloomberg intelligence and more are also available as podcast listen today on Apple Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcast this is Caroline Hyde and I'm ed Ludlow join us for Bloomberg technology a daily podcast focusing exclusively on technology innovation and the future of business we bring you the latest headlines from text -topped companies and conversations
Bloomberg Radio New York
"jim grant" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"He is a financial historian and journalist, an investment strategist perhaps best known for his book, devil takes the hindmost, the history of financial speculation, and let's start with this quote that I like from a 19th century trader, James Keane, all life is speculation, the spirit of speculation is born with men. Tell us about that. Well, I mean, the act of speculation is to look out into the future the word speculator is Latin and was a Roman military guard, whose job was to look out and see whether the speculate on danger the Goths were coming out of the hill. And in particular, when you get into financial markets, the capitalist world, you are always trying to anticipate what's going on. In that sense, even people who describe themselves as investors are also necessarily speculators, but when we talk about speculation, we often talk about sort of unfounded or irrational or dangerous gambling type tendencies. So that leads me to the question, what is the actual difference between speculation and investing clearly they're both a gamble on the future? Is it about the amount of risk taken and the psychology of the person involved? Or is it something a little more quantitative? You've read shreds where are all the customers yachts. And do you remember there, he says, the difference between speculation and investment is that speculation is an attempt, normally unsuccessful, to turn a little amount of money into a lot, whereas in investment is an attempt normally successful to make sure a lot of money doesn't become a little. Fresh wet, right? Is that right? Right. So embedded in that is the idea is that the speculator is going to be taking more risk. And not concerned with preservation of capital the way an investor might be, is that the speculator called the book delete the home most. And that is really reflection of the what they call the greater full theory of investment is our buy a shibu inu coin. Or an NFT, and sell it to you, Barry. When there are by because I think Barry is a bigger sucker than I am. And that he'll take it off me from a bigger price. That's a sort of Ponzi scheme or pyramid. Chain letter dynamic to a speculative bubble. And the other aspect of the speculator is the often gets lured into envisioning how the world will be and gets drawn into these new technologies, and the speculator, the trouble is that they look into the future, they imagine the future is actually much closer than it turns out to be, and so you could say that their operating with sort of hyperbolically discounting the future just say they have two lower discount rates. So they're drawing everything forward, and even with the Internet, which, as we know, established and changed their one's life within short period of time, even then, juniors and stopped the NASDAQ, coming down by more than 75%, a lot of these dot com businesses, flaming out. That's really quite fascinating. So I mentioned earlier, the book comes out in June 99, pretty auspicious timing. But it raises the question with the publication of your new book, how often does history repeat itself are all of these bubbles and manias and collapses pretty much the same playbook that just substitute Internet for railroads, substitute houses for telegrams do, all these things just follow the same sort of cycle, just forward in history. Well, Jim grant has a comment that, as he says, we're always stepping on the same rake. And I have a friend of mine financial strategist, Liz and Edinburgh, called Russell Napier, runs. Oh, I know the name. He wrote a book on he wrote a book called the anatomy of the bear. The bear, and that's really excellent book. He has a financial library in Edinburgh called the library of mistakes. And the idea is that you can learn everything you need to know and finance for an investment career, by actually working out the mistakes people have made. Although I should add, you know, certainly doesn't help you on the short side. Betting against Specter bubbles, when I was at GMO we, colleague and I ran a sort of quantitative analysis of a respective bubbles, and we crunch, released my assistant, did, 10,000 years of data, of various commodity markets, and real estate markets and stock markets around the world. And what we found is that bubbles are indeterminate in length, and there also indeterminate as to how high they can go. So if you don't know how long the bubbles are going to last and how high it's going to rise, then you might be able to identify a bubble, and I don't think that's frankly that hard. And I think that's useful if you're just a long only investor, you can stay out of the bubble market. But the timing on the downside is really difficult. Yeah, and I think what we've been the last decade, we had
Odd Lots
Fresh update on "jim grant" discussed on Odd Lots
"Go to smokey bear dot com to learn more about wildfire brought prevention to you by the u .s. forest service your state forester and the ad council this is the odd lots podcast on bloomberg radio i'm joe weisenthal and i'm tracy alloway and today we are looking at the end of a 40 -year bull market in bonds and what comes next we are speaking with jim grant founder and editor of grants interest rate observer i have a slightly personal question but i've always wondered this do you consider yourself more of a financial journalist analyst journalist and how does that influence i hired evan she's a great fan yeah he's great he's very good but how does that inform your your own work evan well i i started uh... not quite a one man that was never exactly one man band this is our 40th year but for many a year there was no evan there was often someone to lend a hand yeah there's a lot of blood i have gravitated to journalism i think more than the uh... really deep diving financial analysis i'm
Bloomberg Radio New York
"jim grant" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Chancellor. He is a financial historian and journalist and investment strategist, perhaps best known for his book devil takes the hindmost, a history of financial speculation, and let's start with this quote that I like from a 19th century trader, James Keane, all life is speculation, the spirit of speculation is born with men. Tell us about that Well, I mean, the act of speculation is to look out into the future the word speculator is Latin and was a Roman military guard, whose job was to look out and see whether the speculate on danger of the Goths were Kanye the hill. And in particular, when you get into financial markets, the capitalist world, you're always trying to anticipate what's going on. In that sense, even people who describe themselves as investors are also necessarily speculators. But when we talk about speculation, we often talk about sort of unfounded or irrational or dangerous gambling type tendencies. So that leads me to the question, what is the actual difference between speculation and investing clearly they're both a gamble on the future? Is it about the amount of risk-taking and the psychology of the person involved? Or is it something a little more quantitative? You've read schweitz, where are all the customers yachts. And do you remember there, he says, the difference between speculation and investment is that speculation is an attempt, normally unsuccessful, to turn a little amount of money into a lot, whereas in investment is an attempt normally successful to make sure a lot of money doesn't become a little. Right? Is that right? Right. So embedded in that is the idea is that the speculator is going to be taking more risk. And not concerned with preservation of capital the way an investor might be, is that the speculator called the book delete the high most. And that is really reflection of what they call the greater full theory of investment is our buy a shibu inu coin. And sell it to you, Barry. When there are by because I think Barry is a bigger sucker than I am. And that he'll take it off me from a bigger price. That's the sort of Ponzi scheme or pyramid. The chain letter dynamic to a speculative bubble. And the other aspect of the speculator is the often gets lured into envisioning how the world will be and gets drawn into these new technologies, and the speculator, the trouble is that they look into the future, they imagine the future is actually much closer than it turns out to be, and so you could say that their operating with sort of hyperbolically discounting the future or just say they have too low discount rates. So they're drawing everything forward, and even with the insect, which, as we know, established and changed it once life within short period of time, even then, juniors and stopped the NASDAQ, coming down by more than 75%. A lot of these dotcom businesses, flaming out. That's really quite fascinating. So I mentioned earlier, the book comes out in June 99, pretty auspicious timing. But it raises the question with the publication of your new book, how often does history repeat itself are all of these bubbles and manias and collapses pretty much the same playbook that just substitute Internet for railroads, substitute houses for telegrams, do all these things just follow the same sort of cycle, just forward in history. Well, Jim grant has a comment that as he says, we're always stepping on the same rake, and I have a friend of mine financial strategies lives in Edinburgh, called Russell Napier, runs. Oh, I know the name. He wrote a book on he wrote a book called the anatomy of the bear. The bear, that's really excellent book. He has a financial library in Edinburgh called the library of mistakes. And the idea is that you can learn everything you need to know and finance for an investment career, by actually working out the mistakes people have made. Although I should add, you know, certainly doesn't help you on the short side. Betting against Specter bubbles, when I was at GMO we, colleague and I ran a sort of quantitative analysis of respective bubbles, and we crunch, released my assistant, did, 10,000 years of data, of various commodity markets, and real estate markets and stock markets around the world. And what we found is that bubbles are indeterminate in length. And there also indeterminate as to how high they can go. So if you don't know how long the bubbles are going to last and how high it's going to rise, then you might be able to identify a bubble, and I don't think that's frankly that hard. And I think that's useful if you're just a long only investor, you can stay out of the bubble market. But the timing on the downside is really difficult. Yeah, and I think what we've been the last decade, we had people were talking about
Odd Lots
Fresh "Jim Grant" from Odd Lots
"Hike even more and pushes the economy into recession but it does feel like not only is there a lot of doubt but we're sort of heading into possible polar opposite directions well the thing that I keep coming back to a striking is if you told someone you know at the beginning of you know January 2022 you know when rates were zero that by spring 2023 we'd be at five and a quarter on the fed funds rate everyone's like oh you know the market would have crashed we'd be in recession etc and yet here we are with 10 million more than 10 million job openings and something that we've talked a lot about is like you know the entire 2010 was sluggish growth and everyone's like oh this is the pickup this is when inflation is going to come back and it doesn't and so far this decade it feels like okay this is finally when roll inflation is going to roll over this is when the recession is going to happen etc and we these expectations get keep kicked forward absolutely and I'm glad you mentioned interest rates just then and I mean the implication kind is of we've had years of people warning about what's going to happen when interest rates rise is it going to lead to a explosion in interest rate costs and things like that and you know we have seen some bankruptcies, but we're still sort of at this inflection point it feels like so I'm very pleased to say that we have the guest perfect for this episode we are going to be speaking with the man the myth the legend Jim Grant the founder and editor of Grant's Interest Rate Observer and a longtime commenter of financial markets I've been a fan of his work for many years so I'm so glad we can finally have him on the show. Jim thank you for coming on. lovely It is to be here and yes interest rates are a thing again I began to doubt the efficacy of my business model. People are observing people want interest rates observed. It is a good time for observation. Well maybe that's a good starting place but how would you characterize the current period in markets versus you know the trajectory of history you've been through and written about many interest rate cycles at this point? Well firstly I would call it good copy. This is what we like it doesn't matter up or down just give us some good time. Yeah we don't want peace and quiet. Well there are so many singular features and dogmatism has been I think I hope has been finished from the conversation and it's hard to dogmatize after 2021 and 20 etc. What is new and different is for example interest rates have gone from nothing to five plus on the short end of the yield curve and wouldn't you suppose that the home builders would have taken a big but instead home builders are right behind the video as the stocks and what you would think produce that they computer chips rather than two by fours but the home builders made new highs recently and that you why know because rates have kind of put interest rate handcuffs on people who are in possession of one of these sweet mortgages beginning with numbers two or three or four and think I most of the homeowners now with have loans have something less than five so people aren't moving and there's no supply no I exaggerate slightly but there's little supply and the home builders are hot footing it into that gap and they are coining money with huge margins and great perplexity around so you're speaking our language on multiple levels you mentioned semiconductors with nvidia two by fours we've talked lumber we've talked home building so what does that say then about our efforts to fight inflation you know we think of housing as ultimate rate sensitive sector and yet here we have home builders close to all -time highs despite the surge what does that say about I don't know perhaps the feds toolkit in fighting this kind of inflation well the fed only about two weeks ago was propagating it all the central banks of the world for years and years were bemoaning the fact they could not hit their two percent arbitrary mind you the arbitrary a two percent inflation target and the fed is recently as the jackson whole speech about 2020 that remote jackson whole conference chairman pal said you know we are going to search for a flexible inflation target benefits to low we will we will overshoot and thereby bring the average over the cycles up to more than two percent now that was it seems to me that was kicking sand in the face in the fed they've got these algebraic models my goodness how formidable they look on blackboard but they don't actually function very well so far as the future is concerned and the fed was in fact dogmatic through 2021 into 2022 buying mortgages recently i think is march 2022 so you asked about their inflation fighting tools uh -uh they're rusty you may you say well just on that note i mean walk us through why haven't the interest rate increases fed into the real economy more like why are you not seeing house prices go down why are you not seeing the much anticipated wave of bankruptcies that people were warning about for you many many years after the 2008 financial crisis well the house prices have in fact gone down is phrasing existing house prices that is the ones that are not imaginary so existing house prices are down new house prices are down from their peaks you know eight ten percent memory serves but the point is well taken Tracy that you know the phrase I think that something will break right and I was of the view am of the view that try as J pal might emulate Paul Volcker mr. Powell is not working with Paul Volcker's economy is much more dead therefore much more fragility you know people are head over heels over private credit they contend that this is a not quite Nvidia quality breakthrough in history of finance but it's up there and but you that know credit is a manifestation of the imperative to build leverage whether it's on the federal level or the corporate level not quite so much recent years on the individual level so there's a lot of leverage and I would say Tracy that with respect to the paradox of nothing breaking much yet just be patient it's coming where do you see vulnerabilities you mentioned fragilities private equity is one I think private credit will be shown to be rather oversold as a breakthrough I don't think it's any such thing actually how do people think about why do people think that there's special about private credit I think the story goes that the lenders of private credit are more flexible they have commitments by their limited partners to supply funds they are not constrained by banking regulations they are kind of a new breed so the story goes but you know they they are lending to an important extent to software companies which famously lack gap of profitability they are lending to the same very people that the public credit markets are lending to but they're doing it at a somewhat cheaper rate they're not doing it on a rated basis so is not getting the ratings business it did I don't know the whole private credit business sounds to me as if it were the same wine in slightly more presentable bottles just on this topic there's a line that you wrote many years ago now and it kind of lives for free in my head and it's slightly random but it's basically an invariant of I used to think about that quite a lot in the context of Valiant of course you know they borrowed a lot from markets cheaply they bought a lot of companies they used interesting accounting techniques such as ad backs to boost their valuation so could that they keep borrowing and I wonder how much that type of financialization in your opinion is reflected across the market and across the economy not just a valiant specific type thing well I would say that that is rather endemic I guess we ought to define it what we what I mean by it Tracy is the finance for the sake of finance not for the sake of making better a product but finance for the sake of making money through structure through fees that's the naturalization and you see it again in private equity there's a there's this thing called ad backs and backs are a form of sly manipulation of cost structure so you do a deal and buy a company and you say we will lever it meaning we will encumber it with debt to the extent of six and a half times EBITDA this kind of non -gap measure of earnings and and the reason it's 6 .5 and not 9 .5 is because we project savings through the great managerial improvements private that equity invariably introduces to its synergies synergies everywhere to its portfolio don't you know that S &P does an annual ad back study that's that's the age in which we live there is an ad back study from that you can look wait for every year and it shows that the most of these promised things Tracy don't don't be shocked it don't materialize but the fees surrounding them are paid so that that's an example one micro example of financialization said I think it's all over the place up next on odd lots it is more with Jim Grant find out what he is thinking about the current state of the
Grant’s Current Yield Podcast
"jim grant" Discussed on Grant’s Current Yield Podcast
"Is current yield grants interest rate observer of the air. I am Jim grant, and with me, as always, is the great deputy editor of France, Evan Lorenz, and Henry French as per usual at the control panel and joining us today is none other than Douglas seafood. The chief executive officer of virtue financial. And Doug will be getting to you in just one moment, but Evan, now, you know, Elon Musk is, I think, has never won entrepreneur of the month here at grant's interest rate observers. Is that correct? Long-standing for at least 5 or 6 years. Yeah, I think he's. I thought that his comment on working from home is pretty fabulous. You could quote or semi quote. You can pretend to work someplace else. No, it's okay. But you sent me something more than it leads me to think that there might be a traffic jam of people returning to their Tesla offices. Yes, Elon Musk apparently submitted a memo to his employees saying that about 10% of them might get the pink slope. Did he say. What did he name names or just let the impressions settle in, let it marinate in the staff? I would just let it marinate myself just to quicken the pace of work shorten the time the water cooler. A little more starch in the organization. I had a guess probably the later. Yeah. So as I said CEO of virtue financial is with us today, Doug seafood. I'm going to parenthetically pause. Am I pronouncing seafood correctly or my bungling? You were doing a great job. So far. My grandmother used to say chief food, but we Americanized it. Okay. Doug is by training and long-standing as a lawyer. He was a partner at Paul Weiss risken Wharton and garrison Eminem lawyer of many deals and great professional recognition and and a proud Columbia University Lion phi beta capital law school and I think by extension Doug, a fan of the Ivy League champion Columbia Lion baseball team. I'm a huge fan. Yeah. That's our best team sport. Yeah. Well done, Jim. But Evan, you organize this fabulous podcast. And I'm going to give you the honor of to continue the baseball metaphor of lobbing in the first lollipop. We'll get to the hard stuff later. I've got a slider or two, but Evan has a question for you. So Evan commence fire. Yeah, so this popped up in the news last week. And I used executive at an industry event said that one of their major clients almost defaulted on an exchange in March of 2020, and that stood out to me because a lot of the post financial crisis regulation over the last decade has been trying to move more and more traded products into central counterparties like ice. But if there was almost a major default in March in 2020, that kind of speaks to more.
Grant’s Current Yield Podcast
"jim grant" Discussed on Grant’s Current Yield Podcast
"Grand building up, <Speech_Male> make great <Speech_Male> condos, but anyway, <Speech_Male> a handful of people <Speech_Male> can guide <Speech_Male> the activities <Speech_Male> of 300 <Speech_Male> plus million people <Speech_Male> doing literally billions <Speech_Male> of buy cell <Speech_Male> decisions each day <Speech_Male> is so preposterous <Speech_Male> and yet we accept it as <Speech_Male> gospel. Oh, <Speech_Male> yes, they must slow <Speech_Male> the economy down or speed <Speech_Male> the economy <SpeakerChange> up. <Speech_Music_Male> We're not machines. <Speech_Music_Male> It's not just that <Speech_Music_Male> we're not machines, but it's <Speech_Male> such a <Speech_Male> one 80 from what they said <Speech_Male> last year. Last year <Speech_Male> they specifically said, <Speech_Male> we're going to run the <Speech_Male> economy hot in order <Speech_Male> to juice unemployment. <Speech_Male> This year we're going to <Speech_Male> cool down the economy <Speech_Male> so it doesn't hot up. <Speech_Male> Last year, one of the regional <Speech_Male> fed presidents Mary <Speech_Male> Daly said, and I'm <Speech_Male> going to quote this from memory. <Speech_Male> We are not <Speech_Male> thinking about <Speech_Male> talking about <Speech_Male> raising rates. <Speech_Male> They were actually doing QE <Speech_Male> through March 15th <Speech_Male> of this year when <Speech_Male> the CPI actually <Speech_Male> rose 8.6% <Speech_Male> year over year. <Speech_Male> Now the regional fed <Speech_Male> presidents and fed governors <Speech_Male> are tripping over themselves <Speech_Male> to be the most <Speech_Male> hawkish out there <Speech_Male> who can throw out <Speech_Male> the most basis points, <Speech_Male> hikes in <Speech_Male> a meeting. But this <Speech_Male> is such a <Speech_Male> giant shift <SpeakerChange> in just <Speech_Male> about 6 months. <Speech_Male> If they are, they are <Speech_Male> blackbirds <Speech_Music_Male> in a power line. <Speech_Male> <Speech_Male> All right, so <Speech_Male> you've been listening, <Speech_Male> ladies and gentlemen, Steve <Speech_Male> Forbes is running for <Speech_Male> president. Yeah, <Speech_Male> next time <Speech_Male> like out Trump <Speech_Male> and <Speech_Male> so thank you for being here, Steven. <Speech_Male> Congratulations. <Speech_Male> Well, thank you very much. <Speech_Male> Timing of this <Speech_Male> weekend on the <Speech_Male> volume. <Speech_Male> Bravo bravo. <Speech_Male> And keep up the good <Speech_Male> work. All right, because <Speech_Male> and by the way, <Speech_Male> in closing, you know, <Speech_Male> they talk about cancel <Speech_Male> culture. There's <Speech_Male> cancel culture <Speech_Male> in <SpeakerChange> economics. <Speech_Male> And that is <Speech_Male> we <Speech_Male> know it. Remember <Speech_Male> you and <Speech_Male> I were <Speech_Male> on the upper <Speech_Male> west side that <Speech_Male> was the wrong place. We <Speech_Male> were debating <Speech_Male> the gold standard where <Speech_Male> we afford against <Speech_Male> yes, we were for it, <Speech_Male> and we were up against the company's <Speech_Male> two <Speech_Male> guys. <SpeakerChange> They didn't know <Speech_Male> anything. What was <Speech_Male> the former fed governor? <Speech_Male> Well, that tells you <Speech_Male> what you need to know. And so yeah, <Speech_Male> you have canceled you can <Speech_Male> not discuss <Speech_Male> GOLD, <Speech_Male> ask a Judy <Speech_Male> Shelton, <Speech_Male> among policymakers <Speech_Male> and economists. We <Speech_Male> hope to change that, at <Speech_Male> <Advertisement> least start to get a <Speech_Male> discussion, and that's not <Speech_Male> going to come from our <Speech_Male> brilliance. Going to <Speech_Male> come from the pressure <Speech_Male> of events, <Speech_Music_Male> practical Americans <Speech_Male> are practical people <Speech_Male> that are going to see, this is <Speech_Male> not working very <Speech_Male> well. Let's <Speech_Male> look at what went <Speech_Male> wrong. All right. <Speech_Male> So ladies and gentlemen, thank <Speech_Male> you for listening. And <Speech_Male> you know for whom to <Speech_Male> vote next time you're <Speech_Male> in a <Speech_Male> I don't care whether his <Speech_Male> name is in the ballot, over <Speech_Male> Steve Forbes. <Speech_Male> Harrison good <Speech_Male> to see you. Evan ditto, <Speech_Male> ladies and gentlemen, <Speech_Male> especially good <Speech_Male> to see you, if <Speech_Male> only in my mind, talk <Speech_Male> soon. <SpeakerChange> Jim grant, <Speech_Male> on behalf of <Speech_Music_Male> the current yield.
Grant’s Current Yield Podcast
"jim grant" Discussed on Grant’s Current Yield Podcast
"Trust, is there anything you'd like to say that we haven't asked? Do you want to get some lunch? It's kind of a big question. But we did sort of go out of her way because again, since 1994, I've been getting this question about sell rates and rates go up. And that hasn't worked. Now, we also haven't had a reversal of the 40 year bull market in bonds. And if this is impact, the reversal is that. Valuations are going to be impact. And they're going to be impacted of all investment opportunities. And I'd really encourage them. And I said a lot of it today. I encourage you to look at our piece and why not all real estate is an inflation hedge which implies that certain real estate is one exercise we just did for our investors quarter. We put it out earlier this week with we said, if you look at a warehouse company today and I talked to you about why I felt warehouse makes sense. And this one in particular there's 40% growth in its income if you just roll all the rents to market where they were at the end of last year. So it looks like a super low cap rate or in place rent of about 3%. But if you roll the whole portfolio to market, it's more like a four 6 cap rate. And we said, okay, well, is that reasonable in the current financing environment and or the financing environment we might have 12 months from now if the fed does the 95 billion in the 300 basis points increase. And we don't know exactly where financing will be. I think the financing market for real estate is already largely priced that in. And so we said, well, where do transactions happen pre-pandemic when financing costs for real estate was about where they are today and would that 4.6 cap rate be expensive or cheap or fair? And I would say going back and looking we happen to have been involved with a couple of large warehouse transactions. It's in the zone of fair. So bargain basin, not super elevated. Plus it has the inflation head characteristic. Until we think that's okay. Again, we did the same exercise for net lease and for office. And they are problematic. That would have been the last point to make. Well, this has been terrific. Jonathan, thank you so much for being with us. Evan, I will see you around the campus. Henry, thank you. And ladies and gentlemen, thank you for listening until next time this is Jim grant on behalf of grant's interest rate.
Grant’s Current Yield Podcast
"jim grant" Discussed on Grant’s Current Yield Podcast
"Hey, this is the current yield grants interest rate observer of the air. I am Jim grant, and with me, as Louise is the great deputy editor of Grand Central Lorenz. I had with us today, as our guest, is Mary child, who is the author of the bond king, the story is bill gross. Hey, Evan, that went around the office of the day raving about the excellence of the news story in the Financial Times. I call it like the exemplar to find new story..
Grant’s Current Yield Podcast
"jim grant" Discussed on Grant’s Current Yield Podcast
"Well, this is current yield grants interest rate observer of the air and I am Jim grant and with me as usual is the great deputy editor of grants and Lorenz, our friend Henry is at the control panel and joining us today is John hamburger, who was the moving force behind a superlative publication called restaurant finance monitor in his other irons in the fire of financial publications football concentrate on his client work in restaurant finance monitor. But first, Kevin, I have been overwhelmed by a sense of nostalgia this morning. You know, the Ukrainian business is I suppose it's not everyone is struck most by nostalgic feelings, but I was taken back to the Cuban missile crisis of 1962. I was around certainly reading the papers and absorbed the propaganda from both sides that Russia felt free to and saw its missiles in Cuba and we felt free to say if you do that, it's all over. And they're similarities. Of course, with today's Ukrainian business. But most struck me in the nostalgic vein this morning was a headline. It was a quote city to lay out plans for generating better returns. That's from Reuters. And I was taken back a hundred years. Now, I just starting in finance a hundred years ago. But I remember as if it were yesterday, Citi banks problem with a concentrated loan book in Cuba was underwriting Cuban sugar industry and wouldn't you know it slip of the judgment, the credit committee allowed city to be exposed to 80% of its capital to Cuban sugar loans. And then as now sugar was a somewhat cyclical commodity and it did recover, it's then prices, but not until 1945. And in the meantime, Citibank struggled and then CEO Charles Mitchell allowed conceited to the pakora committee investigating such things. Yeah, the bank might have been sunk had then they not dealt with this at the time. So every generation or so or perhaps every 15 years or so there is some headlines such as city to lay out plans for generating better returns. And it gives me a sense of solidity. It gives me a reminds me of this type of locality of everything in finance, but also it grounds me that there are certain permanent truths in finance. And one of them is that Citibank is going to do better the next cycle. It reminds me of a little bit of a classic joke in emerging markets, which is Brazil is the country of the future and always will be. That's true as well. Hey, John hamburger, welcome. Thanks, Jim. Hi, Emma. Yeah. I have in my hand. The February 15th issue of finance restaurant finance monitor. And I commend this as the quintessential example of the micro illuminating the macro. I mean, between the pages, the coverage of restaurant finance, you can learn all you need to know and perhaps then some about the microeconomics of restaurant finance. But there are also innumerable micro insights that spill over into the macro. You get a sense of what we are pleased to call the economy, which is the concepts that is subject to brave distortion and elastic definition. One of the things that struck me, I know you have other own impressions, but John hamburger, when you write about Starbucks and it's labor difficulties now. It attempts to some on the part of some Starbucks employees to unionize, you're right as follows. So Starbucks workers probably the best train ones in the industry are demanding higher paying, even twine with the union so much for a stock savings accounts,.
Grant’s Current Yield Podcast
"jim grant" Discussed on Grant’s Current Yield Podcast
"They have the ones that created those constraints and how do you put a lid on inflation while preventing cost of capital from rising at the same time. So you're not going to be able to pursue that plan, I believe. And so I think that's why we're short treasuries all the way to two and a half and 3% after that, we're probably out of that trade. Because I think the fed is not going to allow any further movement in the long end from there. And so I think we're probably very close to peak tightening narrative in the markets. And I think gold and silver are starting to respond to that. And so it's difficult. It's almost equally as destructive to substantially tighten or lose in monetary conditions here. So irrespective of this kind of macro puzzle and then you have copper oil, agriculture commodities that couldn't care less if the Federal Reserve raised rates to one or 2%. That's not how you fight inflation. Look at Brazil, it's taking interest rates up to double digits. Look in the 70s, what we've done. And so I think the fed is truly trapped. And so this is the whole reason why I think it's the most bullish case for owning tangible assets today. Well, this is really been intriguing. And I'm so glad you came to the telephone topic. The ladies and gentlemen, you have been listening to octavio Costa. His friends call him toddy. Well, thank you, tafi Costa. Thank you, Eva Lorenz. And on behalf of grant's interest rate observer, I am Jim grant and looking forward to talking with you again soon on current yield grants interest rate observer of the air..
Grant’s Current Yield Podcast
"jim grant" Discussed on Grant’s Current Yield Podcast
"And they dramatically increase liquidity within the crypto universe, which increases prices. But at the same time, it may be doing so with artificial liquidity. Yes. So I agree with that take Evan and we actually have a one could apply a cynical lens to what's going on. And we wrote a piece for very early on that nobody has read and it was a piece involving what we believe is sort of at the heart of what might be occurring. And it was a piece that made some speculations about if we wanted to create a giant Fiat confiscation machine. How would we go about doing it? The piece was titled a crypto field of dreams. Build it and they will come sort of reference and it was published all the way back on May 30th, literally in the first month of Dunbar, we had barely hatched out of the egg when we wrote this piece. When I look at the amount of leverage that the exchanges who happen to be the big exchanges overseas that happen to have close relationships and cross ownership and cross investment with tether and bitterness and so on. When they induce people to take a significant amount of leverage, we believe all they're really doing is, well, let's walk the audience through an experiment that Jim grant deposits 100 U.S. dollars into an account and is credited with tether a hundred tethers. And then Jim grant is then allowed to speculate in Bitcoin with ten to one leverage. It doesn't take much of a move to wipe out Jim grant's equity quote unquote in this context. And so you can essentially confiscate Jim grant's Fiat by convincing him he just made a bad trade. And there are very few very large players that seem to have unlimited access to tethers. And these exchanges happen to know your position. And you see these large volatility gyrations in cryptocurrencies all the time where literally called liquidations, but your original $100 and the point of the piece dollars X McEnany is we have a follow the Fiat mindset, you deposit 100 U.S. dollars. You were credited in tether. You were induced to speculate with ten X leverage. The position moved 10% against you. You think you made a bad trade? When in reality, it's probably a tilted house. And you're a $100 is gone and is split amongst the thiefs. And that's sort of the way we look at it. Now, again, we'll get lots of pushback on that. But I haven't seen too much evidence against that hypothesis that in science, a hypothesis only fails when it's properly nullified. I'd actually like to draw on your work in the dollars ex Machina piece because again, I encourage listeners to actually read it because you try to trace how Fiat flows into the crypto universe and flows out to it and kind of what the meanings are. But one thing we've noticed in the last three or four months is that there's been an extraordinarily high degree of correlation between crypto and other risk assets. And in fact, in many instances, it appears that cryptos are leading sell offs like a wind on the market opens up and SP goes down. Crypto party sold off hours or even a day beforehand. Do you have a sense of how digital currencies become so entwined with a broader financial markets and what is a mechanism through which they seem to be tied to, I guess, worries about the fed, worries about inflation and kind of the sell off and unprofitable tech? So like anything, what makes a particular investment bank say systemic from a risk perspective..
Grant’s Current Yield Podcast
"jim grant" Discussed on Grant’s Current Yield Podcast
"Well, this is current yield grant's interest rate observer of the air and I am Jim grant and with me as always is the great deputy editor of grants Evan Lorenz. Good afternoon. Do you have it? Ladies and gentlemen, that was just a test to see whether Evans there. You are here in mostly awake. Excellent. Okay. Well, Evan, this is a fine kettle of fish. I mean, all the world is talking about the fed tightening fed tightening for tightening. And it's honestly the situation the fed continues to do so called quantitative easing and to impose an interest rate of about 0% of the economy that has generating 14% nominal growth in GDP and 10% broad money growth, et cetera, et cetera. It does seem incongruous. And do you have any message for our masters at the fed Evan are you going to just let them do it? I don't think they've ever listened to me before so I don't expect them to listen to me now. But I do think it's remarkable that we've seen like a 10% sell off in the S&P 500. When as you noted, the fed still kept rates at zero and is still buying bonds. It's not like they've tightened yet. Yeah, well there's some I mean this jaw bone business goes back many decades people talk about the fed. The jawbone of an ass was one comment one heard in the day about unpopular fed chairman. But Evan, we are not just the two of us alone here with Henry or engineer. There are soon to be three of us. And I'm going to introduce our guest his name pure and simple is doom burg, and doom burg is, I think the one of the leading green chickens. That's the icon. Sub stack enterprise, which presents a field of essays for your delectation. Very pretty regularly. I'm impressed by the productivity as a doom burg enterprise and the topics are collected, the writing is a silicon and the thinking is often kind of unauthorized. So I can't imagine a better trio of accolades for a grand guest. So welcome to the Lorentz. We have truly climbed the entire mountain of content creation and the financial world by finally arriving on your podcast, but a wonderful achievement. It's a real honor to be here and very much looking forward to what I know will be a thrilling discussion. Well, this is also rather economical. Because you have saved me the trouble of doing an advertisement for grants, interest rates. If I mentioned grants, interest rates are over yet. The premier intellectual thought provoking biweekly publication on Wall Street thank you. And back at you, you know, I've asked you on this program ever and I asked you on this program to talk about crypto. I wonder if we are narrowing a little bit unnecessarily. The balance of the conversation because if you look on the production of doing burg on substantive it's just a wonderful medley of contemporary themes and also a pop cultural reference. It goes from the Peterman catalog to Seinfeld to I know there's some haydn and Mozart on there as well as nothing purely contemporary about it. So let me with all that said and mumbled gilberg. Let me begin by asking you what you make of a contention that comes out of fidelity investment that we live in a Bitcoin world Bitcoin is singular..
Grant’s Current Yield Podcast
"jim grant" Discussed on Grant’s Current Yield Podcast
"Welcome to current yield. This is Jim grant on behalf of grant's interest rate observer of the air with me as always the great deputy as of grant's evidence. And with us today as well, dean Kramer, who is the chief cook and bottle washer, the progenitor of the CEO. And for all I know, the king of macro risk advisers. Dean helps his clients anticipate risk imaginatively do something about it, hedges, conquer it, and sometimes beat it to a pulp. And we are going to talk today about the many facets of risk and what one might do to protect oneself. And indeed, profit from it, though Evan welcome to you and Evan is speaking to us from the borough of Brooklyn if it ever actually lost track where you are these days. It is indeed Brooklyn, just around the corner from the Barclays center. No way. And dean, just to get us geographically situated, where are you? Not here. I can see that. I am touching base with you and thanks for having me on from rye New York today. All right, so this podcast, ladies and gentlemen, coming to you from two 33 Broadway, which is the world headquarters of Korea. It's interest rate observer. But we are in the modern way. We are not so 2019, as to insist that we all be in person. We are a part yet together. So being I, you raise a very interesting point and one of your comments, I just take it and look at it, which is you quote John Burbank. A guy who was invest well and also thinks interesting thoughts about investing as he is making money. And John Burbank is want to say, what if, quote, what if price is a liar, what does that particular phrase mean to you these days when so many prices seem to be so extreme? Spend my career really studying market prices. And certainly believe that there's a lot of information content in asset prices and especially if you're disciplined as derivatives, then you get to study all kinds of prices across the volatility surface of time and different strike prices and absolute prices and relative prices. So I think there's so much information in market prices. And yet, as John Burbank said, price is a liar. And by that, my take on what he was saying is that value market prices and the information content, but not take them too seriously because at a given point in time, price is simply what satisfies the supply demand equation. It's the price at which folks are able to transact. And because our markets are imperfect and they go through spasms of both almost impossibly high volatility and sometimes impossibly low volatility, prices simply the metric that brought people to the table..
Stansberry Investor Hour
"jim grant" Discussed on Stansberry Investor Hour
"The the actual resource that remains scarce when everything else grows abundant namely the passage of time. And yet and yet george. It sounds like you're telling me you know the created scarcity from bitcoin being the problem that that scarcity it's relative because you you refer to the infinitude before you you talked about scarcity finito together. Yeah that's that's the paradox of money right it's gotta be it's scares but it's also alleged infinitely into the future and time as what it has to partake of those conflicting properties of time. It's both scarce inexorable an open an unlimited horizon into the future right so we learn we real wealth by learning that changes that grows. Bitcoin doesn't grow. So it's got this crazy volatility but gold gross. Yeah gold girls gross and so we got a gets not impossible to create digital goal. But we haven't quite done it yet. Yeah there are different folks working on that in in different ways but We're we're not quite there. So when does when does the You know jim grant is called The us dollar the coca cola of currencies you know when people Issue coke for her digital gold. When when does coke finally go out of style. Well coq is is really. It's it's delusional today. I mean here's what to think of this. The jerry we talk about Phya currencies somehow bid valid money. But when gold was the world was on the gold standard until about nineteen seventy-one. Most of the time we've experienced the greatest Economic growth in the history of the world. The it accommodated the industrial revolution. At empowering the british empire where the sun never sat and today to reproduce the functions of gold we have seven almost southern trillion dollars of of currency trading. Every day. the laurels leading industry is not food or clothing or a housing or shelter medical care. It's currency trading and for all less seven trillion dollars a day some seventy times the value of all goods and services and the globe traded every day..
WBZ NewsRadio 1030
"jim grant" Discussed on WBZ NewsRadio 1030
"Eyeglasses. We're going to go back up north for 95 South found jams nearly two miles now to that roll over at the Chandler Road overpass in and over. 4 95 North found a little slow route 1 10 and up to past 2 13 and a thorn 95 million still on and off the brakes about 10 Miles sportsman. It's up to York, Maine. 1 28 northbound, sluggish route 38 moving to 28 reading 1 28 Self Bong slows before and after North, absolute ones Looking good down south of Town Expressway north, Um, Jim's granted out to South Hampton Street that from an earlier crash site is clear. Expressway Colbun Heavy out there, Neil to South Bay. More delays through the split. Who three South You have the 18 to Derby Street and sluggish down past 2 28 in Rockland. From there, you're about to back two miles to get into the Sagamore Bridge. Three north Beyond slows before and after Derby Street, 95 North is still heavy. The top in Canton, 24. Southbound, hitting the brakes from the top to the horse Bridge and Randolph, lower end of 93 1 28. Now about 25 Minute ride between the pike in Branch Tree down the case. Still pretty busy. 25 East bomb two miles to the born Bridge. Six westbound. No issues. Getting off Cape Route six eastbound. You can hit long delays from sag more from the sag more out to chase wrote in sandwich and then you'll hit a more, I guess. Heavy at the lane drop in south dentist. And then you, Jim, about three miles down through wealth. Lee don't over paper glasses get two pairs and a free example just 69 95. The exam alone is worth 50 bucks. That's not just a better deal with America's best book Your exam online today, with certain states exams provided by independent opthamologist See store for details. David's Droney WBC's traffic on threes might have a rain cloud or too early in the evening. Perhaps the storm cloud if you're down on the Cape or islands, otherwise, things are going to start clearing tonight we'll see a good blow to sunshine.
All The Kings Men
"jim grant" Discussed on All The Kings Men
"I think it will build on a nice little rivalry of kings versus vegas For a decade aecom leg. Remember those early frozen fury games when we first started playing colorado and you had like won- sacic in deadmarsh alison. I mean those were. That's what built what. Some fans still laugh about the rivalry of kings vs colorado. But it was pretty nasty then and the preseason game and vegas was awesome because pre-seasons you know if it's if it's time to write as a whole different level. I was in vegas a few weeks ago. And i walking through the jim grant actually saw frozen fury poster from the last game with co petar. They still have it up from the last one played just cool so obviously vegas is tied in with frozen fury now. Why do you cheese was wasn't important to keep the frozen fear may bring back the frozen fury. Salt lake shootout had a bit of alliteration to it which was good. Not quite as good of alliteration is frozen fury from your end you know. Why was it important to kind of rebrand this series as something. That's resonated obviously very passionately with a lot of kings fans. Yeah there's a read all the social media comments around around everybody's opinion on this Injury we had a great brand. I recognize that we recognize the frozen fury in. Vegas is different than it is in salt lake. But the point of frozen fury is that it was attrition of kings fans and hockey come together as a preseason. The cell end the preseason celebrate the season starting and independent whether it's in vegas orrin utah. It's about the spirit in phantom of of kings fans coming together and that's what we really want to build their whether they're from salt lake city or they're from los angeles or they're up from mammoth where we have a ton of gangs fans you know. Short drive away all those things coming together to celebrate the start of the year. And maybe getting in some some Healthy arguments with some vegas fans and that'd be fine. I mean we will never recreate the the skinny hallway of the gauntlet. Mgm grand garden heading to a hockey arena. Which wasn't really a hockey arena like that can't be recreated we understand that but let's start a new tradition in the group in salt lake is really focus on making a fun experience for the next number of years and i think you know this year. I think we've got a we've got a weeknight game. But when we get to saturday night game it'll be more fun but we got back to back thursday. It's thursday friday Preseason games salt lake and and vegas not make it a trip. I'm glad you mentioned the gauntlet because you know to your point. Obviously we won't have the gauntlet in salt lake city. That's and that's fine. But but when frozen fury was started. Nobody said okay. Well we'll have the gauntlet and we'll have you know the beer house where all the fans go beforehand. And then we'll have the blackjack table you know what i mean..
AP News Radio
Trump rallies supporters in Wis. as Democrats debate in Iowa
"President Donald Trump talks about his border wall trade deals a rod democratic challengers and impeachment during a political rally in Milwaukee in a political rally in Milwaukee president trump defends is okay king of an air strike that killed an Iranian general slammed his democratic challengers as weak on national defense and called impeachment a desperate attempt by the Democrats our opponents say we're not gonna win let's impeach president trump he also brought out an issue from twenty sixteen Mexico's paying for the wall wall you know that you'll see that during the speech protesters tried to be heard and it was a beautiful sight and these guys were better than Tom Cruise and Jim grants are determined to win back Wisconsin Pennsylvania and Michigan three key states trump token is twenty sixteen upset victory I'm Tim acquire
Bucket Strategy Investing
MGM Resorts selling MGM Grand, Mandalay Bay for about $2.5B
"Rough the MGM grand Mandalay bay have been sold according to MGM resorts international to two and a half billion dollar deal is the second major venture between MGM resorts and Blackstone real estate income trust in the past three months operation of the resorts will remain in the hands of MGM resorts international and continue as normal yeah I'm sure that's the question a lot of people had because obviously with the switch over of the hard rock hotel now being a virgin property right it's going to be you know they're gonna be a total makeover that nothing's going to change those or send this is Jim Jim grant and handle it they are just and Jim grant MGM grand Mandalay bay for two point five billion that's it yes I'm shocked at the numbers that low I am shocked well they're not bring new properties I just I mean but you got I'm not up to speed on the exact what these values would be is visiting a week I'm sure it's up to I'm sure those dander across those crazy but those are two hotels right in the center of the strip map from one of most profitable streets in America over the course of a year it's nice I feel like you just considering it but that that that that pricing to me is very low two point five billion down it's very worrisome to me that that price was that low I feel I could be more like ten to twelve maybe maybe Gerald can agree with I would think that if the properties were rolling in that much money MGM resorts would be unloading them all exactly that's that's why I'm very