20 Burst results for "Jim Bullard"
Bloomberg Radio New York - Recording Feed
Monitor Show 15:00 09-21-2023 15:00
"The United States Border Patrol has exciting and rewarding career opportunities with the nation's largest law enforcement organization. Border Patrol agents enjoy great pay, outstanding federal benefits, and up to $20 ,000 in recruitment incentives. If you are looking for a way to serve something greater than yourself, consider the U .S. Border Patrol. Learn more online at cbp .gov slash careers slash USBP. That's cbp .gov slash careers slash USBP. Bloomberg Business Week with Carole Masur and Tim Stenebeck on Bloomberg Radio. Look out for that music. That was kind of fun. Joe and Kaylee having fun. Kaylee like bopping it. Yeah, that was cool. It's a great show. You've got to listen to that show. Party on, man. We're going to party on for the next three hours, in fact. Oh, if you're not like along this market, you can party. Hey, where there's a long there might be a short. Okay. Got to remember, right? Welcome, everybody. Bloomberg Business Week on this Thursday, September 21st, 2023. Live in our Bloomberg Interactive Brokers Studio on YouTube and, of course, on Bloomberg Originals. Twenty -four hours, Tim, since that last Fed decision. S &P at its lowest level since June in three months. We're going to talk a lot about the trade today. And yes, equities, but it's really because of what's going on in terms of the inflation picture and really the interest rate picture. Yeah, with that in mind, a lot of focus on the Fed and the rate picture today, including what former St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard says the Fed may still need to do. Is that does that have something to do with today's moves, Carol? I don't know. I just I woke up to that news.
Bloomberg Radio New York - Recording Feed
Monitor Show 14:00 09-20-2023 14:00
"With Bloomberg, you get the story behind the story, the story behind the global birth rate, behind your EV battery's environmental impact, behind sand, yeah, sand, you get context, and context changes everything. Go to Bloomberg .com to get context. Trend cruising speed. We'll get the forecast from the Federal Reserve in about 20 seconds time alongside that Fed decision. Going into it, the price action looks like this on the S &P 500, positive by 0 .2%. On the NASDAQ, almost totally unchanged. To the bond market, yields on a two -year, shaping up as follows, near, in and around 5 % on a two -year in America, 5 .05%. Mike McKee has the decision. This is the very definition of a unanimous hawkish pause. The Fed leaves rates today in the range of five and a quarter to five and a half percent while saying growth is solid and inflation elevated, so hire for longer. Policymakers leave another rate move on the table for this year and take two reductions off the table for the next two years. The statement once again discusses, quote, the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate. And the dot plot shows that 12 members of the Open Market Committee still believes they will raise rates by another 25 basis points this year. The high dot at six and a quarter percent comes out of the dot plot with St. Louis Fed's Jim Bullard's retirement. For 2024, the committee now sees a median effective Fed funds rate of 5 .1%, up 50 basis points from their June projection. And for 2025, 3 .9%, up from 3 .4 % in June. The long -run neutral rate is unchanged at two and a half percent, although the central tendency range moves up to 3 .3 % from 2 .8, and the dots show seven members think that the neutral is higher than two and a half.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"jim bullard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Think Jim Bullard said what he thought when he was the President at the Senator Lewis Fed and he says what he thinks now. The great thing about Bullard right now is I think they did the shot from the football stadium at Purdue and he's got the whole Purdue Boilermaker thing behind him. Like he's raw raw, but I'm going to give them at least until Purdue beats Michigan this year. I'll give them at least until then. I don't know when the game is enormous. I've promised people that I'm going to watch a college football game this year, so we'll make that happen. want to shake I it on the price action for you. We are about 13 minutes or so away from the opening value. Equity markets shaping up as follows. Equity futures on the S &P 500, positive here by 0 .3%. On the week, we are just about positive, but only just after yesterday's losses. In the bond market, we've backed away from those cycle highs on a 10 -year yield of about 436. We're back down to about 424 .53 going into that speech with Chairman Pouton in the next hour. It is, and this is a wonderful moment now as we go to that speech with the central bankers gathered here on, yes, U .S. economics, but of course international economics. And they will listen more to Barry Eichengreen of Berkeley than anyone here. He owns the high ground from golden fetters, his classic book on gold, until what we see with globalizing capital and now his intense focus on debt and the debt mess we're in. Dr. Eichengreen, thank you so much for joining us. How bad is the debt mess we're in? Well, I think it's a big change from the pre -COVID days. Governments are going to be constrained if and when we a have global recession, if and when a bad thing happens. They have a lot less room to run because of the increase in public debts worldwide. As usual, you've been upfront on this and the The phrase that I hear from you is, and you say it with respect to the institutional pressures in our political leaders, the modern medicine that we have. What is the more stronger medicine we need to take to get control of our debt and our ratios? I think we're going to have to learn to live with these high levels of public debt that the advice policymakers are getting from the Bank for international settlements and the IMF about bringing down debt ratios. That's unrealistic. We're not going to be able to grow out of these higher debt ratios. We're not going to have a more real interest rate going forward than we've had in the past. We're not going to be able to run primary budget surpluses for long periods of time. So I think we're going to have to tiptoe, likely through this problem and manage these heavy debts. I your know words. Manage. Other people might say, this ends in disaster. Barry, what's the argument against that? For countries like the United States, there is a big demand out there from foreign central banks and the international private sector for US Treasury bonds. think So I the US government is an exception to the general rule in that it has room to run. Other governments are going to have to reform fiscal institutions, worry about fiscal transparency, do all the things that the IMF and others have been recommending for years. Does it basically that longer term yields in the US are where they need to be, that basically the term premium is going to be significantly higher, that essentially what you see is what you get. Well, I think the term premium can come down a bit, but not back down to pre -COVID think everybody we're understands that we're in a new world with higher interest rates. The question is how much higher and I wouldn't be a pessimist about that. How much has the debt that the US has incurred in particular driven a lot of the inflation that we see? How much can we really basically write the book and say helicopter money actually does cause inflation? Well, I think the fiscal stimulus that we in the United States did in 2021 was a contributing factor to the inflation and there will be debate about that today because there were other contributing factors as well. The supply shocks, a variety of other things. Take your study of debt, your view on the inflation adjusted yield, which is maybe what the adults, the pros look at, and bring it over to the Eikengreen application of policy. monetary And there's a whole R -star debate in that. Are we going to move away from a 2 % regime and how do we search out an anchored level that is higher? Well I think the Fed has to bring inflation down to 2 % before it really opens that conversation. We saw in this recent episode the importance of credibility, and credibility and 2 % are synonymous for the time being. The only time you talk about changing the regime is when you have everything under control. Let's go down the hall at Berkeley to Brad DeLong's office. You and I are going to walk in with Professor DeLong and I'm going to say to both of you with your academics and his more political view, what's the price of bringing inflation down to 2 %? What's the cost of that to Americans? So far the cost has been minimal compared to the doom and gloom scenarios we heard about unemployment going up to 5 or 6 %. Professor DeLong, you have been the arch optimist against doom and gloom. How do you respond to doom the and gloom that we hear daily from Lisa Abramowitz or that we hear out in all of economics? How do you respond to that American gloom that you fought against for 50 years? Well, look at what the Atlanta Fed, now tracker, is saying the US economy is on track. There's no sign inflation of on the horizon yet in this kind of assembly of economists there has to be one Lisa, this is like the GOP today, isn't it? Your name was referenced. I just wonder, I wonder, you know, at one point is it unsustainable, this kind of enthusiasm, this kind of growth, right? I mean at some point you're not going not to get down to three per two percent. I'm already changing to three percent, two percent for quite a while, even by the Fed's own admission. Twenty, twenty, twenty five. Exactly. After twenty, twenty five. Doesn't that reduce their credibility to some degree? they have They to have a credible strategy for getting to two percent. So this is the classic give them a target two percent or give them a date, never give them both. Two percent. Can we think about where it came from? Is this really about some people in New Zealand in the 1980s just coming up with a number? Is that what we're all doing here? Two percent? What is it about two percent? That's exactly what we're all doing here. But history has consequences. Can I get on? I mean, absolutely. Absolutely dead on. The first time I think I met you or was like within the year I met you, some guy almost took a swing at you on a stage at Singapore at a G7 meeting. He was so angry with you. How do you respond to OMG the dollar's dead Renminbi ascendant? Do you throw chalk at people at Berkeley when it comes up? How do you respond? No, at Berkeley I don't hear it. That kind of interchange, you get more invitations. Okay, you get some more speaking fees off that. Do you suggest the dollar is at risk given all these stresses? I think the dollar is not at risk yet, so we in the United States can do things to damage its credibility, but nothing that happens at the BRICS summit this weekend will much affect dollar. the Where were you? I would have chosen to come here anyway. The word yet is so loaded. Bally, thank you. This was wonderful. Truly, thank you very much sir. We are about five minutes out from the opening ballot in New York City. This is what we're going to do. So at 10 .05 Eastern Time, you'll have an address from Chairman Powell. take We'll that live and in full on Bloomberg TV and on Bloomberg Radio. Bloomberg's Mike McKee is going to react to that and also Mohamed Al Arian, just the perfect guest to spend a little bit of time with Tom off the back of that address from Chairman Powell. Can I just say the team that put this together in McKee years ago. Are you emotional? I'm emotional. Are you on the edge of tears? We are not on the edge of tears. It's too cold. Lipsky. I can green with us. Gorgieva before. Dr. Arian and that
Bloomberg Radio New York
"jim bullard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"And it is 7 28 a.m. in Hong Kong and Bonnie quin. And I'm Brian Curtis trading is underway in the Sydney market, but for the most part, we're still looking at equity futures here. And they are telling a story of possible losses in the Asia Pacific, but it should be less so than what we saw on Wall Street. And people here are still quite focused on the China reopening, although that's expected to be a bumpy ride as well. We'll get you more on the markets coming up in about ten minutes to show or so, but now we look at some of the top stories. Well, two of the fed's most closely followed hawks are seeing more rate hikes to successfully restore price stability. One, Cleveland fed chief Loretta mester, the other St. Louis then president Jim bullard. And muster didn't disclose how big of a rate increase she favored, but she stressed rates need to keep moving higher. We're not at 5%. Yet, we're not above 5%, which I think is going to be needed given where my projections are for the economy. So I just think we need to keep going and we'll discuss at the meeting how much to do with any one particular meeting. Meantime, St. Louis fed president Jim bullard said fed policy as, quote, not quite there on being restrictive enough. Bullard also said he would be open to hiking rates by 50 basis points at the fed's next meeting, and of course that's in two weeks. Bank of America has started telling executives to pause hiring. We hear the bank will hold off on bringing in new workers until at least midyear or until the economy show signs of a turnaround. Vital rules will still be filled, including some in trading. It all comes as Bank of America tries to keep a lid on high expenses. Bloomberg Sally bakewell tells us many of the biggest banks are wrestling with this very same problem. A huge, huge thing we saw coming out of bank earnings which we had this weekend toward the end of last week was expenses. And banks were really punished for not getting a handle on expenses. You saw with Goldman Sachs. It shares were down because it posted operating expenses that were some 11% higher. And that trend was seen across Wall Street for those that also guided to higher expenses or posted higher expenses. On a more positive note, Bank of America has shown no signs of moving toward job cuts, despite a pullback across the finance industry. It also contributed more to compensation rewarding employees for their contributions in a year that did bring in massive profits for the bank. Taiwan signed a licensing agreement for a chip manufacturing it with Lithuania's teleka group. The contract between Taiwan's industrial technology research institute and teleka is worth about $15 million. Bloomberg is learning the research institute will provide assistance in preparing detailed clans for engineering and training foretell tonic as employees. The deal is the latest example of intensifying ties between Taiwan and Lithuania. In 2021, Taiwan opened a tradeoff in Lithuania's capital, teltonika estimates the core operation with Taiwan will enable it to start semiconductor production by 2027. All right, the time is 31 minutes past the hour it's time for global news
Bloomberg Radio New York
"jim bullard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Volume in U.S. equity trading today lower or lighter than usual. It is a holiday shortened week stateside. We have Thanksgiving on Thursday. At the margins maybe a little bit of a distraction where the World Cup is concerned. I think it's fair to say, though, that it's really about the fed at this point, rate hikes not only the pace and magnitude, but the destination point we were talking a moment ago about the comments from Mary Daly today, the head of the San Francisco bed, a fed too much tightening, she said, could be unnecessarily painful for the economy. And then the head of the Cleveland fed Loretta mester was telling CNBC she has no problem with slowing the rate of increases at next month's meeting. Tomorrow we'll hear from Esther George who heads the Kansas City fed Jim bullard, the head of St. Louis. Wednesday will get fed minutes from the last meeting. Not a lot of movement in the bond market today a ten year treasury at three 82 a two year at four 55, even though the bond market did not perform in a great way today. We did have a rally in the dollar. The biggest increase we've seen in about two months with the Bloomberg dollar spot index higher by about 7 tenths of 1%. Some of this may have been tied to a bit of haven investing on concern about what China is going through as it relates to potentially a lot more in the way of curves from COVID. Right now, the dollar firm against the majors, the yen here, weak at one 42 15, the offshore Chinese currency, a little week as well at 7 spot one 5 58 against the greenback. Right now, in Sydney, we've got the ASX 200 ahead by four tenths of 1%. In terms of equity market price action stateside, the Dow was down just a tenth of 1%, the S&P weaker by about four tenths of 1% today. Consumer discretionary really taking it on the chin, the energy complex also moving lower today. And the NASDAQ composite down about 1% as well. We'll take another look at markets in 15 minutes. All right, well, absolutely. 25 minutes to the top of the hour Well, Malaysian politics in the deal making the horse trading at fair feverish pitch. We've got the king's deadline being pushed back. Let's get over to head back to who's got global
Bloomberg Radio New York
"jim bullard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Trade your opinion on yes or no questions in key, CME futures markets. You can learn more at event trader dot interactive brokers dot com. Let's take a closer look at today's price section with niraj Seth he is head of Asia credit at BlackRock joining from our studios in Singapore. Niraj, thanks for being with us as some hawkish commentary from Jim bullard, but he has been a hawk for some time now. He's looking at a terminal rate, maybe 5 and a quarter percent. How does that square with your forecast? So I would say overall that's not very far from what we would be expecting here. I think the key point here is as we can imagine the inflation issue is still very much there. We've seen clearly some slowdown and potentially a peak in the U.S. inflation, but from a perspective it's still far from the target. So the comments are very much to just keep market expectations in line with the focus on inflation and what it will take to get back to the target. Let's talk a little bit about the internal plumbing that we have going on or it's taking place right now in global bond markets. One of the things that bullard indicated was that we could see further financial stress ahead, collateralized loan obligations, maybe one market that were cracks or emerging already. Are you seeing signs of stress building? You certainly are seeing signs of stress. You have seen obviously tightening of financial conditions and the beginning of the year. So over the last week or so, you feel some evening without the key to market value and the volatility coming down. But in general, you are certainly seeing the stress in pockets where you have higher leverage dollar liabilities if you take the emerging markets complex again, it's probably not in the larger market, but in the smaller frontier you're seeing the pressure given obviously the tightness and liquidity of dollar right now that's obviously going to continue. So you do see that pocket of stress actually emerging and I think it will continue as we go into 2023. It's very interesting. You make that point. We have a story on the Bloomberg terminal indicating that Chinese regulators had asked banks on the mainland to report their ability to meet short term obligations. This seems to be a reaction to a flood of investor withdrawals for some fixed income products. Niraj when we continue the conversation, maybe we can talk about the credit situation in China. I'd like to get your view and whether or not there are challenges here, particularly in the shorter term government bond market in China, we've already seen some hefty declines so far this year. We'll have more coming up with a niraj Seth from BlackRock, joining us here on daybreak, Asia
Bloomberg Radio New York
"jim bullard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Learn more Back to you Doug, what do we got? Well, we had a little bit of weakness in the equity market today, rich. I think we struggled in the face of some more hawkish fed speak we heard from the head of the St. Louis fed, Jim bullard. We're going to take a closer look at that momentarily. We also heard from Neil kashghari and he, as the president of the Minneapolis fed, is not really seeing much evidence of cooling in the economy, that suggests that, well, rates are going to be continuing to advance. Today's number on weekly jobless claims came in below forecast. That seems to underscore the strength of the American labor market. So when you look at the bond market today, not surprising that you're going to see yields move higher across the treasury curve at the long end we were up a little more than 7 basis points to three 76 at the shorter end of the curve the two year was up a little more than 9 basis points to four 45, and that move up in rates and turn strengthen the dollar. Even though the move in yields was sizable, the decline in equities I would characterize it as somewhat muted. We had the Dow giving back just about a tenth of 1%. And in the broader and secondary markets, the S&P NASDAQ comp each week or by about three tenths of 1%. We did have a rally in shares of Alibaba today picking up 7.8%, results for the second quarter were mixed. However, and perhaps more importantly, announced plans to upsize its stock buyback program by 15 billion today the NASDAQ golden dragon China index was up about 3.7%. I'll take another look at market action for you. Well, you will risk in about 15 minutes from now, right? Yep. Let's just take a look at what you're talking about here and talking a bit more detail about the Federal Reserve and certainly we got investors recalibrating bets on just how high the Central Bank may be willing to take interest rates. As you mentioned, Doug, we've got some news for fed president Jim bullard, saying policymakers should high grade at least between 5 and 5 and one quarter of 1%. Even under these generous assumptions, the policy rates still isn't at a zone that might be considered sufficiently restrictive. To get to this sufficiently restrictive level of policy we'll need to increase the policy rate further. Jim bullard that now his hawkish town was echoed by the Minneapolis fed president Neil kashkari saying that it's an open question how far the fed has to go with rates to bring demand back into balance. Now, fed officials in September had projected rates rising to around 4.6% next year. Those projections will be updated at the Federal Reserve's December 13th meeting. We go to Twitter next and we are hearing that mister Elon Musk is now softening his stance on working in the office, Musk earlier had said he was restricting the remote work, his policy basically very much against it. Now he's telling employees they can get approval if, here's the caveat, they're managers, take responsibility for ensuring those employees are making an excellent contribution. We are told this change came after a few workers opted to accept Musk's hardcore terms of employment. He had issued a 5 p.m. Eastern Time deadline for employees to formally state whether they would keep working at Twitter, Musk may now be hoping a softer approach for remote work can convince those workers to stay rich. Okay, well, it is what just come to 5 minutes past the top of the hour
Bloomberg Radio New York
"jim bullard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"To 7 tenths of a percent the NASDAQ down. Roughly about 8 tenths and 9 tenths of a percent. And I just want to point out the Dow Jones Industrial Average down about three tenths of a percent and we'd be remiss and not at least acknowledging the anniversary here, a very grim anniversary, 35 years ago, of course, black Monday, a day where we were still quoting Dow point today where we lost 500 Dow points back when that really meant something, a 20 something percent decline that day, which I think still stands as the worst percentage decline that we've seen in markets across the board. And one reason why I wanted to bring that up guys is really this idea when you listen to Jim bullard and this idea of sort of fed credibility. A lot of sort of the competence that we have, at least as market participants really sort of links back to the fed's response to that 87 crisis. The idea that they were willing to step in really cajole these banks into continuing lending and avert what a lot of people thought was going to be an economic crisis. In the end, it was just a market crisis, and it was relatively short lived. But of course, today that's exactly what we're trying to unwind. Yeah, I guess this is why I like your remain. It's exactly how I started off my broadcast. I like you a lot, but I started off with its 35 years since black Monday, so it's like pretty remarkable. And Jim puller did say that the fed shouldn't react to declines in the stock market because we are constantly tailored parsing the connection between fed policy or how much the fed is closely watching what goes on in financial markets. Your golden dragon index, Carol, drops to the lowest that we haven't seen since July of 2013. We do that for you a 7% decline here. Coming back to sort of the U.S. equities here. Take a look at where we are with sort of the other sub levels. This is no surprise. Energy is up 3%. Boy Carol, is this the narrative of the day and certainly the year auto components as well are up one half, 1% as we wait Tesla to come in just a few moments along with those semiconductors. Everything else is you can see really big red on the screen as you think about the banks, real estate, some of the consumer durables, still under pressure, given some of those inflationary pressures that we're continuing to see. All right, I'm going to quickly go through some individual gainers, Netflix, you know the story, the beat on the subscribers, the outlook pretty positive. That stock up 13% in today's session really stand out and top in the S&P 500 NASDAQ 100. You've got UAL, the airlines continue to move ahead over the last week or so. UAL up about 5% again seeing profit well above Wall Street estimates in the final quarter of the year talking about that strong demand and another one that was earnings based intuitive surgical. It was up almost 9% in today's session. You know they make the da Vinci surgical system. They were saw third quarter revenue adjusted EPS beat. They also lifted their forecast for procedure growth for the year and several analysts raising their price target on that stock so that Tim saw some outperformance today. All right, let's look at underperformance a second biggest decliner in terms of points on the S&P 500 today, Abbott Laboratories, following a 6.36%, dropping the most in more than a year at one point after third quarter earnings showed lower demand for COVID testing and then also substantial declines when it came to its infant nutrition business. Remember, of course, the recalls earlier this year that led to a nationwide baby formula shortage. In generac holdings, the worst performing a percentage basis in the S&P 500 today down more than 25%, the shares cratered after the company cut its full year sales growth forecast range. The company also announcing preliminary third quarter sales that were lower than analysts had forecast. And look at this one olaplex shares down more than 56% today. Turns out people right now aren't buying as many higher end hair care products as many had thought. Olaplex shares crumbling today after the company slashed its forecast for the year. Sales record low. Since that IPO was about a year ago, September of 21. Meanwhile, I mean, we look at what's also been under pressure on the day and we go across the asset for a moment. Overall, you have seen the likes of the dollar higher, so yields have been rising. Dollar moving because of that really. And so overall we have a dollar rising, therefore, other FX pairs on the downside, particularly the pound after that inflation data came in stronger than expected hotter than expected over in the UK. Does that mean further concerns about a recession, the Euro is weakening by 8 tenths of a percent as their CPI print hit a 9.9% unit across the border commodities and actually natural gas once again for a fourth straight session coming down that little bit lower production easing, but we're also seeing though, of course, oil up three and a half percent so much for the jaw bone in coming at least and the torque coming from the administration of course Biden trying to talk about dipping into those special reserves, but not enough to quell some of those concerns about overall supply. Tesla earnings hitting the wire. And we are getting Tesla. We're just getting the bottom line numbers right now. Does look like overall a fairly big outperformance third quarter adjusted EPS of a dollar 5 estimates were for a dollar one. They are still seeing 50% average annual growth in deliveries. Of course, we got those vehicle deliveries about ten days ago for the third quarter. So again, we're getting the bottom line numbers right here. The adjusted EPS numbers of a dollar 5 estimates were for a dollar one. And again, we had gotten a lot of those production and delivery numbers as we await to continue to look through some of these PDFs as well for Tesla. Really pleased to say that we can bring in at ludlow. Right now, I know that you too, my PDF has been stuck in a spinning wheel, and yours too may be doing that as well. But what do you make of at least sort of the third quarter revenue numbers that we're getting here of about $24.4 billion and at least some improvement on the bottom line? Yeah, this has become the story for Tessa. They're beating on the top and bottom line despite difficult macro conditions, reiterating the guidance of average annual growth of 50% is very important. Why? Because in the first 9 months of this year, they were tracking it around 45% growth. So the street was looking to see if they could signal they'd make up that loss ground in the final quarter of this year. The final point that jumps out at me is this release on page two of 29 is that they talk again about the issues they face at the end of the quarter, the higher elevated logistics costs of moving vehicles from a to B and remember when it came to the delivery numbers for the third quarter, they missed because they said there were a number of vehicles in transit and the cost of moving those vehicles was becoming unpalatable high. So top of mind as we start to also go through this release and then hear from certainly more of the investment community on this. I mean, what's top of mind for you as we go through these numbers? Yeah
Bloomberg Radio New York
"jim bullard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"And that Bloomberg quick take. This is Bloomberg radio. It is Bloomberg daybreak Middle East our top stories this morning, China's president Xi opens the party Congress saying the economy is top priority, but gives no signs to investors abide any relief on COVID zero or the property sector. Speculation swirls about Liz truss's future as prime minister. UK financial markets get a fresh opportunity to pass judgment. When they open in the next few hours, the new Chancellor refuses to rule out more tax cut U turns. I'm not taking anything off the table. I want to keep as many of those tax cuts as I possibly can because our long-term health depends on being a low tax economy and I very strongly believe that. Jim bullard leads open the possibility that the fed could hike 75 basis points at each of its next two meetings, but says it's too early to make that call. And The White House national security adviser says President Biden's options for reevaluating U.S. sidey relations include changes to the approach to security assistance with the kingdom. But
Bloomberg Radio New York
"jim bullard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Out and at Bloomberg quick tape. This is a Bloomberg business flash. We have a downdraft in equity markets across the apac. We had some very heavy selling in the states on Friday after the inflation expectation survey from the University of Michigan spiked in early October. And now the conversation in markets is about a more aggressive fed over the weekend we heard from St. Louis fed president Jim bullard, leaving open the possibility of the fed raising interest rates by 75 basis points in November and then another 75 in December. That ignited or I should say we did have a rally in the U.S. dollar in the Friday session with the Bloomberg dollar spot index jumping about 7 tenths of 1% yields across the treasury curve were up in New York trading Friday, but they are drifting lower, not by much, one basis point or so in the case of the two and the ten with the two year treasury now at four 48 ten year at 4%. Japanese equities are down by about one and a half percent if you look at the nikkei, the dollar showing just a little bit of weakness the firm here around one 48 60, but in the Friday session in New York we had the yen touching a fresh 32 year lower just under one 49. The Cosby is down about 1.4% cacao. This is the South Korean Internet services provider, the company had a fire over the weekend at a data center. It disrupted a lot of the apps that the company offers, shares are down right now by more than 9%. In Sydney, ASX 200 off about 1.6%. We'll have another look at markets in 15 minutes
Bloomberg Radio New York
"jim bullard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"So the equity market is apparently trying to make a comeback here with the S&P 500 well off its worst level of the day and the NASDAQ composite now positive by a little more than a tenth of 1% earlier in the day market struggled with some hawkish commentary from a one noted fed hawk that being Jim bullard of the St. Louis fed. He said that interest rates now have just gotten restrictive and he said that they'll need to remain higher for some time to make sure that inflation is under control at the longer end of the US Treasury yield curve we have the ten year at 3.95% were up more than three basis points, but at the short end, the two year is actually down by a little more than three basis points to 4.30%. The dollar west well off its best level of the day, although the Bloomberg dollar spot index still positive with a gain of a tenth of 1%. The yen weaker and the Euro is weak as well as 95 95 U.S. cents of the 11 industry groups within the S&P 500 five negative are checked at 5 positive 6 negative on the positive side energy tracking the price of crude oil higher WTI right now, 78 78, Goldman Sachs saying today that the crude oil market right now is exceptionally tight, even though the global economy is weak and that may be enough to support higher oil prices at least in the longer term. We have the Brent contract right now at 86 40 with a gain of about 2.8%. Dow industrial average right now down two tenths of 1%, the S&P off just a tenth of 1% and the NASDAQ comp rising by three tenths of 1%. I'm Doug prisoner that's your Bloomberg business flush. All right, Doug
Bloomberg Radio New York
"jim bullard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"A check now the latest market action on Wall Street and what to expect in the Asian trading day. Here's Bloomberg's Doug prisoner. Hey Brian, we had a number of corporate earnings reports today and a few topped forecast names like PayPal and Moderna and as long as we're speaking of Moderna, the stock is or the company is also buying back stock shares finished up 16% today. We also had a lot of economic news to sort through the numbers were better than expected. The U.S. services sector unexpectedly strengthened in the month of July. We were at a three month high if you can believe that. Plus, the readings of non factory orders CAPEX spending and orders for durable goods all beat expectations. Now typically, when you get strong economic news, you would expect to see a move up in long-term interest rates. Well, that wasn't the case today. The yield on the U.S. ten year treasury actually fell by four basis points to around two 70, although at the shorter end, the yield did push a little higher we were up about two basis points on the two year to around 3.06%. You may remember last week fed chair Jay Powell signaled a possible slowdown in the pace of future rate increases and that boosted odds for maybe some rate cutting next year that seemed to be what the market was expecting, but today the head of the Minneapolis fed Neil kashkari said rate cuts in 2023 while they seem very unlikely. We'll take a closer look at the fed momentarily. We had the S&P 500 today rising by 1.6% of the 11 industry groups in the S&P only one negative energy, that story is coming up as well. The energy group today down 2.5%, the Dow was higher by 1.3% NASDAQ compromising 2.6%. I'll take another look at market action for you in about 15 minutes, Brian. Yeah, given that tech component, it's setting up as a big rally in Asia today, so it should be kind of interesting to follow. All right, well, fed officials as heard, as mentioned, fed officials are vowing to fight inflation with additional tightening. St. Louis fed president Jim bullard told CNBC a neutral rate is still some distance away. And bullard favors front loading big, great hikes. We've still got some ways to go here to get to restrictive monetary policy. I've argued that now with the hotter inflation numbers in the spring, we should get to 3.75 to 4%. This year, bullard said that big rate hikes could help boost the fed's credibility. At the same time, fed president Thomas barkin of Richmond and Neil kashkari of Minneapolis both said that the fed is far from done, and they said a recession could be the outcome. However, San Francisco's Mary Daly was more sanguine. She said the fed can counter inflation without creating mass unemployment and an economic downturn. Well, one of the mainstream Brian of inflation, of course, it was me going on with energy prices and OPEC plus issued one of the smallest production increases in its history and they put it down to weaker demand the Carter allowing just a 100,000 barrels a day to the market September for July and August, the group had pledged an additional 600,000 barrels a day. These slow rate comes despite pressure from The White House, Amos hochstein. Its White House is a senior adviser for global energy security, gave a positive outlook despite disappointing increase. The president wanted to see oil prices down, wanted to see gasoline prices at the pump down. That's what we're seeing. And I think what's very remarkable here is that we're seeing that happen while one of the largest oil producers in the world
Bloomberg Radio New York
"jim bullard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Hey coming up we're going to check in with the CEO of shoulder up technology acquisition corp We've talked with her over the last year or so about a spac brought to the market Lots to get to those She's got some thoughts when it comes to leadership in particular when it comes to women Yeah really looking forward to that conversation In the meantime let's get a check on what's going on in the markets as we get to under 90 minutes away from the close Doug Krishna What's it looking like Well it's looking a little risk off but I think the good news if you're long these markets is Tim we're off the session lows the Dow right now is only off about two tenths of 1% NASDAQ comp down just a tenth of 1% We have to begin with the eco data though There were a couple of data points here and I think the most troubling may be this ISM manufacturing survey Overall manufacturing activity top estimates but the survey also shows input cost arising faster than they can be passed along and we also heard today from the head of the St. Louis fed Jim bullard He is urging his fellow policymakers to raise rates aggressively so inflation comes down and he went on to say that longer term if you can think that far ahead or at least see down the road to that extent there may be the option of some reversal of these planned rate hikes But for the moment it's really about elevated yields across the curve a ten year treasury now at two 93 we're up by more than 8 basis points on the shorter end a two year at two 66 higher by more than 11 basis points A couple of stock stories very quickly where we're talking late yesterday about Salesforce raising its annual profit forecast those shares are up by more than 11% right now Also HP Inc the stock is higher by more than 4% after better than expected sales.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"jim bullard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Hi everybody Good morning if you're tuning in in the Asia Pacific good day if you're listening elsewhere and we welcome listeners coming in after being with the PGA Championship won by Justin Thomas with a playoff victory and it was not a first time winner but that's the way it looked with about 15 minutes to go Very good morning to you I'm Brian Curtis in Los Angeles And I'm Kathleen Hayes here at Bloomberg world headquarters in New York City We're going to take a look at how things are shaping up with the Asian trading day Bloomberg's drug prisoners back It does I love this headline from markets live S&P 500 NASDAQ futures set green glow on Monday There is a little bit of a green glow in Japan anyway Well there's green glow too for the E mini futures contract for the S&P 500 It's up about 9 tenths of 1% Remember on Friday here we finished well off the worst level of the day In fact the S&P bounced off of that down 20% level pretty much We cracked a little bit below that But a lot of folks were saying we were able to Dodge the bullet when it comes to being in a bear market So if you look at what's happening across the pack grim right now in Tokyo we've got the nikkei pushing higher by about 9 tenths of 1% a little bit of weakness in the yen not by much one 27 82 in the end is beginning to strengthen ever so slightly here in the Tokyo session material along with healthcare stocks leading the rise in Japan We had the Australian elections over the weekend labor taking power We've got a stronger Aussie dollar right now trading at about 70 60 U.S. cents And the Australian equity market trying to inch higher here It's a staggered open in Sydney and the ASX 200 right now better by about two tenths of 1% In Seoul the Cosby rising by about four tenths of 1% U.S. yields now moving up the entire curve shifted down or lower I should say in the New York session Friday right now a ten year or two 79 up a little more than a full basis point And the two year rising by more than two basis points now at two 60 we had the head of the St. Louis fed Jim bullard saying Friday He'd like to get fed funds to around three and a half percent by the end of the year We'll take another look at market action for you in 15 minutes Brian All right Doug thanks very much Well China says the U.S. strategy for the indo Pacific is doomed to fail Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi said that the approach would create divisions would insight confrontation and would destroy peace Wang's comments came while President Biden is meeting allies in Asia to increase engagement and counter China's rise Biden also plans to unveil the indo Pacific economic framework during the trip Now the effort is aimed at countering China's clout in the region and the packaging includes clean energy supply chain resilience infrastructure and taxation The U.S. hasn't listed the initial participants although it did say that more nations are expected to sign on in the months ahead And we just heard from the nikkei Asian review that Singapore will participate in the IPE F the vapor cited prime minister long in an exclusive interview Apple is trying to reduce its dependence on China It's a pretty big step We get more now from Bloomberg susannah Palmer Apple has told some of its contract manufacturers that it wants to boost production outside China That according to The Wall Street Journal which says apple is citing Beijing's strict anti COVID policy among other reasons the report says India and Vietnam already cites for a small portion of apple's global production are among the countries getting a closer look from Apple as alternatives to China Analysts say more than 90% of Apple products are made in China by outside contractors Susanna Palmer Bloomberg daybreak Asia All right four and a half minutes past the hour coming up Our guest Alethia Garcia herrero is chief Asia Pacific economist over at natixis and we'll join us live It's now time for global news.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"jim bullard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"The fed thinks neutral is Jim bullard thinks it's 2% not two and a half Yeah mister bowler has been pretty hawkish Let's say I think the idea Let's get a third fine so dramatically right now I think that's the program But as far as neutral it's flexible And remember the fed announced average inflation targeting a couple of years ago We all sort of forgot about it But never defined what average meant But in terms of neutral as a scope 2% that seems pretty iffy I suspect it's something higher than that And I guess I turned around a little bit to say more or less to leases come in a moment ago where does the fed declare victory What's a good result for the fed Is it two Is it two and a half two and a half I think it's probably fine So is that longer and neutral I don't know that it is but is it okay for this cycle Yes we think we're looking On the construction of the real yield Michael Schumacher we have a nominal rate with obviously a second derivative up up up some real convexity in the ten year yield You've got some guesstimate of inflation and you get a residual which is the inflation adjusted yield Which of those three numbers is the most interesting to you right now It's the real deal So it's the inflation adjusted yield time And the reason I say that is that's really economic third That's why if I'm investing for the long run that's what I expect to earn economic So for me looking at that and getting a negative number for the bulk of the treasury curve that Celsius policy is still the very accommodative and it's also the bond market frankly is not very attractive for most people So if you're simply putting money to work in an absolute return basis or individual investor to go file me into buying only if you're really risk averse But as far as the prospects going forward they're not all that real yields have to go higher It might be And that's why I think it's the most interesting In the meantime one reason why people have been saying that the fed can afford to raise rates as much as they're now predicting is because earnings have remained strong We see that corporate strength and we're getting a slew of earnings delta certainly It is a demonstration of that perhaps JPMorgan less so although that's debatable they're still doing just fine And then Bed Bath & Beyond comes out with disappointing results their shares absolutely tanking and Mike how much do bad results actually mean something significant for the Federal Reserve that's looking for some reduction in the momentum to an order to orchestrate something more like a soft landing and not over tighten and commit a policy error That's interesting though Lisa you hear a lot of talk about financial conditions need Titan what does it mean It means equity prices probably need to be what was brought to you to come down a bit because it means sector by sector no I don't think so but I suspect the firm would be pretty happy if stocks sort of held their own for a while Maybe drop a little bit not too much but that sort of backdrop where risk assets tread water maybe high yield bonds do the same Treasuries back up a bit You take a lot of the steam out of the system That's the kind of result the fed wants But of course the fed does want that to proceed fairly slowly cautiously So not to cause a ton of damage I think it's incredibly difficult and skeptical and you want to do it Let's hope that that gets it right Michael thank you so much Michael Schumacher with Wells Fargo today on the dynamics of the fixed income market And again the ten year yield from a 2.80.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"jim bullard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Gets vaccinated And then Bloomberg our market vision is 2020 So let's talk about the pain trade I am shocked by the moves that we're seeing in the rights market The inflation debate continues Bloomberg radio the Bloomberg business app and Bloomberg radio dot com Broadcasting 24 hours a day at Bloomberg dot com on the Bloomberg business app And at Bloomberg quick take this is Bloomberg radio This is Bloomberg daybreak Middle East Your top stories this morning fed officials that out in force again Weighing in on the path for rates Jim bullard says the current policy rate was 300 basis points too low As the head of NATO warns that the conflict in Ukraine could last for years the EU agrees to ban imports from Russia in its first move targeting Moscow's crucial energy revenue Two people are killed in 7 more injured in another shooting in Tel Aviv The fourth such attack on the Israeli city in just over two weeks And the billionaire entrepreneur he did feel caused Warren Buffett Jamie Dimon allowing members of a finance general tocracy opposed to a revolutionary youth movement that embraces Bitcoin We have the details Well it's just gone 8 a.m. across the Amara is very warm welcome to the show and menace.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"jim bullard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"The median path So if you do the math you know I think what we're going to probably need to move some of those meetings Master joined St. Louis fed president Jim bullard in calling for Quaker tightening Bullard tells Bloomberg faster is better when it comes to rate hikes What you have to do is move the policy rate up discreetly a fair amount not to be too disruptive but I think 50 basis point moves are definitely be in the mix And then get to a level that we can be neutral And then from there we can decide if we want to be restrictive in put further downward pressure on inflation And Jim bullard's reiterating his call for interest rates to go above 3% this year Stay tuned for more from the fed today We'll speak live with San Francisco president Mary Daly That's coming up at 1130 a.m. Wall Street time on Bloomberg radio and television Nathan the prospect of higher rates taking a toll on the bond market the Bloomberg global aggregate index The benchmark for government and corporate death total returns has fallen 11% from its high in January last year That's the biggest decline from a peak in data stretching back to 1990 It equates to a drop in the index market value of about $2.6 trillion When it comes to stocks John now is not the time to buy That's according to Muhammad el Arian the Bloomberg opinion columnist and chief economic adviser at Allianz says investors need to pair their holdings If I'm investing over the next 12 months horizon I would reduce equities at this point I would take some money off the table I think the market is giving you a wonderful opportunity to come out Muhammad Al Arian says equity markets have yet to factor in what's to come for the economy And speaking of the economy we have fresh data on wages this morning a new study shows a lot of Americans are still seeing pay below $15 an hour Bloomberg's Anita young joins us live with details Good morning Rene Good morning John a report from oxfam America finds one in three U.S. workers is still making less than $15 an hour And the share of women and people of color earning that amount is even greater The report helps quantify how Americans could be impacted by the raise the wage act which would set a $15 federal minimum wage The legislation is still pending in Congress While 25% of men earn less than $15 an hour the figure is 40% for women and 50% for women who are working of color Live in New York I'm raining a young Bloomberg day break All right we need to thanks very much and ahead of the cash over on Wall Street futures this morning They're lower than our futures down 42 points That's the decline of about a tenth of a percent S&P E mini futures 6 points lower and the NASDAQ futures right now They are down 20 points You're listening to Bloomberg daybreak.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"jim bullard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"What this path they have laid out clearly acknowledges that because here's the dot plots the new dots the new interest rate forecast for this year and two more We already had one 25 basis point hike 6 more this year That's a total of 7 taking the key rate to 1.9% but 7 of 16 if you look at the dots closely see the rate getting above 2% this year So they clearly see some 50 basis point rate hikes man That's in fact Jim bullard dissented just on that And you talk about 75 basis point hikes in the next two minutes That's easy You just need one 50 and one 25 and J Powell opened the door to this more or less at the press conference today Let's listen Every meeting is alive meeting And we're going to be looking at evolving conditions and if we do conclude that it would be appropriate to move more quickly to remove accommodation then we'll do so I can't be perfectly specific about it but that's certainly a possibility as we go through the year Here's what struck a lot of economists and people who saw what the fed did and watched the press conference Okay they updated the economic forecast right So here's what they're looking at They're going to see inflation at 4.3% this year and get it done at 2.7 next year But look at that Okay GDP growth they say oh they call me a slow little but it'll still be above trend But look at unemployment it barely budges and economists say look how are they going to get inflation down Magic Because to get inflation down don't you have to slow demand Don't you have to slow things down more than this According to this no they won't have to J pile said labor markets are tight There's a lot of people who are on the sidelines There's more job openings than there are people who are without jobs He's got that optimistic view and apparently the consensus on the fed does too but that's something people are already questioning How do you get it down if you don't slow it And that's the risk of recession Yeah that's the hard landing soft landing on what slowed down are they prepared to tolerate narrative isn't it So worried about recession And he talks about the strength of this economy I think the equity poison girls leaned into that but the bonds nah they're not on the trade Can I just make a lot of equity investors mad at me Well the bond market is always smarter than the equity market The bond guys are so skeptical The stock guys are so optimistic and they were so ready I think you talk about fear trained agreed They were ready for someone to tell them Don't worry about it We can find inflation We won't cause a recession But look at this This is something the more economist.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"jim bullard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"As we speak growing its balance sheet And I think the fed could show that at last it really gets it By having a special meeting for the purpose of simply ending QE It's not that the marginal purchases they're going to do over the next month are all that consequential They're not probably very consequential at all But I think the symbolism of ending it tomorrow would show that the fed has gotten a major wake-up call What about rate hikes We also had Jim bullard the president of the Kansas City fed this week and said look I think we should raise rates by a hundred basis points by June and by the way we should not limit to 25 increments What about raising rates Should it be done before the March meeting and should we be looking at things more than 25 basis point increases I don't think there's any need to do it before the March meeting I think the fed needs to be much more careful about the use of the forward guidance instrument in a world where it has shown itself to be so dismal a forecaster of what's going to happen in the economy Most of that is not the most of the poor forecasting is not the fed's fault to track the consensus and reflects the inherent difficulty of forecasting but nimble and humble does not mean making announcements about what you're going to do over periods of 6 months or a year in a highly volatile economy And the fed needs to go back to the old ways which are much more about nimble and nimble and humble I think it's a close call on the march on the march meeting I would be inclined to think.
Bloomberg Businessweek
Emerging market woes weigh on stocks, China deadline looms
"It's time for Kathleen Hayes, global economics and policy editor for Bloomberg news in our Bloomberg eleven three s studio here in midtown Manhattan. I love animals too. They say animal prints are going to be in in style is season. I say what are they saying? Is it always in style? Mom, raising her, right? Always. Carol master, you raising that girl, right? All right. The bond market the bond market is not wild today. Okay. Despite prints that we're all discussing up, but there's so much going on. I think if you're you're just sitting tight. What are you waiting for come on? You've got emerging markets to decline so much though. The Bloomberg news is now writing stories about developed economies with emerging market characteristics. Italy's? This just continues and continues Argentina's supposedly is best bet to get out of its mess is this know this expert on taxes on farm exports thirty year bonds down a quarter point heels at three point seven ten year note, flat two point nine zero right in the middle of the range. Trade huge deficit big with China. Canada's is trying to negotiate this intense deal with the US trade surplus with US widens to the most since two thousand eight that's the headline on Bloomberg news Jim Bullard in town, saying something he's been saying for a while. He thinks the flat yield curve is a signal that that that may be too restrictive. He said this over and over and over again, he's a guy who says, you know, we really don't need to do much more about where we