5 Burst results for "Jesse Rothstein"
"jesse rothstein" Discussed on WNYC 93.9 FM
"There's no doubt our democracy is flawed, but is it also our best hope, our institutions and our rules don't just have to be inherited from the past. We really can try to align them with what we think would be a better way. Professor jedediah purdy reminds us that no union is perfect, but we can work to perfect it. I'm Los Harris Perry and that's next time on the takeaway week the afternoon's at three on 93.9, FM. The brand new 2022 model year ADP hiring report is just hit the showroom. Marketplace morning report is supported by vantage score, vantage scores credit scoring models help expand financial inclusion by leveraging predictive analytics advantage score dot com. I'm David brancato in New York, new data suggests that hiring this month was still happening, but downshifted a few years. The payroll processor ADP draws from all the paychecks at prince to calculate that U.S. payrolls rose by 132,000. This could be a sign that higher interest rates are just starting to cool the labor market. The government's official hiring report doesn't come out till Friday, and this is the first revamped ADP report re-engineered by the ADP research institute in the Stanford digital economy lab after a number of occasions when this private sector analysis was notably out of sync with the government data that comes later, marketplaces and Euler reports. ADP says this new retooled report is not a forecast, like the previous version was, rather, it's an independent estimate of real time employment. It's built using ADP's payroll data, which Jesse rothstein at UC Berkeley says comes with its own limitations. They're basing their estimates on the companies that use ADP to process their payroll. That's not everyone. They've got a lot, and they do a pretty good job of trying to extrapolate, but there is some guesswork about what's going on with the non ADP firms. And that guesswork is a challenge for any group trying to put together economic estimates or forecasts. Lee school is senior economist at the economic policy institute. They're all based on some kind of a sample. Some kind of an estimation technique. And I think you have to take each one of them and get the information that you can from it. And the way that data is framed and marketed depends on who ends up using it. Will it be provided as a public service or sold as a product? It really does depend on what the mission of the organization is that's producing it. Erica groshen is a senior economic adviser at Cornell and former commissioner of the bureau of labor statistics or BLS. She says that because BLS is a government agency, they're obligated to be open and transparent about their sources and methodology. But private firms are more likely to consider their data and analysis, proprietary. If there are profit making company, then somehow there's a profit motive behind this as well. And in the end, she says, the most valuable analysis is inaccurate one. In Austin, I mean, the Euler for marketplace. After the Dow dropped 300 points yesterday, about 1% Dow futures are up 43 points or two tenths percent now S&P futures are up three tenths percent NASDAQ futures up 6 tenths percent the ten year interest rate is up, 3.14% the highest since June. Adding to Western Europe's natural gas crunch, Russia today turned off the main supply through the Nordstrom Nord stream one pipeline to Germany, saying it needs to do three days of maintenance
"jesse rothstein" Discussed on The Indicator from Planet Money
"This is the indicator from planet money. I'm waylon Wong, and it is jobs Friday. New employment numbers are out today and the U.S. economy added 372,000 jobs in June, significantly more than expected, and the unemployment rate is 3.6%, holding study from May. Now, in other months, this might be cause for the jobs Friday, air horn. But things don't feel so great in other parts of the economy. Inflation is still high, which is prompting the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates, which is raising fears that a recession could be on the way. It's an anxious time, especially for people who haven't been through an economic downturn as working adults. People like Jade Walters, who is 22 years old and graduated from Howard University last year. This is just so interesting for me because the new adult that this is all the things that I'm dealing with. And I'm confused too. And I'm still learning alongside everyone else. Jade is a Gen Z career coach. She shares advice with 29,000 followers on TikTok. Her generation is entering the workforce just as the recession talk is ramping up. And there's good reason for Jade and her peers to be worried. The generation before theirs still bears the scars of the last big downturn. After the break, we talk to an economist who studied the lasting effects of the Great Recession on that era's youngest workers, and we see what their experience might mean for Gen Z. One of the hallmarks of a recession is a large proportion of people who are available to work but can't find jobs. During the Great Recession, just over a decade ago, the unemployment rate in the U.S. climbs all the way to 10%. I just saw the Great Recession as this really cataclysmic event in the labor market. Jesse rothstein is a Professor of policy and economics at the University of California Berkeley. He says the Great Recession stood out for its long duration and slow recovery. These factors meant that young people in particular were still in bad shape even years after the recession officially ended. There's actually a term that describes longer lasting economic damage. Scarring effects. Jesse has studied the Great Recession scarring effects on people who enter the workforce during the downturn. It was a bigger deal than the other recent recessions in a way that we didn't fully understand or carrying around these scars from having entered in a bad time that may be affected how much you learned in your first job, maybe affected your ability to get a foot on the career ladder, but one way or another are affecting your ability to get a good job, even once they've come to me as recovered. It's such a visceral term. I think yeah, I think it's kind of us aren't always that good at that, but I think it does do a good job of capturing what we're after. Jesse focused on college graduates entering the labor market. And he wanted to look not just at young people who were trying to get jobs during the thick of the Great Recession, but also those who were jumping in while the economy was recovering in the 2010s. Jesse looked at two broad measures of the labor market. Wages and the employment rate. When it came to wages, the data showed that, as you might expect, people entering the labor market during the recession made less than previous cohorts. But then we just recovered. It was the second measure, the employment rate for new graduates entering the job market that showed an alarming pattern. There did seem to be people who started later. Who just never seemed to break into the labor market. It seems like it was harder than it was prior to the Great Recession. Bottom line, it was more difficult for newcomers to get jobs, even though the economy had been in recovery mode for several years. I think one way to make sense of that is that there was a big queue of people who had finished school during the Great Recession during the years when the unemployment rate was just taking a really long time to recover. And they were all waiting to get into the labor market. And they had maybe a built up a little bit of experience, then the labor market starts to recover. There are do start to be jobs. But now employers can choose between the new graduates or somebody with several years of experience who's willing to take an entry level job. Jesse says, once this dynamic gets established, we're new graduates are losing entry level jobs to older or more experienced workers. It becomes increasingly hard for those young workers to start their careers. And when they do get going, they're starting from behind. It's really hard to shake this recession hangover. Those younger workers will soon be the older workers. And if they are continuing to kind of carry the scars of a really historically bad labor market when they entered, that's going to make us poorer for decades to come. Jade Walters are Gen Z career coach him earlier, she landed her first job out of college last year. She works at advertising at a tech company. Her degree is actually in health education, but she had decided close to graduation that she wanted to pursue a different career entirely. I felt really lucky as just being someone in Gen Z were, I can, you know, I can just change my career as much as I want and use this time now to figure out what I want to do because I always hear a lot about sometimes some people, they'll be in a field from straight out of college and then they realize like ten years later that this isn't what they wanted to do. Jade's advertising job is her 9 to 5 and then her 5 to 9 as she calls it is the 9th semester. That's her Gen Z career coaching brand. One of her most popular tips is submit your application on a Sunday so that it'll be at the top of the pile on Monday morning. Another tip, when hiring managers ask at the end of interviews, so do you have any questions for me? Ask things like what is a typical day or what does your company do to help employees on their growth journeys? For Gen Z, one thing I really love about us is that when we don't feel welcomed in a space where we can feel like we're not growing, we leave, like we do not care, we will job hunt. We will find a place where we feel appreciated. Like another big thing I realized, once I started working, I'm like, oh my gosh, I must be working for like 40 years. This is a large chunk of my life. I want to be somewhere where I'm happy. But this current economic moment is where the ambition of Jade's generation could really clash with the harsh realities of what economists like Jesse rothstein are already seeing. I don't think people feel like I'm graduating in the best of all possible worlds. You know, the COVID period was a roller coaster. I don't blame people for being scared. A few months of a very low unemployment rate. Doesn't make it feel like it's a super secure world out there right now. Gen Z's formative young adult years were ones of relative prosperity, an era where it was possible to job hunt and go in search of more fulfilling work experiences. That period might be drawing to an end, replaced by one where jobs get a lot scarcer. Jesse worries that if the economy does head into a recession and unemployment climbs to something like 9%, that's where today's youngest workers will face the same kind of long-term damage as their predecessors. Quick reminder, the indicator and planet money are looking for our fall and winter intern. If you are a jobs Friday fanatic, you woke up at 8 30 eastern this morning to check the numbers. This could be you. The internship is paid and we would love to have you. Go to NPR dot org slash internships, the deadline is July 17th. Again, that's NPR dot org slash internships. This episode was produced by Brittany cronin and jamala huxtable with engineering support from Debbie daughtry. It was fact checked by Catherine Yang, Viet Lisa senior producer, Kate and Ken and
"jesse rothstein" Discussed on Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal
"More good news for the American labor market today. Another drop in first time claims for unemployment benefits 281,000 people filed last week the fewest in a year and a half. Pandemic layoffs are decreasing, yes, but it's also true that lots of workers are leaving their jobs voluntarily for lots of reasons as we've been telling you. An employers are having trouble filling those openings. Where then do you suppose the workers who were leaving their jobs are going? Marketplaces, Kristin Schwab takes a look. Right now, it is statistically more difficult to become a receptionist than it is to get into Harvard. That's according to data from zip recruiter where Julia Pollock is chief economist. I have a lot of bad news for job seekers in certain occupations. Some are much more competitive even. Some of these jobs are specialized or senior roles, but a lot of them are what Pollock calls pleasant jobs with predictable schedules in customer service or communications. Also jobs like airport security. So jobs where you have some degree of prestige, perhaps the uniform, and a union looking out for your interests. And growing interest in these jobs that are more stable and have better pay and benefits makes sense when you compare them to jobs that require similar skills and are begging people to come back. Think less predictable or less protected industries like trucking or restaurants. Daniel zhao, an economist at glassdoor, says understaffing has gotten so bad in those categories that it's actually compounding the problem and contributing to even more turnover. If you're a worker at a restaurant and suddenly the restaurant is short staffed, it's going to be that much harder for you to actually manage your shift. People are tired, burnt out, fed up. And a lot of them are looking for a new work from home lifestyle. Glassdoor says search for remote roles is up more than 350% in the last year. Whether everyone can get one is a different story. Jesse rothstein is a labor economist at UC Berkeley. I don't think it's reasonable to think that we're going to transition millions of hospitality and food service workers into IT jobs. He says eventually, something's gotta give, whether it's employers upping pay to attract workers or job growth in some sectors, petering out. Or at the end of.
"jesse rothstein" Discussed on KCRW
"A federal judge yesterday throughout antitrust lawsuits against the social media, big data and advertising firm that had been filed by the Federal Trade Commission and a coalition of 46 states here is the host of Marketplace Tech. My colleague Molly Wood. So really two things happened here first. The ruling said the agency needed to do a better job proving that Facebook was a monopoly. Instead of just saying, Hey, it's a monopoly. The judge gave the agency 30 days, though, to strengthen and re file the case. This ruling also said to these 40 something states that their lawsuit which would potentially unwind Facebook's acquisition of Instagram and WhatsApp, Was too late, the judge said. You can't wait until hindsight shows you that a merger is anti competitive to go back and try to undo it after the fact. Basically now, of course, it is possible that the FTC under its new commissioner, Lina Khan, will indeed update and refile an antitrust lawsuit on existing grounds. The ruling, though about the mergers lend strength to this idea that there might have to be new kinds of competition laws to deal with companies the size of Facebook. That may not exactly meet the legal definition of monopoly in the sense of pricing, pressure and consumer harm. But that do obviously have outsized influence and size. Molly would host of our sibling program marketplace. Tech governors of of about half the states, including some populist ones, like Texas and Florida, have now cut off payments of extra unemployment insurance provided by the federal government. People were already leaving the unemployment rolls. That's according to a new report from Jefferies Financial Group of those no longer drawing unemployment or UI are people who found work and people who remain out of work marketplaces, Caroline Champion reports. Why would people give up free money? The answer depends on who you ask Aneta Marco Ska, an economist with Jefferies says. For one thing, early deadlines can be motivating. People become more serious about their job search, and if they get offers, they take them. Marco Ska figures the people jumping off you. I have settled into new jobs. But Yale economist Dana Scott, who co authored a study on pandemic, unemployment, says that's not always the case. Workers know that employers are pretty desperate, Scott says. Some people may have already quit a new job and are holding out without pay for something better. Jesse Rothstein, who teaches public policy and economics at U. C. Berkeley, says What's happening with early deadlines won't be universal. Yeah, these states are very non representative. Rothstein says many of them lifted lockdowns awhile ago, and their unemployment rates were already falling faster than those in the rest of the US. These economists say they won't know the real effect of these deadlines until the state jobs numbers come out next month. I'm Caroline Champion for marketplace. Shall we do the numbers? The.
A 50-year low in jobless claims is not just from fewer layoffs
"A brief discourse. As we begin today on jobs. We talk about a Milan because their jobs and people need them routing a couple of hundred thousand every month in this economy. The unemployment rate as we learned Friday is the lowest it's been in fifty years and tomorrow, we will get another labor market metric something called the first time jobless claims people signing up for unemployment benefits for the first time, which is by the way, also at historic lows over the past year. But as marketplace's Sabrina show reports there is something other than the tight labor market behind. Why those claims are this low one reason fewer people are filing for unemployment. These days is because it has gotten harder and harder to file for unemployment. These days actually difficult. You know, it's just like other state agencies on it's very hard to get through amber, go Hagan lives in South Carolina in two thousand thirteen the legislature. Are there passed a sweeping overhaul of unemployment benefits, reducing the number of weeks? People could be on employment and the amount they could receive up in South Carolina. The max is only three twenty six week, you know, and obviously my bills keep going go higgin hasn't actually even started to receive any benefits yet. She's locked in a battle with the state over whether she qualifies in the first place states have been doing things to make it harder to get benefits in the first place and they've been doing things to make it harder to keep benefits. Once you have them. Michelle evermore is senior researcher at the national employment law project. She says this trend started after the recession when some unemployment insurance funds were rundown. So there's basically two ways to deal with a depleted unemployment insurance fund. One is just to fund the fund, but the second thing is to cut benefits some states have reduced. The number of unemployment offices in favor of online portals that in some cases, have proven dysfunctional nine states have reduced the length of time people can receive benefits to less than the standard twenty six weeks. Some like North Carolina went as low as. Just twelve weeks. South Carolina went to twenty. We were very happy with the change in the length of time. Ben homebuyer, direct South Carolina, which represents small businesses that pay taxes to support the unemployment insurance fund, the NFL be lobby to limit unemployment insurance in that state and Homer says those taxes have come down as a result. I mean, you could be on unemployment for years, and you know, in a lot of cases, we were concerned that there was was less incentive to come off of unemployment. How many weeks unemployment is enough is debatable data show that in today's economy people are unemployed for longer than in decades past just Rothstein is a professor of public policy and economics at UC Berkeley, the approach that we've taken over the last seventy years is that twenty six weeks is about the right amount of time in non recessionary times longer. When the economy goes south the results of tightening unemployment benefits, making them less accessible show up in the national numbers back in two thousand seven thirty five. Percent of unemployed workers were getting benefits today. Only. Twenty seven percent are fewer unemployed workers are even applying for unemployment to begin with these changes mean that those looking often don't get as much help as they used to sue Berkowitz directs the South Carolina Appleseed legal Justice center at talk with people who will call and say, I was turned down. I don't have any savings. I'm going to lose my home in a where can I turn? Where can I go so McConnell argue this will pose a bigger problem in the future? When benefits are needed even more Michelle evermore with the national employment law project. What's going to happen is we're gonna wait until there's a recession, but it will be two eight it's possible that the federal government would step in were there. Another national recession offer federal benefits pressure states to expand. There's Vincent Reinhart is chief economist at Mellon. I don't particularly worried right now that states are cutting back asymmetrically because when the time comes they'll get the nudge to put them back in place then again. Will they Jesse Rothstein a UC Berkeley again in practice? Those take awhile several months after after it's really needed. And that was in times when the federal government was better able to pass legislation than it is right now putting back unemployment benefits in a strong economy has saved some states money, but when a new recession hits, that's where some people start to be afraid. The repercussions are unclear