18 Burst results for "Jeffrey Cleveland"

"jeffrey cleveland" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

06:29 min | 6 months ago

"jeffrey cleveland" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Down in D. C. She's got World National headlines. Thanks, Jason. CDC director Robert Redfield is insisting to senators. There is no truth about political interference of the agency's creation of the Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, or and M W. R. At no time. As the scientific integrity of the M M. W R been compromised. And I can say that under my watch, it will not be compromised. As for when the vaccine might be broadly available, Redfield says, likely in the late second quarter, our third quarter of next year. The Senate Homeland Security Committee plans to subpoena some 40 officials who served under President Obama in its investigation of the probe into the Trump campaign's possible Russia connections. Bloomberg's Irv Chapman reports Committee Democrats, led by Senator Gary Peters objected. This is a partisan fishing expedition. Kim and Ron Johnson had the backing of his Republicans. Democrats seem intended every turn to frustrate and interfere with our oversight efforts. Republican Mitt Romney urged that the investigation be limited to actual wrong. Doing? It's very important that the committees of Congress not fall into a increasing pattern that we're saying to using taxpayer dollars and the power of Congress to do political work. Romney noted, therefore, that the committee won't be looking at the Hunter Biden in Washington. Irv Chapman Bloomberg Radio. The White House is looking like it's willing to increase its offer with Democrats on the next round of stimulus, chief of staff Mark Meadows says. President Trump is open to the compromise $1.5 Trillion proposal from a bipartisan group of House lawmakers called the Problem Solvers Caucus Global News 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg quick take powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts and more than 120 countries. I'm Nancy Lyons. This is Bloomberg. Back to you, Carol and Jason. Right, Nancy. Thank you so much. You are listening to Bloomberg. BusinessWeek, Jason Kelly and Carol Masser got another blockbuster team here on deck to help us understand what's going on. At the Fed. Dr. Stephen Skanky, of course, chief economic advisor at Kill Point, former U S Treasury and White House National Security Council staff member he's in Washington, D. C speaking the nation's capital, and Jeffrey Cleveland, chief economist for Peyton and Regal. He joins us on the phone from Los Angeles. Jeffrey, I want to start with you a cz. You sort of distill this down. Nothing seems to be shocking the market about this, but Steady as she goes or what? What do you see here? Well, I think this is more explicit for guidance, and I think I expected in a statement the Fed here pledging to keep great flow until inflation is back above 2% for some time. And we get the full employment. So I would say that is effectively pledging to keep interest rates at zero for forever for the foreseeable future. Unless you really expect inflation above, 2% defended the Fed is at zero. That was already priced in. So I think that's why markets are not reacting much, at least so far. You didn't have a rate high priced into the bond market until 2024. So that's that's nothing new, but I think it's interesting to think about Made more explicit that forward guidance standing most people expected in this particular meeting. I'm like blown away, Steve. Thank you. Come on in on this. I I'm curious. Do you think that this is a political decision One at least made A little bit with the election in November in mind. The Fed is obviously disappointed that there has been any action on the fiscal stimulus side of things jacked they. They've done about all that they can and being specific about that, and they they No in their announcement, And then the comments of individual epilepsy members made enough to the meeting that they remain concerned about the economy and the Tremendous human and economic hardship. They want again. Reiterate there their statement from six weeks to go. The path of the economy will defend significantly on the course of the virus and and we had daily infections. Yesterday, a 53,000 It's very frustrating for the feds. And and rather say something. Mohr about stimulus. Uh, they were just very explicit. No, no, Nicky braces zero. They're going to continue their their bond buying program, at least at the current rate, and may I implying that they may increase it about 120 month. Until there's just a possible evidence that they're reaching the employment targets and inflation. They is average Jane about 2% a year. For some period of time. It would be hard for them, Tio same or that would be encouraging and positive for the market. Well, and the market seems to be reacting Pretty positively. I mean, now taking a look Carol, the S and P in the Dow, definitely hitting their highs of the day, the NASDAQ creeping very close to there as well. So Jeffrey Cleveland, I mean, this is a market that I Not to be too silly about it, like loves the Fed. They have counted on the fed throughout this entire crisis. Well, there is no alternative. Right at this point. I mean, they're pushing people into equities. Yeah. What's the old adage? Don't fight the Fed. I think that that applies if really rates or going to be maintained at a negative level, so negative in T bill returns. Then investors, you know many of our clients looking elsewhere. So the investor great corporate space, the high yield corporate space, emerging market, dead and equities, there's your alternative. If you're looking for income in return, so I think that's still in play. I should also say that you know the there are risks. Of course, the one of them that we're worried about the fiscal released the lack thereof. The extension. But the data the economic data is better than last time. The Fed put out their projections that much more pessimistic projections from the FOMC is in June, and they've marked up their GDP forecast. They've marked down at least in terms of the unemployment rate lowering unemployment rate to 7.6,.

Fed Bloomberg Jason Kelly Carol Masser Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Irv Chapman Jeffrey Cleveland Robert Redfield Mitt Romney Senate Homeland Security Commi CDC Nancy Lyons Congress White House M M. W R President Trump President Obama Russia
How the Pandemic Is Creating an Odd Boom in Real Estate

Marketplace Morning Report with David Brancaccio

02:09 min | 7 months ago

How the Pandemic Is Creating an Odd Boom in Real Estate

"The pandemic is creating this odd boom in real estate. I'm David Brancaccio people lucky enough to keep their jobs during this pandemic seemed to be pondering their living situations a lot. The quarterly sales reporter by home. Depot today were up twenty five percent year-on-year increase double what was expected, and there's news that builders started work on a lot of new single family homes. Last month up twenty three percent Jeffrey Cleveland is the chief economist at the Investment Company Payden and Regal in Los. Angeles Good Morning Good Morning, David I mean you look at this new home data and you want a statistic. Leading Economic Indicators. Which sometimes, it is during normal times. But how much can we draw about the wider economy? What kind of conclusions can we draw about the wider economy based on construction of new homes? The reason why that tells us a lot about the economy is because housing is tied in to the web of the economy. So you know intimately there's employment they're spending the goes into a new home activity, and so you tend to see good sales data as well. I think in part that's why we are seeing retail sales bounce in recent months in sympathy with the housing data. Also things like spending at Home Depot, which we're hearing was topping expectations here for the second quarter. There's an inequality angle though because if you're have the wherewithal during pandemic to think about buying a new house so that the developers get all excited about building new homes. I mean, that's some people in this economy, but others are renters and the living more tenuously. WELL WE S-. We saw yesterday data on mortgage delinquencies switcher starting to creep up. But I am worried David that one of the things fueling all this. It's made this recession unique is the federal. Relief payments that went out really through the months of April May June July big chunk of that ended in. July and as yet it's unclear how or when that will be extended and I and I think that you know leaves question marks for the durability of this

David Brancaccio Home Depot Chief Economist Reporter Jeffrey Cleveland Angeles LOS
"jeffrey cleveland" Discussed on Marketplace Morning Report with David Brancaccio

Marketplace Morning Report with David Brancaccio

04:11 min | 1 year ago

"jeffrey cleveland" Discussed on Marketplace Morning Report with David Brancaccio

"Ahead of China's Lunar New Year celebrations concern about a deadly virus. Hit Asia's financial markets today. I'm David Brancaccio show. At least six people are dead and about three hundred confirmed sick in the Chinese city of Wuhan with the spread of a new strain of SARS like virus the World Health Organization his gathering tomorrow to decide whether to declare an international health emergency. All this says large numbers of people in Asia or set to travel for a big holiday marketplace colleague League the BBC's Victoria. Craig is following this for us from London so normally people take money out of the market ahead of this holiday but today that China's Shanghai Composite Index ended down one point four percent while the currency the yuan fell about half a percent. That's the biggest daily decline since August. If we drill down into the details I was just a bit shares of drug makers and companies that make facemasks rose by ten percent hitting the daily limit in China. Now there's not currently a treatment or vaccine for this virus Irish so people are buying up supplies to protect themselves against the spread Shares of Chinese Entertainment Company is those casinos movie theaters even luxury brands. Those is there also falling today and again looking at the calendar the Lunar New Year holiday starts Saturday. How might all that travel that comes with with those celebrations further? Play into this This is the busiest travel season for Asia and very important spending period. So forbid of comparison I can hear about one hundred and sixteen million people travel across the US for Thanksgiving and Christmas. Every year estimates though in Asia are for three billion trips to to be made across the region in the next week for Lunar New Year. So if you think about it if health concerns caused people to cancel flights travel plans altogether. That means they're not spending money money. In the towns and the cities they visit and so that could have a broader economic impact on the continent all right and US airports have begun screening for this corona virus as well marketplace colleague the BBC's Victoria Craig in London. Thank you thank you. Meanwhile with the impeachment trial opening in earnest in the Senate today president trump is in the mountains of Switzerland after delivering business and political leaders at Davos bullish assessment of the US economy. He called the US today. Quote a roaring geyser of of opportunity given lower taxes and the lowest unemployment rate in about a half a century growing income inequality in the US. He did not address directly and despite the exalted altered state of the US economy. The president today took a firm Swipe at the US Central Bank saying the Fed raised rates too quickly. And have they've been too slow to bring them back down. Jeffrey Cleveland is the Chief Economist. At payden and Regal in Los Angeles I think the Federal Reserve is an easy punching bag bolt for those on the right and those on on the left. I you know I think. The president wants Easier monetary policy obviously in an election year. Any president would want easier. Monetary policy to to boost is the boost the economy My personal opinion is appropriate. Setting for the federal funds rate has been reached. We we have easy policy in the US us the economy is doing fine. And we have growth Right around two percent and unemployment rate. That's lowest it's been fifty years. So how much more could you really really want out of the Central Bank. Now you do have this indicator for world trade that you'd like to share with us. It's out of South Korea and even though this is a brand new year here we have some twenty twenty data. Well David as you know. Most data is stale but this data point in particular attracts the first twenty days of South Korean Exports Sports and we just passed January twentieth and the data was week all throughout twenty nineteen as we saw weak global economic data We global trade volumes. But the data was down point two percents that's crean exports down point two percent versus eight year ago. It's a sign of a bottoming mean out in global economic activity. Jeffrey Cleveland is the chief economist at Payden and Regal. Thank you so much. Thank you now. The International Monetary Fund today slightly lowered its global economic forecast for this year.

US Asia president US Central Bank China David Brancaccio BBC Jeffrey Cleveland Chief Economist Victoria Craig trump Federal Reserve International Monetary Fund Wuhan SARS London World Health Organization
"jeffrey cleveland" Discussed on Marketplace Morning Report with David Brancaccio

Marketplace Morning Report with David Brancaccio

04:58 min | 1 year ago

"jeffrey cleveland" Discussed on Marketplace Morning Report with David Brancaccio

"This marketplace podcast is brought to you by aqua the open source digital experience company brands often struggle to find a comprehensive solution to power their DRUBEL websites and applications aqueous Platform enables you to build operate optimize at scale as the open source leader Aqua gives customers around the world the freedom to build tomorrow on their terms learn more aqua dot com programs with paychecks they work with you the way you want to work learn more at paychecks dot com slash marketplace tesla made money last quarter ahead line in itself I'm David Brancaccio in New York the Electric Car Company Tesla has delighted it's investors with news late yesterday it did not lose money after all the summer to fall quarter while Tesla's performance can be volatile it's the first prophet in a year the stock is up about seventeen percent right now marketplace's Justin hope was following this today yeah this is the first quarter since two thousand eighteen that tesla earnings releases showed profits instead of losses Teza lost over a billion in the first half the year the last quarter of the company has a lot of its success had to do with record vehicle deliveries that's basically vehicles that are sold and then delivered to customers also cost troll keeping expenses down yeah being a cost the company's been working on some grand if not grandiose project right a big factory in China which Tesla says now ready to go it wants to build another one in Europe and Tesla's also working on a crossover SUV and the semi truck and has plans for an electric pickup to one of its biggest projects is becoming a mass market automaker and a lot of that means focusing more on it's cheaper models like the model three sedan in fact CEO Elon Musk on a conference call yesterday said the Model S. an ex cars which run from eighty to a hundred grand are pretty niche and not the company's focus right now we're continuing to make them or for sentimental reasons than anything else they're really of minor importance to future still all that depends on whether consumer demand keeps up analysts suggested demand for new vehicles in the US and China is showing signs of weakness and also here in the US the federal tax credit for electric vehicles will go away next year and that could hurt the into its marketplace's Justin Ho thank you very much the stock market is open for the day and the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down forty five points it's about two tenths percent the S. and P. Five hundred up ten percent Nasdaq is up six tenths percent the benchmark ten year interest rate at the moment down at one point seven four percent the European Central Bank sat tight today leaving interest rates alone to give more time for stimulus to prod along the faltering euro-zone economy in the US caution light when it comes to durable goods orders in September which fell half a percent more than expected to explain. That's welcome Jeffrey Cleveland the chief economist at paid in in Re goal to the New York Bureau today's normally in Los Angeles good to see you great to see you David we did get orders for expensive long lasting goods in America durables doesn't look so good durables can be a monthly you know noisy series so that is something to keep in mind however we do I think would have a dichotomy a two-speed economy as we've talked about before on the one hand business investment is we can has been weak and that's what we see I think reflected in the data this morning manufacturing the industrial side has has weakened due to in part tighter interest rates from the Fed but also the trade war on the other hand the consumer still holding up we saw initial claims this morning did initial jobless claims they're down a little bit fewer people signing up for the first time for unemployment benefits right and we watched that because we is it as a proxy for layoffs and we don't WanNa see layoffs creeping up if layoffs creep up that's usually a sign that the economy is about to take a turn for the worse we don't see that right now layoffs are still low so that's good news for the US consumer at the chief economist at paid in Regal in Los Angeles. Jeffrey Cleveland thank you thank you these purity's and Exchange Commission in Washington has started an investigation into India's second largest company Infosys is the software giant that does a lot of work outsource from the West a whistleblower complaint alleges unethical accounting practices the BBC's Jug Deep Cheema has more from Mumbai this comes after an anonymous group called implies complained to the company's board and the US Securities and Exchange Commission alleging accounting and management misconduct to boost short-term revenues and profits the complaint centered around the firm CEO Salaries Parak- allegedly rushing through launch deals before they receive the required authorizations India's earn more doc it regulator the Securities and Exchange board of India is also looking into the matter Infosys stock is down fifteen percent this week.

chief economist Los Angeles Jeffrey Cleveland Infosys US Securities and Exchange Com India US Securities and Exchange board David New York Bureau Fed Regal CEO Salaries Parak America Exchange Commission Mumbai BBC Washington
"jeffrey cleveland" Discussed on 90.3 KAZU

90.3 KAZU

03:42 min | 2 years ago

"jeffrey cleveland" Discussed on 90.3 KAZU

"Motorists are advised to use an alternate route and can expect delays in this region. And the limits of the closure on highway one will continue at ragged point to the south, but has been extended from Paul slide to until further notice due to rainfall in the area, it's five forty nine. This is marketplace, I'm KAI Ryssdal. We talk with some degree of regularity about bonds on this program government bonds, first of all, and they're also important interest rates also corporate bonds debt that companies issue to borrow money to expand an invest, but not all debt is created equal. There are bonds that are super safe, and there are bonds that are less safe, but more remunerative, and that's lice of the corporate bond. World has been showing some signs of trouble. Marketplace's Justin ho has that one corporate bonds are graded by the ratings agencies ratings like a double a triple b Karen Rothman is at John Hancock acid. Management. The credit rating comes from the perceived risk of default bonds that score low are considered junk the formal phrases high yield. And this is not an insult. It's a wager. Higher return higher risk of the fault. Rothman says junk bonds are common for companies that tend to carry a lot of debt a good number of bonds are issued by energy companies other issuers in the market that are quite large. Telecommunications companies media and technology companies and healthcare companies sprint has been selling. Billions in junk bonds to help build its giant five G network. Del Sol junk bonds to finance and acquisition in two thousand sixteen junk bonds are part of a normal growing economy. But when there are signs the economy is slowing down that could mean that default rates in in the corporate space will pick up. That's Jeffrey Cleveland chief economist at paid in regal. He says that could explain why investors withdrew a record amount from junk bond funds last year. The volatile stock market isn't. Helping investors appetite for risk either. Cleveland says junk bonds are a barometer for economic slowdowns the times when you see the worst performance in high yield are around the time of a recession. So if that's why money is leaving the space that it that is more worrisome phenomenon. Investors aren't the only ones shunning junk bonds companies have an issuing them. Because those high yields are expensive to pay out. There wasn't a single junk bond sale in December. But there are signs of a recovery in the junk bond market for one companies are selling them again this month poetry prescribe is managing director at pan co prisoner if they wanna expand or do you want to buy another company at some point some of the companies are going to be pushed by the realities of their business to come to the market. But there are still concerns pass quality says right now investors are more worried about companies like General Electric, giant's beleaguered conglomerates whose corporate bonds haven't been given a junk rating yet the question with certain companies like GE. Eve where to have a lot of debt on their balance sheet and their earnings are presumably on one trajectory, and that's downwards the are at risk of becoming downgraded to yield right now. There's roughly a trillion dollars of that kind of barely passing that debt gets downgraded. It would flood the junk bond market making their values fall, even lower in their yields even higher in New York. I'm Justin how for marketplace. President Trump signed.

Jeffrey Cleveland Justin ho Karen Rothman KAI Ryssdal Paul President Trump General Electric chief economist New York sprint managing director John Hancock pan co trillion dollars
"jeffrey cleveland" Discussed on KCRW

KCRW

07:23 min | 2 years ago

"jeffrey cleveland" Discussed on KCRW

"Nor the details. Are that CHP is on the scene? Four twenty. This is marketplace, I'm KAI Ryssdal. We talk with some degree of regularity about bonds on this program government bonds, first of all, and they're also important interest rates also corporate bonds debt that companies issued a borrow money to expand an invest, but not all debt is created equal. There are bonds that are super safe, and there are bonds that are less safe, but more remunerative and that slice of the corporate bond. World has been showing some signs of trouble. Marketplace's Justin ho has that one corporate bonds are graded by the ratings agencies ratings like a double a triple b Karen Rothman is at John Hancock asset management the credit rating comes from the perceived risk of default bonds that score low are considered junk, the formal phrases high yield. And this is not an insult. It's a wager. Higher return higher risk of default. Rothman says junk bonds are common for companies that tends. To carry a lot of debt a good number of bonds are issued by energy companies other issuers in the market that are quite large. Telecommunications companies media and technology companies and healthcare companies sprint has been selling. Billions and junk bonds to help build its giant five G network. Del Sol junk bonds to finance and acquisition in two thousand sixteen junk bonds are part of a normal growing economy. But when there are signs the economy is slowing down that could mean that default rates in in the corporate space will pick up. That's Jeffrey Cleveland chief economist at paid in regal. He says that could explain why investors withdrew a record amount from junk bonds last year. The volatile stock market isn't helping investors appetite for risk either. Cleveland says junk bonds are a barometer for economic slowdowns the times when you see the worst performance in high yield are around the time of a recession. So if that's why money is leaving the space and that is that is more worrisome phenomenon. Investors aren't the only ones shunning junk bonds companies have an issuing them because those high yields are expensive to pay out. There wasn't a single junk bond sale on December. But there are signs of a recovery in the junk bond market for one companies are selling them again this month poetry per squalor, managing director at pan co prisoner if they wanna expand or they want to buy another company that some point some of the companies are going to be pushed by the realities of their business to come to the market. But there are still concerns pass qualley says right now investors are more worried about companies like General Electric, giant's beleaguered conglomerates whose corporate bonds haven't been given a junk rating yet the question. With certain companies like GE were to have a lot of debt on their balance sheet and their earnings are presumably on one trajectory, and that's downwards the are at risk off becoming downgraded to yield right now. There's roughly a trillion dollars kind of barely passing that debt gets downgraded. It would flood the junk bond market making their values fall, even lower in their yields even higher in New York. I'm Justin how for marketplace. President Trump signed the government employees fair treatment act of two thousand nineteen into law today unintentional irony aside, think about it for a second. It guarantees federal employees that they are actually getting paid whenever the shutdown finally ends. But there is a whole another group of people who are affected by this shutdown and most if not all of them aren't going to be getting anything when they go back to work government contractors is talking about people who do everything from computer programming to food service to you name it for the government, and that gets us to a special shutdown addition of our series, my economy stories of people, and how they are making a go of it out there this time, it's a retired government contractor near Washington DC. I'm Janet Martin. And I'm a retired software engineer used to work in government contracting. I started somewhere in the late eighties. So it was about twenty five years or so worked for many many different contracting firm. Firms little ones big ones. All across the spectrum the first shutdown. I went through was the Newt Gingrich shut down which was before this one the longest one ever. And I was very lucky. It was early on in my career. So I was not contributing a majority of income to the household. My husband had a good job at the time. It was just very stressful because I was home. I knew stuff was piling up. All I remember is. I ended up cleaning my house. All of them. I nervous energy. I remember running around the house cleaning everything some of the shutdowns were we were very lucky. They were just like, you know, shuts down on Friday opens backup by Monday. But some of them went on for a little while. Looking back on it. I realized that after that very first long shutdown that I was involved in. We always made sure we lived inside our paychecks. So we drive our cars till they literally fall apart in the driveway. We don't go on elaborate vacations. You know, we bought a house way back when thinking of eventually we would flip it for a bigger house. We've never done that it even affects me. Now. Even though I'm retired. I still kinda keep the expenses down as much as I can. We don't go out and go crazy. As I was listening to all of this shutdown information. I realized that's part of the decisions I've made over the years having this happen over and over and over again, you don't live. At the level that may be your paycheck would imply you could live because you know, that paychecks not. It may not be secure. Can't do this series without your help. So hook us up, and let us know how your economy is doing splash can do that at marketplace dot. Funnel note on the way out today in which I'm reasonably certain the Federal Reserve is just messing with it. The Fed's beige book came out today. The central banks regularly scheduled regional report on the American economy divided by its twelve districts. Well, the fed said was that most of the American economy is growing at a modest or moderate pace, which is fine, except we looked it up.

Federal Reserve Justin ho Karen Rothman KAI Ryssdal General Electric Cleveland Newt Gingrich government contractor Jeffrey Cleveland John Hancock President Trump managing director chief economist
"jeffrey cleveland" Discussed on KQED Radio

KQED Radio

03:28 min | 2 years ago

"jeffrey cleveland" Discussed on KQED Radio

"This is marketplace, I'm KAI Ryssdal. We talk with some degree of regularity about bonds on this program government bonds, first of all, and they're also important interest rates also corporate bonds debt that companies issue to borrow money to expand an invest, but not all debt is created equal. There are bonds that are super safe, and there are bonds that are less safe, but more remunerative and that slice of the corporate bond. World has been showing some signs of trouble. Marketplace's Justin ho has that one corporate bonds are graded by the ratings agencies ratings like a double. Triple b Karen Rothman is at John Hancock asset management the credit rating comes from the perceived risk of default bonds that score low are considered junk, the formal phrases high yield. And this is not an insult. It's a wager. Higher return higher risk of the fault. Rothman says junk bonds or common for companies that tends to. Carry a lot of debt a good number of bonds are issued by energy companies other issuers in the market that are quite large. Telecommunications companies media and technology companies and healthcare companies sprint has been selling. Billions in junk bonds to help build its giant five G network. Del Sol junk bonds to finance and acquisition in two thousand sixteen junk bonds are part of a normal growing economy. But when there are signs the economy is slowing down that could mean that default rates in in the corporate space will pick up. That's Jeffrey Cleveland chief economist at painting and regal. He says that could explain why investors withdrew a record amount from junk bond funds last year. The volatile stock market isn't helping investors appetite for risk either. Cleveland says junk bonds or a barometer for economic slowdowns the times when you see the worst performance in high yield or around the time of a recession. So if that's why money is leaving the space and that is that is more worrisome phenomenon investors. The only ones shunning junk pants companies have been issuing them. Because those high yields are expensive to pay out. There wasn't a single junk bond sale December. But there are signs of recovery. In the junk bond market for one companies are selling them. Again this month poetry prescribe is managing director at panko prisoner. If you wanna expand or they want to buy another company at some point some of the companies that are going to be pushed by the realities of their business to come to the hail market. But there are still concerns. Pass quality says right now investors are more worried about companies like General Electric, giant beleaguered conglomerates whose corporate bonds haven't been given a junk rating yet the question with certain companies like GE where to have a lot of debt on their balance sheet and their earnings are presumably on one trajectory, and that's downwards the are at risk of becoming downgraded to high yield right now. There's roughly a trillion dollars of the kind of barely passing that. If that debt gets downgraded. It would flood the junk bond market making their values fall, even lower in their yields even higher in New York. I'm Justin how for marketplace. President Trump signed the government.

Jeffrey Cleveland Karen Rothman Justin ho KAI Ryssdal President Trump General Electric John Hancock chief economist New York managing director sprint panko trillion dollars five G
"jeffrey cleveland" Discussed on WNYC 93.9 FM

WNYC 93.9 FM

03:35 min | 2 years ago

"jeffrey cleveland" Discussed on WNYC 93.9 FM

"Here on WNYC. This is marketplace, I'm KAI Ryssdal. We talk with some degree of regularity about bonds on this program government bonds, first of all, and they're also important interest rates also corporate bonds debt that companies issue to borrow money to expand an invest, but not all debt is created equal. There are bonds that are super safe, and there are bonds that are less safe, but more remunerative, and that's lice of the corporate bond. World has been showing some signs of trouble. Marketplace's Justin ho has that one corporate bonds are graded by the ratings agencies ratings like a double a triple b Karen Rothman is at John Hancock asset management the credit rating comes from the perceived risk of default bonds that score low are considered junk, the formal phrases high yield. And this is not an insult. It's a wager. Higher return higher risk of default. Rothman says junk bonds are common for companies that tends to carry a lot of debt a good number of bonds are issued by energy companies other. Issuers in the market that are quite large. Telecommunications companies media and technology companies and healthcare companies sprint has been selling. Billions in junk bonds to help build its giant five G network. Del Sol junk bonds to finance acquisition in two thousand sixteen junk bonds are part of a normal growing economy. But when there are signs the economy is slowing down that could mean that default rates in in the corporate space will pick up. That's Jeffrey Cleveland chief economist at paid in regal. He says that could explain why investors withdrew a record amount from junk bond funds last year. The volatile stock market isn't helping investors appetite for risk either. Cleveland says junk bonds are a barometer for economic slowdowns the times when you see the worst performance in high yield are around the time of a recession. So if that's why money is leaving the space and that is that is more worrisome phenomenon. Investors aren't the only ones shunning junk bonds companies have been issuing them. Because those high yields are. Expensive to pay out. There wasn't a single junk bond sale in December. But there are signs of recovery. In the junk bond market for one companies are selling them. Again, this month Pucci per squall is managing director at pan co Prisma if they wanna expand or do you want to buy another company at some point some of the companies that are going to be pushed by the realities of their business to come to the hail market. But there are still concerns. Pass quality says right now investors are more worried about companies like General Electric, giant's beleaguered conglomerates whose corporate bonds having given a junk rating yet the question with certain companies like GE where to have a lot of debt on their balance sheet and their earnings, you know, are presumably on one trajectory, and that's downwards the are at risk of becoming downgraded to yield right now. There's roughly a trillion dollars kind of barely passing that debt gets downgraded. It would flood the junk bond market making their values fall, even lower. Lower in their yields even higher in New York. I'm Justin ho for marketplace. President Trump signed the.

Jeffrey Cleveland Justin ho Karen Rothman KAI Ryssdal President Trump General Electric chief economist John Hancock New York Pucci sprint managing director trillion dollars five G
"jeffrey cleveland" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

14:14 min | 2 years ago

"jeffrey cleveland" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"This is the story that we need to be focusing. So it's simple. So we've always talked. So goes, a USO goes the rest of the world Jeffrey. So I mean, I am curious certainly from an investor's perspective that if the rest of the world is kind of not so great it twenty nine hundred. Do we start to see you know, money and investment flows back into US markets. He not I would just echo the earlier comments. The fed is one thing. And I don't think they delivered. What market so poor here to sort of turn risk markets around. Hey, but we're watching next is the global data. We do see some stabilization or even a little bit of a pickup in Europe that helps if China dip the data they're up stabilizes and picks up a little that would be a key point. And then the oil price story. I mean, much what's Wayne on many client investor minds is the downdraft and oil is at a supply story or is that global growth. Well, what do you think it is Jeffrey I think it's supply it's weighing on the market price. That's right, Carol then. It's not this demand. Global growth slowdown story. It's more of a temporary thing we come back in the year head we get that that that will provide some support to the market. That's a bear market. I just wanna remind everybody WTI crude it is down thirty seven percent since the beginning of October. So yeah, it's been dramatic. And for instance, how do you think about oil in the broader picture here? Well, I think about it all day every day because to me it's been the biggest incremental change to the macaroni atmosphere is absolutely oil and US dollar are the most important calls of two thousand nineteen flows through into inflation expectations and therefore bonds it flows to inflation forecasts it flows through to consumer activity business investment to the downside EM's major developed economies. Like, Canada, the Nordics that are relying on oil when oil moves to that degree, the entire macro, environment shifts and also be keeping my eye on US dollar. I think that's a really key input for the Federal Reserve outweighs Francis. Okay. That's really a bummer for those oil-based economies and oil based companies. But what about making it cheaper for consumers and also cheaper for companies? I mean, we constantly talk about the US economy, and it's all about the consumer. Well, that's very true. And this is one of the reasons I like, the consumer as not just a pillar of US growth, but global growth in the first quarter this here, they get tax receipts. That's great. They get gas relief. That's good and those headwinds from higher interest rates and mortgages those shakeout by about spring. So that's a bright spot. But let's not forget that the energy sector has grown to be fairly sizable in the United States. And we're at a point when we judge the economic data here that it's difficult to say in any given quarter does falling oil actually help or hurt the US economy, the old correlations. They don't exist today. It's so funny because right we spent so much time talking about big tech over the last year. But we have yet. Are we forget how important energy is? Let's remind everybody of the news, right? So you're listening to Bloomberg BusinessWeek here on a Wednesday afternoon. It is fed day. We did hear from the Federal Reserve that they are indeed as expected hiking rates, some commentary that we heard that risks are quote, roughly, balanced, the fed judges that. Some further gradual increases are warranted and signalling to twenty one thousand nine hikes versus three which was there September estimate stocks. The major indices now turning positive. We have seen the move lower. And all the way into the negative at the moment. The Dow up about half of one percent s&p similar and the NASDAQ now in the green after being in the red for quite some time after the decision there now up about one tenth of one percent, Carol and just a quick check on the ten year note two point eight percent. We were at eighty two heading into the fed decision at the end of the curve at two year note with the other two sixty seven which is a little bit of a who believe it or not where we were just before that fed decision. We're talking about Francis. Donald different Manulife in Jeffrey Cleveland at pain and regal just twenty seconds Francis. What do you wanna hear from Jay pouches just quickly? I want to know how he's different from the dots. Selfishly? That's what I wanna know. I wanna know how is thinking about the world differently than these optimistic Datsun two thousand nineteen and twenty twenty where he's getting. That optimism and why hasn't changed at. Hey, Jeffrey, Cleveland, what do you want to hear from Jay Powell who speak in just a few seconds? I think investors really are interested not just in the fed funds rate, which we focused on but also on quantitative tightening so-called, so any thinking has changed around the balance sheet size when it might stabilize any any type of like that. I think it would be interesting for risk assets. Jeffrey, Cleveland, one more follow up. What would he what surprise you coming from Jay Powell? Surprising. Regarded the balance sheet, it's something is going to shift soon on that. Leading role offense fifty billion per month sooner than than we think we think that should continue over the next year or so, so sooner. Ceasing of that decline. That would surprise me. Jeffrey Cleveland is chief economist at Peyton and regal in Los Angeles. Joining us on the phone from their Princess Donald head of macroeconomic strategy at Manulife asset management here. This in our Bloomberg interactive brokers studio, thank you both. All right. Jay Powell stepping up and getting ready to give his speech and answer questions from the press community. Let's head to Washington. Over the past year. The economy has been growing at a strong pace. The unemployment rate has been near record lows and inflation has been low and stable all of those things remain true today. Since the September meeting of the FOMC. However, some cross-currents have emerged. I'll explain how my colleagues, and I are incorporating those cross-currents into our judgments about the outlook and the appropriate course of policy. Since september. The us economy has continued to perform well roughly in line with our expectations. The economy has been adding jobs at a pace that will continue bringing the unemployment rate down over time. Wages have moved up for workers across a wide range of occupations. A welcome development. Inflation has remained low and stable and is ending the year a bit more subdued than most had expected. Although some American families and communities continue to struggle and some longer term economic problems remain, the strong economy is benefiting many Americans. Despite this robust, economic backdrop, and our expectation for healthy growth, we have seen developments that may signal some softening relative to what we were expecting a few months ago. Growth and other economies around the world has moderated somewhat over the course of two thousand eighteen albeit still solid levels at the same time. Financial market volatility has increased over the past couple of months and overall financial conditions tightened that is they have become less supportive of growth. In our view. These developments have not fundamentally altered the outlook most FOMC participants have instead modestly lowered their growth and inflation forecasts for next year. The projections of committee. Participants released today show growth continuing at healthy levels. The unemployment rate falling a bit further next year. And inflation remaining near two percent. The projections. Also show a modestly lower pass for the federal funds rate, which should support the economy and keep us near our goals. As the economy struggled to recover from the financial crisis and subsequent recession. The committee held our policy rate near zero for seven years to give the economy the best chance to recover in economy did recover steadily. If slowly at times. Three years ago. The committee came to the view that the best way to achieve our mandate was to gradually move interest rates back to levels that are more normal in a healthy economy. Today. We raised our target range for the short term interest rates. By another quarter of a percentage point. As I've mentioned most of my colleagues expect the economy to continue to perform well in the coming year. Many FOMC participants had expected that economic conditions would likely call for about three more rate increases in two thousand and nineteen. We have brought that down a bit. And now, I think it is more likely that the economy will grow in a way that will call for to interest rate increases over the course of next year. We always emphasize that our policy decisions are not on a preset course in will change, the incoming data. Materially changed the outlook. And given recent developments the statement notes that we will continue to monitor global economic and financial developments and assess their implications for the economic outlook. Now, I will provide some additional context in detail starting with the review of policy over the last year. Last december. The unemployment rate was four point one percent and inflation had been running just below two percent FOMC participants and many other. Forecasters were predicting that growth in two thousand eighteen will be strong growth was predicted to push the unemployment rate down to near historic lows in the increasingly tight labor market was expected to help push inflation up to two percent. Given this outlook committee members judged at the appropriate way to sustain the expansion with inflation near two percent was to continue gradually withdrawing the extraordinary support for the economy that had been in place for almost ten years, thus in December two thousand seventeen the median of the projections of FOMC participants pointed to three quarter point interest rate increases in two thousand eighteen which would have left the target range for the federal funds rate at year end at two to two and a quarter percent still below most estimates of the longer run normal rate. Early in two thousand eighteen it became clear that the economy was likely to be even stronger than we had expected in part because the fiscal stimulus adopted near the start of the year was larger and more front end loaded than most hand -ticipant. The signs of a more robust economy proved accurate and the FOMC has now raised rates four times this year, counting today's action. One more time than anticipated in the median projection a year ago. This illustrates the nature of data dependence that we always emphasize in two thousand eighteen the economy was somewhat more robust than expected and this led to a slightly faster pace of policy normalization they normalization than had been projected. When the economy has instead turned out weaker than expected, the committee has slowed or paused the pace of race rate increases as we did in two thousand and sixteen. And when the economy has performed about as expected, the committee has generally moved in line with the median projection as we did in two thousand seventeen. What kind of year will two thousand nineteen be? We know that the economy may not be as kind to our forecast next year as it was this year. History attests that unforeseen events as the year unfolds made buff at the economy and call for more than a slight change from the policy projections released today. With that caveat, there are two important differences in the policy outlook today versus next year. In early two thousand eighteen we saw a rising trajectory for growth today. Instead, we see growth moderating ahead. Epilepsy. Participants along with many other forecasters headlong predicted some moderation of growth in two thousand nineteen additional tightening of financial conditions. We've seen over the past couple of months along with signs of somewhat weaker growth abroad. Have also led us to Mark down growth and inflation projections of bit the meeting of FOMC participants projections shows growth of three percent this year and two point three percent in two thousand nineteen. With growth remaining next year above its longer, run normal value. The unemployment rate is projected to fall a bit further to three point five percent by the end of two thousand nineteen inflation in the median projection remains near two percent. Second the economy has continued to strengthen this year. And given our four rate increases any ongoing reduction our portfolio monetary policy will be providing a smaller boost to the economy in two thousand nineteen after today's action the target range for the federal funds rate is two and a quarter to two and a half percent. Putting it at the lower end of the range of estimates of the longer run normal rate provided by the committee. Over the next year if events play out broadly expected federal funds rate will be in a range in which judgments of people both inside and outside the fed will sometimes differ regarding whether the stance of policy is miles. Modestly accommodative neutral or modestly restrictive when rates are in this range, the FOMC makes policy in light of the array of diverse views on the committee. Moving forward. My colleagues, and I will be watching close the economy closely for indications at the stance of policy is appropriate to sustain the expansion with a strong labor market and inflation near two percent. It's worth noting that the summary of economic projections is a compilation of the individual projections of all FOMC participants. We sometimes point to the median of these projections to illustrate the broad middle of views of the committee. Each participant's projection represents appropriate policy under the baseline outlook baseline outlook provided by that participant. We believe that the provides useful information about committee participants thinking, but the median is not a consensus judgement, and certainly does not represent a committee plan actual policy will as always be adjusted as incoming data shed light on the state of the economy the outlook and the changing balance of risks. These are the pace nor the ultimate destination of any further rate increases is predetermined. We will adjust monetary policy. As best we can to keep the expansion on track the labor market strong and inflation near two percent. We know that our policy decisions affect all American families and businesses and will continue to make our decisions, objectively and based solely on the best information and analysis. Thank you. I'll be happy to take your.

FOMC US Federal Reserve Jay Powell Jeffrey Cleveland Carol USO Europe Donald Jeffrey I China Wayne Cleveland Jeffrey Bloomberg
"jeffrey cleveland" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

10:11 min | 2 years ago

"jeffrey cleveland" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"To Bloomberg BusinessWeek here on a very exciting fed day. I'm Jason Kelly alongside Carol Massar. And this is Bloomberg radio. That was the big Jason about how dovish Jay Powell fed chief would come as a result or be as a result of this. Latest fed decision are the fed, of course out with its latest decision last decision. In fact, on interest rates in twenty eighteen as expected raising rates trimming its forecast for hikes in twenty nine thousand nine from three now down to two as we await the press conference with fed chief Jay pal that will happen at the bottom of the hour suggest about fifteen minutes from now, let's get some analysis on what we heard from the fed Francis. Donald in the house senior economist at Manulife asset management in our Bloomberg interactive brokers studio along with Jeffrey Cleveland, his chief economist at paid and in regal joins us on the phone from Los Angeles. For instance, let's kick it off with you. So the fed okay dove. How much of a dove did Jay Powell Cobb off or not even much this barely fits addition of adultish hike from my perspective. We could have gotten so much more pessimism. Baked into the statement. This is not going to be enough for markets to feel satisfied. That they've made a real turn in their view of what's happening in two thousand nine hundred and twenty there weren't significant changes to the language. They could've changed further gradual increases to adjustments. For example, all it did was out of the word some new changes in any material way too long run growth expectations and those dots that could have done so much more to them to signal. So the the big issue here is that there's still a substantial disconnect between what markets are expecting. And what the fed is suggesting is going to happen next. And so Geoffrey, what do you make of that disconnect? You agree with what France has just laid out read it. Yeah. You're the huge disconnect right now between the the market and the fed defended thing still additional rate hikes to three at still more to the market has priced in the market. Right out the curve is flattening us. That's what you're seeing reflected here in the aftermath. And I was actually the statement. It was marginally hawkish can use. The in the sense. They did you know, it was easy to throw in some risks just pay pay respects to the global risk. But you know, that that's pretty cheap and easy to do. They didn't really do anything fundamental to ship their view. They still see the economy's on track. And they're going to be hiking further the market doesn't by who's. Right. So FRA Francis. Coming on that first are the markets writer the financial markets, right? In terms of what they're seeing in the economy. It's not like we have CEOs coming out and telling us everything's falling apart of that. We did have the FedEx EEO or the FedEx company coming out with their latest results last night, and they were kind of talking about slowdowns in terms of the global economy. But whose right is it what the feds looking at and what they're seeing for the economic outlook our financial markets. Right. Well, historically, financial markets have been right. So that's an important consideration. But the way that I look at this as someone who actually asked to make investment decisions is the risk is asymmetric here. The market is already pricing in less than one rate hike for twenty nine thousand nine. The fed still at to which direction is it more likely to go into I'd say in the near term or more likely to have to get closer to the idea that Xs possible, especially because q one and q two twenty nineteen actually look like they could provide some upside surprise where I think the fed is wrong. Here is on that twenty twenty rate hike. They still have baked into their dots twenty twentieth. Shaping up to be a really difficult years. Anybody really have visibility on twenty twenty. Let's be fair here. How much how much do you really feel like we can look Francis. At the outlook and say, okay, I feel pretty confident about the hard truth is that economists really don't have great visibility more than twelve months out. But there are some things that we know impact an economy without with about an eighteen month lag. And those things are monetary policy. We already know that we have substantial rate hikes in the pipeline. The bulk hidden in twenty twenty we know that there's a substantial fiscal drag that's going to happen in two thousand twenty we know these things unless there's a material change them. We know that these are going to create a could drag on growth in two thousand twenty now if they're hiking in March of this year, they're hiking into that soft patch of growth in two thousand twenty. Exactly to me. The big disappointment today, or what will really weigh on the market sentiment is not twenty nine thousand nine persistent twenty twenty dot and that failure to revise twenty twenty expectations lower for growth. So Jeffrey just come on in just a second. But just reminding people the markets are continuing to bounce around a a little bit. We have the Dow up about four tenths of one percent SNP up about three tenths of one percent. Nasdaq still trading lower about two tenths of one percents of Jeffrey turn to you in about eleven minutes or so give or take we're going to hear from chair Jay Powell, what do you need to hear from him to what do investors need to hear to make them feel better about this decision about this statement? You know, I think the markets are are getting this wrong. You know, getting the outlook wrong. Liquidity issues balance constraint were going into the year and people are meeting making a working at the market moves declined equity than changing their macro story. And the way they do that and say, oh, there's these these things globally. Just think we've gone too far in that direction. And so anything he can say to just convey reiterate, the strength that Betty see these the underlying strength, the US economy, strong, labor market conditions guest are risks. But everything's still seems to be on the right track that could maybe bring the the market around. But I don't know there's a wide Gulf as we head into this press conference from what I'm seeing on the screen, so Jeffrey, let's talk a little bit about that press conference. What do you want to hear from Jay Powell who is just not talk about this all the time magazines covered? Some really great perspectives on him in terms of his background. Right. He's not the academic that we've seen from Janet Yellen or Ben Bernanke. This is a real practitioner at understands Washington understands the investment world. So we'll maybe. Yeah. Maybe he'll go back to the analogy that he rolled out a couple of weeks ago. You know, just reiterating that as long as the data justifies it the fed thinks it's moving back toward the neutral setting. They don't know exactly where that neutral setting. Analogy he used of course, is that light switch in a darkened room. They still think it's higher than than where we all right now in terms of the fed funds rate setting, but they're not wedded to that. It's not a preset course, I think that's the that'll be underlying mantra that he tries to leave. Again, the market has a very different scenario in mind. The market is thinking that this is you know, we we've had a rate hike here. But that's it. What was done for the cycle? That's what I see priced into futures market. And the and the economy is about to rollover tardy, really distinct different views here. Interesting environment for veterans, if you wanna bet one way or the other though, so Francis is forward guidance sort of useless. At this point. Should we just sort of back off of that? And just let the dated do its work and not get so caught up in, you know, kind of what had what and how many and when and interpreting all of this language well in twenty nine thousand nine hundred a little bit of a predicament, which is that it's clear Powell wants to remove the last vestiges of forward guidance from his statement, although he didn't remove the some further gradual increase today, which suggests you still okay with it at the margin, but in twenty nine hundred, and we know they're going to be pulling back as near the end of their hiking cycle focusing a lot more on the data. But at the same time, we have press conferences from howl at every single meeting. So all of a sudden, we're going to be hearing more from Powell, but yet he'll be saying less. I don't know how markets still with us. I think actually it's a high volatility regime, and there's going to be a lot more focus on all those. I hear secondary economic data points that come in. It's not a fun market to play around and give it I wonder to Jeffrey if we when we start to hear from companies, I'm kind of looking forward to the next round of earnings can be a bit of a. Behind as we go through all the numbers. But I do feel like we need to hear from corporate America about what they're seeing in terms of their businesses in the outlooks. Yeah. I think will ultimately what happens with the fed funds rate. Carol depends on what happens with growth with earnings out over the next twelve months. So that's really the key in the heart of it. Right now, the bond market has a as a slow down, and perhaps even a cut priced in. To the to the out years. So if the data defies that we will have a different outcome. That's my that's where I'm betting I think growth will hold up over the next twelve months. Corporate earnings will hold up for not perhaps not at the rate that we've seen in twenty eighteen but we'll still be these in in two thousand nineteen and the unemployment rate, I guess perhaps most importantly by the end of next year. It could be three point two percent, Carol. And if that happens, then that's below what the fed is expecting right now based on their projections. And I think that would justify further additional rate increases in the market will end up being wrong over that period, the bond market and so Francis what what would make the market feel better setting the fed aside because I think it's safe to say that the fed has been one thing that's obviously been weighing on this market. But there's also trades. Also sort of general economic concerns this geopolitical concerns what what would make us feel better. Well, clearly, a more optimistic fed isn't. We're seeing in the market pricing right now this bear flat near almost markets are almost like stubborn children. And you say everything's gonna be okay. And they say, I don't believe you at all. Sasha invert? I think what would really help here is. Just a nice upside surprise, the data good old fashioned could until the data data in particular. The labor market the global labor market is pretty tight labor market. Now, the problem, we're good with jobs. That's not the issue here. The big issue is inflationary expectations. They are very weak on the back of oil and concerns about global activities, so China, we did get a targeted rate cut today from China, and let's not forget that as folks today on the fed European upside surprises, I think that would be fantastic for the US curve right now, if we had just a little more hawkish us from the but at the end of the day, this really comes down to what twenty twenty is talking about business investment, a strong consumer exports. It's a simple GDP equals c plus I plus g plus affects you know..

fed FRA Francis Jay Powell Jeffrey Cleveland Carol Massar Bloomberg Jay Powell Cobb US BusinessWeek Jason Kelly Jay pal Los Angeles Bloomberg interactive brokers chief economist
"jeffrey cleveland" Discussed on WINS 1010

WINS 1010

02:42 min | 3 years ago

"jeffrey cleveland" Discussed on WINS 1010

"Or on demand so 126 now bloomberg money watch on ten ten wins this will be a big day for economic indicators wall street journal direction could be determined by the labor department's december employment report forecasters think about one hundred ninety thousand jobs were created and the unemployment rate remained at four point one percent other government reports will cover international trade and factory orders there may have been a slight acceleration in service sector activity is tracked by the supply managers nonmanufacturing index chief economist jeffrey cleveland at payton and ride goal talk to bloomberg radio about the tax overhaul saying it comes at a time when it's not really needed it outlook for gdp a little bit but i would feel i'll be on the us economy if we did not get a fiscal stimulus or tax plan the presidents of the federal reserve banks of philadelphia and cleveland will both be speaking in philadelphia today and insidious the last key and mali's game debut at movie theaters today bloomberg money watch at twenty six and fifty six past every hour i'm jeff challenger 410 ten wins every evening on the cbs evening news radio new jersey still a catholic hold thousand faisal both so what i say is what i mean that we are ready flat white supremacy what would you say to the folks in washington were talking about cutting back on that could and a have the blood of a lot of innocent people in re in disgust with the extremely dry conditions that are thriving xpress sweeping wildfire real news every evening ambush cbs evening news were getting a party start take day stop mike craziness twenty years ago that is not true rod eight zero glad i think under no from marriage what was gone borbon every day fowler you will arrive here tall zalm rhythm cbs weekdays zambia sunday at one shot at this guy was do this the ages ncis los angeles naval criminal investigative service no they are michigan we have got one define we need to go undercover no they were in the with capable of pool running out of time no no limits gone off book for this went off there is no book for this don't miss ncis los angeles cbs sunday or stream it live or on demand cbs tuesday what are we now ncis whose more than a team dare.

labor department unemployment rate jeffrey cleveland payton fiscal stimulus philadelphia faisal washington fowler cbs bloomberg chief economist us cleveland mike michigan twenty years one percent
"jeffrey cleveland" Discussed on KYW Newsradio 1060

KYW Newsradio 1060

02:06 min | 3 years ago

"jeffrey cleveland" Discussed on KYW Newsradio 1060

"I five quarter in our area and south jersey we're seeing winter storm warning for the snow will develop tonight little 21 three to six inches in and around the city philadelphia but as you get closer to the pros declines to six to ten and then bitterly cold and windy for friday eighteen it's thirty one now over a half million cars in the delaware valley have the hd radio's if years is one of them what to do and where to eat is on sheer philly radio at ninety six point five fm hd 3 the current cold snap seems to be impacting restaurant the mold city restaurants are feeling the impact of the cold we are really dependent hunt by traffic so it's probably keeping some people in our lunch russia's a little bit slower than it would be this year into startled burly but it's stream of the stronger did you notice a sudden drop in customers just relaunched business red nose working much because of the cold i think people are really just trying to get to where they are going to want to make any extra stops also people are probably taking more ubers and taxis chosen they're not walking by your store pretty much that coffee shop owner tells me she has to account for the weather throughout the year in regard to her business nobody likes figure out in the cold nobody likes come out in the scorching here the rain and snow restaurant as a fickle business absolutely is as it is in old city hadas kuznits kyw news radio kyw news time 555 it is time for business with jeff bellinger from bloomberg business another update for wall street the key indexes all closed at record highs the dow jones industrials rose ninety eight points or fourtenths percent to 24 thousand nine twenty two the nasdaq gained fifty eight points or eight tenths percent the sp 500 added seventeen points a gain of six tenthpercent percent there are no big surprises in the minutes from the federal reserve's december meeting most of the fed policymakers indicated they continue to support gradual interest rate increases chief economist jeffrey cleveland payton and regal thinks central bankers will stay on track this year that story in about it and where policymakers birkin turned out you may be put away but i don't think that appears to be the case cleveland says four rate hikes for the year would make sense factories were humming at the end of last year.

philadelphia delaware valley russia jeff bellinger nasdaq jeffrey cleveland payton philly bloomberg dow jones fed chief economist five quarter six inches
"jeffrey cleveland" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

01:58 min | 3 years ago

"jeffrey cleveland" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Up seventeen at a record twenty seven twelve first closed above twenty seven hundred odd sixtenths of bumper set the dow rally ninety seven to twenty four thousand nine hundred twenty one up four tenths of one percent nasdaq up fifty eight that was a gain of eighttenths of 1 percent now as for us markets and the tax plan jeffrey cleveland as chief economist at paid and regal he was our guest right here on bloomberg markets i think people are meeting overestimating how much they really prompting prompted their overestimating do how much impact tadic by will have on the overall growth we still think two and a half to three percent growth is reasonable and i help think that will cause an overheating if you will of the if you at the comment the ten year old five thirtyseconds the yield two point four five percent goal down twotenths of one percent to thirteen fifteen the ounce west texas intermediate crude up two point three percent to sixty one seventy eight a barrel natural gas lower by two percent intel confirming a report saying it's chips contained a feature that makes them vulnerable to hacking though it says other companies semiconductors are also susceptible intel today down by three point four percent so again recapping records on wall street with the s p up seventeen to twenty seven thirteen up sixtenths of 1 percent the dow up ninetyeight up four tenths of one percent nasdaq up fifty eight up eighttenths of 1 percent i'm charlie pellett and that's a bloomberg business flash overall more through very remote bailey london lead mood like hey you had never seen anyone that that fast people who love you've gotta purposes of the twelve new was in shakers the cost a little more name gregory.

jeffrey cleveland chief economist tadic natural gas intel dow nasdaq charlie pellett bloomberg texas one percent 1 percent three percent five thirtyseconds four five percent four percent two percent ten year
"jeffrey cleveland" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

02:16 min | 3 years ago

"jeffrey cleveland" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"It is cancelling all departures thursday from boston's logan airport so certainly we'll be hearing from other carriers as the day progresses for right now major flight cancellations from american airlines as it tries to get her that the storm that is heading for the east coast of the united states on thursday us stocks advancing the dow the sp nasdaq all of records right now with the s p up thirteen up five tenths of one percent the dow up fifty seven up two tenths of one percent nasdaq up fifty a gain their of seven tenths of one percent tenure up one 30second with a yield of two point four six percent gold is down seven tenths of one percent thirteen '09 the ounce we've got west texas intermediate crude advancing two percent sixty one fifty eight for a barrel of wti i i'm charlie pellett and that's a bloomberg business flash i challenge thank you so much charlie pellett bloomberg business news flash you are listening to bloomberg markets on this wednesday carol massar along with pimm fox and this is bloomberg hmm three oh yes jeffrey cleveland chief economist payton and regal joining us from los angeles san of course he can be followed on twitter team cleveland are a team cleveland he got a chance to look at the fomc minutes anything stand out to you i think the other dory is being about inflation pm and weather policymakers are concerned about about him to be go away rate hike but that i don't think that appears to be the case i think we're going to gradual case rate hikes continue into 2018 adding four for the year so one per quarter makes makes perfect sense so the they did talk about the inflation story but i don't think there's enough there to uh to to change that view i have to tell you go brain dead i know we have to talk about the fat and what they're gonna do but i mean they thin so clear about being transparent and making sure that they won't shock investors not shocked the markets not shocked.

cleveland twitter los angeles san payton chief economist jeffrey cleveland bloomberg texas boston pimm fox carol massar charlie pellett nasdaq dow united states logan airport one percent four six percent one 30second two percent
"jeffrey cleveland" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

01:45 min | 3 years ago

"jeffrey cleveland" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Weakened longer maturity debt rose and us stocks lingered near record highs after minutes on the last federal reserve meeting showed some policymakers were on the fence when it comes to further interest rate increases several fed officials said their decision on whether to raise rates this year would depend importantly on whether the economic data in coming months increase their confidence on inflation rising toward their two percent target for more on the fomc minutes released today jeffrey cleveland chief economist at paid and regal discuss that and the current economic outlook with carol massar and cory johnson on bloomberg radio to give me your thoughts and he's headline have well i think page nine of the fomc minutes i think did go through them high did this quickly as i could i think you know there's this debate carol over inflation and inflation is below the two percent target part of me thinks that's not that much of a mystery we've actually been at two percent encore pc e uh by twenty percent at two percent or above two percent i should say twenty percent of the time the last two decades so bean below two percent it's not that unusual okay so i think that's important for for investors to think about but in the minutes the wrestle with this idea of by inflation is low and i think on page nine they say you know many participants still think that the fact that the labor market is tighter at the economies more at full capacity to that will bring inflation over the medium term that so that they're still sticking to that view which i think is important for for the mark to think about it is interesting though i do feel like what's gaining momentum jeffrey is this idea that with the fed officials too said contend low inflation had only transitory and i feel we are getting some momentum that maybe this is just the.

chief economist carol massar cory johnson labor market fed jeffrey cleveland bloomberg two percent twenty percent two decades
"jeffrey cleveland" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

01:45 min | 3 years ago

"jeffrey cleveland" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Weakened longer maturity debt rose and us stocks lingered near record highs after minutes on the last federal reserve meeting showed some policymakers were on the fence when it comes to further interest rate increases several fed officials said their decision on whether to raise rates this year would depend importantly on whether the economic data in coming months increase their confidence on inflation rising toward their two percent target for more on the fomc minutes released today jeffrey cleveland chief economist at payton and regal discuss that and the current economic outlook with carol massar and cory johnson on bloomberg radio to give me your thoughts on these headline well i think page nine of the fomc minutes after you did go through them high did this quickly as i could i think there's this debate carol over inflation and inflation is below the two percent target part of me thinks that's not that much of a mystery we've actually been at two percent encore p c e e on about twenty percent at two percent or above two percent i should say twenty percent of the time the last two decades so bean below two percent it's not that unusual okay so i think that's important for for investors to think about but in the minutes the wrestle with this idea of by inflation is low and i think on page nine they say you know many participants still think that the fact that the labor market is tighter the economies more at full capacity to that will bring inflation over the medium term so that they're still sticking to that view which i think is important for for the market to think about it is interesting i do feel like let's gaining momentum on jeffrey is this idea that with the fed officials too said contend low inflation not only transitory and i feel we are getting some momentum that maybe this is just the.

chief economist payton carol massar cory johnson labor market fed jeffrey cleveland bloomberg two percent twenty percent two decades
"jeffrey cleveland" Discussed on KBNP AM 1410

KBNP AM 1410

02:03 min | 4 years ago

"jeffrey cleveland" Discussed on KBNP AM 1410

"Miller on the right for his aim ben covering the sp and of course he'll be speaking tito masud mappi snb a little bit later on this morning and we look forward to hearing the fruits of that conversation nike keeping his eye on that the japanese the lab which is why we took them back to expand guy yep easily based in berlin plenty of time in frankfurt's and a little time in this parliament allow point country could as switzerland coach he's mad when you have the opportunity let's talk about the other big story the which discussing judge yellen is pressing ahead with plans to normalize monetary policy this is the best said the ongoing strength of the labor market will ultimately prevail over recent weakness in inflation eat the folks who work at some point speaking of the raising interest rates for a second time this year the central bank cia played down a recent softening of price pressures of what's confidence that the it is on track to its two percent inflation go our decision to make gradual reduction in the amount of policy confrontation reflects the progress he economies made and is expected to make maximum employment and price stability objectives is to us by law what to an extent studio jeffrey cleveland chief economist at payton investment council good morning you think the fed is hawkish i thought the the market chatter the the whisper across the market from investors going into the meeting day was that we were going to get a twenty five basis point rate hike but it would be dovish was acknowledged the week the the the you mentioned in inflation and the market pricing in over the next eighteen months just to rate hikes i think before yesterday's rate hike and the fed had been sending a very different message so after the meeting all set has done uh the the fed maintained its intent to hike another time this year and three times next year so just on that alone i think that's a more hawkish hawkish message than investors were and we were in line with that we could see the tele rebound just a little bit eight at full in already calls on the back of the inflation of it but it did bounce little bit on the on the statement i mean it she is janet yellen.

Miller nike frankfurt labor market interest rates cia chief economist fed janet yellen tito berlin switzerland central bank jeffrey cleveland payton investment council eighteen months two percent
"jeffrey cleveland" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

01:55 min | 4 years ago

"jeffrey cleveland" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Keeping impact not miller thank thanks matt miller on the right for his in then covering the sp and of course he'll be speaking tito masud map the snb a little bit later on this morning and we look forward to hearing the fruits of that conversation egg keeping his eye on the jenin east lab which is why we took them that don't spend guy yep easily based in berlin plenty of time in frankfurt a and a little time in the swollen allow point country that is swiftlet thirtyseven you have the opportunity let's talk about the other big story the wits discussing judge yell and is pressing ahead with plans to normalize monetary policy this is the best of the ongoing strength of the labor market will ultimately prevail over recent weakness in inflation i eat the phillips curve will work at some point speaking of the raising interest rates for a second time this year the central bank cia played down recent softening of price per russia's voiced confidence that the fed is attracted two percent inflation dope decision to make another gradual reduction in the amount of policy of confrontation reflects the progress the economies made analysts expected to make toward maximum employment in price stability objectives is soaring to us by law turning sound studio jeffrey cleveland chief economist at investment council good morning you think the fed is hawkish yeah i thought the the market shatter the the whisper across market from investors going into the meeting day was that we were going to get a twenty five basis point rate hike but it would be dovish they will acknowledge the weakness the the the you mentioned in inflation and the market pricing in over the next eighteen months just to rate hikes i think before yesterday's rate hike and the fed had been sending a very different message so after the meeting all said it's done uh the the fed maintain and its intent to hike and other time this year and and threetimes next year so just on that alone i think that's a more hawkish qaqish message.

frankfurt labor market interest rates cia russia fed chief economist matt miller jenin berlin central bank jeffrey cleveland eighteen months two percent