5 Burst results for "Jay Swinson"
"jay swinson" Discussed on LBC Election 2019
"Tape. Nan Disgrace Watts off. Arcade the say I truth own landscape mccloskey shots up a to. I mean the mayor of the man right is that he has. Don't let's not forget when j Jeremy Kuban was first elected as leader and he did that dreadful thing when he went into that hub with all his white male supporters doing clenched fist salutes and lend mccloskey was one of the first people there alongside him right. He's dipped his homes in this well and truly he's responsible actually pathetically he was dumping Jeremy Corbyn yesterday some of the things that he was saying. You know what you mean criticism Jerry. You Komo you've got no principles mate right. You are responsible for this as much as others so you need to go however what I was going to say more positively is uniquely dislike. Tim Roach alike. Dave Prentice Unison. Tim Ratchet and the GM be lead to think very very carefully about what they want out of the future leader of the Labour Party. Because there ain't no way that Jeremy Corbyn was going to do the right thing by their members and they you know is only a mainstream winning Labor party that can help you know at the trade union members and the people from whom the Labor Party originally grew and then of course. You've got the membership there. I do agree with you that I suspect that there is still You know a large number of members who are sympathetic. 'cause they came into the Labor Party Support Jeremy Corbyn and they've stayed because of that but that is a third of the Electoral College So who you GONNA back. I haven't coin made up my mind yet. I don't think it's possible for it to be somebody who was part of the Corbin project. Frankly I think that was has just failed too much and therefore I did. I did have quite a half still got a lot of time for Angelina but I think she was too closely associated not probably without project and she though she was she bravely took them on at various different times I was not impressed with the education. A manifesto that we went into the election with I think the getting rid of off stead was just a classic mistake. The seat at the grounds on education standards immediately immediately to the Tories and they played it back this time and time again. So I'm not sure about that. I am I thought was a classic facet kind of policy that would attract no new voters would re it would reinforce lefty beardie teachers but they were gonNA vote Labour anyway. And you didn't need to to do that actually so I agree with you. I what I saw that policy. I thought you absolute idiots. Yeah we were pushed so hard. You Know Nineteen ninety-seven to say that we were going to get rid of all stead and you know Tony Blair David Blunkett were absolutely resisted that completely rightly because it is whatever you thinking. I've been on receiving end of Nostra inspection. You don't inspect improvement into a system. Everybody knows that there were all sorts of problems with it but it is symbolic of you not wanting to put the education system under scrutiny and to aspire to high standards if you get rid of if you get rid of anyway I I actually think as I said earlier that somebody lightly Synon- D is really interesting and I you know I will look very carefully athlete. Can I say something about her. which you're not gonna like in the I think that she she is interesting? I thought thaw nuancing on Brexit on the various veep Reagan's that she was always on was highly unconvincing. NAM afraid she suffers the same issue. It's J. Swinson suffered in some ways in that. She's a forty year old woman. who kind of looks like a sex former and I know now you can jump down my throat but I we? We shouldn't judge people on how they look but people do and being prime minister you have to have the personal gravitas. And I'm afraid we got a prime minister. That looks like a scruffy naughty schoolboy of say well maybe maybe that does undermine my my argument to an extent. I'll I'll I'll give you that but again it's not me I I I like Lisa Nandy and I do respect her but I do think that sometimes you do have to kind of look the part and that's easier for amounted t than it is for a woman. Sometimes we have thirty four year old Social Democrat Prime Minister in Finland. Now woman who But there is a con. Maybe I'm not articulation articulate scandinavians or in now I really know. There's just no I tell you know. I just think there's something that she needs to do to a pair a bit more sort of substantial. Yeah but let's not forget. Tony Blair used to be called Bambi. You can grow intrude into role but I was coming to. Just fill it because you know. Let's not be under any doubt. The charisma and the breakthrough personality not to be leader of the Labor Party would be just minutes and I think it will be very interesting if she goes for it and she may well get my support. I haven't quite decided yet. Can't I love just Phillips. I think she's absolutely wonderful as as a human being as a character Boris Johnson would know would know no how to deal with someone like just phillips whereas he would easily deal with kissed Armagh. Here's easily deal with thornberry Angela. Very not so much. Rebecca Long Bailey. He would and I and you see that has to form part of the decision because he is going to be the toy leader unless something scandal something which you can't rule out with him but ah I mean in any in any normal world. He will be prime minister for the next five years so any sensible opposition should be picking a leader. The the prime minister will find incredibly difficult to deal with is just fill it strongest seat. Her weakest seat is that she's seen as not a team player. She she seen as highly emotional and unstable and We don't really know apart from on view social. Yeah she's we don't really quite sure what she believes in say I think she's got quite a uphill struggle in many ways she will. I think the the right of the Labor Party let people see her as one of them that that's a disadvantage in in some ways But I mean boy would she make it fun. I agree with all of those things and on and if you live if you live in the North West you may want to buy your tickets to all talk with just Phillips on Saturday January at the lowry theatre in Manchester excellent that might part leadership come. They might be on the Friday night. Jay Swinson so that might be interesting one team where she combat her so we we can say. Can we say something about her. Yes so I also felt quite moved when she lost her seat. Jane Merrick tweeted yesterday. About Jo Swinson. That actually she felt a you know. Give her Ju. She made some mistakes but she was brave rave and she bought she brought considerable energy to leading the liptons. I agree with all of our and incidentally I fought that her speech each count was the only one of the leaders that showed any sort of statesman like holy unimpressed by Boris. Johnson's and Jeremy Armie Corbin's Speeches I didn't think that they had anything like the Gravitas of a leader. The that was needed I thought she did. She's done exactly what Jeremy Corbyn Open isn't doing she's shown contrition she's taken responsibility. She stood down and good on her and I feel really sorry. The sort of young lively. The woman has not been able to make a success in politics in the way in which I would have wanted to do but I think she should leave with our health high. I've always have a huge amount of time for Jo Swinson and I think Joe a big mistake was nothing to do with what she does lead to her. Big Mistake was not running against Vince. Cable in two thousand seventeen because is she. She didn't have enough time leader to make her mark when she did make market was in entirely the wrong way. The other mistake. Well there were two other mistakes revoking taking article fifty which at the time you could see the logic for it but that went down like a cup of cold sake particularly among some Lib Dem voters secondly Now I forgot what can say the the whole Jo Swinson is the next prime minister thing absolutely ludicrous and I should have been somebody somebody in the lift and campaign team put their hands up and said no no this this this will not go down well and they stuck with that for too long. I'm afraid don't buy board game. He was having a scratch of his era. That oversees aroused aroused. I can't get my leg grandma ear on lock use. Yes yes I do yoga for no good reason. Can I give a shoutout to captain fantastic yoga teacher. WHO AT ABOU now? I think it was half twelve. One o'clock on Friday morning sent me a direct message. Flesser saying this must be something like this must be really difficult for you keep breathing. That's a very interesting thing that she said because again people have a non party political persuasion Why really get that but there will be people who felt absolutely as if their lives had come to an end? I'm not talking about. MP's here who lost. I'm talking about ordinary voters. who had put so much on Jeremy Armie cool bidden? They felt that they in a way they were about to enter a state of clinical depression. Some of the May well have done I. I remember back in one thousand nine hundred ninety two a friend of mine sent me a counterpane attacks because we didn't really have mobile all phones in those days probably age a message or something. I'm not quite sure what it was. all a letter. Who knows we used to anyway? I was told that he had committed suicide. Because of the election results are nothing. Oh my God and I really have no reason to disbelieve it and then I took office. It became a joke and I was thinking. How can you even joke about something like that? I mean I was absolutely appalled but yeah that's Aquarius. They say it t's true avert whether the candidates we were talking about previously. or Or. You're right you know voters or people who've really put a lot into it. There is a grieving. Don't mm forget. There is a grieving process to go through here. And you need to take a bit of time and just recognize that it is a very significant thing to you and you know be kind to self and think about how you an also and I know this is gonNA sound a little bit trite but treated is an opportunity in your life rather than a threat and nobody will think about it in those terms two days after election that they've lost but I mean there are other things in life other than politics which you and I probably thought weren't but there are and they will give they won't give you the same thrill. Oh boss how's the baby politics has but it's a different kind of Thriller Buzz and I. I understand why people will be incredibly depressed. It what's happened to them but that there are things out there if you can find the right things and what you don't want to be is one of these sad. Xm appeased that loiter around the House of Commons. Allot like almost ghosts. An and I mean there's one one toy MP. I said this will now on Thursday the ten years after he lost his seat was still using. How succumbing stationary? Just cross out the Portcullis at the top and I thought may come on move on. Yes I think that's absolutely I and let's not forget I am a my family may disagree with this I am. I'm a much better. Mother daughter sister friend now than I was when I was an MP set neither was when I was a minister. Yeah I've got a much broader range of interest not broad enough but a a much broader range of interests and there is and also you know it's not that you can't make a difference outside parliament. I do jobs now. Both paid and full entry. The I think make a different. It's not like being the home secretary but it is still possible to have an impact so you know. Remember those things. Good.
"jay swinson" Discussed on LBC Election 2019
"I wonder if Jeremy Kobe will keep sticking to this line that nobody apart from the top five percent going to pay tax because it's simply not true the the abolition as a woman pointed out on the question of the abolition of the marriage allowance. Now that that is income tax that is being reduced for people who are paying the normal rate. So I'm not I don't know I just feel that. They bitten off more than they can chew here. Not just in the number of things that they've announced but the fact that a lot of people people will look at this and say well I might quite like some of these policies overall. It's unaffordable. We don't believe it. It is as Boris restaurants and said the other day of money forest in the end some coined I coined that bloody expression did Ni- I remember from this. podcast saying it's it's not just a much about the tours. It's not just the magic money tree. It's a magic money forest. Do you think he listens. We put he does actually hollow. Boris Boris Hi. Sorry Mister Johnson. Prime Minister Remember me. But your point you know I sort of was vaguely conceding. Your point was which is people like a lot of stuff that is in Labour's manifesto but Labour has always had this problem about as always had this problem about economic credibility and Gordon Brown on and Tony Blair worked their backsides off before nine hundred ninety seven to try to overcome and there was a really interesting piece that somebody tweet from a booklet. Deborah Madison written about doing some focus group work. I think it was before nineteen ninety-seven around some Tax Proposals that Gordon had made which actually genuinely were only going to impact on the very highest paid and actually what people felt when when they heard about the. Moore's that's going to impact on me and it also says something about aspiration because actually even if I'm not don't even if I don't think I'm going GONNA pay it. I nevertheless feel nervous about the fact that it's being levied. Now you know people like me who are by instinct in in favor of government spending and taxation still need to understand the ego win these arguments if you're going to be in a position to this manifesto into operation and I'm slightly worried for Labor. The everybody's sort of thinks this thinks this election is one. It's thinks this election is one origin. Brian People are going. This is a fantastic manifesto. It's going to transform the country. It's GonNa do this. It's going to be the most radical change we've ever seen only if we win the flipping election guys. That's the problem and people feeling just like there is some people. Don't think we lost into a D seventeen. There's some people already think we've one now and it's worrying Lori. Do They not look at opinion polls is right to be skeptical holes but they will say the same thing but they say people would say with some reason Things like politics has changed. I you can't measure things in the traditional which you remember when we did the election program and I had the argument. I think it was shabby who I actually like. Law and I was banging on about Econo- general election than you unless you can win. Place the NEAT. She was going. Jackie you don't understand. The politics has changed. We winning seats down in you. You know on the South Coast etc and I think people genuinely think and there are certain reasons thinking this but not enough. That things is aren't like they used to be and therefore you can't use old measures in order to determine how maybe they're all going to copy jayme smells also. Have you seen this. James Mills is former communications for Joma Tomo former Corbin adviser now himself up as a political pundit. He Chris Doing Matt Ford's podcast on Wednesday or Thursday and during that podcast. He said that when he was sixteen you know seventeen years old. He voted illegally for his brother. Basic impersonated his brother under the encouragement of his father. First of all you you bloody fool. You've just admitted all these committed a criminal offence. COOL CISCO PEG bike DOE folks as you as you would imagine so so unless the Labor Party is going to don't in mass impersonation I'm I I don't see where these are coming from. An unless as you say this disaster in the Tory campaign unless they pull some rabbit out of the hat now you could argue. Well they they. They know they can't win the election but they still think that Corbin can become prime minister if he gets gets to two hundred and seventy seats with the support of the now the more possibility I suppose but even then I just don't I just can't see the the mass working on being a bit more careful because in I in two thousand seventeen. I was very skeptical about Labor. Either I thought that was gonNA be a big Tory majority and I was obviously completely wrong about that. So I try to not Completely be I mean. I'm not even a try not to be too to play down neighbors chances too much watch because I made that mistake last time so I think I'm real and I'm not predicting a landslide. Tory victory although having having said that I can see the circumstances where it could come about by landslide talking. Oh boy is a landslide. Nowadays over three figures or fifty fifty or walk. Well I think it has to be over. Three figures does need to be a landslide. Allah nine hundred ninety seven fifty majora fifty seat majority not for the Tories would be comfortable. Extremely comfortable territory. Wouldn't it. It would also transform British politics. Wouldn't it because they would be governor opening for the next five years and I'm not sure what the effects that would be in terms of effects on the other parties you look at the Little Liberal Democrat position which if anything has gone backwards from when we last spoke to Jason and the question time debate in a moment but you can now see circumstances consensus whether the Democrats might make hardly any gains at all if that happened. Is She safe and we quest question later on about which which party leaders will resign on some of the thirty th that. Let's leave that one till then. The brexit policy lost their manifesto calling it the contract. Which I'm sure didn't newt? Gingrich do something like that when he was speaker in the House of Representatives tapes. I think William Hague had something very similar to so that well. I'm not sure I see. The point of almost seems to be something where we know. We've got to do something we've got to have a press event so we'll really something but we can't be asked but this this this is seeing the there's an interesting so prior question here's what is the point of a manifesto. Well of course it's to spell out your program to get publicity but it's also because it's a program for government so there is an argument for smaller parties. Who Basically got one big argument? which is the BREXIT party? You know they don't really need to have a policy on You know childcare or on Foreign policy or own and you know the details of what you're going to do in various different departments it to the extent that the Labour manifesto has. Because ain't ever going to be put in this program. Graham into government. Civil servants aren't going to be pouring over it and thinking. How am I going to translate this so they might as well just you know? Just go with the key a key points. Although I was a bit surprised that they spent so much time and there was such an emphasis on planting trees which all of a sudden Niger Farraj decided. He's like the tree planting man so he has some of green credentials so he's seeking some green credentials. Aren't we all. Let's move onto. We talked about the TV debate mid week. podcast so let's talk about the question time time so. Who will debate? It wasn't a debate because they all on one after the other each got half an hour. What did you make of it? I thought it was much more entertaining. I have to say than the head to head head although actually I have to confess. I didn't watch it. I have listened to it whilst I'm walking the dogs and doing various other things today so I don't know if I missed anything but I thought there was much more audience engagement. I thought there was some of those questions that did put all of the leaders on the on the defensive and sort of challenged them. That was good. I thought Fiona Bruce did a good job and most significantly. I for Labor organizes did a bloody brilliant job of getting people into that Audience Jeremy Corbett at a much response to anybody else montage. You said that because I was beginning to think I was living in a parallel universe. But right from the off you could tell that there were far more Labor people there now. Clearly there were tores but apparently they've told they said afterwards that they did it proportionate to the seats in the House of Commons so so that would explain why there were virtually no Liberal Democrats in the audience or if they were they didn't mean the cells nine but I think in in any in any audience since Labor people tend to make themselves known by clapping and hollering much more than toys do toys much more reserved so it may well have been. That was the requisite number toys. But you wouldn't told that from the problem from the audience from the program by the way do you have any digestive biscuits or anything by your side. What why would I want? I'm trying don't shoutout to Michael to get you some biscuits. Because we've been a challenge inch right. Michael can get a biscuit at Sochi skill. Something Oh sit terrible how I know what that means is if you know what that means thank gluco right anyway. We we had to interrupt. Because Jackie's he's Internet went down so we can't actually remember what we were talking about but it was something to do with the question. Time debate you were saying that you thought it was rather good. I thought it was appalling. I hated hated. Every minute of it I just I you don't get anything from that kind of format where the moderator allows the audience to just bareback Ab all the all the while she didn't she didn't Nicholas Sturgeon but certainly with the other three. It was totally out of control to think. Listen I was. I thought she had quite a good grip. Fiona Bruce as I say I was listening to it rather than watching it so I didn't see there were obviously times when people shouting when she had to get control of them. I thought some of the questions were rubbish but I thought some of them were really good. I just seem felt. Don't more lively than that. Rather stilted Corbin Boris Johnson head to head on Tuesday but of course yes I agree with you that one of the provinces they weren't with each other and if choose day had enabled them to challenge each other or if they wanted to challenge lynch other. I think that would have been much more more interesting even than the question time but I was impressed with it and I thought it was better than I imagined it was going to be. What did you make of the fact that it's Bruce Interrupted Jeremy Corbyn Nicholas Surgeon? And who's the other one jason in between eleven and seventeen times and Sharon interrupted. Boris Johnson Forty seven times now on the surface. That's not a good look. It isn't except he. I thought he failed to listen to what she said about. Wanting to get some relatively Sibley short answers in so that lots of people could ask questions but that meant that she interrupted him virtually one and a half times minute. She interrupted him within fifteen seconds of his first answer now known seraing. You can't do that with within fifteen seconds it's just ridiculous killers. He's got this. He did resort at times to this flowery language nonsense and he did try to evade answering answering questions and which anyway did seriously you don't think Corbin tried to evade answering questions. He was more straightforward. Didn't like some some of his own says more straightforward actually than than Boris. Johnson was unless pompous. Well maybe but that's no excuse. I think for something that people can rightfully perceive as being very unfair. If you're going to so I'm just going to interrupt you in. Let's let's not forget the on Tuesday. Juliette Kingdom got a bit of criticism. Four letting Boris Johnson. Continuously go over his time. So I think Fiona Bruce may well thought to myself. Well that ain't happening. Well well I have to say. I know many criticize fellow presenters. But I don't think she covered herself. Glory and these two hours at all the little sized is to the audience. The little commentary bets. That's not her role she is. There is a facilitator not a player. I agree with that there was there. Were a couple apple moments when I did think to myself. You didn't need to say that exactly didn't need to say talk with you about that. So what's next debate. Wise what do we want to see with us a very very good question because on Thursday they're supposed to be a Sky News debate But that hasn't been confirmed yet and I don't think it will be now because they've invited Jay Swinson to tape a partner..
"jay swinson" Discussed on Remainiacs - the Brexit Podcast
"Taylor and indent tomorrow it's the final vote on Johnson's deal and the big people's vote march to it feels very much like this what's with the deal in I've seen some high Larry's Scooby Doo memes in which the mosque of Johnson's deal is taking off in it's just the main deal it's not exactly how soups and a lot of people thought he wasn't even going to get a deal what what do you think he's sort of achieved substantial yeah well first of all you gotta deal which I think I mean I would I was thinking that was the direction that we were trying if you wanted what exactly I always say once when we cut we've had others as well is it going to be brother who also this is the strategy ten points to was indoor we know I mean I didn't think that any point was necessarily true that he was definitely going for something else it's just the way that it pans out some of the reports suggested that phone call with Mirko paradoxically they lost their shirts over like a week ago paradoxically shifted him into accepting the non we don't we don't know and we don't know whether it was a plan with Louis along however he did is to reopen withdrew greenwhich for long we didn't do lots of US said well they went they wouldn't do it and he has managed to change the box up so that stuff their way of getting around the fact that that was we didn't think was doable with that it hasn't been fact proved dill however that should not cutter us too much to just how much capitulated on the items of the EU has put forward for him and those have quite severe consequences not just for the UK and I think the future constitutional arrangements but also for the strategic incentives of both sides of ornament of this sort of E. R. G. Jihadist types of the more moderate sort of Tories and labour produce guys and did you make any major concessions was it was really on our side concessions if they really made I mean when you take from when the negotiating with May this is pretty much what they wanted I mean they don't really like the customs thing because in some way that is going to involve the e the UK Policing the us border and it is going to be very complicated so they didn't really like that and it's quite hard to think of much else. Vat on sort of a I mean it's hard to think of anything that they really gave in on the fact of with reopening withdrawal agreement they date which Jones said they didn't but then you can't really rely on junkers I'm sure we'll get onto later to be entirely consistent Donald Tusk's to ask farewell to Britain was very touching but it also seemed a little Oh it just it made me crack up again I'm sorry it just always does whenever he says something like that and I have to stop because I guess you too sad at the end of a movie someone like Rick and Casablanca laying on the plane yeah exactly it's just like that but it's worse I've never really been touched by Casablanca volume by donald some would say that given the the sort of length of the deal and the complexity of the house shouldn't be giving people a couple of days to read it and then you know a few hours to pass it or not I mean that just I mean obviously that's sub optimal but kind of inevitable minister real kind of is a real problem with that you think that we're going to be people who are going into the lobbies not really knowing and be on the way it's been spun definitely they will be but I mean there's plenty of MP's listening to surround the no matter how long they have with a long complicated legal document would not have passed read it in a much Francois like a duck with a newspaper right but but ultimately with most of it is the custom stuff is just obscenely complicated and I think very few as we basing it on on the sort of manucher of it what ultimately matters in that document is the the manner of trust that you have in where we go next I and this is so this takes a bit of expanding before when you hit the backstop basically what Theresa may were saying was look you guys you bookstores you've got all this chance to do these arrangements and if you fail to do them the insurance policy kicks in and the reason they hated it because they secretly knew that they were never going to be able to do those arrangements and the insurance product who's going to kick in now the backstop is gone is turned into a front stop the relationship with almond is supposed to be a permanent one there is a consent lock stuff that can happen in Stolman but it's it's thousand as a permanent home now that changes things because this stuff kicks him basically in a few months the transition only goes until the end of next year now on that on that basis once you get there you get another no deal cliff edge it's not the same as this one it doesn't involve citizen's rights doesn't involve the budget but it still has the affects going you will fall onto WTO rules now on that basis you're going to have you guys looking at it and this is happening right now this is where the meat of of the real issue about tomorrow's happening right now goes looking at engaging what we're pretty sure but Boris Johnson the guy who's going to try and get a majority and we'll just be able to force the WTO any brexit you know in a year and a half because the strategic assessment has changed and when you look at the pudge Tories and when you look at the Labor per dita's they'll be looking at that and thinking action is this a deal or is this defer of the no deal dynamic for about eighteen months at he's also counting on being able to get rid of the up what he wants to do is go of course for a quick generally action in which he will no longer have to depend on the DUP's votes and it shouldn't be underestimated just how much the up dislike this deal I mean a pretty anti do you p academic how is I was reading yesterday was was basically saying he's he's around the up under a bus that may not matter to most people in in the in the rest of Britain but it matters in Northern Ireland will the the breaks it seems to be the kind of your non-tory exiting to be split on this Farraj is like this is he's he's GonNa know dealer bus Disney he's just like oh and they haven't heard he's remaining now yes yes yes I crossed because of the the ruling out the brilliant Ben Act which is you know huge supports some time if this is worth it is worth watching Niger Faraj defend his entire political body inside because the you said something because he's against his interest right imagine if there is an election before deal was passed in other words if this gets rejected and they extended isn't it action then he's got a pretty good causing major damage if adidas pause just fucking Brexit Brexit it's fucking hilarious they when you think about it the idea that that brexit party literally called the Brexit party wants to kind of likes Brexit in order to serve the electoral interests of the BREXIT party like hey means necessary dot e you took a break from racist bands to actually back the deal and so presumably this is with banks is our power banks is endorsement and so that's the first time they've fallen out with Farraj or that recently because they seem to have come around to I suppose what we were saying a long time ago was the if you were the Utah e you ever I'm thank God they didn't behave like this but we were saying well you just get it done right I mean not terrible phrase you get something passed get brexit to be seen to have happened and actually of course the reason that it fouls because of the kind of hard line breaks there's going no this kind so is this like an outbreak who've of just pragmatism from are you yeah I think it is basically and also I think they're taking their cue from Cummings it's interesting hearing the things about cummings jesting that that Boris Johnson not being quite so much enthralled to cummings over re route past couple of weeks thinking that he's gone a bit too far with his rhetoric but on the other hand that name you will just be machiavellian bullshit and Cummings may deliberately of seemed to go too far in order that he could seem Boris seemed to be in charge. Yeah I I think they they ultimately think that this is as much as they can reasonably get away with the time available now and they want cummings wants to get out of Downing Street by Thirty Stober so he can have his mysterious operation so it's important that he gets it done his soul I think he needs to have his skull expanded to accommodate his because it's very tight I would show go full me but of course that brings us to the we one of the problems where we were saved before we were saved by the by the G. Spartans and now the number and the debate and the reason the numbers that dicey now is a lot both sponsor too stupid nine now the wanker again I came as pragmatic for the actually probably we but not for brexit again and so those numbers suddenly get very kind of shaky then there's all kinds of trouble on the among the the labor pro dealers and it just needs to change each day in could you give us a quick assessment of of where the numbers are UNHU seems likely to go for it of of those grave and so I would expect identify which way it's going to go I genuinely think this knife-edge and fifty fifty and in fact we're pretty much better market suggests that I would be surprised if it was even a double digit margin of victory for either side so you go four key groups the Boris Johnson will be looking forward so he's gone I said I say E. R. J. D. U. P. Pudge torries labour pro dealers so he lost the DP and that I mean without that we would not be fucked like this would be a very different emergency podcast because there will be no hope whatsoever but he lost the d so that takes the ten votes but more importantly it offers a political cover now we thought that would have more effect than actually has done an actual fact I mean we're more energy guys ghosts in a bunch of Tories and now draws dem's or others like I'm dominic grieve obviously vote against against the sting others are more on some definitely will vote for it so Nicholas Soames for instance said I would always good for do the Labor MP's ostrich we think probably about seven the moment would go for it even K. is questionable because heck often goes with the DP so we would see again to the psychology of the labor pro dealers it seems to me a multi role here is basically to be confused man in the street with simply mystic readings of situations that you then kate is that there is absolutely no incentive because if you want to be one of a handful of labor MP's that gets it over because of the line you are hated within your party but the story the top line Jay Swinson will of course Lebron is that Labor MP's go over the line so also you really hurt your party and also you've allowed Boris Johnson celebrate a major victory and if he then goes into the.
"jay swinson" Discussed on Monocle 24: The Briefing
"Panel which today is lance price political commentator tatum former director of communications for u._k. Prime minister tony blair antares destiny the author and journalist <hes> we will start he in the u._k. Which is now close enough to brexit seventy seven days that some of its politicians appear to have apprehended the fact that crashing out of the e._u. With no deal is what will happen on october thirty first unless someone does something to stop it jeremy corbyn the leader of the opposition whose opposition to brexit has been of than full-throated these last few years has suggested so flawlessly that m._p.'s opposing no deal unite to vote no confidence in prime minister boris johnson and install corbin as caretaker prime minister until an election and possibly another referendum can be held. He is some of what jeremy corbyn had to say. I hope they will all support the motion of confidence that i will put and that will ensure that this government then cannot continue with this headlong pursuit of an ideal brexit and that would mean a caretaker government led by labor uh-huh which would be a government in order to prevent a no deal brexit and bring about a general election so the people of this country can decide their future lance first of all in this prospect going to go anywhere the prospect of corbin lead a caretaker government propped up obviously and i'm not sure off the top from my head what the math saw but he would need some nano deal tories on board. You would think the liberal democrats the s._n._p. And so forth yeah it's not going to happen. It's fairly party politics. I think everybody at the moment is playing politics with this proposal. It's not a particularly unwise wise thing for him to have suggested because the opposition convention suggests that in the event of an of a of a no confidence vote the leader of the opposition should be the first person that but returned to have the first opportunity to form a government the problem with it is that if there were to be a no confidence vote and there will be no confidence vote and and <hes> the majority of m._p.'s all m._p.'s knew that the consequence of voting confidence in the government was to have jeremy corbyn prime minister then the chances of that vote going through through parliament would be substantially reduced so that's the reason why it ain't going to happen and but <hes> i think jeremy corbyn has it quite successfully put the ball into his opponents call because he's now saying to the liberal democrats into the people who've left the labor party into the other independence into the circle rebel conservatives that if they're serious about rocking no deal than it should be without preconditions and putting down precondition that jeremy corbyn shouldn't be the caretaker. <hes> prime minister suggested their first priority is not stopping new deal <hes> terry i if if at some point in the next seventy seven days <hes> some were other the senior politician will cease to actual <hes> flush of country before party and let's say that was jeremy corbyn supposing he acknowledged this proposal isn't going to happen all the reasons that land suggested which basically boiled down to the fact that you know a lot of people don't jeremy corbyn very much what if he refurbish this proposal with a genuinely selfless offer to step aside in favor of a list of icy figurehead if one could be agreed upon does it then have any legs or are we indulging in ever further fantastical michael fantasy politics here. I think there is certainly an element of fancy politics in all of this. I mean we've seen lots of other names that have been floated today not least by i'm jay swinson. The new leader of the liberal democrats talking about possibly conservative..
"jay swinson" Discussed on The Guardian UK: Politics Weekly
"Again as I say we've turned it on ourselves to try and have you know yet another another civil wars of what we do and who is the represents us which is frankly ludicrous kitchens it feel it Labor on the pitch at all in the last few weeks in terms of challenging being stuff that has been saying I mean for my spat diverting Labor every more focused on attacking Jay Swinson interesting strategy though potentially yeah exactly yeah I mean covering both the lead ship launches said the buffer announced on the same week Jason earlier in the week and then Boris Johnson and I was really struck by the the fact that Labour politicians I suppose Jeremy coupons outright is on twitter seemed to spending more time I mean he looked to the comments they were going after neoliberal WPRO GENTA enabling start an Tori and he thought that would be Johnson is actually Jason. They were describing. I think that having some attacks tax embarrassed jumps in but it seems to me that the and perhaps as some no chicken this because I think there was some Labor voters who are never going to support Boris Johnson and ultimately burst Johnson pitch is to go and win back brexit participators. I I think the priority is to reunite that leave and then try and get back to some centrist domestic policies that for agenda so perhaps that's why they feel less of a need to go in the TAC boroughs Johnson but the main attack on-scene flavor all loop dams and clearly because they see that as a Frat in terms of their pro e e membership. Let's not just that is it. Is I mean you're absolutely right. I agree with you very much but it's deep in the D._N._A.. Of the Labor left to attack the people closest to it the people they really hate in politics are other factions of the Labor Party and the Liberal Democrats who who contend who contend for the the liberal left vote across the country and they hate them. The tour is in a way not cabal and they've got this ridiculous idea in my opinion but some our other because Boris Johnson is they can stick the right wing same old Tories label on him that somehow or other this will I will overcome all German Corbin's huge electoral problems on the night. There's a lots and lots of good serious well-grounded reasons reasons for thinking that Labor could do quite badly in the next general election and I think that in a way also you know the refusal to face that is part part of the reason that they get into you know that sort of default comfort mode of attacking traitors and liberals who are really touris- which they aren't but I also think it is quite interesting in terms of whether thinking with Alabama's because so I'll have been straighten and they've started much earlier than they ever said they were going to the selection and if the next M._p.. For streto earlier than the other seats within which had those vacancies and is that fair of the Democrats think because when you look at how well lab where Labor did well in two thousand Seventeen Election A._T._C. and all of those kind of very metropolitan areas that are very very pro remain they talk about the increase vote share but that was very concentrated input in big cities it was just more people in Islington voting for US rather than the broad sweep across which is why despite in some Labor Party circles and contrary to popular. We didn't win eight. Is that fair that I think that they know that even that part of the vote share will start to be heated up and then if Jeremy Loses is another election is certainly not guaranteed anymore that he would go in the kind of normal conventions of that but it does make his position much less tenable. If it is a situation I should wear. They can't even say their vote. Share that Gore has increased rather than just the number of seats so I totally agree that the Lib dem's or who they're going for K.. Thankful we'll be back after this breath this week the P._M.. Traveled to northern on talk with the five main parties about about the country's future after two and a half years without a government after a breakdown in the power sharing between the deep Tim Fain Johnson has chosen this moment to step in and bring the not parties to the table so why extensively Katie might be going to Belfast talking about power-sharing Behi- On Force Johnson's agenda is or who is that no actually that high and is it. Is it mainly to go there and talk about breakfast dating. You're going to have a prime minister. He takes it takes a hands back stance. Some weather is to restore power-sharing Stormont clearly something everyone will want today. I think Boris Johnson it would be incredibly helpful to his brexit strategy. If Stormont could be restored and there was power-sharing when we interviewed Bros Johnson for the spectator during the Tory leadership campaign he spoke about the various ways tried I to mitigate a plan of Halford no deal brexit at among the four things was restoring power sharing. I also think it's important to the birth Johnson strategy achieve for actually getting a brexit deal because if you look Habra shrimps and talks about the backstroke he repeatedly calls it undemocratic Ni- one potential henshaw responsible. If you saying is undemocratic why not let the party's Stormont the parties in Northern Ireland have a say over what will is in the backstop how they want to use it now. You can't make the argument if there is no power-sharing Stormont so if you were able to get up I think that that would provide provide a route to potentially solving the backstop permanent Muslim. We've seen a bit of a tour of the K. by Boris Johnson but we haven't seen him would seem to any plans at all to go to around the rest of the E._U.. And speak to you leaders and has taken him six days There is nothing going on but in the end the irresistible force is going to hit an immovable object and at some point down the line is going to be have to be some discussion Russian involving the new prime minister which which addresses the question of the backstop the idea that the Stormont assembly could somehow cut cut through all this is I think just for the birds piece for example while they could say it is <hes> and tell people that it is but I mean situation in Northern Ireland's got worse. The two sides are pretty implacably opposed to each other. Everything still zero-sum game so the idea that that somehow this could really be democratically endorsed backstop when the majority of opinion in Northern Ireland is opposed to Hiwa dangerous. This game is being played here. Do you think that Mary Marilyn McDonald's should this latest comments that particular no deal base it would mean the circumstances are fundamentally changed enough enough to mean. There should be a border poll cheating. That's that's the right assessment. I think that is quite provocative at the moment but I think it's awesome that Dublin seems to adopt does not want that at all and I mean Fain. Remember is in a relatively weak position in terms of Irish public opinion over the last twenty years didn't it didn't do very well in the European elections in the republic because it's moved on from the Gerry Adams Martin McGuinness generation which got a lot of ethnic solidarity not if you like your parties and solidarity because of what was going on in in Northern Ireland during the troubles it's a bit more difficult for Champagne to establish its unique selling point now except as the party that won't give in to the U._p.. which because it won't be that burst Johnson's really got any kind of strategy around Northern Ireland and the border? He says he's going full tilt for no deal and he also poses. They'll never be border infrastructure. Is there really any kind of coherent plan. No I think I think the thing that is truly scary is just how brazen the consecutive posse of been with peace in Northern Ireland island sharing. This kind of idea of no deal was if there were no consequences to this whatsoever and you know the idea that Boris Yeltsin cools that on democratic take when he was an elected prime minister by the people of this country whose by just over one hundred thousand people there was nothing juryman referendum campaign that said don't worry the billions of pounds that we're GONNA save in the millions that you're gonNA spend on the N._H._S.. You know that was on the side of the boss isn't actually going to frontline services where you think it will be. It'll be stockpiling medicines point fridges because otherwise we skip we're going to run out of them and I think we have moved so far now. From the regional mandate that was given in terms of the reality of what is he's. I think the idea that saying just the buck stops on democratic is is slightly farcical and I think that's why at some point feels that we kind of go around and kind you've gone we will have how many times have you said it feels that something has to move at some point and someone has to start being honest with the reality of the situation but I just don't know how we get. I and I think if you're looking to any level of democracy back into this I think the only way to do it is through a second referendum with a genuine understanding of what we reality of the situation could be but it's still even seeing how that gets through any form of kind of parliamentary arithmetic seems almost impossible current may but yet the idea that he has any kind of real concern for what's happening putting in Orland just can't be true when he will talk so brazenly about no deal knowing the consequences kid so much we're seeing so much ramping up of so-called no deal preparations nations an extra two billion and a hundred million advertising is really just to try and persuade Brussels that the U._k.. Is Serious about no deal. Who is it something that Bruce Johnson is prepared to see through but Bustros is still very keen to insist that the number one in a million chance chance chance of Nadia but you look Michael Govan his comments and he is effectively in charge not preparations and he's suggesting is neither assumed outcome so Boris Johnson genuinely believes that by preparing for no deal? You don't get an ideal. I think those around him a probably more aware that you pet you. You do get to know that if you if that doesn't like if you don't have that gamble and I think he look at the people he surrounded himself so dumb cummings as we speak for Adia and will the senior Nia brexit his and his team a this is a government that probably went blink if you get to the end of October and has one of the other things is will Paul actually allow the government to get there. I think maybe that is priced in by some of the people in this team riches you might not actually get to know deal because of us will be I think in terms of optics wanting is is clear this is the government wants to look his Bradford ideal and do that is prepared to spend a lot of money and released a lot of funds which have never wanted to take and I think that he followed that free by preparing say much you all saying how much she can mitigate some summit there negative outcomes that come from that situation. Do you think some people in number ten POWs Burston sins of might be banking on the fact that parliament would prevent an ideal come. Even there's a lot of discussions about whether that th they can I mean the numbers appear to be their last time they were tested. Admittedly it was a kind of dry run kind of vote it could all change and as you imply it could all change for the worse that opposition could be strengthened. That's it's definitely the September question. You're then looking at the you know. The buffers are approaching very very quickly because you've got the party conference season season unless there's an election and there just isn't the room to to do anything. They're the logical thing for Johnson to do if he's going to do some the dramatic thing is actually to cut Northern Ireland free because that is the one thing that he would probably get away with in terms of the Border Oughta down the Irish Sea if he did that. I think he would probably still be pretty popular on in the in the Tory party but it will be but it would be a catastrophic it'd be a catastrophic for relations with the DP and with the republic but it is the one thing he could do to make no deal work <hes> and take responsibility for it and maybe that's why he's trying to say you know it's done to the Northern Ireland parties to take responsibility for <hes> for for the backstop suddenly strikes me is a more real option now than it was when Theresa May <hes> was challenged about it by the U._p.. Last December she obviously took a different. Take on the Union. Maybe Person Senator if you were to do something like that but will have big ramifications for the Scottish conservatives operatives because it's been quite clear from Reef Davidson and the recently sacked David Mundell that they worry that any decision to Emma Separate Northern Illinois treated differently makes the argument for Scottish Independence Easier Helps S._N._p...