40 Burst results for "Jay Powell"
Game Dev Unchained
"jay powell" Discussed on Game Dev Unchained
"Still affordable. But here's my one rule always, if you're a developer, you've got a playable demo and you can't afford a ticket to one of our events, reach out to me directly. I'll hook you up. I'll give you a ticket. Not a problem. I don't mind at all. That's why we do this. But the biggest thing is even if you can't make it, all of our talks, Q &A's, panel sessions, they're all 100% free and they're all on our YouTube page. So you can tune in right now. And if we're live, it's going on, it'll be this way tomorrow too. But if you miss anything, just go to our YouTube page. It's all there. And it's in handy little playlists as well of if you want to learn about how to get published, if you want to learn about marketing, legal aspects of the industry, anything business, IP, marketing related, it's all right there. You don't have to pay a dime for it. These are experts in the industry. It's a wonderful resource that we love for people to know. Obviously, if you want to support the consumer, not the consumer, but the actual side of the company that makes money, that's our consulting firm. And we do a whole lot of stuff for developers and publishers there. But the most important thing right now is really letting people know that there are ways to learn about this side of the industry that you probably don't know about. And that's with our YouTube page, with our free online classes, we've got classes on how to do a pitch deck, how to pitch to publishers, what to look for, and how to evaluate publisher contracts and publishers. So make sure you're getting the right partner for you. And then you can hop on our Discord. It's just discord.gg slash indie game business. And we've got close to 6000 people on there now. Everybody from developers just coming out of school up to executives at some of these publishing companies around the world. You can ask any sort of question you want in there, and you're going to get really, really good answers from really smart people.Sweet. Well, there you go, people. After listening to this podcast, go over, check out the stream, learn some more. Jay, it's been a pleasure talking to you again. Let's keep in contact here. Let's not wait for another COVID to talk to each other again. I am wholeheartedly in agreement. All right, man. Thanks, guys. See you. Hello, everybody. Brandon here. Want to talk to you today about something very special. We've been on this wild ride together, haven't we? From my early days as a senior employee, feeling a bit lost all the way to leading multiple studios, transitioning to smaller indie teens and to the mobile industry, and now running my own game studio for the last six years. Throughout this time, you've been here listening and learning along with me, sharing this never ending journey of discovery. This year, I'm kind of on this quest of meeting serial studio founders, discussing acquisitions or exploring what it takes to grow studio to over 100 developers. I've always tried to find an exciting topic to delve into, and every year is a little different. The focus is a little different because that's where I am in my career currently, and I want to be able to share what I'm learning with you guys. So I've always been dedicated to asking the tough questions, bringing you insightful answers from industry leaders and experts. And now I want to share with you how I'm applying these answers to my own journey. This is why I'm excited to announce that for just $1.99 per month, you can now subscribe to our exclusive content series. These bonus episodes will give you a deeper look into my personal experiences and how I'm putting into practice what our esteemed guests are preaching. It's more of a personal side of the journey that I hope will show you that we're all in this together and we're all continuously learning. Whether you're a game developer, studio founder, or just a passionate gamer, there's something in it for everyone. By subscribing, not only will you gain access to this exclusive content, but you'll also be supporting the ongoing production of the regular programming. It helps keep the lights on and ensures that I can continue bringing you top quality content and insight into the world of game development. The links to subscribe are in the description. Your support means the world to me and helps me keep doing what I love, sharing this journey with you. So show some love, hit that subscribe button, and let's continue this adventure together. Thank you all for your continued support. And as always, stay tuned for more exciting content. Until next time, this is Brandon, signing off.
Bankless
Fresh update on "jay powell" discussed on Bankless
"I think that come November, the Fed is very unlikely to move because we will at that point have seen the completion of the writer's strike in Hollywood, the United Auto Workers strike. You have student loan repayments. All these things are factoring into Q3, and they had just revised their estimates for GDP growth higher. So I think these factors are going to undercut that view. And keep in mind too that their whole approach, and I think a lot of people like the pushback I get because I don't have the consensus view. I think a lot of people push back and say, are we doing okay though? Like I said- Yeah. When you say, is consensus view that we actually have achieved a soft landing, that recession is probably not going to happen? Would you say that's the consensus view right now? The consensus view is definitely that we haven't achieved it, not past tense, but we will achieve. That is the expectation right now. The expectation is that come Q4, the Fed will have done everything in its power to basically land this plane safely, which is to say it's slow the economy enough to keep inflation down, but it has a veritative recession. That would be their definition of what a soft landing looks like. And a lot of people believe we are in fact in that Goldilocks scenario, and they point to a lot of things. Housing's okay. Labor market's okay. Except that when you dig into the data and you go on a micro level piece by piece, it doesn't really look that great. You brought up the stuff already with the student loan repayments, for example, labor market data. People aren't getting paid what they were getting paid six months ago. You see new entrants in the market. There were headlines from Walmart. Even on the white collar side of people coming into Goldman Sachs or whoever, those jobs for new entrants into those companies, they're not getting paid what they were getting paid a year ago. And that's a big part because even though we are seeing that number tick up slightly in terms of the job openings, the quits rate has actually stabilized. And that suggests that people have far less ability to negotiate the salary they want. Being underpaid, being underemployment is very different from unemployment. And that is still a problem that actually is rising in the US. So we might still have a lot of underemployment. That's why you, David, have the non-consensus view right now of, hey, this landing is going to be a lot bumpier than we thought. And we'll start to feel the bumps in Q1 of next year in the form of a recession. So let me ask you, let's walk through your concept all the way to conclusion. Let's say we get some form of a recession in the first half of 2024. What does this mean? So what does this mean for, well, first of all, how deep of a recession are we talking about and how long? And then also, what would this mean for Fed rates in this scenario? Yeah, so I would say quarter to quarter to quarter. This is kind of broadly how I'm thinking about things. And I have higher conviction in what I expect for Q4 versus first quarter of 2024 and second quarter of 2024. Makes sense, right? Like the farther the future kind of goes out, the less of a crystal ball I have. And I don't think I have a great crystal ball in the first place. But I do think that probably I'm very constructive for Q4, and I still think that's going to materialize. And I think crypto and maybe stocks, but mainly crypto is going to do well in the back half of Q4. But the first quarter is very, very murky for next year because I think that's the point at which we're actually going to see these things really hit, right? Whether it's going to be temporary or not, the energy prices are still going to be a constraint on just spending on in the manufacturing side. And we're all going to be moving further and further away from all the production that people just kind of put in place because those fiscal stimuluses that I was kind of talking about, well, a big part of that had to do with if I was a manufacturer right now, for example, I was getting subsidized by the US government. Maybe let's say they were going to give me a million bucks. They'd say, hey, put in $2 million of your own money and we'll talk. And that's what they did. And then we had this support coming from manufacturing. Well, that's all going to end. And that ends in the first quarter. For example, we'll get some residual spending like I was kind of talking about, but it's not, in my mind, going to be a good quarter. But then I think the second quarter of 2024, it becomes a little bit more clear again. And it's still uncertain. I think that it's still kind of hard to predict. But my guess is the Fed will probably need to start cutting rates or at least move themselves on the path of cutting rates probably by May or June of next year. Because the economy won't be looking so hot because it'll feel very much more like we're headed towards a recession or are in a recession already. Yes. Yes. I mean, there's two things. Number one, of course, the main objective of the Fed is to target inflation. So all of this is irrelevant in so far as it gets inflation down. But also, it cares about full employment. And there's also other concerns. And this is where kind of the fiscal situation becomes difficult to kind of get a handle on because there's a lot of theory that goes into, well, the government spending more inflation kind of goes in more, which is, of course, why rates are higher and why the Fed needs to maintain a hawkish tone. But once that kind of comes off, you allow for that to happen. But what if things were already disinflationary? Like one thing that I think people don't realize is like, and I'm not trying to be a crackpot about this. You can actually look at the data like San Francisco Fed actually published data that looks at the breakdown between cyclical inflation and a cyclical inflation. And cyclical inflation is aligned with the business cycle. A cyclical inflation is everything else. A cyclical inflation peaked back in January of 2022. The Fed started hiking rates in March 2022. So already that component of inflation was already on the way down well before the Fed started hiking rates. So really what the Fed has been trying to get down is cyclical inflation. And that just peaked about two months ago. So like already like this is moving the trajectory that the Fed wants it to be. It's really not a crazy idea to think that the Fed already could be in a place where it's thinking about cutting rates or wants to cut rates, but it won't say that. And it won't move that like all things being equal. Like Jay Powell is actually fairly dovish. And another point is like he controls this board. And I think this is something that well understood, especially from people who aren't Fed watchers on a day to day basis. Like I care what other people are saying on that board. Don't get me wrong. It's important, but like he controls that board. He controls what that board is going to do. And that is a power of this central bank in particular. I mean, that happens for a lot of central banks out in the world. I just cover emerging markets. You can kind of see which ones do and which ones don't. But in the US, like a lot of them will fall in line with what he wants. And I do believe that he is dovish and that is his bias. So that he's dovish, but with a tough guy, Clint Eastwood, Paul Volcker type of front. But he's dovish in the back. I think that like his bias is to be dovish, but the rhetoric is hawkish because that's where they need to be right now. And fascinating how this game works, right? This business in the front in the back. Yeah, well, dovish in the back, I guess. Oh, there's something called verbal intervention too, which is fantastic, which is the idea that sometimes it's not even what they have to do in terms of actually cutting or hiking rates. It's what they say in order to move the markets. It's a lot of chess that goes on. So verbal intervention, is that just what we call bluff? That's one way to phrase it. So what happens in this scenario, David, walk us through. We talked about kind of Fed rates and we talked about kind of the economy and recession. What happens to our risk on assets? Maybe more specific because I'm actually not sure what crypto is. I guess I'd more call it a risk on asset. We talked a little bit about equities, but what happens to crypto in this environment when we're looking at 2024, Q1 and Q2? Because let me tell you, David, 2024 was supposed to be the year of the bull. OK, for crypto, at least, you know, the start of an epic bull run. What do you see in the cards? Can you bring us back down to earth with the signals that you're looking at with macro? If this story comes true, then how does it bode for our crypto assets in 2024? Yeah, one thing I didn't really address was the timeline in terms of how long the stuff will last and how deep it's going to be. And the truth is, I don't know. I don't think anyone really does. My best guess would be that it's going to be a mild recession. That's not going to last too long. And if that's going to be the case and we start seeing the Fed cut rates, then actually that could still be a fairly decent time for crypto in particular. Assuming that the regulatory situation kind of manifests in a way that's amenable to this, crypto could actually still do fairly well. I think that some of those things are going to be put into Q4, for example, expectation surrounding a Bitcoin spot ETF, for example, or the things surrounding the halving for Bitcoin, perhaps, but maybe not inclusive of what's going on with the Dankoon fork. But I think that those things will probably be placed better for a lot of people into November or December of this year, rather than being played in the first quarter of next year, for example. Next year, I think, will still be a fairly volatile period, which is to say probably uncertain. I really don't know. For me, first quarter 2024 is still very much a black box, but I think we'll come out of it into a better, more constructive world in the second quarter of next year. David, I feel like I've gotten a lot of questions in my mind answered. I want to maybe turn back to where David Hoffman, the other David on my left, began this episode with how weird this macro environment is. And you also said the same, David. David, on my right. And this was a tweet that we pulled out for our weekly roll up last week from Kobiese letter, the Kobiese letter. Current situation. One, stocks are falling like a recession is coming to oil prices are rising like there's no recession in sight. Three, interest rates are rising like we have 10% inflation. Four, gold is falling like inflation is gone. Five, housing prices are rising like rates are falling. Six, commercial real estate is falling like it's 2008. Nothing adds up here. And I think, David, I want to make sure I understood you as we kind of close out this episode. I think your theory of everything is the reason why all of this stuff is weird is we have had some pretty unprecedented circumstances on the back of COVID, particularly with respect to the US anyway, fiscal stimulus. And that has artificially distorted a lot of things and has led to a lot of the results that I just read out. And that will start to kind of dry up in the beginning of 2024. And we will get back to a situation that is more in line with kind of reality once that drying up actually happens. Is that sort of your theory of everything, your theory of why things are so weird? Is it basically like, yeah, COVID, fiscal policy, spending, that's why it's been so weird in the US. That explains one through six of the things that I just mentioned. How would you sum this up? The pandemic definitely created some unanticipated outcomes. Fiscal spending was a big product of that. But also, the way the labor market kind of works changed significantly as a result as well, because what we saw was a lot of baby boomers, for example, leave the job market. And as a result, we are left with higher job openings than they would be previously, at least anything that we've encountered in very recent economic history. So there are elements of that that are creating kind of strange effects that make it difficult to kind of interpret the data. I think that we are interpreting the data or finding new ways to interpret the data in the context of how the pandemic has kind of affected our lives. And we haven't really fully kind of materialized it. But there's other elements, too, that we haven't even talked about. AI is a big one. Like the way artificial intelligence is probably contributing to the disinflationary trend isn't being well discussed. When I talk to people in economic circles, for example, they want to talk to me about demographics and they're right to because they're saying like, hey, we don't really have as many young workers in the economy anymore, like the birth rates are declining. And this isn't just in the U.S., declining globally outside of a few pockets in maybe some developing countries. But, you know, like when I look at it, AI is also going to be a very big effect that's going to displace workers and probably lead to greater efficiency and lower input costs. So, you know, like that's something that isn't well understood in terms of how that's also going to impact us and therefore what's going to impact the Fed and therefore how we are going to be impacted in terms of the asset classes and investing. Yeah, that makes sense. Well, I'm coming out of this episode bullish on the two assets that I was bullish on coming into it, which is crypto and cash for me, for my portfolio. But of course, none of this has been financial advice. And David, you've been so kind to lend us your macro brain on today's episode. I want to thank you very much for that. No, thank you for having me. Bankless Nation, got to end with this. Of course, I'll re-articulate. None of this has been financial advice. Crypto is risky. You could definitely lose what you put in, but we are headed west. This is the frontier. It's not for everyone, but we're glad you're with us on The Bankless Journey. Thanks a lot. Thank you.
Game Dev Unchained
"jay powell" Discussed on Game Dev Unchained
"They don't necessarily need to have grown up playing games, but they need to understand how games are made and what separates a good one from a bad one. Because if they don't, the whole relationship is going to get off on the wrong foot because they're not going to have the right expectations. And then I've got this thing put up on the other screen that a minute ago when we were talking about how everybody's playing games now, it's not that they're playing games. With celebrities and things like that, it's that they're okay to talk about it. Because for years you couldn't really, you know, if you were a gamer, you didn't really, especially if you were a sports celebrity, because that's when it was like, oh my God, what do you mean you're not out practicing football or basketball for hours? You're playing, you know, on the Nintendo. They were still playing. One of my favorite pictures is from the San Diego, I guess they were San Antonio Spurs at the time after they won the 1999 NBA championship. There's a picture of all of them on their private plane. And every single one of them has a laptop out and they're playing Starcraft. It's always been there, but now it's okay to talk about it. Yeah. Yeah, we're definitely, I feel like it's so popular now. Everyone's kind of doing it. Which also means, you know, potentially a lot of more game developers, newer ideas, like in terms of replenishing talent. I feel our industry especially is outpacing a lot of other industries of new blood, new ideas, new people. But I do agree that immaturity is still with the new money, right? Because a lot of the new money is from older people that didn't grow up this way, right? That's how I see it. So I think it's going to be a matter of time where this generation becomes the man with the money, right? To finally correct itself. And, you know, it'll probably take another decade, I think. It'll probably take even more than that. Probably more than that, yeah. But I feel like eventually we'll get there to that point where like, yeah, there's actually gamer investors that understands and respects the art, more patient with it, trusting the process, right? And to be clear, those companies exist now. Yes. I mean, there are plenty of firms out there that do get it, do understand it. They are cultivating and investing, you know, in the right way. There's publishers that are run, you know, the very same way. Yeah. It's just, you still also have a lot of the ones that don't. That don't completely get it. But yeah, I mean, I think if anything over the last six weeks, something that, you know, the industry as a whole should be extremely angry about is that a studio like Volition got closed. It is a big one for sure. It feels like 30 years of history. A lot of people from that studio. I think long-termers really finally had a job because of something that changed the last two years, right? It's kind of crazy. Well, you know, let's end it on a good note. You know, we hit the hour mark. You know, this is the part where I shut up and then hand the mic over to you to kind of promote. This will be, today will be the 26th, right? For those who are listening. What can the good people do to kind of find you and learn more, more things? So today's the first day of our 15th conference. You can go, if you still want to grab a ticket, you can go to indiegamebusiness.com or indiegame.business, or basically just search indie game business. You'll get put in the right direction. You can do meetings. You can, I mean, the tickets for to use the meeting system is 60, 70 bucks at this point.
Bloomberg Daybreak Europe
Fresh update on "jay powell" discussed on Bloomberg Daybreak Europe
"Threatens to overshadow the whole Conservative Party conference. Tory West Midlands Mayor Andy Street made his view clear. The brave decision to say is we stick the course and we find a way that we're going to do this. As G7 country, you're telling me we can't build a railway from London to Manchester? It's laughable. Despite those pleas from Andy Street, reports suggest that if a decision is made to ditch the project, it could feature in the Prime Minister's speech to the conference tomorrow. Bank of England policy -maker Catherine Mann says interest rates have only just reached restrictive territory, speaking at an event hosted by Redburn, Atlantic and Rothschild. Mann disparaged the central bank's forecast, saying they have been telling a story fundamentally different from the ones I consider likely. Catherine Mann is widely viewed as the Bank of England's most hawkish rate read last month when she backed continuing rising rates to stamp out sticky inflation. The Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell has told small business owners the central bank is focused on maintaining a strong labour market for a sustained period. Powell didn't share his thoughts on the outlook interest for rates but insisted a strong workforce is key for the economy. Actually, it turns out that as an expansion gets longer and longer, more and more of the wage gains actually go to people at the lower end of the wage spectrum. So these are really beneficial things. To have that, though, the record is also clear that we need price stability. Let me know in the comments. Thanks for watching. The central bank's policymakers have weighed in with their views on the future rate path. Speaking to business leaders, Bank of Cleveland president Loretta Mester says the Federal Reserve will probably need to raise this year. A pair of Wall Street's most prominent U .S. equity strategists are at odds about whether stocks can extend this year's rally against the reality that interest rates will remain higher for longer. More from Bloomberg's Charlie Palace. Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson. An unwavering equity bear says the correlation between real rates and equity returns has fallen deeper into negative territory, a sign that interest rates have once again become a determinant of stock performance. At America, Bank of however, Savita Subramanian thinks equity markets can still thrive if rates remain elevated. The S &P 500 Index logged back -to -back drops in August and September, paring some of its double -digit gain this year. In New York, Charlie Pallet, Bloomberg Radio. BYD is poised to overtake Tesla as the world's biggest seller of electric vehicles makers' global sales gains greater traction. China's best -selling car brand came within a whisker of toppling Tesla last quarter after factory downtime led first delivery decline in more than a year. BYD sold more than 431 ,000 fully electric vehicles in the latest three -month period, up 23 % from the previous quarter. Tesla shipped 435 ,000 over the same period. And New York prosecutors say former US President Donald Trump overvalued his properties to get cheaper financing and rise up the Forbes billionaires list. Trump attended the start of his civil fraud trial on Monday as the state presented its opening statement. The former president's defense team argues that claims Oh involve only successful and profitable business excuse me the claims only involve only successful and profitable loan transactions with no victims those are your top stories on the program this morning coming up next on Bloomberg Daybreak Europe. We'll be back at the Conservative Party Conference in Manchester with Caroline Hepker been who's speaking to the executive secretary to the Treasury Gareth Davies more on HS2 and the debate over tax cuts within the Conservative Party in that interview coming next. This New York Times New York what is that when you get your news from Bloomberg you don't just get the story you get the story behind the story how your EV's battery may not be as green as it seems why a decrease in global birth rates could send countries scrambling to increase immigration you get context context changes how you see things how you change things because context changes everything go to bloomberg .com to get context together
Game Dev Unchained
"jay powell" Discussed on Game Dev Unchained
"But it's frustrating to me to see that happen. And now to sit around and see folks that I know who run great studios and they're just like getting shut down on. I'm sure there's some kind of calculation going on behind the scenes somewhere, but it seems like a whim. This industry should be extremely angry that Volition got shut down. And I will say that point blank. That is a studio that started with Descent. Descent came out when I was in high school or college. I mean, that is a very longstanding studio who consistently did great things. And now they're gone to clear the balance on some investment spreadsheet somewhere. And that's not right. And I know several of these companies that not necessarily under the embracer, but there's several companies at Gamescom that I met with who took investment. And one of them was asked, what advice would you give to companies that are looking to be acquired? And the owner said point blank, ask yourself why. Because if you don't need it, don't take it. And because they're seeing the backlash now, once you sell your company, you're not in charge anymore. Somebody wants to shut you down that can shut you down. You know, you've got publisher gearbox. Great example. You know, one of their publishing directors got like a couple of weeks ago. They may be sold off to somebody completely different. And it is completely within embracers rights to look at them and say, well, you can't publish games anymore. Now you're just a dev house again. You're not in charge. You're not in control of your own destiny anymore. I've had, you know, owners of some of these companies look at me and say, I had to do it over again. I would not have sold because you get purchased because you're doing well. And the minute you're purchased, you're not in charge anymore. And it doesn't matter if you're doing well. You could be cash positive across the whole board. But if, you know, somebody owns 200 companies and they're told they have to cut 25% of them, you may or may not make it. And yeah, it just, it's one of those things that when the VCs, yes, they do put in a good amount of money that is, you know, needed to establish growth and to create new ideas and new IPs. There is a good to it. But when it's taken to excess is when it gets, because we work with, we scout for several firms, but they are investment firms that, you know, we vetted that I trust and that have, you know, they're not brand new to the industry and we're going to save games. They understand what the industry is like and they bring more to the table than just a check, you know? So they're giving insights and they're giving, you know, mentorship and they're helping the studios along. And that's a good investor. You know, the ones that come in and they're like, Hey, we're going to buy your studio for $200 million. Well, unless you're just looking to retire, you have to be really, really careful before you take that money. Yeah. I think that message alone is not repeated enough. I think the mentality of getting finance being to a lot of people, even though they don't really analyze it as that an end goal, right? It's like we made it, you know, our, our, our, our company got financed. We can finally do all the things that we've always wanted to do, but quickly finding out, Oh, wait, we got to get approved for that. And, uh, and I, yeah, it is, uh, it is a weird period because there's a lot of new money being pumped into the industry that don't really have, um, as much, how do I say, uh, ties to the industry itself, whether they don't, you know, they don't grow up playing games, they don't understand, they don't even respect it. Right. It's just, like you said, uh, a box in Excel sheet for them. Uh, it's just another thing. And to them, if they need to eliminate that, do so, you know, that's where the new money kind of being invested in and asking for investment money is a scary period for me, uh, personally, you know, looking at that route, looking to kind of make something on my own and because to me, it feels like as soon as that happens and the fun of it kind of stops in a way, uh, the fun of making a game, you know, to make decisions and it being an art of iteration, like you said, being the key word, can you really put a limit, you know, to a third, two years, three years, you were still trying to figure it out. Right. It will. Well, that's it, Brandon. Yeah. Biggest problem that I see from investors that come into the industry from somewhere else and they come in from all over the place is they don't understand how games are made. You know, say, you know, I know a firm that was run by a engineer, like from not a game engineer, like an engineer engineer building shit engineer and couldn't understand why games weren't, you know, they had said, we're going to spend this much money. It's going to take two years to make the game, but a year and a half in, they're nowhere close to having a game. And it's not fitting into the, you know, the project management stuff. And they're looking at it and I'm like, it's because you're not making software to run traffic lights. You're making a game, you know, with any other kind of software that you're making, you understand what has to be done, what sections have to be completed. And yeah, you can put it in a very nice, fancy project management sheet with games. You have to find the fun. That's not necessarily going to fit within a two week sprint. You know, that may be something that it takes years to get right. And there's a lot of folks coming in, like you said, that new money coming in that don't understand that. And they're like, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. This development team said this was the game was going to be done in two years. It's like, well, yeah, you can get that game done in two years, but it might suck until you call duty ships every two years. Yeah. And how much innovation is in that? I mean, it's one of those things that that's where when we're looking at investment firms on my consulting firm side, I always want to make sure that companies that we're going to work with understand the space.
The Big Take
Fresh update on "jay powell" discussed on The Big Take
"In the local you're selling something that's related to local community like I mentioned to you earlier about the graduation momentos that kind of thing that good market is out there and there is a hunger and an appetite for that amongst say communities around the country but obviously if you are a small company and you want to go online against Amazon well that's probably a David versus Goliath life story when we come back what it takes for these small businesses to survive I've in this rocky economy I'm Wes Kosova and this is Bloomberg can catch us live your favorite Bloomberg radio shows including Bloomberg surveillance Wall Street week and Bloomberg sound on are also available as podcasts listen today on Apple Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcast this is a Bloomberg money minute it's a first ever fine and dish network will have to pay up US regulators levy the one hundred fifty thousand dollar fee in an make effort to sure we don't do too much to junk up space the FCC says dish parked a retired satellite in the wrong place Netflix want some of that toy -tying action that's been so profitable it's turning on screen characters now for its new live -action TV show One Piece into figurines and other items the famous Japanese manga series is something of a test case for the streamers plans for merchandise based on content it isn't where you'd expect to find Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell on the central bank on Instagram but Powell and the Fed have signed up for an account to focus on education and outreach that may mean more investors signing up to see what policymakers think about interest rates in the economy today investors sent the Dow lower by a quarter percent 74 points the SDAC higher by two -thirds of a percent 88 and the S &P just barely over the flat line Joan Doniger Bloomberg radio and I Brian Curtis in Hong Kong let's get you caught up on this hour's top business stories and the markets is Fed chair Jay Powell changing his tune on interest rates Powell says the Fed is focused on a strong labor market that's a part of the dual mandate at the Fed that has come second to fighting inflation today he touted jobs actually turns out that the as an expansion longer and longer more and more of the wage gains actually go to people at the lower end of the wage spectrum so these are these are really beneficial things to have that though the record is also clear that we need price stability but Cleveland Fed president Loretta Mester said that the Fed would likely need to raise rates one more time this here. There's considerable uncertainty around the outlook for example the slowdown in the Chinese economy the possibility of an extended UAW strike and the potential for a government shutdown later this year all pose some risks around the outlook so policy decisions are going to need to be guided by actual progress on our dual mandate goals. Loretta Mester in the meantime we get a monetary policy decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia in the next few hours we get that story from Bloomberg's Paul Allen Bloomberg economics expects the RBA to keep the cash rate target on hold at 0 .1 4 % on October 3rd it's been hiked by 400 basis points since April 22 and that is the largest and fastest tightening in the inflation targeting era so far it's not been enough to push inflation back down to the RBA's 2 to 3 % target recent hotter CPI CPI data raises the risk that Australia's central bank could deliver another hike potentially at its November but meeting Bloomberg economics sees the RBA starting to cut interest rates in the first quarter of next year Bloomberg's Paul Allen in Sydney in corporate news Tesla has posted its first quarterly delivery decline in more than a year the story from Bloomberg's and Kate's Tesla shipped more than 435 ,000 cars in July through September but the results fell short of forecast electric vehicle maker had signal to deliver fewer cars during the third quarter as it prepared its factories to turn out a refreshed model 3 sedan and yet to be released Cybertruck Tesla will have to pick up the pace in the fourth quarter with deliveries of more than 475 ,000 units order in to meet its guidance for the year of 1 .8 million vehicles Bloomberg's and Kate's Tesla traded up six tenths of one percent markets are lower in Asia this morning the Hengxing index down more than three percent the Nikkei is off about one and a quarter percent higher rates right across the board disrupting markets in Asia the yield on the 10 -year US Treasury 4 .67 percent the two -year yield at 5 .10 percent dollar yen 149 .87 global news brought to you by 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries in Hong Kong I'm Brian Curtis this is Bloomberg. Thank you for joining us today. This is the opportunity to build a more sustainable and inclusive future at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum. We help make this possibility a reality by cultivating new connections among global leaders that transcend geographies industries and ideologies because when global leaders work together outcomes benefit all of us. Learn more at Bloomberg .com. Bloomberg news from Bloomberg. You don't just get the story you get the story behind the story. How your EVs battery may not be as green as it seems. Why a decrease in global birth rates could send countries scrambling to increase immigration. You get context and context changes how you see things how you change things because context changes everything. Go to Bloomberg at Bloomberg .com. It's time for today's stem tip. Want to know how to make your selfies even better. OK let's use science. The best time for photos is golden hour. That's the moment right before the sun sets when the atmosphere scatters blue and violet wavelengths making perfect soft and golden selfie light to show off that beautiful face of yours. Click. Check out She
Game Dev Unchained
"jay powell" Discussed on Game Dev Unchained
"It's it angers me to no end to see these companies come in and do that and then go, okay, well, we're going to lay everybody off. It's like, you know, that's shitty, you know, and I don't believe it. Is there any truth? I heard this from an investment friend and maybe you have more insight to it. Just understand the business of it all. Is there like a use it or lose it type of mentality with investment money that... Yeah, there is very much so. Can you explain that a bit more? So every quarter there's an amount that has to be spent. Otherwise it gets retracted from... Well, the first thing that you have to realize and even I didn't realize this until a couple years ago, nobody's playing with their own money. I don't know who is actually financing all this stuff, but it could be some shadow government for all I know. We'll just go ahead and start some conspiracy theories. Investors and VCs are typically playing with the money from other investors and VCs, which are then in turn playing with money from other and it goes down this whole rabbit hole. And so even the normal realization is, okay, I got bought. I have an objective to these people who bought us to actually turn a revenue, turn a profit sometimes. What you don't realize is those people who bought you are also under an obligation to turn a profit to some companies and to some body, person, other firm, whatever it has. And so it creates this cascading effect. And so, yes, they come in, we'll say in hypothetical venture capital, they have $100 million. They're going to go and spend all of that within a couple of years to get everything up and going and to invest in games or projects or companies or what have you. But then they've got to start seeing a return. If they don't, then people are starting to get angry down the line. And as long as you're continuing to acquire stuff, that is good. And let me be blunt then that I don't agree with the majority of the way that these things are done. But that's what happens. As long as you're growing, it's fine. The minute you stop growing, then you have a problem. And so it always just comes down to the firm and how they're going about. And a lot of these firms are putting in a whole hell of a lot more than $100 million in terms of their funding. We've got governments now that are putting up $10, $20 million funds because they looked around during the pandemic and went, oh, my God, maybe we should invest in these games things because people seem to play them a lot.
Bloomberg Law
Fresh update on "jay powell" discussed on Bloomberg Law
"Gates force ill won't -made a offer is vote anything. aiming with to democrats to overthrow And by the remove way, mccarthy House the Speaker if the only it's Kevin deal Democrats kevin McCarthy want is mccarthy to own from what Kevin who's is his to McCarthy, post. orders out make there one outside offering with mccarthy deals the they can to capitol He filed have democrats because a it. the i'm motion Speaking florida not so Monday offering if republican to there's to a deal mentioned house majority leader steve scalise as a potential replacement day one of former president trump civil fraud trial in new york is in the books state attorney general latisha james is accusing trump and his family of inflating his net worth to legally obtain better terms from lenders and insurers before walking into the courtroom trump blasted james saying the case is a continuation of the single greatest witch hunt of all the time president's son will appear in federal court tomorrow in delaware where he's expected to plead not guilty to gun charges hunter biden was indicted on three felony firearms charges last month including unlawfully possessing a gun as an illegal drug user thousands of health care workers are prepped to to strike on wednesday if negotiations don't improve with kaiser permanente as lucinda k explains the workers say they're protesting unfair labor practices and unsafe staffing union levels members tell us their team will bargain with kaiser executives throughout the day they say they're ready to solve the staffing crisis but say kaiser needs to bargain in good faith this would affect seventy five thousand health care workers across the country if they don't reach an agreement they'll go on strike this wednesday six a m i'm lucinda k millions of americans are facing student loan payments again the requirement to resume payments officially went back into effect sunday after an over three year pause during the covid pandemic i'm brian shook you a pair of scientists whose work led to life saving but vaccines have been awarded the nobel prize john beaver says their research is now being used try and help fight other diseases including cancer professors kathleen carrico and drew vice man were praised is by the nobel committee for contributing to an unprecedented rate of vaccine development during the pandemic their work was instrumental in helping develop new methods to immunize people against kovat vid nineteen both the Pfizer biontech and modern vaccines were based on the technology and now have been given to billions of people around the world john beaver reporting spending is edging higher with single -family homes leading the way new government figures show spending on residential construction rose more than one percent nationwide in august it came in at a newly adjusted annual rate of nearly eight hundred eighty billion dollars taylor swift showed up new in jersey sunday with quite the entourage to watch travis kelsey and the jets impossible to shake off the excitement at medlife stadium in east rutherford when taylor swift was spotted cheering for the chief's tight end with hugh jackman and sophie turner by her side last week the pop star was with travis kelsey's mom cheering on her rumored new beau kansas city winning both games edging the new york jets twenty three to on twenty sunday the swift effect also boosted jets ticket sales by more than eighteen percent i'm sarah lee kessler new york toys r us is slated to open some twenty four new brick and mortar shops as soon as early next year parent company w h peak global announced its new air land and sea expansion for the stores which will include some two dozen traditional flagship shops it's in major cities i'm brian showed and i'm dead prisoner bloomberg world headquarters in new york let's check this hour's top business stories in the markets we begin with the days fed speak speak chair jay powell said the focus is on maintaining a strong labor market for a sustained period today he highlighted efforts to get more people into the workforce as part of the fed's push actually turns turns out that that it as a as an expansion gets longer and longer more and more of the wage gains actually go to people at the lower end of the wage spectrum so these are these are really beneficial things to have that though the record is also clear that we need price stability that is fed chair jay powell now he did not comment on his near -term outlook for interest rates separately today we heard from governor michelle bowman she was saying multiple rate hikes may be required to get inflation down to the fed's two percent goal and we also heard from fed vice chair for supervision michael bahr he was saying the fed is at or very near a level of interest rates that is sufficiently restrictive we had weakness in the price of crude oil today with the u .s. benchmark wti breaking below ninety dollars a barrel in new york trading one concern is how higher interest rates will slow the economy and city group was saying today the slowdown will weigh heavily on oil prices next year here is city's global head of commodities research ed morris we don't think demand is going to come in stronger than expected unless for some reason there's a change in every economist judgment about where economic growth is going to be next year but the drag from china the drag from europe and what we expect is a drag from the united states coming into the market really weighs heavily that is city groups ed now morris city's latest quarterly commodities report shows that brent is expected to drop in the low seventies range next year right now brent is trading at just under ninety dollars a barrel well in roughly ninety minutes will get a monetary policy decision from the reserve bank of australia we have a preview from bloomberg's paul allen bloomberg economics expects the rba to keep the cash rate target on hold at four point one percent on october third it's been hiked by four hundred basis points since april twenty twenty two and that is the largest and fastest tightening in the inflation targeting era so far it's not been enough to push inflation back down to the rba's two to three percent target recent recent hotter cpi data raises the risk that australia's central bank could deliver another hike potentially its at november meeting but bloomberg economics sees the rba starting to cut interest rates in the first quarter of next year and that is bloomberg's paul allen we check markets for you throughout the day here on bloomberg shares and china and rallying right now in hong kong the stock was halted last week when the company's billionaire founder was under police control on suspicion of committing undisclosed crimes evergrande shares of twenty two percent but the hangsang is down three percent global news this is bloomberg this is bloomberg law what does the prosecutor have to prove in order to get a rico conviction tell us why the solicitor general is sometimes referred to as the and justice interviews with prominent attorneys in bloomberg legal experts that's jennifer k for bloomberg law joining me is former federal prosecutor robert mint and analysis of important legal issues cases and headlines is the toughest for prosecutors proving trumps intent alito took on congress saying congress has no power to regulate the supreme court bloomberg law with welcome to the bloomberg law show i'm june grosso ahead in this hour the supreme court is facing a pile of cases from the conservative fifth circuit justice clarence thomas recuses himself from a january sixth case and inside j p morgan's
Game Dev Unchained
"jay powell" Discussed on Game Dev Unchained
"And it absolutely, you know, we had folks from movies and television, especially art animation studios coming into our industry because obviously movies were in television wasn't being made at the time. And they were coming to games. Well, they already knew how to use Unreal because that's what they're using on the TV shows anyway. And, you know, that they were typically more expensive than game dev studios. But, you know, that upped the bar in terms of quality level. But, you know, we simply have a good friend who works for one of the online, the casual slot machine, mobile gambling, not like the betting on sports ticker stuff, but, you know, just mobile slot machine games called me one day and he goes, did y'all just get a, one of those things called the checks we got from the government? I forget what they were. Stimulus, not stimulus. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Stimulus check. He goes, did y'all just get a stimulus check? And I'm like, I don't know. I haven't looked at my bank account this morning and I wouldn't check, you know, I was like, on the personal level. It's like, yeah, we just got, you know, whatever it was. I was like, why? And he said, well, we understand our market very much, you know, mobile games, mobile games are all a spreadsheet anyway. And he said, we just had our, you know, incoming revenue just shot through the roof like Tuesday morning. And we have no idea why. And they weren't based in the US. And he goes, now I understand. These people got their stimulus checks and they chunked it into games. And, you know, we had all the success of Animal Crossing and that spurred this whole new wave of life sim cozy games. We had so many eyes on us because our industry was absolutely printing money, you know, because people didn't have anything else to do, really. And so we did see everybody. But now as an aftershock of that, we've got this whole Embracer debacle where, you know, they went and bought everybody for whatever. I mean, with that first CDC back from the pandemic, a friend of mine at Embracer, we were literally having lunch, we were talking about a dev studio and he goes, I love their work. I think you own them. And he's like, no. We had to go on Wikipedia to figure out if that studio was actually owned by Embracer because Embracer has bought so much stuff that even people at Embracer didn't know who owned what anymore. And now we're seeing all of that, you know, I'm not going to say fall apart, but studio closings and, you know, everything getting shut down, projects getting canceled left and right. There's a backlash on that coming now. But we still have a very healthy industry, you know, simply because we've got this many more people. People didn't stop playing. The people that didn't play games before the pandemic didn't stop playing games, you know, after the pandemic. They might have less time. They may not be buying as much, but they're still there and they're still playing. So we're in a bit of a morning after phase, for lack of a better word. But there's still a lot of good stuff going on out there. But yeah, even those studios, paper pitches are very, very rare now. Even those big studios that are coming in, you know, even those new studios that are coming from bigger, more established studios, they're still having to show a demo before they get proper funding. Yeah, I do see that new gamers introduced into the ecosystem, starting with, like, very easy mobile games or even Fortnite, really, are digging into this rich history of gaming and going through from beginner to hardcore. Since, like, there has been, I think, in media and sports, celebrities are more embracing of like, yeah, I play this, I play that. I love this and that. It's like it's becoming more like how we talk about comics and Marvel movies, right? It's becoming it's the same people, essentially, which is great. And I do agree with you. Yeah, there is. Even though we're going through inflation, I think, if anything, right now, at least in this period, there is a cutback from that, you know, insane growth that we were kind of overzealous about. I mean, you go on LinkedIn, you see that hashtag, that little green profile pic, it's becoming kind of like a mark. It is. And it sucks, you know, because and I'll be blunt. You know, the whole thing pissed me off, you know. Which one? To no end. Which one? Sorry. When the CEO went on and then he at this call and he ran it and raved about not getting this deal and it just caused all this kerfuffle to come out. I feel very strongly that if you're going to, you know, have growth like that and you're going to buy that many studios, you're now responsible for the people at those studios but their families. You know, you came in and bought them. Now you're in charge.
Bloomberg Daybreak Asia
Fresh update on "jay powell" discussed on Bloomberg Daybreak Asia
"Move to vacate may actually be losing some steam. Congressman Jim Jordan, a member of the Freedom Caucus, exclusively on Bloomberg Balance of Power, says he supports McCarthy. I know a number of people who were part of that 20 back in January I made think have statements today that they do not support moving forward with the motion to vacate. I think there are statements out from of some my good friends and colleagues in the Freedom Caucus like Scott Perry, I think Byron Donalds, I think Congressman Roy, so I think that's a good sign. So this is important and it's a lot of noise, but aside from the noise, Bloomberg's Emory Hoarder says there's still a lot of other work to do. Two big things to watch out One for. is that Ukraine aid that was not included and President Biden said he hopes McCarthy takes it up quickly. McCarthy, though, yesterday directly linked it with to the border. He said the border is my priority. And the second thing is, of course, they should be working on those 12 appropriation bills to actually fund the federal government. But a massive headache and distraction is about to hit Capitol Hill this week. And that's when, as Matt Gates has vowed to, to a have motion to vacate for the speakership. And Jean -Pierre says that there's bipartisan support for an aid to Ukraine. This is a spokesman, Karine Jean -Pierre. She says there'll be continued pressure to get money out. What we know is that there's bipartisan support for this deal. Again, Speaker McCarthy was on the air multiple times yesterday saying that he wants to, he certainly wants to continue support for Ukraine to get the weapons that they need. After that $6 billion of aid for Ukraine fell by the wayside and the government battle was when it was fought. And the case civil alleging Donald Trump engaged in a decade -long scheme of persistent acts of fraud to inflate his net worth is at trial. Attorney General Letitia Graham James is arguing, no matter how powerful you are, no much matter how money you think you may have, no one is above the law. And Donald Trump is defiant. Very simply put, it's a witch hunt. It's a disgrace. We have a corrupt Attorney General in this state. Now, if he loses, it could be a divorce between him and doing business in New York as well as a $250 million fine. In San Francisco, I'm Ed Baxter. This is Bloomberg. All right, Brian. All right. Thanks very much, Ed. We've got Omar Slim with us, co -head of Asia ex -Japan fixed income at Bridge Investments. Omar, we live in the news business here. We never say the search continues. We say a baby has been found alive. We want movement. Can I get some movement from you on the Fed Chief Jay Powell talking about jobs and not about fighting does it mean anything? Well, it means that they possibly are starting to fine tune the narrative because essentially they think that they're probably where they should be or they're getting close to where they should be and they're paving the way for long pose which they will attribute to the fact that they would want to protect the job market and this is I think is potentially, potentially is the operating word here, a for that face to start. So what that might mean actually plays place into higher rates to a certain degree because it means that instead of crushing growth and crushing inflation which of course would probably draw people into the bond market and bring yields down, it means that maybe the Fed can pull off a soft landing. I'm curious whether or not you think that's possible. I think it's Is it probable? No. I think that goes against what financial history suggests and I think we are starting to see cracks in certain segments of the economy. I think that's certainly what they hope they would be able to achieve and I think they're believe starting to that they would be able to pull it off. I would argue against that in the sense that I think that it's pretty difficult to do so. I think there's already some evidence that there some are cracks some in the economy. I think the lag effect of the 500 plus basis points of hikes is still to be felt in certain segments of the markets and certain segments of the economy. I do think that they increasingly are confident that they can pull it off but I don't think that will be probable. What are the cracks that you see that you think might turn into a chasm? I think there's a few. first The one is, and I think this is probably the one to watch the most, is certain trends in terms of the job job market, whether it's wage growth or whether when you look to the granular level market, in terms of the mismatches, in terms of where the demand is and where the supply is, which I think is going to increase. And I think there are some cracks in terms of certain segments within the market as well. So, does the bond market seem attractive here with yields like this, as we see at the moment, the 10 -year yield up very close to 4 .7%. Does it look attractive, or if we think rates will go even higher, Well, why? the first thing I would say is that what we see in the market now is rather incoherent, in the sense that the higher for longer narrative is pretty strong and is permeating the markets. The riskier assets, whether we're talking fixed income or equity broadly, is holding up reasonably well as well, and I think this is not likely to be sustainable. so to answer your question more directly, I think there's a bit of a disconnect between the valuations and the fundamentals. I think this move higher in terms of yields has a lot of momentum, has sprays from momentum, starting in August, And and it's being fueled by the Fed narrative and by the fact that we have seen an acceleration in terms of inflation in certain segments in certain countries. But I do think that we are towards the top of the yield here, and the short answer to your question is yes, I think the the yields here are attractive, particularly when you look at the very long end and the short end. Yeah, I wanted to switch the focus a little bit to the Bank of Japan. The Tonkon survey had a couple of interesting in things it. One, a little bit of confidence coming back with large manufacturers, and also that the survey data suggests that companies sort of believe in the BOJ's forecast for core down. How do you see it? I think the Bank of Japan is in a bit of a tough spot for a number of reasons.
Game Dev Unchained
"jay powell" Discussed on Game Dev Unchained
"Hmm. There's a, I think one of the things that I think would be helpful to understand is like for the publisher side, you know, it's equally as difficult for them to kind of like put where the money, I mean, it's their money, right? And there's so much assumptions and trust that has to be established right at the very beginning, basically looking at nothing. All right. Just empty promises at best, right? Until, until you given the years, given the money to produce something that gives you even more buy-in to continue with the development of whatever said project. Like you said, the one of the, at least for the one high end of the spectrum, right? You have a team that supposedly had prior success, right? They had come with a resume. And, and I'm still actually pretty surprised that that works, right? Because, because, you know, there's so much that changes when you leave one company to another, you know, you're always, you're never doing the same thing, right? You know, managing a business requires you to step in multiple roles for the business to keep running, right? So if you're a lead designer from one place, you're not going to be a, continue to be a lead designer of another place, right? As a co-founder, there's more responsibility, more things that takes your attention from the game itself. And I'm just always impressed at these new teams that migrate to form a new company. And just, like you said, this is happening, millions kind of thrown at them, uh, with the paper pitch mostly. And I can often tell how my probability of success is measured by what do they do immediately after getting that finance. And a lot of times I see them getting these fancy buildings, you know, getting the highest salary play, uh, workers ever. Right. Um, having, you know, Hawaiian Tuesdays in the Bahamas, you know what I mean? Like they're just spending. Those are the ones that it's easy to say, okay, this is not going to last. Yeah. But a lot of them, I feel do fall into that because millions of money at first is, it's super exciting. Right. It's like, we made it like a lot. A lot of, I think the, uh, poor perception of getting finance is that they equate it to as if they sold the game to that type of success. Right. So they spend it the same is what I see a lot in the last couple of years, especially like, like COVID, I know right now we're in like this like inflation period. Right. So a lot of that have kind of cease and kind of re are reversing, but during COVID so many, anybody with a heartbeat was getting like this insane amount of investment. And I think that's because we were making so much money in this industry. It's like we had, it was COVID as horrible as it was. And, you know, especially the other industries, not even on the personal level, you know, our industry exploded. I was having conversations with publishers three months into lockdown and they're going we've quadrupled sales. And I'm like, what have you done different? Have you changed the marketing? They're like, no, you don't understand. We've done nothing different. It's just, there's this many more people buying games.
Game Dev Unchained
"jay powell" Discussed on Game Dev Unchained
"But again, that's like a very selective view. And a lot of that, I feel the heads of the studios are the same, right? Same types of people that are sticking together. The recreation of those successes have diminished greatly. Like you don't hear too much of a new developer having the beginnings of a GTA success. Well, you do, but they're not coming out of the gate making a GTA. I met with an investor, one of the investment firms that I know, we were at a conference, we were out at a party or dinner or something. And I asked him, I said, what are you actually looking for when you go and you're looking for a team to invest in? What is it you're really looking for? And he said, it's not as much the game. It's not even as much the team. He said, I want to find that person who's leading a group that came from a successful AAA game and they just got pissed off and said, I don't like it here. I'm going to do it myself. And they were angry enough to do something new. And so a lot of the big teams, the up and coming teams come out of bigger teams. But they end up doing something initially that's usually in that triple AAA stage first and then they build up from there. And it's not like an overnight thing. That gets back to the whole, the industry has gotten big enough. 15, 20 years ago when I was doing this, yes, you could have a team walk out and say, hey, I just finished Diablo with Blizzard and now we're going to do a different kind of action RPG. And you would have big old giant contracts thrown at them with nothing but a paper pitch. The first project that I sold for Star Breeze, there was no playable demo. And this was, again, like 15, 20, 25 years ago. They, it was nothing but a mirrored cube bouncing down a hallway in real time. And this was like pre the days of Unity and Unreal basically owning the engine space. That from a technological standpoint at the time was so groundbreaking that the publisher was like, yes, we'll figure out the game that we're going to stack on this. That's the part of the industry that has fallen by the wayside. And when you've got these budgets that are ballooning up into the hundreds of millions of dollars, that's why these big publishers can't afford to really change up that formula that much. Because right now what they've got is very, you know, easy to predict. It's like how much difference, true difference was there from gameplay wise between GTA 3, 4, and 5? None. You're still in a giant. The worlds got bigger, the locations changed, the stories got longer, but they were still the same game. Am I wrong? I don't know. I think you're right. I think they just expanded what worked. And that's what, and that's it. It's like, that's why we see Madden come out every single year. FIFA come out every single year. You know, it's expansion of what's working that's safe. You know, you're not going to see a publisher go out and drop $200 million. On a game that is completely out of right field. But you will see a publisher come out, you know, on the indie side and drop to even $20 million on something that's that. Because they're willing to take that risk and they're willing to, you know, roll with it a little bit and have that faith that something's going to be different. That's why I always explain to investors and folks outside the industry, because they're like, oh, you know, did she work on Madden? I'm like, no, I have never worked on a Madden. I have spent 25 years on the indie side of these games. I was like, but when you look at the industry, it's an iceberg. And the stuff you see above the water is your, you know, Sony, Activision, EA, Ubisoft, that. But underneath that, there's this giant, vast world of indie games out there that are making, you know, really good money. One of my favorite examples is Coffee Stink. You know, they started out with Goat Simulator. And the first time my son showed me that, I was like, this is the stupidest thing I have ever seen in my entire life. I was like, they literally just took a physics engine and some Tony Hawk Pro Skater mechanics and dropped goats in it. And they're selling millions of units. But that took, no big publisher would have jumped on the title. It was just too far out there, but they had huge success with it. And then they went from being developer to, okay, we're going to be self-publishing our titles, continued to have success. And then they're like, okay, we're going to start publishing other developers' titles. They're leaning out and they're trying to help other developers at that point. And it goes and goes and goes up until they get, you know, bought by Embracer or whoever, whichever one of these super conglomerates ended up buying them. But that's the evolution that we see from the indie side and from the people that are really, really making changes and really, really doing cool stuff until it gets to the point where, you know, look at how long it took DayZ to turn into PUBG and then Fortnite after that. So really long winding answer to the part of, you're not going to see, the big budget games are still going to continue to come out. They're still going to be a market for them. They're not going to evolve that much. But, you know, a lot of the evolution of a lot of the really, really cool stuff is coming from these teams that leave those AAA studios and go, we want to do something different.
Game Dev Unchained
"jay powell" Discussed on Game Dev Unchained
"I wonder, I wonder why exactly, I think it's a lot of what I'm noticing in the history is like with these remakes, with these newer games, with the return to single player games being kind of trending again, there's like a changing of guards, it feels like to me, right? There's still remnants of like bigger and better AAA experience. I think everybody's still kind of want that if they can do it right. I think there's only a few studios that can almost guarantee their own success. A lot of it's like the Sony studios, to be honest, a lot of the Sony first party publishers somehow are able to handle that formula better than most of the publishers. Sony and Nintendo, I would say. Nintendo has it the best. Nintendo has its own beast. They're going to keep doing what they're doing and they're going to be successful at it, but it's hard to put them against other- Their budget is nowhere the same as, yeah, like something like Naughty Dog or God of War, right? These budgets have been ballooning to 200 million, to almost 300 now, like I think GTA coming out or rumored to be coming out next year is like upwards of half a billion or something at this point. Well, I mean, the last one, or was it, there was something I read, it was either the last Red Dead or the last GTA, you know, that was a six month cycle, $200 million plus, and that was the last version, not this one. So it's much more, but, you know, those are the type of developers that can almost- But they have an idea that they can, at least if it's good, most people will, because GTA itself have been, how many copies have they sold by now? The 100 plus million copies? That and the fact that all the shark cards and the post-launch content, DLC stuff, that's microtransactions have absolutely exploded that game for years. It exploded that game, extended that game shelf life more impressively than any other game. And that's a single player experience mostly. And then they tagged on the multiplayer, which have something recently they found and stumbled upon, right? At least in their franchise and all these clones, like Saints role with Volition kind of closing down, they have outlasted everybody. So now they become the de facto open world GTA experience for anyone that likes that type of thing. Nobody else is competing against them anymore.
Game Dev Unchained
"jay powell" Discussed on Game Dev Unchained
"Right. Well, so instead of. So these conferences, are you running it like every quarter, it seems, or? At least three a year. We did four a year, like during lockdown. And then last year, I think we used to do them, or for a while, we did them in March, June, September and December. And when June came around last year, that was right about the time everybody was so excited, it's like people go back to GDC and the live events were starting back up again. And we could just tell that there wasn't going to be a lot of activity if we held a June event. And so we bumped it to September. And it was really a reaffirming process because the minute we announced, it's like, hey, look, we're just going to we're not canceling anything. We're just moving this June event to September because right now everybody is so excited to be back out in the real world. Everybody's going to these things. Everybody's going to these live events. And I got so many emails from all around the world, developers saying, please don't stop doing this. These are our only opportunities to meet with publishers. And that's truthfully the reason we started doing them years ago, because GDC is expensive. I mean, you're looking at if you're going to be out there for a week with one or two people, it's a $10,000 spend. Gamescom is a little more affordable, but it's still expensive. You have so many studios all around the world, Southeast Asia, South America, I mean, even North America, Western Europe. Now we're seeing a lot of growth come out of Africa, the Middle East. They can't afford to spend 10 grand and fly out halfway around the world for these meetings. And so opening this digital space and allowing them to have that same opportunity to meet with publishers and investors and marketing firms and all the folks that are generally at the big conferences, there's a gigantic need for that. And so we haven't stopped. I told them even then to say, don't worry, we're going to continue to do this. We're just bumping it a little bit until everybody gets over the excitement of being able to get on an airplane again. But yeah, I mean, that's the big thing. We do it to make sure everybody out there has a good chance of being successful. Are these, have the needs and the challenges of getting a publisher, what have been, what has changed or remained the same? It's just people having these game ideas that they want financed, supports, what stages are you seeing the successes that these relationships are going after a conversation? Are usually publishers needing to see a pitch video or halfway through development? What are the recurring theme that you're seeing? To be safe, this is where you should be before you even talk to a publisher. The days of selling a paper pitch, unless you are an extremely successful team already are pretty much over. Even teams that have shipped titles before, they need to produce a prototype or a vertical slice or a demo or something playable. There's no sweet spot in there. There needs to be something tangible that the publishers and investors can see before they're going to sign off on anything. That, and it takes longer now to do publishing deals in some cases than it used to. Prior to the pandemic, for the first 20 years of my career, we could almost bank no matter what changed in the industry. You were looking at about a three-month process from the time you sent the information to the publisher to the time the contract was signed. Now that is closer to four months, if not a little more than four months, depending on who it is. And part of that is because there is so much stuff for the publishers to go to. When we do scouting for these publishers and investors, it's not because they aren't seeing enough games. Nearly every time someone comes to us, it's because they're seeing too much and they need help weeding out and cutting through a lot of it or going out and finding very specific types of games that they want to look at. There's still far more publisher opportunities out there than a lot of developers realize. It's dropped a little bit. We do the publisher list every single year. Shameless plug. Go to our website. It's right there. Download it. It's free. Nothing to it. Originally, we did that. It was like 700 publishers several years ago. It's down to about 550 now. We're seeing publishers come and go. But generally, the fluctuation is on the mobile side more than the PC console side. There's still a lot more options out there than a lot of developers realize. You do now have to have a demo before you can realistically get a deal. But aside from that, it's still a lot of the same. There's no sweet spot on financials. I mean, there are companies that are looking to spend less than $50,000. There are publishers out there who won't spend less than $10 million. So no matter what budget range you're in, there is a publisher fit for you. That part hasn't really changed. There's still a ton of options. But the biggest thing is that you pretty much have to have a demo or something showable that the publishers and investors can play now before they'll sign off on funding deals. With so many options, so many tools available, the idea of making gains feels easier, right? But that comes with a lot of choices, a lot of paralysis, analysis, analysis paralysis, right? I have this theory that I feel like even though these, technically, it's easier to make gains. In a way, it feels like it's actually harder as well because of the competition. But also, I also feel like the ideas are not as, I don't know, fleshed out because of how easy it is to just jump right in and do something. So it feels like a sea of averages. I would say, yes, in many ways, it is easier to make a game now. I mean, you've got things that the tool sets in Unity and Unreal have progressed so far. You can literally go in and get things off the asset store and mock up at a complete demo. But it's that much harder to make something that's good. The big question everybody's asking now is, well, can I make a complete game with AI? I'm sure you can. It's not going to be good, and you're not going to get a publisher for it. But can you do it? Yes. Can a solo developer on their own make a game today? Yes, they can. Is it going to be good enough to get published? Most likely not. And so that's part of a lot of the mediocrity and a lot of the stuff that we see coming through both our own scouting stuff and for publishers and at conferences as well. It's more important than ever for developers to understand how their game is different. You know, we used to use the phrase unique selling point, but it is extremely difficult to come up with a truly unique selling point these days. But, you know, have that thing that sets you apart from everybody else. Because, yes, it is in many ways, it is easier to make a game these days. But that doesn't mean it's going to be good. Yeah, I always kind of relate it back to music. I'm not a musician. I barely sing. But I'm just saying, in theory, I feel like everyone can just put together technically a song, right? But very few can be popular. Very few can make it through the market. Very few artists actually make it to the top. I feel like in this period of game making, we're hitting similar barriers of entry, right? The barriers of entry are lower than ever, right? But like you said, to make something actually good has gotten a lot tougher. And it all draws from the experiences of the developer, which is each to their own very unique, but very few are actual. They're actually trying to say something, if that makes sense. Because there is a lot of crap out there right now. There is. And but that's part of that is also building on iteration. And one thing I tell investors all the time is, yes, you can turn around and predict what the stock market is going to do for Activision or EA or Ubisoft or one of the big AAA studios or companies. But those companies aren't innovative. They're not ever going to be innovative. They have an objective to their shareholders to make money. And so whenever it comes down to true innovation in the industry, that's where indie developers and indie games come in, because they're the ones going out there and taking the risk on stuff. If you look at almost every major genre that has evolved in the last 5, 10 years, it has come and been born of some sort of indie game. Somebody who was doing something different that wasn't like everybody else. And because their only objective was to keep themselves happy and make sure they had enough money coming in for them and not like an entire board of shareholders and all this other stuff, they were able to do that. And so I think the phrase that we're looking for is the barrier of entry is lower, but the barrier of success is much higher. But the way that you do that isn't by doing another Metroidvania that doesn't really separate itself from Hollow Knight or Celeste or something like that. It's doing something that very few people, if anyone, has done before or doing it in a more unique way or with a different feel to it, that sort of stuff. That innovation is what makes the indie team stand out from everybody else. And that's what publishers look for. Right. Yeah, there's definitely, finding a voice, finding a reason for why your game is being made is going to be a difficult one. I foresee the next 5, 10 years with, there is this quantity problem that we're having. There's so many, I was just talking about this with the previous guests, that with entertainment, being a close cousin, there's so many streaming services now that content is king. But every two Fridays or every Friday, there's always new stuff, right? So there's so much to watch where I'm constantly finding myself behind on the latest thing. And all these services are always looking for content to fill, right? So there is this quantity thing where a lot of developers can create average content, really, because what you're asking for is average content if you're constantly asking for content to fill up, to update your library. But at the same time, I think the combative part to that is that there's a lot of remakes. There's a lot of Resident Evil. There's a lot of Metal Gear, like in this era that we're taking back because those game designs are pretty solid. Now we're just updating the graphics. And even then it takes two to three years, right? So it's rare, I think, to see that type of basically PS2 quality game with updated graphics with a new IP nowadays. New IP nowadays to do that on the first try is completely difficult. Like Striking Distance with Callisto Protocol, it is quad A, right? At the same time, though, Dead Space remake came out, right? Ironically, if you guys know the history at all for the listeners and yourself, the Callisto Protocol team were the original dev team that made Dead Space. And for them to come out at the same time, it's kind of like you're being haunted by your old work, right? At least for the developer. And from what I read, I haven't played either of them yet, but neither of them. Dead Space was a solid game of the year, right? And they just updated the graphics and people just said Dead Space is completely obliterated the Callisto, you know. But that gets back to that point. You know, these studios can look at doing remakes the same way Hollywood does. It's easier and I don't want to say easier. It's still a technical challenge and you're still dealing with, like you said, a year or two years of game development. But predicting the sales is easier and they can sit down and they can say, okay, look, we can spend, you know, 20, 40, 50 million dollars on this new IP and here's our projection for it or we can spend that much or maybe even less on remaking an old game and we're going to see that much more, you know, here's the projection for that and then a little more. Our industry is getting to the point now, you know, where we have had a solid 30, 40, 50 years of good game development. You see, Nintendo does it. They're releasing, they're remastering all the old Zelda games and putting them on Switch. Atari is back in its third iteration doing remaking games. You're having a lot of these things that were successful on PS2 or some of the older platforms that are getting redone and re-released. But you've got to remember, solid Metal Gear on a PS2 was still a 100 million dollar game probably. I mean, at least 50, probably closer to 100 million to get that thing developed. That's still a load of money. And so, yes, the developers in the case of the Callista protocol, they are going up against their old stuff, but it's in the same sense that, you know, a lot of these games in the AAA space are going against each other. It's like, look at how much stuff got readjusted as Baldor's Gate came to launch time and they ended up moving that up like, what, two months maybe? And then Starfield coming out, you know, the AAA publishers knew there were going to be a competitive Q3 and Q4 on sales in that genre. At the same time, you had an indie RPG come out, Sea of Stars, and did, I think, 100, 200,000 units in the first week. So there are still plenty of opportunities out there for good games. But, you know, developers need to make sure that what they're creating is good and it stands out from everything else in some way, shape, or form. Because I guarantee you, Sea of Stars development budget was a tiny fraction of what Baldor's Gate 3 or Starfield was. So there's still opportunities. You've just got to be much smarter about it. The days of, oh, we're going to make a good game and we're going to put it on Steam and it's going to sell, that shit's dead and gone. That doesn't happen anymore. You've got to be able to think beyond that and get the marketing and everything else going for the game in order to have that success. Yeah, I think he kind of touched upon it at the beginning where the iteration part of it is king. Like, if you blow everything at the beginning and now have, can't keep the dev team around to iterate on the fixes, on the feedback, keep the community going, that's usually how these studios are closing. And I think, you know, the AAA, the bigger games are still kind of going through that cycle of bigger and better. And this is our one shot, our gamble to see if it kind of hits. And it is really foolish for them to keep doing that, which is very surprising, given how many, all the lessons learned and the avenues we can go about marketing and doing these things.
Game Dev Unchained
"jay powell" Discussed on Game Dev Unchained
"And then we also started like early 2019. We started doing digital conferences before anyone really knew what that was. And coming up, we've got our 15th one on the way. So it's been busy, basically. Well, it definitely sounds busy. I think, you know, having the foresight that you had back then, where conferences were mostly a physical affair and then they're turning it digital and the pandemic kind of really accelerated that. People are more used to getting information quicker, having kind of like a thirst for necessary to get in. And, you know, it's great to kind of hear the success that you guys are having. What have been like the main conversation pieces, you know, just kind of being the 15th conference that you guys are throwing together? What has kind of been the recurring theme or at least trending theme that a lot of these speakers are wanting to talk about? No matter how many times we do this topic, at the end of every conference, somebody asks us to do it again. And that's the quintessential how to find a publisher, you know, talk or session or anything around that never gets old. I mean, that's, you know, we've constantly got new publishers coming into the mix, new genres and business models popping up. But every single time we do a conference, there is going to be a session entitled How to Find a Publisher. So a lot of what we do, especially on the education side like that, has, I'm not going to say gone completely in that direction, but we do lean in that direction. Like every Thursday on the Discord, we do live pitch reviews with we bring in, you know, developers can share their pitch deck or even just hang out and watch somebody else's pitch deck. And we go through it live and say, OK, look, this is good. This is where you need some work. You should add a slide that has this in it. All of that sort of stuff, you know, with the growth of digital in the pandemic and afterwards, it's, you know, the gates have been opened, so to speak. And there's so many more games being pitched to publishers. We have mid-tier publishers that are seeing 3000 pitches a year come in. So it's gotten very, very competitive. And so developers are always interested in finding out how they can make sure that they have everything or get a little bit of an edge. A couple of weeks ago, we had Joshua Garrity, who's the head scout over at Secret Mode on. And we just did a Q &A one Friday afternoon on what publishers are looking for. Our podcast generally runs an hour. That one ran an hour and 45 minutes because we had so many questions coming in from developers. So I would say if there's one thing that stays constant, that is absolutely it.
Game Dev Unchained
"jay powell" Discussed on Game Dev Unchained
"What's up everybody, welcome to another episode of Game Dev Unchained, the number one game development podcast about game development and the lifestyle thereof. I am your host, Brandon Pham, and with me, an old friend, Jay Powell. Hey Brandon, it's good to be back, man. All right, man. This is the part of the podcast where I ask our guests, which is yourself, a little bit about yourself, where you've been, where you're at, where you're heading before we get into it. So where I've been 25 years on the business side of games. So a bit of a background. I started out as an agent, did some of the very first publishing deals for Paradox and the People Can Fly, Starbreeze, did that for a little while. Then we transitioned that into a casual game publisher, which I ran the acquisitions and built the distribution network for, did that for about three more years and left to start what we would now call a production firm, but a production studio. But back then, no one knew what that was. So developers thought we were publishers and publishers thought we were developers, and we were truthfully just in the middle of coordinating everything. Did that for three years, and then I founded the Powell Group. And so there's two sides of my world now. One is the Powell Group consulting side, which we do everything from helping developers find publishers to scouting games for publishers and investors and doing audits on projects. Basically, if it revolves around the business side of the industry, we do something with it. But then my pride and joy is indie game business, which we started probably five years ago at this point. That just had years of frustration with no one teaching developers how to do business and finally just said, okay, never mind, I'll do it myself. And with the help of Dan, aka Indie, on Twitch, we started a small little Twitch channel that every week we sat down and did interviews or sessions or Q &A talking about the business, the marketing, the licensing side of things. And then that grew into a big Discord channel. We've got close to 6,000 industry professionals in that now. And we turned the Twitch channel into a podcast, which made everything even bigger. And so now we stream every week on YouTube, which LinkedIn and Facebook, plus it's live on our Discord. But the big thing is every single session we've ever done, every conference session, every podcast with experts in the industry, it's all 100% free. We don't lock anything behind a vault or something like that. You just go to our YouTube page. And if you want to learn about business, marketing, licensing, how to build a pitch deck, all of that stuff is right there and it's free.
Game Dev Unchained
A highlight from 0332: Get Your Game Published with Jay Powell
"What's up everybody, welcome to another episode of Game Dev Unchained, the number one game development podcast about game development and the lifestyle thereof. I am your host, Brandon Pham, and with me, an old friend, Jay Powell. Hey Brandon, it's good to be back, man. All right, man. This is the part of the podcast where I ask our guests, which is yourself, a little bit about yourself, where you've been, where you're at, where you're heading before we get into it. So where I've been 25 years on the business side of games. So a bit of a background. I started out as an agent, did some of the very first publishing deals for Paradox and the People Can Fly, Starbreeze, did that for a little while. Then we transitioned that into a casual game publisher, which I ran the acquisitions and built the distribution network for, did that for about three more years and left to start what we would now call a production firm, but a production studio. But back then, no one knew what that was. So developers thought we were publishers and publishers thought we were developers, and we were truthfully just in the middle of coordinating everything. Did that for three years, and then I founded the Powell Group. And so there's two sides of my world now. One is the Powell Group consulting side, which we do everything from helping developers find publishers to scouting games for publishers and investors and doing audits on projects. Basically, if it revolves around the business side of the industry, we do something with it. But then my pride and joy is indie game business, which we started probably five years ago at this point. That just had years of frustration with no one teaching developers how to do business and finally just said, okay, never mind, I'll do it myself. And with the help of Dan, aka Indie, on Twitch, we started a small little Twitch channel that every week we sat down and did interviews or sessions or Q &A talking about the business, the marketing, the licensing side of things. And then that grew into a big Discord channel. We've got close to 6 ,000 industry professionals in that now. And we turned the Twitch channel into a podcast, which made everything even bigger. And so now we stream every week on YouTube, which LinkedIn and Facebook, plus it's live on our Discord. But the big thing is every single session we've ever done, every conference session, every podcast with experts in the industry, it's all 100 % free. We don't lock anything behind a vault or something like that. You just go to our YouTube page. And if you want to learn about business, marketing, licensing, how to build a pitch deck, all of that stuff is right there and it's free.
Bloomberg Radio New York - Recording Feed
Monitor Show 16:00 09-20-2023 16:00
"With Bloomberg, you get the story behind the story, the story behind the global birth rate, behind your EV battery's environmental impact, behind sand, yeah, sand, you get context, and context changes everything. Go to Bloomberg .com to get context. All these different participants who submitted their numbers, and by the way, economic forecasting is very difficult, guys. I've heard that before. I heard that today, actually, from Craig's chair, Jay Powell. I mean, not if you have a crystal ball, I don't know, do you guys not have one? Yeah, we don't. Let's walk you through the market numbers here. We've been talking a lot about the macro, but it was a pretty busy day for equity markets, obviously on pins and needles about the Fed, but of course, you had an IPO today in Klaviyo and not necessarily the best trading day for Instacart and Arm, once again. The net effect of it all is the Dow Jones Industrial Average, lower by about two -tenths of a percent. The S &P 500 giving back almost a percent on the day of roughly 41 points, a close right around that 4400 level, a key technical level there. The composite NASDAQ down about 200 points, or one and a half percent, while the Russell 2000 looks like it's going to finish out the day lower by about nine -tenths of a percent. All right, quick look at the S &P 500 in terms of the names, about 173 to the upside, 328 to the downside, so certainly more of that risk -off trade, no doubt about it, and two unchanged, Scarlett. Yeah, volume also slightly lower than the year -to -date average. Let's look at the sector performances here for the S &P 500. It was a down day for the major indexes, as Romain told us, but there are some sectors that did finish higher, including telecom names, healthcare equipment, and food, beverage and tobacco. So you're seeing a lot of those dividend plays, those safety plays come out ahead. On the flip side, you've got a lot of those big tech names, media, entertainment, semi and semiconductor equipment companies, and tech hardware, along with software and services, all leading to the downside, all down by at least one and a half percent. All right, a little nervous making sure that my gainers actually held onto their gains, but let's go to it. Klaviyo, right? The IPO, it's been a big week. Not all of them sent their own. Can we just get rid of that fourth one? Darn it.
Bloomberg Radio New York - Recording Feed
Monitor Show 16:00 09-07-2023 16:00
"Kind of, if you will, tailwinds and bringing inflation down. Inflation expectations have come down and measures of underlying inflation have really come down quite a bit as well. And we're seeing that each month with the data. Speaking of services, one of the things that Jay Powell talks about a lot is core services ex -housing. But there's been a lot of criticism of that as sort of a dog's breakfast of a lot of different things that aren't related. And apparently in the last month we saw a rise in that indicator because these people got paid. We saw a lot of financial services compensation go up. Is that really useful, that index? This is why I mention this, what we call the MCT, is because it takes all of the components of PC inflation, personal consumption, expenditures, inflation, analyzes them all and weights them according to kind of their signal that they carry for inflation. So I think that's a good way to think about, you know, because each piece kind of has its own story, if you will, and own behavior. You know, I think the reason it is kind of useful to look at this, you know, core services excluding housing is because the other components of inflation have really been moved by factors related to the pandemic. You know, goods prices rose dramatically, car prices, appliance prices. Now they're coming down. We don't want to take super high signal from the fact that car prices are coming down because that's kind of what we were expecting to see. Energy prices have come down. Food inflation thankfully has come down. So we really want to kind of understand which parts of this is really reversible, so pandemic things, supply chain issues, which of them may be a better reflection of the imbalances of supply and demand. So I think, you know, the core services category is probably a good place to look. How are we doing on the supply and demand imbalances? But shelter honestly is part of that too. It's a big part of the inflation.
Bloomberg Radio New York - Recording Feed
Monitor Show 15:00 08-28-2023 15:00
"Under law, one of the big moments happening today in Washington. Lot different than where we started at the courthouse with a trial date. If you're just joining us, March 4th. So says the judge here in Washington for the January 6th trial for Donald Trump. Of course, he will attempt to delay the start of that trial. And we'll keep you posted if and when he does. It's on to New York now. Bloomberg Business Week starts right now. Broadcasting 24 hours a day at Bloomberg .com and the Bloomberg Business Act. This is Bloomberg Radio. This is Bloomberg Business Week. Insight from the reporters and editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine. Plus, global business, finance and tech news as it happens. Bloomberg Business Week with Carole Masur and Tim Stenebeck on Bloomberg Radio. And a very good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to Bloomberg Business Week live on Bloomberg Radio on YouTube and Bloomberg Originals. Yes, it is another Monday, our last Monday in August, August 28th. Carole Masur, along with Bloomberg News deputy team leader for U .S. Equities, Jess Matton. Jess is in for Tim Stenebeck. So hard to believe, but we are almost done with August. And also today, if we can sort of cling on to these slight gains that the S &P 500 has, it would be the first time this month there's back to back gains. If you can believe that. And that's kind of significant. It is. When we've seen kind of a downward trend here. Especially the volatility that we've seen or on other days like this, right? It almost seems like this is the typical summer doldrum day that we haven't really felt like we've gotten the last couple of weeks. I'm so glad you're in that chair because we have a lot to talk about when it comes to the markets. And we are going to talk about the data dump that's coming our way, everybody. Now that everyone seems to be back from Jackson Hole, the Fed's going to have a lot to look at. Investors are going to have a lot to look at. So with that in mind, we're going to get into how Jay Powell has.
Bloomberg Radio New York - Recording Feed
Monitor Show 18:00 08-25-2023 18:00
"Star team. Did I leave anybody out? I hope not. If I did, I'm just going to say it takes a village every day, every week, and we so appreciate them. Catch our weekend show, Bloomberg Business Week, as I said, 8 a .m. on Bloomberg Radio and our podcast feed. Jess, thank you so much for always jumping in here. Always a pleasure. We appreciate it, really. And check out Jess's story. It's going to be on the Bloomberg over the weekend. That does it for Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Master with Jess Mattingen for 10 Stenebeck, Wall Street Week with David Weston. It starts right now. Broadcasting 24 hours a day at Bloomberg .com and the Bloomberg Business Act. This is Bloomberg Radio. This is a Bloomberg Money Minute. The company a lot of us turn to for grocery shopping and delivery during pandemic lockdowns had to move beyond that when its growth started to fade. So now Instacart focuses more on the consumer data it collects that helps grocery stores sell more. Instacart saw revenue grow by nearly a third during the first half of this year. Now it's getting ready to go public and that process could start next month. The April explosion that destroyed a SpaceX rocket in Texas shortly after takeoff destroyed a lot of other things, too. It left concrete chunks strewn across tidal flats. Federal wildlife officials have questioned whether they were blocked from the site. Elon Musk is notoriously private about company doings. SpaceX isn't commenting. On Wall Street, investors focused on Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell, saying today what he said for a while about raising interest rates that the central bank will move carefully. That led to gains of about three quarters to one percent. The Dow up two hundred forty seven. The Nasdaq one hundred twenty seven. The S &P twenty nine. Joan Doneger Bloomberg Radio. You heard the phrase the voice of experience. You're the guy that made the bet with Warren Buffett. I get that that might go on my tombstone. There's actually more than one of them. Writing on Star Wars was crazy fun. The voices of experience tell their stories on Masters in Business. When I got hired in twenty thirteen.
Bloomberg Radio New York - Recording Feed
Monitor Show 14:00 08-25-2023 14:00
"Not real when you put your mugshot out there. I guess maybe if they're smiling we know it's not real now that we've seen the contrast here. I'm so confused about so many things. Jeannie, thank you so much. Rick Davis as well. They're gonna join us later, by the way, on Balance of Power, our closers, our signature panel. So meet all of us later on today on Bloomberg TV. In the meantime, we bring Kaylee Lyons into the conversation. Coming up next, Hour 2 of Sound On starts right now. It's been there. People are going to say I was doing better then than I am now. Bloomberg Sound On. Politics, policy and perspective from DC's top names. You got to work to get people back to work, but not only that, but to higher paying jobs. The Russian threat is being degraded and unfortunately it's being degraded at the cost of Ukrainian lives, blood, treasure. Bloomberg Sound On with Joe Matthew and Kaylee Lyons on Bloomberg Radio. The is fight not over. Welcome to Hour 2 of Sound On as Jay Powell makes it clear in Jackson Hole they have not yet won the fight against inflation. More hikes could be coming and rates could stay higher for longer. But you knew that already. We'll talk about what we learned today with two important interviews that Bloomberg's Michael McKee will bring us live from Jackson Hole this hour. Chicago Fed President Austin Goolsbee and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester with analysis from Bloomberg Fed expert Kate Davidson. We've got a big hour ahead here and glad to say that Kaylee Lyons has joined us for it.
Bloomberg Radio New York - Recording Feed
Monitor Show 07:00 08-25-2023 07:00
"Al's remarks, of course, Jackson Hole, stocks as a whole are looking a little bit higher ahead of the open. S &P and Dow futures are both up about three tenths of one percent right now. Nasdaq futures on the rise by one tenth of one percent. Up next on Bloomberg Daybreak, we're going to have much more on President Trump's arrest in Georgia. And investors wait to hear from Jay Powell at Jackson Hole in our 7 a .m. news. Don't get to say that too often. And our three of daybreak starts right now. Broadcasting 24 hours a day at Bloomberg .com and the Bloomberg Business Act. This is Bloomberg Radio. From the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers Studios, this is Bloomberg Daybreak for Friday, August 25th. Coming up today, Donald Trump surrenders in Georgia and becomes the first former president to take a mugshot. No accident. The U .S. thinks Wagner leader Prigozhin's plane crash was an assassination. Wall Street awaits a highly anticipated speech by Jay Powell. We are in Jackson Hole with the latest. New York Governor Hochul gives the Biden administration an earful. And who won the GOP debate? A new poll is out. I'm John Tucker. Those stories straight ahead. And I'm Dan Schwartzman. The Yankees bullpen fails them in a loss to the Nationals. I'll have that and more coming up in sports. That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak. On Bloomberg 1130 New York, Bloomberg 99 .1 Washington, D .C., Bloomberg 106 .1 Boston, Bloomberg 960 San Francisco, Sirius XM119, and around the world on BloombergRadio .com and via the Bloomberg Business Act. Good morning. I'm Nathan Hager. And I'm Karen Moscow. A new best stock index futures higher this morning. S &P futures have a quarter percent or about 11 points.
Bloomberg Radio New York - Recording Feed
Monitor Show 06:00 08-24-2023 06:00
"Legal analytics, business insights, and workflow tools at BloombergLaw .com. With guidance from our experts, you'll grasp the latest trends in the legal industry, helping you achieve better results. For the practice of law, the business of law, the future of law, visit BloombergLaw .com. Up next, we'll get the latest on Nvidia's blowout earnings plus analysis of the first Republican presidential debate. It's coming up in our 6 a .m. news. This hour two of Bloomberg Daybreak starts right now. Broadcasting 24 hours a day at Bloomberg .com and the Bloomberg Business Act. This is Bloomberg Radio. From the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers Studios, this is Bloomberg Daybreak for Thursday, August 24th. Coming up today, Nvidia surges after another earnings blowout fueled by artificial intelligence. Market attention now turns to Jackson Hole and a key speech from Jay Powell. The first Republican debate has the candidates targeting President Biden and each other. And the man who led a mutiny against Vladimir Putin is presumed dead. Rudy Giuliani surrenders to Georgia authorities and posts $150 ,000 bond and a hammer attack at Brooklyn leaves a mother and two children fighting for their lives. I'm John Tucker. Those stories straight ahead. And I'm Dan Schwartzman. The Yankees snapped their nine -game losing streak in a big way in the Bronx. I'll have that and more coming up in sports. That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak. On Bloomberg 1130 New York, Bloomberg 99 .1 Washington, D .C., Bloomberg 106 .1 Boston, Bloomberg 960 San Francisco, Sirius XM 119 and around the world on BloombergRadio .com and via the Bloomberg Business Act. Good morning. I'm Nathan Hager. And I'm Karen Moscow and NASDAQ futures are jumping this morning at 1 .1 percent or 163 points. S &P futures up four tenths.
Markets Daily Crypto Roundup
A highlight from Crypto Update | Bitcoin Hovers Around $26K, Thailands New Pro-Crypto Prime Minister
"This episode of Market Staley is sponsored by Kraken. It's Wednesday, August 23rd, 2023, and this is Market Staley from CoinDesk. Hi, I'm Michelle Musso here with your crypto markets roundup. On today's show, we're talking Bitcoin, XRP, Thailand and more. And just a reminder, CoinDesk is a news source and does not provide investment advice. Bitcoin has dropped back below $26 ,000 as the market awaits developments from the central bankers meeting at Jackson Hole on Friday. The world's largest cryptocurrency by market value dropped just below the $26 ,000 mark on Wednesday, after trading in a tight range over the past 24 hours, hitting a weekly low of $25 ,500. The cryptocurrency rebounded slightly from the low but remains down 9 % over the last seven days. The head of digital asset strategy at Fundstrat wrote, It is possible that any semblance of dovishness from Jay Powell on Friday could help inspire a recovery. Continuing, Beyond that, we also have a potential ruling in the grayscale case to look forward to. The analysts added that they believe the market is closer to a local bottom rather than top, given the absence of industry -specific catalysts and a decline in liquidity. On Monday, we discussed that the past week saw an increase in the Ether -to -Bitcoin ratio. The Ether -Bitcoin ratio rose more than 2 % last week, contrasting with its record of taking losses during bouts of risk aversion. Still, options data tracked by Amberdata show a strong bearish outlook for Ether, with traders hedging against potential price weaknesses over a number of timeframes. Meanwhile, traders remain bullish on Bitcoin over the long run. The persistent bias for long -term BTC calls perhaps stems from the belief that the top cryptocurrency would be the first beneficiary of an eventual positive flip in the macroeconomic environment. Noelle Acheson, author of the Crypto is Macro Now newsletter, said, Bitcoin continues to be the macro asset for the crypto market and could also see some strong inflows as the macro environment shifts. Many large investors will continue to prefer Bitcoin exposure for its liquidity, market cap, and relative stability. Bitcoin's short -term holders, which tend to be sensitive to short -term price gyrations, are largely underwater on their coin holdings after the recent price slide, according to on -chain data. The head of digital assets in Merrick Solutions said the unrealized losses of short -term holders are one of the critical problems for the market right now. The real problem is the current fragile market set up for Bitcoin because short -term holders are underwater in both price and narrative. They said this in an email. BNB, a cryptocurrency closely linked to Binance, fell to its lowest in more than a year after a report regarding fresh risks over Russia sanctions added to already mounting regulatory and legal pressure on the crypto exchange. The token sank to its weakest level since June 2022's crypto market crash. It's since pared some of those losses down by 7 % over the past week. The latest decline happened after The Wall Street Journal reported that Binance was facilitating Russian users' ability to move money abroad, despite widespread international sanctions. Bearish sentiment in the broader market has weighed down on tokens that may have been otherwise fueled by positive fundamentals. This comes as traders look to take profits on price movements instead of a buy -and -hold approach. Data shows XRP, among the world's largest tokens by market capitalization, has lost nearly all gains after Ripple Labs' landmark court ruling over the U .S. Securities and Exchange Commission in July. XRP exchanged hands at $0 .50 on Wednesday, down 14 % in the past week and 30 % over a 30 -day period. Price chart data shows the tokens hit a yearly high on July 20th, but Wednesday's prices are back to levels before the SEC ruling. Today's market updates come from CoinDesk Lilladezma, Amkar Gbole, and Shariah Malwa. Stay tuned for after the break when we'll take a look at the news from Australia and Thailand.
CoinDesk Podcast Network
A highlight from MARKETS DAILY: Crypto Update | Bitcoin Hovers Around $26K, Thailands New Pro-Crypto Prime Minister
"This episode of Market Staley is sponsored by Kraken. It's Wednesday, August 23rd, 2023, and this is Market Staley from CoinDesk. Hi, I'm Michelle Musso here with your crypto markets roundup. On today's show, we're talking Bitcoin, XRP, Thailand and more. And just a reminder, CoinDesk is a news source and does not provide investment advice. Bitcoin has dropped back below $26 ,000 as the market awaits developments from the central bankers meeting at Jackson Hole on Friday. The world's largest cryptocurrency by market value dropped just below the $26 ,000 mark on Wednesday, after trading in a tight range over the past 24 hours, hitting a weekly low of $25 ,500. The cryptocurrency rebounded slightly from the low but remains down 9 % over the last seven days. The head of digital asset strategy at Fundstrat wrote, It is possible that any semblance of dovishness from Jay Powell on Friday could help inspire a recovery. Continuing, Beyond that, we also have a potential ruling in the grayscale case to look forward to. The analysts added that they believe the market is closer to a local bottom rather than top, given the absence of industry -specific catalysts and a decline in liquidity. On Monday, we discussed that the past week saw an increase in the Ether -to -Bitcoin ratio. The Ether -Bitcoin ratio rose more than 2 % last week, contrasting with its record of taking losses during bouts of risk aversion. Still, options data tracked by Amberdata show a strong bearish outlook for Ether, with traders hedging against potential price weaknesses over a number of timeframes. Meanwhile, traders remain bullish on Bitcoin over the long run. The persistent bias for long -term BTC calls perhaps stems from the belief that the top cryptocurrency would be the first beneficiary of an eventual positive flip in the macroeconomic environment. Noelle Acheson, author of the Crypto is Macro Now newsletter, said, Bitcoin continues to be the macro asset for the crypto market and could also see some strong inflows as the macro environment shifts. Many large investors will continue to prefer Bitcoin exposure for its liquidity, market cap, and relative stability. Bitcoin's short -term holders, which tend to be sensitive to short -term price gyrations, are largely underwater on their coin holdings after the recent price slide, according to on -chain data. The head of digital assets in Merrick Solutions said the unrealized losses of short -term holders are one of the critical problems for the market right now. The real problem is the current fragile market set up for Bitcoin because short -term holders are underwater in both price and narrative. They said this in an email. BNB, a cryptocurrency closely linked to Binance, fell to its lowest in more than a year after a report regarding fresh risks over Russia sanctions added to already mounting regulatory and legal pressure on the crypto exchange. The token sank to its weakest level since June 2022's crypto market crash. It's since pared some of those losses down by 7 % over the past week. The latest decline happened after The Wall Street Journal reported that Binance was facilitating Russian users' ability to move money abroad, despite widespread international sanctions. Bearish sentiment in the broader market has weighed down on tokens that may have been otherwise fueled by positive fundamentals. This comes as traders look to take profits on price movements instead of a buy -and -hold approach. Data shows XRP, among the world's largest tokens by market capitalization, has lost nearly all gains after Ripple Labs' landmark court ruling over the U .S. Securities and Exchange Commission in July. XRP exchanged hands at $0 .50 on Wednesday, down 14 % in the past week and 30 % over a 30 -day period. Price chart data shows the tokens hit a yearly high on July 20th, but Wednesday's prices are back to levels before the SEC ruling. Today's market updates come from CoinDesk Lilladezma, Amkar Gbole, and Shariah Malwa. Stay tuned for after the break when we'll take a look at the news from Australia and Thailand.
Bloomberg Radio New York - Recording Feed
Monitor Show 00:00 08-23-2023 00:00
"Interactive brokers clients earn up to USD 4 .83 % on their uninvested instantly available cash balances rates subject to change visit ibkr .com slash interest rates to learn more conversation on the latest edition of the masters in business podcast subscribe on Apple Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts plus listen anytime on the Bloomberg business app and bloomberg .com broadcasting 24 hours a day at bloomberg .com and the Bloomberg Business Act this is Bloomberg radio This is Bloomberg Daybreak, Middle East and Africa, our top stories this morning. Mixed trading as we await Nvidia's results in Jay Powell's Jackson Hole. Elevated bond yields continue to cause concern as foreign investors ditch short Treasuries. -dated Meanwhile Chinese stocks failed to sustain Tuesday's bounce while the PBOC continues its battle to prop up the Yuan. Wall Street still sees plenty of room for the Chinese currency to fall. Commenzac steps up the pressure on staff to return to the office full -time as frustration grows on the reluctance of some workers to come back in. And Iran plans to keep raising oil production as backdoor diplomatic efforts with the US appear to be pressure easing on the Middle Eastern nation. It's got 8 a .m. across the emmer at 6 a .m.
Bloomberg Radio New York - Recording Feed
Monitor Show 06:00 08-21-2023 06:00
"Interactive Brokers charges USD margin loan rates from 5 .83 % to 6 .83%. Rated the lowest margin fees by Stockbrokers .com. Rates subject to change. Learn more at ibkr .com slash compare. Future of Law. Visit BloombergLaw .com. Up next, the latest on the tropical storm bearing down on Southern California. Plus, what will Chairman Powell say at Jackson Hole? Hour 2 of Bloomberg Daybreak starts right now. Broadcasting 24 hours a day at Bloomberg .com and the Bloomberg Business Act. This is Bloomberg Radio. From the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studios, this is Bloomberg Daybreak for Monday, August 21st. Coming up today. A rare tropical storm pounds Southern California with heavy rains damaging floods and mudslides. President Biden travels to Hawaii following those deadly wildfires. Donald Trump confirms he will not participate in this week's Republican presidential debate. And Wall Street braces for a key meeting by Jay Powell and central bankers. Denmark is donating American native 16 fighter jets to Ukraine. Plus, subway and bus fares in New York City went up over the weekend. I'm Michael Barr. More ahead. And I'm Dan Schwartzman. The Yankees continue their struggles as they've now lost eight in a row. I'll have that and more coming up in sports. That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak. On Bloomberg 1130 New York. Bloomberg 99 .1 Washington D .C. Bloomberg 106 .1 Boston. Bloomberg 960 San Francisco. Sirius XM 119. And around the world on BloombergRadio .com and via the Bloomberg Business Act. Good morning. I'm Nathan Hager. And I'm Karen Moscow. And U .S. stock index futures are on the rise this morning. S &P futures up half percent or 22 points. Now futures are down.
Bloomberg Radio New York - Recording Feed
Monitor Show 19:00 08-20-2023 19:00
"Wasn't as high as inflation. So people realize that. So it's not all about just do you have a job. It's, well, I'm working my tail off, but I can barely make ends meet. I can't put the same amount of food on the table for my family. I can't do the same things that I had before. That's where the pain point is, that inflation has raised prices more than it's raised wages. That is the former Fed Governor, Randy Kroszner, speaking with Bloomberg's Anne -Marie Horden. Thanks to our colleague, Rashad Salamat. Our three DBA starts right now. Broadcasting 24 hours a day at Bloomberg .com and the Bloomberg Business Act, this is Bloomberg Radio. This is Bloomberg Daybreak Asia for this Monday, August 21st in Hong Kong, Sunday, August 20th in New York. Coming up this hour, markets look ahead to the Jackson Hole symposium and Fed Chair Jay Powell's outlook for interest rates. China urges its banks to boost loans in support of a struggling economy, and negotiations are underway for high level talks between China and Australia. Tropical Storm Hillary will be making its way up through California in the coming hours. 87 % of the La Hainetown search complete. Still over 1 ,000 still unaccounted for. I'm Ed Baxter with Global News. Spain wins the Women's World Cup over England. I'm Dan Schwartzman. I'll have that story and more coming up in Bloomberg's boards. That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Asia. On Bloomberg 1130 New York, Bloomberg 99 .1 Washington, D .C., Bloomberg 106 .1 Boston, Bloomberg 960 San Francisco, Sirius XM 119, and around the world on BloombergRadio .com and via the Bloomberg Business Act. We're less than an hour away from trading in Tokyo, Sydney, and in Seoul. Hour two of the DBA radio program.
Bloomberg Radio New York - Recording Feed
Monitor Show 18:00 08-20-2023 18:00
"Sound on co -host Kaylee Lyons reporting from our Bloomberg 99 .1 newsroom in Washington and you can hear sound on weekdays 1 to 3 p .m. on Bloomberg radio and that does it for this edition of Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend join us again Monday morning 5 a .m. Wall Street time for the latest on markets overseas and the news you need to start your day I'm Tom Busby, stay with us. Top stories and global business headlines are coming up right now. Broadcasting 24 hours a day at Bloomberg .com and the Bloomberg Business Act. This is Bloomberg Radio. This is Bloomberg Daybreak Asia for this Monday August 21st in Hong Kong Sunday August 20th in New York. Coming up this hour Markets look ahead to the Jackson Hill Symposium and Fed Chair Jay Powell's outlook for interest rates China urges its banks to boost loans in support of a struggling economy Negotiations run away for high -level talks between China and Australia Tropical Storm Hillary will be making its way up through California in the coming hours 87 percent of La Hana Town's search complete still over 1 ,000 still unaccounted for. I'm Ed Baxter with Global News Spain wins the Women's World Cup over England. I'm Dan Schwartzman, I'll have that story and more coming up in Bloomberg Sports That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Asia on Bloomberg 1130 New York, Bloomberg 99 .1 Washington DC Bloomberg 106 .1 Boston, Bloomberg 960 San Francisco Sirius XM119 and around the world on BloombergRadio .com and via the Bloomberg Business Act It's a little past 6 p .m. on Wall Street as we get set for the dawn of a new trading week in Asia.
Bloomberg Radio New York - Recording Feed
Monitor Show 07:00 08-18-2023 07:00
"You're listening to Bloomberg Daybreak. I'm Amy Morris alongside Karen Moscow. It's 659 on Wall Street. Stay with us. Bloomberg Surveillance with Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz starts right now. Broadcasting 24 hours a day at Bloomberg .com and the Bloomberg Business Act. This is Bloomberg When Radio. people say this country's economy is in bad shape, I call hogwash to that. This economy is very strong. In fact, it's booming. There are some angles here fundamentally that provide ongoing support for the equity markets. It feels like a lot of investors have been chasing the trade. There is a what I call a Goldilocks scenario emerging where we can avoid recession. I would anticipate from Powell probably next week, Jackson Hole, from the Fed that they lean into a hawkish bias still. This is Bloomberg Surveillance with Tom Keane, Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. A year ago, Chairman Powell talked about pain. A year later, a lot of people in this US economy, the economists asking the question, what pain? Live from New York City this morning. Good morning, good morning. For our audience worldwide, this is Bloomberg Surveillance on TV and radio. Alongside Lisa Abramowitz, I'm Jonathan Farrow. Your equity market on the S &P 500. Three -day losing streak threatening to become four. We're negative here by 0 .2%. The official countdown to Chairman Powell and Jackson Hole has begun. Lisa, how does his comments this year compare to his comments from last year? I'm guessing that pain won't be mentioned quite as much as it was last year. Just a hunch, but we have gotten confirmation. In response to you, they basically came out and said, Jonathan Farrow asked whether we will hear from Chair Jay Powell and the answer is yes, he will come out and he will give a speech and he probably will give a short one that confirms a lot of what we've already heard. You don't expect to hear anything at 10 .05 Eastern Time a week today. I'm curious to see with a long -term neutral rate.
The Breakdown
Barney Frank Talks About the Surprise Shuttering of Signature Bank
"Let's start with that additional color around the shutdown of signature bank. Last week, Barney Frank, a board member at signature bank, and one of the sponsors of the famous Dodd Frank act sat down for a tell all interview with Barron's, which delved into the details of the final days for the bank. Frank explained that the Friday before the receivership, he was informed that the bank was quote bleeding deposits with around $12 billion leaving that day. On Saturday morning, bank management was in crisis mode, with Frank working the phones to talk to high ranking Democrat lawmakers and fed officials. Frank told Barron's that he called fed chairman Jay Powell and vice chairman for supervision, Michael Barr, as to whether emergency loans would be made available to the bank under section 13 three of the Federal Reserve act. Frank explained, quote, I told Powell, we're facing a bank run. We don't think we're the only ones. It's a classic case of a liquidity generated by some exogenous reason not related to the operation of the bank. Is that 13 three facility available? I think what Powell told me was, well, I'm not sure we hadn't thought about the facility yet. Certainly we're going to make the discount window fully available. Frank added that Powell told him Michael Barr is going to be taking the lead. Executives had also gone to the federal home loan bank for a loan and were told, quote, while there are so many runs on, we don't have enough money to do it all. By Sunday, signature was able to access the liquidity required via the discount window using agency MBS and treasuries as collateral. Initially, a concern as the bank held little acceptable collateral on its balance sheet. However, that on Sunday, the FDIC informed management that they would be putting the bank into receivership. Frank said that after they got that stabilized in the liquidity, quote, we were then surprised when they called up and said, we're coming over and shedding you down. When asked to comment on why he thought the bank was closed, Frank said, no question because of our prominent identification with crypto. I can't think of any other possibility, and like Sherlock Holmes says when you've eliminated every other possibility, what's left must be the one. The baron's article reiterated this point. If signature was in the regulatory crosshairs, they wrote because of its crypto business, and if there was a criminal probe and it then experienced a bank run, let's just say you can begin to see why regulators might not go out of their way to save it.
CoinDesk Podcast Network
Silicon Valley Bank Shut Down by State Regulators
"We just got news right before the show that the California department of financial protection and innovation shut down some common valley bank and then appointed the FDIC as a receiver. And now we have a proper bank failure in 2023. Ensured deposits will be fully accessible by Monday, they say. And then at TSC is going to try to make uninsured depositors as whole as possible. This is the 18th largest bank or was 18 largest bank in the U.S.. This is the largest bank failure since the Great Recession. Man, I love entropy. Zach, and he takes on this? Yeah, bank runs are crazy, all this is nuts. This is not so we're seeing this unfold in real time. You know, I think it's not just Peter Thiel, right? We saw pantera. We saw a bunch of other VC firms say, hey, portfolio companies, you might want to get your money out of Silicon Valley bank, go like real quick. Well, this was all unfolding Thursday night. So that may have been sort of the death knell, but it's certainly not what I think caused it. At its root, you know, you saw sort of Arthur Hayes tweeting. I think it was yesterday saying that, you know, Jay Powell, Jerome Powell, has broken the U.S. banking system. I guess arguably by curtailing sort of bond buying, right? So you have some of these macroeconomic ripples that are unfolding across. The banking sector is not just crypto in this instance. I think silver gate was rightly capturing headlines. We saw a little bit of grave dancing from the likes of Elizabeth Warren and other lawmakers who were long wary and skeptical of silver Gates involvement with crypto. Silicon Valley that's less of the story here. I think it's more tech startups rather than crypto startups. They certainly served a few crypto startups, but by and large, we're talking about one of the preeminent banks that we're serving an emerging class of web two startups in California and beyond. So yeah, pretty wild to see this really unfold against the backdrop of what had been some otherwise positive signs in the economy that were announced even earlier this morning.
CoinDesk Podcast Network
Bitcoin Hovers Around $22K As Fed's Powell Softens Tone
"Let's go to Washington. Our friend Jay pal was out here on his day two of congressional testimony. Softening his stance a little bit, and Bitcoin responding in kind. Let's hear what he had to say a bit earlier today. We have not made any decision about the march meeting. We're not going to do that until we see the additional data, larger point, though, is that we're not on a preset path, and that we will be guided by the incoming data and evolving outlook. So there it is, the orange coin, which is meant to subvert the influence of federal governments everywhere, is responding accordingly and is north of 22,000. Yeah, that's what the orange point does these days. It responds to Jay Powell's comments about the state of the economy. So I'm going to ask this a will get historical here. What do you think about Bitcoin in the macroeconomic context, especially in the wake of these comments from Jerome Powell up on Capitol Hill? Yeah, I mean, history kind of repeated itself, right? We always seen that Bitcoin has been moving in line with any pronouncement from the Federal Reserve, and you might think that that's a recent trend, but it really isn't. So since 2010 or so, we've seen the Federal Reserve has been moving into quantitative easing. It paused doing that after the Great Recession and sort of just moved into like this 0% interest rate regime where anyone could sort of boot up a business because really cheap to get credit. There's a lot of tech startups that got hot, Bitcoin grew up in that environment. It got hot in the environment of tech stocks going to the moon. And then since 2020, when the fed moved into this very aggressive posturing due to the COVID pandemic and then the post recession fears. We've seen bitcoins be basically locked up with tech stocks also, right? So whenever the fed says we're going to raise interest rates, Bitcoin goes down. It did go down Monday, tech stocks also go down whenever the fed says they're going to pause and maybe not increase as much. We see things rally. And that's why a lot of people right now think that .2 thousand Bitcoin mark is a little bullish. Some people think it's a bear trap because the fed has sort of been saying that we're not going to raise much more. We're about 5%. It's time to pause. But then all of a sudden, the fed can pivot, right? And we have seen this right now of Jerome Powell. They said in the earlier comments, hey, we're going to go up. We're going to go up another 50 bps and have 25 bps. While he pitted it, and now he's saying, hey, we're actually probably going to increase and go even more. And that is catching a lot of these socks off track
Bloomberg Radio New York
"jay powell" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Are all waiting for the fed chair Jay Powell to give remarks to our very own David Rubenstein at the economic club of Washington D.C. on television. If you're watching, you can see there's the two empty chairs that they should be filling in about ten or minutes enough from now. And we'll bring you that live when it happens. But in the meantime, let's figure out what the markets are doing and maybe it's even waiting for Jay Powell Abigail Doolittle is here to take us through it. I think that's exactly it. I think the markets are waiting for Jay Powell speaking to David Rubenstein to see exactly what comes out of that conversation, mainly will he change course. Now, I think that this is kind of hilarious because we did of course have this big jobs report on Friday. But the market bond traders, they've been so off course from J pal, because J Powell has been hawkish for many months, at least to my hearing. He's made it very clear that they're going higher. They're going to be smaller moves, but they're waiting for a higher terminal rate. And he's made no indication that they're going to be taking in rates earlier that they're nervous about inflation. So the idea that there's going to somehow be some sort of a more hawkish message today. Now, I think all he has to do is stay the course. He has rates exactly where they're supposed to be between the effective rate and the fed funds target rate. Well, I think I'm sort of with you on this because when you're talking about a term rate, I don't remember J pal giving us eternal rate. I thought it was a question of whether it's going to keep raising, and then this last news conference, he said, yes, we're going to raise some more, although he did say a couple at one point. Well, maybe people talk. Well, that ambiguity is his friend because policy making, it's probably just as much art as it is science, so the science would be a precise right where rate wears art is the shadow land in terms of the dot plot for the end of at the end of last year for 2023. The most amount of members were at just a little bit of 5. Right now, the high end on the fed futures is four 75. The effective rate is four 58 for 2023. It's just a little bit above 4%. So we're where we need to be. That ten year two year yield right around four 40, all he has to do. I mean, it's amazing that he's been able to steer the plane here right now without causing a crash of some sort with this sort of extreme situation coming into the pandemic out of the pandemic that to me is one criterion for success. And so I think that he just has to keep the message along, sort of rocking this car out of the rut. Yeah, it's where we need to be provided that four 7 5 5 5 one actually gets us where we need to go and the employment thing makes you worry because most people think if that keeps up, you're going to have inflation come back. Well, it's one report and I would also argue that it's CPI. It's inflation that we're actually looking at. So while we have a great jobs report, we also have oil in the commodity complex coming in. So from an inflation standpoint, it has not peaked up. We're actually very much looks like we have seen peak inflation. And I think that that's probably a little bit more what fed chair Jay Powell and company, what they are thinking about a bit more than as opposed to that one hot jobs report. I think that he can very easily speak to that in a way saying we're watching it, but it really hasn't changed our mind. We have been hawkish. We will remain hawkish
Bloomberg Radio New York
"jay powell" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"At Bloomberg quick tape. This is a Bloomberg business flash. From Bloomberg world headquarters, I'm Charlie pallett meta platform shares now down by 2.8% after ours, meta, which runs Facebook and Instagram, reported its first ever quarterly sales decline, citing advertisers shrinking budgets. Stocks rallied today treasury yields fell with the dollar on a fed Wednesday as Jay Powell said the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of rate increases at one point, while adding that officials will refrain from offering clear guidance on the magnitude of their next move, about 85% of S&P 500 companies advanced today the S&P up one O two up 2.6%. The Dow was up 436 by 1.4% NASDAQ up 469, a gain of 4.1%. Ten year yield 2.78%, the two year yield 2.99% got a spot gold, 1734 the ounce, West Texas and immediate crude up 2.4%, 97, a 26 a barrel on WTI. Again recapping ten new yield 2.78%, S&P advanced 102 points today up 2.6%. I'm Charlie that is a Bloomberg business flash. This is Bloomberg. Sound on with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg radio. We've been talking about the chip act now for 18 months. I've been saying over a year, I actually looked at that today 18 months in the making. So I guess we can call it history, being made, the yeas are 64, the nays are 33 and the
Bloomberg Radio New York
"jay powell" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"On to a 20 point gain right now. Bond yields are tumbling as investors parse a lot of economic data and fed chair Jay Powell's testimony before the House financial services committee. The S&P now down by 11, a drop of just about three tenths of 1%, the Dow is down 160 down 5 tenths of 1% while the NASDAQ composite index up by one tenth of 1%. Ten year yield now three zero 3% spot gold is down four tenths of 1%, 1830 the ounce, while West Texas intermediate crude down another 2.1%, one O three 99 a barrel on WTI. Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell is calling his commitment to curbing inflation unconditional. This was day two of Powell's semiannual congressional testimony before the House financial services committee. Our intent, of course, is to bring inflation down to 2% while preserving a strong labor market. As I've mentioned, that has become significantly more challenging with the events of the past few months, particularly the war, which is driving gas prices up and raising energy prices and also food prices and disrupting supply chains further. And again that ten year yield right now three O 3% among the names reporting app for the close of trading today will be FedEx, FedEx is banking on higher prices and the easing of disruptions related to a labor shortage to drive profit to a record when it does report earnings after the bal FedEx now down by 1.8%. Weekly, jobless claims running near a 5 month high a sign the labor market is cooling and Freddie Mac reports the average rate on a 30 year fixed mortgage is up again, rising last week to 5.81%. Briefly, Nike is leaving the Russian market entirely after suspending operations in March. One O two on Wall Street time now for the market drivers report with a focus on American depository receipts. Here she is Abigail Doolittle. A thanks, Charlie, and we've got lots happening in the world of ADRs, one of the big underperforming areas of the markets broadly speaking right now commodities that Bloomberg commodity index down 3.2% and four days in a row, the worst streak since the end of December. So as you can imagine, this is really dragging out a lot of the related ADRs, including BP, that energy ADR shedding more than 6% in two days. Bayer, the German conglomerate with its fertilizer unit, that stock is down at ADR is down 4% Rio tinto, the mining ADR down 8% into days, one bright spot though, Charlie, China tech ADRs, higher with yields plunging here in the U.S. overall, China, tech ADRs up 1.6%. All right, we thank you very much. Bloomberg's Abigail Doolittle following those ADRs for us. Again, recapping equities trading mix, the Dow, the S&P lower NASDAQ hire ten year yield three percent S&P down by .35%. I'm Charlie politics of Bloomberg business flash. This is balance and power with David Weston. I am optimistic that we will see some cooling inflation. I am not going to forecast exactly what the numbers will be and how fast. This is a time where we'll have some temporary inflation. Everybody's expecting it to come back down. Where the world of politics meets the world of business. Our schools aren't islands. They can't be safe if the community is not safe. It's odd job over time to make sure that we rebuild the foundation of the backbone of the American economy. We've given Weston on Bloomberg radio. The Supreme Court strikes down New York's restrictions on carrying concealed weapons, The White House keeps looking for some way to address inflation and get credit for it, and fed chair J pal wraps up a second day of testimony on Capitol Hill from the Bloomberg interactive brokerage center in New York, welcome to the second hour of bounce of power. I'm David Weston. Well, fed chair Jay Powell now has had his second day of testimony up on Capitol Hill this time in front of the house on exactly what's going on with
Bloomberg Radio New York
"jay powell" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Inflation is here We see consumers potentially about to get refund surprises on the negative So I think we're in an unstable world and the consumers trying to find the new normal and balance just like companies are Well how do we reconcile that with what we heard this week from fed chair Jay Powell He was asked a question about inflation and it affecting Americans who differently at different elements of the income spectrum And he said it was less about inflation affecting some people more than others but the issue was that people who were living paycheck to paycheck were now spending so much on gas so much on food that it was becoming an issue and it is an issue Explain that Yes Well here's what we see And there's a great stat from the financial health network that two thirds of Americans are not financially healthy And I can tell you in our business when I travel around the country and I visit our offices and I hear our consumers talk we serve Main Street America And I consistently hear that this tax refund is the most important check they get all year But it's already spent They're using it to pay bills and reduce debt We hear way too often that they're relying on payday lending or overdraft fees or other things just to get by and short term cash So on the ground in communities across this country where we operate we see every day our clients still struggling managing cash flow day to day And you guys are working on helping those individuals I'm curious about how that's going And I also do wonder in this macro environment and be it fed strategy or what the fed says how does that impact some of the business strategies that you've got out there Jeff and being able to implement them this year Yes absolutely And so two things that I'm thinking a lot about right now One is our launch of.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"jay powell" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Streaming on YouTube and it's gonna be a rough day when it's a swipe again 'cause I can't get in It's just one of those It's just you gotta be The fed has that kind of thing when you're kicking off their meeting Well that's what they're doing today I mean you know Jay Powell has of course you know from the 60 minutes interview we see that he has the terminal right behind him I know Of course he does Wonder if he has problem swiping it Anyway I'll get there So we do have the fed kicking off its two day meeting Big tech being a big drag again on the equity markets that jump in producer prices I guess making investors wonder all right so how inflation will maybe impact that fed decision tomorrow Yeah that's something that we are going to be talking about throughout the show including in just a couple of minutes Inflation jeopardizes the fed's goal for inclusive employment That's a question that we're asking today in Bloomberg business week Yeah exactly We know J Powell has been out there saying it has to be improvements across the board but we'll see whether or not having hot inflation makes it more difficult to keep that mandate We're also going to hear from the Uber CEO Yeah speaking of higher prices right Yeah exactly So we'll get to that And we've got the latest on COVID for Michael Dowling Presidency at northwell health They are a massive healthcare system in New York City in the New York area And what's key one year ago they that system administered the first COVID vaccine in the United States just 12 months ago Yeah it makes me think that we thought at that point I really did in a different place than we are today We're going to talk about that with Michael Dowling in a few minutes also the Bloomberg big take today It's all about Guild Education how to get rich sending low income workers to college A lot of questions about that Okay and also what happens when you live alongside the homeless for one remarkable woman you do something about it We're going to talk with the founder of street team movement so much to come Let's get to the market.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"jay powell" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"From Bloomberg's European headquarters in London I'm Tom McKenzie with this Bloomberg radio business flash optimism across the European markets this morning gains of almost 1% despite this hawkish turn from the fed governor Jay Powell in testimony talking about the risks to inflation And the expectations that the taper program by the fed will have to be sped up come December You're seeing gains of 1.4% here in the UK on the puts you 100 gaining more than 95 points the cacao is up more than 1% similar territory for the Dax and the footsie mib and gains at 1.3% over in Spain on the ibex In terms of how things are breaking down sector by sector it is travel and leisure that is at the top of the list despite the reporting that we've been doing on The White House preparing more curves to travel Japan as orell also ramping up its restrictions travel and leisure that's sector gaining more than 3% basic resources up also around that similar territory up 3% At the bottom the list you've got personal care and real estate but off only by a smidge in terms of your currencies Euro dollar is lower by tenth of a percent the Japanese yen is slightly higher by about three tenths and your U.S. tenure is currently at one 49 for that year The commodities space is firmly in focus with Brent's higher by 4% as we lead up to the OPEC plus meeting and whether or not oil producers decide to reduce their production and output That is the state of play across these markets about an hour and 20 minutes into the European.