35 Burst results for "Jay Powell"
"jay powell" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"At Bloomberg quick tape. This is a Bloomberg business flash. From Bloomberg world headquarters, I'm Charlie pallett meta platform shares now down by 2.8% after ours, meta, which runs Facebook and Instagram, reported its first ever quarterly sales decline, citing advertisers shrinking budgets. Stocks rallied today treasury yields fell with the dollar on a fed Wednesday as Jay Powell said the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of rate increases at one point, while adding that officials will refrain from offering clear guidance on the magnitude of their next move, about 85% of S&P 500 companies advanced today the S&P up one O two up 2.6%. The Dow was up 436 by 1.4% NASDAQ up 469, a gain of 4.1%. Ten year yield 2.78%, the two year yield 2.99% got a spot gold, 1734 the ounce, West Texas and immediate crude up 2.4%, 97, a 26 a barrel on WTI. Again recapping ten new yield 2.78%, S&P advanced 102 points today up 2.6%. I'm Charlie that is a Bloomberg business flash. This is Bloomberg. Sound on with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg radio. We've been talking about the chip act now for 18 months. I've been saying over a year, I actually looked at that today 18 months in the making. So I guess we can call it history, being made, the yeas are 64, the nays are 33 and the
"jay powell" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"On Bloomberg radio. This is a special edition of Bloomberg best to bring you a conversation from last week's ECB forum on central banking and sintra Portugal. I'm Francis LaCroix. This panel includes fed chair Jay Powell, is to be president Christine Lagarde and Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey. In this next part of our conversation, I ask governor Bailey if the volatility we're seeing in the global economies and markets is a sea change for the future. Let's hear what he had to say. I mean, I think first of all, we have to say there are unquestionably of course our task is to return to low inflation. But I think in we see this every day that fulfilling that task we're observing, certainly, what can turn out to be structural changes somewhere, I think, you know, I would say it's already getting that. So I think COVID has leaving a structural legacy on labor markets and the way they behave, which we're already beginning to see. I mean, I think sadly, the European security situation has changed. We hope it obviously doesn't persist, but it has changed, and that's affecting supply chains. It's affecting the resilience of the whole supply system. And you mentioned climate change francine. I mean, I would say that this is not because some people don't know so it's not some sort of diligent activity about central banks. The reason that we're not, you know, we're not in the lead on it. Clearly, but the reason we have to take it seriously is because it is affecting our world. And actually it will get worse. I mean, that's a sad fact of life. And we have to we have to, in a sense, understand that. And understand what effects it will happen and how we respond to it. So these structural changes are very important to balance. True power as these complexities are as these sensor shifting is slower growth, much lower growth and inevitable tradeoff on trying to deal with inflation. I saw I would say that if what we see, for example, is a re division of the world into competing geopolitical and economic camps in a reversal of globalization that certainly sounds like lower productivity and lower growth and in many parts of this side of that you see you see aging demographics so a shrinking workforce. And you see economies that are growing more slowly and whose workforces are not expanding. So that's certainly a possible outcome. I think probably to some extent it likely outcome. And in the short term can the economy can use economy actually deal with a possible onslaught of interest rate hikes. So the U.S. economy is actually in pretty strong shape. So if you look back a year, the U.S. economy grew more than 5 and a half percent. It was really the big reopening year. And so we had expected this year to be that growth would moderate to a more sustainable path. We also, of course, are raising interest rates in the aim of that is the slow growth down so that supply will have a chance to catch up. We hope that growth can still remain positive. But so if you look at the strength of the economy, households are in very strong financial shape, they've still got a lot of excess savings from forced saving from not being able to travel and things like that. And also for fiscal transfers. So households are overall, not every household, and not the ones at the lower end of the income spectrum, but overall in the same thing is true of businesses. Very, very low rates of default and things like that, lots of cash on the balance sheet. The labor market is tremendously strong, still averaging very, very high job growth per month. So overall, the U.S. economy is well positioned to withstand tighter monetary policy. We think. But is it automatically a tradeoff between fighting inflation or taking care of the economy? And how far are you willing to go with interest rate hikes? So I guess I'd say it this way. Our aim is to have growth moderate. It's this sort of a necessary adjustment that needs to happen. So that, again, supply can catch up. It could be supply of workers. It could be, it could be time for the supply chains to improve. So the sense of that is that if we can get right now supply and demand are really out of balance in many parts of the U.S. economy, labor market being a big example of that. We need to get them better in balance so that inflation can come down. And that's the aim of what we're doing. Now, we don't have precision tools. Obviously, monetary policy famously a blunt tool, that is our aim that is our intention. We think that there are pathways for us to achieve that to achieve the path back to 2% inflation. While still retaining a sustaining a strong labor market, we believe we can do that. That is our aim. There's no guarantee that we can do that. It's obviously something that's going to be quite challenging, and I would also say that the events of the last few months have made it significantly more challenging, thinking they are particularly of the war in Ukraine, which is added tremendously to inflationary pressures around food and energy commodities and agricultural chemicals and industrial chemicals and things like that. So it's gotten harder the pathways have gotten narrower. Nonetheless, that is our aim, and we believe that there are pathways to achieve that. President Lagarde, can you talk to us about that this fine balancing act for Europe? And what that means. But you know what I find extraordinary is that sort of ten, 15 minutes into this debate we haven't really used the word energy. And certainly in this part of the world, the energy shock that we have, we have suffered our suffering and probably will continue to suffer, as had a major impact. And I think this is not specific to Europe, but there is certainly a dependency of European countries and the Euro area is certainly a point in case to external
"jay powell" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"On to a 20 point gain right now. Bond yields are tumbling as investors parse a lot of economic data and fed chair Jay Powell's testimony before the House financial services committee. The S&P now down by 11, a drop of just about three tenths of 1%, the Dow is down 160 down 5 tenths of 1% while the NASDAQ composite index up by one tenth of 1%. Ten year yield now three zero 3% spot gold is down four tenths of 1%, 1830 the ounce, while West Texas intermediate crude down another 2.1%, one O three 99 a barrel on WTI. Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell is calling his commitment to curbing inflation unconditional. This was day two of Powell's semiannual congressional testimony before the House financial services committee. Our intent, of course, is to bring inflation down to 2% while preserving a strong labor market. As I've mentioned, that has become significantly more challenging with the events of the past few months, particularly the war, which is driving gas prices up and raising energy prices and also food prices and disrupting supply chains further. And again that ten year yield right now three O 3% among the names reporting app for the close of trading today will be FedEx, FedEx is banking on higher prices and the easing of disruptions related to a labor shortage to drive profit to a record when it does report earnings after the bal FedEx now down by 1.8%. Weekly, jobless claims running near a 5 month high a sign the labor market is cooling and Freddie Mac reports the average rate on a 30 year fixed mortgage is up again, rising last week to 5.81%. Briefly, Nike is leaving the Russian market entirely after suspending operations in March. One O two on Wall Street time now for the market drivers report with a focus on American depository receipts. Here she is Abigail Doolittle. A thanks, Charlie, and we've got lots happening in the world of ADRs, one of the big underperforming areas of the markets broadly speaking right now commodities that Bloomberg commodity index down 3.2% and four days in a row, the worst streak since the end of December. So as you can imagine, this is really dragging out a lot of the related ADRs, including BP, that energy ADR shedding more than 6% in two days. Bayer, the German conglomerate with its fertilizer unit, that stock is down at ADR is down 4% Rio tinto, the mining ADR down 8% into days, one bright spot though, Charlie, China tech ADRs, higher with yields plunging here in the U.S. overall, China, tech ADRs up 1.6%. All right, we thank you very much. Bloomberg's Abigail Doolittle following those ADRs for us. Again, recapping equities trading mix, the Dow, the S&P lower NASDAQ hire ten year yield three percent S&P down by .35%. I'm Charlie politics of Bloomberg business flash. This is balance and power with David Weston. I am optimistic that we will see some cooling inflation. I am not going to forecast exactly what the numbers will be and how fast. This is a time where we'll have some temporary inflation. Everybody's expecting it to come back down. Where the world of politics meets the world of business. Our schools aren't islands. They can't be safe if the community is not safe. It's odd job over time to make sure that we rebuild the foundation of the backbone of the American economy. We've given Weston on Bloomberg radio. The Supreme Court strikes down New York's restrictions on carrying concealed weapons, The White House keeps looking for some way to address inflation and get credit for it, and fed chair J pal wraps up a second day of testimony on Capitol Hill from the Bloomberg interactive brokerage center in New York, welcome to the second hour of bounce of power. I'm David Weston. Well, fed chair Jay Powell now has had his second day of testimony up on Capitol Hill this time in front of the house on exactly what's going on with
"jay powell" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Epic and creedy Gupta were live in the Bloomberg interactive broker studios in New York I want to go back to our conversation that we're having a little earlier because we did hear from fed chair Jay Powell he did say earlier in the day at this Wall Street Journal event That he made some kind of this is according to our live blog made some of the most forceful and hawkish comments that we've heard from him yet He repeatedly said the fed is going to get inflation back down to its 2% goal and won't stop until there's quote clear and convincing evidence that it's coming down He also said that the natural rate of unemployment is likely closer to 5% than the current 3.6% He'd like to see a labor market that's more in balance but there could be some quote pain involved in restoring price stability Yeah and you know what's so interesting to me is and I think I'm perhaps contrarian in this is that the supply chain issues still aren't healed He said that the minute the supply chain issues are ready maybe not the minute but that would actually help heal the process Those COVID lockdowns in China not helping Well speaking of COVID so called buy now pay later firms were pretty hot during COVID and increasingly pretty cold over the last year We saw a firm go public quickly rise to evaluation $46 billion Now it's fallen to just above $7 billion And then you saw the $29 billion acquisition of afterpay by block It's the company formerly known as square Block I still call it square all the time create it down about 70% from its highs over the last year Let's talk more with buy now pay later We're going to do that with Philip bellamont Cofounder and CEO of zilch It's a by now pay later service Phil it's good to have you with us How are you Hey come good news Yeah good Good to hear Good to hear from you What do you make of how investors are treating by now pay later firms at least in the public markets right now And why is now a good time to launch by now pay later two As you call it for zilch Well I mean maybe if I can install with a second question so really the way we see this is I mean gases up electrics up Everything is going up And you just go down to buy some groceries What use the cost you $200 is costing you $300 and some change you go fill up with gas you were looking at 60 bucks is costing you over a hundred now And the reality is you're faced with a decision right What do you do And ultimately what we've seen people traditionally look at is they use higher cost forms of credit or for instance revolving credit cards And I mean we've made no bones about this but the credit card model has been around since the 1950s It hasn't changed The only thing that's changed is of course Americans have a mass almost a $1 trillion of debt on credit card since then And some of this is not the end of the world right because it's at a zero balance And so that's a force for good The problem is the amount of money that's sitting in revolving at 20 to 30% interest rates It's costing Americans a 120 billion a year And so what we really are doing is we are bringing something to the market We've spent a lot of time with a big YouGov survey We've been in the market for the last 8 months really doing our research figuring out what resume with people And customers really want all the benefits of debit plus the benefits of credit role to one product and that's what we're giving them We'll we don't have a ton of time here so I want to make sure to get all these questions but you know when I see when I read about buy now pay later firms I think to myself how is this not a crisis happening right now Because if a consumer can't afford to pay for this up front how can they then afford to pay for it over time Yeah I suppose that would be an interesting question to ask of credit generally So really what we're doing is providing customers cash flow convenience And we're doing it for free Mostly what you find in revolving credit or high cost credit It's not necessarily the capital that customers can't afford to repair over time It's the servicing of the capital that's the problem That's what drives us into a debt spiral And so ultimately if you can if you can serve as the capital at zero cost customers can afford to actually use this tool to manage cash flow Rather than to for instance bridge a payday and then unfortunately the cost of servicing the capital drive them into downward spiral that they can't afford And that's exactly what we're bringing to the market And allowing people to just really remove all of these fees and interest that is typically levied on this product Phillip can I ask you a question from the business point of view It's clear that this is a trend that consumers are embracing whether or not it's healthier for the credit perspective or not as to as Tim was pointing out But I have to ask from a business point of view how does your company actually make money if you're getting rid of all these charges That's a great question So and second question earlier how do we think about B and P L one The problem really lies for us in this model in that it's become commoditized It's point of sale finance frankly It's an iteration on point of sale finance whereby the retailer amortizes the cost of the credit to the customer and really cool awesome businesses in the space really amazing.
"jay powell" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"As you heard from our headlines there a very good morning to you if you're tuning in from the Asia Pacific good day if you're listening elsewhere I'm Brian Curtis And just looking at what we can expect here in the markets today it is going to be probably a day of red numbers on the screens in the Asia Pacific We'll get the futures on that with Ed Baxter in a few moments Let's get right over now to Doug bass Doug prisoner who's looking at the market action Doug Hey Brian you've heard the term sleep on it right Well 24 hours ago the story was the rally that we had in the equity market that was of course after fed chair Jay Powell pushed back on the betting for super aggressive front loading of rate hikes Today I'm afraid that it was about fear over what tightening might mean for the economy and for stock evaluations overall It was interesting because BNP Paribas today was calling yesterday's rally a hallmark of a bear market Maybe there's more to come Certainly today's data points were a little concerning U.S. productivity fell in the first quarter by the most since 1947 and U.S. retail foot traffic tumbled last week This is according to Bloomberg analysis of mobile phone location data collected by safe graft It shows a decline of nearly 11% from last year not what you would expect during a reopening right And then there's the Bank of England The BOE raised rate some of that was expected But the bank also turned its focus on forecast for recession in 2023 Governor Andrew Bailey sang the British economy is already slowing because of a squeeze on consumer spending power You get to the U.S. you had weakness across the board NASDAQ comp down 5% Dow industrial average weaker by more than 3% and the Russell 2000 today was off about 4% We'll take another look at market action in 15 minutes Brian Thanks very much Well again our top story the sell off in U.S. equities Just yesterday the S&P 500 jumped 3% for the biggest rally in two years but today a reversal of fortune as the benchmark tumbled 3.6% The markets are struggling to navigate the fed's tightening cycle Gargi chauri is head of investment strategy at BlackRock She says unlike the fed the markets are indecisive I think that the market is trying to determine what is the most important factor going forward So for the fed it's very clear They are a single mandate fed right now They are only focused on inflation and they're telling us that Today's sell off wiped off $1.3 trillion of equity value The big unknown for markets really is the degree of a Federal Reserve monetary policy tightening Former vice fed chair Richard Clara saying that short term interest rates will need to rise to at least three and a half percent in order to rein in inflation He said expeditiously getting to neutral will not be enough This cycle but cloud has said that the fed might not have to raise rates to three and a half percent if reducing the balance sheet is a substantially bigger impact on financial conditions It's time four and a half minutes past the hour It's time for global news China's top leaders are warning against questioning the strategy on COVID zero in the country at Baxter has global news.
"jay powell" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Inflation is here We see consumers potentially about to get refund surprises on the negative So I think we're in an unstable world and the consumers trying to find the new normal and balance just like companies are Well how do we reconcile that with what we heard this week from fed chair Jay Powell He was asked a question about inflation and it affecting Americans who differently at different elements of the income spectrum And he said it was less about inflation affecting some people more than others but the issue was that people who were living paycheck to paycheck were now spending so much on gas so much on food that it was becoming an issue and it is an issue Explain that Yes Well here's what we see And there's a great stat from the financial health network that two thirds of Americans are not financially healthy And I can tell you in our business when I travel around the country and I visit our offices and I hear our consumers talk we serve Main Street America And I consistently hear that this tax refund is the most important check they get all year But it's already spent They're using it to pay bills and reduce debt We hear way too often that they're relying on payday lending or overdraft fees or other things just to get by and short term cash So on the ground in communities across this country where we operate we see every day our clients still struggling managing cash flow day to day And you guys are working on helping those individuals I'm curious about how that's going And I also do wonder in this macro environment and be it fed strategy or what the fed says how does that impact some of the business strategies that you've got out there Jeff and being able to implement them this year Yes absolutely And so two things that I'm thinking a lot about right now One is our launch of.
"jay powell" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"With other NATO allies to talk about all those Russian troops massing on the Ukraine border And the party's basically agreed to disagree at least for now Leaving prospects of a further invasion still up in the air which was part but only part of what drove oil prices up this week Here's IHS market share Dan Jurgen There's geopolitical anxiety feeding into the market on top of a tightening market that's coming with economic rebound Three big banks reported their earnings at the end of the week there's something about mixed bags JPMorgan reported record profits but disappointed a bit on trading and is adding to its cost City also came up short on trading in the midst of a major restructuring there And Wells Fargo said it's tepid loan growth in the fourth quarter should pick up this year Going beyond the banks the markets overall well they had a volatile week responding to the high inflation numbers the low retail sales numbers on Friday And the Tesla fed chair Jay Powell that reducing monetary policy support is now a certainty Stocks fell for the second week in a row with the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ both about three tenths of a percent While yields on the ten year climbed a 125 basis points ending the week at 1.78 that's the highest level since the pandemic hit To put this rather confusing week in perspective we welcome now bob diamond He's Atlas merchant capital founding partner in CEO and Joanne Feeney advisers capital management partner and portfolio manager So Joanne let me start with you Respect to equities in particular typically when the interest rates are going up that's not necessarily something all equities like The equities respond that way this week You know David and they've responded that way since folate fall When I think it became finally clear to investors that interest rates would have to go up given a level of inflation we're seeing the tightness in the labor markets And the slowness with which supply is coming back online And so yeah we certainly saw evaluations come back and some come down in some places more than others And we just don't know for how long that's going to go on which points to that big question that investors always face You try to time this market where you just hold on for the long haul So bob what about the fed trying to time bringing it back down again How risky is that Because the track record on the so called self landing is not a great one So David we talked about this When we talked in December the fed needs to begin moving As of today there's still very very easy ultra easy I would call it The balance sheet is still expanding There's still almost a 100 billion in security purchases each month And I think it's time that they get on with it So I think the sooner they begin this process of easing into an economy that has recovered and is growing and has a very very tight labor market the better At the same time we've got oma cron out there You've got the COVID virus And so you can't quite know where the economy is going So how big a risk is it that so called policy mistake stomping on the great break too fast and leading to dare I say it a recession Listen it is everyone has said who's been on already This is tricky It's not 5 minute rice to time this But I think the biggest mistake that the fed could make would be to delay too long beginning to get to neutral And I think David we've talked about this before and Joanne and I have talked about this But when the fed goes from ultra easy to neutral it's usually fine for the markets That's been the history We're not even close to neutral yet So when I say begin the actions what I'm talking about is getting closer to neutral If you look at the futures markets then they're expecting fed funds Not this year but at the end of 2023 fed funds will be one and a half to one and three quarters Neutral is maybe 2% two and a half percent And I would just bring up you know it kind of ages me and my experience on Wall Street but if you look at the experience in the early 80s when Volker had to really put the brakes on a short rate got to 15 to 20% So if we talk about getting short rates overnight fed funds back to 2% or two and a half percent I think that's what we should be aiming for You know and to that point bob you put it really in good context This is not the 80s right Short rates heading to 15% is very unlikely for that to be in our future So we're really looking at short rates in the two ish plus percent range And also this is a very different economy for where we were back then in the 70s and 80s when we had to deal with those oil embargoes and the slowdown in production This time the fed and least has a tailwind helping solving inflation problem in that more supply is going to be coming back online this year Just look at the semiconductor industry which is bringing new factories up and running and we'll be putting out chips starting midyear And that's going to help by bringing up supply that'll help close that gap between consumer demand which is incredibly strong and the gap in supply that we've been suffering That's what also helped to bring down inflation even as those interest rates go off Bob diamond and Joan fini will be staying with us as we turn to the specifics of the tech sector and.
"jay powell" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Streaming on YouTube and it's gonna be a rough day when it's a swipe again 'cause I can't get in It's just one of those It's just you gotta be The fed has that kind of thing when you're kicking off their meeting Well that's what they're doing today I mean you know Jay Powell has of course you know from the 60 minutes interview we see that he has the terminal right behind him I know Of course he does Wonder if he has problem swiping it Anyway I'll get there So we do have the fed kicking off its two day meeting Big tech being a big drag again on the equity markets that jump in producer prices I guess making investors wonder all right so how inflation will maybe impact that fed decision tomorrow Yeah that's something that we are going to be talking about throughout the show including in just a couple of minutes Inflation jeopardizes the fed's goal for inclusive employment That's a question that we're asking today in Bloomberg business week Yeah exactly We know J Powell has been out there saying it has to be improvements across the board but we'll see whether or not having hot inflation makes it more difficult to keep that mandate We're also going to hear from the Uber CEO Yeah speaking of higher prices right Yeah exactly So we'll get to that And we've got the latest on COVID for Michael Dowling Presidency at northwell health They are a massive healthcare system in New York City in the New York area And what's key one year ago they that system administered the first COVID vaccine in the United States just 12 months ago Yeah it makes me think that we thought at that point I really did in a different place than we are today We're going to talk about that with Michael Dowling in a few minutes also the Bloomberg big take today It's all about Guild Education how to get rich sending low income workers to college A lot of questions about that Okay and also what happens when you live alongside the homeless for one remarkable woman you do something about it We're going to talk with the founder of street team movement so much to come Let's get to the market.
"jay powell" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"From Bloomberg's European headquarters in London I'm Tom McKenzie with this Bloomberg radio business flash optimism across the European markets this morning gains of almost 1% despite this hawkish turn from the fed governor Jay Powell in testimony talking about the risks to inflation And the expectations that the taper program by the fed will have to be sped up come December You're seeing gains of 1.4% here in the UK on the puts you 100 gaining more than 95 points the cacao is up more than 1% similar territory for the Dax and the footsie mib and gains at 1.3% over in Spain on the ibex In terms of how things are breaking down sector by sector it is travel and leisure that is at the top of the list despite the reporting that we've been doing on The White House preparing more curves to travel Japan as orell also ramping up its restrictions travel and leisure that's sector gaining more than 3% basic resources up also around that similar territory up 3% At the bottom the list you've got personal care and real estate but off only by a smidge in terms of your currencies Euro dollar is lower by tenth of a percent the Japanese yen is slightly higher by about three tenths and your U.S. tenure is currently at one 49 for that year The commodities space is firmly in focus with Brent's higher by 4% as we lead up to the OPEC plus meeting and whether or not oil producers decide to reduce their production and output That is the state of play across these markets about an hour and 20 minutes into the European.
"jay powell" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Com the Bloomberg business at and at Bloomberg quick take This is a Bloomberg business lash One of the chief concerns in markets a rising rate of inflation certainly that was one of the stories in the U.S. on Friday where the 5 year break even topped at 20 year high We also heard from fed chair Jay Powell saying it's time to taper He expects the process to end sometime mid next year Though I think it's important to point out how bit stress it is not time to raise short term interest rates Although we have seen a lot of volatility on the shorter end of the yield curve ten year treasury right now at 45 basis points in the Tokyo session In terms of inflationary pressures let's talk about what's going on in crude oil WTI 84 20 here in the electronic session after rallying one and a half percent in the U.S. on Friday And if you look at the energy group right now in Tokyo up by more than 1% but the nikkei is down 9 tenths of 1% right now In Sydney ASX 200 being led higher by energy stocks the overall group is up about 1.6% and the ASX 200 is ahead by about 6 tenths of 1% In Seoul however the Cosby remains weak as a result of a drop in healthcare shares They are down about one point to 6% right now The cost be off about a tenth of 1% We're looking at WTI at 84 20 I mentioned so the story really is tied to an easing of travel restrictions as well as a slow recovery of a crude output here in the U.S. The shale producers really have failed to come back online in a meaningful way and also expectations for higher demand as we approach the holiday season The dollar flat against the majors we do have a stronger yen one 1360 against the greenback and the offshore Chinese currency now 6 spot 38 34 against the greenback Another look at market action in about 15 minutes Ed Baxter has global news from the Bloomberg 9 16 user in San Francisco Ed All right got your dog got China says it expects new COVID-19 infections will increase in coming days and the control areas may have to expand South Korea says it has reached its goal of fully vaccinating more than.
"jay powell" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Fauci on where we are in the process of getting a vaccine approved for children and I ask for his views on booster mixing and matching But first fed chair Jay Powell has the support that could win him a second term to lead the Central Bank More than half of the Republicans on the Senate banking committee are backing him But his most visible opponent is democratic senator Elizabeth Warren I caught up with senator Warren this week in Washington to find out why she is opposed to Jay Powell's renomination My view is he ends his term We put somebody else in place And I think the fed is going to be better off And I think our economy is going to be safer Okay somebody else in place Let's talk about who that somebody else might be Are you talking with a Wednesday giving them any suggestions I mean you've told me that you think Lil brained for example you've read some of her writings You've been impressed by her I'm not going to talk about private conversations You know my view on this is right now the question is Powell to nominate or not renominate and I am in the let's not do this Are there other democratic senators who are with you in that position We heard you at the hearings I didn't hear shared Brown take a position exactly Some Republicans have come out and said they support Jay Powell Are you hearing from some of your colleagues that they at least be open to resisting Jacob You know I never want to represent anybody else's point of view But I am not the only person who has been concerned about his approach to regulation You know and I just want to put this a little bit of context The way I think about this I think back to 2007.
"jay powell" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Fauci on where we are in the process of getting a vaccine approved for children and I ask for his views on booster mixing and matching But first fed chair Jay Powell has the support that could win him a second term to lead the Central Bank More than half of the Republicans on the Senate banking committee are backing him But his most visible opponent is democratic senator Elizabeth Warren I caught up with senator Warren this weekend in Washington to find out why she is opposed to Jay Powell's renomination My view is he ends his term We put somebody else in place And I think the fed is going to be better off and I think our economy is going to be safer Okay somebody else in place Let's talk about who that somebody else might be Are you talking with a Wednesday giving them any suggestions I mean you've told me that you think Leo brainard for example you've read some of her writings You've been impressed by her I'm not going to talk about private conversations You know my view on this is right now the question is Powell denominate or not renominate and I am in the let's not do this Are there other democratic senators who are with you in that position We heard you at the hearings I didn't hear shared Brown take a position exactly Some Republicans have come out and said they support Jay Powell Are you hearing from some of your colleagues that they at least be open to resisting Jacob You know I never want to represent anybody else's point of view But I am not the only person who has been concerned about his approach to regulation You know and I just want to put this a little bit of context The way I think about this I think back to 2007 2008.
Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates Steady, Says Tapering of Bond Buying Coming ‘Soon’
"So the fed yesterday avoided a shock to equities in. What's already been a week. September but will investors remained. Comfortable with the hawkish tilt as widely expected members pulled forward rate hikes expectations on the dot plot and fed chief. Jay powell telegraphed a tapering announcement at the next meeting in november. But it's worth pointing out. He said the same thing about this meeting the tapering Once it does happen is expected to end around mid twenty. Twenty twenty two. That's according to powell's comments and a off could occur after that but it's basically not going to be until twenty twenty three. At least that looks like the most likely timing for the start of rates judging by his comments and the dot plot.
Powell Says Fed Could Start Scaling Back Stimulus This Year
"What we're looking at jackson hole. Symposium underway in remarks at the jackson hole economic symposium fed chair. Jay powell said that the us economy has made quote clear progress toward maximum employment while adding that substantial slack remains in the labor market. Powell went on to say that the fed has seen more progress in economic growth. Uh suggesting that the fed may find it appropriate to withdraw to continue the taper to begin to taper. I should say In this year in twenty twenty one The chair also reaffirmed that even asset after asset purchases end are elevating holdings of securities will continue to continue to quote support accommodative financial
"jay powell" Discussed on Adventures in Finance: A Real Vision Podcast
"Yeah it's like it's it's gio fence it's you don't have access to it but the way talking of these new technologies one of the things. That is really interesting to me. That i've been looking into since i actually saw ralph talking about. It has been the european union emissions trading system this cap and trade system that we have in place In europe right now our emissions i can be traded. It's an interesting market row was ahead of the curve. On that is he has been on so many other things interesting piece today on real vision featuring liz semi and west gray a talking about this but from kind of a slightly cynical perspective trying to understand what the nuances are with. The complexities are When people are talking about this sort of utopian society that we're going to have where we're just gonna be able to trade trade emissions on every sort of ember of coal in the world. I had price that effectively. They're talking about exactly this issue in a clip from a show called An unfiltered contrarian take on the es industry. Let's take a look one of the terms that you brought up. And i did a little bit of research on it and that's this idea of greenwashing or basically faking it. Can you explain what greenwashing is why people should care in different examples of of you see this in the marketplace greenwashing is the term that the end customer uses whether their next or visor Haul out on espn strategy or an impact strategy for pretending to care of the environment but really not right or a for In one great example of it is canadian. Beck's by the canadian banks are some of the highest esp scoring companies in the world They have many. Es g products they're also the largest bankers of previously arctic oil and oil sands data. Some folks would say that they are firm Greenwashing affirm level going on there You know it could be the product itself You know making excuses to keep companies Or not it's the whole mass of consumer end consumer perception as to what's being put out there and buy investment firms related to product. So there you have this idea of greenwashing gaming the system claiming that basically every idea an entity is green or environmentally friendly pretending to care about the environment in effect when certain organizations do not. I thought that listen. He was just great here and she's just really smart and compelling intriguing on this and the thing that i thought that she said that was most interesting. Was that this term. Greenwashing is the term that the end customer said the folks on the buy side who were actually accumulating position these securities Really interesting that is something that the buyers of this on the buy side.
"jay powell" Discussed on Adventures in Finance: A Real Vision Podcast
"This notion of the surgery. People trading this week into jackson hole who who is who was moving capital in either direction ahead of this right now like what did they did. They find out yesterday to speculate about what's gonna come out of the chairman's melt you know tomorrow like so so what the move especially because it's always you know volumes are light and all that and so It's like it's very much like a noisy noiseless market. And i don't really take into account too much the price action and re too deeply into it but i will you know what i will say though is last week when we had you know the vix shoot up and all that kind of thing This peter were You know had this view that this happened when that happened when it happened. I had kind of I start to thinking of this theory in which capital is essentially going to be flowing into the united states from overseas markets. So this has been happening all year. So it's been happening. I out of japan depend like nikkei's flat on the year. It's been a horrible market and now and then china of course and then i think that what's the market that's next is going to be europe. You're going to see european Asset managers take prophets europe. Sooner very strong and ultimately moved begrudgingly into the united states. And you kind of saw. The price action You know last week. And then i was watching today to and you kind of saw it Today to where when you see the european cash market's close which is like around eleven am es eastern the dynamic of the market of like for example kind of changes thereafter. So there's duffy eleven heavily heavy like european influence right now in in us markets in equity markets. And so. it's kind of like you know if you want to look into it. You have to look into it through the perspective of european manager. That very what does that. What does that mean to you. And what does that perspective. What is it betoken. And how does that change the likely future trajectory of markets in your view. I think that it gets very interesting. So right now for once In a call it a decade. Where actually starting to see. I'm not saying. I'm not saying fundamentals. But we're starting to see at the index level regional You know Bifurcation or whatever they may be you're starting to see like not it's not an entire world global. Dm risk on equity markets are all green or or all right so last wednesday you had the cac. Forty was down over three percent. You know all of europe down asia was down on this and then later that day you saw. Spx peeking into the green..
"jay powell" Discussed on Adventures in Finance: A Real Vision Podcast
"Today we'll be wrapped in alongside with what may come or may not come from From sharon powell and we don't know how much of it is going to be wrapped in. But you know most people will probably tribute. If there's a market move after champion speaks should all of to the fed and not necessarily to thinking about like residual effects that people are holding off for now in reaction to this. You know to wait for the chairman to speak. So just keep in mind an important framework peter jump in and give us your thoughts. What are you looking at today. Well i think western just said on the surface might sound really simple but if you take it to the next level. I think what you're alluding to us is the idea that fiscal policy might not take first stance from a policy perspective and things might get shifted around a little bit and in a time. Where growth is kind of slowing. You're kind of setting stage for. I don't know left tail skew. So to say i'm not one of those people who was looking crash all the time. Stocks usually go out. But the thing is like you're in a kind of perfect storm environment. I think like consumer sentiment is dropping. Inflation is starting to come off a little bit at least growth. Looks like it's stored of stabilized in the medium-term and on top that you know talking about you know jackson hole you gotta do. You had a completely dovish fed last year. And this year they're talking about tapering the complete opposite. So it's gonna be an interesting response. I think western is perfectly right to call some things. What does that mean peter. You're you're active trader. Your daily trader tells. What does it mean when you see those reversals. Very sharp reversals. Typically a historically at least we think of monetary policy something that plays out on a longer timeframe arale famously says a row pallor founder and ceo for those new viewers who just joined us wral often says the macro is a monthly a time horizon. Things moving very quickly though yet. Things are moving quickly. I think you could probably take a look at what happened. I can't remember the year exactly was two thousand. Thirteen the taper tantrum If that's right that that. I think that might be a good proxy for gauging. What could happen in this kind of a risk environment. The thing about two thousand and thirteen was i think yet european europe start to slow down. It was around the time. Post a european crisis. Well things warrant. It wasn't smooth sailing as it was today back. Then or should i say pre coded so actually banned for people who are in markets in twenty thirteen and tell them what the taper tantrum was tantrum. A rapid a shift upward in bond yields meaning Yields rose dramatically prices foul on news that the fed was going to begin to withdraw liquidity withdraw accommodation from markets by. Yeah exactly and that basically given the post two thousand nine response to the great financial crisis scared the bejesus out of markets. And you had a little bit of a risk off trade now. The magnitude of that might not be met. But there's still that open window. I think that you have given basically the kind of the cloud. Because above our heads right now western. Jump in yeah i i. I.
The Federal Reserve Is Thinking About a Digital Dollar
"Maybe it's just me. I don't know but it kind of feels like the news center of gravity shifting back to the political and away from the economic so we are going to set that street right now. Genus new york times said he brady is at politico. Hey you do so gina. Let me start with you. If i could and the minutes of the federal reserve's most recent meeting which were out this week in which They said that they are ready to start talking. About talking about withdrawing support for this economy. I need you to help folks understand why that matters. What the effect might be right. So one important detail here is that it was a number of fed officials saying that they were thinking that if we saw rapid progress in the economy in the coming weeks and months that it would be appropriate to start a conversation about pulling back on by and so i think that the things synthesize are. It's a number. It's not all of them until we're not sure how. Widespread this agreement is and it seems like it. Probably doesn't include. Jay powell the fed chair. That's been important caveat. That said it's clear that there is some portion of the committee and substantial portion of the committee given the qualification number That is kind of getting ready to sort of dial back these bond purchase and that's really important because they have not only helping the economy but really been propping up asset prices and helping the stock market and so i think when you see that conversation start that it's very attuned to sort of hinting. It's coming hinting. It's coming and getting people really ready for it again. So that the bottom doesn't fall out from under market like we saw in the paper trim episode after the global financial crisis when benn banenky kind of intensity. We're going to talk about. They bring and markets went nuts. Basically trying to avoid a repeat
Powell, Yellen agree valuations in the market may be high
"Fed chair. Jay powell and treasury secretary janet yellen testified before the senate banking community day yesterday appearing before a house hearing both told lawmakers they still expect a strong rebound this year is the vaccine. Roll out expands. Economic activity picks up But the recovery is far from complete. They also agree that while valuations and parts of the market or high. That's no cause for alarm just
Stablecoins in the Hot Seat: Powell Calls Bitcoin a Substitute for Gold
"There was an absolute flurry of content and commentary yesterday around the place of bitcoin. Stable coins defy and the digital asset industry as a whole vis-a-vis. Us government regulation as well as how a digital dollar might shake that all up before we get into it. Let's at the terms of the debate. One of the competitors for this cycles top fudd is the government will ban it if it gets sufficiently threatening now to be clear banning depending on your sister could mean anything from an outright ban of use in holding too forceful seizure too limiting access to on and off ramps to the more benign from a commercial standpoint but no less threatening from a privacy standpoint integration of the full crypto infrastructure into the am l. kyc. Money surveillance apparatus. I've spent some time on this show looking into global versions where this fudd seems to be playing out in particular. We've been watching the evolving situation in india and nigeria india which seems gearing up for a bill that would have some sort of outright ban although at least one finance minister says that that's not the case and nigeria. Where the central bank of nigeria. I reiterated that banks should not be working with crypto users which they've then subsequently rolled back just a little bit either way however really what everyone has been focused on is the us particularly in the context of a new administration. The last administration had friends and foes alike when it came to bitcoin and crypto trump. Famously tweeted that he did not like bitcoin or crypto. But we didn't really take that seriously as a threat because it was so clearly about zuckerberg and libra mnuchin was a much bigger enemy. Probably wrote that text for trump's tweet even and clearly wanted to tighten the reins in his final act. He was trying to require exchanges to collect more information. When users transferred crypto to their own wallets on the flip side however there was brian brooks who was absolutely revolutionary at the office of the comptroller of the currency. The changes he oversaw are a huge reason. Why so many big institutions are now playing in this space. Why so many big traditional banks feel like they have to race to catch up to allow people to offer their customers crypto services however as we know from physics every action has a reaction and to some extent one reason why observers are so keenly watching the biden administration is to see how much they're going to respond or try to walk back with brooks in the occ changed on top of that. As the biden administration has come to power the price and volume around bitcoin stable coins and the rest of the digital asset industries have made them much more on ignore -able last time joe biden was in office. Bitcoin is about four hundred and thirty bucks. Now it's been over fifty thousand dollars for sixteen days in a row tether was barely out of diapers now. It has a market supply above forty billion in his doing upwards of one hundred billion dollars in volume per day combined with us dc. And you've got over. Fifty billion dollars of usd approximates there so lot more is at stake with that. People have been watching. Two things has come in and what they're saying on the who has come inside. Janet yellen is back for another round although this time is treasury secretary rather than as he chair gary genzer to is back. Although this time is as he c- chair. Instead of cftc chair of these two there is much more optimism around gessler who has done a pretty fair bit of work to understand where the crypto industry is coming from even teaching a course at mit about bitcoin and blockchain. And of course we have someone who still around in the form. Of jay powell. The federal reserve chairman. His ex factor. And all these discussions is the potential of a central bank digital currency a digital dollar. That could potentially shift the us's relationship with these projects now in terms of what we've seen these actors say so far over the last few months up until now it's been pretty standard fare one part. There's a lot of exciting potential here. One part we have to protect investors though and one part but it's also used by criminals over the last couple of days however we've gotten both comments and news that could shift as into our next phase of understanding what the us is relationship with. Bitcoin stable coins and other digital assets is going to look going forward. So let's talk about powell speaking about cdc's and cryptos at a bank for international settlements panel yesterday. Let's talk about the announcement of digital dollar prototypes coming this summer. And let's talk about new draft fat. If guidelines around cryptocurrencies. I up powell. Did a session yesterday with leaders from the bank for international settlements including augustine carstens. We talked about last week. He was asked about crypto currencies. And whether he saw them as a threat. And here's what he said. We call them crypto assets. You know. they're they're highly volatile. See bitcoin and therefore not real useful as a store of value in there not backed by anything. They're more of an asset for speculation. So they're also not particularly in use as a means of payment. It's more speculative asset. That's it's essentially a substitute for gold rather than for the dollar. And i think with crypto acids the the the public needs to understand the risks. The principle thing is there's the volatility there's also the outsized energy requirements requirement for for mining. And the fact that they're not backed by anything so let's break out these three reasons that he wasn't particularly impressed by cryptos. I this idea of volatility or that. It's just an asset for speculation. Basically he's dismissing bitcoin and any other crypto as something that he does not have to stress about or really factor into his consideration around global monetary competition while many. Bitcoin is grabbed onto the essentially a substitute for gold piece as a great tweet and knocked to the gold bugs. Who they're trying to convert or at least undermined powell was saying this more. Like a giant shooing away. A fly gold is to him clearly. Irrelevant an unimportant antiquated part of the fiat system that he sits at the helm of in that way a substitute for that thing does not present a threat
Fed Chair Powell says inflation won't be a problem
"The dow gave up almost one percent the s. and p. fell nearly eight tenths percent and the nasdaq lost. One and one tenth percent fed chair. Jay powell says he expects some prices to rise this year but he told bombmakers on capitol hill that he doesn't expect any inflation to be particularly large or persistent. microsoft is
This part of the bond market has fallen into bear territory, based on 1 measure
"Number of the day on this Thursday. Is 1.75. Technically 1.753 that is in percent. It's the high point of the yield on the 10 year Treasury note today. And yes, we usually do give you that at a different point in the program. But we lead with it today because of what feds here. Jay Powell said yesterday that he and his colleagues aren't all that worried about inflation actually might get a little bit of it. Some spikes here and there. But it's not going to become a thing and the bond market today said Yeah, j no man. I think with the bond market is saying is, we don't quite agree that these air going to be completely transitory moves and we do see inflation components along with the growth Victoria Fernandez there, she said. Cross mark Global Investments and if the bond market is right, and the Fed is wrong, and inflation does become a thing. And Mr Palin company have to raise rates perhaps significantly. And mortgages get more expensive car loans get more expensive. All that stuff you need to borrow money to pay for. And then the idea of the Fed, maybe not being entirely control in control. Well, that's just not good. If you've lost confidence that the Federal Reserve actually has a handle on things, then you're very uncertain as to what the market is going to do and uncertainty as we know. Well. There be dragons right?
Turning an economic corner?
"So let us test at that premise. Shall we my vague sense. That maybe possibly kinda. Somehow we hope fingers crossed. We are on the men economically genus. Malik is it. The new york times during the holman is a bloomberg everybody. I got so Gina we're gonna save the prognostication thing for the end of our segment here. But i do feel like we have to spend some time on reserve jay powell and inflation. Mr powell spent most of his press conference on wednesday. I guess it was trying to deflect or beat back questions about inflation where the federal open market committee thinks. It's going how worried he is about it. He spent a lot of time saying in essence. We're not worried about it and if it happens we got it. The bond market on the other hand in the form of rising yields on the ten year treasury note said. Yeah no. i don't actually think that's right jay. We're a little worried What is going on. So i think that there is a real gap in timing here so i think what we're seeing in the ten year treasury note is that investors are both becoming confident that we're gonna see a little bit more inflation but also becoming confident that we're gonna see more growth. And so that's really what's moving that up but when you look at inflation expectations in the market. They moved up but they've really moved up sharply for term and then they're a little bit less pronounced in the longer term. And i think that's what people like to talking about when they say that we're not so worried about inflation in the longer term. You know there's a big difference from the fed's perspective between a jump up prices this year which they broadly expect and lasting inflation that becomes a problem down the road which they do not expect at this point. George let me ask you this though. Is it possible. And we heard a lot of this. You know back in the beginning of the pandemic and and when the recession was actually at its worst yourself into recession. Consumer expectations are a key thing. Can you talk yourself into consumers expecting inflation. Is that a thing. Do you think possibly what you can't talk yourself into is that consumers will want to spend at a certain time. So that's what a lot of retail chiefs are just hoping that even though what this week with retail sales is that they were down in the month of february a lot of the speculation was that we just have bad weather across the us. That is more of a blip compared to what the reality is going forward is more so thinking that that surge that we january will keep going. That consumers really will spin on that pent-up demand that everyone's kind of talking about in the retail world and then that will help Lift the economy less thing on on a routine yields gina. And then we'll move on the thing about it is that money will get more expensive right and then that could have conceivably a dampening effect win. Everybody's so ready to spend and go and travel and just do you know right and that absolutely something that fed is paying attention to and they've been very clear that if they see rates move up so much that they caused disorderly trading conditions in the treasury market so basically things get messy or be. They actually move up high enough to actually way against the feds goals and keep the economy from recovering than the feds gonna do something about that. But for the near term you know as long as they stay contained and sort of move up but not irrationally. I think what we're gonna see is a steady impatient fed. That just kind of you know watches. It talks about it a little bit but doesn't get to panicked values the new going. Yeah you know what we'll say. Okay anyway. sorry so jordan. Let us get to the retail. Chief you've been doing a bunch of reporting on what retail ceos are thinking once this you know trillion and a half perhaps a little bit more of of money that's on the sidelines gets going. How are they thinking about the after times in terms of how they're gonna handle that so when it comes to the time line the after times they expect happening in the second half of two thousand twenty one. So we're talking about the summertime that vaccinations were really be widespread and a lot of the ceo's. I'm speaking to operate the stores in the mall. So their idea is that the so called revenge spending will take place the fact that the ideas that customers revenge pending prevent spending. Yes something we saw accion. china ones. That government started lifting some restrictions last spring idea that people are tired of just you know shopping online in their want to go back out into the mall in like social gatherings in they're going to spend all the money that they've been saving up and so this kind of ideal yeah the revenge ending you hear it from ceo's of jack's which owns on to j. maxx marshalls on some other retail chiefs of use this phrase but the ideas like we have to wait and see. That's still something that don't know is going to occur but it's something that stores like kohl's forecasted for the second half that sales would definitely be stronger later this year.
Fed sees stronger economy and higher inflation, but no rate hikes
"Federal reserve bolstered markets yesterday ramping up expectations for economic growth and indicating no interest rate hikes. Likely through twenty twenty three. Here's chairman jay powell in wednesday's virtual press conference today. The fomc kept interest rates near zero and maintained are sizable asset purchases. These measures along with our strong guidance on interest rates and on our balance sheet will ensure that monetary policy will continue to deliver powerful support to the economy until the recovery is complete. The dow closed above thirty three thousand for the first time on this good news. The fed is projecting six and a half percent. Gdp growth in this year as well as an unemployment rate closer to four point five percent investors. Were watching this forecast really closely anticipating how the fed would balance expected growth as the economy reopened more broadly with fears of inflation. It's a bit of a tightrope walk.
We know what Jay Powell is thinking
"The way it works on the days. The fed wraps up. Its big meetings is the jay powell comes out. He reads the official statement. What the fed is thinking about the overall economy since its last meeting where the economy might be going and where interest rates might be headed and then he opened it up for questions business and reporters being detail oriented bunch can get kind of weedy in those questions which lucky for you is where we come in. There were when all was said and done to count them to messages. The pal wanted to make sure everybody got at today's back and forth message one all the talk about inflation. I'm paraphrasing here. But basically he said come on. Cut it out talking about inflation is one thing actually. Having inflation run about two percent is the real thing no seriously cut it out over the years. We've we've talked about two percent inflation goal but we haven't achieved it. So i i would say we'd like to perform. That's what we'd really like to do. Is to get inflation moderately above two percent again. I was paraphrasing message number. Two where the fed thinks. This economy might be goin'. The state of the economy in two or three years is highly uncertain. So there you go. Jay powell and what he's thinking in. Okay yeah fine. It was seventy words. I counted
New Record Highs as Powell Reassures the Market
"Does the market finally. Believe jay powell. Now if you watch us yesterday we asked why no one seems to believe the fed chief when he says rate hikes aren't coming anytime soon but today he couldn't have been clearer powell saying the fed isn't even thinking about thinking about hiking rates until twenty twenty four at the earliest and when they do finally move the market will have ample warning his comments. Reigniting the record rally with the dow. Snp closing at all time high. So does this mean really say it all all right just to reiterate. This is obviously the deepfake. Does it meaning ring. True guy a love. The mimi's shifts are my favorite. And i i guess the answer going back to last night it depends on what market you're talking about. The stock market absolutely believes him. And you know i. I'm somewhat hesitant to say it. But that's something you know. Tim and karen and steven been saying for a long time. Don't fight these guys in the stock market continues on. Its merry way the flip side of that coin. Is you know. Ten year yields are an indication. The bond market doesn't believe him because here we are at north of one point six percent and the ten year so one market does. The other market doesn't right now the. Us equity market is winning and for the purposes of that. Show our show tonight. That's probably good enough at the same time when race. Get high enough tim. We've seen it in the past when they touch six six seven which they did this morning when they go towards one seven The markets have a little bit of a tantrum so even though the bond market may not believe jay powell eventually the stock market's take the lead to the bond market. So the two are back intertwined. So what what do you think the answer at this. Point is jay powell making abundantly clear and clear to the markets market participants. That there is no intention on raising rates until not even forecasted economic metrics come true but they actually have to see it in the present very backward looking very subjective. We've been. Rick rolled twice this week on fast money. So there's a lot going on. And i think you have a case here where also the concept of the the absolute level of of bond yields on the ten year. What point are are equities in trouble. And i think that's maybe a bigger debate on some level because we just don't know i think the conversation that The fed may have lost control of the long end of the curve. Is the right one to have I think from from fed funds obviously out to five or six years. It's pretty clear that Today's action tells you that the fed is able to job. Here's something else about today. People aren't really talking about. They're out there saying they're going to continue to buy at least eighty billion treasuries and forty billion mortgage backs. At least so again the size of the bond tapering Is something that's also really tough to understand especially when the fed really upgraded the economy Tells you that four and a half percent unemployment rate by the end of twenty twenty one From not terribly far off the record lows that we you know of all time that we went into the pandemic with his still not good. Enough so let. The fed was very clear today. I'm most troubled by vicks. That's got a one thousand nine handle honestly fell eight percent and the volatility. This low tells me equities actually should be a little bit weary in the next couple of days. We're pre pandemic levels when it comes to the vix karen on what did you make it today and does it. Change your view on the markets. Well i'm always long. But i just have this image of of j. palace saying you know what i've taken the bull market hostage. I'm not gonna hurt the bull market in the bond market yelling electable market. Go and then. Powell says if anybody makes a sudden move the market dies and i think that's sort of a standoff that he's trying to reach with the bond market right we saw briefly would happen last month in a lot of weird things the mark you got a lot of sudden movements and the stock market really didn't like that at all but you know tiven guy said he couldn't have been more clear about how dovish he is now. I don't know if the data will force him to do something earlier he did. Say we're not gonna do it until the data makes us do it but if we start to see data change well then we'll have to think all right. He could be made to do it sooner. i don't really know i don't. It wasn't so shocking to me that the general rhetoric. I don't think it was so shocking to anyone but good for banks good for. I guess it was no giants surprise. More dovish than i thought but certainly we all thought that he was dovish going in. I had actually. I want to hear what he has to say about the supplemental leverage ratio. that's important for banks but he punted on that and rice and a couple of days. What he has to say about that is he. Did you say yeah twice. They've made it very clear he wasn't gonna say anything they're gonna say something in a couple of weeks and he's not gonna say anything about it anytime
Another Body Blow For Stocks as Jay Powell Sends Yields Spiking
"The tech trade continues to unwind. There's another big move in. The bond market stops all the major averages falling more than one percent led by a big selloff in tech. The nasdaq wiping out. All of its gains for the year the next thing its biggest three day drop since early september at the center of the selling today. Jay powell the fed chair saying they are going to stay on the sidelines. Even as rates
Powell inflation comments send US stocks and bonds lower
"Fed chair Jay Powell underway. Markets by refraining from pushing back more forcefully against the recent spike in treasury yields s and P down 51
Fed Holds Policy Steady as Economy Stumbles
"Learn a bit more about what we got from the Fed, joining us. Kathleen Hays, Global economics and policy editor at Bloomberg News. She's here in our New York City bureau, along with Dave Wilson, stock cetera Bloomberg News on the remote access from New Jersey. So Kathleen, I feel like steady, she goes, We know pretty much what we expected from the Fed what we expected, and that's going to be very reassuring to the markets. Because there has been there been comments made in the last say two or three months by a handful of Fed officials that depending on the economy, they could see that that's starting to taper its bond purchases in the second half of this year. So what they said today I think, Let me grab another headline here. That is very important. The Fed repeats. His policy statement that it's buys its its bond buys will continue until quote substantial further progress and I'll add to that headline has been made because this is language. They've added recently to underscore that they want to see not just the moderating economy and job market they mentioned which were what you were just reading from the headlines. They want to see not just inflation, starting to move higher. They want to see inflation at 2% and above. They want to see Ah lot better job growth. They want to see claims coming down and Kathleen. They're willing to let it run a little bit of hot. We've heard this a lot from Jay Powell and company that because because they want to see and make sure that the economy gets back on a firm, two things here number one you got left around. Hot, I think is the idea to ever even have a chance in wrecked and you know where. To get inflation above 2% H e double toothpicks is there you go, baby. And then the second thing is, you know something they even added. It's a small thing, but it means a lot. I think when they said that the economy's path will depend significantly, they said, not just on the crown of fire itself, but also on progress with inoculations. That's another word for vaccinations, right? So they're very hopeful as many people are that the vaccine rollout will go quickly. When I spoke to Lord investors, President Clinton Kansas City Fed A couple Excuse me. Cleveland Fed Sorry, Loretta story yesterday on straight there you go on now two powerful women there don't want that. They're fed banks mixed up. But she said she thinks by the third quarter will have not full vaccination, but so much of the population will have it that that's why we're going to start seeing a really strong rebound. To the economy at the press conference, J pal, That's where two be listening for I think one more interesting thing I've been thinking about the last couple of days. If we start seeing that strong rebound, and there's all this like another, maybe $2 trillion of stimulus being debated, you know, one of you will have in the middle here is Janet Yellen and she has said Right now, you gotta act big. You gotta act now. But I think this is a very interesting question that Republicans will probably raise. Look over getting ready for a big rebound. Do we really need to spend that much now? I hope that's another question. A J. Pollock. It's asked today
Letting the economy run hot
"Begin today with some of the cross-currents swirling around in this economy right now. The pandemic of course a relief bill or not the labor market and jobs and what in a very macro sense the prescriptions to fix that have been from people whose job it is to fix that we talked about it a little bit last friday with from the washington post. There's been a sea change in washington. Trump was part of it so the federal reserve and believing that we should run the economy hat so running. Connie hot means that we're pushing up against the boundaries of what we call full employment running a hot economy. Means people have jobs at poly economics at new college in florida. The people who benefit most from hough economy are folks that the low end of the wage distribution where it sounds like the direction one would want to be headed and in fact is what fed chair. Jerome powell says all the time however comma concern is that good. Economic environment for individuals comes at a cost in terms of higher inflation. Terrorists and cleared teaches economics. George washington university. The thing is that worry about inflation just isn't happening even as hot as this economy was running before the pandemic with unemployment last january at a relatively microscopic three point six percent no inflation to speak of at all so we've learned that we can have potentially a much lower unemployment rate than what people had thought would bring on inflation. Which is why running the economy hot is kind of a change in perspective. Jay powell i'm sure we'll talk about that idea if not use the actual words tomorrow as he wraps up the feds two day
Economic recovery: one step forward, several steps back
"A big day. This was for the two people who will arguably be running this economy for the next number of years i speak here of course number one. A fisherman jay powell who did an online thing at princeton today in which he said among many other things now is not the time to exit. Allow to translates. If i might that is fed. Speak for we're going to keep on propping up this economy with low interest rates for as long as we have to and the other guy the one who's going to be in charge of this economy in six days said i see your interest rates jay and i will raise you one point nine trillion dollars. President biden is rolling out his economic relief. Plan tonight another fourteen hundred dollars in checks to individuals more unemployment assistance billions for vaccines and testing. Tracing all the stuff we all kinda thought would be in there and however much does pass the new congress. It is not going to come a moment too soon. Because this being thursday we got new numbers for initial unemployment claims this morning a big spike backup to almost a million people who lost their jobs last week and that comes as some new research from the federal reserve shows. The unemployment rate for this economies highest paid workers has fallen down underneath five percent. While for the lowest paid workers. We have it's as high as twenty percents marketplace's jasmine guy gets his gone. The numbers paint. What economists have called case shaped recovery. Things are improving for the better off and getting worse for the rest. Paul iverson an analyst at the university of iowa's labor center says there are long term ramifications to this people that were already in a precarious position that were one paycheck away from disaster. Now find themselves without that paycheck and so disasters the result industries like hospitality which tend to be low wage and employ more black and latino have been particularly hard hit by the pandemic manet. Yanko is an economist. At the university of michigan issue of very very different levels of unemployment in different sectors of the economy is not going to go away until we allow our restaurants and hotels to near full capacity in yesterday. Speech federal reserve governor brainerd. The need for urgent economic policy to help millions of unemployed americans travel logan an economist at ohio state university agrees we do need to support the income of the workers. Take uley those who are indeed high contact service industries working reductions than ours and now facing increasing and prolonged unemployment but he also says it conomic recovery hinges on the success of the vaccine rollout jasmine garst for
"jay powell" Discussed on KQED Radio
"Venture, Jay Powell said a bunch of stuff today about this economy what Congress auto maybe should be doing about it. And what the next 4 to 5 months are gonna be like the way he sees it. The case for fiscal policy right now is is very, very strong, and I think that is Widely understood. Fiscal policy, of course, is Congress and the White House, deciding to spend money or, you know not. But with the expiration of unemployment benefits, some of the unemployment benefits the expiration of eviction moratoriums with the virus spreading the way it is. There's a need for households and businesses to have have fiscal support. And I do think that again. And I think that is widely understood. He keeps using that word. Understood. I'm not sure it means what he thinks Congress. Thinks it means Of course, it's the rise in virus cases. The Fed chair says. That is really running this economy. The general expectation is you're seeing some slowing now and you'll see it. The first quarter could well be what we said. Is that coming months are gonna be challenging. First quarter will will certainly show significant effects from this, but at the same time people are getting vaccinated. Now they're getting vaccinated and by the end of the first quarter into the second quarter You're going to be seeing significant numbers of people vaccinated. And so then what will be how will that play in the economic activity? Well, here is the skinny from the guy running America's Central Bank. Second half of next year is when things start to start getting back to normal. Mr Powell mentioned retail sales in his press conference today to numbers out this morning show. They fell a bit more than 1% in November, which matters Is that most likely includes the first wave of holiday shopping and retailers are doing what they can to encourage us to keep on buying. Walmart, for instance, just announced its deadline for free shipping to get there before Christmas. It's going to be December. 21st is their deadline, which I don't know..
"jay powell" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Thing. I think you moved. I got a few moves. I know you'll like shaking all over. Remembered. Business Week. Movers and shakers shaken, not stuff on Bloomberg Radio. All right? Yeah. Time tickle a bit of a deeper dive into today's trade on this fed Wednesday. Carol Master along with Tim Stenkovic, both of us working from home got to get ready for whatever kind of snow comes our way. Let's do a bit of a deeper dive here because we were certainly glued to, obviously what the Fed chairman had to say in that press conference, Charlie Breaking down this final numbers s and P 502 110 names higher in the S and P 500 today 295 Lower one and change and if I look at those major industry groups, 12345 or higher, six were lower. Consumer discretionary at the top of the pack up 1% bottom of the pack Those utilities name's Tim just at about 11%, but we did see a little bit of movement on the Fed is just a hair just a hair, And it also seems like investors were more optimistic. In the sense of getting this stimulus package that seems to be what is moving the market more so That anything we heard from from Jay Powell. All right, And let's see what Sarah Pontiac has to say about that. She is our Bloomberg News Cross asset reporter. Sarah Come on in, You know, an interesting day. It was a Fed Day. What's your takeaway? Because he you know the chief Jay Powell did talk about asset prices. He did talk about asset prices, and that's really what caught my attention. When it comes down to what the Fed did the feds pretty much did what they were expected to do. They left the confidence in the size of their quantitative easing program. Unchanged at the same time. We now see that five members of the feds do you predict a Fed hike in 2023 so still very, very far away five members that up before the prior meeting still, that's very far. Are away and not the majority of members on Powell, when asked about outside prices commented on the stock market, and he essentially said that the PE ratio if you just look at price relative to earnings It's not very relevant anymore because in this standings with bond yields so extraordinarily low, you really have to put it in comparison by looking at Daniel's as well, and this is actually a model that's come to be known. As the said, model. You look at Price earnings ratio. You flip it, so it's called earnings field. So you have instead of P over each of you overpay. Then he'd have tracked out that bond yield. Well, right now we still have the spread of 2.5% in favor of equities. You compare that to the dot com bubble, even though You look at plain valuations. You might say that now, as then it looks a little bit similar. We're getting to the very high, very expensive levels. Well back then, Bonds yielded more than the earning deal for the S and P 500. So It's a far cry from where we stood. Then if you do take Daniels into account One thing that was surprising is that we got revisions to the feds. Economic projections now calls for a smaller contraction in GDP this year and a lower unemployment rate. How does that sort of the play with the economic pain that we saw in November and What we're seeing this month so far. Right, Well, we're looking back when it comes to what Besides said. And yes, we are getting to a point and chairman. Powell also commented on this that as we do see rising covert cases, it's very possible that we do see a slow down. In the momentum that we had seen in the economy leading up until this point. We saw that this morning with the retail sales print as well. We saw a downside print downside surprise. We also saw downside revisions. The prior month for the month of October, so are already seeing this leveling off. It's not sputtering of momentum in the economy of covert case is rising and more restrictions come to the fore to, But when we look at the feds predictions going forward as you mentioned Now expecting a smaller, declining GDP. Also expecting a lower unemployment rate. When you see that they are expecting a better economic print, or their forecasts for the economy or the stronger we believe it there, however, at the same time They're making it abundantly clear that their unfold for a long period of time there for the argument lies where it stood for risk assets. Yeah, I thought was also interesting. You know, as you were pointing out, you know, this could be another long expansion based on trends. I mean, I do wonder Sarah just quickly got 10 seconds here, you know that we could be setting up for what we saw after the financial crisis. Right, And it's unbelievable, though, because at the prices that are obviously so much higher than where they were then and we're beginning from record high level. That's a really important point. All right, Sarah. Thank you so much. Bloomberg News cross as that reporter Sarah Pond, Zach and you are listening to Bloomberg. All.
Get the money out now
"We didn't get any relief. Bill from the congress and i i want i want to tell me why i wish i knew. I mean honestly. There's been this ongoing stalemate for months and months and months and the need the scale of the need for a bill is just demonstrable at this point right if you look at the numbers for various measures of economic hardship things like hunger or housing insecurity on employment They're huge so it's not as if congress doesn't know that there's a huge amount of need urgent need for them to act particularly given the fact that something like two dozen additional programs that have been holding families together are about to expire around christmas. But there seems to be this logjam over what should actually go into the bill and you know what what tools would be acceptable to help these families and businesses for that matter sue journalists. Take that a little bit farther right. We've got a piece coming up from kimberly adams here in a minute on liability protections which mitch mcconnell wants the state the democrats want state and city Funding to help them through the squeeze Is it possible. Catherine says they can't not know. And i'm going to throw you the same question D- do they really not know. I don't know the answer to that is impossible. It's impossible to now. I mean. I think i think what's really interesting in what is going to continue to be. The core issue is that lawmakers on both sides recognize that there is a massive new. Do something you know. There's there's fairly broad consensus that. They need to come to an agreement that they need to do before christmas. That we can't just you know sort of any year in not not come up with a solution in. I think that's why it's so surprising. And so interesting that it's taken so long to get there and it does seem like it's really boiling under these two issues at this point that's the whole distance between them But you know these two issues could be enough to scupper it. do you think katherine that. It's possible that they go home for christmas. And nothing is done and they say know what biden's coming in in january and let the new congress in the new administration figure it out. Unfortunately i think it is. I think it's a terrible failure of leadership. If that happens. I mean it's been an unforgivable failure of leadership that they haven't come to some sort of deal by now But the idea that in the days after christmas you'll have tons of people who get evicted. Who lose their Their unemployment benefits who suddenly have to start paying their student loan bills again have to pay their their mortgage payments again. Things that were in forbearance I think that would be a terrible terrible outcome. But i would not. I would not put it beyond congress for that to happen. Unfortunately because again it's been months at this point and they don't seem to have Endured any sort of political retribution. For not acting and so. What's to keep them from doing that soon. I hope that they act. But i'm very concerned that they won't do. You know a quick turn to the federal reserve here as we talked about perhaps in this segment last time you were on but definitely on the program at some point in the last couple of weeks. treasury six year mnuchin As we all know has decided that the for some of the federal reserve beginning programs under the care act ought to end it. It's worth pointing out that. While they were undersubscribed they did add some stability here. And i think it's also worth pointing out that they were undersubscribed. bydesign right. They were they were created on terms. That were meant to be extra. And some of them were created to work in exactly the kind of environment that we're about to go into a situation in which things are getting worse credit availability. Use may be getting a little bit worse as a result and you know companies and municipalities need. Need that backup auction in our sort of taking away right right as it may be needed. So i'm gonna. I'm gonna go sooner than i anticipated to. The old standby On a friday on this program. What is jay. Powell thinking genus. Malik you get to go first. The fed meets next week. The chairman will a conference and there will be all kinds of questions but in in five words or less. What do we think is going through his mind right now. Going to get worse before it gets better. He told me that's like nine. But okay all right. i'll buy that catherine. What do you think. Get the money out. Now about it Well look it's the mantra. I think of a lot of economists at this point. Other economic policymakers powell among other federal reserve officials have said as much not in those exact not in that five word phrasing but that they want more fiscal relief. That the ball is really in congress's court at this point to get something done that. The fed will continue to use whatever tools it has available. Whatever their usual You know boilerplate his on that but really they need help from congress
A clear disconnect between the Treasury and the Fed
"Janet yellen in her first official remarks as treasury secretary nominee. Maybe giving congress low. Poke in the eye. Inaction will produce a self-reinforcing downturn causing more devastation. So that's the maybe there is help on the way news of the day. The oh no. There's not came to us from fed chair. Jay powell and treasury secretary steven mnuchin in congressional testimony this morning summing up their views on the state of this economy and as marketplace's nancy marshall genzer explains. There is a disconnect. If you watch. Chair powell and secretary mnuchin senate banking committee testimony today and i know you did. You'd think they were talking about two different economies. First mnuchin said the october jobs report showed that the economy has gained back. Twelve million jobs since april and powell followed up with although we welcome this progress we will not lose sight of the millions of americans who remain out of work. Powell looks at the big picture. Mnuchin is focused on the letter of the law and the cares act did specify that some pandemic aid stop at the end of the year as the economy recovered mnuchin acknowledges that some additional help is needed but he also points to the falling unemployment rate. Catherine judge is a law professor at columbia university. The look at where we are this quarter relative to last quarter and they look at the rate of improvement. The unemployment rate did fall to six point nine percent in october. But that's still almost double the jobless rate before the pandemic hit the us adam ozimek chief economist at the jobs would site. Upwork says powell sees the glass half empty wall. Mnuchin says it's half full and mnuchin could make it harder to convince wavering members of congress to vote for another relief package. You can't really rally the troops as long as you're describing glasses full if congress doesn't pass another relief bill. Williams college economists. Ken kutner says the fed will say. Look if you guys can't get your act together and pass some fiscal stimulus you know. It's going to fall for the fed to try to try to take that slack as best we can and kutner says the feds tools are not ideal for that fed chair. Powell has said repeatedly. The fed makes loans not the grants that struggling businesses and jobless workers need right now.