11 Burst results for "Jay Jaffe"
Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast
"jay jaffe" Discussed on Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast
"Media It's always like oh my gosh what happened Right and it's like just do it at 9 a .m. So that we can write about it during business hours Like why do this? Just put out a press release and then do the press conference Yeah but it's usually not as exciting as people dream about it being Oh tanking right Tanking for autonomy I mean look If you The Mariners know That Otani is going to be Otani Which was a reason I think a pretty reasonable thing to be like Yeah like he's going to be Otani Then sure you know what I think Sure because Our playoff odds Prior to Opening day on 2018 Had the Mariners Projected to win 77 .8 games And like had 9 % chance of making The postseason And what happened They didn't make the postseason Like I think that there are Years where a team Should be reasonably clear eyed About like what are What are their chances you know Like what are the chances that They're actually going to do it Now if you're the Mariners It kind of depends like when do you make that decision Because also also Ben The Seattle Mariners on the final Day of July relevant For trade deadline purposes In that year they had almost 60 % chance of making the postseason So do you make A decision going in That you're going to be bad Or do you make the decision over the course Of the year like I think that it's reasonable To be a little squishy On it even though I would have Preferred to have Otani Being a Mariner but see by September 1st their playoff odds were like 11 .4 % so at that point If your odds are that Low on the 1st of September Then I think what you Do Ben is you say Where's that guy who gets A zero O .B .P. When he comes from the Mariners Bring that cat up for a couple of weeks Let's see what he can do But I don't know I to want discourage teams From employing tanking Because I think part of the Problem with the strategy Is that there is I mean and now I think teams are less inclined To do it just in general because When a lot of teams try to do the thing Then the odds of you getting the first pick And also now you have the Draft lottery stuff so like You know there are some Rules in place to try to disincentivize Teams from doing this and there are Market forces in place that often Disincentivize teams from doing this but I think That part of what is The problem with the tanking approach Is that it gives a false sense Of certainty To clubs and to their fans That it's going to work because Most of the time you don't know That Otani is going to be Otani like and most of the time you don't Even have Otani In professional baseball In Japan to point to And be like we can feel reasonably confident I think that it was pretty Obvious that like Richmond was going to be a Good big leaker but it felt obvious To a lot of people the talk was going to be on too Including us so I think that part of why It can be an alienating Strategy to fans Is that you don't know You just don't know Because sometimes The guy you take is Really good and even With him being really good the rest of the club Is bad and it doesn't matter That he was really good because you haven't Done the other stuff to elevate your club So I think you don't Want to have teams being like oh this is Definitely going to work because sometimes you're the tigers Yeah and even With Richmond who was As close to can't miss as it gets He still took three years to Get to the majors after being drafted 1 -1 right now could have been Faster perhaps the Orioles could have Promoted him more quickly he could have Not gotten hurt at an inopportune time And he might have been up a little sooner etc. But still you're looking even For a number one overall pick Coming out of college it's still Often going to be multiple years If everything works out well So there's just so much Time and so much uncertainty That it doesn't really make sense Because the prospects are always Younger and unproven In pro ball it's not like In the NBA where you have a Victor Wemba and Yama and he's Playing at a high level internationally and There's a long history of NBA Top draft picks being stars Immediately right it's not like you Have to go to the minors and ride the bus for Years and years right so I think It's probably for the best because NBA tanking gets extremely Transparent and ugly and teams get Fined for it and Even when this year The Mavericks and just everything that was going on It's harder to tank In that way in baseball I think On a game level you can certainly Tank at the start of the season And what you do over the off season But on an individual game level In the NBA you just sit one Or two guys and you're basically throwing in The towel whereas in baseball It takes much more than that and it would be even More obvious because no One player is making up as High a percentage of your roster And is contributing As much to wins and losses so That is probably for the best but Yes if there were an international draft And you had someone like Otani or if You had Roki Sasaki or someone Like that then that Probably is the caliber of Player and proven player Where it might actually make Sense and also You could argue that It's not even anti -fun In the way that tanking often is because You get Otani right And so if you had Otani For six season that makes Up for a whole lot of losing In the season prior Because he's just Once in a century type Player you're the only team that gets an Otani and he's there right away Yes right right he's there right Away that's the other like big Difference because Otani was just going to be in the big Leagues the following season wherever you sign So you know you don't have to You don't even have to wait except for the people That said he should start in the minors because He couldn't hit big league pitching I don't hold a grudge Or anything about that all right Question from Sam Patreon Supporter who says when it comes to Fringe however you define it cases Do you think future Hall of Fame voters Yes a Hall of Fame question In May will consider the time Missed during 2020 and put Those candidates over the top is This something that as a voter you would consider Was there any noticeable trend for guys Impacted by the 90s Lockout and strike I know War isn't everything but a guy finishing at 56 and getting a bump to 60 or 61 war Would be a big deal for some voters I would imagine So yeah I guess you would get Some slight consideration Of that it doesn't seem to have been a Big factor for guys who Miss time with the strike right like it It'll get mentioned you know Jay Jaffe might mention it in a Write -up he might say he was Having a great season in 94 and it was Cut short and if he'd had a full Season 94 95 Then his numbers would look a little bit better But I don't know that anyone Puts you in because Of that expected Production that you missed right Because you can do that with Strikes you can do that with Lockouts you can do that with war years Yeah injury I Guess is is also a kind of absence Maybe it's different because it actually Reflects on your ability To perform as opposed to Just not even getting the opportunity because They weren't playing baseball games but If players were away at War in the service Then that's something that gets Mentioned and people Will sometimes fill in the Blanks with a Bob Feller or a Ted Williams and say well extrapolating from His production if he'd had those years Joe DiMaggio then he'd have this many War this many homers But I don't know if there are cases of Players getting in Based on that like yeah Maybe if it was he's right on the border Line and you figure But almost every generation Has some sort of stoppage Like that right yeah and I think That I mean I guess maybe The place you see it is if a guy Has had like a oh An illustrious career but is A little light on like counting Stat achievements like Maybe then you say well you know He went to war like Is that you know So I think sometimes like that Plays a part but yeah Generally I don't think I think people are Pretty resistant to Filling in those gaps I think They are correctly quick To sometimes point out How unfair some of those gaps can Be right that it's something outside the control Of the individual right like you had to go to War
Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast
"jay jaffe" Discussed on Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast
"A Hodges podge Hodges podge Hodges podge. I got trapped saying Hodges podge. I went to the black lodge and said Hodges podge. I just finished my Twin Peaks where you watch. Yeah, I could tell. So that last episode is so upsetting. Anyway, so what you're really saying is you want to give Jeff you more power somehow you want to be really imbue that process with more Jay jaffe. I support that. I think that's fine. He's got a good sense for these things. It's tricky. It's a tricky business because I think you're right that we want it to it's hard for it to be as expansive, but as precise as we need it to. And I think this is a place where having something that has almost in a way less institutional memory than the Hall of Fame has. This is profound because I think that there are constituencies that give anyone in particular a hard time, but there are constituencies that you and I are more invested in satisfying than the Hall of Fame seems invested in satisfying. And I think that when you think about some of the moves that the writers have tried to make to make the process more transparent to make it more responsive to have it maybe try to account for a broader swath of the player population and the halls resistance to that in various spots. I think some of that is stubbornness, but I think some of that is also the haul having a bunch of different entrenched constituencies that it feels like it has to satisfy in order to be relevant to the people it wants to be relevant to. And so yeah, there's something about, and I'm not like trying to make like a weird disruption argument here, but you can be nimble and I think bring less baggage with you on some of these questions when you're a website, you know? And I think that you lose you lose stuff by shifting that way, but it's not like we're tearing down the Hall of Fame, so maybe that's fine, you know? It's not like we're saying and also we will march on cooperstown and tear it down brick by brick. That's not the project here. But I guess one question and you might not have an answer to this. Is there a set of circumstances a set of institutional changes that you, if the hall were to make them I don't know, like making demands or anything, but if they were to make some changes where you would go, I would consider voting again 'cause like I do. Oh yeah. I appreciate Ben. I think it's admirable that presented with a quote unquote easier ballot in some ways because some of the gnarliest cases of at least off field conduct, not all of them, but some of them have exited the ballot that you didn't say, well, no, I don't have to answer the shilling question. Put me down. Like that. I think that that is, it's suggests an admirable consistency on your part that you didn't easier way out after that. But is there a reform that could be made where you would go, yeah, I'm like, no, now you mention it. Yeah, yeah. Oh, yeah. If they removed the character clause, I would vote. I think the hull is, again, I don't know if it's unique, but it's highly unusual in having a character clause, which is just sort of vague and murky and talks about character and integrity and sportsmanship and all these things that don't specifically limit it to on field. And so one of my objections is, again, kind of making it about that because I don't think that that's what most people want it to be about, but which is not to say that I want to sweep under the rug nasty stuff that people have done if anything quite the opposite I don't like the fact that because there is a character clause that suggests that anyone who is in must have had good character. It's like what we evaluated their character and their Hall of Famers. So they must have spotless records or then you end up was this person good enough at baseball that it outweighs the fact that they had domestic violence or sexual solid or multiple DUIs or whatever all these marks on people's records if you have a character cause you can just choose to disregard it, but it is in the instructions that I'd be signing if I were to submit a ballot. So I would say either just get rid of the character clause and bring it into line with whatever the NFL, the football Hall of Fame, most other hall of fames, it's not necessarily about whether you were a good person or not. And then there can be an understanding that these were the best baseball players, but they weren't necessarily good people. And we can acknowledge that and we can talk about that and we can account for that in some way. We could even put it on their plaque or whatever asterisk for what bad things they did just so that we're not kind of holding them up as great characters. It's just note they were good at baseball and beyond that we're not passing judgment when we're another we're not saying now you could say that I think one thing the football hall fame does. I mean, it will just sort of pre vet people. I mean, you could say what this person did is so heinous that they can not even be considered even though we're stripping the character clause. But yeah, if they either strip the character clause or had some way of accounting for character in some way so that you could learn more about the characters or you could walk into the Hall of Fame and not think oh these were these must have been a bunch of great guys. So great ambassadors and representatives of the game and just kind of uncomfortable with that whole aspect and I know that historically speaking the character class wasn't really prioritized and then it was in recent years as people started to use it as a way not to vote for PDs. People and steroids guys, et cetera but now that we've, I think, belatedly begun to really appreciate just the harm that can be done by other things and just like baseball is a sport, didn't used to have a domestic violence policy and now it does and it's a much bigger deal than it used to be. I mean, it's perceived to be, then why should that not weigh into whether you're voting based on character and integrity in all these things? So I think if they removed that or if they provided some mechanism to account for that kind of thing, the way that you go to the Hall of Fame website and it summarizes their statistical accomplishments, it could also give a picture of or if there were any mechanism for removing people and I'm not saying that we should just remove everyone retrospectively and retroactively Willy nilly based on
Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast
"jay jaffe" Discussed on Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast
"What they have managed to do. Well, and just like the completeness of this team, right? Like there are a lot of ways to be a good baseball team and sometimes roster were lean on concentrated strength on one side at the ball or like a couple of stars, but they are just so good in so many different ways. Jay, jaffe wrote about them in comparison to the 98 Yankees earlier this week when they, you know, when they had but a lowly 49 and 17 record, you know? Who even cares about that? What kind of celebs are those? And you have to of course context to just this team versus 98 to really appreciate what they're doing now relative not only to the 98 squad but to the offensive environments and sort of scoring environments that each of those clubs are in, but it's like the starters are great and the bullpen is great even though the bullpen has lost Chad green Tommy John surgery and Jonathan Lewis again has a shoulder strain and a roll this Chapman has been heard and not as dominant, but it doesn't matter because clay Holmes is incredible and Michael king is really great and then you know we watched Garrett Cole like carry a no hitter into the 8th inning last night and then you have, you know, we've already sung the praises of Aaron judge so I don't think we really need to do it again, but it's not just Aaron judge, right? Like they have so many great players with the exception of the production they're getting out of left field and shortstop, they're just really, really spectacular. So it is, it is the completeness of this team, right? It's like you have judge and you're like, wow, he is great and then you're like, but Anthony Rizzo is also being spectacular and Jungkook student is good in labor Torres is good and like, you know, he's in part time duty, but cozy trevino has been fantastic. And so I guess sooner field hasn't been the best either. But still, they're like really. It's really something Ben. They're just really very good. And so a lot can happen as we approach October and certainly this team appreciates both this season and in prior seasons the effect that injuries can have on the squad and how it can require players to step up and when they don't bad things can happen, but gosh, they sure do look very good and very complete. And it's not like, you know, I think that early on there was this perception that they had played teams that weren't particularly good. Like when you look at the recent stretch of performance they had, it's not like they've been playing schlubby teens, like they've been playing. They've been playing teams like playoff positions. So it's pretty good. The surprising part of it, I think, is that it is mostly the same cast of characters as, say, last season, not that that was a bad team, and not that they were expected to be a bad team, but if you just go to their baseball reference page and you know how baseball reference has the head shots of the players with the highest word, the top 12, I think ten of them were Yankees last year. Other than Jose trevino and Josh Donaldson, they're all holdovers, right? So it's not as if they just dramatically remade their roster. It's that a lot of the players they had who I guess were underperforming by many accounts last year are now over performing. So whether you want to credit that to the coaching and their new hidden coach, Dylan Lawson, or whatever, they seem to have just improved almost across the board and not necessarily by changing the personnel, but by improving the personnel. So it is pretty impressive. And you mentioned the center field hole, but these days very often, Aaron judge is filling that hole and he is a big guy, and he's just playing center very often. Now he's basically the starting center Fielder, because Aaron hicks has not been what they hoped, and they have sometimes had the all beef boy all giant outfield. Yeah, we did Friday. We will all beef boy outfield. It is our favorite outfield. Of all the outfits there are. I'm sorry, that's our favorite one. It's pretty great. On Friday, they had Gallo and left judge and center in Stanton and right. Now I guess the concern has always been like, well, if you play judge and stand in the outfield or are they going to get hurt more often, but at least Stanton I think has had some history of hitting better when he is playing the field, which is not unusual if you look at patterns of DH performance. And so they are running those guys out there and they have more or less stayed healthy and I like it. I mean, maybe we'll talk a little bit about O'Neil Cruz in this episode and players who don't fit the archetype of their position. Well, you're judge doesn't look like a center filter, but he can hold his own there. I mean, he's a plus right Fielder. He's not a bad center Fielder. And if you can get that bat in the lineup and he's certainly not going to embarrass you out there, well, you hope that he won't pull anything when he's chasing after fly balls, but I like the idea of, hey, we want to get as many good bets into the lineup as possible. And guys like Gallo and judge and even Stanton, like they don't necessarily look like great defenders, but they're not bad. Some of them are actually quite good out there. Yeah, yeah. I mean, I think that it doesn't always work, right? Like we tend to hear to these archetypes for a reason. They are useful heuristics, but you don't want to cue to them to the point of not playing a guy when he can just be good out there and so sometimes. Well, yeah, it turns out that you don't necessarily have to go get the biggest names on the market if all of your existing players just play better. Particularly when they are themselves big. Yeah, that's true. So the question is if Joe Girardi were still managing this team, what were their record fee? No, that is not actually the question. I will not ask you that. Although many people were pretty sick of Aaron Boone as it happens too. And maybe they're feeling a little bit better about him these days. Brand cashman as well. So the Yankees are the class of the American League, the dregs of the American League. But it's not inaccurate. The Kansas City Royals. I guess if we really want to say who the dregs are, I guess it would be Theo condes and I don't pin that on their players. I've been on their ownership, but the okona is have the worst record in the league. The royals have the second worst record in the league and they, I guess, have kind of been the mirror images of the Yankees and well rounded firing on all cylinders. Royals firing on very few settlers, but there was a tweet that made the rounds this weekend and really miffed royals fans and then there was some follow-up to that tweet. But Aaron Ladd, who is I believe at Kansas City sports anchor, he tweeted a quote what he said was a quote from the royal state and more and he wrote it as Cal that's eldred the royals pitching coach Cal's doing an amazing job and I appreciate the question this was at a press conference Q&A..
Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast
"jay jaffe" Discussed on Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast
"The divisional era or I guess you could say the integration era or the DH era, although maybe you need a universal DH era too like the pitch tracking era, the statcast era, the zombie runner era, sadly, I guess that is an era. Hopefully it won't be a long-lasting one. But I would just say what I meant, I guess, you know, instead of just leaving it up to the listeners interpretation or making it very vague. But yeah, I think if I were to say modern, I would mean like baseball now baseball as it is currently presently played. I think I would probably say modern is yeah, I think you have to you have to have an expansive understanding and it needs to be adaptable. I think that for right now, for right now, I would go back to 2000 8, I would probably say like the pitch FX are a forward is modern baseball, right? I want to, and part of part of that understanding comes from the seats that we occupy, where it's like the way that we were able to analyze baseball, changed so dramatically once we had pitch tracking. And I think that the subsequent leaps forward that we have had in terms of the precision of that tracking, what we're able to measure what else apart from the ball we are able the location of the ball that we are able to measure all of that still fits in the same sort of category of advancement to my mind. So I think that that's what I would say because pitch FX was 2008, right? Yep. Yeah. Accident, by the way, total accident that we have that. Amazing. What a little gift. Total accident that that is the thing that we have. Don't think about it. Don't think about it too hard. It'll stress you out. But I think I would probably say 2008 because in terms of the way that I have both that I understand the game now and the way that my understanding of the game, I think felt like it took a huge leap forward, it was around the writing that that that change facilitated. And at this point, I mean, gosh, we've talked about this before, do we have any active big leaguers from before that time? Yeah. Justin rolander, to name one. Yeah, Verlander, but it's a short list, right? Yes it is. You know, the number of guys where we very cleanly have their entire careers. In the pitch tracking era is, gosh, this episode is just about making me feel old. I think all of her Perez looks like he just dropped off the list because he was just DF 8 by the Diamondbacks, right? Yeah. I was hoping he would pitch forever and I was. Yeah, he effectively did that. Literally, but he effectively did it. So I think that that would be what I would define as modern. And then I think you're right, but we have to kind of keep an eye on that. And grapple with our own mortality, you know, just to pick up a couple of different themes from this pod and recognize that that will probably be an insufficiently precise definition of modern in maybe pretty short order, right? And actually, I think the Hall of Fame just changed its definition of modern because or contemporary because they quite expansive their definition now. Yeah, they just reorganized what used to be called the veterans committee for the umpteenth time, right? And so now they have the classic baseball era, which is before 1980 and the contemporary baseball era. And can we pause? Everything before 1980. Yeah. That's a lot of that's a lot of baseball. Yeah. Yeah, and they did that for various reasons. We can't link to pieces that explain that, obviously, those earlier eras have been quite picked over when it comes to Hall of Fame candidates, at least white player Hall of Fame candidates, but that is interesting. I think that they moved that to 1980, whereas previously, I think the Hall of Fame had had that be maybe 1970 was like the modern baseball committee prior to this change so they just moved up and I guess it always should be moving along with the rest of us. It's like in the Marvel Comics continuity they have like a sliding time scale sort of, which is that it's not fixed to any date in history. It's like the modern era which started with Fantastic Four just like continuously slides forward in time. And it's weird and kind of confusing to wrap your head around. But I guess we need a sliding timescale of MLB modernity. But yeah, 2008 seems like a pretty good place to put it if I had to put it anywhere. But again, I'm not sure I would even put it there. I would just say pitch tracking era or since 2008 or something. I don't know. I don't know that we need to pin it down necessarily because no one will know what you mean unless you then go on to defy in it, which if you do that, then you might as well have just done that from the start. Well, and I think that when J jaffee spoke to, I think it was Joshua chew, he spoke to the president of the baseball Hall of Fame about the changes to the committee structure because if ever there's someone who's going to give you all the details you want about that, it's going to be Jay, jaffe. He's so good at this. And I think that that was part of what Josh said was that this is a standard that will be kind of reevaluated regularly because what modern means is going to contemporary means is going to change because after a while, we're going to all look up and be 50 and then it's like, oh God. So far in the rearview, he's just think about how old we are, which is not old. Even though I have spent the episode talking about how it has made me feel old, it is not actually old, but then you think about the distance between big events in your life and like the distance between when you were born in World War II and you're like, wow, those are approaching one another, aren't they? Yeah. Anyway, it's not going to get easier to contemplate that..
Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast
"jay jaffe" Discussed on Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast
"So I don't know whether this presage is more spending on their part or not. But at the very least they get to keep one great player and I believe he has a full no trade clause too. Yeah, I think that if you're a guardians fan, this has to feel a lot better than seeing José Ramírez like suit up for the Padres, which is one of the rumored trade destinations before the steel got done. I think it's great. I mean, he's a fantastic player. He'll stick around, there's definitely still work to be done with that team, but he is young enough and good enough that he will still be youngish and pretty good when more of their prospects start to arrive. It does sort of, you know, I think we'd probably be naive to think that this is like the start of more spending. Right. But maybe it's sort of them planting a flag saying we're not going to be the absolute cheapest team in baseball and while that is not something we need to applaud overly much. It is better than the alternative, so there's that. But yeah, he clearly matters to him to play there and now Cleveland fans get to watch him do it for a long time, so that's fantastic when it comes to haze. The fact that it took this long for them to eclipse the prior high is like pretty embarrassing and that they only did it by what $10 million plus whatever the option is valued at because we don't think we know that yet is pretty gnarly. I have to imagine that if he had been healthy for all of last year that that extension value maybe gets pushed a little bit higher, right part of it, it does feel like they are getting him sort of at a low moment. He was never going to replicate the Baba P did in his very limited sample when he first got called up because it was something insane. But I imagine that given how he was compromised with the wrist injury that he probably will hit better than he did last year. Your sympathetic to the fact that a lot of his value, even if he becomes a league average bat is still going to be tied up in his defense, which is really superlative, but is something that doesn't tend to get compensated and quite the same way as being an offensive force. So he manages his downside risk if he stays hurt, doesn't develop into a league average bat is a guy who's just primarily defense first. They get to keep him at a rate that they can handle, I guess. So, you know, I get it, it does, I still think that he even given what his profile looks like might have done better in arbitration if he had gone year to year. We always seem to forget that when we talk about these, there are guys who just make a lot of money in our not in the first year generally, but there are guys who do really well for themselves. So when we're analyzing these deals, I do think it's important to remember that while you're obviously not going to make free agent money until you're free agent, you're not making the league minimum those full 6 years either. Necessarily. So I'm curious how agents think about balancing that, but they might look at a guy like Hayes and say a lot of, as I said, a lot of your value is tied up in the defense and going, you know, so. I don't know. Yeah. And I think the zips projections for these contracts, according to the post spike Ben Clemens and Jay jaffe, I'm cribbing from here and of course dense and projections. Zips had Ramirez at 5 years and one 37. So not a huge amount more than he got and for Hayes zip spit out 8 years and 78 million or 9 years and 86 million. So Jay said it was about 10% below what would have been projected. But not embarrassing numbers, I'll be Acuna kind of contracts or Evan Longoria, old school extensions, anything like that. So I think, you know, those fan bases, they haven't had a whole lot to be excited about lately. And it's still a limited amount of excitement because it's not getting someone else. It's just keeping who you have already. But sometimes, but that's a win. If you're a fan of one of these teams, so I think being able to, I mean, not that we have to reduce fandom to this, but I think that there's a lot to be said for being able to walk into the team store and buy a Jersey and know you're going to be able to wear it next year and that that guy is still going to be on the field. I think it means a lot. I mean, this is something we talked about with the Franco extension too. It is just, it is meaningful to have it be about more than the laundry generally, to have it be about a particular guy who's your guy and is really, really good and to know that the organization is committed to keeping that guy around. I mean, it's a little different with Hayes because I think that one thing we should also keep in mind with guys who signed these Arab extensions is that in some ways it especially when they're for a reasonable amount like his as it can make them more tradable. Because you know exactly what the cost is going to be if you're the team acquiring them, you're not having to sort of model out what an extension of your own might look like, what a departure and free agency would be like, you know exactly what you're going to pay for exactly how long. So it doesn't necessarily mean this is such a mean thing for me to say to pirates. Who want to be excited? But I do think that it is useful for us to remember that sometimes it makes you very tradable, but not necessarily and you get to like go buy a Hayes Jersey and be stoked on that. You get to go buy a new Ramirez Jersey, a new guardians Jersey and be like that's my guy. That's so cool..
Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast
"jay jaffe" Discussed on Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast
"That stir last year. But he is lovable in a lot of respects and he does these things on the field that make you think he is a happy go lucky fun guy. And it seems like a lot of his teammates have very nice things to say about him. But presumably not opponents he is punched in. Yeah. Yeah, and it's tricky. I think that we can maybe and we don't know that this was what was at play. I think you can understand the context that might lead someone to behavior like this without excusing it, but it is important to sort of understanding it. And I don't know if you've been DFA, maybe that, you know, shakes you and puts you on your back foot from a mood perspective. But yeah, he can't you can't bunch someone without don't punch people, first of all, we can stop at that. We don't really need to qualify, but if you're going to engage in punching in the baseball context switch, you know, some baseball players seem really motivated to do despite us thinking that it was that it's not the best way to resolve conflict. It's generally best for people to have a sense that you're coming because you can really hurt someone that way. It's good that that doesn't seem to have happened here, but don't cold cock someone, that's bad. All right, so let's get to today's topic. The Hall of Fame ballot was released today Monday and I need some help here because any day now before the end of the month, I will be getting a Hall of Fame ballot in my mailbox for the first time ever. I got the email today, notifying me that my ballot was mailed or was going to be mailed today. I am eligible for the first time. I've been a member of the baseball writers association for ten years now. So my privilege as part of that is that if I want to, I can vote on the Hall of Fame. And my inner 12 year old is pretty pumped about this. Yeah. My outer 34 year old is sort of hoping the ballot gets less in the mail somehow. So I genuinely do not know what to do. And I don't mean that I'm like kind of conflicted, but really I've made up my mind already and I just want someone to endorse my decision. I really have not made a decision and I could use some advice from you from the listeners from anyone who wants to weigh in here. And we talked a little bit about the issues with Hall of Fame voting these days last year, and episode 1640, we had a couple of philosophy professors on to talk to us about the ethics of Hall of Fame voting, but this is really real to me now. And I guess it's a year closer to being real for you. And I'm pretty conflicted here. I don't want to sound super self serious and act as if this is the weightiest moral decision anyone has ever wrestled with because I think baseball writers can be a bit precious about this at times. Not naming any names. But in the grand scheme of things, the Hall of Fame ballot doesn't matter that much. But this is a baseball podcast, so most of what we talk about doesn't matter that much. So I basically picked the worst possible time to enter the voting body. I mean, my timing is the opposite of impeccable here. It's like the Donald Glover in community meme where he walks into the room with the pizza and he's smiling and then the room is on fire. That is me work again with my first ever Hall of Fame ballot in the final year of eligibility for Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, semi Sosa and Kurt Schilling. The first year of eligibility for Alex Rodriguez and David Ortiz. And of course, you have the lockout potentially contributing to a dearth of other baseball news. So December might just be like Hall of Fame all the time. That will not be the most pleasant discourse. I don't think. So this is basically like I'm the contestant on who wants to be a millionaire who's torn between two answers. And so I'm using a couple of lifelines today. I'm phoning a friend that you and I am asking the audience and I'm not going to necessarily abide by anyone else as a opinion about what I should do here, but I do value anyone else's opinion about what I should do here because this is not necessarily what I envisioned. Yeah. I thought about voting for the Hall of Fame to the extent that I ever thought I would. Like, once I was in the BBW a and I started looking ahead and said, oh, hey, you know, ten years down the road. I could potentially vote for the Hall of Fame. That's kind of cool and I can have a little impact on history here and I can join the rich tradition of baseball writers voting on the Hall of Fame and I care about baseball history. And in theory, it's sort of a fun activity to participate in. But a little less fun now and I know I'm not the only writer who shares that opinion. So basically it's like, you know, I always envisioned that this would be about picking who were the best baseball players. That's kind of always what I thought the Hall of Fame was not the museum portion, which is separate, of course, but the plaque part, the part where we decide is this guy Hall of Famer or not and he gets to have his plaque in the room. That to me was always about, well, were you one of the best baseball players ever, and it was basically only about that more or less. And now it is not only about that. And I don't know whether that's a good thing or a bad thing, but it is definitely different. And so when I was looking ahead to this, I was like, you know, I can be in on the next 11 or Tim raines or Larry walker. You know, I can support those candidates who maybe deserve or support than they get. And I can prevent or help prevent a future snub of an archaeon or a Bobby gricar and Alan Trammell or a Kenny Lofton someone like that. You know, I can cast my righteous vote for the saber metrically supported candidate. And now, well, I guess it would be fun to vote for Scott Roland. But beyond that, almost every legitimate candidate has some sort of controversy associated with them that makes it bigger than just baseball than just the stats. Yeah, just the numbers and just the jaws score. And so it's a different exercise and when that I feel more ambivalent about than they expected that I would. Well, perhaps we can start with a couple of sort of ideological questions that might help you to put some bumpers on this. Because I think that there are a couple of things that as a voter you need to answer for yourself and perhaps first and foremost, well, do you want to do the character stuff now? Or would you like to save it for a second question? Well, it all comes down to the character stuff, I suppose. I guess so. It depends what your other question is. I don't know. Let's start with a question that is relevant both to some returning candidates and also to some of the newcomers. So have you developed your opinion of where performance enhancing drugs factor into your ballot? Well, 'cause I think there are a couple of ways that you can go about this. I have always thought that Jay's approach, Jay jaffe's approach to this is sort of a reasonable one, right? Where he sort of bifurcates the group between those whose association with PEDs was part of what he dubs the wild west period right before there was a collectively bargained policy, the one that we know now that governs enforcement..
Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast
"jay jaffe" Discussed on Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast
"And i enjoyed his always by ben limber of the ringer. I'm not as good as the cardinals. But i am. Otherwise fis notice. Did we look. Allow me. I to say i don't believe in ghosts. Don't believe in devils magic. I think I think those are narratives that help people understand and explain their lives and phenomena. So you know. It's not for me. But i appreciate how it is for others. I will say first thing. I don't believe in. I'm sure i'm sure forced to think about it often. You know they sure. Do make me think about it and say i still think that's not true. You know. I still have to engage with that with frequency that i am often shocked by. I did not see this coming. Not just the very long winning streak that they are currently on at least as we speak but just generally the whole resurgence that they had had i kind of wrote the cardinals off at some point this season. They were kind of an after thought. We were all talking about the padres that was seemingly set for months of the season that patriots were going to be the team that won one of those wildcards and then the reds were searching. And in the cardinals. Kenneth came out of nowhere. Slow and steady until recently when it's been the opposite of that has been winning got a furious pace but yeah it seems like a lot of people are like here. We go again no. It's the cardinals and they're going to win the world series and no one wants that it seems like everyone still sorta sick of the cartels. Even though evan like won a world series in the west three years or anything but they've just made the playoffs and been a winning team or at least a kind of competitive team so consistently that i guess they're not exciting but hey they've earned it and some other teams have kind of collapsed and they're still standing there. September had their playoff odds at two point. Eight percent on springer seventh. We had them at two point eight percent and they are now and ninety nine point. Three percent yeah. What happened there. I guess we've talked about adam wainwright and how great he is been and then i guess the bullpen which was an issue earlier in the year and they were walking everyone and wild pitching everyone and having run score and hit by pitches and all sorts of nonsense and that has stopped the bullpens been better and then they've been in a solid defensive team along which is easy to overlook but it still sort of shocking that this has happened. I guess it's good players. Playing well like paul goldschmidt has been on a streak himself. Yeah and as you said they have that good defense. Which is jay. Jaffe wrote this week for fan graphs and kevin touched on in his piece on. This phenomenon has helped. You know guys like lester and hap and i gotta say. We're all excited about john. Lester and poor jay. Hap is being just as mediocre and no one's talking about him at all but you know that defense has helped those guys to achieve results that have outstripped what they were doing earlier in the season even though they aren't really pitching all that much better themselves and yeah it's just a thing that is is is it was lurking and now it is here and we must confront it and it's really a shame that it's not an even year because i probably could get a thousand words out of you know whether or devil magic were stronger like i. I'd like to engage in some false rigor on that question but the calendar didn't quite cooperate with me. Yeah tyrod yield's been good all year. Kevin wrote about edmundo's sosa has replaced. Paul diong and his not only been a good fielder but has hit as well so yeah credit to the cardinals while the padres are tire fire and while the reds of come short a bunch there have the cardinals been just biding their time winning every game. So yep we're gonna see some cardinals in the playoffs. It looks like they are surprising but not as surprising as the surprising team of the season. And that is how. I wanted to lead off. You're just by noting that our friend and recent guest means of baseball prospectus. Report at the other day that the giants are now the biggest pagoda over performers of all time. Wow so yeah pagoda. Projected them for seventy four wins this year. We're recording on friday. They have ninety nine and counting so they have outperformed their prokhoda projection by twenty five games and that puts them at the top of the list and pagodas been generating team projections since two thousand three. So we're almost up to twenty years of projections at this point and yeah they have now surpassed the two thousand twelve as were the previous leader at twenty four games over their projections. And then legendarily the twenty fifteen royals acceding by twenty two wins and the twenty twelve orioles. Another team that caused a lot of discussion twenty one wins those royals and orioles teams for a whole period. There were kind of repeated over performers lot as a molest which is not surprising at the two thousand twelve. As at twenty four wins two thousand eighteen as at twenty one wins two thousand nineteen as at twenty win so the as of surprise this a lot and then you have some royals teams that two thousand three royals and other sort of surprisingly decent team. Nineteen wins two thousand. Four dodgers nineteen wins. Two thousand five white sox worked out well for them. Nineteen wins twenty eleven. Diamondbacks nineteen wins. That was the team that had a negative run differential. I think then the two thousand eighteen red sox who were great of course nineteen wins and the twenty nineteen twins nineteen wins so the giants take their place at the top of this list and unlike some of those teams that were like run differential over performers as well the giants are just good which makes them more content take care. I didn't know that twenty five wins was the most or that the giants were the most but that feels fitting because they are basically the story of the season at least as far as team centric stories. Go i just appreciate that. A bunch of relative olds out here doing great within their best lives. It's really exciting. Mostly still younger than we are. Which is disconcerting. We dwell on that part. Ben friday seltzer and a beer open right now. So i am i am. I'm saying let us let us lean into the things we like and not the things that make us sad. Although i guess i might have heartburn in my future so true over here this is something that has been occurring to me more and more lately as i think. Oh that guy's old wait. Are you mixing chasing one with the other. Which goes i was just. You know it's important to hydrate. Because i live in the desert and so you gotta hydrate and i have a seltzer for that purpose. And then you know. Sometimes as i've said before when we recorder friday show the rest of my schedule allows. We'll have a little A little beer with our recording. It's nice 'cause i enjoyed talking to. You sends me into the weekend on a high note. It's great not double fisting beverages. It's not one after the other. I see okay by the way. I have to correct what i said there. The twenty eleven diamondbacks were not the team that overperform they run differential. I was thinking of the two thousand seven. Diamondbacks who famously outscored had a pythagorean record of seventy nine and eighty three and ended up winning ninety games in the west but the two thousand eleven diamondbacks. That was a good team. They went ninety. Four hundred sixty eight and they had the run differential of at least an eight win team. So not quite as weird. But yeah the giants. I still don't know whether they will win the western. We're still speculating about that. That has been. I think the weirdest part of the whole division races just the way that these teams win every day seemingly the giants and the dodgers than they always win on the same days and lose on the same days and and we did a stap less about that not long ago but it is just so odd to see them both winning so often and yet. The dodgers barely gaining ground. And i know it's been frustrating for our pal cruelty dodger's fan like tweeting daily of how just the experience of watching the giants and seek them somehow. Pull out win after win after win. Well rooting for them to lose. It has been a very strange but also wonderful season. I'm worried that they are like The we're going to get a netflix stock about A true crime murder and it will be these two teams conspiring to kill. Craig and i don't know what he ever did to them. You know like I guess that the giants are really mad about that The pagoda projection. They had but believe poor craig alone be decisive wondering so we can rest. Yeah yeah patrick. Dubuque of his perspective just wrote an article about the giants projection. Basically looking at like how it missed an as he noted like you wouldn't really want a projection system to have pegged the giants correctly this year. Because if you did and if you were able to find one that had anticipated this it probably would be wrong about every other team..
Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast
"jay jaffe" Discussed on Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast
"How do you how. what are you root for. If you're the padres. I mean you're making the playoffs average. You have to. And i'm sure that's your primary concern but would you have. That's a good question. I don't know the answer to that. Yeah that is a dilemma for the giants. Like still refuse to lose. Not they lost the game at me. And i guess they lost that first game to the dodgers. But i don't think they've lost since then and so they're on a nice run and they have built up at an. You can call it a cushion but at least the tiny bit of a buffer like the dodgers as well as they played they just can't close that crowned. Yeah they're just stubbornly like perpetually. It seems to games behind the giants but yet in a wildcard game. I don't know that there's anyone on the giant staff who scares me as much as multiple dodgers pitcher. Do i mean just looking at the names on the dodgers roster and the underlying performance in the run differential and all that like would suggest that probably the dodgers are the petr team or you would project them to be better going forward and in a single game you're either going to add sherzer or bueller. Not that like kevin costner. Logan weber or slouches or anything bad. It's tough to beat made Bureau those are white. If not the two top candidates for the words you know. They're right there with anyone else and burns and wheeler and yeah. I don't know he choose. I guess yours been on the better. Run of late and fewer has the standing in that clubhouse as like a career dodger but also scherzer's sir in pisa legend and i think everyone respects him so it's not like any feathers going to be ruffled. If max scherzer comes in and starts that game but yeah if you're the padres. I'd rather play the giants but you can't go right either way now. Did you see. Make sure reacting to clayton kershaw getting his return on max scherzer. He's not. He is not reached base. One time this year not one time not on any circumstances you know. He's should face austin atoms and then he'd have he'd have a shot. Although i can't imagine a person i'd rather hit with a baseball lesson measures just because he's so sure surgery when he's pitching in. That seems like it would be terrifying to stare down but But he he was. He was delightfully ruffled. Let's say he was not angry but he was. He was strongly aware of kershaw reaching when he has had been on the injured list for so long insurance or has just been unable to by reaching here so that is a record as well her it will be if he fails to get a hit her face the season some sort of risk for that. He can't do everything he does everything that is actually like really part of his job. That's an interesting point there. Like what if you do have a valuable member of your team who is scheduled to hit against us and adams at this point like. Do you just pinch hit for a max scherzer or do instructive like. Hey just don't even send in the patterson sparks like. Maybe they'll just you know tell you to go back to the dugout. Her assess strikes on you until you're struck out or just like don't stand close enough to the plate. Even austin adams could hit you. That would be my advice for someone. You really can't afford to lose for a playoff runner. A potential wildcard game. Yeah i mean. I guess i mean i suppose the set of circumstances under which shirts or who does go deep into games on occasion but like he's probably not standing in against all senators all that often. But yeah what do you what do you do. I mean i guess if you're confident in your padding than it probably is fine but it would make me at least a little bit nervous jeff. I would stay away so we're actually going to talk to jay jaffe honor next episode of 'bout some outlandish playoff scenarios so we can do a little check in on the standings there. 'cause things are interesting in the wildcard grace's but i can talk to to jay about all of that. All the teams that are neck and neck and neck and neck and neck and neck and economic. There are some some good ones there but you did want to just briefly bring up the blue jays who are right in the thick of that too. Did i. well. I wanted to say two things one Greater length than the other. But you know we talked. I think on our last episode about the sort of improbable run that they went on and how that run onto for them. Surging up the playoff odds. In addition to the actual standings which are the important thing there and one of the really cool things about working where i do is that we sometimes talk about something and i'll think that'd be good for someone to write about and then i go bother them and ask them to do it and they do a good job so you know. Some of the exact percentages have shifted around a little bit since he wrote this book. Ben clement a fun piece for us at van graphs on the greatness of the blue jays and also how that greatness and some of the ineptitude on the part of the yankees in particular has has allowed them to ascend as they have so people should check that out if they want a non snarky like explanation of how some of that stuff works. Which i think is good to meet people where they are and say we have a cool compelling real word world case to help us unpack a thing that people sometimes find a little opaque so so check that out and then also just thought we should like take a moment to be like a cool that we get to watch vladimir guerrero junior. Yep it sure is. I think we should. How did that home run. He hit become a homerun. Ben that's wild. That should have been a line out the third baseman. Yeah it is The only sadness ahead is is that he has now surpassed otani run race. And obviously i'm pulling fro tiny there..
Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast
"jay jaffe" Discussed on Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast
"Idea that maybe it's better to ease people into the name as long as you got rid of the offensive part like there were a lot of people making jokes about the fact that both names end indians as if you know it was just kind of like lazy designed on their part all they had to do was change if you letters at the front but the fact that these names ended a declines that not the offensive of the old name. So i could sorta see how you know. It's the same team and there's a lot of tradition there and so maybe you don't want it to be super jarring like you could say maybe it's better if it is jarring jar. Everyone out of their complacency with the old name and show that you totally disagree with it. But i kind of see that maybe just keeping it close ish. So that it's clear that like this is the same franchise you can continue to root for this team. It's just that we change the bad part. You know as long as there's no new chief wahoo replacement where chief wahoo is replaced by the guardian face or something like that as long as it's just that the name ends in the same letter in has the same lettering like you. I agree that it isn't missed. Opportunity not to capitalize on the art deco design of the gardens and just have the woke. Oh look like that or i. Guess the logo kind of looks like that but the lettering of guardians does not so purely for that reason. I think that they could have done better with that. But i'm kind of conflicted about just having some new ity. Maybe not the worst thing from some perspectives. Well i think we can. We can leave it on. Like keep. keep talking to your to your fans. Cleveland and and view you can continue to renews liquor gross tech terminal. You can continue to deteriorate on this though. I gate while you're at it that's man. I missed the era of eight in mind finance consulting life and boy am. I glad because. I don't think i would ever been able to sit in a meeting with st louis and hear someone say eighty eight. I as one of the worst. Yeah eight quite a coup for. The bench is to get tom hanks to do the voice over for your nouncement video like who can be mad at tom. Hanks if he says he likes guardians find among on port. I was surprised by that mostly. Because didn't tom. Hanks grow up in california. like famous. leonidas fan. I think he has some history in cleveland like he. He started out as a young actor. I believe they're so so he had his his first professional job. He was like an intern at the great lakes. Shakespeare festival or something so i think he rooted for cleveland during that time. Although yeah like when you think of cleveland you don't obediently thick of tom. Hanks but the guy who jumps to the top of the list for me no not at all but anyway can we call them the guardians right now. I know that they will not officially be named the guardians until next season. But we've been calling them. Cleveland for quite a while now and it is very awkward to call only one team by the name of it city and now that we know what that name is. Yeah let's just go with guardians starting today. Oh yeah. I mean this is like at the at the very bottom of list of the reasons why name both a name change and then at an actual name announcement is good we will we certainly appreciate the relative stakes here but as a person who edits baseball writers being able to give them a new thing to say. Just a la. What a little gift. So that is a tiny gift to us on a friday. Clearly not the most important thing. But yes i you. You remind me that i need to slack the grass lack and say guardians fair game. Because we you know we moved away from it this season. 'cause we didn't we didn't have to go through a design process. Although if we had. I imagine that one we explained it we would have. We would have known to put pastime one word. One t not past time cleveland to cripple your copy editing feedback. I turn it off and it makes me less fun as a person. I know that about myself. You're all sitting there being like man. You seem like you suck at parties. And i do all right. So we're good with guardians and we're glad that there's a new name in other news. We have th raise making trades. Other teams are trying to pick a lane will they be buyers or sellers. The rays are saying why not so the raise initially traded for nelson cruz on thursday. The deal is nelson cruz. Anna minor league right hander. For two other minor league. Right handers joe ryan and drew. Stop men going back to minnesota and those are real pitchers real prospects as we will discuss briefly in our second segment. They were seventeenth and eighteenth. On eric lung and higgins preseason raised prospectless and they're now fifth and eighth on the twins updated west so they got a real return here. Although cruises of course the headliner going to tampa bay and then on friday tampa traded away podcast favourite rich hill for tommy hunter and the new york mets fourth round. Pick from last year. In april hitter named matt dyer. So the mets pickup richhill and. I'm sorta disappointed that hill and cruise overlapped for only like a day because the rays very briefly employed the oldest hitter and the oldest pitcher in the american league. So that was fun. But i guess they reached their quota of forty one year olds so he'll is on the move. So what do you make of nelson cruz. Tampa bay ray. I love it. i like it more. I don't really have a super strong feeling about the rich hill. Deal not to get ahead of us. But i like a cruise to raise very very much that teams you to strike out. Just two billion percent and it won't matter because they're gonna hit home. Any home runs nelson cruz. You've noted as forty one. But i think he's ageless like in his heart and at the plate importantly as we have discussed too many many times. I like it a lot. I think they've gotten they've gotten decent production out of some of the guys who they have cycled through the d. h. spot. But this i think really changes the of potential of their offense in a meaningful way and as as kevin will note in our later segment like nelson cruz. Just as seems like one of the all time clubhouse guys and that's always a good thing to have no matter what your position is in the standings and is certainly i think useful as you progress through october so i like it for them. Very much Jay jaffe has been doing his annual replacement level killer series for us at fan graphs. This week where he looks at the teams that are at every position of underwater and might look to improve at the deadline and the raise they were they were going to feature prominently in the d. h. section and then traded for nelson cruz and solved their problems for jacob. Press so i think this is just like an obvious win for them..
Scoops with Danny Mac
"jay jaffe" Discussed on Scoops with Danny Mac
"Need to live with things that are inconvenient or are challenges when we have solutions to them. Doctors doctors at ophthalmology associates can help you every step of the way so i need you to tell them that you heard about them on the chris rabi show husky with danny mac dot com. And you do that by calling three one four nine six thousand three one four nine six six five thousand or by going to get more in fort your ide act dot com. Tell them chris rabi sent you. Tell them you listen to the chris. Rabi show hunt scoops with danny mac dot kau saga little baseball. Kevin goldstein. all right. It's great to have kevin goldstein. Join us on the show. On scoops with mac dot com. Of course kevin one of the well. I will say one of the guys along with a handful of guys that have been on the show this week already. Now that i think about it who really. I think changed the way that a lot of us. Think about baseball kevin. How about this. We had jay jaffe was with assan. No and willie train monday. Then jay jaffe. Now kevin goldstein. This is like a a heavy hitters Who of of baseball and baseball writing. What's going on man. No pressure no pressure. Yeah you're just going with the old timers at this point. I get it. Kevin goldstein is with us on the.
Scoops with Danny Mac
"jay jaffe" Discussed on Scoops with Danny Mac
"Of players like them the that expected. And it's possible that the players wanted to try to You know get more off days. that they could agree to the doubleheader rule to give themselves a handful of extra opted a year But i think that that those kinds of things are probably unlikely to slow down. I mean it's you know minimum salary arbitration rules free agent rules. Those are those are going to be the things that that these two sides cross swords over and and it's going to be a bloody battle just in that these other things are relatively peripheral but You know that there's genuine concern within the industry about a work stoppage. Yeah how much do you think. A loom are increasingly. Loom over this season and then data into the postseason. Perhaps well i think it's i think it's more going to be a topic for the off season. I suspect you know. We'll we'll hear some back and forth during the season. I if rob manford is an tony. Clark learned anything from last year to negotiate in public. I don't via twitter learning. Yeah we'll just it'd be it'd be the media. I don't think they've actually learned that. I you know but i think they'll do better I in part because if the simply of a less fraught time than it was last summer when when everything seemed to be Up in the air and on the break and there was genuine. Fear that we would get a cease at all We'll see though. I these you know. Cooler heads need to prevail and We'll see we'll see if we can reach a jaffe at Fan graphs including the piece on some of the changes in the atlantic league in what some of the consequences could be of. What's being implemented j. Always enjoy the chats man. Thank you so much and we'll talk again soon. Appreciate it all right. Sounds great. Chris next big. Thanks jay jaffe and a big thanks to the doctors doctors at ophthalmology associates. Dr greg Runyon dr robert precisely and dr andrew. Royer schedule your appointment now. That's going to do it for another week. The chris rabi show broadcasting from the ophthalmology. Associate studios will talk to you monday until then be nice to each other and always peace.