20 Episode results for "Jason Furman"

Rush Limbaugh May 29, 2020

Rush Limbaugh Morning Update

01:34 min | 11 months ago

Rush Limbaugh May 29, 2020

"Last month a guy named Jason Furman top Obama regime economists spoke to a bipartisan group of policymakers. He laid out what to expect. When the economic shutdown is over, he predicted that they're about to see the best economic data in the history of the country. That's not good from their perspective. Now many in the group couldn't believe they thought Professor Furman Misspoke, but firm has stuck to that forecast. He expects that as the economic lockdown passes, the American economy will come roaring back at an unprecedented rate. He says that will experience a steep and quick rebound, just like trump is said to counter the steep and quick. Quick shutdown now politico is reporting Democrats are dreading this that they are spooked that an even a partial comeback. We'll put trump in the driver's seat for the November election. Now think about this fermented here. We are slowly coming out of an unprecedented economic catastrophe over thirty million Americans lost their jobs. Overnight businesses had a shut their doors. Some may never come back. And what Spooks Democrats? What'd they dreading Americans getting back to work because that'll make president trump look good I'm telling you folks. These people are sick. He's Democrats are pathologically sick. The country will recover from covid Nineteen Democrats will never recover from their hatred.

Professor Furman Misspoke trump Jason Furman president
Rush Limbaugh Jul 06, 2020

Rush Limbaugh Morning Update

02:04 min | 10 months ago

Rush Limbaugh Jul 06, 2020

"At steeple. We believe investment advice is about more than helping you manage your wealth. Our investment advice is about you. It's about providing your kids with opportunities for a head. Start in life feeling secure in your retirement in realising dreams just may become a reality because you have a plan, we believe in you. Your path to investment advice starts with your full financial adviser. Find Your new steel financial adviser at Stephan Dot Com. That's Sti F.. F. E. L. Stifle Nicholas company INC member SIPC NYSE last month. A guy named Jason Furman top Obama regime economists spoke to a bipartisan group of policymakers. He laid out what to expect. When the economic shutdown is over, he predicted that they're about to see the best economic data in the history of the country. That's not good from their perspective. Now many in the group couldn't believe they thought Professor Furman. Misspoke, but Furman has stuck to. To that forecast, he expects that as the economic lockdown passes, the American economy will come roaring back at an unprecedented rate. He says that will experience a steep and quick rebound. Just like trump is said to counter the steep and quick shutdown now politico is reporting. Democrats are dreading this that they are spooked that an even a partial comeback. We'll put trump in the driver's seat for the November election. Now think about this for a minute. Minute here we are were slowly coming out of an unprecedented economic catastrophe over thirty million Americans lost their jobs. Overnight businesses had a shut their doors. Some may never come back. And what Spooks Democrats, what are they dreading Americans? Getting back to work because that'll make president trump look good, I'm telling you folks. These people are sick. He's Democrats are pathologically sick. The country will recover from covid nineteen. Democrats will never recover from their hatred.

Professor Furman trump Jason Furman Stephan Dot Com president F. E. L.
Was the Global Financial System Better Prepared for the Pandemic Than 2008?

Intelligence Squared U.S. Debates

52:16 min | 1 year ago

Was the Global Financial System Better Prepared for the Pandemic Than 2008?

"This is intelligence squared. Us The nation's leading nonpartisan debate series where the world's most influential minds debate the most important questions of our time. And you decide who the day progressive populism unifies and brings us all together. The Republican Party is institutionally demographically stronger than it's been in decades but if religion and belief in God it's such a great force driving moral progress. Hachem it fail so abysmally. Science is very good. But it's hot the equation. You need both the. Us does need to challenge. China's unfair trade practices. Rob Eliza is not a blessed. It's unstable it's equal. It's undemocratic and on sustainable ecologically are winning the battle against famine war pestilence and even death that is thanks to capitalism. Our debate will go in three rounds and then our audience will choose the winner as always if all goes well. Civil discourse will also win. Hey everybody I'm John Donvan. This is intelligence squared. Us welcome to our first ever digital debate. Where the setting? Maybe virtual but the arguments are real and we are seeing all around us right now in kind of economic ice age. This shutdown in human activity ordered an organized by governments to slow the spread of the corona virus. We're also seeing during this ice age of the economy. I'm series of specific industries. That are being stressed. Possibly to the breaking point airlines especially but travel in general big swaths of the food industry especially restaurants professional sports but also all entertainment that dependent on getting together. Numerous people in one place but the industry. We're GONNA take a close look at in. This debate is the one that gets summed up as the global financial system. And that's interesting to us because it was that system back in two thousand and eight that brought us right to the brink of economic collapse. So what about this? Time is the global financial system at risk of seizing up as a result of widespread bankruptcies and unpaid loans and markets bereft of participants or is the global financial system able to withstand. Whatever may come thanks to lessons? Learned and reforms undertaken after the Global Financial Crisis of twelve years ago. Well those questions we think we have the makings of a debate. So that's what we did. We had it. Yes or no to this statement. The global financial system was better prepared for the pandemic then for two thousand eight a quick note. We recorded this on Wednesday April twenty ninth. I was in Washington. Dc My two guests expert debaters. Who have spent years thinking about these issues joined in from New York City and Cambridge Massachusetts as always our debate one in three rounds and then our audience online. This time voted to choose the winner. But you can still weigh in on this one we are taking votes online at. I Q to us dot org that's Iq the number two US dot org right there on the homepage. You'll see our debate against the Global. Financial System was better prepared for the pandemic than two thousand eight. You can vote for against or undecided. If you're tuning in on podcast you can click the Lincoln. Our show notes as well okay. Let's meet our debaters again. The resolution is this. The global financial system was better prepared for the pandemic then for two thousand eight and arguing for that resolution. I want to say hello. I Jason Furman Jason. Welcome to intelligence squared. Us great to be here Jason you've debated with us before and you're one of President Obama's top economic advisers and you served as chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors from two thousand thirteen to seventeen year now at Harvard University. Your professor of the practice of economic policy. And we just WANNA say it's great to have you. We love the way your debate in the way you present an argument so thanks for joining us. It was in person so but this is the best we're going to do and we are pleased to be doing it. Also with Jillian Jillian. Welcome back to intelligence squared. You're the Financial Times the US and chair of the editorial board. We WanNA thank you for joining us and I also want to put another a little bit of background for those. Who didn't attend our previous iteration of this debate back in two thousand nineteen we debated on the resolution. Ten years after the global financial crisis system is safer. We had Jason Furman and the L. Cash Gari Arguing for the resolution arguing against we had scheduled Jillian and Kenneth Rogoff except Jillian. We missed you. That evening during Due to a flight mishap so at the eleventh hour our chairman Rose Rosencrantz. Took your seat and he argued in your place. We're going to hear from him a little bit later in the program. So we're sorry to have missed you. Then as Jason said we're sorry that on personnel but we are delighted to have you here and to have both of you making your cases for the side that you're on in this time of pandemic and let's move onto round one round one. We'll be opening statements. By each debater in turn. They will be four minutes each up speaking I four. The resolution the global financial system was better prepared for the pandemic than it was for. Two thousand. Eight is the former chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors. Jason Firm Jason. Your time begins now. The novel Corona Virus has created a massive human tragedy on a global scale. It's creating an economic tragedy on a global scale. I am very worried. Not just about where the economy is today. Which is a deliberate result of the virus and the policies to contain the virus? But I'm also worried about where the economy will be one two or three years from now on what the recovery will look like. The proposition in this debate though is whether the global financial system was better prepared than it was in two thousand eight. And I'm going to try to convince you that the answer to that is definitely yes. In fact of all the shoes that have dropped that one has not whether this pandemic struck us in twenty twenty or twenty ten or two thousand or Nineteen Ninety. It would have been devastating for the economy. The devastation would have been compounded if it was impossible to respond economically using the main tools. That policymakers have monetary and fiscal policy. And if it spread into a financial crisis which is something we know from. History can be very severe and almost guarantees long-lasting economic pain one of the worries that people had recently is a few months ago was with fiscal policy. Would we have enough space to increase government spending or cut taxes? If there was a crisis some people argued yet. Some people argued. No the answer is now clearly yes. All of the advanced economies have had enough space to do massive amounts of increase spending tax cuts of a scale that has not been seen since World War Two. They've done that with interest rates that today are lower than where they were in two thousand nine. In fact today we're borrowing at negative real rates to finance that fiscal response not the positive real rates. We had them a second concern. Was that we wouldn't have monetary policy and yes. Monetary policy has been constrained because we came into this with lower interest rates. But we learned a lot about how to conduct monetary policy in fighting the last crisis and the Fed was very quick. As was the other central banks around the world. Been Very quick to move to that novel. Set of tools sometimes called quantitative easing that have greatly expanded their balance sheets an ASA result. We haven't seen interest rate spreads a measure of risk in markets rise. Anything like they did in the last crisis and in fact some key interest rates like the interest rates on mortgages have actually come down finally and perhaps most importantly is the banking system. Banks are like the nerve system of an economy. If they start to fail you don't get lending and people's money becomes unsafe and history says that takes about a decade to recover from we put in place much stricter rules on bank capital in the wake of the last crisis and so banks went into this crisis holding larger buffers about fifty about twice as high by one measure fifty percent by another regulators had been doing stress tests regularly to understand. Just what a nightmare scenario would look like for the banking system and so they basically looked at and prepared for a scenario along the lines of what we're seeing now Jason Furman. I'm very sorry but your time is up and now that you have heard Jason's argument for the resolution let's go to our second debater. Who will be arguing against again? The resolution being the global financial system was better prepared for the pandemic than we were in two thousand and eight here to make opening statements Jillian editor at large at the Financial Times. Us what. I'd like to start by saluting. The incredible things policymakers have done in the last few weeks. Which has Jason pointed out a truly phenomenal and in many ways very brave. So well done but and that's way the but we have to ask. Why did policy-makers need to take these extraordinarily extreme measures? It was partly because of the severity of the economic shock but it was also because of something else. We have not learned all the right lessons from the financial crisis or cleaned up the system to put it on a safer footing ahead of the next one. I eat this one what I mean by that. Well let's think about some of the things that caused loft financial crisis debt. You'd think if you've had a debt fueled financial crisis you would then go. `Bout on trying cut debt. Think again in the last decade debt other a portion of global. Gdp has gone from two hundred and eighty percent to three hundred twenty percent. And it's likely to go even higher as a result of the current crisis in fat people. Saying if you go to three hundred and sixty percent so we have way too much debt and that has made the financial system a lot more fragile secondly charlotte banking. The last crisis. Had A big problem in the shadow banking sector. So you'd think that for this crisis they would've actually cleaned up shadow banking sector in the last decade wrong this time round the shadow banking sectors got even bigger and we've already seen the brutal impact of that through things like hedge funds in your way too much leverage in the treasury's market greeting the very nasty. Mike market gyrations in March that regulators had to step in and deal with complexity. You'd think off. The last crisis caused by way too much complexity they would come in and simplify the system and insured. We actually understood how all the new flashy financial innovations actually worked. How they on that no this time round. We not only have a whole bunch of new complex financial innovations which are not well understood. We also have the fact. That electronic trading has taken over the markets to a degree that most regulators and certainly investors and politicians do not understand. What the Rogo traders are doing and that makes markets Jarrett even more dramatically and last not lease contagion. Contagion means that we have a half a world. Where policymakers coordinate really closely now. The good news central bank governors are coordinating closely and as incredible collaboration there but the rest of the G. Twenty the get about it. We've seen an incredible lack of leadership of coordination. So you take those things together and I would argue that. The financial system was less well prepared than it could have been. It should have been and frankly given what we knew about the two eight crisis. It was in many ways. Let well prepared as a system than before. Two thousand eight and lost not lease as two more points. Firstly Jason's said that had been as fantastic stress tests in the system. And that's actually true again. I salute the regulators and people. I came who've pushed the stress tests the problem missile that they've only stress test for the loved war. I e what would happen with the mortgage crisis? What would happen the recession? They weren't looking at things like pandemics. Oh trying to get imaginative about thinking about what could come next and the worst primaeval the thing that really upsets me about the current situation is that because it's been so much debt because interest rates being so rotten Watson Bo. So many people in the system including many mom and pop investors had taken some crazy risks in the search for yield and that's system even more factor when we return. We will hear the debates go head to head. They'll also be taking questions from the audience. I'm John Donvan. This is intelligence squared. Us and we'll be right back. Hey listeners is another show. We think that you might enjoy. It is called the Ted interview and toasted by our friend. Chris Anderson who is the head of Ted? You can listen for ideas on how to work. Through this uncertain time with a sense of responsibility and compassion and even wisdom you'll hear from Hedge Fund share and Philanthropist Ray Dallaglio on what corona virus means for the global economy from author. Preah Parker on how to create meaningful connections while we're all separated and a lot more than that for more dives into what great minds are thinking. Check out the Ted Interview. Wherever you listen. This is intelligence squared us. Now let's get to round two of our debate to go back to the arguments that we heard. The resolution being the global financial system was better prepared for the pandemic than two thousand eight. We've heard both debaters assert that we're in a terrible situation as Jason put it. We're facing a massive human tragedy. We're facing a massive economic tragedy but he argues it on the resolution looking specifically at whether the global financial system is in better shape now than it was in two thousand and eight to handle a situation like this. He says indubitably so because of the reforms put in place because of the development of novel tools he concedes that interest rates are so low that there's not much room for the Fed to use that tool but that quantitative easing as part of the solution. He'd says that the banks are much better capitalized than they were last time around. And that bottom line if we were going through this corona virus thing before two thousand and eight we would be in much worse situation even than we are now and the global financial system would not be holding up as well as it is as he says right now among all of the industries that are in trouble. This is the one where the other shoe has not dropped. Gillian tests has countered that argument. First of all by congratulating the Innovation of financial institutions around world and. Trying to deal with the situation taking notice specially of the use of the quantitative easing tool that. Jason was referring to. But she's saying that the the fact that this tool has be used and use to such an enormous degree Resulting an increase in such itself as an indication that we're actually not better off that we don't really know what's going on for two reasons and that is that a large part of the global financial system is beyond the reach of regulators. I think he said something. In the neighborhood of seventy five percent of the global financial system is not just banking but beyond an unregulated. And all that so much has now done by algorithms and by computers that we really don't even know how well we're doing so that she she would challenge the very idea that we could assert. Were better off so I wanNA take that point to Jason. That Jillian made that because computers are so involved in making the split second trading decisions etc that. We're not really sure where we stand on this. I mean I all. We had an awful lot of algorithms trading a decade ago but more importantly. Why has the Stock Market Down? It's gone down because the present discounted value of corporate earnings have gone down because people are expecting a prolonged economic problem. The broad change in the stock market from February through now is roughly consistent with what you'd expect given that certain industries like airlines hit hard other industries hit less hard and and the like And so it. Broadly looks to me. Like are roughly rational response and it's rational response to a massive massive massive economic shock the largest in the century and nothing can insulate us and insulate markets against a shock. That big Jillian. What's your response to Jason's point that that he sees no sign that the algorithms are doing particularly irrational unpredictable. Things that They're reflecting a rough economic situation. Jason's can be incorrect. They're very good. Fundamental reasons for why markets have collapsed by twenty five thirty percent because guess what the Economic Outlook looks a lot worse. But here's a real issue. You've had this incredible amount of volatility and crazy gyrations much of which is usually the fact that the rise of electronic trading and Rober trading has changed the liquidity provision r. e. How easy. It is to actually try to not. I'm what's worse than that? Is that although you have ultrasophisticated hedge funds who understand what's going on or you hope they understand it. You can bet your dorm Bala that the vast majority returned buses have absolutely no idea. I no hope of understanding what the robots are up to. So if you WANNA create a system where essentially why does the Saudi buys into the stock market and capitalism? You need to have some sense. They understand it raw than seeing. Etf prices will stop prices. Go up by five percent one day down by the next etc etc. So for that reason. It's a very pernicious situation so Jason. There's a question what were regulators doing by allowing reach to stay so long and doesn't that in itself constitute an enormous risk to the system that does not reflect the sense that we're better off than in two thousand after two thousand eight. The main goal of policy prior to the crisis was to have low unemployment and stable inflation and policy makers were quite good on employment. It was quite low. Inflation was still below target. Not Above it. So I don't think monetary policy was too accommodative before this and I think you risk getting overly focused on their gyrations and markets. A lot of which by the way are a month a month and a half in the past and that we're not seeing on a continual basis now because the fed rather than having to invent brand new tools could take out the same tools that invented a decade ago and keep interest rates for treasuries for mortgages for corporate debt in a relatively unstable place. So yes if you look at certain technical features of markets especially in March you'll see all sorts of gyrations you step back and look at the big picture rates remarkably low and stable financial system remarkably stable of course the equity market is. We both agree as down. That reflects an underlying worse reality but the place where regulators can affect things. Credit markets have behave. Broadly speaking Quite well can lie. Mind finishes aspects. What's happened the last decade or twelve years is that ultra low interest rates and quantitative easing. Were initially introduced as a short-term supposedly temporary measure which has become guess what completely permanent and that's had two or three impacts one of them is and it's made it very hard to distinguish good companies from bad in the sense of everyone's being propped up. You have essentially Zombie Markings on companies. Secondly though you have a situation where lots and lots of investors including most pension fund managers a mom and pop investors all the people who we kinda count onto essentially manage our money for the future they have been taking crazy risk increasingly crazy risks because interest rates being so low they'd been forced to look for returns and all kinds of different places and the entire system has slid into a situation where is essentially structurally addicted to know rates before two thousand and H. You had a financial system addicted to private sector debt A bit like somebody being addicted to heroin and then you're the crisis and the central bank stepped in and they win the system of the private sector debt the financial heroin or they rather atoned for the sudden disappearance of that by providing morphine in the form of central bank quantitative easing. That's essentially what it is and what you've seen in the last couple of months is essentially doubling down on that because when corporate bond prices for example started to collapse which means that the cost of borrowing company started to go up central bank do it stepped in and said it would buy corporate bonds and essentially support the market. So essentially. You've had a situation where you've come out of a crisis even more addicted to morphine as are the big question which hangs over the entire system which nobody has not to at the moment is what will happen. That supply of Morphine Central. Bank support ever dries up Jason. Do So jillions this point a couple of times that the fact that we had to see central banks scrambling through March and into April in itself like really scrambling massively unprecedented kind of responses in itself suggest that we're not better off that these are that it's the equivalent of coming up with a new way to put out a fire because the old way didn't work. I just want to get your response to that kind of Bar. That she's setting. The unemployment rate today might be higher than the unemployment rate was in the Great Depression. The economy has never ever ever had the type of negative growth rates that we're going to see in the second quarter of this year. Of course the Fed had to do a huge amount. The people like Jillian who were arguing that this was morphine and addictive and a problem. We're making the argument that what happens if we get into a crisis. We won't have any tools left. We won't be able to do any more of this. We won't be able to respond. I'm not saying Jillian was making all this arguments but a lot of people were saying you know because of everything. The Fed is doing when we get into a real crisis. They won't have any room left to respond. Well they have proven that completely wrong. They have had room to respond and they have responded very effectively taking something that in some ways even worse than the Great Depression so far and made it. So you'd barely even notice what was going on in credit markets. If you weren't watching obsessively Jason I take a point but the reality is instead of peace today or modern peace at extraordinary cost for the future. Because it's come in it's provided off cheap credit or this cheap money which essentially propping up companies which may yet bostitch case. Somebody's GONNA have to pay the price of that and take take losses. There is essentially meant that anyone. Who's a saver? Can't get any return going forward because we've rights ultra-low almost indefinitely. They won't be the normal kind of returns that so many save depend on and it's also doing all this at the potential cost of threatening central banks own credibility because where we are heading now is essentially about the central bank buying government debt directly underwriting operations of the government quite directly and that is something which could end up essentially leaving bank simply as a tool of the government and if at any point people start to doubt the ability of America all the government to pay back that doubt doubt the ability that central banks actually independent enough to keep inflation low. Then you start to see a real financial crisis where people flee the treasury bond market the government interest rates go spiralling up the currency collapses. Any other really nasty mess. That is not theoretical. We've seen that story play out. In other emerging markets. We've not seen happening in America because people trust America right now but where we're heading with. This kind of combination of extreme measures could potentially be towards that kind of picture some way down the road. So so Jason what I hear from Jillian as a framing that somewhat a little bit different from yours. You're seeing so far. The system has held up and Jillian is saying so. Far Isn't enough of an answer. Because this is an unfolding situation and that the seeds are sown for financial global system disaster or breakdown or seize up that. We're we're so not out of this that you shouldn't be calling this better than two thousand eight first of all. Are you asking me? Is the system going to be perfect for the next several years? I'm certainly not going to argue that. If we are in the same economic position we are right now for the next year. We're going to have lots of problems in our financial system. I think that we're in better shape though because we came into this with low unemployment with a somewhat higher inflation rate and had the Central Bank. Not Been doing what it was doing. Over the last decade we would have had economic problems even before. This shock hit us all right. I'd like to move onto some audience questions and We reached out to some of our most engaged audience members and boy. Did they have questions? So we're going to get to them in just a second. But first I wanted to go to a special questionnaire. And that's our our chairman of intelligence squared Robert Rosencrantz who argued as I said earlier in a debate in two thousand and nine thousand nine hundred on whether ten years after the financial crisis. We were better prepared or not. He argued against the resolution at that point. But Bob Welcome to our first Virtual debate pie. John It's a real pleasure to be here in our previous this debate I ORJI. Financial System was less prepared to deal with the crisis that it was back in two thousand and eight and I've actually changed my mind about. Don't change my mind. Is that the principal argument or at least one of the principal arguments that I advanced was the notion that governments are simply going to be less capable of reacting to a crisis I felt that the Executive of the US government was less well staff than it was then. I felt that Congress would have more paralyzed by partisanship. That was done. I felt that. Us Global leadership was substantially diminished. And therefore be very hard to coordinate a global response to a global economic show and I have to admit I've been pleasantly surprised on all of those fronts The government has stepped up with a huge stimulus package some two trillion dollars of free all manner of rescue for vulnerable segments of the economy. The Fed has expanded its balance shoot enormously and there has been a degree of international coordination not conscious at least the major economies of the world of all converged on very similar policies of Very accommodative monetary policy central bags driving interest rates around the world zero making abundant capital available to to keep the market surge liquid. All of that has happened at a time. Pace and a magnitude the far exceeds we saw in await online. So I really feel like the global governmental responsiveness has been far better than I would have done. This question for Jillian Tat. So you've positive that one of the big risk factors in today's world is the amount of debt outstanding. Us government data's now close to one hundred percent of GM pay will be well over one hundred percent of gem As the next year plays out but Japan for example has government jet debt of around two hundred fifty percent of GNP and is is pretty steadily been able to increase GNP on a per capita basis for decades. Now so where is? The evidence of current levels of debt are indeed dangerous. Well we need a likely to be many years. All low affect growth of result of the debt budget and I would suspect that they were supposed to the authority. The time will be what people cool financial repression. That's essentially a concept by people like Tom and Reinhard. The dog is the most effective way to reduce that which was used off world. War Two is engineers situation weapon. Many many years interest rate I had how the low inflation And that essentially means that anyone holding on ends up in much and helping them to pay down the debt so you can do that thoughts. It takes a long time and the reason why Japan female to whether it's high budget and on the thought that it has not being sticky vibrant is because it has a really strong sense of social cohesion and shed pain if we look at the western thoughts on me. I'd say move into world with is absolutely astonishing levels of that we've seen in World War Two. Do they have the social cohesion to actually engineer? A smooth reduction in debt over time all we can have dramatic financial duration. Are we gonNA have fish explosions or even quick debt Julian defaults? None of those lost the cancer that Osgood for the financial system old as it happened. So they could make what. What's your take on the Jason? The jillions arguing that Japan had advantages in being able to bring the debt back down that we GD GNP relative to Indian population that we don't have and therein and again like the disaster in the kind of responses that are happening right now. What's your response to that? Yeah I think the fiscal crisis and the debt crisis is the single most predicted economic crisis. We've had it's been predicted over and over and over again and a lot of the people predicting it said you know. If we have a crisis we won't be able to borrow to get out of it. Well look where interest rates are right. Now Look at our ability to borrow to deal with this. It's quite large so I think people have massively overstated. The evidence for the impact of debt in causing crises massively overstated the evidence for it being a large negative for economic growth. That evidence is barely there. There's no evidence for threshold that you cross over and all of a sudden it becomes a problem. There's a little bit of a contradiction in the argument. Jillian is making because if we had had less of this debt that interest rates would have been even lower. So I think you can't simultaneously condemn the Fed and other central banks for low interest rates and have a policy prescription whose main effect would be that. Interest rates would be a lot lower. I'm John Donvan and this is intelligence squared. Us More questions when we return. It's time to take questions from our audience starting with one sent in by journalist Alison Schrager. Hi Allison my question is for the four side. The financial system was so well prepared. Why does the Corporate Bond Market needs so much liquidity now from the Fed because the United States and the global economy is going through the worst thing? It's gone through in a century and that's what you have central banks for central banks and the lenders of last resort. Governments are the borrowers of last resort. When no one knows how deep this is going to go how long this can last. Even if you had superb credit going into this. It's going to be a bit harder for you to borrow. And so that's why we have lenders of last resort there there for floods. There is a massive flood right now. They're doing what they do in that flood and it's working all right. We have a question now from Caitlyn in Vermont and Caitlyn says it seems. We are more politically polarized than we were in. Two Thousand and eight and the US is not taking global leadership position given the rise of populist economic policies and America I. Can we really say that we were better prepared in twenty twenty for corona virus and? Jillian that that goes to a point that you were beginning to develop in your opening arguments. What I'd like you to take that question on. I wonder this that you get out to the like day. You're GonNa have very harsh quite a bit about how you pay and you can either collectively decide how the pain in the galaxy way short for buying or you can simply fourth week people to take the pain all you revolution for you know wealthy to the pain But it does concern me. That America doesn't have Tarpley a mechanism pool smoothly and fairly spreading pain. That will get buying. It's GonNa be a question that's GonNa hold America for many many years because it's not just about who's going to cope with the potential loss of economic activity today. It's what's GonNa Happen in five years time when people are starting to try and pay down the debt and Jason. Ona TAKE THAT QUESTION. Also to you and also add this layer to it The American first message also is very very likely alienating has been alienating to our traditional allies and even financially important rivals like China and a situation like this where you where you WanNa have some sort of global cooperation. Are we in an era where where we are better off to make the finance global financial system work in a cooperative way? That we in two thousand and eight. Yeah I think the answer to that is is mixed. Frankly in some respects. Were better off. The IMF had two hundred fifty billion dollars of capacity for lending back then now it has one trillion dollars of capacity for lending the one trillion by the way is not enough. I think they're going to get two and a half trillion dollars of requests now. Obviously the United States is not working very cooperatively with the WHO and therein organization. That's more important not just for health but ultimately for the economy as well than the IMF and political polarization has affected the way people even read the facts on the extent of the virus. Dangerous if it's spreading And how it should be responded to so I think political polarization has gotten in the way of our response on the economic side. Not so badly that we didn't move more quickly than we ever have in history to do something larger than we've ever done in history to deal with the economic crisis which was the care. Act The fed I think has been outstandingly professional but certainly I wish we had. You know a more competent. And less polarized and more globally oriented political system. Right now I want to go to one more question and this one comes from Rick in New York and at actually goes to what we've been talking about and rick basically as saying people are saying this is not a time to be worried about deficits our government can just print the money it needs and rick asks when do deficits matter if you call this way. Investors Biotech called. Bully them into doing say whether they go to taught him what they think that you'll country from the truck back to then money and but also what the adults are just off and in the case of that right now it has on having noseda concept and he believes keep putting money and have the fish that although he thinks fast in America they look pretty rubbish everywhere right now. The going forth though is will domestic Beth keep fine backing debt eighth. You end up the situation. Actual question swore Sensu people try and top them by having negative real rate When other countries keep by politics down two point one two or other alternatives say at home then? Chaigneau other costs more traffic? We get. But that's the point. When DEFICIT WITHOUT NAFTA I mean people keep moving the yardstick and predicting just around the corner. Interest rates are going to shoot up and all sorts of problems are going to happen and that keeps not materializing. I think that in part is because what Jillian said is if all countries dead is going up you know who you're gonNA. Who ARE YOU GONNA turn to sets. Are you going to buy and ultimately? What matters for fiscal sustainability? Is that you have an economy to repay that debt and if you don't undertake that de because right now there's a huge liquidity crunch because of a huge economic crisis and if you're not undertaking borrowing to deal with that liquidity crunch you're not. GonNa have an economy left and that's the biggest problem. You could have with fiscal sustainability all right. That concludes round two of our intelligence squared. Us debates so round three closing statements by each debater intern. And we'll start with you. Jason Furman thank you so much. There's all sorts of ways that we were not prepared for this all sorts of ways that we did not respond. Well to what's happened. Almost all of those are on the health side with preparing for a pandemic with having tests ready with doing earlier lockdowns. The part of our system has functioned. Well has been central banks around the world. The fiscal policy of taxes and spending hasn't been perfect. But it's been quite good. Governments had a set of tools that they knew how to use from the last crisis and this time they rolled them out much faster than they did last time at a much scale than they did last time and as a result while we still have a lot of economic damage and I expect us to they have been able to keep it contained because it hasn't blown up the financial system. Also that'll take a lot of things. Jillian pointed to a lot of extraordinary actions that the central bank has taken. You are going to take extraordinary actions in the face of extraordinary almost unprecedented economic crisis. And I'm glad that the global financial system was better prepared to deal with this crisis than we were twelve years ago. Thank you Jason. Furman former chairman of the Council of economic advisors now to make her closing statement against the resolution editor at large at the Financial Times. Us Jillian. I would argue that if he wants to have. What's happening today? Think about that infamous. Maginot lied over fences at the French built after World War. One to trump then a judgment bathing using what happened last time round. We have various right now and in some ways even worse because essentially the authorities have already used up a lot of ammunition seemingly quite need the recent years by keeping interest rates Oprah low and by lacking debts racket up too dramatic levels even in the so-called peacetime even in a big at the same time though they were so busy preparing for the law crisis that they miss some of the problems like they come this time round not just by not focusing on the pandemic but say being so obsessed with mortgage securities. But they fail to see what was happening in the corporates and leverage loan world. So we're now the situation where essentially the central banks are having to double down to storage agree to step into the market to especially many of the markets the point where they are increasingly not necessarily functioning like be markets anymore and without a exit plan in place. I'm seriously concerned about the future. So that's the kind of country seen in the last month put end up being simply a foretaste of what is coming. You can't have medicine be worse than the actual problem is trying to solve. I like the way wave. Medicine shows the system was not helping thought with and is going to make it in the future again. Thank you Jason and Jillian and that concludes round three of our intelligence squared US debate the argumentation is over the arguing over. And now we are asking. You are at home audience to cast your vote to tell us where you stand after hearing both sides arguments that you can one more time go to IQ to us dot org forward slash vote Iq the number two dot org so the debate is over. This debate is over but the financial crisis the global crisis the economic crisis that health crisis certainly is not an as long as we have the two of you who are experts in the global financial system Surely there are places where we think you agree. We heard some of it and we just WANNA open ended up. Finish up this part of the conversation with a little more free form conversation. It's not competitive just to see what your thinking is going on in the in the economy so Jillian you recently wrote a piece in the Financial Times and the title was. How much should it cost to contain a pandemic? Let's start there what. What was the premise of that article? Based try and highlight very interesting. Research Come Out in New Zealand. Where one economists had debt publish? What he thinks is a reasonable amount of spending to contain the condemning butter tip to the number of potential death. He did that by taking the nineteen eighteen pandemic and mocking the president. The was interesting if that's a conversation that very few governments have be willing to have in public for understandable reasons. Because it's very distasteful but actually come out of the best peak if you like and hopefully we all come out the first peak I think about second peaks or returns of the pandemic. It's a question that's going to become increasingly serious. Because unfortunately the cradle between muscle amounts of spending and economic shocks buses. My say if some things that if not just difficult to make but it also picks different generations against each other Jason. I was reading. An interview gave back in early March when things were beginning to unravel in the United States. And somebody asked you what should what should the Fed be doing? What should the the US government be doing and and you basically wrote out a menu of options? Almost all of which they've they've now taken up and you were talking about trillions of dollars even at that time but if we look longer term at at what's happening to the economy right now where were you. Where were you looking to see what the lasting effects of this are going to be? Yeah let me just briefly address. What Jillian said 'cause I completely agree by the way in regulation we all the time. Put a cost on the value of life and we ask this cost. Were that cost not worth it and you need to do that when you have a limited budget when you have constraints. I think so far there actually hasn't been a trade off which is to say steps to help protect lives also will help the economy. China did a more complete shutdown in. Its first quarter than we have done. They had a bigger hit to their economic growth. And I think they're going to have stronger growth in the rest of the year precisely because they shut down their economy to a greater degree. So I think there's sometimes where there's no trade-off between saving lives and saving the economy. That's the place we've been. I think we're heading to a place with a tradeoff in terms of your question. John the thing that is the hardest is to keep a supply side of the economy together. You could make sure people have demand you can write them checks. You can give them unemployment insurance. You can keep the financial system together by using the feds and central banks lender of last resort function. But if somebody gets fired from their job takes awhile to be rehired if they have to be rehired in a different sector than it takes even longer and so of the people who've lost their jobs. How many were furloughed and get called back versus. How many were fired and have to go find a new job? No businesses. How many are temporarily dormant and spring back versus go bankrupt and get liquidated on those are the things that will determine how long and painful the economic slog out of this is sort of the same question to you. What do you see as the the long term impacts of the pandemic if it stopped today and we know that it won't but have long term impacts already been made and if it does go on if we have a slow slow return to More business as usual or if we have a second wave what you see is the long term impacts what could be fatally broken or potentially broken or or need to be have to be remade entirely. What if pandemic has shown is that we are all linked in a global chain of humanity adequate nor the weakest link and it breaks week. No suffer I very much hope that this is going to create a world of greater awareness of our connectivity and I hope that out of a renewed appreciation the need to think about the more vulnerable in society to think about trying to build more sustainable growth to recognizing that science matters to recognize that sometimes people have to had short term sacrifice and accept pain to avoid long time breath that my hope. I fear that what we may be heading for world. Where is also the more constrained whether it'd be more bitter fights how to divide up that pie? If it shrinks where you make it more intergenerational conflict and where the issue of rising debt and slowing growth is going to make all of those choices much harder and the other thing is that if someone who trained rich natural theology before becoming a journalist. People's time horizons have to cumbrae shortened people's geographical vision. Oddly enough have to come very much looking We're living moving towards greater localization vision not globalization and defense offers aces insecurity. I suspect that will not go away anytime soon. So the psychological aspect is going to be very difficult and that could definitely weigh on the economy and growth as well Jason to wrap this up I like the framing that Jillian on this of her hopes and fears. What are your hopes and fears and give us the fears? I so we can end on a hope. I mean the worst three years are that cove nineteen stays with us just a possibility that this is the beginning of more of these diseases emerging which is a possibility and that it encourages bioterrorism. And that's a possibility in terms of the hopes. I hope that we figure out a way to handle this on the health side therapeutic vaccine and the like the faster that happens the more we can contain the damage. I hope we come together in a global manner going forward to deal with infectious diseases but so many of the problems that we face that really do cross borders and don't lend themselves to a national solution and I hope people understand the government for whatever frustrations and bumps in the road along the way played a central role in saving millions of lives and in protecting the economy from something much worse and believe in its efficacy and importance going forward and now it's time to declare a winner remember. It's the side that pulls over the most votes between the first and the second vote that is named our winner we had to vote on this resolution. The global financial system was better prepared for the pandemic than two thousand eight. Let's look at the results before the debate in polling our online audience forty-three percent were four. It thirty one percent were against twenty. Six percent were undecided. So the debater for the resolution. Jason Firm in the first vote was forty three percent. Let's look at the second vote. His second vote he got fifty percent. He pulled up seven points which is now the number to beat. Let's see how Jillian Tech did against the resolution? Her first vote was thirty. One percent her second vote was forty percent she pulled up nine percentage points and that is enough to win Jillian Tet arguing against the resolution has one hour debate. Congratulations to her. And thank you. Also to Jason and thank you for joining us remember the online vote continues at Iq to us dot org so cast your second vote now. This debate was recorded on April. Twenty nine th twenty twenty at home. Intelligence squared is funded by listeners. Like you and by the Rosencrantz Foundation. Also at home. The intelligence squared. Us team Klay Connor. Our CEO Amy Craft is chief of Staff Shale Mara is director of editorial conor Kirkman. Creative Marketing Strategist Jennifer. Zilmer is senior researcher. Mary Dewey and Rob Christiansen our our radio producers. Robert Rosencrantz is our chairman. And I'm your host. John Donvan thank you so much for joining us.

Jillian Jillian Jason Firm Jason Fed Us Jason Furman pandemic John Donvan chairman Financial Times America China pain
Does The Deficit Matter?

The Indicator from Planet Money

09:27 min | 2 years ago

Does The Deficit Matter?

"Back when I was growing up in the eighties and nineties there were a few things that were just universally acknowledged as bad as evil number one fat, sandy not wanna eat fat. It was bad. There was no such thing as good fat. It was just all bad fat. And so in the store there was low fat everything there were these Lafayette cookies your snack cookies cardio. Yes. Like hockey pucks like had the consistency of packing phone. We're like frozen yogurt. Then it was like a low fat alternative to ice cream, which also kind of had the consistency of packing foam eighties. Eating a lot of stuff with the consisting of packing foam, like even low fat butter. You could've mentioned cholesterol, good, cholesterol, and bad cholesterol. Is at all bad. You know, that's that's another one for your list. That is Jason Furman. He's a professor of economic policy at the Harvard Kennedy School, and he also worked as an economist for the Obama administration. And we wanted to talk to Jason because he writes anything's a lot about another kind of universal evil that we had back in the eighties deficits the deficit is the shortfall between the tax revenue. The government collects in a given year and the money it spends when the government spends more money than it takes in. It has to borrow money to cover the shortfall that is the deficit, by the way, the deficit is not to be confused with the national debt. So the debt is like the amount of water in the bathtub and the deficit. Is like the amount of water. That's coming out of the tap in a given period of time and flowing into the bathtub to the debt is you're running total. The deficit is what you do in any given year politicians on the right on the left in the center. The one thing they could all agree on was the deficits were bad. It came up a lot deficit spending should not be a feature of budget. We have to cut the deficit because the more we spent paying off the debt the less tax dollars. We have to invest in jobs and education, the massive national debt, which we accumulated is the result of the government's high-spending diet. Well, it's time to change the diet and to change it in the right way. Government spending is a dangerous road. The deficits the people of America have been overcharged and on their behalf. I'm here asking for a refund, but now attitudes about budget deficits are evolving a lot. There's even a whole sort of tr. Trendy school of thought economics now, saying budget deficits, don't matter nearly as much as we thought that unless budget deficits lead to inflation. We can rack up all the deficits we want. No big deal. Jason Furman is not in that camp. But he says, you know, just like fat deficits are not the universal evil that we used to think they were. Although he did say that he didn't think it was an exact analogy it's a little bit different in that there. Probably is some timeless truth about dieting undefeated. I don't even think there is an underlying timeless truth because the world actually is changing and financial markets are functioning one way in the eighties and other way now and you need to. You know, change, your your an update, your ideas with with us changes in the world this indicated for planet money, I'm carseat, and I'm Stacey Vanik Smith. Dan, the show deficits why did everybody used to think deficits were bad, and what changed? Support for this podcast in the following message. Come from Jimmy Nye, the regulated exchange making it easy to add bitcoin and other crypto currencies to your portfolio, protecting your investments with oversight and state of the art cybersecurity open a free account at Jim ni- dot com slash indicator. Support also comes from WordPress dot com with powerful site building, tools and thousands of things that she was from users can launch site that's free to start with a room to grow. Get fifteen percent off any new plan. Purchase at WordPress dot com slash indicator. Today's indicator is a trillion as in a trillion dollars this year. The budget deficit is set to hit a trillion dollars. Jason Furman urine economist with Harvard's Kennedy School, you also served as an economist under President Obama trillion dollar sounds like a lot. That's scary Ohno's lot and that'll be popping for people absolately. Do I wish the deficit was smaller? Yes. Would I feel better about our economy? We had a lower debt as sheriff are Konami. Yes. So I feel like when I was growing up in eighties. The deficit was just this universally acknowledged terrible thing like the deficit was was bad. I feel like that his changed. But why has it changed? I mean, why did I mean it was really talked about. I think sort of this universal evil. Like, the one thing we could all grand was that the deficit was bad. Sometimes deficits can be good. Sometimes they can be bad. And sometimes they can be just not nearly as important as you'd like to think the time when they're good is in a recession you need to get yourself out of a recession. A'deficit means you're spending money or cutting taxes, that's helping the economy and in the nineteen eighties deficits back then really were a problem now deficits aren't causing high interest rates. So I don't think they're causing nearly the same magnitude of problems for the economy as they once were. Feel like they're kind of two parts of the deficit that people tend to worry about one is this kind of like there's almost sort of a morality like a moral principle at stake about deficits and the other one is just that sort of drags are Konami down. You could think about it in terms of morality because it can affect the distribution of income between generations. They're it depends on what you're doing it for if you're running a deficit to invest in infrastructure. You might actually be helping a future generation if you're running a deficit to give big tax cuts to people who are going to just run out and spend it today, you might be hurting a future generation. So I think there is a morality play between how this affects different generation. So what do you think is the best approach to the deficit right now? I mean, it sounds like maybe one extreme the other extreme don't like neither of those are good idea. What's a good idea? I can't give you. Scientific certainty. Exactly what the right way to handle the deficit is if you have a great new idea for college or a great new idea for social security or a great new tax cut. You wanna do then, you know, cut spending or raise taxes so that you're not adding to the deficit and making even higher than otherwise would have been that strikes. Middle course, it says you're not making a major exit for deficit reduction. You're just doing no harm. What I wouldn't do though is pass a law that makes that deficit even larger what are some good things about running a deficit. You know, the good is in a recession. It can help stimulate demand. Get people in businesses to spend more and help you get out of the recession in normal times. If you're using the deficit as a way to spend money on good things like infrastructure like scientific research, then it can actually make you richer in the future. Not. Poorer the flip side, the bad is if you're spending money on bad things, it can make future generations poorer, and it can drive up interest rates. Probably only happens a little, but it can that results in less business investment unless economic growth, you mentioned that like the economics of deficits have changed. How how have they changed? What has changed? And what is what does it mean for deficits the single most important number to know in? Judging country's fiscal situation is the difference between its interest rate and its growth rate 'cause if your interest rate is higher than your growth rate, your debt is going to be spiraling up as a share of the economy. If your interest rate is lower than your growth rate that helps contain how much your debt is rising relative to the economy right now in the United States growth rates are higher than interest rates, and that's helping us. To grow out of some of our debt burden and it's that key variable or minus Chee watching how that changes over time is I think a real key to understanding how much you should be worried about deficits at any point in time. Jason furman. Thank you so much. Thanks for having. This episode of the indicator was produced by Constanza Gherardo, edited by paddy Hirsch, our internet will Aruban and the indicator is a production of NPR. Nineteen sixty five darkened street corner in Selma, Alabama and murder. A new podcast. Exposes the lies that kept this murder from being solved and explores memory myth and accountability for a crime at the heart. The civil rights movement from NPR white lies. Listen and subscribe now.

Jason Furman Konami hockey Harvard Kennedy School NPR murder America Selma Stacey Vanik Smith United States Alabama Obama administration Chee Jimmy Nye professor Obama
Why Debt Isn't Always a Bad Thing

Deep Background with Noah Feldman

31:02 min | 11 months ago

Why Debt Isn't Always a Bad Thing

"From Pushkin Industries. This is deep background the show where we explore the stories behind the stories in the news. I'm Noah. Feldman our country is facing a genuinely challenging historical moment. There are two major stories that are preceding right now. The first is the protests, the demonstrations and in some instances looting triggered by the tragic death of George Floyd. We talked about that earlier this week with Vanita. Gupta and we're GONNA to continue to cover that story. The second story which has not gone away is the coronavirus pandemic and its consequences for the world today. We're GONNA focus on that story. The federal government has said that it's planning to borrow nearly three trillion dollars between April and June of this year to help businesses and workers affected by the coronavirus shutdown. That's a record breaking amount of money. Think of it this way. During the entirety of last year, the government borrowed one point two eight trillion dollars. That's compared to three trillion in three months. How worried do we need to be about the remarkable, indeed astonishing scope of our emerging national debt? In order to explore answer to this question both mainstream, and otherwise I'm joined by professor. Jason Furman of the Harvard Kennedy School. Jason served as President Obama's men of the Council of economic advisors from two thousand, thirteen to two, thousand, seventeen, effectively serving as the president's chief economist and a member of the cabinet. He's also the best macro economist at explaining things that I have ever met. Jason Thank. You so much for being here. We're obviously in an unprecedented situation of economic crisis with forty million people unemployed. That's nearly quarter of the workforce. And in that context, every economist that I know thinks that it's completely reasonable to spend the money that we're spending now. On some combination of a bailout slash life support system for the economy. What I'm curious about is. Is there a limit? Is there any maximum point beyond which we cannot go well? It sounds like you have great taste in the economists that you hang out with so congratulations on that. I don't think there is a limit to the amount of money that can be spent on effective measures. So I wouldn't think of it as a target. Nor would I say there's a ceiling. I would ask. The question is what I'm doing going to have a multiplier that's close to one or higher than one. In which case you can definitely do it because it means GDP will go up by more than debt, and it will actually help your fiscal sustainability. And then, if it doesn't have a multiplier more than one, you still might want to do it because you care about education, you care about protecting you know a family in need and the like. Don't put a budget constraint on it, but do ask real questions about whether what you're spending is useful as likely to help the economy or not. When I spoke to Larry Summers? It's now probably almost six weeks ago. He said listen. Nobody should get the idea that we're passing a stimulus. There's no stimulus here. There's just life support. And people need to stay alive, and so you need to spend on. That's a little different than the idea that this will have a multiplier of one. Yeah, so there is some evidence in the last several weeks that the days that people got checks for example from the economic stimulus payments, spending went up at certain big box stores, and the like I think that will be even more true going forward when you're more able to spend money so. To some degree, you know, economists use the term consumption smoothing. You don't want people to have to radically reduce their consumption and then radically raise it again. You want them to be able to smooth through shocks. If you're helping people smooth their consumption. You're helping them avoid. A naturally large reduction in it and you're actually helping the economy relative to what would happen otherwise, so I do think unemployment insurance, nutritional assistance money for states and localities. The evidence on all of those is that they do add more than a dollar to GDP per Dali's spend now does the dollar GDP get added six months from now rather than now? That's certainly possible. I don't know exactly what the timing is. What does the bill come? Due for all of this I mean the theory behind a multiplier of one greater. Is that at some point the government if it's? It's the lender or grant, or will get its money back, and if it's debt, I suppose it would ask its debts to be repaid. If it's in the form of grants, there would be more. GDP so we could get tax money. And then the government could pay itself back via the taxes for getting their process, right and second of all. Is there any time frame on that? That's logical, reasonable or do we just say we'll just wait until we can afford it. Yeah, there's two free ish lunch aspects to this and both of these free lunches have constraints on them. The first is that for fiscal sustainability. What you care about is the debt relative to the size of the economy. And so it's debt divided by GDP. If you do something that raises debt by less than it raises GDP, the denominator goes up more than the numerator and the debt to GDP ratio goes down. We're not in that situation now. Though it appears, overhead is certainly rising the question is would debt rise even more if we didn't do some of the fiscal measures we were doing. For some of the fiscal measures were doing especially, some of the ones that are more effective I think they're probably. The second is what is your interest rate after accounting for inflation that's called the real interest rate. And Right now, the real interest rate is negative. If the federal government borrows one hundred dollars today. A decade from now it has to pay back about ninety five dollars adjusted for inflation worth of stuff. So the question you want to ask yourself in that environment is what would you rather have a hundred dollars today? Or Ninety five dollars a decade from now most people would answer hundred dollars today especially given all the needs we have. Now, there's a limit on those. If you do things that are ineffective, you don't get that. You could drive up interest rates if you try to do too much. If you try to expand the economy beyond where it wants to be, you could get large and increasing amounts of inflation, said none of that is a blanket unlimited check, but for well-designed policies within the regime were in. There is a free ish lunch aspect to what's being done with respect to the second Frisch launch the negative interest rate is that based on our projection of inflation is likely to be over the next ten years, and if the rates were to change, if there was to be deflation or just much much lower minimal inflation with that turned out not to be the case that lunch would not. Not have been as free as it appears so the government mostly issues what are called nominal bonds, which is they have an interest rate in the interest rate is just the way we'd normally understand the interest rate. Some of what the government issues are inflation index bonds, and they pay an interest rate, which is will pay the inflation rate plus blank, or we'll play the inflation rate minus blank. Right now the interest rate on those inflation index bonds is negative so quite literally the government, no matter what happens to inflation is it wanted to issue more of those bonds and might change the interest rate on them. If you tried to issue too many, but at least on those bonds right now you could lock in. Negative interest rate but I. DON'T WANNA. Push this too far. You're certainly right. Interest rates could change in the future you know the Fed could stop trying to keep them low it CETERA. I've spent thirty five years watching every single interest rate forecast anyone has made. has been too high and interest rates have come in below rather than above it, but that doesn't just because my whole adult life has been like that doesn't mean it's a timeless truth that we should count on. How long does this large debt overhang half to last? And how big does it have to be the certain economic theory that says standard one that when you shock hits your debts, going to be higher as a result of it and you actually, it's okay if you lock in at that new higher level of debt. In this case I think it's completely plausible that a decade from now. The United States would have a debt to GDP ratio of one hundred and fifty percent. Which is higher than we've ever had in our history, but something that the U K had for centuries and centuries and centuries, while it was the world's preeminent power, and so one hundred fifty percent of GDP may be okay. It may be something that were able to get used to. It would depend on interest rates staying below the growth rate to make it at. At all feasible to stay at that level, there still need to be some adjustment. Some additional revenue or spending cuts to even stabilize at one hundred and fifty percent to GDP, but I think we're GONNA. Find Ourselves a decade from now. That's going to probably look perfectly reasonable. When if you'd told people even a year ago, they would have thought it was nuts. The British Empire example I have to say it makes me a bit nervous because it was at least a theory of the British Empire during this period of huge debt that the reason they were borrowing money, as they were in the process of conquering the known world, which they were in fact, doing that was executive period in which the British empire came to be the empire over which the son didn't set. Set and the British were very explicit that the goal of their empire was to enhance their commercial opportunities in success they took over a country, or in one case, a whole subcontinent with a specific goal of explaining it for its resources in the case of India textiles, roughly speaking in the case of Africa. They didn't make it over the whole continent, but minerals. They saw that debt as an engine of growth. I'm wondering if you think there's anything even slightly comparable for the US in this period, I mean we wouldn't have I'd say a business plan for very substantial growth that would justify borrowing that money. In our case, it seems more like we're barring that money now to overcome the shock. Yeah so first of all lesson learned never bring up history with somebody that knows history. The UK also had debt. Britain had debt off often two fifty three fifty percent of GDP that period of time, so this would even be a decent amount below it but I certainly agree with you that adding to debt is much much more appealing when you're adding debt in order to help economic growth than when you're adding debt to for example, give tax cuts to high income household, so they can consume more in the present. will be back in a moment. Let's talk about transfer. Wise the smartest way to send and receive money internationally. If, you've ever had to move money across porter's chances. Are you're haunted? Haunted by hidden fees whether you use your bank or another provider, they like the hit an extra fee and the exchange rate, and you pay too much. And if you didn't notice well, that's the whole point. Transfer wise is different. You always get the real exchange rate when you send money to over seventy countries, you pay one super low fee and hold onto more of your money. Transfer wise also offers an easy alternative to opening a bank account a new country. They're multi-currency account. Let's hold up to forty five parentheses at once and convert between them at any time. You can even get your own bank details for the US UK euro-zone in Australia. Which means you receive money from those countries for free? It's great for freelancers or anyone who works internationally. But don't take my word for it. Transfer wise over six million customers who save three million dollars every day in bad rates and hidden fees. That's over a billion dollars in savings every year. Try them out today and get your first transfer for free by visiting transfer wise dot, com slash podcast. I want to turn out to a topic which when I bring up with our economics, colleagues at Harvard and MIT people get red in the face, and I want to bring it up in a way it so that nobody has to get rid of the phase, but it's I, think it's important, because it's in the public discourse now, and that's mt or modern monetary theory now as recently as a year or two ago. If it even came up in conversation, my anecdotal report is at people, just roll their eyes and said this is a crackpot theory, nor reason to worry about it too much. And yet now out in the public discourse, there has become a kind of trope of people saying. Oh, well, we're all MTV people now we all think that the government can always print money to get itself out of any debt crisis that it's and that's a wildly oversimplified account of what the theory is. And even just saying that again makes our economist colleagues go a little crazy, so I wonder if you do the fighting for us, it's hard to ask somebody to summarize of you that he may think is completely wrong, but would you least give us? A caricatured version of what people mean when they say oh, we can print money to get out of this, and would you give us some one on one account of why that's wrong? If indeed it is sure and I should say that I personally think MTA is like a stop clock. That's right twice. A day at this moment is roughly right. Lots of other theories would have gotten to to the same place, but that's broadly speaking might take so what's the theory that is right twice a day number one. Mt Says that rather than have the Fed be the first line of Defense and business cycles. The Treasury should be the first line of Defense in business cycles. That's. That's one thing that MTV says so. The Treasury is the first line of defense. What should the Treasury do? In a business cycle downturn? The Treasury should cut taxes in downturn. The Treasury should increase spending in a downturn, and the treasury should keep doing that until it sees inflation rising, and then if inflation is rising, where above where it wants to go, then you stop that process, and maybe even reverse it a little bit by raising taxes and cutting spending, so the thing we normally think of the Fed raising and lowering interest rates in order to keep the economy on track MT has that primarily happening with the Treasury in the congress, raising and lowering taxes and spending. A second thing amendment. Is the idea that there is no constraint on what the government does in terms of people being unwilling to lend to the government. Because ultimately the central. Bank can always print the. If it wants to, and so you don't need to worry about. Will anyone lend? You don't need to worry about. WILL GOVERNMENT SPENDING DRIVE UP? Interest rates all the traditional concerns instead. The only thing you should worry about is that. If you spend too much, you'll get inflation. Part is the part that sounds very counterintuitive to sort of the very simplified idea that when governments get into trouble, because they owe too much money and try to print money to get out of it and pay their debts that then drives a cycle of hyperinflation. The gives you Argentina or Germany between the war, so there is denying dot intuition right one of the problems with MTV is it presents itself as a timeless truth. And a lot of the people that support it you know will point to all sorts of identities and equations, and they're like the law of gravity. They should always hold. And the fact is they hold in certain countries at certain times, so if Argentina tried to MT, the results would be abysmal at various points in history when countries have tried to do it. The results have been abysmal. Maybe the United. States can do it right now, but then that begs the question you know. Why is it in some circumstances? You can borrow a lot in other circumstances. You can't borrow a lot and. and Mt doesn't have a whole lot to say an answer to that question, because it presents itself as a timeless truth, so you coming to the third component. Yeah, and the third component of MD is generally a belief that the economy is persistently for very long periods of time operating below its capacity with excess slack with excess on employment, and so it's not just when you're in a recession or coming out of it. That you can do fiscal stimulus extra tax cuts, extra spending increases, but if you're planning health system. Single pay or whatever it is for the next twenty years you can even plan ten or fifteen years from now to do deficit spending because ten or fifteen years from now we're probably going to need fiscal stimulus also, because the unemployment rate is almost always too high. Is there a single identifiable analytic error here or is it? A series of claims that aren't empirically for now is the kind of thing where one can say. MT is wrong because. And is the because in the nature of an analysis of the world, or is in the nature of an analysis of economic principles. I mean MTA shifts around a lot, so it's a little bit hard to pin down. Is Not clear. What evidence you could give to an m tear. That would cause her him. To change their mind, and just to go back to the three things, I said who should take the lead in fighting recessions. For Normal Garden Variety recession, the Fed actually it's okay for the Central Bank to take the lead raising and lowering interest rates right now. Interest rates are at zero, so you do need the treasury and the Congress so MTA is right for the moment. That doesn't mean it's always right. You know we've already talked MTA. Says No constraint on borrowing Argentina faces a lot of constraints on borrowing, so that's not a timeless truth. That is something situational. And finally the claim that we're below full employment. That's certainly true right now. I! Think, that's going to be true two years from now. If you're making a health plan that's going to last for the next fifty years, I think it would be really rash to assume that's going to be the case for the next fifty years and see don't ever need to pay for that health plan. On the constraints on borrowing, which is also thematically where we began. I'm trying to understand from a conceptual standpoint. How we should think about constraints on borrowing I mean they create intuition that people have is. You can borrow as much money as people will rationally lend you. If they have enough information to make the prediction, you'll pay it back. The intuition is that borrowing is not at all about a free lunch. Because at some point must be paid back under the terms of the law, you can get a really good deal, which makes it as you said a free ish lunch, but it's not a free lunch in the sense that something must be paid back, and that thing which must be paid back is essentially that which has been agreed to pay back up front. In your view, is there any escape from that idea or is that closer to a law of gravity in the context of borrowing? I think that's that's broadly right. I tend to think and this is not based on incredibly strong evidence. This is based on sort of common sense, and that's the little bit worrying to have to rely on that. It also depends on the circumstances. If every one of the rich countries in the world is borrowing, more than people aren't going to say the United States is responsible. If the United States is the only country in the world doing it, they'll say. Say. You know what we don't WanNA buy US debt. We'd rather buy European debt. We'd rather buy Japanese debt, so there's a little bit of a strength in numbers, and this is what this is a constraint on individual countries we actually do see an individual country in Europe, has a harder time borrowing to get out of a downturn because people can shift away from lending to that country to another one. You see the same thing with the US states. Says a little bit of a safety in numbers. There's a little bit of a if it looks like you're borrowing because you needed to. Because something bad happen to you or you needed to do something about something bad that that's okay. Whereas if the United States had woken up, there was no pandemic, and we just went nuts and decided we were going to increase our debt to one hundred and fifty percent of GDP to build a. Big Monument the leader, or something like that, financial markets might have been more punishing of that type of debt, and then finally trajectory if they knew we were stabilizing and one hundred and fifty percent of GDP for debt. Maybe people would have patients with that if they could see no end in sight, and it was going to two hundred, three, hundred, five, hundred thousand percentage GDP. Maybe they wouldn't like it so i. do think borrowing is who's willing to lend to you. WHO's willing to lend to? You depends on circumstances. Are you in good company? Are you doing it for good reason and do you have some plausible exit strategy from all of it? The reason I ask this. Even though maybe it sounds to elementary, is that. Sort of in the back of my mind always have this desire not to be what the ordinary non economist will probably have been. When the world gradually went off the gold standard, the ordinary person, the non economists intuition was well. This is just necessary. There has to be something of value, and unless everything is in reference to that thing Evalu-, the whole system will break down and of course that turned out. To be true for me. One of the takeaways from that historical takeaway is the ordinary non economists should not completely trust intuitions about questions like this, which is exactly why why asking you about it is there on the horizon, a similar kind of intuitive error that ordinary people are making about the economy. You know similar to the old intuition that of course there had to be a gold standard or or a sterling standard. Just the notion that when times are tough, you should tighten. The belt is just a very very powerful one President Obama used that line a few times in speeches in maybe it was two, thousand, nine or two, thousand ten, and he understood these issues incredibly well, and was doing are trying to do all of the right things, and were you there in the Council of Economic Advisers? Waving your arms in the air and saying don't say that. Some of us were not thrilled with that vocabulary, and it just shows you how powerful the poll of! The family analogies Joan apply at the level of the government, because what the government is trying to do is take a set of people that aren't working instead of factories that are utilized and reconnect. And with that. You'd go back to the free lunch type of stuff we were talking about before. That doesn't have an exact analogue in the case of a household. Among mainstream. Economists are people you would consider mainstream economists. Is there right now a very active debate or disagreement? The UC about what should happen now in over the next several years, or do you think we're in a moment of relative consensus and I'm under after you answer that if you would compare that to weigh, things looked after the two thousand and eight crisis. So I talked to people who had the job I had under President Obama under President Bush, and they have pretty similar views in terms of the need to provide large-scale relief to families, the importance of relief for state and local governments, the need for large amounts of liquidity for businesses. My perception is there's more consensus now and in part that's because it's just totally unambiguous that the economy shutdown. There's no debate over whether you know growth going to be negative. Is it not going to be negative on? There's no debate that the fed by itself can't handle the problem. The Federal Reserve is begging for more tax cuts or government, spending increases and an insofar debates. Debates among economists now they go in lots of different directions there economists on the far left, and the further right that light Krantz to businesses as a way to get businesses through this other economists that really don't so. Some of the debates are more scrambled ideologically than they have been in the past as well. The grants to businesses debate is not breaking down along standard ideological lines. It's not Democrats say give it right to the workers, and Republicans say give it to the businesses or it. Does it roughly follow those lines? Bernie Sanders has cosponsored legislation in the Senate that in its original version would have given a lot of money to companies like Disney. Not just to pay their furloughed employees, but to cover some of their operating expenses as well so it is logically scrambled in a way that's reassuring. I suppose it's always challenging to the layman when the experts are disagreeing, but it's nice when they're not disagreeing along relatively familiar expected partisan lines that makes it look like it's not being driven by interest politics, but by genuine intellectual disagreement. I think there's a certain amount about that and I. Think you know in some ways is a very novel type of Economic Crisis In this some tools that are well trodden and well understood, and there's others that people are trying to event to deal with this novel situation, and you know hate to say. It was sort of interesting at a time like this and unfortunately only have a better idea when people right the wonderful papers about everything that was done a decade from now. What am I not asking you that I should be asking you. We've seen a larger fiscal response in the United States than we've seen in Europe. We've seen a very large in Europe, but we've seen a very very large one in the United States. Response from the United States has been larger than we've ever done in our past. It's larger than what other countries are doing now. We've also seen a smaller reduction in economic activity in the United States than in Europe. Partly. That's that we didn't do as effective lockdown, and we end up getting bitten by that later on, if this too much virus out there, but in part the evidence is and we sort of hate to ever look anything positive or good that we did. We must have liked to lament and talk about everything wrong and change to date. We've done a decent job protecting American households from a fall in disposable personal income, too many of fallen through the cracks. It's very very far from perfect. But compared to almost any recession in the past households have been better protected. From this one, even though it's a much deeper recession and have been better protected even than households in Europe have been, and that's a good thing. We should pause for a second to celebrate that success, but only for a second, because all of that ends at the end ally, and so a lot more is needed to continue with that success. Thank you very much for that very cogent analysis I can see why they put you in charge of teaching. Thousand Students Economics every earlier, spectacularly great explainer. Thank you very much, thank you. Maybe because Jason Furman has such a calming voice. When you listen to him, you start to think that very extreme things are actually gonna be alright. I certainly hope that that turns out to be the case. Listening to Jason I was very struck by his suggestion that any amount of money that we borrow is rational provided, we can make a credible prediction that barring that money will lead to what he called a multiplier of one or close to one. That is the opportunity eventually to pay it back by virtue of the effects of the borrowing. That sensible logically, but of course the devil is in the details because it raises the question of just whether we can get our money back over time. Jason emphasized that when it comes to borrowing, there isn't actually such a thing as a true free lunch because the money will have to be paid back eventually, but as he said given that it is possible for the government right now to borrow money at negative interest rates under current conditions, even the trillions of dollars of being and the potentially trillions of dollars of debt that we're taking on May, actually be affordable and capable of being paid back in the future. With, respect to M. T.. Jason was pretty clear that he thinks it's just a clock. That's right twice a day which is to say that T. doesn't express correct principles of economics that are generalized, but rather might under certain circumstances describe events that are the circumstances that exists now. Ultimately the consensus that currently exists among mainstream. Economists suggest that we're GONNA. Go on borrowing, possibly a lot more and more of that will have to take place in July when the current bailout money begins to run out. We will continue to follow the question of borrowing and our economy, and its relationship to employment going forward. I promised to come back to you soon with a new analysis. Until the next time we speak, be careful. Be Safe and be well. Deep background is brought to you by Pushkin Industries. Our producer is lydia gene caught with research. Help from zooey win and mastering by Gambro and Martine. Gonzalez are show. Runner is Sophie mckibben. Our theme music is composed by Gary. Special thanks to the Pushkin brass. Malcolm glad well Jacob Weisberg at yellow. I'm Noah Feldman I? Also write a regular column for Bloomberg opinion which you can find at Bloomberg, dot com slash felt. To discover Bloomberg's original slate of podcasts go to Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. And one last thing I just wrote. A book called the Arab winter. A tragedy I would be delighted. If you checked it out, you can always let me know what you think on twitter about this episode or the book or anything else. My handle is no are Felton. Is Deep background.

United States Federal Reserve Treasury federal government Jason Furman Jason Europe Pushkin Industries Mt George Floyd MTA MTV President Obama Vanita Argentina UK Harvard Kennedy School
Season Preview: New Year, New Debates

Intelligence Squared U.S. Debates

03:44 min | 2 years ago

Season Preview: New Year, New Debates

"Two thousand nine hundred with intelligence squared US. That's where we are. I'm John donvan. Welcome to our winter spring season. We are kicking off with three debates in a row in New York City. So you here in New York, you'd wanna get tickets. They're still some available, and we would love to see you out there. I would love to see you out there in our audience where beginning the season with this resolution ten years after the global financial crisis. The system is safer. Well, is it or is it not? That's the question will be taking on one of our debaters. Jason Furman has been with us many times before he was chairman of the council of economic advisers under President Obama. We are delighted to have him back also returning on the other side arguing against the financial times, Jillian tat shells be saying that we're not safer. This debate. Also includes Neil cash, Gary he is the current president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. And rounding out that debate will have Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff following that. We'll take on the. Solution. Don't bring extinct creatures back to life. Yes. That is a thing. There are people out there working on bringing back creatures that are extinct like the dodo bird and the woolly mammoth and one of them is a guy named Stewart brand is really really well known as an environmentalist and founder of the whole earth catalog, and he is joining leading geneticists and the founder of the personal genome project. Dr George church to argue that we should be bringing these extinct creatures back to life. Georgia's actually working to revive the mammoth right now in a program using crisper technology. So if you come to that debate, you learn a lot about what that means. His opponents think this is a terrible idea. They include Dr Ross MacPhee who is curator at the American Museum of natural history and Evelyn biologist. Dr Lynn Rothschild who is currently a senior scientist at NASA Ames research center. So a lot about science a lot about ethics and some interesting technology after that we're going to be hosting our first unresolved debate of the season. Where we go through a series of resolutions in the course of an evening, not just a single resolution. This will feature five debaters and four different resolutions on the topic of the US Technomic Cold War with China this debates going to include the Eurasia group's, Ian, Bremmer former under secretary of defense, Michelle Florida bestselling author and leading global strategy advisor Parag Khanna and former assistant secretary of state Susan Thornton. Also MIT's you Shang long. That's going to be a great one. So they're all going to be great and the rest of the season two. We'll be back with more information about those. But you can stay in touch with us and get updates on our debates by visiting IQ to US dot org. That's cute. The number two US dot org and join our mailing list. Again, if you live in New York, come see us live, you can get tickets for those by texting the numbers, I q and the number two two seven nine seven nine seven nine and you'll get a link to buy tickets sent right to you. Or if you really enjoy our series, and you want to join the community that makes our. It's possible. You can make a donation to become a member of our friends program benefits that come with membership include things like the IP tickets to our life debates invitations to special cocktail, receptions, and celebrations with our debaters and other members of our community and recognition on our podcast and radio show. And also, I'll get to meet you in person, which I would really enjoy for those of you under forty we just launched a new giving level for young professionals. We are calling that our prodigy level. There's more information about that on our website, I to US dot org, and in the show notes two thousand nineteen we're launching we think it's going to be our best season ever. Panoply.

President Obama US Jason Furman New York New York City John donvan founder Kenneth Rogoff Dr Ross MacPhee Dr Lynn Rothschild president Dr George church MIT Parag Khanna Georgia Minneapolis Eurasia group assistant secretary Federal Reserve Bank
Amanpour: Oxiris Barbot, Dr. Sonia Adesara, Jason Furman and David Axelrod

Amanpour

57:03 min | 1 year ago

Amanpour: Oxiris Barbot, Dr. Sonia Adesara, Jason Furman and David Axelrod

"Hello everyone and welcome to unfold live from London. What's coming up? The ever-deepening Corona virus fallout threatening healthcare systems economies so social and political infrastructure around the world. New York City goes into lockdown and the health. Commissioner will join me plus the UK goes its own way including U-TURNS adding more confusion to its response. A senior National Health Service doctor on the front lines joins me. Then no matter what. Central banks do global markets. Keep going down top economist. Jason Furman gives us his tape and the presidential race. David axelrod format campaign manager and senior advisor to President. Barack Obama tells me the virus will change the twenty twenty election. Welcome to the program everyone. I'm Christiane Amanpour in London where the British government is stepping up its response to the corona virus infections and the rapidly escalating number of cases in the West is transforming life for hundreds of millions of people. There are around one hundred. Seventy thousand confirmed cases across the world right now and the death toll has jumped more than sixty four hundred for the first time cases outside. China outnumber those inside as that country and many Asian neighbors get a grip on this virus while in America. Several large states are in major lockdown with entertainment hospitality schools and large gatherings banned. This is key to stopping the spread but so too is testing as we hear again from the World Health Organization you cannot fight a fire blindfolded and we cannot stop despondent me if we don't know who is infected have a simple message for all countries test test test and that is just not happening. And WE'LL EXPLORE WHY We'll also explore the cataclysmic economic impact mid sobering warnings of a deep global recession. To come for the first time in this unprecedented global health crisis president trump and leaders of the top G seven economies met online to try to coordinate a joint response meantime cities and states in the United States are taking matters into their own hands with lockdowns and in New York. The governor is calling for the US Army Corps of Engineers to do what it does best get building and retrofitting to provide desperately needed. Hospital beds. Joining me right now. With answers is New York. City's Health Commissioner Dr Serious Babo. Welcome Commissioner from City Hall. Thank you let me start by asking you where you think. Your city is right now. We hear oversee today that the Tri State Area New York Connecticut and New Jersey have gone into a coordinated response banning gatherings of more than fifty and doing as I outlined a number of social distancing measures. What is the situation right now? In your view right now. We have documented widespread community transmission. Which means that it's more likely for a New Yorker to contract covert nineteen from someone here already in New York City then from someone who's T- bringing it in from the outside and as a result of having community wide transmission we are now taking very significant steps in order to slow down the spread of that illness as well as reduce the potential harm to New Yorkers. And that's why we've closed schools. That's why we've taken extreme measures overnight. And can you imagine any more measures being taken and I just want to ask you because you heard the head of the World Health Organization. Say It isn't just social distancing it's also self-isolation when necessary and that's not people haven't kind of quite go to grit with the importance of that but most especially the idea of testing and that seems to be a massive hole in this in this response. What can you tell me about testing? And whether it's possible that you might get any new kids so in the immediate period Early on in the investigation or the outbreak rather testing was really very critical and right now given the widespread community transmission that we have. We are pivoting to focus testing on those need. It the most Simply because there are concerns about ensuring that those individuals that are not getting better have access to care and importantly have access to testing so from our estimation or from our stance. It's really critical that the federal government moved more quickly in expanding access to automation in these tests so rather than having to wait three or four days for results. We can get them in a matter of hours. I just want to point out you know in your areas not exactly in your area but very close to New York is Pennsylvania and they're the penn medical Area there there are anecdotal reports people who are teams of talk to nurses on the frontline. Saying they just don't even have the proper moths. Flimsy things that you can put on for you know a dental appointment but the kind of stuff that frontline medical healthcare professionals trying to deal with this kind of virus need and they just don't have it. What is the State of preparedness and safety for your healthcare workers? Currently the use of proper personal protective equipment is really paramount to ensuring the safety stability of our healthcare workforce and we over the last several years. Have Put together a supply of these masks so that our health care workforce have appropriate access to surgical masks to higher levels of mass. But certainly if we get the number of cases that we anticipate getting we're very concerned about the ongoing supply and so that's another area where we need the federal government to step in and to ensure that whether it's New York City Pennsylvania or any other jurisdiction. There's no question about having a potential shortage of really critical personal protective equipment that will ensure the safety and security of our healthcare workforce commissioner on the World Health Organization has said again that every government needs to be an all government approach every arm and aspect of government needs to be directed to fighting this virus. Do you feel that? In the United States there is such a nationwide effort. Well first let me start off here in New York City. Our mayor has mobilized every aspect of government to be working on addressing code nineteen in New York City I would love to say that I am seeing that similar approach across the United States and I think that is an area where having more leadership at the federal level would certainly help us all have consistency across various jurisdictions. Well I guess I hear you reading between the lines. Saying that. That's not the case and Governor Cuomo said that this is not about you know one st doing something one city doing something one area in a city. Doing something different it has to be a coordinated federal approach in light of such a massive emergency so he called for for instance the president to authorize the Army Corps of Engineers to build an retrofit whatever areas that can be Provided to make them into you know emergency hospitals fever centers and beds beds. Let me just show you what he said as you probably know. But let's play again for our viewers what he said today. We have an impending catastrophe when this wave of growth crashes on the hospital system and we don't have the capacity start now bringing that army corps of Engineers. This is what they do they build. I'll give them dormitories build. Temporary medical facilities. I mean presumably. You agree with that right. We are in active conversations with all of the intensive care units of hospitals here in New York City To ensure that we have an appropriate and adequate supply of Intensive Care Unit beds. But certainly I agree with the governor that if we get the number of cases that are anticipated we will need federal support to ensure that no resident of New York state. New York City goes without the services healthcare services that they will need in this pandemic. So what is your? What is your sort of diagramming imaging? What kind of casualties are you expecting? What is your worst case? Scenario YOUR BEST CASE SCENARIO. And how many beds do you have? How many respirators do you have? You know part of the challenge of really projecting what those numbers will be is that we've never been in this situation before and we are paying very close attention to ensuring that We are matching our intensive care unit support to the number of people that we need. Currently we know we have roughly twelve hundred beds that are at the appropriate level of isolation. That's called for Additionally we have the best healthcare delivery system in the world I would argue here in New York City but the truth of the matter is that it's very hard to project exactly. How many of those intensive care beds we will need. And that's why we agree. With the governor's statement that we the worst thing we can do is under react to this pandemic. We need to have very aggressive forward leaning approach to ensure that if and when we need those beds we will have them. Twelve hundred beds. Do not sound does not sound very much and I just want to put this to you because obviously people are very concerned that even in major democracies and major economies that the United States the healthcare system will become overwhelmed on the Neo Congresswoman Alexandria quo Cossio. Cortes WanNa know. One major reason why South Korea has had a stellar rapid response and quickie produced and scaled up to ten thousand tests. Today they have a single payer medicare for all system. We don't remember why it's so important to fight for healthcare as a human right. I mean this crisis has exposed the deficiencies on some of them in the American healthcare system is there. I mean it's too soon stroke about a learning experience. But do you think that you a you will get what you need for this crisis and will it change the way governments invest in the healthcare system. I think that's a really important question. And it is important to note that since the economic recession of two thousand nine there has been a systemic disadvant- disinvestment in the public health system. All of the dollars are going to the healthcare delivery system when in reality we need stronger support in the public health system here in New York City. We're very fortunate that we have one of the Best Public Health. Care delivery systems but that in and of itself is not enough. We need to ensure that we have strong public health support because addressing this pandemic is certainly critical to have a strong healthcare workforce but it's also critical to have the public health supports that will enable testing and that will enable providing public education in real time to communities. All of that is important. And let me also add that? We are Our mayor has called for nationalizing the production of ventilators again to ensure that we are all focused. Laser focus on The fact that when and if we need that kind of support we may not have the traditional beds to us but we can have a tents where people can and will have access to the intensive care services that they may need commissioner. Bob Oh we wish you good luck and we'll be checking in with you. Thank you very much for being with US tonight. Everyone Poppy Harlow here this week on. Cnn's boss fouls podcast we sit down with WNBA. Commissioner Cathy Engelbert. She is the first woman to hold that title commissioner of the Wnba a move that empowers women in professional sports. She opens up about her personal relationship with Kobe. Bryant and what he and his thirteen year old daughter. John a meant for the future of women's basketball. We also get into the tough negotiations around the new collective bargaining agreement that has left players with higher salaries and paid family. Leave she says players in the League are activists and take a stand on social issues and then wait until you hear the story about her father and why he turned down an opportunity to play in the NBA. Help you can check it out subscribe to boss fouls today. The wait is over coming to H. L. N. All new episodes of forensic files follow the evidence and crack the case forensic files to Sundays at Tatton only on eight at the making of CNN presents the story of the world's most famous royal family. The windsors inside the Royal Dynasty Sundays at ten on CNN while others lockdown to try and contain the virus the UK has been an outline by remaining. Open now though. It's doing a bit of an about face. Prime Minister Boris Johnson urging people to quote stop or unnecessary social contact and turning against mass gatherings. Will this be enough to counter the disease? Well joining me from the. Uk's frontlines is the National Health Service Dr Sonia Zara. Welcome to the program Dog Cassara. Thank you for having me. So you've been in in the emergency care your frontline. Dr Are here in part of London. Can you give me a lay of the land? Just just paint a picture of what's happening in the hospitals now particularly the ones that you're out So the whole health service nationalist herring four for this virus. We've known for quite a few weeks at this viruses. Coming and preparations are happening You'll start to save the next few weeks. Things like routine operations being canceled because you want to try and free up. I see pets. There's talk about bringing in Steph. Retired staff type doctors and retired Nazis. And because we worried about I'm short of healthcare staff and we used to. Seeing certain connection the community be counseled and outpatient services counseled again trying to free up stuff and to open up the capacity particularly around our hospitals and intensive care units. Now look the world and certainly Great Britain points to the. Nhl System has been one of the best public health care systems in the world. All you confident that you have what it takes. You just heard the health commissioner in New York City. They do not have enough beds. The governor's called four the federal army to be deployed to do what it does build emergency beds for for those who get sick. Do you have enough frontline staff. Are they protected enough? Certainly testing is not happening. Can you just tell us what you have? And what are the biggest challenges? I guess just listening to your previous guest. I feel very lucky to be working in the National Health Service in UK. Because is we do have a world class service and everyone has access to it free healthcare. That's free community care. Three intensive care free access to testing. And so we're very lucky to have that and also because we have a nationalized healthcare system where the response to be coordinated nationally. So we're able to move stuff from different units. Were able to work together. And we've able to set up community service says we've got an NHL one service which allows people cheapie speak to healthcare professional without going in soup and able to have a very coordinated action plan to this am very quickly but there are difficulties. We have our health care. Service for the past decade has been undefended ply to this our healthcare service was did have quite severe staff shortages across the healthcare service and many of line staff have been making a lot of noise over the past few years that we do not have enough hospital beds compared to other countries in Europe and intensive care beds is one of the areas where we do have one of the least number of beds Passan compared to other European countries Germany for example has four times the number of intensive care beds than having said that there were plans being put in place now to increase capacity so unless we all increasing sense of cabinets We buy we are created by moveon. Sater's and we're trying to train up stuff to use these ventilators but it is going to be a difficult few weeks and you're talking about testing so there has been decision made last week to stop testing in the community and the testing is just going to be focused. Now people getting into those little again. I think. Ask capacity issue. But that's that's another problem and then the other issue that I heard you talk about protective equipment and it does concern made that healthcare professionals in the country are not been given adequate protective equipment. And that's something that again calling on government to ensure that all healthcare professionals how protective equipment to make sure that they're not putting their health at risk. I mean it really does sound a massive mountain to climb and there are dire predictions. I mean the Guardian newspaper has seen a report from public health. England that says the KRONA VIRUS IN THE UK? The epidemic could last until next spring and could lead to seven point. Nine million people being hospitalized it in other words the briefing also suggests that health chiefs are braced for as many as eighty percents of Britain's become infected with krona virus over that time what in terms. I mean you've just explained the challenges in terms of capacity beds testing equipment etc ventilators. What about lots of people want to know? Is it just people who show symptoms who could could could spread it or is it a symptomatic as well? There's a lot of confusion about what actually who the dangerous one so to speak. Yeah I think there was a lot of confusion because I think this is a new virus so we are learning as we go along with this now. We think that there is an incubation period for up to fourteen days so by incubation period it means that you have the virus but you're not showing symptoms and thinking is actually quite likely that in that incubation period you may be able to spread the virus so. I've just had before coming into the studio and that the government advice has now changed so previously the advice. It's been nice if you have symptoms. Then you need to self isolate and now ahead the government advice if someone in your family that has symptoms than we would like the whole family everyone else around the house to self isolate so this is a an I asked you to isolate for fourteen days so this is a big ask but it's important that the reason why they serve isolation is so important is because I'm sure you've you know the numbers but in reality rate here is about one percent about five percent of people when need critical care support and about ten percent of cases. We need admission to hospital. Now as we've seen other countries aspire this has potential to spread very quickly it's very infectious virus. It's very easy to spread. And if we start to get lots of cases very quickly our healthcare system in the UK. And I'm sure in the. Us could become overwhelmed very very quickly. And then you could then see getting preventable deaths not just in corona virus but of course some other conditions as well if you don't have capacity of space available in your hospitals so it's so so important that we try and slow down how quickly this virus spreads to try and reduce the number of admissions to hospital so that we don't overwhelm and crash the healthcare system. That's why we're having these social social isolation and policies putting forward and would like to see from all governments across the world to help people save isolates for example. I work in London and I know that there are many families. If you ask them to sell isolate the two weeks not go to work. That means they'll be struggling to put food on the table so we need to ensure that people have enough sick income getting support financially to to able to self isolate and do the things that we need them to do to ensure that we try and slow down the spread of this virus and prevent deaths. And if you look at other countries is possible if you look at China South Korea and Singapore they have managed to slow down the spread of the virus and Medusa mortality rate. We can do it. We just need fast action from our government right. Well that's the key isn't it and the World Health Organization said the same. It has to be. It's going to be a massive political commitment. Not Just a resources commitment. Not just testing commitment. Which we've said is simply not happening. There is not enough testing. And that's causing a huge amount of concern within your your your business in other words the healthcare business and obviously people on the ground but you know Britain. We've been sitting here for several days. Being told don't go don't ban. Schools don't banned gatherings you know businesses normal. We want to have this herd immunity. However they think they're gonNA do that in an untested situation and now it looks like they're changing. So I want you medical opinion on the idea that somehow eighty percent of US women to get infected in this country to to create a herd immunity. And the fact that they they seem to be trying to change this now that they want self-isolation and social distancing does seem stretch. She has changed as I had. I listened to the Health Secretary yesterday and he said that this new head. Immunity is no longer there strategy. I'm not an epidemiologist so I'm not. I don't have the access to the data that our chief medical officer chief scientific officer have have access to so I think we do need to trust our experts on this but I guess I can just talk for expertise of working on the front line and that our healthcare service will not be able to cope if we start to see large numbers of cases. Super my point of view from frontline workers point to be. We have to slow down the spread of the virus and in my opinion governments to do everything they can to slow down the spread of this virus. Because I guess for me. One death one preventable death is one death too many so we into everything we can to slow down the spread and if you just look at it today if you look at where. Italy was two weeks ago to obviously is now two weeks ago. They had a handful number of a handful of cases. Now they have a thousand deaths of a ten thousand cases. We do not want to be in that situation. I've heard from colleagues in Italy that they are in a really difficult situation and having to choose who gets admitted to. It ourselves getting situations or governments need to act now. We need to collection and they need to act fast because it's five spreads very quickly. Time is a luxury we just didn't have by now. Okay so I need to ask you. Because you mentioned China and South Korea and Taiwan all those countries that actually did get a grip on them yes. China's Communist authoritarian regime but South Korea is not. Taiwan is not as you mentioned they both. Also you know instituted aggressive. The word is aggressive as the. Who says it has to be aggressive? Acted quickly exactly acted quick but they also apparently have this APP. Let me just read a little bit about China's come up with this APP assigns a Color Code Green yellow red indicating people's health status and it's the system that's already used in about two hundred Chinese cities and being rolled out nationwide is that's something that would help. Health professionals know quickly WHO's infected. Who's not to be able to isolate the worst off and the rest of it. Is that a useful tool. Do you think you wish you had it so so. The APP is given at the moment. We are not quite sure. What the appears the moment? We're only testing people in England or testing people now who get admitted to hospital so we're not doing community testing. And which is is the advice of our chief scientific officer medical officer so we're not doing testing in the community. But I I think we do need to learn from other countries here and I also WanNa poke them that. The global leaders got together and had a meeting today to discuss the global response to this which is good but I guess. I'm astounded that that is happening now. It should have happened three months ago. We've known about this. Since December it does seem a lot of countries are not prepared as they should be. We've known about this virus from December we've seen have been spreading across the world. Doesn't we need to feel that? We are as prepared as we should be. I think all of our government's nine hundred eighty get a grip also learned from countries that have this crisis and learn. Quick Dr Sarah. I can hear the urgency in your words and what you're telling us. Thank you very much indeed for joining us. It's really important. Thank you so much now. The financial fallout is dramatic as well with grim headlines predicting a deep global recession ahead markets. Keep tumbling no matter. How much the? Us Federal Reserve and other central banks try to intervene. This means businesses and workers are also in freefall wondering whether or where they will find a safety net joining me. Now is Harvard Kennedy School Professor. Jason Furman he was a top economic advisor to President Barack Obama during the last meltdown the financial crisis of two thousand eight Jason. Welcome to the program. Thanks for having me. First and foremost you see an end in sight to this meltdown of global markets on the macro level. And why hasn't any of these macro-economic sort of interventions help to toll? Yeah I'm Christiane. You know we've never seen anything like this economically. Certainly not in the United States. I'm not aware of anything. Where THE ENTIRE COUNTRY? Basically shut down simultaneously for a period No one knows how long it will last. I think the Fed has done exactly the right things. It's used a lot of its tools but I think they know and I think the market knows that those tools are of limited use in a circumstance like this. The most important thing is containing the spread of the virus starting to figure out a way to cure people anti-virals or a vaccine. That's a long way off and flattening the curve until then on the economic side the biggest tools we have aren't the ones At the Fed. They're the ones that the president and the Congress have with fiscal policy. I think a very large fiscal stimulus is going to be needed. And I think the markets would be happy when they see it more importantly I think a lot of American workers Would be happy when they can you. Can you explain what that means? Beyond the you know the title of fiscal stimulus for those who are steeped in your business Explain what that looks like. Sure it generally means you either. Raise government spending or cut government taxes often. You do A combination of both of those in part it's motivated directly by circumstances so now is the time for the government to pay for free testing which was in the bill that the House passed to pay for what it can for to expand hospital capacity as you've been talking with your previous guests on on the show to pay for people who are unemployed people going without food and the like if you add up the cost of all of that though it's still not enough for the sake of the economy and it's still not enough for the tens of millions of families that are gonNA see their incomes and lively heard hurt by this situation and you need some help so personally. I've advocated giving a check thousand dollars per person five hundred dollars per child if you wanted to make that larger. I wouldn't argue with that For some people that would help them stay home for other people would help them pay the rent and you know when we contain the virus that money would be there to help them start to spend more money and get us into a recovery more quickly so so let me just You know this but just for a view isn't talk about this now. The US basically Frances pledging tens of billions of euros to cushion the shock for their workers financial aid for instance for businesses. Cutting back hours without layoffs also. We've got the German Finance Minister saying that they want to provide the big bazooka in other words guaranteed liquidity to German businesses. And obviously other others are talking about trying to help individual people who are going to need the helping hand of the state in order to survive and to be able to eat and to remain in their homes. Is that the kind of thing that also needs to happen. Yeah absolutely the last part of the response. You want to improve. You WanNA deal with the Health. You want to improve the safety net for anyone affected and the biggest thing you. WanNa do is try to prevent people from losing their jobs In the first place. And that's going to take something like massive loans to businesses a massive new You know workout procedure for businesses. That can't pay the loans that they already have some talked about making grants to businesses bailouts. And the like I try to avoid that but if it needs to happen you know with some mutual sacrifice of all parties including shareholders. That's worth thinking about. Two and the goal of all of that would not be to help businesses. It would be to help the millions of people throughout the world that are employed by these businesses. And Right now. These businesses aren't going to be able to afford to pay those people keep them on payroll and making sure that we minimize this disruption to the economy. Because if something goes down you can't just flip a switch six months later and rev the economy back up you need to be building that bridge To whenever that that REV back up is going to happen okay. So that's that's really interesting because some have said that well look you know would just got to ride this out. It's a health crisis. You do have demanded society at large. You do have money in society at large. You do have supply all this can get back again and the economy will bounce back you saying. No not if it's less to tank now. I'm saying I wouldn't count on that happening. Christiane there's a lingo and economics called a V. shape recovery the economy goes straight down the economy. Come straight back up. We haven't seen one of those in the United States since the early nineteen eighty. S If you look at the United States Europe Japan and the like historically unemployment rates can go up much faster than they go down they can go up. Four percentage points in a year usually take something like six years for them then to work off that gain a business whose balance sheet is damaged has a hard time getting back into business hiring workers for all of these reasons. I would not count on an immediate rebound as soon as this virus passes and by the way who knows how long it'll take to pass. I think you need to be acting now to make sure that you're not just protecting people today. But you're putting the economy and a place where it can rebound in the future. Well you've been there before because you right at the heart of it during the two thousand eighteen meltdown. The great recession and there was a lot of stimulus. I heard you very clearly say we're not. I'm not suggesting what needs to be done now. Just to help business but to help people obviously people were had questions about whether the bank bailout back then was was right or not etc. Do you see the political will from the administration from the Secretary of the Treasury whose Deco sheeting with the speaker of the House to actually do this in the way they came together both sides. Last time I am I am a little bit. Cautiously hopeful. The House and Senate passed a bill and the president signed the first one related to the health emergency. The House has now passed a second bill and I think the Senate will pass it relatively soon really importantly secretary Mnuchin and Speaker Pelosi negotiated that bill together speaker. Pelosi did this before in two thousand eight. I think she was great. Negotiating partner in the crisis with then Secretary Paulson and the Bush administration as long as president trump delegates. Choose Speaker to Secretary Mnuchin and lets him conduct this type of negotiation that I think the two of them Pelosi Mnuchin are perfectly capable at getting to yes for important things for our country you know whether president trump let's them or not I can't predict that any better than anyone else. But you're saying so far. He has right. He did with this bill. At first he said he was going to oppose it and then a couple hours later. He tweeted his support for it. And you know. He wants to stock market to go up not down. If you do the right thing on fiscal stimulus you know the stock. Market's more likely to go up than down. So I'm all alone hopeful that there is an infrastructure to work together on this. Everyone understands that we need a third piece of legislation. We're probably GONNA need a fourth and a fifth on the people who are ready talking about. What's in that third piece of legislation? People know it needs to be big And you know I think we may stumble our way. They're not as quickly as I'd like But but you know very quickly by normal standards I just want to play a an observation is a little worrying. Because you'll successor. The current head of the Council of Economic Advisers to this administration to the president has said that the US could see a million jobs shed in April. Let's just play what he said? The issue is just that we think the next week the survey week. They'RE GOING TO BE BASICALLY NO HIRES. But they'll probably the enormous amount of fires and if that happens you're looking at one of the biggest negative jobs numbers that we've ever seen now. Of course that would hopefully reversed itself quickly if we get ahead of the curve on this but there's a whole bunch of really bad numbers coming in. I think that's why the market is responding the way it is right now to the Federal Reserve's action do. What's your reaction to that? Yeah I think we could see enormous job losses out of this upfront. It's not just the companies aren't hiring you're you're starting to see some layoffs already. There's anecdotal evidence of it. I think we'll see more in the days to come and the problem is as you know as I was saying before and this is true across the global economy. It is just much easier to fire people than it is to hire them. It takes time to post a job opening feel confident enough to hire someone. Pay Them a salary so I don't think these things are symmetric. It's easier to lose a lot of jobs Than it is to gain a lot of jobs you talked about the people who are going to be well the people who are most risk with their jobs right now and it's all sort of the consumer economy right. It's all the service economy really on the bars. The restaurants theaters movies sports and entertainment. Even Airlines and airlines are really hurting and they some are asking for Betas and some say they may go under. I mean major airlines. Say that they're going to have. They all currently grounding or thinking of grounding seventy five to eighty percent of their flights and they may not make it up the out the other end should they be bailed out I would much rather try structure something involving loans. The loans could be on favourable terms. Maybe we wouldn't get all the money back from the loans. But I would rather make that our first line of approach before we talk about actually making explicit transparent grants to businesses but But I I am open to to doing whatever it takes to keep the economy going. Finally I want to ask you about messaging is weird. Is that sounds about leadership about presenting a united competent and Coherent Front. For the first time we understand the United States and the other members of the g seven major economies. Got On the phone so to speak today to try to figure out a joint response. What is your assessment about the kind of leadership that's needed and do you think well it's obviously been slow to try to get a a messaging. But what can we expect going forward? What would be the most useful going forward now? There was a joint statement from the G. Seven finance ministers. I think about two weeks ago. There was coordination the actions by global central banks. Yesterday there's more conversations today You know it's it's hard to coordinate in these situations because it's not like the finance ministers have the authority to spend money they need their parliaments their congresses to go along with it but I think the the more coordination in a situation like this the better And the good news is the country's interests are aligned. It's hard to coordinate. If one country is being affected by something another country isn't it's incredibly incredibly unfortunate from a health perspective that this is affecting all of us in a terrible way But that means that the answer for all of us. is quite similar so at least we don't need to to argue over that. I think it was you another expert. Who said this is unprecedented? Because it's a massive hurricane all over the world all at the same time with no real idea when it's going to stop so I just want to ask you whether you take any comfort or sort of interest from what China's gone through. Yes they were slow at the beginning. Yes they kept it secret for a while. Then they went into major aggressive action and now they have less cases there than the people you know the countries on the out and this GonNa try to open up businesses again. What do you expect China's actions to deliver and could it have a calming effect? Yeah I think it. Might you know the fact that you've apple stores open in China and basically nowhere else in the world But China is still doing very aggressive set of social distancing of monitoring and contact tracing of type that. I'm not sure That we could pull off so if we were doing something. Relatively heavy handed completely appropriate one hundred percent support it all across the country. I don't know if we have the medium setting on what we're doing to be able to let people back out while the virus is still out. I think that's an open question for me But I should say I actually feel in some ways more optimistic than I did a week ago because I think you know Western Society United States Europe Have reacted much more than I expected they would. They've done much more to close. Universities close schools close restaurants. That's terrifying in the short run but that's incredibly encouraging about where we might be to limit the damage over the medium and long run. Well I'm very happy to hear you say you're at least a little bit encouraged. Jason Furman. Thank you very much indeed for joining us from Harvard tonight. Now Corona virus was of course the main item on the agenda during last night's democratic debate. It was an eerily quiet. One on one between Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden. It took place without an audience. The two started with an elbow bump and covert nine thousand. Nine has truly reshaped the political race the landscape of twenty twenty and on that topic. I'm joined by David Axelrod. He's the former senior adviser to president. Obama David axelrod. Welcome to the program. Good to be with you. Christiane so just to follow on from your former colleague Jason Furman and others who you've been listening to. I mean you went through it as well. You were there when the last great big well. It wasn't a crash but a big recession happened. I mean what do you just you all your reaction to leadership and how you think this is going well. I mean there's good news and bad news what What I've seen you know is the innate sense of Spirit of the American people are rallying to do things to help others to. You know I I heard today about someone who's organizing a group to go and deliver meals to seniors in the community so they don't have to go to buy groceries for them and bring them back And you know you hear stories like this. I've seen governors rally across the country we've had elements of the federal government Dr Pfau chief. Who I worked with when I was in the government Who is a superb and who has been giving people straight unvarnished truths and and counseling them on what to do. We've had a problem with the president because his instinct is to spin and sell and this is an pandemics can't be spun and the best thing that a president can do is give people The best information he has to be truthful and candid about the challenge And to give people confidence that the government is doing everything that the government can And to enlist them to do what they must To deal with a crisis like this We got we. Were slow out of the gate as you may know. The president disbanded the pandemic unit that was built into his National Security Council. Left by the Obama Administration. He disbanded that in two thousand and eighteen so he lost his early warning system and his ability to really organize the government quickly. that time can't be reclaimed. In that time we'll make a difference in terms of how pervasive This virus can be so you know. I hope that we can rally here and that the government will And the President Himself. will take guidance from the health professionals public health professionals and give people the information that they need. Well certainly in New York City. The mayor has talked about a war footing in terms of massive all purpose response. So let me then ask you because obviously you you. You brought up the politics as well and we're talking about the first debate. Between the two men left Standing Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden off sort of behind closed doors so to speak no audience. Nobody there to react to just themselves so. Tell me how you thought it went. I'm not sure who won. Who Lost but what was the conversation? What was the focus? And and how is this whole thing to reshape this race? Yeah you know I. It was so interesting. I was sitting in the studio Joining there's at CNN and it did feel like a wartime and it does feel that way In many ways as you walk the streets of Washington and you see these empty Restaurants and bars and Fewer people on the streets but here You know they came. We're accustomed to debates in front of large crowds. They came into to a skeletal Crew of people You know podium. Six feet apart and the sobriety of the situation was Was apparent from the start They both spoke In wartime language About what we were up against with this virus And it's very clear at took up the first forty minutes. I think the debate this is. What's on the minds of the American? People is Jason Furman Discussed there are profound economic concerns for everyday people. Many of whom can't work You know have or have to worry about their children at home and don't know how to balance that You know gig. Workers who are losing their source of income. There's a lot of anxiety on top of the public health anxiety about the virus itself and that was reflected in the discussion last night. And I think it has a number of facts on the campaign one is I think that You Know Joe Biden has experienced in These kinds of situations he was in the White House For not just the financial crisis which had some of the economic features of this but also the h one n one epidemic in two thousand nine the Ebola outbreak in two thousand and fourteen He understands the levers of power and how they can be used in situations like this and that was very apparent In his answers to these questions he seemed very comfortable in command Very presidential Bernie Sanders largely stuck to his fundamental points about the need for universal health. Care Medicare for all He he had a few unkind words for the pharmaceutical companies and warned that they're gonNa try and profiteer of this. I thought that didn't ring very well. given the given the environment we have out there but he used the time to basically burnish his basic message. Biden was sending a signal. I'm ready to. I'm ready to roll here. I know what needs to be done and I can handle a situation like this. So that's one effect. The the the the terrain has shifted. Biden's favor the election had already shifted in pines favor. It's very possible that he can wrap up effectively. Wrap up the nomination tomorrow night. He already has an almost impossible Lead to surmount and and Bernie Sanders will have to make a decision but this freezes the race because you can't campaign you can't hold rallies it's not the top of the news. It's not even the third fourth or fifth story on the new. So if you're an insurgent trying to catch up this is an impossible situation for you. I'm going to get to that in two sets the actual inability anymore to go to rallies to go door to door to shake hands to you know to me what I I just want to pick up on something. You said They'll be another debate. You think that Biden could wrap it up tomorrow night but the bottom line is that this universal healthcare or the idea that there needs to be a proper healthcare system for all Americans is surely going to get huge amount of traction. Because of this because of this catastrophe right now I mean you know. Andrew Cuomo is called for a federal response to all of this even call out the army okay. That's to build beds and hospital space and all the rest of it but I mean it's impossible to imagine that because of this disparate coverage and all the rest is some Americans just not even covered. Yes well look I. I think that there are two issues here and bind did a good job of separating them out last night there is the the crying need to have some sort of universal system here whether you get at it by Dente building on the obamacare program or whether you get at it as more of a single payer program which is what Senator Sanders is. is proposing an ally without private insurance That's one debate. What you have here now is a public health emergency and even regardless of how you had How Your Insurance System were There's just a capacity issue here what Andrew Cuomo is calling from. What Biden did again last night was to mobilize The Army Corps of Engineers for example to build temporary hospital units so that you can handle what may be. A An overflow would probably will be overflow of patients when this thing crests and. That's the big concern right now. Do we have the facilities and the equipment To deal with the patients that are going to have to be treated for this. That is a separate issue and by point out less than at a national emergency. That treatment has to be Available to everyone. It has to be free but it has to also be available because we have the facilities to do so. There are two separate problems. There is a very important debate to be had about how our healthcare system should work moving forward. But this is a separate issue about the capacity of our health system to deal with a crisis like this Indeed and what about messaging? Obviously you know you were the campaign manager you you know all about this. There's a lot of different kind of messaging. You know we've just said you know Andrew Cuomo. The governor called for the Fed is for the army to come out just yesterday. President Trump said quote. We have tremendous control of the virus. You've got Republican Congress. People telling people to go out with their family and eat in restaurants. The governor of Oklahoma did that sitting with his family in a crowded restaurant and then he declared a state of emergency in the state. How how dangerous is it to have this kind of mixed messaging and you think have you have you have you sort of note? Is maybe a change in gravitas. Gravity over the last twenty four hours. Yeah I mean. I think it's changing by the hour. As as as more information comes in you know this is underscored. One of the great challenges we have in our democracy And I suspect you're facing it In Britain and elsewhere Because of the way modern media works you can choose your sources of information and you can easily silo yourself into a world where you get only those things that affirm your point of view president's been very successful with Fox News here and some of the social media outlets that support him in really shaping the thinking of his of his base And you see it in polling where. Republicans are far less Stressed about This virus and far less willing to accept the advice of public health experts that they should Socially distance themselves from others and take these precautions. It is dangerous now. The president's impulse is to spin spin things in a positive way As I said to spin into cell and when he stood up yesterday it was almost surreal to hear him say This we have a good control of this and then he laughed and he left the room and then his public health experts gave a completely different message And it is very very dangerous. The one thing we know is that if people disregard The warnings that they're getting from public health. If they don't do their part this thing can be infinitely worse. And then that that situation that I mentioned before where the health system kind of crashes because we don't have enough facilities to deal with everyone being treated at once comes into play so we have these people professional people and people in the government Here who are working hard to avoid that situation. It's very damaging when the president of the United States and his Amen Corner in the right wing media are telling people something completely different. Okay we got one minute left. I'll just say that his own people say he's trying to be the comma in chief but that's for another day in another discussion. I wanted to ask you what you make of Vice President Biden fully committing to a woman to appointing a woman as his vice president and running mate if he does become the nominee. What was smart last night at it commanded a lot of attention From that debate I think it is probably where he was going to be headed. All along women are such an important constituency in American politics in democratic politics in particular they drove the democratic takeover of the House In two thousand eighteen and it's time so I thought it was a smart move and not unexpected one time indeed. David thank you so much for joining us. Good to be with you and finally in these anxious and uncertain times director of the W. H. O. Said today the name of the game must be togetherness to that end. We want to remind you and ourselves of how many moments of solidarity are also going viral in Madrid under lockdown now residents took to their balconies to cheer their overwhelming healthcare workers. Take a look it is a beautiful sound and it was arranged through social media. Of course we've seen this happen in Italy and in the United States this bomb the metropolitan is streaming performances for free online and as the. Who chief says this amazing infection of human solidarity must be greater than the infection of the virus. And that is it for now you can always catch us online on our podcast and across social media. Thank you for what Ching Goodbye from London.

United States president New York City China Jason Furman US Army Corps of Engineers Joe Biden UK London World Health Organization Federal Reserve David axelrod Bernie Sanders Christiane Amanpour Britain South Korea commissioner
We might see new coronavirus aid, but after Labor Day

Marketplace Morning Report with David Brancaccio

08:19 min | 8 months ago

We might see new coronavirus aid, but after Labor Day

"This marketplace podcast is supported by MD Anderson Cancer Center offering lymphoma patients, groundbreaking clinical trials like car. K. Therapy in pursuit of making cancer history MD, Anderson will do whatever it takes more at MD ANDERSON LYMPHOMA DOT com. I'm just in Ho with marketplace the economy is changing so fast it's hard to keep up. So our latest podcast is here to help it's called. The marketplace minute gives just sixty seconds and we'll bring you the latest on what's happening in the economy three times a day market updates business news in hell the numbers affect your personal economy. We'll tell you what you need to know why it matters. Just ask your smart speaker, play the marketplace minute or find it wherever you get your podcasts. When time is money when it comes to emergency corona virus relief. I'm David Brancaccio the Senate has left Washington until September after talks between Republicans and Democrats about another corona virus relief package stalled. If there is big new aid people are thinking maybe after Labor Day late last month Jason Furman was part of a bipartisan group that proposed targeting extra federal unemployment money to hardest regions and to phase it out not at a date certain but according to benchmarks when the economy improves firmness the former chair of President Obama's Council of Economic Advisers and is now a professor at Harvard. Welcome. Thanks for having me. So. Probably, no new package of aid to people during this pandemic. Until next month, you know professors students are taking an extension on this project. To what extent do you think the lost weeks will matter? I think David that they'll really matter one of the remarkable things about what happened in the economy is despite a huge amount of unemployment consumption pretty much returned to where it was prior to the crisis that happened because of the large infusion of cash and we're going from a large infusion of cash to absolutely nothing. Right. So the consumer spending part of all this you know starts to dry up just in the coming weeks a couple of weeks you say does matter I mean it won't. We won't just catch up after Labor Day if some money comes. People savings by and large, not everyone but by and large increased over the last couple months people didn't spend all of the money on they were getting. So there's a bit of a cushion, but that's a cushion you run through in a matter of weeks not months, and then you get to the point of fictions financial distress concern about the future, all of which will lead to pulling back. So you're sounding calm in this discussion but inside, you're not calm about this. I'm frankly shocked that we're now two weeks past the deadline. There's no deal the White House chief of staff is on vacation the Senate is about to leave and we're in the worst economic place that our country has been since the Great Depression and people aren't you know staying they're working on it. So you know I, view that as distressing. Jason Furman former head of the council of Economic Advisers, under President Obama is an ECON professor at Harvard now. So. Much. Thanks for having me. That's been more than half a year since the US and China, signed the first phase of a trade deal but China is far behind on making good on its promise to buy seventy seven billion dollars worth of US exports. Now, despite the current Washington Beijing rancor top officials on both sides are expected to renew their vows on this. Here's marketplace's Kristen. Schwab China's blaming the delay on the effect corona virus lockdowns have had on both economies. Meanwhile, the relationship between the two countries hasn't exactly been peachy. The US has sanctioned Chinese companies band Tiktok and closed Beijing's consulate in Houston China bit back by closing a US consulate and sanctioning some members of Congress. But both sides planned to repair the phase one deal because neither country would benefit from the political fallout of a destroyed relationship. The meeting tomorrow will center on how to close the Trade Gap China has only purchased five percent of the energy products at agreed to and imports of farm goods are lower than they were years ago before the trade war started, I'm Kristen Schwab for marketplace. Interesting, the new numbers this morning show retail sales in July got back to pre pandemic levels. If you can believe it up one point, two percent in July in lieu of big new stimulus, some experts are worried sales could drop again markets. The Dow is down one hundred, fourteen points, four tenths percent. The S&P is down a half a percent. The Nasdaq is down three tenths of a percent. Hey. It's Kim host of million zillion a new podcast for kids from marketplace and brains on. We know talking about money can be tough, which is why we're here to answer all the weird and awkward questions that you and your kids have about money and then worry we keep it fun. Listen to million zillion a show that helps dollars make more sense subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. In our ongoing project think about ways to get the economy we want not the economy we had. Let's turn to Patrice Coup Nash the former Director of the center for Indian Country Development at the Federal Reserve of Minneapolis She's now development officer at the native American Rights Fund and has been thinking a lot about the idea of what some call inclusive prosperity. Indian country is sixty million acres pretty much locked up. All right we want to explore opportunities for bigger better projects. That are under the control and direction and management of the tried. I mean, we have to be careful about saying what we're going through now is somehow an opportunity with the pandemic, but you see it as at some level as an opportunity to. Push, for policies that might not have been on the table a few months ago. Yeah I do. I. Do see this crisis is an opportunity for innovative thinking. So for example, the opportunity to use social impact bonds, the investors are willing to to raise funds put money on the table for projects with a positive social outcome and the real opportunity to provide an investment return to the investor as well. Would tribes themselves issue perhaps these social bonds or is the idea that third parties for instance philanthropies do it? I think both tribes have the capacity issue bonds but I'd love to see a private public partnerships where we could combine purpose with profit. To be you float some bonds and you could build some schools, you could build some wastewater reclamation projects. You could fix some roads absolutely think about managing food insecurity, and as you said, access to education, and if we can think bigger and better, we can take on health care build up not just the access to services but employment opportunities really skilled employment opportunities. Thank you very much Patrice Kuna formerly at the Minneapolis. Fed, and now at the Center for Indian Country Development, she also appears in our economy reimagined one hour special listen out for it on many public radio stations nationwide in the coming days weeks. I'm David Brancaccio this is marketplace morning report. From APM American public media.

David Brancaccio professor US Council of Economic Advisers Jason Furman Senate Harvard President Obama China Washington Anderson Cancer Center Minneapolis Anderson Schwab China Beijing Center for Indian Country Deve Trade Gap China Patrice Kuna Kristen Schwab
#983: You Asked About The Virus Economy

Planet Money

28:40 min | 1 year ago

#983: You Asked About The Virus Economy

"This is planet money from NPR. Last week I caught up a listener named Ian Lindor Shelton and when I got him on the phone he was socially distanced. Yeah actually at a public park my online college classes so my parents are at risk so I got to make sure everyone's look this is what's become of US freshman year at Florida International University. And he's got a lot of time now to think about meaningful places. He can no longer go physically. So the the pizza spot. He hung out at in highschool the the Burger joint. He walks to from his house called. Burger Bob's not. To be confused. He says with the popular cartoon it not Bob's Burgers Burbach CAPER BOB since So old my grandfather used to go there. I thought if I place this appears smile childhood. Where are you on their website now? Yeah I am sitting in my billing address. Ian Has set aside about one hundred dollars to try and help these restaurants survive and while we talked he. He bought a twenty five dollar. Gift Card to that High School Pizza Place. It's kind of. It's kind of sad up sending it to myself so to Ian from Ian. There's something like that really encapsulates the moment there the isolation of sending yourself a gift card. Yeah here's a question and this question was submitted by you. The listeners is doing this gift card. Buying thing even really going to make a dent in the problem. Hello and welcome to planet money. I'm Kenny Malone and today on the show your questions on everything from stock market shutdown to toilet paper shortages. How would the government actually send us all money? Why don't businesses gets scolded like we do when it comes to emergency savings and of course gift cards planet money has a newsletter straight to your inbox? It's just the right amount of economics. Weekly go to NPR DOT org slash planet money newsletter. All right. Our first question today comes from a listener named Lauren. Shindo how can I help the local businesses that I would normally be going to? If I didn't have to stay at home I can. I Buy Gift Cards. Are there any other ideas or things that I can do to help out those people who are not going to be making the same income? Yeah this is a big one and and there's sort of two approaches here. There's the donation approach You can find a reputable charity doing good work right now. There are also emergency funds being set up for laid off workers and then there's the consumer approach you can still get takeout or delivery or place an online order from your favorite shop or restaurant to show support but Lauren mentions this gift card idea in specific and in normal times gift. Cards are a huge pet peeve of economists and financial types shirt my name is John Paul Coenen and I write about finance and money and gift cards John. Paul writes the blog and back in August. He was looking through the financial filings of starbucks and mixed in with the traditional kinds of loans that starbucks had taken out. Was this huge number. One point six billion dollars of this jargon e sounding kind of debt they're stored value card liability. And you're like what is that. Yeah I was quite curious. Stored Value Card liability is gift cards. Technically every gift card is like a teeny loan and we are giving starbucks one point six billion dollars. Intini LOANS. And how good are the terms on those loans? Well first of all it says zero percent loan from your customer and secondly a lot these loans never actually get paid off so like I lend starbucks money and then never actually sort of call that entire loan or your friend didn't because you might have given it to the friend and there's a good chance a friend would have lost or your mother. Whoever you gave it to when you start to think about a gift card as a mini loan from you to accompany they are a terrible deal for you and an amazing deal for the company in Normal Times. Yes earth boxes and some products going on here. Sophie Madison is in Boston. Frantically packing up some online orders at her shop all lives and grace where she sells. Everything from Boston made candy to Tom. Brady football candles and before she shut her physical store down. One customer came in looking worried and said to her. I want to buy a gift card and then I said okay. How much would you like that foreign? She just paused for a minute. And she said a thousand dollars a thousand dollars thousand dollars like she is very worried about you right. You know. It didn't feel like the warm fuzzy thousand dollar in store purchase. It felt like you know. Here's a hug. Let's hunker down. Here's some seed money. It was a real love and support gesture. Small businesses are are waiting for emergency loans from the state and federal government. But in the meantime customers have realized that there is already a way to hand out alone buying a gift card. Those gift cards are very generous. Zero percent loan and in normal times. That is the worst thing about gift cards. But right now that is what makes them particularly useful until much much. Bigger help can arrive. Which brings us to our next question about one of the biggest most expensive ideas being debated by our lawmakers right now literally cutting checks to Americans to help them through. This people have got a lot of questions about this. And so we've brought in Greg result ski. He writes planet money's newsletter. Hello Greg so greg we know that. The details of direct payments are getting hammered. Out will money go to everybody. What will the exact amount be? We don't we don't know those details yet but you were able to track down the economist who is generally credited for getting this idea moving in the first place. Yeah so his name is Jason Furman. He's an economist at Harvard. He's also the former head of the council of Economic Advisers under president. Obama and his story is really the story of how dramatically everything has changed in Washington. The last few weeks I was sitting at home one morning my two older children had gone off to school with my wife and I was sitting with my four year. Old Kids like running off to school. Feels like like a different universe ago? This is unbelievable. It's unbelievable yeah. This was only a few weeks ago. This was early March at the time. Jason was foreseen krona virus cases popping up in the United States. He's seeing what's happening in Italy and he's not just about the public health crisis but what all due to the economy. I sat down in about one hour I wrote the OP Ed for the Wall Street Journal and then got my four year old to school about half an hour late. You know I I read this op. Ed and I feel like this was the moment that I realized like. Oh Oh maybe this is going to be bigger than I thought he proposed. What like Like some three hundred fifty billion dollar stimulus package or something like that. Yeah there were. There were a lot of ideas in his plan. But but the part of the op-ed that really caught everybody's attention. Was this one thing. Jason called for a one time payment to basically every American and their kids. Yeah I propose a thousand dollars for five hundred dollars for child. I thought Something around a percent and a half of GDP made the most sense and those were round numbers and the happened to get you to about the total that I wanted to get to. Jason admits. This wasn't an exact science. Also that he didn't invent the idea of the government sending people stimulus checks but it is opposed. See the pretty rare for the government to do. This is part of the reason why he suggested it was to open people's eyes to the fact that we were about to get into a serious economic crisis but it didn't seem like a lot of people in government. Were taking his idea seriously. The president's economic adviser Larry Cudlow got asked on television what he thought of my idea. He said something. To the effect of Jason Furman is my friend and followed it with You know the the idea that something much more limited Needed to happen but then public events started to cancel. Schools closed restaurants and bars shut down. It became clear that something big needed to get done and sort of surprisingly Senator Mitt. Romney Kinda comes out. Basically endorsing firmin's idea that we need to send checks to everyone even used Jason's amount of thousanddollars within days president. Donald Trump himself says yup. We're going to need to send people checks. I was at in Cambridge This time all three of my children were there. None of them. Were going to school and I think I saw it come in over over twitter. And how did that you know? I was excited that he was embracing it so great. We know at this point that that lawmakers are talking about a potentially two trillion dollar federal aid and stimulus package including some version of Jason's idea of direct payments to Americans. And one of the questions we've gotten is. How would this work logistically like? How does the government get you that money? How do they even find you? Yeah so we can look at the last time. We did a version of this which was back in two thousand eight. The IRS HAS PEOPLE'S INFORMATION FROM INCOME TAXES. Right so they could cut you a check or put money in your bank account for those who haven't paid federal income taxes. They'll probably have to fill the form to get a check in two thousand eight. It took three months for the first round to go out. I've been speaking to a lot of people. I'm confident. We can do it a lot more quickly this time. It's very hard but it's probably administratively easier than just about anything else that we're going to do. In the economic response to Corona virus on Friday president trump said at a press conference said he supports sending Americans much more than a thousand dollars and that we might need to send checks multiple times. Jason's on board with this to the most important thing we can do is to do a lot and to do it fast. Cash to people help to state governments and whatever we need to do to cushion the blow for businesses and most importantly their employees second. This shouldn't be all that we do. We should expand unemployment insurance. We should expand nutritional assistance. We should increase Aid to states. That are bearing the brunt of this does a lot of different facets of the response all right so that is now where Jason Furman stands the the guy arguably behind sending everybody checks for this particular crisis Greg. Thank you for tracking down. Thanks for having me Kenny. All right next up. We've got planet money's Robert Smith. Hello Robert Get him alone Robert. We brought you in to answer a question from Listener Andrew. Fujiyoshi I was wondering why the markets can't halt trading for longer periods of time during the cove nineteen pandemic. What would the consequences be listen? I'm with this person emotionally. I watched stock market all day. Long stock is plunging It's creating all the things I d. Why don't we just shut them down? And that is what I yell back at my screen all day long. Just close it down to stop it. Make It stop. And it's it's clear that there are some kinds of circuit breakers for it to temporarily stop so it. It does seem reasonable that there could be something in place to make. It stopped for longer periods of time. They developed the circuit breakers after black. Monday in Nineteen eighty-seven they're like. Oh like once the market really starts to sell off. There's all these psychological factors and people are selling first and thinking later right. So they developed this system whereby if the market goes down a certain percentage that give everybody a timeout. Just like take a breather. Want you stop meditate. Think stop at the itchy trigger finger. This is the idea and the first use this nine hundred. Ninety seven was the Asian financial crisis and they tried it the first time and the traders spent the fifteen minutes filling out sell orders. They're like oh good. I can sell even more trading starting it plunged even more and they and they stopped it for the day and so it had sort of mixed effect. I I will say there. There was a time where stopping the stock market made absolute sense and this was after nine eleven in two thousand one sir The stock market people couldn't go to because it was in lower Manhattan and frankly a lot of the trading firms had people who had died in that terrorist attack and it was such a horrible situation. They closed it for a week but there was a real question at the time. I remember this like what's going to happen when they opened. Are they going to open it? And all this pent-up fear and anger and dread is this is going to flood the market. Well there was a large sell off but you know what they had a fairly normal day and everyone said like Oh thank goodness and from then on they kept the Stock Market Open. So let me ask you point blank. Then why would we not shut the market down now? Is it something anyone's thinking about? Yeah I mean it's certainly been brought up and people have asked the president and the Treasury Secretary Mnuchin about this but there's there's a couple different reasons I mean one of them is is sort of technical. Which is you know. It's not just stocks trading in the United States of America stocks trade all around the world in London in Europe in Australia and Japan and China and Hong Kong and so they're trading twenty four hours a day so if you could close the market here but if you really want to sell things you can sell things all night long. You know you can. You can take out your fear anxiety around the world. So that's the technical reason why we probably should not shut on the markets. But there's this other bigger idea which is think for a moment like what a stock transaction is when we talk about the stock market's what talking about are hundreds of thousands. Maybe millions of individual deals. There's somebody who doesn't want a stock who is afraid of the risk of a company that they own a part of and they're selling it to someone who wants that risk. Who has an optimistic view of the future? Who thinks that? Oh I'll take that stock of Boeing. I will take stock of GE. Because I have a different point of view. I'm willing to take the risk and that's kind of like that's a good thing to happen even in times where people are afraid and I will. I will say one more thing which is weird a moment here where there is. I feel like there's not enough information about what's happening. In the world and the stock market. The price of a stock is pure information. That is the consensus number of hundreds of thousands of people on what a company is worth right now and these are people professionals very smart people who spend all day long thinking well. How crippled is Boeing during this time how strong is Amazon's GonNa come out of this and through consensus through the market? They come up with price now. I don't like the price because it's it's low and it causes me pain but that is information and I think more information is better. Okay Robert Smith not going to shut down stock market tomorrow with you had the magic the magic gavel. I would sleep better if they did but I. It's probably not the best thing all right. Thanks Robert you're welcome our after the break breakdowns in the markets for toilet paper and commercial paper. Are you sometimes confused by the economy befuddled by the financial system troubled by the trade war? We are here to help with daily ten minute briefing on economic news of the day. Npr's the indicator from planet money. Listen now all right for this. Next question we have brought in producer. Extraordinaire Alexi horwitz Ghazi. Hello Kenny Hello. Tell me what you've been looking into. This question comes from listener. Carol lucking she lives in the town of spearfish. South Dakota okay. I called up and she told me that you know out there. The current virus pandemic doesn't quite feel as present yet as it might for for those of us in more urban parts of the country. Eight feel like. We're a little bit insulated A lot of restaurants are doing. Mostly take out but things aren't shut down like I know the local Irish pub huge blowout on Saint Patrick's Day which was a little horrifying. So yeah I think some people are taking it seriously and other people aren't but there's no toilet paper for sure there's no toilet paper so so she's saying that even in not taking it seriously. Enough spearfish South Dakota. The run toilet. Paper has happened. It has reached even spearfish. My question was what is the deal with toilet paper. Who started this toilet paper hoarding? Or where did it start and then part two of Carroll's question? Is it possible that this whole national toilet paper run will actually affect our toilet paper supply? That's yet that is a big one. We've been getting a version of that from from lots and lots of people. So what have you? What have you found here okay? So the first part of this question. Where did this whole toilet paper hoarding things start yes? Some of the earliest reports of this kind of shopping behavior came from Hong Kong A little over a month ago and make sense. It's it's close to where the virus started. That's right and you know there are there are much headlines from there there is even one story about a a group of armed robbers who pulled off a toilet paper heist there in armed toilet paper heist. Yeah so there. Were all sorts of headlines on toilet paper hoarding there but then it just started to grow a bit. I see and so i. I'm guessing as the virus spreads to Japan and then Singapore and Australia and then eventually the US like all of these countries have seen headlines about corona virus and toilet paper shortages and so it is just now common prepping behavior to include toilet paper on your hoarding list. Yeah that that seems to be part of it and you know that kind of makes sense to some degree you know you want to minimize the number of times. You'RE GONNA have to leave your house and go be in a crowded grocery store. Yeah Yeah but the problem is people are buying like several years where the toilet paper way more than they need. Yes this brings us to part two of Carroll's question which is we'll all of this erotic behavior semiautomatic behavior effect the actual supply of toilet paper in the long run. Yes that's right and so to answer that question. You basically need to look at the normal toilet paper market. Sure I spoke to Willie she about this. E teaches supply chains and manufacturing at Harvard. Business School if you think about toilet paper. The demand is very stable. It's not like the holiday season us more toilet paper or for birthday celebrations us more toilet paper toilet. Paper demand is proportional to how many people are in the population. Willie says that the problem that we're seeing basically as that we are seeing people panic buying from supply chain. That's designed for just a really slow steady demand. Sure you can you know. Run your plants a little harder. Maybe run a little faster. But you have all these bottlenecks like I need. Trucking capacity to move it from my factories to the distribution centers and from distribution centers into stores and. This is why people are still finding empty shelves every once in a while at the grocery store. Okay that makes sense to me sure. That's the bad news. The good news is that toilet. Paper has a relatively short and localized supply chain. So that means it's made pretty close to where it's bought and consumed for instance. One economist told me that around ninety percent of toilet paper is made here in the United States which means that the supply chain may have hiccups here and there but all these worldwide border closings are not going to affect the toilet paper supply for most of us. Okay now one interesting thing. Willie she wanted to talk about. Was that all these people. Who ARE HOARDING TOILET PAPER? Right now or stockpiling. They're not actually going to be using anymore. Toilet paper going forward. There's GonNa come a time when this passes and if you bought a five-year supply you're not going to buy toilet paper for a long time. So inevitably this kind of hoarding and stockpiling will be followed by a period of lower demand. Really she says toilet. Paper manufacturers just need to keep in mind that if they ramp up production today. There's a lull coming tomorrow or whenever the pandemic is over Anyway Alexi horwitz Ghazi. Thank you very much any all right for final question. We have Mary childs. Hello Mary Hi. You're here to answer questions that I think this is the thing. I've been thinking about a lot in these last couple of weeks and it is that like we are told this advice from financial types that we as individuals need to be responsible. We need to have like three months worth of cash on hand to cover our expenses for three months but but businesses are not being told this they. They're not required to have three months of stuff on hand that that seems unfair and unsafe or something so we actually got a few questions like this and to be fair. Many companies do have a lot of cash sitting around kind of just for times like this but the short answer is companies basically always have access to vast amounts of money and we generally don't yes that must be nice and actually that access that whole system nearly broke down last week. It froze up. And it nearly imploded. Which would have taken down like entire corporations? Thousands of people would have gone without paychecks. It was a real near Miss. Yeah this was this near catastrophe that didn't make quite enough headlines totally. I think that's because it happened in this like one little corner of the Financial Market So to understand all of this. I'm going to introduce you to this guy. John mccully he works at this money. Manager called Columbia threadneedle and he works in that little corner in what's called the commercial paper market a phrase. You will understand very shortly. I've been doing this now for thirty five years. You know. I remember the stock market crash. Eighty seven I remember the nine eleven events and then obviously the two thousand eight financial prices so John's job. He gets into the office every morning and sit down at his desk with his million computer screens in front of him and he buys themselves little teeny weeny loans to companies three month loans. Maybe six months maybe nine months maybe usually not so like I run. Let's say Kenny Malone Mattress Inc and I don't have any cash on hand but that's that's fine. I'll pay my employees by going to these lenders and saying give me a thirty day. Tiny loan and then. I'll pay my employees exactly. You basically don't have to fret. John is always there for you. And they're actually thousands of people like John. Fighting each other to try to give Kenny Mattress company those loans because they want that interest payment and I know that you might be thinking like this sounds kind of scary. That sounds like a lot of lending money flying back and forth like people yelling on the phone. Yes but this is not that this is actually the most stable most boring part of financial markets. It moves by like Teeny weeny little fractions of a percentage point at a time like it is sleepy so much so that John says he gets made fun of for his job. They always tease me. That you know to use a football analogy that. I'm the long snapper of the Fixed Income Trading Desk. You know I have no idea what that means The long snappers the guy he he only comes in to snap the ball back to the punter so the punter can punt the ball down the field right so the guy comes in maybe six times a game you know yes okay so all very boring very stable. I guess what that means for like Kenny Malone mattresses incorporated is that why would I have a well of money when there is this boring stable reliable river of money that I can always dip into? That is the commercial paper market. Exactly so the whole premise of this market is that three months is not a very long time in the loan market. That is the blink of an eye so if you think that Kenny Malone Mattress Company is good company today in three months. It's probably going to be still a good company. But in the past few weeks the speed of the corona virus outbreak and the economic shutdown that followed all of that has been so fast and so drastic. The people like John. All of a sudden could not in good faith by these loans anymore. Kenny Mattress Company may be a great company. But we just don't know what's going to happen right. You don't know if I'm going to have to send everyone home tomorrow. Let alone where the company will be in three months. Exactly three months suddenly becomes a really long time so last Monday. John Walks into his basically empty office and he sat down at his desk with his million computer. Screens and the entire market was in total disarray. Prices were moving so fast that nobody could keep up there were email stacking up and there were all sorts to chat buzzing and phone calls. Everybody's kind of coming to that all my God moment at the same time. It's kind of an alone feeling to begin with and then when I was sitting in the office with with two or three other people it it it really kind of made made you feel like you were all. John looks at all this. And he's like no. I am not touching this. This is insane. I can't even be sure. These companies will be around in three months to pay back these loans but the day after John. Scary moment in the office. The Fed makes this big announcement. They are reopening this thing from the financial crisis called the commercial paper funding facility and basically just says John. Don't worry we are buying alongside you. We are right here. There's always going to be a buyer. You don't need to sweat. If Kenny Malone Mattress Company starts going South and you WANNA sell that paper. We're right here. We're going to buy up some of this paper just the same as you and suddenly that means. John doesn't need to be scared. He's not alone anymore. And in essence what. I guess that that river of of money starts flowing again. Businesses can start dipping into it again. Hopefully exactly this was a big sigh of relief. This was this big moment and the reason the Federal Reserve is getting involved. Here is will one. They planned to get their money back with interest. Once the market is stabilized. It should just go back to being. Pretty easy peasy stable money and the financial crisis when the. Fed did similar things. They made a ton of money. So that's all kinds of one reason. Why a corporate bailout is different from bailing out regular people. Which was the question we started with? It's true right like in the. Us corporations just have better protections than people do we make sure that companies can function and there is of course a rationale for that right like companies employed thousands of people and so if they suddenly run into trouble and can't pay those employees. That has huge ramifications. It still feels kind of unfair. But that's what we got so sorry. Mary childs. Thank you so much thank you. Listen things are happening so fast and it helps us tremendously to know what you want to know. What are you hearing that you need explained? Who is the person you want to hear from on our show? Please keep sending your questions to planet money at NPR dot org or you can find us on twitter and instagram and facebook. Generally at planet money. We got so many questions so many incredible stories. We read every single one of them. And we'll keep doing these segments. Today's show was produced. Alexi Horowitz Ghazi. Lies A yeager and Darren Woods with help from James sneed outs? Goldmark is our supervising producer. Bryant Erstad at it's the show. I'm Kenny Malone this is NPR. Thanks for listening.

United States Jason Furman John NPR Kenny Malone president Robert Smith starbucks Kenny Malone Mattress Company Ian Lindor Shelton Harvard Federal Reserve Alexi Horowitz Ghazi Burger Bob Willie twitter
Be it resolved: tariffs are terrific

The Munk Debates

38:46 min | 1 year ago

Be it resolved: tariffs are terrific

"I think it's time for this. Toxic Binary zero-sum stop for not an imperial power where revolutionary power. We are no longer in a world where you can. Plot out moves statesman to statesman like a chessboard. You don't know anything about my background to where it came from. It doesn't matter to because fundamentally fundamentally I'm a mean white man we can't do this to the next generation because it a miracle will cease to exist welcome to the monk debate podcast. I'm your moderator. RUDYARD griffiths our mission every episode is to provide you with civil and substantive debate on on the big issues of the day. Free of spin focused on facts in animated by smart conversation by the end of each debate. Our hope is that you'll be armed armed with enough information to make your own mind about any given issue upon this episode. We debate the motion. The it resolved tariffs are terrific. Rick the main question that arises is not should these trade policies. Be Fundamentally changed but why did they remain in place. So long to begin with tariffs are regressive tax they fall the highest on the families that have the hardest time paying them. They don't do anything positive. The United States has been taken advantage of by other countries both friendly and not not so friendly for many many decades and we have a trade deficit of eight hundred billion dollars a year. And that's not going to happen with me the. US White House believes that America has been the victim of unfair trading practices for far too long creating the global economy where foreign workers profit at the expense of American businesses. Donald Trump is now bent on using tariffs to rewrite trade agreements to benefit. NFL US workers and the American economy advocates of free trade and economic globalization are sounding the alarm. They believe that trump's tariff tantrums with Europe Mexico Canada and specifically China are pushing the US economy into recession and represent a fundamental misunderstanding standing of how the global economy works on this installment of the Munk debates. Podcast we challenge the essence of these arguments by debating. The motion tariffs are terrific. Horrific arguing for the resolution is Alan Tonelson. He's the founder of reality check which covers US economic technology and National Security Policy. Arguing against the motion. Is Jason Furman. Who served as chair of President Obama's Council of Economic Advisers? Alan Tonelson. Jason Furman. Welcome to the munk debates podcast. It's great to have you both here. For a spirited debates on trade globalization tariffs a whole set of issues that are swirling around our politics and swirling around our economies Alan as is convention the person arguing for the motion goes I. So we'RE GONNA put three minutes on the clock. Your time starts now. Thanks so much for having me on not to start out on picky note but although the trump administration in glosses over this distinction it's not simply foreign businesses and foreign governments that have profited at the expense of US industry and the US. This working class crucially it's also. US owned multinational companies that have adopted offshoring central business models and WHO's domination of trade policy policymaking throughout the immediate pre trump decades bears direct blame for the trade policy catastrophes we've experienced like liberalizing commerce indiscriminately with China that have not only weaken the American economy but help create a major threat to national security but recklessly enabling the rise of of an economic rogue and rapidly strengthening geopolitical rival. Light China is only been one reason for fundamentally changing the course of US trade and also industrial policies the latter included because manufacturing still dominates America's trade flows and remains the prime victim of trade policy mistakes among the other truly epic failures of the pre trump approach first by focusing so tightly on trade expansion and liberalisation with very low cost and low income countries. These policies inevitably fostered lopsided flows of goods and capital in particular the most important of these strap the United States states with immense deficits that can only be financed with unprecedented inflows of cheap foreign credit bloated and intertwined consumption housing bubbles nobles inevitably followed as their disastrous bursting in two thousand seven. Two Thousand Eight second big problem just as this credit flood and the Rube Rube Goldberg Finance. It fostered over financial is the American economy pre trump presidents indifference to predatory foreign trade practices. which often often benefited us? Multinationals that produced an exported from protectionist countries undercut the manufacturing sector. That's the economy's productive heart. It's it's stunt its growth and therefore employment creating and wage. Earning opportunities third big problem. The ballooning trade deficits viewed with such indifference by the pre trump presidents also slowed the entire economy's growth rate. Although worsening trade balances don't always subtract from growth. They do have this effect. If Alternative tournant growth-fostering tools like fiscal and monetary policy are actually or nearly tapped out and global growth is sluggish circumstances. This is which all hold today and the effects can be substantial. Finally the economic losses suffered by the white working class men in particular who have dominated the manufacturing hiring workforce their families and their communities have produced devastating social consequences when you add the national security dangerous fostered by the creation of China's China's central supply chains in high tech industries and the wholesale transfer of defence-related technologies to Chinese entities by US based multinationals. The main question that arises is not should these trade policies. Be Fundamentally changed but why did they remain in place so long to begin with Grace Allen. Thank you okay Jason. Furman women over to you to get your statement against the resolution. be resolved tariffs are terrific. The three hundred million American people the WHO pay tariffs may not realize they're paying tariffs but if they did those people would not find those tariffs to be terrific terrific. We have a lot of problems. In America wage growth is to slow inequality is too high. There's not enough opportunity opportunity. If you asked me to go out and solve those problems I never would have said the right way to solve them is to have a tariff on backpacks a- TERRIF- on sporting gloves a tariff on stainless steel spoons. And by the way no tariff on silver spoons a tariff on the clothing that people buy at a store like Walmart than the clothing that people buy at a high end end Boutique. In the upper east side of New York terracar regressive tax they fall the highest on the families that have the hardest artist time paying them. They don't do anything positive. Allen argued that tariffs reduce our trade deficit. That's not true. Brazil is a country with very high tariffs that actually also has a very high trade deficit. Germany mini on the other side has very very low tariffs and runs a huge trade surplus empirically. There's no relationship between tariffs graphs and the trade balance. If you want to improve the trade balance then you'd have to get Americans to consume less or Get American businesses to invest less. Either of those are mathematically directly linked to what the trade balance would be the final thing I'd say is who would say that it was a bad idea that the container was invented. Who would say? Say that America's made a mistake by inventing investing in our ports both of those are equivalent to tariff reductions. When when you have a container when you have better ports it makes it cheaper and easier to export and it makes it cheaper and easier to import the beneficiaries as of that are disproportionately Americans Consumers and in particular low income consumers who disproportionately by the imported goods if we put rocks in our harbours we banned the container that would reduce trade. But that wouldn't make Americans gins better off Jason. Thank you for that opening statement. Let's have your response to that. Alan Tonelson first of all. It's certainly been an unusual experience reinstated being labeled as a critic of infrastructure building. I have no problem with ports which of course not only handle foreign traffic but handle handle purely American domestic traffic. There's no doubt that specific tariff decisions can be criticized and should be criticized sized and recent tariff decisions are certainly no exception but the idea that the tariffs that have been imposed so far by is that the trump administration have had anywhere near the effect the damaging effect on lower income or working class. Americans just doesn't pass the laugh test. What is really hammered? Their living standards and their prospects has been very very substantial loss of manufacturing jobs throughout industry that have historically provided these kinds of US citizens and US residents with their best bet for achieving middle class lifestyles middle class living standards and generating even better opportunities -tunities for their children. We've lost over. Apparently short period of time sixty thousand factories in our country closed shuttered. God Six million jobs at least gone and now they're starting to come back. Finally the notion that tariffs don't reduce trade deficits as proven allegedly by the example couple of Brazil or even. Germany has absolutely no relevance to the current American experience. Because what we have seen. Is that the very substantial. Trump tariffs on Chinese imports have dramatically reduced the American merchandise trade deficit with China by the order of twenty percent year. Here today so far. That's a very considerable accomplishment. Lots unpack their allen adjacent L-. Let's have you respond to a key point. That's probably on many listeners. Minds this hi dear that a low tariff free trade is responsible for the hollowing out of American and other advanced economies industrial cores and has been negative in terms of its effect on working class. Blue collar workers. Do you accept that proposition. No and let's just look at the last year as a great experiment to test this proposition. We've ramped up tariffs on steel aluminum. We've ramped up tariffs on imports from China. And what's happened in the last year. We've lost manufacturing jobs. The trade deficit with China China has narrowed but America's borrowing from the rest of the world. Its current account deficit overall has actually risen and widened. So why why has all of this happened. Half of our imports are consumer goods but a half of our imports are intermediate goods that are used by American businesses. This American businesses import steel. They build cars. They sell those cars to Americans and they even export those cars around the world when you raise the price that American businesses have to pay for steel above the price that Japanese automakers have to pay for steel and German automakers pay for steal. American automakers have to pay more for steel than any automakers in the world if they're making cars in America that disadvantages our manufacturing facturing industries. And you have about forty jobs in industries that use steel for every job that's in steel and so for every steel job we've saved. We've paid a price of about nine hundred thousand dollars. According to one study and we've actually lost jobs in other manufacturing industries so on net this experiment that we've tried with higher tariffs to protect certain manufacturing industries has failed it's hurt American Erkin manufacturing hurt the trade balance and hurt the overall economy. You're listening to the munk debates. PODCAST resolved tariffs terrific. I'm your moderator. Read Your Griffiths Allen. Let's have you come back on Jason's argument here in a sense that the global economy is just too interconnected. You cannot have a high tariff regime a regime of kind of economic nationalist policy when it comes to trade because the trade offs just. I don't work as Jason has elaborated in this example with steel. Do you accept that argument. Not in the slightest first of all crucial to remember that that tariffs are not the only impediments to trade that governments around the world use non-tariff barriers various measures insurers. That are very difficult to identify often because foreign governments often operate in very secretive ways have become much more important than tariff barriers carriers and countries. That have either. High tariffs or high non-tariff barriers or some combination of those two have seen their manufacturing shrink sectors thrive and I would include Germany. And I I would include China. Of course second the idea that the last year's experience with manufacturing picturing in this country proves the tariffs don't work. It's just it's just not serious. For example. We had several technical manufacturing recessions during the previous administration for which Jason worked and there was nothing like the the level of tariffs imposed by President Obama as has compared with those imposed by president trump. We also had very substantial periods of manufacturing job loss and manufacturing jobs stagnation. So Jason Jason Biggs Notch just tariffs by any means Jason Alan's talking about an economic record that you were part of as a senior official in the Obama Administration and do you accept his argument that the low tariff regime the neoliberal agenda that was pursued by successive administrations both Republican and Democrat previous. Trump had fundamentally hurt American workers and American industrial capacity. Wise Allen Ron. Let's look look at China in Nineteen ninety-two China had tariffs that average. Thirty two percent. What you're calling the NEO liberal agenda push China in a very hard and by two thousand sixteen? It's average tariffs were down to three point. Five percent now in the trade war. They've gone up since then non-tariff barriers. The Alan is absolutely right. They're bigger deal than tariffs. That's why we pushed quite hard on that China's currency they were manipulating elating. Their currency we push very hard and got them to stop manipulating their currency. As a result their currency rose a lot in value and China China went from having a trade surplus or current surplus with the entire world of ten percent of GDP to coming down to nearly early balance. That was the result of constant pushing to get tariffs down to get non tariff barriers down. And that's an example zampa actually increasing global integration not decreasing it with its expanding power and prosperity also comes increased responsibilities. That's built And so we WANNA work with China to make sure that everybody is working by the same rules of the road when it comes to the World Economic MC system and that includes ensuring that there is a balanced trade flow Between the United States in China but around the world we need to do more to get those non-tariff barriers down. But the idea that you're going to help. American manufacturing facturing by forcing American manufacturers to pay higher prices for steel just defies common sense so allen. Let's move onto China because this is a major piece of this. Debate is somewhere where the politics economics really get. White-hot at this moment. What is the argument? Four war trump's tariff regime that is currently being imposed on China because as mature Jason and others will argue. It's having dilatory. CBS affects on the global economy. It may well be pushing the US economy into a recession. How is this in any way in the interest rest of American workers who will first of all if anybody can seriously say that there was a US recession coming anytime soon? That's really pretty astonishing. There's absolutely no sign of that. Have there been signs of slowdown. Absolutely have there have been signs of manufacturing slowdown and even a very mild recession. Absolutely but again the idea that tariffs have been mainly responsible simply flies in the face of all the other evidence. We have about all the other problems so that the American economy and the global economy have been experiencing that have nothing to do with President. Trump's tariffs whatever. What the president really needs needs to drive home? Theme American people is that the main purpose of these tariffs should be to hasten the decoupling of the US and and Chinese economies. That's already taken place and it's made very substantial progress. Since his inauguration this decoupling is necessary certainly not only for economic but for national security reasons because the United States high tech based in the United States defense manufacturing bases developed very very serious vulnerabilities regarding supplies of key Chinese products. And that's gotTa End Jason. What's your take on? The impact of trump's Significant African tariffs on China. And how that's affecting the American economy and how it speaks to this larger debate over whether tariffs are in America's economic interests in terms of the future. Sure the US economy Allen saying fundamentally there needs to be a decoupling here because there is a growing geopolitical rivalry in. It's a good thing that the Chinese and Chai merica is Is Splitting as a result of the pressures of these tariffs. Is that an argument that you would give some credence to so the tariffs have been a net negative for the US economy. You can debate. How big a net negative but there are negative the? US economy is big and strong. It's overcome that so far to continue to have solid job growth. Part of how it's overcome. It is an exceedingly unusual. All large reduction in the federal funds rate a monetary stimulus which would rarely see at this point in the economy plus we had a big fiscal stimulus last steer in the form of a large spending increase and a large tax cut. So we've had very very unusual macroeconomic policies which have kept the economy going despite the negative weight of the higher tariffs. That's in the short run. The question is in the long run could we. We decouple from China if the entire world wanted to decouple from China and we could have something like the cold Cold War we had with the Soviet Union where we built an iron curtain around China and on one side of it was Europe. The United States Japan and Australia and on the other side was China. There is a chance that would work. I'm not sure that would work but there is a chance. That's not what's happening though. Europe is is continuing to deepen its economic integration with China Australia Japan. All of those countries are deeply engaged with China Anna. The United States has a decent amount of leverage in the world but not an unlimited amount of leverage in the world and to the degree we try to decouple decouple from China that will just mean that the sales to China the investments in China investments from China will go to Europe. Will we'll go to Japan will go to Australia. That will leave the United States. Poor the United States weaker the United States more isolated that's not a recipe for for the success of manufacturing or any other part of the US economy so Allen Comeback on that point because it seems the preponderance of economic evidence suggests is that the future of global economic growth in the decades to come Israeli in Asia in Southeast Asia fuel by China fueled by the rise of Vietnam a whole series of countries. That are rapidly industrialising. How is it? In America's interest now to engage China in a tariff war that it has since excludes America from the opportunities to access growth and the economic multiplier that growth could have have on the US economy in the years to come. Isn't this just counter to America's long term economic interests what the preponderance of economic evidence it's also continues to forget. Is that the rise of this East Asia Pacific region which has been very impressive economically by any stretch has been heavily dependent on amassing enormous trade surpluses with the United States and PS. That's one big reason. Why Europe a Europe Japan and South Korea have also profited from China's rise in ways that the United States hasn't because in particular China's export oriented factories factories are filled with capital equipment from Germany Japan and South Korea and trump's trade? War has threatened to either turn turnoff or greatly stanch this big spigot of revenues that these extensively US allies have been profiting from for so long. This is why. US trade curbs have had such a pronounced effect on the global economy because not only stage about the entire economy released that portion. That really matters is heavily dependent for its growth on amassing gigantic trade surpluses with the United States. We are just starting negotiations with the European Union. Because they really shut out our country to a large extent they have carriers that they can trade with us but we can't trade with them very strong. Barry's is a very high tariffs. We don't just not fair and by the way if Europe and Japan and Australia if they want to welcome Chinese investment whole hog if they wanNA see China's state run economy gain a much bigger foothold in their own economies. If they're happy to see that happen more power to them and that really calls into question how reliable they're going to be Ads US allies and US trade partners going forward. They have some big questions that they've got to answer whether they like trump or not and they're not answering them very intelligently originally so far so look we've been talking about trump's application of tariffs to America's perceived adversaries notably China Jason what could be the rationale for applying tariffs to Europe which is arguably traditional American allies who share common belief in the liberal international order. Who could be allies in a fight against China in terms of the growing great-power rivalry that we witness? I mean isn't this. A completely against American can interest to poke Europe in the eye with tariffs at this moment. Yeah I'd love to one thing about China. Regarding what Allen said sure then then get to Europe if that's okay Allen's analysis of Chinese traits are pluses is more than a decade out of date in two thousand five if China had a surplus that was ten percent of its GDP. That was massive today. China is importing justice justice much as it's exporting it's not running a surplus with the world. The United States has seen a widening of its trade deficit with China the same time it seen a narrowing of its trade deficit with other Asian countries and some of this is just if the last stage in the production process is to assemble the good in China it gets recorded as an import from China even if many of the parts of it were made in other countries some of of them even in the United States so this has nothing to do with what the world looks like today and is a description of the world over a decade ago. What we want to look to you is the future where the future of jobs manufacturing has a role on that but services has a very important role in that the United States runs a trade surplus in services trying to overcome some of the barriers to our services and help us build up the strength of our service economy? I think is particularly important if you're enjoying this debate. Check out our website munk debates dot com for dozens of debates on the big issues of the day. Listen to Tony Blair. And Christopher hitchens debate whether religion is a force for good in the World Watch freed Sakaria. Neil Ferguson go head to head on the future of geopolitics. Read Stephen Fry nine Jordan. Peterson's debate on political correctness. All these debates free to listen watch and read at MUNK DEBATES DOT COM. If you're enjoying this podcast ask please share it on social media and write a review. We welcome your ideas for debates and debaters that we can feature on future shows. Please send us an e mail to podcast at MUNK DEBATES DOT com. Thanks for your help in bringing back the art of Public Debate one conversation at a time now back to our episode Alan. Let me come back to you. I think. Try to bring this debate down to the perspective of an individual electrician. A steel worker. Somebody who is not part of the knowledge economy Talk to that person. In terms of why they should welcome. Trump's current focus on tariffs as not simply a geopolitical tool but as a tool to refashion American industrial Israel policy to advance the interests of blue collar workers. What is that argument? The first point that I would make to these workers into their families is that there is absolutely no reason to think that tariff policy or trade policy alone including the new trade agreements like the US Mexico Canada Trade Agreement or any panacea to the kinds of challenges that the American economy faces. There's no question that many reforms on the purely domestic front need to be made also and there's also no question that the need for these reforms has been so far very sorely neglected by president trump. He needs to refocus on those very quickly at the same time. There's also no question that without a healthy. US manufacturing base. There is absolutely no prospect that the United States can remain. Hey leading global high-tech power because so much of high-tech involves manufacturing because because manufacturing is responsible for so much in fact the lion's share by far of private sector research and development. That's that's conducted in this country every year so if the manufacturing base is not world class and it certainly hasn't been recently and hasn't been frankly weekly for most of the immediate pre trump decades. There won't be a viable high-tech American economy. So Jason. Why would that? Let's say blue collar. Voters sitting being in Kentucky or Ohio. Be Wrong to think that president trump's current seemingly economic nationalist policies isn't in their the economic interest. A worker in the mid West can look around them and see. The manufacturing jobs are being lost because the many reasons since one of which is the cost of inputs into manufacturing the like steel and aluminum is going up. That makes it hard to compete. Some steel jobs have been saved by the tariffs other steel. Jobs have been lost. There's a lot of American steelworkers that are working in a foreign owned factory factory if it weren't for that foreign investment that factory wouldn't exist if it wasn't for the intermediate inputs steel that they were importing reporting in refashioning in to even better higher value steel steel mill wouldn't exist. You have steel workers that have lost their job because of steel tariffs and you have an awful lot of workers in every other industry in America that have lost their jobs. So I'd say look around and say do you like the trend friend. Job Growth is on in the last year. If your answer is yes then maybe like the tariffs second thing I'd say is do you shop for your family family. Do you buy backpacks for your children. Do you buy dishes. Do you buy televisions. The prices of all of these are higher because of these sorts of tariffs. That's not helping you. That's effectively like a wage cut on American workers so so before we go to closing statements for you both Allan. I want you to just to think about the last half hour so that we spend together. Is there anything that Jason has said. That would would lead you to rethink one of your core. Arguments are propositions today or do you remain completely unconvinced. We'll Jason's is a very fine economists. There's no question about that. But I was especially distressed by his focus on the trans-pacific partnership which really strongly indicates to me that he unfortunately hasn't learned to many of the lessons of US trade policy failures and I'll just make two points about that very quickly. TPP as negotiated by the Obama Administration contained a wide open back door for lots of goods with lots of Chinese content content. So the idea. That's been widely bandied about that. TPP would have been a much more effective curb on China's rise then and president trump's tariffs has completely ignored the crucial details of TPP which would have created enormous new opportunities for China. Allan you're foiling my attempt here for a brief Mon of conciliate this podcast. But no I enjoy the spirit of debate but Jason Similar question to you Anything anything that's Allen has said today that would give you kind of pause for thought in terms of your own views and opinions on our debate resolution. Sure on only early mentioned it briefly. But there's a lot. We need to do to invest in America to invest in American infrastructure to invest in American. RND The manufacturing sector punches. Well above its weight in terms of our D so more to subsidize businesses businesses doing. RND whether they're in manufacturing or not. That's an idea that would disproportionately manufacturing firm. So I think there are a lot of investments that we you need to make an America. We can't just assume you let the economy alone. You have no government and all of a sudden it's all going to take care of itself and thrive this a a lot. We need to do. I just don't think what we need is to have a bunch of lobbyists come in and pick and choose at random what tariffs to place on goods coming from abroad fair point. Well let's go to closing statement so Alan Tonelson we're GONNA put Two minutes on the clock. Let's have viewer. Were closing summation for this debate. As I said before. There is no shortage of grounds to criticize president. Trump's execution of America I trade aid policies in particular he can and should be faulted for not announcing clear China strategy for not explaining the economic and strategic stakes stakes comprehensively and for the on again off again nature of his tariffs which by the way have certainly been a significant contributor to business uncertainty in this country and certainly have slowed growth finally absolutely invest in this country in science and technology but this renewed and badly needed focus will greatly underperform our expectations if foreign governments remain free to steal or extorted intellectual electoral property and other valuable technology and to subsidize and dumped key industries out of existence. So again no question that that pure domestic reforms are needed to fully revive the American economy but substantially different trade policies. Along America. First lines have to be the major ingredient to Alan Tonelson. Thank you for those closing remarks. Jason Firm we're going to give you the last word with two minutes on the clock. Many ways president trump has done a useful service to advance the debate on globalization because he has advanced an anti-globalization agenda and it's become increasingly it. Clear that it hasn't worked and it's not just the execution of his agenda it's premises underlying those premises include that China's China's running large trade surpluses at the expense of the United States and the rest of the world will that's false because China's actually running balanced trade and you see countries with large trade deficits that do well and countries with large trade surpluses that do poorly. It's based on the premise. That get the items. We import solely can be understood as displacing American jobs when much of what we import is actually an input into to American manufacturing and into American production. It's based on the premise. That American consumers don't matter or won't be paying the tariffs that's false. American consumers do pay the tariffs in fact. It's disproportionately low income. American consumers that pay the tariffs. The the United States has overall Right now instead of some of these false and backward-looking premises. I think it's much more important not not to be distracted by thinking that America's problems were made in China that Americans problems were made overseas. But instead look at what we've done here in America to make those problems and contribute to them by under investing in infrastructure by under investing in research by under investing in education nation so instead of distracting ourselves and finding a convenient foreign enemy let's focus domestically make America more productive. Make it more competitive and make sure more American workers share in those benefits. Thank you Jason. Thank you for those closing remarks allergies and thank you for a substantive civil level and informative debate. I think this is exactly the type of Thoughtful conversation we need on these hot topics to expand our minds to reflect on on the big issues of the day and to come away with a new. Appreciate a shared understanding. So thank you both for your time. Today podcast is a place for the civil and substandard debate that we just heard on the big issues of the day to listen to more debates. It's on everything from climate change to religion. Geopolitics Future of human progress. Visit our website munk debates dot com. You can also find show notes on today's debate along with a full transcript on our website. Thank you for helping us bring back the art of Public Debate one conversation at a time. I'm your moderator. Raider rudyard griffiths. The Munk debates are produced by antica productions and supported by the Monk Foundation rudyard griffiths and Ricky Gerwig orig- are the producers. The executive producer of Antica is Stuart Cox. Be sure to download and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. And if view like US feel free to give us a five star rating. Thanks again for listening.

China United States America Jason Jason Biggs trump president trump Alan Tonelson China China China Grace Allen Germany President Jason Alan Jason Furman President Obama Europe RUDYARD Council of Economic Advisers
Could Raising Corporate Taxes Help Rebuild U.S. Infrastructure?

On Point with Tom Ashbrook | Podcasts

48:07 min | 2 weeks ago

Could Raising Corporate Taxes Help Rebuild U.S. Infrastructure?

"If there's one thing the american people and their politicians agree on its this. The nation's in frustration is crumbling. So president biden has unveiled his plan to turn things around american jobs. Pamela modernizing twenty thousand miles of highways and the roads and main street. He wants bipartisan. Support clan thousand. Bridges desperately needed upgrades unclogged traffic. Keep people safe. Says he's willing to negotiate new rail carter's transit lines easy congestion cutting pollution slashing commute time. He promises an economic renaissance and a healthier safer america. Bergen jobs will put plumbers and pipe fitters replacing one hundred percent nations lead pipes and service lines. Now it'll cost two trillion dollars. So how does president and biden hope to raise all that cash by raising taxes on corporate america. We're going to raise. The corporate tax was thirty five percent which is too high. We all agreed. Five years ago it should go down to twenty eight percent reduced. Twenty one percent. Raise it back up to twenty-eight precip no one should be able to complain about that is still lower than what that rate was between war. Two and twenty seventeen just doing one thing would generate one trillion dollars in additional revenue over fifteen years. I'm meghna chakrabarti and this is on point. And while the president might say be able to complain about that he's getting a lot of pushback already specifically from corners who say raising the corporate tax would make america less competitive so today we're going to take a step back and look at that big question. What does making america competitive really mean. And we'll start today. In hanover new hampshire with jack beatty on point news analyst. Hello jack okay. So give us your big take here on on biden's bold move on how he wants to pay for his massive infrastructure plan. Well essentially he tries to undo or reform of feature of one of the worst pieces of tax legislation passed in my lifetime. That would be the two thousand seventeen. Tump trump mostly corporate tax cut. It was a personal tax cut What was wrong with that. Well it in terms of its ostensible goals. It met none of them course. It's real goals were elsewhere what we extensible goals. Well president trump said. It isn't gonna it'll cost me. A fortune estimates are that The trump family could net between eleven million and twenty two million dollars a year from the tax cut and that the commercial real estate industry benefited enormously from features in it Another claim was that It would pay for itself wrong. It's going to add one point nine trip into the national debt. A further claim it would boost economic growth wrong. Economic growth grew the same the two years before the tax cut and the to as it did the two years after another claim it would boost. Investments corporations would take this a cornucopia open to them and pour it into new plant and equipment. No brookings institute no evidence that the trump tax cut boosted investment number number four. The claim was that this new investment would trickle down to workers because it'd be more productive with all the new plant and equipment but because there was not any new investment to speak of the the wage gains which the white house claimed between four thousand per family to nine thousand per family over three to five years. Those never came to pass. According to the congressional research service quote very little growth in wage rates and finally there was another claim that the changes in the international taxation system would prevent companies from discourage companies from moving abroad on the one hand and and investing abroad In fact there's some evidence that had a contrary effect that had actually increased some investment abroad. So what did if. The corporations didn't invest in plant and equipment. If none of those things happen what do they do with it. Well they engaged in an orgy of stock buybacks ccording to one estimate nine hundred twenty. Nine billion dollars of the tax cuts for corporations went to stock buybacks. Seven billion went to wage increases and of course stock buybacks. What's the incentives for those. Well they increase the value of ceo's salaries since those are tied stock price and struck by bax increase the value of stock which greatly benefits the ceo and the richest the the largest stockholders who are almost always a pretty well off people so it failed in almost every every claim made for it has has not borne out and then i said that was these were the ostensible. The real reason i think was put pretty well by and the reporting at the time makes it out one politician. Republicans said my donors basically saying get it done. Don't ever call me again. And of course. Senator jubilation t cornpone aka lindsey graham. He said quote. If congress didn't pass this bill. The financial contributions will stop. And there's strong evidence that the main motive for this bill and it succeeded. There was to increase the corporate corporation donations to the republican party. So changing this law quite apart from what you're going to use it for is probably good public policy in its own right because nothing. None of the claims have been born out. Inequality has increased and the average american has gained little or nothing. I guess there are about a thousand dollars in personal tax cuts but those have been almost eaten up by the eight hundred dollar estimate. In the trump tariffs have caused so Changing this law Quite apart from how you're going to use the money is a desirable public policy goal. So that's the big question right. How how do we fund a healthy functioning twenty-first-century america right like what what what is the mix of revenue sources for good governance functioning infrastructure healthy economy. And obviously there's differences of opinion on that jack for for example on monday. Senate minority leader mitch. Mcconnell was in lexington kentucky. And here's what he said. He thinks of the president's plan to increase the corporate tax rate. Can't imagine myself if that's the package. A bunch of more borrowed money plus undoing the tax relief that drove our economy fifty year high. I can't imagine that's going to be very appealing to many republicans infrastructure however is appealing and if we can figure a way to do it paid for god be open to it but not not what not what i think they're peddling subject just very briefly. Could your response to mcconnell the argument that he's he's in favor of the goal. Oh yes. I want infrastructure and i just don't want corporations to have to pay for it well then who should pay for it you know. According to poles it was one poll in two thousand six hundred sixty seven percent of americans think corporations pay too little that was before the trump a tax cut and of course the the biden proposed increase would not be all the way up to thirty five percent those dark days when corporations were struggling under the burden of this yuts laureus tax cut no no no tax burden. No we're only go up to twenty eight percent and if president mansion has its way it would really stop at twenty five percent so it. It's just hard to see how that's an argument. That makes any sense. Does he say does he want to the gas tax to go up ordinary people to pay for the infrastructure. Well interesting so you know what Always fascinates me about these conversations regarding taxation. Is we've in a sense. Been through all of this before so. Listen with me for a second jack. Because joe thorndike is a contributing editor at the nonprofit news service tax notes. He's a historian of corporate taxation. There is an expert for everything. I love this. He says that the issues we're dealing with today are nothing new basically when we're talking about the corporate income tax. We've been dealing with a lot of the same problems for about one hundred years. And what's remarkable to me is that many of these problems are no more resolved now than they were one hundred years ago and unresolved problems like what tax to set and what that means for corporations. Those are some examples in terms of how they have an impact on the national economy. My general take on taxes and the economy is that they're not as dangerous to the economy as conservatives would like you to believe nor are they as innocuous as liberals while you think i mean it's i i hate to just be a sort of pox both your houses thing but it is overstated on both sides of the equation but what we can say is that after world war two we had high corporate tax rates. The corporate tax rate was the top rate was a better than forty percent topped out at fifty two percent starting in nineteen fifty two and the economy was lauren. Now if i'm a conservative. I look back at that my say well. Of course it was because the of the world was in ruins after world war. Two america stood astride the world without real competition. We could afford to have high tax rates as opposed to now when we're competing really hard against countries all around the world. we can't afford high tax rates. Pretty reasonable point also. The history of corporate tax rates is blake p. Says nine hundred nine nine one percent world war one twelve percent world war two forty percent and then that fifty two percent in the middle of the twentieth century under republican president. Dwight d eisenhower. So that's the top of the hump right and then it starts to decline in those rates. Continue to fall nine hundred sixty nine hundred seventy up to nine hundred eighty and then they stabilize around in the nineteen bucks. Corporate tax laws are thicket of numbers and rules. Thorndike says tangled up in the number and rules. If you really want to figure out how much corporations should contribute to. The nation's coffers taxes ultimately a political issue don't the economist. It's not about it's not about efficient it's alternately hacks debates in this country and i can cite this a complete confidence attack. Historian tax debates in this country turn on questions of fairness and fairness is a political issue attached out at the voting booth. Joe thorndike is a contributing editor at the nonprofit news service tax notes and a corporate tax historian. Walking us through some of the history of corporate taxation in this country. We'll jack beatty standby as we take a quick break here when we come back. We'll do what thorndike says. We're actually going to hash. Some of this out on the level of economic and political analysis and harvard as social media by the way facebook or twitter where on point radio and let us know what you think about president biden's proposal to raise the nominal corporate tax rate in this country to fund infrastructure. We'll be right back. This is on point support for on point and the following message come from trupanion. Trupanion is changing the way people think about protecting their pets. They've got over. Twenty years of experience offering industry leading medical insurance for cats and dogs with no payout limits and they're the only provider who can pay partnered vets for approved claims directly at the time of checkout. So you don't have to wait for a reimbursement check anymore. Make sure your pet gets the care. They need get trupanion. Visit trupanion.com today to get a quote and start protecting your pet demand for telemedicine grows. So does the need for connectivity. Five g. meets that meet. Qualcomm remains focused on giving doctors and patients superior security rich five g. Connectivity learn more at qualcomm dot com slash invention age. this is on point. I'm meghna chakrabarti in this hour. We are exploring. President biden's proposal to increase the corporate tax rate in order to pay for his massive infrastructure bill the two trillion dollar proposal that he has recently put out joined today by jack beatty. He's on point news analyst. And let me bring into the conversation a couple of other folks now. Jason furman joins us. He's former chairman of the council of economic advisers under president obama. He was president obama's top economic advisor for both his terms in office and he's now a professor at harvard kennedy school of government. Welcome to on point. Great to be with you. Also joining us as pam olson. She served as assistant secretary for tax policy at the us department of the treasury As the department top tax official from two thousand to two thousand four under president george w bush former partner as well at the accounting firm price waterhouse coopers p wc pam olson. Welcome to you. Thank you good to be with you. So as much as i thrilled to the idea of parsing through the nitty gritty of president biden's tax proposal proposal which we will in just a second. I actually want to re frame this conversation a little bit to this. This bigger deeper question of really what will it take. What shape should a truly competitive united states or what shape to should the economy take to make the united states truly competitive in the twenty first century. What does competitiveness actually mean and in order. Set that up. Let me offer you two different views of that first of all. Here's us chamber of commerce executive vice president. Neil bradley he was on fox business Just last week. And he says the business community wants to negotiate with the white house about that corporate tax the proposed corporate tax increase and then he stated his primary concern with biden's plan as it stands now infrastructures. The most popular idea that same is to never get done. But when it comes to the pay fors you may be able to pay for this with massive tax increases that have been proposed. But they're gonna make. Us companies much less competitive. It will make the american tax code less competitive than was internationally even during the obama administration and all of that means fewer american jobs now on monday speaking to the chicago council on global affairs treasury secretary janet yellen raised a different viewpoint. A different definition of what she believes. Competitiveness means in the twenty first century. Competitiveness is about more than how us headquartered companies fair against other companies in global merger and acquisition bids. It's about making sure. The governments have stapled tax systems. There is sufficient revenue to invest in the central public goods and respond to crises and that all citizens fairly shared the burden of financing government. So jason furman and pamelas jack beatty and jason. I'll start with you. Urinalysis your your judgment. On janet yellen definition of competitiveness competitiveness for today. Yeah magna i think Chatted secretary yellen. Has it basically right Competitiveness economists you prefer the word productivity or productive. It's how much people can make per hour and that depends on a lot of things. You need ports. Unique great education you need to include people who have otherwise been marginalized so that they can make the best contributions onto the us economy. And yes i do think the tax system is relevant was bates over. The tax system are primarily political but doesn't mean we shouldn't think about the economics of it and swallow you wouldn't want a corporate tax rate of ninety nine percent but we'll come back to i think the biden proposal is quite reasonable in historical comparative economic perspective and pam. Yellen's pretty specific here. I mean she says it's more than just where companies are are. Us companies headquarters. How headquartered here how they fair In terms of i guess profits and even number of jobs your analysis of that. Well i'd say first the reference to i as just a straw man. Argument doesn't really have anything to do with the debate. I do think it matters whether or not the us headquartered companies are competitive Are able to so so. If you have to high a tax rate what you do is you. Put a discount on the assets held by american companies. They're more valuable in the hands of somebody else. I think it matters whether or not we have. Us headquartered companies. And i think most business people think it matters whether or not we have whether we have. Us headquartered companies. So i don't think we want a system that means that. Us companies are acquired by foreign companies on a regular basis. So we need to focus on that but the thing that matters most is the headline on the senate finance committee hearing a couple of weeks ago. We want policy. That's good for american workers jobs and investment. And that's where we've got to put our focus and that means that we need infrastructure that means that we need to invest in our people we need to improve our education. We need to all of those things. We need to make sure that we're taking care of disadvantage and then the question comes back to. How do we best on that And the Corporate income tax. I think is popular because it's There's an old line from senator russell long Don't tax me. Don't text the text. The fell behind the tree and the corporation is the fellow behind the tree. Because nobody really understands how it's taxed or what the impact is and so we go to the corporation and say the corporation should pay more tax. It is a political decision but we should use what we know about economics. And about how business. Response things to do the best job shaping our tax policy and raising the amount of revenue that. We need to build the kind of society that we want. But isn't it true though. I mean the the the the person behind the tree if we're if we continue on with that That analogy there if pre- if we allow ourselves to presume that that person's corporations right now that What is it at this moment. seven percent federal revenues comes from corporate taxation. What more than how or half of it comes from individual income taxes but that seven percent from corporations is a shadow of what it once was. So i mean we. We actually know we have. We have factual data that the amount of federal revenue from corporations has been has gone down significantly. You know across the the twentieth century. Yeah actually that's that's not right. I mean if we go way back we go back before nineteen eighty Which i know. Jason has some charts that he's shown that show how much higher it was but we also got a very different economy today than we did back if we look at it in more recent years like the last forty years. Say what you find is that orbit receipts have have stayed fairly constant. And that's despite a drop in the tax rate and the reason that's despite a drop in the tax rate is because the base to which the taxes applied has increased. That's happened every time that we've done a reduction in the rate with expanded the base so we ended up collecting fairly similar mount in corporate tax. Jason you wanna respond to that. Yeah if you look. The united states has a statutory rape official rate of twenty one percent. there's also state level taxes so that gets the total to twenty six. That's actually lower than the tax rate that you have in canada. Italy japan germany and france five of the other g seven economies the only g seven economy with a lower statutory tax rate than the united states is the united kingdom and gets what they're proposing to raise. There's they're conservative. Government has proposed to increase their corporate tax rate to roughly where the us one is now a moreover those rates that i just told you about. That's the official right. That's the statutory rape that's written into the legislation of if you look at what companies actually pay. It's less than half. I'm from an economic perspective. The relevant concept and all of my friends in economics from across the political spectrum would agree. Is something called the effective. So that's in practice marginal because this is what affects your decisions. tax rate. The effective marginal tax rate that american companies face is eleven percent that's that's quite low. And so i think if you look at where tax rates have been in the past you look at where tax rates are in other countries. There is room to raise them on corporations in the united states today. Now i wouldn't go back. The con- agree pound economy has changed the economy's different. The world has moved on. I would not go back to the thirty. Five percent rate that we had Before president trump but going back to twenty eight percent actually pretty close to what the business community itself was asking for in two thousand seventeen. It would be reasonable in light of where other countries are an importantly it would be part of a shift in the way other countries tax tra- weight from trend of the race to the bottom. We've had for decades. The united states helping arrests that trend and move it in the opposite direction. So just wanna disappoint of clarification here because we can do this analysis. I we can do this. Analysis from the difference between the nominal and the effective tax rates. Point really taken pam. I also hear you in terms of the expansion of the overall tax base which then leads to a greater doll like the actual physical number of dollars going into federal coffers but the number i wanna drive that is is the percentage of federal revenue that is brought in through corporate taxation right so that should take into account the difference between nominal versus versus effective. And it should take into account the increased tax base right. So right now. Is it not true. Jason the percent of federal revenue coming in from corporations to the united states government is about seven percent of total federal revenue. Yes and and how much. How much lower is that than what it has been before. But that's that's a decent amount lower. I think that's might be the lowest it's been up partly it's at some companies are paying taxes not through the corporate system. But they're paying through. The individual system itself often raises a host of problems. But it's also because especially with regards to international things. Companies are getting better and better at saying that. They earned their profits overseas. Whether or not they actually did and avoiding paying taxes and one of the things at the biden proposal that seven percent That would go up. Wouldn't go up a huge amount on. It wouldn't be higher on that it's been over the last couple decades would just restore it A little bit to the against the reductions that we've seen and so do so bam let me turn back to you. Then do you think that again keeping with this lens of creating a competitive economy for the united states that that percent of federal revenue from corporations should go up a little. What's the right amount. I don't know what the right amount is. But we go back to those again. What we want is not just a fair share of tax burden being born but economically. We want more investment in the united states. That's what's going to generate more jobs. Here in the united states is going to build stronger. Economy create more opportunities rising wages all those great things that i think. People of all political stripes want and so the What we have to make sure is that we have a rate that will attract that kind of investment here in the united states than abroad. And if we look at that as jason mentioned about twenty six percent in the us taking into account federal and state and local where that puts us on. The chart is at the high end of the pack. Yes we are below a few countries but one of the countries you mentioned was france. France is about to lower its rate to twenty five percent when you uk increases its rate to twenty five percent. They'll both still be below the united states. So are there a few higher than us. There are if we go to president. Biden's twenty eight percent. Ben were we're going to be as back in number one position at the d. That's not a recipe for attracting investment in the united states. Even if we stop at something closer to the middle say twenty five percent were still going to be very much at the high end With respect to the ocd on effective average tax rates again. We're above the ocd average. And the same thing if we looked at at the rates. We are above the ocd average. So what we want is a system that will attract investment into the united states. I don't know what the magic number is but right now were slightly above the rest of the pack. We are no longer the number one place for foreign direct investment. China took that spot and twenty twenty. So we need to really make sure that we're focusing on creating a system that will attract investment. Because that's what's going to create jobs. That's what's gonna create rising wages. That's going to provide more opportunities for americans. And i build the kind of society. Jack you've been listening in. You share some thoughts here. Well i have actually a question for our economists. How does secretary yellen's proposal for an international minimum corporate tax fit into this. I mean she argues that would prevent or at least mitigate the race to the bottom the kind of arbitrage between going to investing in the company in the country with the lowest rates. Doesn't that sort of firm up the the argument that even a slightly higher rate here will not be so deleterious since there's going to be an international agreement about setting rates and he response to that. Yeah i i agree. That's a very important point I wouldn't first of all compare the us tax rate to all the always oecd countries that includes countries like lock via lithuania. Those are really small countries. They have a strategy of having low tax rates. in order to attract companies. The united states has a strategy of being a great economy with educated workers great infrastructure and key market. That's why we have companies not because of some type of tax competition that you see the small country so i'd compare us to larger countries and then yes if you have an effective international system you can drive some wedge between your tax rates and tax rates in other countries Pam's right under the biden plan. Would we be towards the upper end in terms of tax rates go from the lower end to the upper end but that would work because there would be. If moved overseas you would still have to pay taxes in the united states. They have this proposal for twenty one percent minimum tax rate if you go to germany and they've higher rate than that you don't need to pay that minimum tax rate so does not interfere with the company's ability to do real business but if you go to a tax haven and you pretend you're there pretend dollar profits are there you're still going to have to pay twenty one percent back to the united states and so this proposal would allow us to have a different tax rate than other countries moreover we'd be doing a lot to encourage and create incentives for other countries to adopt this minimum tax rate. No jason go ahead. Finish your thought and then pam when we come back from a break. Let you respond to. But jason got about thirty seconds before the court. International corporate tax discussion is just very different today than it's been for the last several decades for the last several decades all the pressure's been rates going down and let's not tax income overseas now. There's a global conversation about how to stop that race to the bottom and start collecting corporate revenue. The united states is moving from a laggard in the discussion to a leader in that discussion. Well jason furman and pamela and jack beatty hang on here we will come back from the break and talk more about this global minimum tax rate proposal because it is big discussed right now in fact today amongst international leaders in europe. So we'll be right back. This is on point. This is point. Magnetron choco bardy tomorrow on the show. We're going to be talking about rising rates of infertility in this country. And there seems to be a pattern in western nations a decades long decline in sperm count. And so we're gonna talk to a researcher who wonders if we're on the way to a fertility crisis and we want to know if this is something that you have struggled with Struggled with infertility. We want to hear your story. Call us at six one seven three five three zero six eight three six one seven three five three zero six eight three today. We are talking about president. Joe biden's a big plan to rebuild america's infrastructure and at the core of that plan how to pay for it he's proposing an increase in the nominal corporate tax rate in this country. But really the deeper question is what will it take to make a competitive economy in the united states for the twenty first century. What is competitiveness really mean. And how do we get there. I'm joined today by jason furman. He served as chairman of the council of economic advisers. under president. obama pam. Olson is with us. She served as assistant secretary for tax policy at the treasury. Under president george. W bush and jack beatty on points. News analyst is with us as well and pam. I just wanna Here a little bit from treasury secretary. Janet yellen on this issue of the idea of The global minimum corporate tax rate Which is being discussed by the ocd and the g twenty currently at work on a potential deal and they could maybe have something done by the summer. But here's yellen. Were working with g twenty nations to agree to a global minimum corporate tax rate. That can stop the race to the bottom together. We can use a global minimum tax to make sure at the global economy thrives based on a more level playing field taxation of multinational corporations. Pembleton your thoughts about that. Especially as yellen identifies what. She calls the race to the bottom the global race to the bottom on taxation rates. Sure so the first thing i'm gonna do is say that There isn't a global race to the bottom that is more hyperbole than fact There has been a dramatic reduction in corporate rates from nineteen eighty to twenty twenty but ninety percent of the rate reduction was over by two thousand seven so the the race to the bottom. To the extent there was one is over it has long been a race to the middle As jason mentioned the uk is coming back from nineteen to twenty five percent or so. They say we'll see whether or not they actually implement that when the time comes france on the other hand and columbia that to number one and two positions at the ocd right now are coming down so france coming down to twenty five percent. So there's not just isn't a race to the bottom. There's a race to the middle and the us was part of that effort in two thousand seventeen. The idea of global minimum tax has been around for at least twenty five years. The ocd was working on a Harmful tax competition project to set a global minimum tax rate back in nineteen ninety-six. It never went anywhere The obama administration During its second term one the ocd was working on the base. Aversion profit shifting or baps plan put the concept of a global minimum tax on the table. There were no takers. So it didn't even make its way into the list of the final fifteen items from the cdc. It took the united states. Actually enacting a minimum tax before the other always oecd countries decided they were interested in it and started working on it as part of the current project on digitalization of the economy. So this one of the important things to realize what the minimum tax is. It is about secondary right tax. It's so it's a right to tax income that's earned somewhere else in the united states other than the united states somewhere outside of the united states and it is so it's going to be it's going to be out come in after another country has asserted primary taxing jurisdiction to the extent that there was a failure in the tax cuts and jobs act and i actually think it was a remarkable bipartisan policy development achievement. it comes from the fact that the united states did try to do more to lay down a marker for what the global prophets share was that it's entitled to tax bats on the table at the ocd right now as well. It's pillar one of that conversation as opposed to pillar to but so you know. The the global minimum tax could be useful to united states companies in setting a four on taxation so other so that companies headquartered somewhere other than the united states would have to live with the same kind of rules. But we're not talking about a twenty one percent rate What the what's on the table at that. We see something more like a twelve and a half percent. And i don't see any indication that other governments are willing to go as high as twenty one percent setting your corporate tax rates is about sovereignty. And it's something that countries have been unwilling to give up a four and. I'll be very surprised if they're willing to make that large concession to go to a twenty one percent minimum rate this time around. Yeah your sovereignty. Point is well taken so we will see what happens as year unfolds. But i'm gonna keep coming back to this again. I'm going to give it one more shot here. Because i think that like we're at a at a. We're at a moment where nationally. It's a good thing to rethink or think through again. What are the flows of revenues. And where should we get them from. Just within the united states to build the kind of economy that we want and i guess long-term listeners of the show will know that i get kind of stuck on certain graphs and i am right now. Looking at a historic graph of of shares of federal revenue. Like where the money's coming from and just after nineteen from nineteen forty five to roughly twenty nineteen the line for individual income taxes pretty steady or in the period after world war two the share federal revenues coming from corporate income taxes is roughly between thirty to forty percent payroll taxes at that time is less than ten percent today that has flipped. It's completely flipped. We're far we're relying far more on payroll taxes on incomes on workers than we are on corporations for federal revenues. Now the reason why raise that to bring that back to the question of how do you pay for infrastructure is. Because i'm here inc's right now saying well. Increasing the corporate tax rate in the united states isn't the way to go. Let's do user fees. That's that should be part of the mix here and i'll be perfectly i spent. We're we're based here in boston. It's the national show now but we're based in boston for years. I covered transportation in this city and it has always stayed with me. This was like ten years ago. The head of the transit authority here in boston said the nba of the transit authority. Every week brings in a million rides for for workers brings them into the city in that. He just who work in boston every week. A million rides and yet somehow that fact and the economic impact of that fact almost never factored into analyses of of the utility or how the was being run. The nba was being run. It was all about Fair receipts and state income state revenues versus how much it was costing costing to run the tea. So we've somehow managed completely decouple. These things You know infrastructure and business wellbeing. When they're actually totally very they're very intrinsically coupled. I don't. I don't understand what we keep looking to workers to pay the difference. I don't get it. Jason from and can you help me help. Explain that of al-qaeda clinics i don. I don't think i one hundred percent agree with you can tell me if you agree with let me put a finer point on the on the t. Answer again i covered. I mean you might ride the t. Jason here but i i i never once heard state officials dare to say we help move a million workers into the city every week to to be in your offices. Maybe you guys ought to help a little bit more to keep this system running healthily. So it's a few things first of all. I think it would be completely fine to do a lot of the infrastructure plan without even paying for it. So i've you. President biden is having proposed to separate plans. One is for infrastructure. One is for corporate taxes. I think they're both reasonable. They're things i'd tweak both of them. I don't think they actually need to be done together. When you make an investment that's a twenty year investment you can borrow over a twenty year period of to finance. It's a first of all. I don't even love the frame of you have to pay for the second thing i'd say is that we have built the highway system for the nineteen fifties up through president clinton in nineteen ninety-three financed by a gas tax. The gas tax federal gas tax was last raised in nineteen ninety three was raised to eighteen cents a gallon and hasn't been raised since then. There's been a lot of inflation since then. So that means we've effectively cut the gas tax and we've broken the link between the people that used the highway system and the people that pay for the highway system and i think that's a bit of a shame If you have a gas tax you'd use less gasoline. You'd have less wear and tear on the roads. You can use fees for driving in boston Traffic fees that you have in stockholm london and cities around the world can be a great way to reduce your traffic. So i think there's a lot of room for user fees but magnolia agree with you when you're setting them you wanna take into account the benefit side of the ledger for the people using that transportation And the cost side night. Put more of them on drivers. Because that's where we have more traffic problems and the like Jack what do you think you know. I think the the case for a user tax here is strong one. The trouble is it runs into president. Biden's i think perhaps new prudent promise that he wouldn't raise taxes any taxes on people. Earning less than four hundred thousand dollars a year. A gas tax would obviously fall on everybody. Everybody who drives. And that as i understand it within the administration that is one of the barriers to moving in that direction in terms of raising the gas tech gas tax. He wants to keep his promise even because he could qualify it by saying no one's income taxes but he hasn't says they won't pay a penny more in taxes. Presumably that means gas taxes too. And i don't want anyone to to misunderstand me. I actually do believe that. Some kind of user fees should be part of the big mix here. But i guess i you know again. I was thinking about the economy. As a whole. I mean we're still in reuss still defining users as individuals as the people behind the wheel. Jason or right or buying the tickets for for the train but the really businesses are endpoint users here because the they rely on people being able to move around pandemic aside for a healthy healthy economy mean pam said this earlier that i think it was used at earlier that one of the things that that the united states needs in order to be competitive or healthy water systems transportation systems things like that so by that definition businesses are users of said systems. Are they not while they are and they obviously pay for part of that through their taxes and then their workers are paid by them and the workers taxes as well as the workers fees go to support those systems. So i mean it. All does work through the system in one of the things that Not understood and there. Lots of disagreements about it is that the corporate income tax as well is born in part by workers. And i think most economists agree that at least some share. The corporate income tax is borne by workers wide variation in the extent to which it's eight but so the the wages that the workers are paid should go into funding their transportation to work however they get to work and that means it's coming from the employer because of course the employers paying the wages so it's an indirect way of getting there but nonetheless it gets there I do think we need to look at some other revenue sources. I know that there are objections. To some of the other revenue sources as being regressive The most obvious example is a value added tax which could pay for a whole lot of the things that we would like to do and it is the mechanism that every other country around the globe or nearly every other country around the globe has adopted to pay for the things that they want for their society to build a better society. And it's something. I think we should look at and again. I know some people. Object that it it it's regressive but it's also a very efficient way of raising a lot of revenue and if you take the revenues and you put that into government that builds a more progressive system on the government side then that can weigh more than offset the regressive tax. So i think we need to look at some of those things. Obviously you know. The user fees and the gas tax is jason mentioned. We're also concerned about the environment. Climate change and a user fee or a carbon tax. Something like that could go a long ways towards meeting some of the administration's other goals of creating a healthier plan. So we've just got a minute and a half left and lots of listeners are wanting us to raise a really important point that has to do jason with You outlined the difference between the nominal and The effective tax rates that both individuals and corporations pays and a lot of folks are are saying well. Why don't we just close the loopholes essentially whether or not you see them as loopholes that allow corporations to reduce their taxable income in many cases down to zero And then you eliminate the difference between the nominal and and the effective just got about a minute left to go jason. That would take a lot of action in congress but is that not an important part of this story. Some reason that effective tax rates are lower. Bad like you hide your income overseas. We should rid of those and the biden proposal would get rid of a lot of those. Some of them are good. We have subsidies for research. We have subsidies for clean energy. We have expensing for business equipment. Which i happen to like and so i think it's okay if the things that are desirable lower. But let's get rid of all the bad reasons that your effective tax rate ends up lower. A lot of those are internet. The biden plan. Something snuck in there that if a company is paying zero in taxes that there would be instead a fifteen percent minimum tax on financial statement income. That's in the proposal to would just got a couple of seconds. What do you think about that. I don't. I don't love that proposal. I would rather get rid of the loopholes and tax tax. What you wanna tax at the rate you wanna tax it rather than have two different systems next to each other. Well jason furman former chairman of the council of economic advisers under president obama now at the harvard kennedy school of government. Thank you so much for joining us. Great to be with you and pam olson secretary of tax policy in the treasury under president. George w bush. Thank you as well for joining us. Haram got to be with you. And jack beatty jack beatty on point news analyst. Thank you so much as well. Jack as you mega meghna chakrabarti. This is point.

united states jack beatty biden jason furman meghna chakrabarti Janet yellen joe thorndike pam olson secretary yellen obama administration
Episode 158: Restructuring your business for health

The Canine Paradigm

1:30:17 hr | 4 months ago

Episode 158: Restructuring your business for health

"What's happening in the canine industry for all the latest news. Views and expert opinions. Stay right here for the canine paradigm. You'll hear from industry leaders. Experts doyennes of the industry learn colleagues movers and shakers and the odd randy guest get the latest insights and expert advice from both here and abroad from the people in the nov. Now here your hosts glenn cook and pat steward am lofty fulton. And i'm outta here. You know what it is. A new month is yeah. It is and. I'm thinking to myself that we should probably have something like a month cold support. Elsa voters support support support l. supporters. We've got some people who support show. Yeah and i want to show them some love okay. Yeah so we've got someone who is regularly supporting our show who's the industry will fade himself jackson feminine from quit on zwick. Quip is yeah. I know you're a fan of jason's equipment you know what these id's in my head Let's go with lack of god they saw idea for and i want it to be this big and this round and made a leather. You got one and he goes. No that doesn't exist. You idiot but i can get up. Made do it. He's pretty good like that. The disney yeah. We should get spring the book van these frigging merge might support the both here the bulls. Yeah but we've got people in other parts of the world notable fail. tell me mac lapointe. My point is french for mark for not a buffet for notable fed and he is from canada namic on amex in canadia. Please don't slow this down. So if i were in north america. That's where i'd be getting more. Yeah working with from. He's got a great array of gear as well. Douse yeah. And he's a very generous guy. Yeah you know who else is a supporter of the show that would have to be kindred on no benway at good friend mel benway. She is got to be one of the best travel to your home train. The dog in your home dog training that is slightly in the area. That she's in which virginia or ashland genius ashland virginia but she services all the area around the she's a pain a great support for the show and also a great support for the international association of nine professionals at try. We are proud members of as well absolutely. Yeah so if you're in austria. A need dog requirement Jason furman on zwicky dot dot grinds for north america. Working don't quit -ment michalak a and if we're in ashland virginia richmond virginia yup in that general area. And you need pet dog training. Melanie benway melanie. Benway kindred keen on that welcome back to the can paradigm. I'm your host pat stewart joining studio by my co host. Glenn cook and today joining us all the way from the. Us is the pres- ashland ashland. Virginia ashland virginia. We said it so many times on that little edge at the front actually virginia. Well we only said at once on the ad is trying state mill. The little town is known for little train station. So it's for whatever reason the people here are obsessed about the trains and they come video trains coming through town. I've heard tuten from your house. When i was dying in andhra you can hear it all all the time. No glenn had the runner over the oh man. Whatever i had it was well. I think it was twenty nelson. Hodges hey what's going on. What's news what's happening. You're part of the woods stay busy. I got really lucky. Through all of this and i haven't talked a lot about it because i know that there's people out there that is now going but my home school program was perfectly designed for pandemic mhm no other than closing down for a couple of weeks to figure out how i needed to it. What in if. I needed to change anything. I've been business as usual sense and booking out into march now. The guy was message. England that i need to find a few more trainers in this area that i refer to because pushing puppies out to training until six or seven months of age is an ideal I refused overbook myself. So it is what it is you do one ed on the canaan paradigm and boom. So let's recap who you are because when was the last time you on. That was like year and a half goes. Yeah well. I think it was back before you were the president. Or you're yeah i was president. It was worth in two thousand and nineteen conference so you are president of the ict pay. How long have you been in that job. Hello have you to go. This'll be the end of my second year. As president six years on the board and then i just got reelected and i've got two more years to go while locking it. Do you enjoy being the press. I do like it. It's made me grow in a lot of different ways. Let's taught me a lot about myself and strength. That i didn't know i had. And then you know. The board we have. This year has been phenomenal. And i'm really looking forward to the new directors we have coming on and some of the projects we going. So it's it's an interesting time to be president. There's so much going on and we have some really hard working committees so it's been really neat. I'm enjoying it. We're gonna talk about more stuff to do with you and your business. But i am interested in your responsibilities as the president and i think that a lot of people certainly will we hope. And we've been trying to get as many analysis to go join the. Cpa is possible. And i think that it's worth people understanding that it's a volunteer organization right like so when people The hot topics and people wanna response from the organization immediately. And i think lightly certainly what we've seen a couple of big ticket items like whatever shopper was no longer feeling callers and stuff like that like people want people want he from the paid today and they don't understand like that's probably not not only is that not a good move but it's actually probably not possible so tell us a little bit about that like what is the role of the president really do day today and tell us how many hours a week are you putting into that and tell us about your enormous salary. Packages zero dole. Is that you get for that output. I probably don't want to stop and think about how many hours a week i mean even just today. I was on the phone interviewing people for potential job. I mean i talked to home office every day. And then between following up with the different committees. Anytime there's a grievance or a complaint or working with sponsors headphone co-sponsors with sponsors martin. Delia to keep track of all of our sponsors and everything. And now we've transitioned at role to jeff star piano and dana in home office though it's become a every aspect of the organization. I'm involved in in one way or another so it went from being something that i thought was only going to require ten hours a month. Which is when all you know. It says that's all the directors are responsible for doing. It's just it's more into something part of that's good because it's growth right is that it means that we're doing something right if i'm this busy. And if the committee's are this busy are directors or this busy. It does mean that we're doing something right but it's a lot of work more than i thought it was going to be when i first signed up for it but it's been good by you saw end up again so you're managing that you considering the amount of time that i know that you and i i log. I've just various things to do with board work and futures of what we're doing and the role in the european comedian so forth. I can't even begin to think of how much your working across the board with. All the other directors because there's any other directors other. There's like eight other people or something like that on the board so if you think of the time that way talking and then you talking to everybody else. That's a monstrous effort. And and i'm lucky that with the way my work is structured. I have more time than someone else might. That was running your own business so it was sort of perfect timing when tyler was coming off of his presidency and me stepping into the role. I also happen to start a business. The same year i started being the president but with my business model it just it afforded me a lot more time than i think. Most people might have had so it worked out. There's been moments where it has been stressful and to your point. Pat is like things like the head coach stopping the sale of electronic devices. I understand people's want for gut reaction just to get out there and fire in you know. Shoot from the hip but one. That's not my personality in. I think the best way to approach things that are emotionally driven like that is to collect a cool head and approach it from a more logical standpoint than an emotional standpoint and sometimes that because it was setting so even for me so i needed to take a moment to breathe and formulate a response. That was gonna come across educated and respectable and not emotional because they were taking emotional road and it was not evidence based so i think that's one of the interesting things like certainly observed since being a member of the pay sort of being on that legislative committee con of having a little bit of a window into how the the board works out bang on the boba having a a reasonable understanding of it. Is i think. certainly i've noticed. Some people get frustrated by the time that things can take to get done inside to use an example in the pastas been members. That have say problems have been pointed out about them and everyone wants an immediate response because us an individual can say. Do what you want an you really only you know. Of course you're opening yourself lazily anything that could come of the but that's you and your responsibility whereas i think some people don't necessarily know that you know there's there's rules about how these things have to go within an organization and organizations like the pay and all the others move slowly and carefully because they're not just beholden to individuals that that would say these things then it's the organization and it's the people that represent so like as an individual you can get online and say fuck this guy or fuck these people and do whatever you want and you get to do that with relative impunity because you represent yourself and it's unlikely that be organizational. That person is gonna come after to you as an individual but as an organization locked say all responses to everything have to be very measured and calculated. Because if melanie benway too. So i had. I'm gonna come out and say fuck you to any person or organisation. And she does that the president then she does that on our behalf and maybe the representatives don't feel that the people should represents doesn't don't feel the same way or she opens not just herself to liability but opens all of us to ability. So that's one of the things. I wanted to sort of. Just sorta point out wire on the show and have a discussion about that. And i guess thank you for your level heading in that space and sort of give people a perspective of understanding how these things actually roll. The board has to get together. Have to agree on these things have to go through. The boileau is make sure we actually allowed to take these action that we wanna take. What's the process. We have to go through blah blah blah. Right it is. We have roughly twenty five hundred members relying on us to make decisions for them. And you can't please everybody that's impossible but we owe it to them to make smart choices so that this organization stay strong continues to grow versus. You know it could be one legal action. If we make we make a wrong move with a grievance or a complaint we could bring down the whole organization one of the things that going. What pet was talking about before in the time that i've got you on the board. I you and i have become quite close friends and one of the things that i've enjoyed most about that is that you always exercise a very high degree of integrity. Everything do like you. Don't compromise your position or like you don't put l. friendship or outboard work in front of the job that needs to be done and it's one of the things i've admired greatly about. You is that you do put yourself in a position where you understand the integrity and the professionalism. And certainly the responsibility of the euro. And i mean look bain positions with other people like it has been a bit of an all boys club. I think things have changed a lot. There's a lot more. Transparency in the white people conduct business. I mean there's still room and openness for corruption in certain things and that certainly falls to an individual's behavioral or groups behavior yet. But the one thing that i've really liked and i appreciate and admire bet you mail is that you don't put yourself in that position and you haven't put me in that position as well and we've still been avenue joy at great level of friendship have some very funny guy chats and when it's primarily i guess like my relationship with maria diaper who owned the company. I work for the best of friends but when it comes to work we have difficult conversations that we need to have and we always make sure that there's a divide between al friendship and the work that we need to do and i've enjoyed that same level of respect and friendship from years. Well so i guess in a nice way. It's may saying. I really appreciate you. Thank you. I appreciate that. I think it goes back to when i was asked to be on the board six years ago. You know. they're up. Quite a few people on the board that i was with than i developed friendships swiss and i made it one of the things i said was that i'm not a yes man it. I can be your friend all day long. But i will set that friendship aside to do what i think is right for the organization now. We are director driven right. So i can come up with the zillion good ideas and maybe some shit wants to. But it ends up becoming. What is the board think. What's the majority of the board. So i wanted for me. It's very important to be able to draw that line between friendship. Because i have made some wonderful being on this or like i consider tyler muto a close friends. Mainly who's coming off the board now is just a remarkable friend. But i have to separate those two and it's something that is very important to me to be able to separate a personal relationship from what is a nonpaying working relationship. Here's a question for you. Because we just i just pointed at how you have to be careful of representing the blah blah blah. But i want your personal opinion. What's your vision for the is they pay like. Where do you say that going. Not you the president by you know like in ten years. What would you like to the debate. I would like to see us. If not double in size triple in size and not just in north america i would love to see. Our numbers grow in europe in asia in australia and actually become. We are an international organization. But there's no denying the right now. Our numbers are predominantly in north america. So for me. I would love to see that growth because we all know that the legislative side of the things is something that is going to continue to grow and for us to actually make a bigger impact within these. We have to you know. Let's say and i don't know the numbers off my head fully these numbers out of the air. Let's say we only have three members in poland and the legislative committee drafts a letter. Because they're trying to ban a tool and i send a letter saying that we have members all over the world three of them in poland. Do they really care about us so for me. That's it is. i would love to see us grow internationally. More which is why like the committee that glenn's on for the european members committee is so important and it's a hard working group of people that have that same vision. I liked to see a start bringing in more working dog. People we're slowly bringing in. We're slowly seeing more military working dogs coming in. And i think a part of that is gonna have to deal with. Our conferences is having speakers that are interesting to not just the pet dog world but also the working dog world or a speaker who can also talk on. Like i love sent work and there is a way to bring set work into the pet dog home. If we could get a speaker that spoke on sent work from a working perspective but then also how learning a little bit about sent work can also be brought into the pet dog world like teaching family with a beagle that all three kids are a different scent and they can run around in yard leaving their essential oils sent a hind and the dog tracks hit coming tracking when i did tracking. That was the first time. I learned that a dog can lie. I wasn't all that trailer on that track anymore. And it was the little little tells in its body language the tail dropping or that the pace slowed down. Just a little bit when the dog was lying. Wanted me to think that it was on that tracks. So even though sort of things that i learned more about dog body language and communication from the time that i did tracking bite work narcotics action. I learned more. That's helped me in the pet dog. Around so i think that if we can help some people understand that you may never want to put on a bite soup. You may never want to participate in. Psa but there's a lot you can learn about dogs just by even going and watching trials from talking to other people. So i'd like the steve bat strengthen as well good answer Like that yeah. That's what i would love to say is growing more and bringing in a lot of the sport and working people. And i think the problem. Is you know people. There's all these organizations and people are in that and it's people have limited money that they're prepared to put into paying join organizations. And i think part of our role now i say pay in those on those boards and committees is to tell people what we're actually doing in the background because they don't realize that we are actually supporting them with members or not but we're able to better support you and it's purely as you said when we say when we go to legislature and say. Hey we have these many people in your area that you're influencing and we represent when that number is a pathetic number then it's like oh we'll fuck off right but when it's when you go like hey actually you know six thousand people that have votes for you and we represent them then that that gives us some more pool so yeah. That's that would be amazing if we could bring in more working dog and sport dog people that either it's the financial aspect of it as well because there's a lot of people who want action taken like they want a member of the bay somewhere in represent but there's only so much money that's to do that on that that also means that the say pay needs to look into subsidizing people to actually go and do and be representing because your giving up a whole week of your time to guard to some of these other conferences and seminars that are on all represent all guarded court or whatever it needs to be and did this over a year ago in the paradigm where i talked about how organizations like paid upbringing fifty something million dollars every single year and i think all of the fifty four. Let's fifty four me and they spend like fifty three million dollars just in marketing. Advertising earned salaries and so forth. You know where the pay would make. Just a pittance of that. an absolute. And every dolly is scrutinized. Everything is gone. Everything is calculated so we can bring back education and conferences for members and so forth. But there's only so much money that's available in the pool that people say well. How do we increase memberships. It's gotta be through membership. Drives people have got to be more actively involved like you said before pat we still represent the papal anyway but they want more from that if they want more blood from the star and then they've got to be a contributing factor. There's no point sitting back. And saying i want more. I need more. We should be doing this and we should be doing that. And you're not a fucking limbaugh. Yeah i mean guys seriously if you listening to this and is a member and you want the eyesafe paid to do more. That's quite outrageous because you really need to be part of the solution. You are actually being part of the problem. I know it's a covid year. And i know people are tied on money and i'm i'm not pointing the barn. It people who are and have been suffering. Melanie started off talking about this. I got on the interview and you said you know. I feel really bad for saying that. You've been successful during this time. And it kinda sucks way you. Some people have been successful than they've kind of black and now can't really celebrate it. Because i feel bad for all the people that haven't done so well but there are people out there who are still doing well that still not members And for the people who aren't doing well get on board support an organization that ultimately tries its hottest is to support all of us in the balance community And tonight the reason that way both actively involved and we get up and in the middle of the all stay awake till late hours and so forth because we believe in this organization to date. It's the best one that we've actively been involved in it represents our interests represents the interests that is being the greater good and it is something that's truly trying to be international. It's trying to expand itself into all territories and all nations so we can equally represent the people in our interest in our activities on a broad spectrum. I can't think of a better organization myself today. I think it's one of those chicken or the egg things as well like a lot of people say like all what's the say doing like why would i join. It's like whoa. We kinda need you to join us to do more stuff right. So it's like if you're going to sit back and white and see. I want to say that i say do all these amazing things and then i'll join us like well. We of can't do it until you have like. We need that is a sequence of things the sequence of things has to go so why but but certainly it's not as i would doing now. There's plenty of people working hob at all volunteer basis. It would be amazing to have a fulltime person who's who eased the feis of is say pay goes to every conference and really knows their shade and can talk on behalf you know that would be that would be spectacular and hopefully that's on the on the horizon one day in the future one day. Well i think another way that people. I don't think a lot of our members know that we haven't affiliate level so that's for your clients rightly if you helped their dog and they're happy with what you're doing and they want trainers like you to be able to continue to use tools to be able to continue to be successful. We encourage our members to join the icy p at an affiliate level and they don't get votes so there's no way that people are going to influence the outcome of what happens with this organization. But that's a revenue generator for us. And it gets our name out in about within the pet population which is important right because those are the people that pita and some of the other organizations are targeting and they sort a hijacked the word humane right and because of that they can target the population with a pet owning population from an emotional standpoint. we'll be so can we. And so the more affiliate members that we get that is very helpful for the organization. And i think with hopefully next year we'll be able to roll out. Are aare dog evaluator in therapy dog handler team. Which will also bring in more knowledge from owning perspective. So i think that's a good option for growth for the organization islam. Yeah owning that education paces so hard when you're fighting against the emotionally driven well-fed topics that in my own today laugh. I mean i believe in the inner western sydney so mean like a facebook group of in a west pet dog owners right so this is dog owners and if you want to really cause a stir in there it's asking about what kind of china should i go to and people like the ethics paces really camera down people's throats right but the education paces naught and that's where i think the real strength of the pays the foundation is in education and so it's that difficult conversation having people like. Yeah it's important to love your does in it's important to treat them ethically and all those sorts of things. You're not actually doing that. Like you think you are boy spoiling rotten and but these anxiety that your dog is displaying. He's actually caused by you right. And that's the hot fucking conversation to have especially in the pet dog world like outside of trainers like just in. I'm just a group. There's like four thousand people in that facebook group right four thousand dolgarnit and maybe ten people in that group dog trainers and probably eight of the ten really force for people. So there's it's really difficult to have the conversation you say to people like yes. Ethics are one hundred percent important. You must like that is super important that the welfare of the dog is put above all else. But you're actually doing that. Because doug john three children right like there. It's a different thing. We have to treat them in a particular way and all these anxiety problem. That's the big one that i say in that group like every day is all the problems that people have are. Actually you don't realize you'll causing that right and as trying. I can see that thousand miles away. And i can diagnose that but it's not so warm and fluffy you're not gonna want to donate to me when i'm the one giving you difficult information whereas if i'm like no one hundred on just medicate that dog. It'll feel better. That's the person you want to hear from. Who can i give you money. You said the things. I wanted to hear it is incredible. Hearing people belch out such irony on such regular platforms. Probably a couple years ago. There was a colleague that i was talking to about. What norell was doing in. Regards to hood natural therapies and how she was sort of changing her landscape from being corporate science into more of a natural platform and they were saying to me. All you know. I think all of that is you know it's bit of. It's a bit of nonsense. You know like it doesn't really work and i believe in the backings of science and really sort of you know like i was quite surprised that i consider this person like on a friend level and i really sort of giving me a belt up about the fact that the rail was going into a natural profession. The remarkable thing was this same person switched to being vegan. Now all of the posts were hell of a sudden fruit and vegetables a saving that lie and they saw feeling so much better and the skin is glowing in the his grade and then niles a growing. And i'm thinking you're the same person who just finished telling me. What a piece of shadow. I am because i was talking about what my wife is now representing and yet you're on the landscape now of telling everybody how natural health cells helping you. I guess the irony that i laugh about that is i say the same people in dog circles like they talk themselves around how they need to do this and only this sort of china will help them and now offer them the salvation. They need with a dog yet. They're the same people who will go through five dogs. you know. They'll literally harm all. Suddenly the dog vanishes off the face of the earth yet. They think they're doing the right thing by dogs. Dogs shape by saying that anybody involved in balanced training is a monster and then they don't understand with doing people around the world is just incredible. I don't think they really look what they doing will sign or recommending to other people it just talking rhetoric and they regurgitating nonsense. They're hearing they. France i on the internet but i think like my example. They ya did say that. Most of the people in the group are very bet. it doesn't. it's just training. In general london is overwhelmingly most of the policies. That you save from pet dough garner's who just love their pets. Is anybody with any sort of level of training acumen if the dog training would say on an owner. That's that's not roy lung. You're doing your own thing no matter no matter what of on fourth fray balanced whatever. It's it's just that. That's i think a big function that we is trained as could be trying to give to allow clients to say like you know. Tell your friends about this. Because you've had the issue the eventually got to the point where you just couldn't cut all the problems away and we employed try no matter where they're from but now tow your friends that there's more to it than just considering that you spoiling your dog like you can't just love these problem away you need. You need to actually take steps and change to change behavior and that kind of stuff and that education pace to the average person. Because it's just we've discussed many times. I think that average person is getting further and further away from being able to manage just a normal dog like because because we leaving really different society we trade things really really different and pot of that. Is the programming of organizations. Like pay to that again to tell you that like you wouldn't yeah it's the classic they try and compare pig that you're going to eat to a baby right like that's one of the big things have paid a human baby and it's like hey that is not the same thing right like in and that programming while extreme causes a lake down to the same as well then my dog. I should trade exactly the same way as i would treat a baby and it's like well. You should treat him like a puppy because he's one is not a baby and they are different things right they come out differently and is that. There's a million evolutionary topics. We could talk about that right like this a totally different spacey's treat them differently. You can't you can't treat that good the same way trait that dog any country that dog the same way you treat that that human. It's a different process. They they have different needs. Oh anyway. that's my rent and hence why we're in the position or multifaceted problems that we're seeing around the world. Yeah yeah well. You had some other topics that you want to talk to us a bad as well in relation to sex in business and what that's like. And hey you can read mobile and restructure your business to better suit lost all our so you know me. I don't. i'm not a fan of the spotlight. So when i started getting this feeling to even ask you guys could come on. I knew right away that it was clearly something that it felt important to me. Or i wouldn't. I wouldn't have been willing to do this. Because i i like working from behind the scenes. I don't necessarily like to be the one in front of the camera in front of the mike. But you know after tyler came on and media and then birdie you know i've been there. I worked for one of the only one of the largest kennels in the united states the facility that i worked at could house close to four hundred dogs and i was the only trainer and i did it for ten years where i was running aboard and train program in. We had a day training program. And i had fifteen to twenty dogs a day by the time i finished working for them in my program and i was exhausted. I wasn't giving it my all. I mean the dogs were still getting good training. But it wasn't the best of me. I didn't even know. So my clients i names. They were just dusty. Mom on there was. I didn't have the brain capacity for it. But i didn't know of a better way big everything i was seeing and i was icy member at the time but everything i was seeing was okay. Go out on your own. Start your own facility. You know everything that requires this huge amount of head all so the more i kept looking at it. It was going to require more work than what i was doing at the kennel. Because at least at the kennel. I worked monday through friday and i went home on the weekends with eighty hours a week monday friday. But i went home on the weekends if i started my own business and had a facility. I knew in the back of my mind that there was no way to be working less and then we just got lucky as job took us to ireland and that was it like that was my a restart in i was able to get back into nature. I was hiking all the time. Jason i gue- scuba diving and then within a year. I started volunteering dublin. Spca just walked in as some nobody off. The street told them nothing about my background. When i was not a trainer. As far as i was concerned i was not a board member for the. Icp was just to scoop some shit and walks dogs. And i reconnected with dogs. Like i was able to have fun with them again because it wasn't burnt out. And you know the spca is is unique in the actives in the dublin mountains. So if you were taking a dog for a walk it was a lovely place to be walking some dogs so during our time there i was able to really think about what was important to me and why i got into dog training in the first place. I never got into it to get rich. I got into it to help some dogs. Because i had trainers that couldn't help me my dog when i was a pet owner. And so i had that time to be able to rethink in build a new business model. That no one i knew was doing. I hadn't heard it before. But i just had this feeling i could make it work. I came back. Hit the ground running. When we moved back to the united states within a month of moving back to the us my business was fully booked two months out and it has not slowed down since i started. But i'm working far less hours making more than i was when i was killing myself at the kennel and i still have time for my dogs. My husband when run-up well actually we are going scuba diving at the end of this month so finally back into water for the first time in a year and my chickens. I have time for my chickens. So it's just one of those things that i thought that if i could come on talk about my business model and how it was able to help me and my clients that it might be able to show someone that even if it's just one listener that is like you know what i'm gonna give this ago or maybe there's a listener that was like me. It was burnt out but it was sto. There was a level of comfort and security working for a facility that have been around for forty years. I didn't have to worry about bringing clients in because they were so well known and by the time you know. I've been there for ten years by the time i left so i had a reputation of my own that i didn't have to worry about marketing advertising whether the electricity was being paid ivanhoe to worry about anything. I'd just showed up to work hill myself working dogs and then went home so there was a level of security there that kept me there so maybe there is someone listening. That is like you know what i can step out on my own and in this way. I'm able to do it where. I am very little overhead. I have a van so tell us about it. What is your home school program. What does it look like. I turned our day school program that we had at a kennel right where people dropped their dog off every morning. Monday through friday picked it up every night and then on friday we had our lesson. They went home with homework. And so instead of that. If you signed your dog up for training with me it's going to be a minimum of three week program. And i come to your house five days a week monday through thursday. You don't have to be there. So people are leaving me you know. I have codes to get in their houses garage. Codes keys with rona. There's a lot more people home. But i still. I mean even then that monday through thursday. I'll say hi. And then i go off and work with the dog that gives or days a week to help teach dogwood. It's supposed to do. And i'm using in their own environment right like it's the bear house it's their neighborhoods with. It's reactive dog. I can walk the gauntlet struggle over those owner struggle with those dogs in that neighborhood. That are triggering that dog every day. I get to see those dogs in work through that and asked that hey walking with me here so it. It just became something where it was the consistency in the level of skill the clients were able to get when they were doing it a facility. Only it's in their home and the beauty of it is now. I four dogs a week versus the ten fifteen to twenty that i was doing before. So i'm in the homes longer. I'm dealing with the clients longer. And i think there's an element of it where it's in their home and they can actually see their dog doing it in that environment that has had people i have. I have a level of commitment from clients that i didn't get when i was working at kennel and again. It's monday through friday. I mean so if were talking. We'll say fifteen years as a professional and i've never worked to weekend s necessarily give. You can get it so tell us about that. So you said you only take four clients at a time you do your own marketing and everything but you probably at this point would a mouth everything i would imagine and so forth a time. You travel to their home. You've got the cage you go in you spend. How long do you spend with h. Dog and do you tell the iron is. I'm gonna be there for an hour or i'm going to try and the dog and when i'm done i'm done in that time it'll be wanted these right. Yeah so i do. I give them an idea of what time i'm going to be there. And then it depends on the dog one of the day just last week up. Sassy little ski puppy and training and the thursday. I was only in that house for half an hour. And so when i message the client. When i'm on my way and i message went on leaving with an update on how they did. I send pictures and that sort of thing and so the owner asked me. She said you know he was really naughty tonight. And i noticed you were only at the house for a half an hour. Was there any particular reason. Now is like yeah. He was done after thirty minutes. He turned into a little alligator and wanted nothing to do with training. So i know more one more time. I put him in the crate and i walked away and then we had a really good lesson like that because that was on the friday when i showed up to do our lesson and they were able to see the results so i don't ride a make it that i'm gonna be here in our because about puppy tells me economic. Do a half an hour. we're done i'm glad to hear you say that mel. Because there's a lot of people out there in the training world that they think that an element and our and if it's something that i can expressly get through to anybody is that sometimes it might be five minutes and you're done of the girls pulled dogs out of the kennels before and we might have new manages in the just taking over the resort and they might say to me. I'm concerned i saw the girls bring the dog at efi being tonight. Put the dog away. And i said those girls and i had dogs. There's a reason and a purpose behind that like you know if it was another five minutes it might be five minutes too long. It's not decided. That dog won't come again because the dog might come at it again in the afternoon but sometimes the girls will say the longest part of the session is going in there and putting equipment on the dog walking the dog to a location or they might even say. I didn't even get the dog out of the kennel. I did the training session inside the kennel for that particular time. Because anything else. And i'll say stop you don't need to justify to me. I know who you are. And i know what you're eighth offseason training and i know that for that dog anything else would have been a waste of time. It is refreshing to see that people around the world are starting to get that. Like i think one of the biggest problems and i started out exactly the same way with this. When i was a young pop in training and i was going to do lessons. I was entertaining. The fact that if you're doing lesson with somebody they booked you for an hour. It has to be a solid our dog training. I didn't realize at the time how detrimental that was to the dog and how much they were hating. The station was hiding the station and it only became apparent to me. I think the number one more time really. Summarize the lot for me. I think when you know back in the day when we really started to digest that whole dichotomy. We're looking at it. Thinking this has changed an entire platform of how we're thinking about training and it's it is nice to see other china's doing that where they decided that guy that training sessions done so. Yeah and i didn't things to try to a half an hour short for my structure. Because i do come in and walk the dog first and the dogs learning. But you know it's been in a crate sniff p potty and do its thing so i can typically stretch it out at least forty five minutes or if we do a little bit of brain games with no man's that it's learning like sits down and that sort of thing and then pause tub work working on biden ambition and that sorta thing in koa ready to do some more sits downs. Or can i incorporate the sits down on into the tug and into the fetching that we're doing so for the most part i can. I can get a good forty five minutes session by giving the dog different types of breaks but i have no problem at thirty minute. Mark noticing that. Hey you know this puppies just never gonna make it another fifteen on the training saw. I think that's something with exploring. Because he when we we say more one more time and we're talking about five minutes sessions and that kind of stuff right and think. Some people have misinterpreted that to literally main like the way we try with their dogs. Is we do another session. Were we interact with them for five minutes. It's like this is the zaydan it's over and certainly would have put like full training videos of everything i do like. The training component is usually about five minutes right. But that's just the pace of that new pace and it's one of the things especially when people watch my dog train is like if i slipped the ball to him it like we're playing tug and he let go of it and he runs off and i let him pay a leading pool like mid-session right and i let him flop on the floor and then he can sit there and that same kind of concreting things you can them like on time at any time then you can read in the dog as well like okay like you're ready to go again and in my mind that's kind of the next session like you can have multiple stations within the one session and when we say it's that no one more time it's not like you do five minutes and then that's it you put the dog up it can be you do five minutes thirty times in a row like the session. Can we derive dog. The session can go for four hours. You know what i mean. But it's not going to be known. Stop for our thing. The gets a break and so long as you're rating dogo and let the dog go. Have the downtime and chill out and that's fine. That's totally fine log on to the gym working on different body parts and to saying okay. Well i'm done with biceps now. I'm gonna move to lakes. Yeah exactly and that's the same thing happens in the same session and the things so long as you can read that in the dog would something 'cause i just got some feedback recently where people are like. Oh you guys are trying for five minutes and that's it for the day we'll do my dog the rest of the time and it's like no no no. I'll be teaching a new skill for five minutes. Yeah it's the criteria. Yeah but then. I'm going to go and mock around with the dog and a play and one of the i think one of the most powerful things you can do the job and this is what i've got done recently with. You know i've convinced people to do this. Very committed sport. Oh competitors is to walk out in the field and do one rip. Just tell you to see seat or to enter the he'll position that's it and then play with the dog for the next twenty minutes so it's like no come on down and get him to out. Just play with him. If it's a frisbee just throw it back and forth back and forth back and forth until the dogs don and like a huge amount of power that can have into the training with dogs like holy shit that was one giant reinforcer for one behavior and in the next session. They come into it like it's possible that that could happen right now. It's brand that you're gonna do that but it's to have in order for a dog to believe that something could happen. It has to have at some time happened. And so if you're going to convince the dog this could be the ultimate reinforce it's he's version of ultimate reinforcer is only version that he has had in the past. He has to have had it in some point to wanted again right anyway. We cut you off carry-on. No that was good. Because i it is. If people are gonna do this. I mean i guess you could be a house for only ten minutes drive to the other three comeback around. But that's a of petrol a lot of time in the car make versus if i can find a way to read the dry. Read the dog bill drive or also notice like okay. We've hit our capacity for your sits down your climbs your recall. Whatever it is that i'm teaching. That's a new skill. Once played for a little bit because there is a learning in play. But now i've just brought the dog back up to where like okay. Oh we ready to do this again. So it's worked really well and you know at the end of the day. The clients are seeing the results that they want in their puppy. They don't care. If i was there a half an hour forty five minutes or an hour. Their dog one on one attention and is learning a skill in incisions like that you can create the mindset you want to reinforce the behavior appropriately like you know if your if you're teaching them said no to sit down and you're going to stop reinforcing with the dog you can do a bit of that of the stott where amount and then when you go to him apply so you know to chill out on their bed you teach them that at the point where doing that is self reinforcing because they actually ask the training so instead of it being go to the place in order to earn these targets like actually chill out and really truly find that reinforcing just to be there rather than to be there in anticipation of reinforcement right now. It's it's worked out really well and i don't do any advertising. I don't. I don't have an advertising budget. It's my van glenn. Seen it has a big rap on it that you cannot miss me. Driving down the road. And i've referrals client referrals. I don't spend a dime on advertising the on paradigm al-anon that sympathy dulles. She gives us that my way of giving back to what you all are doing for the industry. Hey so four at a time right and so you're only trying four dogs a day five days a week and so you say on the friday is where you expect at the owners of the air. And you're doing a session with them doing it a year. I guess catching up on what you've been doing. The last four days right correct in that one. I schedule ninety minutes to two hours. Sometimes it only lasts an hour break because when the dog dictates that the people. If i'm just i don't want to overwhelm them with information. Which is part of the reason why it's a three week program. It's broken down so that they're slowly learning what the dog is learning. And sometimes i have clients that only hat handle in our session. And then i have others. That were pushing the two hour mark. And i'm like okay. I actually really do need to go his house. But it's it's one of those things to is only working four dogs a week. And when i first started the program i was working five and i quickly realized that between drive times and each individual dog and giving myself a slight break in between each dog. That five was just too much for me. It might be okay for others but me. I was just flashed by back down to four. And that's been a good balance and let's say it is a full two hours each one of those people's houses and counting in drivetime time at still only innate out an eight hour day so to give you an idea of what tomorrow aleve. My house between nine and nine thirty and i will do my grocery shop. Nba by three thirty or four o'clock given me now it. I'm still doing phone calls and emails in the morning. But it's given me time to also work on icy p in the mornings in the evenings. I no longer feel guilty. Like it. Find jason i have been we. Just binge watched the first season of the undoing. And i don't feel bad about it. Because i'm working really hard on bringing in a good income if i want to sit there and binge watch his show on hbo. I'm going to into waukesha that's important. Hey so tell us about some of the challenges you might face in this right so someone tells you they email you. What does your own boarding look like. What's the first interaction with the person. And then all up to that on the next part of that question if you including the answer is do struggle to convince people who don't know you other than than a referral from someone to get access to your house right because it's your going into their home when they're not there's probably some stuff around that and also trusting you with a dog in their home a lot of trust you're asking from people. So how do you manage that harder. It helps that. I've been in this area for fifteen years so i'm have a name and a reputation that goes with that and i've not given anybody a reason to not trust me going into their homes. I will say that. I don't feel with human aggression. I don't think me walking in without a human out there owner around not on. I'm just not gonna do. It doesn't that part doesn't quite fit. I will work with some stranger danger. We're going to call it that. In that case i do do a meet and greet i because i want to see like is the owner actually describing the behavior accurately where my walking into a house with cujo. If i'm walking into a house cujo get referred out. Because it's just not part of it is i don't wanna spend the energy on it and i know that might sound selfish but i would rather help. Abe's set them up for success. I like working with fearful dog. So i'd rather work with that. I'm being very choosy. As to where i spend my energy and so aggression like. That isn't where. I wanna put my energy but most of the time now pre rona a lotta times. The first time i met the people was their first friday lesson. They left the key under the mat. Or they like okay. Here's your garage code the dogs in the crate or door on the left and i didn't meet the owner until friday. Now there's more and it's still happens now but most of the time like right now. A lot of people are working from home. So they're they're that first monday to sort of show me around or i will have people that want to be there. The first day that will take off a work or asked me to plan that around their lunch break to come so that they can be there the first day but for the most part given reputation as i have people giving me keys and codes dinner house without ever meeting. Now that might not work for everybody. You know if your brand new in an area you may need to build a reputation of appalachia or half to do. I could see needing to squeeze in evaluations or meet and greets ahead of time. So that people help you know. Got a feel for you. But i'm lucky to where i don't have to do that. And then next question is process point. So i get that every way around the world. Dog training has a different value right so we can't really we kind of compare apples to oranges. Just bought the the exact same service you're providing in your city would be worth something else in a different city ri- more or less. It's quite different everywhere. It's really a cost of living. I think he's how we set up the running expenses. But how do you compare then to a board and like you the same process what you would expect someone if that will going to the facility that you're looking at the similar of thing and then you don't have the head so you make much more money or you charging this i'm charging about the same well depends on which bordering. There's a lot of trainers in this area. So i'm charging about the same as song but than others in part of it is one. I don't have the overhead. So i m. There's more revenue leftover for me to take but it's also looking back at why i chose this business model was i wanted to get back to the passionate side of it of helping that i didn't. I'm not cheap. But i could easily double my prices. I don't want it to be that only wealthy or posh people can afford good dog training. I wanna be available that you know what you may have to put me on your credit card. But it's not such an ouch. You're not willing to do it. So announce me way guy. Just it's just erode. I took when i developed how much i was going to honestly the way i chose my prices. I said i wanna make. I want to bring in x. Number of dollars a year is scheduled myself five weeks of vacation and then four dogs a week. What do i have to charge to make that. That's how i came bryce perfect. I just want to backtrack on something melanie that you were talking about before where you're talking about not feeling guilty for being out of binge. Watch things on netflix. And so forth. If you wanted to do that. I have a lot of conversations with a lot of china's about similar sort of subjects like talked a lot of indie tiff students. I talk to people who listen to the show like. They asked me things about this because they know of my extensive working with the dog market and so forth. Some of messiah to me you got into it. But i just feel like i'm working around the clock all the time like all my weekends are taking in order to make things mate and sometimes i try and help them the same way that we're having this conversation. Now where i'm trying to help them restructure they lost in the business in just having a bit of a think about how they can do things differently and not feel like they're either so obsessed also locked into something where they can't access other portions of they live like important family time vacation time and just other interests that they have in their life. Because for me. I just don't want to have that single minded obsession. We're all i'm doing is just locked in the dogs. I did that once. I just didn't find that. It was a very beneficial side ultimately at in a holistic manner. It didn't really work at well. At the time. I thought it data. I really thought that was the most important thing in my life to bay locked into dogs to be involved in like i had to be the best. I wanted to know everything. I wanted to be around anybody who was doing anything differently. I just wanted to suck the marrow at the barnes. And i regret some of the things i did. You know it was beneficial but it also in some expects it made me unhealthy. I mean i'm older now. And you know things have changed on a different aspect in my life. But i i do talk to people they are finding they reaching brunette point very quickly like they don't understand it and they saying i thought i enjoyed it but i don't know if i do and i said no i think he can't enjoy it and i think you can find that you can leave the best of both worlds. We can still give everything to your client. Still enjoy the time with the dog. Still enjoy time with your dog and feed a life in between all that without feeling like it's twenty four seven around the clock. Fortunately i have been out to help people do that. I mean i don't leave by those words so much now especially when we had run a popping ruined everything for us and we had every single in place in that we could possibly do throughout the year. But we're changing that. For next year differently you know like even kinda my to. I say that helps me a lot. She said to me. Can we please not do these next year. Because it was just turn out just said oh absolutely. I just didn't expect that things would pick back up again in the boarding sector. I thought we were going to have a really desperate year. Which is why i thought. This'll be al celebration if we can if we can keep the student training going and so forth but i do understand that when i say. Other people -struction life in such a way only entrapped themselves or painted themselves in a corner that they really need to muddle something differently so they can get back to the enjoyment of it because then they give a much better service to themselves the client and the dog right well. It's this is one of those professions where it is so easy for it to become every aspect of your life because you're training clients dogs than your training your dogs than you get obsessed with a sport and you're doing the sport and then oh we're gonna to go to the brewery and the burri allows dogs we're gonna take our dog laid. It doesn't take much for all of a sudden debris that there's not a moment of your life that doesn't have a dog in it and it took me needing to find other hobbies league scuba diving. May that's been not only to scuba gear in a world of your own ear. It's just remarkable and it gives you time to think it makes you focus on your breathing. All those types of things meditation does do for you but for me it was also a reconnection with nature. I've always been a nature freak. Since i was a little kid bringing home bunnies and squirrels and raccoons and all sorts of things. And i lost that right. Because i became obsessed with dogs for awhile and by being able to re connect back with nature in that side of things and not always have a dog with me. There's times i take walks through my woods here. And i don't take a single one of my dogs so i just go by myself and i think maybe that's why like birdies doing right now with this new program. She's rolling out his really spoken to me because it is about nature and i think a lot of us get into training because dogs are our connection to nature. It's just one part of it that we can bring into our house every day. But i like the idea of dogs not being the only connection to nature that we have and i think we each you know. It's not going to be the same for everybody but it's become very important to me a way to enjoy life without docs been thinking the whole time in talking then about what you do that home school program versus borden trying and i think it's pretty common. Do don't aren't working to big facility dude. Small scou- board and try and three four dogs in their home. All the time it over and that can be really fun and you can make a lot of money doing that because same to you know overheads. You can legally do that from your home. You know easy to do. But i feel like there's a component that sometimes missing to that and it's why when i've done that like i don't take dogs into my home unless there's a specific problem to fix and it's usually you know like for me. It's usually working dogs. That need something to them. But i feel like a component of why the training that i do is successful is the way that i leave with the dog. Also and my dogs aren't just in a kennel right. Like a part of the family and they're in the kennel sometimes there in the box sometimes but they pot of like chili out on the catch and the part of it and so they needs for that connection is met in one way and then they made needs for drivers met in another right and i think sometimes the in-home and and wall while it's got loads and loads of advantages is that it's kind of impossible for you to give them that need that they have off just paying your dog and just being sort of the the non training time because if you got four dogs in your home plus your arm one or two or whatever. The border does come out. They do their work. And then they really under that your management system because you're teaching them how to leave in your home so usually we're not travel around the same people that do these kinds of stuff. They'll have three dogs like that in a house. If they're not in christ's there. At least tethered and they're in different places and yeah they're being a pot of the the you can tell. The dog has the feeling of like. I'm not in this family. I am a guest here. And i'm learning how to leave and that's fine. It's not like it's a problem but is true issues with it. I think his first as the trainer. You get zero downtime right like because then you are at work. Twenty four seven. They ease if the dog the second. And that's what. I find stressful about bringing dogs into my home not stressful. But it's a it's always in the back of my mind is now i am at work. Twenty four seven day. You're responsible for that dog. Twenty four hours. There is absolutely so long as that dog is we've made. I'm working twenty four seven and and you know charge a lot for people to wants me to take the dog. I charge a lot conceded that like your basically hiring my alley right for twenty four hours because it is a lot of work for me because the reason you want me to have that doggies because you wanna to similar to mine. And my dog the way he is because i trade him holistically. It's not the five minutes a day that tune into that. It's the whole pizza and to provide that. Your i can really. That's a lot of work for me. And i can only do that. Very limited numbers. I think what you do allows the people to do that right so the dog gets to just be dog all night and you just come in and provide like hey. He's a training and teaching staff. And teach the people how to connect with the dog and blah blah blah. But he probably still if so inclined probably still gets the chew on the catch with them at nah and he's still gets he's like special cottle's from them and and he's needs for that is met by them. And that means you get to binge watch netflix night. And and they can do that with the dog on the cat and you get to do it with your dogs on the catch and they get to do it with their dog on the catch in the next day. Work hours here i am. I'm gonna do the training to give you the skills that you need but your needs that you have to be fulfilled for connection and relationship and that sort of stuff continues with the person you probably end up with a better product. So long as the people aren't doing dumb shit when you day which i guess is part of your education pace while in. It's it's a lot harder for clients to tell you half truths when you're in that house every day. If i let the dog out of the crate he runs and jumps on the sofa. But he's not allowed on the sofa. i'm not gonna buy it or if something as simple as sometimes it depends on creating anxiety issues. I walk into the house in all. It takes me to see okay. We'll that creates shouldn't be where it's at for x. y. or z. reasons. Let's move it over here and all of a sudden creating zayed's salt rank. It was simply a location issue. I have found that the clients are being way more honest that you know if i have them doing hand feeding for a certain reason that i can tell i went away for the weekend and that dog was giving perfect eye. Contact for hand-feeding. Doing its puppy pushups without any hand signals. And i come back. And it's almost like restarting over on monday. You didn't practice. I find that people are being held more accountable like they're more willing to do the work in it might be because it's in their home because i can tell you right now. My friday lessons are so much easier than they ever used to be. When i was at the kennel is trying to balance. How do you fit in ten to twenty lessons every week with the clients before they take home for the weekend but it was also all of a sudden. Why can't get off work until five the soonest. I can be there as seven o'clock so my fridays were seven. Am to seven pm. sometimes apia whereas now. When i'm in their home on a friday all of a sudden they can take a half day and they'd love to have a lunchtime meeting with me and then have arrested their day off so they become so much more flexible because i'm in their house so even on a friday. It's i think in three years with this business. I've maybe gotten home six whites if people don't want me in their house at six o'clock at night on the day evening they want me out so they can have dinner in start drinking and having their weekend so it's it's also made my friday aurora and so one of the things you said was you have to throw away program. What would be a trigger for you to make that a long program. What would cause that you know. I've actually never made it longer right off the bat when i have done is if i see something isn't quite getting where i want it to be whether it's in week one week two were rounding week three from very honest with the clients. But i tell one the way on booked out. I don't have room to take you on for a fourth week but then it's also too. Is i find it important for there to be a break then and i can say okay. Let's take some time. I want you to keep practicing. They still have access to me through text message on calls and emails. But let's find the grio weaknesses like let's remove me from the picture you all keep practicing. And is it simply. Because the dog is getting the level of consistency. It needs from me and you all aren't able to reach fat so the dogs giving you a harder time for it. Then that means. I need to spend more time with the human not necessarily more time with the dog or is it just. It may be that three weeks. We've hit what that dog is capable of doing in that timeframe and the everybody in the house needs a break at that point keyboard on what we worked on giving a month maybe two depending on how far out on book and then we can come back for more training. I also have a high percentage of my dogs that come through his puppies. Then come back. After six months of age do e caller awfully straining quite a few of my dogs will end up most of them. They've done poppy. Training quite a few of them will come back and ended up doing another two or three weeks for collar train. That's cool from business. Effective you get to sort of tap toss and i get to know the people that even if they wanted off leash if they can't follow through with the basics they've already proven to me that i don't wanna put an e. collar near perfect house needle. Really get to know them so i can be picky. Don't look if they go down the road and they go to somebody else willing to do it and goes against my recommendation that i can't stop them from that but if i don't think they can handle the responsibility in use the tool properly. They're not getting it from me. Yeah keeps your conscience clear. That's that's awesome. There was something that didn't bay. Jj wall ago. That really work me up. I love all these little things that you pick up along the way in different disciplines that you sort of make your way through life and somebody wants it to me. When i was rolling with somebody on the ground. And i got up and i was just exhausted like my heart. Rate was pounding headache from hell. Honda was trying and how much effort i putting. It wasn't the black belt is just one of the guys who was sitting on on the side and went up and against the wall and he said might. Can i give you a bit at voices at your and he goes. Don't use any more energy on your apartment than they using on your. And i thought holy shit you know that was one of those really lightning moments ball really went on my head and it was an interesting concept because i had to find that out when i was doing private lessons in high which. I don't do a lot of these days. But i was doing in contact with people and i thought why am i giving people far more effort than what they need or that they will use again. It was something that i thought. I needed to do with something that was sitting well with my ego. At the time. I kept thinking i'll have to do more have to give them so much and i have to tell them you need to do this and you have to do this. But that was turning. Away is losing more clients and i was gaining because they were feeling guilty that they would never measure up to what i wanted them to do and again. That was part of my obsession at the time like i kept thinking nine on. Are you have to do this. You have to be on this. And i don't wanna see any less than this when i come back for the listen next week now. Mom and dad smith. They don't want any of that they just want a dog that's going to do. The elementary workforce them comeback stained position. Sit down do a couple of of the things. They want the dog to do that. Well and really nothing else. And i would try and suggest things after period of time. I'd say okay. I understand what you want of actually setback. And i've listened to you rather than just talking to you. you know. That's my difference for anyone's listening. Just talking at people and actually sitting back opening your ears and listening to what people want and what they really need. And once. I found that i found that i wasn't scaring clients. Awhile is actually getting more attraction from clients. I people were saying you know he's listening and he's getting results and he's doing this and that because the things that were important to them yeah sure. They weren't important to me but that she business model. And that's what you really need to sit down and focus on. And i think it's you know trainers developing a level of flexibility. Is that i. Let's say for my own personal dog for mongo. If i tell him. I wanna sit if i tell him down. I wanna down. And i don't want him to pop into a sit from his down. And i don't want him to go from his sit to it down but my pet clients could care less so i'm not going to make. I can't tell them to be that strict because then they're gonna feel like they failed so if for them it's you're out walking fluffy and you stopped to say hi to a neighbor and you Fluffy sit in the conversation drags on and she lays down. I'm perfectly fine with that. If you are is at least she's just being polite and not jumping on your neighbor in that sort of thing in once i became more flexible without with my clients i get a higher rate of compliance from them. Where something as simple as a climbed command other trainers. Call it a place command or whatever. I will change my word to suit my client so if you had no history before you've never trained your own pet dog before you've never known what a place command is and i come into your house than we're using climb because you don't have a word that you've previously us but if you've taught place to your last three pet dogs which one is at client going to be more consistent with if i teach their dog place with just the same rules that might climb has or are they gonna keep telling dog place. I mean climb and putting it up so for me. There's times where they're like. Oh what can we use this word instead. Sure say tomato for all. I care as long as you're consistent with it. You know it was funny listening. T- talking pet that. I was doing a concert. Not long ago the lady from pasadena zooming with her and i was showing her in the backyard and i was doing some things with him and she just kept saying honey honey. That's lovely it's beautiful. I'm really appreciating. And she goes all. I want my dog not to be an asshole and i decided okay and a game. You know like. I was thinking. Oh this is may projecting. What i think is important but she said i'll never do half of the stuff that you shine me with dog like it's not important to me. I thought sure. And i thought maybe. I just need to sit down in a chair and listen to you and i said okay. Show me dog and chummy we doing. And what's important to you. And she went through it and we just went through some tool three basic life skills and she's happy now you know we did three lessons. That was it if she's getting what she needs to do. It and i said well. There's some good china's in your area. I can send you to if you if you want to do a face to face with somebody and you know. Sit down when rhona starts to subside. A little bit and that was issue was that corona virus was subjecting her to a lifestyle. But she's getting what you want chebbi personally. That's one of the things. I love about the position. I'm in currently with all my clients that it's sort of on the go is. I'm usually the one being laxed too much. Like to slow down. Though he's he's only he's only six months old. He's not ready for these. Or whatever like i. i'm so blessed to be in that position rather than like when i was dealing with people all the time and it was like same deal. You just can say. They haven't done any of the work that you've been telling him and they've got all these excuses and excuses that go out on the dog just a small part of that life. There's i love dealing with the people who Like no this is the world champion dog. And i'm doing. I get pull the reins back and be like whoa slowdown. Like let's do this and it's total opposite and it's so much more fulfilling when you have the really super motivated clients choose. You eat sort of ended up working the people you ended up. And it's been fantastic for me when i think that's a good point there to lakers that you found what you like in how you're training which fits a niche right versus in. That's part of being happy and not getting burnt out a single Would do i want for the clients that i work with only got. There is a really good trainer here that i recommend for aggression cases that god love her. That's what that's what she wants to do. And i don't so it's making her happy to be able to work with the rest of dogs so i think that's where it comes to that we don't have to take on every single case when you get to a certain point it's good to be able to be choosy. Yeah the only thing to speak really honestly about the work that i do with people and most of my clients. It's how they end up paying. Clients is the one thing. I miss about dealing mostly in sport and working dogs at the moment. Ease audit really get to handle the dogs because the people on like pet dog training. When i was doing a lotta that i was trying to load of the dogs right because that's how it is you're there to be does china and you can try to do the things and then you do. The handover with the people and i really enjoy training dogs. It's but now. It's very rare. That i have a do the train to go because when people it's a working dog or dog dogo whatever i like. They are the one that wants to compete with and may taking over and being like no no no do like this is seldom helpful. They actually is usually correct the problem doing that. And so that's the one aspect of what i do. That i dislike is that i am seldom the handler of the dog. And especially as a decoy catching blocks with someone and you can see him sort of doing stuff. And you're like no no no do this and they like shut up employing you to catch the ball hits you work grip you know but there's this other issue that's not my issue like no it is. I'm telling you it is like and especially when it's something. I know i could fix really quickly or change really quickly. And that's the only frustration vice in my car. is that all. I'm not the hands on china so much. I'm teaching other people. But i mean i still love it. It's still gripe. But that's what i miss about. Training pet dogs is actually getting apply with the dog. More and being like who. I you had a woman nippy late you how do i how do i reinforce you whereas now it's kind of like they tell me and i'm like oh yeah turn this way got it tweet hearing you talking about that. That's one of the fundings that we get to do on the atf. Is only this week. The loss group that we just finished with the year we were training with some dogs and one of the clients are one of the students said. Do you think that this is a problem that we're doing these behaviors and i said this is far more than the arneses of dogs will ever do like this is all us work for them and and who cares said. There's no harm. No foul said. These dogs are getting to live their best life with us and then they go home in live their best life with this dog just really dreams of being a couch potato. Because that's spain. Raised as and i say doing all they shaping in china skills with the dog which it will probably never use again like we tell the clients what they doing and we take pictures and videos and increasing them. We'll send them a bunch of stuff saying you know this is what glenn and the students will. We did with the dog. And i'll go. That is so cool. I'm never gonna use it and we just think but it doesn't matter right because if i'm curious about something i can go down now walk into the cadillac and pull ten dogs at right now and i can play with people's dogs. They don't k- i can go out and take them in the shades and do things and often. I'm curious about it. I'll go do it. You know i like i'll think well i can't do that with my dog because that'll cause a problem in the behavior that i'm trying or doesn't have the constitution of do it so i walked down the line. I'll go you you and you. And i'll take the dog out in the shed and i'll play with him. I'll think okay cool now. I know what i need to take on the calls next week and now i know what viable in certain criteria of some dogs. And i'm going to do with. And i have the luxury to be able to do that. And that's really it is. It's good fun to be able to do that because there's times where. I just think i can't do that with randy. Because it's going to ruin these over. It's going to cause a problem with this or pixels not capable and ladybugs broken up. I've got all these little issues. They're not compatible with what i want to do. But i've got between sixty two hundred dollars. So best the world really. That's what i think's thinking about. Sometimes i have these conversations with pay with phd's and and they really know this shit. It's very technical. And it's very you know like they obviously go to pay each day in behavioral science right but what they don't have is the laboratory that also china's have yup. We can just be like almost going to do this and see what happens and they never do that because to do an a real experiment as old as control mechanism blah blah blah and. That's hey get real data that you can disseminate using yourself where it's just anecdotal stuff. You can just be like. I'm gonna try this way and see what happens and halfway through you can go. I'm never doing this again or you can go. This is the best thing ever every dogs. Getting a component from here. And you get to experiment way. More than any theorist evidence and especially as you say with you here. You've got two hundred dogs every day. You can go and choose from to do it. it's a it's a lot of fun but again. A lot of work in the meantime i don't want people to listen to this and distinct. That's all. I do all the time because they some wakes don't get to do that at all like i don't even get to see a dog. I'm just doing business stuff. But when i do get to do it like when i'm thinking about things that i've got to do the for i want to refresh myself in something. It is quite refreshing to diversify and think cool. I've got any dog down there. And none of the clients a worried if i get the dogs at like for them. It's an absolute bonus. Dog get extra stimulation time and taken in the shed. And i'm not doing anything untoward dog. Anyway you know like it's beneficial. And it's mostly ply in shaping sorta games that i'm doing with them but i just get to do stuff i'm by myself and there's no interruptions is no fun. Calls is nobody asking me questions or stopping me midway deci. Why are you doing this. Why are you doing that one. What's that for what is for it. Just may the dog and silence. I don even take my phone in their half the time because i think i just want to concentrate on this and then that's it. I'd put the dog back in the kennel. I think That worked all that was terrible. And as i'm not going to go back to that again all. That's what i'm going to take next week. We're going to talk about this. Because i've got to take three dogs at now. Work really successfully for three dogs is an aspect of the kennel. I will say that is an aspect of the kennel. That i do miss having that many dogs around is the amount of i mean. We ran a huge daycare right where there was at any given time six groups of two to twenty dogs laying separately. So you get to learn a lot about body language and just like the dogs that someone would say was aggressive but you could walk by and be like nice cage brave. Open the door. You'll be front wheel behind so you do miss that. I don't have my hands on as many dogs. But i wouldn't go back not now so i think as we've covered throughout the aaron half that your model there is a lot less work a lot higher quality and your way more sustainable. You'd be out of do this for the rest of your life right. You know putting yourself out. You have a great work life ratio and it's hardly like you'll it's not complex right. This is pretty easy. Sort of thing that you're doing here in like in explaining it. It's not like they had some huge back in system. People have to put into place before they can. Just start doing this as we discussed the audio was you wanted to share that with everybody and say like hey you you don't have to. You don't need to be breaking your back every day. This is a system works for you. People can replicate it right and let's face it like dog. Training is a physical job. So there was no way i was going to be able to maintain the level of dogs that i was working at in my forties and fifties and sixties that it just physically would not have been possible but mentally. There was no way. My mental health could withstood that for much longer. And then it's the home school programs one of those that it may not work for everybody but it can also be tweak like i've talked to so many people about the program that you know some now are only doing it three days a week some are doing it for two of the dogs that they work with and then sticking to pry lessons for everything else so it's not the end all be all by any it works really really well for me but it's also something that can easily be tweet to suit different people their lifestyles than their wants and needs. Yeah i think part of a funding in a job. And this is something that i've had to realize myself is when you get to a spoilt position to be diversified between the things that you have to do but also the things that you want to do as like for example. Something that's started happening more recently. Which was interesting. Is people around the world starting to contact me about kennel design. You know like how do you do this and and staff training and so forth like even people have said to me like when all this coronavirus starts to slow down. Could we get you over to stoffel. Do this all walk through a can design with me or something like that. And i thought what are they asking me this for now. I'm realizing because i'm the gm group of companies who runs major boarding kennels and i'd try and staff and do all this stuff bottom job. I'm thinking i never thought of this as a part of an aspect of something else you can do that. Takes you into different areas. So sometimes people. I've spoken to. They locked into a portion of their life. But you can as you said you can tweak things you can diversify. Don't have to look at it from just one trajectory and that's it i'm stock again. I've got out of a job where i painted myself into a corner only to be in another job of painted myself into a corner. It's good that you can look at things and think luck with the things that he's enjoying doing and you know he's still gets tom to be a dad to reap any also gets time to work with a lot of paper with complex sporting cases. And you know like high level energy type dogs. And he's really enjoying that and really flourishing from that. And you know it's nice to see it's nice to say that people are still using passionate like i've got things that they can give to people and they so enthusiastic about that and it's important to remember for everybody when you're doing your job like you've been talking about aspects of of burnett and all the experienced that before where i just wanted to run away from all of it because i thought i don't want to like there was career jobs that had nothing to with dogs. When are getting out of school. And i thought you know this sounds like an interesting job enough thought it and then i got into dogs and i absolutely love dogs but still things in the dog industry. That if you're not careful it'll crush the heart and your chest. You'll invest so much into it and eight. You will find yourself painted into a corner and it's very important to step back every now and then i think a need to have a life that's productive around dogs and again you mentioned it well and truly before and we have on the show before is important to people like bertie that she can come in every now and then and remind you slow down smell the roses you know. Get back tonight. You remember that you know like you are spiritual person as well need donate to stop and take a little rushed yourself and again the san coney remember yourself nine one more time you've got to say to yourself. I'm hitting rock bottom at the moment. Because i'm pushing myself too far too soon. I really do need to have a little break from comeback fresh so i can give all of myself not just a really shitty version myself to the people who will pay me good money to do it and get some important fat. You know it's been important for me to listen to my own advice and also the advice of other people who you know sages in those sorts of fields as well being able to realize that if we're not at our best selves we're not going to be able to help people as much as we want to and we owe it to the dogs and the clients that we're working with to try to be our best selves and so and sometimes that means taking a break and walking away or cutting back hours or finding another passion. That isn't dog. could've fuskus hey. Mel erupted hackel. People getting contact with you. There's a few layers of why they would want to do that right. So maybe people in ashland. Virginia want some lady to come in the house and try to their dog. Maybe people wanna talk. I say pay. Or maybe they're member of the ice and they wanna just just tell the press how it is. I can people get in contact with you. What's your info thirty. Icp it's anything icp related. There is a link to my email address through the website in i'm professionals dot com which is a lot easier than saying my email addresses. Melanie dot ben wear at canine. Professionals dot com. And if i'm not the person they need to talk to. If it's something to do with legislative or european members committee i will send them to the director oversight of that area. But i'm more than willing to talk to people even if you're not a member and you just have questions. I'm always happy to talk about the icpd people if you're looking for if you want to reach out more about the home school program. My email address is melanie. Dot men wear kindred canine solutions dot com and so in my website and my business or all drinking nine solution perfect and one last time. Let's plug is pay itself. If you're listening to us plays plays you should be a member of professional or affiliate. We really want to grow that organization for the strength of the organization. There's no getting rich off of it. Everybody is working hot in the background. And we really want to support the industry but the trainers and. I think it's important for everybody to remember that. The cornerstone of i say pays education not the fighting organization. It's education that's the main key to life dog owners in dogs yes across the globe. Yes right that's well. Thanks for making the time. thanks for doing it. Thanks for just laying out your business model forever under copy be to do it. If it means that helps more dog trainers trainers be able to stay in the industry longer and help more dogs. I'm all for it sounds good. Hey that's it for another upset of the coun- paradigm as always if you like. What he plays likes share subscribe. Do that through whatever subscription service you downloaded from bay specific. Tell us about how the homeschool program is going for you if you want us to show the best way to do that. He's patriot own few bucks a month. Get you extra episode in and it's christmas so if you want to buy a christmas present patriots that's true. If you wanna buy a christmas president feel free to do that. He can support us very patriotic. Don't hold back. Yes the other thing you could do is buy ridiculous wall tapestry. Ridiculous why throw rug. Do we do very rugs all bendinha or we're going to. We're gonna add all right so you do those things if you want to know why you would if you were to support the show. You could definitely do that then. We may melanie smiling. What she got she went. She bent down to pick something up. And she's got. Do you have a wall tapestry. No i have not had wall tapestries. Do we make moral of the wo- tapestry that what's the al qaeda a streak. I have to look to be honest. Maybe we should really start dropping pay. He's gonna get one though. Frail shed out there so we can have maybe even one for the backdrop behind us. It's not remain here. Well when people doing scott and zoom with us they get to see this lovely hand painted picture of chaos that my friend david oakley did yes. It's a lovely painting to it's a dog. I braid when i was breeding rottweilers. This is chaos posts photo. Now all right. So i get sofa wall tapestry if you want dog training voice. Best way to do that is in the group. Feel free to join the cana paradigm discussion group on facebook. there's plenty of conversations going on in their. Don't be scared of using the search function and saying if your questions already been asked a bunch of times. All i did something similar to that in a non dog related group and a found. The answer can't believe that. I didn't have to ask the question that i wanted to ask. And then get what he knew. Soon did search. And i found the answer. That was amazing. Miss this joy to watch someone else. Get berated this stupid question. It's not always fun. Yeah from my phone. From eight months ago. Where i was gonna ask a stupid question and i was like someone else's stupid question so don't be afraid to do that. And if you would like to get in contact with us you can do that. We are info at the kennedy paradigm dot com. That's it goodbye.

ashland virginia north america glenn cook pat steward mac lapointe mel benway international association of n Jason furman michalak Melanie benway melanie pat stewart Glenn cook tuten jeff star piano melanie benway maria diaper tyler muto european members committee glenn
Episode 154: Misia Bielickis introspection

The Canine Paradigm

1:37:00 hr | 5 months ago

Episode 154: Misia Bielickis introspection

"What's happening in the canine industry for all the latest news. Views and expert opinions. Stay right here for the canine paradigm. You'll hear from industry leaders. Experts doyennes of the industry learn colleagues movers and shakers and the odd randy guest get the latest insights and expert advice from both here and abroad from the people in the nov. Now here your hosts glenn cook and pat steward am lofty fulton. And i'm outta here. You know what it's a new month is yeah. it is and i'm thinking to myself that we should probably have something like a month. cold support. S voters support support support l. supporters. We've got some people who support show. Yeah and i want to show them some love okay. Yeah so we've got someone who is regularly supporting our show. Who's the industry fayed. Himself jackson feminine from victocrat on zwick. Quip yeah i know. You're a fan of jason's equipment. You know what these ideas in my head Let's go with jason of god. They saw idea for a tug. I want it to be this big and this round and made a leather. Yup you got one and he goes. No that doesn't exist. You idiot but i can get up made do. It's a. he's pretty good like that. The disney yeah. We should get spring the fan these spring merge might. I support the book the book. Yeah but we've got people in other parts of the world notable fit. Tell me makhala point. My point is french for mark for not a buffet. Inaudible fed and he is from cannot anemic namic nemecs in canadia. Please don't slow this down so forward north america. That's where i'd be getting my yeah working with from. He's got a great array of gear. As well douse yeah. And he's a very generous guy. Yeah you know who else is a supporter of the show that would have to be kindred on no benway at good friend mel benway. She has got to be one of the best travel to your home train. The dog in your home dog training slightly in the area that she's in which virginia or ashland virginia ashland virginia but she services all the area around the she's a pain a great support for the show and also a great support for the international association of kline professionals are. We are proud members of as well absolutely. Yeah so if you're in. Austria a need dog commitment Jason furman here with grinds wake for north america. Working don't quit. -ment michael appoint cannot and if we're in ashland. Virginia richmond virginia up in that general area. And you need pet dog training. Melanie bay melanie. Benway kindred keen on kinder-. Yeah welcome back to the cannon paradigm. I'm your host pat stewart joining studio by my co-host glenn kook and joining us. All the way from austin texas. Everybody calm down. Joe rogan. god damnit. It's me shia. Lucky kaletsky blackie for effort. Yeah i tried. I even rehearsed at everything. I think you got into your own head. I think you're too much sugar probably. Hey michelle how're you doing. Fantastic thanks for having me on the show. You guys feel welcome. We miss you demanding to be on to be clear. I did not demand anything. I just politely ask you. Yeah hey who are you tell us why not like what we're gonna talk about but give us the rundown what's going who who who. Who the fuck am i well. My name's asia for coming to ted talk. You like background stories right so i'll take it from the top. Once upon a time there was a girl who thought she wanted to go to business school because it was a sensible career right as recession proof as my parents always taught me. My parents are engineers so very practical people. So i went to college and i got an accounting degree because i felt like sales felt yucky and marketing was like just kind of vague and entrepreneurship was the point of taking entrepreneurship classes. If you're not an entrepreneur and don't have ideas you know so. I did accounting because finance made me want to throw up and i discovered after working in it for a couple of years that i fucking hated it hated every second of it I was in public accounting. Which is essentially like. You're either auditing companies or you're doing taxes for companies or really wealthy individuals or nonprofits that sort of thing and even though everybody toby you have the personality for audit. I was like fuck you guys. You can't tell me what to do. I'm goin' tax and so i did taxes and Like i said discovered. I hated it and when i moved to austin just kind of wanted a big change overall. I grew up in houston went to school there all that stuff and whenever i was looking for jobs i was like i knew i wanted something more creative My husband was teaching me how to do photoshop. And all these other skills. And i just didn't at the end of the day after a couple internships was still sitting at a desk typing up. Pr's or editing and editing and editing editing visually and just it gave me migraines. It was awful so in the meantime while i was still looking for jobs and like applying to be like museum curators which i had zero and i was like a personal assistant to a guy who did real estate in austin. I got fired after two days. Because to be perfectly honest i sucked but also his criteria kept changing. He would tell me how to do something. And then it would change. And i was like subdued dude. You can't move the goalposts like that. I cried like a baby. Of course because it's the first time i've ever got fired. I had always quit all my jobs. Up until that point or their internships that ended. I was like you know. I always wanted to work with dogs. I always begged my family to have dogs and they were like how about a cat. You know and i was just kind of jealous of those people that grew up with dogs. So i decided austin pets alive is a really huge shelter. It's it's kind of world renowned it still one of the largest no kill cities in the united states and I fell in love. I you could not get me to leave that place. It smelled like shit. The dogs were stressed out. But i just. I was very very drawn to the terrified dogs and then i wanted to know more about how i could get into the kennels of the reactive dogs and how i could get into the kennels with the locks on them that had to have special permission for the behavior team and hey what did you say how started derail you but did you say that austin is a no kill city. Yes that's mandated. That's just not like all the shelters nokia shelters. And that's a choice. 'cause they private or whatever like that's mandated by the cd. You cannot dog. that doesn't have an owner. is that the case. I don't remember exactly how you get to know. Kill status. Because i've been kind of out of the loop for a while. But essentially it's based on a live outcome rate from the shelters. So from this it's not necessarily shitty mandated it's effectively. The city shelter still operates as normal if a dog stays there past whatever their period is than either but rescue groups read specific organizations. Like austin pets live comes in scoops up the dogs on death row if they don't get adopted and so as you can imagine that means austin pets alive gets a lot of really severe medical news and a lot of really severe behavior cases and fortunately a lot has changed but essentially really what no kill means is alive outcome rate of like ninety two percent as i think the floor for it but i think austin kind of maintains like ninety seven percent. Okay cokie yes good question. It's like you're good at this or something. When i came over to texas. I always expect that texas was going to be like a little walden a little bit out becky kind of place and then when i went to austin it was really like university. Lefty hippy sort of got a real shock. When i went there. I thought this is not what. I expected texas today. Like it's really sort of. I guess what we would call bondo in sydney very conservative. It was it was quite a shock. Conservative in the. Don't get me wrong but it was just. It was not what i expected texas today. Kind of expect that people walking around and cowboy hats and you know like really sort of out there. But it wasn't that it was like a real university solar town. Yeah very much i mean. The university of texas is one of the biggest universities in the state. And it's right downtown. In fact people bitch about all the time. 'cause it's taken up real estate but Yeah austin is definitely a liberal. Or i guess like a freethinking hippyish none in a sea of conservatism. Bet yes yes yeah. It's it's cool man. It's it's part of the conservation you know like if we didn't have our bridges and if we conserve that would really suck up a lot of bat regulation so yeah i grew up in houston which is a huge city with a lot of cultural diversity and i absolutely love that and i kind of miss that here but also i don't really miss seeing all the political flags like most of the political flags and banners i see in people's yards aligned with my political beliefs and so It's i feel pretty comfortable here minus the lack of diversity in some ways but it's a growing city there's people move from all over which i think is also helping to contribute to that kind of very pretty awesome. Barbecue was great. Oh my god. Did you hear joe. Rogan was like when he first moved here he had diarrhea for a week because he wouldn't stop eating. Barbecue came up in my facebook memories. You know last us a year ago. Psa national so where the hotel was there was a like. The closest place to eight was a mission barbecue at so i literally. I think i was there for six days. I all my meals that valley. We don't have places like that. He go to make your own bubble. You're doing there's plenty around but there's no good chains like that podcast excess in general. Yeah no we're gonna talk about barbecue. Pat no. There's a lot of good barbecue here though. Honestly like just throw a dart and pick one on one kind of do a pretty good job. Yeah but that's not a not a barbecue. Place like the traditional ones like they. Barbecue houses are amazing. Carry-on i'm sorry hijacked this and turned it into the smokehouse cost. We always got to have tangents tangents or fun. Yup long story short. It's funny. I just listened to y'all's episode with amy sadler and whenever i got there to austin pets alive. There's a guy named. Mike have yanni. Who is running the behavior program who actually I don't know if he apprenticed or went to like some sort of program. But he worked with amy sadler when she was in long island where he grew up and so he implemented this whole player programs of dogs. Playing for life was a huge huge influence on me and obviously like i've had some negative experiences with dogs social stuff to where i i really want a lot of practice before i start offering something like that. Yeah i got to see that. Because mike was so progressive in his training ideals and i saw all the tools there were some dogs that had prong collars or some dogs had easy walk harnesses some had gentle leaders and i just i fell in love. I was head over heels. And even when i did get a job there eventually as a dog adoption. Counselor which was basically my responsibilities. Entailed walking the dogs medicating them feeding them. I even took care of the maternity ward pups as kind of progressed through the positions there. And yeah i lived and breathed that and i would go even on my days off so much so that lee would be like. Do you have like scale it back a little like come on. I'm like it's the first thing that i have ever truly loved in terms of like a profession that i think i can see myself doing this for a very long time. I loved trying to convey the importance of trading and convey the importance of structure to new adopters. I loved matchmaking and trying to get people matched up with the right dogs. I used to make flyers and photoshop for adoption events. And like i just. I knew i wanted to be inundated but when you live in a no kill city sometimes you get some really really difficult dogs. Sometimes you get dogs where the humans have consistently failed Not necessarily for not trying either. There's there's one dog in particular that i always think of. His name was drumstick and we made the mistake of taking his fear. His distrust whatever you wanna call it of new people and trying to get food to basically accommodate and maybe hopefully close that gap a little bit but unfortunately it backfired because once the person didn't have food in their hands after enough adopters. Come through you've got repetition in these behaviors in these protocols and if the food wasn't there got pissed and we'd try to bite And so there's a couple of dogs that had to go and a lot of times honestly apa was very good about being very clear about what their lines in the sand. Where if they did have to say goodbye to a dog in houston is obviously medical stuff. That was a little bit clear but with behavior it can. It can be really tricky especially when you have volunteers who fall in love with the dog who are dedicated. Staff members form of the dog. And when you have a dog that's been there for seven hundred days. It's a little bit of operations management at that point because like if that dog isn't there that frees up potentially kennel for another dog that's really easily adoptable and therefore then you can save a lot more dogs so it's always a tough call to make. I think that was well like you. I've had in my entire career. Only sort of recommended euthanasia for a handful of dogs. And it's such a big decision to make on behavioral grounds like medical grounds. We can look at it. And i think it's almost a eddie not almost at mercy that we're lucky to be able to afford dogs that we don't get to afford our loved ones like you know. My grandfather died a horrific death because y- it was on life support and that know there's no other choice but with dogs. At least we get to give them that most at a time. But i think making that decision on behavioral grounds fucked. That's a lot of responsibility to take on and also like it's a funny one. I think you know in shelters especially because it's so easy exactly as you say like you have to triage right. So maybe like if that was someone's dog you would put in a lot more. Will things would be different. It's not that you'd put him more effort but the lack the dog would have a better chance. And i think about that a lot because sometimes you save china's who will say it's a really big call to make that decision alone as well you know to mainland missing little pace. You could record. You could take dole's law f- for what could be a fixable problem just because you didn't say it and there's so many things like that like you fuck up all the time and what about bias. Yes block the dog ada. The personal was never give it a proper chance that so self. it's a it's such a difficult situation to a hard coal to mike but of course it has to be made in some cases. I think it should be penalized. Based i think there should be a group of ps look at it and you get a collective of together and say look there is just no hope for these targets fucking miserable. It's living shit life and rather than those. Ps spain people that collaborate together. Officially it should be three people. Four people look at it and decide. Al agree and majority rules kanda thing. Yeah i think that it's how they don't think the power was given just to the head of the department. I think it was the entire behavior team and then potentially anybody else who might be involved. Sometimes sometimes outside opinions were sought after which was which was cool but after working in that kind of environment for a long time and seeing their some dogs that just cracked perfectly lovely wonderful dogs and just the day in day out in the stress of three hundred dogs yelling. Hey what's your name. Ezekiel gets a little old and it gets stressful and frustration builds and. Fortunately there were mandatory outings twice a day but sometimes those dogs wouldn't out till noon if we had a busy day and we were short staffed in volunteers and sometimes the final potty break would be at seven and then the next one again is at like eleven thirty the next day. That's a long time and you know at least. Those dogs added a little bit better than the city shelter at the time. But still like it. It's stressful and i saw this one. Dog named zion. Just snap one day. I came back and he was like yelling at everybody that walks by and he was a cute dog man. Fortunately he got to go to sanctuary. But not everybody's that lucky because if there's no space at sanctuary i mean they only take so many dogs and those dogs live there for life so it takes a while for their for those sanctuaries to have turnover sanctuary. Talk about that. So the place. He went to his somewhere in like zion around zion national park and utah. I think it was best friends or something like that. But it's essentially a place where dogs with behavior problems go to live out their days and don't know field so thing yeah or they have like big runs and sometimes they'll do like social type stuff. Fit just depends but it's very much a like to the have no intend to rehab these dogs. That's just like you might ok. They might but there's no expectation of rehab. Okay so if if the dog gets rehabbing it goes home with a staff member or something like that then. Great but it's not. There's no intent to put that dog back out in lake so it takes the pressure off. I think it gives the dog a lot more time. So i have no idea what happened is i and i. I hope he's happy and frolicking somewhere with some volunteer. That loves him on. Living's oil yes he did. You're making a story up. I can corroborate this year. There's photo evidence. I can put you in touch to stop producing it now. I agree with you because you know we've spoken about one hundred times on the show. I went hop about like my dog if he if he got out of my house and was picked up by the local council and put into the local shelter as the ski cross bred. German shepherd that he would be called. He'd be dead in a way because he is. He's a social loving beautiful my dog but he would not handle that situation and he would just draw ivan. Frustration frustration becomes aggression. And he's a dog that he's not afraid to bought people in fact he spent his whole life being taught how to do that. So like it's it. Would it that kind of situation. Really pulls on my heartstrings. Because you wonder how many dogs that you say. They shelters had someone like that. Who's desperately looking for them. You know like in and it's like man you were built into being this genetically selected to be like that you will building to buying this and in the right circumstances. You're someone's dream dog and however you came to be in here it's just all fucked out for you like solitary confinement. We'll drive you insane. Yep with jeremy. Crazy is part of my job of matchmaking. Potential adopters dogs is like the minute we would get was almost all chihuahuas and pit bulls but the minute we get like a husky or german shepherd especially a white german shepherd with blue eyes like everybody was waiting to see that dog and of course by the time a dog like that gets to us at apa. It's got all kinds of problems resource guarding or very territorial. And there's these people with like little kids. And i'm like you can't have that dog you see it staring at your child right now. That's not okay leg. And i'm like it's really and they say things like it's really pretty and i'm like okay. Go go fill out the paperwork and we'll talk and of course like would eventually pick up. That dog adopted. And then it'd be back in a week or two for all the problems. There's this one lady. Oh my god. There's this one lady. We had this dog on medication because it was very stressed out. It was very neurotic it looked like potentially at husky or something like that in twenty years similar coats probably a lot of dr honestly looking back on it now and we explained to her going home we she made one of the adoption counselors cry so i had to come in and step in because i was shift lead at the time and now they behavior team was available yet and three of us told this woman do not stop his meds cold turkey. I understand that you don't think it's okay to medicate dogs. However the point is he is medicated. Now and if you stop it you're gonna have a pretty severe consequences and of course. What did she do that day. Stopped all the meds. Two weeks later. Three bites later now. This dog has basically a solid reason to be euthanized. And it's all as stupid ladies fault because her ego gotten away pitch so as you can imagine like all these kind of negative experiences kind of started mounting up. And i also to be honest like i lead myself into my own. Burn out because i fell so head over heels in love with dogs and learning about their behavior and trying to modify their behavior trying to provide structure in their life trying to set them for success when they went home. And there's this one dog. French fry that. I felt like they didn't give him enough of a chance yesterday through dog names. Are you making these drums fry. Xilai leans on no. I'm not making this up and french fry. French fry was such a cool dog man. He was as black pity. And i think he was starting to snap a little bit as a lot of dogs did after being there for months i think they eventually renamed him but i don't remember to what and they put him down a little bit faster than what i think they should have. I think they should have given him a little bit more of a chance or try to foster or something like that and that that dog was like one of the best that dog in nila foods vanilla. Bean is nila beaten those two dogs and dash so those three dogs were like the last three straws that broke the camel's back plus i was overworked. Plus lunch breaks where it mandated and we worked eleven hour days. I'm doing air quotes for those of you who are listening because they were more like fifteen hour days without y your game right here. How can you tell. But i know that from you in the past. Anyway my buddy had a dog in his backyard. And i knew we had a dog but i never asked the dog's name and i said you know what's the dog's name and he goes leroy jenkins fucking aid. That was incredible like the stories. You ain't chicken our listeners. Who might not be gamers is post post that it would There's got to be a little bit of context around and the context is back in the day. You would do these huge raids and dungeons where it would take hours to assemble the right people with in world of warcraft. Well they're all talking about like there's this one guy that's like. Oh the odds of survival is thirty. Three point three repeating. Of course you know super dorky stuff and this guy like just right as they're about to like wrap everything up he just goes leroy drinking's and runs in and starts agruing everybody starting the fight before anybody was ready and of course is a wipe out. They lose all their gear. They lose a shitload of money and was up. I have been in a real life gun for it and been hiding behind a wall to. What do you think we should do. Because leroy jake as you understand this is real life anyway. So jenkins then. Everything turned up yup and got great. I'm from that upgrade to epic content. He got a legendary mount. Derailing should get back to it. That's fine cd school. So yeah after those dogs. It was draining me. I was crying a lot between walking dogs. I'd go to the bathroom a lot. Just to like saab and i was like okay. This this is not. This is very unhealthy. My personal life is suffering. My heart is suffering. Something has to change and i was getting really frustrated with dogs way more easily that i would. I was getting way more. Fresh with potential adopters way more easily than i normally would and so we realize any to change and one of my coworkers had just happened to get a job at a trading big training company. Ripe and i was like hey if you guys are ever hiring let me know but then i started kind of searching and seeing like what kinds of training companies are there in austin or trainers that might take a fairly green person right like i put my hands on a lot of dogs but like trading behavior start to finish ninety nine percent of the time. I teach a dog sit and adore boundary and. That's that's all. I got because the dog would get adopted. Yay you know. And she convinced them to create a position for me. And i got hired and i spent four years there learning going to seminars going to icp. Where i met you guys And after a while. I decided not that i knew it all but that i had reached a ceiling at my current at my company at the time and i there wasn't really a lot more room for growth other than going into a managerial position and on top of that. It was a very heavily e caller based company. So i was like kind of. I don't think we should sloppy callers on every dog like there's some dogs that just it's more of a distraction than than it is a help for attention which is what what was sold you know and so it's been a year now since i've had my own company trained with cerberus and i've been loving every minute of it man and he goes beyond my own bosses way less terrifying and i thought it would be so. Tell us a little bit about that late. But five because i remember talking to you in colorado that you literally just starting that you you cod and rules about it. Yeah like cod right. How did that go like developing your own clients and going from like hey is organized for you there. Like he's your run. She turn up. These are the dogs structured. And you don't do any of the mocking you. Just deduct china right whereas now you're your business person finally using that business degree. I know it's amazing. How much shake carries over like. I mean you've seen me at conference i'm like hi michio. Who are you. Because i love networking and that's definitely a product of business school but also big bird of my my personality but a lot of things right. Am kind of an outgoing person. I'm generally pretty fun loving be. I'm going to stop losing off letters. Because it's just gonna get we're gonna end up to z down stop. One of my friends had started her own business and she was about two years into it by the time. I was kind of ready to start mine. So i've been picking her brain a little bit. Melanie ben wear actually helped me a lot in formulating my first business plan. Because i was like. I don't know if i deported trains. I don't i know. I like lessons but i also kinda want like a want weekends off and i wanted to spend the evenings with my with lee. Because that was kind of a source of contention previous company. They worked us a lot. And i just i as i went through kind of all the things started taking off all the boxes i was like worst case scenario. I fail and i come back or go to a different company or do something. Different altogether like fuck. It have already done to career changes. What's one more you know And yeah i just got tired of my hours being so heavy and having to do so much and not get paid as much like an at the same time i was also doing. Sales is a big component of my job. Right somebody comes in they say. Hey i want training. So i had a lot of experience doing that. Like the last two years of my my tenure if you will and so i just kinda had all the soft skills in place already. I was already talking to clients. I was already given up business cards. Whenever i would have dogs out in public and it just sort of felt like the next natural progression and i just said you know what fuck it. Let's do this and i did. So what model did you take on exactly has. Has it work so what i started with was basically exactly what melanie was doing but also doing lessons. Because i wasn't. I didn't have a lot of volume yet and at the time about a couple of months into it. One of my the volunteers that i became very close with at apa who was helping manage adoption. Follow up on the volunteer side. She reach out to me. And said hey. I saw your facebook post that you're starting your own business. We're actually excuse me redoing our adoption. Follow up program. Do you want to be one of our trainers. And i said who fucking lutely yes and like to this day i without lifting a finger i get at least three to five sometimes six clients a month from just apa Just them sending people might way which is really awesome So it's like. I basically had so does oats a long time ago and now they're bearing fruit which is really cool I have i became friends with a lot of my clients as well and they send me referrals. and ninety nine percent of my business is just referrals. Their existing clients or previous friends or whoever Which is pretty cool. There was nice of you to give a shit at melanie benway because i think she does a lot of extra curriculum. Helping young people get involved in the industry and then helping them set up like she makes time for people. I mean i've not known mail for a long time. But in the time that i've known her her and i actually become quite close friends enough way like erin husband jokes that way like wife and husband because we are we speak to each other pretty much every day and she is just an amazing person. I like her work ethic and her ethics in general like she's the type of person that is in incredible president for the say you know she puts that job ahead of her own physical and mental health the amount of volume that she produces not only for the pay but for the people within like she genuinely cares about people she cares about the industry and really wants to see it expand go places. I can't i mean look to be honest. Account say enough nice things about it because generally respect her overall ethics. Yeah no she set aside like two hours a day. Just talk me through it on the phone and and at first i was like i can't believe she's setting aside this time for me and then when i saw her post i don't know if it was on the icy pager on y'all's page her program and like hey tag people who might be interested doing this program on here and i see her. Hey let's schedule a call. I see her doing that with tons and tons and tons of people and it's it's amazing like the fact that she has the bandwidth to do that. And i love that especially when you come from austin is very much like like you. Said hippy dippy. There's a lot of purely positive people here and force free and that type of thing which is the eighth. Also the town right right. And so i kind of got used to like trainers literally spitting at me and telling people leaving business cards that had like basically our name of our company modified with like the word shit and fuck you and like random stuff like that and they're literally harassing us at trade events like we impulsive only. I know it's fucked up. Fortunately that guy's gone so screw him. But there'd be people that would show up to my group classes and videotape. And i get super paranoid and i'd have to go confront them because like hate like you can't. You can't do that but also like to say you should watch that back. You might learn some right well and sometimes it was just people like know what you're doing is amazing. This is awesome or oh. That's my cousin over there with her dog. I'm just in town. I'm just videotaping for them. Like sometimes so. Can't come all like confrontational right off the bat. There'd be times where people will be waiting for you to fuck up and just at the right freeze frame. The right still and when we would send clients Videos of their dog. We'd have to be very meticulous about making sure it didn't look like we kick the dog. Of course we weren't taking dogs but if you like step towards them in a certain way or whatever now i don't give a shit now. I'm like you're you're going to see corrections. You're going to see if i push into your dog. You're gonna see all of that. Because i'm clearly not abusing the dog and i am comfortable with what i'm doing. What i'm showing is important for this client to see. I wonder if there's like police people out in the wild but tell wild animals not to play rough and be rough and tumble with each other. Well now i'm being silly but silly we have a topic and working to but that's worth exploring a little bit. Because i broke one of my cardinal rules and it actually worked out pretty well so i got rain forest and now you know who knows from he but i got into facebook thing the other day with a it was actually with a guy who would call himself a balanced china and it was just in a local dog owners group. Like we're leaving. Cd's call the west and it was just a local dog on his group day. Right and as he's go-. I posted this thing like calling out positive only china's and it was really stupid shit like nobody who's ever actually heard positive. Only people say the sort of things that he was saying but nobody. Who's actually trying to dog. Would ever believe any of that. And he was copying a lot of flack and i thought. Yeah fuck getting on these sensitive smashes quite a little bit. Because i thought like you just talking nonsense like this. We'd self promotion thing. And then i had a bit of a back and forth. One of the it turns out. She's a behavioral veterinary by royalist. And she's of force free and we kind of agreed that he was talking nonsense but the issue like we can all agree on lots of different things and we. We spoke about this last week with sadler we enjoy. I very much enjoyed talking about you. Know force free methods and that sort of stuff. Because i think if you're gonna fight in a boxing ring one hand talk behind your back. You better be fucking good with the other one for training behaviors. Like i'd really like to talk to people. And take what i can from them and i think that all in all there's no arguing where the punishment works and anybody who actually understands training. They can argue that life yet. They can argue that. But what is absolutely totally okay. Dog use the ethics patients. They ought to want to and that's totally fine too. But the issue with the people. You're talking about there is like what part of that force free community or or the plus china's or anything like that they just fuck to legislate they competition out of business like that's what they want is because like i don't have the skill set to keep up with you and i'm on willing to do that so what i needed. You gone right. And it's not that like what i want to win by you. Losing not by me beating you and that attitude is disgusting and human being like it really truly is disgusting and any victory that you have is hollow you know and you know that when you go home and you like on the winner of non right like it's you know you didn't win shape but that's the issue i really say is people like that that would try to either legislate a the competition out of business or just drive them out of business voi- out like false bad reviews and that sort of stuff. It's but i think that happens. Like the reason. I bring this up and the reason i talk about facebook sort of thing i got involved him was. It was actually a balanced trying to do that. Like he was misrepresenting. What of positive. China would say. And that's an issue we've got a coal add as much as we do a force fray trying that's misrepresenting. What a balanced person would say. And and so i think that like because we can really easily leaving the middle like we really easily can and and you can have people like because there's room for everybody. Facade is and like saying that force very methods at work is largely nonsense. They often do work. It's just about time line and then we have to think about what. How does that play into laima. And and that is a big part of the ethics pace in my ethics. Not your ethics and i think it's totally fair and reasonable that we have different ones. And so you know like if you're willing to completely micromanage dogs law f- for six months in order to fix a behavioral problem. Okay no arias. But if i'm prepared to use a lot of positive reinforcement but also decided okay man. You can't do that thing right. And i can fix that same problem in two weeks. My opinion is that that is a less stressful experience for the dog. Because i can quickly solve issue and getting back to a normal life and yes i will use some punishment along the way and that punishment will likely be paying compliance right. I will give penalty for something that and and for me. That's like okay fair enough you learn fast and for others. They say no absolutely not like unprepared to do that. And i will fix the same problem but it will take me six months and we go okay. We can get along fine. Because the fact is i've had clients device for that. No i'm being the guy that does the six-month version right totally being that god. But i've also been the guy at the five and a half month with people like fuck the bronco out and Yeah okay yeah fuck this. I've been i've had it in my pocket every session. It's been waiting here ready for you grading for you and and now we can fix. But like i don't think that's really an interpretation of lima and you have to decide that for yourself. Well i can't tell you what lamer is. You can't tell may eight right. I think that we will fall on a spectrum of that. It's marin honestly at all like like we always say it always comes back to the dog. What does the dog perceive as rewarding. What does the dog perceives punishing in that moment as fucking absurd that we put our egos into it and and try to predict what that might be in and say with absolute certainty. Like there's no certainty when it comes to that the only thing you can be certain of what you're doing and then monitored monitor the results exactly. That's it we had on the show. You're talking about her earlier. This two things. I want to say about that. One is in reference to what you were talking about earlier on in the shelter that frustration and suffering that. You actually go through in working in that environment. I think collectively there would be a lot of people around the world that are experiencing that same sort of thing. Because i feel well. They experience a kind of learned helplessness. That this is as good as it gets. And that itself is why i really appreciate people like amy who've gone out there and said the system is not working the way it is and these dogs suffering under it and not only of the dog suffering but the stafa applying a heavy burden on them as well. You've got dogs are going crazy. You've got staff that are just feeling helpless and overwhelmed with the top dogs. That are going into you know like i really appreciate that and i me and this people. We haven't who probably listen to this show. What about me well for you you as well you know all you guys that are out there who are producing that type of jace type of environment inside kennels dogs getting out and getting on mills and getting a job to do. You've got nothing but pure respect for doing that. The other point i want to make was when we were talking. I mean we're talking about the movie. The joker and i was watching an episode. Was it now. That was tyler. Was that title tali right. It was tyler. Yes yes movies. That's my favorite adaptation. I've ever seen it's incredible. Incredible had on haith ledges grave like that. Okay look a d- astray and okay there. My top two. Those two are my two. Yeah definitely too. But i mean you blow off. Jared let us and he's and he's horrific terrible interpretation of the jack. His was good but it was still comic book. Team britain whereas walking phoenix was like holy shit literally rail. Yeah but there's a point. Oh mike was. I was watching an episode of the crown last night which is a portrayal of the english royal family and it. It has a whole episode. It's a bit of a spoiler but it's not because everybody knows about it. There was a guy that broke into the queen's personal bedroom like he scaled the wall and got in you know this was portrayed around the world and hey pretty much the reasoning the pressure behind. Why he did that was ultimately the same as why the judge had become the darker it just felt so fucking helpless and so overwhelmed with society. Like he's lost his wife he's kids. I mean he's probably a bit of a douche and his own rights people like generally. Are you know they've got attitudes. I just don't understand it but if someone said doing there's no one you can really talk to talk to the queen. So he did. We literally broke into apartment and said on a bed and spoke to wear fit for ten minutes. Any accepted these fight that he was going to get arrested and so forth. he just said. I've got no one to turn to and you really need to listen to somebody and i felt sorry for the guy like i undestood. He's ploy tonight. Understand why people get pushed to such a level you know and we fundamentally feel the same way with animal reform and these new. You know we're facing a new prevention of cruelty to animals. Act that's coming into the moment which elements of it. Adjust ridiculous and the problem for most of us around the world. Is al governments who are elected by us. They don't really listen to us. You know. I like they listen to a select group of people who allow them the courtesy of saying we'll just fluff these through and we'll say what you want to say. So they cherry pick the crowd that they actually want to come in. And that's sad because it happens on multiple levels in multiple environments and that's why people become so frustrated and desperate and lose fucking mind is because people aren't giving them the appropriate audience they night and that's my rant. Well it does it it ties into the whole kennel dog thing because that sometimes where you see. Dogs can be reinforced for extreme versions of behavior. Push them to the lima and then they're like faulk this. I'm having this he gets blow up you've ever seen and then that brings someone down to stop them. They like wrought got you. This is what and and it's pushing them to that extreme we actually. I don't know if your remember many years ago. We had a very similar thing here in sydney where he's mental health background is what it is but he was refused access to his kids. You remember that. and he glenn hob breach. He called the habit bridge and held the whole city hostage because he shut down the hobbit bridge while climbing in and takes he wasn't gonna come down until he story was heard and it was the same thing lacks the pushed to the extreme and because he felt helpless to in any other way and fucking earthy. Got telly story right. Like everybody hood. Shut down the cd. Yup i should have come to that. Yeah that's right. But i think that's something that we can observe like to try and make it adobo cost is. It's definitely something that we can see in dogs. That have that that big fucking. Lash out where they're like. Hey i've tried all the things. I've tried all the things i've tried growling tried like i've tried you know all the subtleties of this behavior. And i've tried you'll process and none of that's working and the problem is if they locked in cattle dog as you were talking about me there is no. There is no right like this. Is your life my friend. you'll even in. The dog blows the fuck up. And maybe you just coming down to tell him to shut up ease the reinforcer that he got lack at least that was something i liked. That was better than nothing. At least i got in trouble. And that's how you create that joke. That's where it's like at least on trouble and being in trouble lease this is way. I think that you know to deepen the conversation. On force ray training positively versus using some punishment is like reinforcement is relevant from way. You came from right up so like a brutal. Baiting can be reinforcing to to some people at depending on jay jack. Y- beat up. Tell the like when i did that. It's a big part of when i teach a talk about and i think took down. The show is when i did that resistance to interrogation. That's the whole point of it. You have your interrogation which would normally on a normal circumstances he was like. Hey we like you. We beat you up a little bit like not too bad. But we're going to give you a little bit of a haunting and then naked in front of a panel full of people you're going to be interrogated and that right now sound horrible. But when you're option is your other option needs to be locked in a shipping container listening. Nappy deshaun on coca deal right. It's fantastic you like fucking. I'll take that beating. Unlike at one. Point when i go drowned like mocked round was like fuck. Yeah getting dragged is awesome. I drown me some. Oh this is fantastic right. It's all about perspective. Go through the punishment to get to the reward. Yeah and the what was meant to be punishing fucking wonderful to me because i was like with the alternate. He's being locked in a box. And so like snappy schmitz nappy just clinical could you and so it's relatively black punishments and reinforces relative from way you kind. Yeah relative in perspective to very powerful outcomes Yeah i think that's a pretty good segue for the whole topic. That i actually wanted to forty five minutes ago when we sided. Because you've got something to say right. I got some shit to say. Yeah let's hang on. Let me explain so. We've talked a lot of shape because we talk a talkers and so people be like. Yeah get to it right. But it's part of the dramatic inter edging conversations. Segues into what you tokens. So so one of the things that i have learned along the years is basically kind of learning to look inside and truly accept yourself for who you are and where you came from. And what your reinforcer are i through. I have learned this year. That i threw myself into shelter work. Yes because i loved it. Yes because i didn't know that you could love a career. I thought you would hate your job and then go home and do fun stuff. I didn't think you could marry the two. But also because like. I experienced pretty severe trauma when i was a child. So there's two things that happened. And glenn you and i actually talked about this in colorado and There's something that's literally been kicking around in my head for an entire year since one of our conversations that night and essentially what happened to me was when i was twelve. My mom was diagnosed with a pretty aggressive uterine cancer. That needed a very aggressive treatment plan so there were days where i'd come home and i didn't know what i was gonna fight. I didn't know if she'd be alive. I didn't know if she'd be chipper. I didn't know if she could even fucking talk right. So that's number one. Meanwhile my sister was eighteen and kind of doing eighteen year old things and dealing with that trauma in her own way and my dad had to work had to continue working so between the hours of me coming home from school and my dad coming home. I was primary caretaker right else a lot to ask of a twelve year old with owned. Yes it was. Very turbulent especially between my parents and my sister to the point where i fucking hated my sister. I had severe abandonment issues between her. And i never really accepted that. I had any issues with my parents which which was get to that. The other thing that happened at the same time was i had a friend who turned out to probably have undiagnosed borderline personality disorder and she manipulated me and she was awful to me and she made me feel very very very very small to control me right so as soon as i graduated high school i was like by bitch see never and i got the fuck out of there which i think is one of the reasons why i really appreciate boundaries so much because it was impossible to have those with her and i decided never again. Will i let anybody treat me like that. Ever a fucking dead ever get and so this last september issue of two thousand nineteen. I was like you know what i have. Some clearly unresolved issues. I know i went through this traumatic experience. I thought that i had worked through. I thought i had talked through it. I thought i understood. But i didn't. I didn't know the half. I'd barely scratched the surface. And what i didn't realize that talking about it kind of openly with sort of a cop out it was. It was me running away. Because i was like would i talked about it but i'm okay with it see. I'm fine but it was just a cover up so i decided to go to therapy. I had tried therapy in the past and it just. I didn't quite find the right therapist. And like i sort of worked through it right. Where through my issues earlier but again there was just a band aid and this last year i have gone on a very very very deep dive and truly accepted it and honestly i think a big part of it. It's weird to say this. But i'm kind of grateful for not the pandemic not for cova and not for all the horrible things that have happened but just for what it's forced me to do like texas shut down for a few months. I couldn't do anything at all. And i just had to sit there with my thoughts and meanwhile parents and i have very different political ideologies. They were on a fucking cruise ship in march like they got on a cruise ship two days before the country shut down fucking boat and i had to deal with their mortality and one of the things that my sister pointed out to me when i was like freaking the fuck out was that mom had cancer. He had cancer twice actually. She recovered from her uterus cancer and then years later had a bladder cancer. That was the result of radiation and chemotherapy and You know and she kicked ass. And then my dad got prostate cancer and my my sister was like look dude. They've had to face their own mortality three times three times at least not not even including all the shit of leaving poland and emigrating to the united states and all the crap that they had to go through that and so when she kind of framed it that way i realized like. Oh fuck yeah. Of course go party who gives a shit about cove it you know you die you die. You almost died. It's fine right and one of the things that really stood out to me. I was like. I don't understand why this keeps rattling around in my head is we were drinking. We're hanging out at the bar and glen. You're like something's deeper is going on inside of. Have you ever had trauma. And i was like yes and he said specifically who hurt you. And i said my mom and the entire year since then i was like oh god i wish i could go back in a race. I wish i could go back in a race that and say no no no. It wasn't my mom. It wasn't my mom that hurt me. Because what kind of fucking monster says your mom got cancer and therefore she hurt you like. That's such a piece of shit selfish thing to say but at the same time it's not it's a perfectly reasonable thing to say and i had suppressed it for so long that i just off the cuff blurted it out. But he was a hundred percent. True reason i discovered that it was one hundred percent. Sure was that a couple of weeks ago before the election here in the united states got into text. Fight over politics with my dad. Which number one. Okay don't talk about politics in that context overtax lie. That's horrible and i had this huge blown-up reaction at that point. My childhood friend who essentially emotionally abused me. That's who i was responding to. I wasn't my dad. It was that end. When i realized that i i told my therapist about it. And i talked her through talk through it and she asked me to entertain the idea that perhaps mad at my dad because she told me i was like a little soldier whenever he she would ask me about my dad or if i was ever angry at him or upset or anything like that my response was always like well of course not he had to go to work. My sister was you know what i mean eight. She abandoned me. And i can't be mad at my mom and then i realized i really truly sat with that. I really tried to entertain the idea. Michelle from a couple years ago would never intended. I'd be like no that's stupid. I'm not doing that. I'm not thinking about that. But i decided you know what. Maybe she has a point. Maybe she knows more than me. And i sat with it and i sat with it and i realized two things number one. I desperately want to be close with my parents. But i push them away because i'm afraid of them going again right. I'm afraid of getting close and then me having to deal with all of that shit all over again. So i've kept them at an arm's length and then what i realized was what i blurted out to you. Glenn that's what i was feeling I was mad at my mom. And i had never once entertain. That idea. never once accepted that. And a kind of just set me on this path of like it is important to know who you are into know where you came from and to understand what is truly going through your head when you're looking at that dog in front of you when you're talking to that client when that client pisses you off when a vendor that you're dealing with in your business upsets you and there are systemic and you just have this knee-jerk reaction to tell them to go eat shit and die like that's not enormous on a normal responses coming from somewhere and it's a little bit deeper than just having a shitty day at work because sure. Yeah you have a shitty day at work you gotta put your shit on a shelf and not take it out on the dog. I i hope people understand that but it goes a lot deeper than that because we are all a product of who we are and where we've come from an unless you can accept and love yourself and forgive yourself for hating your mom for a little bit. You can't go forward because that's always going to come back into effect you always. It's going to hold you back in ways that you didn't realize it could hold you back. It echoed around in my head for a long time. The soccer tastes quite knows. I self and i remember back in high school. One of my friends was doing. He was quite autistic. Inarticulate in philosophy and he was doing a project on socrates and he was talking to me about the quite never really understood. I never took the time to to undistorted and lock yourself may show this pots my life that broke into and i think sometimes we identify ourselves and other people as well like he can say people are hurting and using humor to cover it up and you may vary kindred souls in that type of areas that when feeling we try and laugh things off more. When we're hurting hard that happens. I can say that in other people because identified it myself. And that's where. I learned the power of that. Phrase know thyself. You know like understand who you are and where you rain forces do come from and what troubles you and how you can. I mean i fundamentally. I think when you're on that pathway that proper pathway you're on the pathway to correcting the imbalances that are in your life good for you for being able to say it. I mean the todd and you wanna hide it and there's a lot of people in the in the dog training industry in the industry itself. Not just the dog training industry. Let me say the animal industry that are in the industry because they've given up on trying to connect with other human beings. I find it very difficult to do. Something's happened to them. They've experienced some sort of childhood trauma. Some sort of trauma. They don't trust people much anymore and the unyielding love that they get from animals comforts them. And that's what brings a lot of people to the industry. And i know that because i know from experience of working with so many people who've escaped the social confidence to be out come into to an area where they do feel at pace and they do feel loved because sometimes i think to myself what drives the staff to turn up every day as you know like ryan high or sunshine and work with dogs who are spluttering and shape them and they're in that environment all the time and they can still small and they can still feel happy still love the whistling while they were and i think to myself amazing and that took me time to get that is because they for the first time in their life they experienced what they believe is love being loved being animal so happy to see them and feeling so connected to them and so forth. And when you don't have any life it dawned on me one day i'll sit there and holy fucking shit in finally get something that a little piece of the puzzle that had been missing from my own perspective. And that's why i said before. Perspective is so powerful. Our dogs become a dumping ground for those emotional that baggage that bias that we have whether you used to have this amazing dog. That was just perfect every way. And so you've got another of the same breed because you had that expectation and they're completely different and they're biting you. That's your baggage is creating a bias. The you realize it or not and you have to understand and you have to accept those things at this. Isn't the same person. This isn't the same dog. This isn't the person talking to you that abuse you and your past it something completely different and until you actually work through it tant and your body would gladly take physical pain over emotional pain. I've read the body keeps score and then healing back pain which is a very generic book title by the way very hard to research in. You have to actually send people to link but you know. I had severe migraines for years at first. I thought there her monal. I was always looking for an answer. I was always looking for a specific solution to solve that problem. What i realized it was my own anxiety. It was my body trying to get me to focus on this because it was the emotional shit. It couldn't handle. Because i didn't have capacity had been holding so many things in for so long and like honestly if you use your dogs and emotional dumping grounds you may not even realize that you're doing it but like the town is a perfect example of that be town when i got him was as cool zesty. Amazing dog who wouldn't stop fetching. And i was like your fucking cool. I n your chihuahua like. You're the coolest chihuahua i've ever fricking met. And so i- scoop them up and then he started biting me a lot and he would by other people and i was like clearly me for example. Ibm bit pat. I fucking warns you. Though dude i told you not to touch you. Know people say not touch the doug on it's fine. You were the again bias. There you go right there and and like what in the last year. One of the things that i did. Because my previous company was so bedie's heavy it was obedience. Obedience obedience do the obedience and it will become habit. That was the mantra. That's what i told clients all the time and then i took off the collar off town. After fricken three four years and nothing was habit. Nothing was laid into him. Everything would just perished if i didn't reinforce it or maintain it in some form or fashion and i was like okay so this is bullshit Clearly i need to find a different route because like after four years that should be habit right and what i realized was that i had all this. I wanted to fix him so badly. And it was a means for me. Avoid to avoid fixing myself essentially and to avoid. Because you know what you've got problems and they're more important than my problems. I didn't put myself. I at all and that sets i put work. I put my emotions. I put my clients put my i put everything else before right and so in the last year since leaving the previous company and starting my own. I was like you know what. I just want you to be a co. I kind of like retired him in the sense. I just i want you to be a dog. I wanna go on walks with you. but fuck your obedience. I don't care if you heal. Yeah if i ask you to sit and you pop up. I might fix it. But i'm not going to be so militant about it and what i found is that he starting to love touch. He loves fucking touch. It's just that the layered stress of me putting them in lessons in me taking him to work every day and me saying he'll sit down blah blah blah. You must do this stifled him. Didn't allow him the room. The freedom to express and he was so stressed out without looking stressed out because he was happy to fetch. Who's happy to do things. Happy loves to learn. He loves to work. He loves to learn new tricks etc and ultimately it was just a mask. And now like i i can actually pet that motherfucker from top to bottom like three times just because i feel like it and i was just trying so hard to get him to accept my touch. That i miss the point entirely. I missed it entirely. Because all i had to do wish i listened to him. Give him some space space to breathe not expect so goddamn much of him and again that was just my trauma rearing its head and i am until i started to learn that about myself and like i'm reactive is fuck super reactive especially if you hit an emotional chord buck you know like i will tear your head off But also fun loving. And like i just see so much of myself in him and i think that's why i was drawn to him because i needed to learn that lesson. I had to get bit a lot. Because i was pushing it. Sometimes it was. Because you know i wasn't trying to touch him. I just stepped too close to him or something stupid like that. But that's how emotionally charged. Our relationship was and it it. It had to change and until i change myself. Nothing else changed dogs like him can have kind of a hot run and y- up being through a few cycles of this and i'm sort of back recited some of the early dogs alive. Learn to train on would would work with you but never for you right right. And they had the capacity maine's and you know ability to fuck you up if you tried to impose your will on them and they would go along with lax along as things were very top end dogs that were taught to by paypal and genuinely so people as they pry right and would work with us along as you were leading to getting to hunt and bought people but the moment you like no you work for me though like actually do not right right and you learn that very quick on those dogs because it only takes one occurrence of that and then you go like oh. I'm surprised i'm with my life. Thank you we will have a different relationship. And so i had early access to some dogs like that but little chihuahuas like baytown who have that mindset. Get kind of a bad rap of it because like we were just laughing at me. And he put all his bought into that and even immediately. We're laughing like he bit me take you seriously. But if he were twenty kilos heavier that would've been made and out my travel insurance and finally out like having my arm reattached works under that by also. I would never have done that to him. Because i wouldn't take that risk with the bigger dog than you with the small dogs. I feel like sometimes those dogs today whether and that can be learned. I feel like that can be a genetic trait like the dogs that i was talking about that really selected for that but also can we learned where it gets a fair amount of pushback. And he's like no fuck that of my limit of being told what to do. They can start out kind of beatable but then i go. You know what like this is being unfair. This is. I'm all giving this relationship and ural-type i'm finished with this relationship in this in this manner and so long as you can force them of course. They have to comply their avoidance of hamas of the motivator of any creature. But then when the as you say the tools come off the dogs like fuck you So i think yeah understanding that can be really difficult and i go full circle and that sometimes i get stuck into that very opera mindset. You'll do what you find reinforcement and that's it but then sometimes you hit those dogs with a like. Hey only do this with you. I will not do it for you. And i understand that this is you hit the button on that clicker and then producing the food. And i'm not playing you fucking stupid game right like and we and near the dogs that we call that would often get labeled this dobbin. Obgyn top dog. And you're like well actually just really cool and there's so many variables of expressions that way quick to libel. There's often when. I even do one of my aggression seminars. I've got a picture or silhouette of a dog. That's got like twenty or thirty different labels written inside this dog so it's basically a silhouette of a dog with with riding inside it and that's one point that i try and mike in that whole presentation is this is what we're doing when we go look at dogs. Just basically saying he's stubborn or he's aggressive or he's a problem dog. Oh he's this really taking the time to ask the question hawaii dude. I watch what you deal and we don't do that a lot because we kind of get typecast into somebody's opinion of what a dog is. And we do that to ourselves enough to kind of look at people. And all your your aggressive or your micromanage errol you'll the labeling is become like a new trend in the last ten years you know there's a lot of libelling where people that just finger pointing at each other and saying i know who you are your passive aggressive micromanaging son of a bitch. That's what you say me as that's not who my friends will family say me as that's your opinion on on who i am but that's not really who i who i feel i am. I think that command that can be a problem of language as well as humid. Sorry english language is that we will say that doug ease aggressive and so like and it's the same as you know with your doctor. Broncos will get mad at us for that glow. Exactly this way of behaviors. And you know. I had this like talk around a campfire with a friend recently. Who he he had depression without. Try diagnosed with ptsd. Like i'm just depressurize. Not sad about anything i've done. But he was like. I have it. I am not. Because i want to say you are depressed. And he's like no. I have depression. And when i have it i can let go of it but to say that i am. Depression is a ad sure well. That's me dot com. Leave that label and think we do that sometimes with dogs as well where we go you are aggressive and we go okay and then we treat the dog that way and then the dog as well fuck you i am right. And he's you trading me like this are all display this and and sometimes a complete change of scenery. It's kind of like a show. It was an mtv show. It was really cheesy and crap. But i really loved. The premise of it was like they. Reinvented those high school kids before they went to college. Did you ever see that. I don't think science shows and mtv on but it was like i'd get kind of awkward. Kinda geeky kids and that they were going. That were finished high school and they'll go on to college somewhere new. No one knew them and they basically reprogram them to turn up as a new character and it was like nobody knows you hear the or could kid. That don't know you'll history. They know anything about you. And so we can coach you into being who you really are not create a new character right but you'll playing the character that has been created at your school right and so we can create this new character. Who really is you and you can turn to the school and if you use going if you turn up with enough confidence and that's who you are when you arrive and you don't have to bring the baggage say with other dogs as well as like in the hands of one person the doggies something and because they inferred the dog bang that onto the dog. The dog plays the character right. Okay your the your the trainer of an aggressive dog. Well i'll be the aggressive dog. Let's let's play that out. That's the rolling and apply for each other. And then you get a different china top and it goes like. Hey i'm the funds though like. Hey let's let's play these games and let's be cool with each other. No go fuck. I'll play that game to like for you. I'll be that character and they needed ever be the character they were for the other guy he provided the trick is not man and i think that's that's the issue of labelling dogs and that's one of the worst things i think about like the dangerous dog act and the menacing dog dog can be cold dangerous dog. It's a stigma that follows it ran. Yeah but like the before in dogs we still had access and chase the cat yet. We'll have made in the park one day. It was before. I was really into dogs and he had a husky. That was a dangerous dog. And the dog was i met him. And it was great. But kill the cat and the and the circumstance with this dog was on leash walking down the street and a cat like you know who was hiding under a car or whatever like right in front of them was fighting on the straight and then the cat. The dog must go like santa. And the cat was like macos blown and leroy jenkins fucking eight and by the husky. Apparently ozzy like eight at the end and dangerous dog so now he's a dangerous dog forever. He's dangerous that's it. You are dangerous. You copy at and the conditions that we train dangerous doggone like a high max criminal so you. You're in a pan with a roof that he's dug into the ground you're never allowed off leash muzzle. Muslim pablo fide. Yeah and so people start becoming fearful of that like the dog becomes what we've saying that it is it becomes hannibal lecter. Yeah that's the stigma that surrounds the dog. It looks like hannibal lecter. And it's traded luck. Hannibal lecter i said. This was before i was really into. Does i didn't know i couldn't give this guy any advice. I'd love to sort of have interaction with him again because he was saying. Now he's built does have a whole shit behavioral problems because he anything about him right like because he like he's going to walk the dog down the straight dogs in the muzzle on the lay. She caught a. It's now super aggressive to other dogs. And it's playing the character that and that's the and the sloppiness of bureaucrats that get involved in these and they never give any relief and that's why they create such a frustrated community around them is the look into the people's houses. I went to assess too dangerous. Dogs dogs are too old to do anything wrong anymore. And i spoke to the council people who are in charge of the case and they said to me. Well you've been called ram. What's your assessment. The dogs are too old to be dangerous like they should be added. Enjoy the twilight years just walking on the late. I'll say yeah the home. We're in a home. They were in a home with the arna locked up. You know like literally elderly home. Yeah well that was. That was pretty much it. I said these owners are aware of what it would take to leave this now and the responsibility that count that would come with it. And i'll say it wasn't even their fault. I said a trades person left the gate open. The dogs got up and killed in other dog like a smaller dog and they were remorseful of it. They made amends with the owner of the dog. They did all the right things. They paid all the fees. They paid their dues. And that's what i said to these council paypal said what you're doing is is insensitive into the highest degree. Said this is not right anymore. And i said putting my reputation on these lift it. There's no reason to have it on there anymore. These dogs on what they used to be. It's kind of like it comes from a great movie. The shawshank redemption. When you look at morgan freeman as he's younger self and reckless self. As an old man he basically. He's not the same person he was when he was a young boy when he made those mistakes and some of these dogs are not the same dog and they've made one mistake and they've paid such a deep penalty for it and the the own is a so traumatized it's terrible. It's terrible to say what they the conditions and Stigma attached to them has default them round. It is a crazy thing that you can like. You can literally kill a person. Do your time and max that tom. We'll be twenty five years and then all's forgiven off you go. Everything's sweet dog. Kills a cat. It's like no you wear that fucking mazal forever and you'll leaving that pain for the rest of your life from like the let letter. It's a scarlet letter. Yeah you know. I've had my experience with dogs labeled labeled as dangerous and usually it's one of those things where like the dogs got out and especially when there's a size difference between a big dog and a little dog one accidental like over exuberant chump. And now they're trickiest crushed and nobody knows that it happened. Nobody gets to the dog for a few hours. And they're therefore dies right and it kinda sucks because you kinda also lead into a little bit of bias to of like okay. This dog is reactive. The dog is aggressive. that's who they are now. You believe that that's true but if you have a reactive i mean fucking border. Collies are reactive to sheep label as reactive right like chihuahuas are reactive to doorbells every right. I know i've just say it right but it's it's one of the reasons why when i have reactive dog clients. I'm like you can't sit there and think about the dogs activity and only focus on that. Some of your training needs to be fun tricks that you've always wanted to teach your dog in needs to be something low stakes just have fucking fund with your dog man because a lot of times clients get this bias in their head and that baggage that carried over. 'cause maybe the dog got attacked by another dog and that's why it became reactive and now the person has the baggage so they get tense. They get uncomfortable when they see other dogs running around and that travels down the leash all of it travels done the leash and the the one thing that i have to teach almost every single reactive dog client is just to breathe and walk and do the work because it's not their fault. Their dog is like that. It's not the dogs fault that the dog is like that but it is their responsibility to provide the enrichment to provide opportunities for that. Dr grow and shine and be the best possible dog. It can be. I made also accept their limitations. Right you have to accept limitations. Beat out i'm gonna. I could take him to trade shows and as long as he's focused in playing fetch and doing a routine he's fine and if somebody reaches out to them i will yell at them and be like do not touch that dog and i have this commanding presence because of him now but like you have to understand that even that was too much to put on him even though he can do it doesn't mean he should. What i think is a fair outcome for a lot of these people. Considering we're talking about these offenders with the dogs is. I would like to say a more just outcome. Where the bureaucrat. To a creating these laws basically saying okay rather than dog in the backyard. Where it's going to get no stimulus. Ol- i order you to go to a club. You know like an approved obedience club order you to do a years abedian where you have to maintain and also gain certain levels of competency with your dog. I think that would be a wonderful at com. I think that that should be something that people should look more into the design of something like that. I think for sure i mean. There has to be a pasta reduction. We wither it's punishment or yeah well it. China has to be a way to turn it off. Yeah otherwise that's abuse so great when you like. Hey man i've altered my behaviour and like why should i continue to search for the correct behavior win. The punishment is persistent. No matter what. I do that's abuse and which is funny because there are programs like that that i'm aware of but most councils who would manage that mistrial of very force free only so like the gets a bias and so you know the greatest motivator has already said is the avoidance of harm so. Imagine that your doggies aggressive. Because he's convinced that he will be harmed and maybe in that fight where he was labeled dangerous. It was a fight that he didn't stop one right so now he's that way because he knows on the voiding hot noman positive reinforcements going to change that because he's convinced i'm alive because all i'm aggressive to other dogs will therefore be aggressive to every dog that i can be that ain't change in no matter. How many cookies you throw at that dog right. We have to teach an alternate behavior and then when he makes a bad decision go hey come back to he and use lexa judicious use of pressure in that time right and so like. That's kind of the issue is that can then be like a so flicking oscar like it proves it be over and over and over like the dog barking at the mailman. Mailman is always gonna leave gonna come and go but the dog thinks they did. I had a really annoying situation recently. I talk about it. But does he stole say most mornings on the white around group to preschool and it kinda comes to the fence and sort of just checks sat and talked to him every now and again at a few times. He's he's like you know sort of dog but he's a real nice couple of weeks ago walking cost and he goes off at me right like dog really aggressive threes fans so stop and i give him the like. Hey we're friends the fuck you buckingham me for and is like yelling at me. Like just moved. You're upsetting just moving. I'm like if you'd like. I can fix this now. Yeah right because i'm not going anywhere. I'm going to show him like. Hey man with friends friends yesterday. I don't know what the fuck happened to you and lost twenty four hours but like audio was standing there. Yeah but i'm like no. But i'm like hey man i didn't. I didn't do this to like and within a few minutes he would calmed down and being like. Oh you're not the threat that i had. Maybe everyone's not the threat right and but she's like just out of the way like Okay well good luck with your aggressive dog now. Yeah you know. It's funny is like it's so because the human brain is so adaptive. It's super easy to normalize things. And i think that's why everybody falls in these traps of like well. This is the way my dog's always been. So that's the way it's always gonna be. An even though it causes frustration and a rift in their interpersonal relationships and their family or just stress it adds an extra layer like the dog that lives on the corner. Mycole that i pass all the time. And there's this perfect little box shaped scuff mark at the bottom of the door. were clearly dog scratches. Get in and twenty bucks says that same scuff marks on the back. Because i'll hear him barking from inside when i'm walking. My dogs pass insure shit two minutes later. That dogs outside so everything he does is reinforce and i thought about like just dropping treats as i walked by and i was like. I'd be pretty pissed if somebody did that. So like i was like maybe i'll go talk to them and be like affects your dog if you want. But i don't think they wanna fix it. Like i think they think he has a perfectly happy life and you know who the fuck am i to go. Stop into their yard and be like. I'll fix this. You know because they may not want that well. I think in element that affects us all to a degree. some more than others is apathy. And i'll say that a lot in dog ownership as well as they want the dog and then on the first year of life they prepared to do anything they will do puppy class and i do a little bit here and there but then they get apathetic and they knife back and they rot of life and then just like you said. Put the dog in the backyard. He's being appointed in the ass balking at the door just put him outside and everything is reinforced. And that's why people like us will never be out of work. I used to curse people for it. I think we've talked about this several times. I used to curse people for now. Look at it as oh well your client. You're fading my industry and giving all the people that i've been training over the last fifteen years. You're giving all them work so we don't have to compete heavily against each other. If all that dried up you know it'd be like vets. It'd be one on every corner with a lot of work coming in. But i'm happy for him. Yeah hey michelle all these introspection and finding out about yourself and changes over the last twelve months What's changed in your day to day. What do you do daily. That's different and you know we're a don't show so specifically in training other than sort of lost all stuff. What is really noticeable when you look at a video of yourself from two years ago in video of yourself of training today what. What's different about you. i'm much better. The number one thing a much better about being present and not being so reactive to win a client does something. That's a little bit eating. They don't follow through after weeks and weeks is a much better at staying in the moment when i'm with my dogs and enjoying their company and not necessarily making everything about obedience because i'm a big lifestyle trainer right like i don't really like setting aside fifteen thirty minutes chunks of time to train. I'd like to just do it as i do. I like to do it before. I give them their food or just do it while we happened to be out on a walk or whatever but even in those moments i'm not so worried When one of the with a client dog it's the same thing instead of worrying about my next lesson. I can just be there for the dog in the moment and adapt to what's actually happening in front of me as opposed to worrying about what's happening next part of that compartmentalization comes from just a trauma. Right like you have to compartmentalize your mom's dying at home but you still have to go to school. Like there's there's nothing you can do about that right and i think I'm much more empathetic towards myself. So if i have a bad day. Or if i'm just really like something really is just bothering me. I'm much less likely to just shove it in the back end of my mind and come back to it later. Like i'll sit with it and i will be nice to myself about it and i will allow myself that space to explore it and understand it and not not necessarily blame myself right so it kinda comes back to fault versus responsibility. It's nobody's fault the what what happened to me. It's not well. I mean you could potentially put faults on others but it's not my fault for what happened to me but i am responsible for how i respond to it every day and honestly i'm much happier for it and i have i- bicker a lot less with lee. He does it trigger me as much It's life is just generally better. I also do a lot more breathing exercises grounding techniques that i originally learned as like oh way to manage my adhd. 'cause i was on medication for years for mandy. Adhd and i was like you know what i learned some things. I think i can try to manage the stuff on my own. And not necessarily like fuck up my liver and serotonin levels you know so kumon i really. I'm sure we we really appreciate your openness and talking about a lot of personal experiences that happened to you. I mean that takes a lot of bravery to be able to not only confront that to comfortably talk about it as well because they stood things up so thank you for sharing often says that we're dog training. Podcast we are. That's the athos of what we developed is for but we're also an industry related podcast as well one of the big things about the industry. Is we do our jobs. Better when we're in control of what's happening in our lives. And when we feel better about al cells we can be bid at teachers educators. So fundamentally another part of the of this show is trying to help people come to terms with how to be not only a better person but a trainers well. I think that when you know when you talk about that no less. So i feel like in any sort of introspection and i feel like it's such an easy a laugh when you really accept who you are and how you like watching a thought in someone's like wouldn't have done that i would've thrown of spinning back kick in fucking no. You wouldn't have and the quicker you accept that you would've just japan's and got the the the cipher your law because you weren't put yourself in a situation where you think the spinning heel cakes gonna come out but actually the pants go brown right accepting that kind of stuff. Nothing they happen as like. I've always kind of been like that because my job. Is you fuck. You did if you think you're braver than you are. You are you are. You will die and so you really accept your limitations and you go like all right. Don't wanna do that. There's going to be another way and macchia show where you talked to. Bat explosions happen loud. Bangs that shocked and ran away. You know and i. I respected that. You said that. I'm just standing there. And i'll take it like you don't look at explosions but i'm flinch for sure. It happens to show like we have fought. A flight is an instinct response. Absolutely say to people. I don't care the reaction. I care the recovery. Yeah and so a beijing like like if you use hide behind that door and i walk through there and you all go like and then i'll recover and all the attacker whereas like some people don't just discussed fucking both of the womb. Knock your lots. There's a great video. It's one of my favorite ones as and he's standing there and they're kind of like mock interviewing him and someone jumps out of a big bean he just knocks him. The fuck out like doesn't flinch it. Oh well i would have been like and then going for the attack but the quickey you know that self yet because there's a lot of people who have an idea of what they are especially you know like to be on another topic but especially in sort of war type situations people have you. Can't you don't know until you know right. And so you can't find that out if you find out on the battlefield what you'll like cry and that's one of the issues you know. It's another topic but we'll get into like some of the guys that you'll see like a big special forces especially fostered that the most insanely feet ones are usually the ones that left because they didn't fit in because what happened not actually ever tested. The point of the physical side of special forces selection is that they break you down physically to find out who you mentally right so that the facade falls away but some of the guys that are so fit it's it's unethical and unreasonable and impossible to break them physically. So then they never exposed mentally whereas may like chick ten minutes into selection of hugging exhausted. This is the room. There's no hiding but so that's kind of from the issue is you. Don't know until you are broken down what you're gonna do but the quicker you can learn who you really are. I think the easier your gets and you can then make plans. That are really right on top of that is even though you're either. A lot of us was asked to and a lot of people that we made along the way. We're on a journey of self improvement. The thing about that is a lot of people really kick themselves when they fall back into a bad habit. Every now and then i'll make a mistake and i think the important point there is. You will make mistakes along the way you know. And and that was one thing that i suffered along. The way of my journey to improve myself is that there were times where i'd fall back into wrought of doing things but then i had to learn to forgive myself for them as well because even would say to me. Oh i thought you said you were doing this now. You're doing this again. Well sometimes you stumble. Sometimes you need the repick yourself. Granted entry yourself too harsh. When that sort of thing happens understand that in order to get somewhere there are going to be times. Where you you will trip over. And as i think it's a chinese proverb that says full down seven times stand upright. Let's fucking law. And that's a dog training careers as well. And if i don't succeed try try again. I think one of the easiest traps to fall into is no thyself can be taken so superficially. Yeah i know myself. I know that. I like to wake up at this time right there so you can go a little bit deeper than that but still like and that's honestly kind of what the message was that i want to get across. Is that like whether you're working with the specific dog whether you think you're doing all the right things and like you said if you're failing and failing sometimes the only way to learn something to fail to fail to the listen and you have to kind of except when you're sort of just like oh that's good enough. I'm too scared to go down. Go a little bit further or take my dog a little bit deeper into that crowd or go that really crowded outdoor mall space to practice. Because i'm afraid of what might happen. Just fucking go and if you have to leave you have to leave and then you know for sure okay. I need to work a little bit harder. This what can i do to solve this problem or to work through it. Or what do i need to understand about my dog and myself to create the best possible outcome and let my dog be the best possible dog that it can be given its genetic bandwidth and like if you if you can't do those sorts of things we can accept that. Tell you about the skirt that i named that. I made a big thing on facebook. Like playing lead the fifties and sixties sorta ad fits in the hairstyles and so forth being very amused at all. You little calls play goings on. Yeah so i i got into. I skipped bread making in quarantine. And i went right to fuck inside so you read that article from that woman who was like. Stop busy all the flowers. You no honestly i. I'm not a baker baker is to like it's like it's like physics. You gotta have all the ingredients in the right shit. I much prefer stove top cooking. Because i can medal it. I can fuck with it. And i can tweak it but man sewing. I had such journey. I'll keep this short. Because i know we're short on time but basically when i had a lot of downtime i was like fuck it. I've always wanted to. So i've i've sown here and there and done little projects. I took hold mat classes back in the day. All that kind of stuff and i was like you know what fuck it. I'm gonna make the skirt. And i have never i swear a lot if you guys can't tell when i have never sworn as much as i did when i was making the skirt i have never failed as much as i have making the skirt but i persevered and i pushed through it and what i learned was that you literally some things you can only learn by failing and failing lot and yelling. Fuck into the ether. That's that's all you can do. And and it was such an impactful and profound thing that i named my skirt. What's his name zoysia. Which is funny because in the middle drumstick french for a labor job. The food okay. That's a curse. No and i was like oh know it'd be a cute puppy name or like i have a lot of aunts names zoysia. It's very polish. And right and i was like. Oh that's a cute name due to do. And then at the end of it. When i was describing to my therapist my journey of sewing and all this kind of stuff i was like you know what i'm going to name it and so i did some research and i was like let's let's see what kind of names pop up and nothing really stuck with me. And then all of a sudden zoysia came floating back in my head a week later and i was like. I wonder what that means because i don't know what it means. I looked it means fucking wisdom wisdom. And i was like i couldn't be more perfect because i am definitely wiser for it and i and i understand myself a little bit better and i understand that just because i'm frustrated doesn't mean i'm on the wrong path. Boom you drop media just before we do wind up. I just want to say that meeting. You was a great experience at conference and you one of the people who made me feel very welcome. When i came over to the united states and didn't really know anyone. I mean the first time you. You're pretty much straight away. Which i found really fun at the bar like you know like you were right over there and it was like we're a long lost friends and we'd known each other forever and i really appreciate you and i'm glad you're in my life. Thanks i really appreciate that. I honestly i'm very grateful for you. Guys like and i really appreciate this opportunity to be on your podcast because i mean i was listening to denise benzes episode mind was fucking blown and like i constantly learn so much from listening to you guys. I really appreciate y'all y'all have in me on the show because this has been a blast. It's awesome i think. You're right to yup advocated. Hey shit we're getting contact with you about your amazing past. What am i. what do i it like. We've just had this really deep and meaningful conversation and it's like this shit just called this guy with the links. So if you're in austin you can go to trade with cerberus dot com. And i will train your dogs. I also do. Zoom calls as well for fifty bucks an hour and a great way to get some more information without having to spend a dime is going to look up super serious dog. Podcast my co-host courtney. And i have been doing this for almost a year. Now and honestly glenn was very instrumental and helpful in heading helping me set it up and make sure that you know i knew what the fuck i was doing something worth while to share. But it's it's fun. It's a lighthearted podcast. The original intent was basically me. And courtney were sad that we couldn't see each other during lockdown and we were hiking together and doing all the school stuff and talking about dogs. And so we're like you know what since we can't see each other. Let's start a podcast. Maybe other people wanna hear. And we've had pat glenn on the show. We've had chad mackin. And i'd like to think we're pretty hilarious so i love the fact that you guys do you like you have fun doing what you wanna do. And you express yourself your own little media good on ya. Thanks for having me guys appreciate it. Please let pleasure right. That's another sort of the paradigms as always if you like what he plays share. Some scribe do that in whichever subscription service you downloaded from If you wanna support the show the best way to do that is patriot. Guys getting a few bucks a month get you some extra content by you know you could pay as much as you want if you want. I was gonna say lamborghini but run out of things that people could bus. Jet we screwed. You still want that. Whisper whisper room so when bent. He doing the gardening. We donate her in the background all the time. In which frustrates the faulk adamy to know employees patriotic people. By the way my love to whisper room and then after that it'll be sawn as for everybody already pay my own money but seriously people thank you. Thank you thank you. And another way could spoil the show. Tapering some cool merch. Maybe some sort of like fanny pack. You could use as a training. Or oh yeah i rock beach we have throw rugs no no more one more time. H house do throw rugs. We could possibly get them down up if people if there's a high demand zero people that was my throat rog. Like you know it's called. It's coming into winter over here. You don't think so. And if you want dog. Training advice posted in the group. That's the canine paradigm discussion group source. Information they've got some people who really know the talking about. Not just catching microphones. But if you want to talk to. Some decades and microphones at the canine paradigm dot com. Right michelle you have to sit here and listen. More glenn player com. Why everyone else. You have to sit here and listen to glen. It's obviously it's my favorite thing to talk over. Dare and she's dead on.

austin amy sadler virginia ashland texas glenn cook pat steward mel benway international association of k Jason furman Melanie bay melanie pat stewart studio by my co glenn kook houston ninety two percent ninety seven percent Psa national seven hundred days china
The Purpose Of A Stimulus Check

1A

33:12 min | 4 months ago

The Purpose Of A Stimulus Check

"This is one a. I'm jen widen washington. After months and months of waiting it finally happened. Congress agreed on a covert relief. Package worth nine. Hundred billion dollars on sunday includes jobless benefits. Small business aid and stimulus checks. If i receive a stimulus then i would be paying my mortgage payment. I don't have any income right now. No unemployment compensation in any form. So if i hadn't received the last stimulus check. I would have lost my home in the fall. I paid for my son's tuition to go to college. In the meantime i've lost my job so i would use the next stimulus. Check to pay for both of my sons to attend college in january. I did receive my purse stimulus. Check for twelve hundred dollars. I spent it on rent food gas daily necessities and yes. I believe that a second stimulus check for the equal amount for individuals and families would be of great assistance. I'm almost seventy one years old. I'm keeping the temperature in my house at eight. Because i cannot afford the utility bills i really need the stimulus shake now. I might pre in my cold house. Many americans including many of us at the biggest thing they need it was a check. But what happens when you just give people money joining us to talk about the effectiveness of the first two stimulus bill and what it means for the second. One is jason furman. He's a professor of the practice of economic policy at harvard university. he's also former top economic advisor to president. obama jason. Welcome thanks for having me. We're also joined by rachel dressler. She's a research fellow in economics budget and entitlements at the heritage foundation. that's a conservative think tank in washington dc. Rachel glad to have you. Thank you for having me. John and also with us is anti lowrey. She writes about economic policy for the atlantic. She's also the author of give people money. How a universal basic income would end poverty revolutionize work and remake the world. Anti welcome back. Thanks so much for having me and just a quick reminder that the news on this deal may have changed since this podcast episode was recorded for the very latest news tune into your public radio station and follow updates at npr dot org so quickly any just run us through. What the second stimulus package includes. Yeah so it has a number of pieces. There's really quite a bit in here. So there are those stimulus checks Which will go. Six hundred dollars per person will go out People who are in more than seventy five thousand dollars a year. We'll get a reduced amount and if you earned more than ninety nine thousand dollars a year. You're not going to receive checks and those are also for children so a family of four could be getting up to twenty four hundred dollars and then there is an expansion of the unemployment insurance system So that will be three hundred dollars a week and gig. Workers will continue to be able to access. Ui which is really really important given the amount of unemployment out there. It's about another three hundred billion dollars. P p p loans There is another twenty five billion dollars for rental assistance An eviction moratorium in there though. It's not totally clear. How that twenty. Five billion is going to be dispersed. And then they're also some other by eighty billion dollars for schools. Twenty billion dollars for vaccine distribution An expansion food stamps And then some other transportation money So so about three hundred billion and business release. So i'm thinking about the price tag of the first stimulus package. The cares act. That was two point two trillion dollars. This one is about nine hundred billion to your mind. How do the two packages compared with one another so in a lot of ways. This is an extension of that prior two point two trillion dollar Act a lot of this is just kind of keeping going with what what happened there This does however have some real shortcomings in the sense that it's it's been a really long time since that bill passed Those six hundred dollar. Ui top checks stopped way back in the summer so i think the real question is not how this is different but whether this is enough anything given the amount of financial strain out there given where we are with the virus where we really just need to help people get to the point that they can start to get vaccinated in the economy can start to normalize real concerns that this is this is great and every dollar that congress can agree on his great but nine hundred billion despite being a huge amount of money is is maybe not enough. You're thoughts about the second stimulus package. Yeah i would have liked to see a smaller and more targeted package. I think that if we had congress had focused on the provision of covid nineteen tests and vaccine and more on opening doors to offer to days could have provided americans with much needed relief in some health improvements expedited vaccine distribution etc without excessively adding to america's unsustainable debt. You know looking at a couple of the provision out there. I think the pe- loans have been really helpful. But they should be a little bit more targeted you know. We saw the first round the need to get them out quickly. And so all businesses had to do to qualify was to face economic uncertainty. It would be better to tie them to actual revenue losses so that they are going to the businesses who are losing revenues. I'm going to get jason's reaction to the second stimulus packages. Well jason go ahead. Yeah a lot went wrong. This past year especially in the management of the pandemic but in terms of cleaning up after that for the sake of the economy. The cares act did a pretty good job and as any said this is basically a continuation of the cares act. It's the same sets of measures in it. continued in terms of the size of this. The dollars per month is perfectly fine It the unemployment will on average or for typical worker. Replace about eighty five percent of what they're making on the job plus get The stimulus checks which might make up Some of the additional difference. So it's about the right amount per month in fact if anything. It's on the large side per month. The economy right now just to put some perspective on it is operating about seventy billion dollars per month below where it should be. This is about three hundred billion dollars per month if even bigger than the whole economy. My concern is that it's not long enough Well that ends in march and we're going to need more after that and that'll put president biden and a tough nick position to negotiate the additional round. We're going to need well. Yes in any. We've heard from other senators that democratic senators are independent. Senators that they see this as as a down payment. Not as the last aid package. So we've got about thirty seconds here. what conversations are you hearing around another round of aid when there's a new administration in office in january the thing to watch there is that georgia senate race because if democrats are in control of the senate This is going to be a very different picture than republicans are going to be in control in which case. i think. It's quite unlikely that you'll see another package of anything. Like this is their. That's not to say that there couldn't be some negotiations that for instance extended further perhaps Or did more health spending to help get the vaccines out faster. But i wouldn't expect anything massive after this If the senate makeup doesn't change we're talking about the second stimulus package with anti lowry. She writes about economic policy for the atlantic. Also with us jason furman. He's a professor of the practice of economic policy at harvard university and rachel wrestler. She's a research fellow in economics budget and entitlements at the heritage foundation a conservative think tank in washington. Dc generates on facebook. I live in austin texas where affordable housing with scares even before covid now thousands of tents tarps and cardboard boxes service shelter for too many people. These are people working at grocery stores pharmacies restaurants and other essential businesses. Humans deserve housing. We'll hear more from you and from our guests in a moment. I'm jen white. This is one from w. amu and npr this message comes from npr sponsor. At and t. There's a lot that's different about this school year but one thing that hasn't changed is at and t.'s. Commitment to education they're focused on keeping students and teachers connected to learning it's why. At and t. has connected over two hundred million students with tools and technology for distance learning learn more at att dot com slash. Remote learning guy rosina. Npr's how built this. How tim ferriss as an entrepreneur author investor and podcast turned himself into a multi-million dollar brand subscriber. Listen now i'm jen white. This is one a. We're discussing the second stimulus package with jason furman. He's a professor of the practice of economic policy at harvard university. Also with us is rachel dressler. She's a research fellow in economics budget and entitlement to the heritage foundation a conservative think tank in washington. Dc and anti lowery. She writes about economic policy for the atlantic. Now a lot of you shared this critique about the last check. I think that the stimulus checks should only be going to people that really need them. People who lost their jobs the majority or most people have not lost their jobs. And they're doing just fine on the last check. I felt like they better needed to parse out who actually needed the checks. I am one of the fortunate people to be secure in my finances and retired. I gave a thousand dollars of my check to food bank. Because i absolutely felt did not belong to me. I did receive stimulus check. But i never needed a stimulus check. I've been so to have and keep my job this year and i really wish that this time around a bigger bump would be given to people who need it jason. What do you make those critiques. At the first round of stimulus checks it just wasn't targeted enough. You know at a time. Like this is a trade off between targeting. Well in which case you're going to end up missing a lot of people who actually need money 'cause we can't target perfectly and being a bit overly broad the idea. The first time around the idea this time around was to earn on the side of being. You know overly broad looking at a family. Who's making sixty or seventy thousand dollars. Even if they haven't been affected by this that you know an extra thousand dollars or two might help out. Maybe they have more childcare needs this year. Maybe there's an additional source of income. They used to have That they've now lost their hours have been cut back a lot of situations that we just can't perfectly target are way too. And so policymakers made the choice. I think it was the right choice to do. Two things one of very targeted thing for people who've lost their jobs that's the larger part of this per month and then another thing which is like the belt and suspenders approach to catch everyone else. Well we got this email from someone who says people are hungry griping about someone who may not need the six hundred dollars reduces the fact that people need that money and rebecca tweets. Not much can be done with the so called stimulus. It won't even pay my mortgage. I don't know why they didn't just meet in the middle months ago and gr tweet. Six hundred dollars is what rich people read. Party leaders majority of senators from both sides of the aisle. Think the working poor and middle classes. See a lot money. It's insulting any. What do we know about what happens. When you give people money directly. What do they do with it. So we had a great example of this this year in the cares act which included both aid targeted at people who lost jobs or lost hours right. Because you can also get you. I if you've just lost some work losing all of your job and we also had this cash that went out and so what what do people tend to do with that cash. They mostly do what they were doing before. They just do a little bit more so they spend more on groceries. They might spend more on child care And we saw that some people were able to pay down debt. And as rachel pointed out people developed a savings buffer that they never had. So you know this summer and fall. I had so many conversations with people who said that after that direct stimulus check plus the six hundred dollar. Ui boost which for most people was much much much bigger and more important to them. They finally had some financial breathing room. Some cases for the first time in their life despite it being a really desperate situation and having lost work and so i think that we actually have this great object lesson in in the good that the government can do by just sending people cash as opposed to doing something more complicated That requires you know. More input from that person requires them to apply and that that would be something more like tanith which is our cash welfare program which comes with a lot of strings attached. Eric asks on twitter. I'm really interested in more details about the expanded e. I. t. c. That's the earned income tax credit child tax credit. I heard they were boosting. These does this mean they will be bigger or more accessible to those who were on unemployment all year and he. What can you tell us about that. Yeah so Expanding the earned income tax credit and child tax credit is. Something that has had bipartisan support. for for a long time and the one thing that i would note about the expansions is that because they come through the tax code They they wouldn't be more immediate form of stimulus now But one thing to point out that that that that that might be expanded is that it would be really really great to help who have faced. Expanded care costs In this really difficult year. Which a lot of people have Since they've had their kids at home or they might have seen their daycare centers. close And so i would have to look through the tax now to see if there were any. It or cd changes in this bell. But i do think that that's that's something to look at it as an area. Again of sort of bipartisan agreement. Going forward we asked what you need it right now instead of a stimulus check. And here's what she had to say. Hi my name is meghan. Meet emma i live in chicago illinois. My biggest need right now is childcare. My husband and i have been fortunate enough to keep our jobs during the pandemic However we have not been able to send our boys ages four years old preschool aged and Nine months to care so we have been making do Having a nanny in our home horror that has caused her childcare expense to increase by about two hundred percent compared to what we were spending last year. Hi my name is amanda. i'm calling from chicago. A second round the stimulus checks would be great. But what i what we really need is a paycheck protection. Plan my hours and my pay work for my full job And i really think that being able to protect workers An employee's is more important than a second rounder stimulus. Check megan amanda. Thanks for leaving us. Those voicemails rachel. You're a mother of six yourself so you can understand how big of an issue childcare is become during the pandemic but what are some of the ways. The government can address the challenge of childcare. Right now yeah and this is tough. I'm in a situation where our daycare center is closed. Maybe we'll open in january but we haven't had anything any type of childcare. The two year olds drying on the walls with sharpies But i think that there are some ways. That policymakers this is really more of a local level. Because that's where childcare is regulated. I think there's some things they can do to help. Parents and one of those would be getting rid of the unnecessary regulations. That are out there. That don't actually add to the quality of care. We've seen the number of small home. Providers cut by half over the last twelve years in these are the providers that are significantly less expensive than the large daycare centers in. They're also the types of providers that families would feel more comfortable right now dropping off somewhere in the neighborhood where you know that there's only two or three other children i'm they're not going to be exposed to as many people on so that's definitely one thing to do. You could also make head store. Start money portable Allow families to use their five twenty nine plans to pay for childcare. So there's a lot of things out there that could help families. But i think that it's more the state and local level because they are in charge of childcare g and we heard amanda bring up paycheck protection in that voice. Mail is that something that's included in the second stimulus package yes. There's a substantial expansion of the paycheck protection plan that the plan designed to keep people employed and paid on the job. I personally think the bunch of the money ends up going to the owners of businesses. And so you're giving some amount of money to the owners is a bribe and money to the employees but you know it definitely will have the effect of keeping more people on the job and more people getting paid. Well we got this e mail in our inbox. It says i understand the concept of stimulus as opposed as opposed to need but there are people really hurting out there that need more than one. Time payment the fallout from people becoming homeless as a cascading effect that will increase the number of people in poverty and fuel the pandemic because social distancing in a shelter is not ideal to say the least. I really appreciate your attention to this huge problem with the safety net system in the us. We also got this tweet from laura. She says the stimulus check helped many people who had little or no income. Your guest on the program said that it would have been better spent on tests than direct checks. She's wrong it should have included testing. But many are in food lines rachel. What's your response to the idea. That the priority right now should be helping people. Stay afloat yeah. I think that we do need to provide the more targeted assistance to be focused on the people who are out there who are hurting who've lost their jobs in their incomes in not providing blanket checks to everybody out there when a lot of people don't need that additional money as some of those viewers have commented and so. That's where i think that it would be better for state and local governments to be stepping in. I know in my local county. There are various programs of rental assistance out there. There are food distribution sites on the federal government has added nutrition assistance. There's a rental assistance. That's going directly to the states to help them with that. And so i agree we need to be making more targeted provisions. And that's where you know getting the money coming from the state and local governments. That know what those needs are. Better than policymakers in washington is the right solution. Well nancy emails. I work in sales and lost my job for three months during the lockdown in massachusetts since being back businesses not been the same. And i've had to put some of my utilities on credit cards. I'm not in a huge amount of debt. But i'm young and the thought of debt piling up makes me incredibly nervous. I'll be using my stimulus. Check to pay off some of those bills and sleep a little easier at night. We're discussing the second stimulus package with jason furman. A professor of the practice of economic policy at harvard university. Also with us as rachel bressler. She's a research fellow in economics budget entitlements at the heritage foundation a conservative think tank in washington. Dc and annie lowrey. She writes about economic policy for the atlantic. I'm jen white. We'll hear more from you and our guests in a moment support for this podcast and the following message come from simplisafe home. Security simplisafe has an arsenal of sensors and cameras. That protect every inch of your home. Simplisafe has your back. Twenty four seven with professional monitoring for breaking fire flooding or medical emergencies. You can easily set it up yourself in about thirty minutes. Get a free home security camera when you purchase a simplisafe system at simplisafe dot com slash. Npr one a you also get a sixty day. Risk trial hip. Hop and america's prisons have both grown exponentially. Is this a coincidence. Or is it by design. I'm madden listen now to lower than a right. The new podcast from npr music where we trace the collision of rhyme and punishment in america. All eleven episodes are available right now. Go binge it now. It's back to our conversation about the stimulus package with jason furman. He's a professor of the practice of economic policy at harvard university. Also with us as rachel bressler. She's a research fellow in economics budget and entitlements at the heritage foundation a conservative think tank in washington dc and anti lowering. She writes about economic policy for the atlantic. And we heard from a few of you about what you make of the us financial response to the pandemic as compared to other countries. The way the government is treated citizens with respect to the stimulus is is horrible. Canada and most european countries have given their citizens monthly support. Canada gave you know. On average their citizens two thousand dollars per month a one time check of twelve hundred dollars to cover the period from april through december is is just unconscionable i did receive the first two meals check and i was able to pay part of my rent with that and i do think that we need another stimulus check. They we need multiple stimulus check. I see other countries giving monthly amount. And i think that that is what needs to happen for the people who are struggling right now any i. What do we know about how the first round of stimulus checks helped americans who were in danger of falling below the poverty line as well as those who did fall below that line i during the pandemic and in what happened when the money ran out. Yeah so we do actually have some kind of initial Data showing what happened here and really remarkably despite the very large unusual recession that we had the government managed to prevent poverty from increasing. And that's because of what. Jason pointed out earlier. We actually replaced all of that lost income for people both through the checks and really importantly through those payments which in some ways i think are more important but but a little bit get overlooked but the problem was that the money kind of started running out for people. A lot of people who are lower income didn't have much buffer. Now you know they they if you. I am expired as it would have. If congress hadn't come to this deal people really. It could have been really really bad economically. But i really think that the cares act did remarkably well to shore people up now other countries have done things differently but the united states passed a bigger stimulus then all of our peer countries pretty much except for canada and australia. And i think that we learned that that worked really really well. I mean that's part of the reason that we actually haven't seen as big of a gdp decline as some of our peer countries even if they have someone lower unemployment rates and so i think there were a lot of lessons to learn from the cares act about about how just direct cash to people can can help. And when you say you why you're referring to unemployment insurance just wanna make sure that's clear jason when you look at the. Us response as compared to some other countries. What do you think it says. More broadly about our approach to economic policy an important by canada gave the two thousand dollars. A month was only for unemployed workers so it was analogous to the six hundred dollars a week that we did as a bonus for unemployed workers moreover two thousand canadian dollars so we did actually a lot more for unemployed workers per month than and candidate did to get to that example. What we learned from this about the united states is that we can do something big but we can also just completely completely dysfunctionally Mess up the cares came together very quickly and was very large. It then ended at the end of july and it took another five months to pass another bill and that type of political dysfunction that you get with polarization with divided government is something that you don't see nearly as much in many of the other countries around the world which have had a more consistent response rachel your thoughts about the state of wages in in the us. Because i think you possible to argue that the problem isn't so much you know people getting paid extra. As it is the fact that a lot of people were grossly underpaid before the pandemic and when we look at the economic fallout of this pandemic the people who are hardest hit or women african american people people who are already struggling and were struggling before this hit right and so we want people to have income opportunities for those to be opportunities that provide upward mobility for them to move ahead. And so what are some ways. That policymakers can do that. You know eliminating unnecessary licensing restrictions. It shouldn't be that you have to have hundreds of hours and pay for expensive education in order to be able to arrange flowers in your homer to hair You know we shouldn't be setting artificially high minimum wages that you know maybe fifteen dollars per hour. That might seem that. Might not seem like a great wage to somebody. But if you're that high school or in alabama who wants a job to get your foot in the door that's gonna lead to something bigger in the long run you don't to shut out those opportunities and we also certainly don't want to of kill this independent work That's increasing out there. California essentially tried to prevent people from being their own bosses. It's not just gig workers but it's really anybody who wants to work for themselves by passing this law which was partially repealed by voters. But we need to keep the doors open because the labor forces changing There will be new types of work that are gonna be made available and we want those to be opportunities for people instead of shutting the door and trying to force them into the jobs that used to exist Fifty years ago and just to be clear we talk about that fifteen dollars an hour minimum wage. That adds up to about just over. Thirty one thousand dollars A year jason. Your thoughts about the state of wages because i hear a lot of focus being put on sort of entrepreneurial work or or gig work but what about companies what what corporations have here in making wages more compatible and rather competitive and ensuring that people have wage. Yeah so over. The roughly five years up until the pandemic we saw the largest wage gains at the bottom of the distribution and there were two reasons for that one was a tight labor market as the unemployment rate fell further and further. I'm falling as low as three and a half percent and the second is that states and cities that covered the majority of workers in this country. raised their minimum wages in some cases i'm quite substantially and so those are the two steps we need going forward getting the unemployment rate back down again as quickly as possible. The best way to do that is the vaccine. But once people are vaccinated they're going to need to have money to spend otherwise. You can reopen a restaurant and no one will come. This bill should help a lot with making sure. The demand is there and then i'm raising the minimum wage at the federal level. To catch up with and you know level the and raise the floor across the range of states. would be another very good step to raise wages. We got this message from a member of the one. Eight techs club she says. I'm behind on rent and other bills. I was working in a nursing home. And i was infected with covid an isolated for fourteen days living in my car. The nursing home owners gave me no help. I tried going back but started getting sick again and decided to take it. Slow having no job with four kids. It's been difficult. It's so sad that the government won't help. The larger corporations suck the juice while we poor people suffer in limbo. I just can't hold back my tears. How america has led its people down is shameful anti. We heard earlier from someone who suggested the conversation about the stimulus. Packages is really a conversation about the us not having sufficient safety net. Would we be in a different place. If some of these programs were just in place all the time in not just during a crisis yeah and you know so first of all to that that caller to isolate from your family in your car To not be able to work because you got sick. Maybe got long cove ed. We've heard so many of those stories and really the virus has affected people in such complicated ways. And i think that one thing that we've actually pointed to and part of the reason that people have been demanding rental assistance and really focusing on wages and these other issues that you know there was. There was a lot of folks at cost of living crisis that that despite the really good economy they came into it. That's where we're rent wasn't affordable healthcare wasn't affordable and people felt like they were never going to be able to stop working because they would never save enough for retirement and there. I feel like it's it's really complicated. Structural issues in the economy. That that you might want politics to address right getting everybody decent safe housing and getting our population safe housing. You know that's that's a crisis that we came into this crisis with and is going to require complicated solutions to but i do think that for the families that were strained. This has been really hard year. Even if they haven't lost work and having gotten sick very very briefly. We've got about thirty seconds here. Jason and rachel. I want to hear from both of you. What should the biden administration's top economic priorities be in in two thousand twenty one in regards to the pandemic jason first of all controlling the pandemic itself. But once you've done that. Investments and things like infrastructure to create jobs over a multi year period and also fixing the social safety net. Health care paid. Leave unemployment insurance. There was completely inadequate going into this crisis. Rachel yes addressing immediate health needs. I think this rapid testing could help more businesses and people get back to normal and then we need to be focusing on you know the targeted economic needs and keeping opportunities open so that people can have jobs and earn a livelihood and finally we've got to pay attention to our debt because the problem with debt crises cases. They seem like it's sustainable. Until one day it's not and then it's too late to implement gradual reforms. That's rachel bressler. She's a research fellow in economics budget and entitlement to the heritage foundation a conservative. Think also with us. Jason furman professor of the practice of economic policy at harvard university and former top economic advisor to president obama. An anti lowery staff writer at the atlantic and author of give people money how a universal basic income would in poverty revolutionized work and remake the world. Thanks to you. All today's producer was haley blasingame. This program comes to you from w. amu part of american university in washington distributed by npr. I'm jen white. Thanks for listening and let's talk more soup. This is one.

Jason furman jen white rachel dressler heritage foundation harvard university washington atlantic jason obama jason npr
Jay Shambaugh on the tools to fight the next recession

FT Alphachat

42:56 min | 2 years ago

Jay Shambaugh on the tools to fight the next recession

"Capital. One is building a better Bank. One that feels nothing like a typical Bank. It's why they've reimagined banking and built something completely different Capital One. Cafes they offer checking accounts with no fees, or minimums and savings accounts with one of the best savings rates in America. This is banking reimagined with your needs in mind. Open an account today at any Capital, One location or online in five minutes, and experienced banking. Reimagined for yourself Capital One. What's in your wallet Capital, One NA member? FDIC. We know that recessions are inevitable. They can be caused by any number forces such as financial market crashes cuts to consumer spending, or shifting oil prices, eventually Konami stops expanding and begins to contract. But what if no makers could pasta meals legislation today, that would automatically kick in when some of the early signs of a slowdown start to appear before unemployment and GDP growth plummet stimulus that cuts the recession off at its knees? So it's shorter and more. Shallow. This is L fa- Chattanooga it from the financial times, and the road center for international economics and finance at Brown University. I'm Isabela Kamensko economist, FT contributor, Megan green recently spoke to Jay Shambaugh about how ready the US economy is to fight the next recession. Jay is a professor of economics, an international fezzet George Washington University in DC and a senior economics pillow at the Brookings Institution. Recently lead teams at the Hamilton project and the Washington center for equitable growth and compiling a book called recession ready, Jay's a big proponent of so-called automatic fiscal stabilizes. He started off by telling Megan about the government response to the great recession when he was a senior economic adviser to the Abacha administration is Jay. So I think one thing to think of is just that the great recession started in December of two thousand seven and there were some very early kind of moves to, to send checks out to people if people remember kind of in, in early two thousand eight but the really big fiscal response was, was ARA the American recovery, and reinvestment act or kind of what people think of as the stimulus act. And that didn't actually come intil late February of two thousand eight so it's well over a year after the recession has started that we finally get kind of a big discretionary fiscal push, where congress says, hey, this is a problem. We need something new. And, you know, the reason it was so delayed is pretty obvious. When you think of US politics, which is once it becomes clear. The recessions there, you have a lame duck president with only a few months left, then you have an election and then you have a new president who's not actually in yet. So it's not like you can pass something new in December of two thousand eight. So finally, you get a new president and you get a big discretionary push and so that Bill included tax cuts. It included aid to states it included money for transportation spending all sorts of things to try to push money into the economy, either through lowering taxes or spending the money or just giving money to individuals or states. But that was what we think of as a discretionary policy. There were also automatic policies going on. You know you had things like snap or what used to be called food stamps. More people are eligible once more people are losing their jobs, and so you're spending more money. They're more money through unemployment insurance, things like that. But I think the great recession really did highlight the challenge of getting the timing right. Because if the business cycle doesn't just happen to conveniently coincide with our political cycles. It can be hard to get things right. Surely, both Democrats and Republicans at the time wanted to respond to massive recession. Is it just that we didn't know how big the recession was or? The political process was so incredibly gummed up going into election. It was impossible to agree on anything even if it was in everybody's best interest. So I think it's twofold there, I think you're right. Part of it is early on. It's just hard to say how bad things are. So, you know, they did cut those initial stimulus checks in two thousand eight but then at that point, I think it really did turn into the second point your make, which is just the politics. There's no way you're going to have with everyone running for office with the president on his way out with a new president coming in. You're not going to have a big stimulus passed it just I don't think I think everyone acknowledged that was going to be something the next administration would do. And so that just meant you lose, you know, a number of months, even half a year from when maybe you could have done something. And so, I agree everybody thinks maybe you should do something. But the other thing that then kicks in is not everyone agrees how to do it. Right. So both sides might say we should do something, but you might have one side saying. Let's worry about our social safety net and let's worry about how we're getting making sure people are being cushioned from this and other people might say, no, let's focus on, you know, incentives for businesses and tax cuts there. And so you can just you can have differences in opinion on what to do. And that can really slow down any kind of discretionary response, where congress has to act. Congress doesn't necessarily act incredibly quickly. It's not really the, the setup of the US political system to do that at setup actually, to have a bunch of checks and balances so things. Don't move too fast. I know you've argued now's a good time to think about their response. We might have to fight the next recession partly because it's sort of peacetime writes, the economy's doing. Well, it's really strong. Yeah. But this week has been pretty volatile rates. It's been trade. Mania we're looking to ramp up a multi-front trade were sued using net. Is now a good time to do. It is the economy really strong. I think now is a good time in part because the you know, we're not. Recession now the economy's. Okay now but as you mentioned, there are things out there that are making people wonder markets are starting to price in that the next move will be a fed rate cut not a rate hike. People are starting to realize that at some point expansions end and that there are enough things out there. Whether it straight wars, or anything else that could be the bump that sends the economy down a little bit more. And so it does seem like a good time for people to say, hey, you know how do we want to approach this there? There's some sort of advantage also from kind of a veil of ignorance, like you don't know who's going to be in power when the next recession strikes, you don't know who it's going to hurt. And so in some ways, it feels like it's a good time for everyone to say, okay. I don't know if it's gonna be me or you who takes the political hit when there's a recession, but neither one of us wants to. So let's just come together now and safeguard the economy and minimize the damage that people are going to see because I think that's one of the real fundamental premises. We took two. The book was recessions happen, and they're really bad and makers really should take as one of their key charges to minimize the damage that economic downturns impose on people. You mentioned that there's talk of fed rate cuts now. And so that doesn't underlie this idea that the fed often steps in to address a downturn. I know some people have talked about central banks being the only game in town. But you're looking at fiscal policy measures. So how come you're putting the onus on the government rather than just relying on the fed slipping through two reasons. I think one is that for a long time. Many communists have argued fiscal policies and important secondary tool. There are certainly some people said, we'll just let the fed do its job and we don't worry. But I also think the last ten years have just given us a treasure trove of data and a lot of great analysis, that's been done showing just how effective countercyclical fiscal policy can be, especially if. You're in a deep downturn. But there's a second far more practical issue, which is in the last seven recessions in the United States. The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates at least five percentage points during the downturn I feel really safe betting today. They're not going to do it the next downturn because we're sitting at at whatever two point four right now. And if people think this is the peak that the next move is down, then they don't have five points to cut. And so I think you know, we're in a world with lower equilibrium interest rates for a while. We're gonna hit the zero lower bound or effective, lower bound more often, and we need to make sure fiscal policies ready to step in and help the fed. And so that's not to say the fed is powerless once interest rates get two zero. I'm I am a believer that, you know, the things the fed was doing were helpful, but I think even people who took those actions, and believe, really strongly in the actions, the fed took once interest rates, Scott zero we'll just openly say things like. Quantitative easing or forward guidance aren't direct substitutes for rate cuts. They're not quite the same. They're not quite as powerful and in times when you're faced with using those tools, it would be really helpful to have fiscal policy. Kind of sharing the load. He and I think the feds kinda willing to accept that themselves given they're doing this huge rethink on their own monetary policy framework to see how they can perform better when they're at the lower bound. So I think they would confess that as well. I also wonder you know, monetary policy really kicks him with lags. So it's this kind of interesting little thing, where, you know, the fiscal policy may take longer to enact, but once you enacted, it may be operating faster and on the other hand monetary policy, you can typically, you know, you can move faster, you know, the fed could cut rates one hundred basis points tomorrow. If it wanted to. And so, you know it could move really quickly. But then that the impact of that policy might take longer. And so, I think one. One of the ideas behind bolstering, automatic stabilisers is to say, we want to make sure that we take out some of that political lag. We take out some of the figuring not just political, but even just figuring out what to do lag. And then they're even honestly the things that I think most of us, don't even think about until you're actually trying to craft some of these policies, which are things like you need to figure out how to Recode the programs that actually cut the cheques to increase the checks. If you're going to say, let's increase everybody's unemployment insurance payments by a bit. If you made that decision today, you couldn't do it tomorrow. It would take some time administratively. But if you made the decision today that when we have a recession you want to do it. You could be ready so that once the recession kicks in, you're just doing it automatically one of the, the big issues of our time is inequality in the feds often blamed for sort of driving inequality with its response to the last crisis. What about automatic stabilisers? Do they have a mitigating affect on inequality or? Are they also contributors? I think it depends on which one and how you do it. And so if you're doing things like payroll tax cuts, for example, that's something where money's gonna go to everybody. But the more money you're earning the bigger tax cut. You're getting things like that. So you could see how it it depends on how you look at it on the other hand, the social safety net is our most powerful automatic stabiliser unemployment insurance and snap are probably to the best automatic stabilisers. We have right now. And so those are things where money is going both to individuals. And then because of that to communities that are hurting. And so they really are very well, targeted so one of the things we tried to do in this book was to think about different policies that could fit together that you could think of these, as certain policies are going to hit some types of households other policies might hit other types of households and so that you don't wanna put kind of all your fiscal stimulus into one program. You'd rather. Rather kind of spread it out across a range of programs to make sure you really touching different communities in different individuals. And I do think it's really important to make sure we both bolster and importantly, not destroy in some sense. The social safety net aspect of this, because that is one way to really make sure the fiscal automatic stabilisers are pushing back against inequality and really targeting the money, where it needs to go. Save mentioned a couple of kinds of automatic fiscal stabiliser snap that taxes. Sim unemployment insurance in those all kind of adjusts, based on what's already happening in the economy. What other categories of fiscal stabilisers are automatic stabilisers are there? So there are other things that we in some sense, have always done on a discretionary basis that we could make automatic. I think is one way to think of it. So in the last two recessions, we've recognized the fact that state's budgets, get hit really hard intercession. They wind up then firing people or cutting back. Pending, and so you get this kind of really pro-cyclical element from fiscal policy from the states. And so in the last two recessions, we've tried to offset that a little bit by having the federal government pick up a little bit more of the Medicaid costs that states are paying during a recession that's something that's required. An act of congress. Both times it, obviously therefore comes in with a bit of a delay. It means states don't know if the money's going to be there or not until finally things get passed so that we have a proposal from Jason firm, and Matfield, learn Willie Powell in the book that just says, look, we've done this for the last two times, it's a really effective way to try to help states out and keep them from firing. Teachers keeping them from firing police officers and also keeping them from cutting back on their healthcare spending at a time when families need it most. And so they design a program to just make that automatic based on what's happening in the economy and happening in the state. So you could think of kind of autumn stabilisers that just ebb and flow. And then. The other ones that you, you need to design triggers for that. You would say, let's make sure this comes on all at once if we hit a recession and that proposal using what, what's called f map the federal share of Medicaid spending is, I think one that, that shows a lot of promise, just because that's it's something we've done before congress knows how it works states know how it work, and it could really help prevent some of the kind of follow on affects we get in a recession when states themselves start cutting back and just to clarify state. Start cutting back is that because they've got balanced budget rules or is it because they're rainy day funds, or so, small, or do they just not have the room. It's the, it's exactly right. They, they have balanced budget rules and their rainy-day funds. They can use those for a little while, but not long enough, and so in a really short recession it may not be that big a problem because, you know, by the time states are kind of exhausting. Their rainy-day funds. Maybe things are picking back up, but especially in a longer recession. And we. Saw this in the great recession, even when the recession is technically over, but the unemployment rate is still really high that, and, you know, the economy has started to grow again. But the states are just now, kind of running out of their, their room on, on the rainy day fund and unemployment is high. So their revenues are down and Dave then kind of have the second shock to the economy where they start laying off people or they won't hire anyone. And so you really want to try to take that element out states were real drag in two thousand ten eleven twelve in the US Connie on just the business cycle, and you you'd like to not have them do that in the future. If you can provide them, the right type of support, and does it matter with spark the downturn because it could be financial crisis that could be oil prices. So do you need to have some degree of flexibility in terms of addressing the immediate cause or is it just important enough that you're dressing the symptoms like higher unemployment? That, that's a great question. I think one of the things we, we've tried to be careful when we talk about the book is to say, we're not saying you wouldn't. Do anything on a discretionary basis. And I think your question really points to that, that the depending on what the recession looks like and what's generating it, you may want to add certain types of programs to what's going on in your fiscal policy to, to really kind of address the root cause, but on the other hand, there are some simple patterns that we see in recessions. And, you know, one of those consumers cut back a lot every time, there's a recession people's, either their jobs or worry about losing their jobs, and they spend less, and since consumption is in a close to seventy percent of spending in the economy, when consumers cut back. You know, that's what really pushes us into a deeper downturn. And that's why one of the other proposals in the book is, is this proposal by Claudia psalm to just trigger automatic payments households just to try to cushion them a little bit. We've done it on a discretionary basis. We did it in two thousand eight we did it in two thousand one. Sometimes we label them tax rebates. Sometimes we label them. Stimulus payments. It doesn't really matter what you call them. It's basically sending checks to people. And when they get that check, we've got lots of good evidence that they spend them, and this is one where it just by cork of administrative capacity. We, we literally can't mail checks to every American on the same day. So in the both the two thousand one in two thousand eight stimulus they mailed them out in order of the first digit of your social security number. And so, you, you actually could see how people behaved because some people were getting money and right away in some people weren't getting it for ten weeks and what you're able to see was how they responded with their consumption, and it really does help the economy. It does help out as you say against the symptom. That, that's not dealing anything about the cause, but what it saying is, when we had a, downturn people are going to spend less, and we'd like to keep them from doing that. We'd like to make sure we can a cushion things for them and be cushioned the their cutbacks impact on the economy. And so one. One of the crucial things I think, in terms of saying, we'll, let's make this automatic is, you know, you need to figure out when to cut the checks, and I do think that's one of the really interesting contributions of Claudius proposal is developing this rule of just saying, look, if what we need to know is when the unemployment rate starts rising. That's when you're in trouble. It's not that it's at a high level as the -sarily, it's when it's rising. And so we can turn around and look. And she kind of did a lot of satirical work that showed. It's basically if the three month moving average of the unemployment rates, you wanna take that to smooth out any weird blips, but if that number is half a point higher than its recent low, then you're intercession right now. It has already started and this rule works, really, well, it, it has always called the re since nineteen seventy it's always called the recessions accurately pretty quickly far in advance of things like waiting for GDP to be negative two quarters in a row or things like that. And so it. One of the things we thought was important about this. Is it shows? It's not just that automatic stabilisers are a good idea. You can do them. It is practical to think that we can set these things up. Some of them just ebb and flow with the economy, like unemployment insurance. But we can also develop triggers that would turn on and turn off at the right time. And, and I think that's an important thing for, for policymakers to understand is, they don't have to do this on the fly every time we have the data we know how to work it. We actually can design these things to kind of take some of that burden off them so that they can do it. You said, which is well, maybe they need to do something extra because of what the particular recession looks like. And I had to say this identification of a trigger that we could use to really quickly say that we're in a recession that the psalm rural now it's called a seems like a game changer. I mean you and me accepted, j I think most economists are terrible at forecasting both recessions and recoveries. So it does seem really interesting that we figured out. A way to figure out really quickly if we're in a recession without waiting for the NBA are to come out year leader and identify it as a recession. Now, you mentioned cloudy, Osama's focused on unemployment as trigger can you say a little bit about why unemployment is such a useful indicator for us being in a recession. I think there are few reasons I think on the one hand it's, it's timely. So, you know, it will we get the data very quickly on it. So GDP comes out with a lag GDP is revised quite a bit. If you're waiting for a signal from GDP you're going to be waiting for a while. And that's not to say it's a useless statistic or you don't want to focus on it, but it's not going to be the one you used to kind of trigger policy in a timely way on the other hand, the unemployment rate comes out quickly. It's pretty consistent. It's revised very little so you can trust that real time signal one of the things that I find interesting is people worry a lot about the unemployment rate as a signal of health in the economy. They were. Worry that well as the unemployment rate is falling. And, you know, say is in particular, in, in this business cycle, once the unemployment rate got to five percent. There were many people frankly, I would agree with them who said, well, that doesn't mean that the labor market is done healing, lots of people had left the labor market. And so we don't want to we can worry about whether the unemployment rate is a good signal of full employment. But this other direction the change in the unemployment rate an increase in. It is a really just consistently accurate signal that things are spiraling down quickly. And so, I think that's why it's such a good trigger and we're looking for triggers to let us know that were already interests session. You know, is that what we've identified as the best conditions under which to have atomatic stabilisers kick in or there conditions under which automated stabilisers are ideal. I think what I would say is it's nice that we have some stabilisers that are smooth. Right. This idea that, you know, even as the unemployment rate starts to creep up a little. Bit long before you would say have a trigger call it that it's a recession your automats going to be doing a little bit more, right? And if any one person loses their job, they quit paying taxes immediately. So we have some aspects of the system that just are very smooth. And, you know, the, the food stamp or snap program, you know, as people's incomes go down, or they lose their job. They're just automatically able to switch over and and get resources via snap. So we have some programs that are smooth. But then if we think that there's something different about once a recession starts, the confidence effects, the that we want to try to jolt the economy back. That's I think, when you would want to try to use some sort of trigger to kind of do something more than just have these smooth stabilisers as well. Now, when I think of fiscal stimulus measures Bradley in as I walk down a street in central Boston, and can't get a cell signal, I think of infrastructure spending. And so is there some aspect of automatic stabilisers that can be linked to infra? Spending, and I knew a big criticism of infrastructure spending is always that we don't have any shovel ready projects. Even if we've got the funding to support them so is are we to address that as well? I think there is so anyhow, it who's an economist at the New York fed wrote a proposal for us. And this is something I've been thinking about for a long time, Andy, and I actually served together on a National Academy panel that was thinking about how can transportation spending be used as stimulus. And that was very focused on this idea of can you do it in a discretionary way. Can it be timely enough does it help, but it really did make a lot of us think? Can we do something better than that? And so any proposal builds off a program called build it used to be the tiger program, which is something that started in, in our, and it was a program that basically said, look states have all these projects, they want to do, they can apply to the federal government, and the federal government will basically pick the best ones. It will look for the ones that have the best cost-benefit ratio. Oh, the ones that will be kind of transformative infrastructure. And then the federal government will fund those programs the nice thing about this. Is it means the states are already considering doing these things they've already gotten the permiting they've already designed things, so they are, in fact, a lot closer to shovel ready than you might think what Andy's proposal is to say. Well, if we have this program going all the time, which we now do and his suggestion as if you start if that program were two billion dollars a year every year. Right. And so states are just constantly designing these programs designing proposals submitting the federal government every year. And then it would basically say, look, if we get a recession then suddenly, you just fund more. You know, you just say, hey, we normally would have funded two billion this year, but we're gonna fund ten billion instead and just push more money out the door. And again, these are projects that should be ready to go. And these are projects that states want to do and you you're still doing the cost benefit analysis. It's just really saying let's try to introduce a little bit of cow. Cyclicality into our infrastructure spending, and there's really no reason. We couldn't do that to just do it. More broadly and other programs, possibly his suggestion is to start this relatively small and see if it seems like it works. And if it works, you could scale it up quite a bit. Is that all public funding? Urs is private funding involved as well, because it might be harder to get private funding in downturn. Exactly. So this is purely an idea using public funding. It's not kind of a Bank setup because the same worries as you mentioned, you might worry about trying to get private partners in during the downturn might be harder. It's instead trying to say, look the firms themselves the construction firms are usually slack at that moment. So any concern you have about kind of crowding out private activity is usually pretty much not there during a recession. And so if you've got unemployed construction workers or construction firms that are thinking of firing workers because they just don't have enough projects. This is when we want to do more, and then he balances it by saying that once the economy's doing really well. You just kind of scale back and don't do as much for a few years as states kind of rebuild the shelf in a sense of projects, that they would want to see funded during downturn, the proposals that are in this book, that you shepherded are all be sending already exist rate. And I presume that was just for political feasability in terms of actually implementing them. But if you had to start with a blank slates, and you could put anything in front of congress and wave magic wand, and have them except it is there, anything any proposals that we haven't talked about that, you think are politically difficult, but actually might just be really effective, so anything that doesn't exist at all that you would push then. So great question. I mean you're right. It was it was some combination of political feasibility, and from our view just wanting to be really rigorously evidence-based to say, we can look at things either were already doing and find ways to do them better. Or we can look at things that we always do and make them on. Attic. And so that was kind of the organizing principle behind the book, but there are a lot of other things out there that I've seen people suggest I'd say the, the one we haven't talked about that is in the book is to use Tanna for a temporary assistance, needy families as actually a kind of job subsidy, when you hit a recession that is something that was done with some emergency Tanith money in ARA. But it it's something that we don't really do a lot of. And so that's one I think that kind of blurs into this edge of I do think some direct hiring and you know direct provision of jobs. Whether it's through jobs core type thing or whether it's through Tanith or whether it's through a broader policy. I think the idea that we just don't have enough labor demand during a downturn. And we need to figure out ways to employ people productively, either by subsidizing the private sector for people who are hard to employ or by figuring out ways to employ people productively. I think that's an important one. But I think there are a lot of things I've seen people mentioned. So we're talking about. Helping states out with their Medicaid costs. You could also see that in every downturn states cutback their higher education spending, because it's kind of this fungible thing, let's just raise the fees, and let's, let's have less grant money going towards our, our state schools. Well, you could kind of have the same program where you could say you have the federal government kind of help out the states on their education budgets during downturns to try to make sure that they don't cut those budgets. You could even frankly get more creative and start thinking about things like automatic deferral of student debt payments or things like that in downturns, just to try to cushion people's budgets, a little bit and say, hey, you know, we realized times are tough and one way, we can help you out, is, by letting you just, you know, take a year off from paying your student at payments. So I think there are a lot of things you could add to this type of program, and I think, certainly, you're still going to need some discretionary policy almost no matter what I think also the. Thing I would add, is depending what you've done with your corporate tax policy, and we kind of stayed away from that because it's so influx right now with, you know, just from reforms went through, and then people propose, encounter reforms, you, you certainly could imagine things that we often have expensing rules or things like that, that let firms deduct any investment costs immediately, and I think having I think there are proposals just to make that standing policy or at often gets put in and then extended, but if that warrant standing policy making that policy during a downturn to try to incentivize firms to invest during downturns and not have them holding back. I think that's one of the other ones that, you know, isn't in the book that would make sense. Yeah. Okay. So that expensing piece was supposed to encourage investment this time around in these inked that maybe it hasn't because it's not permanent. And so that's what you're saying making permanent might actually spark. We'll, you know inferior the temporary should spur it more right? Because it should say, hey, you're only getting this tax break. If. If you do the investment in the next two years. So, you know, act now I think it was more that the downturn was deep enough that, you know, just the capital, the output ratios were higher than they'd been. You know, firms didn't feel the need to invest and then even coming out of it. I think part of it, honestly, was just they had a lot of cheap options in the labor market. So it's not like they needed to emphasize productivity because they could just hire more workers without having to pay a lot more, I think eventually once labor markets, titan enough. You should see more on the investment side, just because they're going to want to start to conham is on labor zoo, automatic stabilisers seem to be as a Keynesian economists, they seem to be kind of a no brainer. Such sort of something everyone should like the problem, I guess is maybe had a pay for it. So the implications for higher deficit in a bigger debt burden or a concern. But are there really any fiscal hawks laughed and mean do we really need to worry about this? Now, do you think that the higher cost of it? I think on. The one hand, we try to argue that it's not that much higher of a cost. Right. If, if we're going to do discretionary policy anyway, just at a later point in time. So, you know, it's not time to the business cycle as well. And all that, then this is just saying let's do what we were going to do, but do it better. And in that way, it's not really increasing costs, substantially. I think the other reason actually that a fiscal hawk should like something like this is what it's trying to do is say, let's make sure we spend when we should, and we don't spend when we shouldn't, and so by having triggers that turn both on and off and making sure that we're doing things time to the business cycle appropriately but not ratcheting up spending permanently. Right. It's saying, let's spend more when we need to and then go back to normal. I actually in some ways, feel like that should be attractive to people who do worry about longer term debt paths because it shouldn't in some sense. Shift, trajectory may be a one off shift up in debt lev. Nls during a downturn. But it it shouldn't be kinda permanently ratcheting up your deficit spending, because you're going back to a normal time afterwards. Right. And I guess if you can implement these really quickly than the depths of the recession could be lessened. So it's not that they pay for themselves. But that the cost is mitigated somewhat by their affective nece. That's exactly right. And in Jason Furman, and Matt learned really pals chapter they actually did try to do a little bit of kind of a dynamic scoring type of side of this. I think the scoring question frankly, is a really interesting one because CBO has would have to score these types of things probabilistically, because, you know, if you said, you know, we do this, when the unemployment rate rises quickly well, in CBS forecast. The unemployment rate never rises quickly. So in technically would score zero right? But they, you know they're not stupid. They're recognized that, and so they have rules that they would score things probabilistically, but I don't think honestly anyone's exactly sure how an a lot. It would I think, depend on if they view these things that should be scored dynamically because if they do you're exactly right. If you if you shorten the downturn then you're helping the budget out as well. And so these things might have bigger sticker prices than the actual effective cost to the government in do you mentioned earlier something we haven't really touched on. And we've talked about how the triggers could be slow in starting the program, so we haven't really talked about triggers made in them. And I know in the last recession some governments actually responded with us charity. I'm talking to you both gun show the in Germany rather than stimulus. So if we have these automatic triggers to start these programs. How politically realistic is it to expect? Policymakers to wait until the programs are triggered off to shut them down versus just getting nervous about constantly spiraling debt. And, and shutting them down prematurely rushed me to stray into the political science side, where I, I worry about my expertise more, but. I guess what I would say is if you look at experience, the things that get turned off or all the discretionary things, and they'll never extend the discretionary things, or they fight about that, the things that we have that are currently automatic. They don't end. Right. So it's not like we shut down on employment insurance, what we did was we kept fighting over whether we should keep these discretionary extensions of unemployment insurance similarly, it's not, like we messed around with the tax system writ large. We just let the payroll tax cuts expire. So I think there's a real interest, politically to stop the discretionary stuff and say, okay, you know, we were doing this, but I we can't spend like this forever. And that's actually one of the refrains you here. Right. We can't spend like this forever. One of the advantages of automatic stabilisers is everybody knows you're not intending to write that there are triggers that are going to turn them off. And I think that becomes really important. So I, I'm glad you raise this because I actually think. As much as the trigger on is important. It really is the trigger off that strategically important. And if you look at what we did in the great recession, our fiscal response early on wasn't actually that unusual there, people think it wasn't big enough. And I think there's a good case to be made there. But it was as big as we typically do given the shock, where we were really woefully inadequate was in years, two thousand eleven twelve thirteen that time, period where, you know, we just let our expire, we did some additional things, but not as much as, as we probably needed to we had the state's cutting back. So we had all these things that were holding back a recovery when the unemployment rate was still at eight or nine percent. And so having things that would have turned off automatically, I think might have really kept us from pivoting to Australia too quickly and the refrain, you know, we're not doing this forever. I think matters. But our politicians worried about we are doing this for our tenure in, in office. Before we try to get reelected in your experience. Do you think that, that feeds into their minds given how long the last recession lasted? I think it did. And I also think it's one of those things where, you know, you pass what's labeled as a stimulus measure. It doesn't stop a recession right? It all it's trying to do is mitigate the effects of one and, you know, make it not as bad. It's really hard to campaign on a counter factual, right? Like, you know, it would have been much worse. If we hadn't done what we did. You know that's not really a big selling point politically, and I think that did just make it really hard to come back for more. And I think if you talk to the people who were there in two thousand eight nine crafting, these things, one of the things, I think a lot of people will acknowledge was the mistake was thinking, if this isn't enough, we can go back and get more. And that turned out to be a lot harder than anyone. I think guest whereas if you have it automatically what it says, is if this turns out to be a two thousand one type of recession fine. You know we. We have this little automatic thing kicks in. It's not too big. And then it turns off pretty quickly. If it turns out to be nineteen eighty two or two thousand eight you know, you don't want it shutting off too soon, really deep recessions where the unemployment rate spikes to ten percent. You don't wanna turn around and to Austria right away. And I think having it oughta Matic will kind of prevent are worse impulses in terms of suddenly, getting worried about the debt when we really should be more focused on the economy and know that we should just trust that we've got the automatic properties built in appropriately. And I know you've been talking to a lot of economists about this stuff. In fact, a lot of them were contributors in your book. I presume you've also been talking to policymakers and legislators about this stuff. And I'm curious kind of what the receptions been our legislators thinking ahead to the next recession, or are they actually more looking at tinkering with the existing automatic stabilisers, or, or undermining the maybe, so I think it's two, I think on the one hand there are people who are. Interested in this and in part, because your point about undermining that they're very worried that were undermining our auto Matic stabilisers. So, you know, I've mentioned snap a few times, as terrific automatic stabiliser. What used to be the food stamp program, putting really sponge work requirements into snap that have waivers that don't trigger early enough in a recession would basically, make it very hard for people to get those payments because they wouldn't be able to get a job because it's a recession, and so, you know, you can really worry that changes to these programs could make them less effective. You've also seen a lot of states, cutting back on the weeks of eligibility for unemployment insurance, things like that, where I would worry were taking what are effective stabilisers today, that could be better, and instead were actually making them worse. So I think there, there's clear kind of political action right now of people kind of fighting to maintain what we have in terms of stabilisers, we've certainly gotten a lot of interest and talk to people on the hill or talk to people more broadly about. The need. For more stabilisers. I think there's a question of politically. How does it happen? I think you could see smaller changes happened, just within the budget process. And those no reason you couldn't just put into a department of transportation funding Bill that the, the build program is going to spend more if the unemployment rate goes up quickly, right like that. That doesn't have to be a big triumphant automatic stabiliser Bill. It could just be part of the budget process. So some things could theoretically move, I think people who are more politically skeptical have taken an another view of what we've done here, which is to say that if we had something spelled out like this on the shelf in two thousand eight then when we passed the big stimulus act, we would have put in more automatic triggers, especially to, to deal with the phase out and it was just really hard to do that on a quick time cycle. They're actually attempts to do it, it just they couldn't get it through congress. There was no way to socialize the ideas and kind of convince people. That this made sense. So by talking about this now starting the conversation and having the conversation, it may be that during the next downturn when congress does decide to do something. Maybe they do put in a bunch of automatic triggers that will both make sure things trigger off at the right time and will then be there, kind of down the road in in the next downturn. So if no one will pass anything before a downturn. Maybe at least we've, we've made it easier to do good policy in the next downturn. So if we can't get this done in time for the next recession weaken maybe taxes ideas, onto the firefighting measures that end up adopted so that for the next recession after this one, they can kick in. Is that the idea? Yeah. And I will say the only other way I could see it happening is, if we don't have a recession in the next say, eighteen months and either party has kind of clear control politically in both the presidency in the congress. If we haven't had a recess. By January of twenty twenty one I would lay pretty good odds that will have one in that president's term, and they would be smart to pass a measures that would cushion the recession because it'll happen on their watch. So if nothing's happened by then you could see a move of people saying, you know what this is just politically smart to help ourselves out and buy some insurance, j I could talk to you about this forever. Thank you so much. Thanks so much for having me on. And for talking about this. I think it's really important stuff. And I really enjoyed the conversation. Alpha Chacha's produced by Dan, which is the road center for international economics and finance at Brown University, and Amy Kean from the financial times, please Email us at alpha chat f t dot com for any reason at all. Capital. One is building a better Bank. One that feels nothing like typical Bank. It's why reimagined banking and built something completely different Capital One. Cafes they offer checking accounts with no fees, or minimums and savings accounts with one of the best savings rates in America. This is banking reimagined with your needs in mind. Open account today at any Capital, One location or online at five minutes, and experienced banking. Reimagined for yourself Capital One. What's in your wallet Capital, One NA member? FDIC UBS, Nobel perspectives Oskar the questions that shape, our featuring on rivaled insights from brilliant, laureates. The economic sciences unpacking complexities and challenges. We face false changing biggest challenge facing the world is environment. Why do we even talk about anything else? Listen to the bulletin with UBS twenty four podcast app, and small speakers dip into a great mix videos and ought to coz UBS coma full. It's lash Nobel.

congress US fed president federal government FDIC Brown University America Jay Shambaugh Konami Jason Furman Megan green
Episode 77: Trainers making terrible videos

The Canine Paradigm

1:05:55 hr | 2 years ago

Episode 77: Trainers making terrible videos

"Wants happening in the canine industry. For all the latest news, views and expert opinions stay right here for the canine paradigm. You'll hear from industry leaders experts doyennes of the industry learned colleagues movers and shakers and the odd, Randy guest, get the latest insights and expert advice from both here and abroad from the people in the know. Now here your hosts Glenn cook and Pat steward, and I'm lofty Fulton, and I'm outta here. Hey, it's been awhile since we talked about are all my Jason Furman. Has he paid his Bill? He has paid his bills. Okay. So we should record him menu. Ed shoulder. He has a website now not he does not. Maybe he's provided a direct fund. Number people can notice her. I'll just shake now found over either. I like the way that you'll actually pretending to look whether he has. So if you wanna get any contacted Dacian you still have to do that through Facebook. It's on week dough. Quip E. I N. Z. W A. C K, Jason can hook you up with all the things you might be interested in getting the airport mills, which a lot of people getting in loving he has home Springer products. If you're into those. Yep. He has bulls laces tugs and at the moment he has a ten percent. Discount on. Okay. Non US. I products. That's pretty cool. And I believe he's got a lot of the other stuff that you can use the competing Jace, as well, such as the sleds, and these bring polls. Yeah. That's correct. Showed us while. It's all right. Taking the world by storm. Yeah. So for into that we just like train new dog having a good time. Have a chat to Jason on Facebook at on's wig dough quip. Yep. Sent him inventory via Mason Jaren. Key? Get a website Jason your bozo. Welcome back to the canine paradigm. I'm your host Pat Stewart. I'm joined in-studio by my co host, Glenn Kook. Hi, mate. Hey doing all right. You sound like you just go to an airplane. I just landed this morning. Sixteen hours flying home from America and I'm he pretty Todd. And I'm gonna lie. Yeah. You sound like you've got the airplane drunks the. Scribe. It isn't it? You feel like you so drunk, he does what to do with yourself. Got that slowness about you. Yeah. The time is going backwards on all of a sudden. How was it? Yeah, it was good. It was a good trip. You know, bunch more people at a workshop, three one these time at gen Phillies placing riverside, California. Yup. Happy will travel from all over the place was mostly sort of locals and it was good. Some really cool dogs in the working spots, people sort of put up with may talking at them for three days. Good from what I saw jen's live Facebook fade, than us, doing and lots of really good fade back and look like yet, had a good crowd IB day where the look good too. Yeah. Ryan a little bit one of the days. But yeah, it was perfect. I mean it was great. You would have been in. So doing theory that stage. Yeah, it's funny because we were basically like perfect opposite ends of the moment. The weather in California is by a willy nilly anyways, he almost exactly same as what it is he right now. We're having a Indian summer at the moment Indian winter or whatever you call it like it's winter here at the moment, or just about, but the way the here at the moment, he's t shirt with in twenty five degrees, celsius, sunny and Bain at working in a t-shirt pretty much every day, it's been too hot to wear jumper out, so. Yeah, cool mornings. But like NAS Nostra's and it was the exact same thing. So that was an easy transition. But yeah, anyway, it was that good seminar. Everybody seemed to be happy with it and everybody express it. There was something that we're going to be able to implement and take away from it all. It's interesting to me. You know, the content is pretty much the same that I'm delivering its Nipah post off, but two different crowds, and different crowds. Different areas tend to find different pots of it more interesting or more review. Feeling of the system, one. They have their own idea of what it is. And it's it's not uniformly like, Aw, that's the peso's missing. But it's different every way God's people, missing like different paces of it. But it was good. Everybody seemed happy. No on booed me off yet. So let's go still still have my winning streak. Melvin nick. So we'll say, yeah. That's going to be good. And yes, you've got the one with Alex. What? That's a good question. I don't remember. Yeah. That's coming June. Yeah. And name down there with Alex together at the start of August. And then the end of August, again way together with Emma Murdoch in Canada. Yeah. Try is that these Canadian. It's a pretty cool handle that people say it because it's radio show, but I'm Brady. I'm ready. Canada. Candidate before have you sign for me. It's a virgin territory for me which sounds revealing appealing in itself. So I wanted to talk about something about that. Now let's do that. Okay. So we said a while ago. So we gonna Canada we're doing a three day workshop in Ottawa. Yep. And that's the weekend, one fan fan and, and then that's the weight prior to conference and we were going to road trip to conference. And we said one to hang out with cool, people will, yeah. What we said obviously has been misinterpreted or misunderstood. Because we said, if you live along that route get in your cool getting contact with us. And I think people thought we'll fishing for somewhere to stay really. And it's not that because people like us suppose you could stay at our house, and it's like, no, no, we're looking for someone to try and empowers, you could stay you should be. You should be saying, you know, like dude. Yeah. Potty at my guess I have a spay couch. Oh, wow. Thanks. So what we wanted to do was drive because we've got like what have we got five days or something to get as? Yeah. So we wanted to drive from auto Wah, to Colorado, Springs, and maybe film, like a bit of a log or something along the way, I don't know what we'll do that. But it's just something to do. And I wanted to call in on people and do some dog training with Yahoo dog industry people. Yeah. And like pulling to people's facilities or or training areas or whatever and do like an interview with them and say, hey, like, what are you do? Tell us about what you do show us what you got maybe works. I'm Dokes together. Who knows whatever. So if you're on that route or not far from it, and you're interested in that let us know. And what would also be cool is, then we could pick up like out convoy could get bigger all that would be fun. Yes. If you want to, because I know there's some people who say, there was a bunch of people for main and mass and stuff that were the seminar did day. Yeah. You got to hear this stuff a few times. So they're gonna come to Canada now and then that want to go to conference, so, like they can road trip with us and that what on what I would like to do if it's possible is like pick up a policy along the way. So we'll we'll road trip from Ottawa to Colorado Springs, making whatever day tools, we need to because we've got five days to do three day trip to made off PayPal. And then we can all start road chaining it all the way there and arrive arrive as a fist. Well, I've brought of logging camera, so I will bring that on the trip and I will documental trip. Right. So I'll do officially anal- Mike a little video of it. Yeah. It'd be fun to do. We'll put it on YouTube. And yeah, because we're going to at some stage we're going to start kind on paradigm YouTube channel. We could put it on Petronas something to begin with. But anyway, yeah, that, that we'll give it to a patriot on people because they love us the most yet. And if. And we love them. I gotta say, again, there's Bain another swagger, people who've been jumping on patriot to support. It's taken about it's it really has the fantastic thing is I really got things set up finally, and recently, we had a lot of problems with trying to get out banks order that to get it all sorted out with finally going to purchase a new recording dick, thank you to the patriot and people and also thank you to patriot. And people who have been helping us Cape afloat and keeping L show painful, so L subscription phase, it we've got to pay for a hosting phase network phase, everything that doesn't sound like much. But it starts to add up because I like it's idee boxy hundred bucks this old as little things that you've got a Cape, adding onto impossible scriptures, that we pay for the to boost the show's and availability around, it's just another thing. Another thing another thing. And you and I'll wearing it for quite a while, which is several thousand dollars that we've put into it. Go. Now we always say thank you to the patriots people, but I can't not say thank you to the patriots. People wing on not say, thank you. Because you really are holding shower together, you all the people all of you who have contributed who have put money in who have kept the kind on paradigm running, and L sponsors. Of course, Jason Furman people like that. So it's not just a big silos patriots a really big hot felt thank you. Yeah. For people that are really believing innocent, and keeping us flooding and the good news is we, we've having sorted out that Ben Cam stuff, we're finally going to get the Teixeira thing going against everybody. We owe plenty of tissue. It's too. And trust me, that is fucking annoying me. And it agitates me it makes Meskini CI knowing that out. But we haven't been able to facilitate that without making it more and more messy but we can now so the next few weeks that'll be sorted. And you we will be in contact that'll be a new slogan on the taste yet. It makes my skin hitch. It makes it it's all messy and it makes me. Yeah. You guys on that Canada thing we need to soda. No, because we need to stop planning for that. It seems like that's a long way away, but it's really not. And the Candida workshops starting to fill up as well, like Indiana MSN is swagger. People on this be good to say, more people jumping on board yet. So I'd love to say in Canada love to hanging out with your eyebrows. Read is looking forward to the people who have reached out to us. And what did we settle on? What, what are we doing there? I'm going to do the first day is going to be like naptha theory. It'd be pretty much entirely theory day. Yet, we're doing. It's based on Naipoto puppy rising, and selection, and sent training. Okay. Yep. But the I, I will be cold theory that you've got the foundation on that, and they'll be like the first to do it much workshops than they put once you've seen that or ready and you need to hear it again, which most people sort of, say, they do come along. I agree. It's something that you need to sit in a couple of times. And it's one of those things when we did bots silver, and gold school. It was one of those things that you need some. Time in the state to digest Hopley like to say you understand it without really getting into the nitty gritty of it like I NAR learning theory very well, because I teach at end ATF, but knowing the very detailed specifics of what it is. It takes a little time to get your head around Howard all starts to fall in place, and how it stitches together. So if you've done the trick. Yeah, it's the stitching. So if you do actually understand that lucky vane following Bod, and you've pained pets workshop after period of time, you'll start realizing. Yeah, this is how it translates to the dog. And that's the very important part. And it's one it's understanding yourself clear enough to be out of show it to the dog and to having the dog clearly understand enough to be have to be able to translate it into something that's pragmatic, being able to say the dog worked the skill as well. Yeah. You know, at the end of the day, the more the more I'm traveling around saying, people all over the world and their dogs and. So to say the same mostly the same problems of just a lack of communication, you know, and work. Yeah. Well, I mean, a lot of a lot of the people that you're saying, you're almost doing too much work, but it's, it's a mess to the dog. Like Ed toback clearly communicating with the dog. You're on the right track. Your incorrect, you're right. You're correct. You're being out take you light that quite precisely to the dog so that they can find their advantage. That's the trick of the whole thing. And it's that pathways to communicating giving the rod amount of feedback in, you know, ROY level, in volume that the dough can understand like. Yep. This is my best chance of success. This is what's going to make things the best for me. There's a guy in the states van Mula and try and jumpy you who trying jumpy who is one of the probably arguably one of the most famous trick dogs in history who'd pasta why not too long ago. And I've been following a mouse work on now. You have as well. We're friends with him on Facebook and have had conversations with him. Oma is one of these guys as bodies and many real of people that go off that you could follow in sports, and in training, their own dogs trick, dogs movie, dogs, etc. But he's one of these people like I constantly look at his work, and think here's a guy who really knows how to talk to dogs, you know, like he's communication skill because I made the other day I was watching somebody show forty of Mel walking across bribes toward a French bulldog, too. So I mean, say you wants skill is still impressive to teach them L to do it. It's still impressive, and then to take a French bulldog to do it. It's still impressive. But either way. Like you've got to look at it, and think these people really understand how to break it down enough for the dog to translate. Exactly what it is. You want it to do, and that's, you know, and that's the beauty of a system like Naipoto when you're looking at it properly, like it really does have that click when it's, when it's practice brought it does have that really clear element that the dog goes, I understand everything about this, and it feels me with passion. Yeah. Let's, that's the great thing, the heart and soul prospect. But hey mom makes me think about, like movie dog roles. Have you seen John week three yet not yet? Are you watching on the plane or watch sit in the site? And it's John wick movie. Yeah, there is about miles. Yes. So there's a saying that way, Halle Berry after fought their way out of this place and she's go to dogs and the dogs assist in the escape, and all over Facebook Assane PayPal lack. No. Now everyone's gonna wanna Mao and like that was the sign when those that movie. Max and everybody gets upset about it. And I can see lack, of course. Yeah. But here's what annoy me. And so. That we actually need. I you know what I'm going to do. When we get this new dick, I'm going to have like a little thing. It's like red faces back in the day ahead like a song as me off. So I'm going to have a little fame song things that what grind pets gives? Yeah. Well, it just seems so, like if there's some things I know some stuff about gun fighting and dog training, that's basic, my whole no one can argue that. And so all the gun fighting in John week movies knees, personas accurate is realistic. How you could've gone. I've got a man crush on that guy. And he's a skilled fighter and a skilled weapons Smith. Yeah. A main. So it's highly stalled version void. Yeah, it's highly stylized theatrical still. It's still drills. Yeah, the drills are accurate. So what annoyed me was that they get these dogs in the movie, and they're like front, math pulley bought his at Ryan. He's so much that I was like how do you get the gun fighting pot? So accurate and detailed. And then the dog training offices a huge level of training in it. And I've watched some of the videos and all that, and it was actually four dogs and Allie berry had to actually be a large part of the training. Because dogs actually had to work for her, and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. It was really well done, and it only take too much away from it except that there are numerous scenes where the dogs were front mouth, like, you know, just canines only things that make us cringe. Yeah, we'll just the things that you liked that everything was awesome, except for that. Yeah. Like dogs. Just bought that guy's clearly, Hedin, slave and dragging him around boy, at, like dozen hers that, that is got him by the clothes, you don't scream in pain, dug his body, and you buy the clothes and dragging, you that's not realistic. That's not how it goes. But other than that, it was good. But and then there's the, the warriors, everybody has, like, now everyone's going to rush, you out and boy, Mellon, wa, and of course, a couple of people will do that. But I don't get panicked about this is other people tend to. It is a nature thing. I mean back in the day when they had movies, cartoons of Disney movies, like one hundred one a lot of people bought down nations. Yeah. And then there was a movie called Shiloh where people started buying bagels left and Santa only to discover that, you know, sometimes bagels Mike gripe pit domes. So people are very driven by that type of marketing hype to think that one braid is superior to another one or make a perfect pet because in the movie that was very anthropomorphic and it made this dog standout as a perfect pet and do I have to agree with some of the people who have concerns because there's enough of a pain gallery, who get dogs, then they shouldn't have you shouldn't have him full stop. And then I get these dogs and that's where you start to red flag dogs that we don't want inland red flag category. So I guess people who are in the Mel industry, who custodians and guardians of the braid do have concerns. That we've been doing such a good job with that dogs for all the, the Rottweiler fraternity feels the same way. I mean, there was almost looking like an extinction level of rottweilers at one stage because people was so irresponsible, with them that rottweilers would basically, the dog that Satan brought to with I like are in the movie, the arm, and then people used to point out that these belonged in, you know, like daily cultish films because that's the top of dog way. So, yeah, there is a stigma Iran, that, but hopefully it won't be what people think it is. I just think that if you braid smell knows you know, and you'll so concerned about people Brady mountain Muslim going into the wrong hands. Maybe it's because your experiences with Novi melanoma that you braid. Oh oh delivered the sting pets do it. Just little some thought about all right? So don't bring navy male Millwall's you'd I'm buried Novi ones. Just like don't mistake. Dr enough that different thing. Yeah, I'd support that you get an argument for Miami that way, both in the same buydell net high. So we've kind of just waffled for a little while we have doing our introduction. And we haven't really gotten into the topic that we want to talk about, which is at the moment is some terrible video. Yeah. Some bad examples of dog training that circulating around as being just lightly. I guess I don't know if these things really do happen in succession, or lacking classes, older media reports on them in classes, because once wants a dog incident is available. It's as you to Cape reporting and dog incident, but I think it's more than that as well, because he's a lot of things had nothing illegal has happened. Is this really bad training, some examples and that's been shared around as well at the same time? So, yeah, it just recently, there's been. In numerous cases of dogs dying in people's facilities Judy neglect, I mean dogs dining facilities all the time that happens that dog stolen paypal's backyard is old beds. I'd like inventory, clinics and everything like that. So let's not demonize anybody in the industry, who haven't done that deliberately. Yeah. That's right. So we're talking about deliberation. Yeah, there's been some clear cases of neglect luck dogs, having to death and knowing that, that is that is an abusive fact. Yeah. And I think it's worth pointing out in these cases, it's certainly not like using existential food as a training modality. And like what hype? They, they forgot the had the neglect in a cry because if a taken into many clients, and they've got like a I'm guessing they're straight out forgot that they had the dog and hadn't fit just fucking her into imagine that lack the that death of dehydration is essentially, how you go in that regard is horrific. But anyway, yeah. It's as bad as you can get. And then some recent videos of a go, I with the bat, tracing your Doberman around the room all the way through to another woman who keeps going Facebook law Ivan showing terrible terrible on educated. No, I d I can't even begin to imagine where she even learned to do those techniques, and we have to speak a little bit cryptically, because I don't want to well, his the issue, what we want to talk about is what can we do as a community to reach out to these people and educate them better? Yeah. Well, this is the problem we need to. There's a few prongs to it right. Like, exactly, as you say, we have these burden of luck. Well, these people. Doing what they're doing thinking that, it's, it's the right thing to do or it's, it's an effective thing to do, and that it's okay, and we need to communicate to them. No. That's not. And get them if they're going to be in the industry on the right track. But then, also there's a problem of, you know. Not allowing these people to be Representative of us, and it's a fine line now that we all have to walk between saying to these people like, hey, that's no good dog training, you need to do it like these, but also then saying, like, hey, you are not a fucking a Representative of awesome. Now, techniques and say to everybody else, these people do not represent us. These are an extreme at the end of the spectrum has balanced. China's whip scented, and this is not an example of someone that we hold in any regard, you and I were having a conversation about this. I think last week not long before you took off and it might have been in something that we were almost considering podcasting about, but it was a sane from the Walking Dead. When Nagin talks to, I think it was Michelle Maggie. He was having a conversation with one of cutting a long story short. He pretty much gets the end of the story and says, for those of you who on Walking Dead fans is going, they called Nagin, who. Just a narcissistic psychopath. However, he makes this point right at the end of the conversations because he's been caught and locked up in one of the seasons by the presumably, good guys and hey, says to them depends on new talking to on each side because everyone thinks they're the good guy. And the strange thing is, is that there's a lot of criticism that that occurs, and in some cases, rightfully so because we're looking at, in some of these cases, some pretty appalling top of war and Klay cases of neglect dogs, getting miserable deaths from people who shouldn't I bet a seemingly dined, but some of these people who we know or considered and have a belief that the doing polling work in their mind. They just don't understand. That's the case and befuddles may and many other industry experts and people in the industry, who know that in order to educate yourself, these days, it's not too difficult to get onto YouTube. Or to get onto a community by service like this or many other dog training communities that exist around the world in hundreds, and thousands of forums that there is a lot of accessible information out there. There's a lot of information courses that are Val Tyler modo does great ones on consider the dole. Lebron does their own online university and everything. They were Sarma any places that you can go to an access amazing information from some of the most profound minds in this industry and around the world. And yet, we still say people doing a cake training methods that have phased out years and years and years ago, and I wouldn't condemn these people and say, you know, they all that. And I've never done that because in the old days of training dogs. It was very compulsion based, that's what we knew, you know, like thirty years ago training dogs was about squashing dogs dogs on the control by this is where. The whole dominance theory starts to spill app and people's disdain and hatred for it gets really emotional to a point of way people making inaccurate climbs about dominance and so forth because dominance theory was, you know, you had to squash the dog and to keep the dog on the control you had to show, the dog who's boss. And that's what we still saying in this denied. And this is why instead of getting so angry at rights to bed at a think, Maldon think I believe, and I feel it in my Barnes, and we both agree on this is that these people really need to be reached out to, they really need to be shown examples of what beta styles of training is and better styles of communication. And hopefully one day because I can't say him just doing a flip Ivan. But hopefully with bitcoin us in a bit of understanding. I think that they might say the Aaron they wise because I think, just calling a man and abusing the shit out of him and, and getting people to jump on. This is way that Nagin signed comes into effect because he might or. Or she might or they might or whoever it is just my retract into the cells. And decide these people are a bunch of fucking nuts. They crazy. Listen to them. Because from the other side all you say is the witch hunt. Yeah. People coming for you with pitchforks, and guns blazing Radi to burn you at the stake, and yet they believe they've done a good service. And this person might be turning around saying, but this dog was chewing, the shit at a people, you know, before I got to him, and I've managed to turn this dog into a, a Saif robust doll by my training methods. So they think they've been the good guy. And I'm this is I'm just playing devil's advocate here almost saying this was right or wrong or anything like that. But I've just been on so many forums of light and our simony situations. Now look off saying this video, which, which you're referring to and, and it did make my blood boil when office or it which wanted to joke about the woman, the diamond one will. So here's the thing. I feel differently about the two we're talking about the in the last week that have come out. The, the guy with the man. Yeah, but he's hitting that oak with the fucking bat, right? Yeah. Like, so, I feel like that is not a person in native continous, because if you need to be told, hey, this new techniques, and they don't involve hitting the dog with a bat. Yeah. On, don't get me wrong. I'm not defending it. I'm not. No. I'm not of that. Yeah. But I feel like I said there's two scenarios on thinking that have happened in the last week with the Doug men and carrying a bat. Yep. And then is the woman who's using a callers and stuffing matches up dogs, assholes and is basically just shutting the dogs down but she's, you know, basement, she doesn't vice. Yeah, I saw that one sT around as well, and I feel differently about both of them. I think that both terrible terrible dog China's but I feel like one of them is a terrible person go with the bat and is in no way, entitled to Al now he's. Should be prosecuted by an animal. Yeah. Something like that as well someone someone should someone needs to go inside of him high. Listen, I think you need to choose another career or go to jail. Yeah, yeah. I mean, it's, it's a clear case of animal cruelty to is about. I'm not defending that. No. And I'm not saying you defending either at the other is then is this woman who she's had loads of people. I've read a fucked on, on the comments on those laws and mostly balanced China's, which is a good thing. It's mostly balanced. Trying. Identifying, like, hey, we need to get in here and and do something about this. Yeah. But she's arguing back saying that they force free it that just lock methods. And there's an example on the video. Like I said, we weren't name it, but most people know what the fuck, we're talking about. Anyway. She's going. She's getting a more powerful Aakulla to show the dog because he's being stubborn. And I'm like this is what we talk about where we took. William, we're talking about clarity and communicate clearly with the dog bit if that fucking dog knew how to stop that pressure. It would you don't have to go to a more powerful color. You're not providing adequate communication to the dog for eight to understand what you want. I it is what you will be happy with at the end is she will not have trying the dog to do the things that she wants. She'll have made that dog. So fucking scared of making mistakes that it will be totally shut down, and it will do nothing. And she will that point claim that she's trying to do something to be aggressive or some, you know, like they'll be some spill at effect of the behavior that will bay tardily and all of the training that she showing is usually like Maka boards, doll training. So when the dog eventually figures out fuck if I dislike on this Marco board, flat, and Bray the slow as I can. That's how one way I can escape pressure. Yeah. She'll return those dogs born and trains. Look how fucking this is this is amazing. And so it's a real pickle because like. I Don if you hitting it dealt with the bat, you're being abusive, and, you know, it, but I don't think she specially in this day and age thirty years ago. People didn't think about things that much they didn't have the God for animals like they should've again. It's not a defense but they didn't think about things like in this denied now we've got the point I was trying to make before what, which is, we've got such a integral training by system. That exists out there, there's no excuse for not knowing it. That's all. I'm trying to say, yeah. But so here's the problem. Right. You look at the video of the guy with the bat, and I'm sure everyone can funded or has seen it. He's actually training the dog. The other woman is not because when he threatens it over the bat. The bat down the dog dance Yelm, does exactly what he asked. Right. And so he's a straight up abusing the dog, but he understands by trying, and that's just the technique that he's chosen because you see the tells it okay to do something, the dog doesn't do it. He offers the correction in the form of abating and the dog does the behavior. I had to stop watching it. How throw? Yeah, it's horrific didn't find any but he understands behavior. He's just a fucking asshole, that's chosen to debate dogs with the bat. That's he's tool, but he understands what he's doing because you see. It's affective in the video. Yeah. Right. Whereas the woman who's gone to high level in the color, and Colin the Doak stubborn she doesn't go to fucking clue. She doesn't know anything about, but by modification training because adults aren't doing what she's talking about. And she's talking about how every one of those who videos, particularly stubborn. Blah, blah. Now, there are stubborn beings get that, but this is a bad a Doug. Whereas we discuss this thought they fund their advantage. And if that dog knew when you have to go, we've gone to a more powerful. And now the Dokes still not doing always tell well he fucking doesn't know what you want. Maybe try using some positive reinforcement and show him some of the things that you want, and then layer in some pressure, instead of just using pressure until the dog stops and stops doing everything stops, full stop anyway. So it's a tricky one, because, yeah, like how do you help these people and what we do? What do we as a community meant to do? There's people who are saying to her. Hey, this is not good training and some of the comments, of course, on the comments alike, your horrendous beach, but others elect, this is bad stop and polite and trying to explain to, to that. And she gives feedback to them like fuck you, you're, you're one of my height is cognitive dissident in anybody's defense is a terrible thing defending something which is clearly wrong and still standing by that decision. All that choice is. Terribly frustrating for a community of people who can say that. It's completely wrong. And yet, the person's still stands vigilantly behind their decision all the choice to Mike it. And that is very frustrating pulled oil was talking online the other day about, you know, you may trying to get a politician on the show. Yeah. And as much as I gray I'd love to have a politician on the show, who would love to join us, if there is any politicians or any local area in Sydney, New South Wales who are involved in any animal lawmaking because we've just on their loss podcast on that, if you are in the in the logic community, and you involved in decision making in animal legislation, and would like to come and join us on the show plays. Do you can contact us you can Email us on info at the kind on paradigm dot com? Join us on the Shire. I am reluctant that would happen. But hopeful that it my we able to not swear, if that's a problem if you wanna come out and have a civilized conversation and talk about it with added it bang. Any bias to it? So we can discuss how the function and role of somebody in your position works. The invitation is open. We'd love to have you on the show. Again, I have reluctancy that, that will happen because I've been spending a lodge, Potu my life trying to work with people in the decision, making processes who just don't seem to listen. So they have other not whether look, whether they just following the popular choice, which is my suspicion in order to Stein job, you need to work with what's popular or is it based on what is actually right now is this something about that, you know, that we don't know that we maybe you can reveal to us because they might be that position that we just don't know why that decision was mine. I dunno frustrating but poll like when you put that point out. It's not like I'm just giving up. I am hopeful I'm ever hopeful that they will be a, a politician out there who is. What I consider a balanced person in decision making who Why's up all the factors who basically has the wisdom of King Solomon to sit there and say, okay, well all the facts that before me, I can clearly see the benefits of the argument that you're putting forward, but also being very transparent about it to the public community that they can say okay, well, he's the argument full and he's the argument against so being in a position where I have to decide what's right for the community and what's right for animal welfare. I can clearly say based on the scientific evidence before me that the tools that you're putting forward. Don't in fact, caused the harm in what are the people saying all that they do. But they transparent about it. Don't just hide it away in and shuffle it off to a corner of the world that nobody can get access to. And nobody gets any clear definitions or answers in it should never be based on. Well, let's just how it is it should be based on what? Actually, right. What's right. What's scientifically proven. And if that happens Hallelujah fucking Hallelujah. Love to say that happen. You know, we'll get back to the premises avail mind comes. Well, the, the tool things is an interesting one to, to talk about. Because in both those videos that we've been discussing in both those videos, it's a problem of the person, not the tool, and you say, boys. So he's a thing right? There's a guy chasing the Doberman around with a baseball bat, right? So he doesn't need. Until he's got baseball Dougie's wearing a caller in the video. But the why he's happy to use a baseball bat against the dog. He doesn't need. He doesn't need tools and what is kind of scary to think about with the, the woman doing the Facebook laws. That's Kusunose dogs on the eighth Cola's. This is what is really the most upsetting thing about that is for her in her level of training and the way that she's willing to deal with dogs. Maybe a caller is one of the best tools that she can use because she has no interest in positive reinforcement, and to get she would be going into injuries pine levels with dogs. Now. The thing with an callers you can't injure a dog with it. That's impossible. Right. You can sock logically fuck up a dog and can cause a lot of pain be con-, injure a dog. And you say, you can't ban them, and you can't scold them in econ Pete, their skin with electric city or any of that physically impossible yet, and that's all improving in court. Yep. You can leave skin necrosis from. Tottenham the caller, and leaving it on for too long a period. Yeah, you can do that with the flight call on this or that has not through the function. We've gotta be gotta be clear about this. Yes, that has nothing to do with the function, electric city. Yep. And so the thing is imagine if she wasn't allowed to use any E coli Broncos or any of the tools that are actually used on dogs. She's gonna get the fucking baseball bat because I'd shouted to think that would be the case because if she oh, she knows how to do is use pressure with no tools that allow to us pressure. She's gonna fuck and get those out she's going to get the bat. Yeah. And this is the problem. It's, it's not an issue of the tools. It's a issue of the people. It's a it's a mindset of someone who would use those things. If you're the kind of person that intends to just use pressure or force, or all intimidation fear, or whatever it is, you choose to try to dog, you're gonna find a way to do that. Whether you have an cholera-prone caller or whatever available to yoga fond fucking way. And so that's that's where it's a real problem for these because I as we've just talked about. Who used to the caller is horrific. It's terrible. Terrible terrible use I'm show know untold they had to do any of that. I'm sure that she's picked it up. And was like, he we go by myself, or maybe there's certain individuals that are that will remind nameless that she's been spoiled boy, but. That thought process that got her to doing that. Is there with the without that tool? So those dogs are going to be getting bashed in crashed into position, whether it's Vara tool that will help that happen. All boyhood bay Hanes and, and then they're certainly not going to be no Facebook laws when it goes like that. And this is where the fueling system comes into play when people are watching these and whether itself taught or whether it's inspired through the work of the people. I mean, if that is still something that's going around in communities. God help us, you know, this is why you will not you in any one particular. But this is why we sail selves in these delicate situations of fighting for our lives in the, the ability used these tools, because we've just got people who they don't seem to evolve. They say it'd be stuck in a rut, they're not looking at it objectively, inciting. You know, I don't really think I'm at my best in my game a NATO look outside the square or the poor. Fox that I'm stocking and examine other training methods, I'll give you a bit of annoy. Brian a heat when you're talking about tools and the selection, all of them in how it affects also I've attune let's say, for example, you want to spray paint something, where do you go running? Okay. So when you go to buntings to get you spray pint, tell me about the situation of that. Well, you have to this paint his locked up, so you have to find someone who will confirm that you're eighteen and they unlock the spray paint and give you what you won't hear in risks my case. And it's not the sprite pines fall. It's just a can of compressed day with pint particles inside it. I k but the fact is, is because certain people abuse it the rights of everybody else is now that you have to be inconvenienced. Just go to the shelf, pick you spray paint, you have to go and find someone in the fucking shop for five minutes, hunting around for staff member that he'll come an unlock the cabinet foyer, and, and as Pat said, if you'll underwriting. You can't buy it without an NFL present because you're automatically viewed as somebody who'd use it fell criminal purpose. One of those graffiti toe tag, GRA fatalists profanities. Yeah. What do you call someone who can't graffiti probably? Would they be a defeatist graffiti? Perhaps, perhaps, that's a judge. Somebody will tie me that. Yep. Yeah. You're right. And so, certainly the same thing could certainly you saying with, with tools that there would be a some sort of checks and balances in the sale of that. But like I say, I I'm not convinced that that's going to help because. Like a formally. I was two weeks ago. It was like, yeah. Legislate and have mandatory training in these tools. And maybe that is a maybe that is a path to go down. But we're still talking about the one percent is, but the one percent of the people who loved to say themselves on TV or yeah. That's right. You know, one percent is some of the craziest people of these industry. Love getting vice add on social media. They, they the first person to put the hand up. They've got untaped calm. I wish I had the confidence. They've got untaped confidence. They'll have a go at any job, they'll do anything and fucking bat sheet crazy. I mean like some of the worst people I've ever seen in the industry will declare themselves. They'll throw the hand in the they'll jump up and down. They'll, they'll try and do a backflip just to, to get noticed. And what befuddles me even further is that they actually get a looking that just that defies logic. Like I sit there and say hell, there are such capable people, but usually the capable people. Don't speak up as much. Yeah. That's you know, they might be they're liking confidence. Or they're they seem to think, you know, it's lacking integrity to jump up and down and behave like that. And yet you sitting there scratching your head going hell, the hell would sensible people consult with this personal days, people based on their lack of knowledge, and it's same so glaringly obvious to us. But to other people, maybe they lost in the fanfare of what they at the time, they don't say, what we say, and that is a real struggle, look odd people before and. I've been absolutely taken in by the dog and pony show that they put on before me in are they sold me, a con story and I don't get done by too many these days. But back in the day when I was very impressionable, people would tell me things, and I would think my God, this person is the best dog China in the world, and it was all story based, and it was just based on the story, and yet you watch what they're doing as opposed to somebody who is very much a skilled operator and very clever. It what they're doing. And you think you guys are fucking findings. But anyway, so what do you think then as a community, what should we do about these people as far as like self regulation with noting that, like the police will take care of Doghmane guy, but ecology kick? What, what can we do as a community to intervene? What's the most effective thing we can do? Or what should we try and do to intervene? Now sells before it becomes a legal problem. You know, I'd like to say that the best thing that we could do is utilize our agencies like a Spacey is and so forth with the degree of reliability to be out of sight. I'm look he's what an example of good use with the training tools these and how has a positive effect on the dog. This is clearly a case of abuse, and this lady needs to be prosecuted for, and since you are the agency, who deals with that, then you need to send somebody over there to, to speak to her about what she's doing and give her a Sason deceased. Yeah. It's problem is the snow really breaking any laws like, and there's no luckily say, there's no physical harm to those animals. There's plenty of mental, she's put that shit all over the internet, it main, if, if she was actually able to be the guy with the Doberman. They he picked up that night place at at the place. We own an hour of that footage being lawn. Good. But with her does snot actually just doing terrible dog training. This is not actually doing anything. Illegal certainly on ethical immoral bad, boy, every practice, you can imagine why every industry standard, but it's not actually doing anything illegal. So like what is a community? Can we do so, like more opinion on this? I think celek Auburn Alabama of shared the video. Yep. One of saying, this is an example of good dog training. Good. And I think and had some comments on that. And I thought that was a really good step by him. Because you think okay? Well, he's a world champion in a sport and known in the industry has not too many people that would he he's name and not know, Brian. Absolutely. So I think having people see names like that share their videos and saying, this is bad. I feel like that's a good step. Yes. Maybe even the I say step in like a peer review panel put together a informed litte tour and actually send it to a rather than sending it on social media for everybody to, to view. Personally send it to her and decide listen, the video that we've seen is distressing for a number raisins. And he is a list of recommendations from peer review panel that we would encourage you to take on board. And here's a support line for you to call and speak to paper without judgment who offer you -education and be able to sit down with you and consult with you on how we could help you improve what you're actually doing. Because right now what it is, is a standard that we find unacceptable. Yeah. One hundred centigrade that Anna believe that without sort of speaking out of school. I believe that something like something along those lines is currently underway. And I think that, that is the path forward is hearts and minds two months. And it's finding a way to communicate to anybody else in that position that, like, hey, this actually isn't good. And, and when you come at people publicly then that. That can go sort of H Y rod, some people can just double down. Well fuck you like the NFL to I have to for my own ego on my pride or whatever after just double down into. No. It and say, you'll wrong there's also the sorry to cut you off. There's also the risk of people taking logs in situations like that with completely overwhelmed by a wave of hatred. You know, like you've got to understand this is a delicate balance, sometimes in the situations, there was a porn star, not long ago, the who she made some pretty out there statement about who she wanted to work with or not. And then she received such overwhelming hatred from the public, but calling her a racist bigot bitch, and blah, blah, blah, the light of that gnawed, she went and killed herself. And what was out there about, which he said people felt that while I think what she said was that she wasn't prepared to sleep with a guy personal all have sex with a guy person on on video and the community. Really that was actually I know that the case heard about him something else. It was that, well, it's someone had had potentially tested they'd done guy point as well. And then had been exposed to someone who had have hydro or something like that. But yet she essentially said, you didn't wanna have sex, or so on and then was hit by the community, like, like it was a tie, right? Of absolute hydrogen. And those things aren't helpful. I like here I am. When before I've been one of the people carrying the peach folks and saying some pretty nasty things to pay before now. I Ray think it because of things like that because to be honest, we give the punchline, so she was she was bullied, so hot on social media that she killed herself. Yes, that's what happened. Yeah. So, yeah. She killed herself from from what happened. So I wouldn't like to say that happen. I don't think anyone deserves that. I think I think everybody has the opportunity to receive a little bit of support and decide, listen, just he me out and be open. If you give them all that, and then they choose, I'm talking about making choices if they choose not to, there's not much you can do for person who chooses not to pay ignorant, and I turn round and now I will not do any of that, because I don't want to, and I make that clear and distinct choice. What can you do? Hopefully that's when identities will step on them and not on the rest of us. Yeah. Because that's the real feed like you were talking about the John Wayne thing with people, you know, can they concerned about people running off and buying mel's? Well, I mean for us, who advocates of the correct use of tools, the ethical use of tools in training with proper education and benefits for the dogs, Jesus yet haven't heard a sign this before you must be living under a rock, and we're not teaching head to suck eggs because this is one of the things that we wanted to promote you. Now Shahr pretty much from the conception of the kind on paradigm is we wanted to talk about the balance aspect of life in just about everything we're doing, you know, not help people have this runaway feeling and get carried away on the emotive side of it. But the actual reality, we want to provoke scientifically backed freethinking people to come forward and put together good arguments based on. What is real as opposed to what is a magic and will felt and be con- help but feeling things when you look at the video videos, you can't help it. You know, econ help feeling sick and in writhed said and just perplexed how people can still try and like that. And that's what happens to me. When I look at him. I just watch him on think, again, gone back in waterside before sorry. Let me stop. I'm getting a little bit worked up. I get people ask me questions about things that have the same access to information that I've got like somebody will say to me. Hey, what do you reckon of this, and I'll decide I don't know. But I'll get my smartphone out, and I've been Google and type it in. And there it is there's access to the answer. And that's I've never been in such a lucrative position of information as I am. Now, you know, like there's a an age gap between us. But we still came from an IT with smartphones didn't exist when kids kids today have got information to every encyclopedia or every bit of information from every section of the world around the world, far this month, and it doesn't it takes seconds to exit and still people won't do it. That just defies logic in my mind, does that bother. You much is it does make it amuse me. It doesn't amuse me at troubles me. Like that. You, you have trouble sleeping at night about, you know, people looking dogs into backyards, who have the capabilities that never gonna fulfil. Well, that's one of the things that keeps me up at not is wondering how the fuck do you not understand that you have a supercomputer that used to fill up a house in your pocket that you complaining that there's not enough, funny cat videos, and maims about, and yet you could you could grab anything and I mean, they saw much educational material that you can access on that little box that sitting in your pocket, and yet people still aren't doing it. Well, but I think in, in the case of, we're talking about it. It's that she doesn't know that she needs that she thinks she's got all the tools that she needs. And that's the problem. Right. And so she might be the best Google as who knows. Google is, she just doesn't know that she needs at info. So. Yeah. Like from my point of view into what to do in that I've done nothing. I've kind of been whoa. Facade has been very busy being doing a workshop and traveling. And so, I haven't that's where my mind has been. But I thought, you know, rotting I comment I just feel like we've sort of naked or something, and he we all we're doing it. We're talking in this. If someone knows that women's into these, she can he me colour a bitch, and she can call me and abuse me like we've been down that road. But anyway. The problem is I feel like just the comments that Assane on her page. She sees his personal attacks. And so they're not helpful. I think that the way that I've in shade video, and didn't address her directly but was saying, this is bad. I think that is probably quite helpful and hopefully she would say something like that. No, he's okay. Well like by on the wrong track. If a if a world champion of particular dog sport. Yeah. Is an who is a master at remote known defender of the yellow, as well. But then I think that the real path to stopping hood trading dogs like that is, I think, as you say, a private message, maybe not from an individual, but from a group like a hero. He's a panel of people. Yeah. And in this group, surely, you know, few of these names, right? He he they and we're all saying together. Hi, you're on the wrong track. You need to re educate yourself. Yeah. If if working with dogs is what you wanna do. You need to reeducate yourself, incoming coming line with modern best practices than the has to be a line in the sand, like after that, if she then goes, no. Like you guys a height is okay. Now we have to crucify you, like we have to we have to hang you to the wolves. Because we've tried everything else. But I think just throwing it to the wolves initially is that's that's unreasonable. That's unreasonable. What Wade suggesting she's doing? Yeah, yeah, so I agree. I think that that's the way is the review panel. And pointing out to a hell she can change what she's doing. But just giving you those avenues evac say, look, I think, and hope that the I'm pretty sure that pays the pasta doing that and they're not a reactionary force. You know what I mean? They things take time, but it should happen hopefully without any fanfare. You know what I mean? Like she should just get that let. Letter, and it should just go away. It doesn't need to be a big public not I don't like some of those things being done publicly. I think that, that needs to have it be a conversation that does happen. And she gets the ability of the right of reply. Yeah. And hopefully but then post that if she holds a ground, then I think public is the way to go. Yeah. Well, if she, I mean, look, she turns around and says, no, I'm not doing it on ROY Moore. I'm doing, you know wonderful dog, you one thousand people of combined intelligence Israel wrong. Well, what can you do? Yeah, yeah. But that's again, that's how the false very community. Feel about us. Yeah. Which, yeah, that's right. That's the problem man. This is this. There's no clear answer that he had to me. It's hot isn't it. It's a difficult one. And I guess this is the, the aspect of the awesome them culture that exists in in just about everything. You know, I mean, we've had Georgie and jitter on. Hey, before the talknet wholesome greyhounds, and yet, you know, they'll outlined ethical point of view on there still be people at their not. It's todd. Disgusting. I wouldn't do it. And yet, there are other people saying well that in the role to ensure that these doesn't happen because it's happening anyway, with you want it to happen on not. But my role is to actually secure and envisage a beta lost all for these dogs while they are doing it and Mike show that everything about what we're doing is ethical, and that I'm working for the Dogo for the horse and effectively. That's what you and I do in L day-to-day training programs, and most people that we know they, they have signed philosophy. Their ethical standpoint is that we're trying to improve communication aspects between humans and animals to make sure that what we are doing in. Those videos doesn't happen to have dogs or horses or. Any companion animal. That's involved in any human action that is, is squashed shutdown. Yeah. That has the ability to understand what it needs to do to find its advantage. You know, for me at the end of the day with all the all the teaching doing all I'm doing of, of people, and of dogs. If we can, if there's anything that can come of these videos, and certainly what we've been talking about, and it ties back into what we said, brought of Stott is that in everything that you're doing you when you're training, your dog think about what the Faulk Amoy intending to communicate to the dog and do what is necessary in order to do that. Like eighth a few can communicate what you want using positive reinforcement like do that. And if you can communicate what you want using some guiding pressure do that. But remember, it's like guarding pressure, not fucking ram and cram, you into the position like GRA member that you'll communicating all the time with the dog and in every rainfall so that you have positive negative reinforces. With a using punishment positive negative connotation. However, you'll communicate even the dog communicate with the dog correctly so that you don't have to. Just go to your fucking fought club with the dog. It does Tardelli unnecessary. Yeah. I don't know if you saw it on the forum because you were probably in transit went up, what it up. But I put that video up of it's a European video aware, guy has a conga line of people. And he said that, while ago starts with one guy. Yeah video. Yeah. I put that up on the form. And that's what I say. These this is what happens to the dog. You know, it's the incremental stage of way things start going wrong. And you can say that in that line of people so that one guy starts off the presenter of the point that he's trying to Mike he get to hold onto people. The example he makes is somebody getting on a motorbike turning it on and riding off on the Marta bike, and in stopping and putting the peg danell something like that. So he he clearly shows one guy, and that guy does a very good visual representation of showing the next guy it starts to get. Halfway down the line. And by the time it gets off by Dan the line. There's no visual cue of the motorbike anymore. It looks like something like a little dance step. By the time it gets to a third of the white and the line. It looks like somebody definitely doing a dance dip with YV hands going one way. And then why be hands going the other way. So what the visual interpretation is or what it's incrementally digressed into is one very physical explanation of how to ride a motorbike like an air example, had to do it into a dance step of going left and right with your hands twirling around in the, the two of them look nothing like they should have. And that to me is a good physical. Representation of what happens with poor training. Okay. You have an idea in your head about how to do something. But yet the dog has perceived that because incrementally. Well, the problem is it hasn't been incrementally. Explained to the dog and the dog hasn't had sufficient time to absorb what you trying to do. So the dog portrayal of what you want is a shitty little dance tip, and you get aggravated angry with the dog this tends to happen quite a lot in training aspects. And this is an example. I think we're trying to point out is that people really need to make sure that whatever it is that you're trying to do the dog has a clear indication of what it is. And it should be achievable and the dogs should know how to control what happens to it as an aspect of whether I choose to do it or not. Yeah. For show, you know, an example of that real aside, from now, wind you met people episode. Nazem actual Dhotran stuff. Yeah. An example of that people say the healing. Right. So I say, oh, I have some issues with the healing, and I say, okay before you even get the dog out. Tell me what healing is. And they go all. Well, it's noise odd, it's kind of being here by myself. Where do you want the dog's head all will? I want that, like, you know, looking at me. You couldn't even convey to me without human language. What healing is hell on earth? I going to convey it to your dog who you can only show impeaches. Right. So and even some of the more precise training will actually not some of all of them. Oversaw training Davis saying is people who've taught they to heal really nicely right. What happens every time you tell the Doak to at off of a decoy for the first. So I'm off of this leave, or whatever for the first time until the doctor, he'll thinking it will come back to you, it heels against the decor. Yeah. Because your criteria over. He'll is say contact with me, your shoulder touching my left leg and body stripe. Right. That's what people think is what they have communicated to the dog. But what they have communicated to their dog moral from the non is our contact with the person holding the rainfall saw your show that touches the left leg of the person holding the reinforcer and, and striped body against the back. Of it. And so when the dog then heels against the decoy they, they correct the update criteria as you've explained it is correct. And then you have to add new lion. Go no, no. It's actually may whether I have the rainfall someone else has the reinforcer. It doesn't matter. The reference point is the person who says he'll not the person carrying the rainfall up. Well, that's an issue with direct rainfalls mental. We'll tell them. But we say that we even white oak is trying to hardly ever with direct reinforcement. They always go into the first time they, they go into a heel against the dig he's done at rim coast, and we can't on it. We use it to try. We use it to try and the transport. We count on it happening. We know it's going to happen, but it's a good example of youth think you've conveyed one criteria to the dog. But you have. Right. And at that point, a lot of people, they get embarrassed or frustrated when that happens. And you know, I'm usually say, coming soft prep to PayPal to intervene, and say, like, no, no, no, like he's right. And you just go to show him now, like and it's like, come on little buddy. Like a little bit of, like, hey, come on, like you've got it. Wrong. Thesis road. I designed further rainfalls for the dog getting it wrong. Yeah. And then help them. Get it rod and says that do rainforest then. And then it only happens once or twice. But it's a good example, there us I like a lot of people don't, if you, if you can't clearly communicate the criteria of what you want to a person, you have fucking less than zero chance of being out a clearly articulate it to a dog. Yeah. And even then you have to be very careful that what you think you've taught the dog had to do is what the dog is doing because it can appeal that it's one. And actually, it's the other, you might think the dog understands you perfectly, and he's doing as you say and intend for him to do, but in his mind he's added an extra step. There's a superstitious behaviour in there or something that in another context makes that behavior impossible to do like if you've told you dog to down and you've used a mock aboard and he gets used to the idea of the front of his fate kicking the front of it. The mach aboard on the white down. Absent the moc aboard he can't do that. And they fall he thinks that the behavior copied on just little things like that. So you need to be careful and then say, all well, off told this to my dog, and this is knowing your dog and knowing like knowing where you're at and training. He knows this very well in one context if he's not doing it in another. Is it that he's distracted like whatever bullshit, excuse? You make up is he looking at this, the moon and thinking it's tennis ball. Or does he not understand it in these contexts? And then what, what guarding help can I give to help him understand it. Yeah. And it falls in line with the mind question, that's often the Naipaul's the first question that people are us why does the dog do what it does was the dog. Do anything to resign situation. Yeah, that's, that's young oh to keep that in mind. And, you know, and you find everything falls into place after that, even Colonel, Konrad mice knees book training, dogs manual? There's a point in there that he says, it's the shop contrast between the agreeable and the disagreeable which teaches the dog where advantage laws. And when this is taught correctly, the dog will very quickly, the emphasis on that passage is the dog learning where it's advantages. So if it's perceived advantage, it's still to the dog. It's still the dogs advantage yet until it says, otherwise, yeah, that's right. Hey, let's wrap it up. Yeah. All right. Well, we have a clunky episode. Yeah. Went around the shop. Dan, didn't it? The emphasis on that on this podcast was that the. Video is that we saw pretty much have kicked a lot of people in the fields. I think it's a bit of a cold election on other love to he back in the in the community in our discussion group in, we've put forward some suggestions on what we think a better way to deal with it. What about you? Let's get this rolling in the discussion group it deserves a little bit of intelligent thought and something by design on, how do we come together as community to fix these situations? Better stay from you guys. Yeah. Some people in the industry. Need release of their ego? I think that would help a lot in anyway, wrap it up. Yep. All right. That's it for another episode of the canine paradigm as low as if you'd like what he plays lock right? Share subscribed. Do that through whatever subscription service. You download us from Tel friend that helps us get the would only in contact with us. You can do that for a male. We info at paradigm dot com. And if you want to spoil the show best way to do that is patron three bucks a month. Get you extra content per month. Ten bucks a law of QNA, which all we're doing the next very soon to the multiple mock is one. Yeah. I'll be doing that. Well, once I win because I don't know when this is coming out. So I can't really give reference, but it'll be soon, okay, or Monteverdi happened. But. Future future have an at some point. And it usually.

Facebook Jason Furman Canada Mike YouTube California Cape PayPal Bain patriots US baseball Mel China Ottawa Doug Brian NFL Phillies
Why should we care about deficits?

The Ezra Klein Show

1:07:08 hr | 2 years ago

Why should we care about deficits?

"This episode of the show is brought to you by the British stream British fastest filter ever is number waiting the British stream filters as you fill it. She get cleaner. Great tasting water. Fast gave British stream today at Amazon WalMart or target. If we were to see a really large increasing government spending, and it wasn't accompanied by taxes that would put upward pressure on the economy, and you'd see the fed raising interest rates, and in fact, they'd raise it quite a lot. Hello. Show on the box media podcast network. This is a conversation. I wanted to have for I don't know a year. I literally got the idea for this. I think like he here a go, and it's just taking some time to get to get it together to figure out how to do it. I have been for a long time interested in and often confused by this idea of modern monetary theory, which is an alternative way of looking at how to think about budget deficits and inflation and the government's ability and constraints on printing money, but because as I said, it's not always an idea. I understand all that. Well, I've wanted to try to get a better way of tracing its boundaries. And so I wanted to have a debate between not a debate. I guess a conversation between somebody who is a proponent of modern monetary theory and someone who comes out of more mainstream if liberal branch of of traditional economics. And so I'm very glad that Jason Furman President Obama's former chief economist and Stephanie Kelton who is an economist at Stony Brook university. And is I think one of the most public advocates modern monetary theory have both agreed to join me here. So on the one hand, I this is an idea that often gets caricatured in the debate as saying, particularly like on Twitter and elsewhere saying you don't have to pay for anything, you just print whatever you want. But on the other hand if it's not that. Well, what is it? Right. What what how would it recommend different path forward for government budgets for fiscal policy for the fed for the country, then more traditional economic? So this is a great conversation. Trying to trace that boundary. One thing. I want to say is that we had a catastrophic audio mess up on my end. And so we had to redo it. We had salvage as much transportation pecans most of it is pretty exact, but they're places where I had to fill in based on contextual clues in the conversation. And what I thought I had asked. So if anything sounds a bit off that that may be part of it. I've really done my best half full fidelity to the original conversation. And I think I mostly have. But it is possible. I have screwed something up somewhere along the way. This was a quite unusual kind of technical failure. And if you'd heard what it sounded like. You'll be glad I did not release version of it. But I'm very grateful to to Jason for being here to Stephanie for being here. I think there's a lot of value in this conversation to very we'd see one. So it was a lot of fun for me. So was my Email is as recline showed box dot com. As her client show at vox dot com. Here's Stephanie Kelton and Jason Furman Jason Furman. Stephanie Kelton welcome to the show. Thanks for having us. Jason give me the traditional economics view on deficits. Why do we care about government deficits, the traditional concern is partly macroeconomic, a view that deficits are form of negative savings by the government that that crowds out business investment or requires us to borrow more from foreigners and that in either case, it reduces national income in the future. And then the second concern about deficits, historically. Has been one of intergenerational fairness that there are essentially passing cost on to future generations, and Stephanie how how does modern monetary theory. How does that approach change things here? Yeah. It definitely changes it. I mean, Jason describe deficits as a negative saving by the government. But what we tend to focus on is the other side of the ledger. Right. So that government deficits are positive savings for the non-government part of the economy. So we would dispute the idea that government borrowing uses up limited savings that are available to finance other projects leading to rising interest rates in the sort of crowding out that he referred to. And also, I wouldn't agree either. With the intergenerational sort of argument because government deficits result in. In new assets for someone and so in this case, it would be US treasuries. And so those are inherited as the government runs budget deficits, somebody ends up with new financial assets. In this case government bonds and future generations, what happens is not an interpreter generational transfer, but an intra generational transfer. Meaning that at some future date someone's going to be receiving the interest payments on those treasury bonds. And so at any point in time the population is made up of taxpayers and bondholders. And so it becomes a distributional issue. But you can't burden and entire future generation ought to stop here. Because crowd out is an important idea. I wanna make sure defining it correctly. So the idea is that there's a certain amount of investment that we can have in the economy or a certain amount of borrowing. And if you have the government borrowing too much money, then that creates more scarcity and what the private sector can borrow and it raises up the. Prices of the private sector's ability to borrow and thus makes it more expensive for them to invest is that a reasonable status quo definition. Yes. So there's another idea here. I think it'd be good to get out which is how the government budget and the the private budgets interact with each other. So let's say the government cuts taxes by one hundred dollars, but only cut spending by ninety dollars. So there's one hundred dollars going into the economy, but they only paid for ninety percent of it. What what happens with that other ten dollars? What what where does that money go? And where did it come from? Well, somebody gets to keep the extra ten. So I think it might be a little more straightforward as Roaf. We did it slightly differently for your listeners. And so let's do. Yeah. Let's let's just do. Instead, let's suppose the government spends a hundred into the economy, but it only taxes ninety backout. Okay. So on the government's books we record budget deficit, and we say the government has engaged in deficit spending. It's minus ten on the government's books. But if they put a hundred in and they only take ninety backout that of course, leaves ten somewhere in the economy for someone to hold. And so what that means is that the government's deficit is the non-governments surplus to the penny. Always. So I think the intuitive question that Jason is it somewhere ten dollars just got invented or created which could have an effect on inflation or something? Right. People intuitively think you can create money out of thin air or eventually you're going to have a problem. So so what happens to this ten dollars? How should we think about it magnified? However, many times we actually do it across the economy. Yeah, let's let's say you're talking about establishing a new social security program, and you're going to pay out cash to senior citizens you're going to tax working people. The current generation of senior citizens when you first set that program up benefit because they get money out of it. And they didn't. Don't pay anything into it. And then that cost of their benefit is affecting amortized in spread out over future generations. And that's an example of how you could benefit a generation today, while hurting future generations that might be a good idea because you might think that generation needs it, you might be able to target it very well, but you really can do intergenerational transfers now if you built a road today, you might make our grandchildren even richer than they otherwise would have been. So I don't think the deficit by itself, you can look at it and say, you know, whether it's a burden on our grandchildren or a boon for our grandchildren. But it certainly can affect our grandchildren for better or for worse. So Stephanie helped me understand some of how impede might look this. What happened is the danger here that the Bill comes due and America can't pay it or the danger? Here is inflation down the road. Like, what are what should we be worried about? Versus what we often are worried about. Well, there that is one divergent point to be sure I mean, the idea that there's bankruptcy risk or solvency risk. This is not an m. Mt point, right. That this is something that Warren Buffett and Alan Greenspan, and the Saint Louis fed and numerous other people will tell you the risk of default for a country like the US, which is simply promising to make payments as they come due in a currency that it, and it alone can create the US dollar. So there is zero as as Alan Greenspan put in these were his exact words, there is zero probability of default in that sense. Right. You are never going to become Greece. You're never going to be in a situation where you can't service the debt as the payments. Come do. So that's a pretty big difference. Yeah. I don't think it's definitely I don't think any economics textbooks. Economics textbook places very little weight on the default problem. And I completely agree with you and completely agree with Alan Greenspan that the United States defaulting on its debt is an absurd notion. In fact, you can look through history and look at countries that borrow in their own currency that control their own monetary policy, and they don't default, and they don't default, even when they have much more debt than we have. So I think that's something that sort of here out in the popular discourse that almost no communists would place very much weight on. But that's a problem. Right. What the actual problem with deficits is does not get described well in the public sphere. I'm realizing this even just having done the research prep for this conversation. There's a lot of hand waving about why one might worry about deficits are just a word that means something bad people. Don't really go downstream of what they're worried about. All that often. So Stephanie what are the conditions under which deficits matter and is is in. Understanding of when it deficit would create inflation, or when it would create a problem is the boundaries of that condition really were M T differs from traditional economics or is it somewhere else? Yes. So we always make the point of saying that the risk of a deficit or of a debt that is too big is inflation. And so just to be clear the national debt what we refer to as the national debt is nothing more than a historical record of all of the money that the government spent into the economy did not tax back that is currently being held saved in the form of US treasuries. That's what the national debt is. And so those are interest bearing safe assets. Right. And so because their interest bearing that involves an interest payment, and that interest becomes income to someone. And so what I would say is that the risk would be that at some future point combined with all of the other spending. It's being done in the economy the interest spending ads too much pressure, right? And it becomes too much income Tate chasing too few goods. In other words, you get an inflation problem in part because some of that additional spending comes from the payment of interest. So inflation is the potential threat. I mean to some degree this salsas, depending on how you're conducting your monetary policy right now. The Federal Reserve has a target of two percent inflation plus maximum employment. If we were to see a really large increase in government spending, and it wasn't accompanied by taxes that would put upward pressure on the economy, and you'd see the fed raising interest rates, and in fact, they'd raise it quite a lot. If they needed to in order to get inflation to two percent and keep the employment levels that they wanna keep if you had a different view. Asian of the fed that the fed was ignoring inflation entirely, then yes that fiscal expansion could lead to inflation. But if you have monetary policy operating the way, it has for decades now the risk of fiscal policy in that case is not so much inflation and much more that in order to stop that inflation, you'd get as much higher interest rates with all the ramifications that would have for people trying to buy homes or businesses to make investments yet. But the way that the fed has been conducting monetary policy for the last thirty years is a consistent downward trend in interest rates. Right. I mean, there was a time when the center on budget and policy priorities, not all that long ago was predicting that interest payments were going to rise to fifteen percent of GDP by twenty fifty and that the debt to GDP ratio was going to go to three hundred percent. I mean, these were actual forecasts. Right. And what what I would have said at the time. Is that interest payments of that size? Because it's interesting come would affect the economy in ways that are not totally dissimilar from the mobilization of World War Two you'd end up getting to full employment long before you about close to the three hundred percent debt to GDP ratio because GDP would explode now. I mean, first of all we as we started the show by asking me what I felt the traditional case against deficits is that's the case. I am based on the data today. Much less worried about I'm more worried that we're not gonna make the type of investments we need to move our economy forward. But I certainly think everything else being equal in the economy, if the government were to do single payer health care plus jobs guarantee, plus a green new deal and not raise taxes at all that the fed would raise interest rates. I think that's something. I'm probably about as confident as any proposition in economics. Now, there's been a downward trend in interest rates, but they'd go above that. I wanna so this down a little because I'm dumber on these subjects in both of you. So I guess my question listening to this is are we really now arguing not so much about these of wen deficits matter, but but when the fed should raise interest rates in really like if their model of inflation is right. I'm trying to get here at the crux of the disagreement, and it sounds to me a little bit. Like, what's really, separating the two of you is it Stephanie's view, which is obviously an MP influenced is that the federal service to sensitive raising interest rates. They're too afraid of inflation. And so they will act to slow down the economy far before the economy actually needs to be so down. Whereas Jason, maybe you're more open to open to the feds core model, but is that what we're really arguing about is that is that the boundary. I think the most important thing is the economics of deficits are very different in Konami. That's operating below its capacity and an op Connie that's operating at its capacity economies operating below its capacity. It's in a recession. It's coming out of a recession. It has high unemployment then you get the Kinsey in effect of you run a deficit and the factory that wasn't operating before and a bunch of people that were unemployed before get paired up, and you have this magic where the factories are running more. The people are working more. They're earning more. They're spending more, and it all fits together that can happen without a lot of pressure on inflation without much higher. Interest rates is then another situation, which is weather when you're Connie's at capacity, and there if you try to spend more it's going to start to put upward pressure on inflation. You'll get either the fed responding or you'll get inflation rising. And so I think. A really important question is how much of the time. Do we expect going forward the economy to be in this position of being below capacity? Which was in for most of the last decade so can be in for very long period of time. Or do you think you'll be at capacity? My own argument is if you're making plans, I would assume starting five years from now if you're gonna do all your economic policies, right? You're probably gonna have your Konami at capacity and should base your plans accordingly. Well, I I don't want to try to predict where the economy is going to be five years from now, I have absolutely no idea where the current account balance is going to be what the private sector's appetite for financial balances to be lower rather than higher than they are today. You know, I I look back at where we were let's say in two thousand and seven and. Jason you you wrote a piece back then and you were talking about options to close the long run fiscal gap. And during that time in that piece, you noted I think this is so interesting because you noted both at the current account deficit was approaching seven percent of GDP and that the private saving rate was at its lowest level since nineteen thirty nine. So the US trade deficit at about seven percent of GDP and private saving rate at its lowest rate since nineteen thirty nine and so it's two thousand seven right. It's right before the wheels come off the US economy, and that was a time. When Jason you were worried that deficits need we needed deficit reduction. You wrote the one of the most important issues facing our nation at that time was the long run budget deficit, and what I think is interesting is because I come at this from you know, a framework where the sector balances. Are important in the way that I think about whether deficits are too big or too small at that time. I was looking at where the deficit was. And I was lamenting the fact that the deficit was way way way too small because the private savings balance had gone deeply into the red, right? Private sector balances were negative for the first time in generations. And so I've used that is a real problem. And i'm. Have read my two thousand seven whatever it was more recently than I have January two thousand eight I was out there. Very actively calling for fiscal stimulus about nine or ten months before a recession was called the time other very conventional economists like Marty Feldstein in Larry Summers on two of my colleagues here at Harvard were also calling for fiscal stimulus and based on the idea that economy slipping into recession the problem is that the deficit is too small not that the deficit is too large of the International Monetary Fund when they evaluated the US economy every year that I was in the White House. They complained that the United States was cutting its deficit too quickly. The IMF was asking the United States to not do the amount of deficit reduction. It was doing. So I think those an awful lot in pretty conventional economics that says. If you're Connie's operating below capacity, you wanna fiscal expansion to get back to the predicting though, I certainly can't predict five years into the future. But if we were to do again, I think we should have in our heads. No, we wanna do single pay or a jobs guarantee in green new deal. Let's say that costs collectively ten percent of GDP. So it'd be about fifty percent more than the federal government is spending now, and you are asking congress to pass a law that would have all three of those in place permanently. Are you going to ask congress to do something else at the same time in terms of revenue to answer that question, you need a prediction five years from now to say, it doesn't need to do anything on revenue that itself is making a prediction about five years from now I think to predict we're going to still be in a deep recession five years in the future when you're spending that much is probably not the best basis for making a policy like that. Yeah. So I completely agree. And I would I was not suggesting that I was reluctant to say. Whether we needed offsets if we were planning to move forward with a host of new government programs costing into the trillions of dollars. That's very different question from saying given where we are today is the deficit too. Big too small should we begin reducing deficits over the course of the next five years. What's the right size deficit three or five years from today? Given the existing sort of. Programs that are in place. That's very different question. I would never take the position that we ought to move forward passing legislation with no offsets to do green new deals in job guarantees and Medicare for all. That is not my view at all. No, I wasn't saying it was I was just saying. Yeah. The reason that one thinks those needs to be paid for in some manner. Maybe eighty percent of them not paid for maybe a hundred and twenty percent one could argue about that is because peering into the future that we don't think the fiscal stimulus model of they're helping those idol factories in those idle workers get paired up together is the right way to think about the world a couple of years in the future. At least if you're doing something that large this advertiser content. Humans use a million plastic water, bottles every minute. But what happens to them after the recycling bin your world? Roll explained in two thousand sixteen nearly two thirds of all the world's plastic waste went to China to be turned into new stuff like sandals toys and hoses. But no longer the Chinese government recently imposed a ban on most imported recyclables in an effort to cut down on the pollution generated by turning old plastic into new goods, it's like if you drag your been to the curb for trash day and the recycling company left it two-thirds full. Where would you put all that stuff? This is what cities around the US are dealing with right now. And while they struggle to figure out a plan much of it is ending up in municipal landfills or just piling up in some cases cities that used to sell their recyclables are now having to pay to store or remove the waste. Why not avoid the water bottle problem altogether? Ditch the single use bottled water and filter your tap water with Britta instead the British stream pitcher filter replaces up to three hundred single use plan. Bottles and filters instantly as you pour you get great tasting water fast. And you keep hundreds of plastic bottles out of the landfill by British stream pitcher today at Amazon, WalMart or target. This episode is brought to you by Doha debates and innovative debate form. Explain collaborative solutions to the planet's most urgent issues. The first Ohio debate kicks off on February twenty six with an exceptional lineup of speakers discussing the global refugee crisis with over twenty five million people forcibly displaced across borders. It's past time for solution. Tune into Doha debates I live event on Twitter on February twenty six at ten AM eastern. Join the conversation by tweeting at Doha debates and visiting Doha debates dot com. Don't settle for divided world. So to take this a bit out of the space of future economic forecasting. Stephanie, I know something that the you've been frustrated with sometimes is the view that T pieces nothing ever needs to pay back. We can just print money endlessly and one thing going on here when I think about when empty has come so much into the public debate. Is it happened in a period when the economy was well below capacity? It happened in this period. When we had this huge recession, a financial crisis and a huge output gap. And so you also had a lot of people quite wrongly, you know, worrying about bond vigilantes and America becoming Greece. But so empty comes in in this moment when it's recommendations are to worry a lot less about deficits and worry a lot less about inflation and to spend the money to get output moving again. But you know, if you imagined for ten years from now and things are very different then maybe need to be raising taxes to slow down the economy under the MP prescription city wanna talk a little bit about that perception that with MTO. Don't actually have to pay for any of your spending. And what it might be wrong. Yeah. Sure. So I think you're probably right that interest. There was an uptick in interest around the work that we had done in the aftermath of the financial crisis. When there was a great deal of slack in the economy. And I think that Jason, and I we would have been on exactly the same page when it came probably to the degree to which the government had fiscal space and could embark on new spending provide additional stimulus without you know, offsets. I mean that would have undermined the purpose of the stimulus in fact, but as we get closer and closer to full employment the amount of fiscal space. You have begins to close in around you k-, you have less and less, and then the inflation risk begins to increase, and so what we're really trying to do is not to say governments can spend without limit because they control their own currency. And therefore, you never need to worry about deficits or debt, but that inflation is the correct risk factor. Ter- and that when governments consider new spending programs in particular large spending programs as economy gets closer to full employment. You have to take much more seriously the need for offsets, whether those come in the form of new revenue or whether they come in the form of reductions in spending in some other area of the budget. So the thing that comes up here law is view that governments and Purdue Representative government, it's democratically accountable, and what people are gonna want is for them to spend a lot. They're not going to take the risk of inflation seriously. And precisely because of that having the Representative part of government be responsible for slowing down the economy by raising taxes or cutting spending is a bad idea. Just from the perspective of political economy that the government will always be spending beyond the point when it should. And that inflation can get out of hand quickly. And then the genie of inflation can can get very hard to put back in the bottle. Yes. So if right now the way we do it is we pretend that there's a revenue constraint. And so we don't pass legislation because of the fear of let's say adding to budget deficits, and so we get infrastructure crumbling around us, we get you know, problems that aren't solved that we could be solving. And so we get more lackluster, we don't invest in our in DC, we don't put money in education that we should be putting an education to promote longer run grow. So we get a less dynamic slower growing economy because of those fears, and and I guess the question is if we replace the revenue constraint with an inflation constraint does that cause members of congress to now vote more liberally, and by that I mean, you know, with less fear about expanding budget deficits because we've removed the perception that there's a revenue constraint. That's binding. I don't I don't get. That impression. My impression quite frankly is that congress already behaves as if they understand him. Mt. I mean, you know, there were plenty of people warning. When it comes to defense spending everybody in congress is in emptier virtually all of them when we came to the tax cuts. I, you know, most economists in twenty seventeen were warning against the passage at least, you know, those of us many on the left were warning that the US couldn't afford deficit increasing tax cuts that deficits matter again that this was going to lead if we pass these now, we know close to two trillion dollars in tax cuts that this was going to have all of the usual negative effects because we're no longer in a liquidity trap, and we're close to full employment. And if we push forward with an increase in deficit spending of this magnitude this close to full employment, then we run the risks of all of the negative things happening. And of course, congress did it anyway, so and at I might add we're waiting to find the negative effects of all of that additional deficit spending. They just didn't happen. But I I guess I just don't believe that congress restrains. Itself because it it fears anything and that inflation and inflation constraint would change that Jason you've been in those meetings with members of congress as a policymaker at the White House. And I'm curious if the way Stephanie describes how Congress's those constraints what this could strengths are treated like in the political system accords to your experience. I think they have unduly constrained it. You know, if you look at most political economy models from a decade ago, they'd be exactly as you described them as that you were frayed the politicians want inflation. So you handed over to the central Bank that can be independent, and, you know, be a little bit more of sour pus than no congress would have been willing to be. But then you look at the last decade, and you saw CONGRESS Republicans in congress constantly telling the fed to be even more contractionary the opposite of what does model said and the fed used its independence to be more expansionary than. Congress wanted to be and then you look at the fiscal side, and you have the IMF lecturing the United States, not to cut its deficits very much and congress, you know, to some degree in both parties actively engaged in reducing deficits at a time when the unemployment rate was still eight or nine percent. So I think we have too much of a contractionary bias built into our political system. I think a lot about his grounded in sort of inaccurate views and understanding, you know, of economics in trying to get people to understand. Yeah. Deficits have costs and benefits. But the costs aren't nearly as large as you think and you need to balance those against the benefits forgiving large corporate tax cuts that are poorly designed the benefits are probably not gonna outweigh the costs. If you are doing, you know, a great infrastructure program. You know, the cost of the benefits may will outweigh the cost. And so I think it's a complicated thing. But no one no one wants that complexity so up getting a huge amount out of this conversation. But I'm going to be honest. I'm not sure I fully understand still where your theories diverge at least in what they would recommend. So so let me try something unusual here. Let me ask you to describe a theory that you feel your framework would recommend the other person in their framework would would disagree with. So to describe a hypothetical thing that could happen where Stephanie? Mt. Would have you go one way? And maybe Jason's you the world would have him. Go the other or Jason vice a versa for you. Could we try that an Stephanie beginning with you what I mean, I guess I would say that you know, I think that Jason is more concerned with the ratio of public debt to GDP and that he thinks of it as a proper target of policy. And so what what I've read of him recently. As early as, you know, as recently as just last year is an argument that government ought to begin to turn or even in January of this year, turn its attention to beginning to reduce budget deficits, modestly and annot slowly over time. But with the aim of targeting a debt to GDP ratio where there's a belief that it's on an unsustainable trajectory now, and so we've got to do something to bend that ratio down. And so I I guess I would say the negative consequences from my position of of making the debt to GDP ratio a target of policy is that you will necessarily end up with slower growing economy. More austerity built in than the economy may need through that period of time because the ratio is is not a proper target of macroeconomic policy. Okay. So before going to Jason. Response of that. I just wanna make sure I understand it. So so the idea is that debt to GDP is basically just an irrelevancy. We we shouldn't be following it at all because it doesn't measure anything we care that much about measuring we care about inflation. So we should measure inflation directly, or maybe we care about interest rates in and do that directly. But to measure that GDP was a conceptual mistake at orients us towards being worried about the wrong thing, which can in turn make us do the wrong thing. So we should just be worried not about downstream effects, but just the the the indicators directly measuring the qualities of the economy were concerned with. Yeah. I mean, I think that if there was a long-term debt problem than the way that you would know that is that there would be a long-term inflation problem. You would have some credible long-term inflation forecasts coming from the fed or from tips, or wherever you would see this thing, there would be evidence that there there is a perception that long-term inflation is. There is a heightened risk of inflation. And you just don't see it anywhere. An absent that for me. There is no evidence of a long-term debt problem. Jason do you feel like that actually conflicts with your position? I I don't I still don't understand the inflation point. Because if you think that inflation is the problem that would be associated with deficits becoming too large than I don't know why you wouldn't think in that circumstance, the fed wouldn't raise interest rates, and then you're back to deficits driving up interest rates, maybe not now. But if you think that worries inflation, do you think the fed is just doing nothing in the face of that inflation, or do you think the fed is raising interest rates when inflation come? Well. No, I'm saying, I don't see the inflation risk. And because I don't see the inflation risk short medium or long term. I don't have the calculus that the fed then I get that. But you were saying if in theory you did. Ten percent of GDP expansion spending. You said the thing you look to is inflation if the fed is doing its job, we would never ever see the inflation. No matter how much we did in unpaid for spending or unpaid for tax cuts. We would just see the inflation rate staying relatively low, but we'd see interest rates going up. Now, we're not seeing that either right now, which is why I'm not particularly worried right now. But I don't think you can reduce this just as an economic matter to just looking at the inflation rate when the whole point of the fed is to make sure that that doesn't go up into raise interest rates if it needs to prevent that from happening. Oh, keep it. The whole point of M T is to avoid an acceleration in inflation in the first place. And so I didn't say let's increase spending by ten percent in not offset it, and then wait for the fed to react to the inflation. We create I'm saying M T's possess. Mission is the best defense against inflation is a good offense. In other words, you you tackle inflation in the budgeting process itself where the goal is right to avoid creating the inflationary pressures by putting in the proper offsets when you pass the legislation, but I'm just saying if what you're if you're trying to figure out where we are in our fiscal position. And all you're doing is looking at the CPI every month or you're looking at forecasts of inflation and financial markets have forecast of it. Forecasters make forecasts of it. If that's all you're ever looking at you might not ever see that inflation, even if you weren't doing what you're supposed to on the fiscal side, just because the fed if it was doing its job would make sure that no matter what you were doing in fiscal policy. It didn't show up as inflation. So I'm not sure that you can just look at that one variable to decide, but but I I'm happy to step back to pulse. In where I think we should go. Let me see if I can just track with the conversation. You guys can tell me where I'm wrong as I described this what Stephanie says is it the the idea impute pushes stopped tracking debt did you because that isn't the indicator of what we're really worried about what we're worried about is inflation. Jason you're saying you can't just track inflation because we have the Federal Reserve keeping inflation under check. So even if debt to GDP gets way out of hand, you're never going to see that inflation because interest rates are going to go up as slows down the economy to prevent that inflation from happening. So I guess the question this raises is whether the MTV Stephanie is that actually we just have too much of the fed in this thing altogether that what you want is to just allow a little bit more space between what we do on the budget, and what might happen in the economy. So we can see things more directly and respond to them in turn in part. Yeah. I mean, look there there is so much out there in terms of the research about the Fed's reaction functioned the importance or not of. Interest rate movements affecting things like, you know, capital spending whether deficits in fact lead to higher interest rates, some of the more recent research that I've seen it's very good on this looks at the whether it's from Borio or a sharp or whomever looks at this and says, look if you actually separate countries that control their own currencies from those that don't then what you find is that rising deficits and increasing debt to GDP ratios over time do tend to be correlated with higher interest rates and slower growth, but in non that's in non-monetary sovereigns, but in sovereign countries countries with their own sovereign currencies. That is impurity not borne out. So yes, I think there are all kinds of things when it comes to the fed as you said, maybe overreacting over Korea. Correcting anticipating inflation problems, and and engaging in tightening cycle that slows. Things down that wouldn't have been borne out if the fed had been more patient. So I think we we just tend to have a much less confidence in the central banks -bility to fine-tune the economy with, you know, twenty five basis point adjustments in the overnight rate here and there overtime. I'm not don't certainly don't think the fed is perfect. But I'm quite happy that we have given them the inflation objective. I think they've done a decent job of it. And certainly in my experience with fiscal policy done by congress. It is incredibly far from what anyone would want, you know, sometimes it's too much. Sometimes it's too little. It's really poorly timed we were doing a fiscal contraction in the wake of the great recession it cetera. So I personally quite happy that there's an institution. That's insulated from congress that's focused on employment focused on. Inflation. We could litigate the ratio of those two where they little too slow a little too large a little too fast, you know, in any given dimension. But I've never seen anything as massive as the earth that you routinely see congress making when they do fiscal policy. So I guess this gets back to a question. I'd I'd ask earlier, which is are we really arguing here about the role of the fed. Are we really saying that the fed is too aggressive in the economy or to present in the economy, and what we really need is a little bit more space. So the government can make decisions and we can make these investments, and then actually see what is happening with inflation. Be before we act on it that the the the problem is with the fed stepping into the middle and very aggressively raising interest rates to keep inflation from happening were not being able to see the results of our own actions. And then make these calculations in a real time way. I confess I sometimes have a hard time understanding because if you think that I'm you do too much of a fiscal expansion in Konami that that capac-. City that that causes a problem that shows up somewhere could be higher inflation could be higher interest rates could be something else. That's exactly what the mainstream predicts. If your view is that a lot of the time, the economy's operating below capacity and in that circumstance. The problem is the deficits too small not that the deficit's too large. That's what conventional economic says. So I am sometimes not sure I mean what I worry about is. When I see a lot of non economists refer to 'em T is now we can have single payer, and we don't need to pay for it. That's a thing. I see all the time. So I think there it's a very different prediction. Thank both steffie. I agree. If you did single payer and didn't have any offsets that would create some problems somewhere in the economy. I think a lot of supporters of single payer invoke. Mt. To the contrary. So if the view of M T, Stephanie isn't just that deficits. Matter. What what does it help you see how it changed the budgeting process? How does it change the way the analyze issues sort of what is what is the more complex version of how empty changes the way you see some of these the tangible issues in the world? Well, okay. So one thing I would say is, you know, we would like to see the federal budgeting process approached differently. We would like to see decisions taken with an eye to the inflation risk as opposed to thinking that there's a problem inherit inherent in adding to deficits per se. So that's a big thing. Look, we have made some pretty major calls over the course of the last couple of decades that many many other economists miss we when the Clinton surpluses when those budgets were in surplus. It was the M T crowd almost exclusively. That was warning that the Clinton surpluses were dangerous and unsustainable. Precisely because they came at the expense of private sector indebtedness. We were among a small group saying, for example, that the euro there was a problem with the way the master treaty was drafted in the way, the euro was going to be introduced that was going to lead to debt crises, we specifically laid out the risks associated with that the idea that rising deficits push interest rates up. This was one of my earliest publications showing that we've got we've got this exactly backwards that deficits tend to push interest rates down not up on QE. We were among a small group that argue that QE was not going to be inflationary because it's an asset. Swap when it came to the stimulus when it came to Japan and the risks of default fiscal space for the Trump tax cuts. I mean again, and again for the various reasons, but mostly because of the analytical framework that we use that incorporates not just abalone, but when godly and the work of Hyman Minsk. She and others that I think we keep getting the big stuff. Right. That's great. The every one of those was right? Most those didn't require a new theory just to take a few of them the Maastricht targets for the single European currency in terms of debt and deficits. Paul Krugman was very against that using very conventional economics as were hide say probably the majority of the macro-economists, or at least the ones. No, I hang out with almost none of the economists that I spend any time with were worried about QE causing inflation, and you know, on something like the Trump tax cuts. This is sort of a good example. There were people who said the sky would fall that was a ridiculous to have. I published a paper saying I predicted that the Trump tax cuts would result in interest rates being fourteen basis points higher. So that's instead of being two point eight they'd be two point nine four. I said that has, you know, not a big cost, but a bit of a cost and that cost wasn't worth it for a really poorly designed tax cut. I only does anything in the data that refutes my belief that it raised interest rates. By fourteen basis points. I'm not thinking proves it either. But you can't say, oh, you know, there wasn't skyrocketing. Interest rates therefore, a prediction of a modest increase in interest rates was wrong. I think that's where a lot of this is on the deficit. It's not the people who make the sky is falling predictions on any of the stuff are not a communists, and they're not grounded in economics. The people doing things grounded in economics. Think deficits have a small cost associated with them. And then you look at what the money is spent on in figure out, you know, is it a benefit or or is it a cost? Let's let me push bit on. Actually, I'm sorry. Stephanie do you want to respond? Well, I was just gonna say on the on the euro. It was never the three percent deficit limit or the sixty percent data GDP limit. That was never the reason that we objected to the master Creedy treaty. It was always that the problems would arise specifically because when countries gave up their sovereign currencies and adopted. The euro they were introducing a default risk which financial markets were going to eventually figure out and price in. And so it it didn't have anything to do with saying you gotta keep your deficits at three percent. And we said, oh, that's too low. It should be five or it should be six and and on the Trump stuff on the tax cuts. My argument wasn't about interest rates. It was you know, it was more like things like this. Like the letter that you know, you Jason in a few of the other Passi H-shares wrote in two thousand eighteen warning about the risks of, you know, increasing deficits in in that letter, you say that it's it will be a challenge for the ability of the government to provide its citizen to provide for its citizens and to respond to recessions and emergencies. That's the kind of thing that I think given where the deficit is today. There are people who believe that. This has curtailed the ability of a future congress. To respond forcefully. If there's a downturn or another type of emergency in my position is that it has done. No such thing might I mean what I think about that. And I've written this in about one hundred places is I think is zero reason to think we do not have fiscal space to respond to the next recession unified debt gets higher and there's a recession. Absolutely. We can do a fiscal expansion. In fact, the higher your debt is the more. You can't afford not to fiscal expansion in the face of a recession because the bigger your debt is the more your growth rate matters for your debt dynamics. My worry is a political one though that congress may not see it that way in the future. So I think we have economic space to respond to a future recession. I do worry about how whether we have political space. More broadly, though, I do wanna step back fiscal policy isn't primarily. Early about targeting a debt targeting deficit targeting inflation rate targeting interest rate fiscal policy should be about the type of society. We wanna have are we providing healthcare are we building infrastructure? Are we supporting education? What are we doing about the distribution of income? And so we're I'd start in fiscal policies. What do you wanna do? And then at some point you're going to have to pay for that in some manner. Maybe not right away. Maybe not every dollar, and then the questions what direction. Do we wanna go? I think we wanna go the direction a little bit more of where a lot of European countries. Are they have higher spending than us on a lot of things and they've higher taxes than us? And they have as a result of that a more progressive fiscal system. So I think getting out of all of this macro stuff an into what your priorities are in figuring out. How you're gonna pay for those priorities is not the right way to think about fiscal policy. And then let the fed do most of the work on the the macro side. What if all you're breaking news alerts had a voice what would that sound like it would sound like today? Explain its daily news podcast from vox. I'm Sean Ramos grim every day my team, and I take one essential news story, politics metoo movies sports science, and we break it down into twenty minute episodes. Perfect for your ride home subscribed today explained on apple podcasts or wherever you listen from Stitcher, and the vox media podcast network. Sort of rewind the conversation a bit Jason something said a few minutes ago, which is a lot of economists could have gotten these calls, right and something I'd like to talk a little bit about is how in the past couple of years you and Larry Summers in a number of other communists, have been challenging what I do think of is the mainstream economic you of deficits, which is a much more, rigid and concern view. I mean, I think of the the Obama years we had a lot of very mainstream. Economists writing op-eds about becoming Greece and bond vigilantes, and you know, all of this budget Hockery's and deficit panic, and so it does seem to be there have been a lot of economists again very much in the mainstream during the financial crisis some of them were right leaning, but many of them were in the center to and even the Obama administration had a communists who are much more concerned about this. Who are very alarmed about deficits at a time. When interest rates were low when inflation was low when there wasn't really a lot of reason to be alarmed, so you and others are making an argument to see these things differently. Going forward to make an argument that the situation has changed such. Models need to change. Can you talk a bit about how your view on? This is changing and how the professions view on. This has changed. Yeah. Yeah. I'd be mostly I've been much more focused on interest rates and just an amazing. Dramatic thing has happened nearly nineteen nineties the real interest rate. That's the interest rate adjusted for inflation was four point three percent. Now, the real interest rate is zero point eight percent. So in interest rates are much lower. That means you can afford to have a higher debt level. It means that businesses do not face a problem in our economy about the cost of borrowing money to invest, and so we don't really need to worry very much about that. It means actually in some ways, we're worried that interest rates are so low because the next time is recession it'll make it harder for the fed to cut rates by as much as we might like them to. And so just that one variable the interest. Rate. I think should have a big affect on how you think about fiscal policy and with the interest rate having fallen since the nineteen eighties with everyone's forecast to the interest rate having been wrong since the nineteen eighties keeps being below. What anyone thinks I think that says it's time to update not our models. We don't need a brand new model, but the parameters that we put into our model, and if take the same old model, but you put in two new parameters one is a lower interest rate. The second is the Konami is operating below its capacity or often is you get some pretty different answers. And I agree with you as that. You know, I I think very few economists on the center of the left thought we should be doing an immediate fiscal contraction in the face of the recession. But I think a lot of them were too worried about, you know, fiscal contraction five ten fifteen years into. The future. Even when you take the same old model put in the new parameters hang that gives you different answers. So something you said to me before and that I think gesturing at here is that this one way of looking at the model, which is the model was always wrong. There is always huge fall in the model. And how thought about deficits and another way of looking at the model is that the model was right for a time. And now as our time has changed the underlying fundamentals of the economy of changed the model needs to change to. And you've made the point that you think it's the latter. You think the model wasn't always wrong, but things have changed? And so now we need to update our models. So key talk a little bit about the ways in which you think the economy has changed such that we need to be looking at it fundamentally differently. Yeah, I think there are very few in fiscal policy. Timeless truth that you could just go into a cave and infer the right fiscal policy. I think you have to be looking at the data in looking at the world and in particular right now the world is a wash in savings. Partly that's because you have a lot of inequality ahead, high income people spend a lot, but they don't spend nearly as much as they make. So they save more. If countries like China that are saving huge amounts in part businesses. Don't want to invest as much as they used to because you can build a huge business entirely. You know in the cloud with intangible capital in the like, I'm not the big heavy factories of before, and you know, some other factors as well. And I think those types of changes which have built gradually over time have meant that you know, we don't have much of a problem with savings right now. And so if the government's doing some negative savings in the form of a budget deficit that's gonna be less of a problem than if the government had done that twenty or thirty years ago that gets it something Stephanie that wanted to get it on the M T side to up to your point about that to GDP being the wrong indicator. One can imagine. Fifteen or twenty years from now where the debt-to-gdp ratio is forty percent, which a lot of budget hawks would be thrilled by but the M T theory or the MVP way of looking at where the economy is there the economy is running too hot. And even though the debt-to-gdp ratio is pretty low. We need to be raising taxes or cutting spending to slow the economy down. And so in fact, M P is recommending more contractionary fiscal policy, then this kind of traditional budget hawk economics. Is that is theoretically possible, right? Well, Mt would say that the purpose is always, you know, to try to balance the risks of any additional spending the benefits of any additional spending against the risks of inflation. And so sure there's nothing an MNT that says that the right budget outcome is always a budget deficit, balanced budgets might be the right budget outcome because you might need to allow the budget to move into balance to get the right? Macroeconomic conditions to maintain full employment and low inflation. There's nothing wrong with the budget surplus provided that that budget outcome is the one that's consistent with a full employment economy and low inflation, but I I would say, you know, I think that the structural break. The thing that changed that should have forced the change in the analytical models and the tools that we use the structural break occurred in nineteen seventy one, and I believe pretty strongly that the narratives the stories the models, the analytic frameworks that are in place today in widely adopted by mainstream. Economists are those that were compatible with pre nineteen seventy-one world. In other words, they're built for fixed exchange rate regimes and we don't have a fixed exchange rate regime, and I think that it's because M T begins with that recognition that we we are no longer the dollar is no longer tethered to gold. We don't. Have a fixed exchange rate, we have a floating currency that changes the way the interest rate works instead of the interest rate being in dodge, Innis, variable becomes an exodus policy variable, and it becomes important when we talk about debt sustainability, and dynamics and that sort of thing an in a whole range of other things sort of fall out of that recognition that the currency the monetary regime, underwent this fundamental change. And we'd just didn't really update the narratives and the models as we should have. I think that I think that frankly Ford or slightly on slander of a large portion of the economics profession, there have been models going back to Mundell and Fleming that you can assume fixed exchange rates, you can assume flexible exchange rates, and in those two cases, you've got different relationships between monetary policy deficits and interest rates. Now, those have been updated by people like Morio PTS feld. And Paul Krugman. So I think that's just a a real complete mischaracterization of economics. I mean, I decide I don't want to go on about this. But I other bit less interested in the in the economic models debate. Because I don't think he'll be able to solve that one here. But let me ask a more tangible question help bring this to a close if Democrats win in twenty twenty and the twenty twenty Konami looks very much the way it does now. And so you've president Bernie Sanders wants to do single payer healthcare. And it's gonna cost twenty trillion dollars recognizing cost is tricky here. And a lot of this will be off budget off government budget spending coming onto the government budget biz all twenty trillion needs to be paid for or visit government only need to offset half of it. Or none of it. Or does it need to be more than paid for? I'm curious what both of you would recommend. If president Sanders were coming in and stuff. And now you've worked with him before if he were coming to you and saying do I offset this plan or not is responsible economic thing to do to pay for my single payer plan or to leave all or some? Some of it unpaid for allied, tell him give me a team of economists in about six months, and I'll let you know, really. I mean, I'm not I'm not being sort of flippant in that. I think that that is an extremely important question. That required require some very serious time consuming patient analytical work to try to arrive at the right answer. As this is this is we're talking about transforming in the case of moving transitioning to Medicare for all single payer healthcare, transforming about a seventeenth of the US economy and estimating the the ways in which the government taking over payments for health care and a whole bunch of spending that currently takes place and would take place for the next ten and twenty years under the current system that spending goes away. So the questions for me would be how much of the additional government spending needs to be. Offset. You can't answer you can possibly know the answer unless you have some pretty good understanding or forecast of how much of the current spending. That would have taken place is going to go away because that then is creating in a sense an offset for the new government spending. So I think it's a super important and very complicated question. I don't know the answer to it. But I would back into the question. Does it need to be offset? Fifty percent. Eighty percent. One hundred percent. I seriously doubt the answer is one hundred percent because the estimates that we've seen from some of the early. Studies suggest that transitioning to Medicare for all his going to save something like two trillion dollars over the next ten years. But if you say it's gonna save two trillion that's the same as saying two trillion dollars in spending that would otherwise take place in the economy is going to go away. So that's the way I would approach it. Jason I would say pay. For one hundred percent. I can't prove that that's optimal. I'd love to have a team of economists work on that question for six months in my experience. No one ever gives you that team and gives you six months, and if they did at the end of it, there's so many unknowable and unpredictable things about the future. You still don't have a very precise answer. But I think that common sense notion isn't going to get you to terribly off right now, certainly looks an awful lot. Like what worked well in astonishing social security in stab wishing Medicare in looking at the health systems around the world operate on that type of principle. So I don't think this is served us that badly in the past and served other countries that badly or is that constraining I would say in terms of its saving money of single payer did its job. People would be paid more businesses are spending five hundred billion dollars a year on. On healthcare right now. Most economists would predict that they're gonna start to pay more of that out in wages, and then people would go spend those wages. So this is a big, you know, set of extra demand coming out of this. Even if it does save money in the health system, if you do it in unpaid for basis, I'm after table this here, I would love to have another discussion with all of you about single payer. And this question of, you know, would the money move into workers wages of that that I think is a really important question was healthcare debate. That does not get talked about that much, but we have to let it go. So when I ask you about the question, we used to end the podcast, usually ask for three bucks. But if I could ask you both for one what is a book, you'd suggest to the audience with us. Now having had this conversation and stuff, and if you want to begin, oh, well, then I'm going to change my recommendation because you've tied me to the topic of the conversation. I was going to try you recommend whatever. Great. Hey, I'm going to give you two because I was gonna say Tracy McMillan cotton's thick I'm halfway. Through. And it's absolutely as terrific as everybody says related to the topics we've been discussing I'll say L Randall raise understanding modern money adjacent of for fairness. You also get to my favorite title of any economics. Book is saving capitalism. From the capitalists by Roger Rajon, Luigi Sangala, which comes it economics with a really deep reverence for markets and a deep appreciation that no one who's actually engaged in business likes markets or competition very much, and that's certainly mirrors my own experience. And it's an excellent wide ranging read the second one, which I just reread is worldly philosophers by Robert Hall burner that gives you a tour of economics from Adam Smith through Joseph Schumpeter. And puts economics in the tradition that I think is an important part of it of worldly philosophy that combines politics sociology history psychology and economics. I think it's the way it's practiced today, which is in a more narrow technocratic matter. But having that broader perspective in the back of your head. Plus, it's a great read just vermin. Stephanie kelton? Thank you both very much. Thanks again. All right. Thank you Jason and Stephanie for being here, they get all of you for being here. And being with me through that very we'd see debate about modern monetary theory. I guess I shouldn't call it a debate. That was a is a conversation. I wanna make sure this isn't just seen as like a like a who one exercise 'cause my view in this. And a lot of these kinds of things is the this truth on all sides of this something to learn. So don't want to just be like who won that would be above away to to see the response to this. Thank you to for Ruth at Berkeley. Who did a lot of work to try to? Help a salvage audio after it didn't work to my producer. Jeff gelb. We'll also have a lot of work on this one. This one took a little bit more energy to put out than it normally does. But that said is a pleasure to put out and the Klein show back in a couple of days. Displaced is the podcast to listen to. If you want to bet on the stand the largest global displacement crushes since I'm Revie Gramercy, and I'm Greg Gordon this season, we're going to be doing a series of episodes on refugee resettlement sits refugee band that Trump administered refugee resettlement numbers have been going down globally, and with the twenty twenty elections coming up refugees and refugee resettlement are going to be key topic for debate this series dives in and sets the table for how to start thinking about those debates. We'd be approaching this phone. We'll line goals will to refugees eventually been through the process of resettlement. What let me talk to people trying to reform the whole system, I'm incredibly excited to be token to congresswoman Ilan Oma. I get colleagues who will come up to me who will say, you know, he just dawned on me that you you are refugee they came here as a teenager in. Now, you're you're serving with us in congress. And I say this is what happens when you center people in the policies that you create subscribe to displaced on apple. Podcast or wherever you get your podcast and high of Arthur Brooks and I'm back with a new season. The Arthur Brooke show this season is all about love on the show. I'm talking to social scientists about why we need love and how to get more of it. That's the Arthur Brooke show. Subscribe now and apple podcasts or wherever you're listening to this.

Jason Furman Stephanie Kelton Federal Reserve congress United States Greece Twitter Mt M T Obama Konami Amazon America International Monetary Fund Connie
The easy part of this recovery is over

Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal

27:30 min | 7 months ago

The easy part of this recovery is over

"They. All Maryland Hoffman wants right now is to be able to stay in her home. and. So then what are you going to do if you can't come up with the money I don't know I honestly don't know. I don't have choices. I don't. What happens when you've lost your job because of the pandemic and you can't make rent what protections do you have right now from being evicted? I'm Eddie mcface host of this is uncomfortable in this week on the PODCAST, we share one woman story of trying to stay right where she is episode drops Thursday, you can listen wherever you get your podcasts. This marketplace podcast is supported by alarm dot com teamwork makes the dream work and alarm dot. COM makes your homework all with one single SMART APP alarm dot Com Unites Your security locks, doorbell camera lights, video cameras, and Thermostat into one smart system with single smart APP to control at all plus alarm dot com alerts you when there's unusual activity in and around your home learn more at alarm dot com. Yes I know this will be three days in a row that I've been missed doom and gloom but here it is the truth. The easy part of this recovery. It's pretty much already done. From American public media. This is marketplace. In. Los Angeles I'm Carl Dollar. Kid Is Friday everybody the second day of October twenty twenty good as always to have. To be clear nothing about this recovery because the economy is big picture recovering nothing about it has been easy for tens of millions of people. But the shall we say relatively smooth trend line to a better place is getting a good deal bumpier. Yes. We learned this morning the economy added six, hundred, sixty, one, thousand new jobs last month and the unemployment rate fell to seven point nine percent also, yes. Though the rate of improvement of basically everything has slowed and so we are as I said kind at the place where the easy parts over and the hard part starts marketplace's suburban ashore gets US going with that? You can actually think. Rebecca. Hamilton. For some of those six, hundred, sixty, one, thousand jobs were created. Last month we have been hiring Hamilton is CEO of WS Badger which makes organic skincare products and Sunscreens in New Hampshire. future is very uncertain, but sales continue to be very strong for us. Now, six, hundred, sixty, one, thousand net jobs created obscures the fact that three hundred forty, five, thousand jobs were lost permanently. Zach Medford is a bar owner in Raleigh North Carolina. It's really tough to being Barin right now. We. Close our doors on March seventeenth and we haven't been able to open them since he says more and more bars are shutting down for good across the US job hiring is slowing down and layoffs and bankruptcies are very much still with us. Seth Carpenter is chief economist at UBS businesses that initially hung on for a while are now realizing that they either have to downsize. Or maybe even capitulate not just small businesses either united and American Airlines are laying off thirty, two thousand people and that's just two companies. Carpenter says state and local governments are also starting to let people go especially in Education Jason Furman is professor of economic policy at Harvard. He has another concern millions of people have left the labor force four point four million to be exact have. At this point in the pandemic just given up looking for work this is bad because that exodus that form of hopelessness is really hard to undo after the great recession to get people back into the labor force who had given up in left because of the great recession that process wasn't even complete at the beginning of twenty twenty more than a decade in to the economic recovery. So, yeah. We are going to be digging out from this for a while in New York. I'm Sabrina sure for marketplace arts. Let's talk about how deep that whole is that we digging out of also a bunch of other stuff that happened in this economy the past five days heather long is at the Washington both covers the economy there. David Gura is at MSNBC Hey you to. Heather, let me start with you and reporting. You did this week at a couple of stories one of which was about the unevenness of this economy and I want you to sort of test. My premise that the easy part is kind of over now. It very much as an what we found is this is not just a big blow to a lot of the economy. This is the most unequal recession that we've seen in modern US history and what I mean by that is in the spring, low wage workers lost their jobs at eight times the magnitude of high wage workers, and here we are six months later, we just got the September. Jobs report and basically you can summon up like this. The recession is pretty much over for those at the top while for the working class, it's still a depression like blow particularly black men and women are barely a third of their jobs have come back David Gura three words permanent job losses there on the rise yeah. Three, hundred, four, hundred, forty, five, thousand, and Sabrina said in his piece and. You know when this recession began, there was a lot of optimism and hope that folks were being laid off temporarily. They were going to get those jobs back. This is a a sobering number within a sobering number Today's mentioned. We had this kind of easier glide up. We're not seeing not against results would happen today but you know there are a lot of factors that play here some of which were already factors before this recession took hold. Automation, for one thing, and now you have companies wrestling with what the is GonNa look like when we are able to go out I, take trips again or go to the movies and what that's GonNa look like. Something that the Fed chair Jay Powell has said since early days is a lot of these jobs aren't going to come back there just. Be people who are comfortable going to the movies. The way that they were going on trips the way they were there is still a lot to be ironed out a lot shake out here in the months to come we are in his Powell likes to say at the land of of lasting damage to this economy. Not that I've been stuck in you this week. But you you you had a tweet in which you asked and I think this is close to what it was but correct me if I'm wrong. You basically said talking about stimulus and congressman and what's going on with the those negotiations with do seem to have just a glimmer of life this Friday afternoon but you said I don't understand how Congress doesn't see how desperately needed more assistance is a and I guess answer your question why don't they see it? It's pretty crazy that we don't have another stimulus package. The economy is is clearly stalling the recovery is stalling. We still have nearly eleven million people out of work and MOM's this has been a huge blow to mothers almost nine hundred thousand women just left the workforce they left their jobs they stopped searching because they are trying to deal with taking care of at home right now while schools are mostly shut. There are so many red flags still and it's bizarre to me that that Congress and particularly the White House you would think president trump would want to boost the economy before the election So. David, we have to talk about the president, his diagnosis of of late last night my time we small hours on the East Coast So look at it just seems to me that this just adds another layer of uncertainty to an already desperately uncertain economy. I think that it does we certainly saw that in the kind of market movement that we saw. Overnight in those early morning hours a lot of investors wondering what this is going to be when it comes to to the market I think a big question is what it means for the presence engagement with the economy that we've been talking about with this ministrations engagement with that Mark Meadows was out today and. Not Wearing a mask. As, he fielded questions from reporters on the heels of this but he said the first the president asked about was the status, those stimulus negotiations in. The House Speaker does think that things have changed as a result of this. The administration will take this more seriously because of what's happened to the president and his wife but we are in strange terrain here I think some would say maybe predictable terrain but I remember Hedren I at the Federal Reserve Holiday back at one of these press conferences early on in the Pair was asked, have you been tested for for the Krona virus in this is definitely the game that's been played across Washington today who who was near Him who has this? I think that it does change the tenor of the way that policymakers are talking to one another and for those opposites think that this might have an effect on on those conversations that continue on Capitol Hill Heather do you buy that? Do you think this changes the conversation about a stimulus package? Definitely. Now, if we were at thirty percent last night, we're probably at sixty percent today and that is a pretty big game changer. Thanks to the White House. All right. So super-quick on the way out here something we talked about on the broadcast earlier this week the idea that the bridge to the other side of this thing is now on individual Americans as Congress debates and as the White House. Negotiates I'm going to sound like a down. Oregon. It gets worse from here right until there's actually money flowing heather. it. It definitely does. But if we do get that stimulus. Hopeful I'll try to be on the hopeful note I think people have been incredibly creative in this economy I. Think about a woman I spoke to whose cleaner she's dropped her prices. She's gotten more P. P. to try to get clients back. So people I I'm hopeful if we can get some money flowing and we can get some stability from the government still a big question Mark David last word to you optimistic pessimist. I'm trying to be optimistic. I. Think going back to heathers peace and it is worth everybody reading I. Mean She talked to some folks there who are really eeking by on really small amounts of money from the states in which they live and you look at that and think about them building the bridge to the other side and and you just have. To feel like there is a huge degree of possibility there. If you're trying to get by eighty seven bucks a week is somebody she profiled is it gets incredibly difficult if not impossible so I'm an optimistic heart, but but things seem more pessimistic as each day whereas on car do read that period David Gura MSNBC long at the Washington Post thanks you too. Thank you have a nice weekend on Wall Street. Today? Well, it was varying degrees of lousy. Actually, we'll have the details when we do the numbers. Put. Two headers point about women leaving the Labor Force One of the reasons, the unemployment rate fell in this morning's report was something called the labor force participation rate basically, how many people are out there looking for work right now and there were fewer of them last month. So the rate fell and especially women four times more women than men dropped out of the labor force last month that continues the trend we've seen since this pandemic started. And it's reality that is going to have long term ramifications for this economy marketplace. Justin Ho is on that one women disproportionately hold the types of jobs that have been lost during the pandemic says economics professor Betsey Stevenson at the University of Michigan there's caring jobs, the socializing jobs, the jobs where we need to interact with other people, teachers, retail workers, nurses women also bear more responsibility than men at home says Yana, Rogers of the Center for Women and work at Rutgers, university in terms of the gap and doing childcare and housework that has grown even more a quarter. Of Women are considering reducing hours switching to less demanding or leaving the workforce altogether according to a report this week from the consulting firm McKinsey and company leaving the Labor. Force has long term implications for women says Kay bond that the Washington Center for equitable growth, it reduces future income increases produces retirement contributions. It reduces the ability to move up the career ladder women dropping out of the workforce threatens to end decades of progress as women's pay a slowly started to rise bond says that's boosted economic growth in when we lose that as the are in this current recession. Going to have really long term significant impacts on the health of our economy, the economy will eventually bring back jobs in those industries that disproportionately employ women says, economists Sarah House at Wellsfargo. You look at the demographics of this country. We're only going to need more and more healthcare that's most female dominated industry that there is but women who rejoined the workforce when those jobs come back, we'll still pay a price. On Justin Ho for Marketplace Okay a smidge more labor market news here. This of the visa variety the trump administration doesn't want to let more foreign workers into this economy temporarily it says, and specifically workers of certain types, skilled workers usually in technology students on cultural exchanges also seasonal workers in landscaping in hospitality. Might have gotten lost in. That other news from last night. But a federal judge here in California. Says, the White House has gone too far on this marketplace's Kimberly Adams has more on that one. Back, in June, the trump administration said the point of restricting these visas was to give American workers a first shot at any open jobs. So the president temporarily banned new H. One B. Visas for tech workers and H. Two bs for certain seasonal workers. Daniel griswold is a senior research fellow at the Mercatus Center. Each one B. visas tend to go people in information. Technology. High Tech Computer type jobs, and they're the unemployment rate has remained low. So groups including the US Chamber, of Commerce, the National Retail, federation, and others covering hundreds of thousands of businesses got together to sue lawyer Linda Kelly is a senior vice president at the National Association of Manufacturers also party to the suit. These high-technology positions are really hard to fill jobs for manufacturers were competing with organizations really across the globe for folks with these qualifications we reached out to federal immigration officials for comment on this case but didn't hear. Anything back in time for the story, these restrictions also applied to many H. Two B. visas which can be used to bring in people for seasonal construction hospitality and landscaping jobs Andrew Bray is with the National Association of Landscape Professionals in the last several years probably close to a decade almost half of all users of the program come from the landscape industry he says his industry did try to hire people laid off or furloughed due to the pandemic, but often their jobs went unfilled in Washington I'm Kimberly Adams for marketplace. Hey. Do me a favor. You listen to the morning show the marketplace morning report is the technical name of that program, David Brancaccio. and Yang every weekday morning everything you need to start your. Coming up, I turned my energy towards writing my first textbook for junior empires. The things you find yourself doing pandemic. Anna. But first, let's do the numbers. Dow Industrials off one hundred and thirty four points today four, tenths percent twenty, seven, thousand, six, hundred, eighty, two, the dow down almost five hundred points at one point in the day right the open actually Nasdaq down two hundred and fifty one points two point, two, percent eleven, thousand, seventy, five, the S., and P. Five, hundred down thirty, two, point, nine, tenths percent, thirty, three, and forty eight for the week more positive. All three indices rose the Dow up one point nine percent the Nasdaq up percent and a half. Listen P. Five hundred same same. You've probably had your fill of my pumpkin spice adventures or perhaps not but pumpkin beer side. Let's check in with starbucks. Shall we purveyor of a lot of? Spiced things starbuck shares. And the one percent Dunkin donuts almost flat the day down just a hair. Thanks by the way to all of those who became marketplace investors this week video come into social soon of me, Drinkin- that Pumpkin beer. You're to marketplace. This marketplace podcast supported by we work as a business you know today takes new ways of working. It takes new measures toward health and safety flexible terms for where. You work spaces designed with your purpose in mind it takes the innovation of a we work office to take your business where you want it to be visit we dot com slash future to learn more and by the Damore Kim School of business at Northeastern University a world class business school preparing leaders to thrive in the digital economy further, your potential through experience driven learning and a combination of skills. No other business school can provide combine technology analytics and creative problem solving with experienced driven learning. It's business education reimagined. Take your next step at northeastern dot edu slash be more. That's northeastern dot edu slash be more. This is marketplace I'm Kai Ryssdal, we are about eight or so months passed the effective date of Brexit Britain leaving the European Union. As you hopefully remember the UK is still trade wise inside the single market till the end of the year. So free trade abounds the EU is after all the UK's biggest trading partner. But the good times and officially on new. Year's Eve, and there is a fifteen. October deadline for negotiations on the new relationship to get done marketplace's Stephen Beard has been talking to some of the smaller British businesses that are watching warily. For decades, Britain has shipped goods to and from the European mainland freely without checks tariffs but without a free trade deal with the e U The barriers will go up at the end of this year. The British government is warning of long delays at the main channel Port of Dover David Cat of fresh fruit and vegetable importer told the BBC he's very worried. We put an ordering this morning for Holland's little bit here to talk tomorrow morning. If for older doesn't arrive until tomorrow morning, I've gotten I project to light vehicles that produce has to be here on on the was the whole business just collapses exporters to continental Europe anxious to this small company based in London makes personalized stick on name Tags to children's clothing. Hundreds of thousands of individual labels being sent out every day from from this offense laws. Anderson of name tags sells forty percent of his labels to customers. Any EU countries like. He's bracing for Britain's departure from the single market without a trade deal. What effect with that have to think on your business there might be tariffs on each label there might be delays in customs declaring products. There's an additional hustler why not order from a local company to keep those European customers? He faces a stark choice shift his company to Continental. Europe. But then have the same problem with his British customers four set up an additional operation within the EU. He finds that equally unappealing. It's a huge cost and it's a pain in duplicating what we're doing a real pain for a small six million dollar a year company just about recovered from the slump in business due to the pandemic. Yes. So we just kind of survived. It wasn't extinction event, and now we have this big challenge of of possibly having huge costs. It is a big problem for us some exporters to the e U. However, a shrugging off the anxiety is over messy exit from the Single Market. Jason's in. Coventry. In the English Midlands makes lightweight aluminum components mainly for the automotive industry high margin high specification stuff basically every component x-rayed make sure there's no defects the boss Mark Noonan voted for Brexit and he's unfazed by the looming trade friction with the EU all the issues that I seen for Brexit are short term measures they will be solved. You voted for Brexit and you think it's a good. It's a good thing I'm keynote brexit now than I was. then. He thinks the turmoil at the port won't last because it's not in Britain's all the issues interest his European. Customers accounting for a quarter of his sales of offered to pay half of any extra costs and tariffs and Brexit he says it was forced him to widen his horizons Brexit's I announced. We decided that we had to look to the global market just in case there was no free trade agreement and all the predictions of doom and gloom we're correct. We've picked up to clients one in. China one in the USA. Actually changed the way we do business one of them is making autonomous vehicles the other electric cars, real growth markets. He says, Newnan clearly thrives on disruption opportunities abound when everything changes and right now brexit electrification autonomous vehicles China USA friction all of this represents massive change and opportunities for sure. But noone concedes the change can be a source of worry British companies that need to trade with a huge market on their doorstep that coming weeks could be very worrying indeed in Coventry I'm Stephen Beard for marketplace. Major League Baseball was able to squeeze out a season this year pandemic and all the minor leagues weren't, and in fact, it gets worse from there the agreement between the big leagues and their farm teams expired this week, which makes for an uncertain future for Minor League Baseball. Teams will probably be disbanded. Jobs will probably be lost, and as you will hear in today's installment of our series, my economy lifestyles are going to be changed. My name is Jen Powell, a minor league umpire and I work in the Florida State? League. As a minor league umpire, I'm away from home for six months. Usually when I am home, it's September through March and my side job is a small business that I own called evolve to excellence and train catchers, hitters, and Umpires, and help them with their college videos for recruiting, and it's really great balance. It allows me to train and study and also use this platform that I've been on in a really positive way to bring new people into the game. So it's very rewarding. This year we were furloughed and I was able to receive unemployment. So. I just tried to make this a positive thing and. I turned my energies towards writing my first textbook for junior on Pires. Been wanting to write this textbook this workbook for for a number of years and I kept taking notes on it, and then finally just to like have the time to sit still and actually put it together and think. Has Been. Great. The process through the minor league system to earn a position as a professional empire and Major, League, baseball. Takes anywhere from like ten to fifteen years. So it's such a long arduous process to become a major league umpire that you know a year like this Kinda feels like we've already built it into our mentality that it's going to be a long haul and this is just what happened this year. So I'm excited get back on the field and I feel antsy 'cause I I should be working like my whole makeup should be umpiring right now but then I haven't been home in the summer in I would say several years maybe eight to nine years. So be able to barbecue and plant a garden walk my dogs myself is it's been nice. It's been really nice refreshing. Jen Pal, she's spending the off season in Decatur Illinois on the way one hopes to the major leagues. Do tell us what is going on in your academy. Would you we'd love to hear it marketplace dot org slash. Micon? As final note on the way out today, put my oldest son on a flight back east this week, which got me thinking about air travel and. Honestly. How much I miss going places which got me in turn to an old standby, the Transportation Security Administration's throughput numbers, how many passengers they are screening and bear to a year ago. Yesterday almost eight, hundred and fifty, six, thousand people a year ago. Two point four, million, almost seven months into this thing air travel is still down sixty something percent. Or we are Outta here on a Friday afternoon but not without your end a weak moment of economic context comes to us today from the energy markets crude oil. The US benchmark West Texas intermediate dropped four and a half percent day. That's great. If you're driving a lot which not too many of his are gallon of gas is like two dollars and nineteen cents on average nationwide. But oil prices are real indicators of expectations of future economic activity which Kinda gets us back to where we started that the recovery only gets tougher. Our theme music was composed by B. J.. Liederman marketplace's executive producer is Nancy forgotten. It's cassidy is the managing director of News. I'm Rozelle we will see him on everybody having shelves at Great. Art This is APN.

US president White House David Gura European Union Washington Jay Powell Baseball Brexit Single Market Britain Mark David Stephen Beard Jason Furman Coventry League heather long
Bond Voyage

Planet Money

22:47 min | 2 months ago

Bond Voyage

"This message comes from npr sponsor. Weisan a one. To one tutoring alternative to online classes offering live online personalized lessons in more than three hundred subjects head to w. a. n. t. dot com because it wise and we take learning. Personally this is planet money from npr in the next few weeks. It's likely that congress will pass and president biden will sign a bill to spend one point nine trillion dollars trillion. I still still like to pause and step back when i hear trillion. Because you know like okay. Think of a billion billion is like already unfathomably large number lot then a trillion. It's a thousand a thousand billions a thousand so this bill is a one point nine thousand billion dollar bill and that's on top of the three trillion dollars that the federal government spent last year and these trillions of dollars have done a lot of good like the money paid for additional unemployment benefits for people who lost their jobs and for stimulus checks most and for hundreds of millions of vaccines and a key thing here is the government was able to spend all this money without having to raise taxes and without having to cut spending on other things because the government borrowed every dollar of the extra money it spent and it's about to borrow trillions more and this is sort of amazing it feels almost like a trick like. Where did the money come from. How can the government just borrow five trillion dollars in a single year and the answer to this question. Is that until pretty recently. It couldn't it couldn't just borrow that much money in that short a time or at least it did so it would have really messed up the economy for decades basically my entire life the people who were running the government people who are deciding how much money to borrow and spend they knew this and they were terrified that they might borrow too much money and break the economy but over the past decade or so. There has been this fundamental shift in the government's ability to borrow money. It's like the old rules just stopped working. The shift is pretty mysterious. People don't entirely understand why it's happened but it is profoundly important that it has happened every time. I read some story about all the money. The government is spending. I think about this shift. I think this is the story behind the story. It is this shift this change in how the world works that has made every stimulus check and every government funded kovic possible. Hello and welcome to planet money. Jacob goldstein. and. I'm mary child's today on the show. The story of how the government can borrow literally trillions of dollars thousands of billions without worrying too much about the deficit. This message comes from. Npr sponsor net. Sweet if you're a business owner you don't need to be told that running a business is tough now. Is the time to ditch the spreadsheets and upgrade to net suite by oracle a leading cloud business solution system nets sweet gives you visibility and control over your financials hr inventory ecommerce and more join the over. Twenty four thousand companies using that sweet right now schedule your free product tour now at net sweet dot com slash money. Are you ready to take your career to the next level. Well life kits here to be your career counselor. this week. We'll have episodes to help you plan your next career move. We'll give our best tips for asking for a raise. Finding a mentor switching careers and much more. Listen now to the life. Kip podcast from npr. We're going to start in the early nineties back before this shift. When the old rules about government borrowing still applied. Bill clinton had just been elected president. He appointed an economist named laura tyson to be one of his top advisors and she looked at the economy and she saw this glaring problem year after year. Both government deficits and interest rates. Were going up and then he said omega if we don't get a hold of this federal deficit than that trend will continue. Those rates will continue upward. That was a very significant concern. Higher interest rates were concerned for a couple of reasons for one thing. Obviously they meant that the government had to pay more to borrow money but also when interest rates for the government went up. Interest rates also went up for everybody else. And that's it up this whole cascade of problems so we're people won't buy as many houses. There won't be as many houses constructed in their wealth as much capital equipment invested in and investments in important part of the Economic growth in your all sorts of every interest sensitive part of the economy the way the government runs a deficit. The way it borrows money is by selling bonds treasury bonds. The government says to really anybody. Okay lend us whatever one hundred dollars and in say ten years we will pay you back with interest will pay you back one hundred twenty dollars. The bond is basically the government's i. Iou you that it will pay back that loan with interest and during the clinton administration because of that link between deficits and interest rates. Everybody in the white house talked about treasury bonds about the bond market time. James carville was a political advisor to president. Clinton was just an obsession. In the early days of clinton's everybody say what's the bond market could house bot mocking react to hell multiple. i don't know it just became this omnipresent. The heart of every conversation. James carville was not an economics guy but as he spent time at the white house he realized that sort of bizarrely all these people who worked there making policy the people who had what seemed like the most powerful jobs in the world. We're in fact terrified of the bond market so when a reporter from the wall street journal called up carville to talk about the bond market. He came up with this line that became sort of famous or at least bond market famous kid. I wanted to grow up with four hundred hitter. The pope and the president. But i just want to be the bond. Market's gonna scare the hell out of everybody pleat. What did he say. A what a hundred hitter like in baseball pope the president baseball. I cannot tell you how many times he said that's me. Every meeting every meeting a lot of my memories are about carville sort of making jokes about you. Know you issues as a bond trader bond traders. These are the people who work in finance all around the world who manage a bunch of money. Generally other people's money pension funds or college endowments that kind of thing and every day they decide what bonds to buy and what bonds to sell what companies and countries to lend to and what companies and countries to not lend to to stop lending to and like with any lender bond traders worry about lending more money to a borrower who is already borrowing a lot because all that borrowing makes it more risky and so to compensate for that risk bond traders demand a higher interest rate. They stop lending until rates. Go up and this bond traders demanding higher interest rates when the government is borrowing more money. This is the scenario that everyone was so worried about people. Were so afraid of this that there was even a special term for the bond traders. Who do this bond vigilantes. Bill clinton has convinced. The bond vigilantes are scary and in fact he decides the us needs to bring the deficit down. He decides to build a whole economic plan around getting rid of the deficit. One of the economists he brought in to make that happen was jason and a central argument. That we made was if you do this. It will lower interest rates and interest rates are lower will have more investment and more economic growth and sort of amazingly. All of this happened. They did raise taxes and cut spending and get the deficit down. In fact by the end of the clinton administration the deficit felt all the way to zero. And what came next was sort of a golden moment for the economy in silicon valley. There was the dot com boom but really the whole economy was doing great businesses of all kinds. Were doing well. Ordinary workers were getting breezes lower deficits lead to lower interest rates which led to more investment. And that was good for basically everybody. The system was working. The next big moment in the story comes right after the financial crisis of two thousand eight and this is the moment when everything is about to change when this big shift in the way the world works is about to happen but nobody quite nosy yet. Brock obama has just been elected. President obama brings in clinton's guy. Jason furman as one of his economic advisors and ferment. Goes into this meeting to discuss. How big of a stimulus. Bill obama should push for as he takes office. We met with the president-elect december sixteenth two thousand eight and we're all crowded together in a conference room. I think it was in a law firm in chicago and he wanted it to be big. He wanted to be bold but there was this worry. The stimulus was going to be funded with deficit. Spending government was going to borrow the money. And some of obama's own economic advisers worried that borrowing and spending too much money might actually harm the economy for that classic reason the ideas. You don't wanna be helping the economy with one hand by pumping more money into it and then hurting the economy with the other hand by raising interest rates and you to put some perspective on it in late november of two thousand eight some of the leading progressive economists said that we should do something huge enormous three hundred to five hundred billion dollars hole. Krugman was advocating six hundred billion dollars. Quaint the administration decided to go even bigger working with congress. They passed an eight hundred billion dollar stimulus in two thousand nine which at the time seemed enormous almost immediately. After this like the next month president obama starts talking about getting the deficit back under control. Because that's the way the world work back. Then that's the way people thought but the economy was still a mess and so the deficit state big for years. Now remember those bond traders. We just talked about a couple of minutes ago. See the government borrowing more money year after year. More borrowing means more risk. This is the classic moment for those bond traders to turn into bond vigilantes to demand higher interest rates. So were you a bond vigilante. Well i was very powerful. Bond manager Vigilante at that level yes yes. I'd have to say that this is bill gross. Mary you know bill gross quite well in fact you wrote a book about him. It's called the bond kings coming out later this year. That's right yes for better or worse. I've spent the last six or seven years thinking about bill. Gross and the things that he's done so at the time that all of this is going on bill. Gross is running a gargantuan bond investment company called pimco pro was a very large company at the time two trillion dollars in assets bigger than goldman bigger and bank of america than anybody. two trillion. Nobody had two trillion dollars and i'm contractually obligated to repeat two trillion in a stunned way. But i appreciate you repeat it for me here. Is this two trillion dollar bond vigilante looking at all these years of massive deficits and he does the thing that bill clinton and james carville and the obama people who are worried about interest rates are so afraid of and he does it in a big way. He decides to sell all of his treasury bonds. Good evening everyone. The world's largest bond fund is no longer betting on us bonds pimco total return fund has sold off its government bond holdings two zero gross was not the only investor to say or do this. He was just the biggest and he was very public about it. It was all very dramatic so the biggest bond investor in the world has just sold all of his treasuries and told the whole world. That is doing it. We know what is supposed to happen next. Interest rates are supposed to go up but this time that doesn't happen instead interest rates. Go down so that means that bill gross has been wrong which is obviously bad for his investors. After a few painful months of this he realizes he's made a mistake and he has to make it stop. he buys treasuries again and in late. Two thousand eleven. He writes a letter to his investors. Titled may culpa basically apologizing forgetting things so wrong he tells them quote. I'm just having a bad year bill. Gross didn't really understand what was going on yet. Nobody really understood what was going on yet but it was clear that something big had changed in the bond market were was beginning to not work. The way you did. The world was beginning to not work the way it usually did. The world is working in some new frankly kind of mysterious way where it seems like no matter what happens interest rates stay really really low and that is the world we are still living in today after the break. What even is going on. This message comes from npr. Sponsor fund is a truly diversified portfolio needs more than stocks bonds and mutual funds with a track record of earning consistent income and long-term appreciation successful investors have powered their portfolios with private real estate for decades. Now you can too with fundraise see how one hundred thirty thousand investors have built better portfolio with private real estate visit fund rise dot com slash money to learn more so in the ten years since bill grosses two thousand eleven. Screw up in mea culpa. Interest rates have stayed low year after year. Even as the deficit has stayed high and as laura. Tyson told us when we talk to her about it. Economists don't entirely understand why we really does. This is an area where economic sciences not at. Its best orange. There is a lot of uncertainty. There is a lot of earthy but economists have spent the last decade trying to figure this out why our interest rates so low even when deficits are so high and there are a few reasons they've come up with here are two big important ones number one basically comes down to supply and demand you can think of interest rates as the price of borrowing money borrowing dollars and the higher the supply the more money the more dollars people wanna lend the lower the price the lower the interest rate and a thing. That's happened over. The past decade is the supply of dollars to lend has gone up so the price to borrow those dollars. The interest rate has gone down. The supply has gone up for a few reasons. But maybe most importantly the federal reserve america's central bank has created trillions and trillions of dollars reason number two four low interest rates. This one people are talking about a lot right now. This is the thing that people worry about. Its inflation inflation. Inflation inflation and interest rates are like very closely linked very interlinked. And here's why if you lend somebody money today and there's a bunch of inflation between now and the time you get paid back that is bad for you as the lender because the money you get paid back won't buy as much stuff as the money loaned out because the inflation so as a result when lenders those bond vigilantes expect inflation to be high they demand higher interest rates to make up for it and an essential fact of the last decade has been that inflation has stayed really low year after year and this has been basically are get out of jail free card. There are a bunch of reasons for it. Maybe my favorite. Because it's so weird is inflation. Expectations inflation expectations. Inflation has been so low for so long. That people now expect that inflation will continue to stay low and one of the kind of amazing things about inflation that expectations can create reality. They're sort of a self fulfilling prophecy. And you can think about why that is so like this like there are lots of big multi year contracts out in the world if somebody's going to build a skyscraper. They signed a multi year contract or if a union is negotiating a new deal. They signed a multi year contract and built into those contracts are annual pay increases based largely on what people expect inflation to be so the higher they expect inflation to be the higher. The annual pay increases will be and those pay increases ripple through the economy as inflation and when people expect inflation to be low. Those annual increases are very low and that actually helps to cause inflation to stay low and that is the world. We're living now low expectations. Low inflation so bond traders saw all of this this huge increase in supply of dollars to be lent the incredible stability of inflation expectations and they just kept buying treasury. Bonds kept lending money to the government at really low interest rates. And then as we can't stop saying stories like this the pandemic. Let's go one more time to guy formerly clinton's guy jason furman and were you in involved in any policy conversations with say people in congress last spring. Were you were you inside any of these. The virtual rooms. I was in one of the last actual rooms. At the beginning of march i addressed the full house caucus told that we might have something that was worse than the financial crisis and that very large fiscal action was needed urgently and what march of last year april of last year. What's the story congress. For the first time. I've ever seen acted correctly in view as if there was no budget constraint. They asked how much could we possibly spend on this problem. And they spent more than we've ever spent Outside of world war two and was this surprising too. I was pleasantly surprised. He was surprised because of how different it was from the last time he was talking to congress about spending a lot of money to fight a crisis a decade ago. Now firmin and a lot of other economists say congress should have spent a lot more in two thousand nine should have done a lot more to help people get back to work and make that long painful recovery a little less long and painful. They just understand the world deficits and interest rates really differently than they used to many of the economists who were warning about the debt and deficit a decade ago. This time around said if you need to spend five. Trillion need to spend ten trillion. You should do it. And that's just so different. And that's so different. And i think in part it's because people made a mistake ten years ago and learn mistake but in part objectively there was much less reason to be concerned about interest rate risk. This time then there was a decade ago. So here we are today. The government has borrowed trillions of dollars to fight the pandemic and its effects in the next few weeks. Congress will probably pass a bill to spend another roughly two trillion dollars more in borrowed money and so far interest rates and inflation are still. You guessed it super-low but there is now more resistance than there was last spring to borrowing and spending trillions of dollars and yes some of this is republicans who want to undermine the biden administration. But it's not just that several economists who worked in the obama and clinton administrations have themselves argued that it might be better to spend less. Now they say that borrowing and spending so much money could drive up inflation and drive up inflation expectations and remember low inflation and low inflation expectations. They have been the key to this whole low interest rate world. That's made all the borrowing possible. These economists say yes. We got it wrong in the financial crisis because we didn't spend enough but that was in part because we didn't really understand how deficits and inflation and interest rates all fit together and we still don't really understand and we could get it wrong this time by spending too much but a handy thing about the bond market is. You don't have to listen to what people say you can go and look at. What bond traders are betting on. They're not always right. Remember when bill gross old all this treasuries back in two thousand eleven but their job is to bet money and make a profit not to go on. Cnbc or to advance some political agenda and what bond traders are betting on now. Is that for years to come. Inflation and interest rates will stay low. They're betting that this is just the way the world works. You can find us on all the social media platforms. We are at planet money pretty much across the board. Also we have a free weekly email newsletter latest one is all about student loan forgiveness subscribe. Npr dot org slash planet money newsletter. All winward except it's three words or whatever. Npr dot org slash planet money newsletter. Today's show was produced. By dave blanchard edited by me and mastered by killing moon or supervising producers. Alex goldmark special. Thanks to our intern. Dan girma. I'm jacob goldstein. And i mary child's this is npr. Thanks for listening. In recent mass shootings people have been targeted for who they are who they worship but june. Twenty eight twenty eight thousand. Nine people were targeted for the job. They do at a newspaper listened to the new series from. Npr's embedded about the survivors at the capital gazette. This message comes from. npr sponsor. Ibm a smarter. Hybrid cloud approach with ibm helps banks personalized experiences with watson a while helping keep data secure. The world is going hybrid with ibm visit ibm dot com slash hybrid cloud.

government James carville npr president biden Bill clinton kovic Jacob goldstein carville laura tyson Jason furman congress clinton administration bill gross clinton Bill obama obama
Bidens wish list for economic relief

Marketplace Morning Report with David Brancaccio

08:13 min | 3 months ago

Bidens wish list for economic relief

"This marketplace podcast is supported by rapid seven a leading provider of security visibility analytics and automation in these rapidly changing times security teams have their work cut out for them. Rapid seven insight cloud security solutions. Simplify the complex and help security teams reduce risks and shutdown attacks to learn. How rapid seven can help your company securely advance visit rapid seven dot com this marketplace podcast is supported by transfer wise. A new way to send spend and receive money internationally. Get the real midmarket exchange rate. Every time you send money to eighty countries join over nine million people and businesses and transfer wise for free at transfer wise dot com slash marketplace. President-elect biden's wishlist for economic stimulus. I'm david brancaccio. Incoming president biden laid out. What he's calling his american rescue plan last night. One point nine trillion dollars a programs to get people through the pandemic marketplace's. Nancy marshall genzer joins us with some details for individuals. What's in there. Well david there are an additional direct payments of fourteen hundred dollars for most americans that adds up to two thousand dollars per person if you combine it with the six hundred dollars in the most recent and relief package and the extra federal unemployment benefit would be increased to four hundred dollars a week. President-elect biden is trying to narrow the wealth gap he says the pandemic has made it a lot worse. You won't see this pain if you score if your scorecard is how things are going on wall street but you will see it. Very clearly the examine. What the twin. Crises of a pandemic and this sinking economy have laid bare an ansi. Some goals were longer term biden. Wants a nationwide fifteen dollar an hour minimum wage but the emphasis last night really was on immediate relief. We talked to jason furman about this. He's a harvard economist. Who was chair of president obama's council of economic advisers. He says the thinking now goes like this. These households are hurting. How can we help. These states don't have enough money. What can we do to get the money. we need. Money for vaccination. Let's do that chances. Congress will go along with this democrats of course will have a razor thin majority in the senate but biden could get support from some republicans who've been urging him to top up the relief checks to two thousand dollars. Nancy thank you stock index futures. This morning down with the s&p is down five. Tenths percent some companies with frontline workers are offering incentives to encourage employees to go get vaccinated. Here's marketplace's nova safa. Regulators have ruled that companies can require most of their workers to get vaccinated but employers appear to be opting for encouraging workers. Instead instacart is giving its grocery delivery drivers a twenty five dollars. Stipend the grocer trader joe's and the variety store chain dollar general are offering the equivalent of four hours of pay. The companies. say they want to make sure workers don't have to choose between maintaining their income and getting vaccinated neither dollar general nor- trader joe's have in store pharmacies target which does says it won't offer incentives but those pharmacies will make vaccines available to staff. The government's vaccine advisory panel has set grocery workers among the second group to get immunized. I'm nova off for marketplace this marketplace podcast is supported by synchrony. Customers are spending more thoughtfully these days. If you want them to choose your business you'll have to stand out. Synchrony can help their financial and technology solutions company that partners with all types of companies and understands the challenges of running one today they're financing and payment tools can help your customers get exactly what they need. So you can move your business forward visit synchrony dot com to learn more in twenty seventeen. The value of the cryptocurrency. Bitcoin inflated like a dutch tulip bulb or a dot com version. One company and later collapsed. But since this last october the price of bitcoin has more than tripled from eleven thousand to a record high of nearly forty two thousand dollars one week ago but even though all assets that go up can come down now. Institutional investors are taking bitcoin and other digital assets. More seriously jordi. Visser is president and chief investment officer of weiss multi strategy advisers. Welcome thanks dave. Glad to be here and there was a nasty moment there where couldn't go down then. Suddenly it went down terribly about four years ago. One would be forgiven for being leary this month. New all-time highs well. This is very different to me. This is not the same as as what was going on then. I won't even call on acid back. Then i would say it was a thought him the most impressive thing and the first thing that matters now is that time kind of decides whether something was a bubble or just the early stages and that's what's changed this time and quality of the investors. But it's your sense here in two thousand and twenty one that bitcoin has reached a point in which we call it. Its maturity that big dog investors institutional players should be able to put some in their portfolios. You think yet. Why think there's four parts to this. That i think people are becoming more comfortable and remember the fiat system which is what all assets are there about trust in beliefs so bitcoin is no different and where there's a growing belief is as a store of value similar to gold. There's a growing belief of it as a future medium of exchange being used as a payment system which gold never was able to accomplish. It's definitely a future of technology but then you also have something. Which is we really printed. A lot of money last year during twenty twenty and it continues and if you can just print money out of thin air in a way that had never been done before at sizes never done before then i think. Bitcoin becomes a fiat. Acid inflation hedges. Well you just have to convince. Famed investor warren buffett. I mean last. I heard he couldn't stand this bitcoin stuff. Well i don't think you'll ever get everyone involved. I will remind everyone. There were a lot of people who doubted the iphone in two thousand seven. The demographics on who are the purchasers for the users of bitcoin is skewed dramatically towards the younger demographic and specifically below the age of fifty. The reason that's important you try to find what people will purchase going forward. Warren buffett will be the first person to admit he probably has no reason to buy bitcoin. The generational wealth transfer around the globe is approximately sixty eight trillion dollars. Which will be leaving the baby boomers. And going into the millennials jen's ears and down the food chain who are more accepting of this so as every day. There's another baby. Boomer that gives money to their children or grandchildren. Those are people that view it. As an asset already jordi visser is president and chief investment officer cio of weiss multi strategy investors. Thank you so much. Thanks david and beyond the heavyweight institutional investors rules are changing that could make it easier to ask a registered financial advisor at bitcoin portfolio marketplace dot. Org if you missed that piece on the air today. I'm david brancaccio. Marketplace morning report from apm american public media this marketplace podcast is sponsored by merrill with personalized planning tools and insights merrill edge. Self directed offers timely. investing ideas. to help you find answers like how are your investments. Doing what is the market doing put investing within reach and get started at merrill edge dot com slash within reach merrill lynch pierce fenner and smith inc. registered broker dealer member sipc.

elect biden biden david brancaccio Nancy marshall jason furman instacart bitcoin council of economic advisers weiss multi strategy advisers joe harvard david Nancy jordi