17 Burst results for "Jane Foley"
"jane foley" Discussed on Cork's 96fm Opinion Line
"Genuine elect me so the first episode death nasc- like i was very high anxiety because i was like what we're going to be picked up. What where people are gonna see me or people are gonna think. Oh my gosh. She's an absolute goal. Meaning like i didn't know what way people we're gonna view me so i was like okay. Just be general the highest version of yourself. I suppose i went in reading globally. But then after a while i kind of like tom stone and just focus more on just being authentic so so i say the first episode. I'm very high anxiety. Comedown career wise more lake. All she's actually the same that you see on television so like she's so funny and she's actually reading she's chinese slow-down bulletin like she seems to go with no she did. It's she's walking and everything and she has ngos. How would you keep smiling. Clinton breaking down here like is the heat and everything because the weather was hot. When you're up there and stuff so i. And she's wearing like oh and i was like obsessive on buzzer. Is no how she's still going. Lakewood are without personality like religion. This great talking to you. And like i said we're not allowed to ask you how you did. Put good luck and we watching out for you over the next few weeks. That's jane foley from not being part of glo up ireland which starts tonight on. Rt too if you've been following its other versions around the world you know what. It's all about twenty years of age. Look forward to seeing her on the telly. Corks ninety-six fm..
"jane foley" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"And radio is the price action this Wednesday Bit of a bounce back on the S and P 500 up about 6/10 of 1% on the NASDAQ right now by about a half of 1% the out performance on the Russell two small caps by little more than 1%. Some late tonight, talking about this through the morning. The challenge of being a 39 100 just shopping around that number Right now. Here's some numbers to think about 27, 10 and 11. I'll go through them and we start with 27 27%. That's the way to the big tech technology stocks in the S and P 500. Why they gonna smacked around his. The wife switch at the board into the bond market talked about this repeatedly over the last week or so. This is the nominal yield to 10 thirty's Your 10 Year about 1 44 call it 1, 45 and up about five basis points on the session. Most growth stocks have been challenged is the real yield, not the nominal yield. The real yield is really started to push higher and bite into those valuations. It makes it difficult. The S and P 500 to advance difficult because Big tech is constrained even his financials rally, so switch at the board and finished on this. Here's the 10 on the 11 peace. Here's the 10 piece. If you look at Amazon and apple, that's 10% of the S and P 500. This is the performance on the month. And 6.6 down 6.6. That's over the last 30 days. Westley 11 11% is the waiting of financials and that's the challenge here. Tom. Two names Apple Amazon down 6.6% over the last 30 days, even with financials trying to do the lifting, it's a lot of heavy lifting because they are only 11%. The s impinge on this goes to the rotation that Sanjay and this goes to the rotation debate. Is it a rotation? Or is it just the things on the mat off the mat? Back up to normal? It's the rotation right now. And the problem for the S and P. 500 if you're looking for a higher one You don't necessarily need these names to advance. Tom, You need him to stop going down. Yeah, well sounds well said. Well, that's really important concept. So that's the story right now on the market for more movies, Let's get to remain. Good morning, John. Definitely a bit of rotation, although it's a little bit of kind of a circular action to hear kind of going around that merry go round all the talk. Of course over the last couple weeks has been about that narrowing risk premium. That's been the talk this week. But the problem is John. With all that talk here, there's no real consensus on it. You saw that reflected in the rally that we had on Monday. And then, of course. Sell off that we had on Tuesday. And then here in the pre market, you're kind of getting a taste of that again. This lack of consensus here, Tech is trying to sort of dust itself off and reassert itself. If you're looking for signs of life in that you could keep an eye on what's going on with regards to the semiconductor space. We have American tower on there. I meant to put applied materials. That might have been my type of there. But the semiconductor equipment stocks are trying to sort of reassert themselves this morning. And the interesting thing about it is when you look at the value trade First, the MO mentum trade and they sort of push pull between those two. It all course, then comes back to yield on what you're getting. The resiliency we have seen has been in that ship space that's been the out performer in the tech space, outperforming software, hardware and everything in between. The fin tech stocks like Square have also been outperforming. Remember Square Buck the trend yesterday they didn't sell off. They were up 5% their third straight day against going to be up here. If these gains hold here in the pre market and then of course you have the hope floats straight going on with rocket couple. These. This was started off again on the cassette similar to Gamestop. There was a fundamental story year of why we saw rally in this in this stock coming out of his earnings last Thursday. But of course what we saw yesterday were just Top 70 plus percent during the normal session. Really, pretty much had no explanation. But again, you could call it a short squeeze. You can call it a return of the name stocks. But again, this is goes back to the talk The chatter and general idea here that you really don't have a consensus Tom and John as to sort of where this market should be. Where's the short interest on game? Stop right now. Do we know I don't know off the top of my head? I mean, right now, we were looking Pretty. I don't know if you put it that way. Did you see hurts yesterday? It hurts the ultimate means stock that it came out and actually had a reorganization plan. How much of those shares worth Lisa? Zero. Oh, and had been up beyond $5 a share. Just pointing that out. Can you believe they almost did And actually offering? Uh, last year that was unruly remain before you go. I just wanna jump in quickly. The big turnaround story and yesterday session and it wasn't in the morning when you were here with us in the morning soon was flying. But the time it got to, you know, show in the back end of the day. Zoom totally rolled over once that You're blaming him. It's all about the growth story again. You're talking about. Look, they're talking about their forecast for growth. They're coming off 300 plus percent growth right there. Forecast for Q 150% that drops like 40% in the next quarter. By the time you get to the fourth quarter, analysts are modeling. Believe it or not close to single digit percentage growth. And this is on regular. And this is really the story here. Is that the cop the comparisons now you have for companies like this. Just gonna be too difficult to really satisfy the valuations that are out there on the stocks. And if there's any stock that has a high valuation, I won't call it overvalue behi it zoom futures dipped with remain Boston. Thank you so much for the close this afternoon Futures up 20 something now up. 18 points is well. Jane Foley joins us now with Rabobank, various stewed on Foreign exchange. Jane, I want to introduce how we've gone nowhere. I think a lot of our listeners and viewers don't know this. If you look a trade, way to dollar If you look at the real broad index of the dollar, it's basically been range bound for 34, and even out five years it's gone. Nowhere. Does that surprise you Or can the dollar finally cut one way or the other? Well, you know, Tom, where maybe we've got nowhere and on that measure, but in many respects, we have gone everywhere..
"jane foley" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"What can they do to create inflation and the market? Okay, buddy, come on, like, I don't mean to interrupt a change in the time we've got left. The answer's simple to classic economics, which clear the market. We got to go Shumpert her and we got to clear out a lot of this great granted a pandemic. I get that but separate from the pandemic. We have to clear the market of zombie companies, don't we? But that that's what you get very, very political. I mean, there's been somebody don't be companies around in a sense, the global financial crisis supported, of course, by this great seat of cheap money, but now thank you supported by fiscal policies as well. So this visit visit to problems approach supporting them, But to get rid of them becomes extremely political. And again. It's perhaps more difficult to do that in Europe, where Government said to be a little bit more left wing than in the U. S. Okay, well said, But just one final question here and it's just so important. OK this morning we're talking 2023. Which means in 18 months, we're gonna be talking 2024 25. I mean it. I talked to Secretary Geitner about this a million years ago. Has just moving the cannon all of his descriptions down the road. There's a point where you've got a d exam. Be right. Well, you would have thought so, but which government is going to be brave enough to do that? You know that's the thing. Governments ultimately want to get voted in again on that's you know that That's what they became very young, brave when it comes to these sorts of issues, and again, we come back to this issue, you know in Japan How long has this been going on? How long can it sustain And on really, as always, is a global savings card as long as people want to buy this step. Well today. Very valuable. Jane Foley. Thank you so much coming off of Christine Lagarde. It's pretty good Speaker, Christine Lagarde and then Jane Foley of Rubble. Bank joins us and that is a good thing. Wonderful on foreign exchange the litmus paper of the global system. All we've seen is a deterioration. I don't want over cell it with the vics 22. 0.74, but nevertheless, a little bit of an abbey here coming off this globally important PCB meeting. Futures negative 17 down futures that negative 89 on dolphins is under 59,000. 875 year olds. Well, they're churning is how I'd put it politically. To tell you your 8750.93%, a two year old peg. 20.14% seems like it's been there forever on what matters right now. On year I should mention Brent crude. Touching near $50 a barrel 49.55 But on euro If I can get it up, my eyes are failing me here. It must be just failing. You won 21 22 fractionally stronger euro is Christine Lagarde continues to speak in Frankfurt will continue to monitor those important Headlines Sterling off of the acclaimed dinner last night. I guess we came up on folks on the fish. Permit is it was the consensus view. Thank you for all your emails, particularly from England on how we say turbo turbid Ter baht. Herb. It is sort of was the consensus final decision here on Bloomberg Surveillance Sterling 1 32 86. It is a weaker sterling over the last number of days after that terrific run that we saw. Euro Swiss. It churns. Please stay with us on America's debt and deficit. We do that next. This is Bloomberg. Jody Schwartz, this.
"jane foley" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Down four hundred and nineteen points that is a drop there of five percent stocks plunging around the global oil tumbling the stress in U. S. credit markets deepening after the world health organization called the virus spread a pandemic also the trump administration remained on able to detail any stimulus measures to combat the economic fallout we've got the tenure point eight three percent gold down five tenths of one percent sixteen forty one the ounce and West Texas intermediate crude plunging four point four percent right now thirty two eighty five a barrel bank of England unveiling stimulus including its first emergency interest rate cut since the financial crisis a move coordinated with the government's fiscal response to prevent the corona virus outbreak from crippling Britain's economy policy makers this morning delivering a half point reduction to take their key rate to not point two five percent Jane Foley as that of FX strategy at Rabobank we we have had a show this morning this was not about just the interest rate cut because he who pays other mages is well positioned to to go in and speak in a cause companies that lost he leaves the bank of England in just a few days time hands over to Bailey and he really left Bailey could potentially nothing hello L. two days and billionaire investor Warren Buffett says the recent panic that has hit markets is not as bad as the PO eight financial crisis internet of you with young who finance he said quote the panic in two thousand eight was much more scary by far than anything that happened on Monday when the S. and P. five hundred index slumped.
"jane foley" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"This is Bloomberg radio. This is Bloomberg. Daybreak europe. External pressure is going to be an opportunity for reform in China thick liquidity more generally across financial markets is an issue and a concern Hispanic. Thanks, detector are in a much better place than they were five years ago. That wouldn't be great to have a full now trae comfort with the US or anybody else. I'm never been one from Cy westerly will be a new imagine if you think you can Bloomberg daybreak on Bloomberg radio. Good morning from London. I'm Anna Edwards. And from the German capital of Berlin, I'm Matt Miller. This is Bloomberg daybreak Europe on London. DAV. Yes, it is. You're listening today rate Europe on db digital. It's just on. Or or you could be listening on Sirius. Let's remember that a lot, you know, Wall Street wakes up early it's full as well. I used to drive into work at four when I'm with you. That welcome to all US view is. And then, so wherever you are in the world listening to Bloomberg daybreak Europe. We are one hour into a training session here on equity markets in Europe, which looks to be fairly lacklustre the big story, really, in terms of what's actually moving in these markets this morning from a European perspective, is that you K assets are on the move. The pound is weaker down at one twenty six sixty six down by three tenths of one percent, compared to the previous closed for cable, and that is having the expected upward effect on UK stocks. So those big cap stocks that make a lot of money, not in pounds. But in other currencies that then translated into. Two pounds when it comes back to the UK, those companies are doing pretty well today. And so the one hundred is up by three four tenths of a percent this morning. That is a big standout performance to the upside because the cat Karen is down by two tenths of one percent, the German index treads, water with a slight down with bias, looking ahead to the US trading session US features are negatives, and by between two and four tenths of a percent at this point. The Asian session was pretty flat and generally from a global markets narrative we're waiting for two things. We're waiting for another salvo on the trade negotiations, we've got this great story, suggesting that the hallway treatments could becoming from Washington, to other Chinese businesses will wait for more on bass. We'll also still waiting for Chinese retaliation. Of course, on hallway, what form will that take and away from the trade story or perhaps linked to it. We're waiting for five minutes little bit later on. What can we get from those with that in mind? Let's check some US assets. So the dollar is flat at ninety eight one point one at the moment. US ten year yields at two point four two percent also down down a little bit competitive to the previous close. So that's. I said, check for you. Matt. Yeah, absolutely. Very interesting to watch the pound here. I mean, initially, I tend to poop who moves that aren't very big and. It was only a third of its only a third of a percent right now. But I think it is fascinating because of the range that have been stuck stuck in for so long. And in any case, let's talk to a professional about this. Theresa May reportedly facing pressure to abandon her Brexit deal. That's and resigned. And that's what's really behind it. Bloomberg has learned senior officials see little chance of her divorce deal being passed in parliament, our markets live strategist Richard Jones was writing just minutes ago that a new very uncertain political landscape awaits, and we could see one twenty five tested very soon. For more joining us in the London studios Jane Foley, head of FX strategy at Robbo Bank Jane, as I say, I know it's not a big move, but it feels big because I'm so used to seeing one twenty nine to one thirty one and we're out of that range. That's right. There's a psychological element really to the move. But I think the downside stellian has been brewing. For the last few sessions, or your favorite the week will save. An and of course yesterday we had that roller coaster ride on sterling. We had the headline in the afternoon that, that could be a second referendum studying on the back of that. And then, when Theresa May did stand up and deliver her speech. We learned that there was massive caveat, that parliament would be allowed to vote on whether or not there should be a second referendum own, if they passed stole Bill, and then, of course, as events transpired it became obvious. That was perhaps, going to be limited support once again, for her with dole bills studying at thinking, well, perhaps we're back where we started. But maybe even in a worse position. And I think over the last few weeks, particularly, I think the market's been recognizing that there is still a substantial risk that the UK could come out of a of the without a deal in October. Nothing. That's the race. That's really been playing on the markets minds couple of course with this massive political, mess that we have in the UK this legacy, if you like with the Brexit process and. Massively divided conservative party massively divided labor party as well. So it's very easy to see how we get from here to a change in leadership of the Tory party in a new prime minister who takes the reins is less clear. So do we now trade on a headlines around, who is in the running, and who is likely to get through to the last two is not the kind of headlines, we're going to be trading on, and just to one extent. Those people have backed no deal in the past is not going to be the driveafirestone. We'll send you that significant risk. I mean if may is after the way we do have a Brexit here, and there was a significant likelihood that we could have Brexit here at the reins. What happens then parliament have previously voted in the UK against a no deal Brexit parliament, does not want that. How ever if you had a Brexit here in the reins as the head of the body, as they prime minister, then what changes and certainly I think what's happened through most of this year is that sterling was bought, but short positions were covered on the expectation that they would be a deal. So the market does have to repress that. Does have to reprise for the possibility of a Brexit. Equate to pump publicity of a noted nodal Brexit. Why don't we see much movement in the yen as the US China tensions flare? It doesn't look like people are looking for safety at all. We're still you can still buy more than one hundred ten for a dollar. Well, I say, that's perhaps, because the markets will say buying the dollar as a safe haven now, if we look back through last year setting when we had pockets of time, where the market was selling off EM asset selling off EM equities, particularly the dollar was benefiting. So not, not necessarily, the end not necessarily Seuss Franken. I think the reason for that, perhaps, is because of the yield, you can potentially get on the US dollar. We still got negative rates note. Don't forget in in Japan and Switzerland, too. So I think the yield differentials is, perhaps, what's pushing the dollar as safe haven assets over and above the yen, and this was Frank. However, I would say that. The last few weeks, we have had Iran in the headlines. I think when we first started to see the news about US warships in going into the Gulf. We did see the, the yen pick up, and I would say that if we get more tensions of the political kind over the course of the next few months. And of course, that is likely that will possibly, I should say that we will see the yen benefiting. So do you think a break of one ten is certainly at quite possible for Dalian? But I would say that the dollar is picking up a lot of safe haven that's why the dollar index is firm. And that's perhaps why we don't see such big moves in Dalian. Give us the big story around Europe at the moment, then Ajay will given the, the, the exposure to global trade tensions that this currency faces, and we've seen it trading lower with a sort of medium-term view. So for mid early twenty eighteen from one twenty five down to where we are now one eleven how much we could is the euro get well, for well off focused as being that we are gonna go lower your dollar one ten. Is forecast. It's not very far away from a numerical point of view. But perhaps, by the way, psychologically, still. But if anything I will be revising, lower that focusing again, this comes back, partly to do with, with the US dollar partly to the safe haven at bit that we took party that's related to the slower, global growth story into the, the pickup and trade tensions with respect to the US in China. But again, if we look at the fundamentals in the euro whilst there is an argument outlet that the Iraq could pick up some safe haven to. I don't really see that. And the reason for that is that we have a political issues what the European parliamentary elections. You've got the possibility of, of populism really stain very much a theme in, in Europe and dish into that. If we look at the gross data. Yes, we had some reassuring key one at gross data from Europe from Germany. But again, if we look for instance, at the Bundesbank monthly report that was published a couple of days ago, they're saying that some of these the strength that supported ECU one GDP could have been temporary temporary rebounded in cop. Pat, is a temporary build up in in construction in the first quarter. And actually, we look at the manufacturing sector. Well, that's still blighted by weakness in new orders. And certainly when we look at the outlook for China at we can see why countries such as Germany at South Korea at Japan could all be having issues in terms of its exports. So there are important implications for these European elections right now. You're saying that. If we get a very right wing populace. Although I hate that term result, it could be even worse for the euro. Well, then he yes, I would say that something that investors are going to bear in mind. Really important year for the European parliament. They have to appoint any president. They have to we have to see a new president there. Several really key jobs on the is really important year. And, and the danger is that if populace other in the fire right of the far after we skeptics among them that the dangers that they could disrupt the business of the parliament on a day to day basis. So make it more difficult to, to, to see these parliamentary prices pushed through. So that is a danger. Also, the location for investors. If we look for instance, to, to Italy the issue on budgetary issues that is a theme. I think that's going to dog the, the euro, if it remains and, and populism, I suspect. Is probably here to stay people of voting for change, and perhaps that is because we've suffered at gears now of, of week, wage inflation, etc. Income inequality. Okay. Jane, thank you very much, Anthony. Head of FX strategy at Robert Reich. Let's get the latest in global news.
"jane foley" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"That's a Bloomberg business flash. Tom and Paul Karen Moskow. Thank you so much. Well. We have disappointing European economic news this morning, we have trade tensions back on the front burner to get a sense of what this is doing to the global currency markets. We turn to Jane Foley, Jane is rubble banks head of FX strategy. Jane, thanks so much for joining us just wanted to get your read. Again, we have some weaker than probably expected economic outlook for some of the leading European economies. What is your sense of the dollar relative to some of those to the euro in particular? Well, I think in terms of the year. I don't have the best of the bad bunch in in many respects, many consider when we were at the end of last year to market was busy Prussian in a outlook for the for the Federal Reserve. And yet if you consider the four and a half months of this year. The focus has been very much in and you can pre is the news with respect to the German economy. And I think by now investigating have absorbed a nasty defensive influence for the USA today at you had to Germany yesterday rebounded with that rebound with week than the market has had expected. And of course this afternoon in in European hours. We've had the European Commission catching the growth full custody resigned in particularly that number for Jim and Germany's is particularly disappointing point five percent. Jam and Greg sharing that that comes after predispo- cuss of one point one percent that took medic exceptional weakness an engine manufacturing. If you like this really does. Focus the mind on what we've seen in recent months, which is enough d run at John manufacturing. So in that scenario where again weaker for longer. It seems out of Europe uncertainty in China. What is the bear case for the dollar? If there is one. Well, I think there's a couple of sticks to the donor. I, and I think if you bet she lost, and we show something which in the Dona, which that's might have ties to some people. And this is Madonna before we have a really good safe haven for many investors. Knowing say that because two pots of last year, we did see money flowing out to emerging markets, and it gonna do to pay page beat the Lakers recipient that nobody noticed with which to us will let safe-haven currencies, and you must accept a why coaches reasons, why investors might by the donor as as a safe haven acquitted of couse public a list. But I think think you on the Donut really shown out there. You're looking at many other central banks which didn't have an opportunity to to try normalize it interface at Federal Reserve date in the last couple of years, he still negative interest rates in some countries, including at Japan, including Switzerland. And the Bill is so go to a reasonable year. Course stabilising stabilizing at US. Greg was pretty good this year. Well, the US economy silicates to be how many no I mean, look at the paybacks are still very good numbers in terms of employment creation, and yet you have this week in the in German manifesto, need weakness in Japan exports. And this the hat said indicating weak demand flip particularly Kusa at China. Jane in the time, we've got left on the core pair Euroyen. The great mystery is yen is not weaker rather stronger. I should say a lot of people looking for this Euroyen is really begun to move. Strong yen weak euro is that tradable is there. A legit move here to continue a strong, man. I mean you again husband relativity go I would say to see. But if you do back to fundamental, you what you do see is described weakness in the. The euro-zone economy. There was some weakness in the in the Japanese expert says five at described too. But I think if the market gets very very concerned that this could be about China US trade it could be about flooding could be at some J pitch Kobe's that we haven't landing token about yet. But in those circumstances, I think the market will come back to Bindi. And it is the the safe haven when there is a real hiking degree of second in the market, and I think onto days the second step is at the end movie with with you. I do Kane quite weak now coming up to European parliament elections to I think I would favor at the end of the day. What are your tradeable numbers where do you go on eurodollar dollar-yen? Well, you know, we we look at looking for one ten and you don't and that's not by far away numerically. But I think psychologically, it is the market. Consensus is still looking for high unknown by foot with we're going lower. Maybe not so much. Knicks. Very much depends on how the US economy Penza at twenty twenty will. So, but certainly the next six months, we think that dole can remain. An intensive you know, yen. And you know, we're at one twenty three sixty four. Okay, now, I think we can get done two to one twenty two and maybe t but Noah Berga, Jane Foley, thanks for a briefing with rubble Bank of their trading floor, and we greatly. Appreciate her strategic effort here. Paul. I look at the currency markets right now. And I don't know how you make a bet given the geopolitics and particularly Chinese trade. Yeah. Exactly. Right. I was just you know, I was just looking at the sterling has been so stable around at one thirty level, given, you know, which I find pretty pretty interesting, given the continued uncertainty around Brexit. You know, I'm not sure what's on the table. What's off the table? But currency traders seem to be pretty comfortable with sterling right around this level, which I think is pretty interesting. We'd also know Turkish lira we've really not done much on this today. But the last two days for Turkish lira off is symbol elections. And the challenges that Mr. earn faces with his electorate five point nine eight. I'll call it five point nine nine and we've seen a. Two day burst weaker Turkish lira up to six point one four which is dramatic. I haven't done much work on that. But nevertheless out into more. Recent new territory is some would say as well negative twenty seven six minutes to trading. Make it five minutes to trading doubt negative to twenty two that this down to.
"jane foley" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"All right, Michael. Thank you. It is now five twenty on Wall Street live from the Bloomberg interactive brokers studios. This is Bloomberg daybreak. Our guest on this Friday morning. Jane Foley, senior currency analyst at Robbo Bank. Good to have you on Jane, just as we get the latest PM data out of the euro zone. And to say it disappointed might be an understatement. We're watching the euro dropped precipitously on the German manufacturing. What's your reaction to this? Well, once again, I think you quite one year dropping medical shooting into that is defended the German tenure yield is just fooling today. Right. That's it for two or three years, and certainly the market has been shot by this. We go back to the third quarter of last year when we had German DDP probation, a negative number key long after that though, lots of economists that said this is something that is going to rebound, it's one. But of course, it hasn't. Another market is is really thinking. Well, look at this. Pam, I why is it so weak, and the manufacturing number might be weight because of weakness affects school to Asia talking about Lincoln here with with German Chinese guys. And of course, you remember that Germany's an extremely open economy expose huge proportion of its GDP, and that compares, hey, drastically with the US, which is much more close to calling me much less reliant on international trade to Germany. So does the European Central Bank? Have any more tools in its toolbox at this point to try to give the euro zone. A bit more of a lift here. Waiting to see whether the contraction in the third quarter was a one off. Well, you know, I think the market is not coming to terms with the fact that this could be a little bit. We'll start trolling fest Stewart seventy if we look back a few weeks ago. Look to dry d d be president sets sets. He didn't beat about the Bush. You know, he said that they were talking about additional liquidity measures the market hadn't expected that in that spending much. It was going to think it was going to really debate. Whether or not be was gonna come without an eight whole city can can fool which it said, look, we we are concerned about growth painted a fumble deficit picture ECB policy than the market had an anticipated. And again, the numbers that we see now in in the pay. We need to justify that that position for the base of what we want to know. Now is you know, I've seen when ECB act and how necessary is it Dishman liquidity. And that's why at fooling not is why at deals and Germany of dropping, and when you when you talk about the openness of the German economy does the threat of further tariffs from the US way on way on things as well. Yes, absolutely does. Now, of course, something which is big. I think can I didn't horizon ready for quite a few months. And there is a lot of notices at the US really could push back on particular German manufacturing gemin- cars, very sensitive area. And so ready we've had the German car industry. What the European car industry really a trip? You know? I said at diesel gate scandal and also new emissions standards in the German manufacturing industry to there's been a lot of headwinds at to the car industry. But the idea that there could be additional tariffs placed on from the US is is certainly a big concern. And of course, there's the ongoing headwind of Brexit now that the European Union has given the UK a two week extension. I mean does that change things for the European economy? Well, not much mean, clearly there is still a very tangible way you could be headed for for her budget. So we knew at Brexit. Now. I think there's a lot of focus on meet the ramifications in the negative on medications that could have for the UK economy. But it goes before she got to remember that that has the potential negative. I'm f- occasions, but the German economy, and certainly the UK inputs move from the other European economies in the other way, round Germany. Is a big expo of manufactured goods UK is very significant market. Again, we come to talk about causes as one of these major items of the manufacturing goods to. So if they were bakes it on April the twelfth, well, it is going to be another factor. What she's going to create teaches about the growth outlook for the us? I Jane Foley senior currency analyst at rob a Bank. Thanks again. For the insights this morning again as we did get that disappointing data out of the euro zone. As you mentioned, the German tenure yield is.
"jane foley" Discussed on WNYC 93.9 FM
"In the US dollar cost of about twenty percent. So that is assisted in getting the product into that US markets. And so the Levy a slight price difference was possibly a little bit too expensive for them at the time. I know exactly that your prices can go down because you're gone down. And because the currency has changed. And so they take advantage of us, and they will come after you, and they will go you will only get this deal. If you're able to release your price in accordance with the change in the exchange rate. Remember, waking up on the twenty fourth of gene twenty sixteen the day after the referendum. The result was obviously the big news something big was also the value of the pound panic on the markets on a scale not seen since the global financial crisis the fear that this could turn into another one. Drove the pound down twelve percent this morning. The biggest drop in half a century. Jane Foley is head of foreign exchange at Rabobank in the city of London. She remembers the atmosphere and the dealing room in the early hours of June twenty-fourth the day after the referendum. I'm always at my desk at six thirty because we take the handover from Asia. But that day we came to work even earlier. So I was at my desk around four AM a lot of the movement had been done. But there was a lot more to do. But the tone on the desk in the market was one of shock almost unbelieving. What was on the screen? Because the opinion polls had led us to believe something else. There was a real sense of shock, but why should the fall in the value of the pound cost so much angst? And for that matter. So why do currency's rise and fall in value against each other a tool, what should we make of the competing claims over whether falls in the exchange rate or even a good thing or a bad thing. Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England was pretty clear what he thought when arching questions from MP's on the treasury select committee, depreciations don't work. I mean, they have an economic effect. But they're not a good economic strategy may be an outcome of various things. Absolutely stand by that is how you how you make yourself port depreciations or how you make yourself poorer couldn't be clearer. The Matt not everyone agrees, though, former Brexit secretary David Davis reckons, the pounds always being too high from the point of view of industry, but as ever things are all the more complex. Let's go back to referendum night again foreign exchange. Markets were in a state of turmoil says Jane Foley, there was an extreme shock on the phone exchange markets and the result of the referendum. And because this was not intimidated. It was not priced in. And this is why we have such a significant move in the value of sterling dropped around twelve percent or so on the day against the US Stalin. People didn't want to invest in where there was uncertainty about trade links in the next few years from an investment point of view, sterling longest retracted on the way, you just described that was the pound sterling became less attractive. What you really mean is the UK? Attractive? Yes. Yes. Meredith Crowley reader and international economics at Cambridge University. Gives us some more basic, so what drives exchange rates if we wanna compare the exchange rate between two countries say the United Kingdom, the United States. One country's currency is going to be stronger or you're going to have one unit of pound sterling combine more dollars, if Stirling stronger that tends to happen when there's more demand for British currency. So for example, if investors around the world want to invest in the UK because they think the economy there will be strong going forward and returns on investing in UK economy going to be high. That's getting crease the demand for pound sterling and the pound sterling would tend to appreciate or become more valuable relative to the dollar. So in general, we think that a currency is stronger when in the economy for that country is stronger, that's probably the most important determinant. We'll come on to other determinants of a currency's value in a minute. But Meredith Crowley goes onto me. An important point about the effects of a fall in the value of the pound, the real downside of a depreciation though is the purchasing power of everybody in the country has declined. So if I normally spend twenty percent of my income on imported goods, whether they be oranges from Morocco or sweaters from France, whatever. Now, all of those imported things that I purchase have become more expensive. And so that sort of the downside, so my wages. Look like, they haven't changed in what we say. Nominal terms. I'm still bringing home the same number of sterling each week that I brought home before the depreciation, but the price of things that I like to buy is going to go up sooner or later as this movement at the exchange rate starts to move through imported goods and then into the retail sector selling dropped, and it meant that on the world stage. We in the UK was suddenly will poor we had decided then that day. To buy an apartment in in Spain. We suddenly would find that. We can no longer afford department that we could the day before. So all of our assets in the UK was suddenly valued on a much lower basis. Jane, Foley, agreeing that a diving exchange rate reflects a lack of confidence in the British colony and makes us worse off because it reduces the real value of our incomes, buying stuff abroad be an apartment or a meal in Spanish restaurant is more expensive and on the domestic front there is broad consensus. That prices are good two percent higher today than they would have been had the post twenty sixteen foam in the value of the pound not happened. Jane Foley, again in the UK, we import approximately forty percent of our food. We also import now around about thirty six percent of our energy. We look UK inflation after the twenty sixteen referendum after sterling when he dropped very heavily. Yes. We have seen you came and going higher. We've seen food prices go by and of course had. It impacts the energy prices as well often accuses is support people that are hurt. Most by this. The simplest reason is that the poor people tend to spend a large proportion of their income by necessity such as food or if they have a car putting patrilineal in their car. So how can it be that? There is any confusion over whether or not to welcome it falls. The answer is the exchange rate is just acting as a safety valve the consequences of being locked into an overvalued pound. Could be even worse. What I think we saw after the referendum essentially investors in the UK were looking to the long-term and saying the UK's likely to become less competitive against its major trading partner. So the majority of our goods and services, go to the European Union. And we know that if we leave the European single market, we will see more frictions in our trading relationship. And that essentially means it'll be more costly for business here in the UK to export its goods and services to the. Rest of Europe. So essentially market participants are looking at that and say they're allowing the exchange rate so in a way act as a safety valve and make it easier for the U K to be competitive now to meet that higher trading frictions, if you like that's rain Newsom Smith chief economist at the confederation of British industry, agreeing that the fall in the value of the pound reflected increased concerns over the UK economy, but pointing out that the full might also cushion UK business from some of the additional cost of trade with the EU. Interestingly Jane, Foley, used exactly that same metaphor of the exchange rate as safety valve. There are some upsides to a week abandoned unless exporters would suggest that that should make their exports cheaper in an effort should be a positive on that frontal. And also we got to remember that having the facts will exchange rate is a good safety valve in in terms. Of of a crisis is after the global financial crisis economy, obviously was hit quite strongly. The exchange rate push lower. And this is what's supposed to happen. It should have taken some of the heat out of the pressure on on the economy and tentative would be for people to take a real wage cut, and that is clearly more painful. So there are good reasons why an exchange rate will move lower without a shadow of a doubt. Jane Foley, from rob a Bank also makes the point that exporters tend to like a lower pound. It can make British companies more competitive abroad mic. Ventola runs a small business based in LeicesteR that manufactures and installs lighting equipment. He's found the depreciation of sterling quite a helped his plans to expand overseas. We moved into a number of Middle Eastern projects about six years ago. And then decided that I wanted to sort of try and look at the US market, but was subsequently advised not to sort of rush into that markets is a big is tough nut to crack basically as probably taken four to five years of working. Gets into the stage. We are now. And then since the Brexit vote and the pound obviously, losing a lot of strength against the dollar. I think that is speed the process up because a lot of people we was talking to at the time was it's just a little bit too expensive. Is there anything we can do on the price of which you know, where the wasn't now flexibility for almost immediately after Brexit and seeing how the pounds been affected. And now, it's so stay that way. Unless people were talking to they've seen a reduction in in the US dollar cost of about twenty percent. So that assisted in getting the product into let US markets, and so of alleviated slight price difference was might possibly a little bit too expensive for them at the time so two or three years ago, you are a little bit too expensive. And now you'll pretty competitive in the US market because of what's happened to the pound. It's been a great benefactor. It was a benefit because you were already in the Middle East. You're already thinking about truth thinking about the US and. And you've clearly put years and years and years of work into building these markets. True. That's a perfect example of how weaker pound can help British business. It makes them more competitive when selling abroad. The other key to mix story though, is they been planning that move into the US market for years businesses. Can't suddenly enter a new market just because the exchange rate falls it takes time. So even if they're all benefits, they'll take a long while to show up. In the meantime, consumers lose what's more for some businesses. The apparent benefit of a currency depreciation can be complicated, by other factors. We're actually as a nation. Much more successful selling services abroad, then selling manufactured goods one successful exports of services is Richard Balki who runs in Potter UK based trading firm that does a lot of business overseas. We want to queens water export in two thousand thirteen and historically a lot of our revenue has come from overseas. Both in the US. And in Europe Europe is our biggest market. It's the lion's share. Before the referendum vote. Now, obviously this program is really about exchange rates, and how it impacts businesses, and we usually think of as exporters when the when the power goes down exporters gain Whoopee, we can now sell more staff price and make more profit by selling into.
"jane foley" Discussed on KQED Radio
"They may be an outcome of various things. Absolutely stand by that. It's how you how you make yourself port. Depreciations are how you make yourself poorer couldn't be clearer. The Matt not everyone agrees, though, former Brexit secretary David Davis reckons, the pounds always being too high from the point of view of industry, but as ever things are all the more complex. Let's go back to referendum night again foreign exchange. Markets were in a state of turmoil says Jane Foley, there was an extreme shock on the financial markets and the result of the referendum. And because this was not intimidated, it was not pricing. And this is why we had such a significant move in the value of sterling dropped around twelve percent or so on the day against the US Stalin. People didn't want to invest in Konami where there was uncertainty about trade links in the next few years from an investment point of view, sterling along the way, you just described that was the pound sterling became less attractive. What you really mean is the UK? Attractive? Yes. Yes. Meredith Crowley and international economics at Cambridge University. Gives us a more basics, and what drives exchange rates if we want to compare the exchange rate between two countries say the United Kingdom, the United States. One country's currency is going to be stronger or you're going to have one unit of pound sterling combined more dollars sterling stronger that tends to happen when there's more demand for British currency. So for example, if investors around the world wants to invest in the UK because they think the economy there will be strong going forward and returns on investing in the UK economy are going to be high. That's getting crease the demand for pound sterling and the pound sterling win tend to appreciate or become more valuable relative to the dollar. So in general, we think that a currency is stronger when the economy for that country is stronger, that's probably the most important determinant. We'll come on to other determinants of a currency's value in a minute. But Meredith Crowley goes onto me. An important point about the effects of a fall in the value of the pound, the real downside of a depreciation now is the purchasing power of everybody in the country has declined. So if I normally spend twenty percent of my income on imported goods, whether they be oranges from Morocco or sweaters from France, whatever. Now, all of those imported things that I purchase have become more expensive. And so that sort of the downside, so my wages. Look like, they haven't changed in what we say. Nominal terms. I'm still bringing home the same number of sterling each week that I brought home before the depreciation, but the price of things that I like to buy is going to go up sooner or later as this movement at the exchange rate starts to move through imported goods and then into the retail sector selling dropped on the world stage. We in the UK was Sunday will pour if we had decided then that day. To buy an apartment in Spain. We suddenly would find that week. No longer afford department that we could the day before say all of our assets in the UK was suddenly valued on much lower basis. Jane, Foley, agreeing that a diving exchange rate reflects a lack of confidence in the British economy and makes us worse off because it reduces the real value of our incomes, buying stuff abroad be an apartment or a meal in Spanish restaurant is more expensive and on the domestic front there is broad consensus. That prices are a good two percent higher today than they would have been had the post twenty sixteen fall in the value of the pound not happened. Jane Foley, again in the UK, we import approximately forty percent of our food. We also import now around about thirty six percent of our energy. We look at UK inflation after the twenty sixteen referendum after sterling dropped very heavily. Yes. We have seen you came flation going higher food prices, go high, and of course. Impacts the energy prices as well often acoustics support people that by this. And the simplest reason is that the poor people tend to spend a larger proportion of their income by the society such as food or if they have a car, putting patrilineal Alexa. So how can it be that? There is any confusion over whether or not to welcome. It part of the answer is the exchange rate is just acting as a safety valve the consequences of being locked into an overvalued pound. Could be even worse. What I think we saw after the referendum is essentially investors in the UK were looking to the long-term and saying the UK's likely to become less competitive against its major trading partner. So the majority of our goods and services, go to the European Union. And we know that if we leave the European single market, we will see more frictions in our trading relationship and not essentially means it'll be more costly for business here in the UK to export its goods and services to the rest of Europe. So essentially market participants looking at that and say they're allowing the exchange rate so in a way act as a safety valve and make it easier for the UK to be competitive now to meet that higher trading frictions if you like that's rain Newson Smith chief. The confederation of British industry agreeing that the fall in the value of the pound reflected increased concerns over the UK economy, but pointing out the full might also cushion UK business from some of the additional costs of trade with the EU. Interestingly Jane, Foley, used exactly that same metaphor of the exchange rate as safety valve. There are some upsides to a week abandoned. Enlist exporters would suggest that that should make their exports cheaper in an effort should be positive on that frontal. And also we got to remember that having the flexible exchange rate is a good safety valve in in terms of of a crisis. It this is after the global financial crisis that you can me obviously was it quite strongly the exchange rate push lower. And this is what's supposed to happen. It should have taken some of the heat out of the pressure on the economy, an alternative would be for people to take a real wage cotton. And that is clearly more painful. There are good reasons. Why an exchange rate will move lower without a shadow of a doubt. Jane Foley, from rob a Bank also makes the point that exporters tend to like a lower pound. He can make British companies more competitive abroad mic. Ventola runs a small business based in LeicesteR the manufactures and installs lighting equipment. He's found the depreciation of sterling quite a help to his plans to expand overseas. We moved into a number of Middle Eastern projects about six years ago. And then I decided that I wanted to sort of try and look at the US market, but was subsequently advised. Not to sort of rush into marks is a big is tough nut to crack. Basically probably taken four to five years of working gets into the stage. We are now. And then since the Brexit vote and the pound obviously, losing a loss of extremes against the dollar. I think that's as speed the process up because a lot of people we were talking to at the time was just a little bit too expensive. Is there anything we can do on the price of which you know, where the wasn't now flexibility for almost immediately after Brexit and seeing how the pounds been affected. And now it's so stay that way of people were talking to they've seen the reduction in in the US dollar cost of about twenty percent. So that is assisted in getting the product into US small kitchen so of alleviated slight price difference was might possibly a little bit too expensive for them at the time. So two or three years ago you are a little bit too expensive. And now you'll pretty competitive in the US market because of what's happened to the power. It's been a great benefactor the benefit because you were already in the Middle East. You're already thinking about thinking about the US, and you've clearly put years and years and years of work into building these markets true. That's a perfect example of how weaker pound can help British business. It makes them more competitive when selling abroad. The other key to mix story, though is they'd been planning that move into the US market for years businesses. Can't suddenly enter a new market just because the exchange rate falls it takes time. So even if there are benefits they'll take a long while to show up. In the meantime, consumers lose what's more for some businesses. The apparent benefit of a currency depreciation can be complicated, by other factors. We're actually as a nation much more successful selling services abroad than selling manufactured goods. One. Successful exports of services is Richard Balki who runs in Potter UK based trading firm that does a lot of business overseas. We want to queens water export in twenty thirteen and historically a lot of our revenues come from overseas. Both in the US. And in Europe Europe is our biggest market. It's the lion's share. Before the referendum vote. Now, obviously this program is really about exchange rates, and how packs business isn't we usually think as exporters when the when the power goes down exporters game Whoopee weakened now sell most offer price and make more profit by selling in the countries. Now that anything that's been quite your experience. No, there's an element of that. So definitely when sterling values the revenue that we make in. Let's say Europe is worth more in pounds than it used to be. There were two butts though to that on the first one is that we're dealing most of the time with professional procurement negotiators, and they know exactly that your prices can go down because your costs have gone down. And because the currency has changed. And so they take advantage of that. And they will come after you, and they will go you will only get this deal. If you're able to reduce your price in accordance with the change in the exchange rate. So that's the first kind of but. The second is that the reason the exchange rate has gone down is the people are less confidence in our economy, less confident in our ability to deliver. And so you K organizations become frankly, less popular in economic terms. But also in attitudinal terms and balance certainty about what actually is going to be light trading with the British company in twenty twenty has I would say had quite an impact on revenue ready. This year. So Richard story. Remember, his company is a winner of a queens award wreck sports is there any benefit from the lower pounders be much more than offset by greater uncertainty and.
"jane foley" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Dodgy dice. It's a big one three hundred four thousand jobs. John added in January three hundred four thousand almost twice what economists were forecasting the prior month. Doe revised a bit lower to two hundred twenty two thousand unemployment rate bouncing up a bit. The four percent. The payrolls the unemployment rate. Don't always move lockstep average hourly earnings month over month. Disappointing up just point one percent year over year holding steady at three point two percent. So again, the headline number nonfarm payrolls. Topping three hundred thousand three hundred and four thousand to be exact January unemployment four percent. This is Bloomberg radio. Let's go back to New York Vinnie. Thank you very much and futures bounce off session. Lows on the S and P five hundred almost unchanged on the S and P five hundred at the moment after being lower by ran about a third of one percent, and he FX market. That's all it was a touch softer as well. It stays weaker by roundabout eight tenths of one percent. And then the bond market responding to a really big payrolls. Number up across the cafe, Tom just bought basis points or so no trauma. But Sunday that is a big drama in mix. But you'll you'll love the big number, and I've got a revision of almost one hundred thousand I'm looking here. John for the some revisions. What are you got you're waving at I just want to go through through the sponsorship, Tom. Oh, please go to remember that the data is brought to us by Commonwealth for rethink cutting. The number one hour broke data that JD power has named passed an independent advisor satisfaction among financial investment firms five times in a row. Learn more Commonwealth dot com. I just got different went to Vinnie before I read that because it was just such a big Jim Glassman within. This help us with labor force change six hundred thirty nine thousand one hundred and twenty seven thousand four hundred nineteen thousand a head and we finally get flat a little bit negative on labor force change. What is labor force change yet? Jim glassman. I think I'd be careful with these. They do population adjustments. Thanks tend to break in January. So sometimes looking at the change in January is misleading. But I think it's you know, what probably what's going on. Here is the strong markets. Pulling people back in we're pulling people into the labor force, which is why didn't go didn't go down when you had strong job growth. So I think it's I think it'd be careful with the household survey report in the month of January when you poppulation breaks earning year-over-year wage growth, three point one eight percent rounded up three point two percent. Not much movement there. Right. John Farrow much movement. It's hotel. Anything else? Jim. No across the board. Good job gains industries in this John Farrow mentioned churn to the market. We are negatively fishers. Come back a little bit negative earlier. Jane Foley, joining us now from rob a Bank. We really wanted to do this two fold in from the job economy over to all else, we see. And of course, this is off of what we heard from Jim Glassman, and Bruce hasn't been his colleague at P Morgan about the importance of the Powell meeting. Jane Foley, get us from the fed meeting to this jobs report to how you're gonna Frayne February given what Powell said and given what this jobs report says. Well, of course. Report. I mean, if your disappointment here, it is with the hourly earnings she said, it's fatty flats months to month, a little bit disappointing note point one percent course that perhaps as allowed pal allowed at the other FOMC officials to be a bit more relaxed when it comes to fed policy. Now, they stay a lot of cool set since they started with this economic cycle and yet. Not inflationary battle the hourly earnings number two wage inflation really never took up a lot of traction compared with. Make cycles and therefore step. Back from from hiking interest rates. Now, you can send you frame, even when we've just seen in terms of the fed being mover, lack folding Powell the jobs report the claims number of weeks ago with a dollar call all of our listeners, particularly well global listeners, but particularly across America, see, huge indecision or ambiguity and people's dollar. Call report can rob a Bank be bold about a US dollar. Call right now. Well, I think when we talk about the we've got to be really careful to talk about it in the context of the time because if you think about what the Powell the fed has done this week, if you think about that in contrast to the position that they have to November they've really stepped up they become much. We'll dovish than they were. And yes, you can isolate that and said, well, surely that's a story for for the daughter. The market is no longer pricing in interest rate hikes, in the way, they were just a couple of months ago. However, we've got to put that into what's going on. And look at what's going on in years. I look at the exact market step back in terms of expectations about DC. It's it's the salary. Not look certainly Donna fundamentals, but you've also a sorry not looking in terms of out sweaty. Yes. Okay. So that the dovish fat is a shot in the arm perhaps to expectations and Miscavige. You've got slowing. You've got various big forecast is warning about downward revisions to global growth, but the trade will still you've got Europe slowing is that a positive environment protection emerging markets. I know and as a way to say no to that. Then it's very difficult to really believe in a very bearish pitcher for the dollar. Well, I mean three month moving average. I'm trying to get it up here right now, there is two hundred and forty-one thousand I mean, Jane, it is a job machine right now in America, two hundred and forty-one thousand three months moving average of jobs from where you sit looking at America. How alone are we in our job excellence? Well, it's pretty good. And again, it again, if you compare that to the data today to that we had out of Europe today looks like Italy again in recession we've had a lot of disappointments from Germany in the last few months Europeans. Why we do? European businesses worried that if China agrees with Trump and decides to. Excellent european. European jobs. They're going to be lost. As a consequence of that. There's an awful lot of headwinds sweat. And that is the context of what you've got to see the man you got to see it in in terms of the salary elsewhere as well, if you're just joining us, Jane Foley, rob a Bank thrilled. She's with us today. We wanna go little international off of the jobs report. Because what we saw from chairman Paul this week. I really want to emphasize folks, our sitting on our moving averages three months moving average to forty one six month moving average, roughly two forty two twelve month moving average something like two twenty four. I'll get those numbers better in a moment. But that is a job-creating machine. America, you mentioned Jane, we've got a real slowdown in Europe. And then there's John Farrell mentioned earlier, we've got this huge oddities of Japan. Are you walking into rob a Bank every day in London, just assuming global disinflation? Well, it's very difficult intended Japan for them sent to try and create inflation liquid something like two point five four vacancies to every job seeker, and yet they cannot create any wage inflation. Now, there were lessons that I think for the rest of the the detect they battled trying at create wage inflation for longer than most other g ten countries, but it is a trend everywhere else. And again, we see this in the Pavos data today, despite amounts of jobs have been created. But does that Virginians day? Well, it riders no point one percent. And this is something I think we can take heed from Japan and juggles, this is a theme in terms of the Japan. It is difficult for them to create inflation expectations energy create motivation to see, but perhaps not. And and I think this isn't something which is just which is going to pass quickly. It's a structural thing. Many reasons whatever. The station. And this is something which I think police makers really have to try and facing and and. Wage inflation that we need. Jane foley. Thank you so much for being with us today. She is rob a Bank wonderful ever with us. And we're gonna continue a Jane Foley. There's a headline coming out, which is exceptionally important headline within the history of our international relations in the United States United states withdrawing from nuclear treaty with Russia. Trump says this is the United States. This is the headline from boom, Bloomberg this has been widely anticipated. But there is the headline US withdrawing from nuclear treaty with Russia. President Trump says are Michael Mckee with a visceral knowledge of this. I believe Colin if you could effort, Mr. Mckee that would be a good Mr. Mckee with Gorbachev. And Reagan at Ray Vic years ago decades ago, I'm as well say, and here's a sea-change announcement of the US withdrawing from the nuclear treaty with Russia will have much more on this. Let me get back to the jobs report with a little tick. Yup. And jobs. You heard Jane Foley focusing on a tepid monthly wage statistic. Which within the numbers comes out to? Okay. Yearly data futures up four. Dow futures up seventy two a little bit of a turn to the market. But boy, I'll tell you the Powell reset on yields is a story of the day, even bigger than the jobs report. Let me run through the three yields of the full faith credit u s two point four seven and the two year your ten year benchmark two point six four and the thirty year bond, which frankly, folks, I've been watching a lot with the Dow ten thousand three percent kind of thing to four digits two point nine nine five six. So we just below three percent today on the yield and thirty year bond with that you get some curve steepening, which is a little bit unique again coming off Powell not jobs report. Gold up to thirteen twenty six as well. Then Jane Foley space yen one zero eight ninety seven euro one fourteen. Seventy again, the.
"jane foley" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"This is Bloomberg daybreak Europe extending Russia is going to be an opportunity for reform in China. Think liquidity more generally across financial markets is an issue and a concern. Thanks. In a much better place than they were five years ago. It wouldn't be great to have a go now trae conflict with the US won't dig to anybody else. I'm never be one westerly will be new madman. If you think you can Bloomberg daybreak on Bloomberg radio. In london. I'm Anna Edwards and from Berlin. You're listening to daybreak Europe on London DA did you indeed? And it's just gone nine o'clock here in London, ten o'clock, if you're in Berlin with Matt Miller, let's check the markets than we do that. Every fifteen minutes on Bloomberg radio. The stock six hundred this Monday down by half a percent, the Footsie-100 down by four tenths the Carol down six tenths the Dax down four tenths of a percent. So we see losses really for for all of these major markets in Europe this morning, US futures also point lawyer lower down by between five and six tenths of a percent for the major indexes there over in the Asian session. We saw losses of around an eighth of a percent so slightly more muted losses in the Asian session. There's a host of things to watch this week from trade talks to the latest fed meeting Tekere. So no doubt that'll keep all pretty busy but markets choosing to take a fairly grim view of things. I suppose this morning, we price the inside the optimism around at least a temporary enter the shutdown in the US session on Friday. And so part of that is already in the price. Let's check some other assets for you. Oil prices are weaker as we watch what's going on in the recount in the United States, but also Venezuelan tensions. And what that might do. To supply Brent is down by one point four percent at sixty seventy five WTI at fifty to eighty one down by one point six percent US treasuries, we see a little bit of buying a fixed income as we see money coming out of equities. And so as a result treasury yields little weaker down at two point seven four is the yield on the US tenure right now. The dollar index is fairly flat fairly range-bound this morning. The yen is getting a little bit of a boost. So we are slightly risk off this morning in FX just as we are in stocks in treasuries. Elsewhere, let's just check the pound for you. Because it's a big week with votes coming up tomorrow in the house of Commons on various amendments. We down by two tenths of a percent on the pound against the dollar on cable one thirty one sixty-nine, Matt. All right. Let's talk a little bit about that right now. Because I think the cable rate is another interesting. Data point where you can see it as dour today, but it's coming from such a high level that it's optimism priced in. Jane Foley, joins us head of FX strategy Rabbo Bank in the London studio. And Jane, we've got this. We had this fantastic quote in the open of the show where an incredibly posh British man says I don't think you could possibly forecast the future of the pound, but you could have seen this coming right as as a no deal. Brexit scenario is more and more likely to pound just continues to rise. Well, that's right. And what's quite interesting is that if you look really at the focus of most commentators banks in another independence, for instance, the consensus has always been that they will not be a hard Brexit. So the consensus efforts it was being pointing towards some sort of recovery in sterling and setting your views is quite similar along the lines of that consensus in our view has been that a three months horizon sterling would would rally because we would not have this. Heartbreak. Exit. But because the market is still just way not the probabilities and the possibilities. The country's AKU still on course, legally for for a hard Brexit. We need to have some sort of legal framework in place to prevent that. And right now, the market is an anticipation that we will have an amendment passed by parliament this week that will delay article fifty. But of course, there are risks to that if article fifty is going to be delayed, it needs to be agreed by all of the other countries within the EU, they need a good reason to to agree to delay it, and then of course, you have to consider how long is delay gonna before. And does that mean that say it's delayed until the end of the year? Does that mean that a hard Brexit again becomes a possibility to the end of the year? So there's lots of still a lot of uncertainty the sterling traders to worry about in in the months ahead. Guess so it seems so yes than the EU twenty-seven has made the point on a number of times, Jane that if you're gonna ask for a delay. It needs to come with specific reason as you point out, you have to know what the delay. You point out. So I was not mocking. The that impression. I was doing an impression of it was Iain Duncan Smith. And indeed he has previously told me, although he won't forecast. The future of the pound. He definitely thinks the UK is leaving on March twenty nine he said, he told me there's no question about it. No, come what may the UK will leave the EU on March twenty nine? So does he see that as easier to predict the future? I wonder I wonder as I mean, generally, then do you think that we what we eat? There's been too much looking for the positives in in this. You said was something on TV. That was interesting. You said it trend, the pound trades with sort of what remain mindset mindset that. Well, if you think about it, I suppose if we go back to the referendum back in June twenty sixteen the market was shocked that we had a an leave at come for that referendum and sterling dropped significantly now. Now, clearly the market was assuming there would be remain. And I think again, it's assuming that they will be not an no deal on March the twenty nine so if you think about it as as the market is predominantly within the UK based in London London has remain a majority, and especially the rest of the market is particular newest early musicals based in the euro-zone and many people in years and cannot understand why the UK would would vote to leave. So there is a risk here that the market again is trade in its book. It's too complacent in this view that all this will never happen. It's not logical at no one particular. What's it? But the the fact of the matter is as we stand here today, we are on course, for a hard Brexit, and we do need some sort of legal change. Probably this amendment is. Really put that out of the window. What's that tomorrow? Do we get this? What is the amendment? And is it voted on tomorrow? Yes. Is this is the amendment four did originally actually by labor and a MP Nick bowl? Exactly. So we did have an indication various indications from the labor party that they potentially would back it. And if that's the case, it looks like there would be a majority in parliament to push it through obviously, we have to wait and see. But if pursued it would try and force Theresa May to extend article fifty, but of course, again, we do come back to this technical point. It does need to be agreed by all of the other EU countries. Now, I think it probably would be fixing the other countries would would want to to carry the responsibility of forcing not by not agreeing to that. But we also have to assume that they would agree to some sort of. A particular length of a delay. Would that be nine months? Would it be a year? It seems to me it would be proximity that sort of term, but again will the UK parliament at get itself out a gridlock in that time. Yeah. Be interesting to see what members of the cabinet votes on this amendments as well. Because some of them are known to want to rule out a no deal Brexit, whether they're we give him the political freedom to do that though. Members of the cabinet. That's a to the government's line, obviously that will be crucial to what let me ask you. Also, what's going? What what do you think of the shutdown story in the United States? We've been talking on earlier about whether abo-about which assets essentially benefit is positive if we see the shutdown coming to an end at least temporarily. Well, I mean, it should be good for for confidence. And therefore, it should be good for the economy. But I think everyone knows that this is this is possibly a temporary reopening. So Donald Trump has said that he may in three weeks time at push this back if there isn't a. Agreement about the funding for his wall. And again, so we have this gridlock there between the Democrats clearly in charge of that the person rings and the President Trump's that funding for his will. So we don't know what's going to happen in three weeks time. So I think it's very difficult for people to take too much of a position on on this news because it could be reversed quite soon. Let me just quickly ask you about the euro dollar here at the beginning of the year of one thought euro is going to one Twenty-one twenty-five as the fed continue to raise rates and the struggled to do. So now, it looks like the fed is gonna pause or possibly hold where do you see the euro dollar? Well, at the beginning of the year, the market was depressing much, we'll sow outlook for for the US. And this was really because he ended November the market began to revise it salad for US growth and revise its outlook. Therefore for the Federal Reserve now, I think since the middle of January the market doesn't step began to think. Well, what about the outlook for the euro? What about the outlook for the year is there, and it's taken aboard at this much worse than expected data for Germany and other European countries and begun to think my goodness can easily be really hike interest rates this year? So not only have we have the soured outlook for the dollar. But we've got this our data for the for the euro. And I think we've got this sort of sparring competition we've had this for the last few weeks. I think this will carry on as the market. Reevaluates the news as and when it comes in. So I think we're going to have that much direction in the near term for euro dollar. I think it's going to be up and down. But we do have this European parliamentary elections for the euro in the spring, and and I think though in into those we could have a mix of negative economic and political news for the euro. Okay. Jane, thank you very much in Foley, head of FX strategy it rob a Bank here with us in our London studio. Let's get up to date with global news. He's been bags Marcus concert. Thank you very much on the US. China will hold a pivotal round of talks this week ended attempt to end their trade war. Bloomberg's china. Correspondent Tom MacKenzie has the latest from Beijing Chinese vice-premier, Leo. An US Trade Representative Robert lighthizer meet in Washington on January thirtieth for talks aimed at ending the trade standoff. Join us offer to buy outs where trillion dollars of US goods. But the Trump administration is pushing for structural changes around.
"jane foley" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Back to your markets. Let's actually talk a little bit of currencies. I'm delighted to welcome here in the studio. Jane Foley, head of FX strategy Rabbo Bank. And she joins us now. J let's start with Brexit. Happy twenty nine hundred and it seems that we're in a stalemate. Right. An and there's I can't really see that that easy way out. And so why is pound falling off a cliff? I think this is the question, I think investors probably sought to get a little bit nervous. Now. Investors are taking the view that there is real no appetite in parliament for a hard Brexit, and therefore already a Brexit. But I think the maybe a little bit of complacency because if you think about Theresa May, and the and the roots that she could take it seems that there isn't an easy route either way say, for instance, if she goes down the customs union, which I think is she's she's rude out. She would get the labor and peace and Bauchi might get a parliamentary majority for that. But she would risk. Splitting own party. Is that something that she's willing to do today? We've got newspaper reports suggestion that if she were to answer second referendum. She could spit at the labor party's in. Meaning that they may not be a parliamentary majority for that either. So it's very very difficult for her to find some sort of consensus that works, and that doesn't really split particularly her own party. And that means that whilst investors. I love the V. Well, no one really wants a hard Brexit. Well, this new majority for any other option either. And this means I think that if as we go perhaps over the next ten days, or so if we don't get some sort of parliamentary noise that we are they're going to have a rather than have a delay or enough another referendum, which many investors appear to be betting on. Then. I think stunning could be little bit vulnerable. Okay. So let's say that, you know, they're voting again parliament is voting January twenty nine th let's say this also doesn't get through and again word into stalemate. Does Theresa May have to go. And how do, you know, take that news? Well, if Theresa May went it wouldn't necessarily help the Brexit debate. So if she went there would be even more delay because they would have to be another leadership election. And this is a seeming. She resigns now as it stands, it doesn't appear that labor would get very far in another no-confidence fake decadent and that sounded any point. But we have had the Liberal Democrats saying that they are unwilling to back the labor party on any other at no confidence vote at the moment, unless they were to back a second referendum and many labor and peace probably Willie unwilling to back a second referendum because they are representing constituencies where they will leave votes. So again, there's another stalemate on on that point of view. I do think that it time would only be running out of those new leadership election. I didn't think that the parties is probably gonna push for her resignation at this stage. And let's face it. This is a poison chalice. I think he ever becomes the next conservative party leader would rather have some sort of resolution to to Brexit before they they take on the reins as agenda at this point, given everything that we've talked about what what is the. Chance actually of a no deal Brexit. I I still think it's it's fairly significant. Mclane isn't one well. Well, yes, potentially. At least legally technically that is what we are now on cost to do. So we need to have some legislation to knock us off. That course and the closer we get too much the twenty nine without some sort of change. Then surely that probability of Brexit. Brexit rises. Thanks much. We'll talk a little bit more about the market perception. And and actually maybe I was listening something by Mr. is of the big short. And who was saying the concern in the markets is that they're badly position. Because a lot of people that manage pensions. We're actually pro remained coming up. We have plenty more with Jane Foley. We'll talk dollar.
"jane foley" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Wrapping up earning season for the big banks the results happening to as some twenty stoke pain and looking ahead to US tank results net Netflix kicking things off after the closing bell today from New York City this Thursday morning live from the Bloomberg interactive brokers studio good morning to you futures negative. Just a third of one percent on the S and P five hundred in the FX market, the shape of things as follows just a little bit of risk aversion. Some yen strength out there. Dalian moving lower by a couple of one percent in the bond market, the shape of things as follows treasury yields coming in a single basis point on a ten year to two point seven one percent on your radio this morning. We are lower a basis point also to two point five three three percent. We wrap up the earnings season on Wall Street with Morgan Stanley. Those numbers are imminent when they drop across the Bloomberg. We'll bring you some of the headlines and some of the commentary once the earnings call starts a little bit later this morning. So worldwide you've got to say the recession phase of December to some investors at least already feeling like. A distant memory. We've had the C suite on Wall Street speaking pretty optimistically about twenty nineteen seeing few signs of an imminent turned down. So what's ahead for this market? Jane Foley, joining us, rob a Bank, head of FX strategy and senior currency analyst. We have faded much of December already Jane before the data has validated that move especially over in China. And in Asia as well you thoughts on that. I think they really could Mark a change in the market lead to take the slow progress, particularly with respect to the us economy. But I think I think January I think the market beginning to to focus more on for you. But what we've seen of course is slower data from Germany. We see a cool could even a technical recession. Germany at the end of last year that may not happen. The indication that we got from the German authorities is that we what we saw in second half of last year was very next to no growth, and hence, we have this sparring much if you can in your dollar with with the fundamentals of both of those major currencies having deteriorated. So what's driving your daughter? What are the dominant force is going to drive that currency pair over the several the next several months, Jane? Competition. I I think it has been for quite some time some weeks at least pretty easy to put together a deteriorate version of fundamentals for the dollar in terms of grace concerns, takes effect, policy, etc. But I think in the next few weeks muck really does need to come to terms with. What does that mean for the what does that make the European question? We do have any she policy meeting coming up in the next week will two and that's going to be important because in DC half signal that they may be hiking interest rate potentially in December. That's what he likes the market to believe last time around. But since then it's me thinking, well, you know, what? It's Rhode liquidity you're gonna be potentially, tell trays, etc. I think the market needs to reconcile it's outlook for the the the SE be in terms of the guidance. That is officially out that John. It's interesting to me on the F YMCA on the Federal Reserve. The most hawkish Representative of the FOMC s the George has backed away from an imminent interest rate hike rate hikes anytime soon, yet one of the most hawkish members of the European central banks have been Loughton schlager is still talking about rate hikes at the bay. Why is that still happening on the governing council the European Central Bank? Why they still having this discussion because nobody I speak to believes the can deliver a rate hike against the backdrop to the European economy has right now. I think one of the reasons for that is. If we if we look at the level of interest rates in the beach. It's no wonder that they want to know my did want to pull back at some ammunition. If they do hike interest rates, then surely, they will be having to do that what sort of easing equity on the other hand say some people are talking about, and it may be but tell only other hand, and this very interesting scenario, very interesting situation. And again, this is one that I think the market really does need clarity on. Certainly it does seem just as she logical for distant to understand. Why you see could be an interest rates when you have Germany sledding weight has done in leasing momentum. And and it's not just Germany we've seen we could data from large countries in Europe. Which is actually etc. If at the same time, you have the US learning and China's leading pretty it does seem pets. Thanks, Trump should not particularly logical for the beach pushing ahead with an interesting until you look at the level of the rights, and you begin to understand the some nuno's ation. Consumer spending expects expected to accelerate over the coming wave because our chief Brexit correspondent is going to travel from London over to Switzerland. So as he progresses through the continent. I am mansion consumer spending is going to get a left. Tommy. That some of you made it. Street who's very down here from the green is you look at the Jane Foley currency transfer station at Heathrow. It's amazing what she picks up on that. Occurred. Six version someone's making money at Heathrow James money. There is Jane seriously what happens to the sterling euro relationship of actual day to day transactions. If Brexit actually Brexit's. Well, you know, once again, it's it's very difficult. I think for real. Corporates? I think a lot of people who have been able to to remain on the sidelines have remained on the sidelines. But you know, there comes a time where real corporate businesses have to hedge, and they have to get re-involved, and it becomes extremely difficult for them. And so I think the next couple of weeks clearly it's going to be really really crucial a lot of people in the market. And we see this in the price of that team that there will be some delay that will not happen. But of course, as it stand legally, the UK is heading for Brexit on may the twenty nine and I think for investors to then confident that gonna happen. Changing needs to be some legislation in place, but on think of rob a Bank, and I understand there's speculation has currency. What's it gonna do? What's polish are gonna do? I get that. But in the commercial business of hedging business transactions. What actually happens between pound sterling and euro when all of this happens. Well, again back to our customers, and they are asking us the happiness gonna sit back that question in for one protection. But a lot of them will go in some of the protection that they would have on that would've starting starting will start to fall off the books after after March. So they they need to be very considerate in in terms of what is going to their burn exchange. But then, you know, wants to investors can looks the publicity and think, well, you know, what makes a good chance that there could be a delay. We'll take up positions, including me, this is that luxury they have to prepare for hot Brexit because that is what legal is the tension. You're going to happen. And this puts him in a difficult position. They have to spend that money to to make preparations, and that to be honest. I think he's a first consideration the foreign exchange. It's just a complication for them. Jan great to catch up with you. Jane Foley, there rapper Bank head of FX senior currency analyst with this Tom you've gone. Very quiet. All of a sudden, we're just settling in here. It's an odd thing. It was so serious at the green, John, I really did feel foreign I mean, it's a uniquely British thing that's going on here of this the United Kingdom, and it's almost surreal Francine. And I were talking it's almost surreal today to be in the gorgeous hermetically sealed studios, a Queen, Victoria. What's the latest on? What's next? What if we the latest seriously, the latest is the leader of the labour, Mr Corbett is in Hastings, which I know you visited on your beach holidays down to the south, and he is lecturing to the committed labor of their options. If you will. And prime minister may through her spokespeople. His talked about some form of getting to March twenty nine and my basic feeling is it's early in the midday here, and maybe by tonight, they'll be some Ford motion. But as you know, John it really goes to that limitation of if something in X number of days after what we saw two days ago from what I've seen. He wants to take the no deal option off the table, which doesn't really make a lot of sense to me because if you're gonna negotiate with someone you have to communicate them to some degree that you're willing to walk away. If they don't come up with a good deal. So I don't really know what game. Jeremy Corbyn is trying to play this morning with the prime minister, the prime minister is trying to meet with the leaders of each and every individual party. And from what I understand so far, Tom Jeremy Corbyn, refusing to meet her. Oh, yeah. There's no question. I yes, I think that's true the distances profound, and you notice that and all the newspapers I would suggest John at one of the big differences between this in the media of. America. It is amazing the nuances in polarization of the newspapers in London, very very political each newspaper, but historically that has always been the case, Tom the effects market thinks the following absolutely nothing. Cable going nowhere unchanged. One pound one dollar twenty eight eighty six in the equity market for US futures just slightly negative. We are down now points on the S and P five hundred in percentage. Terms down around about a third of one percent bond market just a little bit of risk aversion yields lower by a basis points to seventy one on a US ten year down to fifty four and a US two year and in the FX market, just a touchy yen strength, mild just a little risk aversion. This is Bloomberg. Now, the news in New York.
"jane foley" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"This is Bloomberg radio politics. The change in the dynamics and the racists Bri that exchange in money policy. Trump has been very clear they really wants to roll these regulations back power. They aren't going to give up their nuclear arsenal. Most important witness with be Gary economic experts joke way news insight and analysis from Bloomberg politics if the president veto shit. They will overriding Bloomberg government. We're talking about here is tax and Bloomberg law. This is where the lawyers are going to start earning their money. This is politics policy power and law on Bloomberg radio. Live from the Bloomberg interactive brokers studio, I'm Amy Morris coming up this hour. President Trump plans to deliver a primetime televised address. That's tonight later this week, he'll be traveling to the Mexico border as he battles Democrats over the long, and we'll have more on economic research that shows that it is tougher to find a middle class job in the nation's cities, and I'm June Grasso. Why does supreme court turned down a case by Hollywood icon Olivia to Jalan, but first let's get a check on the markets. Here's Bloomberg's Greg Jarrett. I call her miss Meli still web. Have one hundred three getting up their stock. You're mostly higher but gave back some earlier big gains as investors balanced tech skepticism with the possibility of progress in China trade, docks dollars treasuries a steady and crude crime toward fifty dollars a barrel and expectations. The market will be tightened by OPEC's out. Powercuts? Investors wonder what will the president say the evening requested presumably to discuss the government shutdown and border security. Jane Foley at Rabobank tells Bloomberg the government shutdown is of utmost importance for continuing confidence. Taking the democrat. It's a second fifteen. The people suffering are federal workers, and the outlets. The people. This is something which could be impacting your confidence could team a competent. It has if it runs the longer. We check the markets every fifteen minutes throughout the trading day here on Bloomberg radio S and P five hundred is up one half of one percent of eleven the Dow is up seven tenths percent of a hundred fifty seven and the NASDAQ is up four tenths of a percent of twenty seven ten year is down to thirty seconds would be over two point seven zero percent..
"jane foley" Discussed on The Andrew Klavan Show
"Right now texture is offering my listeners once again fourteen day free trial when you go to texture dot com slash cleveland that's all it will take to convince who fourteen days to try texture for free when you go to texture dot com slash klevan texture dot com slash cleveland you were doing anything else with your life anyways with this will take care of all your time all right so i i just i mean i've been watching this interview that hillary clinton gave with jane foley and the thing that keeps coming to mind you know there were there was this movie i don't know if anybody remembers the movie uh as good as it gets with jack nicholson did you to anybody that he said see here's the thing because the left has created a world in which supposedly virtuous to lie to not say that women are like this manner like that to not say oh there's a lot of crime in the black community you not say oh you know a lot of the guys who commit terrorist acts just happened for some reason to be named mohammed so it virtue is lying that is why you see on so many shows the men are now gangsters so you get the sopranos he get breaking bad either of the men are bad people the reason is is in a world where it's virtuous the lie bad people are the ones who tell the truth right and that's what everybody likes donald trump he breaks the rules he tells the truth to as good as it gets a jack nicholson has as a writer who i can't remember he had a bunch of psychological problems but he just was compulsively speak the truth and of course by the end of the movie they had to cure him of this because that was made him a bad guy rachel they cure am of speaking the truth but the fact is all anybody ever cared about was the first half an hour the movie when he says all these hilarious things and there's one very famous seen when nicholson's the famous writers walking out of his publishers office and the secretary stops him and wants to know how do you write such good women characters here it is.
"jane foley" Discussed on What the Tech
"Well let's uh there's nothing better than the fire tv might penny right now so i want to talk norman will you you of a serious far to be pro i do have a fire tv prime i hated the fire tv now in back to loving the fire tv the wonderful wonderful device well i i do want to talk about that on a whole lot more but i know paul has to go to meeting i'm going to continue this guy stay tuned we'll talk more about what i've been doing using a pc and okhana's in here in a swamp redcing here sunkissed is in the chairman of that they'll send me a couple of questions to talk about this so we'll continue with that i want to thank all our sponsors today go to what's a jiffy network dot com subscribe to us i know the schedules been all over the place it's all paul's fault not mine and i promise you it's gonna it's only going to get better it's only going to get easier the schedules go back to normal worse before it gets better but it will eventually get back it'll get better want what you come back from your vacation but i know know know now then let's go was going to be the worst comeback from my vacations when i do all the moving stuff it's going to be like a week or two after the oca so i i spoke to mary joe we're gonna have mary jane foley on we're going to brad on i got to talk to brad uh i have a couple of wider michael man is going to come on again uh stevie richards a is gonna come on michael men steve richardson person same person different name uh in and i think we're gonna have mike nash ons meet we shall mike onto tomorrow next week what do you think cher was okay with that mike on next week because i think it's an interesting discussion to see where the pc market said and i would change nino for him as someone that's on the inside your and we're on the outside looking in our guys that's it for this week will see all letter.
"jane foley" Discussed on The Dave Ramsey Show
"One hundred thousand okay i love them i mean i would love to try to put more money into that one it off that's the one ied use the rental property cutting and what's happened how much is that when belgium that one valid at about one hundred sixty thousand them at the moment okay and the other houses worth how much it might primary residents in one one hundred in forty thousand jane foley worse close to two hundred thousand all right all right and so in looking at this one of the things i want to encourage you was this louis uh you do have something for retired but you've got your your for one can understand it's got you see it's got twenty thousand at a but i likely to saying about this other rental property you know it's worth one hundred sixty in you allow a hundred on it so just hypothetically imagine for me my friend that you've got intentional and focused about paying that thing off right and let's say that here in about four or five years you got that thing paid off free and clear maybe it's appreciated a little bit more maybe it's closer to one seventy five maybe one eighty and now you only at free and clear an option for that would be to potentially sell that and use that chunk of equity toward your retirement dream yeah with aired when you're when you're thinking about in a retirement you want to think through a few different things one is always want to think longterm hey longterm which a rental property would be considered longterm us good tax advantages there's a tax advantages have rental properties of depreciation all that kind of stuff but the one thing is missing from her portfolio right now is diversification.