1 Episode results for "Jamie Rome"

Run from the Water...

Weather Geeks

39:49 min | 5 months ago

Run from the Water...

"The. Storm surge tropical cycle of those deadly threat me may recall images let him use alison twenty eighteen following categories. Michael after it set nearly fifteen foot wall of. Water. Cows Mexico beach. Florida. If you've ever experienced answers then know how quickly a Hurricane Linda Wall are rushing into home businesses washing away lives and live. Today. We're joined by Jamie Rome leader of the storm surgeon at the National Hurricane Center Jamie will offer inside lift of the Inter workings of this lifesaving agency and it's critical forecast when the. If you've ever heard that raise hide from the win but run from the. Discussion will make understand why gamy thank you for joining us on the word objects cast they thank you for having it out if for those true and blue weather geeks, alum and fans and friends of the program, you might remember the Jamie Rome appeared on the television version of the show several years ago. So it's really I'm really thrilled to have him back here in the. Longer format podcast so that we can dig deeper into what he does. Little background on. Jamie has a battery Masters degree, from North Carolina State University he joined the National Hurricane Center as a Marine forecast through the tropical analysis and forecast rant in nineteen ninety nine he was appointed Hurricane Veterans in Twenty Sixteen and he pointed lead of the storm surge program there in two thousand eight. James Fan Colleague and does some very important work for the nation but. I don't know if he remembers are maybe he's heard the podcast. The first question I always ask has nothing to do with your job is more of a question of how you got interested in weather and climate related that he was something for your childhood a specific storm or did you happen appoint later in? Dow Ironically now for the. A weather grew up in North Carolina and the weather was the the easiest way to get out of going to school which was. Snow Days Baggio. It was the way way to go, and so I didn't really like school in the beginning dom. became very interested in in. Precipitation. RPI, when a weather precipitation. In, in central North Carolina and then. You're used to it in Atlanta. You never really get clean snow in North Carolina as much as you get this this icing and change over in. This really tight rain snow line, and so obviously I became interested in that it wasn't until later maybe a high school in college that hurricanes started to intrigue me A. Is, a kind of approach to Eastern Carolina. I wondered actually one of the producers wanted to want to ask you if you even had a personal encounter with storm surge yourself over the years your early razor years in in. North. Carolina. You know we used to frequent coastal North Carolina quite a bit growing up my family. Did we were big? Big Gift fishing in often we would go to the coast not during the periods of people were most interested in like summer. We would go during fall in springs in you would get these these big nor'easter. Tight. Events or non tropical events and I can't remember one where I was just you. Just fascinated with how the wind could push the water in wakes up along the coast and into the roads in half the amount of Dune erosion could occur with one of these events. So that would have been my first. Encounter where storm, surge? Low, storm surge happened late late in my career certainly wasn't anything I studied in in college or wasn't soda a path, the dice with a set of Al.. You know a lot of people. They know they WANNA. Do tornadoes or severe weather storm surge came late in. It's been the best job I've ever had probably the best job. Our has in I been doing it now for eleven years, and it's just hard ended in doing anything else is so interesting. Well the Nice segue because for the listeners here we're in the midst of well technically as repaving this, we're not in hurricane season although when this airs, we will be a hurricane season starts June bursts. Even we're taking this, we have tropical storm Bertha just off the. Coast to coast are believed projected anything major in his as we were saying before he came on probably too small and in week. Even quick passing through really present a storm surge threat but for the listeners of weather needs podcast Jamie give us A. Third or one what is storm surge and why does it happen why it's so dangerous? Yes, it's literally. The strong winds of storm and it could be any storm doesn't have to be hurricanes but the strong winds of a storm pushed the Ocean George. Land in if the winds are strong enough onto land, which is normally dry. Traditionally, as storm surges linked with hurricanes, tropical cyclones because. That's where you get kind of the strongest winds, but you can get it in any storm system. I'm the produces the you're strong enough wins, and it has to be a the state of a scale issue. So you gotTa have like a a synoptic scale type of weather pattern to you. You can't be more like a Tornado or water style that's just from a scale perspective too small. Apologize, they're trying to keep my mic for those that are listening whether this is a new era of doing the podcast in the covid nineteen errands. So were trying new things, ears of shrimps your audio is clean. So apologize with way coming off their bye head zoom or Google hang out or Bluejeans meeting knows the perennial talk with Conservative you're listening you're getting chuckle about that. So. Would you. Over the years talked about we win certainly gets the most press. Sometimes, it's the most dramatic gas Hurricanes and tropical storms. But I know there have been studies by your former colleagues in colleagues at the national hurricane say waters really will deadliest aspect of hurt newland barring hurricane can you sort of make better toast wiped? Out. I think a wind is is something that's easy for people to understand. Because you see wind on a daily basis whether you live at the coastline are not. In, so it's the part of a hurricane that is easiest sort of wrap your brain around in in comprehend. From a societal perspective on hurricanes are very scary in. So the human nature is you'll to try to understand the threat in reconcile the threats in wind is just an easy one for people to comprehend but we've actually gone back and looked at mortality over the last several decades. From from hurricanes and it turns out that wind is nowhere close to being the. The most dangerous component of a hurricane water is it really catches people by surprise they just don't think water for whatever reason in a hurricane. But if you look at storm surge and freshwater in leading combined three out of four individuals who lose their life in a hurricane, it comes hands of waters. In wind really only takes about one outta ten of the lives lost him so. You we we've gone through this era over the last ten years or so in. You know you've seen this, the weather channel has been a huge partner in his communication across where we're trying to get people to. Think so much about win but think about water I'm in not just coastal folks but inland folks too because we're seeing a real uptick in inland flooding in hurricanes in unfortunately mortality with inland flooding freshwater flooding has been on the rise. This is something that colleagues and I recently published an article in the Ams Bulletin of the ams were redundant they're. Talking about convey the water hazard more. So from rainfall as as we all what has happened with Harvey in Florence in recent years so I certainly resonate with this idea that the water those you will read the Wendy of the storm. is most important that the winds are not dangerous they. They certainly create their own problems. I don't want to underplay that by any. There's been discussion of the game about the staffer your symptoms Gail because it really is a windscale. And milk were like well, it doesn't convey the water threat or at least the ring but it does somewhat can very indirectly the storm surge threat right because the storm surge so tied to to the wind is that right? Editor for we're trying to de emphasize the Saffir Simpson scale. Amish still has some benefit for communicating the wind threat. Especially on the way up is a storm is strengthening has benefit for generating awareness storm in strengthening and from a win perspective is more threatening I'm however the scale is not really good at communicating other hazards such as a storm surge and. End Inland freshwater flooding and tornadoes and things like that I'm. So we've tried to de emphasize it get to look at the whole picture of. Just the wind are. Yet I think Chris mentioned weather channel and other communication partners are I think are key in that because the people like me you're probably the information that you all are are working out of the Hurricane Center and what not? Much of the public relies on the weather channel and local news press even social media for the information they get. Wished I wanNA give it now. Pivot just build on this. Tell us about the National Hurricane Center, how it's organized in wear your storm surge unit bits within A. Great Question I think people are asked that too were relatively small which sort surprises, people most people either this massive. You'll sort of NASA command center, but we actually pretty small building you know were only about fifty or sixty people. In then there's three branches Three units within that. So there's the hurricane specialists unit which most people are familiar with because the unit puts out the hurricane forecast the comb. That's what people are most familiar with. We also have Marie Rain Unit. Which is focused for safety of life at sea. So with all the goods and services that are sort of transported across the Atlantic and Pacific as well as the significant of. People doing you know sort of in the Caribbean during pleasure cruises in these sorts of things. So I mean it any one time that could be ten thousand vessels within our area of responsibility. In so that's a that's a big big big component of our mission which people know about, and in finally we have what's called technology and science branch, which is where storm surge is located. In. It's it's you. So the reason is in technology branch, which is a lot of people. Ask that question is we do so much research and development outside of a land falling hurricanes. So we do a lot of development of new products forecasting techniques. We actually do. We actually still do modeling like hardcore modeling. Upgrades to our modeling system verification. Of. The? Modeling. System. We do at our people don't know this, but we actually all of the risk mapping for the you ass to. For the purposes of defining evacuation zones in evacuation protocols So we do that from Texas domain. Now we're expanding into other areas such as Ghana's or Hawaii for Rico Virgin Islands, Guam Samoa American Samoa. So you ninety five percent of our work is is not the forecast and warning component. It's this off season research development and Risk Matt. There are some things in life worth waiting for your local newscast isn't always one of them. There's a new way to stay connected to your community on your schedule with local. Now, a streaming service that delivers your local news sports, traffic, weather entertainment, and so much more. You can instantly get the local information that matters most to you. And the best part is it's available whenever and wherever you want it. Eating breakfast in your house local now will be there dropping the kids off at school local now will be there heading the work local now will be there to. No matter where you are local now will be there for you to connect to your community so that you'll always be in the know even on the gold local now has partnered with leading content providers to give you the best information from the most trusted sources including severe alerts and live coverage from the weather channel starts dreaming your local news weather traffic sports in more with local. Now, available on s enjoy Amazon Fire TV Roku. TV and, other. Streaming. Devices. And we are back on the weather Geeks podcast I'm Dr Marshall Shepherd from the University of Georgia and I'm talking with Jamie Rhone from the National Hurricane Center Storm. Surge unit, he is a key component of the innate see activities. In the previous segment. You heard about West the national, Hurricane Center, resume I. Think There's things that they do that. You may not be aware of the reason I really asked. Jamie is. A lot of information out there on harding's motto. This and that's Definitely promote that but there's a hurricane or trump were alarmed first by v Lions who is your website because I wanNA know? International Hurricane. So Gordon to establish the new guys are the front. Line. The you folks. I hate to use those gender. Specific terms are the Front Ryan for the Best Abrasion on hurricanes. A. I WANNA Kinda get back to storm surge. We're talking Jamie random a little bit more about Jamie he received America metal winning nineteen is the families the pay the Oscars warm and service so congratulations for that awesome and well deserved honor he's also received the National Weather Service is it Klein awarded sixteen the Department of Commerce gold medal is highest award. I mean, if you're paying attention these awards signified or someone and very high level of our government values were Iran your colleagues team. Jamie I take full credit. I know it's a team effort and I know the kind of person Jamie is as well. Jamie the leader of the group in. So it's certainly He's recognized. I want to kind of wind back to storm surge so. Storm Surges certainly very pending upon. The storm of the been the orientation of the storm talked to very one on one level on why the word charitably most. impactful or hazardous to the right of the storms. which typically the right signed is if all things being equal sort of normal storm, the right side of the storm. Has Strongest wins. It's also. In most situations where the winds are blowing most onshore directly at the land always the. Obviously that's from an ideological perspective. But. It gets tricky because a storm surges like real estate it's location location location in every location has different vulnerabilities. So you could have one place that's closer to the eye and has stronger winds get left storm surge than another place a hundred miles up the coast which has less win because at second place is something about the coastline that makes it more vulnerable presence of a river or obey or your have you. That's what makes the communication of of Sergio. Tricky. You everybody has these preconceived notions of what it's GonNa be what it's GonNa look like this formed by historical storms or their experiences with historical storms. It turns out that when it comes to storm surge history is a terrible terrible guide in Austin people who make poor decisions. They do it because they're basing it off some historical perception or a some sort of historical experience from some past or. Yeah. I, agree I. think that it's something that we struggle with in general were messaging. Hurricane or tropical storm hazards, people have the sort of. Personal experience or memories of their experiences desire always say. Experiences the often. Prepare for anomaly situation. So you've lived through certain hurricanes a certain storm surge situations. Have you lived Michael situation it's in our mom. But what about my coastline and the shelf five as these storms approach Are they first order second order factors in terms of storage in other words. Given a hurricane Michael Level of With storm surge be more or less dramatic depending on the coastline or show a topography. symmetry or the the continental shelf or how quickly the water gets deep as you move off shore the depths of the ocean. Is often one of the most important components of a forecast in Michael was. I always say that Michael was a white knuckle a storm for us because it was in this really really tricky spot where the symmetry on to the West into the east, especially to the east of the storm was substantially different than it was a new Mexico beach where it made landfall so that storm would have moved in either direction. Left or right, but especially to the right, just a A. Twenty miles or so it would have been a totally different eight totally different events There would have been more storm surge from a depth perspective but less wave less wave action. We're in Mexico in Mexico beach it didn't produce I know this is gonNA sound insensitive but it didn't produce from a depth perceptive perspective. That deep of water, but it produced incredibly violent wave action. If you've seen some of the video footage, certainly, you've seen the damage of footage all holds white man on to the to the slam. That's way. That's the presence waves versus. Of Water, in from forecast perspective in a communication perspective, it was just really challenging to try to like. It almost like Michael was a tale of two storms if it went to the right over towards. Appalachia Bay. Would've been deeper storm surge which penetrated further inland but less waves. Whereas if it stayed closer to Mexico beach, it would have not gone ask far not doubts but more ways that was really hard to communicate. There just in your career is there a storm surge of from a particular storm that just really sort of is the one? The new recall? When someone who is the worst storm searching experienced or seen from a professional perspective? On if it worse perspective. Katrina, a Sir I can remember being on the ground afterwards, looking at the damage is much schilling. You've ever seen it. It literally looked like a large scale bulldozer just scraped everything and moved inland. Some point stopped in less does mound of debris in everything behind that or the ocean side of that was just scrape down to the ground most remarkable chilling footage of overseen an in for I. Mean I do I do go out and survey after every storm and you see the most unusual things I mean, you just see things that boggle the mind like. Oh I saw a t. a still sitting in the in saucer like the little tea saucer on on the ground and I was trying to envision how. That violent force in yet these two things were still. Together they weren't separated. I mean you see things in trees that you how in the world that that get intrigued I'm but to answer your question, it was sandy for for me personally was the storm. Really had a lasting impact and I'm not sure I'll other Rid, myself of the impact that storm has haunted me for a long time personally. Because, we were able to predict the surge the prediction. Difficult it was this was this predate sanded predated all these events, new products, warnings that we have now in it felt like if you've ever had the dream where you're screaming for help or screaming for someone to hear you in nobody can hear you that Sandy thought like personally on a personal and I never never forget that storm and it. Probably haunted me for a solid year before I really. Picked up in moved on in. Once I did though I I came out of it with this newfound. Passion or desire to lure that we never lacked the ability to communicate that type of event ever again, I think the exact quote I made to someone internally was. Never, again on you saw. Wow, that that pretty chilling statement you just made given the storms that I know you've. From, a professional standpoint in your career. That sandy is certainly fanned. He had an impact I think one of those game changing storms in our community. In many ways, I mean forced to repaint how we worn on storms that are transitioning from a tropical to an extra job will system it forces the about jurisdictional issues forced us about our modeling capacity here in the US since the European model sniffed it out much earlier than than our models did did so. Surprised to hear you say that. It was. So, often meteorologist get enamored with the the Y you. His Sandy. Transitioning what are the forces at play young? What's the physics bind? End Sometimes, we forget to communicate the. On and it's it's hard. It's hard. Is Scientists to curtail natural interests like we started off this show with how did you get interested in whether that was a natural curiosity. It's hard to curtail that during a disaster but what separates the the really good people in? Disaster. Communication, and in forecasting, these big high impact events are those who can at least temporarily quiet. That's Beira curiosity in focus on the wet and not the why when you focus on the wet you become a communicator. In, you say whatever you need to say to protect people during that particular events and in Europe you forget about the the science in the whole forensics in the the why can come afterwards weeks months and? Years after storm that we can dig into all of these these scientific principles in debate them if necessary as community. I'm but one of the things I'm hoping the community meteorological community and you can already see it happening. Will do is suspend that debate during a natural disaster in sort of come together as a community to focus on the the impacts and while able should. And we are back on the weather podcasts and Brockton Marshall Shepherd in in this discussion with Jamie Ronin. I wanted to say before we went to the break I completely I was almost standing up giving a standing ovation over here when you talked about that, what you made because we are all curious about whether when hurricanes. Storms coming I offense leaders say don't cheer for the storm these things early they kill people and so I mean, we got into our fields because of that natural curiosity but. Realized that at the end of the day on their lives, online properties stake in. So it it it is important for distinguishing ability to kind of transition out of that oral. Fascinated by before gain to oh, wow. This thing might kill people and I really appreciate your perspective on that I. WanNa pivot down this last segment of comcast. The network changed the implemented two new core surged products. Can you tell us a little bit about that? Actually doing a third. We're adding third when this year but. Your first question. So there's there. We have now in explicit warning and when I say warning warning in the formal sense of the word from a National Weather Service perspective meaning, you'll think that scrolls across the bottom of your your TV when your phone goes off so I'm thinking like analogous to flash flood warnings tornado warning. Historically, we only had wind based warnings in hurricanes but as I as we talked earlier since water is the predominant killer, a hurricane. A water based warning for hurricanes and so. For the first time ever the US has in explicit storm surge. Warning and. I am happy to report that while we weren't the first country in the world to go in this direction, our system is the most sophisticated in advance with respect to targeting and really refining. The warring area so that you evacuations if necessary can can be a very efficient in very strategic. But the other thing we added was on what we in the Business Kala inundation map or bit is basically just a high resolution depiction of the water can go. So it shows you not only how far inland the water could go but how deep the water could be on So it helps. It helps on its used heavily on the weather channel. It helps to convey this this notion. The storm surges not just a coastal phenomenon. A lot of people believe that it's just the first row houses on the on the barrier, island. But If you look. Past. Past hurricanes water can penetrate. Sometimes a hundred or more miles inland. The rivers look at Florence. I mean, the worst storm surge flooding in Florence was number. It takes a I haven't made the drive in a long time. It takes about our fifteen minutes to drive from New Bern to the coast to the ocean model. Got Looney up until the inland. Yeah. Just came right up the river. It came right up the river in the you know you've got a large volume of salt water being shoved into an increasingly narrow waterway in the new stripper in it just filled it up still out of its banks and I had the opportunity in. This is another thing on forget my career, I had the opportunity to interview the emergency manager. In charge of of the area in he told me point blind that anyone who didn't have storm surge was coming here was living under a rock. To, to be able to convey that being compare that to what we just talked about with sandy where I told you, we were struggling just to communicate in yet. Here we have a case. We're the worst storm surge flooding in Florence was one hundred miles inland. Yet we were able to convey so crystal clear. So so effectively that the emergency manager said anyone who didn't know storm surge was coming here was living under a rock. So those, that's the power of those two new products. Agree, and we we thank you all there on the ground working on those products in also for the foresight of Loa management to kind of move in this direction. Are you familiar with the new immersive reality? Technology I I. Don't know that I got that exactly right on our roster whether uber executive producer might testify didn't get it right but this this new technology they're using where they're showing immersive graphics almost three dimensional is if you. Are Do you feel that that's how how how much of a game changer is that for communicating things like storm surge hazard to the Public Huge in it speaks to exactly what we intend to do. You WanNa for started ten years ago we talked to media and said, why aren't you talking about storm surge in the fact that what they said no uncertain terms is is you haven't empowered us with data that is visually compelling in attractive enough to show on on air and solve that immersive technology. especially. That which is done by the weather channel is is speaks to the the partnership. We're sort of supplying the data and then they're using innovation in technology to turn that into this presentation, which speaks to the audience in a far better and more compelling way than anything I could say. It was so encouraging to see that partnership that the Public Private Partnership. the two sectors really working together in. Absolutely if you talked to any social scientists about indicating risk mitigating wetter threats, they will tell you a no uncertain terms that you have to make it personal. You have to let the person envision themselves in the phenomenon, which is exactly what that type of depiction his has done in a I have enough good things to say about it. You have to be part of the next phase of innovation within the weather community is not. I've often said this not necessarily going to be with the next Lists Bang model satellite or radar. It's going to be the interface social sciences communication psychology. The visual presentations know Noah is very much involved in things like that was facets in the hazards. -CATION program and others. If. You look at weather prediction. We've call a long way. I mean you're weather hurricane or otherwise I mean the the ability to predict. Hurricanes three or four days out is just so good in. Action the reason I picked three or four days that's usually when people are making decisions to to move were evacuate if needed. Our predictions are just so good become so far I've been at Hurting Center for twenty years and when I look at the verification scores of the last three years. It makes I mean. When when you're shocked by something that you were a part of that that's really compelling because it I mean I just can't believe how good the hurricane forecast gotten. So it really has become more of a communication in getting people to trust trust the forecast and take action. Yeah agree I would use the hurricane example that you just spoke about to count as debunking those CEO weather forecast the wrong and there have been no improvements I. think there's a clear discernable improvement in hurricane track were cast intensities lag some but the track were cast is certainly they are. Now before we get out of here Jamie since you're the national hurricane can let you leave getting your take on what what your expectations are for the twenty twenty Atlanta Hurricanes Noah recently issued its projections. Are Our you all geared for that. A lot of people hear me say. I don't change my preparedness. No matter what you know it doesn't matter what anybody forecasts fron seasonal perspective high low average above average whatever I'm I approach every season on the same because. Experience has taught me One sucker punched hurricane in wrong spot on your is is a big season in for that community. That's a busy. Busy year no matter what else happens around them. and. So for and I'm speaking personally to live in hurricane alley down here in south Florida the things I do to prepare my house I I do it every year I was working on. On on my generator making sure it's tuned up and ready to go over the weekend. But I do that every year every year I'll do that it checks supplies in what have you so it's My expectations for the year is. I can't say that any of US know what will or won't come. In the future but I know, the hurricane center will be there. will be a reliable source whether it's to her aimed or twenty hurricanes will push out the forecast with the same accuracy that you've come to. Yet and we we thank you for that and unfortunately that's where we have to end it but before we do. It is time for our Geek of the week. The Geek of the week is really a person. We like to highlight Jamie out know if you're familiar with it, but we try to highlight someone that has been critical or interested in our field of urology. I'm actually searching around for my notes here because I've been taking some notes on your discussion. So so important this. Week is Meghan League. Meghan. Meteorology Manager for the American Electric. Power. Los We're casting eleven system that definitely harnesses of electricity. mass-scale systems or those of us in the weather will that MCS for short? Meghan loves a good ring of fire patter across the central part of the country which brings those MCS is to lie if you or someone you know is a deserving candidate for our next gave the week. Check out our played paid is now there is one thing to get to Jamie before we get out of here. We have a little bit of. A WE TALK ABOUT A. Book Richard Storm Surge Hurricane Sandy are changing climate extreme weather the past. Can you talk about an you? You mentioned the sort of impact that sandy had on you. Can you talk a little bit more about your book in ends or why? So? I'm sorry I, you know what I'm actually D-? Actually. Because I am fumbling around with my notes I am actually confusing that with our previous guests. I wish I wrote it. Well maybe that's certainly An impetus for you to write a book one day we were talking with Adams. And he was talking about his book earlier and so when you mentioned Sandy I was conflicting my notes here. It's actually a good in I'll I'll. I'll give you something interesting from that. So much of the hurricane narrative is take years nyc narrative the true story of a hurricane. It takes years for that information to surface in come out because it's so complicated in nuance. S Oh many people try to define the narrative of the narrative on a hurricane hours days after it. has occurred. And having gone through sandy in dozens of other big hurricanes I wanNA really encourage people to take brass on often the most important people in a hurricane whether it's the forecasters are disaster management, emergency, management, civil defense, first responders. Those are the really interesting stories in there too busy to tell their stories on in the the hours days or too tired hours days after hurricane. So. You of. This speaking lot of the folks on on the twitter it you don't. Ask those first few hours or days of narrative defying the storm. Sandy in the book by Adam, approve this. So much of the really really interesting in significant parts of a hurricane takes a long time. To work its way to the surface while I think my little notes gap there because it set up a perfect synergy for stress that collection but Jamie thank you so much for joining us on the weather weeks podcasts. Such a pleasure to be with you in. Thank you for asking such an interesting questions you know. Some of those are coming off the top of my head I definitely want to give. Major props to our our weather production or whether gigs production team to primarily Sarah Dealing Hammond heathers on these days I always loved shout them out of people don't realize how much goes into this week's podcast other than me just heart into the gas of super shadow to our podcast producers of the technical staff, Flying Rodney, Higgins, working with us today in various others of support this podcast effort I. Am Dr Marshall Shepherd University of Georgia, and this has been weather geeks. We'll see you next time.

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