17 Burst results for "James Walcot"

"james walcott" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

03:25 min | 2 weeks ago

"james walcott" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Now the paper review on Bluebird daybreak Europe. The news you need to know from today's papers. Let's get to today's papers then James Walcott joins us with a briefing James walk us through some of the reactions yesterday's budget. I mean, as David's point out, it's a very bleak outlook and a lot of the papers agree with him to eat some of the headlines because they are stark Anna. You've never had it so bad. Meters on tax, they're from bad to worse, is what The Guardian says about that massive drop in living standards. And that's picked up by the eye as well, who call it the UK's lost decades, FT lead on years of pain, the times have years of taxpayer head with this amazing photo of Jeremy hunter as school yesterday because obviously he said to be pro education pro growth, but some of the school kids faces might say they disagree for their pro education or not. It's all quite grim. The daily mail have a picture of Jeremy hunt soaked by The Rain saying soak the strivers, this idea of the rich being overtaxed in their view and that they have Sarah vine their columnist says there was me thinking we've voted in the conservatives, so it's all quite negative. What about the FT's take on this? So they're quite mixed even in that they, like I said, years of pain is what they say, but they have some of the most scathing messages because they say that sort of things like the apprenticeship levy weren't mentioned. The idea of cutting the generosity of R&D is an odd way to boost this sort of idea generation. So they kind of say that this budget is better than the classic quantum budget improves stability improves credibility, but in terms of taking serious decisions about the future of the UK economy, they argue that it doesn't make difficult decisions, which is something that is echoed in the telegraph by David Frost. He writes that the concerned mind likes talking tough while avoiding hard choices. There's a lot of talk about the back loading of those difficult decisions to after when an election would be. How is this budget get seen as playing into the next election then just briefly, according to the times? I mean, that is the big question. And John Kurt is the famous pollster has said Rachel Reeves has set the tone. The shadow Chancellor, when she said, in response to Jeremy hunt, when the public asked themselves how they feel after what you've said, are they better off after 12 years of conservative government. And John has, if that is the question, the next election is fought on and there's every indication it will be, the conservatives are in for a drubbing. Okay, James wilcock, thank you very much for that review of the paper is coming up next we'll be hearing from the shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves speaking to Bloomberg for her reaction to the autumn statement as we look ahead of a very grim economic outlook for the UK. Stay with us for that, this is Bloomberg. The Alzheimer's association and the ad council present the story of Tom and Levi. Tom is the smartest man I know. He's been a professor at two major universities been a teacher for over 40 years. One day, he told me that he was having problems in his classes. I think one of the students had asked the question and he didn't remember the answer. I also noticed that he was letting his class out earlier than they were supposed to let out. And he was telling them that he was doing it as a favor to them. But I think in reality he just wanted to give out of there. I was really starting to worry 'cause I saw something was wrong. Levi and I talked about how it would change our lives. But he was there beside me, and my love

James Walcott Jeremy hunter Jeremy hunt Sarah vine Rachel Reeves UK John Kurt The daily mail The Guardian Anna David Frost Europe James James wilcock David Alzheimer's association Bloomberg the times ad council Tom
"james walcott" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

07:15 min | 2 weeks ago

"james walcott" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"This Bloomberg radio business flash, so it could be a real day of reckoning for UK stocks, guilt and Sterling given that the Chancellor will speak and deliver his autumn statement at 1130 a.m., London time, so watch the home builders banks, utility firms, windfall taxes are on the agenda and also of course a hit to consumers from higher taxation, that could be difficult for retailers home builders at the leisure sector the FTSE two 50 down 19% so far this year also in terms of guilt. That will be key, the size of UK government guilt issuance from the debt management office even though guilt, the premium over bundt is actually come down since the summer that will be closely watched. Currently, German burnt yields are trading below 2% at one 98 U.S. yields at three spots 7%. Now that is interesting because the ten year yield is now below the fed's policy rate floor of three 75, so growing concern around yield curve inversion is that deepens. There was also a bond route in China earlier. This earlier this morning and the PBOC had to intervene there. There's been something of a sell off in Asian hours of your country world index drops tenth of 1% the MSCI Asia Pacific index is down half of 1% stock futures though are in the green for both the U.S. and for Europe and just lastly in the FX space at the Euro seeing quite a recovery something like 5% this month from a two decade low we trade at one spot zero three 8 7. Sterling on cable is at one 1921 and the blue big dollars one index of a tenth of 1%. That's your Bloomberg radio business slash now here's James Walcott with our top stories. UK Chancellor Jeremy hunt will today announce tax rises and spending cuts aimed at plugging a 55 billion pound hole in the country's finances. The economic squeeze comes just 24 hours after data showed UK inflation topping 11%. In remarks released by the treasury ahead of today's budget, hunt is expected to say he will quote face into the storm and fixing problems depends on taking difficult decisions now. In the U.S., Federal Reserve officials are signaling that they will be voting for 50 basis point rate rises next month, while also stressing the need to keep hiking into 2023. Speaking at an event in Phoenix, fed governor Christopher Waller said he is open to a sequence of half point hikes, while his comments come after last week's CPI data came in cooler than expected, with prices rising 7.7% year on year in October. And finally, bank customers are quids in on the pound. The share of people using the pound for global payments has jumped 2% since June to 8 7.85% of global payments. That's the highest it's been since Brexit. The pound is the world's third most popular payments currency behind the U.S. dollar and the Euro. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and Bloomberg quicktake powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than a 120 countries. I'm James Wilcox. This is Bloomberg. Carole like this story is faster, isn't it? Is this arbitrage? There's people using money to spend money. They might have. I mean, at the same time, we're staying in the UK. People are asking to be paid in dollars. So you gain the opposite side domestically to the global payment system. Yeah, well, I mean, the pounds a week in about like 12% this year against the U.S. dollar. So yeah, it's becoming in the increasingly volatile currency. But yes, it's still lags way behind the dollar and the Euro in terms of the popularity when it comes to swift payments. But yeah, it's an interesting story. Thanks so much for that. That's James Wilcox with our top stories. Okay, so let's talk about the market response then. After the last UK budget, through markets into a tailspin and cost of prime minister, of course, her job investors are going to be closely watching what chance to Jeremy hunt has to say. There will be a lot of potentially market moving news to sift through, including details of hunt spending cuts, fresh economic forecasts and the UK's bond sale plans to now, too, dig in to all of this is Patrick Armstrong who is chief investment officer at. Well, Patrick, thank you so much. You've hot footed it over from the TV studio. Good morning. So I did a little introduction about Jeremy hunter the Chancellor of course. So hunt wants debt to be falling as a share of GDP in terms of the economy 2027 to 2028. That is a goal that means trying to find 55 billion pounds of savings or tax increases is that overly ambitious. It depends on the period and the economic outlook you forecast so you can always be a little bit rosy on forecasting growth later and that'll finance everything. And that's the politicians trick they have in their back pocket. And inflation causes many problems, but it's also the grease. They get the wheels moving as well, that taxes are based on nominal growth, not real growth. So in an economy that's producing no real growth, you're still getting nominal growth at double digits, which is a pretty big tailwind for tax revenues. Patrick, you know, talking about politicians using growth, keeping that in their back pocket. Let's look at some research by Sanjay rajat Deutsche Bank, who says, he expects the OBR to say that the UK's growth capacity is smaller than thought. Is he right? I don't know what's thoughts. That's the open question, I suppose. But yeah, the potential growth of the United Kingdom if you're getting to 2% in the long term, I think that's probably getting on the ambitious side of things now in terms of real terms. So if you put probably a stickier 4% inflation on top of that, you might get 6% nominal growth. I think it would be an ambitious target. And that's with inflation significantly ahead of a BOE targets. Okay. So just in terms of the Bank of England response, you know, we are told now that it's a government and Bank of England fiscal and monetary policy working hand in hand, are you a buyer of that view? I think the Bank of England can probably credibly slow their hikes to 50 basis points now in December where it was looking like it would be much more in the past, but I think the Bank of England ECB and fed are all doing 50 basis points in February. It's an acknowledgment that inflation is still a massive problem, but also recognizing that economic growth is a pretty big problem and probably already in a recession in the United Kingdom and Europe and the U.S. is on the cusp of flirting with one anyway. Well, let's pick up on that comment about the fed. I mean, Christopher Waller of the fed says he's now ready for 50 basis point hikes. Do you see this as the closest to a fed pivot for now? I don't call it a pivot, but I think if it's not a defined word that people think of it differently and I think when the feds really having to stop hiking, maybe that's more of a pivot or when they do get into cuts and my view is they do 50 in December and I think they'll probably get two small ones in and the first quarter of next year and then economic growth will just have to the public have to slow based on that. So you have seen the built up impact of the fed cuts M two growth in the United States and the monetary aggregate. It's only going to 2.6% year on year. So that's not incredibly inflationary backdrop. So slowing money supply growth, higher interest rates, that is going to kill some of the demands. And I think

UK James Wilcox U.S. Bloomberg James Walcott Chancellor Jeremy hunt fed governor Christopher Waller PBOC Patrick Armstrong
"james walcott" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

04:59 min | 2 weeks ago

"james walcott" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"And spending cuts aimed at plugging a 55 billion pound hole in the country's finances. The economic squeeze comes just after 24 hours, so I just 24 hours after data showed UK inflation topping 11%. In remarks released by the treasury ahead of today's budget, hunt is expected to say he will face into the storm and fixing problems depends on taking difficult decisions now. Over in the U.S., Federal Reserve officials are signaling they will be voting for 50 basis points rate rise next month, whilst also stressing the need to keep hiking into 2023. Speaking at an event in Phoenix, fed governor Christopher Waller said he is expected to sequence at least open to a sequence of half point hikes. Waller's comments come after last week's CPI data came in cool and expected, with prices rising 7.7 year on year in October. And bank customers are quids in on the pound, the share of people using the pound for global payments has jumped 2% since June, that's the highest been since Brexit, the pound is the world's third most popular payments currency behind the U.S. dollar and the Euro. Global news 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 Jersey hours in more than a 120 countries. I'm James Walcott, this is Bloomberg. Stephen, this Panzer is really interesting because although the powers we can almost 12% against the dollar this year, this sudden spike happening around the time of the mini budget, is it arbitrage? Is that people using up any spare pounds? They might have. Is it people buying loads of pounds? Because they want to actually buy things because they're so cheap. Compared to the dollar, perhaps, but the percentages are really interesting here. So the proportion of global payment season Sterling at this surge point is just under 8%. The dollar is 42% of global transactions, the Euros 34%. The next after the panda is the yen, which comes in just under 3%. So it's still, you know, it's an interesting to see where the balance of currencies plays out. You miss that one of the most important ones. Whether or not it's going to overtake the dollar. They're far from that 2.1% in terms of globals, but these are of course swift transactions. So it's important to say that's the kind of U.S. led payment system. Other payment services are available at all. That's the thing. Okay, all right, thank you very much, James for that look at our top stories. Let's get back to our markets conversation. Just a few hours ago now until we find out the details of Chancellor Jeremy hunt plans for the UK economy. He faces a delicate balancing act of convincing markets of the credibility of the UK's fiscal path while trying not to worsen the looming recession. We've got Alta Qassam EMA's head of investment strategy and research at state street global advisers with us. Good morning to you. Good morning to have you in studio. What does Jeremy hunt need to do to convince markets today? Yeah, I mean, like you say, choose your favorite metaphor, he has to walk a tightrope or thread a needle, but he's got to somehow please the market and not upset the kind of Conservative Party kind of faithful too much. So what we think he's going to do is definitely go ahead with a kind of austerity type budget, but push a lot of the tax hikes and do more tax hikes than spending cuts, push them into 2024. So look, come out and say, look, I'm serious about this. But I'm going to have to wait a bit because the economy is too fragile to take it right now. Yeah, I think the interesting point in that is that it is a change from the 2010 budget and the austerity that came in under George Osmond after the global financial crisis, which was 80 20 spending cuts to tax increases. So you've got something uncomfortable for conservatives more tax rises, but is it really credible? Will the markets accept it as credible if you push out those tax rises to sort of towards the end of the 5 year period? Yeah, I think one thing that that might kind of make markets a bit more comfortable is a to see a number which is kind of in line with what markets have been expecting about 2% of GDP secondly to maybe start with a windfall tax on energy or increasing that, which is an easy way and certainly will please the voters as well. So I think there are ways that he can, in effect, make himself look serious, but you're right. The previous administration, whoever you want to blame, has definitely destroyed a lot of credibility. And so the markets are going to be very, very scrutinizing how this budget looks and making sure that it's going to be true. And I think the fact that they are actually having the OBR look at it will add to the credibility or at least it won't destroy the credibility like the previous administration did. What does this mean for guilt markets? We're looking at a glut of guilt coming on to the markets, you know, we'll be getting an update from the debt management office about how much exactly the UK government will need to borrow, where do you see the outlook then for guilt? I mean, the guilt market is very fragile and that everyone is still reeling

governor Christopher Waller James Walcott Bloomberg U.S. UK Chancellor Jeremy hunt Waller Federal Reserve treasury Phoenix George Osmond
"james walcott" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

02:38 min | Last month

"james walcott" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Get better public services. So when you have sort of doyens in his own party, calling for tax rises and warning of Edgar Winter heads, there are some very difficult decisions that his government needs to decide over the next two, three weeks. And the Home Secretary swell. I think this is going to be one of those questions of how far the conservatives can maintain discipline within their own party, where wait as everyone knows, we're on the third prime minister in the same year. And for suela, what is going to be a test for the new prime minister is how far can he keep internal discipline? We have not just labor, but Conservative Party parliamentarians like Jake berry and Carlo nokes calling for an inquiry. On the other hand, so the Brahman is the former chairman of the ERGs of the Brexit research group. So the Sue bravman test is going to be both a test of the prime ministers of decision making, but also a test of how far he can hold this increasingly fractious political coalition together in the face of what I think are going to be the things that come back to haunt him more, which will be the NHS economic bills. So in some ways, the Brahman story is the story of how far he can maintain his parliamentary coalition in the face of what are going to be testing times ahead for any government. And business confidence is not doing particularly well either. No, because I mean, when you see the very uncertain environment around the macro picture on the whole, there are still a lot of questions around quite well that Richardson will build in these 35 million pounds of public savings they have to find to sort of fill the hole in the public finances. So if you're looking to invest right now, we look at sort of say rail strikes we have the 5th 7th of 9th November, royal mail have called off some of their strikes where the union CW union, but I still set the strike on the 12th. You have issues around teachers, potentially both in strike NHS nurses, especially bound to the strike. As before you get to the issues around how far will energy bills be guarantees the government, their company is set to go off in April, so you pick the area will be interest rates as well. There are a lot of key uncertainties facing the UK macroeconomic picture and the political answers are basically what the government has to sit down and figure out right now in the next three weeks. And one thing that does set the UK apart in a negative way I'm afraid from the rest of the Europe is that whereas other European leaders have been figuring out the question, the answer to these questions for months, the UK is on its third administration in as many as three months. And trying to figure out the direction for civil servants to ministers is a difficult ask. James, thank you so much for the summary when it comes to UK politics Bloomberg's James Walcott coming up next that will be hearing from

Jake berry Carlo nokes ERGs of the Brexit research gr Edgar Winter Conservative Party NHS Richardson UK Europe James Walcott James Bloomberg
"james walcott" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

05:25 min | Last month

"james walcott" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Here good morning. Good morning, Caroline. The treasury says the UK's Chancellor has cut short his U.S. trip and is heading back to London to work on the government's fiscal plan. Quasi quartz early exit from the IMF's annual gathering comes amid reports the UK government is preparing to abandon its plans for massive unfunded tax cuts. This as the Bank of England's emergency intervention in the bond market is set to come to an end later today. In the U.S., core inflation jumped to a 40 year high of 6.6% in September, the year on year figure outpaced forecasts with investors now betting that the fed will be forced into two more 75 basis point rate hikes this year. Overall consumer price inflation was 8.2% in September, staying above 8% for a 7th straight month. Food costs were more up more than 11% from a year earlier offsetting a drop in gasoline prices. And the U.S. investigation into the use of outside messaging services like WhatsApp at major banks is now sweeping in record keepers at big investment firms. Bloomberg has learned the SEC has asked money managers for details of who oversees retention of electronic communications at their firms. The U.S. regulator has already issued about $2 billion in fines for improper conduct compliance and record keeping. Global news, 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg quick take a powered by more than 2700 countries and analysts in more than a 120 countries, I'm James Walcott, this is Bloomberg, Charlie, have you WhatsApp has ever been looked at by an external source? Not at this time. Not that we know of. Yes, I deny all wrongdoing. Yes, exactly. So look, let's focus on the U.S. still. Surprise CPI prints yesterday showed inflation higher than expected yields shot up higher. But then the U.S. stocks maybe counterintuitively stormed back from losses that were initially sparked by that reading Joining us now to make sense of all this is Dan's worn CEO and CIO of arena investors $3.6 billion global investment firm that focuses on special situations, assets, and credit investments in corporates, real estate structured finance and corporate securities. Dan, thank you for being here. So we really want to hone in on this inflation shock in some sense. I mean, it looks like inflation is entrenched. Do you see two 75 basis point hikes coming at the next two fed meetings? Well, thanks for having me. To be brief, yes, I do. The question is not really that as much as when do we get to real interest rates? Positive real interest rates. We're simply reaping what we sowed here with kind of irresponsible monetary policy since the QE two of 2012. And so that's created in an unbelievably large asset bubble. There's been tremendous amounts of mispriced risk out in the marketplace, and that's been exacerbated since 2020 by really, really difficult fiscal policy that puts the fed into a corner whereby they finally have to act. Okay, but it's the speed of change that has been so difficult. And we've seen that sort of here in the UK particularly, but I think that's a global issue too. The speed of change is very difficult. I would argue to you that it's too slow. And it was too late. Part of the issue with inflation is that inflation is based on not only what we see in field today, but also our expectations. And to the extent that you have this kind of great, great lag in action. You start to train the market to assume kind of all will be well. And so had, for instance, chairman Powell moved and said, okay, here's an intra meeting 200 basis point move. I am serious. We're going to get rid of inflation. We're going to be super preemptive. I'm going to do it like Volcker. Perhaps you wouldn't need to kind of drag out 50 and 75 and 75 and 75%. You don't think that that would have caused panic in the market. Ultimately, there's no credibility. They've lost complete credibility. And so at some point, the market didn't react well to what Volcker did either. But then it said, okay, now we understand you're serious. Finally. I mean, one of the side effects of being serious, of course, is that potential of a recession, right? Is there growing acceptance of a U.S. recession being necessary now? There's no way around it. There's no way around it. Again, it's a bed that was made. You can't possibly have 12 years of this kind of monetary policy combined with an absolute torching of the USD through grossly responsible fiscal policy and not create tremendous inflation and then in turn not create recession unless you want inflation to continue to rise and rise at ever faster rate. How do you deal with the strong dollar in your investment portfolio? Good question. From our perspective, we're not macro investors. We actually want to basically mitigate that and everything that we do. So we really we take in capital as dollars and we give it back out as dollars. So we hedge everything back to the USD. Could you talk us through what happened yesterday with stocks? I think a lot of observers were wondering, we saw that sort of surprise inflation print. We saw drops and then we saw stock storm back. Why did that happen? Well, things like that have happened for centuries when you see when you're in the midst of a decline, you see these rallies, people call the bear market rallies or dead cat bounces. A lot of it is driven by options activity. There's a lot of short term

U.S. Bloomberg WhatsApp James Walcott UK Bank of England IMF Dan Caroline treasury chairman Powell Volcker fed SEC
"james walcott" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

03:03 min | Last month

"james walcott" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"A U turn James. Dear dear, that's what King Charles had to say when he met Liz truss does her government still have the confidence of its own MPs. Good morning Caroline. And as you very sort of politely notice throwback is code for U turn really isn't it. Now, what is astonishing is how much that credibility has drained away from this trust in the 5 weeks she has been in office. She was at PMQs yesterday. He played a clip of just now. And what was interesting is she took no responsibility for where the markets were. Instead, she pulled it back to the energy plans bailout. In the evening, she was in the 1922 committee. That's the back benches where they gather as a Conservative Party and hold their prime minister to account. And a lot of them reported they wanted to hear a bit more responsibility. And we aren't allowed in that kit committee as journalist, but the judge outside reported that they said it was worse than the dog days of Theresa May is what the MP said in there. They described as funeral, despairing, that may have trust had no authority. And if anything, the situation has worsened. And it all feeds into something Caroline, that we talk a lot about the bond markets on the show today, and that the government is looking for financial capital. But really, it's also political capital in short of right now. Yeah, absolutely. I thought trust blamed basically what's happening in the UK bond markets on the U.S. on global interest rates going up and she went back and back to the idea that she's helping the British consumer and households here with the energy Bill, but didn't talk about really the rest of the budget. So where's all the political capital gone? And more importantly, what a trust in quantum going to do now. I mean, where it's gone, it's interesting because in some ways, it was never there in the first place. We go back way back to the leadership election, Richard sunac had a 137 votes from MPs. This trusted a 113, so even back then, let's trust was the second favorite. And in some ways, they all rode in behind her when initially she won office, but these kind of radical plan has wasted a lot of that credibility she had coming into her honeymoon. And we can see it now with business secretary drapery smog on one side blaming the Bank of England and saying the OBR's record of forecasting hasn't been enormously good yesterday for he's pushing for more radical reforms and they'll start on the other who as we just said is calling for tax cuts. In terms of what they can do, they're in a box because they've said that they will not reverse tax cuts, let's just said that, but she also said she won't cut back public spending. There are a lot of levers still there to push. There were things being she could raise the entire age, she could raise basic income rate of tax. She might look at cutting back R&D spending even a triple lock, the famous Tory kind of pledged to keep pensions going up with inflation. But ultimately, what it seems to be swirling is what mouse stride said, there may need to be a U turn and can she then get the supplies for policies that are supposed to grow the economy through her own party in such a fractious state. Absolutely. It's just so many questions and of all, of course, you've got that big gulp, the gulf of a fortnight between the end of the Bank of England's Bon buying and then when we actually get the details supposedly film quasi crossing on the 31st of October it's a very tricky moment, James, thank you so much for being in studio and yet explaining some of those issues. It's been both James Walcott coming up next. We'll bring you some of

Liz truss Caroline King Charles Richard sunac Theresa May Conservative Party James OBR Bank of England UK U.S. government James Walcott
"james walcott" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

02:40 min | 3 months ago

"james walcott" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Some of the stories making headlines in the UK newspapers, the new UK Chancellor has told financial services bosses he wants a big ban and 2.0 in the city that's according to the FT. I think we had a conversation about this yesterday, which is interesting. The times says ministers are drawing up plans for a public information campaign on reducing energy use and the telegraph says Liz truss has told her staff to smarten up. Great stories, let's get to James Walcott, here with the latest. Let's start with the Big Bang 2.0. Yes, good morning. We did have a conversation about this yesterday. The FT quotes mild Selleck CEO of the city UK, I believe we had on the program yesterday saying that G shouldn't take priority over good regulation. That is all about the chance for trying to hit the ground running. He invited 14 of the top executives in the city to meet with him yesterday and ask them, how can we make Brexit work for you? We need to have Big Bang two. Now the FT does note in a bit of skepticism that Big Bang two is the exact words that Rishi sunak used back in January 2021. And even back as far as the referendum, there was talk about Singapore on Thames. So the question now is quite how far will this new financial services and markets Bill actually change the way the city operates? Perhaps there was a notebook found in an office somewhere as quasi quasi was moving in. Let's turn to a story that's in the times today about ministers drawing up plans for public information campaign on energy. You probably all remember the slogans from COVID hands, face, space, and you pack up the memes. There may well be some more coming. So the times has this story that ministers want to work with energy companies on a public information campaign. Now the thinking by the trust government here is if they do announce this big energy bills freeze that we're expecting later today, that will change the price signal that consumers are getting. So why cut back if you're not actually spending more? So they're sort of trying to say what the government's going to pick up the bill, the public need to be told to turn off turn off the switches. And so it's not the first country we've already seen other countries in Europe who have put in these bright freezers already kind of have this kind of public information. The other thing actually on this energy store that Ana is the telegraph is saying, the fracking ban, it might be scrapped today. Now that would be a massive overturn of the Johnson sort of green rules. Yes. It's also a same politically. I'm sure you're aware. The a lot of the red wall that Boris Johnson has taken is all where this fracking would happen. Okay, and Jacob riis morg, of course, has talked about that in the past. I wanted to just jump in to get your thoughts on Liz trust and her rules about what you can and can't wear at number ten, what's going on? Well, I always dress up to come see you in the studio. But I don't think you wear a tie though. I don't trust things I should. She wants to make a tone change from Dominic Cummings and say her administration is going to be different. So smart enough, if you're working in number ten. Okay, they're never tongue

Liz truss James Walcott UK Rishi sunak The times Singapore Jacob riis morg Ana Boris Johnson Europe government Johnson Liz Dominic Cummings
"james walcott" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

01:58 min | 3 months ago

"james walcott" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Now the paper review on Bloomberg daybreak Europe. The news you need to know from today's papers. The papers in the UK being dominated by, of course, less trust and the weather and more on that in a moment, and the times reporting a story about how the UK is pulling the plug on hot tubs Bloomberg's games Wilcox and studio with us for more on those stories. What then are the papers saying about the new prime minister? I mean, it's not surprising it let Lee's both because of the massive entry price coming, but all the papers are we can ride out the storm, partly because most of the lobby got soaked yesterday while waiting for this trust of speech. Almost all the papers use that line, but the times have some interesting other ones as well. They have a quote from one of this trust is incoming cabinet ministers who says they doubt she will last two years, which is quite an important negative note sort of right at the start of a premiership. The telegraph of the hand point out it is the most diverse cabinet team in history. The FT note that this estimated scale of this proposed energy package is bigger than any single COVID support scheme and the mirror keep pointing out that the 12 years of Tory rule haven't ended and with the headline fix the Britain you broke. And just on a lighter note pulling the plug, hot tubs got a massive boost, didn't they? Now what's happening with them? Hot tubs. I mean, I haven't been in one for quite a few years, Caroline. I will have met. But sales of them rocketed during the pandemic with people at home, one in 20 households reported buying them in this survey that's in the times. As people look for ways to occupy themselves during lockdown. However, now we're going to see higher energy prices. We're seeing one in 5 owners said they've now not used them in a very, very long time, and a further third say they hardly ever use them. Now they're costing an average of a hundred pounds a month to run. I don't know if you two own a hot tub. No, and perhaps I wouldn't admit to it if I did, but there we are. I mean, is there any surprise though that heating that volume of water that Britons are really thinking about it twice given the energy bills. But James Walcott, thank you so much for the

Bloomberg UK cabinet Wilcox the times Europe Lee Britain Caroline James Walcott
"james walcott" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

05:13 min | 3 months ago

"james walcott" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"The dollar has been gaining that haven at serving its purpose today so the dollar is up by half a percent, the Euro is in retreat as you'd expect given that all of the news lines around gas, it dropped down to a 98 handle so it was at zero spot 9 8 to the U.S. dollar now back up at zero spot 9 9 but still down by half a percent and in the UK as we wait for further news around UK politics we're down by four tenths of 1% on the pound one 1469. That's the Bloomberg business flash. Now here's James Wilcox with more on what's going on around the world. Thank you, Anna, European gas prices have jumped by 22% after Gazprom said it will be keeping the crucial Nordstrom pipeline shut after an oil leak. The European Union accused the company of acting on false presences. EU ministers will discuss unprecedented measures to intervene in the energy market this week and such as emergency options including gas price caps and suspension of power derivatives trading. Here in the UK, we'll finally find out who Boris Johnson's accessories after a bitter Conservative Party contest between foreign secretary's trough and former Chancellor Rishi sunak, the new leader will have a forbidding in trade with the UK facing a grim winter of surging inflation are likely recession and a record squeeze on living standards. And China has extended its lockdown in districts of the western city of Chengdu and ordered more mass testing as it tries to contain a COVID outbreak. The lockdown, which started Thursday, demonstrates China's commitment to its COVID zero approach despite the huge economic loss it has triggered. Nationwide more than 1500 cases were reported on Sunday, a 140 of them in the mega city Chengdu. Global news 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg quicktake powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than a 120 countries, I'm James Walcott, this is Bloomberg, Stephen. James, thank you very much. Well, this just hours to go before we will find out who will be the next UK prime minister, whether it's Liz truss or Rishi sunak, they have been, as we've been hearing this morning, we'll be facing massive economic challenges to tackle that double digit inflation and markets that have been rattled by promises of further tax cuts. We're joined now by bob blackman is the conservative MP for harrow east also joined secretary of the 1922 committee, bob. Thank you very much for being with us on Bloomberg radio. We're talking a lot today about the help that other countries are giving to consumers. Germany just pledged €65 billion for consumers and businesses. How much do you think Britain needs to spend this week to help people squeezed by the rise in cost of living? Well, I think it's not just this week. This is a long-term issue. One of the problems here is that the supply of gas as we've been hearing from Russia has been turned off to Europe. Now, whilst we in the UK have increased production from the North Sea, I think it's very clear we're going to have to increase production even further. Whoever is elected today is prime minister is clearly going to have to decide on whether to introduce further fiscal measures to control energy prices or to go for an increase in production or a combination of these different things because as far the fact is that it's not just today's bills that we have to think about. But going forward bills next year and the year after because this is a potentially a long-term problem with Russia's invasion of Ukraine. So from that perspective, it's got to be looked at as not just a quick fix. But something that we deal with for a long time, which includes obviously increasing production and looking at alternative sources of energy. Okay, bob, good to speak to you in terms of that fiscal support package then that we might see coming for UK households, maybe also for businesses, conceptually and practically, how broad do you think that support should be? Because everybody is going to see a difference to their energy bills, but the wider that support is given, the more concerned there might be around stoking inflation further. So how broad do you think supports you? And that's always that's always the problem. I mean, the fact is that obviously the bills actually stoke inflation anyway. So from that perspective by freezing the bills or making some sort of measure in that regard, will reduce the impact of inflation. It depends on what action is taken by government overall in the longer term to control those energy prices. For example, we got to look at offshore wind is a big issue for the UK, which doesn't apply to every other country, but we can supply that. We've got to look at fracking again because the reality is that sort of energy that is potentially available to us. In the relative short term, but obviously there's a little more opposition to it. So those things we've got to look at overall because otherwise we are going to be facing this problem of potentially borrowing money in order to fix bills now, but that money will have to be repaid somehow and the energy prices may not come down in the long term. This is the end of what has been at times a bruising leadership race in the Conservative Party, how much work needs to be done to unite the party behind

Rishi sunak UK James Wilcox Bloomberg Chengdu EU James Walcott Liz truss bob blackman harrow east Gazprom Boris Johnson Nordstrom China Conservative Party Anna Russia
"james walcott" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

02:19 min | 4 months ago

"james walcott" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"From Bloomberg's European headquarters here in London, I'm Caroline Hepburn with this Bloomberg radio business flash, so the RBA height 50 basis points just earlier this morning, but they say that they're not on a preset path in terms of normalising rates, although low was family signaling that there were more to calm rates in Australia at one 85 from the Central Bank in terms of other bond markets then, of course, the disappointing PMIs had a big impact in terms of European bonds yesterday. You've got potentially European economies moving into contraction territory because all of the European manufacturing PMIs came in well under 50. U.S. yields are down three basis points at two 55. You've got concerns around recession risks, but also around the growing tensions between China and the United States over Taiwan. Speaking of which, the Thai X this morning has slumped as much as, well, just over 2% currently down around 1.6% this morning and the Taiwanese dollar also sliding in the face of these concerns. The Shanghai and Shenzhen comes both down well over 2% 2.8% lower for the Shenzhen stock futures for the U.S. and Europe both down around half of 1% this morning. This, after we saw the European equity rally really stall, yesterday, also other markets to think about Bloomberg dollar spot index is slightly weaker, the Euro trades at one spot zero two 7 four, the Japanese yen in this risk off mode gets a boost of 7 tenths of 1% gold, though, currently flat right now, $1772. That is even a big radio business flash now here's James Walcott with our top stories good morning. Good morning Caroline. U.S. House speaker Nancy Pelosi is said to be making a visit to Taiwan defying objections from Chinese authorities. The plan would be a landmark move by U.S. official with Pelosi becoming the highest ranking American politician to visit the island in 25 years. The White House urged China not to escalate tensions with the U.S. after Beijing warned of grave consequences as the visit went ahead. Staying in the U.S. news, one of the men who planned for 9 11 attacks the sama bin Laden has been killed during the U.S. counter terrorism operation in Afghanistan. I'm an Al zawahiri, took over the leadership of Al-Qaeda in 2011, shortly after American forces killed bin Laden. President Biden announced alto here he was hit by a CIA drone strike on a house in Kabul

Bloomberg Caroline Hepburn U.S. Taiwan Shenzhen Central Bank James Walcott London Australia Shanghai U.S. House Europe Nancy Pelosi Caroline sama bin Laden
"james walcott" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

02:09 min | 4 months ago

"james walcott" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Now the paper review on Bloomberg daybreak Europe. The news you need to know from today's papers. Well, in today's newspapers, The Guardian has a story on Russia's gas production hitting its lowest level since 2008, more travel chaos the daily mail with the warning about British Airways suspending sales of flights to Europe and the telegraph are covering an interview where in Australia with Elon Musk's father and joining us now is Bloomberg's James Walcott, so actually I we picked out this guardian story for a special reason. We did come on and I'm afraid I am no love island correspondent lately. But the garden have written this piece using some Bloomberg and artists out yesterday that shows the amount of gas produced by Gazprom, Russia's biggest gas producer is down 12% compared to last year. Now, we put together sort of the stats and said sort of the firm pumped 7 billion 774 million m³ a day last month. That's 40% less than June, The Guardian general is then point out that while supplies to Europe have been cut by 20%, supplies to China have hit an all time daily record. Up by almost two thirds in the past 7 months. Okay, so you can see that Bloomberg analysis being covered in The Guardian. What is the latest on what papers are saying about BA? I mean, I hope you're not booking a holiday to Europe anytime, Steven. BA have suspended the sale of short haul tickets from Heathrow for at least a week in a bit of free up seats to rebook passages whose lights are at. Now, the daily mail say they're calling this a responsible move because people have already had flights canceled and now sort of being given these free slots to rebook, behave already canceled more than 30,000 flights over the summer and are set to act even more after Heathrow last month brought in a daily departing passenger cap of a 100,000 people and the independent bringing yet more grim news. Although ticket sales was suspended till August 8th, it could get worse as pilots may well go and strike this summer as well. Okay, thank you so much for with a look at the newspapers. If you didn't quite get to the Errol Musk interview, apparently doesn't even own a Tesla, but yeah, that was fascinating. Thank you so much for the newspapers this morning. We're going to talk about BP earnings. Look ahead. Sawing oil and gas prices, what does it mean

Bloomberg Europe James Walcott The Guardian Russia Elon Musk British Airways Gazprom Australia Steven China Errol Musk BP
"james walcott" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

05:54 min | 4 months ago

"james walcott" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Have been expected showing a fall of 1.6% month on month to surveyed estimates had been for growth of .3% That's the retail sales figures from Germany, some of the other company results that were watching through this morning piercing Pearson role of the education publishing company showing a stronger than expected adjusted operation profit in the first half, 160 million pounds versus an estimate of just under a 135 million pounds sales were also stronger at 1.79 billion versus an estimate of 1.76 billion. That's the latest from Pearson, more broadly on the markets today, the MSCI Pacific index is two thirds of 1% higher the hang seng night positive up by a tenth of 1% HSBC shares one of those that's rising this morning after their results up 3.3% in trading, looking towards the European open Euro stocks 50 features are down by two tenths of 1% S&P E mini futures down by four tenths of 1% similar picture for NASDAQ futures this morning as well on the commodity markets WTI is down by 1% at 97 66 brand down by half a percent at a 103 44 Dutch natural gas features are up by two tanks of 1% as we start trading for this week of course more focus on European gas supplies heading into winter there as well and the currency markets, the Japanese Yan half a percent stronger this morning, a 132 57 as the dollar is weakening by a tank of 1% in the Bloomberg dollar spot index against the Euro, the dollar trading at one O two 23 against the pound or a 121 82 that's your Bloomberg radio business flash now who's James Wilcox with more and what's going on around the world. Morning James. 20 Stephen. Atop story today, HSBC has reported an adjusted pre-tax profit of $5.97 billion. A big beat. In fact, it's more than a $1 billion higher than the average estimate. The bank has vowed to restore its dividend to pre COVID outbreak levels as soon as possible. The UK division delivered a strong performance with adjusted profits of $2.5 billion. That's up 15% compared to the first half of last year, and all this comes as the bank continues to face pressure from its largest shareholder ping an, who want to spin off its Asia division. Speaking of banking in China, banks are facing mortgage losses of $350 billion in a worst case scenario, according to S&P Global ratings, a spiraling crisis of stored projects has dented the confidence of hundreds of thousands of home buyers, triggering a mortgage boycott across more than 90 cities and warnings a broader systemic risks. And in central banking, the Federal Reserve is committed to bringing inflation down to 2%. That's according to Neil kashkari. The Minneapolis fed president says he's not seeing a U.S. wage price spiral yet. Kashkari does not vote on the monetary policy this year. On Thursday, the Bank of England is expected to step up its fight against inflation, joining some 70 other institutions around the world into delivering a half point rate hike in a bid to tamp down red hot prices. Global news, 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists at Alice in more than a 120 countries. I'm James Walcott. This is Bloomberg, Stephen. James, thank you very much for that. Now in Germany, parliament is turning down the thermostat, the presidential palace is no longer less at night, pools aren't allowed to be heated. I mean, it's the policies across the country are preparing heating havens to keep people safe from the cold this winter dragged out of decades of denial by Russia's moves to squeeze gas deliveries Europe's largest economy is scrambling to get ready for its hardest winter in decades. That is the subject of today's Bloomberg big take and for more on that we're joined by William wilks who worked on the story. Good morning to you William. Thank you for being with us. Good morning. Can Germany cost fuel demand? We've heard about some of the steps they're taking there. Yeah, I think the first question is, how much can Germany cut fuel demand without cutting production if you like kind of key materials like chemicals and steel? And I think the answer is probably not much more. In terms of gas prices have been sky high for months in terms of being cutting all the unnecessary use of gas they can. And I think it's probably safe to assume that we're getting close to a point where all the low hanging fruit has been picked. And it's going to have an impact for the cuts on kind of production. So how much do you go back to your main question? How much demand can Germany actually cut probably enough to offset a complete stuff in Russian deliveries, but it's people that could really going to feel it. It's going to lead to job losses, people are going to come and politicians are going to come under pressure from angry voters. We're going to see things like swimming pools, restaurants, sports sensors closed, perhaps similar to what happened during lockdown. So yeah, in short, do you have any hand cut more gas? But it can't that much more gas without having a noticeable impact on people's lives? So what sort of alternatives is Germany focused on then and most importantly, how quickly can they ramp up other supply? In terms of alternative, again, it's kind of limited. Do you have any views as a lot of gas for heating and a lot of lectures to generation? Let's just quickly look at kind of the heating question. There aren't that many alternatives to swapping fuels. Some households might be lucky and have a wood burning stove or like an electricity one. And they might be kind of simultaneous to gas, but you can't just put another fuel in a gas boiler. It's like filling your car with another kind of killing a petrol car with diesel car. It would just break. And in industry, there are some alternatives to some industrial processes in relatively simple heating processes where you just need to generate steam. You can maybe use coal or oil. But again, it's limited and for a lot of high-tech precision equipment. You can't just put oil in a $15 million gas turbine. It just doesn't work. And even with the kind of wood burning stoves, environmentally really destructive at really bad air pollution.

MSCI Pacific Germany Pearson HSBC James Wilcox Neil kashkari Kashkari James Walcott
"james walcott" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

04:17 min | 5 months ago

"james walcott" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Over a number 11 at a time when the UK economy is seeing the fastest inflation in 40 years. This was known about the economic views, but his advocated for tax cuts in the past. A new chance to have been a staunch defender of the prime minister throughout the party at scandal. In London, I'm James Walcott, Bloomberg, daybreak, Europe. Now adding to the political chaos, the Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey has warned the economic picture is drastically worsening. Global economic outlook is the two related markedly global financial conditions as the whole of Titan significantly and developments in Russia's invasion of Ukraine are a key factor. Affecting the global outlook. Andrew Bailey was speaking after the Central Bank published its financial stability report yesterday, the UK already faces the prospect of being one of the worst performing economies in the G 20 next year, second only to Russia. Okay, so that's UK news. Now the German government is rushing through legislation to allow it to rescue struggling energy companies, talks are continuing over a bailout for the gas giant Juniper, which is heavily dependent on Russian supplies. The company is said to need as much as €9 billion that's around twice its market value, the economy minister Robert harbeck says that the German government is, quote, sharpening its tools to maintain energy supplies this winter, the bill includes a mechanism to allow companies to pass on, part of the surge in costs of gas to consumers. Sources told Bloomberg that Bridgewater associates posted a 32% return for its flagship hedge fund through the first half of 2022 as it benefited from increased market volatility. Bloomberg's Charlie palette has the story. That source says the firm founded by ray dalio told investors that the pure alpha two fund climbed 4.8% in June, boosting the annualized return since its 1991 inception to 11.4%. Like many other macro funds, Bridgewater's pure alpha strategy is rebounding after years of struggle, eking out a nominal annualized gain over a decade before posting a return of about 8% in 2021. Macro funds are flourishing as central banks raise rates to combat surging inflation, which has been exacerbated by soaring energy prices. In New York, Charlie pellet, Bloomberg daybreak Europe. So those are some of our top stories this morning. Let's get more of the markets and bring in our markets live editor Heather Burke, had the good morning. Thank you so much for being with us. Look, firstly, on the political issues, they've obviously hit Sterling this morning, but it's also about a stronger U.S. dollar you've got the Euro 20 year low. What's going on in FX markets? I mean, definitely, the political actions over at 10 Downing Street are definitely not good for the pound, but the bigger story is the dollar haven that we're seeing. For Sterling, the UK specific. The UK's economy is in a tight place. We're having the worst cost of living crisis in a generation. The BOE expects inflation above 11% in October when energy bills are set to jump. So definitely the resignations that we've seen in itself are not affecting the pound as much but kind of bring a highlight on the macro issues. In addition to dollar haven status propelled the dollar against most major currencies. Heather, we're also expecting the FOMC minutes later today. What should we be looking out for? Had some calls now for 75 basis point hikes. We're definitely, is that going to come up? But that kind of feeds into the dollar that we're seeing right now. The dollar is benefiting from like a fed that is determined to hike to control inflation. And also fears of a recession. And that will be something else to look at the FOMC minutes. Our fed members fearing an economic slowdown and how might that translate into dollar strength? Yep, Heather, thank you so much for being with us. Heather Burke there for what our market commentary and analysis check out markets live on your Bloomberg terminal

German government Andrew Bailey James Walcott UK Robert harbeck Bridgewater associates Charlie palette Russia ray dalio Bloomberg daybreak Bank of England Charlie pellet Heather Burke
"james walcott" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

07:07 min | 6 months ago

"james walcott" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"This morning are down close to 7 tenths of 1% traders are awaiting the European Central Bank decision 1245 the winding down of asset purchases the path of rate hikes ahead now in terms of bond markets here in Europe and you've got German benchmark yields this morning down by one and a half basis points of one 33 Italian B2B dropped 5 basis points to 3.32% U.S. yields are also down a basis point in terms of yields with 3.01% there The other thing we're watching of course the Euro the spot price at one spot zero 6 9 8 so down by two tens of 1% UK natural gas futures have soared this morning 38% the far at this Texas LNG export facility oil prices breakthrough at a 120 feet 35 is down two tenths of 1% and U.S. stock futures this morning currently down for the NASDAQ but slight gains for the S&P 500 those are the markets Tom Okay we just have some redheads crossing the terminal just to briefly bring to your attention China may retail passenger vehicle sales falling more than 17% year on year just an underscoring of the economic pain and the constraints on the consumer in China amid COVID zero policy of course also redhead reliance on Apollo consortium said to make a binding bid for boots We'll get more details on that if and when that comes through We begin of course with the European Central Bank markets are bracing for one of the most pivotal meetings in years Bloomberg's James Walcott has more Options pricing suggests that traders haven't been this jittery about an ECB rate decision since 2019 The Central Bank is set to enqueue and set out a path towards its first rate hikes since 2011 when it meets today But what traders really want to know is a president Christine the guard would back 50 basis point hikes in the future as the Eurozone faces inflation accelerating at a record pace In London James wolcott Bloomberg daybreak Europe And as interest rates rise around the world the UK housing market appears to be cooling demand from perspective home buyers fell last month as higher rates in the cost of living crisis hit the property market proposed Lizzie burden has all the details With inflation and interest rates climbing and the Bank of England expected to tighten policy further next week Economists warnings have been piling up that have slowed down in the UK housing market is on the horizon This morning a survey by the royal institution of chartered surveyors shows just that the housing market is as determining point with demand for UK homes down for the first time since August and the cost of living crisis taking a toll on the property market Prime minister Boris Johnson is also expected to announce plans to an unlock home ownership at a speech in Lancashire today In London I'm Lizzie burden Bloomberg daybreak Europe Okay that will be Boris Johnson's first big policy speech since narrowly winning a vote on his leadership earlier this week The plan will try to help more people to save the deposits and access mortgage financing the prime minister also promised policies to help people cut costs in other areas with inflation at a four decade high of 9% And now turning to finance speculation about a takeover of Credit Suisse's heating up there is an unconfirmed report that saint street is looking to buy the Swiss bank U.S. analysts are skeptical babson college lecturer Peter Cohen calls the acquisition a terrible idea Investment bank out there It hasn't really recovered from the Great Recession back in 2008 And I think if state street has some extraordinarily skilled people who can manage a very difficult investment bank and turn it around I would say it's a fantastic thing to get a cheap but I just don't see them having the management chops to do it Peter Cohen at babson college there while he says that the businesses of Credit Suisse and state street are very different state street isn't commenting on the speculation shares of Credit Suisse rallied yesterday on the news but are down this morning Staying on Wall Street Kathy Woods flagship fund continues to see outflows The ark investment CEO is defending the poor performance blaming inflation and monetary policy If you look at our performance our flagship performance from the low in COVID to the peak in February of 21 That was 360% increase Innovation solves problems We had a lot of problems through the coronavirus innovation soft problems We were rewarded accordingly Since then peak to trough when we hit our job thank goodness we passed it Down 75% Why Inflation and interest rates In an interview with Bloomberg Kathy wood said the greatest risk facing the U.S. economy right now is actually deflation She says massive inventories in the U.S. suggest the pace of price rises will soon slow down Okay so those are our top stories this morning Now to the main the main event really for traders at 1245 today the European Central Bank is expected to begin a new era of monetary policy as officials pivot to confront soaring inflation Christina garz press conference then at one 30 we've got a tea live blog on the terminal but we also crucially have your honor and with us now this morning Bloomberg's European Central Bank correspondent Jana you've been a great sport this morning You've answered all of our questions What are we expecting then at this crucial decision at 1245 Yeah good morning So what we are likely to see is the ECB announcing an end of asset purchases very very soon Christie Macarthur said very early in July So a couple of more weeks of asset purchases and that's that The program has been running since 2015 to combat deflation in the Eurozone series with inflation rates more than 8% that is no longer necessary What we also expecting is on the future path of interest rates of course the president has said a list of us likely in July We expect that to be confirmed And we might even get some indication as to how high that first interested high quality Some many arguably we'll find it remarkable that they are still buying assets at a time of inflation above 8% Where are we with the debate Rana at January within the halls of power at the ECB about 25 basis points versus 50 basis points Yes So the more hawkish officials are clearly in favor of a 50 basis point hike to show not just to invest in not just to the market but also to consumers who are battling with those high prices That they are serious about fighting inflation and that they got it at that they are aware and that they're doing something about it On the other hand you have governors from peripheral countries Most relevant from Italy and Spain Who are concerned that higher interest rates will actually blow out boring costs will widen spreads even more than they then expectations of our higher rates already have And that a debt crisis will essentially return to the region They are concerned they want to commitment from.

ECB Apollo consortium U.S. UK James Walcott The Central Bank Credit Suisse James wolcott Boris Johnson Europe Lizzie Peter Cohen babson college
"james walcott" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

07:16 min | 7 months ago

"james walcott" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Thank you UK inflation has risen to its highest level since Margaret Thatcher was prime minister more than 40 years ago Bloomberg's James wolcott reports Consumer prices searched 9% in the year to April the fastest rate since 1982 and more than double the pace of basic wage growth Almost 2% of that increase came from a jump in energy prices Now the Bank of England is predicting double digit inflation by October when energy builds unlikely to jump again Meanwhile political anger is building Yesterday a poll found three and four people thought the government was handling inflation poorly Teams Wilcox in London Bloomberg daybreak Europe Over in the U.S. chair Jerome Powell says the fed will keep raising interest rates until it sees clear evidence that inflation is cooling Pal has made his most hawkish remarks yet at a Wall Street Journal event saying he won't hesitate to push rates past neutral if needed Inflation is coming down That's what we really need to see So we'll be watching for that If that involves moving past broadly understood levels of neutral we won't hesitate at all to do that A pal also repeatedly stressed that price stability is the feds top a priority NATO says Finland and Sweden have officially applied for membership of the military alliance both previously confirmed that they would do so explaining the security situation has changed ever since Russia's decision to invade Ukraine Sweden's ambassador to the UK Mikayla kumlin granite says she is optimistic their application will be accepted We are of course closely watching and listening to the mixed messages coming from turkey We are also engaging in dialog around these issues And I think that we are quite optimistic that we will be able to solve these understandings and so forth But there could be a barrier in the way turkey is against the move accusing the country's of supporting Kurdish militants at president Erdoğan's government regards as terrors all 30 current members must agree to them joining And in top corporate news a unit of alliance has pleaded guilty to fraud after and agreed to pay $5.8 billion after misrepresenting the risk posed by a group of hedge funds that collapsed during the pandemic The deal closes an embarrassing episode for the German insurance giant which has also agreed to sell the bulk of Allianz global investors U.S. as part of a settlement with the SEC global news 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg quicktake powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in will then 120 countries and leann gerrans this is Bloomberg Caroline Thank you so much lions with our top stories this morning and you heard there from Bloomberg's James Walcott about the pressure now on the Bank of England and government when it comes to rising prices So you came inflation the highest since Margaret Thatcher was prime minister everybody says that with a great sigh but it's not that long ago I will say Bloomberg's UK economy team leader Reed lamberg is here with us To talk through today's inflation data I mean what is driving admittedly figures that are eye watering and putting huge pressure on consumers and businesses Well the biggest driver of course is to energy prices of April is the month that energy prices energy bills were allowed to go up again So there was a wholesale rise in gas markets and electric power markets that resulted in a 54% increase in energy bills to consumers and that's the main driver But there's other things as well Food and drink are up 6.7% culture is up 5.9% People go to restaurants and hotels are paying 8% more furniture is 10.7% higher So it's inflation across the board What does it mean then read for the BOE are they going to have to step up the rate hikes that had four already markets pricing in potentially up to two and a half percent by the first quarter of next year Are we going to have to see a more aggressive reaction from the BOE Will the bank of penguin just said that most members of the 9 member monetary policy committee think the interest rates are going to have to go up again The debate is just how much the market investors are thinking interest rates are going to go up one and a half percentage points The 2.5% at the end of next year economists are more cautious They see two more interest rate rises to one and a half percent This summer and then there will be a pause So the question is how much they're going to raise but I think the direction is clear they're racing Reid we were speaking to just earlier this week the UK jobs number is showing this very very tight labor market I mean there is a concern isn't there that Bank of England rate rises are not going to be the issue that really brings inflation down that they will effectively simply bring demand down rather than supply side inflation I think there's a lot of concern out there among businesses that a growth is going to slow and be you've got these real headwinds in the form of higher interest rates and higher inflation So we had some quite punchy comments out from the institute of directors saying business investment is likely to slow and that's a real concern because UK business investment is lagging other major economies in the G 7 It's one of the things that's one of the long-term structural problems with the economy So if you're a business sitting on their hands that's definitely going to produce a sharp slowdown These headlines I mean of course front and center for newspapers the reaction today 40% 40 year high for these inflation figures and a poll and we got this on the front page of the website royal Johnson's trailing labor in the poll on how he's handling UK inflation at some point the government is going to be forced to act and come out with additional fiscal support What is the impact of that What can we expect from the government There is a great deal of political debate about what the government should do To date greasy student act is targeted aid to people in jobs Skipping over pensioners people who are young people are benefits They have not really enjoyed the Chancellor's largest Labor is saying those harder hit groups need to be targeted So it's a real big political debate now exactly what they do and there's a lot of talk out there but there's not a lot of direction of what the government is actually going to do The chance we're actually had a comment this morning saying we can't protect you from all these increases This is a global issue We'll do what we can Yeah well that really be enough We shall see Reid Thank you so much for being with us It's been both UK economy team leader Reid landberg and coming up next we'll have more on this very issue Andrea felstead Yeah talking about how British consumers this is her opinion and finally.

Bank of England Bloomberg James wolcott Jerome Powell Margaret Thatcher UK Mikayla kumlin president Erdoğan Sweden leann gerrans Bloomberg Caroline James Walcott Reed lamberg turkey military alliance
"james walcott" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

05:19 min | 8 months ago

"james walcott" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Morning and thank you in France Emmanuel Macron heads into Sunday's first round presidential vote with his lead over marine le pen looking a little shaky The latest polls indicate he can eke out a win in the first round and then prevail in the runoff on April 24th when an advantage of 52% versus 48% So right here in London metal traders are still reeling from the historic squeeze in nickel a month ago inventories at the exchanges warehouses across the 6 main contracts on the London metal exchange have plunged to the lowest on record in data going back to 1997 That has increasing the threat of further spikes in everything from aluminum to zinc Zinc inventories have plunged as a Singapore based multinational commodity trading company to figure out booked out a large volumes And finally European Union member states have agreed to ban coal imports from Russia The first time the blockers targeted Moscow's crucial energy revenues the sanctions package coordinated with the U.S. and UK also bars most Russian trucks and ships from entering the EU in the U.S. Congress has voted overwhelmingly to strip Russia of its normal trade status putting it in the same category as pariah states such as North Korea and Cuba a ban on imports of gas oil and coal also passed with bipartisan support Global news 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg quicktake powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries I'm leann gorons this is Bloomberg Caroline Thank you so much Leon Garros with all of today's top stories Now you were just mentioning Europe's ban on Russian coal imports It's the first real move in targeting Moscow's crucial energy revenue weaning Europe off Russian energy after the attack Well given the ongoing attack on Ukraine And that is the main topic expected in terms of the discussion the meeting between Boris Johnson and the German Chancellor olav shop who arrives in the UK this lunchtime and will expect also a press conference Joining us now is Bloomberg's James Walcott to discuss How do Germany and the UK differ then in their responses to Russia's invasion so far Good morning Caroline So I mean it's worth bearing in mind just taking a step back and saying over the past hundred years it has often been the case that the UK and Russia have joined up to be taking on Germany and world wars Now we're looking at the case where Germany's relatively new leader of that Schultz is coming here to discuss how to respond to Russia Now they are very different cultures and backgrounds Germany is far more reliant on Russia in terms of its energy and economic needs and trade in the UK The UK also has a past history of enmity in Russia in the past decade with sort of poisoning that they've been and the scribbles and seeing nerve agent on us inside its borders They've also had to take major action in very different ways Germany has cut off access to Nord stream two the much faded pipeline that would take more gas from Russia whereas the UK has had to take a difficult choice to clamp down on the amount of Russian money circulating its financial sector Another sort of different way of looking at this is how they are providing aid the UK is far more military aid but has had a real issue taking in refugees whereas Germany is far more poised to do humanitarian aid So in terms of how both countries are addressing this problem they come from very different kind of original positions to where they're kind of meeting today Okay so yeah very interesting in terms of the background So why is Schultz here in the UK for discussions about Ukraine today Why is he visiting London I talked about reporters in Berlin about this What's driving Schultz Now Ukraine's president zelensky himself was saying that Macron and Schultz are more keen on a peace deal They are pushing to try and broker with Putin and zelensky a way of bringing the fight into the end The UK stands far more in kind of the more hawkish people With the Eastern European nations towards recreating Russia they want to keep pushing sanctions further faster and harder Boris Johnson has been calling for stepping up energy sanctions beyond coal and looking more Oil and gas Now the question here is Johnson met with the Polish president duda also in London yesterday Now he meets with Schultz today Schultz will be looking sort of discuss how what Johnson could bring zelensky on terms in terms of the peace deal What can they bring on board with Johnson's consumed by zelensky as one of the most supportive leaders of Ukraine whereas Johnson will be trying to push Schultz on how far can the rest of Europe be moved to push on sanctions Yeah I think it's going to be a really fascinating moment isn't it And this is also a sort of reset perhaps of the UK's relationship with Germany post Brexit I think is going to be fascinating to watch that press conference also to see the kind of personal relationship But obviously I love shots was in power Under Angela Merkel for a long time too but I still think it would be quite a pivotal moment So we should watch that Thank you so much James for being with me And talking us through one aspect of the diplomacy So Olaf shots and Boris Johnson meeting in London's day over Ukraine The other big story though that I want to get to today in just a moment is Shanghai's COVID lockdown.

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"james walcott" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

04:20 min | 9 months ago

"james walcott" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"This is Bloomberg daybreak Europe We will continue on a remorseless mission to squeeze Russia from the global economy peace by peace day by day and week by week We're dealing with an individual who doesn't play by the rules So I've always been very clear by the fact that nobody goes so far It is indeed a very dangerous moment It is basically the rewriting of these shorty system that we've known in Europe since the end of the Cold War Bloomberg daybreak Europe on Bloomberg radio On a very good morning Pablo and I'm Caroline hep you're welcome to daybreak Europe but there's Tuesday morning So how to reach a ceasefire in the war in Ukraine We are going to discuss the negotiations in turkey with Bloomberg's Dan ten Kate in just a moment Meanwhile Andrew Bailey yesterday said that the UK faces a historic hit to real incomes will unpack the Barclays story a bizarre Bond blunder Tom Metcalf from Bloomberg's finance team will be joining us as we also await the first batch of party gate finds for people close to the prime minister Bloomberg's James Walcott will have the latest on that story too Let's go to the markets then this morning Asian stocks at this morning are higher MSCI Asia Pacific index gaining 7 tenths of 1% the nikkei two two 5 at 1.1% Some small decline so in China really the big focus of the markets though has been this unprecedented bank of Japan intervention trying to cap a surge in yields The swings in the Japanese yen at the moment though the Japanese yen is stronger two tenths of 1% one 23 59 We have a slightly stronger dollar index Bloomberg dollar spot index there is down a tenth of 1% For bond markets U.S. two year yields have fixed ended and advanced climbing by 9 basis points at the moment ten year yields at two 46 we're watching for inversion perhaps of the twos tens getting very close to that 12 basis points Traders have also increased their bets on a faster pace of ECB typing oil is slumping this morning currently we're down 6 cents of 1% for breakthrough futures at a $111 the bow And we've also had some earnings out this morning from the big China banks China construction bank and the bank of China this morning Let's get to some more market commentary then this morning from our markets live editor lorcan Roche Kelly Really good to have you on lorcan So what is the market view then on this bank of Japan intervention how strong is it How long can it last I think it's obviously very strong but the cap is 0.25% on the ten year sort of looking for the same just below that at the moment So it's kind of very hard to get the Central Bank as we all know And I think there's a few other things going on there kind of interesting at the opposite but obviously the end of the fiscal year in Japan for people trying to get their houses ordered So this is why it's probably useful for a lot of people in Japan And also we've got the register that will begin at today we had a jeopardy finance minister saying that maybe the end moves to make sure they're not opposed at risk for the country So there's quite a lot going on there So the unlimited one byte is probably useful philosophy because it is certainly the Japanese market Okay what about vix We've talked a lot about volatility but it seems to have come down Yesterday 19.63 So if you look at the stock market health performing for the last two three weeks it's very easy a very calculated kind of the big moves we saw at the outbreak of the war were up disappeared that we've lost both in asset classes like you said or your oil is 45% What stocks would be really quite gentle and necessary to go to is that if you look at some of the big products at the moment the Barclays products that were out Oversold I think maybe what happened So there's kind of a lot going on there but the vix itself is incredibly quite upload 20 look at it Let's talk about the rocket launch Yeah so the fear index the fear gauge on Wall Street the really coming down despite all of the turbulence that we've seen in the last month or so Thank you so much for looking for being with me Look in Roche Kelly there For real-time market commentary and an artist check out markets live MLI V on your blue back terminal So what's happening in UK politics Let's get an update here's Bloomberg's Lee.

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