17 Burst results for "James Mccormack"

"james mccormack" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

09:36 min | 1 year ago

"james mccormack" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Influential conversations from Bloomberg television here is Yvonne man credit ratings agency Fitch has nearly half its baseline global growth forecast for this year to one point three percent let's bring in James McCormack Fitch's global head of sovereign ratings James thank you so much for joining us just reading your your reports I'm guessing this all happened are you wrote this before we we heard of these flash PMI's in Europe the the contraction that we saw in manufacturing the U. S. and of course more lockdowns that we're hearing it in parts of Asia as well how difficult is it now to make these types of assumptions when this is such a fluid situation and the data right now the eggs doesn't exactly reflect the full extent of this outbreak yeah good morning you're you're you're absolutely right to the numbers that you that you quoted in terms of global GDP growth one point three percent you know we put that together a week ago a little more than a week ago which seems like an awfully long time ago we were we were then thinking about sort of two zero two scenarios are two cases one is the base case which we set those numbers too which was really a global contraction in Q. one and Q. two recovery in Q. Q. three and Q. four the downside would be in the lockdown six banding the economic impact being more severe unemployment taking hold in the global economy really contracting for the year as a whole you're more interviews like this one on Bloomberg television streaming live on Bloomberg dot com and on the Bloomberg mobile app or check your local cable listings markets headlines and breaking news twenty four hours a day at dot com the Bloomberg business the Bloomberg business slash I'm here in Moscow U. S. stock index futures arrange their gains for the most part European stocks are fluctuating treasuries rebounding as investors wait for details on government rescue packages to counter the head from the pandemic we check the markets every fifteen minutes throughout the trading day on Bloomberg right now S. and P. futures are down twenty one points and nasdaq futures are down sixty seven Dow futures higher up twenty three the dax in Germany is down one percent ten year treasury up to thirty seconds he'll twenty three percent the yield on the two year point three five percent in the thirty year yield one point three eight percent NYMEX crude oil is down about two percent and forty seven cents at twenty three fifty three apparel comex gold on one point nine percent or thirty one dollars twenty cents at sixteen thirty one ten announce the euro is at one point oh eight oh six against the dollar the British pound one point one eight six nine and again said one eleven point two eight the Vicks at sixty five point nine two that's a Bloomberg business slash Tom John and Lisa thank you thank you very much this pick up on the FX market channel a couple of days at the awareness the pound stronger by nine tenths of one percent the U. advancing by a little more than a tenth of one percent told Lisa I know both of you have been really on top of this in the last couple of weeks time specifically you looking at this huge run up in the U. S. dollar this massive demand for dollars off the back of a lot of force liquidation and I'm just wondering whether we're working our way through that phase and coming out the other end of it you know part of the John is you know the sophistication of it we've got a very sophisticated global Wall Street audience so they all understand solvency versus liquidity and some of them understand the fixed income flows to swap markets and all the rest of it but John is you bring inner steam gas from London might I suggest is just about fear well it sounds good he joins us from the heart of foreign exchange the capital of FX trading right Jeremy stretch CIBC's head of FX strategy and Jeremy typically there's a ton of liquidity in the FX market in a place like London the last couple of weeks thousand really original moments just talk to us about how strange is pain at times Jeremy it has been a remarkable period and it could he have been evident in a number of episodes that we've seen some incredible news in place county but also in terms of the spread in terms of the paid off a level so just on the line but market makers in general general market sentiment is really clean enough felt very unnatural state I know you mentioned there is no happiness continues perception of the fellowship with each other that house precipitated this significant run towards your fellow solutions margin squeezes I would say not funding pressures or something that's been extended because but it's been a it's been a sort of old things that have really helped to precipitate this big run up in the political development process is dollar shortage still there while I was on the line in the moment to do that on that level best to try and alleviate the answer is because I think if you look at some of the metrics if you're looking at the years and years of a three month basis for for example out of mine a hundred twenty eight last week when I was told what the territory so that would suggest the big rush for those in the from the user interface is diminished but nevertheless in terms of yeah and there is still that designed for U. S. dollars enough money to be a function of time fiscal year ended with your coming on early next week said there are still some Parkinson's shortages and also some concerns in the course of the county some degree of stability on a contract basis all data levels disability non the less in terms of equity space or in terms of the market marketing channel loosen the margin cold it was saying and of course we finance eighty almost explosion intelligent automated landing over the course of the last decade and they will be seen as knowledge of being told never to do that so quiet she also does in home sick if we can see some degree of stability nascent market battles that helps alleviate some of that funding stresses Jeremy there's been a lot of concern over the last few weeks that the increasing dollar strength what happened all of global markets considering how everything is hinged on it there was even talk about potential intervention by the US government do you see that as a feasibility a unilateral basis but not to you can also clearly I think one of the concerns that many in the market place hi about C. controls to thinking back to the Alaska permanent fund is now I don't know I wasn't of course the solutions that will put forward with very much of a coordinated fashionistas one of the particular concerns this time around is the lack of coordination between the different individual nations of all differences according every nation every continent being impacted sending you on the line would be would hardly be benefits in terms of the process clearly for many nations with the thing that's funny because growing exponentially because of that you do not have that domestic council doesn't because there will be you in terms of keeping up with all of that I think we are yes it's necessarily the point where we can expect to see some degree of mechanism to try and alleviate the dollar strength I think they even from the strains which which we've just been talking about handle some aftermarket facility I think will be a much better mechanism lawlessness is really going down this winter thinking about some degree of cool nine people non cool nineteen seventy two may seem pretty hard to make a market Colin I have sympathy with everyone of the cell site this gonna put out a full counts for anything right now because so much is on full constable the look in a foreign exchange we had some huge dislocations including cable the pound against the US dollar two Mondays ago we had a one twenty four handle on the pound against the dollar now this past Monday on cable with a one fourteen handle Jenny quickly we've closed some of that gap over the last couple days just over the last forty eight hours on Monday if you're looking at any currency pass at a moment of thinking that's been too big at this location that gap is going to close in the coming weeks what do you like it is very difficult my full capacity and I use the internet since you all thinking about the degree of movement in certain markets and thinking whether that is declines award precision dollar printable so you will know when we assume you'll be down near fifty five and sixty they're not looked on the continent of the corrected to a degree about setting up against anyone because of course another you can see a very aggressive monetary policy and fiscal response which okay could you want all of you have been relatively successful also wearing gaps in terms of the self employed and protected for example you could say that now they're off to other emerging issues which will act as an obvious had studies that I think if you get any money and that's a one twenty structure would be closer to you this morning I think that would be a little bit of a fire at this particular point I think for me the only senior starting from those extremes up would not automatically I think probably provide him some better value because I think there are still some inherent issues in terms of the U. K. of course you shouldn't lose sight of the fact that the clock is the government did not recognize the need for the gold button I don't think anyone's got the spec it has today to talk about brexit right now Jeremy thank you the city Lisa can you imagine talking about brexit well this place is it's New York City Lisa and it's rubbing his well I mean honestly this is the one thing that makes brexit no longer relevant topic we've done it actually she has told white sites renowned worldwide right now yeah we talk fancy we talk global Wall Street journal every night a waffle house of course yeah our mission while for certain certain down three hundred some restaurants the closest waffle.

Fitch James McCormack Fitch global head Bloomberg Yvonne
"james mccormack" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

01:53 min | 1 year ago

"james mccormack" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Is Yvonne man credit ratings agency Fitch has nearly half its baseline global growth forecast for this year to one point three percent let's bring in James McCormack Fitch's global head of sovereign ratings James thank you so much for joining us just reading your your reports I'm guessing this all happened are you wrote this before we we heard of these flash PMI's in Europe the the contraction that we saw in manufacturing the U. S. and of course more lockdowns that we're hearing it in parts of Asia as well how difficult is it now to make these types of assumptions when this is such a fluid situation and the data right now the eggs doesn't exactly reflect the full extent of this outbreak yeah good morning you're you're you're absolutely right to the numbers that you that you quoted in terms of global GDP growth one point three percent you know we put that together a week ago a little more than a week ago which seems like an awfully long time ago we were we were then thinking about sort of two zero two scenarios are two cases one is the base case which we set those numbers to which was a really a global contraction in Q. one and Q. two recovery in Q. Q. three and Q. four the downside would be in the lockdown expanding the economic impact being more severe unemployment taking hold in the global economy really contracting for the year the whole year more interviews like this one on Bloomberg television streaming live on Bloomberg dot com and on the Bloomberg mobile app or check your local cable listings markets headlines and breaking news twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg dot com the Bloomberg business please visit Bloomberg business slash Moscow futures on the rise this morning S. and P. futures up about twenty five points the Dow futures at four hundred twenty five an Aztec futures at eighty four the dachshund Germany's up nine tenths of a percent ten year treasuries little changed now point eighty four percent is the yield the yield on the.

Fitch James McCormack Fitch global head Europe Asia Germany Yvonne Bloomberg Moscow
"james mccormack" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

06:03 min | 1 year ago

"james mccormack" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"With more on what's going on around the world soldier thank you dramatic scenes in Venezuela's opposition leader one quite does stormed the national listen people they it was first on call it's two days after president Nicolas Maduro is loyalist blocked him from attending his own reelection the incident occurred as as rival for the position of parliamentary speaker how the session insulate lawmakers then voted to recognize quite does speak at a teenager spread jail after being found guilty of lying about a rape in Cyprus has arrived back in the U. K. the nineteen year old touched down at Heathrow airport and left fully appointed exit she said she was attacked by a group with Israeli tourists and I am not that the police then made her withdrew the allegations and finally ten years ago the biggest story in the world but now the saga is coming to an end the International Monetary Fund is ready to leave Greece for good closing in Athens office last year grew three paid some of the money it owed to the IMF ahead of schedule appliance repair even more this year to prove the crisis is now really over for good global needs twenty four hours a day on it and a quick take by being but it's playable than twenty seven hundred Jennison on the symbol them one hundred and twenty countries onion Gerrans this is Bloomberg of what to Leon thank you for that now highlighting some of our best emerging market reporting on the terminal and today we're focusing on how assets to react to the coast of the Iran US tensions which took a dramatic turn overnight in particular Asia's emerging currencies have been retreating this morning led by south Korea's one in reaction to this phone is ringing Bloomberg's emerging markets and it's a whole world is so full I mean we just getting within the last few into question track from the Iranian ambassador here in London high me bunny genet Chad saying Iran's act was self defense is enshrined in the U. N. charts our own forces are quite ready to forcefully respond against any adventurism he says Iran does not seek escalation to war that's in the general tone so have investors lives perhaps slightly eased only since we're getting both Washington and Tehran that they may not be a further escalation hi Roger yes that seems to be what we're seeing in markets this morning global market sort of quite heavily on Friday when news of house and Senate it's Sunday monies and killing emerged and on Monday to yesterday was sort of risk on day markets were more lax today they initially reacted with quite a lot of Islam when news of Iran strikes on U. S. rocky at bases came out but they since gone back into sort of a much will relax mode and that's partly because of Donald trump's reaction on Twitter he didn't suggests that the US was going to retaliate to this morning's missile strikes in in Iraq which markets of her I've taken positively and and they seem to think that this conflict is not going to board now too much will serve escalate into an all out war in the in the Middle East or anything like that I'm look I thought was interesting one of our previous guests from face level ratings James McCormack was saying that she sylvan ratings I'm in the region to take into account the risks but my question is is there not a danger that investors are actually being too complacent hi Caroline yes that's some they does seem to be a bit of a divide between investors at the moment and some sort of political analyst and analysts especially those in the oil market and some of the latter is saying and the markets are being too complacent and that they should be factoring in much more the possibility of this of this as of this conflict escalating and they say that markets underestimating the willingness and ability of the Iranians to attack US and U. S. allied targets I'm but for the moment for for global investors they almost seem to be saying this is a bit of a as sort of a short term problem I'm in the longer run them much more interested in you know US China trade talks and while I have been they've certainly being unnerved by by this sort of flare up in in the lease and and medicine tensions at the start of this yeah it's does it is that they're far from being in panic mode cool I mean it takes three with some of the where is you might not perhaps expecting the end there is to be responding to this and I was I was telling me yesterday that the Philippine pesos having a really rough time potentially in the likes of pressures to do with this in the price of oil going up and when you see the vulnerabilities well if we look at them if we look at sort of the main emerging markets the fed the the Philippines Paso is it yeah it is one asset that Alyssa flagging as something that could be hit particularly hard and that's because the Philippines is a big net energy importer so it's going to be hit hard by any rise in oil prices I'm the same the same is true for India and investors are sort of worried about the the Indian rupee if if oil prices sort of rise rise much more from here and also Turkey turkeys and always and a country that suffers when oil prices rise but for the moment investors seem to be thinking that this the the rise in oil prices have we seen is not going to go much further and saying it's not they don't think it's going to be damaging enough to sort of ed to to sort of the global economy that's that's what they're looking at if if it does come to that point then you know with a global economy set then for a major market assets will potentially be hit yeah cool thank you so much for joining us this morning Paul Wallace provokes emerging markets and.

Venezuela
"james mccormack" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

06:25 min | 2 years ago

"james mccormack" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Who says all parties will join forces during negotiations. so the whole team your heart we unanimously decided that we're going to gather in the negotiations to form a government headed by me we will manage the negotiations with one delegation is shared by all the parties. level needs twenty four hours a day on Erin at tech talk on Twitter upon by more than twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts symbol the one hundred and twenty countries I'm young Gerrans this is playing back Caroline thank you so mostly on for the updates now it's not just global interest rates that are moving Lois so friend credit ratings are also in decline that's according to fix his twenty nineteen global sovereign conference on the documents around that that conference gets underway in London today and I'm pleased to say that we have the head of sovereigns Fitch ratings James McCormack in order to see if I could to see this morning days thanks for coming in look. he makes a very interesting point about a number of markets that wanna sell with develops markets you focus on the issue of greatest concern negative yields they I'm not positive for credit worthiness this is possibly that people haven't thought about quite as much just explain why that is well I suppose intuitively when we think about lower yields are negative yields we we understand that to mean lower interest service burdens for governments which makes sense yeah the thing is if you look at the numbers and what governments have done with those savings they've typically spent it already and in most cases in Europe if you take kind of an average of use the euro zone for example they've spent it three or four times over so that means that if we ever enter a world of higher interest rates which presumably at some point in the future we will this is going to present new fiscal challenges for the governments of Europe what about the with with your impound the fate because he said they know gonna use negative rights as opposed to but it's possible having full fervor as your view of America. well it would be very similar I mean it's not necessarily a positive but the US is already triple a so I think from a credit perspective we're not we're not really as concerned about the United States for from a sovereign credit perspective but having said that the biggest developed markets in terms of is overseas the US the UK Japan and a city so if you can it's sleek collie on negative outlook so for others it has been a significant worry is that any hidden do you think from governments particularly I want to also a city in the U. K. the governments are actually taking these racing issues into consideration well I think what Italy in particular is now triple be country so the question we get asked from time to time about Italy is could this ever be a sub investment grade sovereign right that's really into emerging market territory SO clearly they are paying attention to to the rate not only the rating but the relationship with the European Union and all of the dialogue that surrounds the fiscal outlook in Italy markets are focused on it borrowing costs for Italy or very important how it takes less so in the UK the UK's a double a credit has some fiscal challenges which we think are going to be more pronounced no matter what happens with breaks it but I would say the rating as a key driver here but it's it's more important in Italy what about the whole trade war issue because that's all this is something that's very much in in everyone's minds I'm you've talked about it and what investors should be aware of it would you overly busy travel will be increasingly important in twenty twenty how do you think how do you see that going forward well we just have to look back to what's happened in the last day right the fed has cut interest rates soon really not very much has changed in terms of their view of the US economy if you look at the numbers that came out if you look at the statement that was that was published the only thing that's really changed as a trade war is you know we're farther down that road things of the escalated a little bit more we have more clarity on what's going. com assuming they follow the path so it is having an impact there's no question about that it's the biggest negative impact we see globally in terms of the economy we've revised down our growth numbers last week for the U. S. eurozone China all based on trade so the economic implications are quite are becoming more profound okay more profound and also a note on emerging markets as not forget Latin America as as in the center of oven of many downgrade the strong dollar is a real problem for them the biggest ball as Argentina Indonesia Saudi Arabia and tacky say there are significant poems also in emerging markets yeah absolutely there's probably more challenges he markets and there are in in the advanced economies and you mentioned the big borrowers but in Latin America you know Brazil is on a stable outlook but it's double be minus Mexico we've already downgraded Argentina in the last two weeks is being in and out of default we think it will probably go back to you to default in in Argentina country space not was a rapid change wasn't fairly rapid change it was on the back of the election outcome the past election outcome we haven't had the actual election yet that will be later in October so we think we know who's going to win but Latin America is a region where there's been the most concentrated downward pressure judge what about Turkey I mean the a lot of interest and he for all sorts of reasons not to mention a woman who was to do with the central bank independence all kinds stuff how you read into it yeah it's also on a negative outlook double be minus negative outlook so just on the verge of being a single be credit if you think back eighteen months ago or so Argentina and Turkey work of sort of talked about in the same breath Turkey has made a recovery in terms of the economy that Argentine was unable to make so in Turkey the dead the private sector is quite accustomed to dealing with Bala tile exchange rates and then you get this rapid reaction the current account has disappeared the trade deficit is disappeared so there's a recovery story there days thank you so much for coming into the lawn to. to do this morning that's James McCormack who is the head of sovereigns Fitch rating of course ahead of your twenty nineteen global solvent conference him in London speaking exclusively but we're very pleased with thanks very much indeed I'm coming up we're gonna be speaking to Evald Novotny he's the former governor of the Austrian central banks have a very good point to give us an insight into what the NC E. C. B. is up to that's coming up here on but it back. the.

twenty four hours eighteen months two weeks
"james mccormack" Discussed on Wall Street Breakfast

Wall Street Breakfast

06:49 min | 2 years ago

"james mccormack" Discussed on Wall Street Breakfast

"Welcome to seek him off his Wall Street breakfast. Your daily source of market news and analysis subscribe to this podcast on apple podcast Google podcasts spotify stitcher good morning today is Thursday September Twelfth Year listening to seeking out the leader in market news and analysis. I'M MARINA SHERYL IN FOR Steve Brown and this is Wall Street breakfast first our top stories today another wave of easiness ahead starting with the CB Dow Jones Industrial Average is primed for a seven day winning streak and jewel is entering China amid a US crackdown on vaping leading today's news. The Fun Begins Today with E. C. Then shifts to a likely fed rate cut next Wednesday as well as additional stimulus from the Bank of Japan and Swiss National Bank in the coming week. Today also marks the final stand for Mario Draghi who had hoped to close at his eight-year your term. ECB president with a modest increase investors are instead pricing impossible restart of the Central Banks Q. Program and deeper negative interest rates in a final attempt to ignite growth and inflation across the euro zone in recent years. The region has been plagued by a myriad of political challenges brexit uncertainty and the ongoing in trade war between Washington and Beijing in other market news the Dow Jones Industrial Average is primed for a seven day winning streak as president trump offered it goodwill gesture to China on tariffs suggesting potential progress in October talks. US futures gained on the move which will delay increase tariffs from twenty five percent to thirty eighty percent on two hundred and fifty billion worth of goods by two weeks. Caution is still in the air while such de-escalation intentions between the two countries is welcomed. It's it's still difficult to see both sides reaching any real resolution anytime soon so said Fitch's James McCormack oil paired in earlier earlier slump as the US postponed China tariff increases by two weeks while traders continue to watch the World Energy Congress in Abu Dhabi for any headlines that could move prices OPEC plus is scheduled to hold its ministerial monitoring committee meeting on the sidelines of the conference that includes Saudi Arabia's new oil minister to achieve market stability. It's important we sustain a high level of cohesiveness so said Prince Abdulaziz Bin Salman ahead of the gathering the set in its closely-watched monthly report whom Shell production has allowed the US to close in on and briefly overtake Saudi Arabia as the world's top oil exporter it comes at a time when the US is actively pursuing energy dominance putting downward pressure on prices at a time when the market is already struggling to cope with too much supply the installation elation of the necessary pipelines and terminals is continuing pace which will ensure that the trend continues rising food and fuel prices and disruption option of cross-border financial services are among the possible consequences of no deal brexit according to a secret file the UK government was forced to publish on Wednesday evening. The content of the five page document code-named Operation Yellowhammer is similar to the plan leaked last month to the Sunday Times but was dismissed by the government as out of date eight where that paper was described as a base case the new file claims to be quote a worst case scenario turning out to stops six the trump administration is prepping a ban and flavored e cigarettes as federal agencies probe an outbreak of a lung problem that killed at least six people and reportedly led to the sickness of hundreds of others amid a crackdown on vaping in the US Julius entering China with online storefronts on e commerce sites owned by Alibaba and JD COM more trouble in the smokes fear British American Tobacco is axion over two thousand employees globally by January in a move that will impact over twenty percent of its senior roles purdue Pharma has secured support from twenty three states and thousands of local governments for a multi-billion dollar deal that could enable the drugmaker to resolve much of the opioid we litigated faces through plan bankruptcy restructuring the Wall Street Journal reported resolving the entirety of litigation at once has proved challenging and the settlement it's still faces strong opposition the deal would see produce owners the sackler family contribute three billion over several years and potentially another one and a half billion or more as well as exiting the company which would emerge from bankruptcy run by trustees tasked with paint the claims anheuser Busch is continuing to explore an IPO in Hong Hong Kong of its Asia Pacific Unit Budweiser Brewing Company eight-pack two months after pulled the plan listing the world's largest brewer was aiming to sell as much as nine point in a billion in budweiser stock then offloaded its Australian subsidiary for eleven point three billion to seek relief from heavy debt burden an aggressive spending spree in recent years. I left the Belgium brewer with more than one hundred billion in debt at a time when beer sales are slowing worldwide losing majority control of the oil and gas company General Electric will reduce its ownership in Baker Hughes to thirty eight point four percent from just over fifty percent by June aiming to score two point seven billion in the process. It's raising the amount through a public offering of one hundred and fifteen million Baker Hughes Class A shares priced at twenty one fifty each and through a private sale of two two hundred fifty million clasby Baker shares. Ge expects to continue divesting the remainder of the oilfield services provider olding over time other market headlines Watch for on seeking Alpha groupon pursuing purchase that could include yelp Walmart unlimited grocery delivery goes nationwide Toyota biota testing solar powered press smile direct clubs said to price IPO above range blackstone closes biggest ever twenty and a half billion real estate funds funds Yahoo Japan takes three point seven billion stake in fashion etailers Gozo and Aramco taking careful steps over IPO legal risk risk as of six twenty am today stock futures gold and Bitcoin are all up while crude is down in key earnings news Aurora Cannabis's is down over ten percent after posting weak earnings guidance yesterday and on the Economic Calendar Watch for initial jobless claims at eight thirty that that concludes today's Wall Street breakfast thanks so much for listening for the best investment analysis and news on the web go seeking dot com subscribe to this podcast Google play apple podcast soundcloud spotify or stitcher. You can sign up for

US China apple Google president Saudi Arabia Mario Draghi Prince Abdulaziz Bin Salman ECB Bank of Japan Wall Street Journal Baker Hughes Abu Dhabi Swiss National Bank groupon Japan Toyota Washington
"james mccormack" Discussed on KQED Radio

KQED Radio

04:31 min | 2 years ago

"james mccormack" Discussed on KQED Radio

"This is marketplace, I'm KAI Ryssdal. Let me do a quick call back to my interview with pizza off the IMF chief economist at the top of the program specifically that bit about central banks Federal Reserve just for instance, and their role in the global economy critical is the short version of her answer, I it because central banks and their independence or under some pressure right now here in the United States as we have reported from President Trump directly and his top economic advisors. But elsewhere as well as some new research from Fitch Ratings out this week makes clear that pressure could come with some economic costs. Marketplace's Tracey Samuelson is on that one. When the economy slows it can be tempting for politicians to look for someone to blame. And the central Bank is obvious. Somebody berry can green at the university of California Berkeley says you can see this in countries like India Turkey Argentina what's new is that the United States has showing the crowd. The Federal Reserve is the world's most important central Bank. So James McCormack with Fitch Ratings says if it seen as coming under this kind of pressure peak spects other central banks to there's an increasing amount of commentary coming from political leaders directed toward central banks and encouraging them to adopt easier monetary policies lowering interest rates or even non-traditional ideas like allowing the fed to fund government spending by printing more money McCormack says countries face slowing growth and growing debt. The temptation is in will be to look to central banks for for at least part of the solution. And that would be to allow inflation to run a little bit higher. A little extra inflation may not sound. So scary says can Kutner and econ professor at Williams College, but it can easily get out of hand if the central Bank is under pressure in a couple of years prior to elections to get the economy's run faster. And then in the years after the election experiences a hangover. Then you can see how this is going to set in motion a boom bust cycle. Kutner says it's really risky to prioritize short term political goals over long-term economic stability. I'm Tracey Samuelson for marketplace. This item today from the marketplace desk of correlation is not causation, except maybe sometimes it is Bank of America said today, it's going to bump it's minimum wage for hourly workers starting may the first BFA they is gonna pay two dollars an hour. More seventeen bucks a twenty dollar an hour. Minimum wage in a couple of years, and there have been minimum wage increases elsewhere lately as well Amazon's at fifteen dollars, Costco, the same target just it's going to thirteen bucks. A couple more next year federal minimum wage, by the way, seven dollars twenty five cents an hour. Marketplace's Mitchell Hartman looked into what's going on here. And it comes with this three word hint. And therein lies the correlation. Causation thing. Here's the three words tight labor market. Here's Mitchell Bank of America is setting a high bar higher than leading. Big box retailers way, higher than the federal minimum wage Daniel Jau at jobsite glass door says Bank tellers are making six point two percent more than a year ago, Bank tellers are not just distributing cash or things that ATM could do banks are realizing that they actually do need tellers they need humans to interact with their customers. Ten years into the economic recovery. Says Nick bunker at indeed dot com competition for workers as fierce there's fewer and fewer unemployed workers and workers out of the labor force who'd want work, so employers need to increasingly bid up wages. Just check out. These annual increases in the glass door survey cashier up five and a half percent bartender like Mike Murray up thirteen and a half percent back in October two thousand seventeen I started out at twelve an hour plus tips by the middle of last year. I was at seventeen an hour. Plus tips Murray's thirty he poor. Drinks and manages a popular brew pub in the Seattle area. He graduated college into the great recession things have gotten better. There's more demand for skilled people who stay around. So that gives me a lot of leverage small businesses are on the losing end of that equation says and p trick at visted business advisory firm or hearing a lot of the ios saying they have challenges with even getting people to show up for the first day of employment. Employers can't afford seventeen or twenty an hour. They're offering perks tuition reimbursement or training to get workers to.

Tracey Samuelson Fitch Ratings Federal Reserve Kutner United States KAI Ryssdal Mike Murray Mitchell Bank of America Bank of America James McCormack IMF university of California Berke chief economist Trump Mitchell Hartman Costco President Seattle
"james mccormack" Discussed on 90.3 KAZU

90.3 KAZU

04:47 min | 2 years ago

"james mccormack" Discussed on 90.3 KAZU

"Tonight in the world, President Trump signal he wants homeland security to get even tougher on immigrants. What does that mean? A department created to focus on counter-terrorism last Cuban baseball place gets shut out of major league baseball. That's coming up at six o'clock. This is marketplace, I'm KAI Ryssdal. Let me do a quick call back to my interview with Gita Gopinath, the IMF chief economist at the top of the program specifically that bit about central banks, the Federal Reserve just for instance, and their role in the global economy critical is the short version of her answer. I asked it because central banks and their independence or under some pressure right now here in the United States as we have reported from President Trump directly and his top economic advisors. But elsewhere as well as some new research from Fitch Ratings out this week makes clear that pressure could come with some economic costs. Marketplace's Tracey Samuelson is on that one. When the economy slows it can be tempting for politicians to look for someone to blame. And the central Bank is obvious. Somebody berry I can green at the university of California Berkeley says you can see this in countries like India Turkey Argentina what's new is that the United States has showing the crowd. The Federal Reserve is the world's most important central Bank. So James McCormack with Fitch Ratings says if it seen coming under this kind of pressure. He expects other central banks full to there's an increasing amount of commentary coming from political leaders directed toward central banks and encouraging them to adopt easier monetary policies lowering interest rates or even non-traditional ideas like allowing the fed to fund government spending by printing. More money McCormack says countries face slowing growth and growing debt. The temptation is will be to look to central banks for for at least part of the solution. And that would be to allow inflation to run a little bit higher. A little extra inflation may not sound. So scary says Ken Kutner, an econ professor at Williams College, but it can easily get out of hand if the central Bank is under pressure in a couple of years prior to elections to get economies run faster. And then in the years after the election experiences, a hangover, then you can see how this is going to set in motion a. Boom bust cycle. Kutner says it's really risky to prioritize short term political goals over long-term economic stability. I'm Tracey Samuelson for marketplace. This item today from the marketplace desk of correlation is not causation, except maybe sometimes it is Bank of America said today, it's going to bump it's minimum wage for hourly workers starting may the first be of is going to pay two dollars an hour. More seventeen bucks a twenty dollar an hour. Minimum wage in a couple of years, then there have been minimum wage increases elsewhere lately as well Amazon's at fifteen dollars, Costco, the same target just announced it's going to thirteen bucks. A couple more next year federal minimum wage, by the way, seven dollars twenty five cents an hour. Marketplace's Mitchell Hartman looked into what's going on here. And it comes with this three word hint. And therein lies the correlation. Causation thing. Here's the three words tight labor market. Here's Mitchell Bank of America is setting a high bar higher than leading big box retailers way higher than the federal minimum. Mhm wage Daniel Jau at jobsite glass door says Bank tellers are making six point two percent more than a year ago. Ben tellers are not just distributing cash or things ATM could do banks are realizing that they actually do need tellers need humans to interact with their customers. Ten years into the economic recovery says Nick bunker at indeed dot com competition for workers as fierce there's fewer and fewer unemployed workers and workers, the labor force who'd want work. So employers are needed to increasingly bid up wages. Just check out. These annual increases in the glass door survey cashier up five and a half percent bartender like Mike Murray up thirteen and a half percent back in October two thousand seventeen nice started out at twelve an hour. Plus tips by the middle of last year. I was at seventeen an hour. Plus tips Murray's thirty he pours drinks and manages a popular brew pub in Seattle. Area. He graduated college into the great recession things have gotten better. There's more demand for skilled people who stay around. So that gives me a lot of leverage small businesses are on the losing end of that equation says N P trick at visted business advisory firm. We're hearing a lot of CEO saying they have challenges with even getting people to show up for the first day of employment employers that can't afford seventeen or twenty an hour. They're offering perks tuition reimbursement or training to.

Fitch Ratings Federal Reserve Tracey Samuelson President Trump Ken Kutner baseball United States Mike Murray KAI Ryssdal James McCormack Mitchell Bank of America Bank of America Gita Gopinath university of California Berke IMF Mitchell Hartman Costco Williams College
"james mccormack" Discussed on KQED Radio

KQED Radio

05:14 min | 2 years ago

"james mccormack" Discussed on KQED Radio

"Up to the Facebook catastrophe telling the story of tech venture capitalist and early mentor to Mark Zuckerberg who wakes up to the influence and implications. Facebook has on society available everywhere books are sold. Good afternoon. It's four sixteen. My name is Michelle Hennigan. Julie Deppish will be here with traffic update after market place. And then at four thirty on all things considered Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin today, testified about a house committee's request for President Trump's tax returns in details are coming up on all things considered in the first segment of the show. It starts at four thirty here on K Q easy. This is marketplace, I'm KAI Ryssdal. Let me do a quick call back to my interview with guitar goping. The IMF chief economist at the top of the program specifically that bit about central banks, the Federal Reserve just for instance, and their role in the global economy critical is the short version of her answer. I asked it because central banks and their independence or under some pressure right now here in the United States as we have reported from President Trump directly and his top economic advisors. But elsewhere as well as some new research from Fitch Ratings out this week makes clear that pressure could come with some economic costs. Marketplace's Tracey Samuelson is on that one. When the economy slows it can be tempting for politicians to look for someone to blame. And the central Bank is an obvious. Somebody berry I can green at the university of California Berkeley says you can see this in countries like India Turkey Argentina what's new is that the United States has showing the crowd. The Federal Reserve is the world's most important central Bank. So James McCormack with Fitch Ratings says if it seen as coming under this kind of pressure. He expects other central banks to there's an increasing amount of commentary coming from political leaders directed towards central banks and encouraging them to adopt easier monetary policies lowering interest rates or even non-traditional ideas like allowing the fed to fund government spending by printing more money. Mccormick says countries face slowing growth and growing debt. The temptation is will be to look to central banks for for at least part of the solution. And that would be to allow inflation to run a little bit higher. A little extra inflation may not sound. So scary says Ken Kutner, an econ professor at Williams College, but it can easily get out of hand if the central Bank is under pressure in a couple of years prior to elections to get the economy's run faster. And then in the years after the election experiences a hangover. Then you can see how this is going to set in motion a boom bust cycle. Kutner says it's really risky to prioritize short term political goals over long-term economic stability. I'm Tracey Samuelson for marketplace. This item today from the marketplace desk of correlation is not causation, except maybe sometimes it is Bank of America said today, it's going to bump it's minimum wage for hourly workers starting may the first BFA is gonna pay two dollars an hour. More seventeen bucks a twenty dollar an hour. Minimum wage in a couple of years, and there have been minimum wage increases elsewhere lately as well Amazon's at fifteen dollars, Costco, the same target just out it's going to thirteen bucks. Couple more next year federal minimum wage, by the way, seven dollars twenty five cents an hour. Marketplace's Mitchell Hartman looked into what's going on here. And it comes with this three word hand. And therein lies the correlation. Causation thing here's the three words tight labor market. Here's Mitchell Bank of America is setting a high bar higher than leading. Box retailers way, higher than the federal minimum wage Daniel Jau at jobsite glass door says Bank tellers are making six point two percent more than a year ago. Ben tellers are not just distributing cash or things that an ATM could do banks are realizing that they actually do need Tyler's need humans to interact with their customers. Ten years into the economic recovery says Nick bunker at indeed dot com competition for workers as fierce there's fewer and fewer unemployed workers workers, the labor force who'd want work. So employers are needing to increasingly bid up wages. Just check out. These annual increases in the glass door survey cashier up five and a half percent bartender lake Mike Murray up thirteen and a half percent back in October two thousand seventeen I started out at twelve an hour plus tips by the middle of last year. I was at seventeen an hour. Plus tips Murray's thirty he pours. Drinks and manages a popular brew pub in the Seattle area. He graduated college into the great recession things have gotten better. There's more demand for skilled people who stay around. So that gives me a lot of leverage small businesses are on the losing end of that equation says MP trick at visted business advisory firm or hearing a lot of the ios saying they have challenges with even getting people to show up for the first day of employment. Employers can't afford seventeen or twenty an hour. They're offering perks tuition reimbursement or training to get workers to stick around. I'm.

Fitch Ratings Federal Reserve Tracey Samuelson Facebook Ken Kutner President Trump United States Mike Murray Michelle Hennigan Mark Zuckerberg Julie Deppish KAI Ryssdal Mitchell Bank of America Bank of America Seattle James McCormack IMF university of California Berke
"james mccormack" Discussed on KCRW

KCRW

04:40 min | 2 years ago

"james mccormack" Discussed on KCRW

"Hopefully and getting the unknown debris out of the way. Appreciate it for sixteen. Now KCRW. This is marketplace, I'm KAI Ryssdal. Let me do a quick call back to my interview with Gita goping off the IMF chief economist at the top of the program specifically that bit about central banks, the Federal Reserve just for instance, and their role in the global economy critical is the short version of our answer. I asked it because central banks and their independence or under some pressure right now here in the United States as we have reported from President Trump directly and his top economic advisors. But elsewhere as well as some new research from Fitch Ratings out this week makes clear that pressure could come with some economic costs. Marketplace's Tracey Samuelson is on that one. When the economy slows it can be tempting for politicians to look for someone to blame. And the central Bank is an obvious. Somebody berry I can green at the university of California Berkeley says you can see this in countries like India Turkey Argentina what's new is that the United States has showing the crowd. The Federal Reserve is the world's most important central Bank. So James McCormack with Fitch Ratings says if it seen as coming under this kind of pressure expects other central banks will to there's an increasing amount of commentary coming from political leaders directed toward central banks and encouraging them to adopt easier monetary policies, aka lowering interest rates were even non-traditional ideas. Like allowing the fed to fund government spending by printing more money McCormack says countries face slowing growth and growing debt. The temptation is and will be to look to central banks for for at least part of the solution. And that would be to allow inflation to run a little bit higher. A little extra inflation may not sound. So scary says Ken Kutner, an econ professor at Williams College, but it can easily get out of hand. If the central Bank is under pressure in the couple of years prior to elections to get economies run faster. And then in the years after the election experiences, a hangover, then you can see how this is going to set in motion a boom bust cycle. Kutner says it's really risky to prioritize short term political goals over long-term economic stability. I'm Tracey Samuelson for marketplace. This item today from the marketplace desk of correlation is not causation, except maybe sometimes it is Bank of America said today, it's going to bump it's minimum wage for hourly workers starting may the first BFA is going to pay two dollars an hour. More seventeen bucks a twenty dollar an hour. Minimum wage in a couple of years, then there have been minimum wage increases elsewhere lately as well Amazon's at fifteen dollars, Costco, the same target just to it's going to thirteen bucks. A couple more next year federal minimum wage, by the way, seven dollars twenty five cents an hour. Marketplace's Mitchell Hartman looked into what's going on here. And it comes with this. Three word hint. And therein lies the correlation. Causation thing. Here's the three words tight labor market. Here's Mitchell Bank of America is setting a high bar higher than leading big box retailers way higher than the federal minimum wage Daniel Jau at jobsite glass door says Bank tellers are making six point two percent more than a year ago. Ben tellers are not just distributing cash or things ATM do banks are realizing that they actually do need tellers they need humans to interact with their customers. Ten years into the economic recovery. Says Nick bunker at indeed dot com competition for workers as fierce there's fewer and fewer unemployed workers and workers, the labor force who'd want work. So employers are needing to increasingly bid up wages. Just check out. These annual increases in the glass door survey cashier up five and a half percent bartender like Mike Murray up thirteen and a half. Percent back in October two thousand seventeen I started out at twelve an hour plus tips by the middle of last year. I was at seventeen an hour. Plus tips Murray's thirty he pours drinks and manages a popular brew pub in the Seattle area. He graduated college into the great recession things have gotten better. There's more demand for skilled people who stay around. So that gives me a lot of leverage small businesses are on the losing end of that equation says an Petric at visted business advisory firm. We're hearing a lot of the ios saying they have challenges with even getting people to show up for the first day of employment employers that can't afford seventeen or twenty an hour. They're offering perks tuition reimbursement or training to get workers to stick around..

Federal Reserve KAI Ryssdal Tracey Samuelson Fitch Ratings Ken Kutner Mike Murray United States James McCormack Mitchell Bank of America Bank of America IMF university of California Berke chief economist Gita Mitchell Hartman Costco Seattle
"james mccormack" Discussed on WNYC 93.9 FM

WNYC 93.9 FM

04:33 min | 2 years ago

"james mccormack" Discussed on WNYC 93.9 FM

"This is marketplace, I'm KAI Ryssdal. Let me do a quick call back to my interview with the chief economist at the top of the program specifically that bit about central banks, the Federal Reserve just for instance, and their role in the global economy critical is the short version of her answer. I asked it because central banks and their independence or under some pressure right now here in the United States as we have reported from President Trump directly and his top economic advisors. But elsewhere as well as some new research from Fitch Ratings out this week makes clear that pressure could come with some economic costs. Marketplace's Tracey Samuelson is on that one. When the economy slows it can be tempting for politicians to look for someone to blame. And the central Bank is an obvious. Somebody berry green at the university of California Berkeley says you can see this in countries like India Turkey Argentina what's new is that the United States has showing the crowd the Federal Reserve. Is the world's most important central Bank. So James McCormack with Fitch Ratings says if it seen as coming under this kind of pressure. He expects other central banks will to there's an increasing amount of commentary coming from political leaders directed toward central banks and encouraging them to adopt easier monetary policies, aka lowering interest rates were even non-traditional ideas. Like allowing the fed to fund government spending by printing more money McCormack says countries face slowing growth and growing debt. The temptation is will be to look to central banks for for at least part of the solution. And that would be to allow inflation to run a little bit higher. A little extra inflation may not sound. So scary says Ken Kutner, an econ professor at Williams College, but it can easily get out of hand if the central Bank is under pressure in a couple of years prior to elections to get the economy's run faster. And then in the years after the election experiences, a hangover, then you can see how this. Going to set in motion a boom bust cycle. Kutner says it's really risky to prioritize short term political goals over long-term economic stability. I'm Tracey Samuelson for marketplace. This item today from the marketplace desk of correlation is not causation, except maybe sometimes it is Bank of America said today, it's going to bump it's minimum wage for hourly workers starting may the first b as going to pay two dollars an hour. More seventeen bucks a twenty dollar an hour. Minimum wage in a couple of years, and there have been minimum wage increases elsewhere lately as well Amazon's at fifteen dollars, Costco, the same target just announced it's going to thirteen bucks. A couple more next year federal minimum wage, by the way, seven dollars twenty five cents an hour. Marketplace's Mitchell Hartman looked into what's going on here. And it comes with this three word hint. And therein lies the correlation. Causation thing. Here's the three words tight labor market. Here's Mitchell Bank of America is setting a high bar higher than leading big box retailers. Way higher than the federal minimum wage Daniel Jau at jobsite glass door says Bank tellers are making six point two percent more than a year ago van tellers are not just distributing cash or things ATM could do banks are realizing that they actually do need tellers need humans to interact with their customers. Ten years into the economic recovery says Nick bunker at indeed dot com competition for workers as fierce there's fewer and fewer unemployed workers and workers, the labor force who'd want work. So employers are needing to increasingly bid up wages. Just check out. These annual increases in the glass door survey cashier up five and a half percent bartender like Mike Murray up thirteen and a half percent back in October two thousand seventeen I started out at twelve an hour. Plus tips by the middle of last year seventeen an hour. Plus tips Murray's thirty he pours drinks and manner. Which is a popular brew pub in Seattle area. He graduated college into the great recession things have gotten better. There's more demand for skilled people who stay around. So that gives me a lot of leverage small businesses are on the losing end of that equation says N P trick at vista JR. Business advisory firm. We're hearing a lot of the ios saying they had challenges would have been getting people to show up for the first day of employment employers that can't afford seventeen or twenty an hour. They're offering perks tuition reimbursement or training to get workers to stick around. I'm.

Fitch Ratings Tracey Samuelson Federal Reserve Mike Murray Ken Kutner KAI Ryssdal United States James McCormack Mitchell Bank of America Bank of America chief economist university of California Berke Trump Mitchell Hartman Costco President Seattle
"james mccormack" Discussed on WAFS Biz 1190

WAFS Biz 1190

07:15 min | 2 years ago

"james mccormack" Discussed on WAFS Biz 1190

"Until the last moment before putting her deal to Paul TV. News says Ali Robbins, discussed the move in a by Brussels earlier this week. He's claimed to have sad. Theresa May would then forced door makers to choose between her delenda potentially lengthy Brexit while the Bank of England. Governor Mark Carney says the Brexit should be the acid test the global order and that the outcome of the split and show if it's possible to broaden the benefits of transparency enhancing accountability. That makes sense at all changed McCormack global head of sovereign and supranational ratings chips. Good seats very much. So let's start with the Brexit discussion growth has been pummeled in the back end of last year. And the outlook is not good. If there is a hard rags ish just fear would that be from a sovereign perspective. We downgraded the rating just after the referendum on negative outlook ever since I think one of the things that has actually improved. Maybe surprisingly, even though growth is being week is that you K public finances have been on an improving trend. So the net borrowing position of the government has has declined, and that's kind of measures that they use. So they're not under the same kind of fiscal pressure is other countries in in Europe. Or in fact, globally having said that if we're if we're looking at it, no deal Brexit, UK crashes out in Denver starting to think about a different kind of economic scenario cushion that they built up in terms of public finances could be quickly you wrote it. And I think that's one of the reasons why that cushion was built up in the first place is just for such a such a contingency. So that would be pressured on public finances potential on the rating. Gene was put on a hard Brexit for Fitch. Would I'm assuming it would be dying grade. And what I want to know from us. Attention dying on a hard Brexit. It's hard to say because I think this scenario will unfold sort of real time, and we'll look at what the economic consequences are is it a hard Brexit for a week. Or is it a heart breaks for a month or six months or a year? So I think we'd have to look at just how expedited negotiation or whatever kind of response from the European side. And from the UK side to resolve it would be if it's quick then maybe things kind of stabilized fairly quickly. If it's not deteriorate are we facing higher recession risk in the UK. What you heard from the back, basically? Yeah. I think so I think that's that's hard to avoid. If you look at the global where the global economy is people are starting to talk the US recession, you see weakness in Europe, quite pronounced weakness in in in the euro zone. I guess Germany, so hard Brexit could could push the UK into intercession. I don't think there's much doubt about that. Recession could come this year. Quite possibly. Yeah. We look back at previous episodes of disruption in the UK economy. You have to go back to the there was a strike in in the early nineteen ninety s that was quite disruptive for a short period of time. But the economic consequences were meaningful, and what about the currency sure did a car the proposition is this, isn't it? That currency would take the heavy lifting of some people say could drop by twenty percent do green without this that starting would do the heavy lifting on the on a hard Brexit scenario. You could say it already has right? I mean, that's where we've seen the adjustment in terms of the exchange rate after the Brexit referendum declined quite a bit. It's a free floating exchange rate. Right. The Bank coming was not going to intervene one way or the other. So to the extent money moves out of the UK. You will see an exchange rate response. Whether that's twenty percent. I have no idea. But that's where we would probably see the Justice. We've seen a lot of reach for you. That's the story that we're ready this morning, Spain, Italy bombed offerings. Concerned. Are you fight the growth trajectory the periphery of Europe in the first instance will come back to the core? Morzine decor? Coronate matters more because the girl's story in in Germany such as such as it is is quite concerning. Right. That's the country that's more exposed to China. So if you look at the China exposure in terms of GDP share of GDP. Germany's twice that of of the next closest country in the euro zone. So when you look at the recent numbers in Germany, and the trade the trade numbers globally. That's where you see more pressure not necessarily in the periphery. So we're seeing a little bit of divergence of growth, actually in Germany, Nicole doing worse than the periphery doing a little bit better relative. When you need it negative rates again on on the German car. What does that say to you? Yeah. We could be going back to negative rates world. Right. So it's in Germany. Quite possibly. I mean, I guess what? It says to me is that here we are possibly at the end of an economic cycle and monetary policy is never be normalized in in Europe. You still got policy rates that are less than zero right and ECB's just ended the asset purchase program, but we certainly haven't had a normalization of monetary policy Europe. Era, so financial conditions still very very loose. Never got into a normal kind of tightening cycle. Will they get? It'd be able to even get to zero this year. That's not our expectation that monetary policy stays fairly. I find a great chart this morning. I know our producer has this is on American. Dash. And the debt levels in the US. So the token public debt is twenty two twenty two trillion dollars. Yes. Deficit's trillion dollars. We don't seem to really curve very much about the debt level at the moment. When do we Alan Greenspan says politically budget deficits, don't really matter the consequences? He says we're not at Steinke flation yet. Twenty two trillion on public debt does that construct you in any way, I think when we look at debt we typically look at it as a share of GDP, right? So at twenty two trillion, and it's growing by around a trillion a year. Right, which is a big number. But when we look at the debt to GDP ratio because the US economy is growing, and because there is some inflation in in the US, the GDP number is also growing, so debt-to-gdp doesn't really move that much. So you find me the percentage, but but recession risk is the one thing we're debating the click of a coin in your models, are you showing any signs of the potential recession in the US not this year? No, I think talk of a recession later this year. We don't really subscribe to that Utah next year, it's entirely possible. I think the fiscal stimulus will fade towards the end of this year and into next year. And maybe there is a a global downshifting growth next year. But certainly not picture so no recession in the US and twenty twenty either possibly in twenty twenty. I said not twenty nine thousand nine. Okay. It's good to get clarity on these things. Jim. Thank you so much for running around the world with me this morning at milk and enjoy your at sessions here melting conference twenty nine hundred. James McCormack of sovereign risk and supernatural stupid super national ratings Fitch as opposed to supernatural. Yes. Well,.

Europe US UK Germany Recession Brexit James McCormack Fitch Governor Mark Carney Bank of England global head China Brussels Theresa Utah twenty twenty ECB
"james mccormack" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

03:05 min | 2 years ago

"james mccormack" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Economic optimism the feds J Paul George Loretta master, put on a United front all hailing the US economy as being in a good place. President Trump says the US and China are edging closer to a trade deal. And then he could let as much. I tariffs deadline slide if needed. Theresa May's Brexit aid is reported to have said she will wait until the last moment before putting to parliament foreseen employees to choose between plan for a potentially long delay. And the oil extends gains a Saudi Arabia pledges to deepen production cuts. The head of OPEC says other nations must follow the kingdom's example. AM across this is Bloomberg daybreak badly. Dean in Dubai. And I manage fanny at the looking institute summit right here in Abu Dhabi. We just had Mike Nova grass. We've had a deal broken from Investcorp with Abidine standard hive is the well look from the sovereign side. Coming up in fifteen minutes time, I'll be joined by the head of sovereign and supernational ratings at fix shades, James McCormack, Wigan, it's all US debt, and guess what? A hint of Brexit. Yes. Good morning. How you did? All well here, we've got energy markets on the move. Brent crude up for a second day to Saudis underscore, they're willing to deepen their cuts, and then you have signals from the US president that he could let that trade deadline slide or at least get delayed a little bit. That is helping worse appetite across the board with curly up. One percent. We just crossed into the sixties three handled four Brent crude, Goldman Sachs. In the meantime in the last couple of hours came out and double down on their bullish call on oil. They're saying that core. Opec producers are adopting a shock and awe strategy and exceeding their cut commitment. So they are still forecasting sixty seven fifty a barrel by the next quarter. That's taking on the wider market map. Get you some of the Asian equity action as it were the charge leading the pack in a broadly higher MCI Asia Pacific index. We've talked about some of the positive signals coming out of the United States a little bit of upset as well. Coming through in the Chinese CSI three hundred up about one point one percent. We've got some notable moves in the. Call him take a look at the New Zealand dollar. We up one point seven percent central banks surprising the market with. Well. The market was looking for a bit of a dovish tilt and did not come through also significant move for the AUSSIE dollar a confidence or reassured statement when it comes from one of the key communists from the Rb about the employment outlook, helping underscore that particular cross. All right. Let's check in on the first world headlines for you from around the world, get back out the Debra Debra..

United States OPEC President Trump Brent Theresa May J Paul George Loretta master Debra Debra Saudi Arabia Abu Dhabi James McCormack Goldman Sachs Bloomberg Dubai Mike Nova fanny China Dean president
"james mccormack" Discussed on P&L With Pimm Fox and Lisa Abramowicz

P&L With Pimm Fox and Lisa Abramowicz

06:11 min | 2 years ago

"james mccormack" Discussed on P&L With Pimm Fox and Lisa Abramowicz

"The government shutdown is entering its twenty first day without a resolution in sight. The question becomes at. What point does this gridlock? Imperil? The US is triple a rating joining us now James McCormack global head of sovereign debt at Fitch Ratings training us from London James. Thank you so much for being with us. Fitch Ratings has sounded a bit of an alarm saying that if this government shutdown does drag on much longer it will consider downgraded to the top rating that the US currently enjoys please explain yet. That's yeah. That's right. I guess there's a couple of things really come into focus really the longer. This goes on one is consistent with no we put out last week. We said, you know, this foreshadows or more pronounced destabilization policy making that would include the standoff over the debt limit which is really much more important than than the shot. Down. Then I think we'd have to be quite concerned about that. And and the second sort of parallel track where we're thinking about is that the policy-making framework matters so much in the US because there are some pretty big fiscal policy. Challenges ahead in addition to the debt limit so the fiscal deterioration that's underway with deficits in the order five and a half to six percent and the debt level where it is without at around one hundred percent the way we measure it without a resolution. Incite kind of sets the fiscal trajectory of the US on a slightly different path and what we would see in other AAA. So we do have to think about those context. Well, chairman Powell drum Palo of the Federal Reserve said at the economic club meeting that he's concerned about the level of the US debt. And that it is something that they have really no power over as a result. What do you think will will it take to get lawmakers to focus on it? Well, that's a very good question. Because lawmakers have not been focused on it for some time. This is a debt burden that has been creeping higher. Congress has not yet taken on the issues that need to be resolved and the primary issue the deficit continues to grow in addition to the tax cut that tax cuts. We've just seen is really on the mandatory spending side, and that is going to be a very difficult issue for for politicians to to embrace. But at some point down the line that does need to be addressed. If you look at Congressional Budget Office projections over the next ten years. It's very clear that there are two items two items on the spending side where things need to be things. Need to be addressed one is on the mandatory spending. And and the other is really interested. So both of those things rising very quickly to the interest burden. Can't do much about that unless the debt comes down but mandatory spending something can be done about that. But it's very very difficult politically to get agreement on that. James is there sort of a deadline for which the US has to come for come to a resolution for you to stop taking a look at the AAA rating. In other words, how long does this have to go on before you really do consider stripping the US of the top rating? Yeah. It's not so much about the shutdown. It's really more about the debt ceiling is you may you may know the debt ceiling comes back into force at the beginning of March. And then the treasury begins to us what it calls extraordinary measures at that point. So there's probably a couple of months before that really begins to buy when we last put took any rating action on the US was to put it on rating watch negative in that was back in two thousand thirteen when the when the period during which those extrordinary measures operate with coming to an end. And there was no resolution in sight, we were within forty eight hours of the so-called ex- date. And I think we would need to be a position similar to that before we thought about rating actions. So sometime down the road that I don't understand though, if these situations keep arising, and it does not appear that gridlock is going to ease anytime soon in Washington, why not downgrade the US now. Yeah. I mean, we kind of down this road before but not quite as per nounce. Then that's why were that's why we're talking about it now because we want to make sure that you know, market participants and other observers understand our position if were to take the rating action on the US, we want that to be as well flagged as possible. And so we are seeking about it now because it's an issue that we think the markets should be made aware of. But we're not in a position to suggest that this is definitively going to happen. So there's still plenty of time for congress, and and the White House to act to resolve both the shutdown and then subsequently to to address the debt limit. And if that happens as it has in the past then the AAA rating is is probably sound James. If you believe that a recession is coming in twenty nineteen would that change any of your ratings? I don't think so I mean the rating is supposed to be resilient. Through economic Saigo. We don't see a recession in fact in in twenty nineteen. We don't see a recession in twenty twenty either. We certainly see slowing growth, particularly as the fiscal stimulus begins to fade in twenty nineteen and we will have weaker growth towards the end of the year. And in twenty twenty we see growth only in around two percent in this year. We see it at sort of two point six percent. So definitely slowing of growth, but not a recession. And I don't think we would be wanting to suggest that the US rating was under under any kind of threat from from a normal economic cycle, including one that was inclusive of recession. Well, we're gonna leave it there. But thanks very much for being with James McCormack is global head of global sovereigns and supernational at Fitch Ratings. Speaking about the US sovereign debt rating the time when there's a bit of buying the treasury market right now. And

US Fitch Ratings James McCormack Congress global head Congressional Budget Office treasury Federal Reserve London Washington chairman Saigo White House six percent one hundred percent forty eight hours two percent ten years
"james mccormack" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

05:59 min | 2 years ago

"james mccormack" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"The government shutdown is entering its twenty first day without a resolution in sight. The question becomes at. What point does this gridlock? Imperil? The US is triple a rating joining us now James McCormack global head of sovereign debt at Fitch Ratings training us from London James. Thank you so much for being with us. Fitch Ratings has sounded a bit of an alarm saying that if this government shutdown does drag on much longer it will consider a downgraded to the top rating that the US currently enjoys please explain. Yeah. That's right. I guess there's a couple of things that really come into focus really the longer. This goes on one is conflicted. With a note we put out last week. We said, you know, this foreshadows or more pronounced destabilization of policy-making that would include the standoff over the debt limit, which is really much more important than than the shutdown. I think we'd have to be quite concerned about that. And and the second sort of parallel track. Whereas we're thinking about is that the policy-making framework matters so much in the US because there are some pretty big fiscal policy. Challenges ahead in addition to the debt limit so the fiscal deterioration that's underway with deficits in order five and a half to six percent and the debt level where it is without at around one hundred percent the way we measure it without a resolution in sight kind of sets the fiscal trajectory of the US on a slightly different path than what we would see in other AAA. So we do have to think about it knows context. Well. Chairman of Powell drum Palo the Federal Reserve said at the economic club meeting that he's concerned about the level of the US debt. And that it is something that they have really no power over as a result. What do you think will will it take to get lawmakers to focus on it? Well, that's a very good question. Because lawmakers have not been focused on it for some time. This is a debt burden that has been creeping higher. Congress has not yet taken on the issues that need to be resolved. And the primary issue why the deficit continues to grow in addition to the tax cut tax cuts. We've just seen is really on the mandatory spending side, and that is going to be a very difficult issue for for politicians to to embrace. But at some point. Down the line that doesn't need to be addressed. If you look at Congressional Budget Office projections over the next ten years. It's very clear that there are two items two items on the spending side where things need to be need to be addressed is on the mandatory spending. And and the other is really interested. So both of those things are rising very quickly to the interest burden. Can't do much about that unless the debt comes down but mandatory spending something can be done about that. But it's very very difficult politically to get agreement on that. So James is there sort of a deadline for which the US has to come for come to a resolution for you to stop taking a look at the AAA rating. In other words, how long does this have to go on before you really do consider stripping the US of the top rating? Yeah. It's not so much about the shutdown. It's really more of a debt ceiling, and as you may you may know the debt ceiling comes back into the beginning of March. And then the treasury begins to use what he calls extraordinary measures at that point. So there's probably a couple of months before that really begins to buy when we last put took any rating action on the US was to put it on rating watch negative and that was back in twenty thirteen when when the period during which extraordinary measures operate with coming to an end. And there was no resolution in sight, we within forty eight hours of the so-called ex- date. And I think we would need to be in a position similar to that before we thought about a rating action. So that in turn down the road one thing that I don't understand though, if these situations keep arising, and it does not appear that gridlock is going to ease anytime soon in Washington, why not downgrade the US now. Yeah. I mean, we kind of down this road before. But not quite as pronounced. And that's why we're that's why we're talking about it now because we want to make sure that you know market participants. In other observers understand our position if were to take the rating action on the US, we want that to be as well flagged as possible. And so we are seeking about it now because it's an issue that we think the markets should be made aware of. But we're not in a position to suggest that this is definitively going to happen. So there's still plenty of time for congress and the White House to act to resolve both feed the shutdown and then subsequently to to address the debt limit manufactured happens as it has in the past. Then the AAA rating is is is probably sound James. If you believe that a recession is coming in two thousand nineteen would that change any of your ratings? I don't think so I mean the rating is supposed to be resilient. True and economic cycle. We don't see a recession in fact in in twenty nineteen. We don't see a recession in in in twenty twenty either we certainly see slowing growth, particularly as the fiscal stimulus begins to fade in twenty nineteen. We will have weaker growth towards the end of the year. Two twenty twenty we see growth only in the in a ram two percent in this year. We see it it sort of two point six percents. So definitely a slowing of growth, but not a recession. And I don't think we would be wanting to suggest that the US rating was under under any kind of threat from out from a normal economic cycle, including one that was inclusive every recession we're gonna leave it there. But thanks very much for being with us. James McCormack is global head of global sovereigns and supernational at Fitch Ratings. Speaking about the US sovereign debt rating at a time when there's a bit of buying the treasury market right now, the thirty year trades at three point zero two percent up twenty seven thirty seconds the.

US Fitch Ratings James McCormack global head Congress Congressional Budget Office treasury Federal Reserve London Washington Chairman White House twenty seven thirty seconds one hundred percent forty eight hours zero two percent six percent thirty year two percent
"james mccormack" Discussed on Fantasy Focus Football

Fantasy Focus Football

03:51 min | 3 years ago

"james mccormack" Discussed on Fantasy Focus Football

"No, they don't. I don't have to. You haven't heard the phrase toothless about, like just not having. All the time in World War Two. It's okay. No big deal. Off what else we got. I do. I move on here. Awkward pause here. I don't think it's a weird phrase at all. Have no bite. Because there without teeth. I what else keep is it lady on bell related question here from coordinate the Mary Hampshire dot com according to merriam Webster dot com. So many examples of toothless in a sentence. Liverpool fans were impressed by Marshall's performance away at Brighton. As once again, the Manchester club looked toothless registering just three shots on target in the ninety minutes. Losing one. Oh, on the night. So there you go in the dictionary. That's example. It using some of us are brandy brains, you know, not all of us went online and got our college degrees at at Princeton dot com. Yeah, because that's where you do it. That's how you do it lady unveil related question from ATs manual, snap. Just that's what it says here. If you're a top team and the team with bell is fading in the standings, what sort of offer would you send try to take advantage of the win now urgency for your trade partner? So you have lady on bell. And you are in a good spot to acquire him. You can afford to stash him. Is the question right? So what sort of offering making? So I'm just gonna start to think around like if I could get lady on bell four and I don't know if you get this or not, but for example, I trade Jordan Howard for him. I think a number two running back or wide receiver for me. I was just going to say number two receiver. Yeah. That would be my preference. I'm leptin to give up running backs in this league, especially with the, we just don't know. We leave me about. Ultimately, that's the problem is you don't know. He could be sitting on your bench for multiple weeks if you trade for him, but somebody else could really need a receiver and you might be stacked because he repetition. I think it depends. Candidly, on the situation of the person that has lady on Belen the roster. Honestly, if I'm to an old lady on bell, I'm not trading if I'm Owen to then I'm right. So I mean that's part of it too, like, so you need to sort of look at the person that has lady unbalanced the roster and figure out what that person needs and why that person would have motivated to trade lay on bell. Like I have leaving on bell in the in the show league that we do not the show. I'm sorry, not the show league in the ESPN fantasy staff league that I play with in with both of you guys and you know care bell and Mike clay interest in and everyone. Right? Ken dobby, and I'm too and Owen that league. So I'm like, good. He. Yeah, yeah. So whatever eleven, Bill Levy on bell will come back even though Jim McCormack snake, James, Connor for me. That's all right. Fantasy karma. Got him because I still beat James McCormack even though he had James Connor against me and I didn't have lady on Belen week one what else? That's right. What What else. else hairs about your team? Don't you know that? What else? Keith, I just wanted to take the opportunity to call. Jim McCormack could work. Zach may wants to know, said Matthew earlier earlier mentioned that Josh Gordon's value potentially was peeking before even takes the field is with the same apply for Aaron Jones. No. And here's the reason why Mike McCarthy, the Packers coach said on Wednesday me chest, Aaron Jones is he's, he's the Third Reich. Then like the third running back. He's basically he's been more pleased with time on gummy and Jamaal Williams than those who roster them and fantasy football have been wanted to keep in mind that has always been a factor in Green Bay. And it's been discussed on this podcast and by many other fantasy analysts is that you know in running back play, you do have to cut it and.

bell Jordan Howard James Connor Jim McCormack Aaron Jones Princeton dot com Owen Belen James McCormack Liverpool Manchester James Mike McCarthy Keith Mary Hampshire Packers partner ESPN Zach
"james mccormack" Discussed on Buzz Burbank News and Comment

Buzz Burbank News and Comment

02:57 min | 3 years ago

"james mccormack" Discussed on Buzz Burbank News and Comment

"Burt Reynolds leads this week's passing passages. He was remembered extensively this week after passing at the age of eighty. Two also gone this week actor Bill Daley who played major Healey on I dream of Jeannie and Howard Borden on the Bob Newhart show as well as roles on Alf bewitched and the Mary Tyler Moore show Bill Daley, and Bob Newhart I met is young men working as pins centers at a bowling alley. Bill reportedly loved life right up to the age of ninety. One in stark contrast, rapper, MAC Miller, who's album blue slide park debuted at number one on billboard. He was just twenty six years old. His cause of death is unknown, but a friend had called nine one one saying, knock Miller, Malcolm James McCormack was in cardiac arrest before max death are 'Grande at tweeted that she prayed for his sobriety. Singer, John legend is among the latest artists to become a member of the elite club known as e got that's EG OT for EMMY Grammy Oscar and Tony. The few who win all four are known as e guts. The EMMY for legend, pushed him into that small club after winning TV statue for producing the Jesus Christ superstar concert for NBC composer Andrew Lloyd Webber and lyricist, Tim rice became God's in that same EMMY ceremony. This elite club also includes among others. Mel Brooks will be Goldberg, and Rita Moreno. From the horror franchise spawned by the conjuring the none is the top movie in the US and Canada this week. It scared up fifty four million dollars in its opening weekend the Meg after three weeks in the top two has finally fallen to four for all of the movies, previews, theater, showtimes, and tickets. Please click through my fandango, Lincoln buzz, Burbank dot com. The motion picture academy is now abandoning its plans to include a popular movie award for now. The Oscar folk panicking over dramatic drops in the ratings had announced a new category achievement in popular film. The reaction to the nouncement was loud and mixed. The academy was roundly criticized for selling out its quest for quality filmmaking in a transparent ploy to draw more and younger viewers, but they got him me says it also got significant positive feedback to and will revisit the idea. The producers of Black Panther say they are relieved. They didn't want to win a pop movie nomination when what they're really expecting is a best picture nod. A pirate looks at seventy two with Florida's legal marijuana industry on track a billion dollars. It only makes sense that bomb beach resident, Jimmy Buffett would launch a coral Reefer brand to do this joining forces with his Palm Beach neighbor. Bo, Wrigley of the Wrigley gum dynasty. A lot of Floridians are doing this one hundred sixty.

Bill Daley MAC Miller John legend Bob Newhart Burt Reynolds EMMY Wrigley Jimmy Buffett Grammy Oscar Malcolm James McCormack Mary Tyler Moore Mel Brooks Andrew Lloyd Webber Palm Beach Oscar NBC Alf Jeannie Rita Moreno marijuana
"james mccormack" Discussed on TechStuff

TechStuff

04:06 min | 3 years ago

"james mccormack" Discussed on TechStuff

"It was marketed it was marketed that these were totally up and up just detectors that have no that that you could in theory just turn these turn it on turn it on doesn't even make sense it was nothing to turn on right but you could you could just have these like sitting on a post for example and there's no one holding it and that it would work just as well heads insane 'cause the was that you know hey you got metal detectors sure l detectors are able to detect detect metal why can't you have a device like this that can detect bombs and stuff because they weren't they weren't going forward and saying like here's the the theory we have behind why it works they were just marketing it as a product that works so quantum he ends up doing this says it could detect all sorts of stuff like drugs and explosives the f b i ends up investigating him and finds that he'd been selling these for hundreds or thousands of dollars a pop and he and his business associates would eventually get charged with mail fraud but they all got acquitted in nineteen ninetyseven who don't know why but a jury acquitted them of all charges anyway some people in the uk heard about this and they ported over to the uk and they really ran with it and it was actually a group of folks possibly a ring like it might have been there might have been some elaborations like a crime ring kind of little cameron they're all running the same scam or it could literally be that one of them heard about the scam and thought this is a great way to make some extra dough sure one of them would be james mccormack no relation to joe no relation to joe james mccormick is the one i talked about in previous episodes of tech stuff and he was ultimately arrested in two thousand thirteen and sentenced to ten years in prison and also was was fined for the fact that he was selling these bomb devices largely in iraq and afghanistan and most of the the the rhetoric i've seen against him has been about we don't even know how many people lost their lives because they were dependent upon this technology that literally could not work there was no mechanism in it for it to work so it's not that they just don't work it's that there's no way they could have worked and you know this yunky were just putting these together in fact some of the ones he had were literally the gopher with a new sticker on it so this moves this guy away from the sorta sleazebag gradient of being a con artist of a snake o l cells into the completely reprehensible domain of being a war profiteer yeah yeah you could argue this bordering on what what we would casually refer to as being a sociopath because they have no he has no real consideration or care about what happens to the people who buy the product right his famous detector that was the one that was cited in most of the articles was the ad six five one so if you wanna look that up you can see what one of these looks like there are others who also were arrested around the same time gary bolton created a company called global technical limited this was a different one than mccormick's and he had the gt two hundred he was also arrested in two thousand thirteen he was sentenced to seven years in prison and samuel tree did the same thing in the uk and he was sentenced in two thousand fourteen to three and a half years in jail his wife got a sense of three hundred hours of community service so she was a lead off fairly easy compared to the others yeah now as recently as twenty sixteen there were still places that were using these devices i don't know if they're still are to this day but there were hotels in pakistan there were using these two supposedly check people for drugs or explosives before coming into to the hotel and you could again argue that this falls into that realm of security theater except this is a theatre where anyone who's paid attention knows that the the act is terrible right yeah i it would be like walking up to.

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