17 Burst results for "Jake Taylor"
"jake taylor" Discussed on Worst Firsts
"And i'm going to butcher this. But people can look this. Up is the guy who created a cure to like opioid epidemic for people that are heroin addicts that like the needles. Now that are to be made once you inject it. It goes inside and breaks. You can't use it again. So that lessens the spread of hiv aids and also helps end the opioid epidemic of people. Keep using these needles right. So he created this this needle that like once you use it. You can't use it again. And so he went and got it patented and this big pharmaceutical company went to him and was like oh my god. We wanna help you. We want to help end. The opioid epidemic. We wanna buy your patent we're gonna distribute it worldwide. And he was a user himself so he ended up getting coming clean. And you know this was a way that he like helped get over. It was bouza scientists as well and so he thought like oh my god. I'm doing such a good thing. They're going to buy it. And then they're gonna distribute it. They bought the patent from him and destroyed it and then he killed himself. He overdosed zoo. Killer himself because like they don't want you to get better. I mean then. I say this because i'm gonna anti-depressant been on it since i was sixteen. Okay i started when i first got put on it. I was put on it. Because i was cutting and i was really depressed when i was younger. And so they put me on. This antidepressant called effect sir. xlr k. i started taking it. I didn't really notice anything and then like slowly. I noticed that like less depressed. I wasn't as anxious that kind of thing. But i didn't really realize like what it was doing to my brain fast forward a couple years later i was like you know i want to try to get off of it. I wanna see how. I am now. Because i'm happy. I felt like. I wasn't happy. Because i was where i was in my life and the situation may environment so it was like i wanted to get off of it so it was like i. Scrap put on at sixteen at like twenty six. I try slowly weaned myself off of it. I was with worked with my psychiatrist. I took I did what was called a prozac bridge because this is one of the hardest antidepressants. Get off of basically your brain starts like zapping itself and then you get really dizzy. Throw up like all this stuff. It's like a. I've had friends that. Ron heroine that that were on also affects her and they said affects her. Withdrawal was worse than heroin Some weaning myself down. I'm using ten milligrams. Approach pose with it as i take the beads out to help balance so that my brain doesn't like you know. Get all weird. Because your brains used to receiving the serotonin right so finally after a year. Weaning down. I took a tire year to wind down. I got off of it right completely. Then i stopped taking the prozac within a week and then a week later is when i told you i couldn't walk straight. I couldn't leave my house. I was shaking all the time. And before i was on the antidepressant i wasn't shaking all the time. I had panic attacks. Like maybe like once or twice a month. But i wasn't having them everyday. I was having like fifteen panic attacks a day. No matter what. I ate when i drank when i moved. I was shaking a leaf and i call my doctor and i was like what is going on. He's like we'll give it two weeks. See what happens right two weeks later. Same thing. I was taking drill lake by the bucket loads just to calm my nerves because my fighter flight was so intense and i couldn't leave my house i didn't wanna i couldn't function and i was not like that before i got on and so i did an entire year off of this drug. Okay hoping that my brain would heal itself. You taking nothing just benadryl. For games learn to create its serotonin. Again it never got better. And i ended up like i said so. That was when i was doing my vines. And then i ended up becoming successful and vine and i had i had to go meet two meetings and meet people into shows and things like that. I was throwing up and like so. My anxiety was so bad. And i was never that way before you know. I went to school for years before without throwing up. And so i gave in and got back on and guess what the two weeks being back on it. Your phone make these drugs so that your stock. You know what i mean. They don't make them because they want you to be better forever. They want you to be better but also stock so there warm formulated so that it doesn't cure you. The you need it have to pay for it forever. Keep put money in big farmers pocket. What what would it be worth if you got better. If you didn't have to take that drug your whole life. You know. And i and i buy brand. So because for some reason the generic for me isn't as good it makes me sick brand is four hundred dollars a month because insurance doesn't cover it so getting that for me every month. What what would they do for the rest of their lives. that's all they care about. It's so corrupt it's crazy. They don't care about helmet healing you. You be like my grandma like. She suffers from dementia. She was it was just the start of it like we took her to the doctors and stuff and she had to start getting a like a lot. Different medications for and the medications have drastically like aged or age. Her like her dementia like she's literally was perfectly fine up Like like two months ago and are we see her like we have my mom. My uncle my sister her sister so we all do a month and take care of my grandma so we won't see her for like two months because she's with other family and then we see her and she looks like five years older like a hundred times worse than she was one of the medicines that she takes her super drowsy or she doesn't ball yet if she doesn't take this medicine and she has to take this one in the. It's just like it's killing her. Thanks shooting better not taking any. Yeah so they diagnosed her with dimension then put on the ads in jefferson now. She's getting worse. she wasn't even that bad. Yeah they the moment she got on. It went straight down his crazy. I just don't you know and it's really sad to me because all like you said it comes down to greed. And i don't know how those people sleep at night. I don't i really don't i mean the in their cushy mansions and you know they're so wealthy the people that are behind all the pharmaceuticals through some of the wealthiest people in the world. But they like they keep be sick. And i don't even know what has to happen for like it almost needs. We need like a modern day. Paul revere to come out. And you know and stop these big pharma's in all that you know. Because i i don't know what it's going to have to happen formulating drugs. That hurt people like everybody is banned in canada. It's banned in a lot of other countries because of what it does to you. You get stuck on it. And eventually i'm scared. They're going to ban it in the us. And then what. Am i going to go through the gnarliest withdrawal by life and never be normal again oxycontin with that had gift giving it to everyone for basically free in the beginning and then they slowly just stop the now. People were trying to get paid for it and that help drug addicts became the opioid epidemic insane. I mean it's all insane to be honest like it's like you know it's crazy just the the way the world is all you can do is just be careful like i tell all my listeners. People who are depressed and there haven't ever been on an antidepressant. I'm like do everything. Try everything you can before you get on one and then like the gentle ones are prozac and like alexa pro. Like those are the probably the most gentle ones.
"jake taylor" Discussed on Worst Firsts
"The i truly feel like the government has too much power like you know. Like i was just seeing something recently about like nancy. Pelosi buying all these stocks and stuff before like for a year in advance and stuff like obviously it's like insider trading martha stewart went to jail for like. Yeah people know we she. She bought a bunch of tesla. Because of biden's going to his electric vehicle thing that he just bought it for two thousand twenty three out of five hundred dollars point like is that nine hundred dollars now so she's not she's already understanding that it's gonna either drop or it's going to split again. She she bought it that it was gonna go up. Yeah i don't know what she either way. It doesn't make sense like that. They're like they just have too much power especially inside. And that's what's gonna cause eventually the civil wars that these people are. Because i i want to vote but i'm not going to be the only one you know. I mean. look at all those people that went to the capitol building. That was way too easy. Yeah spiracy theories about how they were just basically led in writing. Is the people mainly come on. The whole thing was really weird. Shit going on guys. And i feel like it's just gonna keep getting weirder and i mean especially like with cova coming out and then like you know there's a new every five minutes. There's a south african strain. There's a new strain in london. That's like way more contagious. I mean it's just gonna be like the yellow miami open everyone's clubbing. i honestly. this is be the biggest conspiracy theory. But what if we leave the united states in the world's normal and we've just been like putting this bubble and thinking that kobe exist now there is covert another. I did see that in australia. They had no covid. I get some but they the first one who did like the real lockdown and then They had no cases but then it started coming back. They really just got to stop people from travelling. That'd be like the best clothes all the travel for like two months. They just shut down the world for two weeks. Because we're the worst here in california because just leaves to go party had no one listens and i mean also just an america no unless it's relaxed my rights right my guns thing like i know so many people that literally will just fly to miami party then. Fly back to california. They're probably bring in the virus or they'll go to talulah mexico you know and like i have so many people they don't like they say that in la you have to quarantine for ten days when no one's actually doing it. Because i know friends who go straight from mexico to here and they're out walking the streets. It's such a shame. Like i have a friend who literally sends me video every night of him at like a raider fan l. a. still a house party with like hundreds of people know masks on and just bump and i'm like why are you there. And he's like i don't i'm immune and i'm like okay. Yeah it's crazy. I mean who knows what to believe. I mean i truly do believe that covid created as you know biological warfare like it was created to be something and it probably wasn't even finished and it just accidentally got out so there was working that it was patent then patented. Yeah like there's you can look it up at corona virus patent like and you can only patent something that's manmade. So why is there. A patent on on the corona virus. So fuck you can look it up. Because it's public information my brain candy handle it will go into a spiral of. We're just getting into like such a conspiracy. Is those changed my podcasts. I conspiracy theory when he but it's almost like when do you draw the line between it being against spiracy theory and it being real like it's like do you know there's just so much we don't know i'm definitely scared for the upcoming months because i just feel like you know. People are getting smarter and the government is just being more blatantly. Obvious with things in you know i it just disappears like bat like yeah was going to be pissed because look how much money everyone is lost and not made in the old. Did you hear about those apps called parlor there's parlor in there is another app signal parlor. Was this app. That was like unbiased. Like anything goes on there like you can make your own and you can just talk about whatever you want. People follow it in stuff so like it's unbiased by like tv or anything like that and they showed it down like biden. Shut down our on. Our someone did right when they like. The inauguration happened so like the aps off line. You can't even use it anymore. So they're just like weird stuff like that makes on. They're talking about real stuff. Yeah yeah there. I heard a lot of stuff about like censorship. Like when they. I mean like there was a lot of censorship stuff about freedom of speech in that. Were having their freedom of speech because like if you were to talk about covert or something and say something. Fake like they would pop up on a second like this fact truth. That happens all the time. So it's like they're taking away our freedom of speech by not allowing us to say what we want. So i guess that app. This allows you to save whenever you want. It doesn't block anything and like so. They took it down. Apple took it off like they're so my dot my doctors in tarzana. And he's a really good doctor and he has had over a hundred patients with cove. Ed he's treated all of them and none of them have died and he came up with like the perfect combination of things to treat them and he posted it on facebook and he got banned from facebook. He was like attention other doctors like. This is what i've been using for my patients. All all of his patients are elderly on my youngest patient and he hasn't lost one person to covert and he had come up with this perfect combination of different things and he posted it on facebook to tell their doctors and they banned him from well. That's something similar to i. Don't know if you ever heard of a nipsy. Russell is actually making a documentary about him. But his name is dr celebi. I've heard of that guy. So he was this guy who was really genius man and he believed in you know Traditional like traditional medicine but like real herbs and stuff like that to heal you and such and he was always a big believer insane like never eat cauliflower because it's manmade if it's not ali flowers green doesn't come from like the earth like it's white which means they made it in like they man made the seeds which then grow from there. Obviously but it's not really a real thing. Anyways he found the cure to hiv right. He published that he found the cure. Hiv in the new york times and the government came ensued sued him because he was putting false information out there and he was like it's not false information. He brought all the people that he cured of. Hiv into the court won the case that he actually did Cure it a couple of weeks later and debt. Once they found out that he actually knew The cure and that he could save people and the nipsy russell was doing a them and then he ended up dead dead. Big pharma is the scariest so because they wanna keep people sec for cancer out there that they won't tell people make farmer wants to keep people sick. I mean there was also that that that story of this guy. And i'm going to butcher this. But people can look this. Up is the guy who created a cure to like opioid epidemic for people that are heroin addicts that like the.
"jake taylor" Discussed on Invested: The Rule #1 Podcast
"Debt but what nor that for now so you know these five things that i can. I can make a prediction about each of those five things in a probabilistic way. I can say I think there is a seventy five percent chance. That apple will have ten percent higher revenue in one year from now and i tend to make these on an annual basis and and then so step. One is making a probabilistic prediction. Step two is actually scoring that. Prediction was i right or not right. And so if i have a very high probability estimate and it turns out. I'm right that gives you the highest score in this. It's called brier score at based on glenn bryer. Who invented this. If i give a very high probability and i'm wrong. That gives me the worst score right. Because that's like you thought you knew what you're doing and you don't now in between those where you have low probabilities and it turns out right or wrong. That's not really worth a lot because you didn't really have much confidence of what you were saying right. So so what the trick is and this is why. This is such a good hack. Is that for every one ric data point of returns. Which is what. I get in a given here right like would apple stock do in this case i get five data points on these five key drivers that tell me. Do i know what i'm doing or not right. So if i'm if i'm wrong on all five of my predictions and yet the stock went up. I know that that was probably done luck right and then i should. I should probably not think that. I know what i'm doing quite as much like this is if you don't do this and you only looked at what it what the return was. You're setting yourself up for the big loss later because you think you know what you're doing and you get overconfident. You're measuring yourself. Only based on the market as opposed to be more shall we say reality based scrapyard. That is this exactly and we can get more data points on in a faster time period to see. Do we have luck versus skill. A true so we can conversely. Let's say that you you got five out of five predictions were right. You had high confidence in the stock went down. Well you should then realize oh man. That was kind of just bad luck. I know what i'm doing. I'm getting the right drivers and making the right predictions. I just didn't get the result that i want and but if i keep going i know that eventually luck tends to iron out and i think i should end up with a good result. I have some skill here and it's not just purely luck So i think that's especially early on as you're learning and tracking How you're developing. I think it's hugely important to do these type of exercises and it's a way to compare yourself to yourself which is the the we're looking for. Yeah and you can. you don't even have to. You don't even have to make an investment in it to track your predictions on it and like you could make predictions about different companies. Even if you don't own them to see. Do i have any luck or skill or do i have any you'll really in this in this game And it doesn't act-actually half the cost you. Anything tends to be better if you actually have a little skin in the game That makes it feel a little more real right as opposed to paper trading but Being able to get those data points sooner i think is hugely valuable. Let's leave it there. I love it. Jake taylor thank you so much. For being on the podcast. Thanks for sharing your years and years of work experience to develop these framework and these thoughts around process of investing. Really appreciate that you're bringing this out and And thanks for sharing it with me. I'm using it. it's fantastic. Well my pleasure daniel. Thanks for having me on and letting me Carry on about a topic. That i'm passionate about you and me. Both you guys go. Follow jake on youtube at five. Good questions jake. Where else can people find you. I i spend too much time on twitter at Handles farnum jake one and then yet check out the value after hours podcasts. That's a little. That's a couple of my my friends who are just tremendous and super smart Bill brewster earn until carlisle And we just once a week we get together and talk for an hour or and record it. Basically and not. Just sort of whatever's happening And then the book is good street if you want to book that out a lot of different things to a lot of ways to explore. If you're interested all right thanks so much and thanks everybody. Bye guys thanks for listening to invest it. If you enjoyed this episode you want more information or to listen to additional episodes. Visit our website at best podcast dot com and sign up for my virtual workshop. Right there spots are definitely limited for this event. I'm not kidding. They really are. They sell out very quickly. Everything discuss on this podcast by the way is either my opinion or it's daniels opinion and really important. It's not to be taken as investment advice. Because i am not your financial advisor nor have i considered your personal situation as your fight. Do -ciary remember. You're on your own here this podcasts for your entertainment and education only and i really hope you enjoyed it..
"jake taylor" Discussed on Invested: The Rule #1 Podcast
"Matrix. Is that related there with mental the external and mental quadrant No i mean. I would call that more internal mental like i know like i wanna know if the filters that i have in my head and i'm using or helping you're hurting me and so like for me. A very common one is Let's say like leverage too much debt. The company i'm i am conservatively wired in such a way that like i'm very hesitant to take on a company that has a lot of leverage. I can't tell you for certain whether that helps or hurts my results yet. Like i don't have enough. Data built up in that in that that usage case. Eventually i will though. Because i'm keeping track of that and eventually be able to tell you as an entire reference class highly levered companies that i rejected helped me get better results. Or maybe the converse. And it's just as likely i'm not sure actually hurt my results like i was being too conservative and i. I don't know the answer to that yet but it. I think it's every single reason why you would reject a company should be put to the test of whether it actually helped or hurt you over the long term and then therefore make adjustments after that like. That's how you learn. Yeah that's the only way to learn the only way to make intelligent adjustments. Otherwise we're doing based on what we feel what we remember so tell me then about signal versus noises as the external plus mental quadrant. Well that's that's really you know. How do you spend your time like know. What are you allowing to blast your senses. Swith right and it's very easy to you know i. I like to think about as sort of food related and you know going on an information diet And not not eating too much of the junk food which you kind of know and you're eating junk food right But it feels good right and it's it's it's interesting and maybe it's a little controversial but it's not gonna help you create a better investment process and i think if you were really diligent You would actually keep track of your time and how you spend it in the investment process. Like how much time did i spend reading. Sec filings versus. How much time did i spend cruising twitter for you. Know an investment someone else's thesis on it So external and mental is the stuff coming in the twitter the social media all the way down to the sec filings. All the information that comes from the outside about what you're looking at and then the internal versus mental is really the structure in the process. The go through to analyze that information would that be fair right. Yeah how you manipulate all of that information. Really all of that data to create information that you then act on so i think then that brings us to the physical and the external which is the environment that you have for your investing process and this is a hugely fascinating area for me because i find my environment so influential that when i first started learning about investing new new had never met. You never heard about any of this. That was the very first thing that i thought about. What kind of environment do. I need to even be able to start this project. How do you what do you look for. How is your own. Investing environment set up. Yeah i think this is very idiosyncratic to everyone. You have your own individual environment that is probably optimized for you and i would encourage you know just like health stuff to be self experimenter in this this field trying things out seeing how it feels you feel sharp. Do you feel distracted so for me. And this was much easier. Pre work from home and doing home schooling with kids Which has really impacted a lot of my ability to do like sustained long-term deep work on home interesting. Yeah i feel opposite anyway. Well no my office is is very quiet. And it's i'm surrounded by but berkshire and warren buffett paraphernalia and for me that is just this constant reminder of what would buffet be working on right. Now what would he think is important. What would What would he be telling me that. I should do at this just this juncture and trying to have that sort of conversation with one of your heroes. Even though he's not there if you read enough about someone you probably have a pretty good idea what he'd be telling you at this point so i tried to like. I can't hide from warren right. He's he's always around one of those actually like you know like become fat headline posters like the life-size posters. Okay so i have one of those. But it's tough it's head and it's like it's probably two feet by two feet and it's up on the wall and he's he's staring at me all day. No you do not have sure jake. That's that's another level. You have a giant poster of buffets head and you have it so that his eyes are staring right at you. It's not so intense directly at me but he's he's watching watching he's watching. That's what i was just gonna go. Is he benevolently watching you or is he sort of a nanny schoolmaster type of way. What depends on. If i've been a naughty boy or nine could go either way co either way. What else is in your investing environment So i'd also like to have a lot of books around partly for reference material. If something that i want to like look up again real quick. I know the book is and And i just like being around books. Such just like my little sickness that i have The smell of a paper book. Yeah i i can't get into the reader at this point i've tried and there's just something for me about like physically writing in the margin alia of a book it just sticks better into my mind so i i I hate it. Because i feel like god. I'm trashing the environment by buying so many books and you can have it on an ear reader and it's you know but to me it's just not the same experience but i couldn't agree more. I'm also trying to get into it. Because i don't live in the. Us i live in a non english speaking country. The best easiest way for me to get english books is online. And it's amazing that i can just press a button and get a book but that means most of my books. Now are on my kindle and it's just not it doesn't pull me in the same way and it's actually something i truly struggle with and have been thinking about in my investing practice because there are many investing books that i just haven't really gotten to because they don't pull me in the same way i think there's something to be said about the medium and how it will how how much like gravity it has in kind of penetrating into your brain and for me the reader you know kendall doesn't have the same penetration as a physical book. I totally agree. I don't know why i don't know why either. But i completely agree. And there's something about being able to write in the book an underlying it that highlighting with my little pen on the screen just doesn't fulfill in the same way.
"jake taylor" Discussed on Invested: The Rule #1 Podcast
"Jake taylor if you missed the first half of our interview go back and listen to the one from last week because it introduces all of the stuff that we're about to talk about. Jake taylor is the ceo of farnam street investments. He's the host of the popular show value after hours. He's also the host of a series called five good questions which is a great author interview series. He is also an author himself so many also. But that's how things work in life. He wrote the rebel alligator which is a fantastic book. We've talked about it. A ton on this podcast. If you haven't ready at go read it and he lives in folsom california jake. Thanks for coming back on. Thanks for having me back daniel so we are just going to jump right into it and what we're talking about here is your paradigm of investment hygiene. Which is another way of thinking about investing practice investing process how we as investors can set up our space. Our environment ourselves to make better investing decisions every time. Really right. that's right. I think that's you just hit on a really key point as that. Having a repeatable process is hugely important. One just because it's most likely to produce good results but to like any good scientific study you need to have controlled in the environment. Control variables And test like you know one thing at a time. Otherwise you don't know why something changed or not so. Having a repeatable process allows us to be much more scientific in our approach to to improving and understanding how our process is helping or hurting us. Yeah absolutely and i think as we were saying at the end of the last episode data is the key to that. Data's the way that we can really find out if we have been improving or not because our subjective experiences usually that we're fantastic. Everything and cruelly. The only thing that screwed up was some external factor. So i've been thinking about this one. In in kind of different contexts. Lately and supposedly eighteen percent of of the universe is at the mass of the universe is visible and the other eighty two percent is probably like dark matter or dark energy. So there's this entire part of the universe that we can't even really see and i think that that same proportion may exist for what you might call like the dark matter of your investment process. There are all these data that we could be capturing about ourselves that we don't at the moment because it's kind of a pain and it may be it's hard to figure out So instance let's say that you you reject you don't want to buy a company and you reject it okay great. Do you keep track of how that went on to do like how you know. What was the opportunity cost of you not buying that most. Don't do that. I torture myself constantly. I would say that you're in the minority doing that Now do this daniel. Do you do you code the reason why you rejected that company. I have never written it down. But i know why i remember why at least i think i remember why so. Maybe i'm wrong about that. So that's i think are filtering process. How do we decide what becomes goes into our portfolio or not can be dramatically improved and informed by track ing y. We rejected something. So we don't you know you can calibrate your filtering. Based on looking at the things he rejected a why. And how did that go on to do. So let's talk about like a practical example. Warren buffett famously. Has this this basket on his desk. That says too hard. And it's like that's the too hard pile right. You put things in here there too hard all right so we're going through and we're looking at best man ideas when we go. Oh man this is complicated. This is too hard. I'm gonna put it my heart pile good for me. I'm like warren buffett right okay. that's that's fine. And i think knowing your circle of competence is obviously very important. However when you're just starting out especially how do you know if you're being like a little bit too lazy about putting things in the too hard pile and what if you were. You could see that boy. Everything i put in my to pile has done really well. Maybe i need to dig just a little bit deeper under the surface and add some more things into my circle of competence and my results might dramatically improve. We don't know that about are. We don't know what the cost of our filtering is unless we actually keep track of it. Yeah absolutely and that's actually exactly my experience. I think of particularly. I was talking recently about Missing out on amazon was like you know such a classic thing to say and the other one is. I've talked a lot about is missing lululemon which i was so close to and i just had really just started learning about investing and i just wasn't confident enough in my own decisions and i think looking back. That was actually probably the right choice. Ace from a learning perspective from a like was. I really able to make good decisions. I don't really know probably not you know but that companies done insanely well and i was right and my reasons were good and so it's one that tortures me. So if i and i do have notes on on that one and why. I liked it and everything. So yeah i don't know. I often debate if mistakes of omission are really mistakes or if they're just good learning opportunities. That's torture you like chinese water torture drip drip drip on your head. They condemn torture you. I think one of the problems is that like anything with human experience. The bigger and louder the data point the more that it sticks out in our mind is something like amazon. Where it's gone up. You know whatever hundred x may be from when you looked at it. yeah that hurts and like that is like big ringing data point that says god. I really messed up in this classification of widen i invest in that you know whatever. The criteria was that rare criteria. Were that you use to reject it why you do that. Well how let's look at all of the bases. All of the data points of why he rejected for that specific reason and actually survey that entire data set. Because there's probably a bunch of things in there maybe that went two zero that you're not even keeping track of that That you know you have to know what that entire portfolio did and how what that looks like. As opposed to the one big data point that sticks out in your mind. That's not a good way. Probably for us to assess just sort of like anecdotal remembering like man. I bought this one right. Like you're going to skew you're going to skew. What history actually happened if you only use anecdotal data that sticks in your head. I think that's exactly right. We notice the ones that are giant loud misses and we don't even remember the ones that have steadily faded away into the night and if we probably bought all of those we would be doing really badly portfolios. That's exactly right and it's very hard to know that unless you actually keep track of it. Is that what you call signal versus noise.
"jake taylor" Discussed on WIBC 93.1FM
"In 1961 that Roger Maris hit the home run to break Babe Ruth's single season home run record. Here's the wind up, and there's a really good movie called 61 that breaks down that case. Billy Crystal directed it. Good movie. I wait. I've got another. I've got another connection here for you. To Babe Ruth 88 years ago today in 1932, with account of two balls and two strikes, Babe Ruth. Called his shot and pointed to centerfield bleachers at Wrigley Field over your cubs six degrees of separation, baby, it all comes together. So what happened was that is that more legend than eyes that more urban legend than reality? I think it is, he pointed. I've heard some historians say that Babe Ruth, who Has been known to trash talk with some fans may have been pointing to some fans out there saying, you know, hey, this that he may have pointed for a home run. He did hit the home run came, but it's not like it was Jake Taylor projected in major league standing at home plate, pointing one finger out to the bleachers. One of our favorites Randy Quaid, 70 years old today, cousin Eddie From the vacation movies, and he's a crazy follow on social media. Remember when it was the 2016 election, and Randy Quaid was talking about Hillary Clinton's email scandal. My gun is out for the damn say late Bernie must disembowel first tag, You.
"jake taylor" Discussed on Xtra Sports Radio 1300 AM
"So I was thinking John christened Ski for Ah, Tom Barrett, his character for Jake Taylor. I was thinking, Jon Hamm. Handing a middle aged guy great actor Very versatile. Yeah, he's Ah, He's a very woodsy Amid some comedies, he can be funny s O. I would say Jon Hamm. I like that about How about Sam Rockwell is Roger Dorn. Let's go on. Sam Rockwell is Roger Dorn. I have Ah Scarlett Johansson as Rachel Phelps. Scarlett Johansson. Okay, What about Ah, for the wild thing. What about Adam Driver? You need you need. You need that, like I feel like you need a young bad boy. I was thinking, maybe like like Jared Leto. Okay, uh, I have John David Washington as Willie Mays, Hayes. I like that. So we're getting somewhere with the re casting of major league if you want to join in on that conversation 855 to 124227 Do you have any other ones? Who else do we? Do? We have any more. I've Ah, Pedro. Yeah, I didn't get to that one yet. Pedro Cerrano. Pedro will. It's gonna be a big guy, obviously. But we'll have to do some more research for we're getting started because I'm sure that you know they remake everything anyway. So why wouldn't they remake Major league? Once the Indians changed their name again? This is all in good fun because I know that that the recent history that franchise isn't what it was when that that movie was originally made, But, you know, given the Times are changing a little bit. Thought we'd we'd mix in a fun topic. While we're having the seriousness gush in about some of these team names and what you think they should be. I mean, I think the easy one for the Indians is the tribe to me. The Cleveland tribe seems to do everything that they would want to do with the original name while making a simple shift that that isn't Too hard to adapt, too, But I want to get your thoughts. The Washington football team definitely going to change its name. It seems like the Cleveland Indians are going to follow suit. 855 to 124227855 to 124227 at Robin Lundberg on Twitter. That's R O b I n l U N D E b E R G I'll remind you today at 12 30 Eastern 9 30 Pacific The Utah Royals are back on the pitch and.
"jake taylor" Discussed on Newsradio 830 WCCO
"Side dishes not rice necessarily here but about beans refried beans you know big time which comedian said he likes refried beans and wants to try a fried beans to see if they're just as good and we're just wasting time was at Mitch Hedberg there ya go all right there I know Mexico which member of the Cleveland Indians in the movie major league could I got back into the majors when he was speaking to clue Heywood who asked why I was back in the majors he told clue Heywood quote could cut the Mexican league this how is it it's not J. Taylor is it I'm gonna give them to you right well Jake Taylor is it really you go back up there but it's not as you want my kids so good so good I want a couple more here yeah let's go let's try this on this now and this is a Mexican pastry made with masa stuffed with meat cheese other fillings its name means chubby in Spanish no because that is a gore deduct that is easy I assume that was something that Taco Bell just made up but no it's a real thing that's kinda what I thought too and in fact my body in high school he he got up hugged his legs sophomore junior year of high school named amber details that's outstanding one more question how many pinatas did the infamous el Guapo have for his birthday celebration in the classic comedy three Amigos twenty ten Yaris yes I'll give you multiple choice was it innumerable pinatas in abundance of pinion has a plethora of bananas for a multitude of pinions I'm going to liberation plethora opinion is what you pay I would just say I have a plethora of yeah this is what well yes you have a brother well known it's been a long time since I've seen that movie but I was just I would not have done it without the the the multiple choice so that's one of the classic line who's okay who are the three Amigos it's Steve Martin Martin short and Chevy and.
"jake taylor" Discussed on We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast
"For having me guys all right guys so this show. We play Chris from the audience. And this question's very timely. It's from Nathan and Christian is about berkshire-hathaway high presidents take. My question is about Berkshire Hathaway in stock. It owns in his portfolio. Berkshire already owns a specific stock in its portfolio. How do you think about considering a by more than individually taking into account the fact that you already have some exposure to the stock through charts for Photo Nathan thing? That's a great question. I don't think that there are any issues. But you getting a bit more exposure to any of the stocks in buffets portfolio. Because when you do the math you have very little exposure to almost all stocks in his portfolio. Keep in mind. The Buffett's stock portfolio is less than half of the value of books. How the win the first place? They have a lot of operating companies to none even apple. You have two months exposure to now is the biggest position in Berkshire hathaway portfolio which is more than ten percent of the market cap off Berkshire hathaway in the first place and is almost a third of the entire public trade portfolio. But even so consider if you have ten percent Berkshire and then ten percent of that are made up of apple she s you still only have one percent exposure in your portfolio to apple. Now Bill is a little more. It might be closer to one point. Five one point seven in this example if you have ten percent in Berkshire hathaway but any case. It is very little. So even for buffets portfolio that is very top heavy and just an example if you look away from the top ten holdings the eleventh biggest holding is just a bit more than one percent above its entire public trade portfolio. So it's really not significant. It's really my way of saying that you shouldn't think of Buffett's stock picks at all whenever you consider your own portfolio unless you only hold berkshire-hathaway in your portfolio or very close to only hold on that one stock but where do think that. You should pay attention. Is THAT BUFFET. Like all the money. Managers with more than one hundred million dollars on the mennesman has to disclose with surprise the buy stocks. And that may give you good indication of with stocks that are currently undervalued. You can find those prices and those picks at guerrillas for free and we even have a resource Academy where can check out of its picks together with all the super invest us like spear Mona's pop rai and take a closer look at their portfolio. We'll make sure to linked both of those resources in the show notes and then four times a year. The stock picks become available. It's February fifteen may fifteen August fifteen and November fifteen. That doesn't mean that I'll do the same thing as they do but I do. Use Office picks and other supermassive specs ask inspiration and perhaps put a few on them on mental. What's List for further investigation? So Nathan great question. But I really can't add much value beyond Stig's response because I pretty much agree with exactly what he said. So with that Nathan for asking such a great question we're going to give you free access to our intrinsic value course for anyone wanting the checkout the course go to t I P intrinsic value dot com that's T- IP INTRINSIC VALUE DOT com. The course also comes with access to our T. I. P. Finance tool which helps you find and filter. Undervalued stock picks if anyone else wants to get a question played on the show go to ask the investors DOT com. And you can record your question there. If it gets played on the show you get a bunch of free invaluable stuff. All right guys knows all the press down. I had for this week's episode of the PODCAST. We see till again next week. Thank you for listening to ti to access our show notes causes or forums go to the investors. Podcast don't come. This show is for entertainment purposes only before making any decisions. Consult a professional. This show is copyrighted by the investors. Podcast NETWORK. Written permission must be granted before syndication forecasting..
"jake taylor" Discussed on We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast
"Well I think their different ways of doing it. I tend to be more on the simplistic side of my investment stuff. Like if I can't write it on the back of an envelope or on a short piece of paper and a few sentences then it's probably too complicated for me to take a swing at so for Berkshire. The first passed a look at it. And this will sound a little bit Glib because the answer is going to be kind of silly but if you imagine Berkshire as a bond that yielded ten percent and I think that's a reasonable actual approximation because their return on equity has been ten percent for quite a while and it's likely to be around ten percent for a long time just based on the projects that they're putting money into thinking specifically regulatory yield of NSF and be h energy. So if you imagine a bond that yielded ten percent and you could reinvest the coupons in the business at a continuing ten percent. What would you pay for that bond? Today how much would the market pay for bond? That yielded ten percent in my mind. Safer than Treasury's Today's rates right now. I mean it's like approaching it goes towards infinity right. I mean that's why I said this is sort of like the Glib answer. It's a ridiculously high number. Which I think is more a reflection of today's rates being in my mind kind of ridiculous and not so much a reflection of Berkshire so let's go to a more real answer than some of the parts is away a very popular way of analyzing Berkshire which is basically. Just take all the different little business lines. Add them up and come up with some kind of a number so my back of the envelope. Math for some of the parts is yeah. Let's call energy worth about fifty billion the railroad worth about one hundred billion the. Ms Are the manufacturing service retail is calling one hundred fifty billion insurance call at a thirty billion and then an investment or folio. Three hundred seventy billion ish. You add all those up and you totals up to about seven hundred billion which implies about two hundred eighty dollars per share for the B shares. Quite a bit north of where we are right now so another way of looking at it the business would be. Let's just do a simple? What has Berkshire typically traded around as far as price to book goes into the answer. There is roughly. Let's call it one point. Seven five times price-to-book-value. Today's book value. Let's call it. Four hundred twenty five billion that gets us to a seven hundred and forty billion dollar range of potential valuation. Okay that's in the Ballpark of r sum of the parts. That makes sense. All of these things are all just triangulation. Data points like anyone is not better than the other but if there are all kinds of telling you the same story then maybe you're onto something that's how I think about this. And then maybe the last one would be called like a two pronged approach. And that's basically like add up all of the investments and then try to put some multiple on the actual earning businesses and then add those together. And what does that number tell you in my rough calculations? Let's call it. Two hundred sixty billion for Equity Securities and other one hundred thirty billion for cash. That gives us a three hundred. Ninety billion dollar for Prong One and impromptu will take twenty four billion dollars of operating earnings and multiply that by ten that gives us two hundred forty billion. Add those two numbers together and you end up with six hundred thirty billion as another mark so all of them. In the seven hundred ish billion dollar valuation range so just to recap that. You're saying that the price of the BCS that's right now trading around one hundred ninety five we'll looking at around two hundred and eighty plus minus very interesting. Thank you for breaking that down for us. It is interesting what you would mention there about the potential discount because it is a conglomerate. I guess you would even have. People say that is actually the competitive advantage offer that is a conglomerate to the money would go where it's best used. I guess there's also a discount to Berkshire hathaway because it has not been performing as well. He'll the pastor. Yes it's actually been trading this p five hundred. I think that's probably also one of the reasons why whenever I talk about being good price and all that and I think most listeners were already know I am long. Berkshire Hathaway Cynthia take it for what it is whenever I'm complimenting Jag about why that's a great investment I am obviously biased and it kind of leads me into the next question which is something that which is about position sizing but it's just always such a interesting topic to discuss especially for company like Berkshire Hathaway many investors have different rules from cells when it comes to assisting sizing for example invest might have ruled that he or she won't bill position in a single stock would more than ten percent of their portfolio now. Warren Buffett is previously in his letters to shareholders commented on how many investors holding to how the way as their biggest position in the portfolio most notable himself with more than ninety nine percent of his net worth estimated that more than ninety percent of the shareholders has books. Halloway ask by far the biggest position. Please elaborate on how you see position sizing and if Berkshire Hathaway is an exception to the rules that we may have imposed ourselves giving that is such a diversified company already and may have the downside protection that you mentioned before it very much comes down to your own personal preferences at risk tolerance of how much exposure you're willing to take on any one facet of business or economy or anyone person so the first thing you have to ask yourself is about the opportunity cost. Do you have anything else that might do better than a relatively safe. Call at ten percent or Anam type of return profile if you do then Burke Shire may be sort of an anchor in your portfolio and maybe you don't want too much of it. I don't think that Berkshire is terrible. As a bond proxy maybe especially for someone who's a little bit younger relative to the prices of bonds today? So how much are you willing to do you want as a bond allocation for? Shire may fit the bill of that a little bit like we just talked about you know if it was a ten percent on a lot of portfolio managers who I've talked to and respect. They often will use Berkshire as a cache proxy so if they don't have anything else to invest in rather than whole cash they'll just stick it in Berkshire. I don't think that's a terrible strategy. However the whole point of cash that it doesn't move around at all and Berkshire definitely moves around. I mean in one thousand nine hundred eighty eight or was trading at three times price to book value. Right and typically. It's been one point seven but we've seen a below book value also so to think that it's just this like solid anchor that never moves around provides the liquidity that you want when you need it and I'm not so sure about that. The last thing I would say is that because it is so. Us centric it could form a bit of a home country bias. That is common for a lot of shareholders. People tend to own more whatever country that they live in because they feel like they know it better and if so if you are a US investor and you already own a lot of other US based securities and things that are tied to the US economy then being long Berkshire is just more of that same thing and so you may not have as much diversification geographically speaking when you may end up suffering even stronger to a home country bias but all in all I mean. It's pretty hard to imagine that. Berkshire in Penn. Twenty years is not worth more than five hundred billion dollars so if you have the stomach for long term. You could sleep comfortably at night. Earning probably a ten percent. Roughly return on equity over a long period of time and there are definitely scarier and harder ways of making money. I think you bring up a really interesting point and a good point so jake thank you for your thoughts about burkes. Halloway is always a pleasure to hear how people think about that business that we've been following since the very first episodes here and the masters podcast now. Speaking of that I wanted to end the interview on the slightly more abstract note. Because not only are you a great investor self you also one of the thought leaders in the value investing community or like to relate this to whenever I first started become interested in value investing. I think my motivation was like any other. I wanted to replicate if possible. Howard Buffett pick stocks and that was why.
"jake taylor" Discussed on We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast
"High integrity decentralized to the point of abdication as Munger said capital Allocation Stock Selection Insurance underwriting king abandoned opportunities all these things are in the ethos of the company. I personally believe that there will generally be okay. It's hard to imagine that there isn't some impact so if I kind of go through each of the businesses like the insurance operations I think those don't change a ton thick. They've got plenty of brainpower with G to still manage that part I know. Buffet helps jeep but deal flow. I think absolutely has to be impacted. How many business founders sell their business for less than they could probably get somewhere else to sell to buffet specifically that I think is a very real advantage that he's built as a way of cashing in on his reputational capital that he's built over the last fifty years of doing business the right way. He deserves to pay less than market because he has done such a good job with his reputation. I also think the performance of any CEOS in the subsidiaries of all these different companies. It could go down. I mean when you are having to send a letter to Warren Buffett about your operations for that year and report to local Warren. Like how you did and you WANNA make him proud. He's not around. It could slip a little bit. I mean I think that's just sort of natural human nature. I think the portfolio management side of things will be just fine with Ted and todd. I think both those guys are really sharp but target imagine it. There isn't less remote host worn and Charlie just mostly probably because of the deal flow aspects. They have to get in line and pay. Whatever else is paying for acquisitions? You're just not going to get the same kind of deals and therefore the same kind of returns on the businesses that you're buying because you're probably GONNA have to pay a little bit higher price for everything so on net. It won't be as good but the ethos still makes it one of the better companies in the world as far as how clean they are and how they do business. Suject rule simply. What's the biggest threat to Berkshire Hathaway or opinion? I would probably say complacency and that can come in different ways. I think that this management team. That's been around since nineteen sixty five deserves the benefit of the doubt on all things they've earned it however is a shareholder you can get complacent about when things start slipping a little bit for instance picking the book value out of the report. It's a little bit of changing the goalposts somewhat. I mean the timing of when he's done it and there've been a few other changes. I won't go into them because they're they're down in the weeds for most investors. But if you want to read a deep dive on that I would suggest checking out semper. Augusta's letter I don't know if you've ever read that one. But Chris Bloom Strand I think is one of the best analysts on the planet and he does a call it. A fifty page write up of Berkshire every year. He's a true true expert at this company. But anyway I think he's highlighted some of the places where they will change a little bit of things in reporting or move parts of the business and it'll be a little bit less clear how that business did or what the returns on equity were for that segment of the business mostly in the name of trying to make the numbers easier for the average person to understand but for the very very deep dive analyst. It clouds some of what we used to be able to know about the company so those little things can slip here and there that the disclosures part of things because the management has earned such a reputation. You can get complacent about just assuming that they're always doing the right thing all the time and that can get you into a dangerous place. Let's take a quick break and hear from today sponsor brought to you by capital one. You know how it feels when you've saved enough for that long awaited home edition now. Imagine saving enough for an addition on that addition. That's the feeling with capital one. Where new savings account earns five times? The national average capital one is helping you earn more towards your savings goals. This is banking reimagined. What's in your Wallet Capital One? Na member FDIC USPS shipping rich are increasing so now is the time to save the central online from Pitney bowes starting at just four ninety nine a month with central online from Pitney Bowes is just clicking send you save up to four percent off. Usps or two male and for being the investment podcast listener. You receive a free thirty day trial to get started and free ten pound scale to ensure that you never overpay you can now print shipping labels and stamps right from your computer schedule package. 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So if you imagine these companies that are owned by Berkshire inside of Berkshire but they're publicly traded companies and they're doing their own business they're generating their own cash flows and sometimes they're paying dividends to Berkshire and so last year there. Ten largest holdings in their securities portfolio delivered three point eight billion dollars in dividends. They got sent to Omaha. Checks that showed up in the Berkshire checking account while those companies had another eight point. Three billion dollars in retained earnings last year. So that's money that's created inside of the companies that they own but that Berkshire doesn't really have control over it. It's still within the company and when I say that eight point three billion dollars that's figured out by taking the percentage that Berkshire owns of the company and then applying that percentage to what the total amount was so just to make the math easier. Like let's say that. Let's say ten percent of Apple. An apple earned one hundred billion. Will inside of that you could imagine that Berkshire Kinda earn ten billion through their ownership of Apple. I think you can't assign a dollar for dollar valuation to those earnings is that it could very likely be that company. That is making the decisions on that dollar. Where does it go to could be making bad cap allocation decisions and even making that dollar worth zero like we've seen that before with companies that make stupid choices with the money that's generated? It does not accrue as shareholder value. It ends up disappearing so the first kind of metric that we have to look at is. What do they do with the money? And I think buffets obviously trying to choose companies that have the ability to invest in projects that will generate further returns on capital. And keep this engine running and even growing and so you start to see why he's such a big fan of buybacks is because that instead of that dollar inside of that portfolio company going off into maybe a project that is destroying value. Maybe it gets bought back now. And His share of the company now increases. Obviously the price paid matters for that as well. So if they're overpaying for their buybacks than they are destroying value for the remaining shareholders including Berkshire and then the other part that. I think you should think about there. Is that money stays within apple or wells Fargo or wherever it is that Berkshire owns berkshires. Not Having to pay taxes on it at the moment so there's already call it a fifteen to twenty percent. Maybe even twenty one savings by not sending that money to Berkshire to them control. So there's no easy answer there because it's very fluid on like what do they end up doing with the money that determines the future value of what that retained earning was worth but those are some of the parameters that I think about I look at the retained earnings inside of the portfolio companies. You know it's fascinating. This is a topic that Buffett has been talking about a lot lately. I think this is a great accounting discussion. And it's something that many young investors don't understand. I Know Stig and I have talked about look through earnings for the non operational subsidiaries numerous times on the show and it's really neat to see him bringing up more more and. I think it's important because there's a lot of value there. That's not immediately evident if you're simply looking at the income statement the consolidated income statement for Berkshire Hathaway Okay so with all of that said talk to us about your intrinsic value for Berkshire hathaway.
"jake taylor" Discussed on We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast
"The Florida's you mentioned before stands one hundred twenty nine billion dollars. How do you see Burke Chef perform when it comes to macchia and profitability in the next day Kate specifically for the Insurance Division? I do recognize that. They are very disciplined in their underwriting. And the data point that I use to back that up as that. They've underwritten profitably in sixteen of the last seventeen years. That's a pretty good track record. If you know the insurance industry I found it very interesting that it seems like Geico's been the little slow to adopt telematics which things like snapshot that progressive has which is basically trying to figure out like. How much risk do you actually take while you're driving? Are you speeding or are you accelerating or slamming on your brakes all the time which is surprising to me given? Geico's history Of targeting originally government employees. That's the GE part of GE ICO so they were looking for operations that had lower risk profiles and one way of ascertaining that would be to keep track of how people actually drive and then base their insurance rates on this telematics idea but in the plus side of the category for them is that they've always had such a bulletproof balance sheet that they've been able to underwrite that no one else would really be able to take on. They've always operated at like one less deal than they could've been doing all along or one less big insurance underwriting thing and other companies even insurance industry I've seen their operating much closer to the full deals that they could do or even sometimes taking on leverage to do one more deal than they could've done and then they're always kind of digesting that deal so what it allows Berkshire to do is to use a lot of that float and invested into equities which earned quite a bit more than what most people were earning in their floats all the other insurance companies because they've stayed so far away from the edge of being bold deal maximize irs and full underwriting capabilities so they're conservative. Nature in a paradoxical way has allowed them to actually take more risk with their float. Better security portfolio. I've noticed the thing too about underwriting with prophet sixteen seventeen years and buffet has been very upfront by saying that he does not expect that to continue happening and you can put a lot of different things into not comment. Obviously wanted us that. Buffet always likes to play. Whatever he's saying. I mean giving the low interest red level. You would expect for this to continue at least for quite some time. The reason why I'm saying that as given the low interest rate you supposed to underwrite with the Prophet because the risk return you can get elsewhere. A lot of that goes into equity due to different regulations on all that can be put into equities. There was this matching principle so depending on the length of the claim You have to buy even long bonds which might seem a bit weird. These states interest rate. But that's just the way it is. It's not something we can do too much about. I'm sure buffet would if he could. But unfortunately that's not the case but the other thing that I found really interesting about how buffet has been addressing. The insurance business is also that concern shareholder Hussein with global warming with everything. That's been going on. What can we expect in terms of claims to Berkshire and he says you know most of these things by definition of renewed so like he can set new premiums and what he's saying is as much as it might seem bad one year. A lot of things happening from an insurance perspective. He's actually a good thing. Because the premiums would just go up and the mole uncertainty though are the better ensure because so many companies have to have insurance now Jig. Let's talk about the growing cast pile. It has been heavily debated for years among the shareholders off burks Halloway and today cast and chiltern investments are one hundred twenty eight billion dollars whenever I say. Today don't mean today much nine after the stock market has been tumbling for weeks. Now I mean that's the latest filing that have cast pile similar to what it was in Q. Three Twenty nineteen so as far as we know it's not growing but it stagnated at very high level. Well you know. I woke up this morning. And the market was down five percent plus and we had circuit breakers going so on days like today. You kind of have to love that cash pile right. I mean it's the optionality on it is growing with every tick down. I love the anti fragility of that cash pile when you combine that with Warren Buffett's cap allocation skills. He's proven that he can put up. Great numbers especially when the opportunities come along. I should say the only thing that I don't like about it is that it makes me a little bit sad that it's possible that he could be waiting for this one last chance to do some big deals that. Sorta cement his legacy. I've seen this before where grandparents are holding on to see that oldest kid graduate from college or something and then once it happens then they kind of let go a little bit and it'd be sad to think that longer that we can delay a crash and him putting money to work. Maybe the more time we get with him. I would be a little bit sad if he was able to bag that last elephant and now he's like I've done everything I need to do in this lifetime and I'm ready to move on but people typically do is look at decisive his portfolio and the thing here the year end it was around two hundred and forty odd billion dollars and then the look at the cast position and say wow he is a lot in cash that's not how buffet looks at it. He said actually just two weeks ago. I'm approximately twin percent cash right now and I'm that because I'm including the three hundred plus billion dollars in upbringing businesses plus we have multiple secure. It is and then we have cash if you do. The numbers is a different way of looking at it. He's looking had eight. Percent Equity is twenty percent cash. Who knows perhaps with everything that's been happening? He's not so much in passing anymore and the real ties into my next Christian. Warren Buffett kicked his stock buyback procam into high gear. Here lately spending two point two billion dollars on share purchase in the last three months of two thousand nineteen. And that's the most ever. He's done in a single quarter now. This is not significant. Pets the my cup of more than five hundred billion dollars and a lot of investors. See this estimate tunes. It's loading up on shares. It should also be noted here that the trading volume berkshire-hathaway is exceptionally low. So in that sense of buybacks yeahs. Buffet is restricted differently than other. Ceo's if he wants to repurchase a high numbers yes because he's so easily moves surprise he's been talking about how he look within the at the Osa who could buy back three four five percent without moving price but because of the volume of Berkshire hathaway she asked that is just Solo. He's been talking about or at least he's been hinting. He doesn't talk too much about it but he's been hinting of. Just one percent can actually move the needle in terms of influencing the price. But as much as we'll talk about later. What do you read into the stock buyback here? Siphon the obvious fact that buffet at times have found the shares modestly undervalued as. He puts his in his letter a lot of people. I talked to like to think that this buyback program puts a floor under the Stock. And he's talked before about in the one point two to one point three times book value ranges aware. Berkshire will kind of quote unquote defend the Stock Price. But not sure if I think that that's true or not. I think Mr Market can do a lot of crazy. Things in that can still apply to Berkshire. They'd spent five billion dollars over the last year to buy back one percent of the company. Roughly so that's in like two hundred dollars. A share for the B shares on the other side is selling. That's something that I always like to ask myself. And when it comes to Berkshire shares most of them are locked up in families who own the company. It's not the typical company that's owned by institutions or even like index funds. It's very under represented in indexes. Because of that so. I don't think that you may be get as much panic. Selling either there so maybe it's unlikely to go on crazy sale as much as other companies. I think I personally think that he would be better off looking for that next deal than buying out partners within. Berkshire itself and I don't think that there's a lot of willing sellers that will part with their shares at the prices. That are really mouth watering from a buyback perspective. It's just not the dynamics that I see in the company ownership structure. I think you bring up a good point because if you look at the ownership manual what he wants to do the least is to repurchase yash he wants to buy wonderful businesses and even before that he wants to build a widen the mortar round the assistant businesses. You wants to buy gas and other companies before he wants to buy out his own partners as he puts it is interesting especially at these prices ride now at the time of courting bricks hell awaits trading at one hundred ninety five and it would be interesting to see how much he loads up on his own. Yes in Q. Four if you look at the numbers the average spying price just for that quarter was two hundred fifteen so it might be well he would be buying back then but keep in mind that s the price of Berkshire hathaway's now trading much more appealing prices. So as more or less all the stocks on the planet you bring up a good point good. Cap Allocation is thinking of your shareholders as your business partners. And if you're buying back from them at breezy low prices you're benefiting one group of your shareholders at the expense of another and you're neglecting your duty as a captain of industry and as an allocated capital and a steward of capitalism by taking advantage of one party over another. I think you almost have a moral duty to try to keep your stock price. Trading close to the intrinsic value so that If some partner of Yours Aka shareholder needs liquidity for something. Perhaps they have to pay for a surgery. Or there's a charitable thing that there's really important to them that they need the liquidity. You should do what you can to help them. Get the liquidity that they need to run their lives. I think that there's a lot of good that can be done. The no one really talks about in capitalism by a CEO who keeps one shareholder group from taking advantage of the other too much. So that's really interesting. So buffet has mentioned in his letter to shareholders that ninety eight percent of his shareholders going into the year are the same shareholders. Going out at the end of the year and I think it's kind of an interesting metric because it shows you how strong his share by can be if he decided to use his significant cash position to conduct the buybacks. So something else I want to ask you about. Jake is your opinions on Warren. And Charlie's age There are many people that will argue that they're the true competitive advantage or at least significant portion of of the Companies Competitive Advantage. But as we all know Warren is going to be ninety. Charlie's ninety five ninety six years old. So what are your thoughts about the company with them eventually? Going TO BE REPLACED. Yeah I mean you really kind of have to get comfortable with answering. The question is Berkshire a man or is Berkshire a culture or is Berkshire and ethos or even maybe like an operating system for a business super.
"jake taylor" Discussed on We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast
"Your stock selection process and how has or hasn't been influenced by Warren Buffett and Talamante her. My investment process is kind of difficult to explain because it tends to be just looking for things that makes sense to me and that there's no real morningstar style box that you can check. That says you know buying things that make sense to me so I ended up being very opportunistic and going into a lot of different places whether it's just buying outright cheap assets when they're available like a net net all the way up to hang up a little bit more for a good company that has good cap allocation and along runway to redeploy capital at essentially high return. So obviously buffet early on was very quantitative based investor and off only very cheap things and for most of my career. I've been more that way and it's only until recently that I felt a little bit more comfortable paying up for a good culture. And what am I thinking is evolved in that is one. I think you have to read a lot and been in the game for quite a while to have the trust in yourself that you can recognize those kinds of opportunities. The other problem is that it's very difficult to get to that point in this particular market for me because it seems like that's kind of whatever one is realizing recently compounders have become very popular and for good reason it makes business and investing sense is just the price is. I feel like maybe have gotten the little out in front of what might project into good returns for a lot of these businesses so while I recognize it I've been pretty slowed actually implemented because the price I felt like hasn't quite been there yet. Another interesting thing I've been thinking about lately on that Front. Is Everyone's looking for companies that have really high returns on invested capital and? I've been wondering if perhaps that you might be better off looking for ones. That are more moderate. Maybe like the ten to fifteen percent range. My thinking of that is that few have extraordinarily high returns on capital that is a signal that other entrepreneurs may WanNa come and compete those away from you and or at least share in some of that high return maybe at the ten percent range your side of flying under the radar and you're able to compound for a really long time at ten percent as opposed to a short period of time. Let's say fifty percent and the better bet is to take the longer duration ten percent one most likely so it's Kinda like I've heard Peter. Thiel talk about how companies who are actually monopolies. They don't advertise it. They're trying to hide it. Google will talk about how they're only a certain percentage of the entire advertising industry. They won't frame it as online advertising or search even worse right so in the same vein maybe the editor bet is to look for more mid range kind of Roi. See and see what you can find there. As opposed to like the highest flyer ones so jake on February twenty-second buffet sent out his annual shareholder letter. And I'm just curious what your key takeaways. Where from the letters this year? I thought it was interesting that he removed the Book Value Column. For the first time. Which kind of tells you how much value maybe as a metric for Berkshire has decayed in buffets mine. He's been talking about it for a while but he finally stopped reporting on that. I mean you just look at that. Market value though from nineteen sixty five to twenty nineteen at twenty point three percent return versus the SMP's ten percent and it's like it's such an amazing testament to doing something right for a really long time and the just the obscene compounding that can take place. It's just truly incredible to actually see it. Spelled out look at the float number nineteen seventy thirty nine million dollars today. Hundred Twenty nine billion dollars absolutely unreal. How Big Berkshire has got? And then my last one was interesting to see him. Say That g chain and Greg able will be more involved in the meeting this year which I think gives some hints about succession. Planning and I thought it was actually a little bit odd that todd and Ted wouldn't be included as much. He didn't mention them. At least so those were my takeaways from this year's letter but in general I would have probably given it an average rating other ones. I've liked more but anytime you can hear what's on buffets mind is worth taking a few minutes to Rita for someone like you have been reading all his letters. It is interesting to see how especially the last safe ten letters. I think he's giving away less and less. I guess that's how I look at it. They're still good lessons to learn but it seems like he's a different mode. It seems like he's a bit more in legacy mode than he is in the. Let me educate you about business mode. But it's definitely worth a read and we'll make sure she'll linked to that later in the show notes but jake. Could you talk to us about Berkshire Hathaway and no? We're going to talk about the evaluation the end. So we'll get to that but talk to us about berkshire-hathaway how would you outline the for someone who is not too familiar with the company in my mind? It's a supercharged S. and P. Five hundred it's very. Us centric Bat. They insurance operations are way above average the industry and then you have somewhat doing cap allocation. That's the greatest of all time. And typically you're buying it for less than the markets typical price due to some kind of a conglomerate discount so in my mind. It's not a bad plug in or an S. and P. five hundred exposure. If you wanted that instead could you talk to us about the five major segments of the business? Sure Yeah I mean you have the insurance operations which are big you have a railroad inside of their Burlington northern you have Berkshire hathaway energy. Which is we used to be mid American and now is growing quite a bit. They put a lot of money to work in both energy and railroads and earned that interesting ten percent regulatory return. Likely we're talking about return on capital and then you have a marketable securities portfolio of a lot of blue chip companies. That are baked inside of there. Then you have what's called the MSN. Which is the manufacturing service and retail and those are a bunch of grab bag of different businesses. Some bigger some smaller all the way down from precision cast parts which is making high tech aircraft manufacturing all the way down to shakes and Burgers at dairy queen. And everything in between so you have the whole swath of the US economy..
"jake taylor" Discussed on Invested: The Rule #1 Podcast
"You haven't done the homework yet, you are not in a position yet where you have a list of ten companies that you know, inside and out your very confident about. You're not there and you need to get there. And the good news is there's still time to get there. Because even if the market started crashing tomorrow, you wouldn't be a buyer for another six months or year. It's going to take for things to really work their way down to where you can buy them. But you've gotta get ready and take this time to get ready. This is now think wise buffets because he's already yeti. He knows. Trees encyclopedia. Yeah. You and I'm Dan. Yeah. I've got some. But you guys have none. And you need to get a stack of these on your wishlist, and you need to do that. Now. In fact, that's what we need to be talking about more. And Moore's stacking up the wishlist, I really think we should. And I think we should talk about some of the things that you could use for checklist for that straight idea. So we'll talk about wishlist and checklist. We've got Jake Taylor coming on in a couple of weeks. You guys get his book rebel allocators and read it before our interview because we're gonna talk about it. As though you have read the book, and we've got some other really cool interviews coming up. And. Yeah, exciting stuff on the invested podcast. I'm not going to say what they are yet until we recorded. Fair enough fair enough. But we do have we seizing couple of authors that are coming that are really really amazing that are going to help you as an investor..
"jake taylor" Discussed on Stick to Football
"Oh how much did major league sample from that movie you think wild thing nuke culture i don't know yeah there are a lot of similarities i guess there's not the groupie kinda they just added willie mays hayes and that was a great character though and then rich third baseman or whatever i up third baseman maybe they exist in the same universe ooh maybe maybe jake taylor finally like came back and made the majors oh i like that so kevin costner was jake taylor oh yeah see i like to think the alvin mack from the program his son is vantera from drafty no i'm with you on that one that you mentioned it before we did like top five fictional characters on me was but yeah to make sense okay you've taken boulder amount tang this is getting harder okay i'm gonna go a little out there are you keeping track of how many movies you've said three ongoing this'll be my third one i'm going to tell a date nights because if you ain't i you last but apparently your number three on this list is harder when we do a draft because i had like a list but talladega nights is it's hilarious and it's awkward at times it's like you feel uncomfortable watching this deadbeat dad or like the like wife who just moves onto the best friends and soon as she can but if you have john c reilly and will ferrell that's you can't lose brothers my only argument with that is that nascar is not a sport you don't think sitting in turning left is enough they have to pee in their pants that's it i think you're absolutely sore from all that turn like you're driving shoulders would probably be sore you got the the thing lying her head in my opinion it's not a sport is volleyball.
"jake taylor" Discussed on Stick to Football
"I guess i'll just have to watch it again but i also love major league because i have a soft spot for baseball movies and that was probably one of the first baseball movies that i've ever watched as weird as that might be no it's yeah it's a fantastic movie and you get two good ones yeah that's the thing it's probably i believe i said earlier it's the fourth best sequel of all time i mean you got what does it godfather is up there rocky and deadpool yeah and wouldn't baywatch has a sequel heil of that move actually live that movie major league i don't feel like it has everything has comedy has the charlie underdog as wesley snipes before blade before yet weird yeah after that it kind of the catcher j got rough with great jake taylor jake taylor with no knees la woman run to first base yes the american spirit bone on bone brewing got ligaments no just he needed screaming at east he needed to get on that joined element treatment just some number three i'm up i'm going again with the baseball movie is this a football podcast i don't even know but i'm going with bull durham love that movie gives you the feel of what it's like to be in the minor leagues maybe you're an old catcher or maybe he just have kevin costner in your movies i'm gonna love it if he's there i'm going bold maybe you're a young guy control issues.
"jake taylor" Discussed on Sports Radio 610
"That the third vase yet jake taylor taylor is going wrong i love the movie jake taylor trying to get like that out for for ricky vaughn and like the guy comes the plate and he basically brings up wife in the guy like files up you ever that like just sort of the plant my an easy in taylor's like yeah you know who knows you've was el salvador answer basis like he was choose with somebody else apparently that stuff actually happens pair of this actually goes on ramsey that wasn't the case that he was just pointing out that asia agb ag green is week was folks it was what it was a new was bags there'll be farewell vouchers quarter you got quartering to redeem himself a football down and gdas is small gm's or what what what what does he who's facts small a so good uh week i mean he's i'm sorry tara lou what you say because he week i'm a guy gotta gotta got it we're gonna we're gonna mix isn't the arsenal it's it's amazing r russell westbrook and the thunder are off to a bit of a struggle and i'm not going to pretend that the immediate redemption from my perspective that they're very probably gonna be underachieving a lot of really good teams that have a bunch of new personalities underachiever early and figured out later in these vocal personalities to merge together paul george his own sort of things melo we all know that's about ross has is so accustomed him the ball is hands but ciller foreign six and they're really interesting 'cause they have one of the best net ratings in the game in a plusminus defense efficiency radionov and sufficiency rating but interestingly when you put all three guys in the florida together there rating drops sleep jelly significantly when when these guys out on the floor together their rating dropped sharply a plus by 13 j two zero only two of them on.