20 Burst results for "Ira Jersey"
Bloomberg Radio New York
"ira jersey" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Tape podcast, a conversation with Ira Jersey of Bloomberg intelligence. When they did something similar to this with sequestration back in 2011, it did have the effect of limiting budget deficits, right? Just because you wound up having growth be somewhat bigger and higher than government spending increases. And I think that in a way that that's kind of the Goldilocks scenario here for budgetary hawks, right, people who want to make sure that the debt doesn't continue to increase at such a rapid pace. But making it a two year deal, also limit some of that, some of the angst that might occur around some of those bigger chunks of the pie. But like Mike said, things like social security spending, for example. That's one of the big things that is really driving some of the debt limit angst that we have right now, right? So there was some news yesterday that the Treasury Department is going to be issuing net debt of $64 billion that matures next Thursday and everyone's like, well, how are they issuing net debt of 60 $64 billion? Well, one of the ways is because $60 billion of non marketable debt is coming out of the social security trust fund to pay effectively to pay the social security payments that are due that day. So that debt is going down, but at the same time, the government doesn't have any cash in order to pay. So that's why the public debt has to be increased. So it's not that the government has more part of extraordinary measures to use. It just basically taken from one hand giving to the other. But that gets bigger and bigger as time goes on. So deficits are still going to be positive, right? You're still not going to have a balanced budget. But it does slow the growth
Bloomberg Markets
Fresh "Ira Jersey" from Bloomberg Markets
"Percent down from a little over 8 percent just a few weeks ago so still really high relative to what we've seen over the last 10 or 15 years but coming down off its peak. Hey, Ira, what are the pros doing? What are the hedge funds doing in Treasury the market? I mean it I'd seen some news recently where maybe they were unwinding their short position. What are you seeing when you when you talk to some of your hedge fund clients? Yeah, a bunch of things going on. So have people shifted from neutral to long Treasuries and you know you look at some of the data and some of the people that I've talked to and it seems like people are worried that the Federal Reserve is going to be cutting next year and because of that people are finally starting to buy duration. You look at the JP Morgan active Treasury investor sentiment survey and that's almost as long as it's ever been. It's come off a little bit in the latest survey, which was conducted last week but the week before they were as long as they've ever been in history. So clearly people were looking for you know basically bargain hunting in the Treasury market and getting long. So it does seem like not only are people getting less short but they're also getting long and then getting into the rates market and certainly the price action has showed you that too. You don't get a 75 basis point rally in 10s on people not buying. See I remember seeing a quote from Warren Buffett you know maybe a month or two ago and he says hey every auction we're gonna be out there buying and if the funds hedge want to sell them we're buying them here in Omaha and maybe it looks like again he was right. Hey Ira you mentioned that some clients are worried about the Fed cutting interest rates next year. When you square that away with some of the resilient data that we've been seeing we just had more service sector data this morning that Paul and I were talking about this morning coming in stronger than expected does this suggest that the Fed would actually be able to cut foreign costs if the economy still is showing signs of resiliency? Well I don't think so. I'm my differing view on what the Fed's going to do a little bit from my economic view. So yes the economy is slowing. The question is will the economy be slow enough to drive inflation toward the Fed's 2 % target and the answer to that I think is no not at this point you can't say that and you like said service sector is still looking pretty strong. Goods sector goods inflation might actually start to creep up a little bit over the next couple of months. So we're in a situation where you have probably stablish inflation near 3 % and a slightly slowing economy. That's probably a situation where the Fed's going to be on hold for longer than what the market's currently pricing. We're now pricing for a couple of cuts by the middle of next year and I think that that gets priced out of the market and when that happens we will see a bit of volatility and a bit of adjustment in the rest of the treasury market too. So the Fed's still in inflation I think that next week will be an opportunity for Jay Powell and the rest of the Fed to make it clear that they're still not happy with the pace of inflation. Well thanks to you and to Lisa Bromowitz I actually unfortunately now do pay attention to treasury auctions Ira. Anything coming to focus on? Well we have next week the treasury auctions which you know 10s and 30s are going to be what we focus on. Last month the 30 year was terrible I mean it was really not a good auction at all so we're gonna keep on focusing on those. but But it is interesting because I you know these auctions are people are picking their spots so even though we even though we had a week last week we had a week seven year auction but we had a really good five year auction right so people just like fives don't like sevens and I think that that's just a dynamic that we'll continue to see when when this new supply comes Well next week as you're mentioning the Fed decision on the 13th what are you expecting as far as what what the dot plots could be telling us because as you know they do change every quarter but I know investors are focused very heavily on that going into that meeting yeah so that'll be really interesting and probably the market will take whatever changes occur in the dot plot as a signal for how the Fed's thinking about this so right now the Federal Reserve has some cuts priced in but remember in September they had the year end that to they were hike going again and that seems to be completely off the table at this point so if the Federal Reserve were to say downshift and lower a few of the dots or the median goes dot a bit lower for the end of next year then you could probably see a bit more of a rally in in the 10 -year sector where you see yields approach 4 % whereas if they go the other way then just the opposite will happen so I think it's a pretty binary decision I suspect that the base case has to be unchanged I think maybe the dispersion so the difference between the high and the low expectations maybe comes in a little bit for 2024 and in particular because you know we just have more data we now have you know little a bit more consensus maybe on on what's going to happen in terms of the economy for next year. Ira, what's the top story in global soccer that I need to be focusing on? Well a couple of things we have the MLS cup final coming up this this week so that's super important and Lionel Messi calling major league soccer a minor league in in his hometown newspaper so that was something that I think maybe it was taking a little out of context he's not just saying one it's of the big five which it's not so right not not a big surprise. Alright Ira Jersey great stuff as always Ira Jersey he has our go -to person on all things on the rates he's the chief chief U .S. interest rate strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence based in Princeton New Jersey and also our resident soccer guru on a global you know you just can go with him for pretty much any question any league anywhere around the world he knows it all he's kind of like our Molly Smith who is yes tennis Ira Jersey is to soccer Molly Smith Bloomberg News is our tennis guru here at Bloomberg and we go to her for all that stuff. S &P 500 off about one tenth of one percent we'll have more coming up this is Bloomberg. Let's get some company news on right now Lisa Mateo. Thanks Paul. Shares of CBS health they are higher right now they're up about two and a half percent and this after the drugstore chain delivered a sales outlook that beat expectations the company also announced a new pharmacy reimbursement model it's called CVS cost vantage and it says it's going to bring greater transparency and simplicity to the system it's expected to launch in 2025. Well shares of AutoZone they're fluctuating and this is after reported results that beat expectations Bloomberg's Abigail Doolittle has more on that. They did beat earnings same
Bloomberg Radio New York
"ira jersey" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Tape podcast, a conversation with Ira Jersey of Bloomberg intelligence. When they did something similar to this with sequestration back in 2011, it did have the effect of limiting budget deficits, right? Just because you wound up having growth be somewhat bigger and higher than government spending increases. And I think that in a way that that's kind of the Goldilocks scenario here for budgetary hawks, right, people who want to make sure that the debt doesn't continue to increase at such a rapid pace. But making it a two year deal, also limit some of that, some of the angst that might occur around some of those bigger chunks of the pie. But like Mike said, things like social security spending, for example. That's one of the big things that is really driving some of the debt limit angst that we have right now, right? So there was some news yesterday that the Treasury Department is going to be issuing net debt of $64 billion at that matures next Thursday and everyone's like, well, how are they issuing net debt of 60 $64 billion? Well, one of the ways is because $60 billion of non marketable debt is coming out of the social security trust fund to pay effectively to pay the social security payments that are due that day. So that debt is going down, but at the same time, the government doesn't have any cash in order to pay. So that's why the public debt has to be increased. So it's not that the government has more part of extraordinary measures to use. It just basically taken from one hand giving to the other. But that gets bigger and bigger as time goes on. So deficits are still going to be positive, right? You're still not going to have a balanced budget. But it does slow
Bloomberg Markets
Fresh update on "ira jersey" discussed on Bloomberg Markets
"US activity employment picked up. Yes. Exactly. And new service services new orders fifty five point five. That was better than fifty four point nine consensus. So again on the ISM services side of the economy again seventy percent of the US economy is services seeing a little bit of a pickup there. So good news in that. That's kind of opposite of what we're seeing from factoring. So manufacturing interaction. So S &P kind of flat right now up at two points. So let's see where the action is in the equity market. So we welcome Elena Popina. She is Bloomberg equity's reporter joining us here in our Bloomberg interactive broker studio. Elena what are you looking at. Yeah a couple of things guys. Take two interactive and maker of video games is down 4 percent. The company released the first trailer of its new super anticipated video game Grand Theft Auto. So it was first released in 1997 was a huge success. Now all the fans are waiting for the new update and they are not saying when exactly that's going to happen. So that disappointing investors shares are down 3 percent three and a half percent actually because investors are looking for more certainty. So bad news for investors. I'm also looking at this. It is up about 3 percent after the drugstore said it's changing the way its pharmacies are getting paid. So they are setting very clear terms for the cost of the drug, the fixed markup and the fee for the services provided. Which is good news for shareholders because they are going to get more clarity. Shares are up and investors are kind of clearly cheering the news. Here's my recommendation for CVS, Villas & Victor Health Corp. Hire more people back in the pharmacy. The lines everywhere I go are like six, seven, eight deep and they've got one person back there. That's right. Filling them, answering phones, doing everything. It's unbelievable. They look so stressed out. They do and they're responsible for getting your medication correctly dosed. It's scary sometimes going back here. Hire some more people. Finally they're going to get paid more hopefully and that's good news. Maybe they're going to have to hire more people at some point. I go to CVS like everybody else. Good news there. What else we got? We're also looking at easy makers. Tesla is a big one and NIO is another one. The Chinese China based even maker NIO reported profitability that beat estimates across the board and better than expected adjusted earnings and vehicle gross margin. That's the good news. The bad news that investors aren't paying attention to is that the current quarter outlook, the fourth quarter outlook is much worse than expected. Analysts are saying let's wait and see. Maybe things are going to change in the next four, three weeks we have this year. They are very optimistic. That's a good thing. Shares are up 5%. Tesla, they have a strike in Denmark, spreads to Denmark halting shipments to Sweden. mean, that's just I on the Bloomberg news. I have no idea what that means for Tesla, but stock up again. Some analysts are saying that's part of the reason behind the weakness in Tesla today because, you know, cars can get into Sweden and Denmark is saying that we won't let cars in as well just because we want to support our colleagues in Sweden. This food is about 130 to 150 workers in Sweden. That's not a lot, but we know there is a big issue and it's been ongoing and, you know, let's see what happens next. And Bloomberg Intelligence is out with a note here. Tesla is entrenched as the fast -charge leader, which complicates outlook for some of the competitors there. So that's another part of the business as well. So, interesting. Anything else? That's it for me for now. Pretty quiet. Yeah, it is pretty quiet. We're waiting for the Fed. We've got a lot of economic data this week. Blackout week period for the Fed speakers. Which is good. I should do that more often, I think. Oh, you know, we hear from them too much. I mean, I don't know. We have unemployment data later this week and we have CPI and the FOMC decision next week. So it's going to be a pretty event for a couple of days and a couple of weeks. All right, so some economic data, not necessarily company -specific data. we're So pretty much done with the earnings. All right, Elena, thanks so much for joining us. Elena Papina, she covers the equity markets for Bloomberg News. Joining us here in our studio in the global HQ for Bloomberg. That is 731 Lexington Avenue, 58th Street. Oh, you know what I saw across the street going to the retail story? The retail story. Tell us. You know how with the pandemic. Our headquarters, 59th on Lexington Avenue, all the retail was blown out. They all left their stores except for one little chocolate shop. And then Sephora is still there. But a lot of the retailers left. One of the big spaces across the street, they're renovating. looks It like so many news coming in. So that's a good little tidbit for real estate, retail, that kind of thing. The Town of Manhattan. News you can use here. A little bit of coming back here in Midtown East. We're kind of almost Upper East Side, actually. Yeah, that's a good point. Let me think about it here at 60th Street. Alright, let's go to Ira Jersey. He is not here in New York. He is in Princeton safely ensconced in the Princeton HQ for Bloomberg Intelligence. Ira, we're going to hear from the Fed coming up soon here. You see some data here, like the Joltz data came in today. Well below kind of where people were looking for, seems to be Fed friendly. How do you think the Fed is looking at some of this economic data that you've seen over the past several days and weeks? Yeah, I think that the Fed is going to be reasonably happy with the way that the economy is turning out right now.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"ira jersey" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Tape podcast, a conversation with Ira Jersey of Bloomberg intelligence. When they did something similar to this with sequestration back in 2011, it did have the effect of limiting budget deficits, right? Just because you wound up having growth be somewhat bigger and higher than government spending increases. And I think that in a way that that's kind of the Goldilocks scenario here for budgetary hawks, right, people who want to make sure that the debt doesn't continue to increase at such a rapid pace. But making it a two year deal also limits some of that, some of the angst that might occur around some of those bigger chunks of the pie. But like Mike said, things like social security spending, for example. That's one of the big things that is really driving some of the debt limit angst that we have right now, right? So there was some news yesterday that the Treasury Department is going to be issuing net debt of $64 billion that matures next Thursday and everyone's like, well, how are they issuing net debt of 60 $64 billion? Well, one of the ways is because $60 billion of non marketable debt is coming out of the social security trust fund to pay effectively to pay the social security payments that are due that day. So that debt is going down, but at the same time, the government doesn't have any cash in order to pay. So that's why the public debt has to be increased. So it's not that the government has more part of extraordinary measures to use. It just basically taken from one hand giving to the other. But that gets bigger and bigger as time goes on. So deficits are still going to be positive, right? You're still not going to have a balanced budget. But it does slow
Bloomberg Radio New York
"ira jersey" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Tape podcast, a conversation with Ira Jersey of Bloomberg intelligence. When they did something similar to this with sequestration back in 2011, it did have the effect of limiting budget deficits, right? Just because you wound up having growth be somewhat bigger and higher than government spending increases. And I think that in a way that that's kind of the Goldilocks scenario here for budgetary hawks, right, people who want to make sure that the debt doesn't continue to increase at such a rapid pace. But making it a two year deal, also limit some of that. Some of the angst that might occur around some of those bigger chunks of the pie. But like Mike said, things like social security spending, for example. That's one of the big things that is really driving some of the debt limit angst that we have right now, right? So there was some news yesterday that the Treasury Department is going to be issuing net debt of $64 billion that matures next Thursday and everyone's like, well, how are they issuing net debt of 60 $64 billion? Well, one of the ways is because $60 billion of non marketable debt is coming out of the social security trust fund to pay effectively to pay the social security payments that are due that day. So that debt is going down, but at the same time, the government doesn't have any cash in order to pay. So that's why the public debt has to be increased. So it's not that the government has more part of extraordinary measures to use. It just basically taken from one hand giving to the other. But that gets bigger and bigger as time goes on. So deficits are still going to be positive, right? You're still not going to have a balanced budget. But it does slow the growth of
Bloomberg Radio New York
"ira jersey" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Tape podcast, a conversation with Ira Jersey of Bloomberg intelligence. When they did something similar to this with sequestration back in 2011, it did have the effect of limiting budget deficits, right? Just because one of them having growth be somewhat bigger and higher than government spending increases. And I think that in a way that that's kind of the Goldilocks scenario here for budgetary hawks, right, people who want to make sure that the debt doesn't continue to increase at such a rapid pace. But making it a two year deal also limits some of that, some of the angst that might occur around some of those bigger chunks of the pie. But like Mike said, things like social security spending, for example. That's one of the big things that is really driving some of the debt limit angst that we have right now, right? So there was some news yesterday that the Treasury Department is going to be issuing net debt of $64 billion that matures next Thursday and everyone's like, well, how are they issuing net debt of 60 $64 billion? Well, one of the ways is because $60 billion of non marketable debt is coming out of the social security trust fund to pay effectively to pay the social security payments that are due that day. So that debt is going down, but at the same time, the government doesn't have any cash in order to pay. So that's why the public debt has to be increased. So it's not that the government has more part of extraordinary measures to use. It just basically taken from one hand giving to the other. But that gets bigger and bigger as time goes on. So deficits are still going to be positive, right? You're still not going to have a balanced budget. But it does
Bloomberg Radio New York
"ira jersey" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Tate podcast, a conversation with Ira Jersey of Bloomberg intelligence. When they did something similar to this with sequestration back in 2011, it did have the effect of limiting budget deficits, right? Just because you wound up having growth be somewhat bigger and higher than government spending increases. And I think that in a way that that's kind of the Goldilocks scenario here for budgetary hawks, right, people who want to make sure that the debt doesn't continue to increase at such a rapid pace. But making it a two year deal, also limit some of that, some of the angst that might occur around some of those bigger chunks of the pie. But like Mike said, things like social security spending, for example. That's one of the big things that is really driving some of the debt limit angst that we have right now, right? So there was some news yesterday that the Treasury Department is going to be issuing net debt of $64 billion that matures next Thursday and everyone's like, well, how are they issuing net debt of $64 billion? Well, one of the ways is because $60 billion of non marketable debt is coming out of the social security trust fund to pay effectively to pay the social security payments that are due that day. So that debt is going down, but at the same time, the government doesn't have any cash in order to pay. So that's why the public debt has to be increased. So it's not that the government has more part of extraordinary measures to use. It just basically taken from one hand giving to the other. But that gets bigger and bigger as time goes on. So deficits are still going to be positive, right? You're still not going to have a balanced budget. But it does slow the
Bloomberg Radio New York
"ira jersey" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Should know this about me. I don't put up with bullies. And when you kick back, it hurts them more if you're wearing heels. I'm Nikki Haley and I'm running for president. She says it's time for a new generation of leadership. Global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts. Bloomberg radio on demand and in your podcast feed. On the latest edition of the tape podcast, a conversation with Ira Jersey of Bloomberg intelligence. So I'm going to ask you to put your little fed chairman hat on, what are you taking away from today's data? Really not very much. I mean, I think this is more or less what the fed was thinking. Inflation is not coming down very quickly. That's very true. And I think that that's always been the risk and the danger is that the market was pricing for inflation to come down much faster than it was ever likely to come down. And that's one of the reasons why what you're seeing today and the reason why two year yields are off so much is that we're now pricing out some potential cuts later in the year. And I think that that's probably the right move. I do think that the fed is going to do what it says and hike two or three more times at 25 basis points each. Then basically do nothing for the better part of the year and the market is starting to come around to that way of thinking, which Paul, I've told the math market, dude. Not the stock market. I mean, we rallied yesterday into this inflation print. Today we got it, and it was at expectations or higher than expected and we're continue to see prices rise, I just can't work it out. What's the disconnect between stocks and bonds? Maybe part of it is the idea that there's still some pricing power for certainly for some goods and services. But I can tell you that from the rates perspective, the reason why you're seeing this deeper inversion of the yield curve are now the deepest inverted that we've been in decades. And we're likely to see more. We have fair value on the two year yield, assuming that the fed does what we think it will do at around 4.8%. So we still have another 20 to 25 basis points to go here
Bloomberg Radio New York
"ira jersey" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Aggressively. And we actually saw some options trades this past week that kind of priced for a very significant cutting of interest rates later in the year. And those types of trades I think are just disaster protection more than they are really a view on the market. So do you expect them in that kind of scenario worse volatility in the bond market than last year? I don't know about worse volatility, volatility has been really high. And I think we'll continue to see the types of moves in the treasury market that we've seen. So you'll have some days when you're going to get ten or 15 basis point moves in the treasury market. And sometimes not on a lot of news or news that you wouldn't expect the market. The price that much. And in part, because investors and dealers don't want to take on a lot of risk. Number one, and number two, the market is so big compared to the financial sector and how willing the financial sector is to take that risk. So there are going to be times when you're going to see moves that are surprisingly large Vis-à-vis the data that gets announced. And or the information that we get from fed speakers and the like. So I think that that's here to stay probably until for the next three to 6 months at least. And then once we have an idea that what the fed's next move is going to be, I think that we could potentially see somewhat lower volatility. What do you think it's going to get the fed to start thinking about cutting? What kind of economic scenario would we have to see for that to transpire? Yeah, I think it's at this point, obviously the fed has two mandates, right? It's price stability and full employment. And right now there are meeting one of those goals, right? Definitely argue that we're at or near full employment. But at least so far, not yet, can they declare victory on their price stability mandate? So they're missing their price stability mandate. So firstly, I think it's all about jobs. It's all about how strong is the labor market. If we have an environment where the economy slows a lot, we see slower wage growth, but we don't have significant job losses, then the fed might not feel that they have to ease. So it's basically you have to see job losses in order for, I think, is a necessary condition for the fed to think about easing at this point. And until we get job losses, I would say that you have to think that the fed's going to stay on hold. Which raises the question, can and this seemed like an impossibility 6 months ago, but what is the actual possibility that they can do this? That they can lower inflation, whether we get to two or maybe say it three or three and a half or something like that without an employment rate that goes to 5 or 6%. Is that actually a possibility, which would be kind of amazing, no? Well, it wouldn't be completely unprecedented, but it would be pretty unusual. And it looks like that that might be starting. When you look at some of the data that we are getting on the wage side of things and you look at some of the personal income numbers, the pace of wage growth is slowing. But not across the board and not in every sector. So you do have this big dichotomy where you see services sector growth and prices continuing to be relatively high where you whereas you have goods prices starting to fall and actually are negative. So when you look at things on the three month annualized basis, you can see actually there's very significant reductions in the goods sector. But the services sector is much slower and that's all wage related. So it would be difficult for that to happen, I think, Alex. But at the same time, that's what the fed is hoping they can engineer and hoping will occur. But if it doesn't occur, that's where the fed has to maintain that higher interest rates to make sure that you don't see an acceleration in wages and therefore inflation. I was the best. There's just no one else you want to talk to on this. Be perfectly honest. Ira Jersey super appreciated Bloomberg intelligence chief U.S. interest rate strategist. I kind of have on the program. We're going to talk about Apple, the company's increased efforts to source parts in-house. You are listening to Bloomberg intelligence. I'm Bloomberg radio, providing in depth research and
Bloomberg Radio New York
"ira jersey" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Than 120 countries. Bloomberg radio on demand and in your podcast deed. On the latest edition of the tape podcast, a conversation with Bloomberg intelligence, chief rate strategist, Ira Jersey. We've changed our expectations a bit for the fed as well. We've even had fed speakers come out and say, you know what, 25 is cool in February. Yeah, I was expecting a downshift in after the December meeting actually. The fed and fed speakers have been talking about the fact that they need to kind of calibrate where ultimately the fed fund rate is going to end up. And I think we are nearing that point than market certainly pricing for two, maybe three more, three more hikes of 25 basis points. So it's not a big surprise. I think that they're going to go 25 at the February meeting. Today's price action is interesting in and of itself because initially we were initially bear steepening and now we're both evening. So two year yields have rallied quite a lot over the last couple of hours and in particular after that empire survey. It's like the lack of news is just pushing the market around quite a lot. That's exactly what I wanted to ask you about. That empire survey, it was like the worst since May of 2020, the worst data going back to, I think the global financial crisis. But do we really need to take stock in that dataset? Yeah, I'm not sure. I think that a lot of the volatility we're seeing is position based and you just have people who don't want to take big positions one way or the other. So you wind up seeing outsized moves. I'd say that the empire survey typically doesn't move the treasury market more than a basis point or two. We had this head fake in the empire survey last September
Bloomberg Radio New York
"ira jersey" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Index was up more than 3% today after Russia said it may cut crude production. This would be in response to those price caps imposed by G 7 nations on Russian exports, WTI was up 3.6% to 79 56. The gains in energy led the S&P 500 higher by 6 tenths of 1% and the Dow up by a half of 1%, meantime the NASDAQ composite was better by two tenths of 1%. One piece of the day's economic news validates the fed stance on raising interest rates. The core PCE rose in November at a rate of 4.7%. That was above expectations. Inflation, as we know, still has a long way to fall to get to the fed's 2% target, one problem is services inflation. Here's Bloomberg's Ira Jersey. Services still are growing pretty aggressively and pretty rapidly. So when you look at personal spending numbers, when you look at the pace of inflation in core services, there's still a little bit of a worry and service sector both spending and inflation tends to be a lot stickier than it is in the good sector, which you've already seen kind of fall off a cliff in a big way. Markets seem convinced the fed will continue to hike rates, the yield on the policy sensitive two year was up 5 basis points today to four 32. Interestingly, sales of new U.S. homes rose in November suggesting some stabilization in demand purchases of new single-family homes unexpectedly increased by 5.8% to an annualized rate of 640,000 last month. Here's Bloomberg's Michael McKee. We have seen mortgage rates come down some as banks lose business and they want to try to build up business so they're maybe cutting their margins a little bit on all this. But remember, existing home sales, which are 80% of the market, did fall. So we aren't seeing housing making a miraculous comeback. It's more that there is a market for these new homes. And they are selling and prices actually keep rising. Well, the treasury market seems to be priced for a hard landing in 2023. The yield curve is the most inverted it's been in 40 years. Here's John riding of bring capital. And the question is, how does that recession unfold? And I don't see it as an inventory recession. We've always had profit margins get squeezed ahead of recession. So I expect that we're going to see a squeeze and profit margins as fed policy bears down on price pressures and companies aren't able to pass those wage costs along. And we get a profit squeeze and that leads to a cutting investment spending leads to a cutting employment. And eventually a falling consumer spending. That's John riding of brain capital. Global news 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. This is Bloomberg. Bloomberg radio on demand and in your podcast feed. On the latest edition of the sound on podcast, a conversation with Eli yokley senior reporter at morning consult. On the most resonating stories this year. It's been quite a year. There's been a lot on Americans, but this is the 5th year we've done this project. We call seeing red and herd. We based it on hundreds of surveys we conduct throughout the year. And so this year, we were watching the midterms we were watching everything happening with legislative action on capital hill. But one thing that's been true for the last 5 years of this project is the events of the moment stand out. I mean, this year, the biggest news event, and it's time was the shooting and you've all day Texas have an elementary school and that was followed by the fall of roe V wade and then the death of the queen. You know, all these stories that make the top three list hurricane ends up there too as well as the Russian invasion of Ukraine. All these stories in this top list are like made for TV moments. We remember wall to wall coverage earlier this year of the Russian invasion of the two weeks of coverage or more of the queen's death. The one that stands out in terms of how we think about the midterms is probably row. Yes. And this was a decisive moment in the minds of the American people. It was a 50 year precedent change. It had big weight in terms of just news value. But then it also weighed on a lot of voters. I mean, I'm standing talking to you from Kansas City right now. Over in Overland Park, Kansas is sort of the heart of the abortion debate this year. That's where we saw a lot of people respond pretty viscerally in quite a red state and voting to put abortion rights in the constitution cases. That was a big moment for the American people that stood out in a pretty big way. Get more of this and other conversations on the latest Bloomberg sound on podcast. Subscribe on Apple Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Plus, listen anytime on the Bloomberg business
Bloomberg Radio New York
"ira jersey" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Power on Bloomberg television and radio. I'm David Weston. We've been talking about this economic numbers that came out this morning. It's time we figured out what the markets are making those numbers. And for that, we turn to critic Gupta. So what are the markets telling us? When he got that consumer confidence number specifically, you did see them come better than expected. So you did see a little bit of a pop in the market right now. Stock markets are in the green right now. The S&P 500 for our radio audience up about 5 tenths of 1%, the NASDAQ, up, will that flat, but the NASDAQ 100 stay up about one tenth of 1%. So not I would say conviction buying here, but certainly a little bit of a pop and remember this is still coming on low volume. So we have about on a ten day moving average, you have a volume dropping by about 30%. That's pretty normal. This is the day this is Christmas Eve's eve, not as many not as much participation in the market, but I would argue the bigger move is going to be in the bond market where you're really seeing sell off accelerate the ten year yield three 73, 5 basis point move higher there. And that's just been a common thing you've seen all week. People have been pulling out of the stock market pulling out of the bond market. Today seems to be a little bit of a reversal. And remember, the definition of a central rally that a lot of people are expecting for next week is the last 5 trading days of the year, given we are off Monday, that 5 day trading day, window starts today. Oh, I'm sorry. I was waiting till next week, actually. Yeah, I think everyone wants. Oh, wow. Surprise, surprise. But if you look back at the whole year, it's been pulling money out of stocks and actually bonds at the bond yield is up substantially from where it was last January 1. Substantially. And look, this has everything to do with the Federal Reserve, but one of the arguments going into 2023 is that you could actually see kind of a return, not just because inflation is going to be coming down because the Federal Reserve will be ending their tightening cycle or is so suspected. But because fed cuts are also priced into the market. And Ira Jersey, our chief rate strategist over at Bloomberg intelligence, he says, if you are pricing in a rate cut, it essentially caps your yields. So that creates kind of this bold case for treasuries, which really has been the losing trade this year next year, it might come back for that reason. We talk about individual stocks. We have to talk about Tesla, but we like to talk about Elon Musk no matter what, don't we? So tell us about Tesla. Well, this one is almost a macro story as well because Tesla of course we know has its own issues with Elon Musk trying to find financing for Twitter, but it looks like Reuters actually reported that Elon Musk has promised not to sell stock for the next two years is of course comes after he's offloaded about $40 billion worth of stock. So to see him say, well, we're not going to do it for the next two years. You did actually see Tesla gain in the pre market this morning, but I mean, put this into some perspective. In the last 17 trading days, it has been down 35% of that, of course, has been weighing on the S&P 500 as well, given it's the 8th largest member of the benchmark. Yeah, also, if you're a bank whose loan money to Elon Musk and taking some Tesla stock in security, you have to worry about a little bit. Yeah, not great to have exposure to that right now. That's something the banks are actually worried about. Yeah, exactly. Thank you so much. Could he Gupta? You can catch credit again at 1 p.m. Eastern Time when she will be anchoring Bloomberg
Bloomberg Radio New York
"ira jersey" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Of the yield curve, our Bloomberg intelligence is Ira Jersey, a favorite of this program. Said that because fed cuts are being priced into the market. It's essentially putting a cap on the two year yield. The minutes that the fed or the pricing of those cuts goes further out into 2023 or 2024, the two year old is going to skyrocket, would you agree with that? Yeah, well, two things. First of all, I now have a new goal. That is to be called a favorite of the program. I'm going to work. I'm going to work really hard on that. I do think so. Remember that before you can end this thing, the two year has to go past the terminal rate. Which is right now announced by the fed of over 5%. So we're not going to be done until we see that. So yes, I do think it goes higher. The inverted yield curve in the size of the inversion, yes, I understand that's accurately called basically 20 of the last 11 recessions. But the reality is there's also so much capital thrown into what is clearly the greatest economic anomaly in history. Which was the shutdown of the economy. And then the massive resurgence with all that capital, we're just going to see these anomalies. This gigantic yield curve inversion is about too much capital in the system. So again, we think there's a recession. I do think equities, maybe not right now, but in September, what we're going to see in the first quarter will price that in. And again, we've been a little bit more on the bearish side for about 18 months. We're not bears, but we were cautious. We're becoming more constructive. I think on the back half of 2023, going to 2024, we can start to see more constructive markets. What are your clients? When they call in here, it's been a brutal year equities fixed income across the board really tough. What are the clients asking you these days? Kind of what's on the top of their mind? Well, a couple things, first of all, they're confused by the market, right? Because what we know from history is when stocks go down bonds go up and vice versa. And that's not happening this year. I think mostly what the clients are saying is, where do we go now? What's next? Because the status quo for the last ten years is really coming apart at the seams. But that said, we're long-term investors. So our clients tend to be very calm and especially clients have been with us a long time. Most of the questions we get are, what are we buying? Right. Where's the value? Where do we go here, that there's got to be something here to make money on? All right, good stuff. Leo Kelly, appreciate you stopping in again, coming up Baltimore, right? That's right. Baltimore. All right. On his way to becoming a favorite of the program. There you go. Exactly. I'm not sure what that gets you actually, but we appreciate it in the studio. Exactly. Leo Kelly, CEO Vernon's capital visors joining us live here on our Bloomberg interactor, broker studio. So that's good. Slowly getting constructive here. Looking at it markets, you know, that's off a half a percent on the S&P 500, nothing crazy. But still, I think that's what we're going to get for the next couple of weeks here. Yeah, it's a Santa rally in reverse a Grinch rally or a Grinch selloff, if you will. I'm working on the terminology. Yeah. Whatever the opposite of Santa rally is. Yeah, well, all I know is I'm here every day. So am I to the end of the week, see that we're going to hold this place down. Do we get paid over time for that? I don't know. I have to see, I think I know a guy who sits over there. Eric molo, do we get paid over time for more? He's coming. I don't know. He says he would. We're not unionized, are we? Eric is going to lead our union. Okay. I've never been in a union. I should think about that. Me neither. For radio. All right, S&P 500 off 6 tenths of 1% of the Dow off 16 basis points. The NASDAQ off 1.25% here in the trading light trading about 15% below the 30 day average here. So we'll note that here in this holiday week. We'll have more coming up this is
Bloomberg Radio New York
"ira jersey" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"This week about inflation Yeah for sure big including one with Ira Jersey right strategist at Bloomberg intelligence and Bloomberg's Michael McKee And Bloomberg's Alex Steele and guy Johnson kicked things off here asking Ira and then Mike if inflation is already priced in So yeah I think it mostly is If you look at what the what the inflation swaps market is pricing So this is where the market thinks that CPI will be over the core over the tenor of this particular instrument If you look at that we're thinking four ish percent inflation this year and then slowing inflation in 23 and 24 So the market I think is certainly pricing for deceleration of inflation growth but 4% inflation is still relatively high to what we've gotten used to over the past two decades So I do think that at least in the rate side of things the rates market is kind of there already thinking that we're going to have continued inflation well above 3% which of course is well above the fed's target Next question do you same thing Is hide inflation fully priced Well I defer to Ira on a fully priced idea but I would say that the fed probably thinks it is at this point because we've not had any secret about the fact that fed is going to be raising rates They've talked more and more about it as the weeks go on It's more a question of what is the price What is the appropriate price for each of the different tenors And that's what the market is trying to figure out Jay Powell noted that he talked about how the markets tend to overreact and be somewhat volatile as they try to piece together Where they should be on these things because they haven't had it's been two years two and a half years since this round began to two years And then we went for 7 or 8 years before that at zero rates So what is the actual price What is a 5 year note actually worth Mike let's just talk about what the fed's job is going to be going forward We heard it articulated by the fed chair Jay Powell Up for renomination He talked about the idea of being able to bring inflation down without sort of damaging the U.S. economy That is a very tough needle to thread In terms of the pricing on inflation there is this kind of expectation as I talked about of inflation coming down My question is can it be brought down without damaging the economy And if that is something that we now need to think about is that the focus for markets going forward from here rather than worrying about where inflation is and the fed reaction it's what action we get from the feds feds moves in terms of the real economy Well I think you'll see the fed move very cautiously Their track record in this area not very good over the history of U.S. recession So a lot of them have come about because the fed over tightened But it reminds me of the old saying it's better to be lucky than good The fed could do it this time without doing a whole lot If the reasons they think we are seeing this inflation are correct and they start to go away if supply chains start to rationalize at the same time that consumers start to spend a little bit less particularly on goods rather than services because the government support they were getting has slowed down Then inflation could come back down and could come back down and noticeably not necessarily to their 2% target without them having to tighten too far That's going to be the question is is the fed going to have to do this Or is it going to be things that happen sort of organically Right And in some ways rents for example immune in some ways to both of those things If the scenario that we're talking around to your works out that has inflation will peak and then slowly move lower and that the fed's not going to make an enormous policy mistake Where do you think we need to see the biggest rereading in assets Yeah well I think for the rates market I think that probably means we get a little bit of a steepening of the yield curve if the fed does it correctly right So the risk here is that the Federal Reserve hikes too much and too fast and that goes to guys question from before is if the fed gets it wrong like my notice they often do and go too fast too quickly that's when you can get a significant flattening of the yield curve That's probably when you see risk assets do pretty poorly and then kind of forcing the fed maybe to slow down their interest rate hikes So I think there is a tough balancing act here And as far as market repricing there's not a lot of markets right now that we see there are very out of whack in the fixed income space except maybe the tips market a little bit There's been a lot of people putting in tens of billions of dollars into tips products like ETFs and mutual funds in a market that's relatively illiquid compared to say the regular US Treasury market So you see real yields at negative 80 basis points for ten year tips That's way too low And over time I think that's where you can see a significant repricing as the fed hikes and starts to run off their balance sheet which seems like it's all done deal that the fed is going to start doing that very soon after they initially hike Bloomberg's Alex Steele and guy Johnson with Bloomberg intelligence rate strategist Ira Jersey and Bloomberg's Michael McKee And coming up does.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"ira jersey" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Is the validation finally of an inflation widely anticipated as we just heard from Ira Jersey I just looked up Michael Barr I looked up Fenway Park 1991 you know a cheaper seat was $12 Yeah The family could go for you know you were living large $60 all in on tickets And a beer was an $8000 And you're against lager beer was three 25 and that was rich That was and you could go to the ballpark for you know 200 bucks big time Hundred bucks We threw in good souvenirs Now the Uber's 200 years Everything is a lot And this is the cost of living that we're dealing with now especially in sports you see it all the time where just souvenirs or food at the ballpark is high And kudos to the concession stands because yes they have to make a living too but you know it's still a lot Here's the issue We're talking about inflation in the near term and certainly saw 5 year break-even rates rise to the highest in the records going back to 2002 But there is nothing better to correct prices that are going too high than high prices Because people buy fewer She's out of the 70s But hold on a second So if that's the case is Ira Jersey portraying the right kind of picture when he says that the market's pricing can stimulation This is the reason why right Because it naturally slows growth If we get wage inflation that changes the whole picture I think it is the smartest thing I've ever leases what you said And I think the chairman Powell knows is the percentage of people that have never experienced this is not to be underestimated Yeah Michael bar and I this is like you know been there done that Yes You should have seen Michael barred driving a VW diesel in the 70s He's great He's so got it I will say though I mean so since you've seen it before does that make it any easier for you Or does that mean No It could go The word here is pernicious And a lot of people are rationalizing away from a pernicious effect I think for fancy people it's going to be tuition but for people that aren't that fancy I'm sorry.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"ira jersey" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"IRA Jersey. We had some better than expected inflation data coming a little bit lower than expected. What does this mean for the Federal Reserve? I Rose will certainly has been formed thoughts there. Plus Jason Pride. He's a C I o of private wealth at Glenmede. Talk to him about his thoughts on these markets. Are we at peak growth, But first, it's good to Gregg Jarrett. Bloomberg News for a Bloomberg business flash great after opening higher stocks are now moving into the red after the Labor Department reported consumer prices rose 5.3% in August from a year earlier, in line with economists expectations. The rising prices from July to August of 3 10 7% was slower than forecast and could ease pressure on the Fed weighing the risks from elevated inflation. Christian Mueller Goldman Goldman Christian Mueller, Goldman Sachs tells Bloomberg There is reason for equity optimism offshore. The U. S equity market has also performed since the second quarter exactly because of the quality secular growth leadership so we would expect into the fourth quarter. And we do agree, of course, with this idea that there could be a bit more reflation optimism into the fourth quarter. In that type of setup, you would expect year old Japan. Maybe even emerging markets do much better than these down a quarter of a percent. Now downtown. The Dow's down 3/10 of a percent down 110 and the NASDAQ is down 1/10 of a percent down 15. The 10 year is up 12 30 seconds. The yield 1.28% West Texas Intermediate crude is up 4/10 of a percent at 70 73 a barrel while Comex gold little changed in 17 94 30 an ounce The Valerie and one of 9 77, the euro dollar 18 23, the British found.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"ira jersey" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"30 year U S corporate debt. And then if you do that, then whoever you bought it from his likely to want tol, you know, replace that with something and the easiest thing to replace that with quickly ends up being US Treasuries. Whatever happened to the 50 year bond, who were talking about that at some point last year? Is that the thing Well, I don't think it's dead. There's you know a lot of questions as to whether or not the Treasury Department will issue it. Janet Yellen was asked about it during her During her testimony when she was, uh, nominee now. Treasury Secretary, um So I think that is, it is something that the Treasury will consider once again whether or not they actually, they actually decide to issue it, I think is Is going to be a choice basically that that they make and I do think that there would be some demand that the question remains. And this is the reason why they didn't issue it during the Trump administration is how deep that demand is. Is there a way that they can issue these bonds? And make sure that they're not gonna, um, have sloppy auctions, and it's not going to yield significantly more than the 30 year. Your recent note. This is clearly aimed at more sophisticated investors than I, But it says Number two is belly of long end butterfly underperforming. What do you mean? So when you looking so last May, the Treasury Department started the issue 20 years bombs for the first time in several decades. And, um and what you see is when you when you look at the yield curve from the 10 year, the 20 year in the 30 year points on the curve, the 20 year has really not been doing very well. So the yields on the 20 year have been Get moving higher faster than 10 year and 30 year, And I think that that's an interesting dynamic because it you know what we're trying to figure out who's not buying these things that were before. Hey, IRA. Thanks so much for joining us, as always, always appreciate getting their thoughts on all things in the Treasury market. It's Ira Jersey chief.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"ira jersey" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"S Treasury secretary nominee Janet Yellen from her confirmation hearing in Washington, D C will bring them to you as they occur right now, let's go. Ira Jersey get smoked Preview if you will of what we might hear from secretary nominee Janet Yung Ira Jersey, chief U. S interest rates strategist Four Bloomberg Intelligence joins US, IRA Thanks so much for coming on with us here today. Would you expect to hear from Mrs Yellen today? First. I think we're going to hear a big sales pitch for President elect Biden's $1.9 trillion stimulus plan. I think that will be important. She'll probably be asked about How that will be funded and how that might affect interest rates, and she'll say, well, interest rates historically very low, So this is the time you want to be taking on more debt. Not when interest rates are significantly higher. So I think those of the One of the first the first couple of things and then and then I suspected at some levels should also be asked about working with the Federal Reserve, which is not something that Secretary Mnuchin necessarily always had a A rosy, rosy time with so so I think Janet Yellen will will be after you know, a number of things both from the monetary and the physical side of things today. How long her rhetoric changed from the time when she was when she was Federal Reserve chair. I mean, obviously, there were certain restrictions, then that there aren't on her now should be anticipated. Different kind of Janet Yellen. I think it's a little bit but you know, even Janet Yellen, she was out front talking about things that quite frankly, are not exactly in the Federal Reserve's per view. So things like income inequality was Something that she talked about both in public remarks as well as before members of Congress in the past, so so now she can speak much more directly about that. And I think that especially with Democrats, you know Senator Grassley and others. Being Democrats being in majority now that she'll be asked about income inequality and number of times and what can be done to fix that? And I think that she'll, um you know, she has very strong opinions about about income inequality in both the problems. Um That that it creates in the broader economy, but also you know how you can fix it. And you know, it's not an easy in easy ask and you know they're some of the people. I think once she answers that Some Republicans may actually go on the I don't want to say attacker, but certainly good. Take the other side and say, Well, there has to be winners and losers then and you know, how do you incentivize investment and at the same time? Ensure that incomes can be more normalized between between the haves and the have nots. IRA. What do we know about Janet Yellen's thoughts and policies and Strategies about the ongoing fiscal deficit. The You know the annual deficits we run every year in this country and the long term debt this country's racking up. How does she feel about that? That's a good question. We haven't heard a lot from her on that exact subject, except saying that you know it can't it can't go on forever, so she's not a modern monetary theorist. At hard anyway, but but I think that she'll probably come out and say, Well, this is the time when you need to spend she'll take a very neo Kensi in view, I would think which is you know you have to spend when the economy is weak when interest rates are low and then reduce the amount of deficit spending as economy recovers, and you're in the good times. Um, the you know, clearly over the last over the last half century, we haven't had a great A great track record of that. But what has happened during good times is that you've had a nominal GDP growth growing much faster than the fiscal deficit. So you've had debt to GDP go down, but now with the massive amounts of deficit spending over the last decade We We've We've now approached 100% that GDP and in fact, this year we will. We will go over that and particularly if there is another $1.9 trillion stimulus. So s so she'll have to address that. And it will be interesting to see you know how worried she is about that and how much she you know, says, Hey, we do something now. But in the future the rest of my term as s Treasury secretary. Maybe we won't be Have deficits that are as high as they'll likely be over the next 12 months. Territory. Grassley is making his opening statement right now that will go on for a few minutes. IRA. You know, she will obviously talk about the ways to stimulate the economy. Will she be in favor off direct checks? Will she talk about helicopter money? Well, Helicopter money is different than director because helicopter money is is talking about monetary policy and basically the Federal Reserve printing money, which is a much longer discussion and is not something that necessarily works the way that some monetary theorist think it does, At least in my opinion. But but I think that she will talk about some direct checks. I think the she will acknowledge that direct checks on Lee help in the very short term and that there's other policies that, um, that maybe more important for the long term sustainability of the country. So, um, so things like, you know, mortgage moratoriums or Ensuring that people keep jobs. So like something like the P P p might be better than direct stimulus checks Tol the household sector because one of the things that we have to remember is that direct checks to the household sector. They are one time boost. And if if all of that money is spent, or or even if someone saved it's still only it doesn't help in the longer term, so something like keeping people in their jobs or or, you know, helping people stay, stay at work or helping with longer term unemployment. Those are things that will probably have a greater Impact on the long term health of the economy. Then you know someone getting an extra an extra five or $600 in you know it one time. So I read, you know, In addition to this 1.9 train, fiscal stimulus that is on the table right now there's talk of already another package behind it, Perhaps even larger that maybe More infrastructure oriented. More longer term it even green component. Do we know what Janet Yellen feels about Some of those strategies and those policies? Well, I don't think that she I think that ultimately she'll be on board with what the president's general plan. So if if the president does come out with some kind of No green, you know, green new deal, or, um, on infrastructure spending that what might go under over multiple years?.
Bloomberg Best
Fed holds rates steady, but opens the door for a rate cut in the future
"The Federal Reserve indicated a readiness to cut interest rates for the first time in more than a decade to sustain a near record US economic expansion, citing uncertainties in their outlook while chairman, Jerome Powell and fellow policymakers left their key rate in the range up two and a quarter percent to two and a half. They dropped a reference in their statement to being patient on barring costs and forecast. A larger miss of their two percent, inflation target this year, so June. For more insight, Bloomberg's Carol Massar and Jason Kelly spoke with Petri spa of Hamco, and IRA jersey. The chief interest rate strategist for Bloomberg intelligence. Let's get to you. Tell me what dump sad at you. What you think is really notable in this latest fed decision, and there was a like mixed thinking going into it in terms of investors the street and now we see in the feds got of mixed thinking, so I think firstly the fed did not disappoint. So the. The market was certainly pricing for the fed to be dovish, and they were I think, just appropriately dovish, I think there was the big risk and a lot of people were thinking that maybe they would take back some optionality and not be as dovish as the market thought, but I think between the dot plot and what they said in the statement, they kind of just met the market's expectations, not a whole lot more, and you do see a little bit of a market reaction because the thing is if the feds little dovish now they could get more. Dovish later so push pests qualley from pimco big takeaway for you. The fed is keeping its options open, if not, it's not going to cut until it sees something bad, because it's trying to save bullet. That's you know, for me if they go number one and number two, if that chairman Powell is very much aware that all I on him where every word every north one just going to dissect it and to extent that he is coming across more hawkish, and painted market sentiment could turn pretty quickly and put your one of the things I wonder is the sort of geopolitical backdrop here, you know, we're heading into a week. We ten days where present United States is going to be a soccer Japan meeting with his counterpart from China, president Xi. Those trade winds certainly are playing through this economy right now. How do you balance that out? If you're an investor what we heard from the fed today, and what we're hearing from a geo economic perspective, investors, look at potential trade war, and, you know, and on the other side of the fed standing by to support the economy. All the good news seems to have been priced in meaning that the market is under subpoena cups by your end that seems to be. Conclusion market is also anticipating that trade war with China is going to be averted same with Mexico yesterday. We saw that after the tweet from the president the market, but he strongly all of these good news have been priced in. But the question is, if the meeting for whatever reason does not go well, or we wake up to tweet that is hostile to China, that does issues are real and they haven't been priced in. So my sense stat investors are still very often, but it's best to consider caution going forward, especially where pricing in the market. I mean I do think about and, and, you know, I think about g twenty right? It's not this weekend next weekend. I do wonder if we get some resolution on some of these as folks around this table have have have termed policy gaps. Right. If we get some resolution between China and the United States. How that think how might that impact the fed? Thinking what it means for interest. I think that's one of the ironies here is that a lot of the angst and a lot of the certainly the market worry and market. Fear is really predicated on things that are, you know, quote unquote, manmade. Right. So these are actually policy decisions at someone can make. So if there is a kind of blanket resolution with all of the different trading that have been going on with the White House and other countries. All of a sudden, you can see not only risk assets do okay, but also quite frankly, the bond market selloff pretty significantly so compared to where the economy is already very rich to fair value. At least where we as the make fair value to be, so you can wind up seeing a pretty big pullback here. And actually, the fed may be take back a little bit of its dovish nece, as well, assuming that these trade problems go with you agree with that. Yes. Especially the last point, where between policy and removal of trade war with the moving in different direction. Meaning that should we receive bad news. News. You know, on trade fed will step in, but should we receive good news on trade? Meaning no-trade war, many people say, oh, that's going to be hugely positive, but consider that if we receive good news on the trade war front that the fed actually has room now to step back and said, we don't need to cut rates because, you know, the economy has been removed or reduced poetry Smalley of Pam, co an IRA jersey. The chief interest rates strategist for Bloomberg