20 Episode results for "Head Of Research"
Computer Vision with Peter Kontschieder
"Map. Larry is a company that processes high volumes of images to develop a labeled three D model of the physical world map. Larry's API's allow developers to build applications that are aware of stop signs buildings streets. Trees and other physical objects in real world space, the potential use cases for map Larry are numerous ranging from self driving cars to augmented reality. We can now build a three D model of the real world and expose API's to that three D model of the real world. It's not a perfect representation of reality. But it is much better than we had just a few years ago. What has changed? How have the tools advanced such that we are able to build an API for accessing information about the physical world around us map? Larry is possible because of a combination of modern developments high quality smartphone. Cameras allow users to crowd source images of the world around them, cloud computing allows for cheap workload processing newer, computer vision techniques, allow two d images to be stitched together in a three d representation. Deep learning architectures improve the classification and segmentation of objects in an image. Peter Kaci her is the head of research at map, Larry and he joins the show to talk about the technologies and research that has enabled map Larry to build a futuristic business an API for accessing information about the physical world software engineering daily is looking for sponsors. If you're interested in reaching over fifty thousand developers you can go to software engineering daily dot com slash sponsor to find out more. You can send us a message. We'd love to hear from you. If you're an engineer working at a company that is marketing to developers or if you are hiring developers. 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So go to manifold dot CO slash s daily and shop around for tools to be creative. Thanks again to manifold. Intercon cheater you are head of research at map. Larry welcome to software. Engineering daily. Hi, how how're you? I'm doing great. I'm looking forward to talking about map, Larry and image, representation and computer vision. And I thought we would start with some basics around computer vision, and we can gradually get into the applications of computer vision the difference between research and applications so let's start with some fundamentals. If you take an image an image can be represented numerically as an end by an by three matrix of pixels. And this is N by end, meaning the dimension. So maybe it's like two hundred fifty six two hundred fifty six image by three meaning RGB, so red green blue values to the you can define what the color of any pixel in that space is so you have these numerical represent. -tations of images, and then you can do interesting things with those images give an overview of taking an image and its mathematical representation the matrix and extracting meaning from that image. So this is actually all that it is the treatise Cussing computer vision, especially if it's image based a competition to consider your RGB image to do Justice crowd. So this NBA on Thames Frey image. What it would really hold. This is a bunch of numbers usually somewhere between Syrian to fifty five per pixel per color channel and in its combination. As you noted this would basically represent the color for each pixel. So this is really just a very structured way of aligning data on a grid as what people sort of refer to us image of a human person not to the machine. This is basically all it sees it's just a regular grit. Their behalf is Datta arranged. And when it comes to computer vision, what would like to find. And we would want to do is identify patterns in this image that correspond to something that that humans would like to sort of identify in design Mitch. So if we take a look at an image, and we see that. There's a dog or a person than to us. It's clear that there's a notion of pixels not being there in random or shuffled way. But rather deformed this object in very consistent manner. There's a delineation there's an outline of object. This is something that naturally absorb by just looking at it. We don't even have to think about it. While as a machine we need to start building up a representation are someway of how machine can actually exploited. This the structure Dada at behalf and form all of this together. And and, you know, make computations on top of his input in order to to identify something s being an uptick something that we might to detect or something that we might want to to segment and all of that requires cauda a lot of let's say computation of know-how and capacity. If you want to do this in a in a way that it's actually usable in practice that you can use it for business for up occasions like self driving. And so on. On and. Yeah. And giving very short answer on how to let's say abstract in normal regular impotent Mitch into something that tells you this is the number of upticks that I'm interested in this is about those objects are located I think that would fill a number of lectures in the university. Okay. We'll abbreviate it. We'll we'll get through it quickly. But let's just cover some of the basic concept. So we've got for example, an image of a cat, and it's represented as a two hundred fifty six to fifty six by three matrix of pixels. It's a nice looking cat and in order to analyze that image. We can do something called convoluted over that matrix of pixels. Can you explain what a convoluted is? So you'll basically referring to this current stream of technology or algorithms that's being used and computer vision. So it's all about deep learning these days and deep learning survey of how can you actually setup? Extraction of semantic label from an input image into something that this cat that this image as an abstraction of flares and those layers, for example, could become dilutions and the collusion of something. It's a local operator and that local operative with locally perform, basically, a multiplication and addition, and depending on what this convoluted Colonel this is usually free time three or five times five kernel that would sort of tried to find specific patterns, and this image. Let's start to react on the on the local information that so if you think about maybe think about the eye of that cath if Doug would be something like a circular kind of shape or pattern than if you have a collusion with Colonel that would basically try to have a very similar structure, it tried to find matching patterns in that input image and did try. Could be basically firing at this area of you have this. I of the cat and be sort of lower in terms of its response on other areas self that image, and as we have a very interesting sample. There's a very specific way of having a collusion or pollution of kernel that you would apply to an image to find this specific I off the cut. What you would also want to have something that might fire on the ears of the cat or maybe on the body or on the tail of the cat SE. This is this is basically gradually. It's a gradual process would start looking at very very narrow and and local features as we called them. And as you basically at more and more of these layers, you will try to explain the whole cat by means of its individual pieces. If you want by assembling, basically progress to more and more people layers in over network. So if we were to take a matrix that was a ten by ten matrix. And it just had ones and zeroes in it you, and I would be able to identify. Hey, look in the upper right hand corner of that ten by ten matrix. There's a bunch of ones up there. And and we could agree on that. We could say look there happens to be a lot of ones up in that right hand corner in what this conflusion system of finding. Edges or finding circles is doing is very similar. It's just doing that at a deeper more complex way where computer can say, you know, much like you, and I could could with our basic analysis could say there's a bunch of ones in the upper right hand corner. A computer could say this collection of pixels in this space over here. This looks like a circle or this looks like an eye, and then you can start to build up these higher levels of abstraction that are associated with these matrices of pixels. Guess so we'll do we'll be able to identify. It's basically those come Volusia kernel parameters there eventually being learned through this process of training, a deep neural network or or or not working in that simply sample here. So you would actually try to write down your task as a kind of up to my station problem. And the optimization problem would be solved in a way that you basically try to find what would an individual convoluted operator have to look like in order to best possibly explain or self optimization problem. And if it's something that would have to sort of respond to the eye of a cat in the best possible way to solve your problem. Because all you want to do is finding is of cats than that, Volusia Colonel would look probably very much like an eye of a cat. If will be possible. So what would really try to do is find exactly the kind of pattern? The best describes your data that you use for learning. This basically your training data that you have in your your loaning problem. Right. Yeah. You might have a collection of images of cats and somebody has gone through those images and labeled the eyes of the cats. So that the computer can idea. Defy that this section of the picture is a cat. I there's a number of other terms, we could we could go through. But I don't want to spend too much time on these basics of computer vision. Because there's a lot of other podcasts that have covered this. But one other term I'd like to define this is latent space. Can you explain what latent space is? So if you referred to Layton space in terms of collusion network or network than what you basically started this discussion with the Lostis are to being mentioned and Byron times for matrix that new uses input. And at the end, you want something like an output you want. This this label that basically says this is a cat this image shows, a cath now everything that you use in order to have this translation from this original input data to this. Let's say output statement, that's us. That's a cat. This is largely undefined. So this is not something that we can easily understand this. This is the input. Image or that's the output that comes and everything that's basically inbetween can be in this tied-in layers in this hidden or latent states that you have that you can have your model sort of operating, and that means you basically undergo a number of different transformations from the input to the output and all of those states are somehow late, and because you don't really define them in advance. Right. So I guess as the network that you're building gets deeper and deeper you're getting further and further from these well-defined operators, like an edge detection layer or a circle detection layer, and you're getting into higher and higher level territory where the computer is taking things like edges and circles and some of these lower layers and abstracting them into a latent space in that latent space may cover features. That are harder to describe to a human. But nonetheless, they are based on patterns. It's just latent to what may be a surface level. Understanding of the collections of images is that inaccurate way of looking at it. Yes. So this is also very often referred to us hidden layers or hidden states, and that's very much. Yes. So people started to visualize this deep neural networks, and you know, because they wanted to understand what's what's basically under what's going on under the hood. And as you just said so very early on in these layers, you very often find responses for edges for very sharp transitions really very very low level features as we would call them. And as basically go down deeper in the network layers what you would find something that Glomma rates. This local information and getting more and more. It's starting to assemble it and become more and more response that looks like the actual object. You would want to find. So I think we've covered kind of the basics of this. But what gets people so excited about deep learning is this idea that you take something like an image. And we look at images how on earth. Would we explain to a computer what an image is or a music a piece of music, you know, you have this highly dimensional abstract concept, like amused, like music or a piece of art. But then we've just defined this way of breaking it down into mathematical terms into a structure that it computer can understand it a lower level. And then we've built up these richer abstractions that let us define things that maybe we can't even put into words, we can just label them and described to a computer, the computer can learn the mathematical space and then the late and space that composes those concepts. And that's what's so exciting about deep learning at least to meet. Yes, you're absolutely right. So maybe to just fill in this whole happened before. Let's say two thousand ten two thousand twelve Mundus started to really, you know, fly in this computer vision space to all these people learning and sort of narrow artificial intelligence methods that we're using today. But before like, let's say end of the ninety s beginning of the two thousand people who are working on very different models and methods, and they wanted to be much more explicit in the way, we wanted to solve computer vision tasks, so there was an era where people were very much into describing objects by in terms of their shapes and trying to find shape models. That would understand are well explained the object would be interested in in recognizing while as you say with deep learning all of a sudden, but he would would really need this away to first of all have a curated way of collecting data. For example, you have large data sources those data sources are somehow being annotated can. Be most of the time we're talking about human annotation. So there's really a person sitting down and annotating this data. That's one very important part. If you have large masses of those annotated data sets, this will already help you to sort of tackle, your your problem from one perspective, and the other perspective is you have a model that as you say you basically define what is the input. And what what you would like to get us an output now in let's say, a simple example of performing let's say image classification, very you don't really care about the very fine details, but he will just have an times or times and three input image. And then you would want to have like a single label attached to this in the outside are sorry. As the result from the model, and the second part also needs sort of the computation that you need in order to train these models. But as you say, the really exciting part is definitely that you define this problem in terms of. It's mathematics, and then you start basically solving this Optima this underlying optimization problem. And if you just trying to long enough, and if you if you have good enough data that explains your problem done the model, eventually find a way to absorb this information and your training data and come up with something that if you basically show a new and unseen image to this model, it will still give you the correct answer for what you would want the models predict on this. For all of the advances in data science and machine learning over the last few years. Most teams are still stuck trying to deploy their machine learning models manually that is tedious. It's resource intensive and often ends in various forms of failure the algorithm. Lia AI layer deploys your models automatically in minutes empowering, data, scientists and machine learning engineers to production is their work with ease. Algorithm. 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Could you give a brief history of how the technology has improved through this research Evelyn? Yeah, can try. So I mean, those CNN's those pollution indoor networks directionally, not new. I mean people like young Luca who's one of the founding fathers or Geoff Hinton debriefing on this fairly longtime ago. So actually CNN's came up and of the eighties beginning of the ninety s and they started fairly shallow networks by the time. So they were very small very low capacity as we would say only a few layers and only very few parameters, so they had so basically you would parameters these models. You would say that's the number of of neurons. Spur for layer that you would want to consider and those were really small at the beginning. And then let's let's make a large jump in terms of time and some point was Alex net and Alex nut was I remember well so this supposed to paper presented a naps in two thousand twelve which is one of the largest and most important or actually now one of the largest and most important comfort since in the field, and they were going down. I think it was like seven or eight layers with a with a large number of parameters. Don't let me down the actual number of layers. But they just increase the capacity a lot and thinking. Wow. That's that's really insane. How can you go that deep, and then we made another jump in MC another Trump in time. And all of a sudden, there's this MSCI networks and later on what coming hand collaborators found the verdict Rhys it will not for expect. You all of a sudden go down. Fifty one hundred hundred and fifty layers even more and there's a large number of variations that came out afterwards. And all of a sudden, you go down like really extremely deep and for a long time for specific tasks like, let's an image classification again, you could see that adding more capacity in terms of adding more and more layers to the model. I mean, it came with some complications on how you could properly train those models. But if you had the data and the compute power and time to actually wait for those models to be properly trained, then they would just start to perform veteran better the deeper. You you went and yeah, they're still a trend of adding new parameters if you have even more data sources or even larger data sources than there are still some increase in performance that you see. But of course, this always comes with a cost the cost of the computation about can spent. Yes, this sets us up well for a discussion of map, Larry because as you. Defined this application of deep neural networks to computer vision is fairly new and it's still moving. It's still getting more efficient. It's getting more accurate, and that's the tailwind that you're writing at map. Larry. So that's the answer to kind of the why now question why does map Larry makes sense now when some of the technology that map Alaria is built on has been around for five or ten years, but other pieces are very very new. So that's the context I'd like to frame your business in. So can you explain what map Larry is? Yes. So basically Napa Larry is a platform will be collaboratively collect street level data, and we take it from any contributor any type of camera model and from anywhere in the world. So basically, this is a very very large platform. That operating in order to to build a joint representation of the world. And can you give more detail on how you're building that joint representation of of the world at a high level? Yes. So we have two very large building blocks. So leaving all of the beckoned aside, which I think you greatly covered in discussion with beaten of our our CTO sometime ago. So we have the two main computer vision of pillars we build on is freely modeling and object recognition or in particular semantics administration, and maybe we should focus on semantics mutation of for now. And this is basically so before we were discussing about image classification, you give an image. And to the machine tells you what's basically the most likely class or object category. It is showing for semantic sigma tation to task is different. The task there is given an input image. You would assign a category? Michael or semantic level to every single pixel in that image and for us. This means we are for example, interested in a very large number of street level, assets and objects or points of interest. You might want to call them assume, you're you're you have a dash Cam, and the stash comes on and you're driving towards traffic light and you have to stop because it's red. So it will cover a large field of you from your dash Cam. You would see maybe a crosswalk. You would see that the traffic light would see other cars. You would see a very large number of objects in in those images and the machine, and when you basically run semantics mutation on this image would try to recognize every pixel of every object that we're interested in. And indeed, this is something that map Larry uses a lot for a number of it services. The starts the privacy protection that we ultimately identified areas where you see human faces and. Or C license plates, and we blurred them as well used to extract math information, so we actually identify. Let's say this traffic light. Again, we would find all the pixels in this image that would form this traffic light. And with the second pillar that I mentioned before with the three D modeling. We would find a way to to actually chief position this traffic light in our model of the world in our freebie model of the world, and for in the meantime behalf one hundred and fifty two different object categories that we are able to recognize and we would start pulling out all of these map objects individually, and we will position on a map and make this data available. And that's what map lower is all about. Okay. So let me see if I if I can explain it accurately, you can tell me where I'm wrong, you've got people contributing images from their cell phones. So you've got just people taking pictures with their smartphone. You're crowd sourcing to d images of the world. So you're getting this large influx of two d images that people are taking from their phone. And when you take a picture from your phone, it can automatically geo, tag it. Like, where's your latitude and longitude in the world, which is not perfect, but you can get it to some degree of accuracy. And if you if you imagine just people taking random pictures from all around the world, and they're somewhat geo tagged maybe you can kind of derive what angle they're taking the picture from then you can take these two d images you can synthesize them together to construct a three d scene. So that's one of the things that you're focused on is taking all these two d images and synthesizing them into a three d representation of the world. And then another application that you just mentioned is the process of looking at those images, those I think you can look at them just as the two images, but you can probably infer. For additional information from the three D representation. You look at the two images you use object segmentation, which is another area of computer vision. That's rapidly evolving. We did a show a while ago. About objects segmentation where you can define what are the prominent shapes in this two d image. You know, there's like there's a square object here, let's draw bounding box around that and segmented out. And then maybe we can do some further processing on it. Now that we've defined that. There is an object here. She had this object segmentation thing that's also running. And then once you get the objects segmented out you can do classification on those on those images. So maybe if you've got a big scene of of a two d image of St. and you you run object segmentation across all the different objects in that scene. Then UCS stop sign. You see a press you see? Well, the computer would just see here's an object. A here's an object. Be here's. Object. See, and then you could pass those those bounding boxes to a further classification algorithm e say, okay, what is this bounding box. Here. What what information is in this bounding box in the computer might say, oh, it's a stop sign. So then, you know, there's a stop sign in the same age, and then you can start to work with using the segmentation, you can derive what's going on in the scene. And then you're building a three D model of literally what exists in the world. So you now have a three D model that you can explore together with a way of communicating to the computer. This is a stop sign in this three D world. And then you could ascribe later on or maybe you're already doing this. You could ascribe meaning to what a stop sign is. So that a computer could eventually understand. Here's a three D model of the world with this red object in it that happens to be a stop sign, and what a stop sign is it typically tells people to stop if they're driving now tell me what I. Got wrong in that representation of map. Larry. So the basic building blocks are are all there. So you really named them all the first one is the free model itself. So this is really you have to sequence of images that you would capture with our app if you download it or if you use their own Rick Cup capturing software, if you have this together with the signal, you would take those images, you would upload them to our servers, and we would run something that's called structure from motion and destructor from Oceana something that allows you to basically extract the freidy three-dimensional structure, the freedom of model based on the sequence or at least multiple to mention images by basically finding correspondences in those images. You would you would identify the same points. And then it would allow you to infer Afridi model of the world. And that's really something that's very important because this would allow us to tie together. This inflammation that we have in in a redundant way. As we capture S, for example, drive with our car and the second part where we basically take a detour to what you described before us. So we running semantic segments directly on the raw input images and the semantic segmentation as I tried to explain before is it would really label and assign the semantic label to every single pixel in the image, which is a large number of fixtures on this even on this small to fifty-six example that you mentioned before, but it will already try to locally find consistent segmentation consistent with what we see as objects on this image as we interpret from from a human perspective. And basically this sponge of pixels all belonging, for example to the same car or to the same traffic light. We would find a way to group those pixels and then together with the freebie model because. This actually came from the same data. We would know what the correspondences between the position of those pixels in the freebie model that we extract before together with this semantic interprofession from our semantic segmentation algorithms, and obviously there is some grouping stop involved, which I think you were referring to before as kind of detection mechanism what we would run our platform is actually some clustering algorithm and clustering together those physically pixels that contribute to this object traffic light again or as a surveillance camera. Whatever we're finding this will help us to really cheer position on the map. So the whole pipeline is really give us a sequence of images and viewpoint try to extract all of the relevant street level, assets and data and points of interest. That would help you if you have a an application as a self driving car to maybe find your way around a certain place. This prob. Mm-hmm. That you mentioned their structure from motion explain in more detail, what structure from motion is in how you're applying so structure from motion as I said before it's a way to infer some some free dimensional structure from from two-dimensional images. So basically, if you if you have to images, and you take them in subsequent way. So if you basically just if you walk along a certain path, and you will take too immature subsequently, you would very often find similar things in those two images or actually the same thing. Just just shifted by some motion. And if you would actually be able to identify the corresponding parts or features in those images, something like call nurse or other prominent points that they would find with some some kind of feature detector than you would be able to infer the freebie structure based on those correspondences that you would find why is this? This important to map like my understanding a map. Larry's today. Most of your image. Data comes from people with smartphone. Taking just a static image with their camera. Why is this relevant to map Larry? So we somehow need to find freely model right that we can operate in and this freebie model that we won't rented by corresponds to. It's basically a model that we infer from the real world. And what we want to do is we want to build a true representation or something like a scale model of what we have in the in the real world because we want to position we want to to your position all those member checks that were extracting from from a semantic perspective. And even if it were able to perfectly segment each image. If we're not able to basically assign kind of letting too long to in terms of achieve position to this identified objec-, then this would only be half the way. Right. So for to really want. To have this in our let's say, the most optimal way would be. If we had images from all over the world, right? If all those images would somehow show transitions from one location on one spot on the world to any other one. Then you would find a path through all those images and the three D modeling part structure from motion part if it would work perfectly, then this would allow you to basically extract one coherent consistent treaty model from all of these images. And if we Don on top can run all of these objects recognition tasks that we do including semantics and something that will come soon as also recognizing every single instance of a certain semantic class, then this will help us to really extract all of the street level assets that we care about and all of our customers care about in an automated way, right? And whether those images are coming from people with smartphones that are just taking pictures or people with smartphones that are. Taking videos or surveillance cameras that are gathering video or drones that are gathering video or self driving cars with some kind of module on top of it. That's recording lots of video if you can solve the structure for motion problem, you can take advantage of all kinds of different recorded image data and use it to improve map. Larry's view of the world. Yes. That's right. So so obviously, the the quality of the data largely depends on on the camera type of the camera and very often. Even though those Morris that'd be an smartphones today. Really extremely good ready. There's of course, the room for improvement, and depending on the image quality. We're also talking here about several types of distortions. So all things that you would in a perfect world. They will never encounter. But since we have basically data from any kind of camera. That confined out there all of that contributes to the accuracy and to the sort of quality of the dangerous out. And for example, if you go back to this structure from motion or to this freebie modeling problem, but he will have once we have those those features that you would like to identify in in matching images, you know, there's this reconstruction part where you try to solve and find basically that the camera posts and the freebie points and the two cameras that you find and an off these things largely depend also on you know, how well all of this data matches and eventually what we try to build. And that's something very tried to invest more. That's brainpower is to come up with models that can deal better with these two imperfect conditions that we have by accepting any kind of source of immaturity. And indeed we find of course, there is some some difference. If you have a. That's super expensive capturing Rick. That's being used to to capture images. Let's say at the very high quality as opposed to taking a very sort of. That's an older generation of a smartphone, which has maybe issues with the shutter of the camera or or other types of problems. So trying to align all of these let's say challenges, this is what we were trying to address overs. Well, what makes it an exciting company at least from an external perspective. And I'm guessing from somebody who's on the inside is the problems that you are faced with at this point to getting to map. Larry's vision of having this really richly defined three D vision of the world that people could query and they could build other applications on top of build self driving cars built drones build all kinds of things on top of a a structured labeled three D model of the world. That's really exciting. The barriers to you implement. Thing that that full dream product set the problems are are mostly incremental as far as I can tell it's like engineering problems. It's the kind of engineering problems. You wanna have it's like what is our data pipeline. Look like, you know, do we have enough storage space here, and we have enough memory here. Are we batching these models correctly? Are we training these models correctly, our costs under control like is the cloud computing infrastructure budget that we've allocated is that enough money to actually like afford all this computer vision processing are there any like real big scientific bottlenecks that you're worried about or do you feel like you're at the forefront of something really exciting. And it's just a question of implementation. I think this is this is a really interesting question because we're always trying to my team, and I were trying to to work on the scientific forefront. Definitely. And for example. One problem that we spend a lot of time on routine voice recognition problems in general and the semantics mutation in particular, and if you went back and couple of years ago, those models were just about to start working. And there's a number of let's say benchmarks data sets, you know, as a sign Esa. Scientists you start developing your mall you implemented you fail a couple of times. And if you're lucky and persistent enough at some point it starts out verging. Ideally, it starts working really well. And then you go with take your model, and and put it on those publicly available benchmarks. And if you see that you make basically a significant margin on what is out there. Then there's of course, always some kind of additional scientific value that you can add on top of this is it on how to get there in a more efficient way in a more computation really efficient way or also in terms. The front time in terms of let's say that the final output metric that you care about all those parameters. There's usually always room for improvement. The second part that was in your question was is it just an engineering perspective. I think there's a large aspect of engineering indeed, especially having all of these things run. It's kale run at the budget that you can actually afford and at the same time scale that that system in a way that you can basically handle any amount of data. Let's say any under under quotes, very large amount of data and make it all works together. So this is this is a really fantastic kind of engineering piece that mainly are back beckon team. And our computer vision team are are Soling while for example, myself and dive, you have more to privilege to really work on the research direction where we don't in or at least not the first consideration is can we bring that to the very large scale to us. It's more. Can we explore? Newfield some kind of new let's say inside for an existing problem or can be an doubled. Even better. Of course, from a research perspective, come of something that hasn't been done before from an application perspective. And this is how this whole field evolves. And how so many companies and universities and research labs are contributing to making all of this knowledge available and for a greater benefit. I think that's really exciting part, and I'm very happy and lucky to to sit threat in this field. Tuber as can be difficult container networking storage, disaster recovery. These are issues that you would rather not have to figure out a loan may show. Spheres. Coober Netease is a service provides single click coober, Netease, deployment with simple management security features and high availability to make your coober. Netease deployments easy. You can find out more about Mesa's. Fierce Cooper navies as a service by going to software engineering daily dot com slash Mesa sphere. May shows fierce Kuban as is our service heals itself when it detects a problem with the state of the cluster. So you don't have to worry about your cluster going down. And they make it easy to install monitoring and logging and other tooling alongside your Cooper Netease cluster with one click, install there's additional tooling like premier Lincoln d Jenkins in any of the services in the survey. Cadillac may show spirits built to make multi cloud hybrid, cloud and edge computing easier to find out how Mesa's fears Kuban edges service can help you easily deploy Cooper Netease. You can check out software engineering daily dot com slash Mesa sphere. And it would support software engineering daily as well. One reason I am a big fan of was fear. Is that one of the founders Ben Heinemann is one of the first people I interviewed about software engineering back when I was a host on software engineering radio, and he was so good. And so generous with his explanations of various distributed systems concepts and this was back for five years ago. When some of the apply distributed systems material was a little more scant in the marketplace was harder to find information about distributed systems in production. And he was one of the people that was evangelize again talking about it. And obviously building it in. In Apache Mesa's. So I'm really happy to have Mesa spears a sponsor, and if you want to check out macer sphere and support software engineer daily, go to software engineering daily dot com slash Mesa sphere. We're talking about a company here, but you have a research division map. Larry has a research division, you're leading that research division. Where does research end an engineering implementation begin what's the division of labor? How do discoveries in your research department make their way into the implementation department, so one of the very sort of nice things to have an in a startup environment is so ways are usually short. Right. So we're we're still below fifty people working in the company, especially on the on the engineering and research side, it's much less. And so if we find something that actually turns out to work on these benchmarks data sets that I was mentioning before including for example, or a very own mapoulo Revista status at which we appreciate a lot. Then we will definitely have the attention. From from our let's say more product, implementation and scale oriented team that will take this research and Billabong to to bring this into production as soon as possible. So the very nice finding again this in the startup setting this works like super in various in super smooth way, in my opinion. So indeed what we found inventory. Very proud of our our our very own semantic segmentation that say developments and advancements which also helped us win a couple of public benchmarks this year and all of this technology has gone into production. I think within a couple of months. Wow. That's pretty quick. So you have this this research department the back and forth between industry and academic, research and development. I mean, this it's been a long story in technology. Like, what is the responsibility of the kademi? What is the responsibility of the industry, or what's not not responsibility. What's the relationship like what's the push pole? And what's the value of these these these kind of cross cross cultural areas, like the nips nips nip has this place where where people can cross pollinate. What are you seeing in the kind of the the cross pollination between the academic world or the quote research world and the implementation world, more broadly? How much information are people willing to share? What are they willing to share? Is it more open is it more closed off? Whereas the proprietary secret sauce give me a bit of framing of that of that culture today. So I think there has been some kind of shift again looking back from let's say ten fifteen years to now I think what what used to be considered. As purely academic research is something that maybe Hess. Arrived more and more at the company research level, for example, look at all those large Silicon Valley companies. I mean, they all run their their research labs, you most of them, actually publish disseminate results and make them publicly available. Not only as a form of let's technical report or a paper, but also in terms of coat code that can be used under very friendly license. So also under commercial settings. I think the reason why this is done is is many fold. So one of them is probably. So there's a large number of people that that would maybe just like to stay in academe. Yeah. Because they like the scientific way of how they can start to develop new things how can how they can you know, experiment fail. Succeed. And you know, undergo all of these faces that you have as a researcher. And at some point if you if you find something you write it up you submitted to conference, and hopefully it gets accepted as a paper. And but those people have been as as the field has been growing, and as there has been more and more demand also from an application point of view, and in this is largely due to to deep learning that those things actually started to work and us to become more. Interesting. Also from a commercial perspective devils a much higher demand. All of a sudden for people with those skills, and if you wanted to attract those people that would actually have preferred to sit more in their economic setting if you offer them, let's say a great place in terms of, you know, half them still broken their problems and the outcome that they get is actually conduct will be translated into product are into some kind of commercialization and. If you in addition don't lack resources for let's say computing for structure or data or any other kind of ingredient that is necessary. I think that has contributed a lot to to make this whole community more open in terms of what is being shared. But also in terms of what can be used for anyone made available to anyone you also make money when you do that. But the people who the vault the vast quantity of people who are going to industry from the early academic world, the more that that happens the more it makes certain academics become really gyms because they are they become these partisan forces. You have people like lex Friedman at MIT who had started a podcast recently. That's really good actually MIT AGI or something it's about artificial intelligence. I recommend anybody that likes this podcast to check it out. But he's kind of nonpartisan. And so you you don't there is this is one thing. I I've been. You know, enlightened by since starting the podcast at the beginning of the podcasts. There was like why is there still academic computer science? Why hasn't this all moved into industry industry? You've got unlimited compute you make more money. You have these things that that can be put into products, but academia, is is politicized in its own way. But it's also removed from politics in certain ways because there are there's politic- politics. You just get pulled into by virtue of being at a specific company that you are immune to inequity Mia. Yeah. Maybe I would probably say that there's every field has its own rules by which you somehow need, you know, you need to understand you should understand if you if you want to participate in certain area, but maybe coming back to your other question. I think there's still a large number of open and unsolved problems and steep learning something if we talk about this if we still considered this mostly filmed. Mm supervised setting right? So there's the state that has been annotated by by someone. And then there's this machine that tries to find the optimal solution given status at trains, this model and spits out something on a new data that matches very well. Ideally, what has what it has learned on the training data? But this is a we're talking here about supervised learning, and that's a very narrow space of machine learning. If you think about you know, how much more data that is out there that hasn't been labeled because it's simply not feasible to label all the data in the world. I mean, there's virtually much much larger area that that should receive scientific treatment that people should come with smarter models. How to deal with those masses of data? So there's still enough work out there right now. I know we're running out of time here. There's a couple of macro questions. I have for you. I read this book recently. AI superpowers Kaifu Lee's book, which is really good. And it's about the implementation of artificial intelligence technologies mostly in in China at Chinese startups, and how the speed to deployment is faster in some ways. More efficient in some ways. Better quality bringing these models to market then places in the west and part of that is due to they have a richer data sets for a variety of reasons. Have you seen a difference in nationality across who was good at research versus implementation in computer vision? And specifically have you seen any ways in which China stands out as being particularly good at computer vision or just particularly good at machine learning, or is this more of a circumstantial thing. So I think I couldn't make very general answer on this. But my personal survey shin is that so vile. Attendance to these conferences like nips or to be PR is growing at the very large pace. I think there's a much larger crowd now, maybe from from Asian countries these days, I think there's a really large. Let's say cosmos of startups that's starting to build up there as you say the number of young companies that come from for example from China. They have shown outstanding results on many benchmark data sets and having those contributors. I think it's a matter of of many things engineering is very important having the curiosity and the kind of let's say drive to find new ways to find better ways of designing models of training them. There's of course, also a large financial let's say backup from for many of these companies so they can afford to buy a large cluster farms to to try out. Lot of things I think this is a very multifaceted dancer on this. And again in the in the particular cases, I'm sure that you can find let's say those very outstanding researchers and engineers all over the world. And but what this definitely true is that there's a strong rice, especially from people from China and from companies in China these days. Yeah, I'm looking forward to hearing more about this area. Because computer science research has been this this world of cross pollination and information sharing and positive some information sharing. It seems like with computer vision you have this opportunity of almost unimaginable value gain value creation that could be made that is not zero sum. It's not like if China gets really good at computer vision that takes away from us reaping the rewards of really compute. Of really good, computer vision, the the value creation that could exist. It's just is just so unimaginably large, and it makes me kind of optimistic that maybe we could have some geopolitical cross pollination at least at least between scientists and to some degree. I think we're seeing that. But I again, I'm not an expert on this. I hope to learn more, and hopefully interviews and people in in the future. If anybody out there listening has suggestions for people to interview. Okay. So we're like at the end of the time. But last question, I'm a little less optimistic about the spamming of our internet with fake images in fake videos, particularly the fake videos because somebody I talked to recently said that we really don't have good mechanisms for detecting these deep fakes. And now the fakes are obviously not very high quality yet. And I I've seen some naive solutions to improving deep fakes detection, like, you know, how rapidly the fake video of Trump is blinking. It's not accurate with the humans that you can detect that this fake. Trump video is fake by the blink. Blink rate detection, which is kind of interesting, but we're entering this world. We're going gonna have spam. Versus anti-spam on the front of of what is real video? Do you have any any thoughts on on this area? Or are you as concerned as I am? Or are you less concerned? I think this is a very interesting question. So from a scientific perspective, I would say that there's probably as many Virk STA tried to reveal or identify. Let's say fake videos or videos that were artificially generated some of them might be let's say more successful than others. But I think with every paper that comes out to to generate some some kind of this fake material. There's for sure at least monitor paper that will try to identify. If there was a fake video or not in the way, we just this is actually being used. That's definitely a completely different story. So I'm sure that you can that there are ways to used as manipulated data on very very mean. And and for very let's say reasons that that are not forming a greater benefit for the society. So we should society being general be more aware of what's going on. And that you should at least. Think twice before you start. You know, just taking something just because you see video take it for granted. And this is an education process. Also needs to start and happen such that, you know, maybe start learning more of this possible from a technological perspective. But also be more aware from you know, how we how we take information until we deal with that. All right. Well, thanks for humoring me on something. That's totally unrelated to map. Larry, it's been real pleasure learning about computer vision from talking to you. And you know, I'm sure we can we can do more material in the future. I know we didn't we probably didn't dive into map Alaria as much as as we could have. But I wanted to just get your your take on a bunch of different things. So so thanks for coming on the show. Peter been great talking. Thank you very much for the invitation. Continuous delivery. Frees up your developers to ship code independently of one another go CD is an open source continuous delivery tool. And we've partnered with go CD to deliver some quick tips about modern continuous delivery. Today's tip is to visualize your workflow. You always want to be able to see the status of builds across your pipelines. Visualization can help you step back and see the bigger picture of your continuous delivery process. You're continuous delivery tool should help you visualize your workflow, I found that showing the workflow visualization to new hires that are unfamiliar with continuous delivery. Can also be quite useful for explaining how your release process works to find out more about continuous delivery checkout. Go CD dot org slash SE daily. Go CD has been a sponsor of software engineering daily for more than two years and we've done LA. Lots of shows with the team from go CD. It's a great team or proud to have their support. And if you're getting started with continuous delivery yourself checkout. Go CD dot org slash SEI daily.
Ghanas Financial Stocks Likely To Bounce Back Post-COVID
"The affiliate podcast shows the stories of multifaceted Africans. One episode at a time, the podcast aims to uncover the untold stories of modern and millennial applicants based in various parts of the world. Each episode gives listeners an opportunity to learn and experience conversations that showcase who they are and global perspectives in our ever changing world fish also listen and subscribe to the. Athlete podcast on spotify or wherever you listen to your favorite podcast. You can also follow at athletes podcast on all social media platforms. You're listening to the news at this hour on Africa. Business Radio, according to the head of research. At States, Bank Alex abondoned the poll performance financial stocks on the Ghana Stock Exchange for the has been generally attributed to a Combination of poor public sentiment, the fallout from the banking sector reforms, as well as the impact of nineteen. This was made known by the head of research at Databank Alex Barton Jesse Financial Stoxx Index, which reflects the average performance of shares of listed financial companies witnessed a significance drop the ball fifteen percent from January to August seventeen, twenty, twenty miss expanded the. While commenting on the performance of listed financial companies said the low ship rise presents an opportunity for investors. He however expressed optimism about the performance of the financial stocks are this year's general elections and that wasn't news at this time. When Africa Business Radio, you can't continue to listen life online at ww Dot Africa Business Radio DOT COM or AFA amicable APP. I am Rachel Chih Gender. Thank you for listening.
Md. Nafeez Al Tarik Most of the Time the Price is Right
"Should've had frosted. The Mark it should down some more due diligence under stand why the market is why stop is falling with large volume. So if I do the proper deal diligence at that time brew up that good found that that asset quality was faith or compatible where they are a problem that could cut my position and the stop loss. Hello, fellow risk-takers in welcome to my worst investment ever stories of lost the keep you winning in our community. We know that to win an investing. You must take risk but the win big you've got to reduce it. My name is Andrew stance from ace knots investment research, and I'm here with featured guests fees altering no fees. Are you ready to rock? Yeah. I'm betty. All right. Well, let me give the audience little background the fees is head of research investment at city brokers LTd in dot com. Bangladesh, he has eight years of research and investment experience in the equity markets. Bango dash any provides his research to foreign and local institutions prior to working at city brokerage. He served as chief investment officer Asia tiger capital partners asset management LTd where he was responsible for a couple of mutual funds. Valued at about twelve million US dollars in twenty fifteen in two thousand sixteen the flagship fund generated accumulated Shula tive outperformance respecting a benchmark for about eight percent. He also had experienced an expertise in asset liability management having worked for treasury department of eastern Bank Limited and as an assistant vice president in Royal Bengal investment management company. Ltd the fees holds an MBA and a bachelor's degree from the university of Dhaka faculty of business. Studies department of finance. He's also like me. Me a sea bay charter order. Unlike me, he is a certified financial risk manager in his spare time like me. He's an entrepreneur running a financial coaching institute where he provides training in the field of financial modeling equity valuation risk management. Advanced excel skills for CFA an F RAM candidates. He also has been a guest lecturer at the finance department at a local university where he's taught financial engineering and advanced financial engineering courses in BB, an MBA program and last he's also a c s a society, Bangladesh, volunteer in that's awesome. That's my area that I enjoy so much as volunteering in have actually been to duck to meet all of all in tears in the past. So the fees take a minute fill in any further tidbits about your. I think you covered Joe adult in a days anything to add for. All right. Well, now, it's time to share your worst investment ever since no one goes into their worst investment thinking, it will be tell us a bit about the circumstances leading up to it. And then tell us your story. Yeah. I t- before mentioning by worst investments, I would like to highlight the macroeconomic context under which I made the mistake. So bad girl story would always be very helpful to the listeners to understand the scenario. So my worst investment actually to bless in two thousand thirty as if I go back few years, we have seen the stock market. Bob will in the cousin in on luggage. So contract the negative impact of Lois financial crisis that plastic. Do puzzles seven may jobs for this a win for expansion to policy so they cut interested to low allowed the broad money will do an unsustainable high level. Yeah. In two thousand and the Royne at the broad money girl. The went up by fever sent the private sector created drove the window by twenty two percent Decem time. There was very lenient Martin Linden regulations. Frank. Daca tool flown for one topic Wiki so all these things are true of the stock market to announce sustainable high level the stock market. The Ben index away doubt by sixty two percent in two thousand nine and a three percent in two thousand day. Then we have seen a stop big trash into those in in December and is congenial into custody evident two thousand twelve I joined the investment industry right of their stock market crashed in two thousand eleven mitt these very gloomy environment to start my career, but I can't timing might career. So in fact, the market window and more than fifty five percent humiliatingly into council evident thousand jobs, so after being sold off by motivate if I percents in depositor dean, I think the market has offered a lot of bargain opportunities. So. Independent. Thirty had many stocks went acquisition mega lot of money. The two thousand turned in was very difficult year for Bangladesh economy because of the political in stablity, we had an election dealing generally do causing for two thousand thirteen we have seen a lot of blockage or the call by adopt and also and that video in infect into those eleven twelve interred in the Montreal to tighten the metric all to contract inflation and also may be a little bit of. So in fact, into council Giles lead the market solo by fiber said many banks actually got hit in the banking sector where solo by more so many bands when trading below their book value per share, so particular Bank, which was my worst investment private sector Bank, mashed on back. Emeka had a massive collection duty video the asset quality of the banking sector. Started drinking in depositi as I understood that the quality of the company has degraded and the fundamentally the company was very weak. But I thought the price had commented even more. So the stock went down to apathy our share when I took the position we had earlier. And the first mistake was assuming that the depressed price to boot Valerie show as an indicator of metric value company. I was Teela route Jamil lists that time. So part of that mystic was due to my experience. The stock went down by more after buying it. So the stop mowing down by another fifty percent when it took the position. So but Luke air the Bryce actually seen that. I was missing something. Maybe I was missing something by new. Amok? It knew something that I did. So I should have had trust the market should have down some more due diligence under stand why the market is why the stock is falling with large volume. So if I do the proper duties at that, I grew up that good found that that asset quality was orbital. What are from the ankle cut my position and the stop loss since I was a very inexperienced lists having two years of experience that time. So I did not have the right relationship to go for the management discussion. Or rightfully experienced understand that at the low Bryce boot Saturday, she actually was a trap. The book value was overstated that dives is the company did not begin revision for its non-performing loads. So I got some of that have been, but I was looking for information that actually supported my hypotheses. I shouldn't listen to the contrary of bananas, and I should have a mouth way. Equals migrant farm mission by us and probably some Gunston which made me more confident in I became very overconfident. Bet abyss stock will also fat even to the company's shown consecutive quarterly losses. The storm was living down one day to Dhaka eleven point five seato by share. Remember, we had a cost value of fifty dug up a share. So eventually we took turn percent loss on that stock. And it was extremely extremely painful. I learned a great lesson from that. And I never made the same mistake later. It might carry a fantastic. Well, that's a that's a real good story. I like the fact that it highlights investing in banks because that's a different animal if you were to summarize for the listeners kind of what did you learn from this experience, what would be the less? I think is like. There are four different types of mistakes that had done in twelve the story. So number one is I did not realize that that some stocks that have been looks very very cheap, but they achieve for the right reason, the stock was collected massively. But he was extremely overvalue before that ambassade quantity deteriorated massive deal the Bank. I did not realize how how bad it could be number two. I should have trusted the Bryce action. So I could cut down my losses with a stop it any shale Persson loss and Broadway would do the more due-diligence Billy understand that in order to generate outside-half to country, but we have to write as well. So sometimes the market is ride. So I decided that the price action that times I should have looked at the price. Actual mauguin. Fully I should have done brokered. Due-diligence man, probably Belk odor help reduce my losses. Number three, especially when I've seen that the price action that is something in the market that I don't know. So I should have initiated a management media should have talked to the management. Maybe I talked to settle the analyst may be I talk if one of his students that died mentioned that he had a management meeting, the quality of the management is very or and he rated negative devil. The stop, but I did not ban offense should read because of my involvement by with Louis heavily position. And the number four, I maybe democracy Nettie as well. In two thousand thirty the interest rates are very very high very interested with more than percent Persson the time at this event in the banking sector net interest margin at we together quality banks prosecuted again on the fall in the coming years. We can see the doctor base I did not expect that interest in dries to that high level. We the benefit of hindsight, I should have had zero exposure. To Bank is a and from nicer more way to fight him ten year treasury Bob's while will you've really thought through. I'm very impressed about how you've methodically thought through that. And I think if you share this with your students, you really can help them understand about risk management. Let me summarize some of the takeaways that I got from your story of the first one is this really comes down to a failure to properly assess the risk you talked about asset quality you also talked about the idea of maybe executing some kind of stop loss. But you didn't and one of the other other ways that we manage risk is the sizing of a position, right? So, you know, yeah, we like to stock, but how big is that in our portfolio in those three points that I would go through his forest the risk side of things. I think the other thing that many people don't always think about it. And I was a Bank analyst for my. Ten years of my career is that a banks operate on a sliver of equity and the result of that is that if the if the assets, meaning the loans that they've given out if they were to deteriorate just a little bit. Let's say ten percent of the total assets all loans at a Bank has goes bad that could literally wipe out all of the equity of the Bank. And that's the reason why banks trade at low multiples. They generally always do. So even in a bubble time. The multiples of the banks will be lower than the multiples of the overall market. In fact, the Chinese markets in interesting run right now because some people may say well Chinese market looks little the cheap Chinese A-Shares. But remember that thirty percent of the market is banks, and they're trading at very low multiples. If you strip those out, you find that the underlying other companies are not that cheap. And then also, you know, you mentioned I I like what you talked about about the macro environment. And you gave us a good setting. And I think it's really a great. Investment can go wrong because of the macro environment. And I think for the listeners that's a really great lesson to keep remembering that you have to think of the macro environment. I think a lot of beginner investors. They go in and think I'm gonna read some books on investing in learn about how to value a company, and then I'm going to really apply fundamentals to build a great portfolio. Well, the macro environment can crush you. And the last thing that I'm gonna talk about is there's a TV game show when I was growing up, and I'm gonna tell you the name of it right now. And you'll understand why I'm saying it was called the price is right. And that was the name of the TV game show. I used to watch a lot when I was a kid in. The fact is is that most of the time the price is right in the stock market. We've got a lot of people looking at the market, and that's the paradox the price is right. But as you said in order to be a successful active fund manager at some point you've got to make a bet that the price is wrong. And when you make that bet you really really have a high level of research that you gotta do. And I think that's those are the lessons. Is there? Anything you'd add to that. I think the key suggestions from these mistakes did there several key suggestions number one understand that there are a lot of value traps in the markets don't forty net trap. And number two. Is you already mentioned that most of the time? The prices arrived to look at the price action is and you have to very and this like obedient outweigh the market. Looks like Mark low something that internal number when you are investing in banks. You have to have an extra due diligence on the board the covenants the management that accounting policies, the risks managing elicits, the lone rider policies provision bonds and do the extra team that you have to look at when you are investing medicines on appointment spatial died of research compared to other manufacturing up is listening to the Pierre analysts and fund managers patients who have a contrarian bit that you have. So you should have a misleading bay at ancient to their hypoc. Understanding that you are human being the human being have a lot of biases banish him off feely haven bias if in my case, I had a few we will bias as a I listed those dogs. It's like confirmation bias on racism buys endowment, bias, Google configures as status quo buys in my guess is like it was the endowment and status quo. That they picked me a not at that time. And also all this unique to talk to the management to get a vibe about the management. How one of the people who had that data what incentives on fix interests of not especially when you was issued is better be gift to extract eulogists, and the last gestion is that in investment asset allocation is the key is extremely she decision. In fact, you now see economic it talks a lot of team currently and making. Mental issue, and to do that you have to understand the macro environment alongside don't have been experience in time to understand that at the wine. So I graduated moved over the years dose of understanding the microbes lab. Well, I can say that you are serving your students. Well with all the work you've done to analyze in think about it. So let's wrap this up with the last question, which is what is your number one goal for the next twelve months latching in the next few months. My number one goal is to the as you know, I have a flu type job any mice bedtime may each my students about a in in the next few months. I would like to put a greater emphasis on my work life balance because of the personnel married with a daughter, so she is a four years at three months. So I want to have more quality time with her because this is the time, I should give more attention. So apart from my work at I would like to have a better work life balance in the next two months at this moment, I feel a little bit. Imbalanced? Yes. And that's the great thing about four year olds is that they let you know when you're out of balance because they cry in these cream, dad. Yep. Okay. Well, that's a great goal for the next twelve months. Well listeners there you have it another story of loss to keep you winning to find more stories like this previous episodes and resources to help you reduce your risk. Visit my worst investment effort dot com, and as we ramp up fees. Thank you again for coming on the show. I know it's painful talking about are losers. But our listeners are learning to win as a result. Do you have any parting words for the audience? I think I think investing is a passion. So they'll do all this mistakes at mistakes, eventually the teachers we have to learn by doing mistakes, but we have to keep keep in mind that we draw Nick to make the same mistake every tax. So is to make mistakes it had to passionate about it. And I'm sure in the next few years. I'd make a lot of this. But the only way we can improve his learn from our mistakes enough DIGI. Yeah. So I like that what I oftentimes say is in my own businesses. New mistakes are okay. Yeah. Old mistakes. Repeated are not well that's a wrap on another great story to help us create grow and protect our wealth, fellow risk-takers. I'll see you on the upside.
#120 - AMA with Dom DAgostino, Ph.D., Part II of II: Ketosis for cancer and chronic disease, hyperbaric oxygen therapy, and the effect of ketosis on female health
"Lou everyone welcome to a sneak peek asked me anything or AMA episode of the drive podcast I'm your host Peter at at the end of this short episode. I'll explain how you can access the Ama episodes full along with a ton of other membership benefits. We've created, or you can learn more now by going to Peter. T MD DOT com forward slash subscribe so without further delay. Here's Today's sneak peek of the. Ask Me Anything episode. Everyone welcome to part. Two Are Ama series with Dom Tino. As reminder, you'll note that this interview had been scheduled for a very long time, and just when it was about to happen, I had to go to Mars spaceship that did not contain zoom setup, and I was unable to be a part of it, but both dom and Bob Kaplan. My head of research graciously agreed to do it in my absence, and so you will once again be graced by the presence of Bob and Tom Speaking instead of having to listen to me in this second episode, Bob and Dom dive deep again this time, really focusing on the effects of Ketosis on various chronic diseases dumbs work with hyperbaric oxygen therapy, and its applications as long as. As the applications of key toasts on female health and performance, this is a topic that I know very little about outside of some reproduction and also something that many of you have been asking about and frankly there's just not enough information out there on such topics, Donnas, an associate professor at the University of South Florida, where he teaches at the college of medicine and in the Department of Molecular Pharmacology. Physiology he focuses on neuropharmacology, medical biochemistry, physiology, neuroscience, and neuropharmacology. He's also research scientist at the Institute for Human and machine cognition to assist with their efforts towards optimizing the safety, health and resilience of warfighters, astronauts locally important to note that while dom is answering specific questions. And scenarios is not giving medical advice. Everything in this podcast is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute the of medicine including the giving medical advice so without further delay. Please enjoy. Heart of the AMA with Dom Vegas. How. We're going to switch gears to key toasts and disease. And the first step is cancer and a lot of questions around updates on press pulse therapy since a couple of years ago when you're on the PODCAST, you've mentioned the press in the paper that he did with Tom. Siegfried talk about that a little bit. Have the say. I was not formally trained as a cancer biologist or cancer researcher, just sort of fell in my lap, so to speak I guess around two thousand ten, and maybe I went into that on the the first podcast and I have to say I'd been extremely lucky to have brilliant students come into my lab, and that has made all the difference in the world because the other. Professors they just get students that in their kind of stuck with them for five years, but I've got the upper echelons like the top of the top students in the program. I always have and not only brilliant. They've just have a genuine interest in in this topic, so they were able to basically be the engines behind a lot of the research that we did that started laying the groundwork I think, or the groundwork was already sort of laid because people were. Were already doing Kita Genyk Diet studies like Tom's safer, who's been on the podcast before? But we sort of picked it up and took in other directions, and we kinda worked on that press pulse review that sort of encompasses this idea using I. Guess what you'd call Ketone, metabolic therapy or therapeutic doses and other modalities to compromise tumor, growth and proliferation, and that weakens the tumor and about a solid tumor to be more amenable to other modalities, which could. The one thing that we experimented on years ago, one of the first papers we put out with the Keita Genyk Diet and hyperbaric oxygen therapy. And there are a number of reasons why they are synergistic, so being in a state at therapeutic doses suppresses insulin signaling, which Dr Patrick as it lowers glucose availability to the tumor. It elevates ketone bodies, which as an alternative fuel cannot be readily utilized by cancers, most cancers as a source of fuel, perhaps anabolic processes, but they're not a good fuel source for cancer cells, cancer cells, and they also do. Do things like they impair antioxidant pathways that the tumors us to defend itself, and a tumor is resilient, because it has up regulated and dodges antioxidant pathways by high levels of Bluetooth Ion, so the Pinto's phosphate pathway for example generates more glued on in cancer cells, and that is being fed by glucose, so if you reduce glucose availability, inhibit insulin, which in which enhances like houses, so you're suppressing Hollis's. You're creating a scenario. Where if you give in oxidative challenge with hyperbaric oxygen therapy, you can potentially kill the cancer cells. So this is what I observed using a hyper-baric laser scanning conflict will microscope, so we adopted this technology for use inside hyperbaric chamber for Department of Defense. An office of Navel Research Related Projects on CNN's oxygen toxicity. Manifested seizure, so we are looking at a variety of cell types and one cell type, curiously had a tremendous oxidative burst, and we are measuring superoxide Anna. With di Hydro idiom so with hydro thenia mistaken up into the cells and then reacts with Superoxide Anna Informs. This cat, which binds to nucleic acids and lights up, so the lighting up inside the cell as self light up. That indicates reactive oxygen species are being produced. And when I started looking at the first sale was u eighty seven Glioma bus dome cells, and these were taken from like a forty, some odd year, old globe Esto a patient, and now it's cell line. The lot of people use. The intensity of the cell indicative of superoxide Anaheim production skyrocketed above and beyond anything I've ever seen before, and then the more hyperbaric oxygen and gave I saw the mitochondria starting to disappear. They lit up to because they have their own DNA. It might a Condo superoxide. I think we went on to look and explore news various mitochondrial specific superoxide detectors. But the cell started dying and I didn't see that in other cell model systems, so we figured something was going on there, and this is looking at cells, so Dr Angela Pau. Who is one of my first PhD students? Study the Ketogenic, Diet with hyperbaric oxygen delivered at two point, five atmospheres of oxygen sixty minutes three times a week. And that protocol combined with a modified ketogenic diet proved to decrease tumor burden and extend the lifespan in this animal model of metastatic cancer, the which is the three model that Thomas Safer developed. And I think it's remarkable model of metastatic cancer was so now. There are many different things that you can combine in press pulse therapy. So, I think the idea would be to from a press perspective going back to the Glucose ketone index in that paper. If you just Google Glucose ketone index. and. Maybe I think it was nutrition metabolism Tom. Safer published this. And really laid out all the science to support that a glucose ketone index, the lower that is ideally in the one to two range below. What if Possible Getting Glucose ketone index, which is the level of glucose over level of Ketone in Milly Molar concentrations? To one or two. That sets the stage slows tumor, growth and proliferation, and makes the tumor more vulnerable to what I mentioned hyperbaric oxygen therapy, but other cancer specific metabolic drugs and we really want to try the pediatric. Kinney's inhibitors that Luke can't liaison started listening to last podcast fantastic podcast you guys did with him. We've been using to DRC. Glucose, which is basically also inhibits heck's Aquinas and inhibits glycolysis three. Three Bruno. PYRO something. We went use. Leave US DCA metformin. We've done experiments with vitamin C. High Doses of vitamin C.. And that was a project of one of my undergraduates. Publish that Work Biden CSM, interesting effects, and then there's the Sglt two inhibitors that were also interested in to. There's all these things out there, but we haven't really put it together into therapy were just. You need to test these things sort of an isolation and then combined certain things together, but how they all work together that the press pulse review that we published was more of an idea, and it was sort of the preclinical stages, but there are a number of papers coming out. One just came out this morning in science communications. Looking at it was vaulter. vaulter Longo study looking at fasting with IV vitamin C., I believe, and it showed in chaos, basically tumors that are aggressive and very hard to treat. That had the K. rats mutation he had remarkable effects is a mouse study. I believe in I. Still It's on my desk. Reading has just came out this morning. I saw it just showing remarkable effect completely nontoxic. Nontoxic combination of fasting with vitamin, C. Intravenous Vitamin C, and there was also another paper that came out, just came out like a week or two ago, metastatic Roma female, she was thirty seven years old I believe very difficult to treat cancer, not a curable cancer at all pretty light, like maybe fifty or sixty kilograms stage for a and she did fasting. Fasting Genyk Diet than fasting I have to look at all the protocols that were used, but I think they use prednisone to forty milligrams per day, which kind of high, but come to find out that can trigger a toast and cancer cells, but they had like a ninety percent ninety six percent decrease in tumor burden with this therapy and it was like using. Non Toxic pros was some drugs throughout some immune based therapies, but it was basically water fasting with Ketogenic Diet and. Water fasting with different immune based therapies, so it's another paper my desk. Tom Actually emailed that paper to me, yeah. I recently read it and. It was remarkable and one thing that I noticed the authors pointed it out that the woman had she had a couple of episodes correct. Pronunciation Myasthenia Gravis so she had a couple of those cases, and it looked like during those two cases that something. The remark was something about a remarkable decrease in her intake, food or oral intake, and on the second her second episode she lost about I think it was about fifteen kilograms, and like you said she was already. Let's say she was like one hundred ten pounds. She went down to eighty pounds and the second I. Don't know if it was a second imaging or one of the later imaging her tumor went from. It looked like whatever you WANNA call it the tumor burden. They're measuring it and cubic centimeters. It slowly progressed was pretty stable. It looked like an I. WanNa say it sounded like and if you look at. At, the pictures it looks like she had an extra long in terms of the mass that you could see right in the sternum in that area, so it went from something like six hundred cubic centimeters to i. don't know if it was like thirty I I went on Google and try to figure out. How does that compare to like different sized balls? Balls and it looked like it went from like football to a golf ball, or there's something to that effect where it almost seemed like the Ketogenic Diet I was wondering it's almost like paired with this idea of choline toxins. That kind of thing that she had this episode, but essentially I don't know how long she was fasting for, but if she lost. Lost fifteen kilograms during that time, and it also looks like our two merges was being wiped out over that period of time, but there's a few case studies like that, too. That I know that Tom's been a CO author on I don't know if you mentioned it in your podcast, or has he yeah his like a person, triple, negative breast, cancer and Somebody with Globe last Doma but I wanted to come back to something to you mentioned vitamin C. You mentioned IV. Vitamin C. and I know the previous podcasts was. Eye Opening when you talked about radiation, and then perhaps up to eighty percent of its effects are the reactive oxygen species that something like radiation can induce, and it sounds like hyperbaric oxygen somewhat similar, and so then you think the tumor cell part of the defense is the up regulation of all these antioxidants and a lot of people will think about vitamin C. Logo. We'll wait a minute. Vitamin C is an antioxidant I. also think that at doses it can be a pro oxidant is a part of why you think it might be effective. A Yeah I'm so into the pro accident. Effective vitamin C down to the Reebok's pathways even think about as an antioxidant anymore. We use really high concentrations, so that's right so hyperbaric oxygen, so it's well known that radiation therapy kills cancer cells by to ninety percent just through Ross generation, maybe ten at most twenty percent, just by directly nicking the DNA like Double Strand Nicks but you're generating reactive oxygen species than they are toxic tumor cells, so the efficacy of radiation therapy is proportional to the Po to the tumor, so if you oxygenated tumor and then radiate it. You're going to do a lot more damage. It's directly proportional to oxygenation. So tumors tend to grow in outstrip their blood supply, so they're pox Iq so when you radiate them, they become resistant to radiation because their Hypoxia, so if you were to have hyperbaric oxygen therapy during radiation like targeted radiation, we know that that would dramatically sensitize it like this is well known and accepted, but what isn't really firmly established. It's if you have hyperbaric oxygen therapy before or after radiation, there be like say you have hyperbaric oxygen, and then you get out of the Chamber and go have radiation. Peeled the tumor will drop, but you'll have a residual elevation of reactive oxygen species for hours after so, and it'll be somewhat site specific increase in reactive oxygen species because various mitochondrial abnormalities. I should say. There's a debate whether the Mitochondria damaged, or they are not damaged I am one hundred percent certain that the Mitochondria are abberant in a way so that they are disrupted in a way. That they overproduce Jn reactive oxygen species in response to an elevation, the Po to at the tissue. So this is well documented. And it occurs because there's defects in the mitochondrial electron transport chain. There's a lot of free hime available that free iron that's available drives the Fenton reaction to remember biochemistry or Organic Cam said the Fenton reaction is when you have a lot of free iron. It drives the production of hydroxyl radical with like a super reactive oxygen species, and that can kill cancer cells very dramatically. So the combination of hyperbaric oxygen be radiation IV vitamin, C. or if you were to take radiation out of it and just hyperbaric oxygen vitamin C can be a potent pro oxidant therapy, so another interesting thing about die. Hydro scorebig acid is that it uses which is the oxidise kind of form of vitamin C is that uses the glucose transporter to get inside cells? So if you elevate vitamin C. or scorebig, acid into milly molar concentrations in the blood, using an ivy route, if functions as glucose antagonised, so you're not only inhibiting glucose transport, and you might actually get some hypoglycemic symptoms out of it so I did when I had IB vitamin C., so you are delivering a glucose antagonise. That's also. Increasing reactive oxygen species in cancer cells, because to me have a lot of free iron. 'cause there's a lot of hime. Cells or chronic cells are dying in tumors all the time, just because it's hypoc sick, but the proliferating so have dead cells and live cells, but the important thing is that there's a lot of hime iron. Available out of free iron, so reactive oxygen species is like really really high in vitamin. C is really of driving driving that reaction in addition to the glucose antagonise effect. So. We're pretty enthusiastic about vitamin C.. We've done quite a bit of work. We need to publish more published in abstract form at a super awesome undergraduate Janine di Blasi who she did her undergraduate with me, but then went to Oxford to study cancer radiation, and now she's at moffitt cancer. Center under a different mentor, but I would love to reinvigorate her honors Undergrad project and start doing more vitamin C. Work. But yeah, that's a really important component. Now we think to press pulse concept of cancer, management. And I think this is probably part of the original press pulse, but I know that Tom's done some work. Subsequent to that I. Don't know if you're involved with that. You're aware this as well where he talks about might a conrail substrate level phosphorylation with glutamate, and so he thinks that the tumor cells are i. think that that's actually that's not controversial that you'll read papers. If you look up pubmed and you type in glutamate addiction tumor cells. You'll see a lot of papers. Come up on that and that they tumor cells quote unquote love. To use like the teleology, but they're addicted gloomy. Remember he did a paper recently. He has like you said The v M three. CLEO blessed Doma mice. Yeah, yeah, it's a globalist Doma that metastasized. So it's transformed in a way to become highly metastatic, few checked into the flank than you even have brain mets, the lung liver, it is the most deadly animal model of cancer that I know about, and so it makes it kind of a fantastic model system the study so I remember. Tom told me if you can cure cancer in this model system. Then you've cured cancer and we're still trying to do that because it's such an aggressive form of cancer and We just published a paper I author was. My Graduate Student? He just graduated Andrew Coo Nick and he demonstrated in that. It's an amazing model to study cancer CACHEXIA, so not only is it vm three model? Probably one of the best models have metastatic cancer, and we need way more research into metastatic cancer. Studying just a consolidated tumor whether shrinks is not really that informative, because people really don't die of tumor, deny of medicine invasiveness. invasiveness of the cancer. This is a tool to do that and so encourage cancer researchers out there to the US this model it's really good. And now we demonstrated through the work of my former Grad student now and interconnect that it's an amazing model, the best model that we know of in my opinion to study cancer Cachexia, which is a really important under studied phenomenon of cancers. It's funny. I was going to mention the same thing that what I heard I. Think this is actually an Italian. I can't remember the guy's name and talion researcher, and he may have told us to Gary Tob scary shared this with me where he said he's talking about the field of cancer in mice and said if you can't cure cancer in a mouse, you need to get out of this field because it's so easy. And then I would think to like Tom Mice, and Tom's like I'll give him the VM threes you try curing cancer in that mouse, you come back to me and you tell me how that is, but Tom. He did a paper. It was twenty nineteen I will be able to pull. This goes nature communications and he combined his Kita. genyk Diet Calorie restricted Ketogenic Diet, and he looked at, and he's done that study before where he looks at just a ketogenic restricted diet versus standard Diet. And then he looked at Standard Diet, plus don which is glued amine glutamate antagonist glued amine inhibitor. Yeah, inhibitor antagonists. Six Diaz Five. Nora L. loosing something something the fact. And it's one of those things if you look at Kaplan Meier curve if you know how those work where every death of a Mouser, an organism or an individual's going to. Tick the little plot down towards percents, survival, two zero and I looked at. It's probably the first figure in the paper, and he has the mice that are calorie restricted, Ketogenic Diet, plus Don and it's like this purple line, and it starts right at the top at one hundred, and it just goes all the way, just a horizontal line, none of the mice or dead. I dismember emailing him saying like. Did you follow it up? I don't know why this reminds me. Of Seinfeld, there's an episode where they're almost on an empty house and they wanted to see how far they can take it. Yeah, test driving a car. And I just thought. Tell me the end of that story. I'm not sure how long they lasted, but his Kaplan Meier curve went out forty days, and there's no desks, and if you look at Standard Diet I think this is pretty typical that the mice after planted there between about fifteen days all the mice are dead with a standard diet, and he's made some headway with Akita genetic diet, and he says not a cure all it's not. At least it's not curing cancer in these mice. And then he added this glutamate inhibitor, which is pretty interesting. I think that would probably be his. Push back on. This idea that a lot of people talk about the cancer cells having normal Mitochondria I think they're justification is that it's consuming oxygen, and so it's that you'll see. Oh, CR on consumption rate, but I think what Tom is arguing is that yes, maybe taking an oxygen, but it's not producing ATP via ox Voss. It may be that the tumors, not just getting. Getting energy from the Warburg effector aerobic fermentation, but it also might be fermentation gloomy and remember full disclosure. I sat in on Tom's class twice at BC. Kind enough to let me till. I thought it was great. I taught that class. One time I gave a departmental lecturer, said in that class, which was really fun. I of course director for a kind of. Metabolism in signaling course and we have We went over Tom's papers and stuff, but it would. The whole course was not on cancer, but it was fun. It was a similar kind of course. There was the best courses so I'm sure. It was a lot of very spirited discussion I'll absolutely it's pretty brilliant what he does actually so he has his cancers and metabolic disease and big question. I think that actually Peter Gets and I'm sure you get as well as with all. All the stuff that you have going on your writing grants, you're doing this or doing that. You're teaching. How do you keep up with the literature? How do you stay abreast of everything? And he essentially has every one of his students come up with a paper that tries to essentially shutdown. His ipods is cancer, mitochondrial metabolic disease, and so it's a actually a brilliant way for him to keep up with the latest research and the things that how you might be willing himself. It's pretty fascinating. Obviously, he's very passionate about. Journal. Club is a good way to do that. And there is no lack of papers out there and brilliant scientists out there who basically are presenting work showing that cancer is perfectly normal in the mitochondria perfectly healthy in cancer cells. So I think there's serve a happy medium. We know that the Mitochondria transformed in ways to enhance bio synthetic processes the expanding biomass the tumor. Those needs need to be met in. The, Mitochondria transformed into ways that achieved that goal. And, of course, glycolysis is elevated tremendously, including me a license to drive a lot of the anabolic processes, also ATP generation to to some extent, so targeting glued mean dawn is a very great strategy in theory, but dawn is toxic so immense a dose dependent thing, but we need to come up with better molecules that could reduce glutamate levels in the blood and tissue, and also just function as gloomy antagonised. Yeah? He mentioned I think it's mentioned in that paper that giving dawn on the standard diet at least again. We're talking about mice. It was the city. I think was a lot higher. than the Ketogenic Diet and I'm actually I'm thinking about if you have any thoughts on either radiation, hyperbaric oxygen that if you're doing either one of those interventions, do you think that there's a benefit of being an estate Akito says while you're actually receiving either intervention? Yeah, absolutely, thank you for listening to today's sneak peek episode of the drive. 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Andrew Stotz Dont Let Panic Drive You Into the Ground During the COVID-19 Crisis
"And basically the news was that the Thai government could no longer defend the baht and the bought the currency of the Thai government was going to collapse and we all could see the collapse happening in the market and bought at that time was twenty five baht to US dollar and by the end of nineteen ninety seven it was at sixty baht to the US dollar hello fellow risk-takers and welcome to my worst investment ever stories of lost. Keep you winning in our community. We know that the winning investing you must take risk but the wind big. You've gone to reduce it. My name is Andrew Stocks for May Stotts investment research and. I'm here with featured guests me. I wanted to take this time to talk to you about this. Current coverted crisis. It is a time. That is very scary. I have lived through many different economic crises over the years and I wanted to share my story of loss. It wasn't my worst investment but it was my worst personal moment. It was about nineteen ninety-five. I was riding high as a stock market analyst in Thailand. In fact I have been promoted to be the head of research of company name. W I carr which was the number one foreign broker all was going well then. A friend of mine came nineteen ninety-five Dale and he said. Hey we should set up a coffee business in Thailand and we had the idea of setting up a coffee business originally. It wasn't going to be a factory we're going to buy coffee from other companies. Other roasting company package it and then sell that coffee on but when we found that we couldn't find companies that would be able to produce the coffee to our standard. We decided we'd have to build a coffee factory. Well no problem. I was making good money and had already made a lot of good money and between myself. Dale Dale moved to Thailand and we set up. Coffee Works and set up the factory. We started our sales in nineteen ninety six and then in nineteen ninety seven. The financial crisis happened. I remember walking into work on the first day. The first working day of July in nine hundred ninety seven and basically the news was that the government could no longer defend the baht and the bought the currency of the Thai government was going to collapse and we all could see the collapse happening in the market and they bought at that. Time was twenty five baht to us. Dollar and by the end of Nineteen Ninety Seven. It was at sixty baht to the. Us dollar later stabilized to about fifty and and eventually come back to where it is now which is about thirty or so what that meant was that companies that had US dollar debt. Were in serious trouble. Because they didn't have enough money to pay it back. The economy started to collapse and when that happened. Everything got bad. Eventually we could see that our plans for business disappeared and those plans had been to sell too many companies as the economy was expanding in Thailand. It was a very exciting time but instead are sales dried up to almost nothing yet. We still had a factory in people working in that factory and we still had a sales team trying to sell and we were trying to sell but nothing was coming in and to make matters worse in April of Nineteen Ninety Eight. I lost my job working in investment bank. All of a sudden we had a business and a factory and a lot of costs no revenue and no employment for me to feed the cash needs of the company. We made a decision dalen. I had lived together in a house in Bangkok and we made a decision. Have to move out to cut the costs and we have to move into the coffee factory. We move the sales team out of one of the rooms that had air conditioning in it. 'cause factories not tiling because it's burning hot we move the staff out of the Accounting Office into another office and we put two beds in that office and we went back to school. It was like going back to college days. Two beds one room a bathroom outside of that room and that's where we lived every day. We saw no new customers come in and existing customers disappear and of course no income and there was very little hope that I would get a job again in the financial industry because everything seemed to be decimated by the collapse not only in the collapse in Thailand then we saw Indonesia collapse and Malaysia and many of the other countries in Asia got hit this crisis in one thousand nine hundred seven the Asian crisis never really hit the US later in nineteen ninety eight there was a Russian crisis but that crisis barely hit the US market so here. We were in our factory with no hope. It was a very depressing time to make matters worse on one August Day in one thousand nine hundred ninety eight. Dale and I had woken up. Factory was empty. No workers there. Nothing going on kind of depressing Sunday because when we looked out the window it was pouring a tropical rain outside of Bangkok and it was just a depressing day. If you could imagine the smell of rain in a tropical forest basically where we were with this factory because we were out in the boondocks in this factoring we were sitting there. It was already a depressing environment and I got a call from my sister. Kelly and Kelly said that her cancer had come back and the doctor said she only had one month to live. Could I please come home to see her? When I hung up the phone Dalen I looked at each other and just cried. It was the absolute bottom that August Sunday of nineteen ninety eight. A professional bottom an a personal bottom all seemed loss very soon. I had to get an airplane and get back to see my sister. Within one week of arriving in America she had passed away. I had one week to spend with her. We had the burial the funeral and her three daughters and her husband. They're mourning the loss. I stayed for a couple more weeks with her family and then I had to come back to Thailand. I came back to Thailand completely depressed and defeated by this time. Dale had decided that we better not live in the factory. We should move into a apartment nearby. That's as low cost as possible because the factory the environment of the factory would eventually break us down so when I arrived back in Thailand in August after having lived in the factory from April to August. We had a little apartment a tiny little apartment. The apartment cost one hundred fifty dollars per month for the two of us to live there and basically I was quite depressed coming back and I wasn't coming back to anything exciting. The key thing is that Dale is an iron man and Dale decided that he would just keep doing the next best thing that he could do the next right thing to do to continue the business. Many many times we talked about the business and we agreed that this is an equity investment of myself and some other investors in Dale and we all knew it was a high risk investment and we can walk away from it and lose everything. But we don't need to feel ashamed about that because failing and business is not illegal fraud. Lying cheating is definitely illegal. Dale was a very honest and sincere man and he continued on and slowly by nineteen ninety. Nine I got a call where I got a job offer to work for. Bank things. Were starting to come back and slowly very slowly. Coffee Work started to recover and Dale kept making the next right steps. We made mistakes along the way but today we're a company with more than one hundred staff and a robust business that is celebrating twenty five years in existence. That's something to be proud of now. I'm going to ramp up my story by saying what lessons did I learn. The first lesson I learned is that when economic crisis comes this not a lot that you can do to change it. You've got to buckle down. Keep your costs low. Maybe move in with friends. Come up with ways to cope with the situation because it isn't gonNA turn around quickly got the first thing. The second thing is don't cheat lie steal or do other things that some people do in times of desperation. The third thing I learned from it is that sometimes small businesses at trapped. You can't go back. Because we didn't have anything our assets nobody would buy the assets of our company and we couldn't go forward because what we found. Is that no matter how much work we put into cells? We still couldn't increase the sales of the company at that time. Sometimes you just have to walk four and I think that my main lesson that I would say if I thought about what one action would. I recommend listeners to take to avoid suffering the same fate I would say that the lesson that I learned is take it easy when a crisis comes. Don't let panic and fear drive you into the ground you can make it and you can make through it. It's just GonNa happen slowly and step by step. Don't cheat or defraud people but if you can't pay just tell them I can't pay right now last question. What's my number one goal for the next twelve months? Well I want to say that. I remember the story of a hospital in Thailand Camera Hospital. It had expanded into a new hospital building. Did it had a finance with. Us dollar debt and that hospital building had just opened just before the nineteen ninety-seven crisis. What that meant is that they had a hospital building. That was empty. Nobody was coming to it. It was paid with. Us dollar debt. They were in serious trouble but they came up with the idea that the currency is weak and hospitals. Whoa class. Why don't we try to market to people outside of Thailand? Who could afford to come in? Pay In use our services twenty years later that hospital now generate sixty percent of its revenue from foreign tourists and medical tourists. It didn't come because of some brilliant thinking it came from thinking during an emergency. So what is my number one goal for the next twelve months? I want eighty percent of my company's revenue to becoming from my online courses and other digital assets. Alright my parting words to the audience. My parting words to you used to take it easy. Stick close to the people that you love and the people that care about you. Stay calm and look forward to a great future because things will turn around and that's a ramp on another great story to help us create grow and most importantly protect our wealth fellow risk-takers. I'll see you on the upside.
#84 - AMA #10: Low testosterone, hypothyroidism, building muscle (and preserving it while fasting)
"Hey everyone welcome to the Peter Attiyah drive. I'm your host. Peter Drive as a result of my hunger for optimizing performance health on jeopardy critical thinking along with a few other obsessions along the way I've spent the last several years working with some of a successful top performing individuals in the world. And this podcast is my attempt to synthesize what I've learned along the way to help you live a higher quality more fulfilling life if you enjoy. Enjoy this podcast. You can find more information on today's episode and other topics at Peter at MD DOT com the puck into another edition of. Ask me anything once again. I'm joined by my head of research and my sidekick POB Kaplan in this episode we go really deep about three things. There's no speed round but I think we make up for it by just the depth rather than the breadth so the first thing we talk about his testosterone replacement replacement for men's specifically when it's appropriate related risks benefits the laboratory values. One should and shouldn't care about so apologies that this one is a little more gender specific Pacific. I didn't think we've also already covered this on the female side. So this is a very male centric view of testosterone replacement therapy second thing we jump into his thyroid replacement therapy and just in general thyroid hormones. How they're produced? How the diagnosis of hypothyroidism is made in my opinion how that differs from maybe the standard way the people think about it and all sorts of other tential things around that and then lastly we talk about exercise and specifically we talk about exercise and how it relates to nutrition with respect to building muscle now to be completely clear and I disclosed this fully in the episode? I don't consider myself an expert on muscle building bodybuilding. Anything like that. You certainly wouldn't want me as your coach if you were training for such things but at the general population level which is where I consider myself to be. I think I hopefully know enough to add value here so so anyway we talk a lot about the role of fasting caloric restriction up and down and muscle accumulation versus loss of muscle. We also talk about tougher G. I. G. F. OR INSULIN. Like growth factor and tour in the process so without further delay. Here's a number ten as reminder. Ama's are for subscribers. Only if you're not a subscriber you'll only be able to hear a preview of the AMA here to become a subscriber to have access to the members only podcast feed as well as other other benefits such as detailed show notes member only discount codes and the products. I believe in you can visit Peter. T. A. M D dot Com forward slash. Subscribe the podcasters. Welcome to another. Ask Me anything I am joined by. Peter Tia this is Bob Kaplan appear how you doing. I'm doing good Bob. How are you doing? Well thought we just jump right into it. Start off with some testosterone. Wow No foreplay foreplay. Go for it. Yeah a lot of questions around testosterone the essential question is are you a fan of testosterone supplementation as as men age if so to what targets. Well I mean this is sort of a tough question. It's very difficult to answer these questions in isolation because they're kinda dependent on individual patients bear with me. I suppose as I kinda give us allegedly regardless of what. You're talking about manipulating in medicine. He should ask yourself the question. What is the desired outcome M. I. manipulating this variable because I believe it improves longevity if so does it improve lifespan? Does it improve health span both neither one more than the other testosterone. Let's it's just now evaluate stoskopf replacement through that Lens. which is what are we believe it can help with well? I'm not really particularly convinced that normalization of testosterone will improve lifespan. I could be wrong on this. There are certainly associations that would suggest that that could be the case. For example low testosterone is not only associated with prostate cancer but is associated with more aggressive prostate cancer. Her by the way I think that that's probably not saying that. Low testosterone causes aggressive prostate cancer. I think it says that if you have prostate cancer and a low androgen environment it is likely to be more aggressive. We could probably spend an entire images debating the merits of Testosterone Astro replacement therapy. But I in spending a lot of time in this literature. I don't see a clear and obvious case that you one will live longer longer because of it and again living longer by definition means delay the onset of death at least as it pertains to chronic disease so then I would sort of turn the table a little bit and say well. Is there evidence. That improves health span. Well health span again. Has Three components one of them is cognition. One of them is sort of physical exoskeleton for. I still got to come up with a better name for this one Bob. I hate saying Exa so skeleton because it sounds like I'm talking about a grasshopper or something like that. I always think terminator okay. Even better and then the third one is emotional health wellbeing happiness etcetera. Now I think the testosterone can have a pretty significant impact on two of those three which was the odd man out. I'm not convinced that testosterone has an impact on cognition. This has actually been studied once. And we'll link to the study in the show notes. It was studied quite recently. Meaning the last two years is study habits limitations but it did not suggest that testosterone replacement therapy was improving cognition. Now I know there are a lot of people out there on a physicians out there who prescribed arrived here T- who would disagree with me on that and would say that empirically. It appears to maybe. That's the case. Maybe it's not but as a selling point I generally don't on say two men normalization of your testosterone is going to improve your memory again. Who knows what the placebo effect can mean in the situation? But I I I. Generally by and large. Don't think that that affect is there and if it is there. I don't think it's strong. Let's go to the area where there is absolutely no denying the benefits of testosterone replacement therapy. which is the improvement of and or maintenance of lean muscle mass strength conditioning recovery from exercise? All of these things they they all fit into this bucket of. How does your physical body work and there is no doubt the testosterone? Improves those things. The magnitude that those things are improved proved however is not obvious is not entirely predicted by the number. So let's come back to that Bob. If you can remind me 'cause I wanNA really go into that. But just for the sake of completeness. Let's turn our attention to the last piece of health span which is sort of happiness and emotional health contest Austrian improve those things. I'm a bit embarrassed to say. I don't know how rigorously this has been studied but the effects would be difficult to miss. If you've ever treated patients with low testosterone then respond favorably which is to say you know mood can get better libido tends to get better and maybe those two things alone alone are worth the price you know worth any risks that are going to be associated with testosterone because someone who's Libido is shot who now all of a sudden has desire to have sex again and intimate and be all those things that alone could be a benefit to a person's relationship and therefore to a person's life so in summary. What am I saying? Four things we think about right living longer improving cognition improving physical body improving emotional health I think to with those three probably are impacted. Positively by testosterone. I think two of those three are probably less so yes. There are lots of ways that having more muscle so mask could also delay death so notice. I said chronic death when I was talking about death but of course they might be the case that testosterone replacement therapy can improve muscle mass ass and functional strength. They can later in life prevent accidental death. Which is probably the fourth leading cause of death when somebody is old enough? Okay I said way more about that than I wanted to and I have not answered the question yet but do you bob any questions about everything I just said. Can I go to the next part of this now. That sounded good. I know that We looked into testosterone. Did some research on it and I remember seeing the the endocrine society their recommendations for TRT for symptomatic men with low T. and etta following purposes which sounds like be pretty much nailed them. All improve sexual function improves sense of wellbeing improve muscle mass and strength and increased bone mineral density. You can find all this information and more appear Attiyah. MD DOT COM forward slash. podcast there. You'll find the show notes readings links related to this episode can also find my blog at PTA MD DOT com. Maybe the simplest this thing to do is to sign up for my subjectively non lame once a week. Email where update you on. What I've been up to the most interesting papers I've read and all things related to longevity science performance sleep etc and social? You can find me on twitter. Instagram facebook all with the ID Peter at md but usually twitter is the best way to reach me to share your questions actions and comments now for the obligatory disclaimer. This podcast is for general informational purposes. Only and does not constitute the practice of medicine nursing or other professional healthcare services Mrs including the giving of medical advice and note. No doctor patient relationship is for the use of this information and the materials linked to the podcast is at the user's users own risk. 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Hyun Song Shin On What Central Banks Have Learned From The Crisis
"Hello and welcome to another episode of the thoughts podcast, I'm Tracy, alloway? I'm Joe Weisenthal. So, Joe, one of the really interesting things about our current economic situation is that we basically have a recession that's been induced by policy I'll be not necessarily economic policy, but by policy in general this fact makes understanding this moment in the economy very bizarre. It's not like anything that we've ever seen before in part because of exactly what you just identify, which is that a lot of the slowdown that we've seen in economic activity was completely by design, and it's hard that of any previous comparison that really works as an analogy. Yeah exactly so along with this policy induced recession. We also have the fact that the economic contraction has been much much stronger or starker than we've seen in recent years like I think plenty of people have pointed out at this point that it's probably the biggest stock to economic activity that we've seen either since World War Two or the Great Depression, so eclipsing the great financial crisis of two thousand eight definitely, but the other thing that goes along with that I get. This is what we're going to talk about his. Because so much of the slowdown was bad design and obviously was all. Done by law I, mean people naturally change their behavior response to the virus, but so many policy changes were by designed to slow the spread of the virus. We also saw a sort of near real time policy response to that. Because leaders policy makers were recognizing that they're going to tell people to stay home. They're going to tell people to not travel and so forth then the economy automatically along with that need to lot of support. Right Oh, we can argue whether or not central banks were sort of the grownups in the Policy Broom in this particular instance, but you're right. We are going to talk about these central bank policy response on this particular episode. We have the perfect person to do it. Someone who's been on all thoughts before actually the economic adviser and Head of research over at the Bank for International Settlements Hyun Song Shin Hyun. Thank you so much for coming on it again. The votes by. Vaccinated. So I should just mention that a lot of this conversation is pegged to the most recent report out of the BS that really describes both the depth of the economic contraction that we've seen in recent months and also the policy response. If you just sum up. Twenty Twenty Chroma policy perspective. What's What has struck you the most? What stood out? Well. On a defining moment for the globally. The I think we've never seen anything like it. Is. The three big shots rolled into one on the below. It. It's a health by. Then, he said it was also the economics of stall. That was used by the well-balanced, but also. The rise in the changes and. A And then. We have the. Form of financial crisis back in Mauve. Financial System as a gay throws off the. An adviser. To try and unfreeze the finances. So obviously one of the advantages, arguably that policymakers had going into this crisis was that in the last crisis central bankers did a lot of innovation in terms of coming up with new policy tools to ease the strain on the financial system. How much did that help them? Being able to build upon the work of what was done in two thousand and eight and two thousand nine episode of what would you say were the i? Guess he policy innovations this time around that are brand new tools in the tool kit that central bankers now can theoretically. Reach back towards if needed. That's a very good question. I think one big difference between. This year. Back in two thousand they was in. The banking sector The financial system was the episode of the crisis in the bombing of the author. Of the traction of the. vitals system. Different this time round is the shot came wrong from outside? and. What that meant was the the remedial measures also be different now. I, think the same set of tools. The the US two thousand that again. VERY USEFUL IN A. Of the. Facilities Will Really Show of the just the the. Then But I think the difference. This time around is A. Really Halmi around something, the banking system refused. To reach those. Receiving at the receding. Something's. For the banking system, the central bag has daughter leaders all intervention when you get extend. To the banks, you can use your authority as the supervisors. They're all our diary levers that you can use to alleviate stress. This slide around the people who really ought shop were rating visuals and small business the. Only soul, that cash flow is the dry out on the issue. Need groceries need to? Sensual spending. Enough happy old. What we need to do this time of. Fiscal on round. was. Beyond the tools to he ha- So, this is a point that actually wanted to discuss with you, so it feels like central banks are pretty good at solving the quantity, all bombs you know they can extend short term credit to sort of bridge, a certain gaps between revenue and expenses, but it also feels like central banks aren't necessarily that good at solving threats to solvency and in the current crisis. Arguably solvency is a bigger issue so. With the challenge facing central banks when it comes to liquidity versus solvency, and what can they do on the ladder? Young announced the radio address think. We can say where the end of the cute face the face Early it's expressing. In five longest less. because. I think we did law the in the immediate use the bass. But we did see market. in income audible so through McVeigh's intermediaries like my. Issue this time round is how get the financial results is equal At the at the. End of the of the show I think we we saw. The news the Uninvited Nation of volume you've fiscal. The fiscal visited the role. Of the very. In Star proposed tax of. Magnitude the three announcements in August of the over the in the last few weeks, and then you call that guarantees and funding ski the all of a sudden voter minorities of. that. Though just today something like twenty two percent of the these knee Nevada It's much smaller emerging markets. is three. Boss another three percent of the guarantees. Again later, but these you has been having to get the money those in need. quakers near I think we've seen a bit of diversity new chapters in. The. Painting the provide A. LICENSED System I think we did see is that those countries have payment systems? Way Can get the money. Down the line those in greatest need, also best disgusting the process. In the most efficient way now we as you said we all now. At initially stresses as Pau the wheel of. Potentially Eerie when a will see lull Banias of businesses on all these. The limits of the just lending to. Pity clearly we will get into that kind of role although the. Even full fiscal what you need to do that as A. System that can Zule the additional financing? Online offerings of release the bond market. will suspended. The system on Uneven Keel you need. A pretty. Moving voted so I think it's still. Tonight's. Food. has to go to the fiscal. Mole. This is really key thing and we talk a lot about central bank independence, and you hear that term a lot and I think one of the things that I sent at the the meaning of that term has changed so that at one point it was like okay. Central banks are going to be beholden to political pressure, and they could fight inflation, even if that's not popular, but I feel like lately that Central Bank independence mostly means A. A technocratic institution that could just move really fast while politicians debate things so central bank could turn to switch in implemented new policy politics just doesn't move at speed. How much is the the success of the central banks really been about that just the fact that not that they're doing unpopular things that they're not beholden to political whims, but just the fact that they're designed to be sort of outside of day to day real life electoral politics. One of remarkable is around is how quickly the fiscal? Move Amusing, the speed with which these this is where it is. A. Difference in speed didn't follow I'm Outta. Love was grass in the financial markets, the with the. As. A. In multiple quickly, but I think in terms of independence a key issue here is the when the center is role in concert with the fiscal sharpies. He is the back of doing this in this. All is monitoring the mandate. UNROLL A. Dating Policy. To. Leading independent is about. That issue a bolden. Policy Goals to Sava is other did like fiscal stability? I think. We can think of independence in. An optimal. We have to think about buying Abic Institution. That has to. Awesome out of the do derive, it's far. Busy thraw! As long as the the monkey policy mandate. In front of mind. Is improvised shoot a bunch of imagination the. As. Sorry but just to back up for a second. Can you maybe explain the difference between what central banks are currently doing? When it comes to buying securities from the market, versus what people call direct monetary finance? So I think. There's a tub in cold fiscal. Which is the idea? The monetary policy actions all subordinated to. that. If you'll, you'll somehow behold to. Insisted objected and. To two. Go directly in agreement. That could be over fiscal. In, the, medicine, for banks, Of Event by the by the laws that I. Got In central. From engaging in in prime buys. The dividing line gets a little bit more. When you're intervening in secondary markets, you'll, you'll law. By of ball in the market, but then it becomes more of a kind of technical position, I think the days intention with you today. To the resolve, financial stability metro, a working well. You, all preventing a all changes. In on yields on these aw all! Of the amount of again. The key thing is the the dimensions should be. With you woods eventual. This game Alexa. That'd be a temporary wet. Know in March. During the peak of the Hammock of course one way to characterize what happened was we saw essentially an entire run on the corporate system? That's why there had to be this massive intervention. The dollar surged about nine percent in the course of two weeks between the ninth of the twenty third, which imagined probably one of the fastest largest moves in history. As you say, we don't really know what's going to. To happen, economically we don't know. Fiscal authorities will do their part to keep creditors alive to the degree they need to, but did the actions that the central banks took particularly the Fed, in backstop, the corporate bond market, setting up these even more aggressive swab blinds with other central banks around the world. Will those theoretically prevent us from seeing another similar sort of wholesale run on the system regardless of what happens? With the trajectory of the economy. So I think what we saw. Was, the was actually very distant from August soul in some states in two, thousand, eight, thousand eight. We had the editorial. The prices are on the bag system. It was the stresses the backing system of the leveraging of the. Rule of funding Interconnected drove the dress that this time we soul stress very marginally in the market base system as say the we saw it in over. Balls Donna. Funding is so central to the functioning of the lovely from ballaugh it goes. Spillover! Emerging markets and Did. Was Away of asset of the fable way you could be viability against lateral. I'd also. Rue the. Lines again classical. Buy. Bags. You alleviate distress in the in the market as well so we'll go through that initials as I can rule out another. But I think it seems for the moment we have. We have gone over that initial accused. But I think we have some lessons this time around. How? The funding, market. Schulte markets for. Funds. A on the tracks. The joint credit lines on the banking system. I think we. We managed to sell without initial white well I. Think one thing that a bit. Of Hopeful as The mangams this. was always the by the initial shop the days of Stress Ma. Emerging markets is said well the. Emerging market level. Markets. Come back by storming. Sunday's a testament to the resilience the emerging market far. Off. Both accumulation united reserves also wean themselves off the Thala. based instruments of the borrowing. The increasing financing themselves through. Currency. Often. I. Think that's been a very lesson the I wanted to ask you about this. Actually we have seen emerging market sell a lot of debt in recent years, some in hard currency I e US dollar denominated in some in local currencies, and there's a bit in the most recent. Report where they talk about the idea that currency mismatches have basically been shifted from borrowers to lenders, I e to foreign investors so. Considering the most recent experience and the economic crisis where we did have a lot of currency disruptions. Do you think? Investors are going to be more reluctant to fund emerging markets going forward especially if they don't get the same kinds of returns that they've grow new student singers. Wanting we of declaring. The in the sovereign law, though in the emerging markets of involves. issues around as says of these us is in the currency so respect. We went to actually pass the. Euro original sense, a cool of the idea of imagining hours they will. After borrow in currency I. Think we really other that of what we've seen is emerging market governments these have been able to borrow a domestic policy to the extent, the eighty walking Kearsey. Of. That doesn't actually Guaranteed the whoever is low Kasey clubbing boggs will be able to hold onto the your stressed. may the of manager the has a buddy of these. Bombs. Other breaks neck again All merging the WHO Appeared stressful, heightened conditions at your own risk, appetite will as well. As the things that the would. Of all all that one and A Symbol, across the whole way investors you could see. Set. This is the kind of. The we have to watch out for the OLO the. Government's. In able to borrow. City investors may be dollar-based investors. Will Your other? Obligations. OSCEOLA ISIL to beneficiaries in Carson so unless you somehow hedge beforehand when you go into these moving market the. Constables, who stupidly investors dumb? We will have a mismatch in the investors longview than the. Degree, this is thus Claus comes on the. Pressure but the lesson here is. It's not Enough Justin Borrowing Messing UNSEE? You need to think about how developed they. EAT acquitted of market. Investors. State now in hospice, says investors I think they. That have been A. Specific During the height of the crisis by MOV there was a game. That's what. MESSES came back in. Fact whether were full the March Episodes there is still a the. But I think the lesson is. Yes, you, should you can? You can increase its borrowing domestic policy of exchange. Right Madison Law because exchange right? To off fight against losses investors. It's really invest as behavior To. when you try and look ahead will. You know you're talking about the liquidity demands on investors I mean that got so intense in March and we. We talked about this on some prior episodes. Even treasury holders olders of the safest. Asset class the entire world. Even they got into squeezed particularly a relative value hedge funds the Fed had to step in to provide liquidity to that market. Is that a situation that in your view will now that the Fed has gone there to eat liquidity strangers there that that is the type of quantity strain. That's not likely to come up again now that we've seen what the Fed is. I'm willing to do. I think the division was the do while Specific! Issues of Zion traitors will viable. because. Your shades of There's low Against View than you will. On wine, a widening the spread of the jewel of the. Defendant was the. directly. Pushes the the directly? The divas also hat. That was Quite the law that. Will be siles. Tall this. Strenghtening. The banks rule so trying to. Of those zone pressure. Market. Came together. In March I think we've. Seen the resents the intervention, not that period Paul's. I think we also lessons along the. Insoles, of Brian to. Sandy trays Pittsburgh I. saw the potential. Of Reversal A. While this is still something that we need to keep a close eye on. I. Think it's because the treasury market. Is If you like the coolest of the. Morgan is the benchmark. He gets. The market. Well. So the I ask is often called the central banks bank I'm just wondering. Is there anything about the policy response that we've seen over the past few months that? Surprised you when it came to central banks. Spicier we could. We could wind up on that. I made earlier this line. Of the really welcome surprise was how quickly the fiscal volumes were able to. The putting plays very large fiscal packages. Very quickly is still took. On for that to reach those most in need on the payments. The. Central three a quiet. Old To keeping the system. Working whilst. These very roll out to. But in general, didn't how unusual at how presence at the the? Process is. To. Be using. The best full of. How. These things. Before they happen, I try not to make things. Wanting the is very important to say. Is You initially equal? Vision recovering. Is. A suspended animation can just. Install. Offer a few weeks the combat. That wasn't the case. In retrospect. Because the economy is collection of individuals it is. Relationships that we. Estimate of what could think about even for one of the history of. The, a very complex web of interconnections. Staying literally. Away. Way All phases of the destroy. active relationships. You are destroying the fabric of law so. From the very beginning was Revia. Wanted to make sure the as well as flattening the mortality mall all individuals you really needed to. Preserve those, Those. Complex web of interactions its connection, so the once you emerged from its can then restart the economy on something like the old the relationships, otherwise once you dissolve is. You really all stopping from way while it takes such a long online establish these this web of relationships. You'RE GONNA. Take a very long time so speed recovery is going to be A. Slow, but the the PAWSOX. Going forward is Having preserved much of the social fabric as possible, they will come kind when you now then need to think about which the ones that should go through a By proxy. Should do you in a way when you can do away from? Aggressive where fools to show violence of I think that still needs to be done. Aberration. It's been a very connected I would. On the pump deformities, but it's not just enter by the. Food! T! t method with the fiscal. I WanNa ask you about something. That calls back to the last time we had you on the podcast, and that was about the centrality of the dollar and the dollar and global trade, and we talked about this sort of decade of dollar, strength and sluggish global trade hasn't been prior to. This crisis wasn't a good decade largely for emerging market. So far we've seen obviously nothing that's really shaken. The sent the foundations of the dollar, and of course we already talked about the huge flight. Two dollars in March has anything. That you've seen over the last few months. However change the long term future story at all. Is there any reason to think that we've sown the seeds in some way for sort of new currency or new trading order sort of in the medium to long-term. Not Berry mind is the. Is Not just about the strength of the United States is also. The FAFSA system. Is is a web all. Kids. and. Tracks all dominate involves. A this sets up. Is a great of action? It's a cool nationwide over where everyone else is. is the right thing in US dollars than you. saw the following. Convention of the IT IS USABLE Nation Day. So. We'll of fast is really trae financing. Mutually support each other in that respect I think. The actions of the Fed is playing around with those slaughtering than also the the recall arrangements the decision so rollout this time wral fee. Of being be. Is Vast these actions while the the stress conditions area? These house back now over the very very long term. Maybe. Some shifts I think this is A. Historian. Say. Centuries the Mideast. While they of change, but in the. Future. So I Still. All the oil to the but So one of the the shots of everything that we've been talking about is basically not only will there be higher indebtedness. For economies, but also the you know arguably with quasi MNT or more fiscal stimulus in general, there's going to be a tighter grip from governments in the public sector. The private economy. What does that mean? Going forward for economy's going forward. You basically anticipated my question. We were both PTR. A very good question. I think you know. One very interesting a five, and this is something that I mentioned. The one thing is the. Is have been able to roll. Very fiscal. By three on the funding, huffy measures. Another toll set the funding in guarantees. Emerging markets, it's been false Mola The The guarantees in funding. Is like Interesting. Why there is not difference in the. Incidence of the covid nightly that the walls dissidents days now. We see Latin America of the very often I think it's the like shop from. The panicked though. I think have to search full. The reason in how much the market is willing Zoll into the governor that the has I'm also the market in the past. The. Offically issues can. Incentivize finance the fiscal expenditure through monitoring violence. Emerging markets emerging markets of a very long. When don't strike do this. Let's strike to use monthly financing. In a very aggressive way with find ended typically, exchange rate is going to be on the pressure and. Try and find spending. By, taking on a reserves so. Commercial that at the back. is going to be and. Where commercial bias all the? Holy They will the dollars in? Very shopping appreciation of domestic artsy. And we have a very shopping precision. Is that what you see? Is An invasion pretty quickly. Off the usual trainable 's flation. Leads to. More. Expensive ingles and salt is mole. The wants you have a very short position. Shapes, the confidence in the microsystem, the this leads to a more generalized in a big call in. Uncertainty. flation. This is how you would see this kind of episode of mind, refinancing. Ending up. Version Camry. Knowing this this. Emerging markets tend to be very cautious about pushing a monetary financing. Instead they tend the through my much more wrong. Governments ball financing through the through the conventional way, but now try and do the of question is on. Appetite is their models. zoll is new issue than this is. This is going back with. Original sin, and a about the appetite for global investors unless you have a very lost domestic investor based the. Pool of Goebel occupies. mudgee modeled nobles. Of, they've anticipated the, there is a limited amount of physical space at the CIA. Although. Of that could use the money. they think that the discretion is the. is the more the strategy of this is. What's will? Now I the the VOL's days. And a fuel central bank that actually the Garden Reserve Johnson. You have even most. But I think in the end. Don't think the. They're not constraints on the. Justice. Those constraints on what we very visible. At. The. At the medicine of these even as long as these expanded is all. I mean in the discussion. You have in the US i. find that discussion, a little bit parochial refinements, thanks. Very much kind of a a US discussion. When in fact the Senate is not utility Senator Bob? Event is a very very special center by which is used the. The preeminent. So it's always useful and. My who has to just? Drian through the emerging markets just to see there have. been. you know there is a biology the? Constraining its consolidated constraining. Office by? The government together, but it's still there it's. How. Well. The record show that I have not the one who brought up em-empty on this episode whether there is a whether there's no constrained whether the. Wherever the constraint is it does appear that rich countries. Wealthy countries do have some more space, arguably substantially more space. We know exactly where the line is regardless they do have more space than they used and as you mentioned in. Earlier on the discussion that it, the probably the surprise has been the degree to which fiscal authorities moved extremely fast time around. Do you think in the medium or short term that we're likely to see them? Push or explore the limits of that space, or do you think that they'll sort of very quickly? Retreat to okay. That was a one off. We're not going to keep doing this in. Really. We're going to let the task of macroeconomic stabilization. Go back to the Monetary Authority. ON HOW THE ECONOMY EVOLVES! Goes By. Doucehy arrive in recovery from I think. The the regressive another bastion will have been a wall. Scenario. Let me go. Back to something more like mobile. But if we see. A second way we'll see the pundits lingering. Regain. Dommage of and I think we may need to other into these of course, and all that I think remains to be seen. I think we just have to be prepared of all. Well! It's always really great having you on the podcast. Thank you so much. Thanks Tracy. So. Thank IOS great. So Joe I know I was the one to bring up an MT in this episode, but I only did it because I was preempting your question no. I wasn't I I wanted to get out about 'em or anything like that, but I do think that they've questioned of. Is this going to be a shift? In terms of our fiscal policy, makers feel they really have responsibility to boost the economy, or will they quickly go back to saying you know that's the central banks job. I, think is one of the biggest questions period in terms of thinking about what the economy and various asset classes will do in the short medium term. Yeah I agree I mean also one of the things that we're probably going to learn from this crisis, just how much mark fiscal status developed nations, and specifically the US have I is emerging markets which is. Terrible end ironic at the same time, because emerging markets arguably need more monetary help to. Run A virus than than the US. Yes that is one of the perverse things that there's no substitute in this crisis bore spending a lot of money investing in ace spending money to so people can pay their bills in be a building out the infrastructure to fight the virus, and some countries have the resources to do it and some don't get. That's always the case, but it really is clear in a sort of fast moving acute crisis that gap. I. Guess You know people within countries happened talking about the potential for the run virus sort of accelerate inequality dynamics that were. Present in society and I've a feeling that we're probably going to see that. Same trend on a sort of international level, so inequality between emerging markets versus to markets is just an increase partially because of the this sort of dynamic with investors. That Hyun was also describing i. do think it's something that we should keep exploring that the the length of time it takes us to. To return to something, resembling normal is going to be really important like if in the US it looks like unemployment is going to continue to trend down for a while then we could just go back to maybe the old ways, but if you know if we're still here, you're now and unemployment is in the teens then I think like that really raised the odds of A. Potential for like radical policy makers radical policies because I think the political pressure to do something about that would just get absolutely immense. The longer sustained the longer we have essentially depression level economic activity. I think that's fair. So, we'll reconvene in a year or so so good talked about this. This has been another episode of the all thoughts. podcast I'm Tracy alloway. You can follow me on twitter at Tracy alloway. And I'm Joe Weisenthal. You could follow me at the stalwart and follow our guest on Twitter Hyun Song Shin he's at Songshan Paulo. Our producer Laura Carlson. She's at Laura Carlson. Follow the Bloomberg podcast Francesca Levy at Francesca today as well as all the podcast that we produce your Bloomberg under the handle at podcasts. Thanks for listening.
Episode 47 Nepsis 2020 Market Forecast with Chuck Etzweiler
"Welcome to the invest with clarity. Podcast where you will learn how success an investing as in life is the result of absolute clarity Mark Pearson of Nexus in Minneapolis Minnesota shares his passion for portfolio management and commitment to transparency and communication to allow investors to fully understand what they own and why bringing them to clarity in their investments. And now here are your co hosts manpower and and Mark Pearson. Hello and welcome to another invest with clarity podcast today it is not just going to be Mark Pearson myself but it's going to be chuck chuck the brains behind everything the guy okay. Let's not go. He does have a big brain right. It's just both of your brains eighteen. But he's not the brain all. Okay yeah sorry. We can't edit that out if we wanted to. But I'm not going to keep that in 'cause you humble me on a regular basis Mister Pearson. Oh thank you. You're welcome but we're going to talk today about twenty twenty. So Chuck is the part of the research arm. Is that fair at Research Head of research? Right okay vice president global research so my concern was if I would have said that. You've been like no biggie. That's not him. I'm the person who does that. No He's the head of research we it's good for people's good to talk through it as four people on our investment committee an advisory side and then the three of others of us who look at all of the things that we need to look at an investment committee which we do not discuss publicly right. But we have chuck's brain here so we're GonNa talk about some things that you and I don't really talk about on the podcast right correct. Yes this'll be great. Start at twenty twenty the whole purpose of this as a start the year out right to help him even though. It's the end of January to give people some insights on twenty twenty because we do think and chuck you can pine on this earth. We do think that there's going to be a lot of noise. There's going to be a lot of usual prognosticating postulating and speculating. And we believe that the more you understand about what you own why you want it the more you understand about your investment disciplined by disciplined self-discipline discipline. We believe that the noise you hear is nothing more than noise and you can shut that out. Yeah all right. Chocolates are talking about some clarity here. Where do we begin? You got and Matt? Thanks mark all both of you for having me on. It's always a pleasure what I like to if I could just kind of. Break the discussion up to three components. I'd like to start off. Could by just simply saying that the investment community was totally caught off guard in twenty nineteen. They were so caught off guard that they were committed to recession that they had to concoct terminology that really doesn't exist in the vernacular the investment community wanted to. Just if I could talk about why we were bullish in twenty nineteen and then kind of pivot to why we twenty twenty is GonNa maintain that posture more teed. It up really well. We have a big election-year at the second. He said I would like to discuss if I could. People say well the election. It's going to be volatile. Well it may. Volatility is a wonderful thing if you have the proper investment philosophy and strategy you got it and then the second thing is this this misnomer that you can't have two really good years in a row so we did a lot of research and we can talk about. This is where we had a negative year like twenty eighteen followed by a really good year like twenty nineteen. What is history say could happen in twenty twenty in part of it again is because the lack of clarity of investors sold in Christmas Eve of two thousand eighteen? Many of them haven't even participated back in to this market so that would be the second piece in the third pieces in a mark is going to have a lot of cometary ears about pullbacks why we love them why they should be revered in not seared in wise long as we're not in a recession that backs are healthy and they actually allow us to recalibrate so those are the three things that maybe we could get into. I think that would be really good. I love it Matt. What do you think well I? I love it too but I'm really curious on how you're going to talk about some of these without really doing some major projections here. So so let. Let's talk about the election specifically because that's on everybody's mind. How do you as as a researcher look at what's going on from from an election standpoint in then make decisions about that? That's really interesting to me. Yes certainly mark and I talk about this all the time because I think. What with too many economists and analysts do is they allow their emotional process to actually conflict with their investment process. No very simply means. We all have these personal political passions. There's nothing wrong with that. We all have. Oh we all should vote coming November however when we allow whoever is in office whoever is in Congress in their dislike are like for that Particular Party or person to override our producer responsibility. That's where we get into trouble so your question is excellent in that we came up with something called this significant seven for twenty twenty so we found seven historical facts that would at least allow a premise to be made that it would be prudent to overweight stocks equities business ownership in most clients portfolios based on the risk tolerance. So I'll walk through those and shouldn't take very long so year four which were in now is historically the second best of a president's term so we went back to nineteen twenty six we slice and dice all of the year fours the average annual increase in prices now this is not including dividends seven percent second only two year three year. Three is what we had in twenty nineteen. That's the best year on average. That's roughly close to eighteen percent. Now here's the big thing we love probability so yes you're four. Average is seven percent without dividends if include dividends over ten. It is a seventy percent probability of being a positive year. I can't predict the future. Nobody can but what I can do is I can simply say okay to an investor based on historical precedent you over seventy percent probability of being a positive year. Now wait a minute though chuckles. Yeah go ahead. Let's reiterate and make sure people understand US something that I continually mentioned in that is at the performance of your portfolio in having get in any given year doesn't matter you say that again in any given year the performance of your portfolio doesn't matter let me explain to you. Why if you're a longer term investor all you're doing at the end of the year is taking a snapshot in time and the reality is actually the fact is that you do not make money or lose money in an investment until it's wet sold so you can you can take a look at your year end statement and say oh. I was up twenty percent or down twenty percent or Yada Yada Yada and you can feel giddy or you can feel remorseful but the reality is all it is is a snapshot in time and you know if people understood what the value of their house increased or decreased each year and they got a statement for that each year people would pride saw their houses to but the reality is. You're not going to sell your house and you shouldn't sell your investments unless you're selling based on your cell discipline so very well said you got it and it's unfortunate. We live in this county or microscope. It's an excellent point mark. I think what really distinguishes the way we manage money at nexus versus other firms. A couple of other things that I thought were interesting. A lot of people in Mark and certainly confirm this is that well. It's an election year. There's going to be lot of volatility out. Why don't I go to cash in the middle of the year? And certainly we hear that not necessarily our clients but we here for people who work with other advisers yours. The key year four corner to which would be certainly April first to June. Thirty S. There is an average negative return of minus one point five percent so if you can annualize that number. But here's the key. Even though it's an average negative return in a given quarter quarter two of your former president you actually have positive returns. Fifty seven percent of the time. That's hard for people to get their arms around but you have an average negative. But you're more likely to get a positive what that says is there's a skewed the downward set of data so even if somebody were saying. I'm going to cash because the average return is negative in q two when all the unknowns about who the nominees are going to be. What the makeup of Congress is going to be. It's still as positive On an average basis. Now here's the thing that's really cool. Patience is always awarded investors. Especially if you have is mark set a buy and sell disciplined than allows you to take advantage of the swings and market prices in year. Four quarters three and four have an average return of plus four point six plus three point nine in their positive fifty seven in seventy one percent of the time so the great unknown becomes known and to answer your question here. Matt wrap this part of it up what we tend to do as we look at sectors we look at the policy of a given administration. What the makeup of Congress is in there always businesses. They're always intra industries. Excuse me that. Our FAVORITE THINK. About pro military type of presidents think about presidents who want to expand healthcare and allow an exchange to occur right have insurance companies there. Those are just two examples. Yeah a coinciding of course with when you look at the businesses you WANNA own having the a framework the characteristics of the type of businesses. You WanNa certainly routed to military course. We are required Matt. I don't know if you know us were required on a quarterly basis to file thirteen now fits SEC. Filing which Lists out our holdings courses not indicative of what the holdings are when you look at it. 'cause it's based on the previous caller close but you think about some of the defense companies like Raytheon who's being bought by technologies now Lockheed Martin L. Three Harris these are all companies that have had substantial performance over the last couple three years. That are very you know. They're just very very good businesses and there's a lot going on in the economy behind the scenes that a lot of people aren't focused on because they're getting deflected into more shorter term type things whether it is who's winning the Democratic race Who's going to be the next president. What kind of policies are going to happen? Is the president going to be impeached? Yada Yada Yada. In the meantime businesses continue to do well. The economy continues to do well and owning businesses overtime has always done well. But we're certainly poised. I think in twenty twenty seven goodyear. You don't mark. I want to go back to something because you schooled me on something a while ago because one of the things that chuck just said was people saying well. If it's going to be really vowed to why don't we go to cash and if we go to cash therefore we might be able to take advantage of some of this volatility and I challenged you mark and said well okay but if you're not seeing any cash how do you buy things when they're on sale and of course you did what you normally do on the podcasts? Which is very quickly and politely. Which I appreciate. Put me in my place and say you know I'm at. We actually have a process for that. So would you mind just taking a minute? It's been a long time since we've talked about that mark and I'd love to have that Reiterated Police Yeah Great. No actually. That's a really good point. Because when you're fully invested and we have been fully invested at this point for a while and until we see indications of a recession we are going to stay fully invested but this is the importance of asset allocation. This is the importance of flexibility and transparency. Remember we've talked about the four keys to success for investing your investment philosophy your investment strategy flexibility and transparency and layered within that what we have trademarked that is called strategic cost averaging and it is the philosophy and strategy the flexibility and transparency. That are the call it the over arching aspects of investment decisions and below that. If you were to build a pyramid you would say A beat beyond those four things are what type of businesses do you want to own the asset allocation strategy? Summer going to be growth summer grammy value. Some issues are going to do better than others. Maybe you're in. Maybe you've got more conservative. Utilities in the more conservative portfolios and layer below that is your strategic cost averaging flexibility and transparency enables you to go in sell portions of businesses. That have done extremely well for you. Which by the way we're always doing and taking that cash and buying other companies that are on sale that may be during a correction on a percentage basis. Have Gone Down more but the fundamentals haven't changed or in fact they've gotten better and the greatest example. I can give you this though by far. The greatest example is exactly what is happening right now in. What's happening right now? Is We're dealing with this corona virus right out of out of China and coming out of the gate in January of this year Chinese stocks particularly Chinese names that we own Thirteen F like by do an I Q and Beeson names like this. That are on the thirteen F. You know they have now started the year. Great but now have substantial pullbacks in light of this Black Swan event. This whole health scare right well strategic cost averaging your by discipline and your cell discipline working together enables you that no matter if you're fully invested or not you are able to take advantage of buying something or more of something when it is on sale. That is the that's why you stay fully invested. It is a marathon. It's not a sprint. So from a research arm How do you support that? Mark was just saying there with with these three major navigation points for twenty twenty. Yes certainly first of all mark later that when he said fully invest until we see a recession recessions or really can be if there's anything that allows one to begin hedging a portfolio or maybe getting a little more cautious if if there is a recession forthcoming. We don't see that at all. And I think that's something that it would be an overriding macro feature but still even if we were. We would be invested in businesses. That would actually still do relatively well even within a recession. If at that same time knowing that we're going to come out of the recession ultimately there's going to be great buys so we're not affirm that it is going to make these wild claims that one should be fully out of the market any time anything more laid out this process. We have a strict discipline that allows us to look individually at a company. Incisa how much we want to own of it why we want to own it. And then when we further we don't allowed it'd be in the portfolio anymore. So I think he laid that out exceptionally well one of the things if I could. I wanted to just mention this about The political world that we live in and mark and I have discussed this before Matt. This was really interesting in our research here that we found pew research actually a polls the general public asking them whether they rate the national economic conditions is excellent or good give you the most recent statistics so seventy nine percent of people who define themselves as a Republican or leaning Republican defined. The economy is being excellent or good. Thirty three percent of Democrats or leaned Democrat. Believe that the economy as excellent or good now this is not to pick on Democrats Because back in two thousand and thirteen right in the beginning of that point in time if you recall we had just walked through the downgrade of the US debt We really had gold. That was kind of the asset class of choice. Thirty three percent of Democrats felt the economy was excellent or good while only ten percent of Republicans so one of the things that again people do unfortunately is they allow their emotions in their political leanings to define how they invest. We do not do that at nexus and I think that's again one of the differentiator of how we manage money here. All right I got. Maybe this is the finally the time I'm going to get you guys. How can you not do that? I mean this. That's that's a fundamental belief in how you view the world. How do you guys check that at the door? You have to always tell investors that you one of the biggest things that you pay. Your Portfolio Manager for Financial Advisor for is to be unemotional. Our job is to be the leader in lead the client and There is a plan that is in place. And if I ran my business emot- If I ran my portfolio emotionally Iran. My business emotionally. What kind of negative impact could that have on the process and again let me just say this This is the greatest example. Because I've talked about this a little bit before but I need to give this disclosure This is not a recommendation. This is not a solicitation. I'm not telling you to go out and buy the stock. Do Your own research and look at it yourself because the stock has performed horribly. Will we have a position ends labs? Zeist is the company in the course that stock has been a brutal performer and it has had a dramatic negative impact on overall portfolios in two thousand seventeen in two thousand eighteen. And there's been a lot of emotional biases by investors by clients there's been a lot of emotional biases by clients I mean by also by financial advisers and the reality. Is that while all? This is going on there in the middle of two billion dollar lawsuit with Walmart and it's set to go to trial June. Now we don't know what the outcome of the trial is going to be what the results are going to be. We don't even know if it's going to go to trial but we've always said no what you own and why you won't right map and we've done a considerable amount of research over the years as a pertains to this company and if there's any company that people are that I could have gotten emotional about this one would have been it but the storyline of this company and the story line. More importantly of the client's portfolio has been that we have reduced the cost basis inclined portfolios. I over sixty percent by being able to buy more on sale and as I was buying more on sale investors when questioned me and as they would question me I would question back and ask them one simple question and the simple question is have the long term fundamentals changed and the answer was always no in fact they had continued to get better so when the lawsuits don as Slash zest labs comes out of this season of their business. Though story to be told will be at that. Investors lowered basis by sixty plus percent. And that the emotions were checked at the door. Because long-term no one position makes or breaks portfolio again. Long short term can have an impact sure long-term no and two thousand in nineteen in two thousand and twenty unfolded. People aren't even really talking about the stock. It's it's had a more of a positive impact on portfolios. And we're still waiting for our outcome. That's how you check emotions at the door when you understand your process matt when you believe in the process and the process is A long term Time-tested process and your bides discipline yourself. Discipline your asset allocation strategy and your philosophy and strategy of all work together. The beauty is you. Don't have to be emotional. You stick to the process and that is what allows you to check your emotions at the door. You know mark one of these days I swear to God. I'm GonNa get you guys. I'm going to trip you up somehow and I'm GONNA dance and I'm GONNA videotape it and I'm going to send it to you guys just so you know all right so chuck. So what else are you guys What else you said so The the election volatility pullbacks. Well what else are we looking at here? Yes certainly. So here's an another really try to condense is as best I can. It which was fascinating to us is again. Mark laid out really well about emotions. Think about this so we have this. I call it the Christmas. Eve massacre the Mass Exodus December. Twenty four th of twenty eighteen. Actually get a text from from markets. I think this is over. What was overweight. Twenty percent pullback. We hadn't had one of those integrate recession and investors left in droves. So here's the emotional component here. They laughed in droves. They didn't have a relationship with a trusted financial advisor or sound financial plan investment strategy and process. So they got out in what they did. They watch the market rise significantly in twenty nineteen so they tell themselves this. I made a mistake I got out. I should have never done that but I'm not GonNa make a second mistake. I I sold blow. Now the second mistake would be to get in and by high because you can't have two good years in a row it just simply isn't true so we did some research here again. I'll give you the condensed version so we went back all the way post World War. Two and seventy two years of performance. Yes there has been twenty one down years. Think about this that occurrence of down years once every three and a half years. And if you break these out in the calendar ears right so again. Investing in businesses still remains the most prolific in our estimation not only accumulate wealth or preserve it over time so it doesn't erode the purchasing power of the cash. You have now. There have been three negative back to back years. Who EXCLUDED THOSE? That was seventy three. Seventy four seventy seven seventy eight two thousand one two thousand two thousand one to. There's fourteen examples of single negative years so we had one in two thousand eighteen right on average the follow through after that negative year is over twenty percent so again logic would've told someone. Hey we had a rough calendar year. Let's call in. Twenty eighteen was followed by a really good year. What happens in the third year of the Trifecta so again down your twenty eighteen really good year. Twenty Nineteen What about twenty twenty? Yeah Hey Chuck before you go to twenty twenty. Yeah L. Matt and listeners. What did investors do in two thousand in nineteen twenty percent pullback particularly in January and February March? What investors do you got it? And that's I was reading my mind. Matt that was fabulous. There was an article in the Wall Street. Journal we had a record outflow of stock mutual funds in stock. Etf's to the tune of a hundred and thirty four billion dollars. That's with a B. This was through December eight. Th of last year a Wall Street Journal articles it. Investors Bail on stock market rally fleeing funds at a record pace sink about that. That was twice as much that happened in two thousand and eight the highest on record in again this is just amazing to us in a more and mark laid out the emotional on it was solely based on that they were selling from Christmas Eve through January February March all the way through twenty nineteen and us. It's it's fascinating from a research standpoint. But it's downright sad when you really think about it. People just don't have a router. They don't have clarity and that's the kind of mistakes they make. I want emotion overrides which should be objective process so the negative year followed by the positive. You're twenty nineteen to twenty twenty. There's only been one times of these three TRIFECTA so again. Negative really good year so what happens in the third year. We have to go back to the Cuban missile crisis of nineteen sixty two which the history books describe is probably the closest. We were ever to the brink of nuclear war. The pullback was twenty eight percent. It didn't occur in a recession to think about this on the brink of Nuclear War. It lasted three months. In once presidents Kennedy and Khrushchev came to agree On somewhat of the disarmament process. Ears the key yet. We had a down year but the following three-year sixty three sixty four sixty five where all positive all greater than ten percent. Here's the big thing I wanted to get across that third year of the TRIFECTA down here really good year last year the average third year of that trifecta plus eleven point six nine so to simply incorrect to make the assumption and. I don't know what's going to happen this year but history would suggest that you can't have that now. Here's why I think this is and I'm GONNA pass back. Mark is he laid it up really well. Those investors who got out last year or probably now hearing and seeing on television or hearing people at family reunions and social gatherings. Hey I doing exa my portfolio. What are they going to do? They're going to jump in and they're going to push this baby up in. That is always what happens in again. People don't have clarity. And they use a motion overriding objective. The Do sheree type. It makes the process right and of course they go buy mutual funds. Ats and of course the world is really growing in the problem with ETF's Matt. My pain is while. I think that ETF's are great for certain types of investors the problem with an ETF is they are immediately liquid. They're not like a mutual fund where the price settles at the end of the day so when an investor capitulates and wants to sell the problem with an ETF as saw right there and with some of the weird market things that have happened over time flash crashes that have happened in people who put orders in sell things. They don't realize the potential impact in the risks that are associated with that. I often say this People spent a Lotta time basing risk on volatility. This idea that the more volume portfolio is the more risky it is. That couldn't be farther from the truth. I would tell you that. Volatility creates opportunity and if your portfolio. You've done all the work upfront. And you've done The risk tolerance slash investment objective process to understand what the investment objectives are of the money. And the timeframe of what you're gonNA have that money. Invested for than volatility should not be considered risk. Because you're not selling anyways you're sticking to your investment strategy right. The risk is that you are wrong. Just wants on getting out and getting back in. You could be wrong one time. And it could dramatically impact the long term performance of your portfolio. Let me explain it this way. What happens if you time it? What APPLE TV? Time something and you end up being wrong so you get out and all of a sudden things go up five percent right and you decide while I'm GonNa go quote invest in the market so I go by these. E T s right by these mutual funds not the businesses right on buying the mutual fund. T.f In its five percent higher. I missed out well. Let's just say I had one hundred thousand dollar portfolio and I missed on five percent. That's five thousand dollars right now. You See Yourself. I only missed five grand. That's no big deal but remember the power of compound interest. Take that five thousand dollars. Average at seven eight nine ten percent over the next thirty years and tell me what that number is. That's actually how much you've lost out on the time. Value of money is the one aspect that investors don't think about so the ability to know what you own and why you won't at the ability to be more sniper rifle. Investing I e strategically cost averaging in specific businesses. When they go down is huge. Give you a great example New Tonics. We start buying new tonics in the thirty nine range. It got down the thirty three. We bought more twenty seven. We bought more and it went all the way down eighteen and change and we basically more than double the position at eighteen and change thinking from a conviction standpoint. This is this is huge now. The overall impact to the portfolio going from thirty nine to eighteen shockingly may be one to one and a half percent of your total portfolio. It's not a big. It's not a big number right all of a sudden seven months later you open your eyes and stocks at thirty six. It's all thirty six and what you were able to do when you bought more at thirty five at thirty at twenty seven at age eighteen. Is You reduce the basis from thirty nine to thirty? These are numbers K. They reduce basis from thirty nine to thirty stocks at thirty six as of yesterday two days ago. That's a twenty percent move in less than a year in less than a year. I always say decline should be twenty percent a year. Heck yeah they would. That is the power of strategic cost. Averaging that is the power of strategically pinpointing exactly in the portfolio where the weaknesses and take advantage of the weakness can't do that in an ETF earn mutual fund. Because you don't even know what you only why you want it. That's the power of naps. Investing McCleary now in order to Wrap up today's podcast. I do I do have one side question in and I think I've asked you this before mark but I don't think I've ever had the chance to really ask chuck this so rumor has it and at my number might be a little bit off that there's one trillion in that's the one with the t of cash basically just sitting in banks now banks and credit unions and I don't know about where you guys live but where I live. There's banks and credit unions being built these humongous a things buildings and stuff because it got so much cash right. What what what's GonNa Happen when people put that cash back in the market I mean if there's a trillion sitting on the side and we're still going up. Oh my goodness gracious. Yeah well first of all. I'm going to let Chuck Cancer. But we've talked a lot about. There's actually more than a trillion Sydney cash. What's the actual number right now? Chuck it changes in just under twenty trillion twenty trillion. So okay sorry hold on. I was off mark. What's that I was that off? I was nineteen trillion dollars off. Okay Okay Okay. Thanks for. Forgive me are going sorry. It's not that much right. It's all perspective. Here's what we've talked about in the past. Also you have what's called secular bull markets and secular bear markets and secular bull markets as a sir. John Templeton has often said is that bull. Markets are born on pessimism. I think I'm GonNa get this quote rags. I'm doing by memory chuck there. They are born on pessimism they rise on skepticism and they die on euphoria right in as they mature on. Optimus Diane Euphoria. Yeah and in secular bull markets secular bull markets the average price earnings ratio of the S. and P. Five hundred is twenty five times earnings in nineteen ninety nine in the march two thousand when the secular bull market ended then the SNP's forward price earnings ratio was at twenty nine and that most people know that eighty six percent of the pre in two thousand nine hundred ninety nine eighty six percent of the S&P five hundred's return in nineteen ninety nine was based on eight stocks. Eight so we are now. Even as people say quote unquote the markets overvalued the markets overvalued the markets undervalued. Listen whenever you hear someone say something like that shut the TV off first of all overvalued in undervalued is relative and I always believe that the market is fairly valued why because buyers and sellers have the ability to buy or sell any given price. This whole idea that we'll be historical average S. and P. Five Hundred Sixteen Times. Let's true so if it's at nineteen times that's overvalued false because in secular bull markets the S. and P. Actually average is up to twenty five times so was it really overvalued or not so when you take nineteen trillion and you will hit that euphoric stage and when you do. Don't worry chuck and I will be right there. Taking profits or hedging portfolios minimize tax implications so that investors can prepare for the secular bear market because when secular bull markets and thus begins secular bear markets. Zanny nailed it mark. Thank you got anything you guys want to say after that to bring us home today not meeting unless you have something they add boss. I would just going to say clarity rains and I would just invite anyone to join us on that journey. It's amazing the difference when you have clarity and all that all right if you have not subscribed the podcast make sure you click that subscribe now but and blow and you have to know somebody who you're sitting around with especially since the weather's GonNa Start Breaking here relatively sooner you're sitting in the Ski Lodge and somebody starts talking about how great their investments are doing. Let's have them. Listen to this Flippin podcast. Will you buy just walking over to them? Showing them how to subscribe to the podcast on your phone and just make sure that you guys have any questions you can go to Invest WITH CLARITY DOT COM and double check and see what is going on. And what sort of things you need to be paying attention to so for everybody at Nexus Chuck and mark. This is Matt Halpern. We'll see on the other side of the Mike very soon. The content discussed is for informational purposes. Only it is not a solicitation or recommendation for any securities that may be mentioned here aunt advisory services offered through naps eight an SEC registered investment advisor.
Episode 26 Anchors Awaywith Guest Chuck Etzweiler
"Welcome to the invest with clarity podcasts where you will learn how success in investing as in life is the result of absolute clarity. Mark Pearson of nexus in Minneapolis. Minnesota shares his passion for portfolio management and commitment to transparency and communication to allow investors to fully understand what they own and why bringing them to clarity in their investments. And now here are your co host Manhattan or an end Mark Pearson. Hello and welcome to another invest with clarity podcast today. We have the dynamic duo of Mark Pearson, and Chuck while they are going to talk today about anchors away. Now, we've talked a little bit about what anchors are in the past. We're going to dive into that a lot more deeply so Markelle. Once you begin the conversation. Let's see where we're going to go with this puppy. You got it biggie. Thanks for having a sign anchor bias, I think it's fitting during the as we are recording this on December. Over twentieth in the markets seem to be down again today for about what the eightieth day in a row at feels like that it's important for investors to keep a level head right and not allow biases to interfere with their decision making process. And so I brought our head of research. Chuck that's Wyler on the call with me as he has done a lot of work on a lot of the different biases. Some will probably cover again. I know we covered the biased who me white paper that you can get it. Invest with clarity dot com. You can download that for free bias to me. I'd encourage the listeners to download it. As there's a lot of good information there that may help them during this period of uncertainty how to manage their portfolios and stick to the knitting as we like to say, so that's the basis for today's call. Why don't we start out map by asking Chuck Chuck, by the way, how are you? Great, mark. It's great to be with both. You guys your way to conked? So can we can you please give people a brief background of what the anchor bias is? Absolutely. A anchor bias in think of the word picture of an actual anchor that holds down a ship. Maybe a very large ship a battleship possibly so anchoring in. Investing is recently when an individual receives a piece of information in this information, aligns with what I would call their personal belief system or their emotional psyche. They gravitate towards it. They hold onto it for a long period of time. And here's the key thing. When new information is received that normally would dissuade them from believing in the same manner, they refuse to move away from it. They're locked in like, a large anchor holds a massive battleship. And because they if they moved away from that positioning, they would then have to agree that their original thoughts were incorrect. So it is very pervasive in investing. And quite frankly, we're seeing a lot of it today. Yeah. It says that you know, obviously, the anchoring is really people get anchored on one trait or in this case piece of information when making decisions, and so we've got in the financial services business, right, man. We've got lots of prognostication postulations speculation. Right. Well, we do in. I guess my. I'm gonna throw this right back at chock, which is okay. So so how do we unhook the anchor? How do we anti anchor people from making these sorts of of biases or or these relations is probably a better word. Well, Matt, I that's extremely profound question and you toss it up right here in the beginning. And I love it. And I'm gonna pass it on to Mark after I give my initial answer. Because certainly that's what nexus is all about. It's Altima clarity that will allow the anchor to be taken away or untied. But very simply what investors have to realize is that they can be their own worst enemy. We wrote the white paper called bias to me, which Mark reference there are other biases, which tie-in anchoring. But anchoring become so insidious because when we align what should be something. That's subjective. With emotion, we become deeply tied to it. And this is something that takes a period of time to unravel in truly it's through clarity. It's understanding how you're invested. Why you're invested the way you are working with the money manager an advisor who really is looking out for your bone. Interests and can really diagnos somebody with this type of an all pervasive condition. Yeah. That's exactly right. We really believe. I mean, the whole impetus is, you know, mad is about nap sece's clarity. It's investing with clarity invest. That's why we have invest with clarity dot com. We believe that the more clarity. And investor has the more apt they are to stick to the knitting or stick to the investment process. Because ultimately, it's the process that makes one successful not the biases that we have. And this is part of the reason why so many investors and up jumping from one portfolio to another from one money manager to another. They don't have a clear understanding of what is in their portfolio. They don't have a clear understanding of why they have what's in their portfolio and enable them to make rational decisions. Now, there are doesn't mean that every portfolio manager is going to be great doesn't mean that you're still not going to make decisions after that. But the reality is that the greater amount of clarity. You have with what's going on with your money. We really fundamentally believe. That investors are more apt to stick to their process. No, you can't. I'm sorry. You can also use anchors in a positive way. Though. Can't we can't we use the idea of naps having that clarity, truly understanding what you want and why you own it. Can't we use that as an anchor to kind of swing people away from all of these other noisy anchors that that are out there. You know? It's funny. It's a great question. A great point because the irony of that actually is that my firm used to be called anchor capital until he changed. It's an emphasis about nine eight years or so ago. So they answer that question is. Yes. Anchored in sound investment principles used to be the foundational component of what is now. Naps us investing with clarity, the idea that when you have clarity. You can be anchored in sound investment, principles know, what's going on with your money. No why it's going on with your money. And if you will end up being in a position where you're not just another doll bar statistic. As we've talked about it in a previous podcast about. Investors being doll bar, you know, doll bar statistics. So you are absolutely correct about that. You always know what the good questions to ask that does. I appreciate that my background as therapist probably helps a little bit. And the fact that we used to talk about anchors lot, and how you can use them positively negatively guys, and that's why I'm so fascinated with you know, the doll bar stuff with your white papers. Because there's there's some true psychological foundation here. This isn't just pop psychology. It's in fact, there's no pop psychology. This is legitimate behavioral things that Nep sus helps with in order to make it. So that people don't make those doll bar mistakes. Let's talk a little bit more about this white paper, though, what else is in there. So that we can motivate people to to go to the website and downloaded please. Yeah. Chuck, do you wanna go ahead and take that? Yeah. I certainly can so biased who me the title. I think rings awfully with not. Only investing public, but but the general public because people believe in their own mind that they're making a proper decision based on on logical information when when many are not in. It's very very hard in any decision. We make not to allow motion to creep into that decision making process, and as you just said as a therapist Matt and previous work in in the field of psychology that tends to happen way too much. So we wrote this paper in we toss it out to investors and saying, okay, we must realize that all of us are biased. Now, I'm to take a step backwards modern portfolio theory, one of the three tenets of modern portfolio theory is that we are unbiased in that basically means that we've have no previous decision making or were not predisposed under a certain mindset when we approach. The investment process that simply isn't true. So the first thing that people need to understand as yes, I am biased. I bring with me baggage baggage from either a previous experience in investing or were there. Previous advisor portfolio manager. I need to clear that from my mind and a sit down, and I need to really wipe the slate clean and start the process through clarity of understanding that I can be my own worst enemy in investing in one. I am biased. That's probably the worst thing that I can actually do the first thing I have to MIT that I am. And then clear those out, and that's what we discussed in that paper and how to do that. Just to piggyback on that bat. But you know, one of the things that I think we've Chuck and I have talked about in the past. On the radio show. And maybe in the podcasts. I can't remember as the idea that when you work with a portfolio manager one of the key things one of the key tenets, if you will of that manager you want to look for is their ability to stick to their investment process, absolutely up. So many times portfolio managers will change their process in an effort to either chase returns, try to beat a benchmark try to you know, experiment. Whatever the case may be and there have been studies done on it. On on portfolio managers and their inability to stick to a process, particularly when you look at what's going on with the markets right now, where they're completely illogically continuing to go down darn near every day and soul. The markets are trying to predict a recession when the numbers don't indicate that in the first place, and so you will find portfolio managers in particular, a changing course doing different things and at the that's their choice. Right. But as an investor you choose a portfolio manager, you choose a a mutual fund or need Tf, or whatever may be for specific reasons because they do things a certain way. And so obviously, it would be extremely important for the investor to understand if that if that porfolio manager is doing what they say, they're gonna do if they're sticking to their process if you will. So these are these are, obviously clarity is the foundation anchoring is a huge problem. People sit in front of the TV during uncertain pint on certain periods, like we're in right now, I mean people are now talking about, you know, another two thousand and eight people are talking about a crash everything is negative and the reality is you could close your eyes. Shut your ears today. Probably wake up and five years. Probably. There's no guarantees and things will be completely different and markets will be a lot higher. Investments will be worth more importantly investments will be worth more money. So that's the that's the that's the gist of anchor. So where do we where do we go from here? So let let's besides having them. Download that that white paper. What is the next call to action? Should it be? You know, everything surrounding the stock market in the news is freaking click bait. Right. It's they want you to click. They want you to react, you know, Mark. In fact, our last podcast you, and I talked about statements and things like that. Right. And in you know, how those are points in time and they're not necessarily the right information to look at about. If if their adviser is not sticking to the knitting, if they are jumping ship, which by the way, I worked with a company many many years ago who that was the adviser's advice who ran this big coaching company was if your investment management process is not working jumped ship and go to a different one. Because at least it makes you look like you're doing something new and trying something different. I mean seriously guys that was that was I remember saying that from the stage in front of a six hundred hundred people. So so what do we do tell us? What we do right now. The the markets are all over the place. It's crazy. I've I'm getting calls from old clients of mine who were. Financial advisers who are like Matt why do I do and up? I hearken back to this guy named Mark Pearson. Who keeps telling me to stick to the knitting and invest with clarity, right? That's right. Thank you. Well, that's exactly right. Look during periods of uncertainty during corrections one of the things that all investors should be doing and portfolio managers myself included is what I call a tidying-up the portfolio or for lack of a better phrase cleaning it up tweak in in a little bit. You know, when everything is going down like it is right now, it's an opportunity, you know, for obviously for tax laws harvesting, it's an opportunity to sell weaker positions in favor of stronger ones because everything is going down. Right. And making sure that when this correction is done, and it will get done. It'll be done eventually that your portfolio is well positioned for the next three five ten. Years as the correction ends, and and more than likely your markets, and more importantly, the companies. You owning your portfolio are gonna go are going up in value. This is a critical time it's time to be selling a gains in terms of the rebalancing process. In other words, if you own both stocks and bonds, stocks are getting hammered more than bonds, we call it a rebalanced to your target model percentage. In other words, if you aren't ten percent of your money in corporate bonds, and now it's at twelve percent because your portfolio has gone down in value. You sell that two percent of those corporate Brown's bring it back to ten and where there are deficiencies in the portfolio, you go by those deficiencies because that that's the key it forces you to sell high em- Bilo, not buy high and sell low. It's a critical strategy. In for people who don't have clarity because they have mutual funds or ETF center portfolio. Matt this is one of the really one of the only strategies that give the the investor somewhat of an advantage to their investment process because it forces them to buy low and sell high. So that would be my biggest recommendation. And on key. Well, hold on before we go to Chuck Chuck. I just want to jump in. If you have not listened to this podcast righteously and religiously if you go back there have been podcast that Mark has done that talks about how volatility and opportunity. So I just wanted to drop that there because there's some great previous recordings that do cover a lot of what you were just talking about. So Chuck, no, Chuck before I appreciate that one thing. I think I've talked to you about Matt in the past. I'll just say this and I'll let Chuck chuckle. We did we did a little bit of a study on on Warren Buffett back in nineteen ninety eight to two thousand which in my opinion, and Chuck's opinion was very similar similar type of market as to what we're in now, which is people were pouring money into low cost index funds. And unfortunately, when you do that these are the kind of events that happen because when you are pouring in the index fund forces the index is to have to buy the stocks, right? So. You end up having is very few stocks driving an index which was happening to the SNP and the NASDAQ and therefore expanding the valuations of those companies, and in the NASDAQ man to give you a blatant example, we owned in video will we sold Invidia between two hundred sixty two hundred sixty five dollars a share back in October right today. It's at one hundred thirty eight it was one of the six names that contributed to the return that the NASDAQ had before this all started in October. And there's a classic example of a name who got he Emerton this correction, basically almost out of down over, you know. Well, let's call it almost fifty percent in three months a blue supposedly a blue chip big tech name. So investors need to really understand what they own why they own it. So to Nabil's them to stick to that. You know, obviously to stick to that process. Okay. Sorry, go, Chuck, certainly, Mark. You gave I think because the gradient. Sir. And what I may be can do I can maybe give a broader picture of what I think maybe individuals can do to lessen this this really nasty anchor bias, the first is I I would just make this in to never align your emotional political views with your investing tenants. And what I mean by that. It's American for each one of us to have a personal political passion, we all should do that we all of a single vote, right, Mark. And I had been in this business long enough where people didn't like a certain president. And that's fine. And they decided just not to invest because they didn't feel though that president was making policy in their best interest. That's just a fallacy. I've heard that through the current president and going back all the way say four or five behind them. So how do you invest in? Also, keep your nose to the grindstone as pertains to Washington. DC policy comes out awash. In DC what we try to do as we looked to see where the policy is aligned in. Then actually look at some of the companies that may be would benefit from that. That is separate from the fact that we may or may not like the party in power. Or who the president is? That's the first thing. The second thing is that I have found that individuals who believe that our national debt is getting way out of hand have decided because they've heard some speaker looked at some DVD series or book and said, you know, what I'm going to own gold. I'm going to sell all the businesses the stocks, I own an invest in gold, and we sold up back at the end of two thousand and eleven when goal was at nine thousand nine hundred an ounce, and certainly now it's in the twelve hundreds and individuals again through emotion through anchoring into a story that they've been told even though there is new information that comes their way, they refused to back off of it. So I would simply say that not aligning that emotional. Political view with how one inves- is one way that investors through clarity can remove the anchor bias in then investigate look at what actually is being taught to somebody's selling you a book and a DVD series in a Bill goods think about walking the other way and actually looking to an advisor in a portfolio manager who is asking you to have a transparent relationship one that is built on trust. And those would be two ways that I think that individuals could start on the road declared by removing the anchor bias great point. I agree. Thanks, mark. There. You have it Matt. Yeah. Any other any other closing thoughts before we wrap up today? Not for me. Hopefully, this helps people listening in Chuck anything else from you. I don't think so great job. Always a pleasure for having me on these guys. Thanks so much of the opportunity. Really? Appreciate it. And think both Chuck and Mark Pearson for being on the show today. Just have not subscribe to the podcast yet. Make sure you click that subscribe now, but blow and I am sure that you are having conversations around the dinner table with friends and family, especially because the holidays are upon us. If somebody is showing this anchor bias share this podcast with them share the white paper that you can get at the nexus website because this is exactly what dull bars hockey about. Mark's talked about it in the past making the wrong decision at the wrong time, which negatively impacts your entire portfolio and could potentially impact your life, so four invest with clarity nexus and all of us at top advisor. Marketing we'll see on the other side of the Mike very soon the content disgust is for information. National purposes, only it is not a solicitation or recommendation for any securities that may be mentioned here in advisory services offered through naps eight and SEC registered investment advisor.
179 The Fascinating Paradox of Cryptocurrency
"This is recorded future inside security intelligence. Hello everyone, and welcome to episode one, hundred, seventy, nine of the recorded future podcast. I'm Dave Gardner from the cyber wire our guest. This week is Kim Groure head of research at Shane Allison. A-, blockchain intelligence platform provider sheriff's her story of her rather whimsical initial interest in blockchain technology and how it quickly shifted to a serious academic and professional pursuit. We'll hear her views on crypto currency and the impact it's having on monetary policy around the world. It's used by criminals and how initial enthusiasm from investors for anything and everything blockchain related led to a credibility gap that serious researchers are still working to overcome. Stay with us. Own. I have been working at chain Alice's for decelerated my three year anniversary, which I was very excited about I joined rate in mid twenty seventeen right before the a big cryptocurrency bubble. So it was really excited to kind of into this industry for the first few months be like all right. I made the right decision here. And then I came previously from an economics background working for the city of New York, the mayor's office in his economic development initiatives. So how do we thinking about how we can fund certain? Industries and subsidize them or give them land contracts to help with economic development. We did a lot of cost benefit analyses and wanting I focused on started to kind of get people to pay attention to as Blockchain, and I'm happy to say now there's actually a endorsed blockchain week. in New York that consensus event is co hosted by the. Used to work for and I got into crypto currency in when I was studying in graduate school studying economics and I was forced to take game, theory course which I actually now I appreciate. But at the time I didn't appreciate it I'd had trouble understanding its usefulness. So I kind of. had been following cryptocurrency in Bitcoin for a while and decided I was just going to do a paper on bitcoin sounded kind of like a cookie thing to focus in an entire year researching and I came out and I went down the rabbit hole came out the other end being really fascinated by this and. Then I started to just pay attention to things as they were as industry developed, and that's when I that I went and I went and joined the New York City Mayor's office and started to continue to think about cryptocurrency met up with the CO founder and you know we talked in me they want to start doing research economics research. Can you come on board and so I laughed and I have been doing that for three years and so what is your day to day like these days? What sort of things take up your time and attention right now today today literally, the past week has been starting to kick off our annual crypto crime report, which is a big project that we take on every year I. Don't know if you've seen it or if you're familiar with it but we try to. Look at the review see what's going on crime and educate people to the best of our abilities because we're sitting from this point of view where we have access to some of the data on what's happening in cryptocurrency to educate people on how criminals are changing adapting what's the biggest type of crime they're the most victims what type of London money laundering infrastructure are we seeing and when I'm not focusing on Crypto? Crime. We just completed a really rigorous effort to start talking about geography of currency. Where is the most Kinda grassroots level adoption we spent a long time building out a methodology to pair with our data to speak more authoritatively about. What is which countries are using cryptocurrency the most, and this was really borne out of a desire to kind of answer what people are using cryptocurrency for from our crime report, we have this high level, go to number about one percent of all transfers are associated with illicit activity and we know exactly we know what's going on there but you know our CEO is asking us. Okay. What about the other ninety, nine percent of activity so we're like Yeah it's a really. Good Point. So let's let's branch out and aside from these two sprint reports I do a lot of data requests for people who are trying to learn about the industry work with journalists work on writing one off blogs on criminal activity or things that people should be paying attention to in the space. If there's a big twitter hack, we kinda go all hands on deck follow the funds published a blog, and so it's really just focusing on research cryptocurrency space and. Typically criminal activity but so general economic activity. You know you mentioned your own I guess skeptical beginnings when it came to cryptocurrency as you're going through your own learning process, can you can you sort of share that story with us of you you went through that from starting out having a Of Knowledge and it sounds like some skepticism to something that you really had a deep interest in well when I first started to think about bitcoin and I'm going to write this paper it was genuinely kind of a cookie thing to talk about Miami remember my roommate and graduate school kind of rolled her eyes when I said I was going to take on this project, my professor, my graduate school professor wrote it off a little bit as just being this. I don't know exactly if we thought at that time that maybe it was just a bubble people are bored or just generally not taking it very seriously. and. That's what I went into it. With the intention of thinking about that I had read an article about how it might take over as a global currency. I wanted to see if I could apply game to definitively answer from our perspective whether or not. That's possible. And I went and started just educating myself on I. The technical side of things how does the blockchain work Howard transfers validated? And what is mining house mining work and then once I had that kind of foundation not that you need that foundation but once I had it I felt more comfortable being able to think about whether how sustainable this ecosystem is and what it would mean for actually to become a meaningful asset. Now, I didn't answer whether or not I think what it would take to become global currency reserves but I or to become kind of broadly accepted broadly utilized. Away similar to. Gold. But I did start to take it really seriously start I started to think after spending time educating myself in talking to people that there are some really legit technology behind this, and there's actually also it's paired with. A general interest by people. So I started to think that. It has potential. And whether or not is going to get to that place of everyone talks about is not something even today I have a strong answer about, but it's something that is interesting to continue to follow, and especially when you're interested in in criminal activity when you start to realize the the power that this has in following criminal activities starting to be able to think about what does money laundering look like who are the biggest money launderers this is all transparent. This is all hat registered on the blockchain. You can answer some of these big questions that have been playing financial institutions for a long time. You know I I remember that as the enthusiasm for crypto currency and the block chain really took off. You know a couple years ago that it almost suffered from being a punchline. You know like be it seemed you know there were so many organizations who are just using the words cryptocurrency and blockchain to get funding for a company or two as part of a marketing or PR kind of thing. Is is that is that still lingering? Is that a challenge for those of you who are doing serious work in the space that it kind of went through that period of overexuberance I do still struggle with being taken with people understanding industry especially with family older family and friends who who don't understand. I. Mean those Thanksgiving conversations of like what's what's the Bitcoin? Just, just there is still a lot of education that needs to be done I think of it like you don't explain what the technically is happening on the Internet every time you have to have a conversation on Internet about what the Internet is right now but you know we're kind of held to a higher burden at at the moment and I think it's because people are still proving use cases, but it is a punchline and I'm excited I'm hopeful that that one day it won't be so. The conversations won't be so much around people trying to be like, what did I don't understand what it is it. Seems like it's just a bubble and just kind of writing it off and feeling like people know that it's people people feel without much exposure to the space they know exactly what's going to happen with it and but I definitely see that with a certain type of. person who I'm talking to but also other people are more fascinated by it. I mean I don't see people at the dinner table asking about my friends working in finance as so. So many questions with such interest. It's also kind of a fascinating topic and I think that a lot of people even if they have this stigma. They still find themselves fascinated asking more questions. I mean I'm definitely the one interrogated the most of at the dinner table about what I'm doing in a way that you know my lawyer friends aren't asked about and so that interest I find to be Kinda cool. You know it seems to me like there's this this contrast in that you know as you say blockchain has You know this record, this immutable record, which is part of how it works. But at the same time you know the the criminals in the bad guys are using it because it provides a certain amount of anonymity for them. As again as you say to do the money laundering, I mean that to me that's an interesting tension between those two things in a both of which are true. Yeah. Yeah. We actually working on a presentation called the paradox of cryptocurrency that simultaneously tries to address how these. How both of these things can be true at once and I think crucial to that is just understanding technically what we're doing. And just technically what we're doing is we're not demonizing people's use of crypto currency. We use still go in download exodus wallet and it's not ever. It's not going to be associated with who you are. But what we're doing is taking advantage of this public record by associating addresses together in a way that can that can identify when one service is controlling many addresses, and then we actually can see who those services are and that is. Kind of similar to let's see how much money is going in and out of manufacturing in the Fiat world, and let's see how much money is going in and out of in this case, dark marketplaces, and so it's not that were D- anonymous using that we're exploiting the the the the permanence of the Public Ledger and associating addresses together in order to try to see which services are the are the biggest and what what types. Of things do those services engage in you can go to joint base dot com and you can see what they're doing is not hidden or it's not a something they're trying to prevent people from knowing what what they're doing. You go on, you make an account you know you can send transfer. So we're we're just working together with all of this already public information, and in fact, that is the source of a lot of what we. Do is public information aggregating stuff that we know that there is a service that's come online they're saying, Hey, will you come enjoin we come in Account here at our service and just working without public information to try and establish what our CEO calls the phone book of Crypto currency what are some of the things that excite you as you look forward to you know possibilities, things that the that this technology might be applied to. Right now you have in crime crime mentality I've been doing some research today so I'll answer I about crime but one of the things that was released striking for me when I first started to research criminal activity on the blockchain was when you think about how big of a problem money laundering is in the world I mean we are just just look what has gone on breaking news recently, where were know with the fence and files where people have seen just how big of a problems really is with currency you can actually we found that there are. Off Ramp where where criminals tend to offload their money. So we know that there are these hot spots where people can actually send their money to, and they do send their money to especially the really big criminal activity the really big scams, the hacks, the coup point hacks, the the Plus Tokens Scams. These are all small number of scammers who have a lot of money and they have to move that money through permanent blockchain to turn it into something that they want to use probably Fiat currency. and. They have to do that and a lot of places are you know have rigorous KYC? Environment so they tend to take those funds to certain hotspots maybe two or three years ago it was a certain type of exchange you know in you of your BTC which changed that was known for money laundering criminals go to the exchange was they knew that they could send their funds through that is always changing and we are always trying to stay on top of which services money launderers are using and. So in a way it's kind of inspiring to think that if this becomes you know really broadly used, then we can actually start to to be more empowered to tackle some of these questions about how where are those moneylenders going to they're going to OTC Dust Allen. Ex- exchange. Okay. Let's inform not exchange. Let's get law enforcement involved. So that's one of the most exciting things for me when it comes to criminal activity. And then when it comes to regular activity, you know people using cryptocurrency day to day. What was really exciting from the geography report that we just put out. We found that the crypto currency right now is actually used across the entire world. There's only a few countries where we weren't able to to find activity within entered to run all numbers parrot with the web traffic data, which is one of the key ways that. We identified who's using what services. So for example, okay. Coin might have ninety eight percent China. Web Traffic. So we're GONNA attribute ninety, eight percent of that to China. But to see that this actually is actually global phenomenon and that it's serving different news cases depending on which part of the world do you happen to be situated in and depending on which country the infrastructure of whatever country you're sitting in to see that it's Actually, kind of Anneke growing is is has been really exciting to see as well. What sort of insights do you have on the robustness of of cryptocurrency in the blockchain and particular? What I'm thinking of is obviously there's there's the technical side of it, but it strikes me as very interesting that we've really seen for the most part. You'll governments have been hands off when it comes to this they've. Sort of taken a wait and see attitude but that could change at any time. Yeah. It's it's kind of disjointed and different the approaches people different countries take our having real real impact on the businesses we talk to businesses in. Latin America who when there was the banking ban where you can't have a they're not gonNA bank, any businesses, cryptocurrency businesses. We talked to people who there they had to shut down their shop and that kind of put everything on hold and it's of course really impactful and these I don't know if people realize just how impactful regulations can be an I know it might seem obvious to say obviously to say, but you know these real time decisions that regulators are making have A. Strong impact on the services that are actually trying to trying to grow. So I think that things are unfolding. There are some some leaders in the space people who are starting to say, yes, we need to grapple with this and that was one of the reasons why we put out the geography research so that we can go to countries who say we don't HAVE ANY CRYPTO-CURRENCY activity and say, no you do and you have to deal with this and you have to think you have to realize that either user demand and people are starting to use crypto currency. So you have to think about how you're going to regulate this and you can look to these other countries that are doing it in this way and. We they're actually even businesses popping up to try and consult with people to with with companies in with them not companies with governments to try and show them. Let's let's align with our neighbors on regulations. Let's let's do this together and let's look to the future. Let's be forward thinking here, but it's definitely not at that police. Now, there's a lot of disjointed nece. Around, in different countries and it's a something that kind of changes day to day everyday you go into the news into the crypto world of news and you see a new article about a government. You know India talking about maybe panning crypto currency today maybe not so things change really fast and hopefully it's Kinda directionally towards heading to the right place, but it's definitely extremely disjointed. What's your advice for those people who are charged with the defence of their own organizations for protecting near the cyber security of organizations around the world? Any tips for how they should best keep themselves informed for things about crypto currency in the blockchain that may affect them. Well, the first thing that comes to mind is going to be related to ransomware definitely, ransomware is something that as we're writing this crime report as we're doing research I'm thinking that ransomware is going to be the biggest issue that we're going to talk about in in this report, the biggest. Source of not only financial problems for companies, but also the potential tests. So political unrest and I look at more data all the time and it's hard because people it's chronically under reported problem people get hit by ransomware and they don't they pay the either pay. They don't pay the ransomware maybe they'll hire business to do this. They often don't then figure out a way to submit that address to an authority so that People can actually be following those funds that we need to be better accumulating this mark data because the better the more data we have on who these ranch dresses are the more likely we are to be able to either a recoup your funds but be also, there's not that many ransomware experts in the world if we can actually investigate these cybercriminals. That's really really power. That's a really powerful tool because on top of that rants, it's not just a cyber criminal justice ransomware. They're also probably doing other exploits maybe hacking most likely extortion attemps. There's there's kind of seedy underbelly of cyber criminal activity that we have the tools to start to dismantle if we just have more data and so I would just really encourage if people are hit by ransomware attack to be proactive in to let us know that addresses in terms of fighting in preventing asthma more tax I'm actually not a cybersecurity individuals so I'm I don't have you know the Go-to here's the checklist of things you need to do to protect yourself, but if you are listening I mean definitely. Educators on how to protect your computer because people are gonNA ask for Bitcoin, walk up potentially lockup your ransomware, and also for people who don't know ransomware is pretty much exclusively the premed exclusively are asking for. Payments, and so once you get a address that or you send money to a crypto currency payment, you can just give us that address and then we can track those funds. Are. Thanks to Kim Groure from chain analysis for joining us. Don't forget to sign up for the record future cyber daily email where everyday you'll receive the top results for trending technical indicators that are crossing the web cyber news targeted industries, threat actors, exploited vulnerabilities, malware, suspicious Ip addresses, and much more. You can find that record future, dot, com slash Intel. We hope you have enjoyed the show and that you'll subscribe and help spread the word among your colleagues and online. The. Recorded Future podcasts production team includes coordinating producer Caitlyn mattingly. The show is produced by the cyber wire with executive editor Peter Kilby and I'm Dave bittner thanks for listening.
Episode 5: Coup
"This is how I spend all my time owning horses breeding horses racing horses. It's what what makes me truly happy and I actually think it's what I was born to do until the other thing came along that someone else was born to do that. They elected not to do which meant that. I my father then I had to do a job and whenever meant to welcome to the crime. The official PODCAST. I'm Edith Bowman. And this show will follow the third season of the netflix original CDs. The crime episode by episode taking you behind the scene speaking with many of the talented people involved and diving deep into the stories today. We're talking about episode five code. Coup upon upon the devaluation of the pound recently state chief of defence staff might baton is approached to lead a military coup against Wilson's government. Meanwhile Wow Elizabeth visits international horse breeders where she gets a glimpse of the life. She could've lead where she's free to pursue our passions. We'll cover specific pick events and scenes that feature in this episode. So if you haven't watched episode five yet please do so now or very soon. Coming up later we'll hear from actor. Jason Watkins pins who plays Prime Minister. Harold Wilson Jason Speaks of Wilson's expected bond with the Queen as well as his embarrassment over the economic downturn downturn during his time in office as rather brilliant economist. It hurt him doubly yet that he was unable to prop up the pound hound so it was a crisis of economics person crisis in senior me. Personally we'll also hear from head of research on his soles bar Dr who speak in detail about the economic situation in the UK in one thousand nine hundred sixty seven as well as the evolving powers of the crown. She could free all prisoners if she wanted to. She could disband the army but she can't because the minute she does that it's no longer democracy but I I. I spoke with German director Christian show about his personal connection to the crown and what drew him to the character of Queen. Elizabeth Christian. Thank you so much for being been here to talk to us about your involvement in the crown season three because your just about to hop on a plane back to Germany as well. So that's right much appreciate Asia eat. Can we go back before you actually kind of started work on it and hire you were approached to be part of the currencies. Three I have an agent and in London London and he spoke to different people in the industry here and I think one day talked to Susan mackey An and showed her film that I made A period drama about Germany's most famous female artists and apparently honestly she really liked that and had a feeling distracted could could be a fit for the crown and then ahead a a real interview on Skype skype with her and I talked to why I love the crown and why it's so special for me that I was born in East Germany so so I spent my childhood and even though you know I wasn't a victim of of the system but I know how it out fields to to lift behind the wall and I know how exciting it is to lead a life and freedom so the character of young Elizabeth who from one day to the other become so powerful but also has to move into a prison for the rest of her life. Deeply moved me and still does yeah. That's my main connection to. The crown passed an incredible way to put it in terms. That personal connection that you have with a personal connection with custodian as well because it's interesting because you was your first english-language CD's Edward Don and and also the crimes you're one of the first non. I four now. Well that's debatable. But but but you know those those I it's that's a great kind of connection as well uh-huh and a great story In the looking for that the vision I guess side and and also within sparred and impressed by the work. That you've done an in Germany's well so then that happens. And then I'm Peter Peter. I was scared to death when I met him. I We met at his house. which is I'm very nice. House and We had a conversation and I felt like he doesn't like me. He doesn't smile at me and he was listening running It was a Saturday. I was in the middle of shooting my last feature film but then they called on Monday and said come over. Let's do this together tasers. Yeah and then how do you work. Or how did he let you walk episode. You're going to be working on. That's going to work on. You would be two episodes but it took go out to send me scripts but when I got them a few weeks later I got the episode five script and I was so so excited because you could immediately feel something very political and it's even though it takes place in in sixty seven the the coup We're talking about an episode five. It feels so like now in a way. Yeah because You know it's owed man trying to play a dirty politics and To kind of to save something they they feel needs to be saved which is their power their money and history repeating itself. Isn't it in a way. It's such a brilliant thing. And that's the thing that Peter Talks about is about always coming back to her every episode coming back to heart and she deals with every situation and constant turmoil that she has between her role as you know the monarch on her on her private personal as a mother as a wife as a you know. It's kind of that constant it's never ending and this appeal. She has both way and she hasn't with everybody. She has it with Margaret. She has with her children with her husband. Yeah Yeah let's let's see ourselves as well absolutely absolutely. I'm really happy that I was able to do this. Scene with her and her friend. PORTIA in episode five. where she's opening up and telling him and I think she she would never do that? Other episodes to tell alum who she really is who she could be in a different world. It was great for her and for me to show her being happy. So it's only him the sandwiches a cup of tea and two horses and it's this is actually what could make her so happy. Simple life yeah. And then the scene where she actually talks to him. She says it's this was the most enjoyable day of my life of my entire life but also it's such a sad day because I know it shows me who I am but also who I could be. I mean it's such a strong drama and of course it's A. It was a great gift for me to to have a story of hers but that So's substantial and allows me to show her in in a different way. Yeah I think those well. Peter Scripts are incredible in terms of how he's able to to navigate this incredible story that he's talent these people that we know. We think we know but he also allows you is director to really have your own journey with that script with those. Yeah Okay I Yeah it's it's wonderful because Peter he comes from theater so theater you have to to find every move between the words and to to fill the gaps between the lines and his writing. His dialogues are brilliant. They could begin vacation for me to reinvent. The scenes ought not reinvent but to to find a lot more and to make them richer. And because you can always trust his scenes and they will always work. But there's there's yeah I mean there's a million ways to to do them and I think I took a lot of time to prepare different options for every scene and and you collaborate with the with your Costello on it you talk about Vm. Particular CENA's. It's me talk to them about how you see and the different options that you have in your head for your yes but every actress different. Olivia for instance. She very often just asked me. Tell me how you see it and I'm GonNa do it. Various bias We would call each other the day of the week before doing the scene. And for instance the end of episode five after the cool thing is solved. We see them meeting up in her in her little drawing room and they have a little not an argument. But there's a little bit of off. And then he comes and kisses her so it's so delicate and so this was never in the script it was to buy as he just did it in the rehearsal I was like I think he did it as a joke. But then we we we we were like. Oh my God. This is how the scene has to end. You know what I mean. So it's very often. It's finding things together and The great thing about the crown is that it's not you don't have to rush through the shooting day so you halftime for rehearsal and we would talk scenes through and decide which is the best part of her room before and so yes so many different ways ace of doing a scene and sometimes I would even ask Peter before and he would say. Just do it this to your the answer to your question. Question is yes. There's a lot of freedom. Those scenes can also have a different life. Once you get into the edit as well once you work with the music and there's the in particular take yellow new. We talk about this wonderful intimate scene. That she's she's having with her friend and his insight into the world she could have had she's taken to a phone cold and then there's the Milton. Yeah compelled to stay the tolerance of the royal family's hanging by a thread as it is throughout my time in office I have done my level level. Best to protect you but if members of the royal family to interfere with the political business of the day I would be left with no corruption but to side with the Republican elements of my cabinet which have successfully controlled until now they take steps David with me Prime Minister I I just and then that walk that jazz back back. Yeah that was that was. Yeah Peter I discuss about because he wanted me to tune to cut it a bit shorter and I said No. It needs to be that long I I wonder who wanted to ask as well as well. How how the themes in fluence? How and what you do as well in terms of you know with with episode five the coup? There's there's is you know the state of the country that whole kind of cloud of hanging over and Mine Barton and his involvement in as well and whether influences he's your approach to how ye sheeting in terms of this all this kind of stuff going on the outside. When I read the script I and then I met with Peter to speak speak about it? We must be more about Britain today than about the story. So of course once you know it's not not just directing a period piece it inspires you more and you kind of try to. I mean this is what what we tried with this episode to make it look less period. Drama Lord I mean yeah the sixties helped us and we have this. I mean this Daily Mirror office and I watched original footage of the time and it was a messy place. Everybody was smoking was papers on. The Floyd doesn't feel like like longtime ago and so we we made the episode Soda Bit Less Glossy Because we wanted it to feel like it's happening again and if we didn't you know we don't watch out there are how strange dangerous forces who take over. Yeah it's a bit Darty. Yeah yeah no I absolutely get that I I love as well because this for me is the moment where you really believe the friendship and trust that has developed over time between the Queen and and Wilson when you start the season with this relationship and you go she's not too keen on him as that develops in this particular episode. He relies in her. She really needs her. And I think we can feel that even though it's through the phone and it's between London and America's big distance. She can feel that she has to declare a position very clear one and that's what he does and also in a very distinct distinct way. I mean the scene with Mountbatten afterwards. She's really angry so it's hard for her to to hide her anger. I I mean she still finds nice words to at the end but I loved the episode because she has to she has to do real politics six and She she understands how important heroic can be in the beginning of the she feels like she's she's useless she she is actually nothing meaningful to say or to do and yeah. Through Wilson's she understands that she has real power and but she can change politics it. Can you talk a lot about Charleston's who plays Mind Barton. Olivia and not seeing how you shaw conversations were around. I mean I do remember that. I talked to To alleviate about the beginning of the scene and I because we have several shots on her but one is very close and I an asset to before mountbatten enters. No the second. He ended us. Try to hide your anger and play the whole anger with your teeth and I think you can see that. She's trying not to look angry but she has to. She has to force herself nights. Exactly yeah she's amazing and What I just can say is the Charles Novia had big respect for for the other end Todman really fine. I mean it's an emotion scene for him to because his whole dream of becoming an important person again yeah just disappears within five seconds and he knows it he knows. Okay now my official life is over and he doesn't cry. It was really nice to do this scene. Because there's so so many emotions that are hidden Yeah but not hidden completely. It's a great scene because like you say he's expecting something completely different and within five seconds he knows. Okay that's it. That's it for me. I'm now going to retire. Yeah we just heartbreaking to why are you doing with. Why would you protect actress man like listen? I am protecting the prime minister. I am protecting the constitution. I am protecting democracy. A man of heart of democracy threatens to destroy told we supposed to just stand by and do nothing yes doing nothing is exactly exactly what we do and buy time and wait for the people that voted him in to vote him out again if indeed. That is what they decide to do. It's a family drama. This is about people we think we know and the research department is such a huge important part of it and also those people who go this would happen this would happen and the one and the need for the authenticity around this world is so precise yes absolutely. And that's when Lovett to work here I am. I started before I became a film. Mega was a journalist. So my approach is always research resort resort and trying in to understand the reality of my of my subject so coming to the crown was like Arriving in Paradise Behalf Anne and her team the research department they find that can find out whatever you ask them and I mean there's so many details people probably will never see. There's a lot of great cars. Yes I mean we had to. I had many conversations with Eddie my aunt director about costs and he told me different options. It's also based on research. They found out. What kind of car would Lord Mountbatten have when he's still in charge and what's his private cars so I mean it's nothing we might up and I think we even knew what Cecil Kings was so many Royce and great costs? But it's nothing that we made up. It's what what history Toda's so that's why we have all those cars in the same way in the episode. Where on is driving driving in a car with bully on the on the Stereo? That tells you so much. Bye Hard the world the period and stuff as well and kind of what kind of contractor. He's really In the same way that these cars are almost kind of visual stimulus to something or to a character or place or clever young. I mean they represent power right. I mean when the bankers are arriving at broad lands the Mountbatten's estate. Yeah it feels like nick like an army coming like dark. I am the train. The train lean training was a tricky one yet train and plane because both are builds in studio and to make it look like a real train. Journey is technically quite hot even though Oh. CGI is able to do a lot but it's still hard work to make it look like a real train see. I thought it was a train. No I'm sorry I'm sorry. Yeah I have to tell you Buckingham Palace is also not Mazen. Thank you so much what next I spoke with head of research. Only Souls Burger who explains the economic situation in the UK at the time and how that what might have contributed to disatisfaction and Wilson's government. Let's talk about this coup. Oh yeah if we can so nine nine hundred sixty seven the kind of politico economic situation in the UK is there's all sorts on these kind of the state of the unrest really. Yep So essentially this artificially high sterling issue is continuing to just reek havoc havoc. So Wilson knows that in order to keep the pound. If he's going to prioritize the health of sterling at two point eight dollars and everything was tied to taller at that point so two point eight dollars. He's going to have to get bail out all the time. There's no possible way that he can't that he can keep it. High and not beg for money from other countries because what he inherited was a deficit so the UK is importing far more than it's exporting. So they're spending a lot of cash and they're earning much cash and actually society at this point. Everyone's doing okay. But then they're spending it on more imports and so it's just like this. The productivity is particularly high England. Used to be kind of the workshop of the world and how that's died it off but it. This is inevitable thing that they're going to have to devalue the pound in order to stop begging for cash it's just not healthy. It's not viable able anymore so he accepts that in doing this. I'm not only pulling back the curtain and admitting that the UK is in severe severe financial distress. But I'm also kind of admitting that globally the UK's not that important anymore if it's not a world economic powerhouse kind of what is it so it's not a decision he takes lightly but there's no real alternative it happens. He values it In November nineteen sixty seven seven by fourteen percent so it goes down from two point. Eight two point four and this immediately damages his credibility and at a time when his government's already under attack for poor employment figures for wage freezes for spending cuts all these things that he's trying to do to not be value the pound and tax rises and then also there's a huge brain drain of the well educated younger group of this new generation. Where they're just like? I'm never going to find good work here at high wage. I need to get the heck out of here so everything goes up and and I mean it's the consequences are. There's this thing called the London Gold Pool which one of our research Daniel tried so hard to get his head around. Did a beautiful job on it. But essentially there's like a run gold after that because of sterling got valued in the The dollar would get valued and then gold went up in value and so it caused a whole domino active active of sort of global financial issues and more panic. I think than than anything but it was a real embarrassment for him because it was really as something he inherited from the Tories before they should have done it. Then as you know this government is committed to maintaining sterling two dollars eighty two the bound but with every economic blow the oil embargo balance of payments deficit and the Dhaka's unions strike. It's proving living harder and harder to maintain and I'm afraid that now we have no alternative but to devalue the only pound and need hardly say it is a matter of overwhelming regret for me personally the humiliation for the government the power that the crown has over the government and high through history. That's kind of diminished. Well because the rose very much almost used to be the reverse yes so if you go back to medieval times the sovereign sovereign was all encompassing. You know And when that started to be clearly not very healthy you had the creation of the Magna Carta and then I think partly the creation of the role of the prime minister which was the first minister under George. The first was par was due to the fact that we imported a monarch from Germany and he didn't know the system very well so there became this role of first minister and sort of help translate translate government him and that sort of when you start to see really I mean it had prior to that absolutely become its own thing but that role of prime minister that we the explore starts to become a really significant leader figure there now head of the government in a way that she is head of state. Yeah so it's actually rather complicated. Because on paper she has royal. Prerogatives powers She could free all prisoners if she wanted onto she. Could you know Disband the army but she can't because the minute she does that it's longer democracy It she no longer constitutional two two tional monarch. She is a dictator corless and for her. I think this is very important. No matter or how bad the country gets. She truly believes that. If you want to change it you got to vote. That's that's our democratic right. As our responsibility she you can advise you know she might be able to sort of indicate certain avenues that that Prime Minister Might WanNa consider but she can't don't really step into that role that has been over the last few centuries You know kind of shoring up as sort of is this head of state but somewhat powerless figurehead. It's a yeah it's it's a very complicated a position of being in this episode where where the the creators of the Ku genuinely believe that they they might get kind of almost the backing of the queen in this because the country in their mind has just gone crap you know they see my botanist their weights hard to use in him yes completely and now and they also see mountbatten. I think you know somehow. He was very forceful representative of. I think you know. It's a combination of his military background. So he's his own man as as a defender of Britain but also he has this way into the royal royal family and he was really seen by many people as great leader. Who didn't really have a job anymore? So why not utilize but for him he knew the a hurdle was. How do we convince a queen? Elizabeth T to defy everything that she holds dear and probably more so than than most monarchs. She unquestionably would not participate in something. Like that on. The notion is that who could is kind of Instigated not by a media mogul which is really interested in terms of where we are now with you know media's influence over government and in public perception and all that kind of stuff is quite interesting that this looks like it was almost the birth of that kind of ideas. Yes absolutely in an a media. Mogul who was huge Wilson Labor supporter until he wasn't anymore And that was in all honesty because he didn't get the knighthood the peerage was that he wanted sorry not night that he didn't get the period that he wanted he wanted a hereditary peerage that he could pass on and Wilson would only offer him a lifetime page and that slight she was almost enough. You know you combine that with and by all means you know newspaper moguls. They're watching they're interacting with the news in a different the way they're interacting with what is happening society quite differently in politics than the average person but he just. I think that personal slate started the to really blind him to everything and it just became about taking listen down as far as we could gather just extraordinary. We don't often often get a very heavy political episode because we often downs it with with the royal family because mountbatten sort of gives us a more outsider had a perspective but he's still in the royal family and allowed us to see a little bit more of that culture outside of a of the Royal Palace. And then you also have this storyline with Elizabeth Breath in terms of these wonderful conversations and experiences. You saw them with her kind of lifelong friend with poetry kind of thing in terms of what could have been for her. I guess if yes things have been different so at this point. We're really lucky. In how these he's parallel storylines happen. She's losing miserably at the races and she's made a lot of money from horse racing and and got her out of the house you know into the country lifestyle that she wished she had had if particularly if even just if her father lived a little bit longer she would have had more of that and She realizes under Portuguese advisement that things have to change. She's kept on all of her father staff. They're all nearing eight years old. They're going to retire. She needs to go out and look and see how the world has advanced and finally I caught up with Jason Watkins about how he approved all of prime minister. Harold Wilson in this episode episode five there the coup. Do you know news to me. I had no idea about coup extraordinaire. And Yeah we did a bit of research power that very compelling very compelling episode extraordinary sequence of events and he I think Wilson was my view between the Queen. Anne Wilson. No he was hurt by it and he shared an angry about what was going on in the background. I don't think he was surprised necessarily but he was very angry and then she she did end up supporting him point Riley. Yeah so give us a so of brief history of where Brinson turmoil. The states in the country is the proposed coup in simple terms painting painting. A picture of it. The Here's this working class. Man Coming into power. You know if you look at how McMillan and Douglas doesn't feature but I mean this it's like somebody in the previous century and this all the old money as old money in England in the UK and there's money from the Americans to prop up certain Gaps in the economy. This huge inherited a huge deficit. Eight hundred million pounds extrordinary amount at that time by deficit that means the difference between the money we get from selling our goods to what we buy in these a huge nightmare to inherit as an economist so as a rather brilliant economist taste it hurt him doubly that he was unable to prop up the pound so it was a crisis of Economics Anna personal crisis and he says the signs in the United me personally but what happened I think really was that you know the Americans. They didn't want support anymore. Because Wilson refused to support Mo- Vietnam. He didn't want to fight. He did actually send some an amount of arms to them but there wasn't that political support the Americans wanted so that was missile problem and I think the city heard they were so about get him really. I mean they were and That's not to say that to no city has changed in this community different series regulations. Perhaps who knows but I mean at that time there was this old money. bowler-hatted umbrellas in a You know morning suit kind of city sensibility. So this sort of young young upstart. He's he looks great okay but he was actually in the forties for seventy came to prominence So he was relatively young and there was you know But they despised him and worried with. This is the interesting thing I find is where I was the idea of. Maybe one of the first times that the media had tried to kind of get involved oved politics in a way and skew things oh interest in terms of looking at where we are yes does does have parallels and they you. Missile King is the head of the Middle Group reasonably these headlines to undermine Harold Wilson and his government that kind of behind this all these all. Just it's a kind of conspiracy theory all this kind of influence. Avaz makings voting certain ways and but it is extraordinary to think that in that time name the there were wheels going on in the background that we're very serious. In that time there were wheels going on in the background. That were very serious. EPSOM awesome and Whereas Mine Barton and all this because the you know they were by all accounts mountbatten was a fan of Wilson's really wasn't easy? There was a there was not friendship. A- An understanding. Yeah I think so. I mean it was a short coordinates. Aim to be sacked and that was pressure puts on Wilson and he was a decision that was made and that must have been totally made him pliable in terms of possibilities of becoming a leader of you know and it's Berlin knee expressed in the episode is named the old colonial. The colonial spirit obviously was part of his part of him and And he was the Viceroy of India. And you know he did all that stuff. But I think it's very well documented in the episode that he was not completely convinced all the way along the line it wasn't something he was jumping Out and that it was. He knew that it was unconstitutional. Even though there is obviously a clear a clear legal loophole that he could explore But Yeah and nothing that. That's that's what is so brilliant about the crown is that it explores political events huge political events from a personal point of view. Not just when act is coming remain an approach. They're given these gems to explore the time and the resources to do very well. Jane you know just seems between those was to us just extraordinary. It's warm and humorous in human and children. Yeah that's the thing is like there were eight year old. The issue of ten-year-old Certain Charleston. And he's just come from these massive events. These has a personal life with his his sibling in the four of us breath the four all of this now to left. You don't make the way out nonsense. They're Cayman Moment. Around the time I turned seventy when it dawned on me no longer participant spectator discovered them for myself. It's just matter waging and not getting in the way I have been getting in the way they don't you know secrets in this place addressing down to queen you yes. I did also funny funny little good. Hello Malaysian will grow new. Admiral planted amuses you because the situation this country is facing is anything about amusing. I think that's one of the things that connects the show to people because they have big deceased. Everyone has big diseased to make decisions to make with the with their family. MM-HMM I do like the weights almost kind of race to get to the Queen Between Mountbatten an and Wilson. In a way you know in my Barton rings. And she's busy. She goes Oh town in she seems seven just the way she so gray is a guy but also porch in that. There's a moment whatever it is. It's in that room and she's had enough of the balanced. Badgering is on the phone. And of course he in the midst of that whatever Dave radius between them twisted again. Because we think it's my own it's Wilson and he says that he's aware of it. I mean it's just one thing off another that Peter it is so good at structuring. I mean that's the thing about it as well as the tone is so unique I think is well you know. And there's this beautiful moment at the end of the of of episode five between you know it's it takes you down one route episode but then it brings you this kiss between Elizabeth and Philip but then yeah you never see the intimacy between them that off joy dramas. I mean that's drama can do and do they kiss at the end. Who knows but I mean it is is the spirits of their relationship? And that's what Peter Excels in factually based but he can shape something to give you really wonderfully Komo emotional connection and what I loved about. That moment was disavowed. Code Matin clarice. Although those wonderful scenes that they have about struggling with a marriage and a marriage whether it's in the spotlight or not but it was a wonderful echo. Fearful is the classic thing everyone talks about intelligent. Each episode is its own little Story in in it and yet it stretches across a whole series queen almost has to kind of constantly walk. This repeats in terms of where she lawns and re reacts to things you know when there's chaos going on arriving tear. She almost a lot people would say. She's emotionless but it's but it's is about her. Gt isn't it. I mean whether you feel the emotional you you you display it. They're different things but they were both leaders and could help each each other in terms of how you are both a practical you practically in your day to day dealings either as a politician as acquaintances a figurehead. Ah Wilson understood that more than more than any prime minister certainly up to that. Point to mean and Wilson was the first person to do that he understood television. Used it and and you know the the devaluation speech was not you know that was the most difficult thing but he you know. He quoted the Beatles. The understood that that one's image is important in of course with the Queen it is import- her images important. The substance is very important as well but this there are they they can help each other in the way that they could be portrayed and do their jobs better spur. Thank you so much thank you. Can we sit for another excuse gains my stride. Now I'm Edith Bowman my special thanks to our guests on this episode Christian show who Jason Watkins and any souls Burger the crime. The official podcast asked is produced by net flicks and something else in association with Left Bank. Pictures Join US next time. When we go behind the scenes of episode six toes a comedy which focuses focuses on a young Prince Charles as he struggles with hugh he is versus whose family expects him to be their similarity between my predicament? In the world. Am I listen to this family. Am I seeing who and what I am. No I have a voice rather too much of a voice for my liking. Not having voices something all of us have to live with. We have all made sacrifices and suppressed who we are. Some portion of our natural selves is always lost. That is a choice. It is not a choice. It has a duty. Subscribe Ni- Wherever you get you podcasts
Episode 3: Aberfan
"Uh Prime Minister as of an hour ago they loss of life and Van Cise at one hundred sixteen to Bizet over eighteen still missing thirty. Six of the survivors have been hospitalized. I see anymore. Victim is expected to find not alive. To make matters worse it has been reported that the north shoulder tip seven has moved and the village is ready for immediate evacuation mechanical diggers are out of action bogged down in the soggy amount. They military have been brought in to help. Given all this. I was hoping my persuade sway due to go. One of the most unfortunate things about being sovereign I have discovered is that you paralyzed. Virtually any situation walk into the very last thing. Emergency and rescue services need when they're working against the clock is a Queen Tanya. I'm not sure I agree. Children have died. Community is devastated. What precisely would you have me do? Comfort people put on a show. The crown doesn't do that and I didn't say for the show Said Comfort people. Welcome to the crime. The official Newport cast. I'm Edith Bowman and on this show we'll full of the third season of the net flicks original CDs the crown episode by episode taking you behind the scenes speaking with many of the talented people involved on diving deep into the stories. Today we're talking about episode three titled Abba Von on the twenty-first Tuber nineteen sixty six. A devastating tragedy befell the Welsh mining. Village Abba von claiming the lives of one hundred hundred sixteen children and twenty eight Adams as children under teachers began their day in the classroom. An avalanche of pit waste slid down the mountainside read from the nearby coated engulfing pangloss junior school within a matter of minutes. If you haven't watched the episode yet is you'd expect with such a tragic tragic subject matter. It's a very emotional experience but a story that the team behind the crime felt strongly that they want to tell coming up later. We'll hear from head of research on E. Salzburger who provide a detailed description of the tragedy on the events that followed nothing. Like this had a really never happened before and I don't think anything like this has happened since we have never researched anything like this. We'll also hear from the director and executive producer. Juicer Ben Cardin on the production unpassable challenges involved in foaming the episode. That was by far the hottest weeks of my filming career. It was about making sure that we raise awareness to this tragedy. Not just to people under the age of forty that definitely wouldn't know better and and also to an international national audience that that would nobody either and of course you just want to make sure you get it right but I. I spoke with BAFTA after award winning actor Jason Watkins about taking on the role of former prime minister. Harold Wilson Jason Watkins. Hello Sir how are you good. Ah We spoke to pizza. He's very adamant he was like he knew he wanted. You knew you had you the mind for this role. Will I mean yeah. I am a such an exciting series having been a fan of it And then to be considered. I've often is an architect. And when they when they pitch H.. Jobs they have to do months of work and they turn up and then they might not get it. And that's part of the and I said you know I'm so determined to get. It is par. Then that really was did research impersonations gathered at all those things and Arrived with very prepared and I think ossie Wheatley Pizza before and You know when he considered me to be part of it. There's a great of vote of confidence in that. So It was incredibly exciting prospect. That's really interesting. Don alluded research even before the part in terms of finding your heart Olsen the nerve wracking processes screen tests in and so it will be fueled by the person I'm playing and really China know him and just what I don't get it. Forget it which has happened of course in another projects where it doesn't quite work out. Where do you start? Then when you're researching where did you. Where did you begin for Harold? Well the the the obvious impersonator. He thinks the way. He's a very unusual exiting. They did some It's almost as harsh in many ways. So there are certain key sounds that you hold onto way. You look where he's from he's a regional huddersfield any move to the world so that the retain sounds and then. He went to Oxford and so his accent was flattened out. Now because at the time. Everybody's been led the Queen's English there. Everything was so. He's got an element of that. So he's a straight makes in terms of the his accent but then you workout is brain works really. I was trying. What's the rhythm of his brain thoughts? Thoughts come into his head very different to go character very different and you'll try to project from the outside aid he's coming out to you and So he was just a fascinating nine his the history of him and his upbringing. In an you know it'd be very easy to talk talk about contemporary politics. Now when you crack similarities between Harold Wilson and What is going on now? The Birth of Europe educate the Tory at the time you know he was. He was a champion of you. Yes is strange there cyclical elements to it but for me. It was China to accounts you know. I think politicians go into politics to make the world a better place. Whatever their view of I I think how Wilson was a man of principle? Yeah he's had a religious upbringing as well and Was a scout he liked rules and wanted to make the world better. I mean. His father was made redundant he was Worked in dying dying factory and then in munitions and when he was made redundant a thing that really stuck with Howard Wilson that was something that really and he didn't want that to happen and he saw the damage that he did to his father and his world and other people. So I think that that's certainly state stayed with him. So you know he was he did set out to become to make the world about the place so I mean obviously the where does that sit on at the same time. He was a royalist. So which which I think is surprising to many people always relatively buildings socialist. But he wasn't he was A modernist And although he was grey and rotund he was quite dynamic. Almost I would like to say sexy. Why haven't said that people who said yeah well? He was successful in certain areas of life. So we won't what is. was there much there for you to dive into the guards to his relationship with the Queen was documented. That was much to find on that. Yes oh I know that they got on. He liked to talk. They liked to gossip it. I think people surprised to think no that he was Roy list and what he disliked intensely was the it didn't distrust privilege. He hated despised the misuse of it. Yeah Yeah and I think that was the thing one of the things that really drove him and the sense of duty that the Queen has remade he connected with an understood and I think they had a relationship that was about service which which is which is mentioned throughout the series in into that in scenes between in them Specifically I mean those are the key things for me Can you remember the first senior. Phoned Well I remember the first casing with live. Yeah in this place up in potters bar I mean of course if done before. Oh you know you're a fan and then you end up in it then quite a lot of that But this absolutely fun boy and then you kind of like. Yeah Yeah I mean. I'm supposed to terrify gear on the week on talk about an an hour over an hour and a half to get the week on getting into character. Find The physicality and Yeah I I suppose as I said earlier about being you know sort of pitching of this. This is where it's going to count all that stuff in my bedroom is actually no-one seen any of that they need to. This is where but you have to have to play the scene. Make sure and you can only use as much of the information that you know. We've talked about earlier about research. You realize all appetite to what you're doing doing in that room with the other person and so you know you kind of forget about that in a way. Make sure you play the scene in the changes in the scenes in the And Bambang Karen the Diet is really he has this the night before He'll send you notes. Come through on email and just reminding you of a new things as well about you know about. The dynamics of their first meeting in the he was He was slightly nervous little over ord slightly. So that was easy to play at also determined and wanting to bond and you know said so the least ingredients that were Thrown in just before doing it so you kept it fresh and he did that every time every day before a particular scene and I know I worked with before But she was obviously just brilliant on the set she's just so incredibly brave and positive and brilliant and that helps not some Not Armies I'm sure other people tell you tend to get sort of serious and You know trying to stay little bubble Of Work other accident meaning Stellan skarsgard work these paces around keeps himself. He's like a case. I'm a bit like that in more Sedentary Way But it's nice to have I think that's why I live here. One of her reasons for her success is that she's very good at keeping her spirit and you see her spirit on the screen. Yeah an across work. Yeah you know. She's got this incredible Intelligence and lightness of spirit. The ASHFORD's carousels characters such a long way and let's move onto episode three and Upper von which obviously a real historical event fought with. It comes an element of I guess creative license to tell it in the crowns way but being true and very very respectful of the victims families the community But Wilson was very central to to that story line gene. And I just wanted to talk about about that an approach in that. And how you how you prepared for that really in that specific episode well Said how much we can talk about this. But I mean People do know that you know my life stories stories that we have lost a child may my wife and I think So and I knew was knew that there was going to be an episode like this and I was going to have Zahn deal with it and make sure that I was playing Wilson and not me because I was going to be accused emotional Journey so condit having having seen it. Now it's like a gift because he's so brilliantly done and I think tool bereaved parents It is an extraordinary thing a Such a sensitive portrayal and valuing so valuing this the loss of those lives than hundred sixteen children. But of course you know the cobalt. It's interesting because when Wilson comes countless daily finds out about any sort of AC. Hell I love you. Know George Bush being told him primary skill about nine eleven but he's completely alma he gets the you know He. Also that the plane goes down there and it's it's on mats which is in the in the episodes on that that he knows the amount of slurry that has come down the hill and thousand first job wartime. He was the taken in by the civil service and user worked in the ministry POW said he knew about quantities and he was an economist A brilliant economists among us worth saying. And it's a tangent slowly got the highest marks possible as a Collegian Oxford and he was always the sharpest knife in the drawer in in a room when he came uh economics which I think is surprising but so on that plane you know he realize the amount of damage that was caused so he he was They knew he was going to to see how much coal was in this. Two hundred thousand cubic yards and plus guidelines suggest that tips should be no higher than twenty feet tall now they swapped. We're starting for five times that From the colours supervise. Erekat is GonNa need someone other than that. What about? Lord Rovers said of the global. You would be notified. He's being invested as Chancellor of Sorry University today and sold nourished by the investiture. Make sure Jerry's there by tomorrow morning. We will have to be careful. This could very quickly come while Harold this. This is an accident caused on precedent rainfall political. Everything is political that the scene where he he allows himself a moment to privately. Reflect and react to what he's witnessed after he's been there and stuff is I mean ah yeah kind of almost stopped me. Breathe in kind of thing. It's so it's so point and I think that that's wonderful by the the you know Peter and the team decided to use this as a as a subject for an episode for this thing to do but I think a necessary thing to do because doc is I didn't know anything about it and died that I've spoken to talk about it to just kind of remind people by that and that will happen. I know it will because it's such a moving episode And one's hope. Is that the people of Wales the whole of wells in particular have upon hope they feel comforted by a whole nation. You know but the whole world is in sympathy with them on what they suffered and what they endured Out So that is a you know. I feel the episode is a little gift for me in my family so I hope that in a way that it's a gift to the town and to also say that you know that's there were mistakes made and that Wilson was responsible ultimately for for for the cobalt now the coal board. They made mistakes. The there was this stream flowing underneath which isn't extraordinary confluence fluence off circumstances which could not possibly have been foreseen but then some people did fairly wasn't they should have been doing something about it. This is a very complicated politically. It's a clear and that is explored as well and he's on the uncomfortableness that feels about that. I'm one of the things I think that You know this this idea of of the queen her kind of Publican. It can private person that she is an it's you know. And that's explored through her reaction to this absolute tragedy and how she do that when she deals with it and the way that she should publicly deal with on Wilson's very much the center of that story in terms of helping her negotiator as well in a way. Yes and I think if you look at the first series and you look at Churchill's paternal view on her and you wouldn't imagine that Wilson would occupy similar space but he does in in some degree in as an advisor advisor's that kicks in in this episode. That he he advises them what she should do. And I think she's probably stunned. Nothing like most people on didn't want to do what should one do. How do we all hide away? Play this in July and also having experienced himself himself having been there the weight of feeling and the emotion and the necessity for some kind of royal guidance and acknowledgement of what the of their suffering. So He's you know He. He makes wanted to good decisions. I think in his very sensitive in the way helps and and then in the end of it where. There's this gloves off. kind of honesty about how he has portrayed himself to the may-june sent wild summoned tinsel cigars you've done all that research twenty six the Garland. Yeah Yeah I'd and I don't like pipe. Smoking far prefers again. And you know this you this element persona about it and that saying that real emotion is maybe not Abbas to what had happened in Avenel though she is an emotional person that A bit of reserve is not necessarily a bad thing so yeah he was able to advisor on that and he's a pragmatist surrealist and he felt that that was good advice. This is one massive. Spoilers hoping people of what okay joining us again is only salzburger head of the Crime Research Department as you live harden pardon episode to the crime. Research Department has a significant role to play in shaping the episodes in this instance the importance of being balanced sensitive and historically insight for particular challenges. You know this show is a huge international success. There will be people around the world to don't know where whales sales or what will says and I think that's another important thread throughout the entire CDs actually as wells as relationship with the crown with the rest of the United Kingdom is really clever way of talking about that absolutely so bare basics I suppose Wales is a country entry in its own right within Great Britain as a land mass beautiful country Along with Scotland in England they make up Great Britain and Northern Rhode Island Rounds Out the United Kingdom Wales back in nineteen sixty six. How I think maybe two and a half million people versus England forty one? So it's relatively smaller Mahler. It's much smaller in population. And the Welsh have really relied on coal as a serious industry for them coal use with starting to go on the declined by the sixties. So I think it had been about ninety percent of Britons fuels worse for I think around the night in nineteen fifty by sixty s about eighty by about sixty six bus about seventy percent and they've started to use diesel and trains and oil and natural gas heat homes so things are starting to diversify five which means that Wales is really feeling the brunt of the death of the coal industry particularly for its employment of its men and under Wilson. I mean people would be very surprised is to hear this. But under Wilson there were far more coal pit closures than their wonder Thatcher and that was not due to strikes and workers worker's pay and it was just due to the decline of the industry. It was a huge like you say kind of became a problem that grew and grew as well in terms of you've gone from being You know a a Welsh issue. Yes speak to be a national issue. Absolutely I quickly. I think it's worth saying saying that. Before we really dive into the ravine event that nothing like this had ever happened before. And I don't think anything like this had happened has has happened since we have never researched anything like this that is so It fills one with sadness that you actually can't quite the crap. Even I mean I've been. I've spent two years on the subject. I still can't get over it so what happened was on the day on the morning owning of October twenty first nineteen sixty six a tip which is consists of the coal waste so the Coles dugout. There's a caller in that prevent and the Coles dugout from from the underground pit and anything that is considered waste product of the coal is taken up and dumped on the top of a mountain. which would think really inherently sounds? Dangerous I I think now. This tip was one hundred and eleven feet high when the maximum for any tip was supposed to be twenty feet high. What would also come out later is that it was built on a Spring Essentially village in in Wales and South Wales Labral van? which had I believe at that time? Five thousand people you know most of whom mm-hmm worked in or knew someone related to someone who worked in. That industry had an active volcano just waiting to erupt there. And it's visible. I mean you you look up in Green Hills and then a very very prominent black one so on the morning of the twenty first of October. It had been raining a few days before before. You add that into the spring and you have lava the tip just started to with massive force come rolling down and rolled over Penn class junior school pretty much instantly. Killing a large percentage of the children within it also took out some houses on the way teachers. In the end there was one hundred and sixteen children dead and twenty eight adults dead and it happened within. I think thirty seconds it came in just like a soon Nami and when when you look at the pictures of the devastation to the school the impact must have literally been. I don't think there's anything else you could. You could liken it to other than the soon Nami and the they they were managed to pull some children free but most of the children. It happened so fast that most children either suffocated or died of injuries. But I think suffocation was primarily the the number one cause of death and what you had after that was was just this frantic digging operation because they couldn't bring in mechanical diggers in case the weight of those diggers crushed the the children who were alive. So you had to dig with your hands for whatever was light enough that you knew wouldn't do any harm to what was underneath uh-huh you said earlier that within the the episode there's these people who've heard in undescribable loss. They won't blame. They want someone they want something to blame name for an e said the the research we've done it was an Unavo- it was avoidable. Completely wherever yeah so in sixty three they had written to the National Coal Board which had been nationalized. I suppose essentially like right into the government and said we've seen the tip slide. There's been a slight movement in their. This is incredibly dangerous. And it's right that the junior in your schools in the path coming. Please get rid of this tip and nobody did anything about and you know. It's five times a maximum height and it was built on a spring there. We're obviously anxious to this tip. And with the National Coal Board. There's a very serious tribunal That takes place afterwards longest tribunal in British history. There about one hundred thirty thirty witnesses called in the end blame was squarely placed at the feet of the National Coal Board. We have Jeffey Morgan from the National Kobo. I'm George Thomas Minister of State for Wales yet questioned whether you both accept responsibility. The national cobalt cannot accept responsibility for the weather normal levels of rainfall have created extraordinary condition. They do you know rainfall with by the national coal. That's what I want to see written on my they didn't actually Pin Any criminal liability to them. So no one got fired no one was named as like culprits to a certain extent no one had to actually pay for any of these crimes it was. I think they use this incredible phrase that you so you just cannot believe was allowed first of all the corner returned blanket verdict of accidental death. And that was established the no criminal liability but the tribunal outcome stated that the cope ability was not wickedness but of ignorant and ineptitude. Okay so in the end just to just to make matters. Even worse they still wouldn't remove the remaining tip which posed yeah. It could collapsed at a second time so in order to get it removed two years later. Two years The government government dipped into the Aberfan disaster relief fund which had been set up to to help the families and support the town to the tune of one hundred and fifty thousand pounds. To help help reach the amount of money that would be needed to clear the tip completely and the collapsed tip which was tip number. Seven was actually one of a few that were still around the Hillsides of our van. So this money was used to clear. Notch is the one that had fallen but all of the rest. That were sort of overshadowing the town on and that money was not repaid until Tony Blair's government and they did not account for inflation so they got one hundred and fifty grand back but it should have been about over a million thus disgusted. Oh my God oh my God so angry and their children you know they may have lost two out of four four so they had. Everyone was emotionally scarred. They were scarred their own surviving. Children had survivor's guilt. That fathers who worked in the coal pits had extreme guilt the day. It caused this thing in some way and and there's just no there was an was back in a time where no one had the capacity really to work through this this with them and it they labral van the kids who were who died there were called the lost generation and the people who remained would never get out of the shadow of justice extreme debt. You know death at their home in such an savage way that Yeah I can't even finish sentences when we were writing. This was back around June two thousand seventeen when the grenfell tower fire happened happened. And it's just shocking that this sort of thing. Obviously there are some differences to what happened in Aberfan but it was sort hitting the public again with such massive loss of life at felt incredibly avoidable And it that event I confirmed us why it was so important. To tell the story It had such parallels with it and I think for the country to understand that something with that level of national national mourning had happened before and actually pretty recent history made it really important for us to get the story out and the the the interest in other side of the episode sued the way that the Queen to it. And you mentioned British Steph culture and it's really interesting exploration ration- about her public persona private persona her. She is expected to react and behave absolutely on arrival at Rif sent will be received by Sakineh. Trahan left Tennessee. Good Morgan and taken by car to the school disaster site in Eh then onto the Patani Chapel for the presentation of the heroes and survivors of the disaster. Though then be visits is to the cemetery where you will lay a wreath and finally visits to the home of a local miner. Thomas Edwards who lost relatives in the disaster and and sheduled conversations with several other grieving families out trip should be proud to offer house without wishing to prompt go. Majesty you may wish to consider that this is Wales. England display of emotion would not just be considered purpose purpose. It's expected I mean. According to her deputy private secretary at the time Martin Charteris. WHO said this well after he left throw household one of her biggest? It's regrets was delaying her visit. And and it's that it's such a fascinating question. Just when the entire I mean the world is mourning and what they needed was her physical presence to almost almost validates that morning to a certain extent. If the Queen's they're commiserating misery for people something really bad must have happened the director producer. Ben Carson joins US again this time. We discussed S. the creative process. In approaching such an important event Amazon was was a significant event. And one that we We wants to tell in seasons three and well and one of the most preventable. She's of the twentieth century. I remember reading the scripts and I taught speech. I'm pretty sure he wrote in about a week. And just put up him and I I know there are certain description crown which he just goes himself in his books and he just rides and comes out and we. We hardly changed changed so that. When when you read the e felt that we had to remain traceable to those events and characters and to make sure that we showed the impact on the nation the local community and the monarch Queen? So first of all we you with the We concentrate the local community and Just to sum survivors explained. That will be doing that. We wanted that blessing. Um So we've at least they gave and we've kept them Involved right beginning and very recently they can see final screening. You then start the process of who I went to pay my respects. I went to van. We went to the site of the disaster. Half Michigan that memorial and then we went to the cemetery and that that that was really traumatic because he see the graveyards of hundred sixteen children set of parents Oldbury together and I have. I have a young son of a four year old and so we we just sat there for ages and and and really. I just felt that in well. She just grieved rainy craved and and Full of this disturbance strategy and then You know when you leave then you then you have to go into. How am I gonNA make the so slightly put with one side because he has to get into the homeless the engineering event? Where am I going to film it? How are we going to recreate this This this tip how we're gonNA recreate the slide and and so you sort of get into the mechanics of having 'cause we found a town called commandment in south Wales which is about maybe be you know not too far from avenue. South there was a school that They had just left that they built a new school. So there was actually An empty school the look similar to the the the one new real-life with in the shadow of a sort of hillside that we would have to sort of now. Add accentuate too but the geography of that time works was very as I'm sure a lot of these small Welsh mining mining towns kind of planning so that became our central point to where we would start and then it was a question of looking for I coal mine. A few are still exist. You know that Ole Miss Museums now that you can go around this big tit which we used For the civic cafeteria whether mine is come back and then we had to find a top of the coach hit which again was actually was of was a slurry tip like an abandoned one and so he said go in there and and recreate that sort of railway line they they sort of you know whether where the coal slurry was dropped and so some of that Israel and some of that is something we have to do is again in the affects and then casting was about defining actors Welsh actors just from the area. And I'm actually my dance. Well so and I spent a lot of my childhood going to South Wales to pace. Abbott Vinnie so it felt really personal. CELINDA voting rights and talking to these Welsh actors. That came in such a still a big part of their life. And what you felt was is that. That's actually they also gave permission for us to tell the story because it was about making shots. We raised an awareness. See this tragedy not just to people under the age of forty. That definitely wouldn't know bats and and I will say to an international audience that that would nobody either and and of course you just want to make you get it right we for two weeks in south Wales and I would most days I was it was really emotional. No so the point where I couldn't even act some days. I took a look at the act isn't talked him. The is and so they have to turn my back and look away so that we can have a conversation about the scene when I when I walk into the The Chapel with all the you know the bodies later it was. I mean we next we are creating real life that was by far the hardest two weeks of my filming career and it brings all sorts of emotions from your own life. And that's what we do filmmakers. We sort of you know. Probably able to tell them yes. It's the story that I remember this. Oh bats the story of Elizabeth and Annalisa Wilson and these two Wha what what happened to these people in power and how they dealt with it and I think that's what it creeps up on e the story you don't it really know where it's going to see it through the eyes of Tony Who was one of the first royal family to jump on the train? They need to go and and he turned up there with a shovel and that Schilling return they realize the we didn't WanNa get away and so we do that story. You know we see them. Walk Karan up then. And we see the effect on Margaret and the cream mom. And you know we go there with Philip that there is a little bit of slightly confronting. Some you know is any Philip. We put him there. The few knew he actually wasn't there the funeral it's really hone for us Though make us to show those elements the story without our characters there. So that's that's probably the one thing that we He did go there twice once zone and once with The crane so that was the moment. Where we you know? We took a bit of creative license to put him there to observe that moment. So we see it through those is and then and then and then you know at the end we see her visiting and then we find that later. Nut mazing seeing with Wilson. The bats the incredible situation you know she finds herself in. I have known for some time. There is something wrong with deficient. Then how else would you describe it when something is missing these meetings. Eighteen confidentially as I have never done a day's manual work in my life the the one I am an academic privileged Oxford. Them Work Lybia. I prefer brandy after for wild summoned. Ten summit chatter beyond disdain kidney pie and I don't like bugs smoking. I prefer cigars but sagoes a symbol role of capitalist privilege. So I smoke a pipe on the campaign trail and on television. Makes me more approachable likable. We can't be everything to everyone and still be true to ourselves. We do what we have to do is leaders. That's a job. Job is to calm more crises that we create that so job and you do it very well indeed. One of the many things I love about the CDs is is in particular those audiences with heart and Wilson and watching that relationship in that kind of trust and friendship and develop. I love that relationship sort of starts off. And they're not quite sure what Nico- maybe gone because they feel like they're radio from completely two different sides to track and then then they then they connect through. I sites will end the episode two and then study by three. There's a real trust and revelation. They're about each other in in this private room. which was to me is felt like it's the therapy room? Rana's it's Tony Soprano and the therapist and I think how much you reveal of your feelings. And how much is she expected to review. Show her feelings do you do you want to. I ninety one to queen that shows Aram Oceans. Do you want to not be in this. This really difficult position. She finds herself in her own place. And tonight and also is is wanting to it for twenty years. You've been an position where you're you know you're expected or can't show emotion. How does that actually affect your wiring? You know it's weird because she caught lower self to react how she would react when way she would. The natural way that she would react would be to not show emotion. It's weird isn't it. The and and it goes back there where she stiff upper lip sort of thing and he no rule weird repressed. Human beings were not allowed to show emotion that we have to force it down but then a some point you just have to any holes in your body and not enough fingers and then it just comes pouring out. It's another way And I think that's brilliant in the in this particular conflicts and I think that that Yeah I love that conversation between revelation of both of them about the truth they they are and what it is. They are familiar with him. One of the kind of the key things Matt Krohn is what people are privately. They are publicly so different. and Ah that's odds existence that we will have public faces and I probably facing Agana. Who feels really very relatable? And he did an extraordinary job von Brilliance. He's really beautiful epson. I'm Edith Bowman and my special thanks to our our guest on this episode Jason Watkins any Salzburger and Ben Karlin this is produced by net flicks. And something else in association with Left Bank Pictures Pictures. Join US next time when we go behind the scenes of episode four titled Bob Akins in this episode Prince Philip's complicated complicated relationship with his mother Princess Alice emerges when she suddenly brought to live in Buckingham Palace after being rescued from a convent in militarized Athens as you knew. Asan's is in the throes of a military coup. Yes the Foreign Office view is that we should send a came to bring your mother to England. Live here with US shoe. Yeah sure we'll agree. There's room at the in as soon as possible tomorrow. We'd call don't do this. I know you had noticed we have cameras cooling all over the place. It happens a hypnotist. Well we can't afford to have my mother jeopardize this film. We know what she's like more than that she's not of our world. Oh frankly suited to it. She's she's been in institutions most of her adult life. She's not she's not well with this film appearances of fighter. We need to be careful. Very careful on throughs new come level. Of course she should call is eighty two NBA Muslim towards the Queen. Isn't qualification enough. The Fault Grandmother Twelve Future King is subscribe. Whatever you get you podcasts mm-hmm?
Global streaming wars
"Investors shake off some corona virus fears as the World Health Organization decides whether the outbreak poses a global risk live from London. This says the marketplace morning report from the BBC World Service. I'm Victoria Craig. Good morning stocks in Asia. Were broadly higher today though. The ongoing concern about the corona virus is the risk of spreading it. Investors in Asia are trying to work out. How the outbreak could impact the economic boost. That usually comes with the upcoming Lunar New Year holiday the BBC's Krishnaswamy reports Asian markets initially slump this morning on worries that the new Chinese virus had the potential to turn into a global pandemic reigniting reigniting memories of the SARS virus in two thousand and three but they later recovered on official comments from China about how authorities are planning to manage and contain tain the spread of the disease. One Chinese medical expert has said. It's unlikely that the scale of this new crisis could be as widespread as thaws still still fears about. The potential economic impact are worrying investors tourism and travel sectors. Most likely to be affected. Businesses are also reassessing reassessing whether they need to limit to band traveled to China. Altogether Airlines taking precautionary measures. Hong Kong's flag-carrier Cathay Pacific is allowing it staff off to west surgical masks. While working on china-bound flights the worries a likely to continue over the Lunar New Year period when millions of Chinese travel home for the holidays in Singapore. I'm the BBC's charisma the swannee for marketplace. Let's do the numbers. European markets are following their Asian counterparts higher. Meanwhile the head of the OECD urged the UK to hold fire on a tax on big tech companies planned for April. He warned about the risk of a quote mess. If there's not not global agreement on the Levee seen any good shows lately if so Netflix. Certainly hopes you're watching on its platform. That's because there's growing concern about the company's slowing slowing subscriber growth. But Tom Harrington head of research at Enders Analysis says despite the slowdown much of the company's expansion comes from international markets as the growth is outside the US original shows in other markets and make them in South America and career massive spending in the UK over five hundred million are they as strong in international markets gets are they as competitive on price as they are in the US. It depends on which market you talking about. In some markets they not as competitive on price so in Southeast Asia for example they have services which are half the price in others are the latest seven the UK very competitive in price is definitely a market to market play for them. But it's also these are experienced spending more money on intact than anybody else so just works better. They're on more devices they have better carriage deals with pay. TV platforms senior. Their APP his run in front of you when you turn it into television and when it comes to other competitors for example Disney. They just announced this week that Disney plus will launch in March. How how big of a threat is Disney. On this side of the pond and other international markets is there the same kind of nostalgia that makes people want to subscribe to that service as opposed to maybe net flex but I think this space with both of those two massive services to massive libraries of very high quality Disney plus sort of aimed more of a family market there for is differentiation. That it's probably the other services that don't have that differentiation that will struggle a little bit more streaming wars seemingly just heating up Tom Harrington head head of research at Anders Analysis. Thank you after decades of civil war corruption and isolation a new leader trying to shake up one of Africa's sleeping giants but with a fresh corruption scandal this month the BBC's Andrew Harding asks whether Angola is really on the mend. I'm sitting by the waters edge here in the center of Luanda around looking out across the bay and it's hard to imagine a more revealing panorama in all of Africa behind me. The half finished skyscrapers testament to this country's fading oil. Boom in front of me. There's a marina packed with hundreds of millions of dollars worth of luxury yawns in Angola on lead. The politicians can afford those kinds of the ads with me here on the waterfront. Is the Anti Corruption activist Rafael File Marquez. It has not only become endemic corruption. But the way of life the fact that people are speaking out is a sign of how much Ashley's famous be. Isolated authoritarian country is suddenly trying to change. The man responsible for the new mood is president. Shout consume being sworn in stunned many angles by quickly turning against the family of his predecessor. Eduardo dos Santos Spears forgot. Nassir latest shock state television. Announcing The dos Santos's daughter Isabel known as the richest woman in Africa is having her accounts and assets frozen after being accused of cheating the state over a billion dollars. She insists she's innocent. So what's going going on. Here is really serious about fighting corruption or is one alleged kleptocracy simply being replaced by another. My sense is this. This is a country trying to transform itself and a combination of oil price crash and then change of leadership has really driven them. I think to to reassess the situation. This is Jessica hand the British Ambassador to Angola when you look at the way that other African countries have changed over the last fifteen twenty twenty years ago has left behind. I think they're very conscious of that sunset and the fancy buzz by the Marina. Prepare to welcome back and goalless wealthy elites but this is a country braced for change an African giant struggling to build a faira future in Luanda. I'm Goin'. I'm the B._B._C.'s Andrew Harding for marketplace and in London Victoria Craig with the marketplace morning report from the B._B._C. World Service.
63: Kyle K/Growth Science
"All MUSHROOMS ARE FUNGI. But not all fungi. Pretty much. Welcome to Oregon rooted. I'm higher peaks and this lady Sativa. You're listening to the dirt. Show where we bring you. Organs Cannabis Culture Pop to the dirt show higher peaks Sediba and ladies a TV is sick damn kids walking petri dishes poetry will the whole damn family is sick so never fails. Yeah and so. That's not the corona virus that I hope. Not Some lame. Everybody acts like it is around here though but That's part of the reason why we've had this. Little break also have had some. Rss Feed problems. I've had to try to iron out. I don't apparently some of them are ironed out because he check for me tonight. Yeah but It just basically the titles of my podcasts have been just the dirt show. We're just the dirt show right now and a couple of the plot a few the platforms had some issues. I guess but it seems like they've got an iron down so you said it was having a problem podcast addict and worked just fine for me. Yeah so podcast. Addict was one of them so anybody. That's on podcast addict. If you can't play the episode tried downloading it and then you said it played in an would play. That's no bullshit. I don't. I'm not trying to get down so Yeah but just disl- let people know so now. We're back on schedule. This one came out late of course but We'll be back on scheduled for Tuesdays. Caso looked forest this coming Tuesday. Well Tuesday's like Monday night is when he starts Tuesday morning about three o'clock in the morning is when it gets released. It takes like two or three hours on this feet again. I don't know what I'm doing wrong but I'll I'll get that figure it out so ain't gotta lie to kick it. He is up until three to four o'clock in the morning doing that for the love of my listeners. So let's quickly just get through this. I know you're sick and we gotta get on. We had a great interview coming up so I just want to mention it says here on News New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg. You know that this is one of the presidential candidates. He's making moves. He discussed that marijuana use. This is an interview. He said he would support it but he said it would increase domestic violence and would mean letting young people this is quote. Young people ruin their future. So wow he's going to support it but I I have nothing. Oregon is organised. Everybody's ruined my soapbox to the side tonight. I'm for that Shit I'M NOT. I'm not trying to get you ruffle my feathers. No we'll go onto the next one so major league baseball they you know. They had release recently removed. Marijuana from it's banned substances right which is pretty cool. Nfl won't but a top official clarified new memo. That players are still barred from being sponsored by or investing in the cannabis industry which is funny. Because maybe I can see sponsoring but investing in. Are you serious? That's pretty cool. Not being able to not being able to no. That's not cool. You are sick or yeah. I'm sorry all right so I hope it. So I could read along. Also says the cannabis industry and team. Doctors can't recommend medical marijuana. That's not surprising now. I guess it's always. It's always been that kind of medical cannot recommend says however the? League is launching a program to test and certify CD products. I imagine that's for use. I guess I'll sing is that's federally legal. They can't keep them from doing that. I suppose yeah I just know what they mean by. Test and certify so Okay maybe make sure there's very low. There's absolutely no. Thc whatsoever like it has to be under the legal zero. Well they actually now. It's like the legal in Oregon has been raised just a little bit so it's more realistic. So if it's two percent and below it's within the legal limit of Like hemp is what they're looking for. Yeah because it like the point. Four eight percent for. Thc is so unrealistic for so many hemp farmers that they they like you have to nail it just right so a lot of them had come in and complained that That they're they're they're raising because of how much of a strife it was to nail that has to be one hundred one percent and so like when you see stuff that's like point four. Hey it's amazing. I mean industrial hemp. I think you know the stuff that goes ten foot tall and then doesn't spread out or anything as far as I know. That's like zero zero but no one grows. That should think anybody tries to smoke. It is what it is. They're like. Nah Man sticks the. Us Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit ruled that the smell of marijuana emanating from a house is sufficient evidence to quote search the entire House for evidence of marijuana possession including any safes unlocked boxes. Now I went. I'M NOT GONNA go into much detail. But here's what I did see. Is that basically? This gentleman had apparently probably with smoking joint but he threw it out his trash can or was smoldering the trash can or something and cops had come to his house for something in smell the marijuana and were able to secure some sort of warrant based on the smell and then we're able also surge his quote unquote safer locked boxes. I'm not sure what it was and found a gun. I believe which then of course exponentially made it worse and this so now he's a drug dealer. Yeah and this goes back to. I guess the states that are still illegal because that wouldn't necessarily happen in Oregon. I don't know if that could happen because the smell of marijuana is everywhere and I walk out my front door and marijuana and it might not be mine but this is a big deal and I guess people can look this up to get all the details but man I mean this is obviously it was a big court case and And the ruling that it was okay for them to get this warrant based on smell is fucked up. Yeah it'd be honest so I can understand if you smell a meth lab. Coming then yeah. Please write issue a warrant break into the house. But that's because I don't want that shit blown up that close to my house happens and that's just too much speculation if you ask me. Yeah exactly this is funny. The Department of Veteran Affairs Veterans Health Administration tweeted. Marijuana natural equals safe right. Not necessarily. Here's what I want to tweet back. Vicadin prescribed by your doctor given to you by your pharmacist. Equals safe right. Not necessarily where they're coming from. But I mean this is just a well done tweet round of applause whereas my thing. I wish I could find good enough. Okay all right and that's pretty much it. I mean the states. They're all trying to pass medical stuff. But I mean it's just a bunch of bills going through so really that's it next to the fact that. Hey let's throw some Let's though some health in there right. A study found that medical cannabis offers a possible. Clinical advantage in fibromyalgia patients al-jabah especially in those with sleep dysfunctions. So another study. I know we mentioned. There's always trying to find studies that are coming out like this. So that's why I mentioned in pretty much every time but so fiber Maoz. You check that one up. I mean that's a pretty bad one for pain. Yeah it is definitely I. I was reading ahead at the same time seeing. What's good and cool we? We know you're not feeling so. Let's just move on so I had Kyle Kozinski on now if no one remembers Kyle. Cow was grow science originally from the interview. That was quite a few interview. I believe that's twenty twenty episodes ago or so so long ago. Actually if I'm correct episode thirty three so that was that was way back But it was a great episode and I had a great talk with him. Now Kyle is still head of rnd with grow science so this is essentially what he's doing now but he's doing a lot of other stuff to his now also as certified crop adviser for the ASA or the American Society of Agronomy. So he's doing the soil science hardcore still at crony agronomy Am I have to look at that? Actually why don't you look that up when I'm talking with that? Definition is now. He's also. He's a consultant as well. He's started a business. With a few other consultants a biological consultants actually in it's called Mica fight solutions and that's using Basically fungi to improve agricultural situations Mike logical uses for growing mushrooms. Like say on waste products stuff like that bio remediate so as you know or I know fungus mushrooms and cannabis both or bio remediation so they will pull heavy metals toxins from the soil. Which is one reason why you should be very careful with your heavy metals and pesticides and stuff with cannabis. And you know now that mushrooms are coming around the summary. I have to look out there as well And also just to mention he's also now is writing a book or CO authoring. A book called the microbiology of Cannabis. Which is real. I think it'd be cool And that's fungus related to cannabis and bunch of stuff there now. He's already done his first draft. They're like he's already hit first benchmark on so I mean he's he's pushing full forward so I think nearly there. Yeah and so once. He comes out with that book. I think we'll have him back on and we'll be able to talk about that nice so he's doing a ton of stuff now on this episode we talk about Rust Fungus K now. I think of promise this episode for like a year. Now we've been searching for someone to talk about with it. Well not only that. But it's just this fungus issue and you know. I put the quote at the first of the episode but bottomline is you know fungus. Is these pathogens. I should say are affecting us more and more in these states that have him. Especially here. You know we're seeing these new bugs aphids. We're seeing these new pathogens. They're coming through because of this monocropping in and these big farms that are butted up next to each other and such so we talk about that the rust fungus issue specifically about how I dealt with it and his his feedback and and I gotta say I can understand how a lot of that stuff gets pushed around southern Oregon. Yeah because we are in a bowl valley just gets moved around and like One of my coworkers had mentioned saying it's the worst. This is the worst air I've ever breathed took a breath of since you know I've lived. I even lived in La. I'm just like okay well. I doubt that it's that bad. You know just because it has a lot of pollen. Count doesn't mean our air is horrible will know in our air can get pretty bad at times as being in a boat but we do get a lot of airflow through here because we are still. We got ocean wind coming in so you can smell the ocean coming in. I'm pretty sure that the air that we got here moves out to -solutely absolutely by the definition of agronomy is the science of soil management and crop production. There you go so it's exactly. It's exactly what I expected me to. He's very smart. When it comes to soil science in interview we wrap up talking about his use with a psychedelics. And you know we talk back and forth about some things concerning that so it was a great talk OPE. Everybody enjoys it. We will see you this Tuesday again or will be releasing the next episode Tuesday hopefully lady. Tv's not sick by then heavily. And hopefully since I'm not the I haven't been sick yet that I am you know. Hopefully I'm not sick by then although some fun something all right. I'm not sick. What are you talking about organ? Love Oregon love stay rooted confidence he. I'm currently serving as head of research and Development for growth science nutrients I also recently became certified crop adviser through the American Society of designing me. So you know a lot of grinding me work. I guess that probably is more Influential on the hand side of things versus like indoor grows recently with a group of people started a group or biological consultants hold Mico fate solutions. And there I said we're a team of biological consultants and we really focused on utilizing fungi to help improve the environment. So that includes everything from agriculture. To Mike Allergy. You know people just ending mushrooms on waste products and whatnot and then also bioremediation word so using fungi or plants to help remediate dominated areas whether they be contaminated with the trillium based oils or a heavy metals. It just depends or biological contamination. So yeah that's microphone solution and then I'm also currently working on a book with a partner of mine. He's also part of micro sites rations named Brandon Potter and we are working on a book called my college of Cannabis so we went to school together to study my college and We met here in the lab so we met there and just Kinda. We're both really interested in on giant really interested in candidates you know and we kinda bonded over that and we're just spit on him and they have you know what I think. I'm going to write a book. Called the College of candidates to talk about you know cannabis fungi and interactions and whatnot. And it was like yeah. That's a great idea. Like you WANNA partners like yeah. Yeah that'd be awesome. So we kind of teamed up from there you know it's been a few years in the words and we just finished our first rough draft of it so you know it's a milestone. I guess for us. It feels cool and in that would go into more about later but it kind of outlines all the different ways That fungi interact with cannabis. Plan so everything. From soil de composers to micro fungi and Finnick fungi and then obviously pathogens. Well such as hotter Milton. Try this and so on and also just like why. Fungi are so important in agriculture. So that's kind of a background where I'm at currently. We'll thank you. We appreciate that. Obviously you have a much experience in the fungal world. Now you know as a podcast. We've moved on into What I think we would call a while. We've deemed psychoactive plants and and Entheogen stuff So we really are looking at Nali cannabis but actually mushrooms and those types of things. And how they affect us You know mushrooms are very. I've said this a couple of times but mushrooms are so potent you know they can be food. They can be a drug and they can kill you very very clear lines there too so so mushrooms and fungus has this really big effect on everybody When you talk about cannabis. Is there a relationship? I know that cannabis runs on. Indo micalizzi types. It's not an echo thing it doesn't you know having a bed necessarily doesn't benefit you deserve. Does that is that true as far as we know and as far as Research and literature has shown it is only Endo Mike rises that are able to intact canvas. I don't as far as I'm aware there's been no reports of actor. Mike Iso Fungi infecting cannabis. Which in general that would make sense because Endo my garage. The are more so for you see them more commonly with annuals or grass crops whereas actors is kind of known more so for. What are your plans? Dreams of them. so yeah maybe in the future will learn something else but yeah yeah so now. We briefly touched earlier before we started the podcast. We touched about the fungus affecting cannabis and this is something that's happening across the state. You've seen it in Eugene gene. You've seen different fungal issues. That you've been able to either isolate or at least identify and we're seeing also in southern Oregon when it comes to fungal issues. Do you think this is something? That's going to be an issue soon. I mean Oh yeah I mean I mean I think are you know but yeah sure especially with him you know. That's a big deal and now people are growing. Acreage is Of cannabis thousands of acres of candidates and their MO- The farms are much closer together so the spread of these pathogens can happen and now defunct these particular pathogenic fungi. They have a host plant to go on and Yeah so I think the more cannabis cultivation that we see the more we're GonNa see various pathogens that maybe we haven't really encountered before I often wonder I often wonder with fungal diseases to if we haven't seen him and just didn't know it like you know with like that's a good question. What what is a good way to deal with this fungus before it hits so yeah I suppose it depends on which particular funny is. You're talking about You know there are some rod general things that you can do that kind of like help. With all fungi. But I think it is good to identify you. Know what what the organism is that is causing this as soon just so you know because for instance If you have a particular fungal pathogen and you're able to identify. Maybe the treatment for it is the same because but long as it is but maybe you know tomatoes and as long as can also exist on your tomato plants so now you have an alternative hosts that you have near your cannabis plants and maybe you're spraying your your shit. This fungus just keeps coming back. It's because it was also on the committee so there's one particular reason why I think it is. It behooves us to identify the organism that causing the damage. Now Yeah there's there's a broad range of severity of incidences and Mike how that's GonNa Affect your crop for instance Powdery mildew can be dealt with. It's not pleasurable. You know it. It sucks you can go with that. Whereas some of these like few Syrian. Well like they're gonNA take out your plan. Your whole prop in like a week or something right so yeah I really. It really just depends and down a lot of these soil borne. Fungi that are pathogenic cannabis. We haven't necessarily seen as much in the past I think is a great example of that Brazilian things like that where we see them in the past but now that we're planting into native soil in particular with him you know These diseases are being expressed more and more frequently and I think that part of it is. Those fungi were in the soil. Always President and a lot of it on May also be due to the particular environment making it march conducive so these fungi can attack these plants. Maybe the plants are stressed out or unhealthy. A lot of this past year were stress out and unhealthy And Yeah I in particular. If you get queer rather cool dance soils and water logged. Some those are like crime. Conditions for these pathogens. Just take off and wipe out crop So I think that in the future Reading is going to play a big role in fungal resistance or implant resistance to fungi But that's just now where we're at right now. I think right now. People are mainly breeding for So it looks good on instagram and smells good insurance the but You know people say they They WANNA breathe for like powdery. Mildew resistance try this resistance. I think people are starting to. It's definitely the breathing. Process is not easy. It's absolutely Mike My Concern. Is that these people have to treat these plants with fungus issues. And so do you know of any type of treatments that would classify as organic and the reason I ask that is because with cannabis. It's a medicine is going to be tested by here in Oregon And I know that when I got the rust one of the reasons I kind of identified it as rust was because it was systemic meaning. It was not like pm or it was on the surface of the leaf. It was in the plant. Which again led me to believe. It was rust because when I treated it with saint things like steptoe my season and You know I used east several bacteria. It would work for a week and then it would stop working. It would come back again and then I finally did a nuke bomb of the garden fos. I don't know if you've heard of that. I'm not familiar with that. It's made by Monterey and it is a a a mono and DI Potassium potassium salts of phosphoric acid. And so because that stuff is systemic. It actually took care of the problem it did. It actually wiped it out at the very end on these plants. I I really fought for for months and then At the end I said okay these plants. I'm not going to consume. I'm going to do testing on and so I use the garden. Fos in it already said on the label that it's systemic basically gets in the plant and its version of phosphorus it is the nutrient phosphorus. It's not usable by the plant but it is uptake in the cells and it works the thing. That really is scares me as like I don't know even with the research I did after this. I don't know if that's healthy to consume because if you look at Ms Ms d what does Ms D. S. sheets yeah there's not a lot of information on combustion of material. Oh Yeah Right. That's a great point. That's a great point out. Yeah there's hardly any right so when I looked up this phosphorus material this chemical or whatever you wanNA call it There was no information. Really on the F- what would happen if you combusted. It what I did find. Is that when you like and the MS Ds sheets that said when you had a fire in your building this is what would happen. And that produced phosphorus oxides which are Known as a carcinogen right so the best. The best thing I could say is that when I used that material if I was to burn that cannabis afterwards is that that phosphorus would probably still be in there and it would produce phosphorus oxides and it would probably be unhealthy. Yeah ooh yeah. That's that's a great point workman. Yeah Yeah No. That's great. That's great and I think that In that instance. Better be safe and sorry this straight and so. I know that Saas Bite you know Fox. Bait and thoughts fight is Anti Fungal compounds whereas phosphate is a nutrient So maybe it has this garden sauce product. Maybe it has something to do with that. I ought to look into that more. Organic product is that Ganic us. We'll see so here's the thing. It wasn't Omri listed but when I did the research it was listed as organic. It's almost like the whole. It's almost like the whole full spectrum. Thing what your. What is your definition of organic so like? I said it wasn't Omri listed on the bottle. But if you did. Research wasn't organic product but it has been used in vegetables with the research that I did. It was used in vegetables. That's where they did their tests early in the nineteen hundred on this phosphorus. They detest were. Because it's still the nutrient phosphorus. They thought they could use it as a nutrient and be used by the plant in a way that would be that would normally use phosphorus and what they saw these tests that it did get uptake by the plant but it was not used in terms of nutrient uptake into cells. And it was you know. Had this fungal activity going on or whatever but but it was not a nutrient to the plant and the other sting was that phosphorus can be used up by a plant but not this form of it so once in it. It doesn't get used up necessarily okay. Does that make sense? Yeah yeah it really sounds like phosphide me and to back up for a minute. I guess just to clarify 'cause you know with with my current position now Company and Whatnot Organic talking about that and organic registration and what that means so. Fertilizers are not organic. They are registered for use in organic production and then the tomato or strawberries that you grow that can be certified as organic by the US right And as far as being allowed for you thin organic production rate so there are various agencies that will register products all of these agencies they follow called the NLP standard the national organic programs. That were these standards and that has a list of ingredients that you can use certain like organic compounds cannot be used. I can't think of any examples right now but there are certain synthetic compounds that are allowed for insurance for example Attacked HIM HYDROXIDE DOT Org. That's synthetic but that is allowed to be used When you are extract when you're extracting out when you're making a help extract you're allowed to use it has hydroxide so if you see a product that has a super high in the N. P. Kate values the last numbers really high. It's probably because they use a lot of potassium hydroxide and that product can still be considered organic earth. It can still be allowed for use in organic production right Same thing with poss- forecast and and fish products yet and then. Cfa with the Washington State Department of Agriculture. They all kind of have their own organic program and you can register. For instance in the State of California we register our product and then we register with the Department of Agriculture and then we also register with their own. I on their organic input material. So that is one way that growers can be getting kind of vet products to make sure that they are allowed for us. If they are growing inorganic will recently. That's become a big thing is. I've seen a lot of bottles going not only for the on relisting but also the CD FA and such and Okay Yeah Toy. So lifetime. Neither didn't and my a point I wanted to make is just because they has these labels not make them necessarily a better or even a safe product a lot of organic materials. They're going to be high in heavy metals. Just due to the world we live in and bioaccumulation depending on what the organic material is. So I'm not saying don't use them. I think you know. I think organic products are great and they dress for reason I guess just be skeptical and do your research right and talk to the companies and ask them for Lab reports for having that a parts and all that stuff absolutely will and that's my concern like with this garden fos. I don't know that. Oh el-sisi can even test for something like this because it is a nutrient and so if that's the case if a farmer knew this and they wanted to save their crop they could spray this stuff on their whole crop. You know and I hate to put this out there as info because we're going to hear this right. Oh why can use this to kill that shit and then it's not going to be tested again. That's speculation. I don't know what all right see but in my logic is says that if it's a nutrient they're probably not going to catch it right and So I'm concerned there. I'm concerned with the large amount of hemp. Like you said like these problems are now popping up Jackson. County is one of the largest counties of hemp growers in the State during the summertime. Literally you can't drive pretty much anywhere outside of the city and not see 'em fields everywhere. Oh yeah and so like yeah absolutely so you're pointing out. I think all these problems are going to crop up so to speak Because of the amount of volume just plant material that is being produced in its a monocropping situations. Not even. We're not talking about like Jackson. County has really turned into frigging vineyards. And we'd and I'm concerned about all that stuff because that's not always at monocropping but a whole host of problems. That could come up with them. Yeah Yeah Yeah then there. Yeah Yeah there's a lot of the issues with that. I don't even know where to start with that one. Yeah so what's your opinion. How like when I got my plants going this last year. I think the reason I picked up the rust is because yeah. It's probably in my yard somewhere I imagine or my neighbor's yard or something but It was when it was cold nights and warm days and I think pulling my plants because I I have to transition between indoor to outdoor because I don't grow indoor but I like right now we're making seed selections and the Okay Come March. We're GONNA I'm GonNa Start Indoors and have all my seeds going indoors and then come. April may start harding him off and bring him out right then. I'll go outdoors so I don't even know everybody doesn't do my method meaning that not everybody's GonNa Start Indoors and outdoors. But I think that is if people do do that. That is one of the biggest ways to be able to pick up these fungus issues and then another point I want to make real quick is that I didn't realize it at first but when you water your plants a lot of times I mean most the time you don't want to share that water you don't want to. I guess when I spray a plan I don't want to spray the plant next to it. You don't want that stuff touching. Oh I see what you're saying. As far as yeah transcending the most. Fungi are producing sport. You know on relief issue they'll be producing spores and they're a sexual spores that are referred to can Nydia And they're wins. They're spread by wind. You know so the water. Yeah sure but if you if you see like sports on the surface of the tissue it's likely are all over all the plants you know. I was able to isolate the plants though I was able to literally take the infected plants straight up just Burnham and okay and then also too with my research it was saying that you need to like keeping plants looked week for the first like June in June June. My plants look really bad because I was staying ahead of the death like I was clipping leaves. Every day I stay ahead and it actually worked. It actually worked to get rid of it so it was like it would start in certain spots and then it would become systemic and work. Its way through the plant but if you were able to stay out of it it was okay not okay but I nonetheless I was able to save about six plants out from feeder corn. Seed thing too is that I only grow from seed because of several reasons but one of them being the bigger and the health and the fact that I have the time you know. I don't mind starting in February to have a crop in November and so that seed time has really is the only not benefit of that is pheno hunting all the time. I'm not always guaranteed the specific cut. Or whatever pheno this you know I'm going to get You're GONNA have some different than other. People may not have right and You don't have to keep mothers and you don't have to take I grow from seed as well and I prefer that and I you know. Make the two men I I preferred that way to grow. Yeah absolutely as you're in a commercial facility. I understand why people aren't taking. I understand it but me personally Yeah in the in. The fact is is that I've had a couple of farms I've talked to that actually got wiped out by some sort of fungus wasn't identified but had I mean hundreds and hundreds of plants wiped out what what was really weird with the rust fungus and like I said I'm pretty sure identified it. It started out looking. This is going to be funny but it started out looking like a a deficiency. It looked like a cow MAG which is funny. Because that's like everybody's answer to everything right like GonNa problem through some CALMAC on it. Just going to call them is right and joke and then three yeah and so it was funny because when I saw it I'm like oh I got a CALMAC deficiency but we've been growing for twenty years. I've already got that shit nailed I shouldn't have a CALMAC deficiency right right and but it looked like that but then it turned into actual look of rust where the lease would just turn this Golden Red Brown and they would just eat up right from the out from the from the radiuses of the leaf right in into the like the last spot it would just work itself. Inwards seemed yeah. I wonder if that was like a lease spot. Fungus like alternate area alter not It could be your pictures. Do I do have pictures. In fact I've been waiting to put this episode out. I think this episode for us is going to be key but again being a grand plan. We're talking when that started. They were probably on say nine inches tall and there were probably February. Probably at least two months in Do did you see anything like Some sort of my field growth like Where the stemming soil anything like that? No the that's the other interesting thing is there was no like fungal type of indications like there was no you know what I'm saying like there was no Real specific fungal indications it just literally like my plants got cancer overnight and I literally it has bloomed into this kind of an episode where we I'm actually talking about it with people talk. I mean that's due to the crowd. Ray Right and it being illegal and people not being in the research that actually just in rust fungus on your google search bar there is not a lot of info out there. So it's common in wheat. Yeah Crop What else is in barberry feeling is alter Russell weird on so all again. I could be mice identifying so this might be. I think I can't pay for certainty but it sounds like so some and we'll taking Kinda 'cause this you look up tiger striping in hop plans. Oh God by few cerium. Yeah that could be or leaf spot. I'm not totally sure You know without seeing it not. You're moving the plants indoors and outdoors. I'm assuming they were not like in outdoor native soil In there in like innards of some sort of media. Yeah I was using a one gallon and I got sponsored by Earth organics last year. Oh Yeah Yeah so. I used guy soil which is actually to be honest. I'll be honest right now. I'm GonNa say this and not edited. You know using grow science and using good earth organics guy soil significantly improved my crop last year out. I'm just going to note that it really. We probably doubled my. I think I actually mathematically doubled my volume on my plants. Wow well that's awesome. That's good to hear good to hear but you know my concern is I really wanted to turn that soil over because when I was talking with good organics they said that you know with this type of soil. You can get rid of about thirty percent of it you can remember it you can build it back up and you can recycle and this is really something. I wanted to do but now. I'm a little scared recycling that soil. Yeah totally I mean. I mean Another issue that are GONNA have to pay as there's a Lotta doubt. They're not a lot but there are facilities out there that are running organic living soil no till quote unquote programs and you know. They reuser solar cycle after cycle. And I. I've seen at least one of Bad It have. I believe they were calling it a few cerium well. I guess that they had diagnosed. I don't think I ever saw it right. In that instance. Yeah they kind of have to replace on that soil otherwise there is a chance that you may get again now okay. Let's say we're a hemp farm and we got sand and soil and you lose a quarter of a crop to for Just can't replace all that soil so there but there are still methods to remediating that soil and trying to remove the fungus Because and this is not a problem with candidates it's also problem with other agricultural crops that we doing more research and experience with so I guess it doesn't apply to you as my again if a farmer to get Wanted these borne pathogens in there. Some I mean okay so the way it used to be used as called methyl bromide which I believe that's illegal in the United States is now but that would kill everything Other methods include like Dampening the soil. I mean we be talking about acres right and then putting like classic BICYC- sheeting over the top of it and kind of baking. That soil called soil solarization- Another matter that people use is totally flooding the field to create an ANAEROBIC anaerobic area. Because a lot of these drive require oxygen to Rohan function. So now they're creating an anaerobic environment for a while and then you know emptying out so there are ways to deal with that. Why in your situation? Yeah and may make sense just to get into soil or something like that well or new soil you. Could you know sterilized just in like a pressure cooker or something like that if you're concerned about it That's interesting so there is options. If you know if if like for me it might be possible to run a few. You know three hundred gallons of soil Whereas someone else might not you know if you're running that that's that's why I think about it. I run I run thirty five. I run thirty five gals. I don't like to go but I run thirty five gals and I run ten. So do the math. Three hundred and fifty pounds. That's a significant amount of soil really. Yeah it it So yeah I'd like to be able to turn it over. I'd like to be able to take a third out and re amend and and make it work And actually have some experience without but it's just really It's a scary thing at this point. I'd rather start over so right right. So in that instance you know hypothetically if you want to say you're in thirty five gallon pots and three of them were contaminated or whatever. I suppose you could just water the pots and then put like Saran wrap something like that over the top and kind just like basis pots and kill everything and then re with you know every yeah just start essentially yes start building it again and I'm okay with that. Here's what here's the thing about. Thought about that and what logically speaking. It seems like if I've cured the plants which I did then. Shouldn't the soil be cured? Not necessarily the plant has its own immune system you know. The plant just became somewhat resistant to that particular fused area. But now you're growing from seed again so there's a chance that maybe you're gonNA grow it plant and among us is there and then we'll get. I don't know you know there aren't you? Maybe and that's and that's the whole thing. That's why we're I'm trying to have these conversations with people that have some knowledge like you know about fungus because man this like I said he can get you high can feed you or it can kill you do okay. So we can sidetrack from here is is. Are you good with all that information? Is there anything else you want to add to the The fungus issue soil passenger. Okay so Well to touch back on southern Oregon being the Mecca for him right right I think. Another another factor that we are another factor for transmitting. These fungal diseases or fungal pathogens is all the hemp workers. You know going from farm to farm to farm detractors alive the tractor work is contracted out and those tractors are driving through the soil. And they're going to the next. Dr Do that soil. So yeah just want people to be aware I G- asked the different ways that fungal diseases can be transmitted in best to be smart about it and you know. Prevention is definitely the way to absolutely and I and I know that indoor growers have incorporated all kinds of ways that they have their workers or employees or whatever or themselves like I know an indoor grower that you walk through a little thing of. I think it's bleached but He makes you walk through this puddle of essentially. You know what I'm saying. So there's a lot of growers use different methods or multiple methods to keep things is sterile as possible. I am like you pointed out. I don't think that a lot of outdoor growers are You know an outdoor growers. If you've got a few acres you might have you know quite a large team It's probably not necessarily three or four or five people. It might be ten fifteen or twenty Coming in out every day so I've seen pictures on like instagram and facebook and stuff of people growing mushrooms. Right with their cannabis. Plants is there. Is that just a poly culture type situation or is there some benefit? They're like okay so we've been talking about time trying how they can ruin our candidates crops and how they can be totally devastating right. Well they can also be very beneficial now So I guess just to be clear. All MUSHROOMS ARE FUNGI. But not all fungi. Pretty much right. So there's a distinction between fungi. Mushrooms I not that you said anything but just like cleared that up because I know that sometimes it's like wait the difference between the fungus. Well so let me make this clear. I think is that not. Everything has fruiting bodies grant so the mushrooms the fruiting body. Right certain fungi. Yeah exactly exactly yeah. There are a lot of fungal pathogens that exist in the soil by in a healthy so system. There's also large community of beneficial fungi. Number of these fun calling staffer pitic fungi. Meaning that they're just degrading and breaking down dead organic materials. So if you have any bit of organic matter in your soul you likely have some separate pitic. Fungi in there as well So those are very beneficial tag culture because those fungi are breaking down these complex organic molecules and potentially releasing a number of different enzymes into the soil environment and interacting with the plan and other micro organisms. That are down there in addition to that. And then you know. Hopefully this healthy fungal community in your soil. And then you'll have ideally Health humidity of Fungal naming toads. That are eating these dying cancelling them and then excreting ways in a print available form or earthworms they also like to eat these though mentors. Fungi So in that way. Then we're creating that whole soil food. You know Dr. Elena she's a big proponent of that And Fungi play a key role in that. So a lot of those dollars is bad. I was talking about Scott and you won't necessarily see them The most famous one is gonNA be Penicillin That is a soil borne fungus. That happens to produce a secondary metabolite called still and that What Alexander Fleming discovered around World War Two times so a lot of the itself in addition to breaking down organic compounds in the soil while they also produce metabolites that may benefit humans. Besides your in front plant In their number of other examples sure it is that something that we're researching. Is that something that is on the forefront possibly of mushroom or fungal research no You know that'd be bio prospecting and it's very different. It's like a needle in a stack right there. So many young organism that haven't even looked at each organism produces so many different compounds and different compounds in different environments. So it's just like I'm not saying we shouldn't be doing it but it's hard to convince people with money that they should be spending it on that. When there's it's not a guarantee that you're going to get a result they know but we can also take that to an extreme And I think this covers you know fungus and stuff as well as that. They can actually be psychoactive medicines. That might be up for debate but Fungus has a lot of ways of showing itself as a psychoactive or Consciously changing your you know Mental State Not necessarily for the worst but maybe for the better Is that something that you agree with or yeah yeah absolutely? That is something that I yeah. Yeah that's definitely something I agree with I think that in general yeah. It's amazing the different things that they do You know soy sauce red beer. That's all fungi Yeah L. E. was derived Albert hopping discovered it and that was derived from an end of physics fungus that grows on rabbi and actually produces the little square ocean on their Reich or no Ergot quadriceps her perea that is a fungus and then they got is like a common name and Albert. Hoffman was looking for earth contraceptive. I can't remember exactly what he was looking for. Accidentally discovered the so. Yeah and then others like mushrooms such as Salafi ammonites miscarry right which is interesting because I often wonder how much of these fungal fruits or or funds has been involved with us over the Millennia. I don't I don't WanNa get into like I don't WanNa get into anybody's religious positions but at the same time I mean. We've had this relationship with plants that is extended way way back And we've seen evidence of Psychoactive use as far as sixty thousand years ago. So I I often wonder how much that has added to our evolution. Even if you only want to say it's you know you know ten thousand or twenty thousand years whatever Are you familiar with this? Down to eight hypothesis by Terence McKenna. Yeah I've actually done a lot of That's probably why you say that is. I've done a lot of research on that and I often wonder if there's not some partial truth to that for sure. Yeah Yeah you know I I. I don't know but it makes sense to me. Yeah that and the fact that you know. Psychedelics are very There they leave impressions And they can be used as a tool. I you know thinking about cannabis and mushrooms together. I almost think that might be fifty percent of a medicine cabinet realistically speaking you know for you know given certain like edibles for me takes care of my My I have bad arthritis in so at night if I don't take an edible by five or six o'clock at night I'm hurting and I'm half I have to take either. Ibuprofen or an edible but edibles were great. So if I'm able to take an edible for my pain and then I'm able to take some mushrooms in a controlled setting for some mental issues or depression or PTSD or something. That I mean right there. Those two things could help people considerably All around yeah. I agree and you know I think. In that example right cannabis is kind of helping with more physical wellman's whereas the mushrooms maybe it's more spiritual mental and yeah I I think that mushrooms are very powerful and they can be used to help people in a lot of different situations They've helped me in a lot of situations. I can say that. Yeah well. That's great. I seen thing here. Mushrooms continually Help yet and it's not something what I like about. Psychedelics is that it's not something I imagine some people I think he can abuse anything but and also not everybody should cannabis isn't for everybody. Psychedelics AREN'T FOR EVERYBODY. You know steak isn't for everybody. You know what I mean so. I think that you can overdo abuse anything and I think that not everything is made for everybody but at the same time I think that on average you can get some benefit from using cannabis and these theologians essentially that. We've so disassociated from okay. Yeah sorry about that but you I totally think so yeah. I think that it can really help us. In this world. In this modern world disowned constantly bombarded bombarded with distractions and acknowledging and make sure it can be used for benefit for a lot of the social media and stuff like doesn't make me feel very good and I think yes I could outs can help bring us back to our true nature. Whatever you WANNA call it Last year I went down. I had the opportunity to go down tack or and Send some time wasn't arrive in the Amazon and try Iowa Speaking of the theologians and that one is married it was a very powerful experience. That drinking Three nights not back to back in like drink one night after night after the first one is like I don't know what the hell was. That was fun like I should've just stayed in. The United States on mushrooms. Stayed in my lane. I know that you you know and it was just like I. I was blown away by the right and then the next night I had a different experience. Kinda like totally different. You know and it was like okay. I see why this is like yeah You can definitely learn a lot from it and you know so. That was a really cool experience to have I think that people feel like those are bad that what people would label bad trips. And that's the thing about psychedelics. Brain mental thing is that I think psychedelics not only. Does it teach you things? But that's the that's the whole point. That's the whole framework behind. Psychedelics is the fact that you're learning things now so psychedelics will make you very vulnerable. They will make you open up. They'll make you like very self conscious. And if you can't handle that or if you haven't worked through that I it's very hard for a new person to basically what you're doing is working through your shit and then when you get through your shit then that's where the recreation might come out there. Still lessons to be learned but like anything else. That's also applying it after you're done tripping download right right. I used to say that like you know in my younger teenage years and whatnot. I experimented with psychedelics. And now I'm able to use them more right for beneficial purposes. But I don't know I feel like I'm experimenting with an in- like learning just when I think I'm added figure it out. That's when it's like it just changes my perspective on everything and Yeah I think they're really powerful tool for for me how to use them is self reflection and kind of checking in every once in a while is like how am I doing in my. What do I need to work on you know? Sometimes it's like mundane things. Oh you shouldn't talk like this to this person or I think that you dick. That's one that I don't be such a Dick and all right So Yeah I. I think that there's benefit using them. Routinely you know every periodically so often that school Interesting 'cause there's so much research scientific research from Johns Hopkins and other universities Coming out and a lot of people benefit from one experience one high dose experience and some people maybe they WANNA to take multiple smaller doses. And it's Kinda different for everyone so I think there's a lot a lot of work that can be done in that and just for the everyday person that is interested in experimenting with it right doing it with somebody you know who knows what they're doing with done it before that. Can you know active the sitter for you and I think it can help do some research about it prior any kind of psych yourself out? I feel like probably like over reading about it Well Yeah I'm just trying not to fight it. Rake this. That's what it seems like the. That's the underlying. Lesson is that That's how life is we. We need to not resisted. Yeah and that's cool life in there. You know that. These organizations taught me in a roundabout way. I'll tell you though that in general for me is seems like a lot of psychedelics. Similar but for instance like D. N. T. when I experienced. Emt You know that is. There is no grey area with GMT. There is either you are in the zone or you're not seen those like bay purchases and being actually yeah I Yeah It's funny because like one of my really good friends. I just had try my pin and He thought I said teach see. But I said Dean and I said I said this is really strong d. m. t. and he thought us a THC in so. I said but you can't get through the third hit. I said you won't get past the third hit. And he said Oh yeah I will and he goes and the third hit. Yeah Well Aso after the third hit we're in my studio so after the third head. I said okay so I got my start. Put My shit together and you know doing my stuff around the studio because I knew he was gone in for the next ten minutes it blew his world and what was funny is when he was going into those eight minutes the first thing he said was. I can't believe carry this around in your pocket. Wow that's awesome so and and not some. I don't think there's one right way to us. You know back in the day when I first started experimenting elements like you eating eight mushrooms every time. Because that's what does it and you know I. I think that people can use them in all sorts of different ways. And they can you know. Go out to a concert and have a good time or neither hustler. Whatever or they can stay and working garden projects. Or you know and I feel that you could get different experiences in in the different environments and. I don't think that there's just one right way to use them Also too I for an EMT. I when I do it. I I only do it if I want to blast off. I don't like that come up feeling. Dmz that's like my least favorite part. Whenever like I why did I do this? I know I should say you know and then I just smoking in. This doesn't feel good and then all of a sudden. I bought something it's like. Oh Yeah and then I'm back then. It's like yeah right right in with all the interviews. I've done recently. I'm starting to find that. There are large section of Professional People. Just like cannabis. It's to me. It's not really new to discover this stuff but there's a lot of successful people very successful people that consume psychedelics and some form or fashion as a tool way as much or more than people that consume cannabis. I. It's almost like a hand in hand thing like the people I've talked to you. They've done cannabis have actually experience with psychedelics. And they're happy with it. Yeah it's it's just really weird relationship and I'm starting to see some of the most successful people I'm able to talk to actually consume psychedelics. Not On in a not in a a e abusive way. I think it's hard to abuse psychedelics. Because you can just lose your shit but But these people that use it as a tool are very successful so I think that previously psychedelics. You know Kinda of been stigmatized show. I don't know if you know is correlated with the legalization and whatnot of cannabis or not. But it definitely seems like these substances substances are becoming more and more accepted by like our mainstream society. You know big magazines like Time magazine and I forget others but you know a lot of the more mainstream media sources are reporting on uses of second in how they can be beneficial and whatnot and Yeah that's that's really cool. I think that you know the microdosing Silicon Valley or whatever that that was again like jumping claim. I can kind of just made people more aware of it. And just Kinda talk able that. It's not just the burnout. Druggies that use these things. Right that Successful people can use them. I know the guy who invented. Pcr which is when rains chain reaction Which is a machine that used to amplify a section of DNA before it gets sequence So it's called. Pc are and That's used in any sort of sequencing. Dna sequencing right and the guy who invented that which it so my point being that was like a pretty big invention But he attributes a lot of that. Too psychedelics. Go right right right. I think like Steve Jobs. You know a lot of these big figures. That's the thing is that a lot of people haven't even admitted to it. That are probably more successful than I. talked to. For sure That just having admitted to it yet because of the propaganda. And what's what I find very interesting is that we've I find it hard to accept people saying that. We haven't had a relationship with plants for longtime We'd be Indians used plant some the Saami back in northern Europe northern Western Europe used AMANITA. Amanita is with the Saami culture were They gave him two kids. They gave him two dolts. They used him as a way to pass like Amanita. Were used for death back then where people didn't have morphine and so they would take their elders and they would dose them up for days at a time so that they could you know have less pain and you know that probably being the only medicine they had at the time I get that but at the same time we've had this relationship in relationship has somehow I'm sure affected us for anybody now to say that that's all like evil or I don't know what it is you know. I don't know how you getting high seems to be like a sin of I. Don't get that see. How can lead to problems? But I don't see how is a bad thing. In fact I often wonder if the psychoactive nature of certain drugs is actually beneficial. Maybe the prime reason why it is illegal because it makes us think outside the box and when you think outside the box then it's less easy to hurt all the sheep parade. Yeah and I think the hell I'm not I'm not. I'm not trying to speculate either. But at the same time if you think about it we. Religion back in the day was all about plants and That has evolved into. That's all bad and so the basis of most religion now is that those kinds of things are bad which is funny because again most religions probably came from psychedelics. Right or at least Adam Incorporated in those religious. Like Iowa's the Indians with. Peyote you know do you know. I've sat through a sweat. Lodges Legitimate Sweat Lodges with medicine. And they take. Peyote don't like cannabis like when I was going through a sundance with these Indians. It's an eight day spread and four of those eight days. Usually with peyote. They took the payday seriously. In that peyote was a part of their whole like a sundance doesn't just include adults. Sundance has kids bay. Share the peace pipe around with families. This stuff is you know and then even back until like we're the rights of passage. You know we don't have kids. Just go through puberty today have no no steppingstone like well. You gotta get on antidepressants. Or you know you're just gonNA feel odd for like five years that's right whereas back in the day we would put kids through this psychedelic experience and they'd come out the other side with a completely different mind frame and sat and understand it and have knowledge of drugs and you didn't see old cultures like the Saami culture. You didn't see them with kids that had drug problems right. These kids run around eating. Amanita all day right right right so yeah. I don't know I guess. My hope is with newer generations. You know maybe experiencing these things and being more open to them that you know hopefully the laws surrounding these compounds will change. And they will become more accessible and available to for people to experiment with in a controlled setting About Twenty Twenty Right Twenty Twenty initiative here in Oregon. Yeah we have. We have several initiatives. But there's a main one going on twenty twenty that is for Portland Oregon to legalize mushroom society. Or something. I few people different organizations canvassing for debt like criminalize right right criminalize. Nature's the big one. I've interviewed him. In fact two episodes ago they were on and and so but yeah the those are people. Those are the people that are actually this the the backbone of all that. Yeah they're the ones that are hitting the streets and getting signatures and doing it nonprofit and you know and it's really working so I'm it's really. We'll see what happens in twenty twenty with this initiative. Hopefully something gets passed inexperienced people that have experienced it before. Maybe they have. They don't need to go to this hospital to get access to these substances. Maybe I don't know I agree with you where I I'm not sure if I would like it in like a hospital played sending Yeah I know here in Eugene there the certain group that was doing some research on that and you would go into a room and then they hook up to your head and you know and I I should. I should look into that again Because I know they're looking for participants and you go into that does and they kind of trying to measure what's going on. Engage your experience and whatnot but yeah. I'm definitely more of a at home in the woods. I myself I Yeah I don't know about you but I found that for me. Mushrooms is like I can't explain it except that it's like a zone it's like it's like different things caused different zones for me so when. I play Video Games on mushrooms when I sit down and hit that. Start Button my whole head like just you know it. Just it's right in that screen and then everything exists only right there and I. My focus is so incredible. I can focus on the whole screen. Generally when you look at something your direct stairs what you see where you directly look at and your peripheral is kind of just the cloud. When I'm on mushrooms that peripheral is clear and I can focus on all those areas while I'm doing other things so my video games my logic my thinking all gets a lot clear especially if I put myself in the zone so on the flip side though so if I'm doing mushrooms I like to try to find different zones so like a couple of weekends ago. I took mushrooms and went into a cemetery. And that. Put me into a much different Spiritual Zone. That was nothing like playing a video game or focusing or anything like that and those mindsets are for me are easily achieved so I can like if I get up from that video game to go to the bathroom. Got The mushroom peas. I don't know where mushrooms but they make me pay a lot but if I if I get up to go to the bathroom and playing video game I sucked. I come back out of it like you know. Okay and then I kinda stumble around you know. I'm seeing shit for the carpets. Groen in the curtains are twisting and shit and I'm all messed up but then I hit that start button right back into it. It's really crazy. Do you find that similar like because you talked about doing it in the woods and stuff. I mean same thing. Every time I in corporated different environment. There's a different experience. Yeah definitely agreed different environments you get different experiences Yeah I don't play video games. I can't relate to that one and I guess the one that I had been doing mostly there Mike. Lately here is Is taking like five? I this is. The kind of thing was taken five grand sitting in the dark room No noise or anything sure. And that's a favorite kind of. Yeah that's kind of been my preferred way to lately You know but I've gone through periods in my life where I'm going to counter. It's going out to bars and you know and from what I gathered I in all those situations you know. Even the bar one It makes me more empathetic and understanding of human nature. And sometimes I can like you said I just WanNa be a dick and like a And they kind of loosens me up and it makes me like all right. I get why someone may be doing that. Or whatever it may be I really enjoy now that I've gotten older. And kinda learn to work with these substances a little bit more. I do like going out in nature in Kinda interacting with On different trees and plants and fungi and birds and everything that's in there There's an interesting book. Called the cosmic serpent yet the cosmic been and it and it talks about the similarity. Listen kind of getting off subject a little bit but talked about psychedelics. And their uses through different Me As the motivations throughout history and what not but one of the things that made me think about which is Kinda on bring back is that perhaps when we take the PSYCHEDELIC substances So DNA emit and receive signals in the form of bio photons. It's called which there is legitimate research on bio foot so our DNA can emit and receive different signals through wavelength light. Maybe it's similar to that. I'm not sure exactly But I think that may take psychedelics. We're able to tune into that frequency way more and in that way kind of Marceau interact with these organisms that previously or people think you can't talk to a tree. You can't do that right. I don't know our mushroom sometimes. It certainly feels like again. Like you said literally have a tree talked me not like it's got its own personality and Shit right but like there's information knowledge that is shared from that. Because I'm consciously focused on it or something I don't know but it's not information that's just readily available. If you're quote sober right right like you said like it must be a wavelength or a vibration or something that you're keyed into that allows you to tap into those things. I appreciate this man. We're going on our twenty four by Ryan Burrow. So thank you very much for having me on and talk about all these things. Don't link up one of these sons. I'm down Southern Oregon. You know continue these conversations and you've listened to the dirt show if you liked this episode. Please like share comment and go to organ dot com where you can subscribe to us on your favorite platform like items. Pandora or spotify. Also check out our youtube for videos and I G facebook and twitter for all our updates. Thank you for listening check online.
Episode 174: GEs Very Bad Day Unpacking the MDHex Vulnerabilities
"Security Ledger podcasts. Reach an audience of thousands of information technology and information security professionals. If that's an audience at you'd like to reach think about becoming a security ledger. Podcasts sponsor to find out more about sponsoring our podcast point your Web Browser to Security Ledger Dot Com Slash Sales Security Ledger. Podcast Paul Roberts editor in Chief at the Security Ledger in this week's episode of the PODCAST NUMBER. One hundred seventy four. We're back from a hiatus to talk about. Healthcare security caring for sick patients in hospital is as much about mastering technologies eased as as it is about mastering biology physiology and chemistry modern hospital room as a forest of beeping blinking computer hardware. That does everything from measuring patient. Vital signs to administering medication or life saving treatments. All that hardware and software is prone to cyber security vulnerabilities however in. Cyber risk is a growing concern for providers witness warning issued by the Department of Homeland Security on January. Twenty third about a slew vulnerabilities in products by the healthcare giant. Ge ehs's ICS cert warned that a collection of six cyber security vulnerabilities discovered in a range of GE healthcare devices could allow an attacker to make changes at the software level of the device that could render the device unusable interfere with its proper functioning or exposed patient. Health information or all of the above the vulnerabilities collectively referred to as MD. Heck's were discovered by the firm. Cyber MDX five vulnerabilities discovered by Cyber. Mdx given a CVS score of ten on a scale of one to ten while the remaining vulnerabilities Gordon. Eight point five in this episode of the podcast. We invited Saad lose the head of research at cyber. Dx into the studio to talk about the security holes he and his team discovered lose and cyber MDX discovered the flaws reported them to g. e. and then worked with the company on a coordinated disclosure of vulnerabilities in this conversation. A lot and I talk about the flaws he and cyber mb X. discovered and some of the challenges facing healthcare organizations as they try to secure medical hardware and software deployed in clinical settings. So my name is and I'm the head of research at the X. and allowed for our listeners. Who aren't familiar cyber. Mdx continue give us just a idea of what the company does so same. Mdx does science security for Healthcare institutes so. We have a solution that is deployed on hospitals and it's monitoring Traffic analyzing the protocols. And make sure that everything's security remain focused on them medical devices so this is our expert and uh specifically. I'm looking into more of network protocols of a medical devices and we're talking to you because DX is the company that discovered a group of vulnerabilities affecting different Ge Healthcare products. Could you tell us a little bit about what you discovered? And what products were affected by that. So of we've discovered a sinful abilities. Most of them result in code execution. The medical devices are in the care skate. Family that family of devices belongs to patient monitoring so we would find the three of them. Actual patient monitors authors of either workstation devices and they let you manage a group of jurists perhaps Specific Department daylight. You Monitor all the miners and other devices. L. Wrap services that allow those monitors do tunnel the the data into databases in the hospital so in total. I think there is a seven devices. Ge obviously a pretty big supplier of medical hardware and software to hospitals. Talk just a little bit. About what the sort of security implications of these of own abilities are in other words for healthcare organizations. Clinical organizations might have this hardware and software deployed What risks do these certain vulnerabilities create? So as I said most of them. can result in execution which is caused by a coded credentials or lack of authentication wants those credentials Than they irrelevant. Fully endowed product line. Okay so By the way it's out quoted credentials default credentials. It means that the software is looking for specific credentials and they will globally so occasion. Means that you can access data alter it Changed the functionality. Those devices the mentioned and then Things like setting the patient monitors elements or add meeting or discharging. Patience can be done setting date and time also the things like bats evolving specifically patient. Mother wanted me to become a physician but the way things turned security researcher. I shouldn't be talking but anyway I believe you can get the idea of the potential damage those devices. This is what all about. Isn't it really a lot? It's about your mom wanting to become a doctor of medical devices. And you discover these when you were auditing sort of a web component of of this software is at right this sort of configuration client or a management tool the Lee. This research actually came from a couple of points and L. Solution. They're notified us about both. Open Management Sports. Which if I recall the essence age one assembly one answer Version of WELTMAN WELTMAN is based management for stations. And IT'S PRETTY. It's pretty popular. It has also leggings extensions and so it's religious to embed that into your into your product anyway. That version was deprecated any ted vulnerabilities. So one of them was. I'll be driven read. So you could actually With without any logging no credentials to that Web interface you have been the lead to any final advice and specifically speaking you made also a perhaps read the credentials for Web. Then maybe later you you would look into that. And then do some more serious damage. So we've we've noticed that. A couple of deployments and that led to a deeper investigation and the next thing we noticed was just beginning manuals Online for those devices we noticed the health quoted credentials. The services in that made us decide that we should have like deep luke which led then later revealed the X. All these hard-court credentials for the for were were part of the documentation or the the administrator. Yeah Yeah so there was also VNC and SOB. So I think both both have NGOs will out there in the puck manual. Wow so I mean I guess. Obviously we've done a lot of podcasts and talk to a lot of people about these types of issues you know hard code credentials. One of those Dirty secrets in especially in the embedded device space you know whether it's healthcare or or energy or other critical infrastructure seems like there's a lot of legacy hardware and software out there with hard coded credentials and of course they're dangerous because there are coated and they're the everywhere when you reach out to G. E. About this were were. They aware of these vulnerabilities And what was their response to them. I would guess they Originally did not treat those as vulnerabilities. Those devices should reside. I mean according to the documentation by in an isolated network will perhaps would isolated is accurate here because when you connect a Queue you want something? So you want something from the network. Which is you want to transfer that data to the hospitals database or you want to manage it And so on so to do that. You need to have the middle sacred network. Which is with firewall. I I guess they were It will let that all costumers deployed in a very safe way and finals who's are enforced inside and outside of it so they the basic response. We're of these. And of course you know in order to exploit these vulnerabilities as as you you Cyber MDX point out you would need to be within the environment that these devices were deployed and these are not Internet accessible or remotely execute -able via the Public Internet unless these St- vulnerable systems were exposed to the public internet. Right yes first thing. Is that distant? Look Israel to bowl to the hospitals network and second thing is usually hospital network will be to a will have access to the Internet. Think of the ultimate staff that uses emails that uses indolent browsers Think of patients coming with Media with Imaging Radiology Studies and putting that into the hospitals archive the a lots of examples. Think of vendors remotely connecting to the hospital for maintenance and so those things happen constantly all the time and actually will pretty much accessible to anyone so anyone can. I mean is permitted Vaccine Hospital and and most of its route I guess whereas in banks or other offices it's not always the case and we should say department him Homeland Security rated these I think almost all these were rated ten out of ten in terms of a vulnerability. This is the cyber Cis A are there patches or fixes available from GE for these products Care SCAPE APEX pro- And so on so we'll be patches later on this year. We're expecting them like in a few months from now and this is a good thing. Actually because on previous disclosures my answer was that wouldn't be a future. Batches photos vulnerabilities. So I would like to think there is a progress. Obviously hospitals tend to hold onto hardware and software for a lot longer than your average corporate enterprise out so they're refresh cycles might need a decade or more and for diagnostic equipment. It might be many. Decades are these. Should we look at these software and say all these are all kind of outdated old you know software and hardware from GE and you know? We shouldn't be surprised that they have vulnerabilities. Resist fairly recent products or products that are still being marketed and sold so as a manufacturer. I believe that if your sophomore uses thought body software fund the moment that you decided to use that software you should start monitoring if that's has any vulnerabilities and if so you you should supply updates. So that's not the only missing healthcare industry. I think it's Nicole Info Most. Iot's but as you said in the healthcare there's Longo cycles of a lifetime of devices and are these products in particular. Are these older products or are they fairly Up to date products. What do we know about the products of abilities so all of those products still sold the latest ones? The momento specifically are the newest once but the other ones are acquired gold. I think they're they may be even more than more than a decade. You bring up a good point which is The use of third party components whether those are proprietary closed source or or open source. Obviously this is incredibly common across industries and It it you know speeds up development products for sure but it also introduces new avenues for vulnerability and exposure. Do you see cyber. Mdx is a pretty common that you find vulnerable or deprecated open source components or even proprietary software that are bundled in with these types of medical and diagnostic products. Yes deadly for example workstations salvos that have a web server like IAS overlaps as a sage civils oke lions so relaxed. Have them in? Yeah we often see outdated versions of those confidence so these are all the types of problems. Your listing are all pretty I common but also you know not particularly subtle security problems you know hard coded credentials unproductive credentials Input validation problems is kind of this is like application security one. Oh one stuff some of it and you said that the patch from the vendor from GE is going to be a few months coming. What should Healthcare organizations that have these products deployed do. In the meantime. To mitigate these vulnerabilities the first thing I would do after after making sure that they have. Those specific product is find out how they'll deployed so. Some hospitals may deploy a spot of the hospital network. And that's not recommended. Other hospitals may have them on separate networks that allow with no file will it's also not recommended to the GE manual of how to properly deploy those devices. Which is I hear this a lot in these when when companies like cyber MDX find vulnerabilities in these types of products. Whether again it's health care or critical infrastructure. Or what have you? The answer often is well. I mean you know we tell our customers to only deploy in this particular way. That's you know Highly segregated and you know therefore he shouldn't be an issue because you know unauthorized persons shouldn't be able to get on this network segment door be in this environment to exploit these holes I guess what's Your I mean. My thinking on that is well it. It also could work that you just design your product more securely so that even if they you know that it's secure even given your least responsible least you know capable of customer you know that you should be designing kind of with that that customer in mind not the person who's going to do everything right So what what does cyber MD X.'s? Kind take on that. And what would you advise you know health health equipment? Oem's about That type these types of vulnerabilities and what their responsibilities are so you would find that. Those a huge difference between vendors. Recommend them all how they recommend on deploying their systems. And what actually happens? But but but that's writing we. We usually take the worst case with the bull abilities for Microsoft Windows. Slow any browser. You wouldn't say will have a FI will so since I firewall. Those who do not risk. Yeah I'm not gonNA worry about this patch right. Yeah right so obviously not the case. I think it's expressed in the CVS specification so when you do responsible disclosure you evaluate the scoring those that we spoke about and talks about to relevant things. Vote for question one is it has to consider the worst case was case scenario. So you could say well I think most of my customers are deployed that way Only a few in another way but Full evaluating the score. You would have to take the worst. Consider the worst case. So that's the first thing and the second one the second one I think it explicitly says to ignore firewalls. Pretend like they're not there yet because I guess they are a common Cohen facto. Mendoza would like to to dress John but calmly not well utilized by by customers. You're only as strong as your weakest firewall rule. I guess I would say so. During the disclosure the was a decision by GE to Letters to their customers letting them though that there was an issue several security issue with one a mall those. I've never seen that happen. Usually responsible disclosures our pretty discrete. Yeah it's like the support site or something. Yeah Yeah Yeah so so. This is typical. I guess for for recalls fully rigorous process were sharing information is not does not always risk but eventually I think the awareness the news came out with the disclosure itself. So that's one interesting thing that's happened. During the disclosure mitre has released the Sivy specification designed specifically for medical devices. It guides you through the scoring and evaluation with examples. And it's still early drafts but I really appreciate your initiative. They put off efforts to make the process wolf state forward and those take into account the potential for for example a physical harm or harm to patients. Yes exactly exactly yeah. There was one of the criticisms of the existing. Cvs as common vulnerability scoring system is at you know. Kind of presupposes that these are all just basically. It systems deployed on an enterprise network. Or something like that. They they tend not to Way Cyber physical consequences Th that has traditionally been part of CVS scoring so. Yeah but that is interesting that miters going forward with a parallel a scoring system for For Health Devices. Yeah of course a lot. Thank you so much for coming on speaking to US on security. Ledger PODCAST GREAT. Having you in thank you and graduations and thank you for the great research you did on these. Ge Products Lovers is the head of research at Cyber MDX he was here talking to us about MDX a group of security flaws discovered in GE's care scape products.
92 - AMA #12: Strategies for longevity (which don't require a doctor)
"Lou Hey everyone welcome to a sneak. Peek asked me anything or AMA episode of the drive podcast. I'm your host Peter at at the end of this short episode. I'll explain and how you can access the Ama episodes full along with a ton of other membership benefits. We've created or you can learn more now by going to Peter Tia. MD DOT COM forward slash slash. Subscribe so without further delay. Here's Today's sneak peek of the. Ask Me Anything episode. Welcome to WHO. Ama Episode Number Twelve in this episode. We discuss all things related to longevity. That you don't need a doctor form. This actually came out of a discussion. I was having with Bob and nick. About how much of the stuff that I do with patients I think people could do on their own if they had sort of the right guidance. So we focused by looking at nutrition exercise physiology and sleep physiology for the most part. If you enjoy this conversation Shen were happy to have a follow up ama based on any more questions that come out of it and of course if the reception to this is positive we can certainly go into other other things that we didn't have time for in this episode which would include for example things around supplements techniques round distress tolerance things like that and once again joined in hosted right by my head of research. Bob Kaplan so without further delay here is today's Ama up Welcome to another episode. I'm Bob Kaplan and with me as full-time shepherd and part time race car driver Peter Attiyah Peter how are you doing. I'm good. I was thinking today. I've never done anything as bad as I do. Driving it is actually the worst thing thing. I do a much better everything than I am driver. That's why our full-time shepherd. In part time racecar driver. We wouldn't want to switch those. Yeah and today I just was really frustrated in the simulator later at how bad I was. It is definitely the hardest activity I've ever tried. And another life. You know a thing or two are about longevity longevity and lifespan and health span so we might get to a few questions on those and not just shepherd related topics today so despite all the questions we do get around shepherds and Racecar racecar driving which we actually do the latter. We thought great theme for Today's Ama as all things related to longevity that you don't need a doctor for with a focus on the five tactics of longevity which covers a huge range of questions that come from the listeners and to remind the listeners what those five levers are or five tactics are nutritional biochemistry exercise physiology sleep physiology distress tolerance. And -til Amir's wait sorry exogenous molecules which includes drugs hormones and supplements and maybe telomeres telomeres. So I thought we would just go down the list and start with nutritional biochemistry. We get a lot of questions around these and if we you just start with nutrition I would say that people are asking a lot of different questions. Should I eat this. Should I not eat that but I think in some ways. They're asking the same thing which is what. or how should I be eating or not eating in order to live better now and or in the long run so Peter. How do you approach this question? Maybe have a personally and what do you think is the answer to that question. Or how do you even approach that question. Well before even getting into that I would say that this is a great place to start art for the theme as you've laid it out. which is we're really going to focus today on things that one can do? That specifically does not require the help of a physician. Because I know that it's just difficult for people depending on where they are geographically or otherwise to find physicians additions. Who are thinking about the problem this way so I think there are lots of physicians who do think about the problems this way? Meaning they think long and hard about the long tail of longevity seventy and what the long arc of prevention needs to look like but I also realize that a lot of people don't happen to be in an area where they're gonna be able to find a doctor that can help them with that and so what I've been thinking about and what I will talk about today is okay imagine for a moment you absolutely have no access to medical care. You have no access to a physician who can help navigate through this. What could you do on your own and I think the good news is you can do more on your own then? You require the help of a physician for so to your question. I think of all of these tactical domains scenes. I think in some ways nutrition is the most complicated and I think it might be the most complicated because I think it has the most variable response for a given individual to a given stimulus so if the things that you put in your mouth to eat the molecules you put in your mouth to eat are the inputs or the stimuli. The responses responses can be totally variable. So you and I bob could eat the same thing at the same time under the otherwise same conditions and it produces a very different output. Put One of US might have a favourable response to that. The other one might have a lukewarm or even an unfavourable response to that and I think that's where a lot of frustration comes from. I can sense that frustration Asian in people's questions at times I feel myself I feel it in my patients. It can be infuriating when you are doing everything quote unquote right. Because you're listening to someone who sounds like they know what they're talking about. You're reading something that seems reasonable. You try to adhere to that prescription dietary prescription. And you don't get a result and you don't get the result that you were promised or you think you should get so. We think the overarching principle of nutritional biochemistry. Is You have to be malleable. You have have to be empirical and you have to assume that if it doesn't work and you've tried it correctly but that's okay and there's another approach so I don't want to harp arpanet framework because I think we've talked about quite a few times. But the framework that I find helpful is to be thinking about the three things that you can restrict picked within nutrition you can do. What's called dietary restriction which is restricting some type of macromolecules so examples of dietary very restriction? would be something quote unquote as simple as restricting sugar. Michigan carbohydrates restricting animal protein animal product. Jen Enroll fat one type of fat like polyunsaturated fat. It's basically anytime you're saying. I'm not going to eat from certain food groups or certain macro or certain subsets subsets of food. The second type of restriction is time restriction. This says. I'm going to limit the window during which I eat again. You and I have talked about this a lot written about it. Recently this gets lumped into the broader terminology of intermittent fasting. I've never liked that term arm and so I try to steer people away from the term intermittent fasting towards time restricted feeding or time restricted eating. But I think this is an idea. A lot of people are familiar with so sixteen. Eight as an example means a sixteen hour window when you are not eating anything or being exposed to nutrients other than water tea and then an eight hour window in which you're consuming food and that number tends to shrink as you become more extreme so sixteen eight is less extreme than eighteen. Six which is less extreme than twenty one three as you open the non feeding window enclosed the feeding window the third and final lever. That I you think of in nutrition is caloric restriction. This is when you actually reduce the input. Obviously these three can be combined but they don't have to be so as an example. Since my last fast now ended about two weeks ago I have been only utilizing in one of these levers I have been exclusively going down the rabbit hole of dietary restriction with absolutely no caloric restriction and absolutely no time restriction fiction. So what that translates to is. I'm pretty much eating. Whenever the Hell I want? In fact I seem to be eating constantly. The first thing that goes in my mouth five in the morning and the last thing that goes into my mouth is is like seven at night. That's like a fourteen hour window in which I'm feeding. I'm also making no effort whatsoever to restrict how much I'm eating but where I'm I'm really strict. In fact at this point maniacally strict is what I'm eating. I hate using the word clean but people would understand what that means. I'm basically completely restricting. Carbohydrates outside of vegetables. I think I had three berries the other day. But I'm pretty much having no fruit I'm having no starch whatsoever. I'm eating not a single Krumlov. My kids plates which is Kinda my New Year's resolution. I'm eating vegetables like my life. Depends on it meat. Eggs and things like that avocado nuts but otherwise quite restricted when it comes to most carbohydrates so another point point I want to make here is. I've learned over many years that that approach works very well for me when I want to lose a few pounds and a wrote what about this earlier in the year. One of my goals. Here's to lose about seven pounds. which sort of an arbitrary number? But there's actually a a reason behind that and I just know I know that dietary restriction is the lever for me the tends to result in weight loss provided it's this form of dietary restriction. I'm positive ositive that I could prescribe the same dietary intervention to another person and it would not produce the effect in fact I have many patients for whom they say. The only thing that really results results in weight loss for them is time restriction. It's making that feeding window narrower and narrower and narrower and so it's neither good nor bad one isn't right light one isn't wrong. The idea is approaching this problem through the Lens of being malleable. Enough to a know what it is. You're trying to address. Be figuring out how to measure. Is your that when possible in the case of something as trivial as weight. It's very easy to measure but for other things it's potentially impossible to measure sticking with a plan Dan long enough to assess it and being ready to abandon it. If it doesn't seem to work so I don't think I fully answered your question because I think there's a lot there but I'll pause for a moment and let you digestion. Ask More if you feel like I could shed more light on that. I think one of the things that you brought up is essentially a goal or some type of marker to look at in in terms of whether your diet is successful or not re say I WANNA lose seven pounds and I think that's a important question to ask when the original the question is what should I be eating. or how should I be eating in order to live better and that may mean a number of different things for somebody and I was thinking in that context. What are some of the tools that people can use to help? Guide them in answering this question for themselves. I mean I often think of like a continuous Glucose Monitor. But that might be where you're crossing that line between whether you need a doctor or not or on the flip side. Sometimes I think in medicine. We look at randomized controlled trials and wonder whether something was efficacious or not. But when you think about it in the clinic I think an important question to ask the patient or ask another doctor about the patient as well. How does the patient feel so? I think in terms of a diet. Maybe somebody just wants to feel better feel like they have more energy. Feel less lethargic or it is losing weight or lowering glucose for something like that. So how can people keep track of that. Thank you for listening. Today's sneak peek. Ama episode of the drive. If you're interested in hearing the complete version Asian of this ama you'll want to become a member. We created the membership program to bring you more. Indepth exclusive content without relying on pay. Dad's membership benefits are many and beyond the complete episodes of the AMA each month. They include the following ridiculously comprehensive. PODCAST show notes that detail every topic. The paper person and thing we discuss on each episode of the drive access to our private podcast feed the qualities which were super short. podcast typically less. Some five minutes released every Tuesday through Friday which highlight the best questions topics and tactics discussed on previous episodes of the drive is particularly important for those of you who haven't heard all of the back. Episodes becomes a great way to go back and filter and decide which ones you want to listen to in detail really steep discount codes for products products. I use and believe in book for which I don't get paid to endorse and benefits that we continue to add over time if you WANNA learn more access these member only benefits head head over to Peter Attiyah. MD DOT COM forward slash subscribe. Lastly if you're already a member but you're hearing this it means you haven't downloaded are member. Only podcast ask feed where you can get the full access to the AMA. And you don't have to listen to this. 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#89 - AMA #11: All things fasting
"Hey everyone welcome to a sneak. Peek asked me anything or AMA episode of the drive podcast. I'm your host Peter at at the end of this short episode. I'll explain and how you can access the Ama episodes full along with a ton of other membership benefits. We've created or you can learn more now by going to Peter Tia. MD DOT COM forward slash slash. Subscribe so without further delay. Here's Today's sneak peek of the. Ask Me Anything episode. Welcome to a special AMA episode focusing on my recent seven day fast. In addition to a deep dive on fasting. In general as this is a topic we get so many questions Russians on we figured dedicating an entire. Ama to it would be a value so we hope you enjoy. I'm once again. Joined by my head of research. Bob Kaplan so without further delay. Here's Today's special. Ama focusing on fast low and welcome to A.. We've fasting edition of ask. Peter Anything Peter how you doing doing all right. And this is Bob Kaplan. So let's just jump right into the questions around fasting. You obviously get a lot of questions on fasting and I thought before we get into fasting. Maybe you could discuss what what. Fasting is a definition of fasting. So we get a lot of questions around what is I F. What is T. R. F. What is ADF? What's a fasting mimicking diet and what is prolonged fasting? Even what's an overnight fast so I can remind you of all those okay. Why don't you give them to me one at a time? Okay so I think maybe the first one is overnight fast when somebody refers to an overnight fast. What does that so that as its name suggests is sort of a standard fast that almost by definition finish? Everybody does between dinner and breakfast. So if you finished dinner at seven o'clock in the evening rather than you had breakfast at seven o'clock the next morning you would have you've just undergone a twelve hour overnight fast. Okay and T R F time restricted feeding. Some people call T. R. E. Time restricted eating. That is is an idea where you increase that window from just an overnight fast into a slightly longer window so if the overnight fast I used a moment ago were to be put into time restricted feeding nomenclature. You would call it a twelve twelve. You've meaning twelve hours of fasting followed by twelve hour window sale seven. Am to seven PM. In which one would eat you can extend that and you could say a fourteen ten window or a sixteen eight window or an eighteen six window. Where the first number generally refers to the period of time that has is no nutrient exposure and then followed by the window and time in which one would be able to consume food? Typically ad Lib Dem meaning without restriction. Okay Okay so rolling into the next one. Alternate Day fasting so again as the name suggests alternate day. Fasting is when every other day a person does something other than their traditional ad. libbed him eating now. The most strict way that one could do an alternate day fast which would be quite difficult to do over the long haul would be to literally consumed nothing every other day more commonly when people do alternate day fasting. They have a hypo caloric orrick day so they might alternate days consume. Say a thousand calories and on the Non Fasting Day they would consume whatever they consume ad Lib. Yeah that might be say twenty five hundred three thousand calories so that your somewhat of a stickler on the definition so in that case it's almost like alternate day calorie restriction on the opposite day. One Way to think about that actually a couple of days that I think about it. As if you're looking at a calendar for a strict alternate day fast. If you're going to start in January January one let's say you're going to eat in January second. You'RE GONNA fast. You can mark off every even day of that month and you know that you're fasting passing on that day. And then on the the alternate days you're eating and I sometimes think about it in terms of when you talked about Kiara for time restricted feeding time restricted. Eating you think about it in the context of a twenty four hour clock with alternate day fasting. It's almost like a forty eight hour clock on the alternate days. I think it can. Actually it can vary quite a bit on your. You're feeding days that you might do a one meal a day which would be like a almost like a forty seven one. That's right one hour of the day you're feeding and in the forty seven hours. You're not. I don't suspect that people are eating between midnight and eleven fifty nine on the feeding days. There's probably a a bigger window than just twenty four hours when you think of an alternate day fast. Next definition is intermittent fasting so this is a term that unfortunately has gained a lot of popularity. I guess I say unfortunately because I don't find find it to be that helpful. I think what people generally mean when they say. Intermittent fasting is time restricted feeding and in the end. Who cares what people say? It's long as they know what they're talking talking about it and know what they're referring to but I personally don't find the term intermittent fasting to be very accurate because I don't think that not eating for sixteen Hours really constitutes a fast per se. And that's why I do prefer the terminology time restricted feeding or time restricted eating to describe the the extension of the overnight fast. I think if you were going to give a true meaning to the word intermittent fasting. You would describe. I bet sort of the way I describe periodic fasting which is at some frequency. You actually undergo fast and that might mean every month or every quarter or every six months or every year you undergo a fast. That is intermittent and again that gets into probably another one of the definitions. You'RE GONNA ask about which is what does fasting mean. Does fasting necessitate a complete elimination of calories or could it also be done through reduced used calories. Maybe one other bucket popular diet as the five to fast which is instead of looking at a twenty four hour window or a forty eight hour window. You're you're looking at the calendar week and you're selecting a couple of days where it's actually. I think it's calorie restricted. Like you said with the alternate day fasting so in two days so eating five days out of the the seven day week. You're eating normally today's out of the seven day week. I'm not sure if you can pick them whatever days you WanNa pick him the usual version. That protocol is that they are not successive but otherwise is it's sort of up to you. Okay yeah in that case it'll be typically hypo caloric four hundred to six hundred calories. I think on your quote unquote fasting days. Yep fasting mimicking. What does mimicking fasting? Well I think of term fast mimicking diet or fasting mimicking Diet F. M.. Mm D is actually a trademark that belongs to a company that sells a product. That is a prepackaged five day. A fast I believe the company is called L. New Terra minutes based on the work of a guy by the name of Valter Longo and it has a very clear clear prescription around its macronutrients. And it's total caloric balance so in other words to be very clear. The term fast mimicking being diet is to that what the term Kleenex is to the actual tissue. That is branded Kleenex. So there are an infinite number of tissues that you can blow your nose into. There's only one Kleenex. There are an infinite number of ways that one can do a reduced calorie fast. I that approximates some of the metabolic benefits of fasting but there is only one fast mimicking diet or FMD for what it's worth. That's approximately awesome at least nine hundred to one thousand calories on the first day and I believe it's approximately seven hundred to seven hundred fifty calories for days two through do five but I could be off a little bit on that okay and then last but not least prolonged fasting or multiple day fasting so so again if we're now talking about absolute fasting as opposed to reduced calorie fasting of which fast mimicking diets are a subset so again a reduced calorie fast would be typically from a clinical perspective using our patients as an example. We do anywhere from three to seven days. Typically at about five hundred to seven hundred calories a day we also have very different macro that we prescribe than some of the commercial applications nations. But again we call that a reduced calorie fast. So then what you're talking about of course says it's the simplest way to explain. Actually it's just water only and I say water also so includes tea and some minerals. But it's no calories for a period of time and again it's typically done for three to seven days at a time. I can't believe I'm GonNa give you the one about S- so what about coffee coffee and tea and water or just water. Is there a difference. There probably is but again. It probably isn't as much which of an issue as people want to make it out to be when we have patients who are quite caffeine dependent. We don't like to see them eliminate caffeine during a fast because fast and can be challenging enough on its own and I don't really think it benefits someone to also go through caffeine withdrawal during that period of fasting. So I'm sort of fortunate in this regard in that I drink coffee every day but I don't seem to have any dependency on. Its when I fast. I don't drink coffee at least for the first five days. Sometimes as a treat on days five six seven those longer fast I'll drink black coffee. Some observers have suggested that enhances Tafkaji late enough in a fast. I'm not necessarily convinced that that's the case. And truthfully I think I do it just to sort of break up the board. A black coffee has I've never tasted so good as it does on day. Five of water only fast but for most of the time. I don't consume coffee even black during a fast and again and we make a decision very clinically with patient. There are some patients in a big part of the fasting protocol is gut rest in those patients. We definitely want to avoid coffee. offi not so much for the caffeine but more for some of the other phytochemicals that are in. T- seems to be a little bit more forgiving. And obviously there's plenty of caffeine in enough F- types of tea so again. The Caffeine is probably less the issue but I do think that for most patients the sort of bread and butter no pun intended of a fast is water and that can be bubbly water stillwater. Bubbly waters a nice way to sort of mix it up and you know I have a particular brand of bubbly water that I fancy the most. So go through those at a geometric rate during my fasting weeks. Okay so obviously you alluded to the next question which is at least one of the types. So what type of fasting do. Oh you personally engage in and why so why do you fast. And what types of fast of all those fast. We just talked about T. R. F.. ATF IFM D. and the prolonged fast asked which ones are you engaging in and why thank you for listening to. Today's sneak peek. Ama episode of the drive. If you're interested in hearing the complete version of this AMA damning you'll want to become a member. We created the membership program to bring you more. Indepth exclusive content without relying on paid ads. Membership benefits are many and beyond the complete episodes of the AMA each month. They include the following ridiculously comprehensive. 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Episode 29 SMAs vs. Mutual Funds vs. ETFs
"Welcome to the invest with clarity podcasts where you will learn how success in investing as in life is the result of absolute clarity. Mark Pearson of nexus in Minneapolis. Minnesota shares his passion for portfolio management and commitment to transparency and communication to allow investors to fully understand what they own and why bringing them to you clarity in their investments. And now here are your co host manpower and and Mark Pearson. Hello and welcome to another invest with clarity podcast with Mark Pearson. The chief investment strategist sport nap SIS now today, we are going to have a three way battle SM as versus mutual funds versus ETF's. All right, Mark, the bell has rung where do we begin? Why? Oh boy, by the way, before we get into this. I going to get the to my own again about why you shouldn't make predictions about markets and why you should make predictions about your investments. I happen to love when you so go ahead. Well, here's the deal as we tell people you cannot prognosticate posh late and speculate, you cannot guess even if it's educated guess or not no one knows where a bottom of a market is were recording this in February on February twenty first of two thousand and nineteen and we bottomed in this correction that everybody got worried about on Christmas Eve, and according to statistics over twenty billion came on of equity mutual funds in December alone and at the bottom on December twenty four th forget that since January first the s and p's up just under eleven percent. The NASDAQ is up over twelve and a half. Dow's up over ten AC w is up over ten on February twenty first you're not even two months into the under the year. And you're seeing higher returns of the indexes than you do on historic. Will average isn't of course on Christmas Eve. Here's the deal. There's not a lot of rocket scientists. I tweeted out from our naps account that and also told our head of research that we're about at the bottom in my theory was that once we hit twenty percent, look once you get twenty percent down statistical probabilities that you're buying and close to the bottom in my opinion are pretty high because morning star says that on average the stats are a little old, by the way. But on average a twenty percent correction happens every five years the deal is though we hadn't seen a twenty percent correction since the bomb of the financial crisis. So it had been ten years. And in other words, twenty percent corrections are not that uncommon but we hadn't seen for a while. We got a lot of younger investors. Now, we allow people used to be in the business during the tough days gone. And it's it's a new environment. So volatility is new, but as we always say uncle, Matt volatility creates opportunity volatility in our opinions not risk if you're. Appropriately acid allocated aunt, so your investment objectives are being met. And you know, what you only why you own it. Because volatility creates the opportunity to take advantage of buying businesses on sale. Would you like a few examples? I would love you examples. Okay. I'm gonna give them to you soul. Since January first, by the way, I have to give the disclosure. This is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy any stocks that are mentioned here in on this podcast. I am going to tell you. I may have set an a previous podcast that we were long-term shareholders of Invidia and in video was an S and P five hundred darlings in sixteen and seventeen and we started buying the sixties when it hit two sixty to sixty five and early October because of the initial numbers regarding a recession coming we don't like to own semiconductor stocks at peak of economic cycles. So we sold it lo and behold to us we were. Able to repurchase. Invent one hundred and thirty eight dollars a share three months later. I want you to think about this. You buy stock at one sixty you sell it at two sixty two to sixty five and we sold some property along the way anyways over the last couple of years, and then the market emotional investors. Illogical investors give you the opportunity three months later to go back and buy a top semiconductor stock at one hundred thirty eight hundred three six hundred thirty eight dollars a share. I mean, I it was the worst performing S and P five hundred stock by the way in two thousand eighteen shockingly as it was the best in sixteen seventeen by the way that stock now's at one hundred and sixty so it's already up like fifteen percent from the bottom volatility. Creates the opportunity how about cell, gene, we told you about cell, gene. Right. Went from ninety eight to sixty five fundamentals and change bot, sixty five January second Bristol Myers buys them for over one hundred dollars a share stocks trading at ninety right now. Now, sixty five ninety we start buying that nearly December for the clients, but you want one more little tasty tidbit. Keep me go. He net flicks of China that most people have never heard of IQ IQ is up fifty three and a half percent year date that stock was twenty two dollars a share in October November. Let's call it went all the way down just under fifteen now back at twenty three. So that stock on October. Let's call toll for twenty fourth was at twenty to forty. It's not February October November December four months later. Four months you along to investor. It's right back at twenty at twenty twenty three. Now the question is did you get the opportunity? Did you have a by discipline in place to go in and buy that stock when it was at fifteen I actually went in and did my December. Buys for that stock or average price. We bought it at for clients was seventeen stocks at twenty three now, by the way, this is a sixteen billion dollar market cap company. It's going to be the Netflix China. You know, it's not like it's a fly by night company. It's volatile. But volatility creates the opportunity to buy businesses on sale. This is why we believe in the idea of what you own why you own it. And more importantly, as I segue for you biggie, why you should invest in an SM may versus mutual funds and exchange-traded funds. All right. So you just did the tale of the tape there. And now, we're we're seeing these three people walk into the ring let let's talk about these. I if you don't mind, let's get the definitions of what an SME as what a mutual fund is what an ETF is. Please. Sure. So obviously most people have their money in a mutual fund, right and particularly in four one ks and that kind of thing the definition of a mutual fund. According to Google is an investment program funded by shareholders that trades in diversified holdings, and is professionally managed another words. It is a Bach. It of stocks bonds real estate hard metals, whatever you wanna own all think of it on a bucket and people who invest in them mutual fund, our shareholders in the fun. So you have a share price based on the value of that mutual fund. Okay. All the money is co mingled, which means the manager makes all the investment decisions manages all of the buys and sells. And additionally the investor has no control over who buys who sells the manager of the fund has to do it. Additionally, an investor cannot know what a mutual fund owns until they file their SEC filings at the end of each quarter, which means that the fun could totally changed in that period. So that that in the simplest form. Warm is what a mutual fund is most mutual funds are what's called an open end mutual fund, which means that they price at the end of each day when you buy or sell a mutual fund, right? It is priced at the close of business on that day. So what happens if you panic and you sell a fund early in, you know, early in the trading day only to see it rebound at the end of the day. You locked out. What happens if you thought it was really high in the morning is sold it. And then you had ten percent pullback at the end of the day, you're going to get the closing price. It's limited flexibility limited transparency, obviously. In a mutual fund. All right in exchange traded funds, a marketable securities trades on the open market trades. Like a stock you can buy and sell any time. And it is also something that tracks and index or bonds or it's a basket of assets. Just like a mutual fund. The biggest difference between exchange traded fawn and a mutual funds that the the exchange traded fund prices throughout the day, and you can buy and sell immediately. Whereas with mutual funds, you can those of those two Gotcha. Now before we going to s a may. Did you wanna ask me anything about those two? I don't know. No, no. I mean, I. I'm hoping that the majority of the listeners are going to know what those two are. I think the big difference is how we transitioned into this next one. Right. So most people are not familiar with the concept of an Esa may SM may is a separately managed account. You know, and what that means is it is a portfolio where your money is not coal mingled with other people's money. Okay. It's a it's a portfolio of assets managed by professional investment firm. That's what we do here at naps. We believe in ECE maze. And the vast majority of firms that do this own individual securities in the individual's account. So there are four significant we feel advantages when Esa may because it differs from pool vehicles like mutual fund. Your look when you need money comes directly, I your count. So let me. Let me give you the four basics map on the benefits of an Esa. May by the way, we call this. You'll like this smart. Investing more thing. Testing. The word smart is a play on Esa may and the art of investing. If you don't think art is involved in investing. You are sorely mistaken. All right. Why are estimated as so smart number one? An estimate can be customized to properly align with an investor's objectives and goals. Number two. Estimates are actively managed by professional portfolio manager who provides individual guidance and understands the investors unique goals as well as their personal tolerance for risk. Here's a big one, particularly since you just had that twenty percent correction estimates provide the flexibility needed to invest directly in businesses. I mean stocks bonds and other securities to generate liquidity and potential tax benefits. This is due to the investor owning the security outright. Versus owning shares are units of a mutual fund or exchange for fun. Lastly estimates provide the transparency many clients demand understand exactly what they own in their portfolio. Why they will know securities clients have access to all the details associated with any trains, trades or changes in their portfolio. So in other words in layman's terms, why estimate an estimate gives an investor a lot more transparency in a lot more flexibility. And I asked the simple rhetorical question. If I work hard for all my money, and I go invest all my money. Wouldn't it? Stand to reason that I want every advantage possible to potentially enhance my ability to invest in plan with success. Yeah. That's why we believe in the. And you know, estimate have other secondary benefits like the ability to tax manage the portfolio because you know, where the gains and losses are in every aspect of the portfolio. Here's another big one in this is this is a really good example for an estimate, and why estimates are so good. Let's take for example, in the case here at nap says, of course, we have investors who take money out of their portfolio monthly or quarterly or whatever because they're in retirement. Right. And or they all of a sudden say, gee, I need some money. So they find themselves in a situation where they say, you know, what I need to get money out of my portfolio. I'm buying a car buying a house. I'm doing this. Or that whatever the case may be. And in our particular case as it has happened on multiple occasions for us over the years. We generally have one or two companies in our portfolio every year. Get bought I don't remember the last year where we didn't have a company our portfolio get purchase. Now, I'm not saying it's going to happen in the future map a wise advantageous while in the case of cell, gene. For an example, or the case of in video where we sold at knocked-over at much higher levels because of the economic cycle and the type of business that is owned semiconductors, very cyclical in nature. We were able to raise cash when you sell sell, gene. You raise cash sorta investor says, hey, I need money. Where's the place to get the money? Well, puts us in a position. We don't have to sell anything while it's down because we can take the cash from cell, gene, or the Invidia to get people. Their funds. So what happened in this last correction? We had an to businesses get bought cell, gene. And Masar K. Both got bought in the last half of last year last last quarter, actually, yeah. Actually cell gene was January, but close enough we had positions we raise cash on because of economic cycle. We sat when this correction starting October fifteen ten fifteen eighteen percent cash. So during the correction between October and December we strategically cost average in brought down a cost basis in a lot of companies. And this is why we look at now that the markets, which course, we don't invest in markets. We invest in businesses are up ten percent. I'm not gonna tell people will were up because it's short term. And I don't want it to come across his braggadocious and saw returns. But I told you how much we were up already not bad. Not too shabby. And that's why volatility creates opportunity and you get that. When. If you own an SME. I'd like for you to go back just a little bit and talk a little bit more about the tax applications here because I think that people don't understand the power of how to utilize a a clear portfolio in managing sort of tax losses and tax gains. Could you could you just elaborate on that just a little more, direct example? Okay. Right. So we SEC filings. We have a sizable position in a company called by do. And by do is the Chinese version of Google we've owned by do since about two thousand and seven and had a new client come in in August, July August September. I don't remember the exact date, but came from a a big wirehouse kind of firm had a bunch of mutual funds and individual stocks, and as we began to manage the portfolio, again, another advantage of an Esa may is. The ability to pinpoint when you sell something when appropriate because something's we may not want to sell right away. Other things we will. So I sold all the bonds outright away, especially since interest rates had gone from over three percent down to two point seven sold the bonds. Aw of the portfolio, raise the cash and then began to sell off positions. We didn't want to own in strategic cost average into the positions. We wanted the client on well in October November we were buying companies like Kraft, and by doing particularly for this client, and when we were repositioned the portfolio he had capital gains from the positions we sold. All right. So what we did was we went in and sold craft sold by do at a loss. They were down twenty percent, whatever in this direction, and whatever those dollars where I'm you know, we'll give details on the dollars. But basically caught their capital gains tax significantly. Because when you sell a position at a loss. It offset gains, right? If you wait thirty days to eliminate what's call the wash sale rule. You can go back thirty days later, and you can buy those stocks back. Okay. Now, here's my problem. Right. I've already said I've already talked about. I've already tweeted I've already told our clients advisers we work with that this correction is almost over in December. And I said to my investment Kamei, look when this things down twenty percent, you gotta go all out you got to invest because the fund the long-term fundamentals economy really have not changed, and certainly the businesses more importantly that we own have not changed that happened on December twenty four th right on December thirty first I waited because the markets were rebounding stocks are rebounding at the time, I waited and sold. These positions at the loss on the thirty first to get the tasks loss harvest, but I knew I shouldn't say I knew that's that's not fair. I felt confident that more than likely when people came back from Christmas Eve or the markets bottom low volume and coming to the end of the year that the tax loss harvesting was going to end. And that I expected my expectations were January was going to be a big month because people are gonna come back from Christmas seal autumn stuff on sale and start buying and sure enough. That's what happened. So what I did to offset myself was when I sold by do I went in and bought Alibaba for this client Cape. I did this kind of stuff for other clients too. Right. So this is just the specific example. Right. So in this case, I sold the by due to hedge. Myself because I can't own by do for the next thirty days. I'm going to go in and I'm going to buy Alibaba because both companies benefit from Chinese economy. And of course, with tariffs going on and everything else, blah, blah, blah, thought Alibaba be a very very good place the money. So I went and bought Alibaba like one hundred and thirty three hundred thirty four dollars a share today Alibaba's at one hundred seventy two. So by do actually went down in January. I actually got able to buy by do not maybe ten percent higher than when I sold at. I got the tax loss harvests, and I bought Alibaba za hedge in case things snap back, which is exactly what they did. I did the same thing with Invidia bought Invidia for him before that at one hundred thirty six hundred thirty seven now, it's at one hundred and fifty eight so my point is that tax laws harvesting is a direct benefit of clarity. Just direct benefit of transparency. It is a direct benefit of flexibility. And I meet was smart investors, all the time. They're unfamiliar with this strategy. And this is something we talk about our cell discipline. We have four sell disciplines. This is why we talk about having a by discipline and having to sell discipline. Instead of you know, sitting in front of a TV listenable bunch of people say she just by an index. This is though our next podcast, of course, is going to be on active invest in versus passive, right? There are significant advantages to act of management. The problem is our industry because it is driven by so many. Funds and exchange-traded funds that we are teaching people how to be lemmings. How did you just go with the flow and just do it? And hope and pray when the reality is smart money knows what to do this. Why people is compliant will the rich get richer and the poor GU poor all the smart, you'll the institutions Wall Street, they make all the money. Wall Street doesn't make all the money if you know how to invest with clarity. If you know how to flexibility and transparency and invest like the institutional money does that is what an Esa may gives you. Talk about clarity. I warned Mark earlier for our listeners, which we are preparing for the podcast that I was going to be sitting back and learning a lot about this. Because you know, there are a lot of acronyms in our industry, and in everybody's talking about ATF's, and everybody's talking about, you know, all you need to do is invest in these mutual funds. And I personally didn't understand how all of those fit together or didn't fit together, especially when it came to an asset may within the net system and investing with clarity, Mark. I think you did a great job that was wicked clear makes a lot of sense. I love your examples, and I love because you're proving what's in the pudding. Right. You and I love it. Here's why clarity understanding the company's what you won't NYU own it. Why we went from this doctor this stock, and then why we went from this dock back into this. Right. That's I just don't think people understand. I don't think that there's enough people like you out there who are. Talking about this to rise above the noise of these billion dollar companies that are flooding the airwaves with misinformation. Well, I thank you for that. By the way, which is a nice compliment. You know, look at the end of the day. This is really our mantra. Our whole mission statement is to change the investment world. One investor time through the power of clarity. And clarity. Really does give you an advantage. Look we're talking about our hard-earned money. Don't we want to have every Vange? We can now let me be blunt. Let me be fully transparent. Let allow me to look like a complete idiot firm. Then is that? Okay. I don't know if I can deal with that, dude. Sorry. Maybe I've just put you on a pedestal so high no go and of course, well naps. This is no what you only why you own it. And we believe that when you know, what you y you own it. It can lead to better wealth better life. Right. And as you know, and as our SEC filings show, we have a significant position in a company called Sast. And zest is a what's called a micro cap, which in is code for in layman's terms, a high risk stock according to the industry, according to the market. And of course, one of the things, you know, about this industry is I cannot stand the labels in categories that the industry forces things into an I believe really gives investors in some cases, a false sense of accuracy or security, and I was involved with zest since it was a private company I sat on an advisory board and made recommendations for the company to buy this zest technology, which is a software hardware platform that no-one in the world that we have been able to find can remotely mimic and not only that has a database. It's been a development for almost twelve years. That is so dang powerful. Most people have no clue okay. But there are other ancillary components, including the fact that the CEO of EKO arc which owned assess technology was family friends of the Walton family spent his entire career at WalMart until he retired at the age. I think of like forty four and without going in all the details that stock has had a significant negative impact on client portfolios over the last couple years. Now it hasn't this year because of the position size now in portfolios. But the last couple of years it was a much higher percentage position, which therefore has higher impact short-term. Now, why is this important investors move from one manage money manager to another because they don't like the return? Yeah. But the problem is they don't know how the returns were garnered. They don't know what risks were taken to get the returns good or bad. Okay. And we're now in a situation where we are moving down the field on a lawsuit that zest is filed against WalMart because. Because we believe WalMart stole the technology is public information soon for two billion dollars the ability to have a conversation with a client and say, look, if you look at your portfolio right now, remember, you don't make or lose money till you sell something. But you can clearly see that zest has been the major drag on your portfolio returns in the last couple of years. And although you may not like that in may frustrate you the fact of the matter is your long term investor in businesses. And would you sell the stock of it was at five ten fifteen or twenty now probably not it's down. But if the long-term fundamentals by disciplined, right long-term fundamentals gotten better worse or the same. And when you have this kind of conversation with a client who's portfolios, maybe drug back a little bit and say, well, here's the deal. Yes. Short-term we're not it's not doing as well, and helping your portfolio return short-term. So you. Get warm and fuzzy, but oh, by the way, it was two billion dollar lawsuit against mart, which could no guarantees. But could have a game changing significant impact on your portfolio? And when you have that conversation with the client what happens is a client says will he's not selling. It is he right while I was just I was just gonna say on Mike portfolio socks to holy crap. This is huge. Yeah. I wanna buy more. Yeah. That is the power of clarity. That's the pop. That's how investors should be investing. Because that's how business owners invest. Yep. All right. My soapbox. I appreciate that. By the way, that that didn't knock you off the pedestal in any way, shape or form mister Pearson. Sorry, if you were attempting to fall down, but yeah, you caught yourself at the end there. All right closing statements before we wrap up today's podcast. And then you just triggered a whole bunch of questions that I'm gonna ask you about this next podcast, which is active versus passive, so any closing thoughts. All I would say is there is a power in knowing what you own and why you own it. There is power in invested in with clarity. And I would just say from commonsense standpoint. Wouldn't it make sense that you have every evanger could help you be successful investor? All right. All right, Mark. Thank you so much for your thought leadership today in walking through SM as versus mutual funds versus ETF's. You got it boss. All right. If you have not subscribe to the podcast, make sure you click that subscribe now button below that way. Every time our comes out, they new podcast or directly on you're listening device. And if you don't mind, go ahead and share it with your friends and family. I'm sure you know, somebody who could truly use this information. So for everybody at nexus, and for you to remember to invest with clarity. This is Matt Halloran, and we'll see you on the other side of the Mike very soon, the content disgust is for informational purposes, only, it is not a solicitation or recommendation for any securities that may be mentioned here in advisory services offered through naps eight and SEC registered investment advisor.
#108 - AMA #13: 3-day fasting, exogenous ketones, autophagy, and exercise for longevity
"Lou everyone welcome to a sneak. Peek asked me anything or AMA episode of the drive podcast. I'm your host Peter. At at the end of this short episode. I'll explain how you can access the Ama full along with a ton of other membership benefits we've created or you can learn more now by going to Peter. Md DOT COM FORWARD SLASH. Subscribe so without further delay. Here's Today's sneak peek of the. Ask Me Anything episode. Welcome to another edition of. Ask Me Anything Ama episode thirteen. I'm joined again today by my head of research. Bob Kaplan in this episode we talk about a bunch of things it was supposed to be rapid fire but we on the first question got so far off the rails and I think it literally took half the time but it was basically a question about seven. Davis is three day. Water fasts and that evolved or devolved depending on how you think of it into all things related to fasting how you cope with them all the things that you would measure. What's happening physiologically? The use of exotic kitone CETERA. We- then pivoted off to some other topics such as favourite resources that I have for staying to date on information as it relates to medicine health longevity. We talked a little bit about exercise and specifically how one might craft an exercise program around longevity. I hope you enjoy this episode of Ama Thirteen. Everyone welcome to another. Ask Me Anything. Ama with Peter. Attiyah Peter how you doing doing well Bob. How are you living the dream ready to ask you some questions? I'm nervous man. You got that look in your eye. That says you've got questions to make fooling me or something while we're just GonNa do a rapid fire and see which ones stick. Okay rapid fire meeting. You're going to be on the Stop. Watch or yeah. We could do a two minute drill if you want. And then we'll just go over if we need to defeats the purpose. Okay go for it all right first question any early observations from your new three day per month fasting regimen. So I guess for folks who may be aren't familiar. I'll give a bit of background for a great deal of time. I would do a seven day fast. Once a quarter and around Thanksgiving last year I decided to try something different. Which was more frequent fasts that were shorter and so being completely arbitrary. I was like well if I was fasting. Seven days every quarter three days a month is almost the same in terms of total aggregate. Fast time by Bob. This is not going to be a two minute. Answer just FYI. So I decided will what if I could do three days a month and I think part of the rationale was twofold one. The seven day fasts are quite intrusive just in life in general. I've done enough for them. That I can pretty much sail through them but it's seven days of not eating not drinking and I just thought well. Every time I do one of those I noticed that Bhai about the second day of the fast. My glucose levels really start to normalize as in low levels of glucose. Mikey tone levels. Really start to rise. I started to suspect that maybe around day to day three is when some really interesting metabolic stuff is going on and basically figured well. What if we just did a slightly less extreme version where we got some of the benefit that we got from the seven day fast but maybe not all of it but revisited that more quickly so anyway. That was the rationale for it. So actually by total coincidence. I'm on day one of this month's fast and we're recording this UN. What is it March? Second today so this is the march fast. And when was your last meal? My last meal was Sunday evening so I will break the fast Wednesday evening so now having done one. Two three four five of these shorter fasts. They're definitely easier and that's saying even though the longer fasts you get more and more used to them. You have periods during those longer fasts. Where you're at least for me. I'm just sort of dragging I'm kinda wearing. I'm just not my normal self for the three day. Fast sites seemed to skate through them a little bit easier. That's one thing I think the other thing is my exercise. Tolerance seems higher because obviously I'm not subjected to the same degree of glycogen depletion so today for example not the. Today's workout counts because it was the first day after having a dinner so this doesn't really fasted workout but I suspect I could do the type of work that I did today. Which was two hours and superintendents lots of sled work? Lots of dead lifts lots of compound movements. I could do that easily through a three day. Whereas in the longer fast I still try to do those activities each day but I really have to reduce the volume and I just find that during three thousand. Nothing really seems to happen. I will say this Bob. I have not done a lab test on myself at the end of a three day. So that's kind of an important thing I still need to do is do a blood test. I have done a blood test on myself after a four-day fast and I was very surprised to see it looked almost identical to the stuff you and I discussed at the end of a seven or eight day fast and again to reiterate for folks what that was insulin. Of course. Basically UNMEASURABLE glucose has very low triglycerides. Not that low again. Because you're probably you've got so much flocks of triglycerides to free fatty acid going through that. That's basically you're substrate for making all those key tones so not like my triglycerides were high. But they were about the same as they are. When I'm fed uric acid very high free. T three very low reversed. He three very high testosterone. Very low those are sort of signature findings. I see after a long fast. Oh I G F also very low and again. After a four day fast. They looked almost the same so I really do. Need to get around to doing a three day post lab. Maybe I'll do it this time. Now look at my schedule and see if it makes sense but that would be kind of an interesting thing so kind of a long answer to a simple question and I hope that suffices the seven day fast that you were doing before you were doing nothing burger or the KPFK. So you're doing a week of Akita. Genyk diet going into the fasten a week coming out. Are you doing anything different or similar with the three day fast since January so for the last two months I have not been on a full Ketogenic Diet? But I've been much more low carb than I normally have been at least for the previous four five years so. I'm not doing a very strict. Kito but I'm really not eating any sugar. I'm not eating the hardly any starch. The only carbs. I'm eating or sort of vegetables and my one. Little Vice is fiber one cereal with twenty seven pounds of fiber in it. Which is it's amazing. How it does not spike my blood sugar and I mix it in with like some cashew milk and some yogurt but that's probably sufficient to exclude me for making too many key tones but just sort of a slightly more strict dietary restriction. Probably makes it also easier for me to slip in and out of this fast see started last night? Sunday night to get glucose in PHP on Monday morning. And what does that look like? And maybe relative to what you're doing when you're full Kito not half Kito right. I didn't today. I'll probably do my first check tonight. I would expect key turns tonight to be in the neighborhood of point. Five to one and you may recall. I use these two devices. One of them seems I think a little bit more accurate at lower levels which is the precision Xtra. The Kito Mojo seems to run very high low levels. I'm also GONNA be testing out a new breath device for measuring acetone. I don't think it's commercially available yet. But Dom Dagestani know who many listeners will recall having been on the podcast and I might add. We're going to have dom back on to do a follow up because there's been so many great questions for Dom who is one of the most knowledgeable people on this topic but anyway I'll be testing a breath. Acetone device that I think is still sort of in the research phase and looking to see if there's any correlation between that and be. Hp historically the answer is no historically breath. Acetone testing is not very well. Correlated with blood testing so for that test. I've got a breathalyzer here at home. I think it's called a key tonics and it basically it's acetone and I think it gives you red yellow and green and green means. You're in. Let's say it's probably like the peace drips of the urine strips. It's not giving me an output of a number it's just basically saying you're in deep ketosis urine moderate or probably undetectable. Does this new device. Have anything that's a little more accurate than the stoplight. Or the traffic light. It's sitting in the box. And one of the people who works with me in the practice has done all the vetting on it including talking with the company so I have to talk with her today to actually get the tutorial on it so I don't know how quantitative versus qualitative. It is but based on an email. She sent me last week after she did a pretty deep dive into it. I'm going to guess that it's actually somewhat quantitative and hopefully pretty impressive. Look for me personally. I just like checking my blood. I don't really some great advantage in in checking breath ketones but I can understand that there are advantages to at one. It's going to be a heck of a lot cheaper. Because when you're checking in the blood those strips really do get expensive and to there are people who don't like to poke their fingers so it's probably more accessible so and we shouldn't lose sight of what the purpose of this type of testing is which I think is easy to do. It's basically there is a guidepost and I think frankly it's more helpful during f.a.s.t. When someone is trying to go through nutritional says than it is during fasting during fasting. It's just kind of a way to fight a little bit and look. I'm as guilty as the next person. 'cause I'm always checking my key tones three times a day when I'm fasting but I truthfully don't know that that's that relevant. There's nothing I can do about it per se. I will say this one interesting observation that I learned in fast. Maybe two years ago was I decided to experiment and consume Diet Steph Diet Cokes and Trident sugarless gum and stuff like that. So I wasn't adding any calories to the fast and it could be true true and unrelated but I'll tell you I never forgot the lesson which was I've never had lower key tones and I've never felt more miserable during fast and that by the way can be sort of the power of suggestion. I think sometimes when you're ketones are low you think you feel crappy. Maybe you don't but the numbers clearly were low that is not subject to a placebo effect whether I felt good or bad might be but that was a sort of an interesting lesson that came from checking those key tone levels during the fast was I realized. Hey there's something about these non nutritive sweeteners that might be impairing Ketosis or at least impairing some aspect of the fast that is increasing kitone production so for people who are trying to get into nutritional ketosis. I think these devices are probably helpful and who knows I mean? I think we're probably within the next few years we'll see continuous kitone meters. Just as we have continuous glucose meters dethrone an insulin to meaning continuous. One Monitor. Well that's an interesting topic. Thank you for listening to today's sneak. Peek Ama episode of the drive. If you're interested in hearing the complete version of this ama you'll want to become a member. We created the membership program to bring you more in depth exclusive content without relying on paid ads. Some membership benefits are many and beyond the complete episodes of the AMA each month. They include the following ridiculously comprehensive. Podcast show notes the detail every topic pay per person and thing we discuss on each episode of the drive access to our private podcast feed the qualities which were a super short podcast. Typically less than five minutes released every Tuesday through Friday which highlight the best questions topics and tactics discussed on previous episodes of the drive. 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Todd Tresidder Learn From Your Mistakes, Dont Feel Bad About Them
"And so he had all kinds of great stories about how this company was going to the moon and he didn't understand set back with this company was going to fly and i was a stupid kid and i bought it hook line and sinker and and i put even more money into it so i made a stupid mistake of averaging down on a loss you know chasing good money after bad and eventually it went to zero. I lost everything as low fellow risk-takers and welcome to my worst investment ever stories of laws to keep you winning in our community entity. We know that to win an investing. You must take risk but to win big. You've got to reducer. Today's episode is sponsored by women building wealth membership group the complete a proven step-by-step course to guide women from novice to confident investor to learn more go to women building wealth dot net. My name is andrew stotz from ace thoughts. Investment aspen research and i'm here with featured guests todd tressler todd. Are you ready to rock. I'm ready. Let's do it. Let me tell the audience. It's a bit about you. Todd is the author of seven personal finance books with an eighth coming shortly. Where do you find the time uh-huh he created a course on strategic wealth. Planning is the founder of financial mentor dot com a popular personal finance site also is a self made millionaire and was financially independent at age thirty five ladies and gentlemen a little round of applause. That's pretty amazing that of course was more than two decades ago and he's been coaching clients for the last two decades on how to do the same giving him. An unusual depth of experience and ladies and gentlemen two decades of sustaining financial independence independence is maybe just as impressive as the time it took for him to gain financial independence todd has maintained his wealth by remaining an active investor in utilizing statistical and mathematical risk management systems for investing through his website at financial mentor dot com he teaches advanced danced investing an advanced retirement planning principles people who work with todd take the next step beyond conventional financial advice and discover what works what what doesn't and why based on his years of proven experience thanh take a minute and filling in for the tidbits about your life why i think you covered the financial nut head aspect of me pretty well so yeah i have a passion for personal finance and investing the personal side wasn't really in there so oh you know i'm kind of an i'm also an outdoor person so skiing backpacking hiking mountain biking you know that's what i really enjoy doing reading books. I love reading you know so. That was one of the neat things that i learned in. Attaining financial independence was leading a satisfying life is really about spending a lot of money. It's being will do what you enjoy. Unfortunately the things i enjoy don't cost a lot of money. Once you get the basic toys you need to do so. I think that's probably about doing this. The other thing there was <hes> you know when i was in hedge from business i spent twelve years researching most of the investment strategies that existed at the time so i spent twelve years doing all kinds of quantitative computer research in the investment markets which is where i built a lot of my knowledge but my my bad investment came before that so <hes> and just out of curiosity if you were to encapsulate your style your the way you think about investing how would how would you describe it. I mean i know here it. You say statistical and mathematical risk management is how would you describe it in a nutshell gal about the way you think about investing compared to others on a pure quantum so for those that don't know what that means quant is short for quantitative so i'm purely by the numbers i actually had an interesting test when we ran hedge fund because i'm actually pretty good at investing using my brain in so we actually ran a side by side tests where we have the systems that i developed the quantum systems and then we had me and i tried to out trade my systems and i was probably right about seventy percent of the time i'm getting in it's right in that neighborhood and then but the twenty to thirty percent of the time that i was wrong i'd be wrong owned by so much that eventually the methodologies would be so even though it'd be right more often than the methodologies the risk management disciplined in the quant methodologies would end ended up passing the up every time and is the risk management in the quantum methodology because a quantum methodology remove some of the emotion from it or are you. You're saying that you an in you are particularly good at removing the emotion already but the quan added edge because of that whatever emotion you brought to it it takes cakes it out yeah. Exactly you know humans. I was <hes>. There's a piece i need to write. It's all mapped out door taught hardwired to fail and it's just basically glade humans are hardwired to fail in dusting and the reason for that is were social group dynamic animals and so the time when we're most confident is is the time where we're most likely to be wrong and so you know we seek way. We think we seek social proof. We seek crop rating evidence and we just you know we have very much impaired judgment to do investing right and then on top of that the essence of investing is putting capital at risk into a noble future in so when you put capital risk into an unknowable future if it's by definition unknowable of course becomes how do you do that and the answer is through understanding expectancy mathematics in the future value equation equation and building methodologies that respect the mouth and how wealth compounds and i know it sounds like a mouthful but if people listen to it and they take and look those things up and dissect sect. They'll see what i'm talking about so anyway you know once you understand it. It's really pretty simple and straightforward but it just takes a lot of learning understanding because it's completely different framework of understanding understanding how to in dust and i have one last question about your thinking in your methodology and that is if we let's just look at twenty years years of your performance and let's just say that on average your performance. Was you know let's say ten percent as an example and the question that i would ask is when i was young. I used to think that getting that type of average annual performance or whatever it is that it was all about hitting home runs it was about the gains and later of course i grew up and i realize holy crap. It's a lot more or maybe a lot more than i thought about preventing the massive losses so if you could dissect that ten percent average annual return which is very difficult to do to say what amounts that's coming from the risk management of avoiding massive downsides versus. What's coming from capturing in a big upsides. How would you split that. Is this about out you know i wouldn't i wouldn't sell it. What i would say is that you have to have both the way i explain it is if you want to know what the american will talk about the american football right. If you want to know what the top team is is going to win the super bowl each year. It's not going to be the absolute best or most of the time. It's not gonna be the absolute best defensive team and most of the time it's not going to be the absolute best defensive team usually the team that will win. The championship is a team. That's it's in the top ten or twenty percent in both categories. It's the combined weight of the two. When you understand again the math of how wealth compound you understand that it's both it's not an either or and you can't wait it one way or the other the less you lose when you're wrong bless you have to make when you're right to win the game in so so you just have to consistently compound so consistencies the key you've got you know it's basically i mean if you will get mathematical. Expectancy is probability times. Pay off. Eh the payoff equation that screws everybody up. It's not intuitive. Everybody thinks in terms of probability right. That's what's intuitive. We think of the odds of something happening whether or not we're going to winner not or what the chances are we're gonna win. That's how everybody thinks but the way wealth compounding works is it's expectancy. It's not probability so in expectancies probably tons uh-huh pay off and when you look at the payoff equation. It's you know average win time. I'm sorry it's the average of the average loss in the gate. You relative relative gains in so you have to look in realize the one thing you can truly weight and control is the payoff equation and so because probabilities are difficult in an unknowable future and so it just really changes the emphasis when you understand how this stuff works mathematically and what you have to do well. That's fascinating for the listeners out there. I know i've got plenty of this news. Who like a disciplined approach a thoughtful way of looking at it and structure. I think they're going to check you out for sure well now. It's time to share your worst investment ever since one goes into the worst investment thinking it will be tell us about the circumstances leading up to it and then tell us your story all right well. I was fresh out of college and i'd been you know i had a decent resume coming out of college college. I been like the business manager for all the campus businesses and all this stuff and so this takes you back a bit in time it would have been what middle nineties and there was the book in search which of excellence. I don't know if you remember that owen and h._p. Was one of the top companies to work for and i went to h._p. Straight out of college and i was working for him in there is a friend of mine in the credit department and he was talking. We're having lunch together one day jib jabbering talking chopper whatever and he was talking about a new company that they were working what they were buying h._p. Mainframes and they were listed in the pink sheets on the nasdaq seeking probably already tell or this is going so he kind of had his hot tip. He was putting his money in it he had done since he was in the credit department. He had done a financial analysis of the company and all this so. This is like this cool insider scoop. I had on this amazing emerging company right that was they had this algorithm. That was dominating. How mail was going to be sent. I mean it sounds so absurd now but it sounded good and so i was busily saving for my m._b._a. I had i'd come out of. You've read your undergraduate. I was but i had to pay my way through school. I wasn't a silver spoon and i was trying to pay off my school costs and i was saving money and and so i- plunked my savings down into this pink sheet stock and initially it went up but i didn't know anything about new issues. I knew nothing about how this business worked and so i didn't understand that that's pretty standard protocol for new issues with they'll do is they'll pump them up in order to get you know people excited about the stock doc and it's going to the moon and they create demand and and so i was in early enough that i got an initial rise up and i kept plunking more money into it the more the more i put into it i thought boys is gonna pay for my college and it's going to be great and then <hes> suddenly it turned and then it started going down and magically lee. The stockbroker called me as it was going down. It was like you could almost read my mind that i wasn't enjoying losing money amazing how that works and so he had all kinds of great stories worries about how this company was going to the moon and he didn't understand setback but this company was gonna fly and i was a stupid kid and i bought it hook line and sinker and i put even more money into it so i made this stupid mistake of averaging down on a loss. You know chasing good money. After bad and eventually it went zero. I lost everything and you can't get much worse investment assessment than that and that was my very first investment ever so my very first m- investment i lost everything. What a lesson at such a time time at the right time really ultimately yeah in hindsight. It was the perfect time right because i had no money i had enough to invest in it but in terms of where we're at today it was an inconsequential amount of money but to me it was a huge amount of time. It was everything i had it was less than ten thousand but it was measured in thousands right now. Go in for a kid trying to save for graduate school. That's a lot of money and so i lost all i'm curious about in fall yet. How did the the emotions go. I mean obviously you must've felt like hero. At the beginning felt excited that you got some inside information. You found a company that that people don't know and it's exciting fighting but then when it starts to turn and then broker calls or other things happened. What was the trajectory of your emotion over that time. Oh just hope blind aligned ignorant hope you know just thinking it's going to come back and you know i had the inside scoop and the broker said it's going good and you know and it would just keep going down and it was painful enough at some point you just throw the town you god jesus the whole things gone you know and oh my god. How stupid could i be and all that but you know even and then when i lost it all. I didn't even know enough to know how stupid i was. You know it's like i didn't realize all the mistakes i've made at the time it was only in hindsight as i started learn i realize allies you know the depth and the level of all the different mistakes i was making and i wanna go through those mistakes but one of the things that i would i would highlight at this point. I'm curious what your thoughts are is it having spent most of my life originally studying finance and starting with very little money so i couldn't even really invest that much in the beginning so i was really careful as i you know moved into allocating my money into stocks and in the market but when i see people come into the market who don't i don't know anything about the market in some ways. It's like an ipad. People even say you know. Is this the way it works. You know like this is the way it works. She started making a salary brokers call you you and this is cool and yeah you win. Some lose some. This is like to some extent. It's like business massive misconception when young people come into the market and as as i always say having worked for my career as an analyst for brokers in thailand is the less you know the more you're welcomed yeah. I don't know about that. I've never really worked on the sales side of the industry. I've only worked on the industrial management side of the industry which we can get into if you want curious like when you're young and you're going in the market. Did you just think like this is what everybody does. You get a tip. You hear something you do a little bit of research you know i really. I really think it was more gamblers mentality. I think i just you know i just thought i had a hot stock tip and i thought i had inside info and this was just a slam. I am dunk and i was going to put money in and i was gonna pull shitload out and you know i was stupid. I didn't know what i was doing. Well listeners out there. Get get ready to learn the lessons from this because i know that we've got listeners out there who have been eyeball in a particular stock or particular asset class or particular thing sink in this is gonna fly and i've got inside information or i've got something that really other people don't see so todd. Let's go through. What lessons did you learn from list experience. How long do you have <hes>. We got all the time in the world high well. Let's just kind of start counting so mafia so one is buying in hot stock tips right. Don't risk money. You can't afford to lose. Don't buy a story right and if you think about your buying on you're you're buying a business so if you're going to buy based on any sort of fundamentals better be business fundamentals. You must must must have a risk management plan in place <music> including an exit strategy. Don't play game that you don't fully understand. I mean i was in the new issue market. It's a very specialized game in there's rules. The game is played by an violated all of them with your stupidity because i didn't know the game don't confuse brains with a bull market by which many many people are doing right now as a record this yep don't ever buy based on news and don't use good money after bad by averaging down in another one. Don't let a winter no loss. That's all i don't know is that is that enough to get going here. I think that's a great list in <hes> i'm. I'm i'm assuming that a lot of those lessons have now been built into the way you invest yourself plus the way that you teach other people to manage their investment investment as our this liftoff that loss was the best investment in education i could have made although i obviously didn't know at the time it was incredibly painful full but in hindsight i mean you know i i kind of lieutenant went. Wow if i could lose that much that fast sheer stupidity. I wonder what i could make if i actually knew what i was doing. <hes> turns out. It's much harder to make money than it is to lose. It's it's really you'll lose money. It's more challenging to make money so oh. My logic wasn't quite correct when i did that. That was the logic that got me in the investment manager business. Was this loss. Actually i was like well shoot. I guess i'm going to have to figure gets out. If i want financial freedom ultimately i have to become an expert investor <hes> clearly. I'm not you know at the time when i <hes> when i made that mistake i clearly wasn't so i figured well i'd better start learning and so i started aggressively reading everything i could on the subject fantastic. Well let me summarize what i take away from it and then see if there's anything you would add the most important thing i'd take away from it that you just said is. You've gotta learn the game before you play play. It and i think that's a critical thing. Let's just take a gambling analogy which you know. Gambling is an investing right because gambling gambling is a negative expectancy bat whereas you can tilt the odds and tilt the tilt the game in investing to where you can have a positive expectancy experience but just just to stay with it because you're basically in capital risk into a noble future with gambling so there's some analogies that apply. I lost where i was going to go with it. I'm so busy explaining being the difference between gambling and investing but i can tell you one thing one way to think about gambling is just a flip of the other way and when you think about the house and we say the house always wins the point is that's a positive expectancy. That's what todd's talking about the idea that with investing over the long term you have the likelihood that you're going to get a positive return whereas if you're the gambler walking into the room basically you have expecting scene. It's going to be negative i know. Will i remember where i was going with the story so the story went. Was you know take a blackjack player. That knows all the probabilities knows all the odds for every given hand in for every card hard the dealer shows you know he stills running a negative expectancy bet less. He's a card counter and there's a minimum number of decks. They're playing out of right and even then he can only. He told the odds slightly if he's really good card counting but you know if you go in and you don't know any of that then then you're expectancy is horrific you know then it's pure gambling literally gambling. There's no you're just gonna lose money. If you're going to just take whimsical bets unless purely lucky i just i like like what i'm taking away from this. Which is no the game before you play the other thing that i take away from his you know todd through through my talks with many many people now about the worst investment ever i've identified six common mistakes and i would say that one of the common mistakes that this was would be mistake number two which is the second most common which has failed to properly assess and manage risk yes so part of it is assessing obviously the risk of that particular company and all that but the other part of it is managing risk and that is about the position size how much money when you put into it things like that and yeah the exit strategy and that also brings me to that exit strategy which i i would just briefly talk about from my own experiences that as analyst at broker all of my career and a head of research my true desire was to try i to find stocks that were going up and recommend to my clients at eight. This got a good story. I liked the management the industry's good bob la but the hardest thing for an analyst i and for anybody really is that decision of what to do when the stock goes down and i think that that is where we when we talk about the emotion shen in investing that is a brutal emotion the motion of starting to fail and the intensity of that we've seen from nobel prize research you know nobel prize in economics research about the pain of loss is two and a half times the the feeling of excitement when you're winning being and that is really the time that if you do not have a risk management system in place it could be a stop loss. It could be you know. Just you know you're mean mean. Some people's risk management system from like long-term investors that i've met fund managers they their risk management systems. I'm going to always buy cheap <unk>. I'm never going to buy expensive stock because that's my way of managing my risk but other people use stop laws and other things but my goodness have a risk management strategy for every single one of your investments just curious about what your thoughts are for the audience about the importance of risk management and how could they even think about that. That's a hard thing for someone new to the game to think about. It's the first consideration investing. I always think in terms of what can i lose <unk> an only secondarily. Do i consider what can win. My focus is entirely on controlling losses and how could earn we're nearly greedy meaty right the only way to balance yourself is to focus on the law side of the equation to bring balance to the analysis <hes> um yeah and that i think is a critical so so let's move now into the actionable advice based upon what you've learned from this story and what you continue to learn what one action would you recommend our this tape to avoid suffering the same fame or we're gonna sound repetitive but risk management right focus on risk management first and foremost and the reason for that is you can make all the other mistakes but if you've got this management right you can still win in the long term universe management right anyone mistake berio again in the math of how many compounds a large negative payoff can and destroy your entire expectancy equation in so you can't take large negative pills. I was really lucky. I took my single largest negative payoff in terms of percentage terms arms on my very first investment so it never screwed up my compound return. It just stopped me from com bounding at all and i started a little later right if i'd done it now would have destroyed a lifetime of compounding yet. The years of compounding are also ahead of you are just not as many anymore so you've lost that not only the compounding that you've done on but also the potential for that big compounding that happens in your twenty and thirty and forty yeah. You don't wanna start over at age fifty eight. It's much better to start over after only losing a few grand age twenty twenty three or whatever i was exactly exactly okay so risk management is key last question and what's your number one goal for the next twelve months my chorus so expectancy wealth planning course that i have on my website at financial dot com that chorus i got one last module to build out the the promise of the course is already totally built out. I just have one extra module and building out this kind of concluding module and then i'm going to build out the we all the evergreen launch funnels so build a wholesale system behind it to support it so i'm excited building that out it's already doing well and in clients are loving it and so now it's time to get it to be accessible to a lot. More people get exposure to lower people. That's fantastic and for the listeners out thiamine about the the beauty of this podcast is that we get to meet people who are willing to step through their worst investment and trust me most people say no. I know when i asked him to come on the show really absolutely most surprising the i mean so what so you made investment loss. It's sort of like if you don't strike if you don't strike out you're not swinging the bat. I mean everybody's got him. What's there to be ashamed of but i think you a good example and and i really want you know want listeners to hear that because it's critical you're a professional your guy that knows finance very well and you understand the value of walking through your worst investment but i can tell you that the first you've got an issue of embarrassment and shame people who who have lost on feel embarrassed. They feel shameful about one happened. The second one is that they also have a perception that people would you know feeling that people would perceive them as you know they would build their perception around that particular laws when in fact people build perception around you know positive perceptions around people who are willing to explore and talk about their loss and learn from it and so yeah it's a challenge and you know i my hats off to you and i think for the listeners out. There still make investment mistakes every day. I mean i'd i'd lose money still the differences now. I make very small losses. I'm very good at risk management and i make very large winds when i'm right over time compounds into something successful but i still screw up all the time the differences this is not understand risk management exactly and i think that for the listeners out there you know i think let's appreciate the people that come on the show who are willing to share that story and i think i'll wrap this up by just saying there's another story of loss to help us keep winning to find more stories like like this previous episodes and resources to help you reduce your risk visit my worst investment ever dot com and get to know the many people who are willing to go through their story of loss loss as we end todd. I wanna thank you again for coming on the show. I know it's painful talking about losers but our listeners learning to win as a result. Do you have any parting words for the audience audience yeah. We'll just close on the note you're talking about. Which is this really not painful to talk about your losers. Nobody's born smartvestor. Nobody's born skilled at this as a matter of fact. We're we're hired wired. Were delayed that is opposing. What we should be doing is a smart investor. That's one of the reasons i use. Quantitative disciplines is overcome. My natural emotions russians so you know it's not painful to talk about this. This is part of learning how to invest is to recognize that if you're gonna use judgment but like that and stories and stock tips and stuff like that guess what you're going to have the next story and that is true so i think that's a great way to end this episode by challenging the listeners to say stories of loss are actually the stories that we gain from and i think todd has given us a great example of that well. That's a wrap on another great story to help us create grow and most importantly protect our wealth fellow risk-takers. I'll see you on the upside.