5 Episode results for "Hassan Kim"

Wrap Up Show Padres Trade for Blake Snell

The Darren Smith Show

38:06 min | 9 months ago

Wrap Up Show Padres Trade for Blake Snell

"Right now command the season persons. Kia if you're looking for a new kia persons. Zero percent financing and leases starting at one thousand nine per month check them out at hearses. Kia dot com. This is a row of them now. We go live to the extra thirteen. Sixty studios with john. Schaefer and jim russell. The padres poll often absolute shocker. It is the off season edition of the wrap up. Show john shaffer. End jim russell. Follow us on social media for the latest padres content on twitter. John schaefer that's jail when s. c. h. e. f. f. at jim russell s d late sunday night. Jim the padres stunningly landing blake's now from the raised a deal for four prospects including louis patino francisco mahia blake cont catching prospect and coal wilcox former third rounder of the padres. This this past year who they signed for a lot of money in absolute stunner. Jim and the padres might not even be done yet. We'll get into that. What was your reaction when you found out. I texted you and you text me back like five minutes later. Saying i was actually cooking when i got the news. You know when you we all do the trait scenarios like right like oh if they traded this guy for this guy and a lot of times. They're all pipedreams fantasy. This to me felt like something we talked about the second. This offseason happened. Yeah and the rumors started happening where blake snell was going to become available and the first thing in my mind. I'm your mind and a lot of padres minds whereas oh blackstone the padres. It's going to happen. That's got to happen and it did happen. In what i what i love about is look the padres have got all these prospects and while louise patino is a nice prospect and top prospect in baseball guys not proven yet. What he did last year to me he kind of underperformed maybe he was brought up too soon in my eyes because with no minor leagues. You needed to get this guy. Some work in probably brought up wheel too soon. The other guys gave away co wilcox. He was a third round draft pick. He was signed for first round draft. Pick money to three million bucks. Three million bucks up. He's obviously unproven francisco. Mahia huge disappointment since coming over here. I didn't think you had any value whatsoever. And then the other catcher forget his name hunt they also try to blake hunt. Blake hunt. I never heard of his name before in my life so to me getting a guy like blake snell who is a cy young award winner. Saw what he did in the world series on the biggest stage last year against the dodgers. There are some concerns with him. Get into those amid here but just getting a a proven starter. Right that can go out there and give you five innings but a proven star that this team literally did not have at the end of last year is a huge upgrade. The you can only look at it. I came everything you said. Here's the thing you can only look at this. Trade is a win. And it's a what i like about this trade. First of all you get the best available pitcher via trade. It was the best available pitcher that you could get via. Trade is because they might be getting another one. Well we'll talk about your the second. What's ns lyn is reporting. But i think blake snell for me. I would take blake snell over you. Darvish at this point in their careers. Right okay so there's that and here's the other. Aj preller should should get a lot of credit for making a trade. That helps the padres in their window of time jim. He's playing for twenty twenty one and he's playing for twenty twenty to make no mistake. I think lewis is going to be a very good. I think his upside is significant. But it's not for twenty twenty one four years down the right every four years. It's twenty twenty two or twenty twenty three the thing with wilcox's again you're looking at twenty twenty three there and with no minor leagues the pushes everything back here. And that's what happened. Like you said lewis. Patino here was a guy that was kind of. I don't know. I mean he was jerked a little bit like ultimately they saw him as a potential starting pitcher in the big leagues yet. They're using them in the bullpen at the midway mark of the season because there isn't a spot for him in two thousand and twenty for him to start bought in the minors there. There's no spot in the big leagues ideal scenario. If everything was right would not have to brought up. Louis patino would've been starting in double air aaa last year exactly and if that works if he was starting triple eight he got off to a good start and had a one or two euros after ten or twelve starts maybe would have been starting for the padres in the big leagues. But this is a win. It's not won the cy young in two thousand eighteen. He's got a two point eight five year overs last three seasons. You're going to have to give up. Good prospects. And i think the padres did that but the padres right now are in the business of trying to find ways to pass the dodgers in the west or make it further into the postseason. Any only way to do that in two thousand twenty one or twenty twenty two is to address your big league roster and that's what aj preller did i give them credit for what he did going after my cleven jer and yet there's some risk associated with that clever now undergoing the second tommy. John surgery like you said with blake snell. Are there concerns. of course there. Are it both chips in two thousand nineteen it a cortisone shot at some point in two thousand. And he's a guy that has averaged five and a third innings per start in his career so he's not lance lynn. He's not your eight or nine in and guy or seven or eight in a guy but what he is when healthy is as effective as any starting pitcher in the big leagues. He has that in his repertoire. And it's not like you on the cy young award ten years ago now to two years ago you know and last year i thought was huge. Bounceback year for him. I think he was injured following his cy young award season. That's why you saw his production dip and then last year. I don't know if it was a race thing or if it was a blake snell thing but either way. They made it so that this guy was going to be the most effective pitcher for only five innings and he was. He had a great year this past year. He had a great postseason. He had a tremendous world series. I mean if the if the race came back in one that world series blake's now's the mvp of the world series right he. He pitched beautifully and he was the main story coming out of game six other than justin. Turner getting cova. The only thing to me is now. What does this signal for the rest of the rotation. Because you have a lot of question marks still with dinelson lamet chris paddack zach davies mackenzie gore if they do pull off this trail with you darvish. We'll talk about that in a minute here. Then it's it solidifies things a little bit more. But i'm also and you told me don't be worried about it but hey i'm a little worried about the nelson lament. No i am okay. No i as well because the last time we saw it looked like it was a significant injury. Busy called for the trainer to come out. It was that final weekend of the regular season against the giants. i think. blake's nells essentially a security blanket to protect you from potential harm to someone like let's say he doesn't make thirty starts next year and there's a decent chance he doesn't make thirty starts next year. There's a decent chance none of these guys do. We're going from a sixty game season to a one hundred sixty two game season. What does the impact on. Someone's arm like a blake. Snell or donaldson lament. Even if they're healthy. But you have to. I know the padres are doing this gym. Unless they pull off darvish as well and they're saying listen we can't we cannot bank on. We've completely replaced are one or two lamentin clovinger with snell darvish. Maybe they literally went from getting mike. Clovinger this past season having a bona fide number one number two one healthy those guys get injured and within a matter of months curricula growth laced them. Both with blake stelle darvish. I don't think that they're doing that. Because i mean unless. Aj prowler is not being truthful. And and i think he is. I think he's being truthful with the information he has way. They're not always truthful. But in terms of injuries i think that when he told them media within the last week or ten days that he anticipates also being ready to go for. Twenty twenty one. I mean they haven't even talked about him throwing a baseball yet. Well he's begun is throwing program hasn't he. They have not talked about it. They have not said he's looked good throwing a baseball. They've all they've said is he has looked good working out like and we've only seen a couple of videos of him lifting weights. Like i want to see him. Throw the baseball and getting blake snell. So you think this deal has a lot to do with the the unknowns revolving around nelson limits health heading into twenty twenty. I think it does. I think there's a little bit of that plays into. It's not healthy. Why wouldn't they undergo some type of procedure like they don't have they don't want to put all the pressure on him because if they don't get if they don't get blake snow and if they don't get a darvish that's putting a lot of pressure on dinelson lamet to push himself farther than maybe he's ready for like. I don't know the extent of this injury. How how bad it was looked bad. He didn't pitch in the postseason even throw bullpen. To get ready. Clovinger went out there through the ball and he got reinjured john member. It was such a short period of time. Jim i mean. I think it was a saturday night and san francisco and then the postseason started wednesday and then they were out of the postseason week after that. It was less than two weeks of time. You know that even insignificant quote unquote small arm injuries or throwing injuries or pitching. Injuries can take a couple of weeks. So that's what i that's what i'm hoping for. Hopefully the padres have more medical information than i do about to nelson the matt. But i don't think we're position right now to write off the nelson lament for twenty twenty one. But yeah. are there question marks upsetting to twenty two twenty one absolutely with johnson lament for a moment. Let's assume some level of health for lament as let's assume you can make twenty starts. Not thirty starts all right. Let's just let i. Honestly i would take. That would take if you would tell me right. Now that he's gonna make twenty healthy starts. He'll be healthy for the entirety of the year. Going into a possible postseason run. We would take that. I've take so listen to her. The way your rotation shakes out right now for twenty twenty one blake sale as your one okay nelson limit potentially as your to assuming health zach davies. Who was awesome in the regular season. Not so much. The postseason as your number three chris paddock needs to bounce back. Is he capable of being a number four number five starter in the big leagues. Yes based on twenty nine thousand nine maybe not based on twenty twenty and then your fist bought some combination of these young pitchers. Maybe maybe it's mackenzie gore. Maybe it's a ryan weather's you know. Give me maybe. It's a maybe it's a veteran starter and i'm not even talking about eu darvish and i'm not talking about trevor bauer and i'm not talking about sugano. The cape not. Excuse me palm professional baseball league star japan. Who won japanese equivalent of the cy young award last year. Pitch to an era under to last year went. Fourteen two would you. I would take this rotation compared to the rotation to begin twenty twenty because to begin two thousand twenty you didn't have clemenger. Lament was a question mark in terms of how he would bounce back. And you didn't have blakes now. This rotation when healthy. I'm already putting new. Darvish in the mix like dennis reported there deepen talks with with the cubs on utah. What's the latest there. That's the latest. That's the latest deep in talks to acquire yu. Darvish you at this unbelievable year finished second in the cy young voting yet to me. It's done like when you say. Hey we are deep in talks or it's reported that a team is deep in talks with another team for a certain player to me. it's done. They are just working out the other pieces of the puzzle but the main. Ps which is you darvish. And whoever else the padres wanna trade back is done like to me. That's that's that's what i see. And that's what i read. When i see dennis lyn reporting their deep in talks with the cubs darvish well and also there were some discussions about potentially the catcher wilson contrary us as well from the cup. John heyman reported. Even though i'm blocked on twitter by makes no sense no sense whatsoever. I've never tweeted the guy my life. He said that the padres are also looking for catcher. Help make sense. They got rid of makiya. You don't you don't know how lewis camp you saw. No we'll fair. I mean he had what three at bats last year. I don't know if he's ready to be a major league. Catcher yet. Austin nola he is shout out. Happy birthday austin nola but awesome his birthday and it's his birthday. Oh out is he thirty one or his his thirties already. But to me. Austin nola is a guy who is still making his way being catcher like he's not a season vet behind the plate yet. He's a guy who performed well last year behind the plate but he hasn't had a ton of experience behind the plates they need another catcher. But they've fired austin nola. We were sold in the fact that he's controllable right. He's not going to be even arbitration eligible under control for what the next four or five years. They got him for his bat. They needed a guy behind the dish. Actually hit the baseball. In austin is a guy behind the beyond the plate that can actually make some contact with the ball so to me like but i thought he was a good game caller as well. I thought he did. I did really well last year. Because he didn't hit with the padres. But i thought he did well with the staff. But if you're telling me that if you're catchers next year awesome nola in we camp you saw. No that's a little bit of concerning. Well it's interesting so yeah he isn't arbitration-eligible until two thousand twenty three. He isn't free agent eligible until two thousand twenty six. We'll be in his mid to late thirties at that point. Would you take wilson contrary us in his prime a time all star over austin nola obviously at the catching position. How old is contrary. She's twenty eight so you're you're getting younger at that position. You're getting a guy that is not free agent eligible until i believe twenty twenty three if not twenty twenty four. He only supposed to make a handful of million dollars. Maybe five or six million dollars this upcoming season. Yeah like like i. I see it. That people might look at austin nolan. Like well why get another catcher when you already have an awesome. No this is not a business of oh we already have this guy so we don't need to get anybody else if you can upgrade at a position of you upgrade at that position. You can't upgrade at shortstop because not already the top tier machado top tier. But if you tell me right. Now that freddie freeman out there right to get traded. I'm in a heartbeat. Let me ask you this first of all. Did tommy fan play a role. Do we have the sound from blake. Snell when he found out the tommy families traded a year ago from tampa to san diego. Remember this is well. Blake snell said and did tommy fan play a role in helping the padres acquired. Blake's now listen to this fairmont rambo again slavic prospect. You slept dig prospect That's all i think about people sound and it's perfect padre. It's a full circle. They're both padres it. I know they got traded for slap. Dick prospects i love. Did you read. I think dennis lind wrote it. He said that fam- basically reached out to preller or padres the padres front office and said if snell's available you need to make a run at this guy like this guy will only can do only one thing and that is help you win so yes fam- at a very tricky twenty twenty year right the injuries the situation off the field but if he played a role in bringing blake snell sandiego was being with it. That's the best thing he's done so all right. Oh yeah that's the best. That's the best thing. He's done in padres uniform even though he wasn't in uniform when he probably called. Aj preller or talk. They might have been in uniform. Maybe i mean the guy works out. Twenty four seven to get blake. Snell i think you know the raise they do it right. You always are worried when you trade with the raise by the way for the rise. I do too. Because they've always got one eye on the future point they can't only look at now. No but at the same time you when you trade with the raise always kind of looking at it from a fan's perspective and from our perspective is like ooh that you don't want to trade with somebody that knows what they're doing because they might know something right how they beat us and that was a little bit of my thinking at the end of the year with tommy family maybe the race kind of knew something but i do think that if healthy hopefully knock on wood will be this year. Tommy fans gonna make a big difference on this team. Joris our jake. Chronicler did last year. And i thought that he kind of you know saved the season a little bit to start the year when eric hosmer went out. If if colonel doesn't step in to play first base and produces like he did for that three or four weeks span there. While eric hosmer was dealing with the bubble guts like who knows where that team would have been so to get fan in crow worth and look at the trade that they sent over grenfell's on the raise anymore martinho while he did perform well. He's he's manual go. We know what we know what he is. This is such a crazy day. Jim that we haven't even mentioned the fact that the padres are also reportedly in autumn middle. Infielder out of the k b o right in ha-sung cam who by the way is being reported at least by the new york post may play some time at second base. I mean here. Here's the problem he came up. He's been a shortstop in korea. He's not gonna be a shortstop with the padres. If you played second base with the padres you'd have to potentially move. Jay krona worth to the outfield is their spot for j krona worth in the outfield ha-sung kim last year and the had no peace over nine hundred. He's only twenty five years old. He's been up since he was eighteen. There are not a ton of examples of korean-born players that have made the leap from the cabo two major league baseball successfully but there are recent examples and this wasn't going on in the nineties or two thousands but in the last handful years we've seen major league teams scout korea like they've scouted japan and bring some guys over but it sounds like the padres have significant interest. This deal mike. It done as soon as today or this week in free agent ha-sung kim who again had big power. Number's thirty home runs last year. Korean and the padres have a scout in korea full-time fulltime scout increase. So they have watched this guy very closely for the last couple years. I think bringing him over. I mean look just like when you go to high reading here about a player. You immediately highlight reel right. The first thing you do is go to the highlight reel. He looks like a guy who should be in the major leagues. I know the competition gave yo is different is different. It might not be as good as what you get. It's not in major league baseball. Yup but so you can project it if it's a aa league And you see some tearing up double a. Then you can project it out and you project it out. And he's not a young guy either. Twenty five twenty six. I love it right in the prime of his prime of his career. And if you can get him for a four year deal forty million and he produces over here maybe not to the extent he did in the k o but he's still produces right. That's all that's a steal and a win and then ask yourself this. Why would the padres be wanting an extra outfielder. Maybe because they want to shed some payroll that is currently in their outfield Wil myers so it when you when you think about well. J. krona worth in left field. You already have tommy. Pham you already have a center fielder. And trent grisham. You already have right fielder. And we'll myers but is there a trade out there. Potentially you've talked about with dana's reporting regarding yu darvish if you take on you darvish and that salary you're going to have to shed some salary. There's no way the padres are taking on all of that. Darvish contract which is pushing what sixty million dollars over the next three years pushing that lot. He's what thirty five thirty six years old right. His is best years you would think are behind him pitch really well last year but he was unbelievable last year. He's only thirty four thirty four thirty four. Here are the numbers last year for you darvish. Who with the cubs finished second in the national league. Cy young voting. He was eight and three with a two point. Zero one in twelve games all starts ninety. Three strikeouts in seventy six innings. Career numbers are really good. Aj preller has ties to the texas rangers ties to darvish from perspective. It makes sense. You say we'll does make sense bringing on salary. Will maybe if you're dumping salary at the same time with someone. Like a wil myers and ac reported today that The padres have engaged in talks that would result in unloading salaries. So i think if they get this you darvish deal done in. My is already done like i. I'm already putting yu darvish on this team. They're gonna unload. You're really putting yu darvish on this team right now. I don't know if we can go there. But i'll do it. I'll do it from the hypothetical where there's smoke there's fire and there's enough smoke here to to make a big fire. We talk about the twenty twenty one rotation again then sure if they lend you darvish. It looks like this. And i don't know about the order but lament coming off the injury maybe a slot them down. Maybe you go blake's now you darvish to nelson lament and then you go zach davies. Chris paddack i'm on board with that rotation and that rotation gives you a chance to have success in the postseason as well also gives you time to work out whatever kinks there were with mackenzie gore down in the minors thinking about twenty twenty two for second. Yeah it's insane. The twenty twenty two rotation if they pull this off if clever healthy and if cleansers healthy snell darvish cleven jer. Lament gore right. I it's just yeah exact- davies. They might unload his contract. Do i think ten million dollars this upcoming year. Maybe a little bit more. Is there an option on that. Don't have it in front of me. But that could be a guy that could be a guy that they unload to bring over darvish. you know replacing darvish for with with me placing davies with darvish. And then you still have ager more. Hone possible like you have mackenzie gore ryan. Weather's i don't think is ready yet. But still you have joy lucchessi still and he's unrestricted so davies after twenty twenty one home eight and a half is unrestricted. Okay so there's no ties to davis beyond two hundred twenty one. But if that if that trade goes down this rotation can match up with the dodgers. Okay ask yourself this. It's not about necessarily matching the rotation with the dodgers. Here's my question. Can you rotation help equalize. The dodgers lineup like is blake's now you tweeted this out. Last night is blake snell to some extent dodgers killer as a lefty with that lefty dominant lineup right. I mean that's first of all righty struggles against lefties. Bellinger muncie seager. These guys are left handed. Bats if you can bring left handed starting pitching. And i'm not just talking about like random. Generic left handed starting pitching. I'm talking about cy. Young caliber left handed. Starting pitching like blake snell. What does that do from a head to head perspective. I still don't think we it's easy to say. The dodgers were head shoulders above the padres last year. Because of what happened in the postseason but we didn't see the patriots. Jim with either cleven jer. Orla met so. It's an unfair argument to say well. The dodgers the dodgers are world champs to take nothing away from that. I understand that. But that doesn't mean anything heading into twenty twenty one if you add blake snell and you darvish to rotation in terms of finding a way to overcome with the dodgers did a year ago you know. They still are behind the dodgers until they overtake them You still have questions in your bullpen. What what's gonna happen with trevor. Rosenthal kirby yates You know how is that. Going to pan out. So there's still a lot of question marks on this team. But we heard what peter seidler said with darren last week like their main priority right now and we we see it is starting pitching. They need to get starters. We saw what happened in the postseason last year. That can't happen again. like that. just can't happen where they make a postseason run. And then you lose a couple starters and you're like what do we do with the bullpen games. Every game we give yourself no shot none and so seen what. Aj preller is doing now. And this is what i love about. Preller is. he's just like we need something. I'm gonna go get it. And i've said this for years. Whatever aj preller wants to get he can go get. He has enough resources to go get anybody he wants. Essentially pretty much. Anybody traded for cleven jer and for snell without giving up his top. Two prospects right mackenzie gore. Cj abram and he's possibly going to get you darvish probably not for any top prospects either because yu darvish taken on money on money so for aj pro or he can do whatever he wants he can get whoever he wants and he's a type of guy who seemingly when he wants somebody really bad he's going to go get them and that's what i love about preller. Now the issue with blake snow in the one thing that we've talked about You know is is can this guy be more than just a five any pitcher. you know. it's interesting when you phrase it that way and he wanted to be more than five inning pitcher in game six the world series and when he was taken off the mound by kevin cash in that spot and they lost the world series. You basically knew he wasn't coming back right like yeah. It's the raise. And yeah maybe there's a scenario where they could have worked it out in the thirty nine million over the next three years and they're trying to shed payroll. This is a team was in the world series. Seventy million dollar payroll prorated. They're trying to get it under sixty million dollars this year yet. They still want to win. They've got serious question. Marks charlie morton is gone. Lake snell is gone. But they'll find a way. I mean you give it a year if they take a year off like twenty twenty one. I'm not betting against the raise in the long term. But maybe in the short term but always retool at some point and this is what they're doing now is they're retooling. yeah no absolutely. I lost my train of thought. Where were we Blake's no more than five any pitcher. Oh let me tell you what i was looking up on. Blake's now last night in terms of being more than the five inning pitcher and seventy three pitches in game. Six of the world series. Obviously that was a massive mistake. One two and three new order. Oh for six off them. They were do up. Two hits in five and a third innings had a one nothing lead. He was taken out. We know it's not about pitches it's about. How many times do the order does he get. I've got that. I've got that for you and i'm going to tell you. What a half. Because that was the that was the issue is. He's great for the first two times to the lineup. But that third time through the lineup is where he runs into some problem. It's a little bit of a question mark for him in his career. All right first time through a lot in his career opponents have an of five ninety-two. That's incredibly low second time through a lineup in his career opponents oh. Ps goes from five hundred ninety. Two seven eleven which is still well below major-league average for opposing hitters but then third time through a lot of jim opposing opie s. Seven forty two so from five ninety two to seven eleven to seven forty two and by the way major league average last year fro. Ps somewhere around seven forty so third time through a lineup blake snell is allowing hitters to have major league average or even better in his career. So is that a question mark. Is it a concern. Maybe i'm more concerned with his health. As if he can give you. The ninety pitches the one hundred pitches. The one hundred ten pitches. I'm okay with battery having a little bit. More success often thirds through a lot of. That's the nature of the game. That's where we are with baseball. In general i just wanted to have the opportunity to get through a lot for a third time and the way you'll get those opportunities by being able to throw ninety pitches or one hundred pitches or one hundred ten pitches. He wasn't even given that opportunity in game. Six busy through. Just seventy seventy three pitches in that attic. Do you want some breaking news. Yeah all right According to dennis lynn padres have reached agreement with hodgson kim. So there you go. This is is. The craziest is not the craziest day. It's one of i link it to. The trade deadline has past year when he just made a million trades and they were all. I think for pretty good players out. Some of them didn't pan out but still it's to me. It's one of those days again were. Aj preller. he doesn't just make one when he makes one big move. You can expect multiple moves to follow him. What did he make eight trades at the deadline. Eight trades at the deadline You know. I think that the big trades in twenty fifteen was whenever it was like all those winners meeting deals and when he has you know enough bullets in his in his gun so to say he's going to unload the clip and he's been waiting to do this for years for years now. He has been accumulating prospects gaining prospects and this is his time essentially to shine and go out and get whatever he wont remember. They said well he can. He can acquire a system right like he can build a farm system but can he turn it into a winning product at the major league level. And i think he proved that in twenty twenty. Yes was a sure year but now he's proved over and over again from the trade deadline which removes to help that twenty two to the off season which are moves to help your window of time. Twenty twenty one twenty twenty two twenty twenty three the players. The padres have under contract now. Jim through twenty twenty three. It is an unbelievable collection. Fernando tatis junior machado snell lumet grisham krona. Worth nola austin nola mckenzie gore. Chris paddack there is a collection of guys not to mention clever through two thousand twenty two hosmer through twenty twenty. Two we'll myers right now is signed through two thousand twenty three and then you add a player like costs on kim who last year had no in korea as a twenty four year. Old of nine twenty one the year before twenty three year old and no eighty. I mean that's real power. Hit thirty home runs. Had one hundred nine. Rbi's in one hundred thirty eight games. He's been one hundred plus. Rbi guy three times already in the k b o and like you said earlier like i said earlier. It's not the same league but if you can have any type of production that's comparible you're going to be a productive major league player and that's what the padres their scouting department and. Aj preller are banking up and the biggest thing with him last year that i look at six hundred and twenty two plate appearances in a hundred and thirty eight games. He struck out sixty eight times. He had seventy five walks. He hasn't had more than eighty one strikeouts in a full season since his age. Nineteen year fits the mold of what the padres wanna do exactly. He's he's an opiate. S guide doesn't strike out a lot He can steal some basis at twenty three stolen bases last year at thirty three stolen bases in twenty nine thousand nine. It's hard to fault a move like that get it. It's not comparing apples to apples. When you compare k b o stats to major league baseball stats. This is not the nippon professional baseball league. This is typically deemed as a level lower than that. And i think a lot of people compare it to around a aa major league level. But when you look at a guy that had three ninety. Seven on base percentage last year three eighty nine before the year before hits and hits for power and gets on base. that's a good combination. Are you willing to move. Jake jake krona worth for a player like that. There's there's going to be more moves. Like i don't mean move j cronin i mean move his position saying but i think there's going to be more moves where it might free up a spot. In the outfield. Wil myers hint hint hint to shed some payroll because you you sign hassan. Kim okay he is going to play like it's not like a situation where they signed him to be. A bench guy is going to play majority of the time. What were the dollars in terms being discussed earlier today. I think we saw what around five to six year. Five five six years at forty fifty million like this isn't this isn't a contract that's gonna break the bank so to speak and if he can perform a but like performed somewhat like he did in korea. Can you platoon them. You could because. Kim is a right handed. Bat crow worth is a left handed bat well to me this this only signals Strengthening your bench. Like if there's no d. h. this year. Then you're gonna have one of those guys on your bench and it's going to result in having a stronger bench like the padres bench last year towards the end of the season. Wasn't that deep. You had one guy coming off the bench the postseason but even then that was. You're one guy your boy mitch moreland. You're saying more than was you're one guy that you could rely on to potentially have a good at bat. Rookies data position. Zano a bunch of rookies on your bench trying to to give you good at bats and it just wasn't happening and the problem with moreland. Here's the guy without a position. Essentially i mean you could play him at first base that somewhat reliability now we don't know about the d. h. Returning to the national league in two thousand and twenty one i mean this is really a watershed day. Gm the last twenty four hours blake. Snell is a padre the former 2018. Cy young award winner denis. Lynn is reporting that the padres are deep in talks with the cubs to acquire yu darvish. And the padres have signed. Ha-sung kim out of the k b o. A guy that had over nine hundred last year hit thirty home runs. He played shortstop he worked for the padres. I promise you that took some second base presumably. Don't even go there with fernando tatis. Move into center field like it's not going to happen though. It's not happening. stop it now. I will say this about fernando tatis junior this helps keep fernando tatis junior in the padres padres uniform for the long term. And you say how because fernando tatis junior wants to be on a winning team and when you go out and make moves like the move that aj preller has made the last twenty four hours for blake snell for cam potentially for yu darvish as well. That's what is gonna watch him. It's not gonna come down to solely dollars and cents. He's going to be well set regardless he's going to want the dollars and cents and he's gonna wanna win and the padres have done nothing but win and they've made nothing but moves to help win in the future. So i would think this only bodes well for a long term extension fernando tatis juniors well down the road and you know who else it helps mainly machado you. We forget manny machado. Yes signed a ten year contract. He has an opt out after five years. You know so you got to keep him happy as well so you get him for that. Full ten year contract. Because if he's not happy he could easily opt out of after five years and looked to play somewhere else to try to win a world series. You need to keep him happy to. It's not just about fernando tatis junior it's about totti's and machado in my opinion are the padres closer to the dodgers today than they were yesterday. That is unequivocally yes the answer to that question. But that's the thing is aj preller. Does all these moves he he. He creates a atmosphere where half the team could be turned over in a matter of hours. It's a it's it's getting that team to click and to match up with the dodgers when he turns over half the team now. It's good this time because it's in the off season last last year. They did do well. you know. But it's still. He turned over a third of the team with thirty games left. At least now we see all right. He's doing kind of the same thing. I feel like there's going to be more moves made whenever the dr steele officially becomes reality. There's going to be other moves made. I feel like maybe a couple more signings here and there so a turnover of this roster you could say again. Another third of this roster could be turned over for next year. Well here's the thing. That's okay because he has his core. He's got his core for his window. When you've got machado taty snell lament the grissom's cronin worse the future mackenzie gore. Hopefully chris paddock and bounce. Back austin nola under contract with your core is here for your window. Can you win a world championship in this window will find that out and the answer is going to be sooner rather than later because the windows right now. It's twenty twenty one. It's twenty twenty two and it's twenty twenty three. What a day jim. it's not done. We could do a three hour podcast. You're not kidding. we can do. Twenty four hour network. Yeah i think the wrap up show could be a podcast network. It's just one of those things where you look the time and it's like there's more stuff happening nonstop and padres fans are just through the roof right now. It's a it's a time where it to be a padres fan. It's insane the there's things happening just non stop in for our business like aj prowler. I hope he gets a lifetime contract because he is a content. God unbelievable gives us stuff not just like one little nugget. He gives us stuff in bunches. And they're not just small moves like their big sei-hyung award winners. Mvp these are huge moves emai- from the day they signed machado. This has been the most exciting team in baseball. I think to follow really. I mean you look at the padres last. Two plus years tees on everything. Yeah with totti's making his debut with what they did last year at the deadline to going out and trading for blake's now and potentially be on the verge of training for you darvish as well wasn't off season. The hot stove has fully heated up here at the end of twenty twenty. Have much more of these. This offseason as there are more moves or as there is more news updates for you here on the wrap up. Show make sure subscribes the wrap up show on the free iheartradio app. You'll get future episodes automatically again. Follow us on social media at john. Shaffer at jim russell. Sti jim russell. I'm john shafer. This has been a special off season edition of the wrap up show right now. Command the season persons. Kia if you're looking for a new kia. Persons has zero percent financing and leases starting at one twenty nine per month check them out at hirszon's kia dot com.

padres blake snell darvish mackenzie gore Aj preller dodgers blake baseball austin nola jim russell zach davies Darvish nelson aj preller wilcox Austin nola yu darvish Jim tommy fan sung kim
Effectively Wild Episode 1641: The Confounding Free-Agent Market

Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast

1:17:55 hr | 8 months ago

Effectively Wild Episode 1641: The Confounding Free-Agent Market

"To read common from at welcome to episode sixteen forty one effectively wild fan graphs baseball podcast brought to you by patriot supporters. I'm growly a fantastic and joined his always by ben lindberg of the ring ben. How're houria endured. Well i'm kind of confused by this offseason. Don't really understand free agency this year in some ways it's been what we feared or expected in another ways it really hasn't this is prompted by the latest signing one of the highest profile signings. We've seen so far. The white sox signed closer liam hendriks to a contract that it's kinda hard to define really it's sort of a strangely structured contract. Yeah i guess it's most accurate to say. It's a three year fifty four million dollar deal but there is a club option for the fourth year. And so the way it works is that there's a a club option and a buyout. That are both worth fifty million dollars for that fourth year and so he's guaranteed to get the full fifty four million because if they decline then he still gets it and if they pick it up he still gets it and so you would think well. Why would they not pick it up. Why would they want to pay him for nothing less. He's i dunno hurt or completely terrible three years from now or something but there is a reason. I guess because of the way it's structured some of that money is deferred over a ten year period. So the real present day value of the contract is a little lower than fifty four million so they might save some money if they were to not pick up that option and then have to pay him over a long period instead of that year. It's weird but basically fifty four million dollars and that's not really what expected liam hendriks to get now. I'm not gonna say it's unfathomable because he's been the best reliever in baseball over the last couple of years. But i would say it's above expectations and that's been a pattern this year. So we've seen two things happen. We've seen one thing which is a not a lot of activity. It's been slow. Not a lot of the top agents have signed and yet the free agents who have signed seemed to be getting more than people expected for the most part. And i don't know how to square those two things like as just looking at the nfc trade rumors ranking of the top fifty free agents and right now only fourteen of those fifty have signed. Two of those were marcus. Stroman and kevin guzman. Who accepted that. The qualifying offers one of those was hassan. Kim so of the eleven free agents on that list domestic free agents on that list who have signed ten have gotten more than an ob trade rumors projected and in many cases by much more. I think the only exception is greg holland. Who signed to a low dollar deal with the royals. But otherwise it's been all guys exceeding those estimates and that's just one less. I think if you look at craig. Edwards ranking at famed graphs. There's a similar pattern there thinker really anti ranking. Probably so. I know we talked about this. Before when james mcken signed an and he exceeded estimates by considerable margin but now you have hendrix who mlb trade rumors and think also craig had at three years and thirty million he easily exceeded that can easily exceeded cam got a little less than he was projected to get. It's harder to project the player like that coming over from the cape. Yo but you know. Charlie morton mike. Minor who got two years in eighteen was projected for one in six carlos. Santana got two years and seventeen point five was projected for one in six and we could keep going down. The list drew smiley one. Eleven was projected for one in five. So i don't know what to make of that. The estimates just too low. Were we overestimating how bad this offseason would be. Because then how do you square that with the fact that really the pace of signings has been extremely slow. Yeah it's a tricky one to sort out. Because the estimates that we had at fair graphs going into the to the off season and i think this is true across the board when the industry tries to prognosticate in this way. Like we're obviously building in a about what the environment's can be like and so on the one hand you're excited when deals exceed those numbers. When one of the assumptions you have is that the market will be slow and that guys will not find contracts that are necessarily commensurate with their talent. But i think they're still remains the question of whether these contracts and i don't know that hendrix is necessarily the best example of this but if these contracts are in a vacuum good rate if they are actually representative of the market value of the player. Now it wasn't that long ago that drew pomeranz signed a deal for four years and sixty million dollars and i think is the equal of him in terms of talent. So it's it's better. But i don't know if it's necessarily good but it is nice to see that we are avoiding sort of a a worst case scenario when it comes to the market but like you said we also haven't seen a ton of signings i do wonder if with hendrix off the board. If this is going to start moving some of the other also good but less good relievers who are still hanging out there and sort of where the gating factors for each segment of the market are going to end up being but yeah it's a it's a tricky one because if you just showed me the terms i would think oh well. This looks pretty normal. In some cases this is even more than i would expect for that player to get and yet we know that a lot of the top names on the board are still there and they'll get signed somewhere in the next couple of months. When would assume and we've seen flurries of activity late in recent winters. So there's precedent for that and again that was expected but what wasn't really expected was that there would be these prognostications of just a disastrous winter where nothing would happen and that's kind of true to an extent and yet the players who have signed seemed to be getting reasonable deals for the most part so it is sort of odd that both of those things have gone together. Yeah i guess the if we want to be dour we could say that because so few of the of the top guys have signed. There's still the possibility things go horribly wrong. But it seems less likely that that's true now. Given who remains on the market and they're perceived talent within the industry and and perceived value on the team side. So yeah it's just a strange one but we're like a month away from pitchers and catchers supposedly reporting so times Wasting things have to start happening sometime soon. And so hendrix has been really great over the past couple years had been great at times before that kind of inconsistent but has been just a probably the best in baseball lately and so now the wet sox have signed him after adding lintz lynn via trade after signing at meden which was sort of underwhelming. I think in that people were hoping for a bigger name george springer or someone but eating still has his value in in his uses to. And that's coming off last offseason when they ended Dull and kaikal and they put a team together and so now they've continued adding and as i've seen other people point out they've kind of been the only american league team that has done anything this winter and they're direct competitors. Have if anything subtracted. We talked about cleveland in the window in cresco trade. Last time the twins just really have been pretty inactive. They non tendered eddie. Rosario they haven't really added anyone yet and there's still time for us to change but you have to be pretty happy with where the white sox are sitting right now. If you're a white sox fan because really they seemed to have gotten a better and everyone else has stood stealer even gone backward a pit and so if you look at the fan graphs t more projections right now. It goes dodgers padres bets as we mentioned last time at the top of the list and then yankees white sox and there's very little gap between those two at the top of the american league. So you bake a right. Now that the white sox are the team to beat in the american league. I think that if we go further down those rankings you'll see the twins aren't terribly far behind Chicago but i think that it's an encouraging if we want to go out from them sort of real macro agent environment down to the division level the the al central at least the white sox are concerned standing in such contrast with the nfl central. Because this is. I think rightly perceived to be a soft division with the white sox in the twins in some order kind of up at the top and then the rest of of the ring kind of further down wind curve. But i think that while. I wouldn't want them to do this. The white sox could have said look we got lance lynn. This isn't a division with a clear breakaway favorite. We don't really necessarily need to do a whole lot more than that to be competitive. We'll just sort of roll the dice and see where we go and they haven't seemed at least entirely content to do that. And i think this is another good example of it which is interest really not true of the central where it's like that the main with everyone's standing around being like who amongst us worry because that's exactly what in the office so i appreciate that if only because i think our general editorial policy on this park s is that it's nice when teams try to win baseball games so it's good to see them sort of making moves to do that. I will be interested to see if this is really where they stopped. Because while i i like that they did the steel and that bullpen especially if crochet. Healthiest is looking pretty fearsome. I don't necessarily think that their outfield situation should be considered fully sorted even if it seems like maybe they do so maybe there are still stuff to happen and move around but yeah it's gonna be a weird team to watch because they have so many fun players and as we've talked about ad nauseam their booth is so fun and then there's the tony larussa of it all so we're going to watch a lot of white sox baseball next year for gosh this year. Ben wow it's the first time i've made that goofing twenty twenty one. We're gonna watch a lotta white sox baseball this year. And we'll tune in for a variety of reasons. Maybe we will surprise us and he'll be part of the fun we'll see but i guess hendriks replaces alex columbine. He's still out there on the market to. But yeah you've got now hendrix. You have earned bummer. You have evan. Marshall you have crochet hopefully who. I don't know they're committed to him as a reliever now seems like he had maybe some starting potential. But i don't know that they need him in that role necessarily and we don't know exactly what kopech will provide this year coming off injuries in the long layoff and all of that but the back of that bullpen does look pretty intimidating and right now again back to the fan grass. Step up charts. The wet sox have the number two projected bullpen in baseball by wins above replacement. Or actually i guess tied may be with the yankees at number one so yeah. It's a pretty good group back. There and i have margin on the crochet front. I expect that he will this me. Speculating not knowing anything. I would imagine that especially with the injury so late that they will probably use him in relief just as a way to manage his innings. But i don't know what the long-term sort of forecast is for him in terms of the role. I can't imagine that they wouldn't want to try to have him start but the injury so early in his career but late in the year might end up dictating the course for them there but yeah that's that's a fun team fun team it really is. Yeah and i don't know with. Oh get out of kopech or dylan cease and so maybe if those guys struggle and crochet looks good and healthy maybe they could swap them out or something at some point but yeah. I'm really looking forward to watching this team. It's like i think. We compared them to the padres slashed year just because they're constructed similarly in some ways they have a lot of exciting players and they were a team that was breaking a playoff drought and getting back to october and they have both kind of continued to keep pace with each other this winter. Kind of show me a padres. White sox world series. That was so fun. Yeah so it does sound as if the season is gonna start when it's supposed to start and we talked about this recently because the report the athletic that said that am upi head kind of conceded that they were planning to start spring training in the season on time and the players association has been pushing for that of course but there was another report. This week that rob manfred talked to teams on a conference call on monday and told them that they should be preparing for spring training to start on time and to plan on one hundred sixty two game season so not news exactly but kind of confirming those early reports that things were right on schedule and so i wonder if that's the case if that's kind of the kick in the pants that some teams that are sort of sitting on the sidelines and waiting to see how things develop. We'll say all right. Well we actually have to plan on the season starting sometime soon. And so maybe that will break the seal on the free agent market a little bit and hendrix will be the start of a sequence of moves we will see yeah i wonder if those things in conjunction with one another will be sufficient although it seems silly that he couldn't also on that call a d. h. For everyone yeah that too. It's nice that they've decided to start the season but also s. We have talked about recently. They have to decide what the season is gonna look like what the rules are and like. What positions you need to fill just minor little points at so hopefully. That's next on the agenda and yeah. Hopefully we will know sometime soon. What baseball will actually look like. In twenty twenty one and people will be playing and others could things that were used to knowing well before this time in a typical off season. I would note that the lack of clarity on the d. h. does not give the twins and excuse for not having say re engaged the services of nelson cruz. Because you guys know you need a d. h. true yes. I don't know that they necessarily will be the ones to do that. But it seemed like there was some mutual interest in then. We have heard nothing ben. There's been nothing. Maybe nelson cruz is the one dragging his feet because he might wanna know if what the market for his services are and what other suitors are out there so it does take to sign a deal. That's fair but let the man no where he will nap. Yes that would be good to know. I appreciate so much. Nelson cruz is commitment to napping. Because i feel like the discourse around athletes taking care of themselves by sleeping as much as they need to has really shifted in the last little bit and it's not entirely cruises doing but i think that he contributed in an in a meaningful and important way to to that shifting and it's good because how many guys have we seen in the last couple years. We're like oh yeah i realized i had sleep apnea now. I can hit for three hundred. Yes like you should all be sleeping more if the shoe. We all need to sleep. I say this in front of you so that you also tried to internalize that piece of feedback. Although i know you will. I take naps and yet. Napping is like a market inefficiency now. It's like a competitive advantage. It's like All the young progressive teams are like getting Sleep rooms in the clubhouse and all these things worrying about sleep and making sure that players are ready to go and yeah you're right that the discourse about sleeping has changed considerably in the last decade since like ken griffey. Junior clubhouse snap was like now granted. I don't know that that was like a performance enhancing nap so much. Just like i'm forty and this team sucks. I'm tired i you know. I don't know what the motivations there were but definitely napping has kind of come to the fore as like an intentional act more so than i just dozed off. It's like in the past. It's like i don't know famous napper's baseball. It's like connie mack when he is super old like falling asleep on the bench. Like there's definitely a negative perception of naps. Which i guess is understandable because there are times when it's not good to nap but there are times when it's beneficial to nap and athletes are taking advantage of those times more so than they used to. Sometimes you got an app and often the nap. Discourse had like an uncomfortable racial undertone to it became a proxy for other stuff. And any time we can take stuff like that off the board. It's just good on. Its own plus napster. Good for you. I am a terrible napper. So i don't. I don't know what i've been told that it is good for you and does not always result in you having a weird headache from lake force pm so now everyone jordan naps. I i wouldn't say. I'm good at it because they lacked the ability to follow seat quickly. Like i'm not an insomniac. Like i can sleep. If i decide to but it usually takes me a little while to wind down lying there and thinking about things that i did or things that they have to do. Not in an unpleasant way. It's i kind of enjoy that time. When i'm sort of slowly slipping into consciousness but i can't be one of those people who nap for like fifteen minutes and they set the alarm and then they're up in refreshed. Because i just wouldn't be able to fall asleep quickly enough as soon as i know that. There's an alarm that's going to go off some time soon. There's just no way that. I'm going to get to sleep. So i nap. When the afternoon is stretching ahead of me. And i know that. I don't really have to squeeze it into a compressed period. Come to effectively wild for nap. Discourse we naps a you know what they're not gonna let you do in the ballpark next year. Now you know what they will let you do. Seems like everything else you could. You could nap it about perk. We've seen that many many. A fan has fallen asleep in the stance. That's a staple of the fist-bump broadcast. That's how you know that baseball's boring right because people are falling asleep in the stands. I suppose that the the thing they will care about in twenty twenty one. Is that if you nap you nap with your mask on and only in your pud. Yes don't fall asleep on anyone shoulder. Yeah ben. this is ben my awkward attempt to try to segue into baseball's plan for the twenty twenty one season when it comes to fans which seems to be a thing that we're going to experience. Will we feel good about it. I don't know i'm referring to a piece by bill shaken of the los angeles times hugh. I think. Probably back of manfred call with teams reported yesterday as we're recording this that the leaks plan for fans in two thousand twenty one is going to look a lot like the plan for the world series albeit with a great deal of sort of regional variation depending on how stringent requirements are in any given locality. But i think the the piece of news from this that folks had wondered about in that we kind of wondered about was there will be a requirement for those attending in person of having been vaccinated or some sort of a negative cova test door. Temperature check in. It does not seem that any of those things will be required which i'm trying to separate my person in the world really sick of covid wishing that this would end feeling frustrated with people who won't help to contain spread reaction from what is likely actually practicable at the ballpark. And i guess the real answer to this would be. Ideally we would not have fans in the stands until we are all vaccinated but having decided they will. I don't know how useful a negative cova test is. It's not being administered as you're standing in line. Yeah so. I think that it seems very dicey to me. To have fans in the stands. Even though the precedent for this was clearly set by the world series and other sports are just kind of plowing ahead pen. I don't know if you are a person who engages in college football ever but boy. There seemed to be a lot of people at the national championship. That i watched yesterday so i feel like we've just kind of given up. Yeah that's been the plan for a while now to the extent that there is a pled. Mostly there just aren't plans but the except that there's a plan it's like someone who's in a scandal and just tweets through it right and say that they're tweeting through it and it doesn't really help for the most part and sometimes it makes it worse but you just kind of pretend that it will go away at seems to be the pandemic plan for much of the country. It's just hey the vaccines coming. So let's just power through this and Unfortunately we will lose a lot of people along the way but there just doesn't really seem to be the collective wealth to do anything other than that. I just. I've heard listening to many interviews and podcasts over the past year about like the historical precedent for what happened in previous pandemics. And it seems like the pattern is that there's an early reaction there. Some sort of shut down her lockdown and then once that's removed and once the regular course of business is introduced. There's just never really any appetite for reimposing those measures. So it's like you get one chance and then everyone is sick of it and once you with those restrictions everyone just psychologically sorta says okay. Well that's over and it's really hard to get the political will to put these things in place again and and have people abide by them so not that we handled like the first response all that well but once we backed away from that it was just i think our fate was sort of sealed collectively that it was just going to be a waiting game to see when the vaccine would arrive. Fortunately it arrived quite quickly and tear although it's not getting distributed very well but as it relates to baseball like. I guess it's not shocking. That baseball is following the lead of just about everyone else in what shaken said the memo was described as the league's minimum health and safety standards. Which i guess is an apt way to describe it because it's really as the minimum there just doesn't seem to be much to it of though the league acknowledged that local authorities could mandate more restrictive standards. And that of these things could change over the next few months but yeah. I'm just thinking of like the ballpark environment. And having seen like some of the security theater measures that have been imposed as people call it. You know putting in metal detectors that sort of thing that doesn't seem to be all that effective and just leads to really long lines and really hurts the park experience. And so if you also mandated that someone has to go through a metal detector and then also take their temperature and provide proof of vaccination or negative test or something and you have to somehow worn them that they have to bring all the documentation with them to the ballpark. It sounds like a medical problem which may be would tell you that. It just shouldn't be attempted at this point but as you said if you are going to go ahead with it. Maybe it's not surprising that they're just sort of surrendering and hoping for the best and we should say that in this piece. The league has indicated that they anticipate that state and local authorities would require pod seating like we saw in the world series and that there should be social distancing and the fans have to wear a mask at all times except when they're eating or drinking which we saw how that went in arlington. Jeff just impossible to enforce realistically. And i think sam has made made this point in the past before. I think that the real issue is when people are entering or exiting right once. They're in their seat. I would imagine that there is a way to do this. That is reasonable. But you can't teleport them they're right. They have to go through the choke. Points of entering the ballpark and exiting. And they gotta stand in line for that hot dog. That's going to allow them to take their mask off. They go to the bathroom. So that part is going to be tricky. This piece also acknowledged that spring training game which are scheduled to start on february twenty seventh. Not miss selling tickets for those games yet. I think in anticipation of the situation in arizona and florida perhaps continuing to be bad or hopefully not getting worse but potentially getting worse and that it will require pod seating and that they will have to submit and safety plans and mostly that fans will not be permitted to watch morning workouts or other pre game activities. Unless those events are held in the ballpark under the same seeing plan which presumably means that the autograph hounds will have another year where the heck card signed. No that'll drive up prices. I wonder what this has done to the autograph market to just kind of take away. The spent signing opportunities for a year in granted like players can still site on their own time and maybe provide that memorablilia to companies that organized that. But you're still taking a lot of autographs out of the market right because all the balls that people get signed that ballparks at spring training that's not happening signing shows and card shows in these in person events that aren't happening like there must be a lot fewer autographs entering the market over the past year. Then there would be an enormous year. I wonder if that has produced any discernible effect on prices. That would be interesting. Yeah i wonder how that has gone. I mean it seems like it would have to have some effect and like you have guys who in addition to just the the inability of fans to get signatures autographs rather signatures. What are they doing. They're not. They're not submitting a petition. They're not trying to put a ballot initiative on the ballot. My i can call it a signature unless it's legible. Baseball players signatures are really not worthy of that name. But in addition to just fewer opportunities you also had i imagine that there are prospects who they would want to see who didn't come stateside s among the international contingent because of travel restrictions. And because they weren't on the you know they weren't gonna be in the sixty man player pool. Or what have you and so they're probably particular guys who's autographs are just tremendously elusive valuable right now. Like does anyone have a jason dominquez signed card out. There is there. Jason domingas card is one of the highest more salary players in baseball. And he's a yankee. And i don't think he's seen any stateside action yet really been. We should investigate this further. I think i've searched on ebay. And there are jason to been kissed well. There goes my grand theory. I i will say it is. The the behavior has aspects of it that are objectively objection but the consistency and the and the determination of the autograph hounds is really you know. Put to a different purpose. I would call it admirable because like i. It's not as if i am at every spring training game or every folly game but there are definitely people in just a couple of seasons of having frequent those spots who i recognize so i wonder what those folks are doing Yeah i was a kid who went to spring training a couple times. As i've discussed that really an autograph guy and i was never totally comfortable trying to get autographs but whatever attempts. I made i. I was kind of competing with the adult males who had giant binder syphilis things that they were trying to get signed and it was like whichever player they spotted. They had some headshot or card ready to go and it was all very business lake. And i didn't care all that much because again. I wasn't all that focused on getting autographs. But if i had been probably would have been a bummer. That i was competing with people who were doing that professionally. And i'm not saying there's anything wrong with autograph collecting or autograph getting as a hobby. It brings people pleasure and you know as long as you're doing it in a responsible way. I think it's fine and all involved can enjoy those things but yeah i don't know there's something magical about giving it to a kid and making that memory and if you're doing it for profit as opposed to the memory are making a fan or because you're idolizing some player. Well it's not as easy to romanticize that's for sure. Yeah i think it is good to draw a distinction between those who are in pursuit of collection a hobby and do so Respectfully both to the athletes involved and also to their fellow fans and then there are the people who like caused teams to change their policy. Fan access to backfield's and to those folks. I'd like to say chill out. Please fill up. Run it for the rest of us. Boy they're bunch of jason dominguez cards and ebay and there's some autographed jason dominguez cards. That are going for quite hefty sums. Say yeah maybe that does indicate some scarcity in the jason dominquez autographed card market. Because some pretty pricy on here anyway. It is available if you want it but there aren't a whole lot of the out there. Yeah i think that we will just zoom out from this to talk about the the possibility of people being in proximity to one another to do baseball things whether it is whether it is getting autographs or going to the ballpark and we will We will echo. The words of new met francis golan door who during his introductory press conference. Said the only way we're going to stop covid is by carrying about others and not just ourselves and people do people care about others at some point. They're like. I'll be fine. I won't get sick. You probably won't get hit as hard but somebody else will just say. I all keep in mind as we go about our lives Baseball otherwise vaccines to vaccine to help carrying also important seems very important too. So let's hope we all get them sometime soon. That would be really nice. It would be great to go outside again and do the things that we normally do and go to a ballpark and not have to worry about what the health and safety standards are at least when it comes to covid. I hope that that will happen. At some point this season. And you know temperature checks which I have undergone entering various places. Like i know that they may or may not be super reliable. And also like if you're asymptomatic you could be carrying it and you could be capable of spreading it to someone without triggering. The temperature test so far from perfect. I don't know that. There's a perfect way to philip ballpark with people and eradicate the risk. So let's hope that sometime soon. We get to the point where that risk is removed. That would be really nice not to have to talk about co protocols anymore. I would be very happy not to have to do that. And is One other thing. I wanted to follow up on. We talked not long ago about another mystery. Not just why the free agent market is behaving as it is but why. Mlb doesn't seem to have interest in expansion and that's related of course to attendance because we theorized that one would think that will be owners would be interested in expansion because they're getting less revenue than usual games were cancelled. They're playing games without fans or with fewer fans and so when we think that they would be incentivized to expand because when you expand new franchises come in they have to pay fees to the other teams to gain their way into the league and this has been a way that mlb owners have profited before rebounded from hard times before hard times of their own making namely collusion. That was sort of their way out of it. And so it seems like circumstances are set up for them to want to do that again. On top of the fact that it's pretty much time for expansion anyway in that it's been longer since the last round of expansion than at any point since expansion started and it seems like population has increased in their markets out there and it's viable and maybe it would even help from a competitive or aesthetic standpoint so all sorts of reasons why it seems like there should be interest and yet it was reported that there wasn't interested in that evidently one of the reasons why dave dombrowski chose to join the phillies eventually is that he heard from multiple sources that there just wasn't going to be expansion anytime soon and so we were trying to puzzle out why that might be and and i think he mentioned well maybe some local markets might not be in a position to give teams. The sweetheart deals in the ballpark funding. And all of that that they've become accustomed to but we were sort of skeptical about the ideas that it'll be owners would act in any selfless way. i'd say. Oh well the the country just ready for this and we should not be devoting our resources to baseball. We should let those local municipalities to vote those resources to health education funding yet. That's not why but there was an article that can rosenthal wrote this week exploring this issue because he went over the same reasons why we mentioned that will be in theory should be interested in expansion and so it sounds like he comes up with three reasons here and one of them seems like the primary reason so there's questions about the as in the rays of course still some teams that are sort of unsettled and so maybe they wanna figure out the weakest links from financial standpoint and shore up their situations before they expand. We noted that. Although i think we also mentioned that typically owners like to have the option of extending out there so that they can dangle that over the heads of local politicians. Let's say to get a better deal. So that's one reason that you know there's still some weaknesses that they could address about the current markets and then also the reluctance to lose young talent. There would have to be an expansion draft and of course teams really value young cost-controlled talented these days. And they're going to be fewer minor leaguers and all of those reasons swiped teams would be reluctant to part with those players but it seems like according to ken reporting the main reason might be the owners reluctance to divide the pie so it sounds as if yes there would be expansion fees and. Ken says maybe it would be something. Like a billion dollars per franchise or something and so if you added two teams brought the total up to thirty two. Then there'd be a lump sum of two billion dollars added into the coffers and that would be distributed across clubs and so it'd be something like sixty seven million per team which is not an insubstantial amount however after that they would all individually lose money because the revenue the central revenue would be split thirty two ways instead of thirty and so it. It sounds like that's not worth it to a lot of owner so ken writes the league. Originally projected slightly more than two point. Four billion dollars in central revenue in two thousand twenty or about eighty million per club with thirty two teams. That number would reduce to about seventy five million dollars per club. The reduction would grow as central revenue. Grows and central revenue has grown faster than many of the league's other streams in addition clubs are valued based on recurring annual revenues. I know it's super exciting when we talk about clubs why they're because of recurring annual revenues. The hypothetical sixty seven million dollars teams would receive from expansion would be a one time. Payment that is taxed the loss of recurring annual revenue. Meanwhile would depress the value of the club and that loss would be permanent once. The league commits to additional clubs. The only way to turn back would be through contraction and mlb has never taken that step so can is pointing out that the central revenue has grown really fast and teams are reluctant to take permanent. Hit in that area. And so i think that helps explain. Maybe some of the behavior of teams that we've talked about some of the anticompetitive behaviour. Perhaps in that one of the reasons why we always say teams may be choosing not to get better or to get worse or to prioritize payroll. Yes it's because in the short term of the pandemic and revenue shortfalls but in the larger term. It's because it seems like all the central revenue makes it possible for teams to be profitable and to continue to operate without necessarily investing a whole lot in the team and without winning even and so. I think this just goes to show that. That's a really big driving force in modern. Mlb of the way that teams behave. And maybe it's an obstacle to expansion two because team are really putting an emphasis on that shared central revenue which keeps growing and so that might make them decide not to invest or to trade a franchise player because they know that they can count on a certain amount of money coming in every year and that might also prevent them from expanding to thirty two teams. I just feel like it's a little given all of the conversations that we've been forced to have around ownership behave. You're just in general but in the last year in particular it is a little on the nose for their finances to be standing in the way quite literally of them growing the game in a meaningful way. I i don't necessarily think there are good reasons to proceed slowly with expansion. Although i think that bringing baseball to new audiences is probably just always a net positive over the long run. But i appreciate the need to do these things sort of methodically. And you want to make sure that you're putting franchises in places that they can succeed where there's real market value and i get all of that stuff but at some point we really need to think long and hard about the incentive structure that we have set up in baseball and by we. I mean the owners have set up in baseball right. We always talk about the incentive structures and baseball as if they were handed down right like moses came with the bargaining agreement or something which is not what happened. It's negotiated document and quite often. The last couple turns ownership has gotten what they wanted and so. I think that this is not an original thought is certainly not the first time i have voice this on this podcast and i imagine that we'll get away from talking about it for too terribly long but we just have some really warped incentives in the game and the one that doesn't seem to always be pushing through is the incentive to win a world series and if the sincere argument of ownership was we have a lot of talented guys on our club. And we don't wanna give any of them up in an expansion draft because we wanna win. You know the next five world series. I'd be more sympathetic to that argument. But the idea that. The owners of teams that accrue tremendous value in the course of their ownership. And you know bring in gate revenue and have you know. Tv deals and facilitate all sorts of real estate business. That has nothing to do with baseball within. Look around and say well you know. We'll get a slightly smaller cut of the central pie. If there's another owner here is just a bummer yet. Bummer ben. I'm i don. I wanna talk about fewer bombers me to that would be nice. Yeah and expansion. That's not something that we have really dealt with certainly during our time covering the game mount so it'd be fun to talk about. I think we've talked a bit on the podcast in the past about how it would work and how you would structure and expansion draft today but you know i was what eleven or something when the diamondbacks and the ray is played their first seasons and i was not paying attention to the sport in the way that i do now and there be so many things to talk about and how it work and where would their players come from and what effect would it have on the league run-scoring environment just something new because hasn't happened for more than two decades now so i hope that we will get to talk about this at some point and get into the mechanics of it and the effects of it but it sounds like that won't be anytime soon bomber. Yes in some sense like having even more players would overwhelm me in a way like i. I don't know how people who follow multiple sports and multiple sports with even more teams than there are in. Mlb you're one of those people. I don't know how you keep other players in your heads. It's like when we talked to eric. Long and hagen. I'm always amazed that he knows like not only all the major leaguers but like hundreds or thousands of amateur players and players in the minors. It's just like how do you have the brain space to know something about all of these people and pay attention to them. And so if you're someone who pays close attention to baseball but also basketball or hockey or football football there's so many players i even remember all the players when team with other teams. It's just a lot of people in a lot of mental bandwith. So i'm impressed and i'm mad at napping that too so i can't even i don't know my brain has always worked that way it files it that way. My mom likes to leak name. My mom likes to play like what is it. Six degrees of kevin bacon. She likes to play that game with me. Except she'll pick two other people both of whom have been endless stuff than kevin bacon and be like connect these through their. You know their imdb. And i m my brain's else stuff in that order. I guess. I don't know it's telling you man i meant to mention also i. I guess this is not actually news yet but it sounds like it will be news sometime soon. Fernando tatis junior extension seems like it's in the offing there were reports that they were really talking about an extension there. Even some terms floated than there was a report that they hadn't yet begun negotiations. Then there was another report. I think from the athletic that aj prowler had visited tease in the dominican republic. And i think jeff passan reported that they met but that no formal offer has been made but it certainly sounds as if things are moving toward an extension probably prior to opening day and so it may be that we will see totti's locked up long-term with padres and maybe when door with the mets 'cause there's momentum toward that to an when obviously is with a new team. Totti's is with his Original team or the team. He's been with for his whole major league career. And that would just be a a nice refreshing change. I think to the conversation. We were having about lender last week about pets and about all these good players get traded by good teams the padres have been at the forefront of being aggressive the season and adding to their team and in general like extensions maybe aren't quite as exciting as signings or trades because it's just hey that guy who's there he is still going to be. There is a change. It's not an addition. But when it's a player like fernando tatis it would be extremely exciting for padres fans to have some certainty that going to be watching him for his whole career or for at least a huge chunk of his career and off his prime and so again like player movement is inevitable and the player choosing to move because of their free agent. Got a better deal somewhere else. Fine but if it's a player who seems like he has the potential to be really a legendary figure in that franchise history. It's nice if they can stay like. I think it's possible to both support players rights and ability to move and also think that it's sort of nice when they don't move when they decide that it's advantageous for them to stick in a certain spot in the team think so too and fans get to bond with them over a period of decades. I think that's kind of the the ultimate happy outcome if that works out for all involved in so. I hope that sometime soon. For the sake of padres fence we will be reading about an official extension. Yeah i think that is teams. Give good players a fair deal. It's ideal if they stick around forever because it really does mean something we've talked about this to be able to root for a guy for The course of his career and feel like he's your guy and you know by jersey and feel confident that you are going to get to wear that until he's in his decline phase in your star inferno one right so i think that that's a release special relationship that does not get prioritized in the modern game just by virtue of how teams allocate money and and. What have you so i agree. I think it would be terrific if they could figure something out. I can't remember if it was counter. Jeff who noted this. But i think it is important for folks to keep in mind as we're thinking through. What is likely here. He is due to be a free agent. Currently in twenty twenty-five he is twenty two. His birthday was earlier this month. Happy birthday fernando to so the the length of the deal is gonna be assuming it happens is going to be interesting because if he does something that is in the ten year range he's hitting the market again. It's sort of an awkward age to be a free agent reentering the market now. It could be that the deal. He has offered from san diego so lucrative. That he doesn't care about that so that possiblity certainly exists but it also wouldn't be surprising to see him go on a deal that buys out his arbitration years. I think he's archaeological next season. And then some number of years of his free agency and then allows him to test the market again and that wouldn't necessarily undermine our desire to see him. Be a padre forever. There's a lot of precedent for players doing this. And then they signed a new contract with with the team but it does give them some some wiggle room. If they decide that they can get a better contract on the market or if the the fortunes of the team change and they're keen to be on a contender. Or what have you. So it'll be interesting to see kind of how they get. This worked out. I think that he's a very logical extension candidate who wouldn't want him around For the long term. So i i understand why. The sort of started to gain momentum even before we got reports that aj had gone down to the diarra talking to him or whatever but it would be great if he could be a lifelong padre. We don't see enough of those and it's nice when star players like that commit to a city and then the city and the team the team not the city. I don't mean to take a dig at anaheim but you know it's it's nice when the team is like and we seem like we're going to win a bunch of games because then it's good for the player the team's going to be good. You're confident you're going to see him in october. Which is really just my way of saying. Put a five hundred baseball team around. Mike trout already. But really. that's how you get to be like. Tony gwynn is mr padre. He's mr patrick. Because he's a great player. But he's also mr padre because he was a career padres player. Was there for twenty years. And so dave. Winfield is not mr padre because he left and played for other teams even though he was great for the patriots and the patriots. Just haven't had a whole lot of star players in their history and so it would be nice for their sake. If now they do have them they were able to keep some of them. And also it's nice just to have to feel like the window is closing or like there's an end date for contention with this current core like obviously ted teases young in. He's pretty far from free agency regardless but still like uncertain teams when young good players. Come up you. Just sorta start the clock rate and you start counting the service time. And here's when this is going to be a free agent and we know we're probably not gonna keep it like if you're a raise fan or something. You know with certain exceptions for the most part when they develop good players. You know they're going to go. They're gonna go. The way of blake snell some point and so you start counting the years and projecting okay. We need to get good. We need to win a world series in the next x years or else it's not going to happen and we're going to have to rebuild and start all over again and so if years the patriots and you prove that we can develop a great players like totti s and then we can keep them. We can have them. We don't have to let them go. Sign with the dodgers or the yankees or someone. that's just ideal really and it does seem as if they're trying to build a perennial contender here. That can compete with the perennial contender in la. And one way to do that would be to make sure that you can keep your star players so that would be nice agreed. I also meant to mention. Just when we were talking about the central revenue. Because this comes into play with all major contracts that might be signed including the totti's extension one big component. The majority of that central revenue is the national network. Tv contracts. And i wanted to ask if you could sort of summarize what crack edwards wrote this week about the news on that front because there was some news that the new deal between espn and mlb is going to be smaller than the last one. And i think that was greeted with some concern to rate because we keep seeing these. Tv contracts go up and up. And i think people have feared. When is this bubble. Going to burst because of cord cutters or because there isn't as much of a national audience for mlb anymore. And so i. I think maybe in some sectors it was seen as a sign of bad things to come that this was not just escalating forever and ever but that this rights deal will be smaller than the previous one. I think it's a three point. Eight five billion dollars for the next seven years which at least on the surface sound smaller than the five point. Six billion dollars over eight years. That was the previous agreement but craig kind of reassured me and As he often does he took a closer look and a more rigorous look at the finances and he kinda concluded that it doesn't actually seem to be anything to worry about. I think that craig did a nice job with us. And i think the sort of top line to keep in mind is that the steel with the spn for one thing includes fewer games. Which in theory could be packaged and sold to another network. So it isn't as if it's a a lower. It's a smaller for the same number of games. There has been some attrition there in terms of how many they're going to broadcast. And you know. Craig is also quick to note that some of the other deals that they have signed recently like their deal with fox and their deal. Tbs have had significant increases in terms of the revenue. That's associated with them. So i think that people sort of reflexively worrying about this is understandable because we are all kind of bracing for the tv bubble to burst when it comes to baseball. But i don't know that this is necessarily a superstrong indicator that that has arrived so much as it just reflects a different broadcasting. Reality was espn. That i think is is whether -able booth in the immediate term and then especially when you consider some of the other increases that they have coming So don't panic yet. No yes if you're very concerned about how much money will be owners will be making from. Tv contracts things are still looking. Okay don't lose any sleep over this. 'cause yeah there other deals with tps fox and other outlets that are increasing and so when you put it all together it seems like the revenue from this source is still going to be going up for the foreseeable future and you know a decade from now who knows maybe at that point no one will have cable anymore in the bottom. We'll find out of office but it doesn't seem like that will be happening anytime soon. And i guess it's not ideal that there will be fewer dame's on a big platform like yes piano if you want baseball to reach a wider audience. Maybe those midweek games that the network just doesn't really have interest in anymore like we talk a lot about how baseball's kind of local game and local ratings are really strong and so it doesn't really make sense to compare its national ratings to other sports because of the way that people follow teams but it gets still. Ideally you would want to have people pay attention to the league as a whole and not just tune out when their team is not playing or is not out of it. And so i wouldn't want there to be less presence for baseball games. That are not you know playoff series or the world series or whatever and by the way this whole analysis is just separate from the fact that there may be more playoff games answer that will lead to more revenue which we are not pleased about from a competitive standpoint but from a revenue standpoint. That's pretty important to so we will see whether those games that are sort of less appealing to the networks. Do get sold somewhere so that they are on tv and that is maybe an opportunity for mlb to. I don't know try to branch out. I mean i know that. They've experimented with like facebook games. And from what. I've seen the reaction to the quality of those broadcasts has not been great. But i don't know maybe they do. What other weeks have done. Maybe they start putting games on twitch or who knows where nickelodeon ben nickelodeon why not. I'm goofing but i'm kinda not like. I think one of the ways that that the league might go about trying to combat both the issue of losing some of its national television stuff and the future reality of court cutting as we get creative was streaming platforms and other networks that have streaming platforms and try to expose a new audience to your product and grow the game like spongebob explained. Baseball's two kids. I know that the characters themselves were not part of the broadcast in that way and we would need to think very carefully about the nickelodeon ambassadors would be from baseball. Although i think there are a number of very fun charming current players who could do the job great. Yeah and we grew up as nickelodeon kids. I saw your tweet the other day about your your favorite nickelodeon shows put a. Are you afraid of the dark number. Two i was. I was afraid at the park was too afraid to watch that show regularly but i agree with your other choices you correctly had dug in the top spot. I think that what this shows is that. I like the idea of taking care of people and being a little bit creepy and like not in a not in like a yankee guy kinda way but in lake an x. Files kind of way. I will also say that my grandfather let my sister. And i watched the x. files with him and by let us watch he was babysitting and he was like i m watching this and your here so i love you grandpa. But that was a very suspect choice and part of his justification when this was revealed to my dad and my stepmom was well megan legs. Are you afraid of the dark. It's basically the same. They are not they are. There's one is on nickelodeon and the others. Yeah i watch six files. When i was older and ready for it and i was still sometimes kinda creeped out by it but you stop to all that though. I don't know i can only five i liked. I'm just saying this. This was at at the time might top five. I don't think these are necessarily the best five shows. I think that other people should like those shows. They like as i noted on twitter. Some of the shows that people are listening are nachos that i enjoyed as or experience as a child but experienced as a teenager when my brother who is significantly younger than i am was himself watching nickelodeon so that was a fun. Thing to grapple with randomly on the weekends but mostly people should like the shows. They like. it's like. I don't know what the tv equivalent of eating a dolphin is. But just don't do that like whatever you like and it's fine. We don't all have to the same stuff rabbit. Yes okay anything you want to touch on before we close very briefly and i hope that this is a strange way to enter. This conversation put briefly bent. I was noticing some of the reaction both in our podcast. Facebook group and on twitter the reaction to the passing of tommy lasorda. And the way that we grapple with the fullness of a person's life one they have passed particularly wanted is a life that includes a lot of highs but also darkness that needs to be confronted. Honestly you know. I do not have an emotional attachment either to that era of dodgers baseball or to him as a person. Because you know i was like let's see i was ten. I think when he retired. So i was a kid and i watched an american league team and i like vaguely knew who he was. Maybe but like. He was not a figure in my baseball experience that he was for a lot of people. He was clearly dear to many. He also really refused to publicly. Acknowledge both that. His son who passed away from aids related. Pneumonia was gay and had passed away from an aids related disease and that did a lot of damage to many people. He did that at a time. One i think having a an honest reckoning with his son's life and death and who he was in both would have been really meaningful to a lotta people and their understanding of both aids and the impact. It was having on the gay community. And i understand wanting to have an appreciation for the good moments that a public figure has brought to your life but i think that you know there are very few opportunities to deal with and sort of wrestle with the complex legacies of public people and for better or worse when they passes one of those moments and so i. Don't you know. I'm not gonna tell people how to feel about this. But i saw some consternation on the part of folks that he was being start of celebrated an complicated way and also consternation at that consternation. And i think that we owe it to ourselves and to the people we know and love who are impacted by disease injustice. What have you to reckon with things honestly so that we can make them better and it reminded me of some of the kind of feedback that we have gotten about this podcast in the last couple of months. Granted to wildly different things in terms of their scale. But i think there has been some consternation on the part of some of our listeners that we have decided to talk about the behavior of ownership about the way that the league has responded for good and ill two calls for social justice the way that we talk about labor dynamics the corona virus and. I think that. I don't want to put anyone on the spot or call anyone out but i just wanted to take a second to sort of explain our thinking. Which is that from the time. I was a listener of this podcasts. And now my understanding of it's sort of mission. Broadly is to explain the fullness of the game and that stuff is part of baseball. I wish that the corona virus were not a part of baseball. I wish that the leagues and the sports history when it comes to racism and racial justice were different but it is the history it has and i think that we would be abdicating important responsibility if we didn't engage with that stuff. And i think that engaging with the fullness of the game also means acknowledging statistical mysteries that we find engaging and silliness and like. I was talking to you off line about this. I literally conducted an investigation into win archie. Bradley pooped himself. Yes he did so my commitment to nonsense well-documented not to mention your previous investigation. Which i think was prompted by a podcast conversation about whether adam lind had indeed past guests while he was at the plate or whether it was Just some other substance that was billowing around him so yeah you have a history not to minimize the seriousness of these inquiries. Said that the rigor that you brought to those investigations. But yeah and i think that that as podcast both when i have been a part of it and when i haven't been that we love whimsey and staff and i think that you know the way that i think about it is when the when the league does a bad job with a domestic violence investigation that bums me out as a fan of baseball also bums me out. As like a woman who's asked to spend money on their product. And i think that we owe it to whatever group of people is being sort of having their fandom dinged or and because of some other action of the league to talk about it and to acknowledge where they fit in the game and how we might inspire the game to do better and i think all of that is really important to understanding where baseball is and i don't think either of us would would claim that we have done that perfectly over the last year and i think there are times when we've we've both acknowledged like we should have really dug in on some of these issues in much greater depth much sooner but we have to meet the game where it is and sometimes where. It isn't very pretty but still the baseball we have. And it's part of it and we need to be honest about it so that we can appreciate the highs and also hope to change some of the stuff that that holds back players and fans and folks who work in the game from enjoying those houses as much or as well as they ought to so able to. So i don't know. I just felt like there was enough enough chatter about building that we wanted to kind of. Take a second to talk about it. 'cause we think about this there i think plenty of people who enjoy the direction of the podcast and have written into say nice things. It's like the last episode that we did with our philosopher guests talking about the hall of fame a few people wrote in to say it was one of their favorite episodes. Ever someone else said it was one of their least favorite episodes ever. So you're going to have a range of and we don't expect to please everyone the same way and we welcome the feedback. It's offered and you know sort of A friendlier or constructive way as often as so there was Comments on that episode at fan graphs and someone wrote. There's a lot of bad things in baseball. And there's a lot better than the world but baseball ineffectively. Wild earn escape for many of us from those day to day concerns. I'm all for using the platform to inform and educate but lately. The podcast has been more about baseball's role in society than an interesting look at the statistical side of baseball in terms of the players. Who play the game and that person went on to say you know if that's what we want wanna do. That are productive and he understands but it's maybe not their preference and that is understandable. I i'd say that it's not inaccurate to say. I think that the podcast has been a bit different over the past year than it was in any previous year. I think that's probably less because we set out to say oh. We have to dramatically. Change the way we do this podcast than it is that the world was different in the last year and baseball was a lot different in the last year for one thing. There is just a lot less baseball. There were many months when there was not baseball being played when they're normally would be and we were still doing a baseball podcast. So what are you gonna talk about. You can't really talk about the statistical side of the game in the players who were playing the game when no one is playing the came in there no stats. So i think some of it was by necessity and some of it was just that where people in the world and we're affected by things that are going on in the world and those things are affecting baseball and so when a lot of the biggest stories about baseball are related to the pandemic order to us or racial justice. And you have players speaking out on these things. And they're affecting how and whether the games are being played literally at times when teams opted not to play as a former protest. I feel like it would be almost impossible to do a baseball podcast. Without talking about those things that we would be doing a disservice to our audience or or to us or just. I don't know what the alternative would be at at times when there's just no actual action going on and there are times when those things should probably take precedence over that action anyway even if it were happening because you can do both like we do a lot of episodes we do a lot of podcasting so we have a lot of time to fill and we have time to touch on a lot of different topics and i think we have continued to do a lot of the sort of stuff that we've always done but we have adjusted and done some different things as the world. I think has dictated that we do those things and like you. I kind of think of it as the spirit of inquiry it's like the original definition of sabermetrics was the search for objective knowledge about baseball and it was not explicitly statistical knowledge about baseball it tended to take that form and that what sabermetrics has been identified with but it's not solely that it can be all sorts of things we want to learn about the him and i think the role of baseball in society is often thought provoking in really interesting and obviously touches on the game itself. And i don't think the podcast is explicitly devoted to talking about say the intersection of sports and politics or society. In the way that some other fine podcasts are the infinite inning or or three swings or others but i think we certainly have to want to touch on those things from time to time and i don't know that we could really have an educated or informed or informative conversation about baseball without getting into all those things and it's never really been a podcast about Who should you start in your fantasy league or guy's backup is low and he's a candidate to bounce back or whatever like will touch on those things of course if you're in the market for that that's fine and there are plenty of podcasts. That do that well. But i think that's never been our our sole or primary interest. So i've always been really interested in not just who's gonna make the playoffs or who's going to win the pennant. But why do we care so much about who makes the playoffs. Who wins the pennant. This game history matter so much to us and why does it work the way it does. What role does it play in people's lives. Why do we get so attached to it. What does it all mean man. So i sort of liked to explore people's relationships to baseball as well as the box scores in the play by play. Believe me we would prefer to be watching packed. Ballparks and not worrying about health and safety standards pandemic is definitely not our preferred topic. We would for that to cease to be a problem and something that affects the sport on a fundamental level. This is entertainment. It should be a distraction sometimes and it should be fun. Baseball brings pleasure to a lot of our lives. But what we talk about from day to day depends. I think a lot on what the world looks. I can what baseball looks like because Baseball podcast in. It's going to reflect those things just as baseball reflects society and the state of the world. Yeah i think that we wanted to do the best. We can to keep people engaged to be edifying to be comforting where it's appropriate to make people laugh and to make people think about stuff and like you said we're not meaning to say that we are above criticism or feedback. But simply that we are. We are trying to do this pot. In a way that is consistent with our understanding of you know what being a thoughtful inquisitive person who likes baseball means and that means not shying away from stuff that makes us sometimes uncomfortable and that we wish were different. But we're going to kinda soldier on and hope that we feel like we're striking the right balance between those things and we will be cillian serious is as is appropriate to the moment and yeah we appreciate everyone bearing with us and hope that this is. I don't know clarifying. Or what have you for folks so we still have a lot of fun doing the show. I hope people have fun listening most of the time and yet that we are silly and we do strange hypotheticals and all the other things that were known for. I think we can do all of it. It should be kind of a patchwork of all these things. That's kind of what the title of the show comes from. It's like you never know what you're going to get one episode to the next. It's pretty wild on the whole and that turned out to be a fitting title for the show. And and just lastly as you were saying about the sorta like you. Because we're roughly the same age i i feel like i've kind of been playing catch up on lasorda for most of my life. Because i sorta missed the peak lasorda period to like. He stepped down as manager. The dodgers when i was nine or whatever and so you come along later and it's like why was he so famous like that. Baseball figures aren't famous today. typically like. He's a national figure. He's appearing on shows. And sitcoms like everyone do address. He's friends with all sorts of celebrities. That's like how did this happen. And that was like even before he was the manager of the dodgers for a couple of decades and won a couple world series like as detailed in his piece at grass. Which i'll link to like. He was a celebrity even before that like when he was coach is barely a big leaguer to as a player. Really add marginal major league which makes it all the more amazing that he was so well known even before he became a manager. Then you get to know why while he was so quotable and he was a character in some ways. And you get to. You know you hear the the dave kingman rant and you read about the kurkova kwa rant and of these things and you say okay. I get it. Not only was he with this organization for decades and decades and decades and mental lot dodgers fans as jay wrote in his. Oh bit no manager ever served. As the face of a franchise to a greater degree than tommy lasorda but also he was This person who stood out as a personality. And that's what he's known for. He's not really celebrated as tactician when you think of casey stengel. You think platooning when you think of paul richards you think the waxahachie swapped when you think of earl weaver. You think the three run homer when you think tony larussa. For that matter. He'd think of the one inning closer and lougee and some of those guys characters to but they also had distinctive tactics whereas with lasorda. It seems like his strength was just as a master motivator who could get the best out of a lot of players and he was a former pitcher too which is sort of unusual for a successful manager and so he wasn't like the ark typical x catcher who studied the inside game but in learning about that and lasorda's life and career and legacy as a baseball person. I also wanna learn about what he was like as a person in ways that were not directly related to baseball and so yes i've learnt along with all of his baseball cop schmitz. I've learned about his relationship with his son and what he said and didn't say and other incidents later in his life and i think it's important to know all of those things that you can't release some up a a ninety something year old who lived a life like that with necessarily one incident good or bad but it's part of the complete picture of the person and you probably shouldn't neglect either aspect of it. Yeah i think that you know if you read peter richmond sort of definitive profile of him and sort of snapshot of this moment. You know it is clear that it is it was not. It's not as if that was a relationship without love between her and his son but it was one that also featured some important unnoticeable and notable rather failings and. I don't think that you know one of those failings refusing to publicly acknowledge the fullness of one person's life to then when the one doing that feeling has passed not acknowledged the fullness of their life is sort of compounding the problem so i think especially given his platform as jay wrote. It's hard to know exactly. What that acknowledgement. How significant that not would have been and how it might have progressed the discourse but it's hard to imagine it wouldn't have mattered and it wouldn't have been meaningful and so we have to talk about all of it and that doesn't take away. The love that they did have for one another or the richness of his baseball career or his family. Life by this is part of it too and it relates to baseball more directly in the sense that he was also glenn beck's manager and there is a relationship there and so you know something that applies both on and off the field or insider outside of the clubhouse so j. covered all of that in his piece which i will link to. If you want to a lengthy and complete account of the life and times of tommy lasorda. but let's hope that his passing is not the continuation of the trend of passing of hall of famers. We saw last year which was a record number and no one wants that to continue agreed. All right well we appreciate everyone's indulgent. Yes indeed. I know it's a bit navel-gazing to talk about the podcast on the podcast. If you're someone who listens to it and perhaps supports it and has been listening to it for a long time then. Obviously we want you to offer your opinions and have some input and know what we're thinking about it. So the responses we get from. Our listeners is a big part of why we do this. We appreciate everyone's thoughts. Okay that will do it for today. Thanks as always for listening. You can support effectively wild on patriotic by going to patriot dot com slash effectively wild. The following five listeners have already signed up and pledge some some of the amount of upkeep podcast going and get themselves access to some perks john yearly m rob fifty four michael melia michael hunter and sam rickard. Thanks to all of you. You can rape review and subscribed to effectively wild on itunes and spotify and other podcasts platforms. You can join our facebook group at facebook dot com slash group slash effectively. Wild you can send us your questions and comments via email at podcast thank graphs dot com or via the patriot. Gusting system if you are a supporter. Thank you to dylan higgins for his editing assistance and we will be back with another episode a little later this week off to you then Hitter no edged cross a group own.

baseball white sox hendrix liam hendriks padres mlb ben lindberg houria Stroman kevin guzman nelson cruz greg holland james mcken Charlie morton drew pomeranz jason dominquez
Effectively Wild Episode 1642: Supply and Pent-Up Demand

Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast

1:21:58 hr | 8 months ago

Effectively Wild Episode 1642: Supply and Pent-Up Demand

"Along a king say hello and welcome to episode sixteen forty two effectively wildly baseball podcast from fan graphs presented by our patriot supporters. I am ben. Lindberg of the wringer joined by meg rally of graphs who just finished her chat with grass readers. And now we'll be chatting with be hello mic so i wanted to express my sympathy for blue jays fans for a second before we get to emails and the stat last because as fans and the bluejays are having a pretty tantalizing offseason but also an agonizing offseason like the ratio of rumors to done deals has to be higher for the blue jays than any other team that i was thinking of this wednesday because the blue jays signed their president and ceo mark shapiro to a five year extension. And they're reasons to be pleased about that. I'm sure but that's not really the move. That blue jays fans have been wanting and waiting and hoping for the team to make they want some big star free agent. And the jay's got the offseason started when they resigned robbie ray to a one year deal but that's it that is the only major league move they've made so far and of course there's plenty of time for them to make a major move or to still because as we were saying yesterday there many attractive free agents still unsigned but bluejays came into this winter with pretty high expectations which they set themselves like back in november ross atkins their. Gm said much like last year when we were active and to categorize it as aggressive is relatively fair. We will do that again this year and continued doing it until we are in a position where we're contending year in and year out and then in december shapiro reaffirmed that and he said there's uncertainty in the budget but not as it pertains to major-league payroll. He said whether it's four very good players or two elite players quote. I'm a hundred percent confident. We will get better so they probably still well but the clock is ticking. And i don't know if you've noticed but the blue jays have been connected to just about every player who has signed or traded and every player. Who is not yet signed. But we'll be at some point. I was just browsing the. Mlb trade rumors bluejays tag and you have to click like more posts like ten times to get to the beginning of the obvious and even though they haven't really done anything so just kinda running down the list that. I hope i'm not missing anything here. But the bluejays have been rumored to be talking to the cubs about a kris bryant trade. They've been one of the most. Active teams in expressing interest in george springer. That's been going on for eight years now and it's been like six or seven weeks since they were reported to have quote progressed beyond just talking with finger. Whatever that means. Generally i did it. I didn't expect this time. Maybe it means they made some sort of offer say connected to dj with mayhew supposedly. They're super interested in him. They've been connected to trevor. Bauer whom they met with were said to be meeting with what else they were. Reportedly the runner up in the francisco endure sweepstakes so supposedly they made a ceiling player offered deal but it was players who were on the whole less major league ready than the players the mets offered and so they didn't get endore what else they were interested in hendrix whom we talked about yesterday signed with the white sox hendrix is a former j. and he lives near the team's training camp in florida still so just last week. It was reported that he visited their complex which seemed like it might be the prelude to a deal but it wasn't as it turned out they made an offer to sugano the great japanese starter. Who decided to stay in japan. They also made an offer to hassan. Kim before san diego signed him and supposedly they made him a five year offer so they were really neck and neck in the running for both of those players with the padres they also reportedly offered kevin gassman forty million dollars ish the oath before he accepted san francisco's qualifying offer. So they've been in everyone and if you're a boot as fan you must have just been getting like alerts said push notifications system. i'll offseason. it's like right it's happening. We're getting this guy and then time after time after time they've come in second or third or just missed out on those players and so yellow mayhew still out there and bauer springer's still out there and i would guess that they would get at least one of those guys but thus far it's been sort of a lucy charlie brown football situation for them. Yeah it's shocking if only because there hasn't been that much activity and so them to be you know so often left at the altar is terrible. I'm not gonna further that but for them to so often lose out and seemingly by just a smidge is surprising because it doesn't seem like there's been that much to lose out on. I think that ultimately a team that is motivated to improve through free agency is likely to get what it wants because it can spent it can just spend and they seem committed to doing that and there are still as you've noted a number of very good free agents on the market who fit roster needs on their part yet does have to be extremely frustrating for fans and for members of the bluejays front office. Who i'm sure sitting there going. We're trying to do the thing that everyone says we should be doing. We're trying to do it. Just let us pray. Yeah like it has to be encouraging that they are trying to do this or at least that it's reported that they are because there have been previous winters when they weren't and they weren't really may be in the position to make that big push and then last winter they got hunching view and it seemed like they would continue to do that. They're trying it really. Seems like they're trying but it takes more than just the team being willing to sign a player being interested in player it also takes out getting all the other teams that are trying to sign trade for that player. Takes convincing that player to come to your team so easier said than done even if you are actually trying to do it. So i don't know for the sake of bluejays fans. I hope that they get one of their targets. At least just 'cause that's an exciting young team and they've got a lot of players who were really fun to watch and obviously it's a competitive division and they need to keep pace or catch up with those other teams so yeah hopefully one of these days. One of these dominoes that false will be going to the blue jays. Well and i think also takes free agents being willing not only to come to your team but to come to your team right now and i think that when much of the market is still pretty tepid and frozen. It's it's unsurprising that that things would take a little. While even for the teams that are keen to be active because fewer free agent. And you're sitting there with your your agent an agent agent camera And you're trying to sort out where you're going to sign. You wanna have a complete sense of what your options are. And i imagine that that isn't sort of fully realized for a lot of guys right now because the market has been so slow. So i i hope that their patients is rewarded. Because you said that is a that is a good fun team. And i think that there are a lot of pieces that are really compelling and we've said for a long time that you know what you what you need around that young core are some some good role players and a couple more marquee stars and it feels like they're pretty close to being in a position to you know really make a make a statement even if they have to play in buffalo yen which seems likely. Maybe that's the problem. I think that might be part of the problem. Yeah there are various obstacles. I think all else being equal it is probably a little bit harder for the blue jays to land free agent and some of it might be that shapiro and atkins are somewhat rigid in their valuations. They decide what they want to pay for a player and they won't budge beyond that and sometimes to get the guy on the open market you do have to pay a premium. Maybe more than your model suggests he's worth that's the winner's curse rate. That's how free agency works. It's like andrew freedman has said if you're always rational about every free agent you'll finish third on every free agent but there are other obstacles also as you mentioned yes. There's uncertainty appellate where they'll play in twenty twenty one after being in buffalo in twenty twenty. There's just generally the hassle of playing in a different country from everyone else in. Mlb it may be farther away from a lot of players offseason homes than most other cities in the majors. There's a higher tax burden. I believe generally in canada. There's turf at the rogers centre over. I know that they're getting new and improved turf for next season but it's still not natural grass so there are various reasons why they might have to sweeten their offer and i think when they've landed players like russell martin or hundred do i think they have offered like an extra year maybe be or at least it was reported that they did to land those guys so maybe they'll have to do that again and maybe i'm biased as a half canadian and but seems like a great place to live to me to route those beautiful you. You're good healthcare and west gun violence and less cova. Didn't you can go see slow in my favorite band in toronto all the time at least when concerts come back so i say free agents should be very interested in playing in toronto but yeah it's tough and maybe some of these players they missed out on l. Be happy that they've missed out on him. It's just The law of large numbers aac s. Maybe one of these guys almost signed will backfire for whoever did side them. And they'll feel like they dodged a bullet or something like maybe with hendrix. Like we talked yesterday about the hendrick signing and how he's been basically the best reliever in baseball over the last couple years and he's a former blue jay too but also like it relievers and you know. There's the pj ryan precedent which is probably still in the memory of some blue jays fans and even hendrix. Like as good as he's been recently he was designated for assignment in two thousand eighteen and he pitched more in the minors than in the major. So it's not like he says. Sure thing and that was one of the larger deals ever handed to reliever so you know maybe with some of these players. You feel almost relieved that you didn't get them but when you watch player after player after player go to other teams. You gotta feel like you're sitting on the sidelines and you must feel some envy so one of these days. Maybe it will be the case with the press conference at the end. Maybe they're apprehensive about the milk. Coming and bags. Maybe that could be. Maybe they're like. I don't know what to do with the milk bag. I'm going to spill the milk bag. It's gonna get all over me over the counter to somehow still be in the fridge because it's where milk goes. Maybe they're afraid of the milk bags. Ben what's up with the bax. I don't know kiss despite being half canadian. I've never actually lived in canada of visited bunch of times but cannot really explain the milk. So maybe the. Milk factor is underrated. Here i hadn't considered that. I want to apologize to you for the emails. We're gonna get in response to this question. I'm really sorry all right well. Let's clear out our in box to make room for those emails here. So andrew says. I don't pay much attention to college. Sports but struck by the pride that fans have for the conference in which they play as well as for their favorite team. I am curious how both of you perceived divisional or league pride in mlb and what could affect these types of feelings in college sports. I think because the competitive environment is less. Structured fence have incentive to prove that they're conferences more legitimate or more competitive than its peers. As far as i'm a be. The format of the twenty twenty season may have helped with the potential for regional pride and more frequent divisional match ups but imagine any change in fans mindset was minor so you probably know much more about college sports than i do because i know next to nothing about co sports but doesn't seem to me that there's a whole lot of divisional pride certainly in baseball. I think we've talked about whether there's league pride before because there were those like mlb ads. Where like there would be a family that would have like all of the teams from one league. They would be like really into that. League discussed the possibility of that. But now that there are almost no differences between the league's it does seem sort of silly to have much league affiliation. I am trying to decide. If i think that fans of teams that belonged to conferences that are not the sec. Or the ivy league have a strong sense of pride. I think that there is sort of a general sense. Sometimes that i think that when there is sort of league pride in something that you're you're super stoked about going to an sec school it's really a continuation of your own school pride more than it is. You're feeling like you want get together with your your powell's from other sec institutions and gang. up on. i don't know the acc. I think that mostly like pac twelve fans. We like to be mad at the officiating in the pac twelve which is just universally poor so we have that sense of league. Pride brought together mostly by sadness and frustration which might explain my own rooting interests. And you know like ivy league fans. Are there less excited about their sports. I mean they are proud of their sports but their their sense of sort of collegiality comes from the the academic prowess of their conference less so than the than the sporting prowess. I often have have thought about this in the context of sec football. Because you know like the sec is its own. It's its own special thing and the quality of the teams. There is pretty incredible. But i also think that often happens when people from the sec. We're going to get emails about this to ban. We're to get emails about this too. Sometimes directly yes. I'm so sorry you i. Maybe i'm wrong the alabama and knocked the snot out of ohio state. It's okay you guys. Like i'm not saying that they're not good but sometimes when i see people getting excited about the either like the sec rules. And i'm like you go to like i'm going to have to say that. I don't even know his true. It's like you go to one of the less good football school. See how i avoided saying which one and what you really mean. Is that alabama's very good. But you can be sassy about the sec. Ken it's inclusive of you in alabama. So i think the part of it is you know. It's like a transfer of emotion to a broader thing that allows you to still feel pride in accomplishment. And that's fine. You know we should feel proud of stuff that's good and it's nice to have a sense of camaraderie with other people. I do love quickly. That dissolves as soon as you get back into sort of your own picayune. Interschool rivalries Where it's like. Yeah we're we're ganging up on the acc. But i will you know. Throw a beer. Can you in the parking lot. If were at a rivalry game so call lenox very fraught ben feelings about it. Yeah i know so. I do not sense those feelings. When it comes to baseball divisions i mean there are cases like. I don't know if you have a particularly weak or strong division in a certain year like i don't know if there's like a l. Least pride or superiority or something in one of those years when it's like yankees and red sox judge what's and the raised bluejays are good and like every team has good. They're years when it's like clearly been the best or most competitive division and so if you're a fan of a team in that division maybe you think like wow our divisions the cream of the crop or you pride yourself on having won that division. Because it's harder to do. But i don't know if you really feel any affiliation with the other teams in that division if anything you hate them it's like the biggest rivalries so. I don't know that there's much to that. I could see like the opposite being the case like if it seems like a division is really week one year like a lot of the conversation about the central division last season. For instance and say you know did trevor. Bauer deserve to win the cy young award. If you look at the quality of competition he faced or the et al central to and maybe that was easier last year because the divisions were more isolated as the questioner mentioned here. It was sort of a unique case but other than that. I can't really think of anything else. 'cause like i don't know it seems like regionally like is there a regional component to it like in college football conferences. Maybe are the teams actually clustered closer together. Just geographically than mlb teams in divisions tend to be. Where maybe there's some loose correlation and like sides of the country but often there can be quite a gap between those teams in the city. So you don't really feel like a part of the same region. Even i think that there is definitely some of that and like you have like the big ten which for whatever weird ass reasons has ruckers which doesn't make a ton of sense to to anyone be. I think there is a. It is a proxy and a lot of voice for regional sense of pride right like we are southerners. We are mid westerners. We are west coasters. We are you know whatever you so i think some. It's probably that. But yeah. I don't i don't see it much in baseball except as you said like one year. It's it's much more often. A our guys are are more skilled. Because your guys play each other and you're all bad baseball but apart from that i don't think you see you see a ton of it. Structurally they're just don't seem to be a whole lot of reasons to have the sort of prides so that explains the lack of it. I think all right. Jonathan says this is going to sound like a football question but i promise it's a baseball question in nineteen sixty six pete. Gogolek signed with the nfl's new york giants out of the afl and became the league's first soccer style kicker. In contrast with the straight on style kickers the populated the league at the time in nineteen eighty. Six the league's last straight on kicker mark. Moseley retired in just twenty years. Fundamental technique of the game had gone from universal to extinct without any deliberate intervention from the league. Such as when an ob and spit balls. The new way was simply better. Is there any analog to this in baseball history or is there a change of this type that is in the process of happening or could happen in the future. So interesting one. Yeah come to mind for you. I guess knuckle ballers are like the most. The thing that comes immediately to mind in terms of play style right where we're just seeing fewer and fewer knuckle ballers as the years go on. I mean i guess. At some point we might see teams move away from the shift as a defensive strategy. Not because necessarily of a roll band but just because i think however effective or not effective you see it and no matter where you fall in the spectrum from like russell to the teams that do it all the time. It doesn't seem like it is a perfectly optimize strategy at the very least so we could see some of that. Let's guess that's a a team level strategy than an individual stylistic change. And i i guess i mean you could say any new pitch that is Phased in or adult pitch that is phased out in falls out of favor as you said with knuckle but you know like the the slider comes along and suddenly everyone's doing sliders or the splitter or whatever like going back to the beginning of baseball and the progressive introductions of new pitches that still not necessarily the dominant thing like. It's not like single. Pitcher throws that type of pitch and throws it all the time and it's not necessarily the majority pitch you know it's it's not like the fastball. Has gone away like there are fewer fastballs throw now or at least certain types of fastballs sinkers especially so we are seemingly heading towards a game where maybe fastballs will be in. The minority of pitches. Were getting there. It seems like so that could be an example. But i think maybe something you'd have to go back quite a ways and maybe it's just because baseball has been around for a really long time so you would expect there to be more really just transformative changes earlier on in sports history. Wake you would expect the pace of those things to slow. Probably as time went on and just as people exhausted the possibilities tried out everything. So i would guess that if you looked at like every sport you might find that there is Most common point in a sports history at which these really major changes get introduced. You know something like the the fosbury flop in the high jump or something where it just changes everything and it's so clear that that superior that everyone starts doing it so in baseball i'm trying to think like we talked about. I think Sam wrote about a player who was like the first shortstop to really throw in the way that modern players do and that changed the way that the shortstop position was played and he had like a really quick transfer and just got rid of the ball quickly and that was so long ago. We're talking nineteen th century so you hardly even remember that it was ever anything different. And then their cases were a rule changes. And i guess. Jonathan is asking for examples where it's not so much that there was deliberate intervention like banning spitballs or allowing pitchers to throw overhand or that sort of thing. But i guess what comes to mind for me. Is maybe a change in hitting mechanics swing for the fences and not choking up as much pursuing the homerun which came about in part because of babe ruth and other players who showed how effective that was also because the ball changed. And i guess you could say that that was an lp intervention even if it wasn't always entire league deliberate through they didn't always exactly know what the effects would be. But that was a big part of why that happens. You went from the dead ball to the lively ball. Which is i think. Also ah part of why we're seeing more of an uppercut swing these days and people swinging for the fences. Well he's going along with the pulping very lively and it being very advantageous to hit five pulse. So i don't know you could say on a smaller level like maybe throwing up in the zone. More often like they're definitely changes in pitch selection and pitcher -cations and all of that and catching technique has changed a bit because of framing more catchers trying to really get low and set up on one knee not as low as like tony paige nya but maybe lower than the average catcher used to be guest. The carter capps step isn't going to catch on and revolutionize pitching pitching mechanics. Look different some pitchers just pitch out of the stretch and don't even bother with the wind up anymore and wind up sir difference or a streamlined compared to the old swing your arms above your head style delivery but i don't know if it's as dramatic as going from not trying to hit the ball over the fence to hitting the ball over the fence but at that point we're talking a century ago so baseball has been around for a long time ago. How to stuff has been tried. Yeah i think that when you're further away from the the big sort of milestone developments in your sport then like throwing passes downfield. You're you're just you're operating on the margins more often than not which isn't to say that there can't be big advances but as we've talked about a lot on this show they they you know a lot of the big stuff has has been tried and then gone out of style and then come back into style right like i talked about the shift. It's not as if that was invented recently right so i think that it's just harder to come up with something entirely new. And so yeah we. We see a lot of tinkering around the edges and adjustment. And then we see guys go back right like how many hitters did we see try to adopt high launch angle swings and tinkered a little bit Angle came back down slightly. And so you know it just gets wicked to this tinkering tinkers. Yeah if we could think of a truly just landscape altering change that tell you or i don't know we would probably be brilliant or geniuses or we would do something useful with that information if we knew that every player was doing something wrong in some way better way to play baseball. I'd be impressed with us for knowing that after. No one else knew that after the extremely long history of baseball. So we are getting all this new data. And it's definitely teaching us things about mechanics and things that were not known or or recognized because you couldn't analyze them so there will continue to be changes absolutely. I don't know if they would be enough to qualify for this kind of question. So i think there have been examples of this in baseball but they may be behind us at this point. But i don't know maybe people will profess wrong. And there's something that we're not even suspecting that will change everything we wouldn't never tell you we would just tell other people i yes and then we will tell and people would go that ben and meg the shortstop a. mentioned to change the way that that position worked by the way is bobby wallace who is a hall of famer. Although he's not really a household name. I'm just reading from one of sam's Mike trout tracker. Were he tracked. Which hall of famers might trout head past career war. And here's what he writes about well. As he wasn't a terrible hitter anything it's hard for us to know what to make of hitting stats from such a profoundly different era but his appeal was better than league average and he was often in the top ten in doubles or triples and twice in slugging percentage but is defender not just a great one but an innovative one he is generally credited with inventing the now standard continuous motion of fielding and throwing. We've talked about bobby law four. Yes we have yet been awhile so just refreshing people's memories and here's a quote about wallace as more speed was constantly demanded for big league ball. I noticed many infield boundaries which the runner beat too. I only the thinnest fractions of a second. I also noticed that the old time three movement fielding about coming erect for ottosson throwing. I wouldn't do uncertain hits with fast men. It was played at the stop and toss had to be combined into a continuous movement which seems so plain. As i'm sure we said last time that it doesn't seem like anyone would have had to think about that like it. Seems like it just should have been apparent right away. Yeah you want to feel the pollen throw in a continuous motion. Who i would not do that but it took someone to think. Oh that's a good idea. I should do that and then to throw the wave hit. Were all taught to throw and we all expect players to throw now so. That's the sort of thing that you can do fairly early in sports history. It's like the basic fundamental actions. Still are maybe not optimized and yeah. I don't know that there are any major innovations to be made in. Say throwing the ball across the infield to right. Now i wanna know two things. And i might have noted these the last time. We talked about bobby wallace so our listeners will have to forgive me if i if i did but i would like to know two things the first of which is that. Despite changing the way the position was played. He was inducted into the hall of fame until nineteen fifty three by the veterans committee. So i find that kind of thing. Because he changed the position there is no mention of the innovation in his co. bio there is now he did break some records in terms of how long he played the position. He was the oldest shortstop to play a regular season game at forty four years and three hundred twelve days for a very long time until omar vizquel broke the record in two thousand twelve. And then i think we did mention this the last time. He both managed and umpired later in his life. Which was just very strange and cool resume. But yeah this this big thing that he did that. Change the sport that play shortstop and what they have to look like and how they're scouted and what they do no mention of it in his wicket bio i find that outrageous. Yeah it is in his saber bio and yes look. It's possible like that quote. I just read is a quote from wallace about himself. The that he is saying that he figured out how to throw. So it's possible. Like i don't know if say verify this or looked for additional can supporting evidence like maybe while. This is exaggerating that. He revolutionized the throw like humans have been throwing for a long time not necessarily baseball. But i mean going back to hunting and gathering and throwing spears and such like seems like the sort of thing that baby would have. Figured out before bobby willis like you know were I don't know the neanderthals. Like not throwing right. Because bobby wallace wasn't around so they were doing the old time three-phase movement and they were missing out on all sorts of prehistoric creatures. That could have been dinner for them. I don't know maybe. He is singing his own praises in a way that is not justified by the facts. But i liked the story. I like the idea that bobby wallace had to come along and teach everyone to throw. It's amazing it's incredible thing. I'm gonna claim that i- revolutionized something that basic. I have to think about what it is. But i'm gonna come up with something. There will be a quote that i can say about myself some day that i did something different. No one else had ever done it. Before and future. Generations will just accept that at face value. They'll say oh. Yeah ben lindbergh. He's the one who figured out how to walk. You know he. He revolutionized walking. He sat better than anyone else had ever sat before. I don't know what it'll be. I'll give it some thought. But i'm gonna. I'll create a wikipedia page for myself. Put it on there and see if it catches on so that that will be my saber bio someday one time. I was sitting in my chair and sat on my foot long enough. That when i got up to go get coffee. I fell right over. I dilution is that. I just fell over ben. Forgotten how to walk yeah. That's not really a change that everyone else adopted and decided to do though yet not yet. No not yet all right continuing on. Let's answer one. From mike who says through some unexplained occurrence. You've been transported. Back to two thousand as the gm for the seattle mariners. Since you still remember baseball history you were able to draft and trade for future all stars and hall of famers. How many moves can you make before you alter history in such a way. That changes player outcomes. How many championships you win in twenty years. So this is kind of a close cousin of genre of question we have discussed before which is like if you transport a modern gm or manager or player to the past. How much better are they than everyone else. You know if you take a modern. Gm who has evolved a sabermetrics knowledge. And you put the century ago. How much better would they be. And we've talked about the ins and outs of that. Because you know a lot of things that others wouldn't have known your new contemporaries would not know on the other hand you wouldn't have access to all the data that you are used to today at least not yet but it seems like there'd be a big advantage there this question. I guess involves that question. But i think it's less about that. I think it's less about knowing the things that gm's didn't know in two thousand in terms of sacred metrics although that's probably part of it but just knowing which guys are gonna be good players are going to pan out like that alone set aside of the other advances and insights that we've gleaned in the past two decades just from knowing which players will be good or at least which players were good in your original timeline. How big advantage does that give you. I think it gives you a pretty sizable one. Yeah i think it's huge. I think it's pretty sizable. I think there are going to be some limitations to you being able to do whatever you want. Because you know like you still have to operate within the eds like you. Don't you're not gonna tell anyone right. You're not gonna tell anyone. I'm from the future because then they're going to say how're you doing today. Friend and you probably don't get to run a baseball team but so you can't disclose that you have that knowledge because people are going to think you're a little bit cracked and if you make improvements to your team in the immediate term some of the things that you might wanna do like say take advantage a guy who is still a first rounder but his drafted to lo who's got to go get that guy you might not be in a position to draft him because you might be better than your record would have been in the alternate timeline. Where lake you're letting jackson's run things for a really long time. So you are going to be limited in some of the moves that you can make but you could do things like like you could trade for fernando tatis junior for not very much in big big-league return right such a mean thing to say much so you could do stuff like that right where you could look and say. The sky is going to be a superstar. But he's tremendously he's under scouted or undervalued right now or if you know things about you know how to optimize spin and make pitches more spin efficient and you know what it means to have pitches that you know a good forced moore of the top of the zone with high spin you can go back in time and like trade for garrett cole in fixes fastball right so you could do stuff like that where there is just a gap between what the industry knows not even necessarily sort of early safer metric concepts but more modern advances that you know are coming and no are effective and then you can go and get guys who aren't sort of properly valued or whose development is perceived a stalled when it isn't really they just need a different thing to unlock it or if you're just the mariners just draft mike trout. Yes great so part of it is just drafting. Mike trout and that makes for a lot of this other stuff right. That alone is huge. I think like there's no excuse in this scenario for not building the best team ever and probably the best dynasty ever am not going to say that you would win the world series every single season broncos even if you do build the best team ever. There's still a lot of randomness and luck and health. And all these things that goes into it and you might get upset at some point but there's really no excuse for hut basically the best team in baseball every year. I don't think because there's just such a crapshoot draft is just normally such a crapshoot and you're happy if you get just like a pretty limited hull from your average draft and in this case you know all the good players players in every traffic every single one of your picks basically i mean it depends because you don't necessarily get to choose where you draft as you said and there are some drafts where there aren't a ton of really great players but like basically every one of your draft picks should be a good big league player because you can find those guys if you know how it's gonna turn out so at no point. Should you ever like have to have a lack of depth or call up a replacement player. Something like your aaa teams. Should be stacked with like big lakers. Because you could just hog them all and i think it would just be such an enormous advantage now as mike said like yes you would change history and he said how many moves can you make before you alter history in such a way that it changes player outcomes will one. I mean you would change player outcomes almost immediately. I think because players go to different places and maybe they get hurt in a way that they wouldn't have gotten hurt otherwise were they do or don't work with a coach and that changes things as are stuck behind someone that they wouldn't have been stuck behind so it it changes things immediately but you know who has the potential to pan out and turn into a superstar and really even given the constraints and the limitations. And the fact that you can't just acquire anyone atwill at a time like pretty much every move you make should be good and you would probably be burned as a witch before you would not be able to build a great team because really i mean just think of like the percentage of players who are not top prospects is pretty high like this was something jeff used to write about. Sometimes at fan crafts. He looked at all the players who were worth three wins or better and on average it was like a third of them had not been on a top one hundred list and that included a lot of stars who were worth way more than three wins as good as scouts are in prospect of how you eaters are a lot of players miss and a lot of players they missed out on pan out and you should almost never miss a. You might have some guys who you know in your time. Line were great. Who get hurt and don't turn out great or just whatever some circumstances in their life that you introduced with caused them to be not great. And how would you feel if that were the case right. 'cause if you know that so and so has the potential to be a hall of famer and then whatever you change in this time line makes that player not a hall of famer probably feel pretty bad about that because you're the only person in the world who knows what that player could've been so there definitely piece of guilt in this area but yeah it should just be an absolute juggernaut. Every year and all the players would be cost controlled too so that like if you did want to go out and splurge spend on free agents which i guess you could do. Because you'd be draw has yeah well that too right. You can bid on the right free agents and you'd have the budget because you'd be winning the world series every year and unless that would just get boring because you're the perennial super team lick. Probably you could afford. You'd be drawing a lot of fans and selling a lot of tickets so but like you could acquire so many players just so cheaply because you'd be going after guys who weren't even prospects or were far away from the majors into stockpiling them that you could probably build a great team have like one of the lowest payrolls and so then you could just use that extra money to sign all the other player so it would just be total cheat code now. There would be some down sides like for example. There would be some babies that are born as a result of this because people would be in different places and they might not meet their spouses and while many major league players seem to be married to people who they've known since they were children. Not all of them are so you would alter the course of several people's lives that would be human beings who just joan exists. At least not in their current form. As a result of this the mariners would not have spent the third overall pick in the two thousand and five major league draft. On jeff clemente for instance. If this was a nice ticket kids are very. it's a. It's an injury in question. But yeah you could. I mean like now. I'm just looking at all of them. Don't do that to your so. Duffy of mariners playoff drought. Let's put it that. That didn't work out. Didn't either worn not talking about that. 'cause we have affection for him. It wasn't his fault you wouldn't have messed up magsino that's true. No you wouldn't have done that. You wouldn't have been like we have to hurry to get this guy to the majors because you just be a good team so you wouldn't have to rush him along. Who knows what makes could be in this alternate timeline where you have perfect information about every player who is good. Yeah and there would be a bit of a butterfly effect so like you would change certain things and the more time went on probably the less accurate your predictions would be like within a span of twenty years. Maybe not that much like most of the people who would have been born probably would still be borne. I don't know salmon. i talked before. I think about our differing beliefs about the butterfly effect and he believed that it would change everything more quickly than i thought. But you know if you start bringing people to cities where they would not have been and they become superstars in certain places and not other places and maybe they inspire the next generation of players to get good and if they're not in a certain places time than they don't do that so there would be kind of a cascade of changes. And so you would be. I think a little less able to predict these things after a decade or two because he would have totally changed the course of baseball history. But i think within that timeframe you would still be pretty good because if we're talking about two thousand like the greek players of today had already been born then so you know it wouldn't be such a dramatic change in that span of time but you might also just break baseball. You might just ruin the sport because you would build just such titan that it would ruin the sport like you might have to intentionally tank in a sense like you might have to taiwan hand behind your back in some way because if you took full advantage of this knowledge a people would suspect that you were doing. Something supernatural which you would be frankly. I guess that we've according to our current understanding of physics or how manipulate physics. So you might have to just you know. Take your foot off the pedal just to remain in this job and not be imprisoned for being a wizard or whatever but also you might just ruin the sport because if you can get all the best players with this foreknowledge than there just won't be a lot of suspense even given the inherent randomness of baseball so you might have to make it. Look good and not really take full advantage of this information. I think you'd be under investigation as a cheater all the time. Yes i think that. I think that you would be suspected of cheating just constantly And in part because there are some parts of this that would that would as knowledge in baseball. Tends to fuse over the rest of the league right so if you have an understanding of spin efficiency go back that as an example that you are imparting to members of your organization earlier than other people. Eventually they're going to go get jobs and they're gonna go to other front offices and sort of history will proceed along the path that it would have anyway but if some of the stuff you know is just this guy is good and the source of your knowledge is not the result of tweaking delivery or a batting stance. But just that you know he's good. That doesn't come from anywhere. But your weird time travel brain so that people would assume that you were poaching information in some illegal nefarious way or that. You are a wizard because we we famously. Assume people are wizards in in twenty twenty. We're like that guy. We put people in jail for being wizards. But i don't think we've made that a crime. I hope not. That's not. I hope was earning is not a crime hair or or or witching. That's not how you say that. But you know what i mean. I'm i'm going to observe the when i stack the chat and the pod back tobacco punchy get questions like this. It's hard not to but this is not quite like the back to the future scenario which is when salmon. I talked about the butterfly effect. Before we're biscuits rich. Because he has the sports almanac and he knows which teams are gonna win and talked about. Well how accurate with that actually be. Because he'll start changing things and maybe the scores and the outcomes will change this. I think is a little bit because again it's just like who has the athletic talent. And when will they be boring and wear. And i don't know how much you could actually sway that stuff in the span of fifteen twenty years. So yeah and the other insights and knowledge that you had as you were just saying like that stuff would disseminate knowledge about how baseball works. But if you don't tell anyone about what you know in the fact that you're from the future and that you know which players are going to be good that at least would not travel that would remain proprietary information so no way for anyone else to exploit that really. How many of those moves do you think you would have to do before your staff and your ownership group is just like yet. let make do it. She's got a good sense for these things because some of the moves would be obvious or at least within the realm of something that is feasible. Rate like we'll take the trout example. You know even if we don't believe every team in baseball that isn't the angels that they were. They were gonna draft him next really. He was at the top of their but had a general sense that mike trout was talented their reservations. About how talented clearly precluded them from drafting him earlier but he wasn't lake you know he wasn't taken in the seventh round. He was still a first round. Pick but there. There would be guys who you would say right. Fernando tatis junior right. i saw him on the backfield. Go get that guy. And it's where in your tenure as a savant you fall is probably going to determine how able you are actually act on that knowledge because you might be proposing some really radical stuff that people just not used to don't believe and so. I wonder how long you'd have to be right. Either with guys who you bring into your own organization or who your organization sees sort of thrive elsewhere before they believe we should start listening to that guy. yeah well. After a certain point you wouldn't even need a staff. I don't think you need one. You might want to employ people or you might wanna keep up appearances and make it look like you're not just doing it off the top of your head but like you don't actually need scouts. I don't know that you need like statistical analysts like you know everything you know more than everyone else. You are the best possible scouts in all multi versus so you could just It would be a one person show. If you wanted it to be and then you wouldn't even have to listen to any dissenting opinions if you didn't want to but yes it would be hard to prove like. How would you demonstrate that you had this information like if you were not just automatically the gm if you had to get the job right how would you prove to an owner. Yes you should hire me. Because i know everything that's can happen because as you said can't say that you can't get that job if you say yes i just came from the future then so i happen to know which players are going to be good. You would have to convince them that. You do have great predictive powers but without disclosing the reason why so. I don't know what the best way to do. That would be like. Would you just Publish publicly like the the bill james and publish your own abstract and just make a whole lot of predictions about the coming season. That you know will turn out to be true and then at the end of that season you'll say look i was right about everything. Hire me and maybe that single season would be enough to convince someone to give you job or do you try to get an entry level position and then start sending memos say we should send this guy. I bet that he will have a great year this year and then he does and then you quickly get promoted. So that's a little bit of a hurdle you apply this information even if you have it. Yeah it would not be a friction. 'less reality that you are faced with but i think that you're right to say that the upper hand you have would be so significant that it would be almost embarrassing if you didn't manage to win a couple of world series along the way. Oh yeah you better worth met. I think although no one would know that but you yeah deeply satisfying any way for you. Not really right. I mean would it be fun because you know everything already and therefore you know that you're working with a just a stacked deck in your favor so you're fans might not know that but for you. What sense of accomplishment would you actually feel. I don't think would feel very much on the one hand. You raise an excellent point but on the other hand. Literally jeff clemente baton. I would. i would not feel as if i had done anything. Particularly savvy or smarts per from applauding my own good memory. I suppose although as you said you know you still have to implement some stuff. So it's not like there's nothing that you have to do. But if i could bring joy to friends and family that's zone accomplishment. Even if it's sort of ill gotten but like is there a victim in this isn't. Isn't it a victimless crime. Because just think of all the rule five draft overflow you would have people would rather rule five is really changed. All these guys are excellent. That's true you know. I guess the overall talent level in the league would be higher because unless you purposely. Don't go after more players than you can employ like if you do just stockpile all the good players that you possibly can acquire. There will be more of them than you can put on your roster and so they'll just all be stuck in your minor league system and eventually yeah they'll get rule five and everyone will draft players from your system as they know that you have a perfect or near perfect record when it comes to projecting players and so eventually i don't know how many years it would take but maybe after twenty years like the entire league would basically be populated by the players you picked and i guess at that point you know the advantages or the effect is diluted because Like even today we don't necessarily have perfect information about the present players and and so you couldn't maybe make the league as a whole lot better because you only know which players did pan out. And they were major leaguers. It's not like you're taking non major leaguers and making them major leaguers. But i don't know i wonder whether there would be some ripple effects. There were the week as a whole which just get more competitive by poaching players from your system or copying you as quickly as they could and then that would change things too but not so much that you wouldn't still win every year so yeah you'd be the savior of seattle accepted. Seattle wouldn't know that you spared them years and years of heartbreak making the playoffs and meanwhile you'd be depriving all the other teams and fan bases. That in our timeline made the playoffs instead of the mariners. Well here's the thing about that though. Then which is that. The mirrors were really bad before like the late nineties and early two thousand so they wouldn't know the run of futility the recent run of that i had saved them from but they would be like. Wow don't have to go back. Don't have to go back to those kingdom days. We can enjoy the hetty highs of safeco wonder if t mobile still ends up being the new sponsor if there forever forever winners. You don't need ballpark sponsor. I don't think you're you're making as much money as you want in this scenario. I'm pretty sure. I just wonder though you know what is my identity. Not only has a baseball fan but as a human being baseball is perpetually fun. Your am i ben. If it is fun maybe it would be like a monkey's paw sorta scenario where you want the opposite of what the mariners have gone through and instead you make the playoffs and you win so many games every year that it's just not fun for you anymore and just you wish that there were some frailty to the teams that you could appreciate when they get good and you've just never experienced that so it might be too far on the other end of the spectrum. I think it's fine to just just plod along with other teens doing well and then hopefully we have a new day. That is the result of supernatural. Planning and mac nations. I think i think i'm comfortable going with that. Okay can i give you a step west. Yes please ooh aric. So this step west won't be that stat filled but here we go. I saw this article on wednesday. That was published by npr. It's an excerpt from the planet money newsletter. And it's titled nineteen nineteen teaches us about pent-up demand and the premise. Basically is that there is a lot of pent up demand during the prior pandemic that then expressed itself in an outpouring of spending and enthusiasm after that pandemic and so that augurs well for the president or the short term future. Because people who've been cooped up for so long because of the coronavirus just might come out in droves into all sorts of activities. It's like we were talking about on our previous episode we want ballparks be full again when it safe we want to get back to the park and see games in person and probably a lot of people. One would think feel that way. So it's making the case that there is this demonstrable effect in baseball after nineteen eighteen and the influence of iris. So i'll just read here overall the war and the pandemic slashed. Mlb game attendance by over half from what it was. In the previous season that world war one of course by nineteen nineteen the were in the pandemic were over and tidal wave of baseball fans swelled into stadiums game attendance more than doubled from a little less than three million in nineteen eighteen to about six and a half million in nineteen nineteen. It's a classic example of what economists call pent up demand after being deprived of being able to do something when the constraints are lifted. Whether because of the end of a recession a war or a pandemic people ravenously consume. What was previously out of reach now with light beginning to show at the end of the covid nineteen tunnel. The words pent up demand or echoing throughout the business world. The ceo of jet blue says pent up demand for travel. We'll have his company so we're back to profitability executives at marriott claimed people will come rushing back to the company's hotel rooms according to a recent analysis by alpha cents a company that uses artificial intelligence technology to sift through securities and exchange commission filings event transcripts and other business documents use of the term pent-up demand is at an all-time high execs in industries. Devastated by covid. Nineteen clearly want investors to believe that they're on the verge of a roaring comeback and some evidence suggests they may be right according to data from the us bureau of economic analysis. The national savings rate has jumped during the pandemic so people may have extra cash to burn on big trips. Fancy cocktails and broadway shows and man to people miss going out and then sites and polls that say that americans miss doing all these things that they don't get to do anymore and there's also some evidence from other countries that have gotten the pandemic under control and their industries have bounced back. But i'm curious about this in baseball context because if as this article posits there was this big pent up demand for baseball and it came roaring back in one thousand nine hundred and there was a huge attendance boost. That would be relevant for baseball's future. Because we've been talking about you. Economics of baseball and fewer games and fewer fans in the stands and how that's affecting the free agent market and everything else and so if this were true if there's been a big pent up demand for baseball then we could expect that maybe attendance will get a big boost whenever that happens whenever we actually are post pandemic and people feel safe coming out again which may not be this year. Maybe it'll be your after. But eventually so i wanted to sort of investigate whether this claim holds water and on a surface level. It's true like the stats. Cited in the article are accurate. According to baseball reference so in nineteen eighteen there were three thousand thirty one fans per game and in nineteen nineteen that when way up to fifty eight hundred forty two fans per game the obviously like minuscule numbers compared to today. But this was what it was back then and so on that level it seems that yeah there was pent up. Demand and people came flooding back into ballpark. So great news for mlb in twenty twenty one and twenty two or whenever. However i'm not sure that i really buy this for a few reasons one. This was not really an unprecedented level of interest. So it's not as if attendance went up to levels. That had really never been even rivalled before because of this pent-up demand. It's really just that it went back to what it was prior to world war. One more or less like. Yeah technically it was a record number of fans per game but by like eleven fence per game that was the record so like in nineteen o nine there were fifty eight hundred thirty one fans per game in one thousand nine hundred and there were fifty eight hundred forty two so you know essentially indistinguishable in nineteen. Oh eight was fifty seven twenty six so there had been previous years where there was just as much interest just as much attendance and those seasons there were even more games played than there were in nineteen nineteen so it wasn't A scarcity effect that was causing that. So it's not as if this was really unprecedented by any dramatic degree. So that's part of it and then also post nineteen nineteen. Attendance kept going up. It went up to seventy three hundred ninety one in nineteen twenty and it stayed in the seven thousand or eight thousands throughout all of the nineteen twenties. So it's hard to pin that on pent-up demand like the pent up demand linger for decades. You know people were still getting this out of their system or was it just that there were other factors that relating to increase attendance and that continued to sustain that increased attendance long after the step in nineteen eighteen so i emailed a couple of people. I i checked with john. Thorn the official historian of major league baseball and he responded he says. I don't buy the pent up demand theory either i. The influenza epidemic barely affected baseball attendance in nineteen eighteen. As the scheduled games managed to dance between the raindrops. Miraculously second as you note per game levels were merely restored in nineteen nineteen to prior levels the nineteen eighteen attendance was diminished by concerns about the war some measure of consumer privation and perhaps the reluctance of able bodied men to show up at the ballpark when they should have been engaged in war work. A general psychological malays in nineteen eighteen may have played into lowered attendance to as it could for twenty twenty one before nearly universal vaccination takes hold but now you have me speculating about the future. Not my strong suit. I also checked with jacob camera key of saber. Who has been on the show before we talk to him about the nineteen nineteen mask game that was played and he's been on to talk about the black sox season expert on that scandal so he knows a lot about this period and i asked him if he bought this pent up demand theory and he said sort of but not because of the pandemic indoor economic reasons since there were no restrictions on fan attendance in nineteen eighteen. The biggest reason attendant sword in nineteen nineteen is because all the star players who had left their team for military service such as thai kaban eddie collins or defense industry jobs shoeless joe etc. Came back to play which Now that i think about it is a pretty obvious. Point doesn't really apply to twenty twenty twenty twenty one like there were a few players who opted out but not so much that that would suppress attendance if there had even been attendance and he continues that same reason. Mb attendant sword in nineteen. forty six. To when joe dimaggio and ted williams and hank greenberg all came back from world war two and he continued that The babe ruth saved baseball myth is pernicious and not remotely true. That's not why. The attendance continued to increase after nineteen nineteen. He says the reality is baseball. Was doing just fine before. And after that pesky were business got in the way. Ruth certainly helped drive more fan interest. But he isn't the reason why so many nine yankees teams enjoyed record breaking attendance between one thousand nine hundred and nineteen twenty four too so it may not be that babe. Ruth revolutionized the game or the lively ball increased scoring might just be because that was a good time economically and know prior to the depression. You had a good economy you had for the most part you had population increasing or people who could go to the game. And jacob says the roaring twenty s word for baseball in all the same ways as it did for everything else in american society and yes carefree postwar attitude. The pent up demand part was a factor in that environment too. But i'd say it was the end of the war not the pandemic. That really was the driver there. You can't separate the nineteen eighteen slash nineteen nineteen pandemic from the war for better or worse just as we won't ever be able to separate the two thousand twenty two twenty one pandemic from the right wing. Us global political insurgency. So i think when you put it all together it's encouraging in the sense that things did bounce back more or less right away like you got back to previous levels and so that suggests that perhaps when it is safe to go back to ballparks people will go back to ballparks and there won't be a big hang over effect however i don't necessarily think that it will mean that we will reach stratospheric heights of attendance or that some of the recent downturns in attendance which remember when we were all reading about that. Like what does it mean that they were. You know a million fewer fans her whatever like back in those days when they were any fans at all. Those were nice problems to have. In retrospect. But i don't know that. Just the pent up. Demand will necessarily restore attendance two previous peace or a new record so some reasons to be encouraged but also. I think some reasons to be skeptical about this being an enormous post pandemic boost. Because they're just a lot of factors that contribute to attendance and the economy is a big one and it remains to be seen what the economy will look like later this year or next year if people are still out of work they're not going to have the disposable income to go to games. Yeah i think that your skepticism is warranted. I do think that people will feel very good to be back at the ballpark when they're able to be there safely. But i think that we have a sort of understanding of what the the natural limit of that sort of surge in pent up demand as an aside pent up demand stopped having any meaning in what you were saying about a third of the way through because you had to say it so many times and that is not a criticism of you but simply What happens when a certain word is repeated over and over again. And you're like is this a word. What is english. don't understand. I think we have a a sort of understanding of what the sort of outer bound attendance might be now. I don't have trouble believing that there will be a small percentage of people who are like. Wow i really enjoyed watching baseball at home while the pandemic was going on. And it's been a while since i've been to the parks i'm gonna get out there because boy won't feel good but i would be more receptive to the idea of there being a a meaningful and sort of sustained surge that resets our baseline expectation of what attendance looks like if we had any kind of evidence that in the course of the pandemic as folks were home we created a bunch more new baseball fans and. I don't think that we really have any sense that that's true if anything the ratings don't seem to bear that out so i think you're skepticism is warranted and we say that it won't feel great to be back at the park but i don't think that it's going to represent anything other than at least in the long-term sort of a return to the the levels that we have seen before and i i would be interested and i guess the cop for this is less the return for more than folks coming back from the strike seasons. Although i don't think that the sort of acrimony over the summer is is the same as it was in any of the strike shortened years. But you know there are also people who are like that. All seemed very unsavory last year. Maybe i'm gonna take a little break from the sport. So right henna. Kaiser wrote recently. She talked to fans who assertive stopped paying attention to baseball in threaten. Nian there are a lot of reasons to do that. Many of which had nothing to do with baseball. So maybe that won't stick beyond this year for some of them but for others it might because you go without something for your and realize you don't need it. Yeah although i will say i don't mean to sound fancier braggadocious when i say this but i did. I did have one press box experience in twenty twenty and it was weird and it was definitely different. And i don't say this like i thought there should have been fans there but then swear felt fucking great. Sure though fucking great be there so for the folks who do return when we're able to do it in a way that is safe it it's gonna feel so good you're gonna you're gonna feel so good and i am delighted for each and every one of our listeners to get experienced that because i didn't think that the feeling of it being good would be able to overcome the weirdness or my sort of trepidation about being there and whether it was the right thing to be there but it sure did felt felt awesome so i cannot wait for everyone to experience that safely. Because it's gonna really it. I think it'll move you in a way that you're kinda surprised by yeah. I'm looking forward to feeling that feeling myself will be reduced to like raving about the crack of the bat and the green in that first. Glimpse you get to the field all the About baseball at going to baseball games will actually feel that mccann. The yeah it. The pros will be deep purple for awhile. And your and. I hope that you will just bear with us when that happens because it won't be an affects like it'll be very sincere which might make it worse but it's gonna it's gonna be rough couple of weeks there. Well people kind of recalibrate normal again but yeah anyone who's felt like the discourse about baseball has been too negative over the past year. Hopefully not mind if it becomes too positive. Yeah in some some much-needed balance in the way that we've talked about the sport so all right. Maybe we can crimen one quick one here. This is from thaddeus sabe major league baseball hold often adding that the h. To the national league for at least one more season but in an attempt to dissuade potential dissent the agree to give pitchers an advantage to compensate and l. starting pitchers and an l. Starting pitchers would be allowed to use metal bats when hitting with this be enough of an advantage to raise the pitcher hitting floor. Would it be worth it to then potentially start a better hitter as your pitcher in the hopes of eking out more offense. Obviously in otani mckay would be immensely valuable. But with the likes of lorenzen bumgarner become notably. More valuable probably not answered his own question. Probably even there's no period at the end of that puffy that appreciate that just asked and answered but we will answer it anyway. Do you agree with that. I that probably not is the right answer. I don't think that. How do i wanna say this. I think that the issue lies more in pitch recognition than it in in sort of contact quality although contact qualities also largely an issue. So no i don't think that it would be. It would make a huge difference for the average hitter. And even the guys who we think of as like good major league hitters. Who are pitchers like you know. They're still they wouldn't they wouldn't crack the lineup as as a hitter necessarily but there's no way it would be worse making a hitter pitch so that they could use a metal bat. I now it would be a big advantage for a real hitter to use a metal bat but it would be a huge disadvantage for them to pitch for a very exclusive limited number of players. So yeah i. I don't think it would equalize. Things are come to it. it would help. I mean there would be. Some difference would be a little less impotent at the plate but as he said like a big part of the problem is that they just can't hit the ball and i don't know that a metal with help them do that. Like pitchers struck out in forty three point. Five percent of plate appearances in twenty nineteen compared to twenty three percent for all hitters including pitchers so basically they struck out roughly twice as often as non pitcher hitters did and that was in two thousand nineteen and so after a year of not hitting and just a general increases in strikeout rate. It would be even more extreme so if you restored pitcher hitting twenty twenty one like pitchers are going to be striking out close to half the time and i don't know that a metal bat would really help like i guess in the sense that may be the bats are lighter like maybe you could have more contact or entity. I guess it depends like what the rules are if they have to be a certain weight so that that's comparable at least in. You're not getting a huge advantage when it comes to getting the bat on the ball and the big advantage comes from what happens after you hit the ball but yet it's just a problem if you're starting out from within or or striking out in half of your plate appearances that's just like half of your plate appearances where the bat basically doesn't matter you could beholding just about anything and it wouldn't really make a difference and then a lot of the other balls in play our bunce or weekly hit balls that yeah like you'd probably get more posted the in fields but i just don't think it would be a really meaningful difference like they would not rival real which admit hit or sick it would still be very clear that they were a cut below even the defense first positions rate. Oh gosh she would be. I would enjoy the visual. Though i would enjoy the visual madison bumgarner with a metal bat about that feels right now. I don't know why the auditory component of to like the metal bat ping can maybe be a bit annoying if it's every hitter but like that'd be kind of a cool thing to separate the pitcher plate appearances from all the others like usually when the pitcher's at the plate you started to out you know it's like oh probably nothing's going to happen here and the opposing pitchers not even trying hard. Generally and this is just boring. But if you had that like metal bat. That's at least kind of intriguing. 'cause like every now and then a pitcher would get a hold of and would hit a ball just an extraordinary distance rate lake. There are some pitchers who have power but like you know pitchers hit home runs occasionally and you would at least see them. Hit like probably the longest home runs. Like i assume that probably would. Do you think a pitcher would hit the longest home run hit in. Mlb given season like even farther than you know the the longest Giancarlo stanton aaron judge. Home now whoever hits the longest i don't know i. i guess. I'd have to look up the difference that a middle bet makes to how far paul carries. Because you know pitchers occasionally hit up all along way and if they were using a metal bat it would go a good deal. Farther i just. I don't know. I'll have to look up with this. Sort of booster or the exchange rate is there. I like this as a as a new entry point for you watching more college baseball ben about those bats a lot of those. Yeah you could watch them anytime you want. They're out there all right. Let's see. I just looked up the longest home runs. Hit pipe pitchers in the statcast era. So since twenty fifteen and the longest one was hit by john gray in july twenty seventeen four hundred sixty seven feet that's chorus field of course but he really crushed it. It's odd because that's the only home run he's ever hit in the major leagues. He's a terrible hitter. He said oh. Eighty seven one thirty six one. Twenty three in two hundred thirty one plate appearances that said negative forty-nine wrc plus but that one plate appearances pretty impressive and the longest home run hit by any hitter. That year was aaron. Judge for ninety six so only twenty nine feet. Farther than grey's it wouldn't take that much. The longest homer hit by a pitcher not in cores is four fifty five taiwan walker also in july. Two thousand seventeen. It occurs to me now though because you brought up college baseball they really deaden bats there so that they are more durable than wouldn't pats but they don't behave differently so it really depends on the specifications of the bats and the coefficient of restitution and all of those other qualities with some kinds of middle. Pats the ball might not go farther at all but with others it would go a good deal further. Although i guess with that kind you would also hit the ball harder and then that could be a safety issue but you really need to know the specs to enter this question. I always forget by the way the term the name for the term that you were referring to earlier when you said that pent up demand stopped sounding the word. It's semantic satiated. Oh that's delightful but very hard to say. Yeah i always forget it. I have to look it up every time. I'm going to remember this time. Semantic say she should say she -ation is a hardware to say we both struggled it like Why didn't we come up with an easier way to say that it's a you know. Language in the brain is such a funny thing. Because it's like those words to have meaning when you say them out loud too many times but then your brain is able to lake figure out what a word is based on context clues and proximity of letters together when something is misspelled which was a very cool brand thing although real bummer for you as an editor just from me as another i guess is what i should say but yeah i didn't remember that term is maybe because i have said it out loud exactly once when i said it out loud just now because it's hard to say. Say say she ation say she ation. I sound like i'm affecting an accent and i'm not i just don't know how to say that word that doesn't sound like that's a real word so all right well. I had a lot of good emails that we didn't get to today. So maybe we can do another email episode sometime soon. 'cause it's been a bit so we should get some other good ones thanks to everyone for continuing to send them in agreed okay. That'll do it for today. Quick follow up to our discussion. The other day about the renaming of miller park to american family field. We were saying that even though the corporate sponsor changed don't necessarily have to change how we refer to the park and listener emil wrote in to alert us to a story about the village of west milwaukee which will also be sticking with the miller park name on miller park way which is a highway just east of what will now be american family field. The west milwaukee village president said the naming rights for the stadium could change back. Could change into something entirely different. And that's one reason we weren't going to play the game of trying to rename the road. Every time they renamed the stadium he also said when you look at the fact that it's been miller park way for twenty years now and that's how people know it that's how people recognize it regardless. Evidently the brewers requested that they changed the name to brewers boulevard. Which seems like a pretty good compromise in the city of milwaukee agreed but the village milwaukee did not at least for now they are sticking with miller parkway by the way for anyone who wants more information about the canadian milk bags. Meg alluded to earlier. I've done some research. I have that info for you now. Courtesy of a piece published by eater in two thousand nineteen. Roughly half of canadian milk consumers consume milk via the milk. Bladder including seventy five to eighty five percent of ontario residents. I'm quoting now canadians. Aren't the only drinkers repping sack. Milk people in india china israel russia ukraine iran colombia uruguay argentina. Hungary south africa. And even some parts of the us drink milk in bags which some argue more economical and environmentally friendly packaging style so it sounds as if the us is the outlier when it comes to milk consumption if anything you may be wondering why that is wealth. Eater has answers in the early half of the twentieth century when refrigeration became mainstream towns in the us canada the uk and elsewhere were supplied by milkman. Who delivered glass bottles of fresh milk to customers doorsteps. The bottles were functional and reusable. But also heavy breakable and costly to clean rudimentary versions of lightweight. Milk cartons began to emerge around nineteen fifteen and became more commonplace with the emergence of swedish company. Tetra pak in the mid nineteen sixties lightweight. Plastic milk jugs also entered the market in the mid sixties promising to increase shelf life however the plastic innovations innovations didn't stop there around nineteen sixty seven american chemical company. Dupont introduced the thin polyethylene milk bag known as a pillow pouch to the canadian market as alternative into glass bottles. The company in collaboration with guaranteed pure milk company tested pouches in montreal and vancouver canada's rushed to transition from the imperial measurement system to the metric system in the nineteen seventies forced packaging companies to scramble to change their container sizes from pounds to leaders plastic milk bladders adapted more easily to the metric standards and thus gained it edge in some parts of the canadian market so americans have resisted the milk patch just as they resisted the metric system and as it turns out those things may be related to. Now you know and if you're a free agent considering signing with the team toronto don't fear the mail pouch it can be a bit unwieldy but there are ways around that link to this piece for anyone who wants more information about no pouches. What other baseball. Podcasts helps you. Learn more about milk pouches to ensure that you continue to receive this kind of quality baseball jason information. You can't support effectively wild unpatriotic by going petri on dot com slash effectively wild blowing. Five listeners have already signed up some small monthly amount to help keep podcast and get themselves access to some perks. Ryan mclaughlin jason bowers. Jonathan duster nick. Reinhart and read. Thanks to all of you can join our facebook group at facebook dot com slash groups. Such wild can rate review and subscribe to effectively wild on i tunes and spotify other podcasts platforms q. Keep your questions and comments for me and meg coming via email at tot cast bank s dot com or b the patriot and messaging system. If you are a supporter depending on developments in the next couple of days. Maybe we'll be back to back. So it's so. Send us some questions. Thanks dylan higgins for his editing assistance and we will be back to talk to you a little later this week in to win be on of when.

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Effectively Wild Episode 1622: Non-Tender is the Night

Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast

56:51 min | 10 months ago

Effectively Wild Episode 1622: Non-Tender is the Night

"Daddy ooh hello and welcome to episode sixteen twenty two effectively vile baseball podcast ben graphs presented by patriot supporters of the wringer joined by meg. Rally of fan garoppolo meg. Hello and we are joined today by a couple of other powell's from fan graphs craig edwards. Hello craig how're you doing. Well and eric long and he can. Hello eric going okay. So we are here to discuss the offseason ahead and whether it could be better. Structurally speaking but also just the strange specific circumstances surrounding this offseason and how it will affect moves that are made or not made as the case may be and you guys have both been writing about some of the coming decisions that teams are facing with the nintendo deadline on december. Second next week can were seeing some dominos fall there and they're going to be a lot of tricky decisions. This offseason in particular. But eric you just wrote about this. In the context of recent seasons in as you pointed out there have been more and more non tenders as time has gone on and the circumstances are really aligned for there to be just sort of a non tender apocalypse this offseason. So can you explain. I guess what a non tender is for people who are kind of hazy on the terminology and why there have been more of them of late and why they're seemingly will be record number this year. Sure you have you know if a team is non tendering a player. It just means that they've chosen not to give him a contract for next year and the player enters the free agent pool and it's most often going to apply to players who are getting quote unquote expensive who are entering their arbitration years especially their later arbitration years where their salaries going to start to rise above the league minimum. That has been near for the first three years of their mlb careers and teams just more and more are viewing these while certain tier of player basically as fungible and as they start to become expensive. They are just looking toward their own farm system and just generally to the open market to replace that player for less and especially lately. We've seen that here the last week or so. The players and their representation are becoming more and more aware of this and are starting to agree to you. Know what's called like a pretender deal. Where the player knowingly takes a pay cut rather than hit the open market with a other players. That are an awful lot like him. Because part of the piece that i wrote last week is that. Hey there are some clear trends around the types of players who are being non tendered. It's a lot of i based the h type. Guys he's resigned. You are c. Cj crone who were even either coming off of pretty good years. There are just a lot of players at that position. And then you have the upper middle players who are hyper aggressive or don't hit for any power and some of these guys are mistakes to part with right like sale. Garcia had a four win season and then was cut loose. He's been pretty productive. For the brewers cesar hernandez with the phillies won gold glove hidden at the top of cleveland's order all year. So not all of these. Non tendered dudes. Were smart to cut away but it is something that increasingly especially as the thought driving for an offices becomes more uniform throughout baseball. This is under the current. Cpa what we have and there's obviously a type that is getting let go more often than some others and they're certainly teams you know even before the pandemic that were budget constrained and not interested in retaining these guys services as they got more expensive. Have you found that. There are particular teams certain types of teams that are more interested in taking advantage of the non tenders once they hit the free agent market versus others. It's variable because so much of it depends on what the competitive situation of the team is. Who is running that team in. What are their proclivities in this space. And yes there are. Certainly there is like the milwaukee and oakland any of the teams who are both constrained financially. And our i guess as a broad term forward thinking in their in their approach toward roster building if their teams out ahead in dev and analytics i guess is again to broader term than often those teams who are more willing to part with corey dickerson. Jonathan scope or whoever so And then the teams who are scooping those guys. It's a mix right it's just about roster fits is just so much harder to find the player who is at your price point on the market at the position that you need help with or in the role that you need to fill and so who appears to be interested in these types of players is hard to know at this point. You think that like boston could say hey. Our team was really hilariously bad. Why don't we sign a bunch of these. Two ish win players who are suddenly on the open market and we'll have an interesting cast of characters to put around our core pieces bogart's denver's etcetera sale coming back and compete but doesn't sound as though the red sox are interested in doing that so like you could point to some teams situationally as fits for taking advantage of this trend this year which has been accelerated end of season by the pandemic. But i you know other than the mets who have already done a bunch of this stuff on the myrlie phrase inside. I'm not sure who'd be interested in playing in this in this pool this year and craig you kind of use spearheaded our top fifty free agent exercise at fan graphs and i'm curious how you see. The non tender market and the day luge of coming non tenders interacting with the broader free agent market. I think that's going to be a theme. We returned to a couple of times in this episode. But how are these two pools of labour kind of interacting with one another. And are there guys who were free agents at the end of the season who we kind of knew. We're going to be coming up. Who might find their markets kind of cold while teams are waiting to see who among say the first base t h types are gonna hit the market come december second. I think it's not really going to affect you. Know your top ten even top twenty type of of free agents but You know in any anywhere past that you know if you're looking at a kyle warburg type player or at a rosario these these corner outfielders who tend to get the higher salaries in arbitration. You might wait a little bit if you think you can get one of those guys cheaper after the non tender deadline as opposed to maybe going out and getting jock peterson or something like that For a little bit more money or or something like that. And so it really. It holds up free agency for anybody outside the top ten or fifteen players because teams will wait out to see if you can find a comparable player like we already know. Hunter renfrow goes out there and we don't know who else is going to be but there are presumably going to be some you know generally like decent players who who will be available after the non tender deadline who aren't available now and so it holds things up and that's also true for relievers where you know when we talk about arbitration. They they get paid based on. You know sort of the traditional stats. You know. the home runs. Darby is for relievers. It saves you know and you can't really go and arbitrary and win over people by telling them what you're ucr was or something like that they're getting paid based off the traditional stats in. That tends to hurt guys like the first base d. h. types. That that eric was talking about in the corner. Outfielders may be hit. A bunch of home runs but aren't maybe quite as valuable as as the home runs. An rbi is Might indicate yep do we even know how patrician system would function this offseason because the whole thing is based on comps to pass players in past seasons and one thing about twenty twenty is that it's pretty tough to comp which i guess is good that there aren't many precedents for years and seasons like this one but really a lot of it is based as you said on counting stats. And so what do do with sixty km season in counting stats. And then also. Of course it's based on the economics of previous offseasons in years when you actually had fans in the stands and revenues coming from that and so maybe some teams are thinking well. We're going to have our player. Copped to pass players from years. When you know economics were more. Normal or revenue was higher and therefore we don't wanna be subject to these salaries that are sort of from past years so i guess the uncertainty surrounding that must be part of the fact that teams are probably going to be a bit trigger-happy when it comes to tender. Yeah i think the. I think that both sides agreed that whatever salaries they get in this upcoming set of arbitration ruling. Stay wouldn't use as comps in future years so if things are really depressed the season for whatever reason they're not going to be used in future years than the other sort of part of that is that you know i. I don't know how you look at a sixty game season and say you know this is what the player should get to you. Prorate it for a full season or do you. Just try and toss out a little bit. And then the other thing that sort of comes into as a factor here is that you can't offer a player. I think it's twenty percent. You can't make a pay cut more than twenty percent in arbitration. So that's where you see. These non tenders also come in whereas if a player gets injured during the season but was making eight million last year. You can't go in and say well. I'm going to say that he's worth four million now. He's been injured which might be the price that you would want to pay. But you're just not. You can't do that. You have to let the let the player go to free agency. the all. just add the word. I think you mentioned there is uncertainty. And i think that yes on the rosser side. It is absolutely huge factor and then coming from ownership to there's a lot of variability surrounding team by team attendance allowance for next year. What the different teams anticipate they'll be allowed to do from an attendance perspective is varying and i think there are some teams who know and are disappointed by what the government's going to allow them to do and there's some teams who don't know and so their owners are imposing budgetary cuts in line with what the low end of their hopes and expectations for next year. Are but yeah. The idea of having a full stadium worth of fans in april seems seems pretty dumb so i think that teams are operating with that in mind as well and sometimes don't even have a budget like they haven't set again. They're just waiting right. So i guess the question then becomes an. We'll we'll dive into some of the specific names. That fans might be familiar with and might be surprised to see logo. Come december second in a second but i. I'm curious then. And eric. I know you wrote about some of the outlets. That players might find themselves wanting to take advantage of if they find themselves on tendered. What are the options. That are present for these guys. Is there an opportunity. I'm going to ask you leading question here. Is there an opportunity for organizations. In some of the international league's particularly asia to scoop up some very good players who might end up playing important roles on their authors. Come twenty twenty one. Yeah the my thinking around. This was and i talked to people in japan and and with korean teams. Because they're interested in the types of prospect to i cover with a little bit more attention than you know if you're stopping your list at twenty or or whatever because they is beneath are the ones who they're most often scooping up the drew rich inskeep skis of the world. So i think that simple just like american sports sports and other countries also have greedy ownership. That are trying to suppress salaries etcetera etcetera. And so yeah like there are limitations in asian baseball piccoli. there's there's a roster limitation surrounding foreign born players. How much they can make. And it creates a very narrow window for which there is a mutual benefit for the player who might want to go over there and the team to be able to sign them like melrose junior in the k b o is making like one million base salaries get another six hundred k or so in incentives in. That's the guy who was know threatening to win the triple crown and k b o all year so there needs to be some give i think from from these Asian baseball leagues to loosen the restrictions on foreign born players to up the salaries that they can offer those players in a moment where there is still uncertainty around the twenty twenty one. Mlb season starting and and going off without a hitch and if there's a global media presence that lets me watch korean baseball japanese baseball via the internet and there are more players on your team that familiar with at the beginning of next year. And you wanna put a game on. Espn at six am like. I just think i'd be more likely to put that game on. If i know half a dozen players in it you know. It's unlikely any of them are going to be stars. But if you can tell me i can watch carter stewart ten hunter renfrow and you know a bunch of guys who have premium tools but just weren't hitting enough in mlb. I think it'd be more likely to put that on. So i think that all these guys who get fade or non tendered. There's gonna be some sort of equilibrium somewhere like. They have to find a place to settle somewhere whether that's expansion. Mlb that allows this town to defuse to other rosters. I don't know something's something's got to give maybe in the next cba it'll change but yeah there's just more talent than teams are willing to roster from a volume standpoint and they have to find somewhere to go and your conversations with those sources internationally whether they were more inclined to look at the non tender market this year in particular because they didn't have a minor league season that they were able to scout because it seems like every year we hear of you know kind of quasi types that end up finding their way to korea or japan and those guys just weren't as widely scouted this year because most of them spent time at the alternate site and then maybe a little bit of time at instructs. Do you think that that's going to make the non tender guys even more appealing. Yeah i think that The players for which the the data agreement from mlb Alternate sites. As far as i am aware did not extend to the asian team. So those teams are hustling to get as much alternate site data and video as they can through back channels also. Yes like if you were. Non tendered in. There's there's data on you or there's video for someone to watch and evaluate you as a player than the teams more likely to be interested in you just because they have a better idea of what it is you can do but if you weren't at the alternate side if you're like. I was talking about a pitcher. Julian garcia with the phillies twenty-five doesn't through that hard. It's upper eighties. But it's like pure back spending fastball. Lots of vertical life. This guys missed bats in the minor leagues for the the last four years or so after coming out of metropolitan state in colorado he was not the phillies alternate sites so they don't seem to think very much of him like that's an indicator that he wasn't the alternate site means the phillies have him behind some of the same aged arms in the system. And so maybe that guy even though there's nothing on him from two thousand twenty is maybe more viable candidate for a korean or japanese or time team so they are trying to thread that needle where the guys who played in the big leagues desirable but for mlb teams as well but there's also dade on them they can scout them and the guys who weren't on bigly teams or at alternate sites but are in that sweet spot of age and experience and the performed at upper levels. Those might ultimately be the best fits for some of these especially the the l. rather than empty who that might be the player pool. They wanna plan so. Eric you've just wrote about kind of team by team breakdown of some of the potential nintendo decisions in craig you wrote about some of the most prominent players in you surveyed the fat grafts audience to see what they think will happen. So maybe we can talk first about some of those specific big names. And then eric you can chime in on any of the teams that you think are facing interesting decisions and we've already seen some moves made just in advance of the deadline as mentioned the raise fade hunter renfrow. The orioles did the same thing with renato nunez the pirates of the same thing with trevor williams. But now we have big decisions to be made with huge names guys like chris brown and gary sanchez and tommy. Fem and kosh workers so craig. Could you run through some of those cases and say what the fan grass readership thinks will happen. I guess whether you agree or disagree. Yes sure i mean Four the big names that you mentioned brian sanchez. And it was about. Two thirds of the people projected them to to go back to their current team depending on on the player. I asked three questions whether they be tendered. A contract by their current team whether they non tendered or whether there'd be traded or waved and then get a contract from from another team like almost thirty percent of the people thought that kris bryant was going to get traded before the benintendi deadline which you know given brian's history. That's a pretty significant amount but i think people are generally. I don't know if confused the right word but it they certainly are looking at the cubs a little bit warily. Given that they keep having talks about having payroll issues and a it was just announced that They were getting one hundred million dollars so in tax credits for renovating wrigley field. But that that would not go back into the club at all. so if they're looking to move payroll kris. Bryant is projected to make about nineteen million dollars next year. So he's the guy that they would have to move for us four hours looking at about eight million dollars and gary sanchez is interesting case. I just wrote about him just generally as a player this past week as well and you know it was still two-thirds go back to the yankees but About fifteen percent thirty trader waved close to twenty percent. Said he'd just be straight up. On hundred so i i think that for the most part i think we have the the bigger players people generally expect them to go back to their team. But there's there's not insignificant portion of people who who think that they're not going to be with their teams next season. You know the guys like eddie It's more like fifty fifty but at the same is true for for corey. Table with with the brewers who you know didn't really have best season coming off of injury. And because he is closer in he used to get a lot of saves his salary was gonna come in at around five million dollars which might be more than than the brewers are are willing to pay eric. Do you have anything to add either. On the specific cases or with some of the team see looked at yes so obviously the cubs entire situation is very interesting. I mean buy it. Seems like an extension handed it to me. But what's pushing and pulling there is. He didn't play so well in twenty twenty and so i think the cubs would like to extend him. But i'm not sure that the bias camp wants coming off a year like that is as eager to do it. It would rather see his value rebound in twenty one and so that's probably impacting the bryant schreiber situations at the very least. Bryant's number for twenty twenty. One is impacting his trade value. So you're gonna see a guy who one of the top prospects in baseball who performed right away and helped end this historic drought in chicago. Probably be traded for very little in terms of prospects this offseason if a team is just gonna take him in and pay him. They're not to give up very much in terms of prospects and gary sanchez. Situation is also so fascinating and again. There's so much pushing and pulling this guy's been in the yankees organization for almost half his life at this point and during that time you know the relationship between the player and the team has been up and down with basically with sanchez's defense quality throughout his career as a minor leaguer and then as big leaguer if it were up to me. And i were running team. I just like just moved to first base. Already he hasn't wanted to catch really since he was seventeen. He's intermittently terrible at it and is taking an absolute beating back there. He's tipping pitches because of how he's set up back there sometimes and it's just not a great situation but then you avoid stanton and frazier and guys who have to occupy first base the h. And then if you were to cut him loose on the only catcher on your roster kyle gosh okay there's no other forty men where the catcher internally for the yankees they'd have to go get to other guys so it is really very complex and interesting to see what is gonna happen there. And then as far as the the general winds of non tendering the last couple years of two pieces on the site one of them examines like what type of players have been. Non tendered historically over the last decade or so and then who over. The last five years has been doing that non tender. And it's a lot of brewers. Last two years have had eight players. The rangers the reds cob or at the top of the list of last five years with thirteen players. Each and. I just approach thinking about this the way i do a mock draft. I'm looking at the team's tendencies looking at the executives. Tendencies and working. We've been told more or less by their financial situation early on this offseason. They firing people from ops or are they declining player options that would indicate that they are cash strapped and more likely to let some of these players go and i just went through projecting all the players that i in my opinion or people on the phone who i talked to would be candidates for discussion as to whether or not they'd be tendered to contract and yeah came through with a lot of names and i think that a lot of the guys who i mentioned are going to be quote unquote pretender. They're going agree to arrays with the team. But also that you're going to see some bigger names on the open market albert albert amore junior. I think it's just going to get cut away. Unceremoniously flying shields and tyler quinn. I think you're gonna see some some turnover in the cleveland outfield. They're gonna let some young guys take over there he's aguilar. I think he'll get non tendered again. The the marlins cut away some guys. Even though they're coming off of an unlikely playoff run and that might feel weird and renato. Nunez was sort of interesting one. But i think some of the had to give to and velazquez and phillies another name. I think is interesting to watch what happens. They're the they're just some straight up change of scenery candidates and i think he's one of them. Were there any either teams or individual players who you went in as you were preparing sort of make your calls and talk team folks who moved really strongly one way or the other for you. Where you either assumed. Yes this is. A surefire non tender or no this guy is very safe and then realize that the market sentiment was a little bit different than what you were expecting. Yeah you have the situation in oakland. Where lakeshore mania for me. I'm not on super hard. I think sean moniz. He's just not throwing his heart as he was as a prospect and he's more back rotation piece for me but the pitching depth in oakland is not great with james cappelli and dalton jeffries and all those guys even his was lazardo like their injury. Histories just do not really allow you to be cavalier with your pitching depth if you're trying to compete but then at the same time chad pinder tony kemp on that team. They're both entering arbitration. Neither has been very productive for the last little bit. Pinder had that one terrific year. And you know. He's always protected from more bench. Peace anyway so. I think that oakland's calls are are very interesting and became more complex than where i was on the phone. Talking about them and duval's the other one where his number was so big that i thought initially he'd be someone who is likely to be away but with unit coming off the books with the braves spending early on duvall coming off a pretty strong short and campaign. He moved into the unlikely bucket for me as i went along. So that was another one that shifted and then you have like the i mentioned the the indians feelers. They were Pretty easy call from the beginning but nick witrh grin who they used in pretty high leverage situations last year. Other folks in baseball mentioned to me. I put him in the unlikely to your but felt strongly enough based on the calls. I made that he would be in that mix too. I think he'd be a pretty good middle inning reliever for whoever ended up signing him where he'd be cut away by cleveland. And then you have some of the guys like the weird situations right. Like tommy fan was hurt and then got stopped. And it's gonna make eight million dollars and so like you don't really know what he's going to look like next year but it feels kind of crappy to like. Cut a guy loose after he was stabbed. And he certainly gives your team in. Ed gend is like one of the vocal locker room on. Fueled like let's get everybody. Fired up leader types on that team so that seems weird to get of him but also there's an unknown component to his twenty twenty one which seems to be driving a lot of the decisions especially on the injured. Pitching historically blake. Trenton was non tendered last offseason and then Signed for ten million dollars a team that can take an expensive flyer on pitcher like that. So yeah they're all sorts of guys like that where they were hurt. And we're once good or josh bell was good for a couple of months like really good for a couple of months and then hasn't been good since then and it's getting expensive and the pirates are rebuilding and can afford to let him try to be good again but also can bryan hayes. Is there now. And that means. Just colin moran isn't getting it bad so they're all sorts of significant variables. What's the other one jiman- choi choi at about. A million dollars seemed like maybe he'd be cut free. Because the rays have nate low waiting in the wings has numbers of the upper levels. Were incredible and low is going to play in the dominican for a couple of weeks and it seemed like you could evaluate him there until the deadline and make your decision on choi and then low and home because he essentially opted out of the dominican winter league season after a week of not playing. Well the cova cases got high understandably. He wanted to be home rather than abroad if you get. Covert abroad travel. And you're in the dominican. So he came home and now you can't evaluate that guy. So what do you do with choice. So weird stuff to to think about decided in cranky written so much about team finances which are always pretty opaque but you've ten your best to delve into them in. I wonder what your stance is on. You know some of the spending cutbacks that we're seeing or likely to see this offseason. How much of it is just a continuation of trend toward owners. Just trying to tighten their belts whenever possible even though times have been pretty good on the whole for quite some time now for the owners and how much of it is wealth this is actually an outlier year or two and we sub zero revenue from attendance this past year now the typical relationship you know when it's Teams signed players so that they can win more games so that they can draw more fans at least in part that is maybe breaking down a bit right now or at least is harder to count on and so it's somewhat more understandable that they would be either unwilling or reluctant to pay what they usually would. I think there was always going to be a cutback next year. Because right now there's a lot of uncertainty about what the next. Cva is gonna look like and whether or not there is going to be a lockout of some sort whether they're going to reach an agreement and so the owners you know if you looked at the where the guaranteed salaries were out potential arbitration cases. They're going to be a fairly significant cut in payroll for twenty twenty one no matter what twenty twenty look like and you can call What the owners are very Convenient excuse but You know in previous seasons not needed an excuse to cut back on free agency to delay signings until january and february when the players had no choice. So far this offseason. It's kind of looked a lot like the past few offseasons saved for last year. And i think that That's probably still going to be the case this year. But it's just going to be worse. Because of the pandemic we don't know exactly how much Teams are losing You know man for throughout three billion dollars. Hugh look at you know the the braves finances which are public. They're an average team where you're talking about half that compared to what manfred talking about you know you can't just look at teams taking on debt. Because you know a lot of times teams like to take on debt because you know they can then use their money elsewhere because they can have free money basically From their team in invest in things like the areas around the stadium and whatever else whatever other ventures that that they might be interested in. So i think that you know that. They got less revenue last year than than they were planning to but that said it seemed like they probably recouped all of their national tv money and they got a decent portion of their local tv money as well. So while there were certainly losses in revenue. Compared to years past. They made out pretty well. Considering the circumstances. And i think that there's some uncertainty about how things are going to look next year but all indications are that this was a fairly short term. And i think that the mets sale is a fairly good example of of what the rest of the financial world universe thinks of major league baseball. I think that you know the the braves being public Shows sort of the same things that you know all in all while twenty twenty was a rough year in twenty twenty. Might be a little tough overall. Baseball's in in pretty good shape financially. All right so zooming out. A little. I wanted to ask you to about. Mlb's offseason in general and how it compares to other sports because early wednesday morning noah syndergaard tweeted nba free agency. And then i guess a hair im- ot or rabbit emoji and then melby free agency and it's a tortoise emojis. So you know. I guess i don't know how if noah knows how that story ends. The the tortoise wins. But i think he is saying as many people have said that p. just moves set. You know almost like a snail's pace compared to an mba free agency. You know maybe even nfl free agency to an extent you get these really exciting russia's particularly in the nba were just everyone gets signed or traded all at once and it's just dominates the news and it's a total frenzy and then you contrast that with baseball where things happen very slowly and this offseason is unusual and so i wouldn't take this to be the standard mlp but it is true that things always play out a little slower and there are valid reasons for that. But i wonder whether you think a this is a problem when it comes to interest in those sports. 'cause i always think yeah you get that really exciting sugar rush when everyone signs in like three days but then nothing happens for months and you know there are other things to talk about but not so many transactions were as mlb sorta parcels it out and until recently when you know good players were going inside until february or march. It was okay. I think for the most part. So is this an issue and if you think it is an issue and if you wanna sort of soup up free agency or make it more exciting. Is there anything realistically that you could do. I think there might be some aspects of it. That are a marketing issue. Because we can't have. There's no cool. Mlb free agency show with. Rachel nichols sitting there with like a giant horn. That shoots confetti off when someone agrees to a deal. And whoa just coming in you know. Like jeff passan's not sitting there for two hours telling you about eight deals that have have occurred. So maybe there's marketing issue. And certainly i feel bad for the for the players when the market is so slow like so many of these. These guys deserve to know where they're going to work and play and their families are gonna live and it's probably more important now to get your ducks in a row over a period of time than to to russia at the very end to know where you're going to have spring training et cetera but But ultimately just compare sports is. I think that's incorrect. They're just so many dynamics that impact the way these things happen. That are make basketball different from baseball right on down to how many players on your roster you just have fewer decisions to make when you're the sixers and you go all right. Well we need people who can shoot then you just don't there's a whole segment of the market that you just don't have to pay attention to it's much more complex in baseball when you're trying to you have twenty five to twenty eight moving pieces players. Who can play multiple positions end guys. Who skills complement one. Another like the number of decisions you have to make is so vast as compared to basketball where you have mid level exceptions and and trade exceptions. That are a certain amount and like. It's just easier to see the square pegs in the round pegs in the square holes in the round holes in the nba. And so i think that things shake out there much more quickly. And i don't think it's fair to compare baseball and basketball and i think it's hilarious that we're at a point where as ben was describing the thing. That was the genesis of this conversation. It's like one of the pitchers tweeted a picture of a turtle. So here we are talking about every ten minutes and so yeah like i think there's a whole bunch of about baseball and media culture. That is interesting right now. I mean the the entire economic setup is different to your professional basketball player heading to free agency. You know half your income probably doesn't even come from your team you know. You're you're getting endorsement money Addition to that the money that you can go out and get in free agency is capped so you might say well. I don't really have that many decisions to make right now. But i'm going to be fine either way because i've already made all this money and i can go out and make more money and say whereas a baseball player. Their shot at free agency is very well. Could be there one shot at. You know that. Sort of big payday where. That's not the same basketball. Mike eric saying like if there are five starters on thirty teams. That's one hundred fifty players will if you have nine starters on a baseball team. Plus five pitchers plus maybe two or three levers. That's you know three to four times as many players that you know have the starting role so you also have guys who don't make the same type of of impact on the field now if you're talking about generating interest i think that we've seen the teams that have been active in the off season. See their attendance. Bumped the next season whether you know it's the phillies. I think are are sort of the prime example from a few years ago after they were very active in the off season. And then signed. Bryce harper got a huge ticket bump. Well we're not going to be seeing that this offseason. So it's it's hard to hard to compare those those situations and you know when a player makes the major leagues. You know they're finally going to earn. You know a half. A million dollars will win a nba player. Steps the court. They're already a millionaire. And so it's it's very different financial situations over all and some of those things you just. You can't really overcome. But you know. I think setting deadlines or doing something like that just ends up worse for the players because the the teams will just put more pressure on the players to take whatever's out there right and so someone responded to syndergaards tweet and said you want a cap a salary cap and syndergaard said with the floor. Sure and this is something that we get a lot of emails about because the players association has had this slide in the sand for decades that they will just really not entertain any talk of a salary cap. And i wonder you know our e-mailers often ask. Is it time to reconsider that. Given the way things have gone given the way that caps of worked in other sports should they be more receptive to proposals. That include a salary cap assuming that they come with other protections like a salary floor so craig. Do you think that the time is ripe to talk about that or are they right to not even entertain the idea. I think there are other ways to address the issues that involved with you know getting younger players paid more. I think would do do a lot more than floor or cap and the one thing that you have to think about compared to these other leagues. Is you base that floor. And you base that cap on league-wide revenue and as we saw over the past eight months. The players owners have massively different views. About how to calculate what is baseball revenue. You know a lot of teams owned property next to the stadium. Is that baseball revenue. The owners would say no the players might say the ownership stakes that teams have in their television stations. That often mask a lot of the revenue that that teams are getting that baseball revenue at not and the fact that The owners you know are not really willing to open their books stephen to show that they're losing a lot of money. I don't know that they're going to want to open their books to show that they're making a lot of money and how much should be split with with the players and so if you can't even agree on what revenue is. You're going to have a very difficult time in dealing with. How much should the cap or floor be. And from a starting point it almost makes it makes it impossible in although the other leagues have figured it out because so much of that revenue is is just a lot easier to to ascertain you know. You've got the national tv deal. You've got local tv deal and you've got the ticket sales and that's it and so then you can come up with something that that isn't necessarily as easy to do in baseball especially coming from the background of the past thirty years or forty years or you know ever. Since the the players owners have been arguing. The owners have kept things from the players and gotten sued on it. And so i think that there's there's a level of trust that's going to be incredibly difficult to do without you know without coming together and an opening the books and i just. I really don't see that happening. So i think that you have to from the players and owners perspective you have to negotiate to make sure that you know the the younger players are getting paid more than they are right now and so then. You're a little bit less worried about how how free agency works. I don't want to attribute a position to nose syndergaard that he might not necessarily have or if he does have hasn't thought through but it just strikes me as sort of an overreaction to what is perceived to be immediate problem. I don't know enough about how. Nba owners and front office folks talk about their teams and their budget. So maybe they sound exactly like baseball executives. Do and i'm just being naive but it's not even just that there's no you know air horn and confetti although that does sound fun to have air horns and and confetti one free agents or signed but you know. I don't know many nba front offices. That talk about austin already payroll flexibility as virtue onto itself. It just seems like there. The economic issues that differentiate baseball from the other sports and then there's just the way that other sports seemed to talk about their sport. That is different than the way the baseball talks about. Its sport which is they seem excited to spend money and signed players and that varies wildly team. Two team in mlb. So i. i wonder if some of this is just apart from anything else. A a pr and presentation issue which you know at least reflect the reality of the way that teams think about constructing their payrolls and their rosters. But is kind of a bummer right. Nobody wants to get excited about payroll flexibility in atlanta. They wanna get excited about charlie morton and potentially marcelo zuma's. So maybe they should just. They should do that. Be excited about their sport. And then we don't have to have a salary cap or floor and maybe we can skip the confetti altogether. Well i think that also the those. Nba stars are vastly underpaid compared to their value. Yes that's true you know. So they don't need to talk about you know austerity or whatever because know. They're only paying the best players in the game. You know somewhere between thirty and fifty million dollars or whatever it is. i mean. i don't know what you know. Like patrick mahomes whatever deal he designed. It's he's he's more important to the chiefs then. Garrett cole is to the yankees. I can tell you that but patrick mahomes is making less i think than than garrett cole is so especially in guaranteed money. I can't remember exactly what mahomes his contract is. But you get the idea that that those guys are underpaid compared to what their value is you know. That's that's the setup that they've created an baseball hasn't really given in to the owners respect while we have you to together. I wanted to ask you about hassan. Kim who is really intriguing. Free agent who is now available. I think he is being posted on wednesday and as of thanksgiving morning teams will be free to negotiate with him during the thirty eight posting window. And craig you ranked him eighth on your top fifty free agents list and eric. You wrote the player about kim. And i am very eager to see how his skills and performance translate because looking at the stat line. He's a pretty fun and exciting player. He just turned twenty five last month. He's a shortstop and third baseman. Who's been playing in. K b o. And he's coming off his best year yet with a nine twenty one. Ps he hit thirty homers. He stole twenty three bases. He walked more than he struck out. So i like the the numbers. He is not a big guy. What do we know about his physical skills and how they might translate from kipp iota. Mlb i guess where he could potentially be fit. Because we've talked a bunch about good shortstops available via free agency or the trade market and this is another one right so let me start with the caveat right which is that the gap between creon pitching and. Mlb pitching pretty sizable. That the good pitchers in and you can go to the leaderboard on fan graphs and see their names from pro ball over here in america who typically plateaued at double in aaa or were very very injured and had intermittent big time like row wall contra and so whether he can make that leap. We just won't totally know until we see it. But if we're looking at physical skills you can absolutely play shortstop plus plus arm plus runner. He's had a couple dozen steals and homers annually over the last couple of years. he has legit. like above average pull-power all field monster all power. But the bad super-quick. He'll he will turn on and yank out my estimation like eighteen. Twenty you maybe. Twenty two bombs a year over here. The bat does translate while playing a pretty good shortstop and making an impact on the bases. His numbers are better than if you're looking at the guys who got spit out went to keio and came back and played pretty well in mlb. I stretch like eric. Themes his numbers are are better from like a strikeout rate perspective. He is not as with prone in korea as themes and some of the other. Darren rough type guys. Who went over to korean and came back. So that's a good sign. I think for him and that key roster. I watched a lot of during the course of the summer. Because they had kim who was known at the beginning of the year wants to be posted they would eventually signed addison. Russell they have junk who lee. Who's like a twenty three year. Old outfielder who i think will eventually be a better big leaguer than kim. So they're they're officers pretty talented and i really like him a whole lot. And that as the youngest asian available and one of the few shortstops is a guy who could make an impact on both sides of the ball. That yeah i think craig ranked them correctly and craig. We've seen a few guys from your list get signed but mostly on one year deals you know smiley in borton robbie ray that type of player. At what point do you think we might start to see some serious movement with the guys toward the top of the list muto springer and bauer and others of that ilk or are you thinking that this is going to wait until the eve of opening day or or spring training. You know when maybe we know that there will be at spring training and when it will be in what the circumstances of the season will be like. Should we expect any real significant activity. You know before the end of the year or do you think this will probably stretch on. I mean. I think it'll probably take take a while. You know. i think that. After the top guys i it certainly seems like the starting pitching market will pick up you know but at the top of of the market. There's only one guy is trevor bauer. So it's hard to to gauge. Exactly what he is going to want or choose free agency. And then i think the rea- mutola springer it's possible we see something happened with them after the non tender deadline. But i think it's more likely that we see teams than players waiting until there's a little bit more certainty about what type of of revenue that that teams are be are going to be bringing in. You know that. Said if the mets decide you know they went to start making some moves. Then they're going to get the market moving and it's possible that happens. Of course they also don't have a general manager so you know i think that there's there's a few things that they're waiting on. You know just to add to the notes. On on kim hughes he was a very hard guide ranked because you noted his his projections would make him the top guy and free agency. Because the the years that you're getting from getting from springer enron Are in their thirties. They're likely as good as there are ever going to be a right now. Whereas kim there's some projection. Where if he's you know somewhere close to a a three and a half four when player now that he should maintain that throughout the rest of his twenties. But like eric said you know. There's there's some question marks about exactly how how hill he'll be able to play given given the level of competition so i just sort of sort of hedged my bets. I guess a little bit on where where to put him You know and and just moved him a little bit down the list behind a guys that have had more a track record but you know in terms of upside in terms of getting the most performance. He's probably the the the best bet would be a good fit for a high variance teams sort of trying to come out of a rebuilt our baby one year. Out of the rebuild. Something like that where you need things to go right to sort of stay in contention. Free agents aren't the only thing that we rank at fan graphs and so i guess we'll close by asking you eric. We're about to start on our prospect list process. And it's going to be an unusual one for you so i wonder if you could give our listeners. A preview of some of the challenges that you've had to think through and make decisions on as you embark on this season. Okay yeah so it's three or four. Fold in some respects is easier. I can just learned anything else about this guy. This year really couldn't so Not to do anything there but in other respects it is hard because a lot of times the way i look at players is if you can see the tip of the iceberg. Then i try to project that the bodies like the base of the iceberg is good iceberg. And now everyone's iceberg is just a little bit more obscure so with no minor league season. I've got the players from the alternate sites if you are prospect nerd and have been reading all of the reports from beat writers or folks who cover prospects and they've written about the alternate sites if you can find me one instance in which the report says you know. This guy wasn't that great. Please let me know because the alternate site reports are going to be so heavily. Skewed in favor of the players because scouts weren't allowed in there and so it is the teams themselves talking about their own players. Who if you want someone to tell you about the players like you've got to ask the team as it relates to the players at the alternate sites and so what i have been working on is acquiring the data from the alternate sites which is just more objective. I don't really care about what the hitters data says because they were facing the same triple a or option year reliever type of pitching all year long. They were seeing the same half dozen pitchers all summer long and so the hitter date. I don't care about but if someone had a noticeable change in like their fastball axis or sewing much harder than that'll show in the data compared to what i have from two thousand nineteen so working on acquiring that then you have fall. Instructional league which was shorter. The quality of player there was more advanced. There was no minor league season so rather than having the international players who just signed in seventeen eighteen years old come for instructional league gets a lot of the guys who would have been in the mid minors this year so that is more or less the same. As far as running down info. it's the player. Population is different than most years. And then yeah you've got the kids who typically would have signed in july and been on prospect lists from venezuela and from the dominican republic who haven't even signed yet who are gonna sign in january so handling. Those guys is going to be different this year. Because they're not technically i'll start lists and they're not technically in the team's farm system yet so i have to wrangle with that and then the draft stuff is no cape cod league. The way the talent was spread across the country for collegiate players. Much different this year for the twenty twenty one draft than in years past teams are arguably more confident in how they feel about high school players right now than college players which is the inverse of what a typically is because the highschool showcases still went on as normal. I mean it wasn't totally normal. They were taking place in states over the covid restrictions were loose rather than in california and some of the places that they ordinarily would be. But the events still occurred all of the scouts. directors gm's who typically scout that level of player saw them. But there was no cape cod comp for that on the college side so right now teams in general are more confident in how they feel about high school prospects for the two thousand twenty one draft then college players which is an odd dynamic so Wrestling with that as we roll out. Future draft rankings. This offseason as well and yeah. It's gonna be weird in some ways. It's easier or less work than in years past. But it's definitely the most bizarre season that i've ever experienced. I haven't seen this little baseball since any calendar year since i was eighteen years old. So i'm going off of less im- person look this season than than ever before. Yeah it'll be weird but it'll get done and we'll have similar depth that the fan grass readers have been accustomed to write twelve best of luck to both of you as you navigate this offseason and try to cope with these strange circumstances. You can of. Course find craig in eric. Reading regularly at fan dot com. You can find craig on twitter at craig. J edwards can find eric on twitter at long and hagan and of course you can find his book future value co authored with kayak daniel. Thanks guys appreciate it. Thanks for having us that will do it for today and for this week. Thank for listening and as we head into the holiday. Thanks for all of your support this year whether you supported us unpatriotic or just by downloading or bite leaving us a rating review or sending us nice email or tweet or facebook comment. The show has been a source of some solace for us. And hopefully for you. And we're grateful that so many of you have stuck by us all this time. Speaking of thanks my wife brought back a book from the library this week paul harding's novel tinkers and flipped it open to the dedication page in it says for meg samuel and benjamin baseball book or at least a baseball podcast book. I was quite surprised to see our three names on there. What are the odds. But tinkers came out in two thousand nine when the two thousand ten pulitzer prize. So unless paul harding present. It was not a thank you for the podcast but going to choose to take it that way. It's actually baseball book for other reasons. To a searched inside on google books for all and i found this passage on page one. Eight one zero nine. Ezra was known throughout the county and beyond as the man to call when you needed something big pulled. This was the source of many crude jokes. The smallest of his oxen stood at just under six feet at the shoulders. Tallest over seven and a half the oxen. We're one of his two passions. The other was baseball which he followed in the papers every week nearly committing of the box scores to memory so that as he plowed his fields or whipped his team which he hired pairs from two to the full regiment of sixteen in which he himself always oversaw. He muttered batting. Averages and runs batted in earned run averages out loud to himself which overheard were simply random sounding streams of numbers the statistic that gave ezra morale the most pleasure to contemplate. Was that of the players batting averages. Every time he acquired a new ox he named it after the most recent batting champion from the american league when he cracked the whip then he could be heard. Variously harassing del. Henty elmer flick. George stone try speaker george sizzler. Harry heilmann babe. Ruth one of the three napoleon or six ty cobb's because he had more oxygen than different batting champs so that when he ran out he started back at the beginning named the animals for the different years the same players had one high napoleon. One dog. lean into it as her would yell. That's no four twenty two effort unlike other fans to the sport as retook. No pleasure in talking about the game with anyone else when his son dared. Ask how the great cobb had fared on the last road trip as recouped the boy in the ear and said the great cobb three has shut his stall full. Again you chatty pup now clean it up before you're behind with the feed definitely pulitzer prize material. You can support effectively wild on patriot going to patriots dot com slash effectively wild. The following five listeners have already signed up. Played some small month the amount to help keep the podcast going while getting themselves access to some perks. Paul barker kyle ruin. Brian boettger matt and robert riley. Thanks twelve you. You can rate review and subscribed to effectively wild on i tunes and spotify in other podcasts platforms can join our facebook group at facebook dot com slash groups such effectively wild. Keep your questions and comments for me and meghan sam coming via email at podcast of fan press dot com or b the patriot and messaging system. If you are a supporter you still have time to sign up for effectively wild secret. Santa registration closes on december. I can find the link in the facebook group or on the show page at fan graphs or in the podcast summary. In your podcast player. Thanks dylan higgins for his editing assistance. We hope you have a nice thanksgiving. If you are celebrating thanksgiving and hopefully celebrating safely. He will be back on the other side of the holiday to toss you early next week and all at once it seems so the folks throw and shoes and the rise of our answer a spot. That's just a dot com map. You're hooked you're cooked. You're caught and the tender.

baseball gary sanchez eric phillies craig twenty percent eight million dollars Mlb oakland craig edwards eric long Cj crone cesar hernandez corey dickerson kyle warburg jock peterson Hunter renfrow sixty km yankees cleveland
Effectively Wild Episode 1639: Cobra Sigh

Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast

1:21:42 hr | 9 months ago

Effectively Wild Episode 1639: Cobra Sigh

"There was an old little known and three sons off folding grown when the time came to make it as wheel only had left was little man single balding kc founded day. He called within eldest son said sunol son my race. Pray tell me what. Oh hello and welcome to episode sixteen thirty nine effectively wild grass baseball podcast brought to you by our patriot supporters. I make really and joined as always by ben. Lombardo ringer ben. How're you doing. Okay how are you doing okay. High went on a little rant recently qualifies as a brand by my standard ballpark naming in corporate sponsorships. And how. i'm just not going to bother to remember i. The new names now that was prompted by the oakland coliseum. Getting yet another new name. It's the ringcentral calcium. Now and i've already forgotten what you told me ringcentral west and i've endeavoured to forget that that is even the name of the ballpark. But there's another new name that we need to know or maybe don't need to know at all for the twenty twenty one season and it's that miller park is no longer officially miller park. Yeah american institution of miller park is now renamed american family field. Apparently this happened last year but it didn't go into effect until january. First of two thousand twenty one. So miller park is no more except in our memories and maybe in our minds and our hearts so the gist of that earlier conversation was that were not necessarily to update our mental maps of the perks. We don't have to call it by these names. If you're a broadcaster who works for the team you probably should if you're a reporter who is describing the game action and wanna be factual word games taking place. You should probably say the name. But we don't have to refer to it that way and so if it's the coliseum than tandy because you can just call it the coliseum you don't even have to mess around with the first name miller park though is one of those that its corporate sponsorship obviously and we talked about how sometimes the corporate sponsorships can be in place for so long that you get attached to them and they start to have some sentimental value which is sort of silly when you think about it but it's been park for a long time and that's one of those cases where it's a team that's named after something beer related. It's the brewers. They're literally so it made said slick it was. It was less bothersome to have to think of it as some corporate name. 'cause it worked well with the team name and miller has some local history in milwaukee so it was good synergy. No one felt icky or weird about having to call it miller park kind of course field in colorado. It fit so now it's american family field and this is one of these names in the genre of like great american ballpark or something. Where if you didn't know that it was an insurance company. You could convince yourself that it was just some sort of wholesome may of american family field. Isn't that nice great american ballpark. You don't even necessarily know that it's a company. Lots of insurance companies sponsor parks globally field. Progressive field is another one. I was just reading an article about why insurance companies advertise so much which is partly because of the competition and partly. Because you don't tend to think about your insurance company all that much and partly because just so much money in that industry that they're able to advertise a lot of reasons for it but it's nice. I guess if it is a name that sounds like it could just be a natural name unlike say guaranteed rate field which we made fun of the last time was just never sounds natural. I could talk myself into american family field. I guess but i'm so used to miller park in there. Is that kind of local connection. That i just don't think i'm going to update this in my mind. I think it's going to remain miller. Park miller park can keep getting the benefit of their old advertising money in my mind so i will say as someone who went to grad school in madison. That amfam is a local insurance company. Like they're based in wisconsin so there is a connection there which is why you they always try to put like wisconsin affiliated athletes and their commercials. You may have noticed like russell. Wilson and. jj watt both of whom played for the university of wisconsin. Madison are often in amfam commercials. But here's the thing about it. They're literally brewers. They're not the adjusters. They're not the underwriters. They're not a other insurance words. Actuarial tables action the actuaries which terrible terrible for baseball team but also one that would be very funny particularly now that injuries are ever funny but particularly if they were like injury. Prone what you say. Gumming i don't know that is criticized. Sabermetrics say that baseball's like actuarial tables now so we might as well just do it. I'm sure there's some insurance companies softball team that name themselves. The actuary said. It's probably pretty funny and cute. Almost certainly but yeah. They're they're literally. The brewers and i will say the following as a person again who went to grad school in madison. And i hope that the people who listen to this podcast who are from wisconsin will will not along in a. Oh that meg. She sure does have us pegged way and not in like meg. We should drive her from. The face of the earth can way. But when you live in. Wisconsin fundamentally alters your relationship with alcohol if you are a person who consumes it and i will say that one of the things about miller park. That was always so lovely. When i would go to games there is that they have a terrific selection of beers. You can just have good beers that they're not miller beer but you can have good beers and as a state. I don't know wisconsin should probably think about the way that it sort of its devices. Bad behavior around drinking but it is literally literally the brewers. They have a guy in a barrel. As i said last time. I don't begrudge any team for getting the money if you wanna get your twenty million dollars a year. Whatever you can get for naming the ballpark. that's fine. I guess it's nice if you don't do that if you are secure in your finances and you can just have it. Be fenway park or oriole park at camden yards or nationals park. Were kauffman stadium or angel. Stadium dodger stadium yankee stadium. Or whatever for maybe the marlins and you probably can't even get a corporate sponsorship so you just keep calling at marlins park but if you're gonna do it most teams do it. I understand it's the way the world works. It's a business and all that but it's good a few can make it fit so that i don't think about it when i you know i don't have to remember what ringcentral is or isn't and i don't have to think about american family and again there are worse names the net but there are also some names where you get the benefit of the corporate sponsorship. And you don't even notice like bush stadium. Let's say where it's like named after the anheuser busch but it's named after ocoee pusher whoever was the owner of the cardinals who also controlled the beer company. And then you just kind of get both at the same time or really wrigley field which is still named rick field. Even though the team is no longer owned by the wrigley's and i guess wrigley gum has just been getting free. Advertising for the last Many years because the stadium has been named wrigley field. I almost a century at this point and it was named after the owner wrigley but the owner wrigley also owned the gump company. And now it's just wrigley field and it's been sort of a touchy subject with rickets is who will seem to stop at nothing to maximize their profits. Will they ever change the name. Will they get some other company to sponsor it and that it would seem like sacrilege if you were to change the name. Ricky field and some people have floated. The idea that may be wrigley. The company should consider paying something for it like anheuser. Busch does with the stadium. Now that bush longer owns the cardinals. But why would they. Because they're getting it for free so if they don't have to. I'm sure they're happy to just have the brand awareness. It's not even. Like i think of the gun when i think of wrigley field so i. I don't know how much value there actually getting out of that. It's not like orbit field or some wrigley gum brand or something but these things just get set in stone for so long that you stop even thinking of them as connected to some corporate entity but then the name changes and we are forced to whether we actually want to call it that thing. But we don't have to. It can be miller park in our minds. Forevermore if we wanted to be they have a full and a partial barrowman that is how committed to the barrel. Man they are. They have a wheat ball. They have a ball the seams of which are a little wheat stocks. Like you would use for making beer because they are brewers yup yup and the so upset adding. Did you see just to put a final little not on our Sponsorship talk did you see that the nhl has sold the naming rights to its divisions. No it did not. Apparently that is the thing that they did. And i wish they would stop it because mlb is gonna look around and go. Why haven't we done that. No no not that. The mlb divisions have always made sense geographically. Like you know. They're west central east. I like having it that way. But the teams have not always really matched up with the names of the divisions. But i still like having it. That way so please. No they'll be did not get any ideas. I mean the the uniform advertising is coming for. Mlb you've already got the wishes on there. And i'm sure there will be more as there has been another sports and i've kind of come to terms with that. I'm not really a uniform fundamentalist. I don't pay that much attention to uniforms compared to many others. So that's fine. But i would sort of If we had to say like the the al east sponsored bay tucson or whatever the the al camping world. what would we even call them reading that. Probably it might just be for the twenty twenty one season for the nhl because they had to realign their divisions because of covid but they are the honda west division the scotia north division the discover central division and the mass mutual east division. Well it's terrible. Yeah that's not great. That is not great. we don't have to. We don't have to name. All the stuff is all i'm saying like i think that we have talked about this before. There are any number of reasons why i do not engage in fiction. Writing and one of them is that. I think when you you get to a point where you have to start coming up with fake nouns right and that that's impossible. You always sound ridiculous it is. It is why a lot of science fiction writing doesn't end up working and so we can just not name things. I'm officially advocating for less description. Which is a weird thing for an editor to to to do. But here i am. Let's not descriptive. It doesn't help does picture of the conference the division oh it's the honda west division will now. I understand no west really. Does all the work there. So i think that's all we need. Thank you all right. Well well we're on the subject of milwaukee. I wanted to briefly. Bring up a player who broke into the big leagues with milwaukee phil niekro the late phil niekro who passed away recently and f. e. rhoda a nice remembrance of him for fan graphs and we talked about him briefly. Wouldn't jay was on the podcast. But i was just reading the latest issue of craig wright's great newsletter pages from baseball's past which you can find at baseball's past dot com. This is not spun con. Although i do plug it repeatedly. It's just really good at. I've been subscribing to it for well and i always learn a lot and one thing i wear this week was negroes origin story and i was aware that he had an unusual path to the majors that he didn't establish himself as a big leaguer as starter at least until his age twenty eight season and then of course he went on to throw more innings than any other pitcher in the light ball era it's an improbable path. And he pitched until he was forty eight and one interesting point that i heard steve goldman raise on the infinite inning. Podcast recently as you kind of wonder like what did in phil nikos career in the end because he was like a league average pitcher at age forty six basically a league average pitcher at age forty seven better than that at age forty five and then suddenly at age forty eight he kinda fell off the table and and was not good at all and that was it and you have to wonder like what was it from age. Forty seven to forty eight. Something in phil niekro. That said. i can't do this anymore. I can't go out there and throw this knuckleball anymore. Wizard an injury was there some. Us density that just finally cracked and said h forty seven. Fine age forty eight. No that is a year to fire for us. So so i'd be curious about that but i am more interested at the moment in the beginning of his career and why it took him so long to establish himself and obviously it was because he was a a knuckleballer and they always sort of have an uphill climb in convincing people that they're good but in this case it was really improbable that he made it at all and as craig rates it was one of the most touch and go unlikely beginnings to a hall of fame career in the history of the game and of course it depended on the knuckleball and learned the knuckleball from his father who was a coal miner but also played baseball on the side locally and he was a good pitcher but then he hurt his arm and he picked up the knuckleball from the catcher on his local team. Who had been good enough to be in the minors. And he knew how to knuckleball so he passed it along to nico's father and then he passed it along to his sons and so the really interesting thing is that even with the knuckleball. Negro almost didn't make it joe niekro. His brother was of a conventional pitcher in a top prospect. And he threw hard but phil niekro had the knuckle under and so. I'll read from craig. I scouts have never been attracted to knuckleball pitchers and no big league. Organization was interested niekro when he came out of high school. He kept pitching in local games and at age. Nineteen attended a tryout. Camp put on by the milwaukee braves. They decided to give him a try having him report to a class. D league the neck spring. Fill got off to a disastrous start. The more experienced batters did not chase his knuckleball like the high school hitters had he walked tons of batters and would also fall behind in the count throw his mediocre fastball and get knocked over the lot after ten games as yarra was seven point four six and he was told he was being released to make room for a new player. Phil literally begged for a second chance and the braves gave him a break and set them to the absolute lowest rung on their minor league ladder the short season nebraska state league. He did well enough that the old catcher birdie tablets fought to keep him around when most of the braves for an office were ready to cut him loose and one problem. Evidently was that at that time the most famous was hoyt wilhelm and because he was a relief that evidently led to negro being typecast as a reliever and quite wilhelm had worked as a starter in the minors and so that helped him refine his knuckleball but niekro was just pushed into the reliever ox right away and so he didn't get enough innings to make his knuckleball good and so he was just sort of a a non prospect who would have been cut if not for tablets. No other team was interested in him. And i was thinking about this. In the context of today's minor league downsizing because phil niekro needed that absolute last rung on the minor league ladder to keep his career going. And so i looked up in nineteen fifty nine. That was the year that he first pitched in the minors. Milwaukee had thirteen affiliates. At that time this was not necessarily the peak of huge minor league systems. But there were at least on the high end more minor league affiliates than you have today or you had even prior to the downsizing so milwaukee was tied for the most in the majors with the dodgers and the cardinals with thirteen and if they had had twelve even negro probably would have been cut and maybe he would have just gone back to the coal nine like his dad and maybe played locally but that might have very well been it for his career so he needed fat bottom rung. He needed that short season. Nebraska state league affiliate and. You have to wonder how many potential major league players maybe even how many potential great players will not get a chance when you've cut minor league teams and i'm not saying that you should never downsize the miners because there could be a phil niekro in there. You know once in a decade or many decades because I mean we could just say well. You should have an unlimited number of minor league affiliates. And we'll all get to be professional baseball players. That would be nice. You have to draw the line somewhere. I wonder how many minor league affiliates you'd have to have before i would get signed would probably be more than i would want to think about but just saying you have to draw the line somewhere but wherever you dry it you are probably going to leave someone out and yeah most low level minor leaguers are just kind of the the cannon fodder for the prospects you know they're just there to provide competition and the vast majority of them don't make it and so it's less of a tragedy for them perhaps although it's still nice to have those memories and still get to say you were basically ballplayer but there will be the occasional negro or at least the occasional. Good or great player. Who doesn't make it because there will be fewer minor league teams. and so because niko got that lifeline. He got to keep pitching. He got to stay for another year and then he was in the army. He played winter ball and he worked as a starter and suddenly he had a better feel for his knuckleball and he came back and he impressed milwaukee and spring training and he made the team and us kind of on and off the big league roster for a few years until finally he broke through as starter in nineteen sixty seven then the rest is history but if not for that short season league that very well might have been it for phil niekro and we would not know him or be talking about him now. I think he's a really interesting example of this. Not only because of how long it took him to break in and then how long he played but like you know he's knuckleballer so he's an odd profile and surveys like a perfect encapsulation of the thing that i really well not the thing i worry about but one of the things i worry about. With reduction of the myers which is not just that we are going to miss out on some really good and fun careers or that really. Does bum me out. And i worry about who not only in a very practical real sense when we look at the rosters that are being cut down now but who in the future. That might exclude demographically. But i also you know. I think baseball is. Its most fun when it doesn't look entirely the same player to player and we talked about this with jj cooper when he was on the show. But if you have fewer roster spots you're just a lot less likely as an organization to kinda take a flyer on a guy who doesn't fit a conventional profile and i think that we've seen teams that have had a lot of success being willing to view those categories is a little bit squishy and try a guys in different spots. And see if there's some you know multi-positional fit that works or or what have you so. I think that baseball is the most interesting when it is diverse in a multitude of ways. And so i just. I agree with you. I worry about who were gonna miss out on. And what kinds of players we might find room for as we continue to refine our understanding of what plays at the major league level and what player development can unlock guys. And so that. Don't that would be a real shame because i think that that's one of the places where a game that we i think. We rightly view as somewhat figured out based on the advances. The last twenty years still has a lot of potential to surprise and it would be. It would be a bummer if we were to lose that because that makes it fun. Yeah and the knuckleball is sort of on life support at this point there's various times when the knuckle has been near extinction and it's bounced back but right now we're kind of low tide for the knuckleball and i still have hope that it could bounce back. I wrote an article little more than a year ago about where there might be some hope for the nepal and how some pictures are starting to use high speed cameras and those sorts of modern tools to find their knuckles. And how maybe robot ups and robot strike zones could actually be beneficial for knuckleball pitchers potentially so a link to that if people are interested in that. But yeah it's it's true that if you only have a certain number of roster spots and knuckleballer comes along and you think well he's long shot or you know maybe he'll get things together in five years but i just don't have time or or space to carry him until he figures it out than he might. Just knock get that shot and you know maybe you can go to any ball or something and keep your career live but not everyone is willing or able to do that. So yeah again. It's a complicated issue. And we talked to her for a long time at that episode. Sixteen twenty eight. And they're all sorts of pluses and minuses. And it's hard to say a blanket. This is bad or this is good. It's some good things and some bad things and i don't think the history of film nico Necessarily decisive either way. And they're already fewer affiliates than there were when phil niekro was playing so he might not have even made it in twenty nine hundred if he had been around. But it's just the we won't know which players were missing out on you know if only niekro hadn't made it if he had gotten cut then we would not be well melting the loss of phil nikos career. 'cause we just never would have even been aware of it so we won't be actively aware of what we're missing but will know that we're probably missing something or someone you know. Someone didn't get to fulfill that dream and every once in a while it might be a great player who goes on to have a health in career so interesting stuff that negro so thanks to craig for bringing that to my attention. I just continue to love that. He threw more than three hundred innings. Three years in a row from seventy seven seventy nine. It's it's unreal. And he bookended those three three hundred plus inning seasons with with seasons where he threw at least two hundred and seventy innings. Just five five thousand four hundred and four and a third innings just. It's just remarkable and pitch for so long that he has some of the all time best baseball cards because he's in his late forties but he looks like he could be in his sixties or something. So like if i if i see i mean he went to gray or white pretty young and so sometimes i'll see an image of him like throwing at an old timers day or something and is that will stairs. They just his career because it's almost indistinguishable so we definitely need more like grandpa's people who either are or could plausibly pass for grandfather's not enough of those in today's game. Yeah and just like you know what happens if what happens if they don't find catcher who can catch his knuckleball right. Yeah i like. What if he's just because that was part of the problem too they just didn't atlanta justin have anyone on staff who could handle the knuckleball and then they did and they're like. Oh okay i still think we need like a knuckleball academy royals academy style of it. This is something that gets brought up from time to time. And some teams have experimented with the concept. But i would still like to see some team. Make a concerted efforts to just churn out knuckle hours. You'd think like in a game where everyone's throwing hundred and nasty sliders and everything like even just having the the differential liked the rarer the pitches the weirder. It is the more of an outlier. As maybe the harder it would be to hit. So i hope that we see or knuckle boss great. I also wanted to mention a post. That dense abort ski wrote for you at this week about the padres their updated projections so we talked last week about the patriots trades. And how they stack up to the dodgers. Now i asked you think they could actually catch the dodgers. This is going to be an exciting race. That was clear. Dan rea ran the numbers. And it's maybe even more exciting than i realized that it was because zips at the padres as the second best team in the nfl before the recent trades and signings but there was a gap between the dodgers and padres now according to dan's current figures. And of course it is still early january and their many moves to be made and here a lot of free agent still left to be signed and playing time is hard to parcel out in early january but according to the current projections the patriots are protected for ninety eight wins and the dodgers are also projected for ninety eight wins. How about that and and wrote a hundred ninety. Six winds are the most zips has ever projected for the top two teams in a division. Combine that with the closeness of the projections. You need a decimal point to separate the two teams in the standings. And i don't think it's a stretch to say that this is the best divisional race zips has ever projected going on two decades of prognostications or at least i guess the the top two teams in division so i maybe under sold this if anything i figured okay. The padres have definitely narrowed the gap year. They've brought it to the point. Where if things go right for them things. Go wrong for the dodgers. They could definitely you conceivably catch them but according to the true talent projections right now and dens playing time assumptions. It might be even closer than that one of the great joys of being an assigning editor is that you get to bother people to answer questions for you. They really keen to know. So i went to dan. I was like dan we should. You should redo the padres projection. Gestion please please do that. Because i really wanna know how close it is. And he's like what if i just redid the whole. Nfl west. and i was like. Oh dan that's why you're the best so Yeah it's it's a very exciting thing in the midst of you know an offseason that has been slow and plotting. And that has dan notes a number of teams that have basically announced their fan bases. Like the baseball you're gonna watch next. Year is going to be worse than the baseball. You watched last year to see a team. That's like no we. We see the world the reigning world series champ that consensus best team in baseball. And we we wanna take a run at them and to be as you noted. There's a lot left to be done. And the dodgers are now in the position of being able to respond to what san diego has done. And there's always the lingering looming threat of injury and all sorts of stuff but for them to go into the early part of the new year. Saying no we're we're neck and neck is is just very exciting so i can't wait to see how it plays out i know. Yeah and this relies in part on a very rosy projection for hassan. Kim yes the projection that zips has regenerated for a player from the b o and he's projected as basically a four player per year for the next several seasons would make him an absolute bargain if that turns out to be the case for what they're paying him and would make be questioned whether wasn't more interest in him. And you know with a player coming over from any other league. There's always going to be a little less that we know and and it's harder to translate the stats but there have been more players coming from their recently. So there's more for the system to go on and it really likes kevin. Why wouldn't it based on his numbers and his youth and all of that. But that's even better than i was expecting so if you think that's a little too optimistic and that there might be more growing pains than maybe you can push them down. Push the padres down a little bit but the projections for blake snell and yu darvish seem quite conservative. Sips has the as three wind players basically because pretty low innings estimates. The point is. It's really close. So i am pretty hyped for that race this year. And it's not just this year either. Because dan notes in his post most of the padres core contributors are under their control through at least twenty twenty three and because a lot of their players are young and still in their pre arbitration years. They still have room to maneuver financially. They're more than fifty million dollars a year from the first luxury tax threshold this year. So it just goes to show what you can accomplish if you are willing to be aggressive especially while lots of other teams are not being aggressive at all. You can make major waves and of course. The dodgers are set up really well long-term to yeah it's gonna be really exciting and cash and you have good broadcast booths between the two of them. All speaking of good broadcast booth says going to bring to cause friend of the show. Shabby has a new job or or has added a job to his staple of jobs and he is going to be the new cubs play by play man replacing len kasper on tv. And teaming up with jim shays and men. Chicago is just hogging all the great broadcasters. At this point. I've been to have. We already talked about having jason eddie and len kasper calling games for the same team now. You have boob replacing casper which like there aren't many broadcasters who i would say you could lose lend casper and not lose a whole lot but going from casper tabuk those her to really great broadcasters. The cubs fence will be happy with so been talking about the cubs losing players and personnel. So far this winter at least now they have actually added someone and added someone could so congrats to boo and congrats to cubs fan. Who get to listen to and it seems like from the press release. he's still going to have some involvement with espn so he will not be leaving the national stage either. I don't know if he'll be calling as many games. I guess it would be hard to do that because he was the sunday night. Baseball radio voice and also wednesday night. Baseball person for espn. But he's still going to be doing. Some of that and bouc has called games for a team before i think he was the marlins radio play by play man years ago and i think he was he was also with atlanta for a few years on tv so this is not new for him necessarily. But it's maybe a higher profile local and if people are not already aware of how good burgas i they will be now. I was thinking about whether a local broadcasting gig or a national broadcasting gig leads to more appreciation for a broadcasters talents. And i think i mean you get more renown maybe if you are a national broadcaster but when it comes to having an affectionate audience i think having that local audience that gets to hear you every single day as opposed to just you know. You're you're bouncing from team to team and kind of parachuting in and even if you're good like boob says i think people just you know they like the people here every day and so. I don't hear the complaints about that. I hear about joe bacher or in the past. You know tim carver or whomever. And i think jo pack his is good. I quite enjoyed joe. Buck but i get. Why and and talk every postseason about why suddenly everyone's complaining about broadcasters and it's partly because you're pitching your broadcast to that national audience and ab more of a mainstream casual audience but it's also just like. Hey i listen to these people all season long and suddenly you're taking them away and you're making me. Listen to this impostor. This is not my real dad. Who is this person. So i hope go here. Yeah right slide. In in october and act like you've been here all year so who will have that national presence and also local presence. I hope that leads to even greater appreciation for how good he is at the. Yes there have been just so many weeks that start with bad news in the in the recent going and. I think that you'd be hard pressed to find anyone in the industry where there's just more universal affection for him than there is for boob so i'm very excited for him. Even if i resent strongly the fact that i am now going to be motivated to watch the cubs. Twenty twenty one yeah. They're not giving him any more reasons to watch them but they are giving you this one. At least we'll see how good the baseball is. But at least he'll be fun to listen to. So there's that yeah i think the cubs fans are in for a real treat. I think that one of the things. That often motivates people to complain about national broadcasters and. I don't think that this is true of joe. Buckle who it might be true of his frequent baseball broadcast partner is that they just don't seem to have the same not only affection for the home nine but just for baseball generally and remove and they're not tied to any particular team and often they call sports in addition to baseball and i think that one of the things that really sets buca part and we saw this on his radio broadcasts and we saw this when he called. Keep your games is just like he is. He is interested in the game and inquisitive about it and he really likes it. And i think that that isn't enough to have a good broadcast but i think that it is necessary to a good broadcast and so bringing that energy to That booth not that it was lacking before as you noted 'cause gosh there was a lot a lot of talent to be had there but it's he is a very fitting replacement for for landon. I think will be a really excellent edition so you can watch the cubs. Yeah just stacked broadcast booths in that city the season. And and yeah. I mean maybe we're predisposed to like the analytically inclined. Sort you know. Like google and bonetti end casper and those are people who may be. We've talked to or have had on the show or listened to the show and have some kind of awareness of her personal relationship with and went to the high school. That i did. But it's not just that i think it's also valuable at times to have a former player in the booth who can give you that perspective but not if it's just the wrote you know complaining about how things are good as they were back in their day or just giving you the same standards analysis that you're accustomed to players giving in that you can just hear before they even say it and i think steve stone inch into shays are just good at that too so they give you that former player former pitcher perspective but not in the very predictable and kind of boring way. So i think they're very good partners for that kind of you know analytically inclined type of broadcasters. It's great to have both of those perspectives in the same booth. If you can do it and if you can do it without having it be like a you know brian. Kenny vs harold reynolds like were of the nerds versus the old school types. You know but like the to actually getting along and complementing each other and adding to each other's understanding of and appreciation for the game. I think both of those booths will have that. So that's great. I am not a fan of unnecessary antagonism in my baseball experience. The game lends itself to that. Just fine on its own. I'm going to make a statement that's gonna make you feel bad because you don't have siblings but it's like do what you didn't get enough of this when you were fighting with your siblings as a come on that actually makes me feel better about not having some welcome van you one other thing. I wanted to bring up road article at the athletic about the absence of in game. Video in twenty twenty. Which is something. I was kind of curious about and it would come up every now and then and you would hear players talking about it but it was just sort of lost in everything else. That was different about the twenty twenty. Mlp season and twenty twenty in general but there is no access to in game video this year and i guess partly maybe it was response to the sign stealing scandal and some restrictions being put in place there but i think mostly it was because of the covid protocols and not wanting to expose those personnel to the players and have them wondering in and out i think that was at least the stated reason for it maybe it was partly sign stealing blowback related but the point is for the first time in a while players could not just go into the video room during games and watch the pitcher or watch their previous plate appearance or whatever and i assume they still had access to like ipad in the dugout where they're able to see some of that video scouting stuff but they weren't able to see things broken down almost immediately the way that they've been accustomed to recently and there have been some players who have attributed some struggles to that and i wonder whether you find that to be convincing or or plausible so one player who said that in september was heavy bias who had allows lousy season at the plate and he said to be honest. It sucks and make my adjustments during the game. I watch my swing. I watch where the ball was where the contact was. I'm really mad. we don't have it. I know a lot of players are struggling to. A lot of stars are struggling. I'm just one more but the way that it is is not the way we play baseball. I need video. I need video to make adjustments during the game and can also heard either bio sayer or someone else suggest about bias that maybe he feeds off the enthusiasm of the crowd and that that's why he wasn't playing well so there were multiple reasons advanced for why was not playing well but he attributed it at least in part to the lack of in game video. And i believe josh bell who was just traded to the nationals. He's coming off a down year. Where a lot of the changes that he seemed to make in twenty nineteen just fell apart and he kind of went back to being a ground ball guy and not getting the lift and the power that he had had in twenty nineteen when i saw tweet the other day by way rick who writes about the nationals. He said josh bell says twenty twenty. He fell into a pattern of jumping towards the ball and lean too far into his front side at the plate he also attributed his struggles to being unable to use in game. Video and matt says something. Mlb took away last season following the astros scandal though. I don't know if that that was the sole reason. Or a reason. And you know suggests that maybe it was an issue with christian yelich as well who is known to rely on those sorts of breakdowns. And you know looks into it. And he makes the point that if it did affect people at it doesn't really seem to have cratered offense league-wide or anything. He does point out that the third time through the order penalty was at least on the surface smaller than it had been in recent years but that that could be just because it's distorted by the fact that pitchers were not going into games in two thousand twenty especially and so the pitchers who were going deep into games. Were disproportionately really good pitchers and so if you just look at like the league production on the third time through the order it might be artificially depressed by the fact that you have a better group of pitchers so at maybe not the the best way to do that. Analysis to see if there was a smaller effect but he quotes a a bunch of other anonymous hitters. He talked to who said yeah. I like looking at the video but it seems like a lot of them. Say i just use it to sort of confirm what i was already thinking or a look to see if that ball that i thought was all was actually a ball or was it a strike or you know maybe they just want to see what they did last time or or look at mechanics or that kind of thing so you know. This is obviously not been a permanent part of baseball. It's not like going back. Decades had access to this or cared to have access to this. So it's fairly recent that everyone's using it in games and so if someone comes to you and says Hey i'm mr free agent and i'm coming off a down year and says it's because i couldn't look at in game video next year i will be able to look at in game therefore you should sign me because i will bounce back to my previous levels. Are you buying it. I'm trying to think which which aspect of a particular at bat would be most useful to see in real time. That would make me believe it's true. I don't have a hard time believing that it has some effect right that it has some impact. But i'm trying to decide. What part of it i imagine having the most consistent effect and i i wonder if it's really as simple as having a better visualization of the empire strikes on any given night. I mean i think that there is undoubtedly some benefit to being able to see the the movement of a of a pitcher's pitches on any given night and sort of how he's you know where he's placing his lider relatives relatives komo relative news festival and all of that but i wonder if the thing that you might have the hardest time being able to consistently identify yourself or describe to other players would be the zone. I don't know yeah. Yeah you know suggests that maybe it would be useful mechanically if you're someone like yell at your bias. Who has a big leg kick like right. There might be a timing issue. There would wanna see was too early was too late so i could see that being a factor i think in the past of course players would just try to pick these things up by talking to each other or looking at the camera what they saw the plate and they still do that and they probably had to rely on that more in twenty twenty and like before the game. You can still watch the video you want of the pitcher and then once you've seen the pitcher then that's in your mental database. You can watch with that pitchers doing to your teammates. And so there's a lot there that you can just see and of course if it is a mechanical issue you could just check video after the game and maybe it doesn't help you in your last at bat or something but you can still fix whatever ails you before the next game so like i don't know i i could see how it could become kind of a crutch like if you're used to having this than you depend on it and maybe you would be a little less observant in the game. 'cause you know you can just go back and look at the video and maybe get even better angle on it in some cases or it could just be a security blanket kind of thing where you know it's there you know you can look and maybe that reassures you mentally and it's helpful of course to feel secure and so maybe even if it's not helping you that much if there's some kind of placebo effect where you feel more prepared than it might help you more than like you know not even because it's helping you so much with mechanics or scouting but just because you feel better when go up to the plate so you could see how like if you're someone who does rely on that than to have it taken away suddenly might be a bit jarring but still like i kinda have to question like what's the magnitude of the change like are we saying that heavy bias had a bad year solely because of this that he go from a one fourteen. Wrc plus fifty seven wrc plus because this did his dabid fall. Eighty points because of this or was it just that that happened and this was also something that was happening so like i can buy for particular players perhaps it may have been a bigger issue than for others and i could see it having some effect but i guess i have a hard time imagining that. It could be the difference between a good year. A badger let's say rate unlike. What was his reason for a below average. Wc plus in two thousand sixteen right so there's started using the video. Then i don't know i think that you've probably hit on it. Which is that. it has some effect. The magnitude of the effect is probably relatively small and and probably varies player to player. I would imagine that some of it might depend on how how dependent you are dependents. Probably the wrong word but used to that as a tool as a player that you are perhaps it has something to do with sort of how either how good or how ready to listen to the other resources you have around you. You are in any given moment because it's not as if you know if you go up and you have a bad at bat and then you come back to the bench. You know presumably. There's like maybe the hidden coaches like. Hey i noticed you're doing this thing. Ramle your your load is different. The timing mechanisms use different. Like whatever like there are any number of things that they might be able to notice even if they don't have a perfect sort of centerfield view of you in in the batter's box so it might some of it might depend on how. How effective your. Your teammates or coaches are at noticing. Those small minute changes in game. Or how willing you are to listen to those people. And i don't say that to like impugn havi by as like i have no idea but i'm just thinking of other things that might contribute to you. Being able to make the sort of in game adjustments this is not the only mechanism guys have. It's really common for you to see at somebody if a player like you know flails some really nasty breaking stuff. It's not unusual for you to see him as he retreats back to the dugout. Talk to the person in the on-deck circle about like how he seeing that pitch move right. So there are other mechanisms. That players have but i think that i would not have a hard time believing that guys who are used to a routine and find that consistency is sort of instrumental to their process believing to have a very significant impact. Even if it's sort of marginal in it's true effects right yeah and especially if you happen to have a bad year apps for unrelated reasons you might just tell yourself that was why i mean it might be good to play it on that just to kind of have more confidence going into the next season. I mean if there were some other underlying issue than it would probably be better to address that. But you know if you just had a lousy couple months. Senate was randomness or bad luck. Or whatever than if you just tell yourself. Oh it's because of enga- video than as long as you have in game video in the future. I don't know if you're a pro athlete and you're doing this difficult high-pressure job sometimes you have to trick yourself into things. It's helpful to think of it in a certain frame which may or may not reflect reality but even like umpires. You're talking about how it might be useful to see how it appears collins and that's true but of course teams get empire scouting reports two on tendencies is someone who has a pig zone or a small zone or does he tend to call strikes here there and it might differ on any individual day again you could maybe pick that up just from observation or ask your catcher. You know what calls are you getting or not getting and so when guys go back to the video room to check whether a call was correct or not often. They're just looking for vindication freight you know. They didn't like call and they want to be proved right. And maybe they'll say something next time there at the plate or maybe they won't because the empire won't like that but we still be secure in the knowledge that they were right in the emperor's wrong and there might be some value to that to seeing. What's this pitcher striker. not in. how is he calling pitches on this day but again like there's so much other information and so many other ways to access most of that information that i can't imagine it being debilitating if you didn't have that so i don't know it's It's an interesting question. And i assume that might be in came video again in twenty twenty one. Yeah but really. We don't know what will be happening. It's like we talked last time about how it seems increasingly likely that the season will start on time. But they're still so much we don't know about what the season will look like and hopefully the fact that. Mlb has kind of conceded. Now that pandemic permitting the plan to start on the day that it's supposed to start. Maybe that means they can move onto. Okay what will this season actually look like because all that stuff is still up in the air. I mean we're six weeks away from spring training or less right now and for one thing. Most of the free agent signings haven't happened not a single one of mlb tremors top fifteen free agents. This winter has signed only three of the top thirty. Have ten at the top fifty but beyond that. We still don't know if there's going to be at the h. In the national league we still don't know what the playoff for mattis. How many playoff teams are there. I don't know it seems like something that you might wanna know if you're a team that was something trust right now like my son knows you've run a baseball website bad too. I'm sure that is also a consideration of the managing editors so. Yeah i mean when when all of this was undecided and twenty twenty it was obviously understandable because everything was up in the air and seat of their pants and so it was sort of silly and maybe took away a little bit from the wichita mri of the season at times when lick the playoff format was announced just before the season started or the playoffs schedule was announced after the trade deadline. All these things were just being decided in the middle of the season essentially as a season starting but at least at that point well when you found out about the expanded playoffs it was like well the offseasons over so teams did what they did. I mean yes it might have been nice for them to know what the playoff format would be but at least now like they're locked in. They can't really do anything different with the playoffs schedule. Yeah maybe if they had known before the trade deadline some teams may have made moves in anticipation of not having those off days in october. So that was one of those things where some teams were sort of thrown for a loop and abm teams benefited. Some teams were harmed by that. But now i mean teams are still constructing their rosters and it really make a difference is there's gonna be ten playoff teams or sixteen or some number in between that or how bigger the roster's going to be or the weird rules from last year. Still going to be in place. Are we sticking with all of that or not and we still don't know and i guess we're still making allowances for that because they're still so much we don't know about the world and what it'll look like a few months from now but really seems like about time to start figuring out you know figure figure that the season is going to start and then decide what it's actually going to look like not for the managing editors but For them to yet for us to. I find myself constantly in a state of gimme that lately vaccine schedule whether there'll be a d. h. All sorts of things. That i want that are just out of reach ben and they'll resolve themselves in time. I understand that there are other people and more pressing priorities ahead of them. But it doesn't slack my desire to sit here in my house haircut. Ben you haven't had a public haircut yet. No i am. I am booked for a public haircut. Sound so trampling meet my. I'm meeting sweeney todd or something and it's gonna feel great but no. I have not had a haircut since this all started and ben it is bad. Well it also doesn't really matter. I guess because seeing you really. I feel like my split ends are developing their own language. Yeah i guess. We've all become more comfortable with uncertainty. Were or if not more comfortable with at least accustomed to resign to. I mean in what other winter would there be this much uncertainty about just like the basic structure of becoming season. And we're all just like we don't really know how many players are going to be to a team. Her what positions they will or won't play or like how many teams will make the playoffs. I'm sure they'll figure that out at some point. So i don't want to downplay the extent to which this is just like a true thing so i don't want to call it an excuse but i i find it very interesting. I don't know what it says. Anything because like we wanna try to read into tea leaves when there's something there but if i were professional baseball player i had struggled this year. I find it really interesting. That the the the instinct appears to be for many of these guys to look for a baseball related reason for their struggle and not to just like gesture around them and say i don't know man pandemic like it crushed my spirit every day and i didn't hit. Well that's what i would say. Be like you know how. There's a pandemic. Yeah i i know two. And so let's my stat line. Congratulations to make. Yeah that that's just like players. Don't wanna make excuses or they're still some sort of stigma about i don't know anxiety or mental health matters wanting to cop to but you'd think if they ever could like twenty twenty a year when everyone was dealing with that and everyone would understand would be the time to do that but yet they they probably don't want to suggest that they don't have like the the mental strength to just a plow through. The pandemic can be unaffected by virus that is shutting down the entire country. It's okay if that bothered you. But maybe it's not macho or at least wouldn't be perceived that way i imagine it some of that. I imagine that some of them are probably aware that like on a relative basis. And i hope that this kind of relativistic accounting falls out of fashion because it is both i understand it's necessity because it is. It is good to to be grateful for what you have and to understand your plight relative to others but also it's like what matters to you matters to you and there's no getting around that you just have to live in your own head every day but i imagine some of it is like understanding that relative to a great many people they escaped unscathed and and i bet for a lot of them. There is a baseball reason that they had a bad year. And so it is not you know. It is not offering a false excuse to say this where i think i had a down season but also like a global pandemic and there was a lot of other stuff besides that. So it's just it's an. It's an interesting thing. I don't think that it's necessarily telling. And i don't mean it as like an admonishment that they should attribute it to something that isn't sort of consistent with their own lived experience but it is. It is an interesting business for musil. All right so maybe the last thing we can do here. We wanted to get to some emails. And i don't know if we will but we will get to this which is at least prompted by an email so we always like it when there's a baseball cameo in some sort of popular media baseball scene in a movie in a tv show in book. Whatever that is not ostensibly a baseball movie or show or book and often we find holes to poke in that scene. Something about it that. The disrupts are suspensions of disbelief and as baseball connoisseurs. We recognize that. There's something off here. So we got an email from aaron a patriotic supporter. And he says baseball on tv. Show once again. There's a baseball game that plays a part in a television show that needs someone to vet it. Prior to releasing it. It is from the netflix show. Copay season three episode. One so says is actually timely because when i went to my net flicks home screen. It informed me that cobra. Kai is the number one show in the united states today. So we're very topical timely. Today i have not actually watched cobra kai not a minute of it now. Well now i have a couple minutes. But yeah i have not seen cobra kai although i understand that it is quite good and people like it and perhaps i will watch it one day but for those who don't know it is the successor series to the karate kid movies and it is just on its third season. Its third season. Just came out on netflix. End so aaron sent us. The and i made a little clip which i will link to on the show page so that everyone can check it out or you can just go to netflixif and it's right from the beginning of the season. Three premiere just a couple minutes into the episode. I will play a quick clip to set this up here at west valley. Doctors say his prognosis. Watch i'm sorry and realize tv homey jj by the bottom of the night you want to see the news ticker phone. Phone threw it away based pasta. When's the last time you shower goto you smell like a piece of dog shit to dump change it back real people wanna watch the game. They don't give a shit about no weather reports and coma mccain on okay so in this scene johnny lawrence whom you may remember from the credit kid films. Also in cobra kai as is ralph macho. He walks into a bar and he is watching a news story. This is supposed to be the young person from the karate kid movies. Well he's no longer. A young person. Looks terrible come. He has stumbled onto hard times. Ben well i won't show honey septa that you said that. I think he's meant to to look like he is in some amount of distress in this club. Yes that is true. He's having a hard time suffering some trauma here which we are not aware of just walked to the series without any of the context. But he's edit bauer he's drinking. He's watching a news report on tv and then two other guys come up to him and their dodgers fans in this bar and they don't wanna watch the news so they just change the channel to a game that is supposedly a dodgers giants game. And it's the bottom of the ninth so these bar patrons want to see the game here and so there are two quick clips from this game on the tv that are shown in the show and the score bug in the bottom right is consistent with the commentary here and it. It says initially that the scores to one giants. And it's the bottom of the night then. There's a runner on third. And then we see the. There's hit it seems like we don't see the runner but it looks like there's a base hit and the runner on third is going to score and tie the game and then there's a walk off and the game is over and the dodgers win and there are a number of issues here which aaron points out in some cases so the first thing is that this is very clearly not a dodgers giants. Game for the. They're showing for one thing. As paul mcchord pointed out in our facebook group using the baseball reference stat head event finder. There's only one game in which a to to walk off solo. Homer was hit by la as the home team over san francisco. That was on june. Twenty second nineteen seventy four. This clip clearly doesn't come from june twenty second nineteen seventy four. it looks pretty contemporary. Of course it could be a fictional game using real footage but it does not appear to be real footage of the dodgers and chance either for one thing. It looks like they're only two empires at the game but more important than that. This is not dodgers stadium. This is not even the dodgers spring training park. And i was trying to figure out where this is where this game is taking place and i asked a few people and it was inconclusive. So i put it to the effectively wild hive mind which very rarely fails me and i posted a few still images in the facebook group and some sloughs scoured the footage and it seems like there's a consensus and i think i agree that this is fifth third ballpark in grand rapids michigan. Which is the home of the high tigers. Affiliate speaking of the awkward corporate sponsorships fifth third at park that it's difficult to say that's impossible. Yeah it's sound like you've had too many drinks no matter how many drinks you've had its fifth third bank which is headquartered in cincinnati. I think and i guess it's in the area in wisconsin. So i've why is it. Called fifth bank will. Evidently there is a third national bank and the fifth national bank and they merged in nineteen. Oh eight and so. They called themselves the fifth third national bank. Which i guess makes sense. But it doesn't really flow particularly wealth. But this happened. During prohibition and evidently they decided to do fifth third instead of third fifth which sounds a little easier to save but been construed as a reference to three fifths of alcohol and so that was a no go so it's fifth third which i have a lot of trouble with and doesn't sound very ballpark but anyway i think after reviewing the footage i agree. I think this is fifth third ballpark. It's it's sort of distinctive. It has some odd features has a ramp that like runs parallel to the fence. And then there's the outfield overhang and columns. It almost looks like old tiger stadium sort of old fashioned and at first. I wasn't sure if this was actually the same ballpark if it was two different ballparks in two different shots but i think it is fifth third ballpark. So the question is why. Why would you be using footage from fifth third ballpark here and i may have an explanation for that too and i think it could be that there was just some b. Roll that was shot of a minor league game in this park because to there is a montage where champ kind is calling some home runs and it cuts to a bunch of hitters hitting homers and he just keeps saying cami and it's whitecaps players players from that minor league team. I was reading a story from mlive dot com and evidently this came as quite a surprise to the whitecaps front office. It says how exactly that this happened. Graham said detroit-based filmmaker working for a los angeles. Film came to the stadium to film biro. The team signed an agreement. The footage is shot and nobody knows how it will be used so it was a shock to people in the whitecaps office. That clips of their team are featured in one of the biggest releases of the holiday. Season champ doesn't say the team's name but local baseball fans will recognize the uniforms. So anchorman too. I mean that was seven years ago. So this footage is old. It's possible that this is the same b-roll that that person's shot from that old minor league game and that it is just part of Some archive where if you need a baseball game you need a generic baseball game on your tv show. Then you just use this footage of the west michigan whitecaps so that is my best theory for why they used that. It's not particularly convincing. It doesn't really look like attachments giants. But i guess it could pass for one. If you weren't a baseball fan and the commentary lines up. I think fairly well. The timing is off but like the score bug is consistent with it being a walk off in the bottom of the ninth and what you hear of the commentator on the broadcast seems consistent although quite compressed. It's like tall in real time. There's no cut here. And so like eight seconds. Elapsed between the tying run scoring and you can see over johnny lawrence shoulder. The runner who just crossed home plate is heading back to the dugout and then like eight seconds later. You hear the crack of the bat and it's walk off and so this is like robin for it's wet dream if the game were actually moving that quickly. So there's some dead air that is kind of cut out here. Also like you hear the commentator say like oh it's going going gone or or whatever as the runner the batter runner who just hit the ball is our a rounding second base which is like either the slowest home run ball ever or the fastest home. Run trot ever. Because it's not clear to the united states that this fall's going out until the guy is already around second base so i don't know how that exactly works out there but i think even more than the baseball not really passing muster here. The bar atmosphere. Yes let's get into this. It seems to be like i'm not gonna. I'm not a sports park. I like pre pandemic. I'm not necessarily someone who's going to the bar to watch the game but like this does not seem at all. I mean first of all you have johnny. Who's been sitting here at the bar for four hours. Who can to reiterate looks terrible. He doesn't look great. look great. he's been sitting there drinking away. Whatever pain he is currently dealing with and he's got a bunch of beers in front of him and the server who's trying to closes or or charge him says he's been there for four hours so he's been sitting there in front of the tv now. There's only one tv in this place and it's not a big tv. It's like a pretty little tv and it's like over the corner of the bar so if this is a sports bar if this is a place people are congregating to watch the game. It is far from ideal because there's like a single screen that is not very big and he's been sitting here presumably staring at this news channel for the past four hours and no one said anything until now so this is like Suddenly these two dodgers fans come up to him and they're like oh it's the bottom of the ninth like we gotta watch this. What were you guys doing for the first nine innings. You weren't interested in watching this until it's the battle of the night like it's a pretty game i mean it's dodgers giants rivalry. It's not a blowout or anything. You came to this bar supposedly because like your big fans in. It's a sports bar. Why are you just now saying. I wanna watch the game in the bottom of the ninth. One of them is wearing a dodger. Shirt the other is just wearing a generic jersey with the champion logo on it okay. So here's the thing they so they were able to get clearance for bald tie-dye man to wear bald tiger guy shirt that has the dodgers logo in. Looks like a dodger shirt. They were not able to get clearance. This this gentleman to wear an actual dodgers jersey. They were fine to get the champion logo clearance. Shopian has not been the official manufacturer of mlb. Jerseys maybe ever certainly not now. And there's no name on the back of this guy's jersey. There's not even an la luca generic l. a. thing. It looks more like a padres mockup than it doesn't audrius markup because the blue isn't quite right also. This appears to be more of a restaurant but a bar. So he's just a fan of champion. I guess champion fan. He's just the brand. He's really excited about the as you stadium name because i don't even remember what it is now been good. You don't have to dr. Yeah that's a callback. But i guess this is something someone could conceivably wear like if they were playing softball or something and just like its generic baseball jersey. I guess and like maybe they just came from playing softball to the bar and one guys wearing a dodger shirt. The other guy isn't but it looks a little weird if he's like hardcore touches fan who has to see the game and he's just wearing generic champion jersey but also like they're the only two people who care there is a dodgers fan behind them who cannot see the tv at all and he couldn't care less which as we have. Established is very far away and quite small and is positioned such that the the bar lights woodblock most of their view of the tv. Anyway was johnny sitting there waiting for this local news report. How long is the local news on. I mean i. Maybe it's just an all news channel at. I don't know robots on on karate fights. Yeah there is a karate riot in the high school. Evidently karate clash. We do not know if the backstory but down there is another dodgers fan. And he's just sitting behind these two dodgers fans who are making a stink about this and he does not care at all he is seemingly paying. No attention doesn't react at all when there's the walk off there's off like the two dodgers fans who are now standing and have put the game on. They noticed the walk off. No one else in this bar. Restaurant establishment reacts at all. There's no cheer that goes up like this is not like the local dodgers. Fan watering hole. Here i i don't divide is just all wrong Looks like they're in a law office happens to have a bar in it. It is not an airport bar but it of has airport bar five right. It's just this is not like a place where you would let let like your neighborhood hang out like this is just. I guess we have to eat something. It's like it's like an apple beezer or something like i could apple nice yes but but you know it. It does not look like a place where there would be a regular clientele. That's like coming back here to watch the game because this is a terrible place to watch a game and so maybe that's Maybe these are just such casual dodgers fans that There in this place because they don't really care about seeing the game and that's why they're not interested in changing the channel. Until it's the bottom of the ninth and the dodgers are rallying but again why are you even there. Why are you wearing dodgers gear or champion gear in some cases. There's just a lot wrong here. Am i just like really misunderstanding. The the degree to which people do karate fates we might honey. Well i guess he's Fifty something that makes me feel. Oh have the other films in the karate kid universe. Ben accounted for in the timeline for cobra kai we're gonna get so many cobra kai emails. Don't don't answer the question guys. Let me find out on my own. I'm gonna. I'm gonna do some research i'm going to do. A deep dive on cobra kai that does not involve me watching guy out of our depth with cobra kai lower here as the producers of cobra kai when it comes to simulating a sports bar. I think you just have to pick up the phone and call someone. And i don't need a producer credit. You can just read a check. I'll tell you how baseball works. That's fine and i don't know when this was produced if this was produced during the pandemic then we can make some allowances. I guess you know you. Maybe it's hard to accurately replicate the sports bar environment when no one can go near each other and this is a pretty socially distanced environment like this pretty empty. Pretty dead in the spire restaurant so chevy that has something to do with it. And if so. I guess we could forgive that to some extent. But it's just not passing muster. I mean the the baseball players are not baseball. Players are supposed to be. It's not the right baseball place and they could make it the right baseball place because other shows do and i know because several years ago i wrote an article about baseball scene in the tv show elementary. Which did use real baseball footage. And i broke it down and it was nonsense when you break it down because the footage which was of a mets game actually came from multiple games that took place over multiple seasons and so i managed to piece together. What what games there was actually coming from. But it was at least real major league games in which the mets were playing. They were playing different teams in different clips but it was the phillies and the reds. So it wasn't immediately obvious from the uniforms anyway. It was more convincing. And when i talk to people at mlb and the producers of elementary about why it was so jumbled they had good reasons for it it was just that they had the scripts before they had the footage and they had to match the footage to the script and to the descriptions of what was going on in the game and as it happens they could not do that with one game. It just didn't work out. And so they had to splice together. A few different games to make it work. And and be less disruptive to the production so it was understandable. That that's why it was like that. But they did use footage. They got express written consent or whatever they had to do and cobra kai just was not interested in that. I guess they just give us some biro from this Whitecaps game and that'll be good enough and like he says some very disparaging things about light beer in the beginning of this but it seems that this is a bar that mostly serves light. Beer also wind. Yes lada. I think that i. I can't account for ban. I just can account for. They should've put a couple more. Tv's in here. I miss sports bars pretty badly. So i look forward to the pandemic being over so that i can frequent one again. Barfly really you really drink any not anything. You don't really drink alcoholic drinks. But you don't so like you know i can appreciate how that that's just not top of the list conducive to necessarily fit. They're nice places. I mean and a lot of them obviously have been hit hard by this year. Which is unfortunate and folias which is a great baseball player in new york within walking distance of my apartment that has closed and that is a great shame because i've done events there with baseball prospectus and for the machine and it's a great baseball environment and atmosphere and unfortunately is no more. So that really is a big bummer. So i don't know maybe cobra kai had some great authentic sports spire and they just couldn't get clearance to film there and that his the whole thing but if that's not it i don't know they need an excuse for the scene. I think i i would agree with that. I think you know. 'cause i'm a i'm a seahawks fan and when i was living in new york and then in madison like you just can't watch local team so i will always have an affection for sports bars and you write a great. Many of them have been been felled by the pandemic but in tribute to the good sports bar experienced developer cobra. high right. yeah yeah it's not the most egregious it's not the worst example and we obviously pay far far closer attention to these things than the average viewer. Who probably just did not give the second thought at least the baseball footage part of it. And we've done interviews with People who were involved in the production of the baseball scene in twilight or the baseball scenes in moneyball and pitch. And you know the people whose job it is to ensure that this looks good and obviously this is not a baseball show. I'm sure the karate looks convincing the karate really good. They probably brought in karate experts so that the karate equivalent of effectively wild is not breaking down the karate scenes and disparaging them as much as we are with the baseball scene. So this is a one off. I get it. I understand that. But we're still going to do our little nitpicks that we always do. And i just typed in miller park in wikipedia and it redirected me to american family field. They do a very thorough job. once they rebrand lake. I recalled going back through some of my instagram pictures. That i had taken it mariners games where i tagged safeco as the location and those geo tax get updated so yeah like i was at t mobile all along and i'm here to say do not rewrite history. I watched bad games at safeco. And that i watched bad games at t mobile. They were different bad games. Well wikipedia editors say. I applaud them. And they're all over it. But i think also and we made mention this when we talked about the coliseum but if you get the first sponsorship in park i think that's the most valuable. Oh yeah because everyone associates that park with your so miller park has been miller park since its advent and so that's why it's even more difficult. It's not just that it's been about two decades of miller park and we all got used to it but it's also that when we met notre park it was miller park. And now you're telling me that it's american family field and it just feels wrong and again aaron. Literally the brewers. Yes yes they are. All right we can and they're okay. That'll do it for today. Thank says oh is for listening. You can support the podcast unpatriotic by going to patriot dot com slash effectively. Wild the boeing five worcester's have already signed up and pledge some spunk. The amount of cape cod cast going get themselves access to some perks. Letcher travis ice nick fog henry. O'brien and pat deacon. Thanks to all of you. You can join our facebook group at facebook dot com slash kirk. Sasha affectively wildly can review and subscribe to execute on itunes on spotify and other podcasts platforms. Keep your questions and comments for me and neck. Coming the email at podcast vandross dot com or b the pgn messaging system if you are a supporter. Thanks to do and higgins for his editing assistance. We will be back with one more episode a little later this week. So he's talked to you stonestreet curve ball talk and song on the ball and your core jumping balls in goals would do.

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