16 Burst results for "Gulf Investment Corporation"

"gulf investment corporation" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

06:24 min | Last month

"gulf investment corporation" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Know exactly where you are because this is at the data always coming with a lag and there can be a lot of shocks that come in. So I'm sure they're not going to get it exactly right. That's what they're trying to do. I think if they're going to make a mistake, it's going to be on tightening a little bit too much because they really want to make sure that they bring inflation down. But for the reserve governor Randy Crozier on the fed's rate hike path, mixed signals from various fed officials over the size of the September rate hike are keeping markets guessing. Meanwhile, you have a survey by the consulted PWC revealing that roughly half of U.S. companies are reducing headcount or planning to do so. Let's bring in Raphael the bertone. He's the head of that capital markets. The gulf investment corporation. Rafael, I'm seeing this inflationary push once again that's coming through to your yields. I'm seeing that with some of the risk parity funds. In some of the energy plays and stocks as well, what do you think the fed is going to deliver by yearend given the tone we've seen from officials? Money usage good morning minus. Our expectation have not changed in the sense that we expect another 50 basis points. In September, followed by another two rates in November and December. So our terminal rate has been the same for the wire around the 3.5% and the recent data are showing that inflation at least in the U.S. is speaking. And going forward the need for rate hikes will diminish after at the beginning of 2023, the fed should become a more data dependent. Market is pricing rate hikes in 2023 and we think that these two early for that, we don't expect a recession in the U.S. and therefore the fed should maintain a sense going forward. So Rafael given that Goldilocks scenario some would say, you know, you're talking 50 and two clips of 25. James bullard said in the table for something much more punchy. Can I extrapolate from that sort of drift that you've laid out 50 and two 25s? Perhaps that the inversion of the curve has run its course, it'll find a bandwidth at 50 60, but it's not going to implode any further. And the quid pro quo is, of course, that credit spreads won't blow out any further. Yeah, that's absolutely our point. We believe that the bond market is priced already lots of negative news into 2023 that flattening of the curve is a little bit excessive at the moment and should step in going forward. Having said that, we know that there are lots of moving parts. Volatility is going to be high. But the trend is for this deeper curve going forward. There is a significant amount of repricing on the way in the FX markets, Rafael a, I'm seeing dollar strength. I'm seeing Euro and Sterling weakness is that going to endure given that the fundamentals continue to diverge as significantly as they do. Yeah, absolutely. The main divergence between the U.S. and Europe is obviously the energy crisis. We haven't seen yet any solution on that front. And in terms of inflation, Europe inflation is still peaking. And therefore. Everything is related to the currency. And I would say one thing, as you anticipated in November, we are going to have the G 20 with the participation of the big leaders. Something could change there. But until then, I think a U.S. dollar will remain at the same level for the market. And that's certainly the top story this morning is that when in doubt, the dollar is where you want to be. From a tactical position you've reduced your defensive position and you're adding to risky acids. So the question is, are you drawing out of cash and worry you loading up on risk? Is it equity? Is it credit? Or are you taking a little bit more duration? There's this whole narrative that the pension funds are ready to gorge on bonds at 3% and three 50 is probably the more enticing level. So where do you add risk across the portfolio? You're absolutely right. We have started reducing our shortage duration position, reducing cash in favor of long data government bonds, investment grade and emerging markets. On the IG side, we remain still a little bit defensive. But we are buying the short end of the curve. In terms of bonds, versus equity, we believe that bonds are already. A negative scenario. But why the equity after their recent readily is the risk adjustment rate and looks less attractive. So we prefer risky assets on the Bond side at the expense of equities at the moment. Okay, well, certainly one of the best rallies that we've had on record over this summer, perhaps it's a little bit of an auspicious warning the best, it even beat 1929. I mean, I've got sun on my face. I'm looking at upside here, for sure. Okay, there you go. You see, this is one of those, look at that. This is one of those magical moments on TV. Vitamin D while we're on air. You can get anybody. Rafael, thank you very much. We'll leave you with that thought. The light is shining on years of Rafael bartoni. How does that capital markets at the gulf investment

fed Rafael Randy Crozier gulf investment corporation U.S. James bullard bertone PWC Raphael Europe IG Rafael bartoni
"gulf investment corporation" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

06:32 min | 2 months ago

"gulf investment corporation" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Every time that's ever happened, that is essentially a signal that we are in or we are about to enter a recession. Key voice is reacting to the fed 75 basis point hike. Bond yields slumped while tech led stock gains following the decision markets are pressing in a hundred more basis points of moves in the next three months. The Euro dollar futures implied markets and they're seeing the fed cutting rates around 60 basis points next year. Let's bring it rough Bailey for Tony's the head of that capital markets at the gulf investment corps corporation raffaele. I'm going to split this into two camps and one camp is being led by Jeffrey Gunther from double line capital, who basically says that after this move of 75 basis points, the fed is no longer behind the curve. So regaining of credibility, and then on the other side of that, you have Guggenheim Scott miner, and he says that this is not going to help bring down some of the price growth as we go to the remainder of the year, which camp are you in? Has the fed lost some credibility here? Good money use of it. I think that the fed lost the credibility last year when the economy was running at full speed and they missed the opportunity to raise higher interest rates in a much stronger economic environment. Now the message is sent to yesterday is a mix one. With the surprise and the confirmation, the confirmation is that the fed sees the terminal rate around the 3.33 .5%. The surprise has been the dovish message to the fed is going to be more data dependent. That's a message that we were expecting for September now. The fed is clearly shaped the credibility from managing inflation to manage a softer landing, which is obviously a big challenge. So he moved the camp, but in terms of credibility, I think the jury's still out. Okay. Fixed income markets have kind of priced in an environment where we'll see an immediate return to the normal inflation regime. I mean, that makes me really uncomfortable. And that could also mean that we're going to see some unpleasant surprises there. It is possible that I use obviously the current economy, is completely different from what we had in the past. The last time we had the level of inflation was in the 80s and the U.S. treasuries was yielding 16% today, this level of high level of interest rates, nominal rates, is not feasible anymore. The level, the amount of outstanding that has increased the massively since the financial crisis, 350% over the GDP. And therefore, the economy can not stand high level of rates. So looking at the past is probably not the best way to predict the future. This time. I think interest rates have reached some way the peak. All right, with that in mind, and given what we heard from the fed chair, what's the playbook here for investors? What are you telling them in the morning meetings? How do they approach this to kind of jump on an arbitrage opportunity? We reduce already our short duration position during the month of June July. Because we think that the upside of phenomenal yield is limited, we use mainly U.S. treasuries and investment grade corporate bonds, which are now pricing and more attractive levels. Compared to a few months ago, after this message from the fed, the yesterday, I think there is a room of a significant rebound also on the lower rated part of the credit market in particular U.S., the European emerging markets. So I think the tone are going forward, there's going to be more constructive for risk. I look at some of the currency pairs Rafael in reaction to the fed and again, I'm a bit confused because it didn't sound to me like the fed is necessarily going full out dovish. But nonetheless, we're seeing a little bit of a retracement in dollar yen, the highest level in about three weeks. We're seeing retracement and Euro dollar. Is this just sort of a brief retracement, maybe on a technical level, that kind of sets the floor for an actual leg lower in terms of a stronger dollar and a weaker counter pair. In my view, the current level of the U.S. dollar against the major emerging market countries already reflects the differential in terms of interest rates and expected economic growth. Going forward, the dollar should probably follow the oil price and commodity prices in general. We know that the situation for the oil market in Europe is quite complicated and it prices depends on several factors and in particular the supply from Russia. If we see some good surprise from there, I think the dollar should weaken. And on the other on the other side, the situation will continue to be difficult even more difficult to do during the winter period, probably the dollar as some room to strength. Rafael, thank you for helping us chart a path through all the event talk. It's Rafael liberton. He's the head of debt capital markets at the gulf investment corporation. A wonderful to see you again. So

fed gulf investment corps Jeffrey Gunther Guggenheim Scott miner raffaele U.S. Bailey Tony Rafael Europe Russia Rafael liberton gulf investment corporation
"gulf investment corporation" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

02:19 min | 2 months ago

"gulf investment corporation" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Singapore. Thanks if U.S. senator Joe Manchin, a majority leader Chuck Schumer, have struck a deal on a tax and energy policy Bill, breaking a deadlock on legislation to enact major parts of President Biden's agenda. The plan announced by the two Democrats would raise an estimated $739 billion in revenue and reduce deficits by $300 billion. It would also provide $369 billion for energy and climate change. Xinhua news is reporting a speech by Xi Jinping in which he says China is facing more complex risks and challenges than ever before, both domestically and internationally. The Chinese president says the nation is entering a new phase that offers strategic opportunities as well as increasingly complicated problems. She also praised the Communist Party's response to issues including the pandemic and Taiwan strait. Australia is slashing its GDP growth outlook by half a percentage point blaming inflation and global risks in an economic statement treasury Jim Chalmers will outline today the new target of 3% for the fiscal year. Growth is expected to slow to 2% in fiscal 2024. Chalmers says the economy is still growing, but challenges are too, and those including inflation, which is at a two decade high. Add a group of offshore creditors to China evergrande is reportedly demanding information about the seizure of cash by local banks. According to The Wall Street Journal, the creditors say evergrande did not sufficiently explain how nearly $2 billion was guaranteed to the lenders without any disclosure to investors. The creditors are demanding compensation for the lost funds, which were held by evergrande's offshore subsidiary. Global news, 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg quicktake powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts see more than 120 countries. This is Bloomberg. Thanks, shawls. Let's get you all a bit of a snapshot. I know what is coming up on the show. We're going to talk about the regional implications of the fed's latest rate hike with, or come capital, executive director for fixed income asset management that's zenor risk, 'cause not everybody moved the same way within the golf Central Bank spectrum. But up next, global market announces from the gulf investment corporation's Rafael de bertone, who says the inflation data leaves little room for complacency. This is

senator Joe Manchin President Biden Xinhua news Chuck Schumer Jim Chalmers Xi Jinping Taiwan strait China Singapore Communist Party evergrande Chalmers U.S. Bill
"gulf investment corporation" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

02:09 min | 8 months ago

"gulf investment corporation" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"To Julian selling Singapore to him Hey you have Sergio matrella has been reelected as president in Italy after a fruitless search for an alternative candidate that sets up former ECB head Mario Draghi to remain as prime minister It was initially seen as a top contender for president but lawmakers feared a return to political chaos without his leadership Matrella had also been keen to retire but dragging reportedly asked him to stay to end this stalemate U.S. senators are said to be nearing agreement on a Russia sanctions bill that could include penalties Even if Moscow does not send troops into Ukraine foreign relations committee chair bob Menendez says restrictions could be applied based on what the Kremlin has already done Meanwhile the UK is reportedly looking for ways to target the wealth of Russian oligarchs held in the London property market Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon's compensation jumped to $35 million for 2021 The bank disclosed in a regulatory filing that Solomon will receive $12 million in cash and the rest in stock awards that is double his payout from a year earlier when he was asked to return a third of his pay as penalty for the bank's role in the one MDB scandal Rafael Nadal has broken the man's record for the most Grand Slam singles titles Nadal Russia's Daniel Lev Medvedev in the final of the Australian open coming back from two sets down in a match lasting 5 hours and 24 minutes It was the Spanish player's 21st Grand Slam title breaking a three way tie with Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic on 20 neither Federer nor Djokovic played in the tournament Global news 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg quick take Powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries This is Bloomberg Yusef Thanks Juul's historic images there from the world of tennis Still to come on the program we have a couple of voices on the region's markets Adami capital chief strategy officer Muhammad Ali Austin is going to help us navigate some of the seams out there and then Citigroup head of investment banking Miguel is later But next Rafael bertoni from the gulf investment corporation discusses defense next moves and the market's reaction Your equity futures are higher This is Bloomberg.

Sergio matrella Matrella foreign relations committee Mario Draghi David Solomon bob Menendez ECB Julian Russia Daniel Lev Medvedev Singapore Italy Moscow Ukraine Goldman Sachs Rafael Nadal Solomon U.S.
"gulf investment corporation" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

01:37 min | 9 months ago

"gulf investment corporation" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"And around the world Tell them I had of equity strategy research has known Malik joins me Put up next we focus on the fixed income strategy with gulf investment corporation head of debt capital markets Rafael bertoni This is Bloomberg Would you say it's more important to gather information fast or to have it first or to be the most accurate They can really move the needle when it comes to programs It's the level of support you'll get from companies for this What if you don't have to choose It also has a north importance for the labor market How do they get ahead of different administrations We see this move towards digital currencies Bloomberg radio the Bloomberg business app and Bloomberg radio dot com Bloomberg the world is listening We used to take our freedom of movement for granted not anymore It's not just that people work for the airlines and it's natural to feel grateful for the things that kept you going Does America have a chance to lose our advantage Can we get to her community fast enough So that will be in good shape But really we were just doing our jobs Oxford University is starting a study on patients who've recovered from COVID Bloomberg radio the Bloomberg business app and Bloomberg radio dot com Bloomberg the world is listening What's the difference between you and your competition What's your vision in this relationship We're guessing one thing is that you are better informed European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde had this to say actually we're not guessing The realism of this is tangible up to the moment news Some of the biggest states good.

Bloomberg gulf investment corporation Rafael bertoni Malik COVID Bloomberg com Bloomberg Oxford University America European Central Bank Christine Lagarde
"gulf investment corporation" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

06:17 min | 11 months ago

"gulf investment corporation" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Terms on the year The strength provides support for the local economy losing some steam in part due to the real estate slowdown and downturn And some caution from the consumers What does rafaela bertone make of the most recent state of data So strong export data this morning That's going to be a relief to the global trade raffaele How much will that bolster the domestic growth story And how do you play exposure to domestic China at the moment China has been performing relatively less well than other markets If we look at the manufacturing PMI they are below 50 after a stronger rebound at the end or last year but the service BMI is very very strong service BMI is usually more correlated with the performance of the domestic economy I think the China manufacturing PMI should improve in the course of next year The government has plenty of room to support the economy in the real problem is the property sector in China which is obviously a real issue in terms of profitability and is a big part of the economies about 30% of the GDP So I think at the moment the focus of the government is to manage the lending a softer lending for the property sector But the rest of the economy should continue to perform well And herein lies the point I mean we've caught up with several bank CEOs HSBC standard chartered UBS et cetera and they are not overly concerned about the state of play in the property market They don't have direct exposure Now Kaiser is another company which delivered I think a crushing blow to the high yield market last week I'm just going to show you the high yield market at the moment because everybody is debating They failed to meet payments on some of their wealth products So this again plays into some of the uncertainty around property around the sort of the alternative financial markets Looking at this high yield and the junk space in Asia Is it just too soon to get involved here There was a moment I think ten days ago when people said look breathe it's time to jump back into high yield Is it too soon for you I think so manon's there is no doubt that the specific segment of the fixed income market is really levered and they are at the beginning of a deleverage deleveraging process I think is too early to jump in and we expect a spike in the default rate for the part of the market and therefore we try to do avoid it If you think the best value in China in terms of exposure for investor is still the equity market and the government the bond market which is one of the real rates in the world with a stable currency So too early to jump in the yield space in China and there are other opportunities to play if you want to have exposure to China Okay a magician would just show in the agent developers there at the moment with exposure to the high yield sector Rafael would pick up that theme when we speak again hopefully before that Christmas season in Raphael bartone had a debt capital Mark as a gulf investment corporation too early to be brave in the high yield space in China plenty more ahead on the Sunday edition of daybreak Middle East setting the agenda for you This is Bloomberg The best of Bloomberg business week every business day Sales activity soaring The Bloomberg business week podcast with Carol messer and Bloomberg quick takes Tim Senate What is an apple developed car look like The days breaking global business finance and tech news along with smart analysis This stock has been on a tear The Bloomberg business we podcast We just get like 20 seconds from you on Bitcoin Listen today on Bloomberg radio dot com the Bloomberg business app or subscribe on Apple podcasts The markets in focus every business day the Bloomberg markets podcast with Paul Sweeney and Matt Miller There's some sectors that you want to have more or less exposure to We've got a vaccinate the whole world analysis of the day's Wall Street actions Bloomberg intelligence Bloomberg opinion and influential newsmakers The bond market was the boss Bloomberg markets with all Sweeney and Matt Miller subscribe to day and Bloomberg radio dot com The Bloomberg business app or iTunes Before and after the pandemic Is it driven by politics or by science Then maybe how we keep track of our lives from here on out What do you think the political effects of that impatience will be And through it all there's been Bloomberg We begin on Capitol Hill the most accurate business world and healthcare news before and after The fundamentals do not justify this price action Bloomberg radio the Bloomberg business app and Bloomberg radio dot com Bloomberg the world is listening Would you say it's more important to gather information fast or to have it first or to be the most accurate They can really move the needle when it comes to programs Is the level of support you get from companies for this What if you don't have to choose It also has enormous importance for the labor market How do they get ahead of different administrations We see this move towards digital currencies Bloomberg radio the Bloomberg business app and Bloomberg radio dot com Bloomberg the world is listening.

China rafaela bertone Bloomberg CEOs HSBC Raphael bartone government UBS Carol messer manon Tim Senate Kaiser Matt Miller Paul Sweeney Asia Rafael Apple Bloomberg radio com Bloomberg Sweeney
"gulf investment corporation" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

06:20 min | 11 months ago

"gulf investment corporation" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Just gone 8 a.m. across the Emirates warm welcome to the show on manuscript So you're going to get a fiscal impulse boost to the U.S. stock market when we waking up tomorrow We've had a taper so far without a tantrum And we've got a Pfizer pill get ready You've got a Pfizer pill coming down the pike and that could give you a new wave to the opening reopening trade But let me bring you to a week that saw stocks deliver the longest winning streak since 2020 on the S&P 500 Now the NASDAQ and the Russell I perform the dime in the S&P But my word it's a fomo trap until the end of the year That's fear of missing out or you only live once Yola which trade do you want to do Fomo versus Yolo There is a manic momentum in the tech Raleigh $50 billion changing hands on Tesla options But what are you paying for 32 and a half times profits Is it worth it Bank of America say the U.S. versus the rest of the world is the best year since 1997 The only thing to fear is greed itself and how do you hedge that in the Russell Let me take you to the oil market They were greedy greedy in the oil market but we've just seen two weeks of a cascading dying in prices And the battle lines are drawn No surrender from OPEC plus holding the line We will not produce more than 400,000 barrels a day This is your problem Not our problem Your market problem with a gas market like very clear message from OPEC plus But what's Biden considering He doesn't see OPEC plus shifting And there is torque knight that the U.S. is looking at the special petroleum reserve That's 600 million barrels of oil But that's a very different grade of oil to want the oil market needs There you have battle lines are drawn between a release by the U.S. and OPEC plus But I want to show you two days that change the narrative in the U.S. bond market The biggest two did drop in the year for US Treasury markets You had a strong and sturdy job support which in theory should have seen yields go higher No they didn't They cascaded lower but below the 50 and 100 day moving averages The question is this Larry summer says very little evidence that unless you apply the brake now that you avoid a hard landing we'll talk about the two day move in the bond market in just a moment with Rafael bartone But in the meantime let's talk about that labor data that we got on Friday What did we get U.S. labor market It got back on track really one could say last month You had a larger than forecast and a broad based payrolls game Indicating greater progress filling millions of vacancies as the effects of the delta variant faded Meanwhile the house on Friday passed the biggest U.S. infrastructure package in decades Marking a victory for President Biden and unleashing a $550 billion spending of on roads bridges transport and other projects in the coming years But fears about inflation Well they are still there The U.S. CPI came out the former treasury secretary Larry summers says the feds in action on price pressures is dangerous My view is if we let inflation accelerate there's almost no proven ability of the Central Bank to engineer a soft landing And so in order to squeeze out an extra bit of hope for labor market tightness I think we're taking a real risk that we're setting up for a very serious problem You know if you look ahead of you and you see that there might be all the traffic stopped you start breaking your car as early as you can Even if it means that it's going to slow you down in the event that there is no traffic jam And that's I think the right way to think about the Central Bank's problem right now Well let's bring in Rafael bertoni He's the head of debt capital markets at gulf investment corporation He's going to consider what the two day collapse in you really meant on the back of the fed We'll consider Larry summer's commentary in just a moment Rafael always great to get you on the show I started the show by showing the two day implosion The biggest two day move dying in yields at the shore in the treasury market since 2020 Now that's pushing against really pushing against a solid job support with it was broad based Why do you think you cascaded lower on the back of strong data This is a taper but no tantrum Good morning mine That's a very interesting question In my view the movement in the market is already started on Thursday with a comment from the BOE And the message from the beauty was very very clear The inflation expectation that the market are pricing at the moment are too high and the central banks still continue to consider these spike in inflation as a temporary phase And more importantly central banks want to normalize the monetary policy in a very gradual way And that's not what the bone market was pricing This year the main trade has been a shock of duration Everybody all investors are on the same side And obviously the words of the BOE has moved the market in a very technical way in my view I mean we'll come back to some people are describing Bailey's communication as that of miscommunication and very muddy forward guidance and he falls into the unreliable boyfriend camp I want to stick with the U.S. for the moment We listen to Larry summers He said.

OPEC U.S. Larry summer Pfizer special petroleum reserve Russell US Treasury Rafael bartone S President Biden Emirates Tesla Bank of America Raleigh Biden Central Bank
"gulf investment corporation" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

04:57 min | 1 year ago

"gulf investment corporation" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Forward There can be less temporary and becoming more normal I think the central banks are a little bit behind the curve at the moment for several reasons especially on the part of the world We have seen already other central banks having different views and starting the icing process I think the bond market at the moment is right in prizing and various law increase in the yields But is in our view clear that the current level of nominal rates are too low especially the real race and they should increase going forward Rafael investors are starting to write off the Bloomberg dollar index and it's made a remarkable comeback The biggest move since June the highest level since November of last year the market's live team is asking what the bigger implications are here How will a resurgent dollar affect markets I think the biggest thing that is going to be on emerging markets but for the moment the movement is very the acquisition is very contained is not creating an image ratio called the global economy Obviously the dollar is lead by difference in interest rates across the world And the expected difference in terms of growth And both of them are in favor of the U.S. at the moment So these low increase acquisition of the dollar should continue even though I'm not in a big size So Rafael let's get back to the rates market that you cover on a daily basis which is where are your Bank of America having encapsulated where the rates market is at the moment You talk about a slow lift off and settle banks being behind the curve So what do you make of this proposition We're in the first stage of interest rate risk is recognizing that the driver's good macro So good macro drives you in the first instance The second stage is a little bit more frightening to think about the negative consequences And we're in the second stage And that's got a big implication for credit Do you think we're in the fear stage in the rates market yet I think so minus we are obviously in a more mature phase of the economic recovery which is generally positive for risky assets The absolute level of nominal rates are still manageable for the economy we are at 1.5% which is well below the highest we saw before summer I believe that both the economy and the decorative market can handle higher rates especially when the reason for these increases is a strong economic activity And therefore we are not yet in the second phase of the city's mention Rafael I want to take you to China briefly because we have of course some positive signals emerging around the government basically telling banks to support the property market to support homebuyers Yes we had a bit of a miss on the eco date on the last few hours But you've been a fan in the past of allocating into Chinese government bonds I'm wondering whether you buy into some of this weakness You are asked to absolutely right use of a I've been a fan of Chinese government bonds These attractive in terms of nominal rates and the real rates the currency actually has been stable if not appreciated against the dollar The corporate market is obviously different If you look at the total debt in China is one of the areas in the world around 290% of these the majorities is private debt So the big credit to risk in China is more the private sector especially the property sector as the story of very very grand as demonstrated But the government caught the government bond market is remains attractive compared to other developed or even emerging market countries Raphael always loved looking at the big picture with you thank you for running us through those ideas roughly in the berton and he's the head of dead capital markets of the gulf investment corporation Much more to come on daybreak.

Rafael Chinese government Bank of America U.S. China Raphael berton government
"gulf investment corporation" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

01:32 min | 1 year ago

"gulf investment corporation" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"And the Ad council. Bloomberg Television. Here's Manus Cranny. Rafael Bertoni from Gulf Investment Corporation joins Danny and I, the head of debt capital markets. You've lived through a few cycles, so let's get down to business, Larry Summers says. We've had inflation for five months. It's not about modifying your forecasts. But you should think about what their errors of thinking were. That led them to be so far off the forecast. This is group think Larry Summers is accusing us all of groupthink. Are we suffering from groupthink in that hoping inflation as transitory. There is obviously a big split in the market of the movement, including central banks regarding this temporary aspect of despite an information we have seen so far. We always been on the camp of this is temporary disease related to the particular nature of this recovery, which is not traditional economic recorded, but he's more re opening of the economy after the lockdown enforced The pandemic is very difficult to make a comparison with the past, and it's very difficult to predict how inflation would not going forward. Obviously, we would say I young numbers themselves informational expectations, but but we remain convinced like that. This is temporary when the economy with reopened, fully hear more conversations like this one on Bloomberg Television streaming live on Bloomberg dot com and on the Bloomberg Mobile APP. Or check your local cable.

Rafael Bertoni Larry Summers Gulf Investment Corporation Bloomberg Television Danny five months Bloomberg Mobile APP Bloomberg dot com Manus Cranny
"gulf investment corporation" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

02:07 min | 1 year ago

"gulf investment corporation" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Navy sailors were killed, any others were injured in the attack. That's the latest unsuitable And I'm Susanna Palmer in the Bloomberg newsroom UK and European Union negotiators will talk triggered again today is both sides try to patch up serious last minute differences that are threatening to derail a Brexit deal. Discussions had broken down the previous day, with the British side accusing their EU counterparts of putting fresh demands on the table last minute. Negotiations are going right down to the wire. Britain is due to leave the European single Market and Customs Union at the end of this month. The Hartford current the oldest continuously published newspaper in the U. S plans to close the newsroom and offices it has been operating out of Since the mid forties, this by the end of the year more from Bloomberg's tiny's Pellegrini. The newspaper will continue to be published publisher and editor in chief, Andrew Julian, telling staffers in any email parent company Tribune Publishing is making the decision about the need for physical space amid the challenging environment for health and economics, and will consider if it needs to open a new office in the future. Building in Hartford has been largely empty since many staff members began working remotely in March during the Corona virus pandemic. Denise Pellegrini Bloomberg radio. Traders and investors will start the week on a high Monday, literally as major US indexes hit records on Friday on optimism for another stimulus package. Raphael a bear, Tony is head of debt capital Markets, a Gulf investment corporation. He says the package probably won't be as big as some are expecting from a believe that park it would be slightly smaller than What we are expecting at the moment, but it is going to be another significant step forwards and more sustainable recovery in in US Tony was interviewed this morning on Bloomberg. Daybreak. Middle East Global News 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg. Quick. Take Howard by more than 2700, journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. I'm Susanna Palmer, This is Bloomberg..

Bloomberg Susanna Palmer European Union Hartford Denise Pellegrini US Navy Customs Union Tribune Publishing UK Tony head of debt capital Markets Britain Howard Andrew Julian East Global News Gulf investment corporation publisher Raphael
"gulf investment corporation" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

02:07 min | 1 year ago

"gulf investment corporation" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Eastern. That's the latest on Mr Taylor. And I'm Susanna Palmer in the Bloomberg newsroom UK and European Union negotiators will talk triggered again today is both sides try to patch up serious last minute differences that are threatening to derail a Brexit deal. The discussions had broken down the previous day, with the British side accusing their EU counterparts of putting fresh demands on the table last minute. Negotiations are going right down to the wire. Britain is due to leave the European single Market and Customs Union at the end of this month. The Hartford current the oldest continuously published newspaper in the U. S plans to close the newsroom and offices it has been operating out of Since the mid forties, this by the end of the year more from Bloomberg's tiny's Pellegrini. The newspaper will continue to be published publisher and editor in chief, Andrew Julian, telling staffers in any email parent company Tribune Publishing is making the decision about the need for physical space amid the challenging environment for health and economics, and will consider if it needs to open a new office in the future. Building in Hartford has been largely empty since many staff members began working remotely in March during the Corona virus pandemic. Denise Pellegrini Bloomberg radio. Traders and investors will start the week on a high Monday, literally as major US indexes hit records on Friday on optimism for another stimulus package. Raphael there Tony is head of debt Capital Markets, a Gulf investment corporation. He says the package probably won't be as big as some are expecting probably the park. It would be slightly smaller than what we are expecting at the moment, but is going to be another significant step for Words and more students sustainable recovery Now in us there, Tony was interviewed this morning on Bloomberg. Daybreak. Middle East Global News 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg. Quick take powered by more than 2700, journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. I'm Susanna Palmer, This is Bloomberg. This.

Bloomberg Susanna Palmer European Union Hartford Denise Pellegrini Tony Mr Taylor Customs Union Tribune Publishing UK head of debt Capital Markets US Britain Andrew Julian East Global News Gulf investment corporation publisher Raphael editor in chief
"gulf investment corporation" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

08:51 min | 2 years ago

"gulf investment corporation" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Let's check in on the latest developments in Middle East markets to Simone Foxman she joins us on the kind of financial center in Doha Simona equity markets than me daily just put up a bit of a recovery then finally after what we've seen this week so far yeah that's right Yousef al Dubai and Abu Dhabi in particular leading the recovery in the Mideast region bouncing back and I wanted to give you a superlative here but really this jump the six and seven percent just the biggest since like a week ago but we did see a broad recovery so that's positive for anyone who's bullish on this region but if we put the boards I'll show you something and I'm watching closely and that is that the developers the UAE developers in particular they were some of the biggest gainers in at yesterday's trading session them along with the some of our tourism names and that's going to be in focus particularly for do you buy it now to buy has at expo twenty twenty on the horizon we got word and just yesterday that the steering committee of experts twenty twenty will meet to discuss the current situation next week expo twenty twenties post draw twenty five million visitors and and going to start in October I'm fine I'll show you the the the metric we don't want to see take higher and that would be really important to that extra twenty twenty story and that is a cancellations business and he essentially business cancellations we don't want to see more business and businesses go out of business and that's really what the stimulus measures are are attempting to still hold but we'll have to see if that works over the next few months he said the fascinating chart they thank you for that from that that's a Simone Foxman the kind of financial center in Doha let's get back to this other important story because with no signs of the pandemic abating markets are waiting for a unified European response yesterday's Eurogroup meeting proved inconclusive though today there isn't any meeting in terms of the council here's what masons are saying about the corona bonds and the ESN I think we have all the firepower we need and we will use of terrorism road valley road support and to use the S. Hammond to every trendy too to be clear the whenever we need it's time to get use of the ESL and assessment is that the simpler the better other instruments will be made available if needed let's spend some time thinking about the possibility of introducing your warms corner bones within New York this is a good idea it's a good idea to demonstrate that so he D. D. all the physical response on the European side full assessment he that he could be useful to create such instruments to support do you open economy Germany would work for solidarity in the European Union untethered we understand it's necessary that took to fight together and discuss what happened whatever Tony Gulf investment corporation head of debt capital markets is still on the line with us rafaeli SO I'll try monetary transactions empty potentially on the table ESM in the pipeline Greek government bond yields start coming down a little bit everybody's you know coming along in terms of the drum roll but what is the readers with the real risk here as far as you're concerned it's a very good collecting music are you a ball on I called Peca discussion for a long time no replies just fired by taking the current situation I zero four I was surprised these crises and that whole was mine not that should be situation the vivid seats and I think that is the ideal moment old good conditions to see more exactly the options with the new union the integration will be very very positive for all countries because I know that there are countries agreed that yet at sixty BTC and other companies that we all bought all but dead BTC strongly consider a combination of the two point five ball ball and she all the European countries and the reviews as much as we can the cost of borrowing in order to support the economy it's very very important call because we are making some progress there the Financial Times the last two hours and lawyer Truckee wrote an editorial there's a bit that really caught my eye and I was going to run you through that close in terms of the crisis of the European Union the eurozone faces he writes faced with unforeseen circumstances that change of mind set is a necessary in this crisis as would be in times of war the stock we are facing is not cyclical the loss of income is not the fault of any of those who suffer from it the cost of education may be irreversible and the memory of the sufferings of Europeans in the nineteen twenties is enough of a cautionary tale some very strong words and from Mario Draghi what are you telling clients in terms of bond exposure in Europe at the moment what what is the point for you need to look like I think that their bills are very small and ward and I'm very at the school's police to detain comments of all non market in addition to that set the stage for some nudity energy bars and you can sort of commendations all we are able to different markets days I will be there mumbling and other cool European countries threatening people are you there as you can as well Schlumberger NV searches for and sometimes the legend a little football news the latest announcement from B. C. B. importance of bond buying four investment grade corporate markets five Bob Dole did the application pool will be delayed because we know that yeah or do you much more still on the loose another had that right he need not be looking at market market is that different as for the fact that I mean about you called they're going to be on the rise and other company we'd be on the line calls are scheduled on the street there are becoming more interesting and valuable to do a little math my recommendation it's a the very polite he's slightly bobbled the big box with the market there and try to take advantage of their all babies and that facts at all it means that they I mean we heard from the German finance ministry and they're talking about temporary timely and targeted in terms of potential stimulus package up would you say the market is still very skeptical about seeing anything from the German authorities on this right so are you saying we have been called for people from the German government thank you for crises and you know we only did this all market the the what the disease because I think describe the difference that we all should the German government bonds at some of the world's today added the cost and that we might be surprised what fall mas but they could not be completed sooner that they should stop the vehicle number for each well it's been great catching up thank you for those insights at Serafina Tony he's the Gulf investment corporation head of debt capital markets still plenty more ahead than on this historic day this is Bloomberg thank you the opinions of world economic leaders is a challenge that may be the biggest Whopper you'll hear all day because we gave you more ways to hear from the experts four eight we had just been everything else says this is the top of her list how is.

Simone Foxman Middle East Doha Simona
"gulf investment corporation" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

11:38 min | 2 years ago

"gulf investment corporation" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"All eyes then on the congressional spending package in the United States but at the moment then the clearance has come through the bill has crossed the floor in the Senate successfully and it's a P. five hundred mini futures just paring back a little bit of the losses there remember that the danger for mark is that the U. S. emergency aid packages already built into prices that's the point the markets life team is making a big held above sixty overnight we did see the Dow Jones rising to what was the best two day advance since nineteen eighty seven U. S. ten year yields let's get to that the board as well because treasuries across the board really stepping sharply in late U. S. trade you got your long and turning cheaper the front and the rallying with that strong demand for the five year auction the fiscal monetary bazookas are not going to be enough you're not going to make a difference unless there is a corresponding fall in the speed of the corona virus pandemic that's what I'm on the asset management is saying and we might be seeing that as well and some of these asset classes in terms of the metrics Dalian a hundred and ten seventy two were down to fifty one percent and Brent crude also under pressure even though the U. S. is approaching Saudi Arabia diplomatically to try to fix this oil price war the spat between Russia and Saudi Arabia let's get to some of the other market action now and head out to Derek wall bank is the U. S. Senate has passed the record two trillion dollar stimulus package I know quite a few angles going to flesh out here that's after settling lastminute dispute over key issues are on unemployment benefits the bill now heads to the house where lawmakers are expected to approve what will be the largest rescue package in U. S. history and there existed a bit of a sense that all of how does eventually cross the line and and where it goes from here in terms of the protocol and the procedural elements well the way that across the finish line here is actually remarkably simple the last hold out over to the generosity unemployment benefits waited lawmakers vote on it so go ahead and try to pass it they couldn't pass it and so then they just took the final street after that under the sixty vote threshold six and so this one you know we've we've been sitting here talking about how was right you know I've been trying to tell viewers this is the ordinary steps a bill of this size don't panic here we are okay this is going to house next it looks like there's a voice vote later this week don't go on to the White House president trump is expected to sign it and send it it is going to be gone for quite awhile experts are scheduled for late April and it looks like you know that this is going to be sort of where it is for next minute as US lawmakers yeah trying to get what they might need to do I think there's going to be a bit of searching and seeing how we go on this before you get an idea of what exactly Derek I look through the bell I mean it's almost nine hundred pages so I'll I'll be honest I didn't quite get to every bit of it but give me a bit of a sense of what caught your attention that that might be important for investors and to try to get their head around yeah well I think one of the key things in their ears Democrats more oversight than they were thinking they were going to get the original package so that's a bit of a change that you got there the unemployment benefits which we mentioned are actually pretty hi comparable to what people are used to for the next four months that kind of that we're looking at here this is one of the things that caught my eye this is really a build it's written for the indefinite future this is a really sort of trying to be tailored toward the immediate short term and one of the things that was really interesting really or call us at one eight why does the Senate was voting that read I live across the terminal a thousand deaths one thousand units it's because of the corona virus does happen it is the same time that vote and that whole coming right at the same time sure and so you're really is a focus on this problem worse states this is a new record stimulus to try and address the economic but the health science that uses you talk about what what the hell's one hundred percent Derek yeah well I think that there there are things that I said Derek wall Bangor senator in Singapore it's going to roughly over Tony he's the Gulf investment corporation head of that capital markets rafaeli your initial reaction than on what is it a momentous spending support package in the United States that's going to Ryan limit the damage from the corona virus spreads what's your take one user it's about it of course the English that Peter didn't and you lock it in vitamins a single country will try to focus as much as they can in front of the a D. D. D. also vehicle nobody to stop that as soon as possible and when they go on a large practices that the the older I. I. D. and B. comes we should focus on the debt on GDP the racial but more on B. as needed on the vehicle or other than all the other user groups that happens probably not and you know what will be needed something more but he's already good staff and that market is already at the mall block good news and that costs a couple of trading sessions how much of this is with a price and Rafael occurs the reaction we're seeing across the key asset classes would argue that quite a bit was already in there my assessment is that the process that three way call bodies garage warns that you Barclays a small D. an economic expectations in terms of growth but more hold that that you decide to be sold Ford center letters need to raise cash margin coals in some cage insular denture cleaner on I certainly needs to be a little bit moments are led to believe that all of the decoration all black economic fundamentals and numbers all of the features that are on board that will go on for a second more in market while not at the news of the technicals therefore and that is constructed to get such a good application I did a good job mentor profile of basketball yields and that people will let you can call me ASAP some people do some people Cincinnati's Catholic I would break it lives here from JP Morgan the equity derivatives trading revenue is said to be a reaching one point five billion dollars we understand that that blind I just hit a red level on the terminal just getting some additional details here as well in terms of the swelling in the revenue what is a key part of JPMorgan's business they're saying basically that the trading division has been able to push forward and so is that there up to feel the intense market swings as well so the equity derivatives all the set to soar to one point five billion dollars the stock has been under tremendous pressure in the United States trading under ninety dollars a share Ruffin I wanna get back to you and and get a bit of a take on distressed debt specifically and and you deal with that a little bit as well any kind of data they coverage you can go for our clients for that additional context the story of the amount of distress dead in the U. S. that's quadrupled in less than a week we now at nearly a trillion dollars levels we haven't seen since two thousand eight is the collapse of oil prices and then you can follow on from the corona virus shutters entire industries is this going to be the next big hurdle for markets as they try to get their head around the crisis you are absolutely right the user has yet been taken up by the day as significant amount of leverage in the market the that she minute collected by central banks act as we did over the clock began to appear as being a concern on the market for a long time did you get to the validate all for the good Jon Katz eight it's another sign of that surprising that market than the biological sample but he did very I at the moment the everything depends on the monitor he knows that the adults in the central bank will continue to collide you know that because both of these companies as big B. B. eight four at the disco but usually high leverage in their bonnet she will not be a good day the card from all you it's a bigger concern and commendation password that leads ultimately to look at a company by company they're all four wheel and trying to see where we live and I'm talking to do they do that mentally but that that is the big concern use of not only for the company's ownership for the vehicle being that monitor that could've been procedure Rafael that's on him not to talk about that is rough and Tony stays with us get more now on the other parts of the market with Julie it's only in Singapore tools I yes if what we are seeing Asian stocks a little mixed today after that very solid session yesterday which was the best daily gain for Asian market since two thousand and eight but you do have some weakness coming through in the Nikkei today and that's particularly at being seen in a lot of the restaurant and food chains today off to Tokyo ordered its residents will suggested its residents stay indoors over the weekend you will say St still thankful as much as eleven percent after moody's downgrade some upside though in India we are expecting a fiscal package from the government the abi I also expected to add cash into the banking system here in Singapore a little bit of weakness we have that shock of first quarter GDP number and of course he knows that what more is on the way more bad news I should say is on the way with Singapore effectively shutting down terrorism now and also of course vase to shut down from midnight and then call speedy in Seoul up by about one percent Korean bonds rallying as well and currency swaps tightening that the bank of Korea pledging unlimited liquidity to financial institutions strange by the pandemic Yousef do you think very much for that that so it's really it's only there with the market around a bit of a stance on ten of what's ahead the trump administration press.

United States Senate
"gulf investment corporation" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

05:26 min | 2 years ago

"gulf investment corporation" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Fast spreading coronavirus it's up to three hundred and five more than fourteen thousand total confirmed cases a person the Philippine has become the first to die outside of China with Chinese market regulators have unveiled a sea of measures to ensure stability in its forty five trillion dollar financial system the markets reopen on Monday following an extended lunar new year break it's got to on gas not rough I looked on the head of capital markets and senior portfolio manager I Gulf investment corporation who joins us on the Skype from Kuwait soul family here we go with C. S. C. instead he measures in total coming from the PD see from the regulators does that give you some sense of confidence that tonight tomorrow morning when we open that sort of that the Chinese are bottle ready to support these markets good morning my nose and all of DC's a leg a good a good that statement from the view of the sea and that and that and the China Chinese government I think that they are going to do their best to do and good with these out correct which of using the he's gonna have a big effect on on Chinese economy and and more generally on global economy we E. soul on Fridays eight PM my already going down the back school at fifty ad which is a sign that the economy was already struggling even before the outbreak and add that in there for we need that it is being exported from today Chinese authority in order to support to the economy and they yeah but and your room to do that so at the moment that I I am I think that we should be speeded up complete and eating not in some kind of the Serbian section of the situation I mean run fairly you can try and pump as much liquidity as you want into the Chinese financial system it's not going to get apple to re opened its doors so I'm gonna get Qatar Airways to resume flights to China or the United States for that matter isn't it time now it to perhaps thanks to ray in a muscle prolongs meaningful slowdowns although a lot of these key economic base and as a result go a lot more defensive in your portfolio I absolutely agree with you use that for a number of reasons first of all at the impact on that the Chinese economy is going to be a much bigger than what the re soul with the previous event may not find two thousand and three with the stars and the economy at that time mama and was much is more than now and that day every option from the government that was a less severe we are talking about and keep these women are so people already closed at a TV the at least there stop would be that for birdie and then nine so we lost in two thousand and three days but on the China economy was around one percent of GDP I think at this time that we can expect the something bigger than that right Hey let's take a deal well which is the bond market and we look at some of the moves across the kind of thirty a bomb drops roast two percent for the first time since October but I want to focus in on the cuff because three months to ten years we just set it on the screen Nash has gone back into negative territory so with that in mind eight eight I'm Monday are saying look this is not a recession indicator this is an exaggerated move big calls off corona virus do you agree with Bob or is it something more prescient I I agree with their assessment that we wear respecting for the ten year treasury the sea air a range between one point five percent and two percent ending on a number of situations for day US economy and we are already at one fifty one seventy five that remains for hours the fair value all of them all day and stay near treasury and that what we are experiencing now it's obviously a flight to quality more though of the market U. S. treasury remains the cheapest way to hedge the portfolio and therefore that the demand for US treasuries now he's probably in a book they're both that as situation a damn saw what it did before in the market we can expect the father correction in the equity market dad beaks bullet that he needs it's only around eighteen percent that which is even lower than you get the Kerr bill and you know what's the last year saw is not designed it at the U. S. economy is going to go in recession that's not our base case scenario it's only a way to buy cheaper aging and and there for the corporeal all right there we have to leave it there are failing thank you very much for that rafia Tony head of debt capital markets and senior portfolio manager at Gulf investments our.

China to inject billions in liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

BTV Simulcast

03:03 min | 2 years ago

China to inject billions in liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

"With Chinese market regulators have unveiled a sea of measures to ensure stability in its forty five trillion dollar financial system the markets reopen on Monday following an extended lunar new year break it's got to on gas not rough I looked on the head of capital markets and senior portfolio manager I Gulf investment corporation who joins us on the Skype from Kuwait soul family here we go with C. S. C. instead he measures in total coming from the PD see from the regulators does that give you some sense of confidence that tonight tomorrow morning when we open that sort of that the Chinese are bottle ready to support these markets good morning my nose and all of DC's a leg a good a good that statement from the view of the sea and that and that and the China Chinese government I think that they are going to do their best to do and good with these out correct which of using the he's gonna have a big effect on on Chinese economy and and more generally on global economy we E. soul on Fridays eight PM my already going down the back school at fifty ad which is a sign that the economy was already struggling even before the outbreak and add that in there for we need that it is being exported from today Chinese authority in order to support to the economy and they yeah but and your room to do that so at the moment that I I am I think that we should be speeded up complete and eating not in some kind of the Serbian section of the situation I mean run fairly you can try and pump as much liquidity as you want into the Chinese financial system it's not going to get apple to re opened its doors so I'm gonna get Qatar Airways to resume flights to China or the United States for that matter isn't it time now it to perhaps thanks to ray in a muscle prolongs meaningful slowdowns although a lot of these key economic base and as a result go a lot more defensive in your portfolio I absolutely agree with you use that for a number of reasons first of all at the impact on that the Chinese economy is going to be a much bigger than what the re soul with the previous event may not find two thousand and three with the stars and the economy at that time mama and was much is more than now and that day every option from the government that was a less severe we are talking about and keep these women are so people already closed at a TV the at least there stop would be that for birdie and then nine so we lost in two thousand and three days but on the China economy was around one percent of GDP I think at this time that we can expect the something bigger

"gulf investment corporation" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

07:34 min | 3 years ago

"gulf investment corporation" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"In on other early spike it's fair than the previous session with similar Foxman who joins us from the other financial center in tow Simone good morning U. seven Tracy yeah quieter trading day here in the Gulf yesterday as well as really across the region the Saudi to dole moving down about four four tenths of one percent into buyer main index is roughly flat and we were about two tenths of one percent lower in both Abu Dhabi and here in Qatar now we're seeing some earnings continue for the third quarter here in the Gulf but the trickle of names is certainly it's slowing down we did see Saudi air catering missing estimates when it reported yesterday and shares their falling at the it's today were watching too and Roddy stocks first do by financial markets there we saw a third quarter profit increase almost forty five percent from the year before but the nine month number was down so we'll have to see how traders reacted that also Abu Dhabi national energy company better known as taka reported a loss as so that we could see some action they're in today's trading session finally I want to take you into our a debt markets here in the GCC on because it's an interesting move the last couple of days we saw yields on G. C. C. that fault really to levels we didn't see and and since September does a really close to record lows for yields on GCC debt this is both this is both a corporate as well as a sovereign and then in September a bunch of yours enter the market and push those yields higher we'll have to see if that continues something to bring up with your Middle East markets guess later this hour use of Traci yeah I will definitely make sure to ask anybody out of about what's going on with the C. C. bonds that some on fox and I think at our financial center and hot thank you so much for that Simone now let's talk about central banks in the Chicago fed president says no further rate changes are pencilled in for the fad Charles Evans spoke to Bloomberg in New York his first public comments since the FOMC delivered a third consecutive rate cuts I'm not even sure what neutral is anymore I think it may have moved down on a short term basis and we need to make an adjustment I would say moving from leaning towards a restrictive stance as a pastor leaning towards an accommodative stance and that's pretty much what I think we do engineers with our third rate cut at our last meeting meanwhile European central bank official Robert Holzman says monetary policy has gone as far as it can military policy seems to have reached it and coming for the negative front will quite likely not have a positive impact on the output and or inflation for this reason fiscal policy has to take over Raffaella about Tony head of debt capital markets at the Gulf investment corporation is still with us I want to start out with those comments from Charles Evans and the idea that the fed might be on hold for quite some time how long do you think that of no action could be and what would the impact of the fed on hold actually be on U. S. treasury yields my and our expectation is the fact that would be on all of that for DC here and probably the first off for the next year we assign a very small probability of another rate cut down in twenty twenty and it would depend on how how big is going to be this slow down all day US economy which by the way it with the last the GDP data surprise on on the upside who our firm base case scenarios for the economy the US economy to grow between one point five one point six percent on next year which doesn't require any any intervention from the fed that and also we should consider that scenes September defend this started to gain a way that the expansion of the partnership the so the full go but the focus of investors should be more on the size of the final shape of the fed about a shooter than on many more cuts we can have a going forward so we just correlations that have sprung up in US government the government bonds and we put the supplements you to be our clients can get this additional perspective on the Bloomberg TV goal the correlation between the benchmark Japanese government bonds and U. S. treasuries rising to the highest in over a year as a lot of the central banks to buying keep interest rates on hold ups in any further deterioration of their economies what do you telling clients in terms of exposure to some of these place movement Dow water however view is that the next year visited weekend off the specter this and the money to do it on a we had this year and double digit that and I thought that it down for fixed income assets is something that the you can see no very often and next year is going to be an monsoon more muted to thought that I've done the market that I I actually they did the the U. Kerr was so flat that everywhere in the war that conditions become and interesting once a gain how respected that put it on for example for I am a U. S. A. common in months it next year is going to be in the range of one point five one point six percent which is is up to their a ton of cash and therefore on the in our bill the best strategy going for what would be a bar but before you where we increase the size of the cash and we had to and we and increases despite direct on a using emerging markets and they use that which are very attractive at the moment and I I visited using government loans and and investment grade corporate bond to sort by but with the the safest part of all of the market cash and a million more you've been parked all for the emerging market that you had the market I mentioned that we had some comments from the ECB is Robert Holtzman where he seemed to be talking about the limits of monetary policy lots of officials in Europe are talking and seemingly pinning their hopes on the prospect of fiscal stimulus what are the chances that we actually got some fiscal action out of the eurozone I think they brought me these very I I already Germany stock data increasing some spending and government is able to in the range of about one percent of the GDP I don't know if it's an offer to for for the German economy and the European economy a little a lot to to grow if I I in March fasa space foster at babies it's a it's a starting point I I it's a positive sign and also because I from the C. B. we cannot the spread them much more everything they they could do as being already done and actually it negative rates are becoming for such a prolonged period of time high becoming a softball via drive home grown feeds it docks an incremental stock some consumers so on on savers and in particular I saw I think we will see more activity a governmental level ending a lesson from these to be going forward yeah we're certainly saying more conoce talk about the reversal rate as well that's fairly for Tony head of debt capital markets at the Gulf investment corps corporations he's.