18 Burst results for "Greg Jensen"

"greg jensen" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

02:46 min | 3 months ago

"greg jensen" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Good morning I'm Nathan And I'm Karen Moscow U.S. future is looking at stage a comeback They're rebounding off the worst levels this morning and moving higher We're coming up to 5 O one on Wall Street and we check the markets every 15 minutes throughout the trading day on Bloomberg S&P futures have 5 points down futures up 6 NASDAQ futures up 54 The Dax in Germany is down four tenths of a percent and your treasury up 6 30 seconds yield 1.84% Nathan Karen stocks did sell off overnight after yesterday's hawkish tilt from the fed but U.S. futures are bouncing back from session lows J Powell signaled a march interest rate hike but also stoked speculation about more aggressive policy in the months ahead I think there's quite a bit of room to raise interest rates without threatening the labor market By so many measures historically tight labor market With a yield curve flattened on the heels of those comments from Jay Powell this morning two year yields are rising while tenants and 30s fall former fed vice chair Alan blinder expects a rate hike at every meeting this year Think about where we are now We're almost at a zero rate of four rate hike puts you just above 1% That's hardly a Central Bank that's trying to clamp down on its economy Former vice chair Alan blinder says the fed will continue to be data dependent on this morning money markets are now pricing 5 rate hikes from the fed this year Nathan U.S. stocks sank after the fed decision and that trend continued overnight with heavy selling in Asia We get the recap from Bloomberg's Juliet Sally in Singapore Good morning Julia Good morning Karen the MSCI Asia Pacific index posted its biggest drop since February to hold at 14 month lows as a number of indexes in the region teetered on or entered bear market and correction territory China's CSI 300 filled 20% from its February peak to enter a bear market South Korea's Cosby also entering a bear market Australia's ASX 200 was down 10% from its August peak to enter correction In Singapore Juliet sali Bloomberg daybreak All right Julian thank you So how much further is the Federal Reserve willing to let stocks slide We have a prediction from the world's biggest hedge fund Bloomberg's who need a young joins us live with the details Good morning Good morning Nathan It's the burning question of the moment for market watchers and Bridgewater associates co chief investment officer Greg Jensen says the fed could let stocks drop as much as 20% more That would put the S&P 500 below 3500 near its pre-pandemic level Justin says so far the decline over the past few weeks has been mostly healthy because it's deflated some of the bubbles like cryptocurrencies live in New York I'm ready to young Bloomberg daybreak Renee thank you Stocks are also under pressure this morning from earnings including disappointing results from Intel that ship makers out with a weak profit forecast for the current quarter and we get the story from.

fed Alan blinder Nathan Karen J Powell Bloomberg Jay Powell U.S. Nathan Juliet Sally Julia Good Moscow sali Bloomberg Germany Singapore Central Bank Asia Pacific
"greg jensen" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

07:51 min | 7 months ago

"greg jensen" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Growth as well It doesn't need to be inflationary I'm not worried about revenue There's certainly plenty of demand out there pretty much across the board The issue is can that demand be fulfilled This is Bloomberg surveillance with Tom Keene Jonathan farrow and Lisa Abramovich A bit of risk aversion this Wednesday from New York City for our audience worldwide Good morning good morning This is Bloomberg surveillance live on TV and radio alongside Tom Keane and Lisa brahmin I'm Jonathan Ferro This Wednesday futures negative 53 we're down on the S&P 1.2% Tom keen on the NASDAQ which M1 point four We are down 1.4% It's moving out there as well And John as you said in the last hour you go to the currency dynamics as well What about the thundering silence of the weak dollar crew I mean it is stunning how that is stopped Strong dollar this morning Tom risk aversion the thread of higher yields is pretty clear isn't it You buy the green pack You find the U.S. dollar dollar index 90 through 94 ton We're positive four tenths of 1% there Right And the CDS market the credit default swap market some of those indicators showing attention Yes it folds into Washington As well John our guests coming up here really is pushed against weak dollar for months and months and months Margaret McCormack looks like a genius Looking forward to that Is it fair to say the epicenter of all of this is energy The percent are certainly natural gas in particular And when you take a look at the United Kingdom that's even more the epicenter where you see prices absolutely surging But there's a bigger story here And that is the transition of an economy at a time of a perfect storm I mean how many factors do we talk about Supply chain disruptions A pandemic And then you deal with the fact that we're trying to transition to greener energy You put them all together and it's a mess Do you remember the hopes of September Lisa Yes do you have a good fun What happened to September It turned into October And now we're talking about maybe it's not going to come She won 22 Well are we even though do people expect her to be a sort of moment where we realize yeah we're all able to go travel again I think that those hopes are fading And I think that's what we're feeling And that's just an idea of the conversation right now And here's the setup this Wednesday Let's put through the price section Equity futures are negative for the lower The S&P 500 is lighter by about 1.2% The NASDAQ is down 200 We're negative 1.4% into the bond market Given what is taking place in the equity market in the bond market right now they're not big moves rubber basis point of two on ten One 54 32 ton I walked in and was surprised I'm sorry I think I saw one 55 tenure They're not big moves but the vectors in the right direction It's the system Correlation It's persistent Yields have been moving higher off the lows of early August from one to 58 through one 54 and threatening to go even higher from here The FX market talked a little bit about that dollar strength and Lisa you wrote down one 1540 negative a half of 1% And to me the story of the yields and the story of the dollar go very much together the idea that here you have a risk off mood bonds are not a haven Why Because what is the threshold for the fed to start tapering the $120 billion of monthly bond purchases That threshold has gotten a lot lower 8 15 a.m. we get U.S. September 80 P employment change The expectation is for it to indicate perhaps a bit of a better jobs report on Friday However of course this is not necessarily that negative Again what is the threshold for the Federal Reserve A lot of people are saying that the bar has been lowered They want to stop buying bonds even if the economy is showing some strains So at 11 a.m. President Biden is hosting a meeting with business leaders including the CEOs of Bank of America and Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan to talk about the debt ceiling expect a lot of catastrophic discussion about the potential risks of defaulting does this matter to anyone You do see that the T Bill yields have been rising however still not indicating the same kind of distress that we saw throughout markets back in 2011 And today is the second day of the Bloomberg invest conference You've got a host of great speakers including Michael or Getty of Ares as well as Greg Johnson of Bridgewater and highs of Wellington management The interesting thing to me John has been what they have been saying about China The world's second biggest economy slowing down increasing regulatory risk they do not want to own it And I think that this is important The idea that Don Fitzpatrick of Soros came out and said we are not putting money into China right now She is not alone People rethinking their strategies at a time when they're looking for diversification but not at the risk of regulatory uncertainty to this degree Always brilliant here from Greg Jensen British water really looking forward to that Lisa thank you so much A classic risk of setup in G ten in foreign exchange looks like this Outperforming the yen and the Swiss sea That's why you've got today underperforming the commodity currencies The likes of the RC the likes of Norway that's also what you have today We need to talk about foreign exchange Your backdrop this morning a stronger dollar Mark McCormick a TV securities the global head of FX strategy joins us right now Mark a story of performance over narratives your line start there unpack that for me Yeah it's a great question because I think what we have is there's a lot of narratives There's narratives around real rates about central banks around stagflation reflation all these dynamics related to this kind of transition period we're going through as well And I think what the performance tells us is that currencies are respecting mean reversion They're trading off of mean reversion based strategies valuation positioning these things that are really kind of technical they sit behind the scenes but they're just not really sexy macro stories It's not really about the fed It's not really about what's going on in some of these global dynamics But the point is if you're trading FX a core strategy that focus on mean reversion plus growth plus terms of trade and plus the risk aversion dynamics we see is really the combination that's done great through this declaration period or this stagflation narrative through the summer So I think that's a big part of it is again thinking about what's driving FX in terms of performance and what's rewarding currencies versus what's being discussed as a narrative If there is an interest rate dynamic and then you go over to a flow analysis and Mark you've nailed this over the last year with dollar resilience Are we near big figure jump conditions in the major pairs I don't we are but we're also not This is where the performance analysis comes in The question is is does the move in these currencies reflect a risk premium Or are they moving with fundamentals And the flow side is really kind of what drive us away from fundamentals So when you think about Euro it does look it's screaming very cheap right now in terms of positioning short term valuation But again the flows can push us maybe to one 1450 one 15 But again there's not a dynamic here that we've seen Euro move lower at this magnitude where it's kind of validated by the move in the relationship it has to other macro drivers So that's where again the flow dynamics are important But if you look at the weakness in the end it is calibrated quite well with the weakness that we've seen or the relationship we have across yield curves and inflation dynamics in terms of trade shock that we're dealing with now So dollar yen moving higher is a bit of a more sticky trade relative to what we've seen in the Euro at least in the very short run How damaging is the strong dollar right now for emerging market currencies considering that this is exactly what they do not want to see A higher inflationary premium in developed markets certainly in the rates markets Right across the board is challenging and you can see it's probably challenging because if you look at the relationship of Euro in revenue we should remedy should be trading at 6 80 That's your historical correlation over a running couple of years So you can see that a lot of it is managed A lot of it is kind of coming through back in G ten It's probably running through gold prices as well You know some of these more liquid currencies You can see Koreas Been sold off quite aggressively So yeah I do think a big part of the relationship with EM is EM as a whole is going to underperform as markets are repricing the fed the real pricing rail rates They're dealing with stagflation But there are winners on a relative basis in EM If you think about central banks that are hiking if you look at growth stories that are generally okay if you look at the terms of trade shock and who wins the miters and the exporters and the.

Tom Keene Jonathan farrow Lisa Abramovich Tom Keane Lisa brahmin Jonathan Ferro Margaret McCormack Lisa John President Biden CEOs of Bank of America Don Fitzpatrick fed Greg Jensen
"greg jensen" Discussed on Capital Allocators

Capital Allocators

06:14 min | 9 months ago

"greg jensen" Discussed on Capital Allocators

"The type of investing that you do. I think so. We're have to translate disinter results. But really in the last fifteen years we haven't had it imbalances across countries of this magnitude to have as like you're saying such big macro policy monitoring fiscal policy. What we call him three about the fusion of monetary and fiscal policy understanding where that money is going what it's going to mean for what countries for what sectors what currencies this is as big as ripe in area in my view as we've had certainly since the post financial crisis period are measures there has got to the biggest signals. We've had in a long time. And so i think it should be a very ripe said of opportunities four macro managers who understand this range of policy and what that's likely to me now. It's going to be an easy road because there is also the low sample size in the sense that this merger monetary and fiscal policy like understanding where the limits are that. I think the path is pretty easy to see. We're gonna keep pushing is a world the us in particular prince as much money as you can spend much money as you can until it causes the natural problems that it'll cause whether that plays out over a year plays out over five years or ten years. I i don't know. But i think that destiny is clear and it's the trajectory of that so it's interesting to live through a bond rally into an exploding economy an economy that we think will nominal gdp will continue to rise and extremely fast rates normally a cyclical period. That would clearly leading to rising interest rates. But instead he's got the fad purposely lagging it allowing that to go. I believe that setting up a much bigger bond selloff in straight rise in the markets are expecting. But you know you live through this and you see. It's a reminder of how difficult despite all those measures in the pressures and everything that you're seeing how difficult it is to predict how the markets will react to fundamental events particularly in a shorter. So i do think you've got these big balances. I think it setting up a tremendous amount of opportunities but how the policy levers will be pulled is always more challenging to predict an easier to see. In retrospect then as you go through it perspective. I think this setup is really good and we'll see i think the biggest thing happening is this explosion in nominal. Gb grows into shortages at a time where the fed is allowing that to happen. You have the lowest real interest rates who've had forty years and setting up an environment that's very different than the last twenty twenty five years and yet the markets are still so slow. I think to react to that difference. Though that sit up you describing is one that would nearly lead to inflation. And i know that bridgewater and you in particular. I've done a little work looking at inflation. So what do you think about the inflation question. You've imply that you think outside given your comments on yields and bomb markets potentially selling off but can you walk through the thinking on that. It's interesting because if you take most of our experiences last forty years right. There's been what i think five major contributors to the disinflationary wave and we can argue about how important each that were. But it started with volker monetary policy in the early eighties deciding that have low inflation taking the pain of having high real interest rates and causing a economic decline in order to get to sustainable inflation rates. So first thing was high real interest rates in central bankers deciding that we're gonna have lower inflation. The second thing was globalization so you get the interest rate declining globalization with the globalization of this very pro corporate environment where union power is stripped. Labor power is stripped and great tax environment. All of which would make this incredibly pro-corporate environment on the base of monetary policy. That was focused on controlling inflation and finally and hopefully quite importantly was the technological enhancements. That allowed for more and more production at lower and lower marginal costs. So that's the range of things now. You've stripped away. Almost all of those except for technology. You're no longer in such an incredibly pro-corporate environment. You're no longer in a world where the central banks are tried to prevent inflation. In fact they're trying to cause it that you're no longer in a world of fiscal concern. You're no longer in a world of globalization in fact you're shifting from having the most efficient to the most stable supply lines and you're seeing it is the shortages that you're seeing that basically a shift in the view of how to create inventories going from on time delivery big inventories being a big problem to the people that have inventory getting huge benefits. So this big shift is happening. And while i think technology will continue to be major deflationary force. You can overwhelming that by printing. Money and in fact policy-wise you probably should that translating the benefits of technology the way it was working going very limited sat people to using that deflationary force to allow more fiscal policy and more glaze asian across matadi in terms of the benefits of the technology. And so you're seeing and you're seeing that fast and while i don't know if we've done enough to tip the scale i think we might have but i really think if we haven't and we go into another disinflationary wave that you'll get more and that's where the incentives e very clear in the end. The destiny seems clear on top of that when you look at the markets and you think about how will these markets be sustained that today peoper wealth has never been anywhere near this high relative becomes relative to the cash flows that support that paper wealth while for households as an example or six times income way beyond anything it's ever been and wealth across the world relative. Big guns are at record levels. Have you took what it would take the pay off the corporate debt plus the corporate equity value in us equities..

volker fed us matadi
"greg jensen" Discussed on Capital Allocators

Capital Allocators

07:30 min | 9 months ago

"greg jensen" Discussed on Capital Allocators

"On the website and click university in the menu to learn more steven. Great to see you and thanks for doing this. Thanks to great to be here. Why love to this off. By just asking the nature and duration of your relationship with bridgewater. But i guess my relationship was bridgewater extends across a couple of funds for around nine years i worked with the future fund which is australia's sovereign wealth fund and the last two and a bit years. I'd been with new zealand super. Which is you see. It on. Software wealth fund and both funds invest and bridgewater. So my first say close. Contact with the folks. There would have been in two thousand nine when i joined the future fund. Although of course. I was familiar with the name. I really familiar with exactly. What bridge waited until i arrived. Melvin and so now eleven years later how would you describe what it is bridgewater. Does i think the best will have describing. It is to think about the logic for why markets work to systematize it and to continually refine that systematisation of the process. So it's not about reinventing the wheel every time. So they collect huge amounts of data the analyze things. and there's a logic which drives what they do. And when i say that that's really the more discretionary trading activities but they also very well known for what they call a with which is a risk parity portfolio so those are the two main arms of bridgewater's investments so in both instances. It sounds like you walked into a seat where there was an existing relationship with bridgewater. And i'm curious as you think about the organization how you compare them to another alternative to doing something like what they do. It's hard to compare because there aren't many others can think of that. Actually follow the same sort of logic that bridgewater would so they start from thinking about how the world works and that shapes the whole process other macro funds up hats even more discretionary or they a more reliance on the signals that come from price movements so bridge some rain between i think the other thing that stands out with bridgewater is it as being a huge focus on client support cloud service so bridgewater folks really want to know how their investors work and are great source of intellectual property for me as an invest. So i can go to them and awesome acquistions. They also produce a wealth of research they come out with the daily she which is very well read by the people who this with them and of course everyone will. Most people will know of ray delio. Who is quite strong communicate up. He's got mrs to to live up and the stages career keys against fully ensconced in doing that so he's been writing books so people do get to understand more about the principles drive bridgewater's thinking so you have this organization that thinks about the world and does research quite differently. Services clients quite differently from others. And then you have this piece that bridgewater's very well known for the application of these principles and that is actually something that didn't come up in your conversation with greg. So how do you think about as a client this unique. Let's just call it. Culture of the organization and its strengths and weaknesses. I think it helps to understand that. That's what drives a lot of orders. Bridgewater op-ed frame. It has red transparency. And i guess if you stand back and you say well what's wrong with that that makes sense because it's about searching for the truth and being open and being open to those ideas but of course in reality people often find that confronting so i think if it's radical transparency with respect. That's five actually liked that approach. I can't say that everyone feels comfortable then environment. So let's turn to thinking about bridgewater in the context of your portfolio. Your total portfolio approach is quite different is a conversation i had with matt on the show about weird is the allocation bridgewater fit in. Will we run what we refer to as a reference portfolio so where a growthorientated fun because we have a very long horizon. so you can think of l. portfolio's being approximately eight equities and twenty percent bonds now for us to deviate from that. We have to think that whatever investing it is going to do better then some combination of equities and fixed income so think of it as being like the funding source that we use for someone like bridgewater they will describe the strategy as market neutral. We'll look back and say well. Maybe it's not quite mark utilize close to that so we'll look at funding it from that riffles fully. They talked about some combination of equities and bonds so we would expect the investment and bridgewater or anything else. That's active to do better than that passive funding strategy. So it has to do that. In the case of bridgewater there's also the the intellectual exchange the research so we will cool on them harass them to help us with various questions and they can be an active two way debate and dialogue dust year. We went through the review of griffin's portfolio which essentially expresses our risk appetite or unusual portfolio. And we asked ridgewood of the question. I guys if you were us without mandate how you construct a portfolio and that was quite helpful for us in terms of challenging ourselves and thinking about well has a pool fully. Compare what we do differently if we were them. It didn't actually end up with us changing much but was very helpful to have some external party who knows us come in and actually test us so when it comes to brass tacks on position size you have an organization that is very different in some ways you could say unique the way they approach the world the way they invest. You can't really fill a bucket of bridgewater's so how do you think about how big is appropriate for that one manager in your. That's a great question is a great question because the size is going to be a function of fat confident we are and their ability to deliver and it's also going to be a function of all the other investment opportunities that we have so i can't give you a straight answer apart from saying that those are the considerations i would also say that it's took quite hard to find skill and if you can't find it sometimes it's difficult to excess and sometimes it's difficult to scale so we think about all those things when thinking about the sizing sometimes we just can't get the size at like or we can't get the extra sit with like steven really appreciate it again. And thanks for being a greg show. Thanks very much did leeann greg. Thanks very much for agreeing to speak with me. I'm very interested in hearing about how you got into.

bridgewater ray delio ed frame Melvin steven new zealand australia mrs greg matt griffin leeann greg
"greg jensen" Discussed on The Hugh Hewitt Show: Highly Concentrated

The Hugh Hewitt Show: Highly Concentrated

05:46 min | 11 months ago

"greg jensen" Discussed on The Hugh Hewitt Show: Highly Concentrated

"Hewitt joined now by brian. Westbury chief economist at i trust portfolio. Good morning brian. A hugh great to be with you this week. Thank you the federal reserve chairman. Jerome powell testified. Yesterday that increases in prices have been larger than central bankers expected and may prove more persistent but he underscored his view that shortages including of used cars computer chips and workers will fade over time bringing inflation closer to the feds. Two percents target bob. Prince chimed any runs bridgewater associates. With ray and greg jensen saying that look price rice's you're gonna get some inflation but it will be moderate and it will not be global reaction. Brian westbury you know the with the fed in december of last year so we only have five months of data for this year. December was saying one point. Eight percent inflation in twenty twenty one then in march they raise that to to two point four percent and then in last last week they raised it to three point. Four percents it's actually going to end up over four and a half percent and it is true that shortages of semiconductors and what's happened to us cars lumber all of these things a lot of it has to do with the pandemic and supply chain problems. and does the government handing out money for people to spend when they're not producing anything when you have too much demand And not enough supply. You do get a kind of driven inflation. That's not real inflation as louis seizes milton. Friedman friedrich hayek. They're all the of people Should know they said that inflation was printing money. So if you think about this. The federal reserve has added thirty percent more money into the system than we had in february of twenty. Twenty unless squeak in greece all the goods and services in the united states by thirty percents above where we were pre ed That means we have more money chasing fewer goods in other words we. There's no way we're going to recover all of our gdp and then boost our gdp by thirty percent anytime soon so we have too much money chasing too few goods even if we fix those supply chain problems that funny because there's too much of it will buy less now bryant. The number one long tail product is housing. And i note a related couple of stories blackstone which i think is the finest run investment firm in the united states. Founded by steve schwartzman. But part of america's today for six billion that seventeen thousand more homes in the blackstone portfolio while the financial times was reporting that house prices climbed to record levels in the us and europe with us existing. Home prices jumping twenty three point six percent. Now the problem is you can't turn out more houses. The planning tale the entitlement tale the acquisition tale the construction. It's years and years so you will not be able to catch up on housing in any kind of reasonable range and that will drive inflation everywhere as lumber etc as people building scarce and highly desired houses go out and bid up everything that goes into a house. That's exactly right. No houses are i mean. Real estate is a great investment. The past year. I've been telling people to buy broad basket commodities Staying in their real estate by materails companies who make these products To build houses to bill just about anything and and because they're all going to benefit from rising prices and yes we have shortages and now we don't have enough workers were paying people not to work all of that. All of that causes Inflation of or at least rising prices What's true what powell said. That is true was of fen showy once we stopping people not to work once supply chains. He'll that will go away so that that part of the inflation is transitory but I mean debris repeating myself. Because i this is the key ingredient if you print more money. It's the think about if we have a paper crop of corn then. The price of corn goes down. And so if you have a bumper crop of dollars then the value of the dollar goes down. It buys last house it buys last car. It buys less of everything because there's more dollars have been printed then goods and services that we created quick. Now you're paying for place you if you think it's going to be four point three percent this year what's your projection. For twenty twenty two the annual inflationary rate. You have probably foreign it for half percent for twenty twenty two so when you when you print thirty percent you unless you increase your output. You will end up with thirty percent. Inflation and i don't.

brian steve schwartzman thirty percent six billion Eight percent December march four percent Jerome powell december blackstone thirty percents Brian westbury half percent twenty twenty two three point three percent five months Twenty six percent
"greg jensen" Discussed on 860AM The Answer

860AM The Answer

01:49 min | 11 months ago

"greg jensen" Discussed on 860AM The Answer

"Powell testified yesterday that increases in prices have been larger than central bankers had expected. And may prove more persistent. But he underscored his view that shortages, including of used cars, computer chips and workers will fade over time, bringing inflation closer to the Fed's 2% target. Bob Prince chimed any runs Bridgewater Associates, with Ray Dalio and Greg Jensen, saying that Look, Price. Rice is going to get some inflation, but it will be moderate, and it will not be global. Your reaction Brian Westbury. Um, you know, with the Fed in December of last year, so we only have five months of data for this year, December was saying 1.8% inflation. In 2021. Then in March, they raised that. To 2.4%. And then in last last week, they raised it to 3.4%. It's actually going to end up over 4.5%. And it is true that shortages of semiconductors and what then happened to used cars, lumber all of these things a lot of it has to do with the pandemic. And supply chain problems. Uh, and the government handing out money for people to spend when they're not producing anything when you have too much demand. And not enough supply. You do get kind of driven inflation. That's not Real inflation as Ludwig von Mieses built Friedman Friedrich Hayak. They are all economists that people should know. They said that inflation was printing money. So if you think about this The Federal.

Greg Jensen Brian Westbury March Bob Prince 3.4% Ludwig von Mieses 1.8% December Bridgewater Associates Ray Dalio 2021 2.4% yesterday Powell five months last last week this year Fed Rice over 4.5%
"greg jensen" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

02:52 min | 1 year ago

"greg jensen" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"A pandemic. Should the Federal Reserve be juicing markets this aggressively or is now the time to start putting the genie back in the bottle? What it hearkens back a little bit to my time in 2000 and 7 2008. It's very similar in some ways and different in other ways, But the bottom line is we're in a moment where we have the health crisis and the economic crisis. And we're really at the end of an era and in the midst of a paradigm shift, where our ability to respond to the economic challenges we have with monetary policy alone is much more limited. Then it has been because of the enormity of what's already been done. And you know the low interest rate environment we we live in. And as a consequence, we think we're going to see much more of, you know, MP three, which we refer to which is the combination of fiscal and monetary and unfortunately At this moment, there's gonna have to be a lot of policy intervention to get us through this. This patch. The consequences of not responding in a very forceful way are pretty dramatic. But like anything else, taking big steps like that, in public policy have Enormous 2nd and 3rd order questions and we're gonna 2nd and 3rd order consequences. Rather, we're gonna have to deal with those. And so we're gonna have to deal with the added indebtedness and the challenges that faces and eventually we're gonna have to Again to transition back to more normalcy and monetary policy. But I think that the time to do that is is likely much more in the future than in the in the media. David, You're not one of the investors at Bridgewater. That's have to Ray Dalio and Bob prints and Greg Jensen, principally, but your various stewed observer of financial markets and a student Of markets and the economy. There's a lot of talk these days about a bubble. You think we're in a bubble? Well, I think we're at a moment of you know, enormous uncertainty where public policy eyes having more of an impact on markets than that. You know it certainly at any time and in my adult lifetime, and so that has a number of consequences to it. And what we're seeing is really a divergence. How the real economy and the markets are responding to what happened, and eventually that divergence will have to be reconciled. But in the immediate term because of the likelihood of continued policy response, I think we're going to see market behaviors that are very you know, are very broad, ranging in terms of how things play out. And the reason for that is you've got The dynamics of the pandemic and the uncertainty around that you have the dynamics in the uncertainty around the policy response. You have the uncertainty around our political situation and polarization that we see and you have the uncertainty globally and geopolitically with U. S and China..

Federal Reserve Ray Dalio Bridgewater U. S China Greg Jensen David Bob prints
"greg jensen" Discussed on Money For the Rest of Us

Money For the Rest of Us

06:27 min | 1 year ago

"greg jensen" Discussed on Money For the Rest of Us

"Last week in the insiders guide email newsletter I pointed out the expensive valuation of US stocks. . Specifically I showed that the forward price to earnings ratio the P. E. based on earnings estimates over the next year was twenty, , two point nine. . That's three standard deviations above its average of sixteen times going back to two thousand, , three at data from Ned Davis. . Research. . In reply to that email, , Andrew wrote regarding stocks being expensive on a forward e true but there's no alternative. . What do you do with bond yields near Zero and the vanguard total stock market? ? Index. . Fund. . Yielding two percent. . By VPI, , the vanguard total stock market ETF. . JASA forwarded to me a paper by Bridgewater says, , which I'll discuss in more detail later in this episode. . I had a similar question from a plus member in the money for the rest of US plus member forums. . He wrote. . So the Fed signals that it wants to keep rates low for three more years. . Canada's pension. . Fund is reevaluating bond-holdings and you've got an army of small and large investors bidding up companies like Tesla and snowflake to absurdly hype. . All this combined to make me think are we as individual investors now forced to buy equities? ? Is this the mother of all bubbles in which there's literally no other things suitable for purchase. . There is a lot of speculation in stocks right now. . Jim. . Bianco Bianca Research pointed out that small traders are dominating the options market. . Bear most of the trades right now and seventy five percent of that volume is an option contracts expire in two weeks. . So short term bets. . Look at South Korea and article from Bloomberg pointed out that day traders in South Korea have accounted for eighty seven and a half percent of the total value of stocks traded in the first part of September. . You. . Some men chief strategist at Samsung Securities said retail investors appear to be seeking short-term profits after hearing their next door neighbors earned lots of money from stocks after the March selloff. . Receiving a similar situation in India. . The Financial Times reports that the number of individual investor accounts rose twenty percent from the start of the year, , the twenty, , four million, , and they point out that around the world, , an influx of investors are investing in stocks for the first time. . Are. . We in a bubble? ? Is it a speculative frenzy? ? Are we forced to buy these stocks because there are no alternatives with also? ? One of the things I like to do investing is think about what's different this time what's unusual? ? What what doesn't fit the pattern? ? I had two instances of investing this past week where something didn't fit the pattern Lebron, , I were driving up in the mountains of Montana and a small bear cub really bolted right in front of us no idea what it was running from. . My son suggested he was running from the year twenty twenty. . And then few days later at our front door, , there were seven cows drinking water from the driveway eating our bushes. . There are no cows around us. . We live in an area that nobody keeps cows but there they were right in front of my house. . Turns out. . They had strayed from the National Forest, , which is not very far some outfitters have grazing rights and drop off the cows and leave them there all summer pick them up come late October, , and they had straight down because some of that newly cut barley fields, , but it didn't fit the pattern. . Cows at your front door. . Don't fit the pattern. . What's different now on investing front that could justify more expensive valuations for stocks. . Well, , for the first time, , ever US interest rates are near zero from short term out to ten years. . This is known as a flat yield curve, , which is an unusual. . We've had flat yield curves in the past. . But it's flat near zero. . There was a flat yield curve where ten treasury bonds and cash for yielding similar back from two thousand and five to two thousand seven. . But yielding four percent. . And from two thousand to two, , thousand, , two cash and tenure treasures were yielding five to six percent. . Today, , the ten year Treasury yield is zero point, six , percent and cash is zero. . The Federal Reserve intense to keep it that way. . The recent policy statement suggests that they will keep their policy rate. . What's known as the Fed funds rate near zero until labor market conditions have improved. . The. Unemployment . rate has dropped close to to to maximum employment and that inflation has risen to two percent is on track to moderately exceed two percent. . They included their economic and rate projections and all, , but four officials on the committee. . Expect the Fed funds rate is still be near zero at the end of twenty, , twenty three. . Rates are low across the board. . It is a different investment environment than we have ever faced before. . And that's what this paper by bridgewater associates was about. . It was titled Grappling With the New Reality of zero bond yields virtually everywhere. . It was written by Bob Prince Greg Jensen Melissa fear, , and Jim Haskell. . I. . Discussed Bridgewater Associates Founder Ray dallies views back in episode three, , hundred changing world order in this paper bills off that. . Before we continue let me pause and share some words from one of this week sponsors masterworks. . I've shared on the show how low interest rates are on bonds and yields and cash about zero money has to be invested somewhere in preserving your wealth is as hard as it's ever been. . That's where masterworks comes in. . If you're looking to diversify out of the traditional public markets, , then take a look at masterworks. . They make blue chip art investing possible works by artists like Banksie, , 'cause and Warhol. . Art is a one point seven trillion dollar asset class that has performed better than s five hundred by one hundred and eighty percent between two thousand and two thousand eighteen according to Citibank. .

US South Korea David Stein Bianco Bianca Research chief strategist Ned Davis Fed VPI India Samsung Securities Bridgewater Andrew Canada Tesla Bloomberg Jim
Are We Being Forced to Buy Stocks

Money For the Rest of Us

06:27 min | 1 year ago

Are We Being Forced to Buy Stocks

"Last week in the insiders guide email newsletter I pointed out the expensive valuation of US stocks. Specifically I showed that the forward price to earnings ratio the P. E. based on earnings estimates over the next year was twenty, two point nine. That's three standard deviations above its average of sixteen times going back to two thousand, three at data from Ned Davis. Research. In reply to that email, Andrew wrote regarding stocks being expensive on a forward e true but there's no alternative. What do you do with bond yields near Zero and the vanguard total stock market? Index. Fund. Yielding two percent. By VPI, the vanguard total stock market ETF. JASA forwarded to me a paper by Bridgewater says, which I'll discuss in more detail later in this episode. I had a similar question from a plus member in the money for the rest of US plus member forums. He wrote. So the Fed signals that it wants to keep rates low for three more years. Canada's pension. Fund is reevaluating bond-holdings and you've got an army of small and large investors bidding up companies like Tesla and snowflake to absurdly hype. All this combined to make me think are we as individual investors now forced to buy equities? Is this the mother of all bubbles in which there's literally no other things suitable for purchase. There is a lot of speculation in stocks right now. Jim. Bianco Bianca Research pointed out that small traders are dominating the options market. Bear most of the trades right now and seventy five percent of that volume is an option contracts expire in two weeks. So short term bets. Look at South Korea and article from Bloomberg pointed out that day traders in South Korea have accounted for eighty seven and a half percent of the total value of stocks traded in the first part of September. You. Some men chief strategist at Samsung Securities said retail investors appear to be seeking short-term profits after hearing their next door neighbors earned lots of money from stocks after the March selloff. Receiving a similar situation in India. The Financial Times reports that the number of individual investor accounts rose twenty percent from the start of the year, the twenty, four million, and they point out that around the world, an influx of investors are investing in stocks for the first time. Are. We in a bubble? Is it a speculative frenzy? Are we forced to buy these stocks because there are no alternatives with also? One of the things I like to do investing is think about what's different this time what's unusual? What what doesn't fit the pattern? I had two instances of investing this past week where something didn't fit the pattern Lebron, I were driving up in the mountains of Montana and a small bear cub really bolted right in front of us no idea what it was running from. My son suggested he was running from the year twenty twenty. And then few days later at our front door, there were seven cows drinking water from the driveway eating our bushes. There are no cows around us. We live in an area that nobody keeps cows but there they were right in front of my house. Turns out. They had strayed from the National Forest, which is not very far some outfitters have grazing rights and drop off the cows and leave them there all summer pick them up come late October, and they had straight down because some of that newly cut barley fields, but it didn't fit the pattern. Cows at your front door. Don't fit the pattern. What's different now on investing front that could justify more expensive valuations for stocks. Well, for the first time, ever US interest rates are near zero from short term out to ten years. This is known as a flat yield curve, which is an unusual. We've had flat yield curves in the past. But it's flat near zero. There was a flat yield curve where ten treasury bonds and cash for yielding similar back from two thousand and five to two thousand seven. But yielding four percent. And from two thousand to two, thousand, two cash and tenure treasures were yielding five to six percent. Today, the ten year Treasury yield is zero point, six percent and cash is zero. The Federal Reserve intense to keep it that way. The recent policy statement suggests that they will keep their policy rate. What's known as the Fed funds rate near zero until labor market conditions have improved. The. Unemployment rate has dropped close to to to maximum employment and that inflation has risen to two percent is on track to moderately exceed two percent. They included their economic and rate projections and all, but four officials on the committee. Expect the Fed funds rate is still be near zero at the end of twenty, twenty three. Rates are low across the board. It is a different investment environment than we have ever faced before. And that's what this paper by bridgewater associates was about. It was titled Grappling With the New Reality of zero bond yields virtually everywhere. It was written by Bob Prince Greg Jensen Melissa fear, and Jim Haskell. I. Discussed Bridgewater Associates Founder Ray dallies views back in episode three, hundred changing world order in this paper bills off that. Before we continue let me pause and share some words from one of this week sponsors masterworks. I've shared on the show how low interest rates are on bonds and yields and cash about zero money has to be invested somewhere in preserving your wealth is as hard as it's ever been. That's where masterworks comes in. If you're looking to diversify out of the traditional public markets, then take a look at masterworks. They make blue chip art investing possible works by artists like Banksie, 'cause and Warhol. Art is a one point seven trillion dollar asset class that has performed better than s five hundred by one hundred and eighty percent between two thousand and two thousand eighteen according to Citibank.

United States Federal Reserve Jim Haskell South Korea Ned Davis Bridgewater Bridgewater Associates Financial Times Andrew Bianco Bianca Research Canada India VPI Tesla Bob Prince Banksie
"greg jensen" Discussed on C-SPAN Radio

C-SPAN Radio

05:46 min | 1 year ago

"greg jensen" Discussed on C-SPAN Radio

"And so there might they might come up short in this policy. But longer term they're going to keep printing and spending until they hit the wall. The wall will be marked by inflation and currency. And so for us, I think the broader positioning should be consistent with governments printing money and spending money until you see problematic inflation, which, as the fat is described is significantly higher than their inflation target. So we're going to see this play out. You'll have the seesaw of politics make it Difficult, but largely you're eventually going to get spending and printing until you hit that secular turning point where that becomes to inflation. Those comments from Greg Jensen, he is with the hedge fund firm Bridgewater Associates. The full interview courtesy of CNBC, now to the president who traveled to Kenosha, Wisconsin. Today. It is, of course, has been the site of unrest in the wake of the police shooting of Jacob Blake 29 years old, despite calls by the governor and the mayor of the city to stay away, the president Viewing property damage. He also held a roundtable on community safety. The trip comes as the president seeks to frame the race in this election against his Democratic opponent, Joe Biden. Around law enforcement issues more from Wisconsin. Do you know? The sad thing is you could do 10,000 great jobs is a policeman or a policewoman. You could do an incredible job for years and then you have one bad apple or something happens. That's been and that's the nightly news for three weeks. That's all they talk about. They don't talk about the thousands and thousands of good jobs, the lives that you saved. They never talk about. So I'm committed to helping Kenosha rebuild. We all are. We will provide $1 million to the Kenosha law enforcement so that you have some extra money to go out and do what you have to do. You took a rough It was a rough week to put it mildly, and you've done it incredibly well. I'm also providing nearly $4 million to support these small businesses that I talked about today that got burned up and we're going to be providing over $42 million to support public safety statewide, including direct support. Aw enforcement and funding for additional prosecutors to punish criminals and resource is to provide services to victims of crime. That was Bill Bar wanted that money put in. So that's $42 million. That'll help with prosecutors and all of the other things that are so important to you. You need that, because when you when you grabbed him, and then nothing happens in the back on the street that doesn't work out too well. My administration is restoring public safety where hiring more police surgeon tough one crime. Federal prosecutors, increasing penalties for assaulting law enforcement and for dismantling Antifa, doesn't they don't want to mention the word Antifa. Nobody mentions that there's a bad group of people very, very bad, very dangerous group of people and we are doing a big number on Antifa. They're bad. Earlier this year, we announced Operation Legend to search federal law enforcement to high crime neighborhoods. It is, eh Thing that has really worked out amazingly well built, but it's really under sort of really understated. In a sense, we have already conducted more than 1000 arrests and first month in Chicago. We went to Chicago very recently. Obviously, that's been a disaster. Chicago total disaster with again radical left Democrat and we just have to stretch all Democrat Everything's Democrat. All of these problems are Democrats, Cities. We don't want to say it, but it is the top Enter Democrat. Then you go into the top 25 Take a look at that. It's the same thing. We cut the number of murders in Chicago last month and a half still way too many, but they operation legend was very, very, very successful. Now it's just really getting going. But they cut it in half. And just at his very early stage is in sharp contrast to those who want to slash police funding, oppose using the National Guard and wanna hire radical judges and prosecutors, who really Is Ryder's looters and criminals. We have that in Portland, where the prosecutors don't wantto do anything. You can catch somebody doing the worst crime and they don't want to do anything. This headline in the hill dot com. Wisconsin taking center stage in the Biden Trump fight and joining us on the phone from New York is Amy Parnes. She is covering this story. This is a battleground state. We saw that in 2016 certainly seen that today. But it's also now part of the national debate over race relations in our country. It isthe. Even both sides are Making this state and what is happening there a big issue. You saw President Trump flying there today to go to Kenosha talk Teo to kind of bolster his message around law and order. And you're seeing the former vice President Joe Biden kind of taking issue and fighting back and saying, you know, also defending his position and saying, OK, looting is not a good thing, but I do support with the protesters were doing and I more than anything I support. What is happening? Why these protesters are Are demonstrating, and I think that is sort of why you're seeing this state kind of be center stage, and it's really interesting because a lot of people a lot of Democrats Point to Wisconsin as a place that should have been won by Hillary Clinton in 2016, and here they are there it is. Clearly there's a four point difference right now in the polls. And Joe Biden has the lead, but political observers on the ground anything can happen..

Joe Biden Kenosha Wisconsin president Chicago Greg Jensen Bridgewater Associates vice President Hillary Clinton Jacob Blake CNBC Bill Bar apple National Guard Antifa Teo Portland
"greg jensen" Discussed on C-SPAN Radio

C-SPAN Radio

05:37 min | 1 year ago

"greg jensen" Discussed on C-SPAN Radio

"State university planning to allow as many as 25,000 fans into its stadium for that school's home opener on September 12th the story shaping Washington today, it's all ahead on C SPAN radio. We begin with today's congressional hearing focused on a Corona virus relief bill, and among those testifying the Treasury secretary Steve Mnuchin, rejecting a democratic offer of a $2.2 trillion relief package. It comes as lawmakers questioned him on the pandemic the economy in its impact long term on the country. The Treasury secretary offered this assessment of where negotiations are between the parties and the two chambers. I do not support point to tryin. But what's more important is what is the breakdown in getting money to American workers, American families, kids where we can agree on money. There is tremendous areas of agreement, and that's what we should be doing right away. Also, one of those areas have agreement. Oh, I believe there's enormous agreement on the PPP. I wantto thankyou and others, I think Kind of bipartisan basis. The committee's here in the Senate have made improvements to the PPP going forward. I think there's agreement on money for schools. There may be a difference as to what it is. There's an agreement on enhanced unemployment going forward. There may be a slight disagreement and what the amount is in calculation. I think there's been an agreement on direct payments. As I mentioned earlier, there was even an agreement on Postal, which seems to have more excitement and more interest in the postal has ever had in the history of time. But there's there's plenty of areas of agreement where we may be differing on amount. But again, my my strong if I made you a big disagreement is on city and state. Is that right again? It's You saying they have plenty of money through chair waters. I want to be careful because I think it's it is hard to negotiate in a public agreement and in a public way, But I would say we conceded Chief Meadows and I on behalf of the president. We had reviewed this with the president in an effort to get a deal done and get other things that are very important for the American public even agreed to put more money on the table for cities and Rates. Unfortunately, unfortunately, Senator Schumer and Speaker Pelosi do not want to sit down at the negotiating table unless we publicly agree on a top line. My own opinion is we should go piece by piece in any area of the legislation we can agree on. We should have the house and the Senate passed you heard represented Maxine Waters and, of course, the Treasury secretary Stephen Yushin. In fact, talks between Speaker Pelosi and White House officials, led by the Treasure Secretary Haven't a hold Since the two sides essentially walked away from the bargaining table on August, the seventh more than three weeks ago. In an interview with CNBC, White House Chief of staff Mark Meadows said aid to states and cities does remain the biggest obstacle to worry RELIEF deal. Democrats want a trillion dollars just for that to help those governments deal with a growing budget shortfall Mark Meadows, saying that the Republicans would support about $150 billion in new funding for state and local governments. And in a separate interview with CNBC, one of the world's largest hedge fund executives, saying that the U. S economy continues to need significant physical support in order to sustain its recovery from the Corona virus induced economic devastation. Greg Jensen is with the Bridgewater Associates is from estimates at the price tag for another Corona virus. Really bill will far exceed the trillion dollar Mark Moore from today's interview. If you look at we do the calculations on the impact Fiscal policy is having across countries and in the U. S case, we think fiscal policy has driven the GDP level up about 7% relatives where it would have been on a level base is so huge impact and the feed the fiscal cliff we face here is large that you'll see a big draw down if they don't Extend the fiscal benefits that are necessary. So that's a big deal and 500 would create a very significant clef. Soto us. This are kind of estimate of what would continue to sustain the economy in the way that has been going is somewhere in the 1.321 point seven kind of range, and it depends what it's used for. There's different types of policy, the policy that gets directly spending the economy. Is much more effective per dollar than the dollar. That's preventing more bad things from happening. So there's a mix in this package. The money from states is going to prevent negatives. The stimulus checks will be direct positives is monitoring those things. And that's a good example of the challenge of trading markets and understanding economies today because we've gone over from the last 40 years. Of Let's say, um, or capitalist system where the monetary policy is driving. The cycles and private sector entities are reacting to them. Now the biggest driver in the economy are these fiscal choices, and so many different choices are being made across countries on how to do monetary and fiscal policy, and that's having a huge impact on the differentials, So it's gonna be a big deal. Down the short term. Maybe they come up short. In the longer term. We think the basic issue is you're heading in this direction where they've learned the lesson that they're going to spend money and print money until they can't And that's the path that they're on..

Chief Meadows Senate Speaker Pelosi president Washington White House Mark Meadows State university Steve Mnuchin Mark Moore CNBC Greg Jensen Maxine Waters Secretary Senator Schumer Bridgewater Associates Soto
"greg jensen" Discussed on News Radio 1190 KEX

News Radio 1190 KEX

01:42 min | 2 years ago

"greg jensen" Discussed on News Radio 1190 KEX

"Strong east with your daytime high will head to seventy one lows in the forties tonight in clear but it'll be ending up the warmest day of the week tomorrow daytime high near seventy five indicate to stormtracker weather center I'm Rhonda Shelby hi I am colonel Greg Jensen retired army colonel and former garrison commander of fort Belvoir in proud U. S. veterans I know from personal experience that the road to recovery can be difficult if you've recently found a VA disability claim and have to attend the VA claim exam you've likely got questions source compensation and pension exam on V. eight dot gov for the answers you need and the benefits you've earned your VA claim exam know what's next brought to you by the US department of Veterans Affairs this is box section you can hear me every weekday at three one after mark Mason right here on eleven ninety eight three National Review long article really goes into depth on more than you probably need but the weight of the new York times in particular handled the charges against Cavanaugh the very charges against trump the sexual stuff and how they handled the Joe Biden thing and it's just I mean it's just devastating well it's it's now been laid bare what these media organizations are their advocates of one side of the political spectrum and any claims to journalistic integrity or just silly at this point the the problem is as been pointed out you can't be arguing for them to be acted the same way in this.

Rhonda Shelby Greg Jensen commander fort Belvoir VA mark Mason National Review new York times Cavanaugh stormtracker Joe Biden
"greg jensen" Discussed on Speak For Yourself with Cowherd & Whitlock

Speak For Yourself with Cowherd & Whitlock

03:03 min | 3 years ago

"greg jensen" Discussed on Speak For Yourself with Cowherd & Whitlock

"Greg Jensen Shawn Merriman on here with us. Now time for a big story. Let's move to the big easy. We're saints fans have been up in arms ever since the controversial. No, call NFC championship game helped in New Orleans Super Bowl hopes since the call fans have put out a petition to have a game replay. And then congressman even threatened to force Roger Goodell to testify on Capitol Hill. Drew Brees has finally weighed in posting on Instagram writing. Quote, I spent this last week navigating the heartache and the disappointment from the game things within our control and some outside our control that caused us to fall short. This will make us stronger. This will bond us to get tighter. This will be a source for our success in the future. There's no place like New Orleans. There's no community like ours. No fans like the who DAT nation, I refuse to let this hold us down refusal at this create any. Negatively or resentment. I embraced the challenge. Congratulations to drew Brees the class act that I knew that he was I hope this ends the controversy, and we can now move on the Super Bowl week about one hundred percent certain open. I hope that it will end the conference. I hope drew Brees. Speaking out will calm the waters. I don't because nothing materialized from their outcry from them been slided in the NFC championship game. You gotta have something materializes from that. So I wouldn't put my guns down. I just learned how to aim better, and who to shoot, and you know, what that is. That is gonna come shots fired from the executive committee, which Sean Payton's apart of. Competition. Bought a combines. That's when you start to see this actually, turn into something of substance right now is just a lot of emotion and respect to them in their emotion. New Orleans was galvanize obviously by Hurricane Katrina. And they used a lot of that dead emotion to to ride to a Super Bowl championship. This is obviously in a different lane. But make sure to use all that energy to some of to something greater, and I think that greater is gonna come from rule changes, and is good of ju- breeze to be that leader to make sure his fan base understand that he feels their pain and to make sure everyone knows how much he cares as well. But this can't stop to something changes within the NFL. We can appreciate what he say. I mean when drew Brees says something people, listen, right? Even when he's talked when he's talking about the NFL PA. We step sandy says things because he can say things other people can't. But he can't make this thing. Go away. This thing will never go away. He can make him feel better. But never go away in ten years. You'll job as going to be sitting around. He'll be somewhere New Orleans. Eat them with his family be out. And somebody's gonna walk up to him and say, you know, what we should've had another Super Bowl, the people in wall will never ever let go and I'm saying that because I've had a situation when I was with the charges in two thousand six I can't stop hearing about all, you know, Marla mccreesh it and he should've went down. He should've took me. Right people..

Drew Brees New Orleans NFC Greg Jensen Shawn Merriman Roger Goodell Instagram Sean Payton NFL ju- breeze congressman Hurricane Katrina executive committee sandy PA one hundred percent ten years
"greg jensen" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

04:44 min | 3 years ago

"greg jensen" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Fascinating. And a concern about the continent. Increasing bridgewater's Greg Jensen on Europe. They're starting from a worst level in terms of the economy, lower inflation Costa deflation in many places and already of negative interest rates. So that struggled probably gonna quick I which is what are they gonna do has the details era, which likely com Walney have moderate effect. And so their movement will be a leading indicator because they're gonna struggle more with easing them. I'd say US in China, which are both getting likely move towards easing. Have more tools available? Greg Johnson of Bridgewater speaking, and of course, with the light step on the ice here. Dabo's after a terrific year for Bridgewater absolute basis and also wrote a basis to the hedge fund industry, relative of Mario Draghi with comments with headlines across her Bloomberg. And then onto that important news conference, stuffy Flanders joins us down senior executive editor for all of Bloomberg economics. Stephanie this is to me not just another humdrum meeting. There's some weight to this system importance to it. But clearly Allah capital economics Roger Bootle shop. There's a one percent Europe is a backdrop. Well, I think it's never completely funding with a Bloomberg economics this never completely humdrum meeting. All right. There's this growing concern about the slowdown in the economy. We had more evidence with the German and French PM is this morning. I think they're going to try very hard. Remember, they don't have new forecasts until March. Dp forecasts for the last quarter and for this call dot ORG shredded. So the question is how much can he say about the slowdown down without stoking a lot of expectation Yellen. Brunen key Powell, they would never admit. They're speaking to New York into into American Wall Street does Mario Draghi today. Speak to the elite in Davos, I think he's obviously he's not physically here. Ben, well, cool as here, but that's not the general has not been as evidence as they have been in and devils. You know, I think that we're getting into this changing of the God, which I think is concerning to many people that the enormous amount of human capital from the last few years leadership in the European Central Bank or going in the next twelve months, including and also the chief economist at a time when you'll facing that difficult shift towards normalization, which they may not have got remotely started on by the time monitoring leaves at the end of the year. It is it is difficult, and it's a time when him talking to markets as well as everyone else is import big question as to whether they should be removing accommodation. And even thinking about normalizing any this process of the at the moment. Stephanie, how can you sit there and Frankfurt today and say, the balance of risks balanced when this so clearly going to the downside. How he does that today? I think he I think he may even a void using that phrase for precisely that reason, but he doesn't want to actually change the guidance because that would take that would be a much more significant step, and frankly, I didn't think they all convinced that this is. Any more than they were convinced in the summer when we had that slow down over the second quarter. But no, he's going to have is going to be some careful because if you do that thought experiment rates were three or four percent now, would you be cutting them? Yes, you absolutely would increasingly the conversation has shifted to what can you do if you can't do anything because you already a negative forty basis points. And if you can't do anything on the balance sheet because you've already wound down Hughie, can you do anything with the long term financing operations? They did with banks. This a hint of that just speaking to market participants. Could they be the point? I think a lot is coalescing around the summer for that. But I think, but it also, of course, they have an Italy for that Italian banks absent dependent on that liquidity, which they'll come up they have they have to refinance in the summer. So I think the combination. But again, you need someone who skilled as Miodrag it's mandatory politics of that normally bring this up on a Monday, Tuesday Wednesday, but we're approaching property. The real yield Bloomberg television from in the statistic, I saw this morning with joy style. Let me see numbers. You think you know, what all was the French two year yield was negative negative interest rate. We don't see that in America. It's pervasive. What does that mean for suction? What does it mean for BNP Paribas? What's it mean for the rest of French finance means? And this is why the politics of rates is completely the opposite. Here. You know, you have the disconnect between Donald Trump, and Jay Powell is all about whether or not you want to raise rates, there's the institutions here. The financial establishment in the euro-zone is desperate to have it move away from negative rates. But it's good. It's very hard argument to make at this point. When you have the kind of economic situation, you have a new talking about nominal GDP. This is not a nominal demand environment in which you want to be raised nominal GDP on Bloomberg surveillance on television bucks..

Bloomberg bridgewater Mario Draghi Europe Jay Powell Stephanie Greg Jensen Roger Bootle US Davos Greg Johnson Donald Trump New York Dabo BNP Frankfurt Italy euro-zone
"greg jensen" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

04:54 min | 3 years ago

"greg jensen" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"And Juliette Sally. And I'm Doug krizner at Bloomberg interactive brokers studio in New York, we had an update and the equity market steak side right now mixed picture for stocks in the Asia Pacific. A closer look momentarily right now this hour's top business stories. Well, the word from the world's biggest hedge fund isn't so positive. Greg Jensen co chief investment officer at Bridgewater spoke to us from the World Economic Forum in Davos, he says investors are to optimisitic right now. Our expectation is that while people are certainly diminish their growth expectations. And you're hearing all about that. So we don't think they've done it enough expectations, particularly in the US are too high and that generally the fed and other policymakers are still expecting stronger growth than we see bridge. Award has a flagship hedge fund strategy pure alpha rays fourteen percent last year on the subject of earnings. We had shares in Texas Instruments or we do have them up by more than one percent right now in late US trading. TI post. Mixed quarterly results its profit forecast kind of in line with reduced expectations. And that fact, given everything that we've talked about with the downdraft in chips appearing to calm the market somewhat. Well, she has a full and out by about half a percent in light trade it reported a quarterly loss. But North America was stronger than expected Ford CEO, by the way, calling the company's product development constipated interesting where do us. I guess meantime, with respect to US China trade, we have President Trump saying the US will come out ahead China very much wants to make a deal. We'll see what happens where we are. Right now, we're doing great as an economy. They're not doing very well. Because of the tariffs the US and China will face off before that March first deadline. We're actually going to have trade talks next week in Washington. White House economic adviser are this is the chairman actually of the White House council of economic advisers. Kevin Hassett sang today. He believes the two sides can reach. A deal by March one China's peer to peer lenders bear watching. We're getting word that Wall Street firms like Goldman Sachs and siegler walked away from IPO is if the pace in recent months, Mark Williams, he takes his finance at Boston. University says the banks would have jumped at the chance in two thousand seventeen but the political and economic environment is making them hesitant. We had to move higher for the US equity market. We have for the story from Bloomberg's Charlie Pellett. The Dow the s&p NASDAQ hall turn green in the final hours of trading stocks higher after whip sawing investors through the day amid the ongoing debate over the outlook for global growth. Dan, Suzuki is portfolio strategist Richard Bernstein advisors? And if you look at the fourth quarter price action, specifically December the market was acting like growth is going to fall off a cliff. And I think that clearly it's not falling off cliffs, that's what we're here from Davos. And I think that's what the last few weeks has been about the S and P five hundred index up five gain of two tenths of one percent. Dow industrials rallied one hundred seven. Thirty one points up seven tenths of one percent. Nasdaq up five a gain of one tenth of one percent in New York. Charlie Pellett, Bloomberg daybreak Asia. Let's get a closer look at what's happening in financial markets here in Asia. We've just had implement dot com out of Australia here with all the latest is Bloomberg's Bryan Curtis in Hong Kong, Brian. Yes. Thank you very much. Juliette Australian employment rising twenty one thousand six hundred in December the estimate just eighteen thousand let's get to Paul Allen in Sydney for a look at that. And also the market action, Paul. Yeah. We've had a modest bump in the color on the back of those numbers. Now seventy-one spoke fifty six the unemployment rate for December dropping defy percent. But yeah, the data perhaps not as good as you'd think on the surface. There was a loss of three thousand full-time jobs. The big bump up there wasn't part time jobs twenty four thousand six hundred and the participation rate also dipping down to sixty five point six percent. So yes, the the initial. Reaction masking the deeper reality of those jobs numbers, but still an encouraging number their markets. Wise struggling for direction really the ends addicts looking flat the Essex just up at tenth of one percent, Bryan. All right. Thanks very much, Paul. Bloomberg's Paul Allen in Sydney, they're not a lot to hang your hat on in the markets this morning, I guess mixed is the is the phrase ASX two hundred has mentioned they're just a little above the flat line. Nikkei down four tenths of one percent. The kospi is also almost unchanged from day twenty one twenty seven. All right. That is look at markets thirty four minutes past the hour. Juliette back to you. Thanks, brian. Well, the speaker of the US house of Representative says the president is locked out and may not deliver his state of the union address next week at Baxter is covering all the global news in the Bloomberg nine sixty San Francisco newsroom. Ed. Yeah. Right. You'll lockout that of course under the assumption. That government is still closed out. Very.

US Bloomberg China Paul Allen Juliette Sally Davos Bloomberg interactive brokers New York Charlie Pellett Bryan Curtis Brian Greg Jensen Sydney Asia Kevin Hassett president Doug krizner Asia Pacific
"greg jensen" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

05:25 min | 3 years ago

"greg jensen" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"It is seven thirty AM in Hong Kong and Beijing six thirty pm on the eastern seaboard of the United States, and Rashad Salama and I'm Bryan Curtis. We have got thirty minutes to go before the trading starts to Tokyo and Seoul, two hours before Hong Kong, and Shanghai and Shenzhen are up and running very modest movements here in the early going in the cash markets, Australia, the assets two hundred is just up a couple of points and Zealand's down a couple of points. So we can't really read too much into that pretty solid day on Wall Street, the S and P five hundred two tenths of a percent. Dow Industrial's up seven tenths. We'll see how it feeds through into Asia as the morning progresses. Let's take a look now at the top stories from the world's biggest hedge fund isn't so positive out there. I that Greg Jensen co chief invest. Office at Bridgewater spoke to us from the world economic and four World Economic Forum in Davos, saying your best is just to up to mystic right now. Our expectation is that while people are certainly diminish their growth expectations. And you're hearing all about that at Davos, we don't think they've done it enough, and that means expectations for typically in the US are too high and that generally the fat and other policymakers are still expecting stronger growth in. We see bridgewater's flagship hedge fund strategy Pugh alpha rays a fourteen percent last year. Jensen mentioned earnings shares of Texas Instruments up more than one percent right now TI posting mixed quarterly results but its profit forecast was in line with reduced expectations. And that appears to be calming some investor concern, I take a look at what's going on. With the shares of food up almost one percent in late trading reporting a quarterly loss, but North America was stronger than anticipated Ford's this, by the way, calling the company's product development constipated. On. Okay. Well, President Trump saying that the United States in the end will come out ahead in the trade war with China China very much wants to make a deal. We'll see what happens. I like where we are. Right now. We're doing great as an economy. They're not doing very well. Because of the tariffs. Both sides face that March first deadline White House adviser Kevin Hassett said today that he believes the two sides can reach deal by then. China's peer to peer lenders bad watching. We're getting word Wall Street companies like Goldman Sachs and CitiGroup walked away from my peers the PTP's in recent months, Mark Williams who teaches finance at Boston. University says the banks would have jumped to the Johnson 2017, but the political and economic environment is making them hesitant and move higher here for US stocks the story from Bloomberg's Charlie Pellett in this Wall Street wrap stocks advanced after whip sawing investors through the session amid the ongoing debate over the outlook for global growth. Investors. Also, keeping an eye on earnings. Frank nargile, Tino is managing partner with north shore wealth management, there's going to be that fear of uncertainty. So when good earnings come out, it does relax the market temporarily in the market looks to other things to say what's going on. So that's really how we're doing this market right now. The Ernie's showing the fundamentals are still very very strong, the S and P five hundred index advanced five points up two tenths of one percent. Dow Industrial's up. One hundred and seventy one up seven tenths NASDAQ up five a gain of one tenth of one percent in New York. Charlie Pellett, Bloomberg daybreak Asia. Again, let's look at what is happening in financial markets. How Asian trading day gets ready to rumble his been begs Doug krizner little bit of weakness in the yen versus where we were about twenty four hours ago in the yen dollar relationship. One. Oh, nine fifty five in spite of that weakness, though, futures trading in Chicago for the Nikkei Havis down maybe forty points when the cash market comes online at the top of the hour. Let's get you to Sydney, Paul Allen. Is there for a look at what's happening down under and in New Zealand? Good morning. Paul morning, Doug. It's looking kind of flat here on the ends at exit. New Zealand is actually flat here in Australia. The ASX pretty quiet to most sectors are actually higher, but it's the heavyweight materials sick this really weighing on things here that's off about one half of one percent beekeeping on the dollar. Of course, today currently seventy one spot. Forty four. We got those jobs numbers out in just under an hour's time. The an appointment right expected to stay steady at five point one percent. But with all the jobs data, you're never really Nardi need. Don't at all top of the hour. We'll get the marketing in South Korea online chipmaker S K Hynix reporting fourth quarter, operating profit below estimates largely due to weaker demand for memory chips. Not surprising, given the stall that we've been talking about in the smartphone market and speaking of soul in a short while we'll have a right decision from the Bank of Korea. And then later in the Thursday session over in Europe decision from the US ten year treasury last quoted in New York at two seventy four. So that's where the action is going to begin on the other side of the top of the hour. In tokyo. I'm Doug krizner at Bloomberg interactive brokers studio in New York rish. Yep. To politics. The speaker of the US has Representative says the president is locked out and may not deliver his state of the union address next week right back says global news in the Bloomberg nine hundred sixty San Francisco newsroom, Ed. Oh, we got fundraise that of course under the assumption. That government is still closed down. Very.

United States Bloomberg Doug krizner Dow Industrial New Zealand Charlie Pellett Greg Jensen Davos Hong Kong Australia Asia Paul Allen Bridgewater Tokyo Bloomberg interactive brokers New York China late trading Rashad Salama Kevin Hassett
"greg jensen" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

08:03 min | 3 years ago

"greg jensen" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Can point to a few others that are down you mentioned PNG Kimberly Clark's down four and a half percent. You know, their story is higher pulp prices because you're talking about a company that makes tissues and diapers. Their fourth quarter earnings came up short of the profit forecast for this year. Then you have Abbott labs down two and a half percent. Their first quarter earnings forecasts trailing the average estimate and sales coming up short last quarter as well. Then you have a company like T e connectivity. They're big in electronics down four and a half percent. Their earnings and revenue forecast for the fiscal second quarter trout projections. They also cut their full year. Forecasts. And then there are a couple of companies. We got a mention here. One of them is practically the most active stock in early trading. Synchrony financial it's up almost twelve percent. The credit card issue salvaged a partnership with mart's warehouse club. Unit Sam's Club and contentious. Yeah. Absolutely. Walmart also agreed to drop a lawsuit that start at least eight hundred million dollars in damages. This is all part of a transfer of WalMart's car business last year to Capital One financial from synchrony, and by the way, capital. One shares down four and a half percent. Then made a deal to buy nine billion dollars loans from sacred leftover from the WalMart Batman's bad performance. Right. I mean, they're adding one hundred and twenty five million dollars to the loan loss reserves and on top of that capital. One's profit and revenue last quarter missed estimates. So Purdon together. I mean, it's a real tale of two companies here interesting, you know, it's interesting listening to Tom Keene and Jonathan Farrow over Davos. Some of the commentary. They're getting from there. Guests over there is that the lot of uncertainty on a global stage. The US market wallets slowing continues to generally be the beacon of stability and growth. Some of these numbers, particularly the PNG numbers seen a bear that out a little bit. Although I will say that Bridgewater, which has outperformed a lot of its peers, the world's biggest hedge fund managing firm did say that earnings expectations, particularly in the US or to. Hi, this is of course, Greg Jensen co-ceo of Bridgewater, and he said that even the fed and other policymakers are still expecting struggled growth than we see. So perhaps a beacon, but not perhaps as good as other people say, and I will just say that in general Davos is a good contrarian index for what is actually happening and right now the tone coming out of there. I don't know. I think it's probably pretty mixed. I think that it's not necessarily as singular as it has been in the past the Bank of America coming out and saying that they could see another federate hike this year. And to your point that the US is still. Beacon. And I think the I'm sensing a little bit of cautious optimism for the first half of twenty nine hundred. And I think the back half a twenty and nineteen and certainly twenty twenty even from the recession discussion seems to be I think a little bit more muted. I don't think people feel you know, just from what I'm hearing on our broadcast people aren't thinking going into the back half of the year and into two thousand twenty so Dave comeback on in here. Because I was reading a story yesterday about how actually investors are punishing firms for Mr. missing on the income side by the most in something like eleven years. I mean, it's been it's been a dramatic underperformance of those shares if they miss this sort of, you know, income-producing capacity, can you give us any color around that? I don't know it's suppose it's a matter of who's doing the county mass Saturday here yesterday, listen to Gina Martin. And some Bloomberg intelligence, basically making the case that companies that are beating estimates are making. How better in terms of their shares? Then the companies that fall short are being punished for missing them. So and that would be a change from what we've seen in the past several quarters, and you look at what's going on today with those stocks in the down, and you can certainly make that case IBM PNG and United Technologies. Hey can also throw in Comcast being up three percent after their fourth quarter results beat estimates. So it's very much a matter of how things will settle out once we get more companies because even now that things are running out. I mean, you still have a whole lot of the S and P five hundred left the report here. Yeah. You know, one of the themes that Martin Adams has been writing about for the last say six to twelve months has been margin pressure across the S and P five hundred is a wage inflation raw material inflation flows through the income statement. And that's one thing that you take a look at PNG. And you think about the raw materials that go into all of the products that they have the challenge for them every quarter in a low inflation. What extent they can raise prices and preserve margin? And these results this quarter seem to suggest that doing a pretty decent job at least this quarter, which is bad news for us because that means higher. Prices foot side is not everybody. Can I'm looking at Kimberly Clark, which I mentioned earlier their gross profit less than thirty one percent of sales last quarter year ago. It was more like thirty five percent. So, you know, that's that's one example, obviously, but not every company is in a position to deal with its cost increases by raising prices. That's for sure what about raising salaries and wages. What are we hearing on that front mornings? Well, I mean, it's more a matter of follow through I suppose because a lot has been done in the last couple of years, and then you have states that are looking to raise the minimum wage. I'm thinking about New Jersey my home state where it's going to fifteen dollars an hour as a minimum. You've got a lot of that going on across the country. So he'll companies that are domestically focused or certainly going to have to work through these wage increases. I just have to wonder poetry remember when we heard all about the lack of talent and people complaining that they can't find enough employees to hire. They could find them. They just into off the right prices. That's right. And we saw guess on that last jobs report late last month. We had was it three point six percent wage increase, which is one of the more healthier numbers we've seen but one one could argue that that number needs to go even higher and that sort of the big question for the Federal Reserve, which is looking at the data. Although I do love the story on the Bloomberg this morning about how the fed is data dependent. And yet they don't have the data tables. Larussa editor columnist and blogger as well as to Bloomberg television and radio did I miss anything? Also, fantastic tie aficionado. Just do what I do Lisa. He does what he does. And he does it. Well, thank you so much. Dave Wilson coming up. We're gonna take a look at the housing market. This is going to be a really interesting conversation. The chief economist at Fannie Mae is going to be joining us Paul, and I'm really looking forward to this. Because there's been a lot of gloom and doom about the US housing market. Has it been overdone? Well, you know, the housing stocks are down about twenty percent from their hypoc. But they've actually rallied a little bit this year because they got beaten up so bad last year. People are seeing opportunities that conversation is coming up next. Lisa Brown, and pulse. Weenie here in our eleven at three oh studios. Right now, let's get a check on what's happening outside the business world our own Michael Barr with us here. Michael. Thank you very much. Lisa. Thank you. Paul Senate leaders have agreed votes on a rival proposals for reopening the government for the first time since the shutdown began last month, though, it's not clear if either measurable pass tomorrow lawmakers are scheduled to hold separate votes on President Trump's plan that includes five point seven billion dollars for border bowl funding as well. As a democratic proposal that would reopen shuttered agencies through February eighth. A winter storm continues to cause major travel issues in the upper mid west runways at the Troy metro airport were once again close to flights this morning due to is e conditions. Former Yankees closer Mariano Rivera. Baseball's all time saves leader has become the game's first unanimous hall of fame selection. Global news twenty four hours a day on air tick tock on Twitter, powered by more than twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts in more than one hundred twenty countries. Michael. This is Bloomberg. Lisa hall. Thank you so much. Michael varsity, a little bit of a reverse of yesterday oil up bond yields up stocks up..

Bloomberg US Federal Reserve Kimberly Clark Davos Walmart Lisa Dave Wilson Abbott labs Capital One Lisa hall Michael Bank of America Baseball Comcast Twitter New Jersey Martin Adams Greg Jensen
"greg jensen" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

03:50 min | 3 years ago

"greg jensen" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Where are we right now on the recover from Q four into this year? Some people say. Credit Suisse, for instance. Yeah. It's getting a little bit better. The message I've seen from guys on both the things have gotten better, and you can sit and look at that aggressive rally on Bank stocks from the bottom in December three to where we are. Now. Let's get an update on that from a different side of it not from banking. But from investment, we go to our Eric, Eric. Tom. I know you've been looking forward to what this man has to say he's Greg Jensen, the co chief investment officer at Bridgewater associates, the world's largest hedge fund, Greg. Nice to see you again in Davos, thanks for having me, Eric, well, many people already know what an unbelievable year Bridgewater had in two thousand eighteen and there's a reason for that. I want you to tell me what worked and why why I think the first thing you look at in two thousand eighteen was there was a poor year for almost all assets. So everything but cash. Yeah. So to make money in a year like that you you have to come at it from an unbiased perspective. So bridgewater's pure alpha strategy is unbiased we don't have a bias to do. Well, when markets go up in order to do. Well, when markets go down, it comes from the understanding that we built up over forty years that we've systemized into trading rules that we use markets. And because we designed it to be unbiased we could be long and short. We don't have any correlation to the stock market or the bond market. And so it's just a function of how well we predict what's likely to happen relative that played out. And so last year coming into the year, we expected that the fiscal push in the US would exceleron cycle which would force the fed to tighten faster than they should. And that that would then have issues for markets those were pressures that we saw in these. Processes that. We'd built up and for the most part across one hundred and ten different markets. Macro markets. We had a diversified portfolio. When we got a little bit more right than we got wrong about sixty percent winning percentage. And that's pretty good. That's what translates into those returns. Did you see the meltdown coming in the fourth quarter? Well, I'd say we were prepared. We definitely thought the fed was tightening too quickly relative economic conditions at the markets hadn't reflected that yet. And at the same time, we thought the fiscal push that it pushed money into markets and into the economy in the first three quarters that was starting to add. And so by measuring those pressures, we had some of those views, and again, it's a lot more than any one theme that's built into that portfolio because we're treating in a systematic way all liquid markets across the world. Greg. The recent volatility in equity and also in credit has revived this argument that there's a problem with market structure. When you saw all those other hedge funds performed so poorly in the fourth quarter and particularly in December. You kept hearing that refrain review. Yeah. I would not agree with that. I think that the markets are acting actually pretty well, relative to the conditions, and that this this is what happens that whether it was people talk about the machines, or humans or whatever markets go up and down. It's a very difficult game. Because it's not just weather conditions. Come out good or poorly. It's how they come in relative to what's priced in the markets price in very smart consensus because it's the dollar weeded average of all of us in the world better reflected in the markets at any point in time to meek money in the markets. You have to understand something that's not priced in. And which is hard which means you need to have a unique insight, which is a rare difficult thing to do. And that unique insight has to be accurate. The combination of unique creative thought that's actually accurate is a rare mix. What do you think you and your colleagues at Bridgewater understand that is? Isn't priced into the market today? Yeah. Well, I think for if you take the base of our understandings if we've spent forty years thinking about the major cycles productivity cycle..

Greg Jensen Bridgewater fed Eric Credit Suisse Bridgewater associates US chief investment officer Tom forty years three quarters sixty percent