19 Burst results for "Glenn Hubbard"
Bloomberg Radio New York
"glenn hubbard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"I knew the answer to that maybe. It depends on us though. And I say this without being facile. It depends on the west. It's the west gives the money in assistance that humanitarian ATS to work in next year. Yep, a lot for us to watch and continue to cover Melinda always appreciate your insights. Thank you so much. Coming up. We're talking inflation and we'll be with our. Bloomberg radio on demand and in your podcast feed. On the latest edition of balance of power podcast, Glenn Hubbard, Professor of finance and economics at Columbia business school, gives us his take on the fed's likely reaction to the latest economic numbers. Remember that Milton Friedman taught us that monetary policy works with long and variable lags. So we're just beginning to see effects of previous policy actions. My guess is we'll see the fed slowed down and the pace, the smaller rate hikes going forward, but probably have to hold the level at a higher point around 5% than markets may have currently fought. Largely because the fed, I take the fed at its word that it wants to bring inflation down to 2% and do so quickly that requires a tighter policy. Glenn, one of things you taught me is it's hard to talk about an inflation number or a growth number because there are different parts of the economy that react differently. For example, we have numbers in housing that indicate that they're probably in a recession already in housing. On the other hand, the labor market seems to be very, very strong to this day. How do you put all that together as an economist to come up with a decision about where we're headed and what needs to be done? Great question. You'd expect housing and durable goods to move first as well as financial markets because higher interest rates definitely affect those. Services are most of the American economy and would be harder to slow. The labor market, as you said, is robust, although is getting somewhat weaker, there's really not much of a way for the fed to get to its goal without the labor market continuing to weaken otherwise inflation and wages, feeds into inflation and prices. So I think economists will continue to focus and the fed will continue to focus on the labor market. That's why I don't really expect the fed to take its foot off the brakes anytime soon. Get more of this and other conversations
Bloomberg Radio New York
"glenn hubbard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Kofsky, Bloomberg radio. Japan has agreed to purchase more liquefied natural gas from the U.S. and Oman. It's Japan's latest move to secure a fuel supplies and avoid future shortages. Toyota says that its global output hit a record in November. Consumer demand was said to be solid, but the company did warn of an uncertain outlook going forward due to a shortage of semiconductors in a high number of COVID cases in China. And South Korea has suspended some commercial flights and scrambled military assets to shoot at drones from North Korea. The drones had crossed the heavily armed border on Monday. Let's check the markets a pretty good day shaping up if you're long stocks than EK up about a half of 1%. S&P E minis are up about 7 tenths of 1% and the cost speed in Seoul has rallied about 6 tenths of 1%. We mentioned the dollar had been weaker. It's down about a quarter of a percent if you look at the Bloomberg dollar spot index dollar yen, one 33 O one. And the yield on the ten year treasury is 3.73%. Global news, 24 hours a day, live and at Bloomberg quick take powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in a 120 countries. In Hong Kong, I'm Brian Curtis. This is Bloomberg. Bloomberg radio on demand and in your podcast feed. On the latest edition of balance of power podcast, Glenn Hubbard, Professor of finance and economics at Columbia business school, gives us his take on the fed's likely reaction to the latest economic numbers. Remember that Milton Friedman taught us that monetary policy works with long and variable lags. So we're just beginning to see effects of previous policy actions. My guess is we'll see the fed slowed down and the pace, the smaller rate hikes going forward, but probably have to hold the level at a higher point around 5% than markets may have currently fought. Largely because the fed, I take defended its word, that it wants to bring inflation down to 2% and do so quickly that requires a tighter policy. Glenn one of the things you taught me is it's hard to talk about an inflation number or a growth number because there are different parts of the economy that react differently. For example, we have numbers and housing that indicate that they're probably in a recession already in housing. On the other hand, the labor market seems to be very, very strong to this day. How do you put all that together as an economist to come up with a decision about where we're headed and what needs to be done? Great question. You'd expect housing and durable goods to move first, as well as financial markets because higher interest rates definitely affect those. Services are most of the American economy and would be harder to slow. The labor market, as you said, is robust, although is getting somewhat weaker, there's really not much of a way for the fed to get to its goal without the labor market continuing to weaken otherwise inflation and wages, feeds into inflation and prices. So I think economists will continue to focus on the fed will continue to focus on the labor market. That's why I don't really expect the fed to take its foot off the brakes anytime soon. Get more of this and other conversations on the latest balance of power podcast
Bloomberg Radio New York
"glenn hubbard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Failed crypto exchange, but Bloomberg is reporting some of the world's savviest distressed debt investors are already looking to make a play for such firms which profit, of course, by picking through the ruins of failed companies. The calculation behind any moves could be tricky, first customers would have to become desperate enough to accept a fraction of what their owed likely through a claims trade in return for getting some cash immediately. China says it will strive to recalibrate its relationship with the U.S. and increase communication with Europe as China outlines its major diplomatic tasks for next year during a speech at a symposium about foreign relations Sunday the Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi said China's committed to following through on the common understandings as he put it reached between the Chinese and U.S. presidents and worked to bring bilateral relations back to the right course. President Xi Jinping has thought to mend frayed ties with the U.S. and its allies, holding its first in person summit with president Joe Biden in Bali Indonesia last month. The U.S. has been pressuring its security partners, including South Korea and the Netherlands, Taiwan and Japan to comply with sweeping curbs on the sale of advanced semiconductors to China. China's economy continued to slow in December as the massive COVID-19 outbreak spread across that country. Activity fell as more people stayed home to try and avoid getting sick, order recover. Bloomberg's Larry Kafka has more. A Bloomberg aggregate index of 8 early indicator shows a decline in December from an already weak pace in November, although there's no reliable data on the extent of the spread of the virus or the number of sick and dead it had reached every province before extensive and regular testing ended. The canceling of almost all domestic restrictions in China now means the virus can circulate freely. I'm Larry kofsky, Bloomberg radio, in Asia Monday, stocks made small advances while currencies were mixed amidst some cautious trading and reduced activity with many markets closed for the holiday benchmark equity indexes for Mainland China, Japan, and South Korea, I'll climb less than 1%, with a gain of just above that for India, Heather markets, including Hong Kong, Singapore and Australia were shut. The knee K in Japan closed higher by a 170 points or .65% in Monday trading. Looking ahead to key events this week, China's industrial profits will be posted Tuesday as will U.S. wholesale inventories. The bank of Japan will release the summary of options from its December meeting on Wednesday. U.S. initial jobless claims will be out Thursday. Also, the European Central Bank publishes an economic bulletin on Thursday. Global news 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg quicktake. Powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. I'm Scott Carr. This is Bloomberg. Bloomberg radio on demand and in your podcast feed. On the latest edition of balance of power podcast, Glenn Hubbard, Professor of finance and economics at Columbia business school, gives us his take on the fed's likely reaction to the latest economic numbers. Remember that Milton Friedman taught us that monetary policy works with long and variable lags. So we're just beginning to see effects of previous policy actions. My guess is we'll see the fed slowed down and the pace, the smaller rate hikes going forward, but probably have to hold the level at a higher point around 5% than markets may have currently thought. Largely because the fed, I take defended its word that it wants to bring inflation down to 2% and do so quickly that requires a tighter policy. Glenn one of the things you taught me is it's hard to talk about an inflation number or a growth number because there are different parts of the economy that react differently. For example, we have numbers in housing that indicate that they're probably in a recession already in housing. On the other hand, the labor market seems to be very, very strong to this day. How do you put all that together as an economist to come up with a decision about where we're headed and what needs to be done? Great question. You'd expect housing and durable goods to move first as well as financial markets because higher interest rates definitely affect those services are most of the American economy and would be harder to slow. The labor market, as you said, is robust, although is getting somewhat weaker, there's really not much of a way for the fed to get to its goal without the labor market continuing to weaken otherwise inflation and wages, feeds into inflation and prices. So I think economists will continue to focus on the fed will continue to focus on the labor market. That's why I don't really expect the fed to take its foot off the brakes anytime soon. Get more of this and other conversations on the latest balance of power podcast. Listen on the Bloomberg business app, Bloomberg dot com and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Is your firm growing as fast as it should?
Bloomberg Radio New York
"glenn hubbard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"The past week, leaving at least 34 people dead in a dozen states. Russian president Vladimir Putin says he's ready to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine. He told Russia media on Sunday that the Kremlin is willing to talk, but the enemy is refusing to negotiate the comments come after intense Russian shelling, killed or injured more than 60 people in the Ukrainian city of kirsan on Christmas Eve, Ukrainian president Vladimir zelensky condemned the deadly strikes as absolute evil. I'm Chris braggio. And I'm Larry kofsky from the Bloomberg newsroom. It's a quiet morning for financial markets in Asia with an extended Christmas holiday keeping most of the world's major markets closed on Monday. Japan's nikkei index is up about a third of a percent, giving back some of its earlier gains. The post holiday slowdown and worries about a wave of COVID infections in China are keeping investors on the sidelines. The decision by China's national health commission to stop publishing daily case numbers has complicated the task of assessing its economic impact. It will be a slow week ahead on Wall Street as investors try to put a positive finish on a bad year. Look at the week ahead from Bloomberg's Karen Moscow. Marcus will be closed across Europe and the U.S. on Monday and observance of the Christmas holiday. There'll be no trading in the UK on Monday either for boxing day and the markets there will remain shut on Tuesday as well. There's still some economic data to watch out for in the U.S., including your upward on wholesale inventories on Tuesday, Thursday is a weekly report on initial jobless claims, and Friday the bond market closes early ahead of the new year's holiday. Karen Moscow Bloomberg radio. A couple of reports on housing are also on this week's agenda, monthly price report from S&P, is expected to reflect a cooling market with prices down more than 1% in October, but still 8% higher than a year ago. The national association of realtors will report on November pending home sales, the report, an indicator of purchase contract signings, is forecast to be down 1%. With retail egg prices setting the pace for food inflation this year, investors will be waiting to hear from Cal main foods as it reports quarterly earnings this week. Calme is the nation's largest egg producer, it may have something to say about the bird flu epidemic that is decimated U.S. poultry flocks. Consumers have been spared much of this year's higher egg prices, grocers have held the line on retail prices to help maintain store traffic. Much of the U.S. remains in the deep freeze following the massive winter storm, U.S. natural gas production suffered its biggest one day drop in more than a decade on Friday as plunging temperatures froze liquids and pipes and forced wells to shut down, supplies across the lower 48 states were down about 10% as temperatures in key producing areas fell below freezing. Separately, oil surpassed natural gas on Saturday, as the leading fuel for New England power plants, a sign of how the grid is desperately trying to keep the lights on, amid the holiday weekend freeze. The 6 8 grid relied on oil for at least one third of its power generation and for as much as 40% of times, according to ISO New England. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on Bloomberg quicktake powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. I'm Larry kofsky. This is Bloomberg. Bloomberg radio on demand and in your podcast feed. On the latest edition of balance of power podcast, Glenn Hubbard, Professor of finance and economics at Columbia business school, gives us his take on the fed's likely reaction to the latest economic numbers. Remember that Milton Friedman taught us that monetary policy works with long and variable lags. So we're just beginning to see effects of previous policy actions. I guess as we'll see the fed slowed down and the pace, the smaller rate hikes going forward, but probably have to hold the level at a higher point around 5% than markets may have currently fought. Largely because I take the fed at its word that it wants to bring inflation down to 2% and do so quickly that requires a tighter policy. Glenn one of the things you taught me is it's hard to talk about an inflation number or a growth number because there are different parts of the economy that react differently. For example, we have numbers in housing that indicate that they're probably in a recession already in housing. On the other hand, the labor market seems to be very, very strong to this day. How do you put all that together as an economist to come up with a decision about where we're headed and what needs to be done? Great question. You'd expect housing and durable goods to move first, as well as financial markets because higher interest rates definitely affect those. Services are most of the American economy and would be harder to slow. The labor market, as you said, is robust, although is getting somewhat weaker, there's really not much of a way for the fed to get to its goal without the labor market continuing to weaken otherwise inflation and wages, feeds into inflation and prices. So I think economists will continue to focus and the fed will continue to focus on the labor market. That's why I don't really expect the fed to take its foot off the brakes anytime soon. Get more of this and other conversations on the latest balance of power podcast. Listen on
Bloomberg Radio New York
"glenn hubbard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Let's go ahead. Coming up, we continue our conversation with Charlie Ellis, author of inside Vanguard, discussing the early days at the Vanguard group. I'm very riddles you're listening to masters in business, on Bloomberg radio. Bloomberg radio on demand and in your podcast feed. On the latest edition of balance of power podcast, Glenn Hubbard, Professor of finance and economics at Columbia business school, gives us his take on the fed's likely reaction to the latest economic numbers. Remember that Milton Friedman taught us that monetary policy works with long and variable lags. So we're just beginning to see effects of previous policy actions. I guess as we'll see the fed slowed down and the pace, the smaller rate hikes going forward, but probably have to hold the level at a higher point around 5% than markets may have currently fought. Largely because the fed, I take the fed at its word that it wants to bring inflation down to 2% and do so quickly that requires a tighter policy. Glenn one of the things you taught me is it's hard to talk about an inflation number or a growth number because there are different parts of the economy that react differently. For example, we have numbers in housing that indicate that they're probably in a recession already in housing. On the other hand, the labor market seems to be very, very strong to this day. How do you put all that together as an economist to come up with a decision about where we're headed and what needs to be done? Great question. You'd expect housing and durable goods to move first as well as financial markets because higher interest rates definitely affect those services are most of the American economy and would be harder to slow. The labor market, as you said, is robust, although is getting somewhat weaker, there's really not much of a way for the fed to get to its goal without the labor market continuing to weaken otherwise inflation and wages, feeds into inflation and prices. So I think economists will continue to focus and the fed will continue to focus on the labor market. That's why I don't really expect the fed to take its foot off the brakes anytime soon. Get more of this and other conversations on the latest balance of power podcast. Listen on the Bloomberg business app, Bloomberg dot com and anywhere else you get
Bloomberg Radio New York
"glenn hubbard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Glenn Hubbard Professor of finance and economics at Columbia business school gives us his take on the fed's likely reaction to the latest economic numbers. Remember that Milton Friedman taught us that monetary policy works with long and variable lags. So we're just beginning to see effects of previous policy actions. I guess as we'll see the fed slowed down in the pace, the smaller rate hikes going forward, but probably have to hold the level at a higher point around 5% than markets may have currently fought. Largely because I take defended its word that it wants to bring inflation down to 2% and do so quickly that requires a tighter policy. Glenn, one of the things you taught me is it's hard to talk about an inflation number or a growth number because there are different parts of the economy that react differently. For example, we have numbers in housing that indicate that they're probably in a recession already in housing. On the other hand, the labor market seems to be very, very strong to this day. How do you put all that together as an economist to come up with a decision about where we're headed and what needs to be done? Great question. You'd expect housing and durable goods to move first, as well as financial markets because higher interest rates definitely affect those. Services are most of the American economy and would be harder to slow the labor market as you said is robust, although is getting somewhat weaker, there's really not much of a way for the fed to get to its goal without the labor market continuing to weaken otherwise inflation and wages feeds into inflation and prices. So I think economists will continue to focus and the fed will continue to focus on the labor market. That's why I don't really expect the fed to take its foot off the brakes anytime soon. Get more of this and other conversations on the latest balance of power podcast. Listen on the Bloomberg business app, Bloomberg dot com and anywhere else you get your podcasts. The markets in focus every business day, the Bloomberg markets podcast with Paul Sweeney and Matt Miller. Are there some sectors that you want to have more or less exposure to? We've got to vaccinate the whole world. I'm nemesis of the days Wall Street action. What's the thought on apple here for Bloomberg intelligence? Bloomberg opinion and influential newsmaker. The bond market was the
Bloomberg Radio New York
"glenn hubbard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Funding bill cleared Congress this week, Biden said the bipartisan measure advances key priorities for the country and caps a year of historic bipartisan progress. He notes that among other things that will advance cutting edge research on cancer and help veterans. The legislation includes $858 billion in defense funding, along with 45 billion in emergency assistance to Ukraine and NATO allies. And monster Bloomberg radio. China reported 37 million new COVID cases in one day following its turnabout in policy, but COVID is still taking lives in the U.S. as well. Bloomberg's irv Chapman reports from Washington. The flu and another respiratory disease are coming atop the persistence of COVID professor Roy gillick of the wild Cornell medical college said in a Bloomberg interview. After Thanksgiving, we saw the number of COVID cases increase and were bracing for what might happen over the Christmas in new year's holidays. We're seeing about half a million cases per week right now. And close to 3000 deaths. So the COVID epidemic continues. Doctor gillick said this year's flu vaccine is proving effective and the new COVID shot is also mitigating the effects of that disease. In Washington nerve Chapman, Bloomberg radio. The North American aerospace defense command or norad will once again track Santa Claus's annual flight around the globe to deliver toys to boys and girls. Norad has been tracking Santa since 1958, ensuring that Santa has a safe trip to all of his destinations. Global news 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. I'm Susanna Palmer. This Bloomberg. Bloomberg radio on demand and in your podcast feed. On the latest edition of balance of power podcast, Glenn Hubbard, Professor of finance and economics at Columbia business school, gives us his take on the fed's likely reaction to the latest economic numbers. Remember that Milton Friedman taught us that monetary policy works with long and variable lags. So we're just beginning to see effects of previous policy actions. I guess as we'll see the fed slowed down and the pace, the smaller rate hikes going forward, but probably have to hold the level at a higher point around 5% than markets may have currently fought. Largely because I take the fed at its word that it wants to bring inflation down to 2% and do so quickly that requires a tighter policy. Glenn, one of the things you taught me is it's hard to talk about an inflation number or a growth number because there are different parts of the economy, that react differently. For example, we have numbers in housing that indicate that they're probably in a recession already in housing. On the other hand, the labor market seems to be very, very strong to this day. How do you put all that together as an economist to come up with a decision about where we're headed and what needs to be done? Great question. You'd expect housing and durable goods to move first as well as financial markets because higher interest rates definitely affect those. Services are most of the American economy and would be harder to slow. The labor market, as you said, is robust, although is getting somewhat weaker, there's really not much of a way for the fed to get to its goal without the labor market continuing to weaken otherwise inflation and wages, feeds into inflation and prices. So I think economists will continue to focus on the fed will continue to focus on the labor market. That's why I don't really expect the fed to take its foot off the brakes anytime soon. Get more of this and other conversations on the latest
Bloomberg Radio New York
"glenn hubbard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Right now, PE is being cautious with where they put their investments today. And we're seeing them place more investments into their current portfolios. And helping those portfolio companies really prepare be improve their strength and viability through these unpredictable times that everybody is facing right now. Rachel, I wonder geographically if there were any areas of the country that were hit harder in this slowdown in IPOs than others. Geographically hard to say, particularly across the U.S., if that's your focus, but certainly the tech sector overall, so then you could say the West Coast has been hit in an outsized manner. A lot of that is really when you think about those who went public in 2021 and their performance today currently trailing well below the market does not bode well for the tech sector. And so that's been impacting certainly that West Coast. Yeah, and it kind of follow up on that a little bit. I mean, there was a call to be made over the last, I don't know, really dozen years. There's so much venture capital money out there. So much private equity money out there, that a company really didn't need to come public or did need to come public as soon as maybe a historically did. It could wait a little bit. Is that still the case or is some of that VC money and PE money kind of, I don't know, pulling back, maybe. I would say there's certainly a lot of dry powder still out there with PE and VC. They're definitely being more cautious in how they put that money to work. We'll see how that trend continues throughout 2023, but they're proceeding and making investments cautiously and carefully reviewing what their looking to invest in. ESG is a prime topic that a lot of that we're seeing increased focused from PE in particular through due diligence and so forth, but I definitely think PE and VC will continue putting their funds to work. And that will always provide companies opportunity for additional capital. But with rising rates, the cost of debt, that's certainly going to impact PE and VC. So that's where the math and the IPO may start to work may not for certain companies who just need the capital. All right, Rachel, good stuff will really appreciate it. Rachel gering, IPO leader for EY America's joining us via Zoom from Nashville, Tennessee and I'll read that data again. I mean, I don't think I've ever seen that. EY recently released its quarterly IPO data reporter which shows overall deal proceeds dropped 94% and get the numbers here. A 155 billion last year, 9 billion this year or so go figure, man. Well, I will say though, Paul, you know, and listeners on the radio can't see this, but Rachel is the most festive zoom background. Yeah it is. It's very good. A game there So good to see her holiday spirits not been impacted by Rachel gearing from EY America's good stuff. They're looking at these markets again. We closed higher today. You know, we'll take that. I mean, it was a tough week and it's good for a Friday. We got Christmas Eve eve, and we'll come back and we'll finish out the year next week and then we'll start off with a new year. Hopefully a better year. For equity and fixing the markets, this is Bloomberg. Bloomberg radio on demand and in your podcast feed. On the latest edition of balance of power podcast, Glenn Hubbard, Professor of finance and economics at Columbia business school, gives us his take on the fed's likely reaction to the latest economic numbers. Remember that Milton Friedman taught us that monetary policy works with long and variable lags. So we're just beginning to see effects of previous policy actions. I guess as we'll see the fed slowed down and the pace, the smaller rate hikes going forward, but probably have to hold the level at a higher point around 5% than markets may have currently fought. Largely because the fed, I take defended its word that it wants to bring inflation down to 2% and do so quickly that requires a tighter policy. Glenn, one of the things you taught me is it's hard to talk about an inflation number or a growth number because there are different parts of the economy, that react differently. For example, we have numbers in housing that indicate that they're probably in a recession already in housing. On the other hand, the labor market seems to be very, very strong to this day. How do you put all that together as an economist to come up with a decision about where we're headed and what needs to be done? Great question. You'd expect housing and durable goods to move first as well as financial markets because higher interest rates definitely affect those. Services are most of the American economy and would be harder to slow. The labor market, as you said, is robust, although is getting somewhat weaker, there's really not much of a way for the fed to get to its goal without the labor market continuing to weaken otherwise inflation and wages feeds into inflation and prices. So I think economists will continue to focus and the fed will continue to focus on the labor market. That's why I don't really expect the fed to take its foot off the brakes anytime soon. Get more of this and other conversations on the latest balance of power podcast. Listen on the Bloomberg business app, Bloomberg dot com and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Now that so much work happens outside the office, your firm can't afford to let compliance slick when it comes to audio
Bloomberg Radio New York
"glenn hubbard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"On the latest edition of the balance of our podcast, a conversation with former council of economic advisers chair, Glenn Hubbard. On the outlook for the economy. I think it's still likely that we will see a recession if the Federal Reserve pursues its path to get the 2% inflation relatively quickly, getting to four is straightforward through supply chain fixes, rental price inflation declines and so on, but given the wage pressures, I think the fed will have to destroy demand that I think equity markets haven't really priced that in yet. There are also huge implications for President Biden fiscally of the higher interest rates that are accompanying the fed's action. So we heard actually from Jay Powell, the chairman of the fed, saying exactly what you said, which is we've got a gap on the employment side where we've got a lot more jobs open than people seeking those jobs. We have to destroy some of the demand at least for labor. How do you go about doing that? And how fast does that happen? Because one question is not just whether we've peaked on inflation, but how far do we come down the other side? What's a very good question? And in fact, is the question facing chair Powell and his colleagues destroying demand will really require the bed to continue to raise interest rates and to keep the level of interest rates higher than perhaps markets thought a year or so ago. But Milton Friedman's famous apparition that monetary policy works with long and variable lags is true and what's uncertain for chair Powell and his colleagues is how long it will take what they've already done to have an effect. I do expect we'll see recessionary pressures in 2023. I strongly suspect the fed feels that way too. It's possible to have a soft landing without a recession, but not really and get the 2%. Catch
Bloomberg Radio New York
"glenn hubbard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"On the latest edition of the balance of our podcast, a conversation with former council of economic advisers chair, Glenn Hubbard. On the outlook for the economy. What is uncertain? I think it's still likely that we will see a recession if the Federal Reserve pursues its path to get to 2% inflation relatively quickly, getting to four is straightforward through supply chain fixes, rental price inflation declines and so on. But given the wage pressures, I think the fed will have to destroy demand that I think equity markets haven't really priced that in yet. They're also huge implications for President Biden fiscally of the higher interest rates that are accompanying the fed's action. So we heard actually from Jay Powell, the chairman of the fed, saying exactly what you said, which is we've got a gap on the employment side where we've got a lot more jobs open than people seeking those jobs. We have to destroy some of the demand at least for labor. How do you go about doing that? And how fast does that happen? Because one question is not just whether we've peaked on inflation, but how far do we come down the other side? What's a very good question? And in fact, this is the question facing chair Powell and his colleagues destroying demand will really require the bed to continue to raise interest rates and to keep the level of interest rates higher than perhaps markets thought a year or so ago. But Milton Friedman's famous apparition that monetary policy works with long and variable lags is true and what's uncertain for chair Powell and his colleagues is how long it will take what they've already done to have an effect. I do expect we'll see recessionary pressures in 2023. I strongly suspect the fed feels that way too. It's possible to have a soft landing without a recession, but not really and get the 2%. Catch more of this
Bloomberg Radio New York
"glenn hubbard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"A conversation with former council of economic advisers chair, Glenn Hubbard. On the outlook for the economy What is uncertain? I think it's still likely that we will see a recession if the Federal Reserve pursues its path to get to 2% inflation relatively quickly. Getting to four is straightforward through supply chain fixes, rental price inflation declines and so on. But given the wage pressures, I think the fed will happen destroy demand that I think equity markets haven't really priced that in yet. They're also huge implications for President Biden fiscally of the higher interest rates that are accompanying the fed's action. So we heard actually from Jay Powell, the chairman of the fed, saying exactly what you said, which is we've got a gap on the employment side where we've got a lot more jobs open than people seeking those jobs. We have to destroy some of the demand at least four labor. How do you go about doing that? And how fast does that happen? Because one question is not just whether we've peaked an inflation, but how far do we come down the other side? What's a very good question? And in fact, this is the question facing chair Powell and his colleagues destroying demand will really require the bed to continue to raise interest rates and to keep the level of interest rates higher than perhaps markets thought the year or so ago. But Milton Friedman's famous apparition that monetary policy works with long and variable lags is true and what's uncertain for chair Powell and his colleagues is how long it will take what they've already done to have an effect. I do expect we'll see recessionary pressures in 2023. I strongly suspect that that feels that way too. It's possible to have a soft landing without a recession, but not really and get the 2%
Bloomberg Radio New York
"glenn hubbard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Of the balance of power podcast, a conversation with former council of economic advisers chair, Glenn Hubbard. On the outlook for the economy. What is uncertain? I think it's still likely that we will see a recession if the Federal Reserve pursues its path to get to 2% inflation relatively quickly, getting to four is straightforward through supply chain fixes, rental price inflation declines and so on. But given the wage pressures, I think the fed will happen to destroy demand that I think equity markets haven't really priced that in yet. They're also huge implications for President Biden fiscally of the higher interest rates that are accompanying the fed's action. So we heard actually from Jay Powell, the chairman of the fed, saying exactly what you said, which is we've got a gap on the employment side where we've got a lot more jobs open than people seeking those jobs. We have to destroy some of the demand at least for labor. How do you go about doing that? And how fast does that happen? Because one question is not just whether we've peaked on inflation, but how far do we come down the other side? What's a very good question? In fact, this is the question facing chair Powell and his colleagues destroying demand will really require the bed to continue to raise interest rates and to keep the level of interest rates higher than perhaps markets thought a year or so ago, but Milton Friedman's famous app or ism that monetary policy works with long and variable lags is true and what's uncertain for chair Powell and his colleagues is how long it will take what they've already done to have an effect. I do expect we'll see recessionary pressures in 2023. I strongly suspect the fed feels that way too. It's possible to have a soft landing without a recession, but not really and get the 2%. Catch more of this and other conversations on today's edition of the balance of power podcast. Listen on the Bloomberg business app, you were dot com and anywhere you get your podcasts. Wake up and text text and eat. Text and meet up with a friend you haven't seen in forever. Hi. Oh, hey. Text and complain that they're on their phone the whole time. Text and listen to them complain that you're on your phone the whole time. Text and whatever. But when you get behind the wheel, give
Bloomberg Radio New York
"glenn hubbard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Podcast, a conversation with former council of economic advisers chair, Glenn Hubbard. On the outlook for the economy. What is uncertain? I think it's still likely that we will see a recession if the Federal Reserve pursues its path to get to 2% inflation relatively quickly, getting to four is straightforward through supply chain fixes, rental price inflation declines and so on. But given the wage pressures, I think the fed will happen to destroy demand that I think equity markets haven't really priced that in yet. They're also huge implications for President Biden fiscally of the higher interest rates that are accompanying the fed's action. So we heard actually from Jay Powell, the chairman of the fed, saying exactly what you said, which is we've got a gap on the employment side where we've got a lot more jobs open than people seeking those jobs. We have to destroy some of the demand at least for labor. How do you go about doing that? And how fast does that happen? Because one question is not just whether we've peaked an inflation, but how far do we come down the other side? What's a very good question? In fact, this is the question facing chair Powell and his colleagues destroying demand will really require the bed to continue to raise interest rates and to keep the level of interest rates higher than perhaps markets thought the year or so ago, but Milton Friedman's famous aphorism that monetary policy works with long and variable lags is true and what's uncertain for chair Powell and his colleagues is how long it will take what they've already done to have an effect. I do expect we'll see recessionary pressures in 2023. I strongly suspect the fed feels that way too. It's possible to have a soft landing without a recession, but not really and get the 2%
Bloomberg Radio New York
"glenn hubbard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"The dollar, setting yet new records around the world we saw Japan actually start to try to intervene on behalf of the yen, doesn't seem to be working much. What do you make of the stronger dollar? Does that have to be contained? Well, the strong dollar is good on one side of the equation, of course, if you're buying something from overseas, but it really is hurting many American farms and sectors. The real issue is having the dollar reflect fundamental values in the United States and to make sure that monetary policy and fiscal policies are more coordinated around the world. We're just starting to have that conversation. Well, let's talk about the coordination just for one moment. This week, marked yesterday, actually marked the 37th anniversary of the Plaza accord. Exactly. On the dollar. Any prospect of that kind of coordinated intervention with currencies? I doubt it, but I do think there's going to have to be a discussion at the G 20 level of what kinds of fiscal policies and monetary policies work in this environment. And I expect the U.S. to get some rebuke from some nations about the roller coaster we've been on in fiscal policy and monetary policy. Glenn is always great to have you on, particularly on a week like this week. That's Glenn Hubbard of the Columbia business school. Coming up, Britain comes out with a budget as Italy heads to elections on Sunday. We're going to go through what all this means for the economy and the markets with Jacob Kierkegaard of the Peterson institute. This is balance of power on Bloomberg television and on radio. Carol messer. This stock has shot up big time. Tim stenbeck, so take us into the economic impact of this, along with reporters and editors who help make your business week profitable. Let's dig into it with Bloomberg business week editor Joe Weber. It's the cover story of the upcoming issue, Bloomberg, business week. We did afternoons at two eastern. These are retailers that have been on everybody's radar. Those Apple numbers continuing to come in. On Bloomberg
Bloomberg Radio New York
"glenn hubbard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"The select committee on the January 6th capital invasion building a legal, as well as a political case against former president Donald Trump, but first, whether transitory or not, the supply chain problems we are seeing are persisting. For his view on the supply chain and why it isn't getting fixed, I spoke with Columbia business school professor and dean emeritus Glenn Hubbard. Well, it is slowly getting fixed. If you look in the good markets, it is slowly being alleviated, but there will be problems for some time. This isn't going away this year. In the labor market, you have inflation, people have wage demands, perhaps, that are different than before the pandemic. And obviously long COVID changes in the types of jobs, people want to do. This will sort itself out, but it's not going to be quick. So how long is the long term? As I guess my question, specifically on skills in your book, actually, the wall in the bridge, you talked about training people for specific skills. Do we have a longer term problem here that we don't have people trained for the jobs that we need them for? We definitely do. And in fact, for the jobs they may now want to do as they change their careers, we're not a society that does very well at this. There are a lot of things we could do, businesses could do. Government could do, but we're not doing much of it. What about the situation with the economy more generally? And particularly on inflation, we have a chair J Powell saying, essentially, he's going to do whatever it takes to get inflation down, even if it means recession, which is a bigger danger right now inflation or recession. Both. And here's what I mean by that. I think what chair Powell is saying is getting inflationary expectations back in the box and inflation back in the box is job one. Doing that in a so called soft landing to my mind is very hard. Inflation is starting to come down, but it's not going to come down to 2% all by itself. It might come down to the low fours or high threes by itself. That leaves share Powell in the box of action. Unfortunately for him, because inflationary expectations are a worrisome thing at the moment, he may still have to be very aggressive. So unfortunately, a soft landing, I think, is somewhat unlikely. Are there structural factors that are beyond chair Powell's ability to control in terms of long-term inflation? Maybe not 8% inflation, but three or 4% inflation. Things like a de globalization. Some people call it things like demographics, fewer people coming into the workforce. And for that matter, dealing with climate, there are some forces longer term that may increase costs of things. All of those are true. I don't think it's going to affect long-term inflation. Think of it more like a one time increase in prices and costs. It may make firms less valuable. But I think chair Powell can get inflation to 2%. What about consumer spending that it appears to be softening as a practical matter? And by the way, consumer sentiment is not none too hot right now either. What does that say about the strength of the economy? Well, it's not just consumer sentiment, CEO sentiment is very low and that's very troubling, real consumer spending has come down. In fact, to a point where we may technically be entering a recession, that is, of course, part of the demand destruction the fed was trying to do. The question is not doing so much that it tips the balance into a full blown recession very early. What are the chances we actually are in a session just don't know it. It's possible, given the decline in real personal consumption, given the fall in real personal income, I wouldn't say it's overwhelmingly likely, but I wouldn't rule it out. And of course, the national bureau of economic research that gets to make this call, it's not just a rule of thumb on GDP, but it's something to watch. Does it matter? And by that, I mean this. There's one thing that's a downturn, maybe even a substantial downturn. Another is a recession technically. Does it matter whether it technically becomes a recession as opposed to a downturn? No. It doesn't matter either economically or politically, economically, people will be hurting in a recession, whether it's called that or not. And politically, political leaders will certainly feel the heat, whether the NBER uses the R word or not. You are, of course, an economist, as far as I can tell, I'm not a market trader. Correct. But the market's desperately want to know, where's the bottom? When is it going to come back? From an economics point of view, where do you think the bottom is and when is it? Well, I think it's easier to talk about the win is. If once people come to the view that discount rates, interest rates aren't going to keep going up, up, up. And more clear view about corporate earnings, that's when we'll see the bottom. At the moment, when interest rates ran up to 3% on the ten year, they've fallen back a little, but still much higher than they were. That was a worry in terms of discounting corporate cash flows. And then there have been concerns about earnings. When those two things get resolved, I think we'll know we're there. In the past in this country, we've turned to capitalism to take us out of some difficult situations. And on average over time, it has done a lot of good, lifting people out of poverty, improving people's lives. Is there a failure of confidence in capitalism that you see even at the Columbia business school right now? Because of some of the inequalities we've seen, some of the failures that we've seen. We have a question put the finger on it. I think students in some business people some members of the public will say they're skeptical about capitalism. I don't infer from that. They mean they love socialism. I think it means they're concerned about inequality of opportunity in our society. And what do we do about it? Honestly, capitalism is still the best way to deal with that, but we need to a little do a little bit more than we're doing right now. But is there a market failure in capitalism in the sense that, okay, that's the engine that drives it, but there are ways to drive it better by modifying in some ways to address some of the issues you mentioned. There are. And I think government does have a role to play here and preparing people more for the modern economy to think more about training, to think more about the future of work. And business can't sit on its hands here either. Social support for business for capitalism, that's not written on tablets. It requires effort from all of us. Thanks to Columbia business school professor and dean emeritus, Glenn Hubbard. Coming up is the select committee on the January 6th capital invasion building
Bloomberg Radio New York
"glenn hubbard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Take us out of some difficult situations. And on average over time, it has done a lot of good lifting people out of poverty, improving people's lives. Is there a failure of confidence in capitalism that you see even at the Columbia business school right now? Because of some of the inequalities we've seen, some of the failures that we've seen. We have a question put the finger on it. I think students in some business people, some members of the public will say they're skeptical about capitalism. I don't infer from that. They mean they love socialism. I think it means they're concerned about inequality of opportunity in our society, and what do we do about it? Honestly, capitalism is still the best way to deal with that, but we need to do a little bit more than we're doing right now. But is there a market failure in capitalism in the sense that, okay, that's the engine that drives it, but there are ways to drive it better by modifying in some ways to address some of the issues you mentioned. There are. And I think government does have a role to play here and preparing people more for the modern economy to think more about training, to think more about the future of work. And business can't sit on its hands here either. Social support for business for capitalism, that's not written on tablets. It requires effort from all of us. And I should say a lot of this is covered in your book, the wall of the bridge. Indeed it is. A little bit of plug there. It's a terrific book. Thank you so much to Columbia's Glenn Hubbard for coming in today. Coming up as airlines and others struggle to find the workers they need, we talk with the head of one of the nation's largest unions, Mary K Henry of the SEIU. This is balance of power on Bloomberg television and on radio.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"glenn hubbard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Than walls to protect workers that we really need In the wall and the bridge Hubbard proposes a series of private and government programs to help workers build a bridge to the future Because in the end even painful change is essential to capitalism which echoing Ken langone is the system that in the long run will do the most people the most good which works better for everybody And there's no doubt in my mind capitalism And we're delighted to be joined now by one of our regular contributors here on Wall Street He's Glenn Hubbard former chairman of the council economic advisers certainly of Columbia business school And most important for this purpose the author of the new book the wall and the bridge Glen thank you so much for being back with us It's a fascinating book An important book In reading through it I have the strong sense part of your motivation was you have some concerns for the future of capitalism Because to some extent inherent in capitalism is a dynamism and a creativity that can lead to some destructive qualities I think that's a 100% right data You know it's like a coin with two sides economists policy makers business people we often talk about the growth and dynamism side of capitalism that's why we're in the game It's hugely important The flip side of its disruption on many of us frankly most of us win from a lot of the disruptions I talk about in the book but not everybody And I think we have to notice those who have been left behind and figure out how do we get everybody to be able to participate in our economy not a new idea It was actually Adam Smith's idea We need to put the liberal back in neoliberalism Classical liberal that is awesome Let me ask you Glenn as an economist Dynamic capitalism inherently lead to increasing inequality I don't know about that but it certainly needs to generate churn and disruption You know many jobs and industries that exist today didn't exist a hundred years ago That's the good news The flip side of that is that people's livelihoods communities firms and industries can be at risk That too is not a bad thing as long as we prepare people You know when that was talked about the wealth of nations he talked about competition and openness And those are good things But I think if Smith were alive today he would talk about the ability to compete in the world we have with technological change in globalization Is everybody really at the starting line I think that's the inequality that would have worn SNP and should worry us Glenn in your book there's a lot of talk about dynamism creativity innovation and how important that is For a society for growth and for the individuals in it At the same time you have a distributive notion as well called mass flourishing that you actually go back to Adam Smith and say man as was consistent with Adam Smith talk to us about mass flourishing Well man's flourishing is more than GDP You know when Smith wrote the wealth of nations there was no GDP although he did talk about maximizing the size of output I also think that the smith of the theory of moral sentiments where he used an expression mutual sympathy and today we might call empathy I think the right economic ideas everybody in the world everybody participating everybody flourishing into the minds of the classical economists flourishing meant participating in the economy the ability to have meaningful work And I think that's really what the book is about How do you build bridges to that kind of work A bridge either takes you to somewhere or brings you back and taking you two could be preparing you for the jobs of today and tomorrow and taking you back is rethinking social insurance Do you have a way to reconnect people who fall out of the boat to the boat What if you knew for a certainty that in order to have truly mass flourishing you had to give up some of the dynamism Would you make that trade I wouldn't and that's the point of the book I think there are a number of people that I note in the book that Adam Smith with school if he were here today It suggests that you can just sort of haircut dynamism The real issue is compensating people who have been left behind We have old expressions in economics the same professor who told you that trade is good or technological advances are good He or she also told him that's because the gainers can compensate the losers And by compensation what I talk about is not writing people check or pinching them off But investing in getting people connect preparing people for work and preparing people who got left behind That's something we used to do in the country The land grant colleges of the 19th century the GI Bill of the 20th century I suggest ways we can bring those life to life today Glen Hubbard thank you so very much He's the author of this terrific fascinating and really important new book The wall in the bridge of course.
Fox News Sunday
Coronavirus infects U.S. economy; millions face financial ruin
"The tri state area has now seen nineteen deaths from the corona virus outbreak New Jersey governor Phil Murphy said today have a total of nineteen hundred and fourteen people in New Jersey have now tested positive for the virus twenty people have died there New York governor Andrew Cuomo said New York has seen one hundred fourteen deaths and over fifteen thousand cases Connecticut has seen five deaths from the virus governor Cuomo today called for the federal government to invoke the defense production act to get factories to make masks ventilators and other medical equipment he says the situation is dire this they cannot manage it states all across the country can't manage it certainly the states that are dealing with the highest caseload can't handle it but you're hearing it all across the country from states they just can't deal with finding the medical supplies that they need on CNN this morning mayor bill de Blasio said sixty people in the city have died from the virus eight thousand in the city are infected his forecast was Graham the truth is and new Yorkers and all Americans deserve the blunt truth it's only getting worse and in fact April and may are to be a lot worse right now we are a third of the cases in the country that's going to get worse for about two thirds or more the cases in New York state that's going to get worse the U. S. is entering a recession the ultimate fear is that it could last a long time and that has some worried about a depression some prominent economy watchers including former White House chief economist Glenn Hubbard and Kevin Hassett and former federal reserve vice chairman Alan blinder have drawn comparisons to the Great Depression although they have stopped short of forecasting
This Week with George Stephanopoulos
Gop, President and Congress discussed on This Week with George Stephanopoulos
"Have on it which of america's most prominent economist paul krugman nobel prizewinning economists now a columnist for the new york times distinguished professor at city university of new york and glenn hubbard dean of the columbia business school chair of the council of economic advisers under george w bush we just saw president trump right there he also put up a tweet yesterday saying that tax cuts will increase investment in the american konomi and in us workers leading to higher growth higher wages and more jobs paul krugman your response lots of people all basically all serious studies say not so much there's gonna be maybe a little boost but not very much we had the university of chicago survey forty two economists provole political persuasions only one thought it was going to have a significant effect on economic growth and i've been looking at what are the markets thick which kind inching so we have a chart here if you can short so never mind the stock market right he's going to cut taxes on corporations you'd expect stocks to go up a better judge would be look at the dollar because if this bill does what it they say it's gonna do skads money will pour in corporation will bring money back home invested here all of that should lead to a surge in the dollar in fact the dollar has done nothing the dollar rose when trump was elected because they thought the people thought the infrastructure plan was going to happen then went back down again it's actually lower than it was on election day and what the markets are saying is this is a big nothing burger the markets are saying they don't really expect any significant economic boost from this