17 Burst results for "Gbtc"

"gbtc" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

06:03 min | 2 weeks ago

"gbtc" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"So much we appreciate that All right to the hottest buzzwords I would say in finance are crypto and ETFs So what do we do kids Let's have a crypto ETF Somebody said that's a thing So I said we need to get Erik Beltran on this program because he is our ETF expert Eric Altoona senior ETF analyst for Bloomberg intelligence and Eric tell me it's not so Tell me we don't have a crypto ETF Yeah I mean it's kind of like wonder twins if you're old enough to remember that show Those are two huge forces joining forces and each are going to rock each other's world in my opinion So yeah there's a bunch of crypto ETFs out there namely overseas The U.S. has been very behind other countries So in the U.S. really all we have here is GBTC which is that over the counter traded trust that has a huge discount Which is not an ETF And then we have futures based ETFs And the future space ETFs have been moderately successful 1.5 billion which is pretty good considering it's down 30% since launching right at launch rate kind of at a peak I guess it was a sell the news kind of event when the ETF was finally approved But it's held on to 1.5 billion It trades over a 100 million every day since it launched which is really amazing That's a lot of volume for a new ETF And then there's a couple of follows that have gotten 50 million nothing to write home about So we're looking at a very small niche area the way I try to describe the U.S. crypto ETF situation to people is the futures based Bitcoin ETFs are sort of the USO which is the oil ETF of Bitcoin Whereas what people really want is the GLD of Bitcoin which tracks it physically that is not happening for When is that coming though Because you've always said you have to crawl before you can walk but eventually we learn to walk So when are we going to get that Listen the Gary gensler's brain is the only person who can answer that He just seems to have a problem with crypto We have a theory that gensler is actually facing higher powers where you've got Biden and Yellen and Powell and Warren and really people in the upper rungs of the U.S. government who are simply not comfortable with crypto as it is Whether it's just a challenge the dollar or the tax situation or the ability for pumping and dumping and that kind of stuff So I just think gens are made of his hands tied or he just personally just doesn't feel comfortable He's called crypto in the exchanges the wild west And so there's been several disapprovals of spot Bitcoin ETFs over the past couple months and each one reminds us to the one three years ago They haven't really changed much It's all about fraud and manipulation They're just not comfortable with out there where the future's ETFs are all regulated by the CMTs But there is more official the future So he feels comfortable there not comfortable letting people out of that little arena into the spot market So I don't think we'll see one for at least a year maybe two It's interesting Eric you know when I was coming out of college and MBA program everybody was going the Wall Street Now it seems when I talk to kids when I go down to duke or Richmond they're all talking crypto That is kind of it feels to me You know the future the frontier of finance here I'm concerned here is the U.S. perhaps falling behind because the regulatory framework is again lagging some other countries Yes certainly I think younger people they just go and buy crypto on an exchange In fact they're the ones who don't understand why an ETF is even needed But I try to explain to them that hey there's all these older adviser funny studies that are sitting on $28 trillion So there is a massive amount of money that really would prefer to buy crypto through the ETF So that's really who's losing here It's the advisers who are managing money and they don't want to go on coinbase and pay 1.5% and they'd rather be it through a regulated ETF That's what they want And they're just not getting it So now they're trying to figure out all these other ways to do it whether it's a separate account or potentially holding their nose and buying GBTC or BIT O with the futures you get a roll cost It's about 10% a year That's not ideal There's really no ideal way A spot Bitcoin ETF would be ideal but it's the advisers who are losing in their clients I think the younger people they're on these exchanges and they probably would bypass the ETFs largely in my opinion although I try to remind them that a bit bitter which is the futures ETF it detracts well and it only costs one basis point to trade whereas coinbase and other exchanges are well north of 1% So it's literally a hundred times cheaper if you're trading If you're buying and holding I think it makes more sense to just go to an exchange and buy it and hold it But rather than use the ETF All right let's get down to the real business The price forecasting as of late we've heard a lot of calls for a 100,000 We've heard a lot of calls that it's the new inflation hedge How are you thinking about a year for Bitcoin Yeah it's really it's interesting So I am an ETF analyst And I speak conversational crypto I guess But it went up a lot right And the way I see crypto I studied crypto during selloffs and market rises and it really behaves like a high beta stock It almost behaves like arc And so I would just say to people if the market is getting good and roaring people are going to look for risk assets to get even more return And I think that would be a good environment for crypto A bad environment ironically is a sell off We looked at the past couple of sell offs Crypto does way worse than the market Gold kind of gives you a zero and it's sort of does something Longer the treasuries are better hedged But crypto is more like a high beta stop right now Hey Eric thanks so much for joining us always loved chatting with you All things ETF Eric baltulonis senior.

Erik Beltran Eric Altoona GBTC U.S. Yellen Eric Gary gensler Bloomberg gensler Biden U.S. government Powell Warren Richmond Eric baltulonis
"gbtc" Discussed on Money For the Rest of Us

Money For the Rest of Us

02:58 min | 3 months ago

"gbtc" Discussed on Money For the Rest of Us

"That honor goes to the purpose Bitcoin ETF, BTCC, which launched in February 2021 and trades in Canada. In Europe, Jacobi asset management, yesterday, were given authorization to launch their own Bitcoin ETF. Bitcoin ETFs are coming, but they're not all the same. The Canadian ETF actually owns Bitcoin. As will, the ETF by Jacobi asset management. All of the U.S. based Bitcoin ETFs won't own Bitcoin. They will have positions in Bitcoin futures. And we'll see in this episode that the performance of investing in Bitcoin futures will be very, very different from investing in Bitcoin. Why is it that the U.S. couldn't approve an ETF that invest in Bitcoin? There are funds that invest and hold Bitcoin itself. There's been one in place since 2013. It's the grayscale Bitcoin trust. It has over $39 billion in asset under management. And it owns Bitcoin directly. GBTC is structured like a closed end fund, in which there are a limited number of shares that trade on in exchange, and like other close and funds, there isn't a mechanism to keep the market price of the fund in line with the net acid value or NAV. The NAV reflects the true value of the shares. As its calculated by taking the total value of the underlying holdings, less any debt and dividing it by the number of shares outstanding. Gptc currently has a discount of 21%. The market price is 21% lower than the inherent value of the fund. That means an investor can purchase a dollars worth of Bitcoin for 79 cents. Now one of the downsides of GBTC, it has a 2% expense ratio. But there was another closed in offering similar to GBTC that launched in February of 2021. It's the Osprey Bitcoin trust. O BTC. It has a much lower expense ratio of 0.49%, but it's also selling for a discount a 23% discount to net asset value. So.

Jacobi asset management Bitcoin GBTC U.S. Europe Canada Gptc
"gbtc" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

06:49 min | 3 months ago

"gbtc" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Right thank you very much risha UK prime minister Boris Johnson says he's focused on expanding trade with China but with caution Still focused on global events in which they disagree Johnson also says he feels getting much done at the global climate change summit in Glasgow is going to be a very tough go FDA has given approval of mix and match vaccine approach CEO of Moderna on Bloomberg exclusively says its booster may get FDA approval this week China says a mystery object launched into orbit earlier this year was a reusable space vehicle U.S. is threatening is treating I'm sure as potential hypersonic missile and says it could heighten tensions in the region Hong Kong chief executive Carrie lam will remain in the hospital under observation after suffering a right elbow fracture for U.S. president Joe Biden meeting today with progressives and moderate wings of his party to try and get some compromise on infrastructure Former U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell has passed away complications for a breakthrough COVID case doctors say he had underlying health issues and that any breakthrough death is very very very rare And Donald Trump is suing to block the release of his White House records regarding the January 6th insurrection He says it is illegal unfounded and overbroad And the Biden administration is asking the Supreme Court to block the Texas abortion law which limits after 6 weeks abortion In San Francisco I'm at Baxter This is Bloomberg All right guys back to you rich All right well joining us now is that Doug was both wiki He's a chief business officer And X limited We're discussing the latest on the market and particularly the crypto crypto space Bitcoin ETF listing backed by BTC futures television This isn't how it would be different if it was backed by BTC cash instead of BTC futures That's a great question and you've probably heard about 300 answers over the last couple of days but I'll give you mine If you're backed by Bitcoin futures it's sort of like when gold is paper gold versus real gold When you have something that's backed by the future it's the future is something that anyone can manufacture I could sell you a future today just by creating it into the market whereas when you actually buy Bitcoin physical there's a limited number of Bitcoin out there only 21 million but there's an unlimited amount of futures that you can actually prepare Now the reality is that sure this is going to be good for folks that want to have some sort of exposure to Bitcoin but it's going to be diluted somewhat by the fact that it's not the actual underlying And I think that is the dilution effect that I think is going to affect people are shock people the most that think they're buying the ETF And buying that ETF is going to give them the same sort of exposure as if they bought Bitcoin underlying I think they'll be rather surprised when you'll see Bitcoin make a move higher but perhaps the ETF doesn't move at all Douglas don't you think that it's worthwhile to kind of point out the fact that in the case of Bitcoin proper it's an unregulated space whereas the futures contract does have a regular with a little bit of oversight Well I would say that you're incorrect actually the Bitcoin is only traded in the United States by cryptocurrency exchanges like my own that have money transmitter licenses in each state that they're operating in So they are actually regulated Bitcoin is actually regulated in the trading of us regulated in the United States However certainly the futures are traded by a different regulator That's the CFTC But I just want to just pick you up on something done with someone If I buy an oil future and the future contract comes to its logical end unless they three months or 6 months or whatever you've got to take delivery of it So with the Bitcoin surely you'd have to take delivery of it then as well No actually you don't With Bitcoin it's more of a cash delivery mechanism when it comes down to using futures in the United States as opposed to actual delivery of the underlying So yes you're correct It's sort of I guess as if you were doing a non deliverable forward and you were continually rolling that What will actually happen with the Bitcoin future Is it rather than Bitcoin would be delivered In fact what would happen is that the contract that initially was purchased would then be rolled into the next contract So in terms of the adoption of cryptocurrencies is this a step forward in your view even with the futures ETF Yeah it's certainly a step forward because it means there's going to be more folks that can get access to it You're not just buying GBTC anymore Now you can buy an ETF that's backed by the futures But I think that the real adoption is going to be exciting when folks start to actually buy ETFs that are backed by the underlying All right So would you buy it I wouldn't know In fact I would buy yeah I buy Bitcoin directly in Ethereum directly And then I self custody that in my own wallets So when you listen to a lot of the criticism from different corners whether it's coming from the US Treasury or the SEC and the skepticism that is out there still with a cryptocurrency space Does that make you more bullish Well I'm always bullish when it comes to regulation I think that it is important that people follow regulations and we've spent a lot of time at INS working with the regulators The more regulation I think the better and obviously then the greater adoption but also it's about UI Making things such that the individual investor can feel comfortable in buying something putting in a wallet and not worrying about losing their seat phrases And that's really why the ETF comes into effect in the field It's an easier way to buy something that they're not going to be able to lose If you buy Bitcoin yourself you put it in a wallet you forget your seat phrases Well you're going to have a problem So when you tell me that the Bitcoin is a regulated space describe that because it seems to run counter a little bit to the notion of blockchain and the public the way that that public ledger is displayed Well I think that you have to really split out what blockchain is versus what Bitcoin is Bitcoin has a blockchain for sure but it's very different from the Ethereum blockchain which is different from any blockchain that comes from any other kind of crypton seed that are protocol Bitcoin is regulated in the U.S. in that an exchange if you're a U.S. resident you can only trade let's say in New York with a number of cryptocurrency exchanges that are registered with the money transmitter in New York State But then again you could certainly trade offshore but if you trade offshore you can't really have the same protections you would have as if you traded with an onshore type cryptocurrency trading venue So there are regulations in the U.S..

Bitcoin U.S. prime minister Boris Johnson Carrie lam Biden administration FDA Moderna China Colin Powell Joe Biden Donald Trump Bloomberg Glasgow Baxter Hong Kong Johnson White House Doug Supreme Court UK
"gbtc" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money

CNBC's Fast Money

03:42 min | 3 months ago

"gbtc" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money

"Welcome back to fast money. Bitcoin holding above the $61,000 mark is a market gears up for the launch of the first Bitcoin futures ETF tomorrow. So does this launch clear the way for more names to enter the field? Let's get to Kate Rooney. For more on that, hey, Kate. Hey, Melissa's ETF. Maybe the first to market, but it probably won't be the last. There are a group of similar futures based Bitcoin ETFs waiting in the wings and they could go live by the end of this year. Tomorrow's ETF debut is from pro shares it'll hold Bitcoin futures contracts on the CME and we have invesco with a similar application in the works van neck and Valkyrie as well. Those are all on the watch list. And while pro shares may have a slight advantage as the first mover may only be, but a couple of days or a couple of weeks. And that leaves those other names to compete on fees potentially or even things like brand awareness. The other big name to watch here, grayscale Bitcoin trust. It's the world's largest Bitcoin fund with about 3.5% of all global Bitcoin supply in that fund. It's been the main on ramp for investors like Kathy wood, for example, to get exposure to crypto. Grayscale, confirming today that it does plan to convert that fund to a spot ETF eventually and CEO Michael son and John telling squawk box this morning that he expects competitive pressure going forward and they stand ready to reduce fees. But one other big thing analysts have been watching, the grayscale discounting. It used to be a premium, but it's been trading at a discount and roughly 15% discount to the price of Bitcoin since earlier this year. That's been blamed on a 6 month lockup period of initial investments in that fund. Holders aren't able to redeem shares and react to bitcoins. Market price in real time. Sources have been telling me the traders in some cases are buying grayscale betting that that spread would collapse if it is approved as an ETF and they're using it as sort of a way to buy Bitcoin at a discount. Melissa, Kay, thank you, Kate Rooney. Karen, we actually have talked about this in the past that discount. I'm wondering what your thoughts on that seems like it would have to close. It would have to trade apart some point if it's going to be an ETF reflective of the price. Right. This is the kind of thing you and I talk about actually. The GBTC discount rate. I mean, in prior, in its prior life before there were other products, it actually had that premium when Bitcoin was in a frenzy and people would pay over, which never quite understood. But I don't know how easy it is going to be for them to convert. But at the discount here, it's practically as wide as it's been. I think 21 or two is what it's been. I think it was 18 today. So I don't know, you know, Kate mentioned maybe people buying that. Can you short the future against it and see if that spread narrows? That would seem to be a not super risky bet, but you'd have to it sounds like hang on to your GBTC for a while. I think this size of this discount is interesting. Yeah, Jeff? Yeah, I mean, I think that's something investors just need to pay attention to in terms of the tracking area associated with some of these things that aren't actually owning the cryptocurrency. I think that's super important. If you look at the past year, Bitcoin up over 300% grayscale up a little less than 200%. So there is going to be a massive difference when you're not actually holding Bitcoin. I think that's important. There'll be less of a difference in a futures ETF, for example, but still you're not owning Bitcoin, so I think that's important to know, and it's not going to track the spot price. Again, I think the Holy Grail is an ETF that invests directly in Bitcoin. I think this is a step in that direction, but we're not there yet. And the timing is uncertain. So in terms of the narrowing of that discount, the timing is uncertain there too. All right, coming up, short.

Kate Rooney Bitcoin Kathy wood Michael son Melissa invesco Kate GBTC Kay Karen John Jeff
"gbtc" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

02:40 min | 3 months ago

"gbtc" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"The oil rebound Can I buy USO and I would say no this is not for you Oil stock or something So USO is a perfect example The only difference is I talked to Mike mook going earlier about the futures market He thinks we've overestimated the roll cost per year He thinks it's more like 5% only and it will look like gold given all incentive to ARB this market So it's possible if the roll cost annually is 5% and not 2030 or something like vix which could be 40 That's not too bad I mean there might be some long-term buy in hole takers with that kind of tracking We'll see But I think a lot of advisers have been once bitten twice shy because they might have used USO or they used to be expects and they said oh anything with futures I don't want any part of it So it'll be interesting to see if it can pull in some of those long-term dollars if it can track well over like medium and long terms Eric what should we expect What do you expect for ownership of this Bitcoin ETF It will be primarily retail or do you think it'll get some institutional love I think it'll get institutional as if it gets volume Institutions love liquidity The one thing institutions can't really get anywhere else except for ETFs is super duper liquidity That's why they still use spy right They could get the S&P and a separate account for like one basis point but they will use spy as a liquidity sleeve or a quick way to hedge if that's why the race to come out first in this particular case is so important because there's only enough volume for one or two to be like massive liquidity beast And so first to market gives you a major advantage So I do think there will be institutional usage for the ones that are really liquid The ones that come out fourth 5th and aren't able to get that really top notch liquidity Those probably will not be touched by institutions Institutions really again they'll look for stuff that trades over a $100 million a day They don't touch other stuff Whereas advisers will vote to ones that don't trade as much Eric there are Canadian ETFs that are backed by I'll say physical Bitcoin right I don't know what else to say but why is that a problem for U.S. investors or any U.S. investors not able to invest in Canadian ETFs Yes that's the thing like it's tricky to get up there and also there's currency issues So I will say I've heard that some of the investors in BTCC which is the Canadian physically back to get far from the U.S. I think Cassie wood is a great example Ark owns GBTC right But she doesn't like it because it's trail the Bitcoin spot by a 160 percentage points over the last 12 months That's not good That's like ten years of roll costs So GBTC is actually a whole nother situation.

Mike mook Eric S U.S. Cassie wood GBTC BTCC Ark
"gbtc" Discussed on The Breakdown with NLW

The Breakdown with NLW

03:14 min | 3 months ago

"gbtc" Discussed on The Breakdown with NLW

"The Valkyrie Bitcoin strategy ETF, the invesco Bitcoin strategy ETF, and the van eck Bitcoin strategy ETF all with those potential approval dates that happened during the month of October. So you're following along last night, people are getting more and more excited. We're watching the price go up and up and up. Then this morning, James safe fart also from Bloomberg writes there it is. Bloomberg's data team in the process of adding the pro shares Bitcoin strategy ETF to the terminal. Tiger will be BIT O 95 basis points less than half of GBTC 2% fee. This thing is going live next week, either Monday or Tuesday. Bao Kunis added Valkyrie just filed an 8 a yet another step indicating that they will be going effective. That said I'm still waiting on pro shares updated prospectus to get that.

"gbtc" Discussed on The Breakdown with NLW

The Breakdown with NLW

03:49 min | 7 months ago

"gbtc" Discussed on The Breakdown with NLW

"Cash there are two impacts on the markets one derivatives playing the carry trade a by bitcoin spot. Put it integrates. Scale be received shares. See short btc futures to head risk de earn yield from shorting bitcoin e earned the premium unlocking f cell. Gtc shares for usd g unhedged shorts g. is bullish effectively. What willie is saying here. Is that part of this. Trade involved inherently shorting bitcoin as a hedge and when the trade itself unwind so to do those shorts for his second market impact. He discusses the same sort of incentive that ben davenport was talking about before he writes to spot markets when shares unlock and get sold the premium drops share price drops relative to the bitcoin and the trust investors now have more incentive to buy shares rather than btc it diverts them of the buying pressure on bitcoin spot markets. This is bearish won. The derivatives impact is sudden indirectly impactful while to the spot market impact.

ben davenport Gtc willie bitcoin btc
"gbtc" Discussed on The Breakdown with NLW

The Breakdown with NLW

05:00 min | 7 months ago

"gbtc" Discussed on The Breakdown with NLW

"Morgan for c. investors. Selling at least some of their shares leading to downward pressure on prices on bitcoin markets more generally on june twenty third melting d'humieres wrote one thing we haven't discussed yet gray scale. Gb unlock schedule is looking really crusty. For mid april to mid june one hundred and thirty nine thousand. Bitcoin worth of shares have unlocked. There's another one hundred and forty thousand. Bitcoin worth of shares. That will unlock through the end of july. Yeesh ben davenport pointed out on lynn. Alden thread that it wasn't just the gray scale had stopped buying bitcoin. He said spot on. And it's actually worse than that. The negative premium causes new marginal buyers of bitcoin to be more attracted to buy g. Btc than to buy spot since discount will eventually close upon etf conversion. What he's referring to is the fact. That gray scale has signalled their commitment to transform the trust into a bitcoin. Atf atf and at that point there will no longer be a discount or premium. It will just mere the price of bitcoin which means in effect this discount is.

"gbtc" Discussed on The Breakdown with NLW

The Breakdown with NLW

02:47 min | 7 months ago

"gbtc" Discussed on The Breakdown with NLW

"Profit maximalist. Twitter famous loomed. Art said that he saw a pretty meaningful number of firms and funds last year. Use the paper gains of the nab trade as a way to blunt other failures in losses the example he uses that if a fund one hundred million dollars from the premium was twenty percent. They could immediately booked twenty million in profit on paper. Even though there was that six month lockup this could as you might imagine cover. All manner of sins and that premium was available there were record high premiums towards the end of last year. Getting all the way to forty percent on december seventeenth and whatever the combination of reasons that companies were buying. gbd's shares. it feels clear. In retrospect that the run-up in bitcoins price was correlated with gtc buying then alden shared a chart that showed this dramatically. What's more she showed that as the premium turn to a discount gray scale stopped buying in that within a couple of months bitcoin had started to fall again on june twenty eighth. She tweeted bears. Focusing on tethers impact on bitcoin over the past year would have probably done better to focus on the gray scale. Neutral arbitrage traded stead when new competition resulted in the market taking away. Gpt's premium to nab the biggest. Bitcoin buyer stopped buying in other words. Part of the run-up in the second half of twenty twenty was due to the gray scale. Neutral arbitrage trades sucking in a ton of bitcoin when ats and other new ways to access. Bitcoin may gtc less unique. The premium went away so the neutral arb- trade went away then of course after the biggest buyer vanished at retail investors pouring into all coins to euphoric levels. Alonzo she backtracking. Leverage traders getting liquidated on the correction momentum traders stepping away etc. She goes on the biggest buyer in q. Two twenty twenty was gray. Scale when gbd's premium over now turned into a discount in late february twenty twenty one the neutral arbitrage trade dried up and gray scale stopped buying in now gradually cells btc to fund expenses thus the biggest buyer vanished and a lot of that was the neutral arbitrage trade. So as you can see lynn's focus here is how the end of that. Particular trade ended a particular by pressure. That had been key in driving prices up but this week. That's only been part of the focus of the discussion. We're twitter has really been focused on what happens as the shares. That were bought six months ago. Actually unlock will this. Be bearish or bullish. The opinions are extremely split in j. p. morgan's latest analysis. They consider it a bearish force. They wrote quote. Despite some improvement are signals remain overall. Bearish selling of shares exiting the six-month lock-up period during june july has.

gbd Bitcoin gtc alden twitter Gpt Alonzo lynn morgan
"gbtc" Discussed on The Breakdown with NLW

The Breakdown with NLW

02:33 min | 7 months ago

"gbtc" Discussed on The Breakdown with NLW

"Just like holy. There's risk all over the place in this. There's layers of risk. Systemic risk opaque risk unknowable. Risk wales minor's. Tether tether court cases podcasts about tether blog post about tether from anonymous sources counterparties price manipulation regulation exchange hacks custody hacks user data hacks project tax global macro hard forks bit next. Death spirals stop runs exit scams other scams scammers aggressive market makers gtc nab trade. Unwind sim swaps code. Bugs trump tweets false rumors true rumors tech obsolescence rehabilitation forced sellers legal actions liquidity crunches market illiquidity brad. Sherman's punk ass so to- she's million. Bitcoin exchange order glitches bad data president. She it that's not even close to an exhaustive list of the risks. They're present but over. Its history bitcoins up. Like eleven million percent. So you've gotten paid for the risk that you've taken so far one in that list that maybe flew a little under the radar then because this was february. Sixth was this idea of. Gtc naveh trade unwind so what pray tell was the naveh trade. What is its unwind. And what might it mean for markets. Well before we talk about the nab trade we should talk about what the gray scale bitcoin trust is however i suppose before that a couple of disclosures are in order the first is that gray scale is owned by the digital currency group. The same company that owns coin desk. The second is that. I'll use this as a chance to remind listeners. That while coin desk is an unbelievable production distribution and sales partner of the show. The breakdown is one hundred percent entirely editorially controlled by me. I own the ip. I make the decisions about the topics and that was built in from day. One into the terms of our partnership part of what. I appreciate so much about these guys. Is that respected that independence right from the get go so the point of that is that when i talk about gray scale. It's because it's relevant not because there some larger. Overlapping interest all right without out of the way back to what the bitcoin trust. Actually it's the gray scale. Bitcoin trust is one. The biggest bitcoin fund in the world and to the historical leader in letting public market investors get exposure to btc via a public market vehicle. The way it works is that accredited investors are able to buy shares of the fund directly daily private placements and then sell.

Risk wales minor Tether tether court gtc nab Gtc naveh Bitcoin Sherman
"gbtc" Discussed on The Breakdown with NLW

The Breakdown with NLW

04:23 min | 7 months ago

"gbtc" Discussed on The Breakdown with NLW

"Now as you will well know. I talk a lot on this show about the big picture. Global macro large patterns of history where bitcoin fits as a disruptive force how that disruption is connected to other larger global trends. I mean hell. I actually used fifteenth century generalist merchant networks as a reference point yesterday and frankly took all my resolve not to go more in depth about how italian merchants used social capital and social networks as the grounding for some of the earliest modern economic instruments. And you get the point. I love some good historical context. And i love big patterns however hopefully you've also heard me explain why because i'm so inclined towards macro pattern is tick explanations of things. I'm always trying to check that impulse. With data and with other explanations that don't necessarily involve some grand narrative or great pattern of history in particular when it comes to bitcoin in the crypto market. As a whole. I try to spend a little more time on market structure to better understand what i mean. Let's take an example of one. The market crashes earlier this year when after some combination of ilan backing off. btc and china announcing some ban. Bitcoin spent the weekend dumping from around forty two k. All the way back down under thirty k. The narrative explanations of this were plentiful ilan not only triggered the as g folks with new line at environmental inquiry. He also scared off. The institutional and treasury investors who had previously been using tesla as a model china was setting pace for how governments. We're going to start banning bitcoin and so on and so forth. Here's the thing it's not that these narratives were wrong. It's that they didn't explain the drama of the move down. We saw remember when i had travis cling on the show a few months ago his main thesis the thing that was frustrating him then was the disingenuous nature of a new set of critics. These critics effectively shared one thing in common. They pointed to one area of fudd or risk and said because of this concern. Bitcoin is worth nothing. You should be far far away. Travis's point was that as a capital alligator. Your job is to price risk not to throw the baby out with the bathwater so to put what happened that week before such a massive rapid drop in those terms the larger risk that these events represented was real but the price of that risk was absolutely not a thirty percent. Drop in a couple of hours now for that..

Bitcoin china tesla treasury travis Travis
"gbtc" Discussed on CoinDesk Podcast Network

CoinDesk Podcast Network

03:50 min | 7 months ago

"gbtc" Discussed on CoinDesk Podcast Network

"Shares unlocking and being available to be sold for cash there two impacts on the markets one derivatives playing the carry trade a by bitcoin spot. Put it integrates. Scale be received shares see short. Btc futures to head risk de earn yield from shorting bitcoin e earned the premium unlocking f cell. Gtc shares for usd g unhedged shorts g. is bullish effectively. What really is saying here. Is that part of this. Trade involved inherently shorting bitcoin as a hedge and when the trade itself unwind so to do those shorts for his second market impact. He discusses the same sort of incentive that ben davenport was talking about before he writes to spot markets when shares unlock and get sold that ubt premium drops share price drops relative to the bitcoin and the trust investors now have more incentive to buy shares rather than btc. It diverts them of the buying pressure on bitcoin spot markets. This is bearish won. The derivatives impact is sudden indirectly impactful while to the spot market impact acts very slowly the overall impact over the long term as neutral as it's all arbitrage which balances out in time or you're analyzing is the short term demand and supply imbalances which may impact price. There's one more. Take on this. That i want to add in and it comes from a post by. Qc capital effectively. Their argument is that this is overblown. And we're only discussing it as much as we are because we have nothing else to discuss they write the upcoming unlocks or for institutional holders who subscribe directly to. Gbd's six months ago and this badge consists of all the new q. On twenty twenty one positions largely arc's last trunch to state. Clearly we don't expect these unlocks on its own to have significant impact on the overall market outside of itself most of the large institutional positions who had subscribed in kind before have already been unlocked earlier and they have held off selling at the current discounted price moreover we know a large chunk of arc. Steak is for a variety of their current. Etf's like their next generation internet etf the fact that the market is so focused on something like this just shows the lack of real catalysts of market moving events right. Now let's wrap this up and what to make of all of this well for one. I genuinely have no idea what combination of bullish and bearish it is. And i don't think i'm alone either. All coin psycho asked a couple of days ago is the this month bullish or bearish two days later in one hundred and forty comments later. There is no consensus. I will say that one perspective that probably also deserves. Some airtime is the efficient market hypothesis. Take which is that unlocks are already priced in given that we've known about them for the entire duration of the trade but that would require a whole episode on the efficient markets hypothesis. So i think. I'll pass that for now if i was really pushed. I think my argument would be that. The unlock phenomenon is ultimately a pretty transitory phenomenon. And one that given that no one can really seem to decide what the outcome will be is likely to net out to fairly neutral with only a little impact one direction or the other. What seems more significant to me is simply acknowledging how tied into the run-up the gtc now trade was in the first place in other words. The most bearish thing about gray scale. Isn't these set of unlocks. It was the shift from premium to a discount and the consequent loss of perhaps the biggest buying pressure. We had in the space that help stop the momentum. Going into the absolute barrage of fudd that characterized the last quarter ultimately like i said at the beginning. I'm always interested to understand more about market structure. And the forces shaping markets that aren't just the narratives that makes so much intuitive sense to my brain so hopefully this journey has been helpful for you as well if you still have questions. Hit me up on twitter at an l. w. and i'll do my best to get them answered for now guys. I appreciate you listening. If you're enjoying the show please go rate and review it. It makes a big difference and until tomorrow be safe to take care of each other piece..

ben davenport Qc capital Gtc bitcoin Etf twitter
"gbtc" Discussed on CoinDesk Podcast Network

CoinDesk Podcast Network

01:50 min | 7 months ago

"gbtc" Discussed on CoinDesk Podcast Network

"Release price dropped ten percent big releases in early. February had no negative effect since tesla and musk force. The markets higher march twenty second and twenty four seventeen thousand bitcoin worth of shares being released. Bitcoin dropped fourteen percent. Here's the real big story from april fourteenth top until may twentieth one day post bottom. A total of seventy seven thousand. Bitcoin worth of shares were released. The biggest single they released in that period may twentieth one day after the bottom. Was someone shorting in advance of this. Release this mega unlock period corresponds to a fifty percent drop in bitcoin price. It is possible. This correlation not causation. Yes but you must admit it is super suspiciously timed remember. no actual. Bitcoin is being released to market and yet the correlation is incredible. Why are the markets. Dumping in unison with gtc unlocks if no spot dumping is happening. It seems very clear that the institutions are shorting big time before major releases. It is likely they will short the coming unlock of forty one thousand bitcoin worth of shares in late july final thoughts in theory release should have no market impact on spot prices but this market like all markets is massively manipulated and the product is too complex for most investors so it allows manipulators to prey on you by spreading this information. The good news is that after july there won't be any more big unlocks anytime soon. So august will likely be quite bullish as the effect of the institution shorting gbi releases subsides. What am i doing. Same old same old buying bitcoin on a regular basis. And if the manipulators drop it in late july to this malarkey than i will buy more so as you can see. Lark has some theories around manipulation in the market. But either way he's not really worried. He sees this as if anything a transitory temporary phenomenon. Willie we also had a threat on this. He wrote jp morgan. Bearish on the unlock coming up. Here will go through the inner workings so you can make up your own mind there to impacts one bullish bearish. The key is in how they interact. In my opinion it'll be immediately. Bullish gray..

Bitcoin tesla gbi Lark jp morgan Willie
"gbtc" Discussed on CoinDesk Podcast Network

CoinDesk Podcast Network

02:46 min | 7 months ago

"gbtc" Discussed on CoinDesk Podcast Network

"Twitter famous loomed art said that he saw a pretty meaningful number of firms and funds last year. Use the paper. Gains of the nab trade as a way to blunt other failures in losses the example he uses that if a fund one hundred million dollars when the premium was twenty percent. They could immediately booked twenty million in profit on paper. Even though there was that six month lockup this could as you might imagine cover. All manner of sins and that premium was available. There were record high premiums towards the end of last year getting all the way to forty percent on december seventeenth and whatever the combination of reasons that companies were buying. gbd's shares. It feels clear. In retrospect that the run-up in bitcoins price was correlated with gtc buying then alden shared a chart that showed this dramatically. What's more she showed that as the premium turn to a discount gray scale stopped buying in that within a couple of months bitcoin had started to fall again on june twenty eighth. She tweeted bears. Focusing on tethers impact. Bitcoin over the past year would have probably done better to focus on the gray scale. Neutral arbitrage traded stead when new competition resulted in the market taking away. Gpt's premium to nab the biggest. Bitcoin buyer stopped buying in other words. Part of the run up in the second half of twenty twenty was due to the gray scale neutral arbitrage trades sucking in a ton of bitcoin when ats and other new ways to access. Bitcoin may g btc less unique. The premium went away. So the neutral arb- trade went away then of course after the biggest buyer vanished at retail investors pouring into all coins to euphoric levels alonzo s she backtracking leverage traders getting liquidated on the correction momentum traders stepping away etc. She goes on the biggest buyer byron q. Two twenty twenty was gray. Scale when gbd's premium over now turned into a discount in late february twenty twenty one the neutral arbitrage trade dried up and gray scale stopped buying in now gradually cells btc to fund expenses thus the biggest buyer vanished and a lot of that was the neutral arbitrage trade. So as you can see lynn's focus here is how the end of that. Particular trade ended a particular by pressure. That had been key in driving prices up but this week. That's only been part of the focus of the discussion. We're twitter has really been focused on what happens as the shares. That were bought six months ago. Actually unlock will this. Be bearish or bullish. The opinions are extremely split in j. p. morgan's latest analysis. They consider it a bearish force. They wrote quote. Despite some improvement are signals remain overall. Bearish selling of shares exiting the six-month lock-up period during june july has emerged as an additional headwind for bitcoin. As coin desk puts it quote after unlocking investors have the option of liquidating their shareholdings in the secondary market analysts at j.p.

gbd Bitcoin gtc alden Twitter Gpt alonzo byron lynn morgan
"gbtc" Discussed on CoinDesk Podcast Network

CoinDesk Podcast Network

06:57 min | 7 months ago

"gbtc" Discussed on CoinDesk Podcast Network

"Are the gray scale. Bitcoin trust unwinds bullish or bearish for bitcoin. Now as you will well know. I talk a lot on this show about the big picture. Global macro large patterns of history where bitcoin fits as a disruptive force how that disruption is connected to other larger global trends. I mean hell. I actually used fifteenth century. Genoese merchant networks as a reference point yesterday and frankly it took all my resolve not to go more in depth about how italian merchants used social capital and social networks as the grounding for some of the earliest modern economic instruments. And you get the point. I love some good historical context. And i love big patterns however hopefully you've also heard me explain why because i'm so inclined towards macro pattern is tick explanations of things. I'm always trying to check that impulse. With data and with other explanations that don't necessarily involve some grand narrative or great pattern of history in particular when it comes to bitcoin in the crypto market. As a whole. I try to spend a little more time on market structure to better understand what i mean. Let's take an example of one of the market crashes earlier this year when after some combination of ilan backing off. Btc and china announcing some ban. Bitcoin spent the weekend dumping from around forty two k. All the way back down under thirty k. The narrative explanations of this were plentiful ilan not only triggered the as g folks with new line at environmental inquiry. He also scared off. The institutional and treasury investors who had previously been using tesla as a model china was setting pace for how governments. We're going to start banning bitcoin and so on and so forth. Here's the thing it's not that these narratives were wrong. It's that they didn't explain the drama of the move down. We saw remember when i had travis cling on the show a few months ago his main thesis the thing that was frustrating him then was the disingenuous nature of a new set of critics. These critics all effectively shared one thing in common. They pointed to one area of fudd or risk and said because of this concern. Bitcoin is worth nothing. You should be far far away. Travis's point was that as a capital alligator. Your job is to price risk not to throw the baby out with the bathwater so to put what happened that week before such a massive rapid drop in those terms the larger risk that these events represented was real but the price of that risk was absolutely not a thirty percent. Drop in a couple of hours no for that. There had to be some other explanation. There was for some time now. Crypto markets had been led by derivatives not stop trading and a big part of crypto trading is trading with leverage when prices move quickly down like they did that day. Many accounts got margin called and ultimately liquidated in other words because of the terms of the exchanges they were trading with their collateral got liquidated to cover their losses this happened automatically and as such ruthlessly and without feeling and most importantly without regard for the price at which the sale happened when impact of that was that the liquidations were cascading that automated four selling had to move to lower and lower prices to complete their trades and as that happens still others got liquidated and so on and so forth all the way down to listen to someone like sam trip. Yuko from alameda. Research discuss this particular event on luke martin's podcast with the market wanted to do that day was go from forty two k. Or so to around forty care. So but that thirty nine k or forty k. Level had been a key level of a lot of people entering the market on the way up meaning that it was a key trigger point for liquidations on the way down the rest of that forty k. to thirty k. Drop wasn't panic selling. It was forced selling so to sum this all up. There was a narrative element to that big weekend crash. A repricing of the risk based on. Espn china concerns around. Bitcoin from about forty two k. to forty k. but the twenty five percent drop. That happened after that was all market structure and leveraged liquidations so with that setup. Let's discuss the market structure question. That has most been on people's minds this week. And that is the question of grey scale. Bitcoin trust btc unlocks actually return one more time to that travis cling interview and. Let's play his epic list of all of the risks that exists around bitcoin so much risk president and this always been my whole career and traditional investing. I stepped into this thing. I was just like holy. There's risk all over the place in this. There's layers of risk. Systemic risk opaque risk unknowable. Risk wales minor's tether tether court cases podcasts about tether blog post about tether from anonymous sources counterparties price manipulation regulation exchange hacks custody hacks user data hacks project hacks global macro hard forks bit mixed. Death spirals stop runs exit scams other scams scammers aggressive marketmakers. Gtc nab trade. Unwind sim swaps code. Bugs trump tweets false rumors true rumors tech obsolescence rehabilitation forced sellers legal actions liquidity crunches market illiquidity brad. Sherman's punk ass. So she's million. Bitcoin exchange order glitches bad data president. She it s not even close to an exhaustive list of the risks. They're present but over. Its history bitcoins up. Like eleven million percent. So you've gotten paid for the risk that you've taken so far one in that list that maybe flew a little under the radar then because this was february. Sixth was this idea of naveh trade unwind. So what pretell was the naveh trade. What is its unwinding. What might it mean for markets. Well before we talk about the nab trade we should talk about what the gray scale bitcoin trust is however i suppose before that a couple of disclosures are in order the first is that gray scale is owned by the digital currency group. The same company that owns coin desk. The second is that. I'll use this as a chance to remind listeners. That while coin desk is an unbelievable production distribution and sales partner of the show. The breakdown is one hundred percent entirely editorially controlled by me. I own the ip. I make the decisions about the topics and that was built in from day. One into the terms of our partnership part of what. I appreciate so much about these guys. Is that respected that independence right from the get go so the point of that is that when i talk about gray scale. It's because it's relevant not because there are some larger. Overlapping interest all right without out of the way back to what the bitcoin trust. Actually it's the gray scale. Bitcoin trust is one. The biggest bitcoin fund in the world and to the historical leader in letting public market investors get exposure to btc via a public market vehicle. The way it.

Bitcoin china luke martin travis Btc tesla Risk wales minor's tether teth treasury Yuko Travis alameda naveh Espn pretell sam Sherman
"gbtc" Discussed on Biz Talk Radio

Biz Talk Radio

01:35 min | 1 year ago

"gbtc" Discussed on Biz Talk Radio

"The GBTC from late I think was two thousand and seventeen what Qualcomm from nineteen ninety nine so we haven't gotten that and if you wanna know what a climactic movers Qualcomm went from fifty up to two hundred from November to January and the last move was one twenty to two hundred and four days but we haven't seen that yet so we'll let this go wherever it wants to go all I can tell you the big stuff moving out today and typically it works we're not trying to scare you we just studied markets we've studied this guy we study the fed we have a good understanding we really do so right this baby as long as it wants to go I don't worry about the bad news right now anything he does will sh overshadow and when you have all the big names breaking out once the big cap names it's meaningful and if anything changes we'll let you know but when now when this little position of the works that was first for wiles pulled back and we're gonna we don't know where it's going to pull back to for how long what we don't want is the pull back and then a day or two I.

Qualcomm wiles
"gbtc" Discussed on Biz Talk Radio

Biz Talk Radio

03:21 min | 1 year ago

"gbtc" Discussed on Biz Talk Radio

"Back because the market will no longer react to them but it can happen from much higher prices and many months or even years down the road but I will tell you how it ends the climactic move an Eiffel Tower move in the in the C. in the in the six kind of like what the nasdaq starting to look like and if you wanted to we mean just plug in the year two thousand the stock to see what we mean or chart of Tilray or charter the GBTC firmly I think was two thousand and seventeen what Qualcomm from nineteen ninety nine so we haven't gotten that and if you wanna know what a climactic movers Qualcomm went from fifty up to two hundred from November to January at the last move was one twenty to two hundred and four days but we haven't seen that yet so we'll let this go wherever it wants to go all I can tell you the big stuff moving out today and typically it works I'm not trying to scare you we just studied markets we've studied this guy we study the fed we have a good understanding we really do so right this baby as long as it wants to go I don't worry about the bad news right now anything he does will sh overshadow and when you have all the big names breaking out once the big cap names it's meaningful and if anything changes we'll let you know but when now when this little position of the works that was first for wiles pulled back and we're gonna we don't know where it's going to pull back to or how long what we don't want is the pull back and then a day or two like the to go for a few days at least thanks we'll think of something thanks for being here I'm Gary this one only investors at your business content I mean if you didn't like business content you would be listening to the show right what if I can give you even more of what your life now we've never met but I'm willing to bet you were very busy between work family and outside commitments this car ride is your time to catch up on your favorite show but do you always get.

Qualcomm wiles Gary Eiffel Tower