20 Burst results for "Garfield Reynolds"

"garfield reynolds" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

05:02 min | Last week

"garfield reynolds" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Pushing in place a scheme for business that will be equivalent to the scheme of the households. What I can say is that the scheme will apply from the 1st of October to make sure businesses have that security through the winter. That was the prime minister Les trusts, the bailout package for businesses caused cost about 40 billion pounds it comes on top of support for households which will see their energy prices frozen for two years from October just to bring you the latest figures that we're getting on the UK budget deficit as well. Those just coming through from the UK government this morning, the UK budget deficit, X banking group's 11.8 billion pounds in August. We have also seen the overall budget deficit for an April to August at coming in just slightly higher than expectations, 58.2 billion pounds, the OBR forecast had been for 58 billion pounds. And staying in the UK investors are pushing the prime minister to uphold a commitment to eliminate net greenhouse gas emissions. In a letter to Liz trust, the heads of three investor coalition said it was in the UK's national and economic interest to remain a global leader on climate action. Under previous prime ministers, the country became the first major economy to pass a net zero emissions law. Britain and other countries now are being hit hard by the energy crisis forcing governments and investors to take stock of their public commitments to reduce emissions. Those are our top stories just to remind you we are watching Vladimir Putin speaking on Russian television at the moment, we will bring you the latest from that as it happens. For us though, let's get more on what's the main market event today, which is that Federal Reserve decision last week's ugly reading for consumer prices in the U.S. cementing bats for a third straight 75 basis point hike from the fares, expectations have sent stocks, tumbling, and pushing treasury yields higher as well. Let's bring in our chief rights correspondent Garfield Reynolds, Garfield's could the fed surprise us today and where do you think the potential for surprise could come from? Well, I think there's a couple of potential surprise points here. And in a lot of ways, I think the fed has to surprise markets. Jerome Powell surprised everyone with just how fervent he was underneath to fight inflation at Jackson hole. Since then, markets have made a habit of trimming back expectations for how tough the fed will be. And yet the data have not seriously turned away from where they were when he spoke. So the onus is on the fear to surprise, can either surprise by going a hundred basis points, which I think the markets are underpricing the potential for a hundred basis point hike today or they can surprise by what they do with the dot plots and how high they signal rates will go and how long they signal their likely to hold those rates. But of course they worry about front loading is that they won't be able to engineer a soft landing, can they get the balance right and not incur a recession? Well, I mean, the difficulty is whether they want to pay too much heed to getting that balance right. Again, pal and others when they were speaking said that the focus has to be on fighting inflation and that they need essentially to risk doing economic damage. Because the damage that they would do would be deeper and longer lasting if they fail to quash inflation. The subtext there too is that inflation has never come down from this sort of elevated level to the kind of levels that they want to see it at without a recession. So either the fed engineers a recession to quash inflation or inflation gets cost because there's an inflation that's not engineered by the fed. Tough decisions all around, talk to us about the international contacts for this. What influence can the fed decision have another central banks? Well, it has a very large influence. You're part of that is very much tied to what the U.S. dollar has been doing and the way it's been so dominant. You look at the yen at 24 year lows, you look at the UN, dropping past 7 per dollar, and there's not a lot of relief in sight there. So that causes plenty of economic damage globally. It also puts a lot of pressure on a lot of central banks like the BOA soon to come and then also the ECB next week and the RBA here in Australia next week. They all face a very difficult set of decisions themselves and what the fed does is going to feed into those decisions and how much scope they have to slow down if they're concerned that they are going too far too fast. Garfield Reynolds are chief rates correspondent. Thanks very much for joining us. This is Bloomberg. Now the paper review on Bluebird daybreak Europe. The news you need to know from today's papers. The new tax plans in the prime

UK fed Liz trust Garfield Reynolds Jerome Powell OBR Vladimir Putin Garfield Britain U.S. Jackson UN BOA RBA ECB Australia
"garfield reynolds" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

02:21 min | 3 weeks ago

"garfield reynolds" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Economists led by Jan hatzius expect the fed to raise rates 75 basis points this month, 50 basis points in November. The ECB is likely, although not certain to increase rates by 75 basis points today, according to market expectations, the European Central Bank last raised its key rate by three quarters of a percentage point in 1999. The odds of a 75 basis point Nat move now at about 65% according to swaps tied to the meeting, our chief rates correspondent Garfield Reynolds says the Euro could look very sick if the ECB ops for less than 75. The kind of the key for a lot of central banks is precisely that with the fed leading the way, if they don't stick with outsized hikes or in the ECB's case carry out a few more, they risk their currencies dropping a lot. And that in and of itself will fuel inflation pressures. Bloomberg's chief rights correspondent Garfield Reynolds speaking to us a little earlier, that decision from the European Central Bank to at one 15 London time today. Well, on Liz truss's first full day in office prime minister, the pound hit a low not seen since Margaret Thatcher was in power, Sterling fell to a dollar 14 on Wednesday the lowest level since 1985 and down 15% since the start of the year. Malachi policy committee member Catherine Mann, warned MPs yesterday that inflation is becoming embedded. The short term inflation that fueled in particular has talked about and others, the energy price inflation. It's very real. It's very salient to households. It's very important for business. Those short term inflation spikes are becoming increasingly embedded in domestic, more domestic oriented prices. That was NPC member Catherine Mann speaking to the treasury select committee. The latest figures on job vacancies could be an early sign of that slowing economic growth. They grew in August at the slowest pace in 18 months according to KPMG and the recruitment and employment confederation. Well, let's say in the UK, there's trust set to make her first major policy announcement later with a plan to tackle soaring energy bills, the package could see the government spend as much as 200 billion pounds over the next 18 months to cap prices. Speaking during her first appearance at

ECB Garfield Reynolds Jan hatzius Catherine Mann fed Liz truss Malachi policy committee Margaret Thatcher Bloomberg London treasury select committee NPC KPMG UK
"garfield reynolds" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

07:14 min | Last month

"garfield reynolds" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"The top of the hour we check the markets. You have every 15 minutes on Bloomberg radio, Asian stocks and U.S. equity futures are taking a tumble this morning. The nikkei down 2.7% and the cost be down 2.3%. Long duration asset companies are really struggling the most we're seeing information technology inside the nikkei down three and a half percent. So definitely outperforming to the downside. Those long duration assets struggle when interest rates are going up, we've got the two year yield up to levels not seen since 2007 at three point four 4%. Now we hit three 45 early this morning and the ten year yield here 3.08%. It picked up four basis points from the close. Fed chief Jerome Powell warned of economic pain for households and businesses. I was very strong language in the comments contrast with market bets earlier for reductions in rates next year as growth slows and again, equities are taking the brunt of the selling. Let's take a look at some individual players, a Japan display in Tokyo in that market trading down 4.7% this morning. You've got SK Hynix down 2.9% Samsung down about 2%. The dollar is a lot stronger, up four tenths of 1%, the Bloomberg dollar spot threatening to push past 1300 dalien one 38 35, some of the commodity linked currencies getting hit hard. The Aussie 68.62 U.S. cents, and right now looking more generally at Europe, where we're also expecting much higher interest rates, the heroes trading at 99.3 U.S. cents, WTI crude 93 35 a barrel, and if you're looking at havens, gold's not doing that well down three tenths of a percent, and in the crypto markets Bitcoin is trading at 19,640. And that is a check of markets, a couple of quick headlines for you news headlines at Baxter is off this week. Two U.S. Navy warships sailing through the Taiwan strait, the PLA says it's monitoring the cruisers. Widespread flooding in Pakistan has killed more than a thousand people. The country has been hit by serious flash floods since the middle of June, and Sichuan province in China has a sworn restored most of the power supplies for both industries and businesses. And that's a quick look at headline news. Juliet. Thanks, Brian. Let's get more on the market action and join Garfield Reynolds Bloomberg chief correspondent for writes who joins us in Sydney, so Garfield, I mean such significant kind of repricing happening here. We knew J power was going to be hawkish. Why do you think we're seeing such big moves? Well, he did a good job ultimately, I think, have actually exceeding the expectations for him to be hawkish. And in particular, he somewhat reminiscent of what went on at sintra, which was the last big global Central Bank meeting where there he was asked point blank about the prospect that you would get a recession out of the fed's policy. And the rest of what's going on. And back then, he essentially refused to rule out a recession. And really, between the life, he came pretty close to ruling one in at his speech, which he kept brief, but he did also say inflation is what has to be for there will be pain to households. There will needs to be. The needs to be below trend demand growth for some time in order to get inflation under control. It's very hard to get below trend growth for a while without getting a recession. So yeah, and stocks had some extreme reactions on Friday. That might have muddied the waters a bit for treasuries because some money came out of stocks that went into treasuries, just as haven flows. And now we're seeing treasury sell off a bit more today. And I think that's just a delayed reaction. Let's talk about what we are seeing in the bond market and potentially that inversion as well really suggesting that a recession could be on the cards now. Yeah, indeed, I mean, the several comments out already this morning from strategists and I would tend to concur. You can expect further bare flattening, I for short term yields to go up faster than long-term yields, which would fit if you've got a Central Bank saying, hey, we're going to keep on raising rates until we're sure that inflation is brought sustainably under control and we're willing to risk a recession to do so. So the two tens for the U.S. curve is at about 36 basis points. We could easily see that get back down towards the 50 or more inversion levels that we saw earlier this year. Also be very interesting to take a look at the so called palka looking at very short term rates versus expectations for those rates in a year and a half's time. That's actually still some way above zero. You could kind of expect the fed to stick with the hawkish rhetoric as long as that stays sustainably away from zero because they've said back to them is what signals they're going to have to cut right soon so that they might be going too far too fast. All right, Garfield, thank you, as always, Garfield Reynolds is Bloomberg chief correspondent for rates joining us from Sydney and we'll be watching, of course, the big tech stocks as well. Some of them are already dropping after we saw fed chair J pal stoke these rate concerns. Let's move on now and talk about China's southwestern province of Sichuan, which has restored most power supplies for industries and businesses. This happened by Sunday at noon, according to state television, joining us to discuss his damn murto Bloomberg, Asia energy reporter with us in Beijing. So I think starting to get a little bit better from when we spoke to you last week down because we're kind of seeing a little bit of cooler weather as well. Yeah, Jules, we're seeing a lot of relief from the weather guides. It started raining over the weekend in Sichuan. The weather's dropped precipitously. Air conditioning demand dropped from about 24 gigawatts a week ago to about 12 gigawatts on Sunday. And hydropower generation, which is pretty low right now, has inched up a little bit as well. That means that there is a little bit more of a cushion for the power system. So the province was able to stop its full cutoff of power to industrial facilities. There are still some curves. It hasn't been a 100% power restored to factories. But it's a lot better than it was this time last week. It's a cooler weather reducing air conditioning demand as well. Tell us that I guess the impact here to factories and what kind of restarting we're seeing. What we're seeing a Honda, for example, is looking to restart their power parts factory in the city. We're still waiting as companies kind of wake up to this news this morning for more releases on specifics as far as whose restarting a 100% capacity who's just sort of slowly ramping up production. It's going to be interesting to see because, as you know, Sichuan is a major hub for a couple of industries, including EV batteries and solar panels. So people will be carefully watching those industries to see how quickly they can ramp up production again and get the supply chain for their industries back on track. I mentioned that we are

Jerome Powell SK Hynix U.S. Garfield Reynolds Bloomberg Bloomberg fed Sichuan Taiwan strait Garfield Central Bank Bitcoin
"garfield reynolds" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

02:36 min | Last month

"garfield reynolds" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"The fit, unwillingness to pivot towards anything less than a very strong, strongly hawkish stance is that financial conditions have actually become significantly less tight over the last month, even though the fed is still in the middle of as it says hiking rates expeditiously to combat inflation. So a stronger dollar for the moment is quite possibly something they would welcome even if not officially. Okay, what are you expecting from Jerome Powell at Jackson hole? Well, he's got a very tough gig in a lot of ways and for one thing, everybody still remembers a year ago, he got up there and said inflation would be transitory. That didn't go particularly well. The other thing is that by now the expectation that's very strong for him to stick with hawkish rhetoric and even double down on it, but he's going to have problems where almost anything he shares might end up as being interpreted again as potentially opening the door to a dovish pivot. So that's a difficult task, but to earn power, especially when the rhetoric that's been coming out of him and the rest of the search speakers are over the last couple of weeks is that even if inflation has peaked, it's still far too elevated. And they can not afford to slow down and they'll probably also probably also emphasize some of the points cash Carrie made earlier today about how the labor market remains strong as long as the labor market is showing strong jobs growth and low unemployment rate and strong wages growth, they don't see that there's a significant risk of the session, they do see the significant risk of inflation expectations becoming an anchor. And so they are going to probably keep 75 basis points on the table. I think would be the absolute minimum that Jerome Powell needs to flag in his speech if he is going to avoid the sort of rebound in risk assets that sort of climb down in treasury yields that key in the fed obviously had not interested in seeing at this time. Okay, Garfield Reynolds our chief correspondent for rights, thank you very much for that, of course, we will be covering the Jacksonville meeting of central bankers here on Bloomberg radio and on Bloomberg television as well, Jerome Powell speaking on Friday morning eastern

Jerome Powell fed Jackson Carrie Garfield Reynolds treasury Bloomberg radio Jacksonville Bloomberg
"garfield reynolds" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

04:30 min | 2 months ago

"garfield reynolds" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"That they're more specifically focused on Donald Trump. Correct? Well, I think they are focused on Donald Trump. Even without this Mar-a-Lago piece, because they have been asking people who come in to the grand jury questions about conversations they have, the Justice Department is also ramping up apparently to try to fight any declarations of executive privilege that Trump might have. So they're gearing up to do that to have a legal fight over that. Also, Trump has an attorney apparently in contact with the Justice Department on these January 6th things. So it's sort of unusual if a lawyer is in touch with the Justice Department. For the perceived defendant or for anyone, it's unusual then for them to issue a search warrant, you would expect that those documents would be turned over and Trump and his notes said, I've been cooperating with them. And we've turned over all these things. You know, of course, that doesn't mean anything. It could obviously they collected something from there. So it's going to be interesting to see what it is. Exactly. Okay, June, thank you so much, you had you add so much perspective everywhere you go. I really appreciate it. The host of Bloomberg law June Grasso. Yeah, he in the statement also referred to the United States now as a third world country. All right, back to you, Brian. All right, thanks very much. About 9 minutes past the hour let's get to Garfield Reynolds from Bloomberg's team to discuss the latest on markets. It seems like a fairly quiet start to the morning here, Garfield. What do you expect to be moving markets today? Well, it's quite possible it's going to be a very quiet day in a lot of ways. We had the extremely strong reaction to that surprisingly robust jobs report on Friday, which then still diverted into the Monday here. Some of those moves were taken back, especially in the bond market where we had yields edged out a bit. Aided by both the report on lower inflation expectations going forward about households and also those concerning equities numbers what was going on within video as you mentioned never backs. So it's a little bit of a gloomy outlook, but it's hard for investors to take a lot of really strong positions because we're all waiting for the CPI numbers out of the U.S. on Wednesday and whether or not those numbers will confirm or again blow out of the water suspicion amongst investors that inflation has peaked or maybe it's the hope amongst investors and inflation is paid and therefore the fed can start to slow down. Rate hikes before that's going to do too much damage to the economy. That seems a bit of a stretch. The face speakers have been very, very strong on being need to hike rates. You would probably have to have a pretty strong miss on the inflation data in order for the fed to really count its easing off the one I suppose saving grace for all of that is that we do have two months of data to come before we get to the next fed meeting. So that might aid investors helping to price in that pivot. So the market waiting for that big catalyst. There are a few smaller catalysts scattered about today, though. Those Nvidia results we have were a big miss beyond just being a disappointing result. What does that tell us about the broader demand picture? Just quickly. Well, I mean, that feeds into a lot of even some of the better earnings results out there of highlighted the concerns that consumers are reaching the limit that inflation is starting to destroy consumer demand. And being the question becomes again, does the fed stop in time or does it pile on as it were in destroying demand with fresh rate hikes? All right, Garfield, thank you, Bloomberg, Garfield, Reynolds, looking at Nvidia, the stock had moved down about 50% while more than 50% at one point and you'd have thought that a lot of this was baked in, but then when you look at the action today down 6.3%, you have to say, well, I guess not. All right, we'll take a closer

Justice Department Trump Donald Trump Garfield Reynolds Lago Grasso Garfield Bloomberg U.S. fed Brian Nvidia Reynolds
"garfield reynolds" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

02:01 min | 2 months ago

"garfield reynolds" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Has got very concerned too about what might be going on with the economy, the potential for recession, hence, right spot spicing in rate cuts next year. And there are also very convinced that the economic slowdown will result in a slowdown of inflation. Now, considering that a lot of the drivers for some of the really extreme price moves have been structural, supply shock sort of dynamics, things like what's going on with the war and Ukraine, the COVID shutdowns in China and what that has done to supply chains, all of those issues may not be particularly amenable even to a slowdown in growth and also to the impact of the rate hikes that are already in the system. So that's the key question going forward and we get a partial answer to that as early as later on today when the U.S. reports GDP. And also along with that reports, the core PCE, the deflation, the deflator, and that will that's expected to show a decent slowdown in the pace of price growth based on that measure. So if that does slow down, that would be a first real indicator that the market might be right. Inflation is going to come down. If it's a prices to the upside and we've had that happen a lot with inflation metrics over the last 12 months, then we could actually say quite a surprising reaction to that a lot also depends on what happens with the GDP. Do we get this, there's a lot of concern that maybe we'll get a second contraction of technical recession. If we got that, that might actually be taken as a good thing by the markets because that would be seen as definitely being something that would push the fed to slow the pace of rate hikes. Okay, plan to suggest there. Thanks very much. Bloomberg's chief rights correspondent Garfield Reynolds there with the latest on the fed. This is Bloomberg

Ukraine China U.S. fed Garfield Reynolds Bloomberg
"garfield reynolds" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

02:00 min | 4 months ago

"garfield reynolds" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"The expectations were for just under 3.8 billion sales did come in stronger than expected though at 19.2 billion versus expectations re smart also announcing the suspension of its Russian business was causing the financial hit of a €168 million That's the picture from Richmond this morning We've also been watching the market reaction after Chinese banks cut that benchmark 5 year loan prime rate by 15 basis points a larger cut that had been expected Chinese shares looking positive the CSI 300 up by almost 1.8% of the hang seng index in Hong Kong up by 2.22% although we were hearing from blueberries and current earlier that this is a cut targeting consumers and not necessarily the troubled real estate industry in China looking at towards the stock futures we're just an hour and 15 minutes away from the open here in Europe European shares call to open higher that Euro stocks 50 features are up one .1% the S&P 500 even futures are positive for up 8 tenths of 1% that's after a fall at up 6 tenths of 1% yesterday If you look at the currency markets Bloomberg started Bloomberg spot index dollar spot index is flat the URL is up slightly against our one O 5 82 the pound is flat at one 24 at 68 We're watching the Aussie dollar as well which is a little bit weaker down a tenth of 1% at 70 42 That's ahead of the elections there on Saturday Garfield Reynolds writing on markets live blog that actually no matter how those election results play out they won't see much reaction in Bond and currency markets oil Dan slightly today Brent crude and a third of a 1% WTI down 1.2% at just under a $111 a barrel and Bitcoin is down slightly down about half a percent at just over $30,000 That's the Bloomberg business flash now goes Leanne guerin's with today's top stories Steven thank you President Joe Biden could meet some today's top stories Stephen.

Bloomberg Richmond Garfield Reynolds Hong Kong China Europe Bitcoin Leanne guerin President Joe Biden Steven Stephen
"garfield reynolds" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

05:57 min | 6 months ago

"garfield reynolds" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"This is Bloomberg daybreak Europe We will continue on a remorseless mission to squeeze Russia from the global economy peace by piece day by day and week by week We're dealing with an individual who doesn't play by the rules So I've always been very clear by the French although he goes so far It is indeed a very dangerous moment It is basically the rewriting of the security system that we've known in Europe since the end of the Cold War Bloomberg daybreak Europe on Bloomberg radio And a very good morning from London I'm Caroline Hepburn welcome to Bloomberg daybreak Europe's President Biden is in Poland today after U.S. and European leaders met and tried to chart their response to Putin's war in Ukraine We'll be going live to Brussels this hour Also Russia being removed from the G 20 That is what President Biden has called for though there does seem to be change in tone perhaps from China on its stance towards Russia Meanwhile here in the UK the cost of living crisis in Britain consumer confidence is absolutely plunged is yet more bad news after Rishi sunak's spring statement A lot of criticism that that did not go far enough to help those poorest in society and unmistakable sense of crisis That was the line from JFK this morning around consumer confidence Let's go to the markets then this morning In terms of European stock futures we still are in positive territory just about recipe 500 evening features are up by a tenth of 1% Bonds have suffered these huge global losses but shares are rallying That is except for Asia the hang seng at the moment is down 2.2% this morning As for US Treasury yields ten year yields down a basis point at two 36 this morning Russian equities rose yesterday 4% after we had some shortened trading in about 33 out of the 50 stocks oil prices are down though a little bit although we rise a little bit this morning two tenths of 1% but we dropped yesterday breakthrough at a $119 the barrel JPMorgan saying that demand destruction is happening EU leaders held off a full Russian oil embargo though that really is the driving narrative in oil markets and Brent and a Bitcoin this morning at $44,114 up by half of 1% We see it at climbing above 44,000 for the first time in almost a month Let's get some more details then With our Bloomberg chief rates correspondent Garfield Reynolds who joins me to discuss the market good to have you on Garfield Look firstly I just also want to mention the Japanese yen which has been kind of unraveling in recent days and this has prompted the question on the Bloomberg terminal When does the end hit a 150 against the U.S. dollar Is that possible Garfield Why are you talking but it should go to the unlikely the move that's going on so far this year has been striking And it looks more a little bit different today So I would actually expect to then go further in the coming days because of some of the drivers that are there for us a weekend but a 150 is being still very far away Biggest thing is that we can pass a 125.8 trips again which was the June 2015 a lot of the Japanese currency But that's the weakest it's got amid all of the massive quantitative easing that's been carried out on the VOA covenant Corona Yeah absolutely JGB ten year yields rising to 24 basis points this morning So that on the yen what about treasury yields What do they now pricing in in terms of rate hikes Are they pricing in enough We had quite a game changing speech on Monday by the fed chair Jerome Powell Yes we definitely did And I think there's potential for professional treasuries In the coming weeks it may be even a little bit more today I think Asia had its own idiosyncratic reach off position today but nobody was too willing to go into treasuries with what's been going on And that might have still over the summer what happened to begin however when you look forward to the potential for some fresh concern about treasury in the day in European UX session there might be a bit of a pullback in at the beginning of next week because we get a really balanced win at the end of the quarter Is any portfolio going to actually need to buy treasuries back to be balanced therefore portfolios That will give us the research of the impact a look at where we could go from here and for example a 50 basis point hike in May is currently only about a 70 to 80% chance So if we get fresh aggression from a third if we get fresh data that will justify increasing inflation in turn then you could expect that pricing can move to 50 basis points fully in and that will send us at least another ten maybe 20 basis points higher for a lot of yields And potentially bring about some actual curve inversions Yes okay So that really is key and usually signaling concerns around recessionary risk those yield curve inversions so obviously one that we have to think about Garfield Thank you so much for being with me Garfield Reynolds there Full-time market commentary and analysis check out market's live ML IV on your Bloomberg terminal Let's get over to Bloomberg's Leanne gowns who has today's top stories now Good morning Good morning and thank you Let's start with the latest on Ukraine and Joe Biden is calling for Russia's removal from the G 20 The U.S..

President Biden Russia Europe Bloomberg radio Caroline Hepburn Rishi sunak US Treasury Bloomberg Garfield Reynolds Putin U.S. Brussels Ukraine Asia Jerome Powell
"garfield reynolds" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

05:25 min | 7 months ago

"garfield reynolds" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"This is Bloomberg daybreak Europe We will continue on a remorseless mission to squeeze Russia from the global economy peace by piece day by day and week by week We're dealing with an individual who doesn't play by the rules So I've always been very clear by the end of 20 days so far It is indeed a very dangerous moment It is basically the rewriting of these majority system that we've known in Europe since the end of the Cold War Bloomberg daybreak Europe on Bloomberg radio On a very good morning from London I'm Caroline Hepburn And I'm Tom McKenzie You're listening to daybreak Europe live on London DAB digital radio So a sort of slap across the face for bond markets power backing the idea of a half percentage point rate hike at the next fed meeting if that's necessary the weight of the war could push inflation expectations higher so thinking about 50 basis points And the view from some watching those and listening into those comments is that the focus very much is on the threat of inflation versus the growth threat from that conflict Goldman Sachs seeing as many as two 50 basis points hikes this year Yeah absolutely So we'll talk about what is happening in the yield curve and interpretations of it which vary really how much of a rest session we threat is yield curve inversion a big debate but also we'll continue our coverage of the war in Ukraine It is now close to a month that Russia has been puzzling cities in Ukraine Biden calling Russia desperate and warning of cyberattacks Let's go to the markets though and check the figures for you as we do every 15 minutes here on Bloomberg radio So let's look at the futures then which I currently sinking full tenths of 1% for the U.S. stocks 50 futures We went nowhere for European stocks yesterday S&P 500 in many features also dropped a quarter of 1% Bond markets getting a wake-up call bond sinking after Powell's hawkish comments The entire U.S. yield curve moving higher and significant flattening lively debate though about what all of that means What we have priced in though is 50 basis points for may but 25 basis points then for the other meetings June July September and November The Japanese yen falling to a 6 year low against the U.S. dollar currently trading at one 2032 Moscow stock trading won't reopen today as for oil WTI surging 18% over the last three days and were up by two and a half percent now we traded a $114 Brentford at a 119 gold at 1909 136 the triad So those are the markets Okay for more on what we're seeing in those markets then let's bring in Bloomberg's chief correspondent for rates a Garfield Reynolds Garfield How much of a surprise was this then The commentary the hawkish push by Jay Powell who seems kind of taking the lead on this more hawkish stance and how has that been reflected in the yield curve Well he definitely is quite deliberately taking the lead I think a lot of what helped to make the sell off in response to these comments So swift was that these were prepared remarks to a set of business leaders It wasn't anything off the car it wasn't even a response to questions It was okay this is Jay pal laying out his stall and saying I'm willing to go 50 basis points at least once Maybe even a couple of times if that's what is needed Now if that's what is needed well we'll see that that works out But for the moment that led in bond investors to radically change their perceptions of what he could do what the worst case scenario would be so to speak for bonds So that was the surprise that he was willing to do that and he was willing to do that so soon after a post fed meeting where his commentary was relatively more conciliatory Okay so much more aggressive tone than from Powell to think about oil surging again though This morning what is the expectation around crude prices Do they stay higher Garfield Good morning Well it's difficult to see them come down on a sustained basis as long as we've got fighting in Ukraine as long as we've got Russia beings here to there's a pariah state in response to that And as long as we've got talk that part of that response is going to be the European Union considering of all things an oil embargo is fib and it comes with still some distance away from it but I think investors are being forced to go well a lot of people didn't believe that Russia would actually invade Ukraine but Russia did because it had a political aim that it saw was worth taking that step So if the European Union decides it has a political and perhaps also economic justification for taking on a step that would cause a lot of pain for the European economy this oil embargo well then that could happen if that happens you would think that crew would probably go even considerably higher than it already has Okay Garfield Reynolds on J Powell doubling down on that hawkish commentary and of course the outlook as well for oil prices as we weigh up the implications of that walk and any potential sanctions from the EU for real-time markets a commentary and analysis checkout markets live That is ML IV on your Bloomberg terminal And now let's get to our top stories but it makes Hannah Georgia here hi Hannah Good morning Carolyn thank.

Europe Russia Bloomberg radio Caroline Hepburn Tom McKenzie Ukraine London U.S. Garfield Reynolds Garfield Jay Powell Jay pal Powell Goldman Sachs Biden Moscow
"garfield reynolds" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

02:55 min | 9 months ago

"garfield reynolds" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"John Tucker And I'm Karen Moscow and we're just about four hours away from the open of U.S. trading Let's get you up to date on the news you need to know what this shower U.S. futures are little change this morning to start the week The S&P 500 is down 1.9% so far this year and that's the worst start since 2016 The tech heavy NASDAQ 100 is down four and a half percent It all comes as traders anticipate higher interest rates in Goldman Sachs is ramping up its forecast on that front Bloomberg's ready to young joins us now with more Karen Goldman Sachs expects the fed to raise interest rates four times this year and begin the balance sheet runoff process in July That's moved up from a previous forecast of December It's all because of a stronger labor market and hawkish signs from the Central Bank's latest meeting Goldman says the fed is set to normalize policy faster than we've ever seen before I'm ready to young Bloomberg daybreak All right thanks for the treasury yields they continue to climb with a ten year benchmark moving closer to 2% Garfield Reynolds covers rates for Bloomberg news 2% can come in this quarter If it does pass through that 2% it could go significantly higher before anybody calls the hulk because there's a little bit too much complacency out there about just how far Bloomberg's Garfield Reynolds says this week's reports on inflation CPI on Wednesday PPI on Thursday will be key for the bond market And geopolitical politics is also in focus this morning John ahead of meetings between the U.S. and Russia Bloomberg news has learned The White House and U.S. allies may impose export restrictions on Moscow If Vladimir Putin sees this more of Ukraine they get the latest from Bloomberg's Maria taddeo Some of the lines have gotten here It's pretty much the same kind of mood music that we've heard for weeks now saying the United States There's two ways here One in which Russia deescalates and we go for a diplomatic solution if there's no diplomatic solution to the Ukraine tension then we could see media and huge massive repercussions on the Russian economy And of course Russia is still playing in this very top saying we're not going into talks to concede And Bloomberg's Maria tadeo says talks are ongoing in Geneva they'll be followed by NATO meetings in Brussels later this week S&P futures that all change this morning So are down futures NASDAQ futures down 14 now so they've been moving around a bit this morning The dash in Germany's down about a tenth of up percent Ten year treasury down four 30 seconds yet 1.77% yield on the two year .86% and Bitcoin this morning at $41,900 Straight ahead your latest local headlines plus a check of sports and this is Bloomberg Hey thanks Karen 5 33 on Wall Street Hamilton spring and Michael barnow with Maura on what else is going on in New York and around the world John thank.

Bloomberg U.S. Karen Goldman Sachs Goldman John Tucker Garfield Reynolds Moscow fed Maria taddeo Russia Bloomberg news Central Bank treasury Ukraine
"garfield reynolds" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

06:18 min | 9 months ago

"garfield reynolds" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"About the four day bank holiday in June for the queen's 70 years on the throne but omic von and what could be a 50% jump in energy bills in April according to EDF are not going to make particularly cheery months ahead for the UK all of this of course amidst a story in the bond markets that is fascinating right now U.S. ten year yields now edging towards 2% as they look of course the market's increasingly to at least three fed hikes and as we have seen the headlines Goldman Sachs now viewing four rate hikes and a roll off of the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve as soon as July 4 hikes through the year from Goldman Sachs is the call The higher yields what that means then for stocks as we look ahead to 2022 it's already been a rough start to the year Yeah absolutely So the ten year yield on Friday trade at 1.76% no cash treasuries trading this morning but futures are pointing to higher yield German yields also threatening to break that 0% line after hitting the high since 2090 So that's the big story we're watching and the data on Wednesday will be critical U.S. inflation expected to climb to 7% As for right now futures are fairly mixed with the S&P 500 Emily features were in the green just barely up a tenth of 1% NASDAQ features gaining three tenths of 1% The S&P remember had the worst start to a year since 2016 in that first week of January European stocks are actually withstood that spike in yields a little bit better As I say Japan close for holidays Chinese stocks this morning gaining two tenths on the CSI 300 the Hanks endgames 7 tenths of 1% the Bloomberg dollar spot index inches higher The Euro and yen retreat two tents but a difficult weekend for crypto Bitcoin approached $40,000 so that seems to be a testing point although the moment Bitcoin just above 42,000 Okay for more on the markets let's bring in Bloomberg chief correspondent for rate Garfield Reynolds Garfield Good morning good afternoon Thank you for joining us Let's start then with the question of U.S. treasuries not trading because Japan is closed not trading at the moment It will be trading later of course But 1.72 was the last print that we got in 1.76 let's just say there was a large print we got in the U.S. ten year in terms of markets factoring in these increased rate hikes Where does that leave the benchmark Do we get to 2% by the end of January Well 2% by the end of January might be a stretch unless we get another fueling inflation print later on this week as you mentioned that's one of the big risk factors But 2% by the end of March that would certainly be feasible I don't know we would also defend of course I want to face this January meeting The key thing here is one of the two issues that Goldman tax rate which is what happens with the balance sheet runoff If the fed just focuses on hiking short term rates you might actually see taking yields slow down You get a flat 8 yield curve because simply be a case of expecting that the fed is going to take the heat out of the economy But the balance sheet run off would drive up long-term yields especially because the pair has said it wants a steeper curve And that's why I think there's definitely a chance of that 1.8 coming At one point I can come as soon as today even 2% can come in this quarter It could run if it does bust through that 2% It could go significantly higher before anybody calls the hulk because there's a little bit too much complacency out there about just how far Yeah absolutely Meanwhile in terms of other things in markets why are China tech stocks gaining in Hong Kong this morning Well to some extent the big reason is because they felt so far before the forehand Their recovering from being about 50% down from their peak So there's a little bit of a buy the dip mentality going on On the more sensible front perhaps is that if you're looking in a market where there are a lot of concern that overly over stress valuations are going to come undone Well that's already happened in Hong Kong So the valuations are a lot more compelling there They've taken their medicine whereas places like the NASDAQ and so on are due to take theirs Also China is looking to ease policy because of what's going on there Where if the U.S. is going to tighten policy So those two factors would also argue that there is some potential that these bunch of dip buys were bravely going into those Hong Kong shares that have been supported so many times before This time around they might get a better award than the previous times Okay Garfield Reynolds as ever thank you And for real-time market commentary and analysis check out markets live That is ML IV on your Bloomberg terminal So those are your markets Let's think about our top stories this morning The education secretary here in the UK nadim zahawi says that Britain is moving beyond the pandemic We know with COVID always variants we keep a close eye on it I'm certainly confident that we are on a path towards transitioning this thing from pandemic to endemic but you've got to make a contagious class So there he was speaking yesterday to the BBC zahari also became the first cabinet minister to publicly back cutting the self isolation period for people who contract the virus to 5 days down from 7 He told Sky News any decision must be taken carefully I would actually be driven by the advice from the experts the scientists on whether we should move to 5 days from 7 days Otherwise what you don't want is obviously the wrong outcome by higher levels of infection So zahari suggested that if approved by the government scientific advisers reducing isolation times would ease staff shortages which have hit the UK economy in a major way Indeed in fact according to The Sunday Times staff shortages caused by COVID illness and mandatory isolation could result in a 35 billion pound loss in output over January and February That's assuming a 25%.

omic von U.S. Goldman Sachs Federal Reserve rate Garfield Reynolds Garfiel EDF Japan S Bitcoin Hong Kong UK Bloomberg Goldman
"garfield reynolds" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

05:31 min | 9 months ago

"garfield reynolds" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Have some really big stories to talk about the fed minutes seen as much more hawkish than expected yesterday That's meant to big gyrations in terms of bond markets and a tech solo which continues this morning Plus a cost of living crisis here in the UK is really starting to hit home Pressure to scrap the national insurance tax that comes in in April pressure to do something on energy prices politicians that is really under pressure to do something So the politics of those rising prices being felt here in the UK globally as well were seeing that with the geopolitics of Kazakhstan as well and just to emphasize your point on technology the NASDAQ falling the most since March and really bid market moves the U.S. ten year back above 1.7% as the markets now start to price in a hike as soon as March Yeah that is the overnight swaps market 80% bet on 25 basis points for March As for markets right now so stocks are falling in Japan China Hong Kong Australia as you mentioned the global tech sell off meant that the NASDAQ dropped 3.1% yesterday Futures also deeply in the red for the start of European trading U.S. stocks 50 futures are now down by 2.1% That is despite a couple of days in Europe where European investors have shrugged off the worries more focused on omicron perhaps not being as serious not leading to shutdowns in Europe that seems to be changing perhaps in tone this morning In terms of the S&P 500 that also slumped yesterday 1.9% at the close at the moment S&P 500 in many features down four tenths of 1% a check on the ten year yield trading at 1.73% so up by two basis points also of course the dollar and the yen bid Bloomberg dollar spot index stronger a tenth of 1% and the Japanese yen trades at one 1585 struggle to tensor 1% Okay now back to today's top stories the Federal Reserve has issued minutes of December's policy meeting and they signal interest rates will be going up later this year Bloomberg Vinny del giudice reports The minute suggests the robust economic recovery coupled with accelerating inflation could prompt the fed raised interest rates sooner Some on Wall Street see that happening as early as March The fed is already cutting back on purchases of government bonds purchases that it helped keep a lid on rates Any doubt Judy ice Bloomberg daybreak Europe Well for more on those 5 minutes and the market reaction let's bring in Bloomberg's chief correspondent for rates Garfield Reynolds Garfield good morning Thanks for being with us The FOMC minutes that came out last night do seem to have surprised with just how hawkish they were and how quickly the rate liftoff may happen after the taper I think there's a couple of things going on here One is that the markets have priced in some of the other con risks that have occurred since the third meeting which of course 15 minutes don't do Back when the fed met COVID case rate in the U.S. was about 200,000 a day on a 7 9 moving average It's now at about 1 million so that's a big jump And it's very unclear We are not going to have an economic effect or not But the more important thing is is just that the fitment of a very very strong reminder that the fed is extremely eager to remove policy support It's very worried about getting behind the curve on inflation So it's biased to tighten sooner rather than later And I think the real shock was actually the balance sheet typing potential And that is what put the cat amongst the pigeons across asset classes That's why just about everything is down from treasuries to Bitcoin because investors are suddenly having to cope with the world where there's a lot less Central Bank and government stimulus available When you touched on Bitcoin they're Garfield dropping at one point to about $42,500 Ether also being hit a number of these coins being squeezed what is going on within the crypto space Well I mean a lot of what's going on is it underscores in fact the way that these moves are about filling off some of the assets that got two very very high levels levels and a lot of people had doubts that these could be fundamentally sustainable over the long term So I think we're going to see a fresh test of 42 and then down towards 40 on Bitcoin lenses being very likely especially if we get the sort of data tomorrow in the jobs report out of the U.S. that could emphasize the idea that the fate is going to be raising rates and for Bitcoin and ether and other crypto in particular that raises the concern of competition from driving interest bearing assets Okay Gotham thank you so much for being with us Garfield Reynolds therefore our market comedy and analysis check out markets live MIV on your Bloomberg terminal Bitcoin actually is down one and a half percent right now Okay let's talk about the state of the pandemic because as the UK records another nearly a 195,000 COVID cases changes are being made to the testing system Those who don't have systems symptoms but who test positive on a lateral flow will no longer require APC up Boris Johnson says he reserving testing capacity for those who need it most due to the sheer size of the omicron wave but insists he's not going further than his plan B measures.

fed Bloomberg Vinny del giudice Europe U.S. Judy ice UK Garfield Reynolds Garfield Kazakhstan S Hong Kong FOMC Japan
"garfield reynolds" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

05:33 min | 1 year ago

"garfield reynolds" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"And go to Garfield Reynolds in Sydney's Garfield there Hi thank you for joining us I was just talking there about some of the factors that we are seeing in the early market action this morning in particular watching this move in the energy space brand above $85 a barrel that's kind of giving a little bit of a support as we start this new trading weekend the final trading week of October Yes it's definitely underscoring some of the optimism about demand coming out of the global economy that had wobbled a bit I think interestingly enough considering some of the local issues going on there is mostly again a return to the optimism that this time we will be able to get further out from COVID's shadow after a number of full starts on that front So that's really trying to optimism And they also just seem to be a general sort of classic end of the year optimistic build to things People are looking forward to 2022 after saying well 2020 was pretty horrible 2021 was not as good as we thought it would be but it hasn't turned out to be terrible So he's looking for a 2022 to be much brighter Garfield as you well know one of the debates the market has been having at a very robust level is this idea that inflation is going to be something lasting and not merely transitory We heard from the fed share J Powell last Friday He's intent on tapering next month The question of tightening short term interest rates that doesn't seem to be on the table At this point but the 5 year break even at a 20 year high I mean the market is clearly concerned about inflationary pressures building Juliet was just referencing this move the continued move higher in the energy complex Yes that's a big part of what's helped to drive up inflationary expectations because traditionally there's been such a strong read through from oil prices to broader consumer prices and that's part of what's going on But I also think that in fact a bit of what went on last week and as carried through on this week is that markets are welcoming the idea that the fed and other central banks will act they will start to reduce their stimulus But not going to go as rapidly as might have been feared because there's a very delicate balancing act going on If you raise rates rapidly that's not necessarily going to solve some of the underlying problems that are causing these to copy and energy prices And in other prices So we want less accommodation but we don't want two rapid tightening And again there's some optimism that the right sort of balance is going to be struck by policymakers like pal or light for example the reserve bank of Australia which held off for a while and then came in to bring its yield target back down by intervening in an unscheduled purchasing operation last week Yeah that's going to be an interesting one to watch next week too with their decision when you see finally the economy fully open in terms of international borders I wanted to ask you your thoughts as well about what we're seeing in the slowdown in China We had ever grown kind of kicking the can down the road on Friday but now you've got this virus outbreak that authorities seemed a little worried about and a rough to people lowering their full cost for growth Goldman Sachs has done it again for 2022 after already cutting it just less than a month ago It's a very good point and that sogginess in China's economy and now the concerns that are also growing about what might be going on with its COVID outbreak They all help to explain why Asian equities has allowed behind so much this year a year that opened with some very strong expectations about investors and analysts including myself Full disclosure I expected aged out before because I expected China to outperform economically because it was coming out strongly from COVID if you had a sort of first mover advantage And that hasn't happened for a range of reasons including your client famously the Chinese government willingness to pursue political ends even if that's at the short term expense of some market and even economic factors So they've got a very difficult balancing act going on there And that's having an impact a negative impact on a lot of economies in Asia and therefore markets in Asia Most definitely Garfield always a pleasure Thank you so much for being with us Garfield Reynolds is Bloomberg's M live Asia markets team leader joining us here on DBA Also in the week ahead Juliet we've got this bank of Japan meeting and one of the things that we're being told is the BOJ is expected to lower its growth forecast for this year Yeah absolutely unbelievable as Garfield says that you would have thought we would be at a stage in the cycle where there was more optimism than.

Garfield Reynolds COVID J Powell Garfield fed Sydney Juliet reserve bank of Australia China Chinese government Goldman Sachs Asia Bloomberg BOJ Japan
"garfield reynolds" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

06:45 min | 1 year ago

"garfield reynolds" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Happy 2021. There are happy signs of it. Caroline here not least, of course, the release of the Oxford Maxie. Yeah, absolutely optimism about the vaccine, but also some anxiety about the rapid spread of the crone of ours across Europe. On the possibility of tougher lockdowns. I mean, here in Britain, 50,000 more than 50,000 daily cases now of the virus schools in chaos. It's really a difficult picture for 2021, of course, Brexit passed during the holiday season. We all now in the post Brexit phase on. How does that affect trade? Will will be talking during the program to Richard Ballantine, his chief executive, the British Sports Association to get a sense of how the whole system is working. Indeed, right, First of all, they let me go to the markets because actually, Asian stocks are starting 2021 at record highs of the M S C. I Asia Pacific Index is currently up by 7/10 of 1% 10 Cent and 10 Cent and Samsung Electronics have jumped this morning. This suicide 300 at a 5.5 year high South Korean stocks also posting a big game. The customers up by 2.4%. The outline is Japan. They were the Nikki to 25 is down by 7/10 of 1%, the government they're considering declaring a state of emergency. As for Europe, I was on their last week watching the kind of end of play. It was a pretty quiet trading week last week for the 5100 posted its worse annual drop since the global financial crisis and the U. S stock. 600 also fell. 4% loss for 2020. So that is where we will start when it comes to European trading. The future's right now in the U. S stocks. 50 are flat at the moment. As for elsewhere in the markets, the other interesting thing that you want past 6.5 For the first time in a couple of years, the dollar drops against all of its G 10 peers sit down a quarter of 1% on the Bloomberg Dollars spot Index. We have an OPEC class meeting allow prices jumped 2.2% on Don't like food futures. Old or sick, comic 1.2% on Let's not forget the crypto rally, which is really incredible. Is it a hedge against this week? A dollar or just a risky bubble? The Bitcoin Donna valued remembered $32,975 What we did see it above $34,000 Roger those. The markets There is proponents of it all, Of course, just before Christmas on this program, predicting even further gains. We'll see how that all goes through. But anyway, let's cross over now to Sydney, where Garfield Reynolds of the Markets live. Team joins us stuff A very good morning and happy New Year to you, of course, as well, well. Now, a lot of question marks about whether we're hitting a spring after the long, Covad winter on the M live question of the day. Which asset will perform the best in 2021. What do you think? Well, I think it's pretty clear everybody spit to start a little backwards. Is that the dollar will with the asset that performs the worst. It's very much under pressure today, just seeing fresh ways off seven against the Chinese Offshore Yuan, which really is murdering his Today on it's looking very much as the Central banks and other electrical sticky currency investors have decided to shift their allocations further away from the U. S. Dollar. So if we take that as the background and you want to look at which currencies which assets are going to do well in that sort of a scenario, so that's saying to me emerging market currencies and the particular emerging market equities. Some of the ones in Asia costly has taken off like gangbusters. This'll morning and I think that might spread to some of those stock market haven't done quite so bar recently, such as Malaysia, Indonesia, some of the European and Latin American emerging market, So I think that's a pretty good place to start looking. You mentioned crypto currencies, of course. They even dead and putting in a bid for the ones that are gonna be the biggest performance for the whole year. And that could be the case. The question is what happens when there is a correction and some of those massive gains starts a pair and will Investors should piled in with such abandoned recently been pull out and accelerate. We've seen crypto go up and down by a lot before there's plenty of chance that it would drop back down to 15,000 again as fast as you can blame. Well, as you say, crypt, and they will be in error. Volatilities part of the game miracles on Garfield. Thanks so much for being with us. Garfield Reynolds there on real time market country analysis. You check out markets like by typing M l I V on your terminal. Right, Let's go to our top stories now and begin with today's roll out of the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine. The health secretary is called it a pivotal moment in the U. K s fight against coronavirus. Save a half a million doses will be available with vulnerable groups identified is a priority for immunization. But Professor Robin shattered from the Imperial College. London says that we shouldn't stop what we're doing now. It's really important to be making sure that we locked down and increase efforts and social distancing away the tools. We have to hand rather than hoping the vaccine is going to be the only route of getting in number infections down. Now the business governor's order. 200 million days is off the injection, which, unlike the Fizer, by on tech job can be stored in normal refrigeration temperatures on all this comes with Boris Johnson says. England schools could stay closed for longer than currently plan is the country faces surging virus cases. Bloomberg's Max Ramsey has the details. Some of England's primary schools will reopen today, but not those in local authorities with high levels of coronavirus, including across London. Secondary schools also remain shut until next week, except for vulnerable kids and the Children of key workers. But the system has been plagued by confusion, with the local authorities and teaching unions raising doubts about re opening. Labor leader kids, Dharma said the country should immediately return to a full lockdown and unions have called for employers to offer parents Pete time off to cope with child care. That's his virus cases across the country have surpassed 50,000 per day. Putting the government under pressure to intensify action in London. Max Ramsey Bloomberg Daybreak Europe. In other news UK financial firms have one a lifeline from Italy, where they six months post Brexit period in which they can continue to do business even as.

Garfield Reynolds Europe Bloomberg London England Max Ramsey Oxford Maxie Brexit Caroline Richard Ballantine Britain OPEC Covad Japan Samsung Electronics Asia Pacific Index Asia
"garfield reynolds" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

05:48 min | 2 years ago

"garfield reynolds" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"This is Bloomberg Daybreak here for this Wednesday, August 26th month coming up this hour. Asian stocks influx After more record highs in the US White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow says economic health is on the way back. Germany extends its job support program to the end of 2021 to help the recovery of Europe's biggest economy. Britain's highest paid footballer Harry McGuire, is found guilty of assaulting Greek police offices and Melania Trump calls for racial harmony at the Republican National Convention. I'm beyond Garen's with World news. On another U turn, Boris Johnson decides face masks will be compulsory in secondary schools in lock down areas. That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg. Daybreak Europe on the digital radio London Bloomberg 11 3 own New York But 99 1, Washington, DC Greenberg, 1061, Boston. Bloomberg 9, 60, San Francisco. Serious except China 1 19. And around the world on radio dot com and fired the Bloomberg business APP. And a very good morning from London. I'm Roger hearing and you're listening to daybreak. Europe live on London, maybe digital radio, where we check the markets every 15 minutes during the trading day here on Bloomberg Radio on right now, China the well the Asian markets journey particular Chinese markets seemed to be on a bit of a downbeat. That's despite a rally in global stocks that still within a whisker of ferries all time high as investors. Khun looked about the pace ofthe recent gains right now. Chinese stocks I said, leading the declines in Asia the looking to Japan First, the topics is down. 1/10 of 1% Nikkei Down also attend the 1% of the Hang saying down almost 2/10 of 1% C s. I 300 down. 1.1% Shanghai comp the same So definitely a push there from China in terms of red on the screen. But looking to the European opening stocks, 50 futures are stronger. 10th of 1%. German futures also US features a bit more variable than the 500 absolutely flat right now, the Dow down by 1/10 of 1%, but the NASDAQ Not by 1/10 of 1% a bit of a mixed picture. They're looking into the bond space. US tenure Benchmark Treasuries up to basis points this morning 71 basis point handle the dollar barely moved. Actually this morning on the Bloomberg dollars spot Index on cable right now, the pound 10 for 1% Weaker 1.3137 is where we find that A lot of focus, of course on the oil situation at the moment, with all trading their highest in five months is Hurricane Laura Bears down on the U. S Gulf Coast right now? 43.38 does the barrel that struck 1/10 of 1% Brent up almost 4/10 of 1% $46.3 a barrel. It's a quick look at what's happening on the markets this morning. Now let's go. Across the Sydney where Garfield Reynolds of the Markets live. Team joins us Very good morning to you Go feel I was saying that the Asian equities in the rate, shrugging off what had been quite a positive lead from Wall Street, so One of the concerns, driving that current downturn in sentiment. Well, it just seems to be paying a little bit less attention to what's going on in the US these days, which is quite a change from most of the trump era. As it were, however, This has been a series of sort of idiosyncratic moves going on both Japan and Korea to have bean driven somewhat by, UH, virus concerns career that there might be social distancing brought in. Warnings in Japan of Ah, very strong second wave allied some uncertainty about Shinzo Abe future and then mark it like Australia has been down both because of some concerns about earnings and also Some concerns about longer locked down in Victoria and what might be going on. There might also be that the market's been distracted by this record. Australian bond Sale Australia Raise $21 billion today in a single sale. That's more than it raised per quarter over the decade ended last year, so all of those things are weighing on Asian stocks. And it seems as though investors are not willing to take it with some of Ah Exuberance on Wall Street at face value. Given that we have But Jackson Hole coming up, Dang could cause some turmoil and also the U. S elections looming larger on everybody screamed. Yeah, that's that's clearly very much in favour. Of course with the Republican National Convention this week. Thanks very much. Garfield Garfield Reynolds there now for real time market commentary and analysis. You check out markets live. You type M l I V on your terminal. Right, Let's get to our top stories. Now we begin here in Britain, where Boris Johnson's not making masks mandatory for schools in England in areas with high levels off the virus on leaving it up to you schools discretion in other areas. Bloomberg's Max Ramsey has the details on the latest government. U turn. Downing Street had insisted that students would be safe without masks. But late last night, the government reversed course and joined Scotland in recommending Mass for people's. The U turn came after pressure from head teachers, unions and the Labour Party. It's faced a backlash from conservative MPs. It adds to the growing list now of reversals for the government after they changed course on exam results Just last week in London, Max Ramsey, Bloomberg, Daybreak Europe and all this comes off the head of England's exam regulator off call Sally Kolia resigned yesterday over the exam results fiasco. Scientists from the University of Cambridge have one funding from the government to start trials for DNA based vaccine the names to protect against multiple Corona viruses..

Bloomberg US Europe Garfield Garfield Reynolds London Bloomberg Boris Johnson Bloomberg Radio China Republican National Convention Japan government Britain Melania Trump London Larry Kudlow Garen White House economic adviser Germany Harry McGuire
"garfield reynolds" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

03:11 min | 2 years ago

"garfield reynolds" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Yes, we are. And we're also continued continued to see. Ah little bit of nervousness about your house. How sustainable the values Now that we're Turning back where we came from. It's been a great story to retrace our steps from the much meltdown. But now that we're back close to a record high for the S and P 500 As you say, in a way I pack has its gave, uh, just looking for use or something of the something else that would actually Drive off to the mix to the next level. And it's interesting that just as well as the program was getting going with thing, a little bit of a retracement in the rally for the decay when it opened, and many have ticked down, Treasuries have picked up So it's a little bit of a cautious day at the moment in Asia. And cautious as well. In terms of the fact that the rally isn't really broadly based. We've only got around 43%. I believe of stocks here in Asia up year to date, Let's talk about what we're saying, though, in the bond market because you did mention their yields, and your question of the day for them alive. Today is whether or not we see them go backto 1% or it drifts back. Tio 10.5 of 1%. What's kind of the thinking of What you're hearing from from people that ride into the block. Well, there's a lot of countervailing pressures on the one hand what the fate has been doing in pumping money into the economy and also the High levels of spending on the physical side of the promised is dispensable. Those aerial reflationary or the kind of driver should send yields higher as activity. Recovers. There's been signals that the faith might be quite willing to see inflation run hard. On the other hand. It is not a great deal of appetite. You wouldn't think for the Fed to yield get significantly out of control. We had yields go very low A couple of weeks ago, they got down towards where 0.5 with style and looked like a possibility. It doesn't seem like that's not really going to happen in which we see Ah, significant breakdown. In the economy fit speakers. We're talking about concerns about the bars. You would need to sort of our take a significant turn. It was to get that by the same token, we tend to think that 1% is not gonna happen for quite some time precisely because they paid And others are not going to be confident that that's the sort of thing that the markets in general the economy in general can cope with, so we might be stuck in a range asleep until sometime next year. You get to touch on the flagging the potential for negative rights as well. That was quite an interesting market move yesterday. But Garfield always great to get your insights and you can raid the team's insights that ML I've go that is Asia and live team leader. Garfield Reynolds on the line from Sydney, discussing all the latest moves in market action here in Asia, as he said,.

Asia Garfield Reynolds Treasuries Fed team leader Sydney
"garfield reynolds" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

07:44 min | 2 years ago

"garfield reynolds" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"S. stock futures triggered trading limits overnight after declines reached five percent it's got us in the dark what losses could look like at the open Garfield Reynolds is a market strategist for Bloomberg volatility is back and even if implied volatility starts to believe down a bit the sticker shock is there the aftershocks of that's going to make for more cautious trading CME rules don't allow stock futures to fall more than five percent from the previous close that's keeping U. S. equity contracts quiet for the moment and Europe were saying the stock six hundred down five point nine eight percent of the M. S. C. I. Asia Pacific index is lower by four percent Goldman Sachs expects a recovery in the second half but it's anyone's guess when we see a bottom Kathy Matsui is the firm's chief equity strategist in Japan we think that eventually there will be a bottoming out in earnings revision omentum and the market can trade higher towards the second half of this year but everything is so fluid at present I don't think anybody has a real crystal ball that actor enough to predict when the situation is going to pick out globally of course right now there's a great deal of uncertainty before trying to hide in safe places in the same places include the Japanese yen which is strengthening sharply this morning right now dollar yen trading at one oh two point three five the one catalyst for today's turmoil comes from the oil patch for an all out price war is breaking out between Saudi Arabia and Russia a collapse of the OPEC plus alliance has the Saudi king to making the deepest price cuts and at least twenty years Katie bays is co founder of sandhill strategy OPEC compliance is at war with itself they're going to war with U. S. shale the floor is kind of up for grabs because what the market is trying to figure out now is how lower crude prices have to fall to discourage U. S. producers from pumping more oil so the question will really be it's twenty dollars low enough well right now West Texas intermediate crude at thirty two dollars eighty eight cents a barrel that's down twenty point four percent Brent is lower by nineteen point three percent trading at thirty six dollars forty nine cents a barrel a sharp drop in crude has ramifications for emerging markets around the world your beverages a senior energy analyst at Sanford Bernstein the ripple effects from this are going to be enormous thank you bye emerging market economies that are highly leveraged commodities Indonesian Malaysia Russia Brazil and then you go into countries like Iran and Venezuela with central often explores plus the current general prices on the financial ripples that will stem from this are going to be enormous I think so well I think the focus today is rightly on energy I think this is going to broaden our into something far more significant for more this commodity currencies are seeing massive weakness from Australia to Norway and Mexico right now the peso is weaker by more than five and a half percent the price war will also cause a major shock for U. S. shale producers we get details from Bloomberg energy reporter Stephen steps in ski if prices stay in this thirty dollar level for a number of weeks you could start to see actual bankruptcies in U. S. shale producers are number of small companies that their breakeven costs are in about the forty five dollar level and if you see this going on longer they might either decide to just filed for bankruptcy or they could be soaked up as part of an MNA deal by a bigger player or merge with other folks so this will have a seismic effects going forward if the prices don't firm up and the next few days and weeks energy companies are leading declines in Europe while US producers are plummeting in the premarket a flight to safety as bond yields plummeting for the first time ever the entire U. S. yield curve is trading below one percent with markets now expecting the fed to cut rates to zero in the coming months mark Cranfield is a global macro strategist for Bloomberg it looks as though the bond market is talking itself into recession here putting yields with it on a because there is a risk that can seem to stop talking themselves into recession if they continue to see financial markets slumping the way that we have people could get right defensively could become self fulfilling right now the yield on ten year treasuries is trading at point four seven percent the yield on the thirty year point eight seven percent it is panic gripped financial markets the trump administration is drafting measures to blunt the economic fallout from the corona virus here with details as Bloomberg's Tom Busby the planned measures from the White House included temporary expansion of paid sick leave that's according to sources who tell us help for companies facing disruption from the outbreak is also being considered a small group of White House and treasury officials worked on the proposal over the weekend the package is still being debated and has not yet been presented to president trump the move comes as pressure grows on the administration to take more decisive action in response to the virus I'm Tom Busby Bloomberg daybreak hi Tom thank you again S. and P. futures down four point nine percent right now down one hundred forty five points Dow futures down one thousand two hundred fifty five straight ahead the latest world and national news and this is Bloomberg I think six or seven on Wall Street John Tucker is here with more on what's going on around the world good morning John good morning global fertility is for the corona virus reached thirty eight hundred as infections have spread to about half of the world's countries Columbia University Hofstra University at Scarsdale New York one of the most a fluent towns in America suspended classes Columbia says it will suspend classes today and Tuesday and hold them remotely for the rest of the week after person affiliated with the school was exposed to the disease new Yorkers should avoid the subway at rush hour by cycling or walking to work or stay at home and telecommute as mayor bill de Blasio outlined plans to fight the corona virus New York City as thirteen confirmed cases passengers the grand princess cruise ship where more than twenty passengers and crew on board are confirmed to be infected with covert nineteen will be sent to military bases for the mandatory quarantine details of this report from Bloomberg at Baxter the grand princess is scheduled to dock in Oakland the passengers are supposed to get off leaving the crew about one thousand to take the ship itself elsewhere the capitals given initial information to the thirty five hundred on board stuff require medical care following health screenings done we still are California residents welcome to a friendly operations our selection of California for testing and evaluation plans at last report is still underway and there's some consternation that local officials haven't been consulted closely enough there were twenty people who tested positive for the virus in the governor says the offloading could take two to three days in San Francisco I'm at Baxter Bloomberg daybreak Dr Anthony Fauci head of the institute of allergy and infectious diseases says if you're elderly or infirm there a couple of things you simply should not do if you're a person with an underlying condition and you are particularly an elderly person with all my condition you need to think twice about getting on a plane on a raw on a long trip and not only think twice just don't get on a cruise ship he was on NBC's meet the press that could be heard Sundays on Bloomberg radio senator Ted Cruz will self quarantine in his Texas home after contacted a recent political conference with a person who later tested positive for corona virus at another news this morning Bernie Sanders is making an all out push in Michigan ahead of that state's primary on Tuesday the Vermont senator and democratic presidential hopeful spoke to a crowd of more than ten thousand at the university of Michigan in Ann Arbor Sunday night Tuesday it is a very very important day in Michigan is the most important state coming up on Tuesday California senator Kamala Harris adores Joe Biden on Sunday joining several former twenty twenty democratic presidential hopefuls who already backed the former vice president global news twenty four hours a day on the air handgun QuickTake by Bloomberg tower by more than twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts in more than one hundred twenty countries I'm John Tucker this is Bloomberg thank them all right.

Garfield Reynolds
Garfield Reynolds, Fed And Barclays discussed on Biz 1190 Overnight featuring Bloomberg Radio

Biz 1190 Overnight featuring Bloomberg Radio

01:49 min | 3 years ago

Garfield Reynolds, Fed And Barclays discussed on Biz 1190 Overnight featuring Bloomberg Radio

"Let's bring an mlive editor Garfield Reynolds. He leads our live markets coverage. It's cooked to see you this morning. Garfield we got to start with that CPI figure Barclays is saying that may inflation figure is soft as a feather. But of course, CPI is not necessarily the feds preferred measure for inflation. And in fact, you take a look at this chart pulled up on the GT function on your Bloomberg. If you have one, you can see that PC has actually been firming lately versus that CPI number. So I guess my question to you is, is this going to give the fed pause? When it comes to it's expected monetary policy path. Is it going to potentially give cover for a rate cut? Well trae says a very interesting question, because it's not at all clear that Powell does want cover for Kat. A lot of analysts and investors have been saying that in fact, if there is going to be a right cut, then that's going to play off of a further breakdown in the trade talks between the US and China. When you look at that shot that you showed just then now and I've seen quite a few nights out. Also about the CPI talking about the idea that the although the pre was week. There was nothing in it to really kill off house thesis, which has been out there, which is that the slowdown in inflation has been transitory and therefore, they can be patient. His patients has shaded towards the idea that rate cuts could be needed. But I think the fed in general has been considerably less eager to rush towards rate cuts than some of the trade is out there who are busy.

Garfield Reynolds FED Barclays Editor Trae Bloomberg United States Powell China
Crisis-hit Argentina hopes for improved IMF deal this month

Bloomberg Daybreak: Europe

00:42 sec | 4 years ago

Crisis-hit Argentina hopes for improved IMF deal this month

"Things off Argentinian finance minister, nNcholas twohove. And he says the IMF will probably decide in the coming days in his request for faster credit talks came as the Argentinian central Bank warned of a deepening recession amid a collapse in the Pessoa their currency. Bloomberg's Patrick Glaspie has the latest leaders from Argentina in Washington on Tuesday with Christine Lagarde to help. Restore investor confidence in the South American nation nNcholas to hoping they called it. A very good meeting though, we declined to provide details such as how much money of the fifty billion dollar credit line. Argentina is requesting to be expedited from the IMF Lagarde said she hopes quickly conclusions. So she can present a revised agreement to the IMF board for

Garfield Reynolds Hong Kong Indonesia Argentina IMF Bloomberg South Korea United States Asia Barratt Developments Christine Lagarde Barkley Governor Mark Carney Turkey Barklay Group Taiwan
Nafta Talks Pick Up as Decision Time Nears for US, Canada

Bloomberg Daybreak: Europe

00:52 sec | 4 years ago

Nafta Talks Pick Up as Decision Time Nears for US, Canada

"Now the fates over deal to update the NAFTA agreement between the US and Canada could hinge on the same issue that almost killed the country's. First trade pact degeneration ago Bloomberg's Charlie Pellett has the details on that Trump administration, wants, to scrap those panels Canada restarted talks in Washington this week by trying to, preserve the, so-called chapter nineteen anti-dumping panels three Canadian, officials, familiar, with the talks say Canada restarted talks in Washington this week by trying to preserve the so-called chapter nineteen anti dumping panels in the. North American Free trade agreement they candidate cited its ongoing disagreement with the US over allegations at dumps lumber into America as a reason. To keep the panels dispute Panels are one. Of Canada's biggest sticking points left in talks to modernize the twenty four year old

Bloomberg President Trump United States Garfield Reynolds World Trade Organization Charlie Pellett Bloomberg President Lula Da Silva Canada Donald Trump Jeff Sessions CEO Brazil China Editor In Chief PBC China America Credit Suisse