35 Burst results for "Forecaster"
U.S. Employers Added 266,000 Jobs in April as Hiring Slowed
"Today's jobs report showed that U. S employers added far fewer jobs in April than forecasters had expected.
Astronauts Flying Reused SpaceX Rocket, Capsule for 1st Time
"It's a go for a Thursday launch for the next space station crew together, NASA and Space x eight. They're ready to go with Thursday's predawn launch of a crew dragon capsule. It's the first time a crew dragon will be reused for a flight to the International space station. This same ship, dubbed Endeavor was used as the test vehicle for the first crew Dragon flight. Two Americans and astronauts from Europe and Japan will be onboard. Forecasters say Thursday's weather at Cape Canaveral is 80%
2021 Hurricane season: 17 named storms predicted this year
"Forecasters say hurricane season which starts June 1st this year is likely to be busier than usual. NPR's Greg Allen reports. Researchers at Colorado State University are projecting 17 named storms and eight hurricanes. The seasonal outlook, released by Colorado State University says there may be four major hurricanes with the nearly 70% chance One of them will make landfall in the U. S. Researchers say a major factor they don't expect an El Nino this year. That's a climate pattern in the Pacific that typically makes it harder for hurricanes to form in the Atlantic. Half a world away and in the Atlantic water temperatures are expected to be warmer than usual in the areas were hurricanes typically form If that forecast holds up, it would be the sixth year running with above average hurricane activity last year broke all records with 30 named storms and six
Why There Is A Change Coming To Your Local Weather Forecast
"There is a change coming to your local weather forecast next month. The data that it's based on will be updated that will make the warmer climate literally. The new normal here's npr's jennifer. Ludden weather forecasters work off a thirty year average and it gets updated every decade right now. What's normal for temperature and precipitation is based on nineteen eighty one to two thousand ten. That's why we've all gotten used to this. Well temperatures for your friday. We'll be running about ten degrees than normal seven degrees above average yesterday. Look into tomorrow above. Normal temperatures will the past decade. Was one of the hottest on record mike. Pilecki of the national oceanic and atmospheric administration says that will show up in the new averages called climate normals. They'll drop the eighties and wrap in the twenty tens. It was a very substantial upward trend in temperatures especially along the west coast of south and along the east coast. He says there were exceptions. Oh you can go to fargo north dakota. That would be a place where it's actually cooled a little bit if that's your interest especially in the springtime but the fastest warming places. We'll see a real bump up in their averages. Amber sellin is chief. Meteorologist at abc fifteen phoenix. Where she says last summer was incredibly hot. We set a record of fifty three days at one hundred. Ten degrees or hotter. The previous record was thirty three days so it wasn't even close what's more she says. In the entire past decade phoenix did not said a single record for low temperature now oddly after the update in may some really hot days or nights could become officially cooler than the new normal plans to take more time to explain all this. We're going to have to remind people especially this year. Hey if we're at one fifteen. That is five degrees above the average but remember this average has changed. This average is not what it used to
U.S. Economy Added 916,000 Jobs in March as Vaccinations Spur Return to Normal
"Nine hundred sixteen thousand jobs in march. The biggest gain in seven months busy restaurants reopened schools and warmer weather for construction crews all contributed to the surge in hiring job growth has accelerated in each of the last three months. Unemployment dropped a six percent in march men. Hundreds of thousands of people joined the workforce the. Us still needs many more months of strong job growth to regain all the jobs that were lost. During the pandemic payrolls are still down by about eight point. Four million workers with uptick in new corona virus cases in recent weeks forecasters say future job gains depend on the nation's ability to contain the pandemic scott horsely.
Operationalizing AI at Dataiku with Conor Jensen
"All right everyone. I am here with connor. Jensen connor is director of data science at data echo and he recently moderated a panel at khan focused on a in operational association connor. Welcome to the tamoil podcast. Thank you sam. Super excited to be here. Hey so we are going to spend some time. Recapping your conversation at twelve con- but before we do that. I love you. Share a little bit about your background and your role at data echo. Cher will turn into too long. Though it's always the short version seems waiting sanitize. But i had a roundabout wait coming to. Today's science dropped out of college. When i was young ended up after working random jobs for a while. ended up during the military and was weather forecaster so i spent the tournament. Listening as a enlisted weather. Forecaster military kalat eating out and going back to study math. So did math Africa on the military aid while working at starbucks again right so still nothing to do with wesley. Found my way In the insurance industry and thought i was going to be an actuary that lasted for about five seconds. Realize that was not for me. And then there's some lucky happenstance fell into building data science teams so then really. The last decade mostly has been spent Spent about seven years in the entrance. Fakes in a couple of big companies helping to build out designs. Try to new and different things in insurance which is fun easier said than done though so it was a good gentle of figuring that out
At Least Four Dead After Nashville Flooding; Crews Rescue More than 150 People
"Crews are busy in Nashville. NPR's Giles Snyder reports. Another round of severe weather in the South has sparked dangerous flash flooding. In Middle Tennessee. Water poured into homes and businesses and Nashville overnight. Cars and roads were submerged in the Nashville Fire Department says crews have been responding all over Davidson County conducting water rescues. The National Weather Service in Nashville, says there were reports of people clinging to trees and forecasters warned of a life threatening situation with rainfall totaling as much as 7 to 10 inches. Weather Service issued a flash flood emergency overnight. This latest bout was severe weather comes after last week's tornado outbreak in the south about eight or bleed to have touched down in Alabama and to end Georgia, leaving at least five people dead.
Southeast US Braces for Severe Storm This Weekend
"The Southeast is bracing for more severe weather this weekend. Forecasters say A storm front will bring heavy downpours hail, frequent lightning and damaging wind gusts from central Kentucky down in northern Louisiana, Mississippi. And Alabama. I'm Dean, you
Key takeaways from Biden's first White House news conference
"His first press conference since taking office earlier this week. Deputy babies Clayton Nevel says the commander in chief was pressed on issues ranging from violence in the U. S to Cove into a recent influx of illegal border crossings. It's the longest, the president has waited for an official meeting with the media and about four decades It wasn't your typical press briefing, either. Reporters were massed in their chairs were spread out. The briefing lasted just over an hour, and President Biden spoken a variety of topics. The first being the cove it pandemic. He touted the progress of vaccinating Americans and how his administration shattered its goal of 100 million shots in the 1st 100 days of his presidency. He announced another ambition, and that is We will buy my 100 Day in office have administered 200 million shots. The president praised his American rescue plan for providing needed relief to the American people since it was passed. Majority. Majority of economic forecasters. Have significantly increased their projections. The economic growth is going to take place this year. We're now projecting it will Exceed 6% 6% growth in GDP. President Biden made clear that he's open to eliminating the Senate filibuster, which requires 60 votes to pass legislation in the Senate. He said the rules being abused in that he's open to changes, but he wasn't specific. President also called legislative efforts to limit voting rights UN American But the issue that brought most of the questions was that of a recent influx of migrant Children at the southern border. He doubled down on his administration stands too close the border to families in single adults, but not two Children. The idea that I'm going to say Which I would never do. A lot of company child ends up with the border. We're just gonna let him starve to death and stay in the other side. No previous administrations that either except Trump I couldn't do it. The president addressed the need for more facilities, toehold migrant Children and promised media members will eventually have access to those facilities. In the wake of recent
Catastrophic damage after tornado strikes overnight in Georgia
"Amy held NPR news Dangerous and deadly storms it spawned. Several tornadoes are tearing through the south for a second day, causing widespread destruction. At least six people have died more from NPR's Debbie Elliott, cruise air, surveying damage and doing door to door searches in and around noon in Georgia after a tornado struck just after midnight, destroying homes and businesses, flipping cars and ripping apart of high school. In Alabama. Relief efforts are underway to help people left homeless after his money is eight tornadoes swept through the state Thursday. Homes were left crumpled trees and power lines are down and some roads washed out. Forecasters say one tornado traveled 100 miles through the state. Tornadoes were also confirmed in Mississippi and Tennessee. The severe
Weather service: 7 tornadoes hit Alabama, killing at least 5
"At least five people were killed when severe storms and suspected tornadoes ripped across Alabama more than a half dozen suspected twisters tore across Alabama from the west to the east here's winds from one storm carved a path of destruction for one hundred miles another because the carnage in Calhoun County where fatalities and injuries are reported one man who died in his mobile home being mourned by a neighbor in Shelby County near Birmingham it's bad back here and we need to say prayers for the people who live in this community Pelham city spokeswoman Ainsley Allison says heavy damage was sustained in a neighborhood off highway thirty one we've got trees and power lines down shelters have opened around the Birmingham area forecasters had warned violent storms could bash the Deep South I'm Jackie Quinn
US weather model gets major tech upgrade to better forecast extreme events
"The National Weather Service is its turbocharged. It's forecast technology. Better predict extreme weather events. The upgrade was put into effect Monday. It's been tested for two years. They say it's improving forecasts of heavy rain or snow fall by 15% 5 days out and better pinpoints hurricane and tropical storm formation as much as a week earlier. Forecasters also say this new model does not predict more rain or snow than actually falls, something that previous forecasting modeling had a
Survey: Business economists favor increased federal spending
"A majority of business economists think the recovering economy is going to benefit from much more government spending. Despite concerns and financial markets that the $1.9 trillion covert relief measure Congress recently enacted could ignite inflation. That is the view that has emerged from a survey. Today from the National Association for Business Economy Economics from of 205 economic forecasters. The economists were pulled where the new relief measure was under consideration in Congress, but before it was signed into
"Significant tornadoes" still possible after storms pound South
"Of more tornadoes overnight and into Thursday across the deep South had forecasters advising residents toe take precautions after a wave of storms pounded the region throughout the day Wednesday, leaving a trail of destruction. Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected today for portions of eastern Georgia through the Carolinas into extreme Southeast Virginia. According to the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center, nearly all of South Carolina's under moderate risk of severe storms, the forecast as a number of the state school systems Having classes canceled students and teachers. Some of the meeting online more school systems are expected to call off in person classes.
Assumptions about hurricane season face winds of change
"11. The planet is warming and it's having a notable impact on whether rising water temperatures are fueling a stronger and more active tropical storm season, and that is prompting scientists can to consider starting the Atlantic hurricane season two weeks earlier. Well, let's learn more now with Alison Wing. She's an assistant professor for Florida State University's Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science. She joins us on Skype. Thanks for being with us. We appreciate it. Good afternoon. Thanks for having me first to set this up. Describe the changes that we have been witnessing in terms of these earlier name tropical storms. We're starting to see the stuff earlier and earlier, aren't we? Yes. So in the last six hurricane seasons, all six of those years we have had storms named storms form in May before the official start of the hurricane season on June 1st and so It is something that seems to be happening more and more more frequently recently what our weather researchers considering besides an earlier hurricane season to accommodate these changes. One thing that the National Hurricane Center has already started. For this year. They're going to be issuing their tropical weather outlooks actually starting on May 15 now, which are issued every six hours during the season, just to provide overall overview of what's happening with weather in the tropics. And that would be something to help. You know, people be more aware of what's going on in the tropics, and you know if there's risks of tropical storms or hurricanes forming, But pushing the start to the actual official start to the season earlier is something that you know, could improve public awareness of the risk even more on because when we have these these storms Before hurricane season officially starts. The public isn't always necessarily as aware of the risk they may not have, you know, gotten their supplies and prepared their their homes yet for it, And so it's really a consideration and in order to recognize that we do have storms that happened before June 1st and you know what can we do to make the public As prepared as possible. And is there a way to try to impart to the public? How the storm should be rated like how strong we should expect? Storm's coming our way. It seems like sometimes there's confusion about that. Well, I think one thing to keep in mind is that the wind speed that we used to category categorize storms is category 12 and so on and so forth. That's only one aspect of the type of damage we can can receive from tropical storms and hurricanes. And so I think more and more. Forecasters are emphasizing the full range of impacts from winds be damaged, but also coastal flooding from storm surge inland flooding from rainfall and as well as the potential for tornadoes actually to be embedded inside hurricanes. And so the National Weather Service has some some products that emphasized those and I think that you know we going to see communication of this full range of impacts more and more, and you shouldn't focus solely on the
Gasoline Demand Has Peaked, Global Forecaster Says
"Reports gasoline use which crater during the pandemic is unlikely to recover to pre pandemic levels. Increased demand in developing countries will be offset by consumers shifting to electric vehicles. Six of the eight people Robert
Dangerous storms could spawn tornadoes across southern U.S.
"Of the investigation are released. The southern region of the United States is expecting Severe storm conditions. Lead forecaster with the Storm Prediction. Center Rich Thompson said These storms could lead to tornadoes. Severe weather threat will continue through the overnight hours in Alabama, which will make the situation dangerous against a lot of people be asleep. It will not stop. It will continue Thursday morning and then Ramp up again during the day across parts of Georgia and the Carolinas. Now this is the storm system that just blew through here in a little over an hour this morning and didn't do that much damage because it just went through so quickly, but it's going to get all balled up in the South and the South. Southeast mostly in the south in the mid south, and they're talking about some really dangerous conditions. National Storm Prediction Service said. The areas impacted can expect very large hail and intense, damaging
Tornadoes and violent thunderstorms threaten millions in South
"The south today. NPR's Debbie Elliott reports. Multiple tornadoes have been confirmed, with scattered damage reported and weather conditions. Officials say it could worsen in some areas overnight. Forecasters say some three million people are at high risk from the severe weather outbreak. In a region that includes Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. The heavy thunderstorms producing large hail and tornadoes will remain a threat overnight. Schools and colleges, government offices and many businesses closed early ahead of the storms, Shelters and safe rooms have opened in Mississippi and Alabama, Mass. Covert vaccination clinics were also canceled in several locations. Alabama Governor Kay Ivey has declared
"forecaster" Discussed on KTRH
"Please. We're gonna get Theo windy again. She had a follow up question about something different, but hopefully by beginning on a different line. We won't have that She couldn't hear me problem anymore. You wanna get in on the open lines behind windy 713 to 1 to ktrh. Anybody wanna take me on with this weather, forecasting that it's not take it on? That's all we read you some Some weather forecasting sites that do modeling on temperatures, and none of them are as bad as bad sounding horrific sounding as our local weather forecasters tend to believe They are hedging their bed a little bit and then keeps saying, But you know this. This could change. I'd like to think. Forget the local weather forecasters. Everything. I think a mother nature is not going to push this cold thing down as far as they'd love it. Had come down. I don't think it's going to get as far into Texas is they think that's just my Hopefully, Mother nature in February. Gut instinct. It's just kind of way haven't had so much cold weather for a while. It's just gonna be hard for to keep pushing that further down. I'm not a weather forecaster. I'm not a meteorologist, but I do try to play one on the radio. Keep that in mind. We were talking earlier about so many really, And this is perfect for what I was talking windy about when she couldn't really hear me is that we're blessed with really good potting schools in this area. One in particular from our friends at the ground up that could be sold. It's sold in bags at retail locations all over the place and sold in bags. At their three bulk locations is my bohemian potting soil really good potting, So for just about anything you want to do and containers when we call for potting soil that is Eat free. Don't like peat moss in it, but, um.
"forecaster" Discussed on Newsradio 600 KOGO
"Forecasters predicting snow levels is Lois Alpine who? So we've got your storm watch. Weather and travel Update Coming up. Coco News time. 5 47. Free healthcare hundreds to more than $1000 per month and disability compensation and tens of thousands for college tuition. These are just some of the U. S. Department of Veterans Affairs. Benefits that may be available to veterans via is focused on customer service, like never before, choose via and see why Veterans trust in via reached an all time high. Claimed the benefits you've earned at choose dot via dot Gove. To celebrate State farm. Surprisingly great breaks. We gave the song surprisingly great limits. Here we go. It's so cheap. I gotta agree with that. Hello. Take an inch Your average job, aren't you, baby? Nobody died by Miller never made well, that seems like a good neighbor. State farm is there Fairfax County Public schools is hiring classroom monitors. These individuals will assist students in the classroom. Whenever a staff member continues to work. Virtually monitors will earn $15.42, sir. It's for our high school diploma or equivalent experience is required. Visit the F C. PS recruitment Web page to apply. Just go toe F c He s got 80 you and search recruitment. That's F C p s dot eating you and search recruitment. We hope you'll say yes to F. C. P s. Bank of Clark County. We believe in always making your life easier with our dedicated business banking app. You can manage your business finances any time anywhere from the comfort of your mobile device, Learn more at Bank of clark dot bank can download the business banking app today to simplify your life. Remember F d i. C Somewhere in Maryland, Dr. X unleashes his scratch off. Masterpiece Surprises. Cash part Don't know. Multiply them 50.
"forecaster" Discussed on WIBC 93.1FM
"Forecaster at the National Weather Service was it was Wednesday night. Most of Thursday and we were finally getting out. I think it was on Friday, and one of the drifts went through the roof. Had my father allowed, it could have easily slept it off the roof down down on the on the ground. Eventually, Bill Ludlow was a volunteer firefighter in Lawrence. My wife and I. We didn't live too far from our jobs at that time, and she said We ought to try to go. I said no, they said Then she tries to go out and get the newspaper that morning. She comes back and she couldn't even get the door open because the snow was so you know, heavy Earth is sold. Piled up and she comes back in and she said, We're not going anywhere. So for like the next two, maybe three days, we were locked in our duplex that we lived in began getting worse and worse than eventually very impossible and then begins all trying to get to the interstate to the interchange and This rock My pleasure on a Zoe got its nearby why the vehicles became bumper to bumper and impossible. And then we all had to walk in part of WBC's broadcast during the storm way did the morning and obviously I didn't have school closing tonight, and he's already working while you struggle out. Think that's what's gonna be on my gravestone. The boy's school closing Gary Todd was the morning host on WNBC. Ironically, I had taken delivery of a blazer four wheel drive from build asked us the day before and Bill. One of the last things, he said, is, you know unless there's a really bad snowstorm, and maybe the county comes.
"forecaster" Discussed on AM Joy
"If, you're. Poor. Luck all increase subsidies, lower, your premiums, the deductibles, and out of pocket expenses it's real. It's been looked at its positive. And I love your prescription drug costs in this country by sixty percent. I say that sounds great show. How are you gonNA. Do that we're going to allow Medicare to negotiate with the drug companies, how much they can charge for their prescription. Drugs. We're going to make sure you keep your protections for pre existing conditions. Rock Obama I fought too hard. For that and one. Or to protect your social security Medicare, not what he's doing. He says reelect me. Hey Chris as this week on my podcast wise is happening I'll be talking with Samantha power about the world and trump and the election I think people will draw the lesson and it's part of the larger question about whether America's recovery in standing will not be simply about who wins election and whether we like alliances again or whether we treat other leaders respectfully and stop cozying. Up to autocratic leaders, it will be about whether we can show our coppens whether we remind the world that, yes, we're not just a country more Nobel prizes in the sciences and medicines than any other country in the world. It shows when it matters for citizens matters the world at this week on wise is happening search for wise is happening wherever you're listening right now and subscribe..
"forecaster" Discussed on AM Joy
"Eagles, sheets versus Huahua. But there are two areas where we can all be on the same page number one we all WanNa see the Patriots lose. And number two is that Pennsylvania is ready for Joe by. So. Are you ready to get this done? This is. There are no do overs. In this election, we have to believe that our communities are stronger than the challenges they face. Because, they are we have to believe that are votes matter because they do and we have to show up right now put our shoulders back and we're like we have never worked before. So Bucks County will you join us? Will you help show that our country will never settle for less than our highest aspirations? Okay, get ready for this one. Will you stand with Joe Biden in common? because. I know that when you do we will win. So thank you for being with us today. Thank you to all of you for showing up now when it matters the most and thank you for your faith in an idea that's bigger than any one of us, and that is that we will build a better country because we are going to do this together Pennsylvania. Now, I'm excited to introduce terror, Uber. I often say that educators are the best organizers how many educators are out there. Thank you. We know we educators know how to make something happen nothing we fight our communities and we know when to use art teacher voice and Tara I know you are proving me right today. So come on up. Tara. Is. Shop. So joining me now is the Mississippi Democratic candidate for Senate Mike Espy we are waiting for tenderly for Joe Biden but Mike I'm so excited that you're making time with me today. So there is this rumor going around that Mississippi might go for a Democratic senator break that down for me. Can you believe it go from puts down in February two five points down in August. One down three weeks ago, and now we're naked neck here in Mississippi and it's simple reason we've got motor work with we've got more voters of Mississippi per capita than any state in the united. States. So therefore, we have a lower threshold for white voters. So the admission is clear. We've got to get a record turn out of black voters in Mississippi ten days from now in with Kamala, Harris on the ticket with Joe Biden on the ticket bike is ever run before and have almost one. Seven percent we've got now. The basis of would need we bills at something jewelry here at they. We're going to do very well in today's. My sp, it sounds like you are deploying the Doug Jones strategy of calling every voter. Shocking. Talk. To me a little bit about the state of the race from the perspective of Mississippi when you are seeing the corona virus sadly, tragically hitting. All of Americans, how is it hitting Mississippi and what are you telling folks there. It's hit US particularly hard because we're small state. So we've got about three million people and as of yesterday a about A. Third Three hundred deaths. And there's a disproportionate impact on African Americans. This wail almost sixty five percent of them are are are are in that category. Now, we've got more than one, hundred, thirteen, thousand infections. So we have conservative leadership now and we no longer have a mask mandate. I just sell everyone even those dollar dare do it a Maria Theresa I believe in Medical Science I'll tell everyone listed a doctor Saudi? burks Mississippi our advisers call duct adopt. So we have to mess up we have to blog with social distancing. We have to do it because we have seen, and that's the only way we could get through this together and that's To them. To talk a little bit about your candidate. Cindy Hyde Smith she has basically said things that seem out of turn. Basically encouraging the confederate, the confederacy talk a little bit of how that is playing among voters in Mississippi. Well misset go places that she doesn't want to go. She's holding back. She is really at anachronism she has a kitchen bore could bitter dot symbols confederal outcome, iconography, excuse me and. You know she we got the new flag. Now we've taken down the confederate flag. It was taken out even without a referendum. Therefore, you know most of the citizens of Mississippi demanded but their representatives down but she equivocated on it So every state officials said, take it down except my opponent though she says that the confederate. History was the best of mischievous mystery believe that Addis not so. We're moving forward. She's not going there and we just go lever in place in Mike espy the latest do the third day the twenty first century. One point now. Can I talk to him because you're going to be going into perhaps might be a transformational Senate if it looks like right now that that. Biden as seen, just a flood of voters on his side what do you expect when you get there? There's this huge debate obviously that they are trying to fast track a went Barrett on the Supreme Court speak a little bit to that. But also what may change if there is a democratic Congress Democratic Senate and a Democrat in the White House. They'll. Track her we know. Why we. Watch. In November in the Supreme Court of there's a bullseye on the back of the affordable care act. So Modesto reason that they pushed in their thought fast. So I hope that they don't because I'm a solid vote for the ACA but Medicaid expansion for reducing prescription drugs. And are real hustles open so I don't know what the Supreme Court will do, but if is a democratic senate observing. One boat to try to. Keep the boss Dave minimize Earth Day retreat some way we gotta do all. We can do the budget had to build it back. So you mentioned, one of the issues that are being among American voters right now is absolutely access to healthcare. We have roughly eight million Americans who have suffered under Kobe who may now have pre existing conditions that are. Fortunately, disproportionately impacting black and Latino communities. How can voters ensure that they have access to healthcare if they don't bring back the Senate? Well Mississippi again, as a burst ball state, poor state two, hundred percent of the people below the poverty level and they suffered so many Olympics, hyper pigeon cancer asthma and so forth and they of the vote for mobility. So what we have to do is get Medicaid expansion here allow states like Mississippi to do this and and I'm going to be about for that reach across the aisle do everything we can do even if even these polarized times. A healthcare, a live option or people have Mississippi who poor So. I WANNA. Thank you. I. Want to go ahead and bring in Joe Biden hopefully than someone.
"forecaster" Discussed on AM Joy
"I voted for a guy named trump. Thank you very much everybody. Rachel I wanted to go ahead and bring you and what's your analysis of the way he described his voting experience and how it compares to other Americans. Well you know it's like everything else is like a gaslight right I mean he always votes by mail. So this is the first time that he's ever found the experience of voting by mail or voting in person to be superior right and you know. I I have to say you know he's going off to hold three Super Spaghetti spreader virus rallies where he will sentence some people to death. He's the president of the United States and Turley. They do have the choice to show up maybe some of their relatives will get exposed and they did not make the choice to attend and it's just so it's just so disheartening to have the president of the United States. He's excited to go. On that thank you, Matt Baretto Terrance Woodbury Rachel offer, and my. Admits Season for joining me today. Coming up, we put the focus on the five, hundred, forty, five children who will never see their parents again that's next. I'm Laura Bill and in my podcast Dr Death we dug into the story of Dr Dench and the system failure that allowed him to maim and kill patients in Texas since Dr Death came out I've received hundreds of tips about doctors who abuse their patients. I still get a few every week but one story in particular has kept coming in over and over again far more than any other. It's a story about a doctor who sacrificed his patients health for personal profit, a doctor who had over five hundred victims before being stopped by the FBI doctor who deserves the nickname given to him by.
"forecaster" Discussed on Environment: NPR
"It is only July, but it's already busy for the national, hurricane. Center as NPR's Greg. Allen reports just this week. Forecasters are issuing advisories on three systems too in the Atlantic one in the Pacific. It's been a relatively quiet season in the Pacific so far, but now Hurricane Douglas bearing down on Hawaii. It's a major hurricane, but is expected to weaken before it hits the island Sunday in the Atlantic Hover there's already been eight named storms tropical storm. Hanna is forecast to bring a lot of rain and possible flooding to South Texas this weekend, another tropical storm. Gonzalo isn't expected to threaten the US. It's a small. Small System Moving West into the Caribbean near South. America meteorologist already tracking another system that's just come off the west African coast. None of the surprises forecasters like Phil clots back. He's a research scientist at Colorado, State University who puts together a seasonal forecast, each year of temperatures in the tropical Atlantic running very one much warmer than normal, that provides more fuel for hurricane with so many storms this early some. Some observers are comparing this year to two thousand five the year that shattered records with twenty eight named storms, including Katrina by this time in two thousand and five, already been two major hurricanes so far this year, despite all the activity in the Atlantic there hasn't been a hurricane yet. The peak of hurricane season don't come until late August and the prospect of possible evacuations and hurricane recovery in a time of. Of covid nineteen, worrisome to many testifying before Congress today, FEMA Director Pete Gainer said his agency is prepared. We respond to flooding in Michigan respondents tornadoes in in southern states. We're ready every day on. There's no doubt that Co nineteen makes this more complicated because of the pandemic gainer says Congress doubled. Theme is funding this year, and his.
"forecaster" Discussed on Leadership and Loyalty
"It was. It was way too hidden. They everybody's a little scared supply chain disruptions. You might have been hit because you're not they gave you're involved there. This is going to make everybody trust. Trust trust China a little less. And that's needs that's gonNA pushed to one side so no I don't think it's GonNa rush Russia's things along a stretch of the imagination. I will say this talking about financial markets in general You know I have sort of made fun of the stock market and in successive volatilities exhibited over the last decade. You know member go back to January of last year where we can. We were twenty percent down. And that was the six major. Sell off in this expansion. And it's easy to laugh hyper volatile Blah Blah Blah this time around financial markets spasms so hard that it said Shockwaves showroom lending markets And that in turn necessitated the Fed reserve to inject trillions of dollars and overnight markets to stabilize things. Yes so let's take a step back because now it's no longer funny now. We have a real problem because like it might view the world is right that this thing's relatively Sharp v then. Yeah we took a punch in the face but candidly a small one man. We're GONNA bounce back in the second half of the year pre- pretty fanatically. This is going to be the highest. And we're going to be fortunate because this thing could have been a lot worse as far as bugs go now could have been even deadlier even easier to catch. And maybe even much rather. Maybe it's good public health lesson and let's think about that for a second. The stock market it's collapsed from the bubble was at in December January. This year was so ferocious that it bled into other parts of the financial system and threatened to create a crisis. That didn't he do exist. In the first place Financial markets are supposed to be shock absorbers of the economy. It's where we go to diversify to make sure that if things go sideways we're all GonNa be okay. That's the system in place. It's the big. It's the trampoline at the bottom of the fall right. Well the geniuses who run current financial system have managed to change it into from a Shock. Absorber and turn it into a shock accelerator. It's no longer about diversification. Finance today is candidly. It's IT'S A it's a high. Am Poker Table in Vegas and and and the guy sitting around that table or all professionals just writing for the marked walk in so they could take advantage of the mark by the way worthy mark. John Q. Public were marks. You know at what point in time are we gonNA wake up to the fact of the markets aren't behaving properly the and the reason they aren't behaving properly is because they're not set up properly that the incentives in these large financial institutions in these markets are designed to encourage them to take advantage of public up to to rip. Us off not protect us. Right what are we gonNA realize that what are raving we grew? Why are we GONNA do best even if we do realize it when we gotTA reregulate? We got a dive into those markets. We gotta get rid of all these crazy weird incentives because like your labor market being a lagging indicator Many see the stock market has a leading indicator. Right indicator of anything it's again seven major sell-offs in the last ten years seven right. We never seen this and we're talking going from twenty percent sell off last year it enjoy nineteen to twenty percents selloff January by April. We are record highs by JIT by January. We had the third highest pe ratio ever registered in stock exchanges behind only nineteen twenty nine in two thousand. This is not a normally behaving stock market. This is driven by high speed. Trading drew my dark pools. We have to get in front of this markets. Have to be built to help people not Fleece people but again somebody listening to this would say. How do we do it? What do we do? Now there's I mean because we are we using your language we are John Q. Public. We're not running the Senate Congress. We're not the president not the Fed so on the feds about his federal as as Fed Express. So it's not anything to do with the public right so I'm way sort of skews language. I mean because we are bent over and gather ones I get it. I get it but you know what you know. That happens a lot of places you can trust entrenched special interests who warped the system to their advantage in. Eventually things get so bad that it has to change. And I'm hoping that maybe this is that example. We'll see we'll see you could be right. Maybe it's too hard for us to do anything. That's what I'm asking you Chris what what has to happen because this is my concern. I think I just did a video on this and put it out. Human beings are famously bad for not learning from their mistakes. Famously bad from not learning from history and you know the the stay at home order people hated it like it but you know what? I'm hearing people saying you know what I'm talking to my family. I'm playing board games in my family. A meeting with people that a relative somewhere oven drinks over zoom or whatever it is and there's a connection and we know that loneliness was at crisis before and now a lockdown. We're actually less lonely but connecting with people. I believe that the problem is that now as we start to give back to normal and open things up we jumped back onto the fricken treadmill and stop running in going to the high too so they the temple of Hustle to make it happen again and then we end up in the same place and we don't learn so this is what I'm asking you. What do you think you're an economist? You'll your finger on. I'm going to see I look at. You're asking me about human psychology and psychology. I'm asking you what has to happen economically people to actually pay attention because you said the markets of fleecing people. It's a high stakes Gaming Vegas again. Hopefully people learn. I don't know what to tell you I I really don't i. I have this conversation all the time. It's it's an unfortunate consequence of of our of our of our world that we all have these these. These short attention spans driven. My just constant constant hit hit hit. Hit hit hit head never read more than two paragraphs Nathan. We read nowadays. You know and and you know. I think that that is a problem. And hopefully people will will learn to take a step back and read a little more deeply. Maybe maybe maybe maybe this is so preposterously over the top negative. Maybe this'll get people to wake up to the fact that that these these headlines are just the needles scare stories. We'll see maybe. This is the turning point. I just don't know I hope so because I get tired of this. I get tired of seeing the same grim over the top hyperbolic negative headlines. And then when you read in a little bit you're like this is just somebody making stuff up. And they're doing it to get attention. Not because they're helping people navigate these difficult times. I mean are saying to somebody this week. Revenue Compensation and the rescue me about my knowledge and what I learned and they said you know but do you watch the news and I said I watch tons of news but I don't watch a news and they go to mean I. I listened to Al Jazeera Rt as well as the BBC as well as Fox and CNN and all those things and one of the things I've noticed is the headline can be exactly the same which is what people read but the content is vastly different from one to another and so this is versus sometimes contents exactly the same but the headlines completely different spin right at some point right so the thing for me is the. I'm I do believe and maybe I'm wrong and I'm you know I'm okay with that but I do believe that we are at the brink of the fall the American Empire in the Froyo in the foam that we know it. And maybe that's the universal income thing that changes because capitalism is gum cronyism. And we've gone a bit night. Swam capitalism has always been fundamentally tied. Cronyism they say Democracies Churchill say democracy is the worst form of government. But it's the only one we have you can go on. Let we live in imperfect we live in an imperfect because human beings are in person you know. Stir guess as an economist. What I've learned is that nothing's ever perfect. No we could all by being a little smarter than a little wiser. Make Things Better. And that's what we need to walk away from this. How do we be a little bit better? And there's lots of conversations a have here around how we can be a little bit better after this as we as we finish up. Chris and I'm going to ask you to tell me whether you can find out more about you and your resources before we go to that. I would really like for you to leave a lot of people who are probably feeling pretty anxious right now With some practical insight Advice for them to walk away with maybe shake their head at the TV set and just go through. Maybe I'll send on. Crop is best practical advice if it sounds too good to be true. Still good to be true if it sounds too bad to be true. It's too bad to be true. I E have to understand. We live in a time where everybody feels like. They have to shout as loud as they can. To get your attention and you need to figure out how to disentangle the shout from what the content and That's not all that easy sometimes. But but no your source understand the motivations of your sources understand that so much of what we see out there is again not economic analysis but political strategizing political positioning. It you just gotTa be a more sophisticated consumer of information that is the ethics of face value. Is there somewhere for? The average person is not an economist. Who doesn't understand those things to just go? Okay I can go look here and he is more reality. Willis's the hyperbolic political. I mean look. He got the economists. I always appreciate that publication and I still think that there's some good stuff on some of the newspapers where they actually make an effort to right as opposed to the twenty four hour news networks. No one thinks they're constantly reacting. It's all to paragraph sound bites. You'RE NOT GONNA get any information out of that. You gotta you gotta you gotta read you dig into stuff. You've got to look for people who are trying to break things down. We live in a world. That's wash with data. I mean boy you know. Most vast majority of what I use in terms of resources are dated a sitting there on these wonderful government websites. People can go out and learn a little bit you know become a little bit of an amateur sleuth. The DIG through these data sets get to know them a little bit more We live in the information age. Use It don't let somebody else do it for you now. Admittedly what does this all mean? It means you might not have as much time for instagram or facebook or whatever the poker you're playing online or wherever happens to be appreciate that but you know in the end. We're the only ones who can make smarter.
"forecaster" Discussed on Leadership and Loyalty
"Why are they saying that well? They went in and then they started talking about this. Will you stand in apartment? Owners spoke at their rent. A can't maintain their part. They can't maintain their apartments. And this is the best. Where is the news and he says this allowed using the housing crisis as bad now think about when landlord search shutting down fifty unit buildings because they can't pay the expenses and then they said clearly congress needs to pay people's rent. Oh I see Mrs nothing to do with reality. This is about you trying to get the government to take out another half billions in loans and give it to apartment owners. So what do you think just? Let's put this is connected but not directly online. Which is when we you know this. The Andrew Yang talked about it become more popular now universal. What's your thoughts on that? It makes a Lotta Sense. It just makes life a lot easier. I think we should do but it just would it would it you would you would have to have such a phenomenal rebuilding of the US. Fiscal system is not politically feasible. But it makes total sense right so I wanNA bring up something here that we haven't addressed that that I think is a concern as I mentioned to you before when we last spoke not recording. Just smoke that I had conducted a full interview with an advisor to the World Health Organization and one of the things he said with absolute certainty is that will be a second wave and what we know is that more people died in the second wave of the Spanish flu than they did I. That's that's true the time is different and I completely. I agree with that. But they're still you know still idiots who were not paying attention to the fact of the spread and so and he said very clearly the size of the second wave will be completely bent on how good we were isolating in the I mean you. Have we been great? I'm not so sure about that but anyway so so let's say there's a second wave and let's say the second wave is half of what it was. We still got a shutdown. We still got to put people in isolation you go through this again. It was the recovery of the project. You'll sense of recovery if we if we if we double dip into this shutting down the economy. That's the W economists would calling up the W scenario rebounds and there we go back on and said it would be a w right and every time it happens you lose a little bit of long run on. It takes a little longer recover. I still would argue. We'd have a second V maybe not quite as frenetic on the bounce back because the underlying kind of you won't be quite as healthy given what we had to deal with in just around so on that front again again. We have two approaches with utmost humility. And I realize I've been pretty forceful making my point because I do get frustrated with the constant negativity that does dominates conversations. And it just like now. Listen if you take a step back and really think about. This doesn't make sense. This crazy. Negative things people are saying and so on and so forth but again I have to maintain the same humility. That everybody else should be which is to say. Hey you're right you know. I don't think in its current form. This virus is gonNA come roaring back. I think we're going to be smarter about or remember. The Spanish flu was a Mutt. Was in some ways. Worse than this because it healthy people not unhealthy people. The way this one does and we still lived in the Dark Ages from a medical perspective in World War One and craziness was going on and there's all sorts of reasons to say that that's not an apt metaphor for what's going on now. What scares me if you said well Chris what scares you. What would scare me is not this virus coming back but a mutated form of this virus coming back because that's always a problem with saying they mutate. They change right has already mutated. Right has agreed on a second mutation of Australia. Already mother you go and that's the kind of stuff that does scare me and this. That's that's yeah. We have to start worrying about that again. I still think we bounce back. Maybe not quite as frenetically. I'd still think that that's that. Is They still get that second? V There but again. This damage starts to build every time this happens. It's a little bit more damage to the economy. But the other thing to think about there and I think that that people should take some some heart inness which is to say You know while it is true. The sink mutate. It could come back on the other side of it as a society given our health resources given how smart were being about things. One would also argue. That would begin this. You'll get one Pearl Harbor. I'll say that again right that that eve is starts coming back. We're going to be a little quicker off the line. Hopefully get this under control in a little quicker fashion before it gets out of control and then if you really WanNa be hopeful and of course this goes towards Some of the things. We're SORTA figured out but right now is you've seen these tests right where they go out and they look for antibodies. We're actually finding a lot. More people have been exposed to the signal we realized and and it may well end up being that this thing is going to be able to get traction second round because too many people have already been exposed and already built up immunity to it. That's it could more mutate and be much worse. We have all been most been exposed and could never get off. The ground is a huge range of outcomes there including the fact that What we now know is you can get it in more than once and the antibodies are not strong enough and there's all kinds of other sides to it from a medical point of view You talked about Labor being a lagging indicator. Almost out right. I understand that. So what would be a A leading indicator for again you had to see. But that's that's that's sort of my point arrive always said that employment is a lagging indicator we point out for example initial claims for employment insurance. Actually peaked in July. Two thousand nine after the recession was over rights. Weird about this one is believe it or not the number. The initial claims for unemployment insurance already falling. They're already going down as as of last actually the first two weeks where the worst and actually the last three weeks been down down down. So we're at some level. Were already over the Hump as the case may be in that particular fraud the because remember Selena the information. We're being fed. No you're not because nobody gave him. We'll continue to think of it this way the way to think about this. It's a great point. Graduate brought up the way think about is initial claims for unemployment. Insurance are not a reflection economic pain they are reflection if you will just the mandates but the mandates are now in place. You're not going to see anything more extreme and that means from here on out. Maybe starting this week next week the week after pay attention to those claims because they start creeping up again that's supply chain affects that's true damage so it's hard to say sorry to think about this as way but you gotta think the last five weeks initial claims don't mean anything the next five weeks for initial claims those means something. Okay so all right. So that's one veteran. Yeah so for us. Who ARE NOT ECONOMISTS? Like EUCHRE's what do we? What do we need to look for right to go? Yeah Okay we're GONNA be alright. Let's get back into it all shit. Hold onto your pennies on again. I will be paying attention to what's happening. Just in terms of the sheer number of cases public health information. We have out. There is probably the best we have at this point in time and that is to say as long as those number cases continue to fall and they're still getting over the peak. I think the futures pretty much set again. You WanNa look at those those number of new cases if that thing starts starts to come up again if we start to get a second way because you know places like Georgia Florida opened up. You could have more pain coming on the pike and again remember all the damage but number two now is to inherently temporary. But the damage done in the meantime that's permanent and if we have a second wave number new case starts to rise again and you start to see again whole shutdown more damage yet. They're so a number of new cases the number of claims for for for initial initial in front employment insurance. Those are important statistics as long as they continue in the same direction. I'm not worried. If they start to turn the corner. I will start to worry gay so let me sort of take it veer a little bit left here because I i WanNa look this. You know in a bigger picture. Some what I mean by that. Is You know everything that would being thrown at it by the Meteorite. Now is is very immediate. You know as you're right. I mean it's pretty terrifying to most people most of the time because they don't have your understanding of and I totally get that but looking at this further out we both know you probably know much better than I do. the push for the for global financial dominance of China right and and how that has been pushed forward and how they are buying mineral rights in Africa and building infrastructure. And they're doing a lot of things to make sure that they become the next global financial empire and with that the potential for the The US dollar to stop being. Globally traded finance and also arise of digital economies. Also in some prophecy will call it of a digital financial global currency. Know I'm not saying necessarily you know but something similar. That is more global. Talk to me about. Do you think that this the pandemic thing and this impact do you think it's going to move any of those things forward fast slow down? GonNa make any difference whatsoever. No I think it will the difference but look. I think everybody has a look every was already having problems China right. Nobody trusts them. A lot of people are frustrated and and this isn't a make that go away in fact this is going to intensify. That started in China It it.
"forecaster" Discussed on Leadership and Loyalty
"Percent. It's incredible I've never seen the like it. You know a lot of this is even helping the economy. They're trying to buy the election. Twelve hundred every American doesn't matter why don't they hurt ridiculous small business loan for every business? It's crazy they're throwing money away so but again huge last but not least okay so where we got here. How long how? Deep deep bill on government do crazy amounts and last but not least of course healthy economy so the only thing we have to think about is will consumers be fundamentally different after this and this again something. I just look because what are the miserably. Say Oh oh my God. People are afraid they're never gonNA go up. They're never going to go to a ball game. This is a new normal. No no no. This is a return to an old normal. Listen people. Pandemics are are always been among us? Pox Diphtheria months Youtube Urculo SIS. Yellow fever typhus the plague. We've been dealing as humanity's been dealing with these things for for forces we've been around They they have records of plagues ripping through Rome in three hundred BC. This is nothing new and guess. What for all these episodes in the past. There's never been any evidence of people. Stop going out after. So maybe maybe we are truly the fragile generation. Maybe maybe we have declined so much in our personal strength that we really will change. I'd like to think we're maybe kind of half as tough as the Romans right now again. There's nothing here that says to me. People are GONNA permanently change. Yeah we're going to be a little smarter. We're GONNA wash our hands a little more. Maybe wear a mask but then again they've been doing that in Asia since of course they had SARS murph's they probably better off for it. I'm sure we will too but again the idea that people are going to permanently change is just not doesn't make a lot of sense to me just doesn't okay So you add it up. What are those things tell you? This is a Vegan. These this these are not job. Losses every job losses are terrible jumble. I know these are not job losses. These are temporary job. Layoffs in the great recession millions of people had no idea what they're gonNA do next. The vast majority of people been laid off today. Know exactly what they're gonNA do next going to go back and do exactly what they were doing before this thing happened. It's same thing so let me let me let me be a little more police on the ground with this because I want to I want to. I mean listen. Chris couldn't be happier. If you're absolutely right right so I really am not always but usually but so. This is not from any miserabilist point of view. This is from like okay. Let's this grounded okay. Because as we talked about people infused by the media whether that's positive or negative you know is what it is so I wanNA bring it back to sort of nuts and bolts for people who are looking at this right now get so you know you've got the their business insider said eleven thousand none. Oh sorry. One hundred. Ten thousand restaurants are expected to permanently. Close I know people I've met. That's that's absolutely preposterous. Okay well I know places. I've met who hold on. Let Me Finish. Who have been in business a restaurants for years and years who have had to close the. Dole's on top of that we know because like as we recalled this many positive wilder already preparing to stop opening up and come back a little bitch which is great and we're GONNA come back in in the context of restaurants saying twenty five percent to fifty percent of capacity. Will you can't run a profitable business at that. And the rent isn't fifty percent or twenty five percent so your expenses are going up and that could take that as one example deprecate three things. Let me let me let me respond to that quick. Okay first of all. You're right not every restaurant's going to reopen. But I'll tell you why it's not because of the virus is because the fact that the country was oversupply restaurants in the first place. It's an industry that has over expanded. They have a capacity issue and someone reopened simply because we have too many period. Get the putting that little tidbit to one side. Silly fast forwarding. Some of the axis of the idea that one hundred thousand plus restaurants aren't going to reopen y. If you were successful restaurant it was making money in January and February. Why would you not also be successful restaurant in July making money? What would prevent you from going back out in fact quite the opposite. What else would you do if if the government is a said? I've said you can't you kind of moved in twenty five to fifty percent capacity? You can't run a profitable business well first of all. I don't think you're going to keep twenty five percent capacity maybe fifty percent for a couple extra months but you know again remember you just deal with it so you you're gonNA extend your hours a little bit. You're going to have a little bit of a way. People eat a little later. It's not as if somehow or other that's going to kill a business. It just isn't something else to keep mine look. They didn't make money for a couple of months. I appreciate that What business makes money every single month? Anne do you know why they used to call Black Friday Black Friday? No I don't because that's when retail shops actually made a profit for the year. They lost money from January to the day. After thanksgiving and it wasn't till the day after Thanksgiving. They started making money most recognizable. I wouldn't care less until July or August anyway because they're not busy this time of year. Now you said well rent. You're going to continue to go up. No they won't know I didn't say go up. I said they stayed the same. The same and I'm at twenty five percent capacity. Landlords are getting into this to. It isn't just the Federal Government. Who's getting involved here? Landlords are also getting involved look. Landlords aren't dumb. If you're a good paying restaurant a G- a good restaurant that's patron on time as successful a tractor to Europe particular of Shopping Plaza. You'RE GONNA work to make sure that restaurant maintain being open because you'd prefer active healthy successful restaurant to a hole in your shopping center. Every everybody owns commercial. Real estate knows this so they will work with these restaurants. They will not impose such high fixed costs on them that they're going to push them out of business. It makes no sense so again. None of this makes any sense. And besides here's the other thing we gotta keep in mind yet again. You're going to the most obvious indicator of the public health mandates restaurants and bars through restaurants and bars or not a big part of the economy. Big Part of the labor force but as far as GDP goes pretty teeny tiny labor sector. Before when you talk about the labor force you're also talking about people who have disposable income of any kind. Yes if I'm if I work in a restaurant and they've laid off because it can only be twenty five thousand capacity. I don't have a job. I'm spending therefore I mean there's a trickle effect in a run on the kiss keeps going. That's what I'm talking about. That's why I'm using it restaurants as an example of being sort of meat and potatoes. Somebody who works in a restaurant probably doesn't have a ton of savings and if that job goes away they're not going to spend that's the kind of thing I'm talking about sure but you know it's interesting so we got the number today right. There's a couple of things that that made me feel pretty good about this number. One negative four point eight percent. How can you feel good about that but against graduate? Look what's happening first of all. Yes we saw the hit two autos. We saw the head to restaurants and hotels travel stuff we saw. They're very clear it was exactly what we've dissipated. Two things came out of that though. That was very surprising. Almost half the decline in economic output in the first quarter of this year. Believe it or not came from one sector which by the way is not cyclical healthcare. Sounds Weird but have healthcare here was an enormous negative in q one and that's because the healthcare sector simply said anybody's doing anything that's not necessary. You're not doing it now. Right dentist office closed down Doctors Khoza. Guess what this is not a cyclical industry. People are going to get their teeth cleaned. They're gonna get their cavities filled. They're going to go in for that surgery and they're going to do in the second half of the year so yeah that was a big negative but healthcare is not cyclical. There's no mentor. All that spending's going to go back into place the end of the year. That's a big lift. Here's another thing so to your point. There are certain workers out there. Certain business people out. There are losing a lot of income and of course because they're losing income now they're not gonna be able to spend as much in the third quarter exactly. There's another group of people people who are making money right now which would include you a me. But we are being denied the ability to spend that money So the question is is. Where is the weight greater? The pent up demand driven by people who can spend money or lost man driven by people who can't earn any money right now. Well again we got some street numbers from the first quarter of the year because one of the things we saw was a surge in the savings rate. Clearly pent up demand is growing much faster than the loss in future man and indeed. If you look at the numbers you can. Kinda back out won't get the other number until tomorrow the next day. But I'm guessing the savings rate in March by itself was about thirteen and a half percent to put that in context of savings rate last year and the four is about seven and a half percent right. So you're talking of new norma surge in savings and you know all that savings of come roaring out in terms of surge in consumer spending in the third quarter. The when people are allowed to spend again and that's going to help all those people have been displaced right now. Look this is a recession. People and businesses are getting hurt. I appreciate that and I'm not trying diminish any of that. My point here is is when you actually look what's happening. What you're going to see is a huge surge after this record deg second quarter. I heard this as well. The conventional statistic seventy percent restaurants are not going to reopen and again. What's the source of that? Nothing there is no source some clown out there trying to scare people. It's probably a Russian bought coming up with that nonsense. There's no reason to believe it. The vast majority of restaurants are going to reopen because there's demand for what they do and the owner and the manager. WanNa do it. So what about when the Chamber of Commerce? That research shows that one in four small businesses of a very likely to close the account. Say what's assault on that miserable nonsense? Okay per bollock headlines trying to get people's attention screaming for for my my piece of the Pie as the case. Maybe this is all strategic positioning is not logical economic analysis. So when you told tricycles this let me let me the the National Apartment Council which is kind of like the organization that lobbies for apartment owners at the national level. They came out with an amazing headline. Thirty percent of people didn't pay their rent on April first. Well turns out that that's true in April first. But that's because most people pay for a second or third in. Oh by the way. According to statistics most months not even eighty percent people play on the first they pay most of them pay by the second third. The raft spinning numbers. That don't make a lot of sense. I've talked to some folks who manage apartments. They're not saying anything close to those kind of numbers Most folks I know that again I repaid. Wasn't that big of a deal a couple of bills. They're paying late but that's it okay. So it's not really but then I continued like well..
"forecaster" Discussed on Leadership and Loyalty
"Let's get everybody freaked out of course initial claims for unemployment initial claims for employment the entire year of two thousand eight. There were twenty two million claims in last five weeks. Almost thirty million. Okay you look at that. Farmers are not. This is crazy. This is much worse. Do great recession no because bagging indicator yet. There was a lagging indicator. It was driven by the collapse of the bubble. Look millions of people in finance in real estate and construction in retail back then. These people lost their jobs and they lost their jobs permanently permanently. Most people had no idea what they're going to do next. It took them years to rebuild their finances. Their incomes are careers years and it was an enormous it to the economy right this time. There's nothing driving these permits. The I'm sorry these applications for employment except for the fact that we have public health mandates that prevented from going to work well. That's not entirely true. Chris because as I said you've got airlines that have laid people off and I just used one example which is airlines. We also know that one of the top five industries for employment is hospitality and they've laid everybody off and so if you're laid off from work and you've already started to fall behind right then how you're going to go out and spend money but see you made assumptions in there. You see your. We're if you're already falling behind. Where did you come up with that? Because I already know people are people but just goes you know. People doesn't mean it's a statistic okay dies facto. People were rich. It doesn't mean we're all rich that's fad. But telling me him. So you telling me this you. Ticks are the are not showing that people are falling the middleclass struggling right now. No they're not listening to me. Talk for second okay. Yep I understand but you're confusing two different things here okay. Let's say for the sake of argument that two weeks. After after the public health mandate some genius came up with the cure for the virus. Okay Bam you would. All you'd meant that within days public health nowadays would have been lifting everyone back to work to a degree okay. Why wouldn't they well for for one simple reason and I remember? I said two weeks after this beginning. So I'll give you an example right. So the example is the mandate says they can go back but restaurants are only allowed the I said if we had a cure in the mandates purely lifted. This is just a hypothetical. Just oh you're meeting so it doesn't exist anymore in. Hr Yeah there's no everybody at work right now. Okay great so we all know that the numbers were seeing right now are driven by nothing more than the public health mandates and the damage to the economy is is nothing more than mom. Whatever the mandates go away some level right because again if a business was profitable before the mandate. There's no reason to think the business wouldn't be profitable after the mandate if you had a good job before the managed we can have a good job with that business after the mandate nothing changed. Okay so in. Theory the pre and the post mandate economy are exactly the same. Now your point is and you're right here this is this is. This is where the rubber hits throat. The point here is very simple. The damage to the economy that will prevent a very rapid rebound is damage to the economy. Be created during the lockdown. Workers aren't getting work. Businesses aren't able to receive revenue and that goes on workers can't get a can't get get get their paycheck. These businesses can't get revenues. Then the damage starts to build and depending on how much damage builds during the mandate that will in turn determine how rapid of rebound there isn't a backup Okay that's the key here that that's the question you can't look at any of the numbers seeing right now because all these numbers are only as sustain as the mandates period. But what kind of damage will get done? And what does that mean for the bounceback afterwards? That's the question now. That boils down to five questions and this is how we think about it. Five questions are how deep are the downturn. How long is the downturn back home depot the mandates how long has the mandate how healthy was economy to begin with? What is the government doing in the meantime and will people's behavior change in any permanent way post pandemic now? This is how we thought about this as opposed to running models which aren't really in any way shape or form viable because the economy is behaving any normal way. We said broke this down into these five questions. And it's pretty clear that when you go through these five questions and answer those questions. What you find is not something a suggest to you with this long painful recovery rather a very very sharp v school thrown real quick. How deep how deep are things actually happening? Well listen I appreciate your numbers on restaurants hotels and airlines. You're absolutely right. Did you know if you took all restaurants all hotels and all airlines and added them up their contribution to GDP is half of healthcare by itself? There are a tiny fraction of the economy. Yes they're very visible. Seeing an empty airport is kind of weird. But it's not a big part of the economy and it doesn't this doesn't get into the rest of the economy until you start to see. Supply chains hits which take months to build up. It doesn't happen overnight. These things cascade your I remember. Even in the midst of those kind of situations lot of restaurants are figuring out how to do. Serve you at home. And they're actually doing and they're all making money but they're keeping people working there gaping revenue going through you. Little scientists. Hotels are actually busier than you think. Because there are still people having to do is essential. Travel is nothing like it was tourist. Hotel your empty. But if you're a business hotel you'd be surprised things are happening and yeah I know those airlines are cutting way back. But then again they did that. After September eleven to kind of standard for the industry they take big hits in the Naples back. Nothing there scares me. Nothing in terms of those data. Our analysis suggests overall the economy probably about ten percent of Economic. Activity is being constrained. Now that's going to grow because of supply chain affects but ten percents not all that much and by the way that means really only about ten or twelve percent of overall incomes are being affected. Now number two. How long does this go well again? We already have some light there. The answer is this is done by the end of this quarter. We know that watching Italy and Spain and China. We know that because the number of new cases already peaked and starting to come down because we have systems in place because it's summer all sorts of reasons that were already on the back end of this thing now I now things. Don't get fixed immediately in. This virus is disappearing. It's not going to turn into a smallpox. I've never seen again but were much smarter. Now I tell everybody you're not gonNA have a second round the way we did this time. Why because people were dying of this virus in February when our president was running around saying there was no virus in our country. Okay you only get one Pearl Harbor. Ask the Japanese. They'll explain it to you. You get one shot. That's it doesn't Pan Out. You don't get a second try this. They had their Pearl Harbor. Now we're going to have SWAT teams of Public Health Professionals. Looking searching constantly scouring making sure this doesn't happen again so. I've got two things. I WANNA come back at you with an Oakland and I want to. But let's go through the questions if you don't mind. I know you're GonNa guy case maybe I appreciate your your space against go through three four and five three. How healthy is economy? Why heads conversation with the last time idea that most Americans four hundred dollars nonsense complete auto utter nonsense in fact if you look at data from the survey of consumer finances which comes from the Federal Reserve's best eighty we have not only our debt burdens on American households lower today than they were in two thousand seven. They're lower than they were in one thousand nine hundred ninety eight well. Let's for high income families. Chris no actually not they break that data down on on quintiles of household whether you're the bottom twenty percent or the top ten percent your debt burden today is substantially lower than. It was back then. People aren't carrying a lot of debt housing percent of people's income. Housing costs cheapest. It's been in a decade when we came into this remember for the last two and a half years the biggest problem in the US economy labor shortages two and a half years. We've had more job. We use them. People looking for work wages have been rising at a nice decent basis. You look at the debt. Markets debt markets were incredibly. I heard Moody's claimed a fifteen percent of homeowners. We're GONNA get foreclosed. We're from the great recession. Why this is the cleanest housing market? We've seen in thirty years because of dodd-frank has been very low borrowing equity levels in American real estate at all time high levels. There's no sign of oversupply mortgage. The borrower mortgages has been about seven fifty for a decade. This is rock solid housing market. It's not gonNA go down right. That can go through litany of these things. The economy was in solid shape. When this thing and you know some people are going to get released. They're going to release tight labor markets. We've ever seen not a problem number four. What's the government doing? I got a better question. What the Hell Aren't they doing? This is crazy. You know you talk about the difference between this happening. Stimulus package is a stimulus. Package off the charts. Right point five trillion plus spending. Now keep in mind. You know it in the run up to the Election prior to the great recession during the recession people argonaut we had a recession and the stock market finally cratered in September in the run-up to the election. Finally we stayed Congress. Like oh maybe we do have a problem there and they did some half-measures and then Obama came in in the in the power and Mitch. Mcconnell's primary goal is to make sure Obama was a one term president not to help the economy. So they did very little did very light. They didn't help this time. Around complete opposite two point five trillion plus spending now again context. This is a twenty two trillion dollar economy in each quarter we see about firemen trillion dollars economic transactions. They're doing two and a half trillion dollars in Spin Mulas in a five point five trillion dollar quarter.
"forecaster" Discussed on Leadership and Loyalty
"Food yet. This is the only people got that excited about economics. But I appreciate the enthusiast. You back said that Chiro serve time you enter the room. Yeah yeah well. Although we do have we do have a bit of a following. There's no doubt about it and While I don't intentionally try to be an ICON CLASS. I ness unnecessary. Just necessarily find myself to be in a position of being contrary and time after time We did make that call back in the day. We call the great recession. And it's funny. I love that rhetoric. You lead this in with right. The conversation what happens next and capitalism and never be the same the economy's going to take years to recover. This is worse than the great recession. All right here's my prediction over. There told I want to get to you prediction before you. WanNa one year opinion on this because I don't know what your opinion on radio is but he's a pretty well thought out guy. People tend to people tend to follow him. A lot of big. Big people tend to follow him. He's a billion hedge fund manager and a few jurists and during a business insider interview recently said the American dream does not exist right now. He said right now. It doesn't exist right now leaders comic system and collapse de Fine. That's complete utter nonsense. Okay good tell us and it is absolutely completely universal across infant manage. They're all screaming type thing and that's because it's not economic. Forecasting Strategic Positioning Hedge Fund. Managers have managed to convince the world in the last twenty years. They really are the most important people in the row and what that means was in. Everything's going great. No-one should when they're raking in the billions and billions of dollars in profits. When things go bad you'd better be willing to pony up billions and billions of dollars aid for the industry. That's not capitalism. My friend that is called being a parasite on the economy and the hedge fund managers have truly managed to work their way in to this wonderful world. Where you get it going up and you get it going down. Nice job of you can get it right putting all that to one side You know last time I was here. We talked to Mike. My theme was miserable. The term of course is used to describe the current national atmosphere where everybody talks negative about everything no matter what right and what. I said is lock. If you if you strip away that stuff few pull through it actually look what's going on. Consider what's happening out there today. The idea that we live in difficult times that collapses like a like a wet paper bag look it not even some of the dismal statistics. You put a majority of Americans can't scrape together four hundred dollars for an emergency situation that quote unquote statistic has been debunked in more ways than I can possibly tell you it is garbage number. Every economist understands the data understands. It's garbage number. It's not true people have vastly more resources available to them to that and yet to your point you quoted a front y because it is now conventional wisdom it fits not with an economic realities but it fits within his miserable miserable as world. We have to make everything sound worse than it is. Now I'm not for a second pretending this virus and the public health mandates that have locked down. The economy in their wake aren't serious. This is by far the worst thing. Date OUR ECONOMY IN TEN YEARS. This will end up being called the recession. We know that now because q one came in it was negative. Four point eight percent. That's the initial estimate. Q2'S GOING TO BE NEGATIVE TOO. So they're GONNA call this officially recession. This isn't the great recession. It's nowhere near to grace. Recession type scenario no matter how scary the numbers are this is functionally temporary and you said how long three or four months. Okay so let. Let's address some of these things right so because you know what are you saying that is pretty radical from from what is being touted but again. Let me to stop right there when it comes to any conversation about the economy. Hysteria is the new normal. Okay January of Twenty nine thousand nine hundred seventy five percent of the economists who contribute to the Wall Street Journal next recession survey said we were going to have a recession by twenty twenty. Why well because real estate was collapsing? Inflation was heating up. Interest rates are on the rise and the Chinese trailers about to demolish American manufacturing by the way none of that happened in twenty. Nine hundred was a perfectly good growth year and of course by February of this year. Believe it or not. Only ten percent of those economists thought we were going to have recession in two thousand. Twenty hysteria is the new normal. Everybody always take some more dramatic negative. Turn twist can and this is no exception. This is the biggest hidden in a decade. And things happen is the insanity the hyperbolic over the top nonsense as inflicted or headlines as simply increase proportionately. Well I don't disagree with that I mean I said back in two thousand nine if it I wondered and just put this to you. I wondered I said if CNN MSNBC Fox it nobody to come out and said there's a recession. I wonder what I remember saying. I wonder what would have happened. I wonder if people would have just continued on as normal Illinois. I'm not saying because because we are fed by the media and we respond to the media response. But that's the piece. There's never been a media driven recession okay for all the conversations about consumer confidence and negative headlines. The most important consumer confidence is basically. What's in your checking account? Net Pay Pack. Just got okay. And that's what drives people not the headlights and let's talk about the great recession. Because I'm glad you brought that up. Let's let's talk a little bit about that resists right that's the think about breaking up now to be clear. Let me back two seconds to step sort case. You look when you think about where we are. We have to all start this conversation with a lot of humility that is to say we don't have a lot of data. Yeah okay. We have Cuban GDP growth Denver right but remember. This really only was a function of the last couple of weeks of the of the quarter right so doesn't really tell us a lot. We have almost no data whatsoever on on April right now because it's too early or he's singing about April right so we don't know what's happening. We have lots of anecdotes but very very very few actual data points. Okay now I say that because anybody. Who's a good forecaster immediately going to say? I don't have any historic episode to base this on. This is a business cycle. Unlike anything we've dealt with in the last forty years our models don't apply we don't want to have data and so anything we talk about has to be talked about with this idea that we don't have a clear path forward now all these people screaming into the world are not actually offering that humility. Listen this can get ugly. I don't think there's any doubt about that. The idea that it's going to get ugly that this is going to be worse than the great recession. There's not a shred of evidence of that none education. It's amazing because all these people who are saying negative things are doing so without everyone stopping and saying you know to be perfectly honest with you. I don't have a clue what I'm talking about. I'm just making it up as I go along now. We don't do that. Look I really try very hard to say. Look let's let the data talk to us. Let's let logic talked to us. Let's acknowledge the fact that we are in this unknown zone and then let's start thinking through what's going on out there and ask yourselves logically. Does this in fact look like a great recession type scenario team now? Let's talk about the great recession. What happened then well. The great recession was created not it December of two thousand seven when it began right in fact it was created in the previous six years up to two thousand one and two thousand seven we had the subprime revolution right. Where Wall Street developed a wonderful way of funneling trillions of dollars into the US economy? With no underwriting. Right just incredible. What are the greatest financial frauds in the history of the United States? History of the world will never be recreated. These guys figured out the greatest Ponzi scheme in history ponzi schemes. You wonder why I don't like hedge funds all that much but putting all this one side sure. What do you deal with here then? Fifteen trillion dollars of subprime credit pumped into the economy half of that went into households directly. The other half by the way was tied up in the financial system itself because they were doing. All these asset-backed securities nonsense fifteen trillion dollars. That intern overheated parts of the economy in in a phenomenal way. Obviously there was a consumer lending industry. There was of course the housing industry which saw a vast oversupply new homes coming online increase in prices. Like we've never seen all this new debt driving at different frenzy and then of course it was also the consumer imbalanced because evil took all that free money and home appreciation to heart and he said. I don't have to save anymore. Saving is is something my parents did. That's a and use cost savings. Rates drop is consumer spending through the roof and the US began to open up a massive trade deficit in two thousand. Six economy was rotten to the core. Alga GDP was at the surface. Now everything started falling apart. Louis bidault six. That's the subprime. Numbers started turning off and borrowing started slowing down the housing market slowing down. And you could see it. It was like an iceberg. Coming at Ya you weren't stopping it. Bam it hit. Everything fell apart six quarter downturn almost six percent real GDP decline and it wasn't just the short run. It took years for the economy to get back to normal levels of output. It was the biggest economy in decades. It was nasty now. Let's compare that to today. We have a massive subprime bubble. No do we have any economic problems at all prior to the pandemic. No we do have a Dawson. Getting much hang on. We did have a pretty huge deficit. Well yes we had a big public deficit. That was one thing that will come back to that a few minutes. All right okay but you clearly the fine right. I mean look at all. The Wall Street Journal pessimistic backed off their numbers and everybody said it was going to be a good year and suddenly disband. Democ shows up.
"forecaster" Discussed on Leadership and Loyalty
"Both the perceived authority and your professional status in the eyes of your market and to do it all at once. This is your way to go from being invisible to getting meetings with anyone find out more by going to med. Cast DOT CO THAT'S AG C. A. S. T. DOT CO first publishers create thriving magazine businesses. All right. It has been said that we are doing. Well is by the amount of money we spend on travel British Airways as we recording this British Airways just laid off twelve thousand people candidate Sixteen thousand five hundred people united has reduced its April schedule by more than sixty percent. Morgan Stanley economists expected Gross Domestic Product to plummet thirty point one percent in April and June. Quarter with an unemployment rise of an average of twelve point eight over that period higher than at any point since the great recession. So what do you think the impact will be economic impact will be on the from the global pandemic? We'll stay tuned. Because we've got a fascinating show with for you where we're going to really look at that and remember you can chat about this episode or any past episodes inside of facebook and Lincoln groups simply look for the leadership and loyalty podcasts. You're listening new view. Thank you for joining us. Strep yourself in. We're about to go full monty. You can find on Apple. Podcast spotify iheartradio aware of unions podcasts. And remember we always need your help insane relevant so please get over that rate review and subscribe to the show and with the or an average two point five to four million listens for every single show on grateful to be cited by INC DOT COM. Is the number one podcast to make you a better leader in fact if you are a podcast you? WanNa be one. Come and join us in our community..
"forecaster" Discussed on Cape Up with Jonathan Capehart
"And welcome to Cape Up in July Twenty. Eighteen election forecaster and analysts. Rachel Pittock offer did something extraordinary but not only did she say the Democrats would retake the house. She predicted the number of seats and she was only off by one. She's been sought after prognosticator. Ever since you're not going to want to miss one minute of what Bitta cover has to say yes. She says Biden will be the Democratic nominee. Yes she says. Democrats will win the White House back. Yes Senators Susan Collins Cory Gardner and Doug Jones Art Toast. The question is how does she know this? Why is she so certain? Find out right now. Rachel.
"forecaster" Discussed on KQED Radio
"Eliminate the risk of avalanches within the scary and that's just not the case an avalanche forecaster say along with the increased risk comes a new cachet it's becoming cool to say you've taken avalanche courses and are as prepared as you can be Kirk Sigler NPR news Jackson Wyoming hardcore dog loving listeners already saw the results on foxsports but in case you missed it last night the Westminster Kennel Club dog show crowned the champion the best to show you the standard the standard poodle looks pretty much how you'd expect a show poodle to look her black furs carefully groomed into a fluffy top not on her head and her chest legs and tail feature perfectly shaved tufts of hair called pom poms Siebert looks like she stepped out of an eighteenth century French aristocrats sitting room that poodle style is unmistakable the white our poodles grin that way what's with the little plumber but thing happening on the V. these compounds are keeping which is hips warmth from the cold water the hip joint is very important and that little drummer at things you were saying on that right the week those factors flippers no coupon bonds are not used as flippers but the mockumentary best in show did get it half right to keep its internal organs as well as its joints warm brand hunter of the American Kennel Club says poodles were bred to be great for tree for their curly coats were shorn down to palm times because it made them look so very fancy but because it made them faster swimmers while protecting vital organs a lot of people think that it's a very pretty dog it doesn't like to get dirty it's actually quite the contrary it's actually very versatile dog and it's been used in everything from a harder to a retriever to a circus act dog it's really got that kind of versatility and that kind of look and they're really loved by the American public now seems owners have already announced her retirement so she's probably not going to jump into a freezing lake to retrieve a freshly shot doc anytime soon I don't think she wouldn't clearly in her blood her hair you're listening to All Things Considered from NPR news at five eighteen there's a traffic mess in San Francisco because of of street closure here with the details it's Julie deputy incident tree crashes shut down mission street that's between twenty second and twenty fourth until further notice NWT buses to be re routed around that area couple problems on the name and south eight eighty after marina two vehicles stuck together second lane for the last your back up is to Davis and the Hayward crash S. U. V. in a motorcycle south eighty eighty at tennis and they're not blocking a very sluggish from the Welling Boulevard truly devilish forty Q. we D. Julie will be back with more in ten minutes support for KQED comes from neon presenting portrait of a lady on fire a love story set in eighteenth century France about an affair between an artist and her female subject opens at the landmark Embarcadero and AMC kabuki eight this Friday Sutter health it's the integrated network of doctors and hospitals it's doing their best to keep peace to keep patients feeling there's it's.
"forecaster" Discussed on WBZ NewsRadio 1030
"Little bolt of lightning if you will um in it is pretty um it is is pretty amazing to see of heard of never seen it myself i wanted to put something just typical on the on the water is because the ship is floating on the water in from our inflated idle novel the other thing is you just have nothing around you when it's the water right if you're walking through your neighborhood you got the trees in the houses in whatever uh so you don't really have the line of sight that you would have with being on the ocean yes okay or great thank you bill thank you as belfair ghost bill and i'm a mouse this person is calling in is this person calling for trigger we'll take it yeah all right yeah ill people i tell you i tell you when the car i tell you when not to call for people to call this late knowing jacobs kerber get ready to go on tv linda you're lucky i'm taking you you know i want the bad weather forecaster over who are out there if the death of it oh probe okay it goes everywhere you go any body my body had when you learn it you know what kind of changes that goes into wednesday's rain about to come gel a lot of people say that girl they get aches and pains with high pressure low pressure uh depending on uh the storms coming in um exum pains are actually a lotta people say that you can forecast the weather that way so so tell me get a degree yeah linda tell me what's the weather going to be the marlon i was going to be nice nice so comfortable day unusually warm for january and no.
"forecaster" Discussed on Science for the People
"That we can bring to the to the effort um and it really it really is a challenge sometimes to know when to stand up and sound the alarm bell that this is this is really bad last week was was kinda bad this coming week is gonna be super bad in knowing when to do that is a challenge we take that responsibility very seriously and of course we work with a lot of other entities that are doing the same thing or partners in a local television stations uh the national television networks anybody in the media that's getting word out too so it's a bit something we pay a lot of attention to and think a lot of about a lot about and it really just comes down to no forecaster expertise what do we think is going to happen in sometimes conveying that uncertainty is is one of the most challenging parts of her job because we talk about probably listrik information in uncertainty every day were scientists in that's the world that we live in the lotta people are looking for a black and white yes or no is it gonna snow were not are we going to get a tornado were not and we're not there in the end sometimes we are more certain about ballot than others learning to convey that information in a language that everybody can understand is challenge for us rick thank you it's been excellent talking with you and there's to something really fascinating about the weather i think because everybody has experience with weather that's exactly right everybody experiences weather every day all the time so it is it is something that uh people like to talk about him people like to criticise the forecast but i'm i appreciate you uh having me on to talk a little bit more about how those forecasts mornings are put together and there's a lot of dedicated scientists who are working hard to do the best job we can to get you the best weather information so i appreciate the opportunity to talk about it you want to learn more about rick smith or the national weather service we have some links to get you started in the show notes for this episode which can be found on our website signs for the people dot cia.