38 Burst results for "Fomc"
Thinking Crypto News & Interviews
A highlight from Greg Dickerson Interview - Fed Continued Rate Hikes Impact on Bitcoin, Crypto, Stocks, Real Estate & Inflation
"So the Fed is finally convincing markets that they're serious about taming inflation, that they're going to keep rates higher. The interesting thing that what Powell said, so at the recent meeting last week, he said four things that were very impactful to the markets and very impactful to investors and their outlook moving forward. One. Link to please visit the link in the description. Welcome back to the thinking crypto podcast, your home for cryptocurrency news and interviews with me today is Greg Dickerson, who is a real estate investor, a consultant, entrepreneur. And Greg, there's so many titles, but you obviously have a huge knowledge of the markets. Yeah. Yeah. Tony, it's good to see you. Well, Greg, you know, as the Fed continues their tightening and cycle they've had some very interesting updates where they pause rate hikes and they went back to rate hikes. Now they're pausing again. I would love to get your thoughts on what is the Fed doing here as best as you can tell us and their strategy. Is it still they're going very aggressive against inflation or they're ramping down? Yeah. So, you know, you and I have been having these conversations for, I don't know, about two years now. Right. I think so. Yeah. You know, pretty much during the entire Fed hiking cycle since inflation, you know, went out of control. So we're seeing disinflation, inflation's come down a little bit, but we still have a ways to go. So the Fed is finally convincing markets that they're serious about taming inflation, that they're going to keep rates higher. The interesting thing that what Powell said, so at the recent meeting last week, he said four things that were very impactful to the markets and very impactful to investors and their outlook moving forward. One, he said we're going to carefully evaluate the data and our policy moving forward. He said carefully a number of times because he understands the impact that these higher rates, the longer they stay higher can have on the markets, especially the credit markets. So that carefully was a very interesting thing that he said. The other thing he said was neutral is much higher than where we are from here. And he was asked the question, well, where is neutral? You know, that R star, that neutral Fed funds rate. And he said, we will know it by its works. So what he's saying is it's higher than where we are now. We don't know how high that's going to be, but once we get there, we'll know it by its works. In other words, it's going to put a lot of pressure on credit markets, you know, moving forward. The other thing he said was, you know, a lot of what we're experiencing in inflation being sticky at this point, he said, we have seen a lot of progress. He said, however, the economy is strong, the job markets are strong. So that's kind of keeping inflationary pressures higher for longer. So, and that was the last thing that he said was, he said that there may be a time when it's appropriate to reduce rates, but that time is not now. So, you know, those were the, you know, things that he really said that were really impactful to the markets. So what was happening is along the way, markets were pricing rate cuts like every quarter. So the Fed would hike and they would say, well, next quarter, they're going to cut. That pretty much happened up until the last meeting. And what we've seen now is the markets are pricing out rate cuts into September of next year and have pushed them out. So I think the markets have finally gotten serious about taking the Fed at their word and not fighting the Fed. You don't fight the Fed on the way up and you don't fight the Fed on the way down. And the markets have been fighting the Fed the whole way on the way down. The markets have won that fight to this point. So now we're at that critical mass because the Fed is really handcuffed. So a lot of people said, well, Powell seemed, you know, visibly unnerved at that meeting that he didn't seem his usual polished, smooth self, but he seemed a bit rattled. And the reason is, is because the Fed knows that they're handcuffed. With inflation where it's at, if they take the foot off the brakes at all, so they have the brakes on the economy right now by raising interest rates. When the economy runs hot, you raise rates to cool it off. When the economy cools off or, you know, runs hot, you put the brakes on. When it's, you know, when you want it to speed up a little bit, it starts cooling, you lower rates and you put the foot on the gas. So what he knows and what the FOMC know are that, we really can't control the inflationary environment that we're in now. Energy, jobs, things like that. Their policy has had no effect on that. They can't really control that food prices, those types of things. So we get into a situation where the credit markets start to crack again, carefully monitoring financial conditions and the environment. There's really nothing they can do. They can't cut rates because inflation will just skyrocket again and run through the roof. So they're in a very difficult spot.
BTV Simulcast
Fresh update on "fomc" discussed on BTV Simulcast
"Production capacities for the UAE is 5 going to go to million barrels per day by 2027. I'm also going to be speaking to the consumer side of the equation so that's be going to with the Indian Energy Minister later this morning that's Hardee Singh Puri and that of course is always a very entertaining conversation very controversial as well sometimes. Well sometimes we need a little bit of edginess as they say. There we go. Of course Yusuf will be live ground on the there of course just very briefly just a status report of these markets which I had to say really just to be fairly straightforward Asia is in bad shape. I mean Hong Kong's reopening today and you look at a benchmark just in the last 30 minutes or so give or take the benchmark has actually now taken out the lows back in March which now puts us on those levels you see on your screens at the lowest here tick basically back to the start of this year if not December in some cases right now. Perhaps the silver lining here is you are getting some stability across European and US futures which might indicate that these Some of these equity markets when we approach a cash opens of course might is the operative of a catchy bid there we'll see what happens with that of course we're pivoting now of course to what's happening in the bond markets where yeah let's for silver look linings I guess bond futures are steady now that being said of course we're steady at yields at these levels so perhaps it's a very low bar we just had the RBA rate decision early on we'll get more in that in just a moment there out with of it a religious a better sense I guess of where we are on market very briefly we talked about oil and there we go we've now taken out that 90 dollar per barrel level as far as Brent is concerned and really strategies at work I'll keep this very very short if you're long short strategies in terms of treasuries and long day that you've done very very well in the last three months of score underscoring trend of higher for longer I'll leave it there for now we'll take you straight now to Singapore April is there for us with I guess April to that very point concerns from a hawkish Fed signaling really showing up in the Asia Pacific today yeah showing up here in the region and across assets we're seeing those fears about higher for longer showing up across bonds FX sex and equity space yields climbing in Australia and New Zealand I'll get to the RBA decision in just bit a but bit just to give you a sense of the bleed we think Hong Kong markets back online today the losses in is enhancing across sectors and it's not just the Fed fears or perhaps the fears from China manufacturing given what we saw from the Tyson data over the weekend we also have the lack of that typical support from southbound flows because China markets are still shut I want to give you a sense of the movers in the Hong Kong market so we are seeing the biggest drag from Alibaba and and me too on today and in new world if we can just pull out that chart is actually the biggest China among the property developers the Hong Kong property developers after it slashed its dividend payout now on the RBA decision Michelle Bullock's first her debut you she opted to keep things unchanged in fact I am live colleagues pointed out that the monetary statement very much like last month and that traders are perhaps reading this as tilting delvish and we actually saw the swaps for the you know they give us an indication of of what what we're going to see from the central bank next month pricing in 40 % of a rate hike versus 50 % pre -decision we also heard the RBA say that these rate pause will give us time to assess the impact of rate hikes remember this is a central bank that's hike by 400 basis points since yeah the April last Aussie holding on to earlier losses not seeing that much change in the bond yeah either David it's really all about rates isn't it April April Hong there in Singapore for us before got to also mention of course at JGB auction about 30 minutes back of course higher yields as expected lower bid to to cover in fact a little bit more in the great conversation and hire for longer just host of voices have it really been weighing in on where they need to go interest rates that is including Cleveland at this point I suspect we may well need to raise the fed rate funds once rate more this year and then hold it there for some time as we accumulate more information on economic developments and assess the effects of the tightening it financial conditions that is already occurred but whether the fed funds rate needs to go higher than its current level and for how long policy needs to remain restricted are really going to depend on how the economy evolves outlook right Dees Jill is here with us in our set to take us through really the ins and outs of this rate story today and I mean Jill we're in the fourth quarter already and we're still playing this game of pick your hawk yes we really are look Messer is not a voting member this year but I don't think that her comments are out of line with what we've seen a lot of policymakers on the fed I believe the latest survey it's a 12 out of 19 fed policymakers anticipate raising rates one more time before the end of the year that could come obviously as early as next November when the FOMC meets again and then ultimately they also pared back their expectations of cutting rates into 2024 so I that's think really David just enforcing this higher for longer narrative that's really been building over the past couple of months we've just had some really really resilient labor market a lot of expectations that it's just going to take a little bit more for inflation to come down and so ultimately I think that's what you're seeing play into that narrative and what Masters ultimately saying yeah and it does seem I guess in some way signaling that you know as we move closer to this November meeting that they probably have one more in that back pocket yeah yeah exactly I mean look I think the dot plot for the Fed has kind of charted out that possibility already we've heard some of the more dovish kind of talk a bit about maybe you know there's not a need I think that Jerome Powell is also as he has been trying trying to do all year is trying to presume that room for maybe they don't have to raise rates again but he wants to the keep door open right and I think that the rest of the Fed does as well I mean this has been just an incredibly tricky year trying to navigate everything here trying to make sure that they're not pressuring to you know rates too high you know you obviously heard Jamie Diamond I think not afraid to be a contrarian there I'm saying that rates could go as high as percent 7 I mean at that point that would be the highest since I think 1990 and well above the upper end of the 5 .5 range that we're in right now but I think that again it's really about these policymakers trying to preserve that room to move with the data see what you know this job data is showing us inflation data showing is us before they ultimately make their next decision in November Jill great stuff thank you Jill Dees is there of course here with our us in set in Hong Kong right now just ahead we'll have more from the UAE Energy Minister and why he actually thinks that the oil industry has been really losing capacity in the last few years here our conversation from Antipack the summit that's taking place in Abu Dhabi and of course ahead of that they will talk global markets alpha where you do find that at this point in time Aperture investors CEO Peter Kraus will be joining us in a couple of minutes Fed hikes perhaps still on the table. Plenty more ahead Music Music Music It was sluggish. A lot of people agree on that. Bloomberg surveillance with Tom Kean, Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. Finally we got some Abramowitz gloom to get in there. The ultimate south signal might be when Lisa Bloomberg surveillance. Must listen. Must watch. Lisa your data point go.
Bloomberg Radio New York - Recording Feed
Monitor Show 15:00 09-25-2023 15:00
"The United States Border Patrol has exciting and rewarding career opportunities with the nation's largest law enforcement organization. Border Patrol agents enjoy great pay, outstanding federal benefits, and up to $20 ,000 in recruitment incentives for newly appointed agents. If you are looking for a way to serve something greater than yourself, consider the United States Border Patrol. Learn more online at cbp .gov slash careers slash USBP. That's cbp .gov slash careers slash USBP. It starts right now. Good afternoon, everybody. Live from the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers Studio, streaming on YouTube and Bloomberg Originals. I'm Carol Masler along with my co -host, Tim Stanavic. It's Monday, September 25th. We're almost done. Happy Monday, Carol. Oh, my God. It's gray and it's raining again. Did you say almost done with the month? Almost done with this period of rain. Oh, okay. I didn't know what you were going to ask. All of the above. Interesting day, folks, because we are seeing stocks edge up a little bit, bonds sinking though, as traders continue to speculate that central banks are going to keep interest rates elevated to quell inflation. I mean, that is our backdrop. Thank you. Based on all the central bank policy last weekend and indeed, certainly what happened from the FOMC. The dollar also hitting its highest level since March. This is investors sought safety. Markets are front and center. Carol, sick number six percent on a 10 year. We were like a couple months ago, Katie Kaminsky told us that and we're like, wait, can you please repeat that? Did we get that right? Six percent? That's looking like it's not that crazy anymore. Maybe doable. She's going to be back.
Bloomberg Surveillance
Fresh update on "fomc" discussed on Bloomberg Surveillance
"They've been following on the usual cable networks the motorcade at coming down and i i believe we just saw one of the trump sons walked by the gauntlet of cameras uh... will be following that throughout the morning i am curious though steven when you talk about how the consumer has been strong as powered through are we seeing a consumer that is managing through interest traits the highest levels going back to two thousand seven mortgage rates going back further are we seeing consumers is avoid paying them entirely with your savings or with their buffers or with locked in rates that are nothing like what we're seeing in the market yeah i think that that latter scenario that you that you point out is is really critical uh... you know this i think some numbers thrown out there that something like eighty five are the ninety percent of all consumer debt is fixed rate and of course the biggest shocker that are would be mortgages and you know we know very well that people are just sitting in their homes the supply of existing homes on the market market is very low which is creating a tight housing market but what that means is that people are um... they like three those four percent mortgages and it's not worth it unless they have to move uh... to move and take on a mortgage rate that might be double that so um... certainly some households the ones that need to borrow are gonna feel the the impact of higher rates uh... but as you say not only do you have a lot of people who are just sitting pretty with those low mortgage rates but also um... you know as i mentioned before household balance use in very good shape people have a lot of savings and for the first time in a very long time uh... you know the savings can earn a good a good return um... i think it's in some ways it's going to be has and have nots between the savers in the borrowers are going to be households that uh... come under stress but the household sector as a whole is is certainly weathering higher rates i think better than a lot would have uh... would have feared this goes to the whole whole question of long and variable lags are we looking at just a policy that's already been basically implemented markets and won't hit the consumer in time to really matter or are we looking at lags are that just incredibly long and if we keep these rates higher for say another year you could start to see pain that has not been reflected in anyway uh... based on the existing economic data you know what this is a debate i think that's going on hot and heavy at every FOMC meeting now because we're seeing it play um... out publicly you know the traditional view which Powell has subscribed to and others have made that is there are those long and variable lags anywhere from twelve to eighteen to twenty four months and so you that know the tightening is still taking into the economy so to speak but then governor waller came out a few months ago with a each uh... i think uh... recently retired president bollard and made a similar case and a few others have as well on the fed that hey you -know -what financial markets transmit monetary policy much more quickly then was historically the case and it's pretty much all in already um... initially that and you know either we're gonna have to do more or going to have to stay tight for all the time long steven stanley thanks for the brief i'm sure we'll speak to you along the date of path to uh... the sixth the twelfth the thirteenth and and the november one is well really green industry naztech up six news in new york city is michael barf tom lisa thank you very much new york attorney general latisha james says ahead of former president donald trump's trip to court for the start of the civil trial over business dealings that for years he has falsely inflated his net worth to enrich himself and cheat the system from just arrived at the manhattan court for the start of the civil trial trumps former attorney michael cohen told msnbc he will also be in the manhattan courtroom i'm looking forward to actually seeing him in the courtroom i'd like to him to be able to look me in the face to understand and that he's created this and this is the first time in his entire life that he is going to be held accountable and have to deal with the you know repercussions of his own personal actions the trial in james's suits already has resulted in the judge ruling trump committed in his business dealings one of house speaker kevin mccarthy's harshest critics plans to make good on his threat at to remove the california republican from his leadership post representative matt gate says he will use a procedural tool called a motion to vacate to try and strip mccarthy of his office as soon as this week this comes after mccarthy relied on democrats provide the necessary votes to fund the government two scientists have won the nobel prize in medicine for discoveries that enabled the creation of mrna vaccines against covid -19 and that could be used to develop other shots in the future gary and american kiriko and american drew weisman were cited contributing vaccine developments during what the panel that awarded the prize called one of the greatest threats in health in modern times her card sandberg is a member of the assembly he spoke at the event the test call mrna vaccines against covid -19 have had a tremendous impact on the interest in mrna based technologies mrna technologists are now being used to develop vaccines against other infections kaitlyn kiriko and weisman will split a dollar million prize live from the bloomberg interactive broker studios this is global news twenty four hours a day powered by more than twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts over a hundred twenty countries michael bar and this is bloomberg tom lisa michael bar thanks so much lisa we i think we just got to take 32 seconds here we're all separate john and i are in new york completely separate you were in paris and you know we did the whole covid thing for months months and months and in all that and we made a decision at one point and we talked to imperial college caltech the university of washington with their definitive microbiology and particularly johns hopkins in full disclosure folks all of that with the philanthropic supportive michael burger uh... owns bloomberg television bloomberg radio but this nobel prize is all about those people we talked to it's ab this is absolutely foundational to the Pfizer vaccine it's as simple as and we talk about it with the reference point of covid still present obviously as many people are getting it and still wearing masks but if you spin it forward this technology a lot of people expect to actually help with cancer vaccines and things of that nature and there's been some real search right into that where they've had clinical trials that have had some success so you know kind of changing the game in a number of different ways on the inoculation I totally take your point that folds back to David Baltimore and Nobel laureate I believe 1975 can't remember Rockefeller and at as Caltech well but it's an extraordinary moment today folks for science and it's not just two people won that at University of Pennsylvania it's everybody we talked to including the great team at Johns Hopkins that kept us going through COVID right now a data check in order we go to bonds it's and just simple the 10 -year yield 4 .63 percent this is Bloomberg surveillance together we have the opportunity to build a more sustainable and inclusive future at the Bloomberg new economy forum we help make this possibility a reality by cultivating new connections among global leaders that transcend geographies industries and ideologies because when global leaders work together outcomes benefit all of us learn more at bloombergneweconomy .com when you get your news from Bloomberg you don't just get the story you get the story behind the story how your EVs battery may not be as green as it seems why a decrease in birth global rates could send countries scrambling to increase immigration you get context and context changes how you see things how
Cryptocurrency for Beginners: with Crypto Casey
A highlight from Wall St Calls Fed Bluff! Interest Rates DROPPING to 0% Sooner? (Historical Data Says YES! )
"The Federal Reserve, in their latest FOMC or Federal Open Market Committee meeting this past Wednesday, decided to not increase interest rates and rather take a pause, keeping the current rate of 5 .25 -55 % in play. And Jerome Powell signaled to the market that the Fed intends to keep interest rates higher for longer with potentially one or two more rate hikes in the coming months and tighter restrictive monetary policy than previously anticipated through 2024. Following that, all across media we have different experts and talking heads in the financial industry talking about, yeah once the Fed reaches its goals they will start decreasing interest rates by a quarter point here, a quarter point there, over a stretched out multi -year period of time. So everyone should brace themselves for potentially 5 plus years of a high interest rate environment. And as crypto investors, as people on our journeys building wealth to achieve financial freedom, in this extremely crazy unprecedented macro environment, what are all these experts and talking heads basing these predictions on? And more importantly, what is the Federal Reserve basing this roadmap off of? You'd think off of at least one single part of its 110 years of existence, you'd think they would reference at least one part of its century span of history, you would think it was based on some piece of past data for instance, but it's not. Everyone is making some random wild guess based on their imagination and Wall Street is calling their bluff. Check it out. When rates drop, they usually plunge. The Fed thinks different. History suggests central banks expected scenario isn't likely to happen. The Federal Reserve is hoping for something it has never managed before, not merely the softest of soft landings for the economy, but the slowest rate cutting cycle in its history. Up the stairs, down the elevator. When the Fed cuts rates, it usually slashes them. It expects to be different next time? Is it though? Is it going to be different? Let me know what you think in the comments below. Since COVID, the this time is different narrative has been a popular one, so will it pan out? You tell me. In the meantime, let's take a look at this chart that shows interest rate changes over the past several decades. The most recent instance is almost a perfect stairs looking hike and elevator crash. Then back in 2005, we've got another longer period of hikes followed by a drop in rates and zooming out a third, fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh instance of similar activity ranging back to around 1975. But here from the precipice of the pause here, this elongated gold line here is the Fed's forecast that all these talking heads in the mainstream media are also forecasting. There has never been a drawn out series of rate hikes ever, and smart money knows it. They seem to think they can just coast down slowly, said David Kelly, chief global strategist at JP Morgan asset management. It never happens that way. So who's your money? The Fed and the talking heads or Wall Street? Let me know in the comments below. Either way, we need to be prepared for any and all scenarios as crypto investors speculating on new innovative technology that still doesn't have a play. What should we be mindful of? What other scenarios could play out in the next six to 12 months, we should consider in order to increase our chances of potentially experiencing financial relief in this insane, unprecedented market. Hello, I'm crypto Casey and welcome to another episode of crypto this week. Let's take a look at the global news stories and state of the current macro environment.
Bloomberg Surveillance
Fresh update on "fomc" discussed on Bloomberg Surveillance
"You know there it is Apple's gonna try to compete with Google and on search that's what Gurman does. Amazing. Joining us now Sonia Meskin head of US Macro at BNY Mellon with a really interesting short note she comes with experience from the New York Federal Reserve System and also her work at London School of Economics in Pennsylvania. I love your quote on the ambiguity of hire for longer discuss the what -ifs here of this q3 q4 debate over hire for longer. Sure well the thing to keep in mind here and I think the market is actually proving that right now of course there is the news of the BOJ but structurally we believe that the natural rate or the rate that balances savings and investment in the US economy has risen compared to the previous cycle and what that means is that a defense going to have to keep rates higher for longer but it also means that they're possibly not as restrictive as we would have believed them to be in the previous cycle if they'd raised rates this far. Will the Fed be overcome by events? To me that's a key thing. You're an acclaimed Fed watcher with your service at New York Fed. Is this a Fed that just has to wait for the data, wait for the dialogue, the narrative and then act? Well it's very difficult to estimate the natural rate in real time just like it is difficult to estimate the term premium in real time. They're both actually unobservable in real time which I think is a big reason why the Fed going is saying to we're wait for just the data and see how that shakes out. It'll help with our observations. Does the data screen right now that we're sufficiently restrictive from your standpoint? Well you know it's hard to say. I think that in fact the strengths of the the consumer, the strength of the housing market and even the resilience of manufacturing given the run -up in rates that we've had tells us that the economy is quite a bit stronger fundamentally than it was in the previous cycle. How are you gauging that in real time? Are you following companies, a select group of corporations? Are you following economic data? What are you looking at judge to that? You really have to look at it from top down and bottom up and compare the two. Right now when you look at what the Fed is doing and the fact that we're going to have a meeting today with Patrick Harker and venture Jay Powell with a group of small business who owners are feeling the pain more substantially, do you think that the Fed has their finger on the pulse? Is bias to the right place of possibly not being restrictive enough versus concern about being overly restrictive? Well, I do that think lower tiers of the consumer are feeling this more than folks that have high net worth built up. Similarly, companies that are in a somewhat weaker position debt are in issuance are probably feeling it more than those that are well positioned in terms of their cash balances. versus businesses. So yes, we are in a somewhat defecated economy at this point, but I think on net, we're in still a much stronger place than we would have expected to be last year. How closely are you watching the dynamic that John and Tom were talking about earlier, that the interest payments are going up so significantly for the United States, that the deficit is and expanding there's increasing concern about the ability to pay this back. This leads to either fiscal withdrawal or it leads to something else, which is higher yields and bond vigilantes. How are you gaming this scenario out? Well, I think that's a very, very tough one. I think that's actually a bigger concern at this point than even potentially near term consumer or corporate weakness, right? Because if rates on rise a sort of sustainable basis, then it will be eventually more difficult for the U .S. government to refinance itself or finance itself, right? It will be more expensive to the taxpayer and at the same time corporates would have to refinance into a higher rate environment as well. So we will get squeezed potentially from the public and private sides. But are you suggesting that fiscal policy and fiscal economics will intrude on the monetary policy debate? Technically, they shouldn't. The Fed should be independent. It takes the U .S. fiscal side as a given. But you know, it's a tough situation for them in the past cycle. At least inflation was well contained this time around if inflation re -accelerates, say because we have structural tightness in the U .S. labor market. It would be a very tough situation for them. Hear this from Andrew Honenhorst over at Citi. House prices, energy, tightness the of the labor market. Where does that risk for re -accelerating inflation come from for you out of those things? You know, I think this NFP report coming out will be very interesting to watch. Not just the headline gains, but also what's happening with the participation rate. Because for example, we've had a lot of the gains in the participation rate from foreign -born workers that might peter out and will be back to more of a structural tightness in the labor This raises a major question for a lot of people. Of the inflation decline that we have seen, the disinflation that we've witnessed so far through this year, how much of that has been a result of the Fed tightening and how much of it has been the supply side responding to what we've seen at the price level? We would say the supply side has been a big part of the story. Certainly there's been some weakness overall in the economy from the Fed tightening, but again, as as we discussed, much less than we would have expected last year. It's hard to point to a significant amount of demand destruction of the back of the Fed's tightening. Yes. So how on earth do they know if they're sufficiently restrictive? What on earth is this conversation about? Well, there's long and variable lags as always, and those are variable. I think, you know, the Fed is leaning into variable and long, or maybe short. That's straight out the cheat sheet of the FOMC, isn't it? Yep, pretty much. Bramo, isn't a that confusing point for you? I'm struggling with understanding the bond market entirely right now, because how much is this really being driven by those deficits, by the fiscal backdrop? How much do we understand the resilience in the economy? We don't. I mean, honestly, how many times have economists gotten it wrong this year? Every week is another thing that people seem to miss, myself included. Great, you're certainly not alone. Sonia, thank you. It's good to see you. Sonia Miskin there of BNY Mellon. If you aren't just joining us, welcome to the program. The S &P 500 shaping up as follows this Monday morning. We're negative just 0 .01%. Now with the latest news from New York City and around the world, here's Michael Barr. I'm Lisa John. Former President Donald Trump has arrived in New York City and is expected to attend the opening of his civil law trial in Manhattan this morning. Trump posting a message to his Truth social media platform last night. See you in court. Bloomberg's Jeff Bellinger has more. Donald Trump is expected to attend the opening his of New York civil trial today. Trump is accused of committing fraud by inflating his net worth by billions of dollars in financial transactions. The Republican frontrunner for the 2024 presidential nomination is in jeopardy of losing control of his real estate empire after a judge authorized New York's General Attorney Letitia James to cancel certificates for companies that hold the assets. Trump's presence at the
Bitcoin & Crypto Trading: Ledger Cast
A highlight from Rate Pause
"Hello and welcome to Ledgercast. My name is Brian Crossguard here, as always, with one and only Josh Olsowich. Hey Josh. Mr. Brian. How you doing? How are you? I'm good. I'm happy to be with you today. You're already cards pulled up, ready to go. I got my best podcast hoodie on, you know. Only the best Ledgercast family. Getting the hoodie season, depending on what part of the country you're in. For sure. My dear Alabama, I mean, this is the weather that you live here for. Like, most of the year is incredibly humid, but September, October, November, that's when it's the good stuff. Well, people didn't come on this podcast to hear about the weather. They came to hear about head and shoulders. We always start with the weather. I know. It's like a podcast faux pas, but we do it anyway. It's the human experience. There's a head and shoulders on like every market on all timeframes. Like, you can't not see it. ETH, Bitcoin, S &P, Qs, any risk market, we'll put it like that, any risk market looks very, very toppy still to me. What are your thoughts on, you know, as we enter our 37th week as macro LARPing traders? Yeah, well, this continues to tell a story, right? Dollar legitimately been up only on a weekly basis for more than two months. Hold on, hold on. Jeff in the chat said. Jeff, were you listening for your show? We were just discussing the accelerated aging of Ryan in the show. I feel like I feel like the bear market is hitting me in every possible way right now. Sorry, continue. Yeah, I'm I'm going to be very gray and old and wrinkly if I make it through another cycle. Anyway, the Dixie is up. Yield. You know what I realized this week? Back to the Dixie for a sec. I realized that the Euro chart, Euro USD is basically the Bitcoin chart. So if you're rooting for Bitcoin, you're basically rooting for the Euro chart. I don't know how that's going to work out. It's not the team I want to be on right now. No, I agree. I don't know how that's going to work out for us because that Euro chart looks bad, quite awful. Yeah, that's bad. So I keep that in mind generally for people, you know, if you see some good news or positive news in Euro land, which I think is rare these days, it should generally signal wellness for Bitcoin. Yeah. Well, it's mostly that dollar strength. It's just not. Yeah, it's all it's all just the same thing. Right. Yeah, exactly. We titled the show Rate Pause because rate hikes were paused. So this is the first time in quite some time that we've gone into FOMC with no change. The result of that was you start to see the 30 year kind of catching up to the two year because they also said that they are planning on staying high for longer. So we're not going to do the thing where we just immediately start going into cuts. And so, yeah, it may not have the desired effect that people might expect by a rate pause. At this point, holding rates at this level is restrictive eventually, right? It gets more and more restrictive as the lower interest rate that like rolls into this new environment, you know? Right. But I think it's honestly, I agree with the Fed. I think keeping it here and doing a wait and see type attitude makes more sense than keep raising and then panic cutting when the time comes. I think you have a potential to break a little less in this regard. I think they should have paused a while back and should have started way before they did. But nevertheless, the idea of pausing but not committing to a cut, I think is reasonable. Well, the markets didn't get angry at pausing. The markets got angry because they hinted at two more hikes still. So if that actually happens, I don't think it will. Look, I'm a chaos agent. I say go all the way, right? Pedal to the metal, no half measures. If you want to kill the economy, go for it. So yeah, let's do two more. Let's do one in November, one in February, whatever. I don't know. I think the consensus, though, is that markets aren't going to last that long. Markets being the economy, I guess. But the economy just isn't going to last and hold up through that. So unemployment is going to tick up considerably. That's the expectation. You're not going to get your soft landing. And Paul basically said as much that that wasn't his base case during the meeting. So you got to keep that in mind when you're looking at risk markets like crypto and alts especially are just still obliterated and continue to look terrible. Two -year looks like it wants more. The three -month yields look like, all the yields look like they want more. Yeah, they're all acting like it. Especially if you take today out of the picture, which I'm not sure I'm going to read too much into what's happening on a Friday. Well, we had, so yesterday we had a negative 1 .6 % day on S &P. And there were already legacy analysts coming out saying, oh man, Paul's going to have to cut this year. It's been one day. You people are so soft, so pathetic. Pillsbury Doughboy over here asking for cuts after a down day. Give me a break. Just absurd. The chart on the S &P does look like it has room for more downside like that. Oh, for sure. Pretty clean breakdown, but it's not in panic mode. It's in the middle. It's in the chop zone. 4200 makes all the sense in the world based on some basic technical analysis. Look at the 200 -day moving average. All this is just meaner version. You have people panicking that the number is going down instead of up and they're pathetic. I mean, that's legacy for you. Even when you look at non -technical analysis, if we were in price discovery for the stock market right now, it would not make sense. It just does not make sense relative to the economy. But ledger, price is in the forward future. It doesn't look at what's happening now. We're not going to get a recession. We're going to get a huge GDP print, man. Forward future looks like we got another year or two of grinding. Like grinding economically, trying to figure out this balance of wage inflation, commodities inflation, cost of goods. There's a balance that has to exist there. Life is more expensive for people. Their homes are more expensive and their business loans are more expensive. are Their wages up, but they're not caught up to that. And so the economy needs to figure itself out. It needs to find its Zen zone. I agree. That could take time. But that's not the S &P. The S &P is eight companies who have billions of dollars, don't need to borrow, don't need debt at this interest level. But now the problem, I think Apple especially, I don't expect their new phone to sell gangbusters because the economy is... It's one of the easiest things to not upgrade. Right. Well, that as well. But USB -C, right? Welcome to the 21st century, everybody. So I'm expecting those numbers to be soft. The Nvidia story seems to be softening, even though it's hard to really know what's going on there. There's still lots of lots of demand for those checking news. Yeah. But I guess the point is, who cares about the rest of the S &P, the 493, right? It's all about the top seven right now. And if those are weak, which they are, just in the charts, the markets are going to turn lower because you're not getting any help from the other 493. All right. I want some of what Andre is drinking in the chat. I'm just going to plop this onto the show. Here we go, Andre. This is your moment. Fed waits another year to lower rates than the BTC happening. The presidential election and lower interest rates are all going to be happening at the same time as we go into the next bull run. Space exclamation point, which is another way of saying triple exclamation point. Where do you put that space in front? Andre, I'm with you. I hope you're right. I think people believe that if they cut, then that will be bullish, but they won't cut until things look terrible. So if they're cutting, then we have a different problem, right? We have a recession if they're cutting, right? It's over if they're cutting. We just have to dodge a recession. You just have to dodge a recession. Around halving, whatever. And then there's this other school of thought, which is kind of what Andre is hinting at. Maybe the halving doesn't matter. Maybe it's just a coincidence that we've been in these four -year business cycles, and it's just lined up perfectly. I've seen that narrative growing recently, which is surprising to me, but it makes sense. Look, if you look at the data and you just don't pay attention to halving, I agree. But I think the halving brings eyeballs. It brings people understanding the asset a little differently because they're like, oh, wait, what do you mean? The supply is going to be cut in half or whatever, the daily emissions. Anyway. And meanwhile, Bitcoin and ETH both basically at their 200 -week moving average. This was okay. So that's the tweet you have up. This was my engagement bait last night. This is if anybody was paying attention. It's comparing the 200 -week and the 200 -day moving averages on Bitcoin. The last time... They're converging. Yeah. So they're converging. And the last time it looked like this was 2015 for a bull cross. It technically didn't cross bearish in 2015. I just want to highlight, though, Josh. We are both getting rejected by that right now, if you look at this weekly. Yeah, but that's okay. It's September. It's key three. I don't care. But yes. They're just winding around in there. They're meandering. It's not good. Also, one other comment. Yeah. Gotta work on this hashtag. 250k or bust. Gotta work on that. Well, that's the target. We need some ideas. That's the 8000 % target from here is 250k. That's where that came from. Yeah, we gotta do better. 250 by 25 is too much of a mouthful. I feel like the phrase millie needs to be in there. Millie? Quarter millie? Quarter millie. Maybe just full millie. Look, I've been on the record. 250k is the target for the next run. Okay. Even before this tweet, the stars are aligning. Yeah. People are saying what's happened to me. I'm using a different camera. I'm in a different place. And I got a haircut today. And everyone says you look old. I look weird and old. I am old. Here, I was I was puffing you up early. You're telling me I look good. And I was telling you how old I felt. And now the whole chat's like, hey, you look old. You look terrible. I think you look fine. But you know, maybe it's the rates, you know, the rates are just killing everybody. It is the rates. I'm gonna go ahead and go out on a limb and say that I'm affected by that. Sure. So yeah, if we look at if we look at Bitcoin, also, We've also got if you don't like the head and shoulders, at the very least, you have to admit there's some sort of double top there. Yeah, double top, lower, lower low by a smidge. Rejected by the fast and long moving averages potentially. There's a there's reason to be concerned here. If we're above 28, at any point Q4, I think we're good for move higher, which doesn't like logically make sense based on what's going on in the world with rates and everything. So if this then that if we get above 28, we're good. Until then, I expect lower lows, ETH especially. What's going on with ETH, man? You're the ETH fanboy, the ETH cheerleader. What's happening? It's even better than BTC in terms of rejection off the 200. That's clean. It's nice and clean. That's a dump it. Let me translate that for everybody. That means it's even more bearish. I think this tells some of the story like there's not many people in the ecosystem that don't consider pair trades, you know, like opportunity cost or a risk profile of being in one thing versus the other. And a lot of people are dancing on like long tail of altcoins. Like they'll play on those playgrounds. But the people that are in big assets are looking at this where ETH BTC is breaking down further. It looks like it might be escalating. It looks like it might be going from breakdown to a steady progression to the downside. And I don't know, maybe that also looks double toppy to me. Yeah, but maybe another 10 -15 % on ETH is on that relative to BTC and people just don't see the upside as worthwhile. I get it. I understand. I like 05. And if 05 doesn't survive around the ETF stuff, assuming the ETF stuff is going to be bullish, I like 03. I think a 200 week tap at a minimum would make sense. So, you know, you're looking at another 10 % relative in that scenario. And that would probably be a bullish bottom. Bullish, she says. A bullish bottom if it maintains that. I'm sure, I don't know harmonics well enough to just like eyeball it, but I'm sure there's some sort of harmonic. Batwing harmonic, yeah. Yeah, there's something there where you could draw like a crab or something. If this one's a 0 .03, that would be concerning. Well, what's the breakout level of the head and shoulders? Like 0 .035, 0 .036? Yeah, I think that's reasonable. I think that would put ETH people, myself included, just in Jordan tier mode. Look, if ETH doesn't get an ETF and Bitcoin does and it actually sees flows. It could happen. It could happen. That's all I'm saying. That's all I'm saying. Hit your targets, Josh. 0 .053 before 0 .035. That's true. I mean, we need to spot ETF first, which... That's just math, just so you know. And dyslexia. It's just kind of interesting that it has not made a higher high since going proof of stake. Kind of weird, right? The Real Dangles asks, can we do a mini series on learning macro fundamentals? I've only ever looked at crypto, so half of what you guys talk about is foreign to me. No, but there's some people that you can learn from. One of the best, in my opinion, and I was... Jeebus was giving me crap about this, but Ray Dalio is, I think, the greatest macro mind that actually takes their information and then shares it. Big Debt Crises is a book. It's a study of cycles, basically. It's a study of deflationary, inflationary cycles, and they're very good. I would read that. That's a great start. Like, that'll be good. That could teach you more than I ever could. There's many, many other things, in addition to what he talked about, that go into what he talks about. But at the end of the day, it's all about cycles. And that's a terrific book. I would listen to a bunch of podcasts on macro stuff. Blockworks does a billion of them. Yeah, but don't worry. If you listen to those, you'll end up a bear. So you gotta know that going in so that you don't end up a bear. I don't care if you're bullish or bearish, but being able to form your own opinion, that's the end goal. But people that do nothing but talk macro are all bears. They're all dirty bears, Josh. I agree with you. They're doomer macro people. But just knowing the language and knowing what people are looking at definitely helps you understand what the hell is going on. If you listen to them, just know that you need to protect your beautiful, bullish beauty. Don't take their advice, air quotes here. Don't take their advice. Your beautiful, bullish innocence needs to be protected when you listen to the doomer bears. You'll learn all about the SPR and why it's the end of the world. What is it about macro that makes people perma bears? I don't know. I think all this cyclical stuff, the raining down of potential for bad makes you think it's imminent. Yeah, they're very pro -commodity, pro -being anti -market. That's their whole personality and identity. Now I'm thinking of Sven specifically, for those of you who know who that is. But the macro people will be wrong for years and years and years. And then we'll finally get a down move. And they'll be like, yes, I told you so. Now I've lost all my money and the market 10xed at that time. But I told you so. We would get a correction. But I like that about them. The macro people also generally don't like Bitcoin. Some of them do, certainly. But most of them don't. So that tells me we still got time. It's still early. There are very few Lynn Alden's of the world where I simultaneously massively respect their macro analysis. And they don't discount crypto. She does discount everything but Bitcoin. But I'll forgive her for that. Because she's already really good at two things. That most people can't combine their goodness of that. Yeah, she's great. That's another easy listen as far as trying to pick up. She just wrote a book about money, too. I'm sure it's got some good macro stuff in there. There you go. So we'll stop that. Rate's up. Murray, I don't know what we're saying is like Michael Murray. But if he's a doomer bear, then yes. Yeah, this is a doomer bear that he was right at the right time on the right cycle as the media fell in love with such characters. So that carries a lot of weight. Like he can now be wrong for the rest of his life, but he was still right in 2008. But I respect people that have these opinions. I just think it's a lot easier to make money if you're a bull over the long period of time. I agree. Tripsy says he thinks the TA makes a better bear case than macro. I agree. I pay attention to the macro because it's kind of interesting. And having the ability to discuss it is powerful. But if all I do is pay attention to the TA, then I'd be fine. If you see the macro and you make this great bear case and then you see the chart and the chart looks like it wants to explode to the upside, don't make the trade. Not financial advice, but don't sell everything in that scenario. I wouldn't. But if the chart looks like doo -doo and the macro looks like doo -doo, then maybe it's just doo -doo. Well, knowing yields and rates helps you understand the DeFi angle a little bit. Knowing risk premium helps you understand like if I'm not getting paid an insane amount in DeFi right now, it's just not worth participating. You know? Yeah. Assuming a risk -free rate in U .S. government bonds, treasuries, whatever, you're not getting paid that differential in DeFi. Typically, you are seeking yield growth balance, right? There's some combination or you're looking for either or, but there's a balance of yield and growth. If your available yield today is high, so let's say you can earn 5 % in a money market or something like that, then two years ago, you could only earn 1%. Then your need for growth is even higher to make up for your annualized compounding year -on -year returns because when you're seeking growth, you're compounding that growth to make up for the lack of yield. So when the yield is higher, you need even more growth so people get less interested in the growth because the growth needs to be so severe to replace easy yield that's available today. So that's why risk assets that focus on growth look less attractive when yield is high. That's a general concept that can be useful. I always like to think about the extremes. So they used to say, Tina, there is nothing else when you're talking about allocating capital. So if there was no yield before, you get all this crazy VC shit and altcoins and NFTs. Because it's growth at all costs. Because that's it. That's the whole game, right? Now that there's a balance, it'd be much harder to create something like FTX in this environment where you can get a yield, you know? Yeah, there is demand for return on those dollars that's not just growth, that's not just bring it back to me more valuable. Did you hear that NFT story? The NFTs are 95 % worthless thing? Yeah. Yeah, there's some really good replies from NFT people that I thought were worthy. I've retweeted one of them. I don't remember who it was. I think it was the punk person that works, that does the streams all the time. Pink haired punk. You know, most of them always have been worthless is what they mentioned. And I think that they're doing a classic throw the baby out with the bathwater thing. Like the speculation on JPEGs was always going to pop. The underlying technology does have inherent value, it's just who's going to win from that. Like, will all the current market participants, collections, companies, whatever, will they all go away and then somebody will rise from the ashes and win the technology emergence where game the underlying technology can be taken advantage of to create real business value? I think that's what will happen, but which of us will be there to survive it? And then some stuff will get Lindy effects of art, digital art. There was product market fit, there is product market fit for that. But like, you can't just mint 10 ,000 pineapples and expect to make millions of dollars now when there's nothing else. If your denominator is infinity, then yeah, 95 % are useless.
The Breakdown
A highlight from Could Oil and a Gov't Shutdown Screw Up Powell's Plans?
"Welcome back to The Breakdown with me, NLW. It's a daily podcast on macro, Bitcoin, and the big picture power shifts remaking our world. What's going on, guys? It is Friday, September 22nd, and today we are talking oil, macro, everything that could throw the economy off. But before we get to that, if you are enjoying The Breakdown, please go subscribe to it, give it a rating, give it a review, or if you want to dive deeper into the conversation, come join us on the Breakers Discord. You can find a link at the show notes or go to bit .ly slash breakdown pod. All right, friends, well, we are sort of continuing the macro story today that we picked up around Powell and the FOMC this week. And one of the questions that Powell was asked was about risks that threatened to knock the economy off course. Two that he mentioned that we're going to spend a little time on today include oil prices and a potential government shutdown. Let's start with oil first. The price of crude oil has steadily increased over the past four months. From a low of around $70 in June, oil reached almost $90 a barrel for the US -based WTI benchmark contract and $95 per barrel and $95 per barrel for international Brent crude earlier this week. The price increase for crude has driven US gas prices back above $3 .80 per gallon, the highest level since last October. Overall, gas prices have ramped up by 20 % since the beginning of the year, according to AAA. Now, there are a number of factors all contributing to steadily increasing oil prices since the June lows. The first is OPEC+. The economic group of oil producing nations led by Saudi Arabia and Russia have recently curbed output. Production cuts, which were agreed to late last year, have been gradually implemented over the past six months. In July, Saudi Arabia voluntarily cut an additional 1 million barrels per day from its production quota, about 10 % of its previous output. Existing production cuts across OPEC have already been extended into next year and analysts expect Saudi Arabia to extend their voluntary cuts until March. On Thursday, Russia further constrained supply by banning the export of diesel and petrol. Russia is one of the world's largest suppliers of diesel alongside their status as producing around 12 % of the global supply of crude oil. The International Energy Agency said last year that Russian refineries produce, quote, roughly double the diesel needed to satisfy domestic demand and typically export half their annual production. Analyst opinions focused on the simplest explanation for the ban, retaliation for sanctions. Henning Gloestien of the Eurasia Group said, Russia wants to inflict pain on Europe and the U .S. and it looks like they're now repeating the playbook from gas and the oil market ahead of the winter months. They're showing that they're not finished using their power over energy markets. The Kremlin said the ban was temporary and aimed at addressing rising energy prices in domestic markets. However, they gave no timeline on when the ban might be lifted. U .S. and European policymakers have largely banned the importation of Russian refined fuel since February, which has required Russian supply to be routed through third party regions including Turkey, North Africa and Latin America. Now, OPEC cuts over the past year were predicated on a weakening demand profile heading into this year. At the time they were announced, recessions were expected across Europe and the U .S. China was an open question with the potential of reopening pushed back in the midst of additional pandemic waves. But since then, the European economy is sputtering along, albeit with dismal manufacturing data out of Germany. The sanctioning of Russian supply has caused European demand to be displaced to other regions with refining capacity, largely India and the Middle East. In the U .S., recession has been continuously pushed off into the future and oil demand is now back at all time highs with no signs of slowing. Although the Chinese economy has hit some turbulence recently, oil demand remains robust. Analysts expect China's oil demand to remain high as Beijing secures strategically important resources. What's more, analysts expect China's oil demand to remain high as Beijing secures strategically important resources in part to mitigate geopolitical risks as well as to shore up its manufacturing and transportation industries. So with oil prices spiking, many are wondering whether the White House will once again intervene in markets using the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Between November 2021 and September of last year, the White House authorized a number of SPR releases. The final policy saw one million barrels per day provided into the market over six months. A small amount of oil was restocked earlier this year, but the SPR still sits at a little over half its pre -pandemic level. Earlier this week, a headline circulated proclaiming that quote, Biden says depleting SPR is on the table. This was later found to be a hoax with no legitimate source, but it demonstrates how difficult high oil prices could be for the U .S. economy heading into election season. To wit, many saw the SPR release as a political decision rather than an economic decision heading into the 2022 midterms. In the private sector, U .S. oil inventories have recently hit 40 -year lows of 46 -day supply, well below the longer -term average of 65 days. And while August's inflation reports already showed a small uptick due to oil -related prices, the effect is expected to be more profound across this month. Dario Perkins, an economist at T .S. Lombard said, That said, it is important to keep these recent inflationary developments in context. We are not yet in danger of undoing 12 months of solid disinflationary progress, not even close. Others suggested that high oil prices would have a greater impact on growth rather than inflation. Maya Bhandari, head of multi -asset at BNP Paribas Asset Management said, It really impacts the growth side of the Goldilocks equation rather than the inflation side of things over the long term. Theory is that sustained high oil prices begin to eat into disposable income for households alongside higher costs of production for manufacturing and logistics. These combine to reduce growth and potentially tip the economy into recession. Overall, this situation in the oil markets has, to some, many parallels to the liquid natural gas spike in the winter of 2022. Prices in some markets rose more than tenfold, European energy companies scrambled to secure supply at any cost, and multiple firms went bankrupt due to the volatility in markets. This week, Bloomberg reported that the trading arm of French supplier Total Energies has played a major role in bidding up the price of U .S.-based oil. Their source claimed that the firm is paying a premium for physical U .S. barrels, pushing the spread against futures to levels not seen since last November. With all of that said, there are some signs that the oil market is beginning to cool off. On Thursday, Brent crude futures fell to $92 per barrel, which represented the third straight day of price declines, which is the longest streak in almost a month. Warren Patterson, head of Commodity Strategy at ING, said the Fed's hawkish messaging has quote, put some pressure on risk assets, including oil. The dollar index has risen by 0 .8 % since Chair Powell left the podium, a large enough move to weigh on asset markets. Patterson said he still expects Brent crude to move above the $100 mark in the near term, but that he doesn't anticipate the move will be sustainable. So that is the view on oil overall. The thing that I am definitely going to be watching more than anything else is the political dimension of this. We are now entering the period where everything, even more than usual, is going to be completely wrapped up in what it means for the election season. If prices at the pump keep trending up, it seems very likely that the Biden administration will be willing to do what it takes, including SPR releases, to get those prices down. But that's just something we're going to have to keep an eye on. Now what about that other factor that Powell mentioned? Well yes, indeed, my friends, the US government is once again hurtling towards a shutdown after efforts to pass a short term spending bill were scuttled on the House floor on Thursday. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy attempted to marshal Republicans to vote through a package to keep the government funded past the end of September. Closed door negotiations continued late into Wednesday night, but were apparently unconvincing. The bill currently being considered is the $886 billion Defense Appropriations Act. The bill was stifled in the House after five GOP representatives refused to allow debate to begin by voting against a preliminary procedural rule. Democrats also voted against the measure and appeared to taunt Republicans apparently reveling in seeing the GOP's slim majority descend into chaos. Among the Republican dissenters was Marjorie Taylor Greene, who opposed the inclusion of $300 million in funding to the Ukrainian war effort. On Thursday, Politico reported that Pentagon sources have said Ukrainian operations have been exempted from any shutdown, making that part of the dispute rather moot. McCarthy sent House members home on Thursday night to return to Washington on Tuesday. He told reporters after the failed vote, quote, two people flipped, so I got to figure out how to fix that. That wasn't the impression they had given us. Now, this was McCarthy's third attempt at bringing the bill to the House floor. The current proposal on the table is a 31 -day stopgap funding mechanism to forestall a shutdown to begin next weekend. McCarthy remarked on the change in tone in Congress among that extreme element of the Republican Party, stating that, quote, this is a whole new concept of individuals that just want to burn the whole place down. Now, even if a 31 -day stopgap is passed in the House, it seems unlikely to make its way through the Democrat -controlled Senate. The bill includes a 30 percent temporary cut to domestic agencies and immigration law changes, neither of which are likely to get the seal of approval from Dems. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said instead of decreasing the chance of a shutdown, Speaker McCarthy is actually increasing it by wasting time on extremist proposals that cannot become law in the Senate. House Democrat leader Hakeem Jeffries remarked that the situation was playing out as a, quote, Republican civil war. Now, if it comes to pass, this would be the 11th government shutdown since 1980. The logic is that hard -line positions that don't enjoy support in the Congress can be put directly to the American people by shutting down the government and drawing attention to the impasse. Republican Ralph Norman said last week that, quote, we're going to have a shutdown. We believe in what we're doing. The jury will be the country. Still, the record on government shutdowns doesn't really support that strategy. Not one of the 10 previous shutdowns resulted in the dissenting group extracting concessions. Typically, the American people quickly turn on the party they view as blocking access to government services over a petty squabble. Alex Conant, a Republican strategist, said, This is such a dumb fight because there's no principle that we're standing on here. It's just bad tactics. While the dispute is nominally over excessive government spending, with Republican dissenters pushing for funding to be reduced back to 2022 levels, the underlying problem is, of course, the level of discord within the Republican Party. McCarthy was voted in as House Speaker after a record 15 attempts. The process took four days and frequently descended into a farce. This was only the second time in the post -Civil War era that a House Speaker had failed to be elected on the first attempt. Conant noted the terrible optics of a government shutdown of the Republicans' own making heading into election season, stating that, quote, Biden didn't win because of his political skills and soaring oratory. He won because Republicans blew themselves up with Trump. I'm afraid we're seeing history repeat itself, with the GOP once again helping Biden by shooting themselves in the foot. Of course, never one to shy away from controversy, Trump fanned the flames on Wednesday, posting that, quote, Republicans in Congress can and must defund all aspects of Crooked Joe Biden's weaponized government that refuses to close the border and treats half the country as enemies of the state. He added that, quote, This is also the last chance to defund these political prosecutions against me and other patriots. They failed on the debt limit they must not fail now. Use the power of the person to defend the country. Now, zooming out and trying to get away from the politics of the situation, which obviously is not the focus of this show. The reason that this was brought up at last week's FOMC press conference is that a government shutdown would halt the publication of government data. This would include employment, inflation and growth statistics, which are currently playing a key role in guiding Fed policy. Now, given how much the Fed has said over and over again, their policy is going to be driven by data, presumably not having access to that data would be a fairly big deal. Yet in spite of that, Powell tried to put on a brave face, saying, If there is a government shutdown and it lasts through the next meeting, then it's possible we wouldn't be getting some of the data that we would ordinarily get and we would just have to deal with that. Now, by way of some history, the longest ever government shutdown lasted 35 days. The dispute was around funding for the border wall and quickly turned public sentiment against the Trump administration. Republicans controlled both the House and the Senate, but the administration failed to convince their own party to fund the wall. At the time, Democrat Senator Jon Tester called it the most stupid shutdown I have ever seen in my life. However, if this week's display is anything to go by, that 2019 shutdown could soon have some competition for that title. Now, what does this all have to do with the crypto sphere? Well, I think in many ways these are just exemplary of the state of politics in general. And given that, perhaps it's not surprising that former Senator Pat Toomey is not optimistic about the chances of crypto legislation being passed during this Congress. Just prior to retiring from Congress at the beginning of the year, Toomey introduced his own crypto bill, which focused on stablecoin regulations. Now, the House currently has two major crypto bills eligible to be brought for a vote. One would establish a stablecoin framework while the other introduces more broad crypto regulations. While speaking at a Georgetown Law Seminar on Thursday, however, Toomey said, I don't see a path forward in the Senate regardless of how the vote goes in the House. He added that of the two, he sees the stablecoin legislation as having the best shot. The sticking point will likely be Senate Banking Committee Chairman Sherrod Brown. While Brown has been outspoken about the risks of crypto and the need to bring the industry to heel, he has so far remained extremely quiet on exactly what form of legislation would meet his approval. And of course, any crypto legislation would need the support of Democratic senators to pass a vote to become law. Still, during an interview on Thursday, Coinbase Chief Policy Officer Faryar Shirzad said that she thinks that Brown's lack of commitment to a legislative position might actually be a good thing. Shirzad said, Now, last week, Brown wrote a letter to head regulators at multiple agencies urging them to use their existing powers to crack down on non -compliant crypto firms. This of course seems to be the clear intention, at least at the SEC. On Tuesday, the head of that agency's crypto assets and cyber unit, David Hirsch, warned that more enforcement actions would be coming against crypto intermediaries, including DeFi protocols. Still, Toomey, who serves now as an advisor to Coinbase, views stablecoin legislation as the solvable problem. At the moment, Democrats are pushing for the Fed to serve a central role in regulating issuers rather than granting oversight power to state regulators. This preference is believed to be driven by the White House. Toomey said, He thinks that senior Democrats will get on board once the White House is satisfied with the stablecoin proposal. Although that proposal might have to wait until after the election, as Toomey said in the next Congress, I think it's quite possible to get something done.
Crypto Banter
A highlight from Make 1 ETH In JUST 1 Hour! How I Did It!
"So we're dealing with the red day the hangover from last night's FOMC meeting It's like a delayed reaction to what Jerome Powell said last night We're gonna have to talk about what Jerome Powell said because at the time when he was speaking Nothing happened to markets But afterwards what we realized is exactly this we realized that what Jerome Powell did last night was he may have actually broken the market What is it that he said that actually scared people and why is it that right now if we look at Bitcoin? Here we are. We are at twenty six thousand five hundred and forty. You remember before FOMC last night. We were at twenty seven thousand four hundred We thought we were gonna get a pump We also touched the top of the Bollinger Bands and now we're gonna come down if we start coming down again to the bottom of the Bollinger Bands we could go back down to Twenty five thousand one hundred and fifty five. So what did he do? What did Powell say? What did Powell do that has set off this reaction that has set off the Dixie look at the Dixie The Dixie is now had one two, three, four, five six, seven eight nine We are in the tenth green weekly candle for the Dixie and to make matters actually even worse if you go into the daily the Dixie has just had a golden cross now You know what a golden cross is the golden cross is the opposite of the death cross When you have a death cross usually prices continue to go down when you have the golden cross That's when prices usually go up and I'll take you to the last time that we had this golden cross Look what happened to the Dixie. So what did Powell do? Why is the market responding the way the markets responding we need to talk about that I'm also going to show you something now and then I'm going to tell you that I'm going to tell you why I'm showing it To you so first of all I want you to watch this because this is probably the most important clip that you will see today Channel where we critique attack and under. Hello there you awakening wonders now This isn't the usual type of video we make on this channel where we critique attack and undermine the news in all its corruption Because in this story, I am the news I've received two extremely disturbing letters or a letter and an email one from a mainstream media TV company one from a newspaper listing a litany of Extremely egregious and aggressive attacks as well as some pretty stupid stuffs like my community festival should be stopped that I shouldn't So that's right That's Russell brand and that's the beginning of something that he said and we're gonna talk about it And I know you don't know it now But I'm gonna show you why that is the only Reason in the world that you need to go out and actually buy a Bitcoin today It's the most important nature actually gonna do I'm gonna link it back to the Russell brand story. That's gonna be Saying that we must talk about today This is a story that that cut me deep and we have to spend some time talking about Russell brand Getting potentially cancelled and why that means that you and I need to buy Bitcoin absolutely immediately Then I'm going to show you a brilliant brilliant brilliant trading to the training tool that's gonna change your life I'm gonna show you how I made one East in less than one hour and you can make one East in less than one hour Too I want to talk about a new blockchain the blockchain is that blockchain over there, which is a combination of Solana Cosmo Celestia and Bullrun or be a catalyst for the next bull run then lastly if you want a hundred bucks for free what you need to do is stay tuned until the end of the show and So to get the show going I want to thank the community who sent this to us Bull runs coming back bull runs coming back bull runs coming back bull runs coming back Bull runs coming back bull runs coming back I need crypto banter Give me crypto banter I need crypto answers Hey Hey Go Stack it up on my nose I'm getting obese from this East I've been buying more Sip coffee bean on my screens The crypto show I'm a bull under gold I'm turning these bears into ghosts Snap at school That's the crash course Crypto man runs in a fast Porsche So much news and research I'm just glad for it Spewing all this alpha we go mad for it Crypto banter I need crypto banter Give me crypto banter I need crypto answers You like it? Let me know in the comments if you like it I'd make it Obviously community members sent it to us Thank you thank you thank you If you were the people that sent it to us We will give you guys a thing I mean initially I didn't like it But then the whole day I was like Crypto banter baby Crypto answers Someone says this song is terrible Yeah well you let me know what you think Listen first of all I want to apologize to you guys I want to apologize On behalf of Jerome Powell For giving us the most boring FOMC Meeting of our lives I feel that we all wasted about two hours Of our time last night In fact the most exciting Part of the whole event last night Was watching the Subscriber count on our new channel So this is our new channel Called Crypto Banter Plus If you're not already subscribed to Crypto Banter Plus Go and subscribe to Crypto Banter Plus Because we're gonna have a whole lot of Trading videos here Annie's trading videos My trading videos Sheldon's trading videos And a whole lot more content here And as you subscribe What you'll see Is that we've made this little counter To see how everybody subscribes How do you subscribe? There's a link below It's a top link Click on that link Go to the channel Subscribe to the channel You're gonna miss out Because yesterday The FOMC that we did We actually watched it here On Crypto Banter Plus So this is where a lot more content Is gonna happen On Crypto Banter Plus So be there Join us This is where a lot of stuff Is actually gonna happen And the most exciting thing about last night Was actually just watching the subscriber count It was the only thing that was going up and down Anyway be there as it may Today unfortunately Things aren't so good We are dealing with a delayed reaction A hangover There we go See you guys are subscribing We are dealing with a hangover We're dealing with a delayed reaction From what Powell did Or what Powell said last night And we need to understand Why the market reacted The way that it reacted And that's what we're gonna be doing today We're also gonna be talking about Russell Brand And how Russell Brand is actually getting cancelled And the lengths that governments are going to To cancel him Why are they trying to cancel him And why is that a reason Why you and I need to buy Bitcoin immediately So listen If you're not already a subscriber to this channel Subscribe to this channel If you're not a subscriber to Banta Plus Go and subscribe to Banta Plus I see you guys subscribing to Banta Plus Thank you, thank you, thank you Let's get this show on the road We've got a lot to talk about today As we stand today We're still positive For the month of September Remember I said we're gonna be positive For the month of September We are still 3 % up Even though It's not looking good out there It's not looking good 26 ,570 Bubbles Are absolutely, absolutely red If Benjamin Cowen is right He says Get this Let's change the scene here Let's make it look more elegant How cool is that So in 2019 After the first 20 days of September Bitcoin was up 6 % But by the end of the month Bitcoin was down almost 14 % From its monthly open In 2023 After 20 days Bitcoin is up 5 % Wake me up When September You know what I mean Wake me up in September And so Question is Are we gonna follow this pattern Or are we gonna follow the pattern That I said Where we continue to go up I do have one little bit of good news For you guys Before we start talking about the FOMC The one little bit of good news That I have for you Is that the Mt.
The Breakdown
A highlight from The Hawkish Halt: Why the Market Finally Believes "Higher for Longer"
"Welcome back to The Breakdown with me and LW. It's a daily podcast on macro, Bitcoin and the big picture power shifts remaking our world. What's going on, guys? It is Thursday, September 21st, and today we are going macro talking about the FOMC conference, what it means, where in the cycle we are. But before we get to all of that, if you're enjoying The Breakdown, please go subscribe to it, give it a rating, give it a review. Or if you want to dive deeper into the conversation, come join us on the Breakers Discord. You can find a link in the show notes or go to bit .ly slash breakdown pod. Well, friends, hallelujah, we have an episode that is not about Binance or the SEC. Yes, today we are talking macro. And I have to say, it feels like we are in the culmination of a phase. We know that we are close to the top from an interest rate perspective, but we don't know if we're actually there. We don't know how real economic conditions are going to change things. We certainly don't know when we're going to start heading the other direction and having rates come down. And we're still living in this weird limbo where things don't feel great, but we aren't in a recession. And so you take all of these factors together. And I think that people were watching this FOMC meeting just a little bit more closely than we have for the last few. The TLDR on what actually happened is that Federal Reserve officials decided to hold rates steady between 5 .25 and 5 .5%. Now, this is the second straight meeting with no change in policy settings, with the Fed funds rate remaining at 22 -year highs. And because there is always a key word or a key phrase when it comes to these FOMC meetings, this one was definitely proceed carefully. During his press conference, Fed chair Jerome Powell emphasized that despite strong economic data since the last meeting, the FOMC were in a position to, you guessed it, proceed carefully. Now, this phrase was repeated six times throughout media questioning, always to some extent around an assertion that the committee didn't need to make any decisions quite yet about what was coming next. Talking about the committee, Powell said, Really what people are saying is, let's see how the data come in. They want to be convinced. They want to be careful not to jump to a conclusion. Fed whisperer Nick Timiros, chief economics correspondent at the Wall Street Journal, said, Powell used the words proceed carefully six times during Wednesday's news conference, a sign of heightened caution about lifting rates. Forward guidance host Jack Farley said, The last time Powell used this language in his speech before taking questions was March 2023, and this was in the context of monitoring potential tightening of credit conditions post -SVB. So, adding a little more meat to this proceed carefully bone, Powell stressed that taking no action right now was the most prudent choice at this stage of the inflation fight. He said, Inflation has moderated somewhat since the middle of last year, and longer -term inflation expectations appear to remain well anchored. Further, he said, As we get closer to the stance of monetary policy that we think is appropriate to bring inflation down to 2 % over time, the risks become more two -sided and the risk of over tightening and the risk of under tightening becomes more equal. I think that the natural common sense thing to do is, as you approach that, you move a little more slowly as you get closer to it. And that's what we're doing. And you get here kind of why I'm saying that we're at the crescendo at this stage culmination kind of moment. But what's difficult for people is, of course, that what Powell is doing as we get closer to coming into the station is he's reducing the speed. Now, alongside the rate decision, the meeting also included the publication of the Quarterly Summary of Economic Projections, or SEP. The SEP contains a range of forecasts from FOMC members on the future path of rate policy, known affectionately as the dot plot, as well as a range of other economic projections. The dot plot showed that 12 of the 19 Fed officials had penciled in one additional rate hike by the end of the year, meaning effectively a split decision on whether the Fed should call an end to their tightening cycle. Now, when asked about rates and whether we're in restrictive territory, Powell said, The fact that we decided to maintain the policy rate at this meeting doesn't mean that we've decided that we have or have not at this time reached that stance of monetary policy that we're seeking. If you looked at the SEP, you will see that a majority of participants believe that it is more likely than not that it will be appropriate for us to raise rates one more time in the two remaining meetings this year. Now, beyond that specific note around one more hike, the main takeaway from this set of forecasts was also that rates would remain higher for longer. Rate expectations for 2024 were bumped up slightly, with the median forecast coming in at 5 .1%. And this represented a 50 basis point increase from the forecast published in the June SEP. Putting it a different way, that means that only two rate cuts are expected to be necessary next year, rather than the four which were previously forecast. Core PCE inflation was forecast to fall to 3 .3 % to close this year and moderate further to 2 .5 % across 2024. With inflation forecast to moderate faster than the FOMC expects to cut rates, that would signal an intention to hold the Fed funds rate in restrictive territory until at least the end of next year. Rounding out the numbers from the SEP, GDP growth is forecast to moderate, finishing the year at 2 .1 % and reducing to 1 .5 % for next year. And unemployment is forecast to only rise slightly alongside this growth slowdown, leveling out at 4 .1 % over the next two years from its current level of 3 .8%. Now from here, let's get into some of the topics that were most hot buttoned and ran throughout the presentation and the press conference after. One of the big topics was, of course, the fabled soft landing. This set of projections is a long way from the dire forecast from just a few months ago. At the August meeting, Powell disclosed that Fed staff had been predicting a recession. This time, while definitely not a booming economic projection, the small uptick in unemployment while growth and inflation moderate were essentially forecasting a soft landing. When asked if a soft landing is his baseline expectation, Powell stated, Still, Powell made sure to emphasize where the FOMC's real focus was.
Markets Daily Crypto Roundup
A highlight from Crypto Update | Relief in Bitcoin Pressure, Stablecoin Concerns, and South Korea's Offshore Holdings
"This episode of Markets Daily is sponsored by Kraken. It's Thursday, September 21st, 2023, and this is Markets Daily from CoinDesk. My name is Noelle Acheson, CoinDesk collaborator and author of the Crypto's Macro Now newsletter on Substat. On today's show, we're talking about some relief in potential Bitcoin selling pressure, renewed concerns about crypto's largest stablecoin, and South Korean offshore crypto holdings. So you don't miss an episode, be sure to follow the podcast on your platform of choice. And just a reminder, CoinDesk is a news source and does not provide investment advice. Now, a markets roundup. Assets around the world reacted with surprise yesterday at the FOMC statement that left U .S. rates unchanged, but that also loudly signaled that U .S. rates will remain higher for longer. Among the more surprising moves was the lifting of the FOMC projection for the Fed funds rate at the end of 2024. This has moved up to 5 .1 % from 4 .6%, effectively taking two rate cuts off the trading at $26 ,415, according to CoinDesk indices. Ether was down 3 .3%, trading at $1 ,577. Despite declining correlations, macro sentiment still weighs heavily on crypto markets. Higher rates weaken the short -term investment case by reducing overall monetary liquidity. This especially hurts long duration, high volatility assets. A stronger dollar further impacts the crypto market by pushing up the denominator of the most often traded pair, which is Bitcoin in U .S. dollar terms. And low -risk yields of over 5%, such as those available in some U .S. treasuries and money market funds, are likely to incentivize a preference for safer assets. In traditional markets, U .S. stocks and bonds moved to a higher -for -longer stance. The S &P 500 closed down 0 .9 % yesterday and looks weak in trading today. It is currently down a further 1 % from yesterday's close. The Nasdaq is faring somewhat worse, down 1 .4%, while the Dow Jones is down 0 .6%. Bond yields shot up yesterday in reaction to the FOMC messaging, with both the two -year and ten -year Treasury yields reaching their highest levels since 2006 and 2007, respectively. After falling in sympathy with their U .S. cousins at the open today, U .K. stocks have largely been recovering this morning, with the FTSE 100 up almost 0 .5 % from the open. Investors appear to be encouraged by the Bank of England's decision to cause rate hikes for the first time in nearly two years, despite inflation at 6 .7%. Concern about the state of the U .K. economy no doubt weighed on that decision. Last week, we saw U .K. GDP and industrial production data amid notably worse than expected. And while inflation is still a serious problem, it seems to be heading in the right direction. European stocks have unfortunately not had a similar boost. Both the DAX and the EuroStock 600 are down over 1 .1 % on the day. In Asia, Japan's Nikkei index followed Wall Street down, dropping 1 .4%. The Bank of Japan announces its decision on rates tomorrow, but consensus forecasts are signaling no change. China stocks were also weak. The Shanghai Composite fell by almost 0 .8%, while the Hang Seng fell almost 1 .3%. In commodities, the Brent crude benchmark slid earlier this morning, as concerns about global economic growth weakened the demand outlook. At one stage, the price had dropped to below $93 per barrel. It has since rebounded, and is currently just above $94. Gold took on board the climb in the U .S. dollar by retreating off its multi -week highs. Earlier today, it was trading at around $1 ,925 per ounce. Stay tuned. After the break, we'll take a look at Bitcoin's sellering pressure, weather concern again, and offshore crypto holdings.
CoinDesk Podcast Network
A highlight from MARKETS DAILY: Crypto Update | Relief in Bitcoin Pressure, Stablecoin Concerns, and South Korea's Offshore Holdings
"This episode of Markets Daily is sponsored by Kraken. It's Thursday, September 21st, 2023, and this is Markets Daily from CoinDesk. My name is Noelle Acheson, CoinDesk collaborator and author of the Crypto's Macro Now newsletter on Substat. On today's show, we're talking about some relief in potential Bitcoin selling pressure, renewed concerns about crypto's largest stablecoin, and South Korean offshore crypto holdings. So you don't miss an episode, be sure to follow the podcast on your platform of choice. And just a reminder, CoinDesk is a news source and does not provide investment advice. Now, a markets roundup. Assets around the world reacted with surprise yesterday at the FOMC statement that left U .S. rates unchanged, but that also loudly signaled that U .S. rates will remain higher for longer. Among the more surprising moves was the lifting of the FOMC projection for the Fed funds rate at the end of 2024. This has moved up to 5 .1 % from 4 .6%, effectively taking two rate cuts off the trading at $26 ,415, according to CoinDesk indices. Ether was down 3 .3%, trading at $1 ,577. Despite declining correlations, macro sentiment still weighs heavily on crypto markets. Higher rates weaken the short -term investment case by reducing overall monetary liquidity. This especially hurts long duration, high volatility assets. A stronger dollar further impacts the crypto market by pushing up the denominator of the most often traded pair, which is Bitcoin in U .S. dollar terms. And low -risk yields of over 5%, such as those available in some U .S. treasuries and money market funds, are likely to incentivize a preference for safer assets. In traditional markets, U .S. stocks and bonds moved to a higher -for -longer stance. The S &P 500 closed down 0 .9 % yesterday and looks weak in trading today. It is currently down a further 1 % from yesterday's close. The Nasdaq is faring somewhat worse, down 1 .4%, while the Dow Jones is down 0 .6%. Bond yields shot up yesterday in reaction to the FOMC messaging, with both the two -year and ten -year Treasury yields reaching their highest levels since 2006 and 2007, respectively. After falling in sympathy with their U .S. cousins at the open today, U .K. stocks have largely been recovering this morning, with the FTSE 100 up almost 0 .5 % from the open. Investors appear to be encouraged by the Bank of England's decision to cause rate hikes for the first time in nearly two years, despite inflation at 6 .7%. Concern about the state of the U .K. economy no doubt weighed on that decision. Last week, we saw U .K. GDP and industrial production data amid notably worse than expected. And while inflation is still a serious problem, it seems to be heading in the right direction. European stocks have unfortunately not had a similar boost. Both the DAX and the EuroStock 600 are down over 1 .1 % on the day. In Asia, Japan's Nikkei index followed Wall Street down, dropping 1 .4%. The Bank of Japan announces its decision on rates tomorrow, but consensus forecasts are signaling no change. China stocks were also weak. The Shanghai Composite fell by almost 0 .8%, while the Hang Seng fell almost 1 .3%. In commodities, the Brent crude benchmark slid earlier this morning, as concerns about global economic growth weakened the demand outlook. At one stage, the price had dropped to below $93 per barrel. It has since rebounded, and is currently just above $94. Gold took on board the climb in the U .S. dollar by retreating off its multi -week highs. Earlier today, it was trading at around $1 ,925 per ounce. Stay tuned. After the break, we'll take a look at Bitcoin's sellering pressure, weather concern again, and offshore crypto holdings.
The Bitboy Crypto Podcast
A highlight from Interest Rate Hikes FINISHED?! (Crypto War NOT Over)
"Welcome to Discover Crypto! It is September 20th. It's 11 .30am. How are we all doing? We got Drew and AJ on the ones and twos today, folks. We're going to talk about the Fed. We're going to talk about what are they going to be saying with the interest rate hikes. And also we're going to be talking about Bitcoin and other cryptos. AJ, how are you doing today? I'm doing great, man. Another day in the life. Let's get it. Drew, how are you doing? Oh, just great. You know, can't complain. Well, you can. You can. You complain when you get home. You'd like, you know, just really vent to your two -year -old. Yeah, that's where I do it. Deezy, did you see the tweet that went out yesterday about the show I'm doing with from George from Cryptos R Us? What? Yeah, yeah. Yeah, he's with Blockchain Boy and Neutron. Joshua Jay. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah. So we're all like, it's for crew, like, plus, you know, and basically we're all doing something different. I believe, like, Josh is doing like a news kind of show and Blockchain Boys. I'm not really sure what Blockchain Boys doing, but I know the videos are going to start coming out here pretty soon. We're still like brainstorming my concept, but I have a really good, like, rough idea of what I'm doing. But it's going to be really interesting to see how, like, where this goes. And I'm just fun to excited to do something different, you know? And I'm excited. We got Frankie Candles doing the charts today. I see Frankie getting ready in his neon square. He's in his, like, little neon area. I don't know if, oh, he can hear me. He's showing some recognition and anticipation of what Deezy is going to say next. Yeah, we saw the Donald Trump Jr. tweets. It looks like he got hacked. Also, Rob, you're popping it. Hey, we're going to see you back. Can't wait till you come back. All right, let's just get right into crypto. Marc Kepson's Drew is done. Am I too tall? Am I too tall? Too tall for the camera? Look, I got to stand. I got to do these shows a lot, you know? I take the shoes off. So I shrink, you know? They come in. I'm like 6 '11", and I take the shoes off. Then I drop back down to 6 '3". I got the Tom Cruise lifts. All right, Bitcoin is falling a little bit, folks. We were in the green this morning when I first woke up. Now we are down 0 .6%, and Ethereum is down 1 .3%. But XRP looks pretty good. XRP is up. It is up 0 .8 % on the day so far. Meanwhile, Cardano, I woke up this morning. It was up, but now it's down. It is down 0 .7%. Dogecoin down 1 .3%. TonCoin finally cooling off a little bit for the week here. It is down 1 .2%. Litecoin has taken a little bit of a beating, folks. Litecoin is down 5%. We talked about Litecoin a little bit yesterday on ATB. I highly recommend you check that out after this stream. All right, let's look at the top gainers. Then we're going to look at the top losers. You know, I have a streak of keeping my coins in the losers, but not today, folks. I'm feeling good. In fact, maybe I'll have a coin in the top 10. Who knows? All right, here we have Caspa leading the way. Caspa is just on fire, folks. The people who bought Caspa at $0 .01, $0 .02, looking good. Just put in a higher high too. You got past that last one, yep. All right, we are now above a nickel, and it looks like maybe price discovery mode for a Caspa. XDC is up 4 .3%. Maker is up. Radix is up. Aave is up. I have a coin in the ties. A little Solana. I think maybe I have some Arbitrum. Maybe. I'm not even sure I have to check. Then we have, you know, XRP is up 0 .8%. We got gold. Gold's moving to the upside. The graph moving to the upside, even though Bitcoin and ETH are down. Okay, so it's not all blood in the streets, but hopefully, it's not going to be blood in Deasy's wallet, guys. And again, I promise you, I do not check this ahead of time. I kind of like being surprised. I like discovering it with you. So let's discover cryptos, Deasy's coins in here. I'm looking good today. All right, I don't know how long the streak has been continuing. I don't know when's the last. I think I last held Litecoin in 2021. Never had Thor, Phrax, eCash, or I know Frankie likes to trade Adam. I like to trade Eve. So maybe we'll talk to him about the Adam is falling 4 % here. Litecoin down 5%. Thor chained down 5%. Any of these coins, you know, peak it. Well, if you go at it, I do have two in the top 10. I got two in the top 10. Just, you know, just to make it feel good. But any of these screaming at you here? Yeah, Thor, Litecoin, Phrax. Not surprised really to see. I mean, everything kind of came up yesterday. I'm still kind of sticking to the theory that the pump we're seeing could possibly be a bull trap. I think, you know, when we get into the FOMC news, the pauses that is likely coming is going to be bullish for the sentiment. I'm just still like kind of macro worried based off of the stock market sharks. Actually, the Algorand, you know, down 2 .8%. That one's kind of obviously yelling at me a little bit. I have a theory coming up, but I'm not going to say it right now. But I'm making a video about it, about Algorand. So stay tuned for that. OK, so you're going to create more? I'm going to create more. I create more crypto content every day and some of it's about Algorand. But I like how it's a period. Create more. No exclamation point. Just create. It's more like create more. Oh, OK. Great. More. Great. Great. Yeah. All right. Well, we're going to create some stories here about the feds. What are they doing? I don't know if we've ever had an article from this news organization. ABC. Shout out to Mickey Mouse and the Disney crew here. Fed to decide on a rate hike. Testing optimism about a soft landing as inflation rises again. Upon announcing the Fed Reserve's latest rate hike decision in July, Jerome Powell spoke out a lectern in Washington, DC for a half hour before he dropped a bombshell. The Central Bank staff has abandoned its forecast of a recession. Staff at the Fed, in other words, now expect the Central Bank to achieve a soft landing, an outcome in which the US brings down inflation while avoiding a downturn. Inflation has ticked up for two consecutive months, reversing some of the progress made in the effort to bring price increases down to normal levels. Meanwhile, oil prices have soared, threatening to push inflation even higher. Well, they got like moving ads. Whoa, whoa, what's going on here? Calm down, ABC. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the Fed to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged, affording policymakers time to weigh their next move as a rapid series of previous rate hikes take full effect. I was looking at Caleb Franzen's tweets. We're at 99 % on the prediction market unchanged today, right? Have you been looking at the, when is the next one? Is it November? I can pull the calendar. I'm pretty sure it's the end of October. I think it's like maybe on Halloween. Let me double check. Oh, on Halloween is going to be spooky. Okay, Drew, are you going to give out candy this Halloween? Absolutely. You know, but actually I'll be doing candied apples. Okay, I'm going to be giving out pamphlets on inflation to children. Yeah, you know, you could have got Reese's pieces, but blame Jerome Powell. You can take advantage of the time and the season to teach your children about tax. Tax them. Like attacking kids for their pillowcases of candy? Taxing them heavily. Yeah, take 33 % of every Snickers bar they get. That's right. Yeah, that's just the way it is. Why wait? Welcome to America, you know? And yeah, the next FOMC is October 31st, November 1st, so. Okay, okay. October 31st. All right, all right. Halloween, what's Jerome Powell going to dress up as? Alex from A Clockwork Orange. Pat, do you want us to dress up on the channel? I might be willing to dress up in a costume. I might be willing. You know, every - I could break out the green spandex, go old school. You know, every Halloween, AJ disappears and a Mr. Meeseeks just shows up. Okay, I heard existence is pain though. Existence is pain. We're not fumbling around for meaning here, Deezy. All right. Well, I'm fumbling around for this rate of inflation. It eases slightly 6 .7 % despite the oil prices surging. You know, like we said, I think the oil is going to be a leading indicator, so inflation will trickle down from the oil prices. If you want to think about it, it's going to cost more money to get those bananas to drive from point A to point B because they're going to have to spend more in the gas tank. This is going to be - It's just give it a while, let it roll out to the rest of the economy. Namely, food. Oil prices really, really like to impact food prices a couple months down the line. Well, we're looking at the ONS as the Office for National Statistics, and they said the consumer price index measure slowed in the 12 months to August from the 6 .8 figure reported the previous month thanks to food rising at a weaker pace during the month compared to August 22. During the X minute, I have a tweet about Canadian food prices, and I just kind of look at where they've gone over the past 20 years. It is shocking. It is shocking. I used Bard. I was like, this doesn't feel right for the price. I went to a Canadian grocery store, and I went low. I went low. There's expensive eggs and cheap eggs. I typed in the cheap egg price. It was still very scary. All right, well, we have predictions. Jerome Powell's got his ideas. You notice I was thinking about this BlackRock. What is BlackRock thinking about all this? BlackRock and others predict the Fed's next move. What does it mean for Bitcoin though? According to Marilyn Watson, is a BlackRock's head of global fundamental income strategy. The central bank's federal funds target rate will remain roughly the same until the end of the year going through its September, November, and December meetings. For the record, I think the economic data has consistently surprised to the upside, she said. That includes GDP, the unemployment rate, and the labor market. Beware, beware of recession. The analyst has previously argued that Bitcoin's price is macroeconomic determined by conditions, including its four -year cycles, which I am still a firm believer in for this cycle. Might be less of an effect of the previous one, but I'm still a believer in the four -year cycle, going to push Bitcoin to the new high. I do think we'll set in a new all -time high. I don't think we're going to hit a quarter million dollars in two years, but I think we're going to flirt with $100K, which they do not believe are related to the Bitcoin halving. So they're saying the four -year cycle is not related. I don't know what they're saying here. Risk assets go lower in recessions. So I'd expect Bitcoin would not perform well in that environment. It has not seen a real recession in its existence. It was birthed out of a recession, but yeah, hasn't really gone through one from the beginning stages to the end there. Yeah, there's never been a Bitcoin bull run during a phase of quantitative tightening. We've always been quantitatively easing the money supply anytime Bitcoin goes up into the right. And that obviously is what it takes. I think they're kind of leaning into if we're in a recession, and that lines up with the four -year cycle. But just so far, we're three for three with the having idea playing out. And the trend hasn't broken yet, so that's why I always say sticking to November 25 as a benchmark, but that's just a benchmark. It could be behind that. It could be in front of that. We don't have a crystal ball, but we can go off the pattern that we've seen before. All right. Well, speaking of quantitative tightening, we also have calfskin tightening, the tightest calfskin in the entire world. I don't care if you have a baby cow jacket for an extra small on an 800 -pound man, there is no tighter calfskin than the man I'm looking at right now. That is Frankie Candles. Frankie Candles, welcome back. How's it doing? Does it feel good? It feels good. The calfskin is tight, and so is Bitcoin's price action. But yeah, I don't want to waste time here. Let's go ahead and jump right into the charts here. Now, here we are. Now, obviously, I talk about this all the time. I don't typically trade on newsdays like this. It is usually a complete washing machine. Usually the shorts get wrecked, then the longs get wrecked, or the longs get wrecked, and then the shorts get wrecked. So I don't typically trade. Now, I am in a few trades right now. I am in this Bitcoin long right now. I have profits locked in on this trade and my stop loss is at my entry. So kind of how I am playing this today is I'm going to be holding my long. I am long from about $25 ,000 to $50 ,000 just below this range. And again, I have taken profits on that stop loss at break even. And then I am also in a short position from somewhere up here. I am slightly in profit on the short position. So I am long up and now I am in this small short position that is in slight profit. However, this is kind of how I'm playing this today, DZ. Because basically, like I said, I never recommend people trade on these newsdays just because of the complete unpredictable volatility that you're likely to see. Now, the last FOMC meeting, I believe, was on the 25th, 26th of July. I believe someone could correct me if I'm wrong on that. But we actually have seen a few FOMC meetings where we didn't really have too much happen. And I've been telling people that we are likely in that kind of boring accumulation phase of the bear market. A lot of times, if you go back to at least the 2017 or 2018, 2019 bear market, we had that bear market rally. And once we topped off at that point, we kind of just bled out. And for the most part, if you kind of just ignore this panic wick from March of 2020, which was obviously a Black Swan event, we kind of just wiggled sideways. We got that big bear market rally, we topped off, bled out a little bit, and then we just kind of went sideways again with the exception of that panic wick. And I do think we are in somewhat of a similar situation here where the rest of this bear market may not be the most exciting thing ever. But for today, basically how I'm handling this, DZ, is I'm going to be kind of...
Tech Path Crypto
A highlight from 1261. Fed Meeting vs. Crypto LIVE | Jerome Powell + Inflation Sentiment Analysis
"All right, so welcome in everybody to the live stream today. We'll be breaking down the FOMC meeting and also talk a little bit about what Chair Powell has decided to do along with the Board of Governors and break down all that, what kind of implications this might have on the market for you. It's going to be a good one. My name is Paul Beyer and welcome back in the Tech Path. All right, so joining, of course, today we will be doing our normal live stream where we air the Fed meeting. And it's not necessarily the meeting, but it's the remarks. It's the press conference after the meeting, which obviously we've got news in now that there is no rate hike. So whether you think that's a good thing or a bad thing, I think the key here is that the Fed has continued to hold this position of softening now is and can they navigate a soft landing is the real question. I think this is going to be the one that we'll have going into this. We're probably going to take, I think we may take some questions. It depends on how long Chair Powell talks. So make sure and drop some of those over on the side. And if this is your first time here on the channel, all I would ask is that you subscribe. We do a lot of hard work and research to hopefully bring the best news content out there in the crypto and blockchain space to you. So just hit that little subscribe button. And if you can hit the little bell, it's going to give of you notifications when we go live, just like this one right here. So we'll break in and all that. Just to let you guys know, so when the Fed meets every month to every two months, depending on the on the period of time, basically you have a board of governors that comes together. They start working through all of the data that comes in from the market. And then at that point, they start to make the final decision of how they're going to go interest about rate hikes or potentially interest rate declines. So we'll be airing Chair Powell's speech when he addresses the press corps here in a bit. So just be on the lookout for that. They are probably about 10 to 15 minutes away. We'll go through some things here today I want to talk about today. First of all, how would Bitcoin react to the Fed's interest rate decision? Obviously, right now we're starting to see Bitcoin do a little bit of slight move down. But that's my question is, do we continue to see Bitcoin in more of a holding pattern right now with where it has been? Or if you look at the chart, let me kind of bring up the Bitcoin chart real quick and I'll just jump over to my chart. And I'm on the five minute chart right now. But as you can kind of see, let me go to the one hour so we can kind of push that out for the last couple of days. You can kind of see a little bit of that incline that we've had over the past few days where Bitcoin slipped right into that $27 .4K range at its high and it started to adjust off of that. And I think this is the scenario that I think a lot of people are looking at. And that is when you consider the current status of the macro pressure that the markets are getting. Remember the S &P and I'm going to show you guys some cool things. Let me jump over to the S &P real quick because this is something that we've been doing here on our power index or our market sentiment index and that is starting to measure a little bit more of the S &P compared to what's happening in crypto. Right now I'm looking just at the one hour but this was the decline that we've seen in the S &P 500 which of course has started to adjust a little bit. Now some of that may be coming from the softening in the market itself. Let me jump over to this article here because I want to go back to this point on Bitcoin. Fed's interest rate decision everybody's expected today did come in at what was expected being no interest rate hike. However some experts also said that low volatility may continue after Fed's decision and investors expecting high volatility in the Bitcoin price may be disappointed. I am in somewhat agreement with that. Now there are two I guess two camps thinking of where this direction may go and what it really boils down to is two things. One of course is going to be the situation of when the Fed does pivot and the other is going to be how much lagging data is coming in in the last quarter because here we are going into Q4 October 1st. Once we start to move into Q4 we're going to start to see one the Q3 earnings that will give us some indicators of how most of these companies are doing which will cause some action on the S &P 500. And then with that you are also going to get lagging data on jobs. You're going to be lagging data on general scenarios that are market pressures coming things like the oil market. And then what we'll see is I still believe is the CRE market the commercial real estate market. That's going to be the one to watch for. And that is my concern if we continue to see a little bit of a decline there. Now the other question that plays into this is how sticky will inflation be during this last quarter because all of what we could see and including possibly another quarter point and we'll probably hear this from Chair Powell here in a few minutes when he comes on to address the press is whether or not we will see another quarter basis points rise in the fourth quarter of this year and how that sets up Q1 and Q2 for 2024. Now you have to be thinking about what is this going to do around an election year. You've got a lot happening with the UAW. That's the United Auto Workers strike potentially looming. Biden administration is pushing hard to try to position against that along with what's happening on the labor market tightening somewhat. And then of course what we've seen with sticky inflation. So all of this was really playing into when is that bottom really in. Now that's the question mark for Bitcoin, Ethereum and some of the blue chip assets. Have we started to see maybe a little bit of that swoop off of the bottom and started that into that stabilization. And I'll show you guys some examples of that. But here's the U .S. Federal Reserve keeping rates elevated through 2024. This is the concern that I think slows things down a little bit in the general market. And that is that if BlackRock is right and that if we continue to see higher rates interest rates through 2024. Now when I say higher he could still pivot and start that quarter point softening of a market. That in itself would most likely send the markets into a tizzy. But I think the other issue is whether or not we actually reach the scenario of an inflation cap that actually gets hit by consumer price index which obviously will affect consumer spending all those kind of things. And that starts to roll into the potential of a recession. And that is the real question mark looming here right now. A couple of points I want to hit out on this article on BlackRock. BlackRock's head of global fundamental income strategy agreed that the Fed is unlikely to change rates. Everybody's right on that. But the big deal is since March 2022 the Fed has increased rates 11 times to fight soaring inflation. And we've got a few charts I'll show you here in a minute of the history of inflation and the reaction of markets and how they've been able to respond. What you see there right there in 2023 is where we are now. But obviously this back in the 1980s when we were at pretty much all time inflation hits. Additionally if you guys did not follow this Citigroup announced the Fed interest rate forecast for September and November. This is another one that I think is important. From now on markets will price and how long interest rates will remain high and rather than whether there'll be an increase in interest rates. And that's my point is if we're talking about all of 2024 seeing a five plus interest rate Fed fund rate that's going to continue to pour money into the money market overall. And I think that's the other scenario especially when you look at the amount of liquidity that's going to be setting in on the sideline. So that's another factor into 2024 because you've got the halving coming with Bitcoin. You have a new election year coming in and then you have these crazy scenarios playing in on all these market pressures coming in from the macro side of things and that's providing that we don't end up with a united autowork because I think if we get a strike in the car market that could have some pretty big effects possibly even actually be one of the things that pushes us into recession because of how the auto mobile industry is so connected to so many different job industries so many sectors and obviously part of what we'll see in terms of just consumer pricing. Other parts on this I wanted to show this is kind of the the nominal Fed funds target rate increase during the FOMC tightening episodes. This goes all the way back to 1983. And this is good because it shows you how quickly this is us right now in the green the twenty two twenty three range. Look how quickly we've accelerated up that chart versus if you look at the 2004 to 06 tightening all the way back to the 2015 to 18 very slow and steady until we had the you know what. And then back here in the 80s which was really kind of that flat line and then boom that heavy acceleration that we had in the early 80s when we really started to see kind of a redefinition of what high inflation truly was. And I don't know how many of you guys are around. I was still in high school at the time but but it this kind of shows where we could be. Now that's the question mark right now because if we stay at this rate right here if we start flat lining right here what maybe we'll have a little bit of this kind of effect back in the 80s where before we saw that last two to three point raise. And that's the concern I have is if we do see any kind of somewhat tentative recovery here in the Q1 possibly even in Q2 does the Fed look at 2024 data and start to reposition. I still believe that we are at the end of this cycle.
Crypto News Alerts | Daily Bitcoin (BTC) & Cryptocurrency News
A highlight from 1407: How Bitcoin Will Hit $7 Billion Per Coin - Peter Dunworth
"And here's your prescription. I know just the pharmacy to get this filled. Who are you? A pharmacy benefit manager. A middleman your insurer uses to decide which medicines you can get, what you pay, and sometimes even which pharmacy you should go to. Why can't I go to a pharmacy in my neighborhood? Because I make more money when you go to a pharmacy I own. No one should stand between you and your medicine. Visit PHRMA .org slash middleman to learn more. Paid for by pharma. In today's show, Bitcoin price test 27 ,000 support as the Fed holds interest rates at the FOMC. And quoting Max Keiser, you can only create Bitcoin's absolute scarcity and true decentralization once. I'll be breaking down the two reasons why. As well as Bitcoiners stack them up as the inactive Bitcoin supply hits yet another all -time high. Send it. We'll also be discussing grayscale files for new Ethereum futures ETF. I'll be breaking down this official report. As well as Bitcoin NFT ordinals creator proposes to change the inscription numbering system as well as analysts on -chain analyst William Clemente says a setup for Bitcoin becoming increasingly favorable. I'll be breaking down his latest analysis. As well as sharing with you the most bullish Bitcoin price prediction in crypto news alerts history. We have a crypto veteran investor predicting the Bitcoin price reaching a valuation of seven billion dollars per coin. I've been breaking down the math of why he believes this is possible and we'll also be comparing it to Fidelity's one billion dollar Bitcoin price prediction and we'll also be taking a look at the overall crypto market. All this plus so much more in today's show.
CoinDesk Podcast Network
A highlight from MARKETS DAILY: Crypto Update | Championing Crypto Causes and the Latest DeFi Breach With Host Noelle Acheson
"This episode of Markets Daily is sponsored by Kraken. It's Wednesday, September 20th, 2023, and this is Markets Daily from Coindesk. My name is Noelle Acheson, Coindesk collaborator and author of The Crypto's Macro Now newsletter on Substack. On today's show, we're talking about crypto activism and another DeFi hack. And just a reminder, Coindesk is a new source and does not provide investment advice. Now, a markets roundup. Crypto assets were mixed today. At 10 a .m. Eastern time, Bitcoin was up almost eight -tenths of a percent over the past 24 hours, trading at $27 ,164. Ether, on the other hand, was down four -tenths of trading at $1 ,631. Ether's underperformance could be a market reaction to a series of reports from blockchain sleuths of large transfers of the asset to exchanges. While it is hard to know exactly what is behind on -chain movements, the reports could be enough to spook some investors into getting out ahead of what might be potential sell pressure. Meanwhile, Bitcoin trading volume continues to fall. A report from K33 Research published yesterday shows that Bitcoin spot volumes dropped a further 8 % over the past seven days. This has been driven largely by sharp declines in activity on Binance, the world's largest crypto exchange in terms of trading volume. The seven -day spot volume average on Binance is down 57 % since the beginning of the month. Most other exchanges are flat over the same period, with Coinbase registering a 9 % increase. It remains to be seen where the volumes leaving Binance will end up, if anywhere. Much of the drop could be from more liquidity providers leaving the platform in the face of intensifying legal pressure on the exchange from US regulators. This is likely to have a further dampening effect on liquidity, which could further delay the entrance of large investors. Institutions generally need a certain amount of liquidity to be assured that their orders won't unduly distort the market, and that they could exit easily if necessary. In traditional markets, US stocks are heading up this morning as traders brace for the FOMC rates decision later today. The S &P 500 was up over 0 .3%, the Nasdaq up 0 .2%, and the Dow Jones up almost 0 .5%. While the market is pricing at a pause, attention is now focusing on the likelihood of another hike before the end of the year. CME futures show odds swinging in favour of no more hikes this year, implying that the peak is already in. This would be good news for stocks which are already looking ahead to the likely timing of rate cuts. The bond market, however, is signalling that it expects US rates to be higher for longer. This morning, the yield on the 10 -year US Treasury reached its highest point since 2007. The updated FOMC summary of economic projections due to be published today should shed some light on the Fed's expectations for rate cuts next year. In Europe, the FTSE 100 jumped this morning on news that UK inflation came in lower than expected. The year -on -year increase for August was 6 .7%, notably better than the consensus forecast of 7%, and the lowest level in 18 months. Tomorrow, we hear from the Bank of England as to the outlook for UK interest rates. Odds for another hike tomorrow have dropped to below 60 % after being an almost sure thing just a few days ago. Earlier this morning, the FTSE 100 and the German DAX index were up almost 0 .09%, while the Euro stock 600 was up just over 1%. In Asia, Japan's Nikkei index was down almost 0 .07%, as data out earlier today showed the country's exports dropping for the second consecutive month. In China, the Shanghai Composite fell more than 0 .5 % after Chinese banks left their benchmark loan prime rates unchanged in line with the central bank's oil prices finally seem to be taking a breather, with the Brent crude benchmark down almost 1 .5 % over the past 24 hours, trading at $94 a barrel. This comes as Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for crude to $100 a barrel, citing strong consumption coupled with production cuts. Gold saw a sharp bounce this morning, with the price jumping over 0 .5 % in half an hour, trading as high as $1 ,943 per ounce. This has led to speculation of a large buyer entering the market. It could also be a reaction to a decline today in the DXY dollar index. Stay tuned. After the break, we'll take a look at investor trust in DeFi platforms and efforts to mobilize crypto Meet voters. the all new Kraken Pro, the powerful, customizable, beautiful way to trade crypto. It's Kraken's most powerful trading platform ever, packed with trading features like advanced order management and analytics tools, all in a redesigned modular trading interface. So head to pro .kraken .com and trade like a pro. Welcome back. In this section, we're going to look at crypto activism. But first, another DeFi attack hits crypto. This morning, decentralized trading protocol Balancer said that its web front end was suffering from an exploit and urged users not to interact with the website. According to data platform DeFi Llama, Balancer has a total value locked of about $700 million, making it the fourth largest decentralized exchange. The attack comes roughly a month after Balancer warned the public about an unrelated vulnerability in the protocol's pools. On -chain data show that, so far, over 200 ,000 has been stolen in this exploit. This is not a large amount by crypto hack standards, but it is significant in that it could further weaken investor trust in DeFi platforms. Crypto exploits have caused losses of over $1 billion so far this year, according to blockchain security firm Certik. Recent hacks have highlighted that there are many potential vectors of vulnerability. It's not just the core application code. This further complicates DeFi utility for investors looking for yield, especially given the high yield available now in traditional markets with much lower risk. On a more uplifting note, Coinbase is rallying grassroots activism. Yesterday, the crypto exchange published a blog post urging crypto's 52 million users, according to the company, to call their congressman. The company's Stand with Crypto Alliance will be organizing events across nine states. Coinbase is also launching a paid media campaign that aims to show how powerful the crypto lobby can be. On December 27th, Stand with Crypto Day will convene entrepreneurs and developers from around the country in Washington DC to meet with government officials. And the platform has also launched an app to make it super easy for users to reach the right people in Congress. This could have an impact. After all, if only 10 % of the reported 52 million users make a call, that's a lot of collective phone time. It should also send a strong signal that crypto users have political opinions and that pro -innovation candidates are likely to win their support as the US elections approach. That's it for today's show. You can reach us at podcasts at coindesk .com. Do also please send us questions you'd like us to address on the Spotify Q &A. Follow us and if you like the show, please leave us a five star rating on whatever platform you're listening to us on. Markets Daily is produced and edited by Michelle Musso with executive production by Jared Schwartz. I'm Noa Latcheson for Coindesk. We're back tomorrow with more market news and insight.
Markets Daily Crypto Roundup
A highlight from Crypto Update | Championing Crypto Causes and the Latest DeFi Breach With Host Noelle Acheson
"This episode of Markets Daily is sponsored by Kraken. It's Wednesday, September 20th, 2023, and this is Markets Daily from Coindesk. My name is Noelle Acheson, Coindesk collaborator and author of The Crypto's Macro Now newsletter on Substack. On today's show, we're talking about crypto activism and another DeFi hack. And just a reminder, Coindesk is a new source and does not provide investment advice. Now, a markets roundup. Crypto assets were mixed today. At 10 a .m. Eastern time, Bitcoin was up almost eight -tenths of a percent over the past 24 hours, trading at $27 ,164. Ether, on the other hand, was down four -tenths of trading at $1 ,631. Ether's underperformance could be a market reaction to a series of reports from blockchain sleuths of large transfers of the asset to exchanges. While it is hard to know exactly what is behind on -chain movements, the reports could be enough to spook some investors into getting out ahead of what might be potential sell pressure. Meanwhile, Bitcoin trading volume continues to fall. A report from K33 Research published yesterday shows that Bitcoin spot volumes dropped a further 8 % over the past seven days. This has been driven largely by sharp declines in activity on Binance, the world's largest crypto exchange in terms of trading volume. The seven -day spot volume average on Binance is down 57 % since the beginning of the month. Most other exchanges are flat over the same period, with Coinbase registering a 9 % increase. It remains to be seen where the volumes leaving Binance will end up, if anywhere. Much of the drop could be from more liquidity providers leaving the platform in the face of intensifying legal pressure on the exchange from US regulators. This is likely to have a further dampening effect on liquidity, which could further delay the entrance of large investors. Institutions generally need a certain amount of liquidity to be assured that their orders won't unduly distort the market, and that they could exit easily if necessary. In traditional markets, US stocks are heading up this morning as traders brace for the FOMC rates decision later today. The S &P 500 was up over 0 .3%, the Nasdaq up 0 .2%, and the Dow Jones up almost 0 .5%. While the market is pricing at a pause, attention is now focusing on the likelihood of another hike before the end of the year. CME futures show odds swinging in favour of no more hikes this year, implying that the peak is already in. This would be good news for stocks which are already looking ahead to the likely timing of rate cuts. The bond market, however, is signalling that it expects US rates to be higher for longer. This morning, the yield on the 10 -year US Treasury reached its highest point since 2007. The updated FOMC summary of economic projections due to be published today should shed some light on the Fed's expectations for rate cuts next year. In Europe, the FTSE 100 jumped this morning on news that UK inflation came in lower than expected. The year -on -year increase for August was 6 .7%, notably better than the consensus forecast of 7%, and the lowest level in 18 months. Tomorrow, we hear from the Bank of England as to the outlook for UK interest rates. Odds for another hike tomorrow have dropped to below 60 % after being an almost sure thing just a few days ago. Earlier this morning, the FTSE 100 and the German DAX index were up almost 0 .09%, while the Euro stock 600 was up just over 1%. In Asia, Japan's Nikkei index was down almost 0 .07%, as data out earlier today showed the country's exports dropping for the second consecutive month. In China, the Shanghai Composite fell more than 0 .5 % after Chinese banks left their benchmark loan prime rates unchanged in line with the central bank's oil prices finally seem to be taking a breather, with the Brent crude benchmark down almost 1 .5 % over the past 24 hours, trading at $94 a barrel. This comes as Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for crude to $100 a barrel, citing strong consumption coupled with production cuts. Gold saw a sharp bounce this morning, with the price jumping over 0 .5 % in half an hour, trading as high as $1 ,943 per ounce. This has led to speculation of a large buyer entering the market. It could also be a reaction to a decline today in the DXY dollar index. Stay tuned. After the break, we'll take a look at investor trust in DeFi platforms and efforts to mobilize crypto Meet voters. the all new Kraken Pro, the powerful, customizable, beautiful way to trade crypto. It's Kraken's most powerful trading platform ever, packed with trading features like advanced order management and analytics tools, all in a redesigned modular trading interface. So head to pro .kraken .com and trade like a pro. Welcome back. In this section, we're going to look at crypto activism. But first, another DeFi attack hits crypto. This morning, decentralized trading protocol Balancer said that its web front end was suffering from an exploit and urged users not to interact with the website. According to data platform DeFi Llama, Balancer has a total value locked of about $700 million, making it the fourth largest decentralized exchange. The attack comes roughly a month after Balancer warned the public about an unrelated vulnerability in the protocol's pools. On -chain data show that, so far, over 200 ,000 has been stolen in this exploit. This is not a large amount by crypto hack standards, but it is significant in that it could further weaken investor trust in DeFi platforms. Crypto exploits have caused losses of over $1 billion so far this year, according to blockchain security firm Certik. Recent hacks have highlighted that there are many potential vectors of vulnerability. It's not just the core application code. This further complicates DeFi utility for investors looking for yield, especially given the high yield available now in traditional markets with much lower risk. On a more uplifting note, Coinbase is rallying grassroots activism. Yesterday, the crypto exchange published a blog post urging crypto's 52 million users, according to the company, to call their congressman. The company's Stand with Crypto Alliance will be organizing events across nine states. Coinbase is also launching a paid media campaign that aims to show how powerful the crypto lobby can be. On December 27th, Stand with Crypto Day will convene entrepreneurs and developers from around the country in Washington DC to meet with government officials. And the platform has also launched an app to make it super easy for users to reach the right people in Congress. This could have an impact. After all, if only 10 % of the reported 52 million users make a call, that's a lot of collective phone time. It should also send a strong signal that crypto users have political opinions and that pro -innovation candidates are likely to win their support as the US elections approach. That's it for today's show. You can reach us at podcasts at coindesk .com. Do also please send us questions you'd like us to address on the Spotify Q &A. Follow us and if you like the show, please leave us a five star rating on whatever platform you're listening to us on. Markets Daily is produced and edited by Michelle Musso with executive production by Jared Schwartz. I'm Noa Latcheson for Coindesk. We're back tomorrow with more market news and insight.
Crypto Banter
A highlight from "They've Taken All My Money From Me!" | Ben Armstrong
"So is BitBoy broke. At least that's what he says. He says he's lost everything and he's asking people to help him. So listen to this. Let's listen to this together. Don't watch the video. Guys, I've been under threat of blackmail. I've been extorted for my Lamborghini. That's gone. I've been under literal death threat. That literally told my wife they were going to put me under the ground, put me under concrete over money. Literally said that I've got a recording of it as well as we have the police report. That's what said to my wife. Remember who's on it. We're all supposed to be protected here. So anyway, so BitBoy says he's broke and that he is getting death threats. We're going to talk about that. We're going to also show I'm also going to show you is asking people to help him and they are actually helping him. He's raised over $100 ,000. We're going to talk about that today. Also on the eve or on the day of the big FOMC, this is where we're at. We've got Bitcoin trading at $27 ,000. And if you look where that is, it is just, I would say, touching that resistance level that Gary spoke about. But I think that this is not the chart that everybody should be watching in crypto. In fact, let me show you another chart. And I don't think enough people are actually watching this chart over here because as long as this chart over here is going down, we can't get into a bull market. So if my predictions are going to come right for September, we talk about that chart that I just showed you. Also, what else have we got? We've got the SEC warning that they're coming after exchanges. Again, look at this. So SEC now warning that they're going to be coming after exchanges. And this time it's not the exchanges that you think they're coming from. They're not going for Binance and they're not going for Coinbase. They're going for the decentralized exchanges. And you may be in trouble if you haven't been using a VPN. So we need to talk about that. Then, I mean, if the SEC are attacking the DeFi and attacking exchanges, they are just blocking adoption in the United States. And I'm going to show you who's capitalizing in the adoption in Asia. You can see that Asia is really, really, really flying when it comes to adoption. We're going to talk about that. And then lastly, I want you to get this story. So there is a story or there is something that's come out of the FTX case. You're going to laugh when you hear this. But Sam Bankman -Fried's dad, Joseph, asked Sam for a million dollars salary and they were negotiating his salary. And what Sam said is, he said, I can't give you a million, I'll give you $200 ,000. And so you know what Joseph said? He said, I'm going to tell mommy. Now, look, if you're not Jewish, if you're not Jewish, now I can say this because I'm Jewish, but if you're not Jewish, you would never understand what it means when they say they're going to tell your mother. Because a Jewish mom can invoke so much guilt in her son that it's probably the worst thing in the whole world. So we're going to talk about Joseph, Sam, Barbara and the whole FTX debacle. And of course, we're going to talk about FOMC. So listen, we've got a huge show today and we've got Annie on the show as well because we've got to decide based on what you guys said. So look, yesterday I asked you guys whether we should join Annie's team, go alone or partner with Kyle. Those are the results. I've got Annie coming on and I think that I think Dylan's also coming on and Sheldon's coming on. OK, so there's a lot going on today, a lot going on today. So listen, let's let's get into the show. There's a hell of a lot to do here today.
Bloomberg Radio New York - Recording Feed
Monitor Show 00:00 09-20-2023 00:00
"Interactive brokers clients earn up to USD 4 .83 % on their uninvested instantly available cash balances rates subject to change visit ibkr .com slash interest rates to learn more here the full conversation on the latest edition of the masters in business podcast subscribe on Apple Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts plus listen anytime on the broadcasting 24 hours a day at Bloomberg .com and the Bloomberg Business Act this is Bloomberg radio this is public daybreak Middle East and Africa our top stories this morning it's that day the central bank is expected to pause but leave the door open for another increase as early as November five and ten year Treasury yields hit levels not seen since 2007 amid higher for longer fear oils recent rally will certainly be a cause of concern for the FOMC meanwhile sources tell Bloomberg that one single trading firm is behind the recent price up in the u .s. physical crude market inflation also in focus for the UK this morning with CPI data due in a couple of hours expected increase will make the Bank of England's already difficult job even harder we're gonna go live to London later this show and Saudi Arabia's football spending spree may have transformed it into one of the world's biggest transfer markets league games are averaging just eight and a half thousand spectators and then highlights just how far it has to go just got 8 a .m. across the emirates 6 a .m.
CoinDesk Podcast Network
A highlight from MARKETS DAILY: Crypto Update | Hints of Green Shoots After the Crypto Winter With Host Noelle Acheson
"This episode of Markets Daily is sponsored by Kraken. It's Tuesday, September 19th, 2023, and this is Markets Daily from CoinDesk. My name is Noelle Acheson, CoinDesk collaborator and author of the Cryptos Macro Now newsletter on Substack. On today's show, we're talking about hints of green shoots after the crypto winter, going by recent announcements of crypto funds. And just a reminder, CoinDesk is a news source and does not provide investment advice. Now, a markets roundup. Crypto volatility certainly does seem to be coming back, judging from price moves over the past 24 hours. Yesterday, we talked about how prices were rising. Well, around about midday Eastern time yesterday after we recorded, they fell sharply, with Bitcoin dropping almost 1 .7 % in half an hour. Early today, they rapidly climbed, with Bitcoin again breaking through $27 ,000. Then there was another sharp drop and another climb. And well, you get the picture. At 10 a .m. Eastern time today, Bitcoin was trading at $26 ,975, down just over 1 % over the past 24 hours. Ether was trading at $1 ,638, down 1 .2%. Bitcoin does seem to be leading the market here. Last week, I talked about Bitcoin dominance, which is Bitcoin's percentage of the total crypto market cap. Another metric worth following to gauge market sentiment is the ratio of Bitcoin and Ether prices. Simply, Bitcoin's price divided by Ether's price. When it is rising, Bitcoin is outperforming. And when it is falling, Ether is outperforming. Over the past month, this ratio has risen by more than 6%. In traditional markets, investors around the world are braced for a slew of central bank rates decisions this week. The announcements kick off with the U .S. Federal Reserve's decision tomorrow. And throughout the week, we will get announcements from 10 more, concluding with Japan on Friday. In the U .S., as we mentioned yesterday, expectations are for a pause. Tomorrow, we also get updated economic projections in which we could see the FOMC Committee signal even higher interest rate expectations and a pushing out on the calendar of rate cuts. The inflation data we saw last week showed that core inflation is still, at 4 .3 % year -on -year, more than double the Fed's target of 2%. And headline inflation for August showed a higher -than -expected uptick while the latest jobless claims continue to show employment strength. There is little reason for the Federal Reserve to even hint that rate cuts might be coming soon. Concerns about some tough language from the Fed tomorrow, as well as the impact of rising oil, have pushed U .S. stock indices lower in trading so far today, with the S &P 500 down almost 0 .4%, the Nasdaq down almost 0 .7%, and the Dow Jones down almost 0 .3%. Over in Europe, the FTSE 100 is up slightly, as traders await a U .K. inflation print tomorrow. This is expected to show an uptick to back above 7 % year -on -year, a figure which could influence the Bank of England's rates decision on Thursday. Eurozone indices also appear to be in a wait -and -see mode, with the German DAX down less than 0 .2 % and the Euro Stoxx 600 flat in trading so far today. In Asia, Japan was down almost 0 .9%, as investors sold chip stocks after Taiwan's TSNC, the world's largest chip manufacturer, signaled slowing demand. In China, the Shanghai Composite was more or less flat today, as traders await a decision from the central bank on the benchmark loan prime rate. At the monthly fixing tomorrow, the central bank is expected to leave the rate unchanged, as economic stabilization and a weakening yuan are easing the pressure to relax monetary policy. The Hang Seng index was feeling more buoyant today, rising almost 0 .4%. The relief may be the result of good debt restructuring news from the troubled Chinese real estate sector. In commodities, the Brent crude benchmark continues its climb, almost reaching $96 per barrel earlier this morning. It has since retraced, but is still up over 1 % over the past 24 hours, currently trading at around $95 .40 per barrel. The rise continues to be driven more by supply constraints than by strong demand. On top of the production cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia, we now have lower production likely in the US. Yesterday, the US Energy Information Administration said that output from the top US shale -producing regions is on track to fall for the third consecutive month in October to its lowest level since May. Gold continued to inch higher, up over 0 .6 % to trade at $1 ,935 per ounce. Stay tuned. After the break, we'll take a look at hints of a new season for crypto funds. Meet the all -new Kraken Pro, the powerful, customizable, beautiful way to trade crypto. It's Kraken's most powerful trading platform ever, packed with trading features like advanced order management and analytics tools, all in a redesigned, modular trading interface. So head to pro .kraken .com and trade like a pro. Not investment advice. Some crypto products and markets are unregulated. The unpredictable nature of the crypto assets market can lead to loss of funds and profits, maybe subject to capital gains tax. Welcome back. After a long, empty crypto winter, it looks like activity in crypto funds is finally picking up. Yesterday, Coindesk reported that blockchain capital has raised $580 million for two new crypto funds, one for early -stage companies and protocols, and another for late -stage investments from Series B onward. This is notable, given that most of blockchain capital's investors are traditional institutions such as university endowments, private foundations, financial institutions, sovereign wealth funds and US pension plans. While they may not be ready to buy crypto assets directly, institutions are investing in the industry. Also this morning, we heard that the digital assets subsidiary of Nomura, Japan's largest investment bank and brokerage group, is launching an investment vehicle for institutions called the Bitcoin Adoption Fund. The fund offers long -only exposure to Bitcoin, with custody handled by Comainu, which was founded in 2018 by Nomura in partnership with crypto companies Ledger and CoinShares. Those aren't the only significant signs of increased activity we've had over the past week. We also heard that Electric Capital is aiming to raise $300 million for a new fund, Cassie Kornbank, the largest traditional bank in Thailand, has created a $100 million fund to invest in Web3 and AI startups, crypto platform BitGet has established a $100 million fund to invest in the trading ecosystem, and investment firm Reverie has launched a $20 million crypto venture fund. All this over the past seven days. Green shoots, maybe? That's it for today's show. You can reach us at podcasts at coindesk .com. Do also please send us questions you'd like us to address on the Spotify Q &A. Follow us. And if you like the show, please leave us a five star rating on whatever platform you're listening to us on. Markets Daily is produced and edited by Michelle Musso, with executive production by Jared Schwartz. I'm Noelle Acheson for Coindesk. We're back tomorrow with more market news and insights.
Markets Daily Crypto Roundup
A highlight from Crypto Update | Hints of Green Shoots After the Crypto Winter With Host Noelle Acheson
"This episode of Markets Daily is sponsored by Kraken. It's Tuesday, September 19th, 2023, and this is Markets Daily from CoinDesk. My name is Noelle Acheson, CoinDesk collaborator and author of the Cryptos Macro Now newsletter on Substack. On today's show, we're talking about hints of green shoots after the crypto winter, going by recent announcements of crypto funds. And just a reminder, CoinDesk is a news source and does not provide investment advice. Now, a markets roundup. Crypto volatility certainly does seem to be coming back, judging from price moves over the past 24 hours. Yesterday, we talked about how prices were rising. Well, around about midday Eastern time yesterday after we recorded, they fell sharply, with Bitcoin dropping almost 1 .7 % in half an hour. Early today, they rapidly climbed, with Bitcoin again breaking through $27 ,000. Then there was another sharp drop and another climb. And well, you get the picture. At 10 a .m. Eastern time today, Bitcoin was trading at $26 ,975, down just over 1 % over the past 24 hours. Ether was trading at $1 ,638, down 1 .2%. Bitcoin does seem to be leading the market here. Last week, I talked about Bitcoin dominance, which is Bitcoin's percentage of the total crypto market cap. Another metric worth following to gauge market sentiment is the ratio of Bitcoin and Ether prices. Simply, Bitcoin's price divided by Ether's price. When it is rising, Bitcoin is outperforming. And when it is falling, Ether is outperforming. Over the past month, this ratio has risen by more than 6%. In traditional markets, investors around the world are braced for a slew of central bank rates decisions this week. The announcements kick off with the U .S. Federal Reserve's decision tomorrow. And throughout the week, we will get announcements from 10 more, concluding with Japan on Friday. In the U .S., as we mentioned yesterday, expectations are for a pause. Tomorrow, we also get updated economic projections in which we could see the FOMC Committee signal even higher interest rate expectations and a pushing out on the calendar of rate cuts. The inflation data we saw last week showed that core inflation is still, at 4 .3 % year -on -year, more than double the Fed's target of 2%. And headline inflation for August showed a higher -than -expected uptick while the latest jobless claims continue to show employment strength. There is little reason for the Federal Reserve to even hint that rate cuts might be coming soon. Concerns about some tough language from the Fed tomorrow, as well as the impact of rising oil, have pushed U .S. stock indices lower in trading so far today, with the S &P 500 down almost 0 .4%, the Nasdaq down almost 0 .7%, and the Dow Jones down almost 0 .3%. Over in Europe, the FTSE 100 is up slightly, as traders await a U .K. inflation print tomorrow. This is expected to show an uptick to back above 7 % year -on -year, a figure which could influence the Bank of England's rates decision on Thursday. Eurozone indices also appear to be in a wait -and -see mode, with the German DAX down less than 0 .2 % and the Euro Stoxx 600 flat in trading so far today. In Asia, Japan was down almost 0 .9%, as investors sold chip stocks after Taiwan's TSNC, the world's largest chip manufacturer, signaled slowing demand. In China, the Shanghai Composite was more or less flat today, as traders await a decision from the central bank on the benchmark loan prime rate. At the monthly fixing tomorrow, the central bank is expected to leave the rate unchanged, as economic stabilization and a weakening yuan are easing the pressure to relax monetary policy. The Hang Seng index was feeling more buoyant today, rising almost 0 .4%. The relief may be the result of good debt restructuring news from the troubled Chinese real estate sector. In commodities, the Brent crude benchmark continues its climb, almost reaching $96 per barrel earlier this morning. It has since retraced, but is still up over 1 % over the past 24 hours, currently trading at around $95 .40 per barrel. The rise continues to be driven more by supply constraints than by strong demand. On top of the production cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia, we now have lower production likely in the US. Yesterday, the US Energy Information Administration said that output from the top US shale -producing regions is on track to fall for the third consecutive month in October to its lowest level since May. Gold continued to inch higher, up over 0 .6 % to trade at $1 ,935 per ounce. Stay tuned. After the break, we'll take a look at hints of a new season for crypto funds. Meet the all -new Kraken Pro, the powerful, customizable, beautiful way to trade crypto. It's Kraken's most powerful trading platform ever, packed with trading features like advanced order management and analytics tools, all in a redesigned, modular trading interface. So head to pro .kraken .com and trade like a pro. Not investment advice. Some crypto products and markets are unregulated. The unpredictable nature of the crypto assets market can lead to loss of funds and profits, maybe subject to capital gains tax. Welcome back. After a long, empty crypto winter, it looks like activity in crypto funds is finally picking up. Yesterday, Coindesk reported that blockchain capital has raised $580 million for two new crypto funds, one for early -stage companies and protocols, and another for late -stage investments from Series B onward. This is notable, given that most of blockchain capital's investors are traditional institutions such as university endowments, private foundations, financial institutions, sovereign wealth funds and US pension plans. While they may not be ready to buy crypto assets directly, institutions are investing in the industry. Also this morning, we heard that the digital assets subsidiary of Nomura, Japan's largest investment bank and brokerage group, is launching an investment vehicle for institutions called the Bitcoin Adoption Fund. The fund offers long -only exposure to Bitcoin, with custody handled by Comainu, which was founded in 2018 by Nomura in partnership with crypto companies Ledger and CoinShares. Those aren't the only significant signs of increased activity we've had over the past week. We also heard that Electric Capital is aiming to raise $300 million for a new fund, Cassie Kornbank, the largest traditional bank in Thailand, has created a $100 million fund to invest in Web3 and AI startups, crypto platform BitGet has established a $100 million fund to invest in the trading ecosystem, and investment firm Reverie has launched a $20 million crypto venture fund. All this over the past seven days. Green shoots, maybe? That's it for today's show. You can reach us at podcasts at coindesk .com. Do also please send us questions you'd like us to address on the Spotify Q &A. Follow us. And if you like the show, please leave us a five star rating on whatever platform you're listening to us on. Markets Daily is produced and edited by Michelle Musso, with executive production by Jared Schwartz. I'm Noelle Acheson for Coindesk. We're back tomorrow with more market news and insights.
Crypto Banter
"fomc" Discussed on Crypto Banter
"Two. So layer two of the trade is, so layer one is I've got the price action there too. I've got the volatility action. Layer three, I don't want to pay for it. So I've actually got the market to pay me to be in that trade. By selling puts and selling calls. By selling puts and selling calls. And so what you can see is that above the 29 ,500 calls, I've sold three times as many of the 30 ,500 calls, which actually means I get a net $100 credit on the trade. What if the price, so, okay, so you sold calls at 30 ,000, what do you say? 30 ,000? 30 ,500. Okay. By selling calls, that means you've sold someone the right to buy from your 30 ,000. So what happens if the price goes to 41 ,000? Well, if I see the price moving that quickly, I'll hedge with futures. But if the price goes against me, then what I'll do is I'll pick up those 30 ,500 calls and I'll roll them out to a later week or a later month and eventually I'll roll them out to a higher strike and eventually I'll get away without paying for them. Meanwhile, I'll be picking up all of the positive action from the 29 ,500 long calls. So I'm now getting paid to avoid paying my debts in the market. Shane, what do you think of this? What have you done? Well, I think this is what we do sort of day in, day out is, you know, like I said, we never usually buy a naked call or a naked put. That's sort of for the chumps. That's the guys who go to the casino, right? They know what they're doing. There's nothing wrong with it every now and then. Sure. If you're new, try that out. It's no problem. Try it out. You're new. But over time, you'll find that it becomes too expensive because when you buy calls or buy puts, you have to be correct on both timing and direction.
Crypto Banter
"fomc" Discussed on Crypto Banter
"Money when it goes, but sometimes it might be better to let the market decide which way it's going to go and then jump in once everybody's all panicked. Sometimes that's the best opportunity for making money. So don't, don't kick yourself if you miss it. But the other thing too is, you know, when markets break, they go down faster, a lot, a lot faster when they go down versus when they go up. So I think that if, you know, if we're going to go and we're going to make a hard move, it'll be a hard move down. If we move up, I think we'll go to the top of that range at most. Oh, okay. Not everyone's very convinced that we're going to break that 31 ,500 range. It's become like a psychological barrier that people are going, well, we're not going to break it. We can't break it. No amount of good news can break it. I think that that's where everyone's going to get tricked because what I do know is that when everyone has a certain view about a market, the market usually makes everyone look like, makes everyone look like fools. All right. Let's go into the strategy and say, look, if I'm a beginner and I want to be, and I know you guys are super advanced and I'm going to let you have your advanced moment towards the end. But if I'm a beginner and I want to, and I want to trade options, I want to trade, I want to start trading options. Where, what is a good strategy ahead of FOMC? Walk me through it. If I'm bullish, walk me through it. If I'm bearish. Rick, you can start at your, your, your mic wasn't muted. I think you've unmuted yourself. Tell me what do I do? Where do I go? Walk me through the trade. I can't hear it. Your mic's muted. Just unmute yourself on the dashboard. I can't unmute Richard. That's the problem. He's because he unmuted himself. It's on the, on the stream. Just, yeah, just smash the, there we go.
Crypto Banter
"fomc" Discussed on Crypto Banter
"Richard, have you got a chart? Is it some way that where our viewers can actually connect? I'd love for our viewers to learn where you're checking this volatility and where they can check the volatility. So if you look on Deribit. I'm going to put your screen up. So there's your screen on the screen. Okay, great. If I'm shared. So there are two. So if you press this little button with four nine dots, I've no idea what they call that. But anyway, if you look at the volatility index, DIVL, that is a running average of the money volatilities of the one month option or as close to it. I'll get to that in a second. If you look one below, that's the historical volatility. So if you look at the historical volatility, which is the deviation of the returns of Bitcoin over the past 15 days of this. And we can see that the actual volatility of Bitcoin has got down to 28%. So 28%, just to put that into perspective, is about the volatility you'd expect on a slightly sub par stock on the NASDAQ or the S &P. So Bitcoin has become as stable an asset as a mediocre share on a traditional stock exchange in terms of the actual money we see in it. And then the DIVL index measures the implied volatility in the prices of the options. And we could do a whole course on this. In fact, we do. And what we're seeing here is that the so this is the essentially the driving force behind the price of options, how expensive they get. And you can see that over the past, I don't know, year, six months, the general trend has been down, down, down, down, down, down. There's been the occasional event. We saw the $5 ,000 run up about a month ago while I was on holiday, which increased volatility up to about 55, 60ish maybe, which is still historically not high, but it was high enough that we all thought, okay, quickly, let's sell vault.
Crypto Banter
"fomc" Discussed on Crypto Banter
"All right, we are exactly 48 hours away from Powell's FOMC speech or FOMC decision. I think the market's priced in the fact that Powell's probably going to increase rates by 25 basis points. And then I guess the market is priced in that this is the last interest rate hike before we keep interest rates stable. And then eventually, maybe, maybe, maybe in March actually start reducing interest rates. Now, with when it comes to Bitcoin, we've been in this very awkward place, because for the last month, Bitcoin has been trending sideways with no volatility. About 48 hours or just longer than 48 hours before the FOMC decision, Bitcoin decides to break down and for the first time we start getting some volatility. And I think that this is the volatility that all the expert traders are starting to trade. So they don't trade well when there's no volatility, but when there is volatility, that's the volatility they start to trade. And when they do trade this volatility, they don't trade it using spot and they don't trade it using futures or derivatives. But what they trade it using is they trade it using options. So today, what I want to do is I want to spend some time getting you teaching you guys how to be like the expert traders, how to use options to trade big events like the FOMC, but also how to use options to hedge your portfolio and just to become a more sophisticated trader. So, it's going to be a fun show. I'm glad to be back. You know, I've been away for a while. I'm glad to be back. I'm glad to be back on the week of FOMC. Let's do this. Let's become expert pro traders.
Crypto Banter
"fomc" Discussed on Crypto Banter
"And if you don't exactly tick every box on there, then we're protecting investors by telling you to leave. That is an actual commission of the SEC talking. All right, the next thing is we had a ripple pump yesterday. We had an XRP pump. So you're not ripple. I'm not allowed to call it a ripple, because that means I'm likening it to the centralized entity, but we did have an XRP pump. I actually sold my XRP somewhere around there. But that's got a whole lot of speculation that maybe the court case is coming to a head. And as someone says, it could come at a pivotal time for the industry if this thing actually happens. So I agree with Ryan's Celtics sentiment. I don't really care whether you like ripple, don't like ripple, but you want ripple to win, and you want it to be, you want it to be, you want it to be precedent of the SEC losing another battle. So I don't really care how you feel about ripple. I'm not the biggest drip of fan. I'm also not the biggest hicks fan, but you know what, regardless of whether or not you're a Higgs fan, let's just see if we can get a charger because we do have to talk about tokens that are good. Let's see if we can get a hex USD T somewhere. So let's look at text USD T. I think the best performing asset in 2023. The best performing crypto asset in 2023. So I think if you look at, let's look at it from about here. It is up 523% in 2023. Now, this is all in anticipation of getting the pulse hits, the hex and the pulse chain. So, and everyone thinking that pulse chain is coming up. So I mean, we have to talk about it. Hicks is the best performing crypto of 2023. I mean, you can't look at it any other way. That's that. Also, I have been watching the binance wallet. You can see that they have actually started to deploy. They had a $1 billion. They've not got $672 million. That could be a big reason for the Bitcoin pump. That could be a massive reason for the Bitcoin pap. I just refreshed it now. $672,000. If we could just compare that 28,409.
Crypto Banter
"fomc" Discussed on Crypto Banter
"When it launches tomorrow, if it is above $2, two dollars 50, we short. If it is below, $1 30, we go long. And we keep that range. We keep looking for that range. If you buy it at under $1 30, you hold on tight for your life because it's probably the greatest value that you're going to get. If it goes to $3, or $4, because you know it will do it, because the retail DJ and apes are going to jump in. You know what's going to happen, right? So we are going to short at above $2 50, and we're going to log it anything under $1 city. That is our strategy for tomorrow. We're going to be doing this with you guys live. I need you guys to open an account. If you don't have an account, you don't have a $100 in your account. It's going to be a big problem. You're not going to be able to trade with us. If you trade on bybit or bit get, you will stand a chance to win $10,000 if you trade arbitrum within the next 7 days. So if you try arbitrary within the next 7 days, you stand a chance to win $10,000 ratio on banter. Now, let's look at what the futures pricing is doing. The OTC market, of course, there's an over the counter market. Right now, around $1 city, $1 34, that's the majority of all the tokens are being sold. Again, that talks to our model over here, right? That talks to our model over here. On bitmex, $1 40 to $1 45, probably fair value, probably fair value. You see what we're looking for here. We're looking to get this is the over the counter transactions. Majority of them happening at around one 45, some of them as high as $2. The one 50 to $2 ranges from your no go zone. And the reason why it's a no go zone for me is because I just think that the risk return, the risk reward is not worth it. I don't think arbitrum is going to go up to $5. And if it does, I think it's a greater short of all time, because that would make it the most valuable protocol out there. But I think we've got to pay, you've got to pay super,
Crypto Banter
"fomc" Discussed on Crypto Banter
"He says, typically, BTC dominance and eth BTC act as general portrayals for when it's okay to start rotating into your favorite altcoins. We want to see some weakness in the dominance and some strength on eth BTC. And he's pointing out that dominance could break through these two key levels here and at the same time you could get an H BTC breakout. So that's what you're watching for. What we are also watching for is a watching for altcoins breakout against Bitcoin. Now right now, that's not a pretty picture. Except for one to all coins. We'll keep watching this trading this chart because this chart is showing us the altcoin breakouts against altcoin breakouts against Bitcoin. So that's we'll keep watching that. And then tomorrow, you can expect a huge run up in outputs. And I'll tell you why there's going to be a huge run up in development. Because it's because of the arbitrary age. So tomorrow, at about the same time when we go live, in fact, what we'll do is we will go live at the same time the trade opens for arbitrary. We'll be trading arbitrum live right here with you tomorrow. So it's going to be big. It's going to be fun. We're going to be trading arbitrum with you, not you want to trade arbitrum. You need a few things. The first thing is you need to have an account open at an exchange where you can trade arbitrum. So you can go to bit git, you can go to buy it, you can go to okay, excellent, all going to be trading arbitrary tomorrow. You can see that bybit has a whole lot of incentives. If you deposit your arbitrary into bybit, you get a whole lot of incentives, just go follow all the different types of incentives. There's a whole lot of different incentives. But you need to have an account because if you don't have an account, you can't trade. And tomorrow we're going to be trading the arbitrarily. So I suggest go now to any of the links below, bybit, but get okay, specifically on buyback, you get a $30,000 bonus sign up on us up to $30,000 if you try to correctly. And you get a whole lot of incentives for trading your actual outcomes. The first thing you need, you need to have an account, make sure you have an account tomorrow before we start training, make sure you have money in the account. Then we're going to trade it together. I'm going to show you the training strategy together. And then speaking of the word strategy, so you have to have an account,
Crypto Banter
"fomc" Discussed on Crypto Banter
"And then you want to slip in this U.S. CBDC. And we know that The White House ordered the fed is launching a CBDC sometimes let it this year. Now, some senators primarily Republican states and a lot slanting one word, I'm just naming it is I know a lot of you think that I'm a huge Republican. I'm not either I live in South Africa, I don't give a shit. But Ted Cruz in Texas, he says, we're introducing a bill to ban the fed from adopting Central Bank digital currencies. Then we had the census. He came out, listened to, this was brilliant. This was absolutely absolutely brilliant. While protecting against government surveillance over your personal finances with our legislation shouldn't stop there, given the continued increase in Chinese influence in worldwide affairs and increase in plans to adopt CBDC worldwide, our legislation also prohibits any CBDC issued by foreign reserve or government sanction Central Bank. This will ensure that any effort to adopt a worldwide digital currency will never occur in the free state of Florida. And finally, calling on like minded states, like Florida, to adopt similar legislation into their uniform commercial codes and to reject any changes to their uniform commercial code that would formally recognize a Central Bank digital currency and I've already spoken with lieutenant governor of Texas who's ahead of the Senate in Texas. I do believe Texas is going to do something similar to what Florida does. And if we can get a groundswell of states to say no, we are not going to turn over this power to you. I mean, look, ultimately, cash is king. I mean, if you can hold it in your hand, you have power over that. The minute it's all digitized, somebody else is going to have control over that, and it's just a question of, are they going to let you live your life? Are they going to decide to do things such as circumvent what you want to do? And think about what we've already seen in Canada, you remember when the truckers were protesting the vaccine mandates, you know, they had banks, some of the government sees some of some of their banks. You had charities that were trying to help these guys, and that was frozen. So we've already seen government really overstep its bounds as it is in the in the banking situation and financial sector that we have now. Can you imagine if we went to something like a Central Bank digital currency? So I'm glad that we're at the tip of the sphere on this. I think it's really important that states stand up to fight back against some of the things that are going on. Well, most of the things that are going on right now in Washington because they don't have your best interests at heart. They have their own power at heart. They have their own agenda that they're looking to advance.
Crypto Banter
"fomc" Discussed on Crypto Banter
"I have the disease that you want to talk about on YouTube, because if you talk about it on YouTube, your videos get banned. So I think that's the best. I look like a slightly red ghost. Is that a compliment? I don't know, James, when that comes from you, it's a compliment. Okay, I think that's probably the best we're going to get. And how's that? You want a little bit more black. Let's give you a bit more black. Can we promise we promise we'll do this out of studio the next time? Literate. Okay, James, let's read it is. How's that, James? That's a bit okay. Cool. So we do have, we do have all the banks. Were they predictions, as I said, 25 basis points is a prediction. But this is not about the banks. It's not about the 25 basis points. This is about remember the dot plot. Remember that thing which killed the markets a couple of FOMC meetings ago. Well, that is what this FMC is about. So what the dot plot is, I'm going to quickly break it down for you in very, very, very simple English, okay? So here it is. The dot plot is effectively when each member of the fed gets a vote to predict where interest rates are going to be at certain points in time. So it's almost like if we each get a sticker and I say to you, where do you think interest rates are going to be in 2023? And you put your sticker at this level, then that's what the dot plot is. So each one of these dots represents a member of the fit, and they're basically they put up like a big whiteboard. And they say, guys, tell us where you think interest rates are going to be at a certain point in time. So you can see that in this case, most people put their in this case, everyone put their dots here at 25 basis points. Yeah, there was a mix. It was 25, 50, and one, and .75. So
Crypto Banter
"fomc" Discussed on Crypto Banter
"I better just long here. If there's no hikes, holy shit, they're going to lower rates and the money principle will go. I need some risk assets. So I think it's a very, very, very smart way of looking at how this FOMC is to be traded. If there is 50 basis points, rest assured, the banks are going to collapse. That's what's going to happen. If there's a 25 basis point, everybody just starts deploying because it was exactly what they expected. If there's no interest rate tax tonight and it's coming out in four hours, four and a half hours. If there is no interest rate hack tonight, rest assured that we're getting the market pump of all pumps happening to that. It's in four and a half hours, someone says someone corrected me. So how do you trade this? What can you expect when you have Bitcoin? At 28,347, what happens next? And you know, you're going to laugh. But the best depiction of how to trade this is actually what I saw over here. So it's literally that, because what you're going to expect is you're going to expect Bitcoin to hover at around 28,028 1350. As the numbers come out, which is about 8 o'clock, the you'll get a slight tip, I'm not sure that it's going to go down to 26,000, but it's going to go slightly done. And then as Polish starts talking, I think we start going up again, then we come down again, and then we carry on climbing tomorrow in the next day. And I think we will cloud tomorrow because not only because of the FMC, but also because of the arbitrary AirDrop. So I mean, this is exactly exactly exactly how I would actually be trading the FOMC. If you want to be such a degenerate and if you do want to be such a degenerate, shall Dina is actually going to be streaming later tonight during the FMC during pulse press conference. I'm going to be live on the spaces. So if you want to join us on spaces, if you go to my profile, we've merged our spaces with Mario. So we're going to have one big spaces with Mario. And the space you can just set a reminder go to my Twitter. Just look at the guests that are coming on layer helper and garrison away, Scott melker, Mike mcglone, obesity, Vinny linger and Jason pizzino, all these people are coming on to our spaces. So go there now. It's on my Twitter profile, I said a reminder, because we're going to be we're going to be trading this with you guys later today. And I think if we look at the possibility of outcomes for the editor, let's just look at what could happen. So right now, the market is saying to you that there is an 87.8% chance, pretty much a 90% chance that the fed increased interest rates by 25 basis points. There's a 12.2%
Crypto Banter
"fomc" Discussed on Crypto Banter
"And so this rally, unlike most realities that we've had in the last couple of months, this rally is actually powered by spot. And you can see this. You can see this with all the funding rates. Look at the funding right here. I think this is binance. The BTC USD T on binance. The funding rate is zero or close to zero. When the funding rate goes up, it means that the leverage degens are taking positions, but not in this case, in this case, this is not leverage legions. This is people actually buying spot Bitcoin, which is exactly what Bitcoin was intended for. It was exactly what Bitcoin was created for. You kind of seeing this new type of degen actually starting to buy Bitcoin, which is strange for me and super encouraging. What's also encouraging for me is that if you take the DCA, the dollar cost average model, which is the one that everyone preaches that you should be getting into. And even if you started dollar cost averaging at the all time high, and Bitcoin's price is 60% from the all time high. You would literally be in profit right now. So if you started buying Bitcoin literally the 69 credit at the all time high, your average purchase price is 25,700, you're not 10% up. So it just shows that even if you started D.C., a completely completely completely the wrong time. Then you still 10% up in profits. And that's a super, super exciting metric. And you know the way in hindsight, hindsight is a perfect science hindsight is 2020.
Crypto Banter
"fomc" Discussed on Crypto Banter
"Going into FMC Bitcoin 28,350, Bitcoin dominance is still on a tail. The altcoins very few out coins which are running, but the ones that are running, I think we should give them a little bit of time and attention. So the bit get token is running over 40 cents again, almost at 42 cents. Algorand was a 23 cents when I looked earlier, 22.9. XRP is running. Could this mean that there's something happening with a court case? We need to talk about that. I saw ADA running as well. I saw it very close to 39 cents, 38.6 cents earlier. We're going to talk about why that's running. And then hicks, I mean, if you look at hicks this year, hicks hasn't stopped this year. We're going to talk about whether there's a good opportunity to be getting into and why hicks is actually going up in the show as well. So if you're not a hexagon, if you are a hexagon welcome, if you're not a Higgs account, you're going to have to grin and bear it while we talk about hicks on the show. Now, as I said to you, we are having an amazing run on Bitcoin. In fact, if you look at the run that we've had on Bitcoin, let me show it to you. It is there. What we are seeing is that we've had the highest weekly returns on Bitcoin since January 2021. So we've had an amazing, amazing, amazing week. It's been driven by this banking collapse, so to speak, it's been driven by the balaji campaign. It's been driven by a whole lot of factors, but regardless of what's driving it, we have had the biggest week in Bitcoin's returns since early 2020 21, which is huge. The main thing about this is that what we're seeing here, and this is courtesy of into the block. 72% of Bitcoin holders are in profit at the moment, not usually with any other asset class and even actually with Bitcoin. When 72% of people holding Bitcoin profit, it becomes dangerous. And the reason why it becomes dangerous is because the people that are in profit usually when they're in profit, they're more inclined to sell and take their profits. As opposed to when they loss. So when people are in losses, generally they like to hold on as long as they can until they get liquidated on cool, they can't bear the pain anymore. But when people are in profit, then the problem is that usually people take profits. But in this case, so the C says, this suggests that the cryptocurrency market is showing a positive trend. If you should be wondering, if that many people are in profit, it's the current process. What's going to happen next? And he says, let's look at the previous cycle. And he notes that in the previous cycle, what he saw is that this number actually went to about 90% of people in profits, which means that the accumulation that's taking place on Bitcoin is taking
Bloomberg Radio New York
"fomc" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Preserve maximum employment. So when the FOMC meets, as it does regularly, 8 times a year, 8 times, you pretty much know how the decision is going to come out before you actually get together because you've been talking to each other, or the meeting of the FMC changed minds in ways that you might not have expected before the meeting started. It depends on the meeting. I talked to each of the 18 other participants at least once, and we go through everything. What's your analysis of the economy? Why are we thinking about monetary policy? How are you thinking about the path forward and all of that? So in some meetings, I will say, some of the time, you get into a discussion at the meeting, which suggests that maybe you should communicate differently. And then we'll think about that. And we might actually take a break in the middle of the meeting and then go off with a smaller group and think about that and come back and make changes. Sometimes, though, everything plays out as expected. And when you're having these FOMC meetings, I assume somebody sweeps the room to make sure there's no bugs and anything. All that. No leaks. No. Okay. And today, as you look forward, as we are going forward for the next remainder of this year, you're basic view would be you'd be happy if the inflation rate were to get down by the end of the year to 2% may be unrealistic, but your core inflation hour overall inflation you think is about four or four and a half percent, something like that, or what would you say it is? It's in that range. There are different measures. Yes, we expect significant progress on inflation this year. And again, it's our job to produce it. And I want to say, again, we throw these numbers around. But the reality is we're going to react to the data. So if we continue to get, for example, strong labor market reports or higher inflation reports, it may well be the case that we have to do more and raise more than a priced in. So if I wanted to go get a mortgage on a house, I was going to buy, for example. You would say, I'm not going to be any better off waiting till next year than now, because rates aren't going to come down that much at the beginning of next year. So I might as well go to the house now. Mortgage. Surprisingly enough, I get a lot of requests for advice on those kind of things. And you don't have any. And I really can't. I can't really can't respond. So, okay, so on the whole, to summarize where you are, you're basically saying that the jobs data was that came out was a little bit surprising. But in the end, you're taken into account and you're pretty comfortable with the guidance you gave last time and you're not prepared to give anything that's completely different guidance than you gave last week. Well, I mean, this is a world in which we've had the inflate sorry, the labor market report. And I think that does, I think it underscores the message that I was sending at the press conference and in the meeting that we have a significant road ahead to get inflation down to 2%. And I think there's been an expectation that it will go away quickly and painlessly and I don't think that's at all guaranteed that's not the base case. The base case is it will tip for me is that it will take some time. And we'll have to do more rate increases and then we'll have to look around and see whether we've done enough. And in 2% is the rate we have for the last 25 years before inflation came along. But prior to that, for most of U.S. history, we were higher than 2%. Is it that 2% is we're now so used to 2% after 25 years of it that you think that's the appropriate level? So we went through this long period where inflation was really anchored around 2%. And we think that economists think that that's because people start to expect 2% inflation and inflation. In a way, if people, if everyone expects that prices are going to go up, prices and wages are going to go up 2% per year, then plus productivity in the case of wages, then it will. That's what will happen. Having price stability, real price stability for an extended period of time is just enormously beneficial to the public because you can then on the back of that, you can build a very strong labor market. As we had, we had a labor market with really three and a half percent unemployment in 2000 18 and 19. And we had inflation running just barely getting to 2%. Wages moving up the most for people at the lower end of the spectrum. And so this was we all want to get back to that place. But the bedrock of the whole thing is to get inflation under control. The unemployment rate hasn't come down as much as people are going up as much as people thought. In part, some people say, because we don't have as many immigrants coming to the country, legal immigrants coming in, taking some of the jobs that otherwise would take. Do you think immigration is an issue in terms of giving us more labor workers or do you think that's not a factor? So just as a matter of arithmetic, it was a factor because there was very little migration across borders during the pandemic. And that was part of what was happening, particularly in certain sectors like agricultural sector and food service and things like that, where they're just weren't the people. However, just very recently here, the immigration data have turned up again. And so I think that may be part of why people are feeling somewhat less pressure in the labor market to find workers. This is an issue not for the feather. This is immigration is obviously a political issue. We do not seek to be a player on this. But it's just a fact, though, that right now the United States has fewer available workers than it has jobs plus job openings. And when you increase interest rates, traditional effect is to increase the value of the dollar versus other currencies. Do you have any concern about the value of the
Bloomberg Radio New York
"fomc" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"You for that question and thank you. Thank you for inviting me here today. It's great to be here. So we don't get to play it that way. Unfortunately, we have to, but also I'll take it this way. So the message we were sending at the FOMC meeting last Wednesday was really that the disinflationary process, the process of getting inflation down, has begun. And it's begun in the goods sector, which is about a quarter of our economy. But it has a long way to go. These are the very early stages of disinflation. So the services sector really except for housing services, pardon me. Is not really showing any disinflation yet. So our message really was this process is likely to take quite a bit of time. It's not going to be we don't think smooth, it's probably going to be bumpy. And so we think that we're going to need to do further rate increases, as we said. And we think that we'll need to hold policy at a restrictive level for a period of time. Then comes the labor market report for January. And it's very strong. It's certainly stronger than anyone I know expected. And so, but I would say we didn't expect it to be this strong, but I would say it kind of shows you why we think that this will be a process that takes a significant period of time. The labor market is extraordinarily strong. And by the way, it's good. It's a good thing that inflation has started to come down without that has not happened at the cost of strong labor market. So and of course, since then, labor sorry, financial conditions have tightened significantly since then. So let me ask it another way. So
Bloomberg Radio New York
"fomc" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Seen in recent months should continue to temper growth and help bring demand into better balance with supply As shown in our summary of economic projections FOMC participants have marked down their projections for economic activity with the median projection for real GDP growth running below 2% through 2024 The labor market has remained extremely tight with the unemployment rate near our 50 year low Job vacancies at historical highs and wage growth elevated Over the past three months employment rose by an average of 408,000 jobs per month Down from the average pace seen earlier in the year but still robust Improvements in labor market conditions have been widespread including for workers at the lower end of the wage distribution as well as for African Americans and Hispanics Labor demand is very strong While labor supply remains subdued with the labor force participation rate little changed since January FOMC participants expect supply and demand conditions in the labor market to come into better balance Easing the upward pressures on wages and prices The median projection in the SEP for the unemployment rate rises somewhat over the next few years moving from 3.7% at the end of this year to 4.1% in 2024 levels that are noticeably above the march projections Inflation remains well above our longer run goal of 2% over the 12 months ending in April total PCE prices rose 6.3% excluding the volatile food and energy categories core prices rose 4.9% In May the 12 month change in the consumer price index came in above expectations at 8.6% And the change in the core CPI was 6% Aggregate demand is strong Supply constraints have been larger and long-lasting than anticipated and price pressures have spread to a broad range of goods and services The surge in prices of crude oil and elder commodities that resulted from Russia's invasion of Ukraine is boosting prices for gasoline and food and is creating additional upward pressure on inflation And COVID COVID related lockdowns in China are likely to exacerbate supply chain disruptions FOMC participants have revised up their projections for inflation this year particularly for total PCE inflation given developments in food and energy prices The median projection is 5.2% this year and falls to 2.6% next year and 2.2% in 2024 Participants continue to see risks to inflation as weighted to the upside The fed's monetary policy actions are guided by our mandate to promote maximum employment and price and stable prices for the American people My colleagues and I are acutely aware that high inflation imposes significant hardship especially on those least able to meet the higher costs of essentials like food housing and transportation We are highly attentive to the risks high inflation poses to both sides of our mandate and we're strongly committed to returning inflation to our 2% objective Against the backdrop of the rapidly evolving economic environment our policy has been adapting and it will continue to do so At today's meeting the committee raised the target range for the federal funds rate by three quarters of a percentage point Resulting in a one and a half percentage point increase in the target range so far this year The committee reiterated that it anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate And we are continuing the process of significantly reducing the size of our balance sheet which plays an important role in firming the stance of monetary policy Coming out of our last meeting in May There was a broad sense on the committee that a half percentage point increase in the target range should be considered at this meeting If economic and financial conditions evolved in line with expectations We also stated that we were highly attentive to inflation risks and that we would be nimble in responding to incoming data in the evolving outlook Since then inflation has again surprised to the upside Some indicators of inflation expectations have risen And projections for inflation this year have been revised up notably In response to these developments the committee decided that a larger increase in the target range was warranted at today's meeting This continues our approach of expeditiously moving our policy rate up to more normal levels And it will help ensure that longer term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2% As shown in the SEP the median projection for the appropriate level of the federal funds rate is 3.4% at the end of this year A percentage point and a half higher than projected in March And .9 percentage point above the median estimate of its longer run value The median projection rises further to 3.8% at the end of next year and declines to 3.4% in 2024 Still above the median longer run value Of course these projections do not represent a committee plan or decision and no one knows with any certainty where the economy will be a year or more from now Overcoming months we will be looking for compelling evidence that inflation is moving down Consistent with inflation returning to 2% We anticipate that ongoing rate increases will be appropriate The pace of those changes will continue to depend on the incoming data and the evolving outlook for the economy Clearly today's 75 basis point increase is an unusually large one And I do not expect moves of this size to be common From the perspective of today either a 50 basis point or a 75 basis point increase seems most likely at our next meeting We will however make our decisions meeting by meeting and we'll continue to communicate our thinking as clearly as we can Our overarching focus is.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"fomc" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Us about that Well obviously you have to stick with the consensus that the next two or three FOMC policy meetings you'll get 50 basis points So increase But I would argue by the fall if the economy is starting to slow if inflation doesn't look quite as hot we go to 25 basis point rate hikes for the last two or three meetings of the year I don't think the fed will overdo it They know the markets are worried that the fed could kick into a recession I don't think the fed will do it So at that point you know we're coming off the summer you like to think that COVID rates are pretty low You just mentioned we just avoided a recession Inflation is coming down a little bit It looks like it peaked Does that start to turn the conversation politically as well or is it just too late for that Probably too late Maybe if the move on inflation to downward is clear by mid to late summer it could help Joe Biden The gas pump and grocery stores But once that attitude gets solidified it's hard to change And there is a belief among American voters that run away spending as exacerbated inflation And I would argue if you look at spending and revenues it's a totally different story It's a much more positive story So in our remaining 30 seconds here does a mini build back better happen between now and November Maybe a couple of things maybe something on the environment pre kindergarten for kids But it's certainly isn't going to be anything great In fact Democrats wish they had taken Manchin's offer of 1.5 trillion That was Nirvana It seems like a lot of money now doesn't it Greg valier with us the.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"fomc" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"That's the consensus of the FOMC committee I think when they emphasize that the interest rate is the main tool of monetary policy it means that the rates have to go up by a while before you start the run up because otherwise if you suddenly have a reception you want the rate to be high enough that you can reduce it That's the meaning of the rates being the main tool monetary policy So I think that the majority of the FOMC is not at some Waller's view yet of runoff happening in the summer I mean it's quite interesting that he said you know even four or 5 increases could be needed if inflation stays stubbornly high And that's also another very interesting thing that he said So I think there's no doubt that inflation by CPI will fall in the second half of this year The question is where would it be He said it would be 2.5% at the end of the year but consensus right now think is around 2.8% But he also said that the fed mandate is the average inflation of 2% but if it gets up to about 3% or higher it means that to get back to the average of 2% you have to run inflation like lower That's like zero to 1% to get to an average of 2% And by our calculation like if you average the inflation over the last ten years you actually are ready exceed the average of 2% at the end of last year So it means that look CPI is going to come down next year this year If it's still at like 3% even though it seems much lower than today's 7% 3% is too high I mean 3% would be in high enough to warrant four or 5 rate hikes I'm glad you brought up that notion of average rates because it seems to me over the past month or so we have heard zero talk about that And it seemed like they'd almost dropped it as a goal or as a target So you think that they would not be able to actually employ that because with inflation running as hot as it is right now that you'd have to overshoot far too far on the other direction Yes So I'm saying that yeah exactly That given that right now it's every month when the CPI release if it's higher than the consensus it pushed the year over year inflation by the end of the year at a higher level than the 2.8% of consensus right now So it's very easy to get to 3% If there's suddenly an armor clone supply chain or supply chain or flat or China shut down suddenly disrupting production or even after that as wages in U.S. run really hot in a super tight market because of armor cron And it starts getting past two prices We will be at 3% and that would exceed the 2% average inflation Even if you average it across ten years Very briefly as well Henry Kaufman the doctor doom of the 1970s saying that power has made two key errors as fed chief said the first was attributing some inflation to COVID-19 something he says is impossible to measure And therefore unknowable in the second was calling it transitory I mean he's the one who says that we need to act very aggressively against inflation Yeah yeah And so yeah I think the parallel to 1970 We are still not at that level yet I know that inflation is currently at the level of 1982 but that is when it's on the way down At that time chairman Volker was already jacking up interest rates and it was on its way down But still so I still think we're not at the wage price spiral of 1970s But I don't think we have enough to know that it is not going to happen yet because at the Federal Reserve people have done research on wage price byro using the data from the last 30 years.