20 Episode results for "Fitch Ratings"

Nigerias Recession To Be Deepen By 417,000bpd Oil Cut

Newscast - Africa

01:26 min | 1 year ago

Nigerias Recession To Be Deepen By 417,000bpd Oil Cut

"You're listening to the news The time when Africa Business Radio a global credit ratings agency Fitch Ratings has said Andreas compliance with auto production quality led by my of Petroleum Exporting Countries lead to Deepa economic contraction and fiscal deficits. It also said the developments would compound precious on external finances as a result of the storm in oil prices. The Ratings Agency stated on Monday through the country's foreign exchange reserves would fall to three point three billion dollars by the end of twenty twenty from thirty eight point six billion dollars in December twenty nineteen. It said the increased three calls to concessional. Multilateral loans would ease near term liquidity pressures but the risk of a destructive macreconomic adjustments would persist according to the administrative states soil system Silva launch area is expected to cost production by four hundred and seventeen thousand barrels per day so one point four one million barrels per day in May and June in addition to condemn states production of between three hundred and sixty thousand and four hundred sixty thousand barrels per day. And that was the news this time in Africa Business Radio. You can't continue to listen live online at. Www Dot Africa business radio DOT COM. Or I'm able thank you for listening.

Africa Fitch Ratings Dot Africa Ratings Agency Petroleum Exporting Countries Andreas Silva four hundred sixty thousand ba seventeen thousand barrels four one million barrels three billion dollars six billion dollars
Hearst President and CEO Steve Swartz on Helming a 132 Year-Old, Family-Owned Media Powerhouse

KindredCast: Insights From Dealmakers & Thought Leaders

44:30 min | 2 years ago

Hearst President and CEO Steve Swartz on Helming a 132 Year-Old, Family-Owned Media Powerhouse

"Hi. I'm Viva Ramani. And welcome to episode fifty four of kindred cast a biweekly podcast featuring insights from dealmakers and thought leaders from the world of tech media, and everything in between kindred cast is a production of kindred media, powered by lion Trie on today's show. Steve swertz, the president and CEO of Hearst corporation, sits with lion. Tree CO are able or cough to discuss his unique perspectives at the helm of the hundred thirty two year old family run media powerhouse conversation ranges from Hearst, prescient move into business media, and services to swertz, his well, regarded personal style, which she describes as IBM salesman. Circa, nineteen sixty tune into here how Steve and his colleagues are writing the next chapter of this multi generational juggernaut. It is my pleasure to be sitting here with the president and CEO of the Hearst corporation. Mr. Stephen source, thank you very much for being here. Thanks for having me. It is one hundred thirty year history hearse has grown to own conic print and digital brands like bizarre. L cosmopolitan, the San Francisco, Chronicle and more. They also have steaks and Amy ESPN and owned companies in the business information sector like Fitch Ratings was Steve at its two thousand thirteen and in senior positions for decades prior Hearst, which starred as a newspaper business now trousers, all areas of media, finance and business. Steve has one of the more unique executive this in the world as a leader of a very influential mass media company that controls acids of legacy and new media as well. Leading business information conglomerate and doing it as a private company. Steve, welcome. Thank you for being here with us on Kidger cast, thank you hearses one of those companies that I've talked internally about being. Model like it'd be so bold for how to really build a proper family. Run business. Let me just say that. I hope you and I can get together. When we celebrate the hundred and thirty second birthday of Lyon, tree. Thank you very much. If we get to the thirty second birthday lines of you happy to start. You know, we're only seven years in the making so far, but Hearst is a unique company. So tell me why, or how it is to work at a private family owned business. That's generational nature. I think every company is unique in their own way. I think some of the things that said as part I mean, we are a hundred and thirty two years old. We had a very dynamic founder William Randolph Hearst to was constantly challenging the business side to look for the next thing that made sense in the context of a media company, you know, here's someone who was born fabulously wealthy, because his father was one of the most successful miners in the great gold and silver, rush. Senator George Hearst. So he didn't really even have to work, but he went right into the newspaper business because he wanted to make a difference. He bought afternoon newspapers because he wanted to serve. The common man, and that the working man's paper was the afternoon paper, but he pushed us into magazines. He pushed us into radio before he died. He lived a very long life. He bought one of the first television stations and nineteen forty eight so he established our culture at our place of pushing beyond your comfort zone to look for new areas of growth and innovation. And then we had another icon, ick leader, my predecessor Frank Vanik ran the company for almost thirty years, and he pushed us much more into broadcast television and into cable television and got us going in what we call business media, which are companies like fetch. And so, yes, we're privately held we're actually owned by trust. The fact is, they're both management trustees and family trustees that trustees tend to be lifetime appointments. So we have people who keep a long relationship with the company it reinforces, the culture, reinforces the history, I think all of that. Makes it a relatively unique place to work, but there's something about the culture or maybe the charter, or even the trustees that encourage hurston the company and yourself as chief executive to put more money into the company for growth and innovation and not just to manage the assets of old. I really think it starts with the founder and I think that again, because we've had this trustee system, the keeps executives and family members with a long direct relationship with the company, I think that's how these things get passed on, and they don't get lost one of the shame of public companies, people reach a certain age. And then they're out there not only out as CEO or chairman, but they go off the board. One of the things that I think, helps us is that we just have this history that we're supposed to keep pushing we're not just building the company for today's colleagues and today's dividend recipients, but for future colleagues future dividend recipients, and that's just been passed on. I think it's in our DNA when I became CEO, I didn't have to change anything that was already in the culture, and of course, Frank still right down. The hall is our executive vice chairman make ensure that I don't screw things up hardly. But not. Only did you know the mandate when he became executive. But you also knew that the part of the role is to innovate is to change is to diversify the business again. A new business lines which you've done beautifully somewhat say her may not even be described as a media company. I mean, how would you describe? I will we like to think of ourselves as entertainment information and services company, but I would argue that a hundred and thirty two years ago, we were the same thing because when William Randolph Hurst, persuaded his father to let him take over a newspaper that his father, owned as part of a wide diverse holdings of Senator Hearst, the San Francisco Examiner in eighteen eighty seven I would argue at that time and still to some degree today that newspaper, particularly back then was a principal source of entertainment, a principal source of information and provided all kinds of services to the community hundred and thirty two years later. Would argue that we are obviously entertainment through. Yes. PIN through the history and lifetime channels principally in our local stations information. Yes, is still news, but has also morphed over time into financial credit information through Fitch aviation and information through a company called camp that we own fabulous company, and then the services have become more software services camp as an aviation data and software company, we have a couple of medical software company. So I would argue that while the actual execution elements have evolved. We've stayed in three broad areas of entertainment information, and services because one of the reasons why actually start doing this podcast is because of the storytelling opportunity around this industry, and really not only where we're going, but where we've come from, and that's why. By looking forward to this conversation with Steve because you have a sense of media, and information services is not being a static concept, but where we came from and where we're going very much still in growth mode, and innovation mode. And that is a hallmark for the industry. Most times these are public companies and very hard to transition into these new models, as a public company Bentley, when you have a traditional beat ABI business, which is media in most cases now to beat ac- to consumer business, also very difficult the skill set. So everyone says, I wish I was just a private company doing this, but you have the luxury of doing so there's a give you a different way of taking risk of being bold, as a private family, controlled business versus being public whichever wanna Republic ever is a long time. We have no current need or plans to be public one of the great things about our portfolio. Is it generates a very significant amount of free cash that allows us to keep invest? Sting in the kind of businesses that we want invest in without going to the public markets for equity capital and actually using very little debt as well. So, I think, though that it's not so much public versus private. It's a legacy and its credibility. So whether we were public or private, we would not have been able to pull off the expansion that we had over the last several years into more and more business data medical data or business or medical software. If we hadn't had a legacy of doing that which came out of trade publishing, so you go back forty or fifty years through various acquisitions. I don't think trade publishing was ever a top of mind strategy for the company, but through various acquisitions, we got some trade publications some of which we still publish we still publish Lor covering weekly. And if you wanna know what? That's about the name says it all, but it's still a profitable industry publication. So we continue to do that. But back forty fifty years ago, we were publishing magazines called American druggist. We republishing magazine called motor, which was for people who repair cars for living, fortunately, for us, the publishers of those to trade magazines, again, forty fifty years ago decided that as good or better business would be to be collecting data in their industry. And of course, at the time they had the publish this date in big books, because there was no internet, but American druggist spawned, a company called first databank, which we own one hundred percent of, and it is the largest source in this country of drug dosing information, drug interaction information that is relied on by hospitals and pharmacies across this country. And in some other countries that came out of American druggist motor more from a magazine about how to fix cars into a database as to how to fix cars and repair times and, and repair cost estimates. And is now a fabulous data business that is put together. I think it's in the realm of twenty seven or twenty eight straight years of revenue and profit growth, so we did more aggressively decide Frank Bennett, and I when I was fortunate enough to become his chief operating officer in two thousand eleven we jointly decided with the tremendous support of our board, and particularly our chairman will Hearst to push more aggressively into business data and business off wear, and since that decision we've made nine billion dollars of backwards issues in that area alone, including, including Fitch, we own a smaller piece of fish, we now one hundred percent. A fish and what is forever one's audience and sort of a rating agency component kids, one of the global ratings agencies clearly along with SNP and Moody's and Fitch itself has a long history. And I think Paul Taylor and his team are CEO there do a fabulous job, and it's global rating agency and then it has other non raidings financial information product. So it is a large global financial data provider. Now when you say ratings obviously, this is not media ratings. No, you're talking about bond rating. Right. But the debt markets and the financial markets, so you start off as a Wall Street Journal. Reporter, I believe way back when take us through how that skill set and being very well read gives you the qualifications to be overseeing this conglomerate and building this company. Most of us have had any success in life. And if it from just having head great mentors in from the time I joined the Wall Street Journal, I got to work with such giants in the businesses. Norm perlstein and James b Stewart who writes a famous column now for the New York Times. And I think that what you learn as a financial journalist, is how to analyze things you have to some things up quickly. You have to master a number of different industries. So I was fortunate enough to both cover Wall Street than I was an editor on the front page desk, and then you had work on Cynthia. Sizing these big stories that could've come from the farm bureau's or the Washington bureau. So I think it was at still a very young age. Still in my twenties, a great learning experience. And then when I hit expressed to my bosses at the time a long-term desire to be on the business when a chance the Wall Street Journal, and her started talking about publishing the financial magazine. They said to me, my bosses at the journal so, well, this would be a good opportunity for you on Choubey our lead Representative on this project, and that led to the push into the business, interestingly enough that project, which was called thus mart money magazine, which we brought out in nineteen ninety one I think Hearst person that was put on that project. David carey. And he did a fabulous podcast with you, and David went on to run our magazine division in a fabulous way. And we've been good personal and business friends over since. Now, his graduated to becoming a student at Harvard. Now he is on the Harvard campus and advanced leadership program, and I have a son, who's on the Harvard campus as sophomore great from journalists to business person, and then obviously in chief executive senior executive Hertz corporation along the way. What could you point to for your ascendancy, that was an accolade, or sort of a bold Beth that you've made that got everyone's attention saying, well, this person really could lead this company. I don't know that it was anyone thing. And I think most of aside from the way you dress. The. Look, a lot of things in live his lock in being in the right place at the right time as long as you're working hard and trying hard and, you know, I think smart money, the fact that smart money ended up being a successful launch with myself, as the launch editor in David as the launch publisher. I think another thing that actually kinda helped me in an odd way, David decided after we were up and running a couple years to move on. And he joined nother fabulous media company at Conde nast when he moved on Frank Bennett, who has been my principal mentor in life. And I've been very fortunate in that Frank said to me, would you be interested in taking over David's business, I'd responsibilities, and I guess I was around thirty one at the time and I very much was so that was my first time with that. I was fully on the business, and it was really a lucky turn of events both the David decided to move on. And that Frank decided to give me a chance while it's worked very well. And now as the CEO, would you say that the most innovative moves that you've made or the boldest move may have been in the businesses area way from media? I think the biggest decision that Frank and myself and our board med was to push harder in to what we call business media, which is the Fitch and the medical and the transportation data off where businesses because I think it was relatively clear back, then this was early two thousand eleven that the entire consumer media sector some of which were still growing at a rapid rate. Certainly ESPN was knocking the cover off the ball and an e was blowing through their numbers every year PA positively. Yes. But I think it was clear what we were seeing happening with newspapers getting disrupted by technology and magazines getting disrupted by technology and yellow pages. Getting disrupt that the same thing was inevitably going to happen to the television business. Maybe not as dramatically because television, is it self digital business, but was going to happen. Something was going to happen to the model and we were getting at that time, roughly ninety percent of our profits from consumer media. So we decided in our board and our management team. It really is in many respects, like a partnership at Hearst of all of various division heads, and senior executives and our board, and certainly Frank. We decided that let's push more aggressively into an area that was already working for a so we had the credibility. We just weren't as big as we felt we needed to be. And now in two thousand nineteen we expect almost forty percent of our profits to come from these e to be businesses. Meanwhile, what we thought would happen has happened, not in a dramatic way. But clearly we're seeing some changes in the business model of. Television that has not in any way. Made it a bad business. It is still a very good business, but it's growth pattern has clearly been altered by the changing technology and media landscape. Could you give us a sense of speaking out, how big hurston, what the diversification, as well as a private company, we reserve, the right not to talk about our profits? We did about eleven and a half billion dollars of revenue and we run at a very respectable margin and about forty percent of that you'd think is you said as businesses in two thousand eighteen it was thirty three percent of our profits came from the business media. It's business media sits tend to have a higher margin. So they're not as big a percentage of our revenue. But of our profits thirty three and because our business media portfolio is growing at a double digit clip while the consumer media side. Is not growing anywhere near that fast. This year we think it'll be about forty percent of our profits. And obviously, if those patterns continue, and we're pragmatist so we don't know. But obviously, we will move and I think we would be in better shape, if we move more toward a fifty fifty balance or even just given the prevailing climate north of fifty fifty in favor of the BBC stuff. So this is what I'm really impressed with, because we all love the media business, and obviously, you have your tentacles, a lot of places in that business, and that's been a legacy part of the company, but to really plot out a diversified model that gives you hand growth and business diversification. The same time, I think if I could be bold is the beginning of your legacy the long way to go. We both fans of writer. David brooks. I've been studying his concept, even off the New York Times up ED's of what he calls his second mountain. We this is a personal development, but even from a business perspective. We all climb. Our first mountain, we've spoken about it a lot, which you reach your core competency, hopefully around our age groups and then you start to hit a valley of thought about what you really wanna be in the future versus where you came from. And that valley is a very self-aware process of what the business looks like and where you wanna go, and then you start climbing your second mountain, which is kind of a scary place to be because not where you came from. But it could be a very joyful productive exuberant experience because it's really taking on a new chapter. Once you have a purpose about that, then it can be transcended. That's how I think about you. But how you're working with hurston transforming the business in your direction? Well, first of all, David Brooks is fabulous and perhaps the best columnist writing today, and like you on excited to hear about his new book, and to read it at hers. I've already read it. Area. You're nothing if not flunked doesn't surprise me at all. I think that it hurts. At least it really is a partnership. I don't look at this as in any way my legacy, again, we're building on William Randolph Hearst, did. And Frank bin ich did, and he still with it. We still have this fabulous group of trustees who are both some retired members of senior management who are still very actively involved, some daily, we're just very blessed all of the divisions of hers, whether it would be Jordan were LeBron Hearst television are thirty three stations or David. And now Troy young running magazines Mark all them who's now our chief operating officer at the corporation, but he ran newspapers for many years. Now. Jeff Johnson neared Kim Lonnie who helps us oversee our entertained before we just have fabulous group of folks, Paul Taylor at Fitch or can great camper. We just have a fabulous group. Of really CEO's of their own business eve, Burton Burton, our chief, legal officer and matures CFL, I'm going to leave somebody out some purpose about this. But, you know, we just have a fabulous group of folks in its collective partnership again. We got a great board. Very supportive will Hearst in the hers family. So it's a collective and really what we've done is really a continuum that starts with the founder. So we're just building off of that to some respects in it. See David Brooks thing on YouTube, so I guess I'm a little familiar to some degree. I think what he could also be talking about, is what people do outside of work, and we all work most of the time. But obviously, there's also can be another leg that doesn't necessarily have to interfere with what you're doing businesswise. But, you know making more of giving back more of a philanthropic commitment, more of the civic commitment. And there again, you know, working at hers, that's just. Baked into the DNA. We are all expected. We've got David carry now up at Harvard in this advanced program, trying to learn more about the not for profit sector that will influence what he does either in his business life or in his private life going forward. Certainly, many of our trustees will is very Finland. Thraw bec- Frank Bennett spin on the New York Presbyterian hospital board for forty years and has served as its chairman served as chairman Lincoln center. So we learned that Franken regard because the chairman of the center, yet for Germany into the center, so trying to follow in his footsteps, there's well and, and, you know, work on things like Lincoln center. I'm also pleased to be on the board at New York Presbyterian, a very a privilege to be on that Boorda, chairman of the Associated Press. So some of that is what one does to make a contribution in areas that are not directly, but can be related to what you. Do in the workplace for sure. I want to talk about the area of partnerships because Hurst has been known over long time with one very notable example, which we're going to bring up of being just a phenomenal partner, contributing partner investor, but one that's very easy to work with, and obviously very productive to work alongside and these referred to ESPN. So Hearst for longtime at a twenty percent owners reviews peon in partnership with Disney, which has been the majority holder, take us through how that came to be, and why that parts of it works so beautifully relation with Disney overall. Well, yeah, I mean we're just so fortunate to be tied. Disney is innovating on so many levels when you're thinking about the great CEO's in general, or particularly great CEO's in the media business. You've gotta start with Bob Eiger. So the history of it is hurston ABC, when it was a stand alone company back in. The early eighties Leonard Goldensohn the phenomenal men who build ABC and Frank Bennett came together and decided to have television partnership, that would aim at this new thing called cable television and out of that partnership came the lifetime channels, and eventually the history channel Leonard also bought for ABC ESPN, then capital cities, the fabulous team of Murphy, and Burke with Warren Buffett as their biggest shareholder came in and quired ABC. So our partner became cap cities ABC during that time twenty percent of ESPN that was not owned by cap cities ABC came up for sale that twenty percent had been owned by the RJR, Nabisco company, and after the famous takeover by KTAR that spawned the book and movie barbarians at the gate. They decided that they needed to sell down some non-core assets to pay down dead. And so they put their twenty percent and Frank and his colleagues at the time acquired that twenty percent aided by the fact that there was a comfort level at cap cities, that we would be a good twenty percent holder to their eighty. I know they regret not actually buying it themselves. But we benefited from that, and then in the mid nineties, Disney acquired cap cities, and they have been our partner ever since and the relationship is really fabulous. And it's really across a huge swath of our media portfolio. So clearly Disney owns and controls ESPN. They own eighty percent. We own twenty percent. We like to think that we're very supportive and been good board members. But they're calling the shots and Jimmy Petar the relatively new head of ESPN is just doing phenomenal job. He fifty fifty we and Disney own. On eighty history in lifetime and some of their other channels together, and we have a relatively new CEO there. Paul Bucci hairy who once against just doing a phenomenal job running any, and then we own fifteen ABC affiliate television station. So we're really all in, in the television business as a partner of Disney, you look at what Bob has done, first of all, you know, realizing I think before just about anybody did that cable had carried the game for a long time. And while cable wasn't going away. New growth needed to be put in place and Bob position. Disney to have that new growth from blockbuster brands and his acquisitions of Star Wars, and marvel and picks are just totally put them in place for a new era of growth, and certainly inspired us for us. We couldn't go into the movie business. William Randolph Hearst had tried that decided that wasn't for us and move. Moved on. But for us that new Lega growth was business media, I was very inspired by what Bob had done at Disney. And now he's positioning Disney as the leader in going direct to consumer with the great brands and we're already benefiting. Yes. Bien pluses, off to a great start as a relatively new streaming brand. So we couldn't have a better or more important partner than Disney. Yeah. But that partial continues to evolve mean the eighty twenty partnership peon that's clear. They call the shots your reporter and you probably obviously very involved in what's happening even though Disney's and. A fifty fifty partnership is not easy because usually a fifty one forty nine or someone has to call their shot, but fifty fifty you coming together making decisions together is wherever an issue like who has a hand when there's a I mean it's really been great over many decades. This is one of those partnerships where the contract never comes out of the drawer. We've always been able to jointly make decisions and keep things going. And any has just had phenomenal growth over the last thirty years. What do you think now that the Disney FOX deal is closing or just closed, or set the close, depending on, when we actually released this podcast? It's a obviously very much imminent that is now going to be a content drug or not with direct consumer offering and getting bigger and bigger in his own. Right. How does that change your with Disney? And is there some sense of the partnership is kind of left behind, or will that ultimately be part of that whole contents? Edgy. Well, I can't speak for Bob or Kevin mayor or any of our great partners there. They'll have to and do a great job of laying out their own strategy. All I can say about it, and he is it, it's a big company. It's a significant company on its own. It's a significant part of our significant part of Disney's earning. So you can't imagine anything of that size and quality. I mean right now, and he has pretty much any way you slice it three networks in the top twenty so they don't think you get everything in terms of an e being left behind as significant s but we are in a scale moment for media. Right. Which is evidenced by the Disney FOX deal eight to two Time Warner. Comcast sky other notable examples as well. Do you get concerned about being subscale orders? You're partial Disney, make you feel more comfortable. You're either to one of the scale players, but we'll see. I mean, obviously, as you say the landscape keeps changing I wouldn't single any outlook every. Media business regardless of its size is evaluating change and trying to figure out what the future is. And it's hard to say if you wanna look out five ten years, where we'll be where the traditional bundle will be where new bundles will be how big affect your will streaming be what will be the relative consumption patterns traditional brands, versus more, Netflix, or Amazon, of course, Disney will now control fabulous, Brandon Hulu. And so I just think for all consumer media brands what the future holds is hard to predict, but all I'll say about an e is three channels in the top twenty I feel pretty good about the top twenty on the cable dial. Yeah, but how do you think about from direct consumer perspective, but we'll have to see, I mean, I think everything in the direct to consumer world is relatively nascent except for Amazon, and if you other players, so, yeah, Netflix, of course. So we'll see. Yeah. And broader topic on technology mean technology has to be brought into any businesses days, not just about the consumer video places even software companies and business services and even this podcast. Right. This is a new technology, even though it sounds like an old technology and the audio business. Your first podcast, I'm happy to be welcoming you into the new frontier here, but tell me about how Hearst, incorporates technology know-how in partnerships United together, the Microsoft CEO summit. So I know that you're in the game and involved, but how do you think about as a business leader? Well, obviously, there are many layers of technology. I think what we're most excited about is what we think, is the dawning of phenomenal new age of productivity across businesses across the world in, you know, much is been written. Professor Gordon wrote the seminal book about how what has happened in the modern era. Has not produced the same level of dramatic leaps in productivity, as we had with the dawning of electricity. Refrigeration aviation would have you kind of thing that so far, the digital revolution of the streaming revolution or whatever kind of hasn't really produced that level of change. And there's been a lot written about Larry Summers in particular about a level of stagnation, and the economy. I think, though that we're on the cost with artificial intelligence machine learning opportunities for automation. I think we're on the cusp of a great leap in productivity, and we're excited about it, and trying to use it across every Hearst business mostly from the notion that armed with insights pattern recognition in what have you from the computational power? That's out there today. That no individual has the time or resources to do. I just think our folks across the creative side, the business. I defined scan be making better decisions, and I think that's going to be pushed across so a big focus for us that Mark all the Marci fop rating officer is leading is just to make sure that we are integrating machine learning. And there aspects of artificial intelligence in every business operation using fabulous off the shelf, tools, hiring, some fabulous, statea, scientists, and mathematicians. And what have you to make sure that we're constantly trying to take our data put it into better forms, and then run some learning against it and make better decisions, so projecting or speaking for our audience here, and listen to you talk, you sound like a very sophisticated Stewart of capital and business executive, but there's also a very funny. And warm and inspirational side to Steve sports, because I know that side of you and you could let it out a little bit here. It's safe because we do share with each other are year and letters that we send up to our people, and I'm grateful that you haven't trusted me to read your and get a sense of your leadership style. And I appreciate your taking a look at mine, and giving me your feedback as well. But give me a sense of how you lead. It's a big company obviously, you have company of a deep bench, you have Frank as inspirational executive vice chair and leader, but really, it's kind of a lonely job. So leadership is really there to serve the people and the company and you do a great job of that. And I saw that really through, you're writing your letter. So what does your style who I, I love the concept of any annual letter because hopefully our colleagues benefit from it because we're relatively diversified company. And we want them to have a full appreciation of everything that's going on the opportunities the challenges, and where each of our may. Divisions is headed your letter is notable for a lot of business insight, but you also have book recommendations, which takes it, one step farther than mine, or even Warren Buffett's. And I think all of us are inspired by Warren's letters. I've read them all and commend anybody who hasn't read them, all they are phenomenal forty plus years of business history. And maybe going on fifty years of business history and insight and wisdom. And it's just amazing to read them. So I think many of us who write letters, Jamie Dimon, of course, rights phenomena letter are inspired by Warren, and his ladder riding at that, Microsoft, comatose able to tell war, and, and then typical and he immediately turned around and recommended two or three letters that I should read that I hadn't read before just a fabulous. That was a great time to warn we got to go to Bill, Gates's house and see the library and in, you know, Saudi and the Dow's doing such a fabulous job running Microsoft. So that was. Great to be able to be that conference leadership. I think today not just for Hearst. But for most businesses is about collaboration. It's about working through differences to come up with a shared vision. Everybody's going to have different perspectives. Not all of our senior team gonna gre- on everything, but getting people comfortable, and with a path, and working through and building consensus for it working with our management team. Our trustees are bored. I think it's a lot about that. And I think things like an annual letter can add clarity because it's a very fast moving world and sometimes you gotta step back at Hearst. I think, again, we're fortunate that whoever is in the ios spot is supported by group, trustees and board members and again, fabulous senior folks, and I said, I know it leaves somebody out, but did wanna mention you know, rich Malik who are executive vice president for business media Willie was integral to. Building that portfolio that we have of businesses today. So tell something interesting about Stephen Schwartz. Most people don't know. Well, interesting is a loaded word, and what do you do for fun? I love to read loved to read history. I think the one volume biography of Churchill that came out that the New York Times pushed hard is just really. I mean what a life what an amazing lie that rob. Andrew Roberts, just phenomenal. And like to be current and reading about policy in thinking, and you've recommended the trilogy the sapiens and. To home dad. So those are great by the Israeli he's fabulous. And so I've read all of those I like to read a lot, I like to watch a lot of ESPN. My wife says, you know, I hope you don't think this is actually counts. His business sitting there watching, you know, basketball game or football game and lacrosse games and travel or your wife likes travel. My wife is always planning something, and thank goodness because we get to see the world to her, and then finally, I'm trying to learn how to play golf, I think after a year and a half of lessons, making a little bit of progress. It's great because it concentrates the mind, there's a little ball, sitting on a nice piece of grass. The ball doesn't move and it's just so confounding the inability to hit it squarely is quite a challenge, but making progress my one recommendation for you on that topic of golf is, I would suggest you pick a ping pong. Instead, it's a lot, more efficient fifteen minutes, you're done you can go back home. Go back to your office, and you get the same kind of rush to say this about pink pie. I was a good ping pong player when I was a kid, we had a table in our basement, and a sister who was two years younger, and she would got invited to all the parties when we were in high school, and I wouldn't. So I would be in the basement playing with another guy who didn't get invited to the parties either we got very good at ping pong, but I had a humbling experience. And I think all of us do as we get older, and particularly as our kids get older ones, almost twenty one and one's about to turn seventeen and they became such great ping pong players. I taught them to play. And now I don't think they'll play with me, and if they would I wouldn't enjoy it, so we have much retired after seeing how far you can play it into your older ages. I pride ourselves that we have a ping pong table here in the office from day one, and even as grown, we've kept it in a flushed out all the best ping pong players media because they come over here to play some with a change of clothes because they're so. Serious about it. And they're so good at it that they come in, and they wanna make sure they don't get to work up. Steve. I appreciate your being here finished with us on the book that you're reading today that we should all take advice from, I'm reading so many at the same time right now and what I've really been trying to do. I'm reading about two or three all in the realm of machine learning or artificial intelligence, and I can't for the life of me. Remember the names of any of the three but I think all of this needs to really educate ourselves in that area and be on the cutting edge. And, you know, one last anecdote from the Churchill book, he wasn't just a visionary in terms of where he saw the menace of Hitler and Nazism. He was incredibly knowledgeable about the technology of the day. He had this quirky professor, who would come. Visit him all the time and make sure that he was totally current on military technology. Aviation technology. So when he took over he really was ready to lead the British war effort. I'm trying to learn from that all of his can learn from that none of us is innate -ly as knowledgeable 's, we should be about these areas, but we all have to both read as much as we can, but also find the people either inside our company or outside who really know about this, and make sure we're constantly talking this through because I think the implications are very great indeed side note, because you're gonna talk about golf, all the things are interested in, but really from my perspective where you thrive is in your style, and how you dress and I have that whenever I got up in the morning knowing on a C you it changes the way that I dress because I feel like after Brandt because they're one of the more impeccably-dressed executives out, not the fed anyone else out there. But you just adopt above. Well, let me just respond to that by saying since people can't see the two of us on this podcast as I sit here. I am in my usual uniform, which is kind. Kind of IBM salesman. Circa, nineteen sixty I have a navy blue suit on a white shirt, a blue tie and black high socks. I'm looking over there a bore cough, who looked like he just stepped out of a plug one of our publications Esquire. I mean, there is a subtle check shirt, there's a striped tie that goes exactly what the colors of the check. There's a very interesting, shall we say, I know he spent some time in London. There's a very British looking kind of cardigan and the sued has a lot of subtle texture to it. I mean this man is really well dressed, and he knows it. So the last time area came and visited Hearst he was as turned out as he is today, and he insisted that we take a picture. So my sister took a picture. And then area had the picture framed and he sent it to the house, and we're not sure who did it may have been one of the boys may been somebody's who here's a picture. So in our family room, we have pictures of all of our family members, you know, the kids cousins, nephews nieces, whatever and one day, I'm looking at it with my wife and we're both looking. We says, how did bore cough getting our family collection? So there is the picture of area at me right in the middle of the sports family election. So that just for me underscores the ubiquity of area, bore cough, he is truly these elig of modern New York life. Live ratio, many ways to cover a client, and this is one of our. Coach. Well, I'm glad that were on audio and not being visualized. We look nothing like the way. Okay. Well, thank you for being with us on kindred cast. And I look forward to the continuing to learn from you and our collaboration. And watching you thrive both in giving back as well as in your sheep executive rollovers. Well, thank you area agree, pleasure. Thank you very much. I hope you enjoyed our show today. If you wanna check out any prior episodes, you can find us on apple podcasts, Spotify or wherever, you listen feel free to leave a review there. As it helps people find the show. You can also follow us on Instagram, Twitter and Facebook at kindred cast for behind the scenes photos, and info, keep listening and see you next time. Shen.

Hearst corporation William Randolph Hearst CEO Disney Frank hurston ABC executive Steve Senator George Hearst president and CEO David ESPN chairman New York Times founder Frank Bennett Fitch Ratings David Brooks
Trump's Immigration Stance Hurts US Economy: Cato's Bier (Podcast)

P&L With Pimm Fox and Lisa Abramowicz

29:15 min | 2 years ago

Trump's Immigration Stance Hurts US Economy: Cato's Bier (Podcast)

"Welcome to the Bloomberg. No podcast. I'm Pimm FOX along with my co host Lisa Abramowicz. Each day, we bring you the most important note worthy and useful interviews for you and your money. Whether you're at the grocery store or the trading floor. Find the Bloomberg PNL podcast on apple podcasts. Soundcloud and Bloomberg dot com. This is day. Twenty one of the partial government shutdown this shutdown began days before Christmas over a standoff between President Donald Trump and congressional Democrats over funding for the president's long promised border wall. Here to help us understand the issue is David beer. He is an immigration policy analyst for the Cato Institute in Washington DC, David beer, thank you for being with us as an immigration policy. Analysts. Could we just go through some of the issues that the president has cited as the need for this border wall? Let's begin with drug smuggling, what are the facts? Well, the fact is that about ninety percent of all the hard drugs, you're talking about cocaine methamphetamine, heroin and Noel are traffic through ports of entry. So they're carried in luggage. They're sent through the mail there. Brought on airplanes. They are not smuggled between ports of entry where border wall would go. Really the only drug that is primarily smuggled between ports of entry is marijuana. And marijuana smuggling has declined about eighty percent since then legalization of marijuana in several states starting in twenty fourteen. So the demand is now being done legally domestically in the United States rather than from Mexico. And so the need for a border wall. Between ports of entry to stop drug smuggling. Just doesn't add. Up. You're going to spend billions upon billions of dollars for this project when most of the drugs and most of the hard drugs are coming through the ports of entry where they're understaffed, and you know, need more support than they have right now. David, what do you think the President Trump actually wants? I think he wants a border wall. No, I mean in terms of immigration policy. You know in terms of legal immigration. I think he's been quite clear that he wants a lot less of it. Whether you're talking about refugees asylum seekers people reuniting with their family members, really the only people he says that he wants our so called merit based immigrants, but every plan that he supports to move our system in that direction doesn't actually increase merit-based immigration hardly at all well, cutting legal immigration dramatically. Do you think that that is the correct policy for the US economy and for and for security? Oh, absolutely. Not I on the security side the constraints on legal immigration, actually drive illegal immigration. If we were admitting people at ports of entry. If we were issuing visas in their home countries, they wouldn't be showing up in caravans. They wouldn't be crossing the border illegally. We would be able to do background check to be able to do medical checks people would becoming safely legally through a process where we can vet them would be far better situation than the one that we have now from an economic perspective were seeing, you know, the president's bragging every day about how great the economy is how we're growing jobs hell unemployment's at record lows, and if you look at, you know, our visa, you know, one of the visa programs that is available for non for seasonal guest workers in non-agricultural industries. We have a cap on that and. Basically in one day that cap was filled and there were three times more jobs demanded than slots available for that. So the demand is there. These are people these are companies willing to do recruitment of US workers spend thousands of dollars to go through the illegal immigration process because of these outdated cabs, you know, they're not able to fill those positions through the legal immigration system. David if you were asked to testify before congress and asked whether there's a security crisis on the southern border of the United States. How would you respond? I would say there's by no measure security crisis that our southern border. If you look at in fiscal year twenty eighteen the number of apprehensions for each border patrol agent, which is the best measure of illegal immigration that you could have each border agent was apprehending just one person every two weeks. So for the vast majority of the time border patrol agents are not bringing people into their custody, which is a sign that we do have the situation under control. Maybe we need to shift resources around. The second fact that you need to consider is that half of the people that they are bringing into their custody are simply turning themselves in their asylum seekers. They actually are seeking agents out to say, please bring Hindi your custody. I wanna get part of the legal system. I wanna go through the process. And so the idea that we're just seeing this huge influx of. People trying to sneak into our country to commit crimes in this in this country. It's just absolutely untrue. If you look at border patrol figures on the number of criminals that they actually apprehend crossing the border illegally. You just have less than a thousand of the more than four hundred thousand people that they apprehended in in twenty eight teen had violent criminal convictions or histories now that's a thousand too many, but we're apprehending them. And if we could focus on them and not on the people who are just trying to reunite with their families or seek economic opportunity or seek safety from you know, violent threats in their home countries. That would be a better situation for everyone from a security perspective. So David you work for the Cato Institute which was founded by Charles coke and funded by the coke brothers has sort of known as speaking with among. Others Republican representatives. And I'm wondering how receptive. They are to what you're saying. Think there's a growing understanding that the economy is growing in such a way that you absolutely need an outlet for companies to hire people legally. I, you know, I if you look at the partisanship that dominates this town. It's going to be difficult to get the reforms that are needed simply because we have a partisan impasse about this border wall. And it's really holding up everything else in terms of immigration reform. So I do think substantial portion of the Republican party still is in the camp of we need to have legal immigration. We need to fulfil this demand in a legal way deal with the people who are here illegally for many years and a reasonable manner. But I do also think and recognize that there's a significant part of the Republican party. That's not in that camp. And they just want fewer illegal immigrants and legal. Migrants. They just want fewer people from foreign countries in our country. We got to leave it there. But thank you very much for being with us. David beer, immigration policy analyst for Cato Institute based in Washington DC on day twenty one of the partial federal government shutdown over funding for a border wall. Request by President Donald Trump. It is risk on again in credit markets flows in guilds down borrowers coming back to the market. Joining us here in our Bloomberg interactive brokers studios. Tom Atteberry chief investment officer and founding partner of EPA. He manages more than six billion dollars for the firm, which is based in Los Angeles. Tom. Thank you so much for being here. Are you feeling risk on right now you feeling like it's time to go out there and dive back into the credit markets would be would be. No, I mean, when you think about just as an example, look at investment grade corporates we've got roughly half of them. Now are triple b and if you look at the sort of EBITDA number you look at debt look at that ratio. You realize his high it was in two thousand eight minutes highs it was in two thousand both of those the heights of recession. So you think about that and go do I think the economy's gonna go into recession or slowdown in some fashion over the next several? Oh, years not an unreasonable expectations. You're already highly levered. You also have to think about the fact that they're gonna need to refinance some of that debt. What if they need to refinance it at a higher level may not be able to do it as well in a lower cash flow environment? So we don't see value. Now, if I compare December, it was extremely overvalued. Now, it's just over value. Talk. If you can about the idea that debt growing faster than GDP, and we could even connect that to what happens in household, excuse me. For example, if you are taking on debts in a household at a greater pace than your income is accelerating. Everybody knows that's not a winning recipe. Why does that exist when it comes to investments? It's tore view in in within the non-sovereign non-sovereign world on government world. It's not a sustainable and we've seen periods of the past with this occurred in the end result. Was you mentioned the household and you think back to the sixth through eighth period. A household had had to go through a rather cathartic reevaluation of their balance sheet right dead off get into all sorts of you know, to get themselves cleaned up. Again, you think back to two thousand period. Time corporate America. Did you think about the corporate America problems that went on there? That's Enron and world common in taiko. So it is not a sustainable from from a corporate standpoint, you can say the same thing about government just much harder to figure out how long they lax our right? Yeah. Went to stop. But when does it stop for the corporate borrow it will stop for the corporate borrower? When you think about them today? They're able to support the debt today because their interest cost is low their leverage is high. But looking forward if you start to raise rates for them to refinance that benefit goes away. They still got too much debt. There's a chart that we use. We've used with clients that shows implied. Ratings. So you just take like SNP or Moody's, and they say half of is triple beat, right? Well, if you just base that. Analysis off of the leverage component not the interest coverage. Komo just to leverage component instead of half of them being triple be only about thirty five percent. Triple b well, that's nice. The problem is the fifteen percent become double being big. They go to go to the right, which is a way of telling you that look this is not sustainable if you rate, you know, they unable to get that debt down. You're going to have to do some some sort of restructurings. So there's a question of long term versus short term because in the long term, everything that you're saying make sense in the short term, people don't see necessarily a recession. So what are you buying? Now. How do you determine how to balance the short term and long term? So we look at the world for a corporate bond investment. Whether it's a high yield or a Bank loan or investment grade, you think in terms of three to five years, and so we look at that and go this doesn't look attractive from valuation standpoint, what's not commit or capital there. Conversely, if I think of high quality bonds things that are single rated in. Higher. We Willie comfortable you're going to get paid back. You realize that over the last couple years is the fed sorta systematically raise the fed funds rate from twenty five basis points to the two and a half. I took a two year treasury. It was twenty five basis points in its peak was what two eighty two fifty now, and I took a three year treasury and almost got it to three percent. You look at those high quality return rates, and you go, wait a minute. That's higher than inflation. I don't have to worry about the credit problems. I can go by that high quality security that's three or four year, maybe two year and get a reasonable turn this environment. So what's how much has the balanced shifted in your portfolio treasuries to credit? So if we had this conversation in two thousand fifteen and sixteen I was roughly twenty three percent and things that were triple being below. It's at seven today we had that conversation. Then I would have said I have zero in treasuries, then those three and five year treasury's make up about five percent of the portfolio, but I've got other high quality inves-. Restaurants that are in that same three four year maturity range because they made sense force from so the risk return tradeoff, you're looking at investors. Spend a lot of time comparing their results to those of other investors. Do you believe that benchmarking leads to poor decisions and should people benchmark against something such as inflation, rather what they should could or would have invested in hindsight. Our view is is much. What are you trying to accomplish with the capital, you've deployed in our particular strategy is very capital, preservation oriented? So if I think about it in those terms, okay, what do I need? What should I be doing in capital preservation? We'll the first thing I should have an absolute positive return in our strategy to twelve month pariahs in for that. But I also need to at least get inflation to protect its buying power. And should try to get something that maybe one hundred basis points over inflation. The interesting thing is when you start to look at the investment world that way, I'm indifferent. To what the benchmark is. I look at what could my own that helps me accomplish those two objectives and stick look for securities. That might do that it one narrows the number security look down a lot and your is many things in the bond market just to us. Don't make sense because they don't help us accomplish our objective. I think investors should go much more away from benchmarks comparing myself to somebody else and going what is my objective of this capital? What am I trying to accomplish? Thank you. For helping us understand this and giving us a different perspective. Appreciate you having on this morning. Well, we didn't even mention your former radio career. No that it helped prepare you for investing. You know, interestingly. It helped me with presentation skills and trying to explain things to large audiences, and that's probably it. And it was a heck of a lot of fun. When I did it. Thanks, very much has been fun. Having you on Tom at berry is the chief investment officer and founding partner of F P A. And of course, he helps to manage over six billion dollars based in Los Angeles. And they recently launched the F P A, flexible income fund, I Pacific. The government shutdown is entering its twenty first day without a resolution in sight. The question becomes at. What point does this gridlock? Imperil? The US is triple a rating joining us now James McCormack global head of sovereign debt at Fitch Ratings training us from London James. Thank you so much for being with us. Fitch Ratings has sounded a bit of an alarm saying that if this government shutdown does drag on much longer it will consider downgraded to the top rating that the US currently enjoys please explain yet. That's yeah. That's right. I guess there's a couple of things really come into focus really the longer. This goes on one is consistent with no we put out last week. We said, you know, this foreshadows or more pronounced destabilization policy making that would include the standoff over the debt limit which is really much more important than than the shot. Down. Then I think we'd have to be quite concerned about that. And and the second sort of parallel track where we're thinking about is that the policy-making framework matters so much in the US because there are some pretty big fiscal policy. Challenges ahead in addition to the debt limit so the fiscal deterioration that's underway with deficits in the order five and a half to six percent and the debt level where it is without at around one hundred percent the way we measure it without a resolution. Incite kind of sets the fiscal trajectory of the US on a slightly different path and what we would see in other AAA. So we do have to think about those context. Well, chairman Powell drum Palo of the Federal Reserve said at the economic club meeting that he's concerned about the level of the US debt. And that it is something that they have really no power over as a result. What do you think will will it take to get lawmakers to focus on it? Well, that's a very good question. Because lawmakers have not been focused on it for some time. This is a debt burden that has been creeping higher. Congress has not yet taken on the issues that need to be resolved and the primary issue the deficit continues to grow in addition to the tax cut that tax cuts. We've just seen is really on the mandatory spending side, and that is going to be a very difficult issue for for politicians to to embrace. But at some point down the line that does need to be addressed. If you look at Congressional Budget Office projections over the next ten years. It's very clear that there are two items two items on the spending side where things need to be things. Need to be addressed one is on the mandatory spending. And and the other is really interested. So both of those things rising very quickly to the interest burden. Can't do much about that unless the debt comes down but mandatory spending something can be done about that. But it's very very difficult politically to get agreement on that. James is there sort of a deadline for which the US has to come for come to a resolution for you to stop taking a look at the AAA rating. In other words, how long does this have to go on before you really do consider stripping the US of the top rating? Yeah. It's not so much about the shutdown. It's really more about the debt ceiling is you may you may know the debt ceiling comes back into force at the beginning of March. And then the treasury begins to us what it calls extraordinary measures at that point. So there's probably a couple of months before that really begins to buy when we last put took any rating action on the US was to put it on rating watch negative in that was back in two thousand thirteen when the when the period during which those extrordinary measures operate with coming to an end. And there was no resolution in sight, we were within forty eight hours of the so-called ex- date. And I think we would need to be a position similar to that before we thought about rating actions. So sometime down the road that I don't understand though, if these situations keep arising, and it does not appear that gridlock is going to ease anytime soon in Washington, why not downgrade the US now. Yeah. I mean, we kind of down this road before but not quite as per nounce. Then that's why were that's why we're talking about it now because we want to make sure that you know, market participants and other observers understand our position if were to take the rating action on the US, we want that to be as well flagged as possible. And so we are seeking about it now because it's an issue that we think the markets should be made aware of. But we're not in a position to suggest that this is definitively going to happen. So there's still plenty of time for congress, and and the White House to act to resolve both the shutdown and then subsequently to to address the debt limit. And if that happens as it has in the past then the AAA rating is is probably sound James. If you believe that a recession is coming in twenty nineteen would that change any of your ratings? I don't think so I mean the rating is supposed to be resilient. Through economic Saigo. We don't see a recession in fact in in twenty nineteen. We don't see a recession in twenty twenty either. We certainly see slowing growth, particularly as the fiscal stimulus begins to fade in twenty nineteen and we will have weaker growth towards the end of the year. And in twenty twenty we see growth only in around two percent in this year. We see it at sort of two point six percent. So definitely slowing of growth, but not a recession. And I don't think we would be wanting to suggest that the US rating was under under any kind of threat from from a normal economic cycle, including one that was inclusive of recession. Well, we're gonna leave it there. But thanks very much for being with James McCormack is global head of global sovereigns and supernational at Fitch Ratings. Speaking about the US sovereign debt rating the time when there's a bit of buying the treasury market right now. And Heiser Busch inbev considering an initial public offering of its Asian operations here to tell us more is a France while Sonal veal, he is the senior beverage analyst at Robbo Bank, Francois. Thank you very much for being with us. Why is an highs Busch inbev looking to split off this Asian business. And what else can thank you for having me on the show. And I think that good question would be like, it's the company in trouble. And that depends on like from whose perspective you are looking at this. I think if you look from the shareholder's perspective they've had a very rough time since October two thousand sixteen till now share process roughly hall and recently also the dividend has been cut so sold to large shareholders have had a tough time. And probably are not that happy with the way things are going. I think if you're a bull told or however you like, quite okay, I think the Castro pets company is good. And also if you look at you perations, I would say that the company is not a disaster. But more like a disappointment in recent years and recent months really struggling with a series of Anheuser Busch. Inbev moves this week. They sold fifty two and a half billion dollars of debt pushing out the maturity's a bit. But they they tendered for less than they borrowed. They're increasing their overall debt load with this. This. They're paying higher rates than they did last year when they borrowed and now they're trying to perhaps do an IPO maybe some of that cash to pay down their debt. Can you understand what the overarching strategy here of the company is? Probably is like a little bit preparing for for an expected things. I think the company is already like a client's conservatively-financed but undoubtedly that that was quite a high level. And I think the company has seen like headwinds in the United States where be assails slowing and losing market share to craft beer and the and to to imports. I think also like in some of the emerging markets they've had like a currency impacts. So I think that they're probably looking at like how to make the financing more bulletproof in case lock. It's more to come. Do you think that it's going to be a popular initial public offering it takes place? We'll investors want a piece of it. I think if you look at like the operations of Abyan Beffa cross to world, I think that definitely like Asia Pacific has been like area where they've been very strong. If we look at those operations about three quarters of it would be in China, and although China with like a decade ago could read it was a lot of volume, but very little value or profit to be achieved that has really changed and AB inbev has been like the driving force in premium, my sation and Chinese markets. And one of the interesting things that we found was that. If you look, for example, at the bad, why sales you see that's a in two thousand seventeen China over to the US largest market for but lies a full Eum. So the company has been doing really well there, I think one question would be like can they continue to do? So. And we think that's the needed to they can. So if probably will be quite popular him. It's so ironic isn't aunt that Budweiser which has been sort of quintessential American. Fear is now having greater success in China at a time when US are locked in a lot of tight negotiations prince wide love to get your opinion on the credit rating Anheuser-Busch inbev because they were downgraded at the end of last year because of their high debt load and their lack of progress in dressing, it do you think that immunizing their balance sheet the way that they have is an indication that they won't care if they're down graded to joke. I find it very difficult. We oughta experts within Rabbo Bank who had a position to talk about that. So I like to Boston that question if I may it's not really my my expertise. I'm wondering going forward where will the big growth driver for the company? I think what was really interesting to look at Africa. And I think that's in recent months attachment a little bit like under an amplified by by democracy. It's I think if we look at Africa book capitec on some she is still incredibly low we see that about tweak. What's of consumption of beer in Africa is like home? Brewed and we also see that relation gross with three percent per year Abyan before very strong and confident of the SAB Miller acquisition. So I think to they'll benefit from volume growth, but also from like people who can afford like a little bit better be spend, more so Africa. I think it'll be really interesting for like the mid to long-term for company and just quickly give you about thirty seconds the distribution network that Anheuser-Busch inbev have is global and pretty good. Is there an opportunity for them to sell other products? That addition to beer. I definitely think. So I mean, I see more like a strong distribution platform with brands rather than the other way round. And there has been speculation whether it'd be I should get together with luck a software company. And if that's the case, you obviously want to strong share price, and today's move could make little sense prints up Francois Sunnyvale. Thank you so much for being with us, Francois. Sonal Avila's senior beverage analyst at rubbing international coming to us from London. Anheuser Busch is definitely trying to fend off some of the headwinds that faced over the past twelve months. It has had a pretty rough time of it today, though, we are seeing a little pop in their shares up about three point three percent on the news that they are planning to spin off their Asian operations in initial public offering. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg PNL podcast. You can subscribe. And listen to interviews at apple podcasts. Soundcloud, or whatever podcast platform, you prefer. I'm Pimm FOX. I'm on Twitter at Pimm FOX. I'm on Twitter at Lisa Abramowicz. One before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide on Bloomberg radio.

United States David beer Bloomberg congress President Donald Trump Washington Pimm FOX James McCormack president Cato Institute Busch policy analyst Fitch Ratings apple Los Angeles Lisa Abramowicz Tom Atteberry Anheuser Busch marijuana
NPR News: 03-27-2020 9PM ET

NPR News Now

04:39 min | 1 year ago

NPR News: 03-27-2020 9PM ET

"Live from NPR news in Washington. I'm Jack Speer. President trump has signed the largest health emergency package in US history more than two trillion dollars. In Corona virus. Relief will soon become available to American individuals and families healthcare systems and businesses big and small embarrassed. Claudia Gusanos reports. The House approved the measure. A voice vote today. House lawmaker spread out through the Chamber and its public galleries under new social distancing guidelines to approve the measure. The motion is adopted. They shouted down at least one member who voted no Kentucky Republican Thomas Massie. Who Ask for a roll-call soon. After House leaders held a ceremony to sign the bill and send it to the president. The plan includes direct payments of up to twelve hundred dollars too. Many Americans extend unemployment insurance raising the weekly benefit by six hundred dollars. The plan also offers billions in aid new lending to businesses hospitals and state and local governments clotting. Npr News Washington. New York Governor Andrew. Cuomo said today. He wants the state to build four more temporary hospitals in New York City. Before Krona's virus cases peak the state is seeking authorization from the trump administration to add four thousand beds in the Bronx Brooklyn and Queens. Currently thousands are hospitalized in New York City as a result of cove in nineteen disease caused by the corona virus. There have been more than five hundred New York state there now. More than fifteen hundred. Us deaths tied to the disease. Cuomo also said he thinks schools in the states will remain close for another two weeks to at least April. Fifteenth officials in Texas are confirming an outbreak of coveted. Nineteen at a state run center for people with disabilities from Kera Santa Jose OTC Sidey. Sita who sean reports there now. At least thirty nine corner virus deaths there along with dozens of residents at the Denton State supported. Living Center to staff members have also tested positive. The facility north of Dallas provides care to people with intellectual and developmental disabilities. Dr Matt. Richardson is the county's public health director. He believes this. Cluster stems from community spread. More than one hundred cases have been confirmed throughout the county because of the vulnerability and the the medical of some of those residents It is a concern and we do anticipate there may be more positives. All non-essential visits have been suspended at thirteen state supported living centers across Texas. I'm sorry to his son in Dallas as part of an ongoing effort to prop up the economy. The New York Fed says it will buy billions of dollars of treasuries daily starting with seventy five billion Monday of next week and continuing through Wednesday after that the New York Fed says it will buy sixty billion dollars worth of treasuries a day. Thursday and Friday stocks gave ground following a three-day rally falling around four percent. Even as the House approved President Trump signed the two point two trillion corner virus relief measure the. Dow was down nine hundred fifteen points. Today you're listening to NPR. A UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA SAYS IT IS RAMPING UP. Production of hand sanitizer to distribute to hospitals in the region and to the Navajo Nation member station K. J. Z. Z. In Phoenix Jill Ryan Reports University of Arizona. President Robert Robbins says. Researchers are working as fast as they can everything. Supplies are limited. Labs are predicting toddlers and believe or sipping two hundred bottle to the Navajo nation. Among many people in the Navajo Nation. Do not have readily available sources of clean water and the tribal president has declared a public health state of emergency because of the corona virus along with the hand sanitizer. The university says it's experts will be on the creation of corona virus testing kits as well as doing immunology research for NPR news. I'm Jill Ryan in Phoenix southwest. Ceo Gerry. Kelly says the airline is losing big money on every single flight is travel demand continues to slump over. Airline execs are expressing some optimism about fifty billion in grants and loans set aside for passenger airlines as part of the massive rescue package approved today. However many airline CEOS also have not ruled out possible lay-offs or furloughs through the fall Fitch Ratings Service says it's continuing its AAA sovereign rating for. Us debt. The service did say there are risks to it amid the krona virus pandemic Fitch said the high fiscal deficits and debt which are already rising as a result of the economic impact of the corona virus pandemic or starting to effect. Us credit strength which includes the dollar and financing flexibility added that the risk of a near-term negative rating action has climbed. I'm Jack Speer. Npr News in Washington.

president New York City US Cuomo Washington Navajo Nation Jack Speer Npr NPR trump Texas Dallas President Robert Robbins NPR New York NPR Claudia Gusanos Fitch Denton State
Fitch Predicts CRR Rule to Weigh on Nigerian Banks Income

Newscast - Africa

01:39 min | 1 year ago

Fitch Predicts CRR Rule to Weigh on Nigerian Banks Income

"The affiliate podcast shows the stories of multifaceted Africans one episode at a time. The podcast aims to uncover the untold stories of modern and millennial applicants based in various parts of the world. Each episode gives listeners an opportunity to learn and experience conversations that showcase who they are and global perspectives in our ever changing world fish also listen and subscribe to. The athlete podcast on spotify or wherever you listen to your favorite podcast. You can also follow at athletes podcast on all social media platforms. He'll listening to the news at this hour on Africa Business Radio. Fitch. Ratings has predicted that the Central Bank of Nigeria cash reserve requirement policy will hurt Najjar and bands earnings according to the senior director for euro middle. Eastern Africa bank rates since at Fitch. Mahin. This on Janka said the Central Bank of non trivial has been highly interventionist. He said while countries like South, Africa and Kenya followed the global trend of giving banks small room to lend and Jerry has engaged with see are at two point five percent the central bank also dips into the accounts when lenders fill. To Extend Sixty, five percents of the deficit has loans a measure that was introduced to stimulate credits mindset that and other penalties push defective hit on capitol between forty percent and fifty percent, and that wasn't news at this time. When Africa Business Radio you can continue to this in life online at www dot Africa business radio DOT COM or via mobile APP. I am Rachel she into. Thank you for listening.

Africa Central Bank of Nigeria Fitch dot Africa Africa Rachel spotify senior director Najjar Janka Kenya Jerry fifty percent forty percent five percent
NPR News: 04-20-2020 10PM ET

NPR News Now

04:39 min | 1 year ago

NPR News: 04-20-2020 10PM ET

"Live from NPR news. I'm Jack Speer President Donald Trump. Today's Daily Corona virus briefing said Americans must continue to practice social distancing. The president also said he is increasingly optimistic. Congress will reach a deal soon. Aren't replenishing government loan program to help small business and trump said there have been improvements in corona virus testing procedures which he blamed in part on lack of understanding by governors states need to assess their complete inventory of available capacity. Substates have far more capacity than they actually understand and it is a complex subject. But some of the governor's didn't understand it The governor as an example Pritzker from Illinois did not understand his capacity. Trump also said with oil prices at never before seen low levels. He plans to put an additional seventy five million barrels of oil in the nation's Strategic Petroleum Reserve New York Governor Andrew Cuomo says new testing sites for the Krona virus are rolling out soon as public housing buildings in New York City and bears. Hansie the Wong reports. The Governor says the State is trying to address the needs of some of the city's most vulnerable residents it. Testing sites are coming more than a month at the outbreak began in New York. City near Governor. Andrew Cuomo says about a half million cloth face masks are set to be delivered to residents of New York. City's public housing as well many people in hallways higher number of people in the apartment just a higher occupancy that's where the virus spreads. Cuomo is calling for All New York residents who are not essential workers to stick with the state. Stay at home. Order your irresponsible here. You're reckless here. You could die or you can get infected. Come Home Kiss your mother and your mother dies on Sunday. Cuomo says four hundred seventy eight people in the state died from Cova Nineteen Hansie long here. News Newark Okay. American oil benchmark West Texas Intermediate fell by more than seventy percent. Today is global oil markets. Continue to grapple with the pandemic driven collapse in demand in Texas the crash in crude oil prices regulators considering mandating production cuts to stabilize the market is most blue. Shell reports from member station K. Ut in Austin the state is not used that power and about fifty years has divided industry most big oil companies oppose it smaller independent oil producers view production limits as a lifeline. Kirk Edwards is the head of lego petroleum. The bigger guys plenty of market waiting Papa and access and plenty ways door. They're all independence. Do not if there's some way to allow fairness then you personally be responsible for the demise of the Texas independent producer this year state regulators will again take up the plan on Tuesday. Production caps in Texas would need to be done in coordination with other states and countries to have a chance of boosting oil prices for NPR news. I'm most shell. In Austin stocks plunged on Wall Street following oil prices lower. The Dow dropped five hundred ninety. Two points the Nasdaq was down. Eighty nine points this is NPR federal officials. Say They hope to begin? Sharing information on the number of Kobe. Nineteen deaths at nursing homes as a means of spotting trends of infection and spreading communities move comes as industry officials and other leaders have called on federal health experts. Do More to track infections including doing a better job of getting testing and protective equipment to areas. That need it. The agency that oversees nursing homes says it hopes to have that data by week's end a leading ratings agency is cut Hong Kong's credit rating. Npr's John Warwick reports corona virus in politics or behind the decision Fitch Ratings last downgraded Hong Kong's long-term foreign currency issuer rating in September. It said anti-government street protests had dented perceptions of the city's business environment and political stability now it says economic challenges from the Corona Virus outbreak are compounding the problem and justify second downgrade the downgrade also stems from Hong Kong's deepening integration with China fish says Beijing has been taking more vocal role in Hong Kong affairs than at any time since the city was returned to China from Britain. In one thousand nine hundred seven just days ago. Police arrested a group of leading pro-democracy activists in connection with the protests in a statement the Hong Kong government expressed disappointment over the credit rating downgrade. John Rich. Npr News People magazine owner Meredith Corporation. Says it intends to cut pay for upwards of sixty percent of its workers also posits dividend program is advertising. Revenue takes a major during the krono virus outbreak. The Iowa based company also rescinded financial guidelines. Meredith joins other big media companies including mcclatchy looking to slash costs through pay cuts furloughs and layoffs. I'm Jack Speer NPR news.

Governor Andrew Cuomo New York City Donald Trump Npr Hong Kong NPR Jack Speer Texas Hong Kong president Austin Congress Npr Cova Nineteen Hansie Meredith Corporation
The economic legacy of Zimbabwes Robert Mugabe

Marketplace Morning Report with David Brancaccio

08:22 min | 2 years ago

The economic legacy of Zimbabwes Robert Mugabe

"This marketplace podcast is brought to you by m._d. Anderson cancer center home to one of the nation's largest cancer clinical trial programs of its kind providing hope to patients through new approaches in detection action and advanced therapies more making cancer history dot com. This marketplace podcast is brought to you by indeed. Are you hiring with indeed. You can post a job in minutes set up screener questions russians than zero in on your shortlist qualified candidates using an online dashboard get started today and indeed dot com slash marketplace. That's indeed dot com slash marketplace. The strong man who helped deliver independence in zimbabwe and then drove its economy into the ground has died at ninety five live from london. This is the marketplace morning report report from the b._b._c. World service victoria craig good morning robert mugabe. The former president of zimbabwe had been ill for some time he died today. In a hospital in singapore the mr mugabe led the country's independence push in one thousand nine hundred eighty his later years were mired in controversy that sparked an economic crisis the b._b._c.'s milton and cozy has more from johannesburg hannah's burke robert gabriel mugabe is still revered as a liberator. He left a mixed legacy. There are many people still see him as is a dictator in the late nineteen ninety s he began a land redistribution program and used people called war veterans to to invade white owned farms saying that very few minority of white people in zimbabwe still owned vast tracts of arable land he wanted to level the playing fields as he described it and that's when the country's economy tanked so it's that controversial land reform programme that led to an economic collapse in zimbabwe once known as africa's breadbasket and it's still suffering from that today oh yes indeed other people saw it as a way of clinging to power remember mugabe came into power in nineteen eighty. He ruled the country for nearly four decades. He was ousted in a military coup in november twenty seventeen so now zimbabwe is on a recovery plan. They have a new minister professor tooling. He is is battling to try and get the currency stabilized to get the economy growing again but it's not easy times are still tough. They are battling unemployment which is very high crime as well shortages of energy power cuts in zimbabwe at rolling pretty much every night right people only have five hours of power and that affects the economy quite severely. Is there a lesson in his time in power for the future of the country in its economy. You know the idea that robert mugabe dies in hospital in singapore is in itself a telling story it. It is a lesson that when you are in power make sure that you deliver on the key aspects of your governance the b._b._c.'s milton cozy. Thank thank you so much. Thank you staying on the continent. South african companies are facing boycotts from other african nations after week of looting and violence predominantly targeting foreign owned businesses. The b._b._c.'s will bain has the story your average trip to the shops. It's the sound of shopping carts being used as weapons to help trash south african grocery stores shop right in the nigerian financial hub of leg off furious outta taking what they see as revenge on south african burns in retaliation for a spate of xenophobic phobic attacks on foreign owned businesses across south africa is by no means just nigerians affected or retaliating with boycotts on african brands and stores though tanzania's is national airline has suspended flights to the country but warner trade is to take extreme caution and zambia's foreign minister joseph malindi court on the south african government to get a grip rip. It is something that is happening in south africa and it is not happening outside of africa in zambia any vista walks freely from anybody new battle the world so it is my prayer that this thing will be brought to the violence is rooted in poverty so i forget has an official unemployment rate of twenty eight percent and is much higher still among the young many poorer south africans blamed foreigners for taking their jobs so african government minister lindiwe anyway. Zulu said the problem was big in south africa alone. We are facing child that is just beyond south africa these in african program because look the movement movement of people in the african continent searching for a better life for themselves is nothing you with it doesn't end up just being security in ends up being a problem of an economy that is also not doing very win at people who are becoming very roll up on defected this unemployment this inner quantity. There's all those things that come with the nympheas of poverty still disruption both in and outside. The country continues pan-african on african telecoms john n._t._n. For example closed all its stores in nigeria until further notice stores in central business district in johannesburg remained closed in the short term diplomatic gone says a needed but in the longer term much more difficult economic ones are going to have to be found on the b._b._c.'s will bain for marketplace. Let's do the numbers china's. The central bank has cut the amount of money banks have to keep in reserve by half a percentage point. The move is aimed at stimulating the economy and offsetting the impact of u._s. Tariffs hong kong's hang seng rose half a percent despite a debt downgrade from fitch ratings agency which cited business uncertainty after months of protests. Let's friday and that might mean payday for you <unk>. How do you prefer to take your paycheck and u._s. Dollars or cryptocurrency an increasing number of countries are allowing employees to be paid in cryptocurrencies new zealand. This week joined the u._s. the u._k. And australian governments in issuing tax guidelines for companies paying in that way the b._b._c.'s ben brown reports work is a new zealand canal opt to receive either part or all of their pay and cryptocurrency for stewart in christ church. It was a no brainer making it much cheaper to send and receive money from friends. Overseas sees heading. This cryptocurrency is way more flexible than having new allen dulles in my bank account since i can seem to anyway anywhere in the world i'll pay much much much lower. Fees and a growing number of people are following suit to do it. Legally staff must be paid in regula regula fixed amounts and must be easily convertible into a government issued currency like the new zealand dolla ross counter. Brown is the head of bit prime company which sells cryptocurrency. He says there's been rising demand particularly encrypted currencies which are linked traditional payment forms like the u._s. Stola always say the greatest and i and stable coins <hes> such as the u._s. dollar for example because it doesn't have the same volatility that many cryptocurrencies therapies do so that the most stable way for people to receive payments and cryptocurrency but volatility isn't the only worry this hundreds of millions of dollars have been stolen in crypto currency hacks so before you opt to get your monthly paycheck this way make sure you can keep your crypto currencies on c. safe on the b._b._c.'s ben brown for marketplace. Finally it's been twenty five years since rachel ross monica chandler joey and phoebe landed on our couches. Could we a be anymore. Excited probably not friends is still one of the most successful tv shows ever made and warner. Media has reportedly paid for one hundred twenty five million dollars. Take the show off net flicks and onto streaming service h._b._o. Max set to launch in the spring share with me your favorite friends moments. I have many of my own in london victoria craig with the marketplace morning report from the b._b._c. world service. This marketplace podcast is brought to you by indeed when it comes to hiring. You don't have time to waste you need help getting in your shortlist of qualified candidates fast. That's why you need indeed. Dot com post a job in minutes set up screener questions than zero in on qualified candidates using an intuitive online dashboard board and when you need to hire fast accelerate your results with sponsored jobs new users can try for free at indeed dot com slash marketplace. That's indeed dot com slash marketplace terms conditions and quality standards apply.

b._b._c. robert mugabe zimbabwe ben brown johannesburg london south africa south africa Anderson cancer center africa zambia africa china allen dulles president professor fitch bain
General Electric Faces $92 Billion Sales Backlog

WSJ What's News

08:46 min | 2 years ago

General Electric Faces $92 Billion Sales Backlog

"Discover Milan Italy with WSJ magazine and into Garay. Join WSJ magazine editors for behind the scenes access in Milan. As you meet the city's most influential tastes makers dine at top restaurants. Visit the private villas of late coamo and much more book. This once in a lifetime trip at Indy. Gory dot com slash WSJ magazine or call six four six seven eight zero eight three eight three. With what's news from the Wall Street Journal. I'm Ameri for totally New York. General Electric is facing a ninety two billion dollar sales backlog, a backlog in general is a a good thing or bad thing. And depends on what's in it. And for GE. That's the big question is what's in it? You don't know. It's an because they're commercial grievance between whoever's buying products and services from g so there's a little bit of a mystery Wall Street Journal reporter Thomas, Greta has the details in just a moment. But first here are some other top stories. We're following a federal judge has voided Paul manafort's plea agreement saying the former Trump campaign manager made intentional false statements to investigators even though he agreed to a plea deal requiring him to tell the truth. Prosecutors accused Manafort of breaching the September agreement saying he had lied many times in sessions with investigators and before the grand jury. The ruling voids the government's obliga- shins under the plea deal to offer leniency Manafort is set to be sentenced on March thirteenth. Democrats on the White House are at odds over how to enforce trade. Rules ahead of a congressional vote on the North American Free trade agreement. Democrats want to make sure Mexico will enforce environmental protections and allow workers to unionize by adding provisions to the current agreement that could delay approval of the deal, which requires ratification in the house and Senate as well as legislatures in Canada and Mexico. That's if the deal is to replace the original nineteen Ninety-four NAFTA agreement between the countries the latest self reported data from Thomas car companies show, the technology is progressing, but so far still needs humans at the ready to take the wheel. The data comes from the California Department of motor vehicles. The state requires companies with testing permits to disclose data, including how often the autonomous technology is deactivated due to failure or because a safety operator had to take control each company defines that measure known as disengagements. Differently. This Valentine's Day fans of the original candy conversation. Hearts known as sweethearts had a tough time finding their favorite holiday candy. That's because neck, oh, the maker of the candy went out of business over the summer. And as Wall Street Journal reporter any gas borrow found out other brands aren't cutting it for fans of the original one of those loyalists was Carol Evans in California who has been eating sweetheart since she was a kid, and she's sixty eight years old now. So she was devastated not to have them around this year. And when I asked her whether she would settle for Brock's. She said save those for the next generation negle- began making the candy hearts with messages, like be mine and true love over a century ago. Spangler candy bought neck oh brands, including sweethearts when the company shuttered, but couldn't roll out sweethearts and time for this year's Ballantine's day. Still to come. We'll get into the details of General Electric's ninety two billion dollar sales backlog. General Electric is facing a ninety two billion dollar sales backlog, the ones powerful conglomerate which has lost more than two hundred billion dollars in market value in recent years has now focusing on its core. Power business. Joining us now with more details is Wall Street Journal reporter Thomas, Greta Thomas, you've been reporting on GE, including a big piece the Wall Street Journal had last year about the decline of what was once a huge company that since spun off several of its units was removed from the Dow Jones industrial average and is now struggling to make its power unit profitable, tell us about this ninety two billion dollar backlog. That GE is now dealing with sure the backlog is the some of the unfilled orders, basically, it's their backlog of business to come. They have one for the entire company, which is closer to four hundred billion in backlog in general is a good thing or bad thing. And depends on what's in it. And for GE, that's. The big question is what's in it? You don't know. What's an because they're commercial agreements between whoever's buying products and services from GE? So there's a little bit of a mystery. But in recent years, the power division has had some difficulties and part of that comes from bad deals chasing market share not being aggressive on price. So you know, when you cut those deals, they go into the backlog, you then have to work your way through them. So although their new CEO Larry cope has taken over the company, and is is trying to sort of reset the power business. It has to take time because you have to work through those prior commitments, and some of them aren't aren't great. So you may have deals that are low margin or negative MARCY, you're gonna lose money on the deal, which isn't that uncommon because part of their businesses services? So they know they're gonna make it up. But you know, he one thing that he's talked about very openly about getting people more focused on. Price and margin. Not worrying so much about closing deals at any cost. And as you say, it's hard to know, what's in the backlog because of private details of commercial agreements, but a big factor. Here is GE's takeover of Alstom's power business. Tell us a little bit about that. Well, they bought this business a few years ago. It's a French company. The business has not been as good shape as I think they expected overall the market has declined since then, but there are a number of deals in the Allston orderbook which were not favorable in at the time of the deal that was a point of contention between the companies g really wanted to see the orderbook and the other parties did not want to open that up because still a competitive industry. We should also mention that GE's power unit is currently under investigation by federal authorities end under close scrutiny from investors as well. This is going to be a challenge for. CEO Larry call. What have you heard from him about the process and the time line going forward? It's going to be a long process from Larry and even into previous SIA Joan Flannery was a multi year process to to turn around power as far as investigations are concerned, the SEC and the DOJ looking at the accounting around some of the issues and power those things can take years. Larry's been pretty open about that. You just don't know think you know, he's made an effort to try to to get things working is into to be moving forward. But with those types of situations, you don't know where it's gonna go. And you know, they've said they communicate they are cooperating with authorities. But it can still take years until they finally come to a conclusion one way or the other investors are very much focused on the power business. The turnaround plans for GE, you know, the three core businesses aviation healthcare and power in for GE to really turn around power has to come. Back. And so there's a lot of scrutiny on that. And the rating agencies are watching that very closely. Fitch Ratings recently shifted to a negative outlook around concern around this issue. You know, fitch- expect G E it's cash flow to be far below its competitors and other industrial companies for a number of years, and that's a big factor because without that cash coming in GE has a large amount of debt, and that is really what Larry pulp is focused on right now is de leveraging and getting that debt down, and it's very much a sort of show me story right now. Like he has the story execute on it. And that's what you're hearing from the rating agencies like we were cautious worried about these things, and they need to see more progress. That's Wall Street Journal reporter Thomas, Greta joining us in our studio with the latest on General Electric Thomas. Thank you so much. Thank you. And that's what's news. I'm Anne Marie for totally in New York for the Wall Street Journal.

Wall Street Journal General Electric reporter Greta Thomas Paul manafort New York Larry Milan CEO Milan Italy Spangler candy Fitch California Department of motor Garay Manafort White House Thomas car companies NAFTA
Barrick Gold, Hedge Fund Reveals And Election Plays

Wall Street Breakfast

08:14 min | 1 year ago

Barrick Gold, Hedge Fund Reveals And Election Plays

"Welcome to seeking Alpha stocks to watch Wall Street breakfasts weekend edition our news teams weekend preview of upcoming IPO's earnings reports conference presentations, investor days FDA decisions. Barron's mentions and other key events that could impact stocks to set you up for the week ahead in the markets subscribe to this podcast on apple podcast Google podcasts spotify stitcher good morning today is Sunday August nine and I'm your host Rena Shirl we begin with a breakdown of the week ahead from seeking Alpha's news team. The week ahead will include economic releases on inflation retail sales for July and the first. University. Of Michigan, consumer sentiment print for August. The conference calendar heats up with virtual version of the GOP Morgan Auto Conference. The headliner event thirteen F filing will also start pouring to give an indication of how the Hedge Fund crowd was positioned for three. The most interest will be on if hedges took profits on high flying names like Wayfair Docu sign and draft king, and finally don't forget about the gold sector with Barrick Gold report earnings and the pro inflation trade heating up. In earnings news do energy barrick gold canopy growth Marriott International Taubman. Centers. Workhorse Group Report. On August tenth Cisco Neo and Julia Report on the Eleventh Brinker International Performance Food Group and lift and Cisco. Report on the twelve applied materials reports on the thirteenth draftkings reports on the fourteenth. One of the bigger auto conferences of the year takes place on August twelfth of J. P. Morgan Auto Conference in a virtual format. This year presenters include auto nation this agent Superior Industries Stone Ridge. If I sa Tenneco Jen therm rumble on Dana and General Motors JP Morgan is also hosting GM financial and Ford credit presentations as well as moderating a panel with representatives from Moody's sap and Fitch Ratings. The tough decision across the US of how send kids back to school is still being worked out as public health officials and local governments. Hash out contingency plans the added uncertainty. This year is likely to disrupt the back to school season for retailers even more than in the past few years when Amazon and online shopping displays old consumer habits. This year warns that apparel firms like American Eagle Kohls and gap could suffer even more at home schooling and play analyst. Gulliver Chen season incremental five to ten percent overall bt sales edwin, amid the pullback in apparel spending and promotional environment. On the positive side Chen singles Ulta beauty as being a good position. Noted Chen. We believe ULTA is well positioned to capture this spent shift given strong skin care and do it yourself trends underway. In particular he points to a are enabled virtual trion embedded in ultras APP that collectively makes for a compelling contactless shopping experience. He also says, target looks attractive given its valuation beauty momentum and resilience broad line traffic and home and private label exposure. Cowan. Expect certain electron categories like laptops and tablets to see an uptick in sales due at home learning, which will offset weakness and clothing for target target should also benefit from traffic. It's multi category assortment and robust curbside capabilities he noted. Walmart will begin running movies next week in partnership with tribeca Film Festival converted parking lots at same store locations. The curated list of three hundred twenty hit movies will include Black Panther Wonder Woman E. T. Cars, and the lego movie. The viewings will be free of charge although a reservation is required. The retail giants foray into movies coincides with exhibitors like. Her tamen cinemark and Marcus Corporation going through a period of disruption including AMC agreeing to a seventeen day digital release window under a landmark deal with universal. Martin transport has three for to split set for August fourteenth and financial has a one for fifteen reverse split scheduled for the same day. This week in barons mentions the stocks teams drawing attention in Barron's weekly addition. The publication takes a look at two election outcomes with voting less than one hundred days away if the Republicans keep the white. House in the DEM's keep the house. The list of stock seen benefitting includes. Goldman Sachs Lenders Lamb and world acceptance ExxonMobil, energy transfer, and Lockheed Martin. Trade war pressures are seeing lingering for apple and the retail sector in general and the status quo scenario. A democratic sweep is seen as positive for tesla first solar an infrastructure plays like Vulcan Materials Granite Construction and Martin Marietta materials. Amazon and facebook are anticipated to have an even greater threat of regulatory action under the blue scenario outside of election talk essay lottery singled out as an overlooked pick amid pandemic. It is noted that lawyers products have shown enduring growth with sales of its makeup and skin care products more than doubling in the decade following the two, thousand, eight, two, thousand, nine, recession estee lauder is also expected to benefit from its international exposure. The US accounted for about twenty nine percent of last year sales with Europe, the Middle East and Africa contributing forty three percent and China seventeen percent. This week in our single stock focus, we cover car carbon with Gary Alexander? The stock closed the week at one, hundred, ninety, two dollars. Alexander begins here. Virtually. Every single Internet commerce has seen record performance in the wake of the corona virus both consumer staples and leisure purchases and everything in between have seen rapid rises. ECOMMERCE has also taken off auto sales and for the used car market as a whole with the closure of car dealerships across the country people have taken to the Internet to make purchases as big as cars against this backdrop. The market was expecting extremely strong earnings for Car Vanna in Q. Two, and instead we got the opposite. In spite of the earnings weakness shares of carbon shot up over twenty percent and year to date. The stock is still sitting on handsome over two times gains. Even, though carbon is chopped up, it's cute to revenue disappointment to supply constraints. We believe the company has missed executed to its credit in an incredibly challenging environment and missed out on an opportunity to gain market share and mine share in a time that has shuttered most of a traditional competition. Consider the fact that carbon is to time stock price performance is based on the company's ability to use the pandemic as a turning catalyst in its path to greater market share and eventual profitability similar to how wayfair has turned the pandemic into an opportunity with the rapid deceleration we've seen van is growth rates were not sure if the company's beefy all-time highs can be justified. Alexander goes on. Wall it's understandable that inventory reliant businesses are facing exceptionally challenging macro circumstances at the moment for a company to blame week pandemic related demand shocks in one quarter then flipped blaming supply and inventory in the next is definitely a red flag from his execution with a full understanding the cars are expensive pieces of inventory to hold car is simply wasn't able to react to changing demand trends quickly enough to keep it sales pipeline healthy the lost sales in one quarter issue the damage to the car van brand of a customer logging onto the site and finding minimal inventory or stock out of the car they want is potentially even more significant and more difficult to quantify. Alexander concludes with this. The fact that car shares have doubled year to date and are sitting at all time highs doesn't jive with the fact that the business is facing a series inventory issue that has sustained into July per se. Oh, commentary with immediate no line of sight to recovery. We think it's senseless to award all time high share prices to accompany that isn't projecting pure strength. Overall seeking authors skew bearish on Car Vanna with the to neutral and four bearish that concludes this week stocks to watch. Thanks so much for listening for. The Best Investment Analysis News on the web. Go to seeking Alpha DOT COM subscribe to this podcast on apple podcast Google podcasts spotify stitcher. Sign up for other podcasts behind the idea alpha trader essay for phase. Let's talk ETF's the cannabis investing podcast and marketplace roundtable and those platforms as well. Have a great week.

apple Gary Alexander Gulliver Chen Barron Amazon US Barrick Gold Google Lockheed Martin ULTA Hedge Fund J. P. Morgan Auto Conference Michigan Morgan Auto Conference FDA Superior Industries Martin Marietta Rena Shirl GOP
Fossil fuel companies appear to be hedging their election bets

Marketplace Morning Report with David Brancaccio

09:03 min | 10 months ago

Fossil fuel companies appear to be hedging their election bets

"This marketplace podcast is supported by we work today takes new ways of working new measures toward health and safety flexible terms for how you work spaces designed with your purpose. It takes a we work office to take your business where you wanted to be we work. That's how tomorrow works visit we work dot com slash tomorrow. Hey, all IMF as host of the marketplace podcast. This is uncomfortable on the show this week having your best friend as your co worker is great right being in business together at the same time that our friendship was failing I think for me was this like kind of convenient cover story I could say we're working well together. Things aren't that bad the host of the PODCAST, call your girlfriend talk about their friendship and what happened when they started the business together. New Episode Drops Thursday wherever you get your podcasts. Some corporate money is shifting in recognition of the conversation to come about domestic oil and gas production if there is a biden presidency. I'm David Brancaccio. Good. Morning by one estimate eleven, billion dollars will be spent on this year's election in who imagined. Let's take an interesting sliver of that the eighty seven million coming into the racists from oil and gas companies most to. Republicans. But with poll showing strength, for Joe Biden and some Democrats vying for Senate fossil fuel companies appear to be hedging some bets. Now, marketplace's Nova SAPPHO JOINS US Democrats are getting more of this oil money noah. They are the numbers still vastly favor Republicans according to the Center for Responsive Politics that's nonpartisan research group eighty, five percent of oil and gas donations have gone to president trump's campaign or to the Republican candidates and conservative causes. But Biden's campaign has also benefited. It's taken in about nine hundred thousand dollars from people impacts associated with the gas industry and two of the biggest oil giants Exxon Mobil and Chevron they've bumped up their donations to Democrats compared to the two thousand sixteen election. Chevron has spent almost five million dollars in this election cycle and twenty eight percent of that went to Democrats Exxon has donated a little over one and a half million dollars forty one percent to Democrats. Now, these are some of the biggest oil companies right? Can we also assume they're also the biggest donors in this industry? Well. The biggest donors favor Republicans, Chevron is one of them but among the biggest of the big, that's energy transfer equity owned by Kelsey Warren he controls the Dakota access pipeline remember that. Subject of a coordinated protests by native. American tribes thousands camped out in North Dakota well. Warns Company is the biggest contributor fourteen, million dollars. He's also a trump supporter. He's reportedly given ten million dollars to just one pro trump super PAC, and then there's coke industries. Of course we all know that name giving ten million dollars and of course, Charles Coke being a well known conservative donor. Marketplace's Novo Sappho. Thank you. Data from the lender. Sallie Mae finds that just seven percent of college students are on campus attending classes in person about half are being taught online only the rest use a hybrid combination and there's a lot of unevenness among campuses. Here's marketplace's Mitchell Hartman with the pandemic raging this summer college administrators didn't even know how many students would pay tuition and show up for classes with her in person or online. Well, the numbers are in compared to expectations really not so bad Doug Shapiro at the national. School Clearinghouse Research Center, says college enrollment down four percent compared to. Last year that's encouraging that most students who were already in college been able to stay enrolled despite the pandemic and all the online and everything else. But first year enrollment is down more than sixteen percent and a community colleges. It's down by QUARTER EMILY WOULD WANNA covers higher Ed Fitch. Ratings? This is concerning in quite frankly surprising given the easier access you have into community college in the lower price point would want he says, the decline likely reflects job and income loss among low and middle income households shows many community college students depend on work to pay tuition. I'm Mitchell Hartman for marketplace. And according to numbers from our fresh marketplace. Edison. Research poll just about half of people with school age children forty nine percent say their kids are being schooled fully online now markets Dow and S&P futures are up to ten percent. Each London is up one point two percent. This marketplace podcast supported by transfer. Wise. The smart new way to send and receive money internationally transfer wise gives you the real exchange rate every time you send money abroad you can even get an account that holds up to fifty four currencies at once and convert between them. Any time join over eight million customers in more than eighty countries who are already saving. Try them out for free at transfer wise dot com slash marketplace, or download the APP. If. You were to lose your job today. How confident would you feel about finding a new one within six months? That's among questions we asked in our latest marketplace Edison Research poll taken amid the deep pandemic recession here about one in five said, they're not confident at all in finding something more than forty percent. Say they're somewhat confident third of very confident. There's an age thing going on here as marketplace's Justin Ho reports. Evan Nitra our thirty two years old and lives in Los Angeles. He works as a lighting designer, which means he does a lot of different things. I want my own personal line of lamps and Chandeliers. I'm refurbishing some lights at a nineteen fifties diner the way. Niger. Our puts it. He has his fingers in a Lotta pies. I'm overseeing some electrical work being put into kids museum in Santa Monica and I'm building custom led mask for A. Fighter. When the marketplace at his research poll asked neither our told us he's very confident in his ability to find work within six months. In fact, only about one in seven respondents between the ages of eighteen and thirty four told us. They're not confident in their ability to find work. Niger. Our says current gigs dry up. He has a lot of skills he could fall back on but finds something that could get me by that wouldn't necessarily be satisfied doing but I would have the skills to make some sort of wage younger workers haven't had as much time to focus on a specialty says Labor economist Peter Arousa at Iowa State, university, as a result, the skills that they have tend to be. More general and more applicable to lots of firms after the great recession in two thousand, eight, Arroz says older workers were unemployed about twice as long as younger workers. So what you've found was that the younger people were much more flexible in terms of switching to a different type of job. Younger workers are also generally more optimistic about the economy economists, Sarah helps at Fargo they tend to have a more upbeat assessment of their future earnings, their ability to save for retirement even what interest rate they might get on their savings account and the recovery so far maybe boosting their optimism many young people work in the leisure and hospitality industry which was hit hard at first but has been bouncing back vigorously. I'm Justin how for marketplace. And what is the largest individual tax evasion case in the history of the United States? US prosecutors say it's one involving a Houston software company executive accused of trying to keep the irs from noticing two billion of dollars. Authorities allege seventy, nine year old Robert TV. Brockman. Had people route his money via Bermuda nievas Switzerland Brockman is the CEO of Reynolds and Reynolds which makes software for car dealerships. He pleaded not guilty via zoom yesterday. His company says it had nothing to do with us. Our executive producer is Nicole childers digital producers was Alex. Schroeder are engineers or Brian Allison JC bold and Ben Tolliday I'm David Brancaccio marketplace morning report. From APM American public media. Justin Ho with marketplace, the economy is changing so fast it's hard to keep up to our latest podcast is to help. It's called the marketplace minute give us just sixty seconds and we'll bring you the latest on what's happening in the economy three times a day market updates business news in hell the numbers affect your personal economy. We'll tell you what you need to know and why it matters. Just ask your smart speaker to play the marketplace minute or find it wherever you get your podcasts.

Joe Biden Justin Ho Chevron David Brancaccio Mitchell Hartman Niger Company US Democrats United States IMF Sallie Mae Center for Responsive Politics North Dakota Exxon Doug Shapiro
File your taxes by hand, we dare you

Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal

27:28 min | 2 years ago

File your taxes by hand, we dare you

"This marketplace podcast is brought to you by the association of national advertisers, the largest marketing association in the US driving growth for you, your brand and the marketing industry, get exclusive complimentary access to the ANA's talent diversity study, examining, gender and ethnic diversity among US-based marketing departments available now at an dot net slash marketplace. Round. These parts we spell global economic forecast with three little letters. I m end ETF from American public media. This is marketplace. In Los Angeles. I'm KAI Ryssdal. It is Tuesday the ninth of April today. Good as always to have you along everybody, we begin on this Tuesday with a restatement of our every now, and then observation that this is a global economy, and we are kind of stuck with it. Come. What may and when what is coming is generally good rising growth in economic optimism. Good fine. When what's coming is less growth in some small degree of economic pessimism. Well, you got to play the Hendra Dell. Right. And the global economic hand we are being dealt today comes to us from the International Monetary Fund. I m f get it which is out with its latest forecast on the global economy growth. Yes. But less of it the IMF third forecast of slower growth in six months. Gita Gopinath is the chief economist for the IMF, Dr Gopinath welcome to the program. Thank you. You called the global economy this morning, some of your commentary. You said we're at a delicate moment how come why said global growth is projected slowdown. Down to three point three percent and twenty nineteen and we expect recovering twenty twenty and you know, that recoveries precarious. So that's the sense in which this is a delicate moment because if any of the downside Ristori worry about materialize, the recovery that we're expecting may not come about. Okay. Why are you expecting recovery? If it's if it's precarious seems like a gutsy call the make well, we certainly seen as a substantial amount of policy accommodation around the world. I mean, all of the major central banks have shifted to a more accommodative stands we've seen China. Putin affair amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus. We certainly seen some improvement in trade tensions between US and China at least compared to twenty eighteen so all of those factors, you know, would help a growth going forward, and we expect to see some recovery's stressed economies like Argentina and Turkey. So that's where our focus is coming from got low rates, the accommodative policy that you mentioned, but we do still have the specter of a no deal, Brexit or whatever's going. To happen over there. We have ongoing U S China trade talks, which again who knows what's gonna happen over there. Get me, then to your to your downside risk that you mentioned. I mean, I'm unavo- main downside risk remains an esscalation intrigue tensions. You know, maybe with other countries in other sectors like autos, we would like to see a resolution of Brexit with an agreement. That's not an audio Brexit. I mean, these would be some of the important policy missteps to be awarded. Let me get a little more specific. Are you talking American trade policy movements here we are talking about? Yes. The US China trade tensions weaken growth weakened investment, reduced business confidence. So the question is what happens going forward from the US side from any retaliation. Which is why we, you know, we we say that this is a delicate moment in his appoint for policy makers to avoid missteps, let me just ask. Since you mentioned central banks and listeners will hair elsewhere in the program about about the impedance of central banks. And since you led with it in your answer. How critical are central banks and the proper functioning there of to the to the future health of a global economy. I mean, central Bank policies of all these taken recently the independence of the central Bank are all hugely important for the health of the global economy. They played an important role in reducing downside risks that were showing up towards the end of twenty eighteen and so it is important that they remain independent their mandate a driven and the the policies are well communicated. So we've been on the job since the first of January, how're you liking it so far it's been it's been a lot of fun. It's been great. Doc to choose the new ish chief economist at the International Monetary Fund out with your global forecast this morning, Dr Goldman now, thanks for your time. I appreciate it. Thank you so much. She mentioned a no deal Brexit bond the way without getting into the current state of play over in the UK because frankly, one loses track US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said this today in congressional testimony, quote, I think at this point secretary said we need to be prepared for a hard Brexit as a very realistic outcome, and of quote, hard Brexit, of course, is a no deal Brexit again. Who knows what the what over there on Wall Street today? Honestly kinda man nobody was really wild about that IMF forecast. We'll have the details when we do the numbers. A follow up now to our story last week. I guess about most profitable company on the planet Saudi Arabia's national oil company Saudi Aramco, it's called we told you about it because they were going to go to the capital markets sell off some bonds and had opened their books at least partway to see whether investors wanted in. And who boy did they interest in Ramco bonds came in such a stampede? Then investors were okay. Taking a really really small return. A yield in bond market, the interest those bonds pay in return for letting the company us investors money, and as marketplace's Scott Tong reports, despite the human rights controversies surrounding the Saudi kingdom the markets, and they don't seem so worried there's a big range of bonds available to investors. The more risk. They take more interest or yield. They get on one end. There are junk bond says Georgetown, finance professor Jim angel companies on the edge. You may not get any. Money back. But in the meantime, if they did pay off you get a huge return Saudi Aramco's at the other extreme a giant profit machine backed by a country, it offered low-yield it's safe as safe as the kingdom of Saudi Arabia's bonds and investors couldn't get enough. Aramco set a goal of borrowing ten billion dollars as it yesterday. The orderbook was sixty billion. I just saw report earlier today that it was at a hundred billion. So in other words, there plenty of investors who are willing to lend Aramco money on the same terms as they went money to the Saudi government. That's a great signal for Saudi Arabia, which owns Aramco it wants to raise money to invest in new sectors. Besides oil and to convince the rest of the world that it's companies are well run says Stephen cope, it's at Princeton energy advisors. You want modern economy, and if you're particularly looking to move past, you know, oil-based economy in Saudi Arabia, you slowly have to be edging towards international standards of governance. This has been the kingdom's plan for a while. But it was thrown into. A series doubt. Last fall by the murder of journalists Jamal Shoji says energy scholar. Valerie Marcel at Chatham house, a British think tank government way to to attract foreign investment, and now they're back in the good graces of the world. They're no longer the prior state. Today's big time bond sale is rekindling expectations that Saudi Aramco might go public and let investors by company stock to I'm Scott Tong for marketplace. It will surely not have escaped your attention that April the fifteenth is this coming Monday, which means unless you live in Massachusetts and Maine right where the third Monday in April is the patriots day holiday taxes are due. And if it has escaped your attention, while the Internal Revenue Service would like word with you one of the promises of the GOP's two thousand seventeen tax cuts under which this is the first filing season. Is that filing? Our taxes is going to be simpler, the math a little easier and the forms. A little shorter thing is most Americans used tax software or an accountant father taxes, and yes sure a lot of that is convenience. But there is a dash of fear in it as well. Marketplace's Marielle Sagarra has that one. Look, I get it. It's hard to make taxes. Approachable? Courtney pocket is trying though by turning her classroom into a tax game show, which celebrity is generally considered to have old the most in back taxes at fourteen million dollars. Is a singer Marc Anthony Huck cat is a teacher at winooski high school in Vermont near Burlington. She's quizzing the students in her personal finance class, which is mandatory for graduation. She recently taught them how to file their taxes using the IRS forms, the ten forty the ten ninety nine not turbo tax h and R Block they grumbled and groaned said things like I hate taxes. I think is just the instant reaction based off of the messaging that we have as the country about taxes being something that is so terrifying, you can fill out and submit those IRS forms on paper or on the IRS website. But most people don't according to the IRS nearly ninety percent of US tax payers pay a professional or use software to file and there are situations where that's a no brainer. If you own a business or have complicated investments, for instance. But Joe Thorndike at the publisher tax analysts says for many tax payers. That's not the case. Earning. Here's that for. Lots of people. Filing taxes is not complicated. I mean, if if all you earn our wages for the most part, then your tax return is really quite simple. You're gonna fill out more forms when you go to the doctor. So why do so few people do their taxes on their own? A big reason fear. You're just not sure whether you're doing it, right? And on the on the far side of doing it wrong is potentially jail, or at least some really bad fines, and that gets drilled into our heads, the IRS is this sort of boogeyman that's gonna come arrest, you, garnish your wages. Take your house, Julius Kurski lives in Chicago. And she uses tax software says the IRS is too scary. I don't want to like big, brother. But kind of like they have like all this power like those people after you or like, I don't know. But I'm afraid to mess up. The other kind of fear of play here that you'll leave money on the table. Maybe you don't know about some. Deduction that could get you a bigger refund but tax off wear or an accountant does. And while there are some free tax prep options. There are limitations Juliana Hanson who lives in Maine realized that recently, she was using a free version of turbo tax when it said, hey, here's a two hundred dollar tax credit. You qualify for one. Catch you need to upgrade to the forty dollar version of turbo tax to get this two hundred dollars. They were like weaving it in front of my face. But like like you have to pay off now, which fell really rude Hanson could have gotten this credit on the IRS forms for free by making a few extra calculations. But she paid because part of this is about convenience often. It's easier to pay someone else to be the expert. Joe Thorndike at tax analysts says he gets that even he uses turbo tax. But he thinks there is a bigger societal cost. When Americans don't know how to fill out a ten forty or what's even on it. They become sort of disconnected from the tax code and the down. Side of that is that the tax system could use a lot of improvements, but adults are outrage in a way that makes improvements less likely Courtney Paquet that teacher in Vermont wants her students to have the ability to file on their own. And if someday they do use software or an accountant, they'll know enough to double check their return for what it's worth, she says her students warm up to the tax forms quickly, by the way, the answer to that question about the celebrity who fourteen million dollars in back taxes, nNcholas cage. I'm maryelle Sagarra for marketplace. Coming up may simply dissuade them from going to their healthcare practitioner and even asking the questions, drug prices and the difference they can make. But I sure what do the numbers? Now does shows off one hundred and ninety points today seven tenths percent. Twenty six thousand one fifty Vanessa off forty four point two half percent Seventy-nine own on the S and P five hundred down seventeen point six tenths percent. Twenty eight and seventy eight American Airlines revised its outlook downward blaming in part, the grounding of its Boeing seven thirty seven max airplanes. That's in America stopped down. One point six percent today. Let us stay with airline stocks. As some of them are reporting quarterly earnings soon. Delta down one point three percent today. Jet blue down one point four percent. United also down about four tenths percent. Hawaiian holdings parent company of. Yes. Wine airlines bucked the trend up nearly six point four percent. Is it raised its outlook for the quarter? Boeing the proximate cause of this moment in aviation distress down. One point five percent today percent and have to say that bond. Prices rose yield on the tenure this. Marketplace podcast is brought to you by golden Sachs for insights from leading thinkers at Goldman Sachs on the state of markets industries and the global economy listen to their podcasts exchanges. Goldman Sachs you'll hear discussions on a variety of topics from a variety of sectors with far reaching implications, including global and regional growth forecasts finding value in today's investing climate the impact of technology on markets and much more. That's exchanges at Goldman Sachs. Available on apple podcasts Spotify, Stitcher, soundcloud and Google play and at GS dot com slash podcast, and by Columbia University school of professional studies. When you add a master's degree to your resume. You can better advance your professional career or you can even start a new one consider the prestigious Columbia University school of professional studies. This Ivy league program offers a wealth of master's degrees in hundreds of classes, you will acquire skills that are in high demand in today's business climate and get mentorship from leaders in their respective fields. Choose from seventeen master's degrees in subject areas that are highly diverse from applied analytics and enterprise risk management to strategic communication and bioethics at Columbia. You'll join a vast multicultural and multinational network you'll make contacts with peers and professional mentors whom you will draw on for years to come. Columbia SPS makes it possible for you to achieve your degree. Even when you're working fulltime programs are flexible, many can be completed online or through a hybrid of virtual and in person study full or part time, and you can take classes at the campuses in New York or San Francisco applications are still open for fall twenty nineteen to find out more. Visit WWW dot S. P S dot Columbia dot EDU slash podcast to note felt two point five zero percent two and a half percent doesn't really do it in bunch because at ten matters. Actually. Sure listening to marketplace. This is marketplace, I'm KAI Ryssdal. Let me do a quick call back to my interview with Gita Gopinath, the IMF chief economist at the top of the program specifically that bit about central banks, the Federal Reserve just for instance, and their role in the global economy critical is the short version of her answer. I asked it because central banks and their independence or under some pressure right now here in the United States as we have reported from President Trump directly and his top economic advisors. But elsewhere as well as some new research from Fitch Ratings out this week makes clear that pressure could come with some economic costs. Marketplace's Tracey Samuelson is on that one. When the economy slows it can be tempting for politicians to look for someone to blame. And the central Bank is an obvious. Somebody berry I can green at the university of California Berkeley says you can see this in countries like India Turkey Argentina what's new is that the United States has showing the crowd. The Federal Reserve is the world's most important central. Bank. So James McCormack with Fitch Ratings says if it seen as coming under this kind of pressure. He expects other central banks will to there's an increasing amount of commentary coming from political leaders directed toward central banks and encouraging them to adopt easier monetary policies, lowering interest rates were even non-traditional ideas like allowing the fed to fund government spending by printing more money McCormack says countries face slowing growth and growing debt. The temptation is will be to look to central banks for for at least part of the solution. And that would be to allow inflation to run a little bit higher. A little extra inflation may not sound. So scary says Ken Kutner, an econ professor at Williams College, but it can easily get out of hand if the central Bank is under pressure in the couple of years prior to elections to get the economy's run faster. And then in the years after the election experiences a hangover, then you can see how this is going to set in motion. A boom bust cycle. Kutner says it's really risky to prioritize short term political goals over long-term economic stability. I'm Tracey Samuelson for marketplace. This autumn today from the marketplace desk of correlation is not causation, except maybe sometimes it is Bank of America said today, it's going to bump it's minimum wage for hourly workers starting may the first BFA is gonna pay two dollars an hour. More seventeen bucks a twenty dollar an hour. Minimum wage in a couple of years, then there have been minimum wage increases elsewhere lately as well Amazon's at fifteen dollars, Costco, the same target just announced it's going to thirteen bucks. A couple more next year federal minimum wage, by the way, seven dollars twenty five cents an hour. Marketplace's Mitchell Hartman looked into what's going on here. And it comes with this three word hint. And therein lies the correlation. Causation thing. Here's the three words tight labor market. Here's Mitchell Bank of America is setting a high bar higher than leading big box retailers way higher than the federal. The minimum wage Daniel Jau at jobsite glass door says Bank tellers are making six point two percent more than a year ago. Ben tellers are not just distributing cash or things ATM could do banks are realizing that they actually do need tellers they need humans to interact with their customers. Ten years into the economic recovery. Says Nick bunker at indeed dot com competition for workers as fierce there's fewer and fewer unemployed workers and workers at the labor force who'd want work. So employers are needing to increasingly bid up wages. Just check out. These annual increases in the glass door survey cashier up five and a half percent bartender like Mike Murray up thirteen and a half percent back in October two thousand seventeen nice started out at twelve an hour. Plus tips by the middle of last year. I was at seventeen an hour. Plus tips Murray's thirty he pours drinks and manages a popular brew pub in the. Seattle area. He graduated college into the great recession. Things have gotten better. There's more demand for skilled people who stay around. So that gives me a lot of leverage small businesses are on the losing end of that equation says an trick at vista ridge, a business advisory firm or hearing a lot of the thing they have challenges with getting people to show up for the first day of employment employers that can't afford seventeen or twenty an hour. They're offering perks tuition reimbursement or training to get workers to stick around. I'm Mitchell Hartman for marketplace. So you like charts, don't you? I know you do we've got one for ya. Hourly average pay at other big companies. Walmart's included online at marketplace, Donald. This was one of those not terribly fun days to be running a company that congress has taken an interest in the Senate finance committee had a bunch of companies that manage prescription drug plans in the spotlight today pharmacy benefit managers. They're called getting some heat over their role in the high cost of prescription drugs that idea drug prices, and how high they are is of a moment in Washington right now, they're bill's being drafted to match drug prices here to drug prices charged overseas. And the White House is expected to finalize a new rule soon. That would oblige television ads for prescription drugs to include list prices for those drugs. The idea being the transparency is ultimately going to lead to lower consumer costs. It's an idea not when out controversy, but as marketplace's Andy ULA reports one big drug company is already on board at least for one of its popular medications. There's a new TV commercial for the blood, thinner, Zarella, tow. It's like others are also adds except for one thing at the end. There's a graphic with pricing information. While you hear this to learn more about cost and how Jansa can help visits a relative dot com. The graphic includes the drugs list price, and what the company says most consumers actually pay out of pocket for Sorrento after insurance rebates and discounts. Scott wide is a company chair for Janssen's North American. Pharmaceutical businesses subsidiary of Johnson and Johnson the company that sells eco he says the company wanted to get in front of the new rules when his debate I started around inclusion of price we made a decision to conduct a wide span research into understanding winning formations could be most meaningful to patients and consumers. What Johnson and Johnson thinks is most meaningful is what's clearly more prominent in Israel to-, add that most users will pay between zero and forty seven dollars a month less noticeable the list price of four hundred and forty eight dollars price is something Jill burns of suburban Minneapolis really pays attention to her nineteen year old son has type one diabetes her family's on a high deductible. Insurance plan. So for the first three months of each year, she has to pay full price for her sons, insulin eighteen hundred dollars a month. She's in favor of any commercial that spells out list price, if it has ten thousand dollars people are gonna freak out about that it may stop companies from just charging whatever they can. I just feel like transparency in openness really never hurts anyone Peter Bach agrees. He's an on college est and director of the center for health policy and outcomes at Sloan Kettering in New York, the only step here is allowing patients to see how outrageously priced some of these drugs are and some activated patients will then be able to go on the internet and say, gee, this price is three times what it is for the same drug in Germany. Why is that knowledge of a drugs list? Price doesn't have any. Magic powers says John Bigelow with the coalition for healthcare communication, a pharmaceutical industry lobbying group. In fact, he says this information could have dangerous consequences. Quences? If a patient gets the message from television advertisement that some therapy is going to cost a huge amount of money. It may simply dissuade them from going to their healthcare practitioner and even asking the questions the Trump administration believes disclosing list price will stimulate competition leading to lower prices. Stacey dues at Zena doubts that that might put some pressure on prices and price increases. But it really fundamentally doesn't seem like it would matter Xena teaches health policy Vanderbilt, she says and with list prices won't matter because drug companies have a lot of pricing leverage. Michelle mellow at Stanford law school says there's another problem with this proposed rule, whereas there's not much controversy. When a company is required to disclose the amount of the interest rate on your loan, or how your attorney fees are going to be calculated. There's a lot of controversy about whether the list price of the drug is meaningful price information, or if it actually. Verges over into the misleading. If the rule is finalized. There's a good chance big pharma will sue to stop it. Or we might just see more drug companies. Do what Johnson and Johnson did and comply voluntarily hoping to turn the rule into a selling point. I mean healer for marketplace. This final note on the way out today news, you can use department which I will preface by saying I went to fill up last night while I wasn't looking gallon a regular somehow, it's three dollars and ninety nine cents. Thank you recent oil rally, but anyway, here's the actual item. According to a survey by the gasoline app. Gas buddy that I saw in USA today today Monday, it turns out is the best that is cheapest day of the week to buy gas. Let's traffic to the pumps. It seems on Mondays Fridays in the afternoons. Specifically our worst stations. Bumping up prices ahead of the weekend, which makes sense an capitalism Conaway. All right. We're done down drills off one hundred and ninety points day seven tenths percent. The NASDAQ down forty four that's about a half percent as and p five hundred down seventeen points about six tenths percent digital and on-demand team includes Janet win Oga Oxman. Barbara platz. Brian Ron Han. Gina Soriano and twenty Wagner ceremony is the executive director of digital star. Neves is our executive director of on demand. I'm KAI Ryssdal. We will see Mark. But. This is APN.

US International Monetary Fund KAI Ryssdal Internal Revenue Service Saudi Aramco accountant chief economist Gita Gopinath tax analysts Saudi Arabia Brexit Joe Thorndike Brexit Johnson Scott Tong Los Angeles Tracey Samuelson Goldman Sachs
Mon. 07/26  What The Heck Is Happening In China?

Techmeme Ride Home

22:46 min | 4 d ago

Mon. 07/26 What The Heck Is Happening In China?

"Welcome to the tech name right home for monday. July twenty six twenty twenty one. I'm brian mccullough. Today is the doj probing tether for bank fraud win. Might face ide- come to the mac. What do leaked photos tell us about the next surface duo and i will spend the entire second half of the show trying my best to explain. These seeming tech apocalypse happening right now in china. Here's what you missed today. In the world of tech crypto having a bit of a rebound morning this morning in spite of at least thus far this news according to sources the us department of justice is probing weather executives at tether committed bank fraud in the early stages of that product. This is a big deal. Not just because tethers circulation are worth around sixty two billion dollars but also because and you read this right for various reasons tether underpins around fifty percent of all existing. Bitcoin trades at the moment quoting bloomberg tethers pivotal role in the crypto ecosystem is now well known because the token is widely used to trade bitcoin but the justice department investigation is focused on conduct. That occurred years ago win tether was in its more nascent stages specifically federal prosecutors are scrutinizing weather tether concealed from banks that transactions were linked to crypto said three people with direct knowledge of the matter who asked not to be named because the probe is confidential. Criminal charges would mark one of the most significant developments in the us government's crackdown on virtual currencies. That's because tether is by far. The most popular stable coin tokens designed to be immune to wild price swings making them ideal for buying and selling more volatile coins federal prosecutors have been circling tethers since at least twenty eighteen in recent months they sent letters to individuals alerting them that their targets of the investigation. One of the people said the notices signal that a decision on whether to bring a case could be made soon. With senior justice department officials ultimately determining whether charges are warranted the probe is reaching a tipping point as stable coins attract intense scrutiny from regulators. The us treasury department and federal reserve are among agencies concerned. That the tokens could threaten financial stability and our obscuring transactions tied to money laundering and other misconduct because they allow criminals to make payments without going through the regulated banking system treasury secretary. Janet yellen said last week that watchdogs must quote act quickly in considering new rules for stable coins. A hallmark of tether is that its creators have said each token is backed by one. Us dollar either through actual money or holdings that include commercial paper corporate bonds and precious metals that has triggered concerns that if lots of traders sold stable coins at once. there could be a run on assets. Backstopping the tokens fitch ratings has warned that such a scenario could to stabilize short term credit markets tether was first issued in two thousand fourteen as a solution to a problem plaguing the crypto market banks. Didn't want to open accounts for virtual currency exchanges because they feared touching funds tied to drug trafficking attacks and terrorism by accepting tether exchanges could give traders away to park their balances without being exposed to bitcoin. Price gyrations and funds could be transferred instantaneously from exchange to exchange and quote. There has been a prominent bear case for a while. Now that argues that if tether was actually not backed by quite as much dollar reserves as tether claims that would suggest that bitcoin and other prominent crypto markets were sitting on a house of sand because people were basically using funny money to trade actual crypto funny money trading funny money. I guess is some people's opinion of this. Though the argument could be made that there are plenty of other stable coins in existence. Now so that if tether word to somehow lose favor among traders other coins could step in to take their place unrelated but maybe not that unrelated. Also this morning. Came news that f. t. x. finance will curb highly leveraged cryptocurrency trading a practice that can vastly multiply losses. Fda for example offers a hundred and one x leverage which they are now taking down to a mere twenty x leverage quitting the new york times global platforms like fda dx finance allow traders to borrow big win betting on price fluctuations traders. Do not buy and sell cryptocurrencies but instead predict where prices in the underlying assets will head these bets known as derivatives allow investors to make a bet on the future price of cryptocurrency rather than buying and selling the actual underlying cryptocurrency. They bet on. Bitcoin price moves without actually purchasing it. This type of transaction is not supposed to be available to non-professional investors in the united states. But in the past some amateur investors have found work arounds to trade on the sites leverage leaves investors much more vulnerable to having their accounts liquidated as a result of an automated margin call of the price of cryptocurrency moves against their prediction and they do not have enough collateral in their account to back up their bets. That is what happened in may. Once prices of cryptocurrency began dropping based on market moving events like china's announcement of a regulatory crackdown or the decision by tesla to halt bitcoin payments. It automatically prompted the exchanges to liquidate the accounts of the most highly leveraged investors before their collateral became insufficient to cover their positions. These liquidations are obviously a huge factor in the price crash clermont alley the research lead at kyko. A cryptocurrency market data provider in paris said recalling the sudden decline in cryptocurrency value in mid may. It's a vicious cycle. She said and quote. You know you would think that face. Id would be the most natural fits for max wouldn't you. When might we see face. Ide- coming to max something that would seem to be inevitable mark. Gherman thinks that it's still actually a couple years away but expect all iphones and ipads to transition fully to face. Id by the time. The max get them to quoting macrumors. Gherman says touch. Id remains an important part of apple's product lineup especially for lower end models. Thanks to it being a cheaper alternative to face. Id while continuing to provide security to users quote. But i expect that to eventually change. It won't happen this year. But i bet face idea on the mac is coming within a couple of years. I expect all iphones and ipads to transition to face. Id within that timeframe to eventually a camera. Embedded in the screen would help differentiate apples pricier devices by eliminating the notch at the top the facial recognition sensor gives apple to central features security and augmented reality touch. Id more convenient or not. Only provides the former and quote gherman had previously reported. That as apple was planning its recently. Launched redesigned twenty four inch. I mac it had initially planned to include face. Id but that implementation has been delayed to in upcoming amac redesign instead. Unlike iphones and ipads mac. Laptop screens are significantly thinner. Making it harder to fit the necessary depth sensors for face. Id gherman notes for the down. The line gherman says apple will eventually embiid face. Id into screens themselves. Abandoning the need. For a notch on the iphone apple analysts meanchey quogue such an iphone debut as early as twenty twenty three and quote alleged photos of a new surface duo to have leaked quoting the verge d. camera system on the surface due to appears to be the main significant hardware change on. This device is rumored to include three lenses a telephoto ultra wide angle and standard lens. The leaked photos. Show a bump at the rear of the device just like many existing flagship android phones and also appears that microsoft has moved its fingerprint reader into the power button on the duo to and centered the usb port on the right hand side the surface due to is expected to have relatively minor design tweaks overall with most of the significant changes appearing in the camera system and internal specs. Rumor suggests the surface due to will include qualcomm snapdragon. Eight eight eight processor. Five g. support and an nfc chip for contactless payments. Microsoft may even slightly increase the size of each display on the surface. Duo two with slightly thinner vessels and options for both black and white color. Variants microsoft appears to be sticking with separate screens on the surface due to instead of opting for a truly foldable screen like samsung's upcoming galaxies z. Fold three. that means all eyes will be on how well microsoft improves. The software side of the surface due to the original device has had a variety of software updates but android eleven still hasn't appeared yet that's left surface do as a buggy device with regular issues with multitasking gestures. A screen turning off during book mode and lockups using the fingerprint reader and quote. Y'all know this is a kiwi co household grandma and grandpa visiting this week and they've already done some key projects with the kids. Kiwi co is defining the future of play by making it engaging enriching and seriously fun they create super cool hands on projects designed to expose kids to concepts in steam which is science technology engineering. Art and math kids can learn something new every month. He co crates cover a wide range of subjects from science to art to geography and kids. Love them because they love getting male just for them. It's a great way to end the school year and kick start summer break knowing. They have a package to look forward to each month. Kiko projects provide hours and hours of screen free entertainment as my parents can attest to. We decided to put the kids on a screens diet. While my folks are visiting and kiko helped us achieve that with ky-ko's hands on art and science projects kids can engineer a hydraulic claw built in animation. Machine explore colorful kid-friendly chemistry. And much much more everything you need. To make steam seriously fund delivered to your doorstep. The crates include everything. You need so you don't have to worry about running out for extra supplies get your first month free on. Select crates at kiwi co dot com slash ride. That's k- i w i z dot com slash ride getting things done as a challenge that everybody struggles with one way to tackle it is to make sure you have the right tools and for your computer that means the right apps. The problem is not all apps. Do what they promise than the drawn out. Search for the right solution makes it harder to get the job done. That's why there's set app set. App is on a mission to help users get more done with setup. There's no more worrying about having to search for apps to solve a problem setup tax over two hundred apps for your mac and iphone into one. There's an app for almost any task. So you can stay in your flow and finish what you started with set up. You can think about your tasks not apps a dedicating curation team not only selects the highest quality apps. New apps are added to set up regularly. Updates are free and all. The apps are full featured pro versions. It's also a great value instead of paying thousands of dollars for separate licenses. There's just one flat monthly fee head over to set up dot com to try setup free for a week if you like setup pages nine dollars ninety nine cents per month as long as it's useful to you and trust us it will be set up dot com for a free week trial finally today. This is probably today's lead story. If i'm being honest. But i wanted to put it in the second half of the show so i can fit the whole thing in well. All the shoes have been dropping over in china tech land over the weekend the country this morning issued new regulations for food delivery platforms mandating a minimum wage respect for worker rights and more leading for example to matron shares among others dropping by more than fourteen percent in early morning trading. But that news actually came after bigger news over the weekend when in a blow to the ed tech sector. China ordered tutoring companies teaching the school curriculum to go nonprofit banned them from ipo's and also from raising any foreign capital quoting bloomberg. Beijing on saturday published a plethora of regulations that together threatened up and the sector and jeopardize billions of dollars in foreign investment. That teach school. Subjects can no longer accept overseas investment which could include capital from offshore registered entities of chinese firms. According to a notice released by the state council. Those now in violation of that rule must take steps to rectify. The situation that country's most powerful administrative authorities said without elaborating in addition listed firms will no longer be allowed to raise capital via stock markets to invest in businesses that teach classroom subjects. Outright acquisitions are forbidden. And all vacation and weekend tutoring related to the school. Syllabus is now off limits the regulations threatened to obliterate the outsized growth that made stock market. Darlings of t. a. l. education group new oriental education and technology group and gout. Too tech do inc. They could also put the market largely out of reach of global investors education. Technology had emerged as one of the hottest investment plays in china in recent years attracting billions from the likes of tiger global temasek holdings and softbank group and quote. Now you might be thinking tutoring companies. That's not a big deal right. Well if you've been listening to especially the bonus episodes over the last year it is actually a huge deal edgy. Tech is a huge market in china. One that western investors have been eager to get a part of and or emulate by which i mean some of the philosophical energy behind the whole creator. Economy thing comes from folks wanting to replicate what has been going on in education and tutoring tech and just learning tech over in china. In general this ed tech overhaul could wipe out billions. Invested by sequoia tiger tencent and vision fund if indeed in eliminates foreign investors from the sector quoting the financial times. The clampdown is a sign of china's increasing willingness to restrict foreign investment in its companies shares of new oriental education. Efan sixty percent in new york since friday when a leaked memo suggested beijing was planning to clamp down on the sector and dropped thirty seven percent on monday in hong kong. The new york-listed educations market value has collapsed from fifty nine billion in february two less than fourbillion gal tech ed jew formerly named gs x. has shrunk from eight thirty eight billion dollar market cap in january two nine hundred million dollars analysts at goldman sachs forecast that the size of china's tutoring market would collapse seventy six percent to twenty four billion dollars and quote again. Big names worrying about their investments. Right now. yikes i know. I'm looking at this through the lens of western investor. Because that's the angle of this. That i understand. But for example softbank's vision fund has lost four billion dollars on its dd investment alone as it's twenty point. One percent stake bought for eleven point. Eight billion dollars in twenty nine thousand nine is now worth a mere seven point eight billion dollars but is there anyone that can explain why the chinese government is doing this. Is there anyone that can explain what's happening on that side of the story. Well our friend. Noah smith has some thoughts quoting his recent newsletter. For whatever reason. China is suddenly not a fan of the industry that we call tech. This is strange because for years it was conventional wisdom in the western media that having a tech sector was crucial to innovation and growth. In fact for many years. American pundits argued that china's economy would be held back by the government's insistence on control of information because it would make it impossible for china to build a world-class tech sector. Then china did build a world-class tech sector anyway and now it's willfully smashing the world class tech sector it built so much for us style innovation but notice that china isn't cracking down on all of its technology. Companies while way for example still seems to enjoy the government's full backing the government is going hell bent for leather to try to create a world. Class domestic semiconductor industry during huge amounts of money and even the most speculative startups and it still spending heavily on ai. It's not technology that china is smashing. It's the consumer facing internet software. Companies that americans tend to label as tech. Why do americans equate tech with companies. Like google amazon and facebook. Anyway when reason is that the consumer internet industry is something. America is really good at unlike electronics hardware industries. Consumer soffer is something that hard-driving asian competitors haven't yet been able to beat us at another reason. Is that software. Companies make a lot of profit. Facebook made over eighteen billion dollars in twenty twenty three times micron or honeywell and six times cisco with their low overhead network effects troves of intellectual property strong brand value and differentiated products. Successful software companies naturally tend to generate high margins. That's true for smaller software companies as well as big ones since in america. We often tend to equate profit with value. This means we think of the consumer facing software industry as being our industrial champion generating huge amount of economic value for our nation. China may simply see things differently. It's possible that the chinese government has decided that the prophets of companies like alibaba. And tencent come more from rents than from actual value added that there's simply squatting on unproductive digital land by explaining first-mover advantage to capture strong network effects or that the system is biased to favor these companies or something like that. There are certainly those in america who believed that facebook. google produce little value relative to the prophet. They rake in. Maybe china's leaders for reasons that will remain forever opaque to us have simply reached the same conclusion and quote. But noah thinks there's something even deeper going on here and if you'll recall some of china's recent crackdowns on things like hours spent playing video games might lend credence to what you're about to hear. He's quoting from the dragon. Nomex newsletter from dan wang here in a second quote. It's become apparent in the last few months that the chinese leadership has moved toward the view. That hard tech is more valuable than products that take us. More deeply into the digital world. G declared this year that while digitization is important quote we must recognize the fundamental importance of the real economy and never de industrialized and quote. This expression preceded the passage of securities antitrust thus also pummeling finance which along with tech makeup the most glamorous sectors today and quote in other words the crackdown on china's internet industry seems to be part of the country's emerging national industrial policy instead of simply letting local governments through our resources at whatever they think will produce rapid growth. The strategy in the nineties and early 'oughts china's top leaders are now trying to direct the country's industrial mix towards what they think will serve the nation as a whole. And what do they think will serve the nation as a whole. My guess is power geopolitical and military power for the people's republic of china relative to its rival nations. If you're gonna fight a cold war or a hot war against the us or japan or india or whoever you need a bunch of military hardware that means you need materials. Engine's fuel engineering and design. And so on you also need chips to run that hardware because military tech is increasingly software driven. And of course you need firmware as well. You'll also need surveillance capability for keeping an eye on your opponents. For any attempts you make to stabilize them and for maintaining social control in case they. Try to destabilize you. It's easy for americans to forget this now but there was a time when ability to win wars was the driving goal of technological innovation the nbrc and the were the driving force behind government sponsorship of research and technology in world war two and the nsf and darpa grad of this tradition defense spending has traditionally been a huge component of government research spending in the us and many of america's most successful private sector tech industries are in some ways spin off of those defense related efforts after the cold war. Our priorities shifted from survival to enjoyment technologies like facebook and amazon which are fundamentally about leisure and consumption went from being fun and profitable spinoffs of defense efforts to the center of what americans think of as tech but china never really shifted out of survival mode. Yes china's leaders embraced economic growth but that growth has always been toward the talos of comprehensive national power. China's young people may be increasingly ready to cash out and have some fun but the leadership is just not there yet. They've got bigger fish to fry. They have to avenge the century of humiliation and claim china's rightful place. In the sun and blah blah blah. And so when china's leaders look at what kind of technologies they want the country's engineers and entrepreneurs to be spending their efforts on they probably don't want them spending that effort on stuff. That's just for fun and convenience. They probably took a look at their consumer internet sector and decided that the link between that sector and geopolitical power had simply become too tenuous to keep throwing capital and high-skilled labor at it and so in classic fashion it was time to smash and quote okay so trying to watch the olympics here in the us on the peacock app. It's atrocious. Like i have no idea who did the you i on this. But let's just say they're not anywhere close to being good at their jobs. Let's say you want to watch something live. Anything live anything ongoing right now. I dare you to find that option easily and since we're in the wrong time zone for most live things here in the us. Let's say you wanted to watch a replay of an event. That just happened again. I dare you to find it. In the menu it's all crafted up with highlights of various and those field. Good background stories that the olympics love. But what if you just want to watch the high diving. Not the easiest thing to do either. Searching by sport is somewhat better but not by much for the crafty reasons. I just said i guess the nbc sports app has always been this bad. It's just that when i had to use it. In the past it was merely defined one specific soccer game at a time so i tended not to notice how hard it was to find. Other things get is as i say atrocious. You know if comcast wanted to use the olympics as a way to introduce peacock too potential long-term subscribers. Let me just assure you that this is not doing them. Any favors talk to you tomorrow.

gherman china doj Gherman apple brian mccullough us treasury department Janet yellen microsoft Fda Kiwi co us chinese government softbank
In a post-Schlumberger world, how will the new frac services landscape change the way shale explorers operate?

World Oil's Daily Brief

22:06 min | 11 months ago

In a post-Schlumberger world, how will the new frac services landscape change the way shale explorers operate?

"Welcome to the daily brief, the world oil podcast network, daily review of Market News, emerging trends, new technologies, and the people who are advancing the oil and gas industry. Here's Cameron Wallace with your top news stories of the day. Hello and welcome to the World Oil Daily Brief podcast I'm Cameron Wallace, and today is Sunday September sixth as we started off this this short week here in the US there's some exciting news this week about slumber, Jay and Liberty Oilfield Services, and recent deal they completed regarding FRAC capability in North America. So long take a look at what that means for the two parties involved and for the industry a large the deal of this magnitude is going to have quite a few implications. And then on top of that up in Canada there has been some some intrigue regarding the Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his opinion on what needs to be done or does not need to be done in order to support the offshore oil and gas industry up there in Canada. and. Then finally, down in Mexico Hammocks is going to be going through some budgetary changes for twenty twenty one as they try to not only meet the new normal of the oil and gas sector but also contend with bribery charges and other thrilling bits of activity regarding the operation of the Mexican government. So there's quite a bit happening in spite of the short week help us get through all. This is Kurt Abraham Editor in chief of world oil magazine. So Kerr thanks for joining us. Well thank you Cameron and certainly an interesting week last week in the intrigue will no doubt continued into the next couple of weeks yellow this thing was slumber J. it's quite interesting to look at the headline that wrote here where they say slumbers as North American FRAC exit. Signal the end of the US shale boom. Now to the UNINITIATED, that headline makes it sound as if that's the end of US shale period. We certainly wouldn't say that by any means, is there a reduction and perhaps a permanent reduction for the next couple of years probably more than likely, but we're not going to lose the shale market completely. However, there is going to be very serious realignment particularly now that this deal is taken place and I believe that this is a signal from slumber J. that they intend. As they have said, they're going to reshuffle their business and they intend to focus more on other regions besides North America, they'll still have a significant presence here, but they are shuffling the deck. Now from the standpoint of Liberty Oilfield Services, they can come in and say, Hey, look at us you know up until recently we're just a very interesting niche player here. Now, they are literally going to. Become the second largest fracking provider in North America. A second only to Halliburton and I'm sure they got the attention of the folks over at Haliburton Yeah I'm sure they did. They've got them square in their crosshairs. I think the CEO of liberty made didn't interview just after the deal was complete and he said something along the lines of their goal is growth and as result of that goal be natural that they are going to be eventually gunning for the number one player and that's Halberg. And it's interesting to look at what liberty has received in this deal you know. Slumber J. Just said you know this is a great way for us to you know basically offload our wants to business, and so the first thing you might think about is alright. So. Liberty is gonNA spend time all of the slumber J. Diesel Frac, pump trucks, and everything from blue to red, and then just get back to work. But the CEO of liberty had something much more specific in mind he had his eye on slumber Jay's electric blending technologies which are used to combine Frac province and water and other chemistry before pump down hole. The reason why he was keen on that electric blending technology is because he is also keen. On shifting from a diesel based frank fleet to a more tailored to specific clients needs electric based FRAC fleet. So he's not just taken the stuff, but at work he's got a very different plan to take his what he wants to do a little different direction. Then we're Halliburton is. So suddenly there is a compelling reason to choose one or the other is not just it's not just going to be a pure pricing play as these to compete. Well in in just add a little more detail to the situation here. This is not something that liberty came up with overnight. You know just because they were able to do this deal with summer J. as the CEO Chris Right as stated, his company has actually been mounting two year effort already to develop the generation in frank pumping works off of of As you said than diesel so they've been working at this for a while and now they can really go at full throat. into the future. he also made the comedy set our goal with this acquisition is to keep getting better but to the extent we succeeded that it probably leads us to being the leader sometime down the road. Now I'm sure they're not only got the attention of our friends at Halliburton I'm sure that Halliburton would have something to say about that although they haven't said anything publicly, but I'm sure they've got their own feelings. So is going to be interesting to watch this competition get underway now and see what happens over the next. Couple of years It may well take a couple of years for this develop further considering that the industry right now is that a very low activity level. So you're not going to see any big effects right away. Yeah. That's right and it will also be interesting to see how the client base for these two companies react to this new New Paradigm. In in fact, services because it kind of shifts with the winds whether operators prefer to have a one stop shop operation or if they prefer to choose from a Range of best in class providers, and so now you know that's going to be another big differentiator for these two. Halliburton is the one-stop shop and Liberty Oh. You know is the best in class provider for only one part of the equation. So I guess that's GonNa make the calculus a little bit more at once a little more complex than little more clear more plane for the operators who trying to choose between the two well, technically speaking looking at it from the angle of a shale play operator. Slumber. J. Really cannot say that they are a one hundred percent one stop shop for that classification of operator at this point. So you before they sold the. Business they weren't really a one stop provider anyway. Well, they were one stop provider with now that they have given up that fracking business. That's a piece out of the one hundred percent that they cannot offer anymore. Therefore, they're not one hundred percent one stop, right? Right Yeah Halliburton is. But. If you want to plan the whole thing out and in one fell swoop than your choices, Halliburton who can take you from. Agency or going with liberty which would mean you'd have to do a little more planning and programming to get those different providers slotted in but you know again those the taste and the attitude towards those sorts of setups, change and change frequently. In. The course of my career in the marketing side of often had to. One point explain why? One Stop Shop is better and then a year later explained why in classes better so it's nothing is is. Set in stone there. But you know speaking of. Demand the latest count came out on Friday and it's not not great not terrible if you've seen Chernobyl. What what are you infer from that Kurt I'll tell you it's interesting cameron in the sense that we had absolutely no change in the land count in the US in the last week. So things are status quo. It'll really in my estimation, the process of finishing the bottom. And actually rising. A couple of recounts ago we did have a ten rig jumping us out than the week before it was level zero in. Now there's a gain of two hour ever not in Milan counts in the offshore in the Gulf of Mexico. So we've now gone for number. Thirteen rigged steady to fifteen in the Gulf. That's good. Because it's now more than half of what the rate was last year at twenty eight rigs, an improvement for sure and we've been. Saying that we expected this to happen. Now, we're not going to have this kind of increase. Every week is going to be very gradual increase, but there's no denying the fact that when you compare the offshore projects to the onshore shale in particular, the opportunity for more steady longer term returns on investment Roi is going to be in those deepwater Gulf of Mexico property. Now, also in the recap, something that has a. Little bit disturbed as a fact that Canada for the second, we can row had a little bit of a decrease another to rig dropped down to fifty two versus one, hundred, forty, seven last year. So there roughly a third of where they were last year don't really know why this happened. It was out in the on the rather offshore off of Canada, but it was in the land counselor in Western can. To we'll have to find out what's going on there. Now, in terms of components of these recounts not a lot of change geographically in the US The changes are so minor than not worth talking about There was one increase, one rig increase in the oil count and one in the miscellaneous oddly enough but other than that nothing to really talk about. So we'll have to see what happens in the next couple of weeks, and then we can see if another trend is building or not. and. Zach. You'll have to. Pick it up from where I said. So we'll have to wait another couple of weeks to see a F- another trend builds or not. Yes. Right and speaking of Trends Kurd Abraham and his team are working on finalizing their mid-year forecast, which is a look at the global drilling industry what's happening and some insights into what can be expected in the future that's something that. World oil producers twice a year and as always a hallmark of the world oil cracked. So if you want to be a part of that, I'm sure you do you want to be sure and check out world oil dot com slash subscribe to make sure that you're in the running to see that report comes out later this month but Kurt of Canada I I guess. Mr Justin Trudeau Prime Minister of Canada made a radio appearance of all things in. The Newfoundland Labrador region and was asked some pretty pointed questions about his thoughts on the oil and gas sector in that region and what he offered was termed as quote disappointing which I guess if you translate that from Canadian to American if the Canadian says, it's disappointing I guess down here we would call you'll be apoplectic but what what is going on up there with Mr Trudeau and Newfoundlander oil industry. Well, you know this is a situation that Let's see now has been going on for a better part of five months now, really since about the end of March beginning of April and as many of our listeners will remember of the folks there in Saint John's Newfoundland in particular. Were, very concerned about the viability of the all shredded industry going forward under current market conditions which are absolutely awful and the fact that you contrast that with the break prospectivity of that area I mean that is where some really significant oil finds could occur if you had the right volume of activity and that's what the folks are concerned about the have all that prospectivity and yet they can't do anything about it because they're not getting any breaks from the Canadian government as opposed to what for instance, the Norwegian government did for their industry where they gave them some very significant tax breaks and that's really what the folks are asking for. But they cannot get a straight answer out a trudeau and it's really remarkable that the man just cannot give them a straight answer So he has this little interview with I believe a radio host up there and the host asked pointed questions about supporting the East, Canadian offshore industry and Ati slater responses of the prime minister. Did Not provide any commitment or clarity. despite all these funds decreases up there and all the advocacy by the Newfoundland and Labrador Oil and Gas Industries Association better known as NOAA N-O-A-A and. The provincial government of Newfoundland and Labrador, as well as all the industry companies. So the cheer of Noaa Karen. Windsor she said prior to the Prime Minister's call I spoke with the spoke with the host about the importance of our industry and the need for an answer after months of discussion, thousands of lost jobs in the industry prices. So this host asked the pointed questions of the Prime Minister but still could not get a straight response about how he's going to stop the bleeding of the industry. And she said, this is extremely disappointing and we expect more from our prime minister now, the CEO of Noaa Charlene Johnson also said despite being presented with facts about the important contribution, our industry makes to Newfoundland and Labrador and Canada and his government's previous investment in a pipeline. Prime Minister did not directly answer any questions but instead may vague references to helping the province and and here's the key line that he said to those folks rather to the radio host that was related. These folks that I think has the. An uproar and that is he made a comment. The way the world is going now I know, but you folks out there. But when I hear a comment like that, it sounds like some kind of green new deal comment and you and I know that the folks off-the-record up there are wondering whether true his turn into a full Lhasa Ming a Greenie up there and if so they're very concerned about what's going to happen to the hydrocarbon industry in Canada's a whole and especially their province and in. The fight they can't get a straight answer out of them just infuriates them even more. So you know say what you will about the US President Donald Trump you may not like what the man has to say but at least usually after he says something, you know where you stand one way or the other, and that's all that the folks in Saint, John's are asking for is a statement of declarative statement I either going to do this or I'm not going to do it, but he refuses to do that. Well in that statement about we'll have to see which way the winds blow or whatever it actually specifically was. Is One of those terrible cop-out statements which he's basically throwing up his hands and saying, you know I'm just going to sit back and let this do whatever it's going to do and. You say things like that. When you know the outcomes not going to be positive but then you can say, well, Hey, you know it was all these outs outside forces beyond our control Cetera Cetera. What allows response however now ever you know there's always a. Corollary, and sometimes maybe you want things to be a little more hands off and I suppose that our neighbors to the southbound in Mexico. May agree with that statement, I guess PEX IS GONNA be revising its budgetary plans for twenty twenty one and I think that some of the Shenanigans of the current and previous administration. May Have some small role in that, but it's going to be. Change you can believe in down in Mexico next year. Well, that's for sure and it it looks like now that Preliminary. Output goal of two point zero to seven million barrels. A day is a bit of a stretch it. It says here. Mecca pex. The state oil company Mexico produced on average one point six, nine, two, million barrels a day between January and July that's below the target of one point three, million a day expected by the Finance Ministry. So together with lower selling prices and we know how those have been. The production shortfall. Slashed the Mexican government's oil revenue the just fifty six percent of its goal. So now, they're finalizing a budget proposal for next year at supposed to be handed off to Congress this week and they're going to try to. Square. This altogether and try to figure out what the new level should be. It's obvious. They're not going to get back up over two million barrels a day anytime soon, and you know this is yet another chapter in about fifteen years of oil output declines. And you know they've racked up debt. If you can believe this a one, hundred, seven, billion dollars you know that's that's more than the debt of most state governments in the US. So you know for won't large oil company had kind of debt is just unbelievable and that's why. In April for instance, Moody's Investors Service. In the Fitch Ratings downgraded PECs company bonds into what we call junk territory. So they obviously don't think much of anything that the company is doing right now it's GonNa be a long tough road down in Mexico, and I know that we have discussed in previous episodes of this show about how they're having to re let contracts and reopen bidding rounds and things due to issues with the validity of companies participating and the validity of. Zoar made. It's one of those things where it's gonNA unfortunately get worse before it gets better. I would I would make one further editorial comment if I might and that is the Mexican government has nobody to blame but themselves for this because they took a heavy handed approach to the opening of the EMP sector to foreign participation and they shut that down except for the existing contracts if they had left that alone and allowed companies to come in there and develop things properly particularly in the offshore sector I think you. Would see a different picture right now. But they you know they decided they didn't like that the new regime came in at the end of two thousand eighteen and we've now had over a year and a half of their way of operating and it's not looking too good. So really they have nobody to blame but themselves, plus of course, we have a bad market right now but even so they could have been doing better. Yeah and you know people saw that coming like a freight train down there when they opened up to foreign companies participation, you didn't see any of the big boys jumping in. It was a bunch of you know it's funny little companies with suspicious backgrounds and alliances, and that was what led to them having to relate a lot of this work and frankly what probably led to the situation there now so Despite their best effort to try and open things up all it did was. Pushed them a little further down this path. So. I guess we'll just see what happens on their Mexico but as you said, it's a bad mark it anyway. So for from the consumer standpoint, there's plenty of oil to be had with Pinnock Scherzer Act together not. That is true. So I guess with that will wish everyone here in the United States a happy Labor Day enjoy your day off everybody else get back to work and we'll. Talk to you again in a week. Thanks for listening to the daily brief on the world oil podcast network. If you have any questions or comments on the program, please email editorial at world oil dot com, and check the show notes for more information about today's episode don't forget to subscribe either on Apple podcasts or wherever you get your podcast. Also be sure to visit world oil dot Com for more information about today stories and sign up for our free daily newsletter.

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The one-child policy is history, but rules in China still restrict families

Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal

28:33 min | 10 months ago

The one-child policy is history, but rules in China still restrict families

"This marketplace podcast is supported by we work today takes new ways of working new measures toward health and safety flexible terms for how you work spaces designed with your purpose. It takes a we work office to take your business where you wanted to be we work. That's how tomorrow works visit we work dot com slash tomorrow. And by alarm dot com keeping millions of homes and businesses safer and smarter. Every day. ALARM DOT COM is redefining home and business security with smart features like voice control and customize smart alerts alarm dot com unites your security locks, doorbell camera lights, video cameras, and Thermostat into one smart system with one single APP to control it all learn how to protect your most important investments at alarm dot. com. A reminder on the program today that the virus is global and so two are it's economic effects. From American public media. This is marketplace. In Los Angeles on. Tuesday today thirteen. October good as always to have you along everybody a little bit of good news a little bit bad news from the International Monetary Fund Day the IMF published its World Economic Outlook this morning more than four percent shrinkage in the global economy this year. That's the bad news. The good news is that that's actually a little bit better than its June forecast and next year is not looking so bad provided. And here's the news. The IMF says all countries not just the United States to stop worrying about their debt loads and spend what is needed to keep people out of poverty. Marketplace's Nancy Marshall Genzer gets has gone. The IMF says close to ninety million people could fall into extreme poverty that is living on less than dollar ninety per day as covert nineteen widens the global wealth. Gap Eric Lecomte Heads Jubilee USA, network coalition of aid organizations. He says people on the lowest rungs of the economic ladder migrant workers low-skilled factory workers are most at risk. We are looking at perhaps half the world's population living in extreme poverty. This solution says the IMF countries should borrow and spend big to strengthen the social safety. Net that means healthcare coverage unemployment benefits job retraining Oxford Economics economist Ben May says that government spending fiscal policy can be a lifeline. So I think there is an understanding the moment, the fiscal policies particularly powerful and the actually it does play a role in lifting these economies out of recession plus borrowing is cheap right now interest rates are super low but developing countries that borrow should remember they'll have to pay it back. She Hokuto Goto with the Wilson Center and it will be incredibly difficult for industrialized countries to be to wave off. Those debts in just to say that you don't need to pay us back but countries that borrow from the IMF are getting a bit of a reprieve. The IMF has decided to give them more time to repay their debts. I'm not Marshall Genzer for marketplace. You know how we talk about inflation all the time. Maybe not all the time but a lot. Here's one reason why the Social Security Administration announced this morning that people who get social security benefits are going to get a cost of living increase next year. Of One point three percent twenty bucks a month on average. It's the lowest annual increase in two thousand seventeen and comes as there is some disagreement about what the number off actually be and what exactly the cost of living is for people living through a pandemic marketplace's Sabrina has that one. How much has the cost of living changed? Well, Kinda depends on who you are right that number the one point, three percent cost of living. Increase that is based on a particular group of Americans, all urban wage earners and clerical workers. Bruce trouble is a consulting actuary. The government looks at what inflation is like for this group looks at the Consumer Price Index for urban wage earners and clerical workers. Thing is that is not seniors. It's just the only survey. Congress had when the law was written in Nineteen, seventy-two Christina Martin is with Aarp, the formula really doesn't take into account. The actual budget and expenditures of most retirees. So for example, seniors spend more on healthcare and healthcare costs have surged point nine percent this year, the formula doesn't take into account Medicare premiums either and Ben Democ has added costs for seniors in particular Gary burtless with the Brookings Institution aged households may need to restrict themselves to consuming groceries that can be delivered to them, and that carries a higher price head Mary Johnson, an analyst with the senior citizens. League says. Decades of low cost of living increases that don't reflect seniors budgets have added up. We estimate that social security benefits have lost thirty percent of the buying power since two thousand senior citizens, League is lobbying Congress for a higher cost of living adjustment for twenty twenty, one, three percent instead of one point three in New York I'm refinisher for marketplace on Wall Street today there was shall we say a lack of enthusiasm? We'll have the details when we do the numbers. What do you do when a big chunk of your business depends on people really large numbers of people getting together in sometimes cramped quarters think cruise ships and movie theaters and Theme Parks and Sports. Stadiums. That would make you Disney. Or Disney which has been knocked sideways by the pandemic and so has announced a big restructure. It's going to focus on its content business on streaming Disney plus Hulu and ESPN plus Disney is of course just the latest to make on-demand content priority which means more Money will be spent with at home viewers in mine as marketplace's Kristen Schwab reports that'll affect the product and what goes on behind the scenes to make it. Once upon a time movies where movies and TV was TV. But the line between them starting to blur says Derek Johnson a professor of media studies at the University of Wisconsin Film and TV. Maybe we need to ask are they all that different than we believe them to be? He says, the pandemic is giving streaming platforms across to catch viewers full attention. Every evening that has a lot of potential if the platforms can keep viewers coming back Sarrasin well teaches film and Media at the University of UTAH. So here, I think the issue of curation is really important. Disney plus a niche family. Friendly. Content but so does NBC with its Hitchcock Movies and Netflix's with its Korean. Dramas with so many streaming platforms out there Charlotte Howell a professor of TV and media at Boston University expects companies to lean into their niches, and so we're going to see more and more walled gardens of content. Instead, you have to sign up for each individual studios platform platforms notice she says platforms plural because Disney plus has. And ESPN plus has sports and Hulu covers everything else and they're all owned by Disney why not bundle them together and pitch it to the customer as a deal, and so probably what we'll see is cable to point out how will says we might even see different media companies, shake hands and bundle streaming services across competitors cable two point Oh, indeed I'm Kristen Schwab for marketplace. You know what? We haven't had an a good long while in this economy, a knockdown drag out antitrust fight, a dominant company taken to task by the government for being real real big and real real powerful and using that size and power to unfairly control the market. So. Google. There have been reports late last week early, this the Justice Department and some state prosecutors are looking into the search company along antitrust lines and that among the possible remedies might be a forced sale of Google's chrome. Browser. Marketplace's Marielle SAGIR has been talking to some people to see what that might mean google release chrome in two thousand eight back when most people used Microsoft Internet explorer as their browser mark. Burgin covers technology for Bloomberg, Google's real deep concern. There was that Microsoft could cut them all. It could create its own search engine, which soon did being and make that the. That would just plummet Google traffic is a lot of people just they just use the sort of default search that built into a web browser. The browser is sort of the Lynch pin the key to Web Power Tim, Wu teaches antitrust law, Columbia. The browsers power is one argument for forcing google to sell chrome to another company because that would weaken Google's defenses against competitors Google would no longer be able to control. For example, the default search engine on chrome. So if someone came along maybe Microsoft maybe duck duck go and said, hey, listen We want to. You, know pay you more to be the search engine. Here we go. Google does dominate the search engine market I mean people use the company's name is a verb. Says that could change. Well, you know IBM used to be synonymous with the word computer. History of long. and. It was actually through antitrust action that there were challenges to IBM that emerged loose has another argument for making Google Chrome without a browser. It'd be much harder for the company to collect as much data about what you do online I'm Maryelle Sagarra for marketplace three words, people, marketplace morning report, David Brancaccio, and the gang check it out. According to the US elections project, it's run by professor from the University of Florida. Almost twelve million people have already voted in this election and most of the rest of the voting age population has already made up its mind at least for the top of the ticket but the address still running get out the vote is still happening and voting rules and processes are still being challenged and. As marketplace's Kimberly Adams reports those legal challenges will almost certainly last pass election day the covid nineteen pandemic prompted a lot of changes to the ways we vote. That has the group Judicial Watch among others busy in courtrooms all over the country we've got a few lawsuits try to clean up the roles follow Meka space where we can we're trying to monitor some of this litigation to see. Where we can step and Tom Fenton is president of the conservative group. He says, it's work on voter rolls and mail in ballots will keep right going after election day much of that work. Frankly though has been done by the folks with the most interest politically obviously the parties and the parties are flush with cash this campaign season Democrats and Republicans are dedicating tens. Of millions of dollars for legal challenges so far and setting aside cash for potential fights after election day according to numbers from the Center for responsive. Politics parties and campaigns have received up to sixty four million dollars in contributions just for court fights Rosalyn Cooperman is a professor of political science at the University of Mary Washington I would think that the pandemic has incentivized. Giving for folks who are paying attention to congressional elections, particularly, the Senate of being much more competitive and competitive races are more likely to attract post election legal challenges. Lynn Rambo is a professor of law. America. At Texas am and has written extensively on the legal challenges following the two thousand presidential election. The kinds of contests that go to litigation are ones where. It is extremely close and or ones where there is definitive evidence that something has gone wrong in the counting or the balloting and with so many races likely to be tight up and down the ballot lawyers across the political spectrum are getting ready. Whole selection challenges are extensive Carl Sandstrom is a lawyer at the firm Perkins Kui, which is working with several democratic campaigns. Everybody's interest. Get, issues resolved. Before. Count complete before Election Day, the longer they drag on. So Sandstrom the more damage done to public confidence in. American democracy. In Washington I'm Kimberly Adams for marketplace. Coming up, you really have to kind of citizens with kids or without but first, let's do the numbers. Down does drills of one hundred, Fifty, seven points today about a half percent twenty, eight, thousand, six, seventy, nine, the Nasdaq down twelve points two tenths percent eleven. Thousand Eight, sixty, three, the S&P. Five Hundred gave up twenty two point six tenths percent thirty, five eleven. They're weird kristen tell us about the disappearing difference between TV and movies. But for now, the box office is still quite distinct from the set top box. Thank you very much. So number one at cinemas this past weekend, this is according to box office Mojo. Comedy called the war with Grandpa Stars, Robert Deniro and Thurman. 'cause I missed it took in three point six, million dollars three point six million dollars. That is just six and a half percent of what the top film took in the same weekend a year ago. It was joker grossed fifty, five, point eight, million, you're listening to marketplace. This, marketplace podcast is supported by personal capital who can help you take control of your finances. No matter where you are download the personal capital APP or start today at personal capital Dot Com to get free professional grade financial tools including a retirement planner and fi analyzer want to talk personal capital has registered advisors by phone or online for qualified users. Personal capital. There's no place like financial confidence. And, by Pendulum, glucose control if you have type two Diabetes Managing Your Blood Glucose spikes is key pendulum. Glucose control is safe and natural medical probiotic clinically proven to lower a one C and Blood Glucose spikes and is designed for the dietary management of type two diabetes. Here's how it works. Since people with type two diabetes have a reduced ability to break down fiber to manage blood glucose. Pendulum Glucose controls patented probiotic formula helps the body's ability to metabolize, Fiber and Maintain Insulin and glucose balance in the gut in a clinical study people with type two diabetes experienced a reduction in a one C and Blood Glucose spikes compared to Placebo when using Pendulum Glucose control unlike off-the-shelf probiotics with General Gut Health Claims Pendulum. Glucose control is a medical probiotic that contains probiotics and prebiotics and is backed by clinical rigor and real results. It is intended for the dietary management of type two diabetes talk to your physician before taking PG see as it may not be right for everyone get twenty five percent off your first bottle. Now, go to pendulum life dot com and use the Promo Code Marketplace twenty-five that's pendulum life dot com and use the Promo code marketplace. Twenty five. This is marketplace I'm Kai Ryssdal with Congress in the White House not able to agree on more economic relief. A lot of the WHO's actually going to do something for this economy attention is falling on the Federal Reserve as it has for a long while now we should say. But this time it's with a twist. The idea that the Fed ought to be doing something to make this economy more inclusive. And that is how I wound up. A couple of panels last week event put on by the Federal Reserve Bank's Boston. And Minneapolis about the Fed's role in the national conversation. We are having about systemic. Racism. About how we got to a place where the average white family has eight times the wealth of the average black family and where people have color are three times as likely as white people die from Kovin Angela Glover Blackwell, she's the founder of an organization called policy link kick things off. We're not going to solve this with pilot programs. We're not going to solve it by just deciding to pay a little more attention to people of Color in our midst. It is going to require a radical imaginations to be able to actually. Actually, bring our imaginations to what would it look like to have a fully inclusive society that was a big idea behind the first panel I did to people who've been trying to make this economy were inclusive for years. Now I started with a question I've been asking a lot lately. When did you understand what racism was in this? Jeffrey. Canada. Who founded the Harlem Children's Zone in New York City and as a longtime advocate for education reform was up I I didn't recognize. This is your race until I was about eight or nine years old and something I'm ashamed. I like most American boy that time playing cowboys and Indians. And the south, Bronx all the little black brown boys running around. No one wanted to be the Indians because the Indians were considered to be the bad people and they began to open my eyes about what people thought about black people. I'm talking late fifties. We were not GB are. You cannot see us in the movie we were servant. And basically made at that point in time. And there was no expectation in the South Bronx that we will going to grow up and have anything that professional jobs and that was brainwashed into US Berry. Jump and then same questions. Dr Carmen, Rojo, she's worked to improve the lives of low wage workers. Currently, she is the president and CEO of the Marguerite Casey Foundation. There was never a moment in my life guy that I can't that I can disentangle. Like the and the place that Latinos are the economy living in spending the vast majority of my life in a place like Oakland, and seeing my black brothers and sisters struggled in the economy not It never felt accidental. It felt like something that was uh seed that had been planted and that we are trying at this moment to make visible to everybody this pandemic has, of course, made a lot of things visible just think about which workers are essential and who lost which jobs in which businesses have been hit the hardest. So we think about solutions what role should the Fed play? Carmen on what you think about what Angela Blackwell said this idea of engaging our radical Naji nations, you have the year this morning or this afternoon depending on where you are of. Three presidents of Federal Reserve Banks. Engage radical education here and tell me what you like to see. Happen action step a crazy idea take your pick. You know I like Angela have been a really fortunate to be on the Federal Reserve's Community Advisory Council. We actually recently had a meeting and I think the thing that is always striking to me is that there is a rich amount of data that the federal. Reserve is the home of some of the key information necessary to situate citizens our economy to understand how people are Living Day to day in the labor market. What's often missing is a historical context and I, my hunch is always at that historical context might feel to political so. A clear example there's we look at a bunch of Cova data and. The place of low wage workers and the economy data At no point. Did we actually make the connection and say low wage workers of color are suffering in the calming because of the set of decisions both on the corporate side and on the policies I, I would love to see the Federal Reserve system tie a tighter not with the data both in the current context but also in the historical making of both our labor market and our economy. Every your radical imagination you're talking to the Fed go. The first thing I would say is that other tools that the Fed has are they really using them and the most creative way now getting trouble with this you know fed doesn't interest rates. Great. Keeping U economy booming guess who that's hurting that's hurting my mother put her money in a savings account thinking that she was going to make enough interest the level she cannot. She cannot know what she going to go invest in stocks. She doesn't know about how to do that. Now I'm not saying the Fed should change is planned for the whole country. Can't we think more creatively about how thanks handle things in savings or communities that have been undeserved so that we encourage saving versus discouraging savings now, I'm not economist don't ask people what the answer to that is I'm just saying have we really thought about each. We've got a link to that whole event on our website marketplace dot org tomorrow on the radio or on the podcast. If you prefer because we do that to my conversation with Rafael Busek Rosengren and neo cash car the presidents of the Atlanta Boston and Minneapolis feds in that order. It's five years. This month that China officially ended its one child policy, which for decades had limited married couples do just that one child now. Too, but the number of births in China last year was the lowest it's been since nineteen sixty, one marketplace Jennifer pack explains what that means for the world's second-biggest economy. Is Sleepy town of Joon. meow is a three hour drive from Shanghai is cornfields. PA- Mellow and FIG trees video producer drunk Manga grew up here she has no siblings she was born under China's one child policy. So her parents were able to spend a lot of money on her. Door don't seem to abandon. I had all sorts of extra classes and things like painting are an English. She's the first in her family to get a college degree and she found a good job in Beijing then she got pregnant. To give her son a better life she got married left. Beijing and move back to the countryside for now she her son and husband live at her parents home. She's found a new job with shorter hours so she can take care of her son but she's not interested in having another child does lead do sit younger this child took my life down a completely different track a second child would place even more restrictions on my career. The problem is the Chinese government makes it hard For people to raise families where they want to as UC Irvine sociology professor one phone puts it You really have to who kind of citizens there are those who are registered in mega cities like Beijing and Shanghai, which have the country's best jobs, hospitals and schools, and then there are those registered in the countryside like drunk she and her husband they can work in the Chinese capital by a home there they have to jump through a lot of hoops says has been fun young. Your if you can't buy property there, you can't send your children to a good public school and without a good education, there is no future in China. So why bother raising children since two, thousand seventeen, the number of births in China has been dropping every year and over the last decade, the Chinese workforce has contracted by forty four million the first industries hit manufacturers. The key home factory is one of the few surviving shoe manufacturers in southern China factory owner Jones says it's hard for him to find workers. Eunson. Young. Young people born under China's one China policy getting more educated, and they don't want to work in factories Chinese officials say the economy needs workers and they abolish the one child policy but China still has rules about family size. If you're a single woman who wants children tough luck freelance writers Utah not her real name because she fears public harassment says she's focused on her career. For now but once the option of having children later would us out? I thought reasonably, eggs was a good idea but Beijing government hospital rejected her because she's not married. She's now suing the hospital for violating her rights on. Saturday hope. Jewish roots tight whenever the issue of population comes up in the news. The discussion is always how to make women have less children or more children. It's always about controlling women's bodies. Back in the town of Joe Arpaio. Picks his son up from daycare his parents want more grandchildren. Wanted to have a second child, but they weren't allowed to now that we're allowed to we don't want to. He wants his son to do than he and his wife have maybe even study in the US and that he says will take all the resources they've got. In Eastern Jeju province I'm. Jennifer pack. For. Marketplace? This. Final note on the way out today a sad cody Kristen Schwab story about the new push to streaming over theaters, AMC the biggest movie theater chain in the country laid it on the line this morning in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission given the reduced movie sleep for the fourth quarter. The company said at the existing cash burn rate Memoranda Euler talked about that yesterday with airlines anyway. At the existing cash burn rate existing cash resources would be largely depleted by the end of twenty twenty or early twenty twenty one furthermore and said the required amount of additional liquidity that is money are expected to be material. All right we're Outta here but here's your moment of economic context on this. Tuesday. Comes to us from the good people at Fitch Ratings they do corporate and government bond ratings basically, how trustworthy those bond issuers are triple a. of course being the gold standard anyway Fitch was out with a note yesterday about how it's possible given all the mail and balanced this year that there is not going to be a clear winner. Tonight and they said this quote strong governance is essential to triple A. Sovereigns countries that is which had characterized by well understood rules and processes for the transfer of power that are broadly accepted and executed. View departure from this principle than it went on negatively in considering the US rating. So. There's that. Our digital and on-demand team include Kerry Barber and Samantha Field Bet Coat Menendez lies mills, and Janet. Win Serve is is our executive director on demand I'm Kai Ryssdal we will see tomorrow about it. This. This marketplace podcast is supported by the Georgia Tech Scheller College of business with MBA programs that develop the agile forward thinking leaders who make tech their vehicle driving change and improving the human condition Georgia tech shaller's fulltime evening and executive MBA programs feature day evening weekend, and hybrid classes that equips students to thrive in an increasingly changing digital. First World Learn more at GT MBA dot com slash marketplace.

Federal Reserve Banks United States Google IMF China Disney professor Microsoft Angela Glover Blackwell Kristen Schwab Kai Ryssdal Los Angeles Congress Kimberly Adams Jennifer pack Minneapolis Nancy Marshall Genzer
China Can't Recover Economy Until Rest Of World Recovers

P&L With Pimm Fox and Lisa Abramowicz

22:42 min | 1 year ago

China Can't Recover Economy Until Rest Of World Recovers

"Welcome to the Bloomberg PNL podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney along with my co host Lisa Abramowicz each day. We bring you the most noteworthy and useful interviews for you and your money whether at the grocery store or the trading floor. Find the Bloomberg PODCAST ON APPLE PODCASTS? Or wherever you listen to podcasts. As well as at Bloomberg Dot Com. We'll China was the first to experience the impact of the Cova nineteen pandemic. It is now the first major economy starting to really come out of it on the other side beginning to open up the economy. Gradually the question is. Are we seeing it in the economic numbers yet? Nobody better to discuss that than Leland. Miller CEO the China Beige Book International based in New York City. Leeann thanks so much for joining us once again give us a sense of the lockdown appears to be ending in China is economy ramping. Back up so many of these terms have lost their meeting. 'cause you know ramping backup recovery. You know when you have an economy that stopped. It was shut down in February. Things are going to get better. So you're GONNA see a recovery to some degree. In March and April. The question is what kind of recovery is this a recovery to earlier levels of growth. Is it a recovery target levels of growth? We're not seeing anything like that. And the big story I think going forward China will be able to get. It's you know it's bigger companies. It's it's higher profile regions up by focus stimulus. How is the rest of the Economy GonNa do though? How is the private sector power? Sme's and this is what our focus has been over the past month looking deepen that data and it showed that the the private sector has had a much more difficult job trying to get back up to speed then some of the more high profile And larger essay type firms. One thing. That is so wonderful about the work that you do. Is You look on the ground. You don't necessarily look at the official data and sort of extrapolate out what that means in terms of the GDP growth rate in China. I'm looking right now. The estimate from economists surveyed by Bloomberg is that China will grow by one point eight percent year over year this is on GDP a real GDP basis in two thousand twenty. Do you agree with that? Do you think that's accurate having? It's a pretty good number. Two months ago. I think this week two months ago you know the three of US had a conversation. I said China two percent growth and everyone in the room laughed because it sounded so outlandish. At that time we are here. We Are you know. The China may be on the top end of global growth and maybe growing at just over zero. So yeah I think I think a realistic way to look at this is is is numbers that are barely in the positive area We'll we'll we'll have to see how the US and Europe recover or not in the third quarter and particularly the fourth quarter to be able to put a number on it. But I think numbers that are anything more than just a bit above zero are are are pretty optimistic sport so Leland you know in the US the economy we've we become accustomed to recognize and that's really consumer driven economy. Made these maybe seventy percent of the US economy's driven by the consumer so if if fiscal stimulus can really address consumer. You can really kind of get the economy back moving again. Give us a sense of how. That's maybe different in China. I think everybody is is to some degree Reliant on on the consumer to play an important part of the bounceback. I think what you're seeing is sort of a multilevel strategy by Beijing and everyone watching Beijing to put their own similar strategy and you gotTA get manufacturing back up. You'll get the factories people back in factories producing things but you need orders those factories so you can put them up and running but it doesn't mean they're going to do that well and then when you look at services okay so you get services firms reopening but our people ordering some are people. Buying CLOTHES STORES THE ECONOMY CAN BE PUT UP AND START. Running again and people are showing up for their jobs. But this is GonNa be a long long long period in which people are slowly getting more comfortable in doing more shopping outside and we're traveling so this is just a long long area and the consumer is not going to be an active part in this early on In the struggle. I'm struggling also understand the political backdrop as president trump in Washington DC. More broadly ramps up pressure on China for a lack of transparency when it comes to the the virus and it spread its original its origination. I'm wondering how is this playing out in China? Do you have a sense of that? Well you know. I think that there is a lot of rallying around the flag. I mean certainly. Domestic surveys are showing that that people are sticking with China and in a very defensive protective Mode but what what what China's been doing has been very very he very dangerous for its global image instead of having come out after You know The Corona virus spread around the globe with very very quiet goodwill approach. It was it was blaming something on Italy blending on the US military blaming Africans For for their partners it's been a very mismanaged approach. And so you're seeing the pushback on China right now with you. Know the desire for countries around the world to have an investigation into the origins of Corona virus. I think the one thing that that that China's actually being helped out by this is they're bunkering down there in protective mode and I think I think people are rallying domestically under the idea that the China's being attacked by the rest of the world so this may be as as ridiculous as it looks as a strategy considering the whole world is getting mad at China right now it may not be the worst domestic strategy if you get everybody on board and it it sort of shifts attention away from the party's role in messing up preparations early on hiding the virus and Shift attention from that. So Leland kind of looking back over the last several months. What is trying to do right in terms of its economy? Was there a big fiscal stimulus on the part of the Chinese center the Konami? You've actually seen a much smaller stimulus so far Then then elsewhere around the globe you know. The the first thing that was that was Was done is that there was There was an offering to to to provide credit to firms to just get by But you saw something much larger United States Of course and so this is You know it's the expectation is that they're gonNA move from this provision of credit to keep things stable to some sort of large heavy infrastructure. Build out we have not seen that in our data you know are few to data's going to be coming out and you know a matter of weeks and so we are. GonNa be watching the property sector very closely but I think the most interesting thing about China's response so far is it hasn't been that big particularly in comparison to what's going on in the United States and other countries so I think that they're waiting to see how things pan out around the globe. And then when they're build out though you may see heavier stimulus so you're seeing active credit. Actor credits biggest. But you're not yet seeing big heavy stimulus and that may be something. We're going to see more of This summer or fall. Do you think that that's leading to people over? Estimating how much Chinese economy can recover. I think that's absolutely the case I mean. Look you just watch the headlines every every couple of weeks some big drop a point or half a point. Gdp projections by the end of the year. You know the important story here is that this is not a China recovery story for now China's recovering to the extent they can but in order for it to be up and running full capacity. You need a recovery around the world. Now that's not going to happen anytime soon. It may not happen at all in twenty twenty and so what they're gonNA need sort of this rollout where they're providing stability their businesses. They're avoiding widespread layoffs. They're avoiding widespread bankruptcies and just keeping things going the best they can while the US gets back line while Europe its own back line and how trade hopefully restarts and and you can slowly get things from their Leila Miller. Thank you so much as always for your insights lead Miller chief executive officer of China Beige Book International Pretty Much Through earning season This quarter but I'm not sure how much investors have really learned with so many companies pulling back on guidance and somebody comes to saying we really don't know how our business is going to perform for the remainder of the year to get a sense of how we might navigate the remainder of twenty from an investment perspective. Welcome Eddie Perkin. Chief Equity Investment Officer for Eaton Vance. I bet five hundred. Eighteen billion dollars under management. They're based in Boston. Eddie thanks so much for joining us. What are the takeaways that you and your team have gleaned from the earnings reports? We've seen over the last couple of weeks. Yeah well thanks for having me I but I don't think we've learned a whole lot to be honest Most companies have pulled guidance. At this point which is what you would expect Earnings generally were okay relative to significantly lowered expectations and I think the futures highly uncertain Warren Buffett said it over the weekend at the Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting. The range of outcomes. Remains very very wide and You know I think it's probably foolish to think that Ceo or CFO of a company is going to have any better idea of what's likely to transfer and the economy in the coming months so I think we're we're living in a world of uncertainty and we all need to get used to it all right Eddie since you mentioned Warren Buffett. Let's go there. A lot of people who took his moves in the first quarter and frankly in April as well of being a net seller of stocks into the weakness and not making any investment. Just to give you a sense. He's cash pile is now a third of his market cap of Berkshire Hathaway with more than one hundred. Thirty billion dollars of cash sitting there. Do you take Eddie as a bearish signal assign that. He sees further losses ahead. That investors should heat. I think you always have to pay attention to what Warren Buffett is up to. He's he's obviously a great investor He has a war chest. He made some very smart moves in the two thousand eight. Two thousand nine period. I think a couple of differences this time around one is everything rebounded so quickly that even for someone like buffet who can move very quickly Things kind of got away from very quickly. He said you know you're starting to get phone calls from people who need capital but as soon as the Fed came in and backstopped everything it Kinda ran away from him in a phone call stopped so I think it. The rebound in the market was so quick that he didn't have a chance to move. I do find it interesting that he spent an extensive Portion of the. Call the optimistic case for America and America's resilient that sort of language but then his actions were very much opposite to that where he was selling his airline stocks and Not Putting money fresh money to work in the market so I think you know. Pay ATTENTION TO HIS ACTIONS. Perhaps more than his words. So are you. Are you in the camp that feels like maybe this rebound off that initial thirty three percent decline in the market? This rebound where we retrace may be half of that declined and granted. It's it's due to all the liquidity put in the marketplace in the federal stimulus. And things like that too much too fast and you not trust it. I'm tempted to go there. I think that that feels right. The problem is I have a lot of companies that view I think. That's the consensus view in the market. Right now and I think people are sort of scratching their heads as to how we were able to recover so quickly when the you know. The fundamentals of the global economy are still highly uncertain. The way I would try to size it again. Operating within a wide range of uncertainty is if you look at twenty twenty one estimate so next year not twenty twenty which is kind of a you know a loss caused at this point but twenty twenty one estimates for twenty twenty one earnings are about twenty percent below. What the Were at what they were forecast to be. Just a few months ago and so that's the hit to next year's earnings that's probably not all permanent And probably estimates were too high to begin with. But aren't let's say earnings are down kind of for several years and into into the future ten percent and then you use a higher risk premium given all the uncertainty. Maybe the right mark down for stocks is about fifteen percent given what we know today. That's about where the broad market averages are so maybe the markets got it about right. I think what's interesting is beneath the surface. You have large cap growth stocks which are barely down at all and in some cases are higher and you have a beaten up. Small caps deep value. Stocks Energy Financials. That are down thirty to fifty percent so I think the interesting calls to make our beneath the surface not with the market aggregates. All right so let's go there with the Russell two thousand in particular. I was looking at the earnings figures so far about halfway through the earnings season and the Russell. Two thousand companies are getting beaten up way more than the bigger ones. Not that surprising. Are you gonNa make a contrarian case and say that it's time to pile in and that that's all been priced in? I wouldn't be as bold as that but I would say at the margin that's where investors should be putting money. I think you should be putting money into value. Stocks at the margin should be putting money into small-cap stocks at the margin. If you look at I was looking at Carafe to the the other day on Bloomberg actually of the Russell One thousand growth versus the Russell two thousand value so large growth versus small value over the last three years and Large had beaten small value by nearly ninety percent cumulatively. So you're now at a point where the large cap growth stocks the the big tech stocks are at a you know sixty percent premium to the market valuation and small values at a fifty percent discount. So there's a very wide range from evaluation perspective that I think I'm as a value investor. I'm I'm pilot tempted by. The timing of that call is difficult so I would do it very gradually dollar cost average and and Kinda rebalance into the part of the market. That has lagged behind. Eddie thank you so much for being with US Eddie Perkins Chief Equity Investment Officer at Eaton Vance overseeing more than five hundred billion dollars at that firm Warren Buffett of Berkshire hathaway certainly set the tone when he came out and said he was a net seller of equity so far this year exiting his stakes in the major. Us airlines saying that it was a changed game for them. Also talking about that cash pile. I mean this has been really a big question. What will he do with the more than one? Hundred and thirty billion dollars in cash Chapelle Bloomberg opinion columnist covering berkshire-hathaway for years and Warren Buffett. Can we first started talking about his tone? He saved pretty somber and he also normally does talk about the dynamism of the US economy. And he he got there but did there seem like there was a little bit of lack of conviction Tara. Yeah I mean I could see why today people are saying that you know he was a little bit pessimistic but I think he was also just being realistic. I mean he did start Austin meeting with sort of a Beautiful Thurman about how America is going to get through this and I think it's kind of what people need to hear at moment. It reminded me a little bit of like when we listen to Governor Cuomo and you kind of leave their you know you feel a little bit down about some of the news. What WE'RE HEARING? What's happening but at the same time? There's like that little bit of hope and that's what I got from buffet. But he you know. He isn't buying stocks. He isn't doing deals and that does say a lot about what he thinks about. This moment right now. I think a big piece of that is that the Fed has taken extraordinary actions to kind of prop up the markets and that has eliminated some of that opportunity that you would normally expect by two season a moment like this. So terror is there. I know you talked to a lot of buffet. Watchers is there sector of the economy is her an industry that they would like to see him. Allocate some real capital. We're talking tens of billions of dollars whether it's financials or consumer or energy. I think it depends who you ask you know everyone. I've talked to has how different opinion on that. And I think maybe the only consensus is that they WANNA see buffet. Spend THAT CASH. And he kind of knows that he's not really sure where to spend it right now that even though he still. You know very much confident in America's future you know he's America's biggest cheerleader that he thinks that this pandemic is going to change consumer behavior and because of that it's having him rethink what he thinks about. Some of these specific industries long-term like the airline industry where he seemed to be all in and all of a sudden he has completely exited. I'm struggling with the idea of of the Fed backstop that he talked about. And I guess what I'm struggling with is the idea. The Fed has propped up valuations of companies that might have otherwise been left for dead and forced to reach out to a Warren Buffett. Where would enable him to offer terms that would be beneficial to him in probably worse for these companies? What I'm struggling to understand is Warren Buffett's reluctance to lend to these companies. A statement about their lack of viability. Or is it a statement of just a lack of profitability with these loans that previously he would have enjoyed saying the two thousand eight two thousand nine period? It's a difference. Yeah it's a good question and it's hard to know his thinking about my feeling coming out of that meeting and what he was saying was more the ladder that they're willing to do anything if the terms are right you know if they look at a business and they think that it's going to be around for a long time even though it's going through a difficult period now that they're they want to be all in on it but it needs to be at a price that works for him and he's very very picky about that you know as the market went through this period of a bunch of mergers and all these different companies making deals on the sidelines. Because you said even though there's a lot out there we would like to buy and not let these other companies get ahold of. We are not willing to pay their evaluations. And I guess right now. It's a little bit different than the financial crisis where he kind of had his You know pickings and right now. He's saying yeah. It looks like things are down but it was really temporary and nowhere near as deep as it was in two thousand and eight came out this morning in the retail space. J. Crew filed for bankruptcy felled by the pandemic as well as a heavy debt load incurred from previous leveraged buyout. The question I think for many investors simply is just the first domino to fall in the beleaguered retail space to get a sense of where retail is going how it's dealing with this pandemic. We welcome Poonam goal senior. Us retail analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence Poonam. Thanks so much for joining us here. I guess this J. Crew News just kind of crystallizes for a lot of investors that gee retail space has really been under a lot of stress over the past decade or so as more and more people shop online. Now you layer on top of that. The pandemic will that be just too much for a lot of these retailers to bear yet he kind of you kind of developments in the retail space. Thanks Paul I think I think the question here really. Is You know. The retail space husband undetermined had lost decade and What we're seeing now is penn. Democ is retailers. Ever highly leveraged the had a lot of guts finding it hard to see a path to recovery given the uncertainty that we face today so I think what does accelerate the essentially the fallout of retailers. That do have a lot of debt coming to in a short period of time so the next twelve to twenty four months they really need to either see a path to be able to fulfill those obligations or seek some sort of protection such as chapter eleven bankruptcy just to to look at some numbers that came out from. Fitch Ratings today so J. crews bankruptcy pushes the twelve month trailing default rate for loan for loans in the retail space to nine percent from seven percent at the end of April and they predict that this default rate will reach nine thousand nine hundred percent by year end Neiman. Marcus J. C. Penney up next with expected insolvencies. I'm just wondering poonam. Are they going to come out of bankruptcy? I mean J. crew is actually would be staying open if it were opened. But it's not open a chapter eleven bankruptcy. Are we going to continue to see these names or is this the end of them? I think you'll still see some of these names for Jake or you know. I read in the really. They were talking about keeping. Meanwhile Antique Stores Open once. They can reopen for business. If you look back just to J. crew you know they've really suffered from product quality issues from just being off point to stash in the last decade or it's in the last few years really been in the third quarter when they did their last quarter of their sales that made while sales were up ten percent and jake salesman fake were flat and they did start to show some improvement so the brand still has some equities. It's just with the debt that they have in place. It was hard for them to overcome that and really re grow the business When you talk about someone like Penney you know. The question is a lot bigger than because it's a department store. A department store is still relevant. Question all the time Do they need to have eight hundred plus stores that they have? I think there's a lot more consolidation happening in that space than there is in a brand that you know can relate and reconnect back with the customer so is the traditional retail mall enclosed mall. I'm thinking is that really going to be at risk here. I know in the past. There's been pressure on these calls but it seems like I might even be more enhanced now post pandemic absolutely more than a thousand Enclosed all and was really you know less than half of them being considered as centers. I WANNA BE AB plus centers as because I think the suit accelerate so the close out of these mall. They're really these mall morphing into other types of destinations. We've heard from the gap and other retailers. That as they look at the stories of the closed You know. Many of them may not reopen ever again so as that starts to happen more broadly across the board a certain centers. You can argue that maybe centers. Don't even we open again and put them coil. Thank you so much for being with us. Put them oil senior. Us retail analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Piano. Podcast you can subscribe been listened to interviews at Apple podcasts or whatever podcast platform you prefer on Paul Sweeney. I'm on twitter at PT. Sweeney and Lisa Abramowicz on twitter at Lisa Abramowicz. One before the podcast. You can always catch US worldwide on Bloomberg radio.

China US Bloomberg Warren Buffett Leland kind Paul Sweeney Eddie Fed America China Beige Book International Berkshire Hathaway Europe Marcus J. C. Penney Lisa Abramowicz Russell Chief Equity Investment Office Bloomberg Piano
How'd retailers do this holiday season?

Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal

27:25 min | 2 years ago

How'd retailers do this holiday season?

"This marketplace podcast is brought to you by sign now e signature solution that powers workflows for organizations such as zoom, Xerox. And the Boston Red Sox create an collaboratively manage e-signature workflows while tracking their progress in real time from any device. Visit sign now dot com slash marketplace. And get a free thirty day trial. This marketplace podcast is brought to you by. Indeed, are you hiring with indeed you can post a job in minutes set up screener questions than zero in on your shortlist of qualified candidates using an online dashboard get started today at indeed that com slash marketplace. That's indeed dot com slash marketplace. So here's the reality gang. The government is partially shut down still and yes, an amazing political story the economy though, oh, it never sleeps from American public media. This is marketplace. In Los Angeles. I'm KAI result is Thursday today. The tenth of January good as always to have you along everybody. You remember way back before the holidays, all those great retail. Forecasts. We were getting consumer confidence was high. The economic numbers were good sales were gonna be great turned out to be a bit of a mixed bag actually some of the big retailers like target and Costco, have posted strong sales of late others to wit. Macy's N J C Penney. Well, they have struggled. Marketplace's run out of sago gets us going with retail. It's Arkansas a five point seven percent jump in online sales for most of November and all of December the retailers increasingly online focused offering shoppers more options for how to buy and pick up stuff. Rod sites is with Deloitte. He says making things easier for consumers one key to success. These days and Venus has become a new currency of retail targets digital push isn't just about shopping online. It's about making the store experience better. And that. It's helping drive sales says Soochow Rita KC, e with forester research. One example, they have which lets you get certain promotions in the physical store, and then the other is that they have a lot of location specific information, which lets consumers know, which stores have certain products in stock. Another retailer finding success with its increasing focus on ecommerce is WalMart, which is posted a string of quarters with strong sales not doing so well in recent months some department stores like Macy's which suffers from being located in many, lower traffic shopping, malls, David Silverman is with Fitch Ratings. They may have to stores that are within a few miles of each other in centers that are nearby each other occasionally over time they've had two locations in in one mall. Macy's posted sales growth of just over one percent for the recent holiday period. Ed JC Penney which you can also find in many mall sales fell three and a half. Percent for the nine weeks that ended January fifth the lesson here. Invest in digital don't be in malls. I'm not a say go for marketplace. We're going to go from mixed industry. News retail to a straight up gloomy industry story. The Ford Motor Company announced this morning. It is going to transform its operations in Europe. That's their word transform, and it was doing a lot of work in the press release today because plants are going to be closed models are going to be discontinued. And what one company executive called a significant number of Ford's fifty thousand European employees are gonna lose their jobs. The news comes as the European economy has been showing some signs of slowing down in consumer demand. For cars, pretty much everywhere is changing Ford is the last American carmaker with a big presence on the continent. But as marketplace's Justin ho reports Europe is an industry wide. Problem Ford's been making cars in Europe for over a century, but executives say making money there has been difficult for decades. David Wisden at MorningStar says Ford is not alone. General Motors sold off its Europe. Brands in two thousand seventeen one reason GM gone on for example, because they hadn't made money since the late nineties there, and they finally gave up after Brexit vote. Brexit could make life more difficult for Ford to David Bailey at the Aston business school in Birmingham. England says if there's a hard Brexit dopey a ten percent tariff that will make the more expensive people like you to switch to the Browns. Bailey's is demand is soft on the continent to but Ford has its own structural problems resent a big contraction in what Europeans would say you've got a small to medium sized cows, not particularly impacts on food because that's why they were particular market leaders lately. Europeans have started to favor SUV's and crossovers you'd think those would be right in Ford's wheelhouse. The Carl brower at Kelley blue book says European automakers have mastered their own style of bigger boxer vehicles. They became much more competitive with you know, US vehicles that were for sale over there that didn't have much appeal Ford isn't leaving Europe completely at the Detroit auto show next week. It's reportedly announcing. A partnership with Volkswagen Europe's number one automaker. If they are able to come together and rebrand and slightly restyle some Volkswagen product that they sell as a Ford, it's a lot less expensive. And it maintains their presence there back in July Ford announced an eleven billion dollar plan three shape. It's entire business. Brower says that means divisions in markets that are performing poorly like Europe are under the gun in New York unjust in hope for marketplace. J bowel did an event day in New York. The fed share in a lunchtime onstage conversation with billionaire, David Rubenstein. He founded the Carlisle group, whereas it happens Powell ones worked just for the record Rubinstein is also the president of the economic club of New York, which hosted lunch, anyway, one particular thing caught our era and literally this was in the first couple of minutes of pal talk and see if you can tell what grab this. The good thing is we're in a place where we can be patient. We have the ability to be patient and watch patiently and carefully. Second. As I mentioned it gives us the opportunity to. Patient and watch aren't so I fit in -ticipant at your next FOMC meeting a big increase in interest rates. You shouldn't -ticipant that we're going to be patient and watching. All right. Well, I'm waiting and seeing. I mean props the Rubinstein for asking the question, right? Palo is nothing. If not on message, making sure Wall Street knows he is listening. Speaking of which Wall Street that is it's going to be the happy music when we get there. We're now on day twenty of the government shutdown Tamar ties the record of Twenty-one. It's also going to be the first missed paycheck for hundreds of thousands of government workers. There are personal costs to all of this politics. And of course, but there are broader costs as well, especially when you consider all the essential employees people who still have to go to work paycheck or not years Muris is an assistant professor of management and human resources at the university of Wisconsin school of business where he studies personal finances, and those broader costs welcome to the program. So we know that losing your income can be stressful. The thing I wanted to touch base with you on is what happens when that stress affects your job. And I'm thinking about some of the people who've been declared essential working without pay TSA FBI air, traffic, controllers what happens to them as they try to perform at the high level that we expect in my research. I consistently found when employees are worried about their finances. I can undermine their ability to breathe productive at work. And this is not just how much they work or how much they're able to do. But also, the quality of their work. And so what you find is that for example, truck drivers are more likely to get accidents students do worse in clay in the classroom, and Phil you across all these jobs. What we've found is that one people have just financial security. It's going to affect them at work. And now you have federal workers who are deemed to be. Midal to national security who are working without getting a paycheck, and who are who are also uncertain about their financial future. And so we would expect those same effects. They're more errors and declining safety relevant to be to be completely candid, I'm a reader of Jim Fallon's is calling the Atlantic. He's a he's a friend of the program and we've had him on many times. And and he's how we found you and Jim is very aviation focused. So let me keep going in that vein air traffic controllers. I saw a tweet today from a guy who's been an air traffic controller for twenty years twenty nine years and just got a zero dollar pay stub. What does it do to you as you're driving planes around the sky or helping them get there? Very psychological level. What does that when people have financial issues or they have insecurity about their financial state? It tends to invoke inside. And that leads us to to focus on it. And it's for two reasons one is because we just think about it more often. But also because you don't wanna show it to people and that the Russian of what we're going through also focus, it's actually our attention on it. And so because we're so focused on it. We can't focus on our work throughout the day. And so if you have an air traffic controller who they get their paycheck, and now they're worried about their mortgage. Well, they're not going to be out the tentative to the things that we would want them to attend to and probably that they will want to attend to does this go away once in our immediate example, the shutdown is ended. I mean, if the shutdown ends tomorrow are we good? The unfortunate answer is. Most likely. No. So there's many reports aft- shown that in the United States. Their personal financial welfare is very very poor. Most people don't have four hundred dollars in case of emergency. And so this government shutdown is just exacerbating that and these effects of this shutdown on these people will last for very very long time. And so we should really concerned about about what's going on. And think about ways to address those issues thirty years Mira's teaches at the university of Wisconsin business school where he studies financing society and people's finances. Thanks a lot. I preach Dunn. Thanks for having me. Two data points now about the Chinese economy that might give one pause first of all the apple news of last week the shortfall in iphone revenue entirely set apple CEO, Tim cook due to China and number two Beijing. Yes. Just yesterday reporting the first drop in auto sales in twenty years, Bullock, there's data. And then there's what people are really doing. Right. So are China? Correspondent Jennifer pack went out onto the streets of Shanghai to get a sense of how Chinese consumers are actually feeling. It's a gray and rainy day here in Shanghai. But that's not stopping shoppers from coming here to nine hundred pedestrian street. It's a very popular shopping area where you can get gap. There's a Tudor house set cells Korean makeup, a Rolex shop a Chinese pharmacy with so many choices what are people by. You'll Dr on the baby clothes says who you and walking. Xiaojun Fung and his friends are shopping for handbags and jewelry for their wives while snacking on sticky rice, desserts, but otherwise John phone says he's cutting back on spending. The company I work for isn't doing. Well. It's metal parts factory. He says he hasn't received his salary for a few months. So he's cancelled an annual visit to his home village for the upcoming lunar new year holiday. Down the street. Loud music plays from clothing shots to attract customers, like don't you? Wait who spent his entire salary every month? So has he felt the economic slowdown? You know, he says and many shoppers here. Tell me the same thing that's partly because China's economy is still growing at a faster rate than the US and Europe says Louis cause of Oxford economics. Can expect to robust wage increases this year. And the bulk of people will not be at the risk. Their job will disappear. He says most families in China have seen their lives improve drastically for years. Take the Liu family. They're visiting from central China. How do you do? And didn't grow up with a law. But his two year old grandson is already learning English and drinking one of the most expensive brands of milk formula. Grandsons milk powder is from Denmark cost about sixty dollars per can. But for himself, he still saving everything he can in case he gets sick because wild China is a communist state with public health care, a serious illness can still bankrupt a family. Most people also save a lot for retirement housing and education for their children, which means in a weaker economy some consumers cut back on the extras that would be bad news for US firms. But at least one American brand isn't afraid last month Red Lobster opened its first branch in greater China in Shanghai with the help of f w Wm restaurants. David Martin winnow seeing the people don't want to ever go out with seeing the when this is celebration that wanna make sure they're making the right choice that using go brands because then looking for security, and they want to know that something's good behind us. Melody Wong in Austin Chen, have ordered lobster talk. Macos a pot of seafood soup salad and a bottle of wine. They say this meal will cost them well over one hundred dollars which is normal for the couple and consumers like them are driving much of the growth for American and global firms a reminder that what people in China, do and do not buy impacts the rest of the world in Shanghai. I'm Jennifer pack for marketplace. Coming up the bit of wage is gonna keep on increasing than we should try to keep it up with, you know, the cost of living because living, you know, can be costly first though, let's do the numbers. Down Bustros up one hundred and twenty two points today. A half percent for the blue chips twenty four thousand and one NASDAQ twenty eight points to the good four tenths percent, sixty nine eighty six the S and P five hundred found eleven points four tenths percent twenty five and ninety five as we mentioned, not all retail had a happy holiday particular. Macy's which nounce it didn't sell as much as antiquated. Macy's shares. Tarnish more than seventeen percent today that helped push couple of other retailers down as well. Calls in JC Penney. Both discount in more than four percent even target which has or not it was telling us headstrong holidays ELS results off two and eight tenths percent. They talked about Ford Motor Company in Europe Ford sputtered more than a half percent today. General Motors down one and a quarter percent, the German automaker. Volkswagen downshifted one percent today. Bond prices fell yield on the ten year treasury note rose to two point seven four percent. You're listening to marketplace. 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Annuities are smart way to ease the risk of outliving your savings because you know, you'll be getting a monthly income you can count on for the rest of your life will you'll receive from your savings investments and social security, and what you'll actually need in retirement, maybe two very different numbers. So at retire. That org. You and your financial adviser can see how a nude is can help fill the potential gap. So you can make the most informed decisions regarding your retirement. Whether you're a season investor are just beginning to plan, your retirement, find out if making annuities vital component of your portfolio is the right choice for you. Protect your income retire your risk. Learn more at retire your risk dot org. That's retire. Your risk dot org. This is marketplace, I'm KAI Ryssdal. The new York Stock Exchange, you know, the NASDAQ, you know, there's the American stock exchange you may or may not know that won a bunch of others as well. It's a list to which we might soon be adding a group of nine big finance companies Morgan Stanley. Fidelity also Charles Schwab announced this week. They're going to start up a new stock exchange. The members exchange going to be called mimics for short Alexandros Povich covers exchanges for the Wall Street Journal. Welcome to the program. Thanks for having me. Why do these companies feel like they need another exchange? I mean, it's not like we don't have a bunch already. Well, we do have a bunch of exchanges, but they're owned essentially almost entirely by three big companies and the three big companies have become in the views of many of their customers. Kind of an olive -opoly. They are charging a lot of money to trade and their customers have gone ticked off about back me up for a minute. Here. You got to pay money to trade. I mean, I know that sounds like ridiculous question. But I don't think a lot of people understand that exchange. Changes themselves are businesses. Yes. So exchanges. Now in the US are all for profit businesses. They collect a small fee every time stocks are traded on the exchange on top of that they've found other various fees, they can charge in particular for market data. Basically, if you're a big trader, you need to have a live feed of all the prices of what stocks are trading on exchange at any given time, and that costs a lot of money and increase a lot of past few years. And so that data is there is there a commodity. It's their thing. Right. Yeah. And while the actual transaction fees have been kept in check by regulation. Data fees have been going up a lot, and it's not just data fees. But also the cost of having a high speed connection in the data center is centrally being able to plug in your cable into the exchanges systems costs a lot of money. Right. Okay. So how is this new members exchange going to be different? So the members exchange is harking back to an old idea, which is the member owned exchange, basically. In the old days the exchange was controlled by its members. So basically the brokers and traders were allowed to trade on the exchange own the exchange, and we'll set the rules for the exchange and they set the fees. So that's back in the day. When when you used to have a seat on the new York Stock Exchange, right? Exac, right. It was the seat holders is another way of putting it so they essentially ran the exchange in their interests. And there are some problems with that, you know, starting in roughly the nineteen nineties the exchanges as they said demutualise, so the became private for profit companies. Eventually they IPO right, then they began to be owned by exchange companies and the exchange companies have to make a profit. So they charge more fees to their customers. And since the customers use own some of the customers got kind of ticked off about this off. Right. So so the the members exchange will will go back to that older model, I suppose, but then you know, who's keeping an eye on them. And and how do we know that it's all on the up and up? I mean, there is a transparency issue here. Right. Yeah. Well, the exchange business in general is very tightly regulated by the SEC everything an exchange does they has to be approved by the SEC. And so it is pretty strictly overseen the the first hurdle for the members exchange will be to simply get approved as an exchange about us. He see they have to put an application which there say they're going to early this year, and it often takes up to a year to get approval for that. And it's a long and excruciating process because other people can weigh in and criticize your model. So now might be a big regulatory fight over whether it mimics can even become an exchange for starters, Alex. Thanks a lot preach time. Thanks by Alexandros Povich there. He covers exchanges for the Wall Street Journal. Speaking of exchanges, by the way, coming up tomorrow on the marketplace morning report, you're gonna want to pay attention to airline stocks thousand nineteen. No, we're gonna let good. According to the national consortium of state legislatures. Eight states raised their minimum wages on January first because of laws tying minimum wages to the consumer price index the official policy language for that linkage is that the minimum wage is indexed to inflation. And among the states that do it is Ohio home to the marketplace hub at W CPN idea. Stream in Cleveland Wentz. Adrian reports that indexing like the economy itself has them ups and downs. Could be for you today. It's just after three o'clock and Fantasia Pettus is wrapping up her shift at a subway sandwich. Shop in downtown Cleveland. Thank she clocks out, take some change from the tip jar and heads out the door. I mean, I love my job because I love the people that I work with they make it really easy Pettus makes a higher minimum wage now eight dollars and fifty five cents an hour. And although it was raised automatically by twenty five cents last week. She says I felt like it's not enough just because the wind up a quarter. I mean, you can find a quarter on walking down the street. We do some quick math and find the race comes to about forty three extra bucks a month before taxes is forty three dollars. What does that mean to you? Found in when asked Pettus whether she feels like she's getting by she shrugs and says barely minimum wage. Really is a struggle. Not only does she have trouble meeting basic expenses. But according to the consumer price index those basics are getting more expensive about two percent higher than last year Benz zipper with the progressive Economic Policy Institute says that's where index in comes in handy. So you know, if the cost of groceries gasoline housing goes up by X percent in Ohio the minimum wage that following years going to go up by the same percent. Unlike the federal minimum wage, which has been stuck at seven twenty five for years tying these increases that there's some kind of automatic process makes them much more predictable make some much easier to plan around not just for workers. He says, but also for employers the bit of wage is gonna keep on increasing. Then we should try to keep it up with. You know, the cost of living. That's Alex Gleason, he manages a neighborhood. He joined called the old angle tavern. He says his employees actually get more than Ohio's minimum wage. So if the floor only increases a couple percent every year it'll be a while before his business feels any pressure. He says what really concerns them is talk of a fifteen dollars minimum wage, so very low profit margin business. So that would be a big deal for businesses are barely getting by and Aparna mater with the conservative American Enterprise Institute says a wage hike that large could also hurt employee's because you could find that those same employers are now less likely to hire new minimum wage wilko's. They're less likely to keep existing workers on the job or employers might replace those workers with machines. Now, all that said if inflation stays relatively low two-three three percent, monitor says employers can offset some of those hikes by passing on the cost to consumers. You know, the employment affects a likely. To be minimal the benefit of an automatic increase says zipper from the Economic Policy Institute is that when the cost of living goes up so will the minimum wage, but what if that's still not enough? Well, if you don't raise the minimum wage to an appropriate level to begin with indexing kind of locks it in that level, according to MIT's living wage calculator, a single adult. No high. Oh needs to earn about ten dollars and forty seven cents an hour to state just above the poverty line. The state's current minimum wage is now nearly two dollars short of that in Cleveland. I'm Adrienne mop for marketplace. This final note on the way out another quick bit from the Jay Powell lunch. David Rubenstein asking the questions, if people wanna come see you. Let's suppose bankers wanna see you community bankers. What's the best way to get a meeting with you? So I'm I'm very easy to find. You can you can people can find me quite easily by calling the fed and you'll get you'll get put through to public affairs or even to my office two zero two four five two you can Google it yourself. But can you imagine Alan Greenspan doing that, by the way? Are we're out of here on shutdown date twenty. Here's where things stand down. Dust was up one hundred twenty two points about a half percent. The NASDAQ up twenty eight points four tenths percent, the S and P five hundred eleven points higher four tenths percent there as well. Amir Vali John Buckley eve Epstein, John, Gordon, Herron mckellar, and Betsy Streisand or the marketplace editing staff the managing editor is deputy. I'm KAI Ryssdal. We will see tomorrow. This is APN.

Ford Motor Company United States China Europe Macy York Stock Exchange David Rubenstein Volkswagen KAI Ryssdal Wall Street Journal General Motors fed Jim Fallon Cleveland Economic Policy Institute Ohio Costco Xerox Jay Powell
A few weeks in, how are colleges doing?

Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal

27:34 min | 10 months ago

A few weeks in, how are colleges doing?

"This marketplace policy is supported by the Georgia Tech Scheller College of business with MBA programs that develop agile forward thinking leaders who make tech their vehicle for driving change to learn more visit gt MBA, dot com slash marketplace, and by alarm dot com teamwork makes the dream work alarm dot com makes your homework all with one single SMART APP alarm dot Com Unites Your security locks, doorbell camera lights, video cameras, and Thermostat into one smart system with one smart app to control at all plus alarm dot com alert you when there's unusual activity in and around your home learn more at alarm dot com. I know what we're looking at for this economy you. We'll tell you what we know on the program today from American public media. This is marketplace. In Los Angeles I'm Carl Rozelle Tuesday Dad do believe the twenty, nine, th of September good as always to have along everybody our lead story today is a tale of a balancing act of retailers in this economy trying to overcome simply terrible I three quarters of the year. By finishing strong, you'll hear elsewhere in the program today of indicators were watching to educate our guesses about where things are going but a report from the accounting consulting firm. Bdo chose twenty-nine big retailers filed for bankruptcy protection in this economy through August and that if things continue at that pace, we will match two thousand, ten the dark days after the great recession. So for all the retailers still getting by the last three months of the coming year, that is this year are going to be even more critical than usual as they go looking for some hope in the holidays marketplace's Justin Ho starts us off. The report found that bankrupt retailers have closed almost six thousand stores. This year retailers that have seen the most bankruptcies sell apparel shoes products. We just haven't been buying much during the pandemic stores in malls have been especially hard hit. You've got eight or nine hundred stores spread across malls. In the United States, you probably need about half the stores Brian Yarbrough is an analyst with Edward Jones. He says the big box retailers are spending more to attract consumers who just aren't going to the mall and WanNa shop online you're seeing the walmarts and the targets of the. World Invest. Billions of dollars a year in technology these small companies can't keep up but many retailers rely on their physical locations and are struggling to stay competitive and attract shoppers during a critical holiday season David. Berliner at BDO says, that could include services like contact list checkout or in store pickup for online orders whenever they can do to make consumers feel safe going into these brick and mortar stores Berliner says what retailers need to figure out is what makes sense for physical store to be profitable to make sure that Rick and mortar stores are in the right place? The right size for you know I think stores could be smaller than. Alvin. Designed years ago Berliner says the pandemic has just accelerated a trend of store closures throughout the US that's because he says the country has been over stored for years. I'm Justin Ho for marketplace after the debate this evening by the way, there's a debate. This evening Joe Biden is going to start a campaign swing through Ohio and Pennsylvania tomorrow morning, and he is going to do it. By train. We bring this up because earlier this month Amtrak's CEO William. Flint is his name. He told Congress that the railroad needs another two point eight billion dollars in fresh federal funding to help make up for pandemic losses, and in the meanwhile Amtrak is planning to cut back a lot of its long distance routes from daily departures to three times a week marketplaces and dealer has this look at infrastructure economics on the rails. Technically, Amtrak is a for profit business, but it's more like a public service that's John Mack Humber at the Harvard Business School, it has material subsidy each year from the federal government of equal to about A. Third of its operating revenues that material subsidies about two billion dollars before the pandemic Amtrak's finances were all that bad. In fact, last November it announced its smallest operating loss of about thirty million dollars. Baroque Feigenbaum is with the reason foundation with cove nineteen. A ridership is down significantly down eighty percent from a year ago, and that's why Amtrak's planning to furlough ten percent of its workforce and cut some long distance services like trains the travel from San Antonio Chicago were Seattle to Los Angeles at Tracks Long Distance Service. A loses a lot of money to the best of times in. So now we're talking about really significant losses. They just cannot sustain. Amtrak already got a billion dollars in covert relief money Feigenbaum says additional federal funding just isn't a good investment. But Jim Matthews with a rail passengers. Association says, Amtrak. Service cuts could cost the interior regions of the country billions when that ridership falls everything that goes along with that ridership falls with it the tourism spending the restaurant spending anything that benefits from those riders gets cut. So he says Congress should step up with additional funding. I may dealer for marketplace. Little bumpy in equities today details, numbers, you know the drill. We, are a week officially today in the fall, which for those in the flower business usually marks the end of the slow summer season as things get busy heading into the holidays this year though as we are all too well aware. Things are anything but usual especially for Christina Stumble, she is the CEO and founder of a direct to consumer flower company called, Farm? Girl Flowers. We've talked to her a couple of times this year including as it happens today Christine. It's good to talk to you again. Thanks for having me guy as you could be here. Where have we gotten you because you're you're not where you weren't last time we talked. I am not. I'm down in Ecuador. Kito actually. Doing a supply chain trip. Planning for. Our gross next year and and now is the time to be planning for planting season. With growers down here speaking of growth for next year this year. Out we had John Back around. Mother's Day this year turned out to be pretty good for you unexpectedly. So yeah. Yeah. This you know when we talked last week just gotten through a really good mother's Day and we were just so grateful and counting your blessings from that and then was really concerned about summer summers always a you know much harder time for US sales usually go down thirty to fifty percent during the summer months and we didn't see that happen this year at all. For the summer months, we were about one hundred percent growth year over year, which was just incredible for us. So. We're really grateful for that. You know I bet but how come you had such great growth because as you know, this has been a questionable year economy was absolutely everything. This year is up in the air, and so it's just a lot of guests work. I think one is that we just have incredible customers that really rallied around us and support us with their dollars, and then the second reason I think is just a lot of. What's going on in the world we're benefiting from somewhat which I feel a little guilty saying when so many people are are hurting but we're ECOMMERCE when people can't be with others that they love around him personally, and so they're sending a lot of gifts and in the gifting space and so I think ecommerce companies and the gifting space are are benefiting from it and I don't WanNa take lightly or for granted you know I get that but look you benefit. From being in the gifting space, in ECOMMERCE on the on the consumer facing end but what has the pandemic and and supply chain disruptions which are global, right? What does that done to? Yeah it's been incredibly challenging. So for US growers for everyone in the supply chain space, it's just like I said a lot of guesswork which is not where you want to be a business owner standpoint. You don't be making what feels like uneducated guesses lot at the time. Another question of course has to be how you're taken care of workers in your suppliers because the virus is still out there I don't know what it's like Ecuador but I can't imagine. It's great. Yes. So actually I actually contracted the virus myself personally and it was really bad. Abe lasted about six weeks and you know there are moments where I didn't know if I was going to make it. It was really really hard and it I can't say grateful for having a really hard but. I'm grateful for what I learned from it because I had Kobe and went through it in Sao, what it could do for someone you know the biggest thing I want to do as a business owner is make sure that we're keeping people safe as possible. So something we implemented was we test all of our employees every two weeks and that's our dime we we pay for that fully and then the second thing we've done is make sure that if people are sick with it that they don't have to worry about anything except for getting better so we will pay them for the full amount of time that. They're out. So we're really trying to do everything. We can to make sure that we're keeping our team safe and if they do get sick that we take care of them while they're sick as well I'm going to guess that these policies are informed by you having been attacked by this thing for six weeks right? Absolutely. Absolutely. I saw how hard it and I don't want anybody to go through that. Yeah. last thing in and then I'll let you get back to work given everything you've been through this year and and the prospects for this economy roll the dice for me think in for next year. Yeah I feel like that's what we're doing early in the series. Totally. I've tried to do as much analysis as I can to be as wise as I can going into next year but really I have no idea. I don't know if we're going to go into a recession and what I'm doing down here in Ecuador really hard right now to figure out, you know I'm guaranteeing numbers of props that we're going to grow and what if there's a huge downturn next year and we still have millions of dollars approx that we for it. So I don't know what next year looks like I have a lot of hope I. Hope that you know that we're not in a place next year where I'm talking to you and I'm like, Oh, my gosh. What are we GONNA do? Well we will call you in a couple of months. Christina. Has Gone Christina stumble she is the founder and CEO of farm girl flowers got her in Ecuador today Christina thanks a lot. Thank you so much for having time. We'll get the latest report on construction spending on Thursday and other data point to help us figure out where this economy is headed. One of the ways we keep track of how things are going by checking in with the ten people from our series about the American labor force, it's called the United States of Work Rosia. Montana is twenty five years old. Now, we first met her near the beginning. Of Her career as a construction worker here in Los Angeles when she was living with her mom and saving up for a place of our own, I was thinking about moving out this year. But since the whole pandemic happen and it's still going on I would just rather stay at home in save gives I actually don't know what's going to happen or how much longer this is going to be. The biggest thing for me is that I'm still I'm still able to work even if scoring down a little bit because of the pandemic I still have a job. Now I'm on a new project and it's different because it's a parking structure in now it's different working like right under the sun even though it is harder more intensive labor seeing how they work around concrete from preparing it and to. Putting everything like all the rebar like the the reinforcement bars, how they tie it together I think that's what's interesting. It's just exciting learning and seen how different things work and how different things put together. Rossio Montano she's helping to build parking garage a by La. Coming up I was pleasantly surprised when I found a stash of tree ripened peaches Oh yeah. That's a good fine first though let's do the numbers. Dow Industrial's down one hundred thirty one points on this. Tuesday four tenths percent twenty, seven, thousand four, five to the Nasdaq down thirty two points about two tenths percent eleven thousand, eighty five. P Five hundred down sixteen points four tenths percent finished at thirty, three and thirty five beyond meat. The meat alternative maker Rose better nine percent today as in announced they tripling of the number of Walmart stores that are going to carry. It's patties that deal. Let's be on meat rely less on selling its product restaurants, which are, of course, reduced traffic because of the pandemic beyond meat stocks more than doubled this year Walmart shares basically flat today. After the close Disney announced twenty-eight thousand layoffs. Most of them part timers at their parks virus, you know the drill. Listening to marketplace. This marketplace podcast is supported by Deloitte private. When economists talk recovery, they often talk of V. W or you shapes at Deloitte private. The talk is of privately held companies because no matter how recovery unfolds history shows that private companies will play a leading role in shaping it to help to late offers a collection of articles and insights, resilient leadership and a host of issues and opportunities. Private companies face today, see and subscribe. At Deloitte. Dot Com slash US slash covid. This marketplace podcast is supported by we work as a business you know today takes new ways of working it takes new measures toward health and safety flexible terms for where when and how you work spaces designed with your purpose in mind it takes innovation of a we work office to take your business where you want it to be visit we dot slash future to learn more. This is marketplace I'm Kai Ryssdal colleges are in session millions of students are in class. But Not really in class right? A lot of schools have decided the coronavirus presents too much of a risk to the students themselves to faculty and staff the community nearby and the communities that schools that have the send students back to you if they would have to shutdown again, which has happened. Thing is though some versions of in-person college are happening How here's Marketplace's Mitchell Hartman? Colleges and universities have a huge financial incentive to get and keep students on campus. Especially, private schools says Emily Wani. Higher Education for Fitch Ratings about eighty percent of the revenue comes from tuition and student fees like dorm dining parking, those sorts of things she sees trouble. Ahead, we do expect to see more closures as the fall season transitions into flu season and what hope to see really as immorally approach than what we saw in the spring so far this semester though higher Ed's approach to. The pandemic has been anything but orderly, it is a bit of the wild west out there Robert Franek is editor in chief for the Princeton Review. There is no universal protocol about testing schools that are opening up well intentioned as that is and then having to dramatically clothes were changed. Policy is a huge financial burden on the school end crushing for students we don't have A. Great System in place to look at how universities and schools are doing in terms of controlling Koga. That's University of Minnesota. Public Health. Professor Kumi. Smith she says mandatory mask-wearing and social distancing can prevent cova spread but she says on college campuses. Some of those guidelines are just impossible to enforce or not practical. Smith says, classes, dorms, dining halls, athletics, dance, and theatre the whole college. Experience is by nature communal expecting students not to hang out, go to parties get close to each other is unrealistic. It does seem cruel to shut down schools are to force kids to keep learning at home. But how much can we plead with individuals to please behave in a way that's really unnatural and that goes against everything that we've signaled about what college it'd be like. Taller. One school trying to make it work is Wesleyan University with twenty five, hundred students in Middletown Connecticut. Sophomore Cat Grece flew back to Wesleyan from Portland Oregon. She says despite the risk of getting cove or being sent home again like she was last spring, you're going to a classroom and sitting down and having the professor actually be there in person is so nice griller says the rules are clear where a mask social distance visitors on campus. The school even provided an instructional video during orientation offering tips for dating without touching. Range from like listening to a podcast and drinking tea, and then talking about it too and I'm quoting good old fashioned funds. Ex Grayish has been reporting for the student newspaper uncovered compliance people generally being pretty good. But the things that I have definitely heard rumblings with people having parties and stuff like that students are wearing masks all the time on campus at least all the time. Haram Wesleyan President Michael Roth says the schools had about ten positive tests since late August and testing is rigorous twice a week for all students and employees it's expensive but you do have to test systematically and you have to have the capacity for isolating students in a way that is in punitive. So they'll do it and you can break the chain of. Transmission otherwise you're just depending on luck student cat. Grayish knows whether this works is mostly up to her peers I. think there was a big sense like either Wesleyan. We'll get this right I mean we'll stay here or it just completely gonNa fall apart right away and there's still a long way to go in this fall semester I'm Hartman for marketplace. Concur. So Mitchell was talking mostly about undergraduates how the pandemic is changing that experience postgraduate education in this coronavirus economy though is no picnic either dozens of PhD programs across the country are saying they are not going to be admitting any new students for the next academic year that is the one that starts in twenty twenty one. As marketplace's Erica reports. It is a temporary pause that could have some long term effects colleges, and universities have a lot of additional costs, these days, personal protective equipment, remote learning, infrastructure, covid, nineteen tests, and with fewer students on campus they have less money coming in. So says Carla Hickman with ABC and Education Consulting Company schools are making sure they can fill their commitment financially you have already matriculated one way they can do that is by not admitting new students Princeton sociologist. Dalton Conley says that's the decision his department made in regards to PhD students made more sense to suspend emissions. For one year and have those resources then to be killed by thousand little cuts but students from poor backgrounds may not be able to wait for schools to restart admissions. So they'll pursue other careers Suzanne Ortega with the Council of graduate, school says, that's bad for diversity were disrupting the flow from more diverse undergraduate student pipeline to a less diverse graduate student pipeline. Even undergraduates are likely to feel the effect says, Gwen, told the National Association of graduate, professional students especially at big state universities where the graduate students do the majority or close to the majority of the instruction of the UNDERGRADS. This might make it very challenging to continue to provide the same quality of education, but pause could also give graduate programs time to change. Princeton Sociologist Dalton Conley says with field research suspended we have to rethink we have to develop courses and curriculum in, for example, virtual ethnography, and that to take resources American for marketplace. took. So here's an interesting tidbit in the higher feeling about this economy category. Spoiler alert pretty good. It turns out the Conference Board reported this morning consumer confidence in September as high as it's been since the pandemic started also the jump in confidence from. September the shop in seventeen years, chuck it up to that. Slowly declining unemployment rate, we will get the September jobs report Friday morning by the way. We though have been checking in with some consumers also regular listeners to this program about what they have been consuming lately and it seems. Sometimes spending a little money. Can bring a little bit of joy. This is Kelly Kaletsky in Columbus Ohio, I wasn't quite ready to fly yet but I felt like a really needed to fly home to check on my mom who's eighty nine years old in when I'm home I always try and get my mom to maybe spend a little money on some new things but she was raised during the depression and she won't spend money on anything except for groceries and she only as those when she has coupon. But this afternoon we were looking through old dog-eared cookbook and she said, you know your father gave this to me about a month after we were married in nineteen, fifty four. So I think she's motivated by not wanting to spend on and what she feels is necessary but there's also a lot of value in the memories associated with a lot of the things that she has. Hi, this is esther from Chicago. Not, a lot of new things, but what I did do recently was. Invest in some. High end a French cookware, the enamel type that I usually would not buy because for the most part it's just way too expensive. Now I don't know if it's on sale. At fifty percent because. The businesses, WANNA get rid of it before a possible future bankruptcy. Or not I mean that's that's how I see it Most been buying some use camera gear. Never goes bad. Hi, this is Ellen. Murphy. From Mission Hills Kansas and my coronavirus shopping stories have gone from being masked up in gloved up to. Just. Eyes glaze over walking through the store picking up like things off of a very strictly written list. So I was pleasantly surprised last week when I found a stash of tree ripened peaches. and. I can tell you that there is nothing like a fresh late. Late Summer Peach. When you slice into it in the morning and sit down to eat it no matter what is coming across on the radio? It almost doesn't matter. Hey. Now, we're sitting right here listening De L. and that was Ellen Murphy in Mission Hills Kansas though summer peaches are nest Oh from Chicago Kelly Kaletsky in Columbus Ohio. This final note on the way out today. CNN. Ended the number crunching on this breakdown of exactly where the seven hundred and fifty dollars in taxes income taxes. That is the New York Times reports president trump paid in each of the first two years of his presidency went the Congressional Budget Office actually tells you what dollar percentage breakdown is. So of the seven hundred, Fifty Bucks President Trump contributed one, hundred, eighty, one dollars eighty, seven cents for defense spending. The seventy two dollars and forty four cents for veterans benefits in Military Pensions Medicaid healthcare for the poor and disabled got one, hundred, fifteen dollars sixty cents I could go on the data does but here's the last one will pick Mr Trump's annual contribution to paying interest on the national debt, which now stands north of twenty six trillion dollars was eighty one dollars and seven cents. All right we are going but not without your Tuesday moment of economic context, it's a quickie and a little bit of a Downer. John Williams the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York gave speech today lots of inflation stuff. Also, interest rates stuff those are related by the way. Here is the kicker though. Williams said he figures the economy is going to be back close to where it was this past January in about and this is a quote. In three years. Time. Three. Years. Digital on demand team includes Kerry Barber. Smithfield Ben Heck Haute Sarah Menendez Mills. Janet wins to turn you have is, is our executive director of on-demand? I'm Kai Ryssdal we will see tomorrow everybody. All Maryland Hoffman once right now is able to stay in her home. and. So then what are you going to do if you can't come up with the money I? Don't know I honestly don't I don't have choices. I doubt. What happens when you've lost your job because of the pandemic and you can't make rent but protections do you have right now from being evicted? I'm Eddie Murphy's host of this is uncomfortable in this week on the PODCAST, we share one woman story of trying to stay right where she is episode drops Thursday, you can listen to wherever your podcasts.

United States Ecuador Amtrak Los Angeles Christina Stumble Kai Ryssdal Mitchell Hartman Berliner Deloitte Justin Ho Georgia Tech Scheller College Wesleyan Walmart Joe Biden Congress Kelly Kaletsky president WanNa Bdo
The other "Dreamers"

Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal

27:16 min | 2 years ago

The other "Dreamers"

"This marketplace podcast is brought to you by ultimate software dedicated to putting people first with innovative solutions for HR payroll and talent management. Learn more at ultimate software dot com. Ultimate software people first. I saw this on Twitter today. I don't remember where but it is kind of apt NASA has kept its Rover going on Mars longer than Airbus is going to be making that double decker a three eighty from American public media. This is marketplace. In Los Angeles. I'm KAI Ryssdal. It is Wednesday today. The thirteenth of February has always to have long everybody. It is already tomorrow in Beijing. Which is where Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin finds himself, and where he and the US trade delegation are set to pick up negotiations over tariffs and intellectual property enforce technology transfer on Thursday wherever you are remember March the first is the deadline the bosses set for the next steps in the trade war elevated tariffs on more goods is what the president has said. So with that in your back pocket consider this any day. Now, the White House is expected to formally ban. The Chinese tech giant's hallway and Z T E from having anything to do with next generation wireless networks being built in this country. Five G is the nomenclature now, remember Washington has pushed for while ways. CFO to be extradited from Canada, and it has charged the company was stealing technology from T mobile. So again with trade talks as the backdrop marketplace's got tongue explains. The administration's five G strategy. A ban would keep out hardware from firms deem national security risks, that's code. For awhile weigh ins, e t the fear is that tomorrow's fifth generation wireless five G, which will link our buildings power plants cars and homes would also make them Hackel Roberts Strayer. The State Department's top cyber official spoke in DC last week. We have significant concerns with countries that have such a close relationship between their intelligence community and bear benders Chinese law compels their companies to participate in intelligence activities. He said the US is making a deliberate push to get allies to follow especially in Europe, Germany in the UK are considering it and in Barcelona the mobile industry holds its big annual meeting in two weeks. Charles Clancy worked on cybersecurity at the national security agency government intends to use mobile world, congress as a venue for engaging. It's allies to essentially. Offset while ways rise to prominence industry will hold its own emergency meetings. And while you at the conference the thing is why is a low cost and proven titan in the business says paltry solo at the Eurasia group industry is acting show us proof of why should industry be concerned about this because within industry Walli is viewed as a trusted supplier globally in one hundred seventy some countries today's global supply chain could rip apart if a digital iron curtain goes up separating countries with year from those without it. I'm Scott Tong for marketplace. The original riveted denim blue Jean is headed back to the stock market Levi, Strauss and company filed paperwork today to go public the second IPO in the one hundred and forty five years leave is has been around nineteen seventy-one. In case, you're curious was the first one the Denham craze was remaking fashion. But fourteen years later, the company was taken private again by Levi Strauss is descendants. So marketplace's Renata sago explains why. Why Levi's wants to go public again? This Levi's ad from 2017 features people dancing in Denham. I'm talking high kicks and a field in Africa and shimmy at some club in the US. And at the in three words appear live in Levi's. That's exactly why the companies going public now marshal Cohen is a retail analyst at NPD. He says Levi's wants all those consumers who've been wooed away from Denham by comfy at leisurewear to live in Levi's and leave is only going to require a greater level of research and development introductions into new fabrics. And even some experimental maybe retail stores, and that's going to require more money, which selling shares would generate the company earned five point five billion dollars in revenue last year up from the year before despite depending on struggling brick and mortar retailers, Matt Kennedy and strategist with Renaissance Capital says that'll be attractive to investors. They have made some very impressive gains. And I think that's what investors are looking at to see a company like this can actually grow despite that environment. Like a lot of tech firms the company intends to keep a separate category of shares for its current owners. They will keep control David Silverman is with Fitch Ratings. He says the challenge is going to be changing company culture. I don't know that we would say that Levi would expect to operate any differently. As a publicly traded entity that a private entity Levi's is listed that it hopes to raise one hundred million dollars. But the actual number could be much higher iron out of say go for marketplace. A word on inflation in this economy. On course, would be that word two words, I suppose one I guess if you hyphenated from the Labor Department this morning came news that core inflation that is minus food and energy was up two point two percent last month from a year earlier that is Joe us about where Jay Powell and the gang at the fed wanted coming up tomorrow on the marketplace morning report, what do you suppose it takes to make the ski industry? Get political climate change is what it takes. They'll tell you about that tomorrow on the morning show on Wall Street today, pretty good. We'll have the details when we do the numbers. Back on Monday. It was bowing taking up the aerospace slot on this program. CEO Dennis Muilenburg, and I had a chat today's muhlenberg main really his only competition in the global big commercial airliner market Airbus that is getting airtime. The company reports earnings tomorrow, and it is under pressure to address falling demand for its Jain or miss a three eighty the big double decker one expectations are actually that the world's biggest passenger plane is going to be killed off. The thing only started flying commercially in two thousand seven a relative blink of an eye in the airliner world. So from the sustainability desk, marketplace's Jack Stewart explains why the three eighty is on its last wings already the Abbas a three eighty is a beautiful feat of engineering says John Horrex at the center for aviation studies at Ohio State University. It's wingspan and length twice that of the more typical eighth three twenty. Oh, going seven thirty-seven that you see US apple it's but like many many things that are beautiful. Title or two which are hearts get attached. The market moves in a different direction. That market is the likes of British Airways Lufthansa, and the largest customer Baifa Dubai's Emirates it operates over one hundred of the super jumbos, but it's reviewing its order. Fifty three more bijon Vescio at Embry riddle Aaron article university says although the seven forty seven jumbo jets made big I look better in the seventies and eighties. The trend is now towards smaller planes for air on filling up six hundred passengers is much more difficult than filling up for example, elba's eight hundred fifty three hundred passengers therefore gay take more risk small planes like Boeing's new fuel efficient seven eighty-seven also give aligns more options on routes Abbas didn't comment, but in a marketplace interview earlier this week Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg said it just highlights the gamble plane. Bill does have to take we can ever make short-term motivated decisions where really. We have to have this long-term strategic view invest for the future. It is a big stakes game even if Abbas stops production. The eighth AT is so new and fleets. It will still be flying for awhile. I'm Jack Jewett for marketplace. We've got the whole interview I did with Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg last week in Chicago on our corner office podcast. We're not trying to guess one way or the other whether the president's going to sign the deal Congress's worked out to not shut down the government. Again. It is worth a mention of something that is not in the rumored deal any protection for dreamers people as your member brought in the United States by their parents when they were kids without documentation, but who have become culturally and economically American. There is a flip side to that to kids born in the United States who are the citizens for an undocumented parents, and those parents have to go back home voluntarily or not we're talking Mexico here in particular book. Jarvis is a contributing writer for the California Sunday magazine, she went to Mexico and talked to some of those kids hybrid. Hi, thanks for having me. Do me a favor, would you? And let's start with actually Mantilla one of the one of the students. You talked to tell me about her. So actually is a girl who was born and grew up in South Carolina near Greenville. And when she was about. Nine years old the state of South Carolina past what was then called a show me your papers law what what was referred to that way. That basically turned, you know, routine traffic stops and immigration checkpoints and Ashley's. Parents saw the writing on the wall. The they also had been interested in returning to Mexico where they were from. But it had never felt like a real possibility to actually or her siblings. But actually in particular had refused to learn Spanish when her mother tried to teach her because she said, you know, I'm American why am I going to need that social lands in Mexico? They go out bus rods away from Mexico City. You say to where the parents are from and she's plunked down in the Mexican school system. Not speaking Spanish rate, which was a really hard transition for anybody actually in particular found it hard because she was so used to being successful in school in that was a big part of her identity. And then all of a sudden, the teachers sees her as stupid and has not trying hard. Enough. And that's something that from educational researchers. I spoke to is fairly common. Teachers may not know that they don't speak Spanish because they have conversational Spanish. But they don't read it. They don't write it. They're not ready to learn in it. And so it's very common that researchers will go to schools and say, do you have any American students here and schools often will say, actually, we don't we don't have any students like that. And then when they look harder they may realize they have dozens of students like that. And in fact, there are as you saying this piece best guesses are there are six hundred thousand American born which is to say American citizen children in the Mexican school system. And that's an estimate. I mean, there are children who are missed because they don't end up re-enrolled in school because of the people work documentation difficulties. But that number represents something like three percent of the students in Mexican public schools. So play this out for me as you do in your piece these. People are American citizens. They have the right whenever they choose to come back here and work. So they could go through the Mexican school system and come and move to demoain, but they would do so without any of the cultural grounding that they would otherwise have they will miss a have missed out on the kind of education. They would have gotten in America, something that can happen with these kids, even though they have that. Right. They may not know it, and they may not believe it, and the the idea of coming back, and of, you know, paying for college or finding a job can feel incredibly daunting in in some cases, you know, I met some children who you know, they were worried that they might do something to lose their citizenship or that they would get in trouble. If they did try to reenter the United States. Even though they're American citizens. There's another kid in this piece. And I'm sorry I chuckle, but it's a great little though, Leo who is came was was brought back to Mexico. By his parents when he was like six he's fifteen now. And he thinks he's an American because he eats pizza, but his mom's like, no man, you've got an American passport. Yeah. Leo's is a great kid very vocal and thoughtful about what the cultural differences are that that makes them one American or or Mexican does. He think he's going to go back to the state come back to the states. I guess his mom really thinks that he'll come back to the states, which is something that you know, when she talks about it. She cries, it makes her sad to imagine. But she also is said to imagine that he would have his opportunities cutoff by not coming back. You know, an example about lay, oh, he he loves math. He wants to have a career in robotics. But at the school where he goes he's been put in the agricultural program where you learned to be a small-scale farmer of things like avocados and peaches that grow in this region. This is a this is a a very cold way to think about this. But this is a workforce that could be useful to American companies. Yes. And if you think about the, you know, the fact that the US is already invested in their education before they left, but then. In a way doesn't follow up on that investment? And then another economic way to look at it is, you know, I societies to function you need an educated workforce. And also people who haven't experienced a lot of trauma and dislocation that you know, that all will have an effect on what kids are able to do when they grow up. So we started with Ashley let's finish with Ashley Ashley shoes, fifteen ish or something. Now what you can do when it's time for colleges you're gonna come back here. She can stay there. What you're gonna do. You know, she still doesn't know something that I sort of noticed is that they love the idea of coming back until it gets closer. And then it feels much much scarier and more daunting. You know, in some cases, they have other family members here that they could live with their that could support them in another cases, they don't. It's kind of a fascinating piece in the California Sunday magazine by Jarvis. It's called the deported Americans, pork, thanks a lot. I really appreciate you. Thanks for having me. We've got some pictures of Ashley and Leo kids from books piece on our Instagram. We are at marketplace APN. Coming up, you may be going into work everyday and wearing a wire and recording your colleagues. Okay. But first students. One hundred seventeen today four tenths percent twenty-five thousand five forty three the NASDAQ up five points less than a tenth percent seventy four twenty s and p five hundred advanced eight points three tenths percent twenty seven and fifty three. There was news. We were telling you about about Levi Strauss getting back into the public stock market. So here's some other companies in the genes business American Eagle outfitters. Sagged one point four percent gap down a tenth of one percent bond. Prices fell yield on the ten year treasury note rose to two point seven zero percent. And you're listening to marketplace podcast is brought to you by the university of Florida Warrington college of business transform your future with an MBA from one of America's top ten universities. The UF MBA offers full-time professional and online programs for an educational experience tailored to your schedule and career goals. Learn more at Warrington dot ufl dot EDU slash MBA. This marketplace podcast is brought to you by WordPress. What would you do if you could do anything professional pet photographer, custom Vern? Richer maker now you can build a website that can turn your dreams into a reality with WordPress dot com, where it press dot com was started so anyone can publish their ideas with powerful site. Building tools thousands of themes and twenty four seven support from real experts. Wordpress dot com lets you pursue whatever it is. You love by launching a site that's free to start and it's built to grow with, you know, two week trials, no hidden fees, and you'll own your content, forever, WordPress presses customer support team is made of actual WordPress. Experts who are standing by to help you twenty four hours a day, including weekends, though, WordPress platform is so flexible and powerful that some of the biggest companies on earth use it to build their websites and millions of people use WordPress dot com everyday to turn their dreams into reality. Go to WordPress dot com slash APM. For fifteen percent off any new plan purchase. That's WordPress dot com slash APM. This is marketplace, I'm KAI Ryssdal. You got investment wise, your stocks and your bonds, you got your commodities and your precious metals. You got your jewelry in her classic cars. You got your beanie babies too. They were a bubble back in the nineties that last one certainly is among the more alternative things in which people choose to invest hobby investing sometimes called a way for people to put a little cash in something that brings him a little bit of joy. But just because it's a hobby does not mean it is immune to the economic tides. Marketplace's Justin ho has that one. It's Friday night at a game store in New York called the Brooklyn strategists people. Here are clustered around tables playing a fantasy card game called magic the gathering. You play as wizards who are trying to overwhelm your opponent with beasts that you can summon and every cardinal deck represents spells in your library. That's Christine karma who runs the stores magic the gathering events. It's a bit of an after school crowd at the moment. Some adult players trickling in carmax says there's more to the game than just playing it people will make trades to get cards. They want to try to get more valuable cards because it's just another way of enjoying the game. It's also a way to make money games. Been around for twenty five years in some rare and powerful cards are now are thousands one card from the original release the black Lotus sold for eighty seven thousand dollars last year. So it's like, quiet speculation dot com. Let players trade cards and track prices. Mt. Stocks dot com. Even as a rolling ticker for the cards people have grouped some of the cards that are really popular to invest in in almost track those against an S and P five hundred index fund that Seth Robertson a magic card investor in Jackson, Wyoming, a couple months back. He says prices on a lot of cards started to drop at about the same time that stock markets got pretty volatile the two could have been unrelated. But Robertson says he wasn't surprised personally. He felt nervous buying magic cards after looking at his sinking 4._0._1._K, you know, it made me kind of take a step back and think okay, I need to start put more money into it. Maybe I should stop spending as much eating out and play magic and go into you know, concerts, or whatever in an uncertain economy or consumer confidence is falling. Hobby. Investors are seeing weakness Mike Krause is an artist in Rochester, New York. He paints a lot of landscapes any us. Oh buys and sells work by other artists. Lately. He says he seen art buyers hesitate, especially when they've heard news about the trade war. With China or the recent government shutdown? I might have a buyer that will come up to me and say, I'm really interested in purchasing are, but let's just wait and see what's going to happen. I in fact, he says he'll notice economic trends show up in the art market before they show up in other indicators if I have higher sales in January and February I'll start noticing that stock market picks off the job reports are picking up. So it indicates that things are going into direction before they actually happen. Some economic trends can push people into hobby. Investing people like Tim McLaren who started buying up bottles of wine in two thousand four specifically bottles of expensive for DOE. He was betting that in improving Chinese economy would make those wines more valuable. He's now invested half a million dollars into wine. That's ten percent of his per folio it done incredibly well from two thousand five to two thousand eight took a downturn. But it it's come back strong. He tracks prices through an online exchange called bbx in. Lately, he says prices have softened China's economy is slowing down. And there's an even bigger factor. Scaring buyers Brexit. My winds are all in London. There's Mark risk. They're the UK is one of the world's biggest wine markets and given that tariffs on wine could go up. Mclaren says the market has gotten uncertain still he thinks wine investments will do well in the long run. That's the whole reason I investment line is I wanna resell it somebody's gonna drink it. And then hopefully, my other wine investments do better because there's more scarcity, and we are talking about hobbies here. If the investments go south, you could play magic the gathering. You could admire your art, you could drink that expensive or doubt in New York in Justin ho marketplace. When you hear about whistle blowing. It's usually pretty high profile deal. Right. That's why you're hearing about it. Geoffrey y Gan the guy who went public about what big tobacco new and when it knew it about. Cigarettes comes to mind fact, is though whistle is a whole lot more common than just the ones we hear about it. Also comes with some costs for the whistle blow for Sheila Kolhatkar from the New Yorker magazine has written a long article laying out some of those costs in a very specific Atia. It's going to have you on. It's good to be here KAI solicit the legalese out of the way, I hear talk to me about the process by which some of these whistle blower cases, get filed it's called key, Tom, it's a complicated process. And sometimes it takes years, but essentially key Tom is a is a legislation that is intended to encourage people who see wrongdoing particularly defrauding of government programs to come forward and report the fraud. So essentially if you were working at a company, and you believe that they are doing something wrong. They're bending the rules. You would need to kind of. Find yourself a lawyer and together you will sort of investigate and gather evidence and file a complaint with the Justice department. And the Justice department is obligated to investigate in at least aspertain whether you're claims have some validity. And once they do that for a while, they may decide to join the case, and that's a really big moment in that basically means that the US government. The Justice department will become the lead plaintiff in the case. And that gets us because it all hinges on credibility of the witness read credibility of the of the whistle blower. It gets us to the to the protagonist of your article guy by the name of Darren Soto tells who he was he began his career as an emergency room doctor. He took a job at a company called freedom health, which was administering a special kind of Medicare program called Medicare Advantage and DARREN'S job was to help oversee this program and help manage the billing of the program, and he had a very high level level of responsibility in the company which allowed him to see a lot. Of what was going on? There. The crux of this piece is is the the saga of Darren Sewell, and and this investigation, and and how lonely it is to be pursuing one of these whistle blower investigations. He was eventually wearing a wire he was isolated in a lotta ways. It was really hard. Yes. These whistle blowers. Really go through the ringer. It is extremely arduous and difficult. There's a sort of perception out there, especially I think in the corporate world that whistle blowers are motivated by money or that they're even retaliating against the company. But for the most part a lot of them are just idealistic, and they're really upset by the fraud that they see and they want to do the right thing. But of course, you have to agree to keep the case under seal, you cannot talk about it with anyone other than your attorneys and your spouse if you have one and other than that, you were going through this incredibly stressful process. You may be going into work everyday and wearing a wire and recording your colleagues, you know, worrying about your job and your future not knowing what's going to happen. And you have to just do all of that alone and not really share that burden with anyone. I don't wanna spoil the ending of this. Because it's a it's a really good read. So so let me not ask about this specific case. But the key Tom process in general is it doing based on your reporting what it was supposed to do which is encourage sunshine again into some of these bad axe experts. I spoke to about this said, yes, having a system to incentivize whistleblowers definitely helps the government catch a fraud and abuse of its programs. The numbers are quite mind boggling, I mean in two thousand seventeen the government recovered two point six billion dollars in healthcare fraud, judgments and settlements and two hundred sixty two million of that was awarded to whistleblowers because they are entitled to a portion of the awards. And I think it's really difficult. If you do not have someone on the inside who can really provide evidence and explain because this is so complicated. Some of these frauds that it makes it really difficult for the government to catch up unless you have somebody number one taking the risk, but also paying the personal cost. Yes. And in many cases, eventually the whistle blowers. Name becomes public the employer finds out and in Dr Seuss case. And in many other cases, I learned about you know, they have trouble finding employment in some cases, they can never find another job in the same field. So I think this award program is partly intended to compensate them for their lost income, which you know, if they're if they're young that could span over decades Sheila Kaul hook door is a staff writer at the New Yorker, we have our on the air on Fridays every now and then to wrap things up for us any given week her piece in the New Yorker about about Dr Darren swollen and his whole saga. It's called the personal toll of whistleblowing Sheila. Thanks a lot. I appreciate your time. Thanks bye. This final note on the way out today deja-vu edition, the company that owns movie pass the shall we say challenged movie tickets absorption service said this week that it has been delisted from the NASDAQ why will in part because shares got a treat above a dollar to be listed on the NASDAQ at their last close on Tuesday. Shares of Helius and Matheson analytics nine tenths of a penny. You can still get it over the counter though. And we are at here. The Dow up one hundred seventeen points today four tenths percent. Nasdaq up five points less than a tenth percent S and P five hundred up eight about three tenths percent. There are media production. Team includes Sarah gear, Jake Gorski, drew just at jeffpeters, Dan Powell, Daniel Ramirez, Charlton Thorpe, and Ben tolliday. I'm KAI Ryssdal. We will see tomorrow. This is APN.

US Levi Mexico KAI Ryssdal Ashley Ashley Levi Strauss fraud Airbus CEO Dennis Muilenburg congress South Carolina UK Tom Leo president Twitter Beijing Los Angeles
What you need to know from the Big Tech hearing

Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal

26:20 min | 1 year ago

What you need to know from the Big Tech hearing

"Don't take it from me take it from this guy were in this. until until were well through it the Federal Reserve and this economy from American public media. This is marketplace. In. Los Angeles. I'm Kai Ryssdal Wednesday Day the twenty ninth of July. Good as always to have long everybody the Fed wrapped up its regular two day meeting on interest rates today no changes in the cost of money as we knew, there would not be. But Cheer Powell did a whole lot of good context on where in his mind things go from here number one, and obviously it looks like the data pointing to a slowing in the pace of the recovery but I want to stress. It's it's too early to say both how large that is and how sustained it will be. We just don't know yet because we have to wait for to see the you know the actual data on spending an employment come in and but this, this is what we're seeing. and. They are seeing it 'cause the path of the economy is going to depend to a very high extent on the course of the virus on the measures that we take to keep it in check. That is just a very fundamental fact about our economy right now. The two things are not in conflict. You know social distancing measures and fast reopening of the economy that actually go together they're not in competition with each other so that much we all kind of new right the viruses, the economy, the economy is the virus here though is the Fed share on one of the big macroeconomic questions out there right now. Fundamentally this is a disinflationary shock. I know there. There is a lot of discussion about how this might lead to inflation over time but. You know we're we're seeing disinflationary pressures around the world going into this. Now, we see a big shock to demand and we see court inflation dropping to one percent. And I do think for quite some time we're going to be struggling against disinflationary pressure rather than against if Latian refreshes remember disinflation is not deflation we've been over that. We'll get back to it if we need to I suppose and then finally. This which isn't really all that reassuring though he was trying to be there's probably going to be a long tail where a large number of people are struggling to get back to work because those heavily affected areas of the economy or going to be challenged really to employ. The millions of people who are now out of work I think fourteen million people. are now out of work who will work in February, something like that. So that's going to take awhile. I think in in everyone's reckoning and I just everyone should know that we're going to be there. For for all of that. So that's what he was talking about up top right. We are here until we are well through and he was talking about the Fed Congress meanwhile still trying to figure out how to start figuring out how to negotiates on their next rescue package Fed Chair J. Paul, the guy along with virus I guess running this economy. Of course, it is not just inflation and interest rates that the Fed is worried about early on in this pandemic back in April, the fence set up kind of a lifeline for state and local governments. It's called jargon alert apologies, the municipal liquidity facility and by and large states are in need of some liquidity because tax revenue is down spending up and red ink is everywhere marketplace. Justin who has more now on the financial challenges that states are up against. State budget shortfalls are already having serious consequences says, Nick Johnson who follows state fiscal policy at the center on budget and policy priorities in April and may alone states localities have either furloughed or laid off one point five million workers about twice as many in the aftermath of the great recession state's got a round of funding from the federal government in March. But that money is already been budgeted Tracy Gordon at the urban brookings. Text. Policy Center says states are using it to disinfect public spaces may correctional facilities safer transition to online learning. You know it's unclear that the amount that was appropriated in March where we didn't realize how long this crisis would endure is sufficient to those kinds of challenges without more federal aid. States don't have many options. They could borrow more from the feds municipal equity facility but abby Earth's at fhm financial says, many states are required to balance their budgets every year. So it's really uncomfortable for them to go out into the markets to tap you know if ED facility or other loans to borrow for cash flow giving states money is the most. Effective way for the federal government to shore up the safety net says Tracy Gordon the tax policy. Center, thinking as we recognize your better providing these services because you know your populations, you know your your geographies Gordon says state and local governments represent around twelve percent of the country's GDP helping them helps the rest of the economy to I'm Justin Ho for marketplace. Wall. Street on this fed day generally up despite Mr Pals cautious words we'll have the details when we do the numbers. House press conference was not the only big show in Washington today elsewhere in American capitalism Google CEO Sundar Pichai facebook's Mark Zuckerberg Apple CEO Tim Cook, and in his very first congressional appearance. Amazon's Jeff, bezos appeared before a house antitrust subcommittee virtual hearing for a session that was nominally about antitrust and anti-competitive behaviour but really. It on everything from censorship politics, digital advertising, and to some conceivably actual anti-competitive practices as well. Molly would is the host of marketplace decks. She is, of course, our Goto for this kind of stuff him on. Hake. So look right off the Bat I. Do have to ask you about the selection of these companies. Yes. They are the big four, but they are so different in what they do Why do you suppose they got him up there together other than the star value I suppose is the question. I mean I did wonder if it was for the ratings because it is really you know we tend to say big tech. But the only thing that these companies have in common at their core is big. You have you know business models ranging from online retail and cloud services to digital advertising to social media to consumer electronics, and while there is some overlap it, you can see that while there were lots of reasons for the chaos that sometimes made its way into these hearings today but one of the reasons for that chaos because when you're trying to get at the business models and the specific actions taken by each company. You have a lot of ground to cover. Yeah why? Now on these hearings? What was the end game here? Do you think Congress? Well I think that it's possible. This is related to we've seen actually a ramping up the states and state attorneys general filing various antitrust lawsuits we've seen the California. Privacy Act. Recently go into a fact which really takes aims amid some of these companies. Europe has been ramping up a trust efforts and the FTC the federal. Trade Commission has been saying that it intends to wrap up its own investigations into these companies by the end of the potentially. Now, all of this is now on Kovic timeline. So it's unclear whether that's still completely on track but I think there's a sense that this was already moving forward. And people didn't want to let it fall by the wayside. Do do you get a sense though that the Europeans who have been the lead on this right on the anticompetitive practices in the penalties and sanctions for? Do you suppose they watch this hearing because of course they did and said, yes now the Americans have finally on board, we're going to get something done. Oh That is charming Yeah. No I think. What was so fascinating about this hearing really is that you know there's American antitrust law, right, which says if you as a company engage in monopolistic behavior, anticompetitive behavior that resulted in a harm to consumers usually identified as higher prices that then you are engaging in what can reliably be called antitrust and you can be prosecuted in some way for that. Then there's the question of how big these companies are, how much power they have, how much they have an impact over speech and information, which came up a lot in these hearings and those are different. Right they're still reasonable questions in some senses in some cases to be asked, but they don't classically fit into what we think of an antitrust law and teasing the those two things apart is the only way we're going to make progress and no progress on that front happened today. Fair enough super super quick talking fifteen seconds because I'm already overtime. I have made fun of Congress for not knowing what questions to ask famously Orrin Hatch asking Zuckerberg how he makes money and Zach approaching senator. WE SELL ADS is Congress getting better at asking questions of these companies. Definitely not every member of Congress but definitely, I think there was little tolerance for spend today. Fair enough molly would those marketplace tech also with me a podcast that we do called Martin. Thanks. Thanks K. Breaking news now about black Friday everybody yes black Friday the day after Thanksgiving still something like one hundred, twenty days away. But retailers are making decisions. Now on this stuff some of the big ones Walmart target and best buy among them say they won't jumpstart the official big shopping day that Friday by opening stores on actual thanksgiving. Thursday. So what does that mean for what still ranks as the biggest shopping weekend of the year marketplace's Kristen Schwab is on that one There thanksgiving traditions, and then there are Thanksgiving traditions like camping out in front of big box stores waiting hours for the doors to open then chaos. That's a video taken at Walmart. Last year people actually look like they're having fun grinning as they wrestle over big screen TV's but that was last year when all is said and done creating crowds in the age of covid nineteen is a really bad idea. Mark Cohen Directs the Retail Studies Program at Columbia Business School. He's closing isn't easy way for stores to give employees the day off and there's not much to lose store traffic on Thanksgiving is just a small part of black Friday weekend and with holiday sales starting earlier and earlier. Each year it's kind of a ritual that doesn't have as much economic value as it once had plus the pandemic has already pushed retailers into offering deep discounts. Still Suture Rita Foley at Forrester says rituals are important. It is a day that is very ceremonial that marks the beginning of the holiday season psychologically for a lot of people and more of them have already been working it online because of deeper discounts, better financing and free shipping. Last year ten, million more people shopped online on Black Friday than stores according to the National Retail Federation. But what about cancelling black Friday altogether KC doesn't think we're there yet. The challenge is that you know some of the largest retailers particularly in the apparel space, the department store space down. So terribly they need you for an even in pandemic stores like target and Walmart can't afford to take the weekend off I'm Kristen Schwab marketplace. Coming up. Numbers don't add up. Speaking of the numbers. Doom about that. Though is up one hundred, sixty points today six tenths percent closed at twenty, six, thousand, five, thirty, nine, the Nasdaq climbed one, hundred, forty points about one point, three, percent, ten, thousand, five, forty, two. P. Five hundred rose forty points four zero point one point two, percent, thirty, two and fifty eight members yesterday when the ones bankrupt Eastman Kodak's stock rose dramatically on news government loans something like three quarters, billion dollars companies dot continue to surge today over three hundred percent. The announcement is Chris was talking about this some big retailers like target and Walmart closing their doors on Thanksgiving Day helped push other chance to do the same. Dick's sporting goods up three point six percent today. Best buy also saw an almost one percent. Bond prices were up yield on the ten year treasury down again zero point five, seven percent rose near mark. This is marketplace I'm Kai Ryssdal. Another month is almost in the books and other thirty one days of life in this corona virus economy and economy that has changed the relationship, a lot of us have with our jobs and. How we are spending and saving our money. So another check in today with a couple people we've been talking pretty much to since all of this started about exactly that. My name is April Oliver. I'm from Bozeman Montana and I work as environmental scientist. My name is Marie embry is I live in Brooklyn New York, and I've been. In. The service industry in restaurants for the past like four years. So I graduated in December and I was able to start. At the end of April. I feel really lucky to have a job during a time when everyone is losing their job. My partner I just moved last week to immoral affordable apartment. And we're able to save a little bit of money. Well. We're not able to save that much money because my partner he actually has like quite a lot of student debt. I lost my job in March. and. I just found. Another job now working in a restaurant that is doing outdoor service and. take out. The first week was probably the worst week because it was still sort of like very fresh for me to sort of be interacting with. You know many people again. Social distancing at the lab because it were a very small company were able to keep our descents where everyone is wearing masks and we were actually wearing masks from the very beginning. So I felt really comfortable being around other people. I. Do rely mostly on tips. and. So it's really weird for me to be like, Hey, sorry like you. You can't talk to me unless you're wearing ask. If I'm expecting somebody to at least twenty percent. So enforcing has been like I. don't even try it. They think that the fact that my varies like Ma Week to week. Unlike unemployment which I knew exactly what he was getting every week. But I guess now it's like Oh should I spend fifty dollars on this thing? Maybe maybe you'll table that and see how my paycheck looks the next two weeks. That was April Oliver in Bozeman Montana Maria is in Brooklyn. You can find the last couple of conversations we've had with them at our website marketplace dot org at your student. Would you tell us about your personal? There's organized labor news to pass on that is fit to print. So to speak California home, childcare workers voted to unionize on Monday. These are independent providers who worked mostly out of their own homes or in the homes of the families that they work for. They'll be able to collectively bargain with the state which pays in licenses. To provide subsidized care. For Low income communities. A handful of other states have seen something similar happened but California is by far the biggest as the country grapples with a childcare crisis during this pandemic. From the Workplace Culture Desk Marketplace's Megan McCarthy Carino has that one. Soya. Toma seeing only about a third of her usual business as a Los Angeles daycare provider and our expenses are going up for cleaning supplies, fficials, and masks from spending right now all these money in I'm not gonNA. See it because I don't know if they keep coming back on Toma hopes the union she fought for we'll be able to negotiate. More livable wages access to healthcare and paid sick leave which most workers like her don't have in the middle of a pandemic nobody's allowed to get sick share. It's it's it is a scary. It is scary. Childcare workers are among the lowest paid in the country in California. The majority are women of color and one quarter live in poverty. It's a workforce. That has received very little attention, very little financial resources UC Berkeley. child-care expert Leah Austin Survey Childcare providers and found a quarter had closed while many others remained open despite financial and health concerns. They have their own income. They are taking on personal credit card debt to cover their program expenses and one in five have Mr rent or mortgage payment not. Only, is the industry unsustainable for providers, but families as well says, Kristin. Rowe Finkbeiner at the advocacy group MOMS rising healthcare in most states already costs more than public college. She says, caretaking has been devalued not just for individuals, but our entire society the US is the only wealthy country without some kind of national childcare program I Megan. McCarthy Carino for marketplace. Okay School K through twelve. Yes. Districts are figuring that out. Colleges and universities are as well some going online only some going with some kind of hybrid but nothing that could remotely be called normal. So, if you're a college student or the parent of same, what are the economic calculations you're making about whether to go back or maybe take some time marketplace's Mitchell Hartman did some and around. When colleges shut down in March and sent students home to finish this semester online schools worried if their students would re enroll in the fall Sallie Mae, the giant private college lender surveyed families in the spring and what we found was there's really no gap year here Martha Holler at Sallie Mae says only two percent of students plan to take time off from their education. Overwhelming majority are planning on returning to their current school. Fitch Ratings has also found most students plan to continue college in the fall and want to be on campus analyst. Emily would Wani says, administrators are trying to calm families fears working with health professionals. They have planning teams in place protocols that will ideally keep the students and the staff and faculty safe as they can, and it's not like the choice to take time off would be an easy one says Beth acres at the Manhattan Institute being position of taking a gap year requires a lot of financial privilege. So a lot of students who are in college are older baby have children and they may be relying on financial aid to pay their household expenses. Many schools are still finalising their fall plans Robert Frantic at Princeton Review says the one hundred percent online model may be the right thing for some schools in the pandemic but students still want to be they used to face in class or some hybrid model, and he says some students are waiting to find out if they'll be on campus or home with their parents before they re enroll I'm Mitchell Hartman for marketplace. Theaters as live actors on the stage theaters in the UK are going to be able to reopen this coming weekend they'd been locked down since the middle of March. Live theater in Britain is culturally critical as it is everywhere and it's a big money maker over there as well three four million people in seats every year and many millions of dollars in related spending in bars and restaurants and hotels. From the European desk in London marketplace's Stephen. Beard has been following the fortunes of one small British theatre troupe. In the back garden of a small suburban house in the English Midlands at show-me Cook Professional Theater actor is at work. Not, rehearsing his next part in a clay practicing his clock saying. Curious of mimicking percussion instruments, cooks, Odi, source of revenue right now, he's giving online lessons. Thanks to the pandemic. All his acting work has evaporated. My whole job up to this point has been in the theater that kind of disappeared overnight and it really has had a massive impact financially unable to afford his flat in London anymore he moved in with his partners parents. He doesn't even have an audition to look forward to and is understandably downcast. It's very hard when he spent ten years of your life and a lot of blood sweat and tears getting yourself to position for that to dissipate very quickly. Tales of woe from the most precarious profession and nothing new. But what's for Cook is the before the lockdown his career was flourishing and so was the troop he worked with black-eyed theater is a small touring company that's been building audiences around the country for more than a decade over the past two years it's entertainment with a hundred thousand people with crowd pleasing classics like Shaq. So. The whole Damn Case Watson, the game. The company's founder Adrian McDougal says, the lockdown represents the ultimate conundrum for him and his actors it's it's it's basically stopped having come overnight. He's trying to revive some of that income by live streaming his latest production with Gothic Tale, of Dr Jekyll, and Mr Hyde. Any money from it will be tough. Britain's National Theatre has been streaming some of its classic. For free. Very difficult to then justify charging even five pounds for. For access to an online showed because people have been able to see the best of the best way. Name. Entry. This is a bit of a horror story for the black-eyed Company. Theaters will be allowed to reopen in August about says Luke, Barton one of the companies star actors the social distancing rules will cut their capacity to just twenty five percent. The numbers don't add up the margins don't add up, you need to sell around about sixty to eighty percent of venues. I think to make profits most theaters were expected to stay closed at least for the rest of the year Barton will survive financially because he has a backup jobs a part time teacher, but he fears that many workers backstage and front of House may drift away from the theater. It's one of the worrying things about this is actually. Who is left in our business who is still able to operate and work? It's wearing time. Britain's government is pumping some two billion dollars into the art industry to help it whether the coronavirus crisis. The fear is that small theatre groups like. May, be, overlooked. But as one of hundreds of theater companies in Britain, it's an ecosystem which live theater needs for its survival. In London I'm Stephen Beard for marketplace. This final note on the way out today for the beer experimenters among you Saturday is national mustard day it seems and so French's mustard people or expanding the brand. You could save French's mustard behavior a, and this is a quote from the press release a semi tart tropical wheat beer within some key lime lemon tangerine passion fruit to greet a tart refreshing match for the spice end zip of the mustard. All y'all tried Lemme nowadays. All right we are going but not without this follow-up economic context context context moment for you from the program yesterday. Remember I asked how many times you thought. Jay. Powell. Would use the word fiscal in his statement and announcement today everything fiscal policy is authorities. I. Had said eight. Would you come with? Fourteen was the actual number go figure. Armenia production team they're the ones in the studio. So we don't have to be Robin Edgar Drew Justed Jeff Peters Daniel Ramirez JC Bowl Charlton Thorpe Charlton Thorpe Ben Tolliday and Becca Lineman on Rozelle. We will see tomorrow. This is PM.

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Episode 12 - Part 1 - America's Powerful Underground Sex World

Mute Button Podcast

30:02 min | 1 year ago

Episode 12 - Part 1 - America's Powerful Underground Sex World

"Hello! This is Kelly Spears your host for the mute button. August. If you haven't heard about anchor, it's the easiest way to make a podcast is let me explain first, and foremost it is free. There's creation twos that allow you to record in. Edit your podcast. Right from your phone or computer into. That's not good enough. Anchor will distribute podcasts for you, so it can be heard on spotify apple podcast in others. and. You can make money from your podcast with no minimum listenership. It's everything that you need to make a podcast in one place. Download the free. ANCHOR TO ANCHOR DOT FM to get started today. Discretion known big this. Following. Contained languages. percent former presidents. Welcome back to the button podcast. This is your host Paly spears. As, you may recognize. This is an additional episode for the week. which is kind of odd, so you're getting a bonus when this weekend well lack. Let me just go ahead and say that. We are beginning a series That I think he will find a very interesting in. It's about America's powerful ground sex world. You know when we talk about. This particular topic We know that America has been in the front row has been of witness a high profile cases over the years. these cases involve the wealthy and elite almost always. Go silent as quickly as they made headline news. However in time, these individuals return to power in stardom with with very few remembering the names of their victims. President Bill Clinton or Kelly Harvey Weinstein Jeffrey Epstein to name a few. This episode will begin a multi part series that will examine America's powerful underground sex world. Today! We begin with Jeffrey upstate. Sales. Obviously journalist Julie Bindel has pinned a story big porn for the spectators inaugural US addition. in this case, she described the stunning size of the business She wrote that annual revenue from the global porn industry has been estimated at up to ninety billion dollars. To put that into context Hollywood. Only makes about ten billion per year legal prostitution in the state of Nevada, grosses added about seventy five million per year while illegal prostitution. In the Las Vegas area about five billion per year. Research has shown that more than nine thousand elicit massage. Businesses are open for business in America, hiding in plain sight and strip malls, dotting this ad to highways in a busy commercial strips in every state. Their total revenue hovers around two point five billion annually in while these industries are targeting the blue collar worker. It is important to understand that in reality sexism discriminatory. It is natural that a person would want to experience sexual gratification. Yet American morals values shun sexual, promiscuity. Is specially if it's displayed by the most powerful. It only makes sense at the most powerful heaven, underground or black market option for their kinks in pleasure. And that is where Jeffrey Epstein comes in. Epstein was born in Nineteen fifty three. In The New York City Borough Brooklyn Jewish parents. Pauline Seymour Epstein. Were married in nineteen fifty two shortly before his birth. Pauline work is a school aide in as a homemaker. Same more work for the New York City Department of Parks and recreation as groundskeeper in Gardner. Jeffrey was the elder of two Siblings Epstein and his brother Mark grew up in the working class neighborhood of Seagate on coney. Island, if Stein attended public schools first ps one, eighty, eight and Mark Twain Generous School nearby. In nineteen sixty seven, if attended the national music camp at the Interlocken School for the arts again playing piano when he was five. In. We're GONNA. Graduate Nineteen, sixty nine from Lafayette High School. At the age of sixteen having passed. having skipped two grades. Later that year, he would attend classes at Cooper Union until he changed colleges in. Nineteen seventy one. From September nine, hundred, seventy, one attended the Koran. School of mathematical scientists in New York University, but left without receiving a degree in June of Nineteen, seventy four. If seeing was no dummy by any account at the age of twenty one, he would start working a in September of seventy four as a physics in math teacher for taking to the Dalton School, only upper east side of Manhattan. And I think that's probably where his story really begins in terms of the sex crimes that he committed. Or was accused of committing. Donald Barr, who served as a head master? Until Nineteen, seventy four was known to have made several unconventional recruitments at the top, although it is unclear whether he had a direct role in hiring Epstein. Bars an interesting piece to this whole puzzle, concerning Jeffrey Epstein. Barr served as an officer in the Office of strategic services known as S. O S was a wartime intelligence agency for the United. States during world. War Two in fact, it's the predecessor to the current day Central Intelligence Agency. And his wife Mary Margaret. A had four children including William P bar, and then they may sound familiar and should. William Barr served as a seventy seven US attorney general in the George H W. Bush administration, and I think it's important that we remember that. Any also currently serves as the eighty fifth US Attorney General in the Donald Trump administration. Those connections will play a key. Later on in the story. Three months after bars, departure Epstein began to teach at the exclusive private school despite his lack of credentials. F seen allegedly showed inappropriate behavior towards underage students at the time. According to The New York Times, some students, all Mr Epstein unusual in unsettling figure, willing to violate the norms in his encounters with girls, eight former students who attended the prestigious school during Epstein Short tenure, there said that his conduct with teenage girls had left an impression that had lingered for decades, one former student recalled him showing up at a party where students were drinking, while most were his persistent on the girls in hallways in classrooms. Headmaster was known to run a tight ship. You would say that the appointment of abstain as a teacher is even more questionable knowing this. While Mr Bar was strict on the school culture. He made it a point to hire teachers from unconventional bag. grouts recalled Susan Sa- mail. A Social Studies teacher adult in from the nineteen sixties to the nineteen eighty s, who later wrote a book on the history of the school. Now in a school, no for creativity administrators have prohibited denim jeans and bazaar in eccentric costumes. If Mr Bar called students using marijuana, he would often send them to therapy as a condition of staying in the school. He himself described his leadership. Style is by you Kasey using the Emperoro Russian term for an etiquette from czar. Staff members would sometimes turn students away from their morning classes, girls for skirts. That were too short and boys for hair. That was to loan. Some students and parents balked at the constraints D- Stale. The school continued to draw families of fame around the years of Mr Epstein tenure. Record show the student roster included prudence Murdoch the daughter of media mogul. Rupert Murdoch the fashion designer Geel Stewart. In several future actors, actresses including Jennifer Gray Tracy Paul Imagine, wheeler. During this time he would become acquainted with Alan, Greenberg. The chief executive officer of bear stearns, whose son and daughter were going to the school. Greensburg daughter Lynn Copa pointed to a parent teacher conference where Epstein influenced another dog parrot into advocating for him to Greenberg. In June of Nineteen seventy, six Epstein was dismissed from Dalton for poor performance. Wonder why considering he lack of credentials in well, he was attending parties with children. Greenberg him a job at bear stearns. We'll take. This guy's getting made so far. You think about it. Goes Onto College, right? He doesn't Finish College. Murray Bright Gabon, by all means the fact that he skipped two grades and graduated eighty-six. Sixteen gets a job as a teacher without a college degree, number, one or any teaching credentials. Meets up with a? A. A former. Spy, who is the father to the future? Not only once but twice US Attorney General. Eddy's teaching, one of the most prestigious schools in New York City only to be dismissed because he sucks at it. And then get the job of bear stearns. while. So. If Saint joins bear stearns in nineteen, seventy six is a low level junior assistant to the floor trader. He swiftly moved up into become an options trader, working in the Special Products Division, and then advised the banks wealthiest clients, such s a seagram president, Edgar Bronfman own tax mitigation strategies Jimmy Kane banks later. Chief Executive Officer Praise Epstein skill with wealth declines in complex products in nineteen eighty four years after joining bear stearns. Epstein becomes a limited partner. In nineteen eighty one he was asked to leave bear stearns for according to his own sworn testimony being. They rigged violation. Even though if seen departed abruptly, he remained close to Kate in Greenberg. It was a client of bear stearns until it collapsed in two thousand and eight, but it keeps getting stranger. Really does in August nineteen eighty-one Epstein founded his own consulting firm Intercontinental Acids Group I, G which assisted clients and recovering stolen money from fraudulent brokers and loggers seems a man of morals and values Disney. If seen described his work. At this time is being a high level bounty hunter. He told friends said he works sometimes as a consultant for governments and the very wealthy to recover embezzled funds while at other times, he worked for clients who had embezzled funds. Spend his actress in Areas Anna o'bryan was one such wealthy client whom Epstein helped in one, thousand, nine, hundred to recover her father's millions in lost investments which had disappeared when Drysdale. Government securities collapsed because a fraud. Epstein stated some people at the time that he was an intelligence agent. We want to remember that for later on in the story I think that that's GonNa come into play As crazy as it sounds, the more I read about this guy, the crazier the story gets. During the Eighties Epstein, possessed in Austrian passport that had his photo, but a false nate. The passport showed his place of residence in Saudi Arabia. Investigative Journalist Micky Ward said she was towed in two thousand, seventeen by a former senior White House official. That s Florida District Attorney Alexander Kosta who handled Epstein criminal case in two thousand eight said to the trump transition interviewers I was told. Epstein belong to intelligence into leaving alone. That Epstein was above his pay grade. We'll talk more on that later. During, this period s teams, clients was a Saudi Arabian businessman. Ebanon Khashoggi who was the middleman transferring American weapons from. Iran is part of the Iran Contra Affair Eighties. One of several of the defense contractors that he knew. In the Eighties Epstein Traveled Multiple Times between the United States Europe Southwest Asia in Wyoming London. Epstein would meet Steven Hoffenberg. They had been introduced through Douglas Lease a defense contractor. John Mitchell the former US attorney general. So we get this kid who hasn't finished college. WHO GETS HIRED ON? As a teacher by SPA in future father of a US, attorney general. Or, father of the future is turning general. Those. Who Work at bear stearns, not really. Nothing more than a line employees, but to become a partner in four years. WHO CLAIMS TO BE A spy. Fake passports running all over the Middle East in Europe. Now a sudden. Another US attorney general comes into play John, Mitchell? WHO's introducing him? To Steven Hoffenberg. I. Don't get it. has guys making all these connections he's he's really I I wish I had his ability to to to get linked into such individuals so Steven Hoffenberg would hire obscene. In nineteen, Eighty, seven, a consultant for Towers Financial Corporation unaffiliated with the company of the same name founded ninety eight inquired by National Bank court in two thousand fourteen. It was a collection agency that bought debts. People owed hospitals banks in phone companies. Hamburg Setup Epstein in offices in the villier houses in Manhattan in paid him twenty five thousand dollars per month for his consulting work, which would be equivalent to fifty, six, thousand in two thousand and nineteen. Hoffenberg abstained then refashion themselves as corporate writers using. Financial they're writing vessel. One absence first assignments were Hoffenberg was. What turned out to? Be? Unsuccessful bid. To take over Pan American. Airways and nineteen, eighty-seven, a similar unsuccessful bid in nineteen, eighty eight was made to take over every air freight corporation, and during this period Hoffenberg and work closely together and traveled everywhere in Hoffenberg private jet. Ninety Nineteen ninety-three Towers Financial Corporation imploded is one of the biggest Ponzi schemes in American history, losing its investors over four hundred fifty million dollars. That's almost eight hundred million in current value. In court documents. Hoffenberg claimed that Epstein was. was intimately involved in the scheme. However if seen, it left the company by Nineteen, eighty nine before collapsed. And was never charged for being involved. Wow, he was never charged with being involved with this massive investor fraud. Hans that happen? It's unknown. If Epson acquired any stolen funds from the towers Ponzi scheme. This guy's amazing. in nineteen, Eighty Eight, while Epstein was still consulting for Hoffenberg founded his own financial management firm J instinct company, the company was said by Epstein to have been formed to manage the assets of clients with war than one billion dollars in net worth, although others express skepticism. That he was this restrictive clients who took? The only publicly known billionaire client at Epstein was Leslie Wexner Chairman and CEO of L. Brands, formerly the limited INC and Victoria's secret. Comes to women in play in nineteen, eighty six fifteen wexner through their mutual acquaintances, insurance executive Robert Meister and his wife in Palm. Beach Florida a year later, Epstein became wexner financial adviser answered as his right hand man within the year Epstein. Head sorted out Wexler entangled finances. By July of Ninety One wexner grant Epstein for attorney of affairs in the power of attorney. Allowed Epstein to hire people, scientists buy and sell properties. Borrow money into anything else of the League elitist, legally binding nature on wicks behalf. In Nineteen, Ninety Five Epstein was director of Wexler Span Nation in Wexner. Heritage Foundation he was also the president of Wexler Property. which developed part of the town of new? Albany outside of Columbus Ohio where wexner lived Epstein made millions in fees by managing West or financial affairs. This guy is a genius. He's meeting all these elite people in these getting paid to do so. And he's not getting convicted of fraud. Although never employed by ill brands. He corresponded frequently with the company's executives. Epstein attended Victoria's secret fashion shows and hosted the models at is new. York City. As well as helping aspiring models to get work with the company. For this got to be his dream, come true I mean. He started out with school, aged girls and a private school, and now he's got Victoria's secret models. At his home. In Nineteen ninety-six Epstein changed the name of this firm to the Financial Trust Company and for tax advantages. He based it on of the site Thomas in the US Virgin Islands by relocating to the US Virgin Islands Epstein was able to reduce federal income taxes by ninety percent. It'd be I need to move the Virgin House, the Virgin Islands acted as an offshore tax haven while at the same time offering the advantages of being part of the United. States banking system. INTO THOUSAND THREE EPSTEIN BID TO ACQUIRE NEW YORK magazine. Other bidders included advertising executive Donny Deutsch investor Nelson. PELTZ media mogul in. New York Daily News Publisher Mortars Calmer FM. Producer Harvey Weinstein another sleazeball. the ultimate buyer was bruce or seen a longtime Wall Street investor by your who had paid fifty five million dollars. In Two thousand and four Epstein Zuckerman committed twenty five million dollars to finance radar, a celebrity in pop culture magazine founded by Mayor Shot Epstein and Zuckerman were equal partners in the venture in Rochon editor in chief retained a small ownership stake. It only lasted three issues before vote save like a business proposition I will do. Epstein was the president of the company Liquid Funding Ltd between two thousand and two thousand seven, the company was an early pioneer in expanding the kind of debt that could be accepted on repurchase or repo market, which involves leader giving money to a borrower in exchange for securities at the borrower. They agrees to pay back at an agreed upon later time in price. The innovation of liquid funding and other companies was that instead of having stocks and bonds as the underlying securities. It had commercial mortgages in investment grade. Residential mortgages muddled in complex securities as underlying security. Liquid funding was initially forty percent owned by bear starts with the help of the credit rating agencies. Standard, work. Fitch Ratings and Moody's Investor Service the new bundled securities were able to be creative for companies so that they got A. Triple A. Writing the best the best in the business. It's genius. However. The implosion of such complex securities because of their inaccurate inaccurate ratings led to the collapse. A bear stearns immoral, two thousand eight and set in motion, four, the financial crisis, two thousand, seven to two, thousand, eight in subsequent great recession. If liquid funding was left holding large amounts of such securities as collateral, it could have lost large amounts of money so here. We've got this guy. Who is hired as a teacher with no credentials? Fired because he can't do the job because obviously. He had no credentials. Goes on to work for bear. Stearns becomes a partner in four years into going around the world telling people. He's a spy with a fake passport. Daling with arms, dealers and defense contractors. Learning, how to meet up with the the richest in elitist people in America got Victoria's secret models at his house starts a magazine that only lasts three episodes, and now he's right in the middle of the great recession. What a life! What he live. This guy is now a part of. The greatest downfalls of history. More when we come back. The Story Appeals Spears is heartbreaking and yet a powerful message of hope. Redeemed is the story of his battle with depression and PTSD. He Eli more than thirty percent of our nation's correctional law enforcement officers as invisible wounds sustained from the line of duty. In this book he will travel through time in his own words and gang powerful understanding of the mind wars. He faces only daily basis from thoughts of suicide to redemption. This is his story of survival. Get your copy today at www dot p.. LEASE SPEARS DOT COM. Welcome back to the mute button podcast. Moral Jeff Ripston so now. He's involved in the great recession. I mean. This guy has been all over the charts. he would go to this eighty million dollars, but twenty, two, thousand and two in two thousand and five indeed swim. excuse me DB's warrants. Special Opportunities Hedge Fund never two thousand six Epstein while under investigation for sex type crimes attempted to regain his investment after he was informed of accounting irregular irregularities in the fun. By this time his investment had grown to one hundred and forty million dollars. zwirn refused redeem the investment, because were worried that Epstein's redemption could cause a run on the bank at the hitch thought it is unknown. How Much Epstein personally laws when the fund was wound down in two thousand and eight, this was shady as all get out. The government began negotiations with Epstein for plea agreement EMBIID, two thousand, seven, as a hedge fund began to collapse. We're GONNA talk more with a sex crimes later on. the plunges the funds collapsed would trigger the great recession in two thousand seven in two, thousand, nine in Lose Epstein of dollars in August. The two thousand six Epstein a month after he, at the federal investigation of him, began invested fifty seven million in the bear stearns. Great Structured Credit Strategies Enhanced Leverage Hedge foot. This Fund was a highly leveraged in mortgage backed collateralized debt obligations CD is. On April, Eighteenth, two, thousand, seven and investor in the fund who had fifty seven? Million had vast to discuss redeeming his in this moment. At this time, the fun had a leverage ratio of seventeen to one. Wow which method for every dollar invested? There were seventeen dollars of borrowed funds. Could Lord? Therefore, the redemption of the investment would have been equivalent to removing. Billion Dollars from the thinly traded CD Omar. The selling CDL assets to meet the redemption. That mud began a repricing process. In generally freeze the market. The reprocessing the studio acids caused the collapse of the fun. Three months later in July in the eventual collapse of bear stearns in March of two thousand eight. It is likely that Epstein lost most of his investment, but is not known how much. was, his. But the time the bear stearns fund begin to fall in May of two thousand seven Epstein and begun to negotiate a plea deal with the US Attorney's office, concerning imminent charges for sex with minors. Well told you going back to the days when he was teaching school. That kind of full circle, apparently in he never got past that. In August, the two thousand seven a month after the fun collapsed the US Attorney in Miami out a cost entered into direct discussions about a plea agreement, a cost of brokered a lenient deal according to him, because he had been ordered by higher government officials who told him the Epstein was an individual of importance to the government. We're GONNA. Talk more on than later is well. Because it really fascinates me. that. He has much support in the United States. Government and I think you'll make it all come together later on as part of the negotiations according to the Miami Herald, Epstein provided unspecified information to the Florida. Federal prosecutors for a more lenient sentence was supposedly an unnamed key witness for the New York federal prosecutors in their unsuccessful June two thousand eight criminal case against two majors, the failed payer stearns edge thought. is also snitch allender. Show which Epstein Florida attorneys on the case till Fox News Our business network that we would have been touting that if he had cooperating. The Idea Epstein Hampton any prosecution is news to me. In Two Thousand Fifteen, the Israeli newspaper Heritz reported that Epstein invested in Startup Reporting Homeland Security. Brandon is carbon in two thousand eighteen. the startup is connected with Israel's defense. Enter here, we go again. At the Middle East again deal with defense stuff. It is headed by former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak my goodness. Is this guy not now. Who was also at the time the Defense Minister? And Chief of staff of the Israeli, Defense Forces! CEO of the company. Was a special forces, officer and pinches Burke Burke, who was the director? The company's one at one time, the Defense Ministry Director General and commander of the F. Sabir Unit Eighty two hundred. Cowley. As a part of the intelligence community. If senior number, OCTA head of carbon were closed in Epson often offered him lodging in one of his apartment units at three, a one east sixty sixth street in Manhattan. Epstein had past experience with Israel's research and military sector and April. Two thousand eighteen went to Israel and met with a number of research scientist and visited. Israeli military bases during this trip. He thought about staying in Israel. In order to avoid trial impossible jail time for charges that he was facing for sex craps. However, he opted returned to the United States. WHO. This guy has been around the world literally. Jeffrey Epstein's connections with prominent figures never seem to end. November, networking, investing in people seen group of friends is impressive to say the least. In was impressive. As information about his private island in sexual abuse has been revealed waiting talk with private Allen yet. These tasks. A former in current opticians have gained widespread attention, and for good reason caused a lot of conspiracy theories and lot. Annan bedding said those theories go all the way to the White House. That's where we're going to end it this week. On the next episode. We're going to see where we go with Jeffrey Epstein in his connections. Maybe go to the White House may be goes beyond. I don't know that America's really ready to understand everything that went on in the Epstein Case I. Don't know that we want to know. But. We are going to dig into it on the next episode until then I'll see. Later thank you for listening to me. Button podcast have. Agree Week.

Pauline Seymour Epstein Epstein Kelly Harvey Weinstein Jeffrey US Attorney Jeffrey Epstein bear stearns Mr Epstein America United States Epstein Florida Epstein Hampton Virgin Islands Epstein New York City Epstein Zuckerman fraud president Manhattan partner Steven Hoffenberg Middle East