40 Burst results for "Fidelity"
"fidelity" Discussed on Simply Bitcoin
"The value of a medium exchange is nothing. Zero. Nothing. Because Square, PayPal, Apple, Google give it away for free to 7 billion people. And it works a billion times faster and better than Bitcoin Cash or Bitcoin Satoshi Vision or Bitcoin. It's an oddity. It's like an interesting cool thing. It has no commercial value. What's the value of like duplicating YouTube's video server on the blockchain? We could do that. Nothing. Right? What's the value of the third best social network? Nothing. That's the problem. The best one has all the value. Once upon a time, they calculated the amount of profit in the mobile phone business. And they found that Apple Computer generated 150% of all the profits in the mobile phone business. Another way of saying, Apple made all the money and every other mobile phone provider lost money in aggregate competing in the space. The value of being in the business was nothing. Zero. And so the value of Bitcoin as a store of value is, in theory, up to $250 trillion. The value of Bitcoin as a medium of exchange is nothing. Also, if you think you have a medium of exchange right now, is it censorship resistant? Is it immutable? Is it transparent? Can you send it across the world without intermediaries at the speed of light? Prepare to get fired up. Here comes Andres Antonopoulos to add some fuel to Fidelity's fire. You cannot use money as a medium of exchange if you cannot exchange it freely with whoever you want. Gradually, the corruption spreads and spreads. Now something new arrives on the horizon. A system of money that works on a network that is, first and foremost, a medium of exchange, a store of value, and one day potentially a unit of account, but will never become a system of control. It refuses to become a system of control. In fact, its design principle is neutrality, openness, borderless access, and censorship resistance. What does the insider group do? What do the regulators do in response to a system that cannot be regulated? They regulate the bits they can. They regulate the exchanges. They regulate the bank accounts. They regulate the national currency side of things. They shut down the on-ramps and off-ramps. They say, we will not let you take your money with you. What do millennials say to that? Dude, I don't have any fucking money! All I have is my creative potential, my spirit, my productivity. I can sell that directly for Bitcoin without an exchange, without an on-ramp, without an off-ramp. When I need to buy something, I will use my digital currency directly, without re-entering your system, to which I was never invited. Shut down the on-ramps, shut down the off-ramps, and I will stay on board. I will stay digital. I won't touch your gilded cage anymore, because I don't need you. I exit. Oh, this one's one of my favorite. Criticism three, Bitcoin is wasteful and bad for the environment. Those who appreciate the importance of the first and most provably scarce decentralized censorship and seizure-resistant digital asset that offers irreversible settlement would argue that it is. Bitcoin's most valuable features, perfect scarcity, immutability, irreversibility of transactions, and security are tied directly to real-world resources used in mining. Bitcoin would not be able to fulfill its role as a secure global value transfer. and storage system without it being costly to mine and maintain. Further, if powering Bitcoin, a global digital monetary network is considered wasteful, then what does that make the traditional financial system? Remember, this is fidelity. Consider the energy use and carbon footprint on brick and mortar banks and credit unions, corporate office buildings, paper credit card statements, plastic credit cards, paper promotional offers, mining metals for fiat coins, harvesting lumber, and other materials to print physical government-issued currency. The human time and energy required to keep the TradFi system running and more? Energy is a fundamental requirement for much of modern society, so it is more of a question of where energy comes from and for what purpose it is used. In the long game, there may be no greater, more important use of energy than that which is deployed to secure the integrity of a monetary network and constructively, in this case, the Bitcoin network. Yes, fidelity did just cite Parker Lewis. Oh, Bitcoin. Yep, boiling the ocean, destroying the world and the planet simultaneously. Bitcoin is actually really great for the environment. According to Jeff Booth, it might fix climate change or whatever people call it. You know, it's weather. But anyway, you know what is a problem? Gas flaring. You know what fixes it? Bitcoin. So go fuck yourself. As I said, like Bitcoin is really good for the environment. It makes energy abundant. It's going to lead us to an energy abundant future, which in turn lowers the cost of energy, allowing people to thrive. I wonder why people attack it so much. It's as if they don't want anyone to get ahead. But hey, if you're an environmentalist and you don't support Bitcoin, you're a larp.
Fresh update on "fidelity" discussed on The Café Bitcoin Podcast
"J.P. Morgan and you have the BlackRock ETF. A hundred million dollars is coming out of the ETF. If BlackRock can just deliver a hundred million dollars worth of Bitcoin and then J.P. Morgan has cash they can keep the Bitcoin and deliver the cash. And that's a tax incentive too under current tax laws. That's a tax incentive for them also correct? Yes. I think under tax and transaction fees it's better to have cash sorry to have in-kind and that's why they're pushing back I believe. But the SEC is saying that it's not that safe because it's new right and Bitcoin keeps getting lost. They don't really understand it or getting hacked. They don't want to have to deal with that risk and have an egg on their face for proving something that some people think is still a scam. Do you think they're also a little worried that FinCEN might declare these Bitcoin transactions as prohibited because they run through international nodes? That's a great point. Yeah they could be talking about that. Maybe more Bitcoin will be sort of tainted if Bitcoin's coming from Hamas or money launderers in China or whatever then they want certain Bitcoin to not be used and they don't have to deal with that headache. But yeah I'm sure the SEC's been talking to FinCEN. They already did not sign on to the DOJ settlement with Binance. And so maybe I could see them playing ball and being like okay so we didn't sign on to the Binance settlement because whatever reasons we think it's you know we have merit on our case and we don't want to settle. But on this thing maybe we'll throw you a bone and you know push for cash because we're not that happy with the custody risk anyway so we'll just go along with what FinCEN and the others want. Yeah that's possible. Just so people know what I'm talking about, Dominic found a beautiful nugget about FinCEN and it's this authorization section 311 authorization which basically gives them broad authority to declare almost any transaction if they can link it somehow to an international money laundering which is they can basically say if it's your brother's brother's brother's brother had anything to do with international laundering or financial laundering and they used a bank that your brother's brother's brother used and that's connected somehow to this transaction that happens they can then declare that transaction as prohibited. It's really scary stuff. Jacob can we please mark the show at the end. I'm sorry I'm not sure if that's ever given me. I would love to mark that please. That's not true. I call you goofy all the time. Brett Morrison good morning. Welcome. Hey there Alex. Thanks for having me. You bet man. Glad to have you here. So in about 10 minutes or so we're going to be shifting over to what Brett's working on with true vote. So we'll do that here shortly. Sounds good. Any other thoughts on the ETF stuff? Does anybody want to check my logic on the whole Hotel California thing? Does that sound crazy? I'd bet against it. I mean it's possible right and it's important to think adversarial live adversarially but I just don't see them doing that at this point. Eventually they will right because they have the power to so. Kind of say the same thing. I don't think they I don't think they see the incentive to do that right now. But Terrence is correct. Eventually they will they will it will dawn on them that there is incentive to do so. I mean does anybody. Is there anybody that come. Can we can we point to any example of somebody that has come into Bitcoin who like understands it so quickly before they've actually gotten their hands dirty. I don't know. You know with with stuff like that organizations like that you've got people working on it for years prior to them making moves. The example that comes to mind is this report that their staff did. This was back in 2022 BlackRock released a study that indicated the optimal portfolio allocation to Bitcoin was eighty four point nine percent and the remaining fifteen point one percent can go to equities and bonds. So I have a link to that paper if anybody's interested in it you can DM me. I'll send it to you. It's called asset allocation with they call it with crypto but applications of preferences for positive skewness. And that's where they dig into it. Interestingly to me. Some of you guys know Hoffa. He's Alpha Zeta on Twitter. But he's he's run a lot of analysis and this guy comes from that world. You know he worked with Merrill and he worked with Goldman and Deutsche Bank and managed some really massive amounts of money. And he's done a lot of calculations that say something similar like the the proper allocation of Bitcoin from from his view is much much higher than most traditional finance guys thinks is rational. I don't like taking any risk actually. So I do one hundred percent. I was going to say do you know do we know the analysts who wrote that or who did that analysis for BlackRock. Are they on Twitter. I want to follow them. I don't know if they're on Twitter. The names of the analysts are Andrew Ang Tom Morris and Rafael Savi. So we can dig into it and find out. So I would love to try to get them on the show. I would have loved to have been a fly on the wall in the in Larry's office. Maybe Terrence can speak to this in Larry's office when he received that report on his desk to see the look of utter disbelief and and disdain. And I'm surprised that those people were not fired at the time. So that my point is that the decision maker or the decision makers in that in that institution have to have to come to this conclusion on their own before they make this decision. And even if somebody I mean I've spent thousands of hours on trying to understand Bitcoin. I'm just a dummy. You know I'm just I'm just an 80 an 80 IQ or I will never understand enough about Bitcoin. I'm constantly learning every day all the time. It took me two years two and a half years almost got no excuse me almost three years to get to the point where I was like OK I've got the vast majority of my wealth stored in Bitcoin. I still kind of look at it and go oh am I really making the right choice. And I know I am but I still have to fight that. I cannot imagine you know what somebody in Larry Fink's position is doing and how long it will take them to come to the same conclusion. They're the decision makers even though this report is out there. The decision makers have to have to come to that conclusion themselves and that require I think we can all I don't know I think we can all say that requires getting your hands dirty and and screwing around and messing up and then coming back to it eventually. So when I worked on Wall Street the way things work is the research department is separate from sales and the other parts portfolio management. So they have their own folks and there was obviously someone who either was a Bitcoiner or became a Bitcoiner while they were writing the report and figured out oh my God like based on past performance it looks like people should just be 100 percent Bitcoin but they can print that because then they get fired and it looks ridiculous. So they kind of probably massage the numbers and came up with this eighty four point three one nine percent or whatever they came up with and the rest stocks and bonds so it could look a little more credible. And it was maybe not taken as seriously until somebody in another department was like oh my God this Bitcoin ETF is coming Grayscale ARK whatever we need to get on this Fidelity is doing it we need to do it too and let's figure this out. May have brought in some Bitcoin experts from that you and I all kind of find credible may have gotten their research team or whoever wrote this paper to kind of do a report to Larry's people. I kind of doubt this rose to the level of Larry when the report first came out but he's certainly aware of it and obviously can speak fairly well about Bitcoin now. I don't think BlackRock really understands or cares about Bitcoin. They care about doing what they're good at which is asset management and selling and promoting these ETFs and getting more cash in so they can make their fee because they applied for an Ethereum ETF as well. So yeah I mean in a TradFi organization can you imagine the amount of gatekeeping that would interject its way between something like this and highly unlikely.
A highlight from BlackRock Bitcoin ETF in January | Larry Fink Is Confident
"All right, so things are cooking in the market right now, Bitcoin, Ethereum, what we're doing and watching with Solana. We'll break down a lot of things for you guys today, but it's all going to be built around the narrative of the ETF, when and how much of an impact it will have on the markets. My name is Paul Baron. Welcome back to The Tech Path. All right. A couple of posts we'll get into. I want to kind of flow along here. There's going to be a lot happening today. Before I get started, I want to thank our sponsor, and that is iTrust Capital, if you guys are looking at long -term holding. In an IRA, this is one of the places to check out. You can hold Bitcoin over there, precious metals, altcoins, all sorts of things. It's all self -directed over there, very easy to use. All you have to use is our link down below. Get a $100 funding reward if you decide to go in on that. Low fees too on your transactions inside, no fees on a monthly. So just think about that. Let's go over to a couple of tweets here. I want to start off with Mike Allred, or Alfred. Mike had a very interesting tweet here, and I follow this guy. I would say he's a Bitcoiner, and he had a really good position point here on the first of November. FOMC press conference over, Jerome is off stage. Markets are not following the familiar script of dumping through the close. This is the turning point. Yields will fall, the dollar will top, and Bitcoin and equities will rip through the year end. Basically, Mike called it, and I think he's exactly right, what we did see in terms of yields starting to fall. In fact, we saw a fairly significant jump down in yields. If you look at what Joe Consorti was talking about, this is a good example, people are losing faith in US creditworthiness even after the 10 -year yield has fallen by 51 bips. So that to me is some of these nuances that happen in the traditional markets that start to move things around. It also starts to loosen up capital on the sidelines, and that's what you're watching right now. Then if you look at the comparison of where things are going around Bitcoin, because some people are saying Bitcoin could make it to 50K, and part of this will look at, of course, the ETF, the likelihood of getting an ETF before the end of the year. Even though our friends at Bootbar still believe that that's like a 70 % probability, I feel like this is probably going to roll into that January 10th date, and when it does, I think that is the key. Now, what does that mean between now and then? I think that is the big question for sure. Fox Biz says BlackRock is growing increasingly confident in the spot Bitcoin ETF approval by January. Listen, they're having conversations with the SEC, there's a lot of back and forth dealing with this. Ed Gasparino talking about this. Everybody on Wall Street is talking about this. If this does not happen, this would be one of the biggest fails, I think, on Wall Street in combination with the SEC, maybe that we've ever seen in the history of Wall Street. Other things to be watching for, and this is something that Seifert and I talked about the other day when he was on. Just in, French investment bankers receive an email from BlackRock promoting a webinar for their iShares that swap ETF products on November 15th. This is within eight days of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval window. This is something that Seifert and I talked about, Bloomberg analysts, and the questions that have kind of been brewing is that there's been a lot of advertising, they're called RFPs, and if you're in the media business, you know what that is, but there's been a lot of RFPs coming in asking about certain windows of time and how quickly you can activate ads. This to me, what is it? Because normally this is a year -end kind of thing, and year -end, sure, there could be a scenario where people are just blowing the rest of a budget that they've already allocated, but these seem to be very targeted and very specific, and when you get those kinds of RFPs, which we've received, then I'm always questioning, what are they looking for? What exactly is going on? That usually tells me there's a campaign brewing, and what else is out there right now that could be brewing in terms of campaigns when it comes down to marketing, just like Seifert said, there's going to be a marketing bloodbath of who's going to try to position first, whether it's BlackRock, 21 shares, Fidelity, all the ones that we have out there in terms of the spot ETF. Here's another topic on Bitcoin. Here's how high Bitcoin could soar in the first year of its bull cycle. There's a course coming in from Michael Van de Poppe. A couple of things he's pointing to right here, we're getting ourselves into a period of the first year of the bull cycle, means that most likely we're going to see a high of around 50 to 55K. I would agree with that to a certain extent. There are some things, if you're not in our diamond circle, our most recent post where Evan and I actually did two analyses on this. Evan did an analysis on the TA side. We did an analysis on the sentiment side. Looking at the long -term sentiment run of Bitcoin in general, especially if you look at how it compares to other assets, and you compare that to new activity, meaning new people talking about a particular investment like Bitcoin, it's starting to ramp up. So does that mean that we could be seeing entry -level participants or people that haven't been active for a very long time coming back in the space, which could contribute to these kind of numbers in terms of 50 to 55K? We're also going to have a period where we have the altcoins are starting to wake up substantially. Obviously, I think everybody's watching Solana, Matic, Avalanche today. Those are all altcoins, and they're all in a very positive mode right now. And of course, Ethereum clipped over 2100. Most likely, we could see a 22 by weekend. So there's a lot happening there. Question will be, in between, are we going to see altcoins do really well? And we're starting to see some momentum. Will that last? And does it act like a typical altcoin season? That's the question mark that I think a lot of people are trying to compare, because if you look at past cycles versus this one and the one we possibly are moving into coming out of a bear market, a lot of people look at it in a different way because of all this new speculation around ETFs, regulation, structured capital, the coming of age of this asset class, all those things that did not exist in the last run between 2019 and 21. So at this point, confirmation of the bear market is over almost close to 100%, especially with the breakout of 28K. That was the one that basically held the 200 -week EMA. So definitely moving forward for sure.
Fresh update on "fidelity" discussed on The Café Bitcoin Podcast
"Hey Coleman can you hear Wicked. No sorry. Probably not. Coleman you can go first. All right go go ahead and then Wicked will go after you. Sorry about that Wicked. No I think they I think they see an opportunity and why not seize it. If they have the power to strong arm the SEC and get their ETF through and they can see the potential for a huge upside. Why not do it. I don't think they have really any incentive to be the good guys in this and allow everybody to prosper if they can get billions of dollars flowing into their ETF and then they can make an upside of no one really knows that. I don't see why I don't see the people in charge of BlackRock having any incentive not to do it. But they could do this anyways. They could do this without the ETF. I mean. But not having the option with other people's money though Peter. They already have the option with other people's money. They got 10 trillion under management. I mean come on. Yeah that's that's in other stuff. But this gives them the option to pivot in multiple ways. You know if you look past just providing the cash redemption side of it they have options based on how things are going. And that's they love that right like right there. Their options are going to be limited by everybody else's because as soon as as soon as a significantly sized country decides that they're going to game theory ape in everybody's in trouble. That is that has not acquired Bitcoin yet. Do you think do you think BlackRock is going to leverage their Bitcoin in the same way that they leverage their real estate? It might be similar to how they treat gold in their gold ETF. But with their gold they're not they're not like taking out gold back the loans and buying more gold are they? It's whatever the gold ETF allows and I would imagine the Bitcoin ETF has similar rules except for the in-kind redemption stuff that Alex was talking about. But I do want to point out I posted this on Twitter. There is an article that says that BlackRock is pushing back against the SEC and wants in-kind redemptions for Bitcoin. Not does not want to do cash. Who knows if that's just theater performative. And it's good to think adversarially. But I think in this case it's much more likely that BlackRock just wants to do their Bitcoin ETF the same way they do their gold ETF and have in-kind redemptions. Plus Wicked for whether they're going to leverage their Bitcoin. You would think for friends and family they might make exceptions. So like if Terrence is a little short on the racquetball membership of course Larry is going to say listen we'll lend you out some of this Bitcoin for Terrence. But this is it. This is only for you. I wonder mechanically what's cheaper for them as far as redemption goes. I wonder if cash is cheaper. In-kind is cheaper overall because like if you think about it you get this Fidelity gets sorry Charles Schwab which does not have a Bitcoin ETF. They have customers and they need to buy one hundred million dollars of Bitcoin ETF shares from BlackRock right. That's the orders they got cumulatively. And so instead of sending over cash if they already have Bitcoin let's say it's not Schwab it's someone else that already has Bitcoin. They could just deliver the Bitcoin. They don't generate the cash or whatever. There's just fewer steps right. Because somebody has to sell. They can't use their Bitcoin that they already have and they have to use the cash and they might prefer just to deliver Bitcoin. Same thing if you're selling. So now you have a hundred million dollars in redemption.
A highlight from 1457: Bitcoin ETF 100x Opportunity Ahead!
"In today's show, I'll be breaking down the latest Bitcoin technical analysis as we do each and every day. Also BlackRock Ethereum ETF helps the price pass $2 ,000 as the community sees Bitcoin ETF as a done deal. Also breaking news just in the number of addresses holding more than $1 ,000 worth of Bitcoin has hit a new all time high. Where my long term hodlers at makes some noise. And quoting the high priest of Bitcoin, Max Kaiser, Bitcoin is up 100 % since this interview with Daniella Cambone 11 months ago, $220 ,000 is in play. Gold price is the same price. Bitcoin is the monetizing gold preach. Also in today's show, Bitcoin ETFs will drive institutional adoption in 2024. According to Galaxy Digital's Mike Novogratz and quoting Mike Alfred, it was so smart for BlackRock to apply for the Ethereum ETF to distract the crypto bros from the fact the Bitcoin ETF is about to be approved. They needed to reduce the buying pressure on Bitcoin while they finished positioning for the launch. Worked like a charm. Well done Larry Fink. Also in today's show, Hong Kong getting ready to capitalize on crypto's next bull run. I'd be breaking down this report as well as Bitcoin soaring by over 85 % before the end of this year. Not unthinkable according to a crypto analyst who predicted the Bitcoin 2021 top. Also in today's show, Bitcoin to reach $175 ,000 per coin. According to a top analyst, I'll be sharing his timeline. We'll also be discussing a Bitcoin ETF 100x opportunity ahead. Quoting Michael Saylor, Bitcoin is an asset class and that's a major revolution. If Fidelity and BlackRock and if 10 other ETF issuers all agree the Bitcoin is an asset class, it should be a 10x to 100x bigger than it is right now. We'll also be taking a look at the overall crypto market. All this plus so much more in today's show.
Fresh update on "fidelity" discussed on Crypto Altruism Podcast
"Big thanks to Steven for joining today on the Giving Tuesday special and make sure to head to givepack.io. That's g-i-v-e-p-a-c-t dot i-o to learn more about their work. And last but not least, I'm so excited to welcome Chauncey of Better Giving to the stage. Chauncey, welcome back for our special Giving Tuesday Crypto Altruism podcast episode. So excited to have you back on the show. I'm so excited to be here. Thank you very much for having me, Andrew. It's always great talking with you. Yeah, for sure. A lot has changed, obviously, since we last talked, but I'm really excited to dive into your mission of really making important tools for nonprofits accessible to all nonprofits, things that were maybe only accessible in the past, those larger nonprofits that had the teams and the capital to invest in that. So I really like what you're doing to really democratize those things for nonprofits of all sizes. So a big focus, obviously, of Better Giving is on charitable endowments, which can be a really valuable tool for nonprofits. So tell me, what is a charitable endowment and how are you making them accessible to nonprofits of all sizes? Yeah, absolutely. So an endowment is really just a savings investment account for nonprofits, but it's surprisingly rare in the industry, basically, just how philanthropy is set up. A lot of nonprofits have less than 30 days of operating reserves and only one in nine currently have access to an endowment. One of the challenges there is endowments are typically expensive, both in terms of initial setup costs, required capital to start one, ongoing management fees. So what we do is we provide endowments at no cost to nonprofits and not just US nonprofits, but globally, any nonprofit, regardless of their size, location, resources, can have free fundraising support and tools through Better Giving and then access to what we call a sustainability fund. So when a donor goes to donate, they can donate directly to that nonprofit and we grant that out immediately or they can grant or they can donate into a sustainability fund for that nonprofit. If they choose to do that, their gift actually becomes a generative giving engine because it gets invested for growth every quarter. We take a portion of that growth, send it to the nonprofit, compound some of it to grow the original principal. And in this way, when someone gives once, they actually give forever. I really like it. I think of it almost like a 401K or like an investment retirement savings plan or something like that, where you're putting in money and then generating this return, which in retirement you can take out a certain amount a year sort of thing. Similar idea increases really the bang for your buck of the impact that you're creating by saying you want to donate. OK, let's say I want to donate a thousand dollars, put it into this down and it grows a little bit, and then I grant that out at a certain interval. So I think that that's a great idea. And you also post on Twitter a couple months back and it said with Angel Giving, which was obviously the previous name now Better Giving, NPOs of any size anywhere in the world have access to instant, borderless, unrestricted donations that grow in perpetuity. Financial equity, inclusion and sustainability is what it's all about. So I love that. So I know that you're kind of working at this intersection of traditional financial tools and Web 2 and then also Web 3 and crypto and blockchain. So how can Web 3 and traditional Web 2 tools be used together to help level the playing field for smaller charities and create that and really democratize access to these tools? Yeah, absolutely. So I feel like if we've learned anything over the past few years, it's that tokenization isn't going anywhere. Whether you're bullish on crypto markets and Bitcoin or whether you're looking at all of these big players in the traditional world, basically Fidelity tokenizing assets, BlackRock, obviously a big player in the tokenized asset world now, all of these organizations, all these financial analysts accept tokenization as inevitable. So the ability to accept crypto donations is huge for nonprofits. It's also borderless. Anyone anywhere in the world is able to donate crypto much cheaper, faster, more efficiently, more transparently than traditional financing methods. So I think that's one of the key things. The other thing that's really interesting is that with Web 3 more broadly, there's a lot of innovation possible in how you set things up. So one example I like is we have something called the Better Giving Alliance, formerly the Angel Alliance, and that's really our version of decentralized social responsibility. I'm getting a lot of Web 3 projects to the table to donate to charity. And one of the incentive alignment issues you have there is that many of these blockchain ecosystems or protocols are token based. But if they donate their native token to you and you then market sell it to give it to charity, it hurts their community. So we have programs like the Locked for Good program, where a token based project or ecosystem can donate tokens to charity. On our part, we lock those up. We protect the principal. We put them in either staking or some kind of liquidity provisioning pool and then harvest the rewards from that and distribute those to charity. So in this way, the token community is protected and actually creates a new generative giving engine that over time does a lot more good than a one time donation would have. Very cool. Yeah, I like that. That's fascinating. So I know that like one of the reasons that a lot of you mentioned Web 3 there and how that can play a role, especially in the future, I know that there's a lot of work that needs to be done, especially around UI UX, around onboarding and on ramps and off ramps for nonprofits, making it a more seamless experience. But I know one of the big barriers for nonprofits as well as risk around the space. What can nonprofits do to kind of like ease yourself in and educate themselves about Web 3? A lot, really. So one of the things that we do is we serve as kind of a matchmaking organization where we'll work with existing brands and help connect them to different types of causes in need. So one of those examples was a charity in Uganda. They were building a school for children and didn't have enough money to actually finish the roof of that school. So we partnered them up with an NFT project in the space. That NFT project did a special mint just for this cause, got a lot of turnout for there, secured enough money to actually build that school. So shout out to the Space Tape Society. Thank you very much for your contributions. But that's one way where it can simply be the initial fundraising outreach, working with different brands in the Web 3 space, getting a feel for how that is. And then sometimes what we'll do is we'll serve as a custodian of those funds initially, right? Because maybe the charity doesn't want to touch crypto. So we'll collect that, grant that out to them. But as they get more and more comfortable, they can work on creating their own multisig accounts where they have multiple people from their business that are all governing a wallet and they're accepting donations into that, or they're actually using the different sort of Web 3 DeFi yield opportunities. And similar to a traditional investment manager, I would say you don't want to go and put all of your money there, right? But it's worth trying out. It's worth learning. There's a lot of potential upside. Now, that being said, the right to be a little cautious, right? This space is rather risky at the moment. I think that we're still in an innovation and growth kind of period for Web 3 where a lot of things are being tried out. Some things work very, very well. Others can end in not so great ways. So we've experienced that firsthand, both the high highs and low lows that the space can provide. And what I've learned is the security risks are warranted. I think that putting too much capital at risk would probably be not the most advisable thing. But the space isn't going anywhere. It is the future. It is what everyone is building around going forward. And you don't want to be the last person at the bus stop there, right? You want to be working and figuring these things out before that period happens. And so that's why we're always very happy to work with both with brands and Web 3 projects and sort of making that enjoyable, easy experience for nonprofits to really dip their toes in the water, so to speak.
A highlight from Gary Gensler Wants To Relaunch FTX | SEC vs Crypto
"All right, so a lot happening this week, and today is no different. Gary Gensler is on the Warpath, we're going to be talking about that, and also breaking into what's happening with Bitcoin and some of the markets. We'll get into all that good stuff for you guys today. My name is Paul Bearer. Welcome back to Tech Path. Before we get started, I want to take a moment and thank our sponsor. On November 14th and 15th, Human Protocol is hosting Nukeonomics 2023 in Lisbon to discuss the impact of AI and Web3 on the world and the economy of tomorrow. Make sure and use our promo code PB50 for 50 % off. Nukeonomics is planned to set to explore the future of Web3 with thought leaders around the world. Cool thing, across the program, they're going to be doing a full kickoff. On starting the event, you'll be able to get access to new speakers. They're going to discuss the impact of blockchain and creating human -centric economies and the future of crypto. They'll also have this thing called the L -Room, which is going to be a startup pitch, so make sure and check that out. And then the following day, you'll be able to go to what they call the LX Mainstage, and all of that is going to be where we'll see Web3 in music, along with AI and other influences in digital media. Some of the guest speakers include Sam Weeks from Google, Erica Wykes -Snade from Adidas, Cyrus Faisal from Swisborg, and Javier Garcia de la Torre from Binance. Make sure and check them all out. Don't forget to use our code down below. We'll leave a link. All right, so let's break into it today. Let's go over to the first tweet. This is the Kobayisi letter just in. Market cap of Bitcoin officially rises above $750 billion for the first time since April 2022. I want to zoom in on that for you guys a little bit. The entire crypto space is nearing $1 .5 trillion market cap. That's nice to see, $1 .5 trillion. First time nearly two years that we've seen this. Bitcoin prices are now 35 % over the last month, 120 % on the year. I want you to take a moment for all you guys out there that are buying in Bitcoin, have been buying maybe since the beginning of the year. You're 120 % up. How do you say that to people when you look at that? I'm just kind of curious. How do you play it? And also, what tokens are you playing right now? Make sure and leave some comments down below. Smash the like button if you guys like breakdowns like this. Let us know. These are the kind of things. So we'll kind of guide you along here. But the resilience of crypto is incredible. The statement here, can't really deny what's happening out there. You guys are in the right place at the right time. The cool thing is, is when you like this video, it's going to share it to others who will start to learn what's happening out there in crypto as a whole. A couple of posts here. I want to go to Scott Johnson. And it looks like we've got some confirmation. One with a hard timeline, so almost certainly decided along with other open apps, the most likely outcome, US SEC said open talks with Grayscale on the spot Bitcoin ETF push is underway. So this came in further on him and he said, my guess is Grayscale is one of the two positions they received assurances that they will receive a new order, X number of days alongside the open apps. And then they have not received assurances, maybe demanding a new order. Kind of curious which one you think would be the case. Will Grayscale be aligned with the rest because with this alignment of discussions happening, you get back into the scenario of, yes, ETF is going to start positioning and maybe that's the opportunity. Now, the real question is how does Bitcoin respond once an ETF does come through? Pentoshi kind of hits on a couple of points here. A lot of people argue that Bitcoin ETF is going to be sell the news. Yes, some pricing is going on, but we have no idea what the demand will be and there will be some to start. Sure, illiquid supply is at an all -time high. That's one thing. A lot of Bitcoin is now in diamond handlers. Yes, we know that. And then don't pretend you know what's going to happen. I agree. I don't think anybody really knows for sure. You can assume, I think with some reason, that there's going to be some demand movement. But the biggest point, I think, is a little bit of a ephemeral approach to it. And what I mean by that is that when BlackRock comes into the space, if BlackRock is the one that, say, leads the way out, maybe there will be another winner here. Could be ARK, could be Fidelity. Whoever wins that marketing war, I think that's the point in which traditional investors will start to question their resolve around crypto. And when that happens, there will be a tipping point and I think that's the point in which a lot of this is going to start to peak. Now, maybe the timing is going to be perfect too because you've got, obviously, next year we've got the halving occurring. Hopefully we're out of what could be a recession. Hopefully we're out of these conflicts and other things are starting to settle. We'll talk about that in a second. Here's Will Quamente. He kind of jumps in on this. It's pretty obvious that if BlackRock is filing an ETH ETF, then the Bitcoin ETF must be a dumb deal. I don't know if it's a done deal, but this is interesting that they bring this up front. Now, granted, they may have enough indicators there that this is going to happen and they don't want to be left behind in the sense of a strategy around an ETH ETF. I just had James Saferd on. He and I had kind of been going back and forth. First time I had James on, he mentioned to us and we asked him straight blank, what about an ETH ETF? He wasn't really a fan of that, but he's changed his position. So I think that he, along with other Wall Streeters out there, are in a position now that ETH is going to make it through as an ETF. Here's John Deaton. Although I believe a spot ETF, Bitcoin ETF, should have been approved a long time ago, I believe the timing of a spot ETF approval is going to help create a perfect storm for Bitcoin. Whether you look at, you know, Wall Street getting what they want or you know what's happening overall, what he talks about here is we all know no matter what happens in the not too distant future, second and third quarter, rate cuts going to happen combined with rate cuts. This is my point is that you're going to get into some scenarios for 2024 where the cycle starts to feed upon itself. Rate cuts, the market looking at a much more structured capital alignment with an asset class that has now maybe come of age, along with all the technical components of what's happening with Bitcoin, and then what I think will be an absolute barnstorm of what's going to happen in Web3. That's going to include all the traditional tokens that we talk about here all the time, including, you know, ETH, AVAC, SOL, and many others in the Web3 ecosystem. So a lot definitely kind of lining up here for good news. SEC Chair Gensler says rebooted FTX is maybe a possibility if it's done within the law. All right. So this I would tread on very, very lightly in the sense that I think the brand damage has been done. I just cannot imagine, it would take maybe years to get way past where we are today. Any of the people that know about crypto today are going to most likely be feeding into the crypto investors of the future, and what I mean by the future, the next two to three years. FTX is still going to be a memory that's not one that's easy forgotten. And I think because of that, just the brand ethos that FTX pretty much imposed itself on the industry, I don't think is going to be forgotten. So I think it's going to be a scenario. They will not be overcoming it. And the thing that, you know, Gensler might be trying to do here is maybe just set it up for failure so he can do what I told you at some moment. I don't know. But I would not. Why? Go that route. Why would you bring that sore back up into the industry when there's so many great projects out there and great exchanges and places where you can do things, including all these new entities? I just don't know. I'm not sure. Let's listen to a clip right here. This is Brad Garment House. He's talking about FTX. Listen in. I've spoken with a lot of Democratic lawmakers, crypto skeptics about this, and they cite fraud often, that a lot of people are defrauded through crypto scams. How much more work needs to be done to push back against that kind of narrative? The fraud FTX wasn't a crypto fraud. I mean, yes, it was a fraud. Maybe if Gary Gensler and the SEC weren't so focused on going after Ripple and meeting openly with Sam Bankman -Fried, maybe we could have actually avoided some of that, right? Marty bracing myself for when I go check Twitter after this to see everything the XRP army had to say about this conversation. All right. So you can kind of see maybe with Brad Garment House, obviously I'm trying to take this to the Supreme Court, will maybe adjust his opinion of how they negotiate with the SEC. And maybe that's what he's talking about there. It would be interesting if that actually occurred. Maybe there is something that could be done and salvaged between that relationship. I don't know. I want to go over to another clip here. This gets into Garment House talking about Coinbase and what their current status is. Listen in. I followed the Coinbase case a little more closely. And so maybe I can comment there a little bit more. You know, the SEC is not trending well there. And again, if at some point you would think if you keep getting losses, you would say, okay, wait a minute, let's step back, let's reevaluate. Or even better, let's be part of championing a legislative solution. Well, you say you're hopeful that something happens legislatively, but ultimately the way things are going right now, do you think more clarity is likely to come from Congress or is it just going to continue to come from the courts and the judicial branch? I think that's a question for Chair Gensler.
Fresh update on "fidelity" discussed on Bloomberg Surveillance
"Is your opening bill report Paul and Tom. John thanks so much. Red green screen on the right now with a VIX of 12 .87. Joining us now is excellent in the markets is the New York Rangers and hockey Howard Ward joins us with Gabelli funds. Howard, how's the year been for you? You're so good at growth. Have you had a magnificent seven -year? It's been a good year Tom. I think the Gabelli growth fund is up about 41 % year -to -date so it makes up for some of the pain we suffered last year when rose but this year by hanging on to the same stocks that hurt us last year we're having a good year knock on wood that this will continue. Our listeners on CarPlay nationwide want this to be a two hour interview old up 41 % is it the second leg of a bull market my analogy here is 75 a magnificent 76 then quiet and then the shock of that bull market second leg 1977 is this the second leg of a bull market. Well it's been a bit of a rebound I'm not sure I caught the second leg of a bull market or not and only I say that because I think the economy is moving into a softer spot and we see employment's getting worse the index of leading indicators has been negative for 19 months in a row. I think the odds favor we're going to be in a recession and it's going to be very apparent sometime in the first quarter and so that causes me to hesitate you know typically recessions come with some headwinds, headwinds for earnings, headwinds for multiples and yes some of the big secular winners some of that magnificent sub -nustax should power through this. The big secular winners will power through it but they may suffer some multiple compression but I think overall the markets going to be a little bit sloppy for the next few months until we get clarity on exactly how weak this economy is going to get. Howard as a long -term investor how concerned are you by our national debt and the interest associated with that national debt because it didn't the numbers are just getting mind -numbing yes and you know I'm afraid it's a situation where Washington won't do anything about it until we have a panic and you know when you look at the numbers it is astounding that you know we took us to 200 years plus 210 years to accumulate two trillion dollars of national debt that was back in 1986 and then we tripled that over the next 16 years and we reached six trillion dollars in 2002 we tripled that in the next 12 years we reached 18 trillion in 2014 today we're at 32 -33 trillion and the annual deficit is 1 .7 trillion which is nearly the total amount of debt on the books back in 1986 so it is a problem that's gotten out of control and we're not addressing it I do worry we're going to have interest costs this year of seven around hundred billion dollars for the national debt that's what the average yield on the debt is 2 .9 percent got a lot debt of that's going to roll over you know it that's going to be over a trillion dollars in an expense on that on the federal budget the only item right now that's even bigger than that is Social Security and of course Social Security has its own problems in terms of being able to fund itself do we have to address this you know we need to focus on it before it's a problem there are two numbers out there one for the national debt and one for the rate of interest and the wrong two numbers are going to put us into a bad situation and we just don't know where that is but we're moving in in that direction so given that backdrop I mean how do you try to hedge how's that risk an investor supposed to put that into their outlook well isn't that the problem because you know I can remember back in the 1980s and maybe you can too when there was lots of concern about the national debt and the twin deficits and how everybody will get of course that never happened there is a point at which it does happen I don't know how I think you just have very to be aware of this situation and monitor it closely and and let's try to pray that that in this next election coming up that we get some more focus on addressing this issue now rather than continuing to kick the can down the road Howard back to growth in your excellence Arab 41 % is there a new breath to the market can you identify big money 5 % money market fund money is well choosing stocks not so far I mean those money market assets continue to hit new this highs is of course the first time in a period of years when you've had an option for stock the market in the form of you know fixed income and cash that hasn't been there in the past and and so yes you have a lot of you know dry powder sitting there in money market funds but a lot of that a lot of that may just stay there and collect that 5 % as long as it can and ultimately at some point I do think you know when we get through this this slowdown we'll have lower rates lower inflation and money will migrate back into stocks I just think you have to be aware that there's going to be I think some some turbulence on the earnings front over the next quarter. But the reason I'm asking this folks I'm thinking of Will Danoff up at Fidelity with Contrapunt as well and Howard Ward at Kibbele. It's been a bang -up year. do How you adapt and adjust your portfolio? What's the now what after here? Yeah Tom that's a great question and you know we're actually pretty content the way we are currently structured because when you think about it when you have a recession bear market along with that the areas that tend to get hit the hardest are finance and banking, materials, industrials. These are areas that we have no exposure and so we're yes exposed but not to the areas of the market that tend to compress the most during difficult market environments but you know we do take the longer view. We can't try to manage the portfolio for every up and down. Every recession we've had, every bear market's been a buying opportunity. We like our companies long term. We're in them for the next few years. Right now they compelling. look pretty That's quite how well they've done. The earnings have gone up so much that the East have been taking care of themselves. Howard you have 41%. Nobody cares. We have your on not because of stocks.
A highlight from Robinhood Relisting Cardano, Solana, Polygon | Cathie Preps for Bitcoin ETF
"All right, so is Robinhood setting up for a bull run? Are they getting prepared for something that could be very unique in the crypto space? We're going to break all that down for you guys today. You're going to love it. My name is Paul Baron. Welcome back on the Tech Path. Before we get started, thanking our sponsor that is iTrust Capital. If you guys are looking at long -term holding and you want to do it in an IRA, this is one place you can do it. And of course, with iTrust Capital, you can do this by either locking up your ETH, your Bitcoin, put it in an IRA. It's self -directed, so you're only making trades within the IRA itself, and that's the only time you're going to incur a fee. So make sure and check it out. It's absolutely no monthly fees. All you have to do is use our link down below, get a $100 funding reward if you guys decide to go that direction. All right, so a couple of things I want to hit on here. This is Kobe Easey hitting up on Robinhood. Robinhood did their earnings yesterday, if you guys heard. They missed. I'll show you some stuff around that. But there may be a silver lining in this, and I want you to kind of follow along here. So stock officially traded below $10 on the share after missing earnings. Interestingly, Robinhood also noted a major slowdown in retail trading activity, obviously for most of the activity around crypto that's really reduced. And I think also retail traders, in essence, have also been damaged to a certain extent. But their transaction -based revenue decreased 11 % year over year, $185 million. Trading platform monthly active users dropped 16%. That's the bigger number that I don't necessarily like, down to $10 .3 million. And volatility in the stocks and crypto have been cited as the potential drivers. Okay, that's kind of the known area. And I think everybody that's following Robinhood probably understood that they were making a ton of money off of things like Doge and just crypto in general. And remember, they had to delist three of the biggest assets, and I'll talk about that in a minute, this year. And that also, I think, affected them as well. Another tweet right here, never quite understood Robinhood's business proposition. I want to play this clip for you guys to listen in, so people can kind of get a framework of how Robinhood is really set to make money in the future, because there's some things changing with them. Listen in. But how does it speak to what we're seeing across platforms right now where retail traders are concerned and where trading activity in this volatile environment is concerned? Well, to tell you frankly, I never quite understood Robinhood's business proposition because they have 10 million customers or 11 million customers, and they keep reporting losses. We interactive have brokers, has two and a half million customers, and we have about $3 billion of profits a year. So I just don't see, I don't understand. That's okay. It's okay that you don't understand, because I think there's a silver lining in here of where this is going. I want to hit on a couple of headlines here. ARK investing is and betting big on Robinhood Coinbase with over a billion dollars invested. Now, many people will say, well, I don't trust Kathy. I don't think her strategy is right. But I look at it this way. They, ARK, have been very forward about getting into innovation and really understand where innovation is going. And that, I think, is the thing that Wall Street is missing here. I want to go to another tweet right here. Now, this one goes more of a flip side of the previous clip you saw, that they didn't understand the model. Listen into this one. It's a little different of a story. Because we did have this loss. We had had a profitable quarter last quarter, monthly active users coming in below expectations. It looks like revenue is missing, even though those were up 29 % year on year. And a lot of talk about higher rates offsetting the weaker volumes. But overall, we're continuing to see some of the activity on this platform sag. Is that the right way to think about this? I actually would think it looks better than meets the eye, or basically the results are actually better than people think. So if you think about those mouths, I think they declined about 500 ,000. They went from 10 .8 to 10 .3. The decline is more muted than the decline between the first quarter and the second quarter. I think it went from 11 something to 10 .8. So you're seeing like an abating of the decline. To me, that means the first derivative is turning positive. So I would actually be less negative on the results. I'm looking at those first derivative trends, and they don't seem as bad. They give you like every month, they give you the trending update. So there's not that much surprise here. They're kind of losing the element of surprise because everybody kind of knows what they're going to report. So it's more about these sort of intricacies. Okay. Is it a buy here then as the stock sells off? Oh, 100%. You own Robinhood for the future. You don't own it for like... All right. So own it for the future. And I think the key here with this, and this is something that Cathie Wood talks about a lot, and I'll show you some clips on her, is that there's something here that could be even bigger than maybe some of the crypto plays. So I think Robinhood is poising up nicely. There is some recent news, though, in the earnings call that I think is interesting. And I want you to listen into... We're going to have a few clips of Vlad, who is their CEO, who will talk about some of the things that are coming down the pipe, but also something to watch for that I'll see if you guys can catch it. But listen to this clip right here. Robinhood could be a great place for traders to benefit from the future Bitcoin ETF. Can you maybe talk a little bit about the opportunity if it exists? Robinhood has been early to offer Bitcoin in its native form. Robinhood has really, really competitive pricing, but maybe customers aren't aware of that. So we're looking to solve that problem. We believe we have solved it. For our crypto customers, we've rolled out some changes to the user interface on mobile so that customers can clearly see the spreads that we offer on our crypto transactions. This makes it easier for customers to see their all -in cost of execution, compare it against other platforms, and see how great of a deal Robinhood is giving them. All right, so I'm going to show you a screenshot of the mobile platform. And what you'll notice here is you'll see that the spread is identified now. So it gives you the actual spread within it. And this is super important, and here's the reason why. When you look at the ETFs that will happen, all right, they're coiling up for an ETF to hit the market. There's going to be new players coming into the space that are going to say, okay, I'll go with BlackRock, I'll go with Fidelity, and here's my fees. That's the key right there is where are the fees? So what Vlad is betting on is that maybe Robinhood wins the direct access to the asset with lower fees within the Robinhood app. So he may get a bump, he, Robinhood, may get a huge bump in trading activity around all of this just because they're going to be lining up fee -wise cheaper than Coinbase and then possibly going head to head with some of these ETFs of getting direct exposure to the asset. So that's something to really pay attention to. And as it plays out for them, and I think because they're focused on that, it's pretty significant that they see something coming down the pipe. The other thing that's playing out right now is their strategy on a global perspective. Also in the coming weeks, we will launch crypto trading in the EU. Crypto benefits from a relatively clear regulatory framework in the EU, and we're excited to bring our capabilities across the pond to better serve that market. And that's going to come right on the heels of the UK brokerage launch. Just trying to understand in that context what kind of products or services that you could tangibly point to there. Would you envision kind of more assets for trading in the EU than the US? I really don't want to get ahead of the launch that's coming in a couple of weeks and tell you what the value props are going to be. But yes, in general, we do expect, given the clarity, to be able to offer a different set of assets and capabilities in Europe as in the US. Within the EU, because of the regulatory framework, it's going to set up a very interesting opportunity for Robinhood. They could energize a lot more tokens back into the platform. Likelihood, as we'll see, you know, the three horsemen, Cardano, including Polygon, and Solana, make their way back onto the platform in Europe. And could they be setting that up here in the United States as well? And don't forget, just in, Bank of England now poses allowing stablecoins as a payment option for goods and services. This is huge for what's going to happen in the EU. That gets back to the whole point. Will Robinhood be a successful platform in terms of a trading exchange within the EU? Very active overall, if you just think about the UK in general, much less some of the other emerging countries around financial services. Robinhood could end up leading the way there. This could be a big, big bonanza for hood. And I think with Coinbase, they've already kind of gone that direction. Now, of course, with all that happening and the good stuff, here's the bad stuff. Right now, US Treasury official says Biden is wanting to basically create new powers from Congress to crack down on crypto. So while everybody else is moving on and starting to understand where the growth is going to be, right now we have the US basically shooting ourselves in the foot. So this is a problem I think that we're going to have to face. At some point, Congress will be able to address this. I think that or an election. Next thing up here I want to hit on is getting Robinhood to talk about delisting relisting and tokens. Listen in. Taking the other side of that, looking at the US market, you know, you guys recently delisted some of the crypto assets. What would give you comfortability to relist some? Yeah, it's hard to say what specifically we're waiting for to give us comfort. I think that rules, rulemaking, court case data, that all helps. And of course, we'll continue to push for regulatory clarity because I think it would be a shame for the innovation that we've been seeing in crypto to be co -opted overseas. I think it's very, very important for the US to remain a leader in every new technology and industry that we possibly can. Now, remember, all the way back here in June of 2023, this is when Robinhood ended support for Solana Polygon and Cardano. And this, of course, was because of the SEC's crackdown on some of these additional tokens. Now, remember that. You take that, and then you take the opportunity of coiling up with what could be prepping for an ETF and or the win, obviously, with Ripple and most likely the Coinbase case that will be very critical of Robinhood being able to relist some of these assets and things change again over there. I want to go to a clip real quick. And this is talking about how Cathie Wood perceives Robinhood as a growth vehicle. Listen in. Robinhood, along with Coinbase and Block, the three of them we think are in the running for dominating potentially the digital wallet space. Robinhood is very user friendly. It could become either the digital wallet. More likely it will become a part of a digital wallet ecosystem, either alone, standalone or in partnership and in partnership with someone or as part of someone else. Taking a look at some of the stocks here, I just want to take a look at Coinbase. They had reported $674 million in revenue. Their estimate was $650. So they over indexed there. That was great. If you look at Hood, just to give you an idea of what happened here on theirs, they had reported $467 million. The estimate expectation was around $480. So that was the big problem. And obviously what you're seeing right now in terms of the stock bleeding out. So is this the time to look at Hood more of a long -term play? Maybe this is it. If you look at, and I'll go to the daily here and I'll really kind of squeeze out into time. And you can kind of see from where Hood has come from all the way down. We'll go up to back here in 2021 when really they were at the peak of the market, when all that Doge community was going like crazy. Bitcoin was flying. And of course, crypto services and crypto fees were being transaction on Robinhood in a big way. But the slide down, is this maybe the bottom? The last time they hit this range was around $765 back in December of last year. And then prior to that, it was in June of 22. So very interesting positions right now for Robinhood. If in fact they are lining up for a bonanza around the ETF and taking advantage of this next evolution of regulation. All this could be playing in. Make sure and stay tuned right here for all that good stuff. We'll continue to cover these kind of topics. If you guys are not in the diamond circle already, make sure and get in. It's another place where you can catch additional content. We have two podcasts over there now. And they're basically not available on YouTube. So you've got to go over there. Just visit the link down below. You can catch them there. If you guys want to catch me out there on X, it's at Paul Baron. We'll catch you next time right here on Tech Path.
Fresh update on "fidelity" discussed on CRYPTO 101
"Ew, got to get rid of this old Backstreet Boys t-shirt. Tell me why. Because it stinks, boys. Tell me why. I've washed it so many times, but the odor won't come out. Tell me why. No, you tell me why I can't get rid of this odor. Have you tried Downy Rinse & Refresh? It doesn't just cover up odors. It helps remove them. Wow, it worked, guys. Yeah. Downy Rinse & Refresh removes more odor in one wash than the leading value detergent in three washes. Find it wherever you buy laundry products. Everyone deserves to enjoy a McRib at least once in their lifetime. Because when you're this saucy and tangy and tasty, a life without one creates a serious case of FOMO. The McRib is back. Don't miss the classic you've been craving. Get a McRib, Filet-O-Fish, or Big Mac and get another for $1 or a mix and match. Prices and participation may vary valid for item of equal or lesser value cannot be combined with any other offer. That's incredible. I definitely am interested in having another conversation and learning a little bit more about how to get involved on the private side. I'm sure lots of folks are curious about how they can get involved. We'll get your website here posted up at the end of the interview. I want to actually dive into a little bit about your market outlook. I know you mentioned, obviously, there's astronomical returns that potentially are out there for crypto. I think primarily people are looking at the halving that's coming up in April 2024. People are looking at the BlackRock and the Fidelity Spot ETFs, which can drive demand. How do you foresee the next three to six months playing out here for a crypto investor who's at the summit right now watching and just waiting to see? Is it going to go down? Is it going to go up? Is it going to stay flat? What do you guys think over at Diffuse? My crystal ball is really crappy. I have price action like, oh, here's where I think Bitcoin is going to be in four minutes. I got no idea, but I love conspiracy theories. My conspiracy theories. This is not financial advice of course. Financial advice. Exactly. My best guess of what's going on, because the big thing everybody's talking about is the Bitcoin Spot ETF. My best guess is Grayscale was coming up on their 10-year anniversary of applying to become a Bitcoin Spot ETF. The SEC had a pending court case, and they could see the writing on the wall. They went to BlackRock and some of these larger institutions and tried to position them as a white knight. Someone who's more institutional, someone that they can have more confidence is going to run things in a very above board and institutional grain manner. And they said to them, hey, you, please put in an application for a Bitcoin Spot ETF so that when we are forced to approve some of these things, we can do a lot of them, and you are the one that is going to pick up a lot of the way and then we're going to feel a lot more comfortable with you being in the market. But from a logistical point of view, they couldn't just immediately approve it. So even when it happened, I'm like, they're probably going to sit on that for three to six months, and then they're going to start approving these things all in one fell swoop. Because then the optics of favoritism kind of go down a little bit. Six months, by the way, is December of this year. So if my theory is correct, we have a Bitcoin Spot ETF approval coming imminently, probably by the end of the year, assuming the government doesn't shut down, like big caveat, right? We don't know what's going to happen there, because that's going to have a big impact on this. But my best guess is that we're actually going to have an approval by the end of the year. Now, to your question about what does this mean for cryptocurrency? From a technical perspective, a Bitcoin Spot ETF is not any better than a Bitcoin Futures ETF. A Bitcoin Futures ETF tracks this price of Bitcoin by about 99%. You get pretty dang close to it. Bitcoin Spot ETF may be marginally better, but then it's more expensive for custody and all of these things. It really is not going to be much of an impact on how easy it is for people to get crypto or Bitcoin-specific exposure in the Robinhood account. It's just not for the Interactive Brokers account.
A highlight from 1455: BlackRock Will Pump Bitcoin 100x (Heres Why)
"In today's show, I'll be breaking down the latest Bitcoin technical analysis, as Bitcoin is looking to retest. 36 Gs, baby. Also breaking news, the Bitcoin supply held by long -term hodlers hits an all -time high. Quoting Plan B, creator of the Bitcoin Stock -to -Flow model, 83 % of all the Bitcoin is in profit besides some who bought at the top in 2021. But everyone else in profit, baby. Let's get it. Also in today's show, El Salvador, Bitcoin ATM network to receive lightning network upgrade. Let's go. We're also going to be discussing everything surrounding approving Bitcoin ETFs in the United States. And according to analysts, Adam Cochrane, he's predicting we can see a Bitcoin ETF approval as soon as this week, according to some information shared today on X from Gary Gensler. That's right. I'll be breaking this down for you. We'll also be discussing a trader that called the 2021 collapse, predicting a peak Bitcoin price action during this next market expansion. I'll be breaking down his timeline as well as his target. We're also going to be discussing Bitcoin will 100X from here, according to Michael Saylor, and he explains why. Quoting him here from an interview, Bitcoin is an asset class, and that's a major revolution. If Fidelity and BlackRock and if 10 other ETF issuers all agree that Bitcoin is an asset class, it should be 10X to 100X bigger than it is right now. We'll also be taking a look at the overall crypto market, all this plus so much more in today's show.
A highlight from Is Circling Preparing for an IPO?
"Welcome back to The Breakdown with me, NLW. It's a daily podcast on macro, Bitcoin and the big picture power shifts remaking our world. What's going on, guys? It is Wednesday, November 8th, and today we are talking about the industry moving on. Before we get into that, however, if you are enjoying The Breakdown, please go subscribe to it. Give it a rating, give it a review, or if you want to dive deeper into the conversation, come join us on The Breakers Discord. You can find the link in the show notes or go to bit .ly slash breakdown pod. Hello, friends. Well, as you know, we have been sort of locked in the past thanks to this S .B .F. trial, but now that is over, we're finally moving forward and you can start to feel a difference in the tone of the industry and the feeling of the people in it in the announcements coming out. And so today we're going to look at a couple of examples of that with the past clearly at our backs and facing towards the future. So kicking off, according to Bloomberg, stablecoin issuer Circle is considering an IPO for early next year. Now, Circle, of course, attempted to go public via SPAC in 2022, but their efforts fizzled out after the SEC refused to approve the deal. Bloomberg sources said that Circle is in discussions with advisers in preparation for a potential IPO. Now, while there's no certainty that the company will move forward with the process, the firm has reached a high valuation as a private company, making it a prime candidate to go public. Circle last raised money at a seven billion dollar valuation in April 2022, and the failed SPAC later that year was priced at a nine billion dollar valuation. What's more, big name financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs, BlackRock and Fidelity are all current investors. Now, Circle, for their part, are tight lipped, stating, quote, Crypto Trader Tolks wrote, Circle considering a 2024 IPO coming after hours is kind of interesting, maybe reading too much into it, but feels like increasingly friendly regulation plus stablecoin bill developments happening behind closed doors. Now, on that front, speaking at DC FinTech Week, Federal Reserve vice chairman for supervision Michael Barr stood firm on his position that the Fed needs regulatory authority over stablecoins. Throughout the negotiations on stablecoin legislation, the major sticking point has been whether the Fed is truly the correct regulator for stablecoin issuers or whether smaller issuers can be adequately monitored by state regulators. Barr said, quote, He added, Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire tweeted, Now, next up in our stories of actual progress, Custodia Bank has finally launched its long awaited Bitcoin custody service. The platform will use segregated customer accounts rather than an omnibus wallet to ensure client funds are safe and held bankruptcy remote from Custodia's corporate funds. This launch comes after years of battling regulators culminating in Custodia's fight to obtain a Federal Reserve master account. The new platform is targeted at businesses like fiduciaries, investment advisors, fund managers and corporate treasurers. In other words, a range of clients that may need segregated accounts to satisfy risk managers to take on Bitcoin holdings. Jeff Ross at Valeshire Cap said, Congrats, Caitlin Long.
A highlight from BIG CRYPTO NEWS! CUSTODIA BANK BITCOIN CUSTODY, A16Z WEB3 INVESTMENT, ETHEREUM WHALE LOSES PASSWORD
"Caitlin Long's Custodia Bank has officially launched their Bitcoin custody platform. A16Z leads a $4 .2 million seed round investment into a UK Web3 infrastructure firm. Kraken is looking to launch its own Ethereum Layer 2 scaling solution to compete with Coinbase. And an Ethereum whale who bought 250 ,000 ETH at 30 cents has lost his password. Let's break it down. Welcome to the Thinking Crypto Podcast, your home for cryptocurrency news and interviews. If you are new here, please hit that subscribe button as well as the thumbs up button and leave a comment below. If you're listening on a podcast platform such as Spotify, Apple or Google, please leave a five star rating and review. It supports the podcast and it doesn't cost you anything. Well, folks, I want to start off by highlighting the hypocrisy of Nouriel Roubini. If you don't know who he is, he is a fake economist hack. And I call him that because he has been trashing Bitcoin crypto in the industry for years. But look at this, Binance CEO CZ called him out because apparently he is working on a project that has a token. So look at that, right, folks? I always say watch what they do, not what they say. Nouriel Roubini has been a very vocal critic and he's getting exposed. So CZ said some people are shameless after attacking Binance publicly on stage a year ago, now issues a token and puts Binance logo on their website without permission. So unbelievable. There's even a BlackRock Goldman Sachs logo here. I don't even know that's legit. Now, the name of the project, CZ blurred that out. And I understand why he doesn't want to give these guys any type of press here or any try to drive people there to invest in whatever token they're building. But this guy, Nouriel Roubini is a piece of shit, in my opinion. And I hope he's listening. Nouriel, you're a clown. Now let's move ahead to some really big news, folks. So Custodia Bank, which is owned by Caitlin Long, who I've had on the podcast many times, has officially launched their Bitcoin custody platform. Custodia is a bank built by Bitcoiners and we offer segregated custody accounts on our custom built Bitcoin custody platform. They tweeted out, they also said, our Bitcoin custody service is purpose built for businesses, fiduciaries, investment advisors, fund managers and corporate treasurers. We're currently offering some of our services in various U .S. states. As a non lending bank, we offer integrated Bitcoin custody and U .S. dollar services, which is not FDIC insured under one roof, which simplifies other operations and reduces risk. We recently earned approval from Wyoming Division of Banking to go live with our Bitcoin custody service. Since we built our Bitcoin custody platform in -house, we're especially grateful to those willing to help us by providing user feedback. This is great news, folks. This is a bank built out of the crypto industry. Caitlin Long, of course, being very bullish on Bitcoin, has been fighting for crypto regulations for a long time. And we saw the Fed did not want to give Custodia a master account. And Custodia, in fact, sued the Fed. The Fed tried to get the lawsuit dismissed, but then the judge said, no, no, no, you're not dismissing this. Right. So we're seeing just the operation choke point from the government and the pushback against crypto to protect the TradFi incumbents. But we're winning in the court. So Caitlin's bank is a big win, folks, going live. It's a big win. And I hope she wins her lawsuit against the Fed and she's able to get that master account, folks. So huge, huge news. Now, Caitlin was also tweeting out because she's at the DC FinTech Week, which Gary Ganser, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse and other crypto industry leaders will be at. And the current OCC acting chair, whose last name is Sue, if I'm saying that right, she said he unfortunately displayed a fundamental misunderstanding of crypto at DC FinTech Week. He supports private blockchains for tokenization to solve settlement problems, but then said crypto is only for speculation and criminals. Unbelievable. So you know what he's supporting there, right? He is supporting JPM coin, the private blockchain, a centralized blockchain controlled by the biggest bank in the world. That's what he wants. So you can tell who's pulling his strings, right? He's a puppet. His talking points are probably coming straight from JP Morgan, but we've seen these wall gardens are not going to succeed. They're going to work within their own ecosystem. So JP Morgan and all its branches can use their JPM coin, but no way in hell is a bank of America or a Citibank and these folks going to trust that coin, right? You're creating just a new centralized system where people are not going to trust each other. So this is why the public permissionless blockchains are the way to go and setting up the proper rules. So this guy's clearly a puppet for the TradFi folks. She said, Caitlin continued, she said, I've complimented Sue multiple times in the past, but must call this out. His remarks ring hollow when the federal bank regulators green light the big banks like BNY Mellon to provide Bitcoin and Ether custody, but block startups like Custodia Bank. And they ring hollow when a giant incumbent BlackRock is in the pole position for a Bitcoin spot ETF approval over upstarts whose applications have been pending for years. Great context, right folks? I've been talking about it. These two things happening in parallel, Gary Gensler and the SEC, the Fed, and these different folks weaponized against crypto startups, yet BNY Mellon gets crypto custody license, BlackRock applying for Bitcoin spot ETF, right? Fidelity, Charles Schwab and Citadel launch a crypto exchange. Mastercard and Visa are expanding their use of crypto and blockchain. PayPal launches a stable coin. See the two things running in parallel, right? That's not by coincidence or accident. It's a clear agenda. And Caitlin is absolutely right. She highlighted here that Mike Keagney just spoke the truth. Public blockchains are useful, but private blockchains aren't. Might as well use a database instead. She said, this is on target. I hope federal bank regulators learn this. Keagney's right. The tokenization that federal bank regulators want is only useful on public blockchains. So clearly this guy who is the acting chair, he is a TradFi puppet and probably, you know, given his talking points from JP Morgan and whoever else. Now here, Omid Malikin weighed in on Caitlin's comments and said, I want to echo what Caitlin said. Sue's comments are more evidence that US regulators care more about protecting incumbents than embracing innovation or inclusion. Private blockchains are exclusionary by design, not to mention useless. I wouldn't say they're useless. They're useful within those ecosystems, right? You want a private blockchain, have at it, go for it, right? But don't expect anybody to use it outside of your company. So like I said, JP coin is probably working really well between the JP Morgan headquarters and all the different branches around the world. That's fine. Good luck to you, right? Best of luck for you. That's right. But nobody outside is going to use it.
A highlight from 1454: How Much Will 1 Bitcoin be Worth By 2025? - Fidelity
"In today's show, I'll be breaking down the latest Bitcoin technical analysis, as we're currently pumping, looking to retest 36 G's baby. And quoting the high priest of Bitcoin, Max Keiser, Bitcoin separates money from the state, defund monarchy, defund the central banks, Bitcoin fixes this. He also predicts rate cuts will boost Bitcoin to his $220 ,000 target, send it, let's freaking go. Also breaking news, Bitcoin ordinals see a resurgence on the Binance listing, we'll also be discussing Caitlin Long's Custodia Bank officially launches her Bitcoin custody platform, as well as Hong Kong is now considering crypto ETFs as part of an effort to become the leading digital asset hub. I'll be breaking down this latest report, as well as the latest regarding Bitcoin ETFs and the fresh surge of capital incoming. We're also going to be discussing one of the largest asset managers in the world, which is Fidelity, currently with four and a half trillion in assets under management, exactly how much one Bitcoin will be worth by the year 2025, according to their head of macro, Jerry and Timur. Now that we have had a new price pump, this is a brand new prediction I have never shared before. We'll also be taking a look at the overall crypto market, all this plus so much more in today's show. Yo what's good crypto fam? This is first and foremost a video show. So if you want the full premium experience with video, visit my YouTube channel at cryptonewsalerts .net. Again that's crypto news alerts .net. Welcome everyone. This is podcast episode number 1454. I'm your host JV and today is November 7th, 2023. We have lots to cover. Let's kick it off with our market watch as we do each and every day. As you can see on your screen, we got Bitcoin back in the green, looking to retest 36 ,000 and creeping towards that target while Ethereum, BNB and XRP are currently pulling back and in the red. And checking out coinmarketcap .com, the current crypto market cap is on the climb as well at 1 .34 trillion dollars with roughly 45 and a half billion in volume in the past 24 hours. The Bitcoin dominance a little on the decline here today at 51 .8 % and the Ether dominance has been dropping as well, currently at 17 % even. I'd love for you to tell me in that chat, how high do you feel this Bitcoin dominance is likely to climb for this cycle peak? Let me know. And checking out the top 100 crypto gainers of the past 24 hours, we got the trust wallet token leading the pack up 9 % trading at $1 .79, followed by Solana up 9 % trading at 44 bucks, followed by Kronos up almost 8 % trading just under 8 cents and checking out crypto bubbles so we can see the top 100 gainers of the past week. Kind of a lot in the red right now, but we do have a handful in the green as well. BNTWT up 9 % and PLS up 6 .4 % and TON up 6 .7 % with the biggest loser being WeMixed down almost 19 % and checking out one of my favorite indicators, the crypto greed and fear index shows we're currently rated a 68 in greed yesterday was a 74 last week a 66 and last month a 50 dead in the middle, which is neutral. So there you have it, fam. How many of you are currently bullish on that king crypto? Please let me know in that live chat. So let's just kick it off into high gear and let's break down today's Bitcoin technical analysis. Check out the charts where the Bitcoin price action is likely to go next. So here we go. Check it out. You're looking at the Bitcoin one hour candle chart here. Bitcoin fell towards 34 .5 November 7th as analysts attention turned to mushrooming the open interest data from coin Telegraph and trading view showed Bitcoin struggling to reclaim 35 ,000 to support Bitcoin lacked clear direction into the Wall Street open, but market participants predicted the volatility would soon return. The reason they said was a sharp increase in open interest on derivative markets, quitting them here, almost 10 ,000 BTC worth 350 million in open interest added today, according to financial commentator Ted talks macro now coin Telegraph open interest reaching elevated levels has coincided with bouts of volatility in the recent months. Current levels total nearly 15 and a half billion at this time. And James van Stratton research and data analysts at crypto insights crypto slate described the fluctuations as noticeable, quitting him here. The CME exchange preferred by institutional investors has achieved a new record in open interest with 105 ,000 BTC contracts open valid at $3 .68 billion. Finance has edged past this figure would open interest of approximately 113 ,500 BTC. This trend points to increasing involvement in Bitcoin futures, hinting at either a positive shift in the market mood or a move towards protective strategies by the investors. Now the sense of uncertainty over how the open interest phenomenon would play out was shared by J .A. Martin, a contributor of on -chain analytics platform crypto quant as he shares here on X Bitcoin on the low timeframe. The open interest on Bitcoin futures is ramping up. Certain apes are taken significant positions, but it is unclear to me whether they're going to short or too long. Now in his analysis, he suggests the open interest was now in a territory that had previously seen 20 % of the Bitcoin price drawdowns, quitting him here historically, whenever this metric surpassed 12 .2 billion, it resulted in a minimum 20 % decline of the Bitcoin price. That interest open deserved significant attention. Now continuing this current pump, we have 36 ,000, which I think we're likely to retest here shortly as we started pumping right before I went live. According to school analytics, Bitcoin's looking like a short covering bounce here. Some open interest is coming off the lows here too. Word up and good to note. And going back here, let's see what other analysts we can quote here. We also have material indicators who shared the following. Calling a local top at 36 ,000 doesn't mean 36 ,000 is off the table this year. But the metrics I'm looking at indicate that at the very least it is off the table for this week. He says that call also doesn't mean the price will free fall back to the prior 25, 28, five range. But if a bull breakout isn't validated for this month, that range low is critical. So there you have it. I disagree with this analyst. Clearly, we're pumping right now and I feel we're likely to retest 36 ,000 potentially here today. We shall soon see. And quoting Max Keiser, the high priest of Bitcoin, he says, Bitcoin separates money and all that gold from the state, defund monarchy, defund the central banks. Bitcoin fixes this and he's responding to this news here. The king delivers the king's speech from the throne in the House of Lords chamber. The speech is written by the government and sets out the legislative agenda for the new session. Max Keiser also wrote here in regards to this tweet, the Fed doesn't want to talk about rate cuts, but Wall Street is sniffing out an increasing likelihood of just that. Six months ago, if the economy had fallen off the cliff, the Fed's hands were tied and it couldn't cut rates. Well, now it can. And Max Keiser responded, the rate cuts will boost Bitcoin to my 220 ,000 dollar target for sure. We'll send it and let's freaking go. Let's dive into our next story of the day and discuss the latest with Bitcoin ordinals, which is their NFTs. How many of you have actually experimented or used Bitcoin ordinals before? Please do let me know. Ordinals is a BRC20 token collection minted on the Bitcoin blockchain, which surged 80 or sorry, 40 percent in the past 24 hours to $10 .19 after listing on the crypto exchange Binance. And according to Binance's November 7th announcement, traders can now trade ordinals against Tether. Now, Bitcoin and the Turkish lira as well, Binance claims that it did not charge developers any listing fees for the already token and that withdrawals will now open November 8th as part of the initial incentives. The first 1000 users who deposit at least 72 already to the exchange receive 50 USDT trading rebate voucher, quoting them here already is a relatively new token that poses a higher than normal risk and as such will likely be subject to high price volatility. Word up. Now, the Bitcoin ordinals is a numbering system that assigns a unique number to each individual Satoshi or one 100 million of a Bitcoin, enabling tracking and transfer and combined with the inscription process, which adds an additional layer of data to each Satoshi. This allows users to make unique digital assets on the digital Bitcoin blockchain. The current token listed on Binance already is not associated with developers of Bitcoin ordinals. Good to note. Invented by Web3 developer Rod or more in January, BRC20 tokens have surged in popularity of one of the largest technological advancements in a 15 year old block chain. Now, self custody wallet providers such as BitKeep now BitGet Wallet have enabled BRC20 token deposits as well as withdrawals since June. The total market cap of BRC20 tokens currently stands at one point three four billion dollars. So there you have it. Hi, fam. Let's dive into our next story of the day and discuss the latest with Custodia Bank now offering Bitcoin custodial services. This is actually pretty cool. And this is Caitlin Long's company. By the way, she's also very bullish on BTC Custodia Bank, a crypto friendly bank founded by Bitcoin advocate Caitlin Long launched its BT custody platform. The firm shared November 7th to announce the launch of Custodia Bank's Bitcoin custody service targeting businesses like fiduciaries, investment advisors, fund managers and corporate treasurers. The launch comes soon after Custodia Bank earned approval from the Wyoming Division of Banking to go live with the service. The announcement notes and announcing the news, Custodia Bank emphasized that the platform is a non lending bank built by Bitcoiners that offer segregated custody accounts on its custom built Bitcoin custody platform. The statement said Custodia Bank offers integrated Bitcoin custody and U .S. dollar services all on one platform designed to simplify the user operations while reducing risk. Here's what they shared. Since we built our Bitcoin custody platform in -house, we are especially grateful to those willing to help us by providing user feedback. Now, Custodia Bank's approval from the Wyoming Division of Banking follows a series of regulatory challenges for the firm. Back in January of this year, the Federal Reserve Board rejected the bank's application to become a member of the Federal Reserve System. Not surprising, right? Saying it was inconsistent with the required factors under the law. The Fed subsequently denied Custodia's request to reconsider its membership application in the system. That's just straight wrong. In a detailed report back in March, the Fed's board said the decision to reject Custodia's app was due to concerns about banks with high concentration of activities related to the crypto industry. Hence why they don't want it. They don't want to support crypto, fam. It's clear. Custodia Bank opened for business in August of this year, though the Fed has blocked much of its proposed business model, which doesn't come as a surprise. Founded in 2020, Custodia is a bank aiming to bridge the gap between digital assets and a digital asset custodian. The firm was formerly known as Avante Financial Group and is based in Cheyenne, Wyoming. Custodia Bank did not immediately respond to requests for comment, but hey, it's definitely a good sign that adoption is coming and banks will be integrating Bitcoin or they're just going to get left behind. So hopefully many major banks follow in the footsteps of Caitlin Long's Custodia Bank. But let me know, fam, how you guys feel. And a reminder, only keep in the bank what you're willing to lose at the end of the day. Because what if there was a bank run? Even with it being FDIC insured, they don't have the money to give it to everybody. Hence what happened earlier in the year with the regional banking crisis and what happened in return to Bitcoin. We started pumping. In fact, Bitcoin's up well over 100 percent since the start of the year. And I feel we're just getting started. All right, fam. Now let's dive into our next story of the day and discuss the latest with the ETF news coming out of Hong Kong, which I know is not in the mainland of China, but still considered a part of China. And I think we're going to have ETF adoption not just in the United States, but clearly in Asia as well as in the Middle East, because in all markets they're seeking it and competition definitely a good thing, especially when it comes to these ETFs. So let's break down this latest report. Hong Kong is reportedly weighing the possibility of allowing the spot crypto ETF in a Bloomberg report. The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission CEO, Julia Leong, outlines what it would take for the spot crypto ETFs to be authorized in the city -state, quoting her here. We welcome proposals using innovative tech that boost efficiency and customer experience. We're happy to try it as long as new risks are addressed. Our approach is consistent regardless of the asset. So according to Bloomberg, Hong Kong currently only allows future based crypto ETFs and among the listed products includes the Samsung Bitcoin futures active as well as the Bitcoin and Ethereum futures ETF issued by CSOP Asset Management. The possibility of a spot crypto ETF getting approved in Hong Kong comes at a time when Hong Kong's ambitions of becoming a leading digital asset hub are in high gear. According to the report earlier in the year, Hong Kong rolled out a virtual asset regulatory framework and on the crypto regulatory framework. Here's what she shared, Hong Kong's comprehensive virtual asset regulatory framework follows the principle of same business, same risks, same rules, and aims to provide robust investor protections and manage those key risks. This will enable the industry to develop sustainably and support innovation. Also reports emerged in June that Hong Kong Monetary Authority pushed for banks in the city -state to offer their services to licensed crypto exchanges. It was also reported in February that China was supposedly in support of Hong Kong's plans to allow both institutional and retail investors to trade in crypto assets. So there you have it, fam, mass adoption. Let's freaking go. We all know there's trillions of dollars sitting on the sidelines just awaiting that spot Bitcoin ETF approval. And once we get that green light game on, it will absolutely be a game changer. But anyways, fam, now let's discuss Bitcoin ETFs being we're discussing them already. And it's on everyone's mind right now before we break into the latest prediction from one of the largest asset manager, Fidelity, who currently controls four and a half trillion in assets under management. Let's first discuss these BlackRock ETFs and ETFs from some of the other asset managers. Here we go. The launch of a spot Bitcoin ETF from BlackRock is a highly anticipated event in the crypto industry. I'd say the biggest, most anticipated event next to the Bitcoin halving. You know what I mean? It's expected to provide unprecedented institutional access to the crypto market, representing a significant shift from leading banks and promising substantial capital inflows. These developments will eventually change the industry and kickstart the new market cycle. What we're seeing in the market at the current moment is still speculation by the whales, some traditional firms and industry insiders. Now, while the move towards the ETF app approval is a positive development, the price discovery mechanism for Bitcoin is typically driven by derivatives like perpetuals. Let's keep in mind that these are leverage orders that can be liquidated with the right catalyst, whether on the upside or doing a pullback as traders take profit or leverage longs get liquidated. This means that recent price hikes post announcements weren't necessarily caused by a fresh inflow of institutional capital. Though that will happen eventually, they were actually caused by speculation around ETFs driven by people already plugged into the crypto space, including the whales, quoting them here. An ETF approval means that there will be an exponential increase in the amount of capital with access to BTC. That's right. And spot ETF. Unlike futures, there is true price discovery, so there will be no market manipulation. So we should still take this as a sign of institutional interest. It is not unlikely that the capital that kept Bitcoin outperforming traditional assets came from the large institutions or savvy allocators of capital buying ahead of the positive ETF news. CME futures are dominating the crypto future markets right now, suggesting that indeed it might be more traditional institutions that are speculating. These are some of the players that have entered the room in the previous cycles, bull run or not. This kind of activity is par for the course. Now, how capital from Bitcoin ETFs will eventually trickle down? Let's discuss it. We should still pay attention to the possibility of fresh capital coming in. Former BlackRock managing director Stephen Schoenfeld stated at CC Data's Digital Asset Summit in London that an ETF approval can bring 20 billion dollars into Bitcoin. While we all know that's extremely conservative, I'm looking at trillions pouring into the King, just saying. While Alliance Bernstein, the global asset management company, expects the BlackRock ETF approval to drive the crypto asset management way up, all the way up. Now, ultimately, an ETF approval means there will be an exponential increase in the amount of capital with access to BTC. This simple change will be greater than any other development in the market's history. This arrival of capital will come over time as more and more investors and asset managers digest the news, deciding that an allocation is not only responsible, but absolutely necessary preach. Likewise, the adoption of this financial product will take years as institutions such as broker dealers, banks and RIA's undergo due diligence and other processes before they can even offer Bitcoin ETFs. It will also hinge on the arrival of key players such as market makers that are an essential factor in building investor confidence. The role of the market maker is vital to ETFs. They are responsible for creating and redeeming new shares of an ETF, a role designed to keep its price tethered to the price implied by the value of the ETF holdings. Now, finally, we have the question of what a Bitcoin ETF means for the rest of the crypto market beyond Bitcoin itself. Market cycles have historically moved from Bitcoin first to ETH second and then cycled into the smaller altcoins or more exotic projects. This time around, the effects might be less direct, but still obviously noticeable. It is true that a rising tide is not guaranteed in the aftermath of the ETFs going live as the new inflow of capital will not come in the form of direct ownership of BTC. Investors who choose that instrument won't easily be able to change or diversify their exposure to other crypto assets until more ETFs are introduced. Now let's break into our featured story of the day and discuss what will one Bitcoin be worth in the year 2025. While Fidelity's head of macro, Julian Timmer, makes this prediction with an exact number. There's a brand new prediction I've never shared before, so let's break this one down, shall we? A massive shout out to everyone in that live chat just joining us. Fidelity Investments global macro director, Julian Timmer, is updating his outlook on Bitcoin following the latest Bitcoin price surge. He just shared on X to his almost 200 ,000 followers. The Bitcoin can soar beyond $96 ,000 by 2025 due to two main factors. He lays out a scenario for Bitcoin's price performance in the coming years based on retail interest rates, which is the interest rate minus inflation and the Bitcoin adoption rate, which is based on historical Internet adoption. Quoting Timmer here, with Bitcoin moving up once again, will its adoption curve accelerate as it did a few years ago? And how does the macro trend on rates affect it? Here's the data to consider. Here you go. I show a fair value band based on both the slope of the Internet adoption curve and the path for real rates. The bottom boundary assumes that the treasury inflation protected securities real rate of 2 .5 % and the upper boundary assumes negative 2%, which is where we were in 2021. The macro can speed up or slow down the adoption curve, which we have seen play out recently as outlined here in this chart. And looking at the chart, the analyst predicts the Bitcoin price would hit the lower bound of 41 ,000 in 2025 if the TIPS real rate remains as high as the current rate. However, if the real rate declines to what it was in 2021, the price prediction would soar to $96 ,210 in 2025, which is a 175 % increase from the current value. Now let's read his thread, which he shared here on X. I also got to throw out there, he also is predicting a $1 billion Bitcoin price by the year 2038. So by 2025, yeah, a little conservative, but extremely bullish for the long haul on Bitcoin. And I know I've covered that previously here on the show. How many of you have heard the billion dollar price prediction from Jerry and Timmer as I have covered it here? Let me know in that live chat. But anyways, let's just break down what he did share here in the thread so you can see the full discussion. Here we go. Above, I show the fair value, as I mentioned a little earlier. He also mentions the macro can speed up or slow down, which we have seen play out recently as outlined in the chart. He also says, assuming for a moment that Bitcoin will mature into an asset class that plays on the same team as gold and silver, how should we think about where it should sit in a 60 -40 portfolio and what would be a reasonable position size? Great question. Here's what he says. The good news for Bitcoin is it is an annualized volatility down from its 2018 peak, although at 58 % is still head and shoulders above traditional asset classes. That's right. There's no asset in which can compete with the king crypto because Bitcoin is a hedge against inflation as well as a hedge against deflation. It's a store value. It's incorruptible. It's unconfiscatable. And guess what? Gold can't compete either. He also shares here even better is 52 week correlation versus the S &P 500 had declined steadily and is now actually negative. More on the Bitcoin outlook on the next thread. And I highly encourage you to follow Jerry and Timmer. He shares a lot of good threads here, especially regarding Bitcoin and what's happening around, you know, the ETFs, the Bitcoin halving, the macro and all of these TA, which is technical analysis. You know what I mean? Let's see if I can find another good thread for you. He has quite a lot and he's very active as well. Here we go. Here's a good thread right here. He mentions continuing the discussion for my recent thread on Bitcoin. Let's talk about Bitcoin as a store of value. Yes, please. Let's talk about this. Shall we? Gold is delivering solid risk adjusted returns remains hard to beat above. We see that gold has one of the best sharp ratios out there, but Bitcoin is respectable as well in line with other major asset classes. This chart is based on monthly returns because it broadens the universe of alts. In this case, alt such as managed futures and equity long, short hedge funds are the less liquid variety, which broadens the mix while improving their returns. And below is a ranking of correlations to the S &P 500 based on monthly data of September. Bitcoin still has a positive correlation to the equities, but less than many other assets as outlined right here in this chart. And don't forget to check out CryptoNewsAlerts .net for the full premium experience with video and to participate in our live Q &A. And I look forward to seeing you on tomorrow's episode. HODL.
A highlight from Bitcoin ETF Frenzy | Bloomberg Intelligence INTERVIEW
"All right today we're going to dive into some ETF news but also some analysis from the experts really looking at the potential of what ETFs might mean for crypto in general but also of course Bitcoin. We'll dive in deep. My name is Paul Berra. Welcome back in to Tech Path. Joining me today is James Safert who is an ETF analyst over at Bloomberg Intelligence. Great to have you back James. Thanks for having me on Paul. Happy to be here. Excellent. Excellent. Last time we had you on early stages of a lot of the ETF activity. I won't let you off the hook about the ETH ETF though because we're going to ask you about that. The potential. But I want to go into first of all a little bit about what's been happening over the last 60 days. And most of this has been around the potential for BlackRock. And let's just kind of get that question out of the way. Obviously BlackRock I would say the number one at least institutional asset manager out there that's being looked at as possibly could be the leader. In your opinion you look at all the filings that have been made. What is going to happen when we do get these approved? If they all come at once do you feel like BlackRock just automatically wins the race here because they're BlackRock or do you think there would be some others that could really win some marketing points? Yeah. So the way that we look at the space is it's a winner take most world. It's not like there's going to be a winner take all type situation. You can't overlook the fact that Grayscale already has 20 billion in assets right now based on the current valuation. So they're also going to be a big player. So there's going to be anywhere we look in the ETF space there's usually one big leader who gets most of the assets, possibly most of the flows and the trading volume. But usually there's other aspects of what these issuers will find ways to differentiate themselves. So in gold ETFs some ETFs are going to be way cheaper than the most liquid ones. So that's grown. Some are going to store through their gold and Swiss vaults instead of the London vaults. So I suspect we'll see something similar on the Bitcoin side of things. You're going to have issuers that are going to focus on the fact that they've been dealing with advisors themselves and talking to them about what this space looks like and what it's going to look like and offer to be like we know this space very well. We're not just an asset manager. We're putting blockchain and crypto first. So people focus on that and then the people that will say like we're going to lend out the underlying Bitcoin and give you dividends or offer very, very near zero fees. Some will talk about like different custodians are going to possibly market on the custodians they're using. As we know, we've seen that has been an issue. So there's like a whole bunch of different ways, but it is likely to be winner take most in this world. And BlackRock obviously is likely to be the leader. But the idea that we have GBDC and Grayscale already existing with 20 billion assets is that's a huge thing to hurdle even if you're BlackRock. So based on you guys's analysis, if you look at the ETF services that could be offered because there's probably going to get some fairly creative services within these companies, what would you think would be one of the most critical things that a BlackRock or 21 shares or even a Fidelity could bring to the market to say, this is what we're going to do. We're going to come out and kind of hit with a splash and try to draw in these investors. I mean, the easiest, most simplest one is going to be fee, right? No matter what you do, no matter what your offerings are, if you're charging double the price of everyone else, you're going to have a hard time competing. Right. But also, you hinted at it. We think there's going to be a lot of marketing around here. BlackRock is likely going to market the hell out of this. You're going to see ARK in 21 shares. We've already seen VanEck start to market this type of stuff already. So we're going to see a lot of these players try to market and get to advisors. Directly to retail, they're going to be talking about why their products are better versus the others. But like I said, it tends to be a winner -take -most type world in the ETF space, particularly when you have just a single asset here, right? It's just giving exposure to this one thing. So people are going to differentiate on what they do as a firm and the products individually and who knows where it's going to go. But like I said, one of the things I did mention is in gold, there are some ETFs where if you have enough money, for the most part, you can't redeem the actual gold. But there are some ETFs that like, if you have $10 ,000, they'll deliver it right to your doorstep, things like that. So there might be a similar situation in crypto down the line and won't, not initially, but that might be a case down the line where like, if you have a certain amount, they'll send it to a private wallet. Right. Right. Okay. You mentioned something here about retail and because I look at this and this was in reference to an article, you know, Crypto Reshaping the American Dream for Younger Generations. This is a report by Coinbase. And within the Coinbase art or the Coinbase report, there were a few things that they pointed out to. One of course, was this millennial age group, 26 to 40. And a lot of this was around just crypto and blockchain as kind of the future of finance. Millennials really see this as a big opportunity. When you look at retail and you look at the current runway for a lot of these institutions today, do you feel that the target audience, because it seems like the millennial audience could be the new holy grail of the investment class, especially in reference to retail. Do you think owning that would possibly put someone out in front or do you think it's going to be kind of old school capital that could be leading the way at first? What are your thoughts on that? So specifically for the ETF, it's probably going to be more the advisor type of space that it's going to be looking at this. I mean, if you're a retail person, anyone, if you really wanted exposure to this, you could have downloaded Coinbase or Gemini or any app, FTX, you could buy at the click of a button. So one of the parallels we like to look at is like when gold ETFs came out, they democratized investing in gold. Yeah, you could always go down to like the corner street and buy like some gold coins, but that's very different from having it in a like professionalized portfolio. So that's more what the ETF is going to do. We don't think the one thing it will do for retail potentially is if you're a trader and you're like to trade these things in and out, the ETF is going to be way cheaper than a lot of these platforms. It's going to trade penny wide, there's going to be no commissions, which is not the case for most of these platforms. So the real people that are going to use these products if and when they get approved are really going to be institutions and advisors who maybe they have clients who have money in their own personal accounts on the some of those apps I mentioned, and it would just be way better if like we could control it. If an advisor, they know exactly how it is, they can basically sell when it gets too large of a portion of the portfolio and buy more when it dips below because we know we all know how volatile the market is. So just getting that professional management. Also from the advisors perspective, if I'm an advisor and you're my client and you're buying this on Coinbase or FTX, I don't know what you're doing. And also I'm not making money. That's not under my purview. Like typically the most advisors nowadays they charge an AUM fee. So whatever those total assets are, they're going to charge a slight fee on those total assets. And this brings us under that umbrella. So what ETF is going to do is going to put DeFi on the TradFi rails in a way that hasn't been done yet, which again kind of goes against the ethos of many of these things. But it's not going to detract from the underlying ethos of Bitcoin and what people want it to be. It's just going to be additive to people who want it in a different basically wrapper. Yeah. I was looking at your partner, Eric Balshunis in there, this is one of the many reasons so bullish on ETFs and think they'll dominate for decades to come is their usage is inversely correlated to age. Eighty -nine percent of millennials say the vehicle of choice versus boomers, which is though it is increasing in the survey data that came in from Schwab. But I guess the future is really going to lean toward these other alternative investors who are going out to advisors and saying, hey, I've got some assets here I want under management and here we go. And with that being the case, you've already got a mindset that's starting to restructure how capital might be deployed in the future. Is that something where do you think the switch would happen? Is there a time frame that you say, OK, maybe over the next three years, this we could truly see a shift in the demographic data that could push these ETFs into kind of a stratosphere? Yeah, so like if we're just looking at ETFs in general, one of the things I track, I obviously don't just cover crypto. I look at the whole space. And one of the big trends recovering is mutual fund to ETF transition, which goes to a lot of those things that Eric was pointing out, specifically on the ETF side. It's not going to be like these things launch and all of a sudden they're going to get like billions of dollars in in one week. Like I said, it's going to be institutions. So a lot of institutions, endowments, pensions, they have restrictions on what they can and cannot hold. So they have to hold securities or bonds, what have you. They can't hold this thing directly. Putting in an ETF wrapper allows them to hold it. So if there is there and we know for a fact that our institutions out there that want to have a one percent allocation to this thing, this might be a way for them to do it. The other part of it is basically it's the advisors, right? They're not going to if they want to put maybe some portion of their clients they think would fit to have a one, three, five percent allocation to a product like this. They're not going to do it the day it launches, right? They're going to do their due diligence. They're going to look at things or they're going to slowly put it in over time. So it'll be like an allocation that goes on over the next one, one to three years, kind of like you mentioned. So it's more about the long term impact of these things being launched necessarily than necessarily like, oh, this week it's launching and all of a sudden it's going to send things to the moon, if you will. That's unlikely to happen, in my view, personally. So obviously we'll get an initial splash once these do hit the market. That's going to be kind of the case. Is there any framework of what you guys think at Bloomberg would be the kind of inflows that would be relevant to what the size of this asset class is? I guess it would be similar maybe to what gold or is it even similar to gold that first hit the ETF market? Yeah. So when we look at gold ETFs, which is like something that people kind of overstate, gold ETFs in the U .S. have a hundred billion in AUM. This is, I mean, Bitcoin ETFs aren't going to get there anytime soon, in my opinion. And like I said, Grayscale, I mentioned like twice or three times already, GBC already has 20 billion in assets. So the idea that all of a sudden there's going to be hundreds of billions in these products in any sort of shorter timeframe than years or decade out is kind of unlikely. But yeah, I think of the upper limit or in like a three year time frame would be that a hundred billion number maybe, but there's no way to actually know what type of money's going to come in. The problem is like, we don't know what advisors are going to do, right? Are they going to do that 1 % allocation, 3 % allocation, 5 % allocation and what percent of advisors are going to use these products? And then also what percent of their clients are they going to want to hold these? Not every, this isn't going to fit for every single client in the world, right? It's going to fit for a subset of clients that they feel like meet their risk profile. So deciding that. So it's hard to really know Galaxy actually did a really good piece on this. I'm trying to guess the numbers. They guess I think 14 billion in the first year, but there's also a lot of things going on. We don't know how much money is going to come out of Grayscale because a lot of money that's in there was specifically playing what was going on with the premiums and discounts. And not necessarily like, Oh, I want this exposure. It was more like, this is a trade I'm making to bet on the discount closing or to bet on the premium or something like that over the last five years. So there might be some flows that are come out of there that might not go into some of these other ETFs. Now, how much of that is going to happen? I don't know. So here's a question to you is with Bloomberg, the way you guys analyze ETFs, but also the advisors within the industry, is there any data out there showing the demographic of the actual advisors? Because I would think that if they are falling into the millennial audience, they may kind of be leaning a little bit stronger into these kinds of assets. Yeah, there are a lot of advisors that are leaning into that. So like this, this kind of gets a little bit out of my wheelhouse. We don't have a lot of the advisor data because most of that is like survey data. There are a lot of really good sources that get into that and we'll use those other sources and let me try to figure out what's going on. But for the most part, a lot of the advisors are much older crowd that aren't really interested in this. That said, if you have a client and you're older and the client says they want exposure to this, this is the way that they're going to do it, right? They're not going to open a Coinbase account for them. They're going to go through and just buy this ETF if it's allowed, even allowed. There's a process that could take one few months or two, three years where these platforms have to get the okay from their risk metric teams and compliance teams to actually be even allow advisors or anyone to brokers to even buy these things for their clients. So who knows how long that could take. You mentioned Grayscale obviously kind of being a potential leader, I guess, going out of the gate. What is the next step for them? Obviously, they've had a much further advancement, but why not, why are we not seeing this just going out as a listed ETF right now? Yeah, that's a good question. I don't actually know. The real answer is like they won their court case, right? And there's likely a conversation that's happening between the SEC and Grayscale. Grayscale saying, probably pushing the argument that, look, the deadlines and the statutes say if there is no issued order here, then all of a sudden we're approved. And your order was vacated and that timeframe means we are de facto approved, which that's a legal framework that's unlikely to actually ever happen in the real world, but that's probably what they're saying to the SEC. I'm assuming the SEC was saying, no, you're going to restart and refile this whole process, which is a 240 -day process to go through this and then we'll talk. And then I'm sure there's some like haggling going back and forth. We'll make a deal. We'll refile if we get X number of days, like you guarantee we're going to give us an answer or maybe even just the SEC is telling them we're going to give you an answer on what's going to happen in the next 30 days. We don't know. It's completely quiet. I thought we would have had an answer to like what the next steps are and what's happening last week, the last week or the week before. So I was like thinking by last Friday, we'd have an idea of what's going to go on. And I think I actually tweeted this out. I was like, we have nothing. They're completely quiet. So we're entering a zone right now starting tomorrow where theoretically they could start approving some of these things. Obviously, I'm not saying that that's what's going to happen, but like up and tomorrow is the first date that it could theoretically happen in the last of the next few months. All right. So with that being the case right now, I know you and Eric have kind of looking have been doing these percentage of probability ranges by end of year. Where are you guys at now on this? We're still at 75 percent by the end of the year, but we think basically one thing that goes into all this is we think the SEC is going to try to allow most, if not all of them to launch on the same day. They're not going to play kingmaker. They played kingmaker with Bitto, which is the pro shares Bitcoin futures ETF, got a billion and a half or over a billion in two days dominate. They have 96 percent of the assets, 96 percent of the volume. They utterly dominate. I don't think they don't want to do that again. So I think the SEC is going to try to find these like angles and areas where they can allow a whole bunch to launch at the same time. And like I said, one of those one of those like time periods starts tomorrow and goes through like roughly the 17th, maybe the 21st, depending on with all these other filings. But if you include GBTC, there's 12 active applications right now in front of the SEC. So the SEC might have to figure out a way to do this. So like I said, November could happen. There's also a period in December. Our view is that the final deadline for ARK and 21 shares is January 10th. And I just don't think if they deny then by that January 10th deadline, if they wait all the way up until that deadline, which they don't have to, they can go very early if they want to. We saw that in September. They went months early in some of these cases. They will approve by January 10th is our view. We're at 90 percent on that now. That said, if they deny at that time period, it's unlikely that they're going to deny ARK in January and then approve everything else in March, which is when BlackRock and all these other issuers are due. So we'll cross that bridge when we get to it. But we think we're at 75 percent this year. I think they could try to get it done just like before the Christmas and New Year holidays. So it's kind of a tight squeeze to fit it in like right after New Year's and before that January 10th deadline, unless they have everything ready to go. And again, the next like opening where we could see like a wave of approvals is later this week, potentially into next week.
A highlight from Wyre: Another crypto payment processor involved in fraud
"Welcome back, everyone. I am Cas Pianci. I'm joined, as usual, by my partner in crime. We've already recorded an episode today, so we're just going to jump right into it. We're going to talk about a company called Wire. Wire spelled W -Y -R -E, weird company, wound down in June of this past year. But yeah, I want Bennett to kind of walk us through this. He wanted to record an episode about this. And I think it is, once you delve into the weeds of it a bit, it's pretty fascinating. Wire is a cryptocurrency payment processor, one of the most common targets of our eye around this channel. And it was, like many cryptocurrency payment processors, seeming to do things a little unusually. And part of this story, the beginning of this story in my mind, involves Ryan Breslow, who I've made a couple videos about on this channel, but we've never done a full episode on him because, frankly, he's not that important. Ryan Breslow has a couple of different companies. One was called Eco. Eco was a company that said it could earn its users yield, and it claimed to do this by lending to people like Goldman Sachs and Fidelity, but was actually lending to people like Wire and BlockFi. And so that's how Eco was making its yield for its customers. That was a Ryan Breslow company, but so was Bolt, the one -click payments company that at one point was valued at like $11 billion or something crazy before a New York Times investigation revealed that they had misrepresented what they were able to do to people in order to get them to sign and then misrepresented the nature of those relationships in order to get other people to sign. Before Bolt was exposed for that, they put in a $1 .5 billion offer for Wire, making it at the time one of the most valuable cryptocurrency acquisitions of all time. What makes this even stranger is that this acquisition was announced in April of 2022. One month before that, in March of 2022, Ryan's other company, Eco, had notified users that they were moving off of Wire and on to Prime Trust. So one company moves off in March, April they announce they're going to buy the company, and even more interesting, Eco didn't actually get all their funds moved off until the end of May. Shortly after that, in September, it's announced that the deal's not going to happen. Bolt backs away, and a couple months after that, very end of the year, December beginning of January, Wire announces they're going to be scaling back operations and laying people off after this deal blew up. And that's like the first phase of Wire, right? It's a cryptocurrency payment processor doing what cryptocurrency payment processors do, making risky loans, throwing funds around into DeFi protocols, announcing acquisitions that never actually happen. It's a classic crypto payment processor. So when I go to Wire, their website, which is still up, it says, Wire is winding down and it talks about what they did and how they're ending. And they basically, it seems like they tried to do this in a way that allowed people to get their funds off of the payment processor in time. I don't know if you know anything more about that than I do. Funny enough, I'm like, Bolt is still around though. And this is Ryan, that's still Ryan Breslow's company, right? We didn't even get into all of Ryan Breslow's fuck ups, right? Like he had the movement Dow that he gave away to like a known fraudster that was separate from like his movement not for profit that ended up like embroiled in some other scandal. We've got some articles we'll link in the description and there's some videos we've made on this channel about it, but like Ryan Breslow's whole like group of companies is a fucking mess. I'm looking through his career and just some of his stuff in general. First of all, this guy is 29 years old. He's younger than me. And 29 is very, very young crypto pharmaceutical startup, the movement, a dance nonprofit. I am confused about this guy's entire life. Surprise went to Stanford. Gosh, I'm all over the place here just because I'm like, wow, so eco didn't work out. That's gone, right? Eco still has a website and they're still tweeting. And they still have a token that's down, oh, down 70%. Remember, there's two tokens, right? There's eco and there's ecoX. What does ecoX do? Well, that's the deflationary supply token serving as the governance asset that's used to secure applications on the eco network, of course. It's deflationary. Why is it down 88 %? It's not deflationary enough? I feel like this is so similar to our discussion about Terra Luna, man. We're not going after Ryan Breslow's stupidity today. They're all interconnected, wire, bolt, eco, love, whatever the fuck these are. And they're all doing poorly. They're all stupid. How much money was going through wire? There's some answers to that I'll get to, not as much as you might be thinking. At the very beginning of 2022, wire announces they're scaling back operations and doing these layoffs. And then on January 7th, wire announces that they're going to be changing withdrawals, limiting how much you can withdraw. You can only withdraw up to 90 % plus other daily limits. Five days later, though, things get better when wire announces that they have received financing from a strategic partner that will allow them to continue their normal course of operations. And this is always good news when crypto companies get strategic financing from undisclosed partners. That takes us into the Binance US era of wire. Binance US, in the beginning of 2022, was using Prime Trust as their principal payment processor. They started switching off of Prime Trust, and by May 25th, 2023, had much of their funds stored with wire.
A highlight from Weekly News Block: NYT Finally Gets Inflation? Cost of Living Crushing Gen Z, Trillion-Dollar Budget Deficits, Vanguard Won't Join Spot Bitcoin ETF Race, SBF Guilty of All Charges
"Welcome to the CoinStories news block. I'm Natalie Brunell and in the span of just 10 minutes, roughly the same time it takes to mine a new Bitcoin block, I'll provide you with concise, insightful updates on Bitcoin and the global financial landscape so you're well informed on the week's top stories. Everything you need to know in one place, in one block. Let's go. This week, something caught my eye in a New York Times article. The Times seems to finally recognize what we all know and feel. Prices are still stubbornly high, even though they say inflation is down. The article highlighted how prices skyrocketed since President Biden took office. The price of bacon is up 21%, the price of coffee beans up 33%, and the price of gasoline is up a whopping 73%. Here's a key line in the piece. It reads, quote, Yes, inflation has fallen sharply this year, but most prices have not fallen. Only the rate of increase has. Now this seems simple, but it's critical. A lot of people out there think inflation coming down means prices will return to where they used to be, but that's just not the case. This concept of how the inflation rate has declined but not prices themselves is also crucial to understanding why inflation is often referred to as a hidden tax. So when central bankers say that inflation has come down, what they really mean to say is the rate at which we are devaluing your money is slower than before. It's atypical to see this kind of straight talk coming from the New York Times. You know, they usually publish pieces by folks like Paul Krugman, who just last month gaslit the world yet again by declaring the war on inflation is over. That is, as long as you exclude used cars, food, energy, and shelter. You know, basically everything people need. CPI today is still eating away at our paychecks at a rate of nearly 4 % instead of more than 8 % at this time last year. But either way, our paychecks are losing value, making it harder to afford the things we need, and squeezing our ability to save. This is likely one reason why younger generations are not even thinking about long -term savings anymore. A recent survey from Intuit found that Gen Z is all about soft saving. Soft saving means preferring to spend and live in the moment instead of prioritizing saving for the future. So what was the main reason cited for the new soft saving trend? You guessed it. Inflation. More than half of the respondents said that the high cost of living is a barrier to their long -term financial success, and two -thirds of them said they wouldn't have enough for retirement anyways, so what's the point? Why save? Now this survey shed some light on that underlying sense of hopelessness that younger generations feel today when it comes to their finances. They no longer feel like they can save for their futures, and instead of planning for important milestones like buying a home, starting a family, or retirement, they are instead deciding to spend on experiences, anything to make them feel a little bit better about their lives. I actually talked about this in my most recent episode with Carla and Walker, aka The Crypto Couple. This is precisely why having a money that can't be debased, like Bitcoin, is so important. It can bring hope for a generation that increasingly feels like the rising cost of living is making their financial goals unreachable. In other words, Bitcoin can fix this. As Greg Foss often says, Bitcoin is for the kids. Hopefully these younger generations do get some relief soon, but unfortunately it doesn't seem likely given that the government can't stop spending. A recent Treasury report says the government is looking to borrow another $1 .6 trillion over the next six months alone. They're issuing more debt to spend more money that we don't have. Interesting enough, the Treasury Borrowing and Advisory Committee published a report that recognized some of the risks of continuing to borrow trillions of dollars. It basically lays out the dreaded debt spiral that James Lavish explained in detail in an interview I did with him earlier this year. So to summarize it, the Treasury is flooding the bond market with new supply, which is making interest rates on the bonds rise. The higher the rates, the more we have to pay back, and that's a big problem given the huge mountain of debt that we have. If interest rates keep rising, then that's more money the government has to spend to service the debt, which increases the amount of money they have to borrow even more, which could lead to more inflation, which leads to higher rates, and on and on it goes. Now for now, it seems to be business as usual, but we know it's not sustainable over the long term. To hear the Treasury recognizing these risks shows they are well aware of the debt spiral problem. And the solution? Well, they can either choose to stop spending and risk a financial crisis given the amount of debt in the system, or they can choose to try to print their way out of it. You know I've got my bets on which option they'll go with. If the government continues to print more money, then investors will need to find assets that are scarce and resistant to inflation, like Bitcoin, and a spot ETF Bitcoin approval would make it more accessible than ever before. Many firms like BlackRock, Fidelity, ARK Invest, they're vying to become the first spot Bitcoin ETF to hit the US market, and they all currently are awaiting SEC approval. But one firm that isn't throwing its hat in the ring is Vanguard, the second largest asset management firm in the country. Vanguard CEO Tim Buckley made headlines over the weekend when he said Vanguard won't join the Bitcoin ETF race, saying quote, Vanguard focuses on asset classes with an intrinsic value and capable to generate cash flows like equities and bonds. With all due respect, Mr. Buckley, Bitcoin's intrinsic value is linked to the properties that make it a superior form of money. It's scarcity, portability, divisibility. Yes, it doesn't offer a yield, because just like gold, if someone holds it, it doesn't have any counter party risk. If Vanguard is only in the business of cash flowing assets, then it makes perfect sense for why they wouldn't be interested in offering a spot Bitcoin ETF. All eyes now are on the January 10th deadline when the SEC needs to make a decision on ARK Invest's ETF application. But a lot of people are speculating that the real delay has to do with the legal issues surrounding Grayscale and its parent company DCG. Maybe we'll go into that another week. But there are definitely some out there wondering if BlackRock plans to buy Grayscale and seed its eventual ETF with the more than 600 ,000 Bitcoins in the trust. To be continued. Switching gears now to the courtroom. The verdict is in on Sam Bankman -Fried, and as you probably know by now, he was found guilty on all seven counts. The so -called trial of the century has come to a close. It marks the end of the stunning collapse of FTX, which saw billions of dollars stolen from millions of victims in one of the largest financial frauds in history. For Bitcoiners, the verdict represents a moment of cleansing and the industry maturing as it moves forward on more stable ground. Michael Saylor explained this idea well in a recent Bloomberg interview. I think it's an important milestone in the growth and the maturation of the industry. The crypto industry has been plagued by inexperienced entrepreneurs like Sam, unreliable custodians like FTX, incompetent creditors, a dozen went bankrupt in the last year or two, unscrupulous promoters. And their failure is a necessary rite of passage for an industry that's going to lead to a new, more stable, more scalable ecosystem that will be based on Bitcoin. Public companies like Block, MicroStrategy, Marathon, a dozen Bitcoin miners that are public, institutional money managers like Fidelity and BlackRock, and regulated banks when they eventually become custodians. The offshore crypto exchanges, the stablecoins, the crypto tokens, the DeFi projects, they're going to shrink, fade into background and decouple from mainstream and institutional digital assets marketplace that will be based on Bitcoin. The FTX case highlighted the difference between Bitcoin and crypto. This fraud was only able to grow to the size that it did because SPF could print FTT tokens out of thin air. No one can do that with Bitcoin because no one can control the network or manipulate it. That's what makes it so different. And that's why criminals like SPF don't like it so much. Miller Value Partners portfolio manager Bill Miller IV echoed this sentiment in another interview. Bitcoin is very different from crypto. So crypto was convicted yesterday. Bitcoin is still going very, very strong. The network's as strong as it's ever been. There's more users than there's ever been. So we continue to see very positive trends in Bitcoin, not so much in crypto. Bill isn't wrong either. Bitcoin's hash rate just reached a new all -time high last Saturday. The network's security has never been stronger. As crypto has faltered, Bitcoin has strengthened. For too long, Bitcoin's reputation has been tarnished by scams and frauds littered throughout the broader cryptocurrency industry. US Attorney Damian Williams, the prosecutor in the FTX case, delivered a strong message to the crypto space after the conviction. He said, quote, this case is also a warning to every fraudster who thinks they're untouchable, that their crimes are too complex for us to catch, that they are too powerful to prosecute, or that they are clever enough to talk their way out of it if caught. Those folks should think again and cut it out. And if they don't, I promise we'll have enough handcuffs for all of them. SPF faces a maximum sentence of 115 years behind bars and his sentencing date is set for March 28th. After this verdict, perhaps scammers might think twice before launching their own token or offshore exchange. Who knows? Maybe more of them will choose to work on Bitcoin instead. A girl can dream. That's it for the news block, your weekly Bitcoin and economic news update. I'm Nathalie Brunel. Make sure you're subscribed to Coin Story so you never miss an episode. This show is for educational purposes and should not be construed as investment advice. Until next time, keep stacking.
A highlight from Fidelity Just Said Bitcoin is Exponential Gold! | SIMPLY OG CLIP
"You can see the distribution of the positive versus the negative returns for Bitcoin is much more positively skewed than it is for silver and gold. And so to me this is why Bitcoin is kind of the new version of gold and silver is because of its convexity. It's like a more convex version of gold because of its network effects and its increased scarcity that this has become kind of the leader in terms of hedging against monetary inflation. Getting pretty hard to deny that the Bitcoin bull has arrived. And that was Fidelity's global macro director Jurien Timmer dropping a bombshell on the Bitcoin versus gold debate. And he didn't stop there. He said Bitcoin is in its own stratosphere and projects that possibly Bitcoin could hit 700k this cycle. Is he insane? I don't know. We're getting a lot to cover. Let's get it. So Jurien Timmer, the global macro director of Fidelity Investments said that although often compared to gold, Bitcoin can increase in value faster than the yellow shiny rock. Quote, in my view Bitcoin is a commodity currency that aspires to be a store of value and hedge against monetary debasement. Now we've heard digital gold but Timmer says I think of it as exponential gold. Now let's see why. Alright, let's go ahead and run through Timmer's thread here. Bitcoin is volatile but its scarcity and adoption curve create potential for it to be a high powered hedge against monetary shenanigans. I think of it as exponential gold. This rally is way beyond the rumor. I think the rally today is about a flight to quality with all the issues around the Israeli war now. Global terrorism. And I think there's more people running into a flight to quality whether that is in treasuries, gold or crypto depending on how you think about it. And I believe crypto will play that type of role as a flight to quality. Next he gets into Bitcoin's adoption. One of the attributes of Bitcoin is that it's a network asset and as such its adoption curve has followed the typical S curve shape. We've seen many of these throughout history but man that Bitcoin line is pretty steep. So where is Bitcoin along the S curve? A network asset value driven by its adoption so the slope of that curve does matter. As we know the supply of Bitcoin is already fixed, set, its monetary schedule is known. The only variable then to add in is demand. And Timmer may echo some of us. When we first went down the Bitcoin rabbit hole its adoption curve which he defines as the number of non -zero addresses was very steep. It resembled the S curve for mobile phones during the 1980s and 90s also echoing Michael Saylor who called that one and was one of the first ones on Wall Street to get in other than Jerry and Timmer because Fidelity got involved in 2015 even been mining as far back as such. So let's get into more of what Timmer was talking about. Bitcoin is exponential gold but what makes it valuable? Well monetary debasement. Bitcoin was designed to be the safe haven. Now more into Timmer's projections as he hints at a bullish Bitcoin future. If history rhymes, say it followed 2011 and 2013 trends, he believes this could catapult Bitcoin to 700k. A more modest outlook mirroring 2017 suggests a rise to 200 -300k. We talked about it yesterday. We kind of talk about it all the time but there appears to be an awakening to the understanding that there is Bitcoin and then there is everything else from Larry Fink and we got more of that coming. Michael Saylor, this FTX debacle was a great advertisement for why Bitcoin and not crypto but right here and this is again Jerry and Timmer. He created this risk reward chart for investment assets and the report stated that Bitcoin's risk reward is in a different universe and they're not wrong. Think about FTX. FTX is creating its own token. It was not a defi. It wasn't a ledger that was open to the world. It was a closed ledger. It was not distributed. So the whole foundation of what crypto is is supposed to be a distributed ledger that is across the system. I actually believe this technology is going to be very important. Man, it's very interesting. Take a look at the past couple days of Simply Bitcoin Live and yesterday's episode, kind of getting into this, but everyone is flying to quality, flying to safety but what are they fleeing from? And that is essential and it is the insane economic damage that has been caused by central planners, the Fed and inept politicians for way too long and Bitcoin is here to rebalance the scales and give that power back to the people. Really? Yes. I'm encouraged by how many people are focusing on it. I'm encouraged about the narrative but I don't believe we should think about crypto as a substitute of currency but I am fascinated by it as an asset class. Specifically on Bitcoin, we're a believer in digitization of products and we do believe it could revolutionize finance. It's digitizing gold in many ways as a hedge against inflation, a hedge against the devaluation of your currency. Bitcoin is an international asset and so it can represent an asset that people can play as an alternative. The foundation of BlackRock is about hope. The floodgates institutional are about to open and it is epic that we've had the opportunity to front -run these people. But be sure to self -custody your Bitcoin, get them off exchanges and if you need any help using Bitcoin best practices or have questions on what wallets, what nodes, things of that nature, well, we got just the guys to get you started. As your dedicated Bitcoin IT team, the Bitcoin way is here to guide you from start to finish on your journey to properly self -custody your Bitcoin. What's more, they've recently introduced 100 % privacy -focused collaborative custody services where you benefit from advanced multi -sig security, inheritance planning and much more while remaining 100 % in control. Book a free 30 -minute call to get started using that link below. So much major bullish news coming out the past few weeks and it looks like Vanguard and VanEck and BlackRock are kind of projecting the ETF to be approved by the end of this month. So buckle up, guys. Make sure to like, subscribe, share that sound money gospel. We got some more fun stuff coming your way this weekend. So make sure to set those notifications and follow us on Twitter where we're getting all the breaking news out there. Follow all things simply and we will be your guide through the peaceful Bitcoin revolution. I'll catch you all tomorrow. Peace.
A highlight from 1451: How Much Will 1 Bitcoin be Worth AFTER BlackRock ETF?
"In today's show, I'll be breaking down the latest Bitcoin technical analysis. And this just in, a new record Bitcoin hash rate has been achieved of 450 quintillion exahashes per second. And quoting the high priest, Max Keiser, Bitcoin is self -aware and fighting AI on behalf of humanity. The hash precedes the price. The hash adjusted price is close to $400 ,000 per coin. Send it and let's go. Also in today's show, Bloomberg analyst says this crypto sector's market cap can explode by a whopping 3900 percent. Also, major asset manager makes a flattering comparison of Bitcoin. And we talk about fidelity, four and a half trillion of assets under management. Also in today's show, BRICS currency is almost ready and will be much more attractive than the US dollar, the pound and the euro, according to an ex -Russian minister. Also in today's show, we'll be discussing Bitcoin prime to explode by over 400 percent to $180 ,000, according to top crypto analysts. I'll be breaking down his timeline. We're also going to be discussing what will the Bitcoin price look like after the Bitcoin halving and the Bitcoin ETF in 2024. And I think these Bitcoin price predictions are going to blow your mind. We'll also be taking a look at the overall crypto market. All this plus so much more in today's show.
A highlight from Sam Bankman-Fried Found Guilty on All 7 Counts | EP 860
"You It's all going to zero against Bitcoin. It's going up forever Against Bitcoin you're against freedom Yo, good morning everybody Welcome to simply Bitcoin is Friday, November 3rd in the year 2023 So you can tell from the title crazy crazy stuff happening everywhere today on the Twitter verse of course We will be covering Sam Beckman freed found guilty on all seven counts and of course you guys should know if you're if you're Usually talk about all corners again. It is still the very beginning of the YouTube show So we will use the nomenclature all corners for the time being because it waters down our message We don't ever really want to talk about all coins because we believe it is Bitcoin not all coins there is Bitcoin and then there's everything else and The point of this show is to try to separate Bitcoin from everything else But for better or worse guys, the average person has had SPF on their radar I even was telling rustin yesterday one of my friends. I haven't talked to him in a while. He Was asking me what I'm doing lately. I told him simply Bitcoin and His follow -up question was what is your thoughts on this SPF guy and I'm like, oh my goodness. Here we go My parents have been talking about him. Yeah, all the public media has been talking about him and Finally I guess justice may have caught up with him welcome to law SPF and You know, you can't just commit fraud out there in the name of all coins and and doing good by the people You know, it is what it is There are laws in this country and it seems that SPF has been found guilty on all seven counts We will be talking about that. We got a bunch of clips We will be kind of trolling it out a little bit as well Rustin's gonna give you guys all of the signal on that one in the new segment and in the numbers We were talking about it yesterday. We are seeing At the current stage of the Bitcoin bull market, maybe the end of the crab market the very end tail end of a bear market We're gonna cover for you guys where we are in the cycle and we got a solid clip from Michael sailor at his microstrategy earnings call Basically saying what we've been saying all year long here that people are looking for alternatives. We are seeing public consciousness raised Public attention raised in regards to Bitcoin and what that means moving forward So we'll be talking about that in the numbers and the culture I mentioned yesterday I saw this thread and I really enjoyed it and it was on black rock and Bitcoin So I'm gonna cover that I know we all have the view of F black rock Don't really like black rock obviously for obvious reasons, but I think They may be incentivized to play along with the rules I'm even gonna bring up the white paper and the incentives portion of the white paper which maybe Satoshi was right all along and this is why we are doing what we're doing because if black rock can take down Bitcoin Then what are we really doing here? And then actually actually before I move on I'm not sure if you guys saw this morning, but shouts out to our brothers over at Bitcoin magazine apparently the Federal Reserve is suing them for Basically making a parody t -shirt of the Fed now system and They are saying that they are infringing on their copyright. Absolutely incredible We do not want to associate ourselves with Fed now system and the boys over at Bitcoin magazine, I guess are over the target This is more Credence to the idea of then they fight you stage Absolutely incredible stuff. We will get into that a little bit at towards the end of the news segment, but welcome to simply Bitcoin We are your number one source for the peaceful back Bitcoin revolution We cover breaking news culture and of course mimetic warfare We bring on big corners from all around the world and the biggest names to the everyday big corner We got them all and we will be your guide through Separation of money and state of course. I'm not alone. I got my boy rust in here And I already know that we're gonna get a little crazy. This is the Friday show things should get a little Light -hearted. I I saw a little bit of what rustin has in store for you guys and just gonna forewarn you We will be giving you the signal but we are gonna troll it out a little bit. I'm gonna be honest Well, we're gonna work. Oh, yeah Today we're gonna Oh, I'm stoked up. I'm so stoked out there. You have to happy to be here We get a lot of good news, apparently maybe the system kind of works but not really So we'll dive into that and see what was left out of the trial and the charges. It's very interesting How the media treated this guy leading up to it all throughout the whole thing. They love this guy. He came out of nowhere He looked like he lived under an overpass and and then he was there darling I we got a very good clip of what what's his name? Oh leery what stop listening to these people? They are absolute morons and I think we're coming to a conclusion. Maybe the CDC will pick this up but maybe there may be a connection between degenerative mental illness and Prolonged use of shit coins. So we're gonna dive into that and see if we can get to Bottom of it and also we are way over the target Bitcoin news in the Fed now, we got some good nuggets for that, too Love to see it guys as we always say, you know, the coin is peaceful revolution and memes are artillery ridicule is a powerful tool in our toolbox and hey guys, it is working and Actually before we go in there It just it's absolutely incredible that people at the Federal Reserve Are are digesting Bitcoin content like we're winning absolutely winning so hard. It's incredible But I want to know how many of them have one of those shirts Actually talking with my boy Joe did not many have those shirts at all so Streisand effect in real time. We'll see. We'll see. Anyways guys. We got a lot to talk about. Let's get into this The Bitcoin numbers is your Bitcoin in cold storage really secure is your seed phrase Really secure stamp seeds do -it -yourself kit has everything you need to hammer your seed words into commercial grade Titanium plates instead of just writing them on paper Don't store your generational wealth on paper papers prone to water damage fire damage You want to put your generational wealth on one of the strongest metals on planet earth? titanium your words are actually stamped into this metal plate with this hammer and these letter stamps and once your words are in They aren't going anywhere. No risk of the plate breaking apart and pieces falling everywhere Titanium stamp seeds will survive nearly triple the heat produced by a house fire They're also crush proof waterproof non -corrosive and time proof all things that paper is not allowing you to huddle your Bitcoin with peace of Mind for the long haul stamp your seed on stamp seed Alright guys stand the QR code. Make sure your seed phrase is backed up It's not on a piece of paper in your sock drawer Get yourself a stamp seed kit and also actually actually before I forget guys we are so close to hitting our 21k subscriber a Threshold on YouTube. We will be doing a giveaway. I'm guessing probably live on Monday and the mega prize is a stamp seed Full kit we might even throw in a shirt or a hoodie in there. I don't know where work We'll talk about it over the weekend. But one of you guys in the chat that's been hanging out with us all year I wrote my list down you will be getting a stamp seed kit but for everyone else make sure you scan the QR code and you secure your seed phrase in something that will last the test of time anyways, let's get into the numbers guys because Got a lot of talk about anyways My favorite number the block height tick tock next block The only date that matters is the block height and we are currently at eight hundred and fifteen thousand one hundred and thirty -eight The current Bitcoin price is thirty four thousand seven hundred and thirty and actually little side tangent Rustin we got rug pulled yesterday with our clickbait title. Apparently the Bitcoin price dumped on us when we were like Yeah, Bitcoin totally trolled us yesterday. That is a hundred percent pain max pain in regard to the price Anyways, the current Moscow time aka what your Fiat dollars worth aka how much Bitcoin you can buy for a single dollar It's currently at two thousand eight hundred and seventy nine cents per dollar or for you bit maxis out there 287 bits the total percentage of Bitcoin that will ever be issued I repeat ever be issued until the end of time is currently at ninety three point zero one percent the market cap of Bitcoin in fiat terms is at 678 point four billion the realized monetary inflation taking fiat currencies to school is at one point seven four percent and that Will get cut in half it'll go down It's gonna go down in April roughly April the Bitcoin verse gold market cap. Is that five point eleven percent? Barely at five percent of the gold market cap and that is ten trillion dollars guys And you guys are you guys are bearish out there couldn't be me can't relate Anyways, the total public lightning capacity is at five thousand three hundred and six point nine nine BTC The hash rate the last 90 days is at four hundred and fifteen point four exit hatches the pending fees Wow Okay, yesterday was at one point nine today is at three point nine Oh for Bitcoin currently sitting in the mempool that Clark Moody dashboard is reading and then of course blocks to having We're at twenty four thousand eight hundred and sixty two and as of today the having estimate is the mean number April 20th 2024 let's let's hope we mean that into reality anyways guys As we were telling you yesterday We've been covering it constantly on this show the theme of You know yesterday we talked about the flight to quality. We talked about the bond market. We talked about inflation numbers we've talked about corporate press covering Bitcoin in favorable light or rather even in unfavorable light, but it does seem like we are crossing the Rubicon into mainstream consciousness and moving forward if you are in Financial markets financial media you will have to talk about Bitcoin and I say it all the time, you know Look, we're just youtubers. We're just Bitcoiners. We're just everyday Bitcoiners that happen to make a show We just cover what's going on in the world. So We realize that maybe what we say about Bitcoin doesn't hit as hard as when a billionaire rocket scientist Talks about the same things we're talking about or rather maybe we need to wear suits So we seem like we're more authority figures or maybe one day we'll be on the television and then now that will give us some Sense of legitimacy. But anyways, this is another simply Bitcoin. I told you so moment and Sailor is just saying everything we've been saying forever on the show Anyways, you can see this tweet by a swan it goes Michael sailors bullish mainstream awareness seems to be reaching new heights of Bitcoin And this is from today's micro strategy earnings call. So we got a short clip We'll talk about it and then we will move on into the news, but check this out He's saying what we say all the time guys. Love to see it. We're winning constantly winning. So Tune in strap up. It's gonna be a great bull run mainstream awareness Seems to be reaching new heights for Bitcoin we have We have the likes of Larry Fink Referring to it as a flight quality we have Druckenmiller noting that it's a legitimate asset embraced by an entire generation and Lamenting that he doesn't own more of it or own it We have Muhammad al -aryan on television noting that Bitcoin is being viewed now as a safe haven asset We have a lot of coverage of Bitcoin in television On television networks news networks and also through mainstream media that should continue to grow as that coverage increases that combined with increasing availability of Wall Street analyst coverage and new voices emerging in the community like like fidelity with their analysis of Bitcoin all of those new voices and new interest is Driving of education a new generation of investors I think we can expect more of that during the coming 12 months and All of these things together just create a virtual cycle and as they drive Bitcoin awareness they should drive Bitcoin investment and that should drive more news and that should drive more awareness and that should catalyze more and more firms to take an interest in supporting Bitcoin or investing in Bitcoin and Absolutely love to hear it and and remember guys I'm I just thought of this as we were live because I've been using this chart a lot again I'm over here at nakamoto Institute org chefs at the pierre Richard.
A highlight from 1450: I Expect Bitcoin ETF Approval By End of Month
"In today's show, I'll be breaking down the latest Bitcoin technical analysis. Also, Sam Bankman freed. He is found guilty on all seven charges in the FTX fraud trial. Quoting Max Kaiser, tough talk when it comes to the minor league drug Adderall ish corner like SPF, but where's all the bravado when Jamie Diamond gets caught manipulating markets and defrauding the public again or the next crooked Warren Buffett bailout? He makes great point. Also in today's show, Bitcoin to the moon. Send it. I'm going to be sharing with you the top five Bitcoin price predictions for twenty twenty four and beyond. That's what's up. Also, the latest from Cathie Wood of ARK Invest, also a twenty seven hundred percent Bitcoin price explosion is incoming courtesy of one catalyst, according to the BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes. We'll also be talking about breaking news. The Valkyrie CIO expects the spot Bitcoin ETF approval before the end of the month. We'll also be taking a look at the overall crypto market. All this plus so much more in today's show. Yo, what's good, crypto fam? This is first and foremost, a video show. So if you want the full premium experience with video, visit my YouTube channel at CryptoNewsAlerts .net. Again, that's Crypto News Alerts dot net. Welcome, everyone. Today is podcast episode number fourteen hundred and fifty. Can you believe it? I'm your host, JV, and today is November 3rd. Welcome to Moonvember of twenty twenty three. Let's kick off today's show with our market watch as we do each and every day. We got Bitcoin up about a quarter percent, hovering just under thirty five thousand. We have Ether up point three percent trading at eighteen hundred dollars. Cardano, one of the top gainers, up five and a half percent and also XRP barely in the green. And if we are in doubt, they say you need to zoom out. Let's look at the one month. Wow, that's much more sexier, isn't it? Now we have Bitcoin up twenty seven percent for the month. We got ETH up about 10 percent. Solana is up almost 70 percent. Cardano up twenty three percent. XRP up fourteen percent. BNB up seven percent. Personally, I love it when everything in crypto is a winner. It don't get no sexier than that. And look at Chainlink up fifty two percent for the month. Good lord. And check it out. Coin market cap percent in just under one point three trillion with about forty five billion in volume in the past 24 hours. Bitcoin dominance pulled back a little bit, currently at fifty two point seven percent, and the ether dominance in the 16 percentage range for the first time I have ever seen that I could recall. It's currently at sixteen point nine percent as Bitcoin dominance continues to outpace the rest of the market, especially Ethereum. And checking out the top one hundred crypto gainers of the past twenty four hours for chain up fourteen and a half percent trading at three dollars and twenty cent and Oasis Network up twelve percent trading at six point two cents, followed by the trust wallet token up almost twelve percent trading at a dollar twenty three and checking out crypto bubbles so we can see the top gainers for the past week. Massive shout out to Emilio. I appreciate the super chat. Fam, you're way too kind. Much love, much respect. He just said you are amazing. Nah, I think you're amazing. And I appreciate the orange so we can orange pill more mofos and help change the world. Let's freaking go. Much love, fam. But as we can see on the crypto bubbles on your screen, we got a lot of gainers overall. That means the market cap is pumping and a rising tide rises all ships and checking out the crypto greed and fear index. We're currently rated a sixty five in greed. Yesterday was a seventy two last week, a seventy and last month a forty nine, which is neutral. So there you have it, my fam. What's your thoughts on the current Bitcoin price action? Let me know. Are you pumped up for Moomvember? I sure as hell am. Let's dive into our Bitcoin technical analysis for the day. Check out the charts with a Bitcoin price action is likely to go next. Bitcoin broke below thirty five G's baby after the November 2nd Wall Street open, as analysis warned of overheated derivatives. As you know, derivatives are financial tools of financial destruction. Yeah, for real. Now Bitcoin under does the post fed gains. We're currently tinkering just under that thirty five thousand, which is now back at a resistance. The highs had come on the back of the encouraging language from Jay Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, who in a speech suggested the interest rate hikes might soon end. Now, the Fed opted not to change the rates at the latest meeting on the Federal Open Market Committee, which was November 1st quoting their press release. Recent indicators suggest the economic activity expanded at a strong pace. In the third quarter, job gains have moderated since earlier in the year, but remain strong and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated and accompanying press release stated. They also shared here that the U .S. banking system is sound and resilient. Sure it is. Tighter financial and credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring and inflation. The extent of these effects remain uncertain. The committee remains highly attentive to inflation risk. We all know they're full of ish, right, to say the least. And quoting crypto analyst, Bitcoin breaks out, reaches a new yearly high, which is currently just shy of 36 G's. Now, not a massive breakout, but as long as we say above 34 .8, which we currently are, the next target is 36 .5 to 37 ,000. And the altcoins will follow after, which is typically what seems to go down. Now, down over a thousand from its highs. Bitcoin was worrying some with derivative markets, particularly in the focus, quoting Charles Edwards at Capriole Investments. All Bitcoin derivatives markets are overheated at present. This captures the perps, futures and options. Stay safe out there. And also, we have reacting popular trader school agreed that arguing it was now the spot market to charge of saving the Bitcoin price strength, as he shares here, something to be aware of when sizing up positions currently, when derivatives get hot. This puts increasing focus on spot market to support the current prices and the trend. That's right. In his own analysis, we also had material indicators concluding caution should be applied to the current Bitcoin trading environment, meaning expect more volatility ahead and uploading the snapshot of liquidity on the Bitcoin order book for the largest global exchange, Binance. It warned support levels were apt to disappear quickly. A form of a rug pull. So you have been warned. Newcomer support gaining liquidity at this time lay at both 34 and 33 .5. So there you have it, fam. Again, how many of you are currently bullish on that? King crypto. And with that being shared, now let's discuss our next story of the day. The latest from Michael Saylor. He was recently interviewed on the news and shared some very positive sentiment in the Bitcoin market. Also, he has been a dollar cost averaging and stacking stats. This week, the Bitcoin price came within a hair of thirty six. I think we hit like thirty five nine ninety during our watch party before abruptly reversing and correcting to thirty four to fifty. But after nearly a 30 percent run over the past month, it is natural for the price to cool off as some traders take profit and market participants evaluate whether or not the catalyst for the rally remain valid. Now, despite the intraday price action, which saw almost five percent drawdown, a number of analysts remain bullish on Bitcoin naturally, and some expect another gamma squeeze. If the Bitcoin price manages to push through the thirty six three hundred level, we're only like four hundred dollars off of that right now. Just FYI, permables like MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor appear unbothered by the whipsaw price action. And on November 1st, MicroStrategy announced the October purchase of one hundred and fifty five more Bitcoin for five point three million. As the outlines here in October, MicroStrategy acquired additional one hundred and fifty five BTC for five point three million bucks, now holding one hundred and fifty eight thousand four hundred BTC like, whoa, and what's the most mind boggling? Saylor didn't even get into Bitcoin until twenty twenty. So it goes to show you someone can come here in twenty twenty three and become an even bigger whale than Michael Saylor. In fact, the likes of the Black Rocks of the world put Michael Saylor to shame because we're talking about mega mega mega whales on a massive scale. And when asked about the upcoming Bitcoin having during an interview on Squawk Box, here's what he had to share. Most of the natural sellers of Bitcoin in the market right now are Bitcoin miners and they have to sell to cover their electricity bills and capital costs and retire their debt. That's about a billion dollars per month worth of selling into the market. The protocol forces that to be cut in half as of next April or late April. And he also says, so you're going to see twelve billion bucks of natural selling per year converted to six billion of natural selling a year and at the same time as things like the spot ETFs increase the demand for Bitcoin. So that's why all of us are fairly bullish over the next 12 months. How many of you are bullish? Let me know. Demand is going to increase and supply is going to contract. And this is fairly unprecedented in the history of Wall Street. That's what's up now is a pretty ideal entry point for Bitcoin, according to Saylor. Also, he was recently interviewed and I actually transcribed this video clip when he was speaking on Squawk on the street. And I feel this is very relevant. Here's what Saylor says for the industry to move to the next level. We need to migrate to adult supervision. We're going to need the big banks to become the crypto custodians. We're going to need Wall Street to take a role and we need to rationalize away from the one hundred thousand crypto tokens. You know, the yo yo coins that people are manipulating to Bitcoin. Bitcoin is an asset without an issuer. It is the one universally recognized protocol that is a commodity in the space. And so when banks on Wall Street and responsible custodians are managing Bitcoin and the industry takes its eyes away from all the shiny little tokens that have distracted and demolish shareholder value, I think the industry moves to the next level and we 10x from here. Now, what's another 10x from the current price action we're talking about roughly? What is that? Three hundred and fifty thousand dollars per BTC. Send it and let's frickin go. Also quoting him here, I think the liabilities or the early crypto cowboys, the crypto tokens, which are unregistered securities, the unreliable crypto custodians for the industry to move to the next level. We're going to need to migrate to adult super vision. And I shared with you the rest of that quote. So there you have it. Let me know if you agree or disagree with the one and only giga Chad Michael Saylor. Next story of the day. This is breaking news. SBF has been found guilty in all seven fraudulent charges. Yeah, this is wild. Yeah, here we go. I'm going to read all this to you. Former FTX CEO Sam Bankman Freed was found guilty of all seven charges by a jury in his criminal trial in New York after about four hours of deliberations, meaning it didn't take long. Bankman Freed was found guilty of two counts of wire fraud, two counts of wire fraud conspiracy, one count of securities fraud, one count of commodities fraud conspiracy and one count of money laundering conspiracy. Good Lord. That's a lot of charges and it's just getting started. He'll be back in court in March to continue with some more charges to probably get guilty of. We'll return to the court for sentences by New York District Judge Lewis Kaplan March 28th. So that's the date is right before the having. Government prosecutors will recommend a sentence, but Judge Kaplan will have the final say. Now, Bankman Freed's crimes each carry a maximum sentence of between five and 20 years in prison with the wire fraud, wire fraud conspiracy and money laundering conspiracy carrying a maximum of 20 years sentence in a press conference outside the court, the New York Southern District U .S. Attorney Damian Williams called Bankman Freed's crimes a multibillion dollar scheme designed to make him the king of crypto, right? The Michael Jordan of crypto, the Warren Buffett of crypto and of one the biggest financial frauds in American history, Bankman Freed's attorney Mark Cohen said in a statement, we respect the jury's decision, but we are very disappointed with the result. Naturally, Mr. Bankman Freed maintains his innocence and will continue to vigorously fight the charges against him. Anyone here in the chat. We have over 200 people in the live. Anyone believe he is innocent? I am just curious if there's any outliers out there. Anyways, other key FTF execs, including former Alameda CEO Caroline Ellison, FTX co -founder Gary Wang and former engineering head Nishad Singh have all pleaded guilty to various charges and work with the government to testify against Bankman Freed in the five week trial. Now, Bankman Freed had pleaded not guilty to all the charges. And during his trial, he took the stand to maintain his innocence against the best wishes of his lawyers who told him to shut the what up, just saying, and marking the FTX November 2022 collapse as a number of big mistakes I made. He denied any wrongdoing in the FTX relationship with Alameda, attempting to distance himself from key decisions, which we all know is not true, according to the testimonies of their execs, Bankman Freed pinned the blame on Gary Wang for creating a function that allowed Alameda to trade funds on FTX that it didn't have and claimed he wasn't entirely sure what happened. Oh, I don't know what happened with Alameda's line of credit, which ballooned to billions in the collapsing crypto market of 2022. In his testimony, he also blamed Caroline Ellison for not focusing on risk management. How are you going to blame your ex? That's just why. Anyways, he didn't believe he defrauded FTX customers by taking over eight billion worth of their funds. Instead, he framed it as Alameda just borrowing from the exchange. Yeah, borrowing from investors without their permission is called stealing. I just wanted to point that one out. Now, Max Kaiser responded to this attorney who spoke out and he said, this is tough talk when it comes to the minor league, the drug Adderall ish coiner like SPF, but where's all the bravado when Jamie, the tapeworm diamond, the best the CEO, JP Morgan Chase, gets caught manipulating markets and defrauding the public again or the next crooked Warren Buffett bailout? You talk a good game, but you're no different than SPF. And I think Max makes some excellent points. The big dogs get away with this all the time, of course, but clearly there's levels to this ish, if you know what I mean. Now, what are your thoughts surrounding this case? How do you think this will likely continue to play out in March as they continue with the court trial facing more charges he's up against? Let me know, fam. I appreciate that. I got some very bullish predictions to share with you. In fact, I'm going to be sharing with you the top five Bitcoin price predictions for twenty, twenty four and beyond. Bitcoin continues to circle its highest levels in 18 months. Again, the annual high for the year is currently almost thirty six thousand dollars, but let's dive right into the predictions. First and foremost, Matrix Port predicts forty five thousand within two months. So two months from November would mean January. I could definitely see Bitcoin hitting forty, fifty thousand easy peasy before the halving. But let me know your thoughts. Now, that prediction came from Matrix Port, the crypto trading firm founded by Jihan Wu, himself a founder, a Bitcoin mining giant Bitmain in a blog post in late October. Matrix Port doubled down on a forty five thousand year end price targets. That's the Christmas target. Let's go, Santa, which is initially revealed in January. It was based on a handful of in -house models with Matrix Port also successfully predicting Bitcoin's October gains. Quitting them here, Bitcoin is breaking above the July thirty one five resistance showing that forty five is achievable by the year's end. And again, I think that's a very doable target. But let me know your thoughts. The next prediction comes from Bitcoin. They say new all time high pre halving. I also agree with that, especially if we get the ETF approval. I would anticipate above and beyond sixty nine thousand before the April twenty twenty four halving, but that's only if you know what I mean. We'll see how this plays out. The halving is a watershed moment. We all know the blocks of subsidies get cut in half for the miners in September. Bitcoin stated Bitcoin would surpass its current sixty nine thousand peak before April of twenty twenty four. Now they shared here, no, Bitcoin is not going to top before the halving. Yes, it's going to reach a new all time high before the halving. No, Bitcoin is not going to one hundred and sixty G's because the magnitude of every pullback is large. This means it'll peak after the halving in twenty twenty four. And yes, the target price is around two hundred and fifty thousand dollars. I love that. That's right in alignment with Max Keiser's short term target of two hundred and twenty thousand. Now, they also shared this chart. Both the all time high and the post halving two hundred and fifty thousand target came courtesy of the Elliott Wave theory charting, which we cover commonly here in the show with Bitcoin mimicking the behavior from the previous cycles. And you can see their estimation of how the Bitcoin price is likely to rise is coming directly from Bitcoin. Now, Bitcoin did, however, make room for a total of four pullbacks. As outlined in this chart, you can see one, two, three, four. Before we hit the peak at five, quoting them here, there will be one pullback before breaking to a new all time high, followed by another pullback at around one hundred and twenty five thousand. Additionally, there will be two more pullbacks after the halving, which are not demonstrated here. Now for the next one, three Bitcoin price models, one hundred and thirty thousand dollar target zone. That's right. Let's freaking go. Quoting CryptoCon here, I'm prepared for the lower prices, but the stars are aligning at one hundred and thirty for the Bitcoin this cycle. And the concept also hinges on the halving events and the next peak should come around four years after the sixty nine thousand dollar move in November of twenty twenty one. We all know everything is cyclical and Bitcoin every four years driven by the halving. Now the one million dollar question. How about a one million dollar Bitcoin price target leads us to Kathy Wood of ARK Invest, the CEO and chief investment officer, has joined former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes in doubling down on her seven figure price prediction when this could happen, understandably up for debate. But changing macroeconomic tides have emboldened what remains a daring Bitcoin price prediction. In October, Hayes maintained that the path to a one million dollar coin was in full effect thanks to the macro reality. Now quoting BlockWorks on the Margin podcast right here, this was shared actually on an interview. If people lose faith in the bond market and this fiat artificial construction we have created over the past 80 to 100 years, this global economy and how it has been structured, if we lose confidence in that, then the amount of money that's going to be looking for an alternative is going to be something that we have never seen before. He shared over in an interview and speaking of Kathy Wood, she was just on Bloomberg and here's what she shared when she was asked, what's a better hedge against inflation? Is it Bitcoin or is it gold? And very boldly she said, Bitcoin hands down, hands down is a hedge against both inflation and deflation. Yes, so is gold, but Bitcoin is digital. And if you look at the incremental demand we are going to see, but gold already has its demand. You know, it happened already, right? Bitcoin is new and institutions are barely involved in the young people would much rather prefer to hold Bitcoin than hold gold preach. So it's interesting that both gold and Bitcoin are hedges against deflation, but Bitcoin has been doing better recently preach and Bitcoin naturally will consider outpacing gold. I think it was Max Kaiser who said for every dollar, the Bitcoin price action increases. I'm sorry for every dollar, the gold price increases expect Bitcoin to go up by over $20 meaning it will continue to outpace gold by a factor of 20. Let me know if you agree or disagree fam. And we spoke about Kathy Wood and her a $1 million price prediction. In fact, she even has a bullish case scenario by the year 2030 of Bitcoin hitting $1 .48 million. Keep that in mind. But now let's discuss Arthur Hayes, the BitMEX founder predicting Bitcoin price to rally 2700 % taken us to $1 million per coin. And then we'll dive into the latest updates with the likelihood of the spot Bitcoin ETF being approved this month in November. According to the major asset manager, here we go. BitMEX co -founder Arthur Hayes is doubling down on a prediction. The Bitcoin is destined to reach the seven figure price. Hayes says that a monetary policy tool known as the yield curve control will act as the catalyst for Bitcoin to reach that 1 million Mark, a gain of around 2 ,700 % from the current level. Send it, let's go. Central banks use the yield curve control to influence the longterm interest rate level by buying longterm bonds as much as possible to prevent the rate from rising above the intended target. And according to Hayes, the entire U S government is enabling a loose monetary policy environment. Even as the fed continues tightening. Now the BitMEX founder first predicted seven figure Bitcoin earlier this year in March in that essay, which I covered here on the show. And at the time, he argued that China's loosening of his monetary policy would trigger Bitcoin to explode to $1 million per coin. Hayes also says the decision by the fed mid this week, uh, pause the rate hike interest rate suggests it's time to pump it up, pump, pump it up. And according to the BitMEX founder, the feds decision would trigger other central banks to also ease their monetary policy. Quoting him here over to you, BTC, let's go. I shall increase the pace of my rotation out of treasury bills and into Bitcoin and ish coins. Now that the fed had paused over two meetings, every other central bank has cover to print expect massive stimulus coming from China, Europe and Japan. So there you have it coming directly from crypto Hayes. Just blaze. Let's get it now for the moment you have all been waiting for. Let's dive into our featured story of the day and discuss a Bitcoin ETF being approved this month in November. And what would that mean for the crypto market? Let's break this baby down. We have Steven McClurg, the chief investment officer at Valkyrie investments has put forth a strong indication that a landmark approval from the U S SCC for a spot Bitcoin ETF can transpire by the month's end. Send it and let's go. The approval of the spot ETF is currently one of the biggest factors influencing the Bitcoin price as well as the entire crypto markets trajectory. You can say that again now alongside the financial giants such as black rock, the world's largest asset manager fidelity, which is about half the size of black rock. We got Vanek, we got Invesco, we got Valkyrie, one of the companies at the forefront of the battle with the SCC over the spot ETF. We also have grayscale. Don't forget the GBTC product. We have the firm managing to Bitcoin related ETFs at the moment. Now Valkyrie Bitcoin and ether strategy ETF and the Valkyrie Bitcoin miners ETF with a combined asset value of 51 .1 million at this time. And they also have active filings for spot Bitcoin ETF. Now McClurg, citing the latest amendments to Valkyrie spot, Bitcoin ETF app anticipates the SCC will issue another series of comments within the next weeks, potentially setting the stage for the approval of the 19 before rule changes by the end of the month. Send it quitting him here before anything else happens, we get a second round of comments and I believe we'll probably get those comments in the next one to three weeks. A late November approval likely means a February launch. So note that if we get the green light in November, it means the Bitcoin ETF would likely launch a few months later in February, which would be right in time again for the Bitcoin having. Now he also shared with ETF .com this interview suggesting a timeline for the SCCs response to these crucial amendments. He also argues the SCC can wait until January to ask the applicants to put the final touches on their S one filings. That's the other alternative scenario. Now Nate Geraci, host of the ETF prime pod explain that Valkyrie CIO suggests SCC can approve the 19 B fours exchange rule changes for the spot Bitcoin ETFs by the end of November and then the S one registration statements early next year. These don't have to be approved at the same time, so keep that in mind. Though they need both for the ETFs to begin trading. Now in recent weeks, the SCC has been actively communicating with ETF apps and disclose that the agency is carefully scrutinizing all spot Bitcoin ETF apps. The focal points of the SCCs inquiry have pertained to the comprehensive explanation of various risk disclosures, methodologies concerning index usage and net asset value computations, environmental risk inclusions, as well as detailed insights into custodial practices. Recent amendments to filings by entities such as BlackRock and VanEck have been augmented to eludicate how initial fun seating could be conducted and also note that BlackRock already began seeding their ETF back in October, which was last month. This is something that Larry Fink their CEO has already disclosed. Now because of that, industry experts remain cautiously optimistic. We have Matt Hogan, the CIO of bitwise asset management, highlighting lingering concerns, quitting him here. Market manipulation is still a potential stumbling block. Custody isn't a wrap, so there is still a lot of work to do, he stated. Now the anticipation isn't purely speculative. The man forecast suggests substantial interest. McClurg envisions about 10 billion bucks flowing into these products within the first one to two months post launch. While bitwise projects 50 billion in inflows within the first five years. I think that's extremely conservative. I could see trillions of inflows within five years, but hey, to each their own. Valkyrie revised its spot Bitcoin ETF filing October 30th a few days ago with an S1 registration statement submitted to the SCC outlining the Valkyrie ETF. The proposed fund shares are intended to be listed under the ticker BRRR on the NASDAQ stock exchange. Valkyrie updated their app and a part of a wider trend as several firms have similarly refiled their spot ETF apps signaling a concerted effort toward regulatory compliance and optimism for approval. Bloomberg ETF analyst, James Saferard identified these amendments as positive signals for progress and possible imminent approvals. Let me know which you think will get the green light first from the SCC. We all know it's imminent. We all know it's going to happen, but when is it going to be November? Is it going to be December? Could it be January? Could it be March? Let me know in the live poll we have on the screen. I have some bonus content to share with you before we dive into the live Q and A. This is from jury and Timur. Why is this so relevant? He is the head of macro at fidelity fidelity being a four and a half trillion dollar asset manager. He's the one who predicted a billion dollar Bitcoin price by the year 2038 and here's something he just recently shared. He shares some incredible threads I want to share with you. Bitcoin is volatile, but it's scarcity and adoption curve create the potential for it to be a high powered hedge against monetary shenanigans. I think of it as exponential gold and in this chart it shows you Bitcoin going past $1 .2 million per coin. That's pretty sexy. Gets me excited as he shares here. One of the attributes of Bitcoin is that it's a network asset and as such it's adoption curve has followed the typical S curve shape. We have seen many of the S curves throughout history and he continues here in the thread. The question, where is Bitcoin's journey along that S curve? A network assets value is driven by its adoption curve, so the slope of that curve matters a lot. Makes a good point. And when I first went down this rabbit hole in late 2020 it's adoption curve, which I defined as the number of non -zero addresses was very steep. It resembled the S curve for mobile phones during the 1980s and the 1990s, which was pretty promising. I'm going to read you a few more now. However, as the real rate narrative changed from dovish in 2020 to hawkish in 2022, the adoption curve flattened and it is now closer to the slope of the internet adoption curve from the two thousands and it has not made much progress since 2021. Now we also had some other threads which are very valuable. I'm just going to read the lead part of it with Bitcoin moving up. Once again, will its adoption curve accelerate as it did a few years ago and how does the macro trend on rates affect it? There's some very insightful data. If you want this, check the show notes below the video in the description. I'll include all of this. And he had one more good thread continuing the discussion from the recent thread on Bitcoin. I highly recommend you check this out because again, this is the head of macro over at Fidelity, one of the world's largest asset managers. So there you have it, my crypto fam and don't forget to check out cryptonewsalerts .net for the full premium experience with video and to participate in our live Q and a, and I look forward to seeing you on tomorrow's episode.
A highlight from Gensler Targets PayPal Stablecoin | SEC vs Crypto
"Let's get into some details today around the SEC and some of their activities here recently, including taking on PayPal and going head -to -head with one of the biggest financial institutions out there. It's going to be a good one. My name is Paul Baron. Welcome back into Tech Path. Before we get started, I want to play a little clip for you from our sponsors, and that is Tangym. If you guys are looking at going into self -custody, this is the way to go. So a lot happening within their new app updates. Some of the things pretty simple, dark mode, of course, yes, but I like the features that we're getting into the concept of doing sorting of your assets. That's a cool feature. The other thing that plays into this hardware wallet is its ease of use, and the app itself along with the three cards, which by the way, if you go over to the Tangym website, we'll go back. So it's going to give you guys the ability to do some cool things within not only securing your wallets, but keeping those backups, all those kind of things. That's the biggest thing around. If you're keeping any of your tokens on exchanges, stop now and get them into a Tangym wallet. All you have to do is click our link down below, and you'll get the 10 % off on the PBN discount. So do that. All right, so I'm going to go over and hit up on a couple of things here. I want to start with the Squawk Box video, and this is about halfway through. I'm going to play this for you guys. This will get into the detail around what we're going to look at in terms of a recession. Listen in. Do you think the Fed is trying to look ahead now and finally trying to anticipate rather than react? Yes, I do, but I listened to Powell's press conference, and I think he's just as confused by all the different data points as everybody else. Maybe that's why he wants to pause, because he doesn't know what to do. Will there be another hike? I have no idea. What would you do? I'd wait. See what the data says. You've already raised rates so much. The other 25 basis points from here is not meaningful. It's more of a messaging. So wait until you have a better clear view. But are you expecting a year from now that he's going to be lowering rates? No, I don't. I don't actually think we're going to ... Unless we have a very bad recession, I don't think we're going to see the Fed lower rates. I think Powell is still petrified of what happened to Volcker in the early 80s. So those folks who are saying, buy bonds right now, buy 10 years, because rates are going to come down. You don't think that's the case? I think that's way too early to make that kind of prediction. I wouldn't be doing that. You think he's terrified of what happened to Volcker when he lowered rates? When he lowered rates and inflation resurged, that would be the worst possible outcome that could happen to the country and for Powell's reputation. I think he lives in more fear of that than a recession. All right. So a couple of things. We covered this on the FOMC meeting the other day, and that was pretty much my take is that even though the pause did occur, I still think there will be another rate hit because of the data that's coming in and causing the confusion by Powell. They don't know how to read what they're coming in. If you think about this, the most massive rate hides we've had in the last two, three decades, obviously a recession looming, if not already here. Some of the worst kind of numbers coming out of different sets of markets, including an 8 % mortgage rate, all of this plays into either a correction or possibly one last little gas to hold it. But I do agree with him. And that is the Steve Ellsman, which is that could Powell go in the direction of holding a pause, going much higher for, and I say much meaning higher for longer, much longer and not reversing rates. If that does happen in 2024, it does mean we are having a recession. Now a couple other people out there that are looking at this is of course, Arthur Hayes, Powell Pivot, slowing down is giving us, I think a better sense of how much we need to do if we need to do more. But every measure of inflation is above the Fed's target of 2 % guess it's time to pump up financial assets. I don't necessarily agree with Arthur right now on this particular point in the sense that I think we're far enough out yet because of the data that continues to pile in the GDP growth. I know the people are looking at the GDP, possibly correcting and jobs numbers finally catching up. But I still think that we are in a position to where until there is real pain and that will most likely come after Q4. If there is real pain, that's when the Fed will act in reference to that. Now with that, you've got of course, some pretty big things happening in Japan now approving $110 billion in stimulus packages to fight the inflation situation. Of course, if we follow the track of what's happening in Japan with this hyperinflation potential risk, then yeah, you're going to see that. But the question is right now, is it the time? And I still think that Powell's got another 25 basis points in there and to Steve's point is that it's going to be a messaging thing that will help keep the markets in check. Because if we do get a research on inflation to his point, he definitely does not want that to happen because that could really set things into a motion that is almost, maybe could take multiple years to correct. So there's a lot happening right now. Now moving over to PayPal, PayPal received a subpoena regarding its $156 million market cap stable coin, which is PYUSD, which covered this. If you don't know much about that stable coin, go back to our video and watch PayPal stable coin launch. It's a big deal because this I think is good for PayPal in the sense of becoming the next generation financial tool. The interesting thing, and I'll show you guys some things about this in a little bit. The interesting question here is why the SEC went after PayPal. Now there are some things around this that is kind of unique of whether or not the SEC thinks they have a position or there are some other scenarios that are playing out this from a political point of view. I won't get into playing favorites, but we know Gensler. I think everybody kind of understands what's been happening further. So I'd love to kind of get your feedback on where this is going. From the article, it says significant development, obviously pioneering the move in August. This is when the PayPal introduced the stable coin. And they're really kind of the first, I think the first giant that has been hit. Now remember, this is a subpoena, it's not an action. So we haven't seen a Wells notice, things like that all coming out. So PayPal issued some more information, the digital giant obviously is prohibited from allowing new customers to buy new crypto assets, expanding its current offering crypto assets and operating an automated process and exchange crypto assets for money without FTA's approval. So that's something there. October 31st, before PayPal's SEC subpoena, the UK Treasury published a proposal to integrate crypto activities into the financial services regulation. Remember what's happening in Mika within the EU and now the UK also moving active. PayPal's PYUSD and ERC -20 token issued on ETH of course. And then during this, the SEC subpoena indicates the road to achieving this objective is fraught with regulatory obligations. This of course has been Gensler's argument all along is that everything's a security, including your Pokemon cards. So I think it's just a situation where they're firing some stuff across the bow here. We'll see how it goes. I want to go over to a tweet real quick. This is kind of just John Deaton chiming in on this. Under Gary Gensler, will not stop at trying to take down anyone who adopts blockchain technology to give their business a competitive advantage in financial space. And now he's going after PayPal. This is a good statement by John because he's right in the sense that anybody that is really starting to move in this direction. The interesting thing though is we are on, I think, the doorstep of some major financial institutions moving in this direction. Now why has Fidelity not been approached yet? Obviously one of the biggest, I think, out there in terms of digital assets from the mainstream financial asset managers. And then you've got the potential of what will happen when we get a Bitcoin ETF and possibly going into other ETFs, things like Ethereum and even the other assets going in that. So it's going to be a very interesting year, I think, coming up. Just as a note here, US SEC messed up in handling the contentious crypto accounting bulletin. This is a deal that happened earlier this week. The SEC was out of bounds when it issued the controversial staff accounting bulletin. A little bit about that. The guidance, which is the industry threatens to crypto investors the ability to find safe harbors in their assets should have been treated as a formal rule. And of course, this is the GEO included a report on Tuesday. And the accounting bulletin should have gone through a different process, which is really going through Congress. That's what it boils down to. And the SEC in their beautiful architecture of overreach, they do it again. And of course, they get into a little bit of a match with McHenry and Lummis. This is of course, Chair McHenry responding to this. He simply says the rule would impose massive new requirements on financial institutions and other firms to place digital assets on their balance sheets as a liability with a corresponding asset. So this gets back to this whole accounting rule. And then ultimately, this would deter institutions and firms from offering custodial services, which is a huge one, denying Americans access to safe and secure custody of their assets. This is a problem because this could even go into the big ones, such as a Fidelity who already does this with Ethereum. And right now the bulletin has massive implications and the SEC should have received feedback from the federal banking regulators and public before implementing a legally binding directive. This came from Lummis. So we're aware we don't really know which way Lummis is leaning yet, just because she's kind of been back and forth. Maybe she got baited into this little thing with the Hamas scenario, but the fact that she is defending is showing something. This sets an incredibly dangerous precedent. I plan to use Congressional Review Act to block this rule in the coming weeks. So there's some big actions right now in D .C. about this. Another thing here, this came from Deaton. It's a clear statement of a federal agency that the SEC broke the law. Ever since the Ripple lawsuit, SEC has consistently not followed the law, they don't care. Not only are they hypocrites, but they also lack a faithful allegiance to the law. And the SEC does more to hurt the investors than it does to protect investors. I would agree with that. Now granted, the SEC is in full tilt against crypto right now. If you look at what they've done here with Safemoon, and granted, this is kind of low hanging fruit. If you're going to go after the scammers, go, yeah, of course, get the scammers. And this is one that did happen. Safemoon crypto and token executives now were arrested and charged with fraud. So this is at least what they're supposed to be doing. The only problem is they're going after real companies who are running real businesses in causing a lot of mismanagement, I think, of the asset. Sometimes I wonder if the SEC is doing this more out of an idea of just detract and defend, create noise over here, nothing to see here kind of thing. I don't know. It's a very interesting situation right now. But the charges in the company's orchestration of a massive fraudulent scheme through unregistered sale of crypto assets and security Safemoon, additionally, the SEC charges the firm the misappropriated investor funds for personal use. So those are typical things that are happening, not just in crypto, but in any kind of company, including VCs, private equity, independent angel rounds, all those kinds of things. All this happens in any federal regulated fundraising. These kind of things happen. And that's what the SEC is for. It is supposed to do those kinds of things. Onto some other news here is MicroStrategy stocks, their advantage over the planned spot Bitcoin ETF. This is something that Saylor is talking about. I don't know. I would love to get your input on this. I'll reserve for some of you guys, you can drop some comments down here before I kind of go in this direction. But basically Saylor is saying that the MicroStrategy stock offers a way to get Bitcoin exposure with the benefits such funds won't offer, such as an ETF. Further in the article, here is some explanation here. Spot ETF would charge investors a material amount, which will dilute returns meaningfully over the time. Why would someone, a prudent investor, want to give up such a large portion? I don't know that that's a large portion. We've shown some of the fees that have been proposed. They're not super expensive compared to that. From a standpoint of intrinsic value, any downside move in Bitcoin will be partially offset by the stability of the underlying asset. So spot ETFs offer no such protection. But you also have to think about the fact that MicroStrategy itself, the stock, could also take a deviation and market correction. So there's kind of a, I don't know, I'd love to get your feedback on which way you would play it. I'm looking at this from an ETF standpoint. I think that's going to be the route that people will take. Could people say, no, I'm going to play this direction, you know, with MicroStrategy? But hey, listen, it's an interesting argument. Always love to kind of get feedback across our channel. So drop some comments down below. Here was James Lavish talking about this. Institutional investors who were once worried about career risk for owning Bitcoin now are beginning to worry about career risk for not owning it and wondering when Gensler is going to finally approve the spot ETFs for them. I think this is an interesting thing. Just as a reminder, with this subpoena against PayPal, this is PayPal's current market cap right there at $60 billion. This would be one of the largest companies approached by the SEC for these kind of activities. Let's compare them. There's Goldman, $100 billion, and here's Coinbase at $20 billion. Coinbase, plenty of time to go head to head. PayPal is three times that size at a heavily deflated value. Just if you go back to the PayPal numbers and you go to the, let's just go to the max. Look at the deflated value of PayPal. These are the reasons that PayPal is going into alternative product and financial services products out there. So this is something, this company at one time was worth three, almost four times that. So this is a big one for sure that the SEC is about to take. All right, guys, if you are listening in over the podcast, get over here on the YouTube channel, it's the best place to catch all this content, unless of course you are going to join the Diamond Circle. That's where you're going to get additional content. We do another podcast over there. I also do some shows over there that we don't put here on the YouTube channel. So check it out, click into the Diamond Circle down below. And of course, if you want to catch me out there on X, it's at Paul Baron. We'll catch you next time right here on Tech Path.
A highlight from BIG XRP NEWS! DUBAI APPROVES XRP FOR USE! RIPPLE GEORGIA CBDC
"XRP gets approval under the virtual assets regime in Dubai. This is huge news for XRP. Let's break it down. Welcome to the Thinking Crypto Podcast, your home for cryptocurrency news and interviews. If you are new here, hit that subscribe button as well as the thumbs up button and leave a comment below. Well, folks, big news around XRP. Here's what Ripple tweeted out. Today, the Dubai Financial Services Authority, also known as the DFSA, approved XRP under its virtual assets regime, allowing licensed firms in the Dubai International Center to incorporate XRP into their virtual asset services. Folks, we are seeing global adoption of crypto and XRP continues to get adoption as well. And obviously, Ripple had a big win against SEC, showing that XRP intrinsically is not a security. And that is, of course, a huge win for the entire crypto industry. But I've often stated that crypto is not a United States asset class. It's a global asset class. And we are seeing different countries, jurisdictions and regions are embracing XRP, giving licensing and approvals and much more. Very bullish if you are an XRP holder. So here's what the press release had to say regarding this. Since the DFSA opened up external applications, XRP is the first virtual asset to be approved by the regime. XRP joins Bitcoin, Ethereum and Litecoin as assets previously approved under the DFSA's virtual assets regime. XRP now stands to benefit from legal and regulatory clarity in the DFC and will be available for use by institutions located in the DFC to accelerate faster and more efficient global value exchange. Huge news, folks. Huge news. Very, very bullish if you're an XRP holder. And we know Ripple, their on -demand liquidity product is being set up for global adoption. It will use XRP. They're trying to improve cross -border payments. And we know in Dubai, there are many, many migrant workers, people who send money back home and they want to send it service providers and banks in those regions. And it's great to see, you know, XRP adoption. Here's what Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse had to say in the press release. Dubai continues to demonstrate global leadership when it comes to the regulation of virtual assets and nurturing innovation. It's refreshing to see the DFSA encourage the adoption and use of digital assets such as XRP to position Dubai as a leading financial services hub intent on attracting foreign investment and accelerating economic growth. Ripple will continue to double down on its presence in Dubai. And we look forward to continuing to work closely with the regulators to realize crypto's full potential. Folks, Gary Gensler is punching air right now. He's not happy. Dubai's listing of XRP has the potential to unlock new regional payments and other virtual asset use cases on the XRP ledger. As a key builder and user of the XRP ledger, Ripple chose the DFC as the location for its MENA headquarters in 2020 due to Dubai's innovation forward regulations, expansive network and reputation as a leading global financial center. Approximately 20 % of Ripple's customers are based in the MENA region. Huge news folks, very, very bullish if you're an XRP holder. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse also tweeted some thoughts around this. He said Dubai's regulators have consistently demonstrated their pro innovation approach with this announcement as the latest example. Ripple will continue doubling down in regions where there is regulatory clarity for crypto. A key reason we're hosting Ripple Swell in Dubai this year. Now Ripple's chief legal officer Stuart Alderati said the following regarding this news, doing business in the DFC free zone puts you under a regulator, DFSA, that is providing clear guidance and rule books. No wonder entrepreneurs are flocking to Dubai. So clearly there's clarity on other countries and regions and the United States is lagging behind folks. There's also some big news that came out today around Ripple and the XRP ledgers. So the central bank payment news account here tweeted out, Ripple is the official technology partner for the national bank of Georgia's digital gel G E L CBDC pilot. According to a press release issued today in next steps, the national bank and ripple will jointly plan the project execution and gradual rollout plan. So this was a press release on today and we're seeing central banks around the world are minting their CBCs on the XRP ledger. So there's a lot of pilots going on, a lot of testing CBDCs and are coming folks, whether we'd like it or not. And they're being built on different blockchains. So don't get me wrong, right? Their block, their CBDC is going to be launched on Algorand, some on Ethereum and obviously the XRP ledgers. So huge news folks, I am still bullish on XRP, still holding my portfolio. And obviously it's been moving pretty well since the lawsuit wrap up news. I expected to do well in the next bull market to hit new all -time highs. That's not financial advice. That's not guaranteed because I don't have a crystal ball, but based on the facts that we have today, based on the clarity we have in the United States, based on all the adoption that's taking place, like the one mentioned here in Dubai and getting clarity, XRP is primed to hit new all -time highs. And it's still my number one holding. I hold Bitcoin and Ethereum as well and other all coins, but XRP certainly my number one holding, still bullish on it, folks. Now I want to end it here with Jurien Timmer of Fidelity, continuing to share his thoughts on Bitcoin. Today, he shared a new chart titled Bitcoin Drivers, which he sourced data from a variety of folks like Bloomberg, Haver Analytics, and much more. He said, with Bitcoin moving up once again, will its adoption curve accelerate as it did a few years ago? And how does the macro trend on rates affect it? Here's some data to consider. Above, I show a fair value band based on both the slope of the internet adoption curve and the path for real rates. The bottom boundary assumes a TIPS real rate of plus 2 .5 % where we are at currently, and the upper boundary assumes a minus 2 % where we were in 2021. The macro can speed up or slow down the adoption curve, which we have seen played out recently. Assuming for a moment that Bitcoin will mature as an asset class that plays on the same team as gold and silver, how should we think about where it would sit in a 60 -40 portfolio and what would be a reasonable position size? The good news is that its annualized volatility is down from its 2018 peak, weekly returns below, although at 58%, it is still head and shoulders above traditional asset classes. So here in this chart, he's looking at a conservative price point top of $96 ,210 for the 2025 peak. However, if you look at the chart, Bitcoin many times breaks out of the set boundaries and goes beyond that. So I think it's safe to assume based on this chart here, Bitcoin will be over $100 ,000 in the next peak, which is in 2025. And I love data like this and looking at different data points like this, because you want to be educated and understand the market cycles because the liquidity usually flows to Bitcoin, then it flows down to the altcoins. So this is really great data. And we're seeing the bullish momentum building again, and I'm excited folks. And I think Bitcoin could possibly, now it's not guaranteed, hit 50, maybe 48, 50 K in the next two months or so. We'll see. Not guaranteed. It could top out at 40, but we certainly have a lot of narratives like the spot ETF approval, and as well as the Bitcoin halving, which I think has signified the start of the bull markets for the last market cycle. So folks, that's the news. Let me know what you think about this XRP news. Huge in my opinion. Are you bullish on XRP? Leave your thoughts and comments below. Do you think we're going to hit a new all time high in 2025? And thank you for listening. Thank you for watching. Appreciate the support. And I'll talk to you all later.
A highlight from Why Did The Bitcoin Price Go Up? | EP 859
"It's all going to zero against Bitcoin, and it's going up forever more. Bitcoin! You're against Bitcoin, you're against freedom. Yo, good morning, everybody. We're back. It's Thursday, November 2nd, the year 2023. And as you can see, we're not going to really speculate on where the price is going. We're going to cover why we believe the Bitcoin price is going up. There's a new meme on the market in the Bitcoin Twitter sphere of flight to quality. Is it the halving? Is it people concerned about inflation? Is it a gamma squeeze? Maybe it's all of the above. But as we all know, as humans like to pinpoint certain things to make us feel better about what is going on in the market, anything, anyways, one thing is for sure here, the Bitcoin price is getting frothy as we are moving into the early stages of a bull run. I hope you've been stacking. I hope you continue to stack. I hope you're taking your Bitcoin into cold storage because it's going to be a fun, fun ride the next few years. I'd say two years, 18 months after the halving. It's going to be a great, great 2025. I think 2024 is going to be even better. Just moving up, slow grind and just seeing everyone in disbelief as Bitcoin rises from the ashes. Anyways, we got some videos. We got some news. We even got an awesome guest. Absolutely love our guest today. So, of course, guys, welcome to Simply Bitcoin. We are your number one source for the peaceful Bitcoin revolution. We cover breaking news, culture, memetic warfare. We bring on Bitcoiners from all around the world, from the biggest names to the everyday. Can I cuss? Badass Bitcoiners. We got them all. We will be your guide through the separation of money and state. Of course, I'm not alone. I got my boy, Rustin. Rustin, good to have you on the live show, bro. You've been killing it on the YouTube timeline in the original Simply Bitcoin content. And good to have you, bro. Last time we were on, we hit all time high. Let's go. So hopefully we can maintain that streak. But how are you doing? What are we covering on the news today, bro? Well, Rustin's covering the news today, so you know, it's going to be highly regarded and bullish. But we got a guest here that's might help me bring it back down or he's just going to amplify it. We'll see. But we got a lot of fun coming. A lot of great news. Clown world continues to devolve, but also that's very bullish for Bitcoin. I don't know. We got some big news from Fidelity basically says, you know, Bitcoin's gold, but like 10 ,000x better. So we're going to talk about that. They have some projections and we're just going to totally trash clown world. And the I don't know, man, I smell all that. That's I smell a flight to quality and a hint of hyperinflation in the background. So let's get the hell after it today. Yes, yes, yes. And as everyone's saying, actually, guys, we actually will be touching on some treasuries today. Yes, I know. Flight to quality meme is strong with everyone. Macro, macro, macro, macro.
"fidelity" Discussed on Crypto News Alerts | Daily Bitcoin (BTC) & Cryptocurrency News
"HODL and chill says Dutch Hodler. You got that right. Nel though, what to do? Exchange only is good for buying Bitcoin and moving it to coal storage or trading your alt coins for Bitcoin is another reason to use an exchange. Right. JV, thank you so much for all your your efforts. You're a great hero. Thank you. Young Ryu. Again, Ryu was my favorite street fighter growing up. So much love, much respect. Hi, you can strike us for the. Oh, geez. Only for the king, BTC. That's right. Nathan Roth. That's what's up. You are crazy. Thank you for the compliment is crack and non KYC. No, unfortunately, all the major centralized exchanges require KYC. It's just the reality. You got to check into some decentralized exchanges. Dex's. That's where you can get away with no KYC. Yeah, I mean, I'm back, people. What up? What up? Welcome back. Cherry Young. Appreciate you. Give me thirty seven to write me out. Send it, fam. Let's go. All right, guys, let's dive into our next story of the day. This is breaking news coming out of PayPal. They just started offering UK investors or they just got their crypto license in the UK. So investors in the UK will be able to get Bitcoin from PayPal soon. Global payments giant PayPal received the approval from the Financial Conduct Authority to offer crypto services and United Kingdom. How many of you are in the UK or even in Europe? Let me know in that chat. According to the official data, PayPal has been registered to offer certain crypto asset activities in the UK since October 31st, 2023. That's as of yesterday, fam. So this is brand new. According to the register, PayPal has requirements or restrictions placed on the financial services activities that it can operate. Quitting them here. This includes, but it's not limited to seizing onboarding new customers and restricting existing customers to hold and sell functionality. The firm cannot expand its current offering in crypto assets. The register notes, adding it's including, but not limited to crypto exchange services, participation in initial coin offerings we know as ICOs, staking peer to peer exchanges and decentralized finance activities such as lending and borrowing. PayPal reportedly became the fourth firm to receive the FCA's crypto registration in 2023 after interactive brokers Bitstamp and Come On You. The license acquisition comes shortly after PayPal briefly paused the ability for its UK customers to buy cryptos like Bitcoin in early October. That sucks right now. I guess you guys couldn't buy Bitcoin, but all that looks like it has changed. The United Kingdom has been noticeably emerging as a major crypto economy. And according to an October 2023 report by blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis, the UK is the biggest crypto country in terms of raw transaction volume in central northern and western Europe. And according to the study by a crypto tax platform recap, London was the world's most crypto ready city for business in February 2023. Wow, I didn't know that. So it seems London is very crypto friendly or at least moving that way. And another sign of that is this license that PayPal has received for the people in the UK. Next up, let's discuss this new Bitcoin ETF filing, which has just taken place coming from Invesco Galaxy, another major asset manager. Check it out. The ticker for Invesco and Galaxy Spot Bitcoin ETF is BTCO. It has appeared on the Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation website, which for short, we say the DTCC, marking a step forward in the application process for the two asset managers. As you can see here in your screen, this shows you the Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin listed on the DTCC site. The ETF has been added to the list sometime in the last six days with the web archiver Wayback Machine showing no listing under the ticker. BTCO was present on October 25th. That means it was in the last week. A ticker added to the list of ETF products on the DTCC site is not a guarantee of future approval of the product. So keep that in mind. But we all know it's incoming. A DTCC spokesperson said it is standard practice for the DTCC to add securities to the NSCC security eligibility file in prep for the launch of the new ETF to the market. Quitting them here, appearing on the list, it is not indicative of an outcome for any outstanding regulatory or other approval process. I guess they have to share their disclaimers, right? Anyways, the application for the Joint Spot Bitcoin ETF managed by global investment firm Invesco and crypto asset fund Galaxy Digital was reactivated on June 21st, as pointed out here by ETF analyst of Bloomberg, Eric Balchunas. And now Invesco had reactivated their 19B4 for their Spot ETF. So the move to relodge the app with the SEC came amid a tidal wave of similar filings for Spot Bitcoin ETF products brought about by investment giant BlackRock, which we know is the largest asset manager in the world, lodging its landmark application for the Spot Bitcoin ETF on June 15th. So there you have it, fam. Another one bites the dust. Hopefully it's like the domino effect. They all get the green light at the same time. But the million dollar question right now, when do we get the approval of the Spot ETF? And will it be all of them getting the approval in the green light, or will it be one and then another slowly after the other? And which one do you think will get the first mover's advantage? Personally, here are the top prospects. We got BlackRock, largest asset manager in the world. They kind of run the world. So there's a good probability of not only is their ETF approved, but they may get the first mover's advantage. Another one that has that possibility is the GBTC product, which is grayscale. Their parent company is Genesis because they recently won the lawsuit against the SEC, and I believe they are going to have to react and make a decision very soon. And so who knows? They may have the first mover's advantage. They're already holding the underlying asset because their trust currently holds over 600,000 BTC, making them the largest hodler of Bitcoin in the world. Another prospect for the first mover advantage is ARK21, which is virtually Cathie Wood's company, because she says she gets the response first. They have the due date. I believe it is January 10th, which is the deadline for the SEC. So more than likely, one of them are going to get approved. And it could even be another one that I'm not even mentioning right now, or it could just be like, yo, they're all approved. And if that approval, wow, we're still pumping. We're about to hit thirty four nine. I should be doing a pump party right now. I'm excited if you can't tell, but we're about to break thirty five thousand during today's live. Let's freaking go. All right. Now let's break down our featured story of the day and discuss the latest from Fidelity, one of the world's largest asset managers. They control four and a half trillion in assets under management. They have a massive amount of investors, something of the sum like 80 million, something wild, right? Maybe even more than that. I got to look at the numbers here. Let me actually see here. It's actually I'm sorry, 43 million investors currently trust in Fidelity. So this is a major player and their head of macro is predicting a one billion dollar Bitcoin price target. Also, they just recently updated their Bitcoin ETF application as well. So let's break all this down. Welcome, everyone in the live chat. Send that mofo above thirty five thousand dollars, shall we? And let's freaking go. All right, guys, here we go. Let's start right here. Fidelity revives their Bitcoin ETF. Let's break this baby down ETFs. As we all know, our investment funds users can buy and sell on stock exchanges similar to individual stocks, allowing traders to invest in a variety of assets, including stocks, bonds, and in this case, the king crypto Bitcoin ETFs are designed to follow the performance of a specific index asset or a commodity. Bitcoin is getting more popular, as we know, and traditional investors and asset managers are eager to introduce Bitcoin ETFs to the market. We can't wait. Bitcoin ETF would let the investors get involved with the famous crypto without actually owning it. This makes it easier for traditional investors to join the crypto game. Now, Fidelity, the highly respected name in finance, has made a big move by updating its app. Fidelity's recent ETF update pays special attention to reducing the risks associated with Bitcoin ETFs. The crypto market is known for the price swings, which we call volatility, and Fidelity understands the potential impact on investors. Addressing these risks is crucial to making a Bitcoin ETF work well and last long. Now, the crypto community has been awaiting eagerly for the Bitcoin ETF to become a reality for years, to say the least. It's been over a decade, fam. Even though the US SEC had rejected previous apps, the desire for an ETF tracking Bitcoin remains stronger than ever. A Bitcoin ETF offers a more stable and regulated way for the investors to join the crypto world. If you're not familiar with ETFs, they are like investment funds only. This is what the big wigs use to get their positions into Bitcoin. I must point out as well, clearly, that average day to day investors, we don't need ETFs. We can just go on any crypto exchange and buy the underlying asset. This is for the big guys. This is for the billion dollar asset managers. This is for the trillion dollar asset managers. This is for the companies worth hundreds of millions of dollars. The companies that are unable to invest into Bitcoin without the protection of a regulated exchange traded fund. That's what this is for. This is going to usher in the big money, that 700 trillion dollar total addressable market. That's what the ETFs are for. This is how the trillions sitting on the sidelines enter Bitcoin. Right now, the Bitcoin market cap is only freaking north of 500 billion. That's less like roughly a half a trillion dollars. That's virtually nothing on the grand scheme of things. We're talking 700 trillion total addressable market, which Bitcoin is going to be tapping into. And my friends, that's why this is such a big freaking deal. Now, check this out. They recently, Fidelity, published research explaining why investors should buy Bitcoin. Here are 10 key points on why you should buy Bitcoin. According to Fidelity, the four and a half trillion dollar investment manager. First and foremost, Fidelity finds Bitcoin is the best money. That's correct. It's perfect money. Quitting them here. Bitcoin clearly possesses a lot of good qualities of money, combining the scarcity and durability of gold with the ease of use, storage and transportability of fiat. That's right. It basically outcompetes all the competitors. It's like gold, but clearly much, much, much better. Next up, they explain the virtuous cycle of Bitcoin. Quitting them here. This Bitcoin network competition is likely to result in a winner take all scenario as the network grows and becomes more valuable. Guess who is the winner? That takes all. You guessed it, fan, Bitcoin. More users and hodlers equals higher demand, equals higher prices, equals more miners, equals higher security, makes it more attractive. And the circle of life of Bitcoin continues. Next up, they point out they compare Bitcoin to the wheel. Quoting them here in the report, the invention of the wheel represented an entirely new tech that once invented can never be reinvented. And similarly, never in human history had the problem of peer to peer electronic cash been solved until BTC. That's right. Facts. Next up, Fidelity is amazed Bitcoin survived. Quoting them here every minute, hour, day and year, the Bitcoin survives, increases its chances of continuing into the future. People would probably underestimate all the negative events the Bitcoin has already endured preach. They also share. They provide hard numerical data showing how secure the Bitcoin network is compared to other coins, as they share here in terms of sheer computational power required to alter the network's consensus. Bitcoin far exceeds any remaining proof of work competitors. That's right. And as the hash rate continues to go up, the network continues to adjust its difficulty approximately every two weeks and get stronger and stronger. And the more you attack the network, if you're silly enough to even attempt it, the stronger the network becomes. Next, Fidelity compares Bitcoin to the Internet. That's right. The Internet Protocol Suite, known as TCP and IP, is an open source based layer where apps on top of which to be built. Owning Bitcoin would be akin to being able to own the base layer of the Internet. So if you want to own the frickin Internet, just buy Bitcoin. It's even superior to the Internet, in my opinion. Next up, Fidelity writes, Bitcoin continues to dominate the market cap of all competing cryptocurrency tokens is the king for a reason. And the Bitcoin market dominance is on the climb. You already know what time it is. Once we surpass 51%, it's an official 51% attack on the altcoin market. I'm anticipating the Bitcoin dominance to continue to climb. Let me know how high you feel. It could potentially climb for this cycle. They also point out and agree that Bitcoin is useful. It appears at this point, the Bitcoin has found a role in the digital asset ecosystem as a scarce store value asset at the very least. Now, there's no competition because even Ethereum is no store value asset. They don't have a finite limited supply. In fact, if you look on coin market cap, you'll see next to infinity, you'll see next to Ethereum the infinity sign, which means there is no max supply. So therefore, it cannot be used as a store of value, unlike Bitcoin. Now, they also share and conclude Bitcoin should be considered first and separate from all the other digital assets that have followed it. I agree with that sentiment 100%. Let me know if you agree or disagree. And to read this entire research study, check the show notes below the video in the description. But now we got to get into the moment we have all been waiting for and discuss this billion dollar price target by Fidelity. Shout out to Zero Dollar G. I appreciate the super chat again. He says, welcome all smash that like, Sam, thank you for the reminder. And yes, we're on the cusp of hitting thirty five thousand. We're like ten dollars away right now. So send it and let's go and let's hit a new annual high. Let's get this mofo lit, shall we? But yeah, now let's break down this billion dollar price prediction from Fidelity and the year FYI by the year twenty thirty eight. So if we're in twenty, twenty three right now, that's another fifteen years. Could you imagine that? Let's break it down. Jerry and Timmer, director of Global Macro at Fidelity, put forth the notion Bitcoin has the potential to reach a value of one billion dollars per coin in the next 15 years, specifically around the year twenty thirty eight. And to support the forecast, Timmer employed a combination of models and charts with a particular focus to the stock to flow model and his own demand model. These analytical tools form the foundation of his primary prediction. Now, here you can see on your screen this chart employs Metcalfe's law. This is the demand model. And according to this, the number of its users grows linearly. A network's value grows geometrically. This means that the utility and adoption of Bitcoin are expected to grow more rapidly compared to its network of users, exchanges, ATMs and participating retailers. Therefore, the model predicts that Bitcoin will reach one million dollars by the year twenty thirty. Now, this isn't so crazy. Stock to flow is also anticipating a price prediction basically after the halving in twenty twenty four, somewhere between one hundred thousand and a million dollars per coin. So this is right in alignment with that target. It's also right in alignment with Cathie Wood's one million dollar Bitcoin price target by the year twenty thirty. So let's continue, shall we? So in contrast, Timmer stock to flow supply model notes the event of significant price surges during each halving event. Consequently, when considering this model in conjunction with the other factors, it foresees a price range of one million to ten million dollars per Bitcoin by the year twenty thirty. So, again, the target I just shared of a million, they can see ten X that target by the year twenty thirty. I hope they're right now. Timmer's demand model is more inclined towards reflecting the bottom of the Bitcoin price. And on the other hand, the stock to flow model seems to provide the better approximation for the peak of the king coin. However, it's worth noting that the disparity between these two models widened significantly beyond the year twenty thirty. The reason behind this gap is expected to be the changing value of the dollar. That's right. You've got to take that into consideration. Now, let's discuss how changes in the dollar could influence the Bitcoin price action. Timmer proposes the value of the dollar undergoes fluctuations over time when compared to other assets. For example, it was if a dollar was invested in stocks in the 18th century, its present day value would be roughly four billion dollars. Good lord, hyperinflation. Similarly, Timmer implied that if one million bucks is invested today, it can grow to a billion dollars in just a span of 20 years. This further revealed that the purchasing power of the dollar significantly reduced due to factors like inflation and depreciation. Thus, Timmer statement implies that keeping a fixed amount of dollars for many years may lead to reduced purchasing power due to the assets changing value. And over the last few years, an increasing number of companies are taking over that one trillion dollar market cap. Yeah, I mean, it's actually quite interesting. You know, I actually want to discuss this really quick. As I shared in yesterday's episode, we talked about Max Kaiser being on Alex Jones's show, and Alex kept joking that Max, he's like, I know, Max, you have over a million Bitcoin. Now, if you just run the math just for fun sake, one million Bitcoin times a value of a million dollars a coin, let's hypothetically say we're in the year 2030 Bitcoin hits a million bucks. Someone's going to become a trillionaire. Someone is going to become a trillionaire. Whoever owns a million Bitcoin besides Satoshi will become a trillionaire. Right now, allegedly, trillionaires don't exist on the planet. I personally believe that the richest people on the planet we don't know about. They're not, you know, in the public eye. They're moving in secrecy in the shadows, and there's probably families worth in excess of trillions of dollars. Easy peasy. But on paper, what do we got? We got Warren Buffett, we got Elon Musk, we got Jeff Bezos, and none of them are close to a trillion. But guess what? I think the first trillionaire will be a Bitcoiner. Let me know if you agree or disagree. And what are your feelings on a one billion dollar Bitcoin price in which Fidelity is predicting by the year 2038 and the next 15 years? And hypothetically speaking, to all my Bitcoiners out there and all my hodlers, how would that change your frickin life? A one billion dollar Bitcoin? Let me know, fam. And don't forget to check out crypto news alerts dot net for the full premium experience with video and to participate in our live Q &A. And I look forward to seeing you on tomorrow's episode. HODL.
"fidelity" Discussed on Crypto News Alerts | Daily Bitcoin (BTC) & Cryptocurrency News
"And one one tenth of one ether, as explained here by Andrew Sears, the CEO of CFM, quoting him here. These contracts offer lower upfront capital requirements and can be an affordable investment option for a broader range of retail customers. Now the nano ether contract allows participants to manage the risk, trade on margin or speculate on the price of Ethereum. The nano Bitcoin contract allows users to bet on the future price of BTC. And in addition to providing regulated, leveraged and cash settled crypto futures, users will be provided access to a library of educational content via Coinbase learn US residents with an active Coinbase account for spot trading are eligible to create an FCM futures account. How many of you even trade futures to begin with? Let me know. The services have been launched on the Web version and will soon be available on all mobile devices. Coinbase's decision to launch crypto future services seemed natural as the exchange witnessed a sharp decline in spot trading volume this year compared to twenty twenty two. Now an analysis from digital asset provider CC data showed Coinbase registered roughly seventy six billion dollars worth of spot trading volume, a fifty two percent drop in spot trading for quarter three of this year compared to the same period in twenty twenty two. So despite the decline in spot trading volume, Coinbase gained market share in the last quarter as the crypto exchange finance came under increased scrutiny from regulators. So there you have it, fam. I'm curious. Let me know in the chat out of all the crypto exchanges out there, which one has your trust? Which exchange are you most likely to use? And shout out to Digital Dankness. He just released the video the other day on the top five crypto exchanges in the United States, and he even breaks down fee wise, which ones have the lowest fees. So I would encourage you all to check that out over on CoinIQ. It's a great, great video. Personally, Coinbase, we all know, is the largest crypto exchange in the United States. We know Binance is the largest crypto exchange in the world. Other big candidates to check into would be Gemini, which is owned by the Winklevoss twins. And then we also have Kraken, which is an OG crypto exchange. And now there's a lot of other options and ways to buy and, you know, acquire BTC and Stacks that you have the cash app. You can now do so on PayPal. I don't trust PayPal as far as I can throw them. You have Swann, but there's a lot of options now, which is cool. Nathan Roth points out strike. That's another great way to buy some BTC. Shout out to Jack Mollers. Yahim Stone says no futures. Amen to that. Futures will get you wrecked. Futures is for the degens or the very advanced traders that like to risk a lot and have a high risk tolerance. If you don't have a high risk tolerance and you don't like gambling and you don't consider yourself a degen, I would just stick to the underlying asset. I mean, Eddie says Bitcoin is pumping you damn straight because we live. That's what we do. I mean, thirty four thousand eight hundred incoming. Let's see if we can get the thirty five G's before the end of the show. That would be lit. I agree, Jack. I don't trust CZ either for some unknown reason.
"fidelity" Discussed on Crypto News Alerts | Daily Bitcoin (BTC) & Cryptocurrency News
"In today's show, Bitcoin price gets $36,000 FOMC target as Bitcoin prints a 29%. October gains as we enter Moonvember. Send it and let's go. Also in today's show, quitting Max Keiser, Bitcoin is up over 100% since my interview with Daniella Cambone nine months ago. Gold unchanged. I wish I could sugarcoat the truth, but the harsh truth is Bitcoin is demonetizing gold. For every $1 move up in gold, we'll average a $20 move in Bitcoin per each. Also in today's show, that's fraud, says prosecutors and closing arguments at the Sam Bankman-freed trial. I'll be sharing the latest updates with you here. Also Coinbase launches a regulated crypto future service for US retail traders. That's right. Also PayPal scores UK crypto license after a brief local Bitcoin buy halt. I'm also going to be sharing with you Invesco Galaxy's Spot Bitcoin ETF joins BlackRock officially on the DTCC site. And speaking of Spot Bitcoin ETFs, Fidelity revives their Bitcoin ETF app. I'll be breaking this down for you. Also, they recently published a report explaining 10 reasons why you should consider buying Bitcoin. This is a pretty big deal considering it's a $4.5 trillion asset manager with 43 million investors trusting Fidelity. I'll also be sharing their $1 billion Bitcoin price prediction. We'll also be taking a look at the overall crypto market. All this plus so much more in today's show.
"fidelity" Discussed on Crypto News Alerts | Daily Bitcoin (BTC) & Cryptocurrency News
"What's the word? Confidence in Ethereum with all that is going on, all of the upgrades. It doesn't seem they fixed anything. The gas fees are still astronomical. You need layer twos like Polygon and Matic to make it affordable and no one really knows what's happening. Why are the founders and the foundations dumping so much ETH? What are your thoughts, fam? Let me know. Do you think Bitcoin is likely to finally outpace Ethereum for this market cycle? I truly do, but I want to know your thoughts in the comments right down below. So let me know. Now let's break down our next story of the day, which is the $1 billion Bitcoin price prediction for one of the top asset managers in the world, which is Fidelity, which currently controls over $4.5 trillion in assets under management. They recently just shared a report. So I first and foremost want to share with you the highlights of the report. As you can see here shared on X by documenting Bitcoin, Fidelity manages $4.5 trillion with 43 million investors trusting Fidelity. That's a lot of investors, fam. Now yesterday they published new research explaining why investors should consider Bitcoin. Here are the 10 key takeaways. Here we go. A shout out to documenting Bitcoin for this good post here on X. Let's see if I can open this baby up. Here we go. Okay, so as they share here, Fidelity finds Bitcoin is the best money, quoting them from the report. Bitcoin clearly possesses a lot of good qualities of money, combining the scarcity and durability of gold with the ease of use, storage and transportability. Fiat preach so much more superior and it shows you the comparisons here. Gold to Bitcoin to fiat currency, durability, divisibility, fungible, portable, verifiable, scarce and the track record, which speaks volumes. Next up, they list Fidelity explains virtuous cycle of Bitcoin, quoting them here. This Bitcoin network competition is likely to result in a winner take all scenario as the network grows and becomes more valuable. You know what winner takes all means, right? It all goes to zero against Bitcoin and here's the circle they show. The virtuous circle of reflexivity of Bitcoin. More users and hodlers equals higher demand equals higher prices, more miners, higher security, more attractive and more users and more hodlers. And the cycle continues and they also share Fidelity compares Bitcoin to the wheel, quoting them here. The invention of the wheel represented an entirely new technology that once invented can never be reinvented. Similarly, never in human history had the problem of peer-to-peer electronic cash been solved until Bitcoin preach as highlighted here in the report. I mean, very powerful. Next, they share Fidelity is amazed that Bitcoin survived. How many of you are amazed that Bitcoin is not dead after all the mainstream reports over the years that Bitcoin has officially died over a thousand times? Quoting them here, every minute, hour, day and year the Bitcoin survives increases its chances of continuing into the future. People would probably underestimate all the negative events that Bitcoin has already endured. Great point. Now let's break down their next point they share. Fidelity provides hard numerical data showing how secure Bitcoin is compared to other coins. Quoting them here, in terms of sheer computational power required to alter the network's consensus, Bitcoin far exceeds any remaining proof of work competitors facts. And as you can see, the 30 day mean hash rate continuing to hit all time highs. There is no comparison whatsoever, meaning it is the most secure network in the world. And that's what makes the technology so fantastic. And if you try to attack it, as I shared in an audio from Andreas Antonopoulos, the more powerful the network becomes. So you can't attack it. It's only going to make Bitcoin that much more stronger. Nation states already know this. Next, Fidelity compares Bitcoin to the internet. Quoting the report again, the internet protocol suite known as TCPIP is an open source base layer. Applications on which to be built. Now owning Bitcoin would be akin to being able to own a base layer of the internet. Now how many of you would love to own the base layer of the internet? Start stacking those sats fam. Very powerful comparison. I love that metaphor personally. Next up, Fidelity points out, Bitcoin continues to dominate the market capitalization of all competing currency tokens. That my friend is a fact. It's the king for a reason and it's staging a 51% attack on the altcoins if you're to ask me. Now next they share, Fidelity agrees that Bitcoin is useful. Quoting them again, it appears at this point that Bitcoin has found the role in the digital asset ecosystem as a scarce store value asset at the very least per each. And there's the final 10th and final breakdown coming from Fidelity on Bitcoin. They conclude, Bitcoin should be considered first and separate from all other digital assets that have followed it. Very well said, fam. So if you want to see this entire report, be sure to check the show notes below the video in the description. Now for Fidelity's $1 billion Bitcoin price prediction by the year 2038. That's right. This was initially shared by Julian Timmer and I want to break this down. If you don't know Julian Timmer, he is the director of global macro at Fidelity. He put forth the notion first that Bitcoin has the potential to reach a value of $1 billion per coin in roughly two decades. And it let's go specifically around the year 2038. And to support his forecast, Timmer employed a combination of models and charts with a particular focus on the stock to flow model and his own demand model. These analytical tools form the foundation of his primary prediction. And as you can see here, it shows you the Bitcoin supply and demand models showing the annual and monthly data sources coming from Bloomberg, as well as Plan B, creator of the Bitcoin stock to flow model. Now, this above demand model employs Metcalfe's law. And according to the number of its users growing linearly, a network's value grows geometrically. This means that the utility and adoption of Bitcoin are expected to grow more rapidly compared to its network of users, exchanges, ATMs and participating retailers. Therefore, this model predicted the Bitcoin price will reach $1 million by 2030. And I want to stop right there because we all know this prediction. We've heard it before. Plan B has been anticipating a $1 million Bitcoin price as per the stock to flow. And he says Bitcoin is likely to be somewhere between $100,000 and $1 million post Bitcoin halving 2024. Obviously, that's a very wide gap. But interestingly, that's right in alignment with Julian Timmer, head of global macro at Fidelity. But here, my friend, is where things get very interesting with his price prediction model. So let's break this baby down, shall we? Here we go. So, yeah, this is the chart right there. Now, in contrast, Timmer stock to flow supply model notes the event of significant price surges during each have an event, which we all know. Consequently, when considering this model in conjunction with the other factors, it foresees the price of Bitcoin ranging from $1 million to $10 million for Bitcoin by the year 2030. So a factor of 10x more than Plan B's stock to flow model. Now, Timmer's demand model is more inclined towards reflecting the bottom of the Bitcoin price. And on the other hand, the stock to flow model seems to provide a better approximation for the peak of the king coin. However, it's worth noting that the disparity between these two models widened significantly beyond the year 2030. Again, here's where it gets interesting. The reason behind this gap is expected to be changing the value of the dollar. That's why it's so astronomical. Timmer proposes that the value of the dollar undergoes fluctuations over time when compared to other assets. For instance, if $1 was invested in stocks during the 18th century, its present day value would be about $4 billion. Similarly, Timmer implied that if $1 million is invested today, it can grow to $1 billion in a span of 20 years due to inflation. The melting ice cube, as Michael Saylor described money sitting at the bank as. This further revealed that the purchasing power of the dollar had significantly reduced due to factors like inflation and depreciation. Thus, Timmer's statement implied that keeping a fixed amount of dollars for many years may lead to reduced purchasing power due to the assets changing value. And over the last few years, an increasing number of companies are taking over the $1 trillion market cap. And as a result, it's foreseeable that in the next 20 years, the concept of a trillion dollar valuation will become more common. So much so that individuals themselves could be worth a trillion dollars or more. This scale of numbers may even reach the quadrillion range. Who do you think is likely to become the first trillionaire in the world? If I was a betting man, I'd throw it on CZ. He's currently the richest man in crypto. Maybe Michael Saylor, the CEO or founder of MicroStrategy, which currently controls over 157,000 BTC. We also have Barry Silbert, the owner of Genesis, which is the parent company of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, which currently controls over 600,000 BTC. These are all great candidates, but I do believe that the wealth of Elon Musk and the elite dollar gods of the realm, the Warren Buffetts, the Charlie Mungers, they're all going to be overtaken, I believe, by those in crypto, especially as the Bitcoin price continues on the rise. But what are your thoughts? Who do you feel will become the first trillionaire in the world? Let me know your thoughts in the comments right down below. So is this milestone still achievable for Bitcoin? Well, despite Bitcoin's historical growth, it had recently faced a significant setback. Bitcoin's network activity had diminished. But hey, we're actually back reaching all-time highs as far as the hash rate is concerned. And the network difficulty adjustment continues to do what it does best. And ultimately, there's no stopping it. So although Timmer's prediction may be considered far-fetched and lack empirical evidence, it doesn't completely dismiss the possibility of Bitcoin reaching such levels as $1 billion per coin, the concept of de-dollarization has gained stature, shifting global attention towards alternative currencies. This shift in focus is expected to drive the demand for assets like gold and crypto and Bitcoin. And with BRICS pushing for the fall of the dollar, the BRICS currency and Bitcoin are expected to continue to garner momentum. You're damn right. So how high do you think the Bitcoin price is likely to climb by the year 2038? Do you think that $1 billion per coin can be a potential reality? Let me know your honest thoughts in the comments right down below. And don't forget to check out Cryptonewsalerts.net for the full premium experience with video and to participate in the live Q &A. And I look forward to seeing you on tomorrow's episode.
"fidelity" Discussed on CoinDesk Podcast Network
"I love his optimism. But the important thing is, they're talking about it. They're diving in, they're trying to get educated. I think progress may not be the progress of the pace that we'd like to see, but it's definitely progress. It's massive. We had congressmen posting, you have to understand the difference between an algorithmic stablecoin and a collateralized stablecoin. The idea that they would have done that in 2018 is they were like, stablecoin, what? They've come a long way. Where do you see the biggest opportunities overseas? So, I live in New York State, and we have a regulatory regime out of the financial services that I think is relatively sophisticated. It used to have the reputation, the bit license of being very slow and hard to get, and it still is. But they've tripled their staff, they're all crypto-fluent, and they're actually regulating. And they have the rules that, an FTX couldn't have happened under New York regulations. So, it's very thoughtful. They're interacting with a lot of foreign regulators. So, I'm just an advisor to them. It's a very deep perspective, because this is what Maxine Waters got upset, because PayPal decided to launch their stablecoin under NYDFS regulations, right? Listen, you have a major sector of financial services that is not regulated by Washington that people forget about. The insurance industry, it's all regulated at the state level. So, if DC doesn't get its act together, I know you have a very small chance you'll be wrong. But if that's the case, if you took Florida, let me take it, forget Wyoming, but if Florida were to set up a DFS, so you had a red state and a blue state with sophisticated crypto regulation, they might just leapfrog whatever's going to happen in Washington. So, I think that's an optimistic take on it. It also plays on the idea that the United States is the ultimate decentralized system, right? It is one of its advantages. It kind of is pre-blockchain decentralization. All right, listen, four and a half minutes to go. Why don't we just explore really the number of advisors who, I mean, there seems to be interest in this space. People have been curious about it for some time. There's a number of prominent advisors who are out there promoting it. But the uptick is still difficult, right? We talked about custody and other things. What do you see as the single most important thing that needs to happen to get this community more engaged? We talked about the Bitcoin ETF, but what can be done? I'm not on the product side, but I can tell you what I get here from my internal partners. It really is a ton of education. We need to continue to educate, and we also need to continue to make the experiences easier. Because when I think about it, it's challenging. I heard many panelists speak over the course of the past few days talking about advisors need to spend more time advising and less time administering. And if we could help them do that, I think that could drive adoption. I'm an investment person. So I'd say, especially now, put half a percent of your clients portfolios in Bitcoin or more. It's a good time of long term because I'm afraid of government debt. And I just I don't know when that could may not be our lifetime, but that's the biggest risk to our financial system now, I believe. And then number two is cyclically. This is a great time because you've got the happening next next year in the second quarter. That's always been bullish for crypto, maybe less so as each cycle goes through, but it's been bullish. And the Fed has probably stopped raising rates or it's close to the end. So that's an actionable investment idea. I believe it. Does the sector break free of that risk-asset correlation? I mean, I'm not liking the word correlation, but is there that between other cryptos? Yeah, because it seems like there are times when crypto is sort of like doing its own thing, but certainly when it's been sort of through this rate cycle, it's been vulnerable to that. Well, just a couple of observations. I always say the Bitcoin is like an eight year old child, right? It's just a maturing asset. About a year ago, people were like, I don't need Bitcoin because it's highly correlated to NASDAQ. Now the correlation in NASDAQ is almost zero. Not that I love correlation, it's a statistic. So I think it's evolving over time. And yes, it is highly correlated to the rest of crypto right now. But I think that could change. Yeah, I think the high correlation is just straight fake news. I think it's legitimately untrue in a general sense. If you look at Bitcoin's history for nine out of the last 10 years, its correlation has been below 0.25. It was only in that one year of the most extreme QE we've ever had to S &P 500 has been below 0.25, which is effectively zero. It's only that one year with the extreme QE that the correlation spiked to like 0.5, 0.6, which still isn't that high. Like any asset, it's driven by multiple factors. Macro is one of them, but crypto specific is the other one. Historically, that's the primary driver. It's only because we had trillions of dollars of stimulus and zero interest rates. So if we're in that environment, of course, that's going to dictate things. But in any normalized monetary and federal environment, it's going to have a very low correlation to risk assets, effectively zero. At least that's what it's done historically. Pretty much everything became a risk asset or a non-risk asset. Tesla wasn't trading based on the number of cars it sold. It was just trading on a risk basis. But long-term, crypto is driven by crypto factors, which are not stock factors, which is what makes it so valuable in portfolio settings. Any final word from you? One thing I would just say is we talked a lot about Bitcoin and crypto. I would say personally, I don't think they're the same thing. Bitcoin is a crypto asset. Crypto as a broader thing, when people often talk about it, they're talking about smart contract platforms, decentralized application. Many of these tokens have different economics and they have very different fundamentals when you look at the technology. So I would just caution people to think about it. Yes, this is an alternative asset class, but they are not all the same. It's very late to start defining terms, but there's like 20,000 tokens out there. And when I talk about crypto, we just talk about the 100 or so that have some economic ecosystem involved. So it's software that someone is paying for some level of functionality related to that software. So yeah, that triggered my thought there. Alrighty. I think that's all the time we have for now. I didn't see there was a question about real-time settlement. Sometimes I didn't see it, but we answered that. I think there is, the answer is yes, there is going to be real-time settlement in the global financial system as a technology. Thank you so much for your time. A round of applause for the panel, please. Thank you. Today's show has been produced and edited by senior producer, Michelle Musso and associate producer, Ryan Huntington. Our theme song is The News Tonight by Shimmer. Thanks for listening.
"fidelity" Discussed on CoinDesk Podcast Network
"Yeah, I'm excited about everything that can be built. I like to think about sort of proven things the technology can do and then the barriers to scaling into tokenization. So we've proven through DeFi that you can run trading platforms that are as efficient or actually much more efficient than the largest centralized trading platforms in the world. We've proven through DeFi that we can process instantaneous loans on margin. We've proven that we can have $100 billion of stable coin volume and have that money move around the world instantaneously. And then the question is, what does it take to get to real-world assets? You and I were talking about this. I think there are two things, one of which we solve, or at least are on the path to solving. The first was scalability. Until two years ago, I think blockchains weren't built for the real world. They could only handle a handful of transactions. I think layer twos have gone a long way to solving that problem. And then the second is regulatory breakthroughs. But that to me is just a matter of time. Once you have the proof of concept this technology works, which you can see when you have Uniswap, which has zero employees, zero offices, no CEO, doing more trading volume than Coinbase, which is an incredible company. Once you see that that proof point happens, you just have to think, what are the necessary conditions for this to scale? And I think it was throughput, which we're solving or is solved, and regulation, which we'll get to somewhere around the world, will demonstrate that it works and then will be adopted globally. I think it's just a matter of time. But I think it's still face, right? People say, okay, what is the payoff here? What am I getting out of it? Why is this such an exciting thing? Like what is the value of tokenizing an asset? Because I mean, among other reasons, existing finance is terrible. I mean, it's so slow. Stocks are settling in a day, maybe two days, three days. Financial transactions take five days to settle. I can get an elephant delivered to my house in an hour from Amazon. But if I want to send a wire on a Friday, I'd be better off jumping on a plane with a suitcase full of cash. It's absurd. So it solves that. I think the financial transaction tax is calculated at something in the trillions of dollars, and that can be literally decimated. So we could remove 90% of that and return that to real people. The financial industry is too big. It's the only industry that hasn't been disrupted in a fundamental way by the internet. JP Morgan was founded in the 1700s. What other industry has a company that's the largest player that was founded 300 years ago? It doesn't exist, and I suspect it'll change. Michael, if I could just jump in on that for a minute. I think it's very interesting and appropriate. 15 years ago this week, Lehman Brothers went bankrupt. And Bitcoin and blockchain came into the lexicon as a response to that global financial crisis. And at the time, I was running an operation dealing with collateral management, different things, and just trying to get access to data that people agreed on. Tremendous amount of reconciliation. Here you have a shared source of truth. When you talk about DeFi, you see that you can automate collateral margin calls. You can automate settlement. It's done within seconds. It's cryptographically verifiable. You don't have to worry about whether or not it's been double spent. And I think a lot about transactions that are related to securities lending. And perhaps they are failing because the security is out on loan or it's been rehypothecated a number of times. You can't do that with a tokenized asset. So I think you have a higher degree of verifiability and certainly the transparency is there. But you touched on layer twos, which I think is fantastic because as we think about minimizing the variability around the transaction cost to settle on a blockchain, then we start getting into a higher scalability, people being more willing to participate because they can actually indicate what is their profit and loss going to be based on knowing that it's going to be something less than it might be if it were in the main chain. Since we're demystifying, why don't we just quickly give a definition of layer one versus layer two? Who wants to take that? Sure. I can take it quickly. A layer one is sort of the foundational layer. And what I talk to people about for an analogy is think about railroad tracks. Tracks are consistent. You can put any type of car on top of that railroad track and it'll be able to be pushed somewhere around the country. Layer two is when you take and add, build on top of that first primary layer, which is a settlement layer. So it could be a decentralized application. It could be roll-ups like Matt was talking about, but you sort of think about it as you cannot have the layer two without the layer one. And the layer one is where the final settlement happens. Yeah. So it's bringing all this efficiency and solving the gas fees, the higher prices, all of the stuff that's been a bit of a drag on Ethereum and others as well. Okay. So one of the things that I think is also important here is this kind of macro context. We talked a little bit earlier on, Jan, about there's an interest rate environment, rates have been going up. There's a geopolitical context here with Russia and China literally being booted out of the SWIFT network. And so how does this all play into these opportunities this technology brings? I mean, what the blockchain does, there's no way of controlling it, right? Which scares regulators, but that is the only kind of system that can compete with existing oligopolies and monopolies and credit cards and other parts of the financial ecosystem. So that's kind of it in a nutshell. I do think payments are very exciting. When you think about, I mean, hopefully we'll get to one day where I always put myself in your shoes, like, why do I care? And I think as a mutual fund and ETF sponsor, there are ways, okay, to shave basis points off of fund fees by getting rid of the QSIP monopoly, by getting rid of some of the inefficiencies in the settlement system or for SEC lending or whatever it is, because a lot of our funds do securities lending. It may not be glamorous, but hopefully one day we'll be at a conference and it'll be like, well, Fidelity, why aren't you using DeFi? Why aren't you using these decentralized exchanges for your foreign exchange transactions if you can save me two basis points on your international funds? It's the cost savings of technology ultimately. So that's what, I know there's lots of different ways to get there, but that's kind of what I kind of look at as the bottom line. How can we deliver cheaper solutions using the blockchain? And can we get there by just like this piecemeal approach, or is it going to take a huge player like Fidelity or BlackRock, or maybe it's this Swift working with Chainlink now on proving these interoperable tokenization exchanges? My answer to that is we don't know yet. I draw the analogy to another database revolution. Databases used to be inflexible. Then there's something called the relational database, which came around 50 years ago, but that didn't become an investable trend in and of itself. So there's two ways this can go. It could be kind of crypto companies that adopt the blockchain faster and provide use cases like a Uniswap or others, or it could be the visas of the world that just take this technology, say it's great, or the Fidelity's, we've got the scale, we can save money for our clients and you won't know that crypto is being used. You won't know the end goal of reducing costs. It has investment implications for Uniswap or other tokens, but active investment managers, I think, can dance around that. Matt, what do you see as being the big, not so much the killer app, but the tipping point moment? I think it's never a moment. Maybe it looks like a moment in retrospect, but it's never a moment. I think we're going through that mainstream transition, which is what you're talking about. There are more stars that you can point to indicating that we're there than people acknowledge. You have Larry Fink who called Bitcoin an index of money laundering in 2017 and then called it able to transcend all currencies and revolutionize finance a few weeks ago. That's a pretty big swap. You have the world's largest asset manager allocating to crypto. You just have PayPal call stablecoins the future of payments. They have a whole page that says stablecoins for payments. They launched their own stablecoin into a very rough regulatory environment. You have Visa building on the settlement network. You have Nike that did $200 million in NFT revenue last year. They're just all of these large companies moving into this space at an increasing cadence. You have a Bitcoin ETF, which Jan thinks is coming in a few years and I think is coming in a handful of months, but it's certainly coming. I think we're moving into that mainstream era. I think it'll happen in a major way in the next three years. Everyone will be using blockchain applications without knowing it. That's kind of what I was saying in the other scenario. You're talking about basically Fortune 500 companies adopting the blockchain technology, delivering it to their tens of millions of customers and we may not be able to benefit from it as token investors. Is that fair? I think that's kind of fair. Although PayPal's stablecoin is built on Ethereum, Nike's NFTs are issued on the Ethereum blockchain. I think you participate indirectly, but if you wanted a holistic portfolio, you would buy crypto assets, you would buy crypto equities, you would buy mainstream companies that get it. If you wanted to be aggressive, you would short mainstream companies that don't get it. I think that would give you the coverage you're looking at. Can I push for maybe a consensus here? Because I think everyone wants actionable investment ideas. One of the conversations we've had is be bearish the banks because the banks are sitting ducks in the United States for the technology disruption and the regulators are saying you can't touch it. I don't know. If you can't stomach holding Bitcoin, you should leave short banks? I think they're... I don't know. That's what I'm asking for. That would be my belief. I would be concerned. I think when you look at technologies, you have to look at the winners and the losers. I would love your perspective on this as well. I'm not going to comment on that. We have great relationships with our custodian banks. What I will say though is this. I think many of the banks are already exploring blockchain technology, but not public blockchain. There's a lot of exploration of permission, private networks. They're working to take out some of their costs. Some of them are working to support assets that may move on a public chain as well. So, I think it's important to understand there's a debate that's been around forever. It's public or it's permission. Oftentimes, you see these very tight camps. It's one or the other. I think the banks are trying to explore how to play both sides. I think many people see value in both sides. Let me just be a little bit more nuanced. I think US banks are more hamstrung by regulators because they're very hostile to crypto right now than banks overseas. There's a lot of crypto. Basically, the rest of the world has enacted crypto regulation in one extent or another from Hong Kong to Brazil to Europe. It'll all go into effect in the next six months or so. I think they're working with their banks to try to do what you were talking about, which is facilitate the use of this technology enthusiastically because it's better for customers. You're right. So, we look across Europe, you see the markets and crypto assets legislation, you see the DLT sandbox, and they're literally selling transactions against stablecoins, but they're limited value. So, just put in context, the banks can support only X number of stablecoins. It's relatively small. I can't recall offhand, but I think it is definitely a different environment overseas. It's an interesting moment in some respects that this technology that could upend 500 years of the way finance has been handled, possibly the most disruptive idea ever, the US is looking like it might be the true laggard in. Thoughts on that, Matt? I think we'll get it right eventually. I agree that we're the laggard right now, but I think we'll get it right eventually. I'm actually fairly optimistic about the level of understanding of crypto in Congress. If you go to Capitol Hill, and it's not actually just on the Republican side of the aisle, it's on both sides, their level of understanding has gotten a lot better over the last couple of years. So, we're behind, but I'm optimistic that we'll catch up. I could be wrong. Jan, thanks so much. Jan, I do want you to weigh in here, please. The House Financial Services looked at legislation and one side of the aisle walked away. That is true. It's not perfect yet.
"fidelity" Discussed on CoinDesk Podcast Network
"Maybe just a little bit of background on Fidelity's journey here, because I mean, you really were amongst traditional financial companies so much earlier than anyone else, I think. And tell a little bit about that where it began and why so early on there was so much focus on trying to understand and develop education around this. Sure. So Fidelity's journey into Bitcoin and crypto started back in 2014. And people were looking at this technology and this asset and questioning, well, what is it really? And we were given a mandate from our CEO, Abby Johnson, to go out and explore. So the organization that I'm part of is called Fidelity Center for Applied Technology or that the first thing we should do is understand the technology. So we began doing some proprietary mining, understand how does the algorithm work? What does it mean to participate in this network? What's it like to take possession of an asset? What can you do with it? And in part, because we saw that it was an interesting non-correlated or correlated asset, we also were looking at the blockchain technology and questioning, what else could we do? And because we're a private company, we have a long history of looking forward. And in FCAD, our mission is to look five, 10, 20 years and beyond into the future from a socioeconomic perspective and try to anticipate what might come from this. So through that learning and through those experiences, we realized that people would have challenges with understanding the assets. We went into a lot of education, then we realized that custody was going to be a key capability to bring forward. And that's what led to the birth of the Fidelity Digital Assets custody business. And from there, we've expanded. You have the opportunity to participate in a digital asset account. If a 401k sponsor chooses to make that available to their participants, they have an opportunity to allocate there that's serviced and custody by Fidelity Digital Assets. We've also had just tremendous amount of engagement on the research and development side. So I have one of the coolest jobs at Fidelity because I run a global organization that is researching blockchain and crypto around the world. And we think about some of the regulatory constraints here. We're trying to keep our heads up and look at what's happening around the world. And frankly, there are a lot of places that are moving at different speeds as a result. But because we are private, because we're global, and we're long term focused, we were given the freedom to go off and explore. And it's led to a very unique set of capabilities. We kind of talked, we weren't going to be talking about things that we're selling. And I think Fidelity just made a sales pitch, but it was impressive, nonetheless. And having done that, maybe for the purposes of equity, maybe a little bit about VanEck's journey. Sure. Well, we sort of turned the tide in 2017, when VanEck happened to start the first gold mutual fund in the industry in 1968, and just worried about whether Bitcoin would disrupt gold. So we decided that it might be a complement to gold in 2017. So that's when we started filing. We were the first established ETF firm to file for Bitcoin and Ethereum and a lot of these different funds that are coming to market, which is great, but it hasn't been first to file all the time in crypto land. But let me be a little bit passionate because we were talking a bit before about this. If we're demystifying, staying away from Ethereum and all these kinds of things, I went on vacation this summer to Europe and AmEx took 3% from the merchants. And then the spread on my Turkish lira transactions, because Turkey is not part of the EU, was like over 8%. And whether you can see cost savings in our relatively highly efficient financial markets, that's a little bit hard for me to explain to you. But as a customer, I can say that's ridiculous. And so when I see Visa partnering with Solana and cutting out one of the people who are biting at that 3% Apple, I'm excited. I think we see a lot of things in financial services that our shareholders are paying costs for embedded monopolies. I can go into it, but we want to get rid of that kind of stuff. We're more in a shareware environment, where lower costs are better for everyone. And talking about internationally, Brazil's central bank mandate is I want to tokenize everything. I want to digitize everything because I want to bring costs down for our consumers. And they built a bank payment network called the PIX payment network, where it's free from people to use cell phones, text messages or whatever, to transfer money from one normal bank account to another. So it doesn't just have to be using crypto technology. It's this whole digitization trend of making things better for consumers. That's what excites me about the blockchain. It's a tool to get around this established duopolies monopoly. Yeah. And I think we're going to move into some of these more interesting new applications that are emerging. I think they'll get to explore all of those efficiencies and opportunities that come out of it. But also just to round this out, Bitwise's journey. Sure. First, I would note something that may not be obvious, but speaks a lot to where we are in the evolution of crypto, which is these were the first two mainstream financial firms to enter into crypto. And the thing they share, which people didn't maybe comment on at the time, is they're both privately owned entities. So they had the freedom to do it. The fact that today it's not just these guys, but BlackRock and Franklin and every other major publicly owned company, as well as Visa and PayPal, et cetera, speaks to how much progress we've made, even in the last five years, because Fidelity was extraordinarily early and VanEck was extremely early. But now everyone has come on board. And I think people assume there's a continuum, there's actually a step function from you guys to where we are today, which is really significant. Bitwise, so we can move on, is a specialist crypto asset manager. We've been in the market for six years. So we came to this market, Denovo. We're the largest crypto index fund manager in America and indeed the world. And we're unique that we serve financial advisors. So we serve a couple thousand financial advisors. We think much of crypto has been built on retail self-directed individuals and some on institutional, but the next major adopters are actually financial advisors. And so those are the thousands of people we serve today. And hopefully the tens and 20s of thousands of people will serve in the future. Great. Okay. Let's just change tack a little bit here. You know, I think like if we're just thinking about prices, clearly, you know, this isn't, we're in the trough. It's not been a great couple of years for crypto. Prices have been pretty stagnant and we've come off from some big highs, but there's actually, you know, as there always seems to be in these moments, you know, the Biddle moment, which is a play on build, the Biddle periods happen during these quiet lulls. And the buzz of the moment seems to be a revival of something that we've been talking about a few years ago, but it now seems to maybe have some real legs behind it because of the, precisely, I think, because of the institutional interest in this. And that's real world assets, this tokenization concept. And I think maybe we could just break that down. Cause I think to me, it feels like one of those topics that's accessible to advisors and others, because you can just start talking about what you could do with assets that they're already familiar with. You don't have to get your head around what is Bitcoin and what is Ethereum or Ether, but rather, okay, I got a house. What could I do with that? And maybe, maybe Jason, cause I know you and I were chatting about this, like, what do you see the opportunities and the potential for tokenization? I think tokenization is a really interesting attribute of blockchain because what you're really talking about is the way to represent an ownership record. And when we think about how things are done today, there's lots of archaic systems and lots of intermediaries that come in and can delay the processing. And I think it's important just to make a distinguishment for a moment between what is a native digital asset that only exists on a blockchain versus creating a digital twin or tokenizing a real-world asset. And when we think about the tokenization of real-world asset, we've seen real estate activities, we've seen commodities that people are tokenizing, but the point of tokenizing for some is to try and make the asset more accessible. And we see a lot of commentary around fractionalization or improving liquidity, improving transparency, but when it comes down to it, you need to make sure that you still are honoring the property rights and that those property rights can be represented. And one of the very interesting things personally to me is that you may be able to actually embed compliance into the token itself. So you can program these assets in a way that you have greater operational efficiency in supporting them. Yeah. Can I fight with your question? So you said the last couple of years have been tough, but since 2017, when we started getting involved, Bitcoin was at $3,000 a coin. So I think this is a misperception in the world where there was a lot of breakage. A lot of people came in at the wrong time and have lost money, but there are a lot of very happy crypto people. And when crypto people hang out, they basically ask themselves, when did you get involved? Because that basically tells them how much walkaway money they have, right? If they say 2011, you're like, oh my God, right? I mean, there's been $700 billion or whatever it is of wealth created. Anyway, bringing it to this context, there are prospects and clients who have a lot of crypto wealth and they're happy. That's my point. There are a lot of upset investors. I get it. And we try to do our best with education. And the question is, how are you going to reach those crypto native clients? And I think it's yes, it's through products that are wrapped in ETFs and things like that. But I think there is also getting to where they custody their assets with an established custodian and having the software tools to look into those assets. So you as an advisor know how much wealth they have and those tools are coming. And so it's not getting them to get away from their own wallets because they're going to keep them. They've worked very well, especially after FTX. People want to self custody to a certain extent. The SEC is attacking Coinbase and the other custodians, but get the information flow, get the software tools, make sure your vendors are able to see what the younger generation owns because you might be surprised. And so I think that's the to do and that's the business opportunity for RIAs. And I know you work with a lot of RIAs too. Yeah, it's huge. In some respects, that is what a blockchain revolution is. It is an information revolution. It's about bringing all this data on chain and being able to have this record of integrity that goes all the way back. I know you've thought a lot about the various things and the various tools that could be built on all of that, Matt. Yeah, I'm really excited about the tools. I'd add to your performance points, the best performing asset class in the world this year. Bitcoin's up 50 plus percent. Crypto stocks are up on average 100 plus percent. This year feels a lot like 2019, which also felt terrible, which felt a lot like 2015, which also felt terrible. The world ends in crypto every four years like clockwork and we're PayPal's US dollar equivalent stablecoin designed for digital payments and Web3 transactions. PayUSD is the only stablecoin supported by PayPal. Built on Ethereum, it's compatible with the most widely used wallets, exchanges, and dApps and fully backed by US dollar deposits and cash equivalents. 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"fidelity" Discussed on CoinDesk Podcast Network
"No comment. When he does, we'll see if he changes his tune. But Jason, Fidelity obviously very interested in all of this. How important is it? Is it getting this particular approval? There's just been so much attention on it. And clearly, it would be a product that a lot of the people at this conference would now be able to offer to their clients who would prefer that means of gaining exposure to Bitcoin or whatever other crypto ETFs come afterwards. But like, how important is it for the adoption of the technology and investing in it? Michael, I think it's important. But I think in the interim period, people are finding ways to get exposure to the assets. And from a Fidelity perspective, for a long time, we've been looking at this asset, listening to our customers, I think this asset, particularly Bitcoin, but we're looking beyond that. And what we found is you really need to do a lot of education. So as quick as an ETF happens or doesn't happen, what's most important right now is you're engaging with people and helping them understand the ecosystem, the user experience, and whether or not this is an appropriate asset for them to invest in. But I do think the structure of the product is appealing, because it will give people the opportunity to get the exposure in a format that they're familiar with. Yeah, I would just say, I think it's a game changer for a number of reasons. I think it's been like our white whale, and we have to slay it before we can move on. I also think about the gold ETF in 2003, which really transformed gold from an asset that wasn't part of the mainstream into an asset that is part of the mainstream. And I think there's no real reason to believe crypto won't do that. I think the other ways that you get access to it are just helping people who want to get in front of that train, just like the gold funds that existed prior to gold ETFs. Jan's firm ran probably the best one was a way for people to get ahead of the mainstream adoption of that asset class as well. You've got a view on how to view Bitcoin through the kind of lens of gold, right? I mean, you do think that that's where it conceptually goes? Yeah, I mean, I'd like to speak to the crypto skeptics in the crowd. Are there many out there crypto skeptics? There's one. Speak to you. You're welcome here. You are welcome. I think there have been a lot of macro speakers at this conference who have talked about the big budget deficits. And for some people here, gold is an alternative, and I think Bitcoin is alternative too. And I think what's interesting to me about BlackRock is, not to speak for them, but in their macro strategies, they do allocate to Bitcoin. They just look at it as another tactical trade, not when the Fed is tightening, is that the best trade? But maybe now that they're almost done with that process. So it's just a normal, I think, investment without getting too hung up on the technology and anything else. You can participate, as Matt said, you can buy a futures ETF today. You can get it directly through Fidelity. It's accessible. And I think it's normal for some investors to participate. But custody still is a barrier, right? I mean, that's presumably why there's so much focus on the ETF because nobody wants to, it seems like a lot of people still do not want to sell custody. What's Fidelity's take on? I mean, you have your own custodial service and you've just launched some details about that. So we do offer custodial services on Bitcoin and Ethereum. The Fidelity Digital Assets team came forward in 2018 to make that available to institutions. Over time, we have expanded that to retail investors through the Fidelity crypto product. And just recently, we made it available to wealth advisors through Wealthscape, which is Fidelity's institutional platform. So when we think about what people need, custody is a risk. And by providing a solution that is both secure and institutional grade and gone through appropriate controls and testing, we feel like we've been able to help address what is one of the major obstacles for people to come into the space by offering the custody product. But I also want to just touch on, again, it's beyond that too. It's user experience and education that will help bring people in. And I'm just thankful that we have an allocation of resources. We're going out and actively doing that just to help break down what are those perceived barriers.
"fidelity" Discussed on CoinDesk Podcast Network
"This episode of Money Reimagined is sponsored by PayPal. You're listening to Coindesk's Money Reimagined with Michael Casey and Sheila Warren. I see a lot of panels that get called demystifying crypto, but we're going to this is it. This is the one we literally are going to demystify it, right? Because it's it's still a mystery to a lot of people for some strange reason, but this is it. The total and utter complete demystification of crypto. I got an incredible panel, actually, guys, this is you want to call on some experts, some rock stars in this space. These would be the gentlemen that you'd want. We're represented by Fidelity, by Van Eyck, by Bitwise, all of whom have really been so much more driving into this space than anyone else really in this industry. So it's going to be a good ride, I think. Maybe a bit of a show of hands, because if we're demystifying, you know, show of hands, who knows what HODL represents? Okay, that half. We've got one down there already. So that's pretty good about half. But Jan, why don't you just do the honors and explain the HODL story. So at least, you know, it's got some reference. Well, I mean, there's a lot of communication in the Twitter and the crypto community on Twitter and Signal and Telegraph and other kind of alternative social media. HODL stands for Hang On For Dear Life, which means, you know, be a longtime investor and holder of Bitcoin. My favorite phrase is FUD, Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt, which represents all the misinformation. But since we're demystifying, we don't need, we can forget what FUD stands for. This is a FUD-free zone. However, we are going to start talking about Washington where there has been some FUD. Look, the thing that is, we'll just get the elephant in the room out of the way first. And that is, you know, when are we going to get a spot Bitcoin ETF, right? Because it's all dependent on the say so of a certain regulator. And we've been down this road for quite a long time now. But a number of institutions, BlackRock over there, Bannock, others are all in this space, Fidelity, all of you are playing in this space. I want to know when you think it's going to happen. Why don't we start with you, Jan, as well. Like, when is Gary going to give us the okay? My dad used to say, you know, pay attention to what people say, because often they do what they actually say. And it seems like the chairman of the SEC has no interest in approving a spot Bitcoin ETF. It may go to political levels higher than that, but I'll stick with that. So unless you have a change in parties in power, I just, I don't see it happening. I'm a little polluted by my law school background, which always says that, yeah, the law is one thing, but look at the power structure. And lawyers can always come up with different excuses for different things. So I'm sorry to be the negative outlier on this panel, maybe, but that's kind of my view. Whenever the Republican president gets elected. Okay, so possibly a long time, possibly not. Matt, though, you're a little bit more optimistic, I think. Yeah, I'll take the under on that, Jan. Another way of viewing this SEC commission under this chairman is it's the first commission that approved a ETF with the word crypto in its name. It's actually a bitwise ETF. It's the first commission that approved a 40-act Bitcoin futures fund. The first commission that approved a 33-act Bitcoin fund. First commission that looks likely to approve Ethereum futures funds. Approved a 2x levered Bitcoin futures fund. Compared to all the commissions that came before us since the Winklevoss filed for the first Bitcoin ETF in the 1930s or whatever, this commission has made a lot more progress. And I think they're sort of boxed into a corner where I think there's a reasonable probability that we'll get a spot Bitcoin ETF. I'm not certain, but I think there's a good probability. And I think they've actually done more on ETFs, even though I don't think they're favorable to crypto, they've done more on ETFs than any other commission before them. And they probably don't get enough credit for that. They certainly don't in the crypto industry. That is a rare perspective, actually. He clearly has not received enough subpoenas.
"fidelity" Discussed on Bankless
"Yeah, I totally agree. And I will say that that is an argument that Bankless has crafted from the very beginning. We sort of saw each of the asset as kind of an inspiring money in 2019 when it was much less popular to do so. And so I am very content with you guys putting out a research piece and saying, aspiring money, right? Now, people can make various predictions on how it can increase in its money-ness. So one thing we are particularly bullish on in Bankless is this idea of Ether being used as kind of collateral. We call it economic bandwidth inside of not only the Ethereum network, but this expansive network of Layer 2s and being a denominator of debt and increasing in money-ness that way. And then we're also very bullish on the Internet bond kind of narrative where you have staking a productive asset. All of those things are sort of feeding into that. So we are even more bullish probably than this research paper on that aspect. But I am quite content to just name it and just say, hey, to the extent this asset achieves money-ness and becomes more like money, it will increase in value. And that, I think, is pretty unique about these assets like Bitcoin and Ether and maybe some other crypto assets that are emerging. I don't think that, well, you guys correct me, I'm sure Fidelity publishes all sorts of research papers on various stocks and assets and that sort of thing. It's probably like, who else gets that designation? Like gold, silver, I don't know, oil even gets that? Bitcoin and Ether. Is there like anything else that is in the competing for money-ness game? Yeah, I think to Jack's point, there's different things that can have monetary premiums embedded in them. And so, well, I guess two core foundations we try to push on the research side is intellectual honesty is one and trying to be humble and realize a lot of this stuff is subjective. Like in terms of the field of economics, we say value is subjective, right? And so, you know, from an intellectual honesty standpoint, we don't know exactly where this is going to go. But with this paper, we're just trying to say, hey, if we put our flagpole out there with Bitcoin first and we said, we think Bitcoin is an aspiring form of money, we need to be fair and say, well, then why don't you think Ether is? Now, we have disagreements even within our own team. I'm a little more in the camp of I don't think it's going to achieve the money-ness and scale like Bitcoin will for the reasons we put out in that paper. But I have to be intellectually honest, I could be wrong or there could be corners or pockets like Jack's talking about where it already is money, de facto money. People are pricing their stuff in it and they're not going back to Bitcoin. They're not going back to fiat. So that's another thing to think about. We've heard so many different phrases for what is Ethereum, right? Is it a world computer? Is it digital commodity or digital oil? Is it the money? Is it a platform or a business that sells block space? And that's where within this paper, we just broke it down into two of those and try to like kind of pull it all in together and walk through each of those theses. And like Chris said, on the money front, I think we would still probably craft the argument that Bitcoin's absolute supply scarcity that it's had since day one versus Ethereum's kind of changes that it's made over time that have been relatively arbitrary. I think they've been more arbitrary than probably like most in the Ethereum community realize or have made the point to discuss. But at the same time, it's working. It's worked. So we have to admit to that. Right. It's worked. It's a money to some people, like Chris was saying. And so that is one thesis. But at the same time, you don't have to align yourself with a single thesis for anything. Right. There's optionality if you own the asset. Right. And you view it as like our second thesis here, which is probably the framework that we would view it through primarily, which is there are applications that can be built on top of it. If they are more useful, there will be more fees. And if those fees are paid, then they flow down to stakers. Right. In the form of yield and burn, which we're going to talk about in a minute. But at the same time, you still get optionality on the fact that some people view it as money and maybe that continues to grow in the future. Yeah, that's great. You know, every investor kind of has to make their own decision on that, for sure. You know, we could talk a lot about how bullish Bankless is on Ether as an aspiring money, but we've done that. We've done those episodes before. We could do it. We could do it, though. I'm happy to do that any time. Let's get to kind of the second point of the thesis. And this kind of maps to a thesis that Bankless has had and David and I have had for a long time for Ether, is this idea of Ether as a triple point asset being like, number one, inspiring money, a store of value. And then number two, kind of a commodity. I guess block space is really the commodity, but it's the asset used to buy the commodity. And then number three, a productive asset. It's almost like a capital asset or a cash flowing asset. And that's what we see in kind of your thesis, too. So this idea, I think the section is titled Investment Thesis Number Two, Ether as a yield bearing asset. So could you talk about that? That is the non moneyness side of this equation. This is just like looking at almost like discounted cash flows and trying to predict that over time. And this must seem similar in a lot of ways to the analysis of a real estate property or the analysis of a stock or something like that where you can use discounted cash flows. Anyway, Chris, could you talk about that? So what is thesis two here? Yes, thesis two came out of the fact that we had the merge and Ethereum transitioned successfully to proof of stake. And so now you can stake your Ether and get a yield or a cash flow. Right. And so this changes the game completely from Bitcoin, where you've got that more commodity like nature, like gold, where you can own it. And if people adopt it and buy it, you can, you know, realize the capital gains as the price goes up. But you're not getting a dividend. You're not getting a cash flow, just like gold sitting in a vault. Right. I mean, to be honest, that's what it is. And there's some good things about that. But now Ethereum has completely differentiated itself by being this yield bearing asset. And so now we can bring it even more into the traditional finance world. So I come from this world. I've mostly done equity analysis and done the whole CFA program, all that stuff. And the first thing you learn is every financial asset's value is theoretically dependent on its future cash flows. Well, now we've got future cash flows. Right. And so we can bring out our good old DCF that you mentioned. It's not like that. We actually apply a discounted cash flow model itself to this. And you can say, OK, here's what I think the revenue will be. I'm going to project it out this far. I'm going to grow it this much per year, maybe taper that down after 10 years. What they call a two stage model is what we do. And then you got to apply a discount rate to it. Right. And so these inputs, you know, there's only a few and they seem simple, but they're highly subjective. And of course, changing them changes the value that you get by a lot. So they're very sensitive. Right. And we run a sensitivity analysis as well. The point of all of this is not the actual numbers. The point is we can actually show a discounted cash flow model for this. And that's a big deal, especially to traditional finance managers. They can now get their head around this. They can now think of, you know, similar ratios like PE ratios and all this kind of thing. So that's the point we want to drive home saying you can do this now. Here's a very simplified model and what it would look like. It's up to you, though, to put in your discount rate because everyone's discount rate is a little different or it's up to you to put in your growth assumptions. The point is we can now do it. And that's what's really driving that second thesis. Very cool. Yeah. One thing we say about Ethereum and blockchains in general is what do blockchains do? Blockchains sell blocks. And so when you're talking about the cash flow that Ethereum generates, it's from the act of selling the blocks themselves and getting a transaction in that and then also selling the ordering of the transaction in that block space. And I see you guys cover both kind of transaction fees and MEV here. Jack, I'm wondering if you could kind of break down the model. So what generates the cash in your cash flow model for Ether, the asset? Yeah. So like Chris said, you can make a model as complex as you want it to. So we could have broken it down into like parsing out tips from the burned portion, from potential MEV capture. But instead, we said, let's throw all of that out the window because we're not trying to get to an exact number here. We're just trying to show you that there is a relationship between network usage and the fees that are paid to theoretical value accrual and what you might consider fair value because you can discount it like cash flows from a business where you project them out in the future. You discount them by a risk-adjusted cost of capital and then you get a present value of those future cash flows. And this whole thesis, I would argue, didn't exist three years ago. Before EIP 1559, the merge in Shanghai, you didn't have this, right? Because proof of work meant that all these rewards were going to miners. And so it wasn't asset holders who had the optionality to stake the asset and earn the yield. That didn't exist. The thesis that you had before was ETH as money, ETH as a commodity to pay fees on the network. But there wasn't the tokenomics or value accrual there until you went to proof of stake. And then you created this linkage. And we just used fees in our model as a very simple way to say fees are going to spit out as burned, automated buyback effectively. It's kind of like a share buyback, token buyback that's algorithmic and automated. And then the rest is going to flow down into the tips that are paid out. There's an issuance element and you could have baked in the issuance that stakers get versus non-stakers. And so you're technically owning a little bit more of the pie if you stake because whatever it is, one third of ETH is staked and two thirds isn't. And so you're kind of gaining relative to non-stakers as well. Like you can make these models very comprehensive and complex. That wasn't the point of what we were doing here. So we just simply use fees and then we used a very simple projection into the future. There's so many elements that are going to impact what those future fees and cash flows look like. We mentioned L2s. That's going to completely change the fee dynamics on Ethereum for better or for worse. And that will change the value accrual to the ETH token. And that's why the use cases are still speculative on top of Ethereum. You could make arguments there with L2s, maybe value accrual changes, or maybe both of those are great. Maybe we get more regulatory clarity. We've got real world assets on chain. We've got more institutions that are able to interact with these networks. Like that's the bullish side. And L2s mean that fees will be lower for the average user, but volume will make up for it on L2s. And so value accrual will be better for ETH. And you can model that bullish assumption out and you can get to a theoretical fair value. Or on the other side, you could say that all of these use cases are highly speculative. The NFTs have crumbled in large part, right? Their values have fallen 90 percent or more in most cases. And that it's just speculative users that are left and this isn't going to reignite and users aren't coming back and L2s will reduce fees and therefore the tokenomics get worse on Ethereum. You can model both of those out, but we're just showing you that you can actually model it here. A little bit of this conversation, and Chris, especially with some of the tone that you said, we can actually show a DCF model. One of the age old ideas that we've had about Ether, the asset and proof of stake and EIP-1559 is that all of these produce metrics. And kind of just like what Jack said, for better or worse, the metrics are produced. They are things that we can objectively measure and show and report on. Another old meme that we haven't articulated in a while is the most bullish case for crypto is to be understood. If we can understand these things and we can put these into form factors that are already preexisting, all of a sudden it legitimizes what we are doing here. We are not creating these crazy harebrained crypto economic patterns that don't exist outside of the laws of nature. As soon as these things find their way into maturity, they start to look and feel like the old models that have emerged that are a tried and true science. So like, regardless of what is actually going on in crypto, the fact that we are able to match these patterns that institutions already have has always been one of the bull cases I've thought about for specifically proof of stake in the EIP-1559. Chris, can you just talk about just like the value of having these metrics in a vehicle to become adopted and accepted by previously concerned people of the capital of the world? No, I think you hit a lot of stuff right on the head that I would say myself are completely agree with, which is, you know, we talked about me being Bitcoin first and approach to people saying, hey, understand this first. It was not only first, but technologically it's simpler. I still believe that, but I think you make a great point, especially with traditional investors that you could probably more easily go to them with something like ether and show them these things. And they would grasp that much quicker than the investment thesis for Bitcoin. And the reason I say that is, is because what you were talking about, like your lecture of first setting up, going through the history of money, like that's what you got to do with Bitcoin. You got to get into philosophy and politics and economics and game theory and all of these kind of esoteric things. Whereas ether, you know, we haven't tried this really in practice, but I imagine that you could probably get in front of an institutional investor and say, look, here's the metrics, here's the cashflow, put in your inputs. And they're looking at it like another financial instrument and they're like, oh yeah, that makes sense to me. And then to Jack's point, you know, Jack was talking about kind of these extreme bull bear cases. That's exactly what institutional investors do too. It's not about making point predictions with these models of a certain price. It's about getting their head around the probabilities, right? Investing is a game of probability. So now you can start playing out these scenarios and you can get some guardrails about what you think are the ranges that this thing could trade within. Now I'm not saying those aren't wide. They should be very wide because it's very volatile. There's a lot of risks. There's a lot of unknowns, but the point is we're not just sticking our finger in the air and going, oh, ETH could trade anywhere between a thousand and a hundred thousand. Like, no, like here we can put down some parameters of what that means in practice. It means adoption gets to this. It means you get this many users. It means fees go to this amount. And that's the point. You can have these scenario analysis where you can now get your head around the probabilities and then that way people can size their position accordingly. That's how an institutional investor thinks. That's how a good investor thinks. They think around probabilities, scenario analysis, and that's what you can do now with these things, which is kind of neat. It's really a simple model is how much is the world willing to spend on Ethereum block space? That's it, right? Like what's the demand for that in terms of dollars? And Ryan, I think the useful context is, at least in recent history, since Ethereum has moved to proof of stake, is there's actually sustainable, positive cash flow at the moment amidst a bear market where there is evidence that people are still willing to pay fees. And that means that there is a positive real yield. It's not just issuance of new tokens. In fact, it's the opposite. There's more burn taking place than there is issuance because issuance lowered after the merge because you don't have ongoing high electricity costs like you do with a miner. So you lower issuance. The burn is greater than your issuance and you have fees paid to stakers. So there's a positive real yield on Ethereum. If you look at a lot of other proof of stake networks, it's mostly just an issuance like subsidy to bootstrap security taking place. And there's not really much in terms of fees being paid. So there's kind of this evidence of like blue chip block space that Ethereum has relative to its competitors because of its network effects, because of the number of applications on top of it. And so it's up to ultimately Ethereum to defend that as competitors continue to kind of encroach with alternative app chains or monolithic L1s. Like you guys had a great episode with Mike Ippolito talking about Solana Cosmos Ethereum. And I thought that was a great way to kind of frame it. And Ethereum does have that, I would argue, kind of blue chip leadership. And that's why it's valued the way that it is. And it has real fees. But can it defend it moving forward and continue to grow as we move ahead? That will ultimately dictate whether or not the cash flows are highly positive and continue to grow. And the DCF model indicates that its value is accruing. So I understand DCFs as a model, but when it comes to actually like producing one and then comparing those outputs to other outputs for other assets, this is not something I've practiced. So I want to ask a potentially pretty narrow question. On page 16 of your guys's report, there is some actual outputs from the DCF model that you guys have put together. And just like, you know, loosely as a vibe, how does the outputs of the Ether DCF model compare to this, I don't know, like the amalgamation of other DCF models out there? Like where is that needle in terms of comparison? How good are the outputs looking? Yeah, I'll just say if you look at what we have, and again, it's just for illustrative purposes, but I think the biggest thing you'll note is I think we, Jack, you kind of centered around is the median cost of capital of 10 percent. In normal finance world, that's pretty high. So we're kind of already, you know, guiding to at least just like you should probably use a higher cost of capital because this is a lot riskier. So, you know, something like a regular blue chip stock that would have a much lower cost of capital, right? These companies are much safer. They've got more predictable cash flows, been around a long time, and they have access to really cheap capital. So that's just kind of one point I could probably put out there. And then, of course, everyone knows the growth rate is the one that moves the needle the most. So as an analyst, what that tells you is that's where you should focus your time and attention and energy, figuring out what's the best input for that growth rate. Yeah, there's a little trick to anyone that's taken like a corporate finance class and played around with these models enough, and it's change your terminal growth rate. Right. So in most of these models, you're modeling out five to 10 years of where do we think these fees or these cash flow, how do we think it will grow? And then you have a terminal growth rate where the perpetuity of cash flows from your final projected year, which is like in this model, we go out to 2030 and then we use, if you look at it, a terminal growth multiple or a terminal growth rate of 5% into the future. And if you look at the present value of the actual fee estimate on the paper, nearly all of the value of Ethereum is in cash flows that are going to come from your 2031 into the future. Right. Because it's projecting in perpetuity and eventually the present value is so low because the discount rate discounts those future cash flows and money in the year 3000 is worth a lot less to us than money today. Right. And so the secret in the DCF sauce, I guess, is look at the terminal growth rate. That's going to drive a lot of the value that you come back with. And when you're saying comparing it to other DCF models of other networks, it all has to do with what assumptions you put in in terms of where the fair value is today versus the actual price. Because if you assume that Cosmos is going to figure out their tokenomics and that fees are going to grow in the future at a very high rate, well, then, yeah, you're going to get a very bullish scenario the same way you would with Ethereum. Right. So it's all about your modeled inputs. And here's another really, really useful trick that I use all the time as an equity analyst, which is take the market price today. Don't make your assumptions from the bottom up. Take the market price today and reverse DCF it. And so what I mean by that is that's what we did here. Yeah. You take what ETH's trading at today and you say, what is it assuming? And then you can get to that growth rate. And of course, it's a combination of the growth rate and the cost capital. But let's say your cost capital is more or less fixed. And you're really just focusing on that growth rate and you get the growth rate. So you've made no assumptions yourself. You're just saying, what is the market telling me? And this comes from a person, the traditional finance space, Michael Malbeson, who completely rocked my world in the investing world because he set out this framework called expectations investing. What is the market expecting Ether to do in terms of growth? And then once I figure that out, that's a completely neutral thing to do. I'm making no value judgment. Then I can bring in my value judgment, say, do I think that's high or low? Is the market too bullish or bearish on this? Do I think it can exceed that expectation or is it going to fall short of that expectation? And that's the big question of whether you think Ether is over or undervalued. This growth rate that we have in this cash flow model, another mental model that we've used on Bankless is that these crypto networks are emerging economies. And I think maybe the growth rate is kind of making a bet on like the GDP of these emerging economies if my pattern matching is on target here. And I would imagine that when institutional capital allocators looking at this report, they're not really trying to measure like, OK, what's the growth rate of Ether versus Cosmos versus Bitcoin versus Solana? They're really like, I'm investing in economies. Perhaps I'm in the game of investing in emerging economies. How do these emerging economies compare to these crypto networks that are harder to understand but still have the same underlying patterns? Is my intuition correct here? Yeah, I think you're spot on where you're not going to look at them against each other unless that's your narrow funds, like you're a hedge fund that's trying to do that. If you're just a general investor, you're looking at the whole space and you want the whole space to grow. So to bring this back to traditional financing, you know, a lot of growth investors in finance, they want to be exposed to the growing industry because that's going to just naturally increase their probability or their hit rate of choosing a company that's going to grow, right? You don't want to try to find the best company in a dying industry. You want to find a bunch of companies in a growing industry and you're probably going to put the odds in your favor. So I think you're exactly right. The key thing is how is this whole space growing and is the whole space growing? And that's the key thing to look at, not, you know, these tiny little individual things. What's so interesting to me is not the number in and of itself, right? Because let's call it what it is. It's a wild ass guess as far as what the growth rate actually is. And as you guys were saying, you can make a DCF, say whatever story that you actually want to tell. The most important part of this report, and I think you guys publishing this and distributing it to institutional finance, I'll use that term again, is that it shows that there is a mechanism here and we had lever one, which is understanding Bitcoin, which is as a money, and that's still at play with ether. And now we have lever two where you have these crypto networks decentralized. They don't have a centralized corporation or a structure. And yet they are producing cash flows. They are producing revenue and plug in whatever numbers you want. Just that realization, I think, is important. And the other thing with ether that makes it, I think, so difficult to try to price predict in a DCF type model is you could get like the DCF number completely correct. But then thesis one sort of stacks with thesis two, right? So like the DCF number, at least in my world, like in my mind, under thesis two, that sets like the lower bound, the utility kind of price for ether. And then to the extent it becomes valued as a money and has store of value attributes, then you just add an amplifier on top of that in some way. So it's kind of stacking. And when you look at the price of ether, you're not sure what mixes at play. TradFi will not like this, but I'll call it shorthand meme value of money. Or is it more like utility value of block space at any one time? And if I'm looking at a price of ether, which is like sixteen hundred right now or something, what percentage of that is like monetary premium versus utility value? Anyone's guess. Nobody actually knows. That's very difficult. So anyway, it makes discovering what the value of these assets so fun, so interesting. And I am curious about this topic as we come to a close today, which is how has this report been received among institutional investors? So when they look at this, what do they say to you? What's the feedback been so far? Yeah, it's still coming in, but so far so good. I mean, it depends on the institutional investor, right? As we talked in the beginning of the show, they're kind of all over the place. So it's going to really resonate with some and not others. We did have a webinar where we focused this paper that we wrote and we had really high turnout. So there's interest there at the institutional base is interested in this topic. They're getting back to that point we made earlier. They're moving past some of the basic one on one stuff, and now they're starting to explore some of the other things there. So we'll see as it continues to roll out, these things tend to take time to trickle out and stuff. But so far, so good. I don't know if you have any anecdotal evidence, Jack, or anything else you've heard. Yeah, no, I think it's been positive. And Ryan, I think you make a great point. Value is always going to be arbitrary. The problem is, is just you need a framework as a traditional investor, especially a delegated asset manager or wealth manager that's managing a client's money, right? You can't just say, oh, I like ETH as a network and I'm going to speculate with my client's capital. You need some fundamental to grapple onto to say, hey, there's cash flows and if these cash flows continue to grow, like you come around to a thesis and maybe you have an idea of what you think that fair value could be someday or is. And then that allows you to actually get your investment thesis past a committee or explain to a client why you own the asset. And then at the end of the day, the way most allocators tend to act is like, OK, then they put whatever, one percent of their portfolio in Ethereum and they're not necessarily market to market all the time. But they do need to have a framework to get to the point to actually say, like, OK, there is an investment thesis here. And that's what we're trying to provide with a piece like this rather than here's the exact value of Ethereum. We don't know it. Nobody knows it. And it is largely arbitrary and speculative. But you need a theory or a thesis. And that's what we're trying to provide with a piece like this. So, guys, this has been fantastic. I'm curious what's ahead for Fidelity Research. Are you guys going to be putting out more about Ether? Of course, Ethereum is kind of an ever evolving landscape, so we have no idea what's going to happen with layer twos. There's this new upgrade, EIP 4844, that's going to make blob space really inexpensive. And oh, my God, try explaining blob space to TradFi. I'm sure that's quite the thing. But what are you planning in terms of reports? Are you going to cover more Ethereum stuff, more Bitcoin stuff? Are you getting into other crypto assets as well? What's next? Yeah, we'll certainly be covering both. We've done a lot with Bitcoin, but we'll continue to do stuff with Bitcoin as well. And then, yeah, like you mentioned, tons of stuff on the Ethereum ecosystem side. You know, it's kind of crazy to keep up with, but I guess good job security for us as researchers to continue to cover this. We have Max Waddington on our team who wrote this paper with Jack. He's got his ear to the ground with all the developer calls and the improvement proposals. So definitely see more coming out also from him. The next piece we have immediately, I believe, on Ethereum is this discussion around L2s. So it's a basic primer, once again, to get people at least familiar with these concepts, but then touching on that kind of tension of where does this go in the future? Do these L2s work, but then suck away fees from this base layer or do they grow together? And so that will be a nice little piece to start to introduce those concepts to investors. And again, all of this is written to the investor perspective, right? Why does it matter to them as an investor? And so that's what we try to do. We try to stay intellectually honest. And the other thing I say in terms of our research is it's a cliche. I do believe that we have a missionary mindset, not mercenary. We've been here a long time. We believe in the space. We'll continue to write and cover it and provide value in any way we can. Well, let's end it there then. Chris, Jack, this has been absolutely phenomenal. I'll echo what David said earlier in this episode. The most bullish thing for crypto is to be understood and you are helping the investor world's traditional finance understand it. You're also helping us, you know, in crypto apply old tools that are actually very useful, like discounted cash flows to our new emerging asset class and giving a bit more precision in terms of our decisions. So I want to thank you guys for coming on Bankless today and putting out this report. It's our pleasure. Thank you. Yeah, thanks. This is fun. Action items for you, Bankless Nation. We've got a link to the Fidelity report in the show notes. So you can go check that out. Also, got in with this. Of course, none of this has been financial advice. Not at all. You must know by now crypto is risky. You could lose what you put in, but we are headed west. This is the frontier. It's not for everyone, but we're glad you're with us on the Bankless journey. Thanks a lot. Thank you.
"fidelity" Discussed on Bankless
"Arbitrum is accelerating the Web3 landscape with a suite of secure Ethereum scaling solutions. Hundreds of projects have already deployed on Arbitrum 1 with flourishing DeFi and NFT ecosystems. Arbitrum Nova is quickly becoming a Web3 gaming hub and social dApps like Reddit are also calling Arbitrum home. And now, Arbitrum Orbit allows you to use Arbitrum's secure scaling technology to build your own layer 3, giving you access to interoperable, customizable permissions with dedicated throughput. Whether you are a developer, enterprise or user, Arbitrum Orbit lets you take your project to new heights. All of these technologies leverage the security and decentralization of Ethereum and provide a builder experience that's intuitive, familiar and fully EVM compatible, faster transaction speeds and significantly lower gas fees. So visit arbitrum.io where you can join the community, dive into the developer docs, bridge your assets and start building your first app with Arbitrum. Experience Web3 development the way it was always meant to be secure, fast, cheap and friction free. Bankless Nation, we are super excited to introduce you to Chris Kuiper and Jack Neurider. They are research analysts at Fidelity and they're here to talk about the Ethereum investment thesis from Fidelity's research perspective. Chris, Jack, how are you guys doing today? We're doing great. Happy to be here. Great. Thanks for having us. Well, thanks for writing this report. David and I were really excited upon seeing it published and reading it. And of course, bankless listeners have heard the Ethereum investment thesis ad nauseum from David and myself. But I think it carries a different weight coming from an esteemed organization like Fidelity. I mean, Fidelity has something like $5 trillion in assets under management. You guys are kings in the TradFi world. And so you give an era of credibility to the Ethereum investment thesis that a couple of podcasters just simply don't. And we want to get into this paper today. So are you game to go through it? Yeah, absolutely. Sounds great. So the white paper is entitled, the research paper is entitled, the Ethereum investment thesis will include a link to it in the show notes. And I want to kick it off with this because this is how it opens up. While users may get technological utility from the Ethereum network by accessing the various applications in the ecosystem, some may wonder, how does utility translate into value for Ether the token? That's a very good question. How do tokens like Ether accrue value? You go on. In other words, why would an investor buy and hold Ether the token rather than just use it to interact with the Ethereum network? That's what we're going to dive into today. Before we do, I'm just curious, Chris and Jack, can we get some background on why you guys are writing research papers on crypto assets like Ether? Sure. Well, I guess we'll start with a little bit about Fidelity Digital Assets. We are kind of quiet. Not a lot of people have heard about us, but hopefully that's changing a little bit here. But Fidelity Digital Assets is a subsidiary of the big Fidelity Investments that you mentioned, the big trillion dollar money manager. And so we are a separate entity dedicated to the digital asset space. Our history actually goes back almost a decade. We are not new to this. It goes all the way back to 2014 when Fidelity said, we need to understand Bitcoin. We need to understand the space. This is a potential disruptor. This is a potential way to create a lot of efficiencies for our business. And so they're always looking out for these things. They have an entire R &D center specifically dedicated to look out for seismic shifts or changes in technology. And so of course they heard about Bitcoin. And the first thing they did was they said, well, we got to get our hands dirty. We're not just going to read about it and write about it. So they started mining it in 2015. And so after they started mining Bitcoin, they had some and they said, well, we want to hold it, but there's no institutional enterprise grade product out there for us to hold it. So we're going to have to build it ourselves. And so that was the very first thing they did. That's how they scaled this business. And by 2018, they officially launched Fidelity Digital Assets, which is where Jack and myself sit. Our core products and services still include custody, so cold storage of Bitcoin. And to get to your point, about a year ago, we added capabilities of Ether now, and then we also have a platform and execution platform for buying, selling, and holding digital assets. So that's where we are today. We added Ether capabilities to our platform to buy, sell custody Ether, the token. And so we first wrote a paper about understanding Ethereum, the whole network, very primer 101 that all of your listeners are familiar with, but the traditional finance world wasn't familiar with yet. And then we followed it up with this paper saying, okay, you might be on board with Ethereum, the ecosystem, maybe you think this thing is going to succeed. But as you stated in the introduction, the question we wanted to answer was, well, why would you actually hold the token? Why would an investor buy and hold the token, just sit on it? Remember, our business is custody, so why would they just custody it with us rather than use it? And so that's what we're trying to address with this latest research paper that Jack and another colleague of ours, Max, wrote together. One dynamic that I wanted to parse apart here is the scope of institutional money, TradFi, and what they are looking at in crypto. In crypto, of course, there is a very long tail of risk that people can choose to pay attention to, right? Bitcoin on the very safe side of the spectrum, and then like pool to yield APYs on the very far end of the spectrum. And the story of institutional relations with crypto is, and our perception of institutions is how far down the risk curve are they looking? And, you know, historically, I would say Fidelity has been kind of a Bitcoiner org, kind of called Bitcoin safe and hasn't proceeded too far beyond that realm up until recent history. And maybe you guys can just kind of shed some light on what it's like to be in the institutional world and being looked at by trillions of dollars and how it relates to the risk that crypto presents, especially as we go further down the stream, further than Bitcoin. Can you shed some light on that, just dynamic? Yeah, I'll start and Jack can jump in here. But, you know, Fidelity has been around for over 75 years now, private company. And so just as much as a financial company, it's a risk management company, right? You do not survive over 75 years in the financial world unless you have risk management in your blood. And so that is probably just as important in our business as anything else, that risk management. And so it's funny you talking about Bitcoin being kind of the safe end of the spectrum and the other end is, you know, all this other DeFi stuff. That's kind of from your perspective, from the institutional perspective, any kind of digital assets, Bitcoin included, is still in the really risky bucket for them, right? Like it is. So you guys are the edgy ones at Fidelity. Absolutely. I mean, we were the first traditional finance company to kind of go down this path and we still are way out ahead of the curve here, I think, in a number of ways. And so it's funny to think about it that way. But yeah, that translates into what we do with our products. You know, we're maybe slower moving than a crypto native firm out there, but it's because we're doing it right. We're doing it from the ground up. We're doing it with this risk management in mind. And so that's why it was Bitcoin first for a while. And then we have slowly now added ether capability. So Jack, I don't know if you have any other perspective as well on that. Yeah, maybe just one thing to layer on to what you said there, Chris, which is great, is everybody uses the phrase, and we're even guilty of it too, of we support institutions and we run an institutional business. But at the same time, institutions can mean different things to different people. I think when you traditionally think of an institution, you think of the largest allocators in the world. So pension funds, endowments, sovereign wealth funds. And that certainly sits in the bucket. But what I would say from an actual token allocation standpoint, the largest entities of those sides are few and far between. A lot of them are getting up the education curve. But in terms of actual token allocations, it's sparse. And in terms of meaningful allocations to the space as a whole, there's not much of it. There's a little bit here and there in terms of venture, because the venture route is a traditional wrapper in feel, right? You don't have to think about all of the operational complexities and the same like due diligence that you do if you're going to hold in custody Bitcoin or Ethereum or digital assets themselves. And then from an actual adoption perspective, I think what we've seen is a lot of it comes from the smaller what we would consider institutional, which is more like wealth managers that have end clients. So family offices or registered investment advisors here in the United States, we see a lot of adoption in that category of investor because the end client is the one that's asking for it because there's still a lot of career risk embedded with owning digital assets. It's not totally normalized, even though we've come a long way. I think that's very important for listeners to understand as they get into this, because, of talking to a much more crypto savvy, crypto native type of audience. But from your perspective, you guys are the ones, maybe, you know, the talk of the office and go into the water cooler and here come the crypto guys, right? And even within that, even within Fidelity, Fidelity is kind of leading the charge. I mean, spinning up Bitcoin miners in 2015, other large asset allocators like the Black Rocks of the world aren't that far down the crypto rabbit hole. So you guys are sort of on the fringe on the fringe and your perspective is TradFi and they are massively under allocated to crypto right now. And so the assets that you guys have taken some time to research sound like Bitcoin, Ether, maybe there are a few others, but some of the kind of the main stage, lower risk crypto assets. But even those assets are considered extremely high risk to the rest of traditional finance. Maybe just to kind of level set the conversation before we get into the Ethereum report itself. So what does traditional finance and institutions and, Jack, you gave much more nuance to the term institutions. We're talking about family office and pensions, everything else. So appreciate that nuance. But let me come back to generalize. We'll continue to be blunt about it. Yeah, let me generalize it for a minute again. What do they think of Ether right now? I have kind of a sense that some institutions, maybe the more aggressive ones, they see Bitcoin. It's lasted for a long time. They're looking at Bitcoin and they're saying, okay, this is weird, but maybe proto like store of value type of assets similar to gold. And we kind of get it right. I feel like we've crossed that threshold, but maybe you can correct me. What do they think of Ether, the asset right now? Yeah, I think you're right on there. And that's where we focus a lot of our research and education to get people to understand Bitcoin first. And we wrote a report called Bitcoin First, why institutional investors should consider Bitcoin before everything else. And that wasn't to say they should only invest in Bitcoin or don't look at anything else. It was just if you're starting in this space, it makes sense to start here because Bitcoin was first historically. It's also the simplest in many ways, simplest in terms of the technology, the capabilities, but also relatively simple to get your head around some of the investment thesis and narratives. Right. And so I think you're right, Ryan. We've come to the point where the institutional investors are finally getting past the Bitcoin point. They're thinking, okay, I'm understanding this now. I've got my investment thesis. I've maybe even got my allocation, my risk parameters around this, how I'm going to approach it. And then they start to look at other things. Right. And then, of course, the second largest one by market cap is Ether. So it makes sense to go there next. But I'd say we're still pretty early to Jack's point on nuance of institutional investors. That's very clear here. It's going to be more of the venture cap, the crypto hedge funds, the people who are much further down the space. They're the ones that are going to be considering this. But, you know, it's starting to change. I think some people are coming around to this idea of, okay, if I've got a bucket or a sleeve to digital assets, do I start to diversify? And I think what's helped with that is just all the changes that Ethereum has gone through. It has set itself apart from Bitcoin even more. So switch to proof of stake and all of these things coming up. It's making its differentiated use case. And that helps with the diversification narrative with institutional investors as well. I'm curious if it's still so it has felt for a while like Bitcoin was kind of the king in TradFi sort of understanding it was just Bitcoin and Bitcoin kind of stood alone. And there was all the other weird crypto assets that maybe you don't need to know about right now. It has felt increasingly like it's Bitcoin and Ether. So these two sort of stand out. But I know a lot of people would say, well, once you accept the second, then you're just kind of opening the door to the entire long tail. So I guess I'm curious from your perspective. Do you still think that Bitcoin and Ether are kind of in a class of their own with respect to the investment thesis and risk? Or is it basically is it now like Bitcoin, Ether and all of the rest of the assets with Ether and understanding Ether? Do all of the other assets come or is it still in sort of a class of its own with respect to understanding? Yeah, maybe I can layer in a little bit here. There's a reason why we supported Bitcoin first and then we've added Ethereum support around a year ago. And that's sort of where we're at currently. And you have to think about all of the different considerations from the liquidity constraints associated with tokens further down. So just quite literally, is the asset liquid enough for there to be a significant trading volume on it? Two is what about the regulatory environment? Can we provide support for these assets or do they live in regulatory ambiguity? And even with Ethereum and ETH staking, we've seen that some of the ETH staking protocols, the SEC has gone after this year, some of the providers, centralized providers. And so there's still some level of regulatory ambiguity around Ethereum even. And so I would just say that, one, there's regulatory considerations, there's liquidity considerations. And then the third thing is just quite literally, they're the two largest networks. And even during this bear market, we could look at the entire ecosystem of cryptocurrencies, pull out stable coins because they're stable value. And if you look at the market cap of ETH ERC-20 tokens, so the Ethereum ecosystem, and combine it with Bitcoin, it's like 80 to 90 percent throughout this bear market because that's where all the users really are on chain. That's where we see users accumulating Bitcoin as a store of value asset. And we see users utilizing Ethereum and not driving burn and driving fees down to stakers. And so there's actually like stuff going on in these ecosystems, whereas it starts to get very experimental, very fast once you leave either of those two ecosystems, I would argue. And then also, we don't support outside of those two tokens because also there's not a ton of demand. We don't hear, if you go back 18 or 24 months ago when you had Solana, Luna, Avalanche, right? Soluna, Avax was like the saying. And we had some that were asking us, like, why don't you support these tokens? And at the time, we didn't even have support for Ethereum. So we were like, we don't even have Ethereum support yet. We're trying to consider and get that potentially up and running. How are we going to have all of these more speculative ecosystems up and running? And so there's a lot of other considerations, especially for traditional investors, given the regulatory environment as well. Yeah, and I'll just drive home Jack's point. You've got to take the perspective of an institutional investor, especially one that has hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars to allocate. They're going to choose a small portion, if any, and we're just trying to get them to a small portion of their entire fund of stocks, bonds, real estate, private equity, credit, all this stuff to allocate to digital assets. And if they've only got a few percent to allocate there and the top two are 80 to 90 percent of the entire market, they are not going to waste their time on these other things. And that's, you know, no offense to these other projects. They might be exciting, but they just don't warrant the, you know, that the juice isn't worth the squeeze for them, as they say. And so that's kind of just the reality that they're in. And I guess your question, could it open it up down the line? Yeah, if the whole market gets bigger, I think that's going to be the necessary key component. The whole market has to get bigger, or you have to have very specialized kind of hedge funds or people who are trying to drive alpha by choosing specific tokens or projects. Maybe one last question before we open up some of the details of this actual report. I think intuitively, it's no surprise that it was harder for Ether to join the ranks of Bitcoin just by the nature of the properties of the protocol. Bitcoin had its immaculate conception. It doesn't want to hard fork. It's not going to hard fork. It's going to be the same way that it is. There is no leadership. Ethereum is very different. There have been like five hard forks in the last three years. These are changing the foundations of what Ethereum is, and each one has to probably be vetted if we were going to offer this to institutional clients. There is a community of people that come together and agree on changes to the protocol. Proof of stake is new. EIP-1559 is new. These are all things that are probably relevant when it comes to risk management for offering this to your guys as clients. And yet, Ethereum has made it. Ethereum has made it into the ranks of Bitcoin as being offered by Fidelity. So maybe if I am a down stream, lower cap coin with aspirations of joining the ranks of Ether and Bitcoin, what are the properties that Ether got? Like, why is Ether joining the ranks? How did it earn its spot and how might others also follow in its footsteps? I think you've reached some level of critical mass in terms of network effects, where there's a differentiated use case. And if you looked at like the digital asset ecosystem from the time of Bitcoin's launch in January 3rd of 2009 through 2015 until you had the launch of Ethereum, like what was the crypto space? It was basically just Bitcoin and then some forks of Bitcoin with different parameters. But there was no differentiated use case. So why would you use something other than Bitcoin to accomplish the same goal of storing value in the asset or using it for a means of payment? Then in 2015, you have the smart contract on top of Ethereum added and this idea of creating composable applications. And it's a differentiated use case. Right. So it was like to some degree, there was a first mover advantage of what Bitcoin had created. And I think you could craft an argument. There was a first mover advantage of what Ethereum created outside of Bitcoin. And that comes with tradeoffs. They make different tradeoffs in terms of complexity and simplicity. You mentioned Ethereum has multiple hard forks over the past few years. And Bitcoin, I mean, it's had its Bitcoin cash hard fork, but technically has never had a hard fork throughout its existence. Right. And so like they are different networks. And I think we would argue that they're kind of doing different things and that might converge or it may not. But there's a differentiated use case and there's a network of users. And so I think outside of that, you know, there are alternative layer one protocols that make other tradeoffs right for more complexity and faster speeds that are competing with Ethereum. Right. And of course, Ethereum is trying to defend itself with layer twos. And, you know, we could get into all of that. But, you know, there's a difference in terms of what Ethereum is doing versus what Bitcoin is doing there. And that has garnered network effects such that it's the second largest crypto asset. And there's enough liquidity there and interest for a company like Fidelity to support it. All right, guys, let's get to the report, shall we? And what I love about this report is it feels like you guys are starting from base principles and from a foundation. I remember one of the first articles I wrote on the Bankless newsletter back in 2019 was Ethereum the network versus Ether the asset. And this is interesting because this is exactly where this report starts in describing the difference between Ethereum the network and Ether the asset. And Chris, as you already said, these are two different things. And so you've talked before in previous Fidelity reports, it sounds like about Ethereum the network and what you're talking about here is Ether the asset. Some people also call it Ethereum the asset. And I don't care anymore to correct anyone. And that's fine. We could call it Ether the asset or Ethereum the asset. I just think that point is important going into this report for all investors to understand, like these are two different things and there's a difference between value creation and value capture. Do you have anything to reflect on that statement, Chris? No, I think you nailed it exactly right. That's exactly what we tried to get across. So I'm glad it, it resonated with you as well, but we've been fighting this with Bitcoin for a long time, you know, clearing up the misconception of Bitcoin, big B the network versus Bitcoin, little B the asset or the token. Right. And so they're the same words, but we try to do capital and lowercase Ethereum. We at least have different words, but as you say, a lot of people just use Ethereum for both, so we'll continue to fight that as well, I guess, or at least just be consistent in saying Ether the asset or Ethereum the asset. So yeah, that's the main point here. People need to understand just like in traditional finance, a good company isn't necessarily a good stock or investment, right? You can have the greatest company in the world, but if the value isn't accruing to the stockholders or if the stock is already priced, like it's more than the greatest company in the world, it's not a good investment, right? And so you have some similar parallels with the traditional finance world where you can have a great ecosystem. You can have a great network like Ethereum. It can be doing what it set out to do. You can have more users, more applications built on it. But the question for investors, who is what we're writing to and who we serve is how does that translate to people who hold the token ether? Is there a link there and are they going to benefit from that increase use? So the very first thing Jack and Max do in the paper is break that down and talk about tokenomics, of course, which is a term you guys are obviously familiar with as well as your listeners, but people in the traditional financial world are not as familiar with this idea of tokenomics. How does the network incentives align with the token holder incentives and value accrual? Yeah, I think that's a great point and a much missed point, particularly for folks that are kind of looking at crypto and getting excited about the technology, the difference between value creation and value capture. Once again, it's just like number of Linux users. All of us use Linux on a day to day basis all the time. It's like underlying everything. And yet what is the value capture for Linux? Linux is not a company. It doesn't have a stock. It makes zero dollars. It's created all of this value for the world. But investors aren't able to capture that in value except through, you know, I guess if it's embedded in the Apple type system. Do you know what I mean? So there is a distinction there and that's important. Let's get to the two theses then for ether, the asset token economics. The first thesis is the money thesis for ether and the second is maybe a capital asset or productive asset thesis. So these are the two. But let's talk about the first. So thesis number one. And the question, I think, for investors, is ether a money? Can you guys describe that? You write about this quite a bit in your paper. So tell me about the puts and takes of this question. Is ether money? Yeah, I'll set it up and I'll let Jack answer the question. But the way we set up in the paper was similar to what we did with Bitcoin first, whereas there in that paper, we argue that Bitcoin is potentially emerging monetary good. We say from an economic perspective, first principles, like you said, what makes for good money, divisible, durable. You can transport it through space and time. You can easily verify it. All those things are characteristics of good money. And we said, well, Bitcoin fulfills them. So why can't it become this aspiring form of money? You get to ether the token and you go through the same characteristics. You say, well, they're quite similar, right? They're also on a blockchain. So they're divisible, verifiable. You can transport them through space and time. So the question then becomes, well, is ether money or is ether an aspiring form of money? And you know, this is pretty highly contentious topic in some areas. So we come down on a little bit of more of a nuanced answer, but I'll let you take what we went through when we thought about this. So I think there's different attributes that a money would have, right. Or a desirable form of money could have acting as a store of value is one acting as a medium of exchange and a unit of account, which those two things can kind of go hand in hand to some degree. You're more likely to use something as a medium of exchange if you're denominating things in it. Right. We do that with dollars. I think about how many dollars are in my bank account and then I go and spend dollars. If we look at it through those two lenses, I think there's a pretty clear argument, especially given like the changes to we just discussed tokenomics. The various upgrades from Ethereum have made the token or the asset more scarce. Right. At least the protocol changes thus far over time have reduced issuance. Have created a burning mechanism and that has driven this sort of store of value attribute as being potentially more attractive around Ethereum. And so that element, I think, is quite clearly there, an aspiring store of value asset in the way that Bitcoin is an aspiring store of value asset relative to traditional store of value assets. I think that with Bitcoin and the narrative of digital gold and the unchanging supply cap where its scarcity, you know, at least thus far, has been absolute of 21 million. And with Ethereum, it's more nuanced. There have been changes to its issuance schedule. But at the same time, we could say now it's been deflationary since the merge. Right. There's nuanced arguments in there. But I do think that there's a check in the box for a store of value as far as a means of payment or a medium of exchange within the Ethereum ecosystem. There's evidence that people that use ETH, the hardcore users, which we have to think about as a percentage of the global population, it is still very, very small. It's a niche community, but that niche community uses it as a money. And you also pay fees on the network in Ethereum. And so there's an element there of using it as a means of payment or as a unit of account inside of the Ethereum ecosystem. So to the degree that the Ethereum ecosystem continues to be successful and grow and its user set grows, then we think that as a medium of exchange, that element could grow in after some of the recent protocol changes to Ethereum. But as far as a money, we still think that Bitcoin looks primarily like it makes trade offs to try to be a money first and foremost, more than Ethereum tries to be like a technology platform, which is sort of the second thesis that I'm sure we'll get into in a few minutes. I was just going to say, I'll play devil's advocate a little bit to what Jack said there and what we talked about in the paper, which is you do have the supply side of this down with the burn, right? It's becoming net deflationary. So you think that would help with the store of value argument yet we haven't seen it in the price yet, right? We're down, you know, how many thousands of ether yet the price has not appreciated. So that part hasn't resulted in value accrual. And I think that one of the biggest reasons is besides some of the macro stuff and obviously the bear market. So I want to be fair because it's only been a year or so. The other thing that you need, though, is the demand side, right? And so this is where Bitcoin shines because it's got the demand and the network effect and that's a flywheel for Bitcoin. And because if Bitcoin's first, it's arguably going to attract that, right? It's also got the established narrative around that. And so while you have the components of store of value for ether in terms of it being scarce and deflationary at the moment, I think the two things fighting against it is it doesn't have the first mover advantage and the network effect of Bitcoin. And then as Jack mentioned as well, you also have maybe some people doubting whether or not that will continue in the future just because it has changed so many times in the past. Go for it, Jack. We use a lot of analogies when we're talking about these things with traditional investors, just because we find that that helps kind of make those links. And people will use the digital gold for Bitcoin. And I think we can think of from a precious metals perspective, if you think of gold, there is an industrial component to gold, but the vast majority of its value and the reason why people will buy it and hold it is because they view it as a store of value that has an element of scarcity that's widely recognized. With Bitcoin, I think that that is the case, right? It's the element of scarcity. It's the store of value property for why primarily people are buying and holding Bitcoin. And then there is a small like you can use it as a means of payment. There is a small subset of users that do that. Same thing with gold, right? With Ethereum, it's a lot more like silver, right? There's an element of scarcity and like it is still like a precious metal like gold is, but it's far more used as an industrial component for different things. And that's with Ethereum. Like it's more useful and it's more of the platform and the applications that could be built on top of it. And so I think from like translating it to traditional investors, that's kind of the framework we use. But there's evidence that there's a desire for Ethereum to compete on the monetary front clearly after the various protocol changes over the past few years. Yeah, we've definitely found that leaning into metaphors works quite better than just doing the trench warfare of technical unpacking. I want to actually zoom out and bring out the question of just like the money conversation at all. I remember giving a talk to a lot of my friend's parents in 2019 about crypto. Wait, David, you gave a talk to your friend's parents? Yeah. Like they all assembled around and they were like, we're listening to David talk about crypto? I had reserved a brewery. Shout out to MakerDAO who gave me the grant for reserving a brewery in Tyson with free beer. And then they came and listened to me give basically a lecture for almost an hour. But the first 85 percent of the lecture that I was giving was not about crypto. It was actually about the historical progression of money. And it was really meant to deconstruct preexisting notions about what money is. I want to put on the hat of a reader, you know, a TradFi institutional money manager who's reading this report and they are reading about a new form of money because that's a very new concept. And one of the biggest enticing things about the pull down the crypto rabbit hole is like the shattering of like the dollar isn't actually money. Money is a social construct. And so I want to ask about just simply the role of even broaching the subject of a new money and how it's read and how it's received by some of the traditional... Are they ready for that? Yeah, are they ready for that conversation? I'll give the classic story of the two fish swimming along. Another fish comes beside him and says, water is great, isn't it? And the other fish turns to them and says, what the heck is water? And the traditional finance world is awash in money. It's what it deals with every day. But I think very few have considered what exactly money is itself. Right. And I don't mean that disrespectfully. I mean, it is the world they live in. I'm not saying they should, or actually I do think they should. It's a good question to be considering, but I just saying, I understand where they're coming from. What is money? I mean, it's such a foundational question. It's such a nebulous thing. I mean, I went down the, what is money kind of rabbit hole for years and culminated with me saying, I have to take monetary history and theory classes at grad school because I think this is so fascinating. I mean, I'm a nerd in that way, but I think everyone needs to consider money in the terms of zoomed out grand historical proportions, not just their own personalized day-to-day having to pay their bills, you know, and I get why people get caught up in that. We all have stuff to do, but it's a big question that people need to consider. And especially on the institutional side, it's more important than ever, but also we found quite difficult and challenging for those reasons that you can imagine. Money is a tough word because like we discussed, like there are elements of money and there's money-ness to a lot of things. Like there are monetary premiums embedded in asset classes, like real estate, right? Where people are holding their wealth or storing their wealth in real estate that they otherwise maybe wouldn't if they knew they weren't going to get to based on their fiat currency or something like that, right? So there's an element of money to a lot of different things I think you could argue, but then specifically to say that this or that is money, you know, like everybody says that it's black or white, but in reality, there's like a lot of gray area, I would argue in terms of, can something have an element of money or attributes of money and be viewed as money? And there's some of that through Ethereum and it's grown over time. And I think you could craft an argument that it could continue to grow, but at the same time, people might view it as something different. Mantle, formerly known as BitDAO, is the first DAO-led Web3 ecosystem, all built on top of Mantle's first core product, the Mantle network, a brand new high-performance Ethereum layer 2 built using the OP stack, but uses Eigenlayers data availability solution instead of the expensive Ethereum layer 1. Not only does this reduce Mantle network's gas fees by 80%, but it also reduces gas fee volatility, providing a more stable foundation for Mantle's applications. The Mantle treasury is one of the biggest DAO-owned treasuries, which is seeding an ecosystem of projects from all around the Web3 space for Mantle. Mantle already has sub-communities from around Web3 onboarded, like Game7 for Web3 gaming and Bybit for TVL and liquidity and on-ramps. So if you want to build on the Mantle network, Mantle is offering a grants program that provides milestone-based funding to promising projects that help expand, secure, and decentralize Mantle. If you want to get started working with the first DAO-led layer 2 ecosystem, check out Mantle at mantle.xyz and follow them on Twitter at 0xmantle. You know Uniswap, it's the world's largest decentralized exchange with over $1.4 trillion in trading volume. You know this because we talk about it endlessly on bank lists. It's Uniswap, but Uniswap is becoming so much more. Uniswap Labs just released the Uniswap mobile wallet for iOS, the newest, easiest way to trade tokens on the go. With the Uniswap wallet, you can easily create or import a new wallet, buy crypto on any available exchange with your debit card with extremely low fiat on-ramp fees, and you can seamlessly swap on mainnet, polygon, arbitrum, and optimism. On the Uniswap mobile wallet, you can store and display your beautiful NFTs, and you can also explore Web3 with the in-app search features, market leaderboards, and price charts, or use Wallet Connect to connect to any Web3 application. So you can now go directly to DeFi with the Uniswap mobile wallet. Safe, simple custody from the most trusted team in DeFi. Download the Uniswap wallet today on iOS. There is a link in the show notes. Celo is the mobile-first, EVM-compatible, carbon-negative blockchain built for the real world, and now something big is happening. Introducing the Celo Layer 2. It's a game-changing proposal that's going to bring Celo's rapidly growing ecosystem home to Ethereum. Vitalik has shared his excitement for the Celo Layer 2 on the Celo Forum, so has Ben Jones from Optimism, but why? The Celo Layer 2 will bring huge advantages like a decentralized sequencer, off-chain data availability, and one-block finality. What does all that mean? Rock-solid security, a trustless bridge to Ethereum, and more real-world use cases for Ethereum without compromise. And real-world adoption is happening. Active addresses on Celo have grown over 500% in the last six months. With the Celo Layer 2, gas fees will stay low, and you can even pay for gas using ERC20 tokens. But Celo is a community-governed protocol. This means that Celo needs you to weigh in and make your voice heard. Join the conversation in the Celo Forum. Follow at cello.org on Twitter and visit cello.org to shape the future of Ethereum.
"fidelity" Discussed on Bankless
"Are the institutions serious about Ether the asset? That is the question today. So Fidelity, the multi-trillion dollar asset company just recently released an investment report. It was entitled Ethereum Investment Thesis. This is their case for why Ether the asset. The question on today's episode is, are the institutions really serious about Ether? Has Ether the asset passed through the institutional gauntlet the way Bitcoin has? This is the investment thesis from Fidelity. We bring on the researchers who wrote it and I gotta say, they pretty much get it right. We talk about value accrual for Ether the asset. We talk about whether Ether is money or whether it's a capital asset or maybe a bit of both. We talk about this concept of blue chip block space and maybe Ether block space is emerging as that. So stay tuned for this episode if you want to get more bullish on Ether with some conviction. David, before we get in, there's a message from our friends and sponsors over at Layer Zero. What do they want people to know? Yeah, Layer Zero is teaming up with Google Cloud. I did a panel at Permissionless with Raz from Layer Zero and Rich from Google Cloud talking about all about their partnership, their integration. Layer Zero of course is a messaging network. Layer Zero has smart contracts on 15 different chains across the crypto world and Google Cloud is the oracle that passes messages between these chains. It's the default oracle and so it's pretty cool that we're getting Google as a large player to come support this industry getting over some of our biggest hurdles, the hurdle of course of getting from chain to chain. But can you provide better infra than Google Cloud? Probably not. But if you can, you can run your own oracle too, weaving together 15 chains, hopefully more securely than the last bull market. So there's a link in the show notes, layerzero.network to find out more. All right, let me ask the question before we begin. Why was this episode significant? Why did we do it with Fidelity? Fidelity is a amplifier of some of the core analysis that has gone on in this industry to much more capital than that is currently in this industry. How many AUM does Fidelity have, Ryan? How much would you say? Something like four to five trillion. Four to five trillion? What is the market cap of our industry right now? One trillion? One trillion. Okay. So think about that leverage, right? Yes. They are putting in work to understand Ether. One of the lines that we've said frequently, and you'll hear it in this podcast, is the most bullish thing for Ether is to be understood. And there are some tailwinds behind this. Ether, unlike Bitcoin, has metrics. It has staking yields. It has burn rate. It has all of these different metrics that help kind of define the contours of what Ether is. And these are being put into an investment report by Fidelity. And so we go through the authors of this report and kind of unpack the investment thesis behind Ether. But also, I would say, it's also a framework for general crypto networks who are interested in following in Ether's footsteps. Do you want an investment report written by Fidelity to broadcast the merits of your network to the broader trad five, five trillion dollar asset under management Fidelity world? We talk about what it takes to join the ranks of Bitcoin, because now there are two. Two blue chips, Bitcoin and Ether. So we narrowly get to talk about Ether and its properties, but also kind of provide a framework for follow on crypto assets to join in the ranks, because, I mean, the bullish case for crypto is that we get more blue chips than just Bitcoin and Ether. And so that's why I would say this is significant and why it's worth listening to. Yeah. For me, it's not as much what they're saying, it's who's saying it. And that's what makes the impact and the difference. And this is a message that goes directly to institutions. So you'll get a flavor of how the institutions think about Ether, the asset in this episode, I think. Long time bankless listeners will probably, this is review content from them, but I mean, it's different when that content first came in the form of like medium articles and sub sec posts. Now it is in the form of professional PDFs from Fidelity. And so it's always nice to see the expansion of the narrative take on new forms. You got to check the footnotes in this white paper as well. They footnote ultrasound money, which is really cool. And guys, before we get into this episode, of course, first we disclose both David and I hold Ether. We are long term investors. We are not journalists. We don't do paid content. There's always a link to all bankless disclosures in the show notes. All right, let's get to our episode on the Ethereum investment thesis with Chris and Jack. But before we do, we want to thank the sponsors that made this possible, including our number one recommended crypto exchange, Kraken. Go check them out. Kraken Pro has easily become the best crypto trading platform in the industry. The place I use to check the charts and the crypto prices, even when I'm not looking to place a trade. On Kraken Pro, you'll have access to advanced charting tools, real time market data and outside their spiffy new modular interface. Kraken's new customizable modular layout lets you tailor your trading experience to suit your needs. Pick and choose your favorite modules and place them anywhere you want in your screen. With Kraken Pro, you have that power. Whether you are a seasoned pro or just starting out, join thousands of traders who trust Kraken Pro for their crypto trading needs. Visit pro.kraken.com to get started today. Metamask Portfolio is your one stop shop to manage your crypto assets and to tap into DeFi all in one place. And the most important part of that experience? Buying crypto, obviously. Metamask Portfolio's buy feature enables you to purchase crypto easily without going through centralized exchanges. Designed with you in mind, you can fund your wallet directly in just a few clicks with convenience and simplicity. What happens when you press the buy button? Rather than being limited to a single payment provider, Metamask brings together a bunch of vetted trustworthy providers to present you with customized quotes for your crypto purchase. Once you've funded your wallet, you'll be able to plug into DeFi with all the money and verbs like swapping, bridging and staking. But first things first, you need skin in the game. Head over to metamask.io slash portfolio to buy crypto the easy way.
"fidelity" Discussed on Crypto News Alerts | Daily Bitcoin (BTC) & Cryptocurrency News
"I guess charges being pressed against him by that man, Carlos Diaz. Now, September 26, Diaz posted a confirmation that Armstrong had turned up at his house and blockchain sleuth, Zach XBT said, who is not a fan, will always celebrate one of the most notorious bad actors in crypto. Finally, getting karma. And in late August, the hit network, which controls the BitBoy crypto brand, cut ties with its public face. Ben Armstrong citing issues surrounding substance abuse and financial damage to employees. And since then, a couple of lawsuits have been filed and retracted by various parties involved as the online saga continues. Armstrong even appealed for donations September 20th to cover his legal battles, which riled the crypto community. Now, Max Keiser's response to all of this and God bless Max, shitcoiners like drug addicts and alcoholics always end up in prison, the hospital or the morgue. You don't have to ishcoin today. Move to El Salvador and live the Bitcoin maximalist life of God's only money. Perfect money. Bitcoin, where you can get three papusas for a dollar. Preach. Now, what are your thoughts on this ongoing saga of BitBoy? I knew he was going to end up in jail. Max has been calling it for quite some time. I think it's pathetic more so than anything. Him asking for donations when he has a four hundred thousand dollar Lamborghini in which he claims he has. He's still rocking a Rolex. He's still living in a very upscale property. So why are you people donating money to this man so he can launch infinite amounts of lawsuits? He claimed he was going to be sending 25 lawsuits to every member of the hit network. Anyone saying anything bad against him. So he's on a tirade right now. Obviously, maybe a little crazy. He claims it's his P.S.T.D. But let me know your honest thoughts, fam. And I'm going to be reading all these comments out loud. Again, this is the most entertaining event that I have ever seen transpire minus maybe SPF in that saga. But BitBoy was also involved in that drama. Go figure. Interesting, right? Anyways, fam, now for our main feature story of the day, and that's Fidelity making a very bold prediction that the Bitcoin price will hit one billion dollars per coin by the year 2038. In fact, the head of their macro, Julian Timmer, made this prediction. So let's break this down and then we'll dive into our live Q &A. So here we go. Check it out. Bitcoin, as we know, the world's largest crypto asset has witnessed impeccable growth in terms of both adoption and price. Facts. Despite 2022 slump, the community seems optimistic about the asset hitting greater heights. Back in 2021, during the peak of Bitcoin, prominent asset manager Fidelity, who is currently the second largest asset manager in the world with four and a half trillion in assets under management, made a highly bullish prediction about the king crypto. However, the current scenario raises the question of whether the forecast remains valid and applicable. So let's break down this prediction and how they derive this insane number of a billion dollars per Bitcoin. Julian Timmer, the director of global macro at Fidelity, put forth the notion that Bitcoin has the potential to reach a valuation of one billion dollars per coin in roughly two decades by 2038, to be exact, specifically around the year 2038. To support his forecast, Timmer employed a combination of models and charts with a particular focus on the stock, the flow model and his own demand model. These analytical tools form the foundation of its primary prediction. And you can see those here, the Bitcoin supply and demand models as outlined here on your screen. The above demand model employs Metcalfe's law. I'm sure you've heard of it before. According to this, the number of its users grow linearly. A network's value grows geometrically. This means that the utility and adoption of Bitcoin are expected to grow more rapidly compared to its network of users, exchanges, ATMs and participating retailers. Therefore, this model predicted the Bitcoin will reach one million dollars by 2030. Let me know if you agree or disagree thus far. Now, in contrast, Timmer's own stock, the flow supply model noted the event of significant price surges during each halving event. Consequently, when considering this model in conjunction with the two other factors, it foresees a Bitcoin price range of a million dollars to 10 million dollars per coin by the year 2030. Let me know if you're still with me. We also got to point out we have ARK investors Cathie Wood along the lines of the same prediction, predicting one million dollar Bitcoin price as high as one and a half million by the year 2030. For her bullish case, we also have the stock, the flow and Plan B, creator of the Bitcoin stock, the flow model now projecting between one hundred thousand and a million dollar Bitcoin price by the year 2030, or I should say even more accurately post 2020 for halving. So it can come a lot before that next decade. Anyways, fam, let's get back to this story, shall we? Timmer's demand model is more inclined towards reflecting the bottom of the Bitcoin price. But on the other hand, the stock, the flow model seems to provide a better approximation for the peak of the king coin. However, it is worth noting that the disparity between these two models widening significantly beyond the year 2030. The reason behind this gap is expected to be the changing value of the dollar. So that's the kicker. What happens with hyperinflation? What's going to happen to the dollar value of Bitcoin? So let's break this down. How changes in the dollar value could influence the Bitcoin price action. Timmer proposes that the value of the dollar undergoes fluctuations over time when compared to other assets. For instance, if a dollar was invested in stocks during the 18th century, its present day value would be four billion dollars. Similarly, Timmer replied that if one million dollars is invested today, it can grow to one billion dollars in a span of 20 years. This further revealed that the purchasing power of the dollar has significantly reduced due to factors like inflation and depreciation. Thus, Timmer's statement implied that keeping a fixed amount of dollars for many years may lead to a reduced purchasing power due to the assets changing value. And over the last few years, an increasing number of companies are taken over the one trillion market cap. And as a result, it is foreseeable that in the next two decades, the concept of a trillion dollar valuation will become more common so much that individuals themselves could be worth a trillion dollars or more. The scale of numbers may even reach the quadrillion range. And let's stop right there. Currently on paper, the two richest men in the world are like Elon Musk, as well as Jeff Bezos, the founder of Amazon. Do you think they're likely to become trillionaires? Or do you think someone in the crypto sphere such as the CZ, who is notoriously known as the richest in crypto, will surpass their wealth and become the first trillionaire? Do you think it could be Michael Saylor, considering MicroStrategy now holds like 158,000 BTC on their balance sheet? Could it be Barry Silbert of GBTC, who currently control over 600,000 BTC? What's your thoughts, fam? Let me know in the comments right down below. So is this milestone still achievable for Bitcoin? Isn't that the million dollar question? Let's discuss it. Despite Bitcoin's historical growth, it had recently faced a significant setback. Bitcoin's network activity had diminished and fallen behind the comparison to Cardano network. For example, the number of active addresses in the Bitcoin market has experienced a notable decline when compared to the level seen in 2021. But personally, I think that is explainable. We had a bull run in 2021. Everyone and their mother was following Bitcoin and getting involved, especially around the time we hit those all-time highs. Now, higher network activity like increased transaction volume or active addresses is viewed as a positive indicator for the growing adoption of BTC. This can create a sense of confidence amongst the investors, potentially leading to rise in demand and a positive effect on the Bitcoin price. Now, although Timmer's prediction may be considered far-fetched and lacks empirical evidence, it doesn't completely dismiss the possibility that Bitcoin reaches such levels. The concept of de-dollarization has gained status, as we know with BRICS, shifting global attention towards alternative currencies. This shift in focus is expected to drive the demand for assets like gold and crypto to Bitcoin. And with BRICS pushing for the fall of the dollar, the BRICS currency and Bitcoin are expected to garner momentum. Facts, fam. We know it's a given that the dollar is going to continue to be printed until the wheels fall off. And as a result, the purchasing power of the dollar is mathematically guaranteed to go down, while the purchasing power of Bitcoin is mathematically guaranteed to go up. So what are your thoughts on Julian Timmer and Fidelity's $1 billion price prediction recap? They're claiming between $1 million and $10 million by the top of the decade by 2030. And then due to hyperinflation, like we're witnessing in other countries around the world, like in Argentina right now, that the U.S. dollar is going to become virtually worthless. Hence why we're going to see the Bitcoin price, if it's still even comparable to dollars by that time, $1 billion per coin. What's your thoughts, fam? Let me know in the comments right down below. And don't forget to check out CryptoNewsAlerts.net for the full premium experience with video and to participate in the live Q &A. And I look forward to seeing you on tomorrow's episode.
"fidelity" Discussed on Crypto News Alerts | Daily Bitcoin (BTC) & Cryptocurrency News
"Now, Chase Bank originally announced its policy change around crypto and an email to customers September 26th. Today, we have made the decision because fraudsters are increasingly using crypto assets to steal large amounts of money from people, the bank said. Now, some Chase users subsequently reported receiving the email about the policy changes. Many expressed outrage, saying it decides to leave the bank. Exactly. Quitting him here, we're banning computers because fraudsters use them. That's ultimately the same logic for why they're claiming to be, you know, not allowing transactions in crypto through Chase Bank. Now, they're a retail focused bank offering fee free banking via its mobile app operating in more than 4600 branches around the world. Chase reportedly amassed more than 50 million active users. Good frickin Lord. The latest restrictions will only impact around two percent of its total users worldwide, with its UK user base reaching one million in September of 2022. And quoting Altcoin Daily, today, JP Morgan, Chase banned Bitcoin and crypto transactions for all the UK clients, possibly more banks to follow. I hope this doesn't follow over in the United States. That's why we need to make a big uproar about it now, in my humble opinion. Anyways, but remember, Jamie Dimon, a.k.a. Jamie the Tapeworm, as Max said, Jamie Dimon is most likely buying and Chase is probably buying to remember what happened back in 2017. And he makes a great point. Don't listen to what these criminals say, but watch what they do because actions don't lie. And with that being shared, fam, now let's break down our next story of the day and let me know if you're going to be supporting JP Morgan Chase. If you're currently banking with him again, I'd highly recommend going to a local credit union or someone not involved in racketeering and criminal, you know what I mean? Organization involved in Rico, just saying, because they have been caught red handed how many times over the years? They more recently, over the past couple of years, had to pay a $900 million plus fine for spoofing the precious metals market. We're talking about JP Morgan Chase, their criminals and their criminal CEO, Jamie the Tapeworm Diamond. So I'm sick of seeing this man's face. I'm sick of the flood and I'm sick of their BS at the end of the day. If you can relate, holla at your boy. Now let's break down the latest with Gemini, one of the major crypto exchanges in the United States expanding over in India, which we know is one of the largest populations in the world, probably next to China, I would say. So let's break this baby down. And how many of you have used the Gemini exchange over the years? Let me know. And did you know, FYI, they were the first ones of the Winklevoss twins to submit an application for a spot Bitcoin ETF in the United States over a decade ago to the SEC, and they have been denying applications ever since. Now, according to the September 26th announcement, the funds will be used to grow Gemini's Development Center and Gurgon, the exchange said, our teams based in Gurgon will also be responsible for the core platform fundamentals in the areas of compliance, data pipelines and warehousing, security and payments, complementing our 500 plus strong global workforce. Since its initial launch in May, the Gemini Gurgon Development Center expanded over 70 staff with active hiring for software engineers, technical product managers, talent acquisition, finance, support and compliance. And in supporting the expansion, Gemini cited the Indian government's robust support framework that allows startups to thrive. Maybe take a lesson out of that, SEC and US regulators, you blind mofos. Anyways, the site also acts as a developer for the exchanges new features and NFTs as well as the asset marketplace. Now, back in April, Gemini disclosed big plans for international growth this year in APOC, referring to the Asia Pacific region. It's India's operations, which are expected to be the second largest behind only Gemini's United States headquarters. Now, the firm's CEO for APOC region called India a global hub for entrepreneurship and technical development. India has been actively adopting blockchain tech with around 50 percent of their local and state level governments incorporating it into their data management systems and verifiable certificate issuances. In a recent survey, over 56 percent of Indian firms expressed interest in enterprise blockchain in a country with an estimated Web3 developer base of 10 million individuals. So between 2021 and 2022, 450 Web3 startups in India received one and a half billion dollars. So there you have it. I am curious how many of you have ever been to India before. How many of you are tuned in live right now from India and what's the state of the current crypto environment in India? If you can share any insights, I greatly appreciate that. And I'll read all that out loud here towards the end of the show. And with that being shared, fam, now let's discuss Bitcoin in China. At one point, Bitcoin was totally banned. Bitcoin mining was banned. Right. And then Hong Kong, which is not a part of the mainland, they started talking about this innovation, making it virtually a crypto hub for that region. And now China has come out saying, yo, we recognize Bitcoin. It's no longer banned. And Shanghai being one of the major places over there. So let's break this baby down. I've actually lived 13 months in China, so I have a little experience out there. Anyways, the Shanghai number two intermediate people's court in China reportedly recognized Bitcoin as a unique and non-replicable digital asset while acknowledging its scarcity and inherent value. Preach! The Chinese court released a report yesterday, September 25th, discussing the development of Internet tech. The report stated that with the development of Internet tech, digital currencies such as Bitcoin stand out as unique and non-replicable. Preach! The report states that among the sea of digital currencies, Bitcoin is different and unique from other digital assets. 100 percent. The report also shed light on some of the unique properties of Bitcoin, including its scarcity and property attributes. The report states that Bitcoin has key currency features such as scalability, ease of circulation, storage and payment. Bitcoin continues to see global usage despite its decentralized nature and lack of central authority administration. The latest judicial report acknowledging Bitcoin and its attributes as an asset class gives Bitcoin and other digital currencies in China more legitimacy. Despite a blanket ban on cryptos in China, legal arguments for defining Bitcoin as personal property have gained a lot of traction from the local Chinese courts. The latest recognition from one of the key courts in Shanghai comes despite the hostile attitude of the Chinese government towards Bitcoin. China imposed a blanket ban on all forms of crypto activities, including Bitcoin mining back in 2021. However, several courts in China have recognized Bitcoin and other digital assets as legal properties, which is protected by the law. And as reported September 1st, a People's Court in China released a report assessing the legality of virtual assets and analyzing the criminal law attributes of these assets. The report observed that digital assets qualify as legal property and thus are protected by the law. That's right, as Michael Saylor calls it, it's digital real estate. It's more scarce than real real estate because there's only 21 million coins. It's the first money in existence to have a finite limited supply. And of course, governments around the world are going to have to recognize it regardless of what they have done in the past. And this is a sign of the times, even China recognizing it as legal property, which therefore needs to be protected. So there we have it. No one can stop Bitcoin. No one can ban it. You can try it. It's only going to make it that much more popular at the end of the day, which we have witnessed time and time again. Now for the story that is on everyone's mind, the story that had me up till 1 a.m. watching the drama go down in real time as BitBoy, Ben Armstrong, got arrested in real time during his own livestream. You can't make this up. Then this morning I watched his latest update to see what happened. He said he caught two charges, one for loitering, being somewhere he doesn't belong. He showed up at this guy Carlos's house allegedly to get his Lamborghini back, which was allegedly stolen from him. He claimed to have a gun in the vehicle. The police asked him, do you have any weapons on you? He's like, no, nothing is on me, but there's a gun in my car. And then they kept asking, who is in your car? They can see someone in the car. And he failed to answer that to the police until about the fifth request. The police yelled, who is in the car? And then he's like, I think Cassie or whoever his mistress is that he's been cheating on his wife with. So he revealed this in the livestream. It was the most chaotic. I am telling you, I would have never imagined this happening and live. The most entertaining story probably of all time. I cannot wait for the movie of BitBoy. But anyways, if you missed it, here's what you missed out on. And let me know your thoughts, fam. This is very interesting, entertaining and sad all at the same time. Crypto influencer Ben Armstrong, previously known as BitBoy, who was once the largest crypto YouTuber in the world, had reportedly been arrested while live streaming outside of his house. That's a fact. We witnessed it live on stream. And he claims that this former business associate, Carlos, basically stole his Lamborghini through coercion and threats. Now, before the Ustream, he posted he was going live soon in a very special location. He announced that here in his ex-account 719 p.m. last night. I'll be going live soon from a very special location on YouTube. So get ready. This is going to be good. I'd say it wasn't a good look at all, Ben. You ended up in jail. What an embarrassment. Less than an hour later, Armstrong was live streaming himself at the residence of consultant and NFT investor Carlos Diaz, who is understood to have links with the hit network. And he claims he is a gangster. And it's ironic that their company is called the hit network because what do gangsters do? They make hits. And we ain't talking about music, fam. Anyways, Armstrong went on the tirade claiming Diaz wanted to kill him and alleging he has links to the Houston mafia. I am not scared of you, Carlos. He was yelling. He also played ding dong ditch, ringing his doorbell, then running to the streets. Again, there's a grown man. So you can't make this stuff up. So someone shared on X the entire insane 37 minute bit boy stream started from Carlos's driveway, him on his property to him ending the stream. Again, I watched this very late last night. I encourage you to watch it if you find that entertaining. But anyways, here's for some of the highlights. At almost 19 minutes into the stream, Armstrong was met with local police who were called and turned up and asked if Armstrong had a weapon on him in which he denied. He was then ordered to put down the phone and the stream goes blank for the remaining 17 minutes. But you can still hear the audio, just FYI. And according to a listening on Gwinnett County, Georgia Sheriff's Office, Benjamin Charles Armstrong was booked on September 25th at 9 11 p.m. local time and remains incarcerated. But he is out. He claimed in the update this morning he only served eight hours in jail. So just FYI, he is currently out. But he said he does have two charges, again, one for loitering and one for assault.
"fidelity" Discussed on Crypto News Alerts | Daily Bitcoin (BTC) & Cryptocurrency News
"Yo, what's good, crypto fam? This is first and foremost, a video show. So if you want the full premium experience with video, visit my YouTube channel at CryptoNewsAlerts.net. Again, that's Crypto News Alerts dot net. Welcome, everyone. Just joining us again. This is Pod number fourteen hundred and thirteen. I am your host, JV. And today is September twenty six. Twenty twenty three. Let's kick it off. Kick it off with our market watch as we do each and every day. Massive shout out to everyone today in the live chat. I appreciate all the interaction. This chat is literally lit and we're going to have a fantastic live Q &A session towards the end of the show. So here we go. Let's check out coin 360. We can see the majority of the alt coins currently correcting along with the king down a quarter of a percent for the day trading just above twenty six thousand two hundred. But a good sign that we're holding on to that twenty six thousand dollars of support and checking out coin market cap dot com. We're currently sitting just above a trillion. We have been stuck here for the bulk of this year. Just FYI, there's roughly twenty two billion in volume in the past twenty four hours. But the Bitcoin dominance slightly on the rise at forty eight point nine percent with the either dominance at eighteen point three percent and checking out the top one hundred crypto gainers of the past twenty four hours. We have maker up nine percent trading at fourteen hundred and twenty three dollars, followed by Frank's share or frack share affects us up five percent trading just under six bucks, followed by optimism up two percent trading at a dollar twenty seven and checking out the top one hundred crypto gainers of the past week. A massive sea of red with only a handful in the green with maker lead in this pack up eight point eight percent, with the biggest losers being R.L.B. and APT down roughly four and a half percent and checking out the crypto greed in fear index. We're currently rated all forty six in fear. Yesterday was a forty seven, which is neutral. Last week, a forty six and last month, a thirty eight in fear. So there you have it. Fam, shout out to everyone in that live chat. OG back road crypto bootleg Bitcoin Maximus digital dankness. We got Renee Knox Bill, the entire fam in the building, which I love and love to see. And with that being shared, fam, now let's break down today's Bitcoin technical analysis. Check out some of the charts and where the Bitcoin price action is likely to go next. Let's go. Don't forget to smash that like Bitcoin hit intraday lows after the September 26th Wall Street open as the price behavior shunned major volatility, as you can clearly see here and the Bitcoin one hour candle chart data from Cointelegraph and trading views showed Bitcoin acting in a tight range while keeping twenty six thousand a support, which is the current line in the sand. The Bitcoin bull saw several recess to the twenty six level as the week got underway, though it is still holding at this time analyzing the composition on the largest global exchange finance. We have material indicators eyeing a potential scenario yet to come with fifty million dollars in bid liquidity between twenty five thousand and the current spot price versus just six million in overhead resistance watching to see if it replenishes, says the analyst. And here's your prescription. I know just the pharmacy to get this filled. Who are you? A pharmacy benefit manager, a middleman your insurer uses to decide which medicines you can get, what you pay and sometimes even which pharmacy you should go to. Why can't I go to a pharmacy in my neighborhood? Because I make more money when you go to a pharmacy I own. No one should stand between you and your medicine. Visit PHRMA dot org slash middleman to learn more paid for by pharma. Now, material indicators reiterated that twenty four thousand seven fifty, the site of the Bitcoin mid-June low remained the line in the sand for the bulls for the previous weeks. Now, he also described the current status quo that is not that bad and also added what Dan Crypto trades highlighted the two key levels that could determine the new Bitcoin price trend. These came in in the form of the 200 week moving average at twenty eight thousand as well as the horizontal support zone at twenty five G's, quoting him here. Until then, we'd likely be seeing low time frame, choppy price action. And he also points out here, Bitcoin zooming out is not all that bad, but I doubt we'll see any meaningful trend form until either. Number one, the weekly 200 week moving average was sitting at twenty eight thousand is broken or until the horizontal support sitting at twenty five thousand is broken. Which target do you feel is most likely to occur for the King Crypto? Let me know in the comments right down below. And zooming out, it was financial commentator Ted's talk, Crypto turning the eye to the rest of twenty twenty three with optimism when it came to BTC. Quitting the analysts here, Bitcoin is entering a period of positive seasonality, noting that October is traditionally a lucrative month, hence why we call it October for Bitcoin hodlers. Ted Talks macro said that twenty twenty two marked an exception thanks to the United States benchmark interest rates, quoting him again. However, for Bitcoin, this is an unprecedented environment. Prior to twenty twenty two, Bitcoin had never existed in a world that rates much higher than two percent, whereas now in late twenty twenty three, the federal funds rate is above five percent and will likely remain there for much longer. While the central banks of the world try to keep the lid on inflation. Good luck there. We know that the genie is out of the bottle. So good luck trying to get that tamed back in right now. This chart shows October as being on average Bitcoin's most successful month over the past three years with data from monitoring resource Coin Glass showing likewise. So do you feel that this up and coming month, which is only a few days out, October, a.k.a. October, will be another bullish catalyst for the king crypto and the entire crypto market? Let me know your honest thoughts, fam, in the comments below. And this breaking news just came in before I went live. One and a half trillion dollar asset manager Franklin Templeton files a 19 B four for the spot Bitcoin ETF officially starting the clock with the SEC. Another one, fam. I should be quoting or, you know, hitting the soundboard here for D.J. Cali, another one, because it's like a domino effect. I cannot wait. Twenty twenty four is going to be such a bullish year, fam. You have no idea. Anyways, now let's break down breaking news coming from JP Morgan Chase and their CEO Jamie Dimon, better known as Jamie the tapeworm here in the crypto sphere. Shout out to Max Geiser, by the way. But yeah, they're banning crypto transactions from your bank. And we know in the United States, at least, JP Morgan Chase is the largest bank in the United States. So them putting a ban on crypto in the UK is a clear sign that they don't want investors investing into crypto. So what do they know that we don't? Well, let's break this down and why this may be. And if you're currently banking with JP Morgan Chase, I'd highly consider thinking about starting another bank account, maybe with a local credit union or something like that. Why support these criminals? You know what I mean? So here we go. Chase Bank, a subsidiary, a financial services company, JP Morgan Chase will restrict all crypto related transactions for its customers in the UK. Now, if you live in the UK, I'd be making an uproar about this because it's total BS. And again, I would not be supporting your oppressors, fam. Starting October 16th, which is like two weeks out, customers of Chase Bank in the UK will no longer be able to make crypto transactions using their debit cards or through outgoing bank transfers. You're going to try to make it impossible for you. Customers will receive a decline transaction notification if they attempt to make a crypto related transaction. So the million dollar question becomes, why do you feel they're banning all crypto transactions? Are they doing to look out for your best interests or are they trying to protect their own? You know what I mean? Special interests. Let me know, fam, because I think the answer couldn't be any more clear. So check it out. According to the bank's representative, Chase decided to enforce the new restrictions due to an increase in fraud and scams related to crypto assets. The spokesperson referred to data from Britain's fraud reporting agency Action Fraud, indicating that the UK consumer losses to crypto fraud surged more than 40 percent year over year as of May 2023. And according to the agency, the losses in the UK surpassed 300 million British pounds, which is roughly 365 million dollars. What is that, a million per day in USD? This has been done to protect our customers and keep their money safe. Sure, if you believe them, we are committed to helping keep our customers money safe and secure. We have seen an increase in a number of crypto scams targeting UK consumers. So we have taken the decision to prevent the purchase of crypto assets on the Chase debit card or by transferring money to a crypto site from a Chase account.
"fidelity" Discussed on Crypto News Alerts | Daily Bitcoin (BTC) & Cryptocurrency News
"In today's show, Bitcoin analysts flag key Bitcoin price points as the bulls cling to $26,000. And breaking news just in, Franklin Templeton, a 1.5 trillion asset manager, filed a 19-B-4 for a Spot Bitcoin ETF app, officially starting the clock with the SEC. Let's go. We'll also be discussing breaking news. JP Morgan subsidiary Chase UK to restrict crypto transactions. That's right. Chase Bank customers in the UK will no longer be able to make crypto transactions starting October 16th. Now remember, Jamie Dimon, who is the CEO of Chase, isn't selling. Jamie Dimon is most likely buying and Chase is probably doing the same. So let's not forget the past. We'll also be discussing Gemini investing $24 million for the expansion. In India, in fact, they have added 70 new members to their staff. We'll also be discussing Bitcoin gains legal recognition as a digital currency in Shanghai, China. That's right. A similar report from another Chinese court in September recognized cryptos as virtual properties protected by the law. We'll also be discussing breaking news. Ben BitBoy Armstrong arrested on his livestream over a Lambo dispute. And in fact, in his own testimony in today's video, he shared he caught two charges, one for loitering and another for ultimately harassment, which is assault. And Max Keiser responded to this. Ish coiners like drug addicts and alcoholics always end up in prison, the hospital or the morgue. You don't have to ishcoin today. Move to El Salvador and live the Bitcoin maximalist life of God's only money, perfect money. Bitcoin were three papusas for only a dollar. We're also going to be discussing can the Bitcoin price realistically achieve Fidelity's one billion dollar price target by twenty thirty eight. I'll be breaking this down for you. We'll also be taking a look at the overall crypto market. All this plus so much more in today's show.