24 Burst results for "Fargo Investment Institute"
"fargo investment institute" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Story So he had that offer by Mitch McConnell and still being worked out but it looks like the Democrats are moving forward to accept it And so the market did react in a big way and it seems to be spreading here to the Asia Pacific We had a few other positives Vladimir Putin said his country was willing to help on energy prices European equities cut their losses in half at that point And also we had another positive that President Biden and president Xi Jinping have agreed to meet virtually before the end of the year And the data supported ADP employment data beating analyst expectations comes ahead of the keen on farm payrolls on Friday businesses creating some 568,000 net new jobs Dollar was stronger though and right now we've got dollar yen one 1143 The Aussie at 72.76 U.S. cents and the yield on the ten year treasury didn't really do too much Now at 1.52% Paul to you As you mentioned Brian a Democrat signaling But I got to take up GOP leader Mitch McConnell's offer to raise the U.S. debt ceiling into December and this would reduce the immediate risk of a default Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer didn't respond publicly The Democrats who had a meeting with him said they're ready to push through a short term increase in the dead limit Still the rejecting reconciliation process to pass a long-term increase in the limit with only democratic votes earlier President Biden hosted financial in corporate leaders to help him pressure Republicans on the issue and among the attendees was that JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon He warned how potential defaults could impact businesses brine We should never even get this closed There are huge economic costs already being borne by companies and lawyers trying to figure out what this means if something like this ever happens It's already affecting the stock market et cetera have you heard from some of the folks here We should get rid of the debt ceiling We don't need to have this kind of break from a ship every couple years JPMorgan said we'll begin a review of all its contracts on Monday and this is part of the preparation for a potential default Democrats have said no decision has been made on what they will do when the debt ceiling issue comes to a head again December Well it's a big part of the story and coming up in a few moments we'll be chatting with Tracy mcmillion head of global asset allocation strategy at Wells Fargo investment institute getting her marked outlook another big part of this story has been the debt situation in China Now a longtime backer of China ever grand is planning to go private Bloomberg's David and glace has the story Chinese estate holdings has agreed to buy out minority shareholders for nearly $250 million for the 25% stake Now that's quoting to a filing with the Hong Kong stock exchange on Wednesday The offer came after the stock has plunged to an 18 year low Chinese estates is owned by the family of billionaire Joseph Lau who already controlled about 75% of the company Now the law family going private marks the biggest retreat by a longtime backer of evergreens so far and allow is part of this so called poker club of tycoons who have backed ever grand chairman hua Cayenne over the years In Hong Kong David inglis Bloomberg daybreak Asia Joe Biden and Xi Jinping plan on a virtual meeting.
"fargo investment institute" Discussed on Marketplace Morning Report with David Brancaccio
"Month to spend four trillion dollars to shore up infrastructure and other weaknesses in the us economy. I'm david brancaccio. The biden administration spent august focused on pulling the us military out of afghanistan and attempting to quell the delta variant. Now it's september. The white house is hoping to turn to its economic agenda marketplaces and dealers on the line with more of those priorities. That's right david. The white house is looking to pass more than four trillion dollars in domestic spending. Which includes that bipartisan infrastructure. Bill that biden is arguing is even more pressing after hurricane ida devastated the gulf coast and left some of the northeast flooded and he approved major disaster declarations up north. And he's also touring the damage in new york and new jersey today. And you know that he's going to be pushing that build back better agenda in the process and the bulk of the spending would come as a budget reconciliation package. It's called with the price tag of some three and a half trillion dollars with a t but sounds like summer worried about spending too much. Yeah that's exactly right. That's spending would effectively direct toward different social programs. Things like family services health. lots of environmental programs. Now senator joe manchin of west virginia. He's a pivotal democrat. Whose vote is key to getting anything through the senate. He's already said that. He's worried about the government racking up so much debt but the biden team is confident that he's going to be persuaded now. Biden's also continued to argue for a higher corporate tax rate to help pay for community. College paid family the expansion of child tax credit as well but in terms of capturing the spotlight afghanistan and pandemic. These are not going away. That's exactly right. They're not and it's really biden's hope that he can shift focus to his economic priorities but that could be easier said than done especially after two important pieces of the cove in nineteen relief. Package just ran out. The federal moratorium on evictions is over and just yesterday. Almost nine million people lost their unemployment benefits all right marketplaces and dealer thank you. The surprise remains but analysts have now had four days to digest the news from just before the weekend that just two hundred thirty five thousand. More people were hired on in august. That is a third of the hiring. The experts were expecting given some time for reflection. Let's consult paul. Christopher head of global market strategy for the wells fargo investment institute. Good morning to you. Good morning it. I'm still stuck on friday to be honest with you..
"fargo investment institute" Discussed on Marketplace Morning Report with David Brancaccio
"I'm david brancaccio. The biden administration spent august focused on pulling the us military out of afghanistan and attempting to quell the delta variant. Now it's september. The white house is hoping to turn to its economic agenda marketplaces and dealers on the line with more of those priorities. That's right david. The white house is looking to pass more than four trillion dollars in domestic spending. Which includes that bipartisan infrastructure. Bill that biden is arguing is even more pressing after hurricane ida devastated the gulf coast and left some of the northeast flooded and he approved major disaster declarations up north. And he's also touring the damage in new york and new jersey today. And you know that he's going to be pushing that build back better agenda in the process and the bulk of the spending would come as a budget reconciliation package. It's called with the price tag of some three and a half trillion dollars with a t but sounds like summer worried about spending too much. Yeah that's exactly right. That's spending would effectively direct toward different social programs. Things like family services health. lots of environmental programs. Now senator joe manchin of west virginia. He's a pivotal democrat. Whose vote is key to getting anything through the senate. He's already said that. He's worried about the government racking up so much debt but the biden team is confident that he's going to be persuaded now. Biden's also continued to argue for a higher corporate tax rate to help pay for community. College paid family the expansion of child tax credit as well but in terms of capturing the spotlight afghanistan and pandemic. These are not going away. That's exactly right. They're not and it's really biden's hope that he can shift focus to his economic priorities but that could be easier said than done especially after two important pieces of the cove in nineteen relief. Package just ran out. The federal moratorium on evictions is over and just yesterday. Almost nine million people lost their unemployment benefits
"fargo investment institute" Discussed on Marketplace Morning Report with David Brancaccio
"New hiring analysis if we want to see recovery ending. Unemployment insurance is not the silver bullet. It's not like states that ended those extra weekly benefits. Saw flood of returning workers. Hiring was about the same as in other states with ups telling us is that there are so many other things happening in the labor force that are keeping workers out things like lack of childcare or concerns about the delta variant karen. Striker is a co owner of cazenove. Pizzeria in boise idaho. She needs kitchen and front house staff. We get people applying or calling seeming to be interested but then many of them will not show up strikers. Not sure why. Idaho is one of the states that ended extra unemployment benefits but it also has low vaccination rates luke pardieu says. That's a factor. All of the increase in employment is driven by these states with higher vaccination rates so he says kovic safety seems to be a bigger incentive than the loss of three hundred bucks a week. I'm amanda pitcher for marketplace. In about four hours. We'll get a state of the art briefing from america's central banker on jobs and growth and prices paul christopher's head of global market strategy for the wells fargo investment institute although the fed has been largely discounted in terms of their view on inflation. They've stuck with this idea since the beginning of the year. That inflation is transitory. The market doubts that at this point a lot of consumers doubt that at this point so the fed has kind of painted themselves into a corner with inflation on the job market..
"fargo investment institute" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Seoul, opening at the top of the art. Futures here in Sydney, pointing higher to the tune of 1.2% Looks like we're going to recapture a lot of the selling that we saw on Monday. The Nikkei futures also hired by a little bit better than 2%. We saw a very good day for US equities if you long, of course, best day for the Dow since early March that tired by 1.76%. The S and P. Also up by better than 1%. The NASDAQ Up by about 8/10 of 1% 11 sectors in total were higher energy financials leading the way they're the markets seem to be coming to terms with gradual fed tightening. We'll be hearing more from Jay Powell in the next 24 hours or so he will be meeting President Biden and testifying to Congress on Tuesday. US time We had PPE numbers out of Korea a short time ago, 6.4% increase in the month of May. That was up from 5.6% that we saw in April. A lot of action going on in the bond market, though the yield on the 10 year 1 48 right now oil continuing to perform strongly, West Texas Up about 2.5% in the past 24 hours 73 44 right now, gold strengthening a little as well. 1785 announce Bitcoin continuing to suffer. 31,500 right now China now ordering Alipay and banks not to offer services linked to crypto trading. So Bitcoin then approaching what's known as a death cross. Little later on. We'll have the machine tool orders and department store sales out of Japan. But right now we're going to get a check of global news. Baxter's in the San Francisco newsroom Alright, could do that, Paul. Thank you. Hong Kong will officially shorten mandatory hotel quarantine to seven days for fully vaccinated people. From all but a short list of high risk places US has 150 Million Americans have been fully vaccinated more than 45%. It may not make it to the 70% target, though for July, 4th also reports from counties with high non vaccinated Rates that there's a surge of the Delta Varian risking higher mutation rates. We heard Liz Cor Cortez Bloomberg News, Um, saying that Children are being really affected by the Delta variant President Joe Biden says the administration is delaying target date for overseas shipments, saying AstraZeneca's still in safety review Its funds if its funds remain frozen. Hongkong's pro Democracy Apple Daily says it may have to suspend publishing and posting at midnight on Friday and Tokyo Olympics will limit the number of Spectators to 10,000 or 50%. Per venue in San Francisco. I'm at Baxter, This is Bloomberg. Right back at you, Paul. All right. Thanks very much. I guess for the half hour is Tracie McMillion. She's head of global asset allocation strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. And Tracy. There's ongoing debate about the future of inflation. I just wondered if you'd care to add your voice to that. Of course, we heard from John Williams as we've been discussing today, seeing inflation of pulling back to about 2% in 2022 23. Then we have the wrong lacks of Ray Dalio and Larry Summers saying Overheating. Where do you stand on this continuum? And And how do you position for that? I think we're somewhere in between the two of them. We do think that inflation is going to run hotter this year hotter than we've seen in in quite some time at about 3.8% and then our forecast for next year is also for elevated inflation at about 2.8% Looking out a little further. We do think that inflation will come back closer to the Fed's target level of about 2% in the longer term, but That's up from where we were at 1.74 over the last decade. Yeah. You wonder how much they're willing to tolerate. We had Christopher Condon on our reporter covers the fed and he said, Yeah, then be very happy to sustained 3%, but not 4%. And even the feds own PC prediction was up to 3.4%. So at what level do you think they start to get nervous? And then maybe that That sort of throws on the campfire, the this notion of of sustaining higher inflation for longer Sure, so it's probably more than matter of duration than any kind of acute magnitude so we might see it 4% 5% 6%. Or maybe even a little bit higher than that over the course of a short period of time, So we hope we see this for a few months and then it starts to level off or start. Paper somewhat then I think that the Fed can continue to be patient. But if we see this for quarters on and then obviously they're going to have to readjust their policy, you tell what is happening in the economy. Input prices, certainly surging. We've got the Bloomberg commodities and accept better than two thirds of 1% oil I mentioned before performing very strongly. So how do you position for this? You investing in energy stocks right now. We are. Well, we like I'm really all the cyclical stocks. You know, energy, certainly among them that industrial materials um financials also, and you know, we continue to light commodities as a complex. Certainly, oil prices are capturing headlines. But other commodities are also rising. Global demand been really strong for not only oil but often for agricultural In commodities and also industrial metal. How much do you see a lot of the demand of late. It's just restocking after just being you know, down to almost nothing last year. Sure a lot of it is that and a lot of, uh, you know, the, uh, price increases that we're seeing has, you know more to do with people wanting to buy more things than Than the economy can supply right now. So of course, manufacturers are restocking on basic materials. And they're also you know, um, continuing to be somewhat behind in filling their orders, so as long as we have that kind of environment We are going to see some pricing pressures. Tracy just quickly when you look at the future, what's the biggest risk you see on the horizon? Right now, The risks that we see are probably more in fixed incomes and in holding cash. So you know, with the U. S Treasury bond at 1.5%.
"fargo investment institute" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"News exactly right. It could happen by late week next Digital, an internal memo says. If it can't access its bank accounts this week, it will make a final decision on Friday. The flagship of media tycoon Jimmy Lai. Pro Democracy says that means the online news service would stop at 11 59 Friday. That's PM. The memo obtained by Bloomberg says it wishes it employees stay until the end, but It can understand everyone has to make his or her own decision. US. Says 150 Million Americans have been fully vaccinated more than 45% of the population, making it very uncertain if it can reach the Biden administration goal of 70% by the fourth of July, But White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki says well things she has to remain optimistic even if we do sail past the 70% goal. We're still going to be vaccinating people on July 5th on July 7th and July 10th that is still going to continue to be part of our objective. But some new numbers out today making the race on there are new surveys showing that The dangerous Delta, the India very and is spreading very quickly and pockets of the unvaccinated specifically in the south of the United States. The genomics firm Helix analyzed 20,000 samples in 700 County says If the trend continues, there will be more surges. No doubt about it. Dr. Carrie Althoff at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Medicine says the vaccine works and we know that after first dose the vaccines have about 33% effectiveness against covid illness, So you really need that second dose in order to help now, she says. After the second about 88% advocacy, Dr Al Hof says, where people are not being vaccinated, allows the virus to thrive and mutate. Which can be a problem for the population as a whole. And Bloomberg's Michelle Cortez is now saying there are more pronounced risk now for kids getting sick to those who are unvaccinated when we're looking at some parts of the country where we have significantly fewer than 50% of the adult fascinated and many Children haven't yet started in that process. We're seeing outbreak among kids who are showing up in emergency rooms already, quite said. Michelle says vaccines at this point are effective Tokyo Olympics will limit the number of Spectators to 10,000 prevent you to reduce the chance of it becoming a super spreader event. Actually, 10,000 and 50% capacity W. H O emergency, a city's director, Dr Michael Ryan, Says some of the numbers need perspective. The rate of disease in the last week in Japan has been 80 per million residents in the same week. That's the rates in the USA have been three times higher in Brazil. 30 times higher than the UK 11 times higher in Russia nine times higher We should all do the math. I guess, Ryan says Japan is relatively low, actually. Hong Kong will officially shortened mandatory hotel quarantine to seven days for fully vaccinated people from all but a short list of high risk places. Chief Executive Carrie Lam marking the occasion, saying two weeks and no new infections in San Francisco, I'm Ed Baxter. This is Bloomberg are Brian. All right. Thanks very much. Let's get to Tracy McMillian, head of global Asset allocation strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. So we're getting a lot of views about inflation and the Fed meeting and exactly What they are trying to do. I suppose one is really not all that much has changed. One view. Another view is well, This is the Fed. They're starting to take away the punch bowl. Tracy. How do you see things in terms of deploying new money at the moment? Sure so. So we can see that, uh, the action by the Fed last week as a fed pivot. Um, but we also see it as the Fed almost marking to market they were acknowledging that inflation is rising. They were acknowledging that growth is going to be higher than their original forecast. So we continue to favor equities over fixed income and this environment we like domestic U. S stocks over developed markets stocks and we also like emerging markets, some commodities as well. Are there any parts of the market that are looking a bit overvalued to may be at risk of correction here? Sure. So whenever you have this tape, both easy money you brought on by monetary fiscal policy. Is there going to be dislocations in the market? So we do think there is some peripheral segments of the equity market, some that are probably experiencing some unsustainable evaluation. So you think things like the means. Mm stocks, maybe with certain means stuff with unsupported valuations. As rates rise, money becomes a little more expensive, and you know, investors are going to be looking for earnings. We think to drive future returns. If there is a big selloff in in the meme stocks or further selloff in crypto currencies does that bleed through to really take down the broader equity market? We don't think so. We think that investors are still going to be looking at the underlying fundamentals, the underlying trends that are going to drive earnings higher this year and next year for the major indices. So you know our our message to investors has been to continue to be diversified. We we like Cyclicals. We We, like, you know names that are going to benefit from continued growth but remain diversified. Just sticking with the thing that Brian mentioned they I mean, I know you say the crypto assets becoming viable to consider. Are you not concerned about the crackdown that's going on in China right now. It's so we We are concerned about a multitude of bread that encrypted currencies will face some and state and we do know that this is a relatively new assets for investors to consider from adding to their portfolios. But.
"fargo investment institute" Discussed on Mornings With Gail - 1310 KFKA
"Twelve cents a barrel and bitcoin at thirty nine thousand three hundred the wells fargo investment institute out with their mid-year outlook. It was just released yesterday afternoon. It predicts and intensified economic recovery. Continuing until or i should say into next year. Inflation taxes and interest rates are a concern but the outlook says they appear very unlikely to douse the economic recovery or to alter our preferences for defensive and growth oriented stocks. That's according to again. The wells fargo investment institute. Pretty interesting yeah. It is and i think investors should take note of something like that because the news. You know if you don't follow this in-depth if you don't follow it with a long term perspective and you don't keep those things in mind when you hear the news you're likely to fall victim to my clients. All the time are calling me worried about inflation worried about interest rates rising and yet the fed over and over and over and over again says there will not be need to raise interest rates until two thousand twenty three. Now let's see what j. paul says today will vary from that if he does. There could be a market pullback. I don't think it would be major. But there could be. But i don't think he'll vary from that i think he's going to parse his words very carefully agreed the what about the art of the taper as we discussed yesterday. Do you expect him. To actually bring that up that coming tapering of its bond buying program. He may mention it but remember what we said yesterday. And this you know when you when you see how the general media reacts to this as superficial is that will be. Remember the in-depth briefing. We gave you yesterday as a result of a listener Question i got from gentlemen. Tim north If he may well mentioned that tapering the bond buying program twenty billion dollars. A month is in the future but they couldn't even start it until late this year and it would take months and months.
"fargo investment institute" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"I'm John Tucker that he's your Bloomberg business. Flash Paul John Tucker. Thank you so much. We appreciate that, as always. We're about halfway through this earning season, another big week this week, and it's coming in very strong, and that's what this market needed. Let's see how some strategists are thinking about that. Scott Red. He's a senior global market strategist for Wells Fargo Investment Institute. Scott Thanks so much for joining us here. You know, there was a strong argument to be made that this first quarter warning earning season really had to come in strong to justify the valuation in this marketplace. Do you think corporate America has come through so far? Well, I really do, Paul. But I tell you, I think really, the way I look at most earning season, and even this one is, you know this is more of a confirmation process. I mean, it's the last thing that happens in the entire earnings processes. It's it's reported to the streets so the street expected Good earnings growth. We've certainly had that We know we're going to get some really good economic growth here. So this is more of Ah, confirmation step in my mind, but certainly this has been a really good earning season. I always looked at this from two different angles on the one hand, Scott, you know, companies are doing great. They're bouncing back from to be fair, You know, pretty low base effects. On the other hand, analysts got it wrong. They undervalued are underbid These companies earnings reports, nearly 90% of S and P 500 firms beat estimates. What are the analyst doing Something wrong? Are they not updating their expectations? Are they You know, working from home? What's the story? Well, I tell you, man, this is my bias. I think there's a strategist is a lot of times individual company analysts, you know, there are really glued to company guidance. And if you think back what's happened over the last year on and really in a lot of running seasons, you know these. These companies air are very cautious. They don't want to give a very aggressive outlook. You know, that's why 65 or 70% in any earning season. Season beat but that that's the situation that guidance is very conservative. We know from economists and certainly are economists that we that we talked to with our group are expecting big things. But these companies aren't going to go out on a limb too far. And then the analysts become really glued to that guidance, and therefore you know their way under what the actual results would be, too, so it's kind of an odd sort of a circle. But it happens with such regularity that when you have something like this pandemic, it gets even worse. All right, Scott, so we've seen you know the rotation traded the cyclical stocks even into smaller cap stocks. A Zwelling really performed well, almost almost for a year. Now, what's your take on that allocation or or that moving in that side of the market versus maybe the more traditional Growth areas where you kind of focused right now. Well, I will say that in this particular cycle, our view is it growth is going to not fade relative to value as as much as maybe a normal sex cycle now saying that, you know we're in a cycle. We're in a new cycle that at least we believe we are where the stock market's likely to see some some some multi year gains here, Um You know small caps as people are more willing to take on risk. You know, they're going to buy value. They're going to buy small caps that certainly what's happened so we're you know, we're leaning into small caps. We like you. Industrials materials, financials, those kinds of things. So So while all these cycles are different, and this one you know is this was the last one. You know, some of these recurring themes that you see value does well, small caps do well, things like that cyclicals do Wells. The economy comes out of the hole. You know these things hold through, even in this cycle, so we're leaning toward We want our clients to be assertive. We want them to be leaning towards a continuation of this recovery, not just here, but also abroad. We think Europe will catch up after they get their act together with this vaccine, and you know, we like those areas and I think, at least um, you know, for the intermediate term it's going to remain like that. I got my appointment. By the way, Lugo Big announcement may 18th because I'll tell you why. Because you're a bomb. Germany counts I live in Berlin because Germany counts journalists among the third group that gets priority. Brett prioritized. We're now kicking off so I could go to the press conference. Look, Pilots thought as Congress is already making. Thank you, Matt. You are a cent. You are essential man. That thank any. Thank you so so much. I feel sort of essential. Yeah, e feel pretty essential. In any case. I was just thinking, you know, Scott, you've been saying this for a while that the U. S economy is going to bounce back strong. Everyone knows It's red hot as Warren Buffett said, But you know, you don't know if we're gonna get a strong bounce back. Necessarily in Europe, is it? Is it a good time to go? Bargain hunting to go? Look for You know the bounce back that is going to come. Well, I think as far as the globe goes, you know, we were also overweight, favorable on emerging markets. You know, China, China, Taiwan, South Korea. They've done well, Um, I think you know they appear to have you know their vaccine act together, so to speak, Certainly global trades. Pretty good, but we have not been favorable on developed international, which would include include, You know, obviously the eurozone, the EU, Japan, those types of countries so We don't think it's time yet, but but certainly it's something that we talked about every week in the investment strategy committee, But as far as international goes right now, we want to lean more toward toward emerging markets. Scott. Thanks so much for joining us Senior Global market strategists are in the fourth group, by the way, so you'll be able to get your vaccine if you come.
"fargo investment institute" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"But it does have this sort of level of effectiveness. How difficult is distribution? What do you know about this particular vaccine? Because we've heard for some, they have to be sorted very, very cold temperatures, for example. Yeah, distribution on this, And just the logistics are going to be a major challenge for this vaccine in some of the others. What we've heard is that the temperatures required to maintain this is all about a negative 100 Celsius. Which means that most conventional freezer will not work. It's gonna take deep freezers that have. Unfortunately, they're prone to break down another things. Plus, they're just experience extremely expensive. Another major issue is going to be a vaccine wasted, and I'm sure you're gonna hear that term in the future, which is that in a normal for a standard vaccine. Up to about a quarter of all the vaccine that's manufactured can't be used because that cold chain Went off, which is a fancy way of saying that it's boiled. And so that's going to be a big problem with the vaccine that requires a negative 100 degrees Celsius storage. So it feels like only yesterday We were talking about personal protective equipment, in fact, that we don't have enough of it. Ventilators. We don't have enough of them in the United States. Do we have enough of those deep freezers in here? We're gonna have a bottleneck here just in manufacturing enough capacity to distribute before you get to actually the logistics of it. I would imagine that we are and there's there are basically two problems. One is that there's going to be a big rush for these deep freezers or for alternative. For example, liquid nitrogen might end up being utilized. They're at least we have capacity but for industrial purposes, But again, we we haven't distributed and used it in this way before so barren quantity, challenges in training and having the material. The other problem again is that when you talk about, for example, returning to deep freezers they have because they have to work so hard. The compressor is on. These things have to work so hard. They tend to fail very frequently and a failed freezer. Means that the vaccine and it could be ruined. So we're going to run into these challenges. There will be occasional setbacks, but overall will continue to move forward. This was so terribly helpful. Thank you for spending your time, particularly today really informed us all. I think quite a bit. That's Michael Kinch of Washington University in ST Louis. Thank you, Doctor. Now turn to the remarkable markets movement today. We welcome now Paul Christopher, head of global market strategy at Wells Fargo Investment suit, So thank you for being with us. We just heard from, Dr Kim said. We shouldn't get too excited about this, but it looks like the markets are off to the races. Ball. That's right. The markets have reacted any time in the last six months that we've had positive news on a vaccine. And this is perhaps the most positive news yet, But as you heard the doctor mentioned, there are some logistical issues here, not only keeping the virus very cold, but the distribution. We also don't know what the side effects may be. How many people might differ from taking the vaccine? Because they're afraid of side effects. We don't know that how that contributes to herd immunity. Thes air still unknowns, but fortunately we still have economic and market sentiment, taking support from alternatives to a silver bullet vaccine, including things like cross immunity from other vaccines and more rapid testing and tracing to reduce transmission. So you put that together. With the news that began to emerge last week about a potential potentially divided government on the markets have two things to really run within a rally here. Well, that's the question. What are they pricing at this point? Are they overpricing? In fact, on both scores both the election of President Biden with apparently at least a divided Senate. A cz? Well, is this vaccine are we getting too far ahead of us is? Are we hoping ourselves to success here? Well, if you remember 2016 and the election, then was also a surprise and markets ran hard for several months before coming back down to Earth and recognizing that Political agendas take time to develop. There's opposition. Things don't get done quite as fast as one thinks they will sow the pricing that happens after an election can tend To be, Let's say a little bit too extrapolating. We still like certain trends that we believe will still be in place over the coming months in and we think investors, especially investors with cash should be looking to put that cash to work incrementally. Not ignoring what's going on here. But certainly not throwing all the chips in right now is prices rise. We think a gradual, incremental approach to inputting cash to work. We like the U s better than overseas. We like us, large and midcaps better than small caps. We like the tech related sectors. There's still quite a cove. It sort of stay at home trade going on with in attack Information technology communication services. Ah, consumer discretionary something cos that deliver products to your door that you order from on online and we like healthcare. And frankly, a lot of those trends could be helped by the political environment. For example, take Take a divided government. You might not see quite the rush to regulate tech and social media going forward. That helped tech here you might see more work on vaccines going forward. That's going to help healthcare. Health care is also going to be helped, if divided government means that the two parties can't quite come to Ah, away to Ah change the managed care industry and that uncertainty being eliminated or at least reduced. Would certainly help manage care. So we already have a lot of the favorites that we think the market will benefit benefit in the market over the coming months, But we wouldn't rush to put cash to work here. Let's do it in a disciplined and incremental way. Okay, so in a disciplined incrementally, let's talk about a couple of other sectors travel and leisure because travel stocks really are shooting up today, including as I understand it, Cruise lines, things like that, and also banks. The banks stand potentially to benefit here. Potentially. I mean, if the idea is that banks may not be as regulated going forward or if economic growth improves enough that the U curve could step in their long term rates could rise. And give banks a break in terms of lending rates than that could help banks. But that one seems premature. Also, the travel and leisure seems a little bit premature to us. That's again an extrapolation based on what results we've seen in the last week from the election, but we're still a long way from from being able to go back to normal on. That's not even a political question. That's a covert question. It's a scientific Biological question that so far has resisted our best attempts at defeating and then we think Cove. It's going to be with us for some time further. Paul finally spent a minute on bonds here We talk about bombs, we talking equities practice. There was a time that boy the yield was just so low that it just didn't make any sense, even to use it for a hedge. It's really shot up were of what tough, almost 13 basis points right now. On the 10 year. Sure, again, you know rates like stocks might have a shorter term reaction related to the vaccine and news, perhaps on certainly related to the political news, especially if the market thinks that growth will be the outcome. 12 months from now, then rates could be higher, or we're going to maintain a kind of Ah An unbiased view neutral view on rates we withhold along and me intermediate term rate bonds. Uh, close to long term target allocation levels were just not persuaded yet that we've got a sustainable move higher. In in the slope of the curve. Okay. Paul was terribly helpful. Thank you so much for being with us. It's Paul Christopher. He's head of global market strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. Coming up Governor Phil Murphy of New Jersey gives us his views.
"fargo investment institute" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"$42.87. And the officer. Chinese currency now is at 6.8492 against the U. S. Dollars. Just looking at trading here. Looks like another down day in the Asia Pacific. All right, coming up on 19 minutes past the hour. Let's get a news update. Here's Mark Mills. In the Bloomberg News remark. Brian Joe Biden delivered an impassioned rebuttal Monday to Donald Trump's convention acceptance speech that portrayed him as a socialist who is soft on crime. Reminding voters of his 47 year record in public life. US Corona virus cases stopped six million in the most recent reading without brakes accelerating on college campuses. Arizona recorded the smallest one day increase in cases since May, and California's infection rate fell to the lowest since June. New York City's indoor dining will remain shut as neighboring New Jersey's is set to open starting Friday, along with the state's movie theaters, China's foreign minister warned that a top check lawmaker would pay a heavy price. For leading a 90 member delegation visiting Taiwan, according to exposing continued tensions with Europe. Chinese authorities have detained on Australian television anchor working with a government run station. As relations worsen between the nations over trade and security issues, Global news 24 hours a day on air and on quick take by Bloomberg, powered by more than 2700, journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. I'm Mark Mills, This is Bloomberg. Paul All right. Thanks very much. Mike Guest for the half hours. Tracy McMillian, She's head of global asset allocation strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute and Tracy underdogs. I came to talk about the increasingly torturers pass off tick talk, but I just want to get one more thought from you if I can on the zoom Of course, performing incredibly well during the pandemic, But I do wonder if we reached the top of resume. Eventually there's going to be a vaccine. Is this perhaps a good time to think about getting short? Sure. So you know it is. It is a good time. We think to re balance out of some of these winning names, and I don't know necessarily. If you want to go short just at we will. Get a vaccine one day, but this pandemic could continue Teo on, you know, cause these stay at home stock to continue to perform relatively well. And we could also see more implementation in our day to day. You know whether it's our personal lives are business lives of the technologies that we come to depend on enduring this pandemic. I'm curious to get your take on not only tick talk and how this may play out, but what it says right now. The battle for this the U. S operations of this company what it says about the U. S. China relations. And I'm curious as to whether or not you're really concerned about whether or not things could potentially get worse than they already are. Well, things could always get worse. It's not our base case that things are going to deteriorate much from here, but I think in this case It was a surprise over the weekend that he would need a license from the Chinese government, and it was seen as a very attractive as that added, attractive price. And so you know, any slow down or road block is a worry for investors. And then as you mentioned kind of broaden that out. He's that indicative of deteriorating relations between the US and China More broadly and again, you know, we think that it's going to be a relationship that is Is going to be having ups and downs and that we don't necessarily see further deterioration. But it's it's not. It's not. Uh, as you know, a very positive relationship Right now. It is experiencing one of those downs as you describe. But you can't argue against the fact that the recovery seems to be gathering some pace and China at the moment, So if you set aside all the politics, you see any opportunities there So we actually see more opportunities in the U. S right now will leave look more broadly at the indices for emerging markets versus the indices for the U. S. You know, One of our favorite things to work out is the equity risk premium and if you compare the earnings to the price and then tracked out the 10 year yield US versus 20 Year average is looking more attractive now than then emerging markets and so we we would prefer us over international in general. And within the U. S. We like large and mid caps over small caps Right now, that would be the positioning. We'd recommend. It's kind of very interesting over the weekend here. What Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has decided to do taking stakes in five Japanese trading companies. Seems like Mr Buffett sees value in Japan very quickly. Would you agree? Definitely seems like he is finding value there. And, you know, perhaps he's just seeing the differential between yield here in the U. S. And in countries like Japan or the eurozone has had narrowed so much and with all be stepping down. It could be an opportunity here, and I think he's Taking advantage of that. Just a few seconds left. Try, See? Do you see any opportunity in Japan? That you like it the moment? So we don't specifically target means within individual countries. But right now again developed markets are underweight relative to us for our portfolios. All right. Tracy McMillian, head of global asset allocation strategy of Wells Fargo Investment Institute. Thanks so.
We need to change our economic indicators to keep up with the crisis
"Know once you get past the scale of the job losses with the latest numbers on first time claims for unemployment. They came out this morning putting the total at just under twenty seven million people who've lost their jobs once you get past that scale it is the speed. That's amazing. Twenty seven million jobs vaporized in five weeks which poses a challenge for those of us who observe analyze this economy accustomed as we are to quarterly and monthly data. Being good enough. So economists are getting creative. Marketplace's refinish war gets is going. The great recession played out gradually over eighteen months. What's happening today's instead of playing out of a months and years playing out of days and weeks. Justin Wolfer is a professor of economics at University of Michigan our friends. Gdp and the unemployment rate are reported once a month once a quarter but we need is economic indicators. To tell us what's happening today. Andrew Chamberlain is chief economist at glass door. He says luckily we live in an age of data. We have really different ways of measuring the economy today than we have a decade ago tech platform social media specialized firms have all kinds of useful real time. Data take for example would job search platforms can tell us you've got Twenty million unemployed Americans. You Might WanNa know whether they are all expecting to go back to work or not You might want to know if they're out there searching for jobs or not. The Federal Reserve looks at data from credit card processors to know how people are spending and payroll processing from. Adp to track jobs. Both of those come out. Weekly Ben Hur's on is an economist with IHS market the TSA started making available The public passenger traffic At airports on a daily basis in real time. And so we could see that passenger traffic at us. Airports had fallen like ninety five percent by the end of March. Weekly chain store sales. Tell us about spending electricity. Use can be a proxy for economic output. As for what exactly it's all telling US Gary Schlossberg is global market strategist with the wells. Fargo Investment Institute. They still show the economy continuing to decline. But there are a couple which are beginning to bottom out a little bit you know. There's some hope straws in that the economy is still weakening but approaching about whatever the indicator once you hit bottom. There's nowhere to go but up
What's causing volatility in the stock market?
"Here is what I would like you to do today as we get going unfocused your eyes if you would figuratively of course like you do when you drop something or your pattern rug and how that can help you find what you're looking for. Do the same for me now. With the admittedly nutty stock market gyrations the past couple of weeks ups and downs of three or four five percent or more focused not on the actual movements but on the underlying phenomenon the volatility marketplace's got tongue explains why it's happening and what it tells us by one. Measure stocks have not been this volatile since the financial crisis a decade ago. Surely it's the fear of Corona virus but for traders addicted data. There's not enough of it. How long will the outbreak last are the Chinese factories back? How was hit company? Earnings at Charles Schwab one of our underwriters. Strategist Liz end. Sandra says many companies have gone silence. They're just saying we're not even giving guidance because we have no idea what is going to happen so in terms of how Wall Street kind of prices stocks and markets analysts. You know have their hands in the air. Then there's election year uncertainty as the market swings based on which candidate is up the moment now when markets struggled to predict the future. Which is their job. They gyrate according to George Perks. Bespoke investment group. He says it can go like this. When investors sell and expect the worst a little ray of hope can change everything if every piece of news is bad for awhile. Expectations come down and so now that expectations are down. It doesn't take much good news for everything flip in reverse often. It's consumer stocks doing the Bungee up and down. That's because consumption is the big unknown now says Scott Wren at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute. What are it's apparel devices online? Entertainment streaming if consumers are more willing to spend money on that because they're less fearful of catching the virus Then those who tended to do better mud finding specific causes of volatility only gets a so far. The market's a big complicated place. Study suggests long periods of calm somehow lead to volatility in the markets bounce up and down the more. They get driven by emotion. I'm Scott Tong for
"fargo investment institute" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"This is here Bloomberg realistic report under the spell greenie the housing market isn't living up to its economic potential that's according to Steven Stanley chief economist at Amherst Pierpont you know a bit surprising given how strong the consumer as people are you know how so formation has picked up and yet we're not building the homes to fulfill that demand but Darryl counties president and CIO at Wells Fargo investment institute says falling mortgage rates may spark sales this month at least a bit you would expect a little bit of a lift back or revision back perhaps in August overall the housing market still I think remains relatively strong although a little bit pricey Stanley meantime says builders are still nervous and don't feel the wind is at their back after a grueling financial crisis those rising land costs and labor shortages and he says changing tastes are also a factor more people are interested in apartments or condos perhaps rather than the typical single family home with a picket fence in the yard and that is your Bloomberg realistic part I'm Denise Pellegrini Hey y'all Jeff Foxworthy here now if you ever found yourself repeating the same thing over and over for seventy five years you might be Smokey bear only you can prevent wildfires that's why I'm filling in for Smokey to switch things up because there's a lot more to say and I should know because my grandfather was a fire fight and one of the things he taught me is that the people that love the outdoors the most are often the ones accidentally starting wildfires which means always B. Y. O. B. no bring your own bucket to the campfire and be extra careful with things like burning yard trimmings don't just walk.
Worries of longer, costlier US-China trade war hits markets
"It could be another ten stay for investors as the US and China Diggin for what's looking like an extended trade war the stock market took a sharp dive yesterday after China allowed its currency to fall to its lowest levels in eleven years the trump administration responded last night by formally labeling China a currency manipulator here's NPR Scott Horsley Monday's selloff was the worst the Wall Street as seen all year the Dow Jones industrial average tumbled seven hundred sixty seven points or two point nine percent the S. and P. five hundred was also down about three percent and the nasdaq was down nearly three and a half percent by labeling China a currency manipulator treasury secretary Stephen the notion is vowing to work with the International Monetary Fund to combat what the administration calls China's unfair trading advantage Jack album of crescent capital says what really spooked investors more than China's currency move is the signal that both sides in the trade war are bracing for a long battle faster who had anticipated that president xi and president trump would shake hands and reach some kind of agreement by year Randy this probably scratching that scenario off there blackboard trade battles and the resulting uncertainty have already taken a toll on the U. S. manufacturing sector and there are signs the much larger services side of the economy is slowing down as well that's one reason the federal reserve cut interest rates last week but investors many of whom wanted a pledge of additional rate cuts were not reassured Monday's losses compounded last week stocks lied when the major indexes fell two and a half to three percent Paul Christopher who heads global market strategy for the Wells Fargo investment institute does not believe a recession is imminent consumer spending and corporate profits are still pretty healthy still Christopher says investors should buckle up for what could be a bumpy ride there's no reason to panic here earnings growth is still positive what you are going to have good days and bad days where the fed and greater concern yesterday was one of the bad days so investors are likely to be a little on edge when
US officially labels China a 'currency manipulator'
"It could be another ten stay for investors as the US and China Diggin for what's looking like an extended trade war the stock market took a sharp dive yesterday after China allowed its currency to fall to its lowest levels in eleven years the trump administration responded last night by formally labeling China a currency manipulator here's NPR Scott Horsley Monday's selloff was the worst the Wall Street is seen all year the Dow Jones industrial average tumbled seven hundred sixty seven points or two point nine percent the S. and P. five hundred was also down about three percent and the nasdaq was down nearly three and a half percent by labeling China a currency manipulator treasury secretary Stephen the notion is vowing to work with the International Monetary Fund to combat what the administration calls China's unfair trading advantage Jack album of crescent capital says what really spooked investors more than China's currency move is the signal that both sides in the trade war are bracing for a long battle faster who had anticipated that president xi and president trump would shake hands and reach some kind of agreement by year Randy this probably scratching that scenario off there blackboard trade battles and the resulting uncertainty have already taken a toll on the U. S. manufacturing sector and there are signs the much larger services side the economy is slowing down as well that's one reason the federal reserve cut interest rates last week but investors many of whom wanted a pledge of additional rate cuts were not reassured Monday's losses compounded last week stocks lied when the major indexes fell two and a half to three percent Paul Christopher who heads global market strategy for the Wells Fargo investment institute does not believe a recession is imminent consumer spending and corporate profits are still pretty healthy still Christopher says investors should buckle up for what could be a bumpy ride there's no reason to panic year earnings growth is still positive what you are going to have good days and bad days where the fed and greater concern yesterday was one of the bad days so investors are likely to be a little on edge when the market reopens this
"fargo investment institute" Discussed on 106.1 FM WTKK
"So they're excited and the injuries are pretty significant and where they were talking about brain bleeding possibly so Michelle Malkin tour credits started to go find me he's got a take a raise to it so it's over a hundred thousand already so that's why I'm trying to line Ross up for at a windfall a hundred thousand is at your firm number no it's negligible okay yeah that's what I like to see flexibility right there so all right so yeah will will definitely be touched on that because that's just as bad as it comes and between that a restaurant encounters the North Korea visit by Donald Trump I everyone's gonna be weighed each other's throats and it's only Monday all plus they got they enforce they thank yep poor Dan forest as sitting there speaking to a church full of people they got him they have they've uncovered a vine covered the the monster underneath it's weird though because if you play the whole cut it's almost as if he's arguing the opposite of what they're saying is arguing in the first cut all playing both for you because I think that's the honest thing to do so will have that on the way but first year Bloomberg minute being brought to you by Hendrix business systems this is a Bloomberg market Bennett stocks advanced in cautious trading ahead of president trump's trade meeting with Chinese president xi the key indexes had advances ranging from three tenths to six tenths percent the Dow Jones industrials rose seventy three points the nasdaq gained thirty eight the S. and P. five hundred close seventeen points higher the S. and P. gained nearly seven percent for the month of June Scott ran of the Wells Fargo investment institute says there is a lot of optimism about this weekend's talks I don't think you'd be seeing the S. and P. five hundred trade up over twenty nine hundred if the market was not pricing and some trade negotiation positive consumer sentiment ease this month after hitting an eight month high in may the university of Michigan sentiment index fell nearly two points in June Bloomberg reports quest nutrition may put itself up for sale sources say the protein bar maker is working with financial advisors to seek offers the crude oil futures fell to fifty eight dollars and forty seven cents a barrel Jeff Ballenger Bloomberg radio and how would a proper first segment set up be if I didn't read my favorite headline of the day to tease that forward HM man learns the hard way mixing puffer fish and cocaine is a horrible idea see if you just laugh here that don't yeah that exciting slowdown Belushi yeah yeah you know this is going to end well and it doesn't and it's in Florida yeah you guessed it so all that more coming up hang on they come.
Wells Fargo, Scott And Twenty Nine Hundred Dollars discussed on Bloomberg Finance
"Stock investors have been an -ticipant in a breakthrough in traits, as Scott. Senior global equity strategist at Wells Fargo investment institute. But don't think he'd be seeing the some five hundred trade up over twenty nine hundred dollars are twenty nine hundred if the market was not pricing in some trade negotiation positives. He s and p five hundred was last quoted at twenty nine forty one investors will be watching for any movement with the trade truce and stocks could decline. Some analysts say if investors who've been pressing in a trade truce sell on the
"fargo investment institute" Discussed on 90.3 KAZU
"Journalism on the radio. Not to throw too many numbers at people all at once. It's real we try to follow pretty strictly around here today being a notable, a rare, and a regrettable exception. Because the macro economic news of this Monday is brought to us by two numbers to thirty two. That's the relevant section of the trade expansion act of nineteen sixty two that we're going to be talking about and section three. Oh, one of the Trade Act of nineteen seventy four. Now, why start with numbers guy? Well, because President Trump as you might be aware talking about putting more tariffs on more Chinese goods, and it occurred to us that this might be a good day for a where things stand in the trade war update. Sameeh canes is the US economics editor at the economist. Welcome to the program. Thank you having me. So I gave the primer up there onto. Thirty two and three a one in what they are. And I guess the reason we got you on the phone is you can explain the state of play. Let's take the two thirty two steel and aluminum tariffs. I if we could wear to stand with those, well, they're in place, we have tariffs on steel tariffs on minium in theory. Some of them was supposed to come off the hats off to the US MCA the new agreement with Mexico and Canada after that was agreed. But it doesn't look like a huge amount of progress in those discussions as they're in effect. And that's fairly good evidence that American consumers up paying move steel non minium as a result. There have been some smack them. Studies showing exactly that and these are in effect now on Canadians on European Union on Mexico, traditionally our allies in global trade, right? Indeed. And that's what makes him so strange because these section to thirty two types as supposed to be in the name of national security. It does seem all. That America has decided that imports from its allies are a threat to its national security in effect. Okay. So to the ones that the president has been tweeting about the past day and a half or whatever they're called section three. Oh one, and they are all about unfair trade practices, and there have been several tranches of these several slices. Indeed, so much fun for us trade. But roughly you can put them into two bucket. The bucket the tire around twenty five percent, and in theory that will need special high-tech goods, the US is is targeting because China has these plans to specialize in these high tech goods, and and the US doesn't like that. The second bucket is on around two hundred billion dollars worth of imports from China that the types are love that ten percent. And it's this bucket that the president has just threatened to increase the tire. So to raise that tire from ten percent twenty five percent, and he's also talking. So this is about half of what we import from the Chinese. He's also talking about tariffing another three hundred billion dollars worth of stuff. In other words, almost everything that we import pretty much yet. And I think that sounds alarming, and it is it's a lot of stuff. One thing to say is that it's it's unlikely that those types could happen overnight. There's some chance that maybe they'll reach a deal before that actually goes into effect very quick follow on question. And then I'll let you go before we get to four down in the weeds on this stuff. And it goes like this the president has been unpredictable to be charitable with his trade policy. Pronouncements the market clearly after an early morning freak out about this has decided maybe it's not so bad. What do you believe based on your reporting the that this actually happens on Friday? Oh. The thing. I was really watching for today was whether the Chinese delegation was going to to come on on Wednesday to it. Now looks like they ought going to come in which case that will be around if negotiations, and it is I think still fairly likely that there is some agreement by the end of the week that said predicting the president is going to do is is a fool's errand. And so I could well be Somme gains. She's the US economics editor at the economist. Thanks a lot. Really? Appreciate it. Thanks so much. Having me Wall Street as I alluded to pretty much took the president's threats in stride. At least by the close in China. There was no striding. The Shanghai composite index was off more than five percent today. The UN the Chinese currency got clobbered, and as a result as marketplace's Scott Tong reports of all of this Chinese tariffs stuff. Chinese leaders find themselves in a tough position in China. The terror threat from Washington came on the hundred anniversary of foreigners pushing China around. The nineteen nineteen treaty of granted Japanese control over a chunk of Chinese territory. Bad time for president Xi Jinping to look weak before a home crowd. Susan sure has the twenty first century China center at UC San Diego trick for Xi Jinping is to make these bold structural changes. Without looking like, he's just caving in President Trump has made that very hard for him. It's a delicate moment for China. The economy has slowed in recent years, and trade war made it worse today. Central bankers in Beijing made it easier to borrow to offset the tariff threat analyst, Peter Doni, signing what the Wells Fargo investment institute says in this two way, trade war tariffs hurt, China more. So that does naturally make China more exposed to anything that would reduce the amount of trade or exports than the US economy. Still Chinese leaders have something going for them a rising nationalism in anti-trump sentence. Says Cheung Lee at the Brookings Institution. Media in two thousand seventeen actually quite Paul about Donald Trump. But now the public opinion not to change they dollar think President Donald Trump is greedy or even cleaning trending post in Chinese social media blends an image of Trump within the avengers movie super villain on a day. When trade news was censored and Chinese official media. This was not I'm Scott Tong for marketplace. Despite President Trump's persistent misrepresentations about this. These tariffs are being paid by American consumers, and yet overall inflation in this economy is pretty tame. So if and granted it's still an if these the president bumps these terraces promised for expands them, virtually all Chinese imports might we then see some inflation. We asked marketplace's Justin ho to look into that one. Here's the good news. We just don't spend that much money on imports says economists Sarah house at Wells Fargo, but the end of the day about two-thirds. Of consumer spending on services, which we import very little of and are not subject to these terrorists healthcare. For instance, if the Trump administration imposed a twenty five percent tariff on all Chinese imports, the San Francisco fed recently estimated that would increase inflation by three tenths of a percent economics. Professor, Tim, Dewey at the university of Oregon's Americans will end up footing the Bill we know that the impact of terrorists will fall on producers and consumers consumers who pay more for imported refrigerators or certain types of furniture and producers who've already been dealing with the impact of existing tariffs on Chinese imports says Karen Kavanagh at voi- investment management companies have looked for alternative supply chains. They look to diversify their sources suppliers. A lot of producers might wind up eating the tariff hikes themselves. Sarah house Wells Fargo says it might be a while before consumers notice higher prices at WalMart or target retailers might already have prices locked in for certain ship. Moments that are coming up for the next few months houses, the impact of tariff hike would be short lived basically at one time expense. She says tariffs would only start nudging inflation upward if the US laps more of them on Chinese goods as dispute continues in New York. I'm just in how for marketplace. This whole on again off again, trade war thing can be messy and complicated. We know that. And it makes the time line that we put together making sense of it all pretty helpful. You can check it out. At are. We in a trade war dot com. Wall street. This Monday, really really terrible than down just tach. We'll have the details when we do the numbers..
"fargo investment institute" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"The census. Global news twenty four hours a day on air and tick tock on Twitter. I'm Bob moon. Thank you. Bob CBS has suspended its search for a new CEO. It says acting CEO Joseph has agreed to stay on through the end of the US. Stocks closed at records. Thanks to better than forecast, earnings Donner strengthened treasury yields dipped George Rusnak is co head of global fixed income at Wells Fargo investment institute at that. We've seen a fair amount going to fixed income going to the equity markets. We like them here. We just think you've had a great run pull back just a little bit, right? Both in the equity market from an asset allocation perspective, just slightly. Well, I think there's some pretty good opportunities actually get a little bit more neutral on yield curve, right here and Jose Rasco is senior investment strategist at HSBC investments USA and improving Konami after one is going to be week. We think one point six percent for average about two and a quarter of the rest of the year. And then earnings have to improve as for the broader market backdrop, Barry James is CEO of James capital lines. He was our guest on daybreak Asia. Tax cuts of the magnitude that we had last year the last four years and years and years it from an earning standpoint, it may not seem so this year. But generally speaking the economy does very well for the following three to five years and break Asia kicks off twenty nine minutes from now Texas Instruments delivered an upbeat forecast for second quarter sales and profit bolstering optimism that the electronics industry is starting to emerge from a slide in demand snap reported first-quarter results that exceeded already high expectations. The Dow higher s&p NASDAQ also advancing both at records S and P five hundred index up twenty five points a gain of nine tenths of one percent. Nasdaq one hundred five up one point three percent also a record Dow Jones industrial average of one hundred forty five points up six tenths of one percent. I'm Charlie Pellett. That's a Bloomberg business flash. Bloomberg best with June Grasso. And Ed Baxter continues. Broadcasting.
"fargo investment institute" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"I'm Evan Haning. I'm susanna. Palmer from Bloomberg world headquarters. Investors have been heading for safety in the bond market after speculation. The next move by the Federal Reserve might be an interest rate cut and this month's version of the three month and ten year yield curves. Too far too fast says George Rusnak with the Wells Fargo investment institute right now, it's fifty percent expectation that they're going to do to cut by your end think that's far for us. So yes, long-term rates are coming down. But short term they might have gone down a little bit too far. The buying has driven. The yield on the ten year note down to two point four zero percent, Bloomberg has learned a PSA group and Chrysler automobiles are exploring a partnership to share investments to build cars in Europe. The to have been holding preliminary discussions to collaborate on a super platform, the basic beginnings of a car model this reduce their investment costs in the super competitive region. This week in the UK the house of Commons failed yet again to agree on how to leave the European Union on Monday, UK's, parliament takes up votes on Brexit proposals. As members seek a compromise to break the impasse conservative member of parliament. Andrea let's end believes in both the divorce from the EU and in British Prime Minister Theresa May's ability to come up with a workable solution. I think what we have to do is to make sure that we deliver on the will of the people at the referendum. We have to keep trying. That's what people voted for. And I'm quite sure that that's what the prime minister continues to be determined to deliver. Make is sick. And so the Rolling Stones have postponed their upcoming tour of the US and Canada. His after Mick Jagger was advised by doctors that he requires treatment for a medical issue and can't hit the road. Just now the medical issue was not named global news twenty four hours a day on air and at ticked tock on Twitter, powered by more than twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts in more than one hundred twenty countries. I'm Susanna Palmer. This is Bloomberg..
"fargo investment institute" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"By Prime Minister, Theresa may opposition leader. Jeremy Corbyn calls for a general election. The EU prepares for a heartbreak said all options are back on the table. Still two votes left this week tomorrow on the next most of the globe that flies a Boeing seven thirty-seven max eight now grounding them, including the major government's in Asia. New Zealand has just added its name to the list, the US stands almost isolated and continuing to let them fly. And the FAA has again said that it finds no basis to ground that plane Indonesia's lion air. Meanwhile, says it plans to drop a twenty two billion dollar order for the max and switch to rival aircraft for Airbus s e Donald Trump's tweeted airplanes are becoming far too complex to fly. Often older, and simpler is far better. Dozens arrested Nevada's plot to let children of some wealthy parents admitted to elite colleges including Yale Stanford UCLA, Georgetown, the US is pulling all personnel from the Venezuelan embassy US Senator Ted Cruz has retweeted a center Elizabeth Warren criticism of Facebook ringing, two wings of different parties to agree on at least one thing. Anger at Facebook. China says a navy fighter jet crashed during a training mission off off of a high non killing both pilots caused under investigation. Global news twenty four hours a day on Aaron a tick tock on Twitter powered by more than twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts in more than one hundred twenty countries in San Francisco, I'm Ed Baxter. This is Bloomberg. Okay. All right. Let's get back to our conversation. With Paul Christopher is head of global market strategy at the Wells Fargo investment institute. Paul a question before was about the dollar. Now, we pulled back for the last couple of days here, but we had been on a quite a tear recently. Against the major currencies. If the fed remains on the sidelines right now, and the US kind of chugs along the current growth rate, the dollar treads water where does that leave EM? Well, yeah. E M is a little bit different case. We do not see the same slowdown in EM that we do see in Europe the growth cuts in Europe have been rather severe six tenths. Eight has presented some cases in in emerging markets. We think we'll get more like two tenths of a percent of growth decline, mainly because of trade probably with Europe. So we don't think that the EM slows that much, and therefore we don't think that EM currencies really suffer against the dollar this year. But the if there is risk. It would be as you suggest to the upside for the dollar. But maybe as ever can make up their minds as general consensus as a member of the dollar weakens. But that narrative putting mixing my metaphors is actually really good cracks surrounding it. Now is people looking at a guy in the other direction such as yourself. Yeah. It it is a problem in the current period. But again, as I as I said before the break, we we do think there is some extrapolation of current weakness going on we don't think that's that's going to be a reasonable expectation for markets going forward. We are looking for a rebound in the second half of the year that we think ultimately will deliver a weaker dollar. That's our base case. But again, the the risk would be to the upside of the US continues to plow ahead. I and the rest of the world weakens further. So few assume a portfolio with a model moderate level of risk. I mean, how should we be balanced right now debt to equity, and then more broadly speaking, how should we be portion globally? Good question. We we do like that closer that sixty forty strategic balance between stocks and bonds right now, we ourselves are neutral on equities right now, so holding strategic wage we want to emphasize to investors that's not a negative view on equity simply a neutral one. We do think there will be some volatility. We pulled some money off the top here ESP at twenty eight hundred we're looking to put that money back to work at sitting in cash right now. So we think this year at least for the first half perhaps a little longer than the first half could be a time when we have to rebalance more quickly and more often so evenly balanced between stocks and bonds, and we do like emerging market equities going forward here. Looking for twelve percent earnings growth this year versus seven percent of the SNP alone. So we do think there is growth up prospects overseas and emerging market having been taken more losses last year. Are we think they're in a better evaluation position as well? Imagine market. So it's a very broad brush. Isn't it? Ultimately Christopher so which ones. Well, we do like emerging Asia and like Latin America very much right now, we're a little bit less enthusiastic about the what you might think of as the eastern Europe and the Middle East markets. There are more connected with Europe Turkey, for example, Poland Czech Republic. But certainly Asia and Latin America should benefit from that stability in the Chinese economy and overall structural growth that we think is is going to drive the rest of Asia. Thank you very much. Indeed, bull Christopher. He's ahead of global muggy. Started Wells Fargo investment institute. This is quick look at what's been going on gold. Prices. People are the seeking a bit of a haven on the way up four tenths of one percent. You need thirteen hundred two dollars to buy yourself an ounce of the precious metal else west taking ahead off Theresa May's latest Brexit deal perhaps a final one was thrown out by the house of Commons. You need a hundred..
"fargo investment institute" Discussed on Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal
"Two thousand nineteen the dollar the greenback did pretty well against most other major currencies last year, but a lot of foreign exchange. Analysts are predicting a weaker dollar is on the way. Marketplace's Tracey Samuelson explains why the dollar might weaken, and what that might mean for American companies and consumers before we forget our old acquaintance twenty eighteen a quick look back. US economic growth was strong. Investors knew the Federal Reserve would continue raising interest rates widening the gap between interest rates in the US and the rest of the world. Scott ran is an equity strategist at the Wells Fargo investment institute, he says in two thousand nineteen the Fed's going to be not doing much Warren terms of of rate hikes while the rest of the world hasn't really started. Yet. Those higher rates money tends to flow to a higher rate type of an environment. As says, it's like that hockey metaphor investors want to go where the puck is heading not where it is now, which means the US dollar will that's much sink, but drift l-. Lower in two thousand nineteen not everyone agrees Seve Hanky is a professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins. He thinks the dollar will hold steady maybe even climb and that's because. Game. When you look at exchange rates and relative to Europe, the United States will look strong, relative to other countries to like, China, Brian Nick investment strategist at Nubian says the strong dollar has been good for US consumers who buy things with their dollars on the flip side of your business. And you're trying to sell overseas is stronger dollar is not your friend because when you're counting those profits back into dollars from whatever currency, you earn them in. They're worth less to you. So those companies will benefit from a slightly weaker US dollar Nick says on net. So we'll global economy a weaker dollar also benefits foreign countries and companies that have borrowed in dollars. I'm Tracey Samuelson for marketplace approach. We didn't plan it this way. Oh that we had. But after the close on Wall Street this afternoon apple announced it's cutting its earnings forecast for its most recent quarter, the one that ended in December. And here is what I'm telling you this first of all in line with Tracy story about the strong dollar apple. Said this. We knew the strong dollar would create foreign exchange headwinds and forecasted this would reduce our revenue growth, and of quote, which it has also to Scott story about China and its slowdown. Apple said this most of our revenue shortfall to our guidance and over one hundred percent of our year over year worldwide revenue decline occurred in greater China across iphone MAC and ipad end of quote, it's kind of wild right? We tell you about stuff, and there it is happening in real life on Wall Street today as I said, my favorite five syllable word vol till it t-. We'll have the details when we do the numbers. Lest you thought we've forgotten there is number five on the economic watchlist for this year. And it's spelled B R E X I T Prime Minister Theresa may has until January the fourteenth convinced parliament it should approve the deal. She made to take her country out of the European Union. The problem for MS as the most parliament hates that deal. But she does have not so secret weapon, which is that of parliament doesn't approve her plan. The default position is the Britain might leave the EU come the end of March without any deal at all. And as marketplace's Stephen beard reports that is unsettling a whole lot of Brits. The pulse of Dover on the southeast coast of Britain ten thousand trucks a day pass through hit to and from continental Europe without a trade deal by March the twenty ninth. Most of this traffic would have to be checked and nightmares as John James who runs the polls largest freight handling company stock cargo having a no Brexit in stopping on the twenty twenty ninth will be omega frost ham, opponents of Brexit of long wound of gridlock at the ports with massive delays. And Brexit is of long dismissed that as project fear is not project fit. It will become reality on that frightens all of us, including the UK government. It's put.
Consumer companies try price hikes as U.S. wages climb
"And a half years. Not a huge surprise, right? Unemployment is crazy. Low companies are complaining to anybody. Who will listen about how hard it is to find qualified workers and tight labor markets can lead to higher wages, but you know, what higher wages can lead to higher prices. And you know, who might have something to say about that. Well, the fed that's marketplace's Mitchell Hartman has promised has that one anything that raises employer's costs to make things or provide services can push up the prices. They charge consumers, for instance, higher fuel prices or tariffs or workers wages and Josh Gibbons at the Economic Policy Institute says today's jobs report shows that employers are grappling with higher labor costs were starting to finally see. The flywheel engage for wage increases. I've been surprised like everyone else that it's taken such a low unemployment rate to get there. Now, keep in mind. The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate to keep unemployment low and inflation in check the fed has already raised interest rates three times this year in part to prevent inflation from getting out of hand as the economy runs. Hot Gary Hoover at the university of Oklahoma worries that rising wages could lead the fed to raise rates higher. Sooner. Why be so quick to hit the button to cool things down that's not necessarily appropriate. At this point given is more catching up as opposed to searching ahead, but there are pitfalls if the fed waits too long to act says Samir Simona at the Wells Fargo investment institute, you risk letting me inflation genie out of the bottle in which case, then we need rate hikes at a much faster pace, which would likely slow the job market and squelch wage gains before. Workers have caught up after years of mediocre raises. I'm Mitchell Hartman for marketplace. It is a fact of
Trump's Chinese tariff announcement leads to huge stock market plunge
"Minute a different kind of march madness in the stock market triggered by tariffs the stock averages lost almost two and a half to three percent with the dow falling seven hundred twenty four points to just short of twenty three nine fifty eight the nasdaq dropped one hundred seventy nine the s and p six thirty eight the dow's big drop has the average on track for its worst march in seventeen years the snp saw its gains for the year disappear investor anxiety about a trade war took off as the trump administration announced fifty billion dollars worth of tariffs on chinese imports investors see a trade war ahead scott wren of the wells fargo investment institute is more optimistic hookers only very low probability of a trade war nike prophets stumbled last quarter on the us corporate tax cut but sales swooshed higher than targets investors like those results nike shares moved higher in post market trading i'm joan doniger bedford is talking about updated all day and all night wbz sm dot com.